Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ASHLEY-22
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 280620
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/1/20222023
1.A DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE 1 (ASHLEY)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 28/09/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.5 S / 76.2 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1005 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SO: 280 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/09/2022 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 0

24H: 29/09/2022 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

36H: 29/09/2022 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

48H: 30/09/2022 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
SUD D'ASHLEY S'EST NETTEMENT AFFAIBLIE ET L'IMAGERIE SATELLITE
DEVOILE MAINTENANT UN VORTEX DE SURFACE TOTALEMENT EXPOSE ET DEPOURVU
DE CONVECTION PROFONDE, LES SOMMETS FROIDS ETANT A PLUS DE 90 MN DU
CENTRE DE SURFACE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. LA PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFNIITIF DU SYSTEME LIEE A L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, AU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST ET A LA BAISSE DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EST DONC CONFIRMEE ET ASHLEY EST MAINTENANT
DECLASSEE EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE. LES VENTS MAXIMAUX SONT ESTIMES A
30KT, FAISANT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DONNEES ASCAT PARTIELLES D'HIER
SOIR ET LES DONNEES DES MODELES NUMERIQUES.

LE VORTEX RESIDUEL DE BASSES COUCHES D'ASHLEY SUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE
VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN BORDURE D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE
TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. IL SERA ASPIRE DAVANTAGE VERS LE
SUD VENDREDI PAR INTERACTION AVEC UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES
AUX ALENTOURS DE 20S/70E. IL RESTERA DONC A L'ECART DES TERRES
HABITEES, BIEN A L'EST DE L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES. EN TERMES
D'INTENSITE, DU GRAND FRAIS PEUT ENCORE ETRE OBSERVE A COURT TERME
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD DE LA CIRCULATION.

CECI EST LE DERNIER BULLETIN CONCERNANT CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 280620
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/1/20222023
1.A REMNANT LOW 1 (ASHLEY)

2.A POSITION 2022/09/28 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 76.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/09/28 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 0

24H: 2022/09/29 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

36H: 2022/09/29 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2022/09/30 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONTINUOUSLY WEAKENING IN ASHLEY'S SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND THIS MORNING'S SATELLITE
IMAGERY NOW SHOWS A TOTALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL VORTEX DEPRIVED OF ANY
DEEP CONVECTION, THE CLOSEST COLD CLOUDTOPS BEING MORE THAN 90 NM
FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM'S FINAL
WEAKENING STAGE IS THUS ONGOING, CONFIRMING THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSIONS, NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR AND
DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THEREFORE, ASHLEY IS DOWNGRADED TO A
REMNANT LOW. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AROUND 30KT, ACCORDING TO
LAST NIGHT'S PARTIAL ASCAT DATA AND AVAILABLE NWP GUIDANCE.

ASHLEY'S REMNANT LOW-LEVEL VORTEX IS FOLLOWING A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK ALONG THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. FROM FRIDAY, IT WILL THEN BE ATTRACTED MORE SOUTHWARD
WHILE INTERACTING WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CLOSE TO 20S/70E. IT
WILL THUS REMAIN AWAY FROM INHABITED ISLANDS, OFF THE EAST OF THE
MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO. ASSOCIATED WINDS COULD KEEP REACHING NEAR-GALE
FORCE IN THE SHORT TERM IN THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 280601
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/09/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 28/09/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: REMNANT LOW 1 (ASHLEY) 1005 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 76.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND LOCALLY UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/09/28 AT 18 UTC:
16.0 S / 73.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/09/29 AT 06 UTC:
17.3 S / 71.6 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, REMNANT LOW

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 280021
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/1/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 1 (ASHLEY)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 28/09/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.2 S / 77.8 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/09/2022 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SO: 175 NO: 0

24H: 29/09/2022 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

36H: 29/09/2022 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

48H: 30/09/2022 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.0-

LA CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE S'EST MAINTENUE AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6
HEURES AVEC UNE LOCALISATION DE LA CONVECTION QUI RESTE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD. LA DERNIERE PASSE MICRO-ONDE AMSR2 PERMET DE NOTER
UNE CIRCULATION DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AFFAIBLIE ALORS QUE LA
CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES NE PERMET UNE LOCALISATION DU CENTRE
QUE PEU PRECISE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK D'ASHLEY EST VUE A LA BAISSE MAIS
PAR INERTIE ON PEUT ENCORE ESTIMER DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 35KT,
LAISSANT ASHLEY ENCORE AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE DECALAGE
DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QUI PILOTE LE FLUX DIRECTEUR A ETE MOINS
MARQUE QUE PREVU. RESULTAT, ASHLEY A LEGEREMENT RALENTI AU COURS DES
DERNIERS INSTANTS. CE RALENTISSEMENT N'EST QUE TEMPORAIRE ET ASHLEY
CONTINUER DE SUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST
S'ORIENTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST POUR LES PROCHAINES
48H. PAR LA SUITE AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LA STRUCTURE
TEND VERS UN TALWEG DE BASSES ET MOYENNES TROPOSPHERES NE PERMETTANT
PLUS LE SUIVI EN SYSTEME TROPICAL.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, ASHLEY COMMENCE A FAIBLIR ET CET
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR. EN EFFET, LE FORT CISAILLEMENT
ET LES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC CONTINUER D'INHIBER LA CONVECTION ET
FAVORISER L'EVOLUTION EN SYSTEME RESIDUEL D'ICI LES PROCHAINES 36H.
DE PLUS, ASHLEY TRANSITE SUR DES EAUX NE PRESENTANT PAS DE POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT.

ASHLEY NE MENACE PAS LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 280021
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/1/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ASHLEY)

2.A POSITION 2022/09/28 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 77.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/09/28 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 0

24H: 2022/09/29 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

36H: 2022/09/29 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2022/09/30 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0-

THE SHEARED PATTERN HAS BEEN MAINTAINED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH
A LOCALIZATION OF THE CONVECTION THAT REMAINS IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE LAST AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS ALLOWS TO NOTE A WEAKENED
MID-TROPOSPHERE CIRCULATION WHILE THE LOW LAYER CIRCULATION ALLOWS A
LOCALIZATION OF THE CENTER ONLY SLIGHTLY PRECISE. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS
OF ASHLEY IS SEEN TO BE DECREASING BUT BY INERTIA WE CAN STILL
ESTIMATE WINDS OF ABOUT 35KT, LEAVING ASHLEY STILL AT THE STAGE OF A
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, THE SHIFT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT DRIVES THE STEERING FLOW WAS LESS MARKED THAN
EXPECTED. AS A RESULT, ASHLEY HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST
FEW MOMENTS. THIS SLOWING DOWN IS ONLY TEMPORARY AND ASHLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A WEST-SOUTH-WEST TRACK GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS
THE SOUTH-WEST FOR THE NEXT 48H. THEREAFTER WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM, THE STRUCTURE TENDS TO A TROUGH OF LOW AND MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERES NOT ALLOWING ANY MORE THE FOLLOW-UP IN TROPICAL SYSTEM.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ASHLEY IS STARTING TO WEAKEN AND THIS
WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE. INDEED, THE STRONG SHEAR AND THE
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THE CONVECTION AND TO
FAVOUR THE EVOLUTION IN REMNANT LOW FOR THE NEXT 36H. MOREOVER,
ASHLEY IS TRANSITING OVER WATERS WITH INSUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL.

ASHLEY DOES NOT THREATEN POPULATED AREAS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 272352
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/09/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 28/09/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ASHLEY) 1001 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 77.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 80
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/09/28 AT 12 UTC:
15.0 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/09/29 AT 00 UTC:
16.3 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 272100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 220927184630
2022092718 02S ASHLEY 003 01 275 11 SATL 025
T000 133S 0786E 030
T012 142S 0760E 030
T024 153S 0737E 025
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 13.3S 78.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 78.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 14.2S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.3S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 78.0E.
27SEP22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 518
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER DUE TO HIGH NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR. THE SYSTEM HAS
PROGRESSED INTO GRADUALLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOW
BELOW 26C, INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, ALL LEADING TO THE GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF 02S BY TAU
24 IF NOT SOONER. NUMERICAL MODELS AS-WELL AS RELIABLE MODEL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK AND INTENSITY RESPECTIVELY, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
EACH. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 12 FEET.//
0222092518 114S 838E 20
0222092600 117S 837E 20
0222092606 121S 835E 20
0222092612 127S 831E 25
0222092618 131S 826E 40
0222092700 132S 819E 45
0222092706 134S 808E 40
0222092712 134S 797E 35
0222092718 133S 786E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 13.3S 78.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 78.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 14.2S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.3S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 78.0E.
27SEP22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 518
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER DUE TO HIGH NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR. THE SYSTEM HAS
PROGRESSED INTO GRADUALLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOW
BELOW 26C, INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, ALL LEADING TO THE GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF 02S BY TAU
24 IF NOT SOONER. NUMERICAL MODELS AS-WELL AS RELIABLE MODEL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK AND INTENSITY RESPECTIVELY, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
EACH. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 12 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 271806
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/1/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 1 (ASHLEY)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 27/09/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.9 S / 78.1 E
(TREIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 280 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/09/2022 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 28/09/2022 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 0

36H: 29/09/2022 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

48H: 29/09/2022 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

60H: 30/09/2022 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0- CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE DE LA TEMPETE
TROPICALE ASHLEY S'EST MAINTENUE AVEC TOUEFOIS DES SOMMETS UN PEU
PLUS FROIDS. CETTE ACTIVITE EST ESSENTIELLEMENT LOCALISEE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD DU FAIT D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE VENT MODERE A FORT. LA
DERNIERE PASSE ASCAT PARTIELLE NOTE ENCORE DES VALEURS DE VENT DE
L'ORDRE DE 35KT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST, MAIS DES VALEURS DE 40KT
SONT POSSIBLE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST NON ECHANTILLONNE. L'ANALYSE
DVORAK POUR UN SYSTEME CISAILLE DE 3.0- CONFORTE CES VALEURS (LES
VALEURS DES 12H PRECEDENTES ONT ETE REVUES A LA HAUSSE).

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE QUI PILOTE LE FLUX DIRECTEUR SE DECALE PROGRESSIVEMENT
VERS L'EST EN S'AXANT DAVANTAGE NORD-EST/SUD-OUEST. ASHLEY SUIT DONC
UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST S'ORIENTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT
VERS LE SUD-OUEST POUR LES PROCHAINES 36H. PAR LA SUITE AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LA STRUCTURE TEND PLUS VERS UN TALWEG
DE BASSES ET MOYENNES TROPOSPHERES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, ASHLEY PRESENTE ACTUELLEMENT SON PIC ET
DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDRE EN INTENSITE. EN EFFET, LE FORT
CISAILLEMENT ET LES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC VONT INHIBER LA CONVECTION
ET FAVORISER L'EVOLUTION EN SYSTEME RESIDUEL D'ICI LES PROCHAINES
36H.

ASHLEY NE MENACE PAS LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 271806
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/1/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ASHLEY)

2.A POSITION 2022/09/27 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 78.1 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/09/28 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2022/09/28 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 0

36H: 2022/09/29 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2022/09/29 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2022/09/30 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- CI=3.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OF TROPICAL STORM
ASHLEY HAS CONTINUED WITH SOMETIMES SLIGHTLY COLDER TOPS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LOCALIZED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO
MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR. THE LAST PARTIAL ASCAT PASS STILL
NOTES WIND VALUES AROUND 35KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, BUT VALUES
OF 40KT ARE POSSIBLE IN THE UNSAMPLED SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE DVORAK
ANALYSIS FOR A 3.0- SHEAR SYSTEM CONFIRMS THESE VALUES (THE PREVIOUS
12 HOURS VALUES HAVE BEEN REVISED UPWARDS).

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
DRIVES THE STEERING FLOW IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD, BECOMING
MORE NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST ORIENTED. ASHLEY IS THEREFORE FOLLOWING A
WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THEREAFTER WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STRUCTURE
TENDS MORE TOWARDS A TROUGH OF LOW AND MEDIUM TROPOSPHERES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ASHLEY IS CURRENTLY AT ITS PEAK AND SHOULD
PROGRESSIVELY LOSE INTENSITY. INDEED, THE STRONG SHEAR AND THE
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR WILL INHIBIT THE CONVECTION AND WILL FAVOR THE
EVOLUTION IN RESIDUAL LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 36H.

ASHLEY DOES NOT THREATEN POPULATED AREAS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 271800
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/09/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 27/09/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ASHLEY) 1001 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 78.1 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/09/28 AT 06 UTC:
14.8 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/09/28 AT 18 UTC:
15.9 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 271210
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/1/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 1 (ASHLEY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 27/09/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.5 S / 79.9 E
(TREIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 280 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/09/2022 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 0

24H: 28/09/2022 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 0

36H: 29/09/2022 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

48H: 29/09/2022 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0 CI=2.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE DE LA TEMPETE
TROPICALE ASHLEY A LEGEREMENT DIMINUE MAIS EST TOUJOURS PRESENTE DANS
LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. AVEC LE CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE DE
NORD-EST TOUJOURS MODERE A FORT (20KT D'APRES LES DONNES DU CIMSS),
LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES CONTINUE A ETRE EXPOSE. EN ABSENCE DE
NOUVELLES DONNEES (ASCAT OU MICRO-ONDE), LES VENTS MAXIMUM SONT
MAINTENUS A 40KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QUI PILOTAIT LE
FLUX DIRECTEUR VERS L'OUEST SE DECALE PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'EST EN
S'AXANT DAVANTAGE NORD-EST/SUD-OUEST. ASHLEY DEVRAIT DONC AVOIR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE DAVANTAGE OUEST-SUD-OUEST A SUD-OUEST POUR LES PROCHAINES
48H.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, ASHLEY A ATTEINT SON PIC DANS LES DERNIERES
HEURES ET DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDRE EN INTENSITE. EN EFFET, LE
FORT CISAILLEMENT ET LES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC VONT FAVORISER
L'EVOLUTION EN SYSTEME RESIDUEL D'ICI LES PROCHAINES 48H.

ASHLEY NE MENACE PAS LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 271210
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/1/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ASHLEY)

2.A POSITION 2022/09/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 79.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/09/28 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0

24H: 2022/09/28 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 0

36H: 2022/09/29 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2022/09/29 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.0

DURING THE LAST HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OF TROPICAL STORM
ASHLEY SLIGHTLY DECREASED BUT IS STILL PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE STILL MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY UPPER SHEAR (20KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA), THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE EXPOSED. WITHOUT ANY NEW DATA (ASCAT OR
MICROWAVE), THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE MAINTAINED AT 40KT.

IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WAS DRIVING THE
WESTWARD FLOW IS PROGRESSIVELY SHIFTING EASTWARD AND BECOMING MORE
NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST ORIENTED. ASHLEY SHOULD THEREFORE HAVE A MORE
WEST-SOUTH-WEST TO SOUTH-WEST TRAJECTORY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ASHLEY REACHED ITS PEAK IN THE LAST HOURS AND
SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN. INDEED, THE STRONG SHEAR AND THE DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS WILL FAVOUR AN EVOLUTION INTO A RESIDUAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE
NEXT 48H.

ASHLEY DOES NOT THREATEN POPULATED AREAS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 271150
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/1/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 1 (ASHLEY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 27/09/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.5 S / 79.9 E
(TREIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 280 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/09/2022 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 0

24H: 28/09/2022 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 0

36H: 29/09/2022 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

48H: 29/09/2022 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0 CI=2.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE DE LA TEMPETE
TROPICALE ASHLEY A LEGEREMENT DIMINUE MAIS EST TOUJOURS PRESENTE DANS
LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. AVEC LE CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE DE
NORD-EST TOUJOURS MODERE A FORT (20KT D'APRES LES DONNES DU CIMSS),
LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES CONTINUE A ETRE EXPOSE. EN ABSENCE DE
NOUVELLES DONNEES (ASCAT OU MICRO-ONDE), LES VENTS MAXIMUM SONT
MAINTENUS A 40KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QUI PILOTAIT LE
FLUX DIRECTEUR VERS L'OUEST SE DECALE PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'EST EN
S'AXANT DAVANTAGE NORD-EST/SUD-OUEST. ASHLEY DEVRAIT DONC AVOIR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE DAVANTAGE OUEST-SUD-OUEST A SUD-OUEST POUR LES PROCHAINES
48H.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, ASHLEY A ATTEINT SON PIC DANS LES DERNIERES
HEURES ET DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDRE EN INTENSITE. EN EFFET, LE
FORT CISAILLEMENT ET LES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC VONT FAVORISER
L'EVOLUTION EN SYSTEME RESIDUEL D'ICI LES PROCHAINES 48H.

ASHLEY NE MENACE PAS LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 271150
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/1/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ASHLEY)

2.A POSITION 2022/09/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 79.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/09/28 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0

24H: 2022/09/28 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 0

36H: 2022/09/29 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2022/09/29 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.0

DURING THE LAST HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OF TROPICAL STORM
ASHLEY SLIGHTLY DECREASED BUT IS STILL PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE STILL MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY UPPER SHEAR (20KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA), THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE EXPOSED. WITHOUT ANY NEW DATA (ASCAT OR
MICROWAVE), THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE MAINTAINED AT 40KT.

IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WAS DRIVING THE
WESTWARD FLOW IS PROGRESSIVELY SHIFTING EASTWARD AND BECOMING MORE
NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST ORIENTED. ASHLEY SHOULD THEREFORE HAVE A MORE
WEST-SOUTH-WEST TO SOUTH-WEST TRAJECTORY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ASHLEY REACHED ITS PEAK IN THE LAST HOURS AND
SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN. INDEED, THE STRONG SHEAR AND THE DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS WILL FAVOUR AN EVOLUTION INTO A RESIDUAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE
NEXT 48H.

ASHLEY DOES NOT THREATEN POPULATED AREAS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 271147
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/09/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 27/09/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ASHLEY) 1001 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 79.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/09/28 AT 00 UTC:
14.2 S / 77.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/09/28 AT 12 UTC:
15.3 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 270900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 220927065950
2022092706 02S ASHLEY 002 01 260 11 SATL 040
T000 134S 0808E 040 R034 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 065 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 135S 0786E 035 R034 000 NE QD 065 SE QD 080 SW QD 010 NW QD
T024 145S 0759E 030
T036 153S 0738E 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 13.4S 80.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 80.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 13.5S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 14.5S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.3S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 80.2E.
27SEP22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 619
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.
//
0222092518 114S 838E 20
0222092600 117S 837E 20
0222092606 121S 835E 20
0222092612 127S 831E 25
0222092618 131S 826E 40
0222092700 132S 819E 45
0222092706 134S 808E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 13.4S 80.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 80.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 13.5S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 14.5S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.3S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 80.2E.
27SEP22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 619
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 270609
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/09/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 27/09/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ASHLEY) 1001 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1 S / 80.8 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/09/27 AT 18 UTC:
13.7 S / 78.6 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/09/28 AT 06 UTC:
14.6 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 262100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 220926191444
2022092618 02S TWO 001 01 230 06 SATL 025
T000 131S 0826E 040 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 132S 0806E 040 R034 010 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 133S 0782E 035 R034 010 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 137S 0756E 030
T048 143S 0733E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 82.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 82.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 13.2S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 13.3S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 13.7S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 14.3S 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 82.1E.
26SEP22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 697 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND 272100Z.
//
0222092518 114S 838E 20
0222092600 117S 837E 20
0222092606 121S 835E 20
0222092612 127S 831E 25
0222092618 131S 826E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 82.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 82.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 13.2S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 13.3S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 13.7S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 14.3S 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 82.1E.
26SEP22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 697 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND 272100Z.
//
NNNN

>