Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for GERT-23
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 041701 CCA
TCMAT2

REMNANTS OF GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
1500 UTC MON SEP 04 2023

CORRECTED ERROR IN FORECAST DISSIPATED LINE

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 51.0W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 300SE 180SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 51.0W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 50.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.5N 51.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 041436
TCDAT2

Remnants Of Gert Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2023

Visible satellite imagery indicates that Gert has dissipated. It is
also no longer producing organized deep convection. Therefore, this
is the final NHC advisory on Gert.

SAR data around 0930 UTC indicated that the remnants of Gert were
still producing winds near 45 kt, and that is the basis for the max
wind analysis. The remnants of Gert will continue to move quickly
around the circulation of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia today. Gert
will likely be fully absorbed by Idalia by tomorrow, so there does
not appear to be any potential for another regeneration of Gert.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 40.5N 51.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...REMNANTS OF GERT
12H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 041435
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Gert Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2023

...GERT DISSIPATES...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON GERT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.5N 51.0W
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the remnants of Gert were located near
latitude 40.5 North, longitude 51.0 West. The remnants are moving
quickly toward the north-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h). Gert has
dissipated. Its remnants will continue to rotate around the
circulation of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia today.

Maximum sustained winds associated with the remnants of Gert are 50
mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Higher winds associated with
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia are occuring in the area.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the remnants of Gert, mainly to the east and northeast.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 041434
TCMAT2

REMNANTS OF GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
1500 UTC MON SEP 04 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 51.0W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 300SE 180SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 51.0W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 51.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 42.8N 55.6W...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.5N 51.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 040842
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2023

A small area of disorganized deep convection has been persisting to
the southeast of the estimated center position. The intensity
estimate of 45 kt is based on continuity from earlier scatterometer
data and a Dvorak CI-number from TAFB. However, the low-level
circulation of Gert is becoming increasingly disrupted by the much
larger post-tropical cyclone Idalia. In fact, Gert may no longer
have a closed circulation, and it is likely that the system will
become absorbed by Idalia, and dissipate, later today.

Gert is moving northward at a faster forward speed of around 21 kt.
The cyclone should gradually turn northwestward with additional
acceleration while it rotates around Idalia, before dissipating.
The official track forecast is similar to the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 37.6N 51.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 40.6N 53.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 040840
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gert Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2023

...GERT LIKELY TO BE ABSORBED BY POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IDALIA LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.6N 51.0W
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gert was
located near latitude 37.6 North, longitude 51.0 West. Gert is
moving toward the north near 24 mph (39 km/h). A faster
north-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected today while
Gert moves around Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast before Gert dissipates later
today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 040839
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
0900 UTC MON SEP 04 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 51.0W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 210SE 180SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 51.0W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 50.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 40.6N 53.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.6N 51.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 040235
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2023

The low-level center of Gert is exposed in proxy-visible satellite
images tonight. Recent ASCAT-B wind retrievals indicate the surface
center is becoming elongated and less defined. There are still
tropical-storm-force winds occurring in the eastern semicircle, with
scatterometer winds as high as 40-42 kt. However, this is more a
product of Gert's translational speed than its paltry convective
structure. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 45
kt for this advisory.

Gert is moving quickly northward (010/19 kt) while being captured
within the broader cyclonic flow associated with Post-Tropical
Cyclone Idalia. Gert is forecast to accelerate northward to
north-northwestward while it continues rounding the northeastern
portion of Idalia's circulation. The global models show Gert
becoming absorbed on Monday, and the updated NHC forecast predicts
dissipation by 24 h. However, it is entirely possible that Gert
opens into a trough even sooner based on its current structure.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 35.4N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 38.5N 52.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 040234
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gert Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2023

...GERT LIKELY TO BE ABSORBED BY POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IDALIA
ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.4N 50.7W
ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gert was
located near latitude 35.4 North, longitude 50.7 West. Gert is
moving toward the north near 22 mph (35 km/h). A faster northward to
north-northwestward motion is expected on Monday while Gert moves
around Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia.

Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain
near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength
is forecast before Gert dissipates on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km),
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 040233
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
0300 UTC MON SEP 04 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 50.7W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 50.7W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 50.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 38.5N 52.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.4N 50.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 032035
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2023

All indications suggest that Gert is finally weakening. Gert's
center has been intermittently exposed since sunrise, displaced to
the northeast from a small area of persistent deep convection.
Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT have all
decreased from earlier values. The initial intensity of 45 kt is a
little above a consensus of the various satellite estimates, but I
would rather only make a small change until we get a surface wind
retrieval or another data set to help confirm the apparent weakening
trend.

Gert continues to accelerate toward the north-northeast. A turn
northward as Gert continues to speed up and wrap around the eastern
periphery of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia should begin soon. Most
models indicate that Gert will dissipate in the next 12 h or so, but
the NHC forecast carries it through 24 h since Gert has repeatedly
lasted longer than any model forecast indicated it should. The NHC
track and intensity forecasts are again very similar to previous
advisories, near the HCCA and simple consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 32.8N 51.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 36.1N 51.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 40.0N 54.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 032035
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gert Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2023

...GERT WEAKENS WHILE IT ACCELERATES AROUND POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
IDALIA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 51.3W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gert was
located near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 51.3 West. Gert is
moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). An even
faster northward motion is expected to begin tonight. After that,
Gert is forecast to turn toward the north-northwest as it continues
to accelerate around Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional weakening is possible tonight. Gert is
forecast to dissipate tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 032034
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
2100 UTC SUN SEP 03 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 51.3W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 51.3W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 51.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 36.1N 51.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 40.0N 54.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.8N 51.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 031443
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 03 2023

Gert may finally be on the verge of weakening. Its low-level center
has become exposed to the northeast of a shrinking area of
convection. That said, Dvorak-based satellite intensity estimates
have not started to decrease quite yet, so the intensity estimate
remains 50 kt for this advisory. A drifting buoy just south of
Gert's center reported a minimum pressure of 999 mb at 1200 UTC,
which also supports a minimum pressure similar to previous NHC
estimates. Partial ASCAT or SAR data may be available later today to
provide additional information on Gert's wind field.

Gert is accelerating north-northeastward. Additional acceleration is
expected as Gert begins its anticipated rotation around the much
larger circulation of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia, located to the
northwest of Gert. As Gert quickly rotates northward around the
eastern side of Idalia, all available dynamical guidance indicates
Gert will weaken slightly and open into a trough. The NHC forecast
maintains Gert as a tropical cyclone a little longer than the models
since most of them seem to be having trouble initializing the small
tropical storm appropriately. The NHC track, intensity, and wind
radii forecasts are all very similar to the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 31.2N 51.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 34.1N 51.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 38.8N 52.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 031441
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gert Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 03 2023

...GERT FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE
TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 51.9W
ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gert was
located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 51.9 West. Gert is
moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster
northward motion is expected today, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest as Gert begins to move around the circulation of
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight weakening is expected to begin today. Gert is forecast to
dissipate tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 031441
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
1500 UTC SUN SEP 03 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 51.9W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 51.9W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 52.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 34.1N 51.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 38.8N 52.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 51.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 030842
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 AM AST Sun Sep 03 2023

Gert appears to be maintaining its intensity for the time being, in
spite of the presence of strong northeasterly vertical wind shear.
The system has been producing a blob of deep convection to the
southwest of the estimated center and the low-level circulation is
still fairly well defined on GOES-16 proxy-vis imagery. The
current intensity is kept at 50 kt for this advisory in agreement
with an Advanced Dvorak Technique estimate from UW-CIMSS.

The tropical storm is accelerating north-northeastward at a faster
forward speed of around 10 kt. A north-northeastward to
northward motion with a continued increase in forward speed is
likely during the next day or so as Gert becomes entrained into the
eastern portion of the much larger circulation of Post-Tropical
Cyclone Idalia. Global model guidance shows the system becoming
absorbed by Idalia and dissipating in 24 hours or so. The official
forecast is similar to that from the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 29.9N 52.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 32.2N 52.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 36.3N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 030841
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gert Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 AM AST Sun Sep 03 2023

...GERT MAINTAINING INTENSITY FOR NOW BUT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
IN A DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 52.9W
ABOUT 720 MI...1165 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gert was
located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 52.9 West. Gert is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster
north-northeastward to northward motion is expected during the next
day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant changed in strength is expected until Gert
degenerates into a trough of low pressure by early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 030841
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
0900 UTC SUN SEP 03 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 52.9W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 105SE 75SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 52.9W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 53.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 32.2N 52.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 36.3N 52.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 52.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 030233
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2023

Gert remains a resilient compact tropical storm in strong wind
shear conditions and has even managed to strengthen a little more.
The low-level center is partially exposed on the northeast side of
the main area of deep convection. An ASCAT pass from around 00Z
showed peak winds in the 45-50 kt range in the southeast quadrant,
and based on that data, the initial wind speed is increased to 50
kt. This value is above the latest satellite intensity estimates.

The tropical storm is moving north-northeastward at 5 kt. This
motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected during
the next day or so as the system gets swept up by the much larger
circulation of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia. Most of the models
show Gert dissipating in a day or so, and the NHC forecast has now
moved up dissipation to 36 hours based on that guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 29.1N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 30.7N 52.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 33.6N 51.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 030233
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gert Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2023

...GERT STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 53.4W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gert was
located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 53.4 West. Gert is
moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster
north-northeastward motion is expected during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant change in strength is expected before Gert is
forecast to generate into a trough of low pressure early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 030232
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
0300 UTC SUN SEP 03 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 53.4W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 105SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 53.4W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 53.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 30.7N 52.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 33.6N 51.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 53.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 022043
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2023

Satellite images indicate that Gert has become less organized since
this morning. The low-level center is now exposed, with decreasing
deep convection. Intensity estimates support keeping Gert at 45 kt
for now, which remains near the UW-CIMSS SATCON value.

The storm is finally moving at a more substantial pace, north-
northeast at 8 kt, as it gets caught up in flow around Idalia to
the west-northwest. Gert should continue to accelerate north-
northeastward tonight and northward tomorrow around the eastern
side of Idalia's large circulation. The global models remain
consistent in showing the small circulation of Gert getting
torn apart by Idalia on Monday, reminiscent of the way that
Franklin took care of Jose yesterday. No substantial changes in
intensity are expected as any decrease in organization should be
roughly compensated by the large increase in forward. The new NHC
track and intensity forecast are basically unchanged from the
previous ones.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 28.4N 53.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 29.8N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 32.1N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 35.5N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 022040
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gert Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2023

...GERT FORECAST TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY AND BECOME ABSORBED BY IDALIA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 53.8W
ABOUT 710 MI...1140 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gert was
located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 53.8 West. Gert is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A faster
northward to north-northeast motion is expected to continue today
into Monday before dissipation later that day.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is expected before Gert is
forecast to open up into a trough of low pressure on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 022039
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
2100 UTC SAT SEP 02 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 53.8W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 90SE 45SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 53.8W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 53.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 29.8N 53.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 32.1N 52.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 35.5N 51.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 53.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 021614

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.09.2023

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA ANALYSED POSITION : 32.0N 63.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2023 0 32.0N 63.8W 999 46
0000UTC 03.09.2023 12 32.1N 62.8W 995 48
1200UTC 03.09.2023 24 33.5N 60.7W 994 48
0000UTC 04.09.2023 36 35.8N 59.5W 991 47
1200UTC 04.09.2023 48 38.4N 58.8W 992 44
0000UTC 05.09.2023 60 40.6N 58.7W 993 38
1200UTC 05.09.2023 72 41.3N 61.4W 993 36
0000UTC 06.09.2023 84 42.1N 62.6W 995 33
1200UTC 06.09.2023 96 42.0N 62.5W 998 28
0000UTC 07.09.2023 108 42.5N 64.2W 1001 25
1200UTC 07.09.2023 120 40.8N 63.3W 1004 26
0000UTC 08.09.2023 132 41.9N 62.5W 1007 24
1200UTC 08.09.2023 144 42.6N 62.8W 1009 23
0000UTC 09.09.2023 156 43.5N 62.6W 1012 27
1200UTC 09.09.2023 168 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KATIA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.6N 29.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2023 0 23.6N 29.5W 1008 35
0000UTC 03.09.2023 12 25.1N 31.2W 1009 33
1200UTC 03.09.2023 24 26.3N 32.5W 1010 31
0000UTC 04.09.2023 36 26.8N 33.7W 1011 27
1200UTC 04.09.2023 48 27.5N 34.9W 1012 27
0000UTC 05.09.2023 60 27.9N 35.4W 1012 24
1200UTC 05.09.2023 72 28.1N 35.6W 1011 24
0000UTC 06.09.2023 84 28.0N 35.4W 1011 24
1200UTC 06.09.2023 96 27.8N 34.5W 1010 23
0000UTC 07.09.2023 108 27.3N 33.7W 1011 21
1200UTC 07.09.2023 120 26.7N 33.3W 1012 23
0000UTC 08.09.2023 132 26.1N 33.9W 1013 23
1200UTC 08.09.2023 144 25.6N 35.2W 1015 24
0000UTC 09.09.2023 156 24.8N 36.3W 1015 22
1200UTC 09.09.2023 168 24.1N 37.5W 1015 20

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.5N 18.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2023 0 11.5N 18.5W 1013 20
0000UTC 03.09.2023 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM GERT ANALYSED POSITION : 27.8N 54.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2023 0 27.8N 54.1W 1006 30
0000UTC 03.09.2023 12 28.8N 53.5W 1005 35
1200UTC 03.09.2023 24 30.8N 52.3W 1005 33
0000UTC 04.09.2023 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 37.2N 19.3E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2023 72 36.0N 19.3E 1003 28
0000UTC 06.09.2023 84 33.9N 17.6E 1003 29
1200UTC 06.09.2023 96 34.0N 18.5E 1004 36
0000UTC 07.09.2023 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 14.0N 16.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2023 72 14.0N 16.6W 1005 31
0000UTC 06.09.2023 84 15.0N 18.0W 1006 33
1200UTC 06.09.2023 96 17.1N 19.2W 1009 25
0000UTC 07.09.2023 108 18.5N 20.4W 1011 21
1200UTC 07.09.2023 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 33.1N 16.2E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2023 120 33.1N 16.2E 1005 39
0000UTC 08.09.2023 132 34.0N 16.4E 1005 31
1200UTC 08.09.2023 144 33.0N 15.8E 1006 32
0000UTC 09.09.2023 156 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.4N 122.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2023 144 13.5N 123.8W 1004 33
0000UTC 09.09.2023 156 14.2N 126.8W 1003 33
1200UTC 09.09.2023 168 14.9N 130.5W 1005 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021614

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 021614

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.09.2023

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA ANALYSED POSITION : 32.0N 63.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.09.2023 32.0N 63.8W MODERATE
00UTC 03.09.2023 32.1N 62.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2023 33.5N 60.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2023 35.8N 59.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2023 38.4N 58.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2023 40.6N 58.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2023 41.3N 61.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2023 42.1N 62.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2023 42.0N 62.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2023 42.5N 64.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2023 40.8N 63.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2023 41.9N 62.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2023 42.6N 62.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2023 43.5N 62.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KATIA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.6N 29.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.09.2023 23.6N 29.5W WEAK
00UTC 03.09.2023 25.1N 31.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2023 26.3N 32.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2023 26.8N 33.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2023 27.5N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2023 27.9N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2023 28.1N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2023 28.0N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2023 27.8N 34.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2023 27.3N 33.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2023 26.7N 33.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2023 26.1N 33.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2023 25.6N 35.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2023 24.8N 36.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2023 24.1N 37.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.5N 18.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.09.2023 11.5N 18.5W WEAK
00UTC 03.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM GERT ANALYSED POSITION : 27.8N 54.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.09.2023 27.8N 54.1W WEAK
00UTC 03.09.2023 28.8N 53.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2023 30.8N 52.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 37.2N 19.3E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.09.2023 36.0N 19.3E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.09.2023 33.9N 17.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2023 34.0N 18.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 14.0N 16.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.09.2023 14.0N 16.6W WEAK
00UTC 06.09.2023 15.0N 18.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2023 17.1N 19.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2023 18.5N 20.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 33.1N 16.2E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2023 33.1N 16.2E WEAK
00UTC 08.09.2023 34.0N 16.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2023 33.0N 15.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.4N 122.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.09.2023 13.5N 123.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2023 14.2N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2023 14.9N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021614

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 021450
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2023

Gert is one tough little cyclone. Satellite images indicate that
deep convection continues near the center of the storm, despite
northerly shear, and microwave data from this morning shows healthy
banding structure. A scatterometer pass from 1259 UTC shows peak
winds of just over 40 kt, which supports at least 45 kt due to the
small size of Gert. The initial wind speed is raised to 45 kt,
which also matches the latest TAFB Dvorak value and the UW-CIMSS
SATCON estimate.

The storm is moving a bit faster to the north-northeast this
morning, roughly 3 kt, as it begins to feel the steering from
Idalia to the west-northwest. Gert should accelerate north-
northeastward later today and turn northward tomorrow around the
eastern side of Idalia's large circulation. All of the global
models open Gert up into a trough of low pressure by 48 h due to
rapidly increasing forward motion around Idalia, and the official
forecast follows suit. Little change in strength is expected with
Gert before it dissipates, although this system has been more
resilient to shear than most small tropical cyclones. No
significant changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast,
with a small upward adjustment to the intensity forecast based on
the initial value.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 27.8N 54.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 28.5N 53.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 30.1N 52.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 32.6N 51.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 021449
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gert Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2023

...GERT STRENGTHENS A BIT MORE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 54.1W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gert was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 54.1 West. Gert is
moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster
northward to north-northeast motion is expected to begin today and
continue into Monday.

Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little
change in strength is expected before Gert is forecast to open up
into a trough of low pressure on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 021448
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
1500 UTC SAT SEP 02 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 54.1W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 60SE 45SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 54.1W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 54.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 28.5N 53.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 30.1N 52.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 32.6N 51.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 10SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 54.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 020838
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2023

This morning's conventional satellite imagery and a recent AMSR2
microwave overpass indicate some improvement in the cloud pattern
overnight, although Gert's surface center remains near the
northern edge of the convective canopy where the colder cloud top
temperatures are evident. The subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates have increased a bit during the past 6 hours,
and the initial intensity is bumped up to 40 kt for this advisory.

Gert's intensity shouldn't change much during the next few days
while the cyclone continues moving in a harsh northerly wind shear
environment. Gert is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone
during the next couple of days as indicated in the global
models fields and their simulated infrared imagery forecasts.
Afterwards, Gert is expected to become absorbed by Post-Tropical
Idalia. The official intensity forecast follows the IVCN intensity
consensus aid through the period and indicates dissipation in 60
hours.

Gert should commence a northward track later today while the
southerly peripheral steering flow of larger Idalia captures the
cyclone and a subtropical ridge builds westward over the central
tropical Atlantic. There is quite a bit of along-track spread of
the models, however, so the best solution for the NHC forecast
track is to side with the consensus models, HCCA and TVCA through
dissipation early this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 27.7N 54.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 28.0N 53.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 29.2N 53.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 30.8N 52.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 33.4N 51.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 020838
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gert Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2023

...RESILIENT GERT STRONGER BUT NOT MOVING MUCH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 54.3W
ABOUT 705 MI...1130 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gert was
located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 54.3 West. Gert has
moved little during the past several hours. A northward motion
is expected to commence today and continue into Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before
Gert becomes absorbed by larger Post-tropical Idalia on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 020243
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

Gert remains relatively stationary to the southeast of Idalia. The
tropical storm is quite compact and deep convection has been
persisting, mostly to the south of the center. The Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB are steady at 2.5/35 kt. but the
other satellite estimates from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin
are a little higher. Blending all of the satellite estimates
supports increasing the intensity to 40 kt.

Gert has barely moved during the past 12 hours as it is caught in
weak steering currents between Idalia and a mid- to upper-level low
over the central Atlantic. As Idalia moves closer to Gert, the
storm is expected to turn northward on Saturday, and that motion
should continue until it dissipates by early Monday.

The storm has been resilient in an environment of strong northerly
shear. Although the shear is expected to remain high, it seems
likely that Gert will maintain its strength or weaken only slightly
until it becomes absorbed by Idalia in a couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 28.2N 54.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 28.3N 54.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 29.1N 53.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 30.3N 53.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 32.0N 52.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 020242
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
0300 UTC SAT SEP 02 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 54.9W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 54.9W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 55.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.3N 54.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 29.1N 53.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 30.3N 53.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 32.0N 52.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 54.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 020242
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gert Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

...GERT A LITTLE STRONGER WHILE REMAINING STATIONARY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 54.9W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gert was
located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 54.9 West. Gert is
stationary. A northward motion is expected to begin on Saturday
and continue into Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast before Gert becomes absorbed
by Idalia by early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 012035
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

Gert appears to have strengthened and has become a tropical storm
once again. Satellite intensity estimates range from 30 kt (1800 UTC
SAB Dvorak Current Intensity) to 46 kt (1701 UTC UW-CIMSS SATCON),
so the intensity has been raised to 35 kt in this advisory. AMSR
microwave imagery from a few hours ago revealed Gert has a tight
well-defined low-level inner-core, and it's possible the 35-kt
estimate is conservative.

The AMSR pass was also the first clear indication that Gert is
centered a little farther south than previously estimated. It's
possible that Gert's deep convection, which is limited to the
southeast quadrant, is pulling the center slowly in that direction
in the absence of other strong steering currents right now. In a
couple days, Gert should move a little quicker toward the northeast,
steered by a combination of Idalia to its northwest and a low- to
mid-level ridge over the eastern and central Atlantic. The NHC track
forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus aids TVCN and
HCCA, but is a little slower than the previous advisory.

Although continued shear should prevent Gert from strengthening
much, additional slight intensification is possible today or
tomorrow. Most models show the cyclone becoming post-tropical in 48
to 60 hours, and absorbed into the much larger circulation of Idalia
soon after. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted slightly
higher but is still very similar to the previous advisory. One thing
to note, the model trackers used to help NHC make track and
intensity forecasts appear to be following Idalia at the end of the
forecast instead of Gert in many cases. Users should be aware that
the tracks and intensities in the NCEP tracker or ATCF files may not
be representative of the model depiction of Gert beyond 60-72 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 27.8N 54.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 27.7N 53.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 28.4N 53.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 29.0N 52.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 30.6N 51.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 33.0N 51.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 012035
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gert Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

...FOR THE SECOND MONTH IN A ROW GERT BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 54.4W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gert was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 54.4 West. Gert is
moving toward the east-southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow
generally eastward motion is expected tonight. A slightly faster
northeastward motion is expected to begin by Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some slight additional intensification is possible
tonight or tomorrow. Weakening is likely by Sunday, and Gert is
expected to dissipate by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 012034
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
2100 UTC FRI SEP 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 54.4W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 54.4W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 54.6W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.7N 53.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 28.4N 53.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 29.0N 52.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 30.6N 51.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 33.0N 51.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 54.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 011453
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Gert Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

Gert's structure hasn't changed much since it regenerated, and it
remains strongly sheared from the north. ASCAT is not expected to
sample Gert this morning, so the 30-kt intensity is based entirely
on a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The tropical depression appears to have continued its eastward
track this morning. For the next day or so, a continued eastward
track is likely. After that, the uncertainty is quite large. Over
the weekend, Gert will likely begin to gain latitude as its steering
is influenced by the much larger Idalia to its northwest, and a
ridge to its east. However, the models have pretty large differences
in how fast Gert may move once it begins to turn. Regardless of its
exact track, by day 4, Gert should either become a poorly defined
post-tropical cyclone or be absorbed into the circulation of Idalia.
The NHC forecast is slower and farther south than the previous
advisory to remain near the multi-model consensus.

The shear currently affecting Gert will likely remain in place for
the next few days, which covers about the entirety that Gert is
expected to last as a tropical cyclone. Nonetheless, Gert is
already very near the threshold to become a tropical storm again,
and it would not take much increase in convection or organization
for that to happen. Later in the forecast period, Gert is forecast
to weaken and dissipate. Though there is a chance it could become
post-tropical without being absorbed into Idalia, if that happens
its low-level center will likely become poorly defined in the
process, still resulting in dissipation for the purposes of this
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 28.7N 54.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 28.8N 53.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 28.9N 52.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 29.7N 52.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 30.5N 51.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 32.7N 51.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1200Z 35.4N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 011448
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Gert Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

Gert's structure hasn't changed much since it regenerated, and it
remains strongly sheared from the north. ASCAT is not expected to
sample Gert this morning, so the 30-kt intensity is based entirely
on a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The tropical storm appears to have continued its eastward track this
morning. For the next day or so, a continued eastward track is
likely. After that, the uncertainty is quite large. Over the
weekend, Gert will likely begin to gain latitude as its steering is
influenced by the much larger Idalia to its northwest, and a ridge
to its east. However, the models have pretty large differences in
how fast Gert may move once it begins to turn. Regardless of its
exact track, by day 4, Gert should either become a poorly defined
post-tropical cyclone or be absorbed into the circulation of Idalia.
The NHC forecast is slower and farther south than the previous
advisory to remain near the multi-model consensus.

The shear currently affecting Gert will likely remain in place for
the next few days, which covers about the entirety that Gert is
expected to last as a tropical cyclone. Nonetheless, Gert is
already very near the threshold to become a tropical storm again,
and it would not take much increase in convection or organization
for that to happen. Later in the forecast period, Gert is forecast
to weaken and dissipate. Though there is a chance it could become
post-tropical without being absorbed into Idalia, if that happens
its low-level center will likely become poorly defined in the
process, still resulting in dissipation for the purposes of this
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 28.7N 54.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 28.8N 53.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 28.9N 52.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 29.7N 52.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 30.5N 51.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 32.7N 51.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1200Z 35.4N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 011446
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Gert Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

...GERT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN TODAY AFTER 11 DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 54.6W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gert
was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 54.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h). This
motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the northeast is
expected over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gert could become a tropical storm later today. The system is
forecast to become post-tropical or dissipate by the end of the
weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 011446
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
1500 UTC FRI SEP 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 54.6W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 54.6W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 54.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 28.8N 53.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.9N 52.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 29.7N 52.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 30.5N 51.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 32.7N 51.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 35.4N 51.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 54.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 010902
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Gert Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

After more than a week of meandering over the central Atlantic, the
circulation of former Tropical Storm Gert has again become well
defined, and the system has acquired enough persistent and
organized deep convection for it to be classified as a tropical
depression once again. A recent AMSR2 microwave overpass shows that
the small circulation is located near the northeastern portion of
the persistent convective mass. The initial intensity is set at 30
kt and is based on the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB
and SAB.

Gert is located within an area of moderate to strong shear. The
shear is forecast to increase even more in the next 18-24 hours
which should limit strengthening, however Gert could re-gain
tropical storm status today. Over the weekend, gradual weakening
is expected when the upper-level environment becomes more hostile.
The global models are in relatively good agreement that Gert will
be absorbed by the larger circulation of Idalia when it is over the
central Atlantic in 3 to 4 days.

Gert is moving eastward at about 7 kt. The eastward motion should
continue today, but by Saturday, Gert is forecast to turn
northeastward as it is steered around the low- to mid-level flow
around the eastern side of the larger circulation of Idalia. By 48
hours Gert should turn northward around the eastern flank of Idalia
and that motion should continue until dissipation occurs. The
track guidance is in good agreement on the overall scenario but
there are significant differences in Gert's forward speed. The NHC
track is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 28.7N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 28.7N 54.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 29.1N 53.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 29.7N 52.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 30.7N 52.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 32.3N 51.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 34.7N 51.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 010900
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Gert Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023

...GERT REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 55.0W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gert was
located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 55.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a
slower eastward motion is expected today. A turn toward the
northeast is expected on Saturday and that motion should continue
through late in the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible today, and Gert could become
a tropical storm once again. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin
over the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 010900
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
0900 UTC FRI SEP 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 55.0W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 55.0W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 55.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.7N 54.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 29.1N 53.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 29.7N 52.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.7N 52.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 32.3N 51.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 34.7N 51.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 55.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 221434
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gert Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 22 2023

Gert has finally succumbed to the very unfavorable environmental
conditions it has been embedded in for the last several days. First
light visible satellite imagery shows the low-level circulation has
become very diffuse, and is likely very close to opening up into a
trough. In fact, the surface observations in the Lesser Antilles to
the west of Gert have been rising this morning despite the
circulation moving closer to them. In addition, all of the deep
convective activity east of the center has largely dissipated.
Based on these available data, Gert no longer meets the definition
of a tropical cyclone, and this will be the final advisory.

The initial motion is a slow west-northwest drift at about 4 kt. The
remnant low is forecast to turn northward and drift very slowly
until it completely dissipates in about 2-3 days. The guidance is
in good agreement with this scenario. Future information on Gert
can also be found in High Seas forecast issued by the National
Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 17.4N 59.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 23/0000Z 18.3N 60.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/1200Z 19.0N 60.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0000Z 19.2N 59.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1200Z 18.9N 59.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/R. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 221433
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gert Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 22 2023

...GERT BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 59.7W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Gert
was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 59.7 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph
(7 km/h). The post-tropical remnants of Gert should drift slowly
until it dissipates.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gert should continue to gradually weaken until the circulation
opens up into a trough in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Gert. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin/R. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 221433
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
1500 UTC TUE AUG 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 59.7W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 59.7W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 59.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.3N 60.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.2N 59.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.9N 59.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 59.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/R. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 220849
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Gert Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 AM AST Tue Aug 22 2023

Gert is a very disorganized system and may no longer have a closed
circulation. Consequently, we'll await further justification
from the conventional visible imagery and this morning's
scatterometer passes. The current intensity estimate remains at 25
kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from SAB.

The statistical-dynamical SHIPS intensity guidance suggests
that strong shear should weaken the system further while it moves
west-northwestward, and Gert is forecast to open up into a trough of
low-pressure, and this is explicitly shown in the NHC forecast.
Once again, no significant changes were made to the NHC track or
intensity forecasts, which is also in agreement with the latest
multi-model consensus and global model forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 17.2N 58.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 17.6N 59.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 220848
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
0900 UTC TUE AUG 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 58.8W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 58.8W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 58.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.6N 59.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 58.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 220848
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Gert Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 AM AST Tue Aug 22 2023

...GERT BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...COULD DISSIPATE OR BECOME POST TROPICAL AT ANY TIME...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 58.8W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gert was
located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 58.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13
km/h). Gert or its remnants should move west-northwestward to
northwestward today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gert could dissipate at any time.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 220237
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Gert Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

Gert appears to be on its last legs tonight. While some convection
remains near the small cyclone, the surface circulation is becoming
less well defined, and the system could be opening up into a
trough. I don't have enough confidence to issue the last advisory
based on the satellite data alone, so for continuity Gert will
remain a 25-kt tropical depression.

Strong shear should weaken the system while it moves west-
northwestward, and Gert is forecast to open up into a trough of low
pressure on Tuesday. No signficant changes were made to the NHC
track or intensity forecasts, which was also consistent with the
latest consensus aids and global model predictions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 17.1N 58.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 17.5N 59.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 220237
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Gert Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

...GERT HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...COULD DISSIPATE OR BECOME POST TROPICAL AT ANY TIME...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 58.4W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gert
was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 58.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).
Gert or its remnants should turn northwestward overnight or
tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gert could dissipate at any time.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 220236
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
0300 UTC TUE AUG 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 58.4W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 58.4W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 58.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.5N 59.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 58.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 212032
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Gert Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 PM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

Gert continues to be sustained by a very small but persistent area
of convection east of its surface wind center. ASCAT data that came
in 5 minutes after the release of the previous advisory showed peak
winds of just above 25 kt well to the north of Gert's center. South
of Gert is mostly light and variable winds. Assuming Gert has
weakened further a little since then, its intensity has been lowered
to 25 kt.

All models continue to suggest that Gert will struggle in the face
of strong upper-level winds and a very dry surrounding environment.
The small tropical depression will likely either lose organized deep
convection and become a remnant low or dissipate at almost any time.
There is a chance that Gert could persist as a remnant low beyond
the 24 h shown in the NHC forecast, but it is unlikely that Gert
will have sufficient organized deep convection to be classified as a
tropical cyclone in that case. Gert is moving west-northwestward,
but the depression or its remnants should turn more northwestward
by tomorrow. No noteworthy changes were made to the NHC track or
intensity forecasts with this advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 17.1N 57.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 17.6N 58.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/1800Z 18.5N 59.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 212032
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Gert Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 PM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

...GERT IS WEAKER...
...COULD DISSIPATE OR BECOME POST TROPICAL AT ANY TIME...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 57.5W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gert was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 57.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11
km/h). Gert or its remnants should turn northwestward overnight or
tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gert could dissipate at any time.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 212031
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
2100 UTC MON AUG 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 57.5W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 57.5W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 57.2W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.6N 58.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.5N 59.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 57.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 211451
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

Gert barely qualifies a tropical cyclone. Visible satellite imagery
indicates it still has a well-enough defined circulation sustained
by a small area of deep convection that is displaced east of Gert's
surface center. That said, during the few hours since sunrise, the
tropical storm's circulation appears to have become stretched as
convection has waned. The initial intensity estimate is 35 kt based
on recent satellite estimates and ASCAT data last night, but new
ASCAT data is expected very soon that will provide better
information about the current maximum winds.

Strong upper-level winds associated with an upper-level low to the
north of Gert and outflow from the more robust Franklin to its west
ought to prevent Gert's convection from getting better organized.
Most dynamical models continue to indicate that Gert will open into
a trough within the next 12-36 h. While the tiny tropical cyclone
has been quite persistent thus far, its hard to envision Gert
lasting much longer in its current environment. Although the NHC
forecast maintains Gert for a little longer, it could realistically
dissipate at any time.

The initial motion of the tropical cyclone remains westward at a
slightly slower forward pace than overnight. Gert (or its remnants)
will likely turn west-northwestward or northwestward by tonight
until dissipation occurs. The NHC track forecast is very close to
the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 16.9N 57.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 17.2N 58.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/1200Z 17.8N 59.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/0000Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 211450
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gert Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

...GERT IS STILL THERE BUT IT COULD DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 57.0W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gert was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 57.0 West. Gert is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue today. Gert or its remnants are forecast to
turn northwestward tonight and tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast for the next day or so. Gert could
become a remnant low or dissipate at any time.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 211450
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
1500 UTC MON AUG 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 57.0W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 57.0W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 56.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.2N 58.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.8N 59.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 57.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 210847
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

After a brief intensification period overnight, Gert is quickly
unraveling this morning. The surface circulation is becoming
ill-defined while the associated sheared mass of convection is
shrinking. Although the cloud pattern has certainly become less
organized during the past few hours, the initial intensity is
generously held at 35 kt for this advisory and is supported by the
Dvorak satellite intensity estimates. Despite a rather diffluent
upper-wind pattern, strong, persistent westerly shear and a
statically stable and dry mid-tropospheric surrounding air mass
should force Gert's surface center to separate farther from the
diminishing convective mass later today and degenerate to a remnant
low by this evening. The morning's global model simulated infrared
imagery also shows the cyclone opening to a trough of low pressure
in less than 36 hours, and the NHC official forecast reflects this
prediction.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/8 kt. A
gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected by tonight, and
this general motion should continue until dissipation occurs on
Tuesday. The official forecast has been adjusted slightly to the
right of the previous one and is based on the simple and NOAA HFIP
Corrected Consensus forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 16.7N 56.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 17.0N 57.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/0600Z 17.6N 59.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 210846
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gert Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM GERT QUICKLY UNRAVELING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 56.4W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gert was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 56.4 West. Gert is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a gradual turn
toward the west-northwest is forecast by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gert is expected to become a remnant low later today and dissipate
on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 210845
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
0900 UTC MON AUG 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 56.4W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 56.4W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 56.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.0N 57.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.6N 59.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 56.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 210416
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Gert Special Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1200 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

Recent satellite wind-derived data indicated that winds in the
northeast quadrant were a little over 35 kt. Conventional enhanced
infrared imagery showed cooling cloud tops of -85 Celsius in the
same region of the cyclone. Accordingly, the depression is
upgraded to a tropical storm on this Special Advisory.

No changes to the forecast track and intensity philosophy are
required. Since the environment is still expected to be
hostile with very strong westerly shear during the next day or so,
Gert should degenerate into a remnant low later today, and
dissipate by Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0400Z 16.7N 55.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 16.8N 57.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 210416
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gert Special Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1200 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM GERT...
...STILL EXPECTED TO SHORT-LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM AST...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 55.9W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM AST (0400 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gert was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 55.9 West. Gert is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion is expected until the system dissipates in about 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gert is expected to become a remnant low later today and dissipate
on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 210415
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM GERT SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
0400 UTC MON AUG 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 55.9W AT 21/0400Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 55.9W AT 21/0400Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 55.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.8N 57.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 55.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 210244
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

Proxy-vis satellite imagery indicates that the center of the
depression remains exposed with convection displaced to the east.
The system is also starting to be impacted by the outer rainbands
of Tropical Storm Franklin. Based on a blend of objective and
subjective satellite estimates, the initial intensity remains at
30 kt for this system.

The depression remains in a strong deep-layer sheared environment,
while also starting to be impacted by outer bands of Franklin.
Models and simulated satellite data show the system becoming a
remnant low overnight and dissipated in 24 hours.

The depression is moving west-northwestward, and this
general motion is expected to continue until dissipation occurs.
The track forecast is very similar to the previous forecast, and
lies near the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 16.7N 55.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 16.8N 57.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 210243
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 55.7W
ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 55.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h)
and this motion is expected until the system dissipates in about 24
hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to become a remnant low tonight and
dissipate in about 24 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 210243
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
0300 UTC MON AUG 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 55.7W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 55.7W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 55.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.8N 57.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 55.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 202032
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

Visible satellite imagery indicates that the deep convection
north and east of the depression has dissipated this afternoon. Once
again, the center of circulation is completely exposed and is not as
well-defined as earlier today. Based on a blend of objective and
subjective satellite estimates, the initial intensity estimate for
this advisory is held at 30 kt.

Not much has changed with the forecast reasoning. Strong deep-layer
westerly shear and unfavorable mid-level thermodynamics are
expected to preclude further development of the depression. Global
models and ensembles are in agreement that intensification
is unlikely, and thus the official forecast has the depression as a
remnant low in 12 h and dissipated in 24 h.

The depression is now moving slightly north of due west, and this
general motion is expected to continue until dissipation occurs.
The official track forecast is a blend of consensus guidance and is
similar to the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 16.6N 54.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 16.7N 56.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 202031
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

...DEPRESSION STEADY DESPITE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 54.7W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 54.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue over the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected, and the depression is forecast to
become a remnant low and dissipate in about 24 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 202031
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 54.7W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 54.7W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 54.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.7N 56.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 54.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 201611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 20.08.2023

TROPICAL STORM EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 38.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2023 0 19.2N 38.4W 1001 45
0000UTC 21.08.2023 12 19.8N 40.3W 1003 43
1200UTC 21.08.2023 24 20.5N 42.2W 1005 30
0000UTC 22.08.2023 36 21.4N 44.1W 1007 26
1200UTC 22.08.2023 48 22.3N 46.1W 1007 24
0000UTC 23.08.2023 60 23.5N 48.1W 1007 25
1200UTC 23.08.2023 72 24.8N 49.2W 1007 26
0000UTC 24.08.2023 84 26.7N 50.0W 1007 28
1200UTC 24.08.2023 96 29.3N 50.8W 1005 34
0000UTC 25.08.2023 108 31.4N 50.9W 1007 33
1200UTC 25.08.2023 120 33.8N 51.4W 1007 30
0000UTC 26.08.2023 132 36.7N 50.2W 1009 28
1200UTC 26.08.2023 144 39.5N 47.5W 1011 27
0000UTC 27.08.2023 156 40.3N 43.6W 1013 25
1200UTC 27.08.2023 168 40.3N 39.0W 1015 26

TROPICAL STORM HILARY ANALYSED POSITION : 28.2N 115.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2023 0 28.2N 115.1W 985 50
0000UTC 21.08.2023 12 34.1N 118.2W 997 40
1200UTC 21.08.2023 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 64.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL902023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2023 0 13.9N 64.6W 1006 27
0000UTC 21.08.2023 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 53.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2023 0 16.6N 53.4W 1008 29
0000UTC 21.08.2023 12 16.9N 55.1W 1008 26
1200UTC 21.08.2023 24 17.3N 57.0W 1008 26
0000UTC 22.08.2023 36 17.2N 58.1W 1008 25
1200UTC 22.08.2023 48 18.1N 59.6W 1008 26
0000UTC 23.08.2023 60 18.9N 60.3W 1008 22
1200UTC 23.08.2023 72 19.4N 60.9W 1009 22
0000UTC 24.08.2023 84 19.4N 60.7W 1009 19
1200UTC 24.08.2023 96 18.6N 60.0W 1009 20
0000UTC 25.08.2023 108 17.5N 59.6W 1009 18
1200UTC 25.08.2023 120 16.9N 59.1W 1009 22
0000UTC 26.08.2023 132 16.9N 59.1W 1008 22
1200UTC 26.08.2023 144 17.8N 59.7W 1008 25
0000UTC 27.08.2023 156 18.9N 60.5W 1008 25
1200UTC 27.08.2023 168 20.6N 61.6W 1009 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 14.0N 17.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2023 84 14.5N 18.8W 1005 28
1200UTC 24.08.2023 96 15.3N 21.5W 1003 36
0000UTC 25.08.2023 108 16.1N 24.3W 1005 33
1200UTC 25.08.2023 120 16.6N 27.0W 1004 36
0000UTC 26.08.2023 132 17.3N 29.0W 1006 33
1200UTC 26.08.2023 144 17.5N 31.2W 1007 32
0000UTC 27.08.2023 156 17.8N 33.8W 1008 32
1200UTC 27.08.2023 168 18.3N 36.4W 1009 35

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 22.0N 72.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.08.2023 120 22.0N 72.7W 1006 22
0000UTC 26.08.2023 132 22.8N 71.7W 1005 27
1200UTC 26.08.2023 144 22.9N 70.7W 1004 30
0000UTC 27.08.2023 156 23.9N 70.3W 1002 39
1200UTC 27.08.2023 168 25.0N 70.5W 1003 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 13.6N 127.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.08.2023 156 13.9N 128.9W 1004 26
1200UTC 27.08.2023 168 15.0N 131.6W 1005 28

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 11.3N 16.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.08.2023 156 11.3N 16.5W 1001 42
1200UTC 27.08.2023 168 11.1N 18.9W 999 41


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 201611

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 201611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.08.2023

TROPICAL STORM EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 38.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.08.2023 19.2N 38.4W WEAK
00UTC 21.08.2023 19.8N 40.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2023 20.5N 42.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2023 21.4N 44.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2023 22.3N 46.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2023 23.5N 48.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2023 24.8N 49.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2023 26.7N 50.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2023 29.3N 50.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2023 31.4N 50.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2023 33.8N 51.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2023 36.7N 50.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2023 39.5N 47.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2023 40.3N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2023 40.3N 39.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM HILARY ANALYSED POSITION : 28.2N 115.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.08.2023 28.2N 115.1W MODERATE
00UTC 21.08.2023 34.1N 118.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 64.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL902023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.08.2023 13.9N 64.6W WEAK
00UTC 21.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 53.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.08.2023 16.6N 53.4W WEAK
00UTC 21.08.2023 16.9N 55.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2023 17.3N 57.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2023 17.2N 58.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2023 18.1N 59.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2023 18.9N 60.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2023 19.4N 60.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2023 19.4N 60.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2023 18.6N 60.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2023 17.5N 59.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2023 16.9N 59.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2023 16.9N 59.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2023 17.8N 59.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2023 18.9N 60.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2023 20.6N 61.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 14.0N 17.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.08.2023 14.5N 18.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2023 15.3N 21.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2023 16.1N 24.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2023 16.6N 27.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2023 17.3N 29.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2023 17.5N 31.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2023 17.8N 33.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2023 18.3N 36.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 22.0N 72.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.08.2023 22.0N 72.7W WEAK
00UTC 26.08.2023 22.8N 71.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2023 22.9N 70.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2023 23.9N 70.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2023 25.0N 70.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 13.6N 127.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.08.2023 13.9N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2023 15.0N 131.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 11.3N 16.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.08.2023 11.3N 16.5W WEAK
12UTC 27.08.2023 11.1N 18.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 201611

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 201446
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

Visible satellite imagery this morning continues to show a
partially exposed center, with persistent deep convection displaced
slightly to the north and east of the depression. Based on a blend
of objective and subjective satellite estimates, the initial
intensity estimate for this advisory remains 30 kt.

Although deep convection has persisted this morning, deep-layer
westerly shear is expected to increase to near 40 kt today and
remain steady during the next 24 hours. Further, dry mid-level air
to the north of the system will likely inhibit well-organized and
sustained deep convection. Global models and ensemble systems are in
agreement that intensification of the depression is unlikely, and
thus the official forecast has the depression as a remnant low in
24 h and dissipated in 36 h.

The depression has continued moving slightly south of due west this
morning, and it is expected to turn slightly north of due west
today, with this general motion expected to continue until
dissipation occurs. Given the continued motion toward the
west-southwest, the official track forecast lies slightly to the
south of the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 16.8N 53.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 16.9N 55.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 17.2N 57.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 201445
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
1500 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 53.7W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 53.7W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 53.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.9N 55.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.2N 57.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 53.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 201445
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

...DEPRESSION REMAINS STEADY IN STRONG SHEAR...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 53.7W
ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 53.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected, and the depression is forecast to
become a remnant low and dissipate on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 200850
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 AM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

The center of the depression remains fully exposed in satellite
imagery this morning, with the associated convection displaced well
to the east by strong westerly shear. Given the lack of improvement
in the cyclone's satellite presentation, and a blend of the latest
objective and subjective satellite estimates, the initial intensity
remains 30 kt for this advisory.

The strong deep-layer westerly shear plaguing the depression is
forecast to increase to over 40 kt later today. This, combined with
relatively dry mid-level air in the surrounding environment, will
make it difficult for the cyclone to sustain organized convection
going forward. Therefore, the official forecast now calls for the
system to degenerate to a remnant low in 24 h, in agreement with the
latest GFS and ECMWF model-simulated satellite imagery. The global
models suggest the weak low is likely to open into a trough soon
thereafter, and so this update shows dissipation in 36 h.

The depression has moved a bit south of due west over the past
several hours, but its long-term motion remains westward at 13 kt.
This general motion is expected to continue until dissipation
occurs, as the system moves within low-level easterly flow to the
south of a subtropical ridge. Given the recent motion toward the
west-southwest, this updated track forecast lies to the south of the
previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 16.8N 52.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 17.0N 54.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 17.3N 56.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 200850
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 AM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH STRONG SHEAR...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 52.9W
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 52.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual weakening is expected, and the depression is forecast
to become a remnant low early Monday and dissipate soon thereafter.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 200849
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
0900 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 52.9W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 52.9W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 52.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.0N 54.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.3N 56.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 52.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 200247
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 19 2023

The latest CIMSS proxy-vis satellite imagery shows that the
low-level center of Tropical Depression Six has become completely
exposed, with all the convection displace to the east. Infrared
imagery also shows that the cold cloud tops from earlier this
afternoon have warmed over the last few hours. A blend of
subjective and objective satellite estimates remain around 30 kt.
Therefore, the intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory.

The depression is currently in a hostile environment with strong
deep-layer vertical shear, and dry mid-level relative humidities.
These conditions are expected to persist, with the depression
expected to be fairly short-lived. Simulated satellite imagery shows
the potential for a few more convective bursts over the next day or
so. The official forecast calls for no further strengthening, and
for the system to become a post-tropical remnant low in 36 hours and
dissipate by 48 hours. However, some models suggest that it may
become devoid of convection a little earlier than currently
forecast. The intensity forecast remains near the model consensus.

The depression is moving westward at 12 kt, to the south of a
low-level ridge. The system is expected to continue westward, with a
slight decrease in forward speed over the next day or so. By Monday,
the system will round the edge of the ridge with a gradual turn to
the west-northwest. The track forecast is very close to the previous
NHC forecast and lies near the corrected model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 17.2N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 17.5N 53.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 17.8N 55.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 18.3N 57.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 200246
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
0300 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 51.5W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 51.5W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 50.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.5N 53.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.8N 55.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.3N 57.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 51.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 200246
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 19 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 51.5W
ABOUT 765 MI...1235 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 51.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This
motion is expected to continue, with a slight decrease in forward
speed over the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn to the
west-northwest by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so,
and the depression is forecast to become a remnant low by Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 192046
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 PM AST Sat Aug 19 2023

Visible imagery has shown a partially-exposed, well-defined
low-level circulation for the past several hours. Infrared imagery
has also shown deep convection persisting since around 0600 UTC east
of the center with cold cloud tops of less than -85 degrees C.
Therefore, the system now meets the necessary requirements to be
classified as a tropical cyclone. Subjective satellite estimates
from TAFB and SAB are 35 kt and 25 kt, respectively, and the initial
intensity is set to 30 kt based on that data.

Models indicate that the depression is currently in a relatively
hostile environment. There is strong deep-layer vertical shear and
the mid-level relative humidities are near 40 percent. These
conditions are not expected to change much and global models suggest
this will be a short-lived depression. Simulated satellite imagery
from the ECMWF shows a few bursts of deep convection that are
sheared away by 48 hours. The official forecast shows a steady-state
depression through 36 hours that degenerates to a remnant low in 48
hours, and dissipates by 60 hours. This prediction is near the
various consensus model guidance.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt. It is
currently being steered by a narrow low-level ridge to its north.
The system is expected to turn more westward and slow in forward
speed over the next day or so followed by a slight bend back to the
west-northwest on day 2. The NHC track forecast is near the simple
and corrected model consensus aids, and leans towards the more
southerly ECMWF track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 16.7N 50.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 17.0N 52.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 17.3N 54.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 17.6N 56.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 18.1N 58.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 192042
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062023
2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 50.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 50.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 49.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.0N 52.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.3N 54.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.6N 56.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.1N 58.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 50.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>