Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JOVA-23
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 102036
TCDEP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023

Jova has been devoid of deep convection for roughly 12 hours or so.
The overall cloud pattern continues to become disheveled, as the
system gradually spins down. Given that the system has not been
producing convection for some time now, it no longer meets the
definition of a tropical cyclone. Therefore, Jova has degenerated
into a post-tropical remnant low. The initial intensity is lowered
to 30 kt for this advisory, based on a recent scatterometer pass
which is in agreement with the latest subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates.

Jova will continue to spin down for the next couple of days as
it remains a remnant low, before opening up into a trough in about
72 h. No significant changes were made to the official forecast,
which lies near the consensus intensity aids.

Jova's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 5 kt, A
gradual turn toward the west and west-southwest, with an increase in
forward motion is forecast. The NHC forecast lies near the middle
of the guidance envelope, near the model consensus.

This is the last advisory on this system from the National Hurricane
Center. For additional information on the remnant low please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 24.8N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 11/0600Z 25.0N 128.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 11/1800Z 24.8N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0600Z 24.2N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1800Z 23.3N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0600Z 22.3N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 102035
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023

...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE
COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY AS JOVA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 127.8W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova
was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 127.8 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9
km/h). A gradual turn toward the west and west-southwest is expected
over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Jova has become a remnant low and will continue to
gradually spin down.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Jova are affecting the western coast of
Mexico and are occuring along portions of the coast of California.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions through Monday. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 102035
TCMEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023
2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 127.8W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 127.8W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 127.6W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.0N 128.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.8N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.2N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.3N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.3N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 127.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDERAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND
WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER KELLY



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 101600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (JOVA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JOVA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 24.1N 126.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.1N 126.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.6N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.7N 128.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.3N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 23.6N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.7N 133.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.8N 135.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
101600Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 127.0W.
10SEP23. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JOVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 722 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101200Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
102200Z, 110400Z, 111000Z AND 111600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 101441
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023

Limited convection is all that remains with Jova this morning. An
earlier scatterometer pass depicted winds of around 30-35 kt. The
cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate since that time. The
initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this advisory, which is in
good agreement with subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates.

Jova continues to gradually spin down as it traverses cool ocean
temperatures and a stable environment. Jova is expected to
degenerate into a remnant low later tonight. No significant
changes were made to the official forecast, which lies near the
consensus intensity aids.

Jova's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 315/4 kt,
a slightly slower motion as the system continues to weaken and
become steered by the low-level wind pattern. As Jova degenerates
into a remnant low it should turn toward the west and
west-southwest. The NHC forecast track is similar to the
previous advisory, near the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 24.2N 126.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 24.6N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 11/1200Z 24.7N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0000Z 24.3N 129.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1200Z 23.6N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0000Z 22.7N 133.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/1200Z 21.8N 135.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 101441
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jova Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023

...JOVA GENERATING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 126.9W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jova was
located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 126.9 West. Jova is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A gradual turn
toward the west and west-southwest is expected over the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Jova is
expected to become a remnant low by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Jova are affecting the western coast of
Mexico and are occuring along portions of the coast of California.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions through Monday. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 101440
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023
1500 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 126.9W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 126.9W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 126.7W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.6N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.7N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.3N 129.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.6N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.7N 133.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.8N 135.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 126.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 100838
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023

A shrinking area of fragmented convection is all that remains of
Jova's cloud pattern this morning. A 0525 UTC METOP-C scatterometer
pass revealed a couple of 35 kt winds in the northeast quadrant. In
the deference of undersampling, the initial intensity is lowered to
40 kt for this advisory.

A gradual spin down of Jova should continue through the period while
it remains over sub 23 degree Celsius SSTs. Consequently, Jova is
likely to degenerate into a remnant low by early Monday, or or as
soon as this evening, as suggested in the global model simulated
infrared guidance. No significant changes were made to the official
forecast and it's similar to the IVCN multi-model intensity
guidance.

Jova's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward or about
315/7 kt, on the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge
centered over the Baja California peninsula. As Jova degenerates to
a vertically shallow cyclone around the 24 hour period, it should
turn toward the west and west-southwest. The NHC forecast track is
basically an update of the previous advisory and is based on the
various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 24.0N 126.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 24.5N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 24.8N 128.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/1800Z 24.6N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0600Z 24.1N 130.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1800Z 23.2N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0600Z 22.3N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 100838
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jova Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023

...WEAKENING JOVA STILL GENERATING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 126.9W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jova was
located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 126.9 West. Jova is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn
toward the west and west-southwest is expected over the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Jova is
expected to become a remnant low by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Jova are affecting the western coast of
Mexico and are occuring along portions of the coast of California.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 100837
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023
0900 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 126.9W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 126.9W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 126.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.5N 127.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.8N 128.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.6N 129.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.1N 130.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.2N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.3N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 126.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 100241
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 09 2023

Jova is maintaining some deep convection near the center, and some
shallow convective banding features are still evident over the
southeastern quadrant of the circulation. Since the central
convection has still not decreased much, the current intensity is
held at 45 kt for this advisory. This is above the subjective
Dvorak estimates, but in general agreement with objective ADT values
from UW-CIMSS.

The cyclone continues on a northwestward heading with a motion of
about 315/8 kt, on the western periphery of a mid-level high
pressure area. As the system weakens further, it should be steered
more by the low-level trade wind flow, and turn toward the east and
east-southeast. The official track forecast lies roughly in the
middle of the track guidance suite.

It is a bit surprising the the system has been able to maintain
deep convection this evening. Since the storm will remain over
cooler waters of 23 deg C or lower, however, weakening is likely
and the system should degenerate into a remnant low by Monday.
This is similar to the previous NHC intensity forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 23.7N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 24.3N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 24.8N 128.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 24.9N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0000Z 24.6N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1200Z 23.9N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z 23.3N 133.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 100240
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jova Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 09 2023

...JOVA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...
...STILL CAUSING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 126.5W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1695 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jova was
located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 126.5 West. Jova is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h. A gradual turn
toward the west and west-southwest is expected over the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Jova is expected to become a remnant low
by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Jova are affecting the western coast of
Mexico and are occuring along portions of the coast of California.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 100240
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023
0300 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 126.5W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 126.5W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 126.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.3N 127.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.8N 128.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.9N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.6N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.9N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.3N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 126.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 092034
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 09 2023

Jova's convection continues to dissipate this afternoon, with only a
few bursts in the inner core. Microwave imagery from SSMI/S depicts
decreased convective banding and the overall structure of the
system continues to deteriorate as well. A blend of subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates suggest an intensity of 45
kt, which is the initial intensity for this advisory.

Jova is forecast to continue weakening for the next few days as the
system moves over cool sea surface temperatures, and into a stable
air mass. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models
suggest Jova will be devoid of deep convection and become a remnant
low in about 36 hours, and this is reflected in the NHC intensity
forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 8 kt. Jova
should continue to move generally toward the northwest around the
edge of a subtropical ridge during the next day or so. As Jova
weakens, the system is forecast to turn westward to
west-southwestward within the low-level flow through the end of the
forecast period. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
forecast track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 22.9N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 23.6N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 24.3N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 24.6N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1800Z 24.4N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0600Z 24.0N 130.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1800Z 23.1N 133.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 092033
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jova Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 09 2023

...JOVA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND
MEXICO ARE OCCURING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 126.1W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jova was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 126.1 West. Jova is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward
motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected for the next
day or so. Jova is forecast to slow down further and turn toward the
west-southwest by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is likely, and Jova is expected
to become a remnant low by late Sunday or early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Jova are affecting the western coast of
Mexico and are occuring along portions of the coast of California.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 092032
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023
2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 126.1W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 126.1W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 125.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.6N 127.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.3N 127.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.6N 128.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.4N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.0N 130.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.1N 133.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 126.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 091447
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 09 2023

Jova continues to deteriorate in latest satellite imagery. Dry air
continues to work into this system, with deep convection starting
to dissipate. Broken convective banding around the system is
deteriorating with warming cloud tops in infrared satellite imagery
A blend of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates
suggest an intensity of 55 kt, which is the initial intensity for
this advisory.

Jova is forecast to continue weakening during the next several days
as the system moves over cool sea surface temperatures, and into a
more stable airmass. Simulated satellite from the GFS and ECMWF
suggest Jova will be devoid of deep convection and become a remnant
low in about 48 hours, this is reflected in the NHC intensity
forecast. However, the transition to a remnant low could occur
sooner than forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 9 kt. Jova
should continue to move generally toward the northwest around the
edge of a subtropical ridge located over the southwestern United
States. As Jova weakens, the system is forecast to turn westward to
west-southwestward into the low-level flow through the end of the
forecast period. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
forecast track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 22.3N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 23.3N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 24.2N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 24.7N 128.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 24.8N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0000Z 24.4N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z 23.8N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 091447
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jova Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 09 2023

...TROPICAL STORM JOVA SLIGHTLY WEAKER...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND
MEXICO ARE OCCURING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 125.5W
ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jova was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 125.5 West. Jova is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a slightly slower
forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. Jova is
forecast to slow down further and turn toward the west-southwest by
late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is likely, and Jova is
expected to become a remnant low late this weekend or early next
week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Jova are affecting the western coast of
Mexico and are occuring along portions of the coast of California.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 091446
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023
1500 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 125.5W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 125.5W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 125.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.3N 126.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.2N 127.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.7N 128.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.8N 129.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.4N 130.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.8N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 125.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 090839
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
200 AM PDT Sat Sep 09 2023

This morning's satellite presentation consists of a deteriorating
cloud pattern with what remains of the deep convection confined to
the western half of the cyclone. A blend of the subjective and
objective intensity estimates yield an initial intensity of 60 kt
for this advisory.

Jova is forecast to spin down slowly during the next few days,
while traversing decreasing oceanic surface temperatures and moving
into a high, statically stable surrounding environment. Most models
indicate that Jova will lose its deep convection and become a
remnant low in 60 hours, which is shown in the NHC intensity
forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, 300/11 kt.
The NHC forecast track philosophy remains unchanged. Jova should
continue to move generally toward that northwest within the
southeasterly mid-tropospheric flow produced by subtropical high
pressure that stretches from the southwestern U.S. across most of
the eastern Pacific. As Jova sheds its associated deep convection
and degenerates to a vertically shallow cyclone, Jova is expected to
decrease in forward speed and turn toward the west, and
west-southwest within the easterly tradewind flow through
dissipation.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 21.5N 124.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 22.3N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 23.4N 126.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 24.3N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 24.6N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 24.3N 129.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z 23.9N 130.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0600Z 22.7N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 090839
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jova Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
200 AM PDT Sat Sep 09 2023

...TROPICAL STORM JOVA SLOWLY SPINNING DOWN...
...DANGEROUS COASTAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTS OF
CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO ARE OCCURING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 124.6W
ABOUT 945 MI...1520 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jova was
located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 124.6 West. Jova is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a slightly slower
speed is expected for the next couple of days. Jova is forecast to
slow down further and turn toward the west by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is likely, and Jova is
expected to become a remnant low early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Jova are affecting the western coast of
Mexico and are occuring along portions of the coast of California.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 090838
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023
0900 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 124.6W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 180SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 124.6W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 124.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.3N 125.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.4N 126.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.3N 127.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.6N 128.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.3N 129.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.9N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 22.7N 133.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 124.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 090245
TCDEP1

Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
800 PM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023

Jova's steady decline has continued as the hurricane moves over
cooler waters. Cloud tops have warmed, and the last hints of an eye
have disappeared in all geostationary imagery. A blend of subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates supported an intensity
of 70 kt at 00 UTC. The 65 kt advisory intensity assumes a little
futher weakening has happened since then. Additional weakening will
continue during the next few days, primarily due to the cool waters
beneath Jova and a drying environment. Most models indicate that
Jova will lose its deep convection and become a remnant low near or
just after 60 h, which is reflected in the NHC intensity forecast.

The track forecast remains straightforward. For the next 2 days or
so, Jova will continue moving generally northwestward, steered by a
deep ridge that extends from the southwestern U.S. across the
eastern 2/3 of the basin. As Jova loses its deep convection, it
should slow down and turn westward, and then west-southwestward
within low-level flow. Model guidance, both for track and intensity,
is in very good agreement on Jova's evolution during the next few
days and confidence in the forecast is high. No significant changes
to the NHC forecast were required for this advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 21.1N 123.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 22.0N 125.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 23.3N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 24.3N 127.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 24.8N 128.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 24.8N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 24.5N 130.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z 23.5N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 090245
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jova Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
800 PM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023

...JOVA WEAKENS BUT STILL A HURRICANE...
...PRODUCING DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTS OF
CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 123.7W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jova was located
near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 123.7 West. Jova is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a slightly slower
speed is expected for the next couple of days. Jova is forecast to
slow down further and turn westward by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is likely. Jova is forecast
to become a remnant low early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Jova are affecting the western coast of
Mexico and are expected to reach portions of the coast of California
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 090244
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023
0300 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 123.7W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 123.7W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 123.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.0N 125.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.3N 126.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.3N 127.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.8N 128.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.8N 129.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.5N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 23.5N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 123.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 082035
TCDEP1

Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023

Jova continues to weaken as it encounters cooler sea surface
temperatures. The overall satellite depiction of Jova is that of a
weakening tropical system, encountering a more stable environment.
A SSMIS microwave pass that came in just after the previous
advisory, shows that banding around Jova is thinning, and the inner
core is collapsing as dry air wraps into the system. Cloud tops
within the convection have been warming throughout the day as well.
Subjective and objective satellite estimates have continued to
decrease throughout the day. The initial intensity has been set to
75 kt, which represents a blend of the data-T and current intensity
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Environmental conditions along the forecast track are becoming less
favorable, as the hurricane is moving over cool sea surface
temperatures and into a more stable airmass. The latest NHC forecast
continues to show steady weakening and is similar to the previous
advisory. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite show the system
becoming devoid of convection in about 3 days, and Jova is forecast
to become a post-tropical remnant low at that time.

Jova is moving to the west-northwest at 13 kt. This general motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue for the
next couple of days while the cyclone rounds the end of a ridge
centered over the southwestern United States. As Jova weakens, the
system is forecast to turn westward to west-southwestward into the
low-level flow towards the end of the forecast period. The NHC track
forecast is close to the previous advisory, just slightly slower
and lies near the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 20.4N 122.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 21.3N 124.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 22.6N 125.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 23.8N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 24.6N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 24.9N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 24.6N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z 24.1N 132.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 082035
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jova Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023

...JOVA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 122.4W
ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jova was located
near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 122.4 West. Jova is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the
next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next several
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Jova are expected to reach portions of
the coast of California later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the
weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 082034
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023
2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 122.4W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 420SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 122.4W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 121.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.3N 124.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.6N 125.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.8N 127.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.6N 128.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.9N 128.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.6N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 24.1N 132.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 122.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 081454
TCDEP1

Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
800 AM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023


Jova continues to weaken as it moves over cooler waters. An earlier
microwave SSMIS pass showed that the inner core of Jova continues to
erode with a secondary eyewall becoming the primary feature. GOES-18
Hi-res 1-minute satellite imagery depicts dry slots continue to work
their way into the inner core of the system. The drier air has also
started to cause breaks in some of the banding features around Jova.
As a result, subjective and objective satellite estimates have been
quickly decreasing. The initial intensity has been set to 85 kt,
which represents a blend of the data-T and current intensity Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The hurricane is crossing a sharp sea surface temperature gradient
into much cooler waters. Environmental conditions also become less
favorable over the next few days. The latest NHC forecast continues
to show rapid to steady weakening and is similar to the previous
advisory. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite show the system
becoming devoid of convection in about 3 days, and Jova is now
forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low at that time.

Jova is moving to the west-northwest at 14 kt. This general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days while the
cyclone rounds the end of a ridge centered over the southwestern
United States. As Jova weakens, the system is forecast to turn
westward to west-southwestward into the low-level flow towards the
end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is very close to
the previous advisory, and lies near the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 19.8N 121.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 20.7N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 22.0N 125.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 23.3N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 24.3N 127.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 25.1N 128.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 25.3N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z 24.8N 131.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z 24.1N 133.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 081453
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jova Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
800 AM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023

...JOVA WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 121.2W
ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jova was located
near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 121.2 West. Jova is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the
next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next several
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 081452
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023
1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 121.2W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 450SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 121.2W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 120.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.7N 123.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.0N 125.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.3N 126.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.3N 127.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.1N 128.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.3N 129.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 24.8N 131.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 24.1N 133.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 121.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 080842
TCDEP1

Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023

Jova is continuing its weakening trend. A microwave pass from
around 0300 UTC still showed the remnants of a decaying eyewall
surrounded by a larger secondary eyewall. Recent geostationary
satellite imagery show dry slots working their way towards the inner
core and warming cloud top temperatures. As a result, subjective
and objective satellite estimates have been quickly decreasing. The
initial intensity has been set to 95 kt, which represents a blend
of the data-T and current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB.

The hurricane is crossing over the 26 degree C isotherm and headed
towards even cooler ocean waters. Environmental conditions are also
expected to become increasingly hostile during the next few days.
The latest NHC forecast continues to show rapid to steady weakening
and is similar to the previous advisory, though has been adjusted
lower due to the decreased initial intensity. Jova will likely be a
remnant low by day 4, but this transition could occur sooner.

Jova is moving to the west-northwest at 14 kt. This general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days while Jova is
steered by a ridge centered over the southwestern United States. As
convection collapses, the weaker vortex is forecast to turn westward
to west-southwestward in the trade winds by the end of the forecast
period. The official track prediction has been shifted slightly
northward of the previous advisory and is a little slower at day 3
and beyond, keeping it close to the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 19.1N 119.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 20.0N 121.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 21.1N 123.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 22.5N 125.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 23.7N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 24.6N 127.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 25.0N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 25.0N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0600Z 24.6N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 080839
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jova Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023

...JOVA CROSSING OVER COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 119.7W
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jova was located
near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 119.7 West. Jova is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the
next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next several
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 080838
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023
0900 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 119.7W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 420SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 119.7W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 119.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.0N 121.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.1N 123.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.5N 125.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.7N 127.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.6N 127.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.0N 128.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 25.0N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 24.6N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 119.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 080412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 08.09.2023

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 28.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2023 0 16.1N 28.8W 1009 28
1200UTC 08.09.2023 12 17.3N 32.3W 1010 31
0000UTC 09.09.2023 24 18.0N 35.4W 1010 30
1200UTC 09.09.2023 36 19.1N 38.4W 1009 30
0000UTC 10.09.2023 48 20.3N 40.3W 1009 28
1200UTC 10.09.2023 60 20.8N 42.2W 1008 32
0000UTC 11.09.2023 72 21.8N 42.7W 1008 32
1200UTC 11.09.2023 84 22.5N 43.1W 1006 31
0000UTC 12.09.2023 96 23.4N 42.4W 1005 32
1200UTC 12.09.2023 108 25.5N 42.4W 1002 34
0000UTC 13.09.2023 120 27.3N 41.2W 1001 36
1200UTC 13.09.2023 132 28.9N 40.7W 1000 41
0000UTC 14.09.2023 144 31.2N 40.1W 1000 39
1200UTC 14.09.2023 156 33.0N 41.2W 999 45
0000UTC 15.09.2023 168 33.4N 42.5W 993 52

HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 51.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2023 0 17.1N 51.8W 941 110
1200UTC 08.09.2023 12 17.9N 53.9W 967 77
0000UTC 09.09.2023 24 19.2N 55.7W 969 81
1200UTC 09.09.2023 36 20.0N 57.7W 973 68
0000UTC 10.09.2023 48 20.8N 59.2W 970 65
1200UTC 10.09.2023 60 21.5N 60.8W 965 68
0000UTC 11.09.2023 72 22.3N 62.2W 961 74
1200UTC 11.09.2023 84 23.0N 64.0W 958 78
0000UTC 12.09.2023 96 23.6N 65.6W 952 84
1200UTC 12.09.2023 108 24.1N 67.3W 950 87
0000UTC 13.09.2023 120 24.3N 68.5W 944 87
1200UTC 13.09.2023 132 24.8N 69.5W 949 83
0000UTC 14.09.2023 144 25.9N 69.9W 944 94
1200UTC 14.09.2023 156 27.8N 70.3W 947 84
0000UTC 15.09.2023 168 29.7N 70.1W 944 75

HURRICANE JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 118.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2023 0 18.1N 118.1W 939 86
1200UTC 08.09.2023 12 19.2N 121.1W 958 66
0000UTC 09.09.2023 24 20.5N 123.5W 975 53
1200UTC 09.09.2023 36 22.0N 125.6W 987 43
0000UTC 10.09.2023 48 23.4N 127.0W 995 39
1200UTC 10.09.2023 60 24.7N 127.7W 1001 33
0000UTC 11.09.2023 72 25.4N 128.4W 1006 25
1200UTC 11.09.2023 84 25.3N 129.2W 1010 23
0000UTC 12.09.2023 96 24.8N 129.7W 1011 25
1200UTC 12.09.2023 108 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.2N 19.3E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2023 0 34.2N 19.3E 1005 34
1200UTC 08.09.2023 12 34.2N 17.8E 1004 34
0000UTC 09.09.2023 24 33.6N 16.9E 1004 36
1200UTC 09.09.2023 36 32.7N 17.3E 1003 37
0000UTC 10.09.2023 48 31.3N 19.2E 1004 31
1200UTC 10.09.2023 60 30.0N 21.1E 1004 30
0000UTC 11.09.2023 72 29.2N 23.7E 1004 27
1200UTC 11.09.2023 84 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080411

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 080250
TCDEP1

Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 07 2023

The satellite presentation of Jova has changed drastically since
yesterday evening. Earlier 21 UTC AMSR2 microwave data showed a
large moat surrounding the very small inner core of the hurricane,
with a ragged secondary outer eyewall and fragmented curved bands of
convection well to the east and southeast of the center. The eye of
the hurricane has become cloud filled, and a convective asymmetry
has developed that is likely a product of some northeasterly shear
affecting Jova. All indications are that Jova is weakening, which is
consistent with the latest satellite intensity estimates. Based on a
blend of the latest data-T and current intensity Dvorak estimates
from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is lowered to 110 kt,
which also agrees well with recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimates.

Continued weakening is expected over the next several days. Jova
will cross a significant SST gradient and move over progressively
cooler waters during the next several days while the hurricane gains
latitude. This track will also bring Jova into a drier and more
stable environment, making it increasingly difficult for the cyclone
to maintain its convective structure. This forecast update shows a
faster rate of weakening that is supported by the latest intensity
guidance. The global models agree that Jova is likely to be devoid
of organized convection by early next week, and the NHC forecast
shows post-tropical status in 96 h.

The eye of Jova has wobbled some during the past several hours, but
the longer-term motion remains west-northwestward (295/15 kt). The
hurricane is forecast to continue in this general direction for the
next couple of days while moving around the southwestern periphery
of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. A
brief turn to the northwest is shown between 48-72 h as the ridge
becomes reoriented to the east of Jova. By days 4 and 5, the shallow
cyclone should slowly turn westward within the low-level flow. The
latest NHC track forecast is slower than the previous one at 72 h
and beyond, bringing it into better agreement with the HCCA and TVCN
aids. Otherwise, no notable changes were made with this advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 18.3N 118.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 19.1N 120.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 20.3N 123.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 21.6N 125.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 23.0N 126.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 24.0N 127.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 24.6N 128.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 24.8N 130.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 13/0000Z 24.5N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 080249
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jova Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 07 2023

...JOVA STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER OPEN WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 118.6W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jova was located
near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 118.6 West. Jova is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the
next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jova is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued weakening is forecast during the
next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 080249
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023
0300 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 118.6W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 420SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 118.6W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 117.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.1N 120.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.3N 123.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.6N 125.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.0N 126.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.0N 127.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.6N 128.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.8N 130.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 24.5N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 118.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 072038
TCDEP1

Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 07 2023

Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows Jova is gradually
weakening. The eye has been cloud-filled for much of the day, with
dry air trying to wrap into the southern and eastern side of the
system. SSMIS microwave imagery depicts the earlier thick concentric
eyewall is starting to thin, with the inner core becoming less
pronounced. Infrared imagery shows this as well with the infrared
cloud tops warming throughout the day as well. Subjective satellite
estimates were lower this advisory, with Dvorak final-T numbers of
6.0 and CI numbers of 7.0 from both TAFB and SAB. Given the
structural changes depicted in microwave and visible imagery, the
initial intensity for this advisory is lowered to 125 kt, which
falls between the latest Dvorak estimates.

Jova may continue to experience some short-term intensity
fluctuations as it undergoes structural changes and moves into a
less favorable environment. In about 24 h, Jova will cross a sharp
sea surface temperature gradient into cooler waters, while it moves
into a drier, more stable airmass. This will induce a steady
weakening trend over the next few days. By the end of the forecast
period, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models
suggests the cyclone will be devoid of convection, and the official
forecast shows Jova becoming a post-tropical remnant low by 96 h.

The hurricane continues to move west-northwestward at 15 kt around a
mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. Jova should generally
follow this motion for the next several days. As the system weakens
and becomes a shallow vortex, a turn toward the west and southwest
within the low-level flow is anticipated. The guidance envelope
remains in good agreement, and the track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 17.7N 117.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 18.6N 119.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 19.8N 122.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 21.0N 124.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 22.4N 126.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 23.6N 127.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 24.5N 129.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 25.0N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z 24.2N 133.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 072036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jova Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 07 2023

...MAJOR HURRICANE JOVA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 117.3W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jova was located
near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 117.3 West. Jova is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jova is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast to begin later tonight
and continue through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 941 mb (27.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 071600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JOVA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JOVA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 16.8N 115.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 115.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 18.0N 117.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 19.3N 120.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 20.5N 123.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 21.8N 125.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 23.1N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.2N 128.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 25.4N 130.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.3N 133.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
071600Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 115.9W.
07SEP23. HURRICANE 11E (JOVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 961 NM SOUTH
OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071200Z IS 932 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072200Z,
080400Z, 081000Z AND 081600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 071455
TCDEP1

Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 07 2023

Infrared satellite imagery shows that cloud tops have warmed in the
eyewall of Jova. An earlier SSMIS microwave passed depicts that Jova
is starting to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle, with an outer
concentric ring developing, and the inner core starting to collapse.
In the past hour or so, hi-res GOES-18 1-minute imagery shows that
the eye has become cloud filled, further confirming the microwave
pass from earlier that Jova is undergoing an eyewall replacement
cycle. The subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have decreased
slightly with this advisory between 130-140 kt. Given the current
eyewall replacement cycle and warming cloud tops, the initial
intensity for this advisory is 135 kt.

With the beginning stages of an eyewall replacement cycle, Jova
may experience some short-term intensity fluctuations. The NHC
forecast predicts slow weakening while Jova undergoes these changes.
By the time the eyewall replacement is complete, Jova will
start to cross a sharp sea surface temperature gradient into
cooler waters, and into a drier, more stable airmass. By the end of
the forecast period, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS model
suggests the cyclone will be devoid of convection, and the official
forecast shows Jova to be a post-tropical remnant low by day 5.

The hurricane continues to move west-northwestward at 14 kt around
the edge of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The
ridge is expected to be the dominate steering feature during the
next few days and Jova should maintain the same general motion until
the end of the forecast period. At that point the weakening,
shallow vortex should turn westward in the low-level flow. The NHC
track forecast has been shifted slightly to the north between the
HCCA and TVCN consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 17.1N 115.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 18.0N 117.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 19.3N 120.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 20.5N 123.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 21.8N 125.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 23.1N 127.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 24.2N 128.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 25.4N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 25.3N 133.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Camposano


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 071452
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jova Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 07 2023

...POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE JOVA CONTINUES TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 115.7W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jova was located
near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 115.7 West. Jova is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jova is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
today. Weakening is forecast to begin later tonight and continue
through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 932 mb (27.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Camposano


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 071451
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023
1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 115.7W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 390SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 115.7W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 115.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.0N 117.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.3N 120.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.5N 123.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.8N 125.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.1N 127.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.2N 128.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 25.4N 130.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 25.3N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 115.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/CAMPOSANO

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 070837
TCDEP1

Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
300 AM MDT Thu Sep 07 2023

Jova appears to have halted its rather impressive intensification.
The central dense overcast has become more asymmetric, with deep
bursts of convection developing to the south of the circulation,
and the cloud top temperatures have generally warmed. The initial
intensity is held at 140 kt to represent a blend of the subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates that range between
134-155 kt.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain conducive for some
additional strengthening. However, structural changes such as the
eyewall replacement cycles discussed in the previous advisory, may
cause some short-term intensity fluctuations. The NHC prediction
still allows for some strengthening within 12 h before beginning a
rapid weakening trend as the hurricane moves over increasingly
cooler ocean waters and into a dry and stable airmass. By the end of
forecast period, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS model
suggests the cyclone will be devoid of convection, and official
forecast shows Jova to be a post-tropical remnant low by day 5.

The hurricane continues to move west-northwestward at 14 kt around
the edge of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The
ridge is expected to be the dominate steering feature during the
next few days and Jova should maintain the same general motion until
the end of the forecast period. At that point the weakening,
shallow vortex should turn westward in the low-level flow. The NHC
track forecast has been shifted to the north slightly and is a bit
slower than the previous prediction, still between the HCCA and TVCN
consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 16.4N 114.4W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 17.3N 116.4W 150 KT 175 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 18.5N 119.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 19.7N 121.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 20.9N 124.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 22.2N 126.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 23.4N 128.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 25.0N 130.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 25.5N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 070834
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jova Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
300 AM MDT Thu Sep 07 2023

...CATEGORY FIVE JOVA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 114.4W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jova was located
near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 114.4 West. Jova is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jova is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
today. Weakening is forecast to begin later tonight and continue
through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 929 mb (27.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 070833
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023
0900 UTC THU SEP 07 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 114.4W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 929 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 390SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 114.4W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 113.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.3N 116.4W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.5N 119.1W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.7N 121.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.9N 124.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.2N 126.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.4N 128.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 25.0N 130.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 25.5N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 114.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 070245
TCDEP1

Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023

The remarkable rapid intensification (RI) of Jova has continued this
evening. The hurricane's very warm, 10 n-mi-wide eye is surrounded
by a symmetric central dense overcast of convective cloud tops
colder than -75 deg C. Recent SSMIS microwave images suggest an
eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) is underway, with signs of a
formative secondary eyewall noted in 89-GHz imagery. The GOES
Geostationary Lightning Mapper has also shown an increase in inner
core lightning activity during the past several hours. Based on
Dvorak data-T numbers of 7.0 from SAB and TAFB at 00 UTC and rapidly
climbing objective intensity estimates, the initial intensity of
Jova is raised to 140 kt. This makes Jova a category 5 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and signifies an 80-kt
intensity increase over the past 24 h.

The onset of an ERC and the recent lightning activity suggest that
the hurricane could be nearing its peak intensity. Structural
changes related to the ERC could cause some near-term intensity
fluctuations, but the NHC forecast still allows for a bit more
strengthening overnight given Jova's striking satellite presentation
and the conducive oceanic and atmospheric conditions along its path.
The hurricane is forecast to reach the 26C isotherm in 36-48 h,
after which time a faster rate of weakening is forecast while Jova
moves over cooler waters and into a drier mid-level environment.
Regardless, Jova is likely to remain a powerful hurricane for the
next few days. This forecast shows Jova keeping its tropical cyclone
status through day 5, although the global models suggest it could be
mostly devoid of convection and nearly post-tropical by the end of
the forecast period.

A mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico is steering Jova to
the west-northwest (300/13 kt). With the ridge entrenched to its
north, the hurricane is expected to continue on a west-northwestward
heading for the next several days, as depicted by the well-clustered
track guidance. The updated NHC forecast lies very close to the
previous prediction, but once again has been adjusted slightly
faster based on the latest TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. As the
cyclone gradually spins down and weakens over cooler waters, the
shallow vortex is forecast to turn more westward at days 4 and 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 15.7N 113.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 16.4N 115.1W 150 KT 175 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 17.6N 117.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 18.7N 120.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 20.0N 123.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 21.4N 125.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 22.8N 127.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 24.6N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 25.5N 134.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 070244
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jova Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023

...JOVA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 113.0W
ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jova was located
near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 113.0 West. Jova is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jova is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
through Thursday. Weakening is forecast to begin later on Thursday
and continue through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 929 mb (27.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 070244
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023
0300 UTC THU SEP 07 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 113.0W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 929 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 113.0W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 112.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.4N 115.1W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.6N 117.8W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.7N 120.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.0N 123.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.4N 125.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.8N 127.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 24.6N 130.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 25.5N 134.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 113.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 062038
TCDEP1

Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
300 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023

Jova continues to rapidly intensify this afternoon. High-resolution
1-minute GOES visible and infrared imagery depicts a strengthening
major hurricane with a pinhole eye surrounded by very deep
convection. As expected with a small eye forming, satellite
intensity estimates have increased this afternoon to T6.0 from TAFB.
Given the deep convection and small pinhole eye, the initial
intensity for this advisory is set to 115 kt. Jova continues to
rapidly intensify, with a 60-kt increase over the past 24 hours.

Environmental conditions continue to be conducive for rapid
intensification (RI), with low vertical wind shear and warm sea
surface temperatures along the forecast track. Statistical models,
DTOPS and SHIPS, continue to show high probabilities above the
climatological mean for RI to continue during the next 12 to 24
hours. Therefore, following these statistical models and RI
probabilities, the peak intensity forecast has been raised to 135
kt. After that time, hard-to-predict eyewall replacement cycles
could cause some fluctuations in intensity. The intensity forecast
lies above the consensus aids in the short term, given the favorable
environmental conditions. In about 2 to 3 days, Jova is forecast to
cross over much cooler SSTs and encounter some drier mid-level air,
which should induce weakening.

Jova is moving a little bit faster with an initial motion of
west-northwestward at 13 kt. Jova is moving along the southern
periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The
hurricane is expected to continue moving west-northwestward as it
rounds the southwestern edge of the high through the forecast
period. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous advisory, except for a slightly faster forward speed. The
forecast lies between the faster HCCA, and the TVCE consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 14.9N 111.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 15.6N 113.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 16.7N 116.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 17.8N 118.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 19.0N 121.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 20.3N 124.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 21.7N 126.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 24.0N 129.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 25.4N 133.4W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 062037
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jova Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
300 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023

...JOVA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 111.7W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jova was located
near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 111.7 West. Jova is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through late this week.

Maximum sustained winds have rapidly increased to near 130 mph (215
km/h) with higher gusts. Jova is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Jova is expected to continue
strengthening rapidly during the 12 to 24 hours. In a couple of
days, Jova is forecast to start weakening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 062036
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023
2100 UTC WED SEP 06 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 111.7W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 330SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 111.7W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 111.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.6N 113.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.7N 116.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.8N 118.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.0N 121.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.3N 124.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.7N 126.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 24.0N 129.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 25.4N 133.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 111.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 061443
TCDEP1

Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023

Jova continues to rapidly intensify this morning. Infrared
satellite imagery shows deep convection, with very cold cloud tops
over the central core of the system. A SSMIS microwave pass at
1129Z revealed a well-defined core with a closed mid-level eye,
and a low-level eye vertically aligned with the mid-level center.
Hi-resolution 1-minute GOES visible imagery is also showing signs
of an eye. A blend of the Dvorak subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMMS are between 85
to 90 kt. Given the structure depicted on microwave imagery, will
lean towards the higher end of these estimates with the initial
intensity for this advisory set to 90 kt.

Environmental conditions continue to be conducive for rapid
intensification, with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface
temperatures along the forecast track. Statistical models continue
to show extremely high probabilities of further rapid
intensification. DTOPS and SHIPS guidance are both extremely high
and well above the climatological mean during the next 12 to 24
hours. The peak intensity has been raised to 125 kt in about 36 h.
Given the conducive environment, the NHC intensity forecast
continues to favor the stronger model guidance with continued rapid
intensification. The intensity forecast lies above the consensus
aids and regional hurricane models. In about 3 days, Jova is
forecast to cross over much cooler SSTs and encounter some drier
mid-level air, which should induce weakening.

Jova is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt. The track forecast is
fairly straightforward. Jova is moving along the southern
periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The
hurricane is expected to continue moving west-northwestward as it
rounds the southwestern edge of the high through the forecast
period. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous advisory, except for a slightly faster forward speed.
The updated forecast track lies near the corrected consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 14.2N 110.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 14.9N 112.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 15.7N 115.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 16.8N 117.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 18.0N 120.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 19.2N 123.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 20.5N 125.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 22.9N 129.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 24.9N 133.1W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 061443
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jova Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023

...JOVA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 110.6W
ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jova was located
near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 110.6 West. Jova is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through late this week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Jova is expected to continue strengthening
rapidly during the next day or so. Jova is likely to become a major
hurricane by tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 061442
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023
1500 UTC WED SEP 06 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 110.6W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 80SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 110.6W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 110.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.9N 112.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.7N 115.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.8N 117.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.0N 120.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.2N 123.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.5N 125.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 22.9N 129.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.9N 133.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 110.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 060839
TCDEP1

Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
300 AM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023

Jova continues to rapidly intensify. Infrared satellite imagery
shows that deep convection, with cloud tops colder than -90 degrees
C, has persisted over the estimated center overnight. Earlier
microwave imagery revealed a partial low- and mid-level eye-like
feature, still open to the north. Subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates have risen since the last advisory and
the initial intensity is increased to 75 kt, in agreement with
the estimates from TAFB (T4.5/77 kt) and UW-CIMSS ADT (74 kt).

Environmental conditions seem to be quite conducive for
intensification and global model guidance suggests these conditions
will continue for the next couple of days. Deep-layer vertical wind
shear is expected to remain below 10 kt and sea surface temperatures
range between 28-29 degrees C along the forecast track. Statistical
models show extremely high probabilities of continued rapid
intensification and the official forecast explicitly predicts such
strengthening. The latest prediction now peaks Jova at 120 kt in 48
h. Cooling ocean waters and a dry, stable atmosphere should induce
a weakening trend by day 3, which is expected to continue through
the end of the forecast period.

Jova is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt. There have been no
changes to the track forecast reasoning. Jova is moving along the
southern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over northern
Mexico. The hurricane is expected to maintain this motion with an
increase in forward speed as it rounds the southwestern edge of
the high. The latest NHC track forecast is quite similar to the
previous prediction, except for a slightly faster forward speed
favoring the corrected consensus aid, HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 13.6N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 14.3N 111.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 15.2N 113.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 16.2N 116.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 17.4N 118.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 18.6N 121.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 19.9N 123.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 22.4N 128.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 24.4N 131.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 060839
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jova Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
300 AM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023

...JOVA BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 109.6W
ABOUT 640 MI...1035 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jova was located
near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 109.6 West. Jova is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
through late this week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Jova has rapidly intensified over the past 24
hours and is expected to continue strengthening rapidly during the
next day or two. Jova is likely to become a major hurricane
intensity by Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 060839
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023
0900 UTC WED SEP 06 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 109.6W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 70SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 109.6W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 109.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.3N 111.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 5SW 5NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.2N 113.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.2N 116.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 190SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.4N 118.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.6N 121.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.9N 123.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 22.4N 128.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 24.4N 131.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 109.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 060237
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
900 PM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023

A new burst of deep convection has produced a nearly circular
Central Dense Overcast over Jova's center, although a 0045 UTC
SSMIS microwave pass showed that the convection favors the
southwestern portion of the circulation due to moderate
northeasterly shear. Still, Dvorak estimates have increased to
T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB, and the various
objective estimates have recently converged around 60 kt, which
will be the initial intensity. Jova's intensity has increased by
30 kt over the past 24 hours, and thus rapid intensification is
ongoing.

Jova is situated to the south of a mid-tropospheric ridge stretching
southwest of Mexico, and it continues to move toward the
west-northwest (290 degrees) at 8 kt. The track forecast, and the
forecast track, are both straightforward. Jova is expected to
maintain a west-northwestward motion around the southwestern
periphery of the ridge, but at a faster forward speed as the
distance between the two features decreases. No appreciable changes
were made from the previous NHC forecast except to show a slightly
faster motion, hedging toward the latest HCCA consensus solution.

The moderate shear over Jova is expected to abate during the next
6-12 hours. In addition, water temperatures are between 29-30
degrees Celsius, mid-level relative humidities are near 80 percent,
and upper-level divergence is forecast to be strong during the next
day or two. All of these ingredients point to a recipe for
continued rapid intensification, and many of the SHIPS-RII and DTOPS
thresholds suggest it is likely to persist for another 36 to 48
hours, with Jova reaching major hurricane strength. That said, the
regional hurricane models are much less enthusiastic about Jova's
continued strengthening and show peak intensities no more than 70-75
kt. Given the seemingly conducive environment, the NHC intensity
forecast continues to favor the stronger solutions, and peaks Jova
at category 4 intensity in 48 hours. Colder waters should induce
weakening by day 3, continuing through the end of the forecast
period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 13.2N 108.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 13.9N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 14.8N 112.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 15.6N 115.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 16.8N 117.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 18.1N 120.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 19.4N 122.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 22.1N 127.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 24.2N 131.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 060236
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jova Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
900 PM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023

...JOVA IN THE MIDST OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND ALMOST A
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 108.6W
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jova was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 108.6 West. Jova is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
through late this week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Jova has rapidly intensified over the past 24
hours and is expected to continue strengthening rapidly during the
next day or two. Jova is likely to become a hurricane overnight
and then strengthen to major hurricane intensity by Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 060236
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023
0300 UTC WED SEP 06 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 108.6W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 108.6W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 108.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.9N 110.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 5NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.8N 112.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.6N 115.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 190SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.8N 117.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.1N 120.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.4N 122.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.1N 127.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 24.2N 131.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 108.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 052049
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023

Jova continues to look better organized on visible and infrared
satellite imagery, with sharp curved banding on the south side of
the system wrapping into the center. Deep convection has continued
over the center with cold cloud tops near -80C. ASCAT and GMI
microwave instruments both sampled Jova this afternoon, and
indicated that the low-level center has redeveloped farther south
than indicated in the previous advisory, under the burst of deep
convection. The GMI 89-GHz microwave imagery depicted a mid-level
eye-wall feature starting to develop. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB were at T3.5 and T3.0, respectively, with this advisory, and
objective ADT estimates were around 50 kt. Given the mid-level
feature depicted on microwave imagery and the improved structure,
the initial intensity leans toward the higher satellite estimates at
55kt.

The initial motion is a little uncertain given the relocation of the
low-level center, but an average motion is west-northwestward around
8 kt. Jova is forecast to continue on a general west-northwest
motion the next several days along the southern side of a ridge
extending westward over the southwestern United States. The track
guidance is in fairly good agreement, with the main differences
being on the forward speed of Jova in the short term. The NHC
forecast is shifted slightly south of the previous one, given the
re-formation of the center southward, and lies near the consensus
aids.

Jova is in a favorable environment to rapidly intensify, with
relatively low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures
and moist mid-level RH values. The various model Rapid
Intensification (RI) indices are quite high compared to the
climatological mean, and the NHC forecast depicts rapid
intensification. Jova is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on
Wednesday and into a major hurricane in about 36-48 h. The intensity
forecast lies at the higher end of the guidance envelope given the
favorable parameters and above climatological mean for RI, closest
to the SHIPS guidance. Later in the forecast period, the system is
forecast to move over a sharp SST gradient with much cooler ocean
temperatures inducing a weakening trend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 12.9N 108.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 13.3N 109.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 14.3N 111.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 15.1N 114.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 16.2N 116.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 17.3N 118.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 18.8N 121.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 21.5N 126.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 23.5N 130.7W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 052049
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jova Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023

...JOVA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 108.3W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jova was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 108.3 West. Jova is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days.
The system is forecast to pass well south and west of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Jova is forecast to rapidly intensify and is
expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 052048
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023
2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 108.3W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 108.3W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 108.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.3N 109.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.3N 111.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.1N 114.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.2N 116.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.3N 118.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.8N 121.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 110SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 21.5N 126.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.5N 130.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 108.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 051452
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
900 AM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023

Tropical Storm Jova continues to become better organized this
morning, with deep convection increasing near the low-level center.
Earlier AMSR microwave imagery showed a mid-level core developing,
with a sharp curved band on the southern side of system. Subjective
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and objective ADT intensity estimates
from UW-CIMMS have increased for this advisory to T3.5/45 kt. Given
the improved structure and satellite estimates, the intensity for
this advisory has increased to 45 kt.

The initial motion is westward or 280/9 kt. Jova is forecast to
continue on a general west to west-northwest motion the next
several days along the southern side of a ridge extending westward
over the southwestern United States. The track guidance is in
fairly good agreement, with the main difference being the forward
speed of Jova in the short-term. The NHC forecast is close to the
previous advisory, and lies near the corrected consensus aids.

Jova is in a favorable environment to continue strengthening with
relatively low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures
and moist mid-level RH values. The various model Rapid
Intensification (RI) indices are all well above normal. The
intensity forecast calls for rapid intensification, with Jova
becoming a hurricane on Wednesday. The intensity forecast lies at
the higher end of the guidance envelope given the favorable
parameters for RI, closest to the SHIPS guidance. Later in the
forecast period, the system is forecast to move over a sharp SST
gradient with much cooler ocean temperatures inducing a weakening
trend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 13.1N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 13.4N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 14.1N 110.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 15.1N 112.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 16.2N 115.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 17.5N 117.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 18.7N 120.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 21.3N 124.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 23.6N 129.4W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 051451
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jova Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
900 AM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023

...JOVA FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 107.4W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jova was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 107.4 West. Jova is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A general west to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days.
The system is forecast to pass well south and west of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Jova is forecast to rapidly intensify and is
expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 051451
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023
1500 UTC TUE SEP 05 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 107.4W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 107.4W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.4N 108.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.1N 110.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.1N 112.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.2N 115.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.5N 117.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.7N 120.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 21.3N 124.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 23.6N 129.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 107.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 050853 CCA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jova Advisory Number 3...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
300 AM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023

Corrected movement

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM JOVA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 106.9W
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jova was
located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 106.9 West. Jova is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A generally
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days.
The system is forecast to pass well south and west of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening, possibly at a rapid rate, is likely over the next
couple of days. Jova is expected to become a hurricane on
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 050851 CCA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023
0900 UTC TUE SEP 05 2023

CORRECTED MOVEMENT TO 10 KT

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 106.9W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 106.9W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 106.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.1N 107.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.7N 109.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.4N 113.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.8N 118.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 20.4N 123.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 22.5N 127.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 106.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 050842
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
300 AM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023

Deep convection has increased near the center of the tropical
cyclone, with limited banding features surrounding the central
overcast. Upper-level outflow is increasing over the system,
although it is a bit restricted over the northern part of the
circulation. A subjective Dvorak satellite classification from
TAFB and objective ADT intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS support a
current intensity estimate of 35 kt for this advisory. Therefore,
the tropical cyclone is being named at this time.

The initial motion estimate, 280/10 kt, remains somewhat uncertain
because the center is still not easy to locate. However, the
steering scenario for Jova appears to be relatively
straightforward. The flow on the south side of a ridge extending
westward from a mid-tropospheric high over the southwestern U.S.
should push Jova on a mostly west-northwestward track for the next
several days. The track guidance models are in reasonably good
agreement, although there are some differences in the predicted
forward speeds. The NHC forecast is close to the previous one and
lies between the simple and corrected dynamical consensus solutions.

Over the next couple of days, Jova will be moving through an
environment that should be quite conducive for strengthening,
possibly at a rapid pace, with low shear, high humidities, and warm
SSTs. The various model Rapid Intensification (RI) indices show
greater than normal RI probabilities. Accordingly, the official
forecast shows intensity increases on the order of 20-25 kt per day
over the next 48 hours. Later in the forecast period, cooler ocean
waters will likely cause a weakening trend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 12.8N 106.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 13.1N 107.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 13.7N 109.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 14.5N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 15.4N 113.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 16.5N 116.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 17.8N 118.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 20.4N 123.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 22.5N 127.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 050841
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jova Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
300 AM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM JOVA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 106.9W
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jova was
located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 106.9 West. Jova is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A generally
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days.
The system is forecast to pass well south and west of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening, possibly at a rapid rate, is likely over the next
couple of days. Jova is expected to become a hurricane on
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 050840
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023
0900 UTC TUE SEP 05 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 106.9W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 106.9W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 106.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.1N 107.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.7N 109.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.4N 113.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.8N 118.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 20.4N 123.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 22.5N 127.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 106.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 050234
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 04 2023

Microwave data and visible satellite imagery indicate the depression
is producing small curved bands of convection tonight. More of the
convective activity is occurring over the western portion of the
circulation, likely due to modest easterly shear over the system.
The bands are still somewhat fragmented, and the latest Dvorak
classifications are T2.0/30 kt from SAB and T2.5/35 kt from TAFB.
The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory, with
scatterometer data later tonight hopefully providing more clarity on
the system's location and intensity.

The somewhat uncertain initial motion is westward (280/10 kt) as the
cyclone is steered by a high pressure ridge to its north. This
ridge, which extends westward from the southwestern U.S. across
northern Mexico to the eastern Pacific, should remain the dominant
steering feature during the next several days. The various track
models generally agree on a west-northwestward motion through this
week, although there are speed differences noted during the first
few days of the forecast period, with the ECMWF faster than the GFS.
The updated NHC forecast is somewhat faster than the previous
prediction at most forecast times, and it generally lies between the
simple consensus (TVCN) and HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA) aids.

Environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable for some
significant intensification of the cyclone later this week. In the
near term, modest strengthening is forecast while the cyclone
becomes better organized and solidifies an inner core. Once this
occurs, the system should be primed to take advantage of conducive
conditions for strengthening. The deep-layer shear is forecast to be
fairly low for the next several days, and the cyclone is forecast to
move within a very moist and diffluent upper-level environment over
very warm SSTs during the next 72-96 h. The rapid intensification
(RI) indices, notably the SHIPS-RII and DTOPS, show a well above
average (60 to 70 percent) chance of a 65-kt intensity increase
during the next 72 h. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast
continues to explicitly show RI midweek, and the system is
predicted to peak at major hurricane strength. This forecast lies
between the IVCN/HCCA aids and the higher statistical-dynamical
guidance SHIPS and LGEM. By days 4-5, some weakening is expected
while the system moves over progressively cooler waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 12.7N 105.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 13.0N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 13.6N 107.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 14.3N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 15.1N 112.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 16.1N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 17.4N 117.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 20.0N 122.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 22.5N 126.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 050233
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 04 2023

...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME A HURRICANE
LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 105.6W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eleven-E was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 105.6 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
generally west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
several days. The system is forecast to pass well south and west of
Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual strengthening is expected during the next day or so,
followed by more significant strengthening through midweek. The
system is forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 050233
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023
0300 UTC TUE SEP 05 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 105.6W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 105.6W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 105.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.0N 106.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.6N 107.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.3N 110.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.1N 112.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.1N 114.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.4N 117.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 20.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 105.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 042037
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
400 PM CDT Mon Sep 04 2023

Recent visible satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance
located south of the southwestern coast of Mexico (93E) has
developed a well-defined circulation. In addition, a prominent band
of deep convection has formed around its western half. The latest
Dvorak classification Data-T from TAFB is a 2.0, which corresponds
to 30 kt. Based on the available data, the system has been
classified as Tropical Depression Eleven.

The depression is moving westward, with an estimated forward speed
of 10 kt. While all models agree that the cyclone will head
generally west-northwestward for the next 5 or more days, moving
well south and west of Mexico, there is substantial disagreement on
its forward speed. The main source of this uncertainty appears to be
differences in the strength of the primary steering mechanism
influencing the depression, a deep ridge centered over northern
Mexico and the southwestern U.S. that extends over the eastern
Pacific. The stronger the ridge, the faster the cyclone will move.
The uncertainty in the track forecast is much higher than normal by
the end of the forecast, with even the consensus models relatively
far apart. At day 5, the gap between HCCA and TVCN is more than 150
n mi. As a course of least regret, the NHC forecast doesn't favor
any one model or consensus aid, generally staying between the simple
and corrected consensus tracks.

The environment looks very conducive for strengthening, possibly
significantly so. SHIPS-derived shear is forecast to be near or
below 10 kt through day 5, with plenty of moisture and warm SSTs
available as well. It will likely take a day or so for the
depression to get sufficiently organized to take advantage of this
environment, so only slow strengthening is forecast for the first 24
h. Looking beyond that, the SHIPS-RII and DTOPS rapid
intensification (RI) probabilities for 65kt/72 h are both above 60
percent. The NHC forecast explicitly shows RI starting at 36 h and
continuing through 72 h. While there is spread at just how strong
the cyclone will get, most models suggest its peak will come between
72 and 96 h, so a peak intensity higher than what the NHC forecast
shows is definitely possible. Beginning at 96 h, the cyclone should
begin to quickly spin down as it moves over cooler waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 12.5N 104.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 12.8N 105.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 13.3N 106.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 13.9N 108.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 14.6N 110.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 15.5N 112.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 16.5N 114.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 19.0N 119.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 21.5N 124.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 042036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
400 PM CDT Mon Sep 04 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE BASIN LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 104.2W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E
was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 104.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
generally west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several
days. The depression is forecast to stay well south and west of
Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is likely. A relatively slow rate of intensification
is expected for the next day or so, followed by rapid strengthening
beginning by the middle of the week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 042036
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023
2100 UTC MON SEP 04 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 104.2W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 104.2W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 103.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 12.8N 105.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.3N 106.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.9N 108.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.6N 110.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.5N 114.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 19.0N 119.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 21.5N 124.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 104.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY



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