Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for NORMA-23
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 231600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E (NORMA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E (NORMA) WARNING NR 024
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 17E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 24.7N 107.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7N 107.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.4N 107.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231600Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 107.7W.
23OCT23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E (NORMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
681 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 231200Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 8
FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 231441
TCDEP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Norma Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 AM MDT Mon Oct 23 2023

Norma made landfall as a tropical depression around 1030 UTC fairly
close to Eldorado in the state of Sinaloa. The system has lacked
organized deep convection for more than 12 hours, and therefore, no
longer qualifies as a tropical cyclone. The remnant low is
estimated to have maximum winds around 30 kt, which are likely
confined to the waters just off the coast of Sinaloa.

The remnant low is expected to weaken and dissipate over the rugged
terrain of Mexico later today or tonight. The remnant moisture
could still result in areas of heavy rain in portions of northern
Mexico throughout the day.

This is the last NHC advisory on Norma.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 24.9N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 24/0000Z 25.4N 107.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 231440
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Norma Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 AM MDT Mon Oct 23 2023

...NORMA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 107.7W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF CULIACAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Norma
was located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 107.7 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph
(7 km/h) and this general motion is expected through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Norma is expected to dissipate later today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Norma.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 231440
TCMEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
1500 UTC MON OCT 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 107.7W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 107.7W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 107.9W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.4N 107.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 107.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 231000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (NORMA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (NORMA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 24.5N 108.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5N 108.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.7N 107.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
231000Z POSITION NEAR 24.6N 108.2W.
23OCT23. TROPICAL STORM 17E (NORMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 661 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230600Z IS 993
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 230841
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Norma Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
300 AM MDT Mon Oct 23 2023

Norma has weakened to a tropical depression as the cyclone has been
void of deep convection since yesterday afternoon. A couple of ASCAT
overpass between 0354 and 0441 UTC showed peak winds in the 31 to 33
kt range, and assuming additional weakening has occurred since that
time, the initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt. Dry mid-level
air has been entrained into the circulation from the northwest, and
given the current strong shear over the system, it appears unlikely
that significant deep convection will return. Norma should move
onshore the coast of western mainland Mexico later this morning, and
it is expected to rapidly weaken and either become post-tropical or
dissipate today over the high terrain of western Mexico.

Norma took a southeastward jog overnight, but it appears to have
resumed an eastward motion at about 6 kt. A general eastward to
motion is expected to continue until dissipation occurs. The more
southward initial position required a southward adjustment of the
track forecast, but it otherwise remains near the center of the
guidance envelope.

Heavy rainfall associated flooding remains the primary threat with
this system.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Norma will diminish across
portions of western Mexico today. Additional isolated heavy
rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding and mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

2. Gusty winds are possible along the coast of Sinaloa Mexico this
morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 24.5N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 24.7N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 230841
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Norma Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
300 AM MDT Mon Oct 23 2023

...NORMA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...STILL A THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 108.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning along the coast of mainland Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norma
was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 108.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue until dissipation occurs later today
or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Norma is forecast
to move inland along the coast of the Mexican state of Sinaloa later
this morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before
Norma reaches the coast of Mexico. Weakening and dissipation is
anticipated once Norma moves inland.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

RAINFALL: Rainfall from Norma will diminish across northern
portions of Sinaloa, northern Durango and southern Chihuahua later
today. Additional isolated totals of 1 to 2 inches are possible,
along with isolated flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

WIND: Gusty winds are possible along the coast of mainland Mexico
within the state of Sinaloa this morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur for
the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 230841
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
0900 UTC MON OCT 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 108.4W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 108.4W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 108.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.7N 107.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 108.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 230551
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norma Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
1200 AM MDT Mon Oct 23 2023

...NORMA TAKES A SOUTHEASTWARD JOG AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO...
...RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 108.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF CULIACAN MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Huatabampito to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norma was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 108.8 West. Norma has
moved southeastward during the past several hours, but an eastward
motion near 5 mph (7 km/h) is expected to resume later this morning.
On the forecast track, the center of Norma is forecast to approach
the west coast of mainland Mexico overnight and move inland within
the tropical storm warning area later this morning.

Recently received satellite wind data indicate that the maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Norma is expected to move over the west coast of mainland
Mexico as a tropical storm later this morning. Rapid weakening is
anticipated once Norma moves inland over mainland Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing within portions of the
tropical storm warning area.

RAINFALL: Norma will produce additional rainfall totals of 4 to 6
inches with storm total maxima of 18 inches in and near Sinaloa
through today. These rains will produce flash and urban flooding,
along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible along the west coast of
mainland Mexico within the tropical storm warning area. Near the
coast, the coastal flooding will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur for
the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 230400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (NORMA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (NORMA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 24.9N 109.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9N 109.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 25.3N 108.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.0N 107.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
230400Z POSITION NEAR 25.0N 108.9W. 23OCT23.
TROPICAL STORM 17E (NORMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
625 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230000Z IS 990 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 231000Z, 231600Z AND 232200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 230239
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023

The center of Norma is exposed tonight with all of the deep
convection displaced well northeast of the center. The initial wind
speed is lowered to 50 kt, in accordance with Dvorak estimates
assuming some weakening from earlier scatterometer data. While the
global models re-develop some deep convection overnight near the
center over the warm Gulf of California waters, strong shear is
expected to cause Norma to weaken as it approaches mainland Mexico.
Norma is forecast to continue to move slowly east-northeastward
through landfall early Monday, then rapidly weaken and dissipate as
a tropical cyclone over the elevated terrain in less than 24 hours.
Only a slight southward adjustment was made to the track forecast.
Heavy rains causing flash floods and mudslides are expected to be
the main hazards with Norma.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Norma will continue to impact locations
in and near Sinaloa into Monday. This rainfall will produce flash
and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
west coast of mainland Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area
through tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 25.0N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 25.3N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/0000Z 26.0N 107.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 230237
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norma Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023

...NORMA COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVERNIGHT OVER SINALOA...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 109.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM W OF CULIACAN MEXICO
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to San Evaristo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Huatabampito to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere along the west coast of mainland Mexico should
monitor the progress of Norma.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norma was
located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 109.0 West. Norma is
moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). On the
forecast track, the center of Norma is forecast to approach the
west coast of mainland Mexico tonight and move inland within the
tropical storm warning area early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Norma is expected to move over the west coast of
mainland Mexico as a tropical storm early Monday. Rapid weakening
is anticipated once Norma moves inland over mainland Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing within portions of the
tropical storm warning area.

RAINFALL: Norma will produce additional rainfall totals of 4 to
6 inches with storm total maxima of 18 inches in and near Sinaloa
into Monday. These rains will produce flash and urban flooding,
along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible along the west coast of
mainland Mexico within the tropical storm warning area. Near the
coast, the coastal flooding will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur for
the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 230236
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 109.0W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 130SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 109.0W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 109.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.3N 108.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.0N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 109.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 23/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 222341
TCPEP2


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norma Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
600 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023

...NORMA MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
...FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES IN MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 109.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF CULIACAN MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to San Evaristo
* Huatabampito to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere along the west coast of mainland Mexico should
monitor the progress of Norma.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norma was
located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 109.2 West. Norma is
moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the
east-northeast is expected tonight. On the forecast track, the
center of Norma is forecast to approach the west coast of mainland
Mexico today and move inland within the tropical storm warning area
early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, and Norma is
expected to move over the west coast of mainland Mexico as a
tropical storm early Monday. Rapid weakening is anticipated once
Norma moves inland over mainland Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 155 miles (250 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing within portions of the
tropical storm warning area in Baja California Sur and mainland
Mexico.

RAINFALL: Norma will produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches with
maxima of 18 inches across Sinaloa into Monday. These rains will
produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding along the coast of Baja California
Sur should gradually subside today. Coastal flooding is possible
along the west coast of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm
warning area. Near the coast, the coastal flooding will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur for
the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 222200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (NORMA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (NORMA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 24.8N 109.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.8N 109.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 25.1N 108.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 25.5N 108.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
222200Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 109.3W. 22OCT23.
TROPICAL STORM 17E (NORMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
620 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221800Z IS 987 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230400Z, 231000Z AND 231600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18E (OTIS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 222043
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
300 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023

Norma continues to have periodic bursts of convection. Despite its
sheared appearance on visible imagery, recent satellite wind data
showed that the surface circulation has strengthened slightly.
Based on these observations, the initial intensity has been raised
to 55 kt, and the wind radii have been adjusted outward. Little
changes in strength is expected in the next 12 h or so before
landfall. Norma is forecast to move inland early tomorrow, rapidly
weaken, and dissipate over elevated terrain in a day or so.

Norma has turned northeastward at an estimated 040/3 kt. A turn to
the east-northeast is predicted later today as storm approaches
the coast of mainland Mexico. The track guidance is starting to
coming into better agreement, and the guidance envelope has shifted
to the south this cycle. The latest NHC track forecast is nudged
south as well following the trend. Regardless of the exact
landfall location of the center, heavy rainfall and gusty winds
will continue along the coast of the Mexican state of Sinaloa and
inland through tonight and into tomorrow morning.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Norma will continue to impact Sinaloa into
Monday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
west coast of mainland Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area
through tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 24.9N 109.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 25.1N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 25.5N 108.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 222041
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norma Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
300 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023

...NORMA STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUE IN MAINLAND
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 109.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM W OF CULIACAN MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SSW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the western Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to Cabo
San Lucas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to San Evaristo
* Huatabampito to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere along the west coast of mainland Mexico should
monitor the progress of Norma.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norma was
located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 109.4 West. Norma is
moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the
east-northeast is expected later today and tonight. On the forecast
track, the center of Norma is forecast to approach the west coast
of mainland Mexico today and move inland within the tropical storm
warning area tonight or early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, and Norma is
expected to move over the west coast of mainland Mexico as a
tropical storm. Rapid weakening is anticipated once Norma moves
inland over mainland Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 155 miles (250 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing within portions of the
tropical storm warning area in Baja California Sur and mainland
Mexico.

RAINFALL: Norma will produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches with
maxima of 18 inches across Sinaloa into Monday. These rains will
produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding along the coast of Baja California
Sur should gradually subside today. Coastal flooding is possible
along the west coast of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm
warning area. Near the coast, the coastal flooding will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur for
the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 222041
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
2100 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 109.4W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 135SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 109.4W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 109.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.1N 108.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.5N 108.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 109.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 23/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 221751
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norma Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
1200 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023

...NORMA MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
...ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO MAINLAND
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 109.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF CULIACAN MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santa Fe to San Evaristo
* Huatabampito to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norma was
located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 109.4 West. Norma is
moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the
east-northeast is expected later today and tonight. On the forecast
track, the center of Norma is forecast to approach the west coast
of mainland Mexico today and move inland within the tropical storm
warning area tonight or early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, and Norma is
expected to approach the west coast of mainland Mexico as a tropical
storm. Rapid weakening is anticipated once Norma moves inland over
mainland Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing within portions of the
tropical storm warning area in Baja California Sur and mainland
Mexico.

RAINFALL: Norma will produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches with
maxima of 18 inches across Sinaloa into Monday. These rains will
produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding along the coast of Baja California
Sur should gradually subside today. Coastal flooding is possible
along the west coast of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm
warning area. Near the coast, the coastal flooding will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur for
the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 221437
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023

Bursts of deep convection have been wrapping around the northern
portion of Norma's center overnight and into the morning. Microwave
satellite imagery from an AMSR2 0931 UTC pass also showed a decent
curved band around the northern side of the circulation. The
initial intensity is held at 50 kt based on the previous cycle's
satellite wind data and is similar to the subjective Dvorak current
intensity estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB. Norma is
expected to maintain its intensity for the next 12 h or so. After
the storm moves inland over mainland Mexico, rapid weakening and
dissipation over the high terrain is predicted to occur within a day
or so.

Norma is still moving north-northeastward at about 4 kt. The most
recent model guidance suggests Norma will make a turn to the
northeast shortly as the storm crosses the Gulf of California. There
remains a fairly large spread in the track guidance, with the GFS on
the southern side and ECMWF on the northern side of the envelope.
The latest NHC track forecast has shifted northward by about 15 n mi
from the previous advisory, likely due to the recent
north-northeastward motion. Regardless of the exact landfall
location of the center, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected
to spread along the coast of the Mexican state of Sinaola and inland
through tonight and into tomorrow morning.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Norma will continue to impact Sinaloa into
Monday. Rainfall will continue to diminish across the southern
portions of Baja California Sur early this morning. This rainfall
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue through this afternoon
within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area over the southern
Baja California peninsula.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread onshore along
portions of the west coast of mainland Mexico within the Tropical
Storm Warning area through tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 24.7N 109.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 25.2N 109.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 25.7N 108.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 221437
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norma Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023

...NORMA MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
...ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO MAINLAND
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 109.6W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM W OF CULIACAN MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santa Fe to San Evaristo
* Huatabampito to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norma was
located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 109.6 West. Norma is
moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A
northeastward motion is expected to begin later this morning,
followed by a turn toward the east-northeast later today and
tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Norma is forecast to
approach the west coast of mainland Mexico today and move inland
within the tropical storm warning area tonight or early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today, and Norma is
expected to approach the west coast of mainland Mexico as a tropical
storm. Rapid weakening is anticipated once Norma moves inland over
mainland Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing within portions of the
tropical storm warning area in Baja California Sur. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to spread onshore along portions of the
warning area along the west coast of mainland Mexico through
tonight.

RAINFALL: Norma will produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches with
maxima of 18 inches across the southern portion of Baja California
Sur through today and through Sinaloa into Monday. These rains
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding along the coast of Baja California
Sur should gradually subside today. Coastal flooding is possible
along the west coast of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm
warning area. Near the coast, the coastal flooding will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur for
the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 221436
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
1500 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 109.6W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 150SE 45SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 109.6W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 109.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.2N 109.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.7N 108.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 109.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 22/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 221146
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norma Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
600 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT SPREADING INTO MAINLAND
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 109.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM W OF CULIACAN MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santa Fe to San Evaristo
* Huatabampito to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norma was
located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 109.7 West. Norma is
moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A
northeastward motion is expected to begin later this morning,
followed by a turn toward the east-northeast later today and
tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Norma is forecast to
approach the west coast of mainland Mexico today and move inland
within the tropical storm warning area tonight or early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, and Norma is
expected to approach the west coast of mainland Mexico as a tropical
storm. Rapid weakening is anticipated once Norma moves inland over
mainland Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. An automated observing site near Topolobampo,
Mexico, reported a wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) within the past few
hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing within portions of the
tropical storm warning area in Baja California Sur. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to spread onshore along portions of the
warning area along the west coast of mainland Mexico through
tonight.

RAINFALL: Norma will produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches with
maxima of 18 inches across the southern portion of Baja California
Sur through today and through Sinaloa into Monday. These rains
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding along the coast of Baja California
Sur should gradually subside today. Coastal flooding is possible
along the west coast of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm
warning area. Near the coast, the coastal flooding will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur for
the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 220843
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
300 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023

Convective bursts have redeveloped over the northeastern potion of
Norma's circulation, but the center remains exposed due to strong
southwesterly shear. Overnight shortwave infrared satellite
imagery and a couple of fortuitous ASCAT overpass showed that
the center of Norma exited the east coast of the Baja California
peninsula a little farther north than previously estimated.
Therefore, the initial position for this advisory has been adjusted
northward accordingly. Peak winds in the scatterometer passes were
around 45 kt, but owing to that instrument's typical low bias the
initial intensity has only been lowered to 50 kt.

Since most of the Norma's circulation is forecast to remain over
the Gulf of California waters today, little change in strength is
expected in the short term. Once Norma moves inland over mainland
Mexico, rapid weakening and dissipation over the high terrain is
expected.

The initial motion estimate is north-northeastward or 25 degrees at
6 kt. Most of the dynamical model guidance indicates that Norma will
turn northeast, and then east-northeast during the next 12 to 24
hours, and the official forecast follows this scenario. There is
fairly significant short-term spread in the guidance with the GFS
taking the system more eastward, while the HWRF and ECMWF models
depicted a more northeastward motion through landfall. The NHC
track has been shifted significantly north of the previous advisory
due to the more northward initial position, and the new track lies
near the middle of the guidance envelope. It should be noted that
although there is still a fair amount of uncertainty on exactly
where and when the center of Norma will cross the coast of mainland
Mexico, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are expected to spread
onshore along much of the coast of the Mexican state of Sinaloa
through tonight.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Norma will continue to impact Sinaloa into
Monday. Rainfall will continue to diminish across the southern
portions of Baja California Sur early this morning. This rainfall
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue through this afternoon
within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area over the southern
Baja California peninsula.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread onshore along
portions of the west coast of mainland Mexico within the Tropical
Storm Warning area through tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 24.5N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 25.0N 109.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 25.3N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1800Z 25.7N 107.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 220843
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norma Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
300 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT SPREADING INTO MAINLAND
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 109.8W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM W OF CULIACAN MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
along the coast of mainland Mexico northward to Huatabampito.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santa Fe to San Evaristo
* Huatabampito to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norma was
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 109.8 West. Norma is
moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A
northeastward motion is expected to begin this morning, followed by
a turn toward the east-northeast later today and tonight. On the
forecast track, the center of Norma is forecast to approach the
west coast of mainland Mexico today and move inland within the
tropical storm warning area on tonight or early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today, and Norma is expected
to approach the west coast of mainland Mexico as a tropical storm.
Rapid weakening is anticipated once Norma moves inland over mainland
Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. An automated observing site near Topolobampo,
Mexico, reported a wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) within the past
few hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing within portions of the
tropical storm warning area in Baja California Sur. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to spread onshore along portions of the
warning area along the west coast of mainland Mexico through
tonight.

RAINFALL: Norma will produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches with
maxima of 18 inches across the southern portion of Baja California
Sur through today and through Sinaloa into Monday. These rains
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding along the coast of Baja California
Sur should gradually subside today. Coastal flooding is possible
along the west coast of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm
warning area. Near the coast, the coastal flooding will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur for
the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 220842
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
0900 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 109.8W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 210SE 180SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 109.8W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 109.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.0N 109.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.3N 108.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.7N 107.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 109.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 22/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 220557
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norma Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
1200 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM NORMA SPREADING INTO WESTERN MAINLAND
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 109.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM WNW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santa Fe to San Evaristo
* Topolobampo to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norma was
located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 109.6 West. Norma is
moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general
motion should continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward
the east-northeast on later today and tonight. On the forecast
track, the center is forecast to approach the west coast of
mainland Mexico today and move inland within the tropical storm
warning area on tonight or early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected during the next day or two, but Norma
is expected to approach the west coast of mainland Mexico as a
tropical storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing within the tropical
storm warning areas in Baja California Sur. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area along the west coast of
mainland Mexico later this morning.

RAINFALL: Norma will produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches with
maxima of 18 inches across the southern portion of Baja California
Sur through today and through Sinaloa into Monday. These rains
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds within the tropical storm warning
area in Baja California Sur through the overnight hours. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Coastal flooding is possible along the west coast of mainland
Mexico within the tropical storm warning area.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur for
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 220244
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023

Norma continues to move across the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula this evening. The satellite depiction of the
ill-defined low-level center has been difficult to track through the
terrain as the system has decoupled from the mid-level center.
Infrared satellite imagery indicates that there continues to be
bursts of convection on the northwest side. The land interaction,
increasingly southerly shear and dry air is causing Norma to weaken.
Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates for this advisory range
from 55 to 60 kt. Given the current satellite depiction and the
satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity for this
advisory is set to 55 kt.

The tropical storm is moving north-northeastward or 30 degrees at
5 kt. The system will move across the southern portion of Baja
California Sur through tonight. Norma should emerge over the
southern Gulf of California early Sunday, then move northeastward to
east-northeastward and make landfall along the coast of Sinaloa in
western Mexico within the tropical storm warning area. The updated
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous, and lies between
the simple and corrected consensus aids.

Norma is expected to continue weakening due to the aforementioned
vertical wind shear, drier air, and land interaction. Once Norma
moves inland over mainland Mexico, it will quickly dissipate over
the high terrain. The intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory. The official forecast shows a 48 hour remnant
low point for continuity, however it is possible that the system
could be dissipated by that time.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Norma will continue to impact southern portions
of Baja California Sur through Sunday, and through Sinaloa into
Monday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue through tonight within
the Tropical Storm Warning area over the southern Baja California
peninsula.

3. Norma is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to portions
of the west coast of mainland Mexico within the Tropical Storm
Warning area beginning early Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 23.5N 109.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 24.1N 109.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 23/0000Z 24.5N 108.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 24.9N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/0000Z 25.2N 106.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 220243
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norma Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 109.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM W OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santa Fe to San Evaristo
* Topolobampo to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norma was
located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 109.7 West. Norma is
moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general
motion should continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward
the northeast and east-northeast on Sunday and Sunday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Norma is expected to continue moving
across the southern portion of Baja California Sur tonight. Norma is
forecast to move toward the west coast of mainland Mexico on Sunday
and move inland within the tropical storm warning area on Sunday
night or early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected during the next
couple of days, and Norma is expected to approach the west coast of
mainland Mexico as a tropical storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing within the tropical
storm warning areas in Baja California Sur. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area along the west coast of
mainland Mexico by early Sunday.

RAINFALL: Norma will produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches with
maxima of 18 inches across the southern portion of Baja California
Sur through Sunday and through Sinaloa into Monday. These rains
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds within the tropical storm warning
area in Baja California Sur. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is
possible along the west coast of mainland Mexico within the tropical
storm warning area.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur for
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 220242
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
0300 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 109.7W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 240SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 109.7W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 109.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.1N 109.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.5N 108.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.9N 107.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.2N 106.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 109.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 22/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 212346
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norma Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
600 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023

...NORMA NOW A TROPICAL STORM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 109.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM W OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning from
Todos Santos to Los Barriles to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santa Fe to San Evaristo
* Topolobampo to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norma was
located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 109.8 West. Norma is
moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general
motion should continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward
the northeast and east-northeast on Sunday and Sunday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Norma is expected to continue moving
across the southern portion of Baja California Sur tonight. Norma is
forecast to move toward the west coast of mainland Mexico on Sunday
and move inland within the tropical storm warning area on Sunday
night or early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected during the next
couple of days, and Norma is expected to approach the west coast of
mainland Mexico as a tropical storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the tropical
storm warning areas in Baja California Sur. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area along the west coast of
Mexico by early Sunday.

RAINFALL: Norma will produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches with
maxima of 18 inches across the southern portion of Baja California
Sur through Sunday and across much of Sinaloa through Monday. These
rains will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in
areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds within the tropical storm warning
area in Baja California Sur. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is
possible along the west coast of mainland Mexico within the tropical
storm warning area.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur for
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 212039
TCDEP2

Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
300 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023

Norma made landfall along the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula just west-northwest of Cabo San Lucas around 2015 UTC with
estimated maximum winds of 70 kt. The center of the tropical cyclone
has become exposed this afternoon, as increasing southerly shear
stripped away the associated deep convection. An Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft sampled Norma shortly before landfall and found
hurricane-force SFMR winds in the northwest quadrant, with a peak of
73 kt. A center dropsonde supported a minimum pressure of around 974
mb. Assuming some continued weakening since the plane departed, the
landfall and advisory intensity is set at 70 kt.

With Norma becoming a more shallow vortex, it has slowed down and
turned north-northeastward (15 degrees/5 kt). The cyclone will move
across the southern portion of Baja California Sur through tonight,
with continued weakening expected due to the negative influences of
increasing shear, drier air, and land interaction. Norma should
emerge over the southern Gulf of California as a tropical storm
early Sunday, then move northeastward and make landfall along the
coast of Sinaloa in western Mexico within the tropical storm warning
area. The updated NHC track forecast has been nudged slightly north
of the previous prediction, in agreement with the latest multi-model
consensus aids. Once Norma moves inland, it will quickly dissipate
over the rugged terrain of western Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Norma will continue to impact southern portions
of Baja California Sur through Sunday, and through Sinaloa into
Monday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

2. Hurricane conditions will continue for the next few hours within
the Hurricane Warning area over the far southern Baja California
peninsula.

3. Norma is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to portions
of the west coast of Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area
beginning early Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 23.1N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 23.7N 109.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 22/1800Z 24.5N 109.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 23/0600Z 24.8N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 23/1800Z 25.1N 107.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 212039
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
300 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023

...NORMA HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 110.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM W OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Los Barriles to San Evaristo
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe
* Topolobampo to Mazatlan

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 110.0 West. Norma is moving
toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion
should continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northeast and east-northeast on Sunday and Sunday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Norma is expected to move across the
southern portion of Baja California Sur tonight. Norma is forecast
to move toward the west coast of Mexico on Sunday and move inland
within the tropical storm warning area on Sunday night or early
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected during the
next couple of days, and Norma is expected to approach the west
coast of Mexico as a tropical storm.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occurring within
the hurricane and tropical storm warnings areas in Baja California
Sur. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
along the west coast of Mexico by early Sunday.

RAINFALL: Norma will produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches with
maxima of 18 inches across the southern portion of Baja California
Sur through Sunday and across much of Sinaloa through Monday. These
rains will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in
areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning
area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Coastal flooding is possible along the west coast
of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm warning area.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur for
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 212038
TCMEP2

HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
2100 UTC SAT OCT 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 110.0W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 360SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 110.0W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 110.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.7N 109.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.5N 109.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.8N 108.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.1N 107.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 110.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 22/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ62 KNHC 212015
TCUEP2

Hurricane Norma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
215 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023

...NORMA MAKES LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...

Satellite imagery indicates that Norma has made landfall in Baja
California Sur near El Pozo de Cota, which is west-northwest of Cabo
San Lucas. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 80 mph
(130 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is estimated at 978 mb
(28.88 inches).

SUMMARY OF 215 PM MDT...2015 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 110.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 211753
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
1200 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THE CENTER OF NORMA STILL
OFFSHORE JUST WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 110.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM W OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Los Barriles to San Evaristo
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe
* Topolobampo to Mazatlan

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 110.3 West. Norma is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion should
continue through this evening, followed by a turn toward the
northeast and east-northeast with a reduction in forward speed
tonight through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Norma
is expected to move over the southern portion of Baja California Sur
within the hurricane warning area today. Norma is forecast to move
toward the west coast of Mexico on Sunday night and move inland
within the tropical storm watch area by early Monday.

Data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate that
maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected during the next
few days, but Norma is expected to remain a hurricane while it moves
over the southern portion of Baja California Sur.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). An observation station in Cabo San Lucas, Baja
California Sur, recently reported a gust of 74 mph (120 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data from the
aircraft is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occurring within
the hurricane and tropical storm warnings areas in Baja California
Sur. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
along the west coast of Mexico by early Sunday.

RAINFALL: Norma will produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches with
maxima of 18 inches across the southern portion of Baja California
Sur through Sunday and across much of Sinaloa through Monday. These
rains will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in
areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning
area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Coastal flooding is possible along the west coast
of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm warning area.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur for
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 211450
TCDEP2

Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023

Radar data from Los Cabos, Mexico, show the center of Norma is
situated just west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas this morning. Surface
observations indicate that hurricane and tropical storm conditions
are spreading over southern portions of Baja California Sur within
the warning areas. Earlier passive microwave images and recent radar
data indicate convection in the southern portion of Norma's inner
core has eroded. The hurricane is also vertically tilted due to
southerly shear, with the low-level center displaced slightly south
of the mid-level center. These structural changes suggest weakening
has occurred, which is consistent with the latest subjective and
objective intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS. Based on
the blend of those estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 85
kt for this advisory.

Norma is moving just west of due north (355/7 kt) this morning. The
hurricane is expected to make landfall in the hurricane warning area
this afternoon, cross the southern portion of Baja California Sur
tonight, and emerge over the southern Gulf of California on Sunday.
Then, the weakening cyclone should turn toward the northeast and
east-northeast and slowly approach the coast of Sinaloa in western
Mexico on Sunday night into early Monday. The updated NHC track
forecast shows a slightly more gradual turn in the near term and
lies slightly west of the previous one. Norma is forecast to move
inland by early Monday and dissipate over the rugged terrain of
western Mexico by Tuesday.

Less favorable environmental conditions (increasing southwesterly
shear and reduced mid-level moisture) and land interaction with the
Baja California peninsula should cause Norma to continue weakening
during the next couple of days. This is consistent with the
deteriorating satellite structure of Norma and supported by all of
the latest dynamical and statistical guidance. The updated NHC
forecast is lower than the previous advisory, following the
multi-model consensus trends, but lies on the higher end of the
guidance envelope. Norma is still forecast to reach the west coast
of Mexico by early Monday as a tropical storm.


Key Messages:

1. Norma is expected to bring life-threatening hurricane conditions
and a dangerous storm surge to portions of the far southern Baja
California peninsula within the hurricane warning area today and
tonight.

2. Heavy rains from Norma will continue to impact southern portions
of Baja California Sur through Sunday, with heavy rains reaching
Sinaloa later today, continuing through Monday. This rainfall will
produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain.

3. Norma is forecast to approach the west coast of Mexico as a
tropical storm on Sunday night and Monday, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for a portion of that area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 22.7N 110.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 23.4N 110.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
24H 22/1200Z 24.1N 109.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 23/0000Z 24.5N 108.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 24.7N 107.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/0000Z 25.1N 106.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 211449
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS, FLASH FLOODING, AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 110.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM W OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for Las Islas Marias.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Los Barriles to San Evaristo
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe
* Topolobampo to Mazatlan

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 110.3 West. Norma is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion should
continue through this evening, followed by a turn toward the
northeast and east-northeast with a reduction in forward speed
tonight through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Norma
is expected to move over the southern portion of Baja California Sur
within the hurricane warning area today. Norma is forecast to move
toward the west coast of Mexico on Sunday night and move inland
within the tropical storm watch area by early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected during the next
few days, but Norma is expected to remain a hurricane while it moves
over the southern portion of Baja California Sur.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). An observation station in Cabo San Lucas, Baja California
Sur, recently reported sustained winds of 55 mph (89 km/h) and a
gust to 72 mph (116 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Baja California Sur today. Tropical storm conditions
are occurring in the warning areas in Baja California Sur. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the west
coast of Mexico by early Sunday.

RAINFALL: Norma will produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches with
maxima of 18 inches across the southern portion of Baja California
Sur through Sunday and across much of Sinaloa through Monday. These
rains will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in
areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning
area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Coastal flooding is possible along the west coast
of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm warning area.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur for
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 211448
TCMEP2

HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
1500 UTC SAT OCT 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 110.3W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 110.3W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 110.2W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.4N 110.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.1N 109.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.5N 108.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.7N 107.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.1N 106.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 110.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 21/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 211154
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
600 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS, FLASH FLOODING, AND A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 110.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM WSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Los Barriles to San Evaristo
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe
* Topolobampo to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 110.1 West. Norma is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northeastward to
east-northeastward turn with a reduction in forward speed is
expected tonight through Monday. On the forecast track, the center
of Norma is expected to move over the southern portion of Baja
California Sur within the hurricane warning area later today. Norma
is forecast to move toward the west coast of Mexico on Sunday night
and move inland within the tropical storm watch area on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is expected during
the next few days, but Norma is expected to remain a hurricane while
it moves over the southern portion of Baja California Sur.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km). An observation station in Cabo San Lucas, Baja
California Sur, recently reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76
km/h) and a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Baja California Sur today. Tropical storm conditions
are occurring in the warning areas in Baja California Sur. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in Las Islas Marias this morning and
are expected in the warning area along the west coast of Mexico on
Sunday.

RAINFALL: Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with local maxima of 15 inches across the far southern
portion of Baja California Sur through Sunday and across portions
of Sinaloa through Monday. These rains will likely produce flash
and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of
higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning
area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Coastal flooding is possible along the west
coast of Baja California Sur within the tropical storm warning area.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur.
These swells will spread northward along the coast of western Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 210835
TCDEP2

Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
300 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023

This morning's satellite presentation is less impressive than what
was observed yesterday. The cloud tops associated with the central
dense overcast have warmed quite a bit while the cloud mass
has decreased in areal coverage. The subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB yield 95 kt while the objective
analyses from UW-CIMSS average around 100 kt. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt for this
advisory.

Although most of the dynamical and statistical intensity models
show gradual weakening through the period due to increasing shear
and a stabilizing surrounding atmosphere, Norma is still expected to
be a hurricane while it moves over the Baja California peninsula
later today. Toward the end of the period, Norma is expected to
move inland and over the higher terrain of the state of
Sinaloa on Monday and quickly dissipate. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one and closely follows the
various consensus intensity aids.

Norma's initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/8 kt,
with the hurricane moving between a deep-layer trough to its
northwest and subtropical high pressure located over central Mexico.
A turn to the northeast to east-northeast is forecast this evening,
while the hurricane moves over the southern Baja California
peninsula and rounds the northwestern periphery of the
above-mentioned mid-tropospheric high. On the forecast track, Norma
should emerge over the Gulf of California and approach the Mexico
state of Sinaloa coast on Monday. Although there is some
along-track forward speed uncertainty in the global and regional
track guidance, the HFIP HCCA corrected consensus model has been
fairly consistent in both Norma's predicted forward speed and track
trajectory, and the NHC forecast follows suit.


Key Messages:

1. Norma is expected to bring life-threatening hurricane conditions
and a dangerous storm surge to portions of the far southern Baja
California peninsula within the hurricane warning area today and
tonight. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

2. Heavy rains from Norma will begin to impact the far southern
portions of Baja California Sur today, continuing through Sunday,
with heavy rains reaching Sinaloa also today, continuing
through Monday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

3. Norma is forecast to approach the west coast of Mexico as a
tropical storm on Sunday night and Monday, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for a portion of that area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 21.7N 110.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 22.7N 110.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 23.5N 109.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 22/1800Z 23.9N 109.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 23/0600Z 24.2N 108.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 24.7N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 210834
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
300 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURING OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS, FLASH FLOODING, AND A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 110.1W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM WSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Topolobampo to Mazatlan.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Los Barriles to San Evaristo
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe
* Topolobampo to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 110.1 West. Norma is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northeastward to
east-northeastward turn with a reduction in forward speed is
expected tonight through Monday. On the forecast track, The center
of Norma is expected to move over the southern portion of Baja
California Sur within the hurricane warning area later today. Norma
is forecast to move toward the west coast of Mexico on Sunday night
and move inland within the tropical storm watch area on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Norma is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued gradual weakening
is expected during the next few days, but Norma is expected
to remain a hurricane while it moves over the southern portion of
Baja California Sur.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km). An observation station in Cabo San Lucas, Baja
California Sur, recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72
km/h) and a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Baja California Sur today. Tropical storm
conditions are occuring in the warning areas in Baja California Sur.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in Las Islas Marias today and
are expected in the warning area along the west coast of Mexico
Sunday.

RAINFALL: Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with local maxima of 15 inches across the far southern
portion of Baja California Sur through Sunday and across portions
of Sinaloa through Monday. These rains will likely produce flash
and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of
higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning
area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur.
These swells will spread northward along the coast of western Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 210834
TCMEP2

HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
0900 UTC SAT OCT 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 110.1W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 110.1W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 110.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.7N 110.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.5N 109.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.9N 109.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.2N 108.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.7N 107.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 110.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 21/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 210545
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
1200 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023

...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS, FLASH FLOODING, AND A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 110.1W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM WSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Los Barriles to San Evaristo
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Topolobampo to Mazatlan

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. Additional
watches or warnings could be required later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 110.1 West. Norma is moving
toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected today, followed by a slower northeastward
to east-northeastward motion tonight through Monday. On the
forecast track, The center of Norma is expected to move over the
southern portion of Baja California Sur within the hurricane warning
area later today. Norma is forecast to move toward the west coast
of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night and move inland within the
tropical storm watch area on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Norma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some gradual weakening is expected during the
next few days, but Norma is expected remain a hurricane while it
moves over the southern portion of Baja California Sur.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Baja California Sur today, with tropical storm
conditions commencing this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Baja California Sur
later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Las
Islas Marias today and in the watch area along the west coast of
Mexico by Sunday.

RAINFALL: Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with local maxima of 15 inches across the far southern
portion of Baja California Sur through Sunday and across portions
of Sinaloa through Monday. These rains will likely produce flash
and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of
higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning
area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur.
These swells will spread northward along the coast of western Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 210246
TCDEP2

Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023

Norma's satellite depiction has not changed much over the past few
hours, with a tight inner core on infrared imagery. A recent SSMI/S
microwave pass at 2306 UTC confirmed the tight core is well intact.
The last few visible satellite images showed the eye feature
becoming less cloud filled, and better defined. Earlier Air Force
Hurricane Hunters flight-level and SFMR winds supported an intensity
of 105 kt. Subject and objective Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates for this cycle range from 90 to 105 kt. Given the
satellite imagery and the earlier hurricane hunter data, will remain
near the high end of the intensity estimates, with an initial
intensity remaining at 105 kt for this advisory. The outer rain
bands of Norma are spreading over the southern portions of the Baja
California Sur peninsula.

The hurricane is move north-northwestward with an initial motion of
340/8 kt. Norma is expected to turn from a north-northwest motion
to northward over the next day or so, while it moves between a mid-
to upper-level trough to its northwest and a mid-level ridge to its
east. This will bring the center of Norma over the southern tip of
Baja California Sur within the hurricane warning on Saturday. The
track models are in fairly good agreement with little change to the
previous NHC track in the short term. After moving over the Baja
Peninsula and emerging into the Gulf of California, models are in
agreement with a northeast to east-northeastward turn towards the
coast of Sinaloa. There remains some along-track speed differences
between the various model aids. The NHC forecast is similar to the
previous, with a slight nudge to the right towards the HCCA
corrected consensus.

Norma has been able to maintain an inner core and fend off the
increasing southerly wind shear and drier air today. The drier air
has attempted to penetrate the inner core, but so far has not been
able to do so. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous, which still shows some weakening, but Norma is expected to
be a dangerous hurricane as it moves over the Baja California Sur
peninsula. Land interaction with the Baja California peninsula,
along with increasingly dry air and southerly shear, should result
in steady weakening through early next week while Norma approaches
the west coast of mainland Mexico. After the system moves inland
along the coast of Sinaloa on Monday, the system should rapidly
weaken and dissipate over the higher terrain.


Key Messages:

1. Norma is expected to bring life-threatening hurricane conditions
and a dangerous storm surge to portions of the far southern Baja
California peninsula within the hurricane warning area on Saturday.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

2. Heavy rains from Norma will begin to impact the far southern
portions of Baja California Sur tonight, continuing through
Sunday, with heavy rains reaching Sinaloa on Saturday. This
rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible
mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

3. Norma is forecast to approach the west coast of Mexico as a
tropical storm on Sunday and Sunday night, and a Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect for a portion of that area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 20.8N 109.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 21.9N 110.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 23.0N 109.9W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
36H 22/1200Z 23.6N 109.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 23/0000Z 23.9N 108.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 24.3N 107.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 24.8N 106.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 210245
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS, FLOODING RAINFALL, AND A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 109.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the west coast of mainland Mexico from Bahia Tempehuaya to Mazatlan.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Los Barriles to San Evaristo
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Topolobampo to Mazatlan

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. Additional
watches or warnings could be required later today and tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 109.9 West. Norma is moving
toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected on Saturday, followed by a slower northeastward
motion Saturday night through Monday. On the forecast track, Norma
is expected to move over the southern portion of Baja California Sur
within the hurricane warning area on Saturday. Norma is forecast to
move toward the west coast of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night and
move inland within the tropical storm watch area on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Norma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some gradual weakening is expected during the
next day or so, but Norma is expected to be a hurricane when it
moves near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur.
Weakening is forecast to continue through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Baja California Sur on Saturday, with tropical storm
conditions imminent. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning areas in Baja California Sur on early
Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Las Islas Marias
through tonight, and in the watch area along the west coast of
Mexico by Sunday.

RAINFALL: Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with local maxima of 15 inches across the far southern
portion of Baja California Sur through Sunday and across portions
of Sinaloa through Monday. These rains will likely produce flash
and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of
higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning
area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur.
These swells will spread northward along the coast of western Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula this weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 210245
TCMEP2

HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
0300 UTC SAT OCT 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 109.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.9N 110.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 109.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.6N 109.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.9N 108.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.3N 107.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.8N 106.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 109.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 21/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 202346
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
600 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023

...OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVING INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS, FLOODING RAINFALL, AND A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 109.8W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Los Barriles to San Evaristo
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Topolobampo to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. Additional
watches or warnings could be required later today and tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 109.8 West. Norma is moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected on Saturday, followed by a slower northeastward
motion Saturday night through Monday. On the forecast track, Norma
is expected to move over the southern portion of Baja California Sur
within the hurricane warning area on Saturday. Norma is forecast to
move toward the west coast of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night and
move inland within the tropical storm watch area on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Norma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some gradual weakening is expected during the
next day or so, but Norma is expected to be a hurricane when it
moves near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur.
Weakening is forecast to continue through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Baja California Sur on Saturday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning late tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Baja California Sur
on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Las Islas
Marias through tonight, and in the watch area along the west coast
of Mexico by Sunday.

RAINFALL: Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with local maxima of 15 inches across the far southern
portion of Baja California Sur through Sunday and across portions of
Sinaloa through Monday. These rains will likely produce flash and
urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning
area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur.
These swells will spread northward along the coast of western Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula this weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 202052
TCDEP2

Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
300 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023

After a brief period of weakening earlier today, data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters this afternoon indicate that Norma has
strengthened back to a major hurricane. The aircraft data showed
maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 124 kt, with peak SFMR winds of
104 kt in the northeast quadrant. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is raised to 105 kt. The eyewall is open to the southeast
based on aircraft reports. The eye signature has become better
defined over the past few hours in radar data from Los Cabos,
Mexico, as new bursts of intense inner core convection have
developed. The radar data show that the outer rainbands of Norma are
beginning to spread over southern portions of Baja California Sur.

In the short term, the renewed inner core of Norma could allow the
hurricane to resist some of the negative influences of southerly
shear and drier air in the surrounding environment. The updated NHC
forecast still shows some weakening but is higher than the previous
one during the first 24-36 h of the forecast, based largely on the
higher initial intensity. Land interaction with the Baja California
peninsula, along with the previously described negative factors,
should induce a more steady weakening trend through early next week
while Norma approaches mainland Mexico.

Scatterometer data and aircraft fixes show that Norma has moved
slightly left-of-track today, and its initial motion is 330/7 kt.
The hurricane is expected to turn toward the north-northwest and
north during the next day or so while it moves between a mid- to
upper-level trough to its northwest and a mid-level ridge to its
east. This will bring the center of Norma over the southern tip of
Baja California Sur within the hurricane warning on Saturday. The
track models have again trended westward this cycle, and the updated
NHC forecast is nudged in that direction during the next 24-36 h.
Then, the models generally agree that Norma will turn northeastward
and approach the coast of Sinaloa in western Mexico, although there
are still notable speed differences between the various track
models. This portion of the NHC forecast is similar to the previous
one, although a bit slower based on the latest consensus aids. Norma
is forecast to move inland along the coast of Sinaloa on Monday and
quickly dissipate thereafter over the terrain of western Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Norma is expected to bring hurricane conditions and a dangerous
storm surge to portions of the far southern Baja California
peninsula within the hurricane warning area on Saturday.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

2. Heavy rains from Norma will begin to impact the far southern
portions of Baja California Sur today and continue through Sunday,
with heavy rains reaching Sinaloa on Saturday. This rainfall will
produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in
areas of higher terrain.

3. Norma is forecast to approach the west coast of Mexico as a
tropical storm on Sunday and Sunday night, and a Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect for a portion of that area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 20.1N 109.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 21.2N 110.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 22.6N 110.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 23.4N 109.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 23.9N 109.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 24.2N 108.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 24.6N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 202051
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
300 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND NORMA IS A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS, FLOODING RAINFALL, AND A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 109.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Los Barriles to San Evaristo
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Topolobampo to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. Additional
watches or warnings could be required later today and tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 109.8 West. Norma is moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected on Saturday, followed by a slower northeastward
motion Saturday night through Monday. On the forecast track, Norma
is expected to move over the southern portion of Baja California Sur
within the hurricane warning area on Saturday. Norma is forecast to
move toward the west coast of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night and
move inland within the tropical storm watch area on Monday.

Data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195
km/h) with higher gusts. Norma is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some gradual weakening is
expected during the next day or so, but Norma is expected to be a
hurricane when it moves near or over the southern portion of Baja
California Sur. Weakening is forecast to continue through early
next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km). An automated weather station on Socorro Island recently
reported a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data
from the aircraft is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Baja California Sur on Saturday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning late tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Baja California Sur
on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Las Islas
Marias through tonight, and in the watch area along the west coast
of Mexico by Sunday.

RAINFALL: Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with local maxima of 15 inches across the far southern
portion of Baja California Sur through Sunday and across portions of
Sinaloa through Monday. These rains will likely produce flash and
urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas
of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur.
These swells will spread northward along the coast of western Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula this weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 202050
TCMEP2

HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
2100 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 109.8W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 109.8W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 109.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.2N 110.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.6N 110.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.4N 109.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.9N 109.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.2N 108.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.6N 107.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 109.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 21/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTPZ62 KNHC 201941
TCUEP2

Hurricane Norma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
140 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023

...NORMA STRENGTHENS BACK INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that
Hurricane Norma has strengthened back into a major hurricane this
afternoon. The maximum winds are estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. The initial and forecast intensities will be
updated with the next advisory that will be issued at 300 PM MDT
(2100 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 140 PM MDT...1940 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 109.7W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM W MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 201754
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
1200 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING NORMA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 109.5W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Los Barriles to San Evaristo
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Topolobampo to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. Additional
watches or warnings could be required later today and tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 109.5 West. Norma is moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast through
Saturday, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Sunday. On the
forecast track, Norma is expected to approach the southern portion
of Baja California Sur tonight and move near or over the area on
Saturday. Norma is forecast to move toward the west coast of
mainland Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night.

Data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, but
Norma is forecast to be a hurricane when it moves near or over the
southern portion of Baja California Sur.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). An automated weather station on Socorro Island
recently reported a sustained wind of 31 mph (50 km/h) and a gust
to 47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is
963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Baja California Sur on Saturday, with tropical
storm conditions beginning late tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Baja California
Sur on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Las
Islas Marias today and tonight, and in the watch area along the
west coast of Mexico by Sunday.

RAINFALL: Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with local maxima of 15 inches across the far southern
portion of Baja California Sur through Sunday and across portions of
Sinaloa through Monday. These rains will likely produce flash and
urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas
of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur.
These swells will spread northward along the coast of western Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula this weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 201500
TCDEP2

Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 AM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023

The center of Norma is embedded underneath a cold central dense
overcast this morning. The GOES-West derived motion winds and
satellite images show healthy upper-level outflow to the north, but
moderate shear continues to impinge on the south side of the
hurricane. Recent SSMIS passive microwave images show a ragged
mid-level eyewall structure, with a thinner ring of convection noted
on the south and west sides of the inner core. The objective and
subjective satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, TAFB, and
SAB have decreased this morning, and the initial intensity is
lowered to 95 kt based on a blend of these data. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Norma
later today.

Norma is moving north-northwestward (335 degrees) at 7 kt. A gradual
turn toward the north is expected through Saturday while Norma moves
within the flow between a mid-level ridge to its east and a mid- to
upper-level trough to its northwest. This will bring the center of
Norma near or over the southern tip of Baja California Sur between
24-36 h. From there, a turn toward the northeast with a slower
forward speed is forecast as Norma approaches the west-central coast
of Mexico. The overall track guidance envelope has shifted slightly
westward this cycle. The updated NHC forecast from 24-72 h has been
nudged in that direction, generally between the simple (TVCE) and
corrected (HCCA) consensus aids. This track shows Norma reaching the
west coast of Mexico on Sunday night and dissipating early next
week. There are still pronounced speed differences between the
global and regional models regarding when Norma reaches the coast of
mainland Mexico, so further adjustments could be required.

Although Norma remains over very warm SSTs, it is moving into a more
hostile environment. Drier mid-level air and increasing
southwesterly shear will likely cause continued weakening during the
next few days. Still, Norma is expected to be a hurricane when it
moves near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur on
Saturday within the Hurricane Warning area. The continued shear and
potential land interaction with the Baja peninsula will likely cause
Norma to weaken to a tropical storm on Sunday while it approaches
the west coast of Mexico. Based on the threat of tropical storm
conditions there, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for a portion of the west coast.


Key Messages:

1. Norma is expected to bring hurricane conditions to the far
southern portion of the Baja California peninsula within the
hurricane warning area on Saturday.

2. Heavy rains from Norma will begin to impact the far southern
portions of Baja California Sur later today and continue through
Sunday, with heavy rains reaching Sinaloa on Saturday. This rainfall
may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides
in areas of higher terrain.

3. Norma is forecast to approach the west coast of Mexico as a
tropical storm on Sunday and Sunday night, and a Tropical Storm
Watch has been issued for a portion of that area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 19.4N 109.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 23.3N 109.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 23.9N 109.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 24.3N 108.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 24.7N 107.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/1200Z 26.0N 106.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 201457
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 AM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 109.2W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
from La Paz northward to San Evaristo along the east coast of the
Baja California peninsula. The government of Mexico has also issued
a Tropical Storm Watch for the west coast of mainland Mexico from
Topolobampo to Bahia Tempehuaya.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Los Barriles to San Evaristo
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Topolobampo to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. Additional
watches or warnings could be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 109.2 West. Norma is moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast through
Saturday, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Sunday. On the
forecast track, Norma is expected to approach the southern portion
of Baja California Sur tonight and move near or over the area on
Saturday. Norma is forecast to move toward the west coast of
mainland Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next
few days, but Norma is forecast to be a hurricane when it moves
near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Baja California Sur on Saturday, with tropical
storm conditions beginning late tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Baja California
Sur on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Las
Islas Marias today and tonight, and in the watch area along the
west coast of Mexico by Sunday.

RAINFALL: Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with local maxima of 15 inches across the far southern
portion of Baja California Sur through Sunday and across portions of
Sinaloa through Monday. These rains will likely produce flash and
urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas
of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur.
These swells will spread northward along the coast of western Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula this weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 201455
TCMEP2

HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
1500 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 109.2W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 109.2W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 109.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.3N 109.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.9N 109.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.3N 108.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.7N 107.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 40SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 106.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 109.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 20/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 201154
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
600 AM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 108.9W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Los Barriles to La Paz
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. Additional
watches or warnings could be required today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 108.9 West. Norma is moving
toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower
north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast through
Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast or northeast
on Sunday. On the forecast track, Norma is forecast to approach the
southern portion of Baja California Sur tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Norma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next
few days, but Norma is forecast to be a hurricane when it moves near
the southern portion of Baja California Sur.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Baja California Sur by early Saturday, with tropical
storm conditions beginning late tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Baja California
Sur on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Las
Islas Marias later today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with local maxima of 15 inches through Sunday across the far
southern portion of California Baja Sur. These rains will likely
produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in
areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas
of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur, and will spread
northward along the coast of western Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 200855
TCDEP2

Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
300 AM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023

Earlier low-frequency microwave images indicated that significant
degradation of Norma's eye has occurred during the past few hours,
particularly in the south part of the inner core. Although
the outflow aloft is still quite impressive, there is evidence in
the UW-CIMSS shear analysis of modest southerly shear below 250 mb
which is apparently affecting Norma's vertical structure.
Subsequently, the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt for this
advisory and is based on a blend of the subjective and objective
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS.

Gradual weakening should continue through the period as a result of
increasing south-southwesterly vertical wind shear produced by
an amplifying mid- to upper-level trough approaching the Baja
California peninsula, and a progressively inhibiting thermodynamic
surrounding environment with mid-tropospheric relative humidity
values of less than 50 percent. Despite the forecast weakening
trend, Norma will likely be a hurricane while it approaches the
southern portion of Baja California Sur on Saturday.

The initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 330/6
kt. Norma is expected to move between mid-level subtropical
high-pressure east of the cyclone and the above mentioned trough to
the northwest and north during the next couple of days. By
mid-period, Norma should turn north-northeastward to northeastward
with a reduction in forward speed while approaching the
west-central coast of Mexico. The official track forecast lies
between the TVCE simple deterministic model consensus and the HFIP
HCCA, and is similar to the previous forecast with a slight
adjustment to the south of it beyond the 48-hour period.

The initial wind radii have been adjusted slightly based on a
recent METOP-B scatterometer overpass.


Key Messages:

1. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the far southern portion of
the Baja California peninsula, where Norma is expected to bring
hurricane conditions on Saturday when it passes near or over the
area. Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the
tropical storm warning areas in Baja California Sur on Saturday.

2. Heavy rains from Norma will begin to impact the far southern
portions of California Baja Sur later today, continuing through
Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along
with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 18.8N 108.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 19.7N 109.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 21.2N 109.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 22.4N 109.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 23.3N 109.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 23.6N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 23.9N 107.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 25.3N 106.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 200854
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
300 AM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 108.6W
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued Tropical Storm Warnings north of
Los Barriles to La Paz, and north of Todos Santos To Santa Fe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Los Barriles to La Paz
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. Additional
watches or warnings could be required today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 108.6 West. Norma is moving
toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower northward
to northeastward motion is forecast through Saturday followed by a
turn toward the north-northeast to northeast on Sunday. On the
forecast track, Norma is forecast to approach the southern portion
of Baja California Sur tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Norma is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected
during the next few days, but Norma is forecast to be a hurricane
when it moves near the southern portion of Baja California Sur.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Baja California Sur by early Saturday, with tropical
storm conditions beginning late tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Baja California
Sur on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Las
Islas Marias today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with local maxima of 15 inches through Sunday across the far
southern portion of California Baja Sur. These rains will likely
produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in
areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas
of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur, and will spread
northward along the coast of western Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 200854
TCMEP2

HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
0900 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 108.6W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 240SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 108.6W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 108.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.7N 109.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.2N 109.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.4N 109.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.3N 109.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.6N 108.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.9N 107.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 25.3N 106.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 108.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 20/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 200554
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
1200 AM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023

...NORMA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 108.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Los Barriles to La Paz
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. Additional
watches or warnings could be required today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 108.3 West. Norma is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the
north-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected later today
or tonight. A slower northward to northeastward motion is forecast
this weekend. On the forecast track, Norma is forecast to approach
the southern portion of Baja California Sur tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Norma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is expected during the next
few days, but Norma is forecast to be a hurricane when it moves near
the southern portion of Baja California Sur.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in
Baja California Sur by early Saturday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning late tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in Las Islas Marias today and tonight, and in the
watch areas in Baja California Sur on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with local maxima of 15 inches through Sunday across the far
southern portion of Baja California Sur. These rains will likely
produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in
areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas
of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur, and will spread
northward along the coast of western Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 200241
TCDEP2

Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023

The eye of Norma is no longer evident on conventional geostationary
satellite imagery, but could still be seen on a recent SSMI/S
microwave pass. Deep convection remains very strong near the
estimated center with some cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. A few
convective banding features are evident over the northern portion
of the circulation, and upper-level outflow is still strong over
most sectors of the system. The current intensity is set at 105 kt
for this advisory, which is a blend of various subjective and
objective satellite estimates. This is in best agreement with a
recent AI-based objective Dvorak estimate from UW-CIMSS.

For the next couple of days, Norma's environment will be
characterized by increasing south-southwesterly vertical wind
shear, associated with a broad upper-level trough near the Baja
California peninsula, along with a drier mid-level air mass. These
factors should cause gradual weakening while the system nears
southern Baja California Sur, but it is likely that Norma will still
be a hurricane when it moves near or over that area. The official
intensity forecast is on the higher side of the model guidance
during the early part of the forecast period, but close to the
corrected model consensus, HCCA at 48 hours and beyond.

Although the center fixes are a little more uncertain than earlier
today, the initial motion does not appear to have changed much and
is around 350/6 kt. Over the next few days, Norma is expected to
move between a mid-level high to its east and a trough to the
northwest and north. The track guidance models, especially the
more reliable ones, have come into a little better agreement, and
the NHC forecast track is close to the simple dynamical model
consensus. This is also close to the previous official forecast.


Key Messages:

1. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the far southern portion of
the Baja California peninsula, where Norma is expected to bring
hurricane conditions on Saturday when it passes near or over the
area.

2. Heavy rains from Norma will begin to impact the far southern
portions of California Baja Sur on late Friday, continuing through
Sunday This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along
with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 18.2N 108.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 19.2N 108.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 23.2N 109.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 23.8N 109.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 24.4N 108.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 25.3N 106.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 200240
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023

...NORMA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 108.1W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Los Barriles to La Paz
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. Additional
watches or warnings could be required tonight or on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 108.1 West. Norma is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the
north-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected during the
next couple of days. A slower northward to northeastward motion is
forecast later this weekend. On the forecast track, Norma is
forecast to approach the southern portion of Baja California on
Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Norma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is expected during the next
few days, but Norma is forecast to be a hurricane when it moves
near the southern portion of Baja California.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in
Baja California Sur by early Saturday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning late Friday night. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in Las Islas Marias Friday and Friday night, and in the
watch areas in Baja California Sur on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with local maxima of 15 inches through Sunday across the far
southern portion of Baja California Sur. These rains will likely
produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in
areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas
of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur, and will spread
northward along the coast of western Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 200239
TCMEP2

HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
0300 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 108.1W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 108.1W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.2N 108.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.2N 109.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.8N 109.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.4N 108.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 25.3N 106.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 108.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 20/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 192356
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
600 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 108.0W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Los Barriles to La Paz
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. Additional
watches or warnings could be required tonight or on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 108.0 West. Norma is moving
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the north-northwest
at a similar forward speed is expected during the next couple of
days. A slower northward to northeastward motion is forecast later
this weekend. On the forecast track, Norma is forecast to approach
the southern portion of Baja California on Friday night and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Norma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is expected during the next
few days, but Norma is forecast to be a hurricane when it moves
near the southern portion of Baja California.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in
Baja California Sur by early Saturday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning late Friday night. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in Las Islas Marias Friday and Friday night, and in the
watch areas in Baja California Sur on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with local maxima of 15 inches through Sunday across the far
southern portion of California Baja Sur. These rains will likely
produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in
areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas
of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur, and will spread
northward along the coast of western Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 192053
TCDEP2

Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
300 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023

The satellite presentation of Norma has deteriorated since the last
advisory. The eye has become less defined, and the inner core
convection has become more asymmetric. The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunters that investigated Norma reported that the eyewall
was open to the southeast during their final pass through the
center. Still, the aircraft data confirm that Norma is a major
hurricane. The Hurricane Hunters reported peak 700-mb flight-level
winds of 111 kt, with SFMR retrievals as high as 102 kt. The minimum
pressure from a recent center dropsonde was 945 mb with 12-kt winds.
The initial intensity is lowered to 110 kt for this advisory, which
could be a bit generous based on the recent aircraft data.

Based on recent satellite trends, it is likely that Norma has
reached its peak intensity. An increase in southerly shear will
likely cause Norma to become more vertically tilted during the next
couple of days, while the hurricane moves into a drier and more
stable environment as diagnosed from the SHIPS guidance. Therefore,
weakening is forecast beginning tonight and continuing through the
weekend and into early next week. Still, Norma is forecast to be a
hurricane when it moves near or over the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula, and the government of Mexico has issued a
Hurricane Warning for this area based on the increased risk of
hurricane conditions.

The eye of Norma has wobbled some today, but the long-term motion
remains northward (350/5 kt). A turn toward the north-northwest is
expected during the next couple of days while Norma approaches the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. There are still speed
differences in the various global and regional models, likely
related to differences in the steering flow based on the vertical
depth of the cyclone. The GFS and regional models suggest Norma will
remain a deeper cyclone and move toward the west coast of mainland
Mexico in 48-72 h. The 12z ECMWF, Canadian, and UKMET runs show
Norma making it farther north than previous runs, but still stalling
near the southern tip of Baja before moving inland over western
Mexico early next week. The updated NHC track forecast has been
nudged westward and is faster this cycle, which generally keeps it
between the HCCA and TVCE aids. This update shows Norma inland by 96
h and dissipated over western Mexico by day 5, but this could occur
sooner than forecast if the GFS and regional hurricane models are
correct. Interests in western Mexico should monitor the latest
forecast updates, as future track and/or speed adjustments could be
required.


Key Messages:

1. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the far southern portion of
the Baja California peninsula, where Norma is expected to bring
hurricane conditions on Saturday when it passes near or over the
area.

2. Heavy rains from Norma will begin to impact the far southern
portions of California Baja Sur on late Friday, continuing through
Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along
with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 17.5N 108.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 18.5N 108.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 19.8N 109.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 21.2N 109.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 22.5N 109.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 23.6N 109.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 24.2N 108.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 25.0N 107.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 192052
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
300 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 108.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 395 MI...630 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Hurricane Watch for the
southern portion of Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los
Barriles to a Hurricane Warning. The government of Mexico has also
issued a Tropical Storm Watch from north of Los Barriles to La Paz,
and north of Todos Santos to Santa Fe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Los Barriles to La Paz
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. Additional
watches or warnings could be required tonight or on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 108.0 West. Norma is moving
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the north-northwest
at a similar forward speed is expected during the next couple of
days. A slower northward to northeastward motion is forecast later
this weekend. On the forecast track, Norma is forecast to approach
the southern portion of Baja California on Friday night and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Norma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is expected during the next
few days, but Norma is forecast to be a hurricane when it moves
near the southern portion of Baja California.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data is 944 mb (27.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in
Baja California Sur by early Saturday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning late Friday night. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in Las Islas Marias Friday and Friday night, and in the
watch areas in Baja California Sur on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with local maxima of 15 inches through Sunday across the far
southern portion of California Baja Sur. These rains will likely
produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in
areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur, and will spread
northward along the coast of western Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 192052
TCMEP2

HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
2100 UTC THU OCT 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 108.0W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 108.0W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 108.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.8N 109.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.2N 109.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.5N 109.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.6N 109.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.2N 108.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 25.0N 107.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 108.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 20/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 191756
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
1200 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING NORMA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 108.0W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Las
Islas Marias.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. Additional
watches or warnings could be required later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 108.0 West. Norma is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward to
north-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected
for the next couple of days. A slower northward to northeastward
motion is forecast over the weekend. On the forecast track, Norma is
forecast to approach the southern portion of Baja California on
Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Norma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Small intensity fluctuations are possible
today, followed by gradual weakening beginning Friday and continuing
into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data is 941 mb (27.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area in Baja California Sur by early Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in Las Islas Marias Friday and Friday
night.

RAINFALL: Norma is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with local maxima of 15 inches through Sunday across the far
southern portion of the Mexican state of Baja California Sur. These
rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur, and will spread
northward along the coast of western Mexico during the next couple
of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 191452
TCDEP2

Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023

Norma has continued to show signs of strengthening this morning. The
15 to 20 n-mi-wide eye of the hurricane is surrounded by a thick
ring of convective cloud tops colder than -70 to -75C. The initial
intensity is raised to 115 kt based on consensus T6.0/115 kt
subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Norma later today.

The eye of Norma has deviated right of track during the past 6-12 h,
and the longer-term motion is nearly due north (360/6 kt). The
track forecast remains challenging. Even in the near term, there is
significant spread among the various models, likely related to
differences in the steering flow based on the vertical depth of the
cyclone. Given recent trends, the NHC forecast has been adjusted to
the right of the previous one through 60 h, bringing it just east of
the multi-model consensus aids and favoring the stronger GFS and
regional hurricane models. Thereafter, it remains unclear whether
Norma will turn northeastward and approach the west coast of
mainland Mexico, or stall and meander to the south of the Baja
California peninsula. The official forecast continues to show Norma
moving toward mainland Mexico beyond 60 h, albeit slower than some
of the stronger model guidance (GFS, HAFS) with a deeper vortex.
Once again, confidence is low and future track and/or speed
adjustments could be required.

Recent satellite images and model shear analyses suggest that
southerly shear is increasing over Norma and will continue to do
so over the next couple of days. Therefore, the hurricane is likely
near its peak intensity, although some small fluctuations cannot be
ruled out today. By Friday, weakening is expected as Norma likely
becomes more tilted by the shear and moves into a drier and more
stable environment. Still, Norma could be at or near hurricane
strength when it makes its closest approach to the southern tip of
Baja California, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. Beyond 72 h,
the intensity forecast is more uncertain and highly dependent on
Norma's track, structure, and the extent (if any) of land
interaction with the Baja peninsula. If Norma moves faster than
forecast, it could reach the west coast of mainland Mexico as a
stronger storm. Given the track uncertainty described above,
interests there are encouraged to closely monitor forecast updates.


Key Messages:

1. Norma is expected to be at or near hurricane strength as it
approaches the southern tip of Baja California, and a hurricane
watch has been issued for that area.

2. Heavy rains from Norma will begin to impact the far southern
portions of California Baja Sur on late Friday, continuing through
Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along
with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 17.4N 107.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 18.1N 107.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 19.3N 108.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 20.5N 108.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 21.9N 109.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 23.0N 109.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 23.6N 109.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 24.2N 108.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 24.8N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 191451
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS TO INVESTIGATE MAJOR HURRICANE
NORMA LATER TODAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 107.6W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. Additional
watches or warnings could be required later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 107.6 West. Norma is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward to
north-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected
for the next couple of days. A slower northward to northeastward
motion is forecast over the weekend. On the forecast track, Norma is
forecast to approach the southern portion of Baja California on
Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Norma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Small intensity fluctuations are possible
today, followed by gradual weakening beginning Friday and continuing
into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area by early Saturday.

RAINFALL: Norma is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with local maxima of 15 inches through Sunday across the far
southern portion of the Mexican state of Baja California Sur. These
rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of
western Mexico and toward Baja California Sur during the next couple
of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 191451
TCMEP2

HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
1500 UTC THU OCT 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 107.6W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 107.6W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.1N 107.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.3N 108.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 108.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.9N 109.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 109.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.6N 109.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 24.2N 108.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 24.8N 107.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 107.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 19/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 191156
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
600 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023

...MAJOR HURRICANE NORMA MOVING NORTHWARD...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 107.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 107.5 West. Norma is moving
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northward to
north-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected
for the next couple of days. A slower motion is forecast by the
weekend. On the forecast track, Norma is forecast to approach the
southern portion of Baja California on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Norma is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
possible today, followed by gradual weakening beginning Friday and
continuing into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.05 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area as
early as Saturday morning.

RAINFALL: Norma is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with local maxima of 15 inches through Sunday across the far
southern portion of the Mexican state of Baja California Sur.
These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along
with possible mudslides in areas of high terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of
western Mexico and toward Baja California Sur during the next couple
of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 190856
TCDEP2

Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
300 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023

Norma has rapidly intensified into a major hurricane. Overnight, a
20 n mi wide eye emerged on infrared satellite imagery, with cold
cloud tops wrapping around the eyewall and some evidence of warming
within the eye. Subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
were both T5.5/102 kt, and the initial intensity was raised to 105
kt, slightly above the estimates given the improved structural
organization.

The hurricane is likely nearing its peak intensity and environmental
conditions are expected to become increasingly hostile soon. Global
model guidance is already analyzing moderate southerly deep-layer
wind shear over Norma. However, there is still some potential for
strengthening in the next 12 h. Beyond that time frame, strong
shear and dry mid-level humidities will likely induce a gradual
weakening trend through the end of the forecast period. The latest
NHC peak intensity forecast has been raised to 115 kt in 12 h and is
on the upper bound of the intensity guidance envelope.

Norma is moving northward slower than expected, at an estimated 5
kt. There is still a considerable spread in the model guidance
envelope and therefore a high level of uncertainty in the track
forecast. The ECMWF continues to favor a slower forward speed that
essentially stalls Norma off the southern coast of the Baja
California peninsula this weekend and early next week. This is
contrasted by the GFS which shows Norma accelerating and turning
northeastward prior to the peninsula in stronger steering flow. The
official forecast is a blend of these solutions and shows the center
of Norma reaching the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
in 72 h. A slow northeastward motion is possible by days 4 and 5.
Based on the possibility of hurricane-force winds within 48 hours,
the government of Mexico has issued a hurricane watch for the
extreme southern portion of the Baja California peninsula.


Key Messages:

1. Norma is expected to be near hurricane strength as it approaches
the southern tip of Baja California and a hurricane watch has been
issued for that area.

2. Heavy rainfall from Norma will begin to impact the far southern
portions of Baja California Sur late Friday, continuing through
Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along
with possible mudslides in areas of high terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 16.7N 107.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 17.5N 108.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 18.6N 108.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 19.8N 109.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 21.2N 109.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 22.3N 109.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 23.0N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 23.4N 109.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 24.0N 108.4W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 190856
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
300 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023

...NORMA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 107.7W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Baja
California peninsula from Todos Santos to Los Barriles.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 108.0 West. Norma is moving
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northward to
north-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is anticipated
for the next couple of days. A slower motion is forecast by the
weekend. On the forecast track, Norma is forecast to approach the
southern portion of Baja California on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Norma is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
possible today followed by gradual weakening beginning Friday and
continuing into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area as
early as Saturday morning.

RAINFALL: Norma is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with local maxima of 15 inches through Sunday across the far
southern portion of the Mexican state of Baja California Sur.
These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along
with possible mudslides in areas of high terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of
western Mexico and toward Baja California Sur during the next couple
of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 190855
TCMEP2

HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
0900 UTC THU OCT 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 107.7W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 107.7W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.5N 108.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.6N 108.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.8N 109.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.2N 109.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.3N 109.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.0N 109.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 23.4N 109.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 24.0N 108.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 107.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 19/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 190252
TCDEP2

Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023

Norma's rapid intensification continues. Microwave imagery from late
this afternoon indicated that a very well-defined low- to mid-level
eye has formed with a surrounding ring of shallow to moderate
convection associated with rapid intensification. While that eye is
not yet visible in conventional satellite imagery, subjective
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 77 kt and 90
kt, respectively, while recent objective evaluations from UW-CIMSS
range from about 75 kt to 85 kt. Based on the whole of the data,
the intensity for Norma has been raised to 80 kt.

For the next 24 to 36 hours, the forecast for Norma appears to be
relatively straightforward. Continued rapid strengthening appears
likely tonight based on Norma's convective structure and the
conducive surrounding environment. The hurricane should continue
moving generally northward during that time, steered by a weak
mid-level ridge to the east of Norma and an upper-level trough to
its northwest. Short-term fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall
replacement cycles will become possible starting tonight, but
confidence in the forecast is reasonably high through 36 h.

After that time, the uncertainty grows considerably. Southwesterly
upper-level flow associated with the aforementioned upper-level
trough will continue, but the mid- to lower-level steering will
likely become light or even switch to northerly. The resulting
increase in shear should cause Norma to weaken, but the rate of that
weakening remains in doubt. As long as the hurricane retains its
vertical depth, upper-level flow should keep it moving northward.
However, once Norma weakens to the point that its steering is
dominated by low- to mid-level flow, its forward speed should slow
down considerably. It is possible, therefore, that Norma will stall
just south of Baja California peninsula, a solution favored by the
deterministic ECMWF and a number of its ensemble members. However,
the hurricane models (HAFS-A/B, HMON, and HWRF), which should
resolve the structure of Norma better than a global model, all
indicate that the hurricane will retain its depth long enough to
reach the Baja California peninsula. The NHC track and intensity
forecasts favor the regional models, blending their latest consensus
with the previous forecast to try to maintain continuity. The
updated official track forecast is slightly faster than the previous
one, but is generally similar despite the high uncertainty.

Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be required for portions
of the Baja California peninsula later tonight, and interests there
should continue to monitor updates on Norma, especially since
larger-than-normal changes to the forecast are possible due to the
high uncertainty in this case.

Key Messages:

1. Norma is forecast to continue rapidly strengthening tonight
while it passes well offshore of southwestern Mexico.

2. There is a greater than normal uncertainty in the track and
intensity forecasts for Norma later this week and this weekend when
it is expected to approach the Baja California peninsula and
western Mexico. Regardless of Norma's exact track or intensity,
there is an increasing threat of wind and rainfall impacts to
southern portions of Baja California Sur by Saturday, and watches
could be required there later tonight or on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 16.4N 108.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 17.2N 108.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 18.3N 108.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 19.3N 108.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 23.0N 109.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 23.5N 109.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 24.0N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 190251
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023

...NORMA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 108.0W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of
Norma. Watches could be required for portions of the area tonight
or on Thursday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 108.0 West. Norma is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward to
north-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is anticipated
for the next couple of days. A slower motion is forecast is expected
by the weekend. On the forecast track, Norma could approach the
southern portion of Baja California on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected tonight.
Slight weakening is forecast to begin late this week or over the
weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of
western Mexico and toward Baja California Sur during the next couple
of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 190251
TCMEP2

HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
0300 UTC THU OCT 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.0W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.0W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.2N 108.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.3N 108.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.3N 108.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 109.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 23.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 24.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 108.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 182049
TCDEP2

Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
300 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023

Norma continues to rapidly intensify this afternoon. Intense
inner-core convection has resulted in a ring of very cold cloud tops
surrounding the center of the cyclone, and a ragged eye has emerged
in recent visible images of Norma. The latest subjective Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB were T4.5/77 kt and T4.0/65 kt,
respectively, and the UW-CIMSS objective ADT and AiDT estimates are
around 70 kt. The initial intensity is raised to 70 kt based on a
blend of these data, which makes Norma a hurricane.

Norma has rapidly strengthened by 30 kt during the past 24 h. The
warm waters, weak to moderate vertical shear, and moist and unstable
environment around Norma appear favorable for more steady to rapid
strengthening through early Thursday. The NHC forecast closely
follows the regional hurricane models in the near term and shows
Norma becoming a major hurricane on Thursday. Thereafter, an
increase in southwesterly shear should begin to disrupt the vertical
structure of Norma and cause some weakening on Friday and through
the weekend. The NHC forecast lies on the higher end of the
guidance, closest to HCCA, during the latter part of the period.

Recent microwave and scatterometer fixes indicate that Norma is
moving northward (350/7 kt). A northward to north-northwestward
motion is expected for the next couple of days or so while the storm
moves around a weak ridge to its east. The track models are in good
agreement on this part of the forecast, and the updated NHC track
forecast is faster than the previous one through 72 h, following the
latest HCCA aid. There remains a significant spread in the track
guidance at days 3-5. The GFS and regional hurricane models (HAFS,
HWRF, HMON) show a northward motion near the southern tip of Baja
this weekend, followed by a northeastward motion toward the coast of
western Mexico. Other global models (ECMWF, UKMET, Canadian) show a
shallower Norma stalling or meandering to the southwest of Baja. The
vertical depth and structure of Norma will likely play a major role
in its long-term track, and there is above average uncertainty in
this part of the track forecast. For now, the NHC forecast remains
closer to the stronger GFS-based guidance, although not as fast as
the deterministic GFS solution.

Given the uncertainty described above, it is difficult to pinpoint
the extent or magnitude of potential impacts to portions of Baja
California or western Mexico over the weekend. Interests in these
areas should closely monitor the latest forecast updates, as more
significant track or intensity adjustments could be required in
future advisories.


Key Messages:

1. Norma is forecast to continue rapidly strengthening through
Thursday while it passes well offshore of southwestern Mexico.

2. There remains greater than normal uncertainty in the track and
intensity forecasts for Norma later this week and this weekend while
it approaches the Baja California peninsula and western Mexico.
Regardless, there is an increasing threat of wind and rainfall
impacts to southern portions of Baja California Sur by Saturday,
and watches could be required there tonight or on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 15.6N 108.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 16.6N 108.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 17.7N 108.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 18.7N 108.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 19.6N 109.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 20.8N 109.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 22.1N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 22.7N 109.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 24.0N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 182048
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
300 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023

...NORMA BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 108.0W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of
Norma. Watches could be required for portions of the area tonight
or on Thursday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 108.0 West. Norma is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward to
north-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected
during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued rapid strengthening is forecast through
tonight, and Norma could become a major hurricane on Thursday.
Gradual weakening is forecast on Friday and Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of
western Mexico and toward Baja California Sur during the next couple
of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 182048
TCMEP2

HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
2100 UTC WED OCT 18 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 108.0W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 108.0W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 107.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.6N 108.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.7N 108.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.7N 108.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.6N 109.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.8N 109.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.1N 110.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 22.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 24.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 108.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 181455
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 AM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023

The satellite presentation of Norma this morning suggests the storm
is strengthening. Deep convection appears to be consolidating near
and over the estimated center of the tropical cyclone. A large
curved band of convection wraps around the eastern portion of its
circulation. The latest objective and subjective satellite estimates
range from 55-63 kt, and the initial intensity is raised to 60 kt
for this advisory. Scatterometer overpasses are expected later
today, which will help assess the structure and extent of Norma's
wind field.

In the near term, the atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear
favorable for continued strengthening. Norma is moving over very
warm (>29C) waters, within a moist and very diffluent upper-level
environment. With only weak to moderate deep-layer southerly shear
expected during the next 12-24 h, Norma should become a hurricane
soon. The statistical rapid intensification (RI) indices indicate RI
is more likely than not during the next 24 h, and the NHC intensity
forecast continues to explicitly show RI with Norma peaking as a
major hurricane in 24-36 h. Then, an increase in southwesterly shear
by this weekend should induce weakening through the rest of the
forecast period. The NHC intensity prediction was lowered at days
4-5 based on the increasingly hostile conditions depicted in the
latest guidance.

Norma is moving north-northwestward (340/6 kt). This general motion
should continue for the next couple of days while the storm moves
around a weak ridge to its east. There is greater than normal
uncertainty in the track forecast beyond 48-60 h, with diverging
solutions among the various track models. Stronger models with a
deeper vortex, including the GFS and regional hurricane models, show
Norma turning northward to northeastward and passing near the
southern tip of Baja California before approaching mainland Mexico.
Some weaker solutions, such as the ECMWF and UKMET, suggest Norma
could meander offshore of Baja California within weak steering
currents or even turn southwestward away from land later in the
period. Given this large spread in the guidance, it seems prudent to
avoid making major track forecast changes this morning. Therefore,
the longer range NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, but
shows little net motion at days 4-5. Future advisories could
require more significant adjustments to the track forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Norma is forecast to become a hurricane later today and continue
strengthening through Thursday while it passes well offshore of
southwestern Mexico.

2. There is greater than normal uncertainty in the track and
intensity forecasts for Norma later this week and this weekend while
it approaches the Baja California peninsula. Regardless, Norma could
bring wind and rainfall impacts to southern portions of Baja
California Sur by Saturday, and interests there should monitor the
latest forecast updates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 14.8N 107.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 15.8N 108.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 16.9N 108.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 17.8N 108.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 18.7N 109.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 19.6N 109.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 20.8N 109.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 21.9N 109.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 22.5N 109.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 181453
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norma Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 AM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023

...NORMA FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 107.9W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of
Norma.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norma was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 107.9 West. Norma is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A
north-northwestward to northward motion at a similar forward speed
is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so,
and Norma is expected to become a hurricane later today. Gradual
weakening is forecast by late this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Norma will begin to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico today. These swells will spread
northward along the coast of western Mexico and toward Baja
California Sur during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 181453
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
1500 UTC WED OCT 18 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 107.9W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 107.9W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 107.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.8N 108.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.9N 108.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.8N 108.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.7N 109.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.6N 109.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.8N 109.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 21.9N 109.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 107.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 180856
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
300 AM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023

Satellite imagery shows Norma quickly becoming better organized. The
Central Dense Overcast is continuing to expand, with cold cloud top
temperatures of less than -90 degrees C. A recent ASCAT pass over
the eastern edge of the storm suggested that the low-level center
was near the southeastern side of the deepest convection. The
initial intensity is set at 55 kt, in agreement with the latest
subjective and objective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and
UW-CIMSS ADT, respectively.

Norma appears to be gradually turning, and the latest motion is
estimated to be 320/6 kt. A weak ridge over Mexico is expected to
steer the storm north-northwestward to northward for about 3 days.
There is still significant uncertainty in the track prediction later
in the forecast period, which is likely related to the anticipated
vortex depth. Global models that show a weaker cyclone, such as the
ECMWF, turn the system westward prior to the Baja California
peninsula. Model guidance with a stronger, deeper circulation tend
to bring the storm farther north and turn it eastward by the end of
the forecast period. The updated official track forecast is very
similar to the previous prediction and is close to the simple model
consensus aid, TVCE. However, there is low confidence in this
forecast given the spread in the model tracks.

Environmental and oceanic conditions are likely to remain conducive
for additional strengthening through the next day or so.
Statistical indices predicting the probability of rapid
intensification, such as SHIPS-RI and DTOPS, suggest a very high
likelihood of rapid strengthening within 24 hours. The latest NHC
intensity forecast explicitly shows rapid intensification, with a
peak of 100 kt by 36 h. By day 2, global model guidance shows that
the deep-layer vertical wind shear should increase over the storm
and likely induce a gradual weakening trend through the remainder of
the forecast period. The official forecast remains near or above
the intensity model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 14.2N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 15.0N 108.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 16.2N 108.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 17.0N 108.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 17.9N 108.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 18.9N 109.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 20.0N 109.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 22.1N 110.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 22.9N 109.4W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 180850
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norma Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
300 AM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023

...NORMA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 107.9W
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norma was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 107.9 West. Norma is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and a
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next
several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Norma is
likely to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 180850
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
0900 UTC WED OCT 18 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 107.9W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 30SE 30SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 107.9W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.0N 108.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 60SE 30SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.2N 108.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.9N 108.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.9N 109.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 109.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 22.1N 110.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 22.9N 109.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 107.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 180239
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023

Norma is becoming better organized on satellite imagery. There is
a developing Central Dense Overcast with very cold cloud tops, and
some convective banding is evident. Upper-level outflow is fairly
well defined over the western semicircle of the circulation. The
current intensity estimate is set at 45 kt in agreement with the
latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.

Based on recent center fixes, the motion is now northwestward, or
around 305/7 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the east of Norma
should maintain a slow northwestward to north-northwestward track
for the next 48 to 72 hours. Later in the forecast period, there is
significant uncertainty in the track, since the model guidance at 3
to 5 days is not in very good agreement. The ECMWF and UKMET show a
weakening cyclone moving along the western side of the guidance
envelope whereas the GFS show a strong system moving much more to
the northeast. The 4- and 5-day official forecast positions
are close to the simple and corrected model consensus predictions.
However there is low confidence in this forecast, given the spread
in the model tracks.

For the next couple of days, the storm should be in an atmospheric
and oceanic environment that will be quite conducive for
strengthening. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) indices and
the DTOPS probabilities for RI suggest a high likelihood for
significant strengthening during the next 48 hours or so. This is
also reflected in the NHC intensity forecast, which explicitly
shows RI in the earlier part of the period. In 3 to 5 days, higher
south-southwesterly vertical wind shear and drier air is likely to
inhibit strengthening. The official forecast is near or above the
intensity model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 13.7N 107.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 14.4N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 16.5N 108.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 17.3N 108.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 18.2N 109.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 19.2N 109.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 21.3N 110.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 22.5N 109.8W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 180237
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norma Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023

...NORMA STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 107.8W
ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norma was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 107.8 West. Norma is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a
northwestward to north-northwestward motion at a slightly slower
forward speed is expected during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and
Norma is likely to become a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 180235
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
0300 UTC WED OCT 18 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 107.8W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 30SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 107.8W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 107.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.4N 108.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 60SE 30SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N 108.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N 108.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.2N 109.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.2N 109.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 21.3N 110.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.5N 109.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 107.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 172016
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
300 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023

Satellite imagery this afternoon depicts that the area the National
Hurricane Center has been monitoring offshore of the southwestern
coast of Mexico (EP90) has become better organized. Showers and
thunderstorms have been consolidating, with curved band features
developing around a recently well-defined low-level center.
Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are T2.5/T3.0 from
TAFB and SAB, respectively. Given the improved satellite
presentation and these intensity estimates, advisories are being
initiated on Tropical Storm Norma with an initial intensity of 35
kt.

Norma is in a fairly conducive environment for intensification. Low
vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and favorable
upper-level diffluence will likely lead to steady to rapid
strengthening for the next few days. DTOPS and SHIPS rapid
intensification (RI) indices are between 60 to 70 percent for a 55
kt increase over the next 48 hours, and the NHC forecast is near
that value, explicitly forecasting RI between 12 to 36 hours.
Towards the end of the forecast, increasing vertical wind shear and
potential drier air intrusions could cause the system to gradually
weaken. The NHC forecast lies just below the HCCA HFIP corrected
consensus aids, and it is noted that the HAFS-A/B hurricane regional
models show a higher, but still plausible, peak intensity.

Norma is moving west-northwestward at an estimated motion of 285/9
kt. The system is expected to turn more northwestward at a slightly
slower forward speed during the next few days around the western
periphery of a mid-level ridge. Towards the end of the forecast
period as the system moves toward the Baja peninsula, there is a
notable divergence among the model suite. A stronger vortex, as
depicted in the GFS/CMC model, would be picked up by an approaching
trough from the northwest and move the system northeastward towards
the Baja peninsula. However, a weaker vortex would tend to meander
south of the peninsula and be missed by the approaching trough,
like the ECMWF/UKMET solutions. Since the NHC intensity forecast
is on the strong side of the guidance, the official track is closer
to the right side of the guidance envelope, more similar to the GFS
and HCCA models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 13.2N 107.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 13.8N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 15.0N 108.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 16.0N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 16.9N 108.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 17.8N 109.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 18.7N 109.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 20.9N 110.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 22.5N 110.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 172016
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norma Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
300 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023

...TROPICAL STORM NORMA DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 107.3W
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norma was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 107.3 West. Norma is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a
west-northwest to northwest motion at a slightly slower forward
speed is expected during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Norma could become a
hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 172016
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
2100 UTC TUE OCT 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 107.3W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 107.3W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 107.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.8N 108.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 50SE 30SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.0N 108.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.0N 108.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.9N 108.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N 109.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.7N 109.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 20.9N 110.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N 110.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 107.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY



>