Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for MARTIN-22 in Greenland, Ireland, United Kingdom from 01 Nov 2022 15:00 UTC to 03 Nov 2022 21:00 UTC

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Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARTIN-22

in Greenland, Ireland, United Kingdom

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

03/11 20:36 WTNT41KNHC032033

03/11 20:35 WTNT31KNHC032032

03/11 20:35 WTNT21KNHC032032

03/11 14:44 WTNT41KNHC031443

03/11 14:43 WTNT31KNHC031442

03/11 14:43 WTNT21KNHC031441

03/11 09:00 WTNT41KNHC030858

03/11 08:56 WTNT31KNHC030854

03/11 08:54 WTNT21KNHC030852

03/11 02:52 WTNT41KNHC030249

03/11 02:51 WTNT31KNHC030248

03/11 02:50 WTNT21KNHC030247

02/11 20:49 WTNT41KNHC022046

02/11 20:48 WTNT31KNHC022045

02/11 20:48 WTNT21KNHC022045

02/11 16:11 WTNT80EGRR021611

02/11 14:54 WTNT41KNHC021451

02/11 14:53 WTNT31KNHC021450

02/11 14:53 WTNT21KNHC021450

02/11 08:49 WTNT41KNHC020846

02/11 08:45 WTNT31KNHC020842

02/11 08:45 WTNT21KNHC020841

02/11 02:46 WTNT41KNHC020243

02/11 02:45 WTNT21KNHC020240

02/11 02:44 WTNT31KNHC020241

01/11 20:58 WTNT41KNHC012055

01/11 20:57 WTNT21KNHC012054

01/11 20:56 WTNT31KNHC012055

01/11 15:02 WTNT41KNHC011500

01/11 15:01 WTNT21KNHC011458

01/11 14:59 WTNT31KNHC011457

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 032033
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Martin Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
900 PM GMT Thu Nov 03 2022

ASCAT-C data that was not available until after the issuance of the
last advisory, but was valid at 1317 UTC, showed that Martin likely
became frontal earlier today and the system no longer has a
well-defined circulation. In addition, both TAFB and SAB evaluated
the system as extratropical at 1800 UTC. Therefore, Martin is now
classified as post-tropical and this will be the last NHC advisory.

While Martin does not currently appear to have a well-defined
center, the powerful post-tropical cyclone is expected to redevelop
a well-defined center as it occludes over the next 12 to 24 h.
Martin is moving at a remarkable clip of 50 kt, but should begin to
slow down soon and turn north-northwestward during the next few
hours. After that, the cyclone is forecast to move relatively slowly
on Friday before picking up speed toward the east-southeast or east
through the early weekend. Martin's maximum winds are still forecast
to slowly decrease over the next few days, however the combination
of Martin and other non-tropical low pressure systems are still
expected to produce hazardous wind and seas over a very wide area of
the North Atlantic for the next couple of days.

Additional information on marine hazards can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, the UK Met
Office, and Meteo France. Links to each product are provided below.

* National Weather Service: AWIPS Header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header
FZNT01 KWPC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
* UK Met Office: WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at
www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high
-seas-forecast/
* Meteo France: WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 50.5N 34.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 04/0600Z 55.0N 35.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 04/1800Z 56.5N 35.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 05/0600Z 56.5N 31.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 05/1800Z 55.5N 25.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 06/0600Z 55.0N 17.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 032032
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Martin Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
900 PM GMT Thu Nov 03 2022

...POST-TROPICAL MARTIN CAUSING STRONG WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...50.5N 34.5W
ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM NNW OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM ENE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 58 MPH...93 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Martin
was located near latitude 50.5 North, longitude 34.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 58
mph (93 km/h). A slower northward to north-northwestward motion is
expected tonight, followed by a much slower turn toward the east on
Friday. An eastward to east-southeastward motion is then
anticipated into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Martin's peak sustained winds will slowly decrease over the
next few days, but it will continue to produce strong winds over a
very large area well into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 520
miles (835 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by post-tropical Martin will likely spread
across a large portion of the high-latitude North Atlantic basin,
affecting portions of Atlantic Canada, the Azores, and the Atlantic
coast of Europe by the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
Meteo France, and the UK Met Office. National Weather Service
forecasts are available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header
FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and are available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2. High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office can be
found under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast/.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 032032
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARTIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162022
2100 UTC THU NOV 03 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 50.5N 34.5W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 50 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
34 KT.......300NE 350SE 450SW 450NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 600SE 840SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 50.5N 34.5W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 49.0N 35.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 55.0N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT...130NE 150SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...350NE 400SE 450SW 450NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 56.5N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...110NE 140SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...350NE 400SE 450SW 350NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 56.5N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 100SE 100SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 400SE 450SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 55.5N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT... 0NE 350SE 350SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 55.0N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 350SE 300SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 50.5N 34.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW...AND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21
EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 031443
TCDAT1

Hurricane Martin Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
300 PM GMT Thu Nov 03 2022

Martin is nearing the completion of its extratropical transition,
which will likely conclude in the next few hours. Although the
cyclone has maintained some inner-core convection, satellite
imagery indicates that its center is beginning to get stretched out
as it becomes a frontal cyclone. There is also no longer any
indication of an eye-like feature in recent microwave or infrared
imagery. Martin's hybrid structure adds uncertainty to the
intensity estimate, since techniques like Dvorak weren't
designed for cyclones that are becoming frontal. Therefore, even
though most of the satellite-based intensity estimates have
decreased over the past 6 hours, the estimated maximum winds are
held at 75 kt since baroclinic processes are believed to be
supporting the maintenance of intensity of the cyclone at this time.

Martin is moving at a remarkably fast forward speed, with an
initial motion of 035/42 kt. Once it is post-tropical, Martin is
forecast to take a northward turn and begin slowing down as it
interacts with another non-tropical system to its northwest. Martin
is expected to become a very large and powerful extratropical
cyclone during this time, with most global models forecasting a
minimum pressure between the high 920s and mid 930s (mb). After a
day of relatively slow movement, an occluded and slowly weakening
post-tropical Martin should begin to move eastward on Saturday. By
Sunday or Sunday night, the cyclone is forecast to have weakened
enough to open into a trough embedded within a broad low over the
far north Atlantic. The track and intensity forecasts are heavily
based on a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global models, but it's worth
noting that other models like the HWRF and UKMET support the same
general evolution of Martin through the weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 45.6N 37.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 51.4N 34.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 04/1200Z 56.0N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 05/0000Z 56.0N 34.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 05/1200Z 54.5N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 06/0000Z 54.0N 20.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/1200Z 55.0N 14.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 031442
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Martin Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
300 PM GMT Thu Nov 03 2022

...LARGE AND POWERFUL MARTIN FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL OVER
THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.6N 37.9W
ABOUT 765 MI...1235 KM NW OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM E OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 48 MPH...78 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Martin was located
near latitude 45.6 North, longitude 37.9 West. Martin is moving
toward the northeast near 48 mph (78 km/h). A turn toward the north
at a slightly slower forward speed is expected this evening.
Martin's forward motion is forecast to slow down substantially on
Friday. A general east to east-southeastward motion is then
forecast by Friday night, which will likely continue through the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Martin is forecast to become a very powerful post-tropical
cyclone within the next few hours. Martin's peak sustained winds
will likely begin to decrease on Friday, but it will continue to
produce strong winds over a very large area well into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 520
miles (835 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Martin when it become a post-tropical
cyclone will likely spread across a large portion of the
high-latitude North Atlantic basin, affecting portions of Atlantic
Canada, the Azores, and the Atlantic coast of Europe by the weekend.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products form your local weather
office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 031441
TCMAT1

HURRICANE MARTIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162022
1500 UTC THU NOV 03 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.6N 37.9W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 42 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
34 KT.......300NE 350SE 450SW 450NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 420SE 540SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.6N 37.9W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.6N 38.8W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 51.4N 34.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
50 KT...130NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
34 KT...350NE 400SE 450SW 450NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 56.0N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT...110NE 160SE 140SW 90NW.
34 KT...400NE 450SE 450SW 380NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 56.0N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 110SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...450NE 450SE 500SW 350NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 54.5N 28.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 400SE 350SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 54.0N 20.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 350SE 300SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 55.0N 14.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 250SE 250SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.6N 37.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 030858
TCDAT1

Hurricane Martin Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
900 AM GMT Thu Nov 03 2022

Martin has maintained an impressive presentation overnight, with
an eye feature appearing on and off in satellite imagery. However,
recent images suggests a baroclinic zone is already starting to
run under Martin's cirrus canopy from the northwest. This front has
yet to infiltrate the core, per recent microwave imagery, and thus
Martin currently remains a tropical cyclone. The latest Dvorak
estimates remain unchanged, so Martin's intensity is held at 75 kt.

Acceleration continues with Martin, but the latest heading is
just a bit more poleward than before at a very brisk 030/40-kt. No
drastic changes were made from the prior cycle, with Martin
accelerating further and turning north over the next 6-12 hours as
it becomes captured by an intense high-latitude trough from
Atlantic Canada. After the phasing between Martin and this potent
deep-layer trough completes, the combined system is forecast to
slow down substantially as it occludes, followed by a faster
eastward or east-southeastward motion as the large extratropical
cyclone gradually weakens. The latest track forecast is quite
similar to the prior forecast, continuing to favor a blend of the
GFS and ECMWF global model guidance.

Any additional intensification of Martin's maximum sustained winds
will likely be of the non-tropical variety, as interaction with the
trough will likely wrap some cool descending air along the
southwestern side of Martin, potentially resulting a string-jet-like
development that causes some strengthening. For this reason, a peak
intensity of 80-kt is still shown in 12 hours as Martin becomes
post-Tropical. With that said, the most important evolution with the
cyclone over the next couple of days will be the dramatic expansion
of its 34- and 50-kt wind field as the system becomes an
exceptionally large and dangerous warm-seclusion-type extratropical
low. In fact, the forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii and
high-seas of the resulting extratropical cyclone are so large in 36
hours that it takes up a large chunk of the entire north Atlantic
poleward of 50 degrees. After this time period, the extratropical
cyclone should completely occlude and gradually start to decay as it
loses its baroclinicity. However, Martin should remain a large and
powerful extratropical cyclone into the weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 41.9N 41.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 47.9N 37.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 04/0600Z 54.7N 36.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 04/1800Z 56.2N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 05/0600Z 55.9N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 05/1800Z 54.7N 26.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/0600Z 54.5N 17.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/0600Z 59.1N 9.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 030854
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Martin Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
900 AM GMT Thu Nov 03 2022

...MARTIN RACING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
LATER TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.9N 41.4W
ABOUT 805 MI...1300 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 46 MPH...74 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Martin was located
near latitude 41.9 North, longitude 41.4 West. Martin is moving
rapidly toward the north-northeast near 46 mph (74 km/h). A turn to
the north is expected to occur later today taking Martin over the
far North Atlantic. A reduction in forward speed and a turn to the
east or east-southeast is then forecast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Martin should continue to grow larger and slightly stronger
today when it transitions into a large and powerful post-tropical
cyclone. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to gradually lose
strength through the weekend, but remain very large.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles
(445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Martin when it become a post-tropical
cyclone will likely spread across a large portion of the
high-latitude North Atlantic basin, affecting portions of Atlantic
Canada, the Azores, and the Atlantic coast of Europe by the weekend.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products form your local weather
office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 030852
TCMAT1

HURRICANE MARTIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162022
0900 UTC THU NOV 03 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.9N 41.4W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 40 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 45SE 40SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 80SE 70SW 30NW.
34 KT.......240NE 220SE 200SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 330SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.9N 41.4W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.4N 43.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 47.9N 37.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...330NE 320SE 320SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 54.7N 36.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 0NW.
50 KT...140NE 190SE 160SW 80NW.
34 KT...380NE 460SE 450SW 370NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 56.2N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 50SE 80SW 0NW.
50 KT...120NE 180SE 220SW 160NW.
34 KT...460NE 480SE 500SW 400NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 55.9N 33.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 150SW 0NW.
34 KT...270NE 440SE 420SW 350NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 54.7N 26.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 400SE 360SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 54.5N 17.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 300SE 300SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 59.1N 9.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.9N 41.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 030249
TCDAT1

Hurricane Martin Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
300 AM GMT Thu Nov 03 2022

Martin remains in impressive high-latitude late-season hurricane.
Recent infrared satellite imagery shows deep convection wrapping
around a ragged eye. The hurricane's cloud shield has begun
expanding over the northern and northwestern portions of the storm
suggesting that the system's extratropical transition is beginning.
Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB range from
65 to 77 kt, and the initial wind speed will remain on the higher
end of those estimates at 75 kt.

The global model guidance indicates that Martin will strengthen
tonight and early Thursday as it transforms into an extratropical
cyclone. That transition is expected to be complete by about
1800 UTC on Thursday. The guidance continues to depict a very
strong sting-jet-like feature around the southern and southwestern
portions of the storm, and the NHC forecast therefore calls for
some strengthening during the next 12 hours or so. Martin's wind
field is also forecast to rapidly expand in size during the next
day or so, and this is reflected in the wind radii forecast. The
baroclinic forcing should begin to decrease by late tomorrow, with
gradual weakening occurring after that time, however Martin is
forecast to remain a very large and powerful cyclone over the North
Atlantic for the next several days.

Martin continues to accelerate, and it is now moving northeastward
at about 34 kt. A faster north-northeastward motion is expected
overnight, followed by northward turn on Thursday as Martin moves
around the eastern side of a strong deep-layer trough. The trough
is forecast to capture Martin by 36 hours, and the merged system is
expected to slow down considerably, and then turn eastward in the
mid-latitude flow. The updated track forecast is slightly faster
during the first 24 hours, but little change was required
thereafter. The forecast is a blend of mostly the GFS and ECMWF
global model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 39.4N 44.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 43.8N 40.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 51.9N 36.2W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 04/1200Z 56.0N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 05/0000Z 56.0N 35.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 05/1200Z 55.0N 29.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/0000Z 55.0N 21.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/0000Z 58.0N 9.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 030248
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Martin Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
300 AM GMT Thu Nov 03 2022

...MARTIN FORECAST TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY...

SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 44.9W
ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM W OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 39 MPH...63 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Martin was located
near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 44.9 West. Martin is moving
toward the northeast near 39 mph (63 km/h). A turn to the north
and a rapid increase in forward speed are expected on Thursday,
taking Martin over the far North Atlantic. A reduction in forward
speed and a turn to the east or east-southeast is forecast on
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Martin should get larger and stronger tonight and Thursday
when it transitions to large and powerful post-tropical cyclone.
After that time, the cyclone is forecast to gradually lose strength
through the weekend, but remain very large.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 030247
TCMAT1

HURRICANE MARTIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162022
0300 UTC THU NOV 03 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 44.9W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 34 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE 100SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 44.9W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 46.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 43.8N 40.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...330NE 300SE 300SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 51.9N 36.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 30NW.
50 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 100NW.
34 KT...400NE 480SE 480SW 450NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 56.0N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...140NE 180SE 200SW 100NW.
34 KT...480NE 480SE 480SW 450NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 56.0N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 80SE 150SW 0NW.
34 KT...390NE 440SE 440SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 55.0N 29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 80SE 150SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 420SE 420SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 55.0N 21.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 80SE 100SW 0NW.
34 KT... 0NE 340SE 340SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 58.0N 9.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.4N 44.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 022046
TCDAT1

Hurricane Martin Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
500 PM AST Wed Nov 02 2022

Martin is an impressive high-latitude hurricane for November.
Satellite imagery shows that the eye continues to become better
defined with warmer temperatures in the center, along with a mostly
solid eyewall. Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB have
increased to T4.5 or 77 kt, and the initial wind speed is set to 75
kt based on that data.

The hurricane should begin extratropical transition overnight, with
almost all of the guidance indicating strengthening. The high-
resolution hurricane models and most of the global models are still
showing a sting-jet-like feature, with winds of 90 kt or more
expected tomorrow morning in the southern semicircle.
Additionally, at about the same time, Martin should grow
substantially due to a favorable mid-latitude trough
interaction. Gradual weakening should start by tomorrow afternoon
as the baroclinic forcing decreases, but Martin should be a
very large and strong extratropical cyclone for several days over
the far North Atlantic. Little change was made to the previous
forecast, and Martin should become an extratropical low by 18
UTC on Thursday.

Martin has turned northeastward and continues to pick up
speed, now 27 kt. The hurricane should move faster to the
north-northeast and north as it becomes drawn into the strong
deep-layer trough to its northwest during the next day or two. This
same trough will ultimately fully capture Martin, causing the now
merged extratropical cyclone to slow down and eventually move
eastward in the mid-latitude westerlies toward the British Isles.
The new forecast was shifted eastward at long range, with only
small modifications otherwise.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 37.1N 47.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 40.4N 43.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 48.0N 36.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 04/0600Z 54.6N 36.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/1800Z 56.3N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 05/0600Z 56.0N 32.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/1800Z 55.0N 24.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/1800Z 57.0N 11.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 022045
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Martin Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
500 PM AST Wed Nov 02 2022

...MARTIN INTENSIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 47.6W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1815 KM W OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Martin was located
by satellite imagery near latitude 37.1 North, longitude 47.6 West.
Martin is moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h). A turn
to the north and a rapid increase in forward speed are expected
during the next couple of days, taking Martin over the far North
Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Martin should get larger and stronger through
tomorrow, then gradually lose strength from Thursday through the
weekend, but remain a very large cyclone.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 022045
TCMAT1

HURRICANE MARTIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162022
2100 UTC WED NOV 02 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 47.6W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 27 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 130SE 100SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 47.6W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 48.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 40.4N 43.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...270NE 230SE 240SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 48.0N 36.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 30NW.
50 KT...140NE 160SE 150SW 100NW.
34 KT...400NE 380SE 430SW 450NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 54.6N 36.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT...130NE 180SE 200SW 60NW.
34 KT...390NE 430SE 440SW 440NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 56.3N 35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 80SE 100SW 10NW.
34 KT...370NE 440SE 440SW 440NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 56.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...170NE 430SE 410SW 410NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 55.0N 24.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 70SE 100SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 370SE 370SW 280NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 57.0N 11.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 47.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 021611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.11.2022

HURRICANE LISA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 86.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.11.2022 17.0N 86.7W WEAK
00UTC 03.11.2022 17.1N 88.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.11.2022 17.0N 90.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.11.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE MARTIN ANALYSED POSITION : 35.2N 51.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.11.2022 35.2N 51.1W MODERATE
00UTC 03.11.2022 38.1N 46.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 03.11.2022 43.2N 39.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.11.2022 52.4N 37.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.11.2022 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 24.4N 75.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.11.2022 24.4N 75.7W WEAK

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021611

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 021451
TCDAT1

Hurricane Martin Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
1100 AM AST Wed Nov 02 2022

Satellite images indicate that Martin now has a better-defined eye,
with a tight banding pattern wrapping over one degree around the
center. Additionally, early-morning microwave data show that
the cyclone has a closed low-level ring on the 37 GHz channel and
most of an eyewall on the 91 GHz. Dvorak intensity estimates have
increased since the last cycle, and the initial wind speed is set to
65 kt, near the SAB estimate.

The hurricane has about a day left within an unstable atmosphere
and moderate shear to further intensify in the conventional
tropical cyclone manner. However, a more interesting event could
happen in the early-morning hours tomorrow as extratropical
transition begins. Most of the high-resolution hurricane models and
even some of the global models are showing a sting-jet-like feature
occurring on the southern side of Martin in about 24 hours due to
a favorable trough interaction. Guidance is quite a bit higher
than the last cycle and, with good agreement in the models, the
official intensity forecast is raised for the first 24 h, then
blended back toward the global model consensus. Martin should be a
very large and strong extratropical cyclone for several days over
the far North Atlantic.

Martin is making a leftward turn and accelerating, now estimated
at 060/23 kt. The tropical cyclone should continue to turn more
northeastward and accelerate over the next day hours as it becomes
drawn into a strong deep-layer trough from Atlantic Canada. This
same trough will ultimately fully capture Martin, leading to its
extratropical transition by tomorrow afternoon. The merger of both
systems will lead to a rapid expansion of both the 34- and 50-kt
radii, and this continues to be indicated in the wind-radii
forecast. After this trough-TC merger, the resulting extratropical
cyclone will slow down and then move generally eastward over the
remainder of the forecast period, with perhaps a northward bend
early next week. There is increasing uncertainty on the final
disposition of the low, perhaps near the British Isles or
turning northward towards Iceland. The new forecast is moved
north of the previous one at long range.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 35.5N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 37.6N 46.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 43.4N 39.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 51.9N 35.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/1200Z 55.0N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 05/0000Z 56.4N 33.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/1200Z 56.0N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/1200Z 56.5N 17.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/1200Z 60.5N 15.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 021450
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Martin Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
1100 AM AST Wed Nov 02 2022

...MARTIN BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE 2022 ATLANTIC
SEASON...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 50.0W
ABOUT 1280 MI...2060 KM W OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Martin was
located by satellite imagery near latitude 35.5 North, longitude
50.0 West. Martin is moving toward the east-northeast near 26 mph
(43 km/h). A turn to the northeast and a rapid increase in forward
speed are expected during the next couple of days, taking Martin
over the far North Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Martin should get larger and stronger through
tomorrow, gradually lose strength from Thursday through the
weekend, but remain a very large cyclone.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 021450
TCMAT1

HURRICANE MARTIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162022
1500 UTC WED NOV 02 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 50.0W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE 80SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 50.0W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 51.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 37.6N 46.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...220NE 180SE 170SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 43.4N 39.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...360NE 290SE 340SW 370NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 51.9N 35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 160SE 180SW 130NW.
34 KT...360NE 370SE 430SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 55.0N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 110SW 90NW.
34 KT...340NE 440SE 420SW 340NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 56.4N 33.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 130SE 130SW 100NW.
34 KT...340NE 380SE 330SW 330NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 56.0N 28.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 100SE 100SW 0NW.
34 KT...160NE 210SE 220SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 56.5N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 60.5N 15.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.5N 50.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 020846
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Martin Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
500 AM AST Wed Nov 02 2022

Deep convection has continued to increase in coverage and intensity
with Martin this morning, with occasional hints of a eye trying to
develop within the cyclonically rotating bands of cloud tops colder
than -60C. This improved core structure can also be seen on a recent
0732 UTC GMI microwave pass. Earlier scatterometer imagery mostly
missed the center, though the edge values of ASCAT-C in the
southwest quadrant did show a peak wind retrieval of 44 kt. While
earlier subjective satellite intensity estimates remained largely
unchanged, given the improvement in satellite imagery seen this
morning compared to last night, the initial intensity is being
nudged upward to 55 kt for this advisory.

Martin is starting to make the turn more northward as it accelerates
at 075/13 kt. The tropical cyclone should continue to turn more
northeastward and accelerate over the next 12 to 24 hours as it
becomes captured by pronounced deep-layer trough in Atlantic Canada
that is quickly amplifying towards the system. This same trough will
ultimately fully capture Martin, leading to its extratropical
transition. The merger of both systems is also forecast to lead to a
rapid expansion of both the 34- and 50-kt radii and these have been
increased significantly as Martin becomes extratropical. After this
trough-TC merger, the resulting extratropical cyclone will slow down
and then pivot eastward over the remainder of the forecast period.
The track guidance is tightly clustered early on, but is also
slightly east of the prior forecast track, so the latest track
forecast was shifted in that direction. Another eastward adjustment
was also made in days 4 and 5, in order to match closer with track
guidance this cycle.

Martin is having no issues maintaining moderate to deep convection
near its center, thanks in large part to very cold (-57 to -59
degree C) 200 mb temperatures over the cyclone maintaining
instability. Even though shear is forecast to increase over the next
24 hours, this negative factor will likely be offset by a pronounced
jet streak developing north of Martin, with the cyclone being
optimally placed for in its right entrance region, favoring
large-scale ascent. Thus, Martin is expected to intensify further
and is forecast to become a hurricane later today. The acceleration
in the cyclone's forward motion may also help to increase its
maximum sustained winds, and the latest NHC intensity forecast still
shows Martin peaking in intensity as it becomes a large and powerful
extratropical cyclone. This intensity forecast remains in good
agreement with the bulk of the intensity guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 35.3N 52.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 36.6N 49.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 40.6N 43.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 47.4N 37.4W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/0600Z 54.3N 34.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 04/1800Z 57.0N 35.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/0600Z 55.5N 34.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/0600Z 54.4N 22.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/0600Z 57.7N 13.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 020842
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Martin Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
500 AM AST Wed Nov 02 2022

...MARTIN EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.3N 52.1W
ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Martin was
located near latitude 35.3 North, longitude 52.1 West. Martin is
moving toward the east-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn
northeastward and rapid acceleration are expected during the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next day or so and Martin is expected to become a hurricane today
before transitioning into a large and powerful extratropical low on
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 020841
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM MARTIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162022
0900 UTC WED NOV 02 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 52.1W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 100SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 52.1W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 53.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 36.6N 49.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 130SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 40.6N 43.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...290NE 240SE 230SW 280NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 47.4N 37.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 130NW.
34 KT...350NE 335SE 370SW 410NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 54.3N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...320NE 400SE 400SW 380NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 57.0N 35.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...100NE 130SE 130SW 100NW.
34 KT...330NE 400SE 400SW 350NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 55.5N 34.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 100SE 100SW 0NW.
34 KT...270NE 430SE 420SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 54.4N 22.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 57.7N 13.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.3N 52.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 020243
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Martin Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
1100 PM AST Tue Nov 01 2022

Deep convection is gradually increasing near the center of Martin
and banding features are becoming better established on the system's
north side. Even though the core of Martin looks tropical in nature,
the storm still has some subtropical characteristics with frontal
features nearby. The latest Dvorak estimates were unchanged from
earlier, so the initial wind speed remains 50 kt for this advisory.

Martin is moving just south of due east, with the latest initial
motion estimated to be 100/9 kt. The storm should begin to turn
northeastward on Wednesday as a mid- to upper-level trough currently
off the northeast U.S. approaches the system. A stronger mid- to
upper-level trough near Atlantic Canada should help accelerate
Martin northeastward by Wednesday night and Thursday before this
trough interacts and merges with the storm Thursday night and
Friday. After the two systems merge, Martin will likely slow down
and move eastward over the northeastern Atlantic. Little change was
made to the previous track forecast during the first 72 hours, but
notable eastward adjustments were made at days 4 and 5 to be in
better agreement with the latest model guidance.

Although Martin is over relatively cool 25 degree C waters and
headed over even cooler SSTs during the next couple of days,
unstable conditions and upper-level diffluence along with
non-tropical forcing should cause significant strengthening during
the next day or two. Martin is forecast to become a powerful
extratropical low in about 36 hours when it merges with the strong
trough off Atlantic Canada. After that time, the models show a slow
weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is in line with the
majority of the guidance and is fairly similar to the previous
forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 35.1N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 35.9N 51.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 38.8N 46.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 44.0N 40.3W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/0000Z 51.4N 35.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 04/1200Z 57.4N 33.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/0000Z 57.3N 34.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/0000Z 54.7N 27.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/0000Z 55.0N 19.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 020240
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM MARTIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162022
0300 UTC WED NOV 02 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 53.4W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 270SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 53.4W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 54.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 35.9N 51.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 38.8N 46.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 44.0N 40.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 10NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...270NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 51.4N 35.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...360NE 300SE 300SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 57.4N 33.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
34 KT...330NE 360SE 360SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 57.3N 34.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...270NE 420SE 420SW 360NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 54.7N 27.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 55.0N 19.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N 53.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 020241
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Martin Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
1100 PM AST Tue Nov 01 2022

...MARTIN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 53.4W
ABOUT 680 MI...1100 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Martin was
located near latitude 35.1 North, longitude 53.4 West. Martin is
moving toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h). A much faster
northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two.
Martin is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday before
transitioning to a powerful extratropical system by early Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 012055
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Martin Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
500 PM AST Tue Nov 01 2022

Martin has a tight low-level center with a small central dense
overcast and some outer banding. However, the deep convection
remains somewhat fragmentary, and the system may still have some
hybrid characteristics remaining. The subjective Dvorak estimates
from SAB and TAFB came in at a 3.0, or around 45 kt. Fortunately,
there's also some in-situ data from drifting buoy 44018, which just
reported a 993 mb surface pressure value close to the system's
center. Based upon this, the central pressure is assessed at 991
mb and intensity is boosted slightly to 50 kt.

The tropical storm is moving a bit faster - 11 kt - toward the
east, as it is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies in a split
in the jet stream with faster westerlies both poleward and
equatorward of the system. Martin should turn toward the northeast
at an increasingly rapid forward speed during the next two days.
The official track forecast is based upon the consensus (TVCN and
HCCA) of the tightly clustered global and hurricane dynamical
models, and slightly to the right - eastward - of the previous
advisory at 60-72 hr. From days three to five, Martin should
decelerate as it interacts with a developing extratropical low to
its north.

For the intensity, the SSTs are a lukewarm 25-26C, which is a couple
of degrees warmer than usual for this latitude. This anomalous
surface warmth along with quite cold upper-level temperatures should
provide an unstable atmosphere. The mid-level moisture that Martin
is currently embedded within is quite dry, but is expected to
moisten up by tomorrow. The vertical shear is 20-25 kt out of the
southwest, but the effects of this moderate shear are tempered by
Martin moving in roughly the same direction as the shear vector.
Within these generally conducive conditions, the system is expected
to steadily intensify. The official intensity forecast is similar
to that previously issued, and is based on a consensus of the
statistical, global, and hurricane dynamical models. Around 48 hr,
Martin should transition into an extratropical low as a cold front
reaches near the center of the system. A significant change to the
official forecast has Martin continuing now for five days as the
new global models suggest that Martin will remain the dominant
vortex and not be absorbed. It is expected that Martin will be a
large and powerful extratropical system threatening the North
Atlantic shipping lanes through days four and five.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 35.4N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 35.5N 52.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 37.3N 48.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 41.0N 43.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 47.9N 36.4W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 04/0600Z 55.5N 31.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/1800Z 59.0N 32.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/1800Z 60.0N 34.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/1800Z 58.0N 35.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Landsea

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 012054
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM MARTIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162022
2100 UTC TUE NOV 01 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 54.5W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 270SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 54.5W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 55.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 35.5N 52.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 37.3N 48.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 41.0N 43.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 10NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...270NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 47.9N 36.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...360NE 300SE 300SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 55.5N 31.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
34 KT...330NE 360SE 360SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 59.0N 32.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...270NE 420SE 420SW 360NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 60.0N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 58.0N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.4N 54.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 012055
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Martin Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
500 PM AST Tue Nov 01 2022

...MARTIN GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC...
...SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE HURRICANE THREATENING SHIPPING
LANES...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.4N 54.5W
ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Martin was
located near latitude 35.4 North, longitude 54.5 West. Martin is
moving toward the east near 13 mph (20 km/h). The tropical storm is
anticipated to turn toward the northeast at a faster rate of
forward speed during the next two days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Martin
is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday afternoon or night
before transitioning to a powerful extratropical system on Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 011500
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Martin Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
1100 AM AST Tue Nov 01 2022

The occluded low over the central North Atlantic has developed deep
convection over its center, while the frontal boundaries have
become displaced a long distance to its east and north. At
the same time, FSU Cyclone Phase Space analyses suggest that the
system has developed a non-frontal warm core. Given these changes,
the system has evolved into a tropical cyclone. The ASCAT
scatterometer just observed the system and indicated that the
intensity is currently at 45 kt with a large area of
35 kt-plus winds. Thus the system is now a tropical storm and given
the name Martin.

The system is moving toward the east-northeast around 8 kt, as it
is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies in a split in the jet
stream with faster westerlies both poleward and equatorward of the
system. Martin should turn toward the northeast at an increasingly
rapid forward speed during the next two days. The official track
forecast is based upon the consensus (TVCN and HCCA) of the tightly
clustered global and hurricane dynamical models. In about three
days, Martin should decelerate as it merges with a developing
extratropical low to its north.

For the intensity, even though the SSTs are a lukewarm 25C, the
upper-level temperatures are quite cold given that Martin is
embedded within a deep and vertically stacked cyclone. This
vertical temperature structure should enable deep convection
to continue, even while the mid-level moisture is only marginally
ample. The vertical shear is 20-25 kt out of the southwest, but
the effects of this moderate shear are tempered by Martin moving in
the same direction as the shear vector. Bottom line is that
despite the month being November, Martin is expected to develop into
a hurricane at high latitudes. The official intensity prediction
steadily strengthens the system through 48 hr, which matches a
consensus of the statistical, global, and hurricane dynamical
models. Around 48 hr, Martin should transition into a powerful
extratropical low as a cold front reaches near the center of the
system. In about three days, post-tropical Martin should be
merging with an developing extratropical system to its north but
still be containing hurricane-force winds.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 35.3N 55.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 35.4N 53.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 36.1N 50.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 38.7N 46.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 43.8N 40.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 04/0000Z 51.5N 34.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/1200Z 56.0N 34.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 011458
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM MARTIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162022
1500 UTC TUE NOV 01 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 55.9W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 60SE 60SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 270SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 55.9W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 56.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 35.4N 53.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 36.1N 50.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 70 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 38.7N 46.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 43.8N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 210SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 51.5N 34.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 240SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 56.0N 34.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.3N 55.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 011457
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Martin Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
1100 AM AST Tue Nov 01 2022

...MARTIN FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.3N 55.9W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Martin was
located near latitude 35.3 North, longitude 55.9 West. Martin is
moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). The tropical storm is
anticipated to turn toward the northeast at a faster rate of
forward speed during the next two days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Martin
is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday night before
transitioning to a powerful extratropical system on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

>

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