Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANKLIN-23
in Bermuda, Turks and Caicos Islands, Dominican Republic, Haiti

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Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 012040
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Franklin Discussion Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

The satellite appearance of Franklin suggests the cyclone has
undergone a warm core seclusion process. Earlier scatterometer data
showed a cold front nearing the core of Franklin, and recent visible
satellite images suggest the presence of a bent-back occlusion
wrapping around the western side of the low that appears to be the
focus for the ongoing convection. Also, the latest FSU phase space
diagrams from the GFS and ECMWF models show a thickness asymmetry
consistent with a warm-core frontal cyclone. Therefore, it appears
Franklin has completed its extratropical transition and is no longer
a tropical cyclone. Since the earlier scatterometer data, the latest
global model fields suggest that baroclinic forcing has resulted in
a deepening of the low, with an acceleration of northerly winds to
the west of the bent-back front. A blend of wind speeds from the
various global models supports an initial intensity of 70 kt.

Franklin appears likely to remain a powerful, hurricane-force
extratropical cyclone during the next 12 h or so due to baroclinic
forcing. Thereafter, the extratropical cyclone is forecast to weaken
as the low moves deeper into the mid-latitudes and gradually fills.
Franklin is still moving northeastward (50/15 kt) within the flow
between a deep-layer trough over the northwestern Atlantic and a
subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. A faster northeastward
motion is forecast during the next couple of days, followed by a
gradual turn toward the east and east-southeast later in the
period as the cyclone rotates around a larger cut-off low over the
eastern Atlantic. The global models are finally in better agreement
on this outcome, and the track forecast has been adjusted south of
the previous one at days 3-5.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Franklin. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 39.5N 53.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 02/0600Z 41.1N 50.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 02/1800Z 43.6N 45.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 03/0600Z 45.5N 41.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 03/1800Z 46.8N 36.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 04/0600Z 47.8N 32.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/1800Z 48.0N 29.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/1800Z 47.5N 26.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/1800Z 46.0N 20.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 012038
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Franklin Advisory Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

...FRANKLIN HAS BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 53.8W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Franklin was located near latitude 39.5 North, longitude 53.8 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph
(28 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected during the
next couple of days, followed by a turn to the east-northeast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight, but
gradual weakening is forecast this weekend into early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Franklin. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 012037
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
2100 UTC FRI SEP 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 53.8W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT.......100NE 170SE 130SW 220NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 53.8W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 54.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 41.1N 50.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 140SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 43.6N 45.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 45.5N 41.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 46.8N 36.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 47.8N 32.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 48.0N 29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 90SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 47.5N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 46.0N 20.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N 53.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON FRANKLIN. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 011448
TCDAT3

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

The latest satellite images of Franklin indicate the system is
gradually losing tropical characteristics. The inner circulation of
the system is exposed, with a curved band of deep convection
displaced to the east of its center by strong westerly shear. The
low-level center is also losing definition and appears more
elongated than yesterday. A cold front is racing southeastward
toward Franklin, with rope clouds evident in visible satellite
imagery over the northern Atlantic. Recent scatterometer data shows
peak winds of 55-60 kt to the west of the center, with a larger area
of 34-kt winds in the northwest quadrant due to the approaching
front. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 65 kt.

In the short term, Franklin appears likely to remain at or near
hurricane-force intensity due to baroclinic forcing while it merges
with a frontal system over the northern Atlantic. This scenario is
supported by all the global models, which show a narrow band of
strong winds persisting within the western portion of the
circulation during the next 12-24 h (consistent with the
aforementioned ASCAT data). Soon thereafter, the extratropical
cyclone is forecast to weaken as the low moves deeper into the
mid-latitudes and gradually fills. The updated NHC intensity
forecast lies between the GFS and ECMWF in the near term, and then
trends toward the multi-model consensus later in the period.

Franklin is moving northeastward (50 degrees/16 kt) within the flow
between a deep-layer trough over the northwestern Atlantic and a
subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. A somewhat faster
motion to the northeast is anticipated during the next day or so,
followed by a continued northeastward to east-northeastward motion
into early next week. Through 72 h, the updated NHC forecast lies
close to the previous prediction. As discussed with prior forecasts,
track uncertainty grows beyond day 3 regarding how much interaction
will occur between Franklin and a larger cut-off low meandering over
the eastern Atlantic. The latest NHC track has been adjusted south
of the previous forecast at days 4-5, but future adjustments could
be necessary as it still lies north of the TVCA and HCCA aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 38.7N 55.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 40.1N 52.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 02/1200Z 42.5N 47.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 03/0000Z 44.7N 43.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 03/1200Z 46.5N 39.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 04/0000Z 47.9N 34.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/1200Z 48.6N 31.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/1200Z 49.0N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/1200Z 49.5N 22.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 011448
TCMAT3

HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
1500 UTC FRI SEP 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 55.6W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT.......100NE 160SE 120SW 220NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 270SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 55.6W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 56.6W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 40.1N 52.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 42.5N 47.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 44.7N 43.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 46.5N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 170SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 47.9N 34.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 48.6N 31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 49.0N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 49.5N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.7N 55.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 011447
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

...FRANKLIN LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.7N 55.6W
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 38.7 North, longitude 55.6 West. Franklin is
moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected during the next day or so, followed
by a northeastward to east-northeastward motion into early next
week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next
day or so, followed by weakening through early next week. Franklin
is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone by tonight.

Satellite wind data indicate that hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 010856
TCDAT3

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

Franklin has a much more asymmetric appearance this morning,
indicative of the increasingly disruptive upper-wind pattern
associated with an approaching mid-latitude baroclinic zone. In
fact, the remaining deep convective mass is about 100 mi southeast
of the surface center. The initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt
and is based on a compromise of the available subjective and
objective intensity estimate techniques.

Franklin is showing signs of losing its tropical characteristics
while drier, more stable mid-level air and increasing northwesterly
shear impedes over the northwest portion of the cyclone.
Consequently, the completion of an extratropical transition is
expected later tonight or early Saturday. However, little change in
strength is forecast, and Franklin should maintain its
hurricane-force sustained winds through the weekend. By early next
week, gradual weakening is expected, which agrees with a blend of
the intensity consensus guidance and the statistical-dynamic SHIPS
models.

Franklin's initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward or
060/16 kt. An increase in forward speed toward the northeast is
forecast. At the same time, Franklin moves within the mid-latitude
steering flow between high pressure to the east, over the central
Atlantic, and an extensive baroclinic system moving out of the
Canadian Maritimes. Global model spread continues to increase
beyond day 3. Two scenarios are possible. The European models
take a southeastward track while interacting with a larger
cut-off low meandering west of the Iberian peninsula. The other
solution involves the GFS and the regional guidance which gradually
turns the cyclone northeastward to northward over the northeast
Atlantic. The official forecast track indicates a blend of the two
model clusters, lying between both, and is close to the multi-model
consensus aid.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 37.8N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 39.1N 54.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 41.2N 49.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 02/1800Z 43.5N 45.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 03/0600Z 45.7N 41.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 03/1800Z 47.2N 36.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/0600Z 48.4N 32.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/0600Z 50.3N 27.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/0600Z 51.6N 25.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 010855
TCMAT3

HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
0900 UTC FRI SEP 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 57.0W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 140SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 220SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 57.0W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 57.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 39.1N 54.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 41.2N 49.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 43.5N 45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 45.7N 41.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 170SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 47.2N 36.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 48.4N 32.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 50.3N 27.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 51.6N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.8N 57.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 010855
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

...FRANKLIN EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.8N 57.0W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 37.8 North, longitude 57.0 West. Franklin is
moving toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). A
northeastward motion at an accelerated pace is expected over the
next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further slight weakening is expected during the
next couple of days, followed by faster rate of weakening by early
next week. Franklin is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone
tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 010244
TCDAT3

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

Convection is separating from the low-level circulation of Franklin
this evening. Infrared satellite imagery show the coldest cloud
tops limited to the southeast quadrant, confirming the cyclone is
experiencing significant vertical wind shear. Subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates have continued to decrease
and range from 70-77 kt. The initial intensity has been lowered to
75 kt for this advisory.

Franklin is forecast to complete its extratropical transition during
the next day or so. However, global models indicate it will remain
a powerful system despite losing its tropical characteristics.
Therefore, the official intensity forecast shows Franklin gradually
weakening before becoming a hurricane-force extratropical cyclone.
A faster weakening trend is predicted later in the forecast period,
similar to the previous prediction and lies on the higher end of
the guidance envelope.

The hurricane is moving to the east-northeast at 13 kt. The track
reasoning remains unchanged. An acceleration generally
northeastward is expected during the next couple of days as the
hurricane is steered by the flow between a subtropical ridge over
the central Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the coast of
Atlantic Canada. The track guidance is in good agreement and little
changes have been made to the official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 36.8N 58.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 38.1N 56.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 40.0N 51.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 42.2N 47.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 03/0000Z 44.3N 43.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 03/1200Z 46.0N 39.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/0000Z 47.3N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/0000Z 50.1N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/0000Z 53.2N 25.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 010243
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

...FRANKLIN EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 58.6W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 58.6 West. Franklin is
moving toward the east-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. A little weakening is forecast during the next
day or so, followed by more significant weakening this weekend.
Franklin is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone by Friday
night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 010242
TCMAT3

HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
0300 UTC FRI SEP 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 58.6W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 140SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 210SW 310NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 58.6W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 59.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 38.1N 56.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 40.0N 51.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 42.2N 47.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 10SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 44.3N 43.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 170SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 46.0N 39.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 47.3N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 50.1N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 53.2N 25.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 58.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 312036
TCDAT3

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

The cloud pattern of Franklin has continued to erode this afternoon.
Deep convection is limited to the southeastern portion of its
circulation, as strong shear continues to negatively affect the
system. Scatterometer data from today show the hurricane is still
producing a very large area of winds greater than 50 kt, though the
resolution limitations of the instrument do not allow for a peak
intensity estimate. The conventional satellite intensity estimates
continue to decrease, and the initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt
based on a blend of the latest objective and subjective estimates.

Franklin is expected to lose tropical characteristics over the next
day or so, with strong shear continuing over the system and
intrusions of drier mid-level air into the circulation as it
accelerates deeper into the mid-latitudes. However, this will not
immediately lead to significant weakening of the system. The GFS and
ECMWF both show an enhancement of hurricane-force winds on the
western side of the storm while the system interacts with a
baroclinic system and begins extratropical transition. Thus, the
near-term intensity forecast shows little change in strength, and
Franklin appears likely to maintain hurricane-force winds through
its extratropical transition in 36 h. Thereafter, a faster weakening
trend is shown through the rest of the forecast period, which is
consistent with the latest multi-model consensus aids.

The initial motion of Franklin is east-northeastward at 65/12 kt. A
northeastward acceleration is forecast during the next couple of
days while the cyclone moves within the flow between a subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over
Atlantic Canada. From there, the track guidance generally supports a
continued northeastward motion over the northern Atlantic, and this
forecast shows a slightly faster motion beyond day 3 to reflect the
model consensus trends this cycle.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 36.0N 60.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 37.1N 57.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 38.9N 53.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 40.9N 49.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 02/1800Z 43.2N 45.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 03/0600Z 45.1N 41.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 03/1800Z 46.6N 37.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/1800Z 49.5N 31.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/1800Z 52.5N 27.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 312035
TCMAT3

HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
2100 UTC THU AUG 31 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 60.1W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 140SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 220SW 310NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 60.1W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 61.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 37.1N 57.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 38.9N 53.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 40.9N 49.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 10SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 43.2N 45.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 170SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 45.1N 41.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 46.6N 37.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 49.5N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 52.5N 27.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N 60.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 312035
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

...FRANKLIN EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.0N 60.1W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 60.1 West. Franklin is
moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. A little weakening is forecast during the next
day or so, followed by more significant weakening this weekend.
Franklin is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone by Friday
night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 311456
TCDAT3

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

Satellite imagery indicates that Franklin continues to battle
strong northerly shear associated with the outflow from Idalia.
Recent microwave data confirm its inner core has eroded, with deep
convection confined to the southeastern portion of the circulation.
There is a large spread in the recent intensity estimates, with
higher objective estimates than the consensus T4.5/5.0 Dvorak
classifications from SAB and TAFB. Given this uncertainty, the
initial intensity is held at 85 kt for this advisory.

Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days
while Franklin contends with the negative impacts of deep-layer
shear. However, the cyclone is expected to remain at or near
hurricane strength while increased baroclinic forcing and
interaction with the upper trough support its extratropical
transition. The GFS and ECMWF show fronts extending into Franklin's
circulation by 48 h, likely signaling completion of this process.
Therefore, the NHC forecast shows Franklin becoming a powerful
extratropical cyclone in 48 h. Thereafter, further weakening is
forecast while the cyclone moves deeper into the mid-latitudes, in
agreement with the latest global guidance.

Franklin is moving east-northeastward (70/12 kt) within the flow
between a deep-layer trough moving off the coast of the northeastern
U.S. and eastern Canada and a subtropical ridge to the east. The
latest track guidance remains in very good agreement that Franklin
will accelerate toward the east-northeast or northeast during the
next couple of days. The NHC track forecast in the near term is
essentially an update of the previous one and remains close to the
TVCN and HCCA aids. Track model solutions diverge beyond day 3
regarding the track and speed of motion for the extratropical
cyclone over the northern Atlantic, and in general the latest NHC
forecast lies between the consensus aids and ensemble means.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 35.1N 61.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 36.3N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 37.8N 55.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 39.7N 51.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 42.0N 47.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 03/0000Z 44.2N 43.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 03/1200Z 45.9N 39.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/1200Z 48.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/1200Z 50.5N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 311455
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

...FRANKLIN CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
...FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 61.6W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 35.1 North, longitude 61.6 West. Franklin is
moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A faster
east-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected over the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin should
continue moving away from Bermuda today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days, and
Franklin is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone by this
weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 311455
TCMAT3

HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
1500 UTC THU AUG 31 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 61.6W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE 130SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 220SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 61.6W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 62.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 36.3N 59.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 37.8N 55.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 130SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 39.7N 51.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 42.0N 47.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 15SE 25SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 44.2N 43.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 45.9N 39.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 160SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 48.0N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 50.5N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N 61.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 310842
TCDAT3

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

Franklin continues to slowly succumb to the increasingly
unfavorable conditions the large hurricane is embedded in. The large
eye that had been evident over the last day or so is no longer
observed on infrared satellite imagery, likely due to 25-30 kt of
northerly shear affecting the convective structure which now favors
the southern side of the storm. This observation is also consistent
with the radar reflectivity returns from the Bermuda radar. With
that said, both the subjective and objective intensity estimates
this morning still support an intensity in the 85-90 kt range. Thus
Franklin's intensity will remain 85 kt this advisory, though this
may be generous.

Franklin continues to move to the east-northeast this morning at an
estimated 070/12 kt. As previously discussed, the hurricane is being
steered by the flow between a subtropical ridge to its southeast and
a trough now ejecting eastward out of the northeastern U.S. After
days of large track spread, the guidance this cycle is in better
agreement this morning, showing a continued east-northeast or
northeastward motion with gradual acceleration. The latest NHC
track forecast is not that much changed from the prior one, though
with a bit more acceleration towards the end of the forecast
period, trending towards the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

With continued northerly shear expected to persist another 24 hours,
Franklin should continue to weaken in the short-term. There may be a
brief period between 24-48 h where the shear temporarily decreases
as the hurricane becomes positioned in the right entrance region of
a jet streak as it interacts with a mid-latitude trough. This is why
the intensity forecast shows the weakening trend briefly pausing in
36-48 h. However, this baroclinic forcing will also likely hasten
its transition into an extratropical cyclone, with the latest
forecast now showing this being completed by 60 h, consistent with
simulated-IR imagery from the GFS and ECMWF at that time.

Now that Franklin is moving further away from Bermuda, the
Meteorological Service of Bermuda has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for the island.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are occurring along the
east coast of the United States and Bermuda. These conditions are
expected to continue during the next day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 34.9N 63.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 35.8N 60.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 37.2N 57.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 38.7N 53.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 40.8N 49.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 43.3N 45.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 03/0600Z 45.5N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/0600Z 47.5N 34.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/0600Z 50.1N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 310841
TCMAT3

HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
0900 UTC THU AUG 31 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 63.2W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 50SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE 130SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..260NE 240SE 240SW 260NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 63.2W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 63.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 35.8N 60.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 40SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 37.2N 57.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 130SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 38.7N 53.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 35SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 40.8N 49.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 160SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 43.3N 45.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 45.5N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 150SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 47.5N 34.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 50.1N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.9N 63.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 310842
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

...FRANKLIN MOVING FURTHER AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.9N 63.2W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 34.9 North, longitude 63.2 West. Franklin is
moving toward the east-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h) and a
general east-northeastward to northeastward motion should continue
over the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of
Franklin should continue moving away from Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions have diminished over Bermuda.

SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are
affecting Bermuda and the east coast of the United States. These
conditions are expected to continue during the next day or two.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 310549
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 42A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
200 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

...FRANKLIN MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS MORNING...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 63.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 63.9 West. Franklin is
moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
general motion should continue through Friday followed by a turn to
the northeast on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Franklin is expected to continue moving away from Bermuda today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). A weather station at the Bermuda airport recently
reported a sustained wind of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a gust of 47 mph
(74 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring on Bermuda but
should begin subsiding later this morning.

SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are
affecting Bermuda and the east coast of the United States. These
conditions are expected to continue during the next day or two.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 310251
TCDAT3

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2023

Satellite imagery indicates the eye of Franklin is beginning to lose
its definition and become cloud-filled. Radar imagery from Bermuda
shows outer rain bands have been crossing the island this evening,
bringing sustained tropical-storm-force winds and gusty conditions.
The initial intensity estimate for this advisory has been lowered to
85 kt based on a blend of the CI and Final T-numbers from both TAFB
and SAB.

Franklin has turned to the east-northeast at an estimated 12 kt,
passing to the north of Bermuda. The hurricane is moving in the
flow between a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic and a
trough over the northeastern U.S. Track guidance in the first 48 h
remains decently-clustered, showing Franklin continuing generally
east-northeastward with an increased forward speed. By 60 hours
and beyond, there is a larger spread in the guidance as Franklin
turns northeastward while it interacts with the upper-level trough.
The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous prediction and
lies between the simple consensus aid, TVCN, and the corrected
consensus aid, HCCA.

Based on the latest satellite trends, Franklin is continuing to
weaken in an environment of significant northerly vertical wind
shear. Only minor adjustments have been made to the latest official
forecast, which shows gradual weakening through 60 hours as the
vertical wind shear is expected to increase. By day 3, Franklin is
expected to become a strong extratropical cyclone, though this could
occur even sooner.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions, mainly in gusts, are occuring on
Bermuda this evening while Franklin passes north of the island.

2. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are occurring along the
east coast of the United States. These conditions are expected to
continue during the next day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 34.6N 64.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 35.3N 62.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 36.5N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 37.7N 55.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 39.2N 52.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 41.0N 49.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 42.7N 46.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/0000Z 45.9N 41.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/0000Z 50.1N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 310249
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2023

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING IN BERMUDA AS FRANKLIN
PASSES TO THE NORTH...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.6N 64.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 64.5 West. Franklin is
moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
general motion should continue through Friday followed by a turn to
the northeast on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Franklin is expected to begin moving away from Bermuda tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). A weather station at the Bermuda airport recently
reported a sustained wind of 37 mph (59 km/h) and a gust of 50 mph
(80 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring on Bermuda but
should begin subsiding by tomorrow morning.

SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are
affecting Bermuda and the east coast of the United States. These
conditions are expected to continue during the next day or two.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 310247
TCMAT3

HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 64.5W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 40SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE 130SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 64.5W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 65.2W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 35.3N 62.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 40SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 130SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 36.5N 59.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 130SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 37.7N 55.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 35SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 130SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 39.2N 52.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 41.0N 49.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 42.7N 46.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 160SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 45.9N 41.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 50.1N 35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N 64.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 31/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 302350
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 41A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
800 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2023

...SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS REACH BERMUDA AS FRANKLIN
PASSES TO THE NORTH...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 65.2W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Franklin was located
near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 65.2 West. Franklin is moving
toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general
motion should continue through Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Franklin is expected to begin moving away from Bermuda
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). A weather station at the Bermuda airport recently
reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust of 52 mph
(83 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring on Bermuda and will
continue tonight.

SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are
affecting Bermuda and the east coast of the United States. These
conditions are expected to continue during the next day or two.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 302040
TCDAT3

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2023

The cloud pattern of Franklin has become oblong this afternoon,
likely due to increasing westerly shear associated with Idalia's
upper-level outflow. A ring of cold infrared cloud tops still
surrounds the large eye of the hurricane, which is now somewhat
elliptical in shape. The initial intensity is held at 90 kt, which
is supported by a T5.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB and UW-CIMSS
objective estimates between 85-90 kt. Radar images from Bermuda show
an outer rain band is spreading over the island, which will likely
result in gusty winds while it passes over the region.

Franklin is moving northeastward (55/11 kt) between a deep-layer
trough over the northeastern United States and a high pressure ridge
over the central Atlantic. The track guidance remains in good
agreement on the hurricane moving generally east-northeastward and
away from Bermuda during the next couple of days, and little change
was necessary to this part of the forecast. There are still
along-track differences in the global models regarding Franklin's
track at days 3-5 related to its interaction with the upper trough.
But, there is at least general agreement that the cyclone will turn
northeastward after it merges with a frontal system over the
northern Atlantic. The updated NHC track forecast remains relatively
close to the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) aid during
this period.

The satellite structure of Franklin is gradually degrading, and the
increasing shear that is forecast should keep the hurricane on a
weakening trend. The updated intensity forecast is fairly similar to
the previous one, with the most notable change being that Franklin
is now forecast to become a powerful extratropical cyclone by 72 h.
Some of the global guidance suggests this could occur even sooner,
so future forecast adjustments may be necessary. Although weakening
is forecast, the wind field is likely to grow in size as Franklin
moves deeper into the mid-latitudes.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions, mainly in gusts, are expected on
Bermuda into this evening while Franklin passes north of the island.

2. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are occurring along the
east coast of the United States. These conditions are expected to
continue during the next day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 34.2N 65.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 34.9N 63.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 35.8N 60.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 36.9N 57.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 38.1N 53.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 39.7N 50.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 41.6N 47.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/1800Z 45.0N 42.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/1800Z 50.0N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 302039
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2023

...OUTER RAIN BANDS OF FRANKLIN SPREADING OVER BERMUDA...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 65.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Franklin was located
near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 65.9 West. Franklin is moving
toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). An east-northwestward
motion is expected to begin tonight and continue through Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to pass to
the north of Bermuda through this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). A weather station at the Bermuda airport recently reported
a sustained wind of 37 mph (59 km/h) and a gust of 51 mph (81 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in gusts, are occurring on
Bermuda and will continue into this evening.

SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are
affecting Bermuda and the east coast of the United States. These
conditions are expected to continue during the next day or two.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 302038
TCMAT3

HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
2100 UTC WED AUG 30 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 65.9W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
EYE DIAMETER 45 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 40SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE 130SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 65.9W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 66.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 34.9N 63.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 40SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 130SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 35.8N 60.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 130SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 36.9N 57.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 35SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 130SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 38.1N 53.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 39.7N 50.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 41.6N 47.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 160SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 45.0N 42.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 50.0N 37.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 65.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 31/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 301756
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 40A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
200 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING ON BERMUDA...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 66.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 66.6 West. Franklin is
moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A gradual turn
toward the east-northeast is expected tonight, with a slightly
faster east-northeastward motion through Friday. On the forecast
track, the center of Franklin is expected to pass to the northwest
of Bermuda through this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km). An elevated weather station at the National Museum of
Bermuda recently reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a
gust of 62 mph (100 km/h). A weather station at the Bermuda airport
recently reported a 2-minute average wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a
gust of 50 mph (81 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring on Bermuda and will
continue into this evening.

SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are
affecting Bermuda and the east coast of the United States. These
conditions are expected to continue during the next couple of days.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 301446
TCDAT3

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2023

The large eye of Franklin has become a bit ragged in recent
satellite images. Upper-level outflow from Hurricane Idalia
continues to impinge on the western side of Franklin's circulation,
and recent SSMIS microwave data show a thinner ring of inner core
convection on the western side of the eye, though the eyewall
remains closed. The overall satellite presentation has degraded some
since yesterday, and this is reflected in the latest objective and
subjective satellite estimates. The initial intensity is lowered
slightly to 90 kt, based on consensus T5.0/90 kt Dvorak estimates
from SAB and TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT and AiDT estimates around 85-90
kt. Radar data from Bermuda reveal an outer band of the hurricane is
passing near the island, and tropical storm conditions are expected
to spread over the area within the next few hours.

The flow between a deep-layer trough over the eastern United States
and Canada and a high pressure ridge over the central Atlantic is
steering Franklin northeastward (50/11 kt). The aforementioned
trough is forecast to move eastward during the next couple of days,
and the flow ahead of this feature should cause Franklin to move
slightly faster toward the east-northeast. Little change was made to
this portion of the forecast. It is still unclear whether or not
Franklin will become completely captured by the trough, which
introduces greater uncertainty in the days 3-5 track forecast. The
GFS favors a faster northeastward motion with greater trough
interaction, while the ECMWF and UKMET keep Franklin on a slower
eastward track before it is steered deeper into the mid-latitudes.
The updated NHC forecast follows the consensus trends and is again
slower than the previous prediction beyond 72 h. Franklin is
forecast to become extratropical by 96 h, although this timing
largely depends on the extent of trough interaction.

Increasing northwesterly shear is expected over Franklin during the
next couple of days. This should induce at least gradual weakening
in the near term, though the tropical-storm-force wind field is
likely to expand as the system accelerates and gains latitude. The
updated track forecast brings Franklin over sub-26C waters in
about 72 h, with extratropical transition forecast to occur by 96
h. Note that this timing largely depends on the extent of trough
interaction that occurs in the coming days, so future adjustments
could be necessary.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda today while
Franklin makes its closest approach to the island.

2. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are occurring along the
east coast of the United States. These conditions are expected to
continue during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 33.6N 67.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 34.4N 65.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 35.2N 62.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 36.1N 58.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 37.2N 55.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 38.4N 52.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 40.1N 49.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 44.5N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/1200Z 49.1N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 301445
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2023

...OUTER BANDS FROM FRANKLIN PASSING NEAR BERMUDA...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 67.1W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM NW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case beginning
within the next few hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 67.1 West. Franklin is
moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A gradual turn
toward the east-northeast is expected later today or tonight, with a
slightly faster east-northeastward motion through Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to pass to the
northwest of Bermuda today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km). An elevated weather station at the National Museum of
Bermuda recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a
gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). The L.F. Wade International Airport on
Bermuda recently reported a wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda today.

SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip currents generated by Franklin
are affecting Bermuda and the east coast of the United States. These
conditions are expected to continue during the next couple of days.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 301444
TCMAT3

HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 67.1W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 40SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 140SE 120SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 67.1W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 67.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 34.4N 65.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 35.2N 62.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 45SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 130SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 36.1N 58.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 130SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 37.2N 55.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 140SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.4N 52.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 40.1N 49.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 160SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 44.5N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 49.1N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 67.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 301153
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 39A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
800 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2023

...LARGE FRANKLIN EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
BERMUDA LATER TODAY...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 67.6W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case beginning
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Franklin was located
near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 67.6 West. Franklin is moving
toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today. On Thursday, Franklin is forecast to
turn toward the east-northeast. On the forecast track, the center of
Franklin is expected to pass to the northwest of Bermuda today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip currents generated by Franklin
are affecting Bermuda and the east coast of the United States. These
conditions are expected to continue during the next couple of days.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach Bermuda this
morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 300847
TCDAT3

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2023

Franklin has a large eye this morning since completing its eyewall
replacement cycle yesterday. The estimated diameter from satellite
data is about 50 n mi. With that said, there are some subtle signs
that vertical wind shear over the system has begun to increase. The
hurricane's outflow has become restricted in the western side of the
storm, related to the outflow of Idalia spreading quickly towards
it. Intensity estimates have been gradually decreasing, and the
initial intensity was lowered to 95 kt this advisory. This intensity
lies roughly in between the higher TAFB and lower SAB subjective
estimates, and is very close to the most recent ADT and D-MINT
estimates provided by UW-CIMSS.

Franklin appears to be accelerating ever so slightly to the
northeast, with the motion of its large eye estimated at 040/11 kt.
This motion is expected to continue today with a turn to the
east-northeast in about 24-36 h. However, once again the guidance
this cycle has trended much slower compared to the previous
one. The ECMWF, which had been on the slow and south end of the
guidance envelope for days now, related to it missing the
mid-latitude trough capture, is no longer alone, with the latest GFS
forecast substantially slower and also missing an initial trough
capture. The track forecast has thus been slowed down again from the
prior cycle, but since most of this track adjustment was in the
along- and not across-track direction, it actually lies pretty much
on top of the prior NHC track, just slower. This current forecast
may need to be adjusted further in subsequent cycles, as suggested
by the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. Even though the center of
Franklin is still forecast to pass to the northwest of Bermuda later
today, the large area of tropical-storm-force winds associated with
the hurricane to its southeast are expected to extend near or over
the island, where a tropical storm warning remains in place.

Intensity-wise, Franklin should gradually weaken early on, while
shear remains fairly low, but then more quickly as northwesterly
shear increases to between 20-30 kt from 24-48 h. Based on the
latest forecast track, it may take a bit longer for Franklin to
become an extratropical cyclone, and this is now delayed to day 4 in
the latest NHC intensity forecast. This intensity forecast is in
best agreement with the HCCA consensus aid.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda this morning,
when Franklin is forecast to make its closest approach to the
island.

2. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are occurring along the
east coast of the United States. These conditions are expected to
continue during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 33.0N 68.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 34.0N 66.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 35.0N 63.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 35.8N 60.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 37.0N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 38.0N 53.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 40.0N 49.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 44.1N 44.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/0600Z 49.0N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 300845
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2023

...FRANKLIN IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND IS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.0N 68.2W
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case beginning
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 68.2 West. Franklin is
moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today. On Thursday, Franklin is forecast to
turn toward the east-northeast. On the forecast track, the center
of Franklin is expected to pass to the northwest of Bermuda later
today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next
several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip currents generated by Franklin
are already affecting Bermuda and the east coast of the United
States. These conditions are expected to continue during the next
several days.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach Bermuda this
morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 300844
TCMAT3

HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
0900 UTC WED AUG 30 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 68.2W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 40SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 140SE 120SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 230SE 220SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 68.2W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 68.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 34.0N 66.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 45SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 35.0N 63.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 45SE 35SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 130SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 35.8N 60.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 45SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 130SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 37.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 38.0N 53.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 165SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 40.0N 49.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 160SW 190NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 44.1N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 49.0N 43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 68.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 300546
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
200 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN BERMUDA
BEGINNING LATER TODAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ONGOING ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 68.7W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case beginning
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 68.7 West. Franklin is
moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion
with a faster forward speed is expected through today. On Thursday,
Franklin is forecast to turn toward the east-northeast at a faster
forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is
expected to pass to the northwest of Bermuda later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Franklin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is forecast over the next
several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip currents generated by Franklin
are already affecting Bermuda and the east coast of the United
States. These conditions are expected to continue during the next
several days.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach Bermuda this
morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 300258
TCDAT3

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 29 2023

Cloud tops are beginning to warm around Franklin's rather large eye.
A GMI microwave pass at 0136 UTC showed that the southern edge of
the eyewall was beginning to erode. The hurricane passed over NOAA
buoy 41048 around 00 UTC and measured a central pressure of 955 mb
with 20 kt of wind. The initial intensity has been lowered to 100
kt for this advisory and is closest to the TAFB estimate.

Franklin is moving to the northeast at 10 kt. This motion is
expected to continue for the next day or so as the hurricane moves
around the northwest periphery of a subtropical ridge. Beyond 24 h,
Franklin is expected to begin interacting with a trough moving off
the northeast coast of the US and turn to the east-northeast with an
increase in forward speed. However, global model guidance has
significantly decreased the forward motion of the storm and the
along-track position uncertainty remains higher than normal. The
new official track forecast has shifted slightly south of the
previous prediction and has slowed noticeably. Even though the
center of Franklin is forecast to pass to the northwest of Bermuda
on Wednesday, tropical-storm-force winds associated with the
hurricane are expected to extend well to the southeast of the
center.

Franklin appears to be starting a gradual weakening trend. In a
day so, model guidance suggests the vertical wind shear should
increase as it gets caught in the upper-level trough. Franklin is
still expected to complete its extratropical transition around day
3 and dissipate by the end of the forecast period. The NHC
intensity forecast has been lowered slightly from the previous
cycle and remains close the various consensus aids.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
Wednesday morning, when Franklin is forecast to make its closest
approach to the island.

2. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are occurring along the
east coast of the United States. These conditions are expected to
continue during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 32.3N 69.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 33.5N 67.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 34.7N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 35.8N 61.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 36.8N 58.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 38.3N 53.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 40.3N 49.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/0000Z 45.2N 41.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 300255
TCMAT3

HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
0300 UTC WED AUG 30 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 69.0W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
EYE DIAMETER 45 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 210SE 190SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 69.0W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 69.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 33.5N 67.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 34.7N 65.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 35.8N 61.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 36.8N 58.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 140SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 38.3N 53.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 140SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 40.3N 49.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 140SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 45.2N 41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 69.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 300255
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 29 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN BERMUDA
BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 69.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 69.0 West. Franklin is
moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion
with a faster forward speed is expected through Wednesday. On
Thursday, Franklin is expected to turn to the east-northeast and
continue to increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the
center of Franklin is expected to pass to the northwest of Bermuda
on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Franklin is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is forecast
during the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip currents generated by Franklin
are already affecting Bermuda and the east coast of the United
States. These conditions are expected to continue during the next
several days.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by
Wednesday morning, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 292355
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
800 PM AST Tue Aug 29 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN BERMUDA
BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 69.4W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 69.4 West. Franklin is
moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion
with a faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to pass to
the northwest of Bermuda on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Franklin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is forecast during the next
several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km). NOAA Buoy 41048, located a few hundred miles west
of Bermuda, recently reported a sustained wind of 83 mph (133 km/h)
and a gust of 101 mph (162 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip currents generated by Franklin
are already affecting Bermuda and the east coast of the United
States. These conditions are expected to continue during the next
several days.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by
Wednesday morning, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 292045
TCDAT3

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM AST Tue Aug 29 2023

Franklin has completed an eyewall replacement cycle this afternoon.
This was confirmed by an AMSR microwave pass at 1748Z, showing that
the outer eyewall has now become the dominant feature and the inner
eyewall has completely collapsed. In the last few hours, infrared
imagery has depicted cold cloud tops in the deep convection within
the new eyewall. The subjective and objective satellite estimates
have decreased slightly throughout the day, but still remain around
a T5.5 from TAFB and CIMSS ADT. Given these satellite estimates and
the structure depicted from microwave imagery, the initial intensity
for this advisory will remain 110 kt.

Franklin is moving northeastward at around 10 kt. This northeastward
motion is expected to continue for the next few days with an
increase in forward speed as Franklin rounds the edge of the
subtropical ridge and gets caught in the southwesterly flow ahead of
a mid-latitude trough moving off the northeast U.S. coast and
Atlantic Canada. There still remains a good amount of spread in the
track guidance with both along- and cross-track differences beyond
48 h. The NHC track is near the previous advisory and lies in the
middle of the guidance envelope, close to the consensus aids. Even
though the center of Franklin is forecast to pass to the northwest
of Bermuda on Wednesday, tropical-storm-force winds associated with
the hurricane are expected to extend well to the southeast of the
center.

Franklin could fluctuate in intensity now that it has completed the
eyewall replacement cycle. But, it should gradually weaken in the
near term, as it begins to move northward over cooler waters, with
some increase in northwesterly wind shear. Vertical wind shear is
forecast to increase further in about 36 h, with further weakening
anticipated. The guidance this cycle has come into better agreement
with the timing of extratropical transition in about 72 h, and this
is now reflected in the latest NHC forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
Wednesday morning, when Franklin is forecast to make its closest
approach to the island.

2. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are occurring along the
east coast of the United States. These conditions are expected to
continue during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 31.4N 69.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 32.7N 68.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 34.3N 66.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 35.4N 63.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 36.6N 59.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 37.9N 55.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 40.6N 50.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1800Z 46.0N 40.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 292044
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM AST Tue Aug 29 2023

...FRANKLIN REMAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ONGOING ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 69.9W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 69.9 West. Franklin is
moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue with a faster forward speed expected during
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is
expected to pass to the northwest of Bermuda on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Franklin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is forecast during the next
several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km). NOAA Buoy 41048 west of Bermuda recently reported a
sustained wind of 58 mph (94 km/h) and a gust of 83 mph (133 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip currents generated by Franklin
are already affecting Bermuda and the east coast of the United
States. These conditions are expected to continue during the next
several days.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by
Wednesday morning, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 292044
TCMAT3

HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 69.9W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 69.9W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 70.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 32.7N 68.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 34.3N 66.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 35.4N 63.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 36.6N 59.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 140SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 37.9N 55.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 140SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 40.6N 50.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 140SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 46.0N 40.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 69.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 291746
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ONGOING ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 70.2W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...200 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 70.2 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
north-northeastward to northeastward motion with a faster forward
speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track,
the center of Franklin is expected to pass to the northwest of
Bermuda on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (200 km/h) with higher
gusts. Franklin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is forecast during the next
several days, but Franklin will remain a hurricane through late this
week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km). NOAA Buoy 41048 west of Bermuda recently reported a
sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust of 59 mph (95 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip currents generated by Franklin
are already affecting Bermuda and the east coast of the United
States. These conditions are expected to continue during the next
several days.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by
Wednesday morning, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 291612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 29.08.2023

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 128.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2023 0 19.5N 128.3W 1002 34
0000UTC 30.08.2023 12 18.8N 131.3W 1004 30
1200UTC 30.08.2023 24 18.5N 133.8W 1006 28
0000UTC 31.08.2023 36 18.6N 135.5W 1007 28
1200UTC 31.08.2023 48 18.8N 137.1W 1008 28
0000UTC 01.09.2023 60 18.8N 138.5W 1009 26
1200UTC 01.09.2023 72 18.7N 139.4W 1010 23
0000UTC 02.09.2023 84 18.4N 140.2W 1010 25
1200UTC 02.09.2023 96 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90C ANALYSED POSITION : 7.5N 151.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP902023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2023 0 7.5N 151.6W 1008 23
0000UTC 30.08.2023 12 7.4N 152.9W 1008 24
1200UTC 30.08.2023 24 6.9N 155.2W 1008 24
0000UTC 31.08.2023 36 6.4N 157.0W 1007 24
1200UTC 31.08.2023 48 6.4N 158.7W 1007 23
0000UTC 01.09.2023 60 7.5N 160.3W 1006 25
1200UTC 01.09.2023 72 9.2N 161.1W 1007 27
0000UTC 02.09.2023 84 10.6N 162.7W 1007 30
1200UTC 02.09.2023 96 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.6N 51.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2023 0 27.6N 51.6W 1018 20
0000UTC 30.08.2023 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE IDALIA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.6N 84.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2023 0 23.6N 84.6W 986 60
0000UTC 30.08.2023 12 26.7N 85.1W 984 49
1200UTC 30.08.2023 24 29.3N 84.3W 978 51
0000UTC 31.08.2023 36 31.7N 82.3W 985 43
1200UTC 31.08.2023 48 33.3N 79.2W 992 41
0000UTC 01.09.2023 60 33.5N 76.0W 995 46
1200UTC 01.09.2023 72 33.0N 73.2W 999 43
0000UTC 02.09.2023 84 31.8N 71.2W 1001 41
1200UTC 02.09.2023 96 30.8N 69.7W 1002 39
0000UTC 03.09.2023 108 30.3N 68.2W 1000 34
1200UTC 03.09.2023 120 31.3N 65.6W 997 38
0000UTC 04.09.2023 132 31.5N 63.6W 995 39
1200UTC 04.09.2023 144 32.8N 61.0W 998 40
0000UTC 05.09.2023 156 35.5N 58.9W 1001 41
1200UTC 05.09.2023 168 38.9N 59.4W 1000 43

HURRICANE FRANKLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 30.3N 70.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2023 0 30.3N 70.6W 932 103
0000UTC 30.08.2023 12 31.7N 69.6W 945 85
1200UTC 30.08.2023 24 33.2N 67.9W 950 86
0000UTC 31.08.2023 36 34.4N 65.2W 952 81
1200UTC 31.08.2023 48 34.9N 62.4W 962 76
0000UTC 01.09.2023 60 35.0N 59.7W 974 60
1200UTC 01.09.2023 72 34.5N 57.0W 980 56
0000UTC 02.09.2023 84 34.2N 55.3W 983 45
1200UTC 02.09.2023 96 34.5N 54.1W 984 46
0000UTC 03.09.2023 108 35.9N 53.2W 984 43
1200UTC 03.09.2023 120 39.0N 51.8W 983 51
0000UTC 04.09.2023 132 43.8N 49.2W 974 61
1200UTC 04.09.2023 144 47.8N 45.5W 975 46
0000UTC 05.09.2023 156 51.4N 39.0W 979 42
1200UTC 05.09.2023 168 52.2N 31.6W 983 38

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 20.3N 27.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.09.2023 72 20.3N 27.6W 1009 32
0000UTC 02.09.2023 84 22.5N 28.7W 1008 38
1200UTC 02.09.2023 96 23.7N 30.2W 1009 32
0000UTC 03.09.2023 108 24.7N 30.7W 1011 30
1200UTC 03.09.2023 120 26.5N 32.8W 1012 31
0000UTC 04.09.2023 132 26.9N 34.2W 1013 28
1200UTC 04.09.2023 144 28.0N 35.7W 1014 28
0000UTC 05.09.2023 156 29.2N 36.8W 1014 25
1200UTC 05.09.2023 168 29.8N 38.7W 1014 26


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 291612

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 291449
TCDAT3

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Visible, infrared, and microwave satellite imagery indicates that
Franklin is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle with an outer
concentric band becoming more dominant. The inner eyewall has become
a little more ragged, and has started to collapse on the northern
side. A 1137z 91GHz/37GHz SSMIS microwave pass confirmed the outer
eyewall is becoming more dominant as well. The subjective and
objective Dvorak estimates were in fairly good agreement this cycle,
with a data-T of 5.5 and Final-T of 6.0 from both TAFB and UW-CIMSS
ADT. Given the ongoing inner structural changes and the slightly
weaker appearance on satellite, the initial intensity for this
advisory lowered to 115 kt for this advisory.

Franklin is moving north-northeastward at around 10 kt. A more
northeastward motion is expected later today as the hurricane rounds
the edge of the subtropical ridge and gets caught in the
southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving off the
northeast U.S. coast and Atlantic Canada. There still remains a good
amount of spread in the track guidance envelope with the GFS faster
and further north, and the ECMWF slower and further south. The NHC
track lies in the middle of the guidance, near the consensus aids
TVCA and HCCA. Even though the center of Franklin is forecast to
pass to the northwest of Bermuda on Wednesday, tropical-storm-force
winds associated with the hurricane are expected to extend well to
the southeast of the center.

The intensity forecast remains similar to the previous forecast.
Franklin is expected to continue weakening, as it begins to move
northward over cooler waters. ECMWF and GFS SHIPS guidance also
forecast the vertical wind shear to increase over the hurricane in
about 36 h. The current NHC forecast has Franklin becoming
extratropical in 4 days. There is some guidance, including the GFS,
that have this transition occurring a little faster, while the
ECMWF is a little slower with this transition.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
Wednesday morning, when Franklin is forecast to make its closest
approach to the island.

2. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are occurring along the
east coast of the United States. These conditions are expected to
continue during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 30.8N 70.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 32.0N 69.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 33.7N 67.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 35.3N 64.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 36.9N 60.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 39.0N 55.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 41.3N 50.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 46.9N 42.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1200Z 53.6N 34.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 291447
TCMAT3

HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
1500 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 70.4W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 70.4W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 70.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 32.0N 69.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 33.7N 67.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 45SE 35SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 35.3N 64.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 45SE 35SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 36.9N 60.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 140SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 39.0N 55.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 150SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 41.3N 50.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 160SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 46.9N 42.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 53.6N 34.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 70.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 29/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 291448
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ONGOING ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 70.4W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 70.4 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
north-northeastward to northeastward motion with a faster forward
speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track,
the center of Franklin is expected to pass to the northwest of
Bermuda on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Franklin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is forecast during the next
several days, but Franklin will remain a hurricane through late
this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 941 mb (27.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip currents generated by Franklin
are already affecting Bermuda and the east coast of the United
States. These conditions are expected to continue during the next
several days.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by
Wednesday morning, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 291150
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ONGOING ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 70.7W
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 70.7 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
north-northeastward to northeastward motion with a faster forward
speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track,
the center of Franklin is expected to pass well to the northwest of
Bermuda on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (210 km/h)
with higher gusts. Franklin is still a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is forecast
during the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 941 mb (27.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip currents generated by Franklin
are already affecting Bermuda and the coast of the southeast United
States. These conditions are expected to spread northward along the
east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada later today into
Wednesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda by
Wednesday morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 290854
TCDAT3

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Near the time of the prior advisory, we received a GPM microwave
pass at 0231 UTC, strongly suggesting the initial stages of an
eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) were underway. This observation is
also supported by the recent trends on infrared satellite imagery,
which show the coldest cloud tops relative to Franklin's warm eye
becoming more focused towards outer concentric bands seen earlier on
microwave imagery. Finally, a recently received 0635 UTC AMSR2
microwave pass confirms the ERC is ongoing, with the outer eyewall
already starting to become dominant on the 89-GHz channel. All this
data means is that the hurricane is likely past its peak intensity,
but may be broadening its inner-core wind field as it undergoes this
structural change. Subjective final T-number intensity estimates
were 6.0/115 kt from both TAFB and SAB, with UW-CIMSS ADT also at
T6.0/115 kt. However since the earlier aircraft data showed that
Franklin was stronger than the satellite signature would suggest,
the initial intensity is only being lowered to 120 kt for this
advisory.

Franklin is now beginning to lose longitude again, with the latest
estimated motion at 015/8 kt. A further turn to the northeast is
expected later today as the hurricane becomes caught in the flow
between a subtropical ridge positioned to its southeast and an
approaching mid-latitude trough ejecting out of Canada from the
northwest. Ultimately, this trough is still forecast to capture
Franklin, though the along-track spread remains high beyond the next
48 h. Once again the GFS and ECMWF are book-ending the track
guidance this cycle, with the GFS the fastest and furthest north,
and the ECMWF the slowest and furthest south, missing the trough
connection. The ensemble guidance also continues to exhibit large
spread between these scnerios after the next 48 h. The NHC track
forecast continues to favor a solution closest to the the consensus
aids TVCA and HCCA, which trended a bit slower this cycle. On the
forecast track, Franklin should bypass Bermuda well to the northwest
on Wednesday, but tropical-storm-force winds associated with
Franklin will come much closer to the island due to the hurricane's
large and expanding wind field.

With the ongoing eyewall replacement cycle, Franklin is likely past
its peak intensity. It is forecast to continue weakening, especially
as the hurricane also begins to move over cooler waters. In
addition, shear out of the northwest increases markedly in both the
GFS and ECMWF forecasts after 48 hours, which should hasten the
weakening process. The latest NHC intensity forecast is again a bit
lower than the previous cycle, but remains somewhat higher than the
consensus aids which show a slightly faster rate of weakening. There
are still timing differences in the guidance regarding exactly when
Franklin will become extratropical. The day 4 extratropical
transition time frame in the NHC official forecast is a compromise
between the faster GFS and slower ECMWF solutions.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
Wednesday morning, when Franklin is forecast to make its closest
approach to the island.

2. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are occurring along the
coast of the southeast United States. These conditions are
expected to spread northward along the remainder of the U.S.
east coast, Atlantic Canada, and Bermuda later today into Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 30.2N 70.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 31.3N 70.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 33.0N 68.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 34.8N 66.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 36.7N 62.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 31/1800Z 38.6N 58.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 41.4N 53.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 48.2N 41.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/0600Z 59.1N 27.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 290852
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...FRANKLIN REMAINS A FORMIDABLE CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ONGOING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COASTLINE AND EXPECTED TO SPREAD
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 70.8W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 70.8 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
north-northeastward to northeastward motion with a faster forward
speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track,
the center of Franklin is expected to pass well to the northwest of
Bermuda on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 140 mph (220 km/h)
with higher gusts. However, Franklin is still a formidable category
4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady
weakening is forecast during the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb (27.61 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip currents generated by
Franklin are already affecting Bermuda and the coast of the
southeast United States. These conditions are expected to spread
northward along the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada later today into Wednesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda by
Wednesday morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 290851
TCMAT3

HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
0900 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 70.8W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 70.8W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 71.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.3N 70.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 33.0N 68.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 45SE 35SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 34.8N 66.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 45SE 35SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 36.7N 62.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 140SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 38.6N 58.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 150SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 41.4N 53.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 160SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 48.2N 41.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 59.1N 27.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 70.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 29/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 290538
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...FRANKLIN REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ARE OCCURING ALONG THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 71.0W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...235 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 71.0 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A north-northeastward
to northeastward motion with a faster forward speed is expected
during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of
Franklin is expected to pass well to the west of Bermuda on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (235 km/h) with higher
gusts. Franklin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening should begin later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 930 mb (27.46 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip currents generated by
Franklin are already affecting Bermuda and the coast of the
southeast United States. These conditions are expected to spread
northward along the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada during the next couple of days.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda by
Wednesday morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 290236
TCDAT3

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

Franklin remains a powerful category 4 hurricane. Satellite images
show a clear and circular eye with a solid and symmetric ring of
deep convection surrounding that feature. The Air Force Hurricane
Hunters have investigated Franklin during the past few hours and
found 700-mb flight-level winds as high as 140 kt and maximum
surface SFMR winds of 128 kt. In addition, the minimum pressure
based on dropsonde data is estimated to be 926 mb. Based on these
data, the initial intensity is set at 130 kt, which is close to the
upper bound of category 4 status.

The major hurricane is now moving due northward at 9 kt. A turn to
the northeast is expected on Tuesday, with a steady increase in
forward speed forecast during the next few days as the hurricane
moves in progressively faster flow between a mid-level ridge
over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level trough over the
northeastern U.S. and eastern Canada. The models are in relatively
good agreement during the next 72 hours, however, they diverge
significantly after that. The GFS shows a continued acceleration
to the northeast with the trough eventually capturing Franklin.
Conversely, the ECMWF shows the trough pulling away, leaving
Franklin behind in weaker steering currents. The NHC track forecast
is roughly between those very different solutions, sticking close
to the various consensus aids.

Franklin should maintain its strength overnight, but a steady
weakening trend should begin on Tuesday as the hurricane moves over
progressively cooler waters and into an environment of higher shear.
Regardless, Franklin is expected to be a significant hurricane
during the next few days. Franklin should complete extratropical
transition in 3 to 4 days when it crosses the northern wall of the
Gulf Stream Current and moves into an environment of very strong
shear. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the
previous one and close to the HCCA and IVCN models.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
Wednesday morning, when Franklin is forecast to make its closest
approach to the island.

2. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are occurring along the
coast of the southeast United States. These conditions are
expected to spread northward along the remainder of the U.S.
east coast, Atlantic Canada, and Bermuda during the next couple of
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 29.4N 71.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 30.5N 70.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 32.1N 69.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 33.9N 67.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 35.8N 64.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 31/1200Z 38.0N 60.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 40.9N 55.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 45.8N 45.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/0000Z 52.0N 38.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 290234
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...FRANKLIN A VERY POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ARE OCCURING ALONG THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 71.0W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB...27.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 71.0 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A north-northeastward
to northeastward motion with a faster forward speed is expected
during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of
Franklin is expected to pass well to the west of Bermuda on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Franklin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected
overnight, but steady weakening should begin on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 926 mb (27.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip currents generated by
Franklin are already affecting Bermuda and the coast of the
southeast United States. These conditions are expected to spread
northward along the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada during the next couple of days.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda by
Wednesday morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 290233
TCMAT3

HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
0300 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 71.0W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 926 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 71.0W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 71.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 30.5N 70.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 32.1N 69.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 33.9N 67.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 35.8N 64.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 130SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 38.0N 60.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 130SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 40.9N 55.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 45.8N 45.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 52.0N 38.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 71.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 29/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 282334
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...FRANKLIN A VERY POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ARE OCCURING ALONG THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 71.1W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB...27.34 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 71.1 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward to
north-northeastward motion with a slightly faster forward speed is
expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the
center of Franklin is expected to pass well to the west of Bermuda
on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts. Franklin is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is possible tonight, but gradual weakening is expected to begin
late Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 926 mb (27.34 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip currents generated by
Franklin are already affecting Bermuda and the coast of the
southeast United States. These conditions are expected to spread
northward along the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada during the next couple of days.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda by
Wednesday morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 282035
TCDAT3

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

Visible and infrared satellite imagery depicts Franklin remains a
powerful major hurricane this afternoon. The eye has cleared out and
warmed, with a thick symmetric eyewall tightly wrapped around the
center. Subjective and objective satellite estimates have remained
fairly steady throughout the day, around T6.5. Given that the
satellite appearance remains similar to earlier today when we had
aircraft reconnaissance data, the intensity remains at 125 kt for
this advisory. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters will be
investigating the system later this evening.

Franklin is moving northward at 350/8 kt. A northward then
northeastward motion is forecast during the next 48 hours as
Franklin rounds the western edge of the subtropical ridge. In a
couple of days, a deep trough is expected to move off the northeast
coast of the U.S. and eastern Canada, with Franklin becoming
captured in the southwesterly flow, causing an increase in forward
motion to the northeast. The model guidance for this cycle remained
in fairly good agreement except for the ECMWF, which shifted back to
the right. There is still a difference in the a long track guidance,
with the GFS being on the faster side of the model envelope. The NHC
track forecast is fairly similar to the previous, and lies near the
corrected consensus aids.

Some additional intensification is possible as Franklin remains
over warm sea-surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. The
latest peak intensity is unchanged from the previous forecast,
bringing Franklin to a strong Category 4 hurricane. The short
term forecast is subject to fluctuations in inner core changes, or
eyewall replacement cycles, which could occur at any time, making
the peak intensity forecast a little more challenging. Some gradual
weakening is forecast in about 24 hours as models indicate a
increase in northwesterly shear. Toward the end of the forecast
period, further weakening is expected as Franklin encounters
increased vertical wind shear and moves over cooler SSTs. Models
are in fairly good agreement with the system becoming an
extratropical cyclone around 96 h, and the forecast now
explicitly shows this transition occuring in 96 h.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
Wednesday morning, when Franklin is forecast to make its closest
approach to the island.

2. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are occurring along the
coast of the southeast United States. These conditions are
expected to spread northward along the remainder of the U.S.
east coast, Atlantic Canada, and Bermuda during the next couple of
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 28.5N 71.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 29.7N 71.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 31.3N 70.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 33.0N 68.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 34.9N 66.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 31/0600Z 37.2N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 39.6N 57.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 45.6N 48.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1800Z 50.4N 37.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 282034
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...FRANKLIN REMAINS A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ARE OCCURING ALONG THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 71.0W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 71.0 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). This northward to
north-northeastward motion with a slightly faster forward speed is
expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the
center of Franklin is expected to pass well to the west of Bermuda
on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Franklin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible,
but gradual weakening is expected to begin late Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells, life-threatening surf and rip currents generated by
Franklin are already affecting Bermuda and the coast of the
southeast United States. These conditions are expected to spread
northward along the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada during the next couple of days.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 282033
TCMAT3

HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 71.0W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 110SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 71.0W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 71.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 29.7N 71.1W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.3N 70.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 33.0N 68.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 34.9N 66.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 130SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 37.2N 62.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 130SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 39.6N 57.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 150SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 45.6N 48.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 50.4N 37.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 71.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 29/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 281746
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ARE OCCURING ALONG THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 71.1W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 71.1 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). This northward to
north-northeastward motion with a slightly faster forward speed is
expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the
center of Franklin is expected to pass well to the west of Bermuda
on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Franklin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible today,
but gradual weakening is expected to begin later Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells, life-threatening surf and rip currents generated by
Franklin are beginning to affect Bermuda and the coast of the
southeast United States and are expected to spread northward along
the east coast of the United States and, Atlantic Canada during the
next couple of days.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 281459
TCDAT3

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

Visible, infrared and microwave imagery depict a strengthening major
hurricane with a well-defined eye, a thick eyewall, and very cold
cloud tops. This was further supported by data from the Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunters, who have been investigating the storm
this morning. Minimum pressure has decreased from the previous
advisory based on a dropsonde measuring a pressure of 937 mb around
12 UTC. Flight-level, SFMR winds and dropsondes in the eyewall
indicate maximum sustained winds have increased to 125 kt.
Subjective and object satellite estimates also have drastically
increased with this advisory. Given these data, the initial
intensity is raised to 125 kt for this advisory, and Franklin has
rapidly intensified into a Category 4 major hurricane.

The hurricane continues to make a gradual turn northward, with the
latest motion estimate northward at 350/8 kt. A northward then
northeastward motion is forecast during the next 48 hours as
Franklin rounds the western edge of the subtropical ridge. After 48
hours, a deep trough is expected to move off the U.S. northeast
coast and Canada, and has Franklin becoming captured in the
southwesterly flow, with an increase in forward motion to the
northeast. There is better agreement in cross-track guidance
compared to the previous few advisories. However, there is still a
slight difference in the along track guidance with the GFS being
faster, and the ECMWF a little slower. The latest NHC track forecast
is similar to the previous forecast, with only a minor nudge to the
north.

Some additional intensification is possible today, as Franklin
remains in a low shear environment and is over warm sea-surface
temperatures. The latest intensity forecast peaks Franklin as a
strong Category 4 major hurricane. However, inner core changes, such
as eyewall replacement cycles, could occur at any time, making the
peak intensity and short-term forecast a little more challenging.
Some gradual weakening is forecast in about a day or so when models
forecast a slight increase in northwesterly shear. Toward the end of
the forecast period, further weakening is expected as Franklin
encounters increased vertical wind shear and moves over cooler SSTs.
The latest forecast shows the storm becoming a extratropical cyclone
in 120 h, though this could occur sooner.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
Wednesday morning, when Franklin is forecast to make its closest
approach to the island.

2. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are occurring along the
coast of the southeast United States. These conditions are
expected to spread northward along the remainder of the U.S.
east coast, Atlantic Canada, and Bermuda during the next couple of
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 27.8N 71.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 29.0N 71.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 30.7N 70.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 32.5N 69.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 34.5N 67.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 31/0000Z 36.3N 64.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 38.7N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 44.5N 49.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 51.8N 39.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 281459
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...FRANKLIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 71.0W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 71.0 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). This northward to
north-northeastward motion with a slightly faster forward speed is
expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the
center of Franklin is expected to pass well west of Bermuda on
Wednesday.

Based on data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft,
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts. Franklin is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
possible today, but gradual weakening is expected to begin later
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb based on data from
aircraft reconnaissance (27.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells, life-threatening surf and rip currents generated by
Franklin are beginning to affect Bermuda and the Southeast United
States and are expected to spread northward along the east coast of
the United States, Atlantic Canada, during the next couple of days.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 281458
TCMAT3

HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
1500 UTC MON AUG 28 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 71.0W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 110SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 135SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 71.0W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 70.9W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 29.0N 71.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 30.7N 70.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 32.5N 69.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 34.5N 67.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 36.3N 64.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 130SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 38.7N 59.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 150SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 44.5N 49.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 51.8N 39.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 71.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 28/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 281258
TCUAT3

Hurricane Franklin Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
900 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...FRANKLIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that
Hurricane Franklin is rapidly intensifying. The maximum winds are
estimated to be 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum
central pressure has decreased to 937 mb. The next full advisory on
Franklin will be at 11AM EDT (1500 UTC), and the intensity forecast
at that time will be increased from the previous advisory given the
ongoing rapid intensification.

SUMMARY OF 0900 AM...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 70.9W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 281135
TCUAT3

Hurricane Franklin Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
735 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND FRANKLIN TO BE STRONGER...

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that
Hurricane Franklin has strengthened this morning. The maximum winds
are estimated to be 130 mph (210 km/h) with higher gusts. The
minimum central pressure has dropped to 942 mb. The next full
advisory on Franklin will be at 11AM EDT (1500 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 735 AM...1135 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 70.8W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 280854
TCDAT3

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

Franklin has continued to improve in organization during the
overnight hours. The eye noted in the previous advisory has
occasionally cleared out on infrared satellite imagery, with the
cold eyewall temperatures surrounding it cooling to between -65 to
-75 C in a thick region around the center. Subjective Dvorak
classifications were both T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB, while
UW-CIMSS ADT estimates are now as high as T5.7/107 kt. The initial
intensity was raised to 100 kt at 06 UTC, and that will remain the
intensity at 09 UTC. While this may be slightly conservative,
earlier aircraft data showed that the maximum winds were lagging the
satellite presentation and minimum pressure of the hurricane. This
intensity still makes Franklin the first major hurricane of the 2023
Atlantic hurricane season. Another Air Force Reconnaissance mission
will be in the hurricane this morning to provide an updated
assessment of the storm.

The hurricane continues to make a gradual turn northward, with the
latest motion estimate still north-northwest at 335/7 kt. Over the
next 48 hours the hurricane should continue to turn northward and
then north-eastward as it rounds the western periphery of a
subtropical ridge, and very little change was made to the NHC track
over this time period. After 48 hours, there continues to be
significant spread, especially in the along-track direction, related
to how much a mid-latitude trough ejecting out of Canada is able to
capture the hurricane. The big change this forecast cycle is that
the ECMWF has come on board showing a trough capture, though it
still remains slower than the majority of the guidance suite. The
latest NHC track forecast has thus been adjusted a bit north and is
quite a bit faster after 48 hours, but is not quite as fast as the
TCVN and HCCA consensus aids over this period.

Some additional intensification is anticipated today, as Franklin
remains in a low shear environment and is over warm 29-30 C
sea-surface temperatures. The latest intensity forecast still peaks
Franklin as a Category 4 (115-kt) major hurricane. However,
inner-core changes, such as eyewall replacement cycles, could occur
at any time, making it somewhat tricky to pinpoint exactly when
Franklin will reach peak intensity. After 24 hours, the broadening
wind field and relatively slow storm motion could make the hurricane
prone to some local upwelling. In addition, some northwesterly
shear may also begin to affect the storm. Toward the end of the
forecast period, more dramatic weakening is possible as the storm
gets swept up in the mid-latitudes. The latest forecast shows the
storm becoming a post-tropical extratropical cyclone in 120 h,
though this could occur sooner than forecasted if the faster
solutions, like the GFS, pan out.

The current forecast shows the core of Franklin passing west and
north of Bermuda in about 60 h, but a tropical storm watch may still
become necessary later today as its expanding 34-kt wind field to
the southeast does get close to the island after 48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 27.2N 70.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 28.3N 71.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 29.8N 71.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 31.6N 70.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 33.2N 68.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 35.0N 65.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 37.0N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 42.0N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 48.0N 44.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 280853
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...FRANKLIN BECOMES THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2023
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 70.8W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.
Watches will likely be required for Bermuda later today.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 70.8 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual
turn toward the north and north-northeast with a slightly faster
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. This makes Franklin a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is forecast today, but gradual weakening is expected to begin by
Tuesday afternoon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Franklin are beginning to affect Bermuda.
These swells are expected to spread toward the east coast of the
United States during the next couple of days, likely resulting in
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 280852
TCMAT3

HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
0900 UTC MON AUG 28 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 70.8W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 100SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 135SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 70.8W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 70.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.3N 71.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 29.8N 71.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.6N 70.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 33.2N 68.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 35.0N 65.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 130SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 37.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 150SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 42.0N 53.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 48.0N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 70.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 280252
TCDAT3

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Franklin is becoming better organized tonight. A ragged eye has
emerged in conventional satellite imagery during the past few hours,
and the Air Force Hurricane Hunters reported a closed eyewall during
recent passes through the center. Aircraft data indicated the
minimum pressure has continued to fall, with a 00 UTC dropsonde
reporting a pressure of 964 mb. Since the plane departed, the
satellite structure of Franklin has markedly improved, with very
cold cloud tops wrapping around the eastern portion of the
circulation. The initial intensity of 90 kt is supported by recent
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS and a T5.0 subjective Dvorak
classification from TAFB at 00 UTC.

Recent satellite images suggest the hurricane is finally turning
more northward as expected, and the initial motion is
north-northwestward (330/7 kt). A gradual turn to the north and
north-northeast is forecast during the next couple of days as
Franklin moves around the western periphery of a high pressure
ridge. The track guidance is in good agreement on this portion of
the forecast, and only minor westward adjustments were made
following the latest HCCA and TVCA aids. Thereafter, track
uncertainty increases regarding Franklin's interaction with a
deep-layer trough moving off the U.S. east coast by midweek. The GFS
and ECMWF lie on opposite sides of the guidance envelope, with an
850 n-mi spread at 96 h. Given the greater than normal uncertainty,
the NHC track forecast remains close to the multi-model consensus
aids at days 3-5, showing a gradually faster east-northeastward to
northeastward motion during this period.

Based on recent satellite trends, it appears that the shear has
weakened and the inner core of Franklin has become more solidified.
Thus, the hurricane could be primed to strengthen in the near term
within a low shear environment over very warm SSTs. The NHC forecast
brings Franklin to major hurricane intensity in 12 h with more
strengthening thereafter, in best agreement with some of the
regional hurricane models and slightly above the HCCA/IVCN aids. As
the hurricane recurves, increased deep-layer shear and cooler waters
should induce some weakening, although the wind field will expand
while the hurricane moves further into the mid-latitudes. This
forecast shows Franklin becoming extratropical at day 5, although
the timing could be refined based on future track forecasts.

Although the core of Franklin is forecast to pass west and north of
Bermuda during the next few days, its expanding wind field will
likely require a tropical storm watch for the island on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 26.4N 70.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 27.3N 71.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 28.9N 71.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 30.4N 70.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 32.2N 69.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 33.8N 67.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 35.2N 64.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 37.5N 57.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 42.0N 49.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 280250
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...FRANKLIN IS STRENGTHENING...
...SWELLS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 70.5W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.
Watches will likely be required for Bermuda on Monday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 70.5 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual
turn toward the north and north-northeast with a slightly faster
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Franklin is expected to become a major hurricane on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Franklin are beginning to affect Bermuda.
These swells are expected to spread toward the east coast of the
United States during the next couple of days, likely resulting in
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 280249
TCMAT3

HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
0300 UTC MON AUG 28 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 70.5W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 70.5W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 70.3W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.3N 71.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 28.9N 71.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 30.4N 70.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 32.2N 69.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 33.8N 67.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 35.2N 64.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 37.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 42.0N 49.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 70.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 272042
TCDAT3

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM AST Sun Aug 27 2023

Visible and infrared satellite imagery has improved slightly since
this morning, with a tight inner core developing around the center.
There have been hints of an eye developing in infrared and visible
images throughout the day, but the eye remains cloud filled.
Franklin is still dealing with a little bit of drier mid-level dry
air trying to wrap into the eastern side. Subjective and objective
Dvorak estimates have remained steady throughout the day today. With
these estimates combined with the lower surface pressure reported by
the aircraft, the initial intensity remains at 85 kt this advisory.
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating the system
later this evening.

Environmental conditions are fairly favorable for the next few days,
with very warm sea surface temperatures and vertical wind shear
forecast to decrease. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and
Franklin could become a major hurricane on Monday. In about 3 to 4
days, weakening is forecast as Franklin encounters increased shear
and moves over cooler SSTs. The wind field of Franklin is forecast
to increase in size as it moves into the mid-latitudes.

Franklin is moving northwestward at 8 kt, around a broad
high-pressure ridge to the east of Franklin. This ridge will steer
the system more north-northwestward and northward over the next
couple of days. In the longer range of the forecast period, a deep
trough is expected to move off the U.S. east coast, and most of the
guidance has Franklin becoming captured in the southwesterly flow,
with an increase in forward motion to the northeast. The official
NHC forecast track lies near the model consensus aids, with only
slight adjustments to the previous advisory. The NHC forecast track
still has the core of Franklin passing west and north of Bermuda,
but interests there should continue to monitor the latest NHC
forecasts. By day 5, Franklin may begin to interact with the upper
trough and begin an extratropical transition, although that is not
explicitly forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 25.9N 70.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 27.0N 70.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 28.5N 71.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 30.0N 70.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 31.5N 69.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 33.2N 68.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 34.5N 65.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 37.1N 58.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 41.0N 50.8W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 272041
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM AST Sun Aug 27 2023

...FRANKLIN FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY...
...LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 70.0W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 535 MI...855 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 70.0 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This motion
will continue through tonight, followed by a northward and
north-northeastward motion into the early part of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Franklin is
forecast to become a major hurricane on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Franklin are expected to begin affecting
Bermuda by tonight. These swells are also likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the
beginning of this week along portions of the east coast of the
United States. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 272040
TCMAT3

HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 70.0W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 70.0W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 69.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.0N 70.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 30.0N 70.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.5N 69.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 33.2N 68.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 34.5N 65.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 37.1N 58.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 41.0N 50.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 69.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 271445
TCDAT3

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 27 2023

Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Franklin this
morning and found Franklin a little stronger, with the pressure down
a few millibars to 971mb. Latest visible and infrared satellite
imagery show an eye developing with a cold core of deep convection
wrapping around the center. The aircraft reconnaissance reported
that the eye was closed in the most recent vortex fix. They also
reported a concentric band forming around the eyewall, which may be
the stages of an eyewall replacement cycle. Satellite estimates from
TAFB and SAB, remained steady this advisory. However, given the
improved satellite depiction in the last few hours and data from
the hurricane hunters, the initial intensity is raised to 85kt.

Environmental conditions are fairly favorable during the next few
days, with very warm sea surface temperature and decreasing
deep-layer wind shear. Steady strengthening is forecast and
Franklin could become a major hurricane later tonight or tomorrow.
The intensity forecast remains similar to the previous one and
lies near the consensus aids, HCCA and IVCN. Weakening is forecast
in about 3 to 4 days, as Franklin encounters increased shear and
moves over cooler SSTs. The wind field of Franklin is forecast to
increase in size as it moves into the mid-latitudes.

Franklin has continued to move northwestward at 7kt this morning.
The near-term forecast has been nudged slightly west of the
previous advisory. A broad high-pressure ridge to the east of
Franklin will steer the system more north-northwestward and
northward the next couple of days. In the longer range of the
forecast period, a deep trough is expected to move off the U.S.
east coast and most of the guidance has Franklin becoming
captured in the southwesterly flow, with an increase in forward
motion to the northeast. The main exception is the ECMWF, which is
the furthest right once again this forecast cycle. The official
forecast track lies near the model consensus aids, in the middle of
the guidance suite. The NHC forecast track still has the core of
Franklin passing west and north of Bermuda, but interest there
should continue to monitor the latest NHC forecast. By Day 5 or
just beyond the forecast period, Franklin may begin to interact
with the upper trough and begin an extratropical transition.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 25.1N 69.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 26.0N 70.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 27.4N 70.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 28.9N 70.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 30.4N 70.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 31.9N 69.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 33.4N 67.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 36.6N 60.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 40.6N 52.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 271442
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 27 2023

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND FRANKLIN A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 69.3W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 69.3 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This
motion will continue through today, followed by a northward
and north-northeastward motion into the early part of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155
km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast,
and Franklin could become a major hurricane later today or tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb based on data from
aircraft reconnaissance (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Franklin are expected to begin affecting
Bermuda by tonight. These swells are also likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions beginning late
today through the beginning of this week along portions of the east
coast of the United States. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 271442
TCMAT3

HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
1500 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 69.3W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 69.3W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 69.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.0N 70.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.4N 70.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 28.9N 70.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 30.4N 70.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 31.9N 69.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 33.4N 67.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 36.6N 60.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 40.6N 52.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 69.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 270858
TCDAT3

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM AST Sun Aug 27 2023

After becoming obscured for a time earlier tonight, the eye of
Franklin is beginning to re-emerge on infrared satellite images
early this morning. The last helpful microwave pass at 0246 UTC
showed some disruption of Franklin's inner core that could have
been due to southerly shear causing the eyewall to be open to the
east. This structure was also observed by both NOAA and Air Force
Reconnaissance missions earlier tonight. Intensity estimates from
SAB and TAFB were both T4.5/77 kt this morning, but with the recent
re-emergence of the eye, the advisory intensity is bumped up to 80
kt for this advisory.

Franklin is moving to the northwest this morning with an estimated
motion of 320/7 kt. The track forecast over the next 48 h is
relatively straightforward as the cyclone is expected to round the
western side of a mid-level subtropical ridge to its east. The
track guidance over this time span is in good agreement, and the
latest NHC track forecast is very close to or just a bit west of
the prior one through 48 h. Afterwards, uncertainty quickly
increases, primarily related to whether Franklin will be captured
by a mid-latitude trough emerging off the eastern US coastline.
While the GFS continues to show the hurricane being captured by
this trough, the latest runs of the ECMWF, CMC, and UKMET now leave
the cyclone behind, resulting in it turning more eastward and
slowing down as the trough bypasses it to its north. Both the
ECMWF and GFS ensembles show a huge amount of spread, spanning more
than 1000 mi at the end of the forecast period. While the latest
NHC track forecast will not shift all the way to Franklin being
left behind by the trough, it is noticeably slower and eastward
compared to the prior track at days 4 and 5. Future adjustments to
the southeast may become necessary in subsequent cycles. On the
forecast track, Franklin will be making its closest approach to
Bermuda in 3-4 days, and is a bit closer to Bermuda than the prior
advisory.

As long as the small eyewall observed by earlier recon and microwave
imagery is closing back off, Franklin should continue to intensify,
likely rapidly due to favorable low shear and ample warm waters
under the hurricane. DTOPS continues to suggest between a 59-68
percent chance of a 30 kt intensity increase in the next 24 hours,
and the latest intensity forecast is close to this scenario, taking
the storm to a category 3 hurricane in 24 hours and peaking it as a
115-kt category 4 hurricane in 36 hours. This is near the higher
end of the intensity guidance, but is quite close to the latest
HFIP corrected consensus forecast. Afterwards, there are a couple
of factors that could cause Franklin to start weakening. First, the
storm will likely undergo fluctuations related to eyewall
replacement cycles, which would also broaden its overall wind
field. In addition, the motion of Franklin is relatively slow, and
the warm 29-30 C waters it will be traversing are fairly shallow,
leaving the cyclone prone to cool upwelling along its track as the
wind field expands. Vertical wind shear out of the northwest also
increases after 36 hours. All of these factors are why the latest
NHC intensity forecast shows weakening beginning after this period,
which is also in good agreement with both the simple and corrected
consensus aids. Given the large spread of solutions at days 4 and 5,
it is unclear if Franklin will start to undergo extratropical
transition during that time, or will be left behind by the trough,
resulting in a slower motion that stays over warmer waters
south of the Gulf Stream.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 24.7N 68.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 25.6N 69.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 26.9N 70.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 28.4N 70.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 29.9N 70.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 31.3N 69.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 33.0N 67.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 36.5N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 40.0N 52.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 270856
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM AST Sun Aug 27 2023

...FRANKLIN FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANKLIN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 68.7W
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 68.7 West. Franklin is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected later today, followed by a northward
and north-northeastward motion into the early part of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast over the next 24
hours, and Franklin could become a major hurricane by tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Franklin are expected to begin affecting
Bermuda by tonight. These swells are also likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions beginning late
today through the beginning of this week along portions of the east
coast of the United States. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 270855
TCMAT3

HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
0900 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 68.7W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 68.7W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 68.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 25.6N 69.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 26.9N 70.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.4N 70.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 29.9N 70.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.3N 69.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 33.0N 67.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 36.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 40.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 68.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 270247
TCDAT3

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 26 2023

The eye of Franklin has been obscured in conventional satellite
imagery by deep convective bursts within its southern eyewall during
the past several hours. At times, there has been some disruption of
the inner core convection by drier air wrapping around the eastern
and northern portions of the circulation. Both the Air Force and
NOAA Hurricane Hunters investigated Franklin tonight and provided
useful data to analyze the storm. Tail Doppler radar data from the
NOAA aircraft reveal better vertical alignment of Franklin's vortex,
although there is still a bit of tilt with height. Peak SFMR wind
retrievals from both aircraft support an initial intensity of 75 kt,
and the latest dropsonde data indicate the surface pressure has
fallen to 975 mb.

Conditions appear favorable for some significant strengthening of
Franklin during the next couple of days. The deep-layer shear is
forecast to continue decreasing over the cyclone while it traverses
very warm SSTs greater than 29 deg C. The hurricane could be prone
to more rapid fluctuations in intensity given its small inner core,
and some of the rapid intensification (RI) guidance, particularly
DTOPS, suggests there are well above average chances that Franklin
could undergo RI during the next 48 h. Thus, the updated intensity
forecast is raised in the near term, bringing Franklin to major
hurricane strength in 24 h with a peak intensity of 115 kt on
Monday. This lies near HCCA and IVCN, but below some of the regional
hurricane models (HAFS and COAMPS-TC). Weakening is forecast at
days 4 and 5 as Franklin encounters increased shear over cooler
SSTs, but its wind field is expected to grow as it moves deeper into
the mid-latitudes.

The aircraft fixes indicate Franklin has continued to deviate left
of the forecast track, and its initial motion is northwestward at 7
kt. The near-term track forecast has been adjusted west of the
previous one based on Franklin's continued northwestward motion. A
broad high pressure ridge to the east of Franklin should steer the
hurricane more north-northwestward and northward during the next
couple of days. Later in the period, a deep-layer trough is expected
to move off the U.S. east coast, and most global models (except the
ECMWF) show Franklin becoming captured within the southwesterly flow
ahead of the trough and accelerating northeastward. The NHC forecast
track still shows the core of Franklin passing west and north of
Bermuda, but interests there should continue to monitor the latest
NHC forecast updates. By day 5, interaction with the upper trough
could bring about the start of extratropical transition.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 23.9N 68.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 24.9N 68.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 26.2N 69.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 27.6N 70.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 29.2N 70.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 30.8N 69.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 32.5N 68.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 35.8N 63.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 41.0N 52.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 270246
TCMAT3

HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
0300 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 68.2W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 68.2W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 67.9W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 24.9N 68.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.2N 69.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.6N 70.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 29.2N 70.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 30.8N 69.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 32.5N 68.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 35.8N 63.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 41.0N 52.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 68.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 270246
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 26 2023

...FRANKLIN FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 68.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 68.2 West. Franklin is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected on Sunday, followed by a northward
motion into early next week.

Data from the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Significant strengthening is expected during the next couple
of days, and Franklin is forecast to become a major hurricane by
late Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). NOAA buoy 41046, located several hundred miles east of the
Bahamas, recently reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) and
a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is
975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Franklin are expected to begin affecting
Bermuda by Sunday night. These swells are also likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions late this weekend
through early next week along portions of the east coast of the
United States. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 262044
TCDAT3

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM AST Sat Aug 26 2023


Visible and microwave satellite imagery show Franklin is becoming a
well organized hurricane. AMSR2 microwave data showed a closed
mid-level core that was vertically aligned with the low-level
center. The latest visible imagery shows a dimple where an eye may
be trying to develop. Deep convection has become more symmetrical,
wrapping around the center throughout the day. NOAA Hurricane
Hunters were in the system earlier this afternoon, with flight-level
winds and SFMR winds supporting an intensity of around 70 kt. The
UW-CIMSS ADT objective satellite estimates have been rising this
afternoon as well. Given the improved satellite structure combined
with the earlier data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters, the initial
intensity is raised to 75 kt for this advisory. NOAA and Air Force
Hurricane Hunters will be in the system later this evening.

Franklin is moving north-northwestward at 7 kt. A
north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast during the next
few days as the storm moves along the western periphery of a
mid-level ridge, taking it to the west of Bermuda on Tuesday. By
the middle of next week, a faster northeast to east-northeast motion
is expected between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough over
eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. In the short
range, models once again have trended westward, and the official NHC
forecast has been nudged west as well. For the long term, models,
including the GFS and ECMWF, have made a fairly large shift to the
right. The NHC track was shifted in that direction in the long term,
but remains to the left of the consensus aids. The confidence of the
long-term forecast track is lower than usual.

Franklin has been steadily strengthening throughout the day. Further
strengthening is forecast during the next few days with lower
vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures in the western
Atlantic. Franklin is forecast to become a major hurricane early
next week. The strengthening trend should end in about 3 to 4 days
with shear expected to increase over the system at that time. By day
5, the current forecast track takes the system over much cooler
SSTs. However, the intensity in the long range will be dependent on
the eventual forecast track of Franklin. The current intensity
forecast lies near the consensus aids, but still slightly lower than
the HCCA aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 23.8N 67.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 24.7N 68.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 25.9N 68.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 27.1N 69.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 28.7N 69.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 30.3N 69.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 32.0N 69.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 35.2N 65.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 31/1800Z 39.1N 56.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 262043
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM AST Sat Aug 26 2023

...FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 67.5W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 67.5 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the western
Atlantic through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast, and Franklin
could become a major hurricane early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Franklin are expected to begin affecting
Bermuda by Sunday night. These swells are also likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions late this weekend
into early next week along portions of the east coast of the United
States. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 262043
TCMAT3

HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 67.5W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 67.5W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 67.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 24.7N 68.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 25.9N 68.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.1N 69.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.7N 69.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 30.3N 69.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 32.0N 69.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 35.2N 65.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 39.1N 56.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 67.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 261447
TCDAT3

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 26 2023

Franklin has become better organized this morning on satellite and
microwave imagery. An earlier SSMIS microwave pass showed a
developing core with the mid and low-level center becoming more
vertically aligned. Early visible satellite images showed a ragged
eye, which has become cloud filled in the last hour or two. Deep
convection around Franklin has become more symmetric compared to
recent days, likely due to a decrease in vertical wind shear. Air
Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters have been in the system
this morning, and found that the surface pressure has dropped to
989 mb and SFMR winds were around 60 to 65 kt from both aircraft.
Given the data from the aircraft reconnaissance, Franklin has been
upgraded to a Hurricane, with the initial intensity set at 65 kt.
Franklin is the second hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane
season.

Franklin is moving north-northwestward at 6 kt. A
north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast during the next
few days as the storm moves along the western periphery of a
mid-level ridge, taking it to the west of Bermuda on Tuesday. By
the middle of next week, a faster northeastward motion is expected
when Franklin moves in between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level
trough over eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. The
track models have shifted to the west once again this cycle, and the
NHC track forecast follows that trend and is slightly slower than
the previous one at long ranges.

Franklin is expected to steadily strengthen during the next few days
with lower vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures in
the western Atlantic. Franklin is forecast to become a major
hurricane early next week. The strengthening trend should end in
about 3 to 4 days with shear expected to increase. By Day 5, the
system will move over much cooler SSTs leading to increased
weakening. The intensity models are higher this cycle, and the NHC
forecast has been nudged upward, but still remains below the IVCN
and HCCA consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 23.5N 66.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 24.2N 67.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 25.4N 67.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 27.0N 68.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 28.5N 69.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 30.2N 69.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 31.9N 69.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 35.6N 65.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 40.5N 56.9W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 261446
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 26 2023

...FRANKLIN STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 66.7W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 66.7 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and a
northward to north-northwestward motion is expected over the western
Atlantic through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Franklin
could become a major hurricane early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb based on data from
aircraft reconnaissance. (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Franklin are expected to begin affecting
Bermuda by Sunday night. These swells are also likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions late this weekend
into early next week along portions of the east coast of the United
States Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 261445
TCMAT3

HURRICANE FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
1500 UTC SAT AUG 26 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 66.7W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 66.7W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 66.5W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 24.2N 67.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.4N 67.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 27.0N 68.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.5N 69.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 30.2N 69.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 31.9N 69.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 35.6N 65.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 40.5N 56.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 66.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 260849
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM AST Sat Aug 26 2023

Franklin is gradually getting better organized. During the past
couple of days, deep convection has been mainly confined to the east
of the center. However, there has been a change recently with the
convective pattern becoming a little more symmetric, likely due to a
decrease in vertical wind shear. The Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB have increased to 3.5/55 kt, and the initial intensity
is raised to that value.

The storm is still moving east-northeastward at 6 kt, but a sharp
northward turn is expected to occur later today as a ridge builds to
the east of the system over the central Atlantic. A northward to
north-northwestward motion is forecast during the next few days as
the storm moves along the western periphery of the ridge, taking it
to the west of Bermuda on Tuesday. By the middle of next week, a
faster northeastward motion is expected when Franklin moves in the
flow between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough over eastern
Canada and the northeastern U.S. The track models have shifted to
the west this cycle, and the NHC track forecast follows that theme
and is a little slower than the previous one at days 4 and 5.

Franklin is expected to steadily strengthen during the next few days
as the vertical wind shear becomes light while the storm remains
over warm water and in a relatively moist environment. Franklin
will likely become a hurricane by tonight and possibly a major
hurricane early next week. The strengthening trend should end in 3
to 4 days when the shear is expected to increase and weakening
should commence in 4 to 5 days when Franklin is forecast to move
over much cooler waters. The intensity models are higher this
cycle, and the NHC forecast has been nudged upward, close to the
IVCN and HCCA models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 22.8N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 23.4N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 24.6N 66.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 26.0N 67.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 27.5N 68.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 29.3N 68.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 31.0N 68.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 34.8N 66.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 31/0600Z 39.9N 58.1W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 260849
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM AST Sat Aug 26 2023

...FRANKLIN SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 65.8W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 65.8 West. Franklin is
moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A sharp turn
toward the north is expected later today, followed by a northward to
north-northwestward motion over the western Atlantic through early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Franklin
could become a hurricane within the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Franklin are expected to begin affecting
Bermuda by Sunday night. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 260848
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
0900 UTC SAT AUG 26 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 65.8W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 65.8W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 66.0W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 23.4N 66.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 24.6N 66.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 26.0N 67.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.5N 68.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 29.3N 68.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 31.0N 68.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 34.8N 66.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 39.9N 58.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 65.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 260249
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 25 2023

Westerly shear continues to affect Franklin tonight, as evidenced by
the sharp edge to its cold cloud tops on infrared satellite images.
However, the low-level center that was exposed earlier today appears
to have moved under the western edge of the convective canopy. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew the storm at 700 mb
this evening and reported peak flight-level winds of 56 kt, with
believable SFMR winds in the 45-55 kt range. These data warrant a
slight increase to the initial intensity (50 kt), especially given a
recent dropsonde that suggests the surface pressure has fallen to
996 mb tonight. A recent ASCAT-B pass over Franklin further supports
this, with peak wind vectors slightly above 45 kt. Note that the
initial intensity of Franklin is more uncertain than normal, with
there being a large spread between some of the aircraft data and the
various objective and subjective satellite estimates.

The intense convection closer to the center of Franklin appears to
have drawn the surface center more northeastward, and the initial
motion is an uncertain 60/7 kt. A high pressure ridge building to
the east of Franklin is expected to steer the cyclone more northward
and north-northwestward this weekend and into early next week. Then,
a deep-layer trough is forecast to move across the northeastern U.S.
and eastern Canada by midweek. This should cause Franklin to
accelerate northeastward deeper into the mid latitudes through the
end of the forecast period. The updated NHC track forecast lies to
the east of the previous one during the first 60-72 h of the period,
mainly a result of the eastward adjustment to the initial position
of Franklin. There are some notable forward speed differences beyond
72 h, with the GFS significantly faster than the rest of the global
and regional models. With the NHC forecast remaining near the
multi-model consensus aids, no notable changes were made to this
portion of the track forecast.

The westerly shear that has plagued Franklin for the past couple of
days is expected to decrease during the next 24-36 h. So while only
modest strengthening is forecast in the near term, more significant
strengthening seems likely thereafter as the cyclone moves over
very warm SSTs (29-30 deg C) and within a more favorable dynamic
environment. The updated forecast shows Franklin becoming a
hurricane by 48 h and peaking near major hurricane intensity in
72-96 h, in good agreement with the latest HCCA and IVCN aids. As
Franklin accelerates to higher latitudes, cooler waters and
increased deep-layer shear will induce weakening and eventually
extratropical transition beyond the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 22.4N 66.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 23.0N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 23.9N 66.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 25.3N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 27.0N 67.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 28.8N 68.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 30.5N 68.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 34.7N 66.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 31/0000Z 40.0N 60.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 260248
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
0300 UTC SAT AUG 26 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 66.2W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 66.2W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 66.6W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 23.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 23.9N 66.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.3N 67.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 27.0N 67.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.8N 68.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 30.5N 68.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 34.7N 66.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 40.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 66.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 260248
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 25 2023

...FRANKLIN STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 66.2W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 66.2 West. Franklin is
moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A sharp turn
toward the north is expected on Saturday, followed by a northward to
north-northwestward motion over the western Atlantic through early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day
or so, followed by more significant strengthening on Sunday and
Monday. Franklin is forecast to become a hurricane by early next
week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data from
the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 252037
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM AST Fri Aug 25 2023

Franklin's low-level center remains exposed this afternoon on
visible satellite imagery. Strong vertical wind shear continues to
affect the asymmetric system, with the deep convection displaced on
the eastern side of the storm. The Air Force and NOAA Hurricane
Hunters have been in the system much of the day and show that the
flight-level winds and pressure have remained steady. Subjective
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB also remain unchanged from the
previous advisory. Given the data from the Hurricane Hunters and
these satellite estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory
remains at 45 kt.

The storm is moving slowly to the east-northeast at about 5 kt,
around the base of a broad mid- to upper-level trough. This
east-northeast to northeast motion is expected to continue through
tonight as ridging builds to the east of Franklin over the central
Atlantic and the trough drops southwestward. Franklin will then
turn more northward late this weekend into early next week, with the
core of the system probably moving to the west of Bermuda on Monday
and Tuesday. By the middle of next week, Franklin is forecast to
turn to the northeast and accelerate between the ridge and a
mid-latitude trough over eastern Canada and the northeast U.S. The
NHC track forecast has shifted slightly eastward in the short term
given the recent motion. At long range, the guidance envelope and
consensus aids this cycle were to the right of the previous forecast
track. The official NHC forecast was adjusted slightly to the east,
but lies west of the consensus aids for this cycle.

Strong westerly vertical wind shear should remain over Franklin for
the next 24 hours or so, which will probably limit much
strengthening. In a day or two, strengthening is forecast as the
wind shear decreases and Franklin remains over very warm sea surface
temperatures. Franklin is expected to become a hurricane early next
week and should reach a peak intensity near major hurricane strength
by day 4. By the end of the forecast period, a gradual weakening
trend is forecast as Franklin moves over cooler waters and into a
stronger vertical wind shear environment. The intensity guidance was
slightly weaker in the short term, and the official intensity
forecast followed these trends. In the long term, the peak intensity
forecast remains unchanged and near the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 21.9N 67.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 22.0N 66.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 22.8N 66.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 23.8N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 25.4N 67.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 27.3N 68.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 29.2N 68.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 33.0N 67.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 37.8N 62.7W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 252036
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM AST Fri Aug 25 2023

...FRANKLIN TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 67.0W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 735 MI...1180 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 67.0 West. Franklin is
moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph (10 km/h), and this
motion will continue through tonight. A sharp turn toward the
north, with an increase in forward speed is expected on Saturday,
with a northward or north-northwestward motion over the western
Atlantic continuing through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Franklin will likely become
a hurricane early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 252036
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
2100 UTC FRI AUG 25 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 67.0W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 67.0W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 67.4W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 22.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 22.8N 66.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 23.8N 66.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 25.4N 67.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.3N 68.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 29.2N 68.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 33.0N 67.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 37.8N 62.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 67.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 251453
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 25 2023

Visible satellite imagery this morning shows that Franklin's
low-level center has become completely exposed, with convection on
the southeastern side of the system due to strong vertical wind
shear. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been in the system this
morning and found that the pressure has increased to 1003 mb and
the flight-level winds have decreased, though strong convection
prevented a full sample of the storm. A blend of subjective and
objective satellite estimates are in general agreement with data
from the Air Force reconnaissance that show the winds slightly lower
than the previous advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity is set
to 45 kt.

The storm is moving slowly to the east-southeast at about 4 kt,
around the base of a broad mid- to upper-level trough. A turn to
the east then a northeast motion is expected later today and
tonight as ridging builds to the east of Franklin over the central
Atlantic and the trough drops southwestward. This system will
then turn more northward late this weekend into early next week,
with the core of the system probably moving to the west of Bermuda
on Monday and Tuesday. By the middle of next week, Franklin is
forecast to turn to the northeast and increase in forward motion due
to faster flow between the ridge and a mid-latitude trough over
eastern Canada and the northeast U.S. The NHC track forecast has
shifted southeastward in the short term given the recent motion.
At long range, there was once again another shift to the west in
the guidance envelope and the official track forecast follows the
trend.

Strong westerly vertical wind shear should remain over the system
for the next 24 hours or so, which will probably limit much
strengthening. In a day or two, more significant strengthening is
forecast as the wind shear decreases and Franklin remains over very
warm sea surface temperatures. Franklin is expected to become a
hurricane over the weekend and should reach a peak intensity near
major hurricane strength early next week. The cyclone should
level off in intensity by day 4, followed by a weakening trend
thereafter due to Franklin moving over cooler waters and into a
stronger vertical wind shear environment. The intensity forecast is
fairly similar to the previous, with the only change being a
slightly weaker system in the near term, which lies near the
corrected consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 21.8N 67.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 22.1N 67.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 22.8N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 23.7N 67.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 25.2N 68.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 26.8N 69.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 28.7N 69.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 33.1N 68.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 39.0N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 251452
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 25 2023

...FRANKLIN CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED BUT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 67.8W
ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 21.8 North, longitude 67.8 West. Franklin is moving toward
the east-southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion will
gradually become more easterly and northeasterly today. A sharp
turn toward the north, with an increase in forward motion is
expected tonight and Saturday, with a northward or
north-northwestward motion over the western Atlantic continuing
through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast by tomorrow, and Franklin
will likely become a hurricane over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure from dropsonde data is 1003
mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 251451
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
1500 UTC FRI AUG 25 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 67.8W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 67.8W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 68.0W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.1N 67.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 22.8N 66.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 23.7N 67.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.2N 68.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.8N 69.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.7N 69.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 33.1N 68.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 39.0N 63.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 67.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 251310
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
910 AM AST Fri Aug 25 2023

...FRANKLIN MOVING ERRATICALLY SOUTHEASTWARD...

Satellite and aircraft data indicate that the center of Tropical
Storm Franklin is moving well south of the current NHC track
forecast. A southward adjustment will be made in the short term
track forecast for the upcoming regular advisory to be issued no
later than 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 0910 AM AST...1310 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 68.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...190 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 250841
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM AST Fri Aug 25 2023

Franklin has generally changed little during the past several hours.
The storm remains strongly sheared with the low-level center
partially exposed near the western edge of the main area of deep
convection. Cloud tops are quite cold on the system's east side,
but the storm continues to lack convective symmetry. The initial
intensity remains 50 kt based on the earlier Air Force
reconnaissance data, which is a little above the current satellite
intensity estimates.

The storm is moving slowly to the east-northeast at about 5 kt in
weak steering currents near the base of a broad mid- to upper-level
trough. A north to north-northwest motion is expected to commence
tonight or early Saturday as ridging builds to the east of Franklin
over the central Atlantic. This motion should bring the core of the
system to the west of Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. The storm is
likely to turn northeastward and accelerate by the middle of next
week when it should move in the faster flow between the ridge and a
mid- to upper-level trough over eastern Canada and the northeast
U.S. In general, the models have shifted westward this cycle, and
the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that direction.

Continued moderate to strong westerly vertical wind shear should
limit strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. However, more
significant strengthening seems likely in a day or two when the
shear decreases while Franklin remains over warm water and in a
relatively moist environment. Franklin is expected to become a
hurricane over the weekend and should reach a peak intensity near
major hurricane strength early next week. The strengthening trend
should end around day 4, at which time the storm is forecast to
begin moving over cooler waters and into an environment of stronger
shear. The intensity models are in fairly good agreement, and this
forecast is quite similar to the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 22.7N 68.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 22.8N 67.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 23.3N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 24.1N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 25.3N 67.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 26.9N 68.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 28.6N 68.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 33.0N 68.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 39.2N 63.9W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 250840
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM AST Fri Aug 25 2023

...FRANKLIN HOLDING STEADY BUT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THIS
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 68.0W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 68.0 West. Franklin is
moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A sharp turn toward
the north is expected tonight and Saturday, with a northward or
north-northwestward motion over the western Atlantic continuing
through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Franklin will likely
become a hurricane over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 250840
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
0900 UTC FRI AUG 25 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 68.0W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 105SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 68.0W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 68.2W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.8N 67.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 23.3N 66.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 24.1N 67.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 25.3N 67.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 26.9N 68.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.6N 68.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 33.0N 68.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 39.2N 63.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 68.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 250232
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
0300 UTC FRI AUG 25 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 68.3W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 68.3W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 68.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.9N 67.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.2N 66.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 23.7N 66.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 24.8N 67.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 26.1N 67.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 27.8N 68.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 31.9N 68.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 37.1N 65.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 68.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 250234
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 24 2023

Franklin is still a strongly sheared tropical storm, with deep
convection displaced to the east and southeast of the surface
center. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission flying at
700 mb this evening fixed a center within the strong thunderstorm
activity, but because of the cyclone's tilted structure, the
surface center is estimated to be a few tenths of a degree farther
west. SFMR and flight-level winds suggest that the maximum winds
could be between 50-55 kt, but the central pressure has risen a few
millibars since this morning's flight. Therefore, the initial
intensity is held at 50 kt.

Franklin is embedded in the base of a deep-layer trough located
over the western Atlantic, which is steering the storm toward the
east-northeast (70 degrees) at 7 kt. The parent trough is forecast
to lift northeastward and allow mid-level ridging to build over the
central Atlantic during the next couple of days, and Franklin is
expected to respond by making a sharp but slow northward turn by 36
hours. The ridge could even be strong enough to push Franklin
toward the north-northwest for a time while the storm moves across
the western Atlantic, and the HAFS regional models in particular
favor that scenario, being the westernmost of the guidance suite.
Those models have tugged the consensus aids a bit west too, and as
a result the new NHC forecast track is nudged in that direction
compared to the previous forecast.

Moderate to strong deep-layer shear is likely to continue over
Franklin for the next 36-48 hours, until the storm makes its
northward turn. That said, warm ocean waters and a favorably
diffluent upper-level pattern should still allow for gradual
strengthening during the next couple of days, and Franklin is
expected to become a hurricane by 48 hours, about the time the shear
abates. More significant strengthening is likely after 48 hours
while Franklin moves over the western Atlantic, and the NHC
intensity forecast remains close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus
aids. The HAFS regional models continue to show stronger solutions,
so trends in the other models will have to be monitored for
potential upward adjustments to the official forecast in the coming
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 22.6N 68.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 22.9N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 23.2N 66.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 23.7N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 24.8N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 26.1N 67.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 27.8N 68.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 31.9N 68.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 37.1N 65.6W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 250232
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 24 2023

...FRANKLIN FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 68.3W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 705 MI...1130 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 68.3 West. Franklin is
moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through late Friday. A sharp
turn toward the north is expected Friday night and Saturday, with a
northward or north-northwestward motion over the western Atlantic
continuing through early next week.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Franklin is expected to become a hurricane on
Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 1000 mb
(29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 242048
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM AST Thu Aug 24 2023

Since the prior advisory, Franklin's appearance has not changed
appreciably, with deep convection continuing to pulse near and to
the east of the low-level circulation center. The last few center
fixes from the earlier Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission
showed the tropical storm has continued to turn eastward, though
some of this motion might also be a reflection of the center being
dragged in the general direction of the persistent convective
bursts. The initial intensity for this advisory remains at 50 kt,
out of respect of the earlier aircraft data, and is also close to
the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate. Another reconnaissance mission
will be in the storm tonight to provide an updated assessment of
Franklin.

As mentioned above, Franklin is now moving east-northeastward,
estimated at 060/6 kt. This relatively unusual motion for a tropical
cyclone in late August at such low latitude is a byproduct of a
large weakness still parked north of Franklin. This weakness is
thanks in part to a longwave trough, allowing the storm's motion to
be more influenced by a mid-level anticyclone currently located to
its south over the Caribbean Sea. After the next 24 hours or so, the
ridging begins to build in more to the east of the storm, resulting
in both a slowdown and sharp turn north or north-northwestward
between 24 to 48 hours. From there, Franklin takes a much more
climatological motion northward and then recurves
north-northeastward as it is steered between the subtropical ridge
to its west and a amplifying mid-latitude trough digging into the
Great Lakes region by the end of the forecast period. While there
remains some cross-track spread in the track guidance solutions as
Franklin makes its turn northward, both the latest ECMWF and GFS
solutions have closed the gap between their tracks, and the latest
NHC track only needed minor adjustments compared to the prior cycle.

As discussed this morning, Franklin is expected to slowly intensify
for the next 24-36 h as moderate vertical wind shear is expected to
be somewhat offset by warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures. After
Franklin makes its turn northward, a cutoff low is expected to drop
southwest of the storm, placing it in a more favorable upper-level
difluent flow pattern. The guidance this cycle is showing a bit
faster rate of intensification early on, so the intensity forecast
was raised slightly from 48-72 h, still showing a peak intensity
just shy of major hurricane intensity. This forecast is now in good
agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus aid, but is lower than
the more aggressive HAFS-A/B regional hurricane model forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 22.4N 68.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 22.6N 68.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 23.1N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 23.5N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 24.3N 66.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 25.6N 67.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 27.3N 67.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 31.0N 68.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 35.4N 66.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 242047
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM AST Thu Aug 24 2023

...FRANKLIN NOW MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 68.9W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 68.9 West. Franklin is
moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours, followed by a
slowdown and sharp turn to the north or north-northwest by the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Franklin is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Franklin is forecast to produce the following rainfall
totals through Thursday:

Hispaniola: An additional 1 to 3 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 1 to 3 inches, mainly across the eastern islands.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 242046
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
2100 UTC THU AUG 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 68.9W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 68.9W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 69.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 22.6N 68.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.1N 67.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 23.5N 66.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 24.3N 66.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 25.6N 67.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 27.3N 67.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 31.0N 68.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 35.4N 66.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 68.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 241450
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 24 2023

Franklin appears a little better organized this morning, with a
recent convective burst near the center with cloud tops as cold as
-80C. The morning Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission into
Franklin indicates the storm has intensified a bit, with peak flight
level winds of 62 kt at 850-mb, SFMR winds in the 50-55 kt range,
and a recent dropsonde just to the northeast of the center reported
a surface wind of 48 kt. The initial intensity based on this
data is set at 50 kt for this advisory.

Fixes from the aircraft indicate that Franklin has begun to move to
the northeast, with the motion estimated at 040/6 kt. This motion,
or even a bit more of a turn to the east-northeast, should continue
in the short-term as a weakness persists to the north of Franklin
and its motion is more driven by a weak mid-level ridge over the
eastern Caribbean Sea. By 48 hours, however, the mid-level ridging
is expected to become more pronounced east of the storm, leading to
a sharp turn to the north. The biggest change in the guidance this
cycle is a slower motion, especially in the first 48-60 hours. The
latest NHC track forecast is also slower, but not quite as slow as
the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids in this time period. Later on, the
track guidance continues to exhibit a fair amount of across track
spread in a west-to-east fashion. The ECMWF remains on the left side
of this guidance envelope, while the hurricane-regional models and
GFS remain on the right side. For now, the NHC track will favor the
right side of the guidance envelope, which happens to be near the
prior track forecast and HCCA consensus aid. On the forecast track,
Franklin should be passing by several hundred miles west of Bermuda
between days 4-5.

Franklin is continuing to gradually intensify this morning based on
the in-situ aircraft data. However, from the satellite structure,
the storm remains quite asymmetric due to about 20 kt of westerly
vertical wind shear. This shear is expected to persist for at least
another 36 hours, and only slow intensification is forecast over
this time span. After that, a much more favorable upper-level
pattern takes shape as an upper-level low cuts off to the southwest
of the tropical cyclone, and most of the guidance responds to this
change by showing more significant intensification. The NHC
intensity forecast follows this solution, bringing Franklin to near
major hurricane intensity in 96h, which remains near the higher end
of the intensity guidance this cycle.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 22.2N 69.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 22.6N 68.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 23.0N 67.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 23.4N 66.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 23.9N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 25.0N 66.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 26.6N 67.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 30.0N 68.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 34.5N 67.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 241447
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 24 2023

...FRANKLIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 69.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 69.9 West. Franklin is
moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) and a northeastward
to north-northeastward motion is anticipated over the next day or
so, followed by a sharp turn to the north in a couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours and Franklin could become a hurricane by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure measured by dropsonde data
is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Franklin is forecast to produce the following rainfall
totals through Thursday:

Hispaniola: An additional 1 to 3 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 1 to 3 inches, mainly across the eastern islands.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 240832
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

Franklin is pulling away from the Dominican Republic and the Turks
and Caicos, and appears to be gradually gaining strength. Satellite
images show deep convection increasing near and to the east of the
center, and the Air Force Hurricane Hunters reported that a partial
eyewall was developing on their last pass through the storm. The
initial intensity of 45 kt is based on the earlier reconnaissance
data and is also near the average of the various satellite intensity
estimates.

The tropical storm is moving northward at 11 kt and is being steered
by the western periphery of a mid-level ridge that is centered over
the central subtropical Atlantic. The ridge is expected to weaken
soon, and that should cause Franklin to turn northeastward and slow
down during the next couple of days. However, beyond that time, the
models show the ridge building back to the west, and the flow
between that feature and a mid- to upper-level trough over the
eastern U.S. should cause Franklin to bend back northward at a
slightly faster pace. The models have shifted a little to the left
this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that
direction and takes the system to the west of Bermuda early next
week.

Franklin appears to be on a gradual strengthening trend, and that is
expected to continue through the weekend as the storm remains over
warm waters, in a moist environment, and in generally moderate wind
shear conditions. All of the normally skillful intensity models
bring Franklin to hurricane strength in a few days, and the NHC
intensity forecast follows that theme. This forecast is similar to
the previous one and near the high end of the model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 21.9N 70.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 22.6N 69.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 23.2N 68.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 23.5N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 24.0N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 24.9N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 26.0N 67.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 29.4N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 33.5N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 240831
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

...FRANKLIN PULLING AWAY FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 70.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Turks and Caicos.

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued all
Tropical Storm Warnings for the Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 70.4 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the
northeast and then east-northeast with a decrease in forward speed
is forecast during the next couple of days. On the forecast track,
the center of Franklin will continue to move farther away from the
Dominican Republic and over the southwestern Atlantic into the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Franklin is expected to
become a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Franklin is forecast to produce the following rainfall
totals through Thursday:

Hispaniola: Additional 1 to 3 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 1 to 3 inches, mainly across the eastern islands.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 240831
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
0900 UTC THU AUG 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 70.4W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 70.4W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 70.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.6N 69.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 23.2N 68.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.0N 66.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 24.9N 66.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 26.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 29.4N 68.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 33.5N 68.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 70.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 240530
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

...FRANKLIN SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...
...HEAVY RAINS STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 70.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic south coast from Punta Palenque eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Dominican Republic entire north coast from Haiti border eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 21.6 North, longitude 70.5 West. Franklin is moving toward
the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the northeast
and then east-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is
forecast during the next couple of days. On the forecast track,
the center of Franklin will continue to move farther away from the
Dominican Republic and over the southwestern Atlantic into the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next
several days, and Franklin could be near hurricane strength by
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km),
primarily east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure from dropsonde data is 1001
mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is forecast to produce the following rainfall
totals through Thursday:

Hispaniola: Additional 1-3 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 1 to 3 inches, mainly across the eastern islands.

Puerto Rico: Up to an inch in western portions.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, primarily in gusts, are
expected to occur in portions of the Dominican Republic and Turks
and Caicos Islands during the next few hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 240253
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

Franklin is showing signs of intensification on the latest satellite
imagery with increasing deep convection near and southeast of the
center. This trend is confirmed by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft mission that has been flying through the storm
during the past few hours with maximum flight-level winds of 46 kt,
believable SFMR winds of at least 40 kt, and the central pressure
falling to 1002 mb. The initial wind speed is set to 40 kt as a
blend of the data.

The storm continues heading north-northeastward or 015/11 kt,
steered by a ridge over the eastern Caribbean. Franklin should move
around the northern periphery of the ridge, turning
east-northeastward tomorrow and slowing down by Friday. As the
remnants of Emily exit the central Atlantic, mid-level ridging
should build back northeast of Franklin, turning the cyclone
north-northwestward and northward this weekend. For such an unusual
August track, the model guidance is in reasonably good agreement,
and little change was made to the last NHC track forecast.

Moderate westerly shear is forecast to limit the strengthening rate
of Franklin during the next couple of days, though very warm waters
should allow for gradual intensification. In 2 or 3 days, an
upper-level trough should cutoff to the southwest of Franklin,
creating a lower shear and very diffluent flow pattern near the
storm. This environmental change will likely promote significant
strengthening by late this weekend, and Franklin is forecast to
become a powerful hurricane southwest of Bermuda. The new intensity
forecast is raised from the previous one at most time periods, and
the stronger regional hurricane models showing major hurricane
strength at long range are certainly reasonable possibilities.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Localized heavy rainfall from the outer bands of Franklin could
cause further isolated flash flooding through Thursday in vulnerable
areas of the Dominican Republic that already received torrential
rainfall.

2. Franklin is expected to continue to bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the Dominican Republic and the Turks and
Caicos Islands overnight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 21.2N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 22.3N 69.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 23.0N 68.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 23.3N 66.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 23.7N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 24.4N 65.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 25.8N 65.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 29.2N 67.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 33.0N 67.4W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 240252
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...FRANKLIN STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...
...FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 70.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic south coast from Punta Palenque eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Dominican Republic entire north coast from Haiti border eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 21.2 North, longitude 70.4 West. Franklin is moving toward
the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the northeast
and then east-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is
forecast on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center
of Franklin will continue to move farther away from the Dominican
Republic and then move over the southwestern Atlantic into the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next
several days, and Franklin could be near hurricane strength over the
southwestern Atlantic by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km),
primarily east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure from dropsonde data is 1002
mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is forecast to produce the following rainfall
totals through Thursday:

Hispaniola: Additional 1-3 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 1 to 3 inches, mainly across the eastern islands.

Puerto Rico: Up to an inch in western portions.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, primarily in gusts, are
expected to occur in portions of the Dominican Republic and Turks
and Caicos Islands overnight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 240251
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
0300 UTC THU AUG 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 70.4W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 70.4W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 70.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.3N 69.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.0N 68.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.3N 66.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.7N 65.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 24.4N 65.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.8N 65.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 29.2N 67.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 33.0N 67.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 70.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 232355
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...FRANKLIN NOW NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BUT THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 70.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic south coast from Punta Palenque eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Dominican Republic entire north coast from Haiti border eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 20.6 North, longitude 70.5 West. Franklin is moving toward
the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the northeast
and then east-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is forecast
on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of
Franklin will continue to move farther away from Dominican Republic
and then move over the southwestern Atlantic into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next several
days, and Franklin could be near hurricane strength over the
southwestern Atlantic by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure from dropsonde data is 1004
mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Thursday:

Dominican Republic: 6 to 12 inches, with locally higher amounts
around 16 inches, mainly across western and central portions.

Haiti: 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts near 8 inches,
mainly across eastern portions.

Turks and Caicos: 1 to 3 inches, mainly across the eastern islands.

Puerto Rico: Up to an inch, mainly across western portions.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
the Dominican Republic, and are expected to spread northward to the
Turks and Caicos Islands this evening.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of
Hispaniola in areas of onshore winds that should begin subsiding
this evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 232053
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

Franklin is in the process of emerging off the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, where surface observations recently showed a
subtle wind shift in the past couple of hours. Earlier, a NOAA
reconnaissance mission flew a counterclockwise route around the
eastern portion of Hispaniola, finding a peak 700-mb wind of 51 kt
at about the time of the prior advisory. An ASCAT-B pass at around
the same time also showed a decent swath of tropical-storm-force
winds along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic. While
Franklin has been inland for some time now, given the lack of much
other data, its winds will remain 35 kt for this advisory. An
Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission is soon set to take off
and should provide more data this evening.

Franklin's motion is now estimated to be north-northeastward at
015/11 kt. A large weakness in the flow north of Franklin should
allow the storm to be steered by mid-level ridging nosing back into
the eastern Caribbean in the short-term, leading to a rather
unusual east-northeastward motion over the next 24-48 hours. Then,
after the remnants of Emily move out of the way, additional ridging
should build back east of Franklin, blocking it from an immediate
track out to sea. The track guidance all show the cyclone bending
back northward for the remainder of the forecast period. While the
track guidance generally agree on this evolution, the details on
when and how sharply this turn is remain to be ironed out.
Ultimately, the consensus aids have changed little this afternoon,
even if the spread in the ensemble guidance is larger than normal,
and the NHC track is very similar to the prior one throughout the
forecast period.

The biggest hindrance limiting Franklin's initial prospects for
reintensification is continued moderate westerly vertical wind shear
between 15-25 kt for the next 24-48 hours. However, sea-surface
temperatures will be very warm along the forecast track, so this
shear should not be enough to preclude slow intensification during
that time span. Afterwards, an upper-level trough is expected to
cutoff to the southwest of Franklin as the cyclone begins to pivot
northward, and the storm should find itself in a more favorable
upper-level environment. Thus, a faster intensification rate is
anticipated between 72-96 h and Franklin is still expected to become
a significant hurricane by the end of the forecast period. The
intensity forecast is in good agreement with the consensus aids, but
remains lower than some of the more aggressive hurricane-regional
models (HWRF, HAFS-A/B).

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across much of
Hispaniola into Thursday, which is expected to produce significant
and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding as well
as mudslides, particularly over the central Dominican Republic.

2. Franklin is bringing tropical storm conditions to portions of the
Dominican Republic, where Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect,
and tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the Turks
and Caicos Islands tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 19.8N 70.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...ON THE COAST
12H 24/0600Z 21.4N 70.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 22.5N 68.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 23.0N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 23.3N 66.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 23.8N 65.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 24.6N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 28.0N 67.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 31.6N 67.4W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 232047
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...FRANKLIN EMERGING OFF THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...
...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUING OVER
HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 70.6W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the south
coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haiti border eastward to
Punta Palenque.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic south coast from Punta Palenque eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Dominican Republic entire north coast from Haiti border eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 70.6 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to
the northeast and then east-northeast with a decrease in forward
speed is forecast Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Franklin will move farther off the north coast of the
Dominican Republic and then move over the southwestern
Atlantic into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and
Franklin could be near hurricane strength over the southwestern
Atlantic by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Thursday:

Dominican Republic: 6 to 12 inches, with locally higher amounts
around 16 inches, mainly across western and central portions.

Haiti: 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts near 8 inches,
mainly across eastern portions.

Turks and Caicos: 1 to 3 inches, mainly across the eastern islands.

Puerto Rico: Up to an inch, mainly across western portions.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
the Dominican Republic, and are expected to spread northward to the
Turks and Caicos Islands this evening.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of
Hispaniola in areas of onshore winds that should begin subsiding
this evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 232046
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
2100 UTC WED AUG 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 70.6W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 70.6W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 70.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.4N 70.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.5N 68.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 23.0N 67.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.3N 66.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 23.8N 65.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 24.6N 65.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 28.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 31.6N 67.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 70.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 231757
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...FRANKLIN OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...
...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER
HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 70.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the entire
south coast of Haiti from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the Dominican
Republic border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Dominican Republic entire north coast from Haiti border eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests in Haiti should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located inland over the Dominican Republic near latitude 19.2 North,
longitude 70.7 West. Franklin is now moving toward the
north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A continued north-northeast
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a northeast to
east-northeast motion with a decrease in forward speed Thursday and
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin will move off
the north coast of the Dominican Republic later this afternoon and
then move over the southwestern Atlantic into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight, but
gradual strengthening could begin by Thursday. Franklin could be
near or at hurricane strength over the southwestern Atlantic by
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Thursday:

Dominican Republic: 6 to 12 inches, with locally higher amounts
around 16 inches, mainly across western and central portions.

Haiti: 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts near 8 inches,
mainly across eastern portions.

Turks and Caicos: 1 to 3 inches, mainly across the eastern islands.

Puerto Rico: Up to an inch, mainly across western portions.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
Hispaniola, and are expected to spread northward to the Turks
and Caicos Islands later today.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of
Hispaniola in areas of onshore winds.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/R. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 231446
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

Franklin's center appears to have made landfall a little to the
south of Barahona, Dominican Republic, shortly before 1200 UTC, and
it is now moving northward over the mountainous terrain of the
country. Heavy rains have likely overspread much of Hispaniola,
although the deepest convection is occurring along the south-central
coast of the island. It is assumed that the maximum winds have
decreased now that the center is over land, and the initial
intensity is set at 35 kt, which is close to the latest UW-CIMSS
AiDT and D-PRINT estimates.

Franklin's speed has picked up a bit, and it is moving toward the
north (005 degrees) at 11 kt. The storm continues to move
northward through a break in the subtropical ridge, but it is
expected to turn northeastward in the next 24-36 hours when it
becomes positioned near the southern extent of a large mid-latitude
trough over the western Atlantic. Then, in about 3 days, the
central Atlantic ridge is expected to strengthen and block
Franklin's eastward progress, forcing the storm to turn toward the
north by days 4 and 5. The track guidance is tightly clustered
during the first 60-72 hours of the forecast, and the NHC track
forecast is very close to the previous prediction and the various
consensus aids. After 72 hours, the guidance suggests that
the northward turn may be a little delayed. In response, the NHC
track has been shifted a bit to the east of the previous forecast at
days 4 and 5.

Franklin will still be affected by moderate-to-strong
west-southwesterly shear when it moves off the coast of Hispaniola
later today, so it will likely take some time for the circulation
to reorganize itself after moving over the rugged terrain.
Otherwise, environmental conditions should support gradual
strengthening starting in about 24 hours. In about 3 days,
a developing upper-level low near the Bahamas is likely to provide
a more favorable diffluent environment aloft over Franklin,
potentially fostering more significant strengthening. Although
there is a fairly wide range of intensity possibilities in the
deterministic and ensemble intensity guidance on days 3-5, the
overall guidance envelope has been trending higher. The NHC
intensity forecast follows that tendency and is higher than the
previous forecast on days 4 and 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across much of
Hispaniola into Thursday, which is expected to produce significant
and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding as well as
mudslides, particularly over central Hispaniola.

2. Franklin is bringing tropical storm conditions to portions of the
Dominican Republic and Haiti, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in
effect, and tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
the Turks and Caicos Islands later today or tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 18.9N 70.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER DOMINICAN REPUB.
12H 24/0000Z 20.5N 70.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 24/1200Z 22.1N 69.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 22.8N 68.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 23.1N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 23.4N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 24.3N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 27.3N 66.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 31.1N 67.6W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 231445
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...FRANKLIN'S CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...FLOODING RAINS DRENCHING HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 70.9W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Dominican Republic entire north coast from Haiti border eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located inland over the Dominican Republic near latitude 18.9
North, longitude 70.9 West. Franklin is moving toward the north
near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is
expected later today, followed by a northeast to east-northeast
motion with a decrease in forward speed Thursday and Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of Franklin will move off the north
coast of the Dominican Republic later today and then move over the
southwestern Atlantic into weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through
tonight, but gradual strengthening could begin by Thursday.
Franklin could be near or at hurricane strength over the
southwestern Atlantic by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Thursday:

Dominican Republic: 6 to 12 inches, with locally higher amounts
around 16 inches, mainly across western and central portions.

Haiti: 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts near 8 inches,
mainly across eastern portions.

Turks and Caicos: 1 to 3 inches, mainly across the eastern islands.

Puerto Rico: Up to an inch, mainly across western portions.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
Hispaniola, and are expected to spread northward to the Turks
and Caicos Islands later today.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of
Hispaniola in areas of onshore winds.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 231445
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
1500 UTC WED AUG 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 70.9W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 70.9W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 71.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.5N 70.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.1N 69.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.8N 68.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.1N 67.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.4N 66.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 24.3N 65.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 27.3N 66.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 31.1N 67.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 70.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 231145
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...FRANKLIN MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR BARAHONA...
...VERY HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 71.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM SSW OF BARAHONA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Dominican Republic entire north coast from Haiti border eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located very near the southern coast of the Dominican Republic near
latitude 17.9 North, longitude 71.2 West. Franklin is moving toward
the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a north-northeastward motion is
expected for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the
northeast and east-northeast on Thursday. On the forecast track,
the center of Franklin is expected to cross the island of Hispaniola
today and emerge over the southwestern Atlantic waters later today
or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is likely today while Franklin moves over Hispaniola,
followed by re-strengthening beginning on Thursday after the center
moves over the Atlantic.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 37 mph (60 km/h) was recently
reported at San Miguel near Santo Domingo.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to
10 inches, with higher amounts around 15 inches mainly across
central portions of Hispaniola into Thursday. Additional rainfall
totals of 1 to 2 inches, with storm total maxima of 4 inches, are
expected across Puerto Rico through tonight.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within the
warning area on the south coast of Hispaniola, and are expected to
spread northward today and tonight.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of
Hispaniola in areas of onshore winds.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 230859
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

Franklin's cloud pattern continues to become gradually better
organized with a large convective band evident over the eastern
semicircle of the circulation. There is still some westerly shear
over the system, and most of the deep convection is confined to the
northeast and southeast quadrants of the storm. Franklin appears to
be producing high-level anticyclonic outflow which is being undercut
by westerlies just below the outflow level. Subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, and most of the
objective estimates are in this range as well. A scatterometer
overpass from several hours ago indicated maximum winds near 40 kt.
The current intensity is set at 45 kt.

Although the center remains difficult to locate, satellite center
fixes from TAFB and SAB and continuity suggest a motion of about
010/9 kt. Franklin is moving through a weakness in the mid-level
subtropical ridge. During the next couple of days, the cyclone is
forecast to turn toward the east-northeast and move along the
northwestern side of a mid-level anticyclone, and south of a
higher-latitude trough. In 3 to 5 days, as the trough lifts out and
a mid-level ridge to the west and northwest of Franklin builds
slightly, the system is expected to turn northward and
north-northwestward. The official track forecast is again close to
the HCCA consensus and very similar to the previous advisory's
prediction.

Land interaction with the mountains of Hispaniola today are likely
to disrupt Franklin's circulation, and the amount of weakening
shown by the NHC short-term intensity forecast may be conservative.
After the cyclone moves over the Atlantic, strengthening is
anticipated. However, the global models show significant shear
associated with an upper-level cyclone over the southwestern
Atlantic near 70W in 3-5 days, and this is also indicated in the
SHIPS guidance. Because of this, the official intensity forecast
is near the low end of the model guidance and similar to the LGEM
prediction. This is just slightly higher than the previous
official forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across much of
Hispaniola into Thursday. The heavy rainfall is expected to produce
significant and potentially life-threatening flash and urban
flooding as well as mudslides, particularly over central Hispaniola
today.

2. Franklin is bringing tropical storm conditions to portions of the
Dominican Republic and Haiti, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in
effect, and tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
the Turks and Caicos Islands later today or tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 17.4N 71.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 19.0N 71.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/0600Z 21.1N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 22.2N 69.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 22.7N 68.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 23.0N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 23.3N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 25.8N 66.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 29.5N 68.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 230857
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...FRANKLIN NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC..
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
LIKELY OVER HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 71.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Dominican Republic entire north coast from Haiti border eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 71.3 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a
north-northeastward motion is expected for the next day or so,
followed by a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast on
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected
to cross the island of Hispaniola today and emerge over the
southwestern Atlantic waters later today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is likely today while Franklin moves over Hispaniola,
followed by re-strengthening beginning on Thursday after the center
moves over the Atlantic.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to
10 inches, with higher amounts around 15 inches mainly across
central portions of Hispaniola into Thursday. Additional rainfall
totals of 1 to 2 inches, with storm total maxima of 4 inches, are
expected across Puerto Rico through tonight.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely beginning within the
warning area on the south coast of Hispaniola, and are expected to
spread northward today and tonight.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of
Hispaniola in areas of onshore winds.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 230856
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
0900 UTC WED AUG 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 71.3W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 71.3W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 71.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 71.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.1N 70.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.2N 69.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 22.7N 68.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 23.3N 66.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 25.8N 66.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 29.5N 68.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 71.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 230607
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
LIKELY ON HISPANIOLA THROUGH TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 71.4W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Dominican Republic entire north coast from Haiti border eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 71.4 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue the next day or so, followed by a turn toward
the northeast by Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Franklin is expected to approach the southern coast of Hispaniola
tonight, cross the island on Wednesday, and then emerge over the
southwestern Atlantic waters late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple
of days while Franklin moves near and across Hispaniola. Some
strengthening is possible Friday as Franklin moves farther northeast
over the southwestern Atlantic waters.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to
10 inches, with higher amounts around 15 inches mainly across
central portions of Hispaniola through Wednesday. Rainfall totals of
1 to 3 inches, with storm total maxima of 4 inches, are expected
across Puerto Rico through Wednesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the
warning area this morning and continue through today. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands
tonight.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of
Hispaniola in areas of onshore winds.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 230245
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

The satellite presentation of Franklin has improved since the last
advisory. Recent Proxy Vis imagery suggest that the low-level
circulation has become better defined, although there is still some
question exactly where the center is. The overall cloud pattern
suggests the low-level center is closer to a recent burst of deep
convection, closer to the mid-level circulation found by the last
NOAA reconnaissance mission. A blend of subjective and objective
satellite estimates remain near 35 kt for this advisory, which is
in agreement with what NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft found
earlier. Therefore, the intensity will remain 35 kt for this
advisory.

The system looks to have finally started a northward motion towards
the island of Hispaniola, moving at 8 kt. The track guidance
continues to be in fairly good agreement with a northward motion
through tomorrow and then a northeastward course near the end of
the work week due to broad troughing located over the western
Atlantic. By days 4 and 5, a stronger mid-level ridge develops over
the central Atlantic, with Franklin expected to turn back to the
north by the end of the forecast period. Given the uncertainty in
the center position, the current NHC forecast track lies near the
previous forecast, which is also near the HCCA corrected consensus
aid.

The new intensity forecast is fairly similar to the previous
advisory. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day
or so due to land interaction with Hispaniola and moderate wind
shear. Gradual strengthening is anticipated after Franklin emerges
north of Hispaniola due to warm waters but still notable shear.
For days 4 and 5, when Franklin is still over the very warm western
Atlantic waters, wind shear should decrease slightly, and
strengthening is forecast, with the system becoming a hurricane by
the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast after day 3 is
slightly higher than the previous advisory, but lower than the
stronger HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across much of
Hispaniola into Thursday. The heavy rainfall is expected to produce
significant and potentially life-threatening flash and urban
flooding as well as mudslides, particularly over central Hispaniola
through Wednesday.

2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, where Tropical Storm
Warnings are in effect, beginning later tonight and continuing
through Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 16.4N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 17.6N 71.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 20.0N 70.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 21.5N 69.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 22.3N 68.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 22.6N 67.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 23.1N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 24.9N 66.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 28.7N 68.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 230244
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
LIKELY ON HISPANIOLA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 71.4W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Dominican Republic entire north coast from Haiti border eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 71.4 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue the next day or so, followed by a turn toward
the northeast by Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Franklin is expected to approach the southern coast of Hispaniola
tonight, cross the island on Wednesday, and then emerge over the
southwestern Atlantic waters late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple
of days while Franklin moves near and across Hispaniola. Some
strengthening is possible Friday as Franklin moves farther
northeast over the southwestern Atlantic waters.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to
10 inches, with higher amounts around 15 inches mainly across
central portions of Hispaniola through Wednesday. Rainfall totals of
1 to 3 inches, with storm total maxima of 4 inches, are expected
across Puerto Rico through Wednesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the
warning area tonight and continue through Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands Wednesday
night.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of
Hispaniola in areas of onshore winds.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 230244
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
0300 UTC WED AUG 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 71.4W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 71.4W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 71.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.6N 71.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.0N 70.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.5N 69.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.3N 68.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.6N 67.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.1N 67.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 24.9N 66.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 28.7N 68.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 71.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 222346
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING POSSIBLE ON HISPANIOLA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 71.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Dominican Republic entire north coast from Haiti border eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 71.4 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northeast by Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Franklin is expected to approach the southern coast of Hispaniola
tonight, cross the island on Wednesday, and then emerge over the
southwestern Atlantic waters late Wednesday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days while Franklin moves near and across Hispaniola. Some
strengthening is possible late Thursday into Friday as Franklin
moves farther northeast over the southwestern Atlantic waters.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure on dropsonde data is 1002 mb
(29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to
10 inches, with isolated higher amounts up to 15 inches across
portions of Hispaniola through Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 1 to
3 inches, with storm total maxima of 6 inches, are expected across
Puerto Rico and Vieques into Thursday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the
warning area tonight and continue into Wednesday Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands Wednesday
night.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of
Hispaniola in areas of onshore winds.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 222045
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

Franklin is not a healthy tropical cyclone--and there is still some
question if it even is a tropical cyclone. A NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft investigating the system found a broad low-level
cyclonic wind field exposed to the west of the deep convection, but
this feature is well to the west of where we would have expected the
center to be. At the same time, developing deep convection with
some mid-level turning is noted about 90 n mi to the east, which
would more closely follow persistence from previous forecasts.
Either way, Franklin is not well organized, and for now the initial
position is held closer to the convection in case a new center
re-forms in that area. In fact, a dropsonde recently released by
the NOAA crew near the convection measured a surface pressure
of 1003 mb with winds of 32 kt, giving additional credence that a
new center could be forming. The crew also reported that the SFMR
winds were running too high, and the highest 850-mb flight-level
wind was 41 kt, suggesting that Franklin's initial intensity is
probably down to about 35 kt.

The smoothed 12-hour motion remains northwestward (320 degrees) at
6 kt. The track model guidance continues to insist that Franklin
will move slowly northward and then northeastward during the next 3
days or so, toward broad troughing located over the western
Atlantic. This track should take Franklin northward across
Hispaniola during the next 12-36 hours, with the system then
turning northeastward over the western Atlantic. By days 4 and 5,
a shortwave trough is expected to amplify near the northeastern
U.S. while a stronger mid-level ridge develops over the central
Atlantic, likely causing Franklin to turn back to the north by the
end of the forecast period. Despite the possibility of center
re-formations, which could cause Franklin's track to jump around,
the model guidance is in good agreement on this general forecast
scenario, even if all the details are not yet ironed out.

The new intensity forecast probably has the biggest change from the
previous advisory, at least in the short term. Little change in
strength is expected during the next 48 hours or so due to
Franklin's current disheveled state and its expected crossing of the
high terrain of Hispaniola on Wednesday. Once Franklin moves over
the western Atlantic waters, a more diffluent upper-level
environment could foster some intensification, and the NHC forecast
continues to show the system becoming a hurricane by the end of the
5-day forecast period. This forecast remains close to the HCCA and
IVCN consensus aids.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico into Thursday. The heavy rainfall may
produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as river rises and
mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and potentially
life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, where Tropical Storm
Warnings are in effect, beginning later tonight and continuing
through Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 15.8N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 17.0N 71.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 19.1N 70.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER HISPANIOLA
36H 24/0600Z 20.9N 70.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 24/1800Z 22.0N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 22.5N 68.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 22.9N 67.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 24.3N 66.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 27.6N 67.7W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 222044
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...FRANKLIN POISED TO BRING FLOODING RAINS TO HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 71.4W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Dominican Republic entire north coast from Haiti border eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 71.4 West. Franklin is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward
the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward
the northeast by Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Franklin is expected to approach the southern coast of Hispaniola
tonight, cross the island on Wednesday, and then emerge over the
southwestern Atlantic waters late Wednesday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days while Franklin moves near and across Hispaniola. Some
strengthening is possible late Thursday into Friday as Franklin
moves farther northeast over the southwestern Atlantic waters.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure on dropsonde data is 1002 mb
(29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to
10 inches, with isolated higher amounts up to 15 inches across
portions of Hispaniola through Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 1 to
3 inches, with storm total maxima of 6 inches, are expected across
Puerto Rico and Vieques into Thursday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the
warning area tonight and continue into Wednesday Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands Wednesday
night.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of
Hispaniola in areas of onshore winds.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 222043
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
2100 UTC TUE AUG 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 71.4W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 71.4W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 71.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.0N 71.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 10SW 10NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.1N 70.9W...OVER HISPANIOLA
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 0SW 10NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.9N 70.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 69.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 22.5N 68.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.9N 67.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 24.3N 66.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 27.6N 67.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 71.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 221735
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING FRANKLIN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 71.4W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has upgraded the Tropical
Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the entire northern and
eastern coast from the Haiti border eastward and southward to Isla
Saona.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Dominican Republic entire north coast form Haiti border eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Dominican Republic should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 71.4 West. Satellite
images indicate that a new center may be forming farther west, and
a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is current investigating
Franklin's wind field to determine if that is the case. Franklin
is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward
the north is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the
northeast by Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Franklin is expected to approach the southern coast of Hispaniola
today, cross the island on Wednesday, and then emerge over the
southwestern Atlantic waters late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Franklin
reaches Hispaniola. Some weakening is likely while the storm moves
across Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce additional rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with storm total maxima of 6 inches,
across Puerto Rico and Vieques into Thursday. Across portions of
Hispaniola, rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher
amounts up to 15 inches, are expected through Wednesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the
warning area tonight and continue into Wednesday, and are possible
within the watch area in Hispaniola beginning Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands late
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to
the east of where the center makes landfall in Hispaniola.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 221445
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

It is unclear this morning if Franklin still has a well-defined
center of circulation. Visible satellite images suggest that broad
low-level turning is occurring well to the west of the bulk of
Franklin's deep convection, and there is no clear evidence that a
center exists near, or that a new center if re-forming beneath, the
convection. It appears that scatterometer will miss Franklin and
be of no help in assessing the wind field, but a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this
afternoon. For now, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt, which
is right in the middle of the various subjective and objective
satellite estimates.

If Franklin does still have a center, it is assumed to have jumped
or re-formed a bit to the west where there is new convection. This
position gives the storm an overall motion over the past 12 hours
toward the northwest (325 degrees) at 6 kt. Franklin is positioned
within the southern extent of a large mid-level trough, which
includes a mid-/upper-level low centered south of Bermuda. While
the steering flow is weak, this should cause Franklin to move slowly
northward and then northeastward for the next 4 days or so. By day
5, a new shortwave trough is likely to develop over New England,
with ridging strengthening over the central Atlantic, and Franklin
is forecast to turn back toward the north at that time. Largely
because of the adjustment in the initial position, all of the track
guidance has shifted westward on this cycle. The NHC track
forecast has also been moved westward, although it is on the
eastern side of the guidance envelope and fairly close to the
typically-reliable HCCA consensus aid. That said, there is
greater-than-usual uncertainty in Franklin's forecast track given
potential re-formations of the center.

Moderate-to-strong westerly shear is expected to continue over
Franklin for the next 4 days or so. In addition, the system is
forecast to move over the rugged terrain of Hispaniola within the
next 24-36 hours. As a result, little change in strength is
anticipated before Franklin reaches Hispaniola, and some weakening
is likely while it is crossing the island. Some intensification
is then noted in the 3-5 day period when environmental conditions
begin to become a little more conducive for strengthening. The NHC
intensity forecast is near the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids for
much of the 5-day forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola into Thursday. The heavy rainfall may
produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as river rises and
mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and potentially
life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, where Tropical Storm
Warnings are in effect, beginning later today and continuing through
Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 15.5N 71.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 16.5N 71.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 18.3N 70.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...S COAST OF DOM REPUB
36H 24/0000Z 20.4N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 24/1200Z 22.1N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 22.9N 68.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 23.3N 67.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 24.2N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 27.1N 67.1W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 221444
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
1500 UTC TUE AUG 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 71.1W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 71.1W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 71.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.5N 71.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.3N 70.9W...SOUTH COAST OF DOMIN REPUB
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.4N 70.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.1N 69.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.9N 68.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.3N 67.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 24.2N 66.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 27.1N 67.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 71.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 221444
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 71.1W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Isla Saona
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire north and east coast from the Haiti
border eastward and southward to Isla Saona
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Dominican Republic should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 71.1 West. Franklin is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward
the north is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the
northeast by Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Franklin is expected to approach the southern coast of Hispaniola
today, cross the island on Wednesday, and then emerge over the
southwestern Atlantic waters late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast before Franklin reaches
Hispaniola. Some weakening is likely while the storm moves across
Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce additional rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with storm total maxima of 6 inches,
across Puerto Rico and Vieques into Thursday. Across portions of
Hispaniola, rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher
amounts up to 15 inches, are expected through Wednesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the
warning area tonight and continue into Wednesday, and are possible
within the watch area in Hispaniola beginning Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands late
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to
the east of where the center makes landfall in Hispaniola.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 221152
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...POORLY ORGANIZED FRANKLIN DRIFTING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 70.7W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Isla Saona
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire north and east coast from the Haiti
border eastward and southward to Isla Saona
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Dominican Republic should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin is
estimated near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 70.7 West. Franklin
is drifting toward the west near 3 mph (5 km/h). The system should
turn northward today, and a general northward motion is expected
on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is
forecast to reach the southern coast of Hispaniola on Wednesday,
traverse the island and move off of the northern coast on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before Franklin reaches
Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce additional rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with local storm total maxima of 6 inches,
across Puerto Rico and Vieques into Thursday. Across portions of
Hispaniola, rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher
amounts up to 15 inches, are expected through Wednesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the
warning area tonight and into Wednesday. and are possible within
the watch area beginning Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to
the east of where the center makes landfall in Hispaniola.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 220900
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

Although deep convection has increased overnight in areal extent
with frigid cloud top temperatures of -84 Celsius, Franklin remains
a somewhat disorganized tropical cyclone. Unfortunately, neither
the METOP-B and C scatterometer passes (both misses) or microwave
data were helpful in determining with confidence the center of
circulation. Best estimate is near the new deep convective bursts
near the northwest edge of the convective overcast. The initial
intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory and is supported by
the TAFB and SAB satellite intensity estimates, and a blend of the
latest UW-CIMSS objective techniques.

The deep-layer flow southeast of a mid-Atlantic trough to the
northwest of Franklin is producing moderate southwesterly vertical
wind shear over the cyclone. Statistical-dynamical ECMWF and GFS
SHIPS guidance indicate that Franklin will remain in a harsh shear
environment for next several days, and interaction with the higher
mountainous elevations as it traverses Hispaniola should further
disrupt the storm's circulation. By the weekend, however, the
global models are in good agreement that the upper wind pattern
will become more conducive for strengthening and the official
forecast shows Franklin become a hurricane over the southwest
Atlantic by day 4.

The initial motion is estimated to be an uncertain northwestward
drift at 325/3 kt. Intermittent deep bursts of convection due to a
moderate deep-layer wind shear environment can induce surface
center reformation, particularly where the coldest cloud top
temperatures and the mid-level circulation center resides. Franklin
should remain in a weak synoptic steering current due to the
previously mentioned high amplitude mid-atlantic trough in the
western Atlantic for the next 12 hours or so. A subtropical high
eventually builds in to the east of Franklin, which should
induce a northward motion, and then a northeastward track after the
48 hour period. Toward the end of the forecast period, Franklin is
expected to turn generally northward as a mid-latitude shortwave
pulse moves off of the eastern seaboard on Sunday and strengthens
the weakness over the western Atlantic. The forecast track lies
between the TVCA simple multi-model consensus the the HFIP corrected
consensus aid, and is slightly faster (along-track spread) than the
previous advisory between the 48 and 72 hour periods.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola into Thursday. The heavy rainfall may
produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as river rises and
mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and potentially
life-threatening flash flooding is possible today into Wednesday.

2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti beginning today
where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 14.8N 70.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 15.7N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 17.3N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 19.3N 69.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...ALONG COAST
48H 24/0600Z 21.6N 68.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 22.7N 67.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 23.2N 66.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 23.6N 64.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 26.3N 64.6W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 220900
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...FRANKLIN STILL DRIFTING SLOWLY WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 70.3W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Isla Saona
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire north and east coast from the Haiti
border eastward and southward to Isla Saona
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Dominican Republic should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 70.3 West. Franklin is
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). The system
should turn northward today, and a generally northward motion is
expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Franklin is forecast to reach the southern coast of Hispaniola on
Wednesday, traverse the island and move off of the northern coast on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast before Franklin reaches Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce additional rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with local storm total maxima of 6 inches,
across Puerto Rico and Vieques into Thursday. Across portions of
Hispaniola, rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher
amounts up to 15 inches, are expected through Wednesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the
warning area tonight and into Wednesday. and are possible within
the watch area beginning Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to
the east of where the center makes landfall in Hispaniola.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 220859
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
0900 UTC TUE AUG 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 70.3W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 70.3W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 70.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.7N 70.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.3N 70.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.3N 69.7W...ON COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.6N 68.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.7N 67.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 23.2N 66.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 23.6N 64.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 26.3N 64.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 70.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 220543
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...POORLY-ORGANIZED FRANKLIN DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 70.4W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Isla Saona
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire north and east coast from the Haiti
border eastward and southward to Isla Saona
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Dominican Republic should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 70.4 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north-northwest near 4 mph (6 km/h). The system
should turn northward today, and a generally northward motion is
expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Franklin is forecast to reach the southern coast of Hispaniola on
Wednesday, traverse the island and move off of the northern coast on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before Franklin reaches
Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches, across Puerto
Rico through the middle of the week. Across portions of Hispaniola,
rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher amounts up
to 15 inches, are expected. Significant and potentially
life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into Wednesday
across Hispaniola.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the
warning area tonight and into Wednesday. and are possible within
the watch area beginning Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to
the east of where the center makes landfall in Hispaniola.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 220252
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023

Franklin is not a well-organized tropical cyclone at this time. A
NOAA reconnaissance aircraft was in the system earlier this evening
and found an elongated low-level circulation, with possible
multiple surface centers. Franklin is also fairly asymmetric on
satellite imagery, with convection only on the east side of the
storm, near the mid-level center. The initial intensity will
remain at 45 kt for this advisory, which is in between the higher
TAFB and lower SAB intensity estimates. A NOAA G-IV mission should
hopefully provide more in-situ data overnight.

The tropical storm has been meandering in the eastern Caribbean for
much of the day. There is the potential that the center may try to
reform to the northeast, near a new burst of convection and the
mid-level center, but this is an uncertain evolution. Eventually,
mid-level ridging will build to the east of Franklin, which should
allow the system to move more northward in the next 36 hours, and
then northeastward between 48-96 h. The NHC track forecast is
shifted slightly to the right in the short term, and it lies a
little east of the consensus aids given the potential reformation of
the center to the northeast.

Franklin is currently in an environment of moderate vertical wind
shear, which is disrupting the cyclone's organization. SHIPS
guidance shows that the shear will slightly decrease over the next
12-24 hours, which will allow for some intensification before it
reaches Hispaniola. After land interaction over Hispaniola, there
will be some weakening due to the mountainous terrain. After
Franklin emerges north of the island in the western Atlantic, the
forecast calls for some slight strengthening as it moves northeast,
then northward. The intensity forecast is fairly low confidence
given all the different environmental factors and land interaction,
but lies near the corrected consensus aids.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through the middle of the week. The heavy
rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as
river rises and mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and
potentially life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into
Wednesday.

2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti beginning on Tuesday
where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 14.5N 70.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 14.9N 70.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 16.3N 70.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 18.1N 70.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 20.1N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 21.6N 69.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 22.6N 67.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 23.7N 65.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 25.9N 65.8W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 220251
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023

...FRANKLIN MOVING SLOWLY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 70.2W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Isla Saona
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire north and east coast from the Haiti
border eastward and southward to Isla Saona
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Dominican Republic should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 70.2 West. Franklin is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). Franklin has
been meandering in the eastern Caribbean tonight. Franklin should
turn northward on Tuesday with this general motion continuing into
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is forecast
to reach the southern coast of Hispaniola by on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before Franklin reaches
Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches, across Puerto
Rico through the middle of the week. Across portions of Hispaniola,
rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher amounts up
to 15 inches, are expected. Significant and potentially
life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into Wednesday
across Hispaniola.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the
warning area on Tuesday night into Wednesday and are possible
within the watch area beginning Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to
the east of where the center makes landfall in Hispaniola.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 220251
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
0300 UTC TUE AUG 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 70.2W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 70.2W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 70.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.9N 70.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.3N 70.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.1N 70.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.1N 70.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.6N 69.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.6N 67.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 23.7N 65.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 25.9N 65.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 70.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 212344
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023

...NOAA AIRCRAFT FINDS FRANKLIN STATIONARY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 70.1W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Isla Saona
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire north and east coast from the Haiti
border eastward and southward to Isla Saona
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Dominican Republic should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 70.1 West. Franklin has
been meandering in the eastern Caribbean tonight, becoming nearly
stationary. Franklin should turn northward on Tuesday with this
general motion continuing into Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Franklin is forecast to reach the southern coast of
Hispaniola by early on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before Franklin reaches
Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches, across Puerto
Rico through the middle of the week. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10
inches, with isolated higher amounts up to 15 inches, will be
possible across portions of Hispaniola.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the
warning area on Tuesday and are possible within the watch area
beginning late Tuesday into Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to
the east of where the center makes landfall in Hispaniola.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 212049
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023

Franklin is not an especially well-organized tropical cyclone this
afternoon. The NOAA reconnaissance mission has been sampling the
storm for a large part of the afternoon, and found a center
to the south of where the position was estimated earlier today. In
addition, the winds on the southwest side of the circulation are
more diffuse, and overall the circulation is a bit more elongated
than what the plane found yesterday at this time. Peak 850-mb flight
level winds were at 48 kt just to the northwest of the circulation,
which supports an intensity between 40-45 kt after using a standard
reduction. The initial intensity will remain at 45 kt for this
advisory, which is also in between the higher TAFB and lower SAB
intensity estimates.

The tropical storm has been meandering today, and my best guess at
an initial motion is a drift south of due west at 265/4 kt. Given
the current elongated nature of the surface circulation, the short-
term track forecast is tricky, ranging from the GFS on the east side
of the guidance envelope that has a center reformation to the
northeast, and the CMC and ECMWF which are on the western side of
the guidance envelope. The steering currents are also poorly defined
currently due to a large mid-oceanic trough in the western Atlantic
disrupting the flow pattern. Mid-level ridging eventually builds in
to the east of Franklin, which should ultimately induce a northward
motion by 24-36 h, and then northeastward between 48-96 h, as a
mid-latitude trough reinforces the weakness to the north of the
storm. The track guidance has slowed down again compared to the
previous cycle, prolonging the time the system will remain over the
Caribbean Sea before it moves over Hispaniola. The NHC track
forecast is once again slower than the previous cycle and has also
been nudged a touch westward compared to the previous one, but is
now a bit east of the simple and corrected consensus aids.

Given Franklin's current structure, I am somewhat skeptical there
will be a lot of meaningful near-term intensification, especially
while moderate vertical wind shear continues to disrupt the
convective structure. However, both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS
guidance indicate that the shear will briefly drop under 10 kt in
about 24 hours, and when combined with warm 29 C sea-surface
temperatures, it still seems prudent to show some intensification
before Franklin moves inland over Hispaniola. Significant land
interaction over the higher terrain will then lead to weakening,
which could be underdone here given the current track over some of
the most mountainous terrain. After Franklin emerges into the
western Atlantic, another round of southwesterly shear may slow the
rate of reintensification, and the latest NHC intensity forecast is
a bit more subdued than the previous one, once again electing to
follow the HCCA consensus aid. Given the complex intensity factors
mentioned above, this is a low confidence forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through the middle of the week. The heavy
rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as
river rises and mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and
potentially life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into
Wednesday.

2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti beginning on Tuesday
where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 14.3N 70.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 14.3N 70.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 15.3N 71.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 17.2N 71.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 19.1N 70.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/0600Z 20.6N 70.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 24/1800Z 22.2N 68.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 23.6N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 25.6N 65.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 212048
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023

...FRANKLIN MEANDERING TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...
...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI
BEGINNING TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 70.1W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Isla Saona
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire north and east coast from the Haiti
border eastward and southward to Isla Saona
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Dominican Republic should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 70.1 West. Franklin is
moving slowly toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a slow
westward motion is expected through this evening. A sharp turn to
the north is expected on Tuesday with this general motion
continuing into Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Franklin is forecast to reach the southern coast of Hispaniola by
early on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before Franklin reaches
Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches, across Puerto
Rico through the middle of the week. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10
inches, with isolated higher amounts up to 15 inches, will be
possible across portions of Hispaniola.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the
warning area on Tuesday and are possible within the watch area
beginning late Tuesday into Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to
the east of where the center makes landfall in Hispaniola.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 212046
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
2100 UTC MON AUG 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 70.1W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 70.1W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 69.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.3N 70.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.3N 71.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.2N 71.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.1N 70.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.6N 70.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.2N 68.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 23.6N 66.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 25.6N 65.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 70.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 211755
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023

...NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING FRANKLIN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 70.1W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Isla Saona
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire north and east coast from the Haiti
border eastward and southward to Isla Saona
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Dominican Republic should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 70.1 West. Franklin is
moving toward the west near 4 mph (6 km/h) and a slow westward
motion is expected through this afternoon. A sharp turn to the
north is expected tonight or early Tuesday, and a generally
northward motion is expected later on Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Franklin is forecast to reach the southern
coast of Hispaniola by Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before Franklin reaches
Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches, across Puerto
Rico through the middle of the week. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10
inches, with isolated higher amounts up to 15 inches, will be
possible across portions of Hispaniola.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the
warning area on Tuesday and are possible within the watch area
beginning late Tuesday into Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to
the east of where the center makes landfall in Hispaniola.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 211445
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023

There are no lack of cold cloud tops associated with Tropical Storm
Franklin this morning. The structure on satellite consists of a
large bursting pattern, with cloud tops as cold as -90C close to and
just east of the estimated center. However, it is unclear if any of
this deep convection has resulted in structural improvement to
the storm, with the most recent microwave imagery from a SSMIS F-16
pass at 1007 UTC showing a chaotic structure, with evidence the
center remains near the western edge of this large convective
shield. The latest subjective satellite intensity estimates form
TAFB is unchanged from earlier this morning. Thus, the initial
intensity will remain 45 kt this advisory, which is also close to
the latest D-MINT and D-PRINT estimates from UW-CIMSS.

Franklin does appear to be slowing down a tad this morning while
moving westward, with the latest estimate at 270/5 kt. The track
forecast in the short-term is a bit problematic, with a large spread
in model solutions even at 12 h, much higher than the climatological
spread. This initial uncertainty may be related intensity
differences in the global models, with some of the stronger guidance
suggesting the tropical cyclone might reform further to the north
and east over the next 12-24 hours. Thereafter, a large weakness to
the north of Franklin, produced by a large mid-ocean trough draped
across the Western Atlantic, should allow the storm to begin moving
northward. A mid-latitude trough reinforces this weakness to the
north in 60-72h, allowing the storm to begin moving northeastward.
The most significant change in the guidance this cycle is the
majority are quite a bit slower than the prior cycle, and the NHC
forecast track was slowed down a bit, but not as much as some of the
consensus aids.

Currently, Franklin is experiencing some moderate 15-20 kt westerly
shear, which has paused its intensification for the time being.
However, this shear is forecast to gradual decrease as it begins to
move more northward, providing an opportunity for the tropical storm
to strengthen as it approaches Hispaniola. Some weakening appears
likely once the system moves over Hispaniola, especially if the
storm moves over the highest terrain in the Dominican Republic. By
Thursday, Franklin should be back over open waters in the Atlantic
Ocean and has an opportunity to start strengthening again. However,
the environment does not appear to be especially pristine, with the
ECMWF showing more southwesterly vertical wind shear than the GFS.
For now, its assumed this shear will not prevent slow
intensification, possibly because the storm should be moving in the
same direction as the shear vector, and the NHC intensity forecast
will still show Franklin becoming a hurricane towards the end of the
forecast period. This forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP
corrected consensus approach (HCCA) but remains lower than some of
the more aggressive regional-hurricane models (COAMPS-TC, HWRF).


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through the middle of the week. The
heavy rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well
as river rises and mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and
potentially life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into
Wednesday.

2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti beginning on Tuesday
where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 15.0N 70.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 15.2N 70.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 15.7N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 17.3N 70.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 19.2N 70.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/0000Z 21.2N 69.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 24/1200Z 22.8N 68.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 24.4N 65.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 26.4N 63.7W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 211441
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023

...FRANKLIN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 70.1W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Isla Saona
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire north and east coast from the Haiti
border eastward and southward to Isla Saona
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Dominican Republic should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 70.1 West. Franklin is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h) and a slow westward
motion is expected through this afternoon. A sharp turn to the
north is expected tonight or early Tuesday, and a generally
northward motion is expected later on Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Franklin is forecast to reach the southern
coast of Hispaniola by Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast before Franklin reaches Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches, across Puerto
Rico through the middle of the week. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10
inches, with isolated higher amounts up to 15 inches, will be
possible across portions of Hispaniola.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the
warning area on Tuesday and are possible within the watch area
beginning late Tuesday into Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to
the east of where the center makes landfall in Hispaniola.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 211440
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
1500 UTC MON AUG 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 70.1W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 70.1W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 69.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.2N 70.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.7N 71.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.3N 70.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.2N 70.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.2N 69.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.8N 68.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 24.4N 65.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 26.4N 63.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 70.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 211146
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
800 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

...FRANKLIN EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD TOWARDS HISPANIOLA
TOMORROW...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 69.6W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Isla Saona
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire north and east coast from the Haiti
border eastward and southward to Isla Saona
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Dominican Republic should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 69.6 West. Franklin is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward track is expected to continue today. A sharp
turn to the north is expected tonight or early Tuesday, and a
generally northward motion is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Franklin is forecast to reach the southern
coast of Hispaniola late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before Franklin reaches
Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches, across Puerto
Rico through the middle of the week. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10
inches, with isolated higher amounts up to 15 inches, will be
possible across portions of Hispaniola.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the
warning area on Tuesday and are possible within the watch area
beginning late Tuesday into Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to
the east of where the center makes landfall in Hispaniola.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 210842
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

Franklin's cloud pattern has not become significantly better
organized overnight. The system is producing several clusters of
bursting very deep convection, but convective banding features are
not well defined at this time. Based on microwave imagery, the
cyclone center is apparently located near the western edge of the
overall convective mass. The current intensity is held at 45 kt in
agreement with a subjective Dvorak satellite classification from
TAFB. This value is also supported by objective intensity estimates
from UW-CIMSS.

The storm continues moving generally westward, with a motion
estimate of 270/10 kt. Franklin's forecast track is somewhat
problematic. A weakness in the subtropical ridge is expected to
cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward in 24 hours or so.
This should result in Franklin crossing Hispaniola in the 48 hour
time frame. After moving into the Atlantic, Franklin should turn
northeastward while interacting with a mid-level cyclonic
circulation. By late in the forecast period, the mid-level cyclone
lifts out which could allow Franklin to turn more to the left.
However there is more than the usual amount of uncertainty in the
3-5 day track prediction, with lots of spread in the model guidance.
The official forecast, like the previous one, is near the middle of
the guidance envelope and close to the model consensus.

The flow on the south side of a broad upper-level trough to the
northwest of Franklin is causing moderate southwesterly vertical
wind shear over the storm. Dynamical guidance such as the SHIPS
model indicate that Franklin will remain in an environment of
moderate shear for the next several days, and the interaction with
the mountainous land mass of Hispaniola should temporarily disrupt
Franklin's circulation. The current thinking is that the shear will
not be strong enough to prevent the system from eventually becoming
a hurricane over the southwest Atlantic. The official intensity
forecast follows the model consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through the middle of the week. The
heavy rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well
as river rises and mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and
potentially life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into
Wednesday.

2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti beginning on Tuesday
where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 15.0N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 15.0N 70.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 15.3N 71.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 16.7N 71.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 18.8N 70.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 23/1800Z 20.9N 70.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 24/0600Z 22.5N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 24.5N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 26.0N 64.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 210839
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

...FRANKLIN LIKELY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 69.2W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Isla Saona
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire north and east coast from the Haiti
border eastward and southward to Isla Saona

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Dominican Republic should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 69.2 West. Franklin is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward track is expected to continue today. A sharp
turn to the north is expected tonight or early Tuesday, and a
generally northward motion is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Franklin is forecast to reach the southern
coast of Hispaniola late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast before Franklin reaches Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches, across Puerto
Rico through the middle of the week. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10
inches, with isolated higher amounts up to 15 inches, will be
possible across portions of Hispaniola.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the
warning area on Tuesday and are possible within the watch area
beginning late Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to
the east of where the center makes landfall in Hispaniola.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 210839
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
0900 UTC MON AUG 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 69.2W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 69.2W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 68.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.0N 70.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.3N 71.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.7N 71.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.8N 70.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.9N 70.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 22.5N 69.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 24.5N 66.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 26.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 69.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 210546
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
200 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

...FRANKLIN EXPECTED TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 68.8W
ABOUT 250 MI...305 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Isla Saona
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire north and east coast from the Haiti
border eastward and southward to Isla Saona

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Dominican Republic should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 68.8 West. Franklin is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward track is expected to continue today. A sharp
turn to the north is expected tonight, and a northward motion is
expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin
is forecast to reach the southern coast of Hispaniola late Tuesday
or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches, across Puerto Rico
through the middle of the week. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches,
with isolated higher amounts up to 12 inches, will be possible
across portions of Hispaniola.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the
warning area on Tuesday and are possible within the watch area
beginning late Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to
the east of where the center makes landfall in Hispaniola.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 210255
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

Deep convection continues to burst near and to the east of the
center of Franklin. Earlier NOAA aircraft fixes and more recent
microwave satellite data indicate that the center of Franklin is
located near the northwestern edge of the deep convection due to
moderate westerly shear. The latest Dvorak T-number from TAFB is
T3.0 (45 kt) and SAB provided a data T-number of T2.5 (35 kt). A
very recently arriving ASCAT pass revealed peak winds of 40-45 kt,
therefore the initial intensity has been raised to 45 kt.

Franklin is moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt. A slower
westward to west-northwest motion is forecast overnight. By late
Monday, a deepening trough over the western Atlantic is forecast to
cause Franklin to turn northwestward and then northward toward
Hispaniola. The tropical storm is forecast to pass over that
island Tuesday night, and then move off the north coast of
Hispaniola by early Wednesday. After that time, the amplifying
trough is forecast to turn Franklin northeastward. There is still
a fair amount of spread on where the northward turn will take place
and the official forecast remains near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

Franklin is expected to remain in an environment of moderate
westerly shear during the next couple of days, but it is not likely
to prevent some modest strengthening before Franklin reaches the
southern coast of Hispaniola. Interaction with the mountainous
terrain of Hispaniola is expected to cause some weakening. Once
Franklin moves into the western Atlantic, most of the intensity
guidance suggests additional strengthening is likely and the NHC
forecast follows suit. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of
the HFIP corrected consensus model and the IVCN multi-model
consensus aid.

Based on the current track forecast, a tropical storm warning
has been issued for the entire southern coastline of Haiti and the
Dominican Republic.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through the middle of the week. The
heavy rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well
as river rises and mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and
potentially life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into
Wednesday.

2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti beginning on Tuesday
where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 14.9N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 15.0N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 15.3N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 16.2N 71.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 18.1N 71.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 23/1200Z 20.0N 70.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 24/0000Z 21.9N 69.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 24.3N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 26.2N 64.4W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 210251
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

...FRANKLIN A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 68.3W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning along the south coast of the Dominican Republic from
the border with Haiti eastward to Isla Saona. A Tropical Storm
Watch has been issue for the eastern and northern coast of the
Dominican Republic from Isla Saona eastward and northward to the
northern border with Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the entire south coast
of Haiti from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the Dominican Republic
border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Isla Saona
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire north and east coast from the Haiti
border eastward and southward to Isla Saona

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Dominican Republic should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 68.3 West. Franklin is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward track is expected to continue into Monday. A
sharp turn to the north is expected Monday night and a northward
motion is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Franklin is forecast to reach the southern coast of Hispaniola late
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches, across Puerto Rico
through the middle of the week. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches,
with isolated higher amounts up to 12 inches, will be possible
across portions of Hispaniola.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the
warning area on Tuesday and are possible within the watch area
beginning late Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to
the east of where the center makes landfall in Hispaniola.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 210251
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
0300 UTC MON AUG 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 68.3W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 68.3W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 67.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.0N 70.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.3N 71.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.2N 71.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.1N 71.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.0N 70.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.9N 69.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 24.3N 67.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 26.2N 64.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 68.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 202358
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
800 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

...NOAA AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS FRANKLIN MAINTAINING STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 67.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF ISLA SAONA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border.
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Isla Saona.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Dominican Republic should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 67.8 West. Franklin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
west-northwestward track is expected to continue for the next day or
so followed by a sharp turn to the north. On the forecast track,
Franklin should approach the southern coast of Hispaniola on
Tuesday.

Data from NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum
sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure measured by NOAA reconnaissance
aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning late Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches, across Puerto Rico
through the middle of the week. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches,
with isolated higher amounts up to 12 inches, will be possible
across portions of Hispaniola.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 202057
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

This afternoon we have received a wealth of data from both a NOAA
reconnaissance mission and satellite imagery near the area of low
pressure located in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Earlier visible
satellite imagery showed the system had likely formed a tight
low-level vortex based on the earlier cloud motions before a
convective burst obscured the center. Scatterometer data that
clipped the system on the east side also showed winds near tropical
storm intensity. The NOAA aircraft flew through the system shortly
thereafter, and found the system had indeed formed a well-defined
center, with 950-mb flight level winds of 51 kt just to the
northeast of the center. All this information confirms that
Tropical Storm Franklin has formed this afternoon, with an initial
intensity set at 40 kt.

The initial motion is off to the west-northwest at 290/12 kt. Over
the next 24 hours this general motion should continue while the
system remains steered by a narrow mid-level ridge. Thereafter, a
large mid-ocean trough over the western Atlantic will produce a
pronounced weakness in this ridging, likely causing the tropical
storm to make a sharp turn northward, bringing the storm near or
over the large island of Hispaniola in about 48-60 h. Afterwards,
another mid-latitude trough is forecast to amplify southward,
maintaining this weakness, and resulting in Franklin turning
northeastward towards the end of the forecast period. There is a
decent amount of spread in the track guidance, related to just when
Franklin will make the initial northward turn. For this initial
forecast, the NHC track forecast will stick close to the track
consensus TVCN, which favors a track in between the latest ECMWF and
GFS solutions, favoring the GFS a bit more.

Intensity wise, Franklin may have to deal with a bit of westerly
wind shear in the short-term, limiting more robust intensification
early on. However, this shear drops off as the system makes its turn
northward towards Hispaniola a bit more intensification is shown
with a 55-kt intensity peak as Franklin approaches the coast. The
intensity forecast then is complicated by the fact that Franklin
will likely pass near or over the island sometime in the 2-3 day
time period, and some weakening is shown during this time.
However, the forecast environment after the system re-emerges into
the Western Atlantic looks mostly favorable, with reintensification
likely as long as the system is not too disrupted by the higher
terrain of Hispaniola. The NHC intensity forecast is in good
agreement with the consensus aids, and lies closest to the HFIP
corrected consensus approach through the forecast period.

Based on the current track forecast, a tropical storm watch has
been issued for the entire southern coastline of Haiti and the
Dominican Republic.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Franklin is forecast to approach Hispaniola late on Tuesday and
move across the island on Wednesday as a tropical storm, bringing a
risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous
waves along the coast.

2. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through the middle of the week. The heavy
rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as
river rises and mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and
potentially life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into
Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 14.6N 67.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 15.0N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 15.4N 70.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 15.8N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 17.2N 71.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 19.1N 71.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 23/1800Z 21.0N 70.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 24/1800Z 23.9N 67.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 25.4N 65.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 202053
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

...TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORMS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA..
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITI AND
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 67.1W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF ISLA SAONA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for the entire south coast of the from the Haiti border
eastward to Isla Saona.

The government of Haiti has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the south coast of Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic Border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border.
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Isla Saona.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Dominican Republic should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 67.1 West. Franklin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
west-northwestward track is expected to continue for the next day or
so followed by a sharp turn to the north. On the forecast track,
Franklin should approach the coast of Hispaniola on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds measured by NOAA reconnaissance aircraft
are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure measured by NOAA reconnaissance
aircraft is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning late Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches, across Puerto Rico
through the middle of the week. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches,
with isolated higher amounts up to 12 inches, will be possible
across portions of Hispaniola.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 202052
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082023
2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 67.1W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 67.1W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 66.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.0N 68.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.4N 70.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.8N 71.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.2N 71.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.1N 71.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.0N 70.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 23.9N 67.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 25.4N 65.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 67.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>