Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BOLAVEN-23
in Northern Mariana Islands, Guam

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 140900
WARNING 140900.
WARNING VALID 150900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2315 BOLAVEN (2315) 950 HPA
AT 38.1N 162.1E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 41 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 142100UTC AT 43.4N 168.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 44.8N 176.3E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 140300
WARNING 140300.
WARNING VALID 150300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2315 BOLAVEN (2315) 950 HPA
AT 36.0N 157.9E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 39 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141500UTC AT 41.0N 165.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150300UTC AT 45.0N 171.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 132100 CCA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2315 BOLAVEN (2315)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 32.8N 154.5E FAIR
MOVE NE 30KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST
30KT 400NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 140900UTC 38.5N 161.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 40KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
24HF 142100UTC 43.3N 168.6E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 132100 CCA
WARNING 132100.
WARNING VALID 142100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2315 BOLAVEN (2315) 945 HPA
AT 32.8N 154.5E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140900UTC AT 38.5N 161.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 142100UTC AT 43.3N 168.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 122100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 231012190243
2023101218 15W BOLAVEN 024 01 040 16 SATL 010
T000 240N 1454E 145 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 269N 1482E 135 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 250 SE QD 200 SW QD 220 NW QD
T024 303N 1525E 115 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 250 SE QD 210 SW QD 240 NW QD
T036 347N 1581E 095 R064 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 240 SE QD 210 SW QD 220 NW QD
T048 397N 1655E 070 R064 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 270 SE QD 210 SW QD 190 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 024
1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 24.0N 145.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0N 145.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.9N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.3N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 34.7N 158.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 39 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 39.7N 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 146.1E.
12OCT23. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 229
NM EAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121800Z IS 909 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
1523100518 73N1567E 15
1523100600 80N1565E 15
1523100606 85N1563E 20
1523100612 89N1561E 20
1523100618 92N1555E 20
1523100700 92N1550E 25
1523100706 90N1546E 30
1523100712 91N1541E 35
1523100718 93N1537E 35
1523100800 95N1532E 35
1523100806 99N1527E 40
1523100812 101N1520E 45
1523100818 104N1511E 50
1523100818 104N1511E 50
1523100900 108N1503E 55
1523100900 108N1503E 55
1523100906 112N1494E 55
1523100906 112N1494E 55
1523100912 120N1485E 55
1523100912 120N1485E 55
1523100918 130N1475E 60
1523100918 130N1475E 60
1523101000 137N1465E 70
1523101000 137N1465E 70
1523101000 137N1465E 70
1523101006 143N1455E 70
1523101006 143N1455E 70
1523101006 143N1455E 70
1523101012 152N1449E 80
1523101012 152N1449E 80
1523101012 152N1449E 80
1523101018 160N1445E 110
1523101018 160N1445E 110
1523101018 160N1445E 110
1523101100 171N1440E 140
1523101100 171N1440E 140
1523101100 171N1440E 140
1523101106 182N1434E 145
1523101106 182N1434E 145
1523101106 182N1434E 145
1523101112 189N1430E 155
1523101112 189N1430E 155
1523101112 189N1430E 155
1523101118 197N1429E 155
1523101118 197N1429E 155
1523101118 197N1429E 155
1523101200 206N1430E 150
1523101200 206N1430E 150
1523101200 206N1430E 150
1523101206 218N1433E 155
1523101206 218N1433E 155
1523101206 218N1433E 155
1523101212 228N1443E 155
1523101212 228N1443E 155
1523101212 228N1443E 155
1523101218 240N1454E 145
1523101218 240N1454E 145
1523101218 240N1454E 145
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 24.0N 145.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0N 145.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.9N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.3N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 34.7N 158.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 39 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 39.7N 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 146.1E.
12OCT23. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 229
NM EAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121800Z IS 909 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 21.8N 143.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 143.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.0N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.8N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
310 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.3N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 34.6N 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 42.5N 171.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 143.9E.
12OCT23. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 217 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120600Z IS
905 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 52 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 20.6N 143.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 143.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.6N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 25.0N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 28.1N 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 32.1N 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 40.7N 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 143.3E.
12OCT23. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 269
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120000Z IS
908 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 50 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 120300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 231012013046
2023101200 15W BOLAVEN 021 01 005 09 SATL 010
T000 206N 1430E 150 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 150 SE QD 135 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 226N 1440E 140 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 150 SW QD 200 NW QD
T024 250N 1460E 130 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 220 SE QD 170 SW QD 250 NW QD
T036 281N 1494E 115 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 250 SE QD 190 SW QD 240 NW QD
T048 321N 1545E 100 R064 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 270 SE QD 210 SW QD 240 NW QD
T072 407N 1688E 070 R064 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 290 SE QD 250 SW QD 200 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 021
1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 20.6N 143.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 143.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.6N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 25.0N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 28.1N 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 32.1N 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 40.7N 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 143.3E.
12OCT23. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 269
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120000Z IS
908 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 50 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
1523100518 73N1567E 15
1523100600 80N1565E 15
1523100606 85N1563E 20
1523100612 89N1561E 20
1523100618 92N1555E 20
1523100700 92N1550E 25
1523100706 90N1546E 30
1523100712 91N1541E 35
1523100718 93N1537E 35
1523100800 95N1532E 35
1523100806 99N1527E 40
1523100812 101N1520E 45
1523100818 104N1511E 50
1523100818 104N1511E 50
1523100900 108N1503E 55
1523100900 108N1503E 55
1523100906 112N1494E 55
1523100906 112N1494E 55
1523100912 120N1485E 55
1523100912 120N1485E 55
1523100918 130N1475E 60
1523100918 130N1475E 60
1523101000 137N1465E 70
1523101000 137N1465E 70
1523101000 137N1465E 70
1523101006 143N1455E 70
1523101006 143N1455E 70
1523101006 143N1455E 70
1523101012 152N1449E 80
1523101012 152N1449E 80
1523101012 152N1449E 80
1523101018 160N1445E 110
1523101018 160N1445E 110
1523101018 160N1445E 110
1523101100 171N1440E 140
1523101100 171N1440E 140
1523101100 171N1440E 140
1523101106 182N1434E 145
1523101106 182N1434E 145
1523101106 182N1434E 145
1523101112 189N1430E 155
1523101112 189N1430E 155
1523101112 189N1430E 155
1523101118 197N1429E 155
1523101118 197N1429E 155
1523101118 197N1429E 155
1523101200 206N1430E 150
1523101200 206N1430E 150
1523101200 206N1430E 150
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 112100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2315 BOLAVEN (2315)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 112100UTC 20.2N 142.9E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 65NM
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 120900UTC 22.1N 143.7E 30NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
24HF 122100UTC 24.4N 145.4E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 131800UTC 29.5N 150.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 141800UTC 38.1N 161.6E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 112100
WARNING 112100.
WARNING VALID 122100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2315 BOLAVEN (2315) 900 HPA
AT 20.2N 142.9E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 65 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 22.1N 143.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 122100UTC AT 24.4N 145.4E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 2315 BOLAVEN (2315)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BOLAVEN IS LOCATED AT 19.7N, 142.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
900HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 115KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP,
INCREASED VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2315 BOLAVEN (2315)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111800UTC 19.7N 142.8E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 65NM
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 120600UTC 21.6N 143.4E 30NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
24HF 121800UTC 23.8N 144.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 131800UTC 29.5N 150.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 141800UTC 38.1N 161.6E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 111800
WARNING 111800.
WARNING VALID 121800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2315 BOLAVEN (2315) 900 HPA
AT 19.7N 142.8E MARIANAS MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 65 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 21.6N 143.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 23.8N 144.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 29.5N 150.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 38.1N 161.6E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 111500
WARNING 111500.
WARNING VALID 121500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2315 BOLAVEN (2315) 900 HPA
AT 19.3N 142.8E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 65 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120300UTC AT 21.0N 143.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
895 HPA, MAX WINDS 120 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121500UTC AT 23.1N 144.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 111500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2315 BOLAVEN (2315)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111500UTC 19.3N 142.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 65NM
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 120300UTC 21.0N 143.1E 30NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 895HPA
MXWD 120KT
GUST 170KT
24HF 121500UTC 23.1N 144.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
45HF 131200UTC 27.7N 148.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 141200UTC 35.7N 158.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 29KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 151200UTC 42.2N 172.9E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 111500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 231011135048
2023101112 15W BOLAVEN 019 01 325 08 SATL 020
T000 189N 1429E 155 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 115 SW QD 170 NW QD
T012 206N 1428E 155 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 225N 1438E 145 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 210 NW QD
T036 248N 1457E 135 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 250 NW QD
T048 277N 1486E 120 R064 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 240 SE QD 180 SW QD 270 NW QD
T072 349N 1583E 100 R064 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 270 SE QD 230 SW QD 230 NW QD
T096 411N 1724E 080 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 250 SE QD 240 SW QD 230 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 019
1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 142.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 142.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.6N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.5N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 24.8N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 27.7N 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 34.9N 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 41.1N 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 142.9E. 11OCT23.
SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO,
HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111200Z IS 904 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 58 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
1523100518 73N1567E 15
1523100600 80N1565E 15
1523100606 85N1563E 20
1523100612 89N1561E 20
1523100618 92N1555E 20
1523100700 92N1550E 25
1523100706 90N1546E 30
1523100712 91N1541E 35
1523100718 93N1537E 35
1523100800 95N1532E 35
1523100806 99N1527E 40
1523100812 101N1520E 45
1523100818 104N1511E 50
1523100818 104N1511E 50
1523100900 108N1503E 55
1523100900 108N1503E 55
1523100906 112N1494E 55
1523100906 112N1494E 55
1523100912 120N1485E 55
1523100912 120N1485E 55
1523100918 130N1475E 60
1523100918 130N1475E 60
1523101000 137N1465E 70
1523101000 137N1465E 70
1523101000 137N1465E 70
1523101006 143N1455E 70
1523101006 143N1455E 70
1523101006 143N1455E 70
1523101012 152N1449E 80
1523101012 152N1449E 80
1523101012 152N1449E 80
1523101018 160N1445E 110
1523101018 160N1445E 110
1523101018 160N1445E 110
1523101100 171N1440E 140
1523101100 171N1440E 140
1523101100 171N1440E 140
1523101106 182N1434E 145
1523101106 182N1434E 145
1523101106 182N1434E 145
1523101112 189N1429E 155
1523101112 189N1429E 155
1523101112 189N1429E 155
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 142.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 142.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.6N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.5N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 24.8N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 27.7N 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 34.9N 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 41.1N 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 142.9E. 11OCT23.
SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO,
HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111200Z IS 904 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 58 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 2315 BOLAVEN (2315)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BOLAVEN IS LOCATED AT 18.9N, 143.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
900HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 115KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. IT HAS ALSO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP,
INCREASED VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2315 BOLAVEN (2315)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111200UTC 18.9N 143.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 65NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
12HF 120000UTC 20.6N 143.0E 30NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 895HPA
MXWD 120KT
GUST 170KT
24HF 121200UTC 22.5N 144.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
48HF 131200UTC 27.7N 148.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 141200UTC 35.7N 158.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 29KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 151200UTC 42.2N 172.9E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 111200
WARNING 111200.
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2315 BOLAVEN (2315) 900 HPA
AT 18.9N 143.0E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 65 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 20.6N 143.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
895 HPA, MAX WINDS 120 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 22.5N 144.0E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 27.7N 148.7E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 35.7N 158.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 42.2N 172.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
956 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 110900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2315 BOLAVEN (2315)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 18.5N 143.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
12HF 112100UTC 20.2N 143.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
24HF 120900UTC 22.0N 143.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 130600UTC 26.1N 147.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 140600UTC 33.3N 155.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 150600UTC 41.1N 168.2E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 110900
WARNING 110900.
WARNING VALID 120900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2315 BOLAVEN (2315) 905 HPA
AT 18.5N 143.2E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 20.2N 143.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 22.0N 143.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 110900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 231011072533
2023101106 15W BOLAVEN 018 01 335 12 SATL 020
T000 182N 1434E 145 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 140 SE QD 145 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 200N 1431E 145 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 218N 1436E 140 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 240N 1451E 130 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 266N 1476E 125 R064 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 240 SE QD 180 SW QD 230 NW QD
T072 329N 1555E 110 R064 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 260 SE QD 220 SW QD 250 NW QD
T096 397N 1683E 085 R064 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 130 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW QD 220 NW QD
T120 425N 1763W 070 R064 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 200 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 290 SE QD 230 SW QD 220 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 018
1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 18.2N 143.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 143.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.0N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.8N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.0N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.6N 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 32.9N 155.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 39.7N 168.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 42.5N 176.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 143.3E. 11OCT23.
SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 413
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110600Z IS 915 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 57 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.//
1523100518 73N1567E 15
1523100600 80N1565E 15
1523100606 85N1563E 20
1523100612 89N1561E 20
1523100618 92N1555E 20
1523100700 92N1550E 25
1523100706 90N1546E 30
1523100712 91N1541E 35
1523100718 93N1537E 35
1523100800 95N1532E 35
1523100806 99N1527E 40
1523100812 101N1520E 45
1523100818 104N1511E 50
1523100818 104N1511E 50
1523100900 108N1503E 55
1523100900 108N1503E 55
1523100906 112N1494E 55
1523100906 112N1494E 55
1523100912 120N1485E 55
1523100912 120N1485E 55
1523100918 130N1475E 60
1523100918 130N1475E 60
1523101000 137N1465E 70
1523101000 137N1465E 70
1523101000 137N1465E 70
1523101006 143N1455E 70
1523101006 143N1455E 70
1523101006 143N1455E 70
1523101012 152N1449E 80
1523101012 152N1449E 80
1523101012 152N1449E 80
1523101018 160N1445E 110
1523101018 160N1445E 110
1523101018 160N1445E 110
1523101100 171N1440E 140
1523101100 171N1440E 140
1523101100 171N1440E 140
1523101106 182N1434E 145
1523101106 182N1434E 145
1523101106 182N1434E 145
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 18.2N 143.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 143.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.0N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.8N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.0N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.6N 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 32.9N 155.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 39.7N 168.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 42.5N 176.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 143.3E. 11OCT23.
SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 413
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110600Z IS 915 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 57 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 2315 BOLAVEN (2315)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BOLAVEN IS LOCATED AT 18.1N, 143.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
915HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 105KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. IT HAS ALSO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL
FT36. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP
AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2315 BOLAVEN (2315)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110600UTC 18.1N 143.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
12HF 111800UTC 19.8N 142.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 120600UTC 21.5N 143.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 130600UTC 26.1N 147.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 140600UTC 33.3N 155.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 150600UTC 41.1N 168.2E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 110600
WARNING 110600.
WARNING VALID 120600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2315 BOLAVEN (2315) 915 HPA
AT 18.1N 143.4E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 19.8N 142.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 21.5N 143.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 26.1N 147.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 33.3N 155.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 41.1N 168.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 110300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2315 BOLAVEN (2315)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110300UTC 17.6N 143.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
12HF 111500UTC 19.4N 143.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 120300UTC 21.0N 143.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 130000UTC 24.5N 145.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 140000UTC 30.6N 152.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
93HF 150000UTC 40.0N 164.9E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 110300
WARNING 110300.
WARNING VALID 120300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2315 BOLAVEN (2315) 925 HPA
AT 17.6N 143.8E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111500UTC AT 19.4N 143.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120300UTC AT 21.0N 143.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 110300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 231011013122
2023101100 15W BOLAVEN 017 01 335 12 SATL RADR 020
T000 171N 1440E 140 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 120 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 188N 1432E 150 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 206N 1432E 145 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 224N 1443E 125 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 180 NW QD
T048 249N 1461E 125 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 220 SE QD 180 SW QD 220 NW QD
T072 307N 1527E 115 R064 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 250 SE QD 220 SW QD 240 NW QD
T096 385N 1643E 090 R064 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 220 SE QD 250 SW QD 210 NW QD
T120 427N 1791W 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 280 NE QD 360 SE QD 340 SW QD 260 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 017
1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 017
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 15W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 17.1N 144.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 144.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.8N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.6N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.4N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 24.9N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 30.7N 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 38.5N 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 42.7N 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
360 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 143.8E.
11OCT23. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110000Z IS 920 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 55 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.
//
1523100518 73N1567E 15
1523100600 80N1565E 15
1523100606 85N1563E 20
1523100612 89N1561E 20
1523100618 92N1555E 20
1523100700 92N1550E 25
1523100706 90N1546E 30
1523100712 91N1541E 35
1523100718 93N1537E 35
1523100800 95N1532E 35
1523100806 99N1527E 40
1523100812 101N1520E 45
1523100818 104N1511E 50
1523100818 104N1511E 50
1523100900 108N1503E 55
1523100900 108N1503E 55
1523100906 112N1494E 55
1523100906 112N1494E 55
1523100912 120N1485E 55
1523100912 120N1485E 55
1523100918 130N1475E 60
1523100918 130N1475E 60
1523101000 137N1465E 70
1523101000 137N1465E 70
1523101000 137N1465E 70
1523101006 143N1455E 70
1523101006 143N1455E 70
1523101006 143N1455E 70
1523101012 152N1449E 80
1523101012 152N1449E 80
1523101012 152N1449E 80
1523101018 160N1445E 110
1523101018 160N1445E 110
1523101018 160N1445E 110
1523101100 171N1440E 140
1523101100 171N1440E 140
1523101100 171N1440E 140
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 017
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 15W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 17.1N 144.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 144.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.8N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.6N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.4N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 24.9N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 30.7N 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 38.5N 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 42.7N 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
360 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 143.8E.
11OCT23. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 110000Z IS 920 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110000Z IS 55 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 2315 BOLAVEN (2315)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BOLAVEN IS LOCATED AT 17.1N, 144.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. IT HAS ALSO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND STRONG
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2315 BOLAVEN (2315)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 17.1N 144.1E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
12HF 111200UTC 18.9N 143.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 120000UTC 20.5N 142.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 130000UTC 24.5N 145.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 140000UTC 30.6N 152.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 150000UTC 40.0N 164.9E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 110000
WARNING 110000.
WARNING VALID 120000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2315 BOLAVEN (2315) 935 HPA
AT 17.1N 144.1E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 18.9N 143.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 20.5N 142.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 24.5N 145.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 30.6N 152.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 40.0N 164.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 102100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2315 BOLAVEN (2315)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 102100UTC 16.5N 144.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
12HF 110900UTC 18.5N 143.1E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 112100UTC 20.2N 143.0E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 121800UTC 23.3N 144.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 131800UTC 28.7N 150.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
93HF 141800UTC 37.4N 160.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE 31KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 151800UTC 43.2N 177.3E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 102100
WARNING 102100.
WARNING VALID 112100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2315 BOLAVEN (2315) 940 HPA
AT 16.5N 144.4E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110900UTC AT 18.5N 143.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 20.2N 143.0E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 102100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 231010193436
2023101018 15W BOLAVEN 016 01 335 09 SATL RADR 020
T000 160N 1445E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 120 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 176N 1436E 120 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 193N 1431E 135 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 211N 1437E 145 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 234N 1451E 140 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 180 NW QD
T072 286N 1504E 115 R064 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 250 SE QD 210 SW QD 250 NW QD
T096 361N 1604E 090 R064 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 230 SE QD 230 SW QD 210 NW QD
T120 409N 1752E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 260 SE QD 240 SW QD 220 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 016
1. TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 16.0N 144.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 144.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.6N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 19.3N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.1N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 23.4N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.6N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 36.1N 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 40.9N 175.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 144.3E.
10OCT23. TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
NORTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101800Z IS 959 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.
//
1523100518 73N1567E 15
1523100600 80N1565E 15
1523100606 85N1563E 20
1523100612 89N1561E 20
1523100618 92N1555E 20
1523100700 92N1550E 25
1523100706 90N1546E 30
1523100712 91N1541E 35
1523100718 93N1537E 35
1523100800 95N1532E 35
1523100806 99N1527E 40
1523100812 101N1520E 45
1523100818 104N1511E 50
1523100818 104N1511E 50
1523100900 108N1503E 55
1523100900 108N1503E 55
1523100906 112N1494E 55
1523100906 112N1494E 55
1523100912 120N1485E 55
1523100912 120N1485E 55
1523100918 130N1475E 60
1523100918 130N1475E 60
1523101000 137N1465E 70
1523101000 137N1465E 70
1523101000 137N1465E 70
1523101006 143N1455E 70
1523101006 143N1455E 70
1523101006 143N1455E 70
1523101012 152N1449E 80
1523101012 152N1449E 80
1523101012 152N1449E 80
1523101018 160N1445E 100
1523101018 160N1445E 100
1523101018 160N1445E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 16.0N 144.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 144.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.6N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 19.3N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.1N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 23.4N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.6N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 36.1N 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 40.9N 175.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 144.3E.
10OCT23. TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
NORTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101800Z IS
959 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 2315 BOLAVEN (2315)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BOLAVEN IS LOCATED AT 16.0N, 144.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND THE EYE IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950HPA
AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. IT HAS ALSO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EXPANSION OF A CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW
TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 101800
WARNING 101800.
WARNING VALID 111800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2315 BOLAVEN (2315) 950 HPA
AT 16.0N 144.5E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 18.0N 143.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 19.8N 142.8E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 23.3N 144.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 28.7N 150.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 37.4N 160.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 43.2N 177.3E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
956 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 101500
WARNING 101500.
WARNING VALID 111500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2315 BOLAVEN (2315) 965 HPA
AT 15.6N 144.7E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110300UTC AT 17.5N 143.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111500UTC AT 19.2N 143.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 100900
WARNING 100900.
WARNING VALID 110900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2315 BOLAVEN (2315) 975 HPA
AT 14.7N 145.4E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100UTC AT 16.8N 144.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110900UTC AT 18.5N 143.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 100300
WARNING 100300.
WARNING VALID 110300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2315 BOLAVEN (2315) 975 HPA
AT 14.2N 145.9E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101500UTC AT 15.9N 144.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110300UTC AT 17.7N 143.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 100300 AMD
WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 231010022106
2023101000 15W BOLAVEN 013A 02 305 12 SATL RADR 030
T000 137N 1465E 070 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 120 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 150N 1443E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 170N 1430E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 191N 1425E 120 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 207N 1425E 135 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 245N 1452E 125 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 220 SE QD 150 SW QD 210 NW QD
T096 298N 1503E 105 R064 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 230 SE QD 190 SW QD 220 NW QD
T120 370N 1594E 090 R064 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 260 SE QD 240 SW QD 220 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 013A AMENDED
1. TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 013A AMENDED
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 13.7N 146.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 146.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.0N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.0N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.1N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.7N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 24.5N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 29.8N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 37.0N 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 146.0E.
10OCT23. TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 93 NM EAST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100000Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 33 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TRACK MORE WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 TO ACCOUNT FOR NEAR-TERM MOTION TRENDS.
//
1523100518 73N1567E 15
1523100600 80N1565E 15
1523100606 85N1563E 20
1523100612 89N1561E 20
1523100618 92N1555E 20
1523100700 92N1550E 25
1523100706 90N1546E 30
1523100712 91N1541E 35
1523100718 93N1537E 35
1523100800 95N1532E 35
1523100806 99N1527E 40
1523100812 101N1520E 45
1523100818 104N1511E 50
1523100818 104N1511E 50
1523100900 108N1503E 55
1523100900 108N1503E 55
1523100906 112N1494E 55
1523100906 112N1494E 55
1523100912 120N1485E 55
1523100912 120N1485E 55
1523100918 130N1475E 60
1523100918 130N1475E 60
1523101000 137N1465E 70
1523101000 137N1465E 70
1523101000 137N1465E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 100300 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 013A AMENDED//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 013A AMENDED
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 13.7N 146.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 146.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.0N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.0N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.1N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.7N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 24.5N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 29.8N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 37.0N 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 146.0E.
10OCT23. TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 93 NM EAST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100000Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 33 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (KOINU) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TRACK MORE
WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 TO ACCOUNT FOR NEAR-TERM MOTION TRENDS.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 013
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 13.7N 146.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 146.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.3N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.1N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.1N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.7N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 24.5N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 29.8N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 37.0N 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 146.0E.
10OCT23. TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 93 NM EAST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100000Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (KOINU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 090900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 231009064546
2023100906 15W BOLAVEN 010 02 295 10 SATL SYNP 020
T000 112N 1494E 060 R050 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 125N 1476E 070 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 140N 1459E 085 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 160N 1445E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 179N 1436E 115 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 210N 1436E 130 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 251N 1464E 115 R064 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 190 NW QD
T120 313N 1528E 090 R064 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 220 SE QD 180 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 11.2N 149.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 149.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 12.5N 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.0N 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.0N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.9N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.0N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 25.1N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 31.3N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 149.0E.
09OCT23. TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
090600Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS
26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO
UPDATES.//
1523100518 73N1567E 15
1523100600 80N1565E 15
1523100606 85N1563E 20
1523100612 89N1561E 20
1523100618 92N1555E 20
1523100700 92N1550E 25
1523100706 90N1546E 30
1523100712 91N1541E 35
1523100718 93N1537E 35
1523100800 95N1532E 35
1523100806 99N1527E 40
1523100812 101N1520E 45
1523100818 104N1511E 50
1523100818 104N1511E 50
1523100900 108N1503E 55
1523100900 108N1503E 55
1523100906 112N1494E 60
1523100906 112N1494E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 11.2N 149.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 149.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 12.5N 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.0N 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.0N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.9N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.0N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 25.1N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 31.3N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 149.0E.
09OCT23. TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
090600Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS
26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (KOINU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 071500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 231007125244
2023100712 15W BOLAVEN 003 02 270 05 SATL SYNP 025
T000 098N 1532E 035 R034 025 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 025 NW QD
T012 099N 1524E 045 R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 103N 1513E 055 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 108N 1500E 065 R050 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 117N 1482E 070 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 144N 1449E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 182N 1428E 100 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 217N 1425E 120 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 9.8N 153.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 153.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 9.9N 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 10.3N 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 10.8N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 11.7N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.4N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.2N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.7N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 153.0E.
07OCT23. TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 541 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071200Z IS 998 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
1523100406 62N1585E 15
1523100412 61N1586E 15
1523100418 63N1580E 15
1523100500 63N1578E 15
1523100506 66N1577E 15
1523100512 68N1572E 15
1523100518 73N1567E 15
1523100600 80N1565E 15
1523100606 85N1563E 20
1523100612 89N1561E 20
1523100618 94N1555E 20
1523100700 97N1545E 25
1523100706 98N1537E 30
1523100712 98N1532E 35
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Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 9.8N 153.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 153.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 9.9N 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 10.3N 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 10.8N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 11.7N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.4N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.2N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.7N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 153.0E.
07OCT23. TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 541 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071200Z IS 998
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 14W (KOINU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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