Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for KHANUN-23 in Japan from 27 Jul 2023 06:00 UTC to 10 Aug 2023 18:00 UTC

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 102100
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 64
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM 2306 KHANUN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 102100UTC 38.5N 126.4E
MOVEMENT NNW 7KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 27KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101800UTC 39N 127E
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA =

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 101500
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 62
NAME 2306 KHANUN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 101500UTC 38.0N 127.0E
MOVEMENT NW 12KT
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 37KT
FORECAST
03HR
POSITION 101800UTC 38.2N 126.6E WITHIN 5NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 35KT
06HR
POSITION 102100UTC 38.5N 126.1E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 33KT
09HR
POSITION 110000UTC 38.8N 125.8E WITHIN 20NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 33KT
12HR
POSITION 110300UTC 39.0N 125.4E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 101500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101500UTC 38.3N 128.1E GOOD
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 110300UTC 39.3N 126.0E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 111500UTC 40.4N 125.0E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.61 FOR TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KHANUN IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 38.0N, 128.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
VWS, DRY AIR AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 101500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230810131645
2023081012 06W KHANUN 058 02 340 10 SATL RADR SYNP 060
T000 374N 1277E 035 R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 387N 1262E 025
T024 392N 1252E 020
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 058
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 058
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 37.4N 127.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.4N 127.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 38.7N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 39.2N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 37.7N 127.3E.
10AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 34 NM
EAST OF YONGSAN AIN , HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101200Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080700 278N1311E 55
0623080700 278N1311E 55
0623080706 281N1312E 55
0623080706 281N1312E 55
0623080712 284N1311E 55
0623080712 284N1311E 55
0623080718 286N1310E 50
0623080718 286N1310E 50
0623080800 290N1309E 40
0623080806 294N1307E 45
0623080812 300N1304E 50
0623080812 300N1304E 50
0623080818 305N1298E 55
0623080818 305N1298E 55
0623080900 309N1293E 55
0623080900 309N1293E 55
0623080906 317N1289E 50
0623080906 317N1289E 50
0623080912 324N1288E 60
0623080912 324N1288E 60
0623080918 337N1288E 55
0623080918 337N1288E 55
0623081000 348N1287E 45
0623081006 364N1281E 40
0623081012 374N1277E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 058//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 058
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 37.4N 127.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.4N 127.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 38.7N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 39.2N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 37.7N 127.3E.
10AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 34 NM
EAST OF YONGSAN AIN , HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101200Z IS 988
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 38.0N 128.3E GOOD
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 110000UTC 38.6N 126.1E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 111200UTC 40.3N 125.1E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 101200
WARNING 101200.
WARNING VALID 111200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 990 HPA
AT 38.0N 128.3E KOREA MOVING NORTH 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 38.6N 126.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 40.3N 125.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 100900
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 60
NAME 2306 KHANUN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 100900UTC 37.1N 128.0E
MOVEMENT NNW 11KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 43KT
FORECAST
03HR
POSITION 101200UTC 37.6N 127.5E WITHIN 5NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 39KT
06HR
POSITION 101500UTC 38.0N 127.0E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 39KT
09HR
POSITION 101800UTC 38.2N 126.6E WITHIN 20NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 39KT
12HR
POSITION 102100UTC 38.5N 126.1E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 39KT
18HR
POSITION 110300UTC 39.1N 125.4E WITHIN 45NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
24HR
POSITION 110900UTC 39.6N 124.9E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 100900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100900UTC 37.5N 128.2E GOOD
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 102100UTC 38.5N 126.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 110900UTC 39.9N 124.8E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 100900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230810081501
2023081006 06W KHANUN 057 02 345 17 SATL RADR SYNP 050
T000 364N 1281E 040 R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 383N 1268E 030
T024 392N 1256E 025
T036 397N 1249E 020
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 057
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 057
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 36.4N 128.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.4N 128.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 38.3N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 39.2N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 39.7N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 36.9N 127.8E.
10AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 68 NM
SOUTHEAST OF OSAN AB , HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100600Z IS 986 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080700 278N1311E 55
0623080700 278N1311E 55
0623080706 281N1312E 55
0623080706 281N1312E 55
0623080712 284N1311E 55
0623080712 284N1311E 55
0623080718 286N1310E 50
0623080718 286N1310E 50
0623080800 290N1309E 40
0623080806 294N1307E 45
0623080812 300N1304E 50
0623080812 300N1304E 50
0623080818 305N1298E 55
0623080818 305N1298E 55
0623080900 309N1293E 55
0623080900 309N1293E 55
0623080906 317N1289E 50
0623080906 317N1289E 50
0623080912 324N1288E 60
0623080912 324N1288E 60
0623080918 337N1288E 55
0623080918 337N1288E 55
0623081000 348N1287E 45
0623081006 364N1281E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 057//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 057
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 36.4N 128.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.4N 128.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 38.3N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 39.2N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 39.7N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 36.9N 127.8E.
10AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 68 NM
SOUTHEAST OF OSAN AB , HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100600Z IS
986 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.60 FOR TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KHANUN IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 36.6N, 128.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 36.6N 128.1E FAIR
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 101800UTC 38.2N 126.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 110600UTC 39.6N 125.6E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 100600
WARNING 100600.
WARNING VALID 110600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 985 HPA
AT 36.6N 128.1E KOREA MOVING NORTH 17 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 38.2N 126.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 39.6N 125.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 100300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100300UTC 35.6N 128.7E FAIR
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 101500UTC 38.1N 126.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 110300UTC 39.3N 125.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 120000UTC 40.1N 124.6E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 100300
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 58
NAME 2306 KHANUN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 100300UTC 35.7N 128.6E
MOVEMENT N 21KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
FORECAST
03HR
POSITION 100600UTC 36.3N 128.3E WITHIN 5NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
06HR
POSITION 100900UTC 36.9N 127.9E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 47KT
09HR
POSITION 101200UTC 37.5N 127.3E WITHIN 20NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 47KT
12HR
POSITION 101500UTC 37.9N 126.9E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 39KT
15HR
POSITION 101800UTC 38.2N 126.6E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 39KT
18HR
POSITION 102100UTC 38.5N 126.1E WITHIN 45NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 37KT
21HR
POSITION 110000UTC 38.7N 125.7E WITHIN 50NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 35KT
24HR
POSITION 110300UTC 39.0N 125.4E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 35KT
30HR
POSITION 110900UTC 39.5N 124.9E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.59 FOR TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 34.8N, 128.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT06. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 100300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230810011417
2023081000 06W KHANUN 056 02 355 11 SATL 060
T000 348N 1287E 045 R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 374N 1274E 035 R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 386N 1260E 030
T036 394N 1251E 025
T048 406N 1246E 020
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 056
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 056
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 34.8N 128.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.8N 128.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 37.4N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 38.6N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 39.4N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 40.6N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 35.5N 128.4E.
10AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 19 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHINHAE, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 81000Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z,
101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080700 278N1311E 55
0623080700 278N1311E 55
0623080706 281N1312E 55
0623080706 281N1312E 55
0623080712 284N1311E 55
0623080712 284N1311E 55
0623080718 286N1310E 50
0623080718 286N1310E 50
0623080800 290N1309E 40
0623080806 294N1307E 45
0623080812 300N1304E 50
0623080812 300N1304E 50
0623080818 305N1298E 55
0623080818 305N1298E 55
0623080900 309N1293E 55
0623080900 309N1293E 55
0623080906 317N1289E 50
0623080906 317N1289E 50
0623080912 324N1288E 60
0623080912 324N1288E 60
0623080918 337N1288E 55
0623080918 337N1288E 55
0623081000 348N1287E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2306 KHANUN (2306) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 34.8N 128.7E FAIR
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 101200UTC 37.9N 127.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 110000UTC 38.8N 125.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 120000UTC 40.1N 124.6E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 100000
WARNING 100000.
WARNING VALID 110000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 980 HPA
AT 34.8N 128.7E SEA AROUND TUSHIMA MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 37.9N 127.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 38.8N 125.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 40.1N 124.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 092100
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 56
NAME 2306 KHANUN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 092100UTC 34.0N 128.5E
MOVEMENT N 12KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
03HR
POSITION 100000UTC 34.9N 128.4E WITHIN 5NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
06HR
POSITION 100300UTC 35.6N 128.1E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
09HR
POSITION 100600UTC 36.2N 127.8E WITHIN 20NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
12HR
POSITION 100900UTC 36.8N 127.6E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 47KT
15HR
POSITION 101200UTC 37.4N 127.4E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 47KT
18HR
POSITION 101500UTC 37.9N 127.1E WITHIN 45NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 39KT
24HR
POSITION 102100UTC 38.5N 126.1E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 39KT
30HR
POSITION 110300UTC 39.0N 125.3E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 37KT
36HR
POSITION 110900UTC 39.5N 124.8E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 092100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 092100UTC 34.0N 128.6E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 100900UTC 37.2N 127.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 102100UTC 38.3N 126.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 111800UTC 39.9N 124.4E 55NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 092100
WARNING 092100.
WARNING VALID 102100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 975 HPA
AT 34.0N 128.6E SEA AROUND TUSHIMA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100900UTC AT 37.2N 127.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100UTC AT 38.3N 126.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.58 FOR STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 33.3N, 128.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SURFACE
WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW
DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT09. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT06 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW
TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 092100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230809191349
2023080918 06W KHANUN 055 02 360 13 SATL RADR SYNP 060
T000 337N 1288E 055 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 363N 1279E 045 R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 381N 1266E 030
T036 394N 1253E 025
T048 406N 1248E 020
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 055
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 055
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 33.7N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.7N 128.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 36.3N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 38.1N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 39.4N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 40.6N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 34.3N 128.6E.
09AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 58 NM
NORTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 80918Z IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z,
100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080700 278N1311E 55
0623080700 278N1311E 55
0623080706 281N1312E 55
0623080706 281N1312E 55
0623080712 284N1311E 55
0623080712 284N1311E 55
0623080718 286N1310E 50
0623080718 286N1310E 50
0623080800 290N1309E 40
0623080806 294N1307E 45
0623080812 300N1304E 50
0623080812 300N1304E 50
0623080818 305N1298E 55
0623080818 305N1298E 55
0623080900 309N1293E 55
0623080900 309N1293E 55
0623080906 317N1289E 50
0623080906 317N1289E 50
0623080912 324N1288E 60
0623080912 324N1288E 60
0623080918 337N1288E 55
0623080918 337N1288E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 055//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 055
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 33.7N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.7N 128.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 36.3N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 38.1N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 39.4N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 40.6N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 34.3N 128.6E.
09AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 58 NM
NORTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091800Z IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z,
100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091800UTC 33.3N 128.6E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 100600UTC 36.6N 127.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 101800UTC 38.0N 126.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 111800UTC 39.9N 124.4E 55NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 091800
WARNING 091800.
WARNING VALID 101800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 975 HPA
AT 33.3N 128.6E SEA AROUND TUSHIMA MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 36.6N 127.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 38.0N 126.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 39.9N 124.4E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 091500
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 54
NAME 2306 KHANUN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 091500UTC 32.8N 128.6E
MOVEMENT NNW 6KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 092100UTC 34.1N 128.3E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
12HR
POSITION 100300UTC 35.6N 128.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
18HR
POSITION 100900UTC 36.8N 127.6E WITHIN 45NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
21HR
POSITION 101200UTC 37.4N 127.4E WITHIN 50NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 101500UTC 37.9N 127.1E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 39KT
30HR
POSITION 102100UTC 38.5N 126.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 37KT
36HR
POSITION 110300UTC 39.0N 125.3E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 35KT
42HR
POSITION 110900UTC 39.5N 124.8E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 33KT
48HR
POSITION 111500UTC 40.0N 124.6E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 25KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 091500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091500UTC 32.7N 128.6E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 100300UTC 35.6N 128.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 101500UTC 37.7N 126.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 111200UTC 39.2N 124.5E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 091500
WARNING 091500.
WARNING VALID 101500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 975 HPA
AT 32.7N 128.6E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100300UTC AT 35.6N 128.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101500UTC AT 37.7N 126.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.57 FOR STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 32.4N, 128.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SURFACE
WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT18. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND
LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 091500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230809132110
2023080912 06W KHANUN 054 02 355 09 SATL 025
T000 324N 1288E 060 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 348N 1282E 055 R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 370N 1270E 045 R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 384N 1259E 035 R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 395N 1251E 030
T072 420N 1244E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 054
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 054
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 32.4N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.4N 128.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 34.8N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 37.0N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 38.4N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 39.5N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 42.0N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 33.0N 128.6E. 09AUG23.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
62 NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 09 KNOTSOVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091200Z IS 978 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080700 278N1311E 55
0623080700 278N1311E 55
0623080706 281N1312E 55
0623080706 281N1312E 55
0623080712 284N1311E 55
0623080712 284N1311E 55
0623080718 286N1310E 50
0623080718 286N1310E 50
0623080800 290N1309E 40
0623080806 294N1307E 45
0623080812 300N1304E 50
0623080812 300N1304E 50
0623080818 305N1298E 55
0623080818 305N1298E 55
0623080900 309N1293E 55
0623080900 309N1293E 55
0623080906 315N1289E 55
0623080906 315N1289E 55
0623080912 324N1288E 60
0623080912 324N1288E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 054//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 054
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 32.4N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.4N 128.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 34.8N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 37.0N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 38.4N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 39.5N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 42.0N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 33.0N 128.6E. 09AUG23.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
62 NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 09 KNOTSOVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091200Z IS 978 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091200UTC 32.4N 128.8E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 100000UTC 34.8N 128.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 101200UTC 37.4N 126.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 111200UTC 39.2N 124.5E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 091200
WARNING 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 975 HPA
AT 32.4N 128.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 34.8N 128.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 37.4N 126.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 39.2N 124.5E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 090900
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 52
NAME 2306 KHANUN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 090900UTC 32.0N 128.8E
MOVEMENT N 8KT
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 091500UTC 33.0N 128.5E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
12HR
POSITION 092100UTC 34.3N 128.3E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
18HR
POSITION 100300UTC 35.6N 128.0E WITHIN 45NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
24HR
POSITION 100900UTC 36.8N 127.6E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
30HR
POSITION 101500UTC 37.9N 127.1E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 102100UTC 38.5N 126.0E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 43KT
42HR
POSITION 110300UTC 39.0N 125.3E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 39KT
48HR
POSITION 110900UTC 39.5N 124.8E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 35KT
60HR
POSITION 112100UTC 40.0N 124.5E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 25KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 090900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090900UTC 31.9N 128.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 092100UTC 34.1N 128.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 100900UTC 36.8N 127.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 110600UTC 38.9N 125.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 120600UTC 40.8N 124.2E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 090900
WARNING 090900.
WARNING VALID 100900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 975 HPA
AT 31.9N 128.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100UTC AT 34.1N 128.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100900UTC AT 36.8N 127.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.56 FOR STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 31.6N, 128.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN
PENINSULA BY FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT18 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP
AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090600UTC 31.6N 128.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 091800UTC 33.4N 128.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 100600UTC 36.3N 127.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 110600UTC 38.9N 125.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 120600UTC 40.8N 124.2E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 090600
WARNING 090600.
WARNING VALID 100600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 975 HPA
AT 31.6N 128.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 33.4N 128.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 36.3N 127.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 38.9N 125.3E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 40.8N 124.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 090300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090300UTC 31.1N 129.1E GOOD
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 091500UTC 32.8N 128.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 100300UTC 35.5N 127.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 110000UTC 37.9N 125.6E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 120000UTC 39.8N 124.5E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 090300
WARNING 090300.
WARNING VALID 100300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 975 HPA
AT 31.1N 129.1E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 32.8N 128.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100300UTC AT 35.5N 127.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 090300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230809014352
2023080900 06W KHANUN 052 02 315 06 SATL RADR SYNP 025
T000 309N 1293E 055 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 323N 1285E 060 R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 344N 1278E 055 R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 363N 1270E 040 R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 379N 1261E 035 R034 130 NE QD 080 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 404N 1250E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 052
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 052
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 30.9N 129.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.9N 129.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 32.3N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 34.4N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 36.3N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 37.9N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 40.4N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 31.2N 129.1E.
09AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM
SOUTH OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090000Z IS 979 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080700 278N1311E 55
0623080700 278N1311E 55
0623080706 281N1312E 55
0623080706 281N1312E 55
0623080712 284N1311E 55
0623080712 284N1311E 55
0623080718 286N1310E 50
0623080718 286N1310E 50
0623080800 290N1309E 40
0623080806 294N1307E 45
0623080812 300N1304E 50
0623080812 300N1304E 50
0623080818 305N1298E 55
0623080818 305N1298E 55
0623080900 309N1293E 55
0623080900 309N1293E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 052//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 052
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 30.9N 129.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.9N 129.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 32.3N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 34.4N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 36.3N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 37.9N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 40.4N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 31.2N 129.1E.
09AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM
SOUTH OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090000Z IS 979 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.55 FOR STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 30.9N, 129.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT36. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP
AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 30.9N 129.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 091200UTC 32.3N 128.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 100000UTC 34.6N 128.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 110000UTC 37.9N 125.6E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 120000UTC 39.8N 124.5E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 090000
WARNING 090000.
WARNING VALID 100000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 975 HPA
AT 30.9N 129.3E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 32.3N 128.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 34.6N 128.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 37.9N 125.6E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 39.8N 124.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 082100
WARNING 082100.
WARNING VALID 092100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 30.6N 129.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900UTC AT 32.0N 128.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100UTC AT 34.1N 128.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 082100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 082100UTC 30.6N 129.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 090900UTC 32.0N 128.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 092100UTC 34.1N 128.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 101800UTC 37.8N 126.5E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 111800UTC 40.5N 124.1E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 082100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230808200141
2023080818 06W KHANUN 051 02 315 07 SATL RADR SYNP 025
T000 305N 1298E 055 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 318N 1289E 060 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 335N 1282E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 356N 1275E 045 R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 374N 1266E 035 R034 130 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 400N 1253E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 051
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 051
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 30.5N 129.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.5N 129.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 31.8N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 33.5N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 35.6N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 37.4N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 40.0N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 30.8N 129.6E.
08AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 156 NM
SOUTH OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081800Z IS 977 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080700 278N1311E 55
0623080700 278N1311E 55
0623080706 281N1312E 55
0623080706 281N1312E 55
0623080712 284N1311E 55
0623080712 284N1311E 55
0623080718 286N1310E 50
0623080718 286N1310E 50
0623080800 290N1309E 40
0623080806 294N1307E 45
0623080812 300N1304E 50
0623080812 300N1304E 50
0623080818 305N1298E 55
0623080818 305N1298E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 051//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 051
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 30.5N 129.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.5N 129.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 31.8N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 33.5N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 35.6N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 37.4N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 40.0N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 30.8N 129.6E.
08AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 156 NM
SOUTH OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081800Z IS 977 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 081800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.54 FOR STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 30.4N, 129.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. METOP-C/MHS
85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT36. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP
AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 081800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081800UTC 30.4N 129.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 090600UTC 31.8N 128.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 091800UTC 33.5N 128.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 101800UTC 37.8N 126.5E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 111800UTC 40.5N 124.1E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 081800
WARNING 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 30.4N 129.7E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 31.8N 128.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 33.5N 128.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 37.8N 126.5E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 40.5N 124.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 081500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081500UTC 30.2N 130.1E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 090300UTC 31.6N 128.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 091500UTC 33.1N 128.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 101200UTC 37.2N 126.6E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 111200UTC 40.2N 125.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 121200UTC 44.8N 125.2E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 081500
WARNING 081500.
WARNING VALID 091500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 30.2N 130.1E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 31.6N 128.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 33.1N 128.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 081500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230808131808
2023080812 06W KHANUN 050 02 335 07 SATL 030
T000 300N 1304E 050 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 313N 1294E 055 R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 328N 1286E 060 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 347N 1280E 055 R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 369N 1270E 045 R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 402N 1258E 030
T096 432N 1255E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 050
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 050
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 30.0N 130.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.0N 130.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 31.3N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 32.8N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 34.7N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 36.9N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 40.2N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 43.2N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 30.3N 130.1E. 08AUG23.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
189 NM SOUTH OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081200Z IS 979 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080700 278N1311E 55
0623080700 278N1311E 55
0623080706 281N1312E 55
0623080706 281N1312E 55
0623080712 284N1311E 55
0623080712 284N1311E 55
0623080718 286N1310E 50
0623080718 286N1310E 50
0623080800 290N1309E 40
0623080806 294N1307E 45
0623080812 300N1304E 50
0623080812 300N1304E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 050//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 050
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 30.0N 130.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.0N 130.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 31.3N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 32.8N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 34.7N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 36.9N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 40.2N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 43.2N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 30.3N 130.1E. 08AUG23.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
189 NM SOUTH OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081200Z IS 979 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.53 FOR STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 29.9N, 130.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY
FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED
VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081200UTC 29.9N 130.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 090000UTC 31.3N 128.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 091200UTC 32.5N 128.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 101200UTC 37.2N 126.6E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 111200UTC 40.2N 125.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 121200UTC 44.8N 125.2E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 081200
WARNING 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 29.9N 130.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 31.3N 128.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 32.5N 128.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 37.2N 126.6E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 40.2N 125.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 44.8N 125.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 080900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080900UTC 29.6N 130.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 082100UTC 30.9N 129.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 090900UTC 32.2N 128.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 100600UTC 36.3N 127.3E 55NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 110600UTC 39.4N 125.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 120600UTC 43.8N 125.6E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 080900
WARNING 080900.
WARNING VALID 090900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 29.6N 130.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 082100UTC AT 30.9N 129.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900UTC AT 32.2N 128.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 080600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.52 FOR STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 29.4N, 130.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS
CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A
CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT48. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 080900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230808070707
2023080806 06W KHANUN 049 02 335 04 SATL 030
T000 294N 1307E 045 R034 130 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 305N 1298E 050 R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 319N 1290E 055 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 338N 1283E 055 R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 359N 1276E 045 R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 395N 1264E 030
T096 433N 1264E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 049
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 049
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 29.4N 130.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.4N 130.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 30.5N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 31.9N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 33.8N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 35.9N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 39.5N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 43.3N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 29.7N 130.5E. 08AUG23.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
228 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 80806Z IS 979 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080700 278N1311E 55
0623080700 278N1311E 55
0623080706 281N1312E 55
0623080706 281N1312E 55
0623080712 284N1311E 55
0623080712 284N1311E 55
0623080718 286N1310E 50
0623080718 286N1310E 50
0623080800 290N1309E 40
0623080806 294N1307E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 049//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 049
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 29.4N 130.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.4N 130.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 30.5N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 31.9N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 33.8N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 35.9N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 39.5N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 43.3N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 29.7N 130.5E. 08AUG23.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
228 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 80806Z IS 979 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 080600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080600UTC 29.4N 130.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 081800UTC 30.7N 129.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 090600UTC 31.8N 128.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 100600UTC 36.3N 127.3E 55NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 110600UTC 39.4N 125.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 120600UTC 43.8N 125.6E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 080600
WARNING 080600.
WARNING VALID 090600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 29.4N 130.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 30.7N 129.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 31.8N 128.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 36.3N 127.3E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 39.4N 125.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 43.8N 125.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 080300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080300UTC 29.1N 130.9E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 081500UTC 30.4N 129.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 090300UTC 31.6N 128.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 100000UTC 34.8N 127.5E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 110000UTC 38.3N 125.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 120000UTC 42.7N 125.6E 175NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 080300
WARNING 080300.
WARNING VALID 090300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 29.1N 130.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081500UTC AT 30.4N 129.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 31.6N 128.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 080300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230808012754
2023080800 06W KHANUN 048 02 335 04 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 289N 1309E 040 R034 130 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 298N 1301E 050 R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 311N 1292E 055 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 326N 1285E 055 R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 347N 1278E 045 R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 384N 1265E 030
T096 423N 1265E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 048
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 048
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 28.9N 130.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9N 130.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.8N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 31.1N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 32.6N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 34.7N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 38.4N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 42.3N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 29.1N 130.7E.
08AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
080000Z IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080700 278N1311E 55
0623080700 278N1311E 55
0623080706 281N1312E 55
0623080706 281N1312E 55
0623080712 284N1311E 55
0623080712 284N1311E 55
0623080718 285N1311E 50
0623080718 285N1311E 50
0623080800 289N1309E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 048//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 048
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 28.9N 130.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9N 130.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.8N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 31.1N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 32.6N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 34.7N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 38.4N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 42.3N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 29.1N 130.7E.
08AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
080000Z IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.51 FOR STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 28.9N, 131.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS.
HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 28.9N 131.0E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 081200UTC 30.0N 130.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 090000UTC 31.3N 128.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 100000UTC 34.8N 127.5E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 110000UTC 38.3N 125.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 120000UTC 42.7N 125.6E 175NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 080000
WARNING 080000.
WARNING VALID 090000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 28.9N 131.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 30.0N 130.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 31.3N 128.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 34.8N 127.5E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 38.3N 125.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 42.7N 125.6E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 072100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 072100UTC 28.7N 131.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 080900UTC 29.9N 130.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 082100UTC 31.1N 129.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 091800UTC 33.7N 128.0E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 101800UTC 37.9N 126.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 111800UTC 41.8N 125.4E 175NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 072100
WARNING 072100.
WARNING VALID 082100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 28.7N 131.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080900UTC AT 29.9N 130.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 082100UTC AT 31.1N 129.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 072100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230807193552
2023080718 06W KHANUN 047 02 360 01 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 285N 1311E 050 R050 080 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 294N 1305E 055 R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 305N 1297E 060 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 318N 1289E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 337N 1282E 060 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 376N 1269E 040 R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 415N 1268E 025
T120 451N 1272E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 047
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 047
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 28.5N 131.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N 131.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 29.4N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 30.5N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 31.8N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 33.7N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 37.6N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 41.5N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 45.1N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 28.7N 130.9E.
07AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOT
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071800Z IS 975 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080700 278N1311E 55
0623080700 278N1311E 55
0623080706 281N1312E 55
0623080706 281N1312E 55
0623080712 284N1311E 55
0623080712 284N1311E 55
0623080718 285N1311E 50
0623080718 285N1311E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 047//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 047
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 28.5N 131.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N 131.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 29.4N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 30.5N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 31.8N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 33.7N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 37.6N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 41.5N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 45.1N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 28.7N 130.9E.
07AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOT
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071800Z IS 975
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 07W (SEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.50 FOR STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 28.6N, 131.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS
CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A
CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 28.6N 131.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 080600UTC 29.6N 130.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 081800UTC 30.6N 129.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 091800UTC 33.7N 128.0E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 101800UTC 37.9N 126.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 111800UTC 41.8N 125.4E 175NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 071800
WARNING 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 28.6N 131.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 29.6N 130.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 30.6N 129.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 33.7N 128.0E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 37.9N 126.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 41.8N 125.4E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 071500
WARNING 071500.
WARNING VALID 081500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 28.5N 131.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 29.2N 130.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081500UTC AT 30.1N 129.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 071500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071500UTC 28.5N 131.1E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 080300UTC 29.2N 130.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 081500UTC 30.1N 129.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 091200UTC 32.3N 128.2E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 101200UTC 36.7N 126.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 111200UTC 39.9N 123.6E 175NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 121200UTC 44.8N 126.1E 215NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.49 FOR STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 28.4N, 131.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS
CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071200UTC 28.4N 131.2E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 080000UTC 28.9N 130.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 081200UTC 29.7N 129.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 091200UTC 32.3N 128.2E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 101200UTC 36.7N 126.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 111200UTC 39.9N 123.6E 175NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 121200UTC 44.8N 126.1E 215NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 071200
WARNING 071200.
WARNING VALID 081200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 28.4N 131.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 28.9N 130.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 29.7N 129.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 32.3N 128.2E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 36.7N 126.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 39.9N 123.6E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 44.8N 126.1E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 070900
WARNING 070900.
WARNING VALID 080900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 28.2N 131.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 072100UTC AT 29.0N 130.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080900UTC AT 29.7N 130.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 070900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070900UTC 28.2N 131.1E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 072100UTC 29.0N 130.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 080900UTC 29.7N 130.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 090600UTC 31.6N 128.6E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 100600UTC 36.2N 127.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 110600UTC 39.7N 124.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 120600UTC 43.4N 126.0E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 070900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230807073006
2023080706 06W KHANUN 045 01 025 02 SATL RADR 045
T000 280N 1312E 055 R050 000 NE QD 100 SE QD 140 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 286N 1311E 055 R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 294N 1306E 060 R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 304N 1300E 065 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 318N 1294E 065 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 355N 1282E 060 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 397N 1270E 040 R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 438N 1258E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 045
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 045
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 28.0N 131.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.0N 131.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 28.6N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 29.4N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 30.4N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 31.8N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 35.5N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 39.7N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 43.8N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 28.2N 131.2E.
07AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 316
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070600Z IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z,
072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080700 278N1311E 55
0623080700 278N1311E 55
0623080706 280N1312E 55
0623080706 280N1312E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 045//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 045
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 28.0N 131.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.0N 131.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 28.6N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 29.4N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 30.4N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 31.8N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 35.5N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 39.7N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 43.8N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 28.2N 131.2E.
07AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 316
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070600Z IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z,
072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.48 FOR STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 28.2N, 131.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070600UTC 28.2N 131.0E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 071800UTC 28.7N 131.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 080600UTC 29.3N 130.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 090600UTC 31.6N 128.6E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 100600UTC 36.2N 127.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 110600UTC 39.7N 124.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 120600UTC 43.4N 126.0E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 070600
WARNING 070600.
WARNING VALID 080600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 28.2N 131.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 28.7N 131.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 29.3N 130.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 31.6N 128.6E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 36.2N 127.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 39.7N 124.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 43.4N 126.0E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 070300
WARNING 070300.
WARNING VALID 080300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 28.1N 131.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071500UTC AT 28.5N 131.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 29.1N 130.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 070300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070300UTC 28.1N 131.2E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 071500UTC 28.5N 131.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 080300UTC 29.1N 130.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 090000UTC 30.7N 129.1E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 100000UTC 34.3N 128.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 110000UTC 39.2N 125.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 120000UTC 43.6N 124.9E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 070300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230807013210
2023080700 06W KHANUN 044 01 105 04 SATL RADR 040
T000 278N 1311E 055 R050 000 NE QD 100 SE QD 140 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 170 SE QD 205 SW QD 195 NW QD
T012 282N 1313E 055 R050 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 290N 1309E 060 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 298N 1303E 060 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 309N 1297E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 344N 1285E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 387N 1273E 040 R034 170 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 428N 1261E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 044
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 27.8N 131.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8N 131.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.2N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.0N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.8N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 30.9N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 34.4N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 38.7N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 42.8N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 27.9N 131.1E.
07AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 326
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070000Z IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 34 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080700 278N1311E 55
0623080700 278N1311E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 044//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 27.8N 131.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8N 131.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.2N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.0N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.8N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 30.9N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 34.4N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 38.7N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 42.8N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 27.9N 131.1E.
07AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 326
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 070000Z IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070000Z IS 34 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.47 FOR STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 27.9N, 131.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A
CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP
AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP
AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP, INCREASED VWS
AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 27.9N 131.2E GOOD
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 071200UTC 28.3N 131.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 080000UTC 29.0N 130.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 090000UTC 30.7N 129.1E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 100000UTC 34.3N 128.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 110000UTC 39.2N 125.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 120000UTC 43.6N 124.9E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 070000
WARNING 070000.
WARNING VALID 080000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 27.9N 131.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 28.3N 131.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 29.0N 130.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 30.7N 129.1E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 34.3N 128.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 39.2N 125.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 43.6N 124.9E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 062100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 062100UTC 27.6N 131.0E GOOD
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 070900UTC 28.2N 131.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 072100UTC 28.9N 130.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 081800UTC 30.3N 129.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 091800UTC 33.7N 128.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 101800UTC 39.2N 126.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 111800UTC 42.6N 124.4E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 062100
WARNING 062100.
WARNING VALID 072100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 27.6N 131.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070900UTC AT 28.2N 131.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 072100UTC AT 28.9N 130.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 062100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230806194151
2023080618 06W KHANUN 043 01 010 05 SATL RADR 030
T000 279N 1307E 055 R050 000 NE QD 100 SE QD 140 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 170 SE QD 205 SW QD 195 NW QD
T012 281N 1311E 055 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 290N 1310E 060 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 296N 1305E 060 R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 307N 1299E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 180 NW QD
T072 337N 1289E 065 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 380N 1278E 040 R034 180 NE QD 140 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 426N 1263E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 043
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 27.9N 130.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N 130.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 28.1N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 29.0N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 29.6N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 30.7N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 33.7N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 38.0N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 42.6N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 28.0N 130.8E.
06AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 176
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061800Z IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.
//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
0623080618 279N1307E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 043//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 27.9N 130.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N 130.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 28.1N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 29.0N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 29.6N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 30.7N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 33.7N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 38.0N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 42.6N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 28.0N 130.8E.
06AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 176
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061800Z IS 976
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.46 FOR STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 27.6N, 130.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, LAND AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061800UTC 27.6N 130.9E GOOD
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 070600UTC 28.0N 131.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 071800UTC 28.8N 130.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 081800UTC 30.3N 129.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 091800UTC 33.7N 128.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 101800UTC 39.2N 126.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 111800UTC 42.6N 124.4E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 061800
WARNING 061800.
WARNING VALID 071800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 27.6N 130.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 28.0N 131.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 28.8N 130.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 30.3N 129.4E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 33.7N 128.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 39.2N 126.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 42.6N 124.4E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 061500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061500UTC 27.6N 130.8E GOOD
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 070300UTC 28.0N 131.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 071500UTC 28.4N 131.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 081200UTC 29.7N 130.1E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 091200UTC 32.3N 128.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 101200UTC 37.5N 127.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
117HF 111200UTC 41.5N 125.3E 215NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 061500
WARNING 061500.
WARNING VALID 071500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 27.6N 130.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070300UTC AT 28.0N 131.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071500UTC AT 28.4N 131.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 061500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230806132617
2023080612 06W KHANUN 042 01 125 05 SATL RADR 045
T000 274N 1306E 055 R050 000 NE QD 100 SE QD 140 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 170 SE QD 205 SW QD 195 NW QD
T012 277N 1312E 055 R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 282N 1312E 055 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 289N 1309E 060 R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 298N 1304E 065 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 325N 1295E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 364N 1285E 055 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 411N 1271E 035 R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 042
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 27.4N 130.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4N 130.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 27.7N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.2N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 28.9N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.8N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 32.5N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 36.4N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 41.1N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 27.5N 130.7E.
06AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345
NM SOUTH OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061200Z IS
976 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 34 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080606 277N1301E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
0623080612 274N1306E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 042//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 27.4N 130.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4N 130.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 27.7N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.2N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 28.9N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.8N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 32.5N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 36.4N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 41.1N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 27.5N 130.7E.
06AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345
NM SOUTH OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061200Z IS
976 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 34 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.45 FOR STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 27.6N, 130.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UNTIL FT72 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, LAND AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 27.6N 130.7E GOOD
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 070000UTC 27.9N 131.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 071200UTC 28.3N 131.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 081200UTC 29.7N 130.1E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 091200UTC 32.3N 128.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 101200UTC 37.5N 127.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 111200UTC 41.5N 125.3E 215NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 061200
WARNING 061200.
WARNING VALID 071200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 27.6N 130.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 27.9N 131.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 28.3N 131.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 29.7N 130.1E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 32.3N 128.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 37.5N 127.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 41.5N 125.3E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 060900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060900UTC 27.9N 130.3E GOOD
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 062100UTC 27.9N 130.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 070900UTC 28.1N 131.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 080600UTC 29.3N 130.3E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 090600UTC 31.5N 129.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 100600UTC 36.4N 128.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 110600UTC 40.9N 126.5E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 060900
WARNING 060900.
WARNING VALID 070900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 27.9N 130.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 062100UTC AT 27.9N 130.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070900UTC AT 28.1N 131.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 060900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230806072535
2023080606 06W KHANUN 041 01 060 06 SATL RADR 050
T000 278N 1301E 055 R050 000 NE QD 100 SE QD 140 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 170 SE QD 205 SW QD 195 NW QD
T012 279N 1310E 055 R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 180 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 283N 1313E 055 R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 289N 1311E 060 R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 297N 1305E 065 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 320N 1296E 070 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T096 357N 1288E 060 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 100 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 404N 1274E 045 R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 041
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 041
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 27.8N 130.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8N 130.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 27.9N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 28.3N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 28.9N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 29.7N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 32.0N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 35.7N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 40.4N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 27.8N 130.3E.
06AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 319
NM SOUTH OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
060600Z IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z
IS 36 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080606 278N1301E 55
0623080606 278N1301E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 041 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 041
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 27.8N 130.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8N 130.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 27.9N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 28.3N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 28.9N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 29.7N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 32.0N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 35.7N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 40.4N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 27.8N 130.3E.
06AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 319
NM SOUTH OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
060600Z IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z
IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.44 FOR STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 27.9N, 130.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE EASTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP, LAND AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 060600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 39
NAME 2306 KHANUN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 060600UTC 27.8N 130.0E
MOVEMENT NE 5KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 061800UTC 27.9N 130.9E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
24HR
POSITION 070600UTC 28.1N 131.2E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
36HR
POSITION 071800UTC 28.9N 130.8E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
48HR
POSITION 080600UTC 29.7N 130.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
72HR
POSITION 090600UTC 32.1N 129.2E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
96HR
POSITION 100600UTC 36.3N 128.7E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
120HR
POSITION 110600UTC 41.0N 126.9E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060600UTC 27.9N 130.0E GOOD
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 061800UTC 27.9N 130.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 070600UTC 28.0N 131.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 080600UTC 29.3N 130.3E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 090600UTC 31.5N 129.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 100600UTC 36.4N 128.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 110600UTC 40.9N 126.5E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 060600
WARNING 060600.
WARNING VALID 070600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 27.9N 130.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 27.9N 130.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 28.0N 131.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 29.3N 130.3E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 31.5N 129.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 36.4N 128.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 40.9N 126.5E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 060300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060300UTC 27.9N 129.6E GOOD
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 061500UTC 27.9N 130.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 070300UTC 28.1N 131.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 080000UTC 29.2N 130.9E 55NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 090000UTC 30.9N 129.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 100000UTC 34.8N 129.6E 125NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 110000UTC 39.0N 127.8E 215NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 060300
WARNING 060300.
WARNING VALID 070300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 27.9N 129.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061500UTC AT 27.9N 130.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070300UTC AT 28.1N 131.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 060300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230806014945
2023080600 06W KHANUN 040 01 135 07 SATL RADR 025
T000 275N 1295E 055 R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 195 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 275N 1306E 055 R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 180 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 277N 1313E 055 R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 283N 1315E 060 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 290N 1310E 065 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 309N 1300E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 343N 1293E 065 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 160 NW QD
T120 394N 1278E 045 R034 220 NE QD 170 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 040
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 27.5N 129.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5N 129.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 27.5N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 27.7N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.3N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.0N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 30.9N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 34.3N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 39.4N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 27.5N 129.8E.
06AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109
NM NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060600Z IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 36 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.
//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080600 275N1295E 55
0623080600 275N1295E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 040//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 27.5N 129.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5N 129.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 27.5N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 27.7N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.3N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.0N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 30.9N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 34.3N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 39.4N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 27.5N 129.8E.
06AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109
NM NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060600Z IS 976
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 36 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.43 FOR STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 27.8N, 129.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP, LAND AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 060000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 38
NAME 2306 KHANUN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 060000UTC 27.7N 129.4E
MOVEMENT SE 6KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 061200UTC 27.9N 130.4E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
24HR
POSITION 070000UTC 28.1N 131.0E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
36HR
POSITION 071200UTC 28.6N 131.2E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
48HR
POSITION 080000UTC 29.4N 130.9E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
72HR
POSITION 090000UTC 31.4N 129.8E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
96HR
POSITION 100000UTC 35.1N 129.7E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
120HR
POSITION 110000UTC 39.2N 128.2E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 27.8N 129.3E GOOD
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 061200UTC 27.8N 130.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 070000UTC 28.0N 131.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 080000UTC 29.2N 130.9E 55NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 090000UTC 30.9N 129.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 100000UTC 34.8N 129.6E 125NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 110000UTC 39.0N 127.8E 215NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 060000
WARNING 060000.
WARNING VALID 070000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 27.8N 129.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 27.8N 130.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 28.0N 131.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 29.2N 130.9E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 30.9N 129.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 34.8N 129.6E WITH 125 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 39.0N 127.8E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 052100
WARNING 052100.
WARNING VALID 062100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 27.9N 129.0E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060900UTC AT 27.9N 130.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 062100UTC AT 28.0N 131.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 052100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 052100UTC 27.9N 129.0E GOOD
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 060900UTC 27.9N 130.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 062100UTC 28.0N 131.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 071800UTC 29.0N 130.9E 55NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 081800UTC 30.5N 130.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 091800UTC 34.2N 130.4E 125NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 101800UTC 40.4N 129.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 052100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230805195152
2023080518 06W KHANUN 039 01 075 04 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 280N 1289E 060 R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 195 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 281N 1299E 055 R050 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 180 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 283N 1309E 055 R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 180 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 287N 1315E 060 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 295N 1312E 065 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 309N 1306E 070 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 343N 1299E 060 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T120 393N 1289E 050 R050 060 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 039
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 28.0N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.0N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 28.1N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 28.3N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 28.7N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 29.5N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 30.9N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 34.3N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 39.3N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 28.0N 129.2E.
05AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 107
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 051800Z IS 975 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.
//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080506 278N1277E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080512 279N1285E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
0623080518 280N1289E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 039//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 28.0N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.0N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 28.1N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 28.3N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 28.7N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 29.5N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 30.9N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 34.3N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 39.3N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 28.0N 129.2E.
05AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 107
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
051800Z IS 975 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 32
FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.42 FOR STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 28.0N, 128.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP, LAND AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 051800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 37
NAME 2306 KHANUN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 051800UTC 27.9N 129.0E
MOVEMENT E 5KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 060600UTC 27.9N 130.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
24HR
POSITION 061800UTC 28.0N 130.7E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
36HR
POSITION 070600UTC 28.3N 131.2E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
48HR
POSITION 071800UTC 29.1N 131.0E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 081800UTC 30.7N 130.4E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 091800UTC 34.4N 130.3E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
120HR
POSITION 101800UTC 40.5N 129.8E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 28.0N 128.9E GOOD
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 060600UTC 28.0N 130.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 061800UTC 28.0N 130.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 071800UTC 29.0N 130.9E 55NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 081800UTC 30.5N 130.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 091800UTC 34.2N 130.4E 125NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 101800UTC 40.4N 129.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 051800
WARNING 051800.
WARNING VALID 061800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 28.0N 128.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 28.0N 130.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 28.0N 130.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 29.0N 130.9E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 30.5N 130.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 34.2N 130.4E WITH 125 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 40.4N 129.5E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 051500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051500UTC 27.9N 128.7E GOOD
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 060300UTC 27.8N 129.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 061500UTC 27.8N 130.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 071200UTC 28.9N 131.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 081200UTC 30.5N 130.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 091200UTC 33.6N 130.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 101200UTC 40.6N 130.8E 215NM 70%
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 051500
WARNING 051500.
WARNING VALID 061500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 27.9N 128.7E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060300UTC AT 27.8N 129.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061500UTC AT 27.8N 130.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.41 FOR STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 27.8N, 128.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP, LAND AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 051200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 36
NAME 2306 KHANUN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 051200UTC 27.8N 128.4E
MOVEMENT E 5KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 060000UTC 27.8N 129.5E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
24HR
POSITION 061200UTC 27.8N 130.5E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
36HR
POSITION 070000UTC 28.1N 131.3E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
48HR
POSITION 071200UTC 28.8N 131.4E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 081200UTC 30.5N 130.8E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 091200UTC 33.7N 130.5E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
120HR
POSITION 101200UTC 39.6N 131.0E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 27.8N 128.4E GOOD
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 060000UTC 27.8N 129.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 061200UTC 27.8N 130.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 071200UTC 28.9N 131.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 081200UTC 30.5N 130.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 091200UTC 33.6N 130.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 101200UTC 40.6N 130.8E 215NM 70%
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 051200
WARNING 051200.
WARNING VALID 061200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 27.8N 128.4E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 27.8N 129.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 27.8N 130.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 28.9N 131.4E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 30.5N 130.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 33.6N 130.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 40.6N 130.8E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 050900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050900UTC 27.8N 128.1E GOOD
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 052100UTC 27.8N 129.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 060900UTC 27.8N 130.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 070600UTC 28.5N 131.5E 55NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 080600UTC 30.1N 131.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 090600UTC 32.6N 131.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 100600UTC 39.2N 131.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 050900
WARNING 050900.
WARNING VALID 060900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 27.8N 128.1E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 052100UTC AT 27.8N 129.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060900UTC AT 27.8N 130.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.40 FOR STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 27.8N, 127.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. S-NPP/ATMS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP, LAND AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 050600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 35
NAME 2306 KHANUN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 050600UTC 27.8N 127.6E
MOVEMENT ENE 6KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 051800UTC 27.8N 128.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
24HR
POSITION 060600UTC 27.9N 129.9E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
36HR
POSITION 061800UTC 27.9N 130.8E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
48HR
POSITION 070600UTC 28.5N 131.3E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 080600UTC 30.0N 131.1E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
96HR
POSITION 090600UTC 32.5N 130.6E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
120HR
POSITION 100600UTC 38.0N 131.1E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 27.8N 127.6E GOOD
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 051800UTC 27.8N 128.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 060600UTC 27.8N 130.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 070600UTC 28.5N 131.5E 55NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 080600UTC 30.1N 131.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 090600UTC 32.6N 131.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 100600UTC 39.2N 131.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 050600
WARNING 050600.
WARNING VALID 060600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 27.8N 127.6E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 27.8N 128.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 27.8N 130.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 28.5N 131.5E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 30.1N 131.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 32.6N 131.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 39.2N 131.3E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 050300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050300UTC 27.7N 127.2E GOOD
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 051500UTC 27.8N 128.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 060300UTC 27.8N 129.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 070000UTC 28.1N 131.6E 55NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 080000UTC 29.8N 131.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 090000UTC 31.7N 131.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 100000UTC 37.2N 132.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 050300
WARNING 050300.
WARNING VALID 060300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 27.7N 127.2E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051500UTC AT 27.8N 128.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060300UTC AT 27.8N 129.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 050300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230805014428
2023080500 06W KHANUN 036 01 090 04 SATL 030
T000 277N 1269E 055 R050 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 175 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 278N 1282E 055 R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 200 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 278N 1295E 055 R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 200 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 280N 1306E 055 R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 200 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 284N 1313E 060 R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 190 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 302N 1315E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 325N 1310E 055 R050 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 368N 1311E 050 R050 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 036
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 27.7N 126.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.7N 126.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 27.8N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 27.8N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.0N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 28.4N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 30.2N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 32.5N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 36.8N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 27.7N 127.2E.
05AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87 NM
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 80500Z IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z,
051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.
//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
0623080500 277N1269E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 036//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 27.7N 126.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.7N 126.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 27.8N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 27.8N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.0N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 28.4N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 30.2N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 32.5N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 36.8N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 27.7N 127.2E.
05AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87 NM
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050000Z IS 972 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.39 FOR STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 27.7N, 126.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH REDUCED TCHP, LAND AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 050000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 34
NAME 2306 KHANUN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 050000UTC 27.7N 126.8E
MOVEMENT ESE 5KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 051200UTC 27.8N 128.2E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
24HR
POSITION 060000UTC 27.9N 129.5E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
36HR
POSITION 061200UTC 28.0N 130.6E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
48HR
POSITION 070000UTC 28.3N 131.5E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 080000UTC 30.1N 131.4E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
96HR
POSITION 090000UTC 32.0N 130.8E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
120HR
POSITION 100000UTC 37.2N 131.2E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 27.7N 126.8E GOOD
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 051200UTC 27.9N 128.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 060000UTC 27.8N 129.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 070000UTC 28.1N 131.6E 55NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 080000UTC 29.8N 131.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 090000UTC 31.7N 131.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 100000UTC 37.2N 132.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 050000
WARNING 050000.
WARNING VALID 060000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 27.7N 126.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 27.9N 128.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 27.8N 129.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 28.1N 131.6E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 29.8N 131.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 31.7N 131.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 37.2N 132.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 042100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 042100UTC 27.8N 126.6E GOOD
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 050900UTC 27.9N 128.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 052100UTC 27.8N 129.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 061800UTC 28.0N 131.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 071800UTC 29.6N 131.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 081800UTC 31.7N 131.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 091800UTC 36.4N 130.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 042100
WARNING 042100.
WARNING VALID 052100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 27.8N 126.6E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 27.9N 128.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 052100UTC AT 27.8N 129.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 042100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230804194839
2023080418 06W KHANUN 035 01 060 06 SATL 030
T000 277N 1264E 055 R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 155 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 279N 1278E 055 R050 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 280N 1290E 055 R050 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 280N 1302E 055 R050 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 175 SE QD 165 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 284N 1313E 060 R050 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 300N 1318E 065 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 170 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 322N 1312E 060 R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 170 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 359N 1307E 050 R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 035
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 27.7N 126.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.7N 126.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 27.9N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 28.0N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 28.0N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 28.4N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 30.0N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 32.2N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 35.9N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 27.7N 126.8E.
04AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 104
NM NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 80418Z IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z,
050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.
//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080418 277N1264E 55
0623080418 277N1264E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 27.7N 126.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.7N 126.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 27.9N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 28.0N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 28.0N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 28.4N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 30.0N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 32.2N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 35.9N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 27.7N 126.8E.
04AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 104
NM NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041800Z IS
976 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.38 FOR STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 27.7N, 126.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, LOW
TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-20/ATMS
85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP
AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP, LAND AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 041800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 33
NAME 2306 KHANUN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 041800UTC 27.6N 126.3E
MOVEMENT NE 6KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 050600UTC 27.9N 127.6E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
24HR
POSITION 051800UTC 27.9N 128.9E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
36HR
POSITION 060600UTC 27.9N 130.2E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
48HR
POSITION 061800UTC 28.4N 131.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 071800UTC 29.9N 132.0E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
96HR
POSITION 081800UTC 32.3N 131.2E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
120HR
POSITION 091800UTC 36.3N 130.5E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 27.7N 126.4E GOOD
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 050600UTC 27.9N 127.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 051800UTC 27.9N 128.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 061800UTC 28.0N 131.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 071800UTC 29.6N 131.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 081800UTC 31.7N 131.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 091800UTC 36.4N 130.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 041800
WARNING 041800.
WARNING VALID 051800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 970
HPA
AT 27.7N 126.4E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 27.9N 127.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 27.9N 128.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 28.0N 131.4E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 29.6N 131.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 31.7N 131.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 36.4N 130.5E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 041500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041500UTC 27.5N 126.0E GOOD
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 425NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 050300UTC 27.8N 127.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 051500UTC 27.8N 128.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 061200UTC 27.9N 131.1E 55NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 071200UTC 29.5N 132.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 081200UTC 31.3N 131.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
117HF 091200UTC 34.6N 130.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 041500
WARNING 041500.
WARNING VALID 051500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 965 HPA
AT 27.5N 126.0E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050300UTC AT 27.8N 127.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051500UTC AT 27.8N 128.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 041500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230804134149
2023080412 06W KHANUN 034 01 070 07 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 274N 1258E 060 R050 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 155 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 277N 1270E 055 R050 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 278N 1284E 055 R050 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 279N 1297E 055 R050 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 175 SE QD 165 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 282N 1307E 060 R050 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 295N 1322E 060 R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 180 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 316N 1322E 065 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 170 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 342N 1317E 055 R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 034
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 27.4N 125.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4N 125.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 27.7N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 27.8N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 27.9N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.2N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 29.5N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 31.6N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 34.2N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 27.5N 126.1E. 04AUG23.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
120 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS 972 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080406 272N1251E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
0623080412 274N1258E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 034//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 27.4N 125.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4N 125.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 27.7N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 27.8N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 27.9N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.2N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 29.5N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 31.6N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 34.2N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 27.5N 126.1E. 04AUG23.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
120 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS 972 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.37 FOR TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 27.5N, 125.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP
AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP
AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 041200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 32
NAME 2306 KHANUN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 041200UTC 27.4N 125.7E
MOVEMENT ENE 4KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 050000UTC 27.8N 127.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
24HR
POSITION 051200UTC 27.9N 128.2E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
36HR
POSITION 060000UTC 27.8N 129.5E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
48HR
POSITION 061200UTC 28.1N 130.8E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 071200UTC 29.5N 132.3E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
96HR
POSITION 081200UTC 31.4N 131.6E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
120HR
POSITION 091200UTC 34.6N 130.8E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 27.5N 125.7E GOOD
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 425NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 050000UTC 27.8N 127.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 051200UTC 27.9N 128.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 061200UTC 27.9N 131.1E 55NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 071200UTC 29.5N 132.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 081200UTC 31.3N 131.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
120HF 091200UTC 34.6N 130.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 041200
WARNING 041200.
WARNING VALID 051200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 965 HPA
AT 27.5N 125.7E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 27.8N 127.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 27.9N 128.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 27.9N 131.1E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 29.5N 132.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 31.3N 131.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 34.6N 130.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 040900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040900UTC 27.3N 125.5E GOOD
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 425NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 042100UTC 27.7N 126.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 050900UTC 27.9N 128.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 060600UTC 27.8N 130.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 070600UTC 29.1N 132.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 080600UTC 30.7N 132.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 090600UTC 32.8N 131.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 040900
WARNING 040900.
WARNING VALID 050900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 965 HPA
AT 27.3N 125.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 042100UTC AT 27.7N 126.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 27.9N 128.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 040900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230804075248
2023080406 06W KHANUN 033 01 075 04 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 271N 1250E 060 R050 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 155 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 274N 1260E 055 R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 165 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 277N 1275E 055 R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 185 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 277N 1288E 055 R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 195 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 278N 1300E 055 R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 195 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 287N 1319E 060 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 190 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 305N 1326E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 150 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD
T120 323N 1322E 060 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 140 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 033
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 033
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 06W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 27.1N 125.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.1N 125.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 27.4N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 27.7N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 27.7N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 27.8N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 28.7N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 30.5N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 32.3N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 27.2N 125.3E.
04AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 154
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
040600Z IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z
IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080318 268N1244E 70
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080406 271N1250E 60
0623080406 271N1250E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 033
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 06W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 27.1N 125.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.1N 125.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 27.4N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 27.7N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 27.7N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 27.8N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 28.7N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 30.5N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 32.3N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 27.2N 125.3E.
04AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 154
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
040600Z IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND
050900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.36 FOR TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 27.2N, 125.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP
AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP
AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 040746

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 040600 UTC, TYPHOON KHANUN (2306) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (27.1 N) ONE TWO FIVE
POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (125.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TYPHOON WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE HONG KONG
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (27.8 N)
ONE TWO SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (127.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060600 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (27.8 N)
ONE THREE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (130.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070600 UTC
TWO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (29.2 N)
ONE THREE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (132.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080600 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (30.9 N)
ONE THREE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (132.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 090600 UTC
THREE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (32.8 N)
ONE THREE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (132.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 040600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 31
NAME 2306 KHANUN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 040600UTC 27.1N 125.1E
MOVEMENT ENE 5KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 041800UTC 27.7N 126.2E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
24HR
POSITION 050600UTC 27.9N 127.5E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
36HR
POSITION 051800UTC 27.8N 128.7E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
48HR
POSITION 060600UTC 28.0N 130.3E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 070600UTC 29.2N 132.1E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
96HR
POSITION 080600UTC 30.6N 132.2E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
120HR
POSITION 090600UTC 32.7N 131.5E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 27.2N 125.1E GOOD
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 425NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 041800UTC 27.6N 126.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 050600UTC 27.9N 127.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 060600UTC 27.8N 130.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 070600UTC 29.1N 132.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 080600UTC 30.7N 132.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 090600UTC 32.8N 131.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 040600
WARNING 040600.
WARNING VALID 050600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 965 HPA
AT 27.2N 125.1E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 27.6N 126.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 27.9N 127.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 27.8N 130.4E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 29.1N 132.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 30.7N 132.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 32.8N 131.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 040446

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 040300 UTC, THE TYPHOON KHANUN (2306) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (27.0 N) ONE
TWO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (124.9 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (27.7 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (126.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060300 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (27.8 N)
ONE TWO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (129.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070300 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (28.7 N)
ONE THREE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (131.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080300 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (30.1 N)
ONE THREE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (132.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 090300 UTC
THREE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (32.1 N)
ONE THREE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (132.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 040300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040300UTC 27.0N 124.6E GOOD
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 425NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 041500UTC 27.4N 125.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 050300UTC 27.7N 127.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 060000UTC 27.8N 129.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 070000UTC 28.5N 131.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 080000UTC 29.7N 132.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 090000UTC 31.4N 132.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 040300
WARNING 040300.
WARNING VALID 050300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 965 HPA
AT 27.0N 124.6E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041500UTC AT 27.4N 125.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050300UTC AT 27.7N 127.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 040300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230804011044
2023080400 06W KHANUN 032 01 055 03 SATL SYNP 015
T000 270N 1246E 065 R064 000 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 105 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 273N 1255E 060 R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 210 SE QD 260 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 276N 1266E 055 R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 210 SE QD 230 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 277N 1280E 055 R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 200 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 278N 1294E 055 R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 200 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 284N 1316E 060 R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 190 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 298N 1324E 060 R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 180 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 316N 1327E 060 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 032
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 27.0N 124.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0N 124.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 27.3N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 27.6N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 27.7N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 27.8N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 28.4N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.8N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 31.6N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 27.1N 124.8E.
04AUG23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174 NM WEST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040000Z IS 970 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080318 268N1243E 70
0623080318 268N1243E 70
0623080318 268N1243E 70
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
0623080400 270N1246E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 27.0N 124.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0N 124.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 27.3N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 27.6N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 27.7N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 27.8N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 28.4N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.8N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 31.6N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 27.1N 124.8E.
04AUG23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174 NM WEST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040000Z IS 970 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.35 FOR TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 27.0N, 124.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF DRY AIR AND REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP
AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP
AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 040146

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 040000 UTC, THE TYPHOON KHANUN (2306) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (27.0 N) ONE
TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (124.5 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO BE SLOW MOVING AT FIRST, THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AT
ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (27.7 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (126.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060000 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (27.8 N)
ONE TWO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (129.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070000 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (28.5 N)
ONE THREE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (131.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080000 UTC
TWO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (29.9 N)
ONE THREE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (132.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 090000 UTC
THREE ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (31.8 N)
ONE THREE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (132.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 040000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 30
NAME 2306 KHANUN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 040000UTC 27.0N 124.5E
MOVEMENT E 3KT
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 041200UTC 27.3N 125.4E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
24HR
POSITION 050000UTC 27.7N 126.6E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
36HR
POSITION 051200UTC 27.7N 127.8E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
48HR
POSITION 060000UTC 27.8N 129.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 070000UTC 28.5N 131.5E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
96HR
POSITION 080000UTC 29.7N 132.2E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
120HR
POSITION 090000UTC 31.5N 132.0E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 27.0N 124.1E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 425NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 041200UTC 27.3N 125.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 050000UTC 27.7N 126.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 060000UTC 27.8N 129.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 070000UTC 28.5N 131.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 080000UTC 29.7N 132.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 090000UTC 31.4N 132.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 040000
WARNING 040000.
WARNING VALID 050000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 965 HPA
AT 27.0N 124.1E EAST CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 27.3N 125.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 27.7N 126.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 27.8N 129.4E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 28.5N 131.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 29.7N 132.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 31.4N 132.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 032246

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 032100 UTC, THE TYPHOON KHANUN (2306) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (27.0 N) ONE
TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (124.4 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO BE SLOW-MOVING AT FIRST, THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AT
ABOUT 4 KNOTS LATER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 042100 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (27.6 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (126.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 052100 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (27.8 N)
ONE TWO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (128.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 062100 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (28.3 N)
ONE THREE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (131.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 072100 UTC
TWO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (29.7 N)
ONE THREE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (132.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 082100 UTC
THREE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (31.5 N)
ONE THREE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (132.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.
0000042300
19964

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 032100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 032100UTC 27.0N 124.1E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 425NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 040900UTC 27.2N 125.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 042100UTC 27.6N 126.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 051800UTC 27.8N 128.7E 55NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 061800UTC 28.1N 131.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 071800UTC 29.6N 132.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 081800UTC 31.8N 132.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 032100
WARNING 032100.
WARNING VALID 042100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 960 HPA
AT 27.0N 124.1E EAST CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040900UTC AT 27.2N 125.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 042100UTC AT 27.6N 126.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 032100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230803191044
2023080318 06W KHANUN 031 01 335 02 SATL SYNP 020
T000 268N 1243E 070 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 105 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 271N 1249E 065 R064 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 220 SE QD 250 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 274N 1259E 060 R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 276N 1273E 055 R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 175 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 277N 1288E 055 R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 283N 1313E 060 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 297N 1325E 065 R064 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 316N 1330E 070 R064 050 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 031
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 26.8N 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8N 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 27.1N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 27.4N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 27.6N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 27.7N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 28.3N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 29.7N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 31.6N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 26.9N 124.4E.
03AUG23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM WEST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
31800Z IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS
29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080318 268N1243E 70
0623080318 268N1243E 70
0623080318 268N1243E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 26.8N 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8N 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 27.1N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 27.4N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 27.6N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 27.7N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 28.3N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 29.7N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 31.6N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 26.9N 124.4E.
03AUG23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM WEST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
031800Z IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS
29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 031946

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 031800 UTC, THE TYPHOON KHANUN (2306) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (26.9 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (124.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
BE SLOW-MOVING AT FIRST, THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT
4 KNOTS LATER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041800 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (27.5 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (125.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051800 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (27.8 N)
ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (128.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061800 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (28.2 N)
ONE THREE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (131.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 071800 UTC
TWO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (29.4 N)
ONE THREE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (132.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 081800 UTC
THREE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (31.1 N)
ONE THREE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (132.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.34 FOR TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 27.0N, 124.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF DRY AIR AND REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH DRY AIR AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 031800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 29
NAME 2306 KHANUN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 031800UTC 26.9N 124.2E
MOVEMENT NW 3KT
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 040600UTC 27.1N 124.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
24HR
POSITION 041800UTC 27.4N 125.9E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
36HR
POSITION 050600UTC 27.6N 127.2E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
48HR
POSITION 051800UTC 27.8N 128.7E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
72HR
POSITION 061800UTC 28.3N 131.3E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 071800UTC 29.6N 132.5E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
120HR
POSITION 081800UTC 31.4N 132.8E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031800UTC 27.0N 124.1E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 425NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 040600UTC 27.1N 125.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 041800UTC 27.4N 126.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 051800UTC 27.8N 128.7E 55NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 061800UTC 28.1N 131.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 071800UTC 29.6N 132.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 081800UTC 31.8N 132.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 031800
WARNING 031800.
WARNING VALID 041800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 960 HPA
AT 27.0N 124.1E EAST CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 27.1N 125.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 27.4N 126.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 27.8N 128.7E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 28.1N 131.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 29.6N 132.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 31.8N 132.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 031500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031500UTC 26.7N 124.3E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 425NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 040300UTC 27.0N 124.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 041500UTC 27.2N 125.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 051200UTC 27.7N 127.9E 55NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 061200UTC 28.0N 130.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 071200UTC 28.9N 132.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 081200UTC 30.4N 132.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 031500
WARNING 031500.
WARNING VALID 041500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 950 HPA
AT 26.7N 124.3E EAST CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040300UTC AT 27.0N 124.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041500UTC AT 27.2N 125.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 031500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230803132553
2023080312 06W KHANUN 030 01 140 01 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 266N 1244E 085 R064 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 065 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 175 NW QD
T012 268N 1246E 075 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 271N 1252E 065 R064 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 273N 1262E 060 R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 175 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 275N 1274E 060 R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 277N 1296E 065 R064 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 285N 1313E 070 R064 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 295N 1325E 075 R064 050 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 030
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 26.6N 124.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6N 124.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 26.8N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 27.1N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 27.3N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 27.5N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 27.7N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.5N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.5N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 26.6N 124.4E. 03AUG23.
TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
183 NM WEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 80312Z IS 952 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
0623080312 266N1244E 85
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 26.6N 124.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6N 124.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 26.8N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 27.1N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 27.3N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 27.5N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 27.7N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.5N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.5N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 26.6N 124.4E.
03AUG23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 183 NM WEST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031200Z IS 952 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 031346

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 031200 UTC, THE SEVERE TYPHOON KHANUN (2306) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (26.8
N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (124.4 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041200 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (27.2 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (125.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051200 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (27.7 N)
ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (128.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061200 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (28.1 N)
ONE THREE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (130.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 071200 UTC
TWO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (29.3 N)
ONE THREE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (132.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 081200 UTC
THREE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (31.1 N)
ONE THREE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (133.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.33 FOR TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 26.6N, 124.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
945HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW
DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 031200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 28
NAME 2306 KHANUN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 031200UTC 26.7N 124.3E
MOVEMENT N 1KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 040000UTC 27.0N 124.3E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
24HR
POSITION 041200UTC 27.2N 125.3E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
36HR
POSITION 050000UTC 27.5N 126.5E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
48HR
POSITION 051200UTC 27.8N 128.0E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 061200UTC 28.2N 130.7E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
96HR
POSITION 071200UTC 29.0N 132.1E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
120HR
POSITION 081200UTC 30.4N 132.8E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 26.6N 124.2E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 040000UTC 26.9N 124.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 041200UTC 27.2N 125.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 051200UTC 27.7N 127.9E 55NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 061200UTC 28.0N 130.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 071200UTC 28.9N 132.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 081200UTC 30.4N 132.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 031200
WARNING 031200.
WARNING VALID 041200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 945 HPA
AT 26.6N 124.2E EAST CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 26.9N 124.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 27.2N 125.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 27.7N 127.9E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 28.0N 130.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 28.9N 132.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 30.4N 132.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 031046

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 030900 UTC, THE SEVERE TYPHOON KHANUN (2306) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (26.8
N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (124.3 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (27.1 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (125.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050900 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (27.7 N)
ONE TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (127.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060900 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (28.0 N)
ONE THREE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (130.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070900 UTC
TWO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (29.1 N)
ONE THREE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (132.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080900 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (30.9 N)
ONE THREE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (133.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 030900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030900UTC 26.6N 124.2E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 032100UTC 26.8N 124.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
24HF 040900UTC 27.0N 125.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 050600UTC 27.6N 127.3E 55NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 060600UTC 27.9N 130.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 070600UTC 28.8N 132.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 080600UTC 30.0N 133.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 030900
WARNING 030900.
WARNING VALID 040900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 940 HPA
AT 26.6N 124.2E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 032100UTC AT 26.8N 124.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040900UTC AT 27.0N 125.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 030900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230803072009
2023080306 06W KHANUN 029 01 285 04 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 267N 1243E 090 R064 100 NE QD 075 SE QD 090 SW QD 085 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 180 SE QD 190 SW QD 200 NW QD
T012 269N 1242E 080 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 272N 1246E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 185 SE QD 190 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 274N 1255E 065 R064 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 190 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 277N 1267E 065 R064 015 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 281N 1291E 065 R064 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 170 NW QD
T096 287N 1308E 070 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD
T120 296N 1320E 070 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 029
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 26.7N 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7N 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 26.9N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 27.2N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 27.4N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 27.7N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 28.1N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 28.7N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 29.6N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 124.3E. 03AUG23.
TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
188 NM WEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030600Z IS 951 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 34 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080218 264N1251E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
0623080306 267N1243E 90
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 030746

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 030600 UTC, THE SEVERE TYPHOON KHANUN (2306) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (26.7
N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (124.2 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (27.1 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (124.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (27.7 N)
ONE TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (127.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060600 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (28.4 N)
ONE TWO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (129.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070600 UTC
TWO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (29.1 N)
ONE THREE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (131.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080600 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (30.7 N)
ONE THREE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (133.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 26.7N 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7N 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 26.9N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 27.2N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 27.4N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 27.7N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 28.1N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 28.7N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 29.6N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 124.3E. 03AUG23.
TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
188 NM WEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030600Z IS 951 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 34 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.32 FOR TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 26.6N, 124.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 030600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 27
NAME 2306 KHANUN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 030600UTC 26.7N 124.3E
MOVEMENT W 4KT
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 031800UTC 26.9N 124.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
24HR
POSITION 040600UTC 27.1N 124.5E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
36HR
POSITION 041800UTC 27.3N 125.6E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
48HR
POSITION 050600UTC 27.6N 127.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 060600UTC 28.1N 129.9E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
96HR
POSITION 070600UTC 29.0N 131.9E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
120HR
POSITION 080600UTC 30.0N 133.0E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 26.6N 124.2E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 031800UTC 26.9N 124.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
24HF 040600UTC 27.0N 124.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 050600UTC 27.6N 127.3E 55NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 060600UTC 27.9N 130.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 070600UTC 28.8N 132.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 080600UTC 30.0N 133.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 030600
WARNING 030600.
WARNING VALID 040600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 940 HPA
AT 26.6N 124.2E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 26.9N 124.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 27.0N 124.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 27.6N 127.3E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 27.9N 130.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 28.8N 132.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 30.0N 133.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 030446

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 030300 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON KHANUN (2306) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 935 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (26.7 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (124.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (27.1 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (124.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (27.6 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (126.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060300 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (28.3 N)
ONE TWO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (129.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070300 UTC
TWO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (29.0 N)
ONE THREE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (131.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080300 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (30.5 N)
ONE THREE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (133.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 030300
WARNING 030300.
WARNING VALID 040300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 940 HPA
AT 26.6N 124.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031500UTC AT 26.8N 124.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040300UTC AT 27.0N 124.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 030300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030300UTC 26.6N 124.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 325NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 031500UTC 26.8N 124.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
24HF 040300UTC 27.0N 124.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 050000UTC 27.5N 126.6E 55NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 060000UTC 28.0N 129.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE E 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 070000UTC 29.0N 131.9E 125NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 080000UTC 30.9N 133.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 030300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230803020411
2023080300 06W KHANUN 028 01 290 03 SATL RADR 020
T000 266N 1247E 090 R064 100 NE QD 075 SE QD 090 SW QD 085 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 180 SE QD 190 SW QD 200 NW QD
T012 268N 1243E 080 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 190 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 271N 1244E 070 R064 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 273N 1251E 065 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 276N 1263E 060 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 220 SE QD 190 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 279N 1288E 060 R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 210 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 285N 1308E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 180 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 294N 1319E 065 R064 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 028
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 26.6N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6N 124.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 26.8N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 27.1N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 27.3N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 27.6N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 27.9N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 28.5N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.4N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 26.6N 124.6E.
03AUG23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM WEST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030000Z IS 951 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z,
031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.
//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 265N1250E 100
0623080218 265N1250E 100
0623080218 265N1250E 100
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
0623080300 266N1247E 90
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 26.6N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6N 124.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 26.8N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 27.1N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 27.3N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 27.6N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 27.9N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 28.5N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.4N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 26.6N 124.6E.
03AUG23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM WEST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030000Z IS 951 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.31 FOR TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 26.6N, 124.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 030146

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 030000 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON KHANUN (2306) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 935 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (26.6 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (124.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (27.0 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (124.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (27.5 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (126.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060000 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (28.2 N)
ONE TWO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (129.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070000 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (28.9 N)
ONE THREE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (131.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080000 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (30.3 N)
ONE THREE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (133.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030000UTC 26.6N 124.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 325NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 031200UTC 26.8N 124.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
24HF 040000UTC 26.9N 124.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 050000UTC 27.5N 126.6E 55NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 060000UTC 28.0N 129.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE E 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 070000UTC 29.0N 131.9E 125NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 080000UTC 30.9N 133.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 030000
WARNING 030000.
WARNING VALID 040000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 940 HPA
AT 26.6N 124.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 26.8N 124.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 26.9N 124.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 27.5N 126.6E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 28.0N 129.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 29.0N 131.9E WITH 125 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 30.9N 133.5E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 022246

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 022100 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON KHANUN (2306) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 935 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (26.5 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (124.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC
TWO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (26.9 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (124.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 042100 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (27.4 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (126.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 052100 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (28.0 N)
ONE TWO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (128.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 062100 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (28.8 N)
ONE THREE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (131.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 072100 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (30.1 N)
ONE THREE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (132.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 022100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 022100UTC 26.5N 124.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 325NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 030900UTC 26.8N 124.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 032100UTC 26.9N 124.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 041800UTC 27.2N 125.7E 55NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 051800UTC 28.0N 128.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 061800UTC 28.7N 130.7E 125NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 071800UTC 30.1N 132.6E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 022100
WARNING 022100.
WARNING VALID 032100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 935 HPA
AT 26.5N 124.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 26.8N 124.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 032100UTC AT 26.9N 124.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 022100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230802203035
2023080218 06W KHANUN 027 01 295 07 SATL RADR 020
T000 265N 1250E 100 R064 100 NE QD 075 SE QD 090 SW QD 085 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 180 SE QD 190 SW QD 200 NW QD
T012 268N 1243E 090 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 270N 1241E 080 R064 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 272N 1246E 070 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 274N 1255E 065 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 220 SE QD 190 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 278N 1280E 060 R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 210 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 285N 1301E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 180 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 295N 1319E 065 R064 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 027
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 26.5N 125.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.5N 125.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 26.8N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 27.0N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 27.2N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 27.4N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 27.8N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 28.5N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 29.5N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 26.6N 124.8E.
02AUG23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM WEST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021800Z IS 943 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z,
030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.
//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080206 261N1262E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080212 262N1257E 100
0623080218 265N1250E 100
0623080218 265N1250E 100
0623080218 265N1250E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 26.5N 125.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.5N 125.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 26.8N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 27.0N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 27.2N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 27.4N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 27.8N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 28.5N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 29.5N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 26.6N 124.8E.
02AUG23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM WEST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021800Z IS 943 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.30 FOR TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 26.4N, 125.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 90KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 021946

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

SEVERE TYPHOON KHANUN (2306) HAS ENTERED THE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY OF THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY.

AT 021800 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON KHANUN (2306) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 935 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (26.5 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (124.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031800 UTC
TWO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (26.8 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (123.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041800 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (27.3 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (125.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051800 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (28.1 N)
ONE TWO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (128.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061800 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (28.6 N)
ONE THREE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (130.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 071800 UTC
TWO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (29.9 N)
ONE THREE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (132.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 26.4N 125.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 325NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 030600UTC 26.8N 124.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 031800UTC 26.9N 123.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 041800UTC 27.2N 125.7E 55NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 051800UTC 28.0N 128.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 061800UTC 28.7N 130.7E 125NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 071800UTC 30.1N 132.6E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 021800
WARNING 021800.
WARNING VALID 031800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 935 HPA
AT 26.4N 125.0E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 26.8N 124.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 26.9N 123.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 27.2N 125.7E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 28.0N 128.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 28.7N 130.7E WITH 125 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 30.1N 132.6E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 021500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021500UTC 26.2N 125.3E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 325NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 030300UTC 26.6N 124.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 031500UTC 26.7N 123.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 041200UTC 26.9N 124.5E 55NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 051200UTC 28.0N 127.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 061200UTC 28.6N 129.7E 125NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 071200UTC 29.8N 131.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 021500
WARNING 021500.
WARNING VALID 031500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 935 HPA
AT 26.2N 125.3E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030300UTC AT 26.6N 124.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031500UTC AT 26.7N 123.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 26.2N, 125.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 90KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY
AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021200UTC 26.2N 125.6E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 030000UTC 26.5N 124.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 031200UTC 26.7N 123.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 041200UTC 26.9N 124.5E 55NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 051200UTC 28.0N 127.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 061200UTC 28.6N 129.7E 125NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 071200UTC 29.8N 131.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 021200
WARNING 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 935 HPA
AT 26.2N 125.6E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 26.5N 124.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 26.7N 123.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 26.9N 124.5E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 28.0N 127.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 28.6N 129.7E WITH 125 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 29.8N 131.5E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 020900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020900UTC 26.1N 125.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 022100UTC 26.5N 124.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 030900UTC 26.7N 123.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 040600UTC 26.9N 124.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 050600UTC 28.0N 126.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 060600UTC 28.4N 129.0E 125NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
117HF 070600UTC 29.3N 130.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 020900
WARNING 020900.
WARNING VALID 030900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 935 HPA
AT 26.1N 125.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 022100UTC AT 26.5N 124.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 26.7N 123.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 26.1N, 126.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 90KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT36. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN TURN SHARPLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020600UTC 26.1N 126.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 021800UTC 26.4N 125.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 030600UTC 26.7N 124.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 040600UTC 26.9N 124.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 050600UTC 28.0N 126.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 060600UTC 28.4N 129.0E 125NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 070600UTC 29.3N 130.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 020600
WARNING 020600.
WARNING VALID 030600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 935 HPA
AT 26.1N 126.1E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 26.4N 125.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 26.7N 124.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 26.9N 124.4E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 28.0N 126.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 28.4N 129.0E WITH 125 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 29.3N 130.8E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 020300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020300UTC 26.1N 126.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 021500UTC 26.2N 125.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 030300UTC 26.6N 124.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 040000UTC 26.8N 123.3E 55NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 050000UTC 27.7N 124.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 060000UTC 28.2N 126.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
117HF 070000UTC 28.7N 128.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 020300
WARNING 020300.
WARNING VALID 030300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 935 HPA
AT 26.1N 126.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 26.2N 125.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030300UTC AT 26.6N 124.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 020300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230802013104
2023080200 06W KHANUN 024 01 300 04 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 258N 1270E 100 R064 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 262N 1262E 095 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 200 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 264N 1251E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 230 SE QD 250 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 266N 1243E 080 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 250 SE QD 280 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 268N 1244E 070 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 260 SE QD 280 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 272N 1260E 065 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 220 SE QD 220 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 279N 1279E 060 R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 286N 1300E 060 R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 024
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 25.8N 127.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8N 127.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.2N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.4N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 26.6N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 26.8N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 27.2N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 27.9N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 28.6N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 126.8E.
02AUG23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020000Z IS 947 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 36 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080118 256N1274E 105
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
0623080200 258N1270E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 25.8N 127.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8N 127.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.2N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.4N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 26.6N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 26.8N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 27.2N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 27.9N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 28.6N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 126.8E.
02AUG23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020000Z IS
947 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 36 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 25.7N, 126.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
930HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT36.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN TURN SHARPLY TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT60. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 25.7N 126.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 021200UTC 26.2N 125.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 030000UTC 26.6N 124.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 040000UTC 26.8N 123.3E 55NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 050000UTC 27.7N 124.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 060000UTC 28.2N 126.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 070000UTC 28.7N 128.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 020000
WARNING 020000.
WARNING VALID 030000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 930 HPA
AT 25.7N 126.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 26.2N 125.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 26.6N 124.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 26.8N 123.3E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 27.7N 124.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 28.2N 126.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 28.7N 128.0E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 012100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 012100UTC 25.8N 127.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 020900UTC 26.0N 125.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 022100UTC 26.3N 124.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 031800UTC 26.5N 123.2E 55NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 041800UTC 27.2N 124.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 051800UTC 27.9N 126.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
117HF 061800UTC 28.1N 127.4E 180NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 012100
WARNING 012100.
WARNING VALID 022100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 930 HPA
AT 25.8N 127.1E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 26.0N 125.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 022100UTC AT 26.3N 124.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 012100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230801194502
2023080118 06W KHANUN 023 01 300 06 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 256N 1274E 110 R064 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 261N 1262E 105 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 264N 1251E 100 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 210 SE QD 230 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 265N 1244E 095 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 240 SE QD 270 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 268N 1242E 080 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 260 SE QD 280 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 272N 1252E 065 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 230 SE QD 260 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 278N 1272E 055 R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 284N 1293E 055 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 190 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 023
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 25.6N 127.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 127.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 26.1N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.4N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 26.5N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 26.8N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 27.2N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 27.8N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 28.4N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 25.7N 127.1E.
01AUG23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 58 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
011800Z IS 941 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS
41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.
//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080112 253N1280E 115
0623080118 256N1274E 110
0623080118 256N1274E 110
0623080118 256N1274E 110
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 25.6N 127.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 127.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 26.1N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.4N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 26.5N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 26.8N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 27.2N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 27.8N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 28.4N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 25.7N 127.1E.
01AUG23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 58 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011800Z IS
941 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 41 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 25.5N, 127.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
930HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 25.5N 127.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 020600UTC 25.9N 126.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 021800UTC 26.3N 124.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 031800UTC 26.5N 123.2E 55NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 041800UTC 27.2N 124.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 051800UTC 27.9N 126.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 061800UTC 28.1N 127.4E 180NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 011800
WARNING 011800.
WARNING VALID 021800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 930 HPA
AT 25.5N 127.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 25.9N 126.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 26.3N 124.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 26.5N 123.2E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 27.2N 124.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 27.9N 126.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 28.1N 127.4E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 011500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011500UTC 25.3N 127.6E GOOD
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 020300UTC 25.8N 126.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 021500UTC 26.1N 124.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 031200UTC 26.5N 123.3E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 041200UTC 26.8N 123.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 051200UTC 27.9N 124.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
117HF 061200UTC 28.1N 125.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 011500
WARNING 011500.
WARNING VALID 021500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 930 HPA
AT 25.3N 127.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 25.8N 126.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 26.1N 124.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 011500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230801124549
2023080112 06W KHANUN 022 01 295 08 SATL RADR SYNP 010
T000 253N 1279E 115 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 258N 1266E 110 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 263N 1255E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 200 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 265N 1245E 095 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 230 SE QD 260 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 267N 1239E 090 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 250 SE QD 270 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 272N 1244E 070 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 260 SE QD 280 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 278N 1254E 060 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 283N 1265E 050 R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 022
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 25.3N 127.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3N 127.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 25.8N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.3N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.5N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 26.7N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 27.2N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 27.8N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.3N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 127.6E.
01AUG23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011200Z IS 932 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 47 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080112 253N1279E 115
0623080112 253N1279E 115
0623080112 253N1279E 115
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 25.3N 127.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3N 127.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 25.8N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.3N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.5N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 26.7N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 27.2N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 27.8N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.3N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 127.6E.
01AUG23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011200Z IS 932 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 47 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 25.3N, 128.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
930HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 011200
WARNING 011200.
WARNING VALID 021200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 930 HPA
AT 25.3N 128.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 25.7N 126.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 26.0N 125.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 26.5N 123.3E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 26.8N 123.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 27.9N 124.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 28.1N 125.5E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 25.3N 128.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 020000UTC 25.7N 126.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 021200UTC 26.0N 125.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 031200UTC 26.5N 123.3E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 041200UTC 26.8N 123.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 051200UTC 27.9N 124.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 061200UTC 28.1N 125.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 010900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010900UTC 25.2N 128.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 012100UTC 25.5N 127.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 020900UTC 26.0N 125.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 030600UTC 26.5N 123.9E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 040600UTC 26.7N 123.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 050600UTC 27.8N 125.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
117HF 060600UTC 28.3N 126.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 010900
WARNING 010900.
WARNING VALID 020900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 930 HPA
AT 25.2N 128.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 012100UTC AT 25.5N 127.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 26.0N 125.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 010900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230801063433
2023080106 06W KHANUN 021 01 300 08 SATL SYNP 015
T000 250N 1287E 120 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 256N 1274E 115 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 180 SE QD 180 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 261N 1261E 110 R064 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 265N 1252E 105 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 210 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 268N 1247E 095 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 230 SE QD 260 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 272N 1246E 070 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 250 SE QD 270 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 278N 1257E 060 R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 283N 1271E 050 R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 021
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 25.0N 128.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 128.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 25.6N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 26.1N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.5N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 26.8N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 27.2N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 27.8N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 28.3N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 25.2N 128.4E.
01AUG23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 102 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 010600Z IS 928 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 50 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
0623080106 250N1287E 120
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 25.0N 128.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 128.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 25.6N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 26.1N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.5N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 26.8N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 27.2N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 27.8N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 28.3N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 25.2N 128.4E.
01AUG23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 102 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 010600Z
IS 928 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 50 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 25.0N, 128.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
930HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010600UTC 25.0N 128.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 011800UTC 25.4N 127.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 020600UTC 25.9N 126.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 030600UTC 26.5N 123.9E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 040600UTC 26.7N 123.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 050600UTC 27.8N 125.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 060600UTC 28.3N 126.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 010600
WARNING 010600.
WARNING VALID 020600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 930 HPA
AT 25.0N 128.7E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 25.4N 127.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 25.9N 126.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 26.5N 123.9E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 26.7N 123.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 27.8N 125.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 28.3N 126.1E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 010300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010300UTC 24.8N 129.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
12HF 011500UTC 25.3N 127.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 020300UTC 26.0N 126.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 030000UTC 26.6N 124.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 040000UTC 26.8N 122.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 050000UTC 27.7N 123.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 060000UTC 28.3N 124.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 010300
WARNING 010300.
WARNING VALID 020300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 930 HPA
AT 24.8N 129.1E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 25.3N 127.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 26.0N 126.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 010300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230801014825
2023080100 06W KHANUN 020 01 300 10 SATL RADR 030
T000 246N 1294E 120 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 230 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 253N 1281E 120 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 259N 1267E 115 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 263N 1256E 110 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 266N 1248E 100 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 230 SE QD 250 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 270N 1243E 075 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 280 SE QD 270 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 276N 1254E 060 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 240 SE QD 200 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 281N 1268E 055 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 170 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 020
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 24.6N 129.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 129.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 25.3N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 25.9N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.3N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.6N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 27.0N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 27.6N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 28.1N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 129.1E.
01AUG23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 143 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 010000Z IS 930 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 48 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
0623080100 246N1294E 120
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 24.6N 129.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 129.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 25.3N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 25.9N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.3N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.6N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 27.0N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 27.6N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 28.1N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 129.1E.
01AUG23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 143 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 010000Z IS
930 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 48 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 24.6N, 129.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 90KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010000UTC 24.6N 129.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
12HF 011200UTC 25.2N 127.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 020000UTC 25.8N 126.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 030000UTC 26.6N 124.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 040000UTC 26.8N 122.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 050000UTC 27.7N 123.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 060000UTC 28.3N 124.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 010000
WARNING 010000.
WARNING VALID 020000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 935 HPA
AT 24.6N 129.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 25.2N 127.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 25.8N 126.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 26.6N 124.4E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 26.8N 122.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 27.7N 123.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 28.3N 124.5E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 312100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 312100UTC 24.4N 129.9E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
12HF 010900UTC 25.0N 128.3E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 012100UTC 25.5N 127.1E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 021800UTC 26.4N 125.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 031800UTC 26.9N 123.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 041800UTC 27.7N 124.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 051800UTC 28.5N 124.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 312100
WARNING 312100.
WARNING VALID 012100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 935 HPA
AT 24.4N 129.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010900UTC AT 25.0N 128.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 012100UTC AT 25.5N 127.1E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 312100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230731194716
2023073118 06W KHANUN 019 01 315 09 SATL RADR 030
T000 241N 1303E 115 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 230 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 250N 1289E 120 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 256N 1277E 115 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 261N 1265E 110 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 264N 1255E 100 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 220 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 268N 1248E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 260 SE QD 260 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 275N 1258E 065 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 240 SE QD 230 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 279N 1271E 065 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 019
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 24.1N 130.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.1N 130.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.0N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 25.6N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 26.1N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.4N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 26.8N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 27.5N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 27.9N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 129.9E.
31JUL23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 311800Z IS 935 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 45 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.
//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073106 228N1315E 110
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073112 235N1310E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
0623073118 241N1303E 115
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 24.1N 130.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.1N 130.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.0N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 25.6N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 26.1N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.4N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 26.8N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 27.5N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 27.9N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 129.9E.
31JUL23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 311800Z
IS 935 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 45 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 311800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 24.1N, 130.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 90KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT96.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 311800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311800UTC 24.1N 130.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
12HF 010600UTC 24.9N 128.6E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 011800UTC 25.4N 127.4E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 021800UTC 26.4N 125.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 031800UTC 26.9N 123.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 041800UTC 27.7N 124.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 051800UTC 28.5N 124.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 311800
WARNING 311800.
WARNING VALID 011800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 935 HPA
AT 24.1N 130.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 24.9N 128.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 25.4N 127.4E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 26.4N 125.1E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 26.9N 123.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 27.7N 124.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 28.5N 124.9E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 311500
WARNING 311500.
WARNING VALID 011500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 945 HPA
AT 23.7N 130.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010300UTC AT 24.7N 128.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 25.1N 127.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 311500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311500UTC 23.7N 130.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
12HF 010300UTC 24.7N 128.8E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 011500UTC 25.1N 127.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 021200UTC 26.0N 125.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 031200UTC 26.8N 124.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 041200UTC 27.4N 124.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 051200UTC 28.6N 125.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 311500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230731131405
2023073112 06W KHANUN 018 01 325 08 SATL 020
T000 234N 1311E 115 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 230 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 244N 1297E 120 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 251N 1283E 120 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 256N 1272E 115 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 261N 1264E 105 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 268N 1255E 085 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 240 SE QD 240 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 276N 1257E 070 R064 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 220 SE QD 230 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 283N 1265E 065 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 200 SE QD 210 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 018
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 23.4N 131.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 131.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.4N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 25.1N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 25.6N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.1N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 26.8N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 27.6N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 28.3N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 130.7E.
31JUL23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 311200Z
IS 937 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 48
FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1316E 115
0623073106 228N1316E 115
0623073106 228N1316E 115
0623073112 234N1311E 115
0623073112 234N1311E 115
0623073112 234N1311E 115
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 23.4N 131.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 131.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.4N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 25.1N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 25.6N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.1N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 26.8N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 27.6N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 28.3N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 130.7E.
31JUL23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 311200Z
IS 937 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 48
FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 311200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 23.4N, 131.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
945HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 311200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311200UTC 23.4N 131.1E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
12HF 010000UTC 24.6N 129.2E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 011200UTC 24.9N 127.7E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 021200UTC 26.0N 125.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 031200UTC 26.8N 124.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 041200UTC 27.4N 124.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 051200UTC 28.6N 125.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 311200
WARNING 311200.
WARNING VALID 011200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 945 HPA
AT 23.4N 131.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 24.6N 129.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 24.9N 127.7E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 26.0N 125.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 26.8N 124.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 27.4N 124.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 28.6N 125.2E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 310900
WARNING 310900.
WARNING VALID 010900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 945 HPA
AT 23.0N 131.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 312100UTC AT 24.2N 129.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010900UTC AT 24.9N 128.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 310900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310900UTC 23.0N 131.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
12HF 312100UTC 24.2N 129.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 010900UTC 24.9N 128.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 020600UTC 25.7N 126.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 030600UTC 26.3N 124.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 040600UTC 27.2N 124.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 050600UTC 28.5N 125.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 22.8N 131.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 131.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 24.0N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 24.9N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 25.5N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.9N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 26.6N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 27.4N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 28.1N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 131.2E.
31JUL23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
310600Z IS 937 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z
IS 48 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 310900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230731071254
2023073106 06W KHANUN 017 01 335 09 SATL 020
T000 228N 1316E 115 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 230 SE QD 135 SW QD 220 NW QD
T012 240N 1302E 120 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 210 NW QD
T024 249N 1287E 125 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 210 NW QD
T036 255N 1275E 120 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 200 NW QD
T048 259N 1265E 115 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 266N 1252E 100 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 230 SE QD 210 SW QD 180 NW QD
T096 274N 1253E 085 R064 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 240 SE QD 200 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 281N 1261E 070 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 200 SE QD 150 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 017
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 22.8N 131.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 131.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 24.0N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 24.9N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 25.5N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.9N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 26.6N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 27.4N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 28.1N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 131.2E.
31JUL23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
310600Z IS 937 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z
IS 48 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073100 220N1320E 110
0623073106 228N1316E 115
0623073106 228N1316E 115
0623073106 228N1316E 115
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 310600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 22.8N, 131.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
945HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 310600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310600UTC 22.8N 131.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
12HF 311800UTC 24.1N 130.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 010600UTC 24.7N 128.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 020600UTC 25.7N 126.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 030600UTC 26.3N 124.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 040600UTC 27.2N 124.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 050600UTC 28.5N 125.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 310600
WARNING 310600.
WARNING VALID 010600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 945 HPA
AT 22.8N 131.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 24.1N 130.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 24.7N 128.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 25.7N 126.1E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 26.3N 124.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 27.2N 124.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 28.5N 125.8E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 310300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310300UTC 22.4N 131.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
12HF 311500UTC 23.8N 130.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 010300UTC 24.6N 128.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 020000UTC 25.5N 126.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 030000UTC 26.1N 125.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 040000UTC 27.0N 124.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 050000UTC 28.3N 126.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 310300
WARNING 310300.
WARNING VALID 010300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 950 HPA
AT 22.4N 131.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311500UTC AT 23.8N 130.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010300UTC AT 24.6N 128.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 310300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230731005322
2023073100 06W KHANUN 016 01 350 09 SATL SYNP 010
T000 220N 1320E 105 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 230 SE QD 135 SW QD 220 NW QD
T012 234N 1308E 115 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 200 NW QD
T024 245N 1292E 120 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 200 NW QD
T036 252N 1278E 125 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 256N 1267E 115 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 190 NW QD
T072 263N 1249E 100 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 230 SE QD 240 SW QD 180 NW QD
T096 271N 1244E 080 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 250 SE QD 260 SW QD 160 NW QD
T120 279N 1248E 065 R064 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 210 SE QD 210 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 016
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 22.0N 132.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 132.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 23.4N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.5N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 25.2N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 25.6N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.3N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 27.1N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 27.9N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 131.7E.
31JUL23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 354 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 310000Z IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z
IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND
010300Z.//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 105
0623073100 220N1320E 105
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 22.0N 132.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 132.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 23.4N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.5N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 25.2N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 25.6N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.3N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 27.1N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 27.9N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 131.7E.
31JUL23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 354 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 310000Z IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z
IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND
010300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 310000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 22.0N, 132.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
960HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 310000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310000UTC 22.0N 132.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
12HF 311200UTC 23.5N 130.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 010000UTC 24.5N 129.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 020000UTC 25.5N 126.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 030000UTC 26.1N 125.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 040000UTC 27.0N 124.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 050000UTC 28.3N 126.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 310000
WARNING 310000.
WARNING VALID 010000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 960 HPA
AT 22.0N 132.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 23.5N 130.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 24.5N 129.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 25.5N 126.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 26.1N 125.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 27.0N 124.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 28.3N 126.2E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 302100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 302100UTC 21.5N 132.1E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
12HF 310900UTC 23.5N 131.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
24HF 312100UTC 24.4N 129.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 011800UTC 25.8N 127.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 021800UTC 26.7N 125.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 031800UTC 28.1N 124.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 041800UTC 29.1N 124.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 302100
WARNING 302100.
WARNING VALID 312100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 960 HPA
AT 21.5N 132.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310900UTC AT 23.5N 131.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 312100UTC AT 24.4N 129.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 302100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230730200643
2023073018 06W KHANUN 015 01 345 07 SATL SYNP 010
T000 211N 1322E 105 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 230 SE QD 135 SW QD 220 NW QD
T012 227N 1313E 115 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 200 NW QD
T024 241N 1298E 120 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 210 NW QD
T036 251N 1283E 125 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 210 NW QD
T048 257N 1269E 115 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 266N 1249E 100 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 274N 1238E 080 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 210 SW QD 160 NW QD
T120 282N 1236E 065 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 220 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 015
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 21.1N 132.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 132.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 22.7N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 24.1N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.1N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 25.7N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.6N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 27.4N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 28.2N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 21.5N 132.0E.
30JUL23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 404 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 73018Z IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z,
310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
0623073018 211N1322E 105
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 21.1N 132.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 132.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 22.7N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 24.1N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.1N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 25.7N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.6N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 27.4N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 28.2N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 21.5N 132.0E.
30JUL23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 404 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 301800Z IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z,
310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 21.1N, 132.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
960HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. IT HAS ALSO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL
FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN
TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP
AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP
AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301800UTC 21.1N 132.1E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
12HF 310600UTC 23.3N 131.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
24HF 311800UTC 24.6N 129.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 011800UTC 25.8N 127.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 021800UTC 26.7N 125.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 031800UTC 28.1N 124.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 041800UTC 29.1N 124.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 301800
WARNING 301800.
WARNING VALID 311800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 960 HPA
AT 21.1N 132.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 23.3N 131.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 24.6N 129.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 25.8N 127.3E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 26.7N 125.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 28.1N 124.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 29.1N 124.3E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 301500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301500UTC 20.8N 132.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 310300UTC 23.1N 131.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 311500UTC 24.7N 129.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 011200UTC 26.0N 126.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 021200UTC 26.9N 124.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 031200UTC 27.9N 122.7E 175NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 041200UTC 28.6N 121.7E 215NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 301500
WARNING 301500.
WARNING VALID 311500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) 970 HPA
AT 20.8N 132.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310300UTC AT 23.1N 131.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311500UTC AT 24.7N 129.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 20.3N, 132.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
APPEARANCE OF AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL
FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP
AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND
LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 301500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230730134217
2023073012 06W KHANUN 014 01 340 08 SATL 020
T000 204N 1324E 090 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 220 SE QD 125 SW QD 210 NW QD
T012 224N 1315E 100 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 180 SE QD 120 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 242N 1298E 110 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 210 NW QD
T036 255N 1278E 115 R064 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 210 NW QD
T048 262N 1257E 110 R064 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 190 NW QD
T072 272N 1232E 100 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 180 NW QD
T096 280N 1213E 080 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 200 SE QD 210 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 291N 1196E 055 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 014
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 20.4N 132.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 132.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 22.4N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 24.2N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 25.5N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 26.2N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 27.2N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.0N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 29.1N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 132.2E.
30JUL23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
301200Z IS 962 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z
IS 31 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073006 196N1327E 70
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
0623073012 204N1324E 90
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 20.4N 132.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 132.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 22.4N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 24.2N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 25.5N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 26.2N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 27.2N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.0N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 29.1N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 132.2E.
30JUL23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
301200Z IS 962 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z
IS 31 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2306 KHANUN (2306) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 20.3N 132.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 310000UTC 22.7N 131.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 311200UTC 24.3N 130.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 011200UTC 26.0N 126.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 021200UTC 26.9N 124.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 031200UTC 27.9N 122.7E 175NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 041200UTC 28.6N 121.7E 215NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 301200
WARNING 301200.
WARNING VALID 311200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2306 KHANUN (2306) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970
HPA
AT 20.3N 132.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 22.7N 131.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 24.3N 130.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 26.0N 126.7E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 26.9N 124.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 27.9N 122.7E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 28.6N 121.7E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 300900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300900UTC 20.0N 132.6E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 302100UTC 22.3N 132.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 310900UTC 24.1N 130.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 010600UTC 26.3N 126.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 020600UTC 27.4N 123.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 030600UTC 28.7N 121.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 040600UTC 29.8N 119.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 300900
WARNING 300900.
WARNING VALID 310900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 980 HPA
AT 20.0N 132.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 302100UTC AT 22.3N 132.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310900UTC AT 24.1N 130.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 300900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230730070607
2023073006 06W KHANUN 013 01 355 08 SATL 030
T000 195N 1327E 070 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 220 SE QD 125 SW QD 210 NW QD
T012 215N 1319E 080 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 180 SE QD 110 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 234N 1306E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 170 SE QD 110 SW QD 210 NW QD
T036 250N 1286E 100 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 230 NW QD
T048 261N 1264E 105 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 220 NW QD
T072 274N 1231E 095 R064 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 200 NW QD
T096 287N 1201E 070 R064 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 302N 1175E 045
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 013
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 013
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 06W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 19.5N 132.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 132.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.5N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 23.4N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 25.0N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 26.1N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 27.4N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 28.7N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 30.2N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 132.5E.
30JUL23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 499 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 300600Z IS 977
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 29 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623072918 178N1331E 55
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073000 187N1328E 60
0623073006 195N1327E 70
0623073006 195N1327E 70
0623073006 195N1327E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 013
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 06W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 19.5N 132.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 132.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.5N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 23.4N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 25.0N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 26.1N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 27.4N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 28.7N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 30.2N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 132.5E.
30JUL23. TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 499 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 300600Z IS 977
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 29 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 19.6N, 132.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300600UTC 19.6N 132.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 301800UTC 22.0N 132.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 310600UTC 24.0N 130.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 010600UTC 26.3N 126.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 020600UTC 27.4N 123.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 030600UTC 28.7N 121.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 040600UTC 29.8N 119.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 300600
WARNING 300600.
WARNING VALID 310600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 980 HPA
AT 19.6N 132.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 22.0N 132.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 24.0N 130.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 26.3N 126.8E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 27.4N 123.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 28.7N 121.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 29.8N 119.9E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 300300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300300UTC 18.9N 132.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 301500UTC 21.4N 132.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 310300UTC 23.9N 131.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 010000UTC 26.5N 127.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 020000UTC 27.7N 123.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 030000UTC 29.1N 120.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 040000UTC 30.4N 118.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 300300
WARNING 300300.
WARNING VALID 310300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 985 HPA
AT 18.9N 132.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 21.4N 132.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310300UTC AT 23.9N 131.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 300300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230730011032
2023073000 06W KHANUN 012 01 350 09 SATL SYNP 025
T000 185N 1328E 060 R050 095 NE QD 130 SE QD 150 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 170 SE QD 240 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 206N 1320E 070 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 226N 1308E 080 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 243N 1293E 085 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 180 NW QD
T048 255N 1271E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 180 NW QD
T072 271N 1236E 095 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 160 SE QD 200 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 286N 1200E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 304N 1185E 040 R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 18.5N 132.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 132.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.6N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 22.6N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 24.3N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 25.5N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 27.1N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 28.6N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 30.4N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 132.6E.
30JUL23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 554 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
300000Z IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 176N1330E 55
0623072918 176N1330E 55
0623073000 185N1328E 60
0623073000 185N1328E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 18.5N 132.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 132.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.6N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 22.6N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 24.3N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 25.5N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 27.1N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 28.6N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 30.4N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 132.6E.
30JUL23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 554 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
300000Z IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 18.4N, 132.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 18.4N 132.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 301200UTC 21.0N 132.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 310000UTC 23.5N 131.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 010000UTC 26.5N 127.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 020000UTC 27.7N 123.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 030000UTC 29.1N 120.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 040000UTC 30.4N 118.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 300000
WARNING 300000.
WARNING VALID 310000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 985 HPA
AT 18.4N 132.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 21.0N 132.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 23.5N 131.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 26.5N 127.2E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 27.7N 123.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 29.1N 120.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 30.4N 118.3E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 292100
WARNING 292100.
WARNING VALID 302100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 985 HPA
AT 18.2N 132.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 20.8N 132.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 302100UTC AT 23.0N 131.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 292100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 292100UTC 18.2N 132.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 300900UTC 20.8N 132.7E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 302100UTC 23.0N 131.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 311800UTC 26.0N 128.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 011800UTC 27.5N 124.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 021800UTC 29.1N 120.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 031800UTC 30.5N 118.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 292100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230729193716
2023072918 06W KHANUN 011 01 340 08 SATL SYNP 025
T000 176N 1330E 055 R050 095 NE QD 110 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 135 SE QD 230 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 196N 1323E 065 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 180 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 217N 1313E 075 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 236N 1300E 085 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 251N 1279E 090 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 271N 1241E 095 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 160 SE QD 180 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 283N 1209E 065 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 302N 1177E 040 R034 140 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 17.6N 133.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 133.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.6N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.7N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 23.6N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 25.1N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 27.1N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 28.3N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 30.2N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 132.8E.
29JUL23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 592 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 291800Z IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291800Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 156N1339E 40
0623072906 161N1336E 45
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072912 168N1333E 50
0623072918 176N1330E 55
0623072918 176N1330E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 17.6N 133.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 133.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.6N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.7N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 23.6N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 25.1N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 27.1N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 28.3N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 30.2N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 132.8E.
29JUL23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 592 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 291800Z IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND
302100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 291800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR STS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 17.6N, 133.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE
NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 291800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2306 KHANUN (2306) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291800UTC 17.6N 133.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 300600UTC 20.3N 132.8E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 301800UTC 22.4N 131.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 311800UTC 26.0N 128.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 011800UTC 27.5N 124.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 021800UTC 29.1N 120.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 031800UTC 30.5N 118.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 291800
WARNING 291800.
WARNING VALID 301800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
985 HPA
AT 17.6N 133.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 20.3N 132.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 22.4N 131.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 26.0N 128.1E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 27.5N 124.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 29.1N 120.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 30.5N 118.2E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 291500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291500UTC 17.3N 133.6E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 300300UTC 19.8N 132.9E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 301500UTC 22.0N 131.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 311200UTC 25.2N 129.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 011200UTC 27.1N 124.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 021200UTC 28.2N 121.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
117HF 031200UTC 29.5N 118.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 291500
WARNING 291500.
WARNING VALID 301500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 990 HPA
AT 17.3N 133.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300300UTC AT 19.8N 132.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 22.0N 131.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 291500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230729133059
2023072912 06W KHANUN 010 01 335 09 SATL 045
T000 170N 1329E 050 R050 095 NE QD 120 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 230 SE QD 265 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 189N 1323E 060 R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 230 SE QD 180 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 210N 1315E 070 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 230N 1303E 080 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 247N 1286E 085 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 270N 1246E 095 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD 190 SW QD 170 NW QD
T096 286N 1211E 065 R064 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 304N 1182E 045
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 17.0N 132.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 132.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 18.9N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.0N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 23.0N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 24.7N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 27.0N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 28.6N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 30.4N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 132.8E.
29JUL23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 637
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
291200Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z
IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 157N1337E 40
0623072906 162N1333E 45
0623072912 170N1329E 50
0623072912 170N1329E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 17.0N 132.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 132.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 18.9N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.0N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 23.0N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 24.7N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 27.0N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 28.6N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 30.4N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 132.8E.
29JUL23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 637
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
291200Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z
IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 16.8N, 133.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY
UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291200UTC 16.8N 133.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 400NM EAST 350NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 300000UTC 19.3N 132.9E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 301200UTC 21.5N 132.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 311200UTC 25.2N 129.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 011200UTC 27.1N 124.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 021200UTC 28.2N 121.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
120HF 031200UTC 29.5N 118.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 291200
WARNING 291200.
WARNING VALID 301200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 990 HPA
AT 16.8N 133.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 19.3N 132.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 21.5N 132.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 25.2N 129.2E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 27.1N 124.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 28.2N 121.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 29.5N 118.5E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 290900
WARNING 290900.
WARNING VALID 300900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 994 HPA
AT 16.7N 133.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 292100UTC AT 18.7N 133.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 21.1N 132.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 290900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290900UTC 16.7N 133.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 400NM SOUTHEAST 350NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 292100UTC 18.7N 133.2E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 300900UTC 21.1N 132.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 310600UTC 24.5N 130.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 010600UTC 26.7N 125.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 020600UTC 28.1N 122.0E 125NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 030600UTC 29.7N 119.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 290900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230729074939
2023072906 06W KHANUN 009A 01 315 08 SATL 045
T000 163N 1331E 045 R034 200 NE QD 240 SE QD 280 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 179N 1325E 050 R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 240 SE QD 230 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 200N 1319E 055 R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 220 SE QD 180 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 222N 1310E 065 R064 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 200 NW QD
T048 242N 1296E 075 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 220 NW QD
T072 269N 1255E 085 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 180 NW QD
T096 285N 1217E 065 R064 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 307N 1184E 045 R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 009 RELOCATED
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 009 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 16.3N 133.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 133.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 17.9N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.0N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 22.2N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 24.2N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 26.9N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 28.5N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 30.7N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 132.9E.
29JUL23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
290600Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z
IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 144N1350E 35
0623072818 151N1343E 35
0623072900 157N1337E 40
0623072906 163N1331E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 009 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 009 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 16.3N 133.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 133.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 17.9N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.0N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 22.2N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 24.2N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 26.9N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 28.5N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 30.7N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 132.9E.
29JUL23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
290600Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z
IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: RELOCATED 290000Z POSITION 65NM
SOUTHWEST BASED ON A RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGE AND ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY RESULTING IN A SHIFTED FORECAST TRACK
FURTHER WEST.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 16.6N, 133.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. S-NPP/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290600UTC 16.6N 133.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 400NM SOUTHEAST 350NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 291800UTC 18.2N 133.1E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 300600UTC 20.3N 132.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 310600UTC 24.5N 130.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 010600UTC 26.7N 125.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 020600UTC 28.1N 122.0E 125NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 030600UTC 29.7N 119.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 290600
WARNING 290600.
WARNING VALID 300600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 994 HPA
AT 16.6N 133.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 18.2N 133.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 20.3N 132.7E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 24.5N 130.1E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 26.7N 125.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 28.1N 122.0E WITH 125 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 29.7N 119.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 290300
WARNING 290300.
WARNING VALID 300300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 996 HPA
AT 16.3N 134.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300300UTC AT 20.0N 132.8E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 290300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290300UTC 16.3N 134.2E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 300300UTC 20.0N 132.8E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 310000UTC 23.6N 130.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 010000UTC 26.4N 126.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 020000UTC 27.9N 121.8E 125NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 030000UTC 29.3N 118.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 290300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230729012215
2023072900 06W KHANUN 008 01 325 15 SATL 030
T000 168N 1337E 040 R034 100 NE QD 155 SE QD 170 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 182N 1331E 045 R034 180 NE QD 230 SE QD 190 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 201N 1324E 055 R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 230 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 223N 1313E 065 R064 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 243N 1297E 070 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 180 NW QD
T072 273N 1259E 085 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 180 NW QD
T096 296N 1217E 070 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 200 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 318N 1188E 045 R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 16.8N 133.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 133.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 18.2N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.1N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 22.3N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 24.3N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 27.3N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 29.6N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 31.8N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 133.6E.
29JUL23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 668 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 290000Z
IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 148N1354E 35
0623072818 156N1346E 35
0623072900 168N1337E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 16.8N 133.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 133.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 18.2N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.1N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 22.3N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 24.3N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 27.3N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 29.6N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 31.8N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 133.6E.
29JUL23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 668 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 290000Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
290000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND
300300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW)
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 16.2N, 134.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE
LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP
AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 16.2N 134.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 300000UTC 19.4N 133.0E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 310000UTC 23.6N 130.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 010000UTC 26.4N 126.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 020000UTC 27.9N 121.8E 125NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 030000UTC 29.3N 118.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 290000
WARNING 290000.
WARNING VALID 300000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 998 HPA
AT 16.2N 134.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 19.4N 133.0E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 23.6N 130.3E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 26.4N 126.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 27.9N 121.8E WITH 125 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 29.3N 118.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 282100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 282100UTC 15.3N 134.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 292100UTC 18.8N 133.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 301800UTC 22.8N 131.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 311800UTC 26.1N 127.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 011800UTC 28.1N 122.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 021800UTC 29.4N 119.7E 180NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 282100
WARNING 282100.
WARNING VALID 292100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 998 HPA
AT 15.3N 134.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 292100UTC AT 18.8N 133.1E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 282100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230728185550
2023072818 06W KHANUN 007 02 315 11 SATL SYNP 030
T000 156N 1346E 035 R034 000 NE QD 165 SE QD 200 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 171N 1340E 040 R034 170 NE QD 220 SE QD 240 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 187N 1334E 050 R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 230 SE QD 180 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 209N 1324E 060 R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 230N 1312E 070 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 264N 1273E 090 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 180 NW QD
T096 287N 1233E 080 R064 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 315N 1195E 055 R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 15.6N 134.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 134.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 17.1N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.7N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.9N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 23.0N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 26.4N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 28.7N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 31.5N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 134.4E.
28JUL23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 756
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 281800Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1362E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 148N1354E 35
0623072818 156N1346E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 15.6N 134.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 134.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 17.1N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.7N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.9N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 23.0N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 26.4N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 28.7N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 31.5N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 134.4E.
28JUL23. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 756
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 281800Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z,
291500Z AND 292100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 15.1N, 134.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE
LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS,
REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281800UTC 15.1N 134.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 291800UTC 18.3N 133.3E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 301800UTC 22.8N 131.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 311800UTC 26.1N 127.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 011800UTC 28.1N 122.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 021800UTC 29.4N 119.7E 180NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 281800
WARNING 281800.
WARNING VALID 291800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 998 HPA
AT 15.1N 134.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 18.3N 133.3E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 22.8N 131.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 26.1N 127.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 28.1N 122.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 29.4N 119.7E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 281500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281500UTC 14.9N 134.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 291500UTC 18.0N 133.6E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 301200UTC 22.2N 131.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 311200UTC 26.0N 128.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 011200UTC 28.1N 123.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 021200UTC 30.5N 120.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 281500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230728134448
2023072812 06W KHANUN 006 02 340 13 SATL 060
T000 148N 1354E 035 R034 000 NE QD 165 SE QD 200 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 161N 1347E 040 R034 130 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 179N 1340E 045 R034 180 NE QD 220 SE QD 180 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 199N 1331E 050 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 230 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 225N 1319E 060 R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 220 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 260N 1279E 100 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 288N 1238E 105 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 314N 1203E 075 R064 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 000 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 180 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 14.8N 135.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 135.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 16.1N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.9N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.9N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 22.5N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 26.0N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 28.8N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 31.4N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 135.2E. 28JUL23.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
821 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 281200Z IS 996 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05W (DOKSURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 125N1360E 30
0623072806 136N1358E 35
0623072812 148N1354E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 14.8N 135.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 135.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 16.1N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.9N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.9N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 22.5N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 26.0N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 28.8N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 31.4N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 135.2E. 28JUL23.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
821 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 281200Z IS 996 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05W (DOKSURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 14.2N, 135.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS,
REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 14.2N 135.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 291200UTC 17.4N 133.9E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 301200UTC 22.2N 131.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 311200UTC 26.0N 128.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 011200UTC 28.1N 123.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 021200UTC 30.5N 120.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 281200
WARNING 281200.
WARNING VALID 291200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 998 HPA
AT 14.2N 135.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 17.4N 133.9E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 22.2N 131.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 26.0N 128.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 28.1N 123.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 30.5N 120.0E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 280900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280900UTC 14.0N 135.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 290900UTC 17.0N 134.3E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 300600UTC 21.2N 133.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 310600UTC 25.5N 129.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 010600UTC 27.9N 124.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 020600UTC 30.5N 120.6E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 280900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230728074642
2023072806 06W KHANUN 005 02 355 09 SATL 060
T000 134N 1359E 035 R034 000 NE QD 165 SE QD 200 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 148N 1350E 040 R034 100 NE QD 220 SE QD 210 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 163N 1343E 045 R034 160 NE QD 230 SE QD 210 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 183N 1336E 055 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 240 SE QD 170 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 206N 1326E 070 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 240 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 249N 1292E 105 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 150 SW QD 180 NW QD
T096 278N 1248E 110 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 313N 1210E 090 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 220 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 13.4N 135.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 135.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 14.8N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.3N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.3N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.6N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 24.9N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 27.8N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 31.3N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 135.7E. 28JUL23.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
908 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 72806Z IS 996 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 129N1368E 30
0623072800 125N1360E 30
0623072806 134N1359E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 13.4N 135.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 135.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 14.8N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.3N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.3N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.6N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 24.9N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 27.8N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 31.3N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 135.7E. 28JUL23.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
908 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 72806Z IS 996 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 13.7N, 136.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS
AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280600UTC 13.7N 136.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 290600UTC 16.6N 134.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 300600UTC 21.2N 133.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 310600UTC 25.5N 129.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 010600UTC 27.9N 124.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 020600UTC 30.5N 120.6E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 280600
WARNING 280600.
WARNING VALID 290600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 998 HPA
AT 13.7N 136.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 16.6N 134.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 21.2N 133.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 25.5N 129.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 27.9N 124.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 30.5N 120.6E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 280300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280300UTC 13.3N 136.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 290300UTC 16.1N 134.9E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 300000UTC 20.3N 133.6E 115NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 310000UTC 24.6N 130.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 010000UTC 27.6N 125.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
117HF 020000UTC 29.9N 120.6E 180NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 13.1N 135.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 135.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.5N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.8N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.7N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.9N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 24.2N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 27.3N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 30.1N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 135.7E.
28JUL23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 924
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 280000Z IS 1001
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
05W (DOKSURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 280300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230728015031
2023072800 06W SIX 004 02 275 09 SATL 060
T000 131N 1359E 030
T012 145N 1350E 040 R034 080 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 158N 1342E 050 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 110 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 177N 1336E 055 R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 199N 1327E 065 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 000 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 180 SE QD 070 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 242N 1297E 100 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 273N 1251E 110 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 301N 1208E 095 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 13.1N 135.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 135.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.5N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.8N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.7N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.9N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 24.2N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 27.3N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 30.1N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 135.7E.
28JUL23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 924
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 72800Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 121N1396E 25
0623072712 129N1375E 25
0623072718 130N1368E 30
0623072800 131N1359E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 13.2N, 136.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE
LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280000UTC 13.2N 136.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 290000UTC 15.8N 135.3E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 300000UTC 20.3N 133.6E 115NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 310000UTC 24.6N 130.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 010000UTC 27.6N 125.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 020000UTC 29.9N 120.6E 180NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 280000
WARNING 280000.
WARNING VALID 290000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) 1000 HPA
AT 13.2N 136.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 15.8N 135.3E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 20.3N 133.6E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 24.6N 130.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 27.6N 125.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 29.9N 120.6E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 272100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 272100UTC 12.7N 137.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 282100UTC 15.6N 135.5E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 291800UTC 19.4N 134.7E 115NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 301800UTC 24.0N 131.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 311800UTC 27.1N 126.3E 175NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
117HF 011800UTC 29.9N 122.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2306 KHANUN (2306)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 12.0N, 138.8E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(KHANUN) STATUS. TS KHANUN IS LOCATED AT 12.3N, 138.2E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 13.3N 136.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 136.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 14.3N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.7N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 17.3N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.2N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 23.9N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 27.0N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 29.4N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 135.9E.
27JUL23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 919
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
271800Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2306 KHANUN (2306) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271800UTC 12.3N 138.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 281800UTC 15.5N 136.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 291800UTC 19.4N 134.7E 115NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 301800UTC 24.0N 131.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 311800UTC 27.1N 126.3E 175NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 011800UTC 29.9N 122.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 271800
WARNING 271800.
WARNING VALID 281800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2306 KHANUN (2306) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1000 HPA
AT 12.3N 138.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 15.5N 136.0E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 19.4N 134.7E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 24.0N 131.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 27.1N 126.3E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 29.9N 122.1E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 12.6N 137.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 137.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 13.1N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.1N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.8N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.5N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.9N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 25.6N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 28.1N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 137.5E. 27JUL23.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
186 NM NORTH OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 271200Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 271500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230727141706
2023072712 06W SIX 002 02 285 14 SATL 060
T000 126N 1379E 025
T012 131N 1364E 030
T024 141N 1355E 035 R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 158N 1349E 040 R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 175N 1344E 050 R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 219N 1322E 085 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 140 SE QD 070 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 256N 1282E 110 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 180 NW QD
T120 281N 1231E 110 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 12.6N 137.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 137.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 13.1N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.1N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.8N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.5N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.9N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 25.6N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 28.1N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 137.5E. 27JUL23.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
186 NM NORTH OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 271200Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 122N1393E 25
0623072712 126N1379E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 12.5N 139.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 139.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 13.3N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 13.9N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.0N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.7N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.7N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 24.8N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 27.3N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 139.3E.27JUL23.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
203 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 270600Z IS 1003 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 270900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 230727080841
2023072706 06W SIX 001 02 320 12 SATL 060
T000 125N 1397E 025
T012 133N 1380E 030
T024 139N 1368E 035 R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 150N 1361E 040 R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 170 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 167N 1356E 055 R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 207N 1345E 090 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 248N 1306E 115 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 160 NW QD
T120 273N 1251E 115 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 12.5N 139.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 139.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 13.3N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 13.9N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.0N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.7N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.7N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 24.8N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 27.3N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 139.3E.27JUL23.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
203 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 270600Z IS 1003 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
0623072412 64N1426E 15
0623072418 72N1421E 15
0623072500 76N1418E 15
0623072506 81N1416E 15
0623072512 85N1416E 20
0623072518 88N1416E 20
0623072600 90N1417E 20
0623072606 94N1416E 20
0623072612 98N1414E 20
0623072618 107N1410E 20
0623072700 116N1405E 25
0623072706 125N1397E 25
NNNN

>

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