Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ALEX-22
in Bermuda, Bahamas, United States, Cuba, Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.





Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 062033
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
500 PM AST Mon Jun 06 2022

Alex has not produced any deep convection near its center since last
night. It's surface circulation has also become elongated and
ill-defined. Based on these factors, Alex is now classified as
post-tropical and this will be the last advisory. The initial
intensity is set at 50 kt, assuming a little weakening has occurred
since this morning, though this is uncertain due to a lack of recent
ASCAT or surface observations.

Alex is moving quickly toward the east-northeast. Another
non-tropical low or trough is forecast to develop to the northeast
of Alex tonight. While there is quite a bit of variability in the
details, all global models forecast that Alex and the other low
will merge within the next 24 h or so, so the NHC forecast now
shows dissipation at that time. The baroclinic system that results
from that merger is expected to strengthen and could produce
hurricane-force winds over the north Atlantic by midweek. For more
information, please see forecasts from the National Weather Service
Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header
FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 35.5N 60.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 07/0600Z 37.6N 55.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 062032
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
500 PM AST Mon Jun 06 2022

...ALEX BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 60.6W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex
was located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 60.6 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving quickly toward the east-northeast
near 31 mph (50 km/h). Acceleration toward the east-northeast is
expected tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast tonight. Alex is forecast to
merge with another non-tropical low on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 062032
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012022
2100 UTC MON JUN 06 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 60.6W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 27 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......170NE 170SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 270SE 360SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 60.6W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 62.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 37.6N 55.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 220SE 170SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.5N 60.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 061740 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 16A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
200 PM AST Mon Jun 06 2022

Corrected wind speed in summary

...ALEX LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 62.2W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 62.2 West. Alex is
moving toward the east-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue into Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast, and Alex is
expected to become an extratropical low later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Winds at Bermuda will continue to subside over the
next few hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 061730
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
200 PM AST Mon Jun 06 2022

...ALEX LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 62.2W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 62.2 West. Alex is
moving toward the east-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue into Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast, and Alex is
expected to become an extratropical low later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Winds at Bermuda will continue to subside over the
next few hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 061609

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 06.06.2022

TROPICAL STORM ALEX ANALYSED POSITION : 33.6N 65.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.06.2022 0 33.6N 65.2W 993 42
0000UTC 07.06.2022 12 36.2N 58.6W 994 43
1200UTC 07.06.2022 24 41.0N 50.3W 980 54
0000UTC 08.06.2022 36 43.3N 44.3W 975 58
1200UTC 08.06.2022 48 47.4N 35.6W 978 45
0000UTC 09.06.2022 60 51.6N 29.7W 975 44
1200UTC 09.06.2022 72 52.0N 25.8W 973 46
0000UTC 10.06.2022 84 POST-TROPICAL


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 061609

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 061609

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 06.06.2022

TROPICAL STORM ALEX ANALYSED POSITION : 33.6N 65.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.06.2022 33.6N 65.2W MODERATE
00UTC 07.06.2022 36.2N 58.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.06.2022 41.0N 50.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 08.06.2022 43.3N 44.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.06.2022 47.4N 35.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.06.2022 51.6N 29.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.06.2022 52.0N 25.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.06.2022 POST-TROPICAL


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 061609

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 061449
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
1100 AM AST Mon Jun 06 2022

Alex continues to lack deep convection anywhere near its core,
with the majority of the heavy showers and thunderstorms displaced
nearly 200 n mi to the northeast of the center due to the
persistently strong shear. Observations from an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the 700 mb center of
the vortex is tilted some 30 n mi northeast of the low-level
center, likely as a result of the shear. Based on a blend of
flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from the aircraft, the
intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. Given the
lack of central convection and continued shear, some weakening
and continued loss of tropical characteristics are likely today.
However, the cyclone will probably maintain some of its intensity
for the next day or so due to baroclinic processes. In 36 hours or
so, the global models depict The post-tropical low merging with an
extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic, so the official
forecast shows the system as dissipated by 48 hours.

The storm continues to move rapidly toward the east-northeast, or
around 065/25 kt. Alex should remain embedded in the southern
portion of the mid-latitude westerlies and continue this general
motion for the next day or two. The official forecast is close
to both the simple and corrected dynamical consensus track
forecasts, TVCN and HCCA respectively, and is also similar to the
previous NHC prediction.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue on the island
of Bermuda for the next several hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 34.0N 63.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 35.5N 59.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 07/1200Z 38.3N 52.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 08/0000Z 41.0N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 061448
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
1100 AM AST Mon Jun 06 2022

...ALEX BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 63.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 63.8 West. Alex is
moving toward the east-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue into Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast, and Alex is expected to become
an extratropical low later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. During the past couple of hours, the Bermuda
Airport reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) with a gust to
56 mph (90 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue on Bermuda
for the next several hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 061448
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012022
1500 UTC MON JUN 06 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 63.8W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......170NE 180SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 270SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 63.8W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 65.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 35.5N 59.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 200SE 120SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 38.3N 52.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 200SE 140SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 41.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 220SE 160SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 63.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 06/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 061150
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
800 AM AST Mon Jun 06 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT BERMUDA AS ALEX PASSES
NEARBY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 65.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 65.1 West. Alex is
moving toward the east-northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue until the storm is absorbed
tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Alex is expected to become an
extratropical low later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. The Bermuda Airport reported a sustained wind of
39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 59 mph (95 km/h) within the last
hour. A Bermuda Weather Service buoy at Crescent Reef, just north
of Bermuda, recently reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h)
with a gust to 72 mph (116 km/h). An automated station at the
Bermuda Heliport reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) and
a gust to 67 mph (108 km/h).

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a minimum central
pressure of 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue on Bermuda through
this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Alex is expected to bring 1 to 2 inches or
25 to 50 mm of rain across Bermuda through this afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 060855
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
500 AM AST Mon Jun 06 2022

Alex is looking increasingly less like a tropical cyclone and more
like a post-tropical entity. While the low-level circulation is
clearly evident on conventional satellite imagery, it is largely
devoid of deep central convection, with the nearest cold cloud tops
below -60C located more than 200 nm to the northeast. Those well
removed colder cloud tops are forming in response to a digging
mid-latitude trough that will ultimately lead to Alex's demise. In
the meantime, there was a convective band east of Alex that produced
tropical-storm-force winds over Bermuda this morning, and these
winds will likely continue until the center passes by to the north
later today. Earlier Air Force reconnaissance aircraft found flight
level winds that still supported an intensity of 60 kt at 0600 UTC.
However, assuming some weakening has occurred since then given
the current lack of convection near the center, the initial
intensity has been reduced to 55 kt for this advisory.

Alex is expected to continue moving over cooler waters in an
environment of increasing vertical wind shear and dry mid-latitude
air, and the cyclone is likely to become extratropical or a remnant
low later today. Beyond 36 hours, the GFS and ECMWF forecast an
upstream mid-latitude trough to spawn a new surface baroclinic
cyclone northeast of Alex, causing the former tropical cyclone to be
absorbed at the end of the forecast period. The current NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, though it
now moves up extratropical transition to later today.

Alex continues to move briskly to the east-northeast at 065/24 kt.
The cyclone should remain on this general heading over the next 36
hours or so before it is absorbed. Once again the forecast this
cycle is a bit faster than the previous one, blending the consensus
aids and an average between the operational GFS and ECMWF runs
(GFEX).

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Alex is forecast to pass near or just north of Bermuda today, and
tropical storm conditions are expected on the island through this
afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 33.5N 66.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 34.7N 62.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 07/0600Z 36.7N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 07/1800Z 39.5N 49.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 060854
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
500 AM AST Mon Jun 06 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AFFECTING BERMUDA AS ALEX CONTINUES
MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 66.7W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM NW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 66.7 West. Alex is
moving toward the east-northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue until the storm is absorbed tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast later today,
and Alex is also forecast to become an extratropical low later
today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. Recently, an elevated station in Bermuda reported
a sustained wind of 59 mph (94 km/h) gusting to 67 mph (107 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue on Bermuda through
this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Alex is expected to bring 1 to 2 inches or
25 to 50 mm of rain across Bermuda through this afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 060851
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012022
0900 UTC MON JUN 06 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 66.7W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 90SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT.......170NE 180SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 270SE 300SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 66.7W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 68.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 34.7N 62.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 36.7N 56.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 39.5N 49.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 200SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.5N 66.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 06/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 060549
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
200 AM AST Mon Jun 06 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN ON BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 68.1W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 68.1 West. Alex is
moving toward the east-northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h). A fast
motion toward the east-northeast is expected through tonight. On the
forecast track, the center of the tropical storm is expected to pass
near or just north of Bermuda later today.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Alex is forecast to begin weakening later today, and the
system is expected to become an extratropical low by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. Recently, an elevated station in Bermuda reported a
sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) gusting to 54 mph (87 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance aircraft
data is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue on Bermuda through
this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Alex is expected to bring 1 to 2 inches or
25 to 50 mm of rain across Bermuda through this afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 060246
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
1100 PM AST Sun Jun 05 2022

The satellite presentation of Alex has evolved from a more classic
sheared tropical cyclone this morning to that of an extratropical
transitioning cyclone. There are still some fragments of convection
near the center, but most of the shower and thunderstorm activity is
well removed from the center in a band around the eastern portion of
the circulation. This change in structure is due to an approaching
mid- to upper-level trough and associated dry air that has become
entrained into the circulation. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft
observations and data from NOAA buoy 41048 indicate that Alex is
slightly stronger. Reports from a center drop from the aircraft
showed that the pressure had fallen to around 984 mb, and the buoy
reported a peak one-minute wind of 52 kt at 4 meters. Based on
these data the initial intensity has been set at 60 kt. However,
the cyclone may already be beginning to fill as the latest
reconnaissance aircraft pass through the center reported that the
pressure had risen 4 mb.

Alex will be moving over cooler waters and into a higher shear
environment during the next 12-24 hours, therefore weakening should
commence very soon. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and
ECMWF suggest the system will struggle to redevelop deep convection
near the center and the system is now forecast to become
post-tropical by 24 hours, if not sooner. The global model guidance
now also indicates that the post-tropical cyclone will be absorbed
along a frontal boundary as a new baroclinic low develops from a
strong mid-latitude trough moving southeastward from Atlantic Canada
in a day or two. As a result, the new NHC forecast calls for
absorption within the new low within 48 hours.

Alex is moving 060/24 kt. The cyclone should remain on a general
east-northeastward motion during the next day or so, with the
center passing north of Bermuda on Monday. The new forecast is
again faster than the previous advisory and lies near a blend of
the GFS and ECMWF models.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Alex is forecast to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday,
and tropical storm conditions are expected on the island late
tonight and Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 32.5N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 33.7N 65.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 35.3N 60.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 07/1200Z 37.4N 54.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 060245
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
1100 PM AST Sun Jun 05 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ALEX A LITTLE
STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA LATER
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 69.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 69.0 West. Alex is
moving toward the east-northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h). A fast
motion toward the east-northeast is expected through Monday night.
On the forecast track, the center of the tropical storm is expected
to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
observations from NOAA Buoy 41048 indicate that the maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Alex is forecast to begin to weaken overnight, and the
system is expected to become an extratropical low by late Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. Earlier this evening NOAA buoy 41048 reported peak
sustained winds of 60 mph (96 km/h) and a wind gust of 69 mph (111
km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance aircraft
data is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on the island of
Bermuda beginning late tonight.

RAINFALL: Rainfall from Tropical Storm Alex is expected to
bring 1 to 2 inches or 25 to 50 mm of rain across Bermuda tonight
into Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 060245
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012022
0300 UTC MON JUN 06 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 69.0W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......160NE 180SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 270SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 69.0W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 70.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.7N 65.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 35.3N 60.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 37.4N 54.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 200SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 69.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 06/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 052353
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ALEX AS THE STORM
MOVES QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA STARTING LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 70.3W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 70.3 West. Alex is
moving toward the east-northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h). A fast
motion toward the east-northeast is expected through Monday,
followed by an eastward motion at a slower forward speed on Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of the tropical storm is expected
to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. After
that, Alex is forecast to weaken, and the system is expected to
become an extratropical low by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the east of the center. NOAA buoy 41048 has recently
reported sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a wind gust of
64 mph (104 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from data from NOAA buoy
41048 an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 988 mb
(29.18 inches). Buoy 41048 located just east of the center has
recently reported a pressure of 992 mb (29.28 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on the island of
Bermuda beginning late tonight or on Monday morning.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Alex is expected to
bring 1 to 2 inches or 25 to 50 mm of rain across Bermuda tonight
into Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 052039
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
500 PM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

Earlier this afternoon, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft reported reliable-looking SFMR winds of 50-55 kt near the
center of Alex, and 700-mb flight-level winds of up to 77 kt in the
southeastern quadrant. The central pressure was near 991 mb. Based
on these data, the initial intensity is set to 55 kt. While Alex
continues to generate a cluster of convection close to the center in
the northeastern quadrant, overall the cyclone looks a little less
tropical than it did this morning. This is likely due to
entrainment of upper-level cool/dry air from a trough just west of
the cyclone.

Alex has likely peaked in intensity, as the system is moving toward
cooler water and the divergent outflow caused by the aforementioned
upper-level trough is decreasing. Steady weakening is forecast
after 12 h, and Alex is now forecast to become extratropical by 36
hr as it merges with a frontal system. After that, most of the
numerical weather prediction models forecast the system to decay
quickly and weaken to a trough between 72-96 h, and the official
forecast follows this scenario. However, an alternative scenario
comes from the UKMET and the HMON, which show the cyclone becoming
a strong extratropical low that continues quickly northeastward
into the northeastern Atlantic.

The initial motion is now 060/24 kt. A general east-northeastward
motion is expected during the next 24 h or so, with the center of
Alex passing north of Bermuda on Monday. After that, the majority
of the dynamical models forecast Alex to turn eastward and slow its
forward speed as it finishes extratropical transition and becomes a
shallow and elongated vortex, and the forecast track follows that
scenario instead of the UKMET/HMON scenario. The new forecast
track is slightly faster than the previous track through 24 h, then
is a little slower than the previous track thereafter. The new
forecast is in best agreement with the GFS model, and after 36 h it
lies to the south of the various consensus models.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Alex is forecast to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday,
and tropical storm conditions are expected on the island late
tonight and Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 31.5N 71.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 32.6N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 33.9N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 34.8N 58.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 07/1800Z 35.0N 54.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 08/0600Z 35.1N 51.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/1800Z 35.7N 48.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 052039
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
500 PM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

...ALEX MOVING QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA STARTING
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 71.5W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 71.5 West. Alex is
moving toward the east-northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h). A fast
motion toward the east-northeast is expected through Monday,
followed by an eastward motion at a slower forward speed on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical storm
is expected to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight.
After that, Alex is forecast to weaken, and the system is expected
to become an extratropical low by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the east of the center. NOAA buoy 41048 east of the
center recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a
wind gust of 49 mph (79 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Alex is expected to
bring 1 to 2 inches or 25 to 50 mm of rain across Bermuda late
tonight into Monday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on the island of
Bermuda beginning late tonight or on Monday morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 052039
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012022
2100 UTC SUN JUN 05 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 71.5W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 180SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 71.5W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 72.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.6N 68.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 33.9N 63.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 170SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 34.8N 58.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 35.0N 54.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 35.1N 51.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 35.7N 48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 71.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 06/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 051735
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS ALEX IS A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA STARTING
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 72.5W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.28 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 72.5 West. Alex is
moving toward the east-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). A fast
motion toward the east-northeast is expected through Monday,
followed by an eastward motion at a slower forward speed on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the tropical storm is expected to
pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 65 mph (105
km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected
through tonight. After that, Alex is forecast to weaken, and
the system is expected to become an extratropical low on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 991 mb (29.28 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Alex is expected to
bring 2 to 3 inches or 50 to 75 mm of rain across Bermuda late
tonight into Monday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on the island of
Bermuda beginning late tonight or on Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 051609

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 05.06.2022

TROPICAL STORM ALEX ANALYSED POSITION : 30.1N 74.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.06.2022 0 30.1N 74.6W 998 42
0000UTC 06.06.2022 12 32.1N 70.1W 989 47
1200UTC 06.06.2022 24 33.4N 64.9W 993 42
0000UTC 07.06.2022 36 35.1N 59.3W 995 49
1200UTC 07.06.2022 48 41.0N 49.7W 988 54
0000UTC 08.06.2022 60 42.3N 44.1W 982 55
1200UTC 08.06.2022 72 47.7N 36.8W 979 45
0000UTC 09.06.2022 84 51.0N 30.7W 975 50
1200UTC 09.06.2022 96 53.8N 24.9W 973 48
0000UTC 10.06.2022 108 POST-TROPICAL


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 051609

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 051609

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.06.2022

TROPICAL STORM ALEX ANALYSED POSITION : 30.1N 74.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.06.2022 30.1N 74.6W MODERATE
00UTC 06.06.2022 32.1N 70.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.06.2022 33.4N 64.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.06.2022 35.1N 59.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.06.2022 41.0N 49.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.06.2022 42.3N 44.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.06.2022 47.7N 36.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.06.2022 51.0N 30.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.06.2022 53.8N 24.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.06.2022 POST-TROPICAL


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 051609

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 051448
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Alex has strengthened a little since the last advisory. The
aircraft reported a central pressure near 993 mb and maximum
flight-level winds of 89 kt at 850 mb in the southeastern quadrant.
However, the maximum reliable SFMR surface wind estimates are near
50 kt, so as mentioned previously the strongest winds may not be
mixing down to the surface. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is set to a possibly conservative 50 kt. Satellite
imagery shows that Alex remains sheared, with the strongest
convection to the east and northeast of the center. This was
confirmed by the aircraft data, which indicated that the 850 and 700
mb centers were displaced from the surface center.

The initial motion is quickly east-northeastward or 060/20 kt. A
general east-northeastward motion is expected during the next 24 h
or so, with the center of Alex passing north of Bermuda on Monday.
After that, the GFS, ECWMF, and Canadian models forecast an
eastward motion at a slower forward speed as Alex weakens, becomes
extratropical, and becomes a shallow and elongated vortex. The
new intensity forecast follows this scenario and is similar to the
previous forecast. However, by 72-96 h the forecast track is to
the south of the various consensus models, and some adjustment to
this part of the forecast may be necessary later.

Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 12 h.
After that, a combination of strong shear, dry air entrainment, and
cooler sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should
cause Alex to weaken. The cyclone is expected to become
extratropical by 48 h and dissipate completely by 120 h. The new
intensity forecast has only minor changes from the previous
forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Alex is forecast to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday,
and tropical storm conditions are expected on the island late
tonight and Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 30.4N 73.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 31.7N 70.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 33.1N 66.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 34.2N 61.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 34.6N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 08/0000Z 34.9N 53.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/1200Z 35.0N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1200Z 35.5N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 051447
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

...ALEX MOVING RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA STARTING
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 73.9W
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 73.9 West. Alex is
moving toward the east-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) A fast
motion toward the east-northeast is expected through Monday,
followed by an eastward motion at a slower forward speed on Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the tropical storm is expected to pass near
or just north of Bermuda on Monday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible through
tonight. After that time, Alex is forecast to weaken, and the
system is expected to become an extratropical low on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Alex is expected to
bring 2 to 3 inches or 50 to 75 mm of rain across Bermuda late
tonight into Monday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on the island of
Bermuda beginning late tonight or on Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 051446
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012022
1500 UTC SUN JUN 05 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 73.9W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 180SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 73.9W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 75.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 31.7N 70.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.1N 66.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 170SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.2N 61.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 34.6N 57.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 34.9N 53.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 35.0N 50.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 35.5N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 73.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 05/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 051245
TCUAT1

Tropical Storm Alex Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
845 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT ALEX IS STRONGER...

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that the
maximum sustained winds in Alex have increased to 60 mph (95 km/h)
and that the central pressure is near 993 mb.

SUMMARY OF 845 AM EDT...1245 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 74.7W
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.39 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 051157
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

...ALEX MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 75.0W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 75.0 West. Alex is
moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). Further
acceleration to the northeast is expected over the next 12-24
hours. A gradual turn to the east-northeast and east is expected
between Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the tropical
storm is expected to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today followed by
weakening beginning on Monday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently investigating Alex.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center, mainly to the southeast of the center of Alex.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Alex is expected to
bring 2 to 3 inches or 50 to 75 mm of rain across Bermuda through
Monday

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on the island of
Bermuda beginning on Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 050857
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
500 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

After the previous advisory, data from the Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunters and GOES-16 Proxy-Vis satellite imagery indicated
that a well-defined center had formed in association with what is
now Tropical Storm Alex. With that said, the satellite structure of
the storm is hardly classical, with the coldest convective cloud
tops all shunted east of the low-level center which is still
occasionally reforming northeastward where the strongest convection
is located. Earlier, the reconnaissance aircraft found 850-mb
flight-level winds up to 72 kt in the southeast quadrant of the
circulation. A nearby released dropsonde, however, suggested that
these flight-level winds were not mixing down to the surface at the
standard reduction factor, and the highest SFMR winds were only
between 35-40 kt. Thus, the initial intensity was set to only 45 kt
at 0600 UTC and that remains the intensity this advisory. Another
reconnaissance aircraft will sample the storm later today.

Alex's general motion continues off to the northeast at 065/19 kt.
This motion, with some further acceleration, is expected
during the next day or two as the system remains well embedded in
the mid-latitude westerly flow off the eastern US coastline. The
current track continues to indicate that Alex will make its closest
approach to Bermuda Monday afternoon or evening while the cyclone's
track gradually bends eastward. Thereafter, both the GFS and ECMWF
suggest Alex's surface circulation will decouple from the dwindling
convection and slow down as it becomes a shallow and stretched-out
vortex. The new NHC track maintains the slowdown trend made from
the previous advisory after 48 hours following this general shift
in the consensus track aids.

Some additional short-term strengthening is possible over the next
12 hours as long as Alex remains closely tied to the deep
convection. This convection is being aided by strong upper-level
difluent flow over the anomalously warm Gulf Stream. However, nearby
dry air combined with more than 30 kt of vertical wind shear is
forecast to disrupt this convective structure, and the global model
guidance suggests the convection could separate from the low-level
circulation after 24 hours. Thus, weakening is anticipated to start
on Monday. Continuing the trend from the previous forecast cycle,
the latest round of guidance suggests that Alex will complete
extratropical transition sooner as its circulation loses fidelity in
an increasingly baroclinic environment. The latest NHC forecast now
indicates the cyclone becoming post-tropical by 48 hours with
complete dissipation by 120 hours. However, the latest GFS and ECMWF
suggest Alex's remnant circulation could open up into a trough even
sooner than the current forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Alex is forecast to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday,
and tropical storm conditions are expected on the island on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 29.1N 76.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 30.5N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 32.0N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 33.2N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 34.0N 60.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 07/1800Z 34.3N 56.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/0600Z 34.2N 52.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0600Z 34.7N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 050854
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
500 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

...TROPICAL STORM ALEX MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 76.3W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ENE OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
ABOUT 715 MI...1155 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has upgraded the Tropical
Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the island of Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 76.3 West. Alex is
moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue with further acceleration to the northeast
over the next 12-24 hours. A gradual turn to the east-northeast and
east is expected between Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track,
the tropical storm is expected to pass near or just north of Bermuda
on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible today followed by weakening
beginning on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center, mainly in the southeastern quadrant.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Alex is expected to
bring 2 to 3 inches or 50 to 75 mm of rain across Bermuda through
Monday

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on the island of
Bermuda beginning on Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 050853
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012022
0900 UTC SUN JUN 05 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BERMUDA HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 76.3W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 180SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 300SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 76.3W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 77.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 30.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.0N 70.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 170SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 33.2N 65.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 34.0N 60.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 34.3N 56.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 34.2N 52.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 34.7N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 76.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 05/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 050553
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
200 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

...DISTURBANCE FINALLY BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ALEX...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 77.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ENE OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36-48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the newly formed tropical storm was
centered near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 77.5 West. Alex is
moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). A continued
northeast to east-northeast motion is expected during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the tropical storm is expected to move
away from the northwestern Bahamas and move near or to the north of
Bermuda on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (80 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible in the next
day or so but gradual weakening is expected by early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
east of the center.

The minimum central pressure recently indicated by the Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunters was 995 mb (29.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Alex is expected to
bring 2 to 3 inches or 50 to 75 mm of rain across Bermuda through
Monday

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 050408

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 05.06.2022

TROPICAL STORM 01L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.5N 79.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.06.2022 0 27.5N 79.6W 1000 39
1200UTC 05.06.2022 12 29.3N 75.5W 997 45
0000UTC 06.06.2022 24 31.9N 70.6W 994 44
1200UTC 06.06.2022 36 33.0N 65.9W 998 38
0000UTC 07.06.2022 48 34.0N 60.8W 1001 37
1200UTC 07.06.2022 60 38.0N 51.2W 998 41
0000UTC 08.06.2022 72 41.3N 43.1W 990 46
1200UTC 08.06.2022 84 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 050408

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 050408

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.06.2022

TROPICAL STORM 01L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.5N 79.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.06.2022 27.5N 79.6W MODERATE
12UTC 05.06.2022 29.3N 75.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.06.2022 31.9N 70.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.06.2022 33.0N 65.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.06.2022 34.0N 60.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.06.2022 38.0N 51.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.06.2022 41.3N 43.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 050408

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 050241
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
1100 PM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022

Satellite images, surface observations, and data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters indicate that system is still disorganized with
an elongated circulation and thunderstorms confined to the eastern
side of the disturbance. The heaviest rains have pulled away from
Florida and the Bahamas, but there were numerous reports of
flooding in both locations. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt
based on the steady state nature of the system and the Air Force
Hurricane Hunter data.

The disturbance is moving fairly quickly to the northeast at 17 kt,
and a continued relatively fast northeast to east-northeast motion
is expected during the next few days as the system remains embedded
in the mid-latitude westerlies. This motion should bring the
system close to or north of Bermuda on Monday. Beyond a few days,
the models show a slow down due to the disturbance becoming weaker
and vertically shallow. The new NHC track forecast is notably
slower than the previous one, especially from days 3 to 5, and
additional adjustments may be required if the model trends continue.

This system is expected to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone
overnight or on Sunday as it strengthens slightly in part due to the
effects of a nearby mid- to upper-level trough. However, any
strengthening and increase in organization will likely be
short-lived due to the influences of strong westerly shear and dry
air, and gradual weakening should commence on Monday. The models are
trending toward a faster transition to an extratropical cyclone with
the GFS, UKMET, and CMC showing the system merging with a front late
Monday or Tuesday. The ECMWF shows a slower transition, however.
The NHC forecast now predicts extratropical transition to be
complete by 60 hours, shortly after its passage by Bermuda, but
some of the models suggest it could occur sooner.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. This system is forecast to become a tropical or subtropical
storm on Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are possible on
Bermuda on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 28.4N 78.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 05/1200Z 29.7N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 06/0000Z 31.5N 72.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 32.9N 68.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 33.9N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 34.6N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/0000Z 34.7N 55.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0000Z 35.9N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0000Z 38.6N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 050240
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
1100 PM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022

...DISTURBANCE PULLING AWAY FROM FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 78.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ENE OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the northwestern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 28.4 North, longitude 78.2 West. The system is moving
toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A continued
relatively fast northeast to east-northeast motion is expected
during the next few days. On the forecast track, the disturbance
is expected to move away from the northwestern Bahamas and move near
or to the north of Bermuda on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to become a tropical or subtropical
storm on Sunday, and some strengthening is possible.
However, gradual weakening is expected early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days... high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Potential Tropical Cyclone One is
expected to bring 2 to 3 inches or 50 to 75 mm of rain across
Bermuda Sunday night into Monday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 050240
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012022
0300 UTC SUN JUN 05 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 78.2W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 78.2W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 78.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 29.7N 76.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 31.5N 72.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 32.9N 68.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 33.9N 64.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 34.6N 59.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 34.7N 55.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 35.9N 50.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 38.6N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 78.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 05/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 042354
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022

...FLOODING RAINS AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 78.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...185 KM NE OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 6 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
28.3 North, longitude 78.9 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast with
an additional increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday,
followed by a turn toward the east Monday night. On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to move farther away from the
east coast of Florida and over the southwestern Atlantic north
of the Bahamas tonight, and move near or to the north of Bermuda on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical or
subtropical storm tonight or Sunday, and some strengthening is
possible through Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days... high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 210 miles (335 km)
to the east of the center. A weather station at Settlement Point on
Grand Bahama Island recently reported a wind gust of 36 mph (57
km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will diminish across South Florida and the
Keys through this evening. Heavy rain will continue across the
northwestern Bahamas tonight before diminishing by early Sunday.
Heavy rain may begin to impact Bermuda Sunday night into Monday.

The following storm totals are expected:

South Florida: 6 to 10 inches with isolated maxima of 15 inches.
Urban flooding is expected to continue.

Florida Keys: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maxima of 10 inches. This
rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

Northwestern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with maxima of 12 inches. This
rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

Bermuda: 1 to 3 inches or 25 to 75 mm.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the northwestern
Bahamas for the next few hours. Wind gusts to tropical-storm
force are possible in squalls over portions of the east coast of
the central and southern Florida Peninsula for the next couple of
hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Monday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much 1- 3
ft above normal tide levels in the extreme northwestern Bahamas.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 042352
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022

...FLOODING RAINS AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 78.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...185 KM NE OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 6 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
28.4 North, longitude 78.8 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast with
an additional increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday,
followed by a turn toward the east Monday night. On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to move farther away from the
east coast of Florida and over the southwestern Atlantic north
of the Bahamas tonight, and move near or to the north of Bermuda on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical or
subtropical storm tonight or Sunday, and some strengthening is
possible through Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days... high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 210 miles (335 km)
to the east of the center. A weather station at Settlement Point on
Grand Bahama Island recently reported a wind gust of 36 mph (57
km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will diminish across South Florida and the
Keys through this evening. Heavy rain will continue across the
northwestern Bahamas tonight before diminishing by early Sunday.
Heavy rain may begin to impact Bermuda Sunday night into Monday.

The following storm totals are expected:

South Florida: 6 to 10 inches with isolated maxima of 15 inches.
Urban flooding is expected to continue.

Florida Keys: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maxima of 10 inches. This
rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

Northwestern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with maxima of 12 inches. This
rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

Bermuda: 1 to 3 inches or 25 to 75 mm.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the northwestern
Bahamas for the next few hours. Wind gusts to tropical-storm
force are possible in squalls over portions of the east coast of
the central and southern Florida Peninsula for the next couple of
hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Monday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much 1- 3
ft above normal tide levels in the extreme northwestern Bahamas.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 042031
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012022
2100 UTC SAT JUN 04 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 79.8W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 79.8W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 80.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 29.2N 77.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 31.1N 74.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.8N 69.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 34.4N 64.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 35.3N 59.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 36.9N 54.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 40.0N 44.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 44.5N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 79.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 05/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 042033
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
500 PM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022

Radar data and surface observations indicate that the circulation
of the disturbance has become a little better defined since the
last advisory, although the central area still consists of an area
of multiple vorticity maxima extending from near Lake Okeechobee
east-northeastward into the Atlantic. While the current structure
still does not justify an upgrade to a tropical storm, the
easternmost of these centers is near the main convective area, and
if this continues the system could become a tropical storm in the
next 6-12 hours. An earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
mission reported a large area of 50-kt winds at 3000 ft, and
believable SFMR surface wind estimates of 35-40 kt. Based on these
data, the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt.

The initial motion is 050/16, and some of this is due to the
ongoing re-formations of the center. The track guidance remains in
good agreement that a general northeastward motion should continue
through Sunday, followed by an east-northeastward to eastward
motion Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the system will
move away from Florida tonight, and then pass north of Bermuda on
Monday on its way into the central Atlantic.

Water vapor and air mass imagery show a mid- to upper-level trough
over the southeastern United States and the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
While this trough continues to aid strong westerly shear over the
disturbance, the interaction between this trough and the
disturbance is forecast to lead to a better-defined circulation
during the next 12-24 h, which should allow the disturbance to
become a tropical storm and strengthen a little. The long-term
forecast for the system has gotten murkier. After about 60-72 h,
several of the global models essentially split the system in two,
with a center that forms in the northern part of the circulation
merging with a frontal system to become an extratropical low, while
the rest of the system turns more southward and slows down well to
the east of Bermuda. Given the uncertainty, there will be no
changes at this time from the previous forecast of extratropical
transition and the associated track forecast. However, there is
now an alternate scenario that may require changes to the track and
intensity forecasts in later advisories.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall will diminish across South Florida and the Keys
through this evening. Heavy rain will continue across the
northwestern Bahamas tonight before diminishing by early Sunday.
Heavy rain may begin to impact Bermuda Sunday night into Monday. The
threat of flash flooding will continue to diminish this evening
across South Florida, but urban flooding will continue. Flash and
urban flooding is possible across the northwestern Bahamas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
in the northwestern Bahamas for the next several hours, and are
possible on Bermuda on Monday..


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 27.8N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 05/0600Z 29.2N 77.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 05/1800Z 31.1N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 32.8N 69.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 34.4N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 35.3N 59.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 36.9N 54.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/1800Z 40.0N 44.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/1800Z 44.5N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 042032
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
500 PM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022

...CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE EMERGES INTO THE ATLANTIC EAST OF
FLORIDA...
...FLOODING RAINS AND STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 79.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
ABOUT 950 MI...1525 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the east coast
of Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
27.8 North, longitude 79.8 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast with
an additional increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday,
followed by a turn toward the east Monday night. On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to move away from the east coast
of Florida this evening, move over the southwestern Atlantic
north of the Bahamas tonight, and move near or to the north of
Bermuda on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm off
the east coast of Florida tonight, and some strengthening is
forecast tonight through Monday as the system moves farther away
from Florida over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days... high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 210 miles (335 km)
to the east of the center. A weather station at Settlement Point
on Grand Bahama Island recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph
(65 km/h) and a wind gust of 49 mph (80 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will diminish across South Florida and the
Keys through this evening. Heavy rain will continue across the
northwestern Bahamas tonight before diminishing by early Sunday.
Heavy rain may begin to impact Bermuda Sunday night into Monday.

The following storm totals are expected:

South Florida: 6 to 10 inches with isolated maxima of 15 inches.
Urban flooding is expected to continue.

Florida Keys: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maxima of 10 inches. This
rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

Northwestern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with maxima of 12 inches. This
rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

Bermuda: 1 to 3 inches or 25 to 75 mm.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the northwestern
Bahamas for the next several hours. Wind gusts to tropical-storm
force are possible in squalls over portions of the east coast of
the central and southern Florida Peninsula for the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Monday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much 1- 3
ft above normal tide levels in the extreme northwestern Bahamas.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 041741
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022

...CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 80.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF FT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the east coast
of Florida south of Jupiter Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Jupiter Inlet
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
27.3 North, longitude 80.5 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast with
an additional increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday,
followed by a turn toward the east Monday night. On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to move off of the east coast of
Florida this afternoon, move over the southwestern Atlantic north of
the Bahamas tonight, and move near or to the north of Bermuda on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm off
the east coast of Florida by tonight, and some strengthening is
forecast tonight through Monday as the system moves farther away
from Florida over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days... high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 210 miles (335 km)
to the east of the center. Ft. Pierce, Florida, recently reported
a wind gust of 40 mph (65 km/h), and a weather station near
Melbourne Beach, Florida recently reported a wind gust of 48 mph
(78 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). Ft. Pierce recently
reported a pressure of 1001.7 mb (29. 58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of South
Florida and the Keys through this morning, beginning to diminish
this afternoon. Heavy rainfall will continue across the
northwestern Bahamas through today. The following storm totals are
expected:

South Florida: Storm total of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maxima of
15 inches. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected.

Florida Keys: Storm total of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maxima of
10 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

Northwestern Bahamas: Storm total of 4 to 8 inches with maxima of 12
inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
in Florida today, especially in squalls, and in the northwestern
Bahamas by this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much 1- 3
ft above normal tide levels in the extreme northwestern Bahamas.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible over the southern
Florida Peninsula and Upper Keys through early afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 041609

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 04.06.2022

TROPICAL STORM 01L ANALYSED POSITION : 25.9N 82.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.06.2022 0 25.9N 82.3W 1003 33
0000UTC 05.06.2022 12 28.1N 78.7W 997 37
1200UTC 05.06.2022 24 29.8N 76.0W 997 37
0000UTC 06.06.2022 36 31.5N 72.1W 997 39
1200UTC 06.06.2022 48 32.7N 68.0W 1000 35
0000UTC 07.06.2022 60 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 041609

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 041609

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.06.2022

TROPICAL STORM 01L ANALYSED POSITION : 25.9N 82.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.06.2022 25.9N 82.3W WEAK
00UTC 05.06.2022 28.1N 78.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.06.2022 29.8N 76.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.06.2022 31.5N 72.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.06.2022 32.7N 68.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.06.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 041609

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 041450
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
1100 AM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022

Radar data and surface observations indicate that the broad and
poorly-defined center of the disturbance is spreading onshore in
southwestern Florida, with the lowest pressure of 1002 mb in the
Naples area. These data also suggest that a new vorticity center
is forming along the east coast of Florida east and northeast of
lake Okeechobee. The maximum winds remain near 35 kt, and these
are occuring in strong convection over the water east of
southeastern Florida, well to the east of the advisory position.
While a cluster of convection is occurring near the center, the
system is still not organized enough to be called a tropical storm.

The initial motion remains 045/16, and some of this may be due to
ongoing re-formation of the center. The track guidance is in good
agreement that a general northeastward motion should continue
through Sunday, followed by an east-northeastward to eastward
motion Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the system will
emerge or re-form over the Atlantic east of Florida later today or
tonight, and then pass north of Bermuda on Monday on its way into
the central Atlantic. The new forecast track has only minor
adjustments from the previous track.

Water vapor and air mass imagery show a mid- to upper-level trough
over the southeastern United States and the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
While this trough is aiding strong westerly shear over the
disturbance, the interaction between this trough and the
disturbance is forecast to lead to a better-defined circulation
during the next 12-24 h, which should allow the disturbance to
become a tropical storm. By 72 h, this interaction is expected to
lead to the system becoming an extratropical low over the central
Atlantic. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the
intensity guidance, and like the track forecast, has only minor
adjustments from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of South Florida
and the Keys as well as the northwestern Bahamas today. Considerable
flash and urban flooding is expected across South Florida. Flash and
urban flooding is possible across the Florida Keys and the
northwestern Bahamas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Florida today, mainly in squalls, and in the northwestern Bahamas
by this afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 26.5N 81.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 05/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 05/1200Z 29.7N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 06/0000Z 31.9N 71.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 33.7N 66.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 35.0N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 35.7N 56.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/1200Z 39.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/1200Z 44.5N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 041450
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
1100 AM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022

...DISTURBANCE NOW CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA...
...FLOODING RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 81.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SW OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Florida
Keys, the west coast of Florida west of the Card Sound Bridge,
Florida Bay, and Lake Okeechobee.

The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Card Sound Bridge
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 26.5 North, longitude 81.4 West. The system is moving
toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
east-northeast with an additional increase in forward speed is
expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the east Monday night.
On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across
southern or central Florida today, over the southwestern Atlantic
north of the Bahamas tonight, and near or to the north of Bermuda
on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm off the east
coast of Florida by tonight, and some strengthening is forecast
tonight through Monday as the system moves farther away from
Florida over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 210 miles (335 km)
to the east of the center. Over the past few hours, a weather
station at Fowey Rocks near Miami, Florida reported sustained
winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 56 mph (91 km/h) at an
elevation of 144 ft (44 m).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of South
Florida and the Keys through this morning, beginning to diminish
this afternoon. Heavy rainfall will continue across the
northwestern Bahamas through today. The following storm totals are
expected:

South Florida: Storm total of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maxima of
15 inches. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected.

Florida Keys: Storm total of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maxima of
10 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

Northwestern Bahamas: Storm total of 4 to 8 inches with maxima of 12
inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
in Florida today, especially in squalls, and in the northwestern
Bahamas by this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much 1- 3
ft above normal tide levels in the extreme northwestern Bahamas.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible over the southern
Florida Peninsula and Upper Keys through early afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 041449
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012022
1500 UTC SAT JUN 04 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS...THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA WEST OF THE CARD SOUND ROAD
BRIDGE...FLORIDA BAY...AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
CARD SOUND BRIDGE
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 81.4W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 81.4W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 82.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 29.7N 76.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 31.9N 71.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.7N 66.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 35.0N 61.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 35.7N 56.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 39.0N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 44.5N 37.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 81.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 04/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 041235
TCUAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
835 AM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022

...CUBA TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...

The government of Cuba has discontinued all Tropical Storm Watches
and Warnings for Cuba.

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 041151
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022

...FLOODING RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...
...THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 82.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the west coast
of Florida north of Bonita Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to Card Sound Bridge
* East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Card Sound Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and
Mayabeque
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the poorly defined center of the
disturbance was located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 82.2
West. The system is moving faster toward the northeast near 18 mph
(30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through
tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast with an additional
increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn
toward the east Monday night. On the forecast track, the
disturbance is expected to move across southern or central Florida
today, over the southwestern Atlantic north of the Bahamas tonight,
and near or to the north of Bermuda on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts, mainly in squalls. The disturbance is expected to become a
tropical storm off the east coast of Florida by tonight, and some
strengthening is forecast tonight through Monday as the system moves
farther away from Florida over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
to the east of the center. Over the past few hours, a weather
station at Government Cut near Miami, Florida reported sustained
winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 mph (85 km/h) at an
elevation of 75 ft (23 m).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will affect portions of South Florida, the
Keys, and northwestern Bahamas through today. The following storm
totals are expected:

South Florida: Storm total of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maxima of
15 inches. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected.

Florida Keys: Storm total of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maxima of
10 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

Northwestern Bahamas: Storm total of 4 to 8 inches with maxima of 12
inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
in Florida today, especially in squalls, and in the northwestern
Bahamas by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are still
possible in western Cuba through this morning, mainly in squalls.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne
Bay...1-2 ft
Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft

Extreme Northwestern Bahamas: Storm surge could raise water levels
by as much 1- 3 ft above normal tide levels.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible over the southern
Florida Peninsula and Upper Keys through early afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>