Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ORLENE-22
in Mexico

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Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 040234
TCDEP1

Remnants Of Orlene Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022

Visible satellite imagery indicates that Orlene has dissipated over
the Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico, with no trace of a low-level
circulation. Thus, this is the last advisory. Moisture from
Orlene could still lead to flash flooding and landslides through
Tuesday in southwestern Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Lingering rainfall from Orlene could lead to flash flooding, as
well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
southwestern Mexico into Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 24.0N 105.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS OF
12H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 040233
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Orlene Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022

...ORLENE DISSIPATES, BUT THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 105.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ENE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Orlene were located near
latitude 24.0 North, longitude 105.0 West. The remnants are moving
toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h).

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.
The remnants are expected to totally dissipate overnight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Orlene is expected to produce an additional inch or two of
rain across portions of western Mexico into Tuesday, bringing storm
total amounts to 10 inches locally. This rainfall could lead to
flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged
terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 040232
TCMEP1

REMNANTS OF ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
0300 UTC TUE OCT 04 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 105.0W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 105.0W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 105.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z..DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 105.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 032034
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Orlene Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022

Strong west-southwesterly shear and the mountainous terrain of
southwestern Mexico have taken a toll on Orlene. The tropical
cyclone has rapidly weakened, and is now estimated to be a 30-kt
tropical depression. A long-loop of one-minute GOES-17 visible
satellite imagery suggests that the center likely came ashore
slightly west of the earlier track, but close to the estimated time.
Additional weakening is expected, and the low-level center is
likely to dissipate this evening. A 12-h point is provided for
continuity but Orlene is not likely to exist as a cyclone by that
time.

Orlene is moving north-northeastward or 025/9 kt. The cyclone or
its remnants should continue to move north-northeastward around the
northwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge until dissipation
occurs.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
Southwest Mexico through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 23.6N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 04/0600Z 24.5N 104.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 032033
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Orlene Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022

...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES SPREADING INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 105.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ENE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the southwest coast of Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Orlene
was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 105.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue through this evening. On
the forecast track, the center of Orlene will move farther inland
over west-central Mexico this evening.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Orlene is
forecast to dissipate later tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Orlene is expected to produce the following rainfall
across portions of Southwest Mexico through Tuesday:

Northern Nayarit and southern Sinaloa: 3 to 6 inches with local
amounts of 10 inches.

Southwest Durango: 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches.

These rainfall amounts should lead to flash flooding, as well as
possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico, southern portions of the Baja
California peninsula and the Gulf of California through tonight.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 032033
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
2100 UTC MON OCT 03 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 105.4W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 105.4W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 105.6W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 24.5N 104.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 105.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 031753
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Orlene Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
100 PM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022

...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 105.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning from San
Blas to Mazatlan to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm
Warning has been discontinued south of San Blas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was
located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 105.5 West. Orlene is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion should continue over the next day or so. On the
forecast track, the center of Orlene will move farther inland over
west-central Mexico today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected through tonight,
and Orlene is forecast to dissipate tonight or early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area through this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Orlene is expected to produce the following rainfall
across portions of Southwest Mexico through Tuesday:

Northern Nayarit and southern Sinaloa: 3 to 6 inches with local
amounts of 10 inches.

Southwest Durango: 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches.

These rainfall amounts should lead to flash flooding, as well as
possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico, southern portions of the Baja
California peninsula and the Gulf of California through tonight.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 031613

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 03.10.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.5N 26.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2022 0 11.5N 26.3W 1012 25
0000UTC 04.10.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.1N 53.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2022 0 10.1N 53.4W 1014 21
0000UTC 04.10.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 111.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2022 0 15.2N 111.8W 1008 21
0000UTC 04.10.2022 12 16.1N 112.1W 1008 21
1200UTC 04.10.2022 24 16.7N 112.7W 1008 21
0000UTC 05.10.2022 36 17.3N 113.2W 1007 23
1200UTC 05.10.2022 48 17.5N 113.5W 1008 20
0000UTC 06.10.2022 60 17.6N 113.7W 1008 19
1200UTC 06.10.2022 72 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE ORLENE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.4N 105.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2022 0 22.4N 105.9W 984 64
0000UTC 04.10.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 11.3N 128.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.10.2022 144 11.6N 129.2W 1007 19


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031613

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 031613

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.10.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.5N 26.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.10.2022 11.5N 26.3W WEAK
00UTC 04.10.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.1N 53.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.10.2022 10.1N 53.4W WEAK
00UTC 04.10.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 111.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.10.2022 15.2N 111.8W WEAK
00UTC 04.10.2022 16.1N 112.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2022 16.7N 112.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2022 17.3N 113.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2022 17.5N 113.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2022 17.6N 113.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE ORLENE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.4N 105.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.10.2022 22.4N 105.9W MODERATE
00UTC 04.10.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 11.3N 128.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.10.2022 11.6N 129.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031613

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 031448
TCDEP1

Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022

Radar data from Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, showed that the eyewall of
Orlene moved onshore earlier this morning, but it appears that there
was some east-northeast to west-southwest tilt between the
mid-level center seen in the radar imagery and the surface center
due to moderate to strong west-southwesterly shear. It is estimated
that Orlene made landfall around 1345 UTC just north of the border
of the Mexican states of Nayarit and Sinaloa. The maximum winds
and minimum pressure at landfall were estimated at 75 kt and 980
mb, respectively. With the center moving farther inland, the
intensity has been reduced to 65 kt. Rapid weakening is expected to
occur today as Orlene interacts with the mountainous terrain of
southwestern Mexico and moves into an area of even stronger
west-southwesterly shear. The cyclone is expected to become a
tropical depression by this evening, and dissipate tonight or early
Tuesday.

Orlene is moving north-northeastward or 020/9 kt. There is again
no change to the track forecast philosophy. The cyclone should
continue to move north-northeastward around the northwestern side
of a mid-level ridge until dissipation occurs. The latest NHC
track forecast has been shifted east of the previous advisory due
to a more eastward initial position.

Key Messages:

1. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of west-central
mainland Mexico, where hurricane and tropical storm conditions are
expected to continue through this afternoon.

2. A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause flooding along
the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in regions of
onshore winds.

3. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
Southwest Mexico through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 22.9N 105.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
12H 04/0000Z 23.8N 105.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/1200Z 24.7N 104.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 031447
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
1500 UTC MON OCT 03 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL HURRICANE WATCHES, AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF
PUNTA MITA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA
TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 105.7W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 105.7W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 106.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.8N 105.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 24.7N 104.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 105.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ61 KNHC 031350
TCUEP1

Hurricane Orlene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
745 AM MDT Mon Oct 02 2022

...ORLENE MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...

Satellite imagery indicates that Orlene has made landfall in
southwest Mexico just north of the Nayarit and Sinaloa border around
745 AM MDT (1345 UTC). The maximum sustained winds are estimated to
be 85 mph (140 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is estimated
at 980 mb (28.94 inches).

An observing site at Marismas Nacionales near Felipe Angeles in the
state of Nayarit has recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph
(70 km/h) and a gust to 81 mph (130 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 745 AM MDT...1345 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 105.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 015 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 031157
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
600 AM MDT Mon Oct 03 2022

...CENTER OF ORLENE NEARING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
SPREADING ONSHORE...

SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 106.1W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Mazatlan to Bahia
Tempehuaya
The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning and Hurricane Watch south of Punta Mita.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was located
near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 106.1 West. Orlene is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected to continue over the next day
or so. On the forecast track, the center of Orlene will reach the
coast of mainland Mexico within the warning area this morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Orlene reaches
the coast. Rapid weakening is forecast after Orlene moves
onshore, and the system should dissipate tonight or Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in the
warning areas along the coast of mainland Mexico today.

Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of mainland
Mexico within the hurricane watch area this morning.

RAINFALL: Orlene is expected to produce the following rainfall
across portions of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday:

* Islas Marias: 6 to 10 inches, with local amounts of 14 inches.
* Nayarit and southern Sinaloa: 3 to 6 inches with local amounts of
10 inches.
* Jalisco, Colima, and southwest Durango: 1 to 3 inches with local
amounts of 5 inches.

These rainfall amounts are likely to lead to flash flooding, as
well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal
flooding in the Islas Marias and along the coast of mainland Mexico
in the warning area in regions of onshore winds.

SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico, southern portions of the Baja
California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the next day
or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 030847
TCDEP1

Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
300 AM MDT Mon Oct 03 2022

Orlene's cloud pattern has been becoming less organized, likely due
to the influence of strong southwesterly shear associated with a
broad upper-level trough near Baja California. Inner-core
convection has been gradually diminishing, but there are still some
strong convective bands around the center. Upper-level outflow is
restricted over the western portion of the circulation as a
result of the shear. The current intensity estimate is set to 85
kt based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers,
but is more uncertain than usual.

Although the unfavorable shear should continue to affect the
cyclone, Orlene will moving over very warm waters today which
should help the system maintain some of its intensity up to
landfall. The Decay-SHIPS model guidance indicates that Orlene
will still be a hurricane when it makes landfall later today, and
the official forecast shows this as well. After Orlene makes
landfall, the small cyclone is likely to quickly weaken over the
mountainous terrain of Mexico, and it should dissipate within 1-2
days.

Orlene continues to move just east of due north with an estimated
initial motion of 010/8 kt. There is basically no change to the
track forecast reasoning. The system should continue to be steered
by the flow on the western side of a mid-level ridge until it makes
landfall on the coast of Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area
in less than a day. The official track forecast is similar to the
previous NHC prediction and is roughly in the middle of the fairly
tightly clustered dynamical track guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of west-central
mainland Mexico, where hurricane conditions are expected later
today with tropical storm conditions beginning this morning.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

2. A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause flooding along
the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in regions of
onshore winds.

3. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
southwest Mexico through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 22.1N 106.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 22.9N 106.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 23.5N 106.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1800Z 24.0N 106.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 030846
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
300 AM MDT Mon Oct 03 2022

...ORLENE EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 106.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Mazatlan to Bahia
Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 106.4 West. Orlene is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected to continue over the next day
or so. On the forecast track, the center of Orlene will continue to
move away from Las Islas Marias this morning, and reach the coast of
mainland Mexico within the warning area later today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next day or
so, but Orlene is forecast to remain as hurricane when it reaches
southwestern Mexico. Rapid weakening is forecast after Orlene moves
onshore, and the system should dissipate on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area along
the coast of mainland Mexico today, with tropical storm conditions
beginning this morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward in the
tropical storm warning area through early today. Hurricane
conditions are possible along the coast of mainland Mexico within
the hurricane watch area early today.

RAINFALL: Orlene is expected to produce the following rainfall
across portions of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday:

* Islas Marias: 6 to 10 inches, with local amounts of 14 inches.
* Nayarit and southern Sinaloa: 3 to 6 inches with local amounts of
10 inches.
* Jalisco, Colima, and southwest Durango: 1 to 3 inches with local
amounts of 5 inches.

These rainfall amounts are likely to lead to flash flooding, as
well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal
flooding in the Islas Marias and along the coast of mainland Mexico
in the warning area in regions of onshore winds.

SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast
of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 030845
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
0900 UTC MON OCT 03 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA
TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 106.4W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 106.4W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 106.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.9N 106.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.5N 106.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.0N 106.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 106.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 030555
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
1200 AM MDT Mon Oct 03 2022

...ORLENE CAUSING HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN LAS ISLAS MARIAS
ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE TO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 106.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM N OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Mazatlan to Bahia
Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 106.5 West. Orlene is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a general
northward to north-northeastward motion is expected to continue over
the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Orlene
will be moving away from Las Islas Marias this morning, and reach
the coast of mainland Mexico within the warning area later today or
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected during the next day or so, but Orlene
is forecast to be remain a hurricane when it reaches southwestern
Mexico. Rapid weakening is forecast after Orlene moves onshore, and
the system should dissipate on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km). Isla Maria Madre reported a sustained wind of 67
mph (107 km/h) with a gust to 92 mph (148 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias for the
next several hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the
warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico today, with
tropical storm conditions beginning this morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward in the
tropical storm warning area through early today. Hurricane
conditions are possible along the coast of mainland Mexico within
the hurricane watch area early today.

RAINFALL: Orlene is expected to produce the following rainfall
across portions of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday:

* Islas Marias: 6 to 10 inches, with local amounts of 14 inches.
* Nayarit and southern Sinaloa: 3 to 6 inches with local amounts of
10 inches.
* Jalisco, Colima, and southwest Durango: 1 to 3 inches with local
amounts of 5 inches.

These rainfall amounts are likely to lead to flash flooding, as
well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal
flooding in the Islas Marias and along the coast of mainland Mexico
in the warning area in regions of onshore winds.

SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast
of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 030252
TCDEP1

Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
900 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022

Orlene appears to be slowly weakening this evening. 1-minute GOES-17
IR satellite imagery shows persistent bursting cloud tops below -80
C in the northern semicircle of the hurricane, likely still
associated with its eyewall. A 0116 UTC F-17 SSMIS microwave pass
also showed an eyewall fragment remains in connection to these very
cold cloud tops, though comparing microwave with geostationary
satellite suggests the hurricane is starting to become more tilted.
There are also subtle hints that upper-level westerly flow is
beginning to undercut the cirrus on the western side of the
convective plume. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were CI
5.5/102-kt from TAFB and CI 5.0/90-kt from SAB. However, the Final
T-numbers have been slowly decreasing and the initial intensity was
set to 90 kt for this advisory.

The intensity forecast is somewhat tricky for Orlene over the next
day or so. Deep-layer (200-850 mb) southwesterly vertical wind shear
is steadily increasing over Orlene and is now over 20-kt in both the
latest GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance. This shear is expected
to increase to 30-kt in the next 12-24 h, and will likely play a
role in helping to import drier mid-level air into the core of the
small hurricane. However, during this period, Orlene will also be
traversing over very warm sea-surface temperatures, above 30 degrees
Celsius, which could help the deep convection to remain quite
vigorous, especially during the diurnal max period. Thus, while
weakening appears likely, the rate of weakening has a higher than
normal uncertainty. The intensity guidance this cycle has a faster
rate of weakening, and the latest NHC intensity forecast was
shifted in that direction, though not quite as dramatic. Orlene is
still forecast to be a hurricane as it makes landfall in mainland
Mexico sometime on Monday. After landfall, the small system should
quickly weaken over the higher terrain of Mexico, with dissipation
likely by 48 hours.

The hurricane appears to be moving a little more east of due north
tonight, with the estimated motion at 010/7 kt. Orlene should
continue this general heading for the next 12 to 24 hours, remaining
steered by a mid-level ridge to its east, until the hurricane makes
landfall at some point on Monday along the southwestern coast of
Mexico. The track guidance this cycle has made a shift to the west,
likely due to some of the guidance (GFS, HWRF) showing the tropical
cyclone de-coupling from the deep convection in the immediate
short-term. Since that process has not yet occurred, the track
forecast this cycle was only shifted slightly west of the prior
track, though is notably slower with the speed of Orlene shortly
after the system makes landfall.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are likely ongoing near Islas Marias
tonight. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of
west-central mainland Mexico, where hurricane conditions are
expected on Monday with tropical storm conditions beginning
overnight. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

2. A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal flooding in
the Islas Marias and along the coast of mainland Mexico in the
warning area in regions of onshore winds.

3. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
southwest Mexico through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 21.4N 106.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 22.1N 106.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 22.9N 106.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...ON THE COAST OF MEXICO
36H 04/1200Z 23.6N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 030247
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
900 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022

...ORLENE NEARLY OVER ISLAS MARIAS...
...SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE LIKELY ONGOING...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 106.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Mazatlan to Bahia
Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was located
near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 106.5 West. Orlene is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a general northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected to continue over the next day
or so. On the forecast track, the center of Orlene will is forecast
to move over Las Islas Marias tonight, and reach the coast of
mainland Mexico within the warning area on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next day or so,
but Orlene is forecast to be remain a hurricane when it reaches
southwestern Mexico. Rapid weakening is forecast after Orlene
moves onshore, and the system should dissipated on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias
overnight. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area
along the coast of mainland Mexico on Monday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning overnight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward in the
tropical storm warning area through early Monday. Hurricane
conditions are possible along the coast of mainland Mexico within
the hurricane watch area tonight into early Monday.

RAINFALL: Orlene is expected to produce the following rainfall
across portions of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday:

* Islas Marias: 6 to 10 inches, with local amounts of 14 inches.
* Nayarit and southern Sinaloa: 3 to 6 inches with local amounts of
10 inches.
* Jalisco, Colima, and southwest Durango: 1 to 3 inches with local
amounts of 5 inches.

These rainfall amounts are likely to lead to flash flooding, as
well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal
flooding in the Islas Marias and along the coast of mainland Mexico
in the warning area in regions of onshore winds.

SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast
of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 030246
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
0300 UTC MON OCT 03 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA
TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 106.5W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 106.5W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 106.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.1N 106.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.9N 106.2W...ON THE COAST OF MEXICO
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.6N 105.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 106.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 022349
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
600 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022

...ORLENE NEARING ISLAS MARIAS...
...SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE LIKELY TO BEGIN
SHORTLY...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 106.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Mazatlan to Bahia
Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was located
near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 106.8 West. Orlene is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected later tonight. On the forecast
track, the center of Orlene will pass near or over Las Islas Marias
tonight, and reach the coast of mainland Mexico within the warning
area on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Orlene is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is expected during the next day or
so, however Orlene is forecast to be a strong hurricane when it
passes near or over the Islas Marias, and remain a hurricane when it
reaches southwestern Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias tonight,
with tropical storm conditions ongoing. Hurricane conditions are
expected in the warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico on
Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward in the
tropical storm warning area through early Monday. Hurricane
conditions are possible along the coast of mainland Mexico within
the hurricane watch area tonight into early Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
tonight.

RAINFALL: Orlene is expected to produce the following rainfall
across portions of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday:

* Islas Marias: 6 to 10 inches, with local amounts of 14 inches.
* Nayarit and southern Sinaloa: 3 to 6 inches with local amounts of
10 inches.
* Jalisco, Colima, and southwest Durango: 1 to 3 inches with local
amounts of 5 inches.

These rainfall amounts are likely to lead to flash flooding, as
well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal
flooding in the Islas Marias and along the coast of mainland Mexico
in the warning area in regions of onshore winds.

SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast
of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 022035
TCDEP1

Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
300 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022

Although the satellite presentation of Orlene is not as impressive
as it was overnight, the center is still embedded within an area of
cloud top temperatures of -70 to -80 degrees Celsius. The eye is
also not as defined in conventional satellite imagery as earlier
today, but an Air Force Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that
made two passes through the center earlier this afternoon reported
a closed 22 n-mi-wide eye on its final pass. The aircraft measured
a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 96 kt, and SFMR winds of 92 kt.
Since the plane only made a couple passes through the eastern
eyewall, the intensity is set at 100 kt, owing to some
undersampling.

It has been difficult to determine if today's weakening was caused
by an eyewall replacement cycle, the increase in southwesterly
shear, or a combination of both. Regardless, southwesterly
vertical wind shear is forecast to increase during the next 12 to
24 hours, which is expected to cause an additional reduction in
wind speed, plus the entrainment of some drier mid-level air to the
west of Orlene. Orlene still is forecast to pass near or over the
Islas Marias as a strong hurricane tonight, and reach the coast of
mainland Mexico as a hurricane by on Monday. After landfall, rapid
weakening is expected, and the low-level center should dissipate
over the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico in 48-60 hours.

Satellite imagery and fixes from the aircraft show that Orlene is
still moving northward or 005/7 kt. The track forecast philosophy
is unchanged from before. Orlene should bend north-northeastward
tonight as it is steered between a mid-level ridge to its east and
a broad trough over northwestern Mexico. The track guidance is in
much better agreement this cycle, and the NHC forecast was only
nudged slightly westward to be closer to the various consensus
aids.

The updated track and wind radii forecast has necessitated the
issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning along the coast of mainland
Mexico to the northwest of the Hurricane Warning area. No other
changes were made to the existing wind warnings.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of west-central
mainland Mexico, where hurricane conditions are expected on Monday
with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight. Preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

2. A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal flooding in
the Islas Marias and along the coast of mainland Mexico in the
warning area in regions of onshore winds.

3. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
southwest Mexico through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 20.4N 106.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 21.4N 106.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 22.4N 106.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 23.3N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1800Z 24.2N 105.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 022034
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
300 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022

...ORLENE EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE ISLAS MARIAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 106.9W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
north of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya.

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
from Manzanillo to Playa Perula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Mazatlan to Bahia
Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was located
near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 106.9 West. Orlene is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected later today or tonight. On the
forecast track, the center of Orlene will pass near or over Las
Islas Marias tonight, and reach the coast of mainland Mexico within
the warning area on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Orlene is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is expected during the next day or
so, however Orlene is forecast to be a strong hurricane when it
passes near or over the Islas Marias, and remain a hurricane when it
reaches southwestern Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias this
evening and tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning
within the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the
warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico on Monday, with
tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward in the
tropical storm warning area through early Monday. Hurricane
conditions are possible along the coast of mainland Mexico within
the hurricane watch area by tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area today.

RAINFALL: Orlene is expected to produce the following rainfall
across portions of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday:

* Islas Marias: 6 to 10 inches, with local amounts of 14 inches.
* Nayarit and southern Sinaloa: 3 to 6 inches with local amounts of
10 inches.
* Jalisco, Colima, and southwest Durango: 1 to 3 inches with local
amounts of 5 inches.

These rainfall amounts are likely to lead to flash flooding, as
well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal
flooding in the Islas Marias and along the coast of mainland Mexico
in the warning area in regions of onshore winds.

SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast
of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 022034
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
2100 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FROM MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA
TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 106.9W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 45SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 106.9W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 107.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 21.4N 106.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.4N 106.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.3N 105.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.2N 105.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 106.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 021747
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
1200 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ORLENE...
...OUTER RAIN BANDS SPREADING OVER THE ISLAS MARIAS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 106.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 106.9 West. Orlene is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected later today. On the forecast track, the
center of Orlene should pass near or over Las Islas Marias tonight
or Monday morning, and reach the coast of mainland Mexico within the
warning area later on Monday or Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Orlene is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is expected during the next day or
so, however Orlene is forecast to be a strong hurricane when it
passes near or over the Islas Marias, and remain a hurricane when it
reaches southwestern Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70
miles (110 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 972 mb (28.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Hurricane
conditions are expected in the warning area along the coast of
mainland Mexico late Monday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning early Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward in the
tropical storm warning area today through early Monday. Hurricane
conditions are possible along the coast of mainland Mexico within
the hurricane watch area by tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area today.

RAINFALL: Orlene is expected to produce the following rainfall
across portions of Southwest Mexico through Tuesday:

* Islas Marias: 6 to 10 inches, with local amounts of 14 inches.
* Nayarit and Sinaloa: 3 to 6 inches with local amounts of 10
inches.
* Jalisco and Colima: 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches.

These rainfall amounts will likely lead to flash flooding, as well
as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal
flooding along the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in
regions of onshore winds.

SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast
of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 021446
TCDEP1

Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
900 AM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022

The satellite presentation of Orlene has degraded since early this
morning. It appears that an increase in southwestern shear may
have begun, as the eye has become cloud filled. Subjective satellite
classifications from TAFB and SAB were T5.5 (102 kt), and objective
estimates range from 112 to 120 kt. Based on the degraded
satellite presentation, the initial intensity has been reduced to
110 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently
en route to investigate the hurricane, and should provide
additional information on the strength and size of the wind field
early this afternoon.

Orlene has likely peaked in intensity. Although the sea surface
temperatures remain warm along the forecast track, increasing
southwesterly vertical wind shear during the next 24 to 36 hours
is likely to cause the small hurricane to weaken. However, Orlene
is forecast to pass near or over the Islas Marias as a strong
hurricane late tonight or early Monday, and reach the coast of
mainland Mexico has a hurricane by late Monday or Monday night.
After landfall, rapid weakening is expected and the low-level
center should dissipate over the mountainous terrain of
southwestern Mexico in 60-72 hours.

Orlene has continued to move just east of due north or 005/7 kt.
The hurricane is being steered between a mid-level ridge to its
east and a broad trough over northwestern Mexico. These steering
currents should cause Orlene to bend north-northeastward later
today and it should then continue on that general heading until
landfall in southwestern Mexico. The latest NHC track forecast is
slightly west of the previous advisory, and lies close to a blend of
the GFS and ECMWF models (GFEX). This is a little to the right of
the other simple and corrected consensus models. The GFS remains
significantly farther right and faster than the remainder of the
guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning today. A Hurricane
Warning is in effect for a portion of west-central mainland Mexico,
where hurricane conditions are expected on Monday with tropical
storm conditions beginning early Monday. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
southwestern Mexico into Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 19.6N 106.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 20.6N 106.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 21.7N 106.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 22.6N 106.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 23.3N 105.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0000Z 23.9N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 021445
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
1500 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.9W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.9W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 106.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.6N 106.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.7N 106.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.6N 106.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.3N 105.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.9N 105.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 106.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 021147
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
600 AM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ORLENE CONTINUES
NORTHWARD...
....SIGNIFICANT WIND, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS EXPECTED IN
THE ISLAS MARIAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 106.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. Additional watches or
warnings could be required for portions of these areas on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Orlene was located
near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 106.8 West. Orlene is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected today. On the forecast track, the
center of Orlene should pass near or over Las Islas Marias tonight
or Monday morning, and reach the coast of mainland Mexico within the
warning area later on Monday or Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Orlene is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
this morning, followed by weakening beginning later today and
continuing until landfall.

Orlene is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias
tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area along the
coast of mainland Mexico late Monday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning early Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical
storm warning area this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible
along the coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane watch area
by tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area today.

RAINFALL: Into Tuesday, Orlene is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches
of rainfall, with local amounts of 10 inches, across portions of
southwestern Mexico. These rainfall amounts should lead to flash
flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal
flooding along the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in
regions of onshore winds.

SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast
of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 020851
TCDEP1

Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
300 AM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022

Orlene has continued to strengthen rapidly over the past several
hours. On GOES-17 satellite imagery, the system has a
well-defined eye with a temperature near -4 deg C surrounded by
very cold tops to near -80 deg C, particularly over the western
eyewall. Based on objective T-numbers from UW-CIMSS, the current
intensity estimate is raised to 115 kt. Subjective Dvorak
estimates are somewhat lower, but these are constrained by the rules
of the technique. Over the 15-h period from 1800 UTC yesterday to
the time of this advisory, the intensity of the hurricane has
increased by an estimated 40 kt. Orlene remains a small tropical
cyclone, with its destructive core covering an area some 20 n mi in
diameter. The system continues to exhibit strong upper-level
outflow with an outflow jet noted over the northern part of the
circulation.

In the short term, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for further strengthening, with moderate vertical shear
prevailing for the next 12 hours or so. Thereafter, although
thermodynamic factors should remain conducive, the global models
show a substantial increase in southwesterly vertical shear over
the hurricane. This is also suggested by water vapor imagery which
depicts a broad upper-level trough north of 20N and west of the
Baja California peninsula. Since Orlene is a small hurricane, it
should be especially susceptible to the negative effects of the
increasing shear. Therefore a weakening trend is predicted to
begin after 12 hours. Nonetheless, given Orlene's recent
strengthening , the official intensity forecast is above all of
the model guidance. It is anticipated that the system will be at
or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of mainland
Mexico. After landfall, the cyclone will quickly weaken over the
mountainous terrain.

Orlene continues moving northward or at about 005/6 kt. During
the next 48 hours or so, the hurricane should be steered by the
flow between the mid/upper-level trough near Baja California and
northwestern Mexico and a subtropical ridge to its east. A slight
bend of the heading toward the north-northeast is likely later
today. The official forecast track is very close to the previous
NHC track, and is a little to the east of the dynamical model
consensus. The GFS model is significantly farther to the right and
faster than the other track guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. A Hurricane
Warning is in effect for a portion of west-central mainland Mexico,
where hurricane conditions are expected on Monday with tropical
storm conditions beginning early Monday. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
southwestern Mexico into Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 19.0N 106.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 19.7N 106.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 20.9N 106.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 22.0N 106.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 22.8N 105.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
60H 04/1800Z 23.2N 105.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 020850
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
300 AM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022

...ORLENE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 106.8W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. Additional watches or
warnings could be required for portions of these areas on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Orlene was located
near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 106.8 West. Orlene is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected today. On the forecast track, the
center of Orlene should pass near or over Las Islas Marias tonight
or Monday morning, and reach the coast of mainland Mexico within the
warning area later on Monday or Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Orlene is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is forecast through this morning, followed by weakening beginning
later today and continuing until landfall.

Orlene is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias
tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area along the
coast of mainland Mexico late Monday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning early Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible along the
coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane watch area by tonight
or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area today.

RAINFALL: Into Tuesday, Orlene is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches
of rainfall, with local amounts of 10 inches, across portions of
southwestern Mexico. These rainfall amounts should lead to flash
flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal
flooding along the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in
regions of onshore winds.

SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast
of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 020850
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
0900 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 106.8W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 106.8W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 106.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.7N 106.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.9N 106.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.0N 106.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.8N 105.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.2N 105.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 106.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 020547
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
1200 AM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022

...ORLENE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 106.8W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. Additional watches or
warnings could be required for portions of these areas on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 106.8 West. Orlene is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast with a slight increase in forward speed is expected
today. On the forecast track, the center of Orlene should pass
near or over Las Islas Marias tonight or Monday morning and reach
the coast of mainland Mexico within the warning area later on Monday
or Monday night.

Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Orlene is
now a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast through this
morning, followed by weakening beginning later today and continuing
until landfall.

Orlene is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias
tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area along the
coast of mainland Mexico late Monday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning early Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area by early today. Hurricane conditions are possible along the
coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane watch area by tonight
or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area today.

RAINFALL: Into Tuesday, Orlene is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches
of rainfall, with local amounts of 10 inches, across portions of
southwestern Mexico. These rainfall amounts should lead to flash
flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal
flooding along the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in
regions of onshore winds.

SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast
of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California through this
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 020430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 16E (ORLENE) WARNING NR 013A AMENDED//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (ORLENE) WARNING NR 013A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020300Z --- NEAR 18.4N 106.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 106.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.1N 106.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 20.3N 106.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 21.5N 106.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.5N 105.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 23.1N 105.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020430Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 106.9W.
02OCT22. HURRICANE 16E (ORLENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1032 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020300Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021000Z, 021600Z, 022200Z AND 030400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 020256
TCDEP1

Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
900 PM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022

Orlene is a rapidly strengthening hurricane. The intensity of the
cyclone has increased by 35 kt in the past 18 h, and the satellite
presentation of Orlene has continued to improve this evening. A warm
and well-defined eye with a diameter of 10-15 n mi is evident in
GOES-17 satellite imagery, and the eyewall is comprised of a solid
ring of deep convection with cloud top temperatures colder than -70
degrees Celsius. The subjective current intensity estimates have
rapidly increased this evening, and SAB and TAFB provided consensus
T5.0/90 kt Dvorak estimates at 00 UTC. Objective satellite estimates
have continued to rise since then, and the initial intensity is set
at 95 kt for this advisory.

The environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
strengthening during the next 12 h or so, while the hurricane moves
within a low deep-layer shear environment and over very warm SSTs.
The latest NHC intensity forecast shows Orlene peaking as a major
hurricane on Sunday. Then, the southwesterly shear is expected
to increase over Orlene, and the small hurricane should be
especially susceptible to the negative effects of the increasing
shear. Therefore, the forecast shows steady weakening beginning
Sunday night and continuing through landfall. It appears that Orlene
will be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of
mainland Mexico by late Monday, but it should quickly weaken
after landfall as it moves over the mountainous terrain.

The hurricane is moving just east of due north (005 degrees) at 4
kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged, as an upper-level
trough over northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula is
expected to cause Orlene to move north-northeastward during the next
couple of days as it approaches the coast of mainland Mexico. The
GFS remains on the right side of the guidance envelope, but this
solution appears reasonable given the stronger hurricane is more
likely to feel the steering effects of the deep-layer trough.
Therefore, the NHC track forecast has been nudged slightly eastward
this cycle, and it generally lies to the east of the multi-model
consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias Sunday
night, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday. A
Hurricane Warning has been issued for a portion of west-central
mainland Mexico, where hurricane conditions are expected on Monday
with tropical storm conditions beginning early Monday. Preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A
Hurricane Watch has been extended southward along the west-central
coast of Mexico, where hurricane conditions are possible late Sunday
or early Monday.

2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
southwestern Mexico into Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 18.4N 106.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 19.1N 106.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 20.3N 106.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 21.5N 106.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 22.5N 105.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 23.1N 105.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 020254
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
900 PM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022

...SATELLITE DATA INDICATE ORLENE STILL STRENGTHENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 106.9W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas northward to Mazatlan, and
issued a Hurricane Watch south of San Blas to Playa Perula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. Additional watches or
warnings could be required for portions of these areas later
tonight or on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was located
near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 106.9 West. Orlene is moving
toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast with a slight increase in forward speed is expected
on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Orlene
should pass near or over Las Islas Marias Sunday night or Monday
morning and reach the coast of mainland Mexico within the warning
area later on Monday or Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast
through early Sunday, followed by weakening beginning later on
Sunday and continuing until landfall.

Orlene is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias Sunday
night, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area along the
coast of mainland Mexico late Monday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning early Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area by early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible along the
coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane watch area by Sunday
night or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the tropical storm watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Into Tuesday, Orlene is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches
of rainfall, with local amounts of 10 inches, across portions of
southwestern Mexico. These rainfall amounts should lead to flash
flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal
flooding along the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in
regions of onshore winds.

SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast
of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California through this
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 020252
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
0300 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS NORTHWARD TO MAZATLAN...AND
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF SAN BLAS TO PLAYA PERULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER
TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 106.9W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 106.9W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 107.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.1N 106.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.3N 106.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.5N 106.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.5N 105.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.1N 105.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 106.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 012358
TCDEP1

Hurricane Orlene Special Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
600 PM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022

The satellite presentation of Orlene has quickly improved during the
past several hours. A warm and well-defined eye has emerged in
GOES-17 satellite imagery, surrounded by a solid ring of deep
convection with infrared cloud tops colder than -70 degrees Celsius.
The initial intensity is set at 90 kt for this advisory based on
recent satellite intensity estimates.

Based on the higher initial intensity, the near-term intensity
forecast has been raised to show additional strengthening in the
next 12-24 h while environmental conditions remain conducive for
intensification. No changes were made to the track forecast with
this special advisory.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias Sunday
night, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday.
Hurricane conditions are possible over portions of west-central
mainland Mexico starting on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning area along the
west-central coast of Mexico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible over other portions of southwestern and west-central
Mexico in the tropical storm watch area tonight or Sunday.

2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
southwest Mexico into Monday evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0000Z 18.2N 107.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 18.6N 107.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 19.7N 106.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 20.9N 106.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 22.1N 106.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 23.1N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 04/1800Z 24.1N 105.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 012357
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Special Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
600 PM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022

...ORLENE IS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 107.1W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. Additional watches or
warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later
today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 107.1 West. Orlene is moving
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A north-northeastward motion
at a slightly faster speed is expected to begin by tonight and
continue through early next week. On the forecast track, the center
of Orlene should pass near or over Las Islas Marias Sunday night or
Monday morning and reach the coast of mainland Mexico later on
Monday or Monday night.

Satellite intensity estimates indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
additional strengthening is forecast through Sunday afternoon,
followed by weakening starting on Sunday night and continuing until
landfall.

Orlene is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias Sunday
night, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area by early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible along the
coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane watch area by Sunday
night into Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
coast of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm watch area
tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Into Monday evening, Orlene is expected to produce 3 to 5
inches of rainfall, with local amounts of 10 inches, for portions of
southwest Mexico. These rainfall amounts should lead to flash
flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is likely along the coast of Mexico
in the warning area in regions of onshore winds.

SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of
southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through this weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 012355
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ORLENE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
0000 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.1W AT 02/0000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.1W AT 02/0000Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.6N 107.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.7N 106.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.9N 106.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.1N 106.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.1N 105.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.1N 105.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 107.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ61 KNHC 012317
TCUEP1

Hurricane Orlene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
515 PM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022

...SATELLITE DATA INDICATE ORLENE IS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...

Satellite data indicate that Orlene is rapidly strengthening, with
maximum sustained winds estimated to be 105 mph (170 km/h). A
special advisory will be issued by 6 PM MDT (0000 UTC) and will
replace the intermediate advisory.

SUMMARY OF 515 PM MDT...2315 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 107.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 012033
TCDEP1

Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
300 PM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022

Orlene has strengthened some since the last advisory. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 700-mb flight-level
winds of 80 kt in the the northeastern eyewall, and reliable-
looking surface wind estimates of 69-72 kt from the SFMR. The
central pressure inside the 16-n mi wide eye was 979 mb. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly
conservative 70 kt. Data from the aircraft and a recent
scatterometer overpass show that Orlene remains a small tropical
cyclone.

Orlene should remain in a generally moist and light-shear
environment for about the next 18-24 h, and continued steady
intensification is expected during that time. The new intensity
forecast now calls for a peak intensity of 85 kt in about 24 h, a
slightly higher intensity than the previous forecast. After that,
strong southwesterly shear should cause steady to rapid weakening
until landfall in Mexico. This should be followed by dissipation
over the mountains of northwestern Mexico between 72-96 h. As
mentioned previously, while it cannot be ruled out that Orlene
could reach mainland Mexico as a hurricane, the chances of that
are decreasing based on the guidance and the forecast shear. The
new intensity forecast again lies near or at the upper edge of the
intensity guidance.

Orlene is generally moving slowly northward, 360/4 kt, to the
west of a mid-level ridge. After about 12 h, the cyclone should turn
north-northeastward in the flow between this ridge and an upper-
level trough seen in water vapor imagery over northwestern Mexico
and the northern Baja California peninsula. This motion is forecast
to continue until Orlene dissipates over mainland Mexico. The
track guidance is fairly tightly clustered together, although the
GFS remains a bit to the right of the other models after 24 h. The
guidance envelope has shifted a little westward since the previous
advisory, and based on this the new forecast track is again nudged a
little to the west. However, the new track lies a little east of
the various consensus models, between them and the GFS.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias Sunday
night, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday.
Hurricane conditions are possible over portions of west-central
mainland Mexico starting on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning area along the
west-central coast of Mexico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible over other portions of southwestern and west-central
Mexico in the tropical storm watch area tonight or Sunday.

2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
southwest Mexico into Monday evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 17.9N 107.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 18.6N 107.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 19.7N 106.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 20.9N 106.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 22.1N 106.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 23.1N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 04/1800Z 24.1N 105.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 012032
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
300 PM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT ORLENE IS STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 107.1W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. Additional watches or
warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later
today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was located
near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 107.1 West. Orlene is moving
toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A north-northeastward motion
at a slightly faster speed is expected to begin by tonight and
continue through early next week. On the forecast track, the
center of Orlene should pass near or over Las Islas Marias Sunday
night or Monday morning and reach the coast of mainland Mexico later
on Monday or Monday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph
(130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast
through Sunday afternoon. Steady to rapid weakening is expected
starting Sunday night and continuing until landfall.

Aircraft and satellite wind data indicate that Orlene remains a
small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to
10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias Sunday
night, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area by early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible along the
coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane watch area by Sunday
night into Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
coast of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm watch area
tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Into Monday evening, Orlene is expected to produce 3 to 5
inches of rainfall, with local amounts of 10 inches, for portions of
southwest Mexico. These rainfall amounts should lead to flash
flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is likely along the coast of Mexico
in the warning area in regions of onshore winds.

SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of
southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through this weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 012032
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
2100 UTC SAT OCT 01 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 107.1W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 107.1W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.6N 107.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.7N 106.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.9N 106.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.1N 106.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.1N 105.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.1N 105.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 107.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 011747
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
1200 PM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022

...ORLENE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD LAS ISLAS MARIAS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 107.0W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. Additional watches or
warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later
today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 107.0 West. Orlene is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A north-northeastward
motion at a slightly faster speed is expected to begin by tonight
and continue through early next week. On the forecast track, the
center of Orlene should pass near or over Las Islas Marias Sunday
night or Monday morning and reach the coast of mainland Mexico later
on Monday or Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected through Sunday. After that,
steady weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to
investigate Orlene.

Orlene remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias Sunday
night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area by early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible along the
coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane watch area by Sunday
night into Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
coast of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm watch area
tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Into Monday evening, Orlene is expected to produce 3 to 5
inches of rainfall, with local amounts of 10 inches, for portions of
Southwest Mexico. These rainfall amounts should lead to flash
flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is likely along the coast of Mexico
in the warning area in regions of onshore winds.

SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of
southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through this weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 011450
TCDEP1

Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
900 AM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022

Conventional satellite imagery and a recent SSM/IS overpass indicate
that Orlene is becoming better organized, with the central
convection becoming more symmetric and starting to develop into an
eyewall. There have also been hints of an eye on infrared imagery.
Satellite intensity estimates at 12Z were in the 55-65 kt range, and
since that time estimates from the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique
have increased to over 70 kt. Based on this data, Orlene is
upgraded to a hurricane with an initial intensity of 65 kt. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Orlene later today.

Orlene should be in a moist and light-shear environment for about
the next 24 h, and with the increased core organization steady to
rapid intensification is expected. The new intensity forecast
calls for a peak intensity of 80 kt in about 24 h. After that,
strong southwesterly shear should cause steady to rapid weakening
until landfall in Mexico. This should be followed by dissipation
over the mountains of northwestern Mexico between 72-96 h. While
it cannot be ruled out that Orlene could reach mainland Mexico as a
hurricane, the chances of that have decreased since yesterday based
on the current trends and guidance. The new intensity forecast has
some adjustments from the previous forecast and lies near or at the
upper edge of the intensity guidance.

Orlene continues moving slowly northward at 360/4 kt, to the west of
a mid-level ridge. After about 12 h, the cyclone should turn
north-northeastward in the flow between this ridge and an
upper-level trough seen in water vapor imagery over northwestern
Mexico and the northern Baja California peninsula. This
north-northeastward motion is forecast to continue until Orlene
dissipates over mainland Mexico. The track guidance is fairly
tightly clustered around this track, although the GFS is a bit to
the right of the other models. The new forecast track is close to
the various consensus models and is just a little to the left of the
previous forecast.

Based on the the forecast track, intensity, and wind radii, a
Hurricane Warning has been issued for Las Islas Marias.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias Sunday
night, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday.
Hurricane conditions are possible over portions of the west-central
mainland Mexico starting on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning area along the
west-central coast of Mexico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible over other portions of southwestern and west-central
Mexico in the tropical storm watch area tonight or Sunday.

2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain in
Southwest Mexico through Monday evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 17.6N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 18.3N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 19.2N 106.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 21.6N 106.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 22.8N 105.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 04/1200Z 24.0N 105.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 011449
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
900 AM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022

...ORLENE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 107.0W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for Las
Islas Marias.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. Additional watches or
warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later
today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was located
near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 107.0 West. Orlene is moving
toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A north-northeastward motion
at a slightly faster speed is expected to begin by tonight and
continue through early next week. On the forecast track, the center
of Orlene should pass near or over Las Islas Marias Sunday night or
Monday morning and reach the coast of mainland Mexico later on
Monday or Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected through Sunday.
After that, steady weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute
to investigate Orlene.

Orlene remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias Sunday
night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area by early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible along the
coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane watch area by Sunday
night into Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
coast of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm watch area
tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Into Monday evening, Orlene is expected to produce 3 to 5
inches of rainfall, with local amounts of 10 inches, for portions of
Southwest Mexico. These rainfall amounts should lead to flash
flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is likely along the coast of Mexico
in the warning area in regions of onshore winds.

SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of
southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through this weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 011449
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
1500 UTC SAT OCT 01 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR LAS
ISLAS MARIAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 107.0W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 107.0W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.3N 107.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.2N 106.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.6N 106.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.8N 105.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 24.0N 105.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 107.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 011136
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Orlene Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
600 AM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022

...ORLENE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PASS JUST WEST OF JALISCO, MEXICO LATER THIS
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 107.0W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. Additional watches
or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 107.0 West. Orlene is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A north-northeastward
motion at a slightly faster speed is expected to begin by tonight
and continue through early next week. On the forecast track, the
center of Orlene should pass near or over Las Islas Marias Sunday
night or Monday morning and reach the coast of mainland Mexico
later on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady strengthening is expected through Sunday, and Orlene
is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Steady weakening is
expected to begin by Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in Las Islas Marias Sunday
night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area by early
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
mainland Mexico within the tropical storm watch area tonight and
Sunday.

RAINFALL: Into Monday evening, Orlene is expected to produce 3 to 5
inches of rainfall, with local amounts of 10 inches, for portions of
Southwest Mexico. These rainfall amounts should lead to flash
flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is likely along the coast of Mexico
in the warning area in regions of onshore winds.

SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of
southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through this weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 010834
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
300 AM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022

Orlene has changed little in organization overnight. Recent
microwave satellite imagery revealed Orlene is trying to maintain
an inner core despite some dry air attempting to wrap in from its
east. Scatterometer data indicated that the low-level center was
slightly to the southeast of what was previously estimated. These
data suggest that the cyclone may be feeling the affects of some
southeasterly shear, possibly caused by flow around the ridge to its
east. The initial intensity remains unchanged at 55 kt and is based
off a blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and
the UW-CIMSS ADT.

The storm has about 36 h left to take advantage of the relatively
low vertical wind shear and moist thermodynamic environment. After
36 h, increasing southwesterly shear should cause Orlene to steadily
weaken before reaching the coast of mainland Mexico early next week.
The cyclone is then expected to dissipate shortly after moving
inland. The overall model guidance continues to back off on the
peak intensity of Orlene, likely due to the fact the cyclone has not
been able to strengthen as quickly as expected over the past day or
so. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous
one, and is on the high end of the guidance.

Orlene is moving slowly northward, at only 4 kt, to the west of a
mid-level ridge. By tonight, the cyclone should turn
north-northeastward in the flow between the ridge and an upper-level
trough over northwestern Mexico and the northern Baja California
peninsula. This north-northeastward motion is forecast to continue
until Orlene dissipates over mainland Mexico. The latest NHC track
forecast was nudged just east of the previous one, mainly due to the
slight southeastward adjustment of the initial position.

Based on the the forecast track, intensity, and wind radii,
Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be required for
portions of the Hurricane Watch area later today.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Islas Marias Sunday
night, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area along the west-central coast of Mexico on Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible over other portions of
southwestern and west-central Mexico in the tropical storm watch
area tonight or Sunday.

2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
Southwest Mexico into Monday evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 17.2N 107.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 17.9N 106.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 18.9N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 20.0N 106.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 21.2N 106.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 22.5N 105.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 23.7N 105.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 010834
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Orlene Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
300 AM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022

...ORLENE INCHING ITS WAY NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PASS JUST WEST OF JALISCO, MEXICO LATER THIS
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 107.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. Additional watches
or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was
located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 107.0 West. Orlene is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A north-northeastward
motion at a slightly faster speed is expected to begin by tonight
and continue through early next week. On the forecast track,
the center of Orlene should reach the coast of mainland Mexico on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady strengthening is expected through Sunday, and Orlene
is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Steady weakening is
expected to begin by Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in Las Islas Marias Sunday
night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area by early
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
mainland Mexico within the tropical storm watch area tonight and
Sunday.

RAINFALL: Into Monday evening, Orlene is expected to produce 3 to 5
inches of rainfall, with local amounts of 10 inches, for portions of
Southwest Mexico. These rainfall amounts should lead to flash
flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is likely along the coast of Mexico
in the warning area in regions of onshore winds.

SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of
southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through this weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 010834
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
0900 UTC SAT OCT 01 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 107.0W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 107.0W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.9N 106.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.9N 106.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 21.2N 106.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.5N 105.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.7N 105.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 107.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 010547
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Orlene Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
1200 AM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022

...ORLENE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PASS JUST WEST OF JALISCO, MEXICO LATER THIS
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 107.2W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. Additional watches
or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 107.2 West. Orlene is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). Orlene is forecast to
have a slight increase in forward speed later this morning and turn
toward the north-northeast by tonight. This north-northeastward
motion is expected to continue into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected through tonight,
and Orlene is forecast to become a hurricane later today.

Orlene remains a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in Las Islas Marias on
Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible tonight and
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
by early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
coast of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm watch area
tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Into Monday evening, Orlene is expected to produce 3 to 5
inches of rainfall, with local amounts of 10 inches, for portions of
southwestern Mexico. These rainfall amounts should lead to flash
flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is likely along the coast of Mexico
in the warning area in regions of onshore winds.

SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of
southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through this weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 010411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 01.10.2022

TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 34.5N 79.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.10.2022 0 34.5N 79.2W 991 40
1200UTC 01.10.2022 12 35.9N 79.9W 1004 25
0000UTC 02.10.2022 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ORLENE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.8N 107.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.10.2022 0 16.8N 107.2W 995 37
1200UTC 01.10.2022 12 17.5N 107.3W 995 38
0000UTC 02.10.2022 24 18.4N 107.3W 995 38
1200UTC 02.10.2022 36 19.5N 107.5W 998 39
0000UTC 03.10.2022 48 20.6N 107.3W 1000 38
1200UTC 03.10.2022 60 22.0N 106.8W 1001 47
0000UTC 04.10.2022 72 23.1N 106.5W 1005 27
1200UTC 04.10.2022 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 14.7N 113.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2022 60 14.9N 112.9W 1008 22
0000UTC 04.10.2022 72 15.8N 113.0W 1008 21
1200UTC 04.10.2022 84 16.3N 113.7W 1007 25
0000UTC 05.10.2022 96 16.4N 114.6W 1007 28
1200UTC 05.10.2022 108 16.6N 115.5W 1008 25
0000UTC 06.10.2022 120 16.2N 115.9W 1007 24
1200UTC 06.10.2022 132 16.0N 116.7W 1008 20
0000UTC 07.10.2022 144 15.6N 117.8W 1008 21

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 36.9N 72.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2022 60 36.4N 72.2W 1005 41
0000UTC 04.10.2022 72 35.5N 71.3W 1005 38
1200UTC 04.10.2022 84 38.1N 69.6W 1004 40
0000UTC 05.10.2022 96 38.6N 68.7W 1001 38
1200UTC 05.10.2022 108 39.5N 67.3W 1001 35
0000UTC 06.10.2022 120 40.2N 65.4W 1003 31
1200UTC 06.10.2022 132 40.9N 62.1W 1008 26
0000UTC 07.10.2022 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.4N 31.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.10.2022 96 13.4N 31.4W 1009 27
1200UTC 05.10.2022 108 15.0N 32.2W 1009 29
0000UTC 06.10.2022 120 16.7N 33.2W 1010 26
1200UTC 06.10.2022 132 18.4N 33.5W 1013 24
0000UTC 07.10.2022 144 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010411

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 010311
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Orlene had another burst of deep convection in the past few hours.
Earlier microwave imagery from SSMI/S still showed a small inner
core with a curved band to the south. Subjective and objective
satellite Dvorak classifications continue to range between 45 to 65
kt. Therefore, the initial intensity remains at 55 kt to represent
a blend of these estimates.

The storm is embedded in an environment conducive for further
intensification. Global models suggest the vertical wind shear is
low and the surrounding mid-level humidities are relatively moist
and should remain this way for the next day or so. These
conditions, combined with warm sea surface temperatures, create the
potential for steady to rapid intensification. In fact,
statistical guidance indicates there is a higher than average
probability of rapid intensification in the upcoming 24 hours. The
official forecast still shows Orlene steadily strengthening to peak
near 85 kt in 36 hours and little changes have been made since the
previous advisory. Beyond this period, the vertical wind shear is
expected to increase and induce weakening until landfall. It should
be noted that the NHC intensity forecast is on the high end of the
guidance to account for the possibility of rapid intensification.

The cyclone is moving along the periphery of a ridge over central
Mexico. In the next day, Orlene is expected to turn
north-northeastward in the flow between the ridge and an upper-level
trough over northwestern Mexico and the northern Baja California
peninsula and continue this trajectory until landfall. The latest
NHC track prediction is slightly east of the previous track forecast
and a little faster than the consensus model aids. This forecast
favors the GFS track solution over the ECMWF.

Based on the the forecast track and wind radii, the Government of
Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch for
portions of mainland Mexico. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required in the coming day.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Islas Marias on Sunday,
where a hurricane watch has been issued. Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the tropical storm warning area from Playa
Perula to San Blas within the next 36 h. Tropical storm conditions
are possible over other portions of southwestern and west-central
Mexico in the tropical storm watch area.

2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of mountainous terrain of
Southwest Mexico into Monday afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 17.0N 107.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 17.6N 107.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 18.6N 107.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 19.8N 106.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 21.1N 106.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 22.4N 106.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 23.6N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 05/0000Z 25.5N 105.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 010259
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Orlene Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...ORLENE MOVING NORTHWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF MAINLAND
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 107.2W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas, and a
Hurricane Watch from San Blas to Bahia Tempehuaya.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. Additional watches
or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
overnight or Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 107.2 West. Orlene is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). Orlene is forecast to
have a slight increase in forward speed overnight and move toward
the north-northeast on Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected through Saturday
night, and Orlene is forecast to become a hurricane overnight or
Saturday.

Orlene remains a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in Las Islas Marias on
Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible Saturday night and
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
by early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
coast of mainland Mexico Saturday night and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Into Monday evening, Orlene is expected to produce 3 to 5
inches of rainfall, with local amounts of 10 inches, for portions of
southwestern Mexico. These rainfall amounts should lead to flash
flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is likely along the coast of Mexico
in the warning area in regions of onshore winds.

SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of
southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula by this weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 010259
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
0300 UTC SAT OCT 01 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS...AND A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR FROM SAN BLAS TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
OVERNIGHT OR SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.2W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.2W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 107.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.6N 107.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.6N 107.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.8N 106.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.1N 106.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.4N 106.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.6N 106.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 25.5N 105.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 107.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 302353
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Orlene Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
600 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...TINY ORLENE HEADING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS AND A PORTION OF MAINLAND
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 107.2W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to San Blas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. Additional watches
or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
tonight or Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 107.2 West. Orlene is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward
the north is expected by tonight along with a slight increase in
forward speed. Orlene is then forecast to move toward the north or
north-northeast on Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected through Saturday
night, and Orlene is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or
Saturday.

Orlene remains a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in Las Islas Marias on
Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible Saturday night and
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
mainland Mexico Saturday night and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Into Monday afternoon, Orlene is expected to produce 3 to
5 inches of rainfall, with local amounts of 10 inches, for portions
of the southwest Mexican coast. These rainfall amounts should lead
to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of
mountainous terrain.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico
in the watch areas in regions of onshore winds.

SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of
southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula by this weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 302032
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
300 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Orlene has become a little better organized since the last advisory,
with the central convection becoming a little more concentrated.
Satellite intensity estimates are now in the 45-65 kt range, and
based on these the initial intensity is nudged upward to 55 kt.
Although the organization has increased, the cyclone still looks a
bit ragged, perhaps because the current easterly shear is a little
stronger than the analyzed 5-10 kt.

As noted in the last advisory, Orlene is forecast to be in a moist,
low-shear environment and over warm sea surface temperatures for the
next 24-36 h. These conducive conditions, combined with the small
storm size, should allow steady to rapid strengthening as the core
convection becomes more symmetric and concentrated. Indeed, the
rapid intensification indices of the SHIPS model show around a 50
percent chance of 25-30 kt of strengthening during the next 24.
Based this and other guidance, the new intensity forecast calls for
Orlene to reach a peak intensity of 85 kt in 36 h. After that, the
global models remain in excellent agreement that the cyclone should
encounter strong southwesterly shear that should result in quick
weakening. The official forecast during the weakening phase,
including the 60-kt landfall intensity, is at the upper edge of the
intensity guidance. However, there is still a chance that Orlene
could be a hurricane at landfall if the shear is lighter than
expected or the storm moves faster than currently forecast.

The initial motion is now north-northwestward or 335/4 kt. Orlene
is on the southwest side of a mid- to upper-level ridge over central
Mexico, and water vapor imagery shows a developing mid- to
upper-level trough over northwestern Mexico and the northern Baja
California peninsula. Orlene should turn northward and north-
northeastward between these features during the next day or so, with
this general motion continuing for the rest of the forecast period.
The new forecast track, which again is similar to the previous
forecast, calls for the system to pass west of Cabo Corrientes and
near the Islas Marias in about 48 h and then make landfall on the
mainland coast of Mexico near 96 h. This forecast is close to the
consensus models, but is still slower than the GFS model. As seen
earlier, some of the ensemble guidance still forecasts the
possibility that Orlene will get so strongly sheared that the
northward motion will slow over the southern Gulf of California and
keep the center offshore through 120 h.

The forecast track and wind radii require a Hurricane Watch for Las
Islas Marias and a Tropical Storm Watch for a potion of mainland
Mexico at this time. Additional watches and warnings will likely
be required tonight or on Saturday.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Islas Marias on Sunday,
where a hurricane watch has been issued. Tropical storm conditions
are possible over portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico
in the tropical storm watch area.

2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of mountainous terrain of
Southwest Mexico into Monday afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 16.6N 107.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 17.2N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 18.0N 107.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 19.1N 107.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 20.6N 106.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 21.9N 106.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 23.0N 106.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 25.5N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 302031
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Orlene Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
300 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...ORLENE NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...WATCHES ISSUED FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS AND A PORTION OF MAINLAND
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 107.1W
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for Las Islas
Marias, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of mainland Mexico
from Manzanillo to San Blas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to San Blas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. Additional watches
or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
tonight or Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 107.1 West. Orlene is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward
the north is expected by tonight along with a slight increase in
forward speed. Orlene is then forecast to move toward the north or
north-northeast on Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected
through Saturday night, and Orlene is forecast to become a
hurricane tonight or Saturday.

Orlene remains a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in Las Islas Marias on
Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible Saturday night and
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
mainland Mexico Saturday night and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Into Monday afternoon, Orlene is expected to produce 3 to
5 inches of rainfall, with local amounts of 10 inches, for portions
of the Southwest Mexican coast. These rainfall amounts should lead
to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of
mountainous terrain.

STORM SURGE: Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast
of Mexico in the watch areas in regions of onshore winds.

SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of
southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula by this weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 302031
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
2100 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR LAS ISLAS
MARIAS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO SAN BLAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO SAN BLAS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 107.1W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 107.1W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.2N 107.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.0N 107.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.1N 107.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.6N 106.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 21.9N 106.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.0N 106.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 25.5N 106.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 107.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 301436
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Orlene has not changed much in organization during the past several
hours, with satellite imagery showing a small central dense
overcast with ragged outer convective banding. Interestingly, a
recent SSMI/S overpass indicates that, despite analyses that the
shear is 5 kt or less, the convection under the overcast is a bit
asymmetric and mainly occurring to the southwest and south of the
center. Satellite intensity estimates are essentially unchanged
since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains 50 kt.

Orlene is forecast to be in a moist, low-shear environment and over
warm sea surface temperatures for the next 48 h. These conducive
conditions, combined with the small inner core, should allow steady
to rapid strengthening once the core convection becomes more
symmetric. Based on this, the intensity forecast shows the system
reaching a peak intensity of 85 kt in about 48 h. After that time,
the global models are in excellent agreement that the cyclone should
encounter strong southwesterly shear that is likely to cause quick
weakening. The official forecast calls for a 60-kt intensity just
before landfall, and this is near the upper edge of the intensity
guidance. However, there is still a chance that Orlene could be a
hurricane at landfall if the shear is lighter than expected or the
storm moves faster than currently forecast.

The initial motion is still northwestward or 320/4 kt. Rawinsonde
data shows a mid- to upper-level ridge over central Mexico to the
northeast of Orlene, and a combination of rawinsonde data and water
vapor imagery shows a developing mid- to upper-level trough over
northwestern Mexico and the northern Baja California peninsula.
Orlene should turn northward and north-northeastward between these
features during the next couple of days, with this general motion
continuing for the rest of the forecast period. The new forecast
track, which is similar to the previous forecast, calls for the
system to pass west of Cabo Corrientes and near the Islas Marias in
48-60 h and then make landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico just
after 96 h. This forecast is close to the consensus models, but
slower than the GFS model. It should be noted that some of the
ensemble guidance is forecasting the possibility that Orlene will
get so strongly sheared that the northward motion will slow over
the southern Gulf of California and keep the center offshore
through 120 h.

Watches will likely be required for portions of the western coast
of Mexico and the Islas Marias on the next advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 16.1N 107.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 16.7N 107.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 17.5N 107.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 18.4N 107.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 19.7N 107.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 21.4N 106.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 22.9N 106.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 25.1N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 301436
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Orlene Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...ORLENE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 107.1W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coast of western Mexico and in the Islas
Marias should monitor the progress of Orlene. Watches will likely
be required for portions of these areas later today.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 107.1 West. Orlene is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected by tonight along with a slight increase in
forward speed. Orlene is then forecast to turn toward the
north-northeast by Saturday or Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next couple
of days, and Orlene is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or
Saturday.

Orlene is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of
southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula by this weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, as well as
coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 301436
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO AND IN THE ISLAS
MARIAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. WATCHES WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 107.1W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 107.1W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 107.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.7N 107.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.5N 107.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.4N 107.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.7N 107.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.4N 106.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.9N 106.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 25.1N 106.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 107.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 300834
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Orlene continues to gain strength. An earlier microwave overpass
revealed a well-defined curved band wrapping into a developing inner
core. Persistent deep convection is over the estimated low-level
center location, with cloud tops near -80 degrees Celsius. The
UW-CIMSS ADT objective Dvorak estimate as well as the Data-T number
from SAB have increased from the previous advisory, and therefore
the initial intensity has been nudged up to 50 kt.

The storm has turned northwestward and is heading 320/4 kt as it
begins to slowly round the western periphery of a mid-level ridge
located over Mexico. A turn to the north should occur by tonight
followed by a turn to the north-northeast along with a slight
increase in forward speed, as Orlene rounds the ridge and gets
caught in the flow between the ridge and an upper trough to its
west. The consensus track guidance has shifted slightly eastward
this cycle, partially due to the ECMWF track coming into better
agreement with the rest of the global models. The NHC track
forecast was also adjusted a little to the right, but remains just
west of the consensus. Based on the trends in the track forecast,
there is an increasing probability that Orlene may affect the coast
of the Mexican state of Jalisco as it passes just to the west of
that location in 2-3 days. Therefore, watches may be required for a
portion of that coastline later this morning.

Orlene is within an environment favorable for strengthening, with
plenty of atmospheric moisture, low vertical wind shear, and water
temperatures of 29 degrees C. The cyclone's forecast path should
keep it within these conditions for the next 36-48 h. With there
now being evidence of an inner core, Orlene's rate of strengthening
should increase soon. After 48 h, strong southwesterly shear is
forecast to begin impacting the cyclone and should entrain dry
mid-tropospheric air into its circulation. This should cause
Orlene to weaken before it reaches the coast of Mexico early next
week. Based on the small size of the cyclone, fairly rapid changes
in its intensity are possible, both while strengthening and
weakening. The NHC forecast is a little higher that the previous
one and is very near the various multi-model consensus solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 15.9N 106.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 16.6N 107.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 17.4N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 18.2N 107.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 19.3N 107.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 20.5N 106.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 21.8N 106.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 23.8N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 300834
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Orlene Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...ORLENE STRENGTHENS AS IT TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 106.9W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coast of western Mexico should monitor the
progress of Orlene. Watches may be required later this morning for
a portion of the western Mexico coastline.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 106.9 West. Orlene is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected by tonight along with a slight increase in
forward speed. Orlene is then forecast to turn toward the
north-northeast by Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next couple of
days, and Orlene is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or
Saturday.

Orlene is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of
southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula by this weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 300834
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
0900 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ORLENE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING FOR
A PORTION OF THAT COASTLINE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 106.9W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 106.9W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.6N 107.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.4N 107.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.2N 107.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.3N 107.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.5N 106.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 21.8N 106.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 23.8N 106.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 106.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 300232
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Orlene has improved in satellite presentation over the past several
hours. There is a burst of deep convection with an expanding
central dense overcast and cloud top temperatures below -80 degrees
C. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have been increasing
since the last advisory and the initial intensity has been raised to
45 kt to represent a blend of the classifications.

The storm is moving west-northwest at 6 kt on the southwestern
edge of a mid-level ridge over Mexico. Orlene is expected to turn
northwestward and northward within a day or so as it reaches the
western edge of the ridge. Beyond a day, the cyclone is forecast
to gradually turn north-northeastward in the flow between an
upper-level trough over northwestern Mexico and the northern Baja
California peninsula until landfall by 96 h. The GFS is still
on the faster and eastern side of model guidance envelope with the
other models slower and farther west. The latest official forecast
has shifted east from the previous advisory and is west of the
consensus aids.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to be conducive for
strengthening for the next couple of days or so. Statistical model
guidance forecasts vertical wind shear to be low and sea surface
temperatures to be above 28 degrees C. SHIPS-RII and DTOPS are
showing above average potential for rapid intensification in the
short term forecast. Beyond three days, the vertical wind shear is
expected to increase and potentially force in dry environmental air
which would likely cause weakening of the relatively small storm.
After landfall, Orlene is expected to rapidly weaken. The NHC
intensity forecast is very similar to the previous prediction and
shows steady strengthening through 48 h, favoring the higher end
of the model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 15.6N 106.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 16.3N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 17.1N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 17.9N 107.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 18.8N 107.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 20.0N 107.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 21.3N 107.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 23.7N 106.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
120H 05/0000Z 26.1N 106.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 300231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Orlene Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...ORLENE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 106.7W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coast of western Mexico should monitor the
progress of Orlene.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 106.7 West. Orlene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected overnight, followed by a turn
toward the north on Friday. Orlene is forecast to turn toward the
north-northeast by Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next couple of
days, and Orlene is forecast to become a hurricane Friday night or
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of
southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula by this weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 300231
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
0300 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ORLENE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 106.7W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 106.7W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 106.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.3N 107.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.1N 107.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.9N 107.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.8N 107.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.3N 107.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 23.7N 106.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 26.1N 106.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 106.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 292042
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Satellite imagery shows that Orlene has the same convective features
that it had earlier today, with a small central dense overcast and
an outer convective band that wraps about three-quarters of the way
around the central feature. However, both the central and outer
convection have become more ragged, and some parts of the outer band
currently look like an arc cloud. This structure suggests the
possibility of some dry air near the cyclone despite an overall
moist environment. A recent scatterometer overpass indicated maximum
winds near 40 kt, and based on this data, the initial intensity
remains 40 kt. This is also close to the 35 and 45 kt satellite
intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, respectively.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/7 kt. Orlene is
being steered by a mid-level ridge over Mexico, with the cyclone
forecast to reach the western end of the ridge during the next 12-24
h. This should lead to a turn toward the northwest and north during
this time-frame. After 24 h, Orlene should move generally
northward to north-northeastward in the flow between the ridge and a
mid- to upper-level trough currently developing over northwestern
Mexico and the northern Baja California peninsula. The UKMET and
ECMWF now forecast a stronger Orlene, and as a result they have
joined the other models in forecasting a northward motion. However,
those models have a slower forward speed than the GFS. Overall, the
guidance envelope has shifted eastward since the last advisory, and
the new forecast track is also adjusted eastward after 24 h. The
new track lies near or to the west of the various consensus models,
and it calls for the center to move into Mexico between 96-120 h.

Orlene is forecast to be within an environment of moist air and low
vertical wind shear for the 72 h or so. The guidance is now in good
agreement on at least steady intensification during this time, and
the various rapid intensification indices in the SHIPS model
suggest rapid intensification is possible during the next 24-36 h.
After 72 h, Orlene is likely to encounter increasing shear and a
drier air mass, which should cause weakening. However, the GFS and
HMON models continue to forecast the cyclone to make landfall as a
hurricane, and the new intensity forecast again follows that
scenario. It should be noted that Orlene is very small. This could
allow the cyclone to more easily intensify when the environment is
favorable, but it could also make it more vulnerable to subtly less
favorable environmental conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 15.4N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 16.0N 107.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 16.9N 108.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 17.6N 108.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 18.6N 108.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 19.6N 108.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 20.8N 107.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 23.5N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 26.1N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 292042
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Orlene Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...ORLENE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 106.5W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coast of western Mexico should monitor the
progress of Orlene.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 106.5 West. Orlene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward
the north on Friday. Orlene is forecast to turn toward the
north-northeast by Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next couple of
days, and Orlene is forecast to become a hurricane Friday night or
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of
southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula by this weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 292042
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
2100 UTC THU SEP 29 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ORLENE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 106.5W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 106.5W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 106.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.9N 108.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.6N 108.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.6N 108.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.6N 108.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.8N 107.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 23.5N 107.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 26.1N 106.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 106.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 291444
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Satellite imagery this morning shows that Orlene is getting better
organized, with the formation of a small central dense overcast
with an outer convective band in the northwestern semicircle.
Satellite intensity estimates are 35-40 kt, so the initial
intensity is increased to 40 kt.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/9 kt. Orlene is
being steered by a mid-level ridge over Mexico, and this general
motion should continue for the next day or so. After that time, the
cyclone reaches the western end of the ridge. The UKMET and ECMWF,
which forecast less development, take the storm more westward south
of Baja California, while the GFS and the Canadian, which forecast a
stronger and more vertically deep storm, forecast Orlene to turn
northward into the southern Gulf of California toward northwestern
Mexico. Give the current trends and the forecast intensities, the
track forecast leans towards the GFS/Canadian solution and shows
Orlene turning northward and moving into northwestern Mexico between
days 4-5. The new forecast track is similar to the previous
forecast.

Orlene is forecast to be within an environment of low vertical wind
shear and plenty of atmospheric moisture while over warm waters for
the 72 h or so. The majority of guidance, except the aforementioned
ECMWF and UKMET, indicate steady strengthening during this time,
and bring Orlene to hurricane intensity by 36 h. The intensities
during the first 72 h have been increased to better match the trend
of the intensity guidance. After 72 h, Orlene is likely to
encounter increasing shear and a drier air mass, which should
cause weakening. However, the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models suggest
the possibility that the cyclone will still be at hurricane
strength when it reaches the coast of Mexico, and the new intensity
forecast follows that scenario.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 15.1N 105.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 15.8N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 16.6N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 17.4N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 18.2N 108.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 19.3N 108.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 20.5N 108.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 22.9N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 291444
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Orlene Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...ORLENE STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE
SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 105.9W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coast of western Mexico should monitor the
progress of Orlene.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 105.9 West. Orlene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue over the next day or so. A turn to
the north is forecast to occur on Friday, and that motion should
continue over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near near 45 mph (75
km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Orlene is expected to become a hurricane by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of
southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula by this weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 291444
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ORLENE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 105.9W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 105.9W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 105.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.8N 107.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.6N 108.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.4N 108.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.2N 108.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.3N 108.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.5N 108.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 22.9N 107.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 105.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 290832
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

The depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Orlene. A mass
of deep convection with cloud tops as cold as -80 degrees C has
persisted over the center of the cyclone for the past several hours.
In addition, a pair of recent ASCAT overpasses showed
non-rain-flagged wind vectors of 31 kt and some believable vectors
of 36 kt. Based on this, the initial advisory intensity has been
set at 35 kt.

The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt to the south of a
mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. This motion is expected to
continue for the next day or so. After that time, the track
forecast becomes highly uncertain due to diverging track solutions.
The UKMET and ECMWF indicate a cyclone that does not strengthen any
further, and turns it westward in a couple of days in the low-level
flow. The remaining model solutions indicate a stronger cyclone,
and turn Orlene northward over the weekend as the system rounds the
western periphery of the ridge. This scenario would bring the
cyclone near the coast of Mexico or the southern Baja California
peninsula early next week. The NHC track forecast favors the latter
solution due to the favorable environmental conditions ahead of
Orlene, and is in agreement with the TVCE consensus.

Orlene is forecast to be within an environment of low vertical wind
shear and plenty of atmospheric moisture while over warm waters for
the next few days. The majority of guidance, except the
aforementioned ECMWF and UKMET indicate steady strengthening during
this time, and bring Orlene to hurricane intensity by 36 h. After
72 h the cyclone is expected to encounter drier air and strong
southwesterly shear, which should induce a weakening trend. The
latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous
one and is close to the multi-model consensus IVCN through 48 h and
is a little below it thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 14.8N 104.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 15.5N 106.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 16.4N 107.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 17.2N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 17.9N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 18.9N 108.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 20.0N 108.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 22.6N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 25.3N 107.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 290832
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Orlene Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM ORLENE SOUTH OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 104.9W
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 104.9 West. Orlene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue over the next day or so. A turn to
the north is forecast to occur on Friday, and this motion should
continue over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast, and Orlene is expected to become
a hurricane by late Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of
southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula by this weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 290832
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
0900 UTC THU SEP 29 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 104.9W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 104.9W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 104.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 15.5N 106.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.4N 107.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.2N 108.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.9N 108.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.9N 108.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 20.0N 108.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 22.6N 107.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 25.3N 107.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 104.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 290240
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

The area of low pressure located south of the southwestern coast of
Mexico has steadily gained organization throughout the day. Recent
microwave imagery indicated the formation of convective banding and
an earlier partial ASCAT pass suggested the system likely has a
well-defined center. Recent Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB
were both 2.0, another sign that the system has become better
organized. Collectively these data support classifying the system as
a tropical cyclone, and advisories have been initiated on Tropical
Depression Sixteen.

For the next 48 to 60 h, the forecast is fairly straightforward with
high confidence. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest
near 9 kt, and that general motion should continue as the system is
steered by a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for strengthening, and all of the
intensity models suggest it will become a tropical storm quickly,
and continue strengthening to hurricane intensity a day or two after
that.

The main concern with the forecast is what happens beyond 60 h, when
confidence in the forecast decreases considerably. There is a clear
bifurcation in the track guidance at that point that appears to be
linked to the intensity and vertical extent of the cyclone. If the
cyclone is relatively deep at that point, which is shown by all of
the normally reliable intensity guidance, it will likely turn
northward or north-northeastward as it interacts with a mid- to
upper-level trough. However, some models like the ECMWF forecast a
shallower cyclone that takes a drastically different path slowly
westward, steered primarily by lower-level winds. The result is a
massive spread in the track guidance, with most of the consensus
aids caught somewhat between those two scenarios. Although the ECMWF
solution can not be dismissed entirely, the more skillful intensity
guidance (supported by the favorable environment) suggest that the
eastern solution toward Mexico may be more likely. The NHC forecast
therefore favors the northeastern solution and shows the cyclone
moving toward the coast of Mexico by 72-96 h. Strong upper-level
winds associated with the aforementioned trough and a drier
surrounding environment should cause the cyclone to weaken as it
moves closer to the coast, and it will likely quickly dissipate if
it moves inland. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the
intensity consensus throughout the forecast, except at 96 h to
reflect that the official forecast position is still over water at
that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 14.4N 103.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 15.1N 105.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 16.1N 107.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 16.8N 108.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 17.5N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 18.5N 108.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 19.7N 107.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 23.0N 107.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 25.0N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 290240
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 103.7W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Sixteen-E was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 103.7
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph
(17 km/h). A continued west-northwest motion at a slightly faster
forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. The system is
forecast to slow down and turn toward the north or north-northeast
over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected, and the system is forecast to become a
tropical storm tomorrow and could reach hurricane strength by the
end of the week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 290240
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 103.7W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 103.7W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 103.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.1N 105.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.1N 107.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.8N 108.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.5N 108.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.7N 107.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 23.0N 107.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 25.0N 106.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 103.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY



>