Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for DARIAN-22 Off-shore from 18 Dec 2022 06:00 UTC to 31 Dec 2022 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DARIAN-22

Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

31/12 02:20 WTXS51PGTW310300

31/12 02:15 WTXS31PGTW310300

30/12 12:08 WTIO22FMEE301201

30/12 06:37 WTIO31FMEE300617CCA

30/12 06:37 WTIO30FMEE300617CCA

30/12 06:09 WTIO22FMEE300607

30/12 00:39 WTIO31FMEE300038

30/12 00:39 WTIO30FMEE300038

30/12 00:13 WTIO22FMEE300009

29/12 18:52 WTIO31FMEE291819

29/12 18:52 WTIO30FMEE291819

29/12 18:15 WTIO22FMEE291805

29/12 13:06 WTIO31FMEE291304

29/12 13:06 WTIO30FMEE291304

29/12 12:07 WTIO20FMEE291203

29/12 07:18 WTIO31FMEE290633

29/12 07:18 WTIO30FMEE290633

29/12 00:48 WTIO31FMEE290040

29/12 00:48 WTIO30FMEE290040

29/12 00:06 WTIO20FMEE282354

28/12 18:29 WTIO31FMEE281822

28/12 18:29 WTIO30FMEE281822

28/12 18:02 WTIO20FMEE281748

28/12 12:57 WTIO31FMEE281237

28/12 12:57 WTIO30FMEE281237

28/12 12:17 WTIO20FMEE281214

28/12 07:12 WTIO31FMEE280649

28/12 07:12 WTIO30FMEE280649

28/12 06:33 WTIO20FMEE280632

28/12 00:50 WTIO31FMEE280028

28/12 00:50 WTIO30FMEE280028

28/12 00:18 WTIO20FMEE280012

27/12 19:09 WTIO31FMEE271824

27/12 19:09 WTIO30FMEE271824

27/12 18:12 WTIO20FMEE271809

27/12 12:50 WTIO31FMEE271221

27/12 12:50 WTIO30FMEE271221

27/12 12:49 WTIO20FMEE271210

27/12 06:54 WTIO31FMEE270630

27/12 06:54 WTIO30FMEE270630

27/12 06:19 WTIO20FMEE270616

27/12 00:54 WTIO31FMEE270045

27/12 00:54 WTIO30FMEE270045

27/12 00:35 WTIO20FMEE270033

26/12 18:55 WTIO31FMEE261834

26/12 18:55 WTIO30FMEE261834

26/12 18:09 WTIO20FMEE261808

26/12 13:12 WTIO31FMEE261230

26/12 13:12 WTIO30FMEE261230

26/12 12:21 WTIO20FMEE261221

26/12 07:12 WTIO31FMEE260636

26/12 07:12 WTIO30FMEE260636

26/12 06:24 WTIO20FMEE260622

26/12 00:50 WTIO31FMEE260049

26/12 00:50 WTIO30FMEE260049

26/12 00:26 WTIO20FMEE260024

25/12 19:13 WTIO31FMEE251849

25/12 19:13 WTIO30FMEE251849

25/12 18:20 WTIO20FMEE251818

25/12 12:55 WTIO31FMEE251252

25/12 12:55 WTIO30FMEE251252

25/12 06:17 WTIO20FMEE250616

25/12 02:18 WTXS51PGTW250300

25/12 02:15 WTXS31PGTW250300

25/12 00:51 WTIO31FMEE250049

25/12 00:51 WTIO30FMEE250049

25/12 00:31 WTIO20FMEE250004

24/12 18:46 WTIO31FMEE241844

24/12 18:46 WTIO30FMEE241844

24/12 18:16 WTIO20FMEE241808

24/12 13:11 WTIO31FMEE241310

24/12 13:11 WTIO30FMEE241310

24/12 12:38 WTIO20FMEE241237CCA

24/12 12:35 WTIO20FMEE241233

24/12 07:26 WTIO31FMEE240725

24/12 07:26 WTIO30FMEE240725

24/12 06:27 WTIO20FMEE240625

24/12 00:10 WTIO20FMEE240004

23/12 18:04 WTIO20FMEE231751

23/12 12:54 WTIO31FMEE231253

23/12 12:54 WTIO30FMEE231253

23/12 12:46 WTIO31FMEE231245

23/12 12:46 WTIO30FMEE231245

23/12 12:13 WTIO20FMEE231206

23/12 07:01 WTIO31FMEE230700

23/12 07:01 WTIO30FMEE230700

23/12 06:59 WTIO31FMEE230658

23/12 06:59 WTIO30FMEE230658

23/12 06:27 WTIO20FMEE230620

23/12 00:59 WTIO31FMEE230058

23/12 00:59 WTIO30FMEE230058

23/12 00:28 WTIO20FMEE230025

22/12 19:06 WTIO31FMEE221850

22/12 19:06 WTIO30FMEE221850

22/12 18:39 WTIO20FMEE221837

22/12 12:53 WTIO31FMEE221214

22/12 12:53 WTIO30FMEE221214

22/12 12:02 WTIO20FMEE221201

22/12 07:04 WTIO31FMEE220629

22/12 07:04 WTIO30FMEE220629

22/12 06:19 WTIO20FMEE220616

22/12 01:06 WTIO31FMEE220030

22/12 01:06 WTIO30FMEE220030

21/12 19:40 WTIO31FMEE211836

21/12 19:40 WTIO30FMEE211836

21/12 18:25 WTIO20FMEE211824

21/12 12:40 WTIO31FMEE211239

21/12 12:40 WTIO30FMEE211239

21/12 12:38 WTIO20FMEE211220

19/12 08:26 WTXS51PGTW190900

19/12 08:22 WTXS31PGTW190900

18/12 20:22 WTXS51PGTW182100

18/12 20:14 WTXS31PGTW182100

18/12 08:19 WTXS51PGTW180900

18/12 08:17 WTXS31PGTW180900

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 310300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 221231012751
2022123100 05S DARIAN 028 01 195 12 SATL 045
T000 304S 0682E 040 R034 095 NE QD 140 SE QD 115 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 327S 0683E 040 R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP 000HR EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN) WARNING NR 028
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 30.4S 68.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.4S 68.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 32.7S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 31.0S 68.2E.
31DEC22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 854
NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z
IS 21 FEET.//
0522121106 96S 959E 15
0522121112 97S 965E 15
0522121118 99S 971E 15
0522121200 101S 977E 25
0522121206 106S 977E 25
0522121212 108S 974E 25
0522121218 109S 970E 25
0522121300 107S 966E 25
0522121306 105S 962E 25
0522121312 103S 955E 25
0522121318 105S 952E 25
0522121400 107S 948E 25
0522121406 108S 940E 25
0522121412 102S 926E 25
0522121418 96S 916E 25
0522121500 88S 918E 30
0522121506 86S 924E 30
0522121512 83S 932E 30
0522121518 84S 939E 25
0522121600 86S 944E 25
0522121606 88S 948E 25
0522121612 92S 950E 25
0522121618 97S 945E 25
0522121700 102S 937E 25
0522121706 107S 934E 25
0522121712 113S 932E 25
0522121718 116S 931E 25
0522121800 117S 929E 30
0522121806 118S 927E 35
0522121812 119S 928E 40
0522121818 120S 930E 45
0522121900 121S 932E 50
0522121906 123S 933E 65
0522121906 123S 933E 65
0522121906 123S 933E 65
0522121912 126S 934E 75
0522121912 126S 934E 75
0522121912 126S 934E 75
0522121918 131S 934E 75
0522121918 131S 934E 75
0522121918 131S 934E 75
0522122000 135S 932E 90
0522122000 135S 932E 90
0522122000 135S 932E 90
0522122006 138S 929E 110
0522122006 138S 929E 110
0522122006 138S 929E 110
0522122012 141S 926E 115
0522122012 141S 926E 115
0522122012 141S 926E 115
0522122018 142S 920E 130
0522122018 142S 920E 130
0522122018 142S 920E 130
0522122100 141S 914E 130
0522122100 141S 914E 130
0522122100 141S 914E 130
0522122106 139S 907E 130
0522122106 139S 907E 130
0522122106 139S 907E 130
0522122112 138S 898E 130
0522122112 138S 898E 130
0522122112 138S 898E 130
0522122118 133S 890E 125
0522122118 133S 890E 125
0522122118 133S 890E 125
0522122200 132S 882E 120
0522122200 132S 882E 120
0522122200 132S 882E 120
0522122206 130S 874E 115
0522122206 130S 874E 115
0522122206 130S 874E 115
0522122212 129S 867E 105
0522122212 129S 867E 105
0522122212 129S 867E 105
0522122218 128S 858E 95
0522122218 128S 858E 95
0522122218 128S 858E 95
0522122300 125S 851E 95
0522122300 125S 851E 95
0522122300 125S 851E 95
0522122306 124S 843E 115
0522122306 124S 843E 115
0522122306 124S 843E 115
0522122312 123S 838E 130
0522122312 123S 838E 130
0522122312 123S 838E 130
0522122318 123S 832E 115
0522122318 123S 832E 115
0522122318 123S 832E 115
0522122400 123S 831E 105
0522122400 123S 831E 105
0522122400 123S 831E 105
0522122406 125S 832E 100
0522122406 125S 832E 100
0522122406 125S 832E 100
0522122412 130S 837E 95
0522122412 130S 837E 95
0522122412 130S 837E 95
0522122418 135S 842E 95
0522122418 135S 842E 95
0522122418 135S 842E 95
0522122500 143S 846E 85
0522122500 143S 846E 85
0522122500 143S 846E 85
0522122506 150S 848E 85
0522122506 150S 848E 85
0522122506 150S 848E 85
0522122512 155S 850E 90
0522122512 155S 850E 90
0522122512 155S 850E 90
0522122518 160S 852E 100
0522122518 160S 852E 100
0522122518 160S 852E 100
0522122600 163S 851E 110
0522122600 163S 851E 110
0522122600 163S 851E 110
0522122606 165S 850E 115
0522122606 165S 850E 115
0522122606 165S 850E 115
0522122612 168S 848E 110
0522122612 168S 848E 110
0522122612 168S 848E 110
0522122618 171S 843E 105
0522122618 171S 843E 105
0522122618 171S 843E 105
0522122700 175S 837E 90
0522122700 175S 837E 90
0522122700 175S 837E 90
0522122706 178S 828E 80
0522122706 178S 828E 80
0522122706 178S 828E 80
0522122712 181S 816E 75
0522122712 181S 816E 75
0522122712 181S 816E 75
0522122718 187S 803E 70
0522122718 187S 803E 70
0522122718 187S 803E 70
0522122800 195S 792E 60
0522122800 195S 792E 60
0522122806 203S 776E 55
0522122806 203S 776E 55
0522122812 209S 763E 55
0522122812 209S 763E 55
0522122818 215S 752E 55
0522122818 215S 752E 55
0522122900 224S 737E 55
0522122900 224S 737E 55
0522122906 234S 724E 55
0522122906 234S 724E 55
0522122912 245S 714E 50
0522122912 245S 714E 50
0522122918 254S 707E 50
0522122918 254S 707E 50
0522123000 261S 702E 45
0522123006 274S 696E 45
0522123012 284S 691E 45
0522123018 293S 686E 45
0522123100 304S 682E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 30.4S 68.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.4S 68.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 32.7S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 31.0S 68.2E.
31DEC22. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (DARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 854
NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH COLD-AIR
STRATOCUMULUS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. A 310038Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A RAGGED CENTER WITH
EXTENSIVE DRY AIR PRESENT OVER THE SYSTEM. RECENT WIND SPEED IMAGERY
REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH A WEAK FRONTAL STRUCTURE. A
301705Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWED 40-45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD CONSERVATIVELY AT 40
KNOTS. BASED ON THE AVAILABLE DATA, 05S IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BUT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS IT ACCELERATES INTO
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 21 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 301201
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/12/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 037/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 30/12/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 (EX-DARIAN) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.2 S / 69.1 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 430 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 115 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 155
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 275 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 285 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 290 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/31 AT 00 UTC:
30.5 S / 67.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 NM SE: 245 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 55 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/31 AT 12 UTC:
32.9 S / 68.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 200 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
CECI EST LE DERNIER BULLETIN DE SUIVI POUR CE SYSTEME. IL SERA
ENSUITE SUIVI PAR LE BULLETIN FQIO20 FMEE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 300617 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 36/4/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 30/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 27.3 S / 69.5 E
(VINGT SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 415 SO: 360 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 260 SO: 250 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1013 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/12/2022 18 UTC: 29.5 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 435 SO: 345 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 215 NO: 100

24H: 31/12/2022 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 455 SO: 350 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SO: 230 NO: 100

36H: 31/12/2022 18 UTC: 33.7 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 480 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SO: 240 NO: 110

48H: 01/01/2023 06 UTC: 36.0 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 510 SO: 390 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 360 SO: 250 NO: 110

60H: 01/01/2023 18 UTC: 38.1 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 535 SO: 405 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SO: 260 NO: 120

72H: 02/01/2023 06 UTC: 40.6 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 565 SO: 425 NO: 280

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=2.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA TEMPETE TROPICALE DARIAN A PEU
EVOULE DANS SA STRUCTURE. LA CONVECTION EST TOUJOURS FAIBLE, ET
ESSENTIELLEMENT PRESENTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.
L'IMAGERIE SATELLITE CONTINUE DE MONTRER UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES
ET LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD DE LA CIRCULATION EXPOSE.
LES PASSES SAR ET SMOS DE 00H48UTC ET 01H46UTC, DONNENT DES VENTS
MAXIMAUX PROCHES DE 50KT 1 MINUTE) SITUES DANS LE DEMI-CERLE SUD.
EN CONSEQUENCE, LE SYSTEME DARIAN EST MAINTENU AU STADE DE TEMPETE
TROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS DE 45KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE : DARIAN VA
CONTINUER A SE DIRIGER EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A SAMEDI EN
LIEN AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA BORDURE OCCIDENTALE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE.
A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, IL DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST EN
BORDURE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES EN APPROCHE PAR L'OUEST,
EN PRESENTANT UNE NETTE ACCELERATION. AU COURS DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE,
DARIAN DEVRAIT PASSER A PRES DE 130 KM, AU SUD-OUEST DE L'ILE
AMSTERDAM DANS LA NUIT DU 01 AU 2 JANVIER.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H, MALGRE UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE
(AUTOUR DE 25AOC) ET LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC AU NORD DU SYSTEME, DARIAN
POURRAIT SE MAINTENIR A CETTE INTENSITE PROFITANT DE LA PERSISTENCE D
UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE AU SUD. PUIS, AU COURS DE CE
WEEK-END, IL VA ENTAMER SA PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATION, PAR EFFET DE
GRADIENT, AVEC UNE ASYMETRIE DES VENTS PLUS MARQUEE ET LA PERTE DE
SON COEUR CHAUD. L'INTERACTION PROGRESSIVE AVEC UN THALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES, CONDUIRA DEFINITIVEMENT LE SYSTEME A PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 300617 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/4/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/30 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.3 S / 69.5 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 415 SW: 360 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1013 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/30 18 UTC: 29.5 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 435 SW: 345 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 100

24H: 2022/12/31 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 455 SW: 350 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 100

36H: 2022/12/31 18 UTC: 33.7 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 480 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 110

48H: 2023/01/01 06 UTC: 36.0 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 510 SW: 390 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 360 SW: 250 NW: 110

60H: 2023/01/01 18 UTC: 38.1 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 535 SW: 405 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SW: 260 NW: 120

72H: 2023/01/02 06 UTC: 40.6 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 565 SW: 425 NW: 280

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=2.5

DURING THE NIGHT OF JANUARY 01 TO 2. DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS,
TROPICAL STORM DARIAN HAS EVOLVED LITTLE IN ITS STRUCTURE. CONVECTION
IS STILL WEAK, AND MAINLY PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION EXPOSED.
THE SAR AND SMOS PASSES OF 00H48UTC AND 01H46UTC, GIVE MAXIMUM WINDS
CLOSE TO 50KT 1 MINUTE) LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE DARIAN SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AT TROPICAL STORM
STATUS WITH WINDS OF 45KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST : DARIAN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN A SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION UNTIL SATURDAY IN CONNECTION WITH
THE WEAKENING OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FROM
SATURDAY, IT SHOULD BEGIN A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN ALONG THE EDGE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, SHOWING A CLEAR
ACCELERATION. ON THIS TRACK, DARIAN SHOULD PASS AT ABOUT 130 KM,
SOUTHWEST OF AMSTERDAM ISLAND DURING THE NIGHT OF JANUARY 01 TO 2.

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, DESPITE A DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL
(AROUND 25AOC) AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM, DARIAN COULD REMAIN AT THIS INTENSITY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE
PERSISTENCE OF A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH. THEN,
DURING THIS WEEKEND, IT WILL START ITS EXTRATROPICALIZATION PHASE, BY
GRADIENT EFFECT, WITH A MORE MARKED ASYMMETRY OF THE WINDS AND THE
LOSS OF ITS WARM CORE. THE PROGRESSIVE INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL LEAD THE SYSTEM TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 300607
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/12/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 036/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 30/12/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DARIAN) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.3 S / 69.5 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 165 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 195 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 225 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/30 AT 18 UTC:
29.5 S / 68.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 NM SE: 235 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 55 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/31 AT 06 UTC:
31.5 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 190 NM SE: 245 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 55 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 300038
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 36/4/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 30/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.7 S / 69.9 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 415 SO: 360 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1013 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/12/2022 12 UTC: 28.5 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SO: 335 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 315 SO: 230 NO: 130

24H: 31/12/2022 00 UTC: 30.5 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 445 SO: 335 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SO: 215 NO: 110

36H: 31/12/2022 12 UTC: 32.9 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 380 SO: 305 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SO: 155 NO: 0

48H: 01/01/2023 00 UTC: 35.0 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 295 SO: 220 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SO: 120 NO: 85

60H: 01/01/2023 12 UTC: 37.2 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 270 SO: 175 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SO: 130 NO: 0

72H: 02/01/2023 00 UTC: 39.5 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 260 SO: 155 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SO: 130 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5- CI=2.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA TEMPETE TROPICALE DARIAN A PEU
EVOULE DANS SA STRUCTURE. LA CONVECTION EST TOUJOURS FAIBLE, ET
ESSENTIELLEMENT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES SSMIS
DE 2239 CONTINUE DE MONTRER UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES EXPOSE ET LA
PRESENCE D'AIR SEC NON LOIN AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME. LES PASSES ASCAT
DE 1645 ET DE 1730Z MESURENT DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD AVEC DES VENTS MAX AUTOUR DE 40KT AU SUD DU CENTRE.
EN FAISANT UN CONSENSUS ENTRE LES ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES
DISPONIBLES, LE SYSTEME DARIAN EST MAINTENU AU STADE DE TEMPETE
TROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS DE 40KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE : DARIAN VA
CONTINUER A SE DIRIGER EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A SAMEDI EN
LIEN AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA BORDURE OCCIDENTALE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, IL DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN VIRAGE VERS
LE SUD-EST EN BORDURE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES EN APPROCHE
PAR L'OUEST, EN PRESENTANT UNE NETTE ACCELERATION. AU COURS DE CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE, DARIAN DEVRAIT PASSER A PRES DE 160 KM, AU SUD-OUEST DE
L'ILE AMSTERDAM AUX ALENTOURS DU 2 JANVIER, EN RETRAIT DES VENTS LES
PLUS FORTS.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H, MALGRE UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE
(AUTOUR DE 25AOC) ET LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC AU NORD DU SYSTEME, DARIAN
POURRAIT CONNAITRE TEMPORAIREMENT UN LEGER REGAIN D'ACTIVITE A LA
FAVEUR D'UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE PLUS FAVORABLE. PUIS, AU COURS DE
CE WEEK-END, IL VA ENTAMER SA PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATION, PAR EFFET
DE GRADIENT, AVEC UNE ASYMETRIE DES VENTS PLUS MARQUEE ET LA PERTE DE
SON COEUR CHAUD. L'INTERACTION PROGRESSIVE AVEC UN THALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES, CONDUIRA DEFINITIVEMENT LE SYSTEME A PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES ET AINSI BASCULER EN DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AINSI QUE LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC
DANS LE SECTEUR NORD ET OUEST DEVRAIENT CONTRIBUER A AFFAIBLIR ENCORE
DARIAN ET AINSI LE FAIRE PASSER AU STADE DE DEPRESSION
EXTRA-TROPICALE AU DELA DU 40AOS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 300038
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/4/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/30 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.7 S / 69.9 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 415 SW: 360 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1013 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/30 12 UTC: 28.5 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 130

24H: 2022/12/31 00 UTC: 30.5 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 445 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 215 NW: 110

36H: 2022/12/31 12 UTC: 32.9 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 380 SW: 305 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 155 NW: 0

48H: 2023/01/01 00 UTC: 35.0 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 120 NW: 85

60H: 2023/01/01 12 UTC: 37.2 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 270 SW: 175 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 130 NW: 0

72H: 2023/01/02 00 UTC: 39.5 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 260 SW: 155 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 130 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5- CI=2.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, TROPICAL STORM DARIAN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ITS STRUCTURE. CONVECTION IS STILL WEAK, AND MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. THE SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE OF 2239 CONTINUES TO SHOW AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY OF THE SYSTEM. THE ASCAT PASSES OF 1645 AND 1730Z
MEASURE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH MAX WINDS
AROUND 40KT SOUTH OF THE CENTER. BY MAKING A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AVAILABLE, THE DARIAN SYSTEM IS
MAINTAINED AT THE TROPICAL STORM STAGE WITH WINDS OF 40KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST : DARIAN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN A SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION UNTIL SATURDAY IN CONNECTION WITH
THE WEAKENING OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FROM
SATURDAY, IT SHOULD BEGIN A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN ALONG THE EDGE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, SHOWING A CLEAR
ACCELERATION. ON THIS TRACK, DARIAN SHOULD PASS AT ABOUT 160 KM,
SOUTHWEST OF AMSTERDAM ISLAND AROUND JANUARY 2, BEHIND THE STRONGEST
WINDS.

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, DESPITE A DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL
(AROUND 25AOC) AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM, DARIAN COULD TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN DUE TO A MORE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THEN, DURING THIS WEEKEND, IT WILL START ITS
EXTRATROPICALIZATION PHASE, BY GRADIENT EFFECT, WITH A MORE MARKED
ASYMMETRY OF THE WINDS AND THE LOSS OF ITS WARM CORE. THE PROGRESSIVE
INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL LEAD THE SYSTEM TO LOSE
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND TO SWITCH TO A POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE INCREASE IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR AS WELL AS THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTOR SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKEN DARIAN
FURTHER AND THUS BECOME AN EXTRA-TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEYOND THE
40AOS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 300009
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/12/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 035/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 30/12/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DARIAN) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.7 S / 69.9 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 165 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 195 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 225 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/30 AT 12 UTC:
28.5 S / 68.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 190 NM SE: 260 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 70 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/31 AT 00 UTC:
30.5 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 NM SE: 240 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 60 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 291819
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 35/4/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 29/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.2 S / 70.7 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 335 SO: 335 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1013 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/12/2022 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 445 SO: 325 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SO: 215 NO: 130

24H: 30/12/2022 18 UTC: 29.6 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 470 SO: 325 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SO: 205 NO: 120

36H: 31/12/2022 06 UTC: 31.8 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 405 SO: 305 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SO: 185 NO: 110

48H: 31/12/2022 18 UTC: 33.8 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 315 SO: 305 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SO: 130 NO: 0

60H: 01/01/2023 06 UTC: 35.6 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 270 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 120 NO: 0

72H: 01/01/2023 18 UTC: 38.1 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 250 SO: 140 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SO: 110 NO: 120

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5- CI=2.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE DE LA TEMPETE
TROPICALE DARIAN A PEU EVOLUE ET EST RESTEE FAIBLE DANS SON QUADRANT
SUD-EST. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1645 INDIQUE DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE
VENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD, AVEC DES VENTS DE 40KT DANS LE SUD-EST
ET LE SUD DU CENTRE. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST DONC BASEE SUR
CETTE DONNEE AINSI QUE SUR LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES
DISPONIBLES. DE PLUS, L'ANALYSE DES DIAGRAMMES DE PHASE SUGGERE QUE
DARIAN BENEFICIE ENCORE, POUR LE MOMENT D'UN COEUR CHAUD DE BASSE ET
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LE SYSTEME EST DONC MAINTENU AU STADE DE TEMPETE
TROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS DE 40KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE : DARIAN VA
CONTINUER A SE DIRIGER EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A SAMEDI EN
LIEN AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA BORDURE OCCIDENTALE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, IL DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN VIRAGE VERS
LE SUD-EST EN BORDURE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES EN APPROCHE
PAR L'OUEST, EN PRESENTANT UNE NETTE ACCELERATION. AU COURS DE CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE, DARIAN DEVRAIT PASSER A PRES DE 160 KM, AU SUD-OUEST DE
L'ILE AMSTERDAM AUX ALENTOURS DU 2 JANVIER, EN RETRAIT DES VENTS LES
PLUS FORTS.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H, MALGRE UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE
(AUTOUR DE 25AOC) ET LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC AU NORD DU SYSTEME, DARIAN
POURRAIT CONNAITRE TEMPORAIREMENT UN LEGER REGAIN D'ACTIVITE A LA
FAVEUR D UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE PLUS FAVORABLE. PUIS, AU COURS DE
CE WEEK-END, IL VA ENTAMER SA PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATION, PAR EFFET
DE GRADIENT, AVEC UNE ASYMETRIE DES VENTS PLUS MARQUEE ET LA PERTE DE
SON COEUR CHAUD. L'INTERACTION PROGRESSIVE AVEC UN THALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES, CONDUIRA DEFINITIVEMENT LE SYSTEME A PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES ET AINSI BASCULER EN DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AINSI QUE LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC
DANS LE SECTEUR NORD ET OUEST DEVRAIENT CONTRIBUER A AFFAIBLIR ENCORE
DARIAN ET AINSI DEVENIR UNE DEPRESSION EXTRA-TROPICALE AU DELA DU
40AOS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 291819
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/4/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/29 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2 S / 70.7 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 335 SW: 335 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1013 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/30 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 445 SW: 325 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 130

24H: 2022/12/30 18 UTC: 29.6 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 470 SW: 325 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SW: 205 NW: 120

36H: 2022/12/31 06 UTC: 31.8 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 405 SW: 305 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 110

48H: 2022/12/31 18 UTC: 33.8 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 315 SW: 305 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 130 NW: 0

60H: 2023/01/01 06 UTC: 35.6 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 120 NW: 0

72H: 2023/01/01 18 UTC: 38.1 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 250 SW: 140 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SW: 110 NW: 120

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5- CI=2.5

DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OF TROPICAL STORM DARIAN
HAS CHANGED LITTLE AND REMAINED WEAK IN ITS SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE
1645 ASCAT PASS INDICATES GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, WITH WINDS OF 40KT IN THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS THEREFORE BASED ON THIS DATA AS WELL AS
AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DATA. MOREOVER, THE ANALYSIS OF
THE PHASE DIAGRAMS SUGGESTS THAT DARIAN STILL BENEFITS, FOR THE
MOMENT, FROM A WARM CORE OF LOW AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. THE SYSTEM IS
THUS MAINTAINED AT THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS OF 40KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST : DARIAN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN A SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION UNTIL SATURDAY IN CONNECTION WITH
THE WEAKENING OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FROM
SATURDAY, IT SHOULD BEGIN A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN ALONG THE EDGE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, SHOWING A CLEAR
ACCELERATION. ON THIS TRACK, DARIAN SHOULD PASS AT ABOUT 160 KM,
SOUTHWEST OF AMSTERDAM ISLAND AROUND JANUARY 2, BEHIND THE STRONGEST
WINDS.

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, DESPITE A DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL
(AROUND 25AOC) AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM, DARIAN COULD TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN DUE TO A MORE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THEN, DURING THIS WEEKEND, IT WILL START ITS
EXTRATROPICALIZATION PHASE, BY GRADIENT EFFECT, WITH A MORE MARKED
ASYMMETRY OF THE WINDS AND THE LOSS OF ITS WARM CORE. THE PROGRESSIVE
INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL LEAD THE SYSTEM TO LOSE
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND TO SWITCH TO A POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE INCREASE IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR AS WELL AS THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTOR SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKEN DARIAN
FURTHER AND THUS BECOME AN EXTRA-TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEYOND THE
40AOS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 291805
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/12/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 034/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 29/12/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DARIAN) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2 S / 70.7 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/30 AT 06 UTC:
27.5 S / 69.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 200 NM SE: 240 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 70 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/30 AT 18 UTC:
29.6 S / 67.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 210 NM SE: 255 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 65 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 291304
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 34/4/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 29/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.5 S / 71.4 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 575 SO: 465 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 390 SO: 260 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1013 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/12/2022 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 480 SO: 350 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 315 SO: 205 NO: 85

24H: 30/12/2022 12 UTC: 28.7 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 530 SO: 350 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 345 SO: 250 NO: 120

36H: 31/12/2022 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 490 SO: 345 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SO: 215 NO: 95

48H: 31/12/2022 12 UTC: 32.8 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 360 SO: 295 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 130 NO: 100

60H: 01/01/2023 00 UTC: 34.8 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 285 SO: 165 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SO: 95 NO: 85

72H: 01/01/2023 12 UTC: 37.1 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 305 SO: 165 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SO: 140 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/01/2023 12 UTC: 43.1 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 280 SO: 165 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SO: 95 NO: 0

120H: 03/01/2023 12 UTC: 48.7 S / 108.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 695 SO: 500 NO: 285

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5- CI=2.5+

AU COURS DE L'APRA S-MIDI, L' ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST NON SEULEMENT
RESTA E FAIBLE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST DU SYSTEME, MAIS ELLE S'EST
EGALEMENT PROGRESSIVEMENT ELOIGNEE DU CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES.
CELUI-CI EST D'AILLEURS RESTE EXPOSE AU NORD-OUEST DE LA MASSE
NUAGEUSE PRINCIPALE COMME LE SUGGERE ASSEZ DISTINCTEMENT LA SSMIS DE
1126Z OU ENCORE LA AMSR-2 DE 0846Z. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST
BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES DONNEES OBJECTIVES (ADT, AIDT, SATCON) ET
SUBJECTIVE (PGTW, KNES, FMEE), QUI SUGGERENT ENCORE DES VENTS DE
FORCE COUP DE VENT DANS LE SUD-EST DE LA CIRCULATION DU SYSTEME.
L'ETUDE DES DIAGRAMMES DE PHASE, AINSI QUE LES DERNIERES DONNEES
D'ALTITUDE AMSU-A LAISSENT A PENSER QUE DARIAN BENEFICIE ENCORE, POUR
LE MOMENT D'UN COEUR CHAUD DE BASSE ET MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE : DARIAN VA
CONTINUER A SE DIRIGER EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A SAMEDI EN
LIEN AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA BORDURE OCCIDENTALE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, IL DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN VIRAGE VERS
LE SUD-EST EN BORDURE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES EN APPROCHE
PAR L'OUEST, EN PRESENTANT UNE NETTE ACCELERATION. AU COURS DE CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE, DARIAN DEVRAIT PASSER A PRES DE 925 KM, AU NORD-EST DE
L'ILE AMSTERDAM AUX ALENTOURS DU 2 JANVIER, EN RETRAIT DES VENTS LES
PLUS FORTS.

L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE DARIAN EST DU ESSENTIELLEMENT A L'ABSENCE DE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE; IL RENCONTRE EN EFFET DES EAUX DE SURFACE ASSEZ
FRAICHES DE L'ORDRE DE 25AOC. DARIAN DISPOSE TOUJOURS D'UN SOLIDE
COEUR CHAUD EN BASSES COUCHES ET EN ALTITUDE, SELON LES DERNIERES
DONNA ES AMSU-A. DANS LES 24H, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT TRES
TEMPORAIREMENT SE RENFORCER JUSTE AVANT SA PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATI
ON, PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT, AVEC UNE ASYMETRIE DES VENTS QUI
POURRAIENT ETRE PLUS MARQUEE. EN FIN DE SEMAINE, L'INTERACTION
PROGRESSIVE AVEC UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES, CONDUIRA
DEFINITIVEMENT LE SYSTEME A PERDRE PLUS RAPIDEMENT SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES ET AINSI BASCULER EN DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE AU COURS DE CE WEEK-END. PAR LA SUITE, LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AINSI QUE LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC
DANS LE SECTEUR NORD ET OUEST DEVRAIENT CONTRIBUER A AFFAIBLIR ENCORE
DARIAN. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS MIGRER EN SYSTEME EXTRA-TROPICAL EN
DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, AVEC UNE POURSUITE D'UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
GRADUEL DES VENTS AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 291304
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/4/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.5 S / 71.4 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 575 SW: 465 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 390 SW: 260 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1013 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/30 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 480 SW: 350 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 315 SW: 205 NW: 85

24H: 2022/12/30 12 UTC: 28.7 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 530 SW: 350 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 345 SW: 250 NW: 120

36H: 2022/12/31 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 490 SW: 345 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 215 NW: 95

48H: 2022/12/31 12 UTC: 32.8 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 360 SW: 295 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 130 NW: 100

60H: 2023/01/01 00 UTC: 34.8 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 285 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 95 NW: 85

72H: 2023/01/01 12 UTC: 37.1 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 305 SW: 165 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 140 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/02 12 UTC: 43.1 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 280 SW: 165 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 95 NW: 0

120H: 2023/01/03 12 UTC: 48.7 S / 108.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 695 SW: 500 NW: 285

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5- CI=2.5+

OVER THE AFTERNOON, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOT ONLY REMAINED WEAK IN
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM, BUT ALSO PROGRESSIVELY MOVED
AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER (LLC). THE LLC REMAINED EXPOSED TO THE
NORTH-WEST OF THE MAIN CLOUD MASS, AS SUGGESTED BY THE 1126Z SSMIS OR
THE 0846Z AMSR-2. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
OBJECTIVE (ADT, AIDT, SATCON) AND SUBJECTIVE (PGTW, KNES, FMEE) DATA,
WHICH STILL SUGGEST GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
CIRCULATION. THE STUDY OF THE PHASE DIAGRAMS, AS WELL AS THE LAST
AMSU-A ALTITUDE DATA SUGGEST THAT DARIAN STILL BENEFITS, FOR THE
MOMENT, FROM A WARM CORE OF LOW AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST : DARIAN WILL TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL SATURDAY IN CONNECTION WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, IT
SHOULD BEGIN A SOUTHEASTERLY TURN ALONG THE EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, SHOWING A CLEAR ACCELERATION. ON
THIS TRACK, DARIAN SHOULD MOVE TO ABOUT 925 KM, NORTHEAST OF
AMSTERDAM ISLAND AROUND JANUARY 2, BEHIND THE STRONGEST WINDS.

DARIAN'S WEAKENING IS MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL
(OHC); IT ENCOUNTERS FAIRLY COOL SURFACE WATERS OF ABOUT 25AOC.
DARIAN STILL HAS A STRONG WARM CORE IN THE LOWER LAYERS AND ALOFT,
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST AMSU-A DATA. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM
COULD VERY TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN JUST BEFORE ITS
EXTRATROPICALIZATION PHASE, BY GRADIENT EFFECT, WITH A WIND ASYMMETRY
WHICH COULD BE MORE MARKED. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, THE PROGRESSIVE
INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL LEAD THE SYSTEM TO LOSE
ITS TROPICAL FEATURES MORE QUICKLY AND THUS TO SWITCH TO A
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER, THE
INCREASE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR AS WELL AS THE PRESENCE OF DRY
AIR IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTOR SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER
WEAKEN DARIAN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN MIGRATE TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL
SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A CONTINUATION OF A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
THE WINDS WITHIN THE DEPRESSION CIRCULATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 291203
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/12/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 033/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 29/12/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DARIAN) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.5 S / 71.4 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 310 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/30 AT 00 UTC:
26.6 S / 69.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 260 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/30 AT 12 UTC:
28.7 S / 68.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 NM SE: 285 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 65 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 290633
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 33/4/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 29/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.4 S / 72.5 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 575 SO: 465 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 390 SO: 260 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1013 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 29/12/2022 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 480 SO: 350 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SO: 205 NO: 85

24H: 30/12/2022 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 500 SO: 350 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SO: 220 NO: 110

36H: 30/12/2022 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 520 SO: 370 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 345 SO: 250 NO: 140

48H: 31/12/2022 06 UTC: 31.7 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 470 SO: 335 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SO: 230 NO: 100

60H: 31/12/2022 18 UTC: 33.8 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 390 SO: 205 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 150 NO: 95

72H: 01/01/2023 06 UTC: 35.7 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 345 SO: 205 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SO: 130 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/01/2023 06 UTC: 41.0 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 350 SO: 175 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SO: 150 NO: 110

120H: 03/01/2023 06 UTC: 46.5 S / 97.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 335 SO: 260 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L' ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST RESTEE
TRES AFFAIBLIE, LOCALISEE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST DU SYSTEME, EN
RETRAIT DU CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES, EXPOSE AU NORD-OUEST DE LA MASSE
NUAGEUSE PRINCIPALE, COMME LE MONTRE L'IMAGERIE GEOSTATIONNAIRE,
AINSI QUE LA PASSE GPM DE 0424 UTC QUI A EGALEMENT PERMIS DE RECALER
LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES. L'ASCAT PARTIELLE DE 0459Z A PERMIS DE
VALIDER L'INTENSITE DES DERNIERES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES, AINSI QUE LA
MISE A JOUR DES EXTENSIONS DE VENTS. AU VU DE LA FAIBLE ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE EN COURS, L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE SUBJECTIVE DE DVORAK NE
SEMBLE PLUS VRAIMENT PERTINENTE, ET LA PRIORITE EST DAVANTAGE DONNEE
AUX DONNEES DIFFUSIOMETRIQUES. AINSI, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME EST
LEGEREMENT REVUE A LA BAISSE, POUR 40 NOEUDS.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE : DARIAN VA
CONTINUER A SE DIRIGER PLUS VERS LE SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A VENDREDI EN
LIEN AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SUR SON BORD
OCCIDENTAL. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, IL DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN VIRAGE VERS LE
SUD-EST EN BORDURE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES EN APPROCHE PAR
L'OUEST, EN PRESENTANT UNE ACCELERATION NETTEMENT PLUS MARQUEE QUE
LORS DE LA PRECEDENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. AU COURS DE CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE, DARIAN DEVRAIT PASSER A PRES DE 900 KM, AU NORD-EST DE
L'ILE AMSTERDAM AUX ALENTOURS DU 2 JANVIER, EN RETRAIT DES VENTS LES
PLUS FORTS.

L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE DARIAN EST DU ESSENTIELLEMENT A L'ABSENCE DE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE; IL RENCONTRE EN EFFET DES EAUX DE SURFACE ASSEZ
FRAICHES DE L'ORDRE DE 25AOC. DARIAN DISPOSE TOUJOURS D'UN SOLIDE
COEUR CHAUD EN BASSES COUCHES ET EN ALTITUDE, SELON LES DERNIERES
DONNA ES AMSU-A. DANS LES 24H, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT TRES
TEMPORAIREMENT SE RENFORCER JUSTE AVANT SA PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATI
ON, AVEC UNE ASYMETRIE DES VENTS QUI POURRAIENT ETRE PLUS MARQUEE. EN
FIN DE SEMAINE, L'INTERACTION PROGRESSIVE AVEC UN TALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES, CONDUIRA DEFINITIVEMENT LE SYSTEME A PERDRE PLUS
RAPIDEMENT SES CARACTERISIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES ET AINSI BASCULER
EN DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE EN FIN DE SEMAINE. PAR LA SUITE, LA
HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AINSI QUE LA PRESENCE
D'AIR SEC DANS LE SECTEUR NORD PUIS OUEST DEVRAIENT CONTRIBUER A
AFFAIBLIR ENCORE DARIAN. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS MIGRER EN SYSTEME
EXTRA-TROPICAL EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, AVEC UNE POURSUITE D'UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT GRADUEL DES VENTS AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION
DEPRESSIONNAIRE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 290633
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/4/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/29 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 72.5 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 575 SW: 465 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 390 SW: 260 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1013 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/29 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 480 SW: 350 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SW: 205 NW: 85

24H: 2022/12/30 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 500 SW: 350 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 110

36H: 2022/12/30 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 520 SW: 370 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 345 SW: 250 NW: 140

48H: 2022/12/31 06 UTC: 31.7 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 470 SW: 335 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 100

60H: 2022/12/31 18 UTC: 33.8 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 390 SW: 205 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 150 NW: 95

72H: 2023/01/01 06 UTC: 35.7 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 345 SW: 205 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 130 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/02 06 UTC: 41.0 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 350 SW: 175 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SW: 150 NW: 110

120H: 2023/01/03 06 UTC: 46.5 S / 97.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 335 SW: 260 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED VERY WEAK,
LOCALIZED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM, AWAY FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER, EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN CLOUD MASS, AS
SHOWN BY GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY, AS WELL AS THE 0424 UTC GPM SWATH
WHICH ALSO ALLOWED TO REALIGN THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE PARTIAL 0459Z
ASCAT HAS ALLOWED TO VALIDATE THE INTENSITY OF THE LAST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE, AS WELL AS THE UPDATE OF THE WIND EXTENSIONS. GIVEN THE
WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, THE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATION OF
DVORAK DOES NOT SEEM TO BE RELEVANT ANYMORE, AND THE PRIORITY IS
GIVEN TO SCATTEROMETRIC DATA. THUS, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS
SLIGHTLY REDUCED, FOR 40 KNOTS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY FORECAST : DARIAN WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE MORE SOUTH-WESTWARD UNTIL FRIDAY IN RELATION WITH THE
WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ON ITS WESTERN EDGE. STARTING
SATURDAY, IT SHOULD BEGIN A SOUTHEASTERLY TURN ALONG THE EDGE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, WITH A MUCH GREATER
ACCELERATION THAN IN THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. ON THIS TRACK,
DARIAN IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEARLY 900 KM NORTHEAST OF AMSTERDAM
ISLAND AROUND JANUARY 2, AWAY FROM THE STRONGEST WINDS.

DARIAN'S WEAKENING IS MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL;
IT ENCOUNTERS FAIRLY COOL SURFACE WATERS OF ABOUT 25AOC. DARIAN STILL
HAS A STRONG WARM CORE IN THE LOWER LAYERS AND ALOFT, ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST AMSU-A DATA. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM COULD VERY
TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN JUST BEFORE ITS EXTRATROPICALIZATION PHASE,
WITH A WIND ASYMMETRY THAT COULD BE MORE MARKED. AT THE END OF THE
WEEK, THE PROGRESSIVE INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
LEAD THE SYSTEM TO LOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS MORE
QUICKLY AND THUS TO SWITCH TO A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THE END
OF THE WEEK. THEREAFTER, THE INCREASE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR AS
WELL AS THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR AND THEN WEST
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER WEAKEN DARIAN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN
MIGRATE INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A
CONTINUATION OF A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE WINDS WITHIN THE
DEPRESSION CIRCULATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 290040
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/4/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 29/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.4 S / 74.0 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 535 SO: 425 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 29/12/2022 12 UTC: 24.7 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 465 SO: 370 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 120

24H: 30/12/2022 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 490 SO: 380 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SO: 240 NO: 120

36H: 30/12/2022 12 UTC: 28.6 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 510 SO: 400 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 335 SO: 250 NO: 120

48H: 31/12/2022 00 UTC: 30.6 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 530 SO: 405 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 350 SO: 260 NO: 130

60H: 31/12/2022 12 UTC: 32.5 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 555 SO: 425 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SO: 270 NO: 130

72H: 01/01/2023 00 UTC: 34.5 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 575 SO: 435 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 400 SO: 270 NO: 140

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/01/2023 00 UTC: 38.8 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 620 SO: 465 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 445 SO: 285 NO: 140

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST DE
NOUVEAU AFFAIBLIE. ELLE EST PRINCIPALEMENT LOCALISEE DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD DE DARIAN EN SE RAPPROCHANT PLUS DU CENTRE. LES DERNIERES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES MONTRENT UNE STRUCTURE MOINS BIEN DEFINIE NE FACILITANT
PAS LA LOCALISATION PRECISE DU CENTRE. DANS DE TELLES CONDITIONS,
L'ANALYSE DVORAK EST REVUE A LA BAISSE MAIS L'HISTORIQUE DES
ESTIMATIONS MICRO-ONDES COMME LES DONNEES SAR DE 1327UTC PLAIDENT
POUR UNE ESTIMATION DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 45KT. DARIAN PASSE DONC
AU SEUIL DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE.

AU COURS DES DERNIERS INSTANTS, UNE TENDANCE PLUS SUD-OUEST EST
NOTABLE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE. EN TERME DE PREVISION, PEU DE CHANGEMENT
: DARIAN VA CONTINUER A SE DIRIGER PLUS VERS LE SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A
VENDREDI EN LIEN AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
SUR SON BORD OCCIDENTAL. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, IL DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN
VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST EN BORDURE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES
EN APPROCHE PAR L'OUEST, EN PRESENTANT UNE ACCELERATION PLUS MARQUEE
QUE LORS DE LA PRECEDENTE PREVISION. AU COURS DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE,
DARIAN POURRAIT PASSER A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE L'ILE AMSTERDAM AUX
ALENTOURS DU 2 JANVIER.

L'ABSENCE DE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EST BIEN NOTABLE ACTUELLEMENT AVEC
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT MARQUE DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE. DANS CES
CONDITIONS, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT PERDRE PLUS RAPIDEMENT CES
CARACTERISIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES ET AINSI BASCULER EN
POST-TROPICAL DANS MOINS DE 24H. PAR LA SUITE, LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AINSI QUE LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC
DANS LE SECTEUR NORD PUIS OUEST DEVRAIENT CONTRIBUER A AFFAIBLIR
ENCORE DARIAN. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS MIGRER EN SYSTEME
EXTRA-TROPICAL EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, AVEC UNE POURSUITE D'UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT GRADUEL DES VENTS AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION
DEPRESSIONNAIRE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 290040
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/4/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/29 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.4 S / 74.0 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 535 SW: 425 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/29 12 UTC: 24.7 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 465 SW: 370 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 120

24H: 2022/12/30 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 490 SW: 380 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 120

36H: 2022/12/30 12 UTC: 28.6 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 510 SW: 400 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 335 SW: 250 NW: 120

48H: 2022/12/31 00 UTC: 30.6 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 530 SW: 405 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 350 SW: 260 NW: 130

60H: 2022/12/31 12 UTC: 32.5 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 555 SW: 425 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 270 NW: 130

72H: 2023/01/01 00 UTC: 34.5 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 575 SW: 435 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 400 SW: 270 NW: 140

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/02 00 UTC: 38.8 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 620 SW: 465 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 445 SW: 285 NW: 140

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AGAIN.
IT IS MAINLY LOCALIZED IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF DARIAN, GETTING
CLOSER TO THE CENTER. THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW A LESS WELL
DEFINED STRUCTURE WHICH DOES NOT FACILITATE THE PRECISE LOCALIZATION
OF THE CENTER. IN SUCH CONDITIONS, THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS REVISED
DOWNWARDS BUT THE HISTORY OF THE MICROWAVE ESTIMATES AS WELL AS THE
SAR DATA FROM 1327UTC PLEAD FOR A WIND ESTIMATE OF THE ORDER OF 45KT.
DARIAN IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.

IN THE LAST MOMENTS, A MORE SOUTH-WESTERLY TREND IS NOTICEABLE ON THE
TRACK. IN TERMS OF FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE : DARIAN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE MORE SOUTH-WESTWARD UNTIL FRIDAY IN CONNECTION WITH THE
WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ON ITS WESTERN EDGE. FROM SATURDAY
ONWARDS, IT SHOULD BEGIN A SOUTHEASTERLY TURN ALONG THE EDGE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, SHOWING A MORE MARKED
ACCELERATION THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ON THIS TRACK, DARIAN MAY
PASS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO AMSTERDAM ISLAND AROUND JANUARY 2.

THE ABSENCE OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY NOTICEABLE WITH A
MARKED WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS,
THE SYSTEM COULD LOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS MORE
QUICKLY AND THUS SWITCH TO POST-TROPICAL IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, INCREASED MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR AND DRY AIR IN THE NORTH
AND THEN WEST SHOULD HELP TO FURTHER WEAKEN DARIAN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
THEN MIGRATE INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A
CONTINUATION OF A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE WINDS WITHIN THE
DEPRESSIONAL CIRCULATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 282354
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/12/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 29/12/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DARIAN) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.4 S / 74.0 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 290 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/29 AT 12 UTC:
24.7 S / 71.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 250 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 65 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/30 AT 00 UTC:
26.6 S / 69.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 265 NM SW: 205 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 65 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 281822
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/4/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 28/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.3 S / 74.9 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 535 SO: 425 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 29/12/2022 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 465 SO: 370 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 120

24H: 29/12/2022 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 480 SO: 380 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SO: 250 NO: 120

36H: 30/12/2022 06 UTC: 27.4 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 500 SO: 400 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SO: 260 NO: 120

48H: 30/12/2022 18 UTC: 29.5 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 530 SO: 405 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SO: 270 NO: 130

60H: 31/12/2022 06 UTC: 31.6 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 545 SO: 425 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 130

72H: 31/12/2022 18 UTC: 33.3 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 565 SO: 435 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SO: 285 NO: 140

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/01/2023 18 UTC: 36.7 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 610 SO: 465 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 335 SO: 295 NO: 140

120H: 02/01/2023 18 UTC: 41.4 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 650 SO: 490 NO: 270

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

COMME REMARQUE PRECEDEMMENT, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A CONTINUER DE SE
RENFORCER PUIS SE MAINTENIR AU COURS DES 4 DERNIERES HEURES. CETTE
ACTIVITE EST PRINCIPALEMENT LOCALISEE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD DE DARIAN
A PRES DE 30 MN DU CENTRE. DANS CES CONDITIONS L'ANALYSE DVORAK PEUT
ETRE TEMPORAIREMENT MONTEE A 3.0+ ET L'ESTIMATION DE VENT PRECEDENTE
DE 50KT DEDUITE DES MESURES DIFFUSIOMETRIQUES EST ENCORE VALABLE.
DARIAN RESTE DONC AU SEUIL DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION QUE CE SOIT EN
TRAJECTOIRE OU EN INTENSITE : LES GUIDANCES CONTINUENT DE MONTRER UN
GLOBAL BON ACCORD AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS. DARIAN VA CONTINUER A
SE DIRIGER GRADUELLEMENT PLUS VERS LE SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A VENDREDI EN
LIEN AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SUR SON BORD
OCCIDENTAL. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, IL DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN VIRAGE VERS LE
SUD-EST EN BORDURE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES EN APPROCHE PAR
L'OUEST. AU COURS DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, DARIAN POURRAIT PASSER A
PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE L'ILE AMSTERDAM AUX ALENTOURS DU 2 JANVIER.

DARIAN NE DISPOSE PLUS D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT ET DEVRAIT
S'AFFAIBLIR LENTEMENT TOUT AU LONG DE CETTE SEMAINE. LE CISAILLEMENT
MOYEN ET PROFOND ETANT PREVU RESTER FAIBLE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
24H, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE QUI A REPRIS DERNIEREMENT DEVRAIT SE
MAINTENIR TIMIDEMENT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 12H. LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AINSI QUE LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC
DANS LE SECTEUR NORD DEVRAIENT CONTRIBUER A AFFAIBLIR ENCORE DARIAN.
A ECHEANCE DE VENDREDI, DARIAN DEVRAIT DONC COMMENCER A EVOLUER EN
SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS MIGRER EN SYSTEME
EXTRA-TROPICAL EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, AVEC UNE POURSUITE D'UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT GRADUEL DES VENTS AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION
DEPRESSIONNAIRE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 281822
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/4/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/28 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3 S / 74.9 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 535 SW: 425 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/29 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 465 SW: 370 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 120

24H: 2022/12/29 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 480 SW: 380 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 120

36H: 2022/12/30 06 UTC: 27.4 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 500 SW: 400 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 120

48H: 2022/12/30 18 UTC: 29.5 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 530 SW: 405 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 130

60H: 2022/12/31 06 UTC: 31.6 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 545 SW: 425 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 130

72H: 2022/12/31 18 UTC: 33.3 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 565 SW: 435 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SW: 285 NW: 140

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/01 18 UTC: 36.7 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 610 SW: 465 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 140

120H: 2023/01/02 18 UTC: 41.4 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 650 SW: 490 NW: 270

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

AS NOTICED BEFORE, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO
STRENGTHEN AND THEN MAINTAIN ITSELF DURING THE LAST 4 HOURS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LOCALIZED IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF DARIAN AT
ABOUT 30 MN FROM THE CENTER. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS THE DVORAK
ANALYSIS CAN BE TEMPORARILY RAISED AT 3.0+ AND THE PREVIOUS WIND
ESTIMATE OF 50KT DERIVED FROM DIFFUSIOMETRIC MEASUREMENTS IS STILL
VALID. DARIAN THEREFORE REMAINS AT THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM
THRESHOLD.

NO CHANGE IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE FORECAST EITHER IN TRACK OR IN
INTENSITY: THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DARIAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GRADUALLY MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ON ITS WESTERN
EDGE WEAKENS. STARTING SATURDAY, IT SHOULD BEGIN A SOUTHEASTERLY TURN
ALONG THE EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ON
THIS TRACK, DARIAN MAY PASS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO AMSTERDAM ISLAND
AROUND JANUARY 2.

DARIAN NO LONGER HAS SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND SHOULD WEAKEN
SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. AS THE MID AND DEEP SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEAK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT
HAS RESUMED RECENTLY SHOULD CONTINUE TIMIDLY DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THE INCREASE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR AND THE PRESENCE OF
DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER WEAKENING
OF DARIAN. BY FRIDAY, DARIAN SHOULD START TO EVOLVE INTO A
POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN MIGRATE INTO AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A CONTINUATION OF A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE WINDS WITHIN THE DEPRESSIONAL CIRCULATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 281748
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/12/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 28/12/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DARIAN) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3 S / 74.9 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 280 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 75
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 290 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/29 AT 06 UTC:
23.5 S / 72.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 250 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 65 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/29 AT 18 UTC:
25.5 S / 70.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 260 NM SW: 205 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 65 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 281237
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 30/4/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 28/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.7 S / 76.3 E
(VINGT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 535 SO: 425 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 335 SO: 240 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 170 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 29/12/2022 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 530 SO: 380 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 85

24H: 29/12/2022 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 445 SO: 360 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SO: 205 NO: 75

36H: 30/12/2022 00 UTC: 26.4 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 465 SO: 350 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SO: 215 NO: 85

48H: 30/12/2022 12 UTC: 28.5 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 480 SO: 370 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SO: 240 NO: 130

60H: 31/12/2022 00 UTC: 30.6 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 435 SO: 325 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 195 NO: 100

72H: 31/12/2022 12 UTC: 32.5 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 425 SO: 285 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SO: 150 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/01/2023 12 UTC: 35.8 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 285 SO: 205 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SO: 110 NO: 100

120H: 02/01/2023 12 UTC: 39.0 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 100 NO: 75

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 3 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST
RENFORCEE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST A 30-40 MN DU CENTRE, QUI RESTE
BIEN VISIBLE A L'IMAGERIE GEOSTATIONNAIRE. LES VENTS AMSR2 DE 0807Z
DONNENT 46 KT AU MAXIMUM MAIS EN BORD DE FAUCHEE. COMPTE TENU DE LA
RECENTE TENDANCE A L'AMELIORATION RELATIVE DE LA CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE, L'INTENSITE EST LAISSEE A 50 KT EN ATTENDANT D'AUTRES
ESTIMATIONS PLUS OBJECTIVES DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION OU LES
GUIDANCES CONTINUENT DE MONTRER UN GLOBAL BON ACCORD AU COURS DES
PROCHAINS JOURS:
DARIAN VA CONTINUER A SE DIRIGER GRADUELLEMENT PLUS VERS LE SUD-OUEST
JUSQU'A VENDREDI EN LIEN AVEC LA FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
SUR SON BORD OCCIDENTAL. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, IL DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN
VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST EN BORDURE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES
EN APPROCHE PAR L'OUEST. VERS LE 2 JANVIER, IL POURRAIT PASSER A
PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE L'ILE AMSTERDAM.

DARIAN NE DISPOSE PLUS D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE FAVORABLE ET DEVRAIT
S'AFFAIBLIR LENTEMENT TOUT AU LONG DE CETTE SEMAINE. LE CISAILLEMENT
MOYEN ET PROFOND ETANT PREVU RESTER FAIBLE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
24H, IL N'EST PAS EXCLU QUE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE REUSSISSE A SE
RESTRUCTURER A LA FAVEUR DU CYCLE DIURNE (NOTAMMENT LA NUIT
PROCHAINE). UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
POURRAIT SE METTRE EN PLACE DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI ET
DARIAN DEVRAIT AUSSI EN PARALLELE INTERAGIR AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL
PLUS AU SUD. DARIAN DEVRAIT DONC COMMENCER SA PHASE DE TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICALE JEUDI SOIR OU EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI. CELLE-CI DEVRAIT
ETRE COMPLETEMENT ACHEVEE EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, AVEC UNE
POURSUITE D'UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT GRADUEL DES VENTS AU SEIN DE LA
CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 281237
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/4/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 76.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 535 SW: 425 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 170 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/29 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 530 SW: 380 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 85

24H: 2022/12/29 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 445 SW: 360 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 75

36H: 2022/12/30 00 UTC: 26.4 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 465 SW: 350 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 85

48H: 2022/12/30 12 UTC: 28.5 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 480 SW: 370 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 130

60H: 2022/12/31 00 UTC: 30.6 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 435 SW: 325 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 100

72H: 2022/12/31 12 UTC: 32.5 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 425 SW: 285 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 150 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/01 12 UTC: 35.8 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 100

120H: 2023/01/02 12 UTC: 39.0 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 100 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST 3 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER
THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT 30-40 MN FROM THE CENTER, WHICH REMAINS
WELL VISIBLE ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. THE AMSR2 WINDS OF 0807Z GIVE
46 KT AT THE MAXIMUM BUT AT THE EDGE OF THE SWATH. CONSIDERING THE
RECENT TREND OF RELATIVE IMPROVEMENT OF THE CLOUD PATTERN, THE
INTENSITY IS HOLD AT 50 KT WHILE WAITING FOR OTHER MORE OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO
SHOW OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS:
DARIAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GRADUALLY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UNTIL
FRIDAY IN CONNECTION WITH THE WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ON
ITS WESTERN EDGE. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, IT SHOULD BEGIN A
SOUTHEASTWARD TURN ALONG THE EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AROUND JANUARY 2, IT MAY PASS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO AMSTERDAM ISLAND.

DARIAN NO LONGER HAS A FAVORABLE OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. AS THE MID AND DEEP SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, IT IS NOT EXCLUDED
THAT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SUCCEED IN RESTRUCTURING WITH THE
HELP OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE (ESPECIALLY TONIGHT). AN INCREASE IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR COULD INCREASED THURSDAY NIGHT AND DARIAN
SHOULD ALSO INTERACT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET FURTHER SOUTH. DARIAN
IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PHASE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THIS TRANSITION SHOULD BE COMPLETED EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH A CONTINUATION OF A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE WINDS
WITHIN THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 281214
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/12/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 029/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 28/12/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DARIAN) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 76.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 90
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 290 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/29 AT 00 UTC:
22.5 S / 73.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 285 NM SW: 205 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/29 AT 12 UTC:
24.5 S / 71.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 240 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 280649
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 29/4/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 28/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.2 S / 77.7 E
(VINGT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 555 SO: 425 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 285 SO: 240 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/12/2022 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 535 SO: 380 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 305 SO: 230 NO: 95

24H: 29/12/2022 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 480 SO: 350 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SO: 205 NO: 75

36H: 29/12/2022 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 470 SO: 345 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 205 NO: 75

48H: 30/12/2022 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 470 SO: 335 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 95

60H: 30/12/2022 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 470 SO: 335 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 215 NO: 110

72H: 31/12/2022 06 UTC: 31.2 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 390 SO: 335 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 185 NO: 120

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/01/2023 06 UTC: 34.6 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 445 SO: 285 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SO: 195 NO: 130

120H: 02/01/2023 06 UTC: 38.8 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 400 SO: 250 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SO: 130 NO: 65

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5- CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE DARIAN
S'EST GRADUELLEMENT APPARENTEE A CELLE D'UN SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE
POST-TROPICAL AVEC UNE CONVECTION PROFONDE AFFAIBLIE ET ASYMETRIQUE
AUTOUR DU CENTRE QUI APPARAIT COMPLETEMENT EXPOSE. LE CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL ETANT FAIBLE, CETTE STRUCTURE EST LIEE AU MANQUE DE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME EVOLUE MAINTENANT SUR DES
EAUX A MOINS DE 26C EN SURFACE. CE MANQUE DE CARBURANT A AINSI PERMIS
A DE L'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE (VERS 400-300 HPA) DE GAGNER
AU-DESSUS DU CENTRE PAR LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD (CONFERANT AU SYSTEME SON
ALLURE CISAILLEE). LES ANALYSES DE PHASE CONFIRMENT POUR L'INSTANT
TOUJOURS UN COEUR CHAUD SYMETRIQUE ET PROFOND. L'ANALYSE D'INTENSITE
EST BASEE SUR LES DEUX PASS ASCAT B ET C DE CE MATIN (VERS
0330Z-0430Z) QUI SUGGERRENT QUE DES VENTS A 50 KT EXISTENT TOUJOURS
DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. LE SYSTEME RESTE DONC CLASSIFIE
EN TANT QUE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.

DARIAN VA CONTINUER A SE DIRIGER VERS LE SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A VENDREDI
EN LIEN AVEC LA FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SUR SON BORD
OCCIDENTAL. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, IL DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN VIRAGE VERS LE
SUD-EST EN BORDURE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES EN APPROCHE PAR
L'OUEST : IL DEVRAIT A CETTE OCCASION PASSER LE 30EME PARALLELE. VERS
LE 2 JANVIER, IL POURRAIT PASSER A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE L'ILE
AMSTERDAM, POUVANT Y GENERER UN EPISODE DE COUP DE VENT.

DARIAN NE DISPOSE PLUS D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE FAVORABLE ET DEVRAIT
S'AFFAIBLIR LENTEMENT TOUT AU LONG DE CETTE SEMAINE. LE CISAILLEMENT
MOYEN ET PROFOND ETANT PREVU RESTER FAIBLE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24
A 30H, IL N'EST PAS EXCLU QUE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE REUSSISSE A SE
RESTRUCTURER A LA FAVEUR DU CYCLE DIURNE (NOTAMMENT LA NUIT
PROCHAINE). COMPTE TENU DE L'EVOLUTION RECENTE, L'EVOLUTION EN
POST-TROPICAL A ETE SIGNIFICATIVEMENT AVANCE COMPTE TENU QU'UNE
HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE POURRAIT SE METTRE EN
PLACE DES JEUDI SOIR. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, DARIAN DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA
PHASE DE TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 280649
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/4/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/28 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 77.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 555 SW: 425 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/28 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 535 SW: 380 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 95

24H: 2022/12/29 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 480 SW: 350 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 75

36H: 2022/12/29 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 470 SW: 345 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 75

48H: 2022/12/30 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 470 SW: 335 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 95

60H: 2022/12/30 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 470 SW: 335 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 215 NW: 110

72H: 2022/12/31 06 UTC: 31.2 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 390 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 120

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/01 06 UTC: 34.6 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 445 SW: 285 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 195 NW: 130

120H: 2023/01/02 06 UTC: 38.8 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 400 SW: 250 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SW: 130 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5- CI=3.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, DARIAN'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE LIKE A POST-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH WEAKENED AND
ASYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER WHICH APPEARS COMPLETELY
EXPOSED. THE VERTICAL SHEAR BEING WEAK, THIS STRUCTURE IS RELATED TO
THE LACK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL WHILE THE SYSTEM IS NOW EVOLVING ON
WATERS BELOW 26C AT THE SURFACE. THIS LACK OF FUEL HAS ALLOWED DRY
AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE (AROUND 400-300 HPA) TO GAIN OVER THE
CENTER THROUGH THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE (GIVING THE SYSTEM ITS SHEARED
APPEARANCE). THE PHASE ANALYSIS STILL CONFIRMS A SYMMETRICAL AND DEEP
WARM CORE. THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON THE TWO ASCAT PASSES B
AND C OF THIS MORNING (AROUND 0330Z-0430Z) WHICH SUGGEST THAT WINDS
AT 50 KT STILL EXIST IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE
SYSTEM REMAINS CLASSIFIED AS A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.

DARIAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY IN
CONNECTION WITH THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ON ITS WESTERN EDGE.
STARTING SATURDAY, IT SHOULD BEGIN A SOUTHEASTERLY TURN ALONG THE
EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST: IT SHOULD
PASS THE 30TH PARALLEL AT THIS TIME. AROUND JANUARY 2, IT COULD PASS
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF AMSTERDAM ISLAND, POSSIBLY GENERATING A
GALE EVENT THERE.

DARIAN NO LONGER HAS A FAVORABLE OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND SHOULD SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. AS THE MID AND DEEP SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEAK DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS, IT IS NOT EXCLUDED THAT
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MANAGES TO RESTRUCTURE ITSELF THANKS TO THE
DIURNAL CYCLE (ESPECIALLY DURING THE NEXT NIGHT). CONSIDERING THE
RECENT EVOLUTION, THE POST-TROPICAL EVOLUTION HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY
ADVANCED AS AN INCREASE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR COULD BE SET UP
FROM THURSDAY EVENING. FROM SATURDAY, DARIAN SHOULD START ITS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PHASE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 280632
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/12/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 28/12/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DARIAN) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 77.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 90
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 155 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/28 AT 18 UTC:
22.0 S / 74.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 290 NM SW: 205 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 50 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/29 AT 06 UTC:
23.6 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 260 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 280028
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/4/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 28/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.6 S / 79.0 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 1.5/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 595 SO: 480 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/12/2022 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 545 SO: 405 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SO: 270 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 55

24H: 29/12/2022 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 545 SO: 380 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 315 SO: 230 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 45

36H: 29/12/2022 12 UTC: 24.7 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 470 SO: 370 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 140 NO: 45

48H: 30/12/2022 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 480 SO: 360 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 45

60H: 30/12/2022 12 UTC: 28.7 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 500 SO: 370 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SO: 250 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 45

72H: 31/12/2022 00 UTC: 30.6 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 490 SO: 345 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SO: 230 NO: 120

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/01/2023 00 UTC: 33.5 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 415 SO: 345 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SO: 215 NO: 150

120H: 02/01/2023 00 UTC: 37.6 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 415 SO: 260 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SO: 140 NO: 75

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE DARIAN
A CONTINUER A NETTEMENT SE DEGRADER. LA PASSE MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 DE
1953Z MONTRE UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES EXPOSE EN DEHORS DE LA
CONVECTION PROFONDE, QUI EST DESORMAIS UNIQUEMENT PRESENTE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD. LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX ONT CONTINUE A SE RECHAUFFER, NE
DEPASSANT PLUS LES -55/-60C. LES ESTIMATIONS D'INTENSITE OBJECTIVES
(SATCON, ADT) SONT EN NETTE BAISSE, TOUT COMME L'ANALYSE DVORAK
SUBJECTIVE. L'INTENSITE EST ESTIMEE A 55KT, LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS
ETANT SITUES DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD DU SYSTEME.
DARIAN EST DONC RETROGRADE AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE, APRES
AVOIR ETE A UN STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL (OU PLUS) PENDANT 8.5 JOURS
DONT 6.5 JOURS DANS LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN, SOIT UNE DUREE DE
VIE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL PARMI LES PLUS LONGUES REPERTORIEES
SUR NOTRE BASSIN.

DARIAN VA CONTINUER A SE DIRIGER VERS LE SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A VENDREDI
EN LIEN AVEC LA FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SUR SON BORD
OCCIDENTAL. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, IL DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN VIRAGE VERS LE
SUD-EST EN BORDURE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES EN APPROCHE PAR
L'OUEST : IL DEVRAIT A CETTE OCCASION PASSER LE 30EME PARALLELE. VERS
LE 2 JANVIER, IL POURRAIT PASSER A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE L'ILE
AMSTERDAM, PROBABLEMENT POUVANT Y GENERER DU COUP DE VENT.

DARIAN NE DISPOSE PLUS D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE FAVORABLE ET DEVRAIT
S'AFFAIBLIR LENTEMENT TOUT AU LONG DE CETTE SEMAINE, NOTAMMENT EN FIN
DE SEMAINE QUAND LE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST DEVIENDRA PLUS FORT A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG APPROCHANT PAR
L'OUEST FINISSANT PAR INJECTER DE L'AIR SEC AU DESSUS DU COEUR CHAUD
DU SYSTEME. AINSI, A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, DARIAN DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA
PHASE DE TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 280028
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/4/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/28 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 79.0 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 1.5/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 595 SW: 480 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/28 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 545 SW: 405 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 55

24H: 2022/12/29 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 545 SW: 380 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 45

36H: 2022/12/29 12 UTC: 24.7 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 470 SW: 370 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 45

48H: 2022/12/30 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 480 SW: 360 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 150 NW: 45

60H: 2022/12/30 12 UTC: 28.7 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 500 SW: 370 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 250 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 150 NW: 45

72H: 2022/12/31 00 UTC: 30.6 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 490 SW: 345 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 120

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/01/01 00 UTC: 33.5 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 415 SW: 345 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 215 NW: 150

120H: 2023/01/02 00 UTC: 37.6 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 415 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SW: 140 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=4.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, DARIAN'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
DETERIORATE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 1953Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AREA, WHICH
IS NOW ONLY PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. CLOUD TOPS HAVE
CONTINUED TO WARM UP, NO LONGER EXCEEDING -55/-60C. OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES (SATCON, ADT) ARE CLEARLY DOWN, AS WELL AS THE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS. THE INTENSITY IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 55KT,
THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM.
DARIAN IS THUS BACK DOWN TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE, AFTER HAVING
BEEN AT A STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (OR MORE) FOR 8.5 DAYS INCLUDING
6.5 DAYS IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN, A LIFETIME AT THE STAGE
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE AMONG THE LONGEST RECORDED IN OUR BASIN.

DARIAN WILL CONTINUE HEADING SOUTHWESTWARDS UNTIL FRIDAY TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FROM SATURDAY,
DARIAN SHOULD START A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH : IT SHOULD THEN PASS SOUTH OF THE 30TH
PARALLEL. NEAR JANUARY 2ND, IT COULD TRACK CLOSE TO AMSTERDAM ISLAND,
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH GALE FORCE WINDS.

DARIAN HAS NO LONGER FAVORABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND SHOULD KEEP
SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WHEN THE NORTHWESTERLY MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR WILL BECOME
STRONGER AHEAD OF A UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, WHICH
WILL FINALLY BRING DRY AIR OVER THE SYSTEM'S WARM CORE. THUS, FROM
SATURDAY, DARIAN SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 280012
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/12/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 28/12/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DARIAN) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 79.0 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 260 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 320 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/28 AT 12 UTC:
21.2 S / 76.1 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 295 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/29 AT 00 UTC:
22.8 S / 73.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 295 NM SW: 205 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 271824
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/4/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 27/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.8 S / 80.6 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 974 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 595 SO: 535 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SO: 295 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/12/2022 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 575 SO: 425 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 325 SO: 285 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 65

24H: 28/12/2022 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 565 SO: 405 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 325 SO: 260 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 45

36H: 29/12/2022 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 500 SO: 415 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SO: 230 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 110 NO: 45

48H: 29/12/2022 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 490 SO: 370 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 230 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 120 NO: 45

60H: 30/12/2022 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 490 SO: 370 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SO: 250 NO: 110

72H: 30/12/2022 18 UTC: 29.5 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 500 SO: 380 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SO: 240 NO: 130

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/12/2022 18 UTC: 32.9 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 325 SO: 315 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 120 NO: 95

120H: 01/01/2023 18 UTC: 36.2 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SO: 155 NO: 85

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0- CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LE CDO DE DARIAN A CONTINUE A SE
RECHAUFFER ET LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES SE SITUE SOUS LA BORDURE
NORD-OUEST DE LA ZONE CONVECTIVE SOUS L'EFFET DE L'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE ET D'UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-NORD-OUEST.
L'ANALYSE DVORAK EST BASEE SUR LE MET AJUSTE PAR LE PT. L'INTENSITE
QUI AVAIT ETE ESTIMEE A 12UTC (70KT) A ETE CONFIRMEE PAR UNE PASSE
SMAP DE 1228Z INDIQUANT DES VENTS DE 69KT ET MONTRANT AUSSI QUE LES
VENTS DE PLUS DE 64KT SONT LIMITES AU DEMI-CERCLE SUD, CE QUI EST
COHERENT AVEC LES SIMULATIONS NUMERIQUES ET A ETE PRIS EN COMPTE DANS
LES EXTENSIONS DE VENTS MISES A JOUR A 18UTC. L'INTENSITE EST ESTIMEE
A 18UTC EST DE 65KT.

DARIAN VA CONTINUER A SE DIRIGER VERS LE SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A VENDREDI
EN LIEN AVEC LA FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SUR SON BORD
OCCIDENTAL. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, IL DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN NOUVEAU VIRAGE
VERS LE SUD-EST EN BORDURE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES EN
APPROCHE PAR L'OUEST : IL DEVRAIT A CETTE OCCASION PASSER LE 30EME
PARALLELE.

DARIAN NE DISPOSE PLUS D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE FAVORABLE ET DEVRAIT
S'AFFAIBLIR GRADUELLEMENT TOUT AU LONG DE CETTE SEMAINE, NOTAMMENT EN
FIN DE SEMAINE / DEBUT DE WEEK-END OU LE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST DEVIENDRA PLUS FORT A L'AVANT D'UN
TALWEG CIRCULANT PAR L'OUEST FINISSANT PAR INJECTER DE L'AIR SEC AU
DESSUS DU COEUR CHAUD DU SYSTEME. AINSI, A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, DARIAN
DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA PHASE DE TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 271824
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/4/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/27 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 80.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 595 SW: 535 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/28 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 575 SW: 425 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 325 SW: 285 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 65

24H: 2022/12/28 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 565 SW: 405 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 325 SW: 260 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 45

36H: 2022/12/29 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 500 SW: 415 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 230 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 110 NW: 45

48H: 2022/12/29 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 490 SW: 370 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 230 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 45

60H: 2022/12/30 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 490 SW: 370 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 110

72H: 2022/12/30 18 UTC: 29.5 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 500 SW: 380 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SW: 240 NW: 130

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/12/31 18 UTC: 32.9 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 325 SW: 315 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 120 NW: 95

120H: 2023/01/01 18 UTC: 36.2 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 155 NW: 85

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0- CI=4.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, DARIAN'S CDO HAS KEPT WARMING UP AND THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CDO DUE TO
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. DVORAK
ANALYSIS IS BASED ON THE MET ADJUSTED BY THE PT. THE PREVIOUS 12UTC
INTENSITY ESTIMATE (70KT) HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY A SMAP PASS AT 1228Z
DISPLAYING 69KT MAX WINDS AND ALSO SHOWING THAT WINDS EXCEEDING 64KT
ARE ONLY PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
NWP SIMULATIONS AND HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE 18UTC UPDATED WIND
EXTENSIONS. THE SYSTEM'S ESTIMATED INTENSITY AT 18UTC IS 65KT.

DARIAN WILL CONTINUE HEADING SOUTHWESTWARDS UNTIL FRIDAY IN
CONNECTION WITH THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ON ITS WESTERN
EDGE. FROM SATURDAY, DARIAN SHOULD START A NEW SOUTHEASTWARD TURN,
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH : IT SHOULD THEN
PASS SOUTH OF THE 30TH PARALLEL.

DARIAN HAS NO LONGER FAVORABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WHEN THE NORTHWESTERLY MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR WILL BECOME
STRONGER AHEAD OF A UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, WHICH
WILL FINALLY BRING DRY AIR OVER THE SYSTEM'S WARM CORE. THUS, FROM
SATURDAY, DARIAN SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 271809
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/12/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 27/12/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN) 974 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 80.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 290 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 320 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/28 AT 06 UTC:
20.5 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 310 NM SW: 230 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/28 AT 18 UTC:
22.1 S / 75.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 305 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 271221
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/4/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 27/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.3 S / 82.2 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 969 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 630 SO: 595 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 350 SO: 350 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/12/2022 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 595 SO: 445 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 335 SO: 280 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 28/12/2022 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 545 SO: 445 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SO: 285 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 45

36H: 29/12/2022 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 535 SO: 405 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 315 SO: 270 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 140 NO: 45

48H: 29/12/2022 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 500 SO: 405 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 250 NO: 100

60H: 30/12/2022 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 490 SO: 415 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SO: 260 NO: 110

72H: 30/12/2022 12 UTC: 28.8 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 520 SO: 425 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SO: 270 NO: 140

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/12/2022 12 UTC: 32.6 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 415 SO: 325 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SO: 195 NO: 85

120H: 01/01/2023 12 UTC: 35.8 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 345 SO: 230 NO: 185

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T= 4.5- CI=4.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LE SYSTEME A MONTRE DE NETS SIGNES
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT, AVEC LA DISPARITION DE L'OEIL, UN RECHAUFFEMENT DU
CDO, PUIS LA DETERIORATION DE LA CONVECTION DANS LE DEMI-CERLE
NORD-OUEST, RA SULTAT D'UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC VERS 400HPA. CECI EST
CONFIRME PAR LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES PARTIELLE DE LA PASS SSMIS DE
1020UTC.

DARIAN SE DIRIGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST ET VA CONTINUER AINSI
JUSQU'A VENDREDI EN LIEN AVEC LA FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
SUR SON BORD OCCIDENTAL. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, DARIAN DEVRAIT ENTAMER
UN NOUVEAU VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST TOUT EN RALENTISSANT. RATTRAPE PAR
UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES, IL DEVRAIT A CETTE OCCASION PASSER
LE 30 EME PARALLELE POUR GAGNER DAVANTAGE LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES.

DARIAN NE DISPOSE PLUS D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE FAVORABLE ET DEVRAIT
S'AFFAIBLIR GRADUELLEMENT TOUT AU LONG DE CETTE SEMAINE, NOTAMMENT EN
FIN DE SEMAINE / DEBUT DE WEEK-END OU LE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST DEVIENDRA FORT A L'AVANT D'UN
TALWEG CIRCULANT PAR L'OUEST FINISSANT PAR INJECTER DE L'AIR SEC AU
DESSUS DU COEUR CHAUD DU SYSTEME. AINSI, A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, DARIAN
DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA PHASE DE TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 271221
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/4/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 82.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 969 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 630 SW: 595 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 350 SW: 350 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/28 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 595 SW: 445 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2022/12/28 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 545 SW: 445 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 45

36H: 2022/12/29 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 535 SW: 405 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 45

48H: 2022/12/29 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 500 SW: 405 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 100

60H: 2022/12/30 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 490 SW: 415 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 110

72H: 2022/12/30 12 UTC: 28.8 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 520 SW: 425 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 140

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/12/31 12 UTC: 32.6 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 415 SW: 325 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 85

120H: 2023/01/01 12 UTC: 35.8 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 345 SW: 230 NW: 185

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T= 4.5- CI=4.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN CLEAR SIGNS OF
WEAKENING, WITH THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE EYE, A WARMING OF THE CDO,
THEN THE DETERIORATION OF THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE, AS A RESULT OF AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR AROUND 400HPA.
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE PARTIAL MICROWAVE DATA OF THE SSMIS PASS OF
1020UTC.

DARIAN IS HEADING SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL
FRIDAY IN CONNECTION WITH THE WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ON
ITS WESTERN EDGE. FROM SATURDAY, DARIAN SHOULD START A NEW TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE SLOWING DOWN. CAUGHT BY A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH, IT SHOULD PASS THE 30 TH PARALLEL TO REACH THE SOUTHERN
LATITUDES.

DARIAN HAS NO LONGER FAVORABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF THE
WEEK/BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WHEN THE NORTHWESTERLY MID-TROPOSPHERE
SHEAR WILL BECOME STRONG AHEAD OF A UPPER TROUGH RUNNING FROM THE
WEST, EVENTUALLY INJECTING DRY AIR OVER THE WARM CORE OF THE SYSTEM.
THUS, FROM SATURDAY, DARIAN SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
PHASE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 271210
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/12/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 27/12/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN) 969 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 82.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 180
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 320 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 340 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/28 AT 00 UTC:
20.0 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 320 NM SW: 240 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/28 AT 12 UTC:
21.4 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 295 NM SW: 240 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 270630
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/4/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 27/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.0 S / 83.0 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 964 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 610 SO: 575 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 160 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/12/2022 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 575 SO: 445 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SO: 260 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

24H: 28/12/2022 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 595 SO: 425 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 325 SO: 270 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 65

36H: 28/12/2022 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 545 SO: 415 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SO: 260 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 45

48H: 29/12/2022 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 500 SO: 400 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SO: 215 NO: 85

60H: 29/12/2022 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 490 SO: 390 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 215 NO: 110

72H: 30/12/2022 06 UTC: 28.0 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 520 SO: 405 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 315 SO: 250 NO: 120

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/12/2022 06 UTC: 31.7 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 390 SO: 360 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SO: 185 NO: 100

120H: 01/01/2023 06 UTC: 35.3 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 380 SO: 285 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 140 NO: 110

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T= 4.5+ CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'AMELIORATION DE LA CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE DE DARIAN S'EST CONFIRMEE EN DEBUT DE PERIODE, AVEC LA
POURSUITE DU REFROIDISSEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL ET UN OEIL CHAUD ET
BIEN CIRCULAIRE. LES TOUTES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES MONTRENT NA
ANMOINS UN OEIL QUI DEVIENT PLUS ALLONGE.
CELA PEUT S'EXPLIQUER PAR L'EFFET COMBINE DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
CISSILLEMENT VERTICAL, ET LE MAINTIEN D'UN TRES BON CANAL
D'EVACUATION DANS LA QUADRANT SUD-EST.

DARIAN SE DIRIGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST ET VA CONTINUER AINSI
JUSQU'A VENDREDI EN LIEN AVEC LA FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
SUR SON BORD OCCIDENTAL. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, DARIAN DEVRAIT ENTAMER
UN NOUVEAU VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST TOUT EN RALENTISSANT. RATTRAPE PAR
UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES, IL DEVRAIT A CETTE OCCASION PASSER
LE 30 EME PARALLELE POUR GAGNER DAVANTAGE LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES.

DARIAN NE DISPOSERA PLUS DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE QUI A FAIT SES BEAUX
JOURS ET DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR GRADUELLEMENT TOUT AU LONG DE CETTE
SEMAINE, NOTAMMENT EN FIN DE SEMAINE / DEBUT DE WEEK-END OU LE
CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST DEVIENDRA
FORT A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG CIRCULANT PAR L'OUEST FINISSANT PAR
INJECTER DE L'AIR SEC AU DESSUS DU COEUR CHAUD DU SYSTEME. AINSI, A
PARTIR DE SAMEDI, DARIAN DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA PHASE DE TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICALE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 270630
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/4/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/27 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 83.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 610 SW: 575 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 160 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/27 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 575 SW: 445 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2022/12/28 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 595 SW: 425 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 65

36H: 2022/12/28 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 545 SW: 415 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 45

48H: 2022/12/29 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 500 SW: 400 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 85

60H: 2022/12/29 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 490 SW: 390 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 110

72H: 2022/12/30 06 UTC: 28.0 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 520 SW: 405 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 315 SW: 250 NW: 120

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/12/31 06 UTC: 31.7 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 390 SW: 360 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 100

120H: 2023/01/01 06 UTC: 35.3 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 380 SW: 285 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 140 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T= 4.5+ CI=5.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE DARIAN CLOUD
CONFIGURATION HAS BEEN CONFIRMED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, WITH
THE CONTINUATION OF THE COOLING OF THE EYE WALL AND A WARM AND WELL
CIRCULAR EYE. THE LAST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW NEVERTHELESS AN EYE
WHICH BECOMES MORE ELONGATED.
THIS CAN BE EXPLAINED BY THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THE WEAKENING OF THE
VERTICAL CRACKING, AND THE MAINTENANCE OF A VERY GOOD EVACUATION
CHANNEL IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.

DARIAN IS HEADING SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL
FRIDAY IN CONNECTION WITH THE WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ON
ITS WESTERN EDGE. FROM SATURDAY, DARIAN SHOULD START A NEW TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE SLOWING DOWN. CAUGHT BY A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH, IT SHOULD PASS THE 30 TH PARALLEL TO REACH THE SOUTHERN
LATITUDES.

DARIAN WILL NO LONGER HAVE THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT THAT MADE ITS
GOOD DAYS AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK,
ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK/BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WHEN THE
NORTHWESTERLY MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR WILL BECOME STRONG AHEAD OF A
UPPER TROUGH RUNNING FROM THE WEST, EVENTUALLY INJECTING DRY AIR OVER
THE WARM CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THUS, FROM SATURDAY, DARIAN SHOULD BEGIN
ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PHASE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 270616
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/12/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 27/12/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN) 964 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 83.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 105 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 175
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 310 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 330 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/27 AT 18 UTC:
19.2 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 310 NM SW: 240 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/28 AT 06 UTC:
20.7 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 320 NM SW: 230 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 270045
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/4/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 27/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.5 S / 83.6 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 959 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 665 SO: 665 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 160 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/12/2022 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 565 SO: 500 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

24H: 28/12/2022 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 595 SO: 470 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

36H: 28/12/2022 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 535 SO: 445 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SO: 250 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 75

48H: 29/12/2022 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 565 SO: 435 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SO: 240 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 140 NO: 45

60H: 29/12/2022 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 490 SO: 390 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 215 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 140 NO: 45

72H: 30/12/2022 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 520 SO: 415 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/12/2022 00 UTC: 30.8 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 470 SO: 390 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SO: 230 NO: 140

120H: 01/01/2023 00 UTC: 33.7 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 370 SO: 250 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SO: 140 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T= 4.5 CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE DARIAN
S'EST LEGEREMENT AMELIOREE, AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI SE SONT
REFROIDIS AUTOUR DU MUR DE L'OEIL. CELA PEUT S'EXPLIQUER NON
SEULEMENT PAR LA RELACHE DE LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE SECTEUR NORD,
ESTIMEE SELON LES DONNEES DU CIMSS ENTRE 8 ET 10KT, MAIS AUSSI DU
MAINTIEN D'UN TRES BON CANAL D'EVACUATION DANS LA QUADRANT SUD-EST.
POUR AUTANT L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DE DVORAK S'EST MAINTENUE CETTE
NUIT, AVEC UN DT MOYENNE SUR 3H DE L'ORDRE DE 4.5. PAR INERTIE MAIS
AUSSI SELON UN CONSENSUS GENERAL DES DONNEES OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES,
L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 85 KT.

DARIAN SE DIRIGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST ET VA CONTINUER AINSI
JUSQU'A VENDREDI EN LIEN AVEC LA FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
SUR SON BORD OCCIDENTAL. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, DARIAN DEVRAIT ENTAMER
UN NOUVEAU VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST TOUT EN RALENTISSANT. RATTRAPE PAR
UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES, IL DEVRAIT A CETTE OCCASION PASSER
LE 30 EME PARALLELE POUR GAGNER DAVANTAGE LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES.

DARIAN NE DISPOSERA PLUS DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE QUI A FAIT SES BEAUX
JOURS ET DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR GRADUELLEMENT TOUT AU LONG DE CETTE
SEMAINE, NOTAMMENT EN FIN DE SEMAINE / DEBUT DE WEEK-END OU LE
CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST DEVIENDRA
FORT A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG CIRCULANT PAR L'OUEST FINISSANT PAR
INJECTER DE L'AIR SEC AU DESSUS DU COEUR CHAUD DU SYSTEME. AINSI, A
PARTIR DE SAMEDI, DARIAN DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA PHASE DE TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICALE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 270045
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/4/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/27 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 83.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 959 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 665 SW: 665 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 160 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/27 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 565 SW: 500 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2022/12/28 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 595 SW: 470 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

36H: 2022/12/28 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 535 SW: 445 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 75

48H: 2022/12/29 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 565 SW: 435 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 140 NW: 45

60H: 2022/12/29 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 490 SW: 390 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 45

72H: 2022/12/30 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 520 SW: 415 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 150 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/12/31 00 UTC: 30.8 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 470 SW: 390 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 230 NW: 140

120H: 2023/01/01 00 UTC: 33.7 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 370 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 140 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T= 4.5 CI=5.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DARIAN CLOUD PATTERN HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED,
WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING AROUND THE EYEWALL. THIS CAN BE EXPLAINED NOT
ONLY BY THE RELEASE OF THE NORTHEASTERLY BULK WINDSHEAR , ESTIMATED
ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS DATA BETWEEN 8 AND 10KT, BUT ALSO BY THE
MAINTENANCE OF A VERY GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. FOR ALL
THAT, THE SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF DVORAK HAS BEEN MAINTAINED
OVERNIGHT, WITH A DT AVERAGED OVER 3 HOURS OF ABOUT 4.5. BY INERTIA
BUT ALSO ACCORDING TO A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE
DATA, THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 85 KT.

DARIAN IS HEADING SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL
FRIDAY IN CONNECTION WITH THE WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ON
ITS WESTERN EDGE. FROM SATURDAY, DARIAN SHOULD START A NEW TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE SLOWING DOWN. CAUGHT BY A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH, IT SHOULD PASS THE 30 TH PARALLEL TO REACH THE SOUTHERN
LATITUDES.

DARIAN WILL NO LONGER HAVE THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT THAT MADE ITS
GOOD DAYS AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK,
ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK/BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WHEN THE
NORTHWESTERLY MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR WILL BECOME STRONG AHEAD OF A
UPPER TROUGH RUNNING FROM THE WEST, EVENTUALLY INJECTING DRY AIR OVER
THE WARM CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THUS, FROM SATURDAY, DARIAN SHOULD BEGIN
ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PHASE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 270033
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/12/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 27/12/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN) 959 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 83.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 160
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 360 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/27 AT 12 UTC:
18.8 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 305 NM SW: 270 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/28 AT 00 UTC:
20.2 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 320 NM SW: 255 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 261834
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/4/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 26/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.1 S / 84.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 961 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 445 SO: 405 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 260 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 160 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/12/2022 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 530 SO: 435 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SO: 280 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

24H: 27/12/2022 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 545 SO: 425 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SO: 270 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

36H: 28/12/2022 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 520 SO: 400 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 250 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 65

48H: 28/12/2022 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 490 SO: 380 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SO: 240 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 140 NO: 45

60H: 29/12/2022 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 470 SO: 350 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 140 NO: 45

72H: 29/12/2022 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 465 SO: 335 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/12/2022 18 UTC: 29.3 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 470 SO: 370 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SO: 250 NO: 130

120H: 31/12/2022 18 UTC: 33.3 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 415 SO: 250 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 285 SO: 220 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T= 4.5 CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE DARIAN
S'EST CONSIDERABLEMENT RECHAUFFEE, AVEC TOUTEFOIS LA PERSISTANCE D'UN
OEIL BIEN VISIBLE A L'IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE. CELA EST SANS DOUTE DU AU
PASSAGE DU SYSTEME SUR DES EAUX DE SURFACE NETTEMENT PLUS FROIDES, A
MESURE QU'IL PROGRESSE EN DIRECTION DU SUD ET CE MALGRE UNE
EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. ON NOTERA
EGALEMENT QUE LE SYSTEME SUBIT UNE CONTRAINTE MODEREE DE SECTEUR
EST-NORD-EST SELON LES DERNIERES DONNEES DU CIMSS. CE FAIT EST
CORROBORE PAR LA PASSE GPM DE 1722Z QUI MONTRE UN ANNEAU CONVECTIF
ERRODE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST, CE QUI N'ETAIT PAS SUGGERE PAR LA
PASSE DE LA SSMIS DE 1239Z. L'ANALYSE D'INTENSITA SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
MONTRE UN DT MOYENNE SUR 3H DE 4.5 EN BAISSE REGULIERE DEPUIS 12Z.
LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES (ADT, AIDT, SATCON) SONT EGALEMENT EN
DIMINUTION REGULIERE DEPUIS CET APRES MIDI.

DARIAN CONFIRME BIEN SON VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST ET VA CONTINUER
AINSI A SE DEPLACER VERS LE SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A JEUDI / VENDREDI EN
LIEN AVEC LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. A PARTIR DE
SAMEDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ELOIGNER AU SUD DE 30S AVEC UNE
TRAJECTOIRE TOURNANT VERS LE SUD PUIS SUD-EST EN SE FAISANT
PROGRESSIVEMENT ATTIRER PAR UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT CONSTATE DE DARIAN CES DERNIERES HEURES S'EXPLIQUE
PAR LA RENCONTRE D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN FORTE BAISSE, ET DANS
UNE MOINDRE MESURE, LE CISAILLEMENT MODERE D'EST-NORD-EST EN VIGUEUR
ACTUELLEMENT. NEANMOINS, A PARTIR DE DEMAIN MARDI, LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIENT RESTER MEDIOCRE ET SE POURSUIVRE
CONDUISANTA L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DURABLE DU SYSTEME TOUT AU LONG DE LA
SEMAINE. SAMEDI, EN PASSANT AU SUD DE 30S, DARIAN DEVRAIT DEMARRER SA
TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE, QUI
INJECTERA PROGRESSIVEMENT DE L'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 261834
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/4/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/26 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 84.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 961 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 445 SW: 405 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 260 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 160 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/27 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 530 SW: 435 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2022/12/27 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 545 SW: 425 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

36H: 2022/12/28 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 520 SW: 400 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 65

48H: 2022/12/28 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 490 SW: 380 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 45

60H: 2022/12/29 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 470 SW: 350 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 140 NW: 45

72H: 2022/12/29 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 465 SW: 335 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 150 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/12/30 18 UTC: 29.3 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 470 SW: 370 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 130

120H: 2022/12/31 18 UTC: 33.3 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 415 SW: 250 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 285 SW: 220 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T= 4.5 CI=5.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DARIAN'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS WARMED UP
CONSIDERABLY, WITH HOWEVER THE PERSISTENCE OF A WELL VISIBLE EYE IN
THE CLASSICAL IMAGERY. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE
SYSTEM OVER MUCH COLDER SST, AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD, DESPITE AN
EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. IT SHOULD ALSO
BE NOTED THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WSH
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CIMSS DATA. THIS FACT IS CORROBORATED BY THE
1722Z GPM SWATH WHICH SHOWS AN ERODED CONVECTIVE RING IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT, WHICH WAS NOT SUGGESTED BY THE 1239Z SSMIS PASS.
THE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AVERAGE DT OVER 3H
OF 4.5 DECREASING REGULARLY SINCE 12Z. THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES (ADT,
AIDT, SATCON) ARE ALSO DECREASING REGULARLY SINCE THIS AFTERNOON.

DARIAN CONFIRMS ITS SOUTH-WESTERN TURN AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH-WESTWARD UNTIL THURSDAY / FRIDAY IN CONNECTION WITH THE
SWELLING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FROM SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE AWAY TO THE SOUTH OF 30S WITH A TRACK TURNING TO THE SOUTH THEN
SOUTHEAST WHILE BEING GRADUALLY ATTRACTED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

THE WEAKENING OF DARIAN IN THE LAST FEW HOURS IS EXPLAINED BY THE
ENCOUNTER WITH A STRONGLY DECREASING OHC, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT, THE
MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS, FROM TOMORROW,
TUESDAY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND CONTINUE
LEADING TO THE LASTING WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
ON SATURDAY, AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF 30S, DARIAN SHOULD BEGIN ITS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY INJECT DRY AIR INTO THE MID-TROPOSPHERE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 261808
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/12/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 26/12/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN) 961 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 84.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 160
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/27 AT 06 UTC:
18.1 S / 82.5 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 285 NM SW: 235 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/27 AT 18 UTC:
19.3 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 295 NM SW: 230 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 261230
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/4/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 26/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8 S / 84.8 E
(SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 445 SO: 405 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 260 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 160 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/12/2022 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 530 SO: 465 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SO: 270 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

24H: 27/12/2022 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 510 SO: 435 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SO: 280 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

36H: 28/12/2022 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 530 SO: 415 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 250 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 28/12/2022 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 480 SO: 400 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 140 NO: 45

60H: 29/12/2022 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 470 SO: 380 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 140 NO: 45

72H: 29/12/2022 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 415 SO: 350 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 140 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/12/2022 12 UTC: 28.5 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 455 SO: 345 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 140

120H: 31/12/2022 12 UTC: 32.7 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 405 SO: 280 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 215 NO: 130

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5 CI=6.0

DEPUIS 06UTC, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE DARIAN A CONTINUE A
S'AMELIORER JUSQU'A 10UTC ENVIRON, AVEC UN OEIL BIEN SYMETRIQUE
ENTOURE D'UN SOLIDE ANNEAU DE CONVECTION, COMME LE MONTRENT LES
DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (AMSR2 0817Z, SSMIS-F18 1025Z). LE DT
MOYENNE SUR 3H A ALORS ATTEINT 6.0 ENTRE 09 ET 10UTC. TOUTEFOIS, AU
COURS DES 2 DERNIERES HEURES LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX ONT COMMENCE A SE
RECHAUFFER, FAISANT BAISSER LE DT MOYEN SUR 3H VERS 5.5 A 12UTC. ON
ESTIME DONC QUE LE SYSTEME A PROBABLEMENT ATTEINT UN PIC D'INTENSITE
A 100KT VERS 09UTC, HEURE PRISE COMME REFERENCE POUR LE CI A 6.0. CE
PIC D'INTENSITE EST EN ASSEZ BON ACCORD AVEC L'ESTIMATION DU SATCON.

DARIAN A AMORCE SON VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST ET VA CONTINUER A SE
DEPLACER VERS LE SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A VENDREDI EN LIEN AVEC LE
GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT S'ELOIGNER AU SUD DE 30S AVEC UNE TRAJECTOIRE TOURNANT VERS
LE SUD PUIS SUD-EST EN SE FAISANT PROGRESSIVEMENT ATTIRER PAR UN
TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

LE PIC D'INTENSITE DE CE LUNDI A ETE FAVORISE PAR UNE BAISSE DU
CISAILLEMENT, UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE (CANAL D'EVACUATION
COTE SUD-EST) ET DES EAUX DE SURFACE ENCORE SUFFISAMMENT CHAUDES.
NEANMOINS, A PARTIR DE MARDI, LA BAISSE IMPORTANTE DU POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE (SYSTEME GAGNANT DES EAUX PLUS FROIDES INFERIEURES A 26C)
ET UN LEGER RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD DEVRAIENT
CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DURABLE TOUT AU LONG DE LA SEMAINE.
SAMEDI, EN PASSANT AU SUD DE 30S, DARIAN DEVRAIT DEMARRER SA
TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 261230
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/4/20222023
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/26 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 84.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 445 SW: 405 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 260 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 160 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/27 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 530 SW: 465 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2022/12/27 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 510 SW: 435 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

36H: 2022/12/28 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 530 SW: 415 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2022/12/28 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 480 SW: 400 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 45

60H: 2022/12/29 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 470 SW: 380 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 45

72H: 2022/12/29 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 415 SW: 350 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/12/30 12 UTC: 28.5 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 455 SW: 345 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 140

120H: 2022/12/31 12 UTC: 32.7 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 405 SW: 280 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 130

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5 CI=6.0

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, DARIAN'S EYE PATTERN HAS KEPT IMPROVING
UNTIL 10UTC, WITH A VERY SYMMETRICAL EYE SURROUNDED BY A STRONG
CONVECTIVE RING, AS SHOWN BY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY (AMSR2 0817Z,
SSMIS-F18 1025Z). DT AVERAGED OVER 3H THEN REACHED 6.0 BETWEEN 09 AND
10UTC. HOWEVER, IN THE FOLLOWING HOURS, CLOUD TOPS BEGAN WARMING UP,
WHICH MAKES THE DT DROPPING TO 5.5 AT 12UTC. WE THUS ESTIMATE AN
INTENSITY PEAK NEAR 100KT AT 09UTC, MOMENT USED HERE AS REFERENCE FOR
THE CI OF 6.0. THIS PEAK INTENSITY ALSO FITS QUITE WELL WITH THE
SATCON ESTIMATE.

DARIAN HAS STARTED ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AND WILL THEN KEEP
FOLLOWING THIS DIRECTION IN THE COMING DAYS, DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS NOW TAKING HOLD OF THE STEERING
FLOW. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF 30S AND
TURN TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST WHILE BEING ATTRACTED BY A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

TODAY'S TEMPORARY INTENSITY PEAK WAS ENABLED BY LOWER WIND SHEAR,
GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE (OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM) AND STILL WARM SURFACE WATERS. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS,
DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL (SST DROPPING BELOW 26C) AND ALSO
SLIGHTLY INCREASING NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR, SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY
WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. ON SATURDAY, WHILE TRACKING SOUTH OF
30S, DARIAN SHOULD START ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 261221
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/12/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 26/12/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 84.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 160
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/27 AT 00 UTC:
17.5 S / 83.6 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 285 NM SW: 250 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/27 AT 12 UTC:
18.6 S / 81.6 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 275 NM SW: 235 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 260636
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/4/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 26/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.7 S / 85.0 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 954 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 21

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 445 SO: 405 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 260 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 160 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/12/2022 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 425 SO: 360 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 27/12/2022 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 445 SO: 380 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SO: 230 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 27/12/2022 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 455 SO: 400 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SO: 240 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 28/12/2022 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 470 SO: 415 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 250 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 85

60H: 28/12/2022 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 490 SO: 425 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SO: 260 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 95

72H: 29/12/2022 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 500 SO: 445 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SO: 270 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/12/2022 06 UTC: 27.7 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 535 SO: 480 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SO: 285 NO: 155

120H: 31/12/2022 06 UTC: 31.6 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 565 SO: 510 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SO: 315 NO: 165

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE DARIAN
S'EST AMELIOREE. L'INTENSITE EST REHAUSSEE A 90KT EN COHERENCE AVEC
UNE ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE DONNANT UN DT A 5.5, MAIS TOUT EN
RESTANT LEGEREMENT SOUS L'ESTIMATION SATCON.

DARIAN A RALENTI SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD ET AMORCE UN VIRAGE VERS
LE SUD-OUEST EN LIEN AVEC LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE.
SON MOUVEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST VA ENSUITE S'ACCELERER A PARTIR DE
DEMAIN. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ELOIGNER AU SUD DE
30S EN SE FAISANT PROGRESSIVEMENT ATTIRER PAR UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE TOURNANT VERS LE SUD PUIS SUD-EST.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SE SONT LEGEREMENT AMELIOREES DEPUIS
LA NUIT DERNIERE AVEC LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT. BENEFICIANT ENCORE
D'EAUX ASSEZ CHAUDES AUJOURD'HUI, DARIAN POURRAIT AINSI RESTER AU
STADE OU PROCHE DU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE CE LUNDI. A
PARTIR DE DEMAIN MARDI, LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
NORD ET LA BAISSE IMPORTANTE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE (EAUX FROIDES
INFERIEURES A 26C) DEVRAIENT CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
SIGNIFICATIF. SAMEDI, EN PASSANT AU SUD DE 30S, DARIAN DEVRAIT
DEMARRER SON EXTRATROPICALISATION A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET
DEVENIR POST-TROPICAL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 260636
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/4/20222023
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 85.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 954 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 21

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 445 SW: 405 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 260 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 160 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/26 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 425 SW: 360 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2022/12/27 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 445 SW: 380 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 230 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2022/12/27 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 455 SW: 400 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 240 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2022/12/28 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 470 SW: 415 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 85

60H: 2022/12/28 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 490 SW: 425 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 260 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 95

72H: 2022/12/29 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 500 SW: 445 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 270 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/12/30 06 UTC: 27.7 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 535 SW: 480 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 285 NW: 155

120H: 2022/12/31 06 UTC: 31.6 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 565 SW: 510 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 315 NW: 165

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, DARIAN'S EYE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED. THE
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90KT MAINLY BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS GIVING A DT UP TO 5.5, THUS REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
SATCON ESTIMATE.

DARIAN HAS SLOWED ITS SOUTHWARD MOTION AND IS NOW ABOUT TO TURN
SOUTHWESTWARDS DUE TO A NEWLY BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY START TO TAKE HOLD OF THE STEERING FLOW. ITS SOUTHWESTERLY
MOTION WILL THEN ACCELERATE STARTING TOMORROW. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF 30S WHILE BEING ATTRACTED BY A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ON A TRACK TURNING SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY SINCE LAST NIGHT
THANKS TO DECREASING WIND SHEAR. WHILE STILL OVER QUITE WARM SST
TODAY, DARIAN COULD THUS REMAIN AT OR NEAR INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE THIS MONDAY. FROM TOMORROW TUESDAY, STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY
SHEAR AND DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL (SST DROPPING BELOW 26C)
SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING. ON SATURDAY, WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF
30S, DARIAN SHOULD START ITS EXTRATROPICALIZATION AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH AND THUS BECOME POST-TROPICAL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 260622
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/12/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 26/12/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN) 954 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 85.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 160
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/26 AT 18 UTC:
17.3 S / 84.3 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 230 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/27 AT 06 UTC:
18.0 S / 82.7 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 240 NM SW: 205 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 260049
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/4/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 26/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.6 S / 85.1 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 21 MN

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 455 SO: 415 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/12/2022 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 84.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 465 SO: 435 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 27/12/2022 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 510 SO: 465 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 270 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 27/12/2022 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 490 SO: 435 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SO: 260 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 28/12/2022 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 530 SO: 415 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SO: 250 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 45

60H: 28/12/2022 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 470 SO: 390 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 65

72H: 29/12/2022 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 455 SO: 360 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/12/2022 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 405 SO: 335 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 95

120H: 31/12/2022 00 UTC: 30.0 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 425 SO: 315 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SO: 205 NO: 130

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, L'APPARENCE EN IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE
DE DARIAN A BEAUCOUP OSCILLE AVEC UN OEIL PLUS OU MOINS DEFINI.
CEPENDANT SUR LA DERNIERE HEURE, LES ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES SONT A LA
HAUSSE ET SE RAPPROCHENT DES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES. L'INTENSITE A DONC
ETE REHAUSSEE A 85KT. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (SSMIS DE
2148Z ET AMSR2 DE 2005Z) NE MONTRENT PAS DE CHANGEMENT SIGNIFICATIF
DE LA STRUCTURE. LES ANALYSES DU CIMSS SEMBLENT PAR CONTRE INDIQUER
UNE BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT.

DARIAN POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD PILOTEE PAR LA
DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD. AUJOURD'HUI, DARIAN DEVRAIT
AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, EN LIEN AVEC LE GONFLEMENT DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN
COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES. LA DISPERSION
EST RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE JUSQU'EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, SUGGERANT UNE BONNE
CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SEMBLENT LEGEREMENT S'AMELIORER
AUJOURD'HUI AVEC LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT. DARIAN DEVRAIT ALORS
GARDER A MINIMA LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. LA PRESENTE PREVISION
NE TIENT PAS COMPTE D'EVENTUEL CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL. DES MARDI, LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD,
ET LA FORTE BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SOUS JACENT (EAUX FROIDES
INFERIEURES A 26C) DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT MARQUE.
VENDREDI OU SAMEDI, DARIAN POURRAIT DEMARRER SON EXTRATROPICALISATION
A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET DEVENIR UN SYSTEME
POST-TROPICAL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 260049
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/4/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/26 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 85.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 21 NM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 455 SW: 415 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/26 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 84.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 465 SW: 435 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2022/12/27 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 510 SW: 465 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2022/12/27 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 490 SW: 435 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2022/12/28 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 530 SW: 415 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 45

60H: 2022/12/28 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 470 SW: 390 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 65

72H: 2022/12/29 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 455 SW: 360 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/12/30 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 405 SW: 335 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 95

120H: 2022/12/31 00 UTC: 30.0 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 425 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 130

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, DARIAN'S APPEARANCE IN CLASSICAL IMAGERY
CHANGED BACK AND FORTH WITH A MORE OR LESS DEFINED EYE. NEVERTHELESS
ON THE LATEST HOUR, SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS ARE INCREASING AND
CLOSING ON THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. INTENSITY IS THEN SLIGHTLY
UPGRADED TO 85KT. MASY MICROWAVE DATA (2148Z AMSR2 AND 2005Z SSMIS)
DO NOT SHOW A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE. CIMSS ANALYSIS
HOWEVER SEEMS TO INDICATE THE DECREASE OF SHEAR.

DARIAN CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY DRIVEN BY THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TODAY, DARIAN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
SOUTHWESTERLY TURN, IN RELATION WITH THE SWELLING OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THE DISPERSION IS RELATIVELY LOW
EVEN AT LONGER RANGE, SUGGESTING A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SEEM TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW WITH
THE DECREASE OF THE SHEAR. DARIAN THEN SHOULD AT LEAST STAY AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT A
POSSIBLE ERC. ON TUESDAY ONWARDS, THE INCREASE IN NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND THE STEEP DECAY OF THE UNDERNEATH OCEANIC POTENTIAL
(COLD WATERS BELOW 26C) SHOULD LEAD TO A STRONGER WEAKENING. ON
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH, DARIAN COULD BEGIN ITS
EXTRATROPICALISATION PHASE, AND BECOME A POST TROPICAL SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 260024
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/12/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 26/12/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 85.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 95 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 125
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 225 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 245 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/26 AT 12 UTC:
17.2 S / 84.5 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 250 NM SW: 235 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/27 AT 00 UTC:
17.6 S / 83.4 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 275 NM SW: 250 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 251849
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/4/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 25/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.1 S / 85.1 E
(SEIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 14

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 455 SO: 415 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/12/2022 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 455 SO: 405 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 26/12/2022 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 500 SO: 415 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

36H: 27/12/2022 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 545 SO: 455 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SO: 280 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 27/12/2022 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 520 SO: 415 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SO: 250 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 65

60H: 28/12/2022 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 520 SO: 370 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 45

72H: 28/12/2022 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 445 SO: 360 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 110

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/12/2022 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 405 SO: 305 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 185 NO: 85

120H: 30/12/2022 18 UTC: 28.9 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 435 SO: 305 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 120

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, L'APPARENCE EN IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE
DE DARIAN A PEU EVOLUE AVEC UN OEIL SOUVENT MAL DEFINI MAIS PRESENT
ENTOURE DE SOMMETS FROIDS. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (SSMIS DE
1248Z) ET LES ANALYSES DU CIMSS CONFIRMENT LA PRESENCE DE
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. PAR CONTRE, LE DECLENCHEMENT D'UN
NOUVEAU CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL NE SEMBLE PAS SI AUSSI
NET SUR CETTE DERNIERE IMAGE.

DARIAN POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD PILOTEE PAR LA
DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD. DEMAIN, DARIAN DEVRAIT AMORCER UN
VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, EN LIEN AVEC LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS
ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES. LA DISPERSION EST
RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE JUSQU'EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, SUGGERANT UNE BONNE
CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SEMBLENT LEGEREMENT S'AMELIORER
DEMAIN AVEC LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT ET LA FIN TEMPORAIRE DES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC. DARIAN DEVRAIT ALORS GARDER A MINIMA LE STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. LA PRESENTE PREVISION NE TIENT PAS COMPTE
D'EVENTUEL CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL. DES MARDI, LE
RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD, ET LA FORTE BAISSE DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SOUS JACENT (EAUX FROIDES INFERIEURES A 26C)
DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT MARQUE. VENDREDI OU SAMEDI,
DARIAN POURRAIT DEMARRER SON EXTRATROPICALISATION A L'AVANT D'UN
THALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET DEVENIR UN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 251849
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/4/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/25 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 85.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 14

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 455 SW: 415 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/26 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 455 SW: 405 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2022/12/26 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 500 SW: 415 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

36H: 2022/12/27 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 545 SW: 455 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2022/12/27 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 520 SW: 415 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 65

60H: 2022/12/28 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 520 SW: 370 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 45

72H: 2022/12/28 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 445 SW: 360 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 110

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/12/29 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 405 SW: 305 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 85

120H: 2022/12/30 18 UTC: 28.9 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 435 SW: 305 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0+

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, DARIAN'S APPEARANCE IN CLASSICAL IMAGERY
HARDLY CHANGED WITH AN OFTEN PRESENT BUT ILL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED
BY COLD TOPS. THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGES (SSMIS FROM 1248Z) AND CIMSS
ANALYSIS CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE
ONSET OF A NEW EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERCA DOES NOT SEEM SO
CLEAR ON THIS LAST IMAGE.

DARIAN CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY DRIVEN BY THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TOMORROW, DARIAN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
A SOUTHWESTERLY TURN, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SWELLING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THE DISPERSION IS
RELATIVELY LOW EVEN AT LONGER RANGE, SUGGESTING A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SEEM TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW WITH
THE DECREASE OF THE SHEAR AND THE TEMPORARY END OF THE DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS. DARIAN THEN SHOULD AT LEAST STAY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT A POSSIBLE ERC. ON
TUESDAY ONWARDS, THE INCREASE IN NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
THE STEEP DECAY OF THE UNDERNEATH OCEANIC POTENTIAL (COLD WATERS
BELOW 26C) SHOULD LEAD TO A STRONGER WEAKENING. ON FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY, AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH, DARIAN COULD BEGIN ITS
EXTRATROPICALISATION PHASE, AND BECOME A POST TROPICAL SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 251818
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/12/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 25/12/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 85.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 95 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 125
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 225 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 245 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/26 AT 06 UTC:
16.9 S / 85.0 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 245 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/26 AT 18 UTC:
17.4 S / 84.2 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 270 NM SW: 225 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 251252
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/4/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 25/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.7 S / 85.3 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 MN

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 435 SO: 345 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/12/2022 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 85.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 435 SO: 390 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 230 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 26/12/2022 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 455 SO: 405 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 240 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 27/12/2022 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 530 SO: 445 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 27/12/2022 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 520 SO: 405 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 270 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 75

60H: 28/12/2022 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 520 SO: 390 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 250 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 45

72H: 28/12/2022 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 455 SO: 360 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/12/2022 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 390 SO: 315 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 185 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 110 NO: 45

120H: 30/12/2022 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 435 SO: 305 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 215 NO: 120

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5
CI=5.0-

APRES AVOIR PERDU SA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL LA NUIT DERNIERE, DURANT
LES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION A REPRIS DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
SUD-OUEST PUIS UN OEIL S'EST RECONSTRUIT PPROGRESSIVEMENT. CECI EST
CONFIRME PAR LA DONNEE MICRO-ONDES GCOM DE 07H37UTC OU LE MUR DE
L'OEIL APPARAIT A NOUVEAU QUASIMENT COMPLET, AVEC UN TILD VERS LE
SUD-OUEST ENTRE LE 37 ET LE 85GHZ. EN CONSEQUENCE, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
A ETE ARRETE, ET L'INTENSITE MAINTENUE A 75KT.
DE PLUS LA TOUT DERNIERE DONNEE MICRO-ONDE DE 10H37UTC REVELE LA
PRESENCE D'UN DEUXIEME MUR EXTERIEUR, AVEC UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT
DU MUR DE L'OEIL EN COURS, ANNONCANT UN NOUVEL AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
SYSTEME.

DARIAN POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-EST PILOTEE
PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD. EN DA BUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, DARIAN DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, EN
LIEN AVEC LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD. LA
PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES. LA DISPERSION EST RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE JUSQU'EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE, SUGGERANT UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LE SCENARIO.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SEMBLENT LEGEREMENT S'AMELIORER
LUNDI AVEC LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT ET LE RETOUR DANS DE L'AIR PLUS
HUMIDE AUTOUR DU SYSTEME.
MAIS ES MARDI L'AIR SEC S'INSTALLE A NOUVEAU AU NORD IMMEDIAT DE LA
CIRCULATION, DE PLUS DURIAN EVOLUE SUR DES EAUX AU POTENTIEL MOINDRE,
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT REPREND.
EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST FACILITE LES
INTRUSONS D'AIR SEC, ET SURTOUT LA BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AVEC
DES EAUX INFERIEURES A 26C AU SUD DE 20S, CONDUISENT A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT REGULIER DU SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 251252
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/4/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 85.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 NM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 435 SW: 345 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/26 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 85.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 435 SW: 390 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2022/12/26 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 455 SW: 405 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2022/12/27 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 530 SW: 445 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2022/12/27 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 520 SW: 405 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 75

60H: 2022/12/28 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 520 SW: 390 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 45

72H: 2022/12/28 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 455 SW: 360 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/12/29 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 390 SW: 315 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 45

120H: 2022/12/30 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 435 SW: 305 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5
CI=5.0-

AFTER HAVING LOST ITS EYE CONFIGURATION LAST NIGHT, DURING THE LAST 6
HOURS, THE CONVECTION HAS RESUMED IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND
THEN AN EYE HAS BEEN PROGRESSIVELY REBUILT. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE
GCOM MICROWAVE DATA OF 07H37UTC WHERE THE EYE WALL APPEARS AGAIN
ALMOST COMPLETE, WITH A TILD TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST BETWEEN 37 AND
85GHZ. AS A CONSEQUENCE, THE FADING HAS BEEN STOPPED, AND THE
INTENSITY MAINTAINED AT 75KT.
MOREOVER, THE VERY LAST MICROWAVE DATA OF 10H37UTC REVEALS THE
PRESENCE OF A SECOND OUTER WALL, WITH A WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE
EYE IN PROGRESS, ANNOUNCING A NEW WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.

DARIAN CONTINUES ITS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY DRIVEN BY THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK, DARIAN IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SOUTHWESTERLY TURN, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
SWELLING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE CMRS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THE
DISPERSION IS RELATIVELY LOW UNTIL THE END OF THE TIME SCALE,
SUGGESTING A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SCENARIO.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SEEM TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY WITH
THE DECREASE OF THE SHEAR AND THE RETURN IN MORE HUMID AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM.
BUT ON TUESDAY DRY AIR SETTLES AGAIN TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OF THE
CIRCULATION, MOREOVER DURIAN EVOLVES ON WATERS WITH LESS POTENTIAL,
WEAKENING RESUMES.
AT THE END OF THE DAY, THE NORTH-WESTERN SHEAR FACILITATES THE
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR, AND ESPECIALLY THE DECREASE OF THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL WITH WATERS LOWER THAN 26C SOUTH OF 20S, LEAD TO A REGULAR
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 250616
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/12/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 25/12/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN) 964 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 84.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, UP TO 250
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 125 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 145 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 185 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 235 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/25 AT 18 UTC:
16.2 S / 84.9 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 225 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/26 AT 06 UTC:
16.8 S / 84.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 255 NM SW: 215 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 250300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 221225013106
2022122500 05S DARIAN 016 01 155 11 SATL 060
T000 145S 0847E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 145 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 159S 0852E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 167S 0853E 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 173S 0848E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 177S 0839E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 199S 0798E 055 R050 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 227S 0746E 045 R034 070 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 262S 0708E 040 R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 84.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 84.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.9S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.7S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.3S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.7S 83.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.9S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.7S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 26.2S 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 84.8E.
25DEC22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 845
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251500Z AND 260300Z.
//
0522121106 96S 959E 15
0522121112 97S 965E 15
0522121118 99S 971E 15
0522121200 101S 977E 25
0522121206 106S 977E 25
0522121212 108S 974E 25
0522121218 109S 970E 25
0522121300 107S 966E 25
0522121306 105S 962E 25
0522121312 103S 955E 25
0522121318 105S 952E 25
0522121400 107S 948E 25
0522121406 108S 940E 25
0522121412 102S 926E 25
0522121418 96S 916E 25
0522121500 88S 918E 30
0522121506 86S 924E 30
0522121512 83S 932E 30
0522121518 84S 939E 25
0522121600 86S 944E 25
0522121606 88S 948E 25
0522121612 92S 950E 25
0522121618 97S 945E 25
0522121700 102S 937E 25
0522121706 107S 934E 25
0522121712 113S 932E 25
0522121718 116S 931E 25
0522121800 117S 929E 30
0522121806 118S 927E 35
0522121812 119S 928E 40
0522121818 120S 930E 45
0522121900 121S 932E 50
0522121906 123S 933E 65
0522121906 123S 933E 65
0522121906 123S 933E 65
0522121912 126S 934E 75
0522121912 126S 934E 75
0522121912 126S 934E 75
0522121918 131S 934E 75
0522121918 131S 934E 75
0522121918 131S 934E 75
0522122000 135S 932E 90
0522122000 135S 932E 90
0522122000 135S 932E 90
0522122006 138S 929E 110
0522122006 138S 929E 110
0522122006 138S 929E 110
0522122012 141S 926E 115
0522122012 141S 926E 115
0522122012 141S 926E 115
0522122018 142S 920E 130
0522122018 142S 920E 130
0522122018 142S 920E 130
0522122100 141S 914E 130
0522122100 141S 914E 130
0522122100 141S 914E 130
0522122106 139S 907E 130
0522122106 139S 907E 130
0522122106 139S 907E 130
0522122112 138S 898E 130
0522122112 138S 898E 130
0522122112 138S 898E 130
0522122118 133S 890E 125
0522122118 133S 890E 125
0522122118 133S 890E 125
0522122200 132S 882E 120
0522122200 132S 882E 120
0522122200 132S 882E 120
0522122206 130S 874E 115
0522122206 130S 874E 115
0522122206 130S 874E 115
0522122212 129S 867E 105
0522122212 129S 867E 105
0522122212 129S 867E 105
0522122218 128S 858E 95
0522122218 128S 858E 95
0522122218 128S 858E 95
0522122300 125S 851E 95
0522122300 125S 851E 95
0522122300 125S 851E 95
0522122306 124S 843E 115
0522122306 124S 843E 115
0522122306 124S 843E 115
0522122312 123S 838E 130
0522122312 123S 838E 130
0522122312 123S 838E 130
0522122318 123S 832E 115
0522122318 123S 832E 115
0522122318 123S 832E 115
0522122400 123S 831E 105
0522122400 123S 831E 105
0522122400 123S 831E 105
0522122406 125S 832E 100
0522122406 125S 832E 100
0522122406 125S 832E 100
0522122412 130S 837E 95
0522122412 130S 837E 95
0522122412 130S 837E 95
0522122418 135S 842E 95
0522122418 135S 842E 95
0522122418 135S 842E 95
0522122500 145S 847E 90
0522122500 145S 847E 90
0522122500 145S 847E 90
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 84.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 84.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.9S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.7S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.3S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.7S 83.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.9S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.7S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 26.2S 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 84.8E.
25DEC22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 845
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251500Z AND 260300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 250049
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/4/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 25/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.2 S / 84.5 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 950 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 14 MN

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 400 SO: 345 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/12/2022 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 405 SO: 360 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 26/12/2022 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 445 SO: 405 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 240 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 26/12/2022 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 465 SO: 445 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 260 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 27/12/2022 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 530 SO: 465 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SO: 260 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 27/12/2022 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 520 SO: 415 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SO: 270 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 75

72H: 28/12/2022 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 520 SO: 400 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SO: 250 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/12/2022 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 415 SO: 345 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 85

120H: 30/12/2022 00 UTC: 26.8 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 405 SO: 305 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DARIAN A PERDU SA CONFIGURATION EN
OEIL POUR PASSER EN CONFIGURATION DE CENTRE NOYE SOUS LA MASSE.
CEPENDANT LA CONVECTION A REPRIS DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST AVEC DES
TEMPERATURES DE SOMMETS DE NUAGES PLUS FROIDES. LES ANALYSES DVORAK
EN CDO SONT DE 5.0. SUR L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 2204Z LE MUR DE
L'OEIL EST DESORMAIS OUVERT DANS LE NORD-EST, POSSIBLEMENT DU A UNE
PETITE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. DARIAN A DONC ETE
DECLASSE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL PAR LE CMRS AVEC DES VENTS DE
85KT.

DARIAN POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-EST PILOTEE
PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. EN DA BUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, DARIAN DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, EN
LIEN AVEC LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD. LA
PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES. LA DISPERSION EST RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE JUSQU'EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE, SUGGERANT UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LE SCENARIO.

DURANT LES PROCHAINES 24H, UNE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST
POURRAIT SE METTRE EN PLACE. ASSOCIEE A LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, CELA POURRAIT CONDUIRE A UN LEGER
AFFAIBLISSEMENT. LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SEMBLENT ETRE A
NOUVEAU ETRE PLUS FAVORABLES TEMPORAIREMENT LUNDI AVEC LA BAISSE DU
CISAILLEMENT ET LE RETOUR DANS DE L'AIR PLUS HUMIDE AUTOUR DU
SYSTEME. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET SURTOUT
LA BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AVEC DES EAUX INFERIEURES A 26C AU
SUD DE 20S, DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT REGULIER DU
SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 250049
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/4/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/25 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 84.5 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 14 NM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 400 SW: 345 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/25 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 405 SW: 360 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2022/12/26 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 445 SW: 405 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2022/12/26 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 465 SW: 445 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2022/12/27 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 530 SW: 465 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2022/12/27 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 520 SW: 415 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 75

72H: 2022/12/28 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 520 SW: 400 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/12/29 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 415 SW: 345 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 85

120H: 2022/12/30 00 UTC: 26.8 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 405 SW: 305 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, DARIAN HAS LOST ITS EYE PATTERN TO BECOME A
DROWNED CENTER UNDER THE MASS. HOWEVER CONVECTION HAS RESTARDED IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH COOLER CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. THE DVORAK
ANALYSIS IN CDO IS 5.0. ON THE 2204Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE THE
EYEWALL IS NOW OPEN IN THE NORTHEAST, POSSIBLY DUE TO A SMALL
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. DARIAN HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE RSMC WITH WINDS OF 85KT.

DARIAN CONTINUES ITS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK DRIVEN BY THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. EARLY NEXT WEEK, DARIAN IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SOUTHWESTERLY TURN, IN RELATION WITH THE BUILDING
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON
A COMBINATION OF THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THE DISPERSION IS
RELATIVELY LOW UP TO THE LONGER RANGE, SUGGESTING A GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE SCENARIO.

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A NORTH-WESTERN CONSTRAINT SHOULD BUILD UP.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERE,
THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
SEEM TO BE MORE FAVORABLE TEMPORARILY ON MONDAY WITH THE DECREASE OF
THE SHEAR AND THE RETURN IN MORE HUMID AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. AT
LONGER RANGER, THE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND ESPECIALLY THE
DECREASE OF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL WITH WATERS BELOW 26C SOUTH OF 20S,
SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 250004
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/12/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 25/12/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN) 950 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 84.5 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, UP TO 250
NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 125 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 145 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 185 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 215 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/25 AT 12 UTC:
15.7 S / 84.8 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 220 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/26 AT 00 UTC:
16.7 S / 84.8 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 240 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 241844
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/4/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 24/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.5 S / 84.1 E
(TREIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 950 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 MN

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SO: 295 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 155 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/12/2022 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 380 SO: 335 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 25/12/2022 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 390 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 26/12/2022 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 445 SO: 415 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 26/12/2022 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 445 SO: 425 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

60H: 27/12/2022 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 520 SO: 425 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 27/12/2022 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 500 SO: 380 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/12/2022 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 455 SO: 350 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 110

120H: 29/12/2022 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 380 SO: 325 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 75

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DU CYLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE DARIAN EST MOINS NETTE SUR LES IMAGES INFRAROUGE ET
LA TEMPERATURE DES SOMMETS DES NUAGES S'EST RECHAUFFEE. LES ANALYSES
DVORAK SONT EN LEGERE BAISSE AVEC UNE ESTIMATION A 5.0. SUR LA PASSE
MICRO-ONDES DE 1308Z, LE MUR DE L'OEIL COMMENCE A MONTRER UNE
FAIBLESSE DANS LE NORD-EST, PROBABLEMENT LIEE A UNE PETITE INTRUSION
D AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. EN TENANT COMPTE DES ANALYSES
OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES L'INTENSITE EST REVUE A LA
BAISSE AVEC DES VENTS DE 90KT.

DARIAN POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-EST PILOTE PAR
LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. EN DA BUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, DARIAN DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, EN
LIEN AVEC LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD. LA
PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES. LA DISPERSION EST RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE JUSQU'EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE, SUGGERANT UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LE SCENARIO.

DURANT LES PROCHAINES 24H, UNE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST
POURRAIT SE METTRE EN PLACE. ASSOCIEE A LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, CELA POURRAIT CONDUIRE A UN LEGER
AFFAIBLISSEMENT. LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SEMBLENT ETRE A
NOUVEAU ETRE PLUS FAVORABLES TEMPORAIREMENT LUNDI AVEC LA BAISSE DU
CISAILLEMENT ET LE RETOUR DANS DE L'AIR PLUS HUMIDE AUTOUR DU
SYSTEME. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET SURTOUT
LA BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AVEC DES EAUX INFERIEURES A 26C AU
SUD DE 20S, DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT REGULIER DU
SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 241844
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/4/20222023
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/24 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 84.1 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 NM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/25 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 380 SW: 335 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2022/12/25 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 390 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2022/12/26 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 445 SW: 415 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2022/12/26 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 445 SW: 425 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

60H: 2022/12/27 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 520 SW: 425 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2022/12/27 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 500 SW: 380 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/12/28 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 455 SW: 350 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 110

120H: 2022/12/29 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 380 SW: 325 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN OF THE INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DARIAN IS LESS CLEAR ON INFRARED IMAGES AND THE TEMPERATURE
OF THE CLOUD TOPS HAS WARMED UP. DVORAK ANALYSES ARE SLIGHTLY DOWN
WITH AN ESTIMATE OF 5.0. ON THE 1308Z MICROWAVE PASS, THE EYEWALL IS
STARTING TO SHOW WEAKNESS IN THE NORTHEAST, PROBABLY RELATED TO A
SMALL INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERE. WITH THE
AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES, THE INTENSITY IS REVISED
DOWNWARDS WITH WINDS OF 90KT.

DARIAN CONTINUES ITS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK DRIVEN BY THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. EARLY NEXT WEEK, DARIAN IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SOUTHWESTERLY TURN, IN RELATION WITH THE BUILDING
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON
A COMBINATION OF THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THE DISPERSION IS
RELATIVELY LOW UP TO THE LONGER RANGE, SUGGESTING A GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE SCENARIO.

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A NORTH-WESTERN CONSTRAINT SHOULD BUILD UP.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERE,
THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
SEEM TO BE MORE FAVORABLE TEMPORARILY ON MONDAY WITH THE DECREASE OF
THE SHEAR AND THE RETURN IN MORE HUMID AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. AT
LONGER RANGER, THE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND ESPECIALLY THE
DECREASE OF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL WITH WATERS BELOW 26C SOUTH OF 20S,
SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 241808
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/12/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 24/12/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN) 950 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 84.1 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, UP TO 250
NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/25 AT 06 UTC:
15.1 S / 84.8 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/25 AT 18 UTC:
16.3 S / 85.0 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 241310
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/4/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 24/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.9 S / 83.6 E
(DOUZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 MN

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SO: 315 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 205 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/12/2022 00 UTC: 14.5 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 390 SO: 325 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 25/12/2022 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SO: 335 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 215 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 26/12/2022 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 425 SO: 390 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 230 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 26/12/2022 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 425 SO: 425 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 250 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

60H: 27/12/2022 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 500 SO: 470 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SO: 260 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 45

72H: 27/12/2022 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 470 SO: 405 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 260 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/12/2022 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 455 SO: 360 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 45

120H: 29/12/2022 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 360 SO: 295 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 75

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST
AMELIOREE AVEC UN OEIL QUI S'EST NETTEMENT RECHAUFFE EN INFRAROUGE.
TOUTEFOIS LES ANALYSES DVORAK NE DEPASSENT PAS LES 5.5 ET LE SATCON
DONNE UNE INTENSITE EN BAISSE A 90KT 10MIN. MALGRE CELA, LES
DERNIERES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 1050Z ET 1117Z AINSI QU'AMSR2
DE 0831Z MONTRE TOUJOURS UN MUR DE L'OEIL BIEN MARQUE EN 89H.
L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE POUR L'INSTANT A 95KT.

DARIAN A ACCELERE SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST PILOTE PAR
LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. EN DA BUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, DARIAN DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, EN
LIEN AVEC LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD. LA
PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES. LA DISPERSION EST RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE JUSQU'EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE, SUGGERANT UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LE SCENARIO.

DURANT LES PROCHAINES 24H, UNE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST
POURRAIT SE METTRE EN PLACE ET CONDUIRE A UN LEGER AFFAIBLISSEMENT.
LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES POURRAIENT A NOUVEAU ETRE PLUS
FAVORABLES TEMPORAIREMENT LUNDI AVEC LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT. EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET SURTOUT LA BAISSE DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AVEC DES EAUX INFERIEURES A 26C AU SUD DE 20S,
DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT REGULIER DU SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 241310
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/4/20222023
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9 S / 83.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 NM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 315 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/25 00 UTC: 14.5 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 390 SW: 325 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2022/12/25 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SW: 335 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2022/12/26 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 425 SW: 390 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2022/12/26 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 425 SW: 425 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2022/12/27 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 500 SW: 470 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 45

72H: 2022/12/27 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 470 SW: 405 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/12/28 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 455 SW: 360 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 45

120H: 2022/12/29 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 360 SW: 295 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVED WITH A
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER EYE IN INFRARED. HOWEVER DVORAK ANALYSIS DO NOT
EXCEED 5.5 AND SATCON IS DECREASING TO 90KT 10MIN. IN SPITE OF THIS
DECREASE, LAST MICROWAVES (1050Z AND 1117Z SSMIS / 0831Z AMSR2) STILL
SHOW A WELL DEFINED EYEWALL IN 89H. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT
95KT FOR NOW.

DARIAN HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD DRIVEN BY THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. EARLY NEXT WEEK, DARIAN SHOULD
BEGIN A SOUTHWESTERLY TURN, IN RELATION TO THE BUILDING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THE DISPERSION IS
RELATIVELY LOW UP TO THE LONGER RANGE, SUGGESTING A GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE SCENARIO.

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A NORTH-WESTERN CONSTRAINT SHOULD BUILD UP
AND LEAD TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE
AGAIN MORE FAVORABLE TEMPORARILY ON MONDAY WITH THE DECREASE OF THE
SHEAR. AT LONGER RANGER, THE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
ESPECIALLY THE DECREASE OF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL WITH WATERS BELOW
26C SOUTH OF 20S, SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 241237 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/12/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 24/12/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9 S / 83.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, UP TO 250
NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 125
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/25 AT 00 UTC:
14.5 S / 84.4 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/25 AT 12 UTC:
16.0 S / 84.8 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 241233
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/12/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 24/12/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9 S / 83.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, UP TO 250
NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 125
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/25 AT 00 UTC:
14.5 S / 84.4 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT,
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/25 AT 12 UTC:
16.0 S / 84.8 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT,
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 240725
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/4/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 24/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.5 S / 83.2 E
(DOUZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 14 MN

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SO: 315 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 205 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/12/2022 18 UTC: 13.8 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 360 SO: 345 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SO: 215 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 25/12/2022 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SO: 335 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SO: 215 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 25/12/2022 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 400 SO: 380 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 26/12/2022 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 415 SO: 425 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 250 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

60H: 26/12/2022 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 455 SO: 400 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

72H: 27/12/2022 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 520 SO: 415 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SO: 270 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/12/2022 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 480 SO: 360 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SO: 250 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 130 NO: 45

120H: 29/12/2022 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 350 SO: 350 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 175 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0- CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EST RESTE
DEGRADE SUITE AU CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL. BIEN QUE LES
DONNEES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS 0026Z ET LES IMAGES VISIBLES SUGGERENT LA
PRESENCE D'UN OEIL ENCORE BIEN FORME. CE DERNIER EST RESTE MASQUE PAR
UN VOILE DE CIRRUS QUI A PROVOQUE UNE BAISSE DE LA SIGNATURE DVORAK.
PARMI LES DONNEES OBJECTIVES, UN DESACCORD EST EGALEMENT PRESENT
ENTRE LES ESTIMATIONS AUTOUR DE 00Z, DE LA SAR RCM3 PROCHE DES 80KT
10MIN ET DES AUTRES MESURES COMME LA PASSE SMAP A 110KT 10MIN. DEVANT
CES DONNEES CONTRADICTOIRES, L'ANALYSE D'INTENSITE EST ABAISSEE A
95KT, MAIS CETTE ESTIMATION POURRAIT ETRE CONSERVATIVE.

DARIAN A ENTAME SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST PILOTE PAR LA
DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. EN DA BUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, DARIAN DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE
SUD-OUEST, EN LIEN AVEC LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
SUD. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES. LA DISPERSION EST RELATIVEMENT
FAIBLE JUSQU'EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, SUGGERANT UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LE
SCENARIO.

DURANT LES PROCHAINES 24H, UNE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST
POURRAIT SE METTRE EN PLACE ET CONDUIRE A UN LEGER AFFAIBLISSEMENT.
LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES POURRAIENT A NOUVEAU ETRE PLUS
FAVORABLES TEMPORAIREMENT LUNDI AVEC LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT. EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET SURTOUT LA BAISSE DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AVEC DES EAUX INFERIEURES A 26C AU SUD DE 20S,
DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT REGULIER DU SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 240725
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/4/20222023
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/24 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 83.2 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 14 NM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 315 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/24 18 UTC: 13.8 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 360 SW: 345 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2022/12/25 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SW: 335 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2022/12/25 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 400 SW: 380 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2022/12/26 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 415 SW: 425 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2022/12/26 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 455 SW: 400 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2022/12/27 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 520 SW: 415 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/12/28 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 480 SW: 360 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 45

120H: 2022/12/29 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 350 SW: 350 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0- CI=5.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINED DETERIORATED
FOLLOWING THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. ALTHOUGH THE 0026Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE DATA AND VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF A STILL
WELL-FORMED EYE. THE LATTER IS STILL MASKED BY A VEIL OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS WHICH CAUSED A DECREASE IN THE DVORAK SIGNATURE. AMONG THE
OBJECTIVE DATA, A DISAGREEMENT IS ALSO PRESENT BETWEEN THE ESTIMATES
AROUND 00Z, WITH THE RCM3 SAR CLOSE TO 80KT 10MIN AND OTHER
MEASUREMENTS LIKE THE SMAP PASS NEAR 110KT 10MIN. GIVEN THESE
CONTRADICTORY DATA, THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS LOWERED TO 95KT, BUT
THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.

DARIAN HAS STARTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD DRIVEN BY THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. EARLY NEXT WEEK, DARIAN SHOULD
BEGIN A SOUTHWESTERLY TURN, IN RELATION TO THE BUILDING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THE DISPERSION IS
RELATIVELY LOW UP TO THE LONGER RANGE, SUGGESTING A GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE SCENARIO.

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A NORTH-WESTERN CONSTRAINT SHOULD BUILD UP
AND LEAD TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE
AGAIN MORE FAVORABLE TEMPORARILY ON MONDAY WITH THE DECREASE OF THE
SHEAR. AT LONGER RANGER, THE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
ESPECIALLY THE DECREASE OF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL WITH WATERS BELOW
26C SOUTH OF 20S, SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 240625
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/12/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 24/12/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 83.2 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, UP TO 250
NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 125
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/24 AT 18 UTC:
13.8 S / 84.3 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/25 AT 06 UTC:
15.5 S / 84.8 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 240004
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/12/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 24/12/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN) 932 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2 S / 83.0 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, TILL 270 NM
IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 185 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/24 AT 12 UTC:
13.0 S / 83.2 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/25 AT 00 UTC:
14.2 S / 83.9 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 231751
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/12/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 23/12/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN) 935 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3 S / 83.1 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, TILL 240 NM
IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/24 AT 06 UTC:
12.6 S / 82.6 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/24 AT 18 UTC:
13.4 S / 83.1 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 231253
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/4/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 23/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.4 S / 83.8 E
(DOUZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.5/6.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 935 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 10 MN

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 185 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 70 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/12/2022 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 345 SO: 350 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 24/12/2022 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SO: 345 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SO: 215 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 25/12/2022 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 360 SO: 325 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 25/12/2022 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 360 SO: 345 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 26/12/2022 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 400 SO: 380 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 26/12/2022 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 435 SO: 405 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SO: 250 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/12/2022 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 500 SO: 380 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 305 SO: 250 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

120H: 28/12/2022 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 455 SO: 335 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SO: 220 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SO: 110 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=6.5 CI=6.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE DARIAN A
POURSUIVIT SON INTENSIFICATION. LES IMAGES SATELLITES DES
GEOSTATIONNAIRES INDIQUENT UN NET RECHAUFFEMENT DE LA TEMPERATURE DE
L'OEIL AVEC UNE EXTENSION DES SOMMETS LES PLUS FROIDS FLUCTUANTE.
L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUR LES DERNIERES HEURES EST DE 6.5. CEPENDANT LA
PASSE AMSR2 DE 0742Z MONTRE EN MICRO-ONDES UNE STRUCTURE UN PEU MOINS
NETTE AUTOUR DU MUR DE L'OEIL AVEC UNE POSSIBLE DISCONTINUITE DANS LE
MUR DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. EN TENANT COMPTE DES DIFFERENTES
ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES (ADT, SATCON), LE CMRS ESTIME LES
VENTS MAXIMUM DU SYSTEME A 100KT.

DARIAN POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST, GUIDE PAR UNE
DORSALE DE MOYENNE A HAUTE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE PLUS AU SUD. AU COURS
DE LA NUIT ET EN JOURNEE DE DEMAIN, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT EFFECTUER UN
VIRAGE MARQUE VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST OU LE SUD-EST TOUT EN RALENTISSANT
SA PROGRESSION. CE CHANGEMENT DE TRAJECTOIRE EST PILOTE PAR RETRAIT
TEMPORAIRE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET LA REPRISE DU FLUX DIRECTEUR
PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD. EN DA BUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, DARIAN DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE
SUD-OUEST, EN LIEN AVEC LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
SUD. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES. LA DISPERSION EST RELATIVEMENT
FAIBLE JUSQU'A DIMANCHE PUIS DEVIENT PLUS IMPORTANTE PAR LA SUITE,
DURANT LA PHASE COMPLEXE DE DOUBLE VIRAGE VERS LE SUD.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DANS LESQUELLES LE SYSTEME EVOLUE
SEMBLENT FAVORABLES A LA POURSUITE D'UNE RE-INTENSIFICATION LA NUIT
PROCHAINE DANS UNE FENETRE DES PROCHAINES 24H MAIS CELLE-CI POURRA
ETRE LIMITEE D'ICI 24H PAR LE DEPLACEMENT PLUS LENT DU SYSTEME
(REFROIDISSEMENT DES SST) ET AUSSI PAR UNE LEGERE AUGMENTATION DU
CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEMAIN SOIR. A PARTIR DE MARDI,
UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT PROFOND COMBINEE A DES INCURSIONS D'AIR
SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE
DEVRAIENT CONTINUER A AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 231253
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/4/20222023
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 83.8 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 935 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 10 NM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 70 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/24 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 345 SW: 350 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2022/12/24 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SW: 345 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2022/12/25 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 360 SW: 325 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2022/12/25 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 360 SW: 345 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2022/12/26 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 400 SW: 380 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2022/12/26 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 435 SW: 405 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/12/27 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 500 SW: 380 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

120H: 2022/12/28 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 455 SW: 335 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SW: 220 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 110 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.5 CI=6.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE DARIAN HAS
CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY. GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A
CLEAR WARMING OF THE EYE TEMPERATURE WITH A FLUCTUATING EXTENSION OF
THE COLDER CLOUD TOP. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS FOR THE LAST HOURS IS 6.5.
HOWEVER THE AMSR2 PASS FROM 0742Z SHOWS IN MICROWAVE A SLIGHTLY LESS
CLEAR STRUCTURE AROUND THE EYE WALL WITH A POSSIBLE DISCONTINUITY IN
THE WALL IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DIFFERENT
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES (ADT, SATCON), THE CMRS ESTIMATES
THE MAXIMUM WINDS OF THE SYSTEM AT 100KT.

DARIAN CONTINUES ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST, GUIDED BY A RIDGE OF MID
TO HIGH TROPOSPHERE LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH. OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT TURN TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHEAST WHILE SLOWING ITS PROGRESS. THIS CHANGE
OF TRACK IS DRIVEN BY THE TEMPORARY WITHDRAWAL OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF THE STEERING FLOW BY THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK, DARIAN SHOULD AGAIN
BEGIN A SOUTHWESTERLY TURN, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SWELLING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE CMRS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THE DISPERSION IS
RELATIVELY WEAK UNTIL SUNDAY THEN BECOMES MORE IMPORTANT AFTERWARDS,
DURING THE COMPLEX PHASE OF THE DOUBLE SOUTHWARD TURN.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN WHICH THE SYSTEM IS EVOLVING SEEM TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR A RE-INTENSIFICATION NEXT NIGHT IN A WINDOW OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THIS COULD BE LIMITED BY THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM (COOLING OF THE SST) AND ALSO BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
TROPOSPHERE MEAN SHEAR TOMORROW EVENING. FROM TUESDAY, AN INCREASE IN
DEEP SHEAR COMBINED WITH INCURSIONS OF DRY MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR AND A
DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 231245
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/4/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 23/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.4 S / 83.8 E
(DOUZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 935 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 10 MN

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 185 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 70 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/12/2022 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 345 SO: 350 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 24/12/2022 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SO: 345 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SO: 215 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 25/12/2022 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 360 SO: 325 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 25/12/2022 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 360 SO: 345 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 26/12/2022 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 400 SO: 380 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 26/12/2022 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 435 SO: 405 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SO: 250 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/12/2022 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 500 SO: 380 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 305 SO: 250 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

120H: 28/12/2022 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 455 SO: 335 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SO: 220 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SO: 110 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=6.0 CI=6.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE DARIAN A
POURSUIVIT SON INTENSIFICATION. LES IMAGES SATELLITES DES
GEOSTATIONNAIRES INDIQUENT UN NET RECHAUFFEMENT DE LA TEMPERATURE DE
L'OEIL AVEC UNE EXTENSION DES SOMMETS LES PLUS FROIDS FLUCTUANTE.
L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUR LES DERNIERES HEURES EST DE 6.5. CEPENDANT LA
PASSE AMSR2 DE 0742Z MONTRE EN MICRO-ONDES UNE STRUCTURE UN PEU MOINS
NETTE AUTOUR DU MUR DE L'OEIL AVEC UNE POSSIBLE DISCONTINUITE DANS LE
MUR DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. EN TENANT COMPTE DES DIFFERENTES
ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES (ADT, SATCON), LE CMRS ESTIME LES
VENTS MAXIMUM DU SYSTEME A 100KT.

DARIAN POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST, GUIDE PAR UNE
DORSALE DE MOYENNE A HAUTE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE PLUS AU SUD. AU COURS
DE LA NUIT ET EN JOURNEE DE DEMAIN, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT EFFECTUER UN
VIRAGE MARQUE VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST OU LE SUD-EST TOUT EN RALENTISSANT
SA PROGRESSION. CE CHANGEMENT DE TRAJECTOIRE EST PILOTE PAR RETRAIT
TEMPORAIRE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET LA REPRISE DU FLUX DIRECTEUR
PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD. EN DA BUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, DARIAN DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE
SUD-OUEST, EN LIEN AVEC LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
SUD. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES. LA DISPERSION EST RELATIVEMENT
FAIBLE JUSQU'A DIMANCHE PUIS DEVIENT PLUS IMPORTANTE PAR LA SUITE,
DURANT LA PHASE COMPLEXE DE DOUBLE VIRAGE VERS LE SUD.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DANS LESQUELLES LE SYSTEME EVOLUE
SEMBLENT FAVORABLES A LA POURSUITE D'UNE RE-INTENSIFICATION LA NUIT
PROCHAINE DANS UNE FENETRE DES PROCHAINES 24H MAIS CELLE-CI POURRA
ETRE LIMITEE D'ICI 24H PAR LE DEPLACEMENT PLUS LENT DU SYSTEME
(REFROIDISSEMENT DES SST) ET AUSSI PAR UNE LEGERE AUGMENTATION DU
CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEMAIN SOIR. A PARTIR DE MARDI,
UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT PROFOND COMBINEE A DES INCURSIONS D'AIR
SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE
DEVRAIENT CONTINUER A AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 231245
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/4/20222023
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 83.8 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 935 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 10 NM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 70 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/24 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 345 SW: 350 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2022/12/24 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SW: 345 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2022/12/25 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 360 SW: 325 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2022/12/25 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 360 SW: 345 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2022/12/26 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 400 SW: 380 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2022/12/26 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 435 SW: 405 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/12/27 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 500 SW: 380 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

120H: 2022/12/28 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 455 SW: 335 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SW: 220 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 110 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0 CI=6.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE DARIAN HAS
CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY. GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A
CLEAR WARMING OF THE EYE TEMPERATURE WITH A FLUCTUATING EXTENSION OF
THE COLDER CLOUD TOP. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS FOR THE LAST HOURS IS 6.5.
HOWEVER THE AMSR2 PASS FROM 0742Z SHOWS IN MICROWAVE A SLIGHTLY LESS
CLEAR STRUCTURE AROUND THE EYE WALL WITH A POSSIBLE DISCONTINUITY IN
THE WALL IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DIFFERENT
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES (ADT, SATCON), THE CMRS ESTIMATES
THE MAXIMUM WINDS OF THE SYSTEM AT 100KT.

DARIAN CONTINUES ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST, GUIDED BY A RIDGE OF MID
TO HIGH TROPOSPHERE LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH. OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT TURN TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHEAST WHILE SLOWING ITS PROGRESS. THIS CHANGE
OF TRACK IS DRIVEN BY THE TEMPORARY WITHDRAWAL OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF THE STEERING FLOW BY THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK, DARIAN SHOULD AGAIN
BEGIN A SOUTHWESTERLY TURN, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SWELLING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE CMRS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THE DISPERSION IS
RELATIVELY WEAK UNTIL SUNDAY THEN BECOMES MORE IMPORTANT AFTERWARDS,
DURING THE COMPLEX PHASE OF THE DOUBLE SOUTHWARD TURN.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN WHICH THE SYSTEM IS EVOLVING SEEM TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR A RE-INTENSIFICATION NEXT NIGHT IN A WINDOW OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THIS COULD BE LIMITED BY THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM (COOLING OF THE SST) AND ALSO BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
TROPOSPHERE MEAN SHEAR TOMORROW EVENING. FROM TUESDAY, AN INCREASE IN
DEEP SHEAR COMBINED WITH INCURSIONS OF DRY MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR AND A
DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 231206
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/12/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 23/12/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN) 935 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 83.8 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, TILL 270 NM
IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/24 AT 00 UTC:
12.5 S / 82.7 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/24 AT 12 UTC:
12.9 S / 82.8 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 230700
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/4/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 23/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.5 S / 84.3 E
(DOUZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 950 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 10 MN

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SO: 240 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 325 SO: 185 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 70 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/12/2022 18 UTC: 12.6 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SO: 335 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

24H: 24/12/2022 06 UTC: 13.0 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SO: 325 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 24/12/2022 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 360 SO: 325 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SO: 150 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 25/12/2022 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 360 SO: 325 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SO: 155 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 25/12/2022 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 380 SO: 350 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 165 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 26/12/2022 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 415 SO: 390 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SO: 165 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/12/2022 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 490 SO: 400 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 65

120H: 28/12/2022 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 445 SO: 345 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SO: 185 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5 CI=5.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LES IMAGES SATELLITES INFRA-ROUGE
CONFIRMENT L'INTENSIFICATION DE DARIAN AVEC UN OEIL DE NOUVEAU BIEN
MARQUE, DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX PLUS FROIDS AUTOUR DU CENTRE ET UNE
TEMPERATURE AU COEUR DE L'OEIL PLUS CHAUDE. DE PLUS SUR L'IMAGE
VISIBLE L'OEIL EST DE NOUVEAU BIEN VISIBLE. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE
EST DONC EN LEGERE HAUSSE AVEC DES VENTS DE 90 KT. DARIAN REDEVIENT
DONC UN CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION:

DARIAN POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST, GUIDE PAR UNE
DORSALE DE MOYENNE A HAUTE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE PLUS AU SUD. SAMEDI,
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT EFFECTUER UN VIRAGE MARQUE VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST OU
LE SUD-EST TOUT EN RALENTISSANT SA PROGRESSION. CE CHANGEMENT DE
TRAJECTOIRE EST PILOTE PAR RETRAIT TEMPORAIRE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE ET LA REPRISE DU FLUX DIRECTEUR PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE AU NORD. EN DA BUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, DARIAN DEVRAIT A
NOUVEAU AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, EN LIEN AVEC LE
GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD. LA PREVISION DU CMRS
EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES
DISPONIBLES. LA DISPERSION EST RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE JUSQU'A SAMEDI
PUIS DEVIENT PLUS IMPORTANTE PAR LA SUITE, DURANT LA PHASE COMPLEXE
DE DOUBLE VIRAGE VERS LE SUD.

LA CONTRAINTE D'EST SEMBLE AVOIR DIMINUE AU COURS DE LA NUIT ET
DARIAN SEMBLE AVOIR REAGI A CETTE BAISSE DE LA CONTRAINTE. LES
CONDITIONS SEMBLENT FAVORABLES A LA POURSUITE D'UNE
RE-INTENSIFICATION AUJOURD'HUI MAIS CELLE-CI POURRA ETRE LIMITE D'ICI
24/36H PAR LE DEPLACEMENT PLUS LENT DU SYSTEME (REFROIDISSEMENT DES
SST) ET AUSSI PAR UNE LEGERE AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE SAMEDI SOIR. A PARTIR DE MARDI, UNE HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT PROFOND COMBINEE A DES INCURSIONS D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE DEVRAIENT CONTINUER A
AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 230700
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/4/20222023
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/23 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 84.3 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 10 MN

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 325 SW: 185 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 70 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/23 18 UTC: 12.6 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SW: 335 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

24H: 2022/12/24 06 UTC: 13.0 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SW: 325 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2022/12/24 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 360 SW: 325 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2022/12/25 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 360 SW: 325 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2022/12/25 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 380 SW: 350 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2022/12/26 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 415 SW: 390 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/12/27 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 490 SW: 400 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2022/12/28 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 445 SW: 345 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 185 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5 CI=5.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGES CONFIRM THE
INTENSIFICATION OF DARIAN WITH A WELL MARKED EYE AGAIN, COLDER CLOUD
TOPS AROUND THE CENTER AND A WARMER TEMPERATURE IN THE HEART OF THE
EYE. MOREOVER ON THE VISIBLE IMAGE THE EYE IS AGAIN WELL VISIBLE. THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED WITH WINDS OF 90 KT. DARIAN
BECOMES AGAIN AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

LITTLE CHANGE ON THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE FORECAST:

DARIAN CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD, GUIDED BY A RIDGE OF MID TO HIGH
TROPOSPHERE LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH. ON SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE A SHARP TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHEAST
WHILE SLOWING ITS PROGRESS. THIS CHANGE IN TRAJECTORY IS DRIVEN BY
THE TEMPORARY WITHDRAWAL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE RESUMPTION
OF THE STEERING FLOW BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. EARLY
NEXT WEEK, DARIAN SHOULD AGAIN BEGIN A SOUTHWESTERLY TURN, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SWELLING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
THE CMRS FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE. THE DISPERSION IS RELATIVELY WEAK UNTIL SATURDAY THEN
BECOMES MORE IMPORTANT AFTERWARDS, DURING THE COMPLEX PHASE OF THE
DOUBLE TURN TO THE SOUTH.

THE EASTERLY CONTRAINT SEEMS TO HAVE DECREASED DURING THE NIGHT AND
DARIAN SEEMS TO HAVE REACTED TO THIS DECREASE. THE CONDITIONS SEEM TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUATION OF A RE-INTENSIFICATION TODAY BUT
THIS COULD BE LIMITED WITHIN 24/36H BY THE SLOWER DISPLACEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM (COOLING OF THE SST) AND ALSO BY A SLIGHT INCREASE OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR ON SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, AN
INCREASE IN DEEP SHEAR COMBINED WITH INCURSIONS OF DRY
MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR AND A DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 230658
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/4/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 23/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.5 S / 84.3 E
(DOUZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 950 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 10

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SO: 240 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 325 SO: 185 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 70 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/12/2022 18 UTC: 12.6 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SO: 335 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

24H: 24/12/2022 06 UTC: 13.0 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SO: 325 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 24/12/2022 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 360 SO: 325 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SO: 150 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 25/12/2022 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 360 SO: 325 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SO: 155 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 25/12/2022 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 380 SO: 350 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 165 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 26/12/2022 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 415 SO: 390 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SO: 165 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/12/2022 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 490 SO: 400 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 65

120H: 28/12/2022 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 445 SO: 345 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SO: 185 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5 CI=5.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LES IMAGES SATELLITES INFRA-ROUGE
CONFIRMENT L'INTENSIFICATION DE DARIAN AVEC UN OEIL DE NOUVEAU BIEN
MARQUE, DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX PLUS FROIDS AUTOUR DU CENTRE ET UNE
TEMPERATURE AU COEUR DE L'OEIL PLUS CHAUDE. DE PLUS SUR L'IMAGE
VISIBLE L'OEIL EST DE NOUVEAU BIEN VISIBLE. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE
EST DONC EN LEGERE HAUSSE AVEC DES VENTS DE 90 KT. DARIAN REDEVIENT
DONC UN CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION:

DARIAN POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST, GUIDE PAR UNE
DORSALE DE MOYENNE A HAUTE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE PLUS AU SUD. SAMEDI,
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT EFFECTUER UN VIRAGE MARQUE VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST OU
LE SUD-EST TOUT EN RALENTISSANT SA PROGRESSION. CE CHANGEMENT DE
TRAJECTOIRE EST PILOTE PAR RETRAIT TEMPORAIRE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE ET LA REPRISE DU FLUX DIRECTEUR PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE AU NORD. EN DA BUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, DARIAN DEVRAIT A
NOUVEAU AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, EN LIEN AVEC LE
GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD. LA PREVISION DU CMRS
EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES
DISPONIBLES. LA DISPERSION EST RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE JUSQU'A SAMEDI
PUIS DEVIENT PLUS IMPORTANTE PAR LA SUITE, DURANT LA PHASE COMPLEXE
DE DOUBLE VIRAGE VERS LE SUD.

LA CONTRAINTE D'EST SEMBLE AVOIR DIMINUE AU COURS DE LA NUIT ET
DARIAN SEMBLE AVOIR REAGI A CETTE BAISSE DE LA CONTRAINTE. LES
CONDITIONS SEMBLENT FAVORABLES A LA POURSUITE D'UNE
RE-INTENSIFICATION AUJOURD'HUI MAIS CELLE-CI POURRA ETRE LIMITE D'ICI
24/36H PAR LE DEPLACEMENT PLUS LENT DU SYSTEME (REFROIDISSEMENT DES
SST) ET AUSSI PAR UNE LEGERE AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE SAMEDI SOIR. A PARTIR DE MARDI, UNE HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT PROFOND COMBINEE A DES INCURSIONS D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE DEVRAIENT CONTINUER A
AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 230658
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/4/20222023
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/23 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 84.3 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 10

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 325 SW: 185 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 70 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/23 18 UTC: 12.6 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SW: 335 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

24H: 2022/12/24 06 UTC: 13.0 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SW: 325 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2022/12/24 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 360 SW: 325 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2022/12/25 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 360 SW: 325 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2022/12/25 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 380 SW: 350 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2022/12/26 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 415 SW: 390 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/12/27 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 490 SW: 400 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2022/12/28 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 445 SW: 345 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 185 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5 CI=5.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGES CONFIRM THE
INTENSIFICATION OF DARIAN WITH A WELL MARKED EYE AGAIN, COLDER CLOUD
TOPS AROUND THE CENTER AND A WARMER TEMPERATURE IN THE HEART OF THE
EYE. MOREOVER ON THE VISIBLE IMAGE THE EYE IS AGAIN WELL VISIBLE. THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED WITH WINDS OF 90 KT. DARIAN
BECOMES AGAIN AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

LITTLE CHANGE ON THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE FORECAST:

DARIAN CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD, GUIDED BY A RIDGE OF MID TO HIGH
TROPOSPHERE LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH. ON SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE A SHARP TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHEAST
WHILE SLOWING ITS PROGRESS. THIS CHANGE IN TRAJECTORY IS DRIVEN BY
THE TEMPORARY WITHDRAWAL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE RESUMPTION
OF THE STEERING FLOW BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. EARLY
NEXT WEEK, DARIAN SHOULD AGAIN BEGIN A SOUTHWESTERLY TURN, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SWELLING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
THE CMRS FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE. THE DISPERSION IS RELATIVELY WEAK UNTIL SATURDAY THEN
BECOMES MORE IMPORTANT AFTERWARDS, DURING THE COMPLEX PHASE OF THE
DOUBLE TURN TO THE SOUTH.

THE EASTERLY CONTRAINT SEEMS TO HAVE DECREASED DURING THE NIGHT AND
DARIAN SEEMS TO HAVE REACTED TO THIS DECREASE. THE CONDITIONS SEEM TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUATION OF A RE-INTENSIFICATION TODAY BUT
THIS COULD BE LIMITED WITHIN 24/36H BY THE SLOWER DISPLACEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM (COOLING OF THE SST) AND ALSO BY A SLIGHT INCREASE OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR ON SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, AN
INCREASE IN DEEP SHEAR COMBINED WITH INCURSIONS OF DRY
MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR AND A DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 230620
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/12/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 23/12/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN) 950 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 84.3 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 175 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/23 AT 18 UTC:
12.6 S / 83.0 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/24 AT 06 UTC:
13.0 S / 82.5 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 230058
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/4/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 23/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.6 S / 85.0 E
(DOUZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 952 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 315 SO: 315 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 80 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/12/2022 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SO: 315 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 185 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 24/12/2022 00 UTC: 12.6 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SO: 335 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 185 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 24/12/2022 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 325 SO: 380 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SO: 195 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 25/12/2022 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 345 SO: 370 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SO: 195 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

60H: 25/12/2022 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 390 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

72H: 26/12/2022 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SO: 400 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/12/2022 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 520 SO: 435 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 75

120H: 28/12/2022 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 490 SO: 380 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0 CI=5.5-

LES VELLEITES DE REPRISE DE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL NE SE SONT PAS
FRANCHEMENT CONCRETISEES SUR LES 6 DERNIERES HEURES. TOUTEFOIS DARIAN
CONTINUE DE PRESENTER DES SIGNES D'INTENSIFICATION AVEC DES SOMMETS
NUAGEUX QUI RESTENT TRES FROIDS AVEC OMNI-PRESENCE D'UN POINT CHAUD.
DE PLUS LES ANIMATIONS SATELLITES MONTRENT CLAIREMENT QUE L'OUTFLOW
EST MIEUX ETABLI DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST, CE QUI EST UN SIGNE QUE LA
CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR EST, EST EN BAISSE. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE
EST LAISSEE A 85 KT EN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES GUIDANCES OBJECTIVES ET
SUBJECTIVES QUI SONT UN PEU EN DESSOUS ET LES VENTS ESTIMES A PRES DE
100 KT (VENT 10 MIN) PAR LE RADIOMETRE AMSR-2 A 1934Z.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION:

DARIAN POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST, GUIDE PAR UNE
DORSALE DE MOYENNE A HAUTE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE PLUS AU SUD. SAMEDI,
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE MARQUE VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST OU LE
SUD-EST TOUT EN RALENTISSANT SA PROGRESSION, SUITE AU RETRAIT
TEMPORAIRE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET LA REPRISE DU FLUX DIRECTEUR
PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD. EN DA BUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, DARIAN DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE
SUD-OUEST, EN LIEN AVEC LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
SUD. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES. LA DISPERSION EST RELATIVEMENT
FAIBLE JUSQU'A SAMEDI PUIS DEVIENT NETTEMENT PLUS IMPORTANTE PAR LA
SUITE, DURANT LA PHASE COMPLEXE DE DOUBLE VIRAGE VERS LE SUD.

LA CONTRAINTE D'EST SEMBLE AVOIR DIMINUE AU COURS DE LA NUIT ET
DARIAN SEMBLE REAGIR A CETTE BAISSE DE LA CONTRAINTE. LES CONDITIONS
SEMBLENT FAVORABLES A UNE RE-INTENSIFICATION AUJOURD'HUI MAIS
CELLE-CI POURRA ETRE LIMITE D'ICI 24/36H PAR LE DEPLACEMENT PLUS LENT
DU SYSTEME (REFROIDISSEMENT DES SST) ET AUSSI PAR UNE LEGERE
AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SAMEDI SOIR. A
PARTIR DE MARDI, UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT PROFOND COMBINEE A DES
INCURSIONS D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
EN BAISSE DEVRAIENT CONTINUER A AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 230058
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/4/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/23 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6 S / 85.0 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 952 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/23 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 315 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2022/12/24 00 UTC: 12.6 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 335 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2022/12/24 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 325 SW: 380 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2022/12/25 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 345 SW: 370 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2022/12/25 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 390 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2022/12/26 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SW: 400 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/12/27 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 520 SW: 435 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75

120H: 2022/12/28 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 490 SW: 380 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.5-

THE PROSPECTS OF A RESUMPTION OF THE EYE PATTERN HAVE NOT REALLY
MATERIALIZED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER, DARIAN CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION WITH CLOUD TOPS THAT REMAIN VERY COLD
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTERMITTENT HOT SPOT. MOREOVER, THE SATELLITE
ANIMATIONS CLEARLY SHOW THAT THE OUTFLOW IS BETTER ESTABLISHED IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, WHICH IS A SIGN THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS
DECREASING. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LEFT AT 85 KT AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE GUIDANCE, WHICH ARE A BIT LOWER,
AND THE WINDS ESTIMATED AT ALMOST 100 KT (10 MIN WIND) BY THE AMSR-2
RADIOMETER AT 1934Z.

LITTLE CHANGE ON THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE FORECAST:

DARIAN CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD, GUIDED BY A MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERE RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH. ON SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN
A SHARP TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHEAST WHILE SLOWING ITS
PROGRESS, FOLLOWING THE TEMPORARY WITHDRAWAL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND THE RESUMPTION OF THE STEERING FLOW BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK, DARIAN SHOULD AGAIN BEGIN A
SOUTHWESTERLY TURN, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SWELLING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE CMRS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THE DISPERSION IS
RELATIVELY WEAK UNTIL SATURDAY THEN BECOMES SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
IMPORTANT THEREAFTER, DURING THE COMPLEX PHASE OF THE DOUBLE TURN TO
THE SOUTH.

THE EASTERLY CONSTRAINT SEEMS TO HAVE DECREASED DURING THE NIGHT AND
DARIAN SEEMS TO REACT TO THIS DECREASE. CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR A RE-INTENSIFICATION TODAY BUT THIS COULD BE LIMITED
WITHIN 24/36H BY THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM (COOLING OF THE
SST) AND ALSO BY A SLIGHT INCREASE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, AN INCREASE IN DEEP SHEAR
COMBINED WITH INCURSIONS OF DRY MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR AND A DECREASING
OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 230025
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/12/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 23/12/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN) 952 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6 S / 85.0 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/23 AT 12 UTC:
12.6 S / 83.5 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/24 AT 00 UTC:
12.6 S / 82.4 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 221850
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/4/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 22/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.8 S / 85.7 E
(DOUZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 952 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 10

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SO: 335 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 185 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 90 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/12/2022 06 UTC: 12.6 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 335 SO: 295 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 185 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 23/12/2022 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SO: 305 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SO: 195 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 24/12/2022 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 335 SO: 370 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SO: 195 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 24/12/2022 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 380 SO: 370 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

60H: 25/12/2022 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 370 SO: 350 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 205 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

72H: 25/12/2022 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 400 SO: 380 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 215 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/12/2022 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 465 SO: 425 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 240 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

120H: 27/12/2022 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 510 SO: 370 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5 CI=5.5-

APRES AVOIR ETE IMPACTE PAR LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR EST ASSEZ FORT
AUJOURD'HUI (CF SSMIS DE 1145Z), LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE MONTRE DES
SIGNES D'AMELIORATION DEPUIS 15Z: LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SONT DEVENUS
TRES FROIDS ET UN OEIL MAL DEFINI EST ENTRAIN DE REAPPARAITRE AU SEIN
DU CDO. ON NOTE AUSSI DANS LES DERNIERES 3H, UNE ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE
IMPORTANTE DANS LE COEUR DU SYSTEME. CES SIGNES D'INTENSIFICATION
SONT ENCORE TROP PRECOCES POUR IMPACTER A LA HAUSSE LES GUIDANCES
D'INTENSITE. L'INTENSITE A 85 KT ACTUELLE EST UN COMPROMIS DES
DERNIERES GUIDANCES SUBJECTIVE ET OBJECTIVE.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION:

DARIAN POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST, GUIDE PAR UNE
DORSALE DE MOYENNE A HAUTE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE PLUS AU SUD. SAMEDI,
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE MARQUE VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST OU LE
SUD-EST TOUT EN RALENTISSANT SA PROGRESSION, SUITE AU RETRAIT
TEMPORAIRE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET LA REPRISE DU FLUX DIRECTEUR
PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD. EN DA BUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, DARIAN DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE
SUD-OUEST, EN LIEN AVEC LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
SUD. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES. LA DISPERSION EST RELATIVEMENT
FAIBLE JUSQU'A SAMEDI PUIS DEVIENT NETTEMENT PLUS IMPORTANTE PAR LA
SUITE, DURANT LA PHASE COMPLEXE DE DOUBLE VIRAGE VERS LE SUD.

LA CONTRAINTE D'EST EST PREVUE BAISSER CE SOIR ET DARIAN SEMBLE
REAGIR A CETTE BAISSE DE LA CONTRAINTE. LES CONDITIONS SEMBLENT
FAVORABLES A UNE RE-INTENSIFICATION A PARTIR DE DEMAIN MAIS QUI
POURRA ETRE LIMITE D'ICI 24/36H PAR LE DEPLACEMENT PLUS LENT DU
SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MARDI, UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT COMBINEE A DES
INCURSIONS D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
EN BAISSE DEVRAIENT CONTINUER A AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 221850
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/4/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 85.7 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 952 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 10

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SW: 335 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 90 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/23 06 UTC: 12.6 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2022/12/23 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SW: 305 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 195 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2022/12/24 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 335 SW: 370 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 195 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2022/12/24 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 380 SW: 370 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2022/12/25 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 370 SW: 350 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2022/12/25 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 400 SW: 380 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/12/26 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 465 SW: 425 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

120H: 2022/12/27 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 510 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=5.5-

AFTER HAVING BEEN IMPACTED BY THE STRONG EASTERN SHEAR TODAY (CF
SSMIS OF 1145Z), THE CLOUD PATTERN IS SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT
SINCE 15Z: THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE BECOME VERY COLD AND AN ILL-DEFINED
EYE IS REAPPEARING WITHIN THE CDO. WE ALSO NOTICE IN THE LAST 3H, AN
IMPORTANT ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER. THESE SIGNS OF
INTENSIFICATION ARE STILL TOO EARLY TO IMPACT THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
THE CURRENT 85 KT INTENSITY IS A COMPROMISE OF THE LAST SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY:

DARIAN CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD, GUIDED BY A MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERE RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH. ON SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN
A SHARP TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHEAST WHILE SLOWING ITS
PROGRESS, FOLLOWING THE TEMPORARY WITHDRAWAL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND THE RESUMPTION OF THE STEERING FLOW BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK, DARIAN SHOULD AGAIN BEGIN A
SOUTHWESTERLY TURN, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THE DISPERSION IS
RELATIVELY WEAK UNTIL SATURDAY THEN BECOMES SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
IMPORTANT THEREAFTER, DURING THE COMPLEX PHASE OF THE DOUBLE TURN TO
THE SOUTH.

THE EASTERLY CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND DARIAN
SEEMS TO REACT TO THIS DECREASE OF THE CONSTRAINT. CONDITIONS SEEM TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR A RE-INTENSIFICATION FROM TOMORROW BUT THIS MAY BE
LIMITED WITHIN 24/36H BY THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. FROM
TUESDAY ONWARDS, AN INCREASE IN SHEAR COMBINED WITH INCURSIONS OF DRY
MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR AND A DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 221837
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/12/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 22/12/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN) 952 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 85.7 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 120 NM AROUND THE CENTER.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/23 AT 06 UTC:
12.6 S / 83.8 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/23 AT 18 UTC:
12.5 S / 82.7 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 221214
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/4/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 22/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.8 S / 86.5 E
(DOUZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SIX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 948 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 405 SO: 350 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 185 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/12/2022 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 350 SO: 315 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 195 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 23/12/2022 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 345 SO: 305 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 185 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 24/12/2022 00 UTC: 12.6 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 345 SO: 325 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SO: 195 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 24/12/2022 12 UTC: 13.4 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 400 SO: 390 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SO: 215 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

60H: 25/12/2022 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 370 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 215 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

72H: 25/12/2022 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 400 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 215 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/12/2022 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 480 SO: 435 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SO: 250 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

120H: 27/12/2022 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 530 SO: 415 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SO: 260 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 70

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LES EFFETS DU CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE
SECTEUR EST SE SONT FAITS DAVANTAGE SENTIR SUR LA STRUCTURE DE
DARIAN, AVEC UN COEUR CONVECTIF PLUS ASYMETRIQUE (CF GMI DE 0549Z),
VISIBLE AUSSI PAR LA FORMATION D'ARCS DE CIRRUS EN AMONT DU
CISAILLEMENT. LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL S'EST AINSI PROGRESSIVEMENT
DEGRADEE, AVEC UN DT AVOISINANT LES 5.0 SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES. DE
PLUS, L'ADT ET LE SATCON INDIQUENT AUSSI UNE BAISSE D'INTENSITE
SENSIBLE DEPUIS HIER (ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES MAINTENANT PROCHES DE
100KT EN VENTS 1MIN). NEANMOINS LA CONVECTION RESTE VIGOUREUSE EN
AMONT DU CISAILLEMENT ET L'ABSENCE D'IMAGES MICRO-ONDES RECENTES
EMPECHE UNE EVALUATION PRECISE DE LA POSSIBLE DESTRUCTURATION DU
COEUR CENTRAL. AINSI, L'INTENSITE EST ABAISSEE A 95KT A 12UTC, MEME
S'IL N'EST PAS EXCLU QU'ELLE SOIT EN REALITE UN PEU PLUS BASSE.

DARIAN POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST, GUIDE PAR UNE
DORSALE DE MOYENNE A HAUTE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE PLUS AU SUD. SAMEDI,
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE MARQUE VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST TOUT
EN RALENTISSANT SA PROGRESSION, SUITE AU RETRAIT TEMPORAIRE DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET LA REPRISE DU FLUX DIRECTEUR PAR LA DORSALE
PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD COMBINEE AVEC UN CUT-OFF AU SUD-OUEST DU
SYSTEME. EN DA BUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, DARIAN DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU
AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, EN LIEN AVEC LE GONFLEMENT DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS
ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES. LA DISPERSION EST
RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE JUSQU'A SAMEDI PUIS DEVIENT NETTEMENT PLUS
IMPORTANTE PAR LA SUITE, DURANT LA PHASE COMPLEXE DE DOUBLE VIRAGE
VERS LE SUD.

DARIAN BENEFICIE D'ASSES BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES, MIS A
PART UNE CONTRAINTE MODEREE DE SECTEUR EST A NORD-EST COMPENSEE EN
PARTIE PAR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT GENERALE DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST
ET PAR UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. EN COURS DE WEEK-END, AVEC LE
PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD, L'ACCROISSEMENT DE
LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE POURRAIT PERMETTRE UN TOUT DERNIER REGAIN
D'INTENSITE AU SYSTEME (MAIS QUI PEUT ETRE LIMITE PAR LE DEPLACEMENT
PLUS LENT DU SYSTEME), AVANT QU'IL NE RENCONTRE EN DA BUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE DES EAUX BEAUCOUP PLUS FRAICHES EN EVOLUANT VERS LE SUD. A
PARTIR DE MARDI, UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT COMBINEE A DES INCURSIONS
D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEVRAIENT CONTINUER A AFFAIBLIR LE
SYSTEME LORS DE SON ELOIGNEMENT VERS DES LATITUDES SUBTROPICALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 221214
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/4/20222023
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 86.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 948 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 405 SW: 350 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/23 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 350 SW: 315 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2022/12/23 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 345 SW: 305 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2022/12/24 00 UTC: 12.6 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 345 SW: 325 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 195 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2022/12/24 12 UTC: 13.4 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 400 SW: 390 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2022/12/25 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SW: 370 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2022/12/25 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 400 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/12/26 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 480 SW: 435 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2022/12/27 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 530 SW: 415 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EFFECTS OF MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR
HAVE BEEN MORE NOTICEABLE ON DARIAN'S STRUCTURE, WITH A MORE
ASYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE CORE (GMI 0549Z), ALSO REFLECTED BY CIRRUS
ARCS DEVELOPPING UPSHEAR. THE EYE PATTERN HAS THUS PROGRESSIVELY
DETERIORATED, WITH A DT CLOSE TO 5.0 ON THE LAST IMAGES. MOREOVER,
ADT AND SATCON ALSO INDICATE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING INTENSITY SINCE
YESTERDAY (OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES NOW CLOSE TO 100KT, 1MIN WINDS).
NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG UPSHEAR AND THE LACK OF
RECENT MICROWAVE PASS PREVENTS A PRECISE ESTMATION OF POSSIBLE
DISRUPTIONS TO THE CENTRAL CORE. DARIAN'S INTENSITY IS THUS LOWERED
TO 95KT AT 12UTC (IT COULD EVEN BE A BIT WEAKER).

DARIAN CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK, GUIDED BY A MID-TO-UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH. AS FROM SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN A SHARP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TURN WHILE SLOWING ITS PROGRESS,
DUE TO TEMPORARY WITHDRAWAL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE STEERING
FLOW THEN BEING DRIVEN BY THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
COMBINED WITH A CUT-OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. EARLY NEXT
WEEK, DARIAN SHOULD RESUME A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN IN CONNECTION WITH
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RSMC'S FORECAST IS
BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. DISPERSION
IS RELATIVELY WEAK UNTIL SATURDAY THEN BECOMES MUCH MORE IMPORTANT
AFTERWARDS, DURING THE SYSTEM'S COMPLEX SOUTHWARD TURN PHASE.

DARIAN IS STILL BENEFITING FROM FAIRLY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
DESPITE SOME MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR, WHICHI IS PARTLY
OFFSET BY THE SYSTEM'S GENERAL WESTWARD MOVEMENT AND BY STRONG
OCEANIC POTENTIAL. DURING THE WEEKEND, A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH SHOULD INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND ALLOW A LAST BOOST IN
ITS INTENSITY (ALTHOUGH SLOWER MOVEMENT COULD LIMIT THAT) BEFORE IT
ENCOUNTERS MUCH COOLER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARDS.
FROM TUESDAY, INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR COULD FURTHER WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM WHILE IT DRIFTS TOWARDS THE SUBTROPICS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 221201
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/12/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 22/12/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN) 948 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 86.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 160 NM AROUND THE CENTER.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/23 AT 00 UTC:
12.5 S / 84.8 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/23 AT 12 UTC:
12.4 S / 83.5 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 220629
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/4/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 22/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.1 S / 87.2 E
(TREIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 445 SO: 405 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/12/2022 18 UTC: 12.8 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 380 SO: 350 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 23/12/2022 06 UTC: 12.8 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 390 SO: 360 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 215 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 23/12/2022 18 UTC: 12.8 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 400 SO: 370 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 215 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 24/12/2022 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 415 SO: 380 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 220 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 24/12/2022 18 UTC: 13.8 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 425 SO: 400 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 230 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 25/12/2022 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 445 SO: 405 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 230 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/12/2022 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 465 SO: 425 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 250 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

120H: 27/12/2022 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 490 SO: 445 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 260 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 80

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5 CI=6.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE DARIAN A
PEU EVOLUE, GARDANT UN OEIL PLUS FROID QU'HIER ET UNE CONVECTION
FLUCTUANTE. LE DT MOYENNE SUR LES 3 DERNIERES HEURES AVOISINE 5.5. LA
TENTATIVE DE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DE L'OEIL INITIEE HIER SOIR NE
SEMBLE PAS AVOIR COMPLETEMENT ABOUTI, AVEC UNE IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES
INDIQUANT LA PROBABLE CONSTITUTION D'UN NOUVEL ANNEAU CONVECTIF ASSEZ
SOLIDE MEME S'IL EST PARTIELLEMENT AFFECTE PAR UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE
DE SECTEUR EST AVOISINANT LES 20/25KT D'APRES LES ANALYSES DU CIMSS.
L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE L'ANALYSE
DVORAK ET DES DONNEES OBJECTIVES MONTRANT UNE ASSEZ FORTE DISPERSION.

DARIAN POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST,
GUIDE PAR UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE A HAUTE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE PLUS AU
SUD. EN DEBUT DE WEEK-END, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE
MARQUE VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST TOUT EN RALENTISSANT SA PROGRESSION, SUITE
AU RETRAIT TEMPORAIRE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET LA REPRISE DU
FLUX DIRECTEUR PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD COMBINEE
AVEC UN CUT-OFF AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. EN DA BUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, DARIAN DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, EN LIEN AVEC LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE
LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES. LA DISPERSION EST RELATIVEMENT
FAIBLE JUSQU'EN DA BUT DE WEEK-END PUIS DEVIENT NETTEMENT PLUS
IMPORTANTE PAR LA SUITE, DURANT LA PHASE COMPLEXE DE VIRAGE DU
SYSTEME VERS LE SUD.

DARIAN BENEFICIE TOUJOURS DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES, MIS
A PART UNE CONTRAINTE MODEREE DE SECTEUR EST A NORD-EST COMPENSEE EN
PARTIE PAR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT GENERALE DU SYSTEME VERS
L'OUEST, UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. EN DEBUT DE WEEK-END, AVEC LE
PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD, L'ACCROISSEMENT DE
LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE POURRAIT PERMETTRE UN TOUT DERNIER REGAIN
D'INTENSITE AU SYSTEME, AVANT QU'IL NE RENCONTRE EN DA BUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE DES EAUX BEAUCOUP PLUS FRAICHES (POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE
MOINS FORT CUMULE A DE L'UPWELLING) EN EVOLUANT PLUS LENTEMENT EN
DIRECTION DU SUD. CELA POURRAIT AFFAIBLIR DURABLEMENT LE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 220629
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/4/20222023
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/22 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1 S / 87.2 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 445 SW: 405 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/22 18 UTC: 12.8 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 380 SW: 350 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2022/12/23 06 UTC: 12.8 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 390 SW: 360 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2022/12/23 18 UTC: 12.8 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 400 SW: 370 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 215 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2022/12/24 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 415 SW: 380 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2022/12/24 18 UTC: 13.8 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 425 SW: 400 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 230 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2022/12/25 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 445 SW: 405 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 230 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/12/26 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 465 SW: 425 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 250 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

120H: 2022/12/27 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 490 SW: 445 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 260 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 80

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5 CI=6.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, DARIAN'S EYE PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE,
KEEPING A COLDER EYE THAN YESTERDAY ALTOGETHER WITH FLUCTUATING
CONVECTION. THE AVERAGE DT OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS IS 5.5. THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE ATTEMPT INITIATED LAST NIGHT DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE
BEEN FULLY SUCCESSFUL, WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATING THE PROBABLE
CONSTITUTION OF A NEW CONVECTIVE RING WHICH LOOKS QUITE SOLID EVEN IF
IT IS PARTIALLY AFFECTED BY MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR AROUND 20/25KT
ACCORDING TO CIMSS"S ANALYSIS. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN DVORAK ANALYSIS AND FAIRLY DISPERSED OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES.

DARIAN CONTINUES ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, GUIDED BY A
MID-TO-UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH. EARLY THIS WEEKEND,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN A SHARP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TURN WHILE
SLOWING ITS PROGRESS, DUE TO TEMPORARY WITHDRAWAL OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND THE RESUMPTION OF THE STEERING FLOW BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH COMBINED WITH A CUT-OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM. EARLY NEXT WEEK, DARIAN SHOULD AGAIN START A WEST-SOUTHWEST
TURN, IN CONNECTION WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE RSMC'S FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. DISPERSION IS RELATIVELY WEAK UNTIL THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND THEN BECOMES MUCH MORE IMPORTANT AFTERWARDS, DURING
THE SYSTEM'S COMPLEX SOUTHWARD TURN PHASE.

DARIAN IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, EXCEPT
FROM A MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR STRESS, PARTLY
COMPENSATED BY THE SYSTEM'S GENERAL WESTWARD MOVEMENT AND STRONG
OCEANIC POTENTIAL. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND, A MID-TROPOSPHERE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH SHOULD INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND ALLOW A LAST
BOOST IN ITS INTENSITY BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS MUCH COOLER WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK (LOWER ENERGY POTENTIAL COMBINED WITH UPWELLING) AS IT
MOVES MORE SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS. THIS COULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DURABLY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 220616
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/12/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 22/12/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1 S / 87.2 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 180 NM AROUND THE CENTER.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/22 AT 18 UTC:
12.8 S / 85.7 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/23 AT 06 UTC:
12.8 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 220030
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/4/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 22/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.3 S / 88.4 E
(TREIZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 938 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 25

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 445 SO: 405 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 220 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/12/2022 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 360 SO: 335 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 205 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 23/12/2022 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 360 SO: 325 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 23/12/2022 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 360 SO: 335 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65

48H: 24/12/2022 00 UTC: 13.1 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SO: 205 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

60H: 24/12/2022 12 UTC: 13.6 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SO: 390 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 220 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

72H: 25/12/2022 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 390 SO: 380 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 215 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/12/2022 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 425 SO: 400 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 230 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 120 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

120H: 27/12/2022 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 555 SO: 465 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SO: 270 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5+ CI=6.5-

AU COURS DE LA NUIT, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A CONTINUE A SE
DEGRADER TEMPORAIREMENT, AVEC UN OEIL QUI S'EST TANTOT REFROIDI TOUT
EN DEVENANT MOINS NET. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIF A EGALEMENT FLUCTUE DANS
LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD ET EST. LE CISAILLEMENT PROFOND N'EST SANS DOUTE
PAS ETRANGER A CELA, PUISQU'IL S'EST LEGEREMENT RENFORCE PEU APRES
18Z SELON LES DONNA ES DU CIMSS (22KT DE SECTEUR ENE). POUR AUTANT,
LES ANALYSES NE SUGGERENT PAS DE TILT DE LA STRUCTURE SUR LA
VERTICALE, EU EGARD A LA ROBUSTESSE DU SYSTEME. L'ESTIMATION
D'INTENSITE EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS ENTRE L'ANALYSE DVORAK
SUBJECTIVE MOYENNE SUR 3H ET LES DERNIERES DONNEES OBJECTIVES ET
SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES. EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNA ES MICRO-ONDES
RECENTES IL EST DIFFICILE DE JUGER DE LA PROGRESSION DU CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL EN COURS. TOUTEFOIS LA GPM DE 1822Z
SUGGERE LA FORMATION DE BANDES PLUVIEUSES COMPACTES A L'EXTERIEUR DU
MUR DE L'OEIL DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST.

DARIAN POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST,
GUIDE PAR UNE DORASALE DE MOYENNE A HAUTE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE PLUS AU
SUD. EN DEBUT DE WEEK-END, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE
MARQUE VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST TOUT EN RALENTISSANT SA PROGRESSION, SUITE
AU RETRAIT TEMPORAIRE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS L'OUEST ET LA
REPRISE DU FLUX DIRECTEUR PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD.
EN DA BUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, DARIAN DEVRAIT A NOUVEAU AMORCER UN
VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, EN LIEN AVEC LA REPRISE D'UN FLUX
D'EST GENERE PAR LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LA
PREVISION DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES. LA DISPERSION DES MEMBRES DE LA PREVISION
D'ENSEMBLE EUROPEENNE ET AMERICAINE EST RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE JUSQU'EN
DA BUT DE WEEK-END INDUISANT UNE ASSEZ BONNE CONFIANCE SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME. CETTE CONFIANCE EST PLUS FAIBLE A COMPTER DU
DA BUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, AVEC UNE DISPERSION NETTEMENT PLUS
IMPORTANTE.

DARIAN BENEFICIE TOUJOURS DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES, MIS
A PART UNE CONTRAINTE MODEREE A FORTE DE NORD-EST (20KT SELON LES
DONNEES DU CIMSS) COMPENSEE EN PARTIE PAR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT
GENERALE DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST, UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, AINSI
QU'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALITUDE CA TE POLAIRE. D'ICI LES 24 A 36
PROCHAINES HEURES, LA CONTRAINTE DE NORD-EST RESTERA PRESENTE CE QUI
POURRAIT AFFAIBLIR A LA MARGE LE SYSTEME DANS SON DEPLACEMENT VERS
L'OUEST. L'EVENTUELLE PHASE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL,
POURRAIT EGALEMENT RENDRE DIFFICILE LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE DU
SYSTEME. EN DEBUT DE WEEK-END, AVEC LE PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE AU SUD, L'ACCROISSEMENT DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
POURRAIT PERMETTRE UN TOUT DERNIER REGAIN D'INTENSITE AU SYSTEME,
AVANT QU'IL NE RENCONTRER EN DA BUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE DES EAUX
BEAUCOUP PLUS FRAICHES (POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE MOINS FORT CUMULE A DE
L'UPWELLING) EN EVOLUANT PLUS LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD. CELA
POURRAIT AFFAIBLIR DURABLEMENT LE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 220030
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/4/20222023
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/22 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3 S / 88.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 938 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 25

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 445 SW: 405 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/22 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 360 SW: 335 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2022/12/23 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 360 SW: 325 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2022/12/23 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 360 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

48H: 2022/12/24 00 UTC: 13.1 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 205 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2022/12/24 12 UTC: 13.6 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SW: 390 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2022/12/25 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 390 SW: 380 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 215 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/12/26 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 425 SW: 400 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 230 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

120H: 2022/12/27 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 555 SW: 465 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 100 SW: 150 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5+ CI=6.5-

OVER THE NIGHT, THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUED TO DEGRADE TEMPORARILY,
WITH AN EYE THAT COOLED DOWN BUT BECAME LESS CLEAR. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALSO FLUCTUATED IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
DEEP SHEAR IS PROBABLY NOT UNRELATED TO THIS, SINCE IT HAS SLIGHTLY
STRENGTHENED SHORTLY AFTER 18Z ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS DATA (22KT FROM
ENE). HOWEVER, THE ANALYSES DO NOT SUGGEST A TILT OF THE STRUCTURE ON
THE VERTICAL, GIVEN THE ROBUSTNESS OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE 3H AVERAGE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ANALYSIS (FMEE) AND THE LATEST AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE DATA. IN THE ABSENCE OF RECENT MICROWAVE DATA IT IS
DIFFICULT TO JUDGE THE PROGRESS OF THE CURRENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE (ERC). HOWEVER THE GPM OF 1822Z SUGGESTS THE FORMATION OF
COMPACT RAIN BANDS OUTSIDE THE EYEWALL IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

DARIAN CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, GUIDED BY A MID TO HIGH
TROPOSPHERIC DORASPHERE LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH. EARLY THIS WEEKEND,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN A SHARP TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHILE
SLOWING ITS PROGRESS, FOLLOWING THE TEMPORARY RETREAT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE RESUMPTION OF THE STEERING FLOW
BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK, DARIAN
SHOULD AGAIN BEGIN A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, IN CONNECTION WITH
THE RESUMPTION OF AN EASTERLY FLOW GENERATED BY THE SWELLING OF THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THE DISPERSION OF THE MEMBERS OF
THE EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST IS RELATIVELY LOW UNTIL
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND INDUCING A FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE ON THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THIS CONFIDENCE IS WEAKER FROM THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH A MUCH LARGER DISPERSION.

DARIAN IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, APART
FROM A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT (20KT ACCORDING TO
CIMSS DATA) PARTLY OFFSET BY THE GENERAL SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM TOWARDS THE WEST, A STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, AS WELL AS A
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE POLAR SIDE. IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS,
THE NORTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT WILL REMAIN, WHICH COULD WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM AT THE MARGIN IN ITS MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE WEST. THE POSSIBLE
PHASE OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD ALSO MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, THE
INCREASE OF THE ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE COULD ALLOW A VERY LAST
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS MUCH COOLER
WATERS (LESS ENERGETIC POTENTIAL CUMULATED WITH UPWELLING) AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WHILE EVOLVING MORE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH.
THIS COULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DURABLY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 211836
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/4/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 21/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.5 S / 89.1 E
(TREIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.5/W 1.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 939 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 20

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 445 SO: 405 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 220 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/12/2022 06 UTC: 13.2 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 350 SO: 315 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 195 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 22/12/2022 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SO: 325 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 205 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 23/12/2022 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 360 SO: 325 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 23/12/2022 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 370 SO: 350 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 215 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

60H: 24/12/2022 06 UTC: 13.4 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 380 SO: 390 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SO: 220 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

72H: 24/12/2022 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 390 SO: 390 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 215 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/12/2022 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 415 SO: 370 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 230 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 120 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 65

120H: 26/12/2022 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 500 SO: 465 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SO: 270 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 100 SO: 140 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5+ CI=6.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE
DARIAN S'EST LEGEREMENT DEGRADEE AVEC UN OEIL QUI S'EST REFROIDI
GRADUELLEMENT AINSI QUE DES TEMPERATURES DE SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI ONT
FLUCTUA . L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DE DVORAK, MOYENNEE SUR LES 3 DERNIA
RES HEURES TOMBE A 5.5+, CE QUI EST CONFORME AU MET/PT AINSI QU'A
UNE PASSE SMAP DE 12Z DONNANT DES VENTS MOYENS DE L'ORDRE DE 95KT.
CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT POURRAIT S'EXPLIQUER PAR LA MISE EN PLACE
PROGRESSIVE D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL COMME LE
SUGGERE L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE AMSR2 DE 0759Z OU ENCORE LA SSMIS DE
0947Z.

DARIAN VA POURSUIVRE SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST, GUIDE
PAR UNE DORASALE DE MOYENNE A HAUTE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE PLUS AU SUD.
EN DEBUT DE WEEK-END, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE MARQUE
VERS LE SUD, AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS L'OUEST
ET LA REPRISE DU FLUX DIRECTEUR PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU
NORD. EN DA BUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, DARIAN DEVRAIT AMORCER A
NOUVEAU UN VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST TOUT EN RALENTISSANT SA COURSE, EN
LIEN AVEC LA REPRISE D'UN FLUX D'EST GENERE PAR LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE.

DARIAN BENEFICIE ACTUELLEMENT DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES,
MIS A PART UNE FORTE CONTRAINTE DE NORD-EST (20KT SELON LES DONNEES
DU CIMSS) COMPENSEE TOUTEFOIS PAR LE PROPRE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME,
UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, AINSI QU'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALITUDE
CA TE POLAIRE. D'ICI LES 24 A 36 PROCHAINES HEURES, LA CONTRAINTE DE
NORD-EST RESTERA PRESENTE CE QUI POURRAIT AFFAIBLIR A LA MARGE LE
SYSTEME DANS SON DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST. EN DEBUT DE WEEK-END, AVEC
LE PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD, LA DIVERGENCE
POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT AMELIORER L'INTENSITE DE DARIAN. EN FIN DE
WEEK-END / DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, DANS SON RALENTISSEMENT,
DARIAN POURRAIT RENCONTRER DES EAUX BEAUCOUP PLUS FRAICHES (POTENTIEL
ENERGETIQUE MOINS FORT CUMULE A DE L'UPWELLING) EN EVOLUANT AU SUD,
CE QUI POURRAIT AFFAIBLIR DURABLEMENT LE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 211836
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/4/20222023
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/21 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 89.1 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.5/W 1.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 939 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 445 SW: 405 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/22 06 UTC: 13.2 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 350 SW: 315 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 195 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2022/12/22 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SW: 325 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 205 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2022/12/23 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 360 SW: 325 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2022/12/23 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 370 SW: 350 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 215 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2022/12/24 06 UTC: 13.4 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 380 SW: 390 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 220 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2022/12/24 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 390 SW: 390 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 215 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/12/25 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 415 SW: 370 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 230 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 65

120H: 2022/12/26 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 500 SW: 465 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 270 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5+ CI=6.5-

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, DARIAN'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED
SLIGHTLY WITH A GRADUALLY COOLING EYE AND FLUCTUATING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES. THE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS , AVERAGED OVER THE LAST
3 HOURS FALLS TO 5.5+, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MET/PT AS WELL AS
A 12Z SMAP PASS GIVING AVERAGE WINDS SPEED OF ABOUT 95KT. THIS
WEAKENING COULD BE EXPLAINED BY THE PROGRESSIVE ONSET OF A EYEWELL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS SUGGESTED BY THE 0759Z AMSR2 OR THE 0947Z SSMIS.

DARIAN WILL CONTINUE ITS TRAJECTORY WESTWARDS, GUIDED BY A MID TO
HIGH TROPOSPHERE RIDGE LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH. EARLY THIS WEEKEND, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN A SHARP TURN SOUTHWARD, WITH THE SHIFT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE RESUMPTION OF THE STEERING FLOW
BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK, DARIAN
SHOULD AGAIN START A WESTWARD TURN WHILE SLOWING DOWN, IN CONNECTION
WITH THE RESUMPTION OF AN EASTERLY FLOW GENERATED BY THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

DARIAN IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
APART FROM A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT (20KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS
DATA) COMPENSATED HOWEVER BY THE SYSTEM'S OWN DISPLACEMENT, A STRONG
OCEANIC POTENTIAL, AS WELL AS A GOOD POLAR DIVERGENCE. IN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS, THE NORTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT WILL REMAIN PRESENT WHICH
COULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM IN ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT AT THE MARGIN. AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, THE DIVERGENCE COULD TEMPORARILY IMPROVE THE
INTENSITY OF DARIAN. AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND/BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK, IN ITS SLOWING DOWN, DARIAN COULD MEET MUCH COOLER WATERS (LESS
ENERGETIC POTENTIAL CUMULATED WITH UPWELLING) WHILE MOVING SOUTH,
WHICH COULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DURABLY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 211824
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/12/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 21/12/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN) 939 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 89.1 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLS WITHIN 100 MIN AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING TO 260 NM IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/22 AT 06 UTC:
13.2 S / 87.6 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/22 AT 18 UTC:
13.1 S / 86.0 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 211239
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/4/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 21/12/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.7 S / 90.0 E
(TREIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DIX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 7.0/7.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 920 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 120 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 18

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SO: 325 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 215 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/12/2022 00 UTC: 13.3 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SO: 305 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 185 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 22/12/2022 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SO: 315 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 185 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 23/12/2022 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SO: 325 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 195 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 23/12/2022 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SO: 335 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 205 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 24/12/2022 00 UTC: 13.3 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SO: 345 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 24/12/2022 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 345 SO: 350 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 215 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/12/2022 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 370 SO: 380 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 220 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

120H: 26/12/2022 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 390 SO: 400 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SO: 240 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 90

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
DURANT LES DERNIERES HEURES, LE SYSTEME DARIAN S'EST RAPPROCHE DU
90E, ET EST EN TRAIN DE QUITTER LA ZONE DE RESPONSABILITE
AUSTRALIENNE. LE SYSTEME EST DONC MAINTENANT SUIVI PAR LE CMRS DE LA
REUNION.
LE SYSTEME A POURSUIVI SON INTENSIFICATION PROGRESSIVE, POUR
ATTEINDRE LE STADE INFERIEUR DE CTTI EN COURS DE MATINEE.
SELON LES DERNIERES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 DE 0759Z, LE SYSTEME
PRESENTE UNE STRUCTURE SEMBLANT ANNONCE UN PREMIER CYCLE DE L'OEIL,
AVEC UN SECOND MUR DE L'OEIL EXTERIEUR SE FORMANT AUTOUR DU MUR
INTERIEUR PARFAITEMENT CIRCULAIRE EN 37 COMME EN 89GHZ.

DARIAN EST PREVU POURSUIVRE GLOBALLEMENT EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST
PENDANT LES TROIS PROCHAINES JOURS, JUSQU'A VENDREDI COMPRIS, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALES DE MOYENNE TROPOPAUSE AU SUD.
A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG PAR LE SUD AFFAIBLIT LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ALORS D'UNE DORSALE SE CONSTRUIT AU NORD EST
PUIS AU NORD DU SYSTEME, OR.LA TRAJECTOIRE RALENTI PUIS S'ORIENTE AU
SUD JUSQU'A LUNDI.

POSITIONNE SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE, LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE DE BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DURANT TOUTES LE PERIODE, AVEC MEME A
PARTIR DE SAMEDI L'ETABLISSEMENT D'UN BON CANAL D'EVACUATION POLAIRE.
NEANMOINS, AU DELA DE SAMEDI, LE DEPLACEMENT PLUS LENT DU SYSTEME AU
DESSUS D'EAUX AU POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE MOINS IMPORTANT DEVRAIT
PROVOQUER UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 211239
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/4/20222023
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN)

2.A POSITION 2022/12/21 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7 S / 90.0 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
NINETY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0/7.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 920 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 120 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 18

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 325 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 215 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/12/22 00 UTC: 13.3 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 305 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 185 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2022/12/22 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 315 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2022/12/23 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 325 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2022/12/23 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 335 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2022/12/24 00 UTC: 13.3 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 345 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2022/12/24 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 345 SW: 350 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/12/25 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 370 SW: 380 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2022/12/26 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 390 SW: 400 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 240 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST HOURS, THE DARIAN SYSTEM HAS APPROACHED THE 90TH, AND
IS LEAVING THE AUSTRALIAN AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. THE SYSTEM IS NOW
FOLLOWED BY THE CMRS OF REUNION.
THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED ITS PROGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION, TO REACH
THE LOWER STAGE OF CTTI DURING THE MORNING.
ACCORDING TO THE LAST AMSR2 MICROWAVE DATA OF 0759Z, THE SYSTEM
PRESENTS A STRUCTURE SEEMING TO ANNOUNCE A FIRST EYE CYCLE, WITH A
SECOND OUTER EYE WALL FORMING AROUND THE INNER WALL PERFECTLY
CIRCULAR IN 37 AS IN 89GHZ.

DARIAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS, THROUGH FRIDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-TROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH.
FROM SATURDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH WEAKENS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE NORTH EAST AND THEN
TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, BUT THE TRAJECTORY SLOWS DOWN AND THEN
TURNS TO THE SOUTH UNTIL MONDAY.

POSITIONED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE, THE SYSTEM BENEFITS FROM GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DURING THE WHOLE PERIOD, WITH EVEN FROM
SATURDAY THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A GOOD POLAR EVACUATION CHANNEL.
NEVERTHELESS, BEYOND SATURDAY, THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER
WATERS WITH LESS ENERGY POTENTIAL SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 211220
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/12/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 21/12/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (DARIAN) 920 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7 S / 90.0 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
NINETY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLS WITHIN 100 MIN AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING TO 130 MIN IN THE
SOUTHERN SECTOR AND TO 180 MIN IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/120 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/12/22 AT 00 UTC:
13.3 S / 88.5 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2022/12/22 AT 12 UTC:
13.1 S / 87.0 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 190900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 221219080254
2022121906 05S DARIAN 003 01 135 03 SATL 040
T000 123S 0934E 055 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 127S 0937E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 131S 0937E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 135S 0934E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 138S 0928E 055 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 140S 0905E 055 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 105 SE QD 100 SW QD 065 NW QD
T096 143S 0884E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 151S 0866E 060 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 12.3S 93.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 93.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 12.7S 93.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.1S 93.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.5S 93.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 13.8S 92.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.0S 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.3S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.1S 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 93.5E.
19DEC22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
205 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.
//
0522121106 96S 959E 15
0522121112 97S 965E 15
0522121118 99S 971E 15
0522121200 101S 977E 25
0522121206 106S 977E 25
0522121212 108S 974E 25
0522121218 109S 970E 25
0522121300 107S 966E 25
0522121306 105S 962E 25
0522121312 103S 955E 25
0522121318 105S 952E 25
0522121400 107S 948E 25
0522121406 108S 940E 25
0522121412 102S 926E 25
0522121418 96S 916E 25
0522121500 88S 918E 30
0522121506 86S 924E 30
0522121512 83S 932E 30
0522121518 84S 939E 25
0522121600 86S 944E 25
0522121606 88S 948E 25
0522121612 92S 950E 25
0522121618 97S 945E 25
0522121700 102S 937E 25
0522121706 107S 934E 25
0522121712 113S 932E 25
0522121718 116S 931E 25
0522121800 117S 929E 30
0522121806 118S 927E 35
0522121812 119S 928E 40
0522121818 120S 930E 45
0522121900 121S 932E 50
0522121906 123S 934E 55
0522121906 123S 934E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 12.3S 93.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 93.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 12.7S 93.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.1S 93.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.5S 93.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 13.8S 92.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.0S 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.3S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.1S 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 93.5E.
19DEC22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
205 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 182100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 221218191035
2022121818 05S DARIAN 002 01 125 04 SATL 030
T000 121S 0931E 045 R034 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 100 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 126S 0935E 055 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 129S 0936E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 133S 0937E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 138S 0934E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 142S 0921E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 145S 0894E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 157S 0843E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 12.1S 93.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 93.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 12.6S 93.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 12.9S 93.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.3S 93.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.8S 93.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 14.2S 92.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 14.5S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.7S 84.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 93.2E.
18DEC22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
225 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND
192100Z.//
0522121106 96S 959E 15
0522121112 97S 965E 15
0522121118 99S 971E 15
0522121200 101S 977E 25
0522121206 106S 977E 25
0522121212 108S 974E 25
0522121218 109S 970E 25
0522121300 107S 966E 25
0522121306 105S 962E 25
0522121312 103S 955E 25
0522121318 105S 952E 25
0522121400 107S 948E 25
0522121406 108S 940E 25
0522121412 102S 926E 25
0522121418 96S 916E 25
0522121500 88S 918E 30
0522121506 86S 924E 30
0522121512 83S 932E 30
0522121518 84S 939E 25
0522121600 86S 944E 25
0522121606 88S 948E 25
0522121612 92S 950E 25
0522121618 97S 945E 25
0522121700 102S 937E 25
0522121706 107S 934E 25
0522121712 113S 932E 25
0522121718 116S 931E 25
0522121800 117S 929E 30
0522121806 118S 927E 35
0522121812 119S 928E 40
0522121818 121S 931E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 12.1S 93.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 93.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 12.6S 93.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 12.9S 93.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.3S 93.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.8S 93.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 14.2S 92.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 14.5S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.7S 84.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 93.2E.
18DEC22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
225 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND
192100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 180900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05S SIO 221218080724
2022121806 05S DARIAN 001 01 225 03 SATL 040
T000 120S 0927E 035 R034 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 123S 0929E 045 R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 127S 0934E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 131S 0939E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 135S 0942E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 141S 0940E 045 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 145S 0927E 040 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 151S 0907E 045 R034 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 075 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 12.0S 92.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 92.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 12.3S 92.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 12.7S 93.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 13.1S 93.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.5S 94.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.1S 94.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.5S 92.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 15.1S 90.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 92.8E.
18DEC22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
240 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.
//
0522121106 96S 959E 15
0522121112 97S 965E 15
0522121118 99S 971E 15
0522121200 101S 977E 25
0522121206 106S 977E 25
0522121212 108S 974E 25
0522121218 109S 970E 25
0522121300 107S 966E 25
0522121306 105S 962E 25
0522121312 103S 955E 25
0522121318 105S 952E 25
0522121400 107S 948E 25
0522121406 108S 940E 25
0522121412 102S 926E 25
0522121418 96S 916E 25
0522121500 88S 918E 30
0522121506 86S 924E 30
0522121512 83S 932E 30
0522121518 84S 939E 25
0522121600 86S 944E 25
0522121606 88S 948E 25
0522121612 92S 950E 25
0522121618 97S 945E 25
0522121700 102S 937E 25
0522121706 107S 934E 25
0522121712 113S 932E 25
0522121718 116S 931E 25
0522121800 118S 929E 30
0522121806 120S 927E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171752ZDEC2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 12.0S 92.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 92.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 12.3S 92.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 12.7S 93.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 13.1S 93.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.5S 94.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.1S 94.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.5S 92.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 15.1S 90.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 92.8E.
18DEC22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
240 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 171800).
//
NNNN

>

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