Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HAROLD-23
in United States, Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 222039
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Harold Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

Harold has been moving quickly inland over south Texas and
weakening. Surface observations indicate that the maximum winds
are now around 30 kt, making the system a tropical depression.
Despite the decrease in winds, the minimum pressure remains fairly
low, 999 mb, and heavy rains continue to affect a large portion of
southern Texas.

Harold is moving to the west-northwest at about 20 kt in the flow on
the south side of a strong mid-level ridge. The depression is
expected to move farther inland across southern Texas and northern
Mexico until it dissipates on Wednesday.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Harold. Future information on this system can be found in
discussions issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at
1000 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCDAT4, WMO header WTNT24 KWNH, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected across south Texas through early
Wednesday, and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding. Across
portions of northern Coahuila and northern Nuevo Leon in Mexico,
flash flooding with possible landslides in mountainous terrain is
expected through Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 27.6N 99.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 28.7N 101.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 222038
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harold Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...HAROLD WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE...
...NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 99.3W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM E OF LAREDO TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in southern Texas and northern Mexico should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harold
was located inland near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 99.3 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33
km/h), and this motion should continue until it dissipates on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Harold can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Harold is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches, across South Texas
through early Wednesday. Scattered instances of flash flooding will
be possible.

Across Mexico, rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches, with local amounts
of 10 inches, are expected across portions of northern Coahuila and
northern Nuevo Leon through Wednesday. Scattered instances of flash
flooding are expected.

WIND: Gusty winds are possible in portions of southern Texas and
northern Mexico through tonight.

STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to recede through this
evening. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

SURF: Swells are expected to diminish near the coast of south Texas
through this evening. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Harold. Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction
Center beginning at 1000 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO
header WTNT24 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 222036
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAROLD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092023
2100 UTC TUE AUG 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 99.3W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 99.3W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 98.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 28.7N 101.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 99.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT4, WMO HEADER WTNT24
KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 221749
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harold Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
100 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...CORE OF HAROLD INLAND OVER SOUTH TEXAS...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 98.4W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ESE OF HEBBRONVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Port O'Connor to Sargent, Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in eastern Texas and northern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harold was
located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 98.4 West. Harold is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue, taking the system farther inland
over southern Texas and northern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is forecast, and Harold is expected to
become a tropical depression later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. An observation in Falfurrias, Texas, recently
reported sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h) with a gust to 60 mph
(98 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches). A
minimum pressure very near the center of 997 mb (29.44 inches) was
recently measured in Falfurrias, Texas.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Harold can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Harold is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches,
across South Texas through early Wednesday. Scattered instances of
flash flooding will be possible.

Across Mexico, rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches, with local amounts
of 10 inches, are expected across portions of northern Coahuila and
northern Nuevo Leon Tuesday through Wednesday. Scattered instances
of flash flooding are expected.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
during the next few hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of Rio Grande to Sargent, including Baffin Bay, Corpus
Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across south Texas
through the afternoon.

SURF: Large swells will affect portions of southern Texas for
several more hours. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 221450
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Harold Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

Radar data from Brownsville, Texas, indicate that the center of
Harold reformed to the north of the previous Air Force Hurricane
Hunter fixes and has now made landfall over Padre Island, Texas
between Port Mansfield and Corpus Christi. The NOAA Buoy at Padre
Island recently reported sustained tropical-storm-force winds with
gusts around 50 kt, and tropical-storm-force have very recently been
reported along portions of the south Texas coast. Bands of heavy
rain are spreading inland over south Texas, mostly to the north of
the center. The initial intensity is set at 45 kt based on radar
data and surface observations.

Harold is moving quickly to the west-northwest at 18 kt in the flow
on the south side of a strong mid-level ridge. The storm is
expected to move farther inland across southern Texas and northern
Mexico during the next day or so as it remains on the south side of
the ridge.

Since the center of the storm has reached the coast, the window for
strengthening has closed. Land interaction should cause a quick
decay, and Harold is expected to become a tropical depression later
today and dissipate on Wednesday.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected across south Texas through early
Wednesday, and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding. Across
portions of northern Coahuila and northern Nuevo Leon in Mexico,
flash flooding with possible landslides in mountainous terrain is
expected through Wednesday.

2. Coastal flooding is possible along the south Texas coast
through this afternoon.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
warning area during the next several hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 27.1N 97.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...ON THE COAST
12H 23/0000Z 27.7N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/1200Z 29.5N 103.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 221449
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harold Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...HAROLD MAKES LANDFALL ON PADRE ISLAND TEXAS...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 97.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Port O'Connor to Sargent, Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in eastern Texas and northern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Radar from Brownsville, Texas, indicate that the center of Harold
has made landfall on Padre Island around 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC).
The center of Tropical Storm Harold was located on the coast near
latitude 27.1 North, longitude 97.4 West. Harold is moving toward
the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continue, taking the system inland over southern Texas and
northern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady weakening is forecast, and Harold is expected to become a
tropical depression later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy at Padre Island reported a sustained
wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust of 59 mph (94 km/h). An
observation in Laguna Shores, Texas, reported a sustained wind of
39 mph (63 km/h) and a wind gust of 48 mph (78 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Harold can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Harold is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches,
across South Texas through early Wednesday. Scattered instances of
flash flooding will be possible.

Across Mexico, rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches, with local amounts
of 10 inches, are expected across portions of northern Coahuila and
northern Nuevo Leon Tuesday through Wednesday. Scattered instances
of flash flooding are expected.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
during the next several hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of Rio Grande to Sargent, including Baffin Bay, Corpus
Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across south Texas
through the afternoon.

SURF: Large swells will affect portions of southern Texas today.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 221449
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM HAROLD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092023
1500 UTC TUE AUG 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 97.4W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 97.4W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 96.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 27.7N 99.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.5N 103.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 97.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 22/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 221400
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Harold Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
900 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...HAROLD STRENGTHENS AND REFORMS TO THE NORTH...

Radar images and surface observations indicate that the center of
Harold has reformed to the north of the previous estimated position
and has strengthened. The maximum sustained winds are now
estimated at 50 mph (85 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 97.0W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 221149
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harold Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
700 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...HAROLD EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTH TEXAS COAST LATER
THIS MORNING...
...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS MOVING ONSHORE IN THE WARNING
AREA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 96.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Port O'Connor to Sargent, Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern Texas and northern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harold was
located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 96.4 West. Harold is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue through tonight, and the
system is forecast to move inland over south Texas later this
morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible before Harold reaches the
Texas coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Harold can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Harold is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches, with isolated higher amounts of 7 inches, across South Texas
through early Wednesday. Scattered instances of flash flooding will
be possible.

Across Mexico, rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches, with local amounts
of 10 inches, are expected across portions of northern Coahuila and
northern Nuevo Leon Tuesday through Wednesday. Scattered instances
of flash flooding are expected.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
today.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of Rio Grande to Sargent, including Baffin Bay, Corpus
Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across south Texas
through the afternoon.

SURF: Large swells will affect portions of southern Texas through
Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 220854
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Harold Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

Air Force Hurricane Hunter wind observations indicate that the
cyclone strengthened to a tropical storm earlier this morning.
However, the circulation is not very well defined and the low-level
center is somewhat elongated from south to north. Imagery from the
Brownsville WSR-88D radar shows broad cyclonic turning, with curved
rain bands moving onshore of the south Texas coast.

Harold is embedded in strong deep-layer easterlies on the southern
periphery of a large anticyclone over the east-central United
States. As a result, the cyclone is moving fairly briskly toward
the west-northwest at around 285/16 kt. This general motion should
continue through tonight, and the official forecast is quite
similar to the previous one. This is also very close to the latest
corrected consensus, HCCA prediction.

The system still has a short time to strengthen over the warm Gulf
waters, and the latest SHIPS guidance shows slight strengthening
within the next 12 hours. This is reflected in the official
forecast. Since the cyclone does not have a well-defined inner
core, however, rapid intensification is not likely before landfall.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Harold is expected across
South Texas through early Wednesday, and may produce areas of flash
and urban flooding. Across portions of northern Coahuila and
northern Nuevo Leon in Mexico, flash flooding with possible
landslides in mountainous terrain is expected Tuesday through
Wednesday.

2. Coastal flooding is possible along the south Texas coast
today through Tuesday evening.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area,and
are possible in the watch area, within a few hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 25.8N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 26.5N 97.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/0600Z 27.8N 101.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1800Z 29.5N 104.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 220852
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harold Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...HAROLD HEADED FOR THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST...
...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ONSHORE IN THE
WARNING AREA...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 95.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ESE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Port O'Connor to Sargent, Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern Texas and northern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harold was
located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 95.1 West. Harold is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue through tonight, and the
system is forecast to move inland over south Texas by midday today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible before Harold reaches the Texas
coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Harold can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Harold is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches, with isolated higher amounts of 7 inches, across South Texas
through early Wednesday. Scattered instances of flash flooding will
be possible.

Across Mexico, rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches, with local amounts
of 10 inches, are expected across portions of northern Coahuila and
northern Nuevo Leon Tuesday through Wednesday. Scattered instances
of flash flooding are expected.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and are possible in the watch area beginning early today.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of Rio Grande to Sargent, including Baffin Bay, Corpus
Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across south Texas
through the afternoon.

SURF: Large swells will affect portions of southern Texas through
Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 220851
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM HAROLD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092023
0900 UTC TUE AUG 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 95.1W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 95.1W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 94.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 26.5N 97.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.8N 101.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.5N 104.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 95.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 22/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 220557
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harold Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
100 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 94.4W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM ESE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Port O'Connor to Sargent, Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern Texas and northern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harold was
located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 94.4 West. Harold is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue today and tonight, and the
system is forecast to move inland over south Texas by midday
today.

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible
before Harold reaches the Texas coast.

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunters is
1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Harold can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3
to 5 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 7 inches, across South
Texas through early Wednesday. Scattered instances of flash
flooding will be possible.

Across Mexico, rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches, with local amounts
of 10 inches, are expected across portions of northern Coahuila and
northern Nuevo Leon today and Wednesday. Scattered instances
of flash flooding are expected.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and are possible in the watch area beginning early today.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of Rio Grande to Sargent, including Baffin Bay, Corpus
Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across south Texas
from early today into the afternoon.

SURF: Large swells will affect portions of southern Texas through
Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 220249
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is becoming better
organized. Deep convection has been increasing near the mid-level
center, with the apparent low-level center displaced on the south
side of the convective mass. The latest satellite classifications
still support an intensity of 30 kt, and an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to be in the area overnight for a
more detailed look at the wind field.

The depression is moving fairly quickly to the west-northwest at 16
kt on the south side of a strong mid-level ridge located over the
central United States. This general motion should continue through
landfall tomorrow by midday. The guidance has shifted a bit to the
north on this cycle, and the NHC forecast follows the recent
trends.

The system should strengthen soonb through landfall over the warm
Gulf waters, though its time is limited. It should be noted that
the cyclone moves inland between the 12- and 24-hour points so it is
possible that the system gets a little stronger than the forecast
intensity values below. No noteworthy changes were required to the
last NHC wind speed forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Nine is expected across
South Texas through early Wednesday, and may produce areas of flash
and urban flooding. Across portions of northern Coahuila and
northern Nuevo Leon in Mexico, flash flooding with possible
landslides in mountainous terrain is expected Tuesday through
Wednesday.

2. Coastal flooding is possible along the south Texas coast
tonight through Tuesday evening.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
are possible in the watch area beginning early Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 25.7N 93.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 26.3N 96.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 27.3N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1200Z 29.0N 103.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 220246
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092023
0300 UTC TUE AUG 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 93.3W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 93.3W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 92.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 26.3N 96.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 27.3N 99.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.0N 103.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 93.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 22/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 220247
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS...
...FORECAST TO BRING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS
BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 93.3W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ESE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Port O'Connor to Sargent, Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern Texas and northern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine
was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 93.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30
km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through
Tuesday, and the system is forecast to move inland over south Texas
by midday Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to
become a tropical storm before it reaches the Texas coast.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts
of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 7 inches, across
South Texas through early Wednesday. Scattered instances of flash
flooding will be possible.

Across Mexico, rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches, with local amounts
of 10 inches, are expected across portions of northern Coahuila and
northern Nuevo Leon on Tuesday and Wednesday. Scattered instances
of flash flooding are expected.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and are possible in the watch area beginning early Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of Rio Grande to Sargent, including Baffin Bay, Corpus
Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across south Texas
from early Tuesday into the afternoon.

SURF: Large swells generated by the depression will affect portions
of southern Texas tonight through Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 212347
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
700 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS FOR SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 92.4W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM ESE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Port O'Connor to Sargent, Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern Texas and northern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 92.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A fast
motion to the west is expected to continue, and the system is
forecast to move inland over south Texas by midday Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to
become a tropical storm before it reaches the Texas coast.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts
of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 7 inches, across
South Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday. Areas of flash flooding will
be possible.

Across Mexico, rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches, with local amounts
of 10 inches, are expected across portions of northern Coahuila and
northern Nuevo Leon on Tuesday and Wednesday. Areas of flash
flooding are expected.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and are possible in the watch area early Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of Rio Grande to Sargent, including Baffin Bay, Corpus
Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across south Texas on
Tuesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by the depression will affect
portions of southern Texas tonight through Tuesday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 212045
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago and data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters indicate that the system now has a closed and
fairly well-defined center of circulation. In addition, deep
convection has been persisting over the central and western Gulf of
Mexico. The system now meets the definition of a tropical
depression, and the initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt. The
far outer bands of the depression are nearing the coast of Texas and
northern Mexico, and they are expected to begin moving inland
tonight.

The depression is moving fairly quickly to the west at 16 kt on the
south side of a strong mid-level ridge located over the central
United States. A continued quick west or west-northwest motion is
expected, taking the system over southern Texas by midday Tuesday.
The models are in fairly good agreement, and little change was made
to the previous NHC track forecast.

Strengthening is expected, but the limited time over water and its
current broad structure suggest that rapid intensification is
unlikely. The system is expected to move inland between the 12- and
24-hour points so it is possible that the system gets a little
stronger than the forecast intensity values.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from the depression is expected across South
Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday, and may produce areas of flash and
urban flooding. Across portions of northern Coahuila and northern
Nuevo Leon in Mexico, flash flooding with possible landslides in
mountainous terrain is expected Tuesday into Wednesday.

2. Coastal flooding is possible along the south Texas coast
tonight through Tuesday morning.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
are possible in the watch area beginning early Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 25.2N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 25.8N 94.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 26.8N 98.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/0600Z 28.1N 101.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 212044
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT REACHES
SOUTH TEXAS...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 91.6W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM ESE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Port O'Connor to Sargent, Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern Texas and northern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 91.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A fast
motion to the west is expected to continue, and the system is
forecast to move inland over south Texas by midday Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to
become a tropical storm before it reaches the Texas coast.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts
of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 7 inches, across
South Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday. Areas of flash flooding will
be possible.

Across Mexico, rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches, with local amounts
of 10 inches, are expected across portions of northern Coahuila and
northern Nuevo Leon on Tuesday and Wednesday. Areas of flash
flooding are expected.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and are possible in the watch area early Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of Rio Grande to Sargent, including Baffin Bay, Corpus
Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across south Texas on
Tuesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by the depression will affect
portions of southern Texas tonight through Tuesday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 212044
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092023
2100 UTC MON AUG 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 91.6W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 91.6W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 91.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 25.8N 94.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 26.8N 98.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 28.1N 101.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 91.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 22/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 211910
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
100 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING
TEXAS...
...FLOODING RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 91.0W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM ESE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Port O'Connor to Sargent, Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern Texas and northern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
25.0 North, longitude 91.0 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A fast motion to the west is expected
to continue, and the system is forecast to move inland over south
Texas early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to
become a tropical storm before it reaches the Texas coast.

Satellite images indicate that the system continues to become
better organized and it is expected to become a tropical depression
later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the disturbance can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce
storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated higher
amounts of 7 inches, across Southern Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday.
This rainfall could lead to areas of flash and urban flooding.

Across Mexico, storm total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with local
amounts of 10 inches, are expected across portions of Coahilla and
Nuevo Leon on Tuesday and Wednesday. Areas of flash and
urban flooding are expected.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and are possible in the watch area by Tuesday morning.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of Rio Grande to Sargent, including Baffin Bay, Corpus
Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

SURF: Large swells generated by the disturbance will affect
portions of southern Texas tonight through Tuesday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 211753
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
100 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING
TEXAS...
...FLOODING RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 91.0W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM ESE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Port O'Connor to Sargent, Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern Texas and northern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
25.0 North, longitude 91.0 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A fast motion to the west is expected
to continue, and the system is forecast to move inland over south
Texas early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to
become a tropical storm before it reaches the Texas coast.

Satellite images indicate that the system continues to become
better organized and it is expected to become a tropical depression
later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the disturbance can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce
storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated higher
amounts of 7 inches, across Southern Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday.
This rainfall could lead to areas of flash and urban flooding.

Across Mexico, storm total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with local
amounts of 10 inches, are expected across portions of Coahilla and
Nuevo Leon on Tuesday and Wednesday. Areas of flash and
urban flooding are expected.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and are possible in the watch area by Tuesday morning.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of Rio Grande to Sargent, including Baffin Bay, Corpus
Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

SURF: Large swells generated by the disturbance will affect
portions of southern Texas tonight through Tuesday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 211440
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

The broad area of low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico
continues to gradually become better organized with showers and
thunderstorms increasing on the system's north side. However,
surface observations and early morning visible satellite images
suggest that it does not have a well-defined center yet, and
therefore, does not meet the definition of a tropical cyclone at
this time. Since the system is forecast to strengthen and make
landfall as a tropical storm on Tuesday, advisories are being
initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine with Tropical Storm
Warnings now in effect for portions of south Texas.

The disturbance is moving fairly quickly to the west at 14 kt on the
south side of a strong mid-level ridge located over the central U.S.
An even faster motion to the west or west-northwest is expected,
taking the system over southern Texas by midday Tuesday. It should
be noted that since the system does not yet have a clear center, the
details of the track forecast are a bit uncertain. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon, which should help assess the low-level structure.

The environmental factors are generally favorable for the system to
strengthen. However, there is limited time for the disturbance to
take advantage of those conditions, especially since it still lacks
a well-defined center. The NHC official intensity forecast shows
the system reaching a peak intensity of 40 kt before landfall, which
is near the high end of the model guidance. Rapid weakening is
expected after landfall.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected
across South Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday. The heavy rainfall may
produce areas of flash and urban flooding. Across portions of
Coahilla and Nuevo Leon in Mexico, flash flooding with possible
landslides in mountainous terrain is expected Tuesday into
Wednesday.

2. Coastal flooding is possible along the south Texas coast
tonight through Tuesday morning.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
are possible in the watch area beginning Tuesday morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 25.0N 89.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 22/0000Z 25.5N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 22/1200Z 26.6N 96.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 27.8N 100.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 211440
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS...
...FLOODING RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 89.9W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM ESE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for portions of south
Texas south of Port O'Connor. A Tropical Storm Watch has been
issued from Port O'Connor northward to Sargent.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Port O'Connor to Sargent, Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern Texas and northern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 25.0 North, longitude 89.9 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A fast motion to the west
is expected to continue, and the system is forecast to move inland
over south Texas early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a
tropical storm before it reaches the Texas coast.

Satellite images indicate that the system is becoming better
organized and it is expected to become a tropical depression later
today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the disturbance can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce
storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated higher
amounts of 7 inches, across Southern Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday.
This rainfall could lead to areas of flash and urban flooding.

Across Mexico, storm total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with local
amounts of 10 inches, are expected across portions of Coahilla and
Nuevo Leon on Tuesday and Wednesday. Areas of flash and
urban flooding are expected.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and are possible in the watch area by Tuesday morning.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of Rio Grande to Sargent, including Baffin Bay, Corpus
Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

SURF: Large swells generated by the disturbance will affect
portions of southern Texas tonight through Tuesday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 211439
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092023
1500 UTC MON AUG 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 89.9W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 89.9W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 89.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 25.5N 92.8W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 26.6N 96.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 27.8N 100.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 89.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 21/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>