Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MAX-23
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 101000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (MAX) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (MAX) WARNING NR 010
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 16E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 18.6N 100.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 100.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.1N 99.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
101000Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 100.6W. 10OCT23.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (MAX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1215 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100600Z IS 1007 MB.
REFER TO HURRICANE 15E (LIDIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 100841
TCDEP1

Remnants Of Max Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023

Satellite images show that any convection associated with Max has
weakened, and there are no signs of a well-defined surface center.
Thus this system has dissipated over the high terrain of Mexico,
and the initial wind speed is set to 20 kt in accordance with a
rapid weakening rate. Any future rainfall from this system is not
anticipated to be significant.

This is the last advisory from the National Hurricane Center on
this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 19.5N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS OF
12H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 100840
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Max Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023

...MAX DISSIPATES OVER MEXICO...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 100.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM NNE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...40 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Max were located near
latitude 19.5 North, longitude 100.5 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h).

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (40 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Max will affect the southern coast of
Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 100840
TCMEP1

REMNANTS OF MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023
0900 UTC TUE OCT 10 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 100.5W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 100.5W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 100.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 100.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 100400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 16E (MAX) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16E (MAX) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 17.9N 101.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 101.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.8N 100.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100400Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 100.8W.
10OCT23. TROPICAL STORM 16E (MAX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1239 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 01000Z IS 1002 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LIDIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 100243
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Max Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023

After making landfall earlier today in southern Mexico, the
satellite presentation of Max has degraded somewhat this evening,
and the center of circulation has become more ill-defined. However,
deep convection remains along and near the coast, which is likely
producing flooding rainfall as the system moves over the higher
terrain of southern Mexico. Based on recent observations from
coastal Mexico and satellite trends, Max is downgraded to a
depression for this advisory, with the intensity set at 30 kt.

Max is moving north-northeastward at 030/6 kt and should continue
on this trajectory until it dissipates late tonight or tomorrow.
Once the system dissipates, the remnants of Max will continue
to move north-northeastward and still have the potential to produce
life-threatening flooding across the higher terrain of Mexico over
the next day or so.


Key Messages:

1. Max is forecast to continue producing gusty winds through
tonight to portions of the southern coast of Mexico.

2. Heavy rains from Max will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 18.1N 100.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 18.8N 100.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 100243
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Max Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023

...MAX NOW A DEPRESSION AND MOVING WELL INLAND OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING LIKELY ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 100.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ENE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the coast of southern Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Max was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 100.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue as Max moves farther
inland over southern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Max is expected to continue weakening as it moves
farther inland, with the depression expected to dissipate over
Mexico late tonight or early Tuesday morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Max can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml

RAINFALL: Max is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Tuesday across the
states of Guerrero and Michoacan. These rains will likely produce
flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of
higher terrain near the coast.

WIND: Periods of gusty winds are possible tonight and early
Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Max will affect the southern coast of
Mexico for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 100242
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023
0300 UTC TUE OCT 10 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 100.9W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 100.9W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 101.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.8N 100.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 100.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 092357
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Max Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
700 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023

...MAX MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 101.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Max was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 101.2 West. Max has
been moving due north over the last several hours, but it is
expected to resume a motion toward the north-northeast near
7 mph (11 km/h). This motion is expected to continue until
dissipation as the cyclone moves further inland over southern
Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue as Max
moves farther inland, with the storm expected to dissipate over
Mexico late tonight or on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Max can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml

RAINFALL: Max is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Tuesday across the
states of Guerrero and Michoacan. These rains will likely produce
flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of
higher terrain near the coast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area
and expected to continue through this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Max will affect the southern coast of
Mexico for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 092200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 16E (MAX) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16E (MAX) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 17.4N 101.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 101.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.2N 100.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
092200Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 101.0W.
09OCT23. TROPICAL STORM 16E (MAX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1258 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091800Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 092100Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LIDIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 092037
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Max Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023

Max is estimated to have made landfall around 1800 UTC just to the
west of Puerto Vicente Guerrero in the Mexican Provence of Guerrero.
Data received from the a Mexican surface observing site at that
location just after the intermediate advisory suggested the
tropical storm might have been a little stronger than initially
assessed, reporting sustained tropical-storm-force winds with a
minimum pressure of 994 mb. Thus, the 18 UTC working best track
intensity was adjusted to 55 kt with a 991 mb pressure. Since that
time, the satellite structure has begun to degrade, likely as the
surface circulation begins to be disrupted by the high rugged
terrain of south-central Mexico. Thus, some weakening is assumed
since that time with the current intensity assessed at 50 kt.
Further rapid weakening is anticipated as the small tropical cyclone
moves further inland, and by this time tomorrow Max is likely to be
little more than a remnant mid-level circulation moving poleward
with enhanced moisture over central Mexico.

The initial motion still appears to be north-northeast at 030/5 kt.
This motion should continue until Max dissipates over the higher
terrain of Mexico. The track guidance following the low-level center
quickly lose the system beyond 12 h, and the updated track forecast
is little changed from the prior one. Even as Max dissipates, its
mid-level remains and larger moisture plume will likely result in
significant upslope rainfall, leading to flash flooding and
mudslides pushing into inland Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Max is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions
through this evening to portions of the southern coast of Mexico
where a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect.

2. Heavy rains from Max will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 17.6N 101.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 18.2N 100.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 092036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Max Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023

...MAX MOVING INLAND INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 101.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the tropical storm warning
from Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Max was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 101.0 West. Max is
moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue until dissipation as the cyclone
moves further inland over southern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid weakening is expected as Max moves inland, with the storm
expected to dissipate over Mexico on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. In the past few hours, a surface observing station
at Puerto Vicente Guerrero reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (66
km/h) with a wind gust up to 72 mph (116 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Max can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml

RAINFALL: Max is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Tuesday across the
states of Guerrero and Michoacan. These rains will likely produce
flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of
higher terrain near the coast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area
and expected to continue through this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Max will affect the southern coast of
Mexico for the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 092036
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023
2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 101.0W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 20NE 50SE 50SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 45SE 45SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 101.0W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 101.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.2N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 101.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 10/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 091756
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Max Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
100 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023

...MAX MAKING LANDFALL IN MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 101.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Max was
making landfall located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 101.2
West. Max is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue through tomorrow. On the
forecast track, Max should move inland over southern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid weakening is expected as Max moves inland, with the storm
expected to dissipate over Mexico on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. In the past few hours, a surface observing station
at Puerto Vicente Guerrero reported a wind gust of 51 mph (83 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). A
surface observing station at Puerto Vicente Guerrero recently
reported a minimum surface pressure of 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Max can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml

RAINFALL: Max is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Tuesday across the
states of Guerrero and Michoacan. These rains will likely produce
flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of
higher terrain near the coast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area
and expected to overspread the warning area throughout the day.

SURF: Swells generated by Max will affect the southern coast of
Mexico for the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 091600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 16E (MAX) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16E (MAX) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 16.9N 101.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 101.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.7N 100.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091600Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 101.2W.
09OCT23. TROPICAL STORM 16E (MAX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1273 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091200Z IS
996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15E (LIDIA) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 091442
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Max Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023

Max has continued to intensify this morning as it nears landfall in
Mexico. The overnight convection appears to have wrapped around the
center, with an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass showing a low-level
cyan ring on the 37 GHz channel, suggesting formative inner-core
features. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T3.0/45 kt from
TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB. The initial intensity was raised to 50
kt at 12 UTC, and that will remain the intensity for this advisory.
This value also is close to the latest UW CIMSS D-PRINT estimate.
While not shown in the forecast below, Max could intensify a little
more, and be near its max intensity at landfall, sometime in the
next 3-6 hours. However, rapid weakening should begin by this
evening as the surface circulation is quickly disrupted by the high
rugged terrain of Mexico, with dissipation likely by tomorrow.

Max appears to have started a north-northeastward motion this
morning, estimated at 030/4 kt. This motion is expected to continue
until the storm moves inland later this afternoon. As the storm
moves inland, the surface circulation will quickly become difficult
to track, though its mid-level remains and larger moisture plume
should push further inland into Mexico, even after the storm
dissipates by early on Tuesday.


Key Messages:

1. Max is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions
today to portions of the southern coast of Mexico where a Tropical
Storm Warning remains in effect.

2. Heavy rains from this system will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 17.1N 101.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 17.7N 100.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 091438
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Max Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023

...MAX CLOSING IN ON THE MEXICAN COASTLINE...
...LIKELY TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 101.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Max was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 101.2 West. Max is
moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through tomorrow. On the forecast
track, Max should make landfall by this afternoon within the warning
area, then move farther inland over southern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Max could intensify up until it makes landfall this afternoon, with
rapid weakening expected afterwards. Max should dissipate over
Mexico on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. In the past few hours, a surface observing station
at Puerto Vicente Guerrero reported a wind gust of 41 mph
(65 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). A
surface observing station at Puerto Vicente Guerrero recent reported
a minimum surface pressure of 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Max can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml

RAINFALL: Max is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Tuesday across the
states of Guerrero and Michoacan. These rains will likely produce
flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of
higher terrain near the coast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area
and expected to overspread the warning area throughout the day.

SURF: Swells generated by Max will affect the southern coast of
Mexico for the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 091433
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023
1500 UTC MON OCT 09 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 101.2W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 45SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 101.2W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 101.4W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.7N 100.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 101.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 09/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 091151
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Max Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023

...MAX STRENGTHENING NEAR THE MEXICAN COASTLINE...
...COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 101.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Max was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 101.4 West. Max is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (8 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, Max
should make landfall later today within the warning area, then move
farther inland over southern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Max could intensify up until it makes landfall later
today, with rapid weakening expected afterwards. Max should
dissipate over Mexico on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Max can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml

RAINFALL: Max is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Tuesday across the
states of Guerrero, Michoacan and the coastal sections of western
Oaxaca in southwest Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash
and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of
higher terrain near the coast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area
and expected to overspread the warning area throughout the day.

SURF: Swells generated by Max will affect the southern coast of
Mexico for the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 091000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 16E (MAX) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16E (MAX) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 16.5N 101.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 101.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.5N 101.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.7N 101.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
091000Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 101.5W.
09OCT23. TROPICAL STORM 16E (MAX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1285 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090600Z IS
998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091600Z, 092200Z AND 100400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15E
(LIDIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 090845
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Max Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023

Satellite images indicate that Max has become better organized,
with a large burst of convection near the center and a well-defined
banding feature in the southern semicircle of the storm. Recent
scatterometer data indicates maximum winds of 40-45 kt, so the
initial wind speed is set to 45 kt on this advisory. Further
strengthening is possible in a conducive environment before Max
makes landfall later today. Rapid weakening is then anticipated
this evening over the high terrain of Mexico. The new forecast is
similar to the previous one, but a bit higher due to the initial
intensity.

Max has turned northward or 010/5 kt this morning, and this general
motion is forecast until landfall later today. The biggest
change on this advisory is that the landfall of Max is expected to
be sooner and farther east than before, which is consistent with
recent trends and the latest model solutions. Max should dissipate
over southern Mexico early on Tuesday.

Key Messages:

1. Max is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions
today to portions of the southern coast of Mexico where a Tropical
Storm Warning remains in effect.

2. Heavy rains from this system will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 16.8N 101.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 17.5N 101.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR COAST
24H 10/0600Z 18.7N 101.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 090844
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Max Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023

...MAX STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 101.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Max was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 101.5 West. Max is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, Max
should make landfall later today within the warning area, then move
farther inland over southern Mexico.

Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Max could
get a little stronger before making landfall later today, with
rapid weakening expected by this evening. Max should dissipate
over Mexico on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Max can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml

RAINFALL: Max is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Tuesday across the
states of Guerrero, Michoacan and the coastal sections of western
Oaxaca in southwest Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash
and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of
higher terrain near the coast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area
and expected to overspread the warning area throughout the day.

SURF: Swells generated by Max will affect the southern coast of
Mexico for the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 090843
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023
0900 UTC MON OCT 09 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 101.5W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 101.5W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 101.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.5N 101.4W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.7N 101.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 101.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 09/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 090556
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Max Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
100 AM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FROM MAX EXPECTED ALONG THE MEXICAN
COAST BY DAWN...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 101.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Max was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 101.7 West. Max is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a gradual
north-northeastward turn is expected later today. Max is forecast
to reach the coast of southern Mexico within the warning area
during the day today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours before
landfall, and rapid weakening is expected after the system moves
inland on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Max can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml

RAINFALL: Max is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Tuesday across the
states of Guerrero, Michoacan and the coastal sections of western
Oaxaca in southwest Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash
and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of
higher terrain near the coast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area within the next few hours, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 090246
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Max Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E has strengthened into Tropical Storm
Max. Visible and infrared satellite imagery this evening indicates
that the system maintains a well-defined center, which was further
confirmed by recent AMSR-2 and SSMIS microwave passes.
Additionally, deep convection, which was only loosely organized
over a large area for most of the day, has increased in intensity
tonight in a concentrated area to the southwest of the center.
Subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased, and
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS also support an increase in
intensity since the prior advisory. Thus, the initial intensity for
this advisory is set at 35 kt.

Max is continuing to move north-northwestward at 340/5 kt. The
storm is expected to gradually turn northward and eventually
north-northeastward tonight and tomorrow. The primary steering
influences are a mid-level ridge over the Caribbean Sea to the
storm's east, and Tropical Storm Lidia to its west. Max is expected
to make landfall in the next 24 h or so, although some uncertainty
remains in the exact timing and location, with global models
differing in the forward speed. Regardless of the exact timing and
landfall location, tropical storm impacts are expected to occur far
from the landfall location. The current NHC forecast represents a
blend of the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids, and it is slightly west
of the prior forecast.

The current intensity forecast indicates intensification prior to
landfall in Mexico. Some of the dynamical models indicate
intensification in the next 12-24 h, but with limited time
before landfall and moderate easterly wind shear that will persist
through tomorrow, the system is expected to remain a tropical
storm at landfall. After landfall, Max is forecast to weaken rapidly
as it interacts with the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico.
However, this interaction of the storm's circulation with the
terrain is likely to result in heavy rainfall as the storm
dissipates and its remnants continue moving inland on Tuesday. The
NHC intensity forecast is similar to the prior forecast and is on
the high end of the guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Max is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to portions
of the southern coast of Mexico on Monday where a Tropical Storm
Warning remains in effect.

2. Heavy rains from this system will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the states of Guerrero, Michoacan and coastal sections of
western Oaxaca.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 16.3N 101.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 17.0N 102.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 17.8N 101.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 18.6N 101.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 090244
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Max Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM MAX...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST
BY MONDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 101.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Max was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 101.9 West. Max is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a
gradual northward and then north-northeastward turn is expected
tonight and during the day on Monday. Max is forecast to reach the
coast of southern Mexico within the warning area by late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours before landfall,
and rapid weakening is expected after the system moves inland on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Max can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml

RAINFALL: Max is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Tuesday across the
states of Guerrero, Michoacan and the coastal sections of western
Oaxaca in southwest Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash
and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of
higher terrain near the coast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Monday, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 090243
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023
0300 UTC MON OCT 09 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 101.9W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 101.9W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 101.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.0N 102.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.8N 101.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.6N 101.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 101.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 09/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 082358
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
700 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023

...DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST
TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 101.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Sixteen-E was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 101.9
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph
(7 km/h), and a gradual turn northward and then north-northeastward
is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the
depression is forecast to reach the coast of southern Mexico within
the warning area by late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and the
system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight. Rapid
weakening is expected after the system moves inland on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the disturbance can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Sixteen-E is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches
through Tuesday across the states of Guerrero, Michoacan and the
coastal sections of western Oaxaca in southwest Mexico. These rains
will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible
mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Monday, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 082039
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023

Since the prior advisory, 1-minute visible images from the GOES-18
mesosector have been quite helpful in showing that the system we
have been monitoring just south of Zihuatanejo has developed a
well-defined circulation located a bit farther northwest of previous
estimations. This circulation was farther supported by a 1702 UTC
GMI pass which showed tightly curved bands wrapping most of the way
around this apparent center on the 37 GHz channel. Thus, the system
now can be considered a tropical depression, and the initial
intensity is 30 kt for this advisory, which is in between the
T1.5/25-kt estimates from TAFB and SAB versus 35-kt from the D-PRINT
estimate from UW-CIMSS.

Now that the center has become well-defined, it has formed farther
northwest than earlier estimated. This should not be considered an
acceleration in the short-term motion though, which still appears to
be slowly off to the north-northwest at 340/4 kt. This slow motion
is expected to continue with a gradual turn northward and then
north-northeastward as the system is steered around mid-level
ridging located east of it over the Caribbean Sea in addition to the
outer circulation of Tropical Storm Lidia to its west. Given the
farther northwestward initial position, the timing for landfall has
moved up a bit to between 24-36 h, by tomorrow evening. There
continues to be some spread in this landfall timing, with the GFS
remaining on the faster end versus the slower CMC and ECMWF
solutions. The latest NHC track forecast more or less splits the
difference, which is close to both the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids,
though most of the guidance now agrees the system should be inland
after 36 hours.

Intensification is still forecast up until the system moves inland
over Mexico. With landfall now between 24-36 h, there might not be
quite as much time for intensification as previously expected. With
that said, both the raw model output from the ECMWF and CMC suggest
significant intensification over the next 24 hours before the
depression makes landfall, and out of respect of these models, a
peak intensity of 45 kt continues to be shown just before landfall.
This is on the higher end of the intensity guidance envelope. The
system should quickly weaken after moving inland, ultimately
dissipating over the higher rugged terrain of south-central Mexico
by 48 hours. However, the significant up-slope flow that will result
is anticipated to continue producing very heavy rainfall into
Tuesday over coastal and inland Mexico as the cyclone and its
remnants move farther inland.


Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm before it
approaches the coast of southern Mexico on Monday. A Tropical Storm
Warning remains in effect for a portion of the coast of southern
Mexico.

2. Heavy rains from this system will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the states of Guerrero, Michoacan and coastal sections of
western Oaxaca.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 15.9N 101.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 16.5N 101.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 17.2N 101.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 18.0N 101.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 082039
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCATED FARTHER
NORTHWEST...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE MEXICAN
COAST TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 101.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Sixteen-E was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 101.7
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph
(7 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue with a gradual turn
northward and north-northeastward through late Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to reach
the coast of southern Mexico within the warning area by late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and this system
is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight. Rapid weakening is
expected after the system moves inland on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the disturbance can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Sixteen-E is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches
through Tuesday across the states of Guerrero, Michoacan and the
coastal sections of western Oaxaca in southwest Mexico. These rains
will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible
mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Monday, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 082038
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023
2100 UTC SUN OCT 08 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 101.7W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 101.7W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 101.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.5N 101.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.2N 101.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.0N 101.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 101.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 09/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 081744
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
100 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023

...DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED CENTER...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE SHORTLY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 101.2W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.2 North, longitude 101.2 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow north-northwestward
motion is forecast to continue through late Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of the disturbance is forecast to reach the coast
of southern Mexico within the warning area by late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
this system is forecast to become a tropical storm by this evening.

Satellite imagery indicates the low-level center is becoming better
defined, and it is expected to become a tropical depression or
storm later this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the disturbance can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to
8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Tuesday across the
states of Guerrero, Michoacan and the coastal sections of western
Oaxaca in southwest Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash
and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher
terrain near the coast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Monday, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 081442
TCDEP1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023

The system appears to be getting slowly better organized this
morning, though it remains unclear if a well-defined center has
formed. An SSMIS pass at 1110 UTC revealed a decent curved
convective band to the northwest of the best low-level turning, but
there is a lack of clear evidence of a tighter low-level circulation
on the low-level 37 GHz channel. First-light visible images on the
1-minute GOES-18 meso-sector also remain unclear on the circulation
definition. Thus, the system remains a potential tropical cyclone,
but given the improvement in banding the initial intensity was
raised to 30 kt, a bit higher than the TAFB and SAB Dvorak
estimates.

First-light visible imagery suggests the best position of the system
right now is just a little north and west of overnight estimate,
resulting in a slow northwest motion at 320/4 kt. The overall track
reasoning remains unchanged, as the system is expected to move
north-northwestward or northward over the next 24-36 h, in between a
mid-level ridge centered to its east over the northwest Caribbean,
and Tropical Storm Lidia located to its west. This motion should
bring the system inland over Mexico just beyond 36 h from now.
However, notable differences in the timing of landfall between the
guidance remain. The GFS model, in addition to the
hurricane-regional models based on the GFS initial conditions
(HWRF, HMON, HAFS-A/B) continue to be much faster than other global
model guidance such as the ECMWF and CMC. This disagreement is
likely at least partially related to the fact the disturbance does
not yet have a well-defined center, and may potentially form further
north closer to land. For now, the NHC track forecast leans towards
the slower solutions, but has shifted a bit east compared to the
previous track, and is a little slower than the consensus aid TVCE.

Given the gradually improving structure, the system is expected to
become a tropical cyclone soon, and most of the intensity guidance
suggest continued intensification up till landfall. The NHC
intensity forecast continues to show a peak intensity of 45 kt near
landfall, which is on the high end of the intensity guidance that
appears biased by the GFS and its hurricane-regional models that
bring the system inland faster than shown here. It is notable that
the ECMWF and CMC show a stronger tropical cyclone than the NHC
forecast, mainly because they spend a longer period of time
offshore.

Based on the latest forecast showing the system near landfall in
36 h, the government of Mexico has upgraded the area previously
under a Tropical Storm Watch to a Warning.

Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before it
approaches the coast of southern Mexico on Monday. A tropical storm
warning is now in effect for a portion of the coast of southern
Mexico.

2. Heavy rains from this system will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the states of Guerrero, Michoacan and coastal sections of
western Oaxaca.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 15.0N 101.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 09/0000Z 15.5N 101.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 09/1200Z 16.2N 101.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 17.1N 101.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 18.0N 101.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 081440
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023

...DISTURBANCE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED BUT NOT YET A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 101.1W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Warning for the coast of southern Mexico from Acapulco westward to
Punta San Telmo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 15.0 North, longitude 101.1 West. The system is moving
toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northwestward to
north-northwestward motion is forecast to continue through late
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance is
forecast to reach the coast of southern Mexico within the warning
area by late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and this
system is forecast to become a tropical storm by this evening.

Satellite imagery indicate the system is gradually becoming better
organized, and it is forecast to become a tropical depression or
storm later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the disturbance can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to
8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Tuesday across the
states of Guerrero, Michoacan and the coastal sections of western
Oaxaca in southwest Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash
and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher
terrain near the coast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Monday, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 081438
TCMEP1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023
1500 UTC SUN OCT 08 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 101.1W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 101.1W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 100.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.5N 101.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.2N 101.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.1N 101.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.0N 101.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 101.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 08/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 081141
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
700 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023

...DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 100.8W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
14.7 North, longitude 100.8 West. The system is moving slowly toward
the northwest near 5 mph (8 km/h). A slow northwestward to
north-northwestward motion is forecast to continue through late
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance is
forecast to approach the coast of southern Mexico within the watch
area on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
this system could become a tropical storm later today.

This system is expected to become a tropical depression later
today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the disturbance can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to
8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
states of Guerrero and Michoacan in southwest Mexico. These rains
will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible
mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 080833
TCDEP1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023

This system has become a bit better organized since the last
advisory with increased convection near the cloud system center.
Still, there's not much curvature to the thunderstorm activity and
no clear signs that the system has become a tropical cyclone,
although it is closer than yesterday. So the system will remain
a potential tropical cyclone, and the initial wind speed is held at
25 kt, consistent with earlier ship data.

Much of this forecast is based on the previous NHC prediction since
there hasn't been a lot of in situ or microwave data overnight.
The initial motion estimate remains northwest at 6 kt. The system
is forecast to turn north-northwestward late today between a
mid-level ridge to its east and Tropical Storm Lidia to its west.
This motion should bring the center of the system near the southern
coast of Mexico in about 36-48 hours. The GFS seems
unrealistically fast with landfall in less than 24 hours given the
flow regime. Only a small adjustment to the left was made to the
previous forecast, near but slower than the consensus aids.

The disturbance has some chance to intensify over very warm waters
in moderate shear conditions. Model guidance has generally come
down, however, but this appears to be due to the GFS-based
guidance having too fast of a forward speed, which limits the
system's time over water, rather than a change in the near-term
environment. Little change was made to the previous forecast, though
this prediction is now on the higher side of the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before it
approaches the coast of southern Mexico on Monday. A tropical storm
watch remains in effect, and tropical storm warnings could be
required later today for a portion of the coast of southern Mexico.

2. Heavy rains from this system will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 14.5N 100.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 08/1800Z 15.3N 101.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 09/0600Z 16.1N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 16.9N 101.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 17.9N 101.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/1800Z 19.0N 101.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 080832
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023

...DISTURBANCE LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 100.7W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
14.5 North, longitude 100.7 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower northwestward to
north-northwestward motion is forecast later today and continue
through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the
disturbance is forecast to approach the coast of southern
Mexico within the watch area on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
this system could become a tropical storm late today.

This system is expected to become a tropical depression later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the disturbance can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to
8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
states of Guerrero and Michoacan in southwest Mexico. These rains
will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible
mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 080831
TCMEP1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023
0900 UTC SUN OCT 08 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 100.7W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 100.7W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 100.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.3N 101.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.1N 101.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.9N 101.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.9N 101.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.0N 101.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 100.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 08/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 080544
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
100 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 100.3W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
14.2 North, longitude 100.3 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower northwestward to
north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin later today and
continue through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of
the disturbance is forecast to approach the coast of southern
Mexico within the watch area on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of
days, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical
depression later today and a tropical storm tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the disturbance can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to
8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
states of Guerrero and Michoacan in southwest Mexico. These rains
will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible
mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 080241
TCDEP1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2023

A couple of SSMIS microwave overpasses this evening show that
the disturbance (EP99) located a couple of hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico, is becoming better organized. There is evidence
of some curved banding over the southwestern portion of the
system. While the disturbance does not have enough organization to
be a classified as a tropical cyclone, it is expected to develop
into one within the next day or so, and the forecast track brings it
near the southern coast of Mexico within the next 36 to 48 hours.
Therefore, Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories are being initiated
in order to issue a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the
southern coast of Mexico. The initial intensity of the disturbance
is set at 25 kt, which is supported by a couple of earlier ship
observations.

Since the system is still in its formative stage, the initial motion
estimate is a somewhat uncertain 310 degrees at 6 kt. The system
is forecast to move northwestward overnight, but it should turn
north-northwestward on Sunday between a mid-level ridge to its east
and Tropical Storm Lidia to its west. This motion should bring the
center of the system near the southern coast of Mexico in about 48
hours. The GFS is much faster than the remainder of the global
model guidance and takes the center ashore in a little more than 24
hours, while the ECMWF and UKMET models are about 12 to 24 hours
slower. The NHC track forecast is near the various consensus aids,
accounting for the variations in forward speed.

The disturbance is located within a moist atmosphere and over SSTs
of 29-30 degrees C. However, the upper-level environment is not as
conducive as there is currently moderate to strong vertical wind
shear over the system. The shear is forecast to relax during the
next day or two, and this should allow the system to develop into a
tropical cyclone and strengthen into a tropical storm before it
reaches the southern coast of Mexico. The NHC intensity forecast
shows a peak that is similar to the latest HFIP corrected consensus
aid. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and the system
is forecast to dissipate by 72 hours.

Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before it
approaches the coast of southern Mexico on Monday. A tropical storm
watch has been issued for a portion of the southern coast of Mexico.

2. Heavy rains from this system will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 13.9N 100.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 08/1200Z 14.7N 100.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 09/0000Z 15.6N 101.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 16.4N 101.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 17.3N 101.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 18.5N 101.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 080241
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2023

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 100.1W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
coast of southern Mexico from Acapulco westward to Punta San Telmo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 13.9 North, longitude 100.1 West. The system is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue overnight. A slower northwestward to
north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Sunday and
continue through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of
the disturbance is forecast to approach the coast of southern
Mexico within the watch area on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days,
and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression
early Sunday, and a tropical storm late Sunday or Sunday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the disturbance can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to
8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
states of Guerrero and Michoacán in southwest Mexico. These rains
will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible
mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 080240
TCMEP1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023
0300 UTC SUN OCT 08 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 100.1W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 100.1W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 99.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.7N 100.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.6N 101.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.4N 101.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.3N 101.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.5N 101.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 100.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 08/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>