Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for TWELVE-E-23 Off-shore from 15 Sep 2023 21:00 UTC to 17 Sep 2023 03:00 UTC

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Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for TWELVE-E-23

Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

17/09 01:35 WTPA34PHFO170134

17/09 01:34 WTPA44PHFO170133

17/09 01:34 WTPA24PHFO170134

16/09 20:35 WTPZ42KNHC162033

16/09 14:53 WTPZ42KNHC161451

16/09 14:52 WTPZ32KNHC161450

16/09 14:51 WTPZ22KNHC161450

16/09 08:41 WTPZ42KNHC160839

16/09 08:39 WTPZ32KNHC160838

16/09 08:39 WTPZ22KNHC160838

16/09 02:35 WTPZ42KNHC160234

16/09 02:33 WTPZ32KNHC160232

16/09 02:32 WTPZ22KNHC160231

15/09 20:38 WTPZ32KNHC152037

15/09 20:35 WTPZ42KNHC152033

15/09 20:34 WTPZ22KNHC152032

Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 170134
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Twelve-E Advisory Number 6
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122023
500 PM HST Sat Sep 16 2023

...REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E ENTERS THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 140.7W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1255 MI...2015 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Twelve-E was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 140.7 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue until dissipation.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The remnant low should gradually weaken until dissipation, which is
expected in the next 24 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center on this system unless regeneration occurs.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header
HFOHSFNP and WMO Header FZPN40 PHFO.

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 170133
TCDCP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Twelve-E Discussion Number 6
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122023
500 PM HST Sat Sep 16 2023

No persistent deep convection is associated with the low level
circulation center, with only intermittent deep convection noted in
the lingering convergent bands well to the east. Thus, the system
is being declared as a post tropical remnant low. An ASCAT-C pass
at 1910 UTC indicated an area of 30 kt winds remaining to the north
of the remnant circulation center, in an area devoid of new deep
convection. The depression has succumbed to a combination of
moderately strong shear earlier and, more recently, dry air
intrusion. The remnant low should continue to move generally toward
the west in the low-level trade wind flow until it dissipates.

This is the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information can be found in the
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service in
Honolulu under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP and WMO header FZPN40 PHFO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 13.5N 140.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 17/1200Z 13.2N 142.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 170134
TCMCP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122023
0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 140.7W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 140.7W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 140.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.2N 142.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 140.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOHSFNP...AND WMO
HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 162033
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 16 2023

The structure of the depression has degraded during the last
several hours. The low-level center is now completely exposed and
well removed to the west of a decaying area of deep convection.
The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, but this could be a little
generous.

The system is moving westward at 10 kt. A westward to
west-southwestward motion is expected in the low- to mid-level flow
during the next day or so. The depression, or its remnant low,
is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin this afternoon.

Strong shear and dry air will continue to affect the depression and
should ultimately cause the system to lose the remaining
convection by tonight, as persistently forecast by the GFS and
ECMWF models. Dissipation is likely to occur by 36 hours.

Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories
issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 500 PM
HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4, WMO header WTPA34 PHFO. Products
will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 14.2N 139.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 13.9N 141.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 17/1800Z 13.5N 142.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 161451
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023
500 AM HST Sat Sep 16 2023

The depression has generally changed little overnight and it remains
strongly sheared with deep convection confined to the eastern side
of the circulation. A partial ASCAT-C pass from a few hours ago
showed an area of 30 kt winds to the east of the center, and that is
the basis for the initial intensity.

The system is moving westward at 10 kt. A westward to
west-southwestward motion is expected in the low- to mid-level flow
during the next couple of days. The depression, or its remnant low,
is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin by tonight.

Strong shear and dry air will continue to affect the depression and
should ultimately cause the system to lose much of its deep
convection around the time it crosses into the Central Pacific, as
persistently forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models. Dissipation is
likely to occur in 36 to 48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 14.5N 138.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 14.2N 139.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 13.8N 141.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0000Z 13.3N 143.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 161450
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023
500 AM HST Sat Sep 16 2023

...DEPRESSION NEARING THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...
...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 138.6W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E
was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 138.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
westward to west-southwestward motion is expected during the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected, and the depression is expected to
become a remnant low in a day or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 161450
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122023
1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 138.6W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 138.6W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 138.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.2N 139.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.8N 141.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.3N 143.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 138.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 160839
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023
1100 PM HST Fri Sep 15 2023

The depression is producing short-lived bursts of deep convection
well to the east of its center this evening. Although this cloud
pattern lacks significant convective organization, it's been
sufficiently persistent to continue classifying the system as a
sheared tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt,
consistent with the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB.

Despite marginally warm oceanic surface temperatures along the
depression's track, the cyclone is expected to continue struggling
with intrusions of dry and stable mid-level air from its surrounding
environment due to moderate westerly shear. Subsequently, the
depression is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low within the
next 24 hours or so. This forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite infrared
imagery. The global models indicate that the remnant low will
dissipate by Monday night far southeast of Hawaii, and the official
intensity forecast follows suit.

The depression's initial motion is estimated to be
west-southwestward, or 255/7 kt. This general motion south
of a strengthening low- to mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge should
continue through the depression's dissipation. The NHC forecast
track is nudged closer to the TVCE and HFIP HCCA consensus models
and is a little faster and to the south of the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 14.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 14.3N 138.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 13.9N 140.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/1800Z 13.5N 142.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 160838
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023
1100 PM HST Fri Sep 15 2023

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION LIMPING ACROSS THE WESTERN EAST
PACIFIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 137.5W
ABOUT 1215 MI...1955 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1420 MI...2285 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twelve-E was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 137.5 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple
of days until dissipation.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low
during the next 24 hours, and dissipate on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 160838
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122023
0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 137.5W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 137.5W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 137.1W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.3N 138.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.9N 140.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.5N 142.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 137.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 160234
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
500 PM HST Fri Sep 15 2023

Tropical Depression 12E has a fully exposed low level center. Deep
convection is displaced about 60 nm to the east, in the face of 15
to 20 kt of westerly shear as analyzed by the UW-CIMSS shear
analysis. A blend of the satellite-based intensity estimates
suggests maintaining a 25 kt intensity for this advisory.

The low level center has been moving rather erratically today as it
decouples from the deep convection. A longer term initial motion
estimate is 255/8, but it should be noted this is less certain than
normal due to the wobbles seen today. 12E is expected to continue
moving toward the west-southwest in the low level trade wind flow
well south of a subtropical ridge. The official forecast has been
nudged a bit to the south, in deference to the recent trends in low
level motion after decoupling. Our forecast track is fairly close
to the middle of the guidance envelope for the expected duration of
the system.

Guidance suggests that over the next few days, the subtropical jet
will sag south over the central Pacific, with a gradual increase in
shear over the system. The low level center will be moving over
slightly warmer sea surface temperatures over the next couple of
days, which suggests that an intermittent bursts of deep convection
will be possible, but significant reintensification seems unlikely.
Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF also agree
with this idea. The depression is forecast to become a remnant low
in about 36 hours, leading to dissipation in a couple of days far
southeast of Hawaii.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 14.6N 136.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 14.4N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 14.1N 139.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 13.9N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0000Z 13.7N 142.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 160232
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
500 PM HST Fri Sep 15 2023

...RAGGED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 136.8W
ABOUT 1255 MI...2025 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1460 MI...2350 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E
was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 136.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days
until dissipation.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so,
with dissipation expected in the next couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 160231
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122023
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 136.8W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 136.8W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 136.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.4N 137.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.1N 139.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.9N 141.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.7N 142.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 136.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 152037
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
1100 AM HST Fri Sep 15 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORMS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 136.2W
ABOUT 1285 MI...2065 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1485 MI...2390 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twelve-E was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 136.2 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and
this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected over the next day or so, but
the depression is expected to dissipate as a remnant low within a
couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 152033
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
1100 AM HST Fri Sep 15 2023

The tropical disturbance that we've been watching for a few days
had a burst of vigorous deep convection overnight. Overnight
microwave passes and satellite imagery over the last 24 hours have
shown increased organization at times in the convective banding. The
deep convection now appears to be persistent and organized enough
to classify this system as a tropical depression. A blend of
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CPHC suggest
initiating advisories for this system with an intensity of 25 kt.
More recently, visible satellite imagery is showing the low level
center has emerged from the higher clouds associated with the
convection.

UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates that Tropical Depression 12E is
embedded within the southern periphery of a belt of stronger
westerly shear, associated with the subtropical jet stream to the
north. The depression is not likely to last long, as global models
indicate the subtropical jet will sag south a bit over the next
couple of days, maintaining westerly shear over the system.
Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggests that
occasional pulses of deep convection may continue for a day or so
as the system is steered toward the west-southwest by the trade
wind flow to the south of a strengthening subtropical ridge. The
track forecast most closely follows the TVCN until the system
becomes a remnant low far to the east-southeast of Hawaii.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 15.1N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 15.0N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 14.8N 138.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 14.7N 140.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1800Z 14.5N 141.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 152032
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122023
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 136.2W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 136.2W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 135.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.0N 137.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.8N 138.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.7N 140.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.5N 141.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 136.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

>

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