Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IRWIN-23
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 292035
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Irwin Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 29 2023

Irwin has failed to produce any convection near its center during
the last 15-18 h. Since it no longer satisfies the criteria of a
tropical cyclone, Irwin is being designated as a post-tropical
cyclone with this advisory. A recent scatterometer pass showed a
broad area of winds at or slightly above 30 kt in the northwestern
quadrant, and so the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

The post-tropical cyclone is moving slightly south of due west
(260/15 kt). A general westward motion at a gradually slower forward
speed is expected over the next several days while Irwin is steered
by a low-level ridge over the eastern Pacific. Gradual weakening is
forecast as the shallow cyclone spins down over cooler waters and in
a drier, more stable environment. While some intermittent bursts of
convection could occur during the next couple of days, the overall
environment does not appear conducive for Irwin to regenerate to a
tropical cyclone.

This is the last NHC advisory on Irwin. For additional information
on the post-tropical cyclone, please see High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO
header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 19.1N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 30/0600Z 18.9N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/1800Z 18.8N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 31/0600Z 18.8N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/1800Z 18.9N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 01/0600Z 19.0N 139.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/1800Z 19.0N 140.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/1800Z 19.0N 141.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/1800Z 19.5N 143.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 292034
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Irwin Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 29 2023

...IRWIN BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 130.3W
ABOUT 1340 MI...2155 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Irwin
was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 130.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28
km/h). This general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed
is expected over the next few days.

Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near
40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast
during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
to the northwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Irwin. For additional information on the post-tropical
cyclone, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 292034
TCMEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102023
2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 130.3W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 130.3W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 129.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.9N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.8N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 18.8N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 18.9N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 19.0N 139.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.0N 140.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 19.0N 141.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 19.5N 143.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 130.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON IRWIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02
KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 291437
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023
500 AM HST Tue Aug 29 2023

Irwin has been devoid of any organized convection since about 03
UTC. Its well-defined low-level circulation is fully exposed in
conventional satellite imagery. If the cyclone is unable to produce
convection soon, it is in danger of degenerating to a post-tropical
cyclone later today. Based on earlier scatterometer data, the
initial intensity is set at 35 kt, with these winds confined to the
northern portion of the circulation.

Cooler waters and a drier, more stable airmass along Irwin's track
do not bode well for its future as a tropical cyclone. In addition,
deep-layer westerly shear is forecast to increase beyond 48 h. So
while some intermittent bursts of convection cannot be ruled out
during the next couple of days, the overall environment does appear
conducive for Irwin to generate persistent organized convection
going forward. The updated forecast shows Irwin as a post-tropical
remnant low in 24 h, but this could occur even sooner if current
trends continue.

The storm is moving quickly westward at about 15 kt. A motion just
south of due west is expected during the next day or so while Irwin
is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. The steering
ridge is forecast to weaken later this week, which should cause the
cyclone to slow down and gradually turn more west-northwestward and
northwestward at days 4-5. The NHC track forecast lies very close to
the previous prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 19.6N 129.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 19.3N 131.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 19.0N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 31/0000Z 19.1N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/1200Z 19.3N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 01/0000Z 19.5N 138.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/1200Z 19.7N 139.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/1200Z 20.0N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/1200Z 21.5N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 291436
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023
500 AM HST Tue Aug 29 2023

...IRWIN BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 129.1W
ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 129.1 West. Irwin is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue today, followed by a gradually slower westward
motion later this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next several days. Irwin
could become a post-tropical cyclone later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 291436
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102023
1500 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 129.1W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 129.1W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 128.1W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.3N 131.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 19.0N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.1N 135.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 19.3N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 19.5N 138.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 19.7N 139.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 20.0N 141.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 21.5N 143.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 129.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 291000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10E (IRWIN) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (IRWIN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 19.5N 126.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 126.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.5N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.2N 132.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.1N 134.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.2N 136.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.4N 137.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.5N 139.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 19.6N 141.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.5N 143.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
291000Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 127.4W.
29AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 10E (IRWIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 936 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 290600Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
291600Z, 292200Z, 300400Z AND 301000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 290846
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 28 2023

Irwin's convective renaissance was short lived. Deep convection
associated with the tropical storm has decreased substantially since
0300 UTC. However, ASCAT data around 0500 UTC showed an area of
winds near or just above 35 kt to the north of Irwin, suggesting
that the cyclone had briefly (and very slightly) strengthened. Since
then, the decrease in convection has likely been accompanied by a
slight decrease in the winds, so the advisory intensity remains at
35 kt.

The tropical storm has finally turned toward the west, and there is
no change to the track forecast thinking. For the next several days
Irwin will be steered generally westward by a mid- to low-level
ridge to the north of Irwin. The NHC track forecast is very near
the TVCN and GFEX consensus models. Likewise, there's no change to
the intensity forecast reasoning. A combination of cool sea surface
temperatures and dry surrounding air should cause Irwin to slowly
weaken. The tropical cyclone could continue to produce enough
convection to remain a tropical cyclone for another day or so, but
it should become post-tropical by around mid-week, if not much
sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 19.5N 127.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 19.5N 129.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 19.2N 132.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 19.1N 134.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 19.2N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 31/1800Z 19.4N 137.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0600Z 19.5N 139.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0600Z 19.6N 141.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0600Z 20.5N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 290846
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 28 2023

...IRWIN NOW HEADED WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 127.1W
ABOUT 1130 MI...1820 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 127.1 West. Irwin is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion
is forecast to continue today. A continued westward heading with a
slower forward speed is expected later this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Small fluctuations in intensity are possible overnight. Slow
weakening is likely and Irwin could become post-tropical as soon as
tomorrow or Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 290844
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102023
0900 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 127.1W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 127.1W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 126.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.5N 129.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.2N 132.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.1N 134.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 19.2N 136.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 19.4N 137.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 19.5N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 19.6N 141.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 20.5N 143.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 127.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 290234
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023
500 PM HST Mon Aug 28 2023

Irwin has surprisingly recovered some of its convective organization
over the past few hours. Convection is primarily north of Irwin's
center of circulation, which may have contributed to the tropical
storm moving well to the right of NHC's forecasts for the last 18
hours or so. Earlier ASCAT data and the latest Dvorak analysis from
TAFB support the 35-kt intensity analysis.

Despite its recent poleward jog, Irwin is forecast to finally turn
westward tonight. The track models are in very good agreement now
on the forecast for Irwin, so only a small northward adjustment was
made to the NHC track forecast to account for Irwin's recent
right-of-track motion. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of
Irwin should keep the cyclone moving westward for the majority of
the forecast period, whether it retains its tropical cyclone status
or not. The NHC track forecast is based on the variable track
consensus aid TVCN.

Despite cool waters beneath Irwin and dry air surrounding the
tropical cyclone, simulated satellite imagery from most dynamical
models continues to indicate that Irwin will sustain some deep
convection for at least a couple more days. Small fluctuations in
intensity are possible during that period. Sooner or later, the
environment should cause Irwin to weaken and become post-tropical.
No changes of note were made to the NHC intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 19.3N 125.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 19.5N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 19.2N 130.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 19.1N 133.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 19.1N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 31/1200Z 19.3N 137.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0000Z 19.4N 138.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0000Z 19.6N 140.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0000Z 19.6N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 290233
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023
500 PM HST Mon Aug 28 2023

...IRWIN EXPECTED TO FINALLY TURN WESTWARD TONIGHT..


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 125.7W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was
located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 125.7 West. Irwin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected tonight. Irwin is then expected to
continue heading generally westward for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Only small changes in intensity are expected for the next day or
so. Slow weakening is likely after that and Irwin could become
post-tropical by mid-week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 290233
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102023
0300 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 125.7W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 125.7W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 125.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.5N 127.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.2N 130.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 19.1N 133.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.1N 135.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 19.3N 137.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 19.4N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 19.6N 140.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 19.6N 143.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 125.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 282031
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 28 2023

Deep convection has been fading away, and Irwin is getting closer to
becoming a post-tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery suggests
mid-level dry air is wrapping around much of circulation and an area
of decaying convection remains over the northern portion of storm.
The initial intensity remains at 35 kt based on recent ASCAT passes.

Irwin has yet to make its much anticipated westward turn and is
still moving west-northwestward at 9 kt. Still, model guidance
insists the cyclone will go to the west shortly and remains tightly
clustered. The general westward motion, with a increase in forward
speed, is expected to continue through the forecast period. The
latest track forecast has shifted to the north and lies between the
previous forecast and the simple consensus aids.

The storm appears to be in the process of weakening. The extent of
tropical-storm-force winds in the northeast quadrant has decreased
significantly based on the satellite-derived surface wind data. Sea
surface temperatures and mid-level relative humidities are expected
to decrease along the forecast track and Irwin is expect weaken
further in the next day or so. The storm is still forecast to
become a remnant low within 48 hours, though this could happen
sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 18.6N 124.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 19.0N 126.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 19.0N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 18.9N 131.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 19.0N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 31/0600Z 19.0N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/1800Z 19.2N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1800Z 19.3N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z 19.2N 142.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 282030
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 28 2023

...IRWIN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 124.2W
ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 124.2 West. Irwin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected shortly and this motion is expected to
continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next day or so and Irwin is
forecast to become a remnant low by Wednesday, if not sooner.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 282030
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102023
2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 124.2W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 124.2W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.0N 126.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.0N 129.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.9N 131.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.0N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 19.0N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 19.2N 137.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 19.3N 140.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 19.2N 142.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 124.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 281444
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023
500 AM HST Mon Aug 28 2023

Irwin continues to be a disheveled tropical cyclone. Infrared
satellite imagery has shown a recent burst of convection just north
of the estimated center and data from a microwave satellite pass at
0927 UTC indicates there is a curved band around the eastern portion
of the semicircle. Objective and subjective satellite estimates
range from 32-39 kt and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt as a
blend of these measurements.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt. The
cyclone is expected to turn westward in the low-level flow shortly
and continue in this direction with an increase in forward speed for
the next several days. The most recent forecast has shifted
slightly north of the previous prediction and lies near the various
consensus aids.

Irwin is crossing over a cooling gradient of sea surface
temperatures and into a dry and stable environment. Simulated
satellite imagery from global models suggests that the cyclone
should be devoid of convection within 48 hours. Only minor
adjustments have been made to the intensity forecast and it now
shows Irwin becoming a remnant low in a couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 18.0N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 18.5N 125.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 18.7N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 18.6N 130.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 18.6N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 31/0000Z 18.7N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/1200Z 18.8N 137.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1200Z 19.1N 139.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1200Z 19.0N 142.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 281444
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023
500 AM HST Mon Aug 28 2023

...IRWIN HOLDS STEADY AND EXPECTED TO TURN WEST SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 123.6W
ABOUT 950 MI...1525 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 123.6 West. Irwin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward
the west is expected shortly and this motion is expected to continue
for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next day or so and Irwin is
forecast to become a remnant low by Wednesday, if not sooner.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 281444
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102023
1500 UTC MON AUG 28 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 123.6W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......220NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 123.6W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 123.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.5N 125.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.7N 127.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.6N 130.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.6N 133.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 18.7N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 18.8N 137.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 19.1N 139.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 19.0N 142.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 123.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 280836
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 27 2023

Irwin is struggling as a tropical cyclone. Although a small burst
of convection has recently been noted near Irwin's center, little
organized deep convection associated with the tropical storm has
been observed during the past 12 h or so. SSTs under 26 deg C are
likely responsible for Irwin's lack of deep convection. A pair of
ASCAT passes around 0600 UTC did not capture the center of Irwin,
but did sample an area to the cyclone's northeast where winds above
30 kt were noted. Allowing for some undersampling, Irwin's
intensity remains 35 kt based on that data.

Only small adjustments were made to the NHC forecast, the most
visible of which was moving up the point where Irwin will become
post-tropical. While it is a little hard to believe based on
Irwin's current lack of convective activity, all available
dynamical models continue to indicate that Irwin will generate
sufficient convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone for
a couple more days. Regardless of Irwin's exact classification,
only small fluctuations in intensity are expected as the large
cyclone gradually spins down.

Irwin is still expected to turn westward by tomorrow morning and
then continue on that general heading for the next 5 days. The NHC
track forecast remains on the south side of the model guidance, but
is very close to the previous advisory official forecast track
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 17.6N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 18.0N 124.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 18.4N 126.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 18.4N 129.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 18.3N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 18.4N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/0600Z 18.6N 136.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0600Z 19.0N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0600Z 19.0N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 280835
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 27 2023

...IRWIN TO HEAD WEST WITH ONLY SMALL INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS
EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 123.0W
ABOUT 925 MI...1485 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 123.0 West. Irwin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected by early tomorrow morning. Continued
westward motion is then expected for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.
Irwin is forecast to become a remnant low by the end of the week,
but this transition could come sooner.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 280834
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102023
0900 UTC MON AUG 28 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 123.0W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......220NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 123.0W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 122.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.0N 124.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...220NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.4N 126.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.4N 129.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.3N 132.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.4N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 18.6N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 19.0N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 19.0N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 123.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 280233
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023
500 PM HST Sun Aug 27 2023

Cloud tops associated with Irwin's deep convection have warmed
during the past few hours, possibly due to the tropical cyclone
moving over cooler waters. The intensity estimate is still 35 kt,
based primarily on the latest Dvorak Final-T analysis from TAFB.

No substantial changes were made to the NHC track or intensity
forecast with this advisory. Along the forecast track, the sea
surface temperatures are in the 25-26 deg C range for the next 2-3
days. This could be warm enough for Irwin to sustain just enough
deep convection to retain its status as a tropical cyclone, as shown
in simulated satellite imagery from several dynamical models.
However that should also prevent Irwin from strengthening. After
that time, a combination of cool waters and a dry atmsopheric
environment should cause Irwin to become a post-tropical remnant
low. It's possible that transition could occur much sooner than
currently forecast. Irwin should turn westward tonight and continue
generally westward until it becomes a remnant low later this week.
The NHC track forecast is a little south of the various consensus
models for the first 48 hours based on recent satellite imagery
indicating that Irwin's westward turn has already begun, but is
close to them after that. The intensity forecast is directly in line
with the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 17.4N 122.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 17.9N 123.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 18.3N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 18.4N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 18.4N 131.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 18.3N 133.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 18.5N 136.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 19.0N 140.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z 19.0N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 280232
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023
500 PM HST Sun Aug 27 2023

...LARGE IRWIN FORECAST TO HEAD WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 122.5W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 122.5 West. Irwin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected tonight. Irwin is forecast to continue
moving westward at a similar forward speed after that.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Small fluctuations in intensity are possible through mid-week. Irwin
will likely become a remnant low within the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 280232
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102023
0300 UTC MON AUG 28 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 122.5W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 122.5W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.9N 123.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.3N 126.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...160NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.4N 128.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.4N 131.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.3N 133.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 18.5N 136.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 19.0N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 19.0N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 122.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 272042
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 27 2023

The cloud pattern has changed little in appearance this morning. The
center of circulation remains displaced to the north of a shapeless
deep convective mass, likely due to a combination of modest
northeasterly shear and dry mid-tropospheric air intruding from the
northwest. A scatterometer pass over the eastern half of the
cyclone indicated southerly winds of 35-37 kt well removed from the
center, and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this
advisory.

Irwin should be able to produce sufficient deep convection,
particularly in the eastern semicircle, along with intermittent
bursts near the center, thereby maintaining its tropical storm
status in the short term. Subsequently, the relatively large
circulation should take some time to spin down similar to what the
global and regional guidance suggests. Decreasing SSTs and a dry,
stable marine layer air mass is expected to cause the cyclone to
weaken to a depression in a few days and degenerate into a remnant
low toward the end of the forecast period.

Using surface center fixes from visible and recent microwave
imagery, along with the previously mentioned partial METOP-B/C
scatterometer wind overpasses, gives an estimated initial motion of
west-northwestward, or 295/9 kt. A subtropical high pressure
anchored to the north of the cyclone should maintain a generally
west-northwestward to westward heading through day 5. Along-track
inconsistency in the models continues to complicate the forecast
track solution. The best approach in this case, however, is to side
with a compromise of the best-performing HCCA and TVCE consensus
guidance, and is the basis of the official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 17.2N 121.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 17.7N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 18.4N 124.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 18.6N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 18.6N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 18.4N 132.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 18.4N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 18.8N 138.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z 19.1N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 272041
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 27 2023

...IRWIN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 121.3W
ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was
located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 121.3 West. Irwin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the west is anticipated on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected in the short term. Weakening is
forecast to begin Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 272040
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102023
2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 121.3W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 121.3W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 120.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.7N 122.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.4N 124.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.6N 127.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 10SE 10SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.6N 130.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 10SE 10SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.4N 132.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 10SE 10SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.4N 135.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 18.8N 138.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 19.1N 141.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 121.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 271600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10E (IRWIN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (IRWIN) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 16.6N 120.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 120.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.3N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.8N 123.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.2N 126.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 18.2N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 18.0N 132.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.0N 135.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 18.4N 138.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.7N 141.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
271600Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 120.8W.
27AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 10E (IRWIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 981 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 271200Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272200Z,
280400Z, 281000Z AND 281600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 271440
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023
500 AM HST Sun Aug 27 2023

The system has become better organized during the past several
hours. This morning's satellite presentation consists of a primary
curved band wrapping around the south and east semi-circles of the
depression and a recent burst of deep convection near the surface
center. Subjective and available UW-CIMMS objective satellite
intensity estimates support increasing the initial intensity to 35
kt for this advisory. Irwin becomes the ninth named tropical
storm of the 2023 eastern Pacific season.

Irwin is expected to remain in marginally favorable atmospheric and
oceanic conditions for another 12 hours, so some slight
strengthening should occur. The cyclone will move over gradually
decreasing SSTs while entering a thermodynamically dry and stable
surrounding air mass by mid-period. Based on these negative
contributing factors, the NHC intensity forecast shows modest
strengthening in the short term, then slow weakening through
the remaining portion of the forecast while indicating Irwin as a
remnant low by day 4. A compromise of the various consensus
intensity models was used for the NHC intensity forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
295/10 kt. The forecast track philosophy remains unchanged for
this advisory. A strong subtropical ridge extending westward from
the southwestern U.S. to the eastern Pacific should steer the
cyclone in a generally west-northwestward heading through the 24
hour period. Afterward, a turn toward the west with an increase in
forward motion is expected through day 3 as the ridge to the north
builds westward over the central part of the eastern Pacific. A
reduction in forward speed is anticipated for the remaining portion
of the forecast. At the same time, Irwin weakens to a vertically
shallow system and is steered by the low-level tradewind flow. The
track forecast lies between the HFIP HCCA consensus model and the
TVCE simple multi-model aid.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 16.8N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 17.3N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 17.8N 123.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 18.2N 126.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 18.2N 129.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 18.0N 132.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 18.0N 135.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 18.4N 138.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1200Z 18.7N 141.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 271440
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023
500 AM HST Sun Aug 27 2023

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 120.7W
ABOUT 820 MI...1315 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 120.7 West. Irwin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the west is anticipated by Monday evening.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected in the short
term. Weakening is forecast to commence by Tuesday night.


Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 271439
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102023
1500 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 120.7W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 210SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 120.7W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 120.2W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.3N 122.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.8N 123.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.2N 126.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 10SE 10SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.2N 129.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 10SE 10SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.0N 132.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 10SE 10SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.0N 135.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 10SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 18.4N 138.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 18.7N 141.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 120.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 270844
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 26 2023

While abundant deep convection continues in association with
Tropical Depression Ten-E, there is little curvature to the
convection and the low-level center continues to be positioned on
the northeastern side of the deep convection. Subjective Dvorak
intensity fixes from SAB and TAFB are unchanged (and the ASCAT
scatterometers missed sampling the system), so Ten-E's maximum
winds remain at 30 kt.

While the system is currently located over quite warm waters with
abundant moisture and low vertical wind shear, these conducive
conditions will not last long. Along the projected forecast track,
the sea-surface temperatures should lower below 26C as moisture
decreases and convective instability diminishes in about 36 h. On
days 4 to 5, the system should encounter even colder waters and
drier conditions. Based on the above conditions, Ten-E is
anticipated to only gradually intensify through 24-36 h, followed by
gradual weakening until it is forecast to become a remnant low at
around day 4. The official intensity forecast is based upon the IVCN
simple consensus and shows a slightly weaker peak intensity than the
previous advisory.

Currently, the tropical depression is moving toward the
west-northwest at around 10 kt. A longitudinally-extended mid-level
ridge should continue the system's movement toward the
west-northwest at a slightly faster forward speed for the next
couple days. As Ten-E begins to weaken, it should turn toward the
west at a slower rate of speed while it gets steered by the
low-level trades. There continues to be significant along-track
spread among the guidance. The GFS global model and HAFS-COAMPS
hurricane models are substantially slower along the track, while the
UKMET and ECMWF global models are substantially faster. The
official track forecast is most similar to the HFIP corrected
consensus technique - which leans a bit toward the latter track
solutions - and is nearly unchanged from the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 16.6N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 17.3N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 17.9N 122.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 18.3N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 18.3N 127.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 18.2N 130.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 18.0N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 18.3N 138.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0600Z 18.8N 141.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Landsea


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 270843
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 26 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 119.6W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E
was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 119.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h). The system is expected to move toward the west-northwest at a
slightly faster forward speed over the next couple of days, before
subsequently turning toward the west and slowing down by mid-week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm by tomorrow. However, the system is
unlikely to reach hurricane intensity and should begin weakening by
mid-week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 270843
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102023
0900 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 119.6W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 210SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 119.6W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 119.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.3N 120.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.9N 122.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 10SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.3N 125.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 10SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.3N 127.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 10SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.2N 130.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.0N 133.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 18.3N 138.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 18.8N 141.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 119.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 270235
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023
500 PM HST Sat Aug 26 2023

Invest 92-E has become better organized this evening as a curved
band of deep convection has become established along the low's
southwestern semicircle. Additionally, a well-defined center has
been observed in the GOES visible satellite imagery along the edge
of the curved band. Thus advisories are being initiated on Tropical
Depression Ten-E.

The initial intensity of 30 kt is based upon a blend of the TAFB and
SAB subjective Dvorak fixes and is consistent with the scatterometer
winds observed this afternoon. While the system is currently
located over quite warm waters with abundant moisture and low
vertical wind shear, these conducive conditions will not last long.
Along the projected forecast track, the sea-surface temperatures
should lower below 26C as moisture decreases and convective
instability diminishes in about 36 h. On days 4 to 5, the system
should encounter even colder waters and drier conditions. Based on
the above conditions, Ten-E is anticipated to only gradually
intensify through 36 h, followed by gradual weakening until it is
forecast to become a remnant low around day 4. The intensity
forecast is based upon the a blend of the IVCN simple consensus and
HFIP corrected consensus approaches, though none of the
normally-reliable guidance suggests intensification to a hurricane
for the system.

Currently, the tropical depression is moving toward the northwest at
around 8 kt, though the initial motion is uncertain due to Ten-E's
recent formation. A longitudinally-extended mid-level ridge should
continue the system's movement toward the northwest or
west-northwest at a slightly faster forward speed for the next
couple days. As Ten-E begins to weaken, it should turn toward the
west at a slower rate of speed while it gets steered by the
low-level trades. There is significant along-track spread among
the guidance. The GFS global model and HAFS-COAMPS hurricane models
are substantially slower along the track, while the UKMET and ECMWF
global models are substantially faster. This forecast is most
similar to the HFIP corrected consensus technique, which leans a bit
toward the latter track solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 16.1N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 16.8N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 17.5N 121.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 18.2N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 18.4N 126.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 18.4N 129.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 18.1N 132.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 18.2N 137.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0000Z 18.5N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Landsea


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 270234
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023
500 PM HST Sat Aug 26 2023

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...
...EXPECTED TO BE NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 118.6W
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E
was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 118.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). The
system is expected to move toward the northwest or west-northwest
at a slightly faster forward speed over the next couple of days,
before subsequently turning toward the west and slowing down by
mid-week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm by tomorrow. However, the system is
unlikely to reach hurricane intensity and should begin weakening by
mid-week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 270234
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102023
0300 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 118.6W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 118.6W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 118.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.8N 119.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.5N 121.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.2N 124.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.4N 126.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.4N 129.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.1N 132.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 18.2N 137.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 18.5N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 118.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA



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