Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for RAMON-23
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 261600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20E (RAMON) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20E (RAMON) WARNING NR 013
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 20E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 14.4N 123.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 123.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 14.2N 124.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 14.3N 125.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.6N 126.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
261600Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 124.0W.
26NOV23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20E (RAMON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1156 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 261200Z IS
1006 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 13 FEET.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 261441
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ramon Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
700 AM PST Sun Nov 26 2023

Ramon is producing some isolated deep convection to the north and
northeast of the center, but the system has lacked significant
thunderstorm activity for the last 12 hours or so. Therefore Ramon
is being designated as a remnant low at this time, and this is the
last advisory. The current intensity estimate is set at 30 kt
based on the assumption of a gradual spin down overnight. this is
also in agreement with satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB

Although the cyclone could still produce a few sporadic bursts of
showers and thunderstorms for the next day or so, strong westerly
shear on the order of 40 to 50 kt and dry low- to mid-tropospheric
air should preclude the redevelopment of significant, organized deep
convection. This is also consistent with simulated satellite
imagery from the global models that show little or no deep
convection associated with the system for the next few days. The
cyclone should continue to weaken, and dissipate in 48 hours or so.

A mainly westward track is likely to continue into early next week
while the cyclone moves within the near-surface tradewind flow.

For additional information on Ramon's remnant low please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 14.4N 123.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 27/0000Z 14.2N 124.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/1200Z 14.3N 125.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/0000Z 14.6N 126.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 261440
TCMEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023
1500 UTC SUN NOV 26 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 123.9W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 123.9W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 123.7W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.2N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.3N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.6N 126.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 123.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER PASCH




Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 261441
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ramon Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
700 AM PST Sun Nov 26 2023

...RAMON BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 123.9W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1750 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM PST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ramon
was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 123.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is forecast, and
the remnant low is likely to dissipate by late Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Pasch



Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 261000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 20E (RAMON) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20E (RAMON) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 14.4N 123.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 123.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 14.3N 123.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 14.4N 124.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 14.7N 125.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
261000Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 123.4W.
26NOV23. TROPICAL STORM 20E (RAMON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1146
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 260600Z IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
261600Z, 262200Z, 270400Z AND 271000Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 260835
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
100 AM PST Sun Nov 26 2023

Deep convection associated with Ramon became well separated from
the low-level center around the time of the previous advisory due
to strong westerly shear. Since that time, the cyclone has
been devoid of deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates have
decreased, and the initial intensity has been lowered to a possibly
generous 35 kt. That is in agreement with the latest Dvorak
Current Intensity (CI) number of 2.5 from TAFB. The vertical wind
shear over Ramon is already above 50 kt as diagnosed by the SHIPS
model, and it is expected to remain very strong during the next 48
hours. The shear in combination with an increasingly dry mid-level
environment should cause Ramon to quickly weaken during the next 24
to 36 hours. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS model does
not show any deep convection returning, and based on the latest
trends, the official forecast now calls for Ramon to degenerate into
a remnant low later today, and dissipate within 48 hours.

Ramon has taken a southwestward jog overnight, but it should begin
a more westward motion this morning as it comes under the influence
of a low-level ridge to the north. A westward to west-
northwestward motion should then continue for the next day or so
until dissipation occurs. The updated NHC track forecast has been
shifted south of the previous prediction primarily due to the more
southern initial position. The official track forecast is in best
agreement with the latest GFS and the TVCN consensus model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 14.4N 123.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 14.3N 123.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/0600Z 14.4N 124.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/1800Z 14.7N 125.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown



Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 260835
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ramon Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
100 AM PST Sun Nov 26 2023

...RAMON WEAKENS...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 123.4W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM PST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ramon was
located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 123.4 West. Ramon is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected to continue during the next
day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast and Ramon is expected to
degenerate into a remnant low later today. The remnant low is
forecast to dissipate by late Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 700 AM PST.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 260834
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM RAMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023
0900 UTC SUN NOV 26 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 123.4W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 123.4W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 123.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 14.3N 123.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.4N 124.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.7N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 123.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 260400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 20E (RAMON) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20E (RAMON) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 14.9N 122.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 122.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 14.8N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 14.9N 123.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.0N 123.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.7N 125.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
260400Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 122.7W.
26NOV23. TROPICAL STORM 20E (RAMON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1111
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 260000Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
261000Z, 261600Z, 262200Z AND 270400Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 260240
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
700 PM PST Sat Nov 25 2023

On geostationary satellite imagery, Ramon has taken on the
appearance of a highly sheared tropical cyclone, with bursts of deep
convection forming near the center that have continually been
stripped away. Despite this pattern, there is evidence that
upper-level divergence has aided in convective generation today,
with the GOES-18 mesoscale sector derived motions winds showing
250-350 mb flow fanning off in a V-shape pattern along the eastern
flank of the cyclone. A late arriving ASCAT-C pass received after
the prior advisory suggested that Ramon was a bit stronger than
previously estimated, with a fairly large swath of greater than 35
kt winds over its northern semicircle, though the highest values may
have been rain inflated. An AMSR2 microwave pass at 2152 UTC also
showed a prominent curved band on the 37 GHz channel along where
these highest winds were observed earlier on scatterometer. Based on
this information, the initial intensity is adjusted to 40 kt for
this advisory. This value is a little higher than the subjective
Dvorak estimates, but does match the most recent SATCON intensity
estimate from UW-CIMSS.

Ramon is already battling some very hostile westerly vertical wind
shear above 40 kt, and this is only forecast to increase further
over the next 12-24 hours. The divergent upper-level flow is also
forecast to quickly bypass the storm. Thus, the ongoing convection
is expected to fully detach from the low-level circulation later
tonight, and weakening should begin shortly. Ramon is still expected
to become a remnant low in a day or two, with the low opening up
into a trough not long beyond that. Aside from the short-term
intensity, the latest forecast is close to the previous one, and is
in good agreement with the consensus aids.

The ongoing convective bursts may have temporarily caused Ramon to
jog east this evening, though as the low-level circulation starts to
become detached, a slow westward drift may be starting, estimated at
260/1 kt. While the cyclone may continue to drift slowly tonight, by
tomorrow, a bit faster westward to west-northwestward motion should
begin as the cyclone is steered by a weak low-level ridge. The NHC
track forecast is a bit south and east of the previous one,
partially due to adjustments in the initial potion, but ends up
close to the prior track forecast in 36-48 h, close to the simple
and corrected consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 14.8N 122.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 14.8N 122.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 14.9N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 15.0N 123.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0000Z 15.7N 125.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 260237
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ramon Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
700 PM PST Sat Nov 25 2023

...RAMON A BIT STRONGER BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 122.7W
ABOUT 1005 MI...1620 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM PST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ramon was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 122.7 West. Ramon is
drifting toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h) and a slow
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to begin
tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast to begin shortly and Ramon is likely to
degenerate into a remnant low in a day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 100 AM PST.

$$
Forecaster Papin



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 260234
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM RAMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023
0300 UTC SUN NOV 26 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 122.7W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 122.7W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 122.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 14.8N 122.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.9N 123.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.0N 123.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.7N 125.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 122.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN




Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 252200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 20E (RAMON) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20E (RAMON) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 15.2N 123.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 123.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.4N 123.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.6N 123.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 15.7N 123.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 15.9N 124.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
252200Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 123.1W.
25NOV23. TROPICAL STORM 20E (RAMON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1100
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 251800Z IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260400Z, 261000Z, 261600Z AND 262200Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 252040
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
100 PM PST Sat Nov 25 2023

Ramon has changed little through the day. There have been a few
deep bursts of convection that continue to partially obscure the
surface circulation. Satellite-derived surface wind speed data
showed peak winds between 33-34 kt. Therefore, the initial
intensity is held at 35 kt, keeping Ramon at tropical storm status
for now.

The storm is drifting in weak steering currents at an estimated
015/2 kt. Ramon is between a mid-level ridge to the east and a
mid-latitude trough to the north, which will cause a slow
north-northeast to north motion through the remainder of today. By
Sunday, a weaker, more shallow cyclone is forecast to turn
west-northwestward and gradually accelerate along the southern edge
of a building ridge to the north. The latest NHC track forecast is
slightly east of the previous forecast for the first 12 h, and lies
between the consensus aids to the south and the previous forecast to
the north at 24 h and beyond.

Strong vertical wind shear is expected to continue to affect Ramon
for the remainder of the forecast period. While upper-level
divergence may enhance convection for the remainder of the day, the
environment is forecast to become more convergent aloft this
evening. The hostile winds and surrounding dry airmass should cause
Ramon to weaken and become a remnant low by 36 hours, if not sooner.
The official forecast still shows the storm dissipating by early
next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 15.3N 122.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 15.4N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 15.6N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 15.7N 123.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1800Z 15.9N 124.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci



Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 252039
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ramon Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
100 PM PST Sat Nov 25 2023

...RAMON MEANDERING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 122.9W
ABOUT 995 MI...1605 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM PST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ramon was
located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 122.9 West. Ramon is
moving toward the north-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slow
motion toward the north or north-northeast is expected to continue
through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest with an increase
in forward speed is expected Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast to begin tonight. Ramon is likely to
degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 700 PM PST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 252039
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM RAMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023
2100 UTC SAT NOV 25 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 122.9W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 122.9W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 123.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.4N 123.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.6N 123.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 15.7N 123.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.9N 124.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 122.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 251600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 20E (RAMON) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20E (RAMON) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 15.0N 123.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 123.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.4N 123.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.7N 123.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.8N 123.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.2N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
251600Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 123.2W.
25NOV23. TROPICAL STORM 20E (RAMON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1113
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 251200Z IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
252200Z, 260400Z, 261000Z AND 261600Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 251436
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
700 AM PST Sat Nov 25 2023

Ramon's convective pattern has diminished since earlier this
morning, although there is new convection forming near the center.
The system is dealing with strong westerly wind shear which is
displacing any new convection to the east of the low-level center.
Satellite intensity estimates have come down a little this cycle
with Dvorak Final-T values of T2.0/T2.5, or 30 to 35 kt. The
intensity remains at 35 kt for this cycle, which may be a little
generous given the trends in the convective pattern. ASCAT is
expected to pass over the system this afternoon, which should give a
better idea of Ramon's intensity.

The system is estimated to be moving slowly northward or 350/3 kt.
Ramon is within a weak steering pattern between a mid-level ridge to
the east and a mid-latitude trough to the north, which will cause a
slow north to north-northeast motion through the remainder of today.
By Sunday, a weaker and shallow Ramon is forecast to turn
west-northwestward and accelerate along the southern edge of a
building ridge to the north. The NHC track forecast has been nudged
slightly north and west of the previous track, closest to the simple
consensus aids.

Ramon is within a strong westerly vertical wind shear environment,
and the shear magnitude forecast to increase as the system continues
to move poleward. Due to upper-level wind divergence the system may
be able to maintain its tropical storm status through today.
However, the upper-level environment becomes more convergent
tonight. The harsh wind shear and more convergent upper-level
pattern should lead to quick weakening, with Ramon expected to
become a remnant low by 36 hours, if not sooner. Global models then
show the remnant low dissipating by 60 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 15.1N 123.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 15.4N 123.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 15.7N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 15.8N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1200Z 16.2N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 251436
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM RAMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023
1500 UTC SAT NOV 25 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 123.3W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 123.3W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 123.2W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.4N 123.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.7N 123.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.8N 123.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.2N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 123.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY




Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 251436
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ramon Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
700 AM PST Sat Nov 25 2023

...RAMON MOVING NORTHWARD...
...FORECAST TO LAST ONLY ANOTHER DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 123.3W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM PST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ramon was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 123.3 West. Ramon is
moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this slow motion
toward the north or north-northeast is expected to continue through
tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in
forward speed is expected Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast to begin tonight. Ramon is likely to
degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 100 PM PST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly



Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 251000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 20E (RAMON) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20E (RAMON) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 14.3N 122.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 122.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.0N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.2N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.3N 123.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 15.5N 123.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 16.1N 124.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
251000Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 122.9W.
25NOV23. TROPICAL STORM 20E (RAMON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1149
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250600Z IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
251600Z, 252200Z, 260400Z AND 261000Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 250900
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM RAMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023
0900 UTC SAT NOV 25 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 123.0W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 123.0W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 122.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.0N 122.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.2N 122.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.3N 123.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 15.5N 123.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.1N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 123.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 250845
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
100 AM PST Sat Nov 25 2023

Ramon's center popped out from under the earlier convective
activity during the past few hours, although new convection is now
forming near the center. An ASCAT-C pass from around 06 UTC
verified that maximum winds are 35 kt and also showed that the
storm has a tiny circulation, with tropical-storm-force winds only
extending 20 n mi from the center in the eastern semicircle.

The more visible center and scatterometer data aided in adjusting
the best track a little farther north, and Ramon's motion is
estimated to be just west of due north, or 350/4 kt. An even
slower northward or north-northeastward motion is expected during
the next 24 hours while Ramon is caught in weak steering between a
mid-level ridge to the east and a broad mid-latitude trough to the
north. After 24 hours, a weaker and shallower Ramon is forecast to
turn west-northwestward and accelerate, steered by a lower-level
ridge to its north. The updated NHC track forecast has been shifted
a bit north and west of the previous track to account for the
initial center repositioning and blends the latest TVCE and HCCA
consensus guidance.

SHIPS diagnostics indicate that although the westerly shear
affecting Ramon will remain strong and gradually increase,
upper-level divergence is likely to increase and could give the
storm an opportunity to strengthen slightly in the very short term.
The 12-hour NHC intensity forecast reflects this possibility and
follows the HCCA corrected consensus aid. However, the upper-level
environment becomes more convergent just after 24 hours, with
westerly shear increasing to near 50 kt. Those conditions should
lead to quick weakening, with Ramon expected to become a remnant low
by 48 hours, if not sooner. Global models then show the remnant low
dissipating by 72 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 14.6N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 15.0N 122.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 15.2N 122.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 15.3N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 15.5N 123.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1800Z 16.1N 124.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 250845
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ramon Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
100 AM PST Sat Nov 25 2023

...TINY RAMON MOVING NORTHWARD...
...PROBABLY WILL ONLY SURVIVE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 123.0W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM PST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ramon was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 123.0 West. Ramon is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and an even slower
motion toward the north or north-northeast is expected through
tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in
forward speed is expected Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible today before weakening begins
tonight. Ramon is likely to degenerate into a remnant low on
Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 700 AM PST.

$$
Forecaster Berg



Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 250241
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
700 PM PST Fri Nov 24 2023

Since the prior advisory, the tropical cyclone has become markedly
better organized. A small central dense overcast has formed near the
low-level center, with some modest evidence of banding along its
northern and eastern semicircle. Subjective Dvorak estimates form
both TAFB and SAB have been oscillating between 30-35 kt, with
other objective intensity measures ranging from 33 kt from ADT, up
to 39 kt from SATCON. Since the system does look better organized
than earlier today, the intensity has been increased to 35 kt,
upgrading Tropical Depression Twenty-E to Tropical Storm Ramon.

There might be a brief window for the storm to intensify a bit more
overnight, with a shortwave trough riding along a subtropical jet
north of Ramon resulting in a short-term boost in upper-level
divergence over the cyclone. The divergence will also coincide with
the nighttime diurnal convective maximum, which has been quite
prominent the last few nights with this cyclone. However, the same
shortwave trough is also progressive, and will soon lead to
substantial increase in upper-level flow over of Ramon, resulting in
a sharp increase in westerly vertical wind shear. Thus, after a
brief period of intensification overnight, weakening is expected to
begin tomorrow, with the system still forecast to become a remnant
low on Sunday with dissipation shortly thereafter. This intensity
forecast is shifted a bit closer to the the HCCA consensus aid,
which favors the hurricane-regional model solutions more than the
lower SHIPS/LGEM guidance.

The center of Ramon may have reformed closer to the deep convection
earlier today, and its motion is a somewhat uncertain north drift at
360/4 kt. A mid-level ridge centered to the east of Ramon should
lead to the cyclone moving slowly northward in the short term.
However, as the storm encounters the very hostile upper-level
environment, it should become vertically shallow, leaving the
low-level center to be steered slowly west-northwestward by a weak
low-level ridge by the end of the weekend. The latest track forecast
shows a bit more of a northward motion early on, but falls back
close to the previous track, just a bit east of the simple and
corrected track aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 13.8N 122.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 14.5N 122.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 14.9N 122.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 15.0N 122.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 15.1N 123.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1200Z 15.5N 123.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin



Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 250237
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ramon Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
700 PM PST Fri Nov 24 2023

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM RAMON...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 122.6W
ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM PST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ramon was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 122.6 West. Ramon is
moving slowly toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A
westward turn and continued slow motion is forecast to occur by
early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. A brief period of intensification is forecast
followed by weakening by tomorrow night. Ramon is likely to become
a remnant low by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 100 AM PST.

$$
Forecaster Papin



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 250236
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM RAMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023
0300 UTC SAT NOV 25 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 122.6W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 122.6W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 122.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.5N 122.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.9N 122.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.0N 122.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.1N 123.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.5N 123.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 122.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN




Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 242033
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
100 PM PST Fri Nov 24 2023

The depression appears to be interacting with the dry airmass to its
north. A large arc cloud stretches around the northern and western
portions of the circulation. Cloud tops have generally warmed
throughout the day and there have been isolated bursts of convection
near the suspected location of the low-level center. Intensity
estimates still range between 30 to 40 kt. The initial intensity
remains at 30 kt since the convective organization has not improved
since the previous advisory.

It has been difficult to locate the center of the depression and
the initial motion is set to an uncertain 335/3 kt. A weak
mid-level ridge will continue to slowly steer the system generally
northward through the weekend. The latest track prediction is very
similar to the previous forecast and has only been adjusted based on
the latest estimated initial position.

Oceanic and environmental conditions are expected to become more
hostile in the coming days. Vertical wind shear is forecast to
remain strong through the forecast period and mid-level moisture
should decrease within a day or so. Therefore, chances remain quite
low for the depression to strengthen further and the official
forecast maintains the current intensity for the next 36 h. By end
of the weekend, the depression is expected to become a remnant low
and likely open into a trough by Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 13.5N 122.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 14.2N 123.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 14.8N 123.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 15.3N 123.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 15.7N 123.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0600Z 16.1N 123.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 242031
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023
2100 UTC FRI NOV 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 122.8W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 122.8W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 122.7W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.2N 123.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 14.8N 123.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.3N 123.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.7N 123.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.1N 123.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 122.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI




Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 242032
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-E Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
100 PM PST Fri Nov 24 2023

...DEPRESSION DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 122.8W
ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM PST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E
was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 122.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A
generally northward motion at a slower forward speed is expected
over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days, and the depression is likely to become a remnant low by
Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 700 PM PST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci



Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 241436
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
700 AM PST Fri Nov 24 2023

Depression Twenty-E continues to have a pulsing convective pattern.
After a round of deep convection this morning, cloud tops have been
warming for the last couple of hours. Satellite intensity estimates
for this cycle were 30 to 35 kt. There was a partial AMSR microwave
pass this morning, but it missed the convective side of the system.
There have been no other microwave or scatterometer passes to aid in
determining the overall low-level organization or intensity of the
system. Given the warming cloud top temperatures, the initial
intensity is held at 30 kt near the lower end of the estimated
intensity range.

The depression is moving northwestward around the southwestern edge
of a mid-level ridge at an estimated motion of 325/5kt. A mid-level
trough is expected to develop to the northwest of the depression,
causing the cyclone to slow down and turn northward or
north-northeastward during the next couple of days. The new NHC
track forecast is very similar to the previous forecast, near the
simple consensus aids.

West-northwesterly shear currently affecting the system is forecast
to increase throughout the day. The vertical wind shear should
become strong (30-40 kt) in about 24h, and increase to near 50 kt by
Sunday. As the system moves poleward, it will encounter a drier
mid-level airmass as well. As a result, little change in intensity
is forecast for the next couple of days, but there is a slight
possibility the system could briefly reach tropical storm strength.
The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, with
the system forecast to become a remnant low by Sunday, and
dissipating early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 13.4N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 14.1N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 14.9N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 15.5N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 15.9N 123.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 16.3N 123.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1200Z 16.9N 124.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 241435
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023
1500 UTC FRI NOV 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 123.0W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 123.0W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 122.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.1N 123.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.9N 123.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.5N 123.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.9N 123.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.3N 123.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.9N 124.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 123.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 241435
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-E Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
700 AM PST Fri Nov 24 2023

...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 123.0W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM PST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E
was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 123.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue through today. A
generally northward motion at a slower forward speed is expected
over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days, and the depression is likely to become a remnant low by
Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 100 PM PST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 240837
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
100 AM PST Fri Nov 24 2023

Another round of deep convection has formed within the southeastern
quadrant of the circulation, and the high-level cirrus has expanded
westward, mostly obscuring the depression's center. With final-T
numbers of 2.0 from both TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity
remains 30 kt.

The depression has turned northwestward, skirting along the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone, with an initial
motion of 315/7 kt. A mid-level trough is expected to develop near
the depression during the next couple of days, causing the cyclone
to slow down and turn northward or north-northeastward. The new
NHC track forecast is a blend of the previous forecast with the
latest TVCE consensus, requiring another slight westward shift to
the left.

With the aforementioned trough digging near the depression, the 20
kt of west-northwesterly shear current affecting the system is
forecast increase to about 50 kt of westerly shear in about 48
hours. As a result, little change in intensity is expected during
the next couple of days, but that doesn't rule out a brief period
as a tropical storm if the system can maintain convection near the
center. The increasing shear is likely, however, to ultimately
cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 hours and
dissipate in about 4 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 13.0N 122.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 13.7N 123.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 15.3N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 15.7N 123.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 16.1N 123.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0600Z 16.7N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg



Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 240836
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-E Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
100 AM PST Fri Nov 24 2023

...DEPRESSION TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 122.7W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM PST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E
was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 122.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue through today. A
generally northward motion at a slower forward speed is expected
over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days, and the depression is likely to become a remnant low by
Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 700 AM PST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 240836
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023
0900 UTC FRI NOV 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 122.7W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 122.7W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 122.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 13.7N 123.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.3N 123.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.7N 123.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.1N 123.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.7N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 122.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 240231
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
700 PM PST Thu Nov 23 2023

The depression has been producing a limited amount of deep
convection during the past several hours as it continues to feel
the influence of westerly vertical wind shear and dry air
entrainment. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, which
lies near the lower end of the latest Dvorak estimates.

The system has been wobbling around since it formed, but the
average motion during the past 6 to 12 hours is west-northwestward
at 8 kt. A slow northwestward to northward motion is expected
during the next few days as the cyclone moves in weak steering
flow between a mid-level ridge to its east and a mid- to upper-level
trough to its northwest. Beyond that time, the weak and shallow
system should turn more westward within the low-level flow. The NHC
track forecast has been shifted slightly to the left, trending
toward the middle of the guidance envelope.

The ragged appearance of the system, lack of deep convection, and
entrainment of dry air suggests that little or no strengthening is
likely during the next 12 to 24 hours. However, the models show
upper-level diffluence briefly increasing over the system Friday
night and Saturday, which could result in an increase in deep
convection and perhaps a little strengthening. However, strong
vertical wind shear and even drier air should end the opportunity
for strengthening on Sunday, and lead to the system becoming a
remnant low. All of the global models show the low dissipating
entirely in 4 to 5 days. The NHC intensity forecast is in line
with the majority of the guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 12.6N 122.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 13.2N 122.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 14.1N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 14.9N 123.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 15.5N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 15.9N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 16.4N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0000Z 18.0N 124.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 240231
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
700 PM PST Thu Nov 23 2023

...DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 122.4W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM PST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E
was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 122.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15
km/h). A slow northwestward to northward motion is expected during
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible in a day or so. However,
the system is forecast to become a remnant low by the end of the
weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 100 AM PST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 240230
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023
0300 UTC FRI NOV 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 122.4W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 122.4W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 122.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 13.2N 122.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.1N 123.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.9N 123.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.5N 123.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.9N 123.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.4N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 18.0N 124.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 122.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 232034
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
100 PM PST Thu Nov 23 2023

Tropical Depression Twenty-E's visible and infrared depiction has
deteriorated some this afternoon, with slightly less deep
convection. The system is struggling to become better organized due
to northwesterly wind shear, and the low-level center is now exposed
on the northwest side of the convective plume. Subjective intensity
estimates have a fairly large range this cycle, from 30 kt up to
45 kt. A scatterometer pass from this afternoon shows winds on the
lower end, between 28-32 kt. Given this data, the initial intensity
is held towards the low end of these estimates at 30 kt this
advisory.

The depression is drifting west-northwestward around 3 kt. A
continued slow northwestward to north-northwestward motion is
expected during the next couple of days as the system moves in the
light steering flow between a ridge to its northeast and a trough to
its northwest. The model guidance is in fairly good agreement with
the system gradually moving poleward. The NHC forecast was nudged
slightly to the left of the previous track, and lies near the
consensus aids.

Some slight strengthening over the next 24 h remains possible as the
system is currently over warm sea surface temperatures. After this
time, an increase in vertical wind shear and dry air should cause
weakening. The system will likely struggle to produce organized deep
convection by 72 hours, with the system becoming a remnant low at
that time. However, given the harsh environment and small size of
the system, this transition could occur sooner. Most models show
the system dissipating and opening into a trough by the end of the
forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one, near the HCCA corrected consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 12.0N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 12.5N 122.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 13.4N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 14.4N 123.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 15.1N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 15.6N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 16.1N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1800Z 17.0N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 232032
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023
2100 UTC THU NOV 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 121.9W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 121.9W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 121.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 12.5N 122.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 13.4N 122.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.4N 123.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.1N 123.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.6N 123.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.1N 122.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 17.0N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 121.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY




Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 232031
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
100 PM PST Thu Nov 23 2023

...DEPRESSION DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 121.9W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM PST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E
was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 121.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h).
A generally slow motion with a gradual turn towards the northwest
and then north is forecast during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so,
followed by weakening with the system forecast to become a remnant
low by this weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 700 PM PST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly



Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 231715 CCA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-E Advisory Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
700 AM PST Thu Nov 23 2023

Corrected time to standard time.

...DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF EAST PACIFIC
BASIN...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 121.1W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1700 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM PST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E
was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 121.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h).
A generally slow motion with a gradual turn towards the
northwestward and then northward is forecast during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so,
followed but weakening with the system forecast to become a remnant
low by later this weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 100 PM PST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 231442
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023
1500 UTC THU NOV 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 121.1W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 121.1W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 120.9W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 12.3N 121.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 13.2N 122.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.0N 122.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.9N 123.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.6N 122.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.2N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 17.0N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 121.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY




Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 231442
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
800 AM PDT Thu Nov 23 2023

...DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF EAST PACIFIC
BASIN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 121.1W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1700 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E
was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 121.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h).
A generally slow motion with a gradual turn towards the
northwestward and then northward is forecast during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so,
followed but weakening with the system forecast to become a remnant
low by later this weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly



Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 231442
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
800 AM PDT Thu Nov 23 2023

The area of low pressure (94E) that NHC has been monitoring has now
become a tropical depression over the central East Pacific basin.
Satellite images show that deep convection has been persistent and
consolidating near the low-level center. Dvorak estimates from TAFB
and SAB were T2.5 and T1.5, respectively. Using a blend of these
estimates the initial intensity is set to 30 kt for this advisory.

The depression is drifting west-northwestward around 2 kt. A
continued slow northwestward to north-northwestward motion is
expected during the next couple of days as the system moves in the
light steering flow between a ridge to its northeast and a trough to
its northwest. The model guidance is in fairly good agreement with
the system gradually moving poleward, and the NHC track forecast is
near the various consensus aids.

Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so.
However, beyond that time, an increase in vertical wind shear and
dry air should cause weakening. Simulated satellite from the ECMWF
and GFS show that the system will likely struggle to produce
organized deep convection by 72 hours, and therefore the official
forecast depicts the system becoming a remnant low at that time.
Most models show the system dissipating and opening into a trough by
the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast lies near
the HCCA corrected consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 11.9N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 12.3N 121.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 13.2N 122.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 14.0N 122.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 14.9N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 15.6N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 16.2N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1200Z 17.0N 122.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly