Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LISA-22
in Guatemala, Belize

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Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 051444
TCDAT5

Remnants Of Lisa Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1000 AM CDT Sat Nov 05 2022

Although the system continues to produce some limited bursts of
convection, visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation has
become weak and ill defined. The system lacks a well-defined
center and has not had any significant organized deep convection
in about 24 hours, therefore this will be final advisory on Lisa.
The remnants are forecast to meander over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico during the next day or two, but strong vertical wind shear
and dry mid-level air are expected to prevent any resurgence.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 21.2N 95.2W 20 KT 25 MPH
12H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 051443
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Lisa Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1000 AM CDT Sat Nov 05 2022

...LISA DISSIPATES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 95.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Lisa were located near
latitude 21.2 North, longitude 95.2 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). The remnants are forecast to
meander over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is expected during the next day or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 051443
TCMAT5

REMNANTS OF LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
1500 UTC SAT NOV 05 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 95.2W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 95.2W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 95.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 95.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 050836
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 AM CDT Sat Nov 05 2022

Lisa continues to produce a couple of clusters of convection to the
north and east of the exposed low-level center. This is enough to
keep the system classifiable using the Dvorak Technique, and thus
the cyclone is maintained as a 25-kt depression on this advisory.
It is expected that later today strong vertical wind shear and dry
air entrainment will stop the convection, and thus Lisa is expected
to degenerate to a remnant low in 12 h or less. The remnants are
forecast to dissipate completely after 36 h.

The initial motion is 335/3. A slow northward drift is expected
today, followed by a slow southward drift until the system
dissipates. The new track forecast has only minor adjustments from
the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 19.8N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 20.2N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/0600Z 20.4N 95.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1800Z 20.0N 95.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 050835
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lisa Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 AM CDT Sat Nov 05 2022

...LISA FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 95.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in eastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress
of Lisa.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lisa was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 95.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h),
and a slow motion toward the north is expected today. Lisa or its
remnants are then forecast to stall or drift southward through the
remainder of the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and Lisa is expected to become a
remnant low later this morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 050835
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
0900 UTC SAT NOV 05 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF LISA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 95.5W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 95.5W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 95.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.2N 95.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.4N 95.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.0N 95.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 95.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 050409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.11.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N 95.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.11.2022 19.7N 95.2W WEAK
12UTC 05.11.2022 19.0N 96.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.11.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 31.6N 54.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.11.2022 31.6N 54.0W WEAK
00UTC 06.11.2022 31.7N 54.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.11.2022 31.5N 55.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.11.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 36.3N 57.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.11.2022 36.3N 57.4W WEAK
12UTC 08.11.2022 39.0N 52.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.11.2022 41.2N 43.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.11.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 27.5N 71.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.11.2022 27.5N 71.5W WEAK
00UTC 09.11.2022 26.4N 74.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.11.2022 26.4N 76.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.11.2022 26.3N 78.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.11.2022 27.8N 81.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.11.2022 28.8N 83.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 050409

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 050239
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1000 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

Lisa continues to barely hang on to tropical cyclone status this
evening. The broadening low-level circulation has a single burst of
deep convection displaced well to the northeast of the center by
strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear. The subjective
satellite intensity estimates support an initial intensity of 25 kt.
Environmental conditions are not expected to improve in the next
couple of days. The global models forecast the mid-level environment
to become drier and the vertical wind shear to strengthen further.
Simulated satellite imagery shows the little remaining convection
should collapse in less than 12 hours. Therefore, the official
intensity forecast now predicts Lisa will become a post-tropical
cyclone by Saturday morning.

The depression appears to be moving slowly to the north at 3 kt.
This decrease in forward motion seems to indicate that Lisa will not
make as much northward progress before the low-level circulation
stalls and drifts southward in about 12 hours or so. The new track
forecast now shows a turn to the south occurring sooner, similar to
the corrected consensus aid guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 19.5N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 20.0N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/0000Z 20.1N 95.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1200Z 19.9N 95.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0000Z 19.6N 95.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 050238
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lisa Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1000 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

...LISA FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 95.5W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM WNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in eastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress
of Lisa.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lisa
was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 95.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue into early Saturday. Lisa or
its remnants are then forecast to stall or drift southward through
the remainder of the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and Lisa is expected to become a
remnant low by early Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 050238
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
0300 UTC SAT NOV 05 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF LISA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 95.5W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 95.5W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 95.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.0N 95.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.1N 95.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.9N 95.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.6N 95.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 95.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 042037
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

Deep convection that was associated with Lisa this morning has
quickly weakened and become displaced well to the northeast of the
center due strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear. Earlier
satellite wind data and more recent observations from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the overnight and
morning convective burst did not result in any increase in strength.
Data from the aircraft and the scatterometer instrument suggest
that Lisa's maximum winds are around 25 kt. Since the shear is
forecast to increase further and the mid-level humidity near the
cyclone is expected to decrease, additional weakening is
anticipated. It is possible that some additional bursts of
convection will occur in association with Lisa tonight and early
Saturday, but those bursts are not likely to result in a return of
organized deep convection. Therefore, Lisa is forecast to become a
post-tropical remnant low within 24 hours, but this could occur as
early as tonight if convection does not re-develop soon.

Lisa was located a bit farther north and west of the previous
estimates, which has resulted in an adjustment to the initial
position and short-term forecast. Now that Lisa has become
vertically shallow it is expected to move slowly northward
tonight. It should then stall and begin a southward drift over
the weekend before dissipation occurs. The new track forecast is
west of the previous track and is a blend of the latest GFS and
ECMWF model forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 19.3N 95.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 20.0N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 20.6N 95.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/0600Z 20.3N 95.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1800Z 19.9N 95.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 042037
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lisa Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

...LISA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 95.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM WNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in eastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress
of Lisa.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lisa was
located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 95.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).
A slow northward motion is expected tonight and early Saturday.
Lisa or its remnants are then forecast to stall or drift southward
through the remainder of the weekend.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Lisa is expected to
become a remnant low tonight or Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 042036
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
2100 UTC FRI NOV 04 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF LISA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 95.3W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 95.3W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 95.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.6N 95.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.3N 95.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.9N 95.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 95.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 041436
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1000 AM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

Lisa has been over water for most of this morning, and deep
convection associated with the tropical depression has increased.
However, strong upper-level southerly winds appear to be limiting
the majority of that convection to the north of the cyclone's
surface center. Data from a couple of Mexican buoys located east of
Lisa's center have not shown any signs of increasing winds, however
we don't have any recent observations closer to the center of the
depression. The 30 kt initial intensity was therefore based on a
blend of TAFB and SAB Dvorak fixes. An Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Lisa this afternoon and
should provide more information about its winds and structure.

It's possible that Lisa could briefly re-attain tropical storm
status this afternoon before an expected increase in the
aforementioned wind shear and intrusions of dry air bring an end to
the window for strengthening tonight. Lisa is forecast to lose its
organized deep convection within about 36 h and dissipate about a
day later, based on the latest dynamical hurricane and global model
guidance.

The depression has turned toward the northwest and is still
forecast to slow down and begin to meander over the western Bay of
Campeche by tomorrow. Exactly how far north Lisa gets will likely
be determined in part by how long it remains a tropical cyclone
since most of the northward steering flow is coming from the
upper-levels, which won't affect Lisa's motion when it becomes a
shallow remnant low. The NHC track forecast has been nudged
northward at most forecast times, and lies between the previous
official forecast and the latest multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 19.1N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 19.8N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 20.6N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 20.6N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1200Z 20.3N 95.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 041435
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lisa Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1000 AM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

...LISA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 94.6W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM W OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in eastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress
of Lisa.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lisa
was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 94.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A
gradual turn toward the north at a slower forward speed is expected
by Saturday morning. Lisa or its remnants are then forecast to
stall and move very little through the remainder of the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible today. Lisa is forecast to
begin weakening by Saturday morning and will likely become a
post-tropical remnant low by Saturday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The rainfall threat associated with Lisa is expected to
continue to diminish. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches
are possible across portions of southeastern Mexico through this
afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 041434
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
1500 UTC FRI NOV 04 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF LISA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 94.6W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 94.6W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 94.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.8N 95.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.6N 95.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.6N 95.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 20.3N 95.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 94.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 040837
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
0900 UTC FRI NOV 04 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF LISA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 94.0W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 94.0W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 93.6W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.3N 94.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 95.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.3N 95.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.0N 94.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.6N 94.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 94.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 040837
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lisa Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 AM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

...CENTER OF LISA EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 94.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM W OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in eastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress
of Lisa.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lisa was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 94.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph
(17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward
speed is expected later today and tonight, and the depression is
forecast to become nearly stationary and meander on Saturday and
Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will move
away from the coast of Mexico today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.
After that, Lisa is forecast to weaken and to degenerate into a
remnant low pressure area by Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The rainfall threat associated with Lisa is expected to
continue to diminish. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches
are possible across portions of southeastern Mexico through early
Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 040235
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
0300 UTC FRI NOV 04 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF LISA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 93.1W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 93.1W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 92.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.7N 94.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.6N 95.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.2N 95.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.3N 95.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.8N 95.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 93.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 040235
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lisa Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1000 PM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

...LISA EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 93.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM WSW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in eastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress
of Lisa.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lisa
was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 93.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the west-northwest and northwest with a decrease in forward
speed is expected on Friday and Friday night, and the depression is
forecast to become nearly stationary and meander on Saturday and
Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will move
over the Bay of Campeche early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of
days, and Lisa is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant
low on Saturday night and dissipate by Sunday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The rainfall threat associated with Lisa is expected to
continue to diminish. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches
are possible across portions of southeastern Mexico through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 032045
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 PM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

Deep convection associated with Lisa has been diminishing on
infrared satellite images, although the system still has nearly a
closed ring of precipitation on the Sabancuy, Mexico, radar.
Assuming that at least some weakening has occurred during the day,
the current intensity estimate is set at 25 kt, which is above the
few available surface observations.

Center position estimates from visible satellite images and radar
indicate that Lisa continues to move generally westward, or at
about 280/10 kt. During the next day or two, the cyclone should
gradually turn toward the northwest and north while moving along
the southwestern and western side of a mid-level high pressure area.
Around 48 hours and beyond, the shallow vortex is likely to move
slowly and erratically with the near-surface environmental flow.
The official track forecast remains close to the dynamical model
consensus.

Strong south-southwesterly upper-level winds are expected to
prevail across most of the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days.
Therefore, even though the center of Lisa is forecast to soon move
over the waters of the Bay of Campeche, high vertical shear is
likely to prevent re-strengthening of the system. The consensus of
the numerical intensity guidance calls for weakening through 48
hours, and the official forecast shows Lisa becoming a remnant low
in a couple of days.


Key Messages:

1. Isolated flash flooding is possible across portions of
southeastern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 18.1N 92.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 04/0600Z 18.5N 93.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 04/1800Z 19.4N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 20.3N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 20.7N 95.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0600Z 20.4N 95.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1800Z 20.0N 95.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 032044
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lisa Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 PM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

...LISA CONTINUES MOVING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 92.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in eastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress
of Lisa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lisa was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 92.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight followed by a
turn toward the northwest on Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Lisa will continue to move over southeastern Mexico
tonight, and move into the Bay of Campeche on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next day or two. Lisa is not expected to re-intensify when the
center reaches the Bay of Campeche.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The rainfall threat associated with Lisa is expected to
continue to diminish through tonight. Additional rainfall amounts
of 1 to 3 inches are possible across portions of southeastern
Mexico through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 032043
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
2100 UTC THU NOV 03 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF LISA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 92.2W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 92.2W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 91.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.5N 93.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.4N 95.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.3N 95.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.7N 95.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.4N 95.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.0N 95.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 92.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 031446
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1000 AM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

Lisa has been inland for about 18 hours, and there are no
observations of tropical-storm-force winds. Also, using a standard
rate of decay over land shows the cyclone weakening below tropical
storm intensity by now. Therefore the system is being downgraded
to a tropical depression on this advisory.

Satellite fixes and observations from the Sabancuy, Mexico, radar
indicate that the cyclone continues moving mainly westward and
the initial motion estimate is 280/9 kt. Over the next couple of
days, Lisa should gradually turn to the northwest and north while
moving along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high. In
2-3 days, the increasingly shallow cyclone is expected to meander
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico within a weak low-level flow.
The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and
follows the multi-model consensus guidance, TVCA.

Lisa is forecast to move over the waters of the Bay of Campeche in
24 hours. Global models show strong southerly to
south-southwesterly upper-level winds across most of the Gulf of
Mexico during the next few days. The associated strong vertical
shear should prevent re-intensification. Global model simulations
also show Lisa's mid- to upper-level vorticity maximum being sheared
north-northeastward into the northern Gulf while the low-level
circulation remains over the Bay of Campeche. The official
intensity forecast, like the previous ones, shows the system
degenerating into a remnant low in 3 days.


Key Messages:

1. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of southeast
Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 18.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 04/0000Z 18.2N 92.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/1200Z 18.9N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 05/0000Z 19.8N 95.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 20.5N 95.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 20.2N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 19.8N 94.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 031445
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lisa Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1000 AM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

...LISA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT STILL BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 91.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in eastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress
of Lisa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lisa
was located inland near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 91.0 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue through tonight followed
by a turn toward the northwest. On the forecast track, the center
of Lisa will continue to move over southeastern Mexico today and
tonight, and move into the Bay of Campeche on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Lisa is
not expected to re-intensify when the center reaches the Bay of
Campeche.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Lisa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 6
inches with local amounts to 10 inches across the Mexican states of
Tabasco, northwestern Chiapas, and far eastern Veracruz. Rainfall
is expected to continue to diminish across Belize, northern
Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula today. Additional rainfall
totals of 1 to 2 inches are possible across these areas.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions, especially
across portions of southeastern Mexico


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 031444
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
1500 UTC THU NOV 03 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF LISA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 91.0W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 91.0W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 90.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.2N 92.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.9N 94.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.8N 95.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.5N 95.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.2N 95.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.8N 94.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 91.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 031140
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
700 AM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

...LISA MOVING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 90.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM ESE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula, and
southeastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of Lisa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 90.6 West. Lisa is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue for the next day or so, bringing the center
of Lisa across southeastern Mexico. A turn to the northwest and a
decrease in forward speed are expected on Friday, moving Lisa over
the Bay of Campeche.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast while the
center remains over land, and Lisa is expected to weaken to a
tropical depression later today. Lisa is not expected to
re-intensify when the center reaches the Bay of Campeche.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected inland near the path
of the center over portions of the southern Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and northern Guatemala for the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Lisa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 6
inches with local amounts to 10 inches across Belize, northern
Guatemala, the southern portion of the Mexican state of Quintana
Roo, southern and central Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and
far eastern Veracruz.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 030841
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 AM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

Lisa has continued to move farther inland during the last several
hours, with the center now located over extreme northern Guatemala.
The organization of the storm has continued to decrease in both
satellite imagery and radar data, and the initial intensity is
reduced to a somewhat uncertain 40 kt.

The initial motion is 280/9 kt. This general motion should continue
for the next 24 h or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as
Lisa moves over the Bay of Campeche. Starting near 48 h, the
cyclone should slow its forward motion and make a looping turn
toward the southeast, with this motion continuing until the cyclone
dissipates. The track guidance after 24 h has shifted a bit
westward since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track for
those time periods is nudged westward as well.

Lisa should continue to weaken while the center stays inland, and
it is forecast to be below tropical-storm strength in about 12 h.
Unfavorable upper-level winds and dry air entrainment are likely to
prevent re-intensification over the Bay of Campeche, and these
conditions should cause the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low
over water by 72 h. The global models are in good agreement that
the system will dissipate by 96 h, and the new intensity forecast
follows that scenario.


Key Messages:

1. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize,
northern Guatemala, and portions of southeast Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread inland over
northern Guatemala and the southern portions of the Yucatan
peninsula of Mexico during the next several hours, though all
coastal warnings have been discontinued.

3. Elevated Water levels along the coast of Belize should
diminish today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 17.8N 90.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 17.9N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/0600Z 18.4N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1800Z 19.2N 94.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 05/0600Z 19.9N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 20.2N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 19.8N 94.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 030840
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 AM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

...LISA CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...
...ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 90.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM W OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Belize has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the coast of Belize.

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the coast of Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula, and
southeastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of Lisa.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 90.1 West. Lisa is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue for the next day or so, bringing the center
of Lisa across northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico. After
that time, a turn to the northwest and a decrease in forward speed
are expected as Lisa moves over the Bay of Campeche.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast while the
center remains over land, and Lisa is expected to weaken to a
tropical depression later today. Lisa is not expected to
re-intensify once the center reaches the Bay of Campeche.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread inland
during the next several hours over portions of northern Guatemala
and the southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

RAINFALL: Lisa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 6
inches with local amounts to 10 inches across Belize, northern
Guatemala, the southern portion of the Mexican state of Quintana
Roo, southern and central Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and
far eastern Veracruz.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions.

SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect portions of
Central America today before subsiding. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 030840
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
0900 UTC THU NOV 03 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LISA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 90.1W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 90.1W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 89.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.9N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.4N 93.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.2N 94.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 19.9N 95.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.2N 95.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.8N 94.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 90.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 030539
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
100 AM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

...CENTER OF LISA NOW OVER NORTHEASTERN GUATEMALA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 89.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Belize
* Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was
located inland near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 89.6 West. Lisa
is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue for the next day or so, bringing the center
of Lisa across northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico. After
that time, a turn to the northwest and a decrease in forward speed
are expected as Lisa moves over the Bay of Campeche.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (80 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening will continue while the center of
Lisa moves farther inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread inland
through this morning over portions of Belize, northern Guatemala,
and the southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

RAINFALL: Lisa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of:

4 to 6 inches with local amounts to 10 inches across Belize,
northern Guatemala, the southern portion of the Mexican state of
Quintana Roo, southern Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and far
eastern Veracruz.

2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across the far
southeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Bay Islands of
Honduras, central Guatemala and south-central Campeche.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions, primarily
across Belize into northern Guatemala, the far southeast portion of
the Yucatan peninsula, the southern portion of the Mexican state of
Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas and far eastern Veracruz.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coast of Belize may remain
elevated by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels
through this morning in areas of onshore winds within the Tropical
Storm Warning area.

SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect portions of
Central America during the next day or so. These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 030251
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1000 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

Satellite and radar imagery showed Lisa made landfall earlier
this evening around 2120 UTC southwest of Belize City. The maximum
sustained winds and minimum central pressure were estimated to be
75 kt and 990 mb, respectively. The storm has moved farther inland
and the initial intensity has been reduced to 50 kt based on a
standard inland decay rate. Rapid weakening is expected to
continue overnight and into tomorrow due to land interaction and
Lisa is forecast to be a tropical depression on Thursday. Even
though the cyclone is expected to emerge over the Bay of Campeche
in a couple of days, strong southwesterly vertical wind shear will
likely prevent intensification. The NHC intensity forecast remains
largely unchanged from the previous advisory and still shows Lisa
dissipating by the end of the forecast period.

Lisa is moving westward at an estimated 10 kt. This general motion
is expected to continue for the next day or so until the storm
crosses over the Bay of Campeche. The cyclone is then forecast to
turn to the northwest and slow in forward speed, eventually
stalling between 60 to 72 hours until the low-level flow turns
Lisa southward. The official track forecast is very similar to the
previous advisory and close to the various consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is expected across portions
of Belize, northern Guatemala, and portions of southeastern Mexico
during the next day or so.

2. Water levels are likely to remain elevated in areas of onshore
flow along the coast of Belize overnight.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread inland over
Belize, northern Guatemala, southern portions of the Yucatan
peninsula of Mexico overnight.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 17.6N 89.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
12H 03/1200Z 17.7N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/0000Z 18.1N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1200Z 18.8N 94.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0000Z 19.6N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 05/1200Z 20.2N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 20.2N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 19.5N 94.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 030249
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1000 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

...LISA BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO BELIZE,
NORTHERN GUATEMALA, AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 89.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a
Tropical Storm Warning from Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, and
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning north of Puerto Costa
Maya.

The government of Belize has changed the Hurricane Warning to a
Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Belize.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Belize
* Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was
located inland near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 89.1 West. Lisa
is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue for the next day or so, bringing the center
of Lisa across Belize, northern Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico.
After that time, a turn to the northwest and a decrease in forward
speed are expected as Lisa moves over the Bay of Campeche.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening will continue while the center
of Lisa moves farther inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread inland
through tonight over portions of Belize, northern Guatemala, and
the southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

RAINFALL: Lisa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of:

4 to 6 inches with local amounts to 10 inches across Belize,
northern Guatemala, the southern portion of the Mexican state of
Quintana Roo, southern Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and far
eastern Veracruz.

2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across the far
southeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Bay Islands of
Honduras, central Guatemala and south-central Campeche.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions, primarily
across Belize into northern Guatemala, the far southeast portion of
the Yucatan peninsula, the southern portion of the Mexican state of
Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas and far eastern Veracruz.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coast of Belize may remain
elevated by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels
through the night in areas of onshore winds within the Tropical
Storm Warning area.

SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect portions of
Central America during the next day or so. These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 030249
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
0300 UTC THU NOV 03 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CHETUMAL TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA...AND
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PUERTO COSTA
MAYA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
* CHETUMAL TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA...MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LISA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 89.1W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 89.1W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 88.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.7N 90.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.1N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.8N 94.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.6N 94.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.2N 95.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.2N 95.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 19.5N 94.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 89.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 022345
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lisa Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
700 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

...LISA BRINGING WIND, RAIN, AND STORM SURGE TO BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 88.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Guatemala has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the north coast of Guatemala.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Belize
* Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lisa was located
inland near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 88.5 West. Lisa is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue for the next day or so, bringing the center
of Lisa across Belize, northern Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico.
After that time, a turn to the northwest and a decrease in forward
speed are expected as Lisa moves over the Bay of Campeche.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening will continue while the center
of Lisa moves farther inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70
miles (110 km). An observation station at the port of Belize City
reported a sustained wind of 68 mph (109 km/h) with a wind gust of
86 mph (138 km/h) within the past couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Belize
and the southeastern Yucatan peninsula during the next hour or two.
Tropical storm conditions are expected through tonight in portions
of the southern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical Storm Warning
area.

RAINFALL: Lisa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of:

4 to 6 inches with local amounts to 10 inches across Belize,
northern Guatemala, the southern portion of the Mexican state of
Quintana Roo. southern Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and far
eastern Veracruz.

2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across the far
southeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Bay Islands of
Honduras, central Guatemala and south-central Campeche.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions, primarily
across Belize into northern Guatemala, the far southeast portion of
the Yucatan peninsula, the southern portion of the Mexican state of
Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas and far eastern Veracruz.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will likely raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
flow near and to the north of the center of Lisa along the coast of
Belize and extreme southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Elsewhere, a storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is possible within the
Tropical Storm Warning area in eastern Yucatan and up to 1 foot for
the Bay Islands of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect portions of
Central America during the next day or two. These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 022123
TCUAT5

Hurricane Lisa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
420 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

...LISA MAKES LANDFALL IN BELIZE...

Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that Lisa has made
landfall along the coast of Belize, near the mouth of the Sibun
River, about 10 miles southwest of Belize City around 420 PM CDT
(2120 UTC). The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 85 mph
(140 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is estimated to be 990
mb (29.24 inches).

SUMMARY OF 420 PM CDT...2120 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 88.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 022044
TCDAT5

Hurricane Lisa Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

The hurricane is about to make landfall in Belize. Satellite and
radar images show the small core of Lisa moving across Belize's
barrier islands and the eye is getting very close to Belize City.
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Lisa during
the past few hours and a combination of the flight-level winds and
improvement in structure in radar images support increasing the
initial intensity to 75 kt. Hurricane-force winds only extend about
15 n mi from the center, and those conditions will likely move
across Belize City during the next couple of hours.

Lisa is expected to track westward across Belize, northern
Guatemala, and southern Mexico during the next 24 to 36 hours.
After that time, a turn to the northwest and a decrease in forward
speed are expected when Lisa moves over the Bay of Campeche. Over
the weekend, Lisa is expected to stall before drifting southward
in the low-level flow. Little change was made to the previous
track forecast, and this prediction lies close to the various
consensus models.

After the core of Lisa moves inland, rapid weakening is forecast
due to land interaction. Lisa is expected to become a tropical
storm this evening and weaken to a tropical depression on Thursday.
Although the storm is forecast to emerge back over water in the Bay
of Campeche, strong southerly shear should prevent strengthening.
The NHC intensity forecast now shows Lisa dissipating by the end of
the forecast period.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is possible near Belize City during
the next few hours.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Belize and
the southeastern Yucatan peninsula during the next few hours.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coast of Guatemala, and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the
Tropical Storm Warning areas through this evening.

4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize,
northern Guatemala and portions of southeastern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 17.4N 88.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 17.6N 89.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 03/1800Z 17.9N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/0600Z 18.4N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1800Z 19.2N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 05/0600Z 20.1N 95.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 20.6N 95.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 19.7N 94.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 022044
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lisa Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

...LISA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR BELIZE CITY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 88.2W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Bay Islands and the north coast of Honduras.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Belize
* Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of Guatemala
* Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lisa was located
near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 88.2 West. Lisa is moving toward
the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to
continue for the next day or so, bringing the center of Lisa across
Belize, northern Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico. After that
time, a turn to the northwest and a decrease in forward speed are
expected as Lisa moves over the Bay of Campeche.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening will occur after the center of
Lisa moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km). An observation in Belize City recently reported a wind
gust of 70 mph (115 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Belize
and the southeastern Yucatan peninsula during the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected through tonight in portions
of Guatemala and Yucatan in the Tropical Storm Warning areas.

RAINFALL: Lisa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of:

4 to 6 inches with local amounts to 10 inches across Belize,
northern Guatemala, the southern portion of the Mexican state of
Quintana Roo. southern Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and far
eastern Veracruz.

2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across the far
southeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Bay Islands of
Honduras, central Guatemala and south-central Campeche.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions, primarily
across Belize into northern Guatemala, the far southeast portion of
the Yucatan peninsula, the southern portion of the Mexican state of
Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas and far eastern Veracruz.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will likely raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near and to the north
of where the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and
extreme southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere,
a storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is possible within the Tropical Storm
Warning area in eastern Yucatan and up to 1 foot for the Bay
Islands of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect portions of
Central America during the next day or two. These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 022044
TCMAT5

HURRICANE LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
2100 UTC WED NOV 02 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE BAY ISLANDS AND THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
* CHETUMAL TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA...MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF GUATEMALA
* PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LISA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 88.2W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 88.2W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 87.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.6N 89.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.9N 91.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.4N 93.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.2N 94.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.1N 95.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.6N 95.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 19.7N 94.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 88.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 021740
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lisa Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
100 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

...LISA VERY NEAR BELIZE BARRIER REEF...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN BELIZE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 87.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Belize
* Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bay Islands, Honduras
* North coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward
* North coast of Guatemala
* Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lisa was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 87.7 West. Lisa is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion with a
gradual turn toward the west-northwest and some decrease in forward
speed is forecast during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Lisa will make landfall in Belize later this
afternoon, and then cross northern Guatemala and move into
southeastern Mexico by Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is still possible before landfall.
Rapid weakening will occur after the center of Lisa moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70
miles (110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Belize
and the southeastern Yucatan peninsula later this afternoon.
Tropical storm conditions are expected during the next few hours
over portions of the Bay Islands and along the northern coast
of Honduras within the Tropical Storm Warning area, and in portions
of Guatemala and Yucatan later this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Lisa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of:

4 to 6 inches with local amounts to 10 inches across Belize,
northern Guatemala, the southern portion of the Mexican state of
Quintana Roo. southern Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and far
eastern Veracruz.

2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across the far
southeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Bay Islands of
Honduras, central Guatemala and south-central Campeche.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions, primarily
across Belize into northern Guatemala, the far southeast portion of
the Yucatan peninsula, the southern portion of the Mexican state of
Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas and far eastern Veracruz.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will likely raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near and to the north
of where the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and
extreme southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere,
a storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is possible within the Tropical Storm
Warning area in eastern Yucatan and up to 1 foot for the Bay
Islands of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect portions of
Central America during the next day or two. These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 021455
TCDAT5

Hurricane Lisa Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1000 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

Lisa has become better organized on satellite images this morning,
with strong convection near the center. Flight-level, SFMR-observed
surface wind and Doppler velocity observations from Air Force
and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds
are near 70 kt. This is a small hurricane, with the inner-core
hurricane-force wind area only about 20 n mi across.

The hurricane is likely to make landfall within 12 hours, so it has
a small window for additional intensification before the center
crosses the coastline. The official forecast shows a 75-kt
intensity for the inland point at 12 hours, but it is expected that
Lisa will be stronger than that intensity at landfall. The cyclone
will rapidly weaken after moving inland and passing over Guatemala
and eastern Mexico. Although the center is forecast to emerge over
the Bay of Campeche in about 48 hours, strong southwesterly shear
associated with an upper-level trough near Texas is expect to cause
the system to weaken to a remnant low pressure area by day 5, or
sooner.

Lisa continues moving westward or around 275/12 kt. Over the
next few days, the tropical cyclone should turn toward the
northwest and north around the southwestern periphery of a
mid-level high pressure area. In 3-5 days, the weak and
shallow cyclone is expected to meander slowly over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico within the near-surface flow. The
official track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus
guidance and is similar to the previous NHC track.


Key Messages:

1. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where
the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and extreme
southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula starting this
afternoon.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Belize and
the southeastern Yucatan peninsula by this afternoon.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
north coast of Honduras and Guatemala in the next several hours,
and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical Storm
Warning areas beginning this afternoon.

4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize,
northern Guatemala and portions of southeastern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 17.2N 87.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 17.3N 88.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
24H 03/1200Z 17.5N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/0000Z 17.8N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1200Z 18.6N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0000Z 19.6N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 05/1200Z 20.5N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 20.0N 94.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 18.5N 94.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 021454
TCMAT5

HURRICANE LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
1500 UTC WED NOV 02 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS...AND
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF
HONDURAS EAST OF PUNTA CASTILLA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
* CHETUMAL TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA...MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAY ISLANDS...HONDURAS
* NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA WESTWARD
* NORTH COAST OF GUATEMALA
* PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LISA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 87.4W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 87.4W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 86.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.3N 88.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.5N 90.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.8N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.6N 94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.6N 95.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.5N 95.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 20.0N 94.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 18.5N 94.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 87.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 021454
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lisa Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1000 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

...LISA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE COAST OF
BELIZE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 87.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has changed the Hurricane Warning to a
Tropical Storm Warning for the Bay Islands of Honduras, and
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of
Honduras east of Punta Castilla.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Belize
* Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bay Islands, Honduras
* North coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward
* North coast of Guatemala
* Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lisa was located
near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 87.4 West. Lisa is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion with a
gradual turn toward the west-northwest and some decrease in forward
speed is forecast during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Lisa will make landfall in Belize later today,
and then cross northern Guatemala and move into southeastern Mexico
by Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before landfall.
Rapid weakening will occur after the center of Lisa moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Belize
and the southeastern Yucatan peninsula this afternoon. Tropical
storm conditions are expected during the next several hours over
portions of the Bay Islands and along the northern coast of Honduras
within the Tropical Storm Warning area, and in portions of
Guatemala and Yucatan later today.

RAINFALL: Lisa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of:

4 to 6 inches with local amounts to 10 inches across Belize,
northern Guatemala, the southern portion of the Mexican state of
Quintana Roo. southern Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and far
eastern Veracruz.

2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across the far
southeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Bay Islands of
Honduras, central Guatemala and south-central Campeche.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions, primarily
across Belize into northern Guatemala, the far southeast portion of
the Yucatan peninsula, the southern portion of the Mexican state of
Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas and far eastern Veracruz.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will likely raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near and to the north
of where the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and
extreme southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere,
a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is possible within the Tropical Storm
Warning area in eastern Yucatan and 1 to 3 feet for the Bay Islands
of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, and portions of Central America during the next
couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 021145
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lisa Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
700 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

...LISA BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE HEADED FOR BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 86.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM N OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bay Islands, Honduras
* The coast of Belize
* Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Entire north coast of Honduras
* North coast of Guatemala
* Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lisa was located
near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 86.7 West. Lisa is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will move just
north of the Bay Islands of Honduras this morning, make landfall in
Belize later today, and then cross northern Guatemala and move into
southeastern Mexico by Thursday.

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120
km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast as
Lisa approaches Belize. Weakening is expected after the center
makes landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of
Honduras in the next several hours and along the coast of Belize and
the southeastern Yucatan peninsula this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are expected along the northern coast of Honduras within
portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area this morning and in
Guatemala and Yucatan later today.

RAINFALL: Lisa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of:

4 to 6 inches with local amounts to 10 inches across Belize, the
Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala, the eastern portion of
the Mexican state of Chiapas, and the Mexican state of Tabasco.

2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across the far
southeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, northern Honduras,
and central Guatemala.

1 inch with local amounts to 2 inches across portions of the
Cayman Islands and eastern Nicaragua.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions, primarily
across Belize into northern Guatemala, the far southeast portion of
the Yucatan peninsula, the eastern portion of the Mexican state of
Chiapas, and the Mexican state of Tabasco.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will likely raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near and to the north
of where the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and
extreme southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere,
a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is possible within the Tropical Storm
Warning area in eastern Yucatan and 1 to 3 feet for the Bay Islands
of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, and portions of Central America during the next
couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 020839
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

A few hours ago, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
reported 850-mb flight-level winds of 67 kt in the northeastern
eyewall and estimated 55-60 kt surface winds from the Stepped
Frequency Microwave Radiometer. The minimum central pressure was
near 992 mb. Since then, satellite imagery and radar data from
Belize show little change in organization, and based on these
observations the initial intensity remains 60 kt.

Lisa has 12-18 h before it makes landfall in Belize, and the
cyclone is expected to become a hurricane during that time. The
forecast peak intensity of 75 kt is on the upper edge of the
intensity guidance. After landfall, the cyclone should weaken as
it crosses Belize and northern Guatemala into southeastern
Mexico. The center should emerge over the Bay of Campeche before
the 60 h point. However, strong upper-level winds should cause
enough shear to keep the cyclone from re-intensifying, and Lisa is
still forecast to weaken to a remnant low pressure area by 120 h.

The initial motion remains 280/13 kt. A ridge to the north will
continue to steer Lisa westward at a slightly reduced forward speed
through landfall. The storm is the expected to follow the flow
around a low- to mid-level ridge into the Bay of Campeche in 48-60
h. After that time, the increasingly shallow cyclone should turn
southward in the low-level flow. The new forecast track is similar
to, but a little faster than the previous track as the guidance is
in good agreement on a faster motion through 72 h.


Key Messages:

1. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where
the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and extreme
southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula starting this
afternoon.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras
this morning and along the coast of Belize and southeastern Yucatan
by this afternoon.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
north coast of Honduras and Guatemala in the next several hours,
and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical Storm
Warning areas beginning this afternoon.

4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize,
the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala, the southeastern
portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas, and the Mexican state of
Tabasco.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 17.1N 86.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 17.3N 87.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 17.5N 89.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 03/1800Z 17.6N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/0600Z 18.2N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 04/1800Z 19.0N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 05/0600Z 20.2N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 20.0N 94.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 19.0N 94.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 020838
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
0900 UTC WED NOV 02 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAY ISLANDS...HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
* CHETUMAL TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA...MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS
* NORTH COAST OF GUATEMALA
* PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LISA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 86.0W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 86.0W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 85.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.3N 87.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.5N 89.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.6N 91.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.2N 93.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.0N 94.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.2N 95.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 20.0N 94.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 19.0N 94.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 86.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 020838
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
400 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

...LISA MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF BELIZE...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 86.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bay Islands, Honduras
* The coast of Belize
* Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Entire north coast of Honduras
* North coast of Guatemala
* Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 86.0 West. Lisa is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion
with some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will move
near or north of the Bay Islands of Honduras this morning, make
landfall in Belize later today, and then cross northern Guatemala
into southeastern Mexico by Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Lisa is forecast to become a
hurricane during the next several hours over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and continue to intensify today as it approaches
Belize. Weakening is expected after the center makes landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of
Honduras in the next several hours and along the coast of Belize and
the southeastern Yucatan this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin along the northern coast of Honduras within
portions of the Tropical Storm Warning this morning and in
Guatemala and Yucatan later today.

RAINFALL: Lisa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of:

4 to 6 inches with local amounts to 10 inches across Belize, the
Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala, the eastern portion of
the Mexican state of Chiapas, and the Mexican state of Tabasco.

2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across the far
southeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, northern Honduras,
and central Guatemala.

1 inch with local amounts to 2 inches across portions of the
Cayman Islands and eastern Nicaragua.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions, primarily
across Belize into northern Guatemala, the far southeast portion of
the Yucatan peninsula, the eastern portion of the Mexican state of
Chiapas, and the Mexican state of Tabasco.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will likely raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near and to the north
of where the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and
extreme southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere,
a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is possible within the Tropical Storm
Warning area in eastern Yucatan and 1 to 3 feet for the Bay Islands
of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, and portions of Central America during the next
couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 020532
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
200 AM EDT Wed Nov 02 2022

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND LISA REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 85.4W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bay Islands, Honduras
* The coast of Belize
* Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Entire north coast of Honduras
* North coast of Guatemala
* Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 85.4 West. Lisa is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion
with some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will move
near or over the Bay Islands of Honduras this morning, move near
Belize later today and over southeastern Mexico on Thursday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Lisa is forecast
to become a hurricane during the next several hours over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and continue to intensify today as it
approaches Belize.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of
Honduras beginning this morning and along the coast of Belize and
the southeastern Yucatan this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin along the northern coast of Honduras within
the Tropical Storm Warning this morning and in Guatemala and
Yucatan later today.

RAINFALL: Lisa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of:

* 4 to 6 inches with local amounts to 10 inches across Belize, the
Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala and the eastern portion
of the Mexican state of Chiapas, and the Mexican state of Tabasco.
* 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across the far
southeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, northern Honduras,
and central Guatemala.
* 1 inch with local amounts to 2 inches across portions of the
Cayman Islands and eastern Nicaragua.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions, primarily
across Belize into northern Guatemala, the far southeast portion of
the Yucatan peninsula, the eastern portion of the Mexican state of
Chiapas, and the Mexican state of Tabasco.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will likely raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near and to the north
of where the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and
extreme southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere,
a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is possible within the Tropical Storm
Warning area in eastern Yucatan and 1 to 3 feet for the Bay Islands
of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, and portions of Central America during the next
couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 020409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.11.2022

TROPICAL STORM MARTIN ANALYSED POSITION : 35.1N 54.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.11.2022 35.1N 54.2W MODERATE
12UTC 02.11.2022 35.3N 50.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.11.2022 38.3N 46.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 03.11.2022 43.8N 40.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.11.2022 53.2N 35.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 04.11.2022 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM LISA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 84.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.11.2022 16.7N 84.1W WEAK
12UTC 02.11.2022 16.9N 87.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.11.2022 16.9N 89.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.11.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 020409

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 020248
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1100 PM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters have found that Lisa is
strengthening this evening. Lisa is a small storm, with
tropical-storm-force winds only extending out to 60 n mi from the
center. The minimum central pressure continues to fall, and the
latest estimate from the dropsonde observations is 993 mb. Data
from the SFMR and Tail Doppler Radar show that surface or
near-surface winds range between 55 to 60 kt, and the initial
intensity is increased to 60 kt.

Lisa is on a strengthening trend. Models suggest atmospheric and
oceanic conditions should be conducive for additional
intensification until the storm makes landfall in Belize within 24
hours. Therefore, steady to rapid intensification is still
possible. The official forecast shows a peak of 75 kt in 12 hours,
however the true peak intensity will likely occur between 12 and 24
hours and could be higher. Rapid weakening is expected after the
storm moves inland, and Lisa is forecast to be a tropical depression
in the Bay of Campeche in 72 to 96 hours and weaken to a remnant low
by the end of the forecast period.

The storm is moving just north of west at 280/13 kt. The track
reasoning is unchanged. A ridge to the north will continue to steer
Lisa westward at a slightly reduced forward speed through landfall
on Wednesday evening. The storm is expected to follow the flow
around the low-to-mid level ridge into the Bay of Campeche in 3 days
or so. The cyclone is then expected to turn southward in the
low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is shifted slightly
northward from the previous advisory in the short term, and the
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings have been adjusted northward
to account for this shift.


Key Messages:

1. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where
the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and extreme
southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula starting
Wednesday afternoon.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras
early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize and southeastern
Yucatan by Wednesday afternoon.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
north coast of Honduras and Guatemala beginning early Wednesday,
and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical
Storm Warning areas beginning Wednesday afternoon.

4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize,
the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala, the southeastern
portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas, and the Mexican state of
Tabasco.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 16.8N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 17.1N 86.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 17.4N 88.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 03/1200Z 17.4N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/0000Z 17.5N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 04/1200Z 18.2N 93.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/0000Z 19.0N 94.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/0000Z 19.7N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/0000Z 18.6N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 020247
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1100 PM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND LISA IS ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 84.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
southeastern Yucatan peninsula from Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya,
and extended the Tropical Storm Warning northward to Punta Allen.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bay Islands, Honduras
* The coast of Belize
* Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Entire north coast of Honduras
* North coast of Guatemala
* Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 84.7 West. Lisa is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion
with some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will move
near or over the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wednesday, move near
Belize late on Wednesday and over southeastern Mexico on Thursday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Further strengthening is expected, and Lisa is forecast to
become a hurricane overnight over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
continue to intensify on Wednesday as it approaches Belize.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure of 993 mb (29.33 inches) is based on
data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of
Honduras beginning early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize and
the southeastern Yucatan Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin along the northern coast of
Honduras within the Tropical Storm Warning overnight and in
Guatemala and Yucatan on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Lisa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of:

* 4 to 6 inches with local amounts to 10 inches across Belize, the
Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala and the eastern portion
of the Mexican state of Chiapas, and the Mexican state of Tabasco.
* 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across the far
southeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, northern Honduras,
and central Guatemala.
* 1 inch with local amounts to 2 inches across portions of the
Cayman Islands and eastern Nicaragua.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions, primarily
across Belize into northern Guatemala, the far southeast portion of
the Yucatan peninsula, the eastern portion of the Mexican state of
Chiapas, and the Mexican state of Tabasco.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will likely raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near and to the north
of where the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and
extreme southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere,
a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is possible within the Tropical Storm
Warning area in eastern Yucatan and 1 to 3 feet for the Bay Islands
of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, and portions of Central America during the next
couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 020247
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
0300 UTC WED NOV 02 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA...
AND EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAY ISLANDS...HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
* CHETUMAL TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA...MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS
* NORTH COAST OF GUATEMALA
* PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LISA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 84.7W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 84.7W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 84.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.1N 86.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.4N 88.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.4N 90.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.5N 91.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.2N 93.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.0N 94.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 19.7N 94.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 18.6N 93.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 84.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 012350
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
800 PM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

...AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING LISA THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 84.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bay Islands
* North of Puerto Barrios to south of Chetumal

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Entire north coast of Honduras
* North coast of Guatemala
* Chetumal to Punta Herrero, Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 84.0 West. Lisa is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion
with some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will move
near or over the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wednesday, move near
Belize late on Wednesday and over southeastern Mexico on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Further strengthening is expected, and Lisa is forecast to
become a hurricane overnight over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
continue to intensify on Wednesday as it approaches Belize.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure of 996 mb (29.41 inches) is based on
data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of
Honduras beginning early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize
Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin along the northern coast of Honduras within the Tropical
Storm Warning area tonight and in Guatemala and Yucatan on
Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Yucatan on
Wednesday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Lisa is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of:

* 4 to 6 inches with local amounts to 10 inches across Belize, the
Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala and the southeast
portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas.
* 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across the far
southeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, Northern Honduras,
and central Guatemala
* 1 inch with local amounts to 2 inches across portions of the
Cayman Islands and eastern Nicaragua.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions primarily
across Belize into northern Guatemala, the southeast portion of the
Mexican state of Chiapas and the far southeast portion of the
Yucatan peninsula.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will likely raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast of Belize in areas of onshore winds, with 2 to 4 feet
possible within the Hurricane Watch area in eastern Yucatan and 1
to 3 feet for the Bay Islands of Honduras. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, and portions of Central America during the next
couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 012051
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
500 PM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

Satellite images indicate that Lisa continues to become better
organized with a central dense overcast feature forming along with
more curved banding features. Dvorak estimates have increased as
well, and the current wind speed is set to 55 kt, closest to the
TAFB fix and near an average of the available values. Two Hurricane
Hunter aircraft, an Air Force C-130 and a NOAA P-3, should be
investigating Lisa this evening to get more in situ data.

Conditions look ripe for continued intensification. Other than some
lingering dry air, Lisa is moving over very warm waters, in low
shear, and has a small radius-of-maximum winds and an expanding
outflow pattern. These factors suggest a pretty notable chance of
rapid intensification, and the SHIPS index shows basically a coin
flip chance of a 25-kt wind speed increase within 24 hours.
Additionally, the regional hurricane models HWRF and HMON show Lisa
becoming a category 2 hurricane before landfall. The new NHC
forecast is similar to those models (note that further
intensification is possible between the 24h forecast and Belize
landfall) and a bit higher than the corrected-consensus guidance.

Lisa continues moving just north of due west or 280/13 kt. This
westward track with some reduction in forward speed is anticipated
due to the storm staying south of a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.
While the synoptic pattern is about the same as before, a
vertically deeper Lisa is more likely to feel upper-level
southeasterly flow and will probably not lose any latitude near
landfall. Thus, the latest forecast has been adjusted about 15-20
n mi north of the previous one with the model guidance nudging in
that direction.

With the northward adjustment and a stronger cyclone in the
forecast, more of the models are showing Lisa making it across
Central America and Mexico as a weak tropical cyclone into the
extreme southern Bay of Campeche on Friday. Although the new NHC
forecast now indicates this likelihood, Lisa isn't expected to
be a significant event there due to stronger shear, and
re-intensification is not indicated in the official forecast.


Key Messages:

1. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where
the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and for the southern
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula starting Wednesday afternoon.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras
early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize by Wednesday
afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern
Yucatan in the Hurricane Watch area Wednesday afternoon.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
north coast of Honduras and Guatemala beginning tonight into
Wednesday, and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical
Storm Warning areas beginning Wednesday afternoon.

4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize,
the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala and the southeast
portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas starting tonight through
Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 16.7N 83.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 17.0N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 17.2N 87.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 17.3N 88.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 03/1800Z 17.3N 90.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 04/0600Z 17.6N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 04/1800Z 18.4N 93.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 05/1800Z 19.8N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 06/1800Z 19.0N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 012050
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
500 PM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

...LISA FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 83.3W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bay Islands
* North of Puerto Barrios to south of Chetumal

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Entire north coast of Honduras
* North coast of Guatemala
* Chetumal to Punta Herrero, Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 83.3 West. Lisa is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion
with some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will move
near or over the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wednesday, move
near Belize late on Wednesday and over southeastern Mexico on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further strengthening is expected, and Lisa is
forecast to become a hurricane overnight over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and continue to intensify on Wednesday as it
approaches Belize.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of
Honduras beginning early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize
Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin along the northern coast of Honduras within the Tropical
Storm Warning area tonight and in Guatemala and Yucatan on
Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Yucatan on
Wednesday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Lisa is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of:

* 4 to 6 inches with local amounts to 10 inches across Belize, the
Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala and the southeast
portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas.
* 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across the far
southeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, Northern Honduras,
and central Guatemala
* 1 inch with local amounts to 2 inches across portions of the
Cayman Islands and eastern Nicaragua.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions primarily
across Belize into northern Guatemala, the southeast portion of the
Mexican state of Chiapas and the far southeast portion of the
Yucatan peninsula.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will likely raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast of Belize in areas of onshore winds, with 2 to 4 feet
possible within the Hurricane Watch area in eastern Yucatan and 1
to 3 feet for the Bay Islands of Honduras. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands and Central America during the next couple of
days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 012049
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
2100 UTC TUE NOV 01 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUERTO BARRIOS TO SOUTH OF CHETUMAL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA...MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS
* NORTH COAST OF GUATEMALA
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA HERRERO...MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LISA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 83.3W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 83.3W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 82.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.0N 85.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.2N 87.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.3N 88.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.3N 90.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.6N 91.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.4N 93.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.8N 94.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N 93.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 83.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 011749
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
200 PM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 82.5W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Belize has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
entire coast of Belize from north of Puerto Barrios Guatemala to
south of Chetumal Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bay Islands
* North of Puerto Barrios to south of Chetumal

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Entire north coast of Honduras
* North coast of Guatemala
* Chetumal to Punta Herrero, Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was
located by satellite imagery near latitude 16.5 North, longitude
82.5 West. Lisa is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h).
This general motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center
of Lisa will move near or over the Bay Islands of Honduras early
Wednesday, and move near Belize late on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Lisa is forecast to become a
hurricane overnight over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and continue
to intensify on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of
Honduras beginning early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize
Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin along the northern coast of Honduras within the Tropical
Storm Warning area tonight and in Guatemala and Yucatan on
Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Yucatan on
Wednesday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Lisa is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of:

* 4 to 6 inches with local amounts to 10 inches across Belize, the
Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala and the southeast
portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas.
* 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across the far
southeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, Northern Honduras,
and central Guatemala
* 1 inch with local amounts to 2 inches across portions of the
Cayman Islands and eastern Nicaragua.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions primarily
across Belize into northern Guatemala, the southeast portion of the
Mexican state of Chiapas and the far southeast portion of the
Yucatan peninsula.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will likely raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast of Belize in areas of onshore winds, with 2 to 4 feet
possible within the Hurricane Watch area in eastern Yucatan and 1
to 3 feet for the Bay Islands of Honduras. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands and Central America for next day or two. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 011458
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1100 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has provided
critical data with Lisa this morning, showing that the storm has
started to intensify. Flight-level winds have increased to
55 kt, with SFMR winds of 50-55 kt, and surface-reduced dropsonde
data of about 50 kt. Thus, the initial wind speed is set to 50 kt
as a blend of these data, above the latest satellite
classifications.

Further intensification is likely with Lisa now having a small
radius-of-maximum winds in light vertical wind shear, along with
the deep warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean providing ample
fuel. The NHC intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening
and shows Lisa becoming a hurricane in less than a day when it is
near the Bay Islands of Honduras, and Lisa should intensify as it
approaches Belize. For now, rapid intensification is not forecast,
but since the percentage chances of this occurrence from SHIPS are
increasing, this possibility must be mentioned and the new forecast
is higher than the bulk of the guidance. After landfall, rapid
weakening is expected and Lisa is forecast to degenerate to a
post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours and dissipate shortly
thereafter.

Lisa continues moving just north of due west or 280/12 kt. No
significant changes were made to the track forecast. A strong low-
to mid-level ridge located to the north of Lisa should keep the
tropical cyclone on a generally westward track during the next
couple of days. This motion is expected to bring the core of the
cyclone near the Bay Islands of Honduras by early Wednesday, and
across the coast of Belize by late Wednesday. The dynamical models
remain in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track is near the
middle of the guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras
early Wednesday and possible along the coast of Belize by
Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern
Yucatan in the Hurricane Watch area Wednesday afternoon.

2. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where
the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and for the southern
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
north coast of Honduras and Guatemala beginning tonight into
Wednesday, and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical
Storm Warning areas beginning Wednesday afternoon.

4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize,
the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala and the southeast
portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas starting tonight through
Thursday.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 16.3N 81.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 16.6N 83.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 16.8N 86.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 17.0N 88.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 17.0N 89.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 04/0000Z 17.0N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 04/1200Z 17.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 011457
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1100 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR STRENGTHENING LISA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 81.8W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
Bay Islands.

The government of Guatemala has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to
a Tropical Storm Warning for the entire Caribbean coast.

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Chetumal
to Puerto Costa Maya, and a Tropical Storm Warning from Chetumal to
Punta Herrero.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bay Islands

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Puerto Barrios to Puerto Costa Maya

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Entire north coast of Honduras
* North coast of Guatemala
* Chetumal to Punta Herrero

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 16.3 North, longitude 81.8 West. Lisa is moving toward the
west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion with some decrease
in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Lisa will pass south of the Cayman
Islands today, move near or over the Bay Islands of Honduras early
Wednesday, and approach Belize later on Wednesday.

Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Further
strengthening is expected, and Lisa is forecast to become a
hurricane overnight over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
continue to intensify on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches)
based on dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of
Honduras beginning early Wednesday and are becoming likely along the
coast of Belize Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin along the northern coast of Honduras within the
Tropical Storm Warning area tonight and in Guatemala and Yucatan on
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Lisa is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of:

* 4 to 6 inches with local amounts to 10 inches across Belize, the
Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala and the southeast
portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas.
* 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across the far
southeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, Northern Honduras,
and central Guatemala
* 1 inch with local amounts to 2 inches across portions of the
Cayman Islands and eastern Nicaragua.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions primarily
across Belize into northern Guatemala, the southeast portion of the
Mexican state of Chiapas and the far southeast portion of the
Yucatan peninsula.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will likely raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast of Belize in areas of onshore winds, with 2 to 4 feet
possible within the Hurricane Watch area in eastern Yucatan and 1
to 3 feet for the Bay Islands of Honduras. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica and
the Cayman Islands and Central America for next day or two. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 011456
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
1500 UTC TUE NOV 01 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
BAY ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM CHETUMAL
TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CHETUMAL
TO PUNTA HERRERO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAY ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUERTO BARRIOS TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS
* NORTH COAST OF GUATEMALA
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA HERRERO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LISA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 81.8W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 81.8W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 81.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.6N 83.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.8N 86.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.0N 88.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.0N 89.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.0N 90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.5N 92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 81.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 011153
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
800 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

...LISA POISED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 81.1W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bay Islands
* Belize coast from north of Puerto Barrios to south of Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bay Islands
* Entire north coast of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guatemala from border with Honduras to Puerto Barrios
* Mexico from Chetumal to Punta Herrero.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa. Tropical Storm and
Hurricane Warnings will likely be required for portions of the
coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 81.1 West. Lisa is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion
with some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will pass
south of the Cayman Islands today, move near or over the Bay Islands
of Honduras early Wednesday, and approach Belize later on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Lisa is forecast to become a
hurricane by early Wednesday over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Bay Islands of
Honduras beginning early Wednesday and are possible along the coast
of Belize Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
expected along the northern coast of Honduras within the Tropical
Storm Warning area tonight through Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Mexico
and Guatemala beginning Wednesday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Lisa is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of:

* 3 to 5 inches with local amounts to 8 inches across portions
of Belize and the Bay Islands of Honduras.
* 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across portions
of Jamaica, eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Northern Honduras, and
Guatemala.
* 1 inch with local amounts to 2 inches across portions of the
Cayman Islands and eastern Nicaragua.

This rainfall could produce flash floods from northern Honduras
northward to the eastern Yucatan peninsula.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize in areas of onshore winds and 1 to 3 feet for the Bay Islands
of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica and
the Cayman Islands during the next day or so, and will begin to
affect Central America later today. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 010841
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
500 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

Deep convection associated with Lisa has continued to expand
overnight, and there has also been some increase in banding
noted in infrared satellite imagery. However, data from an earlier
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft suggest that this has not
yet resulted in an increase in intensity. The plane found
flight-level and SFMR winds to support an initial intensity of
40 kt, and that is the basis for the advisory intensity. Another
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route
to investigate the cyclone this morning.

Lisa appears poised to strengthen given the recent increase in
organization and expected favorable environmental conditions. The
storm will be traversing SSTs of around 29 degrees Celsius and
remain within an area of low to moderate vertical wind shear. As a
result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening,
and shows Lisa becoming a hurricane in 24 to 36 hours when it is
near the Bay Islands of Honduras. The NHC wind speed forecast
follows the ICON and HFIP corrected consensus aids, which is
between the higher regional hurricane models and the lower
statistical aids. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected and
Lisa is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by 72
hours and dissipate shortly thereafter.

The tropical storm is moving just north of due west or 280/12 kt.
A strong low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of Lisa
should keep the tropical cyclone on a generally westward track
during the next couple of days. This motion is expected to bring
the core of the cyclone near the Bay Islands of Honduras by early
Wednesday, and across the coast of Belize by late Wednesday. The
dynamical models remain in relatively good agreement, and the NHC
track is near the middle of the guidance envelope. The updated
track forecast is slightly north of the previous track at 12 and
24 hours, but is very similar to the earlier official forecast
thereafter.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Bay Islands of Honduras
early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize by Wednesday
afternoon, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
north coast of Honduras, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been
issued. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Caribbean coast
of Guatemala, and the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico,
where tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Wednesday
afternoon.

3. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and northern Honduras, including
the Bay Islands starting late Tuesday through Thursday.

4. There is potential for a dangerous storm surge near where the
core of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 16.0N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 16.4N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 16.7N 84.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 16.9N 87.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 17.0N 88.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 03/1800Z 17.0N 90.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 04/0600Z 17.0N 91.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 010841
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
500 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

...LISA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TODAY...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 80.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
along the northern coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward
to the Guatemala border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bay Islands
* Belize coast from north of Puerto Barrios to south of Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bay Islands
* Entire north coast of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guatemala from border with Honduras to Puerto Barrios
* Mexico from Chetumal to Punta Herrero.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa. Tropical Storm and
Hurricane Warnings will likely be required for portions of the
coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 80.5 West. Lisa is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion
with some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will pass
south of the Cayman Islands today, move near or over the Bay Islands
of Honduras early Wednesday, and approach Belize later on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected, and Lisa is forecast to become a
hurricane by early Wednesday over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Bay Islands of
Honduras beginning early Wednesday and are possible along the coast
of Belize Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
expected along the northern coast of Honduras within the Tropical
Storm Warning area tonight through Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Mexico
and Guatemala beginning Wednesday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Tropical Storm Lisa is expected
to produce rainfall amounts of:

* 3 to 5 inches with local amounts to 8 inches across portions
of Belize and the Bay Islands of Honduras.
* 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across portions
of Jamaica, eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Northern Honduras, and
Guatemala.
* 1 inch with local amounts to 2 inches across portions of the
Cayman Islands and eastern Nicaragua.

This rainfall could produce flash floods from northern Honduras
northward to the eastern Yucatan peninsula.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize in areas of onshore winds and 1 to 3 feet for the Bay Islands
of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica and
the Cayman Islands during the next day or so, and will begin to
affect Central America later today. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 010840
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
0900 UTC TUE NOV 01 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA WESTWARD
TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAY ISLANDS
* BELIZE COAST FROM NORTH OF PUERTO BARRIOS TO SOUTH OF CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAY ISLANDS
* ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUATEMALA FROM BORDER WITH HONDURAS TO PUERTO BARRIOS
* MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA HERRERO.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LISA. TROPICAL STORM AND
HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 80.5W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 80.5W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 79.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.4N 82.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.7N 84.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.9N 87.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.0N 88.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.0N 90.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.0N 91.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 80.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 010545
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
200 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

...LISA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 79.8W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bay Islands
* Belize coast from north of Puerto Barrios to south of Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bay Islands
* Honduras from the border with Nicaragua to Punta Castilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Honduras from west of Punta Castilla westward to the
Guatemala border
* Guatemala from border with Honduras to Puerto Barrios
* Mexico from Chetumal to Punta Herrero.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 79.8 West. Lisa is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center will pass south of the Cayman Islands today,
move near or over the Bay Islands of Honduras early on Wednesday,
and approach Belize later on Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and Lisa is forecast to
become a hurricane by early Wednesday over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Bay Islands of
Honduras beginning early Wednesday and are possible along the coast
of Belize Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
expected along the northeastern coast of Honduras within the
Tropical Storm Warning area tonight and Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Mexico,
Honduras, and Guatemala Wednesday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Lisa is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of:

* 3 to 5 inches with local amounts to 8 inches across portions
of Belize and the Bay Islands of Honduras.
* 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across portions
of Northern Honduras, Jamaica, Guatemala and the eastern Yucatan
peninsula.
* 1 inch with local amounts to 2 inches across portions of the
Cayman Islands, eastern Nicaragua.

This rainfall could produce flash floods from northern Honduras
northward to the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize in areas of onshore winds and 1 to 3 feet for the Bay Islands
of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica and
the Cayman Islands during the next day or so, and will begin to
affect Central America later today. These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 010409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.11.2022

TROPICAL STORM 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 35.1N 59.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.11.2022 35.1N 59.3W WEAK
12UTC 01.11.2022 35.4N 56.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.11.2022 35.3N 54.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.11.2022 35.7N 51.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.11.2022 38.8N 46.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.11.2022 43.1N 40.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.11.2022 51.0N 36.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 04.11.2022 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM LISA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 78.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.11.2022 15.7N 78.5W WEAK
12UTC 01.11.2022 16.7N 81.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.11.2022 17.3N 84.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.11.2022 17.0N 87.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.11.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010409

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 010258
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

Lisa is gradually becoming better organized with the associated
convection deepening and expanding around the center. However, the
system still lacks banding features. The Air Force Hurricane
Hunters are currently investigating Lisa and so far have found
flight-level winds as high as 46 kt and peak SFMR winds of about 35
kt. This data supports maintaining the initial intensity of 40 kt.

The tropical storm is moving westward at about 10 kt. The track
forecast reasoning seems fairly straightforward. A low- to
mid-level ridge situated to the north of Lisa is expected to build
westward. This pattern should keep the storm on a steady westward
path, bringing the core of the cyclone near or just north of the Bay
Islands of Honduras late Tuesday night/early Wednesday and across
Belize by late Wednesday. The models are in fairly good agreement
through landfall, and the NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous one during the next couple of days. After landfall, the
models diverge with some solutions showing a northwest track and
others a southwest motion. The NHC track forecast continues to split
the difference, and it is a touch south of the previous one to be a
little closer to the various consensus models.

The environmental conditions appear relatively favorable for Lisa
to strengthen during the next 36 to 48 hours. SSTs are quite warm
beneath the cyclone and the vertical wind shear is expected to be
low to moderate. There is some dry air near the system, however,
which might slow the rate of intensification. The NHC intensity
forecast follows the trend of the consensus models and continues to
show Lisa becoming a hurricane when it is over the Gulf of Honduras
early Wednesday, and it is expected to maintain that intensity when
it makes landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after the system
moves inland, and even though the forecast shows a 96-h point, it
is certainty possible that Lisa could have dissipated by then.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Bay Islands of Honduras
early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize by Wednesday
afternoon, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
north coast of Honduras, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been
issued. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the
remainder of the coast of Honduras, the Caribbean coast of
Guatemala, and the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, where
tropical storm conditions are possible.

3. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras, including
the Bay Islands, starting late Tuesday continuing through Thursday.

4. There is potential for a dangerous storm surge near where the
core of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 15.6N 79.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 16.0N 81.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 16.4N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 16.8N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 16.9N 88.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
60H 03/1200Z 16.8N 89.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 04/0000Z 16.8N 91.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0000Z 17.0N 93.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 010254
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
0300 UTC TUE NOV 01 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
THE BORDER WITH NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR JAMAICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAY ISLANDS
* BELIZE COAST FROM NORTH OF PUERTO BARRIOS TO SOUTH OF CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAY ISLANDS
* HONDURAS FROM THE BORDER WITH NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS
* GUATEMALA FROM BORDER WITH HONDURAS TO PUERTO BARRIOS
* MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA HERRERO.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LISA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 79.1W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 79.1W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 78.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.0N 81.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.4N 83.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.8N 86.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.9N 88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.8N 89.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.8N 91.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 17.0N 93.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 79.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 010254
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

...LISA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL AMERICA...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE AND THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 79.1W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
the border with Nicaragua to Punta Castilla.

The government of Jamaica has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for Jamaica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bay Islands
* Belize coast from north of Puerto Barrios to south of Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bay Islands
* Honduras from the border with Nicaragua to Punta Castilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire north coast of Honduras
* Guatemala from border with Honduras to Puerto Barrios
* Mexico from Chetumal to Punta Herrero.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 79.1 West. Lisa is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center will pass south of the Cayman Islands on Tuesday,
move near or over the Bay Islands of Honduras early on Wednesday,
and approach Belize later on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected, and Lisa is forecast to become a
hurricane by early Wednesday over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Bay Islands of
Honduras beginning early Wednesday and are possible along the coast
of Belize Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
possible along the coast of Honduras Tuesday night through
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical
Storm Watch area in Mexico, Honduras, and Guatemala Wednesday
afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Lisa is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of:

* 3 to 5 inches with local amounts to 8 inches across portions
of Belize and the Bay Islands of Honduras.
* 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across portions
of Northern Honduras, Jamaica, Guatemala and the eastern Yucatan
peninsula.
* 1 inch with local amounts to 2 inches across portions of the
Cayman Islands, eastern Nicaragua.

This rainfall could produce flash floods from northern Honduras
northward to the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize in areas of onshore winds and 1 to 3 feet for the Bay Islands
of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica and
the Cayman Islands during the next day or so, and will begin to
affect Central America on Tuesday. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 312348
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

...LISA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 78.9W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bay Islands
* Belize coast from north of Puerto Barrios to south of Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bay Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Entire north coast of Honduras
* Guatemala from border with Honduras to Puerto Barrios
* Mexico from Chetumal to Punta Herrero.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 78.9 West. Lisa is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center will pass south of Jamaica tonight,
south of the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, then move near or over the
Bay Islands of Honduras early on Wednesday and approach Belize
later on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is expected, and Lisa is forecast to
become a hurricane on Wednesday over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Bay Islands of
Honduras beginning early Wednesday and are possible along the coast
of Belize Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
possible on Jamaica tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible
on the coast of Honduras Tuesday night through Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in
Mexico, Honduras, and Guatemala Wednesday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Lisa is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of:

* 3 to 5 inches with local amounts to 8 inches across portions
of Belize and the Bay Islands of Honduras.
* 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across portions
of Northern Honduras, Jamaica, Guatemala and the eastern Yucatan
peninsula.
* 1 inch with local amounts to 2 inches across portions of the
Cayman Islands, eastern Nicaragua.

This rainfall could produce flash floods from northern Honduras
northward to the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize in areas of onshore winds and 1 to 3 feet for the Bay Islands
of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica and
the Cayman Islands during the next day or so, and will begin to
affect Central America on Tuesday. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 312057
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

Satellite images indicate that Lisa is becoming better organized.
A large ball of convection has formed just southeast of the center,
and banding features are becoming more prominent northwest of the
center. Additionally, wind data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft showed that the low-level circulation was becoming
less elongated, with a more circular pattern on the final pass.
The plane found maximum 1500 ft flight-level winds of 49 kt and
numerous SFMR values of 35 kt during the mission. This was the
basis for the 40 kt initial wind speed on the intermediate, and that
value is kept for this advisory.

Cirrus cloud motions are showing that the upper-level flow near Lisa
is changing from westerly to easterly, with outflow also increasing
in the western quadrant. This change suggests that the shear is
abating near the tropical cyclone. While oceanic conditions are
also favorable for strengthening, there is still a fair bit of dry
air aloft that Lisa will have to encounter, which could temper
intensification rates. Overall, gradual strengthening is expected,
and the new forecast is similar to the previous one. Interestingly,
the model guidance is stronger than the last cycle, perhaps due to
the aircraft data, and is now more consistent with the latest NHC
intensity prediction.

Aircraft fixes show that Lisa continues to move westward at about 12
kt. There have been no changes to the synoptic pattern with the
storm forecast to move westward to west-northwestward for the next
day or two under a mid-level ridge to the north. Lisa should move
westward or possibly a little south-of-west while it approaches
Belize on Wednesday due to the ridge strengthening. Model guidance
remains in very good agreement and, similar to the last advisory, a
small southward adjustment was made to the previous forecast, with
the core of Lisa impacting Belize on Wednesday. We will have to
monitor whether some portion of Lisa tries to pull a trick in the
southern Bay of Campeche at long range with some models suggesting
that a portion of the circulation could make it there, but that's
not considered likely at this time.

Hurricane watches have been issued for the Bay Islands of Honduras
and Belize due to the new forecast and timing, with tropical storm
watches on the Caribbean coasts of Honduras and Guatemala and
portions of the southeastern Yucatan peninsula of Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Bay Islands of Honduras
early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize by Wednesday
afternoon, where a Hurricane Watch has been issued. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of Jamaica, the north coast of
Honduras, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala and the southeastern
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

2. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras, including
the Bay Islands, starting late Tuesday continuing through Thursday.

3. There is potential for a dangerous storm surge near where the
core of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 15.5N 78.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 15.7N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 16.2N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 16.7N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 17.0N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 16.9N 89.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 03/1800Z 16.9N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 04/1800Z 17.5N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 312053
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
2100 UTC MON OCT 31 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAY ISLANDS...PLUS A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF THE COUNTRY.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE FROM NORTH OF PUERTO BARRIOS GUATEMALA
NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTH COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM THE BORDER WITH HONDURAS WESTWARD
TO PUERTO BARRIOS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA HERRERO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAY ISLANDS
* BELIZE COAST FROM NORTH OF PUERTO BARRIOS TO SOUTH OF CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAY ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS
* GUATEMALA FROM BORDER WITH HONDURAS TO PUERTO BARRIOS
* MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA HERRERO.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LISA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 78.4W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 78.4W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 77.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 15.7N 80.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.2N 82.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.7N 85.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.0N 87.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.9N 89.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.9N 90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 17.5N 93.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 78.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 312053
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS AND
THE COAST OF BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 78.4W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 665 MI...1065 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Watch and a
Tropical Storm Warning for the Bay Islands of Honduras, plus a
Tropical Storm Watch for the entire north coast of the country.

The government of Belize has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
entire coast of Belize from north of Puerto Barrios Guatemala
northward to south of Chetumal Mexico.

The government of Guatemala has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the Caribbean coast of Guatemala from the border with Honduras
westward to Puerto Barrios.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Mexico from Chetumal to Punta Herrero.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bay Islands
* Belize coast from north of Puerto Barrios to south of Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bay Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Entire north coast of Honduras
* Guatemala from border with Honduras to Puerto Barrios
* Mexico from Chetumal to Punta Herrero.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 78.4 West. Lisa is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center will pass south of Jamaica today,
south of the Cayman Islands tomorrow, then move near or over the Bay
Islands of Honduras early on Wednesday and approach Belize later on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Lisa is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Bay Islands of
Honduras beginning early Wednesday and are possible along the coast
of Belize on Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
possible on Jamaica today. Tropical storm conditions are possible
on the coast of Honduras beginning Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in Mexico, Honduras, and Guatemala Wednesday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Lisa is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of:

* 3 to 5 inches with local amounts to 8 inches across portions
of Belize and the Bay Islands of Honduras.
* 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across portions
of Northern Honduras, Jamaica, Guatemala and the eastern Yucatan
peninsula.
* 1 inch with local amounts to 2 inches across portions of the
Cayman Islands, eastern Nicaragua.

This rainfall could produce flash floods from northern Honduras
northward to the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize in areas of onshore winds and 1 to 3 feet for the Bay Islands
of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica and
the Cayman Islands during the next couple of days, and begin to
affect Central America tomorrow. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 311752
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

...LISA A LITTLE STRONGER SOUTH OF JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 77.6W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within about 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of Central America, especially
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely
be required tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 77.6 West. Lisa is
moving toward the west near 14 mph, and a westward to west-
northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center will pass south of Jamaica today, south
of the Cayman Islands tomorrow, and approach Central America on
Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75
km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the
next few days, and Lisa could become a hurricane over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches)


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica today.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Lisa is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of 1 inch, with local amounts to 2 inches across
portions of the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, and eastern
Nicaragua. For Jamaica and Guatemala, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches are expected, with localized totals of 6 inches. For
Belize, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected with
localized totals as high as 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica and
the Cayman Islands during the next couple of days, and begin to
affect Central America tomorrow. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 311611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 31.10.2022

TROPICAL STORM 15L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 76.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.10.2022 0 15.5N 76.8W 1006 28
0000UTC 01.11.2022 12 15.6N 79.0W 1006 29
1200UTC 01.11.2022 24 16.4N 81.6W 1007 31
0000UTC 02.11.2022 36 17.3N 84.8W 1009 26
1200UTC 02.11.2022 48 16.9N 86.9W 1009 28
0000UTC 03.11.2022 60 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.7N 61.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.10.2022 0 34.7N 61.7W 1005 34
0000UTC 01.11.2022 12 34.9N 59.7W 1004 34
1200UTC 01.11.2022 24 34.4N 57.6W 1007 29
0000UTC 02.11.2022 36 34.3N 54.3W 1005 32
1200UTC 02.11.2022 48 35.5N 51.6W 999 30
0000UTC 03.11.2022 60 37.5N 47.4W 991 37
1200UTC 03.11.2022 72 41.0N 41.3W 982 54
0000UTC 04.11.2022 84 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 311611

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 311611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 31.10.2022

TROPICAL STORM 15L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 76.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.10.2022 15.5N 76.8W WEAK
00UTC 01.11.2022 15.6N 79.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.11.2022 16.4N 81.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.11.2022 17.3N 84.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.11.2022 16.9N 86.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.11.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.7N 61.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.10.2022 34.7N 61.7W WEAK
00UTC 01.11.2022 34.9N 59.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.11.2022 34.4N 57.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.11.2022 34.3N 54.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.11.2022 35.5N 51.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.11.2022 37.5N 47.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.11.2022 41.0N 41.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.11.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 311611

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 311453
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

GOES-16 1-minute visible imagery indicates that the low-level
circulation of the system has closed off again, although the system
is still a bit elongated north-to-south. Westerly shear has caused
the center to be exposed to the west and north of the primary
convective banding features. NOAA Hurricane Hunter tail Doppler
radar data also show that the low is tilted southeastward with
height, a reflection of the current shear. Still, the plane had
numerous SFMR values of around 35 kt, and dropsonde data showed the
pressure has dropped to 1003 mb. These values are sufficient to
call the system a tropical storm with an initial wind speed of 35
kt.

After a dip southward overnight, Lisa is moving westward again at
about 12 kt. The storm should move westward to west-northwestward
for the next day or two under a mid-level ridge to the north. As
the ridge intensifies in a few days, Lisa is likely to move
westward, or possibly a little south-of-west, while it approaches
Belize. Model guidance remains in very good agreement, and
only a small southward adjustment was made to the previous forecast.

Lisa should encounter more conducive atmospheric and oceanic
conditions for the next few days, with increasing mid-level
humidities and generally lower shear. The storm will likely still
have some bouts with drier air infiltrating in the northwestern
quadrant of the circulation, but the diminishing shear should lessen
the impact of this factor. Thus slow intensification is shown for
the next few days, consistent with the interpolated previous
forecast. It should be noted that the new NHC forecast is on the
high side of the guidance for this cycle, with a notable decrease of
the forecast intensity in many of the models. The official
forecast is lower than the previous one, owing to the model trend,
but it is preferable to wait another cycle to make any larger
changes after the model suite ingests the plentiful aircraft data
for the 12 UTC suite.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica today.

2. Interests along the coast of Central America, especially near
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required by late today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 15.5N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 15.8N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 16.3N 81.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 16.8N 83.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 17.1N 86.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 17.1N 88.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 16.7N 90.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 311450
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM LISA IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...
...EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 77.3W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands is discontinuing the Tropical
Storm Watch for Grand Cayman Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within about 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of Central America, especially
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely
be required tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 77.3 West. Lisa is
moving toward the west near 14 mph, and a westward to west-
northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center will pass south of Jamaica today, south
of the Cayman Islands tomorrow, and approach Central America on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Lisa could become a hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft dropsonde data is 1003 mb (29.62 inches)


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica today.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Lisa is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of 1 inch, with local amounts to 2 inches across
portions of the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, and eastern
Nicaragua. For Jamaica and Guatemala, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches are expected, with localized totals of 6 inches. For
Belize, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected with
localized totals as high as 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica and
the Cayman Islands during the next couple of days, and begin to
affect Central America tomorrow. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 311448
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
1500 UTC MON OCT 31 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IS DISCONTINUING THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 77.3W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 77.3W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 76.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 15.8N 79.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.3N 81.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.8N 83.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.1N 86.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.1N 88.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.7N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 77.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 311151
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 76.7W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman Island

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of Central America, especially
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely
be required early this week.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.6 North, longitude 76.7 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward
motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track,
the center will pass south of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands today
through tomorrow and approach Central America on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical storm later
today. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days and
the system could be near hurricane strength by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft dropsonde data is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Jamaica beginning today and are possible on Grand
Cayman Island on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday morning, the system is expected to
produce rainfall amounts of 1 inch, with local amounts to 2 inches
across portions of Hispaniola, the Cayman Islands, northern
Honduras, and eastern Nicaragua. For Jamaica and Belize, rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with localized totals of 6
inches in Belize. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the next couple of days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 310842
TCDAT5

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
500 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

The system has changed little in organization overnight. Deep
convection is not very extensive at this time and convective banding
features are rather limited, as evidenced by a Dvorak classification
of T1.0 from TAFB. Thus, the disturbance still lacks sufficient
organized convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone.
Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
scatterometer data indicate that the circulation is somewhat
elongated from south to north, and the maximum winds are 30-35 kt.
Satellite images show that the broad center is located just to the
west of the main area of deep convection.

The disturbance continues moving generally westward, or around
270/10 kt. A mid-level anticyclone to the north of the system
should maintain a westward to west-northwestward track for the next
48 hours or so. Then, as the high shifts westward, the system is
forecast to turn west-southwestward when it nears the coast of
Belize or eastern Yucatan. The official track forecast is close to
the model consensus and not much different from the previous NHC
prediction. It should be noted, however, that the the forecast
track could undergo some additional adjustments until the
circulation center becomes better defined.

It is expected that the system will acquire sufficient convective
organization to make the transition to a tropical cyclone in 12
hours or so. During the next couple of days, the system/tropical
cyclone will be traversing very warm waters and moving through a
fairly moist air mass. Also, the upper-level winds are forecast by
the global models to become increasingly anticyclonic which should
enhance the outflow over the area. Therefore strengthening appears
likely and the official forecast continues to call for hurricane
status before landfall in Belize or the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.
This is near or above the latest intensity consensus guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm
Watch areas beginning today for Jamaica and on Tuesday for Grand
Cayman Island.

2. Interests along the coast of Central America, especially near
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required early this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 15.8N 76.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 31/1800Z 16.1N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 01/0600Z 16.4N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 16.8N 82.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 17.2N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 17.4N 86.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 17.2N 88.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
96H 04/0600Z 16.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 310842
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
500 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

...DISTURBANCE LIKELY TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 76.1W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman Island

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of Central America, especially
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely
be required early this week.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.8 North, longitude 76.1 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward
motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track,
the center will pass south of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands today
and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is expected to become a tropical storm later today.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days and
the system could be near hurricane strength by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Jamaica beginning today and are possible on Grand
Cayman Island on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday morning, the system is expected to
produce rainfall amounts of 1 inch, with local amounts to 2 inches
across portions of Hispaniola, the Cayman Islands, northern
Honduras, and eastern Nicaragua. For Jamaica and Belize, rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with localized totals of 6
inches in Belize. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the next couple of days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 310841
TCMAT5

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
0900 UTC MON OCT 31 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED EARLY THIS WEEK.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 76.1W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 76.1W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 75.5W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.1N 77.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.4N 79.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.8N 82.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.2N 84.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.4N 86.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.2N 88.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 16.0N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 76.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 310545
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 75.5W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman Island

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of Central America, especially
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely
be required early this week.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.8 North, longitude 75.5 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a westward to west-northwestward
motion is expected during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is expected, and the system could become a
tropical storm later today. A faster rate of strengthening is
expected starting tonight, and the system could be near hurricane
strength Tuesday night or Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Jamaica beginning this afternoon and are possible on Grand
Cayman Island on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through Wednesday evening, the system is expected to
produce rainfall amounts of 1 inch, with local amounts to 2 inches
across portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,
the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, and
Belize. For Jamaica, rainfall amounts of 2 inches with local
amounts of 4 inches are expected. This degree of rainfall could
lead to flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the next couple of days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 310410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 31.10.2022

TROPICAL STORM 15L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 74.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.10.2022 0 15.7N 74.7W 1006 27
1200UTC 31.10.2022 12 15.6N 76.4W 1007 28
0000UTC 01.11.2022 24 16.4N 78.5W 1006 32
1200UTC 01.11.2022 36 17.2N 81.8W 1008 33
0000UTC 02.11.2022 48 17.8N 84.4W 1008 28
1200UTC 02.11.2022 60 17.6N 86.9W 1009 28
0000UTC 03.11.2022 72 17.4N 88.1W 1010 29
1200UTC 03.11.2022 84 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.9N 62.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.10.2022 0 34.9N 62.9W 1005 36
1200UTC 31.10.2022 12 33.9N 63.2W 1005 36
0000UTC 01.11.2022 24 33.4N 60.3W 1007 32
1200UTC 01.11.2022 36 33.7N 57.6W 1009 26
0000UTC 02.11.2022 48 33.3N 56.1W 1010 24
1200UTC 02.11.2022 60 32.5N 54.4W 1009 23
0000UTC 03.11.2022 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 10.9N 79.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.11.2022 120 10.9N 79.9W 1007 23
1200UTC 05.11.2022 132 11.1N 78.7W 1007 26
0000UTC 06.11.2022 144 11.8N 77.1W 1006 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 310410

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 310410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 31.10.2022

TROPICAL STORM 15L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 74.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.10.2022 15.7N 74.7W WEAK
12UTC 31.10.2022 15.6N 76.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.11.2022 16.4N 78.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.11.2022 17.2N 81.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.11.2022 17.8N 84.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.11.2022 17.6N 86.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.11.2022 17.4N 88.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.11.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.9N 62.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.10.2022 34.9N 62.9W WEAK
12UTC 31.10.2022 33.9N 63.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.11.2022 33.4N 60.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.11.2022 33.7N 57.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.11.2022 33.3N 56.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.11.2022 32.5N 54.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.11.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 10.9N 79.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.11.2022 10.9N 79.9W WEAK
12UTC 05.11.2022 11.1N 78.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.11.2022 11.8N 77.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 310410

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 310234
TCDAT5

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022

Satellite imagery and data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate there has been little change in the structure of the
disturbance this evening. Satellite imagery shows that the
low-level center is apparent in satellite imagery between two areas
of disorganized convection to the northwest of a loosely-curved
convective band. The aircraft data shows that the circulation at
460 mb is located to the southeast of the surface center and is not
well defined at that level. Dropsondes to the northeast of the
center showed surface winds of 30 kt, and drops near the center
suggest the central pressure is near 1005 mb. Based on these data,
the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

The estimated initial motion is a little to the left of the
previous advisory, 280/10 kt. A general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 48 h or so
due to the presence of a westward moving mid-level ridge north of
the center. After that time, the ridge should build a little
faster toward the west and southwest, resulting in a south of west
motion as the system approaches Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico just after 72 h. The forecast guidance has shifted
southward through 60 h, and the new forecast track is nudged in
that direction. However, the new track lies to the north of the
various consensus models. It should be noted that the the forecast
track could undergo some additional adjustments until the
circulation center becomes better defined.

A combination of the current disorganized structure, moderate
west-northwesterly shear, and weakly convergent upper-level flow
should limit intensification for the next 12-24 h. However, the
system is still expected to become a tropical storm in about 12 h
when the convection increases during the diurnal maximum. After 24
h, increased upper-level divergence, decreased shear, and better
organization should allow a faster development rate, and the system
is expected to steadily strengthen. The new intensity forecast
follows the previous forecast in calling for the system to become a
hurricane before landfall in Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula, with a
forecast peak intensity of 70 kt being near the upper edge of the
intensity guidance.

No changes to the current watches are required at this time. A
Tropical Storm Warning may be necessary for Jamaica Monday morning
depending on the evolution of the track and the 34-kt wind radii.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm
Watch areas beginning Monday for Jamaica and on Tuesday for Grand
Cayman Island.

2. Interests along the coast of Central America, especially near
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required early this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 15.8N 74.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 31/1200Z 16.0N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 01/0000Z 16.3N 78.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 16.7N 80.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 17.1N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 17.3N 85.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 17.1N 87.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 16.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 310234
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
DISTURBANCE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 74.9W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman Island

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of Central America, especially
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely
be required early this week.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 15.8 North, longitude 74.9 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected through Monday, and the system could
become a tropical storm later tonight or on Monday. A faster rate
of strengthening is expected starting Monday night, and the system
could be near hurricane strength Tuesday night or Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Jamaica beginning Monday afternoon and are possible on Grand
Cayman Island on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through Wednesday evening, the system is expected to
produce rainfall amounts of 1 inch, with local amounts to 2 inches
across portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,
the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, and
Belize. For Jamaica, rainfall amounts of 2 inches with local
amounts of 4 inches are expected. This degree of rainfall could
lead to flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the next couple of days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 310234
TCMAT5

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
0300 UTC MON OCT 31 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED EARLY THIS WEEK.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 74.9W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 74.9W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 74.4W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 16.0N 76.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.3N 78.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.7N 80.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.1N 83.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.3N 85.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.1N 87.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 16.0N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 74.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 302332
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022

...DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 74.1W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman Island

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of Central America, especially
Belize, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings will likely be required early this week.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.8 North, longitude 74.1 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue over the next several days with a gradual turn to the west
by Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
system is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. It could
be near hurricane intensity by Tuesday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Jamaica beginning late Monday and are possible on Grand
Cayman Island on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through Wednesday afternoon, the system is expected to
produce rainfall amounts of 1 inch, with local amounts to 2 inches
across portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,
the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, and
Belize. For Jamaica, rainfall amounts of 2 inches with local
amounts of 4 inches are expected. This degree of rainfall could lead
to flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the next couple of days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 302059 CCA
TCMAT5

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER
1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
2100 UTC SUN OCT 30 2022

CORRECTED TO ADD A POSITION ACCURACY.

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
ISLAND OF JAMAICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY
BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED EARLY THIS WEEK.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 73.6W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 73.6W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 73.3W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.0N 74.9W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.3N 76.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.7N 78.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.2N 81.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.5N 83.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.4N 85.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 16.4N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 73.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 302058
TCDAT5

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022

This morning we were fortunate to have concurrent NOAA and Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter missions, which provided a wealth of
flight-level, Tail Doppler Radar, and dropsonde data over the system
in the central Caribbean Sea. The data indicated that a
well-defined, while somewhat broad, circulation had formed with a
minimum pressure of 1005 mb. A combination of SFMR winds and surface
dropsonde data also suggested that the system had 35-kt winds in its
northern semicircle. With that said, the satellite presentation of
the system currently lacks sufficient convective organization to be
considered a tropical cyclone. However, given the well-defined
center and tropical-storm-force winds, there is significant risk for
tropical storm conditions in the near future in portions of Jamaica
and Grand Cayman Island. With the expectation that this system will
likely become a tropical storm soon, advisories have been initiated
on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen.

The estimated motion of the disturbance is off to the west-northwest
at 290/9 kt. This general motion is forecast to continue for the
next day or so, as an expansive mid-level ridge is currently
centered north of the system and expected to move westward with
the cyclone. Toward the end of the forecast period, the ridge may
nose further westward as a deep-layer trough becomes established
well to the the northeast, which could result in a south of due
west motion when the system approaches the coast of
Belize. Landfall is expected between the 72- and 96-hour forecast
points. The initial NHC track forecast is roughly a blend of the
latest GFS and ECMWF guidance, which is also quite close to
the HCCA and TCVA consensus aids.

Based on the current structure, it may take a bit longer for the
convection to become sufficently organized to allow the formation of
a tropical cyclone, but this is forecast to occur at some point
tonight, likely during the typical diurnal maximum. After deep
convection become better established, environmental conditions
appear to be conducive for further intensification, especially in
the 24-48 hour period when the vertical wind shear is expected to be
lowest (5-15 kt) as the system traverses 29-30 C sea-surface
temperatures. Mid-level relative humidity is quite low (55-60
percent), but given the relatively low shear, this may act to keep
the system's structure small with a constricted radius of maximum
winds. The initial intensity forecast after 24 hours closely follows
the latest HCCA and ICON intensity guidance, making the system a
Category 1 hurricane in 60-72 hours. The system should weaken
quickly over land and is forecast to dissipate before day 5.

Based on the latest forecast, the government of Jamaica has issued
a Tropical Storm Watch for Jamaica, and the government in the
Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Grand Cayman
Island.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm
Watch areas beginning Monday for Jamaica and on Tuesday for Grand
Cayman Island.

2. Interests along the coast of Central America, especially near
Belize, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required early this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 15.7N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 31/0600Z 16.0N 74.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 31/1800Z 16.3N 76.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 16.7N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 17.2N 81.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 17.5N 83.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 17.4N 85.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 16.4N 89.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 302051
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022

...ADVISORIES INITIATED ON POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR JAMAICA AND GRAND CAYMAN
ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 73.6W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
island of Jamaica.

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Grand Cayman Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman Island

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of Central America, especially
Belize, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings will likely be required early this week.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.7 North, longitude 73.6 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue over the next several days with a gradual turn to the
west by Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system
is expected to become a tropical storm tonight, and it could be
near hurricane intensity by Tuesday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Jamaica beginning late Monday and are possible on Grand
Cayman Island on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through Wednesday afternoon, the system is expected to
produce rainfall amounts of 1 inch, with local amounts to 2 inches
across portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, eastern
Nicaragua, and Belize. For Jamaica, rainfall amounts of 2 inches
with local amounts of 4 inches are expected. This degree of
rainfall could lead to flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the next couple of days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 302048
TCMAT5

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
2100 UTC SUN OCT 30 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
ISLAND OF JAMAICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY
BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED EARLY THIS WEEK.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 73.6W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 0 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 73.6W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 73.3W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.0N 74.9W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.3N 76.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.7N 78.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.2N 81.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.5N 83.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.4N 85.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 16.4N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 73.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI

>