Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for OTIS-23
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 252200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS) WARNING NR 015
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 18E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 18.7N 100.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 100.7W
---
REMARKS:
25OCT23. TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1218 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 251800Z IS 985
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 12 FEET.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 252031
TCDEP3

Remnants Of Otis Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023

High-resolution visible satellite imagery and synoptic observations
indicate that the surface circulation of Otis has dissipated
over the mountains of southern Mexico. Therefore, this is the last
advisory on this system.

The remnants of Otis will continue to produce locally heavy rains
and flooding through Thursday.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of
southwestern and south-central Mexico through Thursday. This
rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides
in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 19.1N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS OF OTIS
12H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 252031
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Otis Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023

...OTIS DISSIPATES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 100.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM NNW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Punta Maldonado to Acapulco.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Otis were located near
latitude 19.1 North, longitude 100.8 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The remnants of Otis are expected to produce additional
rainfall totals of 2-4 inches (locally as high as 6) through
Thursday across Guerrero, Mexico, and Morelos. A rainfall total of
9 inches was already observed at Cigua de Benitez in the state of
Guerrero. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding,
along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 252031
TCMEP3

REMNANTS OF OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023
2100 UTC WED OCT 25 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 100.8W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 100.8W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 100.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 100.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 251748
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Otis Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023

...OTIS NOW A TROPICAL STORM INLAND...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 100.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NNW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado westward to Acapulco

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 100.7 West. Otis is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion is expected through early tonight. On the forecast
track, the center of Otis will continue to move farther inland over
southern Mexico later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is expected while Otis
moves farther inland over the mountains of Mexico. Otis will likely
dissipate over southern Mexico tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected inland over southern
Mexico near the center of Otis during the next several hours, with
the strongest winds atop and on the windward sides of hills and and
mountains. Gusty winds are also expected in a few squalls along the
coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area.

RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of
4-6 inches (locally as high as 8) through Thursday across Guerrero
and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall will
produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 251600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 18E (OTIS) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 18E (OTIS) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 17.8N 100.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 100.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.4N 101.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251600Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 100.6W.
25OCT23. HURRICANE 18E (OTIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1270 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 251200Z
IS 965 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 252200Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 251500
TCDEP3

Hurricane Otis Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023

The center of Otis continues to move farther inland, and assuming a
typical overland decay rate, the current intensity estimate is
reduced to 70 kt. These hurricane-force winds are likely occurring
over a small area near the center of the circulation. Otis should
continue to weaken rapidly over the rugged terrain of southern
Mexico today, and the system is expected to dissipate by late
tonight.

Otis is moving north-northwestward at about 345/9 kt. A ridge to
the northeast of Otis and a trough to its northwest should
continue to steer the cyclone north-northwestward until dissipation
in 24 hours. The official track forecast is very similar to the
previous advisory.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane-force winds are still occuring inland over the
mountainous terrain of southern Mexico near the center of Otis.

3. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of southwest
Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall will produce flash and
urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 18.2N 100.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
12H 26/0000Z 19.4N 101.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 251500
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Otis Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023

...OTIS MOVING FARTHER INLAND...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 100.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NNW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning
west of Acapulco, and changed the Hurricane Warning from Acapulco
to Punta Maldonado to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado westward to Acapulco

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Otis was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 100.6 West. Otis is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected through early tonight. On the forecast track,
the center of Otis will continue to move farther inland over
southern Mexico through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is expected while Otis
moves farther inland over the mountains of Mexico. Otis will
likely dissipate over southern Mexico tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane-force winds will continue to occur inland over
southern Mexico near the center of Otis this morning, with the
strongest winds atop and on the windward sides of hills and
and mountains.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge and waves along the southern coast of
Mexico are gradually subsiding.

RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of
4-6 inches (locally as high as 8) through Thursday across Guerrero
and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall will
produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain.

SURF: Swells along the southern coast of Mexico will gradually
subside today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 251500
TCMEP3

HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023
1500 UTC WED OCT 25 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 100.6W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 75SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 100.6W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 100.4W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.4N 101.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 100.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 25/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 251149
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Otis Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
700 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023

...STRONG WINDS CONTINUING TO SPREAD INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 100.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NNW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Otis was located
inland near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 100.3 West. Otis is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion is expected through early tonight. On the forecast
track, the center of Otis will move farther inland over southern
Mexico through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is expected while Otis
moves farther inland over the higher terrain of Mexico. Otis will
likely dissipate over southern Mexico tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70
miles (110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml

WIND: Damaging hurricane-force winds will spread inland over
southern Mexico this morning with extremely destructive
winds near the core during the next few hours. Wind speeds atop
and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to
30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this
advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater.

STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge will continue along the
coast of southern Mexico this morning in areas of onshore winds
within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16
inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches through Thursday across
Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Otis will affect portions of the southern
coast of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 251000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 18E (OTIS) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 18E (OTIS) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 16.7N 99.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 99.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.2N 100.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.2N 101.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
251000Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 100.1W.
25OCT23. HURRICANE 18E (OTIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1338 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250600Z IS 923 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
251600Z, 252200Z AND 260400Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 250847
TCDEP3

Hurricane Otis Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023

Satellite data indicated that Otis continued to strengthen to near
the time of landfall in southern Mexico. Subjective Dvorak data
T-numbers were around T7.0 (140 kt) around 04-05Z while raw
objective ADT numbers were in the T7.2 to T7.6 range between about
01-05Z. Based on that data, Otis is estimated to have made landfall
around 0625 UTC as a category 5 hurricane with maximum winds of 145
kt. The core of the hurricane moved onshore in the greater Acapulco
area. Now that the center of Otis has moved inland, weakening has
begun and the initial intensity has been lowered to 115 kt for this
advisory. Rapid weakening will occur during the next 12 to 24 hours
as Otis moves over the rugged terrain of southern Mexico, however
damaging hurricane-force winds are likely to spread inland through
this morning, and heavy rainfall and flash flooding is also likely
to spread inland over portions of southern Mexico. The circulation
of Otis is forecast to dissipate over the mountains of southern
Mexico tonight or Thursday.

The hurricane is moving north-northwestward or 345 degrees at 9 kt.
A ridge to the northeast of Otis and a trough to the west of the
storm should continue to steer the cyclone north-northwestward
until dissipation occurs tonight. The NHC track forecast is
similar to, but a little faster than the previous advisory.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging hurricane-force winds will spread inland over southern
Mexico this morning with extremely destructive winds near the core
during the next few hours.

2. Life-threatening storm surge will continue along the coast of
southern Mexico this morning in areas of onshore winds within the
hurricane warning. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and dangerous waves.

3. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of southwest
Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 17.2N 100.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 18.2N 100.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 26/0600Z 19.2N 101.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 250845
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Otis Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023

...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS SPREADING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 100.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning and Hurricane Watch east of Punta Maldonado.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Otis was located
near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 100.1 West. Otis is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected through early tonight. On the forecast track,
the center of Otis will move farther inland over southern Mexico
through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Otis is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is expected
as Otis moves inland over the higher terrain of Mexico. Otis will
likely dissipate over southern Mexico tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml

WIND: Damaging hurricane-force winds will spread inland over
southern Mexico this morning with extremely destructive
winds near the core during the next few hours. Wind speeds atop
and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to
30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this
advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater.

STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge will continue along the
coast of southern Mexico this morning in areas of onshore winds
within the hurricane warning. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16
inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches through Thursday across
Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Otis will affect portions of the southern
coast of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 250845
TCMEP3

HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023
0900 UTC WED OCT 25 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 100.1W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 100.1W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 99.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.2N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.2N 101.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 100.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 25/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ63 KNHC 250626
TCUEP3

Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
125 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023

...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS MAKES LANDFALL NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO...

Satellite imagery indicates that Otis has made landfall near
Acapulco, Mexico around 125 AM CDT (0625 UTC). The maximum
sustained winds are estimated to be 165 mph (270 km/h), and the
minimum central pressure is estimated at 923 mb (27.26 inches). Otis
is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale.

SUMMARY OF 125 AM CDT...0625 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8 99.9W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 250556
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Otis Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
100 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023

...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
ACAPULCO MEXICO...
...CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE LIKELY WHERE THE CORE MOVES ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 99.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Otis was located
near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 99.8 West. Otis is moving toward
the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion
is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Otis
will make landfall near Acapulco, Mexico within the next hour. Otis
is then forecast to move inland over southern Mexico during the next
day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher
gusts. Otis is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Otis is forecast to remain a category 5
hurricane through landfall. Rapid weakening is then expected once
Otis moves inland over the higher terrain of Mexico. Otis will
likely dissipate over southern Mexico on Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70
miles (110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 923 mb (27.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane condition are occurring within portions of the
hurricane warning area and they will spread inland through this
morning, with extremely destructive winds near the core. Winds
affecting the upper floors of high-rise buildings will be
significantly stronger than those near ground level. Tropical
storm conditions will continue within portions of the warning areas
through today.

STORM SURGE: A potentially catastrophic storm surge is expected to
produce life-threatening coastal flooding near and to the east of
where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16
inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches through Thursday across
Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Otis will affect portions of the southern
coast of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTPZ63 KNHC 250459
TCUEP3

Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023

...EYEWALL OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS
MOVING ASHORE NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO...
...12 AM POSITION UPDATE...

Satellite imagery indicates that the eyewall of potentially
catastrophic Hurricane Otis is moving ashore the southern coast of
Mexico near Acapulco. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be
165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Otis is a category 5
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Otis is
forecast to remain a category 5 hurricane through landfall within
the next few hours.

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5 99.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTPZ63 KNHC 250400
TCUEP3

Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1100 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS STILL
STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...

Recent satellite data indicate that Otis continues to strengthen.
The maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be near 165 mph
(270 km/h) with higher gusts. Otis is a category 5 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Otis is forecast to
remain a category 5 hurricane through landfall overnight.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3 99.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 250250
TCDEP3

Hurricane Otis Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

A nightmare scenario is unfolding for southern Mexico this evening
with rapidly intensifying Otis approaching the coastline. Satellite
images show that Otis has continued to intensify, with Dvorak
Data-T estimates between 130-145 kt during the past few hours. The
initial wind speed is set to 140 kt as a blend of these values,
making Otis a Category 5 hurricane. Otis has explosively
intensified 95 kt during the past 24 hours, a mark only exceeded in
modern times by Patricia in 2015.

Otis should maintain category 5 status before the hurricane makes
landfall near the Acapulco area overnight or early on Wednesday.
The only significant change to mention to the track forecast is
that it has been shifted to the right due to a recent wobble to the
east and the latest model trends, and a general north-northwest
motion at about 8 kt is anticipated through landfall. Rapid
weakening is anticipated after landfall, and Otis should dissipate
tomorrow night over the higher terrain of Mexico.

This is an extremely serious situation for the Acapulco
metropolitan area with the core of the destructive hurricane likely
to come near or over that large city early on Wednesday. There are
no hurricanes on record even close to this intensity for this part
of Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Otis is forecast to be a potentially catastrophic Category 5
hurricane when it reaches the southern coast of Mexico early
Wednesday. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in
portions of the Hurricane Warning area with catastrophic damage
expected.

2. A potentially catastrophic storm surge is expected to produce
life-threatening coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

3. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of southwest
Mexico this week. This rainfall will produce flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 16.1N 99.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 17.3N 100.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
24H 26/0000Z 18.0N 100.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 250248
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Otis Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...OTIS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE LIKELY WHERE THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE MOVES
ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 99.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of Otis.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Otis was located
near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 99.7 West. Otis is moving toward
the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion
is expected through for the next day or so, with landfall
forecast overnight or early on Wednesday in southern Mexico.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Otis is a
category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Otis is forecast to remain a category 5 hurricane through landfall,
and rapid weakening is then forecast due to the higher terrain of
Mexico. Otis will likely dissipate over southern Mexico on
Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 927 mb (27.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area by late tonight and early Wednesday, with
extremely destructive winds near the core. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning
areas soon, and then spread northwestward within the warning areas
through Wednesday. Winds affecting the upper floors of high-rise
buildings will be significantly stronger than those near ground
level.

STORM SURGE: A potentially catastrophic storm surge is expected to
produce life-threatening coastal flooding near and to the east of
where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16
inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches through Thursday across
Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Otis will affect portions of the southern
coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 250400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 18E (OTIS) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 18E (OTIS) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 15.7N 99.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 99.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.3N 100.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.0N 100.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250400Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 99.8W.
25OCT23. HURRICANE 18E (OTIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1395 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250000Z IS 941 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
251000Z, 251600Z AND 252200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 250247
TCMEP3

HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023
0300 UTC WED OCT 25 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 99.7W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 927 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 99.7W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 99.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.3N 100.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.0N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 99.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 25/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 242356
TCDEP3

Hurricane Otis Special Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
700 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

This special advisory is being issued to update the current and
forecast intensity of Otis. Satellite images show that the very
rapid intensification observed earlier today has continued, and the
latest data support an initial intensity of 125 kt. The intensity
forecast peak is updated to 140 kt, category 5 strength, since the
environment isn't forecast to change much before landfall, and there
are no signs of this explosive intensification stopping. This is
an extremely dangerous situation, and all preparations for Otis
should be rushed to completion.

There are no changes to the track or wind radii forecast on this
advisory, and this special advisory is being issued in lieu of the
Intermediate Advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Otis is forecast to be a potentially catastrophic Category 5
hurricane when it reaches the southern coast of Mexico late tonight
or early Wednesday, and preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

2. A potentially catastrophic storm surge is expected to produce
life-threatening coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

3. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of southwest
Mexico this week. This rainfall will produce flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0000Z 15.7N 99.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 16.3N 100.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 17.5N 100.8W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
36H 26/0600Z 18.1N 101.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 26/1800Z 18.4N 102.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 242355
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Otis Special Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
700 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...OTIS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY
4 HURRICANE...
...NOW EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY AT LANDFALL...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 99.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12-24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of Otis.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Otis was located
near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 99.6 West. Otis is moving toward
the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a north-
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, Otis is expected to reach
the coast of southern Mexico by early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts. Otis is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast, and Otis is forecast to be a potentially catastrophic
category 5 hurricane when the center reaches the coast. Rapid
weakening will occur after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 941 mb (27.79 inches).

This special advisory takes the place of the regularly scheduled
700 PM CDT intermediate advisory for Otis.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area by late tonight and Wednesday, with extremely
destructive winds near the core. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to first reach the coast within the warning areas this
evening, and then spread northwestward within the warning areas
through Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A potentially catastrophic storm surge is expected to
produce life-threatening coastal flooding near and to the east of
where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches through Friday across
Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Otis will affect portions of the southern
coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 242354
TCMEP3

HURRICANE OTIS SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023
0000 UTC WED OCT 25 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 99.6W AT 25/0000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 99.6W AT 25/0000Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 99.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.3N 100.0W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.5N 100.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.1N 101.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.4N 102.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 99.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 242200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 18E (OTIS) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 18E (OTIS) WARNING NR 010
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 18E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 14.9N 99.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 99.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.3N 100.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.5N 100.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.1N 101.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.4N 102.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
242200Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 99.5W.
24OCT23. HURRICANE 18E (OTIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1443 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 241800Z IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250400Z, 251000Z, 251600Z AND 252200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (NORMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 242056
TCDEP3

Hurricane Otis Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

Otis has undergone very rapid intensification today. An eye became
apparent on visible satellite images only a few hours ago, embedded
in very deep convection. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
penetrated the eye around 1900 UTC and again around 2000 UTC, and
found that the maximum sustained winds had increased to near 110 kt
over a very small area near the center, while the central pressure
remarkably dropped around 10 mb from the first to the second center
fix. The intensity of Otis is well above the Dvorak satellite
estimates, and again underscores the value of aerial reconnaissance
in monitoring hurricanes.

Otis should remain in an atmospheric and oceanic environment
that will be conducive for further strengthening later today and
tonight. Vertical wind shear should not be too strong, with SSTs
near 30 deg C. Based on the observed changes, the short-term
official intensity forecast remains above the model guidance. The
system is now forecast to be at extremely dangerous Category 4
hurricane status by the time it reaches the coast of southern Mexico
late tonight or tomorrow morning. After landfall, the system
should weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain of Mexico.

The hurricane continues on about the same heading, or around 330/7
kt. For the next couple of days, Otis should move between a
mid-level ridge to the east and northeast and a trough to its
northwest. The official track forecast is about the same as the
previous one and is a little faster than the dynamical consensus.
On this track, the center of the hurricane will make landfall
within the hurricane warning area late tonight or early Wednesday.

Key Messages:

1. Otis is forecast to be an extremely dangerous Category 4
hurricane when it reaches the southern coast of Mexico late tonight
or early Wednesday, and preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

2. A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

3. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of southwest
Mexico this week. This rainfall will produce flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 15.3N 99.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 16.3N 100.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 17.5N 100.8W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
36H 26/0600Z 18.1N 101.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 26/1800Z 18.4N 102.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 242055
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Otis Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...OTIS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...NOW EXPECTED TO BE AT CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY AT LANDFALL...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 99.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of Otis.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Otis was located
near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 99.5 West. Otis is moving
toward the north- northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a north-
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, Otis is expected to
reach the coast of southern Mexico by early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Otis is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast, and Otis is expected to be an extremely dangerous
category 4 hurricane when the center reaches the coast. Rapid
weakening will occur after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml

RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches through Friday across
Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area by late tonight and Wednesday, with
extremely destructive winds near the core. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the
warning areas later today or this evening, and then spread
northwestward within the warning areas through Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected
to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of
where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Otis will affect portions of the southern
coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 242055
TCMEP3

HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023
2100 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 99.5W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 99.5W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 99.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.3N 100.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.5N 100.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.1N 101.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.4N 102.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 99.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 25/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


>

Original Message :

WTPZ63 KNHC 241933 CCA
TCUEP3

Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
200 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

Corrected longitude to 99.4

...OTIS NEARING MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH...

Recent reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Otis has strengthened rapidly over the past few hours, and the
maximum sustained winds are now near 110 mph (175 km/h). A complete
advisory, including an updated intensity forecast, will be issued
by 4 PM CDT.


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 99.4W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ63 KNHC 241902
TCUEP3

Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
200 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...OTIS NEARING MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH...

Recent reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Otis has strengthened rapidly over the past few hours, and the
maximum sustained winds are now near 110 mph (175 km/h). A complete
advisory, including an updated intensity forecast, will be issued
by 4 PM CDT.


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 94.4W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 241757
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Otis Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
100 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...OTIS BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...FURTHER STRENGTHENING LIKELY UNTIL LANDFALL...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 99.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of Otis.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Otis was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 99.3 West. Otis is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, Otis is expected to reach the coast of southern
Mexico by early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is forecast until
the center reaches the coastline. Rapid weakening is likely after
landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60
miles (95 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml

RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches through Friday across
Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area by late tonight and Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the
warning areas later today or this evening, and then spread
northwestward within the warning areas through Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Otis will affect portions of the southern
coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 241600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 98.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 98.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.6N 99.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.6N 100.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.2N 100.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.9N 101.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.3N 102.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
241600Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 99.1W.
24OCT23. TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1476 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
241200Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z
IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242200Z, 250400Z, 251000Z AND 251600Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 241458
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

Satellite imagery indicates that Otis continues to become better
organized. There is very cold-topped convection with the Central
Dense Overcast surrounded by a number of convective banding
features. Upper-level outflow is well-defined over most of the
circulation. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from
55 to 65 kt and the current intensity estimate is set at 60 kt
for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate Otis this afternoon, which
should provide a good estimate of the intensity of the tropical
cyclone.

Sea surface temperatures are very warm, around 30 deg C, and the
low-to mid-level humidities are fairly high. There is weak to
moderate south-southeasterly shear over the system, which is
located on the western periphery of an upper-tropospheric
anticyclone. Steady strengthening seems likely until Otis makes
landfall within the next day or so. Based on the current
trends, the official intensity forecast is above most of the model
guidance. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) indices show a
greater than normal probability of RI, so some further upward
adjustments to the intensity forecast are possible later today.
Otis should rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico after it
moves inland.

Otis continues on its north-northwestward track and the initial
motion estimate is 330/7 kt. A mostly north-northwestward
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days while
the tropical cyclone moves between a mid- to upper-level trough to
the cyclone's northwest and a ridge to its east. On this track,
the center should cross the coastline of southern Mexico in a day
or so. The interaction of the circulation of Otis with the
mountainous terrain of Mexico could induce a slight leftward turn
as the system nears the coastline. The official track forecast is
fairly close to the previous NHC prediction and on the left side of
the model guidance suite.

Key Messages:

1. Otis is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the
southern coast of Mexico late tonight or Wednesday, and hurricane
and tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
southern coast of Mexico where hurricane and tropical storm
warnings are in effect.

2. Heavy rains from Otis will begin to impact areas of southwest
Mexico early this week. This rainfall will produce flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes
landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 14.8N 99.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 15.6N 99.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 16.6N 100.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 17.2N 100.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 26/1200Z 17.9N 101.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 27/0000Z 18.3N 102.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 241457
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Otis Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...OTIS NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 99.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of Otis.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 99.1 West. Otis is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, Otis is expected to reach the coast of southern
Mexico late tonight or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Otis is expected to strengthen into a hurricane later
today, and continue to strengthen until it reaches the coastline.
Rapid weakening is likely after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml

RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches through Friday across
Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area by late tonight and Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the
warning areas later today or this evening, and then spread
northwestward within the warning areas through Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Otis will affect portions of the southern
coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 241457
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023
1500 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 99.1W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 99.1W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 98.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.6N 99.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.6N 100.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.2N 100.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.9N 101.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.3N 102.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 99.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 24/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 241147
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Otis Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
700 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...OTIS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 98.6W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of Otis.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 98.6 West. Otis is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, Otis is expected to reach the coast of southern
Mexico late tonight or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, Otis is expected to become a
hurricane before it reaches southern Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml

RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches through Friday across
Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area by late tonight and Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the
warning areas later today or this evening, and then spread
northwestward within the warning areas through Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Otis will affect portions of the southern
coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 241000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 13.9N 98.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 98.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.0N 99.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.1N 99.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.1N 100.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.9N 100.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.6N 101.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
241000Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 98.5W.
24OCT23. TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1526 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240600Z
IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 241600Z, 242200Z, 250400Z AND 251000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (NORMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 240848
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

Otis has strengthened overnight. There has been a significant
increase in banding and the center is now well embedded within the
deep convection. While there has been no recent microwave imagery
to evaluate the inner core structure, a couple of earlier ASCAT
overpass indicated that the center had become embedded within the
cold cloud tops. The initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt
for this advisory, and that is in agreement with subjective Dvorak
data T-numbers of 3.5 from both SAB and TAFB.

It appears that the vertical shear over Otis has decreased as there
has been an expansion of the cirrus outflow over the eastern portion
of the storm. The shear is expected to remain light to moderate
while Otis moves over SSTs of 29-30 degrees C during the next day or
so. These conditions should allow for continued strengthening as
Otis approaches the southern coast of Mexico. The latest NHC
intensity forecast calls for Otis to become a hurricane today, and
it shows additional strengthening before Otis reaches southern
Mexico in a day or so. By 36 hours, Otis is forecast to be inland,
and rapid weakening should occur as the cyclone moves over
mountainous terrain. The NHC intensity forecast is at the high end
of the guidance in best agreement with the HWRF and HAFS-B models.
The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index now shows about a 1 in 4
chance of rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours, which
supports being on the higher side of the guidance.

Otis is moving north-northwestward at about 7 kt. A north-northwest
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days
between a mid- to upper-level trough to the cyclone's northwest and
a ridge to its east. The GFS has finally come onboard with this
scenario and the track guidance is much more tightly clustered than
before. The main difference is in the forward speed with the ECMWF
being on the faster side of the guidance envelope. The NHC
forecast is near a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF models, which
is a little faster than the simple consensus aids.

Based on the updated track and intensity forecast, the government
of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the
southern coast of Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Otis is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the
southern coast of Mexico late tonight or Wednesday, and hurricane
and tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
southern coast of Mexico where hurricane and tropical storm
warnings are in effect.

2. Heavy rains from Otis will begin to impact areas of southern and
southwestern Mexico later today. This rainfall will produce flash
and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes
landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 14.2N 98.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 15.0N 99.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 16.1N 99.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 17.1N 100.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 26/0600Z 17.9N 100.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 26/1800Z 18.6N 101.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 240847
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Otis Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...OTIS STRENGTHENING AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 98.5W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning along the
southern coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado westward to
Zihuatanejo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of Otis.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 98.5 West. Otis is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, Otis is expected to reach the coast of southern
Mexico late tonight or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, Otis
is expected to become a hurricane before it reaches southern Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml

RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches through Friday across
Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected withing portions of the
hurricane warning area by late tonight and Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the
warning areas later today or this evening, and then spread
northwestward within the warning areas through Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Otis will affect portions of the southern
coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 240847
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023
0900 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 98.5W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 98.5W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 98.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.0N 99.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.1N 99.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.1N 100.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.9N 100.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.6N 101.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 98.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 24/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 240645
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Otis Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
100 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...OTIS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT
LANDFALL...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 98.0W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of Otis.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 98.0 West. Otis is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, Otis is expected to reach the coast of southern
Mexico on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Otis is expected to
be near hurricane strength before it reaches southern Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
Heavy rains from the depression will continue to impact portions of
Nicaragua through Tuesday night with heavy rainfall spreading into
Honduras during the day on Tuesday. This rainfall is likely to
produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in
areas of higher terrain.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml

RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches through Friday across
Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible within the warning area beginning Tuesday
night.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Otis will begin to affect portions of the
southern coast of Mexico on Tuesday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 240614
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Otis Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
100 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...OTIS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT
LANDFALL...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 98.0W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of Otis.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 98.0 West. Otis is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, Otis is expected to reach the coast of southern
Mexico on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Otis is expected to
be near hurricane strength before it reaches southern Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml

RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches through Friday across
Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible within the warning area beginning Tuesday
night.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Otis will begin to affect portions of the
southern coast of Mexico on Tuesday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Jelsema

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 240400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 13.3N 97.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 97.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.4N 98.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.5N 98.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.4N 99.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.3N 100.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.0N 101.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240400Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 98.0W.
24OCT23. TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1572 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240000Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
241000Z, 241600Z, 242200Z AND 250400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (NORMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 240239
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

Otis has the appearance of a sheared tropical storm this evening,
with the center on the eastern edge of a relatively new burst of
deep convection. The overall satellite intensity estimates still
support an initial wind speed of 45 kt for this advisory. Despite
the shear, recent microwave data indicate that Otis has notable
low-level structure, with a ring observed in 37 GHz microwave data.
While this can be associated with rapid intensification, none of
the models show that intensity change occurring, seemingly due to
persistent moderate shear and some dry air in the mid-levels.
Still, it makes sense to stay on the high side of the guidance given
the structure and very warm SSTs in the path. Thus, the new NHC
forecast track is similar to the previous one, showing Otis near
hurricane strength at landfall between 36-48 hours.

Otis continues moving slowly north-northwestward at 6 kt in the flow
between a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest and a ridge to
its east. This flow will likely cause the storm to move to the
north-northwest or northwest through landfall. While most of the
models respond by bringing Otis to the coast of southern Mexico on
Wednesday, the GFS model remains an outlier and keeps Otis weaker
and offshore. The GFS solution seems very unlikely given the
overall synoptic pattern, so the NHC track forecast will put little
weight on its solution, keeping the official forecast about the same
as the previous one, on the eastern side of the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Otis will begin to impact areas of southwest
Mexico on Tuesday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions
are possible beginning late Tuesday along portions of the southern
coast of Mexico, where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch
remain in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 13.6N 97.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 14.4N 98.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 15.5N 98.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 16.4N 99.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 17.3N 100.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 26/1200Z 18.0N 101.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 240237
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Otis Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

...OTIS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT
LANDFALL...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 97.9W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of Otis.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 97.9 West. Otis is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, Otis is expected to reach the coast of southern
Mexico on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Otis is expected to
be near hurricane strength before it reaches southern Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml

RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches through Friday across
Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible within the warning area beginning Tuesday
night.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Otis will begin to affect portions of the
southern coast of Mexico on Tuesday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 240236
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023
0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 97.9W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 97.9W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 97.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.4N 98.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.5N 98.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.4N 99.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.3N 100.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 101.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 97.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 24/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 232347
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Otis Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
700 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

...OTIS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...FORECAST TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 97.8W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of Otis.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 97.8 West. Otis is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, Otis is expected to reach the coast of southern
Mexico on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Otis is expected to
be near hurricane strength before it reaches southern Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml

RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches through Friday across
Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible within the warning area beginning Tuesday
night.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Otis will begin to affect portions of the
southern coast of Mexico on Tuesday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 232200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 12.6N 97.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 97.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.7N 97.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.8N 98.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.6N 98.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.7N 99.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.6N 100.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.2N 101.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
232200Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 97.6W.
23OCT23. TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1616 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231800Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240400Z, 241000Z, 241600Z AND 242200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (NORMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 232032
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

The latest satellite images indicate that Otis is becoming better
organized with a curved band wrapping about halfway around the
center. However, the low-level center is still partially exposed
due to ongoing easterly vertical wind shear. An ASCAT-C pass from
a few hours ago showed peak winds close to 40 kt on the east side
of the system, and the 18Z Dvorak estimates have increased to 3.0/45
kt. Based on all of that data, the initial intensity is increased
to 45 kt.

Otis is moving slowly north-northwestward at 6 kt in the flow
between a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest and a ridge to
its east. The models have trended to a faster solution with the
ECMWF, CMC, and UKMET global models bringing Otis to the coast of
southern Mexico on Wednesday. The GFS, however, remains an outlier
and keeps Otis weaker and offshore. The NHC track forecast leans on
the ECMWF/UKMET/CMC solutions and is a little faster than the
previous one.

Although Otis is expected to remain in a moderate wind shear
environment, abundant moisture and warm SSTs should support gradual
strengthening until Otis makes landfall. The models have
trended higher, and it now appears likely that Otis will be near
hurricane strength when it reaches the coast. Rapid weakening is
expected after Otis moves inland due to the rugged terrain in
southern and southwestern Mexico.

Based on the forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch for portions of southern
Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Otis will begin to impact areas of southwest
Mexico early this week. This rainfall will produce flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions
are possible beginning late Tuesday along portions of the southern
coast of Mexico, where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch
are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 13.1N 97.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 13.7N 97.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 14.8N 98.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 15.6N 98.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 16.7N 99.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 17.6N 100.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 26/1800Z 18.2N 101.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Delgado

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 232031
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Otis Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 97.6W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and a
Hurricane Watch from Lagunas de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of Otis.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 97.6 West. Otis is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, Otis is expected to reach the coast of southern
Mexico on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Otis is
expected to be near hurricane strength before it reaches southern
Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml

RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches through Friday across
Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible within the warning area beginning Tuesday
night.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Otis will begin to affect portions of the
southern coast of Mexico on Tuesday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Delgado


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 232031
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023
2100 UTC MON OCT 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 97.6W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 97.6W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 97.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 13.7N 97.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.8N 98.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.6N 98.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.7N 99.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.6N 100.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.2N 101.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 97.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 231727
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Otis Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
100 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

...OTIS FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN
MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT....


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 97.5W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of the Otis.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was
located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 97.5 West. Otis is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A
north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Otis will reach the southern coast
of Mexico early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml

RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches through Friday across
Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Tuesday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Otis will begin to affect portions of the
southern coast of Mexico on Tuesday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 231600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 11.7N 97.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 97.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 12.6N 97.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.6N 98.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.6N 98.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.4N 99.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.2N 99.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.5N 100.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231600Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 97.5W.
23OCT23. TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1662 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231200Z IS
1002 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232200Z, 240400Z, 241000Z AND 241600Z. REFER TO POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (NORMA) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 231446
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Otis Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

...OTIS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT....


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 97.5W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of the Otis.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was
located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 97.5 West. Otis is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A
north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Otis will reach the southern coast
of Mexico early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml

RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches through Friday across
Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Tuesday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Otis will begin to affect portions of the
southern coast of Mexico on Tuesday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Delgado

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 231444
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

Otis has been relatively steady in strength this morning. Satellite
images indicate that deep convection has been pulsing during the
past several hours. The low-level center remains on the east side
of the thunderstorm activity due to easterly wind shear. The
satellite intensity estimates have not changed much, therefore, the
initial intensity is held at 40 kt.

Otis is moving slowly north-northwestward at 5 kt in the flow
between a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest and a ridge to
its east. There continues to be significant disagreement among the
models with the ECMWF showing Otis moving inland in about 48 hours
while the GFS, HWRF, and HAFS models keep the system offshore during
the next several days. A closer inspection of the guidance suggests
that the differences in these solutions are related to the vertical
depth and convective organization of Otis in the short term, which
affects its forward speed. Since it appears that the ECMWF model
has the best handle on the short term convective trends, the NHC
track forecast continues to favor that solution overall. This
prediction is a little to the left of the previous one, mostly based
on the initial position/motion.

Although Otis is expected to remain in a moderate wind shear
environment, abundant moisture and warm SSTs should support gradual
strengthening as long as Otis remains offshore. The NHC intensity
forecast is a little higher than the previous one, following the
IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. Rapid weakening is expected after
Otis moves inland due to the rugged terrain in southern and
southwestern Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Otis will begin to impact areas of southwest
Mexico early this week. This rainfall will produce flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible by Tuesday night along
portions of the southern coast of Mexico, where a Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 12.0N 97.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 12.6N 97.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 13.6N 98.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 14.6N 98.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 15.4N 99.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 16.2N 99.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 17.5N 100.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Delgado

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 231444
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Otis Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

...OTIS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS II APPROACHES SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT....


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 97.5W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of the Otis.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was
located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 97.5 West. Otis is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A
north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Otis will reach the southern coast
of Mexico early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml

RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches through Friday across
Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Tuesday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Otis will begin to affect portions of the
southern coast of Mexico on Tuesday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Delgado


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 231443
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023
1500 UTC MON OCT 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 97.5W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 97.5W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 97.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 12.6N 97.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 13.6N 98.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.6N 98.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.4N 99.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.2N 99.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.5N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 97.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 23/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 231137
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Otis Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

...OTIS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT....

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 97.3W
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of the Otis.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was
located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 97.3 West. Otis is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A north-northwestward
to northward motion is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Otis will be approaching the southern
coast of Mexico late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml

RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across Guerrero and the
western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall is likely to
produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Tuesday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Otis will begin to affect portions of the
southern coast of Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 231000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 11.2N 97.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 97.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.1N 97.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.0N 97.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.0N 97.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.0N 98.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.6N 98.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.4N 99.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.9N 100.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
231000Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 97.2W.
23OCT23. TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1697 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230600Z IS 1004 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 231600Z, 232200Z, 240400Z AND 241000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17E
(NORMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 230859
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

Deep convection has continued to pulse over the northwestern portion
of Otis overnight. The center was noted near the southeastern edge
of the deep convection in shortwave infrared satellite imagery
earlier in the night. Since that time, the center has become a
little more embedded within the cold cloud tops. As a result, the
initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt for this advisory.
This intensity is a blend of the most recent Dvorak T- and CI-
numbers from TAFB and SAB, and close to the latest SATCON and
D-PRINT objective estimates from UW/CIMSS.

Otis has been moving northward or 360/4 kt. The storm is expected
to move northward to north-northwestward between a ridge over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and a trough over northwestern Mexico.
The ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models all take Otis near the coast
of southern Mexico by midweek, with the ECMWF being the fastest.
That model shows the storm making landfall in southern Mexico in
just over 48 hours. Meanwhile, the GFS continues to depict a weaker
system that stays embedded within the Intertropical Convergence Zone
and meanders well south of Mexico for several days. Since the
majority of the guidance has a track closer or inland over Mexico,
the NHC forecast continues to lean toward that scenario and takes
Otis inland in a few days, but this could occur much sooner. The
NHC track is a blend of the ECMWF, UKMET, Canadian, HMON, and the
HFIP corrected consensus aid.

The storm is over very warm waters and within an environment of
light to moderate shear. These conditions should allow for gradual
strengthening while the system remains over water. Some increase
in shear and the possibility of land interaction could cause the
intensity to level off in a couple of days. The NHC intensity
forecast is again near the higher end of the guidance, close to the
statistical guidance and the HCCA model.

Based on this latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of southern Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Otis will begin to impact areas of southwest
Mexico early this week. This rainfall will produce flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible by Tuesday night or early
Wednesday along portions of the southern coast of Mexico where a
Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 11.4N 97.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 12.1N 97.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 13.0N 97.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 14.0N 97.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 15.0N 98.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 15.6N 98.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 16.4N 99.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 17.9N 100.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 230853
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Otis Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

...OTIS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 97.1W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along
the coast of southern Mexico from Lagunas de Chacahua westward to
Tecpan de Galeana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of the Otis.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was
located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 97.1 West. Otis is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A north-northwestward
to northward motion is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Otis will be approaching the southern
coast of Mexico late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml

RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across Guerrero and the
western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall is likely to
produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Tuesday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Otis will begin to affect portions of the
southern coast of Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 230853
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023
0900 UTC MON OCT 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 97.1W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 97.1W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 97.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 12.1N 97.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 13.0N 97.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.0N 97.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.0N 98.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.6N 98.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.4N 99.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 17.9N 100.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 97.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 23/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 230400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 10.9N 97.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 97.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 11.7N 97.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 12.6N 97.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.6N 97.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.5N 98.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.2N 98.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.1N 99.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.6N 100.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
230400Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 97.3W. 23OCT23.
TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1704 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230000Z IS 1004 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 231000Z, 231600Z, 232200Z AND 240400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17E (NORMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 230241
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023

Convection has been pulsing in the northwestern quadrant of Otis
during the past several hours, with less overall convective
activity than this afternoon. Microwave data and ship reports
suggests the center is southeast of the main area of deep
convection. The initial wind speed is kept at 35 kt, in line with
recent Dvorak T-number estimates.

Otis appears to be moving north-northwest at about 4 kt. The
biggest change to report on this advisory is that there's been a
notable northwest shift in the NHC track forecast. The synoptic
pattern of a trough over northwestern Mexico and a ridge over the
northwestern Caribbean would seem to favor a slow north-northwest
track for the next few days. Much of the GFS-based guidance,
however, appears to be too intertwined with the Intertropical
Convergence Zone, resulting in many of the aids not showing enough
motion during the next few days or even a track southward.
This doesn't seem realistic, and I've adjusted the forecast a large
distance to the northwest, with further northwest track changes
possible on later forecasts.

The storm will likely be in an environment of light-to-moderate
shear, with fairly high mid-level humidity over very warm water.
These conditions should promote gradual strengthening, which is
shown to begin after 12 hours to give the system some time to
re-align vertically. An increase in shear and possible land
interaction is forecast to cause Otis to level off in intensity
around midweek. This NHC intensity prediction is near the higher
end of the guidance, closer to the statistical guidance than the
dynamical models, the latter of which seem to be too low given the
large-scale environment.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 11.1N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 11.7N 97.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 12.6N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 13.6N 97.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 14.5N 98.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 15.2N 98.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 16.1N 99.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 17.6N 100.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 230240
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Otis Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023

...OTIS NOW FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MEXICO IN A FEW
DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 97.3W
ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of the Otis.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was
located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 97.3 West. Otis is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). This general
motion is anticipated for the next several days. On the forecast
track, the center of Otis will be approaching the southern coast of
Mexico on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall may impact coastal areas of southern
Mexico from Oaxaca to Guerrero later this week.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 230240
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023
0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 97.3W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 97.3W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 97.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 11.7N 97.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 12.6N 97.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 13.6N 97.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.5N 98.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.2N 98.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.1N 99.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 17.6N 100.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 97.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 222200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 10.2N 96.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2N 96.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 10.7N 97.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 11.6N 96.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 12.7N 96.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 13.5N 97.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 13.9N 97.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 14.2N 97.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 14.5N 98.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 14.9N 98.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
222200Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 96.9W. 22OCT23.
TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1752 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221800Z IS 1004 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230400Z, 231000Z, 231600Z AND 232200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17E (NORMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 222041
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023

The tropical depression south of Mexico has strengthened into
Tropical Storm Otis. Satellite imagery shows that the center is just
east of an increasing area of deep convection that has continued to
consolidate. With this slight improvement in structure, the initial
intensity has been raised to 35 kt, which is below the 3.0/45 kt
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.

Otis is moving northward at 4 kt. A continued slow northward motion
is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves in a
light steering flow between a ridge to its northeast and a trough to
its northwest. By midweek, the system is expected to weaken as it
shifts northwestward in the low-level flow. However, by the end of
the forecast period, there is quite a bit of spread in the track
guidance making the long-term forecast somewhat uncertain. The NHC
track forecast is near the various consensus aids and a little to
the north of the previous one at days 4 and 5.

Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days
while the storm remains in generally conducive environmental
conditions. However, beyond that time, an increase in vertical wind
shear should cause slow weakening, and most of the models show the
system decoupling or dissipating by the end of the forecast period.
The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 10.3N 96.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 10.7N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 11.6N 96.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 12.7N 96.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 13.5N 97.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 13.9N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 14.2N 97.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 14.5N 98.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 14.9N 98.2W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 222039
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Otis Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM OTIS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 96.9W
ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of the Otis.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was
located near latitude 10.3 North, longitude 96.9 West. Otis is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this
slow motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. A slow
northwestward motion is forecast to begin by Wednesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall may impact coastal areas of southern
Mexico from Oaxaca to Guerrero later this week.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 222039
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023
2100 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 96.9W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 96.9W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 96.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 10.7N 97.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 11.6N 96.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 12.7N 96.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 13.5N 97.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 13.9N 97.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 14.2N 97.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 14.5N 98.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 14.9N 98.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.3N 96.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 221448
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023

The area of low pressure (91E) that NHC has been monitoring has now
become a tropical depression well offshore of southern Mexico.
Satellite images show that deep convection has been increasing and
consolidating near the center, and ASCAT data from several hours ago
indicated that the system had developed a well-defined center.
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 2.5/35 kt, but
the initial intensity is set a little lower at 30 kt since the ASCAT
pass suggested that the Dvorak estimates have been running a little
high.

The depression is drifting northward at 2 kt. A continued slow
northward motion is expected during the next couple of days as the
system moves in the light steering flow between a ridge to its
northeast and a trough to its northwest. Beyond a few days, the
weakening system will likely turn westward in the low-level flow.
However, by the end of the forecast period, there is quite a bit of
spread in the track guidance making the long-term forecast somewhat
uncertain. The NHC track forecast is near the various consensus
aids.

Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days
while the depression remains in generally conducive environmental
conditions. However, beyond that time, an increase in vertical wind
shear should cause slow weakening, and most of the models show the
system decoupling or dissipating by the end of the forecast period.
The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 9.9N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 10.2N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 10.8N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 11.8N 96.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 12.8N 96.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 13.4N 97.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 13.7N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 13.9N 98.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 13.9N 98.6W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci

>