Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for FIONA-22
in Canada, Turks and Caicos Islands, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 242040
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Sat Sep 24 2022

Fiona remains a large and potent extratropical low pressure system.
Even though the maximum winds have decreased just below
hurricane-force, ASCAT data and surface observations show that
Fiona has a very large wind field. The initial wind speed is
estimated to be 60 kt.

Fiona has slowed down significantly, and the system is now moving
northeastward at 7 kt. A faster north to north-northeast motion is
expected, taking the center of the system across Labrador tonight
and early Sunday. The NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous one.

Since the tropical warnings have been discontinued for Atlantic
Canada, this is the last NHC advisory on Fiona. For information on
this system, see forecasts issued by Environment Canada at
https://weather.gc.ca/. Additional information can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


Key Messages:

1. Fiona is forecast to continue to affect portions of Atlantic
Canada through early Sunday, and significant impacts from high
winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona are expected to continue to impact
portions of Atlantic Canada into Sunday. This rainfall is expected
to produce flooding, some of which could be significant.

3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the coast of
the northeast United States, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during
the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 48.4N 60.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 25/0600Z 50.6N 59.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 25/1800Z 54.9N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 26/0600Z 58.4N 58.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 26/1800Z 60.7N 57.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 27/0600Z 63.1N 56.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 242040
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Sat Sep 24 2022

...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED IN ATLANTIC
CANADA...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...48.4N 60.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has discontinued all of the tropical
storm and hurricane warnings for Atlantic Canada.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal tropical storm or hurricane watches or
warnings. See warnings and forecasts issued by Environment Canada
at https://weather.gc.ca/ for more information.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona
was located near latitude 48.4 North, longitude 60.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13
km/h). A faster north-northeast or north motion is expected
through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will
move across Labrador and over the Labrador Sea late tonight and
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 550 miles (890 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Gale-force and storm-force winds are expected to continue
across portions of Atlantic Canada through early Sunday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm)
of rainfall across portions of Atlantic Canada, with storm total
maxima as high as 10 inches (250 mm) across Nova Scotia, New
Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland. Flooding
is expected, some of which could be significant.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding in portions of Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting Atlantic Canada, the
northeastern United States coast, and Bermuda. The swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Fiona. For more information, see forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada at https://weather.gc.ca/. Additional
information can also be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header
FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 242040
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
2100 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS DISCONTINUED ALL OF THE TROPICAL
STORM AND HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ATLANTIC CANADA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS. SEE WARNINGS AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT HTTPS://WEATHER.GC.CA/ FOR MORE INFORMATION.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 48.4N 60.5W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT.......120NE 150SE 150SW 120NW.
34 KT.......270NE 360SE 480SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 960SE 780SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 48.4N 60.5W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.7N 60.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 50.6N 59.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 240SE 240SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 54.9N 58.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 58.4N 58.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 60.7N 57.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 63.1N 56.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 48.4N 60.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 241744
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 41A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 PM AST Sat Sep 24 2022

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.7N 61.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch for Labrador and discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for
all of Nova Scotia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Isle-de-la-Madeleine
* Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Francois

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sheldrake Quebec to north of Parson's Pond Newfoundland
* Boat Harbor to Hare Bay Newfoundland
* Francois to St Lawrence Newfoundland

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona
was located near latitude 47.7 North, longitude 61.4 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 25 mph (41
km/h), and a slower northward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will move
across the Gulf of St. Lawrence through this evening, and then move
across Labrador and over the Labrador Sea on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 405
miles (650 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 948 mb (28.00 inches). Several observing sites in
Atlantic Canada are recording gale- and storm-force winds.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in portions of the
hurricane warning area in Canada. Tropical storm conditions are
occurring in portions of the tropical storm warning area in Canada.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following additional
rainfall:

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 1 to 3
inches (25 to 75 mm), resulting in storm total rainfall maxima of up
to 10 inches (200 mm). Flooding is expected, some of which could be
significant.

Labrador and eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm).

Eastern New Brunswick: 1 inch (25 mm) with locally higher amounts.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding within the warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of
onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting Atlantic Canada, the
northeastern United States coast, and Bermuda. The swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 241435
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 24 2022

Fiona continues to produce hurricane-force winds, heavy rains,
storm surge, and rough marine conditions across Atlantic Canada and
the surrounding waters. Surface observations suggest that the
minimum pressure has been rising, and is now estimated to be
about 945 mb, which is still extraordinarily low. The maximum
winds of the storm are decreasing and are estimated to be near 70
kt.

Fiona is now an occluded low, and it has slowed down. The initial
motion is estimated to be northward at 22 kt. A slower northward
motion is forecast during the next few days, taking the center of
the system across the Gulf of St. Lawrence through tonight, across
Labrador early Sunday, and into the Labrador Sea by Sunday night.
The NHC track forecast is just a touch to the west of the previous
one.

Winds are expected to fall below hurricane strength later today,
but the cyclone is still forecast to be a potent low for the next
day or so while it continues to affect Atlantic Canada. NHC will
continue to issue forecasts for Fiona until gale-force winds end
along the Atlantic Canada coastline.


Key Messages:

1. Fiona is forecast to continue to affect portions of Atlantic
Canada during the next day or so, and significant impacts
from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of
Atlantic Canada.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona are expected to continue to impact
portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western
Newfoundland today, persisting across eastern Quebec and Labrador
into Sunday. This rainfall is expected to produce flooding, some of
which could be significant.

3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the coast of
the northeast United States, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during
the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 47.9N 61.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 25/0000Z 50.0N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 25/1200Z 54.1N 59.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 26/0000Z 58.1N 58.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 26/1200Z 61.0N 59.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 27/0000Z 63.3N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/1200Z 65.3N 56.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 241434
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 24 2022

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.9N 61.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Brule
* Prince Edward Island
* Isle-de-la-Madeleine
* Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Francois

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Andrews New Brunswick to west of Hubbards Nova Scotia
* West of Brule Nova Scotia to Cap Madeleine Quebec
* Anticosti Island
* Sheldrake Quebec to north of Parson's Pond Newfoundland
* Boat Harbor to Hare Bay Newfoundland
* Francois to St Lawrence Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Boat Harbor Newfoundland to West Bay Labrador

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona
was located near latitude 47.9 North, longitude 61.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 25 mph (41
km/h), and a slightly slower northward motion is expected during
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will
move across the Gulf of St. Lawrence today, and then move across
Labrador and over the Labrador Sea on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 405
miles (650 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 945 mb (27.91 inches). An observation on St. Paul
Island recently reported a sustained wind of 67 mph (107 km/h) and
a gust to 82 (132 km/h).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in portions of the
hurricane warning area in Canada. Tropical storm conditions are
occurring in portions of the tropical storm warning area in Canada.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Labrador on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following additional
rainfall:

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 1 to 3
inches (25 to 75 mm), resulting in storm total rainfall maxima of up
to 10 inches (200 mm). Flooding is expected, some of which could be
significant.

Labrador and eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm).

Eastern New Brunswick: 1 inch (25 mm) with locally higher amounts.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding within the warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of
onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting Atlantic Canada, the
northeastern United States coast, and Bermuda. The swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 241432
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM HUBBARDS TO BRULE
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* ISLE-DE-LA-MADELEINE
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSON'S POND TO FRANCOIS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. ANDREWS NEW BRUNSWICK TO WEST OF HUBBARDS NOVA SCOTIA
* WEST OF BRULE NOVA SCOTIA TO CAP MADELEINE QUEBEC
* ANTICOSTI ISLAND
* SHELDRAKE QUEBEC TO NORTH OF PARSON'S POND NEWFOUNDLAND
* BOAT HARBOR TO HARE BAY NEWFOUNDLAND
* FRANCOIS TO ST LAWRENCE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BOAT HARBOR NEWFOUNDLAND TO WEST BAY LABRADOR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.9N 61.3W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT.......150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
34 KT.......270NE 350SE 350SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 960SE 780SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.9N 61.3W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.2N 61.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 50.0N 60.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 240SE 240SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 54.1N 59.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 58.1N 58.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 61.0N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 63.3N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 65.3N 56.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.9N 61.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 241144
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 40A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 AM AST Sat Sep 24 2022

...CENTER OF FIONA NOW OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.3N 61.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...340 KM NE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Brule
* Prince Edward Island
* Isle-de-la-Madeleine
* Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Francois

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Andrews New Brunswick to west of Hubbards Nova Scotia
* West of Brule Nova Scotia to Cap Madeleine Quebec
* Anticosti Island
* Sheldrake Quebec to north of Parson's Pond Newfoundland
* Boat Harbor to Hare Bay Newfoundland
* Francois to St Lawrence Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Boat Harbor Newfoundland to West Bay Labrador

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona
was located near latitude 47.3 North, longitude 61.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 23 mph (37
km/h). A slower north-northeast or northward motion is expected
through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will
move across the Gulf of St. Lawrence this morning, and then move
across Labrador and over the Labrador Sea on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days, Fiona is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds
until this afternoon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 405
miles (650 km). An observation on St. Paul Island recently
reported a sustained wind of 76 mph (122 km/h) and a gust to 90
(145 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 937 mb (27.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in portions of the
hurricane warning area in Canada. Tropical storm conditions are
occurring in portions of the tropical storm warning area in Canada.
These conditions should persist through this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Labrador on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6
inches (75 to 150 mm), with local maxima of up to 10 inches (250
mm). Flooding is expected, some of which could be significant.

Labrador and eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm).

Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding within the warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of
onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting Atlantic Canada, the
northeastern United States coast, and Bermuda. The swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 240846
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM AST Sat Sep 24 2022

Around 07Z, the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona made landfall
on the Canso Peninsula of Nova Scotia near Hart Island and
Guysborough. Surface observations indicate that the minimum
pressure at landfall was near 931 mb. The initial intensity is
decreased to a somewhat uncertain 80 kt based on earlier
scatterometer data, with these winds occurring primarily to the
east and southeast of the center.

Fiona is starting to slow its forward motion, with the initial
motion now 360/23 kt. A general northward to north-northeastward
motion with some additional decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next 60 h. A subsequent northeastward motion is then
forecast until the cyclone dissipates just after 72 h. The new
forecast track is similar to the previous track, but it lies a
little west of the previous track at 24-36 h. The new forecast
track is close to the various consensus models.

Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days,
and Fiona's winds should drop below hurricane strength in just over
12 h. After that, winds should decrease below gale force by 72 h
while the system is over the Labrador Sea. The new intensity
forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance and lies on
the upper edge of the guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone today, and significant impacts
from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of
Atlantic Canada.

2. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the
east coast of the United States, the northwestern Bahamas, Bermuda,
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 46.0N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 24/1800Z 48.7N 60.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 25/0600Z 52.2N 59.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 25/1800Z 56.0N 58.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 26/0600Z 59.4N 58.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 26/1800Z 61.9N 58.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/0600Z 64.1N 57.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 240845
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM AST Sat Sep 24 2022

...CENTER OF FIONA NOW CROSSING EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA...
...HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.0N 61.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM NE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Brule
* Prince Edward Island
* Isle-de-la-Madeleine
* Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Francois

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Andrews New Brunswick to west of Hubbards Nova Scotia
* West of Brule Nova Scotia to Cap Madeleine Quebec
* Anticosti Island
* Sheldrake Quebec to north of Parson's Pond Newfoundland
* Boat Harbor to Hare Bay Newfoundland
* Francois to St Lawrence Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Boat Harbor Newfoundland to West Bay Labrador

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona
was located near latitude 46.0 North, longitude 61.0 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 26 mph (43
km/h). A slower north-northeast or northward motion is expected
through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will
move across eastern Nova Scotia and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence
this morning, and then move across Labrador and over the Labrador
Sea on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days, Fiona is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds
until this afternoon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 405
miles (650 km). There have been many reports of hurricane-force
winds gusts in portions of eastern Nova Scotia during the past few
hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 931 mb (27.50 inches).
The Canadian station on Hart Island recently reported a pressure
of 931.6 mb (27.51 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in portions of the
hurricane warning area in Canada. Tropical storm conditions are
occurring in portions of the tropical storm warning area in Canada.
These conditions should persist through later today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Labrador on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6
inches (75 to 150 mm), with local maxima of up to 10 inches (250
mm). Flooding is expected, some of which could be significant.

Labrador and eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm).

Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding within the warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of
onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting Atlantic Canada, the
eastern United States coast, Bermuda, and the northwestern Bahamas.
The swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 240845
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
0900 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM HUBBARDS TO BRULE
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* ISLE-DE-LA-MADELEINE
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSON'S POND TO FRANCOIS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. ANDREWS NEW BRUNSWICK TO WEST OF HUBBARDS NOVA SCOTIA
* WEST OF BRULE NOVA SCOTIA TO CAP MADELEINE QUEBEC
* ANTICOSTI ISLAND
* SHELDRAKE QUEBEC TO NORTH OF PARSON'S POND NEWFOUNDLAND
* BOAT HARBOR TO HARE BAY NEWFOUNDLAND
* FRANCOIS TO ST LAWRENCE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BOAT HARBOR NEWFOUNDLAND TO WEST BAY LABRADOR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.0N 61.0W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 931 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 150SE 120SW 80NW.
50 KT.......180NE 220SE 200SW 170NW.
34 KT.......275NE 350SE 350SW 275NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 840SE 780SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.0N 61.0W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.1N 61.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 48.7N 60.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 0NW.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 140SW 100NW.
34 KT...250NE 320SE 280SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 52.2N 59.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 240SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 56.0N 58.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 59.4N 58.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 61.9N 58.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 64.1N 57.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.0N 61.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 240548
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 39A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 AM AST Sat Sep 24 2022

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NOVA
SCOTIA AS THE CENTER OF FIONA APPROACHES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.1N 61.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...220 KM ENE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...64 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Brule
* Prince Edward Island
* Isle-de-la-Madeleine
* Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Francois

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Andrews New Brunswick to west of Hubbards Nova Scotia
* West of Brule Nova Scotia to Cap Madeleine Quebec
* Anticosti Island
* Sheldrake Quebec to north of Parson's Pond Newfoundland
* Boat Harbor to Hare Bay Newfoundland
* Francois to St Lawrence Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Boat Harbor Newfoundland to West Bay Labrador

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona
was located near latitude 45.1 North, longitude 61.1 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 40 mph (64
km/h). A slower north-northeast or northward motion is expected
through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will
make landfall in eastern Nova Scotia in the next hour or two, then
move across eastern Nova Scotia overnight and into the Gulf of St.
Lawrence this morning, and then move across Labrador and over the
Labrador Sea on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (160 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days, Fiona is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds
through this morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km). Beaver Island, Nova Scotia, recently reported
sustained winds of 78 mph (126 km/h) and a wind gust of 93 mph
(150 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb (27.55 inches).
Canadian buoy 44488 recently reported a pressure of 945.3 mb
(27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are now occurring in portions of the
hurricane warning area in Canada. Tropical storm conditions are
occurring in portions of the tropical storm warning area in Canada.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Labrador on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6
inches (75 to 150 mm), with local maxima of up to 10 inches (250
mm). Flooding is expected, some of which could be significant.

Labrador and eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm).

Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding within the warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of
onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting Atlantic Canada, the
eastern United States coast, Bermuda, and the northwestern Bahamas.
The swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 240254
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

Satellite images and observations from an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that Fiona is now an intense
extratropical cyclone. The system's appearance has evolved into
a comma-shaped cloud pattern with a frontal band extending well to
the south and southwest. Data from the Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the radius of maximum winds is on the order of 100 miles or
more. Although the minimum central pressure is a very low 933 mb,
the maximum winds have decreased to near 90 kt.

The cyclone has been moving very rapidly northward or around 360/40
kt on the eastern side of a deep-layer trough. Fiona should slow
its forward speed while it interacts with the trough during the
next couple of days. The official track forecast has been adjusted
a little to the west of the previous one for the next 12-24 hours,
and is on the western side of the track model suite. Fiona's
center should move over eastern Nova Scotia shortly, and then
traverse the eastern Gulf of Saint Lawrence, eastern Labrador and
move over the southeastern Labrador Sea. It should be repeated
that strong winds, heavy rains, and storm surges are occurring well
away from the center.

Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of day, and
Fiona's winds should drop below hurricane strength in 24 hours or
so. The system should wind down to a marginal gale center after
moving into the southeastern Labrador Sea, and the global models
indicate that the system should dissipate to the west of Greenland
in about 4 days. The official intensity forecast remains on the
high end of the model guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone overnight, and significant impacts
from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of
Atlantic Canada.

2. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the
east coast of the United States, the northwestern Bahamas, Bermuda,
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 44.5N 60.8W 90 KT 105 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 24/1200Z 47.5N 60.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 25/0000Z 51.2N 60.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 25/1200Z 54.6N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 26/0000Z 58.0N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 26/1200Z 60.6N 57.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/0000Z 63.0N 57.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 240253
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING OVER NOVA SCOTIA AS
FIONA NEARS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.5N 60.8W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 46 MPH...74 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Brule
* Prince Edward Island
* Isle-de-la-Madeleine
* Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Francois

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Andrews New Brunswick to west of Hubbards Nova Scotia
* West of Brule Nova Scotia to Cap Madeleine Quebec
* Anticosti Island
* Sheldrake Quebec to north of Parson's Pond Newfoundland
* Boat Harbor to Hare Bay Newfoundland
* Francois to St Lawrence Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Boat Harbor Newfoundland to West Bay Labrador

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona
was located near latitude 44.5 North, longitude 60.8 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 46 mph (74
km/h). A slower north-northeast or northward motion is expected
through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will
move across eastern Nova Scotia overnight and into the Gulf of St.
Lawrence on Saturday morning, and then move across Labrador and
over the Labrador Sea on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days, Fiona is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds
through Saturday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km). A wind gust to 88 mph (141 km/h) was recently
observed at Beaver Island, Nova Scotia.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 933 mb (27.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in portions of the
hurricane warning area in Canada within the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in Canada. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area in Labrador on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6
inches (75 to 150 mm), with local maxima of up to 10 inches (250
mm). Flooding is expected, some of which could be significant.

Labrador and eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm).

Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding within the warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of
onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting Atlantic Canada, the
eastern United States coast, Bermuda, and the northwestern Bahamas.
The swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 240252
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
0300 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM HUBBARDS TO BRULE
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* ISLE-DE-LA-MADELEINE
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSON'S POND TO FRANCOIS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. ANDREWS NEW BRUNSWICK TO WEST OF HUBBARDS NOVA SCOTIA
* WEST OF BRULE NOVA SCOTIA TO CAP MADELEINE QUEBEC
* ANTICOSTI ISLAND
* SHELDRAKE QUEBEC TO NORTH OF PARSON'S POND NEWFOUNDLAND
* BOAT HARBOR TO HARE BAY NEWFOUNDLAND
* FRANCOIS TO ST LAWRENCE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BOAT HARBOR NEWFOUNDLAND TO WEST BAY LABRADOR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.5N 60.8W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 40 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 160SE 120SW 80NW.
50 KT.......150NE 180SE 140SW 170NW.
34 KT.......250NE 300SE 200SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 600SE 720SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.5N 60.8W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.3N 60.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 47.5N 60.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 120SE 120SW 80NW.
50 KT...150NE 180SE 140SW 170NW.
34 KT...300NE 360SE 280SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 51.2N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
34 KT...300NE 360SE 300SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 54.6N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 240SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 58.0N 57.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 60.6N 57.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 63.0N 57.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.5N 60.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 240005
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 PM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ATLANTIC CANADA
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.3N 60.7W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 46 MPH...74 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Brule
* Prince Edward Island
* Isle-de-la-Madeleine
* Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Francois

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Andrews New Brunswick to west of Hubbards Nova Scotia
* West of Brule Nova Scotia to Cap Madeleine Quebec
* Anticosti Island
* Sheldrake Quebec to north of Parson's Pond Newfoundland
* Boat Harbor to Hare Bay Newfoundland
* Francois to St Lawrence Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Boat Harbor Newfoundland to West Bay Labrador

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 42.3 North, longitude 60.7 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north near 46 mph (74 km/h). A slower
north-northeast or northward motion is expected through Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Fiona will approach Nova Scotia
tonight, move across Nova Scotia and into the Gulf of St.
Lawrence on Saturday, and then move across Labrador and over the
Labrador Sea by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast during
the next couple of days, Fiona is expected to be a powerful
hurricane-force cyclone when it moves across Atlantic Canada.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km). Sable Island, Nova Scotia, reported a wind gust of
43 mph (69 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb (27.61 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the
hurricane warning area in Canada late tonight or early Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in Canada tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Labrador on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6
inches (75 to 150 mm), with local maxima of up to 10 inches (250
mm). This rainfall could result in areas of flooding, some of
which may be significant in nature.

Labrador and eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm).

Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding within the warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of
onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the northwestern
Bahamas, the eastern United States coast, and Bermuda. These
swells are now reaching Atlantic Canada this evening. The swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 240000
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 PM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ATLANTIC CANADA
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.3N 60.70W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 46 MPH...74 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Brule
* Prince Edward Island
* Isle-de-la-Madeleine
* Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Francois

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Andrews New Brunswick to west of Hubbards Nova Scotia
* West of Brule Nova Scotia to Cap Madeleine Quebec
* Anticosti Island
* Sheldrake Quebec to north of Parson's Pond Newfoundland
* Boat Harbor to Hare Bay Newfoundland
* Francois to St Lawrence Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Boat Harbor Newfoundland to West Bay Labrador

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 42.3 North, longitude 60.7 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north near 46 mph (74 km/h). A slower
north-northeast or northward motion is expected through Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Fiona will approach Nova Scotia
tonight, move across Nova Scotia and into the Gulf of St.
Lawrence on Saturday, and then move across Labrador and over the
Labrador Sea by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast during
the next couple of days, Fiona is expected to be a powerful
hurricane-force cyclone when it moves across Atlantic Canada.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km). Sable Island, Nova Scotia, reported a wind gust of
43 mph (69 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb (27.61 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the
hurricane warning area in Canada late tonight or early Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in Canada tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Labrador on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6
inches (75 to 150 mm), with local maxima of up to 10 inches (250
mm). This rainfall could result in areas of flooding, some of
which may be significant in nature.

Labrador and eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm).

Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding within the warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of
onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the northwestern
Bahamas, the eastern United States coast, and Bermuda. These
swells are now reaching Atlantic Canada this evening. The swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 232055
TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

Fiona is beginning to take on the appearance of an extratropical
cyclone. The cloud pattern is becoming more elongated and
asymmetrical, with cooler-air stratocumulus clouds near the western
semicircle of the cyclone. The eye became obscured a few hours ago
and, assuming gradual weakening since the last Hurricane Hunter
aircraft mission into the system, the current intensity is set at
110 kt.

Satellite center fixes indicate that Fiona has been moving very
rapidly toward the north-northeast, or about 030/35 kt. The
numerical guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone will slow
its forward speed during the next few days while it interacts with
a mid- to upper-level trough. The center of Fiona is expected to
make landfall in Atlantic Canada by Saturday morning, but wind,
rain, and surge impacts will begin well before that time given the
large size of the hurricane. The NHC track forecast is mainly a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF global model solutions, and similar to
the previous official track prediction.

Fiona is expected to slowly weaken during the next few days due to
increasing shear and dry air entrainment. In 12 hours, the
system should become embedded within a baroclinic zone, and
be transformed into an extratropical cyclone. This is also
indicated by simulated infrared satellite imagery from the global
models. However, there is high confidence that Fiona will remain a
powerful cyclone, with hurricane-force winds, when it moves across
Atlantic Canada. The system should wind down into a gale center by
the time it reaches the southeastern Labrador Sea. The official
forecast is near the high end of the model guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone tonight and Saturday, and
significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall
are expected. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect
for much of Atlantic Canada.

2. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the
east coast of the United States, the northwestern Bahamas, Bermuda,
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 39.6N 61.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 44.0N 60.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 24/1800Z 47.2N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 25/0600Z 50.0N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/1800Z 54.5N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 26/0600Z 58.5N 57.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 26/1800Z 60.0N 57.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 232054
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

...POWERFUL FIONA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO
ATLANTIC CANADA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.6N 61.0W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Brule
* Prince Edward Island
* Isle-de-la-Madeleine
* Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Francois

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Andrews New Brunswick to west of Hubbards Nova Scotia
* West of Brule Nova Scotia to Cap Madeleine Quebec
* Anticosti Island
* Sheldrake Quebec to north of Parson's Pond Newfoundland
* Boat Harbor to Hare Bay Newfoundland
* Francois to St Lawrence Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Boat Harbor Newfoundland to West Bay Labrador

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 39.6 North, longitude 61.0 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north-northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h). A slower
north-northeast or northward motion is expected through Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Fiona will approach Nova Scotia
later today, move across Nova Scotia and into the Gulf of St.
Lawrence on Saturday, and then across Labrador and over the
Labrador Sea by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast
during the next couple of days, Fiona is expected to be a powerful
hurricane-force cyclone when it moves across Atlantic Canada.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the
hurricane warning area in Canada late tonight or early Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in Canada later today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Labrador on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6
inches (75 to 150 mm), with local maxima of up to 10 inches (250
mm). This rainfall could result in areas of flooding, some of
which may be significant in nature.

Labrador and eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm).

Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding within the warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of
onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the northwestern
Bahamas, the eastern United States coast, and Bermuda. These
swells will reach Atlantic Canada this evening. The swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 232054
TCMAT2

HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
2100 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM HUBBARDS TO BRULE
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* ISLE-DE-LA-MADELEINE
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSON'S POND TO FRANCOIS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. ANDREWS NEW BRUNSWICK TO WEST OF HUBBARDS NOVA SCOTIA
* WEST OF BRULE NOVA SCOTIA TO CAP MADELEINE QUEBEC
* ANTICOSTI ISLAND
* SHELDRAKE QUEBEC TO NORTH OF PARSON'S POND NEWFOUNDLAND
* BOAT HARBOR TO HARE BAY NEWFOUNDLAND
* FRANCOIS TO ST LAWRENCE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BOAT HARBOR NEWFOUNDLAND TO WEST BAY LABRADOR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 61.0W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 35 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT.......250NE 300SE 150SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 480SE 630SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 61.0W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 61.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 44.0N 60.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
50 KT...150NE 180SE 140SW 170NW.
34 KT...300NE 370SE 280SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 47.2N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
34 KT...300NE 360SE 300SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 50.0N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 240SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 54.5N 57.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 58.5N 57.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 60.0N 57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.6N 61.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 232053
TCMAT2

HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
2100 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM HUBBARDS TO BRULE
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* ISLE-DE-LA-MADELEINE
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSON'S POND TO FRANCOIS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. ANDREWS NEW BRUNSWICK TO WEST OF HUBBARDS NOVA SCOTIA
* WEST OF BRULE NOVA SCOTIA TO CAP MADELEINE QUEBEC
* ANTICOSTI ISLAND
* SHELDRAKE QUEBEC TO NORTH OF PARSON'S POND NEWFOUNDLAND
* BOAT HARBOR TO HARE BAY NEWFOUNDLAND
* FRANCOIS TO ST LAWRENCE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BOAT HARBOR NEWFOUNDLAND TO WEST BAY LABRADOR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 61.0W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 35 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT.......250NE 300SE 150SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 480SE 630SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 61.0W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 61.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 44.0N 60.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
50 KT...150NE 180SE 140SW 170NW.
34 KT...300NE 370SE 280SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 47.2N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
34 KT...300NE 360SE 300SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 50.0N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 240SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 54.5N 57.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 58.5N 57.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 60.0N 57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.6N 61.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 231755
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 PM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON ATLANTIC CANADA
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.8N 62.0W
ABOUT 475 MI...770 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Brule
* Prince Edward Island
* Isle-de-la-Madeleine
* Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Francois

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Andrews New Brunswick to west of Hubbards Nova Scotia
* West of Brule Nova Scotia to Cap Madeleine Quebec
* Anticosti Island
* Sheldrake Quebec to north of Parson's Pond Newfoundland
* Boat Harbor to Hare Bay Newfoundland
* Francois to St Lawrence Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Boat Harbor Newfoundland to West Bay Labrador

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 37.8 North, longitude 62.0 West. Fiona is moving
toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). A slower
north-northeast or northward motion is expected later today through
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will approach
Nova Scotia later today, move across Nova Scotia and into the Gulf
of St. Lawrence on Saturday, and then across Labrador and over the
Labrador Sea on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Fiona
is expected to be a powerful hurricane-force cyclone when it moves
across Atlantic Canada.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the
hurricane warning area in Canada late tonight or early Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical
storm warning area in Canada later today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Labrador on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Bermuda: Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western
Newfoundland: 3 to 6 inches (75 to 150 mm), with local maxima of up
to 10 inches (250 mm). This rainfall could result in areas of
flooding, some of which may be significant in nature.

Newfoundland and eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm).

Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding
within the warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Turks and Caicos
Islands, the Bahamas, the southeastern United States coast, and
Bermuda. These swells will continue to spread northwestward across
the western Atlantic toward the mid-Atlantic and northeast coasts of
the United States and Atlantic Canada today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 231449
TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

Fiona is pulling away from Bermuda and racing toward Atlantic
Canada. Although the core of Fiona missed Bermuda, the Bermuda
Weather Service reported that there were wind gusts up to 100 kt on
the island early this morning. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have
been investigating the major hurricane and have found that it
remains powerful and very large. The maximum flight-level wind at
700 mb was 144 kt in the southeast quadrant and the peak SFMR wind
was 109 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is nudged up
to 115 kt, which makes Fiona a very dangerous category 4 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Satellite images show
that Fiona still has a relatively well-defined eye and deep
convection over the eastern portion of the circulation, but dry air
and westerly vertical wind shear are beginning to affect the system.

Satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that Fiona is moving very
quickly to the northeast at about 30 kt. The hurricane is expected
to turn slightly to the left and slow down as it interacts and
merges with a nearby mid- to upper-level trough. The center of
Fiona is expected to make landfall in Atlantic Canada late tonight
or early Saturday, but wind, rain, and surge impacts will begin
well before that time given the large size of the hurricane. The
models suggest that Fiona will slow down significantly, but
continue a generally northward motion through the weekend and into
early next week. The NHC track forecast lies close to the middle of
the guidance envelope.

Although Fiona is expected to begin weakening soon given the
increasing shear and dry air entrainment, there is high confidence
that Fiona will be a powerful cyclone when it moves across Atlantic
Canada. The system is forecast to complete extratropical
transition when it merges with the trough just before or around the
time it makes landfall. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the
high end of the guidance in the short term, but falls in line with
the IVCN and HCCA models after that.


Key Messages:

1. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone tonight and Saturday, and
significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall
are expected. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect
for much of Atlantic Canada.

2. Tropical storm conditions will likely continue for a few
more hours in Bermuda.

3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the
east coast of the United States, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic
Canada during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 35.9N 64.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 40.8N 61.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 45.5N 60.6W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 25/0000Z 48.4N 59.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/1200Z 51.5N 57.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 26/0000Z 55.2N 57.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 26/1200Z 58.3N 56.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/1200Z 61.6N 55.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Snell

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 231443
TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

Fiona is pulling away from Bermuda and racing toward Atlantic
Canada. Although the core of Fiona missed Bermuda, the Bermuda
Weather Service reported that there were wind gusts up to 100 kt on
the island early this morning. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have
been investigating the major hurricane and have found that it
remains powerful and very large. The maximum flight-level wind at
700 mb was 144 kt in the southeast quadrant and the peak SFMR wind
was 109 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is nudged up
to 115 kt, which makes Fiona a very dangerous category 4 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Satellite images show
that Fiona still has a relatively well-defined eye and deep
convection over the eastern portion of the circulation, but dry air
and westerly vertical wind shear are beginning to affect the system.

Satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that Fiona is moving very
quickly to the northeast at about 30 kt. The hurricane is expected
to turn slightly to the left and slow down as it interacts and
merges with a nearby mid- to upper-level trough. The center of
Fiona is expected to make landfall in Atlantic Canada late tonight
or early Saturday, but wind, rain, and surge impacts will begin
well before that time given the large size of the hurricane. The
models suggest that Fiona will slow down significantly, but
continue a generally northward motion through the weekend and into
early next week. The NHC track forecast lies close to the middle of
the guidance envelope.

Although Fiona is expected to begin weakening soon given the
increasing shear and dry air entrainment, there is high confidence
that Fiona will be a powerful cyclone when it moves across Atlantic
Canada. The system is forecast to complete extratropical
transition when it merges with the trough just before or around the
time it makes landfall. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the
high end of the guidance in the short term, but falls in line with
the IVCN and HCCA models after that.


Key Messages:

1. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone tonight and Saturday, and
significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall
are expected. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect
for much of Atlantic Canada.

2. Tropical storm conditions will likely continue for a few
more hours in Bermuda.

3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the
east coast of the United States, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic
Canada during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 35.9N 64.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 40.8N 61.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 45.5N 60.6W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 25/0000Z 48.4N 59.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/1200Z 51.5N 57.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 26/0000Z 55.2N 57.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 26/1200Z 58.3N 56.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/1200Z 61.6N 55.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Wpc Forecaster

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 231438
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

...POWERFUL FIONA STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE IT RACES TOWARD
ATLANTIC CANADA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THERE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 64.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM N OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Brule
* Prince Edward Island
* Isle-de-la-Madeleine
* Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Francois

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
* St. Andrews New Brunswick to west of Hubbards Nova Scotia
* West of Brule Nova Scotia to Cap Madeleine Quebec
* Anticosti Island
* Sheldrake Quebec to north of Parson's Pond Newfoundland
* Boat Harbor to Hare Bay Newfoundland
* Francois to St Lawrence Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Boat Harbor Newfoundland to West Bay Labrador

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 35.9 North, longitude 64.2 West. Fiona is moving
toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). A slower
north-northeast or north motion is expected later today through
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will approach
Nova Scotia later today, move across Nova Scotia and into the Gulf
of St. Lawrence on Saturday, and then across Labrador and over the
Labrador Sea on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast,
Fiona is expected to be a powerful hurricane-force cyclone when it
moves across Atlantic Canada.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 936 mb (27.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda during the
next few hours.

Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the hurricane
warning area in Canada late tonight or early Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical
storm warning area in Canada later today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Labrador on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Bermuda: Rainfall is diminishing. No additional significant
rainfall expected.

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6
inches (75 to 150 mm), with local maximum up to 10 inches (250 mm).
This rainfall could result in areas of flooding, some of which may
be significant in nature.

Newfoundland and eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm).

Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding
within the warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, the southeastern United States
coast, and Bermuda. These swells will continue to spread
northwestward across the western Atlantic toward the mid-Atlantic
and northeast coasts of the United States and Atlantic Canada
today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Snell

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 231438
TCMAT2

HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM HUBBARDS TO BRULE
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* ISLE-DE-LA-MADELEINE
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSON'S POND TO FRANCOIS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
* ST. ANDREWS NEW BRUNSWICK TO WEST OF HUBBARDS NOVA SCOTIA
* WEST OF BRULE NOVA SCOTIA TO CAP MADELEINE QUEBEC
* ANTICOSTI ISLAND
* SHELDRAKE QUEBEC TO NORTH OF PARSON'S POND NEWFOUNDLAND
* BOAT HARBOR TO HARE BAY NEWFOUNDLAND
* FRANCOIS TO ST LAWRENCE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BOAT HARBOR NEWFOUNDLAND TO WEST BAY LABRADOR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 64.2W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 936 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT.......250NE 300SE 150SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 390SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 64.2W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 65.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 40.8N 61.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT...100NE 130SE 80SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 180SE 140SW 170NW.
34 KT...280NE 370SE 260SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 45.5N 60.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.
34 KT...320NE 360SE 330SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 48.4N 59.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 240SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 51.5N 57.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 55.2N 57.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 58.3N 56.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 61.6N 55.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.9N 64.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/SNELL

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 231147
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

...POWERFUL FIONA MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ATLANTIC CANADA
LATE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 64.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM N OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has changed the Hurricane Warning to a
Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Brule
* Prince Edward Island
* Isle-de-la-Madeleine
* Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Francois

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
* St. Andrews New Brunswick to west of Hubbards Nova Scotia
* West of Brule Nova Scotia to Cap Madeleine Quebec
* Anticosti Island
* Sheldrake Quebec to north of Parson's Pond Newfoundland
* Boat Harbor to Hare Bay Newfoundland
* Francois to St Lawrence Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Boat Harbor Newfoundland to West Bay Labrador

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 64.9 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north-northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). A north-northeast
or northeastward motion with an additional increase in forward speed
is expected today. Some reduction in forward speed with a turn
toward the north is forecast tonight through Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Fiona will pass to the northwest of
Bermuda during the next few hours. Fiona's center will then
approach Nova Scotia later today, move across Nova Scotia and into
the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Saturday, and then across Labrador
and over the Labrador Sea on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight weakening is forecast today,
however, Fiona is forecast to be a large and powerful post-tropical
cyclone with hurricane-force winds when it approaches and moves over
Nova Scotia tonight and Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km). Elevated automated stations on Bermuda recently
recorded sustained winds between 65-70 mph (105-115 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an
Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 936 mb (27.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda during the
next several hours.

Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the hurricane
warning area in Canada by late tonight or early Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical
storm warning area in Canada by late today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Labrador on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Bermuda: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6
inches (75 to 150 mm), with local maximum up to 10 inches (250 mm).
This rainfall could result in areas of flooding, some of which may
be significant in nature.

Newfoundland: 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm).

Eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm).

Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will cause elevated water levels along
the coast of Bermuda in areas of onshore winds today. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding within the
warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, the southeastern United States
coast, and Bermuda. These swells will continue to spread
northwestward across the western Atlantic toward the mid-Atlantic
and northeast coasts of the United States and Atlantic Canada
today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 230853
TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

Fiona is feeling the first effects of the mid-latitude westerlies,
with the eye becoming less distinct during the past few hours and
the central convection becoming more ragged. In addition,
satellite imagery shows a cold front approaching the cyclone from
the west. However, these changes have not yet caused much change
in strength. An earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission
found the central pressure was 936 mb, and it reported 132-kt
700-mb flight-level winds in the southeastern eyewall. The maximum
surface wind estimates from the SFMR were under 100 kt, so the
initial intensity of 110 kt is a compromise between the SFMR winds
and the higher intensity suggested by the flight-level wind.

Fiona is accelerating to the north-northeast with the initial
motion now 030/22 kt. Interaction with the strong deep-layer
trough moving eastward into the northwestern Atlantic should cause
the hurricane to speed up further during the next day or so,
reaching peak speeds of 30-35 kt as it approaches Nova Scotia.
As stated in the previous advisory, Fiona should merge with the
trough soon after 24 hours, slow down a bit, but continue moving
northward across Atlantic Canada to the Labrador Sea during the
balance of the forecast period. There are no significant changes
to the track guidance for this advisory, and the new track forecast
is an update of the previous forecast.

Fiona should start to undergo extratropical transition during the
next 12 h, with the transition likely to be complete just after the
24 h point. While the cyclone will weaken some during the
transition, it is expected to remain a powerful hurricane-force
cyclone as it crosses Nova Scotia into the Gulf of St. Lawrence.
Continued weakening is expected after that, and winds could drop
below gale force by day 5 when the post-tropical low is over the
Labrador Sea. The new intensity forecast had some minor adjustments
from the previous forecast and it follows the overall trend of the
intensity guidance, including the global models.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda overnight.
Conditions should diminish below tropical storm force during the
day on Friday.

2. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and
significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall
are likely. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings have now been
issued for much of Atlantic Canada.

3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the
east coast of the United States, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic
Canada during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 33.8N 66.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 37.9N 63.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 43.2N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 47.0N 61.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/0600Z 50.1N 59.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/1800Z 53.8N 58.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 26/0600Z 57.5N 58.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/0600Z 62.5N 57.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 28/0600Z 65.0N 57.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 230849
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

...CENTER OF FIONA PASSING NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN NOVA SCOTIA BY EARLY SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 66.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
* Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Brule
* Prince Edward Island
* Isle-de-la-Madeleine
* Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Francois

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Andrews New Brunswick to west of Hubbards Nova Scotia
* West of Brule Nova Scotia to Cap Madeleine Quebec
* Anticosti Island
* Sheldrake Quebec to north of Parson's Pond Newfoundland
* Boat Harbor to Hare Bay Newfoundland
* Francois to St Lawrence Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Boat Harbor Newfoundland to West Bay Labrador

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 66.8 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north-northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). A north-northeast
or northeastward motion with an additional increase in forward
speed is expected today. Some reduction in forward speed with a
turn toward the north is forecast tonight through Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Fiona will pass to the northwest of
Bermuda during the next few hours. Fiona's center will then
approach Nova Scotia later today, move across Nova Scotia and into
the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Saturday, and then across Labrador over
the Labrador Sea on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight weakening is forecast today,
however Fiona is forecast to be a large and powerful post-tropical
cyclone with hurricane-force winds when it approaches and moves
over Nova Scotia tonight and Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km). Elevated automated stations on Bermuda are reporting
sustained winds between 65-70 mph (105-115 km/h), with a maximum
wind gust of 93 mph (150 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 936 mb (27.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions continue on Bermuda, with
hurricane conditions expected during the next several hours.
Tropical storm conditions should diminish later during the day
today.

Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the hurricane
warning area in Canada by late tonight or early Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical
storm warning area in Canada by late today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Labrador on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Bermuda: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6
inches (75 to 150 mm), with local maximum up to 10 inches (250 mm).
This rainfall could result in areas of flooding, some of which may
be significant in nature.

Newfoundland: 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm).

Eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm).

Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will cause elevated water levels along
the coast of Bermuda in areas of onshore winds beginning today.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding within the
warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, the southeastern United States
coast, and Bermuda. These swells will continue to spread
northwestward across the western Atlantic toward the mid-Atlantic
and northeast coasts of the United States and Atlantic Canada
today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 230849
TCMAT2

HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
0900 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM HUBBARDS TO BRULE
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* ISLE-DE-LA-MADELEINE
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSON'S POND TO FRANCOIS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. ANDREWS NEW BRUNSWICK TO WEST OF HUBBARDS NOVA SCOTIA
* WEST OF BRULE NOVA SCOTIA TO CAP MADELEINE QUEBEC
* ANTICOSTI ISLAND
* SHELDRAKE QUEBEC TO NORTH OF PARSON'S POND NEWFOUNDLAND
* BOAT HARBOR TO HARE BAY NEWFOUNDLAND
* FRANCOIS TO ST LAWRENCE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BOAT HARBOR NEWFOUNDLAND TO WEST BAY LABRADOR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 66.8W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 936 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT.......250NE 300SE 150SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 390SE 390SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 66.8W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 67.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 37.9N 63.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 130SW 110NW.
34 KT...270NE 330SE 220SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 43.2N 62.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 40NW.
50 KT...160NE 200SE 170SW 160NW.
34 KT...290NE 350SE 310SW 280NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 47.0N 61.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 30NW.
50 KT...140NE 180SE 140SW 110NW.
34 KT...270NE 360SE 330SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 50.1N 59.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 250SE 200SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 53.8N 58.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 57.5N 58.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 62.5N 57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 65.0N 57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 66.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 230537
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON BERMUDA WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 67.9W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM W OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
* Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Brule
* Prince Edward Island
* Isle-de-la-Madeleine
* Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Francois

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Andrews New Brunswick to west of Hubbards Nova Scotia
* West of Brule Nova Scotia to Cap Madeleine Quebec
* Anticosti Island
* Sheldrake Quebec to north of Parson's Pond Newfoundland
* Boat Harbor to Hare Bay Newfoundland
* Francois to St Lawrence Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Boat Harbor Newfoundland to West Bay Labrador

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 67.9 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h). A north-northeast
or northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected today. Some reduction in forward speed with a turn toward
the north is forecast tonight through Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center of Fiona will pass just to the west of Bermuda
during the next several hours. Fiona's center will then approach
Nova Scotia later today, move across Nova Scotia and into the Gulf
of St. Lawrence on Saturday, and then across Labrador over the
Labrador Sea on Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with
higher gusts. Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight weakening is forecast to begin
later today, however Fiona is forecast to be a large and powerful
post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds when it approaches
and moves over Nova Scotia tonight and Saturday.

Fiona is a large tropical cyclone, with hurricane-force winds
extending outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).
Elevated automated stations on Bermuda are reporting sustained winds
between 60-65 mph (95-105 km/h), with a maximum wind gust of 79 mph
(128 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 935 mb (27.61 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions continue on Bermuda, with
hurricane conditions expected during the next several hours.
Tropical storm conditions should diminish later during the day
today.

Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the hurricane
warning area in Canada by late tonight or early Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical
storm warning area in Canada by late today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Labrador on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Bermuda: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm).

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6
inches (75 to 150 mm), with local maximum up to 10 inches (250 mm).
This rainfall could result in areas of flooding, some of which may
be significant in nature.

Eastern Newfoundland: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

Eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm).

Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will cause elevated water levels along
the coast of Bermuda in areas of onshore winds beginning tonight.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding within the
warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, the southeastern United States
coast, and Bermuda. These swells will continue to spread
northwestward across the western Atlantic toward the mid-Atlantic
and northeast coasts of the United States and Atlantic Canada
today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 230257
TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 22 2022

Fiona's satellite appearance looks a little more asymmetric this
evening, with deep convection and upper-level outflow becoming more
restricted on the western side. That said, the hurricane has not
yet lost any intensity. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
mission measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 123 kt and SFMR
winds as high as 110 kt, which support maintaining a 115-kt
intensity on this advisory. In addition, dropsonde data indicate
that the central pressure has fallen further to 932 mb, and the
SFMR instrument measured hurricane-force winds now extending 100 n
mi to the southeast of the center.

The hurricane is still accelerating toward the north-northeast with
an initial motion estimate of 030/18 kt. Fiona is getting closer
to a deep-layer trough currently located over the northeastern
United States, and this feature is expected to cause the hurricane
to speed up further during the next day or so, reaching peak speeds
of 30-35 kt by 24 hours as it approaches Nova Scotia. Fiona should
merge with the trough soon after 24 hours, slow down a bit, but
continue moving northward across Atlantic Canada to the Labrador
Sea. The previous official forecast appears on track based on the
latest guidance, and no significant changes were made to the new
forecast.

Fiona is forecast to remain over warm waters, including within the
Gulf Stream current, during the next 24 hours, although deep-layer
shear is forecast to increase substantially in 12-24 hours. Given
the hurricane's current appearance, some gradual weakening is
anticipated during the next day or so. Extratropical transition
should begin on Friday, and that process is expected to be quick,
with Fiona becoming a warm-seclusion-type extratropical low Friday
night before the center reaches Nova Scotia. Although continued
weakening is forecast thereafter, Fiona is expected to maintain
hurricane-force winds through 48 hours while it moves across the
Gulf of St. Lawrence. Winds could drop below gale force by day 5
when the post-tropical low is over the Labrador Sea. After 24
hours, the NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF
global model solutions.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda overnight.
Conditions should diminish below tropical storm force during the
day on Friday.

2. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and
significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall
are likely. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings have now been
issued for much of Atlantic Canada.

3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the
east coast of the United States, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic
Canada during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 31.9N 68.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 34.8N 65.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 40.9N 61.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 45.8N 61.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/0000Z 48.7N 60.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/1200Z 52.2N 58.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 26/0000Z 56.2N 57.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/0000Z 62.0N 57.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 28/0000Z 64.8N 56.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 230256
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 22 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING ON BERMUDA WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 68.1W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM W OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has upgraded all Hurricane Watches to
Hurricane Warnings, and all Tropical Storm Watches to Tropical
Storm Warnings, with a few additional modifications.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
* Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Brule
* Prince Edward Island
* Isle-de-la-Madeleine
* Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Francois

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Andrews New Brunswick to west of Hubbards Nova Scotia
* West of Brule Nova Scotia to Cap Madeleine Quebec
* Anticosti Island
* Sheldrake Quebec to north of Parson's Pond Newfoundland
* Boat Harbor to Hare Bay Newfoundland
* Francois to St Lawrence Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Boat Harbor Newfoundland to West Bay Labrador

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 68.1 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h). A north-northeast
or northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected through Friday. Some reduction in forward speed with a
turn toward the north is forecast Friday night through Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Fiona will pass just to the west
of Bermuda overnight. Fiona's center will then approach Nova
Scotia on Friday, move across Nova Scotia and into the Gulf of
St. Lawrence on Saturday, and then across Labrador over the
Labrador Sea on Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with
higher gusts. Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight weakening is forecast to begin
tonight or on Friday, however Fiona is forecast to be a large and
powerful post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds when it
approaches and moves over Nova Scotia Friday night and Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 932 mb (27.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions have begun on Bermuda, with
hurricane conditions expected overnight. Tropical storm conditions
should diminish during the day on Friday.

Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the hurricane
warning area in Canada by late Friday night or early Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical
storm warning area in Canada by late Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Labrador on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Bermuda: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm).

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6
inches (75 to 150 mm), with local maximum up to 10 inches (250 mm).
This rainfall could result in areas of flooding, some of which may
be significant in nature.

Eastern Newfoundland: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

Eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm).

Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will cause elevated water levels along
the coast of Bermuda in areas of onshore winds beginning tonight.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding within the
warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, the southeastern United States
coast, and Bermuda. These swells will continue to spread
northwestward across the western Atlantic toward the mid-Atlantic
and northeast coasts of the United States and Atlantic Canada
tonight and on Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 230256
TCMAT2

HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
0300 UTC FRI SEP 23 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS UPGRADED ALL HURRICANE WATCHES TO
HURRICANE WARNINGS...AND ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES TO TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS...WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL MODIFICATIONS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM HUBBARDS TO BRULE
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* ISLE-DE-LA-MADELEINE
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSON'S POND TO FRANCOIS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. ANDREWS NEW BRUNSWICK TO WEST OF HUBBARDS NOVA SCOTIA
* WEST OF BRULE NOVA SCOTIA TO CAP MADELEINE QUEBEC
* ANTICOSTI ISLAND
* SHELDRAKE QUEBEC TO NORTH OF PARSON'S POND NEWFOUNDLAND
* BOAT HARBOR TO HARE BAY NEWFOUNDLAND
* FRANCOIS TO ST LAWRENCE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BOAT HARBOR NEWFOUNDLAND TO WEST BAY LABRADOR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 68.1W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT.......220NE 240SE 150SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 330SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 68.1W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 69.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 34.8N 65.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 130SW 110NW.
34 KT...240NE 260SE 220SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 40.9N 61.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 40NW.
50 KT...160NE 200SE 170SW 160NW.
34 KT...290NE 350SE 310SW 280NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 45.8N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 30NW.
50 KT...150NE 200SE 160SW 140NW.
34 KT...290NE 380SE 350SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 48.7N 60.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...190NE 270SE 250SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 52.2N 58.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 56.2N 57.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 62.0N 57.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 64.8N 56.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 68.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 222344
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 PM AST Thu Sep 22 2022

...FIONA FORECAST TO MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY...
...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM WIND, STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 69.1W
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1000 MI...1610 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Brule
* Prince Edward Island
* Isle-de-la-Madeleine
* Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Indian Harbour

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Andrews New Brunswick to west of Hubbards Nova Scotia
* West of Brule Nova Scotia to Cap Madeleine Quebec
* Anticosti Island
* Sheldrake Quebec to north of Parson's Pond Newfoundland
* West Bay Labrador to Hare Bay Newfoundland
* Indian Harbour to St Lawrence Newfoundland

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude
30.8 North, longitude 69.1 West. Fiona is moving toward the
north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A north-northeastward or
northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
through Friday, followed by a somewhat slower northward motion
beginning Friday night, and this motion should continue through late
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will pass just
to the west of Bermuda tonight, approach Nova Scotia on Friday, and
move across Nova Scotia and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight weakening is expected to begin
tonight or Friday, however Fiona is forecast to be a large and
powerful post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds when it
moves over Nova Scotia Friday night and Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 932 mb (27.52 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
tonight and continuing through Friday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda during the next few
hours.

Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the hurricane
watch area in Canada by late Friday night. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the tropical storm watch
area in Canada by late Friday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Bermuda: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm).

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6
inches (75 to 150 mm), with local maximum up to 10 inches (250 mm).
This rainfall could result in areas of flooding, some of which may
be significant in nature.

Eastern Newfoundland: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

Eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm).

Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will cause elevated water levels along
the coast of Bermuda in areas of onshore winds beginning tonight.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding within the
watch areas in Atlantic Canada. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, the southeastern United States
coast, and Bermuda. These swells will continue to spread
northwestward across the western Atlantic toward the mid-Atlantic
and northeast coasts of the United States over the next day or so.
The swells will also reach Atlantic Canada on Friday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 222042
TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Thu Sep 22 2022

The satellite presentation of Fiona has recovered somewhat since
this morning with the eye becoming a little better defined, and
a ring of convection with cloud tops of -65 to-70 degrees
surrounding the center. There is a fairly large spread in the
subjective and objective satellite estimates, which range from
102 kt to 124 kt. The initial wind speed remains near the mid
point of estimates at 115 kt, which was supported by the earlier
aircraft reconnaissance data. The next reconnaissance flight is
scheduled into the hurricane this evening.

The hurricane continues to accelerate north-northeastward with an
initial motion estimate of 025/17 kt. The track forecast
reasoning has not changed from the previous advisory. Fiona is
forecast to continue to accelerate north-northeastward tonight,
with the hurricane making its closest approach to Bermuda overnight
or early tomorrow. On Friday, a vigorous mid-latitude trough that
is forecast to move off the coast of the northeastern United States
should cause Fiona to turn northward toward Atlantic Canada. The
dynamic models are in good agreement that the cyclone will pass
over portions of eastern Nova Scotia by Saturday morning, and then
move more slowly northward over the Gulf of St. Lawrence and
portions of Newfoundland and Labrador over the weekend. The track
guidance remains tightly clustered, and the official forecast lies
near the center of the model envelope.

Fiona is expected to remain in a low shear environment and over warm
water for the next 12-24 hours. Therefore, little change in
intensity is expected during that time. After 24 hours, the system
will interact with the aforementioned trough, and Fiona is forecast
to transition into a powerful post-tropical cyclone with
hurricane-force winds Friday night. Gradual weakening is predicted
later in the weekend while the system moves northward over
Newfoundland and Labrador.

The cyclone is forecast to grow in size as it approaches Atlantic
Canada, and earlier ASCAT data showed that the tropical-storm-force
winds have already expanded over the eastern portion of the storm.
The initial and forecast wind radii have been adjusted accordingly.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight through
Friday morning.

2. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and
significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall
are becoming increasingly likely. Hurricane and Tropical Storm
Watches are in effect for much of Atlantic Canada.

3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the
east coast of the United States, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic
Canada during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 30.4N 69.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 32.8N 67.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 37.8N 63.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 43.8N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/1800Z 47.3N 60.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/0600Z 50.4N 59.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/1800Z 53.9N 58.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/1800Z 60.9N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/1800Z 64.3N 57.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 222041
TCMAT2

HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
2100 UTC THU SEP 22 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM HUBBARDS TO BRULE
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* ISLE-DE-LA-MADELEINE
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSON'S POND TO INDIAN HARBOUR

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. ANDREWS NEW BRUNSWICK TO WEST OF HUBBARDS NOVA SCOTIA
* WEST OF BRULE NOVA SCOTIA TO CAP MADELEINE QUEBEC
* ANTICOSTI ISLAND
* SHELDRAKE QUEBEC TO NORTH OF PARSON'S POND NEWFOUNDLAND
* WEST BAY LABRADOR TO HARE BAY NEWFOUNDLAND
* INDIAN HARBOUR TO ST LAWRENCE NEWFOUNDLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 69.5W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 936 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 45SW 50NW.
50 KT.......110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT.......180NE 240SE 130SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 240SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 69.5W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 69.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 32.8N 67.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 37.8N 63.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 60NW.
50 KT...140NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...240NE 300SE 270SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 43.8N 61.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 120SE 80SW 70NW.
50 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.
34 KT...300NE 360SE 330SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 47.3N 60.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 300SE 300SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 50.4N 59.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 53.9N 58.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 85SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 60.9N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 64.3N 57.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 69.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 222041
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Thu Sep 22 2022

...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ON BERMUDA AS FIONA APPROACHES...
...RISK OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM WIND, STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL INCREASING FOR ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 69.5W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Brule
* Prince Edward Island
* Isle-de-la-Madeleine
* Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Indian Harbour

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Andrews New Brunswick to west of Hubbards Nova Scotia
* West of Brule Nova Scotia to Cap Madeleine Quebec
* Anticosti Island
* Sheldrake Quebec to north of Parson's Pond Newfoundland
* West Bay Labrador to Hare Bay Newfoundland
* Indian Harbour to St Lawrence Newfoundland

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 69.5 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A north-
northeastward or northeastward motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected through Friday, followed by a somewhat slower
northward motion beginning Friday night, and this motion should
continue through late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center
of Fiona will pass just to the west of Bermuda tonight, approach
Nova Scotia on Friday, and move across Nova Scotia and into the
Gulf of St. Lawrence on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight weakening is expected to begin
tonight or Friday, however Fiona is forecast to be a large and
powerful post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds when it
moves over Nova Scotia Friday night and Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 936 mb (27.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
tonight and continuing through Friday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda this evening.

Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the hurricane
watch area in Canada by late Friday night. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the tropical storm watch
area in Canada by late Friday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Bermuda: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm).

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6
inches (75 to 150 mm), with local maximum up to 10 inches (250 mm).
This rainfall could result in areas of flooding, some of which may
be significant in nature.

Eastern Newfoundland: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

Eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm).

Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will cause elevated water levels along
the coast of Bermuda in areas of onshore winds beginning tonight.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding within the
watch areas in Atlantic Canada. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, the southeastern United States
coast, and Bermuda. These swells will continue to spread
northwestward across the western Atlantic toward the mid-Atlantic
and northeast coasts of the United States over the next day or so.
The swells will also reach Atlantic Canada on Friday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 221752
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...OUTER BANDS OF FIONA REACHING BERMUDA...
...RISK OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM WIND, STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL INCREASING FOR ATLANTIC CANADA...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 69.8W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has extended the Hurricane Watch
along the coast of Newfoundland eastward to Indian Harbour, and has
extended the Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of Quebec westward
to Sheldrake.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Brule
* Prince Edward Island
* Isle-de-la-Madeleine
* Newfoundland from Parson?--s Pond to Indian Harbour

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Andrews New Brunswick to west of Hubbards Nova Scotia
* West of Brule Nova Scotia to Cap Madeleine Quebec
* Anticosti Island
* Sheldrake Quebec to north of Parson's Pond Newfoundland
* West Bay Labrador to Hare Bay Newfoundland
* Indian Harbour to St Lawrence Newfoundland

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 69.8 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A north-
northeastward or northeastward motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected through Friday, followed by a somewhat slower
northward motion beginning Friday night or Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Fiona will pass just to the west of
Bermuda tonight, approach Nova Scotia on Friday, and move across
Nova Scotia and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected today.
Some weakening is expected to begin tonight or Friday, but Fiona is
forecast be a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone with
hurricane-force winds when it moves over Nova Scotia Friday night
and Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 936 mb (27.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
tonight and continuing through Friday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda later today.

Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the hurricane
watch area in Canada by late Friday night. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the tropical storm watch
area in Canada by late Friday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Bermuda: 2 to 4 inches.

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6
inches, with local maximum up to 10 inches. This rainfall could
result in areas of flooding, some of which may be significant in
nature.

Eastern Newfoundland: 1 to 3 inches.

Eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches.

Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will cause elevated water levels along
the coast of Bermuda in areas of onshore winds beginning tonight.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding within the
watch areas in Atlantic Canada. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, the southeastern United States
coast, and Bermuda. These swells will continue to spread
northwestward across the western Atlantic toward the mid-Atlantic
and northeast coasts of the United States over the next day or so.
The swells will also reach Atlantic Canada on Friday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 221450
TCMAT2

HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
1500 UTC THU SEP 22 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR NOVA
SCOTIA FROM HUBBARDS TO BRULE, PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND, ISLE-DE-LA-
MADELEINE, AND THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSON?--S POND TO
PORT-AUX-BASQUES.

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS A ISSUED TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
ST. ANDREWS NEW BRUNSWICK TO WEST OF HUBBARDS NOVA SCOTIA, AND
FROM WEST OF BRULE NOVA SCOTIA TO CAP MADELEINE QUEBEC. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR ANTICOSTI ISLAND AND
FROM JOHAN BEETZ BAY QUEBEC TO NORTH OF PARSON'S POND
NEWFOUNDLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM WEST
BAY LABRADOR TO HARE BAY NEWFOUNDLAND AND FROM ST. LAWRENCE TO
EAST OF PORT-AUX-BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND.

NOTE THAT THESE WATCHES DO NOT INCLUDE THE AVALON AND BONAVISTA
PENINSULAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM HUBBARDS TO BRULE
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* ISLE-DE-LA-MADELEINE
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSON?--S POND TO PORT-AUX-BASQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. ANDREWS NEW BRUNSWICK TO WEST OF HUBBARDS NOVA SCOTIA
* WEST OF BRULE NOVA SCOTIA TO CAP MADELEINE QUEBEC
* ANTICOSTI ISLAND
* JOHAN BEETZ BAY QUEBEC TO NORTH OF PARSON'S POND NEWFOUNDLAND
* WEST BAY LABRADOR TO HARE BAY NEWFOUNDLAND
* ST. LAWRENCE TO EAST OF PORT-AUX-BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 70.2W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 936 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 55NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT.......150NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 70.2W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 70.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.7N 68.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 34.6N 65.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 110SW 100NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 210SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 40.6N 61.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 120SE 80SW 70NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 330SE 300SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 45.5N 61.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 120SE 80SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 330SE 300SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 48.1N 60.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...220NE 270SE 260SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 51.8N 59.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 58.9N 58.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 64.2N 57.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 70.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 221451
TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

The satellite presentation of the hurricane is not quite as
impressive as yesterday. The large eye has become cloud filled and
the surrounding cloud top temperatures are not quite as cold. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has very recently reported a
peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 126 kt in the southeastern eyewall.
The peak SFMR winds have been 107 kt and latest minimum central
pressure is around 936 mb. These data support maintaining the
initial intensity of 115 kt. A NOAA Saildrone located about 45 n mi
east of the center has recently reported sustained winds of 67 kt
and a significant wave height of 50 ft.

The hurricane is beginning to accelerate north-northeastward with an
initial motion estimate of 025/13 kt. Additional acceleration is
expected while Fiona moves north-northeastward along the southern
edge of the mid-latitude westerlies through tonight. On Friday, a
vigorous mid-latitude trough moving off the coast of the
northeastern U.S. is expected to steer Fiona northward toward
Atlantic Canada. The storm is forecast to pass over portions of
eastern Nova Scotia by Saturday morning, and a slower northward or
north-northeastward motion over the Gulf of St. Lawrence and
portions of Newfoundland and Labrador is expected after that time.
The track guidance remains in very good agreement, and the new
official forecast is once again essentially an update of the
previous one.

Only a slight decrease in intensity is predicted over the next 12-24
hours while Fiona remains over warm waters and in a low-shear
environment. By 36 hours, interaction with the aforementioned trough
will begin extratropical transition, and this process is forecast to
be complete by 48 hours when the system is near Nova Scotia. The
global model guidance indicates that the post-tropical cyclone will
continue to produce hurricane-force winds when it reaches Nova
Scotia. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and closely follows the global model guidance during the
post-tropical phase.

Based on the latest forecast the Canadian Hurricane Centre has
issued Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches for much of Atlantic
Canada.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight through
Friday morning.

2. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and
significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall
are becoming increasingly likely. Hurricane and Tropical Storm
Watches have been issued for much of Atlantic Canada.

3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the
east coast of the United States, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic
Canada during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 28.6N 70.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 30.7N 68.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 34.6N 65.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 40.6N 61.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 45.5N 61.2W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/0000Z 48.1N 60.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/1200Z 51.8N 59.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/1200Z 58.9N 58.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/1200Z 64.2N 57.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 221451
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...LARGE AND POWERFUL FIONA MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 70.2W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1165 MI...1870 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Hurricane Watch for Nova
Scotia from Hubbards to Brule, Prince Edward Island, Isle-de-la-
Madeleine, and the coast of Newfoundland from Parson?--s Pond to
Port-Aux-Basques.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has a issued Tropical Storm Watch from
St. Andrews, New Brunswick to west of Hubbards, Nova Scotia, and
from west of Brule, Nova Scotia to Cap Madeleine, Quebec. A Tropical
Storm Watch has also been issued for Anticosti Island, and from
Johan Beetz Bay, Quebec to north of Parson's Pond, Newfoundland. A
Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued from West Bay, Labrador to
Hare Bay, Newfoundland, and from St. Lawrence to east of Port-Aux-
Basques, Newfoundland.

Note that these watches do not include the Avalon and Bonavista
peninsulas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Brule
* Prince Edward Island
* Isle-de-la-Madeleine
* Newfoundland from Parson?--s Pond to Port-Aux-Basques

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Andrews New Brunswick to west of Hubbards Nova Scotia
* West of Brule Nova Scotia to Cap Madeleine Quebec
* Anticosti Island
* Johan Beetz Bay Quebec to north of Parson's Pond Newfoundland
* West Bay Labrador to Hare Bay Newfoundland
* St. Lawrence to east of Port-Aux-Basques Newfoundland

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 70.2 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A north-
northeastward or northeastward motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected through Friday, followed by a somewhat slower
northward motion beginning Friday night or Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Fiona will pass just to the west of
Bermuda tonight, approach Nova Scotia on Friday, and move across
Nova Scotia and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Saturday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with
higher gusts. Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected today.
Some weakening is expected to begin tonight or Friday, but Fiona
is forecast be a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone with
hurricane-force winds when it moves over Nova Scotia Friday night
and Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km). A NOAA Saildrone located about 50 miles east of
the center has recently reported sustained winds of 77 mph (124
km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 936 mb (27.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
tonight and continuing through Friday morning.

Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the hurricane
watch area in Canada by late Friday night. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the tropical storm watch
area in Canada by late Friday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Bermuda: 2 to 4 inches.

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6
inches, with local maximum up to 10 inches. This rainfall could
result in areas of flooding, some of which may be significant in
nature.

Eastern Newfoundland: 1 to 3 inches.

Eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches.

Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will cause elevated water levels along
the coast of Bermuda in areas of onshore winds beginning tonight.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, the southeastern United States
coast, and Bermuda. These swells will continue to spread
northwestward across the western Atlantic toward the mid-Atlantic
and northeast coasts of the United States over the next day or so.
The swells will also reach Atlantic Canada on Friday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 221159
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...POWERFUL FIONA MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN BERMUDA LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 70.6W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1210 MI...1950 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of this
system. Watches will likely be required for portions of Atlantic
Canada later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 70.6 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A north-
northeastward or northeastward motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected today through Friday, followed by a somewhat
slower northward motion beginning Friday night or Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Fiona will pass just to the west of
Bermuda tonight, approach Nova Scotia on Friday, and move across
Nova Scotia and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected through
tonight. Some weakening is expected to begin on Friday, but Fiona
is forecast be a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone with
hurricane-force winds when it moves over Nova Scotia Friday night
and Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km). NOAA buoy 41047, about 65 miles west-southwest of
the center of Fiona, recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph
(83 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (107 km/h) within the past hour or
two. A NOAA Saildrone located about 75 miles east-northeast of the
center has recently reported sustained winds of 56 mph (91 km/h).

The estimted minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
tonight and continuing through Friday morning.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Bermuda: 2 to 4 inches.

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6
inches, with local maximum up to 10 inches. This rainfall could
result in areas of flooding, some of which may be significant in
nature.

Eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches.

Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will cause elevated water levels along
the coast of Bermuda in areas of onshore winds beginning tonight.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, the southeastern United States
coast, and Bermuda. These swells will continue to spread
northwestward across the western Atlantic toward the mid-Atlantic
and northeast coasts of the United States over the next day or so.
The swells will also reach Atlantic Canada on Friday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 220857
TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

Fiona is showing signs of slow decay in satellite imagery, with the
eye gradually becoming cloud filled and the eyewall convection
becoming more ragged. However, this has not yet led to a
significant decrease in the satellite intensity estimates, which
range from 100-130 kt. The initial intensity is held at 115 kt
pending the arrival of the next Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft, but this could be a little generous.

The hurricane has turned north-northeastward during the past several
hours with the initial motion now 025/11 kt. Fiona is expected to
accelerate in a generally north-northeasterly direction for the next
24 h or so as it is steered along the southern edge of the
mid-latitude westerlies. This motion should take the center
northwest of Bermuda in 24-30 h. After that time, an even faster
motion is forecast as the hurricane interacts with a powerful
deep-layer trough moving into the Atlantic from the northeastern
United States. This interaction should steer the cyclone toward
Atlantic Canada later Friday and Friday night. After 48 h, a
northward motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected, with the
center moving near or over, eastern Nova Scotia, the Gulf of St.
Lawrence, and portions of Newfoundland and Labrador into the
Labrador Sea by days 4 and 5. The track guidance remains very
tightly clustered, and the new NHC track forecast is again mainly an
update of the previous prediction.

Little change, or perhaps a slow decrease in intensity is expected
during the next 24 h or so while Fiona remains over warm waters of
29-30 degrees Celsius and in a generally low-shear environment.
After that, interaction with the aforementioned mid-latitude trough
should begin the process of extratropical transition, which should
complete between 48-60 h as the center of Fiona approaches Nova
Scotia. The extratropical low is forecast to continue producing
hurricane-force winds as it crosses Nova Scotia and moves into the
Gulf of St. Lawrence through 60 h, and it is expected to continue
producing gale-force winds as it moves across Newfoundland and
Labrador until near the end of the forecast period. There is little
change in the intensity guidance from the previous advisory, and
there are only minor changes in the intensity forecast.

The wind radii were modified based on a combination of
scatterometer and synthetic aperture radar data.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight through
Friday morning, and a Hurricane Warning has been issued for the
island.

2. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and
significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy
rainfall are becoming increasingly likely. Interests in these
areas should closely monitor the progress of Fiona and updates to
the forecast.

3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause dangerous
and possibly life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along
the east coast of the United States, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
Atlantic Canada during the next few days. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 27.4N 70.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 29.3N 69.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 32.5N 66.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 37.4N 63.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 43.0N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 46.7N 60.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/0600Z 49.7N 60.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/0600Z 57.0N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/0600Z 62.5N 58.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 220849
TCMAT2

HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
0900 UTC THU SEP 22 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

INTERESTS IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
CANADA LATER THIS MORNING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 70.6W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 55NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT.......150NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 70.6W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 71.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.3N 69.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 32.5N 66.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 190SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 37.4N 63.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 50NW.
50 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...230NE 260SE 230SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 43.0N 61.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 110SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...150NE 180SE 140SW 150NW.
34 KT...280NE 300SE 280SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 46.7N 60.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 130NW.
34 KT...250NE 290SE 260SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 49.7N 60.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...210NE 250SE 200SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 57.0N 58.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 62.5N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 70.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 220850
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...FIONA NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 70.6W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1250 MI...2010 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has issued a Hurricane
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of this
system. Watches will likely be required for portions of Atlantic
Canada later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 70.6 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A north-
northeastward or northeastward motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected today through Friday, followed by a somewhat
slower northward motion beginning Friday night or Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Fiona will pass just to the west of
Bermuda tonight, approach Nova Scotia on Friday, and move across
Nova Scotia and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected through
tonight. Some weakening is expected to begin on Friday, but Fiona
is forecast to still be producing hurricane-force winds Friday
night and Saturday after it has become post-tropical.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km). NOAA buoy 41047, about 50 miles west-northwest of
the center of Fiona, recently reported a sustained wind of 62 mph
(100 km/h) and a gust to 80 mph (129 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).
NOAA buoy 41047 recently reported a pressure of 975.0 mb
(28.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
tonight and continuing through Friday morning.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Bermuda: 2 to 4 inches.

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6
inches, with local maximum up to 10 inches. This rainfall could
result in areas of flooding, some of which may be significant in
nature.

Eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches.

Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will cause elevated water levels along
the coast of Bermuda in areas of onshore winds beginning tonight.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the northern coast
of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.
These swells will continue to spread westward across the
southwestern Atlantic toward the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada during the next day or two. Swells from Fiona
are expected to reach Bermuda this morning. The swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 220538
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...FIONA CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 71.1W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1305 MI...2100 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of this
system. Watches may be required for portions of Atlantic Canada
later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 71.1 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A north-northeastward or
northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
later today through Friday, followed by a somewhat slower northward
motion beginning Friday night or Saturday. On the forecast track,
the center of Fiona will pass just to the west of Bermuda tonight,
approach Nova Scotia on Friday, and move across Nova Scotia
and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected through
early Friday. Some weakening is expected to begin later on Friday,
but Fiona is forecast to still be producing hurricane-force winds
Friday night and Saturday after it has become post-tropical.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km). NOAA buoy 41047, about 45 miles north-northwest of
the center of Fiona, recently reported a sustained wind of 62 mph
(100 km/h) and a gust to 76 mph (122 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).
NOAA buoy 41047 recently reported a pressure of 984.5 mb
(29.07 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected, and hurricane
conditions are possible, on Bermuda beginning this evening and
continuing through Friday morning.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Bermuda: 2 to 4 inches.

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6
inches, with local maximum up to 10 inches. This rainfall could
result in areas of flooding, some of which may be significant in
nature.

Eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches.

New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will cause elevated water levels along
the coast of Bermuda in areas of onshore winds beginning tonight.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the northern coast
of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.
These swells will continue to spread westward across the
southwestern Atlantic toward the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada during the next day or two. Swells from Fiona
are expected to reach Bermuda this morning. The swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 220248
TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

Just after the last advisory, a white ring in the Dvorak curve
completely surrounded the eye, with cloud-top temperatures as cold
as about -80 degrees Celsius. These temperatures have warmed a bit
since then, and the eye is not as warm as it was. A NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft flew two passes through the eye and measured a peak
700-mb flight-level of 119 kt and SFMR winds of 100-105 kt, but
also found that Fiona's central pressure has fallen to 934 mb.
Given the pressure drop, and the fact that satellite intensity
estimates are not much lower than before, the initial intensity
remains 115 kt (but this could be a little generous). The plane
also found that the 50- and 64-kt wind radii have increased in size.

Fiona is still moving just east of due north, or 010/9 kt. The
hurricane is expected to accelerate toward the north-northeast
during the next 24 hours while located along the western periphery
of the Azores-Bermuda high. After that time, an even faster motion
toward the northeast and north-northeast is forecast as a
progressive deep-layer trough moves off the northeastern U.S. coast
Thursday night and Friday, propelling Fiona toward Atlantic Canada
at speeds of 25-30 kt. A slower northward motion is expected by 72
hours, with Fiona continuing across the Gulf of St. Lawrence and
Labrador, and then over the Labrador Sea by days 4 and 5. The
track guidance is very tightly clustered, and the new NHC track
forecast is mainly an update of the previous prediction.

Little change, or perhaps some fluctuations, in intensity are
expected during the next 24 hours while Fiona remains over warm
waters of 29-30 degrees Celsius and in a generally low-shear
environment. Shear increases substantially in 36-48 hours, which
should cause some gradual weakening, and extratropical transition
due to the aforementioned trough is expected to be complete just
after 48 hours as the center of Fiona is approaching Nova Scotia.
The extratropical low is forecast to continue producing
hurricane-force winds as it crosses Nova Scotia and moves into the
Gulf of St. Lawrence through day 3, and it is expected to continue
producing gale-force winds as it moves across Newfoundland and
Labrador. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the IVCN and HCCA
consensus aids during Fiona's tropical phase through 48 hours.
After that time, the official forecast more closely follows the GFS
and ECMWF global models solutions.

Based on the NOAA Hurricane Hunter data, the wind radii have been
expanded at the initial time and within the forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible, and tropical storm conditions
are expected, on Bermuda beginning Thursday evening and continuing
through Friday morning.

2. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and
significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy
rainfall are becoming increasingly likely. Interests in these
areas should closely monitor the progress of Fiona and updates to
the forecast.

3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause dangerous
and possibly life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along
the east coast of the United States, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
Atlantic Canada during the next few days. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 26.6N 71.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 28.2N 70.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 30.9N 68.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 34.8N 65.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 40.7N 61.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 45.7N 61.4W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/0000Z 48.5N 61.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/0000Z 54.9N 59.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/0000Z 62.2N 58.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 220248
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...FIONA'S WIND FIELD GROWING AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 71.2W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1315 MI...2110 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of this
system. Watches may be required for portions of Atlantic Canada
tomorrow morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 71.2 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A north-northeastward or
northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
through Friday, followed by a somewhat slower northward motion
beginning Friday night or Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Fiona will pass just to the west of Bermuda Thursday
night, approach Nova Scotia on Friday, and move across Nova Scotia
and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected
through early Friday. Some weakening is expected to begin on
Friday, but Fiona is forecast to still be producing hurricane-force
winds Friday night and Saturday after it has become post-tropical.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km). NOAA buoy 41047, about 55 n mi north-northwest of
the center of Fiona, recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph
(86 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (108 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected, and hurricane
conditions are possible, on Bermuda beginning Thursday evening and
continuing through Friday morning.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Bermuda: 2 to 4 inches.

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6
inches, with local maximum up to 10 inches. This rainfall could
result in areas of flooding, some of which may be significant in
nature.

Eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches.

New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will cause elevated water levels along
the coast of Bermuda in areas of onshore winds beginning Thursday
night. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the northern coast
of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.
These swells will continue to spread westward across the
southwestern Atlantic toward the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada during the next day or two. Swells from Fiona
are expected to reach Bermuda early Thursday. The swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 220247
TCMAT2

HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
0300 UTC THU SEP 22 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA
TOMORROW MORNING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 71.2W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 55NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 180SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 71.2W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 71.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.2N 70.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.9N 68.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 130SE 90SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 180SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 34.8N 65.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 50NW.
50 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...230NE 260SE 230SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 40.7N 61.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 110SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...150NE 180SE 140SW 150NW.
34 KT...270NE 290SE 260SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 45.7N 61.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 130NW.
34 KT...270NE 290SE 260SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 48.5N 61.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...220NE 260SE 210SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 54.9N 59.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 62.2N 58.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 71.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 212346
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING FIONA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 71.4W
ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1365 MI...2195 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of this
system. Watches may be required for portions of Atlantic Canada
tomorrow morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 25.9 North,
longitude 71.4 West. Fiona is moving toward the north near 9 mph
(15 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through this
evening. A turn toward the north-northeast with an increase in
forward speed is expected by Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Fiona will approach Bermuda late tomorrow, and approach
Atlantic Canada late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast through
tonight, with some fluctuations in intensity possible on Thursday.
Fiona is forecast to be a hurricane-force cyclone through Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected, and hurricane
conditions are possible, on Bermuda by late tomorrow or early
Friday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Bermuda: 2 to 4 inches.

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6
inches, with local maximum up to 10 inches.

Eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches.

New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will cause elevated water levels along
the coast of Bermuda in areas of onshore winds beginning late
tomorrow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the northern coast
of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas. These swells will continue to spread westward
across the southwestern Atlantic toward the northwestern Bahamas
and the east coast of the United States during the next day or two.
Swells from Fiona are expected to reach Bermuda by late tonight.
The swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 212039
TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

Fiona continues to have a fairly impressive presentation on
satellite images, although the eye has become partially cloud-
filled. The central convection continues to have very cold cloud
tops to near -80 deg C, and the Central Dense Overcast is
surrounded by numerous banding features, especially over the
eastern semicircle. Upper-tropospheric outflow is strong over the
northern and eastern portions of the circulation. The current
intensity is held at 115 kt, i.e. Category 4, in agreement with a
subjective Dvorak estimate from SAB.

The hurricane should remain over warm waters for the next 48 hours,
and in a moist and unstable air mass. Some strengthening is still
possible within the next day or so. Eyewall replacement cycles
could cause some intensity fluctuations, but these are difficult to
predict. Fiona is expected to interact with a strong
mid-tropospheric trough moving off the northeastern United States
coast in around 60 hours. This interaction should lead to the
system transforming into an intense extratropical cyclone, with
hurricane-force winds, before it reaches Atlantic Canada.

Fiona's motion is beginning to show signs of a turn toward the
north-northeast as the eye has been leaning toward the right
over the past few hours. The initial motion is just east of
north or about 010/8 kt. There are no significant changes to the
track forecast or its reasoning. During the next 12 to 24
hours, the hurricane is expected to move northward to
north-northeastward along the western periphery of a mid-level
subtropical high pressure area. Thereafter, Fiona is forecast to
gradually accelerate northeastward to north-northeastward in
the flow ahead of the aforementioned trough. The official track
forecast remains close to both the simple and corrected
dynamical model consensus, TVCN and HCCA, respectively.

Based on an earlier ASCAT overpass, the wind radii have been
expanded. The model guidance indicates that Fiona will grow even
larger in size during the next few days.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible, and tropical storm conditions
are expected, on Bermuda by late tomorrow.

2. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and could
produce significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy
rainfall. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the
progress of Fiona and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 25.6N 71.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 27.0N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 29.5N 69.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 32.6N 66.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 37.4N 63.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 43.5N 61.1W 90 KT 105 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1800Z 47.0N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/1800Z 52.5N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/1800Z 60.0N 59.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 212037
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...LARGE HURRICANE FIONA EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA LATE
TOMORROW AND EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 71.5W
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1385 MI...2225 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of this
system. Watches may be required for portions of Atlantic Canada
tomorrow morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 71.5 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through this evening. A turn toward the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected by
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will approach
Bermuda late tomorrow, and approach Atlantic Canada late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast through
tonight, with some fluctuations in intensity possible on Thursday.
Fiona is forecast to be a hurricane-force cyclone through Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected, and hurricane
conditions are possible, on Bermuda by late tomorrow or early
Friday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Bermuda: 2 to 4 inches.

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6
inches, with local maximum up to 10 inches.

Eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches.

New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will cause elevated water levels along
the coast of Bermuda in areas of onshore winds beginning late
tomorrow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the northern coast
of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas. These swells will continue to spread westward
across the southwestern Atlantic toward the northwestern Bahamas
and the east coast of the United States during the next day or two.
Swells from Fiona are expected to reach Bermuda by late tonight.
The swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 212037
TCMAT2

HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
2100 UTC WED SEP 21 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA
TOMORROW MORNING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 71.5W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 170SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 71.5W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 71.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 27.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.5N 69.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 32.6N 66.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 37.4N 63.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 43.5N 61.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 200SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 47.0N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 270SW 220NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 52.5N 60.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 60.0N 59.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 71.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 211741
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...LARGE AND INTENSE HURRICANE FIONA CONTINUES NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 71.7W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1420 MI...2290 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 71.7 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through this evening. A turn toward the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected by
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will approach
Bermuda late on Thursday and approach Atlantic Canada late on
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast
through tonight, with some fluctuations in intensity possible on
Thursday. Fiona is forecast to be a hurricane-force cyclone through
Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected, and hurricane
conditions are possible, on Bermuda by late Thursday or early
Friday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Turks and Caicos: Additional 1 to 2 inches.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 2 inches.

Bermuda: 2 to 4 inches.

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6
inches, with local maximum up to 10 inches.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will cause elevated water levels along
the coast of Bermuda in areas of onshore winds beginning late
Thursday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the northern coast
of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas. These swells will continue to spread westward
across the southwestern Atlantic toward the northwestern Bahamas
and the east coast of the United States during the next day or two.
Swells from Fiona are expected to reach Bermuda by late tonight.
The swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 211455
TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

Fiona has an impressive presentation on satellite images, with a
well-defined 20-n mi diameter eye embedded within very cold cloud
tops. The hurricane has a large Central Dense Overcast with
surrounding banding features, especially over the northeastern
quadrant. Upper-level outflow is well-defined over the northern
and eastern portions of the system. The current intensity estimate
is kept at 115 kt in agreement with a subjective Dvorak estimate
from SAB.

During the next couple of days, Fiona will continue to traverse
warm ocean waters and remain within a moist air mass. Therefore
some additional strengthening could occur. Fluctuations in
intensity are also possible due to eyewall replacements, but these
are difficult to time. In 60-72 hours, Fiona is expected to
interact with a vigorous mid-latitude trough near the northeastern
United States coast, which should lead to its transition into an
intense extratropical cyclone by 72 hours.

The hurricane continues to move northward, or at about 360/7 kt.
Fiona is likely to move northward to north-northeastward along the
western side of a mid-level subtropical anticyclone during the next
12-24 hours. After that time, the hurricane is forecast to
gradually accelerate northeastward to north-northeastward along
the eastern side of the above mentioned trough. The new official
forecast is very similar to the previous NHC prediction and is very
close to both the corrected and simple dynamical model consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible, and tropical storm conditions
are expected, on Bermuda by late Thursday.

2. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and could
produce significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy
rainfall. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the
progress of Fiona and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 24.6N 71.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 25.8N 71.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 28.0N 70.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 30.7N 68.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 34.4N 65.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 39.7N 61.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 45.3N 60.6W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/1200Z 51.5N 60.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/1200Z 58.0N 59.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 211453
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...POWERFUL HURRICANE FIONA HEADED NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 71.7W
ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1455 MI...2340 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 71.7 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through this evening. A turn toward the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected by
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will continue
to move away from the Turks and Caicos today, approach Bermuda
late on Thursday and approach Atlantic Canada late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast
through tonight, with some fluctuations in intensity possible on
Thursday. Fiona is forecast to be a hurricane-force cyclone
through Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Gusty winds are likely to continue over portions of the
southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands for the next
few hours.

Tropical storm conditions are expected, and hurricane conditions
are possible, on Bermuda by late Thursday or early Friday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Turks and Caicos: Additional 1 to 2 inches.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 2 inches.

Bermuda: 2 to 4 inches.

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6
inches, with local maximum up to 10 inches.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will cause elevated water levels along
the coast of Bermuda in areas of onshore winds beginning late
Thursday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the northern coast
of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas. These swells will continue to spread westward
across the southwestern Atlantic toward the northwestern Bahamas
and the east coast of the United States during the next day or two.
Swells from Fiona are expected to reach Bermuda by late tonight.
The swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 211452
TCMAT2

HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
1500 UTC WED SEP 21 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 71.7W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 71.7W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 71.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 25.8N 71.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.0N 70.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 190SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.7N 68.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 34.4N 65.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 39.7N 61.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 200SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 45.3N 60.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 270SW 220NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 51.5N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 58.0N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 71.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 211145
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 71.7W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and
a Hurricane Watch for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Fiona was located by
an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 24.2 North,
longitude 71.7 West. Fiona is moving toward the north near 8 mph
(13 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through
this evening. A turn toward the north-northeast with an increase
in forward speed is expected by Thursday. On the forecast track,
the center of Fiona will continue to move away from the Turks and
Caicos today, and approach Bermuda late on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast
through tonight, with some fluctuations in intensity possible on
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 937 mb (27.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Gusty winds are likely to continue over portions of the
southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos islands this morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected, and hurricane conditions
are possible, on Bermuda by late Thursday or early Friday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Dominican Republic: Up to an additional local 1 to 2 inches. Storm
Total up to 20 inches in the eastern section.

Turks and Caicos: Additional 1 to 3 inches with storm totals of 5-10
inches. Areas of flooding remain possible.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 4 inches.

Bermuda: 2 to 4 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the northern coast
of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas. These swells will continue to spread westward
across the southwestern Atlantic toward the northwestern Bahamas
and the east coast of the United States during the next day or two.
Swells from Fiona are expected to reach Bermuda by early Thursday.
The swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 211009
TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has recently
reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 128 kt, and reliable surface
winds estimates from the SFMR of 115 kt. The central pressure
inside the 25 n mi wide eye has fallen to 939 mb. Based on these
data, the initial intensity is set at 115 kt, making Fiona a
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

There is little change to the intensity forecast philosophy since
the last advisory. The vertical wind shear over Fiona is expected
to remain low to moderate during the next couple of days. During
that time, the hurricane will be traversing warm sea surface
temperatures and remain in a moist environment. These conditions
should allow for some additional strengthening during the next 12
to 24 hours, and the new intensity forecast calls for a peak
intensity of 120 kt during that time. After that time, difficult-
to-predict eyewall replacement cycles are likely to cause some
fluctuations in intensity. Starting near 72 h, Fiona is expected to
interact with a vigorous mid-latitude trough, which should lead to
transition into an intense extratropical low between 72-96 h.
After 96 h, the system is expected to weaken.

The initial motion is now 360/7. Fiona should move generally
northward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge during
the next 12-24 hours. After that time, the hurricane is forecast
to turn north-northeastward and begin to gradually accelerate as
the aforementioned trough approaches from the northwest. There
were no no significant changes to the guidance from the last
advisory, and the new forecast track is an update of the previous
track.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains south of Fiona will continue to impact the Turks and
Caicos through this morning with additional flooding possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda by late
Thursday.

3. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and could
produce significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy
rainfall. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the
progress of Fiona and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 23.9N 71.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 25.0N 71.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 26.9N 71.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 29.3N 69.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 32.3N 67.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 36.5N 63.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 42.0N 60.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 50.0N 60.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/0600Z 56.0N 59.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 211008
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...FIONA MOVING NORTHWARD AT CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 71.8W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM NNW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 71.8 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through this evening. A turn toward the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected by
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will continue
to move away from the Turks and Caicos today, and approach Bermuda
late on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast through
tonight, with some fluctuations in intensity possible later
tonight and on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 939 mb (27.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Gusty winds are likely to continue over portions of the
southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos islands this morning.

Tropical storm conditions could reach Bermuda by late Thursday or
early Friday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Dominican Republic: Up to an additional local 1 to 2 inches. Storm
Total up to 20 inches in the eastern section.

Turks and Caicos: Additional 1 to 3 inches with storm totals of 5-10
inches. Areas of flooding remain possible.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 4 inches.

Bermuda: 2 to 4 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the northern coast
of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas. These swells will continue to spread westward
across the southwestern Atlantic toward the northwestern Bahamas
and the east coast of the United States during the next day or two.
Swells from Fiona are expected to reach Bermuda by early Thursday.
The swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 211008
TCMAT2

HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
0900 UTC WED SEP 21 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 71.8W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 71.8W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 71.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.0N 71.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 26.9N 71.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.3N 69.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 32.3N 67.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 36.5N 63.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 42.0N 60.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 270SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 50.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 56.0N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 71.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 210924
TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has recently
reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 128 kt, and reliable surface
winds estimates from the SFMR of 115 kt. The central pressure
inside the 25 n mi wide eye has fallen to 939 mb. Based on these
data, the initial intensity is set at 115 kt, making Fiona a
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

There is little change to the intensity forecast philosophy since
the last advisory. The vertical wind shear over Fiona is expected
to remain low to moderate during the next couple of days. During
that time, the hurricane will be traversing warm sea surface
temperatures and remain in a moist environment. These conditions
should allow for some additional strengthening during the next 12
to 24 hours, and the new intensity forecast calls for a peak
intensity of 120 kt during that time. After that time, difficult-
to-predict eyewall replacement cycles are likely to cause some
fluctuations in intensity. Starting near 72 h, Fiona is expected
to
interact with a vigorous mid-latitude trough, which should lead to
transition into an intense extratropical low between 72-96 h.
After 96 h, the system is expected to weaken.

The initial motion is now 360/7. Fiona should move generally
northward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge during
the next 12-24 hours. After that time, the hurricane is forecast
to turn north-northeastward and begin to gradually accelerate as
the aforementioned trough approaches from the northwest. There
were no no significant changes to the guidance from the last
advisory, and the new forecast track is an update of the previous
track.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains south of Fiona will continue to impact the Turks and
Caicos through this morning with additional flooding possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda by late
Thursday.

3. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and could
produce significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy
rainfall. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the
progress of Fiona and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 23.9N 71.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 25.0N 71.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 26.9N 71.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 29.3N 69.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 32.3N 67.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 36.5N 63.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 42.0N 60.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 50.0N 60.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/0600Z 56.0N 59.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 210922
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...FIONA MOVING NORTHWARD AT CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 71.8W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM NNW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 71.8 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through this evening. A turn toward the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected by
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will continue
to move away from the Turks and Caicos today, and approach Bermuda
late on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast through
tonight, with some fluctuations in intensity possible later
tonight and on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 939 mb (27.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Gusty winds are likely to continue over portions of the
southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos islands this morning.

Tropical storm conditions could reach Bermuda by late Thursday or
early Friday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Dominican Republic: Up to an additional local 1 to 2 inches. Storm
Total up to 20 inches in the eastern section.

Turks and Caicos: Additional 1 to 3 inches with storm totals of 5-10
inches. Areas of flooding remain possible.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 4 inches.

Bermuda: 2 to 4 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the northern coast
of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas. These swells will continue to spread westward
across the southwestern Atlantic toward the northwestern Bahamas
and the east coast of the United States during the next day or two.
Swells from Fiona are expected to reach Bermuda by early Thursday.
The swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 210915
TCMAT2

HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
0900 UTC WED SEP 21 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 71.8W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 71.8W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 71.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.0N 71.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 26.9N 71.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.3N 69.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 32.3N 67.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 36.5N 63.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 42.0N 60.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 270SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 50.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 56.0N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 71.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 210551
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...FIONA BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 71.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF NORTH CAICOS ISLAND
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 71.8 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through today. A turn toward the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected by
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will continue
to move away from the Turks and Caicos today, and approach Bermuda
late on Thursday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds are now near 130 mph
(210 km/h) with higher gusts. Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening
is forecast through tonight. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible tonight and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Gusty winds are likely to continue over portions of the
southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos islands overnight.

Tropical storm conditions could reach Bermuda by late Thursday or
early Friday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Dominican Republic: Up to an additional local 1 to 2 inches. Storm
Total up to 20 inches in the eastern section.

Turks and Caicos: Additional 1 to 3 inches with storm totals of 5-10
inches. Areas of flooding remain possible.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 4 inches.

Bermuda: 1 to 3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the northern coast
of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas. These swells will continue to spread westward
across the southwestern Atlantic toward the northwestern Bahamas
and the east coast of the United States during the next day or two.
Swells from Fiona are expected to reach Bermuda by early Thursday.
The swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 210247
TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft that has been
investigating Fiona this evening show that the hurricane has
strengthened since this afternoon. The aircraft has measured peak
700-mb flight-level winds of 120 kt, and SFMR winds of around 110 kt
earlier in the evening. Based on those data, the intensity was
increased to 110 kt on the intermediate advisory at 0000 UTC. Since
that time, the satellite presentation has continued to improve with
the eye becoming better defined and the surrounding ring of deep
convection expanding with colder cloud top temperatures. The
pressure has fallen a few more millibars and is now down to 947 mb,
however the plane has not found any higher winds during several
passes through the northeastern and northern portion of the eyewall.
It is worth noting that the latest subjective and objective
satellite estimates suggest a stronger intensity, and this may be a
case in which the winds are lagging the improved satellite
presentation, which is not too uncommon.

The vertical wind shear over the hurricane is expected to remain low
to moderate during the next couple of days. During that time, the
hurricane will be traversing SSTs of 29-30 degrees Celsius, and
remain in a moist environment. These conditions should allow for
some additional strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, but
after that time, difficult-to-predict eyewall replacement cycles are
likely to cause some fluctuations in intensity. By day 3, the
system is forecast to interact with a vigorous mid-troposphere
trough and the system is expected to become a large and powerful
extratropical cyclone near Atlantic Canada.

The latest satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that the hurricane
is now moving just west of due north or 350/7 kt. Fiona should move
generally northward around the western periphery of a mid-level
ridge during the next 24 hours. After that time, the hurricane is
forecast to turn north-northeastward and begin to gradually
accelerate as the aforementioned trough approaches from the
northwest. Very little cross-track changes were made to the latest
NHC forecast, but it is slightly slower than the previous advisory
to be in better agreement with the bulk of the dynamical models.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains south of Fiona will continue to impact the Turks and
Caicos through tonight with additional flooding possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda by late
Thursday.

3. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and could
produce significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy
rainfall. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the
progress of Fiona and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 23.2N 71.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 24.3N 71.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 26.0N 71.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 28.1N 70.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 30.8N 69.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 34.3N 65.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 39.5N 61.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 48.3N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/0000Z 55.4N 58.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 210246
TCMAT2

HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
0300 UTC WED SEP 21 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 71.8W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 71.8W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 71.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.3N 71.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 26.0N 71.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.1N 70.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.8N 69.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 34.3N 65.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 39.5N 61.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 270SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 48.3N 59.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 55.4N 58.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 71.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 210247
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...FIONA MOVING AWAY FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 71.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM N OF NORTH CAICOS ISLAND
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued all warnings for the
Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 71.8 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected by
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will continue
to move away from the Turks and Caicos tonight and Wednesday, and
approach Bermuda late on Thursday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast during the
next day or so. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft is 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Gusty winds are likely to continue over portions of the
southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos islands overnight.

Tropical storm conditions could reach Bermuda by late Thursday or
early Friday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Dominican Republic: Up to an additional local 1 to 2 inches. Storm
Total up to 20 inches in the eastern section.

Turks and Caicos: Additional 1 to 3 inches with storm totals of 5-10
inches. Areas of flooding remain possible.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 4 inches.

Bermuda: 1 to 3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the northern coast
of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas. These swells will continue to spread westward
across the southwestern Atlantic toward the northwestern Bahamas
and the east coast of the United States during the next day or two.
Swells from Fiona are expected to reach Bermuda by early Thursday.
The swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 202356
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS FIONA STRENGTHENING...
...FIONA STILL PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 71.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM N OF NORTH CAICOS ISLAND
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 71.7 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a turn toward
the north on Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northeast with an
increase in forward speed is expected on Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Fiona will gradually move away from
the Turks and Caicos tonight and Wednesday, and approach Bermuda
late on Thursday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Fiona is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast
during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft is 951 mb (28.08 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are occurring over
portions of Turks and Caicos and these conditions should continue
for the next few hours.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
southeastern Bahamas for the next several hours.

Tropical storm conditions could reach Bermuda by late Thursday or
early Friday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: Up to an additional local 1 to 2
inches.

Puerto Rico: Up to an additional local 1 to 2 inches. Storm Total 12
to 20 inches with local maximum of 35 inches.

Dominican Republic: Up to an additional local 1 to 2 inches. Storm
Total up to 20 inches in the eastern section.

Turks and Caicos: Additional 2 to 4 inches with storm totals of 5
to 10 inches.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 4 inches.

Bermuda: 1 to 3 inches.

Heavy rains around the center of Fiona will impact the Turks and
Caicos through this evening with continued life-threatening
flooding. Localized additional flash and urban flooding is possible
in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos through this evening.

Localized coastal flooding is possible for the Southeastern Bahamas
in areas of onshore winds through this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the northern coast
of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas. These swells will continue to spread westward
across the southwestern Atlantic toward the northwestern Bahamas
and the east coast of the United States during the next day or two.
Swells from Fiona are expected to reach Bermuda by early Thursday.
The swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 202057
TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

Deep convection around Fiona's eye is intense, but is in a rather
asymmetrical pattern at this time. Upper-tropospheric outflow
remains somewhat restricted over the western semicircle of the
system. The last Air Force Hurricane Hunter fix in the
center of the hurricane around 17Z showed a slight fall of
central pressure from earlier in the day, but the flight-level and
SFMR-observed surface winds indicated that the maximum winds were
still near 100 kt. This is also in agreement with the latest
Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB. Another Air Force
Hurricane Hunter mission into Fiona is scheduled for 00Z to see if
Fiona is strengthening again.

Vertical wind shear over Fiona, as diagnosed by the SHIPS model, is
predicted to remain moderate for the next few days. However, the
hurricane is likely to remain in a moist unstable air mass and over
a warm ocean for the next couple of days which is likely to offset
the influence of shear. In general, the intensity model guidance
continues to show strengthening for about the next 48 hours, and so
does the official forecast. Fiona is expected to become a category
4 hurricane in a day or so. By 96 hours, global model guidance
indicates that the system will be transformed into a vigorous
extratropical cyclone near Atlantic Canada.

The hurricane is still headed toward the north-northwest with an
initial motion estimate of 330/7 kt. The track forecast scenario
is generally unchanged from the previous advisory. Fiona should
turn northward while moving along the western side of a mid-level
anticyclone during the next day or so. In 2-3 days, an intense
mid-tropospheric trough will be moving off the northeast United
States coast. This feature should cause Fiona to accelerate toward
the north-northeast and northeast during the latter part of the
forecast period. The official forecast follows about the same
trajectory as the previous one, but is just a tad slower. This is
in good agreement with both the simple and corrected consensus
predictions.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains around the center of Fiona will continue to impact
the Turks and Caicos through this evening with continued
life-threatening flooding. Localized additional flash and urban
flooding is possible in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

2. Hurricane conditions are affecting portions of the Turks and
Caicos islands, while tropical storm conditions should affect
portions of the southeastern Bahamas during the next few hours.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda by late
Thursday.

4. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and could
produce significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy
rainfall. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the
progress of Fiona and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 22.6N 71.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 23.6N 72.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 25.0N 71.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 26.9N 71.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 29.4N 70.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 32.4N 67.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 36.9N 63.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 46.5N 60.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/1800Z 55.0N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 202053
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...FIONA STILL PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 71.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF NORTH CAICOS ISLAND
ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 71.8 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue into tonight, followed by a turn
toward the north on Wednesday. A turn toward the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will
gradually move away from the Turks and Caicos tonight and Wednesday,
and approach Bermuda late on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring over portions of Turks and
Caicos and these conditions should continue for the next few hours.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
southeastern Bahamas for the next several hours.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: Up to an additional local 1 to 2
inches.

Puerto Rico: Up to an additional local 1 to 2 inches. Storm Total 12
to 20 inches with local maximum of 35 inches.

Dominican Republic: Up to an additional local 1 to 2 inches. Storm
Total up to 20 inches in the eastern section.

Turks and Caicos: Additional 2 to 4 inches with storm totals of 5
to 10 inches.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 4 inches.

Bermuda: 1 to 3 inches.

Heavy rains around the center of Fiona will impact the Turks and
Caicos through this evening with continued life-threatening
flooding. Localized additional flash and urban flooding is possible
in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos through this evening.

Localized coastal flooding is possible for the Southeastern Bahamas
in areas of onshore winds through this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will continue
to spread westward across the southwestern Atlantic toward the
central and northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of the United
States through midweek. Swells from Fiona are expected to reach
Bermuda later this week. The swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 202053
TCMAT2

HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
2100 UTC TUE SEP 20 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 71.8W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 71.8W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 71.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 23.6N 72.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.0N 71.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 26.9N 71.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.4N 70.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 32.4N 67.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 36.9N 63.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 46.5N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 55.0N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 71.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 201754
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...FIONA CONTINUES TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
THE TURKS AND CAICOS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 71.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF NORTH CAICOS ISLAND
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be nearing completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 71.7 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a turn
toward the north tonight or on Wednesday. A turn toward the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will continue
to move near the eastern Turks and Caicos during the next few hours,
away from those islands by tomorrow, and approach Bermuda late on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring over portions of the Turks
and Caicos, and these conditions should continue for the next few
hours.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
southeastern Bahamas for the next several hours.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: Additional local 1 to 2 inches over
the next 24 hours.

Southern Puerto Rico: Additional local 1 to 4 inches over the next
24 hours. Storm Total 12 to 20 inches with local maximum of 35
inches.

Northern Puerto Rico: Additional local 1 to 2 inches over the next
24 hours. Storm Total 4 to 12 inches with local maximum of 20
inches.

Dominican Republic: Additional 1 to 4 inches with local maximum of 6
inches over the next 24 hours. Storm Total up to 20 inches in the
eastern section.

Turks and Caicos: Additional 4 to 8 inches.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 4 inches.

Bermuda: 1 to 3 inches.

Heavy rainfall and localized life-threatening flash flooding
continues over portions of the Dominican Republic today. Heavy
rains around the center of Fiona impacts the Turks and Caicos
through this afternoon with continued life-threatening flooding.
Localized additional flash and urban flooding is possible in Puerto
Rico.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 5 to 8 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos through today.

Localized coastal flooding is possible for the Southeastern Bahamas
in areas of onshore winds through today.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will continue
to spread westward across the southwestern Atlantic toward the
central and northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of the United
States through midweek. Swells from Fiona are expected to spread
across Bermuda later this week. The swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 201452
TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

Fiona has not changed much in organization on satellite images over
the past several hours, with the eye obscured on visible satellite
imagery. Upper-level outflow is still somewhat restricted over the
western semicircle of the system. A recent SSMIS microwave image
suggested that the hurricane may be undergoing an eyewall
replacement. Observations from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that the central pressure has not changed much
from earlier this morning. Flight-level and SFMR-observed surface
winds from the aircraft do not support an intensity higher than 100
kt, so the intensity is held at that value for this advisory. This
is also in agreement with Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and
SAB, and recent NOAA Synthetic Aperture Radar data.

Numerical guidance indicates that Fiona will continue to be
influenced by moderate west-southwesterly shear during the next
couple of days. However the models also indicate that the
thermodynamic environment will be conducive for intensification
over the next 48 hours, as Fiona passes through a moist air mass
and over warm SSTs of 28-29 deg. The official intensity forecast
continues to call for Fiona becoming a category 4 hurricane, in
agreement with the corrected consensus model guidance, HCCA.
Beyond 72 hours, the hurricane is expected to interact with a
vigorous mid-latitude trough moving into the Atlantic from the
northeastern United States. This should start the process of
extratropical transition by 96 hours, with the transition complete
by the end of the forecast period. Fiona is expected to remain a
deep and strong cyclone after extratropical transition.

Fiona continues to move north-northwestward, at about 330/8 kt.
The track guidance has changed very little from the previous
advisory. Over the next couple of days, the hurricane should
continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level high
pressure system centered to its east. in 48-96 hours, Fiona is
expected to move north-northeastward to northeastward with
increasing forward speed along the southeast side of a strong
mid-tropospheric trough. The official track forecast is similar to
the previous NHC prediction and in close agreement with the HCCA
guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall and localized life-threatening flash flooding
should continue over portions of the Dominican Republic today.
Heavy rains should continue to impact the Turks and Caicos through
this afternoon with continued life-threatening flooding. Localized
additional flash and urban flooding is possible in Puerto Rico.

2. Hurricane conditions are affecting portions of the Turks and
Caicos islands, while tropical storm conditions should affect
portions of the southeastern Bahamas during the next few hours.

3. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of
Fiona.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 22.0N 71.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 23.0N 71.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 24.4N 71.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 26.1N 71.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 28.3N 70.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 31.1N 68.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 34.7N 65.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 45.0N 60.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 52.0N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 201451
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...MAJOR HURRICANE FIONA CONTINUES TO BATTER THE TURKS AND CAICOS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 71.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NNW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be nearing completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 71.4 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a turn
toward the north tonight or Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Fiona will continue to move near the eastern Turks and
Caicos during the next few hours, away from those islands by
tomorrow, and approach Bermuda late on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA and Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring over portions of the Turks
and Caicos, and these conditions should continue for the next few
hours.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
southeastern Bahamas for the next several hours.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: Additional local 1 to 2 inches over
the next 24 hours.

Southern Puerto Rico: Additional local 1 to 4 inches over the next
24 hours. Storm Total 12 to 20 inches with local maximum of 35
inches.

Northern Puerto Rico: Additional local 1 to 2 inches over the next
24 hours. Storm Total 4 to 12 inches with local maximum of 20
inches.

Dominican Republic: Additional 1 to 4 inches with local maximum of 6
inches over the next 24 hours. Storm Total up to 20 inches in the
eastern section.

Turks and Caicos: Additional 4 to 8 inches.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 4 inches.

Bermuda: 1 to 3 inches.

Heavy rainfall and localized life-threatening flash flooding
continues over portions of the Dominican Republic today. Heavy
rains around the center of Fiona impacts the Turks and Caicos
through this afternoon with continued life-threatening flooding.
Localized additional flash and urban flooding is possible in Puerto
Rico.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 5 to 8 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos through today.

Localized coastal flooding is possible for the Southeastern Bahamas
in areas of onshore winds through today.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will continue
to spread westward across the southwestern Atlantic toward the
central and northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of the United
States through midweek. Swells from Fiona are expected to spread
across Bermuda later this week. The swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 201451
TCMAT2

HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
1500 UTC TUE SEP 20 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FIONA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 71.4W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 71.4W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 71.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 23.0N 71.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.4N 71.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 26.1N 71.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.3N 70.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.1N 68.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 34.7N 65.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 45.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 52.0N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 71.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 201157
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...MAJOR HURRICANE FIONA BRINGING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE
TURKS AND CAICOS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 71.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be nearing completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 21.6 North,
longitude 71.2 West. Fiona is moving toward the north-northwest
near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue
through today, followed by a turn toward the north tonight or
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will continue
to move near Grand Turk and the other eastern Turks and Caicos
during the next few hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure from Air Force Reserve and
NOAA Hurricane Hunter data is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring over the Turks and Caicos
at this time, and these conditions should persist through this
morning.

Tropical storm conditions should be spreading over portions of
the southeastern Bahamas through this morning.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: Additional local 1 to 2 inches over
the next 24 hours.

Southern Puerto Rico: Additional local 1 to 4 inches over the next
24 hours. Storm Total 12 to 20 inches with local maximum of 35
inches.

Northern Puerto Rico: Additional local 1 to 2 inches over the next
24 hours. Storm Total 4 to 12 inches with local maximum of 20
inches.

Dominican Republic: Additional 1 to 4 inches with local maximum of 6
inches over the next 24 hours. Storm Total up to 20 inches in the
eastern section.

Turks and Caicos: Additional 4 to 8 inches.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 4 inches.

Heavy rainfall and localized life-threatening flash flooding
continues over portions of the Dominican Republic today. Heavy rains
around the center of Fiona impacts the Turks and Caicos through this
afternoon with continued life-threatening flooding. Localized
additional flash and urban flooding is possible in southern portions
of Puerto Rico.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 5 to 8 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos through today.

Localized coastal flooding is possible for the Southeastern Bahamas
in areas of onshore winds through today.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will continue
to spread westward across the southwestern Atlantic toward the
central and northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of the United
States through midweek. The swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 200853
TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

A few hours ago, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
reported that the central pressure of Fiona had dropped to 967 mb,
and that the 700-mb flight-level winds were near 95 kt. In
addition, the aircraft also reported surface winds estimates from
the SFMR of 100-105 kt. The various satellite intensity estimates
are in the 100-115 kt range, and based on these data the initial
intensity was increased to 100 kt. This makes Fiona the first major
hurricane of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. It should be noted
that since the aircraft left the storm, the eye has become less
distinct in satellite imagery. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Fiona before 12Z to
see how much, if any, additional strengthening has occurred.

While Fiona has strengthened, satellite imagery continues to show
restricted outflow in the western semicircle, likely due to
continued southwesterly vertical wind shear. While some shear
should continue through 72 h, it appears it will not be strong
enough to prevent additional intensification, and Fiona is likely to
become a category 4 hurricane during this time. After 72 h, the
hurricane will interact with a powerful mid-latitude trough moving
into the Atlantic from the eastern United States. This should start
the process of extratropical transition by 96 h, with the transition
complete by the end of the forecast period. Fiona is expected to
remain intense through much of the transition, with the GFS, ECMWF,
and UKMET forecasting 85-95 kt winds and unusually low central
pressures at 96 h.

Fiona has moved northwestward during the past several hours, but a
longer-term motion is north-northwestward or 330/9 kt. There is no
change in the track forecast philosophy, as during the next
48-60 h the hurricane should gradually turn north while moving
around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. After that,
Fiona is forecast to turn north-northeastward and accelerate as it
interacts with the aforementioned strong mid-latitude trough, with
a northward motion expected after the cyclone completes
extratropical transition. The track guidance, while remaining
tightly clustered, has shifted a little westward during the first
72 h, and this part of the new forecast track is nudged a little
westward as well.

Key Messages:

1. Outer bands from Fiona will continue to produce heavy rain over
mostly coastal and eastern sections of the Dominican Republic and in
local portions of southern Puerto Rico over the next 24 hours as
Fiona moves north-northwest over the southwest Atlantic Ocean. Heavy
rainfall and localized life-threatening flash flooding will continue
over portions of the Dominican Republic today. Heavy rains around
the center of Fiona will impact the Turks and Caicos through this
afternoon with continued life-threatening flooding. Localized
additional flash and urban flooding is possible in the southern
portion of Puerto Rico.

2. Hurricane conditions are spreading over the Turks and Caicos
islands, while tropical storm conditions should spread over the
southeastern Bahamas during the next few hours.

3. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of
Fiona.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 21.3N 70.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 22.3N 71.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 23.6N 71.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 25.1N 71.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 27.1N 70.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 29.6N 69.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 32.6N 66.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 42.5N 60.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 50.5N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 200852
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...CENTER OF CATEGORY THREE FIONA NEAR GRAND TURK ISLAND...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING STILL
OCCURRING IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 70.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Hurricane Watch for the Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be nearing completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 70.9 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a turn
toward the north tonight or Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Fiona will pass near Grand Turk and the other eastern
Turks and Caicos during the next few hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fiona is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading over the Turks and Caicos
at this time, and these conditions should persist through this
morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
southeastern Bahamas starting in the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: Additional local 1 to 2 inches over
the next 24 hours.

Southern Puerto Rico: Additional local 1 to 4 inches over the next
24 hours. Storm Total 12 to 20 inches with local maximum of 35
inches.

Northern Puerto Rico: Additional local 1 to 2 inches over the next
24 hours. Storm Total 4 to 12 inches with local maximum of 20
inches.

Dominican Republic: Additional 1 to 4 inches with local maximum of 6
inches over the next 24 hours. Storm Total up to 20 inches in the
eastern section.

Turks and Caicos: Additional 4 to 8 inches.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 4 inches.

Heavy rainfall and localized life-threatening flash flooding
continues over portions of the Dominican Republic today. Heavy rains
around the center of Fiona impacts the Turks and Caicos through this
afternoon with continued life-threatening flooding. Localized
additional flash and urban flooding is possible in southern portions
of Puerto Rico.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 5 to 8 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos through today.

Localized coastal flooding is possible for the Southeastern Bahamas
in areas of onshore winds through today.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will continue
to spread westward across the southwestern Atlantic toward the
central and northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of the United
States through midweek. The swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 200851
TCMAT2

HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
0900 UTC TUE SEP 20 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FIONA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 70.9W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 70.9W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 70.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.3N 71.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 23.6N 71.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.1N 71.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 27.1N 70.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.6N 69.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 32.6N 66.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 42.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 50.5N 59.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 70.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 200546
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...FIONA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING STILL
OCCURRING IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 70.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be nearing completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 70.8 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a turn
toward the north tonight or Wednesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Fiona will pass near the easternmost Turks and Caicos
during the next several hours.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185
km/h) with higher gusts. Fiona is now a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
expected during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km). Weather reports relayed by amateur radio indicate
that sustained tropical-storm-force winds are occurring over
portions of the Turks and Caicos islands.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
starting in the next several hours. Tropical storm and hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in the
Dominican Republic for a few more hours.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
southeastern Bahamas starting in the next several hours.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: Additional 2 to 4 inches. Storm
Total up to 10 inches on St. Croix.

Southern Puerto Rico: Additional 3 to 6 inches with local maximum of
8 inches. Storm Total 12 to 20 inches with local maximum of over 30
inches.

Northern Puerto Rico: Additional 1 to 3 inches with local maximum of
5 inches. Storm Total 4 to 12 inches with local maximum of 20
inches.

Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: Additional 4 to 8 inches
with local maximum of 10 inches. Storm Total up to 20 inches in the
eastern section.

Rest of Dominican Republic and Eastern Haiti: 3 to 6 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 3 inches.

These rains will continue to produce life-threatening and
catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides across
Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely for
eastern portions of the Dominican Republic.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 5 to 8 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos through today.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

Localized coastal flooding is possible for the Southeastern Bahamas
in areas of onshore winds through today.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will continue
to spread westward across the southwestern Atlantic toward the
central and northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of the United
States through midweek. The swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 200253
TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022

The satellite presentation of the hurricane has improved
significantly this evening. The eye has warmed and become more
distinct and the surrounding ring of deep convection has cooled and
is more symmetric. More recently, the eye has become smaller in
size and this has also been observed by both NOAA and Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that have been sampling the storm
this evening. The aircraft have reported that the eye has shrunk to
around 10 n mi in diameter. The NOAA plane has measured a peak
flight level wind of 104 kt at around 8000 ft, while the Air Force
aircraft has reported a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 93 kt.
Peak SFMR winds of 94-96 kt have also been found, and these data
support increasing the initial intensity to 95 kt.

The hurricane's outflow is somewhat restricted over the western
portion of the circulation owing to some moderate southwesterly
shear of the storm. Although this shear is not forecast to abate
much, the intensity guidance indicates that warm water and a moist
atmosphere should allow for continued intensification during the
next 24 to 48 hours. Given the recent improvement in structure,
the updated NHC intensity forecast calls for a slightly faster rate
of strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, and it is at the
upper end of the intensity guidance. The official forecast shows
Fiona becoming a major hurricane overnight, and brings the
hurricane to category 4 status in a day or so. Eyewall replacement
cycles are likely to cause some fluctuations in intensity in the
24-72 h time period. By day 4, the hurricane is forecast to
interact with a strong mid-tropospheric trough, which will start
the system's extratropical transition. The process is forecast to
be complete by the end of the period, and Fiona is expected to
remain a powerful extratropical cyclone through day 5.

The initial motion estimate is 330/9 kt. There track forecast
philosophy again remains the same as the previous few forecast
cycles. The hurricane should gradually turn north while moving
around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. After 72 hours,
Fiona is forecast to turn north-northeastward and accelerate as a
strong mid-level trough nears the northeastern United States. The
track guidance remains tightly clustered and the NHC forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Fiona will continue across parts of Puerto Rico
and across northern and eastern Dominican Republic through tonight.
These rainfall amounts will continue to produce life-threatening
and catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides
across Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is
likely for eastern portions of the Dominican Republic.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected over the Turks and Caicos, with
tropical storm conditions over the southeastern Bahamas, beginning
late tonight or early Tuesday.

3. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 20.6N 70.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 21.8N 71.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 23.3N 71.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 24.6N 71.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 26.3N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 28.5N 69.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 31.1N 68.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 39.8N 60.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 49.7N 58.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 200249
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022

...CORE OF FIONA EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE EASTERNMOST TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING STILL
OCCURRING IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 70.3W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be nearing completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 70.3 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday, followed by a
turn toward the north Tuesday night or Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Fiona will pass near easternmost Turks and
Caicos late tonight or early Tuesday.

Data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110
mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is
expected during the next couple of days, and Fiona is forecast to
become a major hurricane later tonight or on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
beginning later tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical storm and
hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
in the Dominican Republic tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
southeastern Bahamas by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: Additional 2 to 4 inches. Storm
Total up to 10 inches on St. Croix.

Southern Puerto Rico: Additional 3 to 6 inches with local maximum of
8 inches. Storm Total 12 to 20 inches with local maximum of over 30
inches.

Northern Puerto Rico: Additional 1 to 3 inches with local maximum of
5 inches. Storm Total 4 to 12 inches with local maximum of 20
inches.

Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: Additional 4 to 8 inches
with local maximum of 10 inches. Storm Total up to 20 inches in the
eastern section.

Rest of Dominican Republic and Eastern Haiti: 3 to 6 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 3 inches.

These rains will continue to produce life-threatening and
catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides across
Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely for
eastern portions of the Dominican Republic.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 5 to 8 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos tonight into Tuesday.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

Localized coastal flooding is possible for the Southeastern Bahamas
in areas of onshore winds tonight into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will continue
to spread westward across the southwestern Atlantic toward the
central and northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of the United
States through midweek. The swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 200249
TCMAT2

HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
0300 UTC TUE SEP 20 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO TO PUERTO PLATA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FIONA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 70.3W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 70.3W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 70.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.8N 71.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 23.3N 71.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.6N 71.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 26.3N 71.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.5N 69.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.1N 68.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 39.8N 60.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 49.7N 58.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 70.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 192358
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 PM AST Mon Sep 19 2022

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND FIONA
STRENGTHENING...
...STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 70.1W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be nearing completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 70.1 West. Fiona is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest on Tuesday and to the north on Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Fiona will pass near or just east of
the Turks and Caicos on Tuesday.

Data from both Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased
to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening
is expected during the next couple of days, and Fiona is forecast
to become a major hurricane later tonight or on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft is 974 mb (28.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
beginning late tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical storm and
hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
in the Dominican Republic tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
southeastern Bahamas by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: Additional 2 to 4 inches. Storm
Total up to 10 inches on St. Croix.

Southern Puerto Rico: Additional 4 to 8 inches with local maximum of
15 inches. Storm Total 12 to 20 inches with local maximum of over
30 inches.

Northern Puerto Rico: Additional 1 to 4 inches with local maximum of
6 inches. Storm Total 4 to 12 inches with local maximum of 20
inches.

Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: Additional 4 to 8 inches
with local maximum of 10 inches. Storm Total up to 20 inches in
the eastern section.

Rest of Dominican Republic and Eastern Haiti: 3 to 6 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 3 inches.

These rains will continue to produce life-threatening and
catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides across
Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely
for eastern portions of the Dominican Republic.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos tonight into Tuesday.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

Localized coastal flooding is possible for the Southeastern Bahamas
in areas of onshore winds tonight into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will continue
to spread westward across the southwestern Atlantic toward the
central and northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of the United
States through midweek. The swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 192122
TCUAT2

Hurricane Fiona Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
525 PM AST Mon Sep 19 2022

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the Dominican
Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to Puerto Plata. A Hurricane
Watch remains in effect from Cabo Caucedo to Puerto Plata.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 192103
TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Mon Sep 19 2022

The hurricane is beginning to move away from the Dominican Republic
and over the warm waters of the Atlantic north of Hispaniola.
Fiona's cloud pattern is well organized and its inner core is
becoming better defined with very cold cloud tops becoming
concentrated near the eye. Upper-level outflow is strong over most
of the circulation. The current intensity estimate is set at 85 kt
which is a little below the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system in a few hours, and assess its
structure and intensity.

Fiona continues to move northwestward, at a slightly faster forward
speed, or at about 325/9 kt. There is little change to the track
forecast philosophy from the previous few advisory packages.
During the next couple of days, the hurricane is expected to
gradually turn toward the north while moving along the western
periphery of a mid-level subtropical anticyclone. In 3-5 days,
Fiona should turn toward the north-northeast and accelerate in
response to a vigorous mid-tropospheric trough near the northeast
coast of the United States.

Global model forecasts continue to show moderate upper-level
west-southwesterly flow over Fiona while it moves over the
southwestern Atlantic early this week. Although this flow should
cause some shear over the hurricane during the next couple of
days, the intensity guidance models indicate that this shear will
not be strong enough to prevent further intensification. The
official intensity forecast has been increased a little more for
this advisory and is in good agreement with the latest LGEM
guidance. It now appears that Fiona will become a major hurricane
sooner than previously forecast.

Near the end of the forecast period, as the system becomes more
embedded within the mid-latitude flow and interacts with the
strong mid-tropospheric trough, it should be making the transition
into a vigorous extratropical cyclone. This is also suggested by
the latest FSU cyclone phases analyses.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from the trailing bands of Fiona will continue
across Puerto Rico through this evening, and across the eastern
Dominican Republic through tonight. These rains could produce
life-threatening and catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and
landslides across Puerto Rico and eastern portions of the Dominican
Republic.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected over the Turks and Caicos, with
tropical storm conditions over the southeastern Bahamas, beginning
late tonight or early Tuesday.

3. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 20.1N 69.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 21.2N 70.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 22.8N 71.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 24.1N 71.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 25.7N 71.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 27.6N 70.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 29.9N 68.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 37.0N 62.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 48.5N 58.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 192100 CCA
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 22...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Mon Sep 19 2022

Corrected the Hurricane Watch breakpoints in Dominican Republic

...FIONA STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 69.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra is
discontinued.

The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Hurricane
Warning to a Hurricane Watch from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo Frances
Viejo, and discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch from Cabo Caucedo
to Barahona.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 69.8 West. Fiona is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward
the north-northwest on Tuesday and to the north on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Fiona will pass near or to the
east of the Turks and Caicos on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected during the
next couple of days, and Fiona is forecast to become a major
hurricane on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
beginning late tonight or early Tuesday. Hurricane conditions
are possible within the hurricane watch area in the Dominican
Republic tonight.

Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the
Dominican Republic within the warning area tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in portions of the southeastern
Bahamas by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: Additional 2 to 4 inches. Storm
Total up to 10 inches on St. Croix.

Southern Puerto Rico: Additional 4 to 8 inches with local maximum of
15 inches. Storm Total 12 to 20 inches with local maximum of over
30 inches.

Northern Puerto Rico: Additional 1 to 4 inches with local maximum of
6 inches. Storm Total 4 to 12 inches with local maximum of 20
inches.

Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: Additional 4 to 8 inches
with local maximum of 10 inches. Storm Total up to 20 inches in
the eastern section.

Rest of Dominican Republic and Eastern Haiti: 3 to 6 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 3 inches.

These rains will continue to produce life-threatening and
catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides across
Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely
for eastern portions of the Dominican Republic.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos Monday night into Tuesday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible for the Southeastern Bahamas
in areas of onshore winds Monday night into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will continue
to spread westward across the southwestern Atlantic toward the
central and northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of the United
States through midweek. The swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 192059 CCA
TCMAT2

HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
2100 UTC MON SEP 19 2022

CORRECTED HURRICANE WATCH BREAKPOINTS IN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA IS
DISCONTINUED.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WARNING TO A HURRICANE WATCH FROM CABO CAUCEDO TO CABO FRANCES
VIEJO...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CABO CAUCEDO
TO BARAHONA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO TO PUERTO PLATA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO
WESTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 69.8W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 69.8W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 69.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.2N 70.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.8N 71.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.1N 71.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.7N 71.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 27.6N 70.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.9N 68.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 37.0N 62.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 48.5N 58.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 69.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 192055
TCMAT2

HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
2100 UTC MON SEP 19 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA IS
DISCONTINUED.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WARNING TO A HURRICANE WATCH FROM CABO CAUCEDO TO CABO FRANCES
VIEJO...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CABO CAUCEDO
TO BARAHONA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO TO CABO FRANCES
VIEJO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO
WESTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 69.8W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 69.8W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 69.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.2N 70.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.8N 71.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.1N 71.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.7N 71.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 27.6N 70.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.9N 68.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 37.0N 62.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 48.5N 58.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 69.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 192056
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Mon Sep 19 2022

...FIONA STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 69.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra is
discontinued.

The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Hurricane
Warning to a Hurricane Watch from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo Frances
Viejo, and discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch from Cabo Caucedo
to Barahona.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo Frances
Viejo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 69.8 West. Fiona is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward
the north-northwest on Tuesday and to the north on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Fiona will pass near or to the
east of the Turks and Caicos on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected during the
next couple of days, and Fiona is forecast to become a major
hurricane on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
beginning late tonight or early Tuesday. Hurricane conditions
are possible within the hurricane watch area in the Dominican
Republic tonight.

Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the
Dominican Republic within the warning area tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in portions of the southeastern
Bahamas by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: Additional 2 to 4 inches. Storm
Total up to 10 inches on St. Croix.

Southern Puerto Rico: Additional 4 to 8 inches with local maximum of
15 inches. Storm Total 12 to 20 inches with local maximum of over
30 inches.

Northern Puerto Rico: Additional 1 to 4 inches with local maximum of
6 inches. Storm Total 4 to 12 inches with local maximum of 20
inches.

Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: Additional 4 to 8 inches
with local maximum of 10 inches. Storm Total up to 20 inches in
the eastern section.

Rest of Dominican Republic and Eastern Haiti: 3 to 6 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 3 inches.

These rains will continue to produce life-threatening and
catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides across
Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely
for eastern portions of the Dominican Republic.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos Monday night into Tuesday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible for the Southeastern Bahamas
in areas of onshore winds Monday night into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will continue
to spread westward across the southwestern Atlantic toward the
central and northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of the United
States through midweek. The swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 191836 CCA
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 21A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 PM AST Mon Sep 19 2022

Corrected maximum winds to 90 mph in discussion and outlook

...FIONA MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC AND LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 69.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo
* Turks and Caicos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 69.5 West. Fiona is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest on Tuesday and to the north on Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Fiona will pass near or to the east of
the Turks and Caicos on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Fiona is forecast to become a major hurricane by Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). An AWOS observation station at Samana El Catey,
Dominican Republic recently reported a wind gust to 98 mph (157
km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in portions of the eastern
Dominican Republic within the warning area, and are expected in the
Turks and Caicos on Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic later
today.

Tropical storm conditions will continue on portions of Puerto Rico
for the next few hours, and over portions of the Dominican
Republic within the warning area through today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas by
early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the
watch area in the Dominican Republic today.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: Additional 2 to 4 inches. Storm
Total up to 10 inches on St. Croix.

Southern Puerto Rico: Additional 4 to 8 inches with local maximum
of 15 inches. Storm Total 12 to 20 inches with local maximum of
over 30 inches.

Northern Puerto Rico: Additional 1 to 4 inches with local maximum of
6 inches. Storm Total 4 to 12 inches with local maximum of 20
inches.

Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: Additional 4 to 8 inches
with local maximum of 10 inches. Storm Total up to 20 inches in
the eastern section.

Rest of Dominican Republic and Eastern Haiti: 3 to 6 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 3 inches.

These rains will continue to produce life-threatening and
catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides across
Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely
for eastern portions of the Dominican Republic.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.

Localized coastal flooding remains possible along the southern coast
of Puerto Rico. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos Monday night into Tuesday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible for the Southeastern Bahamas
in areas of onshore winds Monday night into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks
and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will
continue to spread westward across the southwestern Atlantic toward
the central and northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of the
United States through midweek. The swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 191749
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 PM AST Mon Sep 19 2022

...FIONA MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC AND LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 69.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo
* Turks and Caicos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 69.5 West. Fiona is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest on Tuesday and to the north on Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Fiona will pass near or to the east of
the Turks and Caicos on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Fiona is forecast to become a major hurricane by Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). An AWOS observation station at Samana El Catey,
Dominican Republic recently reported a wind gust to 98 mph (157
km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in portions of the eastern
Dominican Republic within the warning area, and are expected in the
Turks and Caicos on Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic later
today.

Tropical storm conditions will continue on portions of Puerto Rico
for the next few hours, and over portions of the Dominican
Republic within the warning area through today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas by
early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the
watch area in the Dominican Republic today.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: Additional 2 to 4 inches. Storm
Total up to 10 inches on St. Croix.

Southern Puerto Rico: Additional 4 to 8 inches with local maximum
of 15 inches. Storm Total 12 to 20 inches with local maximum of
over 30 inches.

Northern Puerto Rico: Additional 1 to 4 inches with local maximum of
6 inches. Storm Total 4 to 12 inches with local maximum of 20
inches.

Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: Additional 4 to 8 inches
with local maximum of 10 inches. Storm Total up to 20 inches in
the eastern section.

Rest of Dominican Republic and Eastern Haiti: 3 to 6 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 3 inches.

These rains will continue to produce life-threatening and
catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides across
Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely
for eastern portions of the Dominican Republic.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.

Localized coastal flooding remains possible along the southern coast
of Puerto Rico. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos Monday night into Tuesday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible for the Southeastern Bahamas
in areas of onshore winds Monday night into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks
and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will
continue to spread westward across the southwestern Atlantic toward
the central and northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of the
United States through midweek. The swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 191459
TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 19 2022

The center of the hurricane is moving off the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic near eastern Samana Bay. High-resolution
visible satellite imagery from the GOES-16 mesoscale sector show a
well-organized system, but the eye is currently cloud-filled. The
current intensity and central pressure, 75 kt and 980 mb, are based
on the assumption of some weakening and filling due to Fiona's
interaction with the land mass of eastern Hispaniola. An Air Force
Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the hurricane tonight, assuming that the cyclone will have moved
far enough offshore over the waters of the southwestern Atlantic.

Fiona is moving northwestward, or at about 310/7 kt. The system is
moving along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high
pressure area over the subtropical Atlantic. During the next 2-3
days, the hurricane should gradually turn toward the
north-northwest and north as it rounds the western side of the
high. Later in the forecast period, a large and strong trough
moving over the northeastern United States should cause Fiona to
accelerate northeastward and north-northeastward. The official
track forecast remains in agreement with the previous NHC solutions
and is close to both the simple and corrected dynamical model
consensus predictions.

Moderate vertical shear associated with southwesterly upper-level
flow over Fiona is likely to prevail during the next few days.
However, this shear is not expected to be strong enough to offset
the favorable thermodynamics over the southwestern Atlantic. The
official forecast shows steady strengthening with Fiona becoming
a major hurricane within the next couple of days. This is in
line with the latest intensity model guidance and also similar to
the previous NHC forecasts.

As the hurricane accelerates deeper into the mid-latitudes and
begins interacting with the strong trough to its west, it is
expected to begin extratropical transition by day 5, although the
process will likely not be completed until after the end of the
forecast period.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Fiona will continue to produce life-
threatening and catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and
landslides across Puerto Rico through tonight. Life-threatening
flash and urban flooding is likely for eastern portions of the
Dominican Republic through early Tuesday.

2. Hurricane conditions are occuring across portions of the
Dominican Republic within the warning area. Tropical storm
conditions will continue on Puerto Rico through this afternoon and
over portions of the Dominican Republic within the warning area
through tonight.

3. Fiona is forecast to strengthen after moving away from Puerto
Rico and the Dominican Republic. Hurricane conditions are expected
in the Turks and Caicos on Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions
are expected in the southeastern Bahamas by late Monday or early
Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 19.1N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 20.1N 69.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 21.5N 70.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 22.9N 71.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 24.2N 71.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 26.0N 70.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 28.2N 69.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 33.3N 65.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 45.0N 57.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 191458
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 19 2022

...CENTER OF FIONA NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH
OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 69.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF SAMANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo
* Turks and Caicos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 69.2 West. Fiona is moving
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest on Tuesday and to the north on Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Fiona will move over the southwestern
Atlantic this afternoon. The center is forecast to pass near or to
the east of the Turks and Caicos on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days after the
hurricane emerges over the southwestern Atlantic, and Fiona is
forecast to become a major hurricane by Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). An AWOS observation station at Samana El Catey,
Dominican Republic recently reported a wind gust to 81 mph (130
km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in portions of the eastern
Dominican Republic within the warning area, and are expected in the
Turks and Caicos on Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic later
today.

Tropical storm conditions will continue on portions of Puerto Rico
this morning, and over portions of the Dominican Republic within the
warning area through today. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in portions of the southeastern Bahamas by early Tuesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible across the watch area in the Dominican
Republic today.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: Additional 2 to 4 inches. Storm
Total up to 10 inches on St. Croix.

Southern Puerto Rico: Additional 4 to 8 inches with local maximum
of 15 inches. Storm Total 12 to 20 inches with local maximum of
over 30 inches.

Northern Puerto Rico: Additional 1 to 4 inches with local maximum of
6 inches. Storm Total 4 to 12 inches with local maximum of 20
inches.

Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: Additional 4 to 8 inches
with local maximum of 10 inches. Storm Total up to 20 inches in
the eastern section.

Rest of Dominican Republic and Eastern Haiti: 3 to 6 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 3 inches.

These rains will continue to produce life-threatening and
catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides across
Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely
for eastern portions of the Dominican Republic.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.

Localized coastal flooding remains possible along the southern coast
of Puerto Rico. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos Monday night into Tuesday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible for the Southeastern Bahamas
in areas of onshore winds Monday night into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks
and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will
continue to spread westward across the southwestern Atlantic toward
the central and northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of the
United States through midweek. The swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 191458
TCMAT2

HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
1500 UTC MON SEP 19 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO TO CABO
FRANCES VIEJO
* TURKS AND CAICOS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO
WESTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO
WESTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO CAUCEDO TO
BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 69.2W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 69.2W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 68.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.1N 69.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.5N 70.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 22.9N 71.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.2N 71.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 26.0N 70.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.2N 69.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 33.3N 65.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 45.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 69.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 191154
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 AM AST Mon Sep 19 2022

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 69.0W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF SAMANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo
* Turks and Caicos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 69.0 West. Fiona is moving
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest on Tuesday and to the north on Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Fiona will move over the eastern
portion of the Dominican Republic during the next few hours and
emerge over the southwestern Atlantic this afternoon. The center is
forecast to pass near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next few days after
the hurricane emerges over the southwestern Atlantic, and Fiona is
forecast to become a major hurricane by Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km). A Tempest weather station at Miches, Dominican
Republic recently reported a wind gust to 51 mph (81 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in portions of the eastern
Dominican Republic within the warning area, and are expected in the
Turks and Caicos on Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic later
today.

Tropical storm conditions will continue on portions of Puerto Rico
this morning, and over portions of the Dominican Republic within the
warning area through today. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in portions of the southeastern Bahamas by early Tuesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible across the watch area in the Dominican
Republic today.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: Additional 1 to 2 inches. Storm
Total up to 10 inches on St. Croix.

Southern Puerto Rico: Additional 4 to 6 inches with local maximum of
10 inches. Storm Total 12 to 20 inches with local maximum of 30
inches.

Northern Puerto Rico: Additional 1 to 4 inches with local maximum of
6 inches. Storm Total 4 to 12 inches with local maximum of 20
inches.

Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: Additional 4 to 6 inches
with local maximum of 8 inches. Storm Total up to 15 inches in the
eastern section.

Rest of Dominican Republic and Haiti: 1 to 4 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 3 inches.

These rains will continue to produce life-threatening and
catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides across
Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely for
eastern portions of the Dominican Republic.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.

Localized coastal flooding remains possible along the southern coast
of Puerto Rico. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos Monday night into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks
and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will
continue to spread westward across the southwestern Atlantic toward
the central and northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of the
United States through midweek. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 190855
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM AST Mon Sep 19 2022

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 68.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WSW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for Puerto Rico, including Vieques and
Culebra, has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo
* Turks and Caicos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 68.6 West. Fiona is moving
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest on Tuesday and the north on Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Fiona will move over the eastern
portion of the Dominican Republic this morning and emerge over the
southwestern Atlantic this afternoon. The center is forecast to pass
near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next few days after
the hurricane emerges over the southwestern Atlantic, and Fiona is
forecast to become a major hurricane by Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km). The Punta Cana International Airport recently reported a
sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust of 78 mph (126 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in portions of the eastern
Dominican Republic within the warning area, and are expected in the
Turks and Caicos on Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic later
today.

Tropical storm conditions will continue on portions of Puerto Rico
this morning, and over portions of the Dominican Republic within the
warning areas through today. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in portions of the southeastern Bahamas by early Tuesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible across the watch area in the Dominican
Republic today.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: Additional 1 to 2 inches. Storm
Total up to 10 inches on St. Croix.

Southern Puerto Rico: Additional 4 to 6 inches with local maximum of
10 inches. Storm Total 12 to 20 inches with local maximum of 30
inches.

Northern Puerto Rico: Additional 1 to 4 inches with local maximum of
6 inches. Storm Total 4 to 12 inches with local maximum of 20
inches.

Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: Additional 4 to 6 inches
with local maximum of 8 inches. Storm Total up to 15 inches in the
eastern section.

Rest of Dominican Republic and Haiti: 1 to 4 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 3 inches.

These rains will continue to produce life-threatening and
catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides across
Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely for
eastern portions of the Dominican Republic.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.

Localized coastal flooding remains possible along the southern coast
of Puerto Rico. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos Monday night into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks
and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will
continue to spread westward across the southwestern Atlantic toward
the central and northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of the
United States through midweek. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 190854
TCMAT2

HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
0900 UTC MON SEP 19 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA...HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO TO CABO
FRANCES VIEJO
* TURKS AND CAICOS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO
WESTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO
WESTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO CAUCEDO TO
BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 68.6W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 68.6W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 68.4W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.4N 69.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.8N 70.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.2N 71.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 23.6N 71.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.1N 70.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 27.0N 70.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 32.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 42.5N 58.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 68.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 190548
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 AM AST Mon Sep 19 2022

...EYE OF FIONA APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR
PUNTA CANA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH
OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 68.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM S OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo
* Turks and Caicos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 68.4 West. Fiona is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward
motion is expected to begin this morning, followed by a turn toward
the north-northwest on Tuesday and the north on Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Fiona will move over the eastern
portion of the Dominican Republic this morning, and near or to the
east of the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Fiona is forecast to become a major hurricane by Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). A wind gust of 58 mph (93 km/h) was recently reported at
the Punta Cana International Airport in the Dominican Republic.

The minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions will likely continue
on portions of Puerto Rico into this morning. Hurricane
conditions are expected in portions of the eastern Dominican
Republic within the warning area today, and in the Turks and Caicos
on Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane
watch area in the Dominican Republic later today.

Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread over portions of
the Dominican Republic within the warning areas through today.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
southeastern Bahamas by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible across the watch area in the Dominican Republic today.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Leeward Islands: Additional 2 inches or less.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches, maximum of 10 inches
on St. Croix.

Puerto Rico: 12 to 20 inches with local maximum of 30 inches,
particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with local
maximum 12 inches, particularly along the northeast coast.

Rest of Dominican Republic and Haiti: 1 to 3 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 3 inches.

These rains will continue to produce life-threatening and
catastrophic flash and urban flooding across Puerto Rico and the
eastern Dominican Republic, along with mudslides and landslides in
areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.

Localized coastal flooding remains possible along the southern coast
of Puerto Rico. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos Monday night into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks
and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will
continue to spread westward across the southwestern Atlantic toward
the central and northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of the
United States through midweek. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 190255
TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

Radar imagery and recent fixes from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft show that Fiona has jogged westward over the Mona
Passage, in between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic this
evening. Radar, microwave imagery, and observations from the
aircraft indicate that the eye has become smaller, with the radius
of maximum winds decreasing to 10-15 n mi. There has been some
warming of the clouds tops in the band just outside the CDO, but the
conventional satellite presentation has not changed much since late
this afternoon. The aircraft has measured a peak 700-mb flight-
level wind of 75 kt, and SFMR winds of around 70 kt. A dropwindsonde
in the northwestern eyewall measured a mean wind of 89 kt in the
lowest 150 m of the profile, which supports the 75 kt initial
intensity. The aircraft just reported a minimum pressure of 982 mb
on it latest pass through the center just a short time ago.

As mentioned above, Fiona has been moving more westward this
evening, but the longer-term motion estimate is 300/9 kt. With this
westward jog, the center is likely to make landfall in the eastern
portion of the Dominican Republic overnight, and the early portion
of the track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The dynamical
model guidance insists that a northwestward motion should begin
soon, and the models are in good agreement that Fiona will move
around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge over the next
several days. Later in the forecast period, Fiona is forecast to
accelerate northeastward, and north-northeastward ahead of a trough
that is expected to move across the northeastern United States by
the end of the week. The official forecast is near the center of
the guidance envelope, but is slightly slower than the previous
forecast at days 4 and 5 to be closer to the latest consensus aids.

Fiona could strengthen slightly within the next few hours before it
reaches the coast of the Dominican Republic overnight. After that
time, some weakening could occur while the center remains near
eastern Hispaniola. Once Fiona moves over the Atlantic waters
north of the Dominican Republic, the hurricane will be over warm
water and in fairly moist environment. Although there is likely to
be some moderate shear over the hurricane, nearly all of the
intensity models suggest the cyclone will strengthen, and the
official forecast again calls for Fiona to become a major hurricane
in a couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the
IVCN intensity aid, and is similar to the previous wind speed
forecast.

Based on Fiona's latest forecast track, the government of the
Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos
Islands.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in portions of the
warning area in the Dominican Republic within the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread over portions of
the Dominican Republic within the warning area through Monday.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will continue across Puerto Rico overnight
tonight and spread over the Dominican Republic through Monday.
These rains will continue to produce life-threatening and
catastrophic flash and urban flooding across Puerto Rico and
portions of the eastern Dominican Republic, along with mudslides and
landslides in areas of higher terrain.

3. Fiona is forecast to continue to strengthen after moving away
from Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Hurricane conditions
are expected in portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday,
and tropical storm conditions are expected in the southeastern
Bahamas by late Monday or early Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 18.0N 68.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 19.0N 69.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 20.4N 70.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 21.9N 70.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 23.3N 71.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 24.7N 71.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 26.4N 70.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 31.2N 67.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 40.3N 59.8W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 190254
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

...EYE OF FIONA NEARING THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH
OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 68.1W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has changed the Tropical Storm Warning
for the Turks and Caicos to a Hurricane Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the U.S. Virgin Islands has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo
* Turks and Caicos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 68.1 West. Fiona is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward
motion is forecast to begin overnight and continue through Monday,
followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Fiona will move over the eastern
portions of the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and near or
to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). A wind gust of 58 mph (93 km/h) was recently measured at
Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are occurring on
portions of Puerto Rico and will likely continue until Monday
morning. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the
eastern Dominican Republic later tonight and Monday, and in the
Turks and Caicos on Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic late
tonight and Monday.

Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread over portions of
the Dominican Republic within the warning areas through Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
southeastern Bahamas by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible across the watch area in the Dominican Republic tonight and
Monday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Leeward Islands: Additional 2 inches or less.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches, maximum of 10 inches
on St. Croix.

Puerto Rico: 12 to 20 inches with local maximum of 30 inches,
particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with local
maximum 12 inches, particularly along the northeast coast.

Rest of Dominican Republic and Haiti: 1 to 3 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 3 inches.

These rains will continue to produce life-threatening and
catastrophic flash and urban flooding across Puerto Rico and the
eastern Dominican Republic, along with mudslides and landslides in
areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of
high tide...

Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico to Guayama, Puerto Rico...1 to 2 ft

Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto
Rico. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

Localized coastal flooding will be possible along the coasts of the
Turks and Caicos in areas of onshore winds Monday night into
Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 190253
TCMAT2

HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
0300 UTC MON SEP 19 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO TO CABO
FRANCES VIEJO
* TURKS AND CAICOS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO
WESTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO
WESTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO CAUCEDO TO
BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 68.1W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 68.1W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 67.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.0N 69.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.4N 70.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.9N 70.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 23.3N 71.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.7N 71.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 26.4N 70.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 31.2N 67.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 40.3N 59.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 68.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 182349
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 PM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

...CENTER OF FIONA HEADING FOR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH
OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 67.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF MAYAGUEZ PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 67.8 West. Fiona has jogged
westward over the past few hours, but a northwestward motion near
9 mph (15 km/h) should resume later this evening. A northwestward
motion is forecast to continue through Monday, followed by a turn
toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Fiona will move near the eastern and northern coasts of
the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and near or to the east
of the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). A wind gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) was recently
reported at Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico. A sustained wind of 44 mph
(70 km/h) with a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) has been measured at Los
Mareas in Puerto Rico within the past couple of hours.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft data is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring on portions of Puerto
Rico, and are expected in portions of the eastern Dominican Republic
tonight and Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic late tonight and
Monday.

Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread over portions of
the Dominican Republic within the warning areas through Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and portions of the southeastern Bahamas by early Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible across the watch area in the
Dominican Republic tonight and Monday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Leeward Islands: Additional 2 inches or less.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches, maximum of 10 inches
on St. Croix.

Puerto Rico: 12 to 18 inches with local maximum of 30 inches,
particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with local
maximum 12 inches, particularly along the northeast coast.

Rest of Dominican Republic and Haiti: 1 to 3 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches.

These rains will produce life-threatening and catastrophic flash and
urban flooding across Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican
Republic, along with mudslides and landslides in areas of higher
terrain.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of
high tide...

Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico to Guayama, Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft
Guayama, Puerto Rico to Fajardo, Puerto Rico including the islands
of Vieques and Culebra...1 to 2 ft

Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto
Rico. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

Localized coastal flooding will be possible along the coasts of the
Turks and Caicos in areas of onshore winds Monday night into
Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 182059
TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

The eye of Fiona made landfall over extreme southwestern Puerto
Rico around 1920 UTC, and the center of the hurricane is now moving
into the Mona Passage between Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic. Earlier observations from Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
WSR-88D radar velocity data indicate that the maximum winds were
near 75 kt. Since there has been little change in the organization
of the system since the aircraft missions earlier today, the
intensity is kept at that value for now. A NOAA Saildrone went
through the eye of Hurricane Fiona earlier today and the data from
that vessel indicated a minimum central pressure of 986 mb.
Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into Fiona is scheduled
for this evening.

The hurricane will be moving through a fairly moist air mass and
over SSTs warmer than 29 deg C for the next few days. It should be
noted that the SHIPS output shows 15-20 kt of vertical wind shear
over Fiona for the next several days. However that same guidance
model shows steady strengthening with the system becoming a major
hurricane in about 48 hours. Based on the bulk of the numerical
guidance, the official intensity forecast is increased slightly from
the previous NHC prediction, and is near or a little below the
model consensus.

Center fixes indicate that Fiona's motion is between
west-northwest and northwest, or about 305/8 kt. There has been
little change to the track model guidance, which is fairly tightly
clustered albeit with some differences in forward speed. The
cyclone should move along the western periphery of a subtropical
high pressure area for the next 3-4 days. Later in the forecast
period, Fiona is expected to accelerate northeastward and
north-northeastward as it encounter the faster high-latitude flow.
The official track forecast has not been changed significantly,
and remains in close agreement with the TVCA dynamical model.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in portions of the
warning area in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Tropical
storm conditions will reach the Dominican Republic this evening.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will continue across Puerto Rico through
tonight and occur over the Dominican Republic later today into
Monday. These rainfall amounts will produce catastrophic
life-threatening flash floods and urban flooding across Puerto Rico
and portions of the eastern Dominican Republic, along with mudslides
and landslides in areas of higher terrain.

3. Fiona is forecast to continue to strengthen after moving away
from Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas by late Monday or early Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 18.2N 67.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 18.7N 68.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 20.0N 69.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 21.4N 70.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 22.8N 70.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 24.1N 70.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 25.7N 70.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 30.0N 68.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 37.5N 61.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 182056
TCMAT2

HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
2100 UTC SUN SEP 18 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...
MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO TO CABO
FRANCES VIEJO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO
WESTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO
WESTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA
* TURKS AND CAICOS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO CAUCEDO TO
BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 67.3W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 30SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 67.3W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 66.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.7N 68.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.0N 69.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.4N 70.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.8N 70.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.1N 70.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.7N 70.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 30.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 37.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 67.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 182057
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

...FIONA NOW MOVING JUST WEST OF PUERTO RICO AND HEADING FOR THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...CAUSING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 67.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM W OF MAYAGUEZ PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ESE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the Turks and Caicos and for the Southeastern Bahamas,
including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas,
Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 67.3 West. Fiona is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion
is forecast to continue through Monday, followed by a turn toward
the north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Fiona will move near the northern coast of the Dominican
Republic tonight and Monday, and near or to the east of the Turks
and Caicos Islands on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring on portions of Puerto
Rico, and are expected in portions of the eastern Dominican Republic
tonight and Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach portions of the
Dominican Republic within the next few hours. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands and portions
of the southeastern Bahamas by early Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible across the watch area in the Dominican
Republic tonight.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Leeward Islands: Additional 2 inches or less.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches, maximum of 10 inches
on St. Croix.

Puerto Rico: 12 to 18 inches with local maximum of 30 inches,
particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with local
maximum 12 inches, particularly along the northeast coast.

Rest of Dominican Republic and Haiti: 1 to 3 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches.

These rains will produce life-threatening and catastrophic flash and
urban flooding across Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican
Republic, along with mudslides and landslides in areas of higher
terrain.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of
high tide...

Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico to Guayama, Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft
Guayama, Puerto Rico to Fajardo, Puerto Rico including the islands
of Vieques and Culebra...1 to 2 ft

Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto
Rico. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

Localized coastal flooding will be possible along the coasts of the
Turks and Caicos in areas of onshore winds Monday night into
Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 181755
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 PM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

...EYE OF FIONA VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF PUERTO RICO...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 66.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 66.9 West. Fiona is moving
toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northwestward
motion is expected to begin later today and continue through Monday,
followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Fiona will continue to pass near or
over southwestern and western Puerto Rico this afternoon and
evening. Fiona will then move near the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and near or to the east of
the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours while Fiona moves near Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic and over the southwestern Atlantic.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
and hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center. A weather station at Ponce-Isla de Gata Puerto
Rico recently reported a sustained wind of 69 mph (111 km/h) and a
gust to 103 mph (166 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft and NOAA Saildrone observations is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring on Puerto Rico, and
are expected in portions of the eastern Dominican Republic tonight
and Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane
watch area in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach portions of the
Dominican Republic later today. Tropical storm conditions are
possible across the watch area in the Dominican Republic tonight,
and in the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas by
early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Leeward Islands: Additional 2 inches or less.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches, maximum of 10 inches
on St. Croix.

Puerto Rico: 12 to 16 inches with local maximum of 25 inches,
particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with local
maximum 12 inches, particularly along the northeast coast.

Rest of Dominican Republic and Haiti: 1 to 3 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches.

These rains will produce life-threatening and catastrophic flash
flooding and urban flooding across Puerto Rico and the eastern
Dominican Republic, along with mudslides and landslides in areas of
higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of
high tide...

Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft
Vieques and Culebra...1 to 3 ft

Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto
Rico. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 181453
TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

Observations from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
and Doppler velocities from the San Juan WSR-88D radar indicate
that Fiona is strengthening, and is now a hurricane. The aircraft
and radar data support a current intensity of 70 kt. Satellite
imagery shows an expanding upper-level outflow pattern over the
system.

Fiona should be moving in an environment of moderate vertical
shear, over warm SSTs, and within a fairly moist air mass for the
next few days. The only obvious impediments to strengthening
should be the interaction with the land masses of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola during the next day or so. The official forecast is
above the previous one, but still a little below the model
consensus. It appears likely that Fiona will become the first
major hurricane of this Atlantic season in a few days.

Although the movement has still been a little irregular based on
recent aircraft center fixes, a smoothed initial motion is still
west-northwestward, or 285/7 kt. There has been little change to
the track forecast reasoning. Over the next few days, the
hurricane should move along the western periphery of a
mid-tropospheric anticyclone. Thereafter, Fiona is likely to turn
north-northeastward and accelerate later in the forecast period as
it comes under the influence of higher-latitude westerlies. The
official forecast is just a little bit to the left of, and
slightly slower than, the previous NHC track during the first 12 to
24 hours and very close to it thereafter. This is very
similar to the latest dynamical model consensus aid, TVCA.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of Puerto Rico
today and in portions of the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands and will reach the Dominican Republic later today
and tonight.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will continue across Puerto Rico through
tonight and occur over the Dominican Republic later today into
Monday. These rainfall amounts will produce life-threatening flash
floods and urban flooding across Puerto Rico and portions of the
eastern Dominican Republic, along with mudslides and landslides in
areas of higher terrain.

3. Fiona is forecast to continue to strengthen after moving away
from Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas by late Monday or early Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 17.3N 66.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 17.9N 67.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 18.9N 68.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 20.3N 69.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 21.8N 70.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 23.2N 70.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 24.6N 70.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 28.5N 69.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 34.8N 64.4W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 181452
TCMAT2

HURRICANE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
1500 UTC SUN SEP 18 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IS DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO TO CABO
FRANCES VIEJO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO
WESTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO
WESTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO CAUCEDO TO
BARAHONA
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 66.5W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 30SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 66.5W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 66.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.9N 67.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.9N 68.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.3N 69.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.8N 70.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 23.2N 70.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.6N 70.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 28.5N 69.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 34.8N 64.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 66.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 18/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 181452
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

...FIONA BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND MUDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 66.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch for the U.S. Virgin Islands is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 66.5 West. Fiona is moving
toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northwestward
motion is expected to begin later today and continue through
Monday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will approach Puerto Rico
this morning, and move near or over Puerto Rico this afternoon or
evening. Fiona will then move near the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and near or to the east of
the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours while Fiona moves near Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic and over the southwestern Atlantic.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
and hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km)
from the center. A weather station at Las Mareas, Puerto Rico,
recently reported sustained winds of 62 mph (100 km/h) with a gust
to 75 mph (120 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Puerto Rico today, and
are expected in portions of the eastern Dominican Republic tonight
and Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane
watch area in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands and are spreading westward across Puerto Rico. These
conditions are expected to reach portions of the Dominican Republic
later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the
watch area in the Dominican Republic tonight, and in the Turks and
Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Leeward Islands: Additional 2 inches or less.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches, maximum of 10 inches
on St. Croix.

Puerto Rico: 12 to 16 inches with local maximum of 25 inches,
particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with local
maximum 12 inches, particularly along the northeast coast.

Rest of Dominican Republic and Haiti: 1 to 3 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches.

These rains will produce life-threatening flash flooding and urban
flooding across Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic,
along with mudslides and landslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of
high tide...

Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft
Vieques and Culebra...1 to 3 ft

Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto
Rico. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 181156
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 AM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

...FIONA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND MUDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 66.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 66.1 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue
through Monday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will approach
Puerto Rico this morning, and move near or over Puerto Rico this
afternoon or evening. Fiona will then move near the northern coast
of the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and near or to the
east of the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Fiona is expected to become a hurricane before reaching the southern
or southwestern coast of Puerto Rico later today. Additional
strengthening is expected on Monday and Tuesday while Fiona moves
near the Dominican Republic and over the southwestern Atlantic.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. A weather station at Yabucoa-El Negro in Puerto
Rico recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a
gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Puerto Rico today, and
are expected in portions of the eastern Dominican Republic tonight
and Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the U.S. Virgin
Islands this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands and are spreading westward across Puerto Rico. These
conditions are expected to reach portions of the Dominican Republic
later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the
watch area in the Dominican Republic tonight, and in the Turks and
Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Leeward Islands: Additional 2 inches or less.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches, maximum of 10 inches
on St. Croix.

Puerto Rico: 12 to 16 inches with local maximum of 25 inches,
particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with local
maximum 12 inches, particularly near the far east coast.

Rest of Dominican Republic and Haiti: 1 to 3 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches.

These rains will produce life-threatening flash flooding and urban
flooding across Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic,
along with mudslides and landslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of
high tide...

Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft
Vieques and Culebra...1 to 3 ft
U.S. Virgin Islands...1 to 2 ft

Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto
Rico. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 180856
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

Fiona has continued to show signs of better organization in Doppler
radar data from San Juan this morning, and earlier data from an Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the storm has indeed
strengthened. The aircraft reported peak flight-level (700 mb) winds
of 57 kt, along with several instances of SFMR winds greater than 50
kt and a peak of 57 kt in the northeastern quadrant of the storm.
Also, a center dropsonde indicated that the minimum pressure had
fallen a few millibars to 994 mb. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is raised to 55 kt for this advisory.

After a brief northward jog last night, the center of Fiona appears
to have resumed a more west-northwestward heading (290/7 kt). The
storm is expected to turn northwestward later today, which should
bring the center of Fiona near or over the southwestern portion of
Puerto Rico this afternoon and near the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic early Monday. Then, a mid-level trough over the
southwestern Atlantic is forecast to induce a weakness in the
steering ridge early next week. This should enable Fiona to turn
slowly northward by midweek while it passes near or to the east of
the Turks and Caicos Islands. An acceleration to the north and
north-northeast is forecast by late in the week as Fiona moves
within the flow ahead of an amplifying mid- to upper-level trough.
The models are tightly clustered throughout the forecast period and
no major changes were made to the NHC track forecast, which still
lies close to the consensus aids near the center of the guidance
envelope.

Moderate southwesterly to westerly shear appears likely to continue
affecting Fiona during the next several days. However, very warm
sea-surface temperatures and sufficient mid-level moisture are still
expected to allow for some intensification as Fiona approaches
Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The NHC forecast calls for
Fiona to become a hurricane later today before it moves near or over
Puerto Rico. Once the cyclone moves away from land and reaches the
southwestern Atlantic, more significant strengthening is forecast in
agreement with the consensus of the intensity guidance. The latest
NHC intensity forecast has been raised from 48 h through the end of
the forecast period, but still lies slightly below the IVCN and HCCA
aids. Fiona could reach major hurricane strength by late this week
over the western Atlantic.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of Puerto Rico
today, and are expected in portions of the Dominican Republic
tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and are spreading westward
across Puerto Rico. Tropical storm conditions will reach the
Dominican Republic later today and tonight.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will continue across Puerto Rico through
tonight and occur over the Dominican Republic later today into
Monday. These rainfall amounts will produce life-threatening flash
floods and urban flooding across Puerto Rico and portions of the
eastern Dominican Republic, along with mudslides and landslides in
areas of higher terrain.

3. Fiona is forecast to strengthen after moving away from Puerto
Rico and the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas by late Monday or early Tuesday, and a Tropical Storm Watch
has been issued for these locations.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 17.1N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 17.8N 66.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 18.7N 68.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 19.8N 69.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 21.2N 69.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 22.6N 70.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 23.9N 70.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 27.5N 70.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 33.0N 66.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 180855
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

...FIONA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 65.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, including
the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and
the Ragged Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 65.8 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue
through Monday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will approach
Puerto Rico this morning, and move near or over Puerto Rico this
afternoon or evening. Fiona will then move near the northern coast
of the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and near or to the
east of the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Fiona is expected to become a
hurricane before reaching the southern or southwestern coast of
Puerto Rico later today. Additional strengthening is expected on
Monday and Tuesday while Fiona moves near the Dominican Republic and
over the southwestern Atlantic.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. A weather station at Teagues Bay, St. Croix
recently reported a wind gust of 59 mph (94 km/h). A wind gust of
55 mph (89 km/h) was recently reported at Henry E. Rohlsen Airport
on St. Croix.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on earlier aircraft
data is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Puerto Rico today, and
are expected in portions of the eastern Dominican Republic tonight
and Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the U.S. Virgin
Islands this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands and are spreading westward across Puerto Rico. These
conditions are expected to reach portions of the Dominican Republic
later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the watch
area in the Dominican Republic tonight, and in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and southeastern Bahamas by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Leeward Islands: Additional 2 inches or less.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches, maximum of 10 inches
on St. Croix.

Puerto Rico: 12 to 16 inches with local maximum of 25 inches,
particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with local
maximum 12 inches, particularly near the far east coast.

Rest of Dominican Republic and Haiti: 1 to 3 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches.

These rains will produce life-threatening flash flooding and urban
flooding across Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic,
along with mudslides and landslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of
high tide...

Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft
Vieques and Culebra...1 to 3 ft
U.S. Virgin Islands...1 to 2 ft

Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto
Rico. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 180854
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
0900 UTC SUN SEP 18 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE
INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO TO CABO
FRANCES VIEJO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO
WESTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO
WESTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO CAUCEDO TO
BARAHONA
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 65.8W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 30SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 65.8W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 65.5W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.8N 66.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.7N 68.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.8N 69.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.2N 69.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.6N 70.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 23.9N 70.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 27.5N 70.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 33.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 65.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 18/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 180552
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 AM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE FIONA HAS
STRENGTHENED...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO FROM FIONA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 65.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern
Bahamas should monitor the progress of Fiona. Watches will likely
be required for portions of these areas this morning.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 65.5 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue
through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will
pass southwest of the U.S. Virgin Islands and approach Puerto Rico
this morning, and then move near or over Puerto Rico this afternoon
or evening. Fiona will then move near the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and near or to the east of
the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100
km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Fiona is
expected to become a hurricane before reaching the southern or
southwestern coast of Puerto Rico later today. Additional
strengthening is expected on Monday and Tuesday while Fiona moves
over the southwestern Atlantic.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. A wind gust of 48 mph (78 km/h) was recently
reported at Henry E. Rohlsen Airport on St. Croix.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Puerto Rico today, and
are expected in portions of the eastern Dominican Republic tonight
and Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the U.S. Virgin
Islands this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands, and will spread westward across Puerto Rico this
morning and across portions of the Dominican Republic later today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible across the watch area in the
Dominican Republic tonight.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands: Additional 2 inches
or less.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches with local maximum of
10 inches possible.

Puerto Rico: 12 to 16 inches with local maximum of 20 inches
possible, particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Dominican Republic: 4 to 7 inches with local maximum 10 inches
possible, particularly on the far eastern coast.

Haiti: 1 to 3 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 6 inches.

These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding
and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
particularly in Puerto Rico and portions of the eastern Dominican
Republic.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of
high tide...

Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft
Vieques and Culebra...1 to 3 ft
U.S. Virgin Islands...1 to 2 ft

Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto
Rico. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 180253
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

Satellite imagery and Doppler radar data from San Juan indicate that
Fiona is gradually becoming better organized, with the radar showing
increasing banding near the center and a possible decrease in the
radius of maximum winds. However, this has not yet resulted in any
increase in intensity, with the radar winds and data from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggesting that the maximum
sustained winds remain near 50 kt. The aircraft has reported that
the central pressure has fallen to 997 mb.

Fiona's motion has been a bit erratic over the past few hours.
However, the longer-term motion is a somewhat uncertain 285/7 kt. A
turn toward the northwest is expected in about 12 h, with a general
northwestward motion continuing through about 48 h as Fiona is
steered by the subtropical ridge to the northeast. After that, the
cyclone is expected to move slowly northward through a break in the
ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough over the Florida
Peninsula and the adjacent Atlantic. By the end of the forecast
period, a north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is
expected as Fiona reaches the southern edge of the mid-latitude
westerlies. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track
and to the consensus models, with the center forecast to move near
the southwestern portion of Puerto Rico and the northern coast of
the Dominican Republic before passing east of the Turks and Caicos
Islands.

While the vertical wind shear has diminished since yesterday, Fiona
remains in an environment of moderate southwesterly shear, and the
model guidance suggests that this is likely to persist through the
forecast period. This will limit the intensification, although the
storm will pass over warm sea surface temperatures and move into a
more moist environment. The new intensity forecast calls for Fiona
to reach hurricane strength in about 24 h as it passes near Puerto
Rico. After that, development could be interrupted by close
proximity to the Dominican Republic. More earnest strengthening
appears likely when Fiona moves away from land after 48 h, and the
intensity forecast again calls for a peak intensity of 95 kt. It
should be noted that the intensity guidance has a large amount of
spread, and there are models both stronger and weaker than the
official forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of Puerto Rico
on Sunday, and are expected in portions of the Dominican Republic
Sunday night and Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible across
the U.S. Virgin Islands tonight. Tropical storm conditions are now
spreading westward across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and
will spread across Puerto Rico tonight. Tropical storm conditions
will reach the Dominican Republic by late Sunday.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will continue to spread west across the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, the
Dominican Republic Sunday, and the Turks and Caicos Monday night.
These rainfall amounts are expected to produce life-threatening
flash floods and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, especially across portions of Puerto Rico and
portions of the eastern Dominican Republic.

3. Fiona is forecast to strengthen after moving away from Puerto
Rico and past the Dominican Republic on Monday, and interests in the
Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas should continue to
monitor forecasts for the storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 16.6N 64.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 17.2N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 18.1N 67.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 19.1N 68.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 20.3N 69.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 21.6N 70.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 23.0N 70.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 25.5N 70.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 31.0N 67.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 180253
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO FROM FIONA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 64.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane
Warning for the eastern Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to
Cabo Frances Viejo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern
Bahamas should monitor the progress of Fiona. Watches will likely
be required for portions of these areas early Sunday morning.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 64.9 West. Fiona is
moving somewhat erratically toward the west-northwest near 8 mph
(13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight.
A northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Sunday and continue
through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will
move south of the U.S. Virgin Islands and approach Puerto Rico
tonight, and move near or over Puerto Rico Sunday afternoon or
Sunday evening. Fiona will then move near the northern coast of
of the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday, and near or to
the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
Doppler radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near
60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and
Fiona is expected to become a hurricane before reaching the southern
or southwestern coast of Puerto Rico on Sunday. Additional
strengthening is expected on Monday and Tuesday while Fiona moves
over the southwestern Atlantic.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. A station at Teagues Bay, St. Croix, recently
reported a wind gust of 49 mph (79 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Puerto Rico Sunday, and
are expected in portions of the eastern Dominican Republic Sunday
night and Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the U.S.
Virgin Islands tonight and Sunday morning. Hurricane conditions
are possible within the hurricane watch area in the Dominican
Republic Sunday night and Monday.

Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the
Leeward Islands within the warning area through this evening.
Tropical storm conditions are beginning to reach the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands, and will spread westward across Puerto Rico
this evening and tonight and portions of the Dominican Republic
late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the
watch area in the Dominican Republic Sunday night.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands: Additional 2 inches
or less.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches with local maximum of
10 inches possible.

Puerto Rico: 12 to 16 inches with local maximum of 20 inches
possible, particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Dominican Republic: 4 to 7 inches with local maximum 10 inches
possible, particularly on the far eastern coast.

Haiti: 1 to 3 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 6 inches.

These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding
and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
particularly in Puerto Rico and portions of the eastern Dominican
Republic.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of
high tide...

Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft
Vieques and Culebra...1 to 3 ft
U.S. Virgin Islands...1 to 2 ft

Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto
Rico. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 180252
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
0300 UTC SUN SEP 18 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO TO
CABO FRANCES VIEJO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO TO CABO
FRANCES VIEJO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO
WESTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO
WESTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO CAUCEDO TO
BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FIONA. WATCHES WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 64.9W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 30SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 64.9W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 64.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.2N 66.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.1N 67.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.1N 68.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.3N 69.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.6N 70.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 23.0N 70.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 25.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 31.0N 67.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 64.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 18/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 180013 CCA
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 14A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 PM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

Added omitted word in the motion paragraph

...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO FROM FIONA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 64.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern
Bahamas should monitor the progress of Fiona. Watches could be
required for these areas tonight or on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 64.9 West. Fiona is
moving toward generally the west-northwest near 8 mph (15 km/h),
and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A
northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Sunday and continue
through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will
move south of the U.S. Virgin Islands this evening, approach Puerto
Rico tonight, and move across Puerto Rico by Sunday afternoon.
Fiona will then move offshore of the Dominican Republic on Monday
and near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Fiona is expected to become a
hurricane before reaching the southern coast of Puerto Rico on
Sunday. Additional strengthening is expected on Monday and Tuesday
while Fiona moves over the southwestern Atlantic.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. A station at Teagues Bay, St. Croix, recently
reported a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Puerto Rico Sunday and
are possible in the U.S. Virgin Islands tonight. Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in the
Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday.

Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the
Leeward Islands within the warning area through this evening.
Tropical storm conditions are beginning to reach the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands, and will spread westward across Puerto Rico
this evening and tonight and portions of the Dominican
Republic late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible across
the watch area in the Dominican Republic Sunday night.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands: Additional 2 to 4
inches.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches with local maximum of
10 inches possible.

Puerto Rico: 12 to 16 inches with local maximum of 20 inches
possible, particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with local maximum of 12 inches
possible, particularly on the far eastern coast.

Haiti: 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 6 inches.

These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding
and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
particularly in portions of Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican
Republic.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of
high tide...

Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft
Vieques and Culebra...1 to 3 ft
U.S. Virgin Islands...1 to 2 ft

Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto
Rico. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 172358
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 PM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO FROM FIONA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 64.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern
Bahamas should monitor the progress of Fiona. Watches could be
required for these areas tonight or on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 64.9 West. Fiona is
moving toward generally the west-northwest near 8 mph (15 km/h),
and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A
northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Sunday and continue
through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will
move south of the U.S. Virgin Islands this evening, approach Puerto
Rico tonight, and move across Puerto Rico by Sunday afternoon.
Fiona will then offshore of the Dominican Republic on Monday and
near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Fiona is expected to become a
hurricane before reaching the southern coast of Puerto Rico on
Sunday. Additional strengthening is expected on Monday and Tuesday
while Fiona moves over the southwestern Atlantic.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. A station at Teagues Bay, St. Croix, recently
reported a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Puerto Rico Sunday and
are possible in the U.S. Virgin Islands tonight. Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in the
Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday.

Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the
Leeward Islands within the warning area through this evening.
Tropical storm conditions are beginning to reach the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands, and will spread westward across Puerto Rico
this evening and tonight and portions of the Dominican
Republic late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible across
the watch area in the Dominican Republic Sunday night.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands: Additional 2 to 4
inches.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches with local maximum of
10 inches possible.

Puerto Rico: 12 to 16 inches with local maximum of 20 inches
possible, particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with local maximum of 12 inches
possible, particularly on the far eastern coast.

Haiti: 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 6 inches.

These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding
and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
particularly in portions of Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican
Republic.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of
high tide...

Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft
Vieques and Culebra...1 to 3 ft
U.S. Virgin Islands...1 to 2 ft

Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto
Rico. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 172057
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

After going through a bit of a re-organization this morning,
Fiona's structure appears to be improving again. Visible satellite
images show an elongated band of deep convection wrapping around
the center from north to east to southwest, and WSR-88D Doppler
radar from San Juan, Puerto Rico, suggests that a better-defined
center of circulation has developed. A 1707 UTC AMSR-2 microwave
pass also shows that a mid-level eye feature may be developing.
The last Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission from a few hours
ago found that the central pressure had fallen back down to 1002 mb,
but maximum winds still appeared to be around 50 kt. The next
reconnaissance mission is scheduled for this evening.

Fiona's motion today has been discontinuous due to the storm's
center re-formation, but the smoothed longer-term motion is now
west-northwestward, or 285/8 kt. This general motion is expected
to continue through tonight, with Fiona expected to turn
northwestward on Sunday as it begins to move around the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge. A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected by Monday night, followed by a
northward and north-northeastward acceleration over the western
Atlantic by Thursday. In general, the new NHC forecast is close to
the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids, in the middle of the guidance
envelope. This prediction is a little bit north of this morning's
forecast during the first 24 to 36 hours, mainly accounting for
Fiona's adjusted initial position. After 36 hours, the track
forecast is not too different from earlier.

Since the new track forecast has the center of Fiona reaching
Puerto Rico in about 24 hours, the window for strengthening is less
than it was earlier today. However, the NHC intensity forecast is
near the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids and suggests that Fiona will
be at or near hurricane intensity before moving across Puerto Rico
on Sunday. If the center does cross Puerto Rico, that could halt
intensification, or cause some slight weakening, but Fiona is
expected to go through a more significant strengthening phase once
it's over the western Atlantic. The forecast shows Fiona just
below major hurricane intensity by day 5, although it should be
mentioned that this prediction is slightly below the consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of Puerto
Rico on Sunday, and are possible across the U.S. Virgin Islands
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are now spreading westward
across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and will spread
across Puerto Rico this evening and tonight. Tropical storm
conditions will reach the Dominican Republic by late Sunday.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will spread west to the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, the Dominican Republic Sunday,
and the Turks and Caicos Monday night. These rainfall amounts are
expected to produce life-threatening flash floods and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
especially across portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic.

3. Fiona is forecast to strengthen after moving away from Puerto
Rico and past the Dominican Republic on Monday, and interests in the
Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas should continue to
monitor forecasts for the storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 16.7N 64.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 17.3N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 18.1N 66.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO
36H 19/0600Z 19.0N 68.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 19/1800Z 20.1N 69.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 21.4N 69.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 22.7N 70.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 25.4N 70.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 29.9N 68.8W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 172056
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
2100 UTC SAT SEP 17 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS FOR GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. MARTIN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF SINT MAARTEN HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR SINT MAARTEN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
CABO CAUCEDO
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
PUERTO PLATA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
CABO CAUCEDO
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
PUERTO PLATA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO CAUCEDO TO
BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FIONA. WATCHES COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 64.6W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 64.6W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 64.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.3N 65.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.1N 66.7W...OVER PUERTO RICO
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.0N 68.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.1N 69.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.4N 69.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.7N 70.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 25.4N 70.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 29.9N 68.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 64.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 18/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 172056
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO FROM FIONA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 64.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warnings for Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin.

The government of Sint Maarten has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Sint Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern
Bahamas should monitor the progress of Fiona. Watches could be
required for these areas tonight or on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 64.6 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A northwestward
motion is forecast to begin on Sunday and continue through Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will move south of the
U.S. Virgin Islands this evening, approach Puerto Rico tonight, and
move across Puerto Rico by Sunday afternoon. Fiona will then
offshore of the Dominican Republic on Monday and near or to the
east of the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Fiona is expected to become a
hurricane before reaching the southern coast of Puerto Rico on
Sunday. Additional strengthening is expected on Monday and Tuesday
while Fiona moves over the southwestern Atlantic.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 42060 east-southeast of Fiona's center
recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to
51 mph (83 km/h). A station at Teagues Bay, St. Croix, recently
reported a sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a gust to 44 mph
(70 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Puerto Rico Sunday and
are possible in the U.S. Virgin Islands tonight. Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in the
Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday.

Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the
Leeward Islands within the warning area through this evening.
Tropical storm conditions are beginning to reach the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands, and will spread westward across Puerto Rico
this evening and tonight and portions of the Dominican
Republic late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible across
the watch area in the Dominican Republic Sunday night.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands: Additional 2 to 4
inches.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches with local maximum of
10 inches possible.

Puerto Rico: 12 to 16 inches with local maximum of 20 inches
possible, particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with local maximum of 12 inches
possible, particularly on the far eastern coast.

Haiti: 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 6 inches.

These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding
and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
particularly in portions of Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican
Republic.

Very heavy rains and flooding have occurred over portions of the
Leeward Islands since Friday. A station at St. Claude Matouba Irfa,
in the mountains in southwestern Guadeloupe, recently measured a
24-hour rainfall total of 19.85 inches (504.2 mm).

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of
high tide...

Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft
Vieques and Culebra...1 to 3 ft
U.S. Virgin Islands...1 to 2 ft

Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto
Rico. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 171753
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 PM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

...FIONA'S HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 64.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern
Bahamas should monitor the progress of Fiona.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 16.6 North, longitude 64.1 West. Fiona is moving toward
the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a
similar forward speed is expected to begin later today, followed by
a turn toward the northwest by Sunday evening. On the forecast
track, the center of Fiona is expected to move near or south of the
Virgin Islands this evening, approach Puerto Rico tonight, and move
near or over Puerto Rico Sunday night. Fiona should then move near
the Dominican Republic on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Fiona
is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday or Sunday night while
moving near Puerto Rico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Puerto Rico Sunday and
Sunday night and are possible in the U.S. Virgin Islands tonight.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in
the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday.

Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the
Leeward Islands within the warning area through this afternoon.
Tropical storm conditions will reach the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands this afternoon, spread westward across Puerto Rico tonight,
and reach portions of the Dominican Republic Sunday night.
Tropical storm conditions are possible across the watch
area in the Dominican Republic Sunday night.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands: Additional 2 to 4
inches.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches with local maximum of
10 inches possible.

Puerto Rico: 12 to 16 inches with local maximum of 20 inches
possible, particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with local maximum of 12 inches
possible, particularly on the far eastern coast.

Haiti: 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 6 inches.

These rains are likely to produce flash and urban flooding, along
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly southern and
eastern Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic.

Very heavy rains and flooding have occurred over portions of the
Leeward Islands since Friday. A station at St. Claude Matouba Irfa,
in the mountains in southwestern Guadeloupe, recently measured a
24-hour rainfall total of 19.46 inches (494.3 mm).

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of
high tide...

Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft
Vieques and Culebra...1 to 3 ft
U.S. Virgin Islands...1 to 2 ft

Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto
Rico. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 171455
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

Fiona is going through some structural changes this morning. From
a zoomed-out view on satellite imagery, Fiona appears better
organized compared to previous days, with the convective envelope
becoming more symmetric, and upper-level outflow expanding around
most of the storm. However, Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data indicate that the central part of the
circulation still lacks some vertical coherency. From the best we
can tell from the aircraft data, the low-level center appears to be
re-forming farther east near a recent burst of deep convection.
The central pressure may have risen a bit during this
re-organization process, but maximum winds are still estimated to
be 50 kt.

With the center re-formation, the initial motion has become more
uncertain, although Fiona has definitely slowed down from
yesterday. The longer-term average motion is 275/7 kt. The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged, with Fiona expected to
gradually recurve around the western extent of the western
Atlantic subtropical ridge through the 5-day forecast period. The
big change, however, is that the adjusted initial position due to
the center re-formation has tugged all of the guidance eastward on
this cycle. The new NHC forecast is also east of the previous one
and lies close to the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids, now showing a
track near or over the western part of Puerto Rico in about 36
hours. The caveat to this forecast is that additional center
re-formations could cause models to shift again, and therefore
there's quite a bit of uncertainty in the short-term track
forecast. Especially in cases like this, users are reminded to not
focus solely on the track forecast itself, and to account for
potential shifts in the track east or west.

The upper-level environment over Fiona has improved, and deep-layer
shear is expected to be light to moderate for the next several
days. In fact, along with a favorable thermodynamic environment,
the Rapid Intensification Indices have increased, and now show a
1-in-3 chance of a 30-kt increase over the next 24 hours. There is
some uncertainty as to how quickly Fiona can take advantage of
these favorable conditions given its current structure. But either
way, intensification is anticipated, and Fiona is likely to be near
or at hurricane strength while it moves near Puerto Rico on Sunday.
The NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous
prediction, but it still lies below the intensity consensus aids.
If Fiona gets better organized today, then it's possible that
additional increases to the intensity forecast will be forthcoming
later today.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of Puerto
Rico Sunday and Sunday night, and are possible across the U.S.
Virgin Islands tonight and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions will
continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands today and will
spread westward to the U.S. and British Virgin Islands later
today, and to Puerto Rico tonight. Tropical storm conditions will
reach the Dominican Republic by Sunday night.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will spread west to the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, the Dominican Republic Sunday,
and the Turks and Caicos Monday night. This rainfall is likely to
produce considerable flood impacts including flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
particularly in Puerto Rico.

3. Fiona is forecast to strengthen while moving near Puerto Rico
and the Dominican Republic through Monday, and interests in the
Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas should continue to
monitor forecasts for the storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 16.3N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 16.6N 64.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 17.3N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 18.2N 67.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR PUERTO RICO
48H 19/1200Z 19.2N 68.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 20.4N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 21.6N 70.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 23.9N 70.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 27.6N 69.7W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 171455
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
1500 UTC SAT SEP 17 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD
TO CABO CAUCEDO
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
PUERTO PLATA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. MARTIN
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD
TO CABO CAUCEDO
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
PUERTO PLATA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO CAUCEDO TO
BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FIONA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 63.5W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 63.5W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 63.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.6N 64.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.3N 66.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.2N 67.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.2N 68.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.4N 69.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.6N 70.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 23.9N 70.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 27.6N 69.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 63.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 171455
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...
...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 63.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Puerto Rico, including
Vieques and Culebra.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern
Bahamas should monitor the progress of Fiona.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Fiona's center has re-formed farther east. At 1100
AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located
near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 63.5 West. Fiona is moving
toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-northwestward motion
at a similar forward speed is expected to begin later today,
followed by a turn toward the northwest by Sunday evening. On the
forecast track, the center of Fiona is expected to move near or
south of the Virgin Islands this evening, approach Puerto Rico
tonight, and move near or over Puerto Rico Sunday night. Fiona
should then move near the Dominican Republic on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Fiona is
expected to become a hurricane by Sunday or Sunday night while
moving near Puerto Rico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Puerto Rico Sunday and
Sunday night and are possible in the U.S. Virgin Islands tonight.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in
the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday.

Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the
Leeward Islands within the warning area through this afternoon.
Tropical storm conditions will reach the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands this afternoon, spread westward across Puerto Rico tonight,
and reach portions of the Dominican Republic Sunday night.
Tropical storm conditions are possible across the watch
area in the Dominican Republic Sunday night.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands: Additional 2 to 4
inches.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches with local maximum of
10 inches possible.

Puerto Rico: 12 to 16 inches with local maximum of 20 inches
possible, particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with local maximum of 12 inches
possible, particularly on the far eastern coast.

Haiti: 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 6 inches.

These rains are likely to produce flash and urban flooding, along
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly southern and
eastern Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of
high tide...

Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft
Vieques and Culebra...1 to 3 ft
U.S. Virgin Islands...1 to 2 ft

Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto
Rico. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 171156
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 AM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND FIONA A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 63.4W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane
Watch for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo
Engano westward to Cabo Caucedo and for the northern coast from
Cabo Engano westward to Puerto Plata.

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of
Fiona. Additional watches or warnings could be required today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 16.1 North, longitude 63.4 West. Fiona is moving toward
the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday
night. A turn toward the northwest is forecast early next week. On
the forecast track, the center of Fiona is expected to move near or
just south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today through
Sunday, and approach the southern or eastern coast of the Dominican
Republic Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and Fiona could be at or near
hurricane strength when it moves near Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

Data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on Puerto Rico late
tonight or on Sunday, and within the hurricane watch area in the
Dominican Republic late Sunday through Monday.

Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the
Leeward Islands within the warning area through this morning.
Tropical storm conditions will reach the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands later this morning, spread westward across Puerto Rico this
afternoon and tonight, and reach portions of the Dominican Republic
on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the watch
area in the Dominican Republic beginning Sunday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands: Additional 2 to 4
inches.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches with local 10 inches
possible.

Puerto Rico: 5 to 10 inches with local 16 inches possible,
particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with 12 inches possible,
particularly on the far eastern coast.

Haiti: 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 10 inches.

These rains are likely to produce flash and urban flooding, along
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly in southern
and eastern Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of
high tide...

Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft

Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.
Swells will spread westward to the northern coast of Hispaniola, the
Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas over the
weekend. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 170859
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

While the center of Fiona is moving westward over the northeastern
Caribbean Sea, the strongest winds and heaviest rains associated
with the storm are still displaced to the east of the center by some
westerly shear. Tropical storm conditions are ongoing over portions
of the Leeward Islands. Earlier data from an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicated the minimum pressure had fallen slightly
to 1000 mb, but the aircraft winds on the final passes did not show
signs of additional strengthening. A blend of the latest satellite
intensity estimates and the earlier aircraft data support an initial
intensity of 50 kt for this advisory. NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Fiona this morning.

The center of Fiona was adjusted a bit south of the previous track
based on aircraft and radar data, and the initial motion is westward
at 275/11 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected
through Sunday, which brings the center of Fiona near or just south
of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and toward the eastern portion
of the Dominican Republic. Although some of the track guidance
shifted a bit right this cycle, the adjusted initial position
resulted in little net change to the NHC track forecast with regard
to Fiona's closest approach to Puerto Rico. However, it is noted
that the latest track forecast is somewhat slower than the previous
one based on the latest guidance trends. After passing near or over
the Dominican Republic, a northwestward and northward turn is
expected next week over the southwestern Atlantic. The forecast
track at days 3-5 was nudged a bit eastward based on the consensus
aids.

Fiona is expected to encounter slightly more favorable environmental
conditions over the next 24-48 h. In particular, the westerly shear
that has plagued Fiona for days is forecast to weaken, which could
allow the cyclone's structure to improve and become more vertically
aligned. The latest intensity guidance is stronger than the previous
cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted upward during the
first 36 h of the period. Fiona could be at or near hurricane force
when it passes near Puerto Rico later this weekend, and a Hurricane
Watch has been issued to account for this potential. If current
trends continue, further increases to the intensity forecast may be
necessary on future cycles. Some brief weakening is possible due to
interaction with the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, but
re-strengthening seems likely once Fiona moves over the southwestern
Atlantic next week. The NHC intensity forecast has been raised on
days 3-5 in line with the latest consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of the
Leeward Islands through this morning. Tropical storm conditions
will reach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands this morning and
spread westward across Puerto Rico later today and tonight. Fiona
could be near hurricane strength as it moves near Puerto Rico late
tonight and on Sunday, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued.
Additional watches or warnings could be required later today for
portions of the Dominican Republic.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will spread west to British and U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, the Dominican Republic Sunday,
and the Turks and Caicos Monday night. This rainfall is likely to
produce considerable flood impacts including flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
particularly in Puerto Rico.

3. Fiona is forecast to strengthen after moving across Hispaniola
early next week, and interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas should continue to monitor forecasts for the
storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 16.4N 63.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 16.7N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 17.1N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 17.7N 67.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 18.6N 68.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
60H 19/1800Z 19.7N 69.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 20/0600Z 20.8N 70.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 23.0N 71.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 26.0N 71.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 170856
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

...FIONA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 63.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico, including Vieques
and Culebra.

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Antigua and Barbuda.

The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward
to Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo westward
to Barahona

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of
Fiona. Additional watches or warnings could be required today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 63.3 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected through Sunday night. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona
is expected to move near or just south of the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico today through Sunday, and approach the southern or
eastern coast of the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and Fiona could be near hurricane
strength when it moves near Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic
this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. A wind gust of 45 mph (72 km/h) was recently
reported at F.D. Roosevelt Airport on Sint Eustatius.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area over
portions of Puerto Rico late tonight or on Sunday. Tropical storm
conditions will continue across portions of the Leeward Islands
within the warning area through this morning. Tropical storm
conditions will reach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands later
this morning, spread westward across Puerto Rico this afternoon and
tonight, and reach portions of the Dominican Republic on Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible across the watch area in the
Dominican Republic beginning Sunday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands: Additional 2 to 4
inches.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches with local 10 inches
possible.

Puerto Rico: 5 to 10 inches with local 16 inches possible,
particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with 12 inches possible,
particularly on the far eastern coast.

Haiti: 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 10 inches.

These rains are likely to produce flash and urban flooding, along
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly in southern
and eastern Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of
high tide...

Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft

Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Swells will spread westward to the northern coast of Hispaniola, the
Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas over the
weekend. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 170855
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
0900 UTC SAT SEP 17 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR DOMINICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. MARTIN
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD
TO CABO CAUCEDO
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
PUERTO PLATA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO WESTWARD
TO BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
FIONA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 63.3W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 60SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 63.3W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 62.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.7N 64.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.1N 66.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.7N 67.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.6N 68.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.7N 69.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.8N 70.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 23.0N 71.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 26.0N 71.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 63.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 170548
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 AM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

...FIONA MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 62.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward
to Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo westward
to Barahona

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of
Fiona. Additional watches or warnings could be required today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 62.8 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected through Sunday night. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona is
expected to move near or just south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico today into Sunday, and approach the southern or eastern coast
of the Dominican Republic Sunday afternoon. Fiona is forecast to
move across the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Fiona could be near hurricane
strength when it reaches the Dominican Republic on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. A wind gust of 45 mph (72 km/h) was recently
reported at Princess Juliana International Airport on Sint Maarten.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the Leeward Islands within the warning area through early this
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions will reach the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands this morning, spread westward across Puerto Rico this
afternoon and tonight, and reach portions of the Dominican Republic
early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Dominica
early this morning and across the watch area in the Dominican
Republic beginning Sunday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall
totals:

Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands: 3 to 6 inches.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches.

Puerto Rico: 4 to 8 inches with maximum totals of 12 inches,
particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Dominican Republic: 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 16 inches
possible.

Haiti: 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly in southern and
eastern Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of
high tide...

Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 2 ft

Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Swells will spread westward to the northern coast of Hispaniola, the
Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas over the
weekend. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 170245
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 16 2022

The center of Fiona moved across the island of Guadeloupe a few
hours ago and it is now over the far northeastern Caribbean Sea.
Deep convection has been increasing near the center, and reports
from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that Fiona is a
little stronger. The maximum SFMR winds recorded on the flight so
far were 50 kt and peak flight-level winds measured were 61 kt.
This supports nudging the initial intensity back up to 50 kt. The
minimum pressure of 1002 mb is based on a surface observation from
Guadeloupe. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are expected
to continue across the Leeward Islands through Saturday afternoon.

Fiona continues to move just north of due west, or 280 degrees, at
13 kt on the south side of a deep-layer ridge. A west to
west-northwest motion is expected during the next day or so, and
that should take Fiona near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
during that time. The cyclone is expected to slow down and make a
turn to the northwest when it is near or over the Dominican Republic
on Monday as it moves toward a weakness in the ridge. A northward
motion near the southeastern Bahamas is expected during the early
and middle portions of next week. The models generally show a
similar theme, but there are notable differences in where, when, and
how sharply Fiona makes the northwestward and northward turns. The
NHC track forecast is essentially the same as the previous one
through 60 h, but a touch to the east of the previous track from
days 3 to 5. This forecast lies close to the various consensus
aids.

Fiona is still feeling some effects of westerly vertical wind shear
and dry air entrainment, but the models suggest that the storm could
be moving into a region of higher moisture and slightly less shear.
These conditions should support slow strengthening and Fiona could
be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Dominican
Republic. Some weakening is expected due to the interaction with
the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, but re-strengthening is
forecast when it moves north of that island. Fiona is expected to
reorganize over the southwestern Atlantic and become a hurricane in
about 4 days with additional strengthening after that. The NHC
intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one at days
4 and 5, but still below the IVCN and HCCA models.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of the
Leeward Islands through Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions
will spread westward across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on
Saturday and Puerto Rico late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical
storm conditions are possible over Dominica overnight.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona are beginning in the Leeward Islands, and
will spread to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico Saturday, reaching the Dominican Republic Sunday, and Haiti
and the Turks and Caicos Monday through Tuesday. This rainfall
may produce considerable flood impacts including flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

3. Fiona is expected to strengthen gradually over the northeastern
Caribbean Sea, and it could be near hurricane strength as it
approaches the southern or eastern coast of the Dominican Republic
Sunday afternoon. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for
portions of the island and additional watches or warnings could be
required on Saturday.

4. Fiona is forecast to strengthen after moving across Hispaniola
early next week, and interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas should continue to monitor forecasts for the
storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 16.6N 62.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 17.0N 63.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 17.4N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 17.8N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 18.4N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
60H 19/1200Z 19.4N 69.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 20/0000Z 20.4N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 22.3N 71.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 24.7N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 170244
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 16 2022

...FIONA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 62.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WNW OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning from Cabo Caucedo on the south coast around the
eastern portion of the island to Puerto Plata on the north coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward
to Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo westward
to Barahona

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of
Fiona. Additional watches or warnings could be required on
Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 62.2 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected through Sunday night. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of
Fiona is expected to move near or just south of the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico Saturday into Sunday, and approach the southern or
eastern coast of the Dominican Republic Sunday afternoon. Fiona is
forecast to move across the Dominican Republic Sunday night and
Monday.

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Fiona could be
near hurricane strength when it reaches the Dominican Republic on
Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. A wind gust of 44 mph (70 km/h) was recently
reported at VC Bird International Airport in Antigua.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the Leeward Islands within the warning area through Saturday
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions will spread westward to the
U.S. and British Virgin Islands Saturday morning, and across Puerto
Rico Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, and across portions of
the Dominican Republic early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible on Dominica during the next several hours and across the
watch area in the Dominican Republic beginning Sunday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall
totals:

Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands: 3 to 6 inches.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches.

Puerto Rico: 4 to 8 inches with maximum totals of 12 inches,
particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Dominican Republic: 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 16 inches
possible.

Haiti: 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly southern and
eastern Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of
high tide...

Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 2 ft

Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the Dominican Republic.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Swells will reach the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas over the weekend.
These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 170244
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
0300 UTC SAT SEP 17 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FROM CABO CAUCEDO ON THE SOUTH COAST AROUND THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND TO PUERTO PLATA ON THE NORTH COAST.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. MARTIN
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD
TO CABO CAUCEDO
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
PUERTO PLATA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO WESTWARD
TO BARAHONA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
FIONA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED ON
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 62.2W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 60SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 62.2W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 61.6W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.0N 63.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.4N 65.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.8N 67.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.4N 68.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.4N 69.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.4N 70.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 22.3N 71.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 24.7N 72.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 62.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 162341
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 PM AST Fri Sep 16 2022

...CENTER OF FIONA VERY NEAR GUADELOUPE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 61.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Barahona
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Frances Viejo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of
Fiona. Additional watches or warnings could be required tonight or
on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 61.5 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected through early Monday. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast later on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of
Fiona is expected to move near or just south of the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico Saturday into Sunday, and approach the southern or
eastern coast of the Dominican Republic Sunday afternoon. Fiona is
forecast to move across the Dominican Republic Sunday night and
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast until the center of Fiona
reaches the Dominican Republic on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. A wind gust of 44 mph (70 km/h) was recently
reported at VC Bird International Airport in Antigua.

Observations from Guadeloupe indicate that the minimum central
pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions
of the Leeward Islands within the warning area through Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions will spread westward to the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands Saturday morning, and across Puerto Rico
Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions
are possible on Dominica during the next several hours and across
the watch area in the Dominican Republic beginning Sunday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall
totals:

Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands: 3 to 6 inches.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches

Puerto Rico: 4 to 8 inches with maximum totals of 12 inches,
particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Dominican Republic: 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 16 inches
possible

Haiti: 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches

These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly southern and
eastern Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of
high tide...

Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 2 ft

Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the Dominican Republic.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward and
northern Windward Islands, and are beginning to reach the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico. Swells will then reach the northern coast
of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern
Bahamas over the weekend. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 162049
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Fri Sep 16 2022

The bulk of the Fiona's convective activity remains sheared to the
east of the center. However, there are some initial signs of new
convection developing in a small ring around the center, the
low-level cloud field is thickening up a bit, and visible satellite
images show high-level convective cirrus blowing from east to west.
It remains to be seen if this is suggestive of some lessening of the
deep-layer shear over the system and a moistening of the ambient
atmosphere. The initial intensity remains 45 kt given little change
in Fiona's organization since earlier today. The next Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance mission is scheduled for this evening.

Fiona's center jumped a bit to the north today, and it's just
about to move over or just to the north of Guadeloupe. The initial
motion is estimated to be 280 degrees at 13 kt, with the storm
being steered westward by subtropical ridging to the north. The
track forecast philosophy has not changed from earlier today.
Fiona is expected to reach the western edge of the ridge, slow
down, and turn northwestward by day 3, and then north-northwestward
by day 5. The guidance remains in generally good agreement on this
scenario, with the notable exception being the ECMWF model, which
shows a smaller Fiona not turning as sharply or moving as fast as
in the other models by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC
track prediction is adjusted northward during the first 48-60 hours
of the forecast to account for the northward jump of the center,
but it otherwise falls back in line with this morning's forecast on
days 3 through 5 and lies a bit to the west of the consensus aids.

Assuming that recent satellite trends are a harbinger of possible
strengthening, the NHC intensity forecast continues to show gradual
intensification while Fiona moves across the far northeastern
Caribbean Sea during the next 48 hours. Although Hispaniola's
terrain could cause some weakening in the 60-72 hour period, the
amount of weakening will probably depend on how much of the wind
field moves over the island or remains over the adjacent waters.
After 72 hours, the global models indicate that the circulation
will become re-established over the far southwestern Atlantic, and
the official forecast continues to show Fiona becoming a
hurricane by the end of the forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are beginning to spread across the
Leeward Islands and will continue through Saturday morning.
Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands on Saturday and Puerto Rico late Saturday
and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible over
Dominica tonight and within the watch area in the Dominican
Republic on Sunday.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will reach the Leeward Islands by this
evening, spreading to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico Saturday, reaching the Dominican Republic Sunday, and Haiti
and the Turks and Caicos Monday through Tuesday. This rainfall
may produce considerable flood impacts including flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

3. Fiona is expected to strengthen gradually over the northeastern
Caribbean Sea, and it could be near hurricane strength as it
approaches the southern or eastern coast of the Dominican Republic
Sunday afternoon. Warnings could be required for portions of
the Dominican Republic tonight or on Saturday.

4. Fiona is forecast to strengthen after moving across Hispaniola
early next week, and interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas should continue to monitor forecasts for the
storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 16.4N 61.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 16.8N 62.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 17.2N 64.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 17.6N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 18.2N 68.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 18.8N 69.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER DOM. REPUBLIC
72H 19/1800Z 19.6N 70.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER DOM. REPUBLIC
96H 20/1800Z 21.6N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 21/1800Z 23.6N 72.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 162048
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Fri Sep 16 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING ON PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 61.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ENE OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Barahona
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Frances Viejo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of
Fiona. Additional watches or warnings could be required tonight or
on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 61.1 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected through early Monday. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast later on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of
Fiona is expected to move across the Leeward Islands during the
next few hours, near or just south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico Saturday into Sunday, and approach the southern or eastern
coast of the Dominican Republic Sunday afternoon. Fiona is
forecast to move across the Dominican Republic Sunday night and
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours or so
before the center of Fiona reaches the Dominican Republic on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

Observations from Guadeloupe indicate that the minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are beginning across portions of
the Leeward Islands within the warning area and will continue
through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions will spread westward to
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands Saturday morning, and across
Puerto Rico Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Tropical storm
conditions are possible on Dominica this evening or tonight and
across the watch area in the Dominican Republic beginning Sunday
afternoon.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall
totals:

Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands: 3 to 6 inches.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches

Puerto Rico: 4 to 8 inches with maximum totals of 12 inches,
particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Dominican Republic: 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 16 inches
possible

Haiti: 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches

These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly southern and
eastern Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of
high tide...

Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 2 ft

Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the Dominican Republic.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward and
northern Windward Islands, and are beginning to reach the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico. Swells will then reach the northern coast
of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern
Bahamas over the weekend. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 162047
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
2100 UTC FRI SEP 16 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. MARTIN
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
BARAHONA
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
CABO FRANCES VIEJO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
FIONA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR
ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 61.1W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 75SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 61.1W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 60.4W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.8N 62.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.2N 64.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.6N 66.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.2N 68.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.8N 69.2W...OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.6N 70.2W...OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 21.6N 71.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 23.6N 72.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 61.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 161750
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 PM AST Fri Sep 16 2022

...FIONA'S CENTER APPROACHING GUADELOUPE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 60.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has upgraded the Tropical
Storm Watch for the British Virgin Islands to a Tropical Storm
Warning.

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo
Engano westward to Barahona, and for the north coast from Cabo
Engano westward to Cabo Frances Viejo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Barahona
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward
to Cabo Frances Viejo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of
this system. Additional watches or warnings could be required
tonight or on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 60.3 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Sunday,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and northwest Sunday
and Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona is
expected to move across the Leeward Islands tonight, near or just
south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Saturday into Sunday,
and approach the southern coast of the Dominican Republic Sunday
night and early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of
the Leeward Islands within the warning area beginning this
afternoon and continuing through Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions will spread westward to the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands on Saturday, and across Puerto Rico late Saturday and
Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Dominica
this evening or tonight and across the watch area in the Dominican
Republic beginning late Sunday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall
totals:

Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands: 3 to 6 inches.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches

Puerto Rico: 4 to 8 inches with maximum totals of 12 inches,
particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Eastern Dominican Republic: 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 16
inches possible

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches

These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly southern and
eastern Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic.

STORM SURGE: Localized coastal flooding will be possible along the
coasts of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in areas of
onshore winds Saturday into Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward and
northern Windward Islands, and are expected to spread westward to
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. Swells will then reach the
northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas over the weekend. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 161449
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 16 2022

Convective activity is occurring much closer to the low-level
center of Fiona this morning, suggesting that the deep-layer
westerly shear has decreased a bit. Air Force Reserve and NOAA
Hurricane Hunters have been flying through Fiona during the past
several hours, and winds as high as 57 kt were reported about 2500
ft above the surface, along with SFMR winds slightly higher than 45
kt. The initial intensity remains 45 kt for now, but Fiona
could easily attain 50 kt soon if the deep convection remains close
to the center.

After losing latitude most of the day yesterday and overnight,
Fiona has started moving north of due west, with an initial motion
of 275/12 kt. A north-of-due-west motion with some slowing of the
forward speed is expected through early Sunday, with Fiona steered
across the Leeward Islands and the far northeastern Caribbean Sea
by subtropical ridging over the western Atlantic. Fiona then
reaches the western extent of the ridge just beyond 48 hours, and
it is expected to move more slowly and turn northwestward across
Hispaniola in 3-4 days, and then be near the Turks and Caicos
Islands and southeastern Bahamas in about 5 days. The spread among
the deterministic track models and the ensembles has decreased since
yesterday, and there's therefore a little bit more confidence in
the NHC track prediction. In addition, there has not been much
shift in the guidance since the previous forecast cycle, and the
updated NHC forecast lies very close to the previous prediction,
and in the middle of the guidance envelope close to the TVCN and
HCCA consensus aids.

Fiona is located near a tight gradient of deep-layer shear, and
it's possible that its south-of-due-west motion since yesterday
brought it into a lighter-shear environment for the convection to
build back closer to the center. Model guidance indicates that the
shear is likely to remain moderate for much of the forecast period,
but at the same time, upper-level divergence and mid-level moisture
are forecast to increase. Coupled with the expected decrease in
forward speed, these factors could allow Fiona's structure to
become more vertically stacked over the northeastern Caribbean Sea,
and gradual strengthening is still anticipated during the next 3
days. Based on this forecast, Fiona could be very near hurricane
strength as it approaches the southern coast of the Dominican
Republic. The terrain of Hispaniola is likely to disrupt Fiona's
circulation, but the global models suggest that Fiona shouldn't
have much trouble reorganizing itself once over the far
southwestern Atlantic, and the NHC forecast now calls for the
cyclone to become a hurricane by the end of the 5-day forecast
period. This prediction is slightly below the IVCN and HCCA
consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the Leeward Islands
within the warning area starting this afternoon, and will spread
westward across the U.S. Virgin Islands on Saturday and Puerto
Rico late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions
are possible over Dominica tonight and in the British Virgin
Islands on Saturday.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will reach the Leeward Islands by this
evening, spreading to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico Saturday, reaching the Dominican Republic Sunday, and the Turks
and Caicos Monday night or Tuesday. This rainfall may produce
considerable flood impacts including flash and urban flooding, along
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

3. Fiona is expected to strengthen gradually over the northeastern
Caribbean Sea, and it could be near hurricane strength as it
approaches the southern coast of the Dominican Republic Sunday
night and early Monday. Watches could be required for portions of
the Dominican Republic later today.

4. Fiona is forecast to strengthen after moving across Hispaniola
early next week, and interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas should continue to monitor forecasts for the
storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 16.0N 59.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 16.2N 61.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 16.6N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 17.0N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 17.3N 67.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 17.8N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 18.5N 69.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...S COAST OF DOM. REP.
96H 20/1200Z 20.5N 71.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 21/1200Z 22.5N 72.4W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 161448
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
1500 UTC FRI SEP 16 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. MARTIN
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 59.4W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 120SE 90SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 59.4W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 58.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.2N 61.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.6N 63.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.0N 65.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.3N 67.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.8N 68.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.5N 69.6W...SOUTH COAST OF DOM. REPUB.
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 20.5N 71.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 22.5N 72.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 59.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 16/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 161448
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 16 2022

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 59.4W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 59.4 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Sunday,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and northwest Sunday
and Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona is
expected to move across the Leeward Islands tonight, near or just
south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Saturday into Sunday,
and approach the southern coast of the Dominican Republic Sunday
night and early Monday.

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the
next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of
the Leeward Islands within the warning area beginning this afternoon
and will spread westward to the U.S. Virgin Islands on Saturday and
across Puerto Rico late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical
storm conditions are possible on Dominica this evening or tonight
and across the British Virgin Islands on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall
totals:

Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands: 3 to 6 inches.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches

Puerto Rico: 4 to 8 inches with maximum totals of 12 inches,
particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Eastern Dominican Republic: 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 16
inches possible

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches

These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly southern and
eastern Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic.

STORM SURGE: Localized coastal flooding will be possible along the
coasts of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in areas of
onshore winds Saturday into Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward and
northern Windward Islands, and are expected to spread westward to
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. Swells will then reach the
northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas over the weekend. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 161148
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 AM AST Fri Sep 16 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 58.8W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches or warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 15.8 North, longitude 58.8 West. Fiona is moving toward the
west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward motion with a gradual
decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday night or
early Sunday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest later on
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona is expected to
move across the Leeward Islands tonight and early Saturday, and move
near or just south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late
Saturday into Sunday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of
the northern Leeward Islands within the warning area beginning late
this afternoon or this evening. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area across the Virgin Islands on Saturday
and in Puerto Rico late Saturday or Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall
totals:

Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands: 3 to 6 inches.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches

Puerto Rico: 4 to 8 inches with maximum totals of 12 inches,
particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

Eastern Dominican Republic: 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 16
inches possible

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches

These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly southern and
eastern Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic.

STORM SURGE: Localized coastal flooding will be possible along the
coasts of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in areas of
onshore winds Saturday into Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
and are expected to spread westward to the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico today and Saturday. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 161058
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Fiona Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
700 AM AST Fri Sep 16 2022

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Dominica.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 160858
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM AST Fri Sep 16 2022

Fiona remains a sheared tropical cyclone this morning. The center of
the storm is fully exposed to the west of a large area of deep
convection over much of the eastern portion of the circulation. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that investigated Fiona
found peak 925 mb flight-level winds of 60 kt, which would support a
surface wind of about 45 kt using a standard reduction factor.
Meanwhile, the SFMR data only supported surface winds of 35-40 kt.
Earlier scatterometer data showed an area of winds slightly above 40
kt in the northeastern quadrant of the storm. Based on these data,
the initial intensity is set at 45 kt for this advisory.

The latest aircraft fixes indicate that Fiona is still moving south
of due west, and its initial motion is estimated to be 260/13 kt.
The models agree that Fiona should move generally westward over the
next couple of days, to the south of the subtropical ridge across
the central and western Atlantic. This brings the center of the
storm across the Leeward Islands tonight and near the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico on Saturday through early Sunday. Then, a turn
toward the west-northwest and northwest is forecast as the storm
reaches a weakness in the steering ridge. This would bring the
center of Fiona near or over Hispaniola on Monday and then into the
southwestern Atlantic by days 4-5. The NHC track forecast has once
again been adjusted slightly south of the previous one in the near
term, but generally lies near the center of the guidance envelope on
days 3-5.

Some short-term intensity fluctuations are possible given the
sheared, asymmetric structure of the storm. However, there are some
indications that the environmental conditions could become more
conducive for strengthening as the storm moves into the eastern
Caribbean this weekend. In particular, increasing upper-level
divergence and mid-level moisture along with decreasing vertical
wind shear could allow Fiona to become better organized before it
reaches Hispaniola. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows a bit
more strengthening through 72 h, but still lies slightly below the
guidance consensus. From there, the intensity forecast is of lower
confidence as the extent of land interaction is still uncertain.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Leeward Islands
within the warning area by this evening. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area across the Virgin Islands
beginning on Saturday, and then reaching Puerto Rico late Saturday
and Saturday night.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will reach the Leeward Islands by this
evening, spreading to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico Saturday, reaching the Dominican Republic Sunday, and the Turks
and Caicos Monday night or Tuesday. This rainfall may produce
considerable flood impacts including flash and urban flooding, along
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

3. Fiona is expected to move near Hispaniola early next week, and
watches could be required for parts of the island later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 15.7N 58.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 15.9N 60.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 16.3N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 16.7N 64.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 17.0N 66.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 17.3N 67.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 18.1N 69.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 20.0N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 22.0N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 160857
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM AST Fri Sep 16 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 58.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches or warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 58.1 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward motion with
a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday
night or early Sunday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest
later on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona is
expected to move across the Leeward Islands tonight and early
Saturday, and move near or just south of the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico late Saturday into Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of
the northern Leeward Islands within the warning area beginning
this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area across the Virgin Islands on Saturday and in Puerto Rico
late Saturday or Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall
totals:

Leeward Islands: 3 to 6 inches.

British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico: 4 to 6 inches with
local maximum totals of 10 inches, particularly across eastern and
southern Puerto Rico.

Eastern Dominican Republic and Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches with
local maximum totals of 15 inches, particularly in terrain.

These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly southern Puerto
Rico and eastern Dominican Republic.

STORM SURGE: Localized coastal flooding will be possible along the
coasts of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in areas of
onshore winds Saturday into Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
and are expected to spread westward to the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico today and Saturday. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 160857
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
0900 UTC FRI SEP 16 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. MARTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 58.1W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 90SE 60SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 58.1W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 57.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.9N 60.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.3N 62.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.7N 64.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.0N 66.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.3N 67.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.1N 69.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 22.0N 72.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 58.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 16/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 160551
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 AM AST Fri Sep 16 2022

...FIONA MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THERE THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 57.5W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches or warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 57.5 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward motion with
a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday
night, with a turn toward the west-northwest possible on Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Fiona is expected to move across
the Leeward Islands tonight and early Saturday, and move near the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Saturday into Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of
the northern Leeward Islands within the warning area beginning
this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area across the Virgin Islands on Saturday and in Puerto Rico
late Saturday or Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Fiona is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals:

Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico: 4 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches
across eastern Puerto Rico.

Eastern Hispaniola: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of
12 inches.

These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with
isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Considerable flood
impacts are possible across eastern portions of Puerto Rico.

STORM SURGE: Localized coastal flooding will be possible along the
coasts of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in areas of
onshore winds Saturday into Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
and are expected to spread westward to the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico today and Saturday. These conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 160239
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 15 2022

Although Fiona remains a strongly sheared tropical storm, deep
convection has been inching closer to the center of circulation
during the past several hours. Cloud tops remain quite cold on the
system's east side. The initial intensity is held at 50 kt based on
the earlier aircraft data. Another Air Force reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate Fiona overnight.

Satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that Fiona has been slowly
losing latitude over the past 24 hours or so, and the initial motion
is estimated to be 265/13 kt. A low- to mid-level subtropical ridge
to the north of Fiona should steer the system generally westward for
the next few days, taking the storm across the northern Leeward
Islands Friday night and near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on
Saturday through early Sunday. A turn to the west-northwest and
then the northwest near Hispaniola seems likely late this weekend
and into early next week as the system nears a weakness in the
subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted
to the left this cycle, based on the initial position and trending
toward the latest model guidance.

Fiona has been quite resilient even though it continues to be
affected by westerly vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air.
The models suggest that the upper-level wind pattern could become a
little more conducive for strengthening during the next couple of
days, which might allow the storm to become more symmetric and
strengthen slightly. However, after that time, the intensity of
Fiona will become highly dependent on how much the storm interacts
with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Since there is uncertainty on the
details of the exact track, the NHC intensity forecast during the
days 2-5 time frame is uncertain. This prediction lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope at most forecast times.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Leeward Islands
within the warning area by Friday evening. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area across the Virgin
Islands beginning on Saturday, and then reaching Puerto Rico late
Saturday and Saturday night.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will reach the Leeward Islands Friday
afternoon, spreading to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico Saturday into Sunday morning, and reaching eastern
Hispaniola Sunday. This rainfall may produce considerable flood
impacts including flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in
areas of higher terrain.

3. Fiona is expected to move near Hispaniola early next week, and
watches could be required for parts of the island on Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 16.0N 56.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 16.2N 58.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 16.5N 61.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 16.8N 63.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 17.1N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 17.3N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 17.8N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 19.5N 70.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 21/0000Z 21.5N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 160238
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 15 2022

...FIONA MOVING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THERE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 56.9W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches or warnings will likely be required tonight or
on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 56.9 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday
night, with a turn toward the west-northwest possible on Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Fiona is expected to move across
the Leeward Islands Friday night and early Saturday, and move near
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Saturday into Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of
the northern Leeward Islands within the warning area beginning
Friday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area across the Virgin Islands on Saturday and in Puerto Rico
late Saturday or Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Fiona is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals:

Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico: 4 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10
inches across eastern Puerto Rico.

Eastern Hispaniola: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of
12 inches.

These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with
isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Considerable flood
impacts are possible across eastern portions of Puerto Rico.

STORM SURGE: Localized coastal flooding will be possible along the
coasts of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in areas of
onshore winds Saturday into Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
and are expected to spread westward to the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico on Friday and Saturday. These conditions could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 160238
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
0300 UTC FRI SEP 16 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. MARTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR
ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 56.9W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 30SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 56.9W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 56.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.2N 58.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.5N 61.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.8N 63.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.1N 65.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.3N 67.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.8N 68.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 19.5N 70.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 21.5N 72.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 56.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 16/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 152332
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 PM AST Thu Sep 15 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 56.1W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches or warnings will likely be required tonight or
on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 56.1 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday
night, with a turn toward the west-northwest possible on Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Fiona is expected to move across
the Leeward Islands Friday night and early Saturday, and move near
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Saturday into Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of
the northern Leeward Islands within the warning area beginning
Friday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area across the Virgin Islands on Saturday and in Puerto Rico
late Saturday or Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Fiona is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals:

Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico: 4 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10
inches across eastern Puerto Rico.

Eastern Hispaniola: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of
12 inches.

These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with
isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Considerable flood
impacts are possible across eastern portions of Puerto Rico.

STORM SURGE: Localized coastal flooding will be possible along the
coasts of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in areas of
onshore winds Saturday into Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
and are expected to spread westward to the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico on Friday and Saturday. These conditions could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 152049
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Thu Sep 15 2022

Deep convection has been sheared more than a degree to the east of
the center for much of the day, and as a result, the low-level
center and circulation have become slightly less defined and
elongated, respectively. That said, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft measured a peak 925-mb flight-level wind of 65 kt
and SFMR winds as high as 46 kt. Assuming some undersampling of
the surface winds, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt. This is
in agreement with ASCAT-C data from earlier today, which showed an
area of 45-50 kt winds to the northeast of the center.

Fiona appears to have lost a little bit of latitude since earlier
this morning, but the motion remains westward, or 270 degrees at 12
kt. Track models are in good agreement during the next 2 to 3
days, showing a low- to mid-level ridge steering Fiona westward
across the Leeward Islands and over the far northeastern Caribbean
Sea through Sunday. The HWRF is the only outlier during this
period and appears to have a track too far to the north due to an
unrealistically high intensity. After day 3, there is more
divergence among the track models, with the stronger solutions
(i.e., the GFS) indicating a sharper northwestward turn toward a
weakness in the subtropical ridge. The weaker solutions (i.e., the
ECMWF and HMON) keep Fiona on a westward or west-northwestward
track, moving near or over Hispaniola. As a result, the 4- and
5-day forecasts are of lower-than-normal confidence, and ensembles
from the main global models suggest that the cyclone could end up
anywhere from eastern Cuba to well to the northeast of the
Bahamas by the end of the forecast period. For now, the official
track forecast is nudged southward and westward from the previous
forecast, accounting for the adjusted initial position and the
overall trend in the track guidance.

Moderate, and even possibly strong, westerly shear is likely to
continue for much of the 5-day forecast period. Given these
conditions, the NHC intensity forecast flatlines Fiona's intensity
at 50 kt for the next 60 hours, with the caveat that fluctuations
are possible related to the convective structure of the cyclone at
any time. Fiona is forecast to slow down by the 3-5 day time
frame, and the slower motion could allow for the circulation to
become more vertically stacked, even in the face of continued
shear. As a result, some gradual strengthening is indicated at the
latter part of the forecast period. Given uncertainties in how
much Fiona might interact with the islands of the Greater Antilles,
the NHC intensity forecast lies about 5-10 kt below the IVCN and
HCCA consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Leeward Islands
within the warning area by Friday evening. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area across the Virgin
Islands beginning on Saturday, and then reaching Puerto Rico late
Saturday and Saturday night.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will reach the northern Leeward Islands
Friday afternoon, spreading to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico Saturday into Sunday morning, and reaching eastern
Hispaniola Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban
flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
Considerable flood impacts are possible across eastern portions of
Puerto Rico.

3. Fiona is expected to move near Hispaniola early next week, and
watches could be required for parts of the island on Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 16.3N 55.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 16.3N 57.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 16.5N 59.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 16.8N 62.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 17.1N 64.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 17.3N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 17.7N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 19.3N 69.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 21.4N 71.1W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 152048
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Thu Sep 15 2022

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 55.4W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watches
for Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin to Tropical Storm
Warnings.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra.

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches or warnings will likely be required tonight or
on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 55.4 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday
night, with a turn toward the west-northwest possible on Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Fiona is expected to move across
the Leeward Islands Friday night and early Saturday, and move near
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Saturday into Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance
aircraft is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of
the northern Leeward Islands within the warning area beginning
Friday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area across the Virgin Islands on Saturday, and reaching
Puerto Rico late Saturday or Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Fiona is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals:

Northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico: 4 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10
inches across eastern Puerto Rico.

Eastern Hispaniola: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of
12 inches.

These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with
isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Considerable flood
impacts are possible across eastern portions of Puerto Rico.

STORM SURGE: Localized coastal flooding will be possible along the
coasts of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in areas of
onshore winds Saturday into Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are beginning to affect the Leeward
Islands and will spread westward to the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico on Friday and Saturday. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 152047
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
2100 UTC THU SEP 15 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
FOR GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. MARTIN TO TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR
ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 55.4W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 55.4W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 54.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.3N 57.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.5N 59.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.8N 62.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.1N 64.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.3N 65.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.7N 67.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 19.3N 69.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 21.4N 71.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 55.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 16/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 151734
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 PM AST Thu Sep 15 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE
FIONA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 54.8W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
Hispaniola should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings will likely be required for portions of these
areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 54.8 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected through late
Saturday, with a turn toward the west-northwest possible on
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona is expected to
move across the Leeward Islands Friday night and early Saturday, and
move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Saturday into
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of
the northern Leeward Islands within the warning area beginning
Friday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible across
portions of the northern Leeward Islands within the watch area by
Friday night.

RAINFALL: Fiona is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals:

Northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico: 4 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10
inches across eastern Puerto Rico.

Eastern Hispaniola: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of
12 inches.

These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with
isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are expected to begin affecting the
Leeward Islands later today, spreading westward to the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday and Saturday. These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 151451
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 15 2022

Moderate westerly shear continues to displace Fiona's deep
convection about a degree to the east of the low-level center, with
convective cloud tops as cold as about -80 degrees Celsius.
A recent ASCAT pass showed a solid area of 40- to 45-kt winds, and
with the scatterometer's known undersampling characteristics, it's
not out of the question that Fiona's intensity could be a little
higher. For now, the initial intensity will be held at 45 kt,
pending additional data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft that is scheduled to investigate the storm this afternoon.

Moderate shear, generally out of the west, is expected to continue
for much of the forecast period. That in itself should suppress
significant strengthening, but it may not be enough to prevent any
strengthening at all. Fiona's current intensity is a testament to
its resilience in the face of the shear it has experienced over the
past 24 hours. There has been a general uptick in the intensity
guidance after 48 hours, and the new NHC intensity forecast has
been nudged upward during that time. It is important to note,
however, that the official forecast still lies below the IVCN,
HCCA, and FSSE consensus aids from day 3 onward, and additional
adjustments to the intensity forecast could be required in
subsequent advisories if these trends continue.

Strong low- to mid-level ridging over the western Atlantic is
steering Fiona due west, or 270 degrees at 12 kt, and this general
motion, with some gradual decrease in forward speed, is likely to
continue for the next couple of days. There is notable model
divergence after 36 hours, with the stronger GFS, HWRF, and HMON
solutions turning a slower Fiona northwestward over the northern
Leeward and Virgin Islands. On the other hand, the ECWMF, UKMET,
and all of the consensus aids maintain a faster westward to
west-northwestward motion across the far northeastern Caribbean Sea
through day 3. Given the expectation that moderate shear is likely
to continue, the NHC track forecast favors the less-intense
scenarios and shows a solution moving just south of the Virgin
Islands and then near Puerto Rico in a few days. After day
3, a weakness near the western extent of the ridge should allow
Fiona to gain some latitude and possibly turn toward the northwest,
moving across the Greater Antilles into the far southwestern
Atlantic. On the whole, the NHC track forecast remains steady from
previous predictions, largely following a blend of the TVCN and HCCA
consensus aids.

Additional watches or warnings will likely be required later today
for portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin
Islands, and interests in these locations should monitor the latest
forecast updates.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Leeward Islands within the warning area by Friday evening.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Leeward
Islands within the watch area by Friday night.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will reach the northern Leeward Islands
Friday afternoon, spreading to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico Saturday into Sunday morning, and reaching eastern
Hispaniola Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban
flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

3. Fiona is expected to move near the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and Hispaniola this weekend and early next week, and watches will
likely be issued for some of those areas later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 16.6N 54.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 16.6N 56.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 16.7N 58.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 16.9N 61.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 17.2N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 17.5N 65.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 17.8N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 19.3N 68.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 21.5N 70.4W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 151450
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 15 2022

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 54.3W
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and
Anguilla.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.

The government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for St. Maarten.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
Hispaniola should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings will likely be required for portions of these
areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 54.3 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected to continue through
late Saturday, with a turn toward the west-northwest possible on
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona is expected to
move across the Leeward Islands Friday night and early Saturday,
and move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Saturday into
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is possible during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of
the northern Leeward Islands within the warning area beginning
Friday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible across
portions of the northern Leeward Islands within the watch area by
Friday night.

RAINFALL: Fiona is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals:

Northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico: 4 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10
inches across eastern Puerto Rico.

Eastern Hispaniola: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of
12 inches.

These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with
isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are expected to begin affecting the
Leeward Islands later today, spreading westward to the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday and Saturday. These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 151450
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
1500 UTC THU SEP 15 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND
ANGUILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. MAARTEN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. MARTIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. MARTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE
AREAS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 54.3W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 54.3W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 53.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.6N 56.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.7N 58.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.9N 61.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.2N 63.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.5N 65.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.8N 66.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 19.3N 68.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 21.5N 70.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 54.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 15/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 151136
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 AM AST Thu Sep 15 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 53.6W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of
this system. Additional tropical storm watches or warnings will
likely be required for portions of these areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 53.6 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next several days. On the
forecast track, the center of Fiona is forecast to move through the
Leeward Islands late Friday and Friday night, and move near the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, where a Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect.

RAINFALL: Fiona is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts across the northern
Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
and eastern Hispaniola. These rains may produce flash and urban
flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are expected to begin affecting the
northern Leeward Islands by early Friday. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 150856
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM AST Thu Sep 15 2022

The satellite presentation of Fiona has not changed much overnight.
The low-level center of the storm is still displaced to the west of
a deep convective mass with very cold infrared cloud tops. Earlier
scatterometer data showed a broad area of tropical-storm-force winds
over the eastern portion of the circulation, with reliable peak
winds in the 40-45 kt range. Therefore, the initial intensity is
held at 45 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate Fiona later today.

Fiona is moving westward at 270/11 kt. The cyclone is expected to
generally maintain a westward heading for the next few days as it is
steered by the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. However,
there are still significant along-track differences among some of
the model solutions, with the GFS and ECMWF almost 250 n mi apart at
72 h. The latest NHC track forecast lies slightly south of the
previous one and is a bit slower through the first 72 h, remaining
closer to the latest GFEX and HCCA aids. This track brings Fiona
across the northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, near the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend, and near Hispaniola early next
week. From there, the deterministic guidance and most GFS and ECMWF
ensemble members agree that Fiona should turn northwestward by days
4-5 as a weakness develops in the steering ridge over the western
Atlantic. The stronger GFS and HWRF runs show a sharper recurvature
than the rest of the guidance, but the NHC forecast shows a more
gradual turn generally in line with the HCCA aid.

The sheared, asymmetric structure of Fiona does not appear conducive
for much strengthening in the near term. In fact, the SHIPS guidance
suggests that moderate to strong westerly to northwesterly shear
will persist for the next several days over Fiona. This, combined
with some drier mid-level air to the west of the storm, could make
it difficult for Fiona's inner-core structure to become better
organized. The intensity forecast is also complicated by the
potential for land interaction as the storm moves near or over
portions of the Greater Antilles this weekend and early next week.
Given the less-than-ideal conditions, the official NHC intensity
forecast does not show much strengthening over the next several
days, and it lies slightly below the intensity consensus aids.

Additional tropical storm watches or warnings will likely be
required later today for portions of the northern Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands, and interests in these
locations should monitor the latest forecast updates.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, where a Tropical Storm
Watch has been issued.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will reach the northern Leeward Islands
Friday afternoon, spreading to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico Saturday into Sunday morning, and reaching eastern
Hispaniola Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban
flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

3. Fiona is expected to move near the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and Hispaniola this weekend and early next week, and Tropical Storm
Watches will likely be issued for some of those areas later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 16.6N 53.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 16.7N 54.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 16.8N 57.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 17.0N 59.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 17.2N 62.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 17.4N 64.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 17.7N 66.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 18.8N 68.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 21.0N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 150855
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM AST Thu Sep 15 2022

...FIONA MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 53.0W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of
this system. Additional tropical storm watches or warnings will
likely be required for portions of these areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 53.0 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next several days. On the
forecast track, the center of Fiona is forecast to move through the
Leeward Islands late Friday and Friday night, and move near the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, where a Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect.

RAINFALL: Fiona is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts across the northern
Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
and eastern Hispaniola. These rains may produce flash and urban
flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are expected to begin affecting the
northern Leeward Islands by early Friday. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 150855
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
0900 UTC THU SEP 15 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 53.0W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 53.0W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 52.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.7N 54.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.8N 57.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.0N 59.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.2N 62.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.4N 64.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.7N 66.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 18.8N 68.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 21.0N 70.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 53.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 15/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 150544
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 AM AST Thu Sep 15 2022

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 52.4W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of
this system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will
likely be required for portions of these areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 52.4 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (23 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of the storm is forecast to move
through the Leeward Islands late Friday and Friday night, and be
near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is possible during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, where a Tropical Storm
Watch has been issued.

RAINFALL: Fiona is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches across the northern
Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
and eastern Hispaniola. These rains may produce isolated flash and
urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are expected to begin affecting the
northern Leeward Islands on Friday. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 150241
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 14 2022

Although the system still appears ragged-looking in satellite
images, a very recent ASCAT-B pass indicated that the tropical
cyclone has strengthened. Maximum winds in the pass were around 45
kt and therefore, the initial intensity has been increased to that
value. It should be noted that Fiona is an asymmetric storm with all
of its thunderstorms and strong winds currently located on the
system's east side. The lopsided structure is due to moderate
west-southwesterly vertical wind shear.

Fiona continues to move westward at 12 kt. The steering pattern
seems relatively straightforward. A low- to mid-level subtropical
ridge situated over the central Atlantic should steer the system
westward to west-northwestward during the next several days, taking
the cyclone across the northern Leeward Islands by Friday night,
near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and near
Hispaniola on Sunday and Monday. There will likely be a turn to the
northwest by the end of the period when the system reaches the
western periphery of the ridge. The models all show a similar
theme, but there are notable speed differences with the ECMWF model
faster than the remainder of the guidance. The NHC track forecast
is quite similar to the previous one and near a consensus of the GFS
and ECMWF models.

Given the current tilted and asymmetric structure, continued
influences of shear, and some dry air, any strengthening of the
storm will likely be slow to occur during the next day or so.
However, some of the models show Fiona moving into a less hostile
environment in a couple of days, and it could have an opportunity to
become a little stronger this weekend if it avoids the landmasses of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Given the uncertainty of the system's
future environment and potential land interaction, little change in
strength is shown through most of the period. However, it should be
noted that the intensity forecast is of low confidence given those
complexities.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, where a Tropical Storm
Watch has been issued.

2. Heavy rains will begin to affect the northern Leeward Islands
late Friday, spreading into the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico over the weekend. This rainfall may produce isolated
flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of
higher terrain.

3. Fiona is expected to move near the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and Hispaniola this weekend and early next week, and Tropical Storm
Watches will likely be issued for some of those areas on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 16.7N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 16.9N 53.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 17.1N 56.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 17.2N 58.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 17.3N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 17.6N 63.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 17.8N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 18.7N 68.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 20/0000Z 20.5N 70.6W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 150240
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
0300 UTC THU SEP 15 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ST. MAARTEN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM...AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS
WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 52.0W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 30SE 0SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 52.0W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 51.3W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.9N 53.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.1N 56.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.2N 58.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 61.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.6N 63.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.8N 65.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 18.7N 68.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 20.5N 70.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 52.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 15/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 150241
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 14 2022

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 52.0W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Saba and St. Eustatius.

The government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Maarten.

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of
this system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will
be required for portions of those areas on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 52.0 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and
this general motion is expected to continue during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of the storm is forecast
to move through the Leeward Islands late Friday and Friday night,
and be near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow
strengthening is possible during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, where a Tropical Storm
Watch has been issued.

RAINFALL: Fiona is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches across the northern
Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
and eastern Hispaniola. These rains may produce isolated flash and
urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are expected to begin affecting the
northern Leeward Islands on Friday. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 150145
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Fiona Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
945 PM AST Wed Sep 14 2022

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Satellite data indicate that the depression has strengthened to a
tropical storm with maximum winds estimated to be near 50 mph (85
km/h). This will be incoporated in the next advisory that will be
released before 11 pm AST (0300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 945 PM AST...0150 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 52.0W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 142040
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
2100 UTC WED SEP 14 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 50.5W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 50.5W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 50.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.9N 52.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.0N 54.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.1N 57.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.1N 59.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.3N 62.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.6N 64.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 18.4N 68.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 20.0N 70.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 50.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 142041
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Wed Sep 14 2022

Deep convection has continued to burst near and to the east of the
center of the depression this afternoon, but overall there has been
no significant change in the system's organization. An ASCAT-C
scatterometer overpass that arrived just after the release of the
previous advisory revealed some believable 30-kt vectors within the
eastern portion of the primary convective mass. Although the system
continues to be affected by moderate westerly shear, it is likely
not far from tropical storm strength. The initial intensity is held
at 30 kt, and is based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB.

Arc clouds have been propagating away from the convection today,
indicating that the system is located within a relatively dry mid-
level environment. Since both the shear and dry air are likely to
persist during the next few days, only modest strengthening is
indicated in the official forecast. One change in the latest global
model guidance is that most now maintain the system as a tropical
cyclone into the eastern Caribbean, much like was shown in the
previous NHC advisory. The latest NHC intensity forecast is
unchanged from before, and calls for the depression to become a
tropical storm tonight or Thursday. Little change in intensity is
shown after that time due to environmental uncertainties and the
potential interaction with land, and the official forecast lies
near the statistical models (SHIPS and LGEM).

The longer-term motion of the depression is generally west at about
11 kt. There is no change to the early portion of the track
forecast reasoning. The depression is expected to be steered
slightly north of due west along the southern side of a low- to
mid-level ridge over the central and western Atlantic during the
next few days. There is very little cross-track spread in the
guidance during that time, but there is considerable along-track
differences with the ECWMF much faster than the remainder of the
guidance. The NHC official forecast is again closer to the HFIP
corrected consensus and GFS ensemble mean, but it is slightly slower
than the previous track through day 3. At days 4 and 5, there has
been a change in the guidance since most of the models depict a
stronger and more vertically deep cyclone by the end of period. This
has resulted in a more poleward track toward the end of the forecast
period, and the NHC track has been adjusted in the direction. There
is still considerable uncertainty in the longer range portion of the
forecast as there is a bifurcation in the ensemble guidance that is
related to the system's intensity at the longer range. Ensemble
members that keep the system weak generally show a faster and
farther south track, than the official forecast.

Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to move through the Leeward Islands
late Friday or Friday night, and near the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, and Hispaniola this weekend and early next week. Tropical
storm watches will likely be required for portions of the Leeward
Islands this evening or overnight, and for the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico on Thursday.

2. Heavy rains from the depression will begin to affect the
northern Leeward Islands late Friday, spreading into the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend. This
rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with
isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 16.8N 50.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 16.9N 52.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 17.0N 54.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 17.1N 57.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 17.1N 59.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 17.3N 62.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 17.6N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 18.4N 68.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 20.0N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 142040
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Wed Sep 14 2022

...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 50.5W
ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm
watches will likely be required for portions of the Leeward Islands
this evening or overnight.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 50.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast
to move through the Leeward Islands late Friday and Friday night,
and be near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so,
and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight
or Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches
across the northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S.Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico. These rains may produce isolated flash
and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 141500
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 14 2022

Visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation associated
with the area of low pressure in the tropical Atlantic has become
better defined. The associated convection has persisted overnight
and this morning, and although it is confined to the eastern
portion of the circulation it has enough organization to classify
the system as a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set
at 30 kt, which is a little above the latest TAFB Dvorak
classification of T1.5, but in line with overnight scatterometer
data.

Moderate westerly shear and a dry mid-level atmosphere are expected
to prevent significant intensification, but some modest
strengthening is possible over the next day or two, and the NHC
forecast calls for the depression to become a tropical storm tonight
or Thursday. After the system moves into the eastern Caribbean, the
westerly shear is forecast to increase somewhat and the global
models suggest that the system could struggle to maintain its
closed circulation after that time. The NHC intensity forecast is
a little above the IVCN intensity forecast, and maintains the
system as a tropical cyclone through the forecast period. Weakening
is indicated by day 5 when the system is forecast to interact with
Hispaniola.

The depression is moving westward or 280/12 kt. The cyclone is
forecast to move slightly north of due westward along the south
side of a low to mid-level ridge that is anchored over the central
and western Atlantic. Although the track guidance is tightly
clustered, there are some differences in forward speed with the
ECMWF much faster than the GFS. The NHC forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope and is near the TVCA and GFEX
consensus aids to account for the differences in the forward speed.

Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to move through the Leeward Islands on
Friday or Friday night, bringing heavy rainfall and possible wind
impacts. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of the depression as tropical storm watches could be
required for some islands later today.

2. The system could move near or over portions of the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola this weekend and early next
week, potentially bringing heavy rainfall and some wind impacts to
these areas, and interests there should monitor the progress of the
depression.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 16.6N 49.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 16.7N 51.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 16.8N 53.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 16.9N 56.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 17.0N 59.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 17.1N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 17.4N 64.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 18.0N 68.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 19.1N 71.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 141459
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 14 2022

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 49.6W
ABOUT 805 MI...1300 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm
Watches may be required for portions of the Leeward Islands later
today.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 49.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast
to move through the Leeward Islands on Friday or Friday night, and
be near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so,
and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight
or Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 141458
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
1500 UTC WED SEP 14 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER
TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 49.6W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 49.6W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 49.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.7N 51.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.8N 53.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.9N 56.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.0N 59.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.1N 62.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.4N 64.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 18.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 19.1N 71.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 49.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>