Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KENNETH-23
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 221447
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kenneth Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
800 AM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Kenneth no longer has organized deep convection. First light visible
imagery shows that Kenneth's circulation is no longer well defined.
It is also located in an environment with high deep-layer shear, dry
air, and cool SSTs. For these reasons, Kenneth has become a
post-tropical remnant low. The 30-kt intensity estimate is based on
overnight ASCAT data, but it is possible the winds have decreased
further since then.

Kenneth is moving generally northward and should continue moving
northward while weakening until it dissipates. This is the last NHC
advisory. For additional information on the remnant low please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 20.5N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 23/0000Z 21.8N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/1200Z 22.8N 126.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/R. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 221446
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Kenneth Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
800 AM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023

...KENNETH IS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AND COULD DISSIPATE SOON...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 125.8W
ABOUT 1035 MI...1660 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Kenneth was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 125.8 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19
km/h), and a slightly slower northward motion is expected later
today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast today. Kenneth could dissipate at any
time.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/R. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 221446
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023
1500 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 125.8W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 125.8W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 125.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.8N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.8N 126.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 125.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY/R. ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 220833
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Kenneth Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Kenneth is just barely enough to be classified as a tropical
cyclone. Satellite imagery shows that the low-level center
continues to be exposed with waning convection displaced to the
north of the system. A recent scatterometer pass indicated that the
system is producing winds around 25-30 kt. Based on the
scatterometer pass, the intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this
advisory, which is also in good agreement with the latest TAFB
Dvorak intensity estimate.

The tropical depression is moving to the north at 9 kt. The system
will continue to move northward during the next day or two, around
a high pressure ridge centered over central Mexico. Towards the end
of the period, the remnant low will begin to move westward in the
low-level flow. There was little change to the previous forecast
track for this advisory.

Kenneth is in a fairly hostile environment with strong vertical wind
shear and cool sea surface temperatures. The system should continue
to gradually weaken in these unfavorable conditions. Kenneth is
forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 19.4N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 20.8N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/0600Z 22.3N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/1800Z 23.2N 126.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0600Z 23.5N 127.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 220831
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Kenneth Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023

...KENNETH BARELY ENOUGH TO BE A DEPRESSION...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 126.0W
ABOUT 1065 MI...1710 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kenneth
was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 126.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue the next day or two with a slightly
slower forward speed. Toward the end of the forecast period, the
system will move more westward.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Kenneth is
expected to become a remnant low later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 220831
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023
0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 126.0W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 126.0W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 126.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.8N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.3N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.2N 126.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.5N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 126.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 220241
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Kenneth is barely clinging to tropical cyclone status. Satellite
imagery shows an exposed low-level center with a small burst of deep
convection displaced over 100 miles to its north. The intensity is
held at 35 kt, closest to the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate.

The tropical storm is still moving to the north-northwest at 6 kt.
Track guidance suggests Nigel should turn northward soon in the flow
around a high pressure system centered over central Mexico. The
latest official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory
prediction. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to
remain hostile and therefore, Nigel should gradually weaken. Global
model simulate satellite imagery indicates there could be occasional
bursts of convection near the center, but the system is still
forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in a day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 18.5N 125.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 19.9N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 21.5N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/1200Z 22.6N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0000Z 23.6N 126.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 220240
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...KENNETH FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 125.9W
ABOUT 1075 MI...1730 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 125.9 West. Kenneth is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward
motion is expected to begin later tonight and continue through
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast, and Kenneth is expected to become
a remnant low on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 220240
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023
0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 125.9W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 125.9W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 125.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.9N 126.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.5N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.6N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.6N 126.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 125.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 212040
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Kenneth is a sheared tropical cyclone. The small area of active
convection associated with the storm has been displaced over 90 n mi
from its exposed low-level center by southwesterly shear. This
deteriorating satellite presentation has caused the intensity
estimates to decrease today. Based on a blend of the latest
objective and subjective Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is
lowered to 35 kt.

Recent satellite images indicate Kenneth has begun its northward
turn, and the initial motion is north-northwestward at 330/6 kt. A
generally northward motion should continue for the next couple of
days as the system moves within the flow between a mid-level trough
to the northwest and a mid-level ridge over central Mexico. There
were no major changes to the track guidance this cycle, and the
latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous prediction. While
simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest Kenneth
could produce intermittent bursts of sheared convection during the
next day or so, the environmental conditions (stronger shear,
progressively cooler SSTs, and a drier and more stable airmass) are
not conducive for sustained convection going forward. Based on these
factors and recent satellite trends, this forecast shows additional
weakening with post-tropical/remnant low status in 24 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 17.9N 125.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 19.2N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 20.9N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/0600Z 22.3N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1800Z 23.4N 125.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 212039
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...KENNETH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 125.7W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 125.7 West. Kenneth is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward
motion is expected to begin later tonight and continue through
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Kenneth is
expected to become a remnant low on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 212039
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023
2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 125.7W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 125.7W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.2N 126.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.9N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.3N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.4N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 125.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 211443
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Microwave and proxy-visible satellite images of Kenneth indicate the
center lies to the southwest of a small area of deep convection.
This is likely the result of increasing southwesterly deep-layer
shear over the tropical cyclone. These data supported a relocation
of the center slightly to the southeast of the previous estimates.
With the center becoming exposed, the objective and subjective
satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease. Thus, the
initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory.

Kenneth is moving northwestward (320/7 kt) between a mid- to
upper-level low to the northwest and a subtropical ridge over
Mexico. The track guidance continues to support a turn toward the
north-northwest and north during the next day or so. Once again, the
NHC forecast update has been adjusted slightly to the right in
agreement with the latest track consensus aids. Environmental
conditions are expected to become increasingly hostile as Kenneth
encounters stronger shear, drier air, and cooler SSTs along its
path. This will make it difficult for Kenneth to sustain organized
convection, and this forecast shows post-tropical/remnant low status
in 36 h based on the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite
imagery. The remnant low is forecast to open into a trough by early
Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 17.1N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 18.2N 126.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 20.1N 126.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 21.6N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1200Z 22.7N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/0000Z 23.9N 126.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 211442
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...KENNETH WEAKENS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 125.5W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 125.5 West. Kenneth is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northwest and north at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected later today and early Friday. A northward motion is
forecast to continue through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Kenneth is
expected to become a remnant low by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 211442
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023
1500 UTC THU SEP 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 125.5W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 125.5W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 125.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.2N 126.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 20.1N 126.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.6N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.7N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.9N 126.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 125.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 210831
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
200 AM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Infrared satellite images indicate that deep convection associated
with Kenneth has been decreasing in intensity during the past
several hours, and accordingly, some of the Dvorak estimates have
been coming down. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, which is
still near a blend of all of the satellite intensity estimates.

Dry air is beginning to wrap into the western portion of the
circulation, and that stable air combined with a significant
increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear will likely cause
deep convection to strip away from the low-level center and result
in weakening that should commence later today. Kenneth is expected
to degenerate into a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours, when it is
forecast to be over sub 26 degree C waters and in an environment of
more than 30 kt of wind shear. The remnant low is now expected to
open into a trough by 72 hours, following most of the models.

Kenneth is moving northwestward at 9 kt in the flow between a mid-
to upper-level low to its northwest and a subtropical ridge
situated over central Mexico. A turn to the north-northwest and
then the north is expected later today and early Friday as Kenneth
continues to move in the flow between the aforementioned features.
The new forecast is shifted a little to the right to be closer to
the GFS and ECMWF models, which are in good agreement.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 17.5N 125.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 18.5N 126.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 20.0N 126.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 21.7N 126.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 22.9N 126.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/1800Z 24.2N 126.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 210831
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
200 AM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...KENNETH FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING SOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 125.6W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 125.6 West. Kenneth is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northwest and north at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected later today and early Friday. A northward motion is
forecast to continue through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Kenneth is expected to
become a remnant low by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 210831
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023
0900 UTC THU SEP 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.6W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.6W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 125.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.5N 126.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.0N 126.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.7N 126.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.9N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.2N 126.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 125.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 210400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 16.6N 124.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 124.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.6N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.0N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.7N 126.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.1N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.1N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.8N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210400Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 125.2W.
21SEP23. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1052
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 210000Z IS 1000 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT211000Z, 211600Z, 212200Z AND 220400Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 210232
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
800 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023

It appears that southerly mid-level shear has set in over Kenneth
during the day, and the surface center is now located on the
southern side of the ongoing convective mass. Dvorak final-T
numbers are a consensus 3.0 from TAFB and SAB, so the initial
intensity remains 45 kt.

The shear appears to have pulled Kenneth's center farther to the
north, and as a result, the storm has turned northwestward with an
initial motion of 310/10 kt. A turn toward the north-northwest and
north is expected over the next 36 hours as Kenneth moves around
the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. Partly because of
the required adjustment of the initial position, the track guidance
has shifted significantly to the north and east on this cycle. The
new NHC track forecast lies very close to the GFS, ECMWF, TVCE, and
HCCA aids, particularly during the first 36 hours of the forecast,
and is as much as 30-40 n mi to the right of the previous
prediction.

As is often the case, the mid-level shear affecting the cyclone was
not foreseen, as nearly all shear diagnostics show that the shear in
a deeper layer of the atmosphere is currently very low. That said,
even the deep-layer shear is forecast to increase to
moderate-to-strong levels in the next 12-24 hours. Simultaneously,
Kenneth will be moving over increasingly cooler waters that are less
than 26 degrees Celsius. Therefore, weakening is expected to begin
by 24 hours, and strong shear and a drier, more stable atmosphere
should cause Kenneth to degenerate into a remnant low by late
Friday. The remnant low could hang around for a few days, opening
up into a trough by Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 16.9N 125.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 17.6N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 19.0N 126.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 20.7N 126.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 22.1N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/1200Z 23.1N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/0000Z 23.8N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 210232
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
800 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023

...KENNETH TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...
...FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 125.2W
ABOUT 1075 MI...1730 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 125.2 West. Kenneth is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northwest and north at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected Thursday and Thursday night. A northward motion is
forecast to continue through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday. Kenneth could
degenerate into a remnant low by late Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 210231
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023
0300 UTC THU SEP 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 125.2W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 125.2W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 124.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.6N 126.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.0N 126.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 20.7N 126.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.1N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.1N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.8N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 125.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 202200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 15.5N 123.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 123.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.2N 125.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.3N 126.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.5N 126.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.0N 127.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.0N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 21.8N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202200Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 124.4W.
20SEP23. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1096
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201800Z IS 1000 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210400Z, 211000Z, 211600Z AND 212200Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 202038
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023

Kenneth's cloud pattern has not changed appreciably during the last
6 hours. The average of the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak numbers is
45 kt. Most of the objective intensity estimates are a bit lower.
Based on the above data, the initial intensity is maintained at 45
kt for this advisory.

The center of Kenneth is estimated to be near the southern edge of
the central dense overcast. However, the current position is quite
uncertain. The initial motion is estimated at 290/9 kt. A turn to
the northwest and north-northwest is expected on Thursday between a
subtropical high centered over northwestern Mexico and a potent
mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest of Kenneth. The track
forecast has been adjusted a bit to the north of the previous NHC
track prediction, but not as far north as the latest consensus
models.

Kenneth is currently located in an environment that is favorable
enough for it to at least maintain its intensity over the next
12-24 hours. However, a more stable air mass is located just to
the north and northwest of the cyclone, as evidenced by scattered
low stratus clouds seen on GOES-18 satellite imagery, indicative of
a marine boundary layer. As Kenneth approaches the mid- to
upper-level trough over the next couple of days, strong
southwesterly wind shear will increasingly encroach on Kenneth.
Kenneth will also cross the 26C isotherm about the same time the
shear ramps up Thursday evening. Therefore, steady weakening is
forecast, and Kenneth should become a remnant low Friday night or
Saturday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and is near the middle of the intensity consensus
aids.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 15.7N 124.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 16.2N 125.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 17.3N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 18.5N 126.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 20.0N 127.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 21.0N 127.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1800Z 21.8N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 202035
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023

...KENNETH MAINTAINING INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 124.2W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 124.2 West. Kenneth is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest and north-northwest is anticipated Thursday
and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected to commence by Thursday night, and Kenneth
should become a remnant low Friday night or early Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 202035
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023
2100 UTC WED SEP 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 124.2W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 124.2W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 123.9W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.2N 125.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.3N 126.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.5N 126.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.0N 127.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.0N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.8N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 124.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 201600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 15.0N 123.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 123.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.6N 124.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.2N 125.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.4N 126.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.9N 127.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.2N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 20.7N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
201600Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 123.5W.
20SEP23. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1110
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201200Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND 211600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 201442
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
800 AM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023

Kenneth's cloud pattern has become a little better organized since
yesterday evening. Conventional imagery and a recent AMSR2
microwave overpass show improved curved banding in the northern and
eastern semi-circles. Accordingly, the initial intensity is raised
to 45 kt for this advisory and is based on a blend of the
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Although not explicitly shown in the official intensity
forecast, there's a possibility that the storm could strengthen
a little more in the short term, but that small window of
opportunity appears to end tomorrow while deep-layer shear
increases along Kenneth's track. This inhibiting upper-level wind
pattern, along with decreasing oceanic surface temperatures and
an invading stable and dry lower boundary marine layer should
induce a weakening trend through dissipation in about 4 days.

Kenneth's anticipated turn toward the west-northwest has
occurred overnight, and the estimated motion is 290/9 kt around
the southwestern periphery of a subtropical high centered over
northwestern Mexico. On Thursday, the cyclone is forecast to
turn northwestward while moving between the above mentioned high
pressure and an approaching mid-tropospheric trough to its
northwest. The NHC track forecast is based primarily on the
HFIP HCCA corrected consensus and only a slight adjustment to the
right of the previous forecast was made beyond the 24-hour period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 15.2N 123.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 15.6N 124.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 16.2N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 17.4N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 18.9N 127.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 20.2N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z 20.7N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 201442
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
800 AM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023

...KENNETH A LITTLE STRONGER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 123.4W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 123.4 West. Kenneth is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest and north-northwest is anticipated Thursday
and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is expected to commence on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 201441
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023
1500 UTC WED SEP 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 123.4W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 123.4W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 123.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.6N 124.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.2N 125.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.4N 126.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.9N 127.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.2N 127.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.7N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 123.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 201000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 14.7N 122.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 122.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.4N 123.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.0N 125.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.8N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.0N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.4N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.3N 128.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
201000Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 122.7W.
20SEP23. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1114
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200600Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
201600Z, 202200Z, 210400Z AND 211000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 200832
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
200 AM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023

Deep convection has been increasing over the past several hours, but
the thunderstorm activity remains confined to the northwest quadrant
of Kenneth due to moderate easterly vertical wind shear. An ASCAT-C
pass caught the western half of the circulation and showed maximum
winds in the 30-35 kt range, but it is possible that stronger winds
exists east of the center. Therefore, the initial intensity is held
at 40 kt, which is a near the average of the latest satellite
intensity estimates that range from 30 to 45 kt.

Kenneth could strengthen a little during the next day or so as the
shear decreases. However, the opportunity for strengthening seems
to end on Thursday when the storm moves into a region of strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear. These hostile winds aloft
combined with dry air entrainment and progressively cooler SSTs
should cause Kenneth to weaken and degenerate into a remnant low in
a few days and dissipate shortly thereafter. The NHC intensity
forecast is slightly lower than the previous one, but still lies at
the high end of the guidance.

The storm is moving westward at 9 kt. A turn to the west-northwest
is expected later today as Kenneth nears the southwestern periphery
of a subtropical ridge. On Thursday, a turn to the northwest is
forecast as Kenneth moves in the flow between the ridge and a mid-
to upper-level trough to its northwest. The models have trended
left this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that
direction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 14.8N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 15.4N 123.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 16.0N 125.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 16.8N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 18.0N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 19.4N 127.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 20.3N 128.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 200831
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
200 AM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023

...KENNETH COULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 122.5W
ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 122.5 West. Kenneth is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward
the northwest and north-northwest Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible today. Weakening
is expected to begin on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 200830
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023
0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 122.5W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 122.5W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 122.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.4N 123.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.0N 125.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.8N 126.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.0N 127.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.4N 127.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.3N 128.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 122.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 200400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 121.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 121.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.1N 123.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.8N 124.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.6N 125.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.7N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.2N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.4N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.4N 128.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
200400Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 121.8W.
20SEP23. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1109
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
200000Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201000Z, 201600Z, 202200Z AND 210400Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 200237
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
800 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 2023

Kenneth is a poorly organized tropical cyclone. The large
convective canopy from earlier this afternoon has mostly
collapsed, with only a couple new convective cells forming well to
the northwest of the center. The initial intensity remains 40 kt
based on the earlier ASCAT data, although satellite intensity
estimates are no higher than about 35 kt.

Microwave data suggests that Kenneth's center has jogged--or
re-formed--a bit to the southwest of the previous fixes. The
long-term motion is gradually slowing down and is now westward, or
270/11 kt. A mid-level high centered over west-central Mexico and a
deep-layer trough extending southwest of California are expected to
steer Kenneth generally toward the northwest through the end of the
week. The NHC track forecast is changed little from the previous
prediction, and lies to the right of the TVCE multi-model consensus,
although not as far to the right as the latest GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA
solutions.

Moderate easterly shear is affecting the storm, but SHIPS
diagnostics suggest the shear should decrease and be relatively
light during the next 36 hours. The NHC forecast shows some modest
strengthening during this period, and is at the upper end of the
guidance envelope to maintain continuity with the previous forecast.
By 48 hours, Kenneth is expected to reach cooler waters, and
deep-layer shear is forecast to increase out of the southwest.
Weakening is therefore expected, and GFS- and ECMWF-based simulated
satellite images indicate that Kenneth could lose organized deep
convection and degenerate into a remnant low by day 3. The remnant
low is forecast to dissipate by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 14.6N 121.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 15.1N 123.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 15.8N 124.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 16.6N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 17.7N 126.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 19.2N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 20.4N 127.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0000Z 21.4N 128.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 200237
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
800 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 2023

...KENNETH COULD STRENGTHEN, BUT IS ONLY FORECAST TO LAST FOR A FEW
DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 121.6W
ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 121.6 West. Kenneth is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest at a slower forward speed is expected overnight,
followed by a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest
Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible through Wednesday. Weakening is
expected to begin by Wednesday night or Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the northwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 200236
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023
0300 UTC WED SEP 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 121.6W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 121.6W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 121.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.1N 123.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.8N 124.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.6N 125.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.7N 126.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.2N 127.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.4N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 21.4N 128.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 121.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 192035
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 2023

SSMIS and GMI microwave overpasses from this morning around 13Z
indicated that the cyclone was still quite disorganized. However,
the satellite presentation has improved since that time. The earlier
northeasterly to easterly shear appears to be abating. A 1714 UTC
ASCAT-B pass confirms that the low-level center is underneath the
central cold convective canopy and also shows tropical-storm-force
winds up to 40 kt in the NW quadrant. Based on the ASCAT pass, the
depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Kenneth with 40-kt winds.

Based on fixes over the past 6 hours, the center appears to have
reformed a bit to the west. The estimated motion is 280/14. A
west-northwestward motion is expected through Wednesday night as
the cyclone is steered by the trade wind flow. After that time, a
potent mid- to upper-level trough approaching from the northwest is
expected to cause Kenneth to turn to the northwest or
north-northwest. The track forecast was adjusted a bit faster and
to the left of the previous NHC prediction, mainly due to the
recent center reformation, which caused some of the simple
consensus models to be farther west this cycle.

The intensity forecast has been adjusted upward based on the higher
initial intensity. Warm ocean temperatures, light northeasterly to
easterly vertical wind shear, and a moist low to mid-level
troposphere currently surround the tropical cyclone. The system has
perhaps 36 hours to strengthen while it remains in these relatively
favorable environmental conditions. The cyclone is forecast to cross
the 26C SST isotherm in about 48 h. The aforementioned approaching
mid- to upper-level trough will induce strong southwesterly vertical
wind shear on the cyclone beginning by 60 h. After that time, much
drier air along with further decreasing ocean temperatures and
increasing wind shear will lead to the cyclone losing its convection
and becoming a remnant low in about 3 to 4 days. Global models show
the system opening up into a trough by Day 5. Given the hostile
conditions the cyclone will be moving into, the NHC forecast follows
suit and calls for dissipation by Day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 15.1N 121.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 15.4N 122.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 15.9N 124.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 16.4N 125.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 17.4N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 19.0N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 20.4N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 22.3N 128.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 192034
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 2023

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO ELEVENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2023
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 121.0W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 121.0 West. Kenneth is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwestward
motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next day or
two. A turn to the northwest or north-northwest is expected on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. A
weakening trend is forecast to begin on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 192034
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023
2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.0W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.0W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 120.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.4N 122.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.9N 124.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.4N 125.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.4N 126.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.0N 127.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.4N 127.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.3N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 121.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 191439
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 19 2023

Persistent showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in
association with the area of low pressure located several hundred
miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. A 19/0535
UTC ASCAT-C pass showed a well-defined circulation. The invest is
upgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression. This intensity is in
agreement with the ASCAT pass and a satellite intensity estimate of
30 kt from TAFB.

The current motion estimate is 295/11. A west-northwestward motion
is expected during the next 36 h as the cyclone is steered by the
trade wind flow. After that time, a potent mid- to upper-level
trough approaching from the northwest is expected to cause
Thirteen-E to turn to the northwest and north-northwest. The track
forecast is in best agreement with the consensus aid TVCE. After the
cyclone loses its convection and becomes a remnant low, a bend back
to the west-northwest is likely in 4 to 5 days.

Warm ocean temperatures, light northeasterly to easterly vertical
wind shear, and a moist low to mid-level troposphere currently
surround the tropical cyclone. The system has perhaps 36 hours to
strengthen while it remains over these relatively favorable
environmental conditions. The cyclone is forecast to cross the 26C
isotherm in about 48 h. The aforementioned approaching mid- to
upper-level trough will induce strong southwesterly vertical wind
shear on the cyclone beginning by 60 h. After that time, much drier
air along with further decreasing ocean temperatures and increasing
wind shear will lead to the cyclone losing its convection and
becoming a remnant low in about 4 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 15.0N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 15.2N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 15.5N 122.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 16.0N 123.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 16.7N 125.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 17.9N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 19.8N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 22.5N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1200Z 24.0N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 191438
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 19 2023

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE EAST PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 119.0W
ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen-E was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 119.0
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph
(20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.
A turn to the northwest or north-northwest is expected on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. A
weakening trend is forecast to begin by Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 191438
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023
1500 UTC TUE SEP 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 119.0W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 119.0W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 118.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.2N 120.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 123.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.7N 125.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.9N 126.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.8N 127.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 24.0N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 119.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/REINHART



>