Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DINGANI-23
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 31.0S 67.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.0S 67.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 32.9S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 31.5S 67.7E.
16FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (DINGANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
851 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHALLOW, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH NO
DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL TROUGH, POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WITH HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE. THE SYSTEM HAS STEADILY WEAKENED
WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH COOL SST (22-23C) AND
PERSISTENT HIGH VWS, AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 17 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 160039
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/02/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 16/02/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-DINGANI) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.1 S / 67.5 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALL WEATHER EXTENDING TO 220 MN FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 85
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/16 AT 12 UTC:
31.5 S / 67.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/17 AT 00 UTC:
33.1 S / 69.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 28.9S 68.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9S 68.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 30.5S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 32.0S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 33.7S 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 29.3S 68.1E.
15FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
795 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 160900Z AND 162100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 151822
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/02/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 15/02/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-DINGANI) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.0 S / 67.9 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALL WEATHER EXTENDING TO 220 MN FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/16 AT 06 UTC:
30.3 S / 66.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 50 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/16 AT 18 UTC:
31.5 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 151217
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/02/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 15/02/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-DINGANI) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.1 S / 68.9 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO MORE THAN 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLES.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/16 AT 00 UTC:
29.7 S / 66.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 60 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/16 AT 12 UTC:
31.0 S / 67.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 26.7S 69.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 69.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 28.7S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 30.2S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 31.7S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 33.3S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 69.2E.
15FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1187 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 150600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 150647
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/02/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 15/02/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-DINGANI) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.8 S / 69.8 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO MORE THAN 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/15 AT 18 UTC:
29.0 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/16 AT 06 UTC:
30.4 S / 66.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 150030
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/6/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 15/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.7 S / 70.7 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SO: 220 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SO: 165 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/02/2023 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SO: 215 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 65

24H: 16/02/2023 00 UTC: 29.2 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 100

36H: 16/02/2023 12 UTC: 30.2 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 185 SO: 110 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 85 NO: 75

48H: 17/02/2023 00 UTC: 31.1 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 100

60H: 17/02/2023 12 UTC: 32.3 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 205 SO: 110 NO: 0

72H: 18/02/2023 00 UTC: 33.6 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE DE DINGANI A CONTINUE DE FAIBLIR. CELLE-CI
N'EST PRESENTE QUE DANS LA QUADRANT SUD-EST DE LA CIRCULATION
LAISSANT AINSI UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE. QUE CE SOIT A PARTIR DES
DONNEES MICRO-ONDES RECENTES OU EN SUIVANT LE VORTEX DENUE DE
CONVECTION, LE CENTRE DE CIRCULATION SE TROUVE A PRES DE 100MN AU
NORD-OUEST DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE. DANS CETTE CONFIGURATION
CISAILLEE, L'ANALYSE DVORAK PEINE A ETRE FAITE. UN PT DE 2.5 PEUT
ETRE DEFINI MAIS PAR INERTIE ON PEUT ENCORE ESTIMER DES VENTS DE
L'ORDRE DE 45KT. DINGANI DEVIENT DONC UNE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
POUR ENCORE PEU DE TEMPS AVANT SON PASSAGE EN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION : POUR CE QUI EST DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE, ON GARDE PEU DE DISPERSION JUSQU'A LA FIN DE VIE DU
SYSTEME. DINGANI POURSUIVRA SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU
SUD-SUD-OUEST EN LIEN AVEC LE RETRAIT VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE ET A LA DESCENTE DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. JEUDI, LE SYSTEME ENTAMERA UN VIRAGE EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-EST EN RALENTISSANT DANS UN COL BAROMETRIQUE, PUIS
IL SERA REPRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION DES MOYENNES LATITUDES, EN
REGAGNANT DE LA VITESSE.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES VONT CONTINUER DE SE DEGRADER, AVEC
UN CISAILLEMENT IMPORTANT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST ET DES INTRUSIONS
SECHES PAR LA FACADE NORD. L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE DINGANI PERDURE BIEN
QU'UN LEGER REGAIN D'INTENSITE EST ATTENDU EN FIN DE CETTE JOURNEE
PAR EFFET BAROCLINE EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG VENANT DE L'OUEST. A CES
ECHEANCES C'EST-A-DIRE A PARTIR DE MERCREDI OU JEUDI, DINGANI
POURRAIT COMMENCER A PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES.
VENDREDI, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT TOTALEMENT HOSTILE, DINGANI DEVRAIT
S'AFFAIBLIR DEFINITIVEMENT ET SE FONDRE AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 150030
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/6/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.7 S / 70.7 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/15 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SW: 215 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 65

24H: 2023/02/16 00 UTC: 29.2 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 100

36H: 2023/02/16 12 UTC: 30.2 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 75

48H: 2023/02/17 00 UTC: 31.1 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 100

60H: 2023/02/17 12 UTC: 32.3 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 205 SW: 110 NW: 0

72H: 2023/02/18 00 UTC: 33.6 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

DINGANI CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. THIS IS PRESENT ONLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION LEAVING A SHEARED
PATTERN. BOTH FROM THE RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND BY FOLLOWING THE
CONVECTIVE DENUDED VORTEX, THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NEARLY 100NM
NORTHWEST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IN THIS SHEARED CONFIGURATION,
THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS DIFFICULT TO DO. A PT OF 2.5 CAN BE DEFINED
BUT BY INERTIA WE CAN STILL ESTIMATE WINDS AROUND 45KT. DINGANI
BECOMES A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE IT BECOMES
A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM.

NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST : AS FAR AS THE TRACK IS CONCERNED, WE KEEP
LITTLE DISPERSION UNTIL THE END OF THE SYSTEM'S LIFE. DINGANI WILL
CONTINUE ITS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IN CONNECTION WITH THE
EASTWARD RETREAT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE DESCENT OF THE
LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. ON
THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN, SLOWING DOWN IN
A BAROMETRIC PASS, AND THEN IT WILL BE TAKEN BACK INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION, REGAINING SPEED.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE, WITH A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTHERN FACADE. THE
WEAKENING OF DINGANI CONTINUES ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT INCREASE OF
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THIS DAY BY BAROCLINIC EFFECT AT
THE MARGIN OF A TROUGH COMING FROM THE WEST. AT THESE TIMES, THAT IS
TO SAY FROM WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, DINGANI COULD START TO LOSE ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. FRIDAY, IN A TOTALLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT,
DINGANI SHOULD WEAKEN DEFINITIVELY AND MERGE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
CIRCULATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 150009
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/02/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 15/02/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.7 S / 70.7 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/15 AT 12 UTC:
27.8 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/16 AT 00 UTC:
29.2 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 24.3S 71.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.3S 71.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 26.5S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 28.3S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 29.7S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 30.8S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 33.1S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 24.9S 71.0E.
14FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
822 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150900Z AND 152100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 141829
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/6/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 14/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.3 S / 71.6 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 425 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/02/2023 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 335 SO: 250 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SO: 150 NO: 0

24H: 15/02/2023 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 295 SO: 215 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 85

36H: 16/02/2023 06 UTC: 29.7 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 85 NO: 75

48H: 16/02/2023 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 195 SO: 100 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SO: 75 NO: 0

60H: 17/02/2023 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 230 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 17/02/2023 18 UTC: 32.5 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 215 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE DINGANI A
GLOBALEMENT PEU EVOLUE, PRESENTANT TOUEFOIS UNE TENDANCE AU
RECHAUFFEMENT. SOUS L'EFFET GRANDISSANT DU CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE,
LA CONVECTION RESTE TOTALEMENT DEPORTEE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST DE
LA CIRCULATION, SANS POUR AUTANT LAISSER APPARAITRE LA CIRCULATION DE
BASSES COUCHES. LA LOCALISATION RESTE ASSEZ DELICATE DANS CES
CONDITIONS ET L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN SYSTEME CISAILLE LAISSE ENCORE UNE
ESTIMATION DE VENT DE L'ORDRE DE 50KT. DINGANI EST DONC ENCORE UNE
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION : POUR CE QUI EST DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE, ON GARDE PEU DE DISPERSION JUSQU'A DIMANCHE. LE SYSTEME
POURSUIVRA SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-OUEST EN ACCELERANT
PROGRESSIVEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LE RETRAIT VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE ET A LA DESCENTE DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. JEUDI, LE SYSTEME ENTAMERA UN VIRAGE EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-EST EN RALENTISSANT DANS UN COL BAROMETRIQUE, PUIS
IL SERA REPRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION DES MOYENNES LATITUDES, EN
REGAGNANT DE LA VITESSE.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES VONT CONTINUER DE SE DEGRADER, AVEC
UN CISAILLEMENT IMPORTANT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST ET DES INTRUSIONS
SECHES PAR LA FACADE NORD. CELA CONDUIRA A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DURABLE
DE DINGANI BIEN QU'UN LEGER REGAIN D'INTENSITE EST ATTENDU A ECHEANCE
DE 24H PAR EFFET BAROCLINE EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG VENANT DE L'OUEST. A
CES ECHEANCES C'EST-A-DIRE A PARTIR DE MERCREDI OU JEUDI, IL POURRAIT
COMMENCER A PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES. VENDREDI, DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT TOTALEMENT HOSTILE, DINGANI DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR
DEFINITIVEMENT ET SE FONDRE AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 141829
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/6/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3 S / 71.6 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 425 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/15 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 335 SW: 250 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 0

24H: 2023/02/15 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 295 SW: 215 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 85

36H: 2023/02/16 06 UTC: 29.7 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 85 NW: 75

48H: 2023/02/16 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 195 SW: 100 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 75 NW: 0

60H: 2023/02/17 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 230 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2023/02/17 18 UTC: 32.5 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 215 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

DURING THE LAST 6H, THE DINGANI CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE
OVERALL, SOMETIMES SHOWING A WARMING TREND. UNDER THE INCREASING
EFFECT OF THE UPPER SHEAR, THE CONVECTION REMAINS TOTALLY DEPORTEE IN
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION, WITHOUT LETTING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEAR. THE LOCALIZATION REMAINS QUITE DELICATE IN
THESE CONDITIONS AND THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IN SHEAR SYSTEM STILL LEAVES
A WIND ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 50KT. DINGANI IS STILL A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST : AS FAR AS THE TRACK IS CONCERNED,
LITTLE DISPERSION IS KEPT UNTIL SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTERN TRACK BY ACCELERATING PROGRESSIVELY IN CONNECTION
WITH THE WITHDRAWAL TOWARDS THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
WITH THE DESCENT OF THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW WITH THE WEAKENING
OF THE SYSTEM. ON THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST BY SLOWING DOWN IN A BAROMETRIC COL, THEN IT WILL BE
RESUMED IN THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION, REGAINING SPEED.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE, WITH A
STRONG NORTH-WESTERN SHEAR AND DRY INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTHERN
FACADE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LASTING WEAKENING OF DINGANI ALTHOUGH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AT 24 HOURS BY BAROCLINIC
EFFECT ON THE EDGE OF A TROUGH COMING FROM THE WEST. AT THESE TIMES,
I.E. FROM WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, IT COULD START TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. FRIDAY, IN A TOTALLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, DINGANI
SHOULD WEAKEN DEFINITIVELY AND MERGE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
CIRCULATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 141804
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/02/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 14/02/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3 S / 71.6 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/15 AT 06 UTC:
26.5 S / 69.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/15 AT 18 UTC:
28.3 S / 67.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 141259
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/6/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 14/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.3 S / 72.1 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 425 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/02/2023 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 360 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 95 NO: 45

24H: 15/02/2023 12 UTC: 27.4 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 305 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 130 NO: 75

36H: 16/02/2023 00 UTC: 29.1 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 95

48H: 16/02/2023 12 UTC: 30.1 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 165 SO: 100 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 75 NO: 55

60H: 17/02/2023 00 UTC: 30.6 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 215 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 17/02/2023 12 UTC: 31.7 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 215 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/02/2023 12 UTC: 33.8 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE DINGANI S'EST CLAIREMENT DEGRADEE AU FIL
DES HEURES SOUS L'EFFET GRANDISSANT DU CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE ,
COMME EN TEMOIGNE LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITAIRES ET EN
PARTICULIER LA DERNIERE PASSE MICRO-ONDE SSMIS F-18 RECUE PEU AVANT
LE RESEAU DE 12Z, PRESENTANT UNE CONVECTION TOTALEMENT DEPORTEE DANS
LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD DE LA CIRCULATION, AVEC UNE BELLE INCURSION D'AIR
SEC SUR LA MOITIE NORD DU SYSTEME. POUR AUTANT, DINGANI CONSERVE
ENCORE UN PEU DE DYNAMISME AVEC UNE ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE TOUJOURS
AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE, CORROBOREE PAR LES ESTIMATIONS
OBJECTIVES (KNES, PGTW) ET SUBJECTIVES (SATCON ET ADT).

EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES
DISPONIBLES RESTENT COHA RENTES AVEC PEU DE DISPERSION JUSQU'A
DIMANCHE. LE SYSTEME POURSUIVRA SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU
SUD-SUD-OUEST EN ACCELERANT PROGRESSIVEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LE RETRAIT
VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET A LA DESCENTE DU NIVEAU DU
FLUX DIRECTEUR AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. JEUDI, LE SYSTEME
ENTAMERA UN VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST EN RALENTISSANT DANS UN
COL BAROMETRIQUE, PUIS IL SERA REPRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES, EN REGAGNANT DE LA VITESSE.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
VONT CONTINUER DE SE DEGRADER, AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT IMPORTANT ET
OMNIPRESENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST, ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN NETTE
BAISSE. DE PLUS, DES INTRUSIONS SECHES PAR LA FACADE NORD CONDUIRONT
A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DURABLE DE DINGANI. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI OU
JEUDI, IL POURRAIT COMMENCER A PERDRE DEFINITIVEMENT SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES TOUT EN CONSERVANT UNE BONNE INTENSITE
GRACE A DES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG VENANT DE
L'OUEST. VENDREDI, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT TOTALEMENT HOSTILE, DINGANI
DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR DEFINITIVEMENT ET SE FONDRE AU SEIN DE LA
CIRCULATION DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 141259
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/6/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.3 S / 72.1 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 425 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/15 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 360 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 45

24H: 2023/02/15 12 UTC: 27.4 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 305 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 130 NW: 75

36H: 2023/02/16 00 UTC: 29.1 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 95

48H: 2023/02/16 12 UTC: 30.1 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 75 NW: 55

60H: 2023/02/17 00 UTC: 30.6 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 215 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2023/02/17 12 UTC: 31.7 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 215 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/18 12 UTC: 33.8 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

DINGANI CLOUD PATTERN HAS CLEARLY DECAYED OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS
UNDER THE INCREASING EFFECT OF THE UPPER SHEAR, AS SHOWN BY THE LAST
SATELLITE IMAGES AND IN PARTICULAR THE LAST F-18 SSMIS PASS
COLLECTED SHORTLY BEFORE THE 12Z RUN, SHOWING A CONVECTION TOTALLY
DEPORTEE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH A NICE
INCURSION OF DRY AIR ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
DINGANI STILL KEEPS SOME DYNAMISM WITH AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE STILL AT
THE STAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM, SUPPORTED BY OBJECTIVE (KNES,
PGTW) AND SUBJECTIVE (SATCON AND ADT) ESTIMATES.

IN TERMS OF TRACK PREDICTION. THE LAST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH LITTLE DISPERSION UNTIL SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD BY ACCELERATING PROGRESSIVELY IN
CONNECTION WITH THE WITHDRAWAL TO THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND WITH THE DESCENT OF THE SEERING FLOW WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. ON THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL START A TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST SLOWING DOWN IN A BAROMETRIC PASS, THEN IT WILL BE TAKEN
BACK IN THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION, REGAINING SPEED.

IN TERMS OF FORECAST INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE, WITH A STRONG AND PERVASIVE NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR, AND A SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED OCEAN POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION, DRY
INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTHERN FACADE WILL LEAD TO A LASTING WEAKENING
OF DINGANI. FROM WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, IT COULD START TO LOSE
DEFINITIVELY ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE KEEPING A GOOD
INTENSITY THANKS TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES AT THE EDGE OF A TROUGH
COMING FROM THE WEST. ON FRIDAY, IN A TOTALLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT,
DINGANI SHOULD DEFINITIVELY WEAKEN AND MERGE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
CIRCULATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 141233
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/02/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 14/02/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.3 S / 72.1 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHESTERN QUADRANT
FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/15 AT 00 UTC:
25.2 S / 70.2 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/15 AT 12 UTC:
27.4 S / 68.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 22.2S 71.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 71.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 24.3S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 26.3S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 28.2S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 29.3S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 31.5S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 71.5E.
14FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
907 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 140600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 140630
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/6/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 14/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.0 S / 72.6 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 425 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/02/2023 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 370 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 155 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 45

24H: 15/02/2023 06 UTC: 26.3 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 335 SO: 205 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SO: 150 NO: 75

36H: 15/02/2023 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 325 SO: 215 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 75

48H: 16/02/2023 06 UTC: 29.6 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 215 SO: 140 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 85 NO: 75

60H: 16/02/2023 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 175 SO: 100 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 75 NO: 55

72H: 17/02/2023 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 220 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/02/2023 06 UTC: 33.3 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=4.0

ASSEZ PEU DE CHANGEMENTS AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES. LE
SYSTEME DINGANI ENDURE UN FORT CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE DE SECTEUR
OUEST-NORD-OUEST ESTIME A 27KT SELON LES DONNEES DU CIMSS, EXPOSANT
PARTIELLEMENT LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES EN BORDURE NORD D'UNE
CONVECTION DEVENANT PLUS FAIBLE, AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI SE SONT
PASSAGEREMENT REFROIDIS AU COURS DE LA MATINEE. L'ASCAT PARTIELLE DE
0438Z PRESENTE ENCORE DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
SUD. AINSI COMME TENU DE CETTE OBSERVATION DIRECTE, AINSI QUE DES
ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES, L'INTENSITA EST PORTEE A
55KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENTS SIGNIFICATIFS, EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE. LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES SONT EN BON ACCORD AVEC ASSEZ
PEU DE DISPERSION AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS. LE SYSTEME POURSUIVRA
SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-OUEST EN ACCELERANT
PROGRESSIVEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LE RETRAIT VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE ET A LA DESCENTE DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. JEUDI, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT AMORCER UN
VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST EN RALENTISSANT DANS UN COL
BAROMETRIQUE, PUIS IL SERA REPRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
CONTINUENT DE SE DEGRADER, AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT IMPORTANT OMNIPRESENT
DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST AU FIL DES JOURS. DE PLUS, DES INTRUSIONS
SECHES PAR LA FACADE NORD AINSI QUE LA BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
VONT S'Y AJOUTER POUR CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DURABLE DE
DINGANI. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, IL POURRAIT COMMENCER A PERDRE
PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES TOUT EN CONSERVANT
UNE BONNE INTENSITE GRACE A DES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES EN MARGE D'UN
TALWEG. CES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES POURRAIENT MEME PERMETTRE UN REGAIN
TEMPORAIRE D'INTENSITE A ECHEANCE DE JEUDI. VENDREDI, DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT TOTALEMENT HOSTILE, DINGANI DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR
DEFINITIVEMENT ET SE FONDRE A LA CIRCULATION DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 140630
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/6/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 72.6 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 425 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/14 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 370 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 45

24H: 2023/02/15 06 UTC: 26.3 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 335 SW: 205 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 75

36H: 2023/02/15 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 325 SW: 215 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 75

48H: 2023/02/16 06 UTC: 29.6 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 85 NW: 75

60H: 2023/02/16 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 175 SW: 100 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 75 NW: 55

72H: 2023/02/17 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 220 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/18 06 UTC: 33.3 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=4.0

RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. DINGANI IS ENDURING A
STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER SHEAR ESTIMATED AT 27KT ACCORDING TO
CIMSS DATA, PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AT THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF A WEAKENING CONVECTION, WITH CLOUD TOPS THAT HAVE TEMPORARILY
COOLED DURING THE MORNING. THE PARTIAL 0438Z ASCAT SWATH STILL SHOWS
STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SO AS A RESULT OF THIS
DIRECT OBSERVATION, AS WELL AS THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSES, THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55KT.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES, IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LITTLE DISPERSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, ACCELERATING
PROGRESSIVELY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD AND AS THE
STEERING LEVEL DROPS AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. ON THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM
COULD START A TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST BY SLOWING DOWN IN A
BAROMETRIC PASS, THEN IT WILL BE RESUMED IN THE MID-LATITUDE
CIRCULATION.

IN TERMS OF FORECAST INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE, WITH SIGNIFICANT NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. IN ADDITION, DRY AIR INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTHERN FACADE
AS WELL AS THE DECREASEOF THE HEAT POTENTIAL OCEAN WILL ADD UP TO A
SUSTAINED WEAKENING OF DINGANI. FROM WEDNESDAY, IT COULD START TO
LOSE PROGRESSIVELY ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE KEEPING A GOOD
INTENSITY THANKS TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES AT THE MARGIN OF A TROUGH.
THESE BAROCLINIC PROCESSES COULD EVEN ALLOW A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY BY THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY, IN A TOTALLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT,
DINGANI SHOULD WEAKEN DEFINITIVELY AND MERGE WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
CIRCULATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 140612
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/02/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 14/02/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 72.6 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHESTERN QUADRANT
FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/14 AT 18 UTC:
24.1 S / 70.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/15 AT 06 UTC:
26.3 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 140041
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/6/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 14/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.3 S / 72.7 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 280 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/02/2023 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SO: 250 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

24H: 15/02/2023 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SO: 285 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 0

36H: 15/02/2023 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 85

48H: 16/02/2023 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SO: 230 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 95

60H: 16/02/2023 12 UTC: 30.0 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 65

72H: 17/02/2023 00 UTC: 30.8 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/02/2023 00 UTC: 33.1 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=4.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU FORT
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT D'ALTITUDE (30KT SELON L'ANALYSE DU CIMSS), LA
CONVECTION AUTOUR DE DINGANI S'EST TRES NETTEMENT AFFAIBLIE ET A ETE
PROJETEE ENTIEREMENT DANS LE SUD DU SYSTEME. PAR AILLEURS LES IMAGES
SATELLITES MONTRE UN CENTRE DORENAVANT EXPOSE, CE QUI EST CONFIRME
PAR L'IMAGE MICROONDE SSMIS DE 2247Z. EN ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES
SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES, DINGANI A DONC ETE RETROGRADE
AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS AUTOUR DE 60KT.

EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, PAS DE CHANGEMENTS
SIGNIFICATIFS. L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES RESTENT EN BON ACCORD JUSQU'A
ECHEANCE DE MERCREDI. LE SYSTEME POURSUIVRA SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
SUD-SUD-OUEST EN ACCELERANT PROGRESSIVEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LE RETRAIT
VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET A LA DESCENTE DU NIVEAU DU
FLUX DIRECTEUR AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. JEUDI, LE SYSTEME
POURRAIT RALENTIR DANS UN COL BAROMETRIQUE AVANT DE REPRENDRE UN
MOUVEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST EN ETANT PROGRESSIVEMENT REPRIS DANS LA
CIRCULATION DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. A CES ECHEANCES, LA CHRONOLOGIE
DIFFERE UN PEU PLUS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES MAIS LE CONTEXTE
RESTE GLOBALEMENT LE MEME : UNE DISPARITION DANS LA CIRCULATION DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES.

EN TERME DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
CONTINUENT DE SE DEGRADER FORTEMENT, AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT DE VENT DE
SECTEUR NORD IMPORTANT QUI SE POURSUIT POUR LES PROCHAINES ECHEANCES.
DE PLUS, LES INTRUSIONS SECHES PAR LA FACADE NORD AINSI QUE LA BAISSE
DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE VONT S'Y AJOUTER POUR CONDUIRE A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DURABLE DE DINGANI. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI OU JEUDI, IL
POURRAIT COMMENCER A PERDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES TOUT EN CONSERVANT UNE BONNE INTENSITE GRACE A DES
PROCESSUS BAROCLINES EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG. CES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES
POURRAIENT MEME PERMETTRE UN REGAIN TEMPORAIRE D'INTENSITE A ECHEANCE
DE JEUDI. MAIS VENDREDI, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT TOTALEMENT HOSTILE, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR DEFINITIVEMENT ET SE FONDRE A LA
CIRCULATION DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 140041
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/6/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3 S / 72.7 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/14 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2023/02/15 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 0

36H: 2023/02/15 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 85

48H: 2023/02/16 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95

60H: 2023/02/16 12 UTC: 30.0 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 65

72H: 2023/02/17 00 UTC: 30.8 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/18 00 UTC: 33.1 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG UPPER WIND
SHEAR (30KT ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS ANALYSIS), THE CONVECTION AROUND
DINGANI HAS CLEARLY WEAKENED AND HAS BEEN PROJECTED ENTIRELY IN THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MOREOVER, THE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CENTER
THAT IS NOW EXPOSED, WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY THE SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
OF 2247Z. IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
AVAILABLE, DINGANI HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM
WITH WINDS AROUND 60KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ALL MODELS REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTERN TRACK BY ACCELERATING PROGRESSIVELY IN CONNECTION
WITH THE WITHDRAWAL TOWARDS THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
WITH THE DESCENT OF THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW WITH THE WEAKENING
OF THE SYSTEM. ON THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD SLOW DOWN IN A
BAROMETRIC COLLAR BEFORE RESUMING A SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT BY BEING
PROGRESSIVELY TAKEN BACK INTO THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION. AT THESE
TIMES, THE CHRONOLOGY DIFFERS A LITTLE MORE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT
MODELS BUT THE CONTEXT REMAINS GLOBALLY THE SAME : A DISAPPEARANCE IN
THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO DETERIORATE STRONGLY, WITH A SIGNIFICANT NORTH WIND SHEAR THAT
WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW TIMESCALES. MOREOVER, THE DRY
INTRUSIONS BY THE NORTHERN FACADE AND THE DECREASE OF THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL WILL ADD UP TO A DURABLE WEAKENING OF DINGANI. FROM
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, IT COULD START TO PROGRESSIVELY LOSE ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE KEEPING A GOOD INTENSITY THANKS TO
BAROCLINIC PROCESSES AT THE EDGE OF A TROUGH. THESE BAROCLINIC
PROCESSES COULD EVEN ALLOW A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY
THURSDAY. BUT ON FRIDAY, IN A TOTALLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD WEAKEN DEFINITIVELY AND MERGE WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
CIRCULATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 140016
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/02/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 14/02/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3 S / 72.7 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/14 AT 12 UTC:
23.0 S / 71.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/15 AT 00 UTC:
25.3 S / 69.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 20.7S 73.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 73.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.3S 72.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 24.2S 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 26.3S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 28.4S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 30.3S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 31.7S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 73.3E.
13FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
818 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 131851
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/6/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 13/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.2 S / 73.0 E
(VINGT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/W 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 280 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/02/2023 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 335 SO: 240 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

24H: 14/02/2023 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 345 SO: 240 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 75

36H: 15/02/2023 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SO: 280 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 0

48H: 15/02/2023 18 UTC: 28.5 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 100

60H: 16/02/2023 06 UTC: 29.5 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 65

72H: 16/02/2023 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/02/2023 18 UTC: 32.7 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LE CYCLONE DINGANI A COMMENCE SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT TOUJOURS AVEC UNE CONFIGURATION EN CENTRE NOYE DANS
LA MASSE MAIS AVEC UNE CONVECTION EN BAISSE AUTOUR DU CENTRE. PAR
AILLEURS, SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT LE CENTRE S'EST RAPPROCHE DE
LA BORDURE DU CDO. CETTE PHASE DE TRANSITION VERS UNE CONFIGURATION
EN UN SYSTEME CISAILLE EST CONFIRME PAR L'IMAGE MICROONDE SSMIS DE
1328Z QUI MONTRE UNE CONVECTION ESSENTIELLEMENT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD
DU SYSTEME. DE PLUS LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1645Z A PERMIS UN
POSITIONNEMENT DU CENTRE VERS 20.18S/72.95E. DANS CES CONDITIONS,
L'INTENSITE DE DINGANI EST REVUE LEGEREMENT A LA BAISSE AVEC DES
VENTS AUTOUR DE 70KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION, L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES
RESTANT MAINTENANT EN BON ACCORD DU MOINS JUSQU'A ECHEANCE DE
MERCREDI. LE SYSTEME POURSUIVRA SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST
EN ACCELERANT PROGRESSIVEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LE RETRAIT VERS L'EST DE
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET A LA DESCENTE DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR
LORSQUE LE SYSTEME FAIBLIRA PLUS FRANCHEMENT. JEUDI, LE SYSTEME
POURRAIT RALENTIR DANS UN COL BAROMETRIQUE AVANT DE REPRENDRE UN
MOUVEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST EN ETANT PROGRESSIVEMENT REPRIS DANS LA
CIRCULATION DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. A CES ECHEANCES, LA CHRONOLOGIE
DIFFERE UN PEU PLUS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES MAIS LE CONTEXTE
RESTE GLOBALEMENT LE MEME : UNE DISPARITION DANS LA CIRCULATION DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES.

LES ANALYSES DU CIMSS MONTRENT QUE L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE DINGANI
COMMENCE A ETRE DEFAVORABLE AU MAINTIEN DE SON INTENSITE AVEC
L'AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST. AINSI AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 6H AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT PLUS VERS LE SUD, DINGANI DEVRAIT
PRESENTER UN AFFAIBLISSSMENT DE SON INTENSITE. PROGRESSIVEMENT LES
INTRUSIONS SECHES PAR LA FACADE NORD DEVRAIENT AUSSI ETRE PRESENTES
RENDANT LES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES PLUS HOSTILES ET DURABLEMENT.
DANS CET ENVIRONNEMENT DEFAVORABLE, DINGANI VA DONC RENTRER DANS UNE
PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DURABLE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI OU JEUDI, IL
POURRAIT COMMENCER A PERDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES TOUT EN CONSERVANT UNE BONNE INTENSITE GRACE A DES
PROCESSUS BAROCLINES EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG. CES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES
POURRAIENT MEME PERMETTRE UN REGAIN TEMPORAIRE D'INTENSITE A ECHEANCE
DE JEUDI. MAIS ENTRE VENDREDI ET SAMEDI, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT
TOTALEMENT HOSTILE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR DEFINITIVEMENT ET
SE FONDRE A LA CIRCULATION DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 131851
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/6/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 73.0 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/14 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2023/02/14 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 345 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 75

36H: 2023/02/15 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 0

48H: 2023/02/15 18 UTC: 28.5 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 100

60H: 2023/02/16 06 UTC: 29.5 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 65

72H: 2023/02/16 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/17 18 UTC: 32.7 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=5.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CYCLONE DINGANI HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN WITH A
CENTER CONFIGURATION EMBEDDED IN THE MASS BUT WITH A DECREASING
CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. MOREOVER, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE
SHEAR, THE CENTER MOVED CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE CDO. THIS
TRANSITION PHASE TOWARDS A SHEAR SYSTEM CONFIGURATION IS CONFIRMED BY
THE SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 1328Z WHICH SHOWS CONVECTION
ESSENTIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. MOREOVER, THE
ASCAT PASS OF 1645Z HAS ALLOWED A POSITIONING OF THE CENTER AROUND
20.18S/72.95E. IN THESE CONDITIONS, THE INTENSITY OF DINGANI IS
REVISED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARDS WITH WINDS AROUND 70KT.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST, ALL THE MODELS NOW REMAINING IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTERN TRACK, ACCELERATING PROGRESSIVELY AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD AND AS THE STEERING FLOW
DESCENDS, WHEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS MORE FRANKLY. ON THURSDAY, THE
SYSTEM COULD SLOW DOWN IN A BAROMETRIC COLLAR BEFORE RESUMING A
SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT BY BEING PROGRESSIVELY TAKEN BACK INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION. AT THESE TIMES, THE CHRONOLOGY DIFFERS A
LITTLE MORE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS BUT THE CONTEXT REMAINS
GLOBALLY THE SAME: A DISAPPEARANCE IN THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION.

CIMSS ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE ENVIRONMENT OF DINGANI IS BEGINNING TO
BE UNFAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY WITH THE INCREASE OF THE
NORTHWEST SHEAR. THUS OVER THE NEXT 6H WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY
DISPLACEMENT, DINGANI SHOULD SHOW A WEAKENING OF ITS INTENSITY.
PROGRESSIVELY DRY INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTHERN FACADE SHOULD ALSO BE
PRESENT MAKING THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MORE HOSTILE AND LONG
LASTING. IN THIS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, DINGANI WILL ENTER A PHASE
OF LASTING WEAKENING. FROM WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, IT COULD START TO
PROGRESSIVELY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE KEEPING A GOOD
INTENSITY THANKS TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES AT THE EDGE OF A TROUGH.
THESE BAROCLINIC PROCESSES COULD EVEN ALLOW A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY BY THURSDAY. BUT BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, IN A TOTALLY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN DEFINITIVELY AND MERGE
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 131837
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/02/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 13/02/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DINGANI) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 73.0 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/14 AT 06 UTC:
21.5 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/14 AT 18 UTC:
23.8 S / 70.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 131208
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/6/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 13/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.8 S / 73.1 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 971 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/02/2023 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SO: 175 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 45

24H: 14/02/2023 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SO: 250 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 140 NO: 0

36H: 15/02/2023 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SO: 195 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 140 NO: 75

48H: 15/02/2023 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 55

60H: 16/02/2023 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 85

72H: 16/02/2023 12 UTC: 30.2 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 85 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/02/2023 12 UTC: 32.1 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 0


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0-

BEAUCOUP DE CHANGEMENT AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES : LA
CONFIGURATION EN OEIL S'EST TEMORAIREMENT AMELIOREE AVANT DE PERDRE
EN NETTETE POUR MIGRER VERS UNE CONFIGURATION EN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA
MASSE AU COURS DES DERNIERES 2 HEURES. LES DONNEES GCOM DE 0903UTC
PERMETTENT TOUJOURS DE NOTER UN DECALAGE DU CENTRE DE CIRCULATION
ENTRE LES BASSES COUCHES ET L'ALTITUDE. CE DECALAGE VERS LE
NORD-NORD-OUEST DE L'ORDRE DE 20MN PERMET D'ESTIMER UN CENTRE VERS
19.9S/73.1E A 12UTC, EN COMPARAISON DE L'ESTIMATION QUI POURRAIT ETRE
FAITE A PARTIR DES IMAGES VISIBLES. L'ESTIMATION DVORAK D'ABORD
MOYENNEE SUR 6H VIA L'ANALYSE EN OEIL PUIS CELLE FAITE EN
CONFIGURATION CDO LAISSE UN CI DE 5.0- SOIT UNE ESTIMATION DE VENT DE
L'ORDRE DE 75KT. DINGANI S'EST DONC LEGEREMENT INTENSIFIE SUR UN PAS
DE 6H MAIS PRESENTE UNE CONSTANCE D'INTENSITE SUR UNE PERIODE DE 12H.
LE PASSAGE EN CONFIGURATION DE CDO ANNONCE CERTAINEMENT UN DEBUT
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU FAIT DE L'AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT NOTABLE
SUR L'ANALYDE DU CIMSS.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION, L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES
RESTANT MAINTENANT EN BON ACCORD DU MOINS JUSQU'A ECHEANCE DE
MERCREDI. LE SYSTEME POURSUIVRA SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST
EN ACCELERANT PROGRESSIVEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LE RETRAIT VERS L'EST DE
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET A LA DESCENTE DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR
LORSQUE LE SYSTEME FAIBLIRA PLUS FRANCHEMENT. JEUDI, LE SYSTEME
POURRAIT RALENTIR DANS UN COL BAROMETRIQUE AVANT DE REPRENDRE UN
MOUVEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST EN ETANT PROGRESSIVEMENT REPRIS DANS LA
CIRCULATION DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. A CES ECHEANCES, LA CHRONOLOGIE
DIFFERE UN PEU PLUS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES MAIS LE CONTEXTE
RESTE GLOBALEMENT LE MEME : UNE DISPARITION DANS LA CIRCULATION DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES.

LES ANALYSES DU CIMSS MONTRENT QUE L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE DINGANI
COMMENCE A ETRE DEFAVORABLE AU MAINTIEN DE SON INTENSITE AVEC
L'AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST. AINSI AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 6H AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT PLUS VERS LE SUD, DINGANI DEVRAIT
PRESENTER UN AFFAIBLISSSMENT DE SON INTENSITE. PROGRESSIVEMENT LES
INTRUSIONS SECHES PAR LA FACADE NORD DEVRAIENT AUSSI ETRE PRESENTES
RENDANT LES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES PLUS HOSTILES ET DURABLEMENT.
DANS CET ENVIRONNEMENT DEFAVORABLE, DINGANI VA DONC RENTRER DANS UNE
PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DURABLE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI OU JEUDI, IL
POURRAIT COMMENCER A PERDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES TOUT EN CONSERVANT UNE BONNE INTENSITE GRACE A DES
PROCESSUS BAROCLINES EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG. CES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES
POURRAIENT MEME PERMETTRE UN REGAIN TEMPORAIRE D'INTENSITE A ECHEANCE
DE JEUDI. MAIS ENTRE VENDREDI ET SAMEDI, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT
TOTALEMENT HOSTILE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR DEFINITIVEMENT ET
SE FONDRE A LA CIRCULATION DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 131208
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/6/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 73.1 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 971 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/14 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 45

24H: 2023/02/14 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 250 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 0

36H: 2023/02/15 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 75

48H: 2023/02/15 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 55

60H: 2023/02/16 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 85

72H: 2023/02/16 12 UTC: 30.2 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/17 12 UTC: 32.1 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

A LOT OF CHANGE DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS: THE EYE PATTERN HAS
TEMPORARILY IMPROVED BEFORE LOSING SHARPNESS TO MIGRATE TO A PATTERN
OF CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DURING THE LAST 2 HOURS. THE GCOM DATA OF
0903UTC STILL ALLOW TO NOTE A SHIFT OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER BETWEEN
THE LOW LAYERS AND THE ALTITUDE. THIS NORTH-NORTHWEST SHIFT OF ABOUT
20MN ALLOWS TO ESTIMATE A CENTER AROUND 19.9S/73.1E AT 12UTC,
COMPARED TO THE ESTIMATE THAT COULD BE MADE FROM THE VISIBLE IMAGES.
THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FIRST AVERAGED OVER 6H VIA THE EYE ANALYSIS AND
THEN THE ONE DONE IN CDO CONFIGURATION LEAVES A CI OF 5.0- THAT IS TO
SAY A WIND ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 75KT. DINGANI HAS THUS SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFIED OVER A 6H STEP BUT PRESENTS A CONSTANT INTENSITY OVER A
12H PERIOD. THE PASSAGE IN CDO CONFIGURATION ANNOUNCES CERTAINLY A
BEGINNING OF WEAKENING BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE OF THE SHEAR
NOTICEABLE ON THE ANALYSIS OF THE CIMSS.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST, ALL THE MODELS NOW REMAINING IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTERN TRACK, ACCELERATING PROGRESSIVELY AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD AND AS THE STEERING FLOW
DESCENDS, WHEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS MORE FRANKLY. ON THURSDAY, THE
SYSTEM COULD SLOW DOWN IN A BAROMETRIC COLLAR BEFORE RESUMING A
SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT BY BEING PROGRESSIVELY TAKEN BACK INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION. AT THESE TIMES, THE CHRONOLOGY DIFFERS A
LITTLE MORE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS BUT THE CONTEXT REMAINS
GLOBALLY THE SAME: A DISAPPEARANCE IN THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION.

CIMSS ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE ENVIRONMENT OF DINGANI IS BEGINNING TO
BE UNFAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY WITH THE INCREASE OF THE
NORTHWEST SHEAR. THUS OVER THE NEXT 6H WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY
DISPLACEMENT, DINGANI SHOULD SHOW A WEAKENING OF ITS INTENSITY.
PROGRESSIVELY DRY INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTHERN FACADE SHOULD ALSO BE
PRESENT MAKING THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MORE HOSTILE AND LONG
LASTING. IN THIS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, DINGANI WILL ENTER A PHASE
OF LASTING WEAKENING. FROM WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, IT COULD START TO
PROGRESSIVELY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE KEEPING A GOOD
INTENSITY THANKS TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES AT THE EDGE OF A TROUGH.
THESE BAROCLINIC PROCESSES COULD EVEN ALLOW A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY BY THURSDAY. BUT BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, IN A TOTALLY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN DEFINITIVELY AND MERGE
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 131203
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/02/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 13/02/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DINGANI) 971 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 73.1 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/14 AT 00 UTC:
20.7 S / 72.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/14 AT 12 UTC:
22.3 S / 71.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 18.9S 73.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 73.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 20.0S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.4S 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 23.1S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 25.3S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 28.6S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 30.7S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 73.2E.
13FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
913 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 130600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 130623
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/6/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 13/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.9 S / 73.5 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/02/2023 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SO: 195 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

24H: 14/02/2023 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 45

36H: 14/02/2023 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 345 SO: 205 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 75

48H: 15/02/2023 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SO: 250 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 0

60H: 15/02/2023 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 100

72H: 16/02/2023 06 UTC: 29.5 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 75 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/02/2023 06 UTC: 31.8 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 0

120H: 18/02/2023 06 UTC: 33.9 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE N'A PAS
BEAUCOUP EVOLUE : UNE STRUCTURE EN OEIL DONT L'OEIL EST RELATIVEMENT
FROID DU FAIT DE LA PRESENCE DE NUAGES D'ALTITUDE ALORS QUE SUR LES
DERNIERES IMAGES VISIBLES L'OEIL APPARAIT PLUS NETTEMENT. LES
DERNIERES DONNEES MICRO-ONDE CONTINUENT DE MONTRER UN DECALAGE ENTRE
LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES ET CELLE PLUS HAUTE TRADUISANT LE
CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. CETTE CIRCULATION RESTE SOLIDE
MAIS MONTRE TOUT DE MEME UN LEGER AFFAIBLISSMENT AU COURS DES 6
DERNIERES HEURES, UN AFFAIBLISMENT QUI PEUT AUSSI SE NOTER SUR LES
ANALYSES DVORAK QUI PLAFONNENT A 4.5. LE CENTRE EST DONC RELOCALISE
LEGEREMENT PLUS AU NORD-OUEST DU CENTRE DE CIRCULATION NOTABLE EN
ALTITUDE SUR LES IMAGES VISIBLES ET UNE ESTIMATION DE 70KT PEUT ETRE
FAITE POUR DINGANI.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION, L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES
RESTANT MAINTENANT EN BON ACCORD : LE SYSTEME POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE
VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN LIEN AVEC LE RETRAIT VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PREVU DU SYSTEME EN CE DEBUT DE
SEMAINE S'ACCOMPAGNERA DE LA DESCENTE DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR :
LA TRAJECTOIRE SE MAINTIENDRA AINSI VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST, EN
S'ACCELERANT MARDI ET MERCREDI ENTRE UN CUT-OFF DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME ET UNE DORSALE QUI SE STRUCTURE PLUS
FRANCHEMENT A L'EST. JEUDI, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT RALENTIR DANS UN COL
BAROMETRIQUE AVANT DE REPRENDRE UN MOUVEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST EN ETANT
PROGRESSIVEMENT REPRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

LES ANALYSES DU CIMSS MONTRENT QUE L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE DINGANI RESTE
ENCORE MODEREMENT FAVORABLE CE LUNDI AVEC UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE ET UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-NORD-EST ENCORE
FAIBLE A MODERE. NEANMOINS, AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 12H AVEC LE
DEPLACEMENT PLUS VERS LE SUD, DINGANI DEVRAIT ETRE CONCERNE PAR UN
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST PLUS MARQUE. PROGRESSIVEMENT LES
INTRUSIONS SECHES PAR LA FACADE NORD DEVRAIENT AUSSI ETRE PRESENTE
RENDANT LES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES PLUS HOSTILES ET DURABLEMENT.
DANS CET ENVIRONNEMENT DEFAVORABLE, DINGANI VA DONC RENTRER DANS UNE
PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DURABLE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI OU JEUDI, IL
POURRAIT COMMENCER A PERDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES TOUT EN CONSERVANT UNE BONNE INTENSITE GRACE A DES
PROCESSUS BAROCLINES EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG. CES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES
POURRAIENT MEME PERMETTRE UN REGAIN TEMPORAIRE D'INTENSITE A ECHEANCE
DE JEUDI. MAIS ENTRE VENDREDI ET SAMEDI, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT
TOTALEMENT HOSTILE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR DEFINITIVEMENT ET
SE FONDRE A LA CIRCULATION DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 130623
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/6/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 73.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/13 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2023/02/14 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45

36H: 2023/02/14 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 345 SW: 205 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 75

48H: 2023/02/15 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 0

60H: 2023/02/15 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 100

72H: 2023/02/16 06 UTC: 29.5 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 75 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/17 06 UTC: 31.8 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2023/02/18 06 UTC: 33.9 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH : AN
EYE STRUCTURE WITH A RELATIVELY COLD EYE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HIGH
CLOUDS, WHILE ON THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES THE EYE APPEARS MORE
CLEARLY. THE LATEST MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHIFT BETWEEN
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE HIGHER ONE, REFLECTING THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR. THIS CIRCULATION REMAINS STRONG BUT SHOWS A
SLIGHT WEAKENING DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, A WEAKENING THAT CAN ALSO
BE NOTED ON THE DVORAK ANALYSES WHICH PEAK AT 4.5. THE CENTER IS THUS
RELOCATED SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
NOTICEABLE IN ALTITUDE ON THE VISIBLE IMAGES AND AN ESTIMATE OF 70KT
CAN BE MADE FOR DINGANI.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST, ALL MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT: THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS SOUTH-WESTERN TRACK IN CONNECTION WITH THE
REMOVAL TO THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE EXPECTED WEAKENING
OF THE SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
LOWERING OF THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW: THE TRACK WILL THUS
CONTINUE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, ACCELERATING ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERE CUT-OFF TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM
AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BECOMING MORE CLEARLY STRUCTURED
TO THE EAST. ON THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD SLOW DOWN IN A BAROMETRIC
COLLAR BEFORE RESUMING A MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST BY BEING
GRADUALLY TAKEN BACK IN THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION.

CIMSS ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE ENVIRONMENT OF DINGANI IS STILL
MODERATELY FAVORABLE THIS MONDAY WITH A GOOD POLAR UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND A STILL WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHEAR.
NEVERTHELESS, DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH THE SHIFT MORE TOWARDS
THE SOUTH, DINGANI SHOULD BE CONCERNED BY A MORE MARKED NORTH-WEST
SHEAR. GRADUALLY DRY INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTHERN FACADE SHOULD ALSO
BE PRESENT MAKING THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MORE HOSTILE AND LONG
DURATION. IN THIS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, DINGANI WILL ENTER A PHASE
OF DURABLE WEAKENING. FROM WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, IT COULD START TO
PROGRESSIVELY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE KEEPING A GOOD
INTENSITY THANKS TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES AT THE EDGE OF A TROUGH.
THESE BAROCLINIC PROCESSES COULD EVEN ALLOW A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY BY THURSDAY. BUT BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, IN A TOTALLY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN DEFINITIVELY AND MERGE
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 130603
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/02/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 13/02/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DINGANI) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 73.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/13 AT 18 UTC:
19.8 S / 73.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/14 AT 06 UTC:
21.1 S / 72.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 130031
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/6/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 13/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.4 S / 73.9 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/02/2023 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 14/02/2023 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SO: 165 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 110 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 45

36H: 14/02/2023 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SO: 195 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SO: 140 NO: 65

48H: 15/02/2023 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SO: 230 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SO: 100 NO: 0

60H: 15/02/2023 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 110 NO: 65

72H: 16/02/2023 00 UTC: 28.2 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/02/2023 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 75 NO: 55

120H: 18/02/2023 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DINGANI A MONTRE QUELQUES SIGNES
D'INTENSIFICATION, AVEC UN RENFORCEMENT DE LA CONVECTION EN AMONT DU
CISAILLEMENT ET DETECTION TEMPORAIRE D'ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE DANS LE
MUR DE L'OEIL OUEST VERS 1930Z. LES PASSES MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 DE 2048Z
ET SSMIS-F18 DE 2300Z MONTRENT UN ANNEAU CONVECTIF CENTRAL PLUS
SOLIDE ET PLUS SYMETRIQUE QUE DIMANCHE SOIR. L'IMAGERIE SATELLITAIRE
SUGGERE UNE AMELIORATION DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE AVEC UN CANAL
D'EVACUATION AU SUD DU SYSTEME. SELON LES ANALYSES DU CIMSS, LE
CISAILLEMENT EST EN BAISSE ET VOISIN DE 12KT. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN
OEIL NE S'EST EN REVANCHE PAS AMELIOREE AVEC UN DT DE 4.5-. LES
ESTIMATIONS SATCON ET ADT ONT NEANMOINS POURSUIVI LEUR HAUSSE. LA
PASSE ASCAT-B PARTIELLE DE 1656Z AYANT MONTRE DES VENTS A 58KT, CE
QUI SUGGERE DES VENTS BIEN SUPERIEURS EN TENANT COMPTE DE LA
SATURATION DE LA MESURE DANS CETTE GAMME DE VENTS. SUR LA BASE DE CES
DIVERSES DONNEES, L'INTENSITE ESTIMEE DU SYSTEME EST AUGMENTEE A 75KT
A 00UTC, UN PEU AU-DESSUS DE L'ANALYSE DVORAK. DINGANI EST
PROBABLEMENT PROCHE DE SON PIC D'INTENSITE.

LE SYSTEME POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN LIEN AVEC LE
RETRAIT VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
PREVU DU SYSTEME EN CE DEBUT DE SEMAINE S'ACCOMPAGNERA DE LA DESCENTE
DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR. LA TRAJECTOIRE SE MAINTIENDRA AINSI VERS
LE SUD-SUD-OUEST, EN S'ACCELERANT MARDI ET MERCREDI ENTRE UN CUT-OFF
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME ET UNE DORSALE A L'EST ET
AU SUD-EST. JEUDI, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT RALENTIR DANS UN COL
BAROMETRIQUE ET QUASIMENT SOUS LE CUT-OFF, AVANT DE REPRENDRE UN
MOUVEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST EN FIN DE SEMAINE EN ETANT PROGRESSIVEMENT
REPRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. LA DISPERSION
ENTRE MODELES A NETTEMENT BAISSE PAR RAPPORT A CES DERNIERS JOURS,
APPORTANT DONC UNE BONNE CONFIANCE SUR CE SCENARIO.

L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE DINGANI RESTE MODEREMENT FAVORABLE CE LUNDI MATIN
AVEC UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE ET UN CISAILLEMENT
DE NORD-NORD-EST FAIBLE A MODERE. NEANMOINS, D'ICI CE LUNDI SOIR, DU
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEVRAIT SE METTRE
EN PLACE, ACCOMPAGNE PROGRESSIVEMENT D'INTRUSIONS SECHES. CES
CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES HOSTILES ET DURABLES POUR LE RESTE DE LA
SEMAINE SE DOUBLENT D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE. DANS CET
ENVIRONNEMENT DEFAVORABLE, DINGANI VA DONC RENTRER DANS UNE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DURABLE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI OU JEUDI, IL POURRAIT
COMMENCER A PERDRE CERTAINES DE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES TOUT
EN CONSERVANT UNE BONNE INTENSITE GRACE A DES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES EN
MARGE D'UN TALWEG. IL EST MEME POSSIBLE QU'UNE BREVE TRANSITION
SUBTROPICALE S'OPERE JEUDI SOUS LE CUT-OFF DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.
MAIS ENTRE VENDREDI ET SAMEDI, AVEC UNE NOUVELLE HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT ET L'INFLUENCE CROISSANTE DE LA CIRCULATION DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR DEFINITIVEMENT ET ACHEVER
SA TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 130031
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/6/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 73.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/13 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2023/02/14 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 45

36H: 2023/02/14 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SW: 195 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 65

48H: 2023/02/15 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 230 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 100 NW: 0

60H: 2023/02/15 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 65

72H: 2023/02/16 00 UTC: 28.2 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/17 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 75 NW: 55

120H: 2023/02/18 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DINGANI HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF
INTENSIFICATION, WITH STRENGTHENING CONVECTION UPSTREAM OF THE
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR AND TEMPORARY LIGHTNING DETECTION IN
THE WESTERN EYEWALL AROUND 1930Z. THE 2048Z AMSR2 AND 2300Z SSMIS-F18
MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW A STRONGER AND MORE SYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE
INNER CORE THAN PREVIOUSLY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS IMPROVING
UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH A BUILDING OUTFLOW CHANNEL SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
ACCORDING TO CIMSS ANALYSIS, WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN DECREASING AND NOW
CLOSE TO 12KT. DVORAK EIR ANALYSIS HAS NOT IMPROVED THOUGH, WITH A DT
STILL AT 4.5-. THE SATCON AND ADT ESTIMATES HAVE NEVERTHELESS
CONTINUED TO INCREASE. THE PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS AT 1656Z SHOWED WINDS
AT 58KT, WHICH SUGGESTS MUCH HIGHER WINDS CONSIDERING THE SATURATION
OF THE MEASUREMENT IN THIS WIND RANGE. BASED ON THESE VARIOUS DATA,
THE SYSTEM'S ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS UPGRADED TO 75KT AT 00UTC, A
LITTLE ABOVE THE DVORAK ESTIMATE. DINGANI IS PROBABLY CLOSE TO ITS
PEAK INTENSITY.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
RETREATS EASTWARDS. THE EXPECTED WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
COMING DAYS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE DESCENT OF THE STEERING FLOW
LEVEL. THE TRACK WILL THUS CONTINUE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS,
ACCELERATING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERE
CUT-OFF TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. ON THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD SLOW DOWN IN A BAROMETRIC
COL AND ALMOST UNDER THE CUT-OFF, BEFORE RESUMING A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT AT THE END OF THE WEEK, BEING PROGRESSIVELY STEERED INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION. NWP MODEL DISPERSION HAS CLEARLY DECREASED
COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS, GIVING GOOD CONFIDENCE ON THIS
SCENARIO.

DINGANI'S ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MODERATELY FAVORABLE THIS MONDAY
MORNING WITH GOOD POLEWARD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A WEAK TO MODERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS, BY THIS MONDAY EVENING, SOME
MID-LEVEL NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD SET UP, GRADUALLY DRIVING DRY
AIR TOWARDS THE SYSTEM. THESE HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS, WHICH
WILL LAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, WILL BE COUPLED WITH DECREASING
OCEANIC POTENTIAL. IN THIS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, DINGANI WILL
ENTER A PROLONGED WEAKENING PHASE. FROM WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, IT
COULD START TO LOSE SOME OF ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE
KEEPING A GOOD INTENSITY THANKS TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES ALONG THE
EDGE OF A TROUGH. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT A SHORT SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION COULD TAKE PLACE ON THURSDAY UNDER THE CUT-OFF LOW. BUT
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND THE GROWING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION, SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
ONCE AND FOR ALL AND COMPLETE ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 130019
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/02/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 13/02/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DINGANI) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 73.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/13 AT 12 UTC:
19.3 S / 73.3 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/14 AT 00 UTC:
20.4 S / 72.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 17.8S 74.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 74.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 18.7S 73.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.6S 72.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.8S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 22.2S 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 25.9S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 27.9S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 29.6S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 74.2E.
12FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 980 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 121831
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/6/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 12/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.8 S / 74.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 977 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/02/2023 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 13/02/2023 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 14/02/2023 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 45

48H: 14/02/2023 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 130 NO: 65

60H: 15/02/2023 06 UTC: 25.1 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 0

72H: 15/02/2023 18 UTC: 27.1 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/02/2023 18 UTC: 29.0 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 95

120H: 17/02/2023 18 UTC: 30.1 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE DINGANI
EST RESTEE PRESENTE MAIS EN ETANT PAR MOMENTS MAL DEFINIE OU
ALLONGEE. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (SSMIS 1210Z ET 1334Z, GMI
1456Z) INDIQUENT UN ANNEAU CONVECTIF CENTRAL ENCORE ASSEZ PUISSANT
MALGRE UNE FAIBLESSE COTE NORD/NORD-EST. CETTE ASYMETRIE SE RETROUVE
AUSSI EN IMAGERIE SATELLITE INFRAROUGE AVEC DES SOMMETS TRES FROIDS
PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST, SIGNE DES EFFETS D'UN
CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE NORD-EST QUI TEMPERE L'INTENSIFICATION DU
SYSTEME, D'AUTANT QUE LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DE DINGANI A UN PEU
DIMINUE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE MOYENNEE SUR LES 6 DERNIERES
HEURES DONNE UN DT DE 4.5-. UNE PASSE SMOS A 1236Z INDIQUE DES VENTS
A 73KT. EN FAISANT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE CES DONNEES, ON PEUT ESTIMER
L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE DE DINGANI A 70KT ET ON PEUT ESTIMER A
POSTERIORI QUE CETTE INTENSITE ETAIT PROBABLEMENT DEJA ATTEINTE A
12UTC (LA BEST-TRACK SERA PROCHAINEMENT AMENDEE EN CE SENS).

LE SYSTEME POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN LIEN AVEC LE
RETRAIT VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE,
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME S'ACCOMPAGNERA DE LA DESCENTE DU NIVEAU
DU FLUX DIRECTEUR. LA TRAJECTOIRE S'ORIENTERA ALORS DAVANTAGE VERS LE
SUD, ENTRE UN CUT-OFF DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME ET
UNE DORSALE A L'EST ET AU SUD-EST. JEUDI, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT
RALENTIR DANS UN COL BAROMETRIQUE ET QUASIMENT SOUS LE CUT-OFF, AVANT
DE REPRENDRE UN MOUVEMENT VERS L'EST-SUD-EST EN FIN DE SEMAINE EN
ETANT PROGRESSIVEMENT REPRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES.

L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE DINGANI RESTE MODEREMENT FAVORABLE CETTE NUIT AVEC
UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE MAIS UN CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-EST QUI RESTE MODERE, CE QUI DEVRAIT FAIRE PLAFONNER L'INTENSITE
POUR LES 12 PROCHAINES HEURES. EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE LUNDI, UN
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST SE MET EN PLACE, ACCOMPAGNE
PROGRESSIVEMENT D'INTRUSIONS SECHES. CES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES
HOSTILES ET DURABLES POUR LE RESTE DE LA SEMAINE SE DOUBLENT D'UN
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE. DANS CET ENVIRONNEMENT DEFAVORABLE,
DINGANI DEVRAIT DONC S'AFFAIBLIR A PARTIR DE DEMAIN ET COMMENCER A SE
COMBLER EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE AVANT DE PASSER AU STADE DE DEPRESSION
RESIUDELLE POSSIBLEMENT JEUDI OU VENDREDI. IL EXISTE TOUT DE MEME DES
SCENARIOS QUI LIMITENT LA BAISSE D'INTENSITE ET CERTAINS PROPOSENT
PARFOIS UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION RELATIVE EN LIEN AVEC UN
ENVIRONNEMENT BAROCLINE VOIRE UNE EVOLUTION SUBTROPICALE TEMPORAIRE
SOUS LE CUT-OFF ENTRE MERCREDI SOIR ET JEUDI. L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
S'ANNONCE ENSUITE DEFINITIF ENTRE VENDREDI ET SAMEDI ALORS QUE LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT DEVENIR POST-TROPICAL AU SUD DU 30E
PARALLELE SUD. LA DISPERSION ENTRE MODELES A NETTEMENT BAISSE PAR
RAPPORT A CES DERNIERS JOURS, APPORTANT DONC UNE MEILLEURE CONFIANCE
SUR CE SCENARIO PREVU.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 121831
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/6/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 74.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/13 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2023/02/13 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2023/02/14 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45

48H: 2023/02/14 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 65

60H: 2023/02/15 06 UTC: 25.1 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 0

72H: 2023/02/15 18 UTC: 27.1 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/16 18 UTC: 29.0 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 95

120H: 2023/02/17 18 UTC: 30.1 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, DINGANI HAS KEPT AN EYE PATTERN WHICH HAS
BEEN MORE OR LESS RAGGED OR ELONGATED AT TIMES. THE LAST MICROWAVE
IMAGES (SSMIS 1210Z AND 1334Z, GMI 1456Z) SHOW A STILL QUITE STRONG
CENTRAL CONVECTIVE CORE DESPITE A WEAKNESS ON ITS NORTH/NORTH-EAST
SIDE. THIS ASYMMETRY IS ALSO FOUND IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, SIGN OF THE
EFFECTS OF A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH MODERATES THE
SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION, ESPECIALLY AS DINGANI'S SPEED OF MOVEMENT
HAS DECREASED A LITTLE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS AVERAGED OVER THE
LAST 6 HOURS GIVES A DT OF 4.5-. A SMOS PASS AT 1236Z INDICATES WINDS
AT 73KT. WE CAN THUS ESTIMATE DINGANI'S CURRENT INTENSITY AT 70KT AND
WE CAN ESTIMATE A POSTERIORI THAT THIS INTENSITY HAD PROBABLY ALREADY
BEEN REACHED AT 12UTC (THE BEST-TRACK WILL BE CORRECTED ACCORDINGLY).

THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS SOUTH-WESTWARD TRACK AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WITHDRAWS EASTWARDS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, THE SYSTEM'S
WEAKENING TREND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE DESCENT OF THE STEERING
FLOW LEVEL. THE MOVEMENT WILL THEN SHIFT A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD,
BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERE CUT-OFF LOW TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. ON THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD SLOW
DOWN WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL AND ALMOST UNDER THE MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF
LOW, BEFORE RESUMING AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WHILE BEING GRADUALLY DRIVEN INTO THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION.

DINGANI'S ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MODERATELY CONDUCIVE TONIGHT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD UPPER DIVERGENCE BUT SOME REMNANT MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD CAP THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
AS FROM MONDAY, NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL SET UP, GRADUALLY DRIVING
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR TOWARDS THE SYSTEM. THESE HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL LAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, WILL ALSO BE
COUPLED WITH DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL. IN THIS UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, DINGANI SHOULD START WEAKENING FROM TOMORROW AND START
TO FILL IN MID-WEEK BEFORE BECOMING A REMNANT LOW POSSIBLY ON
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS, SOME SCENARIOS LIMIT THE SYSTEM'S
WEAKENING AND SOME EVEN SUGGEST A NEW RELATIVE INTENSIFICATION IN
CONNECTION WITH A MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT OR EVEN A TEMPORARY
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION UNDER THE CUT-OFF BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND THURSDAY. THE WEAKENING IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE DEFINITIVE BETWEEN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME
POST-TROPICAL SOUTH OF THE 30TH SOUTH PARALLEL. NWP MODEL DISPERSION
HAS CLEARLY DECREASED COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS, THUS BRINGING A
BETTER CONFIDENCE ON THIS FORECAST SCENARIO.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 121817
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/02/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 12/02/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DINGANI) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 74.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/13 AT 06 UTC:
18.8 S / 73.5 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/13 AT 18 UTC:
19.8 S / 72.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 121222
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/6/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 12/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 74.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/02/2023 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 13/02/2023 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 14/02/2023 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

48H: 14/02/2023 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 45

60H: 15/02/2023 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 85

72H: 15/02/2023 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 100

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/02/2023 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SO: 185 NO: 95


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE DINGANI
S'EST CONSOLIDEE, AUSSI BIEN SUR L'IMAGERIE VISIBLE QU'INFRAROUGE. DE
PLUS, L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE AMSR2 DE 0817Z MONTRE AUSSI UN OEIL BIEN
DEFINI, AVEC UNE CONVECTION PROFONDE TOUT AUTOUR DU CENTRE. EN ACCORD
AVEC LES ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES, DINGANI EST
DONC CLASSE EN CYCLONE TROPICAL AVEC DES VENTS DE 65KT.

LE SYSTEME POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN LIEN AVEC LE
RETRAIT VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME S'ACCOMPAGNERA DE LA DESCENTE
DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR AVEC UNE COMPOSANTE ZONALE PLUS FORTE.
TOUTEFOIS, A PARTIR DE MARDI, LES MODELES DETERMINISTES ET
ENSEMBLISTES EUROPEENS ET AMERICAINS DIVERGENT. LA TENDANCE
AMERICAINE PROPOSE UN RALENTISSEMENT ET UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS
RAPIDE, ALORS QUE LA TENDANCE EUROPEENNE PROPOSE UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS
RAPIDE VERS LE SUD AINSI QU'UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS LENT. MA ME SI
L'ENSEMBLE AMERICAIN TEND A SE RAPPROCHER DE L'ENSEMBLE EUROPEEN, IL
EXISTE ENCORE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE. LA TRAJECTOIRE
PREVUE PAR LE CMRS SUIT UN SCENARIO MEDIAN, MAIS EN DONNANT PLUS DE
POIDS A L'EPS EUROPEEN QUI SEMBLE PLUS STABLE ET MOINS DISPERSE QUE
L'AMERICAIN.

L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE DINGANI DEVRAIT RESTER FAVORABLE DANS LES
PROCHAINES HEURES AVEC LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST ET UN
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE. CES CONDITIONS
FAVORABLES SE MAINTIENNENT EN COURS DE NUIT PROCHAINE ET LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE SON MAXIMUM D'INTENSITE. PUIS AU COURS DE LA
JOURNEE DE DEMAIN, UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST SE MET EN PLACE,
ACCOMPAGNE PROGRESSIVEMENT D'INTRUSIONS SECHES. CES CONDITIONS
ATMOSPHERIQUES HOSTILES ET DURABLES POUR LE RESTE DE LA SEMAINE SE
DOUBLENT D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE. DANS CET ENVIRONNEMENT
DEFAVORABLE, DINGANI DEVRAIT DONC S'AFFAIBLIR A PARTIR DE DEMAIN ET
COMMENCER A SE COMBLER EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE AVANT DE PASSER AU STADE
DE DEPRESSION RESIUDELLE POSSIBLEMENT JEUDI OU VENDREDI. IL EXISTE
TOUT DE MEME DES SCENARIOS (IFS NOTAMMENT) QUI LIMITENT LA BAISSE
D'INTENSITE ET CERTAINS PROPOSENT PARFOIS UNE NOUVELLE
INTENSIFICATION EN LIEN AVEC UN ENVIRONNEMENT BAROCLINE. TOUTEFOIS
CES SCENARIOS NE SONT PAS PRIVILEGIES ET LA PRESENTE PREVISION N'EN
TIENT PAS COMPTE.

IL N'Y A PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 121222
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/6/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 74.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/13 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2023/02/13 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2023/02/14 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

48H: 2023/02/14 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45

60H: 2023/02/15 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 85

72H: 2023/02/15 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 100

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/16 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 95


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE CONFIGURATION OF DINGANI HAS BEEN
CONSOLIDATED, BOTH ON VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY. IN ADDITION, THE
AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 0817Z ALSO SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED EYE, WITH
DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES, DINGANI IS THEREFORE CLASSIFIED AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS OF 65KT.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS SOUTH-WESTERN TRACK IN CONNECTION WITH THE
EASTWARD RETREAT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK, THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE DESCENT
OF THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW WITH A STRONGER ZONAL COMPONENT.
HOWEVER, FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, THE EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN DETERMINIST
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DIVERGE. THE U.S. TREND SUGGESTS A FASTER
SLOWDOWN AND WEAKENING, WHILE THE EUROPEAN TREND SUGGESTS A FASTER
MOVE SOUTH AND A SLOWER WEAKENING. EVEN THOUGH THE U.S. ENSEMBLE IS
TRENDING CLOSER TO THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE TRACK. THE RSMC TRACK FOLLOWS A MEDIUM SCENARIO, BUT GIVES
MORE WEIGHT TO THE EUROPEAN EPS, WHICH SEEMS MORE STABLE AND LESS
DISTRIBUTED THAN THE AMERICAN.

THE ENVIRONMENT OF DINGANI SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH THE DECREASE OF THE NORTHEAST SHEAR AND A STRENGTHENING OF
THE POLAR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE
MAINTAINED DURING THE NEXT NIGHT AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH ITS
MAXIMUM INTENSITY. THEN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, A NORTH-WESTERLY
SHEAR WILL SET UP, PROGRESSIVELY ACCOMPANIED BY DRY INTRUSIONS. THESE
HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL LAST FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK, ARE COUPLED WITH A DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL. IN THIS
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, DINGANI SHOULD WEAKEN FROM TOMORROW AND
START TO FILL IN MID-WEEK BEFORE BECOMING A RESIUDAL DEPRESSION
POSSIBLY ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THERE ARE NEVERTHELESS SCENARIOS (IFS
IN PARTICULAR) WHICH LIMIT THE DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND SOME
SOMETIMES PROPOSE A NEW INTENSIFICATION IN CONNECTION WITH A
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, THESE SCENARIOS ARE NOT PRIVILEGED
AND THE PRESENT FORECAST DOES NOT TAKE THEM INTO ACCOUNT.

THERE IS NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 121209
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/02/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 12/02/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DINGANI) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 74.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/13 AT 00 UTC:
18.3 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/13 AT 12 UTC:
19.2 S / 73.2 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 16.7S 75.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 75.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.7S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 18.7S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.7S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.8S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 23.9S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 25.5S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 26.6S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 75.2E.
12FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1055 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 122100Z AND 130900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 120625
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/6/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 12/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.7 S / 75.6 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/02/2023 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 175 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 13/02/2023 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 13/02/2023 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 14/02/2023 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45

60H: 14/02/2023 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 45

72H: 15/02/2023 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 260 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/02/2023 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SO: 0 NO: 0

120H: 17/02/2023 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION ASSOCIEE A DINGANI A
ETE FLUCTUANTE, AVEC UN REGAIN D'ACTIVITE TEMPORAIRE AU LEVER DU
JOUR. LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE, D'ABORD EN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA
MASSE, A LAISSE APPARAITRE UN OEIL SUR L'IMAGERIE VISIBLE CES
DERNIERES HEURES. EN ABSENCE DE NOUVELLES DONNEES SATELLITES
DISPONIBLES (MICRO-ONDE OU PASSE ASCAT), L'INTENSITE DE DINGANI EST
MAINTENUE A 60KT, EN ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES ET
OBJECTIVES.

LE SYSTEME POURSUIT SON VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN LIEN AVEC LE
RETRAIT VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME S'ACCOMPAGNERA DE LA DESCENTE
DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR AVEC UNE COMPOSANTE ZONALE PLUS FORTE.
TOUTEFOIS, IL Y A ENCORE DE L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA VITESSE DE CET
AFFAIBLISSEMENT (GFS BEAUCOUP PLUS RAPIDE QUE IFS) CE QUI CONDUIT A
DES SCENARIOS ASSEZ DIFFERENTS DANS LES SIMULATIONS DETERMINISTES ET
ENSEMBLISTES. DE PLUS POUR LES TRAJECTOIRES LES PLUS SUD, LE SYSTEME
POURRAIT EGALEMENT ETRE ATTIRE ET INTERAGIR AVEC UN CUT-OFF DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES RENFORCANT LA DISPERSION. LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE
PAR LE CMRS SUIT UN SCENARIO MEDIAN, LEGEREMENT PLUS SUD PAR RAPPORT
A LA PREVISION PRECEDENTE EN SE BASANT SUR UN EPS EUROPEEN MOINS
DISPERSE QUE L'AMERICAIN. CEPENDANT, DANS CE CONTEXTE, LA TRAJECTOIRE
RESTE TRES INCERTAINE AU DELA DE MARDI.

L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE DINGANI DEVRAIT RESTER FAVORABLE DANS LES
PROCHAINES HEURES AVEC LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST ET UN
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE. DINGANI
DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES. EN COURS DE NUIT PROCHAINE, UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST SE
MET EN PLACE ET DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER LUNDI, ACCOMPAGNE D'INTRUSIONS
SECHES. CES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES HOSTILES ET DURABLES POUR LE
RESTE DE LA SEMAINE SE DOUBLENT D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE.
DANS CET ENVIRONNEMENT DEFAVORABLE, DINGANI DEVRAIT DONC S'AFFAIBLIR.
IL EXISTE TOUT DE MEME DES SCENARIOS (IFS NOTAMMENT) QUI LIMITENT LA
BAISSE D'INTENSITE ET CERTAINS PROPOSENT PARFOIS UNE NOUVELLE
INTENSIFICATION EN LIEN AVEC UN ENVIRONNEMENT BAROCLINE. TOUTEFOIS
CES SCENARIOS SONT ENCORE TRES INCERTAINS ET LA PRESENTE PREVISION
N'EN TIENT PAS COMPTE.

IL N'Y A PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 120625
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/6/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/12 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 75.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/12 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2023/02/13 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2023/02/13 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2023/02/14 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45

60H: 2023/02/14 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45

72H: 2023/02/15 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/16 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2023/02/17 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DINGANI HAS
BEEN FLUCTUATING, WITH A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. THE CLOUD PATTERN, INITIALLY IN THE CENTER OF
THE MASS, HAS SHOWN AN EYE ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY DURING THE LAST
HOURS. IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW SATELLITE DATA AVAILABLE (MICROWAVE OR
ASCAT PASS), THE INTENSITY OF DINGANI IS MAINTAINED AT 60KT, IN
CONCORDANCE WITH THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN RELATION WITH THE
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED TO THE LOWERING OF THE
STEERING FLOW LEVEL WHITH A MORE ZONAL TRACK. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPEED OF THIS WEAKENING (GFS MUCH FASTER THAN
IFS) WHICH LEADS TO QUITE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS IN DETERMINIST AND
ENSEMBLE SIMULATIONS. MOREOVER FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST TRACKS, THE
SYSTEM COULD ALSO BE ATTRACTED AND INTERACT WITH A MID-LATITUDE
CUT-OFF STRENGTHENING THE SPREAD. THE TRACK FORECAST BY RSMC FOLLOWS
A MEDIAN SCENARIO, SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON A EUROPEAN EPS LESS DISPERSED THAN THE AMERICAN ONE.
HOWEVER, IN THIS CONTEXT, THE TRACK REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN BEYOND
TUESDAY.

DINGANI'S ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE AT SHORT RANGE WITH THE
DECREASE OF THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEARAND THE STRENGTHENING OF THE POLAR
SIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. DINGANI SHOULD REACH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE IN THE NEXT HOURS. TONIGHT, A NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SET
UP AND SHOULD STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH DRY INTRUSIONS.
THESE HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL LAST FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK, ARE COUPLED WITH A DECREASE OF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL. IN
THIS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, DINGANI SHOULD WEAKEN. THERE ARE
NEVERTHELESS SCENARIOS (IFS IN PARTICULAR) WHICH LIMIT THE DECREASE
IN INTENSITY AND SOMETIMES SUGGEST A NEW INTENSIFICATION IN RELATION
WITH A BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, THESE SCENARIOS ARE STILL
VERY UNCERTAIN AND THE PRESENT FORECAST DOES NOT TAKE THEM INTO
ACCOUNT.

THERE IS NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 120608
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/02/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 12/02/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 75.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/12 AT 18 UTC:
17.6 S / 74.6 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/13 AT 06 UTC:
18.6 S / 73.8 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 120033
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/6/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 12/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.3 S / 76.3 E
(SEIZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/02/2023 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 13/02/2023 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 13/02/2023 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 14/02/2023 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SO: 195 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

60H: 14/02/2023 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

72H: 15/02/2023 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SO: 185 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 195 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/02/2023 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SO: 95 NO: 0

120H: 17/02/2023 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

L'INTENSIFICATION DE DINGANI SEMBLE AVOIR REPRIS AVEC UNE NETTE
AMELIORATION DE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE, ET UN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA
MASSE. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 DE 2005Z ET SURTOUT SSMIS DE
2313Z MONTRENT EGALEMENT UN OEIL MIEUX DEFINI EN 89GHZ. EN ACCORD
AVEC LES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES, L'INTENSITE EST REHAUSSEE A
60KT.

LE SYSTEME A AMORCE UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN LIEN AVEC LE
RETRAIT VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME S'ACCOMPAGNERA DE LA DESCENTE
DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR AVEC UNE COMPOSANTE ZONALE PLUS FORTE.
TOUTEFOIS, IL Y A ENCORE DE L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA VITESSE DE CETTE
AFFAIBLISSEMENT (GFS BEAUCOUP PLUS RAPIDE QUE IFS) CE QUI CONDUIT A
DES SCENARIOS ASSEZ DIFFERENTS DANS LES SIMULATIONS DETERMINISTES ET
ENSEMBLISTES. DE PLUS POUR LES TRAJECTOIRES LES PLUS SUD, LE SYSTEME
POURRAIT EGALEMENT ETRE ATTIRE ET INTERAGIR AVEC UN CUT-OFF DES
MOYENENS LATITUDES RENFORCANT LA DISPERSION. LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE
SUIT UN SCENARIO MEDIAN PROCHE DU CONSENSUS AMERICAIN CONW, MAIS
ETANT DONNE LE CONTEXTE, ELLE RESTE TRES INCERATINE AU DELA DE MARDI.

L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE DINGANI DEVRAIT RESTER FAVORABLE DANS LES
PROCHAINES HEURES AVEC LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST ET UN
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE. DINGANI
DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL DANS LES PROCHAINES 24
HEURES. EN COURS DE NUIT PROCHAINE, UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST SE
MET EN PLACE ET DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER LUNDI, ACCOMPAGNE D'INTRUSIONS
SECHES. CES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES HOSTILES ET DURABLES POUR LE
RESTE DE LA SEMAINE SE DOUBLENT D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE.
DANS CET ENVIRONNEMENT DEFAVORABLE, DINGANI DEVRAIT DONC S'AFFAIBLIR.
IL EXISTE TOUT DE MEME DES SCENARIOS (IFS NOTAMMENT) QUI LIMITENT LA
BAISSE D'INTENSITE ET PROPOSENT PARFOIS UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION
EN LIEN AVEC UN ENVIRONNEMENT BAROCLINE. TOUTEFOIS CES SCENARIOS SONT
ENCORE TRES INCERTAINS ET LA PRESENTE PREVISION N'EN TIENT PAS
COMPTE.


SELON LE SCENARIO PRIVILEGIE ACTUELLEMENT, DINGANI DEVRAIT PASSER A
UNE DISTANCE SUFFISANTE DE RODRIGUES POUR NE PAS PRESENTER DE MENACE
SIGNIFICATIVE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 120033
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/6/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/12 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 76.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/12 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2023/02/13 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2023/02/13 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2023/02/14 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

60H: 2023/02/14 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

72H: 2023/02/15 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 195 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/16 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SW: 95 NW: 0

120H: 2023/02/17 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

THE INTENSIFICATION OF DINGANI APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED WITH A
NOTICEABLE IMPROVEMENT OF THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION, AND AN EMBEDDED
CENTER. THE 2005Z AMSR2 AND ESPECIALLY THE 2313Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGES ALSO SHOW A BETTER DEFINED EYE IN 89GHZ. IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS, THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60KT.

THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED A SOUTHWESTERLY TURN IN RELATION WITH THE
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED TO THE LOWERING OF THE
STEERING FLOW LEVEL WHITH A MORE ZONAL TRACK. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPEED OF THIS WEAKENING (GFS MUCH FASTER THAN
IFS) WHICH LEADS TO QUITE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS IN DETERMINIST AND
ENSEMBLE SIMULATIONS. MOREOVER FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST TRACKS, THE
SYSTEM COULD ALSO BE ATTRACTED AND INTERACT WITH A MID-LATITUDE
CUT-OFF STRENGTHENING THE SPREAD. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A MEDIAN
SCENARIO CLOSE TO THE AMRICAN CONSENSUS CONW BUT GIVEN THE CONTEXT,
IT REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN BEYOND TUESDAY.

DINGANI'S ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE AT SHORT RANGE WITH THE
DECREASE OF THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEARAND THE STRENGTHENING OF THE POLAR
SIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. DINGANI SHOULD REACH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TONIGHT, A NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
SET UP AND SHOULD STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH DRY
INTRUSIONS. THESE HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL LAST FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK, ARE COUPLED WITH A DECREASE OF THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL. IN THIS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, DINGANI SHOULD WEAKEN.
THERE ARE NEVERTHELESS SCENARIOS (IFS IN PARTICULAR) WHICH LIMIT THE
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND SOMETIMES SUGGEST A NEW INTENSIFICATION IN
RELATION WITH A BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, THESE SCENARIOS ARE
STILL VERY UNCERTAIN AND THE PRESENT FORECAST DOES NOT TAKE THEM INTO
ACCOUNT.

ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST, DINGANI SHOULD TRACK AT A
SUFFICIENT DISTANCE FROM RODRIGUES FOR NOT POSING ANY SIGNIFICANT
THREAT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 120021
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/02/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 12/02/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 76.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/12 AT 12 UTC:
17.4 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/13 AT 00 UTC:
18.3 S / 74.0 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 77.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 77.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.7S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.7S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 18.6S 73.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.6S 72.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.7S 71.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 23.3S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 24.6S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 76.9E.
11FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
599 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 111840
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/6/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 11/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.9 S / 77.6 E
(QUINZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 50 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/02/2023 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 12/02/2023 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 13/02/2023 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 13/02/2023 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55

60H: 14/02/2023 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SO: 215 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 95

72H: 14/02/2023 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 350 SO: 230 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/02/2023 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 85

120H: 16/02/2023 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 120

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

DINGANI SOUFFRE TOUJOURS DE LA PRESENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE
D'EST A NORD-EST QUI LIMITE SON DEVELOPPEMENT. LE CENTRE SE SITUE
TOUJOURS PROBABLEMENT EN BORDURE EST DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE
PRINCIPALE COMME MONTRE PAR LA PASSE SSMIS DE 1348Z. UNE PASSE SMAP A
1254Z DONNAIT 50KT EN ESTIMATION DU VENT MAXIMAL. L'INTENSITE EST
DONC MAINTENUE A 50KT.

LE SYSTEME A AMORCE UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN LIEN AVEC LE
RETRAIT VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME S'ACCOMPAGNERA DE LA DESCENTE
DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR. TOUTEFOIS, IL Y A ENCORE UNE INCERTITUDE
SUR LA VITESSE DE CETTE AFFAIBLISSEMENT (GFS BEAUCOUP PLUS RAPIDE QUE
IFS) CE QUI CONDUIT A DES SCENARIOS ASSEZ DIFFERENTS DANS LES
SIMULATIONS DETERMINISTES ET ENSEMBLISTES. DE PLUS POUR LES
TRAJECTOIRES LES PLUS SUD, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT EGALEMENT ETRE ATTIRE
ET INTERAGIR AVEC UN CUT-OFF DES MOYENENS LATITUDES RENFORCANT LA
DISPERSION. LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE SUIT UN SCENARIO MEDIAN PROCHE DU
MODELE ARPEGE ET DE LA MOYENNE DE L'EPS 00Z, MAIS ETANT DONNE LE
CONTEXTE, ELLE RESTE TRES INCERATINE AU DELA DE MARDI.

L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE DINGANI DEVRAIT S'AMELIORER AVEC UNE BAISSE
PROGRESSIVE DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES UN
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE DIMANCHE. UNE
INTENSIFICATION EST DONC ATTENDUE ET DINGANI POURRAIT ATTEINDRE LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 A 36 HEURES. EN
JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE, UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST SE MET EN PLACE ET
DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER LUNDI, ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE INTRUSION SECHE. CES
CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES HOSTILES ET DURABLES POUR LE RESTE DE LA
SEMAINE SE DOUBLENT D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE. DANS CET
ENVIRONNEMENT DEFAVORABLE, DINGANI DEVRAIT DONC S'AFFAIBLIR. IL
EXISTE TOUT DE MEME DES SCENARIOS (IFS NOTAMMENT) QUI LIMITENT LA
BAISSE D'INTENSITE ET PROPOSENT PARFOIS UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICAITON
EN LIEN AVEC UN ENVIRONNEMENT BAROCLINE. TOUTEFOIS CES SCENARIOS SONT
ENCORE TRES INCERTAINS ET LA PRESENTE PREVISION N'EN TIENT PAS
COMPTE.


SELON LE SCENARIO PRIVILEGIE ACTUELLEMENT, DINGANI DEVRAIT PASSER A
UNE DISTANCE SUFFISANTE DE RODRIGUES POUR NE PAS PRESENTER DE MENACE
SIGNIFICATIVE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 111840
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/6/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 77.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 50 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/12 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2023/02/12 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2023/02/13 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2023/02/13 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

60H: 2023/02/14 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 95

72H: 2023/02/14 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 350 SW: 230 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/15 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 85

120H: 2023/02/16 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

DINGANI STILL SUFFERS FROM THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATE EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT LIMITS ITS DEVELOPMENT. THE CENTER IS
PROBABLY STILL LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AS SHOWN BY THE 1348Z SSMIS PASS. A SMAP PASS AT 1254Z GAVE
50KT AS AN ESTIMATION OF THE MAXIMUM WIND. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE
MAINTAINED AT 50KT.

THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED A SOUTHWESTERLY TURN IN RELATION WITH THE
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWERING OF THE
STEERING FLOW LEVEL. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
SPEED OF THIS WEAKENING (GFS MUCH FASTER THAN IFS) WHICH LEADS TO
QUITE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS IN DETERMINIST AND ENSEMBLE SIMULATIONS.
MOREOVER FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST TRACKS, THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO BE
ATTRACTED AND INTERACT WITH A MID-LATITUDE CUT-OFF STRENGTHENING THE
SPREAD. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A MEDIAN SCENARIO CLOSE TO THE
ARPEGE MODEL AND TO THE EPS 00Z MEAN, BUT GIVEN THE CONTEXT, IT
REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN BEYOND TUESDAY.

DINGANI'S ENVIRONMENT SHOULD IMPROVE WITH A PROGRESSIVE DECREASE OF
THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IN THE FOLLOWING HOURS AND THE STRENGTHENING
OF THE POLAR SIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON SUNDAY. INTENSIFICATION
IS THUS EXPECTED AND DINGANI COULD REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE
IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON SUNDAY, A NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
DEVELOPING AND SHOULD STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH DRY
INTRUSIONS. THESE HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL LAST FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK, ARE COUPLED WITH A DECREASE OF THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL. IN THIS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, DINGANI SHOULD WEAKEN.
THERE ARE NEVERTHELESS SCENARIOS (IFS IN PARTICULAR) WHICH LIMIT THE
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND SOMETIMES SUGGEST A NEW INTENSIFICATION IN
RELATION WITH A BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, THESE SCENARIOS ARE
STILL VERY UNCERTAIN AND THE PRESENT FORECAST DOES NOT TAKE THEM INTO
ACCOUNT.

ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST, DINGANI SHOULD TRACK AT A
SUFFICIENT DISTANCE FROM RODRIGUES FOR NOT POSING ANY SIGNIFICANT
THREAT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 111819
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/02/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 11/02/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 77.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 25
NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/12 AT 06 UTC:
16.6 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/12 AT 18 UTC:
17.7 S / 74.5 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 111232
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/6/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 11/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.8 S / 78.3 E
(QUINZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/02/2023 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 12/02/2023 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 195 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

36H: 13/02/2023 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 13/02/2023 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 14/02/2023 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 65

72H: 14/02/2023 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/02/2023 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SO: 220 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 65

120H: 16/02/2023 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 95

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

DINGANI N'A PAS MONTRE D'EVOLUTION PARTICULIERE EN TERMES D'INTENSITE
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES. LA CONVECTION EST RESTEE
RELATIVEMENT MODEREE ET FLUCTUANTE, PROBABLEMENT SOUS L'EFFET
RESIDUEL DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST. CELA EST CONFIRME PAR L'IMAGE
MICRO-ONDES SSMIS-F16 DE 1223Z MONTRANT UN COEUR CONVECTIF ERODE DU
COTE NORD-EST. L'OUTFLOW DE CIRRUS A PAR AILLEURS CONTINUE A
S'AMELIORER, INDIQUANT UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. EN L'ABSENCE
DE NOUVELLES DONNEES OBJECTIVES, L'INTENSITE EST DONC MAINTENUE
STATIONNAIRE A 50KT, ENCORE LEGEREMENT AU-DESSUS DES ESTIMATIONS
SATCON ET ADT.

LE SYSTEME VA AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST A PARTIR DE CE SOIR
EN LIEN AVEC LE RETRAIT VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. EN
DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME
S'ACCOMPAGNERA DE LA DESCENTE DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR, MAIS CE
DERNIER EST TRES INCERTAIN A PARTIR DE MARDI, AVEC UNE DISPERSION
SIGNIFICATIVE ENTRE LES SCENARIOS DETERMINISTES ET ENSEMBLISTES. LE
SYSTEME POURRAIT EN EFFET ETRE PLUS OU MOINS ATTIRE VERS LE SUD PAR
UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, DONT L'INTERACTION AVEC
DINGANI RESTE TRES INCERTAINE. LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE SUIT UN SCENARIO
MEDIAN ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES MAIS RESTE ASSORTIE
D'UNE INCERTITUDE IMPORTANTE.

L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE DINGANI DEVRAIT S'AMELIORER AVEC UNE BAISSE
PROGRESSIVE DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST LA NUIT PROCHAINE ET UN
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE DIMANCHE. UNE
INTENSIFICATION EST DONC ATTENDUE ET DINGANI POURRAIT ATTEINDRE LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 A 36 HEURES. EN
JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE, UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST EN MOYENNE
TROPOSHERE SE MET EN PLACE ET POURRAIT SE RENFORCER LUNDI, ACCOMPAGNE
D'UNE INTRUSION SECHE. CES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES HOSTILES ET
DURABLES POUR LE RESTE DE LA SEMAINE SE DOUBLENT D'UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE. DANS CET ENVIRONNEMENT DEFAVORABLE, DINGANI
DEVRAIT DONC S'AFFAIBLIR, POTENTIELLEMENT ASSEZ RAPIDEMENT. UNE
EVOLUTION EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE EST PROPOSEE A PARTIR DE MERCREDI,
MAIS LA DISPERSION EST IMPORTANTE ENTRE SCENARIOS ET D'AUTRES
VARIANTES SONT POSSIBLES (NOTAMMENT UNE EVENTUELLE TRANSITION
SUBTROPICALE SOUS UN CUT-OFF, SCENARIO SUGGERE PAR LES RUNS DE 00UTC
DE GFS ET IFS).

SELON LE SCENARIO PRIVILEGIE ACTUELLEMENT, DINGANI DEVRAIT PASSER A
UNE DISTANCE SUFFISANTE DE RODRIGUES POUR NE PAS PRESENTER DE MENACE
SIGNIFICATIVE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 111232
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/6/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 78.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/12 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2023/02/12 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

36H: 2023/02/13 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2023/02/13 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2023/02/14 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 65

72H: 2023/02/14 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/15 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 65

120H: 2023/02/16 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

DINGANI'S INTENSITY HASN'T CHANGED MUCH DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS.
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY MODERATE AND FLUCTUATING, PROBABLY
DUE TO REMNANT EFFECTS OF THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THIS IS CONFIRMED
BY THE 1223Z SSMIS-F16 MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A WEAKER
CONVECTIVE INNER CORE ON ITS NORTHEASTERN SIDE. ON THE OTHER HAND,
CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE, INDICATING GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW OBJECTIVE DATA, THE INTENSITY HAS
BEEN KEPT STATIONARY AT 50KT, STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE SATCON AND ADT
ESTIMATES.

THE SYSTEM WILL START A SOUTH-WESTERN TURN FROM THIS EVENING IN
CONNECTION WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW WILL
MOVE TO LOWER LEVELS BUT WILL REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS, WITH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLIST SCENARIOS DISPLAYING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DISPERSION. THE SYSTEM COULD INDEED BE MORE OR LESS
ATTRACTED SOUTHWARD BY A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHOSE
INTERACTION WITH DINGANI REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. THE FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS A MEDIAN SCENARIO BASED ON THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, BUT
REMAINS SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY.

DINGANI'S ENVIRONMENT SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVERNIGHT AND STRENGTHENING
POLEWARD UPPER DIVERGENCE ON SUNDAY. AN INTENSIFICATION IS THUS
EXPECTED AND DINGANI COULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. ON SUNDAY, A NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD
DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION.
THESE HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS, WHICH SHOULD LAST FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK, SHOULD BE COUPLED WITH DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL. IN
THIS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, DINGANI SHOULD WEAKEN, POTENTIALLY
QUITE QUICKLY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW FROM
WEDNESDAY, BUT DISPERSION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AND OTHER POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES AREN'T RULED OUT (NOTABLY A POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION
UNDER A CUT-OFF LOW, AS SUGGESTED BY TODAY'S GFS AND IFS 00UTC RUNS).

ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST SCENARIO, DINGANI SHOULD TRACK AT A
SUFFICIENT DISTANCE FROM RODRIGUES FOR NOT POSING ANY SIGNIFICANT
THREAT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 111219
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/02/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 11/02/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 78.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 20
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/12 AT 00 UTC:
16.5 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/12 AT 12 UTC:
17.5 S / 75.0 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 15.5S 79.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 79.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.8S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.6S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.5S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 18.4S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.2S 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 22.0S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 23.8S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 78.8E.
11FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
643 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 110624
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/6/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 11/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.6 S / 79.3 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 40 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/02/2023 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 12/02/2023 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 12/02/2023 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 13/02/2023 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

60H: 13/02/2023 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 95

72H: 14/02/2023 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SO: 215 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/02/2023 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 305 SO: 230 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 100

120H: 16/02/2023 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SO: 240 NO: 175

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES HEURES DE LA MATINEE, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE
DINGANI A CONTINUE A S'AMELIORER LEGEREMENT AVEC UNE STRUCTURE EN
BANDE INCURVEE BIEN DESSINEE ET UN BEL OUTFLOW DE CIRRUS, MALGRE UN
LEGER RECHAUFFEMENT DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS
DE LA FIN DE NUIT CONFIRMENT L'AMELIORATION DE STRUCTURE DU SYSTEME.
LES DONNEES PARTIELLES SMOS ET SMAP ENTRE 00 ET 01UTC INDIQUENT DES
VENTS AUTOUR DE 45KT ET L'ESTIMATION SATCON SE SITUE ENTRE 45 ET 50
KT. L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME EST DONC MAINTENUE A 50KT A 06UTC.

LE SYSTEME SE DIRIGE ENCORE CE SAMEDI EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST, EN BORDURE NORD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, MAIS A PARTIR DE
DIMANCHE, AVEC LE RETRAIT VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE DINGANI DEVRAIT DEVENIR PLUS MERIDIENNE. EN DEBUT DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME S'ACCOMPAGNE DE LA
DESCENTE DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR. TOUTEFOIS LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE BASSES COUCHES NE DEVRAIT PAS ETRE BIEN SOLIDE ET
TOUS LES MODELES DETERMINISTES FIABLES S'ACCORDENT ENCORE POUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST. ON NOTE TOUJOURS AVEC
LES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES, UNE AUGMENTATION DE L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE A PARTIR DE LUNDI MAIS CELLE-CI TEND A SE REDUIRE PAR
RAPPORT A HIER.

L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE DINGANI EST EN TRAIN DE S'AMELIORER AVEC UNE
BAISSE PROGRESSIVE DU CISAILLEMENT D'EST-NORD-EST, ESTIME DESORMAIS A
PRES DE 15KT. DIMANCHE, LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE DEVRAIT
EGALEMENT SE RENFORCER. UNE INTENSIFICATION DEVENANT PLUS RAPIDE EST
DONC ATTENDUE ET DINGANI POURRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL EN COURS DE WEEK-END. EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE, UN
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSHERE SE MET EN PLACE ET
POURRAIT SE RENFORCER LA NUIT SUIVANTE, ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE INTRUSION
SECHE. CES CONDITIONS HOSTILES ET DURABLES POUR LE RESTE DE LA
SEMAINE AU NIVEAU DE L'ATMOSPHERE, SE DOUBLENT D'UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE. DANS CET ENVIRONNEMENT DEFAVORABLE, DINGANI
DEVRAIT DONC S'AFFAIBLIR, POTENTIELLEMENT ASSEZ RAPIDEMENT.

SELON LE SCENARIO PRIVILEGIE ACTUELLEMENT, DINGANI DEVRAIT PASSER A
UNE DISTANCE SUFFISANTE DE RODRIGUES POUR NE PAS PRESENTER DE MENACE
SIGNIFICATIVE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 110624
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/6/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 79.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 40 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/11 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2023/02/12 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2023/02/12 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2023/02/13 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2023/02/13 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 95

72H: 2023/02/14 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/15 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 100

120H: 2023/02/16 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 175

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

DURING THE MORNING HOURS, DINGANI'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
SLIGHTLY IMPROVE WITH A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND STRUCTURE AND SOME
NICE CIRRUS OUTFLOW, DESPITE A SLIGHT WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS. SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM THE END OF LAST NIGHT CONFIRM THE IMPROVEMENT
OF THE SYSTEM'S STRUCTURE. SMOS AND SMAP PARTIAL DATA BETWEEN 00 AND
01UTC INDICATE WINDS AROUND 45KT AND SATCON ESTIMATES IS BETWEEN 45
AND 50KT. THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY IS THUS KEPT AT 50KT AT 06UTC.

UNTIL SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM IS HEADING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FROM SUNDAY, WITH
THE RETREAT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTWARD, DINGANI'S TRACK SHOULD
SHIFT MORE POLEWARD. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE LOWERING OF THE STEERING FLOW
LEVEL. HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY
STRONG AND ALL RELIABLE DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL AGREE ON A GENERAL
SOUTH-WESTERLY TRACK BY THAT TIME. ACCORDING TO ENSEMBLE MODELS,
THERE IS STILL AN INCREASE IN THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY FROM MONDAY
ONWARDS BUT THIS TENDS TO BE REDUCED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

DINGANI'S ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY IMPROVING, WITH GRADUALLY
DECREASING EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, NOW ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 15KT.
ON SUNDAY, POLEWARD UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN. A
GRADUAL THEN FASTER INTENSIFICATION IS THUS EXPECTED AND DINGANI
COULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE DURING THE WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY, A
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD DEVELOP AND COULD STRENGTHEN
OVER THE FOLLOWING NIGHT, LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR INTRUSIONS.
THESE HOSTILE AND LASTING ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE COUPLED WITH
DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL. IN THIS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
DINGANI SHOULD WEAKEN, POTENTIALLY QUITE QUICKLY.

ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST SCENARIO, DINGANI SHOULD PASS AT A
SUFFICIENT DISTANCE FROM RODRIGUES FOR NOT POSING ANY SIGNIFICANT
THREAT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 110611
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/02/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 11/02/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 79.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 20
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/11 AT 18 UTC:
16.0 S / 77.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/12 AT 06 UTC:
17.0 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 110044
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/6/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 11/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.5 S / 80.7 E
(QUINZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 40 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/02/2023 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 45

24H: 12/02/2023 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

36H: 12/02/2023 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 13/02/2023 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 13/02/2023 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 65

72H: 14/02/2023 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SO: 230 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/02/2023 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 150 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 0 NO: 0

120H: 16/02/2023 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

DINGANI A CONTINUE A MONTRE DES SIGNES D'INTENSIFICATION DURANT LA
NUIT AVEC DE LA CONVECTION AUX SOMMETS TRES FROIDS S'ETANT MAINTENUE
PRES DU CENTRE ET UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EN NETTE AMELIORATION
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD. L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENANT ESTIMEE A 50 KT
EN LIMITE HAUTE DE TOUTES LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES
DISPONIBLES.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PHILOSOPHIE DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE
COMPARE A LA PREVISION PRECEDENTE: JUSQU'A SAMEDI, LE SYSTEME SE
DIRIGE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST, EN BORDURE NORD DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, AVEC LE RETRAIT VERS
L'EST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE DINGANI DEVRAIT
DEVENIR PLUS MERIDIENNE. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE,
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME S'ACCOMPAGNE DE LA DESCENTE DU NIVEAU DU
FLUX DIRECTEUR. TOUTEFOIS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSES COUCHES
NE DEVRAIT PAS ETRE BIEN SOLIDE ET TOUS LES MODELES DETERMINISTES
FIABLES S'ACCORDENT ENCORE POUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE
DU SUD-OUEST. ON NOTE TOUJOURS AVEC LES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES, UNE
AUGMENTATION DE L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE A PARTIR DE LUNDI
MAIS CELLE-CI TEND A SE REDUIRE PAR RAPPORT A HIER.

LA PHILOSOPHIE GLOBALE DE LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE N'A PAS CHANGE:
L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE DINGANI DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT S'AMELIORER DANS
LES PROCHAINES 24H. EN EFFET, LE CISAILLEMENT D'EST-NORD-EST, ESTIME
VERS 20 KT A 21Z (ANALYSES DU CIMSS), EST EN BAISSE. DIMANCHE LA
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE DEVRAIT EGALEMENT SE RENFORCER.
UNE INTENSIFICATION GRADUELLEMENT PLUS RAPIDE EST DONC ATTENDUE ET
DINGANI POURRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EN COURS DE
WEEK-END. EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE, UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST EN
MOYENNE TROPOSHERE SE MET EN PLACE ET POURRAIT SE RENFORCER LA NUIT
SUIVANTE, ACCOMPAGNE D'INTRUSION SECHE. CES CONDITIONS HOSTILES ET
DURABLES POUR LE RESTE DE LA SEMAINE AU NIVEAU DE L'ATMOSPHERE, SE
DOUBLENT D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE. DANS CET ENVIRONNEMENT
DEFAVORABLE, DINGANI DEVRAIT DONC S'AFFAIBLIR, POTENTIELLEMENT ASSEZ
RAPIDEMENT.

SELON LE SCENARIO PRIVILEGIE ACTUELLEMENT, DINGANI DEVRAIT PASSER A
UNE DISTANCE SUFFISANTE DE RODRIGUES POUR NE PAS PRESENTER DE MENACE
SIGNIFICATIVE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 110044
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/6/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 80.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 40 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/11 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45

24H: 2023/02/12 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

36H: 2023/02/12 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2023/02/13 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2023/02/13 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2023/02/14 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 230 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/15 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2023/02/16 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

DINGANI HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT WITH
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD TOPS BEING MAINTAINED NEAR
THE CENTER AND A MARKEDLY IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INTENSITY IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 50 KT AT THE
UPPER END OF ALL AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST: UNTIL SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM IS HEADING IN A GENERAL
WESTERLY DIRECTION, ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
FROM SUNDAY, WITH THE RETREAT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTWARD,
DINGANI'S TRACK SHOULD BECOME MORE POLEWARDS. AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY THE LOWERING
OF THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVELS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY STRONG AND ALL RELIABLE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL AGREE ON A GENERAL SOUTH-WESTERLY TRACK BY
THAT TIME. WITH THE ENSEMBLE MODELS, THERE IS STILL AN INCREASE IN
THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRAJECTORY FROM MONDAY ONWARDS BUT THIS TENDS
TO BE REDUCED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

THE OVERALL PHILOSOPHY OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED:
THE ENVIRONMENT OF DINGANI SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVE IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. INDEED, THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, ESTIMATED AROUND 20
KT AT 21Z (CIMSS ANALYSIS), IS DECREASING. ON SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ON THE POLAR SIDE SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN. A GRADUAL AND
FASTER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AND DINGANI COULD REACH THE STAGE
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY, A NORTHWESTERLY
MID-SHEAR SHEAR IS DEVELOPING AND COULD STRENGTHEN THE FOLLOWING
NIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR INTRUSION. THESE HOSTILE AND LASTING
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS, ARE COUPLED WITH A DECREASING OCEANIC
POTENTIAL. IN THIS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, DINGANI SHOULD WEAKEN,
POTENTIALLY QUITE QUICKLY.

ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT PREFERRED SCENARIO, DINGANI SHOULD PASS AT A
SUFFICIENT DISTANCE FROM RODRIGUES NOT TO PRESENT A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 110020
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/02/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 11/02/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 80.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 20
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/11 AT 12 UTC:
15.7 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/12 AT 00 UTC:
16.4 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 16.1S 81.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 81.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 16.1S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.5S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.3S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 18.2S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.7S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 20.8S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 22.3S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 80.9E.
10FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
755 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 101847
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/6/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 10/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.7 S / 81.9 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/02/2023 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 11/02/2023 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 12/02/2023 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 0

48H: 12/02/2023 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 30 NO: 30

60H: 13/02/2023 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SO: 165 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 13/02/2023 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SO: 240 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/02/2023 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 85

120H: 15/02/2023 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

DINGANI MONTRE DES SIGNES D'INTENSIFICATION AVEC LA PERSISTANCE DE
CLUSTER DE CONVECTION A SOMMETS NUAGEUX TRES FROIDS EN IR RECOUVRANT
LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES SUR L'IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE IR. LA GPM DE
1507Z MONTRE QUE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE RESTE ASYMETRIQUE SOUS
L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL PERSISTANT, MAIS QUE LA
CONFIGURATION GLOBALE EST EN LENTE AMELIORATION SUR LES 12 DERNIERES
HEURES. EN 37 GHZ, LA CIRCULATION DEVIENT DEVIENT MIEUX DEFINI ET ON
DECELE LES PREMICES DE CONSTITUTION D'UN COEUR CENTRAL. L'INTENSITE
EST ESTIMEE A LA HAUSSE AVEC UN VENT MAX A 45 KT. CETTE ESTIMATION SE
SITUE EN HAUT DES VALEURS SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES (2.5 A 3.5) ET
PROCHE DU SATCON ET DE L'ADT. ON NOTERA AUSSI QU'UNE PASS SMOS RECUE
PEU APRES 12Z ET LES DEUX PASS ASCAT DE LA SOIREE VERS 16Z-17Z ONT
DONNE DES ESTIMATIONS A 40/45 KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PHILOSOPHIE DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE
JUSQU'A H+72, AU-DELA LA PREVISION EST PLUS AU SUD QUE LA PRECEDENTE
EN ACCORD AVEC LES DERNIERS IFS/12Z ET GFS/12Z: JUSQU'A SAMEDI, LE
SYSTEME SE DIRIGE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST, EN BORDURE NORD
DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, AVEC LE RETRAIT
VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, DINGANI DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN
VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST, VOIRE DU SUD. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME ET LA BAISSE DU FLUX
DIRECTEUR INDUIT, DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UN DEPLACEMENT UN PEU PLUS
ZONAL. LES MODELES NUMERIQUES DETERMINISTES SONT PLUTOT EN BON ACCORD
GLOBALEMENT SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE SUGGEREE, MAIS LES MODELES
ENSEMBLISTES SUGGERENT QUE L'INCERTITUDE CROIT SIGNIFICATIVEMENT
AU-DELA DE DIMANCHE.

LA PHILOSOPHIE GLOBALE DE LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE N'A PAS CHANGE:
L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE DINGANI DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT S'AMELIORER DANS
LES PROCHAINES 48H. EN EFFET, LE CISAILLEMENT D'EST-NORD-EST DEVRAIT
FAIBLIR. DIMANCHE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE DEVRAIT
EGALEMENT SE RENFORCER. UNE INTENSIFICATION LENTE DANS UN PREMIER
TEMPS PUIS PLUS RAPIDE EST DONC ATTENDUE. IL POURRAIT ATTEINDRE LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EN COURS DE WEEK-END. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, ALORS QUE LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT UN PEU FAIBLIR,
LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT NETTEMENT SE RENFORCER
ACCOMPAGNE D'INTRUSION SECHE. DANS CET ENVIRONNEMENT DEFAVORABLE,
DINGANI DEVRAIT DONC S'AFFAIBLIR, POTENTIELLEMENT ASSEZ RAPIDEMENT.

SELON LE SCENARIO PRIVILEGIE ACTUELLEMENT, DINGANI DEVRAIT PASSER A
UNE DISTANCE SUFFISANTE DE RODRIGUES POUR NE PAS PRESENTER DE MENACE
SIGNIFICATIVE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 101847
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/6/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 81.9 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/11 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2023/02/11 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2023/02/12 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 0

48H: 2023/02/12 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30

60H: 2023/02/13 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2023/02/13 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/14 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 85

120H: 2023/02/15 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

DINGANI SHOWS SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF
CONVECTION CLUSTERS WITH VERY COLD IR CLOUD TOPS OVERLYING THE
SURFACE CENTER ON THE CLASSICAL IR IMAGERY. THE 1507Z GPM SHOWS THAT
THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS ASYMMETRIC UNDER THE EFFECT OF PERSISTENT
VERTICAL SHEAR, BUT THAT THE GLOBAL CONFIGURATION IS SLOWLY IMPROVING
OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. AT 37 GHZ, THE CIRCULATION BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED AND THE FIRST SIGNS OF A BUILDING CENTRAL CORE ARE DETECTED.
THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO INCREASE WITH A MAXIMUM WIND AT 45 KT.
THIS ESTIMATE IS AT THE TOP OF THE SUBJECTIVE VALUES AVAILABLE (2.5
TO 3.5) AND CLOSE TO THE SATCON AND THE ADT. IT WILL BE NOTED THAT
ONE SMOS PASS RECEIVED LATER THAN 12Z AND THE TWO ASCAT PASSES OF THE
EVENING AT 16Z-17Z GIVEN ESTIMATES AT 40/45 KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY UNTIL H+72, THEREAFTER THE
FORECAST IS MORE SOUTHWARD THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE LAST IFS/12Z AND GFS/12Z: UNTIL SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM IS HEADING
IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FROM SUNDAY, WITH THE RETREAT OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TOWARDS THE EAST, DINGANI SHOULD START A TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-WEST, OR EVEN THE SOUTH. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE DECREASE OF THE INDUCED STEERING FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE ZONAL SHIFT. THE NUMERICAL DETERMINIST MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL ON THE SUGGESTED TRAJECTORY, BUT THE
ENSEMBLE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
BEYOND SUNDAY.

THE OVERALL PHILOSOPHY OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED:
THE ENVIRONMENT OF DINGANI SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVE IN THE NEXT
48H. INDEED, THE EAST-NORTHEAST SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN. ON SUNDAY, THE
POLAR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN. A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION AT FIRST THEN A FASTER ONE IS EXPECTED. IT COULD
REACH THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE WEEKEND. AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WHILE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD WEAKEN A
LITTLE, THE NORTH-WESTERN SHEAR SHOULD CLEARLY STRENGTHEN ACCOMPANIED
BY DRY INTRUSION. IN THIS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, DINGANI SHOULD
WEAKEN, POTENTIALLY QUITE QUICKLY.

ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT PREFERRED SCENARIO, DINGANI SHOULD PASS AT A
SUFFICIENT DISTANCE FROM RODRIGUES NOT TO PRESENT A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 101827
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/02/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 10/02/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 81.9 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/11 AT 06 UTC:
15.6 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/11 AT 18 UTC:
16.1 S / 77.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 101247
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/6/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 10/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.0 S / 83.0 E
(SEIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/02/2023 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 120 NO: 75

24H: 11/02/2023 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 12/02/2023 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 12/02/2023 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 30 NO: 30

60H: 13/02/2023 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

72H: 13/02/2023 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 185 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/02/2023 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 280 SO: 285 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 0

120H: 15/02/2023 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SO: 205 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

DINGANI CONTINUE DE SOUFFRIR DE LA PRESENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-EST MODERE (15 A 20KT D'APRES LE CIMSS). LA CONVECTION PROFONDE
N'EST PRESENTE QUE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST EN LIEN AVEC CETTE
CONTRAINTE COMME LE MONTRE LES IMAGES AMSR2 DE 0830Z ET SSMIS DE
1032Z. LES BURSTS CONVECTIFS RESTENT CEPENDANT POUR L'INSTANT ENCORE
PEU DURABLES, ET NE PLAIDENT PAS UNE INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME
DEPUIS CE MATIN. EN ACCORD AVEC LES DONNEES OBJECTIVES, L'INTENSITE
EST MAINTENUE A 40KT.

JUSQU'A SAMEDI, LE SYSTEME VA SE DIRIGER EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST, EN BORDURE NORD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. A PARTIR DE
DIMANCHE, AVEC LE RETRAIT VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE,
DINGANI DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST. EN DEBUT
DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME AINSI QUE LE
RETOUR D'UNE DORSALE LOINTAINE AU SUD, DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UN
DEPLACEMENT PLUS ZONAL. LES MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN BON ACCORD
JUSQU'EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE SUR CETTE PREVISION. AU DELA,
L'INCERTITUDE SEMBLE BIEN PLUS MARQUEE AVEC UNE FORTE DISPERSION DANS
LES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES (EPS 00Z NOTAMMENT). POUR LA FIN D'ECHEANCE,
LA PREVISION SE BASE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DERNIERS RESEAUX DE
IFS, GFS ET DE LA MOYENNE DE L'EPS.

L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE DINGANI DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT S'AMELIORER DANS
LES PROCHAINES 48H. EN EFFET, LE CISAILLEMENT D'EST-NORD-EST DEVRAIT
FAIBLIR. DIMANCHE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE DEVRAIT
EGALEMENT SE RENFORCER. UNE INTENSIFICATION LENTE DANS UN PREMIER
TEMPS PUIS PLUS RAPIDE EST DONC ATTENDUE. IL POURRAIT ATTEINDRE LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EN COURS DE WEEK-END. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, ALORS QUE LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT UN PEU FAIBLIR,
LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT NETTEMENT SE RENFORCER
ACCOMPAGNE D'INTRUSION SECHE. DANS CET ENVIRONNEMENT DEFAVORABLE,
DINGANI DEVRAIT DONC S'AFFAIBLIR. IL EXISTE TOUTEFOIS UNE INCERTITUDE
SUR LE TIMING DU RENFORCEMENT DE CE CISAILLEMENT (IFS PLUS TARDIF
QUE GFS). UN DECALAGE DE LA DEGRADATION DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT POURRAIT
CONDUIRE A UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS MARQUEE.

SELON LE SCENARIO PRIVILEGIE ACTUELLEMENT, DINGANI DEVRAIT PASSER A
UNE DISTANCE SUFFISANTE DE RODRIGUES POUR NE PAS PRESENTER DE MENACE
SIGNIFICATIVE. TOUTEFOIS, ETANT DONNEE L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA
PREVISION, UN SCENARIO PLUS PESSISMISTE N'EST PAS EXCLU.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 101247
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/6/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 83.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/11 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 75

24H: 2023/02/11 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2023/02/12 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2023/02/12 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30

60H: 2023/02/13 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

72H: 2023/02/13 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/14 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 280 SW: 285 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 0

120H: 2023/02/15 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

DINGANI CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM A MODERATE NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR (15
TO 20KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS). DEEP CONVECTION IS ONLY PRESENT IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE IN RELATION TO THIS CONSTRAINT AS SHOWN BY THE
0830Z AMSR2 AND 1032Z SSMIS IMAGES. CONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE NOT VERY
PERSISTENT FOR THE MOMENT, AND DO NOT SUGGEST A DEEPENING OF THE
SYSTEM SINCE THIS MORNING. IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SATCON, THE
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 40KT.

UNTIL SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE MOSTLY WESTWARD, ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FROM SUNDAY, WITH THE
EASTERLY SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DINGANI SHOULD TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD. EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A DISTANT RIDGE AT SOUTH, THE TRACK COULD AGAIN BEND MORE
WESTWARD. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO SUNDAY ON
THIS FORECAST. BEYOND THAT, THE UNCERTAINTY SEEMS MUCH MORE STRONGER
WITH A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE MODELS (EPS 00Z NOTABLY).
AT LONGER RANGE, THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
LATEST IFS, GFS AND EPS AVERAGE RUNS.

DINGANI'S ENVIRONMENT SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. INDEED, THE EAST NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN. ON
SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE POLAR SIDE SHOULD ALSO
STRENGTHEN. CONSEQUENTLY, A SLOW INTENSIFICATION AT FIRST THEN A
FASTER ONE IS EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM COULD THUS REACH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE DURING THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT, THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD
NOTICEABLY INCREASE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. IN THIS
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, DINGANI SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN.
HOWEVER, THERE IS AN UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THIS SHEAR
STRENGTHENING (IFS LATER THAN GFS). A DELAY IN THE DEGRADATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT COULD LEAD TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.

ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FAVORED SCENARIO, DINGANI SHOULD PASS FAR
ENOUGH FROM RODRIGUES TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST, A MORE PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 101223
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/02/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 10/02/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 83.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/11 AT 00 UTC:
15.8 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/11 AT 12 UTC:
16.0 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 16.3S 83.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 83.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.1S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 16.1S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.6S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.5S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 19.7S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.2S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 22.2S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 83.1E.
10FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
854 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 100657
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/6/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 10/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.2 S / 83.9 E
(SEIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 220 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/02/2023 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 75

24H: 11/02/2023 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 11/02/2023 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 12/02/2023 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

60H: 12/02/2023 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 165 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

72H: 13/02/2023 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/02/2023 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 75

120H: 15/02/2023 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 75 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5

DINGANI CONTINUE DE SOUFFRIR DE LA PRESENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-EST MODERE (15 A 20KT D'APRES LE CIMSS). LA CONVECTION PROFONDE
N'EST PRESENTE QUE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST EN LIEN AVEC CETTE
CONTRAINTE. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0326Z CONFIRME LA PRESENCE DE VENT
PROCHE DES 40KT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. L'INTENSITE EST DONC
MAITENUE A 40KT.

JUSQU'A SAMEDI, LE SYSTEME VA SE DIRIGER EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST, EN BORDURE NORD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. A PARTIR DE
DIMANCHE, AVEC LE RETRAIT VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE,
DINGANI DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST. EN DEBUT
DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSMEENT DU SYSTEME ET LE RETOUR
D'UNE DORSALE LOINTAINE AU SUD, LA TRAJECTOIRE POURRAIT A NOUVEAU
S'ORIENTER PLUS VERS L'OUEST. LES MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN BON
ACCORD JUSQU'EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE SUR CETTE PREVISION. AU DELA
L'INCERTITUDE SEMBLE BIEN PLUS MARQUEE AVEC UNE FORTE DISPERSION DANS
LES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES.

L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE DINGANI DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT S'AMELIORER DANS
LES PROCHAINES 48H. EN EFFET, LE CISAILLEMENT D'EST-NORD-EST DEVRAIT
FAIBLIR. DIMANCHE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE DEVRAIT
EGALEMENT SE RENFORCER. UNE INTENSIFICATION LENTE DANS UN PREMIER
TEMPS PUIS PLUS RAPIDE ET DONC ATTENDUE. IL POURRAIT ATTEINDRE LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EN COURS DE WEEK-END. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, ALORS QUE LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT UN PEU FAIBLIR,
LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT NETTEMENT SE RENFORCER
ACCOMPAGNE D'INTRUSION SECHE. DANS CET ENVIRONNEMENT DEFAVORABLE,
DINGANI DEVRAIT DONC NETTEMENT S'AFFAIBLIR.


EN TANT DONNE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE ACTUELLE,
DINGANI NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES
(RODRIGUES).=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 100657
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/6/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 83.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/10 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75

24H: 2023/02/11 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2023/02/11 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2023/02/12 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

60H: 2023/02/12 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

72H: 2023/02/13 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/14 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 75

120H: 2023/02/15 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 75 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

DINGANI CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM A MODERATE NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR (15
TO 20KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS). DEEP CONVECTION IS ONLY PRESENT IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE IN RELATION TO THIS CONSTRAINT. THE ASCAT PASS OF
0326Z CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF WIND CLOSE TO 40KT IN THE SOUTH
WESTERN QUADRANT. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE MAINTAINED AT 40KT.

UNTIL SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE MOSTLY WESTWARD, ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FROM SUNDAY, WITH THE
EASTERLY SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DINGANI SHOULD TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD. EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A DISTANT RIDGE AT SOUTH, THE TRACK COULD AGAIN BEND MORE
WESTWARD. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO SUNDAY ON
THIS FORECAST. BEYOND THAT, THE UNCERTAINTY SEEMS MUCH MORE STRONGER
WITH A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE MODELS.

DINGANI'S ENVIRONMENT SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. INDEED, THE EAST NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN. ON
SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE POLAR SIDE SHOULD ALSO
STRENGTHEN. CONSEQUENTLY, A SLOW INTENSIFICATION AT FIRST THEN A
FASTER ONE IS EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM COULD THUS REACH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE DURING THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT, THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD
NOTICEABLY INCREASE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. IN THIS
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, DINGANI SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN.

GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST, DINGANI DOES NOT
CONSTITUTE A THREAT TO THE INHABITED LANDS (RODRIGUES).=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 100626
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/02/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 10/02/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 83.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/10 AT 18 UTC:
15.8 S / 81.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/11 AT 06 UTC:
15.9 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 100112
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/6/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 10/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.3 S / 85.2 E
(SEIZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/02/2023 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 75

24H: 11/02/2023 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 11/02/2023 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 12/02/2023 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 12/02/2023 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55

72H: 13/02/2023 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/02/2023 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 295 SO: 270 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

120H: 15/02/2023 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 175 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 ET CI=3.0

CETTE NUIT, PEU APRES LE RESEAU DE 18Z, LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX DU
SYSTEME SE SONT TEMPORAIREMENT REFROIDIS, AVEC UNE CONVECTION PLUTA T
FLUCTUANTE EN BORDURE SUD-OUEST DU CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES. PEU
AVANT LE RESEAU DE 00Z, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE DINGANI A
PROGRESSIVEMENT MIGRA VERS UNE CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE, AVEC
MA ME UN DEBUT DE POINT CHAUD AU SEIN DE LA CONVECTION PRINCIPALE, CE
QUI SUGGERE UN DEBUT D'INTENSIFICATION, MA ME SI LA CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE EST UN PEU MOINS BELLE QU'AU COURS DU RESEAU PRECEDENT, AVEC
DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX GLOBALEMENT PLUS CHAUDS. CECI EST SANS DOUTE
RENDU POSSIBLE PAR UNE LEGERE BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST
(ESTIMA A 15KT) ET DU MAINTIEN DE LA DIVERGENCE CA TE POLAIRE. AU VU
DE CES ELEMENTS FACTUELS, DE L'INTERCOMPARAISON DES DONNA ES
MICRO-ONDE AINSI QUE DES DERNIERES DONNEES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES,
L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 40KT.

D'ICI SAMEDI, LE SYSTEME VA SE DIRIGER EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST, EN BORDURE NORD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. POUR LES 48
PROCHAINES HEURES LES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES AMERICAINS ET EUROPEENS
RESTENT COHERENTS ET PEU DISPERSIFS. PUIS A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, AVEC
LE RETRAIT VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PUIS AU NORD-EST EN
DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, DINGANI, DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN VIRAGE EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST TOUT EN RALENTISSANT PROGRESSIVEMENT. A PARTIR
DE DIMANCHE ET JUSQU'EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LA DISPERSION
DES GUIDANCES RESTE IMPORTANTE, AVEC TOUTEFOIS UN SIGNAL QUI SEMBLE
PREVALOIR EN FAVEUR D'UNE DIRECTION AU SUD-OUEST, MAIS QUI RESTE
ENCORE A PRECISER. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS
ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES.

DINGANI SUBIT ACTUELLEMENT UNE CONTRAINTE DE NORD-EST, DONT LES
EFFETS SONT EN PARTIE COMPENSES PAR UNE SOLIDE DIVERGENCE COTE
POLAIRE, DES EAUX DE SURFACE PARTICULIEREMENT CHAUDE, ET SON
DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE VERS L'OUEST. CES CONDITIONS MITIGEES SUGGERE UNE
LENTE INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A SAMEDI. AU DELA, ENTRE
DIMANCHE ET LUNDI, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT
PONCTUELLEMENT S'AMELIORER AVEC LA RELACHE DU CISAILLEMENT A
L'APPROCHE DU SYSTEME VERS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET LE
MAINTIEN DE LA DIVERGENCE. IL N'EST DONC PAS EXCLU QUE DINGANI PUISSE
ATTEINDRE PONCTUELLEMENT LE STADE MINIMAL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.
CEPENDANT, DINGANI POURRAIT GAGNER ASSEZ RAPIDEMENT DES EAUX PLUS
FRAICHES EN JOURNA E DE LUNDI, CE QUI DEBUTERAIT UNE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, CUMULE EN TOUTE FIN D'ECHEANCE, AU
RENFORCEMENT DE LA CONTRAINTE DE NORD-OUEST, INJECTANT
PROGRESSIVEMENT DE L'AIR SEC AU SEIN DU SYSTEME.

LE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 100112
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/6/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 85.2 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/10 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 75

24H: 2023/02/11 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2023/02/11 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2023/02/12 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2023/02/12 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55

72H: 2023/02/13 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/14 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

120H: 2023/02/15 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 AND CI=3.0

TONIGHT, SHORTLY AFTER 18Z , THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE SYSTEM HAVE
TEMPORARILY COOLED DOWN, WITH A RATHER FLUCTUATING CONVECTION AT THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. SHORTLY BEFORE THE 00Z,
THE DINGANI CLOUD PATTERN HAS PROGRESSIVELY SHIFTED TO A CURVED BAND
PATTERN, WITH EVEN THE BEGINNING OF A HOT SPOT WITHIN THE MAIN
CONVECTION, WHICH SUGGESTS A BEGINNING OF INTENSIFICATION, EVEN IF
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A BIT LESS BEAUTIFUL THAN DURING THE PREVIOUS
NETWORK, WITH GLOBALLY WARMER CLOUD TOPS. THIS IS PROBABLY MADE
POSSIBLE BY A SLIGHT DECREASE OF THE NORTHEAST VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
(ESTIMATED AT 15KT) AND THE MAINTENANCE OF THE UPPER DIVERGENCE, IN
THE POLAR SIDE. GIVEN THESE FACTS, THE INTERCOMPARISON OF MICROWAVE
DATA AND THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DATA, THE INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 40KT.

BY SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION,
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS THE AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MODELS REMAIN HOMOGENEOUS
AND NOT VERY DISPERSIVE. THEN FROM SUNDAY, WITH THE RETREAT TOWARDS
THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THEN TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, DINGANI, SHOULD BEGIN A TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-WEST WHILE SLOWING DOWN GRADUALLY. FROM SUNDAY UNTIL MID NEXT
WEEK, THE DISPERSION OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IMPORTANT, WITH HOWEVER
A SIGNAL WHICH SEEMS TO PREVAIL IN FAVOR OF A SOUTH-WESTERN
DIRECTION, BUT WHICH REMAINS TO BE SPECIFIED. THE CMRS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

DINGANI IS CURRENTLY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY STRESS, THE EFFECTS OF WHICH
ARE PARTLY OFFSET BY A STRONG POLAR DIVERGENCE, PARTICULARLY WARM
SURFACE WATERS, AND ITS RAPID WESTWARD MOTION. THESE MIXED CONDITIONS
SUGGEST A SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM UNTIL SATURDAY. BEYOND
THAT, BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE PUNCTUALLY WITH THE RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR APPROACHING THE
SYSTEM TOWARDS THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE MAINTENANCE
OF THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. IT IS THEREFORE NOT EXCLUDED THAT DINGANI
COULD REACH THE MINIMAL STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER, DINGANI
COULD GAIN COOLER WATERS QUITE QUICKLY ON MONDAY, WHICH WOULD START A
WEAKENING PHASE OF THE SYSTEM, CUMULATED AT THE VERY END, WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH-WESTERN CONSTRAINT, PROGRESSIVELY
INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM.

THE SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT A THREAT TO THE INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 100010
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/02/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 10/02/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 85.2 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/10 AT 12 UTC:
16.1 S / 83.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/11 AT 00 UTC:
15.7 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 16.3S 86.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 86.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 16.0S 83.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.8S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.8S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.3S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 18.1S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.3S 72.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 20.8S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 85.7E.
09FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
980 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 091832
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/6/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 09/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.6 S / 86.5 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SIX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/02/2023 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 55

24H: 10/02/2023 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 11/02/2023 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 11/02/2023 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 12/02/2023 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 12/02/2023 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SO: 175 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/02/2023 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

120H: 14/02/2023 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 305 SO: 295 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DINGANI A GARDE UNE CONFIGURATION
CISAILLEE EN RAISON DE LA PERSISTANCE D'UNE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE
SECTEUR NORD-EST DE L'ORDRE DE 20KT SELON LES DERNIERES ANALYSES DU
CIMSS. LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES DE CET APRES-MIDI, AINSI QUE LES
IMAGES SATELLITAIRES CLASSIQUES MONTRENT UNE CONVECTION MODEREE,
DEPORTEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES
COUCHES. LES EFFETS NEFASTES DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT
SEMBLENT ETRE CONTREBALANCES PAR LE DEPLACEMENT DE DINGANI VERS
L'OUEST, AINSI QUE PAR LA PRESENCE D'UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD DU SYSTEME. AU VU DE L'ASPECT GENERAL DE LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE ET DE LA PASSE DIFFUSIOMETRIQUE DE 1530Z,
L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 40KT.

D'ICI SAMEDI SOIR, LE SYSTEME VA ACCELERER LEGEREMENT EN DIRECTION DE
L'OUEST, EN BORDURE NORD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. POUR LES 48
PROCHAINES HEURES LES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES AMERICAINS ET EUROPEENS
SONT COHERENTS ET PEU DISPERSIFS. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE SE DA CALE VERS L'EST DU BASSIN, A L'APPROCHE D'UN
TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ARRIVANT PAR LE SUD-OUEST. DINGANI, DEVRAIT DONC
INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST TOUT EN
RALENTISSANT PROGRESSIVEMENT. ENTRE DIMANCHE ET JUSQU'EN DEBUT DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LA DISPERSION DES GUIDANCES DEVIENT NETTEMENT PLUS
IMPORTANTE, AVEC TOUTEFOIS UN SIGNAL QUI SEMBLE PREVALOIR EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST, MAIS QUI RESTE ENCORE A PRECISER. LA
PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES INDUISANT UNE PLUS FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.

DINGANI SUBIT ACTUELLEMENT UNE CONTRAINTE DE NORD-EST, DONT LES
EFFETS SONT EN PARTIE COMPENSES PAR UNE SOLIDE DIVERGENCE COTE
POLAIRE, DES EAUX DE SURFACE PARTICULIEREMENT CHAUDE, ET SON
DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST. CES CONDITIONS MITIGEES DEVRAIENT PERMETTRE
UNE LENTE INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A SAMEDI PROCHAIN. AU
DELA, ENTRE DIMANCHE ET LUNDI, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
DEVRAIENT PONCTUELLEMENT S'AMELIORER AVEC LA RELACHE DU CISAILLEMENT
A L'APPROCHE DU SYSTEME VERS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET LE
MAINTIEN DE LA DIVERGENCE. DINGANI POURRAIT ALORS POTENTIELLEMENT
ATTEINDRE LE STADE MINIMAL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. CEPENDANT, DINGANI
POURRAIT GAGNER ASSEZ RAPIDEMENT DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES A COMPTER DE
LUNDI OU MARDI, CE QUI DEBUTERAIT UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
SYSTEME, CUMULE EN TOUTE FIN D'ECHEANCE, AU RENFORCEMENT DE LA
CONTRAINTE DE NORD-OUEST, INJECTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT DE L'AIR SEC AU
SEIN DU SYSTEME.

LE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 091832
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/6/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 86.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/10 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 55

24H: 2023/02/10 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2023/02/11 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2023/02/11 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2023/02/12 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2023/02/12 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/13 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

120H: 2023/02/14 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 305 SW: 295 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, DINGANI HAS KEPT A SHEARED PATTERN DUE TO
THE PERSISTENCE OF A NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR OF ABOUT 20KT
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CIMSS ANALYSIS. THE MICROWAVE DATA OF THIS
AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS THE CLASSICAL SATELLITE IMAGES, SHOW A MODERATE
CONVECTION, DISPLACED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SEEM TO
BE OFFSET BY THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF DINGANI, AS WELL AS BY THE
PRESENCE OF A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF
THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE GENERAL ASPECT OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE
1530Z ASCAT PASS, THE INTENSITY IS YIELD AT 40KT.

BY SATURDAY EVENING, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE
WEST, AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS THE AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND
NOT VERY DISPERSIVE. FROM SUNDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST OF THE BASIN, AS A HIGH TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. DINGANI, SHOULD THUS CURVE ITS TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-WEST WHILE SLOWING DOWN GRADUALLY. BETWEEN SUNDAY AND THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE DISPERSION OF THE GUIDANCE BECOMES MUCH
MORE IMPORTANT, WITH HOWEVER A SIGNAL WHICH SEEMS TO PREVAIL IN
DIRECTION OF THE SOUTH-WEST, BUT WHICH REMAINS TO BE SPECIFIED. THE
CMRS FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE LEADING TO A HIGHER UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

DINGANI IS CURRENTLY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY VWSH, THE EFFECTS OF WHICH
ARE PARTLY OFFSET BY A STRONG POLAR DIVERGENCE, PARTICULARLY WARM
SURFACE WATERS, AND ITS WESTWARD MOTION. THESE MIXED CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALLOW A SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM UNTIL NEXT
SATURDAY. BEYOND THAT, BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD PUNCTUALLY IMPROVE WITH THE RELAXATION OF THE
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AXIS OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE DIVERGENCE IS MAINTAINED. DINGANI COULD
THEN POTENTIALLY REACH THE MINIMAL STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER, DINGANI COULD GAIN COOLER WATERS QUITE QUICKLY FROM MONDAY
OR TUESDAY, WHICH WOULD START A WEAKENING PHASE OF THE SYSTEM,
CUMULATED AT THE VERY END, WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
NORTH-WESTERN CONSTRAINT, PROGRESSIVELY INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE
SYSTEM.

THE SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT A THREAT TO THE INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 091815
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 09/02/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 86.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 115 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/10 AT 06 UTC:
16.5 S / 84.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/10 AT 18 UTC:
16.1 S / 82.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 091227
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/6/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 09/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.9 S / 87.9 E
(SEIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 260 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/02/2023 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 260 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 75

24H: 10/02/2023 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 270 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 11/02/2023 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SO: 270 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 11/02/2023 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SO: 280 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

60H: 12/02/2023 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 305 SO: 285 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 12/02/2023 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SO: 295 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/02/2023 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SO: 305 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 175 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 65

120H: 14/02/2023 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 390 SO: 315 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SO: 185 NO: 110

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0.

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DINGANI A MONTRE UNE STRUCTURE
CISAILLE. L'INTENSIFICATION DE POURSUIT LENTEMENT COMME LE MONTRE LA
COMPARAISON DES DEUX PASS MICRO-ONDES DE 23H59Z ET 07H46Z OU LA
CIRCULATION DES BASSES COUCHES BIEN FERMEE CONFIRME L'INTENSITE DU
SYSTEME. LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE
DU SYSTEME LUI PERMET POUR LE MOMENT DE NE PAS TROP SOUFFRIR DU
CISAILLENT VERTICAL DU VENT, ET DE METTRE A PROFIT LA BONNE
DIVERGENCE COTE POLAIRE.

DURANT LES TROIS PROCHAINS JOURS, LE SYSTEME VA SE DEPLACER
RAPIDEMMENT GLOBALEMENT VERS L'OUEST AU NORD DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICAL. IL Y A UN BON ACCORD DES MODELES A CETTE ECHEANCE.
A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, UN TALWEG APPROCHE PAR LE SUD-OUEST,
AFFAIBLISSANT LA DORSALE AU SUD DU SYSTEME, ET FAISANT INCURVER
DINGANI EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST AVEC UN RALENTISSEMENT PROGRESSIF
DE LA TRAJECTOIRE. L'INCERTITUDE EST PLUS IMPORTANTE SUR CETTE
PERIODE, LES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES IFS ET GFS PRESENTENT DES FAISCEAUX
ASSEZ LARGE, AVEC UNE TENDANCE PLUS SUD-OUEST POUR GFS QUE POUR IFS,
LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE
EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE CES DEUX OPTIONS.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, UNE CONTRAINTE DE NORD-EST RESTE PRESENTE EN
DEBUT DE PERIODE, AINSI QU'UNE BONNE DIVERVENCE COTE POLAIRE. LE
DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DE DINGANI JUSQU'A SAMEDI COMPRIS LIMITE
L'INFLUENCE DU CISAILLEMENT SUR L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME,
PERMETTANT A CELUI CI D'ATTEINDRE LE STADE INFERIEUR DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL.

AU DELA SAMEDI, LE CISAILLEMENT FAIBLIT PROGRESSIVEMENT, AVEC
L'APPROCHE DE L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE, MAIS LE POTENTIEL
ENERGETIQUE FAIBLIT DANS LE MEME TEMPS, CE QUI DEBUTE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT DU SYSTEME.
EN FIN DE PERIODE, EN JOURNEE DE MARDI LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA
CONTRAINTE DE NORD-OUEST, INJECTE DE L'AIR SEC PRESENT DANS LE
NORD-OUEST, DE PLUS LA BAISSE DU POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE SA ACCENTUE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT.

LE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 091227
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/6/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 87.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/10 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 75

24H: 2023/02/10 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 270 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2023/02/11 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2023/02/11 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

60H: 2023/02/12 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 305 SW: 285 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2023/02/12 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SW: 295 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/13 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SW: 305 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 65

120H: 2023/02/14 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 390 SW: 315 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0.

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, DINGANI HAS SHOWN A SHEAR STRUCTURE. THE
INTENSIFICATION CONTINUES SLOWLY AS SHOWN BY THE COMPARISON OF THE
TWO MICROWAVE PASSES OF 23H59Z AND 07H46Z WHERE THE CIRCULATION OF
THE LOW LAYERS IS WELL CLOSED CONFIRMING THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
THE FAST DISPLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
OF THE SYSTEM ALLOWS IT FOR THE MOMENT NOT TO SUFFER TOO MUCH FROM
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE GOOD POLAR
COAST DIVERGENCE.

DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD
OVERALL NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE IS A GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME.
FROM SUNDAY, A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, WEAKENING THE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND MAKING DINGANI CURVE TOWARDS
THE SOUTH-WEST WITH A PROGRESSIVE SLOWING OF THE TRAJECTORY. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS MORE IMPORTANT ON THIS PERIOD, THE ENSEMBLE MODELS IFS
AND GFS PRESENT RATHER LARGE CLUSTERS, WITH A MORE SOUTH-WESTERN
TREND FOR GFS THAN FOR IFS, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO OPTIONS.

ON THIS TRAJECTORY, A NORTH-EAST CONSTRAINT REMAINS PRESENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, AS WELL AS A GOOD POLAR COAST DIVERGENCE.
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF DINGANI UNTIL SATURDAY INCLUDED LIMITS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SHEAR ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING
IT TO REACH THE LOWER STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE.

BEYOND SATURDAY, THE SHEAR WEAKENS PROGRESSIVELY, WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE, BUT THE ENERGETIC POTENTIAL WEAKENS
AT THE SAME TIME, WHICH BEGINS THE SLOW WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, ON TUESDAY, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
NORTH-WESTERN CONSTRAINT, INJECTS DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE NORTH-WEST,
AND THE DECREASE OF THE ENERGETIC POTENTIAL ACCENTUATES THE
WEAKENING.

THE SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 091213
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 09/02/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 87.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.


GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/10 AT 00 UTC:
16.6 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/10 AT 12 UTC:
16.4 S / 83.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090321FEB2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 89.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 89.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.8S 87.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 16.5S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.2S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 16.1S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.3S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 19.2S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.0S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 88.6E.
09FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DINGANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1137 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 090330).
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090625
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/6/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 09/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.6 S / 88.9 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 215 SO: 140 NO: 45
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/02/2023 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 85

24H: 10/02/2023 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 10/02/2023 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

48H: 11/02/2023 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 11/02/2023 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

72H: 12/02/2023 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/02/2023 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SO: 220 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65

120H: 14/02/2023 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SO: 220 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SO: 60 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-.

LE SYSTEME EST ENTRE SUR LE BASSIN EN COURS DE NUIT EN PROVENANCE DE
LA ZONE DE RESPONSABILITE AUSTRALIENNE. LES PASS SMAP ET SMOS DE
2330Z ET 0011Z ONT MONTRE DES VENTS DE L'ORDRED DE 35/40KT DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD, CONNFIRMA S PAR LES DONNEES ASCAT DE 0345.LE SYSTEME
A DONC ETE BAPTISE DINGANI. LE SYSTEME SUBIT UNE CONTRAINTE DE
NORD-EST, LE CENTRE EST APPARU TEMPORAIREMENT EXPOSE AU NORD-EST DE
LA CONVECTION.

DURANT LES TROIS PROCHAINS JOURS, LE SYSTEME VA SE DEPLACER
RAPIDEMMENT GLOBALEMENT VERS L'OUEST AU NORD DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICAL.
A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE,UN TALWEG APPROCHE PAR LE SUD-OUEST,
AFFAIBLISSANT LA DORSALE AU SUD DU SYSTEME, ET FAISANT INCURVER
DINGANI EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST AVEC UN RALENTISSEMENT PROGRESSIF
DE LA TRAJECTOIRE.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, UNE CONTRAINTE DE NORD-EST RESTE PRESENTE SUR
TOUTE LA PERIODE, AINSI QU'UNE BONNE DIVERVENCE COTE POLAIRE. LE
DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DE DINGANI JUSQU'A SAMEDI COMPRIS LIMITE
L'INFLUENCE DU CISAILLEMENT SUR L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME,
PERMETTANT A CELUI CI D'ATTEINDRE LE STADE INFERIEUR DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL.
AU DELA SAMEDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT COMMENCE A AFFAIBLIR LE
SYSTEME.
DE PLUS EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE, LE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE DEVRAIT FAIBLIR
SENSIBLEMENT.

LE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090625
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/6/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 88.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 45
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/09 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 85

24H: 2023/02/10 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2023/02/10 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

48H: 2023/02/11 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2023/02/11 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

72H: 2023/02/12 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/13 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65

120H: 2023/02/14 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SW: 220 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-.

THE SYSTEM ENTERED THE BASIN DURING THE NIGHT FROM THE AUSTRALIAN
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. THE SMAP AND SMOS PASSES OF 2330Z AND 0011Z
SHOWED WINDS IN THE ORDER OF 35/40KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE,
CONFIRMED BY THE ASCAT DATA OF 0345.THE SYSTEM HAS THEREFORE BEEN
NAMED DINGANI. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A NORTHEAST STRESS, THE CENTER
APPEARED TEMPORARILY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CONVECTION.

DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OVERALL
WESTWARD NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
FROM SUNDAY, A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WEAKENING THE
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND MAKING DINGANI CURVE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A PROGRESSIVE SLOWING OF THE TRAJECTORY.

ON THIS TRAJECTORY, A NORTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT REMAINS PRESENT DURING
THE WHOLE PERIOD, AS WELL AS A GOOD POLAR COAST DIVERGENCE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF DINGANI UNTIL SATURDAY INCLUDED LIMITS THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SHEAR ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING IT TO REACH
THE LOWER STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE.
BEYOND SATURDAY, THE SHEAR SHOULD START TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
MOREOVER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, THE ENERGETIC POTENTIAL SHOULD
WEAKEN APPRECIABLY.

THE SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 090605
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 09/02/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DINGANI) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 88.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN RADIUS OF 200 NM IN THES SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.


GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 20
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/09 AT 18 UTC:
16.6 S / 87.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/10 AT 06 UTC:
16.6 S / 84.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>