Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ENALA-23
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 26.6S 67.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 67.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 26.2S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 26.4S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 26.5S 67.8E.
28FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 702
NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A BLOOM OF DEEP CONVECTION PRESENT IN
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENT
ASSESSED AS A HYBRID SYSTEM, ALREADY UNDERGOING THE SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION (STT) PROCESS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS CHOKED
THE SYSTEM, ROBBING IT OF MOISTURE NEEDED TO SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, WHILE HIGH (30-40 KTS) OF WESTERLY SHEAR HAS DECAPITATED
IT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A FULLY SUBTROPICAL LOW
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME CONTINUING TO WEAKEN
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 281800Z IS 15 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 27.6S 68.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.6S 68.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 27.0S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 26.7S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 26.8S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 27.8S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 27.4S 68.0E.
28FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 739
NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 010900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 280050
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/8/20222023
1.A DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 28/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 28.1 S / 67.9 E
(VINGT HUIT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1015 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/02/2023 12 UTC: 27.3 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 110

24H: 01/03/2023 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 230 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 95 NO: 0

36H: 01/03/2023 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 0

48H: 02/03/2023 00 UTC: 27.3 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

60H: 02/03/2023 12 UTC: 28.6 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 03/03/2023 00 UTC: 30.1 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/03/2023 00 UTC: 35.5 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
EN COURS DE NUIT, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME A
GRADUELLEMENT EVOLUE VERS UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE AVEC UNE
CONVECTION RESIDUELLE REJETEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST, SOUS L'EFFET
D'UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT PROFOND ET MOYEN. SI LA
CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES DEMEURE ENCORE SYMETRIQUE ET ASSEZ BIEN
DEFINIE (CF SSMIS DE 2308Z ARRIVEE JUSTE APRES L'ENVOI DES
BULLETINS), L'EXTENSION GEOGRAPHIQUE DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE A
SENSIBLEMENT DIMINUE AU COURS DERNIERES 24H EN LIEN AVEC DES
INTRUSIONS SECHES PLUS MARQUEES AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION
DEPRESSIONNAIRE. L'INTENSITE EST EXTRAPOLEE A 35 KT SUITE AUX PASS
ASCAT D'HIER SOIR.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE ATTENDUE AU
COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS: ENALA A ACCELERE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU
NORD A NORD-NORS-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
BASSE ET MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE
MERCREDI, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT REDESCENDRE DANS LES BASSES
COUCHES SUITE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. ENALA DEVRAIT ALORS SE
RETROUVER SUR LA FACADE NORD-OUEST A OUEST D'UNE DORSALE DE BASSES
COUCHES, A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES QUI FINIRA PAR
L'ABSORBER EN SECONDE PARTIE DE SEMAINE. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST
BASEE SUR UN COMPRIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES QUI
MONTRENT GLOBALEMENT MAINTENANT PLUS DE COHERENCE QU'IL Y A 24H.

CONCERNANT L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST A
SUD-OUEST EST ENTRAIN DE SE RENFORCER ET IMPACTE FORTEMENT LA
STRUCTURE D'ENALA. LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE RESTE TRES MARGINAL ET DES
CE SOIR, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT ETRE DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT BAROCLINE EN INTERACTION AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UN NOUVEAU
TALWEG D'ALTITUDE. UNE INTENSIFICATION LEGERE ET TEMPORAIRE EST
POSSIBLE MAIS DANS CE CAS, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES. LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE S'EVACUE RAPIDEMENT
DEMAIN MERCREDI ET UNE PHASE FINALE DE COMBLEMENT EST ENSUITE
ATTENDUE POUR LE RESTE DE LA SEMAINE.

DERNIER BULLETIN SUR CE SYSTEME QUI CONTINUE D'ETRE SUIVI VIA LE
BULLETIN QUOTIDIEN WTIO31 FMEE=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 280050
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/8/20222023
1.A REMNANT LOW 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/28 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.1 S / 67.9 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1015 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/28 12 UTC: 27.3 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 110

24H: 2023/03/01 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 230 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 0

36H: 2023/03/01 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 0

48H: 2023/03/02 00 UTC: 27.3 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2023/03/02 12 UTC: 28.6 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2023/03/03 00 UTC: 30.1 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/04 00 UTC: 35.5 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE NIGHT, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY EVOLVED
TOWARDS A SHEARED PATTERN WITH A RESIDUAL CONVECTION REJECTED IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, UNDER THE EFFECT OF AN INCREASE OF THE VERTICAL
DEEP AND MID-SHEAR SHEAR. IF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL
SYMMETRICAL AND QUITE WELL DEFINED (CF SSMIS OF 2308Z ARRIVING JUST
AFTER THE BULLETINS WERE SENT), THE GEOGRAPHICAL EXTENSION OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS
IN CONNECTION WITH MORE MARKED DRY INTRUSIONS WITHIN THE CLOKWISE
CIRCULATION. THE INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED TO 35 KT FOLLOWING THE
SCATT ESTIMATES OF YESTERDAY EVENING.

NO CHANGE IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS: ENALA HAS ACCELERATED IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW AND MID TROPOSPHERE
LOCATED WEST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM WEDNESDAY, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
GO BACK DOWN IN THE LOW LAYERS FOLLOWING THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.
ENALA SHOULD THEN BE ON THE NORTHWEST TO WEST SIDE OF A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE, AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY ABSORB IT
IN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON AN
UNDERSTANDING BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WHICH IS NOW
GLOBALLY MORE COHERENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

CONCERNING THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM, THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SHEAR
IS STRENGTHENING AND STRONGLY IMPACTING THE ENALA STRUCTURE. THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY MARGINAL AND FROM THIS EVENING, THE
SYSTEM COULD TEMPORARILY BE IN A BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT IN
INTERACTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW UPPER TROUGH. A SLIGHT AND
TEMPORARY INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BUT IN THIS CASE, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
EVACUATE RAPIDLY TOMORROW WEDNESDAY AND A FINAL FILLING PHASE IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTHER INFORMATION WILL BE AVAILABLE ON
A DAILY BASIS WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 280023
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/02/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/02/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: REMNANT LOW 8 (ENALA) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.1 S / 67.9 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 55
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/28 AT 12 UTC:
27.3 S / 67.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 60 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/01 AT 00 UTC:
26.9 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
GALE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD
LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 28.6S 67.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.6S 67.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 27.7S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 27.1S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 26.9S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 27.2S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 29.2S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 28.4S 67.7E.
27FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 763
NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 271841
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/8/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 27/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 28.5 S / 67.8 E
(VINGT HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 110

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1015 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/02/2023 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 55

24H: 28/02/2023 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 95

36H: 01/03/2023 06 UTC: 26.7 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 250 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 0

48H: 01/03/2023 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 02/03/2023 06 UTC: 27.9 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 02/03/2023 18 UTC: 29.2 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/03/2023 18 UTC: 33.6 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 0


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
IL Y A EU UNE BONNE COUVERTURE ASCAT CES DERNIERES 24H SUR ENALA. LES
DERBIERES RECUES (ASCAT-B ET C RECUES PEU AVANT 18Z) ONT PERMIS DE
PRECISER LA POSITION, LA STRCUTURE ET L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME. LES
DONNEES ONT ETE RECOUPEES AVEC CELLES DE LA PASS SAR RCM-3 DE 1405Z.
LES VENTS ONT FAIBLIT AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION ET CELLE-CI TEND A
DEVENIR ASYMETRIQUE. SUR LA BASE DE CES DONNEES, LE SYSTEME EST
ESTIME A 40 KT.

ENALA A ACCELERE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU NORD SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE ET MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE A L'OUEST
DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT
REDESCENDRE DANS LES BASSES COUCHES SUITE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
SYSTEME. ENALA DEVRAIT ALORS SE RETROUVER SUR LA FACADE NORD-OUEST A
OUEST D'UNE DORSALE DE BASSES COUCHES, A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES QUI FINIRA PAR L'ABSORBER EN SECONDE PARTIE DE
SEMAINE. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPRIS ENTRE LES
MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES QUI MONTRENT GLOBALEMENT MAINTENANT
PLUS DE COHERENCE QU'IL Y A 24H.

CONCERNANT L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME, ENALA A BENEFICIE D'UN
ENVIRONNEMENT TEMPORAIREMENT MOINS CISAILLE SOUS LE THALWEG.
TOUTEFOIS LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST A SUD-OUEST EST ENTRAIN DE
SE RENFORCER ET DEVRAIT FORTEMENT IMPACTER LA STRUCTURE D'ENALA.
MERCREDI, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT ETRE DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT BAROCLINE EN INTERACTION AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UN NOUVEAU
THALWEG D'ALTITUDE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES. UNE PHASE DE COMBLEMENT FINAL EST
ENSUITE ATTENDUE A PARTIR DU MILIEU DE SEMAINE.

ENALA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 271841
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/8/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/27 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.5 S / 67.8 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1015 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/28 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 55

24H: 2023/02/28 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95

36H: 2023/03/01 06 UTC: 26.7 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 250 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 0

48H: 2023/03/01 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2023/03/02 06 UTC: 27.9 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2023/03/02 18 UTC: 29.2 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/03 18 UTC: 33.6 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 0


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THERE WAS A GOOD ASCAT COVERAGE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS ON ENALA.
THE LAST RECEIVED DATA (ASCAT-B AND C RECEIVED SHORTLY BEFORE 18Z)
ALLOWED TO SPECIFY THE POSITION, THE STRUCTURE AND THE INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM. THE DATA WERE CROSSCHECKED WITH THOSE OF THE SAR RCM-3
PASS OF 1405Z. THE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION AND IT
TENDS TO BECOME ASYMMETRIC. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE SYSTEM IS
ESTIMATED AT 40 KT.

ENALA HAS ACCELERATED IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW AND MID TROPOSPHERE LOCATED
WEST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM WEDNESDAY, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD GO BACK
DOWN IN THE LOW LAYERS FOLLOWING THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. ENALA
SHOULD THEN BE ON THE NORTHWEST TO WEST SIDE OF A LOW LEVEL RIDGE,
AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY ABSORB IT IN THE
SECOND PART OF THE WEEK. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON AN
UNDERSTANDING BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WHICH IS NOW
GLOBALLY MORE COHERENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

CONCERNING THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM, ENALA HAS BENEFITED FROM A
TEMPORARILY LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST SHEAR IS STRENGTHENING AND SHOULD STRONGLY IMPACT
THE STRUCTURE OF ENALA. ON WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD TEMPORARILY BE
IN A BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT IN INTERACTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW
UPPER TROUGH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. A FINAL FILLING PHASE IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

ENALA DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 271829
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/02/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 27/02/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.5 S / 67.8 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/28 AT 06 UTC:
27.6 S / 68.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/28 AT 18 UTC:
27.0 S / 67.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 50 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 271228
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/8/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 27/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 29.0 S / 67.5 E
(VINGT NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 130 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 100

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1015 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/02/2023 00 UTC: 28.1 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SO: 155 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 75

24H: 28/02/2023 12 UTC: 27.3 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 01/03/2023 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 0

48H: 01/03/2023 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 110

60H: 02/03/2023 00 UTC: 28.1 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 02/03/2023 12 UTC: 29.1 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA TEMPERATURE DU SOMMET DES NUAGES
AUTOUR DU CENTRE DE ENALA S'EST NETTEMENT RECHAUFFEE MAIS LA
CONVECTION EST TOUJOURS PRESENTE AUTOUR DU CENTRE, NOTAMMENT DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE EST. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 DE 0912Z MET BIEN EN
EVIDENCE LA CONVECTION, AINSI QU'UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE LAISSANT
APPARAITRE LE VORTEX DE BASSES COUCHES. EN ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES
OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES, L'INTENSITE DE ENALA EST
MAINTENUE A 45KT.

ENALA A POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS,
PUIS ELLE A AMORCE UN VIRAGE VERS LE NORD CES DERNIERES HEURES. CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE ET MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE SITUEE A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE
FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT REDESCENDRE DANS LES BASSES COUCHES SUITE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. ENALA DEVRAIT ALORS SE RETROUVER SUR LA
FACADE NORD-OUEST A OUEST D'UNE DORSALE DE BASSES COUCHES, A L'AVANT
D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES QUI FINIRA PAR L'ABSORBER EN
SECONDE PARTIE DE SEMAINE. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN
COMPRIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES. SI LA PHILOSOPHIE
GLOBALE DE LA PREVISION EST PARTAGEE ENTRE TOUS LES MODELES, IL
EXISTE DES VARIATIONS D'UN MODELE A L'AUTRE SUR LE DEROULE PRECIS DE
LA BOUCLE EFFECTUEE PAR ENALA AVANT DE S'EVACUER HORS ZONE TROPICALE.

CONCERNANT L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME, ENALA A BENEFICIE D'UN
ENVRIONNEMENT TEMPORAIREMENT MOINS CISAILLE SOUS LE THALWEG. MEME SI
LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EST TRES FAIBLE, IL DEVRAIT ETRE SUFFISANT
POUR MAINTENIR LE STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE DANS LES
PROCHAINES HEURES. PUIS, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST A SUD-OUEST
DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER CONDUISANT A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT D'ENALA AVEC DES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT
TEMPORAIREMENT ETRE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE BAROCLINE EN INTERACTION
AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UN NOUVEAU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
ALORS PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES. UNE PHASE DE COMBLEMENT
FINAL EST ENSUITE ATTENDUE A PARTIR DU MILIEU DE SEMAINE.

ENALA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 271228
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/8/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.0 S / 67.5 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1015 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/28 00 UTC: 28.1 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 75

24H: 2023/02/28 12 UTC: 27.3 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2023/03/01 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 0

48H: 2023/03/01 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 110

60H: 2023/03/02 00 UTC: 28.1 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2023/03/02 12 UTC: 29.1 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE TEMPERATURE OF THE CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE
CENTER OF ENALA HAS WARMED UP SIGNIFICANTLY BUT CONVECTION IS STILL
PRESENT AROUND THE CENTER, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 0912Z CLEARLY SHOWS CONVECTION, AS WELL AS
A SHEARED PATTERN REVEALING THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX. IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES, THE INTENSITY OF
ENALA IS MAINTAINED AT 45KT.

ENALA HAS CONTINUED ITS EASTWARD TRACK AT FIRST, THEN IT HAS STARTED
A NORTHWARD TURN IN THE LAST HOURS. THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OF LOW AND MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEM. FROM WEDNESDAY, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD GO BACK DOWN IN THE
LOW LAYERS FOLLOWING THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. ENALA SHOULD THEN
BE ON THE NORTHWEST TO WEST SIDE OF A LOW LEVEL RIDGE, AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY ABSORB IT IN THE SECOND PART
OF THE WEEK. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. IF THE GLOBAL PHILOSOPHY OF THE FORECAST IS
SHARED BY ALL THE MODELS, THERE ARE VARIATIONS FROM ONE MODEL TO
ANOTHER ON THE PRECISE COURSE OF THE LOOP MADE BY ENALA BEFORE
EVACUATING OUT OF THE TROPICAL ZONE.

CONCERNING THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM, ENALA BENEFITED FROM A
TEMPORARILY LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE THALWEG. EVEN IF THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW, IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN, THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN LEADING TO THE WEAKENING OF
ENALA WITH INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR. FROM WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD
TEMPORARILY BE IN A BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT INTERACTING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A NEW UPPER TROUGH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN LOSE ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. A FINAL FILLING PHASE IS THEN EXPECTED FROM
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

ENALA DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 271208
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/02/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 27/02/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.0 S / 67.5 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 160 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/28 AT 00 UTC:
28.1 S / 67.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/28 AT 12 UTC:
27.3 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 29.2S 67.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.2S 67.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 28.8S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 28.0S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 27.5S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 27.1S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 28.2S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 29.1S 67.1E.
27FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 270600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 270627
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/8/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 27/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 29.2 S / 67.2 E
(VINGT NEUF DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-NORD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 130 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1015 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/02/2023 18 UTC: 28.5 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 85 NO: 85

24H: 28/02/2023 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SO: 215 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 28/02/2023 18 UTC: 27.2 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 100 NO: 0

48H: 01/03/2023 06 UTC: 27.2 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SO: 85 NO: 65

60H: 01/03/2023 18 UTC: 27.5 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 130 NO: 0

72H: 02/03/2023 06 UTC: 28.5 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/03/2023 06 UTC: 32.4 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

120H: 04/03/2023 06 UTC: 36.4 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 195

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6H DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION AUTOUR DU CENTRE
D'ENALA S'EST INTENSIFIEE, NOTAMMENT DANS SA PARTIE SUD. ELLE A
TEMPORAIREMENT EVOLUE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT MOINS CISAILLE AVANT DE
RETROUVER UNE ZONE AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT ANALYSE DE SECTEUR OUEST DE
20-25KT, LAISSANT SON CENTRE EXPOSE SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES
VISIBLES. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0515Z PERMET S'ESTIMER L'INTENSITE A
45KT. ENALA EST DONC RETROGRADEE AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE A 06UTC.

ENALA POURSUIT SON VIRAGE VERS L'EST PUIS ELLE VA CONTINUER SON DEMI
TOUR SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE LENTE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU NORD. CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 36H, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE ET MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE SITUEE A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE
FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT REDESCENDRE DANS LES BASSES COUCHES SUITE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. ENALA DEVRAIT ALORS SE RETROUVER SUR LA
FACADE NORD-OUEST A OUEST D'UNE DORSALE DE BASSES COUCHES, A L'AVANT
D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES QUI FINIRA PAR L'ABSORBER EN
SECONDE PARTIE DE SEMAINE. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN
COMPRIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES. SI LA PHILOSOPHIE
GLOBALE DE LA PREVISION EST PARTAGEE ENTRE TOUS LES MODELES, IL
EXISTE DES VARIATIONS D'UN MODELE A L'AUTRE SUR LE DEROULE PRECIS DU
SCENARIO INDUISANT UNE INCERTITUDE ENCORE ASSEZ SIGNIFICATIVE SUR LA
PREVISION AU DELA DE J+2.

CONCERNANT L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME, ENALA A BENEFICIE D'UN
ENVRIONNEMENT TEMPORAIREMENT MOINS CISAILLE SOUS LE THALWEG. MEME SI
LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EST TRES FAIBLE, IL DEVRAIT ETRE SUFFISANT
POUR MAINTENIR LE STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE DANS LES
PROCHAINES 18 HEURES. PUIS, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST A
SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER CONDUISANT A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT D'ENALA
AVEC DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE SYSTEME
POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT ETRE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE BAROCLINE EN
INTERACTION AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UN NOUVEAU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE. LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS COMMENCER A PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES. UNE PHASE DE COMBLEMENT FINAL EST ENSUITE ATTENDUE A
PARTIR DU MILIEU DE SEMAINE.

ENALA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 270627
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/8/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/27 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.2 S / 67.2 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1015 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/27 18 UTC: 28.5 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 85

24H: 2023/02/28 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 215 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2023/02/28 18 UTC: 27.2 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 0

48H: 2023/03/01 06 UTC: 27.2 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SW: 85 NW: 65

60H: 2023/03/01 18 UTC: 27.5 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 0

72H: 2023/03/02 06 UTC: 28.5 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/03 06 UTC: 32.4 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2023/03/04 06 UTC: 36.4 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 195

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER OF ENALA
HAS INTENSIFIED, ESPECIALLY IN ITS SOUTHERN PART. IT HAS TEMPORARILY
EVOLVED IN A LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BEFORE RETURNING TO AN AREA
WITH A 20-25KT WEST SHEAR, LEAVING ITS CENTER EXPOSED ON THE LAST
VISIBLE IMAGES. THE ASCAT PASS OF 0515Z ALLOWS TO ESTIMATE THE
INTENSITY AT 45KT. ENALA IS THEREFORE DOWNGRADED TO A MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM AT 06UTC.

ENALA CONTINUES ITS TURN TOWARDS THE EAST THEN IT WILL CONTINUE ITS
HALF TURN ON A SLOW TRACK IN GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE NORTH. THIS
TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW AND MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE
LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM WEDNESDAY, THE STEERING FLOW
SHOULD GO BACK DOWN IN THE LOW LAYERS FOLLOWING THE WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. ENALA SHOULD THEN BE ON THE NORTHWEST TO WEST SIDE OF A LOW
LEVEL RIDGE, AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
ABSORB IT IN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED
ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. IF THE GLOBAL
PHILOSOPHY OF THE FORECAST IS SHARED BY ALL THE MODELS, THERE ARE
VARIATIONS FROM ONE MODEL TO ANOTHER ON THE PRECISE COURSE OF THE
SCENARIO, LEADING TO A STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON THE FORECAST
BEYOND D+2.

IN CONCERNING THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM, ENALA BENEFITED FROM A
TEMPORARILY LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE THALWEG. EVEN IF THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS VERY WEAK, IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. THEN, THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN LEADING TO THE WEAKENING OF ENALA
WITH INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR. FROM WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD
TEMPORARILY BE IN A BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT INTERACTING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A NEW UPPER TROUGH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN START TO LOSE
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. A FINAL FILLING PHASE IS THEN EXPECTED
FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

ENALA DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 270608
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/02/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 27/02/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.2 S / 67.2 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/27 AT 18 UTC:
28.5 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/28 AT 06 UTC:
27.6 S / 67.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 270040
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/8/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 27/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 29.0 S / 66.8 E
(VINGT NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1015 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/02/2023 12 UTC: 28.8 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

24H: 28/02/2023 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SO: 85 NO: 75

36H: 28/02/2023 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SO: 205 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SO: 85 NO: 0

48H: 01/03/2023 00 UTC: 27.2 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 165 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 65

60H: 01/03/2023 12 UTC: 27.1 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SO: 175 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SO: 95 NO: 0

72H: 02/03/2023 00 UTC: 27.6 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/03/2023 00 UTC: 31.1 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

120H: 04/03/2023 00 UTC: 36.3 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'ENALA A LEGEREMENT EVOLUE AU COURS DES
DERNIERES HEURES. LA CONVECTION PROFONDE S'EST DEPLACEE DU QUADRANT
NORD-OUEST AU QUADRANT SUD-EST, PROBABLEMENT EN LIEN AVEC
L'ORIENTATION PROGRESSIVE DU CISAILLEMENT AU SUD-OUEST.

ENALA A COMMENCE A AMORCE UN VIRAGE VERS L'EST ET IL CONTINUER SON
DEMI TOUR SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE LENTE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU NORD QUI
DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR JUSQU'A MARDI, SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE ET MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE A L'OUEST DU
SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT REDESCENDRE
DANS LES BASSES COUCHES SUITE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. ENALA
DEVRAIT ALORS SE RETROUVER SUR LA FACADE NORD-OUEST A OUEST D'UNE
DORSALE DE BASSES COUCHES, A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES QUI FINIRA PAR L'ABSORBER EN SECONDE PARTIE DE SEMAINE. LA
PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPRIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES. SI LA PHILOSOPHIE GLOBALE DE LA PREVISION EST
PARTAGEE ENTRE TOUS LES MODELES, IL EXISTE DES VARAIATIONS D'UN
MODELE A L'AUTRE SUR LE DEROULE PRECIS DU SCENARIO INDUISANT UNE
INCERTITUDE ENCORE ASSEZ SIGNIFICATIVE SUR LA PREVISION AU DELA DE
J+2.

CONCERNANT L' INTENSITE DU SYSTEME, ENALA SE SITUE TEMPORAIREMENT
SOUS LE THALWEG DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT PEU CISAILLE. MEME SI LE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EST TRES FAIBLE, IL DEVRAIT ETRE SUFFISANT POUR
MAINTENIR UNE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ENCORE CE MATIN. PLUS TARD, LE
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST A SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER
CONDUISANT A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT D'ENALA. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE
SYSTEME POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT ETRE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE
BAROCLINE EN INTERACTION AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UN NOUVEAU THALWEG
D'ALTITUDE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS COMMENCER A PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES. UNE PHASE DE COMBLEMENT FINAL EST
ENSUITE ATTENDUE A PARTIR DU MILIEU DE SEMAINE.

ENALA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 270040
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/8/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/27 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.0 S / 66.8 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1015 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/27 12 UTC: 28.8 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

24H: 2023/02/28 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 85 NW: 75

36H: 2023/02/28 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 205 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 0

48H: 2023/03/01 00 UTC: 27.2 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 65

60H: 2023/03/01 12 UTC: 27.1 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SW: 95 NW: 0

72H: 2023/03/02 00 UTC: 27.6 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/03 00 UTC: 31.1 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2023/03/04 00 UTC: 36.3 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
ENALA HAS BEGUN TO TURN EASTWARD AND WILL CONTINUE ITS TURN BACK ON A
SLOW TRACK IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION UNTIL TUESDAY, DRIVEN BY
A MID OR LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WEST OF THE SYSTEM.

ENALA HAS BEGUN TO TURN EASTWARD AND WILL CONTINUE ITS TURN BACK ON A
SLOW NORTHERLY DIRECTION UNTIL TUESDAY, DRIVEN BY A MID OR LOW LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WEST OF THE SYSTEM.. FROM WEDNESDAY, THE STEERING
FLOW SHOULD GO BACK DOWN IN THE LOW LEVELS FOLLOWING THE WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM. ENALA SHOULD THEN BE ON THE NORTHWEST TO WEST SIDE OF A
LOW LEVEL RIDGE, AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
ABSORB IT IN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED
ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. IF THE GLOBAL
PHILOSOPHY OF THE FORECAST IS SHARED BY ALL THE MODELS, THERE ARE
VARIATIONS FROM ONE MODEL TO ANOTHER ON THE PRECISE COURSE OF THE
SCENARIO, LEADING TO A STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON THE FORECAST
BEYOND D+2.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENALA IS TEMPORARILY LOCATED UNDER THE TROUGH
IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. EVEN IF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS VERY
LOW, IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM THIS
MORNING. LATER TODAY, THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN
LEADING TO THE WEAKENING OF ENALA. BY WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD
TEMPORARILY BE IN A BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT INTERACTING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A NEW UPPER TROUGH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN START TO LOSE
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. A FINAL FILLING PHASE IS THEN EXPECTED
FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.

ENALA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO LAND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 270014
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/02/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 27/02/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.0 S / 66.8 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/27 AT 12 UTC:
28.8 S / 67.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/28 AT 00 UTC:
28.0 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 29.0S 66.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.0S 66.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 29.2S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 28.8S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 28.4S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 29.1S 66.6E.
26FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740
NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270900Z AND 272100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 261825
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/8/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 26/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 28.8 S / 66.6 E
(VINGT HUIT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1015 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/02/2023 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 27/02/2023 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 95

36H: 28/02/2023 06 UTC: 27.7 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 215 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 0

48H: 28/02/2023 18 UTC: 27.3 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75

60H: 01/03/2023 06 UTC: 27.0 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 65

72H: 01/03/2023 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 140 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/03/2023 18 UTC: 29.3 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

120H: 03/03/2023 18 UTC: 33.1 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 95

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'ENALA S'EST AMELIOREE AU COURS DES
DERNIERES SIX HEURES. AVEC LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT, LA CONVECTION
PROFONDE S'EST RENFORCEE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST ET S'ENROULE
AUTOUR DU CENTRE EN INFRAROUGE ET VAPEUR D'EAU. MEME SI UN DECALAGE
EST ENCORE PRESENT ENTRE LE CENTRE DE LA CIRCULATION D'ALTITUDE ET
CELUI DE BASSES COUCHES, CELA MONTRE UN DEVELOPPEMENT DU COEUR CHAUD.
LES DONNEES ASCAT DE 1704Z CONFIRMENT L'INTENSITE ANALYSEE PAR LA
PASSE SMAP DE 1354Z QUI DONNAIT 52KT. ENALA EST DONC ANALYSEE A 18Z
COMME UNE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 50KT.

ENALA A COMMENCE A RALENTIR SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE
DU SUD-OUEST OU SUD-SUD-OUEST JUSQU'EN FIN DE NUIT PROCHAINE, ALORS
QU'UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE SE PRESENTE AU SUD DU SYSTEME. A
PARTIR DE DEMAIN, ENALA DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN DEMI TOUR SUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE LENTE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU NORD QUI DEVRAIT SE
MAINTENIR JUSQU'EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE. DURANT CETTE PERIODE LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT GRADUELLEMENT PASSER SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE ET MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE A L'OUEST DU
SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT REDESCENDRE
DANS LES BASSES COUCHES SUITE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. ENALA
DEVRAIT ALORS SE RETROUVER SUR LA FACADE NORD-OUEST A OUEST D'UNE
DORSALE DE BASSES COUCHES, A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES QUI FINIRA PAR L'ABSORBER EN SECONDE PARTIE DE SEMAINE. LA
PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPRIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES. SI LA PHILOSOPHIE GLOBALE DE LA PREVISION EST
PARTAGEE ENTRE TOUS LES MODELES, IL EXISTE DES VARAIATIONS D'UN
MODELE A L'AUTRE SUR LE DEROULE PRECIS DU SCENARIO INDUISANT UNE
INCERTITUDE ENCORE ASSEZ SIGNIFICATIVE SUR LA PREVISION AU DELA DE
J+2.

CONCERNANT L' INTENSITE DU SYSTEME, ENALA SE SITUE TEMPORAIREMENT
SOUS LE THALWEG DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT PEU CISAILLEE. MEME SI LE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EST TRES FAIBLE, IL DEVRAIT ETRE SUFFISANT POUR
MAINTENIR UNE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE D'ICI DEMAIN. LUNDI SOIR, LE
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST A SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER
CONDUISANT A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT D'ENALA. A PARTIR DE MARDI, LE SYSTEME
POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT ETRE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE BAROCLINE EN
INTERACTION AVEC UNE BRANCHE DU JOST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS
COMMENCER A PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES. UNE PHASE DE
COMBLEMENT FINAL EST ENSUITE ATTENDUE A PARTIR DU MILIEU DE SEMAINE.

ENALA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 261825
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/8/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/26 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.8 S / 66.6 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1015 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/27 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2023/02/27 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 95

36H: 2023/02/28 06 UTC: 27.7 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 215 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 0

48H: 2023/02/28 18 UTC: 27.3 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75

60H: 2023/03/01 06 UTC: 27.0 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 65

72H: 2023/03/01 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/02 18 UTC: 29.3 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2023/03/03 18 UTC: 33.1 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

ENALA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. WITH THE
DECREASE IN SHEAR, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS STRENGTHENED IN THE NORTH
WESTERN QUADRANT AND IS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER IN INFRARED AND
WATER VAPOR. EVEN IF A TILT IS STILL PRESENT BETWEEN THE UPPER AND
LOWER CENTERS, THIS SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WARM CORE. THE 1704Z
ASCAT DATA CONFIRMS THE INTENSITY ANALYZED BY THE 1354Z SMAP PASS
WHICH GAVE 52KT. ENALA IS THEREFORE ANALYZED AT 18Z AS A SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM 50KT.

ENALA HAS STARTED TO SLOW DOWN ON A GENERAL SOUTH-WEST OR
SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL THE END OF NEXT NIGHT, WHILE A
BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION IS OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. FROM
TOMORROW, ENALA SHOULD START A SLOW TURN ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK
THAT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED UNTIL MID-WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO
MID-LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED WEST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM
WEDNESDAY, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD GO BACK DOWN IN THE LOW LEVELS
FOLLOWING THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. ENALA SHOULD THEN BE ON THE
NORTHWEST TO WEST SIDE OF A LOW LEVEL RIDGE, AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY ABSORB IT IN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.
THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE. IF THE GLOBAL PHILOSOPHY OF THE FORECAST IS SHARED BY ALL
THE MODELS, THERE ARE VARIATIONS FROM ONE MODEL TO ANOTHER ON THE
PRECISE COURSE OF THE SCENARIO, LEADING TO A STILL SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY ON THE FORECAST BEYOND D+2.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENALA IS TEMPORARILY LOCATED UNDER THE TROUGH
IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. EVEN IF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS VERY
LOW, IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM TILL
TOMORROW. ON MONDAY EVENING, THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SHEAR SHOULD
STRENGTHEN LEADING TO THE WEAKENING OF ENALA. BY TUESDAY, THE SYSTEM
COULD TEMPORARILY BE IN A BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT INTERACTING WITH A
BRANCH OF THE JOST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN START TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. A FINAL FILLING PHASE IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

ENALA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO LAND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 261814
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/02/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 26/02/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.8 S / 66.6 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/27 AT 06 UTC:
29.1 S / 66.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/27 AT 18 UTC:
28.4 S / 67.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 50 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 261231
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/8/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 26/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 28.7 S / 66.9 E
(VINGT HUIT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 175 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 100

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1015 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/02/2023 00 UTC: 29.2 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 110 NO: 95

24H: 27/02/2023 12 UTC: 28.9 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 95

36H: 28/02/2023 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 95

48H: 28/02/2023 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SO: 95 NO: 65

60H: 01/03/2023 00 UTC: 27.1 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 165 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SO: 120 NO: 85

72H: 01/03/2023 12 UTC: 26.9 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 175 SO: 85 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/03/2023 12 UTC: 28.6 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

120H: 03/03/2023 12 UTC: 32.4 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE ENALA S'EST GLOBALEMENT EFFONDREE AU
COURS DES DERNIERES 6H AVEC LES SOMMETS LES PLUS FROIDS QUI SE SONT
ELOIGNES DU CENTRE. DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT ENCORE CISAILLE ET SUR DES
EAUX INSUFFISAMMENT CHAUDES POUR SOUTENIR UN SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE
TROPICAL, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE COMMENCE A SA APPARENTER A CELLE
D'UN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL. LES ANALYSES DE DVORAK DEVIENNENT DE
MOINS EN MOINS PERTINENTES POUR ANALYSER L'INTENSITE D'UN PHENOMENE
EVOLUANT DE PLUS EN PLUS DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT ASSEZ EXOTIQUE. A
0910Z, UNE PASS NOAA 20 DONNE POURTANT UNE ESTIMATION ATMS A 60 KT
(VENTS 1-MIN), BASEE SUR L'AMPLITUDE DU COEUR CHAUD, MAINTENANT UN
SATCON A 53 KT EN COMPROMIS ENTRE L'ADT ET L'ATMS. L'INTENSITE EST EN
CONSEQUENCE LAISSEE A 45 KT. LA PRESSION CENTRALE A ETE REVUE
LEGEREMENT A LA HAUSSE POUR TENIR COMPTE DU PASSAGE A PROXIMITE D'UNE
BOUEE EN FIN DE NUIT DERNIERE.

ENALA DEVRAIT MAINTENANT COMMENCER A RALENTIR SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST OU SUD-SUD-OUEST JUSQU'EN FIN DE NUIT
PROCHAINE, ALORS QU'UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE SE PRESENTE AU
SUD DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, ENALA DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN DEMI
TOUR SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE LENTE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU NORD QUI
DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR JUSQU'EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE. DURANT CETTE PERIODE
LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT GRADUELLEMENT PASSER SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE ET MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE A L'OUEST
DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT
REDESCENDRE DANS LES BASSES COUCHES SUITE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
SYSTEME. ENALA DEVRAIT ALORS SE RETROUVER SUR LA FACADE NORD-OUEST A
OUEST D'UNE DORSALE DE BASSES COUCHES, A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES QUI FINIRA PAR L'ABSORBER EN SECONDE PARTIE DE
SEMAINE. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPRIS ENTRE LES
MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES. SI LA PHILOSOPHIE GLOBALE DE LA
PREVISION EST PARTAGEE ENTRE TOUS LES MODELES, IL EXISTE DES
VARAIATIONS D'UN MODELE A L'AUTRE SUR LE DEROULE PRECIS DU SCENARIO
INDUISANT UNE INCERTITUDE ENCORE ASSEZ SIGNIFICATIVE SUR LA PREVISION
AU DELA DE J+2.

CONCERNANT L' INTENSITE DU SYSTEME, SI LE SYSTEME A ETE SENSIBLEMENT
IMPACTE PAR LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET LES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC
AUJOURD'HUI, LE CISAILLEMENT VA BAISSER A PARTIR DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE
ET JUSQU'A DEMAIN APRES-MIDI. LE SYSTEME SERA POSITIONNER SOUS UN
TALWEG D'ALTITUDE. LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE VA TOUTEFOIS RESTER
INSUFFISANT. DANS CES CONDITIONS, L'INTENSITE DE ENALA DEVRAIT SE
MAINTENIR TOUT EN GARDANT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES. LE
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST A SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER A
PARTIR DE LUNDI SOIR METTANT LE SYSTEME SUR UNE TENDANCE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. A PARTIR DE MARDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS ETRE
DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS BAROCLINE EN INTERACTION AVEC
UNE BRANCHE DU JOST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS COMMENCER A PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES. UNE PHASE DE COMBLEMENT FINAL EST
ENSUITE ATTENDUE A PARTIR DU MILIEU DE SEMAINE.

ENALA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 261231
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/8/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/26 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.7 S / 66.9 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1015 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/27 00 UTC: 29.2 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 95

24H: 2023/02/27 12 UTC: 28.9 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 95

36H: 2023/02/28 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 95

48H: 2023/02/28 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 65

60H: 2023/03/01 00 UTC: 27.1 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 85

72H: 2023/03/01 12 UTC: 26.9 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 175 SW: 85 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/02 12 UTC: 28.6 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2023/03/03 12 UTC: 32.4 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ENALA HAS GLOBALLY COLLAPSED DURING THE LAST 6H
WITH THE COLDEST TOPS MOVING AWAY FROM THE CENTER. IN A STILL SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND OVER INSUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS TO SUPPORT A TROPICAL
SYSTEM, THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE A POST-TROPICAL
SYSTEM. DVORAK'S ANALYSES ARE BECOMING LESS AND LESS RELEVANT TO
ANALYZE THE INTENSITY OF A PHENOMENON EVOLVING MORE AND MORE IN A
RATHER EXOTIC ENVIRONMENT. AT 0910Z, A NOAA 20 PASS GIVES HOWEVER AN
ATMS ESTIMATE AT 60 KT (1-MIN WINDS), BASED ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
WARM CORE, MAINTAINING A SATCON AT 53 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN ADT
AND ATMS. THE INTENSITY IS CONSEQUENTLY LEFT AT 45 KT. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS BEEN REVISED SLIGHTLY UPWARDS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE
CLOSEST APPROACH OF A BUOY AT THE END OF LAST NIGHT.

ENALA SHOULD NOW START TO SLOW DOWN ON A GENERAL SOUTH-WEST OR
SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST TRACK UNTIL THE END OF NEXT NIGHT, WHILE A
BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION IS OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. FROM
TOMORROW, ENALA SHOULD START A SLOW TURN ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK
THAT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED UNTIL MID-WEEK. DURING THIS PERIOD THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO
MID-LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED WEST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM
WEDNESDAY, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD GO BACK DOWN IN THE LOW LEVELS
FOLLOWING THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. ENALA SHOULD THEN BE ON THE
NORTHWEST TO WEST SIDE OF A LOW LEVEL RIDGE, AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY ABSORB IT IN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.
THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE. IF THE GLOBAL PHILOSOPHY OF THE FORECAST IS SHARED BY ALL
THE MODELS, THERE ARE VARIATIONS FROM ONE MODEL TO ANOTHER ON THE
PRECISE COURSE OF THE SCENARIO, LEADING TO A STILL SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY ON THE FORECAST BEYOND D+2.

CONCERNING THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM, IF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS TODAY, THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE FROM TONIGHT UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL BE POSITIONED UNDER AN UPPER LEVELS
TROUGH. THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL WILL HOWEVER REMAIN INSUFFICIENT. IN
THESE CONDITIONS, THE INTENSITY OF ENALA SHOULD BE MAINTAINED WHILE
KEEPING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SHEAR
SHOULD STRENGTHEN FROM MONDAY EVENING PUTTING THE SYSTEM ON A
WEAKENING TREND. FROM TUESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BE IN A MORE
AND MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT INTERACTING WITH A BRANCH OF THE
JOST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN START TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. A FINAL FILLING PHASE IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

ENALA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO LAND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 261208
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/02/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 26/02/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.7 S / 66.9 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 110 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/27 AT 00 UTC:
29.2 S / 66.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/27 AT 12 UTC:
28.9 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 28.0S 67.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.0S 67.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 28.5S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 28.9S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 28.5S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 28.0S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 28.1S 67.3E.
26FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 728 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 260600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 260642
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/8/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 26/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 28.1 S / 67.4 E
(VINGT HUIT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 52 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SO: 205 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1015 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/02/2023 18 UTC: 28.8 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 175 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 85

24H: 27/02/2023 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 95

36H: 27/02/2023 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 85

48H: 28/02/2023 06 UTC: 27.7 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 95 NO: 75

60H: 28/02/2023 18 UTC: 27.3 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SO: 175 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 75

72H: 01/03/2023 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SO: 240 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 110 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/03/2023 06 UTC: 28.3 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 95

120H: 03/03/2023 06 UTC: 31.0 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 95

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5-

ENALA A CONNU EN DEBUT DE MATINEE UNE BREVE TENTATIVE DE
RECONSTRUCTION DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE AUTOUR DU CENTRE AVEC UN
CENTRE QUI A ETE BRIEVEMENT SOUS LA MASSE VERS 03 UTC. DEPUIS LA
CONVECTION S'EST EFFONDREE LAISSANT LE CENTRE EN BORDURE NORD-EST DE
LA CONVECTION RESIDUELLE QUI SE MAINTIENT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST.
IL N'Y A PAS OU PEU D'ELEMENT OBJECTIF POUR PRECISER L'INTENSITE
ACTUELLE DU SYSTEME. LA PRESENTE ESTIMATION RESTE DANS LA FOURCHETTE
HAUTE DES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES. A 01Z, UNE BOUEE A
RELEVE 996 HPA (CORRIGEE DE LA MAREE BAROMETRIQUE) DE PRESSION
MINIMALE A UN PEU PLUS DE 30 KM AU NORD-OUEST DU CENTRE; SUGGERANT
QUE LA PRESSION ESTIMEE EST PEUT ETRE UN PEU TROP BASSE.

ENALA DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE GLOBALEMENT UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST OU SUD-SUD-OUEST JUSQU'EN FIN DE NUIT
PROCHAINE, GUIDE PAR UNE CELLULE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE SITUE A L'EST IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN,
ENALA DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN DEMI TOUR SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE LENTE EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DU NORD QUI DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR JUSQU'EN MILIEU
DE SEMAINE. DURANT CETTE PERIODE LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT
GRADUELLEMENT PASSER SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
SITUEE A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR
DEVRAIT REDESCENDRE DANS LES BASSES COUCHES SUITE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DU SYSTEME. ENALA DEVRAIT ALORS SE RETROUVER SUR LA FACADE NORD-OUEST
A OUEST D'UNE DORSALE DE BASSES COUCHES, A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES QUI FINIRA PAR L'ABSORBER EN SECONDE PARTIE DE
SEMAINE. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPRIS ENTRE LES
MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES. SI LA PHILOSOPHIE GLOBALE DE LA
PREVISION EST PARTAGEE ENTRE TOUS LES MODELES, IL EXISTE DES
VARAIATIONS D'UN MODELE A L'AUTRE SUR LE DEROULE PRECIS DU SCENARIO
INDUISANT UNE INCERTITUDE ENCORE ASSEZ SIGNIFICATIVE SUR LA PREVISION
AU DELA DE J+2.

CONCERNANT L' INTENSITE DU SYSTEME, C'EST LE STATU-QUO. LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT MIXTES ET EVOLUENT PEU AUX
ALENTOURS DE ENALA, A L'EXCEPTION DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE MOINS
IMPORTANT QUE CES DERNIERERES HEURES, MAIS AVEC TOUTEFOIS UNE
TEMPERATURE DE LA MER COMPRISE ENTRE 26 ET 24AOC. LE CISAILLEMENT
DEVRAIT EGALEMENT RESTER RAISONNABLE JUSQU'A LUNDI, AVEC LE
DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME SOUS LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE. DANS CES
CONDITIONS, L'INTENSITE DE ENALA DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR EN INTENSITE
TOUT EN GARDANT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES PLUS LONGTEMPS
(NOTAMMENT EN TERMES DE SYMETRIE). A PARTIR DE MARDI SOIR, LES
DERNIERS RUNS GFS/00Z ET IFS/18Z SIMULENT EXPLICITEMENT UNE
INTERACTION BAROCLINE AVEC LE JET ET UNE POSSIBLE RE-NTENSIFICATION
DE LA CIRCULATION. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES.

ENALA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 260642
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/8/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.1 S / 67.4 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 52 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1015 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/26 18 UTC: 28.8 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 85

24H: 2023/02/27 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 95

36H: 2023/02/27 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 85

48H: 2023/02/28 06 UTC: 27.7 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 75

60H: 2023/02/28 18 UTC: 27.3 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 75

72H: 2023/03/01 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/02 06 UTC: 28.3 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 95

120H: 2023/03/03 06 UTC: 31.0 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5-

ENALA EXPERIENCED A BRIEF ATTEMPT TO REBUILD THE DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND THE CENTER EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH THE CENTER BRIEFLY UNDER
THE MASS AROUND 03 UTC. SINCE THEN THE CONVECTION HAS COLLAPSED
LEAVING THE CENTER AT THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION
WHICH IS MAINTAINED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO
OBJECTIVE EVIDENCE TO SPECIFY THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
THE PRESENT ESTIMATE REMAINS IN THE HIGH RANGE OF AVAILABLE
SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. AT 01Z, A BUOY MEASURED 996 HPA (CORRECTED FROM
THE BAROMETRIC TIDE) OF MINIMUM PRESSURE A LITTLE MORE THAN 30 KM
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER; SUGGESTING THAT THE ESTIMATED PRESSURE MAY
BE A LITTLE TOO LOW.

ENALA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TRACK UNTIL LATE TONIGHT, GUIDED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERE HIGH
GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
STARTING TOMORROW, ENALA SHOULD BEGIN A HALF-TURN ON A SLOW TRACK IN
A GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION THAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL MID-WEEK.
DURING THIS PERIOD THE DIRECTING FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE
LOWER LEVELS AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. ENALA SHOULD THEN BE ON THE
NORTHWEST TO WEST SIDE OF A LOW LEVELS RIDGE, AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ABSORB IT IN THE SECOND PART OF THE
WEEK. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. IF THE GLOBAL PHILOSOPHY OF THE FORECAST IS
SHARED BY ALL THE MODELS, THERE ARE VARIATIONS FROM ONE MODEL TO
ANOTHER ON THE PRECISE COURSE OF THE SCENARIO, LEADING TO A STILL
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON THE FORECAST BEYOND D+2.

CONCERNING THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM, IT IS THE STATUS-QUO. THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MIXED AND CHANGE LITTLE AROUND ENALA,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL WHICH IS LESS IMPORTANT
THAN IN THE LAST FEW HOURS, BUT WITH A SEA TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 26 AND
24AOC. THE SHEAR SHOULD ALSO REMAIN REASONABLE UNTIL MONDAY, WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. IN THESE CONDITIONS,
ENALA SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY WHILE KEEPING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS FOR A LONGER TIME (ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF SYMMETRY).
FROM TUESDAY EVENING, THE LAST GFS/00Z AND IFS/18Z RUNS SIMULATE
EXPLICITLY A BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH THE JET AND A POSSIBLE
RE-NTENSIFICATION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN LOSE ITS
PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

ENALA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO LAND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 260624
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/02/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 26/02/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.1 S / 67.4 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/26 AT 18 UTC:
28.8 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/27 AT 06 UTC:
29.0 S / 66.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 260028
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/8/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 26/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 27.3 S / 67.7 E
(VINGT SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 295 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/02/2023 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SO: 175 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 75

24H: 27/02/2023 00 UTC: 28.9 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SO: 100 NO: 85

36H: 27/02/2023 12 UTC: 28.7 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SO: 140 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 85

48H: 28/02/2023 00 UTC: 27.9 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 75

60H: 28/02/2023 12 UTC: 27.3 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 75

72H: 01/03/2023 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/03/2023 00 UTC: 28.2 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 100

120H: 03/03/2023 00 UTC: 32.5 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, SE
DISSIPANT
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 280 SO: 195 NO: 150

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5-

ENALA A GARDE UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE, AVEC UN CENTRE DE BASSES
COUCHES SEMI EXPOSE EN BORDURE NORD DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE, DONT
LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE SONT GRADUELLEMENT RECHAUFFES DEPUIS 23UTC. LA
PASSE AMSR-2 DE 2022Z A PERMIS DE RECALER LA POSITION DU CENTRE DU
SYSTEME ET CONFIRME UNE CONVECTION PRINCIPALE RELEGUEE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD DE LA CIRCULATION. L'INTENSITE D'ENALA A ETE
LEGEREMENT REVUE A LA BAISSE D'APRES L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE,
SUPPORTEE PAR L'ANALYSE DES AGENCES AMERICAINES (KNES / PGTW) ET DE
L'A VOLUTION RA CENTE DES DONNEES DE L'ADT/AIDT/SATCON.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT POUR ENALA DEPUIS LES 6 DERNIERES HEURES : LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE RESTE CISAILLEE AVEC UN CENTRE DE BASSES
COUCHES QUI PERSISTE A RESTER SUR LA BORDURE NORD DE LA CONVECTION
PROFONDE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE PRESENTE TOUJOURS UN DT DE 3.5
SUGGERANT AINSI TOUJOURS DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE AU SEIN DE LA
CIRCULATION. CETTE ESTIMATION EST TOUTEFOIS LEGEREMENT SUPERIEURE AUX
DERNIERES GUIDANCES OBJECTIVES, CE QUI POURRAIT ETRE UN PEU
CONSERVATEUR. LE PASSAGE DE L'ASCAT PARTIELLE A 1725Z (EN BORDURE DE
FAUCHEE) NE PERMETTANT PAS D'OBTENIR UNE INFORMATION SATISFAISANTE.

LES MODELES NUMERIQUES PRESENTENT TOUJOURS UNE DISPERSION ASSEZ
IMPORTANTE AU DELA DES 48 PROCHAINES HEURES. ENALA DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE
GLOBALEMENT UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD- OUEST JUSQU'EN FIN
DE WEEK-END, GUIDE PAR UNE CELLULE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE SITUE A L'EST IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE ENALA DEVRAIT RALENTIR SA COURSE ET ENTAMER UN COURT DEMI
TOUR EN L'ABSENCE DE FLUX, RENDU POSSIBLE PAR SON DEPLACEMENT SOUS UN
TALWEG D'ALTITUDE. SUR CETTE COURTE PERIODE (DIMANCHE / LUNDI), LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS AVOIR UNE TRAJECTOIRE LENTE, VOIRE
QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ET ERRATIQUE. LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES PLAIDENT
DESORMAIS VERS UN RECOURBEMENT DE LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME VERS LE
NORD ENTRE LUNDI ET MERCREDI SOUS L'EFFET DU GONFLEMENT D'UNE DORSALE
A L'OUEST, AVANT UN RETOUR PROGRESSIF EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST A
L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG, AMENANT ENALA VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES OU
ELLE DEVRAIT SE DISSOUDRE AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION GENERALE. LA
PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPRIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES, DONT LA DISPERSION RESTE IMPORTANTE DEPUIS
PLUSIEURS RESEAUX, INDUISANT UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE
DU SYSTEME.

CONCERNANT L' INTENSITE DU SYSTEME, C'EST LE STATU-QUO. LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT MIXTES ET EVOLUENT PEU AUX
ALENTOURS DE ENALA, A L'EXCEPTION DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE MOINS
IMPORTANT QUE CES DERNIERERES HEURES, MAIS AVEC TOUTEFOIS UNE
TEMPERATURE DE LA MER COMPRISE ENTRE 26 ET 24AOC. LE CISAILLEMENT
DEVRAIT EGALEMENT RESTER RAISONNABLE JUSQU'A MARDI, AVEC LE
DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME SOUS LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE. DANS CES
CONDITIONS, L'INTENSITE DE ENALA DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR EN INTENSITE
TOUT EN GARDANT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES PLUS LONGTEMPS
(NOTAMMENT EN TERMES DE SYMETRIE). A PLUS LONGUES ECHEANCES, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT FAIBLIR SANS PRESENTER UNE FRANCHE MIGRATION VERS UN
SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL, SOUS L'EFFET DU RENFORCEMENT PROGRESSIF DU
CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE.

ENALA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 260028
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/8/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/26 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.3 S / 67.7 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/26 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 75

24H: 2023/02/27 00 UTC: 28.9 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 85

36H: 2023/02/27 12 UTC: 28.7 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 85

48H: 2023/02/28 00 UTC: 27.9 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 75

60H: 2023/02/28 12 UTC: 27.3 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 75

72H: 2023/03/01 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/02 00 UTC: 28.2 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 100

120H: 2023/03/03 00 UTC: 32.5 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DISSIPATING
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 150

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5-

ENALA HAS MAINTAINED A SHEARED PATTERN, WITH A SEMI-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, WHOSE CLOUD TOPS
HAVE GRADUALLY WARMED SINCE 23UTC. THE 2022Z AMSR-2 PASS HAS ALLOWED
TO REALIGN THE POSITION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER AND CONFIRMS A MAIN
CONVECTION RELEASED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.
ENALA INTENSITY HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY REVISED DOWNWARDS ACCORDING TO THE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS, SUPPORTED BY THE ANALYSIS OF THE AMERICAN
AGENCIES (KNES / PGTW) AND THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF THE ADT/AID/SATCON
DATA.

THE NUMERICAL MODELS STILL SHOW A RATHER IMPORTANT DISPERSION BEYOND
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENALA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARDS UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEKEND, GUIDED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERE HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL
CELL LOCATED IMMEDIATELY SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, ENALA SHOULD SLOW DOWN ITS COURSE AND START A SHORT TURN
IN THE ABSENCE OF MAJOR FLOW, MADE POSSIBLE BY ITS DISPLACEMENT UNDER
AN UPPER TROUGH. DURING THIS SHORT PERIOD (SUNDAY / MONDAY), THE
SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE A SLOW MOVEMENT, EVEN QUASI-STATIONARY AND
ERRATIC. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONFIRMS A BENDING OF THE SYSTEM'S TRACK
TOWARDS THE NORTH BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER THE EFFECT OF
THE SWELLING OF A RIDGE TO THE WEST, BEFORE A PROGRESSIVE RETURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IN FRONT OF A TROUGH, BRINGING ENALA TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES WHERE IT SHOULD DISSOLVE WITHIN THE GENERAL
CIRCULATION. THE CMRS FORECAST IS BASED ON A RANGE OF THE BEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WHOSE DISPERSION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT FOR SEVERAL
NETWORKS, LEADING TO A HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON THE SYSTEM'S TRACK.

IN TERMS OF SYSTEM INTENSITY, IT IS THE STATUS-QUO. THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN MIXED AND CHANGE LITTLE AROUND ENALA, EXCEPT FOR
THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL LESS IMPORTANT THAN IN THE LAST HOURS, BUT WITH
A SEA TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 26 AND 24AOC. THE SHEAR SHOULD ALSO REMAIN
REASONABLE UNTIL TUESDAY, WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, ENALA SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY WHILE KEEPING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME (ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF SYMMETRY). ON LONGER TIME
SCALES, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN WITHOUT SHOWING A CLEAR MIGRATION
TOWARDS A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE PROGRESSIVE
STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER SHEAR.

ENALA DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO LAND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 260012
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/02/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 26/02/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.3 S / 67.7 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 230 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/26 AT 12 UTC:
28.4 S / 66.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/27 AT 00 UTC:
28.9 S / 65.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 26.3S 67.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.3S 67.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 27.4S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 28.1S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 28.3S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 27.9S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 27.6S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 67.7E.
25FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 692
NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260900Z AND 262100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 251831
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/8/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 25/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.6 S / 67.8 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SO: 165 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/02/2023 06 UTC: 28.0 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SO: 175 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SO: 120 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

24H: 26/02/2023 18 UTC: 28.5 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 100 NO: 65

36H: 27/02/2023 06 UTC: 28.9 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 85 NO: 85

48H: 27/02/2023 18 UTC: 28.0 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 85 NO: 75

60H: 28/02/2023 06 UTC: 27.2 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 75

72H: 28/02/2023 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/03/2023 18 UTC: 27.3 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 120 NO: 0

120H: 02/03/2023 18 UTC: 30.0 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=3.5

PEU DE CHANGEMENT POUR ENALA DEPUIS LES 6 DERNIERES HEURES : LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE RESTE CISAILLEE AVEC UN CENTRE DE BASSES
COUCHES QUI PERSISTE A RESTER SUR LA BORDURE NORD DE LA CONVECTION
PROFONDE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE PRESENTE TOUJOURS UN DT DE 3.5
SUGGERANT AINSI TOUJOURS DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE AU SEIN DE LA
CIRCULATION. CETTE ESTIMATION EST TOUTEFOIS LEGEREMENT SUPERIEURE AUX
DERNIERES GUIDANCES OBJECTIVES, CE QUI POURRAIT ETRE UN PEU
CONSERVATEUR. LE PASSAGE DE L'ASCAT PARTIELLE A 1725Z (EN BORDURE DE
FAUCHEE) NE PERMETTANT PAS D'OBTENIR UNE INFORMATION SATISFAISANTE.

LES MODELES NUMERIQUES PRESENTENT TOUJOURS UNE DISPERSION ASSEZ
IMPORTANTE AU DELA DES 48 PROCHAINES HEURES. ENALA DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE
GLOBALEMENT UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD- OUEST JUSQU'EN FIN
DE WEEK-END, GUIDE PAR UNE CELLULE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE SITUE A L'EST IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE ENALA DEVRAIT RALENTIR SA COURSE ET ENTAMER UN COURT DEMI
TOUR EN L'ABSENCE DE FLUX, RENDU POSSIBLE PAR SON DEPLACEMENT SOUS UN
TALWEG D'ALTITUDE. SUR CETTE COURTE PERIODE (DIMANCHE / LUNDI), LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS AVOIR UNE TRAJECTOIRE LENTE, VOIRE
QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ET ERRATIQUE. LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES PLAIDENT
DESORMAIS VERS UN RECOURBEMENT DE LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME VERS LE
NORD ENTRE LUNDI ET MERCREDI SOUS L'EFFET DU GONFLEMENT D'UNE DORSALE
A L'OUEST, AVANT UN RETOUR PROGRESSIF EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST A
L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG, AMENANT ENALA VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES OU
ELLE DEVRAIT SE DISSOUDRE AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION GENERALE. LA
PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPRIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES, DONT LA DISPERSION RESTE IMPORTANTE DEPUIS
PLUSIEURS RESEAUX, INDUISANT UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE
DU SYSTEME.

CONCERNANT L' INTENSITE DU SYSTEME, C'EST LE STATU-QUO. LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT MIXTES ET EVOLUENT PEU AUX
ALENTOURS DE ENALA, A L'EXCEPTION DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE QUI VA SE
TARIR ASSEZ FRANCHEMENT DES CE SOIR.LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT EGALEMENT
RESTER RAISONNABLE JUSQU'A MARDI, AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME SOUS
LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE. DANS CES CONDITIONS, L'INTENSITE DE ENALA
DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR ET MAINTENIR SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES
PLUS LONGTEMPS. A PLUS LONGUES ECHEANCES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT FAIBLIR
SANS PRESENTER UNE FRANCHE MIGRATION VERS UN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL.

ENALA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 251831
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/8/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/25 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.6 S / 67.8 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/26 06 UTC: 28.0 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

24H: 2023/02/26 18 UTC: 28.5 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 65

36H: 2023/02/27 06 UTC: 28.9 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 85

48H: 2023/02/27 18 UTC: 28.0 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 75

60H: 2023/02/28 06 UTC: 27.2 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 75

72H: 2023/02/28 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/01 18 UTC: 27.3 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 120 NW: 0

120H: 2023/03/02 18 UTC: 30.0 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=3.5

LITTLE CHANGE FOR ENALA SINCE THE LAST 6 HOURS : THE CLOUD PATTERN
REMAINS SHEARED WITH A LOW LEVEL CENTER THAT PERSISTS TO STAY ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS
STILL SHOWS A DT OF 3.5 SUGGESTING STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE
CIRCULATION. THIS ESTIMATE IS HOWEVER SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE LAST
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE, WHICH MIGHT BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. THE PASSAGE OF
THE PARTIAL ASCAT AT 1725Z (ON THE EDGE OF THE SWATH) DOES NOT ALLOW
TO OBTAIN SATISFACTORY INFORMATION.

NUMERICAL MODELS STILL SHOW A RATHER IMPORTANT DISPERSION BEYOND THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ENALA SHOULD MOVE SOUTH-WESTWARD UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEKEND, GUIDED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERE HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED
TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK,
ENALA SHOULD SLOW DOWN ITS COURSE AND START A SHORT TURN IN THE
ABSENCE OF FLOW, MADE POSSIBLE BY ITS DISPLACEMENT UNDER AN UPPER
TROUGH. DURING THIS SHORT PERIOD (SUNDAY / MONDAY), THE SYSTEM SHOULD
HAVE A SLOW TRAJECTORY, EVEN QUASI-STATIONARY AND ERRATIC. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE NOW SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEND NORTHWARDS BETWEEN
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE SWELLS TO THE WEST, BEFORE GRADUALLY
RETURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A TROUGH, TAKING ENALA TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES WHERE IT SHOULD DISSOLVE INTO THE GENERAL
CIRCULATION. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A RANGE OF THE BEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WHOSE DISPERSION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT FOR SEVERAL
NETWORKS, LEADING TO A HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON THE SYSTEM'S TRACK.

CONCERNING THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM, IT IS THE STATUS-QUO. THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MIXED AND EVOLVE LITTLE AROUND ENALA,
EXCEPT FOR THE OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL WHICH WILL DRY UP QUITE FRANKLY
FROM THIS EVENING. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALSO REMAIN
REASONABLE UNTIL TUESDAY, WITH THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM UNDER
THE UPPER TROUGH. IN THESE CONDITIONS, THE INTENSITY OF ENALA SHOULD
BE MAINTAINED AND KEEP ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR A LONGER
TIME. ON LONGER TIME SCALES, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN WITHOUT SHOWING
A CLEAR MIGRATION TOWARDS A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM.

ENALA DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO LAND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 251816
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/02/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 25/02/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.6 S / 67.8 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 125 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/26 AT 06 UTC:
28.0 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/26 AT 18 UTC:
28.5 S / 65.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 251252
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/8/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 25/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.6 S / 68.5 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SO: 270 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SO: 195 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/02/2023 00 UTC: 27.3 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 85

24H: 26/02/2023 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 27/02/2023 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 85

48H: 27/02/2023 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 85

60H: 28/02/2023 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 95

72H: 28/02/2023 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/03/2023 12 UTC: 27.4 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 205 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 0

120H: 02/03/2023 12 UTC: 29.3 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 120 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5- CI=3.5

PAS DE CHANGEMENT POUR ENALA DEPUIS LES 6 DERNIERES HEURES : LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE RESTE CISAILLEE AVEC UN CENTRE DE BASSES
COUCHES QUI SE SITUE MAINTENANT SOUS LA BORDURE NORD DE LA CONVECTION
PROFONDE, CONFIRME PAR LES DERNIERES DONNEES GCOM DE 0944UTC.
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST UN PEU PLUS ETALEE VERS LE QUADRANT SUD.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE JUSQU'A MARDI. LA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR JUSQU'A LUNDI
GUIDEE ENTRE LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX SITUES A L'EST DU
SYSTEME D'UNE PART, ET UN FAIBLE TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI
FAVORISE LA DESCENTE DU SYSTEME VERS LE SUD, D'AUTRE PART. EN DEBUT
DE SEMAINE, DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES PUIS UNE SITUATION DE
COL BAROMETRIQUE DEVRAIT EMPECHER ENALA DE S'EVACUER VERS LES
LATITUDES TEMPEREES. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS AVOIR UNE TRAJECTOIRE
LENTE, VOIRE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ET ERRATIQUE. LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES
SEMBLENT OPTER POUR UNE EVACUATION VERS LE SUD-EST LORS DE SA PHASE
DE DISSIPATION MERCREDI-JEUDI.

LA AUSSI POUR LES INTENSITES, C'EST LE STATU-QUO. LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES EVOLUENT PEU AUX ALENTOURS DE ENALA, A L'EXCEPTION
DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE QUI VA FAIBLIR PLUS FRANCHEMENT DES LA FIN DE
JOURNEE DE SAMEDI. DANS CES CONDITIONS, L'INTENSITE DE ENALA DEVRAIT
SE MAINTENIR AVEC QUELQUES PERIODES DE RE-INTENSIFICATION FAIBLE DU
FAIT DE LA DYNAMIQUE D'ALTITUDE TRANSITANT A PROXIMITE D'ENALA.
BOOSTEE PAR CES EFFETS, ENALA POURRAIT MAINTENIR CES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES PLUS LONGTEMPS.

A PLUS LONGUES ECHEANCES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT FAIBLIR SANS PRESENTER
UNE FRANCHE MIGRATION VERS UN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL.

ENALA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 251252
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/8/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.6 S / 68.5 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/26 00 UTC: 27.3 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 85

24H: 2023/02/26 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2023/02/27 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 85

48H: 2023/02/27 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 85

60H: 2023/02/28 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 95

72H: 2023/02/28 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/01 12 UTC: 27.4 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 205 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 0

120H: 2023/03/02 12 UTC: 29.3 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5- CI=3.5

NO CHANGE FOR ENALA SINCE THE LAST 6 HOURS : THE CLOUD PATTERN
REMAINS SHEARED WITH A LOW LEVEL CENTER LOCATED UNDER THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, CONFIRMED BY THE LAST DATA GCOM OF
0944UTC. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SPREAD A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT.

LITTLE CHANGE ON THE TRACK FORECAST UNTIL TUESDAY. THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY,
GUIDED BETWEEN THE HIGH SUBTROPICAL GEOPOTENTIALS LOCATED EAST OF THE
SYSTEM ON THE ONE HAND, AND A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH THAT FAVORS
THE SYSTEM'S DESCENT SOUTHWARD ON THE OTHER. THIS WEEKEND,
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS AND THEN A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION
SHOULD PREVENT ENALA FROM EVACUATING TOWARDS THE MID LATITUDES. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN HAVE A SLOW OR EVEN QUASI-STATIONARY AND ERRATIC
TRACK. THE LAST GUIDELINES SEEM TO OPT FOR AN EVACUATION TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST DURING ITS DISSIPATION PHASE.

ALSO FOR THE INTENSITIES, LITTLE CHANGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CHANGING LITTLE IN THE VICINITY OF ENALA, EXCEPT FOR THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL WHICH WILL WEAKEN MORE MARKEDLY ON SUNDAY. UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS, THE INTENSITY OF ENALA SHOULD BE MAINTAINED WITH SOME
PERIODS OF WEAK RE-INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE DYNAMICS OF ALOFT
TRANSITING NEAR ENALA. BOOSTED BY THESE EFFECTS, ENALA COULD MAINTAIN
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR LONGER.

ON LONGER TIME SCALES, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN WITHOUT SHOWING A
CLEAR MIGRATION TO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM.

ENALA DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO LAND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 251203
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/02/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 25/02/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.6 S / 68.5 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 145 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/26 AT 00 UTC:
27.3 S / 67.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/26 AT 12 UTC:
28.2 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 25.0S 68.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 68.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 26.5S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 27.7S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 28.4S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 28.7S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 28.4S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 68.4E.
25FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 691 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
252100Z AND 260900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 250619
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/8/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 25/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.0 S / 68.7 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 140 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/02/2023 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65

24H: 26/02/2023 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 26/02/2023 18 UTC: 28.8 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 65

48H: 27/02/2023 06 UTC: 28.9 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 85

60H: 27/02/2023 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 95

72H: 28/02/2023 06 UTC: 28.0 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/03/2023 06 UTC: 27.9 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 230 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 0

120H: 02/03/2023 06 UTC: 29.5 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

PAS DE CHANGEMENT POUR ENALA DEPUIS LES 6 DERNIERES HEURES : LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE RESTE CISAILLEE AVEC UN CENTRE DE BASSES
COUCHES TOUJOURS VISIBLE SITUE EN BORDURE NORD DE LA CONVECTION
PROFONDE, MAIS QUI SEMBLE VOULOIR A NOUVEAU ENTRER SOUS LA CONVECTION
SUR LES TOUTES DERNIERES IMAGES. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST UN PEU
PLUS ETALEE VERS LE QUADRANT SUD. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN CONFIGURATION
CISAILLEE SE MAINTIENT A 3.5 AVEC UNE ESTIMATION DE L'ORDRE DE 50KT,
CONFIRMEE PAR LES PASS SMAP ET SMOS DE 0112UTC ET 0128UTC.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE JUSQU'A MARDI. LA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR JUSQU'A LUNDI
GUIDEE ENTRE LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX SITUES A L'EST DU
SYSTEME D'UNE PART, ET UN FAIBLE TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI
FAVORISE LA DESCENTE DU SYSTEME VERS LE SUD, D'AUTRE PART. EN DEBUT
DE SEMAINE, DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES PUIS UNE SITUATION DE
COL BAROMETRIQUE DEVRAIT EMPECHER ENALA DE S'EVACUER VERS LES
LATITUDES TEMPEREES. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS AVOIR UNE TRAJECTOIRE
LENTE, VOIRE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ET ERRATIQUE. LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES
SEMBLENT OPTER POUR UNE EVACUATION VERS LE SUD-EST LORS DE SA PHASE
DE DISSIPATION MERCREDI-JEUDI.

LA AUSSI POUR LES INTENSITES, C'EST LE STATU-QUO. LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES EVOLUENT PEU AUX ALENTOURS DE ENALA, A L'EXCEPTION
DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE QUI VA FAIBLIR PLUS FRANCHEMENT DDES LA FIN DE
JOURNEE DE SAMEDI. DANS CES CONDITIONS, L'INTENSITE DE ENALA DEVRAIT
SE MAINTENIR AVEC QUELQUES PERIODES DE RE-INTENSIFICATION FAIBLE DU
FAIT DE LA DYNAMIQUE D'ALTITUDE TRANSITANT A PROXIMITE D'ENALA.
BOOSTEE PAR CES EFFETS, ENALA POURRAIT MAINTENIR CES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES PLUS LONGTEMPS. A PLUS LONGUES ECHEANCES, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT FAIBLIR SANS PRESENTER UNE FRANCHE MIGRATION VERS UN SYSTEME
POST-TROPICAL.

ENALA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 250619
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/8/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/25 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.0 S / 68.7 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/25 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

24H: 2023/02/26 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2023/02/26 18 UTC: 28.8 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 65

48H: 2023/02/27 06 UTC: 28.9 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 85

60H: 2023/02/27 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 95

72H: 2023/02/28 06 UTC: 28.0 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/01 06 UTC: 27.9 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 230 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 0

120H: 2023/03/02 06 UTC: 29.5 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

NO CHANGE FOR ENALA SINCE THE LAST 6 HOURS : THE CLOUD PATTERN
REMAINS SHEARED WITH A LOW LEVEL CENTER STILL VISIBLE AT THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, BUT WHICH SEEMS TO WANT TO ENTER AGAIN
UNDER THE CONVECTION ON THE LATEST IMAGES. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HAS SPREAD A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. THE DVORAK
ANALYSIS IN SHEARED CONFIGURATION REMAINS AT 3.5 WITH AN ESTIMATE OF
ABOUT 50KT, CONFIRMED BY THE SMAP AND SMOS PASSES OF 0112UTC AND
0128UTC.

LITTLE CHANGE ON THE TRACK FORECAST UNTIL TUESDAY. THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY,
GUIDED BETWEEN THE HIGH SUBTROPICAL GEOPOTENTIALS LOCATED EAST OF THE
SYSTEM ON THE ONE HAND, AND A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH THAT FAVORS
THE SYSTEM'S DESCENT SOUTHWARD ON THE OTHER. THIS WEEKEND,
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS AND THEN A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION
SHOULD PREVENT ENALA FROM EVACUATING TOWARDS THE MID LATITUDES. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN HAVE A SLOW OR EVEN QUASI-STATIONARY AND ERRATIC
TRACK. THE LAST GUIDELINES SEEM TO OPT FOR AN EVACUATION TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST DURING ITS DISSIPATION PHASE.

ALSO FOR THE INTENSITIES, LITTLE CHANGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CHANGING LITTLE IN THE VICINITY OF ENALA, EXCEPT FOR THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL WHICH WILL WEAKEN MORE MARKEDLY ON SUNDAY. UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS, THE INTENSITY OF ENALA SHOULD BE MAINTAINED WITH SOME
PERIODS OF WEAK RE-INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE DYNAMICS OF ALOFT
TRANSITING NEAR ENALA. BOOSTED BY THESE EFFECTS, ENALA COULD MAINTAIN
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR LONGER. ON LONGER TIME SCALES, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN WITHOUT SHOWING A CLEAR MIGRATION TO A
POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM.

ENALA DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO LAND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 250606
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/02/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 25/02/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.0 S / 68.7 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/25 AT 18 UTC:
26.9 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/26 AT 06 UTC:
28.1 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 250028 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/8/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 25/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.3 S / 69.1 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/02/2023 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 26/02/2023 00 UTC: 27.9 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 26/02/2023 12 UTC: 29.0 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 95

48H: 27/02/2023 00 UTC: 29.4 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 85

60H: 27/02/2023 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 95

72H: 28/02/2023 00 UTC: 28.7 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 100

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/03/2023 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 240 NO: 95

120H: 02/03/2023 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

PAS DE CHANGEMENT POUR ENALA DEPUIS LES 6 DERNIERES HEURES : LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE RESTE CISAILLEE AVEC UN CENTRE DE BASSES
COUCHES TOUJOURS VISIBLE SITUE SUR LA PARTIE NORD A MOINS DE 30 MN DU
BORD DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST UN PEU
PLUS ETALEE VERS LE QUADRANT SUD. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN CONFIGURATION
CISAILLEE SE MAINTIENT A 3.5 AVEC UNE ESTIMATION DE L'ORDRE DE 50KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE JUSQU'A MARDI. LA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR JUSQU'A SAMEDI
GUIDEE ENTRE LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX SITUES A L'EST DU
SYSTEME D'UNE PART, ET UN FAIBLE TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI
FAVORISE LA DESCENTE DU SYSTEME VERS LE SUD, D'AUTRE PART. CE
WEEK-END, DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES PUIS UNE SITUATION DE
COL BAROMETRIQUE DEVRAIT EMPECHER ENALA DE S'EVACUER VERS LES
LATITUDES TEMPEREES. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS AVOIR UNE TRAJECTOIRE
LENTE, VOIRE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ET ERRATIQUE. LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES
SEMBLENT OPTER POUR UNE EVACUATION VERS LE SUD-EST LORS DE SA PHASE
DE DISSIPATION.

LA AUSSI POUR LES INTENSITES, C'EST LE STATU-QUO. LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES EVOLUENT PEU AUX ALENTOURS DE ENALA, A L'EXCEPTION
DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE QUI VA FAIBLIR PLUS FRANCHEMENT DIMANCHE. DANS
CES CONDITIONS, L'INTENSITE DE ENALA DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AVEC
QUELQUES PERIODES DE RE-INTENSIFICATION FAIBLE DU FAIT DE LA
DYNAMIQUE D'ALTITUDE TRANSITANT A PROXIMITE D'ENALA. BOOSTEE PAR CES
EFFETS, ENALA POURRAIT MAINTENIR CES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES PLUS
LONGTEMPS. A PLUS LONGUES ECHEANCES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT FAIBLIR SANS
PRESENTER UNE FRANCHE MIGRATION VERS UN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL.

ENALA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 250028 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/8/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/25 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3 S / 69.1 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/25 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2023/02/26 00 UTC: 27.9 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2023/02/26 12 UTC: 29.0 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 95

48H: 2023/02/27 00 UTC: 29.4 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 85

60H: 2023/02/27 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 95

72H: 2023/02/28 00 UTC: 28.7 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 100

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/01 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 240 NW: 95

120H: 2023/03/02 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

NO CHANGE FOR ENALA SINCE THE LAST 6 HOURS : THE CLOUD PATTERN
REMAINS SHEARED WITH A STILL VISIBLE LOW LEVEL CENTER LOCATED ON THE
NORTHERN PART LESS THAN 30 MN FROM THE EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SPREAD A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IN SHEARED CONFIGURATION IS MAINTAINED
AT 3.5 WITH AN ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 50KT.

LITTLE CHANGE ON THE TRACK FORECAST UNTIL TUESDAY. THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY,
GUIDED BETWEEN THE HIGH SUBTROPICAL GEOPOTENTIALS LOCATED EAST OF THE
SYSTEM ON THE ONE HAND, AND A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH THAT FAVORS
THE SYSTEM'S DESCENT SOUTHWARD ON THE OTHER. THIS WEEKEND,
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS AND THEN A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION
SHOULD PREVENT ENALA FROM EVACUATING TOWARDS THE MID LATITUDES. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN HAVE A SLOW OR EVEN QUASI-STATIONARY AND ERRATIC
TRACK. THE LAST GUIDELINES SEEM TO OPT FOR AN EVACUATION TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST DURING ITS DISSIPATION PHASE.

ALSO FOR THE INTENSITIES, LITTLE CHANGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CHANGING LITTLE IN THE VICINITY OF ENALA, EXCEPT FOR THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL WHICH WILL WEAKEN MORE MARKEDLY ON SUNDAY. UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS, THE INTENSITY OF ENALA SHOULD BE MAINTAINED WITH SOME
PERIODS OF WEAK RE-INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE DYNAMICS OF ALOFT
TRANSITING NEAR ENALA. BOOSTED BY THESE EFFECTS, ENALA COULD MAINTAIN
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR LONGER. ON LONGER TIME SCALES, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN WITHOUT SHOWING A CLEAR MIGRATION TO A
POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM.

ENALA DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO LAND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 250022
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/8/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 25/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.3 S / 69.1 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.5/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/02/2023 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 26/02/2023 00 UTC: 27.9 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 26/02/2023 12 UTC: 29.0 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 95

48H: 27/02/2023 00 UTC: 29.4 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 85

60H: 27/02/2023 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 95

72H: 28/02/2023 00 UTC: 28.7 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 100

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/03/2023 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 240 NO: 95

120H: 02/03/2023 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

PAS DE CHANGEMENT POUR ENALA DEPUIS LES 6 DERNIERES HEURES : LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE RESTE CISAILLEE AVEC UN CENTRE DE BASSES
COUCHES TOUJOURS VISIBLE SITUE SUR LA PARTIE NORD A MOINS DE 30 MN DU
BORD DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST UN PEU
PLUS ETALEE VERS LE QUADRANT SUD. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN CONFIGURATION
CISAILLEE SE MAINTIENT A 3.5 AVEC UNE ESTIMATION DE L'ORDRE DE 50KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE JUSQU'A MARDI. LA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR JUSQU'A SAMEDI
GUIDEE ENTRE LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX SITUES A L'EST DU
SYSTEME D'UNE PART, ET UN FAIBLE TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI
FAVORISE LA DESCENTE DU SYSTEME VERS LE SUD, D'AUTRE PART. CE
WEEK-END, DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES PUIS UNE SITUATION DE
COL BAROMETRIQUE DEVRAIT EMPECHER ENALA DE S'EVACUER VERS LES
LATITUDES TEMPEREES. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS AVOIR UNE TRAJECTOIRE
LENTE, VOIRE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ET ERRATIQUE. LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES
SEMBLENT OPTER POUR UNE EVACUATION VERS LE SUD-EST LORS DE SA PHASE
DE DISSIPATION.

LA AUSSI POUR LES INTENSITES, C'EST LE STATU-QUO. LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES EVOLUENT PEU AUX ALENTOURS DE ENALA, A L'EXCEPTION
DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE QUI VA FAIBLIR PLUS FRANCHEMENT DIMANCHE. DANS
CES CONDITIONS, L'INTENSITE DE ENALA DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AVEC
QUELQUES PERIODES DE RE-INTENSIFICATION FAIBLE DU FAIT DE LA
DYNAMIQUE D'ALTITUDE TRANSITANT A PROXIMITE D'ENALA. BOOSTEE PAR CES
EFFETS, ENALA POURRAIT MAINTENIR CES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES PLUS
LONGTEMPS. A PLUS LONGUES ECHEANCES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT FAIBLIR SANS
PRESENTER UNE FRANCHE MIGRATION VERS UN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL.

ENALA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 250022
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/8/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/25 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3 S / 69.1 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.5/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/25 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2023/02/26 00 UTC: 27.9 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2023/02/26 12 UTC: 29.0 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 95

48H: 2023/02/27 00 UTC: 29.4 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 85

60H: 2023/02/27 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 95

72H: 2023/02/28 00 UTC: 28.7 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 100

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/01 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 240 NW: 95

120H: 2023/03/02 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

NO CHANGE FOR ENALA SINCE THE LAST 6 HOURS : THE CLOUD PATTERN
REMAINS SHEARED WITH A STILL VISIBLE LOW LEVEL CENTER LOCATED ON THE
NORTHERN PART LESS THAN 30 MN FROM THE EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SPREAD A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IN SHEARED CONFIGURATION IS MAINTAINED
AT 3.5 WITH AN ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 50KT.

LITTLE CHANGE ON THE TRACK FORECAST UNTIL TUESDAY. THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY,
GUIDED BETWEEN THE HIGH SUBTROPICAL GEOPOTENTIALS LOCATED EAST OF THE
SYSTEM ON THE ONE HAND, AND A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH THAT FAVORS
THE SYSTEM'S DESCENT SOUTHWARD ON THE OTHER. THIS WEEKEND,
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS AND THEN A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION
SHOULD PREVENT ENALA FROM EVACUATING TOWARDS THE MID LATITUDES. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN HAVE A SLOW OR EVEN QUASI-STATIONARY AND ERRATIC
TRACK. THE LAST GUIDELINES SEEM TO OPT FOR AN EVACUATION TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST DURING ITS DISSIPATION PHASE.

ALSO FOR THE INTENSITIES, LITTLE CHANGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CHANGING LITTLE IN THE VICINITY OF ENALA, EXCEPT FOR THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL WHICH WILL WEAKEN MORE MARKEDLY ON SUNDAY. UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS, THE INTENSITY OF ENALA SHOULD BE MAINTAINED WITH SOME
PERIODS OF WEAK RE-INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE DYNAMICS OF ALOFT
TRANSITING NEAR ENALA. BOOSTED BY THESE EFFECTS, ENALA COULD MAINTAIN
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR LONGER. ON LONGER TIME SCALES, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN WITHOUT SHOWING A CLEAR MIGRATION TO A
POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM.

ENALA DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO LAND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 250002
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/02/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 25/02/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3 S / 69.1 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 10
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/25 AT 12 UTC:
26.5 S / 68.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/26 AT 00 UTC:
27.9 S / 67.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 23.4S 69.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 69.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.0S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 26.4S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 27.5S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 28.4S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 28.7S 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 00 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 28.6S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 28.4S 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 23.8S 69.2E.
24FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 708
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S
(FREDDY) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 241923
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/8/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 24/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.6 S / 69.5 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 984 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/02/2023 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

24H: 25/02/2023 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 65

36H: 26/02/2023 06 UTC: 28.6 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 26/02/2023 18 UTC: 29.3 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 85

60H: 27/02/2023 06 UTC: 29.6 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 95

72H: 27/02/2023 18 UTC: 29.0 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/02/2023 18 UTC: 28.2 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 55

120H: 01/03/2023 18 UTC: 29.8 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SO: 120 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE ENALA
EST RESTE CISAILLEE AVEC UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES BIEN VISIBLE
SITUE SUR LA PARTIE NORD A MOINS DE 30 MN DU BORD DE LA CONVECTION
PROFONDE. LES SOMMETS SE SONT TOUTEFOIS REFROIDIS AVEC UNE ACTIVITE
ELECTRIQUE ENCORE NOTABLE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN CONFIGURATION
CISAILLEE PERMET UN ESTIMATION DE L'ORDRE DE 50KT, ALORS QU'UNE PASSE
SMOS DONNAIT DES VALEURS DE 55KT 6 HEURES AUPARAVANT. ENALA RESTE
DONC UNE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE JUSQU'A MARDI. LA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR JUSQU'A SAMEDI
GUIDEE ENTRE LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX SITUES A L'EST DU
SYSTEME D'UNE PART, ET UN FAIBLE TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI
FAVORISE LA DESCENTE DU SYSTEME VERS LE SUD, D'AUTRE PART. CE
WEEK-END, DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES PUIS UNE SITUATION DE
COL BAROMETRIQUE DEVRAIT EMPECHER ENALA DE S'EVACUER VERS LES
LATITUDES TEMPEREES. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS AVOIR UNE TRAJECTOIRE
LENTE, VOIRE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ET ERRATIQUE. LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES
SEMBLENT OPTER POUR UNE EVACUATION VERS LE SUD-EST LORS DE SA PHASE
DE DISSIPATION.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES EVOLUENT PEU AUX ALENTOURS DE ENALA,
A L'EXCEPTION DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE QUI VA FAIBLIR PLUS FRANCHEMENT
DIMANCHE. DANS CES CONDITIONS, L'INTENSITE DE ENALA DEVRAIT SE
MAINTENIR AVEC QUELQUES PERIODES DE RE-INTENSIFICATION FAIBLE DU FAIT
DE LA DYNAMIQUE D'ALTITUDE TRANSITANT A PROXIMITE D'ENALA. BOOSTEE
PAR CES EFFETS, ENALA POURRAIT MAINTENIR CES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES PLUS LONGTEMPS. A PLUS LONGUES ECHEANCES, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT FAIBLIR SANS PRESENTER UNE FRANCHE MIGRATION VERS UN SYSTEME
POST-TROPICAL.

ENALA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 241923
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/8/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/24 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6 S / 69.5 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/25 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

24H: 2023/02/25 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 65

36H: 2023/02/26 06 UTC: 28.6 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2023/02/26 18 UTC: 29.3 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 85

60H: 2023/02/27 06 UTC: 29.6 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95

72H: 2023/02/27 18 UTC: 29.0 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/28 18 UTC: 28.2 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55

120H: 2023/03/01 18 UTC: 29.8 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 120 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE ENALA CLOUD PATTERN REMAINED SHEARED
WITH A PROMINENT LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN PART WITHIN
30 NM OF THE DEEP CONVECTION EDGE. THE TOPS HAVE HOWEVER COOLED DOWN
WITH A STILL NOTICEABLE ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IN
SHEARED CONFIGURATION ALLOWS AN ESTIMATION OF ABOUT 50KT, WHILE A
SMOS PASS GAVE VALUES OF 55KT 6 HOURS BEFORE. ENALA REMAINS A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM.

LITTLE CHANGE ON THE TRACK FORECAST UNTIL TUESDAY. THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY,
GUIDED BETWEEN THE HIGH SUBTROPICAL GEOPOTENTIALS LOCATED EAST OF THE
SYSTEM ON THE ONE HAND, AND A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH THAT FAVORS
THE SYSTEM'S DESCENT SOUTHWARD ON THE OTHER. THIS WEEKEND,
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS AND THEN A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION
SHOULD PREVENT ENALA FROM EVACUATING TOWARDS THE MID LATITUDES. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN HAVE A SLOW OR EVEN QUASI-STATIONARY AND ERRATIC
TRACK. THE LAST GUIDELINES SEEM TO OPT FOR AN EVACUATION TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST DURING ITS DISSIPATION PHASE.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CHANGING LITTLE IN THE VICINITY OF
ENALA, EXCEPT FOR THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL WHICH WILL WEAKEN MORE
MARKEDLY ON SUNDAY. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, THE INTENSITY OF ENALA
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED WITH SOME PERIODS OF WEAK RE-INTENSIFICATION DUE
TO THE DYNAMICS OF ALOFT TRANSITING NEAR ENALA. BOOSTED BY THESE
EFFECTS, ENALA COULD MAINTAIN ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR
LONGER. ON LONGER TIME SCALES, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN WITHOUT
SHOWING A CLEAR MIGRATION TO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM.

ENALA DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO LAND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 241817
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/02/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 24/02/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA) 984 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6 S / 69.5 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 25
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/25 AT 06 UTC:
25.8 S / 68.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/25 AT 18 UTC:
27.4 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 241248
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/8/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 24/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.7 S / 69.9 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/02/2023 00 UTC: 25.0 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 25/02/2023 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SO: 195 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 26/02/2023 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 195 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 26/02/2023 12 UTC: 29.0 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 27/02/2023 00 UTC: 29.5 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 27/02/2023 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/02/2023 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 55

120H: 01/03/2023 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0- CI=4.0-

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE ENALA RESTE CISAILLEE AVEC UN CENTRE DE
BASSES COUCHES BIEN VISIBLE SITUE A MOINS DE 30 MN DU BORD DE LA
CONVECTION PROFONDE. L'ANALYSE D'INTENSITE A 55 KT EST BASEE SUR LES
ESTIMATIONS DVORAK SUBJECTIVES (PGTW ET FMEE) ET OBJECTIVES (AIDT)
DISPONIBLES.

LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR JUSQU'A
SAMEDI GUIDEE ENTRE LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX SITUES A
L'EST DU SYSTEME D'UNE PART, ET UN FAIBLE TALWEG DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE QUI FAVORISE LA DESCENTE DU SYSTEME VERS LE SUD, D'AUTRE
PART. CE WEEK-END, DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES PUIS UN
ESITUATION DE COL DEVRAIT EMPECHER ENALA DE S'EVACUER VERS LES
LATITUDES TEMPEREES. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS AVOIR UNE TRAJECTOIRE
LENTE, VOIRE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE / ERRATIQUE AVANT DE DERIVER
LENTEMENT VERS LE NORD DANS SA PHASE DE DISSIPATION FINALE.

LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ASSOCIE AU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE NE
DEVRAIENT PAS FRANCHEMENT AUGMENTER D'ICI SAMEDI CE QUI DEVRAIT
LIMITER LA TENDANCE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT GRADUELLEMENT SE POSITIONNER SOUS UN TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE ET CONNAITRE UNE BAISSE DE CISAILLEMENT. DANS UN CONTEXTE
SIMILAIRE AU TRANSITION TROPICALE (INSTABILITE SOUS L'AIR FROID
D'ALTITUDE DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE MAIS POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE LIMITE), LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT REUSSIR A MAINTENIR DES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES
SUR L'EXTREME SUD DU DOMAINE TROPICAL. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE,
LE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST SE RENFORCE ET DEVRAIT AFFAIBLIR
DEFINITIVEMENT LE SYSTEME.

ENALA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 241248
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/8/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.7 S / 69.9 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/25 00 UTC: 25.0 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2023/02/25 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2023/02/26 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2023/02/26 12 UTC: 29.0 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2023/02/27 00 UTC: 29.5 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2023/02/27 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/28 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55

120H: 2023/03/01 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- CI=4.0-


THE ENALA CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS SHEARED WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER LOCATED LESS THAN 30 MN FROM THE EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS AT 55 KT IS BASED ON THE AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE
(PGTW AND FMEE) AND OBJECTIVE (AIDT) DVORAK ESTIMATES.

THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY,
GUIDED BETWEEN THE HIGH SUBTROPICAL GEOPOTENTIALS LOCATED EAST OF THE
SYSTEM ON THE ONE HAND, AND A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH THAT FAVORS
THE SYSTEM'S DESCENT SOUTHWARD ON THE OTHER. THIS WEEKEND,
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS AND THEN A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION
SHOULD PREVENT ENALA FROM EVACUATING TOWARDS THE MID LATITUDES. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN HAVE A SLOW OR EVEN QUASI-STATIONARY/ERRATIC TRACK
BEFORE DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARDS IN ITS FINAL DISSIPATION PHASE.

THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY SATURDAY, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
THE WEAKENING TREND. FROM SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY
POSITION ITSELF UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH AND EXPERIENCE A DECREASE IN
SHEAR. IN A CONTEXT SIMILAR TO TROPICAL TRANSITION (INSTABILITY UNDER
THE UPPER COLD AIR OF THE UPPER TROUGH BUT LIMITED OCEANIC
POTENTIAL), THE SYSTEM SHOULD SUCCEED IN MAINTAINING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH OF THE TROPICAL DOMAIN. AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE WESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND SHOULD
DEFINITIVELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.

ENALA DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO LAND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 241230
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/02/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 24/02/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.7 S / 69.9 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
350 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/25 AT 00 UTC:
25.0 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/25 AT 12 UTC:
26.7 S / 67.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 240757
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/8/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 24/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.0 S / 70.4 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 984 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/02/2023 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55

24H: 25/02/2023 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55

36H: 25/02/2023 18 UTC: 26.6 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55

48H: 26/02/2023 06 UTC: 27.7 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55

60H: 26/02/2023 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 195 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55

72H: 27/02/2023 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/02/2023 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 215 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 95

120H: 01/03/2023 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 85

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES
D'ENALA EST APPARU SUR LES IMAGES SATELLITAIRES, EN RAISON D'UN FORT
CISAILLEMENT DE MOYEN TROPOSPHERE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST, ESTIME A
25/30KT. LES DERNIA RES IMAGES MICRO-ONDE APPARUES PEU APRES 00Z
PRESENTENT UNE STRUCTURE INTERNE ERRODEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD,
CONFIRMANT AINSI L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT CONSTATE DE CES DERNIERES HEURES.
AU VU DE CES ELEMENTS RECENTS ET PAR INERTIE L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME A
ETE DECLASSEE AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE POUR 60KT.

LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR JUSQU'A
SAMEDI GUIDEE ENTRE LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX SITUES A
L'EST DU SYSTEME D'UNE PART, ET UN FAIBLE TALWEG DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE QUI FAVORISE LA DESCENTE DU SYSTEME VERS LE SUD, D'AUTRE
PART. CE WEEK-END, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT DESCENDRE EN BASSES COUCHES ET ORIENTER LA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS, PUIS DES FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES DEVRAIENT RENDRE LE DEPLACEMENT
QUASI-STATIONNAIRE A PARTIR DE LUNDI. L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION
DE TRAJECTOIRE AUGMENTE AU-DELA DE 48 HEURES, MARUQUEE PAR UNE
DIVERGENCE IMPORTANTE DES PREVISIONS D'ENSEMBLE (AMERICAINE ET
EUROPEENNE).LA PREVISION CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES DONT LA DISPERSION EST EN HAUSSE PAR
RAPPORT AUX RESEAUX PRECEDENTS, INDUISANT UNE PLUS FORTE INCERTITUDE
SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME AU-DELA DE LUNDI.

A PARTIR D'AUJOURD'HUI, LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-NORD-OUEST ASSOCIE AU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT PROVOQUER DES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC, D'OU UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDE
FRANC AU COURS DU WEEK-END, PUIS LE RESTE DE LA SEMAINE PROCHAINE.
UN PETIT REGAIN D'INTENSITE TEMPORAIRE POURRAIT ETRE POSSIBLE ENTRE
LUNDI ET MARDI ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME SERA QUASI-STATIONNAIRE A
L'APLOMB D'UN FAIBLE TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, PAR UN MECANISME
SIMILAIRE AUX CYCLOGENESES SUBTROPICALES (BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT
PERMETTANT UN REDEVELOPPEMENT DU COEUR CHAUD).

ENALA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 240757
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/8/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/24 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 70.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/24 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2023/02/25 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

36H: 2023/02/25 18 UTC: 26.6 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

48H: 2023/02/26 06 UTC: 27.7 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

60H: 2023/02/26 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

72H: 2023/02/27 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/28 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 95

120H: 2023/03/01 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 85

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=4.0+

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE ENALA LLC HAS APPEARED ON THE SATELLITE
IMAGES, DUE TO A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WSH PRESENT IN
MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERE, ESTIMATED AT 25/30KT. THE LAST MICROWAVE
IMAGES APPEARED SHORTLY AFTER 00Z, SHOW AN ERODED INTERNAL STRUCTURE
IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, CONFIRMING THE WEAKENING OBSERVED DURING
THE LAST HOURS. GIVEN THESE RECENT ELEMENTS AND BY INERTIA, THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM FOR 60KT.

THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY, GUIDED
BETWEEN THE HIGH SUBTROPICAL GEOPOTENTIALS LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM
ON THE ONE HAND, AND A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH THAT FAVORS THE
DESCENT OF THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH ON THE OTHER HAND. THIS WEEKEND,
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD GO DOWN IN
LOW LAYERS AND DIRECT THE TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST AT FIRST, THEN
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS SHOULD MAKE THE MOVEMENT
QUASI-STATIONARY FROM MONDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK FORECAST
INCREASES BEYOND 48 HOURS, MARKED BY A SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE OF THE
US AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. THE CMRS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, THE DISPERSION OF
WHICH HAS INCREASED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, LEADING TO A GREATER
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND MONDAY.

FROM TODAY, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR,
LEADING TO A MORE OR LESS RAPID WEAKENING FRANKLY DURING THE WEEKEND
AND THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. A SMALL TEMPORARY INCREASE IN INTENSITY
COULD BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL BE
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH, BY A MECHANISM
SIMILAR TO THE SUBTROPICAL CYCLOGENESES (DECREASE OF THE SHEAR
ALLOWING A REDEVELOPMENT OF THE WARM CORE).

ENALA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 22.1S 70.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 70.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 24.0S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.6S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 27.0S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 28.3S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 29.6S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 29.5S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 28.8S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 70.2E.
24FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 748
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
242100Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 240718
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/02/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 24/02/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA) 984 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 70.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/24 AT 18 UTC:
23.6 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/25 AT 06 UTC:
25.2 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 240131
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/8/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 24/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.9 S / 70.5 E
(VINGT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 31 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/02/2023 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 155 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

24H: 25/02/2023 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

36H: 25/02/2023 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

48H: 26/02/2023 00 UTC: 27.7 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SO: 175 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 45

60H: 26/02/2023 12 UTC: 28.8 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

72H: 27/02/2023 00 UTC: 29.4 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 95 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/02/2023 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 95

120H: 01/03/2023 00 UTC: 28.8 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SO: 195 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 85

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=4.5-

L'INTENSITE D'ENALA A ETE REVISEE A LA HAUSSE A POSTERIORI. LA PASSE
SMAP DE JEUDI 1343Z A 65KT, LES DONNEES ASCAT A 55KT, L'ALLURE DES
IMAGES MICRO-ONDES MONTRANT UNE STRUCTURE EN OEIL, ET UNE
CONFIGURATION A CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE EN IMAGERIE INFRAROUGE
DONNANT UN DT PROCHE DE 4.5 JEUDI APRES-MIDI ET SOIR, CONDUISENT A
ESTIMER L'INTENSITE A 65KT A 12 ET 18UTC. LA BEST-TRACK A ETE AMENDEE
EN CONSEQUENCE. ENTRE 18 ET 00UTC, LA CONVECTION A UN PEU DIMINUE ET
EST DEVENUE PLUS ASYMETRIQUE, SOUS L'EFFET DE LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT, CE QUI DONNE UN DT EN BAISSE A 4.0. LA PASSE
MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 DE 2049Z MONTRE UNE STRUCTURE EN OEIL ENCORE BIEN
DESSINEE EN 37GHZ MALGRE UNE FAIBLESSE DU COTE NORD SOUS L'EFFET DU
CISAILLEMENT. PAR INERTIE L'INTENSITE EST LAISSEE A 65KT. LA
TRAJECTOIRE ANALYSEE DU SYSTEME SE SITUE PLUS A L'EST QU'INITIALEMENT
PREVU ET AVEC UN DEPLACEMENT UN PEU PLUS RAPIDE. LE MODELE GFS SEMBLE
LE MIEUX CALE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE ET L'INTENSITE OBSERVEES.

LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR JUSQU'A
SAMEDI GUIDEE ENTRE LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX SITUES A
L'EST DU SYSTEME D'UNE PART, ET UN FAIBLE TALWEG DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE QUI FAVORISE LA DESCENTE DU SYSTEME VERS LE SUD, D'AUTRE
PART. CE WEEK-END, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT DESCENDRE EN BASSES COUCHES ET ORIENTER LA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS, PUIS DES FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES DEVRAIENT RENDRE LE DEPLACEMENT
QUASI-STATIONNAIRE A PARTIR DE LUNDI. L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE A PARTIR
DE LA DANS LES DIFFERENTES PREVISIONS.

A PARTIR DE CE VENDREDI ET SURTOUT SAMEDI, LE RENFORCEMENT DU
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-NORD-OUEST ASSOCIE AU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT
PROVOQUER DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC, D'OU UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS OU
MOINS RAPIDE FRANC AU COURS DU WEEK-END. LES GUIDANCES SONT TRES
DISPERSEES SUR CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT. CE DERNIER A ETE LIMITE DANS LA
PRESENTE PREVISION AFIN DE TENIR COMPTE DE LA MODELISATION
ACTUELLEMENT PERTINENTE DU MODELE GFS. UN PETIT REGAIN D'INTENSITE
TEMPORAIRE SEMBLE ENSUITE POSSIBLE ENTRE LUNDI ET MARDI ALORS QUE LE
SYSTEME SERA QUASI-STATIONNAIRE A L'APLOMB D'UN FAIBLE TALWEG DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, PAR UN MECANISME SIMILAIRE AUX CYCLOGENESES
SUBTROPICALES (BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT PERMETTANT UN REDEVELOPPEMENT
DU COEUR CHAUD).

ENALA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 240131
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/8/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/24 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 70.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 31 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/24 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

24H: 2023/02/25 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

36H: 2023/02/25 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

48H: 2023/02/26 00 UTC: 27.7 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45

60H: 2023/02/26 12 UTC: 28.8 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

72H: 2023/02/27 00 UTC: 29.4 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/28 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 95

120H: 2023/03/01 00 UTC: 28.8 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 85

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.5-

ENALA'S INTENSITY HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARDS AFTERHAND. THURSDAY'S
1343Z SMAP PASS AT 65KT, ASCAT DATA AT 55KT, THE EYE PATTERN ON
MICROWAVE IMAGES AND THE CDO PATTERN LEADING TO A DT CLOSE TO 4.5 ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LEAD TO ESTIMATE THE INTENSITY AT
65KT AT 12 AND 18UTC. THE BEST-TRACK HAS BEEN CORRECTED ACCORDINGLY.
BETWEEN 18 AND 00UTC, CONVECTION HAS DECREASED A BIT AND HAS BECOME
MORE ASYMMETRIC, DUE TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR, WHICH GIVES A DT DOWN
TO 4.0. THE 2049Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A STILL WELL-DEFINED EYE
STRUCTURE AT 37GHZ DESPITE A WEAKNESS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE DUE TO
SHEAR. BY INERTIA THE INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 65KT. THE SYSTEM'S
ANALYZED TRACK IS SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE EAST COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED. THE GFS MODEL
SEEMS TO BE THE BEST FIT TO THE OBSERVED TRACK AND INTENSITY.

ENALA'S SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY,
BETWEEN THE HIGH SUBTROPICAL GEOPOTENTIALS LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM
ON THE ONE HAND, AND A WEAK TUTT THAT FAVORS THE SOUTHWARD DESCENT OF
THE SYSTEM, ON THE OTHER HAND. THIS WEEKEND, WHILE THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD MOVE DOWN TO LOWER LEVELS AND DRIVE
THE SYSTEM A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH-WEST AT FIRST BEFORE STALLING FROM
MONDAY DUE TO CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. THE TRACK FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FROM THERE ON.

FROM FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY, INCREASING NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS, LEADING TO MORE OR LESS RAPID WEAKENING DURING THE
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE TEND TO DISAGREE ABOUT THIS WEAKENING. THE
WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN LIMITED IN THE PRESENT FORECAST IN ORDER TO
TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENTLY RELEVANT GFS SCENARIO. A SLIGHT
TEMPORARY REINTENSIFICATION SEEMS POSSIBLE BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY UNDER THE TUTT, BY A
MECHANISM SIMILAR TO THE SUBTROPICAL CYCLOGENESES (DECREASING SHEAR
ENABLING REBUILDING OF THE WARM CORE).

ENALA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 240040
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/02/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 24/02/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (ENALA) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 70.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/24 AT 12 UTC:
23.1 S / 69.2 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/25 AT 00 UTC:
25.1 S / 68.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 19.8S 71.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 71.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 21.7S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 23.4S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 24.8S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 25.8S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 27.9S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 28.3S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 28.2S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 70.9E.
23FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 778
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 231940
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/8/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 23/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.4 S / 70.9 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/02/2023 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SO: 140 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 24/02/2023 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SO: 120 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 75 NO: 65

36H: 25/02/2023 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 65

48H: 25/02/2023 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 65

60H: 26/02/2023 06 UTC: 26.3 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 130 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SO: 85 NO: 65

72H: 26/02/2023 18 UTC: 27.1 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/02/2023 18 UTC: 28.0 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 65

120H: 28/02/2023 18 UTC: 27.5 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 65

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'ENALA RESTE EN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE
AVEC UNE CONVECTION TOUJOURS VIGOUREUSE A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE. LES
PASSES ASCAT DE LA SOIREE CONFIRMENT QUE LE CENTRE EST ENCORE BIEN
PLACE SOUS LA MASSE NUAGEUSE CONVECTIVE ET INDIQUENT DES VENTS A
50/55KT (LES VENTS REELS SONT DONC SUPERIEURS). UNE PASSE SMAP A
1343Z A MESURE DES VENTS A 65KT. ENALA EST DONC A LA LIMITE ENTRE LE
STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ET LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.
L'INTENSITE A ETE MAINTENUE A 60KT A 18UTC, MAIS L'ANALYSE DES
DONNEES A POSTERIORI SEMBLE PLUTOT INDIQUER DES VENTS A 65KT POUR 12
ET 18UTC. L'INTENSITE MAXIMALE ANALYSEE D'ENALA SERA DONC REVUE A
65KT (T4.5-) DANS LA PROCHAINE MISE A JOUR DE LA BEST-TRACK. ENALA A
PROBABLEMENT ATTEINT SON PIC. LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST EST EN
HAUSSE, MAIS A ETE POUR LE MOMENT COMPENSE PAR UN DEPLACEMENT DU
SYSTEME A ENVIRON 10KT. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES SSMIS-F16 DE 1310Z
MONTRAIT UNE LEGERE DETERIORATION DE L'ANNEAU CENTRAL DU COTE
NORD-OUEST PAR RAPPORT A LA SSMIS-F18 DE 1108Z.

LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR JUSQU'A
SAMEDI GUIDEE ENTRE LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX SITUES A
L'EST DU SYSTEME D'UNE PART, ET UN FAIBLE TALWEG DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE QUI FAVORISE LA DESCENTE DU SYSTEME VERS LE SUD, D'AUTRE
PART. CE WEEK-END, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT DESCENDRE EN BASSES COUCHES ET ORIENTER LA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS. LUNDI PROCHAIN,
DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES VONT RALENTIR LE DEPLACEMENT
D'ENALA ET L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE A PARTIR DE LA DANS LES DIFFERENTES
PREVISIONS.

A PARTIR DE VENDREDI ET SURTOUT SAMEDI, LE RENFORCEMENT DU
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ASSOCIE AU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT
PROVOQUER DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC, D'OU UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS OU
MOINS RAPIDE PREVU AU COURS DU WEEK-END. LES GUIDANCES SONT TRES
DISPERSEES SUR CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT. LE CISAILLEMENT ASSOCIE AU TALWEG
PUIS LE PASSAGE DU MINIMUM SOUS LE TALWEG AINSI QU'UNE BAISSE DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE POURRAIENT D'UNE PART FAIRE PERDRE AU SYSTEME
CERTAINES DE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES MAIS AUSSI ENTRETENIR UN
PEU SON INTENSITE.

ENALA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 231940
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/8/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 70.9 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/24 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2023/02/24 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 120 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 75 NW: 65

36H: 2023/02/25 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 65

48H: 2023/02/25 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 65

60H: 2023/02/26 06 UTC: 26.3 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 65

72H: 2023/02/26 18 UTC: 27.1 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/27 18 UTC: 28.0 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 65

120H: 2023/02/28 18 UTC: 27.5 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

ENALA HAS KEPT A CDO PATTERN WITH STILL VIGOROUS CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER. THE EVENING ASCAT PASSES CONFIRM THAT THE CENTER IS STILL
WELL PLACED UNDER THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS AND INDICATE WINDS AT
50/55KT (REAL WINDS ARE THUS HIGHER). A 1343Z SMAP PASS MEASURED
WINDS AT 65KT. ENALA IS THUS AT THE LIMIT BETWEEN SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM STAGE AND TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LEFT
AT 60KT AT 18UTC, BUT FURTHER DATA ANALYSIS SEEMS TO INDICATE WINDS
CLOSER TO 65KT FOR 12 AND 18UTC. THE MAXIMUM ANALYZED INTENSITY OF
ENALA WILL THEREFORE BE REVISED TO 65KT (T4.5-) IN THE NEXT
BEST-TRACK UPDATE. ENALA HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS PEAK. NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING, BUT HAS BEEN COMPENSATED FOR THE MOMENT BY
THE SYSTEM'S FORWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 10KT. THE 1310Z SSMIS-F16
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHT DETERIORATION OF THE CENTRAL CORE ON
ITS NORTH-WEST SIDE COMPARED TO THE 1108 SSMIS-F18.

ENALA'S SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY,
GUIDED BETWEEN THE HIGH SUBTROPICAL GEOPOTENTIALS LOCATED EAST OF THE
SYSTEM ON THE ONE HAND, AND A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH THAT FAVORS
THE SOUTHWARD DESCENT OF THE SYSTEM, ON THE OTHER HAND. THIS WEEKEND,
WHILE THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD MOVE DOWN TO LOWER
LEVELS AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH-WEST AT FIRST. ON
MONDAY, CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS SHOULD SLOW ENALA'S MOVEMENT AND
THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FROM THERE ON.

FROM FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY, INCREASING NORTH-WESTERLY WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS, SO THAT A MORE OR LESS RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE TEND TO DISAGREE ABOUT THIS WEAKENING. THE
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH THEN THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW UNDER
THE TROUGH AS WELL AS A DECREASE OF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL COULD MAKE
THE SYSTEM LOSE SOME OF ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BUT ALSO
MAINTAIN A LITTLE ITS INTENSITY.

ENALA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 231825
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/02/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 23/02/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 70.9 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/24 AT 06 UTC:
21.1 S / 69.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/24 AT 18 UTC:
22.8 S / 68.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 231239
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/8/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 23/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.5 S / 71.5 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/02/2023 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 24/02/2023 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 65 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 25/02/2023 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 95 NO: 0

48H: 25/02/2023 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 205 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 0

60H: 26/02/2023 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 55

72H: 26/02/2023 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 140 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/02/2023 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 0

120H: 28/02/2023 12 UTC: 27.7 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SO: 195 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 55

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'ENALA
EST RESTEE DANS UNE STRUCTURE DE CDO AVEC DES SOMMETS SE
REFROIDISSANT. UNE AMORCE D'OEIL A ETE OBSERVEE SUR LES IMAGES
SATELLITES VISIBLES AVANT QUE LA STRUTURE EN CDO S'AFFRIME DE
NOUVEAU. LA PASSE MICRO-ONDE F18 DE 1108UTC PERMET DE CONFIRMER LA
LOCALISATION DU CENTRE ET NOTER UN PETITE FAIBLESSE DANS LA PARTIE
NORD DE LA CIRCULATION. LA VALEUR DE 60KT POUR LES VENTS ESTIMES PEUT
ETRE DONNEE PAR LA METHODE DE DVORAK. CELA LAISSE ENALA AU STADE DE
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE, QU'ELLE NE DEVRAIT PAS DEPASSER.

LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST ENTAMEE DEPUIS PEU DEVRAIT SE
MAINTENIR JUSQU'A SAMEDI GUIDEE ENTRE LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS
SUBTROPICAUX SITUES A L'EST DU SYSTEME D'UNE PART, ET UN FAIBLE
TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI FAVORISE LA DESCENTE DU SYSTEME
VERS LE SUD, D'AUTRE PART. CE WEEK-END, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
SYSTEME, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT DESCENDRE EN BASSES COUCHES ET
ORIENTER LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS.
AVANT L'EVACUATION DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS PRESENTS AU SUD-EST DU
SYSTEME, DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES VONT STOPPER LE
DEPLACEMENT D'ENALA A ECHEANCE DE LUNDI PROCHAIN. DANS CES
CONDIITONS, L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE DANS LES DIFFERENTES PREVISIONS
ENSEMBLISTES MAIS ON PEUT CONFIRMER QUE CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE AUCUNE
MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.

ACTUELLEMENT LES CONDITIONS SONT ENCORE FAVORABLES A UNE LEGERE
INTENSIFICATION. CEPENDANT A PARTIR DE VENDREDI ET SURTOUT SAMEDI, LE
RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ASSOCIE AU TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT PROVOQUER DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC PLUS MARQUE,
D'OU UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDE PREVU AU COURS DU
WEEK-END. LES GUIDANCES SONT TRES DISPERSEES SUR CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT
MAIS IL SEMBLE VRAISEMBLABLE QU'A ECHEANCE DE LUNDI LORS DU
RALENTISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LA DYNAMIQUE D'ALTITUDE ASSOCIEE AU
PASSAGE DU TALWEG ENTRAINE UNE REINTENSIFICATION D'ORIGINE BAROCLINE.
DANS CES CONDITIONS, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PERDRE CES CARACTERISTIQUES
PUREMENT TROPICALES ET MIGRER EN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL.

ENALA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 231239
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/8/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 71.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/24 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2023/02/24 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2023/02/25 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0

48H: 2023/02/25 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 205 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0

60H: 2023/02/26 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 55

72H: 2023/02/26 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/27 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2023/02/28 12 UTC: 27.7 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 195 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 55

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE ENALA CLOUD PATTERN REMAINED IN A CDO
STRUCTURE WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS. A BEGINNING OF AN EYE WAS OBSERVED
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES BEFORE THE CDO STRUCTURE COLLAPSED AGAIN.
THE F18 MICROWAVE PASS OF 1108UTC CONFIRMS THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER
AND NOTES A SMALL WEAKNESS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.
THE VALUE OF 60KT FOR THE ESTIMATED WINDS CAN BE GIVEN BY THE DVORAK
METHOD. THIS LEAVES ENALA AT THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM,
WHICH IT SHOULD NOT EXCEED.

THE TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THAT STARTED RECENTLY SHOULD
CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY, GUIDED BETWEEN THE HIGH SUBTROPICAL
GEOPOTENTIALS LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM ON THE ONE HAND, AND A WEAK
MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH THAT FAVORS THE DESCENT OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS
THE SOUTH ON THE OTHER HAND. THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD GO DOWN IN LOW LAYERS AND DIRECT THE
TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST AT FIRST. BEFORE THE EVACUATION OF THE
HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM,
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS WILL STOP THE MOVEMENT OF ENALA BY NEXT
MONDAY. IN THESE CONDITIONS, THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE
DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE FORECASTS BUT WE CAN CONFIRM THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES
NOT PRESENT ANY THREAT FOR THE INHABITED LANDS.

AT THE MOMENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, FROM FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY, THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH-WESTERN SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD PROVOKE INTRUSIONS OF MORE MARKED DRY AIR, HENCE A MORE
OR LESS RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND. THE GUIDELINES
ARE VERY DISPERSED ON THIS WEAKENING BUT IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT BY
MONDAY, WHEN THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN, THE UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A REINTENSIFICATION OF
BAROCLINIC ORIGIN. IN THESE CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE ITS
PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND MIGRATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL
SYSTEM.

ENALA DO NOT THREATEN THE INHABITED ISLANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 231201
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/02/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 23/02/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 71.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/24 AT 00 UTC:
20.2 S / 70.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/24 AT 12 UTC:
22.1 S / 69.2 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 17.3S 72.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 72.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.3S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.8S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.4S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 23.8S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 26.1S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 27.3S 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 28.8S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 71.7E.
23FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 613
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 230600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 230648
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/8/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 23/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.2 S / 71.9 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/02/2023 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 45

24H: 24/02/2023 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 100 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 45

36H: 24/02/2023 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 25/02/2023 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 25/02/2023 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 100 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 0

72H: 26/02/2023 06 UTC: 25.6 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/02/2023 06 UTC: 26.9 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

120H: 28/02/2023 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0.

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'ENALA A
PEU EVOLUEE CONSERVANT UNE STRUCTURE DE CDO. LE DEPLACEMENT DU
SYSTEME SEMBLE COMPENSER LA CONTRAINTE DE NORD A NORD-OUEST SUBIE PAR
LE SYSTEME.
LA PASSE MICRO-ONDE F17 DE 0210Z MONTRE UN OEIL FERME EN 85GHZ,
L'INTENSITE A ETE ESTIME A 55KT, INTENSITE CONFIRME PAR LES DONNEES
ASCAT DE 05UTC ET LA PASS SMOS DE 0108Z.

LA TRAJECTOIRE S'INCURVE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST ENTRE LES HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX QUI SE REPLIENT AU SUD-EST ET SE
PROLONGENT PAR UNE DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME, D'UNE PART, ET UN
FAIBLE TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI S'IMISCE DANS LA DORSALE AU
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, D'AUTRE PART.
CE WEEK-END, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR
DEVRAIT DESCENDRE EN BASSES COUCHES ET ORIENTER LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. MALGRE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR L'ORIENTATION EXACTE DE
LA TRAJECTOIRE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, LES PANACHES DES DIVERSES
PREVISIONS ENSEMBLISTES CONFIRMENT QUE CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE AUCUNE
MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.

AVEC PLUSIEURS INDICATEURS AU VERT (UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE POLAIRE
ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ENCORE TRES FAVORABLE POUR LES 12
PROCHAINES HEURES, MAIS EN BAISSE ENSUITE), LA CONTRAINTE EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE EGALEMENT VU PAR LES DERNIERS RUNS, QUI SEMBLE ETRE POUR
LE MOMENT LIMITEE PAR LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME, POURRAIT FINALEMENT
LIMITER LE DEVELOPPEMENT D'ENALA DES LA NUIT PROCHAINE.
A PARTIR DE VENDREDI ET SURTOUT SAMEDI, LE RENFORCEMENT DU
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ASSOCIE AU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT
CEPENDANT PROVOQUER DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC PLUS MARQUE, D'OU UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDE PREVU AU COURS DU WEEK-END. LES
GUIDANCES SONT TRES DISPERSEES SUR CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT.
CERTAINS MODELES PROPOSENT DES INTENSIFICATIONS EN FIN D'ECHEANCE
DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT MOINS CISAILLEE. TOUTEFOIS, LA LEGERE BAISSE DU
POTENTIEL ET SURTOUT L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ATTENDUE RENDE CE SCENARIO PEU
CREDIBLE POUR L'INSTANT. LA PREVISION DU CMRS N'EN TIENT PAS COMPTE A
L'HEURE ACTUELLE.

ENALA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 230648
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/8/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/23 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 71.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/23 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 45

24H: 2023/02/24 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 45

36H: 2023/02/24 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2023/02/25 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2023/02/25 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 0

72H: 2023/02/26 06 UTC: 25.6 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/27 06 UTC: 26.9 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

120H: 2023/02/28 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0.

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ENALA HAS CHANGED
LITTLE MAINTAINING A CDO STRUCTURE. THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
SEEMS TO COMPENSATE THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST CONSTRAINT SUFFERED BY THE
SYSTEM.
THE MICROWAVE PASS F17 OF 0210Z SHOWS A FIRM EYE IN 85GHZ, THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ESTIMATED AT 55KT, INTENSITY CONFIRMED BY THE
ASCAT DATA OF 05UTC AND THE SMOS PASS OF 0108Z.

THE SYSTEM IS HEADING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST, PROLONGED BY A
SECONDARY RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, AND A WEAK
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WEEKEND, WHILE THE
SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AND STEERING FLOW SHOULD RETURN TO LOWER LEVELS,
THE TRACK SHOULD SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXACT TRACK AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE FORECAST PLUMES CONFIRM THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.

WITH SEVERAL INDICATORS IN THE GREEN (A GOOD DIVERGENCE ON THE POLAR
COAST AND A STILL VERY FAVORABLE OCEANIC POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS, BUT DECREASING AFTERWARDS), THE CONSTRAINT IN THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE ALSO SEEN BY THE LAST RUNS, WHICH SEEMS TO BE LIMITED FOR
THE MOMENT BY THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, COULD FINALLY LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ENALA FROM NEXT NIGHT.
FROM FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
NORTH-WESTERN SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD HOWEVER
CAUSE INTRUSIONS OF MORE MARKED DRY AIR, HENCE A MORE OR LESS RAPID
WEAKENING EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GUIDELINES ARE VERY
SCATTERED ON THIS WEAKENING.
SOME MODELS PROPOSE INTENSIFICATIONS AT THE END OF THE RANGE IN A
LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, THE SLIGHT DROP IN POTENTIAL AND
ESPECIALLY THE EXPECTED WEAKENING MAKES THIS SCENARIO NOT VERY
CREDIBLE FOR THE MOMENT. THE CMRS FORECAST DOES NOT TAKE THIS INTO
ACCOUNT AT THIS TIME.

ENALA DO NOT THREATEN THE INHABITED ISLANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 230557
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/02/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 23/02/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 71.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/23 AT 18 UTC:
18.9 S / 70.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/24 AT 06 UTC:
20.6 S / 69.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 230120
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/8/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 23/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.4 S / 72.5 E
(SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/02/2023 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 110 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 55

24H: 24/02/2023 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 65

36H: 24/02/2023 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 25/02/2023 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 25/02/2023 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 65

72H: 26/02/2023 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/02/2023 00 UTC: 27.1 S / 63.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 0

120H: 28/02/2023 00 UTC: 27.6 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

DEPUIS 18Z, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'ENALA A PEU EVOLUE AVEC UNE
ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE PRINCIPALE PROCHE DU CENTRE DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-OUEST. LA PASSE MICRO-ONDE F18 DE 2235Z MONTRE UNE DEGRADATION DE
LA STRUCTURE INTERNE AVEC UNE IMPORTANTE FAIBLESSE DANS LE SECTEUR
NORD. EN ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES DU CIMSS, CETTE DEGRADATION DE LA
STRUCTURE EST PROBABLEMENT LIEE A UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE SECTEUR
NORD A NORD-OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENU A
40KT, MAIS CELA RESTE PEUT ETRE UN PEU CONSERVATEUR.


LA TRAJECTOIRE S'INCURVE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST ENTRE LES HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX QUI SE REPLIENT AU SUD-EST ET SE
PROLONGENT PAR UNE DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME, D'UNE PART, ET UN
FAIBLE TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI S'IMISCE DANS LA DORSALE AU
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, D'AUTRE PART. CE WEEK-END, AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT DESCENDRE EN
BASSES COUCHES ET ORIENTER LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST.
MALGRE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR L'ORIENTATION EXACTE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE, LES PANACHES DES DIVERSES PREVISIONS ENSEMBLISTES
CONFIRMENT QUE CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.

MALGRE PLUSIEURS INDICATEURS AU VERT (UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE
POLAIRE ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE FAVORABLE), LA PRESENCE D'UNE
CONTRAINTE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE EGALEMENT VU PAR LES DERNIERS RUNS
POURRAIT FINALEMENT LIMITER LE DEVELOPPEMENT D'ENALA DURANT LES
PROCHAINES 24H. UN PASSAGE AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICAL N'EST
CEPENDANT PAS EXCLU. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI ET SURTOUT SAMEDI, LE
RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ASSOCIE AU TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT CEPENDANT PROVOQUER DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC PLUS
MARQUE, D'OU UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDE PREVU AU COURS
DU WEEK-END. LES GUIDANCES SONT TRES DISPERSEES SUR CET
AFFAIBLISSEMENT. CERTAINS MODELES PROPOSENT DES INTENSIFICATIONS
NOTAMMENT GFS EN TOUTE FIN D'ECHEANCE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT MOINS
CISAILLEE. TOUTEFOIS, LA LEGERE BAISSE DU POTENTIEL ET SURTOUT
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ATTENDUE RENDE CE SCENARIO PEU CREDIBLE POUR
L'INSTANT. LA PREVISION DU CMRS N'EN TIENT PAS COMPTE A L'HEURE
ACTUELLE.

ENALA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 230120
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/8/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/23 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 72.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/23 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 55

24H: 2023/02/24 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65

36H: 2023/02/24 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2023/02/25 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2023/02/25 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 65

72H: 2023/02/26 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/27 00 UTC: 27.1 S / 63.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2023/02/28 00 UTC: 27.6 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

SINCE 18Z, ENALA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BARELY CHANGED WITH THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH WESTERN QUADRANT.
THE 2235Z F18 MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A DETERIORATION OF THE INTERNAL
STRUCTURE WITH AN IMPORTANT WEAKNESS IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR. IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE CIMSS ANALYSIS, THIS PATTERN IS PROBABLY RELATED
TO A NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL SHEAR. THE INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 40KT, BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE.

THE SYSTEM IS HEADING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST, PROLONGED BY A
SECONDARY RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, AND A WEAK
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WEEKEND, WHILE THE
SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AND STEERING FLOW SHOULD RETURN TO LOWER LEVELS,
THE TRACK SHOULD SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXACT TRACK AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE FORECAST PLUMES CONFIRM THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.

DESPITE SEVERAL GREEN LIGHTS (A GOOD POLAR DIVERGENCE AND A FAVORABLE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL), THE PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL CONSTRAINT ALSO SEEN
BY THE LATEST RUNS COULD FINALLY LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENALA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A PASSAGE TO THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
STAGE IS HOWEVER NOT EXCLUDED. FROM FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY,
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD HOWEVER CAUSE MORE MARKED DRY AIR INTRUSIONS,
HENCE A MORE OR LESS RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
GUIDELINES ARE VERY SPREAD ON THIS WEAKENING. SOME MODELS PROPOSE
INTENSIFICATIONS, NOTABLY GFS AT THE VERY END OF THE RANGE IN A LESS
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, THE SLIGHT DECREASE IN OCEANIC
POTENTIAL AND MOSTLY THE WEAKENING EXPECTED BEFORE MAKES THIS
SCENARIO NOT VERY CONVINCING FOR THE MOMENT. THE RSMC FORECAST DOES
NOT TAKE THIS INTO ACCOUNT AT THE MOMENT.

ENALA DO NOT THREATEN THE INHABITED ISLANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 230032
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/02/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 23/02/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 72.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/23 AT 12 UTC:
18.2 S / 71.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/24 AT 00 UTC:
20.0 S / 70.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 73.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 73.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.6S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.3S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.8S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.2S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 24.5S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 26.0S 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 26.9S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 72.9E.
22FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 524
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 221924
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/8/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 22/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.7 S / 73.3 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/02/2023 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 45

24H: 23/02/2023 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 120 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 45

36H: 24/02/2023 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 95 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 65 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 24/02/2023 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 130 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 65

60H: 25/02/2023 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 65

72H: 25/02/2023 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/02/2023 18 UTC: 26.8 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 130

120H: 27/02/2023 18 UTC: 27.3 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

DEPUIS 12Z, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'ENALA A PEU EVOLUE AVEC UNE
ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE PRINCIPALE PROCHE DU CENTRE DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-OUEST. MEME SI LA COURBURE SEMBLE PLUS NETTE EN IMAGERIE
INFRAROUGE, LES SOMMETS SE SONT RECHAUFFEES. EN L'ABSENCE DE PASSE
ASCAT OU DE MICRO-ONDES RECENTES, L'ANALYSE RESTE INCERTAINE.
CEPENDANT AU VU DE L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE GMI DE 1225Z ET DES SIGNES DE
COURBURES, L'INTENSITE EST REHAUSSEE A 40KT.

LA TRAJECTOIRE S'INCURVE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST ENTRE LES HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX QUI SE REPLIENT AU SUD-EST ET SE
PROLONGENT PAR UNE DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME, D'UNE PART, ET UN
FAIBLE TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI S'IMISCE DANS LA DORSALE AU
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, D'AUTRE PART. CE WEEK-END, AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT DESCENDRE EN
BASSES COUCHES ET ORIENTER LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST.
MALGRE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR L'ORIENTATION EXACTE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE, LES PANACHES DES DIVERSES PREVISIONS ENSEMBLISTES
CONFIRMENT QUE CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT FAVORABLES A LA POURSUITE DE
L'INTENSIFICATION A COURT TERME, AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE A
MODERE, UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE (UN CANAL D'EVACUATION SE RENFORCANT
COTE POLAIRE) ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE FAVORABLE. CES BONNES
CONDITIONS DEVRAIENT PERMETTRE UN RENFORCEMENT AU MOINS AU STADE DE
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE D'ICI DEMAIN.UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS
IMPORTANTE N'EST PAS COMPLETEMENT A EXCLURE, ETANT DONNE LE COEUR
COMPACT DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI ET SURTOUT SAMEDI, LE
RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ASSOCIE AU TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT PROVOQUER DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC, D'OU UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDE PREVU AU COURS DU WEEK-END. LES
GUIDANCES SONT TRES DISPERSEES SUR CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT. CERTAINS
MODELES PROPOSENT DES INTENSIFICATIONS PROBABLEMENT EN LIEN AVEC DES
PHENOMENES BAROCLINES. LA PREVISION DU CMRS N'EN TIENT PAS COMPTE A
L'HEURE ACTUELLE.

ENALA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 221924
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/8/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 73.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/23 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2023/02/23 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 120 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

36H: 2023/02/24 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 95 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2023/02/24 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 65

60H: 2023/02/25 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 65

72H: 2023/02/25 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/26 18 UTC: 26.8 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 130

120H: 2023/02/27 18 UTC: 27.3 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

SINCE 12Z, ENALA'S CLOUD PATTERN DID NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CLOSE TO THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH WESTERN
QUADRANT. EVEN IF THE CURVATURE SEEMS STRONGER IN INFRARED IMAGERY,
THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED UP. WITHOUT RECENT ASCAT OR MICROWAVE
PASSES, THE ANALYSIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. YET, CONSIDERING THE 1225Z
GMI MICROWAVE IMAGES AND THE SIGNS OF CURVATURE, THE INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 40KT.

THE SYSTEM IS HEADING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST, PROLONGED BY A
SECONDARY RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, AND A WEAK
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WEEKEND, WHILE THE
SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AND STEERING FLOW SHOULD RETURN TO LOWER LEVELS,
THE TRACK SHOULD SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXACT TRACK AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE FORECAST PLUMES CONFIRM THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SHORT TERM
INTENSIFICATION, UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR, GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE
(INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL) AND FAVORABLE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL. THESE GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW A STRENGTHENING TO THE
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE TOMORROW. A STRONGER DEEPENING CAN'T BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE SYSTEM'S COMPACT CORE. FROM FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY ONWARDS, INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH-WEST SHOULD TRIGGER DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS, HENCE A MORE OR LESS RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODELS DISPERSION IS QUITE STRONG ABOUT THIS WEAKENING
TREND. SOME GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGEST A DEEPENING POSSIBLY IN RELATION
WITH BAROCLINIC PROCESSES. THE OFFICIAL RMSC FORECAST DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT THESE SCENARII FOR NOW.

ENALA DO NOT THREATEN THE INHABITED ISLANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 221821
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/02/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 22/02/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 73.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND 200 NM IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/23 AT 06 UTC:
17.6 S / 71.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/23 AT 18 UTC:
19.5 S / 70.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 221250
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/8/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 22/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.6 S / 74.3 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/02/2023 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 0

24H: 23/02/2023 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 24/02/2023 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 24/02/2023 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 65

60H: 25/02/2023 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 75

72H: 25/02/2023 12 UTC: 24.7 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/02/2023 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 205 NO: 130

120H: 27/02/2023 12 UTC: 26.9 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES HEURES DE L'APRES-MIDI, LA CONVECTION S'EST INTENSIFIEE
A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU CENTRE ET LES RECENTES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES
(AMSR2 0855Z, SSMIS-F18 1119Z) MONTRENT UN COEUR CENTRAL MIEUX
CONS0LIDE ET MIEUX PHASE AVEC LA TETE DE LA BANDE INCURVEE. L'IMAGE
GMI DE 1225Z SUGGERE MEME UNE AMORCE D'ANNEAU CONVECTIF CENTRAL AVEC
UN COEUR QUI SEMBLE ASSEZ COMPACT. CES INDICATIONS CONFIRMENT DE
MANIERE EVIDENTE LA POURSUITE DE L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. LE
SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DE MAURICE A AINSI PROCEDE AU BAPTEME OFFICIEL
DE LA TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ENALA CE 22 FEVRIER A 11H30 UTC,
SEPTIEME TEMPETE NOMMEE DE LA SAISON SUR LE BASSIN SUD-OUEST DE
L'OCEAN INDIEN. L'INTENSITE ESTIMEE A 35KT EST PEUT-ETRE UN PEU
SOUS-ESTIMEE AU VU DES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES.

LA TRAJECTOIRE S'INCURVE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST ENTRE LES HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX QUI SE REPLIENT AU SUD-EST ET SE
PROLONGENT PAR UNE DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME, D'UNE PART, ET UN
FAIBLE TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI S'IMISCE DANS LA DORSALE AU
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, D'AUTRE PART. CE WEEK-END, AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT DESCENDRE EN
BASSES COUCHES ET ORIENTER LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST.
MALGRE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR L'ORIENTATION EXACTE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE, LES PANACHES DES DIVERSES PREVISIONS ENSEMBLISTES
CONFIRMENT QUE CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT FAVORABLES A LA POURSUITE DE
L'INTENSIFICATION A COURT TERME, AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE A
MODERE, UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE (UN CANAL D'EVACUATION SE RENFORCANT
COTE POLAIRE) ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE FAVORABLE. CES BONNES
CONDITIONS DEVRAIENT PERMETTRE UN RENFORCEMENT AU MOINS AU STADE DE
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE D'ICI JEUDI. NEANMOINS, UNE INTENSIFICATION
PLUS IMPORTANTE ET PLUS RAPIDE, AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL, N'EST
PAS COMPLETEMENT A EXCLURE, ETANT DONNE LE COEUR COMPACT DU SYSTEME.
A PARTIR DE VENDREDI ET SURTOUT SAMEDI, LE RENFORCEMENT DU
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ASSOCIE AU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT
PROVOQUER DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC PAR LE NORD-OUEST, D'OU UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDE PREVU AU COURS DU WEEK-END. LES
GUIDANCES SONT TRES DISPERSEES SUR CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT. LE CMRS SUIT
UN SCENARIO MEDIAN, MAIS L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE
EST SUPERIEURE A LA MOYENNE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 221250
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/8/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 74.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/23 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 0

24H: 2023/02/23 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2023/02/24 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2023/02/24 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 65

60H: 2023/02/25 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75

72H: 2023/02/25 12 UTC: 24.7 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/26 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 130

120H: 2023/02/27 12 UTC: 26.9 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CENTER AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES (AMSR2
0855Z, SSMIS-F18 1119Z) SHOW A BETTER-CONSOLIDATED CENTRAL CORE WHICH
HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE HEAD OF THE CURVED BAND. THE 1225Z GMI IMAGE
EVEN SUGGESTS THE BEGINNING OF A CENTRAL CONVECTIVE RING WITH A QUITE
COMPACT STRUCTURE. THESE INDICATIONS CLEARLY CONFIRM THAT
INTENSIFICATION IS UNDERWAY. MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS
THUS OFFICIALLY NAMED MODERATE TROPICAL STORM ENALA THIS 22 FEBRUARY
AT 11H30 UTC, THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON OVER THE
SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN. THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 35KT MAY BE A BIT
CONSERVATIVE CONSIDERING THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES.

THE SYSTEM IS HEADING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST, PROLONGED BY A
SECONDARY RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, AND A WEAK
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WEEKEND, WHILE THE
SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AND STEERING FLOW SHOULD RETURN TO LOWER LEVELS,
THE TRACK SHOULD SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXACT TRACK AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE FORECAST PLUMES CONFIRM THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SHORT TERM
INTENSIFICATION, UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR, GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE
(INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL) AND FAVORABLE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL. THESE GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING AT LEAST
TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BY THURSDAY. NEVERTHELESS, AN EVEN
STRONGER AND MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION, UP TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE, CAN'T RULED OUT GIVEN THE SYSTEM'S COMPACT CORE. FROM FRIDAY
AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY ONWARDS, INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
AHEAD OF ON APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH-WEST SHOULD
TRIGGER DRY AIR INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTH-WEST, HENCE A MORE OR LESS
RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS DISPERSION IS QUITE
STRONG ABOUT THIS WEAKENING TREND. THE RSMC FORECAST FOLLOWS A MEDIAN
SCENARIO, BUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 221207
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/02/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 22/02/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENALA) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 74.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND LOCALLY UP TO OVER 300 NM
IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 35
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/23 AT 00 UTC:
16.7 S / 72.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/23 AT 12 UTC:
18.7 S / 71.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>