Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IAN-22
in United States, Cuba

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 010840
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Sat Oct 01 2022

Ian's circulation continues to wind down, and marine observations
off the coast of North Carolina and Virginia, as well as earlier
ASCAT data, indicate that maximum winds in the southerly flow south
of the warm front have dropped below gale force. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt for this advisory, with those winds
occurring over the Atlantic waters. The bulk of the associated
rainfall is located north and west of the occluded/warm front,
stretching from the southern Appalachians northward across the
Mid-Atlantic states.

Ian's center has turned north-northwestward and slowed down over
central North Carolina, with an initial motion of 345/10 kt. The
system is forecast to turn back to the north and slow down further
later today, and global model fields indicate that the low center
should dissipate over south-central Virginia by this evening.
This is indicated in the new official forecast. A new frontal
low may form on the triple point over the Delmarva Peninsula or
adjacent Atlantic waters and scoot eastward later today or tonight.

Although seas 12 feet or greater continue over portions of the
adjacent Atlantic waters, they are not indicated in this forecast
package since they are so far east of Ian's center. Information on
seas and high winds over marine areas can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

This is the last advisory on Ian issued by the National Hurricane
Center. Future information on this system can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11
AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on
the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.


Key Messages:

1. Ongoing major to record river flooding will continue through
next week across portions of central Florida. Limited flash, urban,
and small stream flooding is possible across portions of the
central Appalachians and the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend.

2. Gusty winds are expected across portions of the central and
southern Appalachians through this morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 35.7N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 01/1800Z 36.8N 79.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 010840
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Sat Oct 01 2022

...IAN'S HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
MID-ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.7N 79.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF GREENSBORO NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian
was located near latitude 35.7 North, longitude 79.8 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near 12
mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward
speed is expected later today. On the forecast track, the center
of Ian is expected to move northward across central North Carolina
this morning and reach south-central Virginia by this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. These winds are occurring over the waters east
of North Carolina and Virginia. Additional weakening is expected,
and Ian is forecast to dissipate over south-central Virginia by
tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Gusty winds are expected to continue across portions of the
central and southern Appalachians through this morning.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches with local
maxima of 6 inches across portions of the Central Appalachians and
coastal Mid-Atlantic.

Major to record river flooding will continue across central Florida
through next week. Limited flash, urban and small stream flooding
is possible across the central Appalachians and the southern
Mid-Atlantic this weekend, with minor river flooding expected over
the coastal Carolinas.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the coast of the
southeastern United States and the northwestern Bahamas but should
gradually subside over the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on Ian can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 11 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH,
and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 010839
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
0900 UTC SAT OCT 01 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 79.8W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 79.8W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 79.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 36.8N 79.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.7N 79.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON IAN. FUTURE INFORMATION ON IAN CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 11
AM EDT (1500 UTC), UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4, WMO HEADER WTNT34
KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 010548
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 01 2022

...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA FROM IAN'S HEAVY RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.4N 79.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF GREENSBORO NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian
was located near latitude 35.4 North, longitude 79.7 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20
km/h). This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected today as Ian moves farther inland across central North
Carolina and Virginia.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. These winds are occurring over water off the
North Carolina coast. Ian is forecast to weaken further today
and dissipate by early Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
east of the center over the Atlantic waters.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Surge related flooding will continue to recede along
portions of the North Carolina coast, including the Pamlico Sound
and Neuse River as well as the Albemarle Sound. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather forecast office.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are still possible
over portions of North Carolina and southern Virginia early this
morning as Ian moves farther inland.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches, with local
maxima of 8 inches across portions of North Carolina, West Virginia,
and the southern Mid-Atlantic states.

Major to record river flooding will continue across central Florida
through next week. Considerable flash, urban and small stream
flooding is possible across portions of North Carolina and southern
Virginia through this morning, with minor river flooding possible
over Coastal Carolinas. Limited flooding is possible across
portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic over the weekend.

TORNADOES: A brief tornado remains possible through this morning
across far southeast Virginia and the southern Delmarva Peninsula.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian and a nearby frontal system are
affecting the east coast of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, and the
northwestern Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 010252
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Ian has a classic comma-shaped cloud pattern of an extratropical
cyclone in satellite imagery. The radar structure of the system has
degraded tonight, but surface observations indicate the center of
Ian is moving northward across the central portion of North
Carolina. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this
advisory, which is consistent with the latest Decay-SHIPS guidance
and some marine observations offshore of the Cape Fear region that
indicate sustained tropical-storm-force winds are still occurring
over water.

Ian is still moving northward at about 13 kt. This general motion is
expected to continue through Saturday, which will bring Ian across
the central portions of North Carolina and Virginia on Saturday.
Continued weakening is forecast, and the cyclone is expected to
dissipate by early Sunday. There were no notable changes made to the
NHC track or intensity forecast.

Because recent observations indicate that wind speeds over land have
diminished, the Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina. Similarly, coastal
water levels have receded below warning criteria along the coast of
North Carolina, and the Storm Surge Watches and Warnings there have
also been discontinued. However, heavy rain and gusty winds are
expected to continue into tomorrow morning across portions of the
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states.

Even though all tropical watches and warnings have been
discontinued, intermediate advisories will still be issued as long
as Ian continues to produce winds of tropical storm strength.


Key Messages:

1. Gusty winds are expected through early Saturday over portions of
South Carolina and North Carolina.

2. Ongoing major to record river flooding will continue through next
week across portions of central Florida. Considerable flooding is
possible across portions of the Carolinas and southeast Virginia.
Locally considerable flooding is possible across portions of
northwest North Carolina and southern Virginia tonight into early
Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 35.3N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 01/1200Z 36.6N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 02/0000Z 38.0N 79.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 010251
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...HEAVY RAIN, FLASH FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE AS IAN MOVES
INLAND OVER NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.3N 79.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF GREENSBORO NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watches and Warnings have been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian
was located near latitude 35.3 North, longitude 79.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 15 mph (24
km/h). This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected through Saturday as Ian moves farther inland across central
North Carolina and Virginia.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. These winds are occurring over water off the Carolina
coast. Ian is forecast to weaken through Saturday and dissipate by
early Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches)
based on surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Surge related flooding will continue to recede along
portions of the North Carolina coast, including the Pamlico Sound
and Neuse River as well as the Albemarle Sound. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather forecast office.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are expected to continue
over portions of North Carolina and South Carolina overnight as Ian
moves farther inland.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches, with local
maxima of 8 inches across portions of North Carolina, West Virginia,
and the southern Mid-Atlantic states.

Major to record river flooding will continue across central Florida
through next week. Considerable flash, urban and small stream
flooding is possible across portions of North Carolina and southern
Virginia tonight into early Saturday, with minor river flooding
possible over Coastal Carolinas. Limited flooding is possible across
portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend.

TORNADOES: A brief tornado remains possible through early Saturday
morning across far southeast Virginia and the southern Delmarva
Peninsula.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian and a nearby frontal system are
affecting the east coast of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, and the
northwestern Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 010250
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
0300 UTC SAT OCT 01 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 79.5W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......160NE 170SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 79.5W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 79.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 36.6N 79.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.0N 79.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.3N 79.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 01/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 302350
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...IAN BRINGING HEAVY RAIN, FLASH FLOODING, AND HIGH WINDS TO THE
CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 79.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NE OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of the South
Santee River.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Cape Fear.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued between Cape Fear and
Surf City, including the Cape Fear River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Neuse River North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian
was located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 79.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 15 mph (24
km/h). Ian is forecast to move farther inland across central North
Carolina overnight into Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. These winds are occurring primarily over water.
Ian should continue to weaken overnight and dissipate over central
North Carolina or Virginia late tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. A NOS station at Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville
Beach, North Carolina recently reported sustained winds of 48 mph
(78 km/h) with a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches)
based on surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Surf City, NC to Duck, NC including Pamlico and Neuse
Rivers...2-4 ft
* South Santee River to Surf City, NC including the Cape Fear
River...1-2 ft
* Albemarle Sound...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in
portions of the warning area through overnight.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

* Northeast South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12
inches.
* Central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern Virginia:
3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches
* Elsewhere in Virginia, portions of West Virginia, Washington D.C.,
and Maryland: 1 to 3 inches, local maxima of 5 inches.

Major-to-record river flooding will continue across central Florida
through next week. Considerable flash and urban flooding, and minor
river flooding is possible across coastal and northeast South
Carolina, coastal North Carolina and southeast Virginia tonight.
Locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding is
possible tonight into early Saturday across portions of northwest
North Carolina and southwest Virginia. Limited flooding is possible
across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across
eastern North Carolina, shifting northward into southeast Virginia
tonight through early Saturday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian and a nearby frontal system are
affecting the east coast of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, and the
northwestern Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 302044
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Deep convection has ceased now that Ian has lost its energy source
from the Atlantic Ocean, and the circulation has wrapped into cooler
surface air. Thus, Ian has transitioned into an extratropical low.
The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt based on elevated
hurricane-force winds still being observed on radar offshore of
eastern South Carolina.

Ian continues to move faster to the north, around 13 kt, and should
turn to the north-northwest later today due to a shortwave trough
over the southeastern United States. Ian should rapidly weaken in
the cool airmass and dissipate by early Sunday over western North
Carolina or Virginia. No significant changes were made to the
track or intensity forecast.

It should be emphasized that just because Ian has become a
post-tropical cyclone that the danger is not over. Dangerous storm
surge, flash flooding and high winds are still in the forecast from
this cyclone.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge this evening
along the coasts of the Carolinas within the Storm Surge Warning
areas.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the coasts of South
Carolina and southeastern North Carolina within the warning area
through early Saturday.

3. Ongoing major-to-record river flooding will continue through
next week across portions of central Florida. Considerable flooding
is expected today across portions of coastal and northeast South
Carolina, coastal North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Locally
considerable flooding is possible across portions of northwest North
Carolina and southern Virginia today into early Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 33.9N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 01/0600Z 35.8N 79.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 01/1800Z 37.5N 80.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 302043
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...IAN BECOMES POST-TROPICAL BUT THE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE,
FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH WIND THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 79.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from south of the
South Santee River.

The entire Hurricane Warning and Watch areas have been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Savannah
River to Altamaha Sound.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Edisto Beach to Cape
Fear North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River to Cape Fear North Carolina
* Neuse River North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico River
* Cape Fear River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian
was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 79.2 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 15 mph (24
km/h). Ian is forecast to move farther inland overnight over
eastern South Carolina, move across central North Carolina early
tomorrow and western Virginia by early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. These winds are occurring primarily over water.
Ian should continue to weaken overnight and dissipate over western
North Carolina or Virginia late tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. A WeatherFlow station at Oak Island, North
Carolina recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) with
a gust to 78 mph (126 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches)
based on surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Cape Fear River...2-4 ft
* South Santee River to Duck, including Pamlico and Neuse
Rivers...2-4 ft
* Albemarle Sound...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in
portions of the warning area through overnight.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

* Northeast South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12
inches.
* Central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern Virginia:
3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches
* Elsewhere in Virginia, portions of West Virginia, Washington D.C.,
and Maryland: 1 to 3 inches, local maxima of 5 inches.

Major-to-record river flooding will continue across central Florida
through next week. Considerable flash and urban flooding, and minor
river flooding is possible across coastal and northeast South
Carolina, coastal North Carolina and southeast Virginia today.
Locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding is
possible today into early Saturday across portions of northwest
North Carolina and southwest Virginia. Limited flooding is possible
across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this evening across
eastern North Carolina, shifting northward into southeast Virginia
tonight through early Saturday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian and a nearby frontal system are
affecting the east coast of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, and the
northwestern Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 302042
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
2100 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SOUTH OF THE
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

THE ENTIRE HURRICANE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SAVANNAH
RIVER TO ALTAMAHA SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EDISTO BEACH TO CAPE
FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
* NEUSE RIVER NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO RIVER
* CAPE FEAR RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 79.2W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 80SW 40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 130SE 100SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..290NE 280SE 200SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 79.2W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 79.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 35.8N 79.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 37.5N 80.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 79.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 01/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 301814
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
215 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...HURRICANE IAN MAKES LANDFALL NEAR GEORGETOWN SOUTH CAROLINA...

Surface observations indicate that the center of Hurricane Ian
made landfall at 205 pm EDT (1805 UTC) near Georgetown, South
Carolina with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h) and an
estimated minimum central pressure of 977 mb (28.85 inches).


SUMMARY OF 205 PM EDT...1805 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 79.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake/Cangialosi/Huffman

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 301759
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...THE CENTER OF IAN IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH
FLOODING LASHING THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 79.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Cape Fear North Carolina
* Neuse River North Carolina
* St. Johns River Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to Savannah River
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico River
* Cape Fear River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Cape Fear to Surf City North Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 79.1 West. Ian is moving toward
the north near 15 mph (24 km/h). Ian is forecast to turn toward
the north-northwest by tonight and will move inland across
eastern South Carolina and central North Carolina tonight and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ian should weaken rapidly after landfall soon and
transition into a post-tropical cyclone overnight. Ian should
dissipate over western North Carolina or Virginia late Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km). A WeatherFlow station at Morris Island
Lighthouse recently reported sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h)
with a gust to 82 mph (131 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches)
based on Air Force dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Isle of the Palms to Little River Inlet...4-7 ft
* Little River Inlet to Cape Fear...3-5 ft
* Savannah River to Isle of the Palms...2-4 ft
* Cape Fear River...2-4 ft
* East of Cape Fear to Duck, including Pamlico and Neuse
Rivers...2-4 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Savannah River...1-2 ft
* Albemarle Sound...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring within the Hurricane
Warning area in South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina soon.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in parts of the warning
areas on the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas, and hurricane
conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in North
Carolina by this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

* Northeast South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12
inches.
* Central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern Virginia:
3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches

Major-to-record river flooding will continue across central Florida
through next week. Considerable flash and urban flooding, and minor
river flooding is possible across coastal and northeast South
Carolina, coastal North Carolina and southeast Virginia today.
Locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding is
possible today into early Saturday across portions of northwest
North Carolina and southwest Virginia. Limited flooding is possible
across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this evening across
eastern North Carolina, shifting northward into southeast Virginia
tonight through early Saturday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian and a nearby frontal system are
affecting the east coast of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, and the
northwestern Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. Swells will subside along
the northern coast of Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan
peninsula today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 300847
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Ian continues to display hybrid tropical/extratropical
characteristics, and the satellite appearance is increasingly
taking on the pattern of an occluded low. Some deep convection has
still been developing just northwest of the center, however. Based
on SFMR measurements from an earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft, the initial intensity is 75 kt, and as of right
now, all sustained hurricane-force winds are located within the
western semicircle.

The motion of Ian's center has been somewhat discontinuous during
the past 6 to 12 hours, with multiple swirls apparently rotating
around a common center. The smooth motion is toward the
north-northeast, or 015/9 kt, although Ian should turn northward
very soon. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected by tonight
as Ian moves around and merges with a shortwave trough over the
southeastern United States. Track models appear to have stabilized,
and all show Ian's center crossing the coast of South Carolina this
afternoon, and then moving across eastern South Carolina and central
North Carolina tonight and on Saturday. Since there has been no
noticeable shift in the guidance on this cycle, the new NHC forecast
essentially lies right on top of the previous prediction.

Although very strong southwesterly shear is affecting Ian, the
hurricane is likely deriving its energy from a mixture of the warm
waters of the Gulf Stream and favorable interaction with the
southeastern U.S. shortwave trough. Those two influences should
continue today, and no significant changes to the intensity are
expected up until Ian's anticipated landfall this afternoon, which
is generally in line with the SHIPS and LGEM guidance. It should be
noted that hurricane-force winds are expected to develop within the
eastern semicircle soon, particularly as Ian begins to move faster
toward the north. After landfall, fast weakening is expected, and
Ian is also forecast to become fully extratropical by 36 hours, if
not a little sooner. The extratropical low is then forecast to
dissipate near the North Carolina/Virginia border by Saturday night.

One additional note: a frontal boundary that extends to the
northeast of Ian is expected to shift inland later today, and the
extensive area of tropical-storm-force winds shown in the
northeastern quadrant is forecast to contract considerably later
today and tonight.


Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge today along the
coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas within the
Storm Surge Warning areas. Residents in these areas should follow
any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected along the coasts of South
Carolina and southeastern North Carolina within the Hurricane
Warning area by this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible
in North Carolina within the Hurricane Watch area by this afternoon.
Preparations should be rushed to completion.

3. Ongoing major to record river flooding will continue through next
week across portions of central Florida. Considerable flooding is
expected through today across portions of coastal and northeast
South Carolina. Locally considerable flooding is possible across
portions of North Carolina and southern Virginia through today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 30.8N 79.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 32.5N 79.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 34.6N 79.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 01/1800Z 36.3N 80.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 300846
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLOODING RAINS LIKELY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 79.1W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Altamaha
Sound, Georgia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to Cape Fear North Carolina
* Neuse River North Carolina
* St. Johns River Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to Savannah River
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico River
* Cape Fear River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Cape Fear to Surf City North Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 79.1 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north
with an increase in forward speed is expected this morning,
followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by tonight. On the
forecast track, the center of Ian will approach and reach the coast
of South Carolina today, and then move farther inland across
eastern South Carolina and central North Carolina tonight and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Ian reaches
the coast later today. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall,
and Ian is forecast to become an extratropical low over North
Carolina tonight or on Saturday. The low is then expected to
dissipate by Saturday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 485
miles (780 km). A sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust
to 52 mph (83 km/h) were recently reported at the Hilton Head
Airport in South Carolina. An elevated WeatherFlow station at the
Winyah Bay Range Light in South Carolina measured a sustained wind
of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 71 mph (115 km/h) during the past
couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Edisto Beach to Little River Inlet...4-7 ft
* Little River Inlet to Cape Fear...3-5 ft
* Savannah River to Edisto Beach...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Savannah River...2-4 ft
* Cape Fear River...2-4 ft
* St. Johns River...2-4 ft
* East of Cape Fear to Duck, including Pamlico and Neuse
Rivers...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line... 1-3 ft
* Albemarle Sound...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in parts of the
warning areas on the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas, and
hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the Hurricane Warning
area in South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina by this
afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area in North Carolina by this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

* Northeast South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12
inches.
* Central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern Virginia:
3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches across northwest North
Carolina and southwest Virginia.

Major to record river flooding will continue across central Florida
through next week. Considerable flash and urban flooding, and minor
river flooding is possible across coastal and northeast South
Carolina today. Locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream
flooding is possible today into Saturday across portions of
northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia. Limited flooding is
possible across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening
across eastern North Carolina, shifting northward into southeast
Virginia overnight through early Saturday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian and a nearby frontal system are
affecting the east coast of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, and the
northwestern Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. Swells will subside along
the northern coast of Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan
peninsula today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 300846
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
0900 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF ALTAMAHA
SOUND...GEORGIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
* NEUSE RIVER NORTH CAROLINA
* ST. JOHNS RIVER FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO SAVANNAH RIVER
* CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO RIVER
* CAPE FEAR RIVER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 79.1W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 80SW 120NW.
34 KT.......420NE 130SE 100SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 79.1W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 79.1W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.5N 79.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.6N 79.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 36.3N 80.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 79.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 300554
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY...
...FLOODING RAINS LIKELY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 79.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Cape Fear
* Neuse River
* St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Cape Fear

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Savannah River
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico River
* Cape Fear River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Cape Fear to Surf City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 79.2 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north
is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest with an increase in forward speed tonight. On
the forecast track, Ian will approach and reach the coast of South
Carolina today. The center will move farther inland across the
Carolinas tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Ian makes
landfall later today, and rapid weakening is forecast over the
southeastern United States late today into Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415
miles (665 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Edisto Beach to Little River Inlet...4-7 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Edisto Beach...3-5 ft
* Litter River Inlet to Cape Fear...3-5 ft
* Cape Fear River...2-4 ft
* St. Johns River...2-4 ft
* East of Cape Fear to Duck, including Pamlico and Neuse
Rivers...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line... 1-3 ft
* Albemarle Sound...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in parts of the
warning areas on the northeast coast of Florida, Georgia, and the
Carolinas, and hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the
Hurricane Warning area later today. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area in North Carolina later
today.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall amounts:

* Coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.
* Northeast South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of
12 inches.
* Central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern Virginia:
3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches across northwest North
Carolina and southwest Virginia.

Major to record river flooding will continue across central Florida
through next week. Considerable flash and urban flooding, and minor
river flooding is possible across coastal and northeast South
Carolina today. Locally considerable flash, urban, and small
stream flooding is possible today into Saturday across portions of
northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia. Limited flooding is
possible across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend.

TORNADOES: The potential for a few tornadoes will begin later this
morning along a portion of the coastal Carolinas, spread inland
across eastern North Carolina during the afternoon and evening, and
shift into southeast Virginia overnight through early Saturday
morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian and a nearby frontal system are
affecting the east coast of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, and the
northwestern Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. Swells will subside along
the northern coast of Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan
peninsula today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 300412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 30.09.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11L ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 38.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2022 0 19.4N 38.5W 1014 22
1200UTC 30.09.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ORLENE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 106.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2022 0 15.3N 106.5W 1004 27
1200UTC 30.09.2022 12 16.1N 106.9W 1004 28
0000UTC 01.10.2022 24 16.9N 107.3W 1002 26
1200UTC 01.10.2022 36 17.5N 107.3W 1001 25
0000UTC 02.10.2022 48 18.3N 107.4W 1001 27
1200UTC 02.10.2022 60 19.6N 107.6W 1004 32
0000UTC 03.10.2022 72 20.6N 107.9W 1005 32
1200UTC 03.10.2022 84 22.3N 108.0W 1006 34
0000UTC 04.10.2022 96 22.5N 107.5W 1008 25
1200UTC 04.10.2022 108 23.2N 107.1W 1008 31
0000UTC 05.10.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N 79.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2022 0 29.5N 79.5W 988 58
1200UTC 30.09.2022 12 31.4N 79.2W 984 55
0000UTC 01.10.2022 24 34.5N 79.4W 987 37
1200UTC 01.10.2022 36 35.7N 80.4W 1002 25
0000UTC 02.10.2022 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 10.3N 34.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.10.2022 96 10.5N 35.2W 1009 28
1200UTC 04.10.2022 108 11.0N 36.4W 1008 29
0000UTC 05.10.2022 120 11.8N 38.3W 1007 27
1200UTC 05.10.2022 132 12.6N 39.9W 1006 29
0000UTC 06.10.2022 144 13.6N 41.7W 1006 32

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 15.3N 111.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.10.2022 96 15.3N 111.8W 1009 18
1200UTC 04.10.2022 108 16.4N 112.5W 1008 21
0000UTC 05.10.2022 120 16.7N 113.3W 1007 25
1200UTC 05.10.2022 132 17.0N 113.7W 1008 21
0000UTC 06.10.2022 144 17.3N 114.1W 1007 21

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 13.6N 26.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2022 132 14.5N 28.6W 1010 30
0000UTC 06.10.2022 144 16.4N 32.1W 1011 35


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300412

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 300412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.09.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11L ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 38.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.09.2022 19.4N 38.5W WEAK
12UTC 30.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM ORLENE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 106.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.09.2022 15.3N 106.5W WEAK
12UTC 30.09.2022 16.1N 106.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2022 16.9N 107.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2022 17.5N 107.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2022 18.3N 107.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2022 19.6N 107.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2022 20.6N 107.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2022 22.3N 108.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2022 22.5N 107.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2022 23.2N 107.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N 79.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.09.2022 29.5N 79.5W MODERATE
12UTC 30.09.2022 31.4N 79.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2022 34.5N 79.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2022 35.7N 80.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.10.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 10.3N 34.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.10.2022 10.5N 35.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 04.10.2022 11.0N 36.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2022 11.8N 38.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2022 12.6N 39.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2022 13.6N 41.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 15.3N 111.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.10.2022 15.3N 111.8W WEAK
12UTC 04.10.2022 16.4N 112.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2022 16.7N 113.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2022 17.0N 113.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2022 17.3N 114.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 13.6N 26.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.10.2022 14.5N 28.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2022 16.4N 32.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300412

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 300311
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1115 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IAN A LITTLE
STRONGER...

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Ian's maximum winds have increased to near 85 mph (140
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1115 PM EDT...0315 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 79.3W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 300250
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Ian continues to have the appearance of a hybrid tropical cyclone,
having the characteristics of both an extratropical low with some
frontal features, and a sheared tropical cyclone with convection
well removed from the low-level center. The system is interacting
with a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough just to its west, and
this interaction may be contributing to slight strengthening. Based
on a blend of flight-level and SFMR-observed winds, along with
dropsonde measurements, from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
the current intensity has been increased a little to 70 kt for this
advisory. The strongest winds are currently occuring over the
northwestern quadrant of the hurricane.

Southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to remain high and the
environmental air mass will stay dry until landfall. However, Ian
could intensify a little more within the next 12 hours or so due to
trough interaction and extraction of energy from the underlying warm
Gulf Stream waters. Therefore the NHC forecast calls for slight
strengthening before the system reaches the coast. This is above the
available intensity model guidance. It should be emphasized that
although Ian is not expected to be a classic hurricane at landfall,
this does not diminish the threat it poses. Strong winds and storm
surge will also extend far from the center and will begin well
before the center arrives.

Ian continues to move north-northeastward at about 030/9 kt. Over
the next day or so, the cyclone is expected to turn northward and
then north-northwestward as it moves along the eastern side of the
shortwave trough. The dynamical model consensus, TVCN, has again
shifted slightly eastward on this cycle. Therefore the NHC track
prediction is, again, moved a little eastward from the previous
official forecast.


Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge through Friday
along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected across the coasts of South
Carolina and southeastern North Carolina beginning early Friday,
where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Hurricane conditions are
possible in North Carolina on Friday where a Hurricane Watch is in
effect. Preparations should be rushed to completion.

3. Ongoing major to record river flooding will continue through next
week across portions of central Florida. Considerable flooding is
expected through Friday across portions of coastal and northeast
South Carolina. Locally considerable flooding is possible across
portions of North Carolina and southern Virginia through Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 30.2N 79.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 31.7N 79.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 34.0N 79.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 01/1200Z 36.0N 80.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 02/0000Z 37.5N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 300249
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING, STORM SURGE AND
STRONG WINDS IN THE CAROLINAS TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 79.3W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning south of the Flagler/Volusia County Line
has been discontinued.

The Hurricane Watch south of the Savannah River has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Cape Fear
* Neuse River
* St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Cape Fear

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Savannah River
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico River
* Cape Fear River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Cape Fear to Surf City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 79.3 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north
is expected early Friday, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest with an increase in forward speed Friday night. On
the forecast track, Ian will approach the coast of South Carolina on
Friday. The center will move farther inland across the Carolinas
Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Ian could strengthen a little more before
landfall tomorrow, and is forecast to rapidly weaken over the
southeastern United States late Friday into Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles
(665 km). A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) with a gust of 64
mph (104 km/h) was recently reported west of the center by a NOAA
and Saildrone Inc. research mission vessel.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Edisto Beach to Little River Inlet...4-7 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Edisto Beach...3-5 ft
* Litter River Inlet to Cape Fear...3-5 ft
* Cape Fear River...2-4 ft
* St. Johns River...2-4 ft
* East of Cape Fear to Duck, including Pamlico and Neuse
Rivers...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line... 1-3 ft
* Albemarle Sound...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the
Hurricane Warning area starting early Friday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning overnight.

Tropical storm conditions are now occurring in parts of the warning
area on the northeast coast of Florida and should spread northward
along the Georgia and North Carolina coasts tonight through Friday.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in
North Carolina on Friday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall amounts:

* Coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.
* Northeast South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of
12 inches.
* Central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern Virginia:
3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches across northwest North
Carolina and southwest Virginia.

Major to record river flooding will continue across central Florida
through next week. Considerable flash and urban flooding, and minor
river flooding is possible across coastal and northeast South
Carolina Friday. Locally considerable flash, urban, and small
stream flooding is possible Friday into Saturday across portions of
northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia. Limited flooding is
possible across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend.

TORNADOES: Potential for a few tornadoes will begin late Friday
morning along a portion of the coastal Carolinas, spread inland
across eastern North Carolina during the afternoon and evening, and
shift into southeast Virginia overnight through early Saturday
morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula, Florida
and Georgia. Swells will increase along the coasts of South Carolina
and North Carolina. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 300248
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
0300 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO CAPE FEAR
* NEUSE RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO CAPE FEAR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO SAVANNAH RIVER
* CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO RIVER
* CAPE FEAR RIVER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 79.3W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT.......120NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT.......360NE 140SE 150SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 79.3W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 79.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.7N 79.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.0N 79.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 36.0N 80.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.5N 81.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 79.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 292357
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...IAN TAKING AIM AT THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA WITH
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING, STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 79.4W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Sebastian Inlet is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia Line to Cape Fear
* Neuse River
* St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Cape Fear

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet to Savannah River
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico River
* Cape Fear River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Savannah River
* East of Cape Fear to Surf City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 29.7 North,
longitude 79.4 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northeast near
10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight,
followed by a turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in
forward speed Friday night. On the forecast track, Ian will
approach the coast of South Carolina on Friday. The center will
move farther inland across the Carolinas Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ian could slightly strengthen before landfall tomorrow, and
is forecast to rapidly weaken over the southeastern United States
late Friday into Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415
miles (665 km). St. Augustine Beach Pier recently reported a
sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet...4-7 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Edisto Beach...4-6 ft
* Murrells Inlet to Cape Fear...3-5 ft
* Cape Fear River...2-4 ft
* St. Johns River...2-4 ft
* East of Cape Fear to Duck, including Pamlico and
Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Albemarle Sound...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the
Hurricane Warning area starting early Friday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning overnight.

Tropical storm conditions are now occurring in parts of the
warning area on the east coast of Florida and should spread
northward along the Georgia and North Carolina coasts tonight
through Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the
Hurricane Watch area in northeastern Florida and Georgia today into
Friday, and in the watch area in North Carolina on Friday morning.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall amounts:

* Coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts.
* Northeast South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12
inches
* Upstate and central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern
Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches across
northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia.

Major-to-record river flooding will continue across central Florida
through next week. Considerable flash and urban flooding, and minor
river flooding is possible across South Carolina through Friday.
Locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding is
possible this weekend across portions of northwest North Carolina
and southwest Virginia. Limited flooding is possible across portions
of the southern Mid-Atlantic.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible Friday across the
coastal Carolinas and southeast Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula, Florida
and Georgia. Swells will increase along the coasts of South Carolina
and North Carolina. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 292059
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Ian remains a hybrid tropical cyclone with characteristics of an
extratropical low, including a comma-pattern on satellite images
and some frontal features in the outer circulation. The cyclone
continues to have a warm core, however, and all indications are that
it will re-develop strong convection over the center overnight.
Based on Melbourne Doppler radar velocity data of persistent 70-80-
kt winds from 5-10 thousand feet, and earlier sustained winds of
about 60 kt near that band from an observation in New Smyrna Beach,
the initial wind speed is raised to 65 kt. This makes Ian a
hurricane again. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to fly through Ian this evening and will provide a
better intensity estimate.

Ian finally appears to be making more of a turn to the north-
northeast this afternoon. The hurricane should turn to the north
overnight due to the incoming trough diving southward over the
southern United States and then north-northwestward on Saturday
with an increase in forward speed. While the overall synoptic
pattern is similar in all of the models, Ian has been uncooperative
and remains right of the previous track. Thus, the new forecast is
adjusted to the east, and lies east of the model consensus.
Assuming Ian re-develops thunderstorms near the core overnight, it
should take the expected north-northwest turn, but this shouldn't
be considered a confident forecast yet. Because of the
uncertainty, the Hurricane Warning has been extended eastward into
North Carolina to Cape Fear.

The hurricane is moving over the Gulf Stream for the next day or
so, where it has some time for further re-intensification.
Additionally, the trough interaction should provide a baroclinic
energy kick. These factors point to some strengthening before
landfall tomorrow. The new forecast is close to the GFS and
regional hurricane models and is a bit stronger than before. It
should be emphasized that while we don't expect Ian to be a classic
hurricane at landfall, this does not diminish the danger it poses.
Strong winds and storm surge will also extend far from the center
and will begin well before the center arrives.


Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge through Friday
along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected across coasts of South
Carolina and southeastern North Carolina beginning early Friday,
where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Hurricane conditions are
possible by tonight along the coasts of northeastern Florida,
Georgia, and North Carolina where a Hurricane Watch is in
effect. Preparations should be rushed to completion since
tropical-storm-force winds will begin well before the center
approaches the coast.

3. Ongoing major-to-record river flooding will continue across
portions of central Florida, with considerable flooding in northern
Florida. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected across
coastal portions of northeast Florida through Friday. Local
significant flooding in southeastern Georgia and eastern South
Carolina is expected through the end of the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 29.3N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 30.5N 79.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 32.8N 79.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 35.0N 80.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 01/1800Z 36.5N 81.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 292057
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...IAN BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN...
...TAKING AIM AT THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA WITH LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING, STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 79.9W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Little River Inlet to
Cape Fear.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the coast of North Carolina
from Little River Inlet to Cape Fear.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Cape Fear River.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from east of Cape Fear to Surf
City, North Carolina.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia Line to Cape Fear
* Neuse River
* St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Cape Fear

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Vero Beach Florida to Savannah River
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico River
* Cape Fear River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Savannah River
* East of Cape Fear to Surf City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 79.9 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest with an increase in forward speed Friday night. On
the forecast track, Ian will approach the coast of South Carolina on
Friday. The center will move farther inland across the Carolinas
Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Ian could slightly strengthen before landfall
tomorrow, and is forecast to rapidly weaken over the southeastern
United States late Friday into Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415
miles (665 km). Kennedy Space Center Tower 1 recently reported a
wind gust to 89 mph (145 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet...4-7 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Edisto Beach...4-6 ft
* Murrells Inlet to Cape Fear...3-5 ft
* Cape Fear River...2-4 ft
* St. Johns River...2-4 ft
* East of Cape Fear to Duck, including Pamlico and
Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Albemarle Sound...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the
Hurricane Warning area starting early Friday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning overnight.

Tropical storm conditions are now occurring in parts of the
warning area on the east coasts of Florida and should spread
northward along the Georgia and North Carolina coasts today through
Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area in northeastern Florida and Georgia today into Friday,
and in the watch area in North Carolina on Friday morning.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

* Coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts.
* Northeast South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12
inches
* Upstate and central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern
Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches across
northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia.

Major-to-record river flooding will continue across central Florida
through next week. Considerable flash and urban flooding, and minor
river flooding is possible across South Carolina through Friday.
Locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding is
possible this weekend across portions of northwest North Carolina
and southwest Virginia. Limited flooding is possible across portions
of the southern Mid-Atlantic.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible Friday across the
coastal Carolinas and southeast Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula, Florida
and Georgia. Swells will increase along the coasts of South Carolina
and North Carolina. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 292057
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
2100 UTC THU SEP 29 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO
CAPE FEAR.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO CAPE FEAR.

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EAST OF CAPE FEAR TO SURF
CITY...NORTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO CAPE FEAR
* NEUSE RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO CAPE FEAR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VERO BEACH FLORIDA TO SAVANNAH RIVER
* EAST OF CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO RIVER
* CAPE FEAR RIVER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER
* EAST OF CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 79.9W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
50 KT.......120NE 0SE 40SW 100NW.
34 KT.......360NE 140SE 150SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 79.9W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 80.1W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.5N 79.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.8N 79.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT...210NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 35.0N 80.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 36.5N 81.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 79.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 291755
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING, STORM SURGE
AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA, GEORGIA, AND
THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 80.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Jupiter Inlet
to Vero Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia Line to Little River Inlet
* Neuse River
* St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Little River Inlet

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Vero Beach Florida to Savannah River
* Little River Inlet to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Savannah River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 80.0 West. Ian is moving
toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected late today, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest with an increase in forward speed Friday night. On
the forecast track, Ian will approach the coast of South Carolina on
Friday. The center will move farther inland across the Carolinas
Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ian is expected to become a hurricane again by this evening
and make landfall as a hurricane on Friday, with rapid weakening
forecast after landfall.

Ian is a large cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward
up to 415 miles (665 km) from the center. A WeatherFlow station in
New Smyrna Beach recently reported a sustained wind of 69 mph (111
km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Edisto Beach to South Santee River...4-7 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Edisto Beach...4-6 ft
* South Santee River to Little River Inlet...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River...2-4 ft
* East of Little River Inlet to Duck, including Pamlico and
Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee including Charlotte Harbor... 1-3 ft
* Albemarle Sound...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the
Hurricane Warning area starting early Friday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning overnight.

Tropical storm conditions are now occurring in parts of the
warning area on the east coasts of Florida and should spread
northward along the Georgia and North Carolina coasts today through
Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area in northeastern Florida and Georgia today into Friday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

* East Central to Northeast Florida: Additional rainfall of 2 to 4
inches, with storm totals around 20 inches in spots.
* Coastal Georgia: 2 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts.
* Lowcountry of South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of
12 inches.
* Upstate and central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern
Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches across western
North Carolina.

Major-to-record river flooding will continue across central Florida
through next week. Considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is
expected across coastal portions of northeast Florida, southeastern
Georgia, and eastern South Carolina through Friday. Locally
considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible
this weekend across portions of the southern Appalachians, where
landslides will be possible as well. Limited flooding is possible
across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible Friday across the
coastal Carolinas.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
Florida. Swells will increase along the coasts of Georgia,
South Carolina and North Carolina today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 291612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.09.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 36.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.09.2022 18.4N 36.8W WEAK
00UTC 30.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM ORLENE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 105.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.09.2022 15.0N 105.3W WEAK
00UTC 30.09.2022 15.9N 106.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2022 16.6N 107.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2022 17.0N 108.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2022 17.5N 108.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2022 18.4N 108.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2022 19.2N 108.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2022 20.3N 108.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2022 21.1N 109.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2022 22.5N 109.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2022 23.8N 109.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2022 23.9N 110.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2022 24.9N 109.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N 80.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.09.2022 28.4N 80.6W MODERATE
00UTC 30.09.2022 29.7N 79.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.09.2022 31.7N 79.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2022 34.7N 79.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2022 36.1N 79.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.10.2022 37.4N 78.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 10.4N 34.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.10.2022 10.4N 34.2W WEAK
00UTC 04.10.2022 10.7N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2022 11.0N 37.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2022 11.9N 38.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2022 12.8N 40.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 291612

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 291500
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

The center of Ian has emerged into the western Atlantic Ocean to
the north of Cape Canaveral. While satellite images show the
system is becoming a hybrid cyclone, with frontal features outside
of the core of Ian, the winds from multiple sources are notable.
Velocity data from NWS Doppler radar indicate maximum winds of about
70-75 kt at 10,000 ft over land, and sustained winds of about 55 kt
were recorded in the Daytona Beach area earlier this morning. These
data support a higher initial intensity, now 60 kt for this
advisory.

The storm is moving northeastward at about 8 kt. Ian has stubbornly
gone east of the track forecast for the past couple of days and has
moved back over water faster than expected. A mid-level shortwave
trough moving southward across the southern United States should
turn Ian northward overnight and north-northwestward on Saturday.
The official track forecast is shifted to the east, consistent with
the latest consensus guidance.

Ian should move over the Gulf Stream tonight and tomorrow for a
longer period of time than previously anticipated, which should
maintain Ian's central convection. Additionally, an increased
pressure gradient on the northwestern side from a stationary front
near the southeastern US, should provide a boost to the wind speeds
on that side of the storm. We now expect Ian to become a hurricane
again by this evening. As the system approaches South Carolina, Ian
should maintain this intensity, and Hurricane Warnings have been
issued for the entire coast of South Carolina. This scenario is
consistent with the global and regional hurricane model guidance.
It is worth noting that Ian is forecast to have atypical structure
when it nears the southeastern United States, and strong winds will
extend well ahead of the center, even on the northwestern side.


Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge through Friday
along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected across the South Carolina
coast beginning early Friday, where a Hurricane Warning has been
issued. Hurricane conditions are possible by tonight along the
coasts of northeastern Florida and Georgia, where a Hurricane Watch
is in effect. Preparations should be rushed to completion since
tropical-storm-force winds will begin well before the center
approaches the coast.

3. Ongoing major-to-record river flooding will continue across
portions of central Florida, with considerable flooding in northern
Florida. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected across
coastal portions of northeast Florida through Friday. Local
significant flooding in southeastern Georgia and eastern South
Carolina is expected through the end of the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 28.7N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 30.0N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 31.8N 79.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 34.0N 80.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 01/1200Z 35.9N 81.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 02/0000Z 37.0N 82.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 291500
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA
WITH IAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 80.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from South Santee River to
Little River Inlet, SC, and for the Neuse River.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the entire coast of South
Carolina from the Savannah River to Little River Inlet.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Duck,
North Carolina, including Pamlico Sound.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Little River Inlet to
Duck, including the Pamlico River.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Gulf coast
of Florida and Lake Okeechobee

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia Line to Little River Inlet
* Neuse River
* St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Little River Inlet

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet Florida to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Savannah River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 80.4 West. Ian is moving
toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected late today, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest with an increase in forward speed Friday night. On
the forecast track, Ian will approach the coast of South Carolina on
Friday. The center will move farther inland across the Carolinas
Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Ian is expected to become a hurricane again
this evening and make landfall as a hurricane on Friday, with rapid
weakening forecast after landfall.

Ian is a large cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward
up to 415 miles (665 km) from the center. A NOAA CMAN station at the
Saint Johns County pier in Saint Augustine Beach recently reported a
sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h) and a gust of 61 mph (98 km/h).
A WeatherSTEM station reported a gust of 74 mph (119 km/h) was
reported at Marineland, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Edisto Beach to South Santee River...4-7 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Edisto Beach...4-6 ft
* South Santee River to Little River Inlet...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River...2-4 ft
* East of Little River Inlet to Duck, including Pamlico and
Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee including Charlotte Harbor... 1-3 ft
* Albemarle Sound...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin over the
Hurricane Warning area starting early Friday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning overnight.

Tropical storm conditions are now occurring in parts of the
warning area on the east coasts of Florida and should spread
northward along the Georgia and North Carolina coasts today through
Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area in northeastern Florida and Georgia today into Friday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

* East Central to Northeast Florida: Additional rainfall of 2 to 4
inches, with storm totals around 20 inches in spots.
* Coastal Georgia: 2 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts.
* Lowcountry of South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of
12 inches.
* Upstate and central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern
Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches across western
North Carolina.

Major-to-record river flooding will continue across central Florida
through next week. Considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is
expected across coastal portions of northeast Florida, southeastern
Georgia, and eastern South Carolina through Friday. Locally
considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible
this weekend across portions of the southern Appalachians, where
landslides will be possible as well. Limited flooding is possible
across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible Friday across the
coastal Carolinas.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
Florida. Swells will increase along the coasts of Georgia,
South Carolina and North Carolina today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 291459
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO
LITTLE RIVER INLET...SC...AND FOR THE NEUSE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO DUCK...
NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO
DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO RIVER.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE GULF COAST
OF FLORIDA AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* NEUSE RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET FLORIDA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO RIVER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 80.4W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......360NE 120SE 150SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 80.4W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 80.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.0N 79.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...330NE 130SE 110SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.8N 79.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT...270NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.0N 80.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.9N 81.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.0N 82.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 80.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 291200
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...IAN PRODUCING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OVER EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING, STORM SURGE AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA, GEORGIA, AND THE
CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 80.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM E OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM W OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from Boca Raton to Jupiter Inlet has
been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from the Middle of
Longboat Key south to Flamingo including Charlotte Harbor.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River
* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass Florida
* Jupiter Inlet Florida to Cape Lookout North Carolina
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 80.7 West. Ian is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected later today, followed by a turn toward
the north and north-northwest with an increase in forward speed
Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ian
is expected to move off the east-central coast of Florida soon and
then approach the coast of South Carolina on Friday. The
center will move farther inland across the Carolinas Friday night
and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some re-intensification is forecast, and Ian could be near
hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of South Carolina
on Friday. Weakening is expected Friday night and Saturday after
Ian moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km)
from the center. Daytona Beach International Airport recently
reported a sustained wind of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a gust to 70 mph
(113 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches)
based on surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Flagler/Volusia County Line to South Santee River...4-6 ft
* St. Johns River north of Julington...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* South Santee River to Little River Inlet...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* East of Little River Inlet to Cape Lookout...1-3 ft
* Englewood to Chokoloskee including Charlotte Harbor... 1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in parts of the
warning area on the east and west coasts of Florida and should
spread northward along the Georgia, South Carolina, and North
Carolina coasts today through Friday. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area in northeastern Florida,
Georgia, and South Carolina through Friday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

* Northeast Florida, coastal Georgia and Lowcountry of South
Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12 inches.
* Upstate and central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern
Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches across western
North Carolina.

Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash and urban flooding,
with major to record flooding along rivers, will continue across
central Florida. Widespread considerable flash, urban, and river
flooding is expected across portions of northeast Florida,
southeastern Georgia, and eastern South Carolina tomorrow through
the weekend. Locally considerable flash, urban, and river flooding
is possible this weekend across portions of the southern
Appalachians, where landslides will be possible as well. Limited
flooding is possible across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two remains possible across east-central
and northeast Florida through this morning. This threat will shift
into the coastal Carolinas on Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
Florida. Swells will increase along the coasts of Georgia,
South Carolina and North Carolina today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 290859
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Ian's center continues to move northeastward across central Florida,
and nearly all of the heavy rains are located to the north over
northeastern Florida. NWS WSR-88D Doppler velocities from the
Melbourne and Tampa radars have decreased significantly since last
evening, and based on that data, Ian is now a tropical storm with
maximum sustained winds of 55 kt. This intensity is also supported
by wind observations across Florida, with the highest recent
sustained wind being 52 kt at New Smyrna Beach.

Ian's current motion is northeastward, or 040/7 kt. The tail end
of a deep-layer trough is expected to detach from the main trough
axis over the southeastern United States during the next 24 to 48
hours, and Ian is forecast to move around the eastern periphery of
this feature, turning north-northeastward later today and then
north-northwestward by Friday night. In this scenario, Ian should
move off the east coast of Florida later today, and then swing
northward toward the South Carolina coast during the next 36 hours
or so. Although there is some cross-track spread in the guidance,
they all agree on this general scenario, and the NHC track forecast
lies where most of the models are packed. No significant changes
were made to the previous prediction.

Little change in intensity is forecast during the next 24 hours or
so, mainly due to strong southwesterly shear. After 24 hours,
global models are suggesting that Ian could have some favorable
interaction with the eastern U.S. trough, all while it's moving
over the warm 28-29 degree Celsius waters of the Gulf Stream. As a
result, some slight strengthening is indicated in the official
forecast by 36 hours, and Ian could be near hurricane intensity as
it's approaching the coast of South Carolina. This possibility is
accounted for by the Hurricane Watch that is effect for the area.
After moving inland, Ian is expected to weaken quickly, and global
models indicate it should dissipate or become absorbed by another
broader area of low pressure over the Carolinas by day 3.


Key Messages:

1. Coastal water levels continue to subside along the west coast of
Florida. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge today
through Friday along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia,
and South Carolina. Residents in these areas should follow any
advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to spread northward
across northeastern Florida, Georgia, and the Carolina coasts
through Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible through
Friday along the coasts of northeastern Florida, Georgia and South
Carolina where a Hurricane Watch in effect.

3. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flooding, with major to
record river flooding, will continue today across portions of
central Florida with considerable flooding in northern Florida,
southeastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina expected today
through the end of the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 28.0N 80.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
12H 29/1800Z 28.9N 80.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 30/0600Z 30.2N 80.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 30/1800Z 32.2N 80.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 01/0600Z 34.3N 80.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 01/1800Z 35.8N 81.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 290859
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...IAN NOW A TROPICAL STORM...
...BUT STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND
STORM SURGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA, GEORGIA, AND THE
CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 80.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM SE OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warnings along the east and west coasts of the
Florida peninsula have been changed to Tropical Storm Warnings.

The Tropical Storm Watch north of Surf City to Cape Lookout, North
Carolina, has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued from Suwannee River
south to the Middle of Longboat Key including Tampa Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Middle of Longboat Key southward to Flamingo including Charlotte
Harbor
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River
* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass Florida
* Boca Raton Florida to Cape Lookout North Carolina
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 80.9 West. Ian is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northeast is expected later today, followed by a turn
toward the north and north-northwest with an increase in forward
speed Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Ian is expected to move off the east-central coast of Florida
later today and then approach the coast of South Carolina on
Friday. The center will move farther inland across the Carolinas
Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slight re-intensification is forecast, and
Ian could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of
South Carolina on Friday. Weakening is expected Friday night and
Saturday after Ian moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km)
from the center. A WeatherFlow station at New Smyrna Beach
recently reported a sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a gust
to 77 mph (124 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Englewood to Chokoloskee including Charlotte Harbor...4-6 ft
* Altamaha Sound to South Santee River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River north of Julington...3-5 ft
* Middle of Long Boat to Englewood...2-4 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...2-4 ft
* South Santee River to Little River Inlet...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* East of Little River Inlet to Cape Lookout...1-3 ft
* Anclote to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in parts of the
warning area on the east and west coasts of Florida and should
spread northward along the Georgia, South Carolina, and North
Carolina coasts today through Friday. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area in northeastern Florida,
Georgia, and South Carolina through Friday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

* Northeast Florida, coastal Georgia and Lowcountry of South
Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12 inches.
* Upstate and central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern
Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches across western
North Carolina.

Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash and urban flooding,
with major to record flooding along rivers, will continue across
central Florida. Widespread considerable flash, urban, and river
flooding is expected across portions of northeast Florida,
southeastern Georgia, and eastern South Carolina tomorrow through
the weekend. Locally considerable flash, urban, and river flooding
is possible this weekend across portions of the southern
Appalachians, where landslides will be possible as well. Limited
flooding is possible across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two remains possible across east-central
and northeast Florida through this morning. This threat will shift
into the coastal Carolinas on Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 290858
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
0900 UTC THU SEP 29 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNINGS ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COASTS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE BEEN CHANGED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTH OF SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT...NORTH
CAROLINA...HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SUWANNEE RIVER
SOUTH TO MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO INCLUDING CHARLOTTE
HARBOR
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
* BOCA RATON FLORIDA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 80.9W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......360NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 60SE 360SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 80.9W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 81.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.9N 80.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...450NE 120SE 100SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.2N 80.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT...320NE 130SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.2N 80.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.3N 80.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 35.8N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 80.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 290557
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATER TODAY...
...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 81.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee has been
discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning from Chokoloskee to
Flamingo has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Bonita Beach to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet to Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River
* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to the Anclote River
* Boca Raton to Sebastian Inlet
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Surf City
* Lake Okeechobee
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Cape Lookout

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
inland near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 81.1 West. Ian is
moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a turn
toward the north-northeast and north is expected during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected
to move across central Florida this morning and emerge over the
western Atlantic later today. Ian is forecast to turn northward on
Friday and approach the northeastern Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina coasts.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected for the next day
or so, but Ian could be near hurricane strength when it moves over
the Florida East coast later today, and when it approaches the
northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). A WeatherFlow station at New Smyrna Beach,
Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and
a gust to 86 mph (139 km/h). A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h)
and a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h) were recently reported at
Melbourne, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...5-8 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...4-6 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood... 3-5 ft
* Altamaha Sound to South Santee River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River north of Julington...3-5
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...2-4 ft
* Suwannee River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa
Bay...2-4 ft
* South Santee River to Little River Inlet...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* East of Little River Inlet to Cape Lookout...1-3 ft
* Florida Keys...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Wind damage is likely near the center of Ian. Hurricane
conditions are ongoing within the Hurricane Warning area now and
will slowly spread northeastward overnight.

Hurricane conditions are expected to begin along the east coast of
Florida in the Hurricane Warning area this morning. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area today through
late Friday.

Tropical storm conditions are occuring in parts of the warning area
on the east coast of Florida and should spread northward through
the northeast Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area starting on Friday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall amounts:

* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 20 inches, with local
maxima up to 30 inches.
* Coastal Georgia and Low Country of South Carolina: 4 to 8
inches, with local maxima of 12 inches.
* Upstate and central South Carolina, North Carolina, and
southern Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches
across western North Carolina.

Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash and urban flooding,
with major to record flooding along rivers, will continue across
central Florida. Widespread considerable flash, urban, and river
flooding is expected across portions of northeast Florida,
southeastern Georgia, and eastern South Carolina today through
the weekend. Locally considerable flash, urban, and river flooding
is possible this weekend across portions of the southern
Appalachians with limited flooding possible across portions of
southern Mid-Atlantic.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two remains possible across parts of
east-central and northeast Florida through this morning. This
threat will shift into the coastal Carolinas on Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 290259
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Ian remains inland over central Florida at this time. Although the
eye is no longer evident on satellite or radar imagery, it
continues to have a well-organized cloud pattern, and surface
observations show hurricane-force winds near the system's core.
Assuming a decay rate similar to that given by the Decay-SHIPS
model, the current intensity is set at 80 kt. Given the lack of
pressure observations from surface stations, the central pressure is
estimated using a blend of standard wind/pressure relationships.

Steady weakening will occur while Ian continues to move over land.
Although not explicitly shown by the official forecast, the cyclone
could still be at hurricane strength when it reaches the central
east coast of Florida or the southeast U.S. coast. Therefore, a
hurricane warnings and watches are in effect for that area. The
environment during the next 36 hours or so does not appear to be
conducive for strengthening, with strong shear and dry air
prevailing. However some intensification is possible due to a
favorable trough interaction. The official intensity forecast is
above the model guidance at this time.

Ian continues to move north-northeastward, or about 030/7 kt.
Over the next couple of days, the system should move around a
trough near the southeastern U.S. and west of a subtropical ridge
over the southwestern Atlantic. The official track forecast is
shifted slightly east of the previous one and is on top of the new
multi-model consensus.

Since the radar presentation of the center has degraded, and the
center is no longer easily trackable, hourly Tropical Cyclone
Updates will no longer be issued.


Key Messages:

1. Severe and life-threatening storm surge inundation of 8 to 10
feet above ground level along with destructive waves is ongoing
along the southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita
Beach, including Charlotte Harbor.

2. Hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will continue to
spread across central Florida near the core of Ian through early
Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected along the east-central
Florida coast overnight through early Thursday.

3. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flooding, with major to
record river flooding, will continue across portions of central
Florida tonight with considerable flooding in northern Florida,
southeastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina expected tomorrow
through the end of the week.

4. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge on Thursday
and Friday along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina, with hurricane conditions possible. Residents in these
areas should follow any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 27.5N 81.4W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
12H 29/1200Z 28.4N 80.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/0000Z 29.6N 80.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 30/1200Z 31.3N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 33.1N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 01/1200Z 35.0N 81.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 02/0000Z 37.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 290259
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...IAN CONTINUING TO BATTER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH WINDS, STORM
SURGE, AND FLOODING...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 81.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SW OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch for Lake Okeechobee is discontinued.
The Tropical Storm Warning south of Boca Raton is discontinued.
Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued from Flamingo eastward to
the Card Sound Bridge, including Florida Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet to Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River
* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to the Anclote River
* Boca Raton to Sebastian Inlet
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Surf City
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Cape Lookout

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 81.4 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the
northeast and north is expected during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move across
central Florida overnight and Thursday morning and emerge over the
western Atlantic by late Thursday. Ian is forecast to turn
northward on Friday and approach the northeastern Florida, Georgia
and South Carolina coasts.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected for the next day
or so, but Ian could be near hurricane strength when it moves over
the Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it approaches the
northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...8-10 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...5-8 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...3-5 ft
* Altamaha Sound to South Santee River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River north of Julington...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* Suwannee River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa
Bay...2-4 ft
* South Santee River to Little River Inlet...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* East of Little River Inlet to Cape Lookout...1-3 ft
* Florida Keys...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Severe and extensive wind damage is likely near the core of
Ian. Hurricane conditions are ongoing within the Hurricane Warning
area now and will slowly spread northeastward overnight.

Hurricane conditions are expected to begin along the east coast of
Florida in the Hurricane Warning area starting early Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on
Thursday through late Friday.

Tropical storm conditions are occuring in parts of the warning area
on the east coast of Florida and should spread northward through
the northeast Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts tonight
and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area starting on Friday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall amounts:

* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 20 inches, with local
maxima up to 30 inches.
* Coastal Georgia and Low Country of South Carolina: 4 to 8
inches, with local maxima of 12 inches.
* Upstate and central South Carolina, North Carolina, and
southern Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches
across western North Carolina.

Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash and urban flooding,
with major to record flooding along rivers, will continue across
central Florida. Widespread considerable flash, urban, and river
flooding is expected across portions of northeast Florida,
southeastern Georgia, and eastern South Carolina tomorrow through
the weekend. Locally considerable flash, urban, and river flooding
is possible this weekend across portions of the southern
Appalachians with limited flooding possible across portions of
southern Mid-Atlantic.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two remains possible across parts of
east-central and northeast Florida through Thursday morning. This
threat will shift into the coastal Carolinas on Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 290258
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE IS DISCONTINUED.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF BOCA RATON IS DISCONTINUED.
STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM FLAMINGO EASTWARD TO
THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER
* BOCA RATON TO SEBASTIAN INLET
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO SURF CITY
* FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 81.4W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 0SE 300SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 81.4W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 81.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.4N 80.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.6N 80.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...330NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.3N 80.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.1N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...210NE 120SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.0N 81.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.0N 81.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 81.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 290156
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1000 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...10 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...IAN CONTINUING TO BATTER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC
STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING...

Tropical storm conditions are occurring over a wide swath of the
Florida peninsula. An automated station at the Airglades Airport,
located west of Lake Okeechobee recently reported sustained winds of
42 mph (68 km/h) with a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h). A WeatherFlow
station located at Skyway Beach in St. Petersburg, Florida recently
measured sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust to 51 mph
(82 km/h). A WeatherFlow station located at Melbourne Beach Barrier
Island Sanctuary recently observed sustained winds of 42 mph (68
km/h) with a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 81.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NE OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM S OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 290056
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
900 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...9 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...IAN CONTINUING TO BATTER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC
STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING...

A University of Florida Coastal Monitoring Program wind tower
located near Punta Gorda recently reported sustained winds of 55
mph (89 km/h) with a wind gust of 78 mph (126 km/h).

The automated station at the Punta Gorda Airport measured a gust of
109 mph (175 km/h) just before 8 PM EDT.


SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 81.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 282352
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...IAN CONTINUING TO BATTER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC
STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 81.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet to Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River
* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to the Anclote River
* Flamingo to Sebastian Inlet
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Surf City
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet
* Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Cape Lookout

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ian was located near
latitude 27.2 North, longitude 81.7 West. Ian is moving toward the
north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). On the forecast track, the
center of Ian is expected to move across central Florida tonight and
Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late
Thursday. Ian is forecast to turn northward on Friday and approach
the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further weakening is expected
for the next day or so, but Ian could be near hurricane strength
when it moves over the Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it
approaches the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina
coasts on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). A University of Florida Coastal Monitoring Program wind
tower near Punta Gorda recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph
(87 km/h) with a gust to 91 mph (146 km/h). A private weather
station in Joshua recently measured a wind gust to 89 mph (143
km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...12-18 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood...6-10 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...8-12 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...5-8 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6
ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Altamaha Sound to South Santee River...3-5 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River north of Julington...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* South Santee River to Little River Inlet...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* East of Little River Inlet to Cape Lookout...1-3 ft
* Dry Tortugas and Florida Keys...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely near the core of Ian.
Hurricane conditions are ongoing within the Hurricane Warning area
now and will slowly spread northeastward through the night.

Hurricane conditions are expected to begin along the east coast of
Florida in the Hurricane Warning area starting early Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on
Thursday through late Friday.

Tropical storm conditions are occuring in parts of the warning area
on the east coast of Florida and should spread northward through
the northeast Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts tonight
and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area starting on Friday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima
up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 20 inches, with local
maxima up to 30 inches.
* Coastal Georgia and Lowcountry of South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches,
with local maxima of 12 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 3 to 6 inches, with
local maxima of 8 inches across western North Carolina

Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash and urban flooding,
with major to record flooding along rivers, is expected to continue
across central Florida. Widespread considerable flash, urban, and
river flooding is expected across portions of northeast Florida,
southeastern Georgia, and eastern South Carolina later this week
through the weekend. Locally considerable flash flooding, urban,
and river flooding is possible this weekend across portions of the
southern Appalachians with limited flooding possible across portions
of southern Mid-Atlantic.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening into tonight
across east central Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci/D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 282257
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
700 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...7 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...IAN BATTERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC STORM
SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING...

A NOAA National Ocean Service station near Ft. Myers recently
reported a water level greater than 7 ft (2.1 m) Mean Higher High
Water (MHHW).

A University of Florida Coastal Monitoring Program wind tower
recently reported sustained winds of 64 mph (103 km/h) with a wind
gust of 104 mph (167 km/h).

A private weather station near Port Charlotte reported a sustained
wind of 115 mph (185 km/h) with a wind gust of 132 mph (212 km/h)
as Ian made landfall on the mainland Florida peninsula a little
more than 2 hours ago.


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 81.8W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 282157
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
600 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...6 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...IAN BATTERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC STORM
SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING...

A University of Florida Coastal Monitoring Program wind tower
recently reported a minimum pressure of 953 mb (28.14 inches) near
the center of Ian's eye. A NOAA C-MAN Station at Venice Beach
measured sustained winds of 77 mph (124 km/h) with a gust of 104 mph
(167 km/h) in the northern eyewall within the last hour.

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 81.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ENE OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 282058
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft provided the last
fix on Ian just before the hurricane made landfall at Cayo Costa,
Florida, with the landfall time near at 305 pm EDT. The
minimum pressure had risen to about 940 mb at landfall, suggesting
that the winds had come down slightly, and the landfall intensity
was estimated near 130 kt. While there hasn't been much in situ
data recently, satellite images show that the eye has become more
cloud filled, and Tampa Doppler radar data is indicating a gradual
reduction in winds. The initial intensity is set to 120 kt on this
advisory.

Further weakening is forecast while Ian moves over central Florida
during the next day and emerges into the western Atlantic later on
Thursday. While there is a lot of vertical wind shear in the
environment there, a favorable trough interaction from a trough in
the southern United States is expected to counteract the shear,
resulting in Ian staying a strong tropical storm through landfall
on the southeast U.S. coast. Little change was made to the
intensity forecast, which is near or somewhat above the consensus
guidance.

The hurricane is moving to the north-northeast at about 8 kt. The
aforementioned trough is likely to cause Ian to turn northward over
the western Atlantic and to the north-northwest by the weekend.
Model guidance is just a bit faster to the north-northeast than the
last cycle, and the new forecast is nudged in that direction. The
trough will probably cause Ian to transition to an extratropical
cyclone in a few days over the southeastern United States, and this
new forecast reflects this likelihood.


Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 18 feet above ground
level along with destructive waves is ongoing along the southwest
Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach, including
Charlotte Harbor.

2. Catastrophic wind damage is occurring along the southwestern
coast of Florida in areas near the eyewall of Ian. Hurricane-force
winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland to central
Florida near the core of Ian through early Thursday. Hurricane
conditions are expected along the east-central Florida coast
overnight through early Thursday.

3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week
and this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic
flooding, with major to record river flooding, are expected to
continue across portions of central Florida with considerable
flooding in northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and eastern South
Carolina.

4. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge on Thursday
and Friday along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina, with hurricane conditions possible. Residents in these
areas should follow any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 26.9N 82.0W 120 KT 140 MPH...INLAND
12H 29/0600Z 27.8N 81.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/1800Z 28.8N 81.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0600Z 30.0N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 30/1800Z 31.9N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 01/0600Z 34.0N 81.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/1800Z 36.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 282057
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SURF
CITY...NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO
CAPE LOOKOUT...NORTH CAROLINA.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE LOWER KEYS
AND THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER KEYS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FOR FLORIDA BAY
HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER
* FLAMINGO TO SEBASTIAN INLET
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO SURF CITY
* FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 82.0W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 82.0W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 82.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.8N 81.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...250NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.8N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...360NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.0N 80.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.
34 KT...320NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.9N 80.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...210NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.0N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 36.0N 81.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 82.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 282057
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...IAN BATTERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC STORM
SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 82.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued north of South Santee River
South Carolina to Little River Inlet.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Surf
City, North Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Surf City to
Cape Lookout, North Carolina.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued for the Lower Keys
and the Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued for the Middle and
Upper Keys.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys and for Florida Bay
have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet to Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River
* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to the Anclote River
* Flamingo to Sebastian Inlet
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Surf City
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet
* Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Cape Lookout

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 82.0 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). On the forecast track,
the center of Ian is expected to move across central Florida
tonight and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by
late Thursday. Ian is forecast to turn northward on Friday and
approach the northeastern Florida coast, Georgia and South Carolina
coasts late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 140 mph (220 km/h)
with higher gusts. Ian is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further weakening is
expected for the next day or so, but Ian could be near hurricane
strength when it moves over the Florida East coast tomorrow, and
when it approaches the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South
Carolina coasts late Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). A WeatherFlow station in Grove City recently reported
sustained winds of 95 mph (153 km/h) and a wind gust of 128 mph
(208 km/h). A University of Florida Coastal Monitoring
Program wind tower recently reported sustained winds of 89 mph
(143 km/h) with a gust to 114 mph (183 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...12-18 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood...6-10 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...8-12 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...5-8 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6
ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Altamaha Sound to South Santee River...3-5 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River north of Julington...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* South Santee River to Little River Inlet...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* East of Little River Inlet to Cape Lookout...1-3 ft
* Dry Tortugas and Florida Keys...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely near the core of Ian.
Hurricane conditions are ongoing within the Hurricane Warning area
now and will slowly spread northeastward through the day.

Hurricane conditions are expected to begin along the east coast of
Florida in the Hurricane Warning area starting early Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on
Thursday through late Friday.

Tropical storm conditions are occuring in parts of the warning area
on the east coast of Florida and should spread northward through
the northeast Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts tonight
and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area starting on Friday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima
up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 20 inches, with local
maxima up to 30 inches.
* Coastal Georgia and Lowcountry of South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches,
with local maxima of 12 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 3 to 6 inches, with
local maxima of 8 inches across western North Carolina

Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash and urban flooding,
with major to record flooding along rivers, is expected to continue
across central Florida. Widespread considerable flash, urban, and
river flooding is expected across portions of northeast Florida,
southeastern Georgia, and eastern South Carolina later this week
through the weekend. Locally considerable flash flooding, urban,
and river flooding is possible this weekend across portions of the
southern Appalachians with limited flooding possible across portions
of southern Mid-Atlantic.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening into tonight
across east central Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 282035
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
435 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...IAN MAKES MAINLAND FLORIDA LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF
PUNTA GORDA NEAR PIRATE HARBOR...

NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ian has made
landfall on the mainland southwest Florida peninsula just south of
Punta Gorda near Pirate Harbor. Maximum sustained winds at landfall
were estimated to be 145 mph (235 km/h).

A WeatherSTEM station at the Cape Coral Fire Department recently
reported a wind gust of 110 mph (177 km/h). A WeatherFlow station in
Grove City on the western side of Charlotte Harbor reported a
sustained wind of 85 mph (137 km/h) with a gust to 128 mph (206
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 435 PM EDT...2035 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 82.0W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM WSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF FT MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...235 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven/Papin/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 281957
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
400 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...4 PM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IAN CONTINUES TO MOVE
INLAND IN THE CAPE CORAL-PUNTA GORDA AREA...

The Punta Gorda airport recently reported a wind gust of 124 mph
(200 km/h), and a station at the Cape Coral Fire Department
recently reported a wind gust of 110 mph (177 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 82.1W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM WSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF FT MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...235 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 281910
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
310 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IAN MAKES LANDFALL IN
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ian made
landfall along the southwestern coast of Florida near Cayo Costa
around 305 PM EDT (1905 UTC). Data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Ian's maximum sustained winds
were estimated to be near 150 mph (240 km/h). The latest minimum
central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is 940 mb
(27.75 inches).


SUMMARY OF 310 PM EDT...1910 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 82.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WNW OF FT MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.75 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake/Papin/Beven/Stevenson

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 281901
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
300 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...IAN ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ONGOING...

A Weatherflow station at Tarpin point in Cape Coral reported
sustained winds of 77 mph (124 km/h) with a gust up to 118 mph (190
km/h). A River, Estuary, and Coastal Network station at Redfish
Pass, Florida, recently reported a pressure of 942 mb (27.81
inches).


SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 82.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF FT MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake/Beven/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 281758
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...IAN CAUSING CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 82.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning and the Storm Surge Warning for the Dry
Tortugas has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet to Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River
* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to the Anclote River
* All of the Florida Keys
* Flamingo to Sebastian Inlet
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Little River Inlet
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big
Pine Key
* Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ian was located by an
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Tampa radar data
near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 82.3 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion with a
reduction in forward speed is forecast today, followed by a turn
toward the northeast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center
of Ian is expected to move onshore soon, move over central Florida
tonight and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by
late Thursday. Ian is forecast to turn northward on Friday and
approach the northeastern Florida coast in addition to the Georgia
and South Carolina coasts late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Ian is forecast to make landfall on the west
coast of Florida as a catastrophic hurricane soon. Weakening is
expected after landfall, but Ian could be near hurricane strength
when it moves over the Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it
approaches the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina
coasts late Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). A River, Estuary, and Coastal Network station at
Redfish Pass, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 94 mph
(151 km/h) and a wind gust of 126 mph (203 km/h), A Weatherflow
station at Tarpon Point recently reported sustained winds of 83 mph
(134 km/h) with a gust to 101 mph (163 km/h).

The minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches) based on Air
Force Reserve dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...12-18 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood...6-10 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...8-12 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...5-8 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6
ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Altamaha Sound to South Santee River ...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River north of Julington...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* North of South Santee River to Surf City NC...1-3 ft
* Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ian
moves onshore. Hurricane conditions are ongoing within the
Hurricane Warning area now and will slowly spread northeastward
through the day.

Hurricane conditions are expected to begin along the east coast of
Florida in the Hurricane Warning area starting early Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on
Thursday through late Friday.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the
Florida Keys, and will continue for a few more hours. Tropical
storm conditions are occuring in parts of the warning area on the
east coast and should spread northward through the Georgia
and South Carolina coasts tonight and Thursday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima
up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with local
maxima up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with
local maxima of 12 inches.

Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash, urban, and river
flooding is expected across central Florida. Widespread
considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across
portions of southern Florida through Wednesday, and northeast
Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina later this
week through the weekend. Limited flash, urban, and river flooding
is possible over portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic
U.S. later this week through the weekend.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight, especially
across east central Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 281659
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
100 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...1 PM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA...

A River, Estuary, and Coastal Network station at Redfish Pass,
Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 75 mph (121 km/h) and
a wind gust of 100 mph (161 km/h), while a Weatherflow station near
Sanibel Island, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 77
mph (124 km/h) and a wind gust of 107 mph (172 km/h). The Earth
Networks Station at the Naples Grande Beach Resort recently
reported a wind gust of 112 mph (180 km/h.)

The Redfish Pass station has also reported a pressure of 969 mb
(28.61 inches).

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 82.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...80 KM WSW OF FT MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 281615

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 28.09.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 123.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2022 0 13.6N 123.9W 1008 19
0000UTC 29.09.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.1N 101.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP972022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2022 0 13.1N 101.0W 1010 20
0000UTC 29.09.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 34.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2022 0 15.4N 34.3W 1010 23
0000UTC 29.09.2022 12 16.9N 35.2W 1011 25
1200UTC 29.09.2022 24 18.6N 36.7W 1013 22
0000UTC 30.09.2022 36 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.0N 82.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2022 0 26.0N 82.7W 949 92
0000UTC 29.09.2022 12 27.4N 81.4W 978 47
1200UTC 29.09.2022 24 28.5N 80.6W 987 51
0000UTC 30.09.2022 36 29.7N 79.5W 983 59
1200UTC 30.09.2022 48 31.5N 79.0W 976 62
0000UTC 01.10.2022 60 34.6N 79.0W 985 40
1200UTC 01.10.2022 72 36.3N 79.5W 1002 28
0000UTC 02.10.2022 84 37.5N 79.0W 1007 27
1200UTC 02.10.2022 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 11.9N 41.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2022 120 11.9N 41.0W 1010 28
0000UTC 04.10.2022 132 12.9N 42.9W 1009 34
1200UTC 04.10.2022 144 13.1N 45.0W 1007 40


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 281615

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 281615

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.09.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 123.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.09.2022 13.6N 123.9W WEAK
00UTC 29.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.1N 101.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP972022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.09.2022 13.1N 101.0W WEAK
00UTC 29.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 34.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.09.2022 15.4N 34.3W WEAK
00UTC 29.09.2022 16.9N 35.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2022 18.6N 36.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.0N 82.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.09.2022 26.0N 82.7W INTENSE
00UTC 29.09.2022 27.4N 81.4W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 29.09.2022 28.5N 80.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.09.2022 29.7N 79.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.09.2022 31.5N 79.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2022 34.6N 79.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2022 36.3N 79.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.10.2022 37.5N 79.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 11.9N 41.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.10.2022 11.9N 41.0W WEAK
00UTC 04.10.2022 12.9N 42.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2022 13.1N 45.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 281615

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 281557
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1200 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...12 PM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...EYEWALL OF IAN MOVING ONSHORE AT SANIBEL AND CAPTIVA ISLANDS...

The Government of Cuba has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings
for Cuba.

A Weatherflow station near Sanibel Island, Florida recently
reported sustained winds of 71 mph (114 km/h) and a wind gust of
98 mph (158 km/h), and a River, Estuary, and Coastal Network
station at Redfish Pass recently reported sustained winds of 67 mph
(108 km/h) and a wind gust of 84 mph (135 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 82.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 281502
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24...RETRANSMITTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
1500 UTC WED SEP 28 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE ST.
MARY'S RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH
CAROLINA.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SEBASTIAN INLET...FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE...FLORIDA.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY
LINE TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO LITTLE
RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS
* SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM BIG PINE KEY WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* INDIAN PASS TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER
* ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
* FLAMINGO TO SEBASTIAN INLET
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO EAST OF BIG
PINE KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 82.5W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 120SE 300SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 82.5W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 82.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.3N 82.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.3N 81.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...310NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.3N 80.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.
34 KT...320NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 30.8N 80.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...250NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 32.9N 80.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 34.7N 81.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 36.0N 81.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 82.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 281458
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data was absolutely
critical this morning in diagnosing the rapid intensification of
Ian, despite both planes undergoing multiple eyewall penetrations
experiencing severe turbulence. That data supported an intensity of
about 135 kt a few hours ago. Since that time, high-resolution
Tampa Doppler radar data has been sampling the eyewall near 10,000
ft with winds up to 155 kt, indicating that Ian is on the threshold
of category 5 status. The maximum winds are set to 135 kt on this
advisory.

Ian is expected to make landfall in southwestern Florida in the next
few hours as a catastrophic hurricane. No changes were made to the
track forecast near Florida, except to be faster to come into line
with the latest consensus aids. One important change is that Ian
is likely to remain more intact as it crosses the Florida peninsula
(due to both its stronger initial wind speed and its faster forecast
forward speed), and this now increases the threat of hurricane-force
winds on the east coast of Florida. This necessitates the issuance
of a Hurricane Warning on the east coast of central Florida. While
significant re-strengthening of Ian might not occur over the
Atlantic Ocean, model guidance has been catching up with a
trough interaction from a shortwave over the southern United
States, and are stronger than yesterday on Ian's intensity with
more baroclinic forcing. Thus, a Hurricane Watch has been issued
from northeastern Florida northward up the coast through most of
coastal South Carolina. The new intensity forecast is raised from
the previous one, near the latest statistical-dynamical guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 18 feet above ground
level along with destructive waves are expected somewhere along the
southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach,
including Charlotte Harbor. Residents in these areas should urgently
follow any evacuation orders in effect.

2. Catastrophic wind damage is beginning along the southwestern
coast of Florida today near the landfall location. Hurricane-force
winds are expected to extend well inland along near the core of Ian.
Preparations to protect life and property should be urgently rushed
to completion.

3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week
and this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic
flooding is expected across portions of central Florida with
considerable flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida,
southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Widespread,
prolonged major and record river flooding is expected across
central Florida.

4. Hurricane conditions are expected along the east-central Florida
coast overnight, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued.
Hurricane conditions are possible from northeastern Florida to
portions of South Carolina on Thursday and Friday, and a Hurricane
Watch has been issued for that area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 26.3N 82.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 27.3N 82.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/1200Z 28.3N 81.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0000Z 29.3N 80.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 30/1200Z 30.8N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 01/0000Z 32.9N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/1200Z 34.7N 81.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1200Z 36.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 281456
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EYEWALL OF IAN MOVING ONSHORE...
...IAN WILL CAUSE CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 82.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WNW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the mouth of the St.
Mary's River to the mouth of the South Santee River, South Carolina.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Sebastian Inlet, Florida
northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Flagler/Volusia County
Line to the South Santee River.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Little
River Inlet, South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
* Sebastian Inlet to Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River
* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Indian Pass to the Anclote River
* All of the Florida Keys
* Flamingo to Sebastian Inlet
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Little River Inlet
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big
Pine Key
* Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 82.5 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion with a
reduction in forward speed is forecast today, followed by a turn
toward the northeast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center
of Ian is expected to move onshore within the hurricane warning area
in a few hours, move over central Florida tonight and Thursday
morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday. Ian
is forecast to turn northward on Friday and approach the
northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts late
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Ian is forecast to make landfall on the west
coast of Florida as a catastrophic hurricane. Weakening is expected
after landfall, but Ian could be near hurricane strength when it
moves over the Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it approaches
the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts late
Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). A Weatherflow station on Sanibel Island recently reported
sustained winds of 58 mph (93 km/h) with a gust to 75 mph
(121 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...12-18 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood...6-10 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...8-12 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...5-8 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6
ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key, including the
Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to South Santee River including St.
Johns River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* North of South Santee River to Surf City NC...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ian
moves onshore. Hurricane conditions will begin along the west
coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area shortly, with
tropical storm conditions ongoing.

Hurricane conditions are expected to begin along the east coast of
Florida in the Hurricane Warning area starting overnight. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Thursday
through late Friday.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the
Florida Keys, and will continue this morning. Tropical storm
conditions are occuring in parts of the warning area on the east
coast currently, and should spread up northward through the Georgia
and South Carolina coasts tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba for the next
few hours.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima
up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with local
maxima up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with
local maxima of 12 inches.

Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash, urban, and river
flooding is expected across central Florida. Widespread
considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across
portions of southern Florida through Wednesday, and northeast
Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina later this
week through the weekend. Limited flash, urban, and river flooding
is possible over portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic
U.S. later this week through the weekend.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight, especially
across east central Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 281358
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1000 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...10 AM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NEARING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that hurricane-force winds are approaching the coast of Florida near
Sanibel Island. The Southwest Regional Airport in Fort Myers
recently reported a wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 82.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 281258
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
900 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...9 AM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...

Peak Storm Surge Inundation has been increased for the following
locations:

* From Englewood to Bonita Beach...12-18 ft
* Charlotte Harbor...12-18 ft
* From Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...8-12 ft
* From Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...5-8 ft



SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 82.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 281159
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO CAUSE CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND
FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA STARTING LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 82.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM W OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary's River
* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Indian Pass to the Anclote River
* All of the Florida Keys
* Flamingo to South Santee River
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big
Pine Key
* Florida Bay
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ian was located by
Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data plus Key West radar near
latitude 26.0 North, longitude 82.7 West. Ian is moving toward the
north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion with a
reduction in forward speed is forecast today, followed by a turn
toward the north on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Ian is expected to move onshore within the hurricane warning area
later this morning or early afternoon. The center of Ian is
forecast to move over central Florida tonight and Thursday morning
and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Ian is forecast to make landfall on the west
coast of Florida as a catastrophic hurricane. Weakening is expected
after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches) based on Air
Force Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...12-16 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood... 6-10 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...7-11 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6
ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-7 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key, including the
Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Savannah River including St. Johns
River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Indian Pass to Suwanee River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ian
moves onshore. Hurricane conditions will begin along the west
coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area later this
morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning before daybreak.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the
Florida Keys, and will continue this morning. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area on the east coast of
Florida beginning today, and should spread up the Georgia and
South Carolina coasts tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba for the
next few hours.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima
up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with local
maxima up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with
local maxima of 12 inches.

Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash, urban, and river
flooding is expected across central Florida. Widespread
considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across
portions of southern Florida through Wednesday, and northeast
Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina later this
week through the weekend. Limited flash, urban, and river flooding
is possible over portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic
later this week through the weekend.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight across central
and south Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 281057
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Special Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
700 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

This special advisory is being issued to update Ian's current and
forecast intensity. Recent NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter flight-level winds are as high as 160 kt, with SFMR data
around 135 kt, with a central pressure down to 937 mb. This
supports a current intensity of 135 kt.

The forecast intensity is raised to 135 kt at landfall, and we are
now forecasting a catastrophic storm surge of 12 to 16 ft from
Englewood to Bonita Beach, Florida. No other significant changes
were made to the forecast.

Previous discussion --

Ian completed an eyewall replacement cycle during the overnight
hours, and very recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the hurricane has reached category 4
intensity. The plane reported that the central pressure has fallen
to 942 mb, down about 10 mb from around midnight. The plane
measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 141 kt, and an SFMR
wind of 109 kt. A blend of the 700-mb reduced wind and the SFMR
yields an initial intensity of 120 kt. Although there is some
moderate shear over the hurricane, this is not likely to affect Ian
very much due to its large size. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible before the center reaches the coast later today, but Ian is
expected to reach the coast as an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane. Weakening is expected while Ian moves over the Florida
peninsula.

Ian has jogged a little to the left this morning, but the
longer-term motion remains north-northeastward or 015 degrees
at 9 kt. The hurricane should continue moving north-northeastward
through Thursday between the western side of a subtropical ridge
and a broad trough over the eastern United States. This motion is
expected to bring the center of Ian onshore along the west coast of
Florida later today, and over central Florida tonight and Thursday.
A shortwave trough that is forecast to move southward toward the
northwestern Gulf in about 24 to 36 hours is expected to sharpen
the trough over the eastern U.S. causing Ian to turn northward
along coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia Thursday night and
Friday. The model envelope did not change much this cycle, and very
little cross-track adjustments were needed to the official
forecast. The GFS and ECWMF are noticeably slower than the
remainder of the dynamical models, and the updated NHC track
forecast is a little slower than the previous advisory and slightly
slower than the TVCA consensus aid out of respect for those models.


Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 16 feet above ground
level along with destructive waves are expected somewhere along the
southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach,
including Charlotte Harbor. Residents in these areas should urgently
follow any evacuation orders in effect.

2. Catastrophic wind damage is expected along the southwestern
coast of Florida beginning in the next few hours where the core of
Ian makes landfall. Preparations to protect life and property
should be urgently rushed to completion.

3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week
and this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic
flooding is expected across portions of central Florida with
considerable flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida,
southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Widespread,
prolonged major and record river flooding expected across central
Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1100Z 25.9N 82.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 26.7N 82.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 27.7N 81.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1800Z 28.7N 81.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0600Z 29.8N 80.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 30/1800Z 31.6N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 33.6N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/0600Z 36.1N 82.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 281056
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Special Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
700 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING IAN FORECAST TO CAUSE CATASTROPHIC
STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 82.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary's River
* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Indian Pass to the Anclote River
* All of the Florida Keys
* Flamingo to South Santee River
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big
Pine Key
* Florida Bay
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EDT (1100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ian was located by
Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data near latitude 25.9 North,
longitude 82.8 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northeast near
9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion with a reduction in forward
speed is forecast today, followed by a turn toward the north on
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to
approach the west coast of Florida within the hurricane warning
area this morning, and move onshore later today. The center of Ian
is forecast to move over central Florida tonight and Thursday
morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h)
with higher gusts. Ian is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Ian is forecast to make
landfall on the west coast of Florida as a catastrophic category 4
hurricane. Weakening is expected after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches) based on Air
Force Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...12-16 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood... 6-10 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...7-11 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6
ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-7 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key, including the
Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Savannah River including St. Johns
River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Indian Pass to Suwanee River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ian
moves onshore. Hurricane conditions will begin along the west
coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area later this
morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning before daybreak.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the
Florida Keys, and will continue this morning. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area on the east coast of
Florida beginning today, and should spread up the Georgia and
South Carolina coasts tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba for the
next few hours.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima
up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with local
maxima up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with
local maxima of 12 inches.

Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash, urban, and river
flooding is expected across central Florida. Widespread
considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across
portions of southern Florida through Wednesday, and northeast
Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina later this
week through the weekend. Limited flash, urban, and river flooding
is possible over portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic
later this week through the weekend.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight across central
and south Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
west coast of Florida. These swells will spread westward along
portions of the north-central Gulf coast during the next day or so.
Swells will increase along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and
South Carolina tonight and Thursday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 281056
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IAN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
1100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM BIG PINE KEY WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* INDIAN PASS TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER
* ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
* FLAMINGO TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO EAST OF BIG
PINE KEY
* FLORIDA BAY
* MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 82.8W AT 28/1100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 270SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 82.8W AT 28/1100Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 82.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.7N 82.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.7N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.7N 81.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...320NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 29.8N 80.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...280NE 120SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.6N 80.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.6N 81.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 36.1N 82.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 82.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 281036
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
635 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...IAN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
COAST...

Recent data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250
km/h). A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM EDT (1100 UTC) to
reflect this change and update the forecast.


SUMMARY OF 635 AM EDT...1035 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 82.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.73 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 280955
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
600 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...6 AM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
COAST...

A University of South Florida COMPS buoy located just to the
north-northwest of Ian's eye recently measured a sustained wind of
66 mph (106 km/h) and a wind gust to 94 mph (151 km/h).

A WeatherFlow station near Sanibel Island recently measured a
sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a wind gust to 55 mph (89
km/h).


SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 82.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...100 KM WSW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 280904
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Ian completed an eyewall replacement cycle during the overnight
hours, and very recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the hurricane has reached category 4
intensity. The plane reported that the central pressure has fallen
to 942 mb, down about 10 mb from around midnight. The plane
measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 141 kt, and an SFMR
wind of 109 kt. A blend of the 700-mb reduced wind and the SFMR
yields an initial intensity of 120 kt. Although there is some
moderate shear over the hurricane, this is not likely to affect Ian
very much due to its large size. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible before the center reaches the coast later today, but Ian is
expected to reach the coast as an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane. Weakening is expected while Ian moves over the Florida
peninsula.

Ian has jogged a little to the left this morning, but the
longer-term motion remains north-northeastward or 015 degrees
at 9 kt. The hurricane should continue moving north-northeastward
through Thursday between the western side of a subtropical ridge
and a broad trough over the eastern United States. This motion is
expected to bring the center of Ian onshore along the west coast of
Florida later today, and over central Florida tonight and Thursday.
A shortwave trough that is forecast to move southward toward the
northwestern Gulf in about 24 to 36 hours is expected to sharpen
the trough over the eastern U.S. causing Ian to turn northward
along coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia Thursday night and
Friday. The model envelope did not change much this cycle, and very
little cross-track adjustments were needed to the official
forecast. The GFS and ECWMF are noticeably slower than the
remainder of the dynamical models, and the updated NHC track
forecast is a little slower than the previous advisory and slightly
slower than the TVCA consensus aid out of respect for those models.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected along the Florida west
coast and the Lower Florida Keys where a storm surge warning is
in effect, with the highest risk from Naples to the Sarasota region.
Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local
officials and follow any evacuation orders for your area.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning
area in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday
morning with tropical storm conditions expected overnight.
Catastrophic wind damage is expected near the core of Ian when it
moves onshore.

3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast later this week and
this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flooding is
expected across portions of central Florida with considerable
flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida, southeastern Georgia
and coastal South Carolina. Widespread, prolonged major and record
river flooding expected across central Florida.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 25.6N 82.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 26.7N 82.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 27.7N 81.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1800Z 28.7N 81.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0600Z 29.8N 80.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 30/1800Z 31.6N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 33.6N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/0600Z 36.1N 82.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 280855
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
0900 UTC WED SEP 28 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM BIG PINE KEY WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* INDIAN PASS TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER
* ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
* FLAMINGO TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO EAST OF BIG
PINE KEY
* FLORIDA BAY
* MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 82.9W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 270SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 82.9W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 82.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.7N 82.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.7N 81.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.7N 81.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...320NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 29.8N 80.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...280NE 120SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.6N 80.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.6N 81.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 36.1N 82.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 82.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 280856
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IAN HAS STRENGTHENED INTO AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC
WINDS AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 82.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM WSW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary's River
* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Indian Pass to the Anclote River
* All of the Florida Keys
* Flamingo to South Santee River
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big
Pine Key
* Florida Bay
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 82.9 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion with
a reduction in forward speed is forecast today, followed by a turn
toward the north on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Ian is expected to approach the west coast of Florida within the
hurricane warning area this morning, and move onshore later today.
The center of Ian is forecast to move over central Florida tonight
and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late
Thursday.

Very recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140
mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Ian is a category 4 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in
intensity are possible before Ian reaches the coast of Florida.
Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida as an
extremely dangerous major hurricane. Weakening is expected after
landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte
Harbor...8-12 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...6-10 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including
Tampa Bay...4-6 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-7 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key, including the
Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Savannah River including St. Johns
River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Indian Pass to Suwanee River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ian
moves onshore. Hurricane conditions will begin along the west
coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area later this
morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning before daybreak.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the
Florida Keys, and will continue this morning. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area on the east coast of
Florida beginning today, and should spread up the Georgia and
South Carolina coasts tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba for the
next few hours.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:

* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima
up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with local
maxima up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with
local maxima of 12 inches.

Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash, urban, and river
flooding is expected across central Florida. Widespread
considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across
portions of southern Florida through Wednesday, and northeast
Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina later this
week through the weekend. Limited flash, urban, and river flooding
is possible over portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic
later this week through the weekend.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight across central
and south Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula, the
Florida Keys, and the Gulf coast of Florida. These swells will
spread westward along portions of the north-central Gulf
coast during the next day or so. Swells will increase along the
east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and
Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 280758
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
400 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...4 AM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...RAINBANDS FROM IAN SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...

A University of South Florida COMPS buoy located just to the
north-northwest of Ian's eye recently measured a sustained wind of
60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind gust to 83 mph (133 km/h).

A WeatherFlow station near Sanibel Island recently measured a
sustained wind of 37 mph (59 km/h) and a wind gust to 47 mph (76
km/h).


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 82.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 280659
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
300 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...3 AM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS REACHING THE COASTS OF SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

Near the southeastern coast of Florida, a WeatherFlow station at
Biscayne Bay Light recently measured a sustained wind of 39 mph (63
km/h) and a wind gust to 60 mph (96 km/h).

On the southwestern coast of Florida, a WeatherFlow station near
Sanibel Island recently measured a sustained wind of 35 mph (56
km/h) and a wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 82.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 280550
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...IAN MOVING CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC
WINDS AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 83.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary's River
* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Indian Pass to the Anclote River
* All of the Florida Keys
* Flamingo to South Santee River
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big
Pine Key
* Florida Bay
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 83.0 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion with
a reduction in forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday,
followed by a turn toward the north on Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Ian is expected to approach the west coast of
Florida within the hurricane warning area this morning, and move
onshore later today. The center of Ian is forecast to move over
central Florida Wednesday night and Thursday morning and emerge over
the western Atlantic by late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast until the
hurricane makes landfall, and Ian is forecast to approach the
west coast of Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.14 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte
Harbor...8-12 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...6-10 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa
Bay...4-6 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-7 ft
* Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key, including the Dry
Tortugas...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Mouth of the St. Mary's River,
including St. Johns River...3-5 ft
* Altamaha Sound to Savannah River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Indian Pass to Suwanee River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin along the west
coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area later this
morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning before daybreak.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the
Florida Keys, and will continue this morning. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area on the east coast of
Florida beginning today, and should spread up the Georgia and
South Carolina coasts tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba for the
next few hours.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm
total rainfall:

* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local
maxima up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with local
maxima up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches,
with local maxima of 12 inches.

Widespread catastrophic flash, urban, and river flooding is
expected across central Florida. Widespread considerable flash,
urban, and river flooding is expected across portions of southern
Florida through tomorrow and northeast Florida, southeastern
Georgia, and coastal South Carolina later this week through the
weekend. Limited flash, urban, and river flooding is possible over
portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic later this week
through the weekend.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today across central and south
Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula, the
Florida Keys, and the Gulf coast of Florida. These swells will
spread westward along portions of the north-central Gulf
coast during the next day or so. Swells will increase along the
east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and
Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 280458
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
100 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...1 AM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...IAN PRODUCING STORM SURGE FLOODING ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS...

A University of South Florida COMPS buoy located west of Ian's
center recently reported a sustained wind of 63 mph (101 km/h) and
a gust to 89 mph (144 km/h). An elevated WeatherFlow station at
Smith Shoal Light reported a sustained wind of 66 mph (106 km/h)
with a gust of 97 mph (156 km/h).

The National Ocean Service tide gauge at Key West measured a peak
water level of about 2.5 ft above Mean Higher High Water during the
past couple of hours.


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 83.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 280420
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Special Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1230 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

This Special Advisory has been released to issue a Storm Surge
Warning for the Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key to Key West.
The storm surge inundation amounts for the area have been increased
to 3 to 5 ft.

No other changes were made to the track or intensity forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected along the Florida west
coast and the Lower Florida Keys where a storm surge warning is
in effect, with the highest risk from Naples to the Sarasota region.
Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local
officials and follow any evacuation orders for your area.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area
in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning
with tropical storm conditions expected overnight. Devastating wind
damage is expected near the core of Ian. Residents should rush all
preparations to completion.

3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast later this week and
this weekend. Catastrophic flooding is expected across portions of
central Florida with considerable flooding in southern Florida,
northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina.
Widespread, prolonged moderate to major river flooding expected
across central Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0430Z 25.0N 82.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 26.0N 82.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 27.2N 81.9W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1200Z 28.2N 81.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0000Z 29.3N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 30/1200Z 30.6N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 32.7N 81.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/0000Z 36.0N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 280419
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IAN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
0430 UTC WED SEP 28 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM BIG PINE KEY WESTWARD TO KEY WEST.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM BIG PINE KEY WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* INDIAN PASS TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER
* ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
* FLAMINGO TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO EAST OF BIG
PINE KEY
* FLORIDA BAY
* MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 82.9W AT 28/0430Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 180SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 82.9W AT 28/0430Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 83.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.0N 82.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.2N 81.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.2N 81.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...280NE 120SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.3N 80.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...310NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 30.6N 80.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...260NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 32.7N 81.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 36.0N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 82.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 280420
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Special Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1230 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC
WINDS AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...STORM SURGE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 1230 AM EDT...0430 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 82.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Lower Florida Keys
from Big Pine Key westward to Key West.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary's River
* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Indian Pass to the Anclote River
* All of the Florida Keys
* Flamingo to South Santee River
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big
Pine Key
* Florida Bay
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1230 AM EDT (0430 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 82.9 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion
with a reduction in forward speed is forecast tonight and
Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the north on Thursday.
On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to pass west
of the Florida Keys within the next few hours, and approach the
west coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area on
Wednesday. The center of Ian is forecast to move over central
Florida Wednesday night and Thursday morning and emerge over the
western Atlantic by late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is expected until the
hurricane makes landfall. Ian is forecast to approach the
west coast of Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.14 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte
Harbor...8-12 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...6-10 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa
Bay...4-6 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-7 ft
* Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key, including the Dry
Tortugas...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Mouth of the St. Mary's River,
including St. Johns River...3-5 ft
* Altamaha Sound to Savannah River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Indian Pass to Suwanee River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of
Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday morning, with
tropical storm conditions possibly beginning tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the
Florida Keys, and will continue overnight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area on the east coast of
Florida beginning early Wednesday, and should spread up to Georgia
and South Carolina on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in Cuba for the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm
total rainfall:

* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local
maxima up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with local
maxima up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches,
with local maxima of 12 inches.

Widespread catastrophic flash, urban, and river flooding is
expected across central Florida. Widespread considerable flash,
urban, and river flooding is expected across portions of southern
Florida through tomorrow and northeast Florida, southeastern
Georgia, and coastal South Carolina later this week through the
weekend. Limited flash, urban, and river flooding is possible over
portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic later this week
through the weekend.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through Wednesday across central
and south Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean
and the Florida Keys, and will spread northward throughout the
eastern Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 280359
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1200 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...12 AM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...STORM SURGE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

A special advisory will be released by 1230 AM EDT (0430 UTC) to
issue a Storm Surge Warning for the Lower Florida Keys from Big
Pine Key westward to Key West. There will be no changes to the
track or intensity forecast.

The Key West International Airport recently reported a sustained
wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) with a gust to 79 mph (128 km/h). An
elevated WeatherFlow station at Smith Shoal Light reported a
sustained wind of 64 mph (104 km/h) with a gust of 93 mph (150
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 82.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM N OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 280254
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

The hurricane continues to have an impressive appearance on
satellite imagery, exhibiting considerable deep convection with
numerous cloud tops colder than -80C. An Air Force Hurricane
Hunter Aircraft recently penetrated the center and found that the
central pressure had not fallen since earlier this evening. Based
on a blend of SFMR-observed surface winds and 700 mb flight-level
winds from the Air Force plane, the current intensity is held at
105 kt for now.

Ian has turned slightly to the right and the initial motion is now
015/9 kt. Over the next couple of days, the tropical cyclone
should move between the western edge of a subtropical high
pressure system and a broad trough over the eastern United
States. The dynamical model consensus, TVCN, prediction has again
shifted a little to the east, and is just slightly slower on
this cycle. Therefore the official track forecast has, again, been
shifted a few degrees to the east of the previous one. This
does not require any change the watches and warnings over Florida at
this time.

Ian's outflow is being restricted over the southwestern portion of
its circulation by southwesterly upper-tropospheric flow over the
Gulf of Mexico. Vertical shear over the hurricane is likely to
increase up through landfall. The SHIPS guidance and water vapor
imagery suggest that there will also be some dry mid-level air in
the vicinity. However, it is expected that this large system will
be fairly resilient to the shear and dry air before landfall.
Therefore, the official intensity forecast continues to show Ian
reaching the coast with category 4 intensity. Since radar imagery
indicates that an eyewall replacement is probably underway, this
could result in a larger eye evolving overnight. Interests along
the Florida west coast in the Hurricane Warning area should be
prepared for a large and destructive hurricane, and residents in
this area should heed the advice of emergency management officials.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track as some
additional adjustments to the track are possible, and significant
wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the
center.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected along the Florida west
coast where a storm surge warning is in effect, with the highest
risk from Naples to the Sarasota region. Residents in these areas
should listen to advice given by local officials and follow any
evacuation orders for your area.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area
in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning
with tropical storm conditions expected overnight. Devastating wind
damage is expected near the core of Ian. Residents should rush all
preparations to completion.

3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast later this week and
this weekend. Catastrophic flooding is expected across portions of
central Florida with considerable flooding in southern Florida,
northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina.
Widespread, prolonged moderate to major river flooding expected
across central Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 24.9N 82.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 26.0N 82.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 27.2N 81.9W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1200Z 28.2N 81.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0000Z 29.3N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 30/1200Z 30.6N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 32.7N 81.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/0000Z 36.0N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 280253
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC
WINDS AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 82.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch north of Altamaha Sound to South Santee
River is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary's River
* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Indian Pass to the Anclote River
* All of the Florida Keys
* Flamingo to South Santee River
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Florida Bay
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 82.9 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion
with a reduction in forward speed is forecast tonight and
Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the north on Thursday.
On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to pass west
of the Florida Keys within the next few hours, and approach the
west coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area on
Wednesday. The center of Ian is forecast to move over central
Florida Wednesday night and Thursday morning and emerge over the
western Atlantic by late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is expected until the
hurricane makes landfall. Ian is forecast to approach the
west coast of Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). The Key West International Airport just reported sustained
winds of 52 mph (84 km/h) with a gust to 79 mph (127 km/h).

The minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte
Harbor...8-12 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...6-10 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa
Bay...4-6 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-7 ft
* Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Mouth of the St. Mary's River,
including St. Johns River...3-5 ft
* Altamaha Sound to Savannah River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Indian Pass to Suwanee River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of
Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday morning, with
tropical storm conditions possibly beginning tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the
Florida Keys, and will continue overnight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area on the east coast of
Florida beginning early Wednesday, and should spread up to Georgia
and South Carolina on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in Cuba for the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm
total rainfall:

* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local
maxima up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with local
maxima up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches,
with local maxima of 12 inches.

Widespread catastrophic flash, urban, and river flooding is
expected across central Florida. Widespread considerable flash,
urban, and river flooding is expected across portions of southern
Florida through tomorrow and northeast Florida, southeastern
Georgia, and coastal South Carolina later this week through the
weekend. Limited flash, urban, and river flooding is possible over
portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic later this week
through the weekend.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through Wednesday across central
and south Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean
and the Florida Keys, and will spread northward throughout the
eastern Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 280247
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
0300 UTC WED SEP 28 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* INDIAN PASS TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER
* ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
* FLAMINGO TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* FLORIDA BAY
* MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 82.9W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 82.9W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 83.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.0N 82.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.2N 81.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.2N 81.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...280NE 120SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.3N 80.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...310NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 30.6N 80.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...260NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 32.7N 81.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 36.0N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 82.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 280155
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1000 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...10 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...EYE OF IAN NOW MOVING OVER THE DRY TORTUGAS...

The Key West International Airport recently reported a sustained
wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) with a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h). An
elevated WeatherFlow station at Smith Shoal Light reported a
sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) with a gust of 91 mph (146 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 82.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 280057
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
900 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...9 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

The Key West International Airport recently reported a sustained
wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) with a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h). A
private weather station near Coco Plum Beach, near Marathon,
recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) with a gust to
47 mph (75 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 83.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 272352
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 83.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary's River
* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Suwannee River to the Anclote River
* All of the Florida Keys
* Flamingo to Altamaha Sound
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Florida Bay
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 83.0 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion
with a reduction in forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to pass west
of the Florida Keys later tonight, and approach the west coast of
Florida within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is expected tonight through
Wednesday. Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida as
an extremely dangerous major hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). Sustained tropical-storm-force winds have been
reported at the Key West International Airport and the Key West
Naval Air Station during the last hour. A National Data Buoy
Center Site near Sombrero Key recently reported a sustained wind of
43 mph (69 km/h). The Florida Keys Marathon International Airport
just reported a wind gust to 52 mph (84 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 947 mb (27.96 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte
Harbor...8-12 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...6-9 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa
Bay...4-6 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-6 ft
* Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Mouth of the St. Mary's River,
including St. Johns River...3-5 ft
* Altamaha Sound to Savannah River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Indian Pass to Suwanee River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of
Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday morning, with
tropical storm conditions possibly beginning tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the
Florida Keys, and will continue overnight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area on the east coast of
Florida beginning early Wednesday, and should spread up to Georgia
and South Carolina on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in Cuba for the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through
Thursday night:

* Western Cuba: 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals up to 16
inches. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in
areas of higher terrain over western Cuba.
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with isolated
totals up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with isolated
totals up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with
isolated totals up to 12 inches.

Widespread catastrophic flash, urban, and river flooding is expected
across central and west Florida beginning midweek. Widespread
considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across
northern Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina
from the end of the week through the weekend. Limited river
flooding is expected over portions of the southeastern United
States into the Mid-Atlantic mid-to-late week.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through Wednesday across central
and south Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean
and the Florida Keys, and will spread northward throughout the
eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/D. Zelinsky/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 272256
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
700 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...7 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED WITH IAN IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent observations
from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is 947 mb (27.96 inches).

During the last hour, the Key West International Airport reported a
sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) with a gust to 71 mph (114
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 83.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 272157
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
600 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...6 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED WITH IAN IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

The Key West International Airport recently reported a sustained
wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) with a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h). A
WeatherFlow station at the Key West Coast Guard recently reported a
wind gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 83.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 272114 CCB
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 19...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Corrected Watches and Warnings Section

...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED WITH IAN IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 83.2W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been extended southward on the west coast of
Florida to Chokoloskee. The government of Cuba has downgraded the
Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of
Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa. The Tropical Storm
Watch from the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, for the Upper Florida
Keys, Florida Bay, and for southeastern Florida from south of Boca
Raton has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Storm Surge Watch from Marineland to the Flagler/Volusia County
Line has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning. The Storm Surge
Watch from the Aucilla River to the Suwannee River has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary's River
* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Suwannee River to the Anclote River
* All of the Florida Keys
* Flamingo to Altamaha Sound
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Florida Bay
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 83.2 West. Ian is moving toward
the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast
with a reduction in forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today, pass west of the Florida Keys
later tonight, and approach the west coast of Florida within the
hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Re-strengthening is expected later today
through Wednesday. Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of
Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km)
from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
140 miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte
Harbor...8-12 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...6-9 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa
Bay...4-6 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-6 ft
* Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Mouth of the St. Mary's River,
including St. Johns River...3-5 ft
* Altamaha Sound to Savannah River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Indian Pass to Suwanee River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Water levels should be receding in Cuba as Ian moves away.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of
Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday morning, with
tropical storm conditions possibly beginning tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the
Florida Keys tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of Florida beginning
early Wednesday, spreading up to Georgia and South Carolina on
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in Cuba through tonight.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through
Thursday night:

* Western Cuba: 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals up to 16
inches. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in
areas of higher terrain over western Cuba.
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with isolated
totals up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with isolated
totals up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with
isolated totals up to 12 inches.

Widespread catastrophic flash, urban, and river flooding is expected
across central and west Florida beginning midweek. Widespread
considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across
northern Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina
from the end of the week through the weekend. Limited river
flooding is expected over portions of the southeastern United
States into the Mid-Atlantic mid-to-late week.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through Wednesday across central
and south Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean,
and the Florida Keys, and will spread northward throughout the
eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 272113 CCA
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
2100 UTC TUE SEP 27 2022

CORRECTED WATCHES AND WARNINGS SECTION

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA TO CHOKOLOSKEE. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DOWNGRADED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF
ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA. THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS...FOR THE UPPER FLORIDA
KEYS...FLORIDA BAY...AND FOR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF BOCA
RATON HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH FROM MARINELAND TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY
LINE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A STORM SURGE WARNING. THE STORM SURGE
WATCH FROM THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER
* ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
* FLAMINGO TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
* FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* FLORIDA BAY
* MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 83.2W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 180SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 83.2W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 83.3W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 25.3N 82.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.6N 82.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.6N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...280NE 120SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.5N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...310NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 29.4N 81.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...260NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.0N 81.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 34.5N 82.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 83.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 272107 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 19...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Corrected Watches and Warnings for the Bahamas

...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED WITH IAN IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 83.2W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been extended southward on the west coast of
Florida to Chokoloskee. The government of Cuba has downgraded the
Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of
Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa. The Tropical Storm
Watch from the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, for the Upper Florida
Keys, Florida Bay, and for southeastern Florida from south of Boca
Raton has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Storm Surge Watch from Marineland to the Flagler/Volusia County
Line has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning. The Storm Surge
Watch from the Aucilla River to the Suwannee River has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary's River
* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Suwannee River to the Anclote River
* All of the Florida Keys
* Flamingo to Altamaha Sound
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Florida Bay
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River
* South of Marineland to the Volusia/Flagler county line

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 83.2 West. Ian is moving toward
the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast
with a reduction in forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today, pass west of the Florida Keys
later tonight, and approach the west coast of Florida within the
hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Re-strengthening is expected later today
through Wednesday. Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of
Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km)
from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
140 miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte
Harbor...8-12 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...6-9 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa
Bay...4-6 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-6 ft
* Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Mouth of the St. Mary's River,
including St. Johns River...3-5 ft
* Altamaha Sound to Savannah River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Indian Pass to Suwanee River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Water levels should be receding in Cuba as Ian moves away.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of
Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday morning, with
tropical storm conditions possibly beginning tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the
Florida Keys tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of Florida beginning
early Wednesday, spreading up to Georgia and South Carolina on
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in Cuba through tonight.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through
Thursday night:

* Western Cuba: 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals up to 16
inches. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in
areas of higher terrain over western Cuba.
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with isolated
totals up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with isolated
totals up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with
isolated totals up to 12 inches.

Widespread catastrophic flash, urban, and river flooding is expected
across central and west Florida beginning midweek. Widespread
considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across
northern Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina
from the end of the week through the weekend. Limited river
flooding is expected over portions of the southeastern United
States into the Mid-Atlantic mid-to-late week.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through Wednesday across central
and south Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean,
and the Florida Keys, and will spread northward throughout the
eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 272059
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

The pressure on the last Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft fix
fell to about 952 mb, indicating that Ian is restrengthening
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The eye of Ian remains
well-defined on visible imagery, although radar data from Key West
suggest that an eyewall replacement could be in the initial stages.
The initial wind speed is set to 105 kt, matching a blend of
earlier SFMR and flight-level wind data. The plane data also
showed that the area of hurricane-force winds is growing on the
east side of the cyclone.

Ian is moving east-of-due-north, or 010/9-kt, with occasional
wobbles to the north-northeast. A track toward the north-northeast
is expected for the next couple of days while it moves between a
ridge over the Bahamas and a trough over the western Gulf of Mexico.
There has been some model convergence this afternoon showing Ian
remaining stronger and vertically deeper through landfall. This
solution results in a faster track, again adjusted to the southeast,
and the new forecast is moved in that direction. This new NHC track
is close to the corrected model consensus and between the quicker
ECMWF and slower GFS models. It should be emphasized that this
track remains uncertain, with a typical spread in the steering
features leading to big speed and track differences down the line,
not to mention the oblique angle of approach to Florida. In a few
days, more of the guidance is showing Ian interacting with a
shortwave trough over the southeastern United States, causing the
system to move back over the northwestern Atlantic in the longer
range, before turning northwestward back over land. The day 3-5
track forecast is also shifted eastward, although significant
re-strengthening is not expected at long range.

The outflow pattern of the hurricane is beginning to be impinged
upon in the southwestern quadrant, a sign that upper-level
southwesterly flow is starting to affect the outer circulation.
While the shear should increase up through landfall, it is just too
close-to-call whether it starts to weaken Ian or not, or whether the
larger system is able to resist the shear. Additionally, an eyewall
replacement cycle could be in its initial phases, although
predicting these structural changes is extremely difficult. The new
forecast is near the last one, a little higher than the consensus.
I should note that whether Ian comes ashore as category 4 hurricane
or a large category 3 after an eyewall cycle, avoiding a large and
destructive hurricane for Florida seems very unlikely, and residents
should heed the advice of local emergency management officials.

The new forecast necessitates a Hurricane Warning for portions of
extreme southwestern Florida, and a Tropical Storm Warning for the
rest of southeastern Florida that wasn't previously under a warning.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact track as some
additional adjustments to the track are possible. Significant wind,
storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is increasingly likely along the
Florida west coast where a storm surge warning is in effect, with
the highest risk from Naples to the Sarasota region. Residents in
these areas should listen to advice given by local officials and
follow any evacuation orders for your area.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area
in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning
with tropical storm conditions expected overnight. Devastating wind
damage is expected near the core of Ian. Residents should rush all
preparations to completion.

3. Heavy rainfall will affect most of the Florida Peninsula for the
next several days, spreading to the rest of the Southeast U.S. by
Thursday and Friday, likely causing flash, urban, and small stream
flooding. Considerable flooding is expected with widespread,
prolonged moderate to major river flooding expected across central
Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 24.0N 83.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 25.3N 82.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 26.6N 82.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 27.6N 82.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/1800Z 28.5N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 30/0600Z 29.4N 81.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 31.0N 81.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 01/1800Z 34.5N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 272058
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED WITH IAN IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 83.2W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been extended southward on the west coast of
Florida to Chokoloskee. The government of Cuba has downgraded the
Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of
Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa. The Tropical Storm
Watch from the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, for the Upper Florida
Keys, Florida Bay, and for southeastern Florida from south of Boca
Raton has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Storm Surge Watch from Marineland to the Flagler/Volusia County
Line has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning. The Storm Surge
Watch from the Aucilla River to the Suwannee River has been
discontinued.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary's River
* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Suwannee River to the Anclote River
* All of the Florida Keys
* Flamingo to Altamaha Sound
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Florida Bay
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River
* South of Marineland to the Volusia/Flagler county line

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 83.2 West. Ian is moving toward
the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast
with a reduction in forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today, pass west of the Florida Keys
later tonight, and approach the west coast of Florida within the
hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Re-strengthening is expected later today
through Wednesday. Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of
Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km)
from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
140 miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte
Harbor...8-12 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...6-9 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa
Bay...4-6 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-6 ft
* Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Mouth of the St. Mary's River,
including St. Johns River...3-5 ft
* Altamaha Sound to Savannah River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Indian Pass to Suwanee River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Water levels should be receding in Cuba as Ian moves away.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of
Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday morning, with
tropical storm conditions possibly beginning tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the
Florida Keys tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of Florida beginning
early Wednesday, spreading up to Georgia and South Carolina on
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in Cuba through tonight.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through
Thursday night:

* Western Cuba: 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals up to 16
inches. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in
areas of higher terrain over western Cuba.
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with isolated
totals up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with isolated
totals up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with
isolated totals up to 12 inches.

Widespread catastrophic flash, urban, and river flooding is expected
across central and west Florida beginning midweek. Widespread
considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across
northern Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina
from the end of the week through the weekend. Limited river
flooding is expected over portions of the southeastern United
States into the Mid-Atlantic mid-to-late week.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through Wednesday across central
and south Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean,
and the Florida Keys, and will spread northward throughout the
eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 272057
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
2100 UTC TUE SEP 27 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA TO CHOKOLOSKEE. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DOWNGRADED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF
ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA. THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS...FOR THE UPPER FLORIDA
KEYS...FLORIDA BAY...AND FOR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF BOCA
RATON HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH FROM MARINELAND TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY
LINE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A STORM SURGE WARNING. THE STORM SURGE
WATCH FROM THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER
* ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
* FLAMINGO TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
* FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* FLORIDA BAY
* MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* SOUTH OF MARINELAND TO THE VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 83.2W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 180SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 83.2W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 83.3W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 25.3N 82.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.6N 82.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.6N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...280NE 120SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.5N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...310NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 29.4N 81.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...260NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.0N 81.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 34.5N 82.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 83.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 271958
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
400 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...4 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...

In the past hour, the Cuba Institute of Meteorology located in
Havana reported a sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h) with a gust to
87 mph (140 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 83.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 271858
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
300 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...3 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
the minimum pressure has decreased to 952 mb (28.11 in).

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 83.3W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 271756
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...HURRICANE IAN GROWING STRONGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 83.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa
* Bonita Beach to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwanee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
* Marineland to the mouth of the St. Mary's River
* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Suwannee River to the Anclote River
* Flamingo to Bonita Beach
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys
* Boca Raton to Altamaha Sound
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Florida Bay
* Aucilla River to Suwanee River
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River
* South of Marineland to the Volusia/Flagler county line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Anclote River to Suwannee River
* South of Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Suwannee River to Indian Pass
* North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River
* South of Boca Raton to east of Flamingo
* Upper Florida Keys
* Florida Bay

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 83.3 West. Ian is moving toward
the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue today. A turn toward the north-northeast with a reduction
in forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Ian is expected to move over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico today, pass west of the Florida Keys later tonight,
and approach the west coast of Florida within the hurricane warning
area on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Re-strengthening is expected
later today through Wednesday. Ian is forecast to approach the
west coast of Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure has dropped to 955 mb (28.20 inches)
based on Air Force Hurricane Hunter data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte
Harbor...8-12 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...6-9 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa
Bay...4-7 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-6 ft
* Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft
* Marineland to Mouth of the St. Mary's River, including St.
Johns River...3-5 ft
* Altamaha Sound to Savannah River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Marineland...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Aucilla River to Suwannee River...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Indian Pass to Aucilla River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of
onshore winds in the hurricane warning area early today.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in
Cuba for a few more hours, with destructive winds possible.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area in Cuba today.

Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida
within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday morning, with
tropical storm conditions possibly beginning by late today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area
along the southwest coast of the Florida peninsula by this evening,
and along the west coast north of the Tampa Bay area and along
portions of the east coast of Florida on Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the
lower and middle Florida Keys beginning later today, and are
possible in southeastern Florida in the Tropical Storm Watch area
beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of Florida
beginning early Wednesday, spreading up to Georgia and South
Carolina on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the Tropical Storm Watch area in the Florida Big Bend area on
Wednesday into early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through
Thursday night:

* Western Cuba: 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals up to 16
inches. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in
areas of higher terrain over western Cuba.
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with isolated
totals up to 12 inches.
* Central West Florida: 12 to 16 inches, with isolated totals up to
24 inches.
* Northeast Florida and the remainder of the Central Florida
Peninsula: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated totals up to 12 inches.
* Heavy rainfall is expected to affect the southeastern United
States Friday and Saturday.

Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding are expected
mid-to-late week across central and northern Florida, southern
Georgia, and coastal South Carolina, with significant, prolonged
river flooding expected across central to northern Florida. Flash
and urban flooding are also expected with rainfall across southern
Florida through mid week. Limited flash and river flooding is
expected over portions of the southeastern United States into the
Mid-Atlantic mid-to-late week.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today through Wednesday across
the Florida Keys and the southern and central Florida Peninsula.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean,
and the Florida Keys, and will spread northward throughout the
eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 271657
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
100 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...1 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 83.4W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 271600
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1200 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...12 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE OF IAN...

Radar imagery from Key West shows that the center of Ian is located
over the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Hourly updates of Ian's
position will continue as long as the eye is easily trackable by
land-based radar.

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 83.5W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 271500
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...POWERFUL HURRICANE IAN EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR FLORIDA, GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 83.5W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the U.S. east coast from
Marineland Florida to the mouth of St. Mary's River including the
St. Johns River, and the Dry Tortugas. Along the Florida west
coast, a Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Suwanee River to
Anclote River.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the west coast of Florida from
south of Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the mouth of the St.
Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina.

The Tropical Storm Warning along the U.S. east coast has been
extended north to Altamaha Sound Georgia and south to Boca Raton
Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from south of Boca Raton to east
of Flamingo Florida, for the upper Florida Keys and Florida Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from north of Altamaha Sound to
South Santee River South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa
* Bonita Beach to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwanee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
* Marineland to the mouth of the St. Mary's River
* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Suwannee River to the Anclote River
* Flamingo to Bonita Beach
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys
* Boca Raton to Altamaha Sound
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Florida Bay
* Aucilla River to Suwanee River
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River
* South of Marineland to the Volusia/Flagler county line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Anclote River to Suwannee River
* South of Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Suwannee River to Indian Pass
* North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River
* South of Boca Raton to east of Flamingo
* Upper Florida Keys
* Florida Bay

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.


For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 83.5 West. Ian is moving toward
the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue today. A turn toward the north-northeast with a reduction
in forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico in a couple of hours, pass west of the
Florida Keys later today, and approach the west coast of Florida
within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Re-strengthening is expected later today
through Wednesday. Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of
Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches)
based on Air Force Hurricane Hunter data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte
Harbor...8-12 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...5-8 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa
Bay...5-8 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...4-6 ft
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-6 ft
* Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft
* Marineland to Mouth of the St. Mary's River, including St.
Johns River...3-5 ft
* Altamaha Sound to Savannah River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Marineland...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Aucilla River to Suwannee River...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Indian Pass to Aucilla River...1-3

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of
onshore winds in the hurricane warning area early today.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in
Cuba through early afternoon, with destructive winds likely for a
few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
tropical storm warning area in Cuba today.

Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida
within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday morning, with
tropical storm conditions possibly beginning by late today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area
along the southwest coast of the Florida peninsula by this evening,
and along the west coast north of the Tampa Bay area and along
portions of the east coast of Florida on Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the
lower and middle Florida Keys beginning later today, and are
possible in southeastern Florida in the Tropical Storm Watch area
beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of Florida
beginning early Wednesday, spreading up to Georgia and South
Carolina on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the Tropical Storm Watch area in the Florida Big Bend area on
Wednesday into early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through
Thursday night:

* Western Cuba: 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals up to 16
inches. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in
areas of higher terrain over western Cuba.
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 4 to 6 inches, with isolated
totals up to 8 inches.
* Central West Florida: 12 to 16 inches, with isolated totals up to
24 inches.
* Northeast Florida and the remainder of the Central Florida
Peninsula: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated totals up to 12 inches.
* Heavy rainfall is expected to affect the southeastern United
States Friday and Saturday.

Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding are expected
mid-to-late week across central and northern Florida, southern
Georgia, and coastal South Carolina, with significant, prolonged
river flooding expected across central to northern Florida. Flash
and urban flooding are also expected with rainfall across southern
Florida through mid week. Limited flash and river flooding is
expected over portions of the southeastern United States into the
Mid-Atlantic mid-to-late week.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today through Wednesday across
the Florida Keys and the southern and central Florida Peninsula.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean,
and the Florida Keys, and will spread northward throughout the
eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 271500
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

The well-defined eye of Ian emerged off the coast of western Cuba
about an hour ago. Earlier reports from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Ian strengthened up through landfall, with an
estimated pressure of 947 mb over western Cuba. While the hurricane
has filled somewhat due to the passage over Cuba, Air Force Reserve
and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data show that it has grown in size. The
initial wind speed is set to 100 kt.

Ian is moving northward, or 005/9 kt. Dropsonde data from the NOAA
G-IV aircraft indicate a potent upper-level trough is over the
western Gulf of Mexico. The strength of this trough, the associated
southwesterly flow, and the vertical depth of Ian appear to be the
keys to the forecast. There has been a notable trend toward the
hurricane remaining more intact up through landfall, meaning Ian is
likely to turn to the northeast and not move as slowly as previously
anticipated. However, it should be emphasized that this track
remains very uncertain, with a typical spread in the steering
features leading to big speed and track differences down the line,
not to mention the oblique angle of approach to Florida. The latest
forecast is adjusted to the southeast for this advisory, showing
landfall 6-12 hours faster than before, and we will have to see if
the southern trend continues in the afternoon guidance. The rest of
the forecast after landfall has been adjusted to the northeast as
well, though it is still slower than the consensus guidance at
longer range.

The hurricane should remain in a favorable environment for
restrengthening over the next day or so while it moves over the warm
waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and in light-shear
conditions. While the shear should increase by tomorrow, it isn't
expected to be enough to significantly weaken the hurricane before
landfall. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on this
scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast continues to call for an
extremely dangerous hurricane landfall for southwestern Florida.

The new forecast necessitates a Hurricane Watch for portions of
extreme southwestern Florida, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the
rest of southeastern Florida that wasn't previously under a watch.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact track as some
additional adjustments to the track are possible. Significant wind,
storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods
and possible mudslides are expected to continue in portions of
western Cuba today. Devastating wind damage is expected near the
core of Ian.

2. Life-threatening storm surge looks increasingly likely along much
of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning is in effect,
with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region.
Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local
officials and follow evacuation orders if made for your area.

3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area
in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning
with tropical storm conditions expected by this evening. Residents
should rush all preparations to completion today.

4. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and south
Florida today, spreading into central and northern Florida tonight
and Wednesday, into the Southeast U.S. by Thursday and Friday,
likely causing flash, urban, and small stream flooding. Considerable
flooding is expected across central Florida into southern Georgia
and coastal South Carolina, with widespread, prolonged moderate to
major river flooding expected across central Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 23.0N 83.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 24.4N 83.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 26.0N 83.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 27.1N 82.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 27.8N 82.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
60H 30/0000Z 28.5N 81.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1200Z 29.5N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/1200Z 33.0N 81.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/1200Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 271456
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
1500 UTC TUE SEP 27 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM
MARINELAND FLORIDA TO THE MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER INCLUDING THE
ST. JOHNS RIVER...AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST...A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SUWANEE RIVER TO
ANCLOTE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH TO CHOKOLOSKEE.

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE ST.
MARY'S RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA AND SOUTH TO BOCA RATON
FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF BOCA RATON TO
EAST OF FLAMINGO FLORIDA...FOR THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA
BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA
* BONITA BEACH TO ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS
* MARINELAND TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER
* FLAMINGO TO BONITA BEACH
* LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS
* BOCA RATON TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* FLORIDA BAY
* AUCILLA RIVER TO SUWANEE RIVER
* MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* SOUTH OF MARINELAND TO THE VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ANCLOTE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER
* SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH TO CHOKOLOSKEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS
* NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* SOUTH OF BOCA RATON TO EAST OF FLAMINGO
* UPPER FLORIDA KEYS
* FLORIDA BAY

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 83.5W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 180SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 83.5W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 83.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.4N 83.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.1N 82.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 120SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.8N 82.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...300NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 28.5N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...300NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.5N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...300NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 33.0N 81.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 35.0N 81.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 83.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 271156
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...IAN BATTERING WESTERN CUBA WITH HIGH WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 83.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NNE OF THE CITY OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
ABOUT 130 MI...240 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa
* Bonita Beach to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Flamingo to Bonita Beach
* Suwannee River to the Anclote River
* Volusia/Brevard County Line south to Jupiter Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Aucilla River to Anclote River
* Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line
* Saint Johns River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass
* Altamaha Sound to Volusia/Brevard County line
* Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and
the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located by
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft, Cuban and Key West radar data near
latitude 22.6 North, longitude 83.6 West. Ian is moving toward the
north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue
today. A turn toward the north-northeast with a reduction in
forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Ian is expected to emerge over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico in a couple of hours, pass west of the Florida Keys
later today, and approach the west coast of Florida within the
hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated near 125 mph (205 km/h) with
higher gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected while
Ian moves over Cuba. Strengthening is expected later this morning
after Ian emerges over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Ian is
forecast to approach the west coast of Florida as a dangerous major
hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.05 inches)
based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Anclote River to Bonita Beach, FL including Tampa
Bay and Charlotte Harbor...5-10 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River... 5-8 ft
* Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL... 4-7 ft
* Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound including
St. Johns River...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
* Aucilla River to Suwannee River...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
* Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet
above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of
onshore winds in the hurricane warning area early today.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in
Cuba through this morning. Destructive winds are expected where the
core of Ian moves across western Cuba. Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba today.

Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida
within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday morning, with
tropical storm conditions possibly beginning by late today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area
along the southwest coast of the Florida peninsula by this evening,
and along the west coast north of the Tampa Bay area and along
portions of the east coast of Florida on Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday,
and tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm
Watch area on Wednesday into early Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the
lower and middle Florida Keys beginning later today.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through
Thursday night:

* Western Cuba: 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals up to 16
inches. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in
areas of higher terrain over western Cuba.
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 4 to 6 inches, with isolated
totals up to 8 inches
* Central West Florida: 12 to 16 inches, with isolated totals up to
24 inches.
* Northeast Florida and the remainder of the Central Florida
Peninsula: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated totals up to 12 inches.

Heavy rainfall is expected to affect the southeastern United States
Friday and Saturday.

Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding are expected
mid-to-late week across central and northern Florida, southern
Georgia, and coastal South Carolina, with significant, prolonged
river flooding expected across central to northern Florida. Flash
and urban flooding are also expected with rainfall across southern
Florida through mid week. Limited flash and river flooding is
expected over portions of the southeastern United States into the
Mid-Atlantic mid-to-late week.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today through Wednesday across
the Florida Keys and the southern and central Florida Peninsula.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean,
and will begin to affect the Florida Keys today, and will spread
northward throughout the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and
Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 270858
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Ian's satellite presentation continued to improve up until the
center reached the coast of western Cuba around 0830 UTC. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that was in the storm until
around 0400 UTC reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 101 kt,
and a peak SFMR wind of 97 kt. During the final pass through the
center, dropsonde data supported a minimum pressure of 960 mb.
Given the continued improvement in satellite imagery, Dvorak data
T-numbers from SAB and TAFB of T5.5 (102 kt), and objective
estimates from UW/CIMSS of T5.4 (100 kt), the intensity was
increased to 100 kt shortly after 0600 UTC. The latest objective
Dvorak estimates have increased to around 110 kt, and that is the
estimated landfall intensity and initial intensity for this
advisory. NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft are
scheduled to investigate the storm as it moves off the northern
coast of Cuba this morning.

Ian is expected to spend only spend a few hours over western Cuba,
and little overall change in strength is likely during that time.
The center should emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later
this morning, where warm water and generally low vertical wind shear
conditions are expected to allow for additional intensification, and
the NHC forecast calls for Ian to reach category 4 strength. By 24
to 36 hours, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and drier
mid-level air are likely to result in some gradual weakening.
However, Ian is still expected to be a major hurricane when it
reaches the Florida west coast. The official intensity forecast is
near the latest simple and corrected multi-model consensus
predictions.

Ian has turned northward and is moving 355/10 kt. The hurricane
should continue on a northward motion today around the western
periphery of a subtropical ridge. After that time, a broad trough
over the eastern United States is expected to cause a
north-northeastward turn. There continues to be larger-than-normal
spread in the track guidance by 36-48 hours, however the trend in
the global models has been more southward and eastward over the
last cycle or two. As a result, the NHC track has been adjusted to
the southeast of the previous forecast and it lies just west of the
TVCA multi-model consensus aid. Users are reminded to not focus on
the exact track as some additional adjustments to the track are
possible, and wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend
far from the center. The updated forecast track has necessitated
several changes to the warnings and watches across the Florida Keys
and Florida peninsula, including an extension of the Hurricane
Warning southward to Bonita Beach on the west coast.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash
floods and possible mudslides are expected in portions of western
Cuba today. Devastating wind damage is expected where the core of
Ian moves across western Cuba this morning.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along much
of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning has been
issued, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay
region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by
local officials.

3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area
in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical
storm conditions expected by late today.

4. Heavy rainfall will spread across western Cuba through Tuesday.
This will likely produce instances of flash flooding and possible
mudslides in areas of higher terrain over western Cuba.

5. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and South
Florida Tuesday, spreading into central to northern Florida
Wednesday and Thursday, and the Southeast by Friday and Saturday,
likely causing flash, urban, and small stream flooding.
Considerable flooding is expected across Central Florida into
southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina, with significant,
prolonged river flooding expected across central to northern
Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 22.3N 83.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 23.7N 83.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 25.4N 83.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 26.7N 83.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 27.6N 82.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 28.3N 82.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0600Z 29.0N 82.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/0600Z 31.7N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/0600Z 35.0N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown/Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 270856
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE IAN MOVING OVER WESTERN CUBA...
...SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 83.7W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF THE CITY OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been extended southward along the west
coast of Florida to Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Middle Florida
Keys from the Channel 5 Bridge westward to the Seven Mile Bridge.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of
Florida from the Anclote River northward to the Suwannee River.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued along the east coast of
Florida from Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line
including Lake Okeechobee.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for southeast coast of
Florida from Deerfield Beach northward to Jupiter Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa
* Bonita Beach to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Flamingo to Bonita Beach
* Suwannee River to the Anclote River
* Volusia/Brevard County Line south to Jupiter Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Aucilla River to Anclote River
* Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line
* Saint Johns River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass
* Altamaha Sound to Volusia/Brevard County line
* Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and
the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 83.7 West. Ian is moving toward
the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue today. A turn toward the north-northeast with a reduction
in forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move over western
Cuba during the next few hours. Ian will then emerge over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, pass west of the
Florida Keys later today, and approach the west coast of Florida
within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected while
Ian moves over Cuba. Strengthening is expected later this
morning after Ian emerges over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida has a major
hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa
Bay...5-10 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...5-8 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...5-8 ft
* Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...
4-7 ft
* Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound including
St. Johns River...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
* Aucilla River to Suwannee River...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
* Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet
above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of
onshore winds in the hurricane warning area early today.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in
Cuba through this morning. Destructive winds are expected where the
core of Ian moves across western Cuba. Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba today.

Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida
within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday morning, with
tropical storm conditions possibly beginning by late today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area
along the southwest coast of the Florida peninsula by this evening,
and along the west coast north of the Tampa Bay area and along
portions of the east coast of Florida on Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday,
and tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm
Watch area on Wednesday into early Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the
lower and middle Florida Keys beginning later today.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through
Thursday night:

* Western Cuba: 6 to 12 inches, with local maxima up to 16
inches. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in
areas of higher terrain over western Cuba.
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 4 to 6 inches, with local
maxima up to 8 inches
* Central West Florida: 12 to 16 inches, with local maxima up to
24 inches.
* Northeast Florida and the remainder of the Central Florida
Peninsula: 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts up to 12 inches.

Heavy rainfall is expected to affect the Southeast Friday and
Saturday.

Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding are expected
mid-to-late week across central and northern Florida, southern
Georgia, and coastal South Carolina, with significant, prolonged
river flooding expected across central to northern Florida. Flash
and urban flooding are also expected with rainfall across southern
Florida through mid week. Limited flash and river flooding is
expected over portions of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic
mid-to-late week.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today through Wednesday across
the Florida Keys and the southern and central Florida Peninsula.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean,
and will begin to affect the Florida Keys today, and will spread
northward throughout the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and
Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 270855
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
0900 UTC TUE SEP 27 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA TO BONITA BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MIDDLE FLORIDA
KEYS FROM THE CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM THE ANCLOTE RIVER NORTHWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM JUPITER INLET TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA
* BONITA BEACH TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* FLAMINGO TO BONITA BEACH
* SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE SOUTH TO JUPITER INLET
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
* AUCILLA RIVER TO ANCLOTE RIVER
* ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
* SAINT JOHNS RIVER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS
* ALTAMAHA SOUND TO VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE
* DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 83.7W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 83.7W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 83.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.7N 83.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 25.4N 83.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.7N 83.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.6N 82.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.3N 82.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...240NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 29.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 31.7N 82.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 35.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 83.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 270831
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
430 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...IAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MAKES LANDFALL OVER WESTERN
CUBA...

Satellite and radar data indicate that the center of Ian has made
landfall just southwest of the town of La Coloma in the Pinar Del
Rio Province of Cuba at 430 AM EDT...0830 UTC. Maximum sustained
winds at landfall were estimated to be 125 MPH (205 KM/H). This
makes Ian a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale.

SUMMARY OF 430 AM EDT...0830 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 83.7W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM S OF THE CITY OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 270631
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
230 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...IAN BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER WESTERN CUBA SOON...

Earlier aircraft and more recent satellite data indicate that Ian
has continued to strengthen. The maximum winds are now estimated to
be 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 230 AM EDT...0630 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 83.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF THE CITY OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 270549
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...EYEWALL OF IAN NEARING THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA...
...SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED IN WESTERN
CUBA THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 83.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF THE CITY OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa
* Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Flamingo to Englewood

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Aucilla River to Anclote River
* Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line
* Saint Johns River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River
* Bonita Beach to Englewood

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee
* North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass
* Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and
the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 83.6 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north
with a slightly slower forward speed is expected today. A turn
toward the north-northeast with a further reduction in forward speed
is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian
is expected to move near or over western Cuba early this morning.
Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today,
pass west of the Florida Keys later today, and approach the west
coast of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected today, and
Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane today when it is near
western Cuba, and remain a major hurricane over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa
Bay...5-10 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...5-8 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...5-8 ft
* Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...
4-7 ft
* Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound including
St. Johns River...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
* Aucilla River to Suwannee River...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
* Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet
above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of
onshore winds in the hurricane warning area early today.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in
Cuba through this morning. Destructive winds are possible where the
core of Ian moves across western Cuba. Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba today.

Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida
within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions possibly beginning by tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by
this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch
area beginning on Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area on Wednesday into early Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the
lower Florida Keys and are possible in the watch area in the middle
Florida Keys beginning later today.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through
Thursday:

* Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches;
these rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain over western Cuba.
* Florida Keys: 4 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches
* Coastal Southwest and Southeast Florida: 4 to 6 inches with
local maxima up to 10 inches.
* Central West Florida: 6 to 12 inches, with local maxima up to
20 inches.
* Northeast Florida: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 12
inches.
* Remainder of the Central Florida Peninsula: 4 to 8 inches.

Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding, and prolonged
significant river flooding is likely mid-to-late week across central
and northern Florida, southern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina.
Flash and urban flooding is also possible with rainfall across
southern Florida through mid week. Limited flash and river flooding
are possible over portions of the Southeast mid-to-late week.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today across the Florida
Keys and the southern and central Florida Peninsula.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean,
and will begin to affect the Florida Keys today, and will spread
northward throughout the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and
Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 270258
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Ian continues to become better organized on satellite images with
intense deep convection in its Central Dense Overcast and numerous
surrounding banding features. The overall cloud pattern is quite
symmetric with well-defined upper-level outflow. Observations from
both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
central pressure is falling, and the intensity is increased to 90
kt based on a recently reported 700 mb flight-level wind of 101 kt
from the Air Force plane. This is also in agreement with a
subjective Dvorak satellite estimate from SAB.

Aside from its relatively brief time passing over western Cuba, Ian
will be moving over waters of very high oceanic heat content during
the next couple of days. The various Rapid Intensification (RI)
indices show a significant probability of RI and this is reflected
in the short-term official intensity forecast. However, the SHIPS
guidance, which is based on global model predictions, indicates that
a significant increase in southwesterly shear and a substantially
drying of low- to mid-level air will begin in 24-36 hours. The NHC
forecast, like the previous one, shows strengthening to Category 4
intensity in a day or so, followed by gradual weakening. However,
Ian is still expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the
Florida west coast. The official intensity forecast is near or
above the latest simple and corrected multi-model consensus
predictions.

Ian continues its north-northwestward trek at about 340/11 kt. The
hurricane is expected to move north-northwestward to northward
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so,
along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. After around
36 hours, the track forecast becomes more uncertain, since there is
considerable divergence of the track models in the 2-3 day
time frame. The guidance also shows considerable slowing of the
forward speed, due to a weakening of the steering currents, when
Ian approaches the west coast of Florida. This slower forward
motion is likely to prolong the storm surge, wind, and rainfall
impacts, especially along the west coast of Florida. The official
track forecast is adjusted just slightly east of the previous NHC
prediction based on the latest multi-model consensus aid, TVCN.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods
and possible mudslides are expected in portions of western Cuba
beginning overnight and continuing into Tuesday. Devastating wind
damage is possible where the core of Ian moves across western Cuba.
Efforts to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along much
of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning has been
issued, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay
region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by
local officials.

3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area
in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical
storm conditions expected by late Tuesday.

4. Heavy rainfall will spread across western Cuba through Tuesday.
This will likely produce instances of flash flooding and possible
mudslides in areas of higher terrain over western Cuba.

5. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and South
Florida Tuesday, spreading into central and northern Florida
Wednesday and Thursday and the Southeast by Friday and Saturday,
potentially causing flash, urban and small stream flooding.
Considerable flooding, including significant, prolonged river
flooding, is likely across Central Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 21.3N 83.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 22.8N 83.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 24.5N 83.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 26.1N 83.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 27.2N 83.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 27.9N 82.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0000Z 28.6N 82.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/0000Z 31.3N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/0000Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 270257
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY...
...SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS WILL BEGIN
IN WESTERN CUBA VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 83.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa
* Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Flamingo to Englewood

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Aucilla River to Anclote River
* Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line
* Saint Johns River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River
* Bonita Beach to Englewood

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee
* North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass
* Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and
the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 83.4 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north
with a slightly slower forward speed is expected on Tuesday. A turn
toward the north-northeast with a further reduction in forward speed
is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian
is expected to move near or over western Cuba overnight and early
Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach
the west coast of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane overnight
or early Tuesday when it is near western Cuba, and remain a major
hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). An amateur radio operator recently reported that an
automated weather station at Cayo Largo, Cuba measured a
wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h) during the last couple of hours.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa
Bay...5-10 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...5-8 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...5-8 ft
* Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...
4-7 ft
* Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound including
St. Johns River...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
* Aucilla River to Suwannee River...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
* Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet
above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of
onshore winds in the hurricane warning area tonight and early
Tuesday.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in
Cuba beginning tonight. Destructive winds are possible where the
core of Ian moves across western Cuba. Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba tonight
and Tuesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida
within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions possibly beginning by Tuesday night. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by
Tuesday evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch
area beginning on Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area on Wednesday into early Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the
lower Florida Keys and are possible in the watch area in the middle
Florida Keys on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following
rainfall through Thursday:

* Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches;
these rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain over western Cuba.
* Florida Keys: 4 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches
* Coastal Southwest and Southeast Florida: 4 to 6 inches with
local maxima up to 10 inches.
* Central West Florida: 6 to 12 inches, with local maxima up to
20 inches.
* Northeast Florida: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 12
inches.
* Remainder of the Central Florida Peninsula: 4 to 8 inches.

Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding, and prolonged
significant river flooding is likely mid-to-late week across central
and northern Florida, southern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina.
Flash and urban flooding is also possible with rainfall across
southern Florida through mid week. Limited flash and river flooding
are possible over portions of the Southeast mid-to-late week.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight and Tuesday
across the Florida Keys and the southern/central Florida Peninsula.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean,
will begin to affect the Florida Keys Tuesday, and will spread
northward throughout the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 270256
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
0300 UTC TUE SEP 27 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA
* ENGLEWOOD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* FLAMINGO TO ENGLEWOOD

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
* AUCILLA RIVER TO ANCLOTE RIVER
* ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
* SAINT JOHNS RIVER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
* BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS
* JUPITER INLET TO ALTAMAHA SOUND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY
ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 83.4W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 83.4W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 83.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.8N 83.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.5N 83.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.1N 83.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.2N 83.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.9N 82.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 28.6N 82.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 31.3N 82.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 35.0N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 83.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 262359
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE WITH
SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 83.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa
* Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Flamingo to Englewood

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Aucilla River to Anclote River
* Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line
* Saint Johns River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River
* Bonita Beach to Englewood

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee
* North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass
* Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and
the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 83.3 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north
with a slightly slower forward speed is expected on Tuesday. A turn
toward the north-northeast with a further reduction in forward speed
is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian
is expected to move near or over western Cuba tonight and early
Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach
the west coast of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so,
and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane tonight or early
Tuesday when it is near western Cuba, and remain a major hurricane
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa
Bay...5-10 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...5-8 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...5-8 ft
* Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...
4-7 ft
* Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound including
St. Johns River...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
* Aucilla River to Suwannee River...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
* Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet
above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of
onshore winds in the hurricane warning area tonight and early
Tuesday.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in
Cuba tonight. Destructive winds are possible where the core of Ian
moves across western Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida
within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions possibly beginning by Tuesday night. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area by Tuesday evening.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on
Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
area on Wednesday into early Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the
lower Florida Keys and are possible in the watch area in the middle
Florida Keys on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through
Thursday:

* Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.
These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain over western Cuba.
* Florida Keys: 4 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches.
* Coastal Southwest and Southeast Florida: 4 to 6 inches with local
maxima up to 10 inches.
* Central West Florida: 6 to 12 inches, with local maxima up to 20
inches.
* Northeast Florida: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 12
inches.
* Remainder of the Central Florida Peninsula: 4 to 8 inches.

Heavy rainfall is expected to affect the Southeast U.S. Friday and
Saturday. Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding, and
prolonged significant river flooding impacts are likely mid-to-late
week across central and northern Florida, southern Georgia, and
coastal South Carolina. Flash and urban flooding impacts are also
possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the Florida
peninsula through mid week. Limited flooding impacts and rises on
area streams and rivers are also possible over portions of the
Southeast mid-to-late week.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight and Tuesday
across the Florida Keys and the southern/central Florida Peninsula.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast
of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico tonight. Swells are expected to begin affecting
the Florida Keys Tuesday and spread northward along the west coast
of Florida through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 262102 CCA
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 15...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Corrected header

Ian continues to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The
last report from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters around 1630 UTC
found 700-mb flight-level winds of 79 kt. The inner core appears
better organized, and the eyewall structure has greatly improved in
radar imagery from the Cayman Islands. The 18 UTC satellite
classifications from SAB and TAFB were a consensus T4.5/77 kt, but
the continued improvement in satellite structure warrants raising
the initial intensity to 85 kt for this advisory.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain very favorable for
additional intensification during the next 24 h or so, as Ian moves
over the very warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico while the shear remains quite low. The
NHC intensity forecast calls for Ian to become a major hurricane
before it reaches western Cuba early Tuesday. It is then forecast to
reach its peak intensity over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in 36
h. After that, southwesterly shear in association with a deep-layer
trough over the eastern U.S. is forecast to significantly increase
over the hurricane on Wednesday and Thursday, which will likely
disrupt the vertical structure and import drier air into its
circulation. Despite these less favorable conditions, Ian is still
forecast to remain at or near major hurricane strength as it passes
near the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday and Thursday.
The NHC intensity forecast agrees well with the latest IVCN and HCCA
aids.

Ian has made an expected turn toward the north-northwest, and its
initial motion is 330/11 kt. The hurricane will move
north-northwestward to northward over the next day or so as it is
steered by a mid-level ridge to the east. A turn to the
north-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on
Wednesday and Thursday as the center of Ian moves near the west
coast of Florida. The slower forward motion is likely to prolong the
storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts, especially along the west
coast of Florida. The latest track guidance has come into better
agreement on this scenario, although it is noted that small
deviations to the shore-parallel track could have large implications
on the impacts at particular locations along the west coast of
Florida. The NHC track forecast has again been adjusted slightly
eastward at 48-72 h, which follows the latest trends in the global
model guidance and lies near but just west of the multi-model
consensus aids.

Based on the latest forecast and timing of expected impacts,
Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings have been issued along the west
coast of Florida.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash
floods and possible mudslides are expected in portions of western
Cuba beginning this evening and continuing into Tuesday.
Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of Ian moves
across western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge along much
of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning has been
issued, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay
region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by
local officials.

3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area
in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical
storm conditions expected by late Tuesday.

4. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and south
Florida Tuesday, spreading to central and northern Florida Wednesday
and Thursday, potentially causing flash, urban and small stream
flooding. Significant prolonged river flooding is likely across
central Florida.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 20.3N 83.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 21.7N 83.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 23.6N 84.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 25.3N 83.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 26.7N 83.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 27.5N 83.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 28.1N 82.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 30.1N 82.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1800Z 33.5N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 262100 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 15...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Corrected header and next advisory time

...IAN CONTINUES TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY...
...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 83.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas.

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for Anclote River southward
to Flamingo, including Tampa Bay.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for Altamaha Sound to the
Flagler/Volusia County Line, including the St. Johns River.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning from Englewood southward to Flamingo. A Hurricane Watch has
been issued from Bonita Beach to Englewood.

The Hurricane Watch from Englewood to the Anclote River, including
Tampa Bay, has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning. A Hurricane
Watch has been issued from the Anclote River to the Suwannee River.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Suwannee River to
Indian Pass, and from Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound.

The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Grand Cayman and the Tropical Storm Watch for
Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa
* Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Flamingo to Englewood

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Aucilla River to Anclote River
* Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line
* Saint Johns River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River
* Bonita Beach to Englewood

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee
* North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass
* Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to
36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and
the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 83.2 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north
with a slightly slower forward speed is expected on Tuesday. A turn
toward the north-northeast with a further reduction in forward speed
is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian
is expected to move near or over western Cuba tonight and early
Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach
the west coast of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane tonight
or early Tuesday when it is near western Cuba and remain a major
hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

*Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa
Bay...5-10 ft

*Suwannee River to Anclote River...5-8 ft
*Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...5-8 ft
*Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...
4-7 ft
*Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...3-5 ft

*Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound including
St. Johns River...2-4 ft
*East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft

*Aucilla River to Suwannee River...2-4 ft
*Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft

*Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet
above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of
onshore winds in the hurricane warning area tonight and early
Tuesday.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in
Cuba tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by this
evening. Destructive winds are possible where the core of Ian moves
across western Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected within
the tropical storm warning area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida
within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions possibly beginning by Tuesday night. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area by Tuesday evening.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on
Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
area on Wednesday into early Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the
lower Florida Keys and are possible in the watch area in the middle
Florida Keys on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through
Thursday:

Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches, with local maximum of 5
inches, especially along the south coastal region.

Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches.

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain over western Cuba.

Florida Keys: 4 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches

Coastal Southwest and Southeast Florida: 4 to 6 inches with local
maxima up to 10 inches

Central West Florida: 6 to 12 inches, with local maxima up to 20
inches.

Northeast Florida: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 12
inches.

Remainder of the Central Florida Peninsula: 4 to 8 inches.

Heavy rainfall is expected to affect the Southeast U.S. Friday and
Saturday. Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding, and
prolonged significant river flooding impacts are likely mid-to-late
week across central and northern Florida, southern Georgia, and
coastal South Carolina. Flash and urban flooding impacts are also
possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the Florida
peninsula through mid week. Limited flooding impacts and rises on
area streams and rivers are also possible over portions of the
Southeast mid-to-late week.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight and Tuesday
across the Florida Keys and the southern/central Florida Peninsula.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast
of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico tonight. Swells are expected to begin affecting
the Florida Keys Tuesday and spread northward along the west coast
of Florida through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 262057
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Special Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Ian continues to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The
last report from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters around 1630 UTC
found 700-mb flight-level winds of 79 kt. The inner core appears
better organized, and the eyewall structure has greatly improved in
radar imagery from the Cayman Islands. The 18 UTC satellite
classifications from SAB and TAFB were a consensus T4.5/77 kt, but
the continued improvement in satellite structure warrants raising
the initial intensity to 85 kt for this advisory.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain very favorable for
additional intensification during the next 24 h or so, as Ian moves
over the very warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico while the shear remains quite low. The
NHC intensity forecast calls for Ian to become a major hurricane
before it reaches western Cuba early Tuesday. It is then forecast to
reach its peak intensity over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in 36
h. After that, southwesterly shear in association with a deep-layer
trough over the eastern U.S. is forecast to significantly increase
over the hurricane on Wednesday and Thursday, which will likely
disrupt the vertical structure and import drier air into its
circulation. Despite these less favorable conditions, Ian is still
forecast to remain at or near major hurricane strength as it passes
near the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday and Thursday.
The NHC intensity forecast agrees well with the latest IVCN and HCCA
aids.

Ian has made an expected turn toward the north-northwest, and its
initial motion is 330/11 kt. The hurricane will move
north-northwestward to northward over the next day or so as it is
steered by a mid-level ridge to the east. A turn to the
north-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on
Wednesday and Thursday as the center of Ian moves near the west
coast of Florida. The slower forward motion is likely to prolong the
storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts, especially along the west
coast of Florida. The latest track guidance has come into better
agreement on this scenario, although it is noted that small
deviations to the shore-parallel track could have large implications
on the impacts at particular locations along the west coast of
Florida. The NHC track forecast has again been adjusted slightly
eastward at 48-72 h, which follows the latest trends in the global
model guidance and lies near but just west of the multi-model
consensus aids.

Based on the latest forecast and timing of expected impacts,
Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings have been issued along the west
coast of Florida.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash
floods and possible mudslides are expected in portions of western
Cuba beginning this evening and continuing into Tuesday.
Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of Ian moves
across western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge along much
of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning has been
issued, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay
region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by
local officials.

3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area
in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical
storm conditions expected by late Tuesday.

4. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and south
Florida Tuesday, spreading to central and northern Florida Wednesday
and Thursday, potentially causing flash, urban and small stream
flooding. Significant prolonged river flooding is likely across
central Florida.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 20.3N 83.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 21.7N 83.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 23.6N 84.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 25.3N 83.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 26.7N 83.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 27.5N 83.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 28.1N 82.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 30.1N 82.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1800Z 33.5N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 262056
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Special Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...IAN CONTINUES TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY...
...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 83.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas.

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for Anclote River southward
to Flamingo, including Tampa Bay.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for Altamaha Sound to the
Flagler/Volusia County Line, including the St. Johns River.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning from Englewood southward to Flamingo. A Hurricane Watch has
been issued from Bonita Beach to Englewood.

The Hurricane Watch from Englewood to the Anclote River, including
Tampa Bay, has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning. A Hurricane
Watch has been issued from the Anclote River to the Suwannee River.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Suwannee River to
Indian Pass, and from Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound.

The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Grand Cayman and the Tropical Storm Watch for
Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa
* Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Flamingo to Englewood

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Aucilla River to Anclote River
* Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line
* Saint Johns River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River
* Bonita Beach to Englewood

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee
* North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass
* Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to
36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and
the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 83.2 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north
with a slightly slower forward speed is expected on Tuesday. A turn
toward the north-northeast with a further reduction in forward speed
is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian
is expected to move near or over western Cuba tonight and early
Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach
the west coast of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane tonight
or early Tuesday when it is near western Cuba and remain a major
hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

*Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa
Bay...5-10 ft

*Suwannee River to Anclote River...5-8 ft
*Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...5-8 ft
*Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...
4-7 ft
*Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...3-5 ft

*Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound including
St. Johns River...2-4 ft
*East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft

*Aucilla River to Suwannee River...2-4 ft
*Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft

*Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet
above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of
onshore winds in the hurricane warning area tonight and early
Tuesday.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in
Cuba tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by this
evening. Destructive winds are possible where the core of Ian moves
across western Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected within
the tropical storm warning area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida
within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions possibly beginning by Tuesday night. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area by Tuesday evening.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on
Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
area on Wednesday into early Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the
lower Florida Keys and are possible in the watch area in the middle
Florida Keys on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through
Thursday:

Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches, with local maximum of 5
inches, especially along the south coastal region.

Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches.

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain over western Cuba.

Florida Keys: 4 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches

Coastal Southwest and Southeast Florida: 4 to 6 inches with local
maxima up to 10 inches

Central West Florida: 6 to 12 inches, with local maxima up to 20
inches.

Northeast Florida: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 12
inches.

Remainder of the Central Florida Peninsula: 4 to 8 inches.

Heavy rainfall is expected to affect the Southeast U.S. Friday and
Saturday. Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding, and
prolonged significant river flooding impacts are likely mid-to-late
week across central and northern Florida, southern Georgia, and
coastal South Carolina. Flash and urban flooding impacts are also
possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the Florida
peninsula through mid week. Limited flooding impacts and rises on
area streams and rivers are also possible over portions of the
Southeast mid-to-late week.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight and Tuesday
across the Florida Keys and the southern/central Florida Peninsula.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast
of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico tonight. Swells are expected to begin affecting
the Florida Keys Tuesday and spread northward along the west coast
of Florida through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 262055
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
2100 UTC MON SEP 26 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ANCLOTE RIVER SOUTHWARD
TO FLAMINGO...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE
FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE...INCLUDING THE ST. JOHNS RIVER. A
STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE
ANCLOTE RIVER.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM ENGLEWOOD SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM ENGLEWOOD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING
TAMPA BAY...HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO
INDIAN PASS...AND FROM JUPITER INLET TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR GRAND CAYMAN AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA
* ENGLEWOOD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* FLAMINGO TO ENGLEWOOD

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
* ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
* SAINT JOHNS RIVER
* AUCILLA RIVER TO ANCLOTE RIVER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
* BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS
* JUPITER INLET TO ALTAMAHA SOUND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO
36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 83.2W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 83.2W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 83.0W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.7N 83.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.6N 84.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 25.3N 83.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.7N 83.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.5N 83.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.1N 82.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 30.1N 82.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 33.5N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 83.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 261755
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...IAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...
...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 83.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has changed the Hurricane
Warning for Grand Cayman to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Anclote River southward to the Card Sound Bridge
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Englewood southward to Flamingo
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to
36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and
the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian. Additional
watches and warnings may be needed later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 83.0 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north
with a slightly slower forward speed is expected on Tuesday. A turn
toward the north-northeast with a further reduction in forward speed
is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian
is expected to move near or over western Cuba tonight and early
Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach
the west coast of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (135 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane tonight
or early Tuesday when it is near western Cuba and remain a major
hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

*Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa
Bay...5-10 ft
*Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...5-8 ft
*Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...
4-7 ft
*Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...3-5 ft
*East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
*Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet
above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of
onshore winds in the hurricane warning area tonight and early
Tuesday.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Cayman Islands today.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Grand Cayman during
the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected within the
warning area in Cuba tonight, with tropical storm conditions
expected by this evening. Destructive winds are possible where the
core of Ian moves across western Cuba.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac during the next few
hours.

Hurricane conditions are possible along the west coast of Florida
within the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions possibly beginning by Tuesday night.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the
lower Florida Keys and are possible in the watch area in the middle
Florida Keys on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area along the Florida west coast by Tuesday
evening.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through
Thursday:

Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches, with local maximum of 5
inches, especially along the south coastal region.

Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches.

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain over western Cuba.

Florida Keys: 4 to 6 inches.

Central West Florida: 8 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 15
inches.

Remainder of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 8 inches.

Heavy rainfall is expected to affect North Florida, eastern portions
of the Florida Panhandle, and portions of the Southeastern U.S.
Friday and Saturday.

Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding impacts are likely mid-to-late week in
central Florida given already saturated conditions. Flash and urban
flooding impacts are also possible with rainfall across the Florida
Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid-week. Limited flooding
impacts and rises on area streams and rivers are also possible over
northern Florida and portions of the Southeast mid-to-late week.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight and Tuesday
across the Florida Keys and the southern and central Florida
Peninsula.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast
of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico tonight. Swells are expected to begin affecting
the Florida Keys Tuesday and spread northward along the west coast
of Florida through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 261543 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 14...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Corrected storm name in wind hazard section.

...IAN FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...
...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 82.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for the west coast of Florida has been
extended from Chokoloskee southward to Flamingo.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from
Seven Mile Bridge eastward to the Channel 5 Bridge in the Middle
Keys.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Anclote River southward to the Card Sound Bridge
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Englewood southward to Flamingo
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to
36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and
the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian. Additional
watches may be need later today farther north along the west coast
of Florida.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 82.7 West. Ian is moving toward
the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A north-northwestward motion is
expected to begin later today, followed by a northward motion on
Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. A turn toward the
north-northeast with a further reduction in forward speed is
forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is
expected to pass near or west of the Cayman Islands today, and near
or over western Cuba tonight and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, pass west of the
Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on
Wednesday into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane tonight
or early Tuesday when it is near western Cuba and remain a major
hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

*Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa
Bay...5-10 ft
*Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...5-8 ft
*Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...
4-7 ft
*Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...3-5 ft
*East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
*Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet
above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of
onshore winds in the hurricane warning area tonight and early
Tuesday.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Cayman Islands today.

WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected on Grand
Cayman today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area in Cuba tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected
by late today. Destructive winds are possible where the core of Ian
moves across western Cuba.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac today.

Hurricane conditions are possible along the west coast of Florida
within the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions possibly beginning by Tuesday night.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the
lower Florida Keys and are possible in the watch area in the middle
Florida Keys on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area along the Florida west coast by Tuesday
evening.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through
Thursday:

Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches, with local maximum of 5
inches, especially along the south coastal region.

Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches.

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain over western Cuba.

Florida Keys: 4 to 6 inches.

Central West Florida: 8 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 15
inches.

Remainder of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 8 inches.

Heavy rainfall is expected to affect North Florida, eastern portions
of the Florida Panhandle, and portions of the Southeastern U.S.
Friday and Saturday.

Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding impacts are likely mid-to-late week in
central Florida given already saturated conditions. Flash and urban
flooding impacts are also possible with rainfall across the Florida
Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid-week. Limited flooding
impacts and rises on area streams and rivers are also possible over
northern Florida and portions of the Southeast mid-to-late week.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight and Tuesday
across the Florida Keys and the southern and central Florida
Peninsula.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast
of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico today and tonight. Swells are expected to begin
affecting the Florida Keys Tuesday and spread northward along the
west coast of Florida through Wednesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 261457
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

The satellite presentation of Ian has improved this morning. Deep
convection has increased within the inner core during the past
several hours, with an expanding central dense overcast noted in
recent satellite imagery. The inner core structure continues to take
shape in radar data, although the eyewall still has a banded
appearance and remains open on the west side. Dropsonde data from
the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
minimum pressure has gradually fallen to about 980 mb, and the
initial intensity is raised slightly to 70 kt for this advisory.

The intensity of Ian has increased by 30 kt during the past 18 h.
Further rapid intensification (RI) is expected during the next 24-36
h as Ian crosses the high oceanic heat content of the northwestern
Caribbean Sea within a very low vertical wind shear (VWS)
environment. The latest SHIPS-RI probabilities continue to highlight
the high likelihood of this scenario, with a 73 percent chance of a
35-kt wind speed increase in 24 h and a 79 percent chance of a 45-kt
increase in 36 h. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one, and it shows Ian becoming a major hurricane by the
time it reaches western Cuba. Ian is forecast to reach its peak
intensity in 36 h over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Then,
increasing southwesterly shear by 36-48 h is expected to bring an
end to the intensification phase. The combination of strong VWS and
drier mid-level air will induce weakening thereafter, but Ian is
expected to remain at or near major hurricane strength as it passes
near the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday and Thursday.

Ian continues to move northwestward at 325/11 kt. A turn toward the
north-northwest and north is expected during the next day or so as
the hurricane moves around the western extent of a mid-level ridge.
Then, an upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. should cause Ian
to turn more north-northeastward through Thursday. This track brings
the center of Ian close to the west-central coast of Florida during
the middle of the week. An even greater concern is the slower
forward motion that is forecast during this period, as the upper
trough passes north and east of Ian and the steering currents
weaken. This would likely prolong the storm surge, wind, and
rainfall impacts along the affected portions of the west coast of
Florida, although the roughly shore-parallel track still makes it
difficult to pinpoint exactly what locations will experience the
most severe impacts. The track guidance has come into better
agreement during the first 72 h of the forecast period, and only a
minor eastward adjustment was made to the NHC track forecast in line
with the multi-model consensus aids.

The aircraft data indicate that the 34-kt wind radii in the
northeastern quadrant were 20-30 n mi larger than previously
estimated, and this has been reflected in the latest forecast.
Based on these changes, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for
the middle Florida Keys and extended southward along the
southwestern coast of Florida.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash
floods and possible mudslides are expected in portions of western
Cuba beginning this evening and continuing into Tuesday.
Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of Ian moves
across western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

2. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along much of the
Florida west coast, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the
Tampa Bay region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice
given by local officials.

3. Hurricane-force winds are possible in the hurricane watch area
in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical
storm conditions possible by late Tuesday. Residents in this area
should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and south
Florida Tuesday, spreading to central and northern Florida Wednesday
and Thursday, potentially causing flash, urban and small stream
flooding. Significant prolonged river flooding is likely across
central Florida.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 82.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 20.7N 83.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 22.7N 84.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 24.5N 84.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 26.1N 83.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 27.2N 83.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 28.0N 83.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 29.8N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1200Z 32.8N 82.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 261456
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...
...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 82.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for the west coast of Florida has been
extended from Chokoloskee southward to Flamingo.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from
Seven Mile Bridge eastward to the Channel 5 Bridge in the Middle
Keys.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Anclote River southward to the Card Sound Bridge
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Englewood southward to Flamingo
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to
36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and
the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian. Additional
watches may be need later today farther north along the west coast
of Florida.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 82.7 West. Ian is moving toward
the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A north-northwestward motion is
expected to begin later today, followed by a northward motion on
Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. A turn toward the
north-northeast with a further reduction in forward speed is
forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is
expected to pass near or west of the Cayman Islands today, and near
or over western Cuba tonight and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, pass west of the
Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on
Wednesday into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane tonight
or early Tuesday when it is near western Cuba and remain a major
hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

*Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa
Bay...5-10 ft
*Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...5-8 ft
*Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...
4-7 ft
*Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...3-5 ft
*East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
*Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet
above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of
onshore winds in the hurricane warning area tonight and early
Tuesday.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Cayman Islands today.

WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected on Grand
Cayman today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area in Cuba tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected
by late today. Destructive winds are possible where the core of Ida
moves across western Cuba.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac today.

Hurricane conditions are possible along the west coast of Florida
within the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions possibly beginning by Tuesday night.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the
lower Florida Keys and are possible in the watch area in the middle
Florida Keys on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area along the Florida west coast by Tuesday
evening.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through
Thursday:

Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches, with local maximum of 5
inches, especially along the south coastal region.

Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches.

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain over western Cuba.

Florida Keys: 4 to 6 inches.

Central West Florida: 8 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 15
inches.

Remainder of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 8 inches.

Heavy rainfall is expected to affect North Florida, eastern portions
of the Florida Panhandle, and portions of the Southeastern U.S.
Friday and Saturday.

Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding impacts are likely mid-to-late week in
central Florida given already saturated conditions. Flash and urban
flooding impacts are also possible with rainfall across the Florida
Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid-week. Limited flooding
impacts and rises on area streams and rivers are also possible over
northern Florida and portions of the Southeast mid-to-late week.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight and Tuesday
across the Florida Keys and the southern and central Florida
Peninsula.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast
of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico today and tonight. Swells are expected to begin
affecting the Florida Keys Tuesday and spread northward along the
west coast of Florida through Wednesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 261456
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
1500 UTC MON SEP 26 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED FROM CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EASTWARD TO THE CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE IN THE MIDDLE
KEYS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
* ANCLOTE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE
* TAMPA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENGLEWOOD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* ENGLEWOOD SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO
36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES MAY BE NEED LATER TODAY FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 82.7W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 82.7W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 82.4W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.7N 83.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.7N 84.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.5N 84.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.1N 83.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.2N 83.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.0N 83.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 50SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 29.8N 82.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 32.8N 82.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 82.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 26/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 261155
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...ADDITIONAL RAPID STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY...
...IAN WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS IN
WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 82.4W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Anclote River southward to the Card Sound Bridge
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Englewood southward to Chokoloskee

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to
36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and
the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian. Additional
watches may be need later today farther north along the west coast
of Florida.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 82.4 West. Ian is moving toward
the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected later today, followed by a northward
motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. A turn
toward the north-northeast is forecast on Tuesday night or early
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to
pass near or west of the Cayman Islands today, and near or over
western Cuba tonight and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida
Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so,
and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane tonight when it is
near western Cuba.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches)
based on dropsonde data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunters.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

*Anclote River to Englewood, FL including Tampa Bay... 5-8 ft
*Englewood to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor... 4-7 ft
*Bonita Beach to East Cape Sable, FL... 3-5 ft
*East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida Bay...
2-4 ft
*Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas... 2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet
above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of
onshore winds in the hurricane warning area tonight and early
Tuesday.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Cayman Islands today.

WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected on Grand
Cayman today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area in Cuba tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected
by late today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the
lower Florida Keys on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area along the Florida west coast by
Tuesday evening. Hurricane conditions are possible along the
Florida West coast within the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday,
with tropical storm conditions possibly beginning by Tuesday
night.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through
Thursday:

Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches.

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.

Florida Keys: 4 to 6 inches.

Central West Florida: 8 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 15
inches.

Remainder of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 8 inches.

Heavy rainfall is expected to affect North Florida, eastern portions
of the Florida Panhandle, and portions of the Southeast, and Mid
Atlantic regions Friday and Saturday.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain over western Cuba. Considerable flooding impacts are
possible mid-to-late week in central Florida given already saturated
antecedent conditions, and flash and urban flooding is possible with
rainfall across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through
mid week. Limited flood impacts and rises on area streams and rivers
are possible over northern Florida and portions of the Southeast
mid-to-late week.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight and Tuesday
across the Florida Keys and the southern and central Florida
Peninsula.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast
of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico today and tonight. Swell are expected to begin
affecting the Florida Keys Tuesday and spread northward along the
west coast of Florida through Wednesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 260858
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Satellite imagery shows that Ian has quickly become better organized
overnight. Banding has increased in all quadrants of the storm, and
the eye has become much better defined in radar data from Grand
Cayman. The improving eye structure was also reported by an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that was in the storm
overnight. During a single pass through the northeastern portion
of the storm the plane measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 71
kt and SFMR winds of 57 kt. Given the continued increase in
organization and drop in central pressure on the latest center fix,
the initial intensity has been increased to 65 kt, making Ian the
fourth hurricane of the 2022 hurricane season. The latest center
drop from the aircraft supported a minimum pressure of 983 mb.

In addition to the development of an inner core, the upper-level
outflow over the storm has expanded overnight. Ian will be
traversing the warm waters (30 degrees C) of the northwestern
Caribbean and remain within very low shear conditions today. These
very conducive environmental factors along with the improved
structure of the storm are likely to result in rapid intensification
today, and Ian is forecast to be a major hurricane when it moves
near or over western Cuba tonight. This is supported by the
majority of the intensity guidance, and the SHIPS Rapid
Intensification (RI) Index that gives a 90 percent chance of a
30 kt increase in wind speed over the next 24 hours, and about a 60
percent chance of a 40 kt increase in wind speed during that same
period. Ian is not expected to spend much time over western Cuba,
and additional strengthening is likely over the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico on Tuesday. Around 60 hours, a sharp increase in
southwesterly vertical wind shear and a drier mid-level environment
to the northwest of Ian is likely to induce some weakening.
Despite the reduction in intensity, Ian is likely to have an
expanding wind field and will be slowing down by that time, which
will have the potential to produce significant wind and storm surge
impacts along the west coast of Florida.

The initial motion estimate is 325/12 kt. Ian is expected to turn
northward around the western side of a mid-level ridge during the
next day or so. Later in the period, a broad trough over the
eastern United States is forecast to induce a north-northeastward
motion, however the steering currents are forecast to weaken
around day 3, and a slower forward speed is expected by that time.
Although the track guidance is in good agreement during the first
48 hours, there is still significant spread after that time. The
UKMET and ECWMF are still on the eastern side of the guidance and
show a track very near or over the west-central coast of Florida
while the GFS, HWRF, and HMON, and GFS ensemble mean are on the
western side with a track toward Appalachia Bay. The NHC track
forecast remains close to the TVCA multi-model consensus aid, and
is very similar to the previous official forecast. It should again
be stressed that there is still significant uncertainty in the track
of Ian, especially in the 3-5 day time frame, and users should not
focus on the details of the track forecast at longer time ranges.


Key Messages:

1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of
flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Considerable flooding impacts
are possible later this week in west central Florida. Additional
flash and urban flooding, and flooding on rivers across the Florida
Peninsula and parts of the Southeast cannot be ruled out for later
this week.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are
expected in portions of western Cuba beginning late today, and
Ian is forecast to be at major hurricane strength when it is near
western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

3. Ian is expected to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico during the middle of this week. Regardless of Ian?--s exact
track and intensity, there is a risk of a life-threatening storm
surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west
coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of this
week. Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches have been issued for a
portion of the west coast of Florida and additional watches may be
required later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 18.2N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 19.7N 83.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 21.7N 83.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 23.6N 84.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 25.3N 84.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 26.7N 83.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 27.7N 83.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 29.2N 83.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 32.0N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 260854
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...IAN BECOMES A HURRICANE AND ADDITIONAL RAPID STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED TODAY...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS
IN WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 82.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued along the west coast of Florida
from north of Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward along the west
coast of Florida to the Anclote River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Anclote River southward to the Card Sound Bridge,
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Englewood southward to Chokoloskee

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to
36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and
the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.
Additional watches may be need later today farther north along the
west coast of Florida.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 82.0 West. Ian is moving toward
the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected today followed by a northward
motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. A turn
toward the north-northeast is forecast on Tuesday night or early
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected
to pass near or west of the Cayman Islands today, and near or
over western Cuba tonight and early Tuesday. Ian will then
emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and pass
west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast
of Florida on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane tonight
when it is near western Cuba.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

*Anclote River to Englewood, FL including Tampa Bay... 5-8 ft
*Englewood to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor... 4-7 ft
*Bonita Beach to East Cape Sable, FL... 3-5 ft
*East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida Bay...
2-4 ft
*Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas... 2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet
above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas
of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area Monday night
and early Tuesday.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected on Grand
Cayman today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area in Cuba tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected
by late today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the
lower Florida Keys on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area along the Florida west coast by
Tuesday evening. Hurricane conditions are possible along the
Florida West coast within the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday,
with tropical storm conditions possibly beginning by Tuesday
night.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through
Thursday:

Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches.

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.

Florida Keys: 4 to 6 inches.

Central West Florida: 8 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 15
inches.

Remainder of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 8 inches.

Heavy rainfall is expected to affect North Florida, eastern portions
of the Florida Panhandle, and portions of the Southeast, and Mid
Atlantic regions Friday and Saturday.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain over western Cuba. Considerable flooding impacts are
possible mid-to-late week in central Florida given already saturated
antecedent conditions, and flash and urban flooding is possible with
rainfall across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through
mid week. Limited flood impacts and rises on area streams and rivers
are possible over northern Florida and portions of the Southeast
mid-to-late week.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late Monday night and
Tuesday across the Florida Keys and the southern and central
Florida Peninsula.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast
of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico today and tonight. Swell are expected to begin
affecting the Florida Keys Tuesday and spread northward along the
west coast of Florida through Wednesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 260853
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
0900 UTC MON SEP 26 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
* ANCLOTE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE...* TAMPA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENGLEWOOD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* ENGLEWOOD SOUTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO
36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE NEED LATER TODAY FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 82.0W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 30SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 82.0W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 81.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.7N 83.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.7N 83.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.6N 84.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 25.3N 84.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.7N 83.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.7N 83.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...210NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 29.2N 83.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 32.0N 82.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 82.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 26/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 260549
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TODAY...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS
IN WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 81.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Englewood southward to the Card Sound Bridge
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Englewood southward to Chokoloskee

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to
36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and
the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 81.7 West. Ian is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northwest is expected today followed by a northward
motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. A turn
toward the north-northeast is forecast on Tuesday night or early
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected
to pass near or west of the Cayman Islands today, and near or
over western Cuba tonight and early Tuesday. Ian will then
emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and pass
west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast
of Florida on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so. Ian is expected to become a hurricane this morning and
a major hurricane by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter observations is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected on Grand
Cayman today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area in Cuba Monday night, with tropical storm conditions expected
by late today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the
lower Florida Keys on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area along the Florida west coast by
Tuesday evening.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Jamaica: Additional 1-3 inches, with storm total local maxima up to
8 inches.

Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches.

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.

Florida Keys into southern and central Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4
inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches through Wednesday evening.

Heavy rainfall may affect North Florida, the Florida Panhandle and
portions of the Southeast on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Considerable
flooding impacts are possible later this week in west central
Florida given already saturated antecedent conditions, and flash and
urban flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and
the Florida peninsula through mid week. Additional flooding and
rises on area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts
of the Southeast later this week cannot be ruled out.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Englewood to Bonita Beach, FL... 4-7 ft
* Bonita Beach to East Cape Sable, FL... 3-5 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida Bay...
2-4 ft
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas... 2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet
above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas
of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area Monday night
and early Tuesday.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast
of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico today and tonight. Swell are expected to begin
affecting the Florida Keys Tuesday and spread northward along the
west coast of Florida through Wednesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 260300
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

The storm has become better organized-looking on satellite imagery,
with strengthening central convection and developing banding
features. Upper-level anticyclonic outflow also appears to be
increasing over the system. Flight-level winds, Doppler radar
velocities, and dropsonde data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Ian's intensity is now near 55 kt.

Ian has turned toward the northwest and the initial motion estimate
is now 315/11 kt. During the next 48 hours, the tropical cyclone
is expected to turn toward the north as it moves along the western
side of a mid-level high pressure area. Later in the forecast
period, a broad mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United
States is likely to induce a slightly east of northward motion.
However, around 4 days, the steering currents are forecast to
weaken as the trough moves to the east of Ian's longitude. Some
of the guidance model tracks such as that from the GFS have, again,
shifted to the east, mainly after 48 hours. The official track
forecast has been shifted somewhat to the east of the previous one
and is mainly a blend of the latest ECMWF and GFS predictions. It
should again be stressed that there is still significant
uncertainty in the track of Ian, especially in the 3-5 day time
frame. Users should not focus on the details of the track forecast
at longer time ranges.

Observations from the aircraft indicate that the tropical cyclone
is developing an inner core, so significant intensification is
likely to occur during the next couple of days. The SHIPS Rapid
Intensification Index indicate a fairly high chance for rapid
strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours, and the official
forecast reflects this likelihood, calling for Ian to become a
major hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of
flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Considerable flooding impacts
are possible later this week in west central Florida. Additional
flash and urban flooding, and flooding on rivers across the Florida
Peninsula and parts of the Southeast cannot be ruled out for later
this week.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are
expected in portions of western Cuba beginning late Monday, and Ian
is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it is
near western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

3. Ian is expected to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico during the middle of this week, but uncertainty in the track
and intensity forecasts remains higher than usual. Regardless of
Ian?--s exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous storm
surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west
coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of this
week, and residents in Florida should ensure they have their
hurricane plan in place. Follow any advice given by local officials
and closely monitor updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 17.3N 81.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 18.7N 82.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 20.8N 83.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 22.7N 84.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 24.7N 84.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 26.2N 83.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 27.6N 83.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 29.0N 83.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 32.0N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 260253
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...IAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS
IN WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 81.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the lower Florida Keys
from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West, including the Dry
Tortugas.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from the
Card Sound Bridge westward to Key west, including the Dry Tortugas,
and for the west coast of Florida from Englewood southward to the
Card Sound Bridge, including Florida Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of
Florida from Englewood southward to Chokoloskee.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Englewood southward to the Card Sound
Bridge
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Englewood southward to Chokoloskee

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and
the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 81.4 West. Ian is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northwest is expected on Monday followed by a northward
motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. On the
forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to pass near or west
of the Cayman Islands on Monday, and near or over western Cuba
Monday night and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast tonight,
followed by more rapid strengthening on Monday and Tuesday. Ian is
forecast to become a hurricane by early Monday and a major
hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
observations is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman on
Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by
early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late
Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac on Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the
lower Florida Keys on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area along the Florida west coast by
Tuesday evening.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Jamaica: Additional 1-3 inches, with storm total local maxima up to
8 inches.

Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches.

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.

Florida Keys into southern and central Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4
inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches beginning Monday through
Wednesday evening.

Heavy rainfall may affect North Florida, the Florida Panhandle and
portions of the Southeast on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Considerable
flooding impacts are possible later this week in west central
Florida given already saturated antecedent conditions, and flash and
urban flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and
the Florida peninsula through mid week. Additional flooding and
rises on area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts
of the Southeast later this week cannot be ruled out.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Englewood to Bonita Beach, FL... 4-7 ft
* Bonita Beach to East Cape Sable, FL... 3-5 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida Bay...
2-4 ft
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas... 2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet
above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas
of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area Monday night
and early Tuesday.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast
of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Monday and Monday night. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 260253
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
0300 UTC MON SEP 26 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD
SOUTHWARD TO THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD SOUTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD SOUTHWARD TO THE CARD SOUND
BRIDGE
* FLORIDA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* ENGLEWOOD SOUTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 81.4W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 81.4W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 80.9W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.7N 82.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.8N 83.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.7N 84.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.7N 84.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.2N 83.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.6N 83.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 29.0N 83.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 32.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 81.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 26/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 252357
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...IAN STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS
IN WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 80.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge southward to Key West,
including the Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and
the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 80.8 West. Ian is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northwest is expected on Monday followed by a northward
motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. On the
forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to pass near or west
of the Cayman Islands on Monday, and near or over western Cuba
Monday night and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast tonight,
followed by more rapid strengthening on Monday and Tuesday. Ian is
forecast to become a hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman on
Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by
early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late
Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac on Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the lower Florida Keys by
Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up
to 8 inches.

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.

Florida Keys into southern and central Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4
inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches beginning Monday through
Wednesday morning.

Heavy rainfall may affect North Florida, the Florida Panhandle and
the Southeast Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban
flooding are possible across the Florida Keys and the Florida
peninsula through mid week. Additional flooding and rises on
area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the
southeast U.S. later this week cannot be ruled out, especially in
central Florida given already saturated conditions.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft
Florida Keys, FL including Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Florida Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet
above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas
of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area Monday night
and early Tuesday.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast
of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Monday and Monday night. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 252057
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
2100 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE SOUTHWARD TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE SOUTHWARD TO KEY
WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 80.3W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 80.3W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 80.0W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.3N 81.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.2N 82.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.1N 83.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.0N 84.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.8N 84.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.2N 84.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 28.3N 84.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 31.0N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 80.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 26/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 252057
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

The organization of Ian has not changed much since this morning.
There have been some small bursts of convection closer to the center
of the storm this afternoon, but the activity has not yet led to any
notable changes in its structure. In fact, the most persistent
convection has been in outer rainbands well to the northeast of the
circulation near Jamaica. The SFMR wind data and adjusted
flight-level winds from the earlier reconnaissance flights supported
surface winds of 35-40 kt, and the initial intensity is set at 40 kt
for this advisory. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Ian later tonight.

The center of Ian has jogged a bit northward this afternoon, but its
longer-term motion is west-northwestward at 300/10 kt. A generally
northwestward motion is expected tonight, followed by a
north-northwestward motion on Monday and early Tuesday as it moves
across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and near or over western Cuba.
From there, the track guidance still diverges at days 3-5 as Ian is
forecast to move northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The
ECMWF and UKMET models still lie on the eastern edge of the guidance
and bring the center of Ian over the coast of west-central Florida,
while the HWRF and HMON models are on the western side of the
envelope and show Ian approaching the central Florida panhandle.
Notably, the GFS has trended slightly eastward for the past few
cycles, which has brought the multi-model consensus aids a bit
eastward as well. The latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted in
this direction, but only on the order of 15-20 n mi in the extended
range. Users are reminded not to focus on the details of the track
forecast at longer time ranges, since uncertainty is still high and
future adjustments may be required.

Although the storm has yet to develop an inner core, the conditions
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea appear very likely to support
strengthening once it becomes better organized. Some dry
environmental air may have limited convection today, but the GFS-
and ECMWF-simulated satellite imagery indicate that deep convection
will increase during the diurnal maximum period overnight. Then,
significant strengthening is expected with low deep-layer shear and
high oceanic heat content along the forecast track. There is still
strong support for rapid intensification in the latest intensity
guidance, and the NHC intensity forecast shows Ian becoming a
hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane on Tuesday. This forecast
remains close to the IVCN multi-model consensus, with some model
aids including HCCA showing even higher peak intensities. Strong
southwesterly shear develops over Ian by 72 h related to interaction
with an upper-level trough, and the structure of the cyclone could
significantly degrade before landfall given these hostile
conditions. However, Ian is likely to have an expanding wind field
and will be slowing down by that time, which will have the potential
to produce significant wind and storm surge impacts across portions
of the Florida west coast and the Florida panhandle.


Key Messages:

1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over
Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding is possible with
rainfall across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through
the middle of the week. Additional flooding on rivers across
northern Florida and parts of the southeast U.S. cannot be ruled out
later this week.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are
expected in portions of western Cuba beginning late Monday, and Ian
is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it is
near western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

3. Ian is expected to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico during the middle of this week, but uncertainty in the track
and intensity forecasts remains higher than usual. Regardless of
Ian?--s exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous storm
surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west
coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of this
week, and residents in Florida should ensure they have their
hurricane plan in place. Follow any advice given by local officials
and closely monitor updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 16.2N 80.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 17.3N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 19.2N 82.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 21.1N 83.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 23.0N 84.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 24.8N 84.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 26.2N 84.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 28.3N 84.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 31.0N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 252057
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS
IN WESTERN CUBA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 80.3W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the lower Florida Keys
from Seven Mile Bridge southward to Key West, including the Dry
Tortugas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge southward to Key West,
including the Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and
the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 80.3 West. Ian is moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected tonight, followed by a north-northwestward
motion on Monday and a northward motion on Tuesday with a slightly
slower forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is
expected to pass near or west of the Cayman Islands on Monday, and
near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday. Ian will
then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast tonight, followed by more rapid
strengthening on Monday and Tuesday. Ian is forecast to become a
hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman on
Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected early Tuesday.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by
early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late
Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac on Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the lower Florida Keys by
Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up
to 8 inches.

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.

Florida Keys into southern and central Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4
inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches beginning Monday through
Wednesday morning.

Heavy rainfall may affect North Florida, the Florida Panhandle and
the Southeast Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban
flooding are possible across the Florida Keys and the Florida
peninsula through mid week. Additional flooding and rises on
area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the
southeast U.S. later this week cannot be ruled out, especially in
central Florida given already saturated conditions.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft
Florida Keys, FL including Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Florida Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet
above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas
of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area Monday night
and early Tuesday.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast
of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Monday and Monday night. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 251753
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING TONIGHT...
...SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED IN WESTERN
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 80.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 80.0 West. Ian is moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected this evening, followed by a
north-northwestward motion on Monday and a northward motion on
Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. On the forecast track,
the center of Ian is expected to pass well southwest of Jamaica this
evening, and pass near or west of the Cayman Islands early Monday.
Ian will then move near or over western Cuba Monday night and early
Tuesday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid strengthening is forecast to begin tonight. Ian is expected to
become a hurricane by early Monday and reach major hurricane
strength Monday night or early Tuesday before it reaches western
Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected later tonight.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by
early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late
Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac by tonight
or early Monday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up
to 8 inches.

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.

Florida Keys into southern and central Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4
inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches beginning Monday through
Wednesday morning.

Heavy rainfall may affect north Florida, the Florida panhandle and
the southeast United States Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban
flooding are possible across the Florida Keys and the Florida
peninsula through mid week. Additional flooding and rises on
area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the
southeast U.S. later this week cannot be ruled out, especially in
central Florida given already saturated conditions.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9
to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba
in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area Monday night
and early Tuesday.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast
of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Monday and Monday night. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 251521 CCA
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 10...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Corrected timing of Ian becoming a hurricane in the intensity
discussion below to tonight or early Monday.

The satellite presentation of Ian is gradually improving this
morning. The overall circulation appears better defined in visible
satellite imagery, and fragmented bands of convection around the
center are showing increased signs of curvature. The low-level
center of Ian also appears better defined in the latest data
collected by the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Although the
vortex is still vertically tilted, tail Doppler radar data suggest
the low- and mid-level centers are beginning to converge. An earlier
center dropsonde indicated the minimum pressure dropped slightly to
1001 mb, but the aircraft winds thus far have not reflected any
strengthening. Therefore, initial intensity for this advisory is
held at 45 kt.

The latest fixes suggest Ian is beginning to make its turn around
the western side of the subtropical ridge, and the initial motion
is west-northwestward at 290/12 kt. A gradual turn to the northwest
is expected later today as the cyclone passes well southwest of
Jamaica, followed by a north-northwestward motion that brings the
center of Ian west of the Cayman Islands on Monday and near or over
western Cuba by early Tuesday. There is relatively high confidence
in this portion of the track forecast. However, once the cyclone
emerges over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the spread in the
track guidance increases at days 3-5. The HWRF and GFS still lie on
the western side of the guidance envelope and show Ian moving over
the central or western Florida panhandle, while the ECMWF and UKMET
models show a track farther east into west-central Florida. Overall,
the NHC track forecast remains near the center of the guidance
envelope and still lies very near the TVCA multi-model consensus.
However, there is still significant uncertainty in the long-range
track forecast of Ian, and future adjustments to this portion of the
forecast will likely be required.

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea appear very conducive for significant strengthening.
So once Ian becomes more organized, the high oceanic heat content
and low vertical shear conditions appear likely to support rapid
intensification. The Deterministic to Probabilistic Statistical
Rapid Intensification Index (DTOPS) still shows a greater than 90
percent chance of rapid strengthening during the next 2-3 days. The
intensity guidance remains very aggressive with strengthening Ian,
and the NHC forecast reflects this potential. Ian is expected to
become a hurricane by tonight or early Monday, and is forecast to
reach major hurricane strength before it reaches western Cuba. This
forecast lies very near the latest SHIPS guidance and the IVCN aid.
By day 4, a significant increase in southwesterly shear is forecast
by the global models, and this is forecast to induce some weakening
as the vertical structure of the hurricane is disrupted. Despite
this, Ian is likely to have an expanding wind field and will be
slowing down by that time, which will have the potential to produce
significant wind and storm surge impacts across portions of the
Florida west coast and the Florida panhandle.

Key Messages:

1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over
Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding is possible across the
Florida Keys and Florida peninsula through mid week. Additional
flooding on rivers across northern Florida and parts of the
southeast U.S. cannot be ruled out later this week.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are
expected in portions of western Cuba beginning late Monday, where
a hurricane warning is now in effect. Efforts to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

3. Ian is expected to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico during the middle of the week, but uncertainty in the
long-term track and intensity forecasts is higher than usual.
Regardless of Ian?--s exact track and intensity, there is a risk of
dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall
along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the
middle of the week, and residents in Florida should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by
local officials, and closely monitor updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 15.2N 79.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 16.5N 81.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 18.1N 82.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 20.1N 83.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 22.0N 84.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 23.9N 84.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 25.5N 84.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 28.0N 84.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 30.3N 83.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 251458
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

The satellite presentation of Ian is gradually improving this
morning. The overall circulation appears better defined in visible
satellite imagery, and fragmented bands of convection around the
center are showing increased signs of curvature. The low-level
center of Ian also appears better defined in the latest data
collected by the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Although the
vortex is still vertically tilted, tail Doppler radar data suggest
the low- and mid-level centers are beginning to converge. An earlier
center dropsonde indicated the minimum pressure dropped slightly to
1001 mb, but the aircraft winds thus far have not reflected any
strengthening. Therefore, initial intensity for this advisory is
held at 45 kt.

The latest fixes suggest Ian is beginning to make its turn around
the western side of the subtropical ridge, and the initial motion
is west-northwestward at 290/12 kt. A gradual turn to the northwest
is expected later today as the cyclone passes well southwest of
Jamaica, followed by a north-northwestward motion that brings the
center of Ian west of the Cayman Islands on Monday and near or over
western Cuba by early Tuesday. There is relatively high confidence
in this portion of the track forecast. However, once the cyclone
emerges over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the spread in the
track guidance increases at days 3-5. The HWRF and GFS still lie on
the western side of the guidance envelope and show Ian moving over
the central or western Florida panhandle, while the ECMWF and UKMET
models show a track farther east into west-central Florida. Overall,
the NHC track forecast remains near the center of the guidance
envelope and still lies very near the TVCA multi-model consensus.
However, there is still significant uncertainty in the long-range
track forecast of Ian, and future adjustments to this portion of the
forecast will likely be required.

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea appear very conducive for significant strengthening.
So once Ian becomes more organized, the high oceanic heat content
and low vertical shear conditions appear likely to support rapid
intensification. The Deterministic to Probabilistic Statistical
Rapid Intensification Index (DTOPS) still shows a greater than 90
percent chance of rapid strengthening during the next 2-3 days. The
intensity guidance remains very aggressive with strengthening Ian,
and the NHC forecast reflects this potential. Ian is expected to
become a hurricane by tonight or early Tuesday, and is forecast to
reach major hurricane strength before it reaches western Cuba. This
forecast lies very near the latest SHIPS guidance and the IVCN aid.
By day 4, a significant increase in southwesterly shear is forecast
by the global models, and this is forecast to induce some weakening
as the vertical structure of the hurricane is disrupted. Despite
this, Ian is likely to have an expanding wind field and will be
slowing down by that time, which will have the potential to produce
significant wind and storm surge impacts across portions of the
Florida west coast and the Florida panhandle.

Key Messages:

1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over
Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding is possible across the
Florida Keys and Florida peninsula through mid week. Additional
flooding on rivers across northern Florida and parts of the
southeast U.S. cannot be ruled out later this week.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are
expected in portions of western Cuba beginning late Monday, where
a hurricane warning is now in effect. Efforts to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

3. Ian is expected to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico during the middle of the week, but uncertainty in the
long-term track and intensity forecasts is higher than usual.
Regardless of Ian?--s exact track and intensity, there is a risk of
dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall
along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the
middle of the week, and residents in Florida should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by
local officials, and closely monitor updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 15.2N 79.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 16.5N 81.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 18.1N 82.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 20.1N 83.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 22.0N 84.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 23.9N 84.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 25.5N 84.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 28.0N 84.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 30.3N 83.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 251455
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA WHERE SIGNIFICANT WIND
AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 79.8W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a
Hurricane Warning for the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar
del Rio, and Artemisa, and upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of La Habana,
Mayabeque, and Matanzas.

The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Watch for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 79.8 West. Ian is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest at a similar forward speed is expected later today,
followed by a north-northwestward motion on Monday and a northward
motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. On the
forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to pass well southwest
of Jamaica today, and pass near or west of the Cayman Islands early
Monday. Ian will then move near or over western Cuba Monday night
and early Tuesday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid strengthening is forecast to begin later today or tonight. Ian
is expected to become a hurricane tonight or early Monday and reach
major hurricane strength Monday night or early Tuesday before it
reaches western Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected later tonight.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by
early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late
Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up
to 8 inches.

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.

Florida Keys into southern and central Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4
inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches beginning Monday through
Wednesday morning.

Heavy rainfall may affect north Florida, the Florida panhandle and
the southeast United States Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban
flooding are possible across the Florida Keys and the Florida
peninsula through mid week. Additional flooding and rises on
area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the
southeast U.S. later this week cannot be ruled out, especially in
central Florida given already saturated conditions.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9
to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba
in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area Monday night
and early Tuesday.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and will
spread to the Cayman Islands later today. Swells will then spread
northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the coasts of
Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Monday and
Monday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 251455
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS UPGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...
PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA...AND UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...
MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 79.8W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 79.8W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 79.4W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.5N 81.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.1N 82.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N 83.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.0N 84.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.9N 84.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.5N 84.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 28.0N 84.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 30.3N 83.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 79.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 25/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 251155
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY...
...RISK OF SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS INCREASING FOR
WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 79.4W
ABOUT 320 MI...550 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 79.4 West. Ian is moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest at a similar forward speed is expected later today,
followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Monday and north on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to
pass well southwest of Jamaica today, and pass near or west of the
Cayman Islands early Monday. Ian will then move near or over
western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday and emerge over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast to begin later today. Ian is
expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight and reach
major hurricane strength by late Monday or Monday night before it
reaches western Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches)
based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman
Brac by tonight or early Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area in Cuba by Monday night or early
Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ian is expected to produce the following
rainfall:

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up
to 8 inches.

Western Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches.

Florida Keys to the southern and western Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4
inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches through Wednesday morning.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban
flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the
Florida peninsula through mid week. Additional flooding and rises on
area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the
Southeast cannot be ruled out, especially in central Florida given
already saturated antecedent conditions.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9
to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba
in areas of onshore winds in the watch area Monday night and early
Tuesday.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and will
spread to the Cayman Islands later today. Swells will then
spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the
coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
Monday and Monday night. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 250841
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Bands of deep convection have developed primarily over the
northern portion of Ian's circulation overnight, however data from
an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft show that the low- and
mid-level centers of the tropical storm have not yet become in
better alignment. The Air Force plane essentially performed a
low-level invest-like mission at about 2500 ft and found an
east-southeast to west-northwest elongated area of light
and variable winds that is located to the southeast of the mid-level
center seen in infrared satellite imagery. Given the time spent
searching for the low-level center, the aircraft did not fully
sample the northern portion of the circulation where the strongest
winds are likely located. Therefore, the initial intensity is held
at 45 kt, which is in line with the latest subjective and objective
satellite estimates. It should be noted that the advisory position
is a compromise between the low- and mid-level centers as it is
quite likely that a new low-level center will form closer to the
convection and the mid-level center very soon.

Due to the current lack of center definition, the initial motion
estimate is a somewhat uncertain 285/10 kt. The track forecast
philosophy remains unchanged, with Ian forecast to move around the
western periphery of a subtropical ridge located over the western
Atlantic. Ian is forecast to turn northwestward later today,
passing near or southwest of the Cayman Islands on Monday, and
approach western Cuba on Monday night or early Tuesday. While the
models agree on the overall scenario, there are still significant
differences regarding the exact track of the storm, especially
after 72 hours. Even with the addition of the NOAA G-IV synoptic
surveillance dropsonde data and additional upper-air balloon
releases across much of the United States, the spread in the
guidance has not narrowed from before. The UKMET and ECMWF models
continue to hold firm along the eastern side of the guidance and
show a track into west-central Florida, while the GFS and HWRF
remain one the western side, taking the Ian into the central or
western Florida panhandle. The updated NHC track continues to
split these differences and remains closest to the TVCA multi-model
consensus, and the latest GFS ensemble mean. The new track is very
similar to the previous advisory. With the cross-track spreading
remaining between 200-220 n mi at days 4 and 5, it cannot be
overstated that significant uncertainty remains in Ian's long-range
prediction. Another NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission is
already underway collecting data around the storm which will
hopefully reduce some of the model spread.

Ian remains within an environment that appears quite conducive for
strengthening. Once the circulation become more vertically
coherent, low vertical wind shear conditions and high ocean heat
content are expected to allow for rapid intensification while Ian
moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The Deterministic to
Probabilistic Statistical Rapid Intensification Index (DTOPS) once
again calls for a 90 percent chance of rapid strengthening during
the following 48- and 72-hour forecast periods. The NHC intensity
forecast calls for rapid intensification to begin later today, and
forecasts Ian to be a major hurricane when it nears western
Cuba in about 48 hours. The latest official intensity forecast
shows a similar peak intensity around 72 h over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico as the previous advisory.

After that time, a significant increase in southwesterly shear is
predicted by the global models, and weakening is forecast to occur
while Ian approaches the Florida coast. Despite the reduction in
intensity, Ian is likely to have an expanding wind field and will be
slowing down by that time, which will have the potential to produce
significant wind and storm surge impacts. Users are urged
to not focus on specific forecast intensities in the 4- and 5-day
forecasts and instead focus on the potential hazards Ian may
produce across portions of Florida.

Key Messages:

1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of flash
flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding is
possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and Florida peninsula
through mid week. Additional flooding on rivers across northern
Florida and parts of the Southeast cannot be ruled out.

2. Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are expected on Grand
Cayman beginning early Monday.

3. Ian is forecast to be a major hurricane when it passes near or
over western Cuba, and there is increasing confidence in a
life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds in portions
of western Cuba beginning late Monday. Hurricane and tropical
storm watches are now in effect for much of western Cuba.

4. Ian is expected to remain a major hurricane when it moves
generally northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the
middle of the week, but uncertainty in the long-term track
and intensity forecast is higher than usual. Regardless of Ian?--s
exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous storm
surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west
coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of
the week, and residents in Florida should ensure they have their
hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials,
and closely monitor updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 14.9N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 15.7N 80.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 17.3N 81.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 19.1N 83.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 21.0N 84.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 23.0N 84.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 24.8N 84.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 27.5N 84.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 29.8N 83.9W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 250841
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY...
...RISK OF SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS INCREASING FOR
WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 78.8W
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 78.8 West. Ian is moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest at a similar forward speed is expected later today,
followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Monday and north
on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast
to pass well southwest of Jamaica today, and pass near or west of
the Cayman Islands early Monday. Ian will then move near or over
western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday and emerge over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid strengthening is forecast to begin later today. Ian is
expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight and reach
major hurricane strength by late Monday or Monday night before it
reaches western Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman
Brac by tonight or early Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area in Cuba by Monday night or early
Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ian is expected to produce the following
rainfall:

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up
to 8 inches.

Western Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches.

Florida Keys to the southern and western Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4
inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches through Wednesday morning.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban
flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the
Florida peninsula through mid week. Additional flooding and rises on
area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the
Southeast cannot be ruled out, especially in central Florida given
already saturated antecedent conditions.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9
to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba
in areas of onshore winds in the watch area Monday night and early
Tuesday.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and will
spread to the Cayman Islands later today. Swells will then
spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the
coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
Monday and Monday night. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 250840
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
0900 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 78.8W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 78.8W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 78.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.7N 80.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.3N 81.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.1N 83.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.0N 84.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.0N 84.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.8N 84.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 27.5N 84.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 29.8N 83.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 78.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 25/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 250543
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING IAN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 78.3W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 78.3 West. Ian is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest and northwest at a similar forward speed is expected
today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Monday
and north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is
forecast to pass well southwest of Jamaica today, and pass near
or west of the Cayman Islands early Monday. Ian will then move near
or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday and emerge over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid strengthening is forecast to begin soon. Ian is expected to
become a hurricane later today and reach major hurricane strength
by late Monday before it reaches western Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman
Brac by tonight or early Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area in Cuba by Monday night or early
Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ian is expected to produce the following
rainfall:

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up
to 8 inches

Western Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches

Florida Keys and southern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima
up to 6 inches through Tuesday evening

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban
flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the
Florida peninsula through mid next week. Additional flooding and
rises on area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts
of the Southeast cannot be ruled out, especially in central Florida
given already saturated antecedent conditions.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9
to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba
in areas of onshore winds in the watch area Monday night and early
Tuesday.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and will
spread to the Cayman Islands later today. Swells will then
spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the
coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
Monday and Monday night. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 250253
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

A NOAA G-IV Hurricane Hunter jet flew a surveillance around and
across Ian at high altitude earlier this evening and dropped
several dropsondes near the estimated center. The surface winds
from the instruments suggested that Ian had an elongated surface
circulation from northwest to southeast, but one dropsonde in
particular had a lower pressure than the others, which helped to
located the center. Some new convection has been forming near this
location recently, which provides a little more confidence in the
estimate. The minimum pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, a consensus
of satellite intensity estimates suggests that the maximum winds are
now near 45 kt.

The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, with Ian expected
to curve around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical
ridge through the 5-day forecast period. There has also been
little change in the individual model solutions--the ECMWF remains
on the eastern side of the guidance envelope and the GFS remains on
the western side. Since there has been no significant change in
the guidance, the new NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous one through day 3, although it has been nudged slightly
westward (again) on days 4 and 5 over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in
the direction of the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

Ian is now in an environment of low shear and high atmospheric
moisture and over waters of high ocean heat content. Once the
circulation becomes vertically stacked, which should be soon, these
conditions favor rapid intensification (RI) while Ian moves over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Several RI indices support this
scenario, with the Deterministic to Probabilistic Statistical Rapid
Intensification Index (DTOPS) in particular showing a greater than
90 percent chance of RI during the ensuing 48- and 72-hour forecast
periods. The NHC official forecast explicitly shows RI beginning
on Sunday, with Ian predicted to peak at category 4 intensity over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico in about 3 days.

By days 4 and 5, global models are leaning toward a scenario where
Ian enters into an environment of very strong southwesterly shear,
and weakening is therefore expected while Ian approaches the coast
of the Florida panhandle. That said, Ian is likely to have an
expanding wind field and will be slowing down by that time, which
will have the potential to produce significant wind and storm surge
impacts despite any potential weakening. Users are urged to not
focus on specific forecast intensities in the 4- and 5-day forecasts
and instead focus on the potential hazards Ian may produce across
portions of Florida.


Key Messages:

1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of flash
flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding is
possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and Florida peninsula
through mid next week. Additional flooding on rivers across
northern Florida and parts of the Southeast cannot be ruled out.

2. Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are expected on Grand
Cayman beginning early Monday.

3. Ian is forecast to be a major hurricane when it passes near or
over western Cuba, and there is increasing confidence in a
life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds in portions
of western Cuba beginning late Monday. Hurricane and tropical
storm watches are now in effect for much of western Cuba.

4. Ian is expected to remain a major hurricane when it moves
generally northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the
middle of next week, but uncertainty in the long-term track
and intensity forecast is higher than usual. Regardless of Ian?--s
exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous storm
surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west
coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of next
week, and residents in Florida should ensure they have their
hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials,
and closely monitor updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 14.7N 77.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 15.3N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 16.6N 81.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 18.3N 82.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 20.1N 83.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 22.0N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH...OVER WEST TIP OF CUBA
72H 28/0000Z 23.9N 84.9W 120 KT 140 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 29/0000Z 27.2N 84.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 29.6N 84.1W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 250252
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND BECOME A
HURRICANE ON SUNDAY...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 77.7W
ABOUT 395 MI...630 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Cuban
provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa, and a
Tropical Storm Watch for the Cuban provinces of La Habana,
Mayabeque, and Matanzas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 77.7 West. Ian is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest and northwest at a similar forward speed is expected
on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Monday
and north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is
forecast to pass well southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near
or west of the Cayman Islands early Monday. Ian will then move near
or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday and emerge over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast to begin on
Sunday. Ian is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday and reach
major hurricane strength by late Monday before it reaches western
Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Sunday
night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and
Cayman Brac by Sunday night or early Monday. Hurricane conditions
are possible within the hurricane watch area in Cuba by Monday
night or early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ian is expected to produce the following
rainfall:

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up
to 8 inches

Western Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches

Florida Keys and southern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima
up to 6 inches through Tuesday evening

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban
flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the
Florida peninsula through mid next week. Additional flooding and
rises on area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts
of the Southeast cannot be ruled out, especially in central Florida
given already saturated antecedent conditions.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9
to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba
in areas of onshore winds in the watch area Monday night and early
Tuesday.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica
overnight and the Cayman Islands on Sunday. Swells will then
spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the
coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
Monday and Monday night. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 250252
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA...AND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...
MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 77.7W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 77.7W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 77.2W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.3N 79.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.6N 81.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.3N 82.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N 83.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.0N 84.5W...WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.9N 84.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 27.2N 84.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 29.6N 84.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 77.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 25/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 242348
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER SURVEILLANCE JET FINDS IAN STILL
ORGANIZING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 77.1W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in western and central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter surveillance aircraft near
latitude 14.6 North, longitude 77.1 West. Ian is moving toward the
west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue through early Sunday. A turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest is forecast on Sunday and Monday, followed by a
northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Ian is forecast to pass well southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and
pass near or west of the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early
Monday. Ian will then move near or over western Cuba late Monday and
emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Significant strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Ian
is forecast to become a hurricane by late Sunday and a major
hurricane by late Monday or early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

Dropsonde data from the NOAA surveillance aircraft indicate that the
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Sunday
night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and
Cayman Brac by Sunday night.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with
local maxima up to 6 inches

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up
to 10 inches

Western Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches

Florida Keys and southern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima
up to 6 inches through Tuesday evening

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban
flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the
Florida peninsula through mid next week. Additional flooding and
rises on area streams and rivers across Florida cannot be ruled out
through next week given already saturated antecedent conditions.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to
4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands on Sunday and spread westward to Cuba by Monday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 242056
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

The satellite presentation of Ian has improved this afternoon. The
associated deep convection shows increased signs of organization,
and the deep-layer shear appears to have diminished over the cyclone
based on more extensive upper-level outflow noted in visible
satellite imagery. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found
850-mb peak flight level winds of 44 kt and several SFMR retrievals
greater than 40 kt, while dropsonde data suggest the minimum
pressure has not changed much since the previous flight. A blend of
these data support an initial intensity of 40 kt for this advisory.

The aircraft data suggest the center could be re-forming slightly
west of previous estimates, so the initial motion is an uncertain
265/14 kt. Ian is expected to move westward through early Sunday
before turning northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a
ridge to the north. A north-northwestward to northward motion is
forecast on Monday and Tuesday as the center of Ian passes near or
over the western tip of Cuba and emerges over the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico. Overall, the westward trend in the track models
continues, with the latest GFS on the far left side of the guidance
envelope and the ECMWF on the right edge. The track forecast is
still highly uncertain at days 4-5, with the GFS and ECMWF positions
about 200 n mi apart by 96 h. There is significant spread noted even
among the GFS ensemble members, with positions that range from the
north-central Gulf of Mexico to the west coast of Florida.
Hopefully, data collected from special radiosonde releases and a
NOAA G-IV flight this evening will help better resolve the steering
flow around Ian and the deep-layer trough that is forecast to be
over the eastern U.S. early next week. The latest NHC track forecast
is once again adjusted westward, and further adjustments may be
needed given the increased uncertainty in the day 3-5 period.

Ian is expected to significantly strengthen over the next few
days as it moves within a low shear environment over SSTs greater
than 30 deg C in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. As the structure
of the cyclone continues to improve and Ian develops an inner core,
rapid intensification (RI) appears very likely. The SHIPS-RII
probabilities continue to highlight this potential, with a 66
percent chance of a 65-kt intensity increase in 72 h. The NHC
intensity forecast has been raised substantially through 96 h, and
it now shows Ian reaching major hurricane strength by late Monday
before it nears western Cuba. These changes closely follow the IVCN
and HCCA consensus aids, although there remains guidance even higher
than the current forecast. Ian is forecast to remain a major
hurricane as it moves northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
and approaches Florida. Environmental conditions could become less
favorable late in the period due to southerly shear associated with
the aforementioned trough, but Ian is expected to remain a large
and powerful hurricane through the period.


Key Messages:

1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over
Jamaica and Cuba. Limited flash and urban flooding is possible with
rainfall across the Florida Keys and Florida peninsula through mid
next week.

2. Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are expected on Grand
Cayman beginning early Monday.

3. Ian is forecast to be a major hurricane when it passes near or
over western Cuba, and there is increasing confidence in a
life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds in portions
of western Cuba beginning late Monday.

4. Ian is expected to remain a major hurricane when it moves
generally northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the
middle of next week, but uncertainty in the track forecast is higher
than usual. Regardless of Ian?--s exact track, there is a risk of
dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall
along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the
middle of next week, and residents in Florida should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local
officials, and closely monitor updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 14.3N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 14.6N 78.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 15.7N 80.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 17.4N 82.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 19.2N 83.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 20.9N 84.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 23.1N 85.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 26.2N 84.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 28.7N 83.9W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 242056
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 77.0W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Jamaica has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for Jamaica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in western and central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 77.0 West. Ian is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through early Sunday. A turn toward the
northwest and north-northwest is forecast on Sunday and Monday,
followed by a northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Ian is forecast to pass well southwest of Jamaica on
Sunday, and pass near or west of the Cayman Islands Sunday night and
early Monday. Ian will then move near or over western Cuba late
Monday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next
few days. Ian is forecast to become a hurricane by late Sunday and a
major hurricane by late Monday or early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Sunday
night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and
Cayman Brac by Sunday night.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with
local maxima up to 6 inches

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up
to 10 inches

Western Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches

Florida Keys and southern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima
up to 6 inches through Tuesday evening

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban
flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the
Florida peninsula through mid next week. Additional flooding and
rises on area streams and rivers across Florida cannot be ruled out
through next week given already saturated antecedent conditions.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to
4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands on Sunday and spread westward to Cuba by Monday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 242054
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
2100 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR JAMAICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 77.0W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 77.0W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 76.2W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.6N 78.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.7N 80.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.4N 82.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.2N 83.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.9N 84.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.1N 85.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 26.2N 84.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 28.7N 83.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 77.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 25/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 241752
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 75.8W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has upgraded the Hurricane
Watch to a Hurricane Warning for Grand Cayman, and has changed the
Hurricane Watch to a Tropical Storm Watch for Little Cayman and
Cayman Brac.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in western and central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 75.8 West. Ian is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast on Sunday, followed by a north-northwestward turn on Monday
and a northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Ian is forecast to pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass
near the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday. Ian will then
approach western Cuba late Monday and emerge over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next few
days. Ian is expected to become a hurricane late Sunday or Sunday
night and could be at or near major hurricane strength late Monday
when it approaches western Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Sunday
night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica by Sunday,
and on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac by Sunday night.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Southern Haiti and southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with
local maxima up to 6 inches

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima up
to 12 inches

Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 14
inches

Florida Keys and south Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with local maxima up
to 5 inches through Tuesday morning

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban
flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the
Florida peninsula through mid next week. Additional flooding and
rises on area streams and rivers across Florida cannot be ruled out
through next week given already saturated antecedent conditions.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to
4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands on Sunday and spread westward to Cuba by Monday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 241454
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

Ian still has an asymmetric appearance in satellite imagery this
morning, with most of the deep convection located over the western
portion of the circulation. Tail Doppler radar and dropsonde data
from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the cyclone is still
vertically tilted, with the low- to mid-level center displaced to
the south of the surface center. This structure is likely a product
of the northerly shear that has affected the cyclone since genesis.
The aircraft reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 43 kt and SFMR
retrievals slightly above 35 kt, which supports keeping the initial
intensity at 40 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is a bit south of due west at 260/13 kt. A
generally westward motion is expected through tonight as the cyclone
is steered by a narrow ridge to its north. Ian is forecast to turn
northwestward on Sunday and north-northwestward on Monday as it
moves across the northwestern Caribbean Sea around the periphery of
the ridge. The NHC track forecast during this period has been
adjusted slightly south and west of the previous one, in line with
the track consensus aids. Beyond 72 h, there is still a large amount
of cross-track spread in the guidance as Ian emerges into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaches Florida. Hopefully, data
collected from special radiosonde releases beginning later today and
a scheduled NOAA G-IV flight will help resolve the steering flow
around Ian and deep-layer trough that is forecast to be over the
eastern U.S. early next week. The guidance envelope has once again
shifted westward this cycle, and the official NHC track forecast has
been adjusted in this direction as well, though it still lies
slightly to the east of the TVCA and HCCA aids. Further adjustments
to the track forecast may be needed given the increased uncertainty
in the day 3-5 period.

Ian is moving into a lower shear environment over very warm waters,
and it should not take long for the system to shed its tilted
structure and develop an inner core. Once that occurs, significant
to rapid intensification is expected while Ian crosses the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. The intensity guidance unanimously
supports strengthening during the next several days, and the
SHIPS-RII probabilities indicate a 67 percent chance of a 65-kt
intensity increase in 72 h. Therefore, the NHC track forecast has
been raised from the previous one, showing Ian becoming a hurricane
by late Sunday and approaching western Cuba at or near major
hurricane strength by Monday night. Limited land interaction is
expected as the cyclone quickly passes over western Cuba, and Ian
is forecast to be a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday and Wednesday as it approaches the west coast of Florida.

Key Messages:

1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over
Jamaica and Cuba. Limited flash and urban flooding is possible with
rainfall across the Florida Keys and Florida peninsula through mid
next week.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by early
Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica on
Sunday.

3. Ian is forecast to move near or over western Cuba and approach
the west coast of the Florida peninsula at or near major hurricane
strength early next week, where there is increasing confidence in
multiple life-threatening hazards: storm surge, hurricane-force
winds and rainfall flooding. While it is too soon to determine the
exact magnitude and location of these hazards, residents in Cuba,
the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local
officials, and closely monitor updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 14.4N 75.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 14.5N 76.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 15.5N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 17.0N 80.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 18.8N 82.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 20.7N 83.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 22.7N 84.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 26.0N 83.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 28.6N 82.9W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 241453
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 75.2W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 75.2W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 74.5W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.5N 76.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.5N 78.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.0N 80.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.8N 82.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.7N 83.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.7N 84.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 26.0N 83.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 28.6N 82.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 75.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 241453
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEKEND...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 75.2W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in western and central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 75.2 West. Ian is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast on Sunday, followed by a north-northwestward turn on Monday
and a northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Ian is forecast to move across the central Caribbean Sea today,
pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near or over the
Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday. Ian will then approach
western Cuba late Monday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next few
days. Ian is expected to become a hurricane late Sunday or Sunday
night and could be at or near major hurricane strength late Monday
when it approaches western Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches)
based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Sunday
night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Southern Haiti and southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with
local maxima up to 6 inches

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima up
to 12 inches

Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 14
inches

Florida Keys and south Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with local maxima up
to 5 inches through Tuesday morning

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban
flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the
Florida peninsula through mid next week. Additional flooding and
rises on area streams and rivers across Florida cannot be ruled out
through next week given already saturated antecedent conditions.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to
4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands on Sunday and spread westward to Cuba by Monday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 241147
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 74.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in western and central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 74.5 West. Ian is moving
toward the west-southwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected through early Sunday. A turn
toward the northwest is forecast late Sunday, followed by a
north-northwestward turn by late Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ian is forecast to move across the central Caribbean Sea
today, pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near or over
the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday. Ian will then
approach western Cuba on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Ian is
expected to become a hurricane late Sunday or Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Sunday
night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with
local maximum up to 6 inches

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maximum up
to 12 inches

Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maximum up to 14
inches

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.

Florida Keys and South Florida: Heavy rains could begin as early as
Monday. Limited flash and urban flooding is possible with this
rainfall.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and Cuba over the next several days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 240853
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

Ian is still being affected by some north-northeasterly, however
short-wave infrared imagery suggests that the center is located
beneath the eastern edge of the colder convective cloud tops.
Deep convection over the western portion of the circulation has
increased overnight but there is still little banding evident in
conventional satellite imagery. Subjective Dvorak satellite
classifications from TAFB and SAB, and objective estimates from
UW-CIMSS have changed little this cycle, but given that the center
is more involved with the deep convection, the initial intensity
has been increased to 40 kt, which is between the objective
estimates and a TAFB Dvorak T-number of 3.0 or 45 kt. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Ian this
morning, and should provide additional data on Ian's structure
and intensity.

Recent satellite fixes indicate that Ian has turned westward
(270/12 kt) overnight to the south of a narrow ridge centered
near Hispaniola. By early Sunday, Ian is expected to reach the
western portion of the ridge, and the storm should turn
west-northwestward, and then northwestward over the northwestern
Caribbean in 36 to 48 hours. After that time, Ian is forecast to
turn north-northwestward and northward around the western portion
of the ridge. This will bring Ian near or over Western Cuba and
into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Late in the period, the
guidance indicates the storm will begin to recurve toward Florida.
As mentioned before, the track models are in general agreement with
this scenario, however there is a large amount of cross-track
spread at 72 hours and beyond. In fact, the east-west spread in
the guidance at 96 hours is about 180 n mi, with the CTCI and ECMWF
along the eastern side of the envelope, and the GFS, HWRF, and GFS
ensemble mean along the western side. The overall guidance
envelope has shifted slightly westward this cycle, and the NHC
track has been nudged in that direction and lies just east of the
various consensus aids. Given the spread in the guidance, and
the still shifting dynamical models, additional adjustments to the
track forecast may be needed in subsequent advisories. Users are
reminded that the long-term average NHC 4- and 5-day track errors
are around 150 and 200 n mi, respectively.

The shear that has been plaguing Ian is forecast to continue to
decrease over the next day or two while the cyclone moves over the
warm waters of the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. This
should allow for strengthening, with steady to rapid
intensification (RI) quite possible once an inner core becomes
established. Although the updated NHC forecast is just shy of
forecasting RI (30 kt or greater increase over 24 h) during any 24-h
period over the next few days, it calls a 45-kt increase in wind
speed between 24 and 72 hours, and Ian is likely to be near major
hurricane intensity when it approaches western Cuba. Since Ian is
not expected to remain over Cuba long, little weakening is expected
due to that land interaction, and the forecast again shows Ian as a
major hurricane over the eastern Gulf when it is approaching the
west coast of Florida.


Key Messages:

1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of
flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica on
Sunday.

3. Early next week, Ian is forecast to move near or over western
Cuba as a strengthening hurricane and then approach the Florida
peninsula at or near major hurricane strength, with the potential
for significant impacts from storm surge, hurricane-force winds,
and heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the
exact magnitude and location of these impacts, residents in Cuba,
the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place and closely monitor forecast updates
through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 14.7N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 14.6N 75.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 15.2N 77.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 16.5N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 18.2N 81.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 20.2N 82.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 22.0N 83.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 25.5N 83.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 28.2N 82.1W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 240852
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...IAN STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 73.5W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in western and central Cuba should monitor the progress
of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 73.5 West. Ian is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected through early Sunday. A
turn toward the northwest is forecast late Sunday, followed by a
north-northwestward turn by late Monday. On the forecast track,
the center of Ian is forecast to move across the central Caribbean
Sea today, pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near or
over the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday. Ian will
then approach western Cuba on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next few days, and Ian is expected to become a hurricane late
Sunday or Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Sunday
night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with
local maximum up to 6 inches

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maximum up
to 12 inches

Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maximum up to 14
inches

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.

Florida Keys and South Florida: Heavy rains could begin as early as
Monday. Limited flash and urban flooding is possible with this
rainfall.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and Cuba over the next several days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 240852
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
0900 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 73.5W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 73.5W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 72.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.6N 75.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.2N 77.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.5N 79.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.2N 81.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.2N 82.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 22.0N 83.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 25.5N 83.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 28.2N 82.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 73.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 240547
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...IAN MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 72.9W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in western and central Cuba should monitor the progress
of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 72.9 West. Ian is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward
to west-northwestward motion is expected through early Sunday. A
turn toward the northwest is forecast late Sunday, followed by a
north-northwestward turn by late Monday. On the forecast track,
the center of Ian is forecast to move across the central Caribbean
Sea today, pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near or
over the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday. Ian will
then approach western Cuba on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Ian
is expected to become a hurricane Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Sunday
night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with
local maximum up to 6 inches

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maximum up
to 12 inches

Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maximum up to 14
inches

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.

Florida Keys and South Florida: Heavy rains could begin as early as
Monday. Limited flash and urban flooding is possible with this
rainfall.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and Cuba over the next several days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 240245
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

The system remains sheared from the northeast, with the low-level
circulation evident a bit to the east of the deep convection.
Unfortunately, we didn't have the benefit of a reconnaissance
aircraft this evening to sample the winds, but satellite estimates
did increase a bit. TAFB and SAB provided Dvorak classifications
of T2.0/30 kt and T3.0/45 kt, respectively, while the objective
UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates are at tropical storm intensity.
Based on a blend of these data, the depression is upgraded to
Tropical Storm Ian with 35-kt winds.

Ian's center appears to have been moving more slowly this evening,
and the initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 285/10
kt. The track guidance is in good agreement that Ian should turn
westward during the next 12-24 hours while located to the south of
a small mid-level anticyclone centered just north of Hispaniola.
After 24 hours, Ian is expected to begin recurving around the
western side of this high, turning northwestward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea, and then northward while crossing Cuba
into the Gulf of Mexico and toward Florida. The track models
agree on this general scenario, and the guidance envelope is
flanked by the major global models, with the ECMWF taking a route
over South Florida and the GFS farther west, remaining over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico by day 5. The new NHC forecast lies between
these two scenarios and is not much different from the previous
forecast. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles both show a similar amount
of spread as the deterministic guidance, but both ensemble means
are close to the multi-model consensus aids, which helps to give
more credence to the position of the official forecast.

The moderate deep-layer shear affecting Ian is forecast to decrease
during the next 6 to 12 hours, and the cyclone will be moving over
the very warm waters of the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea,
where sea surface temperatures are between 29 and 31 degrees
Celsius. Intensification is expected to be gradual during the next
36 hours while Ian gets better organized in a lower-shear
environment, but after that time, conditions will be conducive for
faster strengthening. In fact, the NHC intensity forecast
explicitly calls for rapid intensification (RI) between days 2 and
3 while Ian is moving over the northwestern Caribbean Sea toward
western Cuba. It's worth nothing too that the RI indices from
SHIPS are showing a 2-in-3 chance of a 65-kt increase in winds
during the next 3 days, and if that transpires, Ian could be
stronger than what's shown in the official forecast. The storm is
not expected to be over Cuba long enough to cause much weakening,
and the forecast still shows Ian as a major hurricane over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico while approaching the west coast of Florida.


Key Messages:

1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of
flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica on
Sunday.

3. Early next week, Ian is forecast to move near or over western
Cuba as a strengthening hurricane and then approach the Florida
peninsula at or near major hurricane strength, with the potential
for significant impacts from storm surge, hurricane-force winds,
and heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the
exact magnitude and location of these impacts, residents in Cuba,
the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place and closely monitor forecast updates
through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 14.8N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 14.7N 73.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 15.1N 76.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 16.1N 78.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 17.6N 80.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 19.3N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR GRAND CAYMAN
72H 27/0000Z 21.2N 82.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 24.9N 83.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 28.0N 82.0W 95 KT 110 MPH...OVER FLORIDA

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 240244
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...TROPICAL STORM IAN FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 72.0W
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in western and central Cuba should monitor the progress
of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 72.0 West. Ian is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward
or west-northwestward motion is expected through early Sunday. A
turn toward the northwest is forecast late Sunday, followed by a
north-northwestward turn by late Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ian is forecast to move across the central Caribbean Sea
through Saturday, pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass
near or over the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday. Ian
will then approach western Cuba on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Ian is
expected to become a hurricane Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Sunday
night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with
local maximum up to 6 inches

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maximum up
to 12 inches

Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maximum up to 14
inches

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.

Florida Keys and South Florida: Heavy rains begin as early as
Monday. Limited flash and urban flooding is possible with this
rainfall.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and Cuba over the next several days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 240244
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
0300 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 72.0W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 72.0W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 71.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.7N 73.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.1N 76.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.1N 78.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.6N 80.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.3N 81.5W...NEAR GRAND CAYMAN
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.2N 82.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 24.9N 83.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 28.0N 82.0W...OVER FLORIDA
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 72.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 232345
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 71.5W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 71.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h). A westward motion is expected to begin tonight and continue
through Saturday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is forecast to move across the central
Caribbean Sea through Saturday, pass south of Jamaica on Saturday
night and Sunday, and approach the Cayman Islands on Sunday night
and early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or
so, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm
tonight or on Saturday. More significant intensification is
forecast on Sunday and Monday, and the system is forecast to become
a hurricane by early Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica by
Sunday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce the
following rainfall:

Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with
local maximum up to 6 inches

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maximum up
to 12 inches

Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maximum up to 14
inches.

Heavy rains may begin to affect South Florida on Monday. Limited
flash and urban flood impacts may be possible with this rainfall.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, and Cuba over the next several days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 232103 CCA
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
2100 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022

CORRECTED FOR NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INCLUDING GRAND CAYMAN...LITTLE
CAYMAN...AND CAYMAN BRAC.

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
JAMAICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 71.3W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 71.3W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 70.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.8N 73.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.0N 75.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.6N 77.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.8N 79.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.8N 81.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.7N 82.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 24.4N 83.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.0N 82.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 71.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 232100 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 3...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

Corrected for next intermediate time

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 71.3W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 930 MI...1500 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Hurricane Watch
for the Cayman Islands, including Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and
Cayman Brac.

The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Jamaica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 71.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h). A westward motion is expected to begin tonight and continue
through Saturday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is forecast to move across the central
Caribbean Sea through Saturday, pass south of Jamaica on Saturday
night and Sunday, and approach the Cayman Islands on Sunday night
and early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight.
More significant intensification is forecast on Sunday and Monday,
and the system is forecast to become a hurricane by early Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica by
Sunday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce the
following rainfall:

Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with
local maximum up to 6 inches

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maximum up
to 12 inches

Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maximum up to 14
inches.

Heavy rains may begin to affect South Florida on Monday. Limited
flash and urban flood impacts may be possible with this rainfall.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, and Cuba over the next several days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 232054
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

The organization of the depression has slightly improved since this
morning. The low-level center has been decoupled from the deep
convection for much of the day, but in recent satellite imagery
it appears the center may be drawing closer to a more recent burst
of convective activity. Unfortunately, earlier scatterometer data
missed the center of the cyclone, and the satellite intensity
estimates still range from 25-35 kt. The initial intensity is held
at 30 kt for this advisory, and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is on its way to investigate the system this evening.

The system is still moving west-northwestward at 290/13 kt, but it
is expected to turn westward tonight and continue on that heading
through Saturday as a ridge develops to its north. Then, a deep-
layer trough over the eastern U.S. is forecast to erode the ridge
into early next week. This should result in a turn toward the
northwest and north-northwest while the cyclone passes near the
Cayman Islands early Monday and approaches western Cuba Monday
night. Once again, the global models have shifted westward this
cycle during this period, and there remains increased track
uncertainty late in the forecast period once the cyclone emerges
into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The latest NHC track forecast
has been adjusted westward from 48-120 h, and it lies near or
slightly east of the latest track consensus aids.

Recent satellite trends suggest the cyclone may already be nearing
a lower shear environment, and once that occurs, the atmospheric
and oceanic conditions appear very conducive for strengthening
through early next week. As the cyclone moves within a moist and
unstable environment over sea-surface temperatures greater than 30
deg C, it is forecast to rapidly intensify over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and continue strengthening while it approaches
western Cuba on Monday night. The very warm waters of the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico should allow for more strengthening
once it crosses Cuba, and the NHC forecast once again shows the
system approaching the Florida peninsula as a major hurricane by
the middle of next week.

Based on the latest forecast, a Hurricane Watch has been issued
for the Cayman Islands, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been
issued for Jamaica.


Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to produce heavy rainfall, flash
flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain in
Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. Heavy rains are also likely to spread
into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba in the coming days.

2. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Jamaica, with
tropical storm conditions possible on the island by Sunday. A
Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Cayman Islands, with
hurricane conditions possible by early Monday and tropical storm
conditions possible by late Sunday.

3. Early next week the system is forecast to move near or over
western Cuba as a strengthening hurricane and then approach the
Florida peninsula at or near major hurricane strength, with the
potential for significant impacts from storm surge, hurricane-force
winds, and heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the
exact magnitude and location of these impacts, residents in Cuba,
the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place and closely monitor forecast updates
through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 14.7N 71.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 14.8N 73.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 15.0N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 15.6N 77.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 16.8N 79.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 18.8N 81.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 20.7N 82.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 24.4N 83.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 27.0N 82.7W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 232052
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 71.3W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 930 MI...1500 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Hurricane Watch
for the Cayman Islands, including Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and
Cayman Brac.

The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Jamaica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 71.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h). A westward motion is expected to begin tonight and continue
through Saturday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is forecast to move across the central
Caribbean Sea through Saturday, pass south of Jamaica on Saturday
night and Sunday, and approach the Cayman Islands on Sunday night
and early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight.
More significant intensification is forecast on Sunday and Monday,
and the system is forecast to become a hurricane by early Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica by
Sunday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce the
following rainfall:

Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with
local maximum up to 6 inches

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maximum up
to 12 inches

Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maximum up to 14
inches.

Heavy rains may begin to affect South Florida on Monday. Limited
flash and urban flood impacts may be possible with this rainfall.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, and Cuba over the next several days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 232052
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
2100 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INCLUDING GRAND CAYMAN...LITTLE
CAYMAN...AND CAYMAN BRAC.

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
JAMAICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 71.3W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 71.3W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 70.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.8N 73.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.0N 75.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.6N 77.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.8N 79.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.8N 81.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.7N 82.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 24.4N 83.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.0N 82.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 71.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 231454
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

The depression remains highly sheared this morning. Visible
satellite imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate the center of the system is still exposed
to the east of the associated deep convection. The center also
appears a bit elongated, with a couple of low-level swirls evident
in satellite imagery that appear to be rotating around a mean
center. The aircraft winds and a blend of the latest satellite
estimates support an initial intensity of 30 kt for this advisory.

The long-term motion of the depression is still west-northwestward
at 12 kt. The cyclone is expected to move more westward over the
next 24-36 h as a narrow low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north
of the system. Then, an amplifying deep-layer trough over the
eastern U.S. is forecast to weaken the ridge beginning on Sunday,
which should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward and northward
as it approaches western Cuba early next week. There is increased
spread in the guidance for this portion of the track forecast, with
day 5 positions that span from the eastern Gulf to east of the
Florida peninsula. The latest NHC track forecast lies near the
center of the guidance envelope and closely follows the IVCN and
HCCA aids. This prediction is very similar to the previous one,
with only slight westward adjustments at days 3-5 to reflect the
latest model consensus trends.

The moderate to strong deep-layer northeasterly shear over the
cyclone is expected to persist through tonight, so only slight
strengthening is forecast through early Saturday. But once the shear
decreases to less than 10 kt this weekend, more significant
intensification is forecast as the cyclone moves over SSTs in excess
of 30 deg C. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been increased
from the previous one and explicitly calls for rapid intensification
as the cyclone crosses the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The system
is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and Cuba as a
strengthening hurricane, with additional intensification likely once
it emerges over the warm waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
In fact, this forecast calls for the system to approach the Florida
peninsula as a major hurricane by day 5, which is supported by the
latest IVCN and HCCA aids.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to produce heavy rainfall and
instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of
higher terrain in Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. Heavy rains are also
likely to spread into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba in the
coming days.

2. The depression is expected to approach Jamaica as a tropical
storm on Sunday and the Cayman islands as a hurricane on Monday.
Watches for these locations may be required later today or on
Saturday.

3. Early next week the system is forecast to move near or over
western Cuba as a strengthening hurricane and then approach the
Florida peninsula at or near major hurricane strength, with the
potential for significant impacts from storm surge, hurricane-force
winds, and heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the
exact magnitude and location of these impacts, residents in Cuba,
the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place and closely monitor forecast updates
through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 14.2N 70.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 14.5N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 14.7N 74.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 15.1N 76.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 16.1N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 17.8N 79.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 19.8N 81.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 23.5N 82.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 26.7N 82.1W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 231453
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 70.1W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should closely monitor
the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine
was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 70.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22
km/h). A westward motion is expected to begin later today and
continue through Saturday, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwest and northwest on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to move across the
central Caribbean Sea through Saturday, pass south of Jamaica on
Saturday night and Sunday, and approach the Cayman Islands on Sunday
night and early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight.
More significant intensification is forecast on Sunday and Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce the
following rainfall:

Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Northern Venezuela and Northern Colombia:
Additional 1 to 2 inches

Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with
local maximum up to 6 inches

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maximum up
to 12 inches

Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maximum up to 14
inches.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, and Cuba over the next several days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 231453
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 70.1W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 70.1W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 69.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.5N 71.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.7N 74.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.1N 76.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.1N 78.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.8N 79.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.8N 81.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 23.5N 82.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 26.7N 82.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 70.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 231041 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

Corrected spelling of Colombia in rainfall statement and typo in
surf statement.

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 68.6W
ABOUT 615 MI...985 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 1105 MI...1780 KM ESE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 68.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20
km/h). A turn more westward is forecast over the next next day
or so followed by a turn back to the west-northwest and
northwest by this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Only slow intensification is forecast over the next day or so,
followed by more significant intensification over the weekend and
early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for TD Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce the
following rainfall:

Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao: Additional 1 to 2 inches

Northern Venezuela: 2 to 5 inches

Northern Colombia: 3 to 6 inches

Jamaica: 4 to 8 inches with local maximum up to 12 inches

Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches

Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches with
local maximum up to 6 inches

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands and Cuba over the next several days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brennan

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 230924 CCA
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

Corrected locations of convection in first paragraph.

Convection this morning has increased primarily to the west of the
area of low pressure we have been monitoring in the central
Caribbean Sea, currently passing by to the north of Curacao island.
The system already possessed a well-defined circulation for the last
12 to 18 hours, but it was only overnight that the ongoing
convective activity was able to persist long enough near the center
to be considered a tropical cyclone. The most recent satellite
intensity estimate from TAFB was up to T2.5/35-kt. However the
GOES-16 derived motion winds from the meso sector over the system
have only been 25-30 kt in the 925-850 mb layer on the northeastern
periphery of the circulation. In addition, buoy 42059 located to the
northeast of the center has been reporting winds up to only 27-kt.
The combination of all these data provide enough justification to
upgrade this system to Tropical Depression Nine, with the initial
winds set at 30 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve
Reconnaissance mission will be investigating the system later this
morning to provide more in-situ information of the system's
structure and intensity.

The current motion right now is estimated to be off to the
west-northwest at 290/12 kt. In the short-term, the depression is
forecast to bend back more westward as a narrow east-to-west
oriented mid-level ridge builds in behind the weakness left behind
from Fiona. The current westward displaced convection may also tug
the broad center in that direction as well. However, after 48 hours,
this ridge will start to decay as a longwave deep-layer trough over
the eastern United States begins to amplify southward. This synoptic
evolution should then allow the cyclone to begin gaining latitude,
though the exact timing at which this occurs could be somewhat
related to the vertical depth of the cyclone and how it interacts
with a weak upper-level trough expected to be over the far western
Caribbean in the day 3-4 time-frame. The model guidance early on is
in fairly good agreement, but larger across-track spread begins to
take shape by 48 hours, with the GFS and its ensemble mean located
further south and west, and with the ECMWF and its ensemble mean
located further north and east. The initial track forecast has
decided to split the difference between these two model suites, and
lies fairly close to the consensus aids TVCN and HCCA. There is
still a healthy amount of uncertainty in the track forecast at the
day 4-5 timeframe.

Currently the structure of the depression is quite disheveled, with
the low-level circulation mostly exposed, with deep convective
activity displaced to its west-southwest. This structure is due to
25-30 kt of northeasterly 200-850 mb vertical wind shear caused from
the equatorward outflow channel of Fiona, resulting in significant
upper-level flow over the system. However, as the depression moves
westward, it will move out form under this unfavorable flow and into
a lighter upper-level northeasterlies. However, it may take time for
the low-level center to become better aligned with the convective
activity, and thus only slow intensification is forecast over the
next 24-48 hours. After that period, most of the guidance shows
environmental conditions becoming much more favorable as shear drops
under 10 kt and the cyclone is over the warm 29-30 C waters of the
northwestern Caribbean. Thereafter, potential land interaction with
Cuba, and the potential for an increase in southerly shear at
day 5 may cap off the intensity at the end of the forecast. The
initial NHC forecast shows the depression intensifying up to a
category 2 hurricane by the time it nears the coast of Cuba.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce heavy rainfall
and instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of
higher terrain in Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. Heavy rains are also
likely to spread into Jamaica and the Cayman Islands in the coming
days.

2. The depression is expected to approach Jamaica and the Cayman
islands as an intensifying tropical storm. Watches and warnings for
these locations may be required in subsequent forecast cycles.

3. This system is forecast to approach western Cuba and enter the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the forecast period.
Interests in Cuba and those along the Eastern Gulf Coast of the
United States should closely monitor this system, though at this
juncture forecast uncertainty remains fairly high.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 13.9N 68.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.4N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 14.7N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 14.8N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 15.5N 77.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 17.0N 78.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 18.9N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 22.6N 82.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR CUBA
120H 28/0600Z 26.0N 82.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 230907 CCA
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

Corrected location of convection in first paragraph.

Convection this morning has increased primarily to the west of the
area of low pressure we have been monitoring in the central
Caribbean Sea, currently passing by to the north of Curacao island.
The system already possessed a well-defined circulation for the last
12 to 18 hours, but it was only overnight that the ongoing
convective activity was able to persist long enough near the center
to be considered a tropical cyclone. The most recent satellite
intensity estimate from TAFB was up to T2.5/35-kt. However the
GOES-16 derived motion winds from the meso sector over the system
have only been 25-30 kt in the 925-850 mb layer on the northeastern
periphery of the circulation. In addition, buoy 42059 located to the
northeast of the center has been reporting winds up to only 27-kt.
The combination of all these data provide enough justification to
upgrade this system to Tropical Depression Nine, with the initial
winds set at 30 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve
Reconnaissance mission will be investigating the system later this
morning to provide more in-situ information of the system's
structure and intensity.

The current motion right now is estimated to be off to the
west-northwest at 290/12 kt. In the short-term, the depression is
forecast to bend back more westward as a narrow east-to-west
oriented mid-level ridge builds in behind the weakness left behind
from Fiona. The current eastward displaced convection may also tug
the broad center in that direction as well. However, after 48 hours,
this ridge will start to decay as a longwave deep-layer trough over
the eastern United States begins to amplify southward. This synoptic
evolution should then allow the cyclone to begin gaining latitude,
though the exact timing at which this occurs could be somewhat
related to the vertical depth of the cyclone and how it interacts
with a weak upper-level trough expected to be over the far western
Caribbean in the day 3-4 time-frame. The model guidance early on is
in fairly good agreement, but larger across-track spread begins to
take shape by 48 hours, with the GFS and its ensemble mean located
further south and west, and with the ECMWF and its ensemble mean
located further north and east. The initial track forecast has
decided to split the difference between these two model suites, and
lies fairly close to the consensus aids TVCN and HCCA. There is
still a healthy amount of uncertainty in the track forecast at the
day 4-5 timeframe.

Currently the structure of the depression is quite disheveled, with
the low-level circulation mostly exposed, with deep convective
activity displaced to its west-southeast. This structure is due to
25-30 kt of northeasterly 200-850 mb vertical wind shear caused from
the equatorward outflow channel of Fiona, resulting in significant
upper-level flow over the system. However, as the depression moves
westward, it will move out form under this unfavorable flow and into
a lighter upper-level northeasterlies. However, it may take time for
the low-level center to become better aligned with the convective
activity, and thus only slow intensification is forecast over the
next 24-48 hours. After that period, most of the guidance shows
environmental conditions becoming much more favorable as shear drops
under 10 kt and the cyclone is over the warm 29-30 C waters of the
northwestern Caribbean. Thereafter, potential land interaction with
Cuba, and the potential for an increase in southerly shear at
day 5 may cap off the intensity at the end of the forecast. The
initial NHC forecast shows the depression intensifying up to a
category 2 hurricane by the time it nears the coast of Cuba.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce heavy rainfall
and instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of
higher terrain in Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. Heavy rains are also
likely to spread into Jamaica and the Cayman Islands in the coming
days.

2. The depression is expected to approach Jamaica and the Cayman
islands as an intensifying tropical storm. Watches and warnings for
these locations may be required in subsequent forecast cycles.

3. This system is forecast to approach western Cuba and enter the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the forecast period.
Interests in Cuba and those along the Eastern Gulf Coast of the
United States should closely monitor this system, though at this
juncture forecast uncertainty remains fairly high.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 13.9N 68.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.4N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 14.7N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 14.8N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 15.5N 77.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 17.0N 78.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 18.9N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 22.6N 82.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR CUBA
120H 28/0600Z 26.0N 82.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 230900
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

Convection this morning has increased primarily to the east of the
area of low pressure we have been monitoring in the central
Caribbean Sea, currently passing by to the north of Curacao island.
The system already possessed a well-defined circulation for the last
12 to 18 hours, but it was only overnight that the ongoing
convective activity was able to persist long enough near the center
to be considered a tropical cyclone. The most recent satellite
intensity estimate from TAFB was up to T2.5/35-kt. However the
GOES-16 derived motion winds from the meso sector over the system
have only been 25-30 kt in the 925-850 mb layer on the northeastern
periphery of the circulation. In addition, buoy 42059 located to the
northeast of the center has been reporting winds up to only 27-kt.
The combination of all these data provide enough justification to
upgrade this system to Tropical Depression Nine, with the initial
winds set at 30 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve
Reconnaissance mission will be investigating the system later this
morning to provide more in-situ information of the system's
structure and intensity.

The current motion right now is estimated to be off to the
west-northwest at 290/12 kt. In the short-term, the depression is
forecast to bend back more westward as a narrow east-to-west
oriented mid-level ridge builds in behind the weakness left behind
from Fiona. The current eastward displaced convection may also tug
the broad center in that direction as well. However, after 48 hours,
this ridge will start to decay as a longwave deep-layer trough over
the eastern United States begins to amplify southward. This synoptic
evolution should then allow the cyclone to begin gaining latitude,
though the exact timing at which this occurs could be somewhat
related to the vertical depth of the cyclone and how it interacts
with a weak upper-level trough expected to be over the far western
Caribbean in the day 3-4 time-frame. The model guidance early on is
in fairly good agreement, but larger across-track spread begins to
take shape by 48 hours, with the GFS and its ensemble mean located
further south and west, and with the ECMWF and its ensemble mean
located further north and east. The initial track forecast has
decided to split the difference between these two model suites, and
lies fairly close to the consensus aids TVCN and HCCA. There is
still a healthy amount of uncertainty in the track forecast at the
day 4-5 timeframe.

Currently the structure of the depression is quite disheveled, with
the low-level circulation mostly exposed, with deep convective
activity displaced to its west-southeast. This structure is due to
25-30 kt of northeasterly 200-850 mb vertical wind shear caused from
the equatorward outflow channel of Fiona, resulting in significant
upper-level flow over the system. However, as the depression moves
westward, it will move out form under this unfavorable flow and into
a lighter upper-level northeasterlies. However, it may take time for
the low-level center to become better aligned with the convective
activity, and thus only slow intensification is forecast over the
next 24-48 hours. After that period, most of the guidance shows
environmental conditions becoming much more favorable as shear drops
under 10 kt and the cyclone is over the warm 29-30 C waters of the
northwestern Caribbean. Thereafter, potential land interaction with
Cuba, and the potential for an increase in southerly shear at
day 5 may cap off the intensity at the end of the forecast. The
initial NHC forecast shows the depression intensifying up to a
category 2 hurricane by the time it nears the coast of Cuba.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce heavy rainfall
and instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of
higher terrain in Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. Heavy rains are also
likely to spread into Jamaica and the Cayman Islands in the coming
days.

2. The depression is expected to approach Jamaica and the Cayman
islands as an intensifying tropical storm. Watches and warnings for
these locations may be required in subsequent forecast cycles.

3. This system is forecast to approach western Cuba and enter the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the forecast period.
Interests in Cuba and those along the Eastern Gulf Coast of the
United States should closely monitor this system, though at this
juncture forecast uncertainty remains fairly high.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 13.9N 68.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.4N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 14.7N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 14.8N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 15.5N 77.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 17.0N 78.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 18.9N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 22.6N 82.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR CUBA
120H 28/0600Z 26.0N 82.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 230855
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 68.6W
ABOUT 615 MI...985 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 1105 MI...1780 KM ESE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 68.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20
km/h). A turn more westward is forecast over the next next day
or so followed by a turn back to the west-northwest and
northwest by this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Only slow intensification is forecast over the next day or so,
followed by more significant intensification over the weekend and
early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for TD Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce the
following rainfall:

Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao: Additional 1 to 2 inches

Northern Venezuela: 2 to 5 inches

Northern Columbia: 3 to 6 inches

Jamaica: 4 to 8 inches with local maximum up to 12 inches

Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches

Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches with
local maximum up to 6 inches

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands and Cuba over the next several days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products form your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 230854
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
0900 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 68.6W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 68.6W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 68.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N 70.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.7N 72.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.8N 75.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.5N 77.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.0N 78.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.9N 80.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 22.6N 82.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 26.0N 82.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 68.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>