Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for EMNATI-22
in Madagascar

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 241212
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/02/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 037/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 24/02/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-EMNATI) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.4 S / 42.3 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
350 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 170
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/25 AT 00 UTC:
30.4 S / 41.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 275 NM SE: 305 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 195 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 110 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/25 AT 12 UTC:
32.7 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 290 NM SE: 290 NM SW: 270 NM NW: 220 NM
34 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 125 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION ON EMNATI, EXCEPT
TROPICAL REINTENSIFICATION. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE MONITORED ON
THE FQZA31 BULLETIN FOR METAREA VII.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 240900
WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 220224073258
2022022406 13S EMNATI 017 01 190 18 SATL 060
T000 270S 0430E 045 R034 160 NE QD 235 SE QD 205 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 293S 0425E 045 R034 180 NE QD 230 SE QD 180 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 317S 0425E 045 R034 210 NE QD 240 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 335S 0432E 045 R034 210 NE QD 250 SE QD 190 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 27.0S 43.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 43.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 29.3S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 31.7S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 33.5S 43.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 27.6S 42.9E.
24FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 326
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z.
//
1322021418 145S 793E 20
1322021500 146S 773E 20
1322021506 144S 755E 20
1322021512 143S 738E 25
1322021518 142S 720E 30
1322021600 141S 708E 30
1322021606 140S 701E 30
1322021612 140S 692E 30
1322021618 141S 684E 35
1322021700 141S 674E 45
1322021706 140S 658E 50
1322021706 140S 658E 50
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021800 137S 633E 55
1322021800 137S 633E 55
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
1322022012 176S 552E 115
1322022012 176S 552E 115
1322022012 176S 552E 115
1322022018 176S 546E 110
1322022018 176S 546E 110
1322022018 176S 546E 110
1322022100 176S 540E 105
1322022100 176S 540E 105
1322022100 176S 540E 105
1322022106 179S 535E 100
1322022106 179S 535E 100
1322022106 179S 535E 100
1322022112 182S 527E 100
1322022112 182S 527E 100
1322022112 182S 527E 100
1322022118 185S 521E 95
1322022118 185S 521E 95
1322022118 185S 521E 95
1322022200 191S 512E 90
1322022200 191S 512E 90
1322022200 191S 512E 90
1322022206 198S 503E 80
1322022206 198S 503E 80
1322022206 198S 503E 80
1322022212 208S 495E 75
1322022212 208S 495E 75
1322022212 208S 495E 75
1322022218 216S 488E 75
1322022218 216S 488E 75
1322022218 216S 488E 75
1322022300 226S 479E 65
1322022300 226S 479E 65
1322022300 226S 479E 65
1322022306 236S 464E 60
1322022306 236S 464E 60
1322022312 243S 451E 55
1322022312 243S 451E 55
1322022318 247S 439E 45
1322022400 252S 434E 45
1322022406 270S 430E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 27.0S 43.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 43.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 29.3S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 31.7S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 33.5S 43.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 27.6S 42.9E.
24FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 326
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 240640
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 37/5/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 24/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.5 S / 42.6 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 555 SO: 445 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 390 SO: 335 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/02/2022 18 UTC: 28.9 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 630 SO: 335 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 405 SO: 195 NO: 195

24H: 25/02/2022 06 UTC: 31.1 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 610 SO: 455 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 405 SO: 295 NO: 215

36H: 25/02/2022 18 UTC: 33.4 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 545 SO: 510 NO: 380
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SO: 360 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 100

48H: 26/02/2022 06 UTC: 34.7 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 565 SO: 575 NO: 455
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 390 SO: 405 NO: 260

60H: 26/02/2022 18 UTC: 35.7 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 620 SO: 535 NO: 405
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 435 SO: 405 NO: 240

72H: 27/02/2022 06 UTC: 37.9 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 565 SO: 445 NO: 380
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 405 SO: 345 NO: 215

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/02/2022 06 UTC: 40.1 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 215 SO: 140 NO: 240


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LES PREMIERES IMAGES VISIBLES ONT PERMIS DE CONFIMER QUE LE COEUR
INTERNE D'EMNATI EST TRES MAL DEFINI DEPUIS SA RESSORTIE SUR LE CANAL
DU MOZAMBIQUE. ON PEUT EN EFFET CONSTATER LA PRESENCE D'AU MOINS 3
VORTEX TOURNANT AUTOUR DU CENTRE DEPRESSIONAIRE ACTUELLEMENT SUIVI. .
LES DONNEES SMAP/HY-2B ET ASCAT DE CE MATIN ONT CONFIRME LA PRESENCE
DE COUP DE VENT. L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 35KT MEME SI CELA EST
PEUT ETRE UN PEU CONSERVATEUR. UNE BOUEE (1601639) A ENVIRON PRES DE
70MN DU CENTRE MESURE ACTUELLEMENT UN PRESSION DE 997HPA EN ACCORD
AVEC LES 994HPA ESTIME.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE AVEC UN SCENARIO
ASSEZ BIEN STABILISE: LA TRAJECTOIRE D'EMNATI S'ORIENTE GRADUELLEMENT
AU SUD AUJOURD'HUI, SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
SUD-EST PUIS D'UNE FAIBLESSE DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS AU SUD IMMEDIAT
DU SYSTEME. VENDREDI ET SAMEDI, UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE
DEVRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT RALENTIR L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME AU SEIN DU
COURANT PERTURBE DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AVANT QUE CELLE-CI NE SOIT
EFFECTIVE DIMANCHE-LUNDI.

DE RETOUR EN MER, EMNATI DEVRAIT RENCONTRER DE MAUVAISES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES, MARQUA ES PAR UN FAIBLE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, UNE
HAUSSE PROGRESSIVE DU CISAILLEMENT PROFOND COMBINE A UNE ADVECTION
D'AIR PLUS SEC PAR LE NORD, LIMITANT AINSI LE POTENTIEL
D'INTENSIFICATION TROPICAL DU SYSTEME. AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H,
EMNATI DEVRAIT COMMENCER A PERDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES AVEC UN RENFORCEMENT DES VENTS EN LIEN
AVEC UNE INTRACTION BAROCLINE (TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ARRIVANT PAR
L'OUEST). EN FIN DE WEEK-END, DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE ENMATI
DEVRAIT ACHEVER DEFINITIVEMENT SA TRANSITION EXTRA-TROPICALE ALORS
QUE LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE FONDRE AU SEIN D'UN FRONT FROID.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 240640
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/5/20212022
1.A REMNANT LOW 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/24 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 42.6 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 555 SW: 445 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 390 SW: 335 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/24 18 UTC: 28.9 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 630 SW: 335 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 405 SW: 195 NW: 195

24H: 2022/02/25 06 UTC: 31.1 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 610 SW: 455 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 405 SW: 295 NW: 215

36H: 2022/02/25 18 UTC: 33.4 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 545 SW: 510 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SW: 360 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 100

48H: 2022/02/26 06 UTC: 34.7 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 565 SW: 575 NW: 455
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 390 SW: 405 NW: 260

60H: 2022/02/26 18 UTC: 35.7 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 620 SW: 535 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 435 SW: 405 NW: 240

72H: 2022/02/27 06 UTC: 37.9 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 565 SW: 445 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 405 SW: 345 NW: 215

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/28 06 UTC: 40.1 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 240


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES HAVE CONFIRMED THAT THE EMNATI INNER CORE IS
VERY POORLY DEFINED SINCE ITS EXIT ON THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. WE CAN
INDEED SEE THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST 3 VORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE
DEPRESSION CENTER CURRENTLY TRACKED. THIS MORNING SMAP/HY-2B AND
ASCAT DATA HAVE CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF GALES. THE INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 35KT EVEN IF IT MAY BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. A BUOY
(1601639) ABOUT 70MN FROM THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY MEASURING A
PRESSURE OF 997HPA IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ESTIMATED 994HPA.

NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH A FAIRLY WELL STABILIZED
SCENARIO: THE TRACK OF EMNATI IS GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTHWARD TODAY,
UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN A
WEAKNESS OF HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION SHOULD TEMPORARILY
SLOW DOWN THE EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES
BEFORE IT IS EFFECTIVE ON SUNDAY-MONDAY.

BACK AT SEA, EMNATI SHOULD ENCOUNTER POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
MARKED BY A WEAK OCEANIC POTENTIAL, A PROGRESSIVE INCREASE OF THE
DEEP VERTICAL WINDSHEAR COMBINED WITH AN ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM
THE NORTH, THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SYSTEM. DURING THE NEXT 24H, EMNATI IS EXPECTED TO START LOOSING
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH A STRENGTHENING OF THE WINDS
RELATED TO A BAROCLINIC INTRACTION (UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE
WEST). AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND, BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, ENMATI
SHOULD DEFINITIVELY COMPLETE ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WHILE THE
SYSTEM SHOULD MERGE INTO A COLD FRONT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 240633 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/02/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 036/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 24/02/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: REMNANT LOW 5 (EMNATI) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 42.6 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
350 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/24 AT 18 UTC:
28.9 S / 41.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 340 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 185 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 220 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 105 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/25 AT 06 UTC:
31.1 S / 41.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 255 NM SE: 330 NM SW: 245 NM NW: 195 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 220 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 115 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
REMNANT LOW BECAUSE CENTER NOT WELL DEFINED WITHOUT ORGANIZED
RAINSTORM ACTIVITY. GALE ESTIMATED STILL PRESENT HOWEVER IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 240618
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/02/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 036/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 24/02/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: REMNANT LOW 5 (EMNATI) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 42.6 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
350 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/24 AT 18 UTC:
28.9 S / 41.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2022/02/25 AT 06 UTC:
31.1 S / 41.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
REMNANT LOW BECAUSE CENTER NOT WELL DEFINED WITHOUT ORGANIZED
RAINSTORM ACTIVITY. GALE ESTIMATED STILL PRESENT HOWEVER IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 240031
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 36/5/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 24/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.7 S / 42.8 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 630 SE: 760 SO: 405 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 390 SO: 260 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/02/2022 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 535 SO: 345 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SO: 155 NO: 175

24H: 25/02/2022 00 UTC: 29.7 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 675 SO: 345 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 405 SO: 185 NO: 215

36H: 25/02/2022 12 UTC: 31.9 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 620 SO: 555 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 370 SO: 380 NO: 215

48H: 26/02/2022 00 UTC: 33.5 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 630 SE: 675 SO: 415 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 415 SO: 380 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 335 NO: 0

60H: 26/02/2022 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 530 SE: 595 SO: 510 NO: 490
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 370 SO: 380 NO: 280

72H: 27/02/2022 00 UTC: 36.0 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 695 SO: 480 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 445 SO: 350 NO: 220

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/02/2022 00 UTC: 39.4 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 390 SO: 205 NO: 270

120H: 01/03/2022 00 UTC: 41.3 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, SE
DISSIPANT
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 230 SO: 240 NO: 155

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
L'IMAGERIE PROCHE INFRA-ROUGE ET AMSUB DE LA FAUCHEE METOP-B DE 1859Z
A PERMIS DE LOCALISER UN PEU PLUS PRECISEMENT UN CENTRE MAL DEFINI
SITUE A PROXIMITE SUD-OUEST DE TULEAR. DEPUIS LE CENTRE A ETE SUIVI
EN IMAGERIE PROCHE INFRA-ROUGE. IL RESTE MAL DEFINI. L'ACTIVITE
PLUVIO-ORAGEUSE RESIDUELLE EST PRESENTE UNIQUEMENT DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST, LOIN DU CENTRE. EN ATTENDANT QU'UNE EVENTUELLE
CONVECTION ORAGEUSE PLUS IMPORTANTE SE DEVELOPPE PRES DU CENTRE, LE
SYSTEME EST CLASSE EN TANT QUE DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE. LES FAUCHEES
PARTIELLES ASCAT-B, ASCAT-C ET SMAP DE LA PREMIERE PARTIE DE NUIT,
SUGGERENT QUE DU COUP DE VENT MINIMAL EST ENCORE PRESENT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE AVEC UN SCENARIO
ASSEZ BIEN STABILISE: LA TRAJECTOIRE D'EMNATI S'ORIENTE GRADUELLEMENT
AU SUD AUJOURD'HUI, SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
SUD-EST PUIS D'UNE FAIBLESSE DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS AU SUD IMMEDIAT
DU SYSTEME. VENDREDI ET SAMEDI, UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE
DEVRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT RALENTIR L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME AU SEIN DU
COURANT PERTURBE DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AVANT QUE CELLE-CI NE SOIT
EFFECTIVE DIMANCHE-LUNDI.

DE RETOUR EN MER, EMNATI DEVRAIT RENCONTRER DE MAUVAISES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES, MARQUA ES PAR UN FAIBLE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, UNE
HAUSSE PROGRESSIVE DU CISAILLEMENT PROFOND COMBINE A UNE ADVECTION
D'AIR PLUS SEC PAR LE NORD, LIMITANT AINSI LE POTENTIEL
D'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 12-18H, IL EST
POSSIBLE QUE DE LA CONVECTION PLUS VIGOUREUSE SE DEVELOPPE AU SEIN DE
LA CIRCULATION, PERMETTANT AU SYSTEME D'ETRE CLASSIFIER A NOUVEAU
COMME TEMPETE TROPICALE. VUE LE CONTEXTE DECRIT CI-DESSUS, CETTE
EVENTUALITE N'APPARAIT PAS COMME LE SCENARIO LE PLUS PROBABLE.
A COMPTER DE LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI EMNATI DEVRAIT PERDRE
PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES AVEC UN RENFORCEMENT
DES VENTS EN LIEN AVEC UNE INTRACTION BAROCLINE (TALWEG D'ALTITUDE
ARRIVANT PAR L'OUEST). EN FIN DE WEEK-END, DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE
ENMATI DEVRAIT ACHEVER DEFINITIVEMENT SA TRANSITION EXTRA-TROPICALE
ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE FONDRE AU SEIN D'UN FRONT FROID.

EMNATI NE GENERE PLUS D'IMPACTS SIGNIFICATIFS SUR LES TERRES HABITES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 240031
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/5/20212022
1.A REMNANT LOW 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/24 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.7 S / 42.8 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 630 SE: 760 SW: 405 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 390 SW: 260 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/24 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 535 SW: 345 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SW: 155 NW: 175

24H: 2022/02/25 00 UTC: 29.7 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 675 SW: 345 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 405 SW: 185 NW: 215

36H: 2022/02/25 12 UTC: 31.9 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 620 SW: 555 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 370 SW: 380 NW: 215

48H: 2022/02/26 00 UTC: 33.5 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 630 SE: 675 SW: 415 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 415 SW: 380 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 335 NW: 0

60H: 2022/02/26 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 530 SE: 595 SW: 510 NW: 490
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 370 SW: 380 NW: 280

72H: 2022/02/27 00 UTC: 36.0 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 695 SW: 480 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 445 SW: 350 NW: 220

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/28 00 UTC: 39.4 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 390 SW: 205 NW: 270

120H: 2022/03/01 00 UTC: 41.3 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DISSIPATING
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 230 SW: 240 NW: 155

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
NEAR INFRARED AND AMSUB IMAGERY OF THE 1859Z METOP-B PASS HAS ALLOWED
TO LOCATE A POORLY DEFINED CENTER LOCATED NEAR SOUTHWEST OF TULEAR.
SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN FOLLOWED IN NEAR INFRARED IMAGERY. IT
REMAINS ILL-DEFINED. RESIDUAL RAINSTORM ACTIVITY IS PRESENT ONLY IN
THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE, FAR FROM THE CENTER. WHILE WAITING FOR A
POSSIBLE MORE IMPORTANT THUNDERSTORM CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
CENTER, THE SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS A REMNANT LOW. THE ASCAT-B,
ASCAT-C AND SMAP PARTIAL PASS OF THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT, SUGGEST
THAT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL PRESENT.

NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH A FAIRLY WELL STABILIZED
SCENARIO: THE TRACK OF EMNATI IS GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTHWARD TODAY,
UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN A
WEAKNESS OF HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION SHOULD TEMPORARILY
SLOW DOWN THE EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES
BEFORE IT IS EFFECTIVE ON SUNDAY-MONDAY.

BACK AT SEA, EMNATI SHOULD ENCOUNTER POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
MARKED BY A WEAK OCEANIC POTENTIAL, A PROGRESSIVE INCREASE OF THE
DEEP VERTICAL WINDSHEAR COMBINED WITH AN ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM
THE NORTH, THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM. DURING THE NEXT 12-18H, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MORE VIGOROUS
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE CIRCULATION, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN. GIVEN THE CONTEXT
DESCRIBED ABOVE, THIS EVENTUALITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO.
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY EMNATI SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY LOSE ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH A STRENGTHENING OF THE WINDS LINKED TO
A BAROCLINIC INTRACTION (UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST). AT THE
END OF THE WEEKEND, BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, ENMATI SHOULD
DEFINITIVELY COMPLETE ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WHILE THE SYSTEM
SHOULD MERGE INTO A COLD FRONT.

EMNATI NO LONGER GENERATES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 240014
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/02/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 035/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 24/02/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: REMNANT LOW 5 (EMNATI) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.7 S / 42.8 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 300 TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO NEAR 400 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 340 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 410 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/24 AT 12 UTC:
27.2 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 290 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 165 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 95 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/25 AT 00 UTC:
29.7 S / 41.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 290 NM SE: 365 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 190 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 220 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 115 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
REMNANT LOW BECAUSE CENTER NOT WELL DEFINED WITHOUT ORGANIZED
RAINSTORM ACTIVITY. GALE ESTIMATED STILL PRESENT HOWEVER IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 232100
WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 220223202056
2022022318 13S EMNATI 016 01 255 15 SATL SYNP XTRP 060
T000 247S 0435E 045 R034 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 262S 0423E 045 R034 090 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 283S 0416E 050 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 307S 0414E 050 R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 325S 0422E 045 R034 190 NE QD 220 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 24.7S 43.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S 43.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.2S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.3S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 30.7S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 32.5S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 25.1S 43.2E.
23FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236
NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.
//
1322021418 145S 793E 20
1322021500 146S 773E 20
1322021506 144S 755E 20
1322021512 143S 738E 25
1322021518 142S 720E 30
1322021600 141S 708E 30
1322021606 140S 701E 30
1322021612 140S 692E 30
1322021618 141S 684E 35
1322021700 141S 674E 45
1322021706 140S 658E 50
1322021706 140S 658E 50
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021800 137S 633E 55
1322021800 137S 633E 55
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
1322022012 176S 552E 115
1322022012 176S 552E 115
1322022012 176S 552E 115
1322022018 176S 546E 110
1322022018 176S 546E 110
1322022018 176S 546E 110
1322022100 176S 540E 105
1322022100 176S 540E 105
1322022100 176S 540E 105
1322022106 179S 535E 100
1322022106 179S 535E 100
1322022106 179S 535E 100
1322022112 182S 527E 100
1322022112 182S 527E 100
1322022112 182S 527E 100
1322022118 185S 521E 95
1322022118 185S 521E 95
1322022118 185S 521E 95
1322022200 191S 512E 90
1322022200 191S 512E 90
1322022200 191S 512E 90
1322022206 198S 503E 80
1322022206 198S 503E 80
1322022206 198S 503E 80
1322022212 208S 495E 75
1322022212 208S 495E 75
1322022212 208S 495E 75
1322022218 216S 488E 75
1322022218 216S 488E 75
1322022218 216S 488E 75
1322022300 226S 479E 65
1322022300 226S 479E 65
1322022300 226S 479E 65
1322022306 236S 464E 60
1322022306 236S 464E 60
1322022312 243S 451E 55
1322022312 243S 451E 55
1322022318 247S 435E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 24.7S 43.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S 43.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.2S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.3S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 30.7S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 32.5S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 25.1S 43.2E.
23FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236
NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 231830
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 35/5/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 23/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.9 S / 44.1 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 650 SE: 555 SO: 465 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 405 SO: 260 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/02/2022 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 530 SO: 390 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 345 SO: 205 NO: 140

24H: 24/02/2022 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 565 SO: 360 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 370 SO: 220 NO: 195

36H: 25/02/2022 06 UTC: 30.8 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 650 SE: 500 SO: 400 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 345 SO: 270 NO: 205

48H: 25/02/2022 18 UTC: 32.7 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 650 SE: 555 SO: 455 NO: 405
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 380 SO: 335 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 35

60H: 26/02/2022 06 UTC: 33.6 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 585 SE: 565 SO: 535 NO: 445
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 400 SO: 380 NO: 250

72H: 26/02/2022 18 UTC: 34.7 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 650 SO: 595 NO: 415
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 445 SO: 405 NO: 240

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/02/2022 18 UTC: 38.4 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 535 SO: 345 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 390 SO: 260 NO: 175

120H: 28/02/2022 18 UTC: 40.7 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 165 SO: 175 NO: 195

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LE CENTRE D'EMNATI DEVIENT DIFFICILE A LOCALISER. LA POSITION EST
ESTIMEE AVEC BEAUCOUP D'INCERTITUDE EN SE BASANT SUR L'IMAGERIE
MICRO-ONDE DE DEBUT DE SOIREE, ET L'IMAGERIE EN PROCHE INFRA-ROUGE
METTANT EN EVIDENCE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES. UN CENTRE LARGE
ET MAL DEFINI SEMBLE ETRE SUR LE POINT DE SORTIR EN MER ENTRE TULEAR
ET LE CAP SAINTE-MARIE. CLASSIQUEMENT, APRES UN PARCOURS SUR TERRE
D'UN PEU PLUS DE 18H, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE S'EST POUR L'ESSENTIEL
VOLATISEE. L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE EST MAINTENUE A 35 KT PAR
PERSISTANCE.

LA TRAJECTOIRE D'EMNATI S'ORIENTE AU SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD A PARTIR DE
JEUDI SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-EST PUIS D'UNE
FAIBLESSE DES HAUTS GA OPOTENTIELS AU SUD IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME.
VENDREDI ET SAMEDI, UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE DEVRAIT
TEMPORAIREMENT RALENTIR L'EVACUATION DU SYSTEME AU SEIN DU COURANT
PERTURBE DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AVANT QUE CELLE-CI NE SOIT EFFECTIVE
DIMANCHE-LUNDI.

DE RETOUR EN MER, EMNATI DEVRAIT RENCONTRER DE MAUVAISES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES, MARQUA ES PAR UN FAIBLE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, UNE
HAUSSE PROGRESSIVE DU CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE COMBINE A UNE ADVECTION
D'AIR PLUS SEC PAR LE NORD, LIMITANT AINSI LE POTENTIEL
D'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. DE PLUS, A COMPTER DE LA NUIT DE JEUDI
VENDREDI EMNATI DEVRAIT PERDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES, MAIS AVEC UN RENFORCEMENT DES VENTS EN LIEN AVEC UNE
INTRACTION BAROCLINE AVEC UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ARRIVANT PAR L'OUEST.
EN FIN DE WEEK-END, DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE ENMATI DEVRAIT ACHEVER
DEFINITIVEMENT SA TRANSITION EXTRA-TROPICAL, AVEC UN COEUR DEVENANT
DE PLUS EN PLUS FROID EN ALTITUDE, ET UNE ASYMETRIE DES VENTS DE
BASSES COUCHES PLUS MARQUEE, CLASSANT AINSI LE SYSTEME EN DEPRESSION
EXTRA-TROPICALE.

LES IMPACTS ADDITIONNELS D'EMNATI SUR MADAGASCAR DEVIENNENT RESIDUELS
:

-VENTS : LES VENTS SONT A LA BAISSE SUR L'ENSEMBLE DES COTES EXCEPTES
SUR LA REGION ENTRE FORT-DAUPHIN ET LE CAP SAINTE-MARIE OU ILS
PEUVENT ENCORE DEPASSER LES 100 KM/H AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES
AVANT DE BAISSER D'ICI LA FIN DE NUIT.

-PLUIES : LES PLUS FORTES PLUIES SONT MAINTENANT TERMINEES SUR
MADAGASCAR. DES PLUIES RESIDUELLES (CUMULS INFERIEURS A 50 MM EN 24H)
VONT INTERESSER LES COTES SUD-OUEST ENTRE MOROMBE ET TULEAR.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 231830
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/5/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.9 S / 44.1 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 650 SE: 555 SW: 465 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 405 SW: 260 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/24 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 530 SW: 390 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 345 SW: 205 NW: 140

24H: 2022/02/24 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 565 SW: 360 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 195

36H: 2022/02/25 06 UTC: 30.8 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 650 SE: 500 SW: 400 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 205

48H: 2022/02/25 18 UTC: 32.7 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 650 SE: 555 SW: 455 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 380 SW: 335 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 35

60H: 2022/02/26 06 UTC: 33.6 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 585 SE: 565 SW: 535 NW: 445
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 400 SW: 380 NW: 250

72H: 2022/02/26 18 UTC: 34.7 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 650 SW: 595 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 445 SW: 405 NW: 240

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/27 18 UTC: 38.4 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 535 SW: 345 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 390 SW: 260 NW: 175

120H: 2022/02/28 18 UTC: 40.7 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 195

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE CENTER OF EMNATI IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE POSITION IS
ESTIMATED WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BASED ON EARLY EVENING MICROWAVE
IMAGERY, AND NEAR INFRARED IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. A LARGE AND ILL-DEFINED CENTER SEEMS TO BE ABOUT TO GO
OUT TO SEA BETWEEN TULEAR AND CAP SAINTE-MARIE. CLASSICALLY, AFTER A
LITTLE MORE THAN 18 HOURS ON LAND, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY
VANISHED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 35 KT BY
PERSISTENCE.

EMNATI IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH-WESTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD
FROM THURSDAY UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH-EAST THEN OF A WEAKNESS OF THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, A BAROMETRIC
COL SITUATION SHOULD TEMPORARILY SLOW DOWN THE EVACUATION OF THE
SYSTEM WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES BEFORE IT IS EFFECTIVE ON
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

BACK AT SEA, EMNATI SHOULD ENCOUNTER POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
MARKED BY A WEAK OCEANIC POTENTIAL, A PROGRESSIVE INCREASE OF THE
UPPER SHEAR COMBINED WITH AN ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH,
THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
MOREOVER, FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARDS EMNATI SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY
LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, BUT WITH A STRENGTHENING OF THE
WINDS LINKED TO A BAROCLINIC INTRACTION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK,
ENMATI SHOULD DEFINITIVELY COMPLETE ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION,
WITH A CORE BECOMING COLDER AND COLDER ALOFT, AND A MORE MARKED
ASYMMETRY OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS, THUS CLASSIFYING THE SYSTEM AS AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE ADDITIONAL IMPACTS OF EMNATI ON MADAGASCAR ARE BECOMING RESIDUAL:

-WINDS : WINDS ARE DECREASING ON ALL THE COASTS EXCEPT ON THE REGION
BETWEEN FORT-DAUPHIN AND CAP SAINTE-MARIE WHERE THEY MAY STILL EXCEED
100 KM/H DURING THE NEXT HOURS BEFORE DECREASING BY THE END OF THE
NIGHT.

-RAINS : THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE NOW OVER MADAGASCAR. RESIDUAL RAINS
(LESS THAN 50 MM IN 24 HOURS) WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTS
BETWEEN MOROMBE AND TULEAR.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 231820
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/02/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 034/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 23/02/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (EMNATI) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.9 S / 44.1 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 200 TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 350 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/24 AT 06 UTC:
26.4 S / 42.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 285 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 75 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/24 AT 18 UTC:
28.4 S / 41.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 NM SE: 305 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 175 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 105 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT TO MOVE BACK OVER WATERS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 231237
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 34/5/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 23/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.3 S / 45.3 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 465 SO: 465 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 390 SO: 315 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1001 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/02/2022 00 UTC: 25.9 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 455 SO: 390 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 305 SO: 240 NO: 195

24H: 24/02/2022 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 490 SO: 370 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 335 SO: 165 NO: 240

36H: 25/02/2022 00 UTC: 30.0 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 520 SO: 350 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 360 SO: 250 NO: 240

48H: 25/02/2022 12 UTC: 31.9 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 555 SO: 455 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 390 SO: 345 NO: 240

60H: 26/02/2022 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 510 SO: 500 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 360 SO: 380 NO: 260

72H: 26/02/2022 12 UTC: 34.2 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 565 SO: 530 NO: 400
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 405 SO: 390 NO: 295

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/02/2022 12 UTC: 37.2 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 545 SO: 380 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 415 SO: 315 NO: 240

120H: 28/02/2022 12 UTC: 41.5 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 185

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
EMNATI POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DES COTES SUD-OUEST DE
MADAGASCAR. LA CIRCULATION GENERALE DU SYSTEME GARDE UNE ASSEZ FORTE
AMPLITUDE SUR UNE LARGE PARTIE SUD DE LA GRANDE ILE MAIS S'EST
LEGEREMENT AFFAIBLIE DEPUIS LA FIN DE MATINEE. SELON LA DERNIERE
ASCAT-B PARTIELLE DE 0630Z ET DES OBSERVATIONS REGULIERES REALISEES A
FORT-DAUPHIN, L'ESTIMATION DE L'INTENSITE COURANTE EST PORTEE A 35KT.
LA CONVECTION ENCORE OBSERVA E A 0600Z PROCHE DU CENTRE DE
CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES, S'EST PEU A PEU DELITEE AU FIL DE
L'APRES-MIDI.

LA TRAJECTOIRE D'EMNATI EST ORIENTEE AU SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD A PARTIR
DE JEUDI SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-EST PUIS
D'UNE FAIBLESSE DES HAUTS GA OPOTENTIELS AU SUD IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME.
EMNATI VA DONC A TRES COURT TERME TRAVERSER LES TERRES MALGACHES ET
RESSORTIR DANS LE CANAL DE MOZAMBIQUE AU SUD-OUEST DE LA GRANDE ILE,
PROBABLEMENT ENTRE LE CAP DE SAINTE-MARIE ET LA VILLE D'ITAMPOLO, AU
COURS DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE, AVANT DE S'EVACUER VERS LES LATITUDES
EXTRATROPICALES EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES VENTS VONT CERTAINEMENT PLAFONNER AU COURS
DU TRANSIT DU SYSTEME SUR LES TERRES. EMNATI DEVRAIT RESSORTIR DANS
LE CANAL DE MOZAMBIQUE AU STADE MINIMAL DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE,
ET DEVRAIT GARDER UNE LARGE CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES. DE RETOUR
EN MER, EMNATI DEVRAIT RENCONTRER DE MAUVAISES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES, MARQUA ES PAR UN FAIBLE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, UNE
HAUSSE PROGRESSIVE DU CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE COMBINE A UNE ADVECTION
D'AIR PLUS SEC PAR LE NORD, LIMITANT AINSI LE POTENTIEL
D'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. DE PLUS, A COMPTER DE VENDREDI EMNATI
DEVRAIT PERDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES, MAIS
EN GARDANT TOUTEFOIS DES VENTS MAXIMAUX DE L'ORDRE DE 40 A 45 KT EN
LIEN AVEC DES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES PRESENTS SUR L'OUEST DU SYSTEME.
EN FIN DE WEEK-END, DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE ENMATI DEVRAIT ACHEVER
DEFINITIVEMENT SA TRANSITION EXTRA-TROPICAL, AVEC UN COEUR DEVENANT
DE PLUS EN PLUS FROID EN ALTITUDE, ET UNE ASYMETRIE DES VENTS DE
BASSES COUCHES PLUS MARQUEE, CLASSANT AINSI LE SYSTEME EN DEPRESSION
EXTRA-TROPICALE.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR MADAGASCAR :
-VENTS : PERSISTANCE DE RAFALES IMPORTANTES DE L'ORDRE DE 100 A 110
KM/H SUR LA COTE EST ET SUD DE MADAGASCAR EN RAISON DU DEPLACEMENT DU
SYSTEME EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST. AVEC L'ARRIVA E AU COURS DE LA
NUIT PROCHAINE D'EMNATI DANS LE CANAL, PUIS L'ELOIGNEMENT DE
CELUI-CI, LES RAFALES DIMINUERONT PROGRESSIVEMENT ENTRE 90 ET 100
KM/H EN RESTANT AU LARGE SUD DE LA GRANDE ILE.
-PLUIES : LES CUMULS DE PLUIE RESTENT TOUJOURS TRES IMPORTANTS DANS
LE DEMI-CERCLE EST DU SYSTA ME, LE LONG DE LA TRAJECTOIRE D'EMNATI,
CE QUI DONNE DE FORTS CUMULS DE PLUIE ENTRE 100 ET 300 MM EN 24H EN
PLAINE, ET JUSQU'A 300/500 MM EN 24H SUR LES HAUTS PLATEAUX DE L'EST
ENTRE NOSY-VARIKA ET AMBOVOMBE. CES FORTES PLUIES PEUVENT CREER
D'IMPORTANTES INONDATIONS ET DES GLISSEMENTS DE TERRAIN. AMELIORATION
GRADUELLE A PARTIR DE JEUDI APRES L'EVACUATION DE EMNATI DANS LE SUD
DU CANAL, TOUTEFOIS DES CUMULS DE PLUIES DE MOINDRE IMPORTANCE SERONT
DA PORTA ES (50/100 MM EN 24H) SUR LA COTE NORD-OUEST, ENTRE
MORONDAVA ET TOLIARA, DANS LE FLUX DE NORD-OUEST.
-MER : MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE ENTRE MANAKARA ET BETANTY, ISSUE DE LA
COMBINAISON D'UNE HOULE CYCLONIQUE ASSOCIEE A DES VAGUES PROCHES DE 7
A 10 METRES AU LARGE EST ET SUD-EST. UNE SURCOTE MAXIMALE PROCHE DES
60/80 CM, PEUT GENERER ENCORE DES SUBMERSIONS IMPORTANTES SUR LES
REGIONS COTIERES, NOTAMMENT ENTRE MAHANORO ET MANANJARY. LES
HABITANTS SONT INVITES A LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE ET A SUIVRE LES
CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 231237
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/5/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3 S / 45.3 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 465 SW: 465 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 390 SW: 315 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/24 00 UTC: 25.9 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 455 SW: 390 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 195

24H: 2022/02/24 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 490 SW: 370 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 335 SW: 165 NW: 240

36H: 2022/02/25 00 UTC: 30.0 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 520 SW: 350 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 360 SW: 250 NW: 240

48H: 2022/02/25 12 UTC: 31.9 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 555 SW: 455 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 390 SW: 345 NW: 240

60H: 2022/02/26 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 510 SW: 500 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 360 SW: 380 NW: 260

72H: 2022/02/26 12 UTC: 34.2 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 565 SW: 530 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 405 SW: 390 NW: 295

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/27 12 UTC: 37.2 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 545 SW: 380 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 415 SW: 315 NW: 240

120H: 2022/02/28 12 UTC: 41.5 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 185

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
EMNATI CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARDS . THE GENERAL CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM KEEPS A RATHER STRONG AMPLITUDE OVER A LARGE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE ISLAND BUT HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED SINCE THE END OF THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE LAST PARTIAL 0630Z ASCAT-B SWATH AND REGULAR
OBSERVATIONS MADE AT FORT-DAUPHIN, THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
35KT. THE CONVECTION STILL OBSERVED AT 0600Z CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, HAS GRADUALLY DECAYED DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

EMNATI TRACK IS ORIENTED SOUTH-WESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS FROM
THURSDAY UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-EAST
THEN OF A WEAKNESS OF THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. EMNATI WILL THEREFORE CROSS THE MALAGASY LANDS IN THE
VERY SHORT TERM AND WILL EMERGE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE
SOUTH-WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND, PROBABLY BETWEEN THE CAPE OF
SAINTE-MARIE AND THE CITY OF ITAMPOLO, DURING THE NEXT NIGHT, BEFORE
EVACUATING TOWARDS THE EXTRATROPICAL LATITUDES AT THE END OF THE
WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE WINDS WILL CERTAINLY CEILING DURING THE
PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM ON THE LAND. EMNATI SHOULD EMERGE IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AT THE MINIMAL STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM,
AND SHOULD KEEP A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. BACK AT SEA,
EMNATI SHOULD ENCOUNTER DEGRADED CONDITIONS, MARKED BY A LOW OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, A PROGRESSIVE INCREASE OF THE UPPER SHEAR COMBINED WITH AN
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH, THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL OF
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. MOREOVER, FROM FRIDAY EMNATI SHOULD
PROGRESSIVELY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, BUT STILL KEEPING
MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 40 TO 45 KT IN RELATION WITH BAROCLINIC
PROCESSES PRESENT ON THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE END OF THE
WEEKEND, BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, ENMATI SHOULD DEFINITIVELY COMPLETE
ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, WITH A CORE BECOMING COLDER ALOFT, AND
AN ASYMMETRY OF THE WINDS OF LOW LAYERS MORE MARKED, THUS CLASSIFYING
THE SYSTEM IN EXTRA-TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR :
-WINDS: PERSISTENCE OF STRONG GUSTS OF ABOUT 100 TO 110 KM/H ON THE
EAST AND SOUTH COAST OF MADAGASCAR DUE TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWESTWARDS. WITH THE ARRIVAL DURING THE NEXT NIGHT OF EMNATI IN
THE CHANNEL, THEN THE DISTANCE OF THIS ONE, THE GUSTS WILL DECREASE
PROGRESSIVELY BETWEEN 90 AND 100 KM/H WHILE REMAINING OFF THE SOUTH
OF THE BIG ISLAND.
-RAINS : RAINFALL IS STILL VERY IMPORTANT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE SYSTEM, ALONG THE EMNATI'S TRACK, WHICH GIVES HEAVY RAINFALL
BETWEEN 100 AND 300 MM IN 24 HOURS IN THE PLAIN, AND UP TO 300/500 MM
IN 24 HOURS ON THE HIGHLANDS OF THE EAST BETWEEN NOSY-VARIKA AND
AMBOVOMBE. THESE HEAVY RAINS CAN CREATE IMPORTANT FLOODS AND
LANDSLIDES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THURSDAY AFTER THE EVACUATION OF
EMNATI IN THE SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL, HOWEVER, LESSER RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE SHIFTED (50/100 MM IN 24H) TO THE NORTHWEST COAST, BETWEEN
MORONDAVA AND TOLIARA, IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
-SEA : VERY ROUGH TO HEAVY SEA BETWEEN MANAKARA AND BETANTY,
RESULTING FROM A COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES
CLOSE TO 7 TO 10 METERS OFF EAST AND SOUTHEAST. A MAXIMUM SURGE CLOSE
TO 60/80 CM, CAN STILL GENERATE IMPORTANT SUBMERSIONS ON THE COASTAL
AREAS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MAHANORO AND MANANJARY. THE INHABITANTS ARE
INVITED TO BE VERY CAREFUL AND TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE
AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 231207
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/02/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 033/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 23/02/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (EMNATI) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3 S / 45.3 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 190 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 290 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/24 AT 00 UTC:
25.9 S / 43.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 NM SE: 245 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 105 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/24 AT 12 UTC:
27.6 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 265 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 155 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 130 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 230900
WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 220223063827
2022022306 13S EMNATI 015 01 235 18 SATL 020
T000 236S 0463E 060 R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 254S 0443E 055 R050 040 NE QD 110 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 270S 0429E 050 R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 288S 0423E 050 R050 030 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 310S 0422E 045 R034 200 NE QD 220 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 23.6S 46.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6S 46.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 25.4S 44.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 27.0S 42.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.8S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 31.0S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 24.0S 45.8E.
23FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND
240900Z.//
1322021418 145S 793E 20
1322021500 146S 773E 20
1322021506 144S 755E 20
1322021512 143S 738E 25
1322021518 142S 720E 30
1322021600 141S 708E 30
1322021606 140S 701E 30
1322021612 140S 692E 30
1322021618 141S 684E 35
1322021700 141S 674E 45
1322021706 140S 658E 50
1322021706 140S 658E 50
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021800 137S 633E 55
1322021800 137S 633E 55
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
1322022012 176S 552E 115
1322022012 176S 552E 115
1322022012 176S 552E 115
1322022018 176S 546E 110
1322022018 176S 546E 110
1322022018 176S 546E 110
1322022100 176S 540E 105
1322022100 176S 540E 105
1322022100 176S 540E 105
1322022106 179S 535E 100
1322022106 179S 535E 100
1322022106 179S 535E 100
1322022112 182S 527E 100
1322022112 182S 527E 100
1322022112 182S 527E 100
1322022118 185S 521E 95
1322022118 185S 521E 95
1322022118 185S 521E 95
1322022200 191S 512E 90
1322022200 191S 512E 90
1322022200 191S 512E 90
1322022206 198S 503E 80
1322022206 198S 503E 80
1322022206 198S 503E 80
1322022212 208S 495E 75
1322022212 208S 495E 75
1322022212 208S 495E 75
1322022218 216S 488E 75
1322022218 216S 488E 75
1322022218 216S 488E 75
1322022300 226S 479E 65
1322022300 226S 479E 65
1322022300 226S 479E 65
1322022306 236S 463E 60
1322022306 236S 463E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 23.6S 46.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6S 46.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 25.4S 44.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 27.0S 42.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.8S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 31.0S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 24.0S 45.8E.
23FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND
240900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 230636
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 33/5/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 23/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.4 S / 46.7 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 981 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 610 SE: 555 SO: 465 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 405 SE: 335 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/02/2022 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 535 SO: 360 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SO: 175 NO: 215

24H: 24/02/2022 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 535 SO: 280 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 335 SO: 95 NO: 230

36H: 24/02/2022 18 UTC: 28.5 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 565 SO: 345 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 360 SO: 140 NO: 250

48H: 25/02/2022 06 UTC: 30.7 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 530 SE: 610 SO: 445 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 390 SO: 250 NO: 260

60H: 25/02/2022 18 UTC: 32.4 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 610 SE: 595 SO: 425 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 325 SE: 390 SO: 250 NO: 260
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 95 NO: 110

72H: 26/02/2022 06 UTC: 33.1 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 470 SO: 445 NO: 400
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 325 SO: 270 NO: 315

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/02/2022 06 UTC: 35.8 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 535 SO: 380 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 370 SO: 220 NO: 250


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=/

EMNATI EVOLUE DESORMAIS SUR LES TERRES MALGACHES DEPUIS HIER SOIR
2300 UTC. LA STRUCTURE NUAGEUSE S'EST PROGRESSIVEMENT ETENDUE, AVEC
DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI SE SONT NETTEMENT RECHAUFFES AU COURS DES 6
DERNIERES HEURES. LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME SEMBLE S'ETRE
EGALEMENT ACCELEREE DEPUIS SON ATTERRISSAGE. EMNATI EST DONC EN PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. L'ESTIMATION DE L'INTENSITE ET DES EXTENSIONS DE
VENT SONT BASSEES SUR LA PASSE PARTIELLE DE L'ASCAT DE 0530Z.

LA TRAJECTOIRE D'EMNATI EST ORIENTEE AU SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD SOUS
L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-EST PUIS A L'EST DU
SYSTEME. EMNATI VA DONC TRAVERSER LES TERRES MALGACHES ET RESSORTIR
EN MER AU SUD DE LA GRANDE ILE DURANT LA NUIT DE MERCREDI A JEUDI,
AVANT DE S'EVACUER LENTEMENT VERS LES LATITUDES EXTRATROPICALES EN
FIN DE SEMAINE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES VENTS VONT S'AFFAIBLIR LEGEREMENT A COURT
TERME AVEC LA PROGRESSION DU SYSTEME SUR LES TERRES. EMNATI
RESSORTIRA AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR A UN STADE AFFAIBLI DE TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC UNE CIRCULATION ASSEZ LARGE. AVEC DES
TEMPERATURES DE LA MER EN NETTE BAISSE TRADUISANT UN FAIBLE POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE, LA HAUSSE PROGRESSIVE DU CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE COMBINE A
UNE ADVECTION D'AIR PLUS SEC PAR LE NORD, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES DES
VENDREDI, MAIS EN GARDANT DES VENTS MAXIMAUX DE L'ORDRE DE 40 A 50 KT
EN LIEN AVEC DES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE ENMATI
DEVRAIT ACHEVER DEFINITIVEMENT SA TRANSITION EXTRA-TROPICAL, AVEC UN
COEUR DE PLUS EN PLUS FROID EN ALTITUDE, CLASSANT AINSI LE SYSTEME EN
DEPRESSION EXTRA-TROPICALE.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR MADAGASCAR :
-VENTS : PERSISTANCE DE RAFALES IMPORTANTES SUR LA COTE EST DE
MADAGASCAR NON LOIN DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT ET JUSQU'AU SUD VERS
AMBOVOMBE. AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES LES RAFALES POURRONT
SOUFFLER ENTRE 130 ET 140 KM/H.
-PLUIES : DES CUMULS DE PLUIE TRES IMPORTANTS SONT ATTENDUS LE LONG
ET EN BORDURE EST DE LA TRAJECTOIRE, DE L'ORDRE DE 150-300 MM EN 24H
EN PLAINE ET 300-600 MM SUR LE RELIEF. CES FORTES PLUIES PEUVENT
CREER D'IMPORTANTES INONDATIONS ET DES GLISSEMENTS DE TERRAIN.
AMELIORATION GRADUELLE EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI AVEC L'EVACUATION DE
EMNATI DANS LE SUD DU CANAL.
-MER : MEME SI LES MARINES AURONT TENDANCE A S'AMORTIR EN COURS DE
JOURNEE, LA PERSISTANCE CE MATIN D'UNE COMBINAISON D'UNE HOULE
CYCLONIQUE ASSOCIEE A DES VAGUES PROCHES DE 10 METRES AU LARGE ET
D'UNE SURELEVATION DU NIVEAU DE LA MER ENTRE 50 CMC ET 1M, PEUT
GENERER ENCORE DES SUBMERSIONS IMPORTANTES SUR LES REGIONS COTIERES
SITUEES ENTRE MAHANORO ET LE SUD DE L'ILE.
-LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE ET A SUIVRE LES
CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 230636
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/5/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/23 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 46.7 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 610 SE: 555 SW: 465 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 405 SE: 335 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/23 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 535 SW: 360 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SW: 175 NW: 215

24H: 2022/02/24 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 535 SW: 280 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 335 SW: 95 NW: 230

36H: 2022/02/24 18 UTC: 28.5 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 565 SW: 345 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 360 SW: 140 NW: 250

48H: 2022/02/25 06 UTC: 30.7 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 530 SE: 610 SW: 445 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 390 SW: 250 NW: 260

60H: 2022/02/25 18 UTC: 32.4 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 610 SE: 595 SW: 425 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 325 SE: 390 SW: 250 NW: 260
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 110

72H: 2022/02/26 06 UTC: 33.1 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 470 SW: 445 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 315

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/27 06 UTC: 35.8 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 535 SW: 380 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 250


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/

EMNATI IS NOW EVOLVING ON THE MALAGASY LANDS SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING
2300 UTC. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS PROGRESSIVELY EXPANDED, WITH CLOUD
TOPS THAT HAVE WARMED UP SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE
SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE ACCELERATED SINCE ITS
LANDING. EMNATI IS THEREFORE IN A WEAKENING PHASE. THE ESTIMATED WIND
INTENSITY AND EXTENSIONS ARE BASED ON THE PARTIAL 0530Z ASCAT SWATH .

EMNATI KEEPS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WILL TURN SOUTHWARD UNDER
THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-EAST THEN TO THE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. EMNATI WILL THEREFORE MOVE ACROSS THE MALAGASY
LANDS AND MOVE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR BEFORE THURSDAY MORNING
AND WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS EXTRATROPICAL LATITUDES BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE SHORT
TERM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. EMNATI WILL EMERGE SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR AS A WEAKENED MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITH A FAIRLY BROAD
CIRCULATION. WITH SEA TEMPERATURES CLEARLY DECREASING REFLECTING A
LOW OCEANIC POTENTIAL, THE PROGRESSIVE INCREASE OF THE WINDSHEAR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH AN ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR BY THE NORTH, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY LOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
ON FRIDAY, BUT KEEPING MAXIMUM WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KT IN
CONNECTION WITH BAROCLINIC PROCESSES. FROM SUNDAY ENMATI SHOULD
DEFINITIVELY COMPLETE ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, WITH AN
INCREASINGLY COLD CORE ALOFT, THUS CLASSIFYING THE SYSTEM AS AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR :
-WINDS: PERSISTENCE OF STRONG GUSTS ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR
NOT FAR FROM THE IMPACT AREA AND UP TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS AMBOVOMBE.
DURING THE NEXT HOURS THE GUSTS COULD BLOW BETWEEN 130 AND 140 KM/H.
-RAINFALL: VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE TRAJECTORY, IN THE ORDER OF 150-300 MM IN 24 HOURS IN THE PLAINS
AND 300-600 MM ON THE RELIEF. THESE HEAVY RAINS CAN CREATE IMPORTANT
FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY WITH THE
EVACUATION OF EMNATI IN THE SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL.
-SEA : EVEN IF THE SEAS WILL TEND TO DECREASE TODAY, THE PERSISTENCE
THIS MORNING OF A COMBINATION OF A CYCLONIC SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH
WAVES CLOSE TO 10 METERS OFFSHORE AND SEA SURGE BETWEEN 50 CM AND 1M,
MAY STILL GENERATE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON THE COASTAL AREAS LOCATED
BETWEEN MAHANORO AND THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND.
-THE INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO BE VERY CAREFUL AND TO FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF THE AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 230616
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/02/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 032/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 23/02/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (EMNATI) 981 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 46.7 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 300 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 330 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/23 AT 18 UTC:
25.1 S / 44.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 230 NM SE: 290 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 115 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/24 AT 06 UTC:
26.4 S / 43.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 290 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 125 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 230027
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/5/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 23/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.5 S / 47.8 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE SEPT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 967 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 480 SO: 405 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 335 SO: 260 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/02/2022 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 480 SO: 405 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SO: 270 NO: 0

24H: 24/02/2022 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 565 SO: 400 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SO: 220 NO: 0

36H: 24/02/2022 12 UTC: 27.1 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 470 SO: 350 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SO: 185 NO: 0

48H: 25/02/2022 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 585 SO: 415 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 380 SO: 230 NO: 120

60H: 25/02/2022 12 UTC: 30.8 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 610 SO: 465 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 405 SO: 315 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 85 NO: 75

72H: 26/02/2022 00 UTC: 32.0 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 510 SO: 435 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 370 SO: 280 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 65 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/02/2022 00 UTC: 34.0 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 465 SO: 510 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 380 SO: 270 NO: 85

120H: 28/02/2022 00 UTC: 38.5 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 325 SO: 240 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 195

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=/

LE CENTRE DU CYCLONE TROPICAL EMNATI A ATTERRI SUR LA COTE EST DE
MADAGASCAR CE MARDI VERS 23UTC (MERCREDI A 02H DU MATIN, HEURE DE
MADAGASCAR) A ENVIRON 20 A 30 KM AU SUD DE MANAKARA ET ENVIRON 40 A
50 KM AU NORD DE FARAFANGANA (VERS 22.4S). LA LOCALISATION DE
L'ATTERRISSAGE EST ESTIMEE SUR LA BASE DE L'IMAGERIE INFRAROUGE MSG1
QUI A LAISSE APPARAITRE UN OEIL AVANT ET PENDANT L'ATTERRISSAGE, ET
EN TENANT COMPTE DE L'EFFET DE PARALLAXE DU SATELLITE. CET
ATTERRISSAGE S'EST DONC PRODUIT UN PEU PLUS AU SUD ET UN PEU PLUS
TARD QU'INITIALEMENT PREVU. LE CYCLONE A EN EFFET CONNU UNE INFLEXION
DE TRAJECTOIRE DAVANTAGE VERS LE SUD CES DERNIERES HEURES, LE FAISANT
LONGER PLUS LONGTEMPS LA COTE. L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL
EXTERNE ET LE REGAIN D'ACTIVITE AU NIVEAU DU MUR INTERNE S'EST
CONFIRME AVEC UN CENTRE COMPACT ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE CONVECTION
VIGOUREUSE DESORMAIS CONCENTREE DANS UN RAYON DE MOINS DE 70 KM DU
CENTRE ET AU CONTRAIRE UN RECHAUFFEMENT DES SOMMETS A PLUS LONGUE
DISTANCE DU CENTRE. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE AU MOMENT DE
L'ATTERRISSAGE EST TRES INCERTAINE (MANQUE D'OBSERVATIONS, ANALYSE
DVORAK PEU PERTINENTE) MAIS, DANS LA CONTINUITE DES 75/80 KT ESTIMES
PRECEDEMMENT, ON PEUT SUPPOSER QUE LES VENTS MAXIMAUX VERS 23UTC
ETAIENT POTENTIELLEMENT DE L'ORDRE DE 70 A 75 KT. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DES VENTS ET UNE HAUSSE DE LA PRESSION S'AMORCENT ACTUELLEMENT ALORS
QUE LE CENTRE PENETRE DANS LES TERRES, D'OU UNE ESTIMATION A 65KT A
00UTC.

LA TRAJECTOIRE D'EMNATI EST ORIENTEE AU SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD SOUS
L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-EST PUIS A L'EST DU
SYSTEME. EMNATI VA DONC TRAVERSER LES TERRES MALGACHES ET RESSORTIR
EN MER AU SUD DE LA GRANDE ILE DURANT LA NUIT DE MERCREDI A JEUDI,
AVANT DE S'EVACUER LENTEMENT VERS LES LATITUDES EXTRATROPICALES EN
FIN DE SEMAINE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES VENTS VONT NATURELLEMENT S'AFFAIBLIR AVEC
LA PROGRESSION DU SYSTEME SUR LES TERRES. EMNATI RESSORTIRA AU SUD DE
MADAGASCAR A UN STADE AFFAIBLI DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC UNE
CIRCULATION ASSEZ LARGE. AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE, PUIS
LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT ET UNE ADVECTION D'AIR PLUS SEC PAR LE
NORD, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT DEVENIR POST-TROPICAL A
PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI, MAIS EN GARDANT DES VENTS
MAXIMAUX DE L'ORDRE DE 40 A 50 KT EN LIEN AVEC DES PROCESSUS
BAROCLINES.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR MADAGASCAR :
-VENTS : PRES DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT ET JUSQU'A 100 KM AU SUD DU CENTRE,
IL FAUT ENCORE CRAINDRE DES RAFALES DEPASSANT LES 150 KM/H CES
PROCHAINES HEURES.
-PLUIES : DES CUMULS DE PLUIE TRES IMPORTANTS SONT ATTENDUS LE LONG
ET EN BORDURE SUD DE LA TRAJECTOIRE, DE L'ORDRE DE 150-300 MM EN 24H
EN PLAINE ET 300-600 MM SUR LE RELIEF. CES FORTES PLUIES PEUVENT
CREER D'IMPORTANTES INONDATIONS ET DES GLISSEMENTS DE TERRAIN.
-MER : LA COMBINAISON D'UNE HOULE CYCLONIQUE ASSOCIEE A DES VAGUES
PROCHES DE 10 METRES AU LARGE ET D'UNE SURELEVATION DU NIVEAU DE LA
MER D'ENVIRON 1M, PEUT GENERER DES SUBMERSIONS IMPORTANTES SUR LES
REGIONS COTIERES SITUEES AU SUD DU CENTRE (JUSQU'A 100-150 KM AU SUD
DU CENTRE).
-LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE ET A SUIVRE LES
CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 230027
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/5/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/23 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 47.8 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 967 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 480 SW: 405 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 335 SW: 260 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/23 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 480 SW: 405 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 0

24H: 2022/02/24 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 565 SW: 400 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 0

36H: 2022/02/24 12 UTC: 27.1 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 470 SW: 350 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 0

48H: 2022/02/25 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 585 SW: 415 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 380 SW: 230 NW: 120

60H: 2022/02/25 12 UTC: 30.8 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 610 SW: 465 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 405 SW: 315 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 75

72H: 2022/02/26 00 UTC: 32.0 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 510 SW: 435 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 65 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/27 00 UTC: 34.0 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 465 SW: 510 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 380 SW: 270 NW: 85

120H: 2022/02/28 00 UTC: 38.5 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 325 SW: 240 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 195

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL CYCLONE EMNATI MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST
OF MADAGASCAR THIS TUESDAY AROUND 23Z (WEDNESDAY AT 02 AM ,
MADAGASCAR TIME) ABOUT 20 TO 30 KM SOUTH OF MANAKARA AND ABOUT 40 TO
50 KM NORTH OF FARAFANGANA (AROUND 22.4S). THE LANDFALL LOCATION IS
ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF MSG1 INFRARED IMAGERY WHICH DISPLAYED AN
EYE BEFORE AND DURING LANDFALL, AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE
SATELLITE'S PARALLAX EFFECT. THIS LANDFALL OCCURRED A LITTLE BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND A LITTLE BIT LATER THAN INITIALLY FORECAST. THE
CYCLONE HAS INDEED BEEN MOVING MORE SOUTHWARD IN THE LAST FEW HOURS,
MAKING IT SKIRT ALONG THE COAST A BIT LONGER. THE OUTER EYEWALL'S
WEAKENING AND RENEWED ACTIVITY WITHIN THE INNER EYEWALL HAS BEEN
CONFIRMED BY RECENT IMAGERY WITH A COMPACT CENTER ACCOMPANIED BY A
SUSTAINED CONVECTION NOW CONCENTRATED WITHIN A RADIUS OF LESS THAN 70
KM FROM THE CENTER AND ON THE CONTRARY A WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS AT A
LONGER DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT THE TIME
OF LANDFALL IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN (LACK OF OBSERVATIONS, DVORAK
ANALYSIS NOT VERY HELPFUL) BUT, IN THE CONTINUITY OF THE 75/80 KT
ESTIMATED PREVIOUSLY, WE CAN SUPPOSE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND
23UTC WERE POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO 70/75 KT. WEAKENING WINDS AND
INCREASING CENTRAL PRESSURE ARE CURRENTLY UNDERWAY AS THE CENTER
MOVES OVER LAND, HENCE AN ESTIMATE OF 65KT AT 00UTC.

EMNATI KEEPS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WILL TURN SOUTHWARD UNDER
THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-EAST THEN TO THE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. EMNATI WILL THEREFORE MOVE ACROSS THE MALAGASY
LANDS AND MOVE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR BEFORE THURSDAY MORNING
AND WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS EXTRATROPICAL LATITUDES BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WINDS WILL NATURALLY WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS OVER LAND. EMNATI WILL EMERGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR AS A
WEAKENED MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITH A FAIRLY BROAD CIRCULATION.
WITH DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL, THEN INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND DRY
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME
POST-TROPICAL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARDS, BUT WILL STILL KEEP
MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 40 TO 50 KT IN CONNECTION WITH BAROCLINIC
PROCESSES.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR :
-WINDS : NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA AND UP TO 100 KM SOUTH OF THE CENTER,
GUSTS EXCEEDING 150 KM/H ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
-RAINFALL : VERY IMPORTANT ACCUMULATIONS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TRACK, ABOUT 150-300 MM IN 24H IN THE
LOWLANDS AND 300-600 MM ON HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL CAN
CREATE IMPORTANT FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES.
-SEA: THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES CLOSE
TO 10 METERS OFFSHORE AND A SEA SURGE REACHING ABOUT 1M CAN GENERATE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON THE COASTAL AREAS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CENTER
(UP TO 100-150 KM SOUTH OF THE CENTER).
-INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO EXTREMELY CAREFUL AND TO FOLLOW LOCAL
AUTHORITIES INSTRUCTIONS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 230011
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/02/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 23/02/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (EMNATI) 967 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 47.8 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 260 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/23 AT 12 UTC:
24.5 S / 45.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 260 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 160 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/24 AT 00 UTC:
25.5 S / 43.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 305 NM SW: 215 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 222100
WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 220222201249
2022022218 13S EMNATI 014 01 220 10 SATL 060
T000 216S 0488E 075 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 135 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 231S 0473E 065 R064 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 249S 0454E 055 R050 020 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 265S 0439E 050 R050 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 283S 0430E 050 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 315S 0433E 045 R034 160 NE QD 200 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 48.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 48.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 23.1S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.9S 45.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.5S 43.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.3S 43.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.5S 43.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 48.4E.
22FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z.
//
1322021418 145S 793E 20
1322021500 146S 773E 20
1322021506 144S 755E 20
1322021512 143S 738E 25
1322021518 142S 720E 30
1322021600 141S 708E 30
1322021606 140S 701E 30
1322021612 140S 692E 30
1322021618 141S 684E 35
1322021700 141S 674E 45
1322021706 140S 658E 50
1322021706 140S 658E 50
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021800 137S 633E 55
1322021800 137S 633E 55
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
1322022012 176S 552E 115
1322022012 176S 552E 115
1322022012 176S 552E 115
1322022018 176S 546E 110
1322022018 176S 546E 110
1322022018 176S 546E 110
1322022100 176S 540E 105
1322022100 176S 540E 105
1322022100 176S 540E 105
1322022106 179S 535E 100
1322022106 179S 535E 100
1322022106 179S 535E 100
1322022112 182S 527E 100
1322022112 182S 527E 100
1322022112 182S 527E 100
1322022118 185S 521E 95
1322022118 185S 521E 95
1322022118 185S 521E 95
1322022200 191S 512E 90
1322022200 191S 512E 90
1322022200 191S 512E 90
1322022206 198S 503E 80
1322022206 198S 503E 80
1322022206 198S 503E 80
1322022212 208S 495E 75
1322022212 208S 495E 75
1322022212 208S 495E 75
1322022218 216S 488E 75
1322022218 216S 488E 75
1322022218 216S 488E 75
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 48.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 48.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 23.1S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.9S 45.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.5S 43.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.3S 43.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.5S 43.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 48.4E.
22FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 221929
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/5/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 22/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.5 S / 48.7 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 959 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 52 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 500 SO: 390 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 350 SO: 295 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 110 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 55 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/02/2022 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 500 SO: 400 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SO: 220 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 23/02/2022 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 520 SO: 415 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SO: 240 NO: 150

36H: 24/02/2022 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 535 SO: 435 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 335 SO: 260 NO: 150

48H: 24/02/2022 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 555 SO: 455 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SO: 280 NO: 150

60H: 25/02/2022 06 UTC: 30.6 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 585 SO: 480 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 370 SO: 295 NO: 150

72H: 25/02/2022 18 UTC: 32.1 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 600 SO: 500 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 400 SO: 305 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/02/2022 18 UTC: 33.8 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 650 SO: 535 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 435 SO: 345 NO: 150

120H: 27/02/2022 18 UTC: 37.6 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 685 SO: 585 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SO: 380 NO: 150

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5 CI=5.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA STRUCTURE A DOUBLE OEIL D'EMNATI
EST DEVENUE DE MOINS EN MOINS NETTE. L'ANALYSE DE L'IMAGERIE
SATELLITAIRE INFRAROUGE ET DES DERNIERES MICRO-ONDES (GMI 1358Z,
SSMIS 1546Z) MET EN EVIDENCE UNE DESORGANISATION DU MUR EXTERNE MAIS
AU CONTRAIRE UN RENFORCEMENT DE L'ANNEAU CONVECTIF INTERNE, QUI A
FAIT PREUVE JUSQU'ICI D'UNE RESISTANCE REMARQUABLE, AVEC MEME DES
SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI SE SONT REFROIDIS JUSTE AVANT 18UTC. DE PLUS, UNE
PASSE SMAP A 1509Z MONTRE DES VENTS A 78KT ET UNE STRUCTURE PLUS
COMPACTE QU'IL Y A 24 HEURES. CES DONNEES INDIQUENT UNE PROBABLE
RECONTRACTION DU RAYON DE VENTS MAXIMAUX ET UNE LEGERE
INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME A L'APPROCHE DES COTES MALGACHES, REMONTEE
ICI A 80 KT POUR TENIR COMPTE DE L'EVOLUTION RECENTE DE LA
CONFIGURATION DU CYCLONE, MEME SI UNE MARGE D'ERREUR IMPORTANTE RESTE
PRESENTE SUR L'INTENSITE EXACTE, EN L'ABSENCE D'AUTRES DONNEES
D'OBSERVATION. A 18UTC, LE CENTRE D'EMNATI N'EST QU'A 40 KM DE LA
COTE MALGACHE, CE QUI SIGNIFIE QUE LA PARTIE OUEST DU MUR DE L'OEIL
AFFECTE DEJA LES TERRES. LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST EST
EXTREMEMENT MENACANTE POUR LA REGION DE MANAKARA, QUI SERA
PROBABLEMENT FRAPPEE DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES PAR LA PARTIE LA PLUS
DANGEREUSE DU MUR DE L'OEIL.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE: LE DEPLACEMENT
D'EMNATI RESTE ORIENTE AU SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. LE CENTRE DU CYCLONE DEVRAIT
TOUCHER TERRE VERS 21UTC AU NORD IMMEDIAT DE MANAKARA, EXPOSANT DONC
LA REGION DE MANAKARA A LA ZONE LA PLUS VIOLENTE DU SYSTEME, SITUEE
AU SUD IMMEDIAT DE L'OEIL. EMNATI DEVRAIT ENSUITE TRAVERSER LES
TERRES MALGACHES ET RESSORTIR EN MER AU SUD DE LA GRANDE ILE DURANT
LA NUIT DE MERCREDI A JEUDI. LE SYSTEME VA ENSUITE S'EVACUER
LENTEMENT VERS LES LATITUDES EXTRATROPICALES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, C'EST UN ATTERRISSAGE AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMES A 80 KT QUI SE CONFIRME (LEGERE
INTENSIFICATION JUSTE AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE). ENTRE MERCREDI SOIR ET
JEUDI, EMNATI DEVRAIT RESSORTIR EN MER A UN STADE AFFAIBLI DE TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC UNE CIRCULATION ASSEZ LARGE. AVEC UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE AU LARGE DU SUD DE MADAGASCAR, PUIS LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT ET UNE ADVECTION D'AIR PLUS SEC PAR LE NORD, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT DEVENIR POST-TROPICAL A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE
JEUDI A VENDREDI, MAIS EN GARDANT DES VENTS MAXIMAUX DE L'ORDRE DE
45/50 KT PAR LA SUITE EN LIEN AVEC DES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR MADAGASCAR :
-ENMATI VA TOUCHER TERRE AUTOUR DE 21UTC AU NIVEAU DE LA PROVINCE DE
FIANARANTSOA A PLUS DE 60 KM AU SUD DE MANANJARY ET A SEULEMENT 20-40
KM AU NORD DE MANAKARA. EMNATI EST UN CYCLONE DANGEREUX SUSCEPTIBLE
DE PROVOQUER DES DEGATS CONSIDERABLES SUR LES ZONES AFFECTEES:
-VENTS: PRES DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT (INCLUANT LA VILLE DE MANAKARA) ET
JUSQU'A 100-150 KM AU SUD DU CENTRE, IL FAUT CRAINDRE DES RAFALES
DESTRUCTRICES ENTRE 150 ET 200 KM/H.
-PLUIES: DES CUMULS DE PLUIES TRES IMPORTANTS SONT ATTENDUS LE LONG
ET EN BORDURE SUD DE LA TRAJECTOIRE, DE L'ORDRE DE 150-300 MM EN 24H
EN PLAINE ET 300-600 MM SUR LE RELIEF. CES FORTES PLUIES PEUVENT
CREER D'IMPORTANTES INONDATIONS ET DES GLISSEMENTS DE TERRAIN.
-MER: LA COMBINAISON D'UNE HOULE CYCLONIQUE ASSOCIEE A DES VAGUES
PROCHES DE 10 METRES AU LARGE ET D'UNE SURELEVATION DU NIVEAU DE LA
MER D'ENVIRON 1M, PEUT GENERER DES SUBMERSIONS IMPORTANTES SUR LES
REGIONS COTIERES SITUEES AU SUD DU CENTRE (JUSQU'A 100-150 KM AU SUD
DU CENTRE).
-LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A UNE EXTREME PRUDENCE ET A SUIVRE LES
CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 221929
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5 S / 48.7 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 959 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 52 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 500 SW: 390 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 350 SW: 295 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/23 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 500 SW: 400 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2022/02/23 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 520 SW: 415 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 150

36H: 2022/02/24 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 535 SW: 435 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 335 SW: 260 NW: 150

48H: 2022/02/24 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 555 SW: 455 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 150

60H: 2022/02/25 06 UTC: 30.6 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 585 SW: 480 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 370 SW: 295 NW: 150

72H: 2022/02/25 18 UTC: 32.1 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 600 SW: 500 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 400 SW: 305 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/26 18 UTC: 33.8 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 650 SW: 535 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 435 SW: 345 NW: 150

120H: 2022/02/27 18 UTC: 37.6 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 685 SW: 585 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SW: 380 NW: 150

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=5.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, EMNATI'S DOUBLE EYE STRUCTURE HAS BECOME
LESS AND LESS CLEAR. ANALYSIS OF INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OF
THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES (GMI 1358Z, SSMIS 1546Z) SHOWS A
DISORGANIZATION OF THE OUTER WALL BUT ON THE CONTRARY A REINFORCEMENT
OF THE INNER CONVECTIVE CORE, WHICH HAS BEEN REMARKABLY RESISTANT
UNTIL NOW, WITH EVEN CLOUD TOPS THAT HAVE COOLED JUST BEFORE 18UTC.
MOREOVER, A 1509Z SMAP PASS SHOWS WINDS UP TO 78KT AND A MORE COMPACT
STRUCTURE THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THESE DATA INDICATE A PROBABLE
CONTRACTION OF THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE MALAGASY COAST.
MAX WINDS ARE THUS RAISED UP TO 80 KT TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT
EVOLUTION, EVEN IF A LARGE MARGIN OF ERROR REMAINS ON THE EXACT
INTENSITY, IN THE ABSENCE OF OTHER OBSERVATIONAL DATA. AT 18UTC, THE
CENTER OF EMNATI IS ONLY 40 KM FROM THE MALAGASY COAST, WHICH MEANS
THAT THE WESTERN PART OF THE EYEWALL ALREADY AFFECTS THE LAND. THE
SOUTH-WESTERN TRAJECTORY IS EXTREMELY THREATENING FOR THE MANAKARA
AREA, WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE HIT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BY THE MOST
DANGEROUS PART OF THE EYEWALL.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST: EMNATI KEEPS A SOUTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 21UTC
IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF MANAKARA, EXPOSING THE MANAKARA AREA TO THE MOST
VIOLENT PART OF THE CYCLONE, LOCATED TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH OF THE
EYE. EMNATI SHOULD THEN CROSS THE MALAGASY LANDS AND GO OUT TO SEA
SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE NIGHT OF WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN EVACUATE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EXTRATROPICAL
LATITUDES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, LANDFALL AT TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS
CONFIRMED, WITH MAX WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80 KT (SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
JUST BEFORE LANDFALL). BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY, EMNATI
SHOULD EMERGE AT SEA AT A WEAKENED STAGE OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
WITH A FAIRLY LARGE CIRCULATION. WITH DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL
OFF THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, THEN THE INCREASE OF WIND SHEAR AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
PROGRESSIVELY BECOME POST-TROPICAL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
BUT WILL THEREAFTER STILL KEEP MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 45/50 KT THANKS
TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR :
-ENMATI WILL MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 21UTC OVER FIANARANTSOA PROVINCE,
MORE THAN 60 KM SOUTH OF MANANJARY AND ONLY 20-40 KM NORTH OF
MANAKARA. EMNATI IS A DANGEROUS CYCLONE LIKELY TO CAUSE HEAVY DAMAGE
TO THE AFFECTED AREAS:
-WINDS: DESTRUCTIVE GUSTS BETWEEN 150 AND 200 KM/H ARE TO BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE IMPACT AREA (INCLUDING THE CITY OF MANAKARA) AND ALSO
EXTENDING 100-150 KM SOUTH OF THE CENTER,
-RAINFALL: VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK AND ITS
SOUTHERN EDGE, IN THE ORDER OF 150-300 MM IN 24 HOURS IN THE LOWLANDS
AND 300-600 MM ON THE NEARBY HILLS AND MOUNTAINS. THESE HEAVY RAINS
CAN CREATE IMPORTANT FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES.
-SEA: THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES CLOSE
TO 10 METERS OFFSHORE AND A RISE IN SEA LEVEL OF ABOUT 1M CAN
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON THE COASTAL AREAS LOCATED SOUTH OF
THE CENTER (UP TO 100-150 KM SOUTH OF THE CENTER).
-INHABITANTS ARE ADVISED TO EXTREME CAUTION AND TO FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 221841
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/5/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 22/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.5 S / 48.7 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 959 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 52 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 500 SO: 390 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 350 SO: 295 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 110 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 55 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/02/2022 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 500 SO: 400 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SO: 220 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 23/02/2022 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 520 SO: 415 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SO: 240 NO: 150

36H: 24/02/2022 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 535 SO: 435 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 335 SO: 260 NO: 150

48H: 24/02/2022 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 555 SO: 455 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SO: 280 NO: 150

60H: 25/02/2022 06 UTC: 30.6 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 585 SO: 480 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 370 SO: 295 NO: 150

72H: 25/02/2022 18 UTC: 32.1 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 600 SO: 500 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 400 SO: 305 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/02/2022 18 UTC: 33.8 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 650 SO: 535 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 435 SO: 345 NO: 150

120H: 27/02/2022 18 UTC: 37.6 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 685 SO: 585 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SO: 380 NO: 150

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5 CI=5.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA STRUCTURE A DOUBLE OEIL D'EMNATI
EST DEVENUE DE MOINS EN MOINS NETTE. L'ANALYSE DE L'IMAGERIE
SATELLITAIRE INFRAROUGE ET DES DERNIERES MICRO-ONDES (GMI 1358Z,
SSMIS 1546Z) MET EN EVIDENCE UNE DESORGANISATION DU MUR EXTERNE MAIS
AU CONTRAIRE UN RENFORCEMENT DE L'ANNEAU CONVECTIF INTERNE, QUI A
FAIT PREUVE JUSQU'ICI D'UNE RESISTANCE REMARQUABLE, AVEC MEME DES
SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI SE SONT REFROIDIS JUSTE AVANT 18UTC. DE PLUS, UNE
PASSE SMAP A 1509Z MONTRE DES VENTS A 78KT ET UNE STRUCTURE PLUS
COMPACTE QU'IL Y A 24 HEURES. CES DONNEES INDIQUENT UNE PROBABLE
RECONTRACTION DU RAYON DE VENTS MAXIMAUX ET UNE LEGERE
INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME A L'APPROCHE DES COTES MALGACHES, REMONTEE
ICI A 80 KT POUR TENIR COMPTE DE L'EVOLUTION RECENTE DE LA
CONFIGURATION DU CYCLONE, MEME SI UNE MARGE D'ERREUR IMPORTANTE RESTE
PRESENTE SUR L'INTENSITE EXACTE, EN L'ABSENCE D'AUTRES DONNEES
D'OBSERVATION. A 18UTC, LE CENTRE D'EMNATI N'EST QU'A 40 KM DE LA
COTE MALGACHE, CE QUI SIGNIFIE QUE LA PARTIE OUEST DU MUR DE L'OEIL
AFFECTE DEJA LES TERRES. LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST EST
EXTREMEMENT MENACANTE POUR LA REGION DE MANAKARA, QUI SERA
PROBABLEMENT FRAPPEE DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES PAR LA PARTIE LA PLUS
DANGEREUSE DU MUR DE L'OEIL.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE: LE DEPLACEMENT
D'EMNATI RESTE ORIENTE AU SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. LE CENTRE DU CYCLONE DEVRAIT
TOUCHER TERRE VERS 21UTC AU NORD IMMEDIAT DE MANAKARA, EXPOSANT DONC
LA REGION DE MANAKARA A LA ZONE LA PLUS VIOLENTE DU SYSTEME, SITUEE
AU SUD IMMEDIAT DE L'OEIL. EMNATI DEVRAIT ENSUITE TRAVERSER LES
TERRES MALGACHES ET RESSORTIR EN MER AU SUD DE LA GRANDE ILE DURANT
LA NUIT DE MERCREDI A JEUDI. LE SYSTEME VA ENSUITE S'EVACUER
LENTEMENT VERS LES LATITUDES EXTRATROPICALES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, C'EST UN ATTERRISSAGE AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMES A 80 KT QUI SE CONFIRME (LEGERE
INTENSIFICATION JUSTE AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE). ENTRE MERCREDI SOIR ET
JEUDI, EMNATI DEVRAIT RESSORTIR EN MER A UN STADE AFFAIBLI DE TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC UNE CIRCULATION ASSEZ LARGE. AVEC UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE AU LARGE DU SUD DE MADAGASCAR, PUIS LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT ET UNE ADVECTION D'AIR PLUS SEC PAR LE NORD, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT DEVENIR POST-TROPICAL A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE
JEUDI A VENDREDI, MAIS EN GARDANT DES VENTS MAXIMAUX DE L'ORDRE DE
45/50 KT PAR LA SUITE EN LIEN AVEC DES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR MADAGASCAR :
-ENMATI VA TOUCHER TERRE AUTOUR DE 21UTC AU NIVEAU DE LA PROVINCE DE
FIANARANTSOA A PLUS DE 60 KM AU SUD DE MANANJARY ET A SEULEMENT 20-40
KM AU NORD DE MANAKARA. EMNATI EST UN CYCLONE DANGEREUX SUSCEPTIBLE
DE PROVOQUER DES DEGATS CONSIDERABLES SUR LES ZONES AFFECTEES:
-VENTS: PRES DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT (INCLUANT LA VILLE DE MANAKARA) ET
JUSQU'A 100-150 KM AU SUD DU CENTRE, IL FAUT CRAINDRE DES RAFALES
DESTRUCTRICES ENTRE 150 ET 200 KM/H.
-PLUIES: DES CUMULS DE PLUIES TRES IMPORTANTS SONT ATTENDUS LE LONG
ET EN BORDURE SUD DE LA TRAJECTOIRE, DE L'ORDRE DE 150-300 MM EN 24H
EN PLAINE ET 300-600 MM SUR LE RELIEF. CES FORTES PLUIES PEUVENT
CREER D'IMPORTANTES INONDATIONS ET DES GLISSEMENTS DE TERRAIN.
-MER: LA COMBINAISON D'UNE HOULE CYCLONIQUE ASSOCIEE A DES VAGUES
PROCHES DE 10 METRES AU LARGE ET D'UNE SURELEVATION DU NIVEAU DE LA
MER D'ENVIRON 1M, PEUT GENERER DES SUBMERSIONS IMPORTANTES SUR LES
REGIONS COTIERES SITUEES AU SUD DU CENTRE (JUSQU'A 100-150 KM AU SUD
DU CENTRE).
-LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A UNE EXTREME PRUDENCE ET A SUIVRE LES
CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 221841
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5 S / 48.7 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 959 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 52 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 500 SW: 390 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 350 SW: 295 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/23 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 500 SW: 400 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2022/02/23 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 520 SW: 415 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 150

36H: 2022/02/24 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 535 SW: 435 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 335 SW: 260 NW: 150

48H: 2022/02/24 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 555 SW: 455 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 150

60H: 2022/02/25 06 UTC: 30.6 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 585 SW: 480 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 370 SW: 295 NW: 150

72H: 2022/02/25 18 UTC: 32.1 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 600 SW: 500 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 400 SW: 305 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/26 18 UTC: 33.8 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 650 SW: 535 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 435 SW: 345 NW: 150

120H: 2022/02/27 18 UTC: 37.6 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 685 SW: 585 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SW: 380 NW: 150

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=5.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE DOUBLE EYE STRUCTURE OF EMNATI HAS
BECOME LESS AND LESS CLEAR. THE ANALYSIS OF THE INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND OF THE LAST MICROWAVES (GMI 1358Z, SSMIS 1546Z) SHOWS A
DISORGANIZATION OF THE OUTER WALL BUT ON THE CONTRARY A REINFORCEMENT
OF THE INNER CONVECTIVE RING, WHICH HAS BEEN REMARKABLY RESISTANT
UNTIL NOW, WITH EVEN CLOUD TOPS THAT HAVE COOLED DOWN JUST BEFORE
18UTC. MOREOVER, A 1509Z SMAP PASS SHOWS WINDS UP TO 78KT AND A MORE
COMPACT STRUCTURE THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THESE DATA INDICATE A PROBABLE
CONTRACTION OF THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE MALAGASY COAST.
MAX WINDS ARE THUS RAISED UP TO 80 KT TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT
EVOLUTION, EVEN IF A LARGE MARGIN OF ERROR REMAINS ON THE EXACT
INTENSITY, IN THE ABSENCE OF OTHER OBSERVATIONAL DATA. AT 18UTC, THE
CENTER OF EMNATI IS ONLY 40 KM FROM THE MALAGASY COAST, WHICH MEANS
THAT THE WESTERN PART OF THE EYEWALL ALREADY AFFECTS THE LAND. THE
SOUTH-WESTERN TRAJECTORY IS EXTREMELY THREATENING FOR THE MANAKARA
AREA, WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE HIT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BY THE MOST
DANGEROUS PART OF THE EYEWALL.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST: EMNATI KEEPS A SOUTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 21UTC
IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF MANAKARA, EXPOSING THE MANAKARA AREA TO THE MOST
VIOLENT PART OF THE CYCLONE, LOCATED TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH OF THE
EYE. EMNATI SHOULD THEN CROSS THE MALAGASY LANDS AND GO OUT TO SEA
SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE NIGHT OF WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN EVACUATE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EXTRATROPICAL
LATITUDES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, LANDFALL AT TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS
CONFIRMED, WITH MAX WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80 KT (SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
JUST BEFORE LANDFALL). BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY, EMNATI
SHOULD EMERGE AT SEA AT A WEAKENED STAGE OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
WITH A FAIRLY LARGE CIRCULATION. WITH DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL
OFF THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, THEN THE INCREASE OF WIND SHEAR AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
PROGRESSIVELY BECOME POST-TROPICAL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
BUT WILL THEREAFTER STILL KEEP MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 45/50 KT THANKS
TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR :
-ENMATI WILL MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 21UTC OVER FIANARANTSOA PROVINCE,
MORE THAN 60 KM SOUTH OF MANANJARY AND ONLY 20-40 KM NORTH OF
MANAKARA. EMNATI IS A DANGEROUS CYCLONE LIKELY TO CAUSE HEAVY DAMAGE
TO THE AFFECTED AREAS:
-WINDS: DESTRUCTIVE GUSTS BETWEEN 150 AND 200 KM/H ARE TO BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE IMPACT AREA (INCLUDING THE CITY OF MANAKARA) AND ALSO
EXTENDING 100-150 KM SOUTH OF THE CENTER,
-RAINFALL: VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK AND ITS
SOUTHERN EDGE, IN THE ORDER OF 150-300 MM IN 24 HOURS IN THE LOWLANDS
AND 300-600 MM ON THE NEARBY HILLS AND MOUNTAINS. THESE HEAVY RAINS
CAN CREATE IMPORTANT FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES.
-SEA: THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES CLOSE
TO 10 METERS OFFSHORE AND A RISE IN SEA LEVEL OF ABOUT 1M CAN
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON THE COASTAL AREAS LOCATED SOUTH OF
THE CENTER (UP TO 100-150 KM SOUTH OF THE CENTER).
-INHABITANTS ARE ADVISED TO EXTREME CAUTION AND TO FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 221817
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/02/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 22/02/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI) 959 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5 S / 48.7 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND
UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 210 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/23 AT 06 UTC:
22.7 S / 47.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 NM SE: 270 NM SW: 215 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 0 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/23 AT 18 UTC:
25.1 S / 44.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 NM SE: 280 NM SW: 225 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 80 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 221226
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 30/5/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 22/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.8 S / 49.5 E
(VINGT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 480 SO: 350 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SO: 315 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SO: 170 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 85 NO: 85

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/02/2022 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 480 SO: 155 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 23/02/2022 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 465 SO: 280 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SO: 195 NO: 0

36H: 24/02/2022 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 520 SO: 315 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SO: 215 NO: 220

48H: 24/02/2022 12 UTC: 27.4 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 470 SO: 270 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SO: 175 NO: 250

60H: 25/02/2022 00 UTC: 29.3 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 530 SO: 345 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 360 SO: 230 NO: 240

72H: 25/02/2022 12 UTC: 31.1 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 520 SO: 465 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SO: 360 NO: 250

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/02/2022 12 UTC: 33.3 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 630 SO: 555 NO: 415
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 435 SO: 400 NO: 285
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 165 NO: 35

120H: 27/02/2022 12 UTC: 35.9 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 480 SO: 285 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 360 SO: 220 NO: 240

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0+ CI=5.0

AU COURS DES DERNIRES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGUEUSE A MIS
ENCORE EN EVIDENCE LA STRUCTURE A DOUBLE OEIL DE EMNATI, HERITEE DU
CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL ENTAME DEPUIS DIMANCHE
APRES-MIDI MAIS QUI N'ARRIVE PAS A SE TERMINER. L'OEIL INTERNE, BIEN
QUE N'ETANT PLUS ASSOCIE AUX VENTS MAXIMUMS, FAIT DE LA RESISTANCE,
AVEC L'APPARITION D'UNE BOUFFEE DE CONVECTION JUSTE AVANT 11 UTC.
CETTE CONFIGURATION ORIGINALE AYANT PEU EVOLUE DEPUIS CE MATIN,
L'INTENSITE EST INCHANGEE ET IL EST TRES PROBABLE QUE EMNATI PLAFONNE
A CETTE INTENSITE. LA BORDURE OUEST DU RAYON DE VENT MAX DEVRAIT EN
EFFET ABORDER LES COTES EST DE MADAGASCAR DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE: LE DEPLACEMENT
D'EMNATI RESTE ORIENTE AU SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST
BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS MAINTENANT ASSEZ STABLE DE PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE AVEC UNE CONFIANCE A LA HAUSSE SUR LE CIBLAGE DE LA ZONE
D'IMPACT QUI VA INTERVENIR D'ICI UN PEU PLUS DE 6H (POUR L'ARRIVEE DU
CENTRE). EMNATI DEVRAIT ENSUITE RESSORTIR EN MER AU SUD DE LA GRANDE
ILE DURANT LA NUIT DE MERCREDI A JEUDI. LE SYSTEME VA ENSUITE
S'EVACUER LENTEMENT VERS LES LATITUDES EXTRATROPICALES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, MALGRE DES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES
FAVORABLES, EMNATI N'ARRIVE PAS A S'INTENSIFIER. UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE INSUFFISANT (ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME PASSE SUR DES EAUX
REFROIDIES PAR BATSIRAI) ET UNE STRUCTURE DE VENTS EXOTIQUE AVEC UN
ERC INACHEVE, SEMBLENT ETRE LES RAISONS PRINCIPALES D'UNE LIMITATION
DE L'INTENSITE. ENTRE MERCREDI SOIR ET JEUDI, EMNATI DEVRAIT
RESSORTIR EN MER A UN STADE AFFAIBLI ET AVEC UN CENTRE MAL DEFINI.
LES CONDITIONS NE DEVRAIENT PAS ETRE FAVORABLES A UNE
RE-INTENSIFICATION AVEC DES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES. DES
JEUDI SOIR, UNE INTERACTION AVEC LE JET DEVRAIT INDUIRE ASSEZ
RAPIDEMENT UN DEBUT DE TRANSITION EXTRA-TROPICALE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- MADAGASCAR : ENMATI VA TOUCHER TERRE LA NUIT PROCHAINE (PEU APRES
18 UTC) AU NIVEAU DE LA PROVINCE DE FIANARANTSOA ENTRE MANANJARY ET
MANAKARA. MEME SI LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST A LA BAISSE, EMNATI
RESTE UN CYCLONE LARGE ET DANGEREUX SUSCEPTIBLE DE PROVOQUER DES
DEGATS CONSIDERABLES SUR LES ZONES AFFECTEES:
-VENTS: PRES DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT ET JUSQU'A 100-150 KM AU SUD DU
CENTRE, IL FAUT CRAINDRE DES RAFALES DESTRUCTRICES ENTRE 150 ET 200
KM/H.
-PLUIES: DES CUMULS DE PLUIES TRES IMPORTANTS SONT ATTENDUS LE LONG
DE LA TRAJECTOIRE, DE L'ORDRE DE 150-250 MM EN 24H EN PLAINE ET
JUSQU'A 400-500 MM SUR LE RELIEF. CES FORTES PLUIES PEUVENT CREER
D'IMPORTANTES INONDATIONS ET DES GLISSEMENTS DE TERRAIN SUR LA
REGION.
-MER: LA COMBINAISON D'UNE HOULE CYCLONIQUE ASSOCIEE A DES VAGUES
PROCHES DE 10 METRES AU LARGE ET D'UNE SURELEVATION DU NIVEAU DE LA
MER D'ENVIRON 1M, PEUT GENERER DES SUBMERSIONS IMPORTANTES SUR LES
REGIONS COTIERES SITUEES AU SUD DU CENTRE (JUSQU'A 100-150 KM AU SUD
DU CENTRE).

LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE CE
SYSTEME ET A SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 221226
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8 S / 49.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 480 SW: 350 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SW: 315 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 170 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/23 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 480 SW: 155 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2022/02/23 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 465 SW: 280 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SW: 195 NW: 0

36H: 2022/02/24 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 520 SW: 315 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SW: 215 NW: 220

48H: 2022/02/24 12 UTC: 27.4 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 470 SW: 270 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SW: 175 NW: 250

60H: 2022/02/25 00 UTC: 29.3 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 530 SW: 345 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 360 SW: 230 NW: 240

72H: 2022/02/25 12 UTC: 31.1 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 520 SW: 465 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SW: 360 NW: 250

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/26 12 UTC: 33.3 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 630 SW: 555 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 435 SW: 400 NW: 285
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 35

120H: 2022/02/27 12 UTC: 35.9 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 480 SW: 285 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 360 SW: 220 NW: 240

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0+ CI=5.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS AGAIN HIGHLIGHTED THE
DOUBLE EYE STRUCTURE OF EMNATI, INHERITED FROM THE CYCLE OF
REPLACEMENT OF THE EYE WALL STARTED SINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT WHICH
CAN'T BE FINISHED. THE INNER EYE, ALTHOUGH NO LONGER ASSOCIATED WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS, IS RESISTING, WITH THE APPEARANCE OF A BURST OF
CONVECTION JUST BEFORE 11 UTC. THIS ORIGINAL CONFIGURATION HAVING
CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING, THE INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED AND IT
IS VERY LIKELY THAT EMNATI WILL PEAK AT THIS INTENSITY. THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE MAXIMUM WIND RADIUS SHOULD INDEED SCRATCH THE EASTERN
COASTS OF MADAGASCAR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST: THE MOVEMENT OF EMNATI REMAINS TO
THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A NOW QUITE STABLE
CONSENSUS OF TRACK FORECAST WITH AN INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON THE
TARGETING OF THE IMPACT AREA WHICH WILL OCCUR IN A LITTLE MORE THAN
6H (FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER). EMNATI SHOULD THEN EMERGE IN THE
SEA SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR DURING THE NIGHT OF WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN SLOWLY EVACUATE TOWARDS THE EXTRATROPICAL
LATITUDES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, IN SPITE OF FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS,
EMNATI DOES NOT MANAGE TO INTENSIFY. AN INSUFFICIENT OCEANIC
POTENTIAL (AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER WATERS COOLED BY BATSIRAI) AND
AN EXOTIC WIND STRUCTURE WITH AN INCOMPLETE ERC, SEEM TO BE THE MAIN
REASONS FOR A LIMITATION OF THE INTENSITY. BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND THURSDAY, EMNATI SHOULD EMERGE AT SEA IN A WEAKENED STATE AND
WITH AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER. CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR A
RE-INTENSIFICATION WITH PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. FROM
THURSDAY EVENING, AN INTERACTION WITH THE JET SHOULD INDUCE RATHER
QUICKLY THE BEGINNING OF AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- MADAGASCAR : ENMATI WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEXT NIGHT (SHORTLY AFTER 18
UTC) IN THE PROVINCE OF FIANARANTSOA BETWEEN MANANJARY AND MANAKARA.
EVEN IF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWER, EMNATI REMAINS A LARGE AND
DANGEROUS CYCLONE LIKELY TO CAUSE CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE IN THE AFFECTED
AREAS:
-WINDS: NEAR THE IMPACT AREA AND UP TO 100-150 KM SOUTH OF THE
CENTER, DESTRUCTIVE GUSTS BETWEEN 150 AND 200 KM/H ARE TO BE
EXPECTED.
-RAIN: VERY IMPORTANT RAINFALL CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
TRAJECTORY, OF THE ORDER OF 150-250 MM IN 24H IN THE PLAIN AND UP TO
400-500 MM ON THE RELIEF. THESE HEAVY RAINS CAN CREATE IMPORTANT
FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES IN THE REGION.
-SEA: THE COMBINATION OF A CYCLONIC SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES CLOSE
TO 10 METERS OFFSHORE AND A SEA LEVEL RISE OF ABOUT 1M, MAY GENERATE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN COASTAL AREAS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CENTER (UP
TO 100-150 KM SOUTH OF THE CENTER).

THE INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM AND TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 221203
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/02/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 029/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 22/02/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8 S / 49.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 260 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/23 AT 00 UTC:
22.0 S / 47.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 225 NM SE: 260 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM
48 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/23 AT 12 UTC:
24.1 S / 46.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 250 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 19.8S 50.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 50.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.3S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.8S 47.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.6S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.7S 43.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 32.2S 43.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 49.9E.
22FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 167 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 220600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z AND 230900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 220900
WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 220222064056
2022022206 13S EMNATI 013 01 230 11 SATL 010
T000 198S 0503E 080 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 165 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 213S 0486E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 228S 0470E 060 R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 246S 0453E 050 R050 000 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 267S 0437E 050 R050 020 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 322S 0434E 045 R034 220 NE QD 240 SE QD 180 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 19.8S 50.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 50.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.3S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.8S 47.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.6S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.7S 43.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 32.2S 43.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 49.9E.
22FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 167 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 220600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z AND 230900Z.//
1322021418 145S 793E 20
1322021500 146S 773E 20
1322021506 144S 755E 20
1322021512 143S 738E 25
1322021518 142S 720E 30
1322021600 141S 708E 30
1322021606 140S 701E 30
1322021612 140S 692E 30
1322021618 141S 684E 35
1322021700 141S 674E 45
1322021706 140S 658E 50
1322021706 140S 658E 50
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021800 137S 633E 55
1322021800 137S 633E 55
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
1322022012 176S 552E 115
1322022012 176S 552E 115
1322022012 176S 552E 115
1322022018 176S 546E 110
1322022018 176S 546E 110
1322022018 176S 546E 110
1322022100 176S 540E 105
1322022100 176S 540E 105
1322022100 176S 540E 105
1322022106 179S 535E 100
1322022106 179S 535E 100
1322022106 179S 535E 100
1322022112 182S 527E 100
1322022112 182S 527E 100
1322022112 182S 527E 100
1322022118 185S 521E 95
1322022118 185S 521E 95
1322022118 185S 521E 95
1322022200 191S 512E 90
1322022200 191S 512E 90
1322022200 191S 512E 90
1322022206 198S 503E 80
1322022206 198S 503E 80
1322022206 198S 503E 80
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 220645
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 29/5/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 22/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.0 S / 50.3 E
(VINGT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 480 SO: 350 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SO: 315 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SO: 170 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 85 NO: 85

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/02/2022 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 520 SO: 175 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 335 SO: 150 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SO: 130 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 23/02/2022 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 555 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 335 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 23/02/2022 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 490 SO: 345 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SO: 230 NO: 215

48H: 24/02/2022 06 UTC: 26.3 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 510 SO: 325 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SO: 240 NO: 230

60H: 24/02/2022 18 UTC: 28.1 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 520 SO: 370 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SO: 270 NO: 230

72H: 25/02/2022 06 UTC: 29.6 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 535 SO: 435 NO: 380
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 360 SO: 345 NO: 260
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/02/2022 06 UTC: 31.9 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 575 SO: 535 NO: 445
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 390 SO: 350 NO: 295
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 130

120H: 27/02/2022 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 600 SO: 445 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 415 SO: 315 NO: 230

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0+ CI=5.0

AU COURS DES DERNIRES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE EMNATI
S'EST DEGRADEE AVEC UN OEIL PERDANT EN DEFINITION ASSOCIE A DES
SOMMETS NUAGEUX MOINS FROIDS. UNE PASS SAR S1 A 0203Z CE MATIN A
PERMIS DE PRECISER L'INTENSITE ET LA STRUCTURE DU CYCLONE ET SERT DE
BASE A LA PRESENTE ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE.

LE DEPLACEMENT D'EMNATI RESTE ORIENTE AU SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS MAINTENANT ASSEZ STABLE DE
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE AVEC UNE CONFIANCE A LA HAUSSE SUR LE
CIBLAGE DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT QUI VA INTERVENIR D'ICI UN PEU PLUS D'UNE
DOUZAINE D'HEURES. EMNATI DEVRAIT ENSUITE RESSORTIR EN MER AU SUD DE
LA GRANDE ILE EN NUIT DE MERCREDI A JEUDI. UNE PETITE FAIBLESSE DES
HAUTS GA OPOTENTIELS AU SUD-OUEST ET UN RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE
PLUS A L'EST DEVRAIT FAIRE LENTEMENT DERIVER LE SYSTEME VERS LE SUD,
FRANCHISSANT LE 30E PARALLELE VENDREDI, MAIS SANS EVACUATION RAPIDE
VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES EN RAISON DU PASSSAGE A PARTIR DE SAMEDI
D'UNE CELLULE DE HAUTES PRESSIONS AU SUD DU SYSTEME.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, MALGRE DES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES
FAVORABLES, EMNATI N'ARRIVE PAS A S'INTENSIFIER. UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE INSUFFISANT (ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME PASSE SUR DES EAUX
REFROIDIES PAR BATSIRAI) ET UNE STRUCTURE DE VENTS EXOTIQUE AVEC UN
ERC INACHEVE, SEMBLENT ETRE LES RAISONS PRINCIPALES D'UNE LIMITATION
DE L'INTENSITE. ENTRE MERCREDI SOIR ET JEUDI, EMNATI DEVRAIT
RESSORTIR EN MER A UN STADE AFFAIBLI ET AVEC UN CENTRE MAL DEFINI.
LES CONDITIONS NE DEVRAIENT PAS ETRE FAVORABLES A UNE
RE-INTENSIFICATION AVEC DES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES. DES
JEUDI SOIR, UNE INTERACTION AVEC LE JET DEVRAIT INDUIRE ASSEZ
RAPIDEMENT UN DEBUT DE TRANSITION EXTRA-TROPICALE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- MADAGASCAR : ENMATI VA TOUCHER TERRE LA NUIT PROCHAINE (PEU APRES
18 UTC) AU NIVEAU DE LA PROVINCE DE FIANARANTSOA ENTRE MANANJARY ET
MANAKARA. MEME SI LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST A LA BAISSE, EMNATI
RESTE UN CYCLONE LARGE ET DANGEREUX SUSCEPTIBLE DE PROVOQUER DES
DEGATS CONSIDERABLES SUR LES ZONES AFFECTEES:
-VENTS: PRES DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT ET JUSQU'A 100-150 KM AU SUD DU
CENTRE, IL FAUT CRAINDRE DES RAFALES DESTRUCTRICES ENTRE 150 ET 200
KM/H.
-PLUIES: DES CUMULS DE PLUIES TRES IMPORTANTS SONT ATTENDUS LE LONG
DE LA TRAJECTOIRE, DE L'ORDRE DE 150-250 MM EN 24H EN PLAINE ET
JUSQU'A 400-500 MM SUR LE RELIEF. CES FORTES PLUIES PEUVENT CREER
D'IMPORTANTES INONDATIONS ET DES GLISSEMENTS DE TERRAIN SUR LA
REGION.
-MER: LA COMBINAISON D'UNE HOULE CYCLONIQUE ASSOCIEE A DES VAGUES
PROCHES DE 10 METRES AU LARGE ET D'UNE SURELEVATION DU NIVEAU DE LA
MER D'ENVIRON 1M, PEUT GENERER DES SUBMERSIONS IMPORTANTES SUR LES
REGIONS COTIERES SITUEES AU SUD DU CENTRE (JUSQU'A 100-150 KM AU SUD
DU CENTRE).

LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE CE
SYSTEME ET A SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 220645
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/22 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 50.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 480 SW: 350 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SW: 315 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 170 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/22 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 520 SW: 175 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 335 SW: 150 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 130 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2022/02/23 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 555 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 335 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2022/02/23 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 490 SW: 345 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 215

48H: 2022/02/24 06 UTC: 26.3 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 510 SW: 325 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SW: 240 NW: 230

60H: 2022/02/24 18 UTC: 28.1 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 520 SW: 370 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SW: 270 NW: 230

72H: 2022/02/25 06 UTC: 29.6 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 535 SW: 435 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 360 SW: 345 NW: 260
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/26 06 UTC: 31.9 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 575 SW: 535 NW: 445
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 390 SW: 350 NW: 295
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 130

120H: 2022/02/27 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 600 SW: 445 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 415 SW: 315 NW: 230

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0+ CI=5.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN OF EMNATI HAS DEGRADED WITH
AN EYE LOSING IN DEFINITION ASSOCIATED WITH LESS COLD CLOUD TOPS. A
SAR S1 PASS AT 0203Z THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED TO ASSESS THE INTENSITY
AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE AND IS USED AS A BASIS FOR THE
PRESENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE.

THE MOVEMENT OF EMNATI REMAINS SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON A NOW FAIRLY STABLE CONSENSUS TRACK FORECAST WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN THE TARGETING OF THE IMPACT ZONE WHICH WILL OCCUR IN A
LITTLE OVER A DOZEN HOURS. EMNATI SHOULD THEN MOVE BACK OVER SEAS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. A SMALL WEAKNESS OF THE HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND A STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE MORE
IN THE EAST SHOULD MAKE SLOWLY DRIFT THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTH,
CROSSING THE 30TH PARALLEL ON FRIDAY, BUT WITHOUT FAST EVACUATION
TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES BECAUSE OF THE PASSAGE FROM SATURDAY OF A
CELL OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DESPITE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS,
EMNATI IS UNABLE TO INTENSIFY. AN INSUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL (AS
THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER WATERS COOLED BY BATSIRAI) AND AN EXOTIC WIND
STRUCTURE WITH AN INCOMPLETE ERC, SEEM TO BE THE MAIN REASONS FOR A
LIMITATION OF THE INTENSITY. BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY,
EMNATI SHOULD EMERGE AT SEA IN A WEAKENED STATE AND WITH AN
ILL-DEFINED CENTER. CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR A
RE-INTENSIFICATION WITH PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. FROM
THURSDAY EVENING, AN INTERACTION WITH THE JET SHOULD INDUCE THE
BEGINNING OF AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- MADAGASCAR : ENMATI WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEXT NIGHT (SHORTLY AFTER 18
UTC) IN THE PROVINCE OF FIANARANTSOA BETWEEN MANANJARY AND MANAKARA.
EVEN IF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED, EMNATI REMAINS A LARGE AND
DANGEROUS CYCLONE LIKELY TO CAUSE CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE ON THE AFFECTED
AREAS:
-WINDS: NEAR THE IMPACT AREA AND UP TO 100-150 KM SOUTH OF THE
CENTER, DESTRUCTIVE GUSTS BETWEEN 150 AND 200 KM/H ARE TO BE
EXPECTED.
-RAIN: VERY IMPORTANT RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
TRAJECTORY, OF THE ORDER OF 150-250 MM IN 24 HOURS IN THE PLAIN AND
UP TO 400-500 MM ON THE RELIEF. THESE HEAVY RAINS CAN CREATE
IMPORTANT FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES IN THE REGION.
-SEA: THE COMBINATION OF A CYCLONIC SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES CLOSE
TO 10 METERS OFFSHORE AND A SEA LEVEL RISE OF ABOUT 1M, MAY GENERATE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN COASTAL AREAS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CENTER (UP
TO 100-150 KM SOUTH OF THE CENTER).

THE INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM AND TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 220625
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/02/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 22/02/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 50.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 260 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/22 AT 18 UTC:
21.4 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 235 NM SE: 280 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 100 NM
48 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 60 NM
64 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/23 AT 06 UTC:
22.7 S / 47.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 NM SE: 300 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM
48 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 220046
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/5/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 22/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.2 S / 51.3 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 958 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 465 SO: 350 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 190 NO: 165
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/02/2022 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 510 SO: 250 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SO: 195 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 75

24H: 23/02/2022 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 510 SO: 165 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SO: 140 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 120 NO: 95

36H: 23/02/2022 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 480 SO: 390 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 305 SO: 250 NO: 195

48H: 24/02/2022 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 500 SO: 305 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SO: 205 NO: 215

60H: 24/02/2022 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 470 SO: 325 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SO: 215 NO: 220

72H: 25/02/2022 00 UTC: 29.8 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 530 SO: 360 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SO: 270 NO: 250

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/02/2022 00 UTC: 32.8 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 520 SO: 470 NO: 405
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 360 SO: 350 NO: 270

120H: 27/02/2022 00 UTC: 34.6 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 655 SO: 510 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 455 SO: 335 NO: 260

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0

LE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL (ERC) DU CYCLONE EMNATI
SEMBLE DE TERMINER LENTEMENT : LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITAIRES
CLASSIQUES ET MICRO-ONDES DE 1344UTC MONTRENT EN EFFET UN MUR DE
L'OEIL INTERNE RESIDUEL BIEN ENTAME DANS SA PATRTIE NORD-OUEST
ENTOURE D'UN MUR EXTERNE DEVENANT PLUS SOLIDE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN
OEIL RESTE PEU PERTINENTE POUR EVALUER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME EN
RAISON DU PROCESSUS D'ERC EN COURS, NEANMOINS AVEC LES DONNEES DE LA
PASSE SMAP DE 1433UTC, L'INTENSITE ESTIMEE A 00UTC EST DE 80 KT.

LE DEPLACEMENT D'EMNATI PREND UN CAP VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN ACCELERANT,
SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. LES
MODELES RESTENT ASSEZ FORTEMENT DISPERSES CONCERNANT LA COMPOSANTE
PLUS OU MOINS SUD DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE DONC SUR LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR MARDI EN FIN DE JOURNA E OU SOIREE. SUR
CE POINT, LA TRAJECTOIRE CMRS FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIVERS
SCENARIOS. EMNATI DEVRAIT ENSUITE RESSORTIR EN MER AU SUD DE LA
GRANDE ILE EN NUIT DE MERCREDI A JEUDI. UNE PETITE FAIBLESSE DES
HAUTS GA OPOTENTIELS AU SUD-OUEST ET UN RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE
PLUS A L'EST DEVRAIT FAIRE LENTEMENT DERIVER LE SYSTEME VERS LE SUD,
FRANCHISSANT LE 30E PARALLELE VENDREDI, MAIS SANS EVACUATION RAPIDE
VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES EN RAISON DU PASSSAGE A PARTIR DE SAMEDI
D'UNE CELLULE DE HAUTES PRESSIONS AU SUD DU SYSTEME.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
FAVORABLES, AVEC UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT ET UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE, QUI SE POURSUIVRA MEME JUSQU'A JEUDI. APRES
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT TEMPORAIRE DU A L'ERC, EMNATI DEVRAIT MAINTENANT
REPRENDRE UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION ET AU FIL DE SA PROGRESSION
VERS LES COTES DE MADAGASCAR, RETROUVANT POTENTIELLEMENT LE STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE MARDI SOIR. ENTRE
MERCREDI SOIR ET JEUDI, EMNATI DEVRAIT RESSORTIR EN MER A UN STADE
AFFAIBLI ET AVEC UN CENTRE MAL CONSOLIDE, MAIS DEVRAIT CONNAITRE UNE
MODESTE RE-INTENSIFICATION AVANT D'EVOLUER EN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL
VENDREDI EN GAGNANT LES EAUX PLUS FROIDES ET SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE
HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT ET D'UNE ADVECTION D'AIR SEC SUR LE NORD DE LA
CIRCULATION.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- MADAGASCAR : EMNATI EST UN CYCLONE TRES DANGEREUX QUI DEVRAIT
ATTERRIR MARDI EN FIN DE JOURNEE OU SOIREE POTENTIELLEMENT AU STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE EST ENCORE
INCERTAINE MAIS LA PROBABILITE EST PLUS FORTE POUR LA PROVINCE DE
FIANARANTSOA, NOTAMMENT ENTRE MANANJARY ET FARAFANGANA. PRES DE LA
ZONE D'IMPACT, IL FAUT CRAINDRE DES RAFALES DESTRUCTRICES POUVANT
DEPASSER LES 200 KM/H, DES VAGUES PROCHES DE 10 METRES AU LARGE, UNE
SURELEVATION DU NIVEAU DE LA MER POUVANT ATTEINDRE AUTOUR D'1 METRE
ET DES PLUIES TRES INTENSES SUR LA REGION (JUSQU'A 200-400 MM EN
PLAINE ET PRES DE 500 MM SUR LE RELIEF EN 24 HEURES) POUVANT CREER
D'IMPORTANTES INONDATIONS. LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC
ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME ET A SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES
AUTORITES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 220046
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/22 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 51.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 465 SW: 350 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 190 NW: 165
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/22 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 510 SW: 250 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SW: 195 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 75

24H: 2022/02/23 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 510 SW: 165 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SW: 140 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 120 NW: 95

36H: 2022/02/23 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 480 SW: 390 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 195

48H: 2022/02/24 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 500 SW: 305 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SW: 205 NW: 215

60H: 2022/02/24 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 470 SW: 325 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SW: 215 NW: 220

72H: 2022/02/25 00 UTC: 29.8 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 530 SW: 360 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SW: 270 NW: 250

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/26 00 UTC: 32.8 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 520 SW: 470 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 360 SW: 350 NW: 270

120H: 2022/02/27 00 UTC: 34.6 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 655 SW: 510 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 455 SW: 335 NW: 260

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) OF CYCLONE EMNATI SEEMS TO END
SLOWLY : THE LAST CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM
1344UTC SHOW INDEED A RESIDUAL INNER EYEWALL WELL STARTED IN ITS
NORTH-WESTERN PART SURROUNDED BY AN OUTER WALL BECOMING STRONGER. THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS IN THE EYE IS NOT VERY RELEVANT TO EVALUATE THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM BECAUSE OF THE ONGOING ERC PROCESS,
NEVERTHELESS WITH THE SMAP PASS DATA OF 1433UTC, THE ESTIMATED
INTENSITY AT 00UTC IS 80 KT.

EMNATI'S MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST ACCELERATES, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
QUITE DISPERSED ABOUT THE MORE OR LESS SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF THIS
TRACK, AND THEREFORE ON THE LANDFALL AREA OVER MADAGASCAR ON TUESDAY
EVENING. ON THIS POINT, THE RSMC'S TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
VARIOUS AVAILABLE SCENARIOS. EMNATI SHOULD THEN EMERGE AT SEA SOUTH
OF MADAGASCAR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND A STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE
FURTHER EAST SHOULD MAKE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD, CROSSING
THE 30TH PARALLEL ON FRIDAY, BUT WITHOUT A QUICK EVACUATION TOWARDS
THE MID-LATITUDES BECAUSE OF THE PASSAGE FROM SATURDAY OF A CELL OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE,
WITH LOW WIND SHEAR AND VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WHICH WILL
EVEN CONTINUE UNTIL THURSDAY. AFTER THE TEMPORARY WEAKENING DUE TO
THE ERC, EMNATI SHOULD RESUME INTENSIFICATION FROM NOW AND AS IT
PROGRESSES TOWARDS MADAGASCAR, POTENTIALLY REGAINING INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, EMNATI SHOULD EMERGE AT SEA IN A FAIRLY WEAKENED STATE WITH
A POORLY CONSOLIDATED CENTER, BUT SHOULD EXPERIENCE A MODEST
RE-INTENSIFICATION BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY BY MOVING OVER COLDER SST AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING SHEAR AND DRY AIR ADVECTION OVER THE NORTH OFF THE
CIRCULATION.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- MADAGASCAR : EMNATI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE WHICH SHOULD MAKE
LANDFALL ON TUESDAY EVENING POTENTIALLY AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE LANDFALL AREA IS STILL UNCERTAIN, WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OVER THE FIANARANTSOA PROVINCE, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
MANANJARY AND FARAFANGANA. NEAR THE IMPACT ZONE, DESTRUCTIVE WIND
GUSTS WHICH CAN EXCEED 200 KM/H, 10 METERS HIGH WAVES OFFSHORE, STORM
SURGE REACHING AROUND 1 METER AND VERY INTENSE RAINFALL IN THE AREA
(UP TO 200-400 MM IN THE LOWLANDS AND NEARLY 500 MM ON THE NEARBY
MOUNTAINS IN 24 HOURS) WHICH CAN PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. THE
INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM AND TO FOLLOW LOCAL AUTHORITIES' INSTRUCTIONS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 220002
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/02/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 22/02/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI) 958 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 51.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 160
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/22 AT 12 UTC:
20.8 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 210 NM SE: 275 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/23 AT 00 UTC:
22.1 S / 47.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 NM SE: 275 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 212100
WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 220221200135
2022022118 13S EMNATI 012 01 240 06 SATL 010
T000 185S 0521E 095 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 175 SE QD 170 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 199S 0504E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 220 SE QD 180 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 214S 0487E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 229S 0472E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 248S 0453E 055 R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 284S 0426E 045 R034 150 NE QD 220 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 316S 0433E 045 R034 150 NE QD 240 SE QD 200 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 18.5S 52.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 52.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.9S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.4S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.9S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.8S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.4S 42.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.6S 43.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 51.7E.
21FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 217
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.
//
1322021418 145S 793E 20
1322021500 146S 773E 20
1322021506 144S 755E 20
1322021512 143S 738E 25
1322021518 142S 720E 30
1322021600 141S 708E 30
1322021606 140S 701E 30
1322021612 140S 692E 30
1322021618 141S 684E 35
1322021700 141S 674E 45
1322021706 140S 658E 50
1322021706 140S 658E 50
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021800 137S 633E 55
1322021800 137S 633E 55
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
1322022012 176S 552E 115
1322022012 176S 552E 115
1322022012 176S 552E 115
1322022018 176S 546E 110
1322022018 176S 546E 110
1322022018 176S 546E 110
1322022100 176S 540E 105
1322022100 176S 540E 105
1322022100 176S 540E 105
1322022106 179S 535E 100
1322022106 179S 535E 100
1322022106 179S 535E 100
1322022112 182S 527E 100
1322022112 182S 527E 100
1322022112 182S 527E 100
1322022118 185S 521E 95
1322022118 185S 521E 95
1322022118 185S 521E 95
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 18.5S 52.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 52.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.9S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.4S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.9S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.8S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.4S 42.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.6S 43.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 51.7E.
21FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 217
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 211801
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/5/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 21/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.4 S / 52.0 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 958 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 61 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 465 SO: 465 NO: 405
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 295
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/02/2022 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 530 SO: 325 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SO: 220 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75

24H: 22/02/2022 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 500 SO: 220 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 305 SO: 155 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 23/02/2022 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 500 SO: 325 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 305 SO: 120 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 100 NO: 75

48H: 23/02/2022 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 510 SO: 370 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 325 SO: 230 NO: 215

60H: 24/02/2022 06 UTC: 26.8 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 490 SO: 345 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SO: 215 NO: 215

72H: 24/02/2022 18 UTC: 28.9 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 520 SO: 400 NO: 400
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 345 SO: 270 NO: 250

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/02/2022 18 UTC: 32.0 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 535 SO: 500 NO: 415
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 360 SO: 345 NO: 260

120H: 26/02/2022 18 UTC: 33.8 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 695 SO: 610 NO: 490
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 470 SO: 400 NO: 325

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0-

LE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL (ERC) DU CYCLONE EMNATI SE
POURSUIT LENTEMENT : LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITAIRES CLASSIQUES ET
MICRO-ONDES DE 1344UTC MONTRENT EN EFFET LA PERSISTANCE D'UN MUR DE
L'OEIL INTERNE RESIDUEL ENCORE BIEN VISIBLE MAIS MAINTENANT PARTIEL
ENTOURE D'UN MUR EXTERNE DEVENANT PLUS SOLIDE. EN L'ABSENCE DE
NOUVELLES DONNEES OBJECTIVES, ET AVEC UNE ANALYSE DVORAK EN OEIL PEU
PERTINENTE POUR EVALUER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME EN RAISON DU PROCESSUS
D'ERC EN COURS, L'INTENSITE ESTIMEE A 18UTC EST MAINTENUE A 75 KT.

LE DEPLACEMENT D'EMNATI ENCORE OUEST SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT PRENDRE UN CAP
VERS LE SUD-OUEST A PARTIR DE CETTE NUIT, SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. LES MODELES RESTENT ASSEZ
FORTEMENT DISPERSES CONCERNANT LA COMPOSANTE PLUS OU MOINS SUD DE
CETTE TRAJECTOIRE DONC SUR LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR
MARDI EN FIN DE JOURNA E OU SOIREE. SUR CE POINT, LA TRAJECTOIRE CMRS
FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIVERS SCENARIOS. EMNATI DEVRAIT ENSUITE
RESSORTIR EN MER AU SUD DE LA GRANDE ILE EN NUIT DE MERCREDI A JEUDI.
UNE PETITE FAIBLESSE DES HAUTS GA OPOTENTIELS AU SUD-OUEST ET UN
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PLUS A L'EST DEVRAIT FAIRE LENTEMENT
DERIVER LE SYSTEME VERS LE SUD, FRANCHISSANT LE 30E PARALLELE
VENDREDI, MAIS SANS EVACUATION RAPIDE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES EN
RAISON D'UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
FAVORABLES, AVEC UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT ET UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE, QUI SE POURSUIVRA MEME JUSQU'A JEUDI. APRES
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT TEMPORAIRE DU A L'ERC, EMNATI DEVRAIT REPRENDRE UNE
PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION A PARTIR EN COURS DE NUIT ET AU FIL DE SA
PROGRESSION VERS LES COTES DE MADAGASCAR, RETROUVANT POTENTIELLEMENT
LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE MARDI SOIR.
ENTRE MERCREDI SOIR ET JEUDI, EMNATI DEVRAIT RESSORTIR EN MER A UN
STADE AFFAIBLI ET AVEC UN CENTRE MAL CONSOLIDE, MAIS DEVRAIT
CONNAITRE UNE MODESTE RE-INTENSIFICATION AVANT D'EVOLUER EN SYSTEME
POST-TROPICAL VENDREDI EN GAGNANT LES EAUX PLUS FROIDES ET SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT ET D'UNE ADVECTION D'AIR SEC
SUR LE NORD DE LA CIRCULATION.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- LA REUNION : LE TEMPS RESTE PERTURBE CE LUNDI SOIR DANS LE SILLAGE
DU CYCLONE QUI S'ELOIGNE LENTEMENT (FORTES RAFALES DANS LES HAUTS,
PRECIPITATIONS LOCALEMENT SOUTENUES ET HOULE SUR LE NORD DE L'ILE).
AMELIORATION PREVUE MARDI.
- MADAGASCAR : EMNATI EST UN CYCLONE TRES DANGEREUX QUI DEVRAIT
ATTERRIR MARDI EN FIN DE JOURNEE OU SOIREE POTENTIELLEMENT AU STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE EST ENCORE
INCERTAINE MAIS LA PROBABILITE EST PLUS FORTE POUR LA PROVINCE DE
FIANARANTSOA, NOTAMMENT ENTRE MANANJARY ET FARAFANGANA. PRES DE LA
ZONE D'IMPACT, IL FAUT CRAINDRE DES RAFALES DESTRUCTRICES POUVANT
DEPASSER LES 200 KM/H, DES VAGUES PROCHES DE 10 METRES AU LARGE, UNE
SURELEVATION DU NIVEAU DE LA MER POUVANT ATTEINDRE AUTOUR D'1 METRE
ET DES PLUIES TRES INTENSES SUR LA REGION (JUSQU'A 200-400 MM EN
PLAINE ET PRES DE 500 MM SUR LE RELIEF EN 24 HEURES) POUVANT CREER
D'IMPORTANTES INONDATIONS. LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC
ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME ET A SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES
AUTORITES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 211801
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/21 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 52.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 61 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 465 SW: 465 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 295
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/22 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 530 SW: 325 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SW: 220 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

24H: 2022/02/22 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 500 SW: 220 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 305 SW: 155 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2022/02/23 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 500 SW: 325 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 305 SW: 120 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 100 NW: 75

48H: 2022/02/23 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 510 SW: 370 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 215

60H: 2022/02/24 06 UTC: 26.8 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 490 SW: 345 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SW: 215 NW: 215

72H: 2022/02/24 18 UTC: 28.9 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 520 SW: 400 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 250

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/25 18 UTC: 32.0 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 535 SW: 500 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 360 SW: 345 NW: 260

120H: 2022/02/26 18 UTC: 33.8 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 695 SW: 610 NW: 490
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 470 SW: 400 NW: 325

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) OF CYCLONE EMNATI CONTINUES
SLOWLY: THE LATEST CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES OF
1344UTC SHOW INDEED THE PERSISTENCE OF A RESIDUAL INNER EYEWALL STILL
WELL VISIBLE BUT NOW PARTIAL SURROUNDED BY AN OUTER WALL BECOMING
STRONGER. IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW OBJECTIVE DATA, AND WITH A DVORAK EYE
ANALYSIS NOT VERY RELEVANT TO EVALUATE THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
BECAUSE OF THE ONGOING ERC PROCESS, THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY AT 18UTC
IS MAINTAINED AT 75 KT.

THE MOVEMENT OF EMNATI STILL WEST SOUTH-WEST SHOULD TAKE A
SOUTH-WESTERN COURSE FROM TONIGHT, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
QUITE DISPERSED ABOUT THE MORE OR LESS SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF THIS
TRACK, AND THEREFORE ON THE LANDFALL AREA OVER MADAGASCAR ON TUESDAY
EVENING. ON THIS POINT, THE RSMC'S TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
VARIOUS AVAILABLE SCENARIOS. EMNATI SHOULD THEN EMERGE AT SEA SOUTH
OF MADAGASCAR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND A STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE
FURTHER EAST SHOULD MAKE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD, CROSSING
THE 30TH PARALLEL ON FRIDAY, BUT WITHOUT ANY QUICK MOVEMENT TOWARDS
THE MID-LATITUDES BECAUSE OF A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE,
WITH LOW WIND SHEAR AND VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WHICH WILL
EVEN CONTINUE UNTIL THURSDAY. AFTER THE TEMPORARY WEAKENING DUE TO
THE ERC, EMNATI SHOULD RESUME INTENSIFICATION FROM THIS NIGHT AND AS
IT PROGRESSES TOWARDS MADAGASCAR, POTENTIALLY REGAINING INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY, EMNATI SHOULD EMERGE AT SEA IN A FAIRLY WEAKENED STATE
WITH A POORLY CONSOLIDATED CENTER, BUT SHOULD EXPERIENCE A MODEST
RE-INTENSIFICATION BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY BY MOVING OVER COLDER SST AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING SHEAR AND DRY AIR ADVECTION OVER THE NORTH OFF THE
CIRCULATION.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- REUNION ISLAND : DISTURBED WEATHER THIS MONDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE
OF THE CYCLONE WHICH IS SLOWLY MOVING AWAY (STRONG GUSTS IN THE
HIGHLANDS, LOCALLY SUSTAINED PRECIPITATIONS AND HIGH SWELL ON THE
NORTH OF THE ISLAND). IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
- MADAGASCAR : EMNATI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE WHICH SHOULD MAKE
LANDFALL ON TUESDAY EVENING POTENTIALLY AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE LANDFALL AREA IS STILL UNCERTAIN, WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OVER THE FIANARANTSOA PROVINCE, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
MANANJARY AND FARAFANGANA. NEAR THE IMPACT ZONE, DESTRUCTIVE WIND
GUSTS WHICH CAN EXCEED 200 KM/H, 10 METERS HIGH WAVES OFFSHORE, STORM
SURGE REACHING AROUND 1 METER AND VERY INTENSE RAINFALL IN THE AREA
(UP TO 200-400 MM IN THE LOWLANDS AND NEARLY 500 MM ON THE NEARBY
MOUNTAINS IN 24 HOURS) WHICH CAN PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. THE
INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM AND TO FOLLOW LOCAL AUTHORITIES' INSTRUCTIONS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 211801
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/02/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 21/02/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI) 958 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 52.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 170 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN SECTOR.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 150 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 200
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/22 AT 06 UTC:
20.1 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 235 NM SE: 285 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 170 NM
34 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 115 NM
48 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 65 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/22 AT 18 UTC:
21.4 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 NM SE: 270 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 145 NM
34 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 100 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 60 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 211317
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/5/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 21/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.2 S / 52.8 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 958 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 69 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 465 SO: 465 NO: 405
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 295
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/02/2022 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 520 SO: 465 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 315 SO: 295 NO: 295
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 75

24H: 22/02/2022 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 520 SO: 445 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 240
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 23/02/2022 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 500 SO: 295 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 23/02/2022 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SO: 295 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SO: 205 NO: 185

60H: 24/02/2022 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SO: 350 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SO: 220 NO: 215

72H: 24/02/2022 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 480 SO: 390 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SO: 240 NO: 230

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/02/2022 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 500 SO: 455 NO: 415
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 345 SO: 285 NO: 260

120H: 26/02/2022 12 UTC: 33.5 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 655 SO: 600 NO: 520
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 445 SO: 370 NO: 335

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0-


LE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL (ERC) DU CYCLONE EMNATI SE
POURSUIT LENTEMENT : LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITAIRES CLASSIQUES ET
MICRO-ONDES MONTRENT EN EFFET LA PERSISTANCE D'UN MUR DE L'OEIL
INTERNE RESIDUEL ENCORE BIEN VISIBLE ENTOURE D'UN MUR EXTERNE
DEVENANT PLUS SOLIDE. L'ANALYSE COMPARATIVE DE DONNEES ANNEXES A
POSTERIORI (SAR 0146Z, SMAP 0223Z) PERMET D'ESTIMER QUE L'INTENSITE
DU POINT DE 06UTC A PROBABLEMENT ETE SURESTIMEE ET SE SITUE PLUS PRES
DE 70/75 KT QUE DE 85 KT (AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS FRANC LIE A L'ERC). EN
L'ABSENCE DE NOUVELLES DONNEES OBJECTIVES, ET AVEC UNE ANALYSE DVORAK
EN OEIL PEU PERTINENTE POUR EVALUER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME EN RAISON
DU PROCESSUS D'ERC EN COURS, L'INTENSITE ESTIMEE A 12UTC EST
PLAFONNEE A 75 KT. LES PASSES ASCAT PARTIELLES AUTOUR DE 06UTC
PERMETTENT D'AFFINER LES ESTIMATIONS DES EXTENSIONS DE VENT.

LA TRAJECTOIRE D'EMNATI SUIT UN CAP VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS UN
PEU PLUS FRANCHEMENT SUD-OUEST A PARTIR DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE, SOUS
L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. LES MODELES
RESTENT ASSEZ FORTEMENT DISPERSES CONCERNANT LA COMPOSANTE PLUS OU
MOINS SUD DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE DONC SUR LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE SUR
MADAGASCAR MARDI EN FIN DE JOURNA E OU SOIREE. SUR CE POINT, LA
TRAJECTOIRE CMRS FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIVERS SCENARIOS. EMNATI
DEVRAIT ENSUITE RESSORTIR EN MER AU SUD DE LA GRANDE ILE EN NUIT DE
MERCREDI A JEUDI. UNE PETITE FAIBLESSE DES HAUTS GA OPOTENTIELS AU
SUD-OUEST ET UN RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PLUS A L'EST DEVRAIT FAIRE
LENTEMENT DERIVER LE SYSTEME VERS LE SUD, FRANCHISSANT LE 30E
PARALLELE VENDREDI, MAIS SANS EVACUATION RAPIDE VERS LES MOYENNES
LATITUDES EN RAISON D'UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
FAVORABLES, AVEC UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT ET UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE, QUI SE POURSUIVRA MEME JUSQU'A JEUDI. APRES
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT TEMPORAIRE DU A L'ERC, EMNATI DEVRAIT REPRENDRE UNE
PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION A PARTIR DE CE LUNDI SOIR ET AU FIL DE SA
PROGRESSION VERS LES COTES DE MADAGASCAR, RETROUVANT POTENTIELLEMENT
LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE MARDI SOIR.
ENTRE MERCREDI SOIR ET JEUDI, EMNATI DEVRAIT RESSORTIR EN MER A UN
STADE AFFAIBLI ET AVEC UN CENTRE MAL CONSOLIDE, MAIS DEVRAIT
CONNAITRE UNE MODESTE RE-INTENSIFICATION AVANT D'EVOLUER EN SYSTEME
POST-TROPICAL VENDREDI EN GAGNANT LES EAUX PLUS FROIDES ET SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT ET D'UNE ADVECTION D'AIR SEC
SUR LE NORD DE LA CIRCULATION.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- LA REUNION : LE TEMPS RESTE PERTURBE CE LUNDI SOIR DANS LE SILLAGE
DU CYCLONE QUI S'ELOIGNE LENTEMENT (FORTES RAFALES DANS LES HAUTS,
PRECIPITATIONS LOCALEMENT SOUTENUES ET HOULE SUR LE NORD DE L'ILE).
AMELIORATION PREVUE MARDI.
- MADAGASCAR : EMNATI EST UN CYCLONE TRES DANGEREUX QUI DEVRAIT
ATTERRIR MARDI EN FIN DE JOURNEE OU SOIREE POTENTIELLEMENT AU STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE EST ENCORE
INCERTAINE MAIS LA PROBABILITE EST PLUS FORTE POUR LA PROVINCE DE
FIANARANTSOA, NOTAMMENT ENTRE MANANJARY ET FARAFANGANA EN PASSANT PAR
MANAKARA (A CONFIRMER). PRES DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT, IL FAUT CRAINDRE
DES RAFALES DESTRUCTRICES POUVANT AVOISINER 200 KM/H, DES VAGUES
PROCHES DE 10 METRES AU LARGE, UNE SURELEVATION DU NIVEAU DE LA MER
POUVANT ATTEINDRE AUTOUR D'1 METRE ET DES PLUIES TRES INTENSES SUR LA
REGION (JUSQU'A 200-400 MM EN PLAINE ET PRES DE 500 MM SUR LE RELIEF
EN 24 HEURES) POUVANT CREER D'IMPORTANTES INONDATIONS. LES HABITANTS
SONT INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME ET A
SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 211317
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/21 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 52.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 69 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 465 SW: 465 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 295
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/22 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 520 SW: 465 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 315 SW: 295 NW: 295
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75

24H: 2022/02/22 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 520 SW: 445 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2022/02/23 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 500 SW: 295 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2022/02/23 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SW: 295 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 185

60H: 2022/02/24 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SW: 350 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 220 NW: 215

72H: 2022/02/24 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 480 SW: 390 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 230

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/25 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 500 SW: 455 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 345 SW: 285 NW: 260

120H: 2022/02/26 12 UTC: 33.5 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 655 SW: 600 NW: 520
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 445 SW: 370 NW: 335

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-


THE CYCLONE'S SLOW EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IS STILL ONGOING :
LATEST CLASSICAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE
PERSISTENCE OF A RESIDUAL INTERNAL EYEWALL STILL SURROUNDED BY AN
EXTERNAL WALL THAT IS BECOMING STRONGER. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF
ADDITIONAL DATA (SAR 0146Z, SMAP 0223Z) ALLOWS US TO ESTIMATE THAT
THE 06Z INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS PROBABLY OVERESTIMATED AND WOULD
ACTUALLY BE CLOSER TO 70/75 KT THAN 85 KT (WEAKENING LINKED TO THE
ERC). IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW OBJECTIVE DATA, AND WITH DVORAK ANALYSIS
NOT VERY RELEVANT TO ASSESS THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY BECAUSE OF THE
ONGOING ERC PROCESS, THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY AT 12UTC IS KEPT AT 75
KT. THE PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES AROUND 06UTC HAVE ALLOWED TO ADJUST WIND
EXTENSIONS ESTIMATES.

EMNATI IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM TONIGHT UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL QUITE DISPERSED
ABOUT THE MORE OR LESS SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF THIS TRACK, AND
THEREFORE ON THE LANDFALL AREA OVER MADAGASCAR ON TUESDAY EVENING. ON
THIS POINT, THE RSMC'S TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN VARIOUS
AVAILABLE SCENARIOS. EMNATI SHOULD THEN EMERGE AT SEA SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND A STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE
FURTHER EAST SHOULD MAKE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD, CROSSING
THE 30TH PARALLEL ON FRIDAY, BUT WITHOUT ANY QUICK MOVEMENT TOWARDS
THE MID-LATITUDES BECAUSE OF A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE,
WITH LOW WIND SHEAR AND VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WHICH WILL
EVEN CONTINUE UNTIL THURSDAY. AFTER THE TEMPORARY WEAKENING DUE TO
THE ERC, EMNATI SHOULD RESUME INTENSIFICATION FROM THIS MONDAY
EVENING AND AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARDS MADAGASCAR, POTENTIALLY
REGAINING INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, EMNATI SHOULD EMERGE AT SEA IN A FAIRLY
WEAKENED STATE WITH A POORLY CONSOLIDATED CENTER, BUT SHOULD
EXPERIENCE A MODEST RE-INTENSIFICATION BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A
POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY BY MOVING OVER COLDER SST AND UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SHEAR AND DRY AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
NORTH OFF THE CIRCULATION.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- REUNION ISLAND : DISTURBED WEATHER THIS MONDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE
OF THE CYCLONE WHICH IS SLOWLY MOVING AWAY (STRONG GUSTS IN THE
HIGHLANDS, LOCALLY SUSTAINED PRECIPITATIONS AND HIGH SWELL ON THE
NORTH OF THE ISLAND). IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
- MADAGASCAR : EMNATI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE WHICH SHOULD MAKE
LANDFALL ON TUESDAY EVENING POTENTIALLY AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE LANDFALL AREA IS STILL UNCERTAIN, WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OVER THE FIANARANTSOA PROVINCE, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
MANANJARY, MANAKARA AND FARAFANGANA (ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NEED TO BE
CONFIRMED). NEAR THE IMPACT ZONE, DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS NEAR 200
KM/H, 10 METERS HIGH WAVES OFFSHORE, STORM SURGE REACHING AROUND 1
METER AND VERY INTENSE RAINFALL IN THE AREA (UP TO 200-400 MM IN THE
LOWLANDS AND NEARLY 500 MM ON THE NEARBY MOUNTAINS IN 24 HOURS) WHICH
CAN PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. THE INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO
FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND TO FOLLOW
LOCAL AUTHORITIES' INSTRUCTIONS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 211232
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/5/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 21/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.2 S / 52.8 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 958 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 69 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 465 SO: 465 NO: 405
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 295
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/02/2022 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 520 SO: 465 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 315 SO: 295 NO: 295
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 75

24H: 22/02/2022 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 520 SO: 445 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 240
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 23/02/2022 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 500 SO: 295 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 23/02/2022 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SO: 295 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SO: 205 NO: 185

60H: 24/02/2022 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SO: 350 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SO: 220 NO: 215

72H: 24/02/2022 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 480 SO: 390 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SO: 240 NO: 230

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/02/2022 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 500 SO: 455 NO: 415
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 345 SO: 285 NO: 260

120H: 26/02/2022 12 UTC: 33.5 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 655 SO: 600 NO: 520
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 445 SO: 370 NO: 335

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0


LE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL (ERC) DU CYCLONE EMNATI SE
POURSUIT LENTEMENT : LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITAIRES CLASSIQUES ET
MICRO-ONDES MONTRENT EN EFFET LA PERSISTANCE D'UN MUR DE L'OEIL
INTERNE RESIDUEL ENCORE BIEN VISIBLE ENTOURE D'UN MUR EXTERNE
DEVENANT PLUS SOLIDE. L'ANALYSE COMPARATIVE DE DONNEES ANNEXES A
POSTERIORI (SAR 0146Z, SMAP 0223Z) PERMET D'ESTIMER QUE L'INTENSITE
DU POINT DE 06UTC A PROBABLEMENT ETE SURESTIMEE ET SE SITUE PLUS PRES
DE 70/75 KT QUE DE 85 KT (AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS FRANC LIE A L'ERC). EN
L'ABSENCE DE NOUVELLES DONNEES OBJECTIVES, ET AVEC UNE ANALYSE DVORAK
EN OEIL PEU PERTINENTE POUR EVALUER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME EN RAISON
DU PROCESSUS D'ERC EN COURS, L'INTENSITE ESTIMEE A 12UTC EST
PLAFONNEE A 75 KT. LES PASSES ASCAT PARTIELLES AUTOUR DE 06UTC
PERMETTENT D'AFFINER LES ESTIMATIONS DES EXTENSIONS DE VENT.

LA TRAJECTOIRE D'EMNATI SUIT UN CAP VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS UN
PEU PLUS FRANCHEMENT SUD-OUEST A PARTIR DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE, SOUS
L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. LES MODELES
RESTENT ASSEZ FORTEMENT DISPERSES CONCERNANT LA COMPOSANTE PLUS OU
MOINS SUD DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE DONC SUR LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE SUR
MADAGASCAR MARDI EN FIN DE JOURNA E OU SOIREE. SUR CE POINT, LA
TRAJECTOIRE CMRS FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIVERS SCENARIOS. EMNATI
DEVRAIT ENSUITE RESSORTIR EN MER AU SUD DE LA GRANDE ILE EN NUIT DE
MERCREDI A JEUDI. UNE PETITE FAIBLESSE DES HAUTS GA OPOTENTIELS AU
SUD-OUEST ET UN RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PLUS A L'EST DEVRAIT FAIRE
LENTEMENT DERIVER LE SYSTEME VERS LE SUD, FRANCHISSANT LE 30E
PARALLELE VENDREDI, MAIS SANS EVACUATION RAPIDE VERS LES MOYENNES
LATITUDES EN RAISON D'UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
FAVORABLES AVEC UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT ET UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE, QUI SE POURSUIVRA MEME JUSQU'A JEUDI. APRES
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT TEMPORAIRE DU A L'ERC, EMNATI DEVRAIT REPRENDRE UNE
PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION A PARTIR DE CE LUNDI SOIR ET AU FIL DE SA
PROGRESSION VERS LES COTES DE MADAGASCAR, RETROUVANT POTENTIELLEMENT
LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE MARDI SOIR.
ENTRE MERCREDI SOIR ET JEUDI, EMNATI DEVRAIT RESSORTIR EN MER A UN
STADE AFFAIBLI ET AVEC UN CENTRE MAL CONSOLIDE, MAIS DEVRAIT
CONNAITRE UNE MODESTE RE-INTENSIFICATION AVANT D'EVOLUER EN SYSTEME
POST-TROPICAL VENDREDI EN GAGNANT LES EAUX PLUS FROIDES ET SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT ET D'UNE ADVECTION D'AIR SEC
SUR LE NORD DE LA CIRCULATION.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- LA REUNION : LE TEMPS RESTE PERTURBE CE LUNDI SOIR DANS LE SILLAGE
DU CYCLONE QUI S'ELOIGNE LENTEMENT (FORTES RAFALES DANS LES HAUTS,
PRECIPITATIONS LOCALEMENT SOUTENUES ET HOULE SUR LE NORD DE L'ILE).
AMELIORATION PREVUE MARDI.
- MADAGASCAR : EMNATI EST UN CYCLONE TRES DANGEREUX QUI DEVRAIT
ATTERRIR MARDI EN FIN DE JOURNEE OU SOIREE POTENTIELLEMENT AU STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE EST ENCORE
INCERTAINE MAIS LA PROBABILITE EST PLUS FORTE POUR LA PROVINCE DE
FIANARANTSOA, NOTAMMENT ENTRE MANANJARY ET FARAFANGANA EN PASSANT PAR
MANAKARA (A CONFIRMER). PRES DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT, IL FAUT CRAINDRE
DES RAFALES POUVANT AVOISINER 200 KM/H, DES VAGUES PROCHES DE 10
METRES AU LARGE, UNE SURELEVATION DU NIVEAU DE LA MER POUVANT
ATTEINDRE AUTOUR D'1 METRE ET DES PLUIES TRES INTENSES SUR LA REGION
(JUSQU'A 200-400 MM EN PLAINE ET PRES DE 500 MM SUR LE RELIEF EN 24
HEURES) POUVANT CREER D'IMPORTANTES INONDATIONS. LES HABITANTS SONT
INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME ET A SUIVRE
LES CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 211232
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/21 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 52.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 69 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 465 SW: 465 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 295
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/22 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 520 SW: 465 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 315 SW: 295 NW: 295
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75

24H: 2022/02/22 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 520 SW: 445 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2022/02/23 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 500 SW: 295 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2022/02/23 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SW: 295 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 185

60H: 2022/02/24 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SW: 350 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 220 NW: 215

72H: 2022/02/24 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 480 SW: 390 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 230

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/25 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 500 SW: 455 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 345 SW: 285 NW: 260

120H: 2022/02/26 12 UTC: 33.5 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 655 SW: 600 NW: 520
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 445 SW: 370 NW: 335

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0


DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, EMNATI HAS BEEN UNDERGOING A PROCESS OF
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC), WITH A WEAKENING OF THE INITIAL
INNER CORE AND A STRENGTHENING OF THE NEW OUTER CORE, AS SHOWN BY THE
COMPARISON BETWEEN LATE NIGHT SSMIS PASSES AND THE PREVIOUS AMSR2
PASS. THE INNER RING IS STILL VISIBLE ON CLASSICAL SATELLITE IMAGERY,
BUT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NOW PROBABLY LOCATED IN THE NEW OUTER RING.
THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS BEEN INCREASED ACCORDINGLY AS WELL AS
THE EXTENSION OF STRONG WINDS AT THE CYCLONE'S PERIPHERY. OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE SINCE YESTERDAY 18UTC,
CONSISTENT WITH THE ERC PROCESS. A SMAP PASS AT 0223Z SHOWS WINDS AT
78KT AND CONFIRMS THE BROADENING OF RMW. THE CYCLONE'S INTENSITY IS
THUS ESTIMATED AT 85KT, MAKING EMNATI TEMPORARILY GO BACK DOWN TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.

IN THE SHORT RUN, EMNATI'S TRACK FOLLOWS A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WEST
DIRECTION UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THEN
SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG DISPERSION
CONCERNING THE LATITUDE OF LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR ON TUESDAY
EVENING. TO PARTLY TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE GFS/GEFS MODEL MAKING THE
CYCLONE PASS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE, THE TRACK
HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SHIFTED SOUTHWARDS. WITH THE SHIFT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM, EMNATI SHOULD
CROSS THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR ON A SOUTH-WESTERN TRACK, TO EMERGE OFF
THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. BACK OVER SEA, EMNATI
WILL FOLLOW A WEAKNESS OF THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTH AND
TURN MORE SHARPLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES WHILE SLOWING
DOWN ITS MOVEMENT.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE
WITH LOW SHEAR AND VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, EMNATI IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN
INTENSITY IN THE VERY SHORT TERM BEFORE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AGAIN AS
IT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR ON TUESDAY. EMNATI SHOULD
THUS RE-INTENSIFY TO THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL ITS
LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR TUESDAY EVENING. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, EMNATI IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE AT SEA IN A WEAKENED STATE AND
IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A SHORT-LIVED AND LIMITED RE-INTENSIFICATION
PHASE BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM BY MOVING OVER
COLDER WATERS AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND
DRY AIR ADVECTION OVER THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- REUNION ISLAND : DISTURBED WEATHER REMAINING THIS MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE CYCLONE WHICH IS MOVING AWAY VERY SLOWLY. MAXIMUM GUSTS
OF 100-120 KM/H ON THE COAST, 120-140 KM/H IN THE HIGHLANDS, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH SWELL ON THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THEN ON TUESDAY.
- MADAGASCAR : EMNATI IS A DANGEROUS CYCLONE WHICH SHOULD MAKE
LANDFALL ON TUESDAY EVENING AT THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE, THUS POSING A VERY SERIOUS THREAT FOR THE LANDFALL AREA,
WHICH LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE MOST PROBABLE IMPACTED AREA
HAS BEEN SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH AND SEEMS TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN NOSY
VARIKA AND FARAFANGANA (FIANARANTSOA PROVINCE). INHABITANTS ARE
INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND TO
FOLLOW AUTHORITIES RECOMMENDATIONS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 211204
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/02/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 21/02/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI) 958 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 52.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 260 NM IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN SECTORS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 150 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 200
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/22 AT 00 UTC:
19.5 S / 51.2 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 NM SE: 280 NM SW: 250 NM NW: 200 NM
34 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 160 NM
48 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 65 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/22 AT 12 UTC:
21.0 S / 49.4 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 NM SE: 280 NM SW: 240 NM NW: 200 NM
34 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 130 NM
48 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 70 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 210900
WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 220221073259
2022022106 13S EMNATI 011 01 240 06 SATL 030
T000 179S 0535E 100 R064 065 NE QD 040 SE QD 055 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 105 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 185 SE QD 145 SW QD 170 NW QD
T012 187S 0519E 100 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 240 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 199S 0502E 105 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 220 SE QD 180 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 213S 0484E 100 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 228S 0466E 055 R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 262S 0431E 045 R034 180 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 298S 0416E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 321S 0418E 050 R050 000 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 270 SE QD 260 SW QD 210 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 53.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 53.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.7S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.9S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.3S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.8S 46.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.2S 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.8S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 32.1S 41.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 53.1E.
21FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 186
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z.
//
1322021418 145S 793E 20
1322021500 146S 773E 20
1322021506 144S 755E 20
1322021512 143S 738E 25
1322021518 142S 720E 30
1322021600 141S 708E 30
1322021606 140S 701E 30
1322021612 140S 692E 30
1322021618 141S 684E 35
1322021700 141S 674E 45
1322021706 140S 658E 50
1322021706 140S 658E 50
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021800 137S 633E 55
1322021800 137S 633E 55
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
1322022012 176S 552E 115
1322022012 176S 552E 115
1322022012 176S 552E 115
1322022018 176S 546E 110
1322022018 176S 546E 110
1322022018 176S 546E 110
1322022100 176S 540E 105
1322022100 176S 540E 105
1322022100 176S 540E 105
1322022106 179S 535E 100
1322022106 179S 535E 100
1322022106 179S 535E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 53.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 53.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.7S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.9S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.3S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.8S 46.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.2S 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.8S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 32.1S 41.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 53.1E.
21FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 186
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 210600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 210648
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/5/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 21/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.9 S / 53.5 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 954 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 72 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 465 SO: 465 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 335 SO: 315 NO: 315
48 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 190 NO: 165
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/02/2022 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 535 SO: 465 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 335 SO: 315 NO: 295
48 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 165
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 95

24H: 22/02/2022 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 555 SO: 465 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 345 SO: 295 NO: 280
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 95

36H: 22/02/2022 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 535 SO: 350 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SO: 205 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 55

48H: 23/02/2022 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 520 SO: 350 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 325 SO: 165 NO: 175

60H: 23/02/2022 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 520 SO: 350 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SO: 280 NO: 220

72H: 24/02/2022 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 510 SO: 370 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 335 SO: 250 NO: 230

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/02/2022 06 UTC: 31.1 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 565 SO: 415 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SO: 305 NO: 250

120H: 26/02/2022 06 UTC: 32.5 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 665 SO: 575 NO: 510
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 455 SO: 380 NO: 325

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0;CI=5.5


AU COURS DES 6 HEURES DERNIERES, LE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL (ERC) DU CYCLONE EMNATI S'EST POURSUIVI, AVEC UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT CONSTATE DE L'ANNEAU INTERNE INITIAL ET UN
RENFORCEMENT DU NOUVEAU MUR EXTERNE, COMME LE MONTRE LA COMPARAISON
ENTRE LES PASSES SSMIS DE FIN DE NUIT ET L'AMSR2 QUI PRECEDAIT.
L'ANNEAU INTERNE RESTE VISIBLE SUR L'IMAGERIE SATELLITAIRE CLASSIQUE,
MAIS LES VENTS MAXIMAUX SE SITUENT DESORMAIS PROBABLEMENT DANS LE
NOUVEL ANNEAU EXTERNE. LE RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX A ETE AUGMENTE EN
CONSEQUENCE AINSI QUE L'EXTENSION DES VENTS FORTS EN PERIPHERIE DU
CYCLONE. LES ESTIMATIONS D'INTENSITE OBJECTIVES MONTRENT UNE LEGERE
BAISSE DEPUIS HIER 18UTC, COHERENTE AVEC LE PROCESSUS D'ERC. UNE
PASSE SMAP A 0223Z INDIQUE DES VENTS A 78KT ET CONFIRME
L'ELARGISSEMENT DU RVM. L'INTENSITE DU CYCLONE EST DONC ESTIMEE A
85KT, FAISANT REDESCENDRE EMNATI TEMPORAIREMENT DANS LE HAUT DU STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.

A COURT TERME, LA TRAJECTOIRE D'EMNATI SUIT UN CAP EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
AU SUD PUIS SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. UNE FORTE DISPERSION EST NEANMOINS
PRESENTE ENTRE MODELES CONCERNANT LA LATITUDE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR MARDI EN FIN DE JOURNA E. POUR TENIR
COMPTE EN PARTIE DE L'OPTION DU MODELE AMERICAIN FAISANT PASSER LE
CYCLONE BEAUCOUP PLUS AU SUD QUE LE MODELE EUROPEEN, LA TRAJECTOIRE A
ETE LEGEREMENT DECALEE VERS LE SUD. AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME, EMNATI DEVRAIT TRAVERSER LE SUD
DE MADAGASCAR SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-OUEST POUR RESSORTIR AU SUD DE
L'ILE MERCREDI SOIR. DE RETOUR EN MER, EMNATI PROFITERA D'UNE
FAIBLESSE DES HAUTS GA OPOTENTIELS AU SUD POUR TOURNER PLUS
FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD EN DIRECTION DES MOYENNES LATITUDES TOUT EN
RALENTISSANT SON MOUVEMENT.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT TRES
FAVORABLES AVEC UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT ET UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE. TOUTEFOIS, SUITE AU CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL EN COURS, EMNATI DEVRAIT A TRES COURT TERME STATIONNER EN
INTENSITA AVANT DE SE RENFORCER LENTEMENT A NOUVEAU AU FIL DE SA
PROGRESSION VERS LES COTES DE MADAGASCAR. EMNATI DEVRAIT AINSI SE
RE-INTENSIFIER AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICALE INTENSE JUSQU'A SON
ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR MARDI SOIR. MERCREDI SOIR ET JEUDI,
EMNATI DEVRAIT RESSORTIR EN MER A UN STADE AFFAIBLI ET DEVRAIT
CONNAITRE UNE COURTE ET MODESTE RE-INTENSIFICATION AVANT D'EVOLUER EN
SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL EN GAGNANT LES EAUX PLUS FROIDES ET SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT ET D'UNE ADVECTION D'AIR SEC
SUR LE NORD DE LA CIRCULATION.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- LA REUNION : LE TEMPS RESTE PERTURBE CE LUNDI DANS LE SILLAGE DU
CYCLONE QUI S'ELOIGNE TRES LENTEMENT. RAFALES MAXIMALES DE 100-120
KM/H SUR LE LITTORAL, 120-140 KM/H DANS LES HAUTS, PRECIPITATIONS
LOCALEMENT SOUTENUES ET HOULE SUR LE NORD DE L'ILE. AMELIORATION EN
COURS DE JOURNEE DE MARDI.
- MADAGASCAR : EMNATI EST UN CYCLONE DANGEREUX QUI DEVRAIT ATTERRIR
MARDI EN FIN DE JOURNEE OU SOIREE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE, PRESENTANT DONC UN TRES FORT DANGER POUR LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE DONT LA LOCALISATION EST ENCORE INCERTAINE. LA ZONE LA
PLUS PROBABLE D'IMPACT A ETE DECALEE PLUS AU SUD ET SEMBLE SE SITUER
ENTRE NOSY VARIKA ET FARAFANGANA (PROVINCE DE FIANARANTSOA). LES
HABITANTS SONT INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE CE
SYSTEME ET A SE CONFORMER AUX RECOMMENDATIONS DES AUTORITES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 210648
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/21 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 53.5 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 954 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 72 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 465 SW: 465 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 335 SW: 315 NW: 315
48 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 190 NW: 165
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/21 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 535 SW: 465 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 335 SW: 315 NW: 295
48 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 165
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 95

24H: 2022/02/22 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 555 SW: 465 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 345 SW: 295 NW: 280
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 95

36H: 2022/02/22 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 535 SW: 350 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SW: 205 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 55

48H: 2022/02/23 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 520 SW: 350 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 325 SW: 165 NW: 175

60H: 2022/02/23 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 520 SW: 350 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 220

72H: 2022/02/24 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 510 SW: 370 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 335 SW: 250 NW: 230

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/25 06 UTC: 31.1 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 565 SW: 415 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SW: 305 NW: 250

120H: 2022/02/26 06 UTC: 32.5 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 665 SW: 575 NW: 510
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 455 SW: 380 NW: 325

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0;CI=5.5


DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, EMNATI HAS BEEN UNDERGOING A PROCESS OF
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC), WITH A WEAKENING OF THE INITIAL
INNER CORE AND A STRENGTHENING OF THE NEW OUTER CORE, AS SHOWN BY THE
COMPARISON BETWEEN LATE NIGHT SSMIS PASSES AND THE PREVIOUS AMSR2
PASS. THE INNER RING IS STILL VISIBLE ON CLASSICAL SATELLITE IMAGERY,
BUT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NOW PROBABLY LOCATED IN THE NEW OUTER RING.
THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS BEEN INCREASED ACCORDINGLY AS WELL AS
THE EXTENSION OF STRONG WINDS AT THE CYCLONE'S PERIPHERY. OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE SINCE YESTERDAY 18UTC,
CONSISTENT WITH THE ERC PROCESS. A SMAP PASS AT 0223Z SHOWS WINDS AT
78KT AND CONFIRMS THE BROADENING OF RMW. THE CYCLONE'S INTENSITY IS
THUS ESTIMATED AT 85KT, MAKING EMNATI TEMPORARILY GO BACK DOWN TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.

IN THE SHORT RUN, EMNATI'S TRACK FOLLOWS A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WEST
DIRECTION UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THEN
SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG DISPERSION
CONCERNING THE LATITUDE OF LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR ON TUESDAY
EVENING. TO PARTLY TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE GFS/GEFS MODEL MAKING THE
CYCLONE PASS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE, THE TRACK
HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SHIFTED SOUTHWARDS. WITH THE SHIFT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM, EMNATI SHOULD
CROSS THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR ON A SOUTH-WESTERN TRACK, TO EMERGE OFF
THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. BACK OVER SEA, EMNATI
WILL FOLLOW A WEAKNESS OF THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTH AND
TURN MORE SHARPLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES WHILE SLOWING
DOWN ITS MOVEMENT.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE
WITH LOW SHEAR AND VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, EMNATI IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN
INTENSITY IN THE VERY SHORT TERM BEFORE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AGAIN AS
IT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR ON TUESDAY. EMNATI SHOULD
THUS RE-INTENSIFY TO THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL ITS
LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR TUESDAY EVENING. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, EMNATI IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE AT SEA IN A WEAKENED STATE AND
IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A SHORT-LIVED AND LIMITED RE-INTENSIFICATION
PHASE BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM BY MOVING OVER
COLDER WATERS AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND
DRY AIR ADVECTION OVER THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- REUNION ISLAND : DISTURBED WEATHER REMAINING THIS MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE CYCLONE WHICH IS MOVING AWAY VERY SLOWLY. MAXIMUM GUSTS
OF 100-120 KM/H ON THE COAST, 120-140 KM/H IN THE HIGHLANDS, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH SWELL ON THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THEN ON TUESDAY.
- MADAGASCAR : EMNATI IS A DANGEROUS CYCLONE WHICH SHOULD MAKE
LANDFALL ON TUESDAY EVENING AT THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE, THUS POSING A VERY SERIOUS THREAT FOR THE LANDFALL AREA,
WHICH LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE MOST PROBABLE IMPACTED AREA
HAS BEEN SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH AND SEEMS TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN NOSY
VARIKA AND FARAFANGANA (FIANARANTSOA PROVINCE). INHABITANTS ARE
INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND TO
FOLLOW AUTHORITIES RECOMMENDATIONS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 210621
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/02/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 21/02/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI) 954 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 53.5 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SECTOR.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 160 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 200
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/21 AT 18 UTC:
19.0 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 NM SE: 290 NM SW: 250 NM NW: 200 NM
34 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 160 NM
48 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 90 NM
64 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/22 AT 06 UTC:
20.3 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 NM SE: 300 NM SW: 250 NM NW: 210 NM
34 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 150 NM
48 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 70 NM
64 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 50 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 210032
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/5/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 21/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.6 S / 54.1 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 952 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 445 SO: 390 NO: 365
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 205 SO: 335 NO: 305
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 170
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/02/2022 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 530 SO: 445 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 295 SO: 295 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85

24H: 22/02/2022 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 545 SO: 315 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SO: 240 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85

36H: 22/02/2022 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 500 SO: 205 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 285 SO: 165 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 23/02/2022 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 23/02/2022 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 500 SO: 445 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SO: 315 NO: 205

72H: 24/02/2022 00 UTC: 25.9 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 520 SO: 380 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 205

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/02/2022 00 UTC: 29.9 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 545 SO: 400 NO: 380
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SO: 270 NO: 250

120H: 26/02/2022 00 UTC: 32.7 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 530 SO: 545 NO: 445
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 345 SO: 390 NO: 280

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0 ET CI=5.5


AU COURS DES 6 HEURES DERNIERES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DU CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE EMNATI A SUBI D'IMPORTANTES FLUCTUATIONS. L'OEIL
S'EST PROGRESSIVEMENT CONTRACTE TOUT EN DEVENANT PLUS CHAUD ET MOINS
BIEN DEFINI. LE MUR DE L'OEIL S'EST EGALEMENT REFROIDI SUR LES DEUX
DERNIERES HEURES AVANT UNE PHASE DE RECHAUFFEMENT. A NOTER EGALEMENT
QUE EMNATI A EU UN DEPLACEMENT ERRATIQUE EN PASSANT AU NORD DES
MASCAREIGNES. CES FLUCTUATIONS IMPORTANTES SONT CERTAINEMENT A METTRE
SUR LE COMPTE DE LA PHASE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL QUI EST EN
COURS, COMME LE LAISSE SUGGERER L'AMSR2 DE 2209Z QUI MONTRE LE MUR
INTERNE ENTOURA PAR UN MUR EXTERNE EN VOIE DE CONSTITUTION.

L'INTENSITE COURANTE EST PORTEE A 90 KT AU STADE MINIMAL DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE, EN COHERENCE AVEC LES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES
MOYENNEES SUR 3 HEURES TOURNANT AUTOUR DE 5.0, ET DES ANALYSES
OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES (SATCON, ADT ET AIDT).

A COURTE ECHEANCE, PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE:
EMNATI CONTINUE SA TRAJECTOIRE SUR UN CAP EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-EST
DU SYSTEME. LE CONSENSUS DANS LES GUIDANCES SE CONFIRME POUR UN
PASSAGE A UNE DISTANCE DE LA REUNION A PRES DE 380KM. EN DEBUT DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE, UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE ARRIVE PAR LE SUD-OUEST
FAVORISANT LE MAINTIEN DE LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST
JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR, PREVU MARDI DANS
L'APRES-MIDI/SOIREE. AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
SUD-EST DU SYSTEME, EMNATI DEVRAIT TRAVERSER MADAGASCAR EN PRENANT
UNE DIRECTION SUD-OUEST, EN ACCELERANT, POUR RESSORTIR DANS LE CANAL
DE MOZAMBIQUE MERCREDI. DE RETOUR EN MER, EMNATI PROFITERA D'UNE
FAIBLESSE DES HAUTS GA OPOTENTIELS AU SUD POUR PRENDRE UNE DIRECTION
SUD-SUD-OUEST PLUS FRANCHE EN DIRECTION DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT TRES
FAVORABLES AVEC DES EAUX CHAUDES, UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT ET UNE TRES
BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. TOUTEFOIS AVEC LA PHASE DE REMPLACEMENT
DU MUR DE L'OEIL EN COURS, EMNATI DEVRAIT A COURT TERME STATIONNER EN
INTENSITA AVANT DE SE RENFORCER LENTEMENT A NOUVEAU AU FIL DE SA
PROGRESSION VERS LES COTES DE MADAGASCAR. EMNATI DEVRAIT AINSI SE
RE-INTENSIFIER PROGRESSIVEMENT JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR
MADAGASCAR, PROFITANT DES EXCELLENTES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES.
MERCREDI SOIR, VOIRE JEUDI, EMNATI DEVRAIT DEBOUCHER DANS LE CANAL DE
MOZAMBIQUE A UN STADE BIEN AFFAIBLI ET DEVRAIT CONNAITRE UNE COURTE
PHASE DE RE-INTENSIFICATION LORS DE SA PLONGEE VERS LES MOYENNES
LATITUDES AVANT D'EVOLUER VERS UN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL EN FIN DE
SEMAINE.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS, LES CONDITIONS CONTINUENT DE SE DEGRADER SUR LA
REUNION: AVEC LA CIRCULATION D'EMNATI AU NORD-NORD-OUEST DE LA
REUNION, LES PRECIPITATIONS SONT ESSENTIELLEMENT LOCALISA ES SUR LE
MASSIF DU VOLCAN AINSI QUE DANS L'INTERIEUR DE L'A LE. CES PLUIES
PERDURERONT UNE BONNE PARTIE DE LA JOURNA E AVANT DE S'ESTOMPER
PROGRESSIVEMENT EN FIN DE JOURNA E ET PLUS FRANCHEMENT MARDI. EN
TERMES DE VENT, LES RAFALES MAXIMALES SONT PREVUES CULMINER A
110/120 KM/H SUR LE LITTORAL ET A JUSQU'A 130/140 DANS LES HAUTS
EXPOSES SCENARIO. MALGRE L'ELOIGNEMENT D'EMNATI VERS MADAGASCAR, LES
VENTS FORTS PERDURERONT UNE BONNE PARTIE DE LA JOURNA E DE LUNDI. CE
N'EST QUE DEMAIN MARDI QUE NOUS DEVRIONS VOIR UNE NETTE AMELIORATION.

A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LA ZONE D'IMPACT SUR LA COTE EST DE
MADAGASCAR, ATTENDU EN JOURNEE DE MARDI, RESTE ENCORE ASSEZ
INCERTAINE AU VU DE LA DISPERSION DES MODELES, MAIS LA ZONE LA PLUS
PROBABLE D'IMPACT SEMBLE SE SITUER ENTRE VATOMANDRY ET FARAFANGANA,
MEME SI DES SCENARIOS ALTERNATIFS RESTENT ENCORE POSSIBLES.

LES HABITANTS DES MASCAREIGNES ET DE LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR SONT
DONC INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 210032
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/5/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/21 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 54.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 952 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 445 SW: 390 NW: 365
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 205 SW: 335 NW: 305
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 170
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/21 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 530 SW: 445 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85

24H: 2022/02/22 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 545 SW: 315 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85

36H: 2022/02/22 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 500 SW: 205 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 285 SW: 165 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2022/02/23 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2022/02/23 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 500 SW: 445 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 315 NW: 205

72H: 2022/02/24 00 UTC: 25.9 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 520 SW: 380 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 205

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/25 00 UTC: 29.9 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 545 SW: 400 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 250

120H: 2022/02/26 00 UTC: 32.7 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 530 SW: 545 NW: 445
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 345 SW: 390 NW: 280

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 AND CI=5.5


OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN OF THE INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE EMNATI HAS UNDERGONE SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS. THE EYE HAS
PROGRESSIVELY CONTRACTED WHILE BECOMING WARMER AND LESS WELL DEFINED.
THE EYE WALL HAS ALSO COOLED DURING THE LAST TWO HOURS BEFORE A
WARMING PHASE. NOTE ALSO THAT EMNATI HAD AN ERRATIC DISPLACEMENT WHEN
PASSING NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES. THESE IMPORTANT FLUCTUATIONS ARE
CERTAINLY DUE TO THE PHASE OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WHICH IS
IN PROGRESS, AS SUGGESTED BY THE 2209Z AMSR2 WHICH SHOWS THE INTERNAL
WALL SURROUNDED BY AN EXTERNAL WALL IN THE PROCESS OF CONSTITUTION.

THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS LEFT TO 90 KT AT THE MINIMAL STAGE OF
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, IN COHERENCE WITH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSES AVERAGED OVER 3 HOURS AROUND 5.0, AND THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
AVAILABLE (SATCON, ADT AND AIDT).

IN THE SHORT TERM, NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF EXPECTED TRAJECTORY: EMNATI
CONTINUES ITS TRACK ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WEST COURSE UNDER THE
EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDELINES IS CONFIRMED FOR A PASSAGE AT A DISTANCE
OF ABOUT 380KM FROM THE REUNION. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, A NEW
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, FAVOURING THE
MAINTENANCE OF THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST TRAJECTORY UNTIL ITS LANDING ON
MADAGASCAR, EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE SHIFT OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, EMNATI SHOULD
CROSS MADAGASCAR IN A SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION, ACCELERATING, TO EXIT
IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY. BACK AT SEA, EMNATI WILL TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF A WEAKNESS OF THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS IN THE SOUTH TO
TAKE A SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION MORE FRANKLY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
LATITUDES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY
FAVORABLE WITH WARM WATERS, LOW SHEAR AND VERY GOOD ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER, WITH THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT PHASE IN PROGRESS,
EMNATI SHOULD REMAIN IN THE SHORT TERM IN INTENSITY BEFORE SLOWLY
STRENGTHENING AGAIN AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR.
EMNATI SHOULD THUS GRADUALLY RE-INTENSIFY UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL
OVER MADAGASCAR, TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, OR EVEN THURSDAY, EMNATI SHOULD
ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN A WEAKENED STATE AND SHOULD
EXPERIENCE A SHORT RE-INTENSIFICATION PHASE AS IT DIVES TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ON
REUNION: WITH THE CIRCULATION OF EMNATI IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
REUNION, THE PRECIPITATIONS ARE ESSENTIALLY LOCALIZED ON THE VOLCANO
MASSIF AND INLAND. THESE RAINS WILL LAST A GOOD PART OF THE DAY
BEFORE FADING GRADUALLY AT THE END OF THE DAY AND MORE FRANKLY ON
TUESDAY. IN TERMS OF WIND, THE MAXIMUM GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT
110/120 KM/H ON THE COAST AND UP TO 130/140 IN THE HILLS. IN SPITE OF
THE DISTANCE OF EMNATI TOWARDS MADAGASCAR, THE STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. IT IS ONLY TOMORROW
TUESDAY THAT WE SHOULD SEE A CLEAR IMPROVEMENT.

IN THE LONGER TIME SCALES, THE IMPACT AREA ON THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR, EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DISPERSION OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS, BUT THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT AREA
SEEMS TO BE BETWEEN VATOMANDRY AND FARAFANGANA, EVEN IF ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIOS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND OF THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR ARE THUS INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 210004
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/02/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 21/02/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI) 952 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 54.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EAST AND NORTH-WEST SECTORS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 91 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 165 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 181 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 170
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 198 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/21 AT 12 UTC:
18.7 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 210 NM SE: 285 NM SW: 240 NM NW: 195 NM
34 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 125 NM
48 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 65 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/22 AT 00 UTC:
20.0 S / 50.8 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 210 NM SE: 295 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 185 NM
34 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 125 NM
48 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 65 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 202100
WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 220220200639
2022022018 13S EMNATI 010 01 270 06 SATL RADR 015
T000 176S 0546E 110 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 095 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 190 SE QD 165 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 182S 0532E 110 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 205 SE QD 175 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 190S 0516E 120 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 230 SE QD 190 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 201S 0498E 110 R064 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 220 SE QD 180 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 215S 0478E 085 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 247S 0441E 045 R034 170 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 278S 0416E 050 R050 020 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 230 SE QD 180 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 319S 0413E 050 R050 020 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 270 SE QD 220 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 17.6S 54.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 54.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.2S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.0S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.1S 49.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.5S 47.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.7S 44.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 27.8S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.9S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 54.3E.
20FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
201800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z. //
1322021418 145S 793E 20
1322021500 146S 773E 20
1322021506 144S 755E 20
1322021512 143S 738E 25
1322021518 142S 720E 30
1322021600 141S 708E 30
1322021606 140S 701E 30
1322021612 140S 692E 30
1322021618 141S 684E 35
1322021700 141S 674E 45
1322021706 140S 658E 50
1322021706 140S 658E 50
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021800 137S 633E 55
1322021800 137S 633E 55
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
1322022012 176S 552E 115
1322022012 176S 552E 115
1322022012 176S 552E 115
1322022018 176S 546E 110
1322022018 176S 546E 110
1322022018 176S 546E 110
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 17.6S 54.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 54.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.2S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.0S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.1S 49.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.5S 47.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.7S 44.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 27.8S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.9S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 54.3E.
20FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
201800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z. //
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 201915
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/5/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 20/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.6 S / 54.6 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 947 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 445 SO: 390 NO: 365
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 205 SO: 335 NO: 305
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 170
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/02/2022 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 510 SO: 400 NO: 380
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SO: 285 NO: 240
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75

24H: 21/02/2022 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 545 SO: 400 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SO: 280 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75

36H: 22/02/2022 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 510 SO: 270 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 285 SO: 215 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 75

48H: 22/02/2022 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 510 SO: 175 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 295 SO: 120 NO: 155

60H: 23/02/2022 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 46.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 520 SO: 305 NO: 260

72H: 23/02/2022 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 520 SO: 350 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SO: 240 NO: 220

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/02/2022 18 UTC: 29.1 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 520 SO: 350 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 325 SO: 260 NO: 220

120H: 25/02/2022 18 UTC: 32.6 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 530 SO: 480 NO: 435
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 345 SO: 350 NO: 270

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5+

AU COURS DES 6 HEURES DERNIERES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL S'EST
MAINTENUE. TOUTEFOIS LES PASSES SSMIS DE 1432Z ET GMI DE 1409Z
TEMOIGNENT D'UN DA BUT DE REMPLACEMENT DU CYCLE DE L'OEIL. LA DONNEE
SAR DE 1440Z, AINS QUE LA DONNEE SMOS DE 1410Z NE PLAIDENT PAS POUR
UNE INTENSIFICATION D'EMNATI. DEPLUS LES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES
MOYENNEES SUR 3 HEURES DONNENT DU 5.5+ DEFINISSANT TOUJOURS DES VENTS
ESTIMES DE L'ORDRE DE 95KT, AU STADE MINIMAL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE. EN CONSEQUENCE L'INTENSITE COURANTE DU SYSTEME EST LAISSEE A
95KT.

A COURTE ECHEANCE, PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE:
EMNATI CONTINUE SA TRAJECTOIRE SUR UN CAP EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE AU SUD-EST. LE CONSENSUS
DANS LES GUIDANCES SE CONFIRME POUR UN PASSAGE A UNE DISTANCE DE LA
REUNION A PRES DE 350KM. PAR LA SUITE, UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE ARRIVE
PAR LE SUD-OUEST FAVORISANT LE MAINTIEN DE LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR, A ECHEANCE
DE MARDI EN FIN DE JOURNEE. EMNATI DEVRAIT TRAVERSER LA GRANDE TERRE
EN ACCELERANT POUR RESSORTIR SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EN FIN DE
JOURNEE DE MERCREDI. UNE FOIS SUR MER, EMNATI PRENDRA UNE DIRECTION
SUD-SUD-OUEST PLUS FRANCHE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
FAVORABLES AVEC DES EAUX CHAUDES, DU CISAILLEMENT EN BAISSE ET UNE
TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. EMNATI POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS DEBUTER
PONCTUELLEMENT UNE LEGERE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LES
PREMICES D'UN NOUVEAU CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL. EMNATI
DEVRAIT DONC RESTER AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE EN
S'INTENSIFIE REGULIERMENT JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR,
LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTANT BONNES. A PLUS LONGUES
ECHEANCES, EMNATI RESSORTIRA SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE BIEN AFFAIBLI
ET S'INTENSIFIERA LENTEMENT LORS DE SA PLONGEE VERS LES LATITUDES
PLUS SUD EN MIGRANT EN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL A ECHEANCE DE JEUDI.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS, LES CONDITIONS CONTINUENT DE SE DEGRADER SUR LA
REUNION. LE SCENARIO LE PLUS PROBABLE DONNE DES CONDITIONS DE COUP DE
VENT (ASSOCIEES A DES RAFALES A 90-100 KM/H SUR MER). EN MARGE DU
COEUR ACTIF DU SYSTEME, LES FORTES PLUIES SE LIMITERAIENT AUX ZONES
DE RELIEF. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LA ZONE D'IMPACT SUR LA COTE EST
DE MADAGASCAR, ATTENDU EN JOURNEE DE MARDI, RESTE ENCORE ASSEZ
INCERTAINE, MAIS LA ZONE LA PLUS PROBABLE D'IMPACT SEMBLANT ETRE
ENTRE VATOMANDRY ET FARAFANGANA, MEME SI DES SCENARIOS ALTERNATIFS
RESTENT POSSIBLES.

LES HABITANTS DES MASCAREIGNES ET DE LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR SONT
DONC INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 201915
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/5/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/20 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 54.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 947 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 445 SW: 390 NW: 365
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 205 SW: 335 NW: 305
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 170
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/21 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 510 SW: 400 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SW: 285 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

24H: 2022/02/21 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 545 SW: 400 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75

36H: 2022/02/22 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 510 SW: 270 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75

48H: 2022/02/22 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 510 SW: 175 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 295 SW: 120 NW: 155

60H: 2022/02/23 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 46.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 520 SW: 305 NW: 260

72H: 2022/02/23 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 520 SW: 350 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 220

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/24 18 UTC: 29.1 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 520 SW: 350 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 325 SW: 260 NW: 220

120H: 2022/02/25 18 UTC: 32.6 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 530 SW: 480 NW: 435
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 345 SW: 350 NW: 270

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. HOWEVER,
THE SSMIS PASS AT 1432Z AND THE GMI PASS AT 1409Z SHOW THE BEGINNING
OF A EYE CYCLE REPLACEMENT. THE 1440Z DATA SAR , AS WELL AS THE 1410Z
SMOS SWATH DO NOT SUPPORT AN INTENSIFICATION OF EMNATI. MOREOVER,
THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS AVERAGED OVER 3 HOURS GIVES A FT OF
5.5+, ALWAYS DEFINING ESTIMATED WINDS OF ABOUT 95KT, AT THE MINIMAL
STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY THE CURRENT INTENSITY
OF THE SYSTEM IS LEFT AT 95KT

IN THE SHORT TERM, NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF EXPECTED TRAJECTORY: EMNATI
CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WEST COURSE UNDER
THE EFFECT OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-EAST. THE CONSENSUS IN THE
GUIDELINES IS CONFIRMED FOR A PASSAGE AT A DISTANCE OF ABOUT 350KM
FROM THE ISLAND OF REUNION. THEREAFTER, A NEW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, FAVORING THE MAINTENANCE OF THE
WEST-SOUTH-WEST TRACK UNTIL ITS LANDING ON MADAGASCAR, ON TUESDAY
DURING THE DAY, BETWEEN MANANJARY AND VATOMANDRY. EMNATI IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE MAINLAND AT HIGH SPEED AND EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL IN THE AFTERNOON OF WEDNESDAY. ONCE ON THE SEA, EMNATI WILL
TAKE A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

IIN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
WITH WARM WATERS, DECREASING SHEAR AND A VERY GOOD ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER, EMNATI COULD START A SLIGHT WEAKENING PHASE AT
SOME POINT, IN CONNECTION WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF A NEW EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE. EMNATI SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN AT THE STAGE OF AN
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, INTENSIFYING REGULARLY UNTIL IT MAKES
LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR, WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINING
GOOD. IN THE LONGER TERM, EMNATI WILL EMERGE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL MUCH WEAKENED AND WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT DIVES SOUTHWARD
INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM BY THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER REUNION.
THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO GIVES GALE CONDITIONS (ASSOCIATED WITH
GUSTS TO 90-100 KM/H ON SEA). AT THE MARGIN OF THE ACTIVE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM, THE HEAVY RAINS WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE RELIEF AREAS. IN THE
LONGER TIME SCALES, THE IMPACT AREA ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR,
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN, BUT THE MOST PROBABLE
IMPACT AREA SEEMS TO BE BETWEEN VATOMANDRY AND FARAFANGANA, EVEN IF
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND OF THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR ARE THUS INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 201809
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/02/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 20/02/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI) 947 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 54.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 91 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 165 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 181 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 170
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 198 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/21 AT 06 UTC:
18.3 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 210 NM SE: 275 NM SW: 215 NM NW: 205 NM
34 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 130 NM
48 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 60 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/21 AT 18 UTC:
19.2 S / 51.8 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 295 NM SW: 215 NM NW: 190 NM
34 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 125 NM
48 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 65 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 201221
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/5/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 20/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.6 S / 55.3 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE CINQ DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 948 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 445 SO: 390 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/02/2022 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 490 SO: 425 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SO: 285 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75

24H: 21/02/2022 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 500 SO: 405 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SO: 280 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75

36H: 22/02/2022 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 535 SO: 325 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SO: 240 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85

48H: 22/02/2022 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 480 SO: 185 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SO: 140 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 55 NO: 65

60H: 23/02/2022 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 510 SO: 100 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 305 SO: 75 NO: 175

72H: 23/02/2022 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 455 SO: 380 NO: 280

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/02/2022 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 480 SO: 325 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SO: 205 NO: 205

120H: 25/02/2022 12 UTC: 30.4 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 500 SO: 425 NO: 455
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SO: 325 NO: 280

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, L'OEIL D'EMNATI EST DEVENU
PROGRESSIVEMENT MIEUX DEFINI, ET PLUS CHAUD.
CES SIGNES D'INTENSIFICATION TRADUISENT LA BAISSE EN COURS DU
CISAILLEMENT, (SEULEMENT 5/10KT SELON LES DERNIEREES ANALYSES DU
CIMSS).
LA DERNIERE PASSE AMSR2 DE 0938UTC CONFIRME EGALEMENT
L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME.
L'ANALYSE DVORAK MOYENNEE SUR 6H PERMET D'OBTENIR UNE VALEUR DE 5.5+
DEFINISSANT DES VENTS ESTIMES DE L'ORDRE DE 95KT, ET LE STADE MINIMAL
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. EMNATI EST DONC EN PHASE
D'INTENSIFICATION AVEC TOUTEFOIS QUELQUES SIGNAUX DE DECLENCHEMENT DE
CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL POUVANT FAIRE VARIER
L'INTENSITE A LA BAISSE.

A COURTE ECHEANCE, PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE:
EMNATI CONTINUE SA TRAJECTOIRE SUR UN CAP EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE AU SUD-EST. LE CONSENSUS
DANS LES GUIDANCES SE CONFIRME POUR UN PASSAGE A UNE DISTANCE DE LA
REUNION A ENVIRON 350KM. PAR LA SUITE, UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE ARRIVE
PAR LE SUD-OUEST FAVORISANT LE MAINTIEN DE LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR, A ECHEANCE
DE MARDI EN COURS DE JOURNEE. EMNATI DEVRAIT TRAVERSER LA GRANDE
TERRE EN ACCELERANT POUR RESSORTIR SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EN FIN
DE JOURNEE DE MERCREDI. UNE FOIS SUR MER, EMNATI PRENDRA UNE
DIRECTION SUD-SUD-OUEST PLUS FRANCHE.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
FAVORABLES AVEC DES EAUX CHAUDES, DU CISAILLEMENT EN BAISSE ET UNE
TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. EMNATI SE TROUVE DONC MAINTENANT
DANS UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION L'AMENANT AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE DURANT SON PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES DES MASCAREIGNES.
L'INTENSIFICATION POURRAIT ETRE TEMPORAIREMENT GENEE PAR DES VELEITES
DE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL. MAIS GLOBALEMENT, EMNATI
VA S'INTENSIFIE REGULIERMENT JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR,
LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTANT BONNES. A PLUS LONGUES
ECHEANCES, EMNATI RESSORTIRA SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE BIEN AFFAIBLI
ET S'INTENSIFIERA LENTEMENT LORS DE SA PLONGEE VERS LES LATITUDES
PLUS SUD EN MIGRANT EN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL A ECHEANCE DE JEUDI.

EN TERME D'IMPACTS, LES CONDITIONS CONTINUENT DE SE DEGRADER SUR LA
REUNION. LE SCENARIO LE PLUS PROBABLE DONNE DES CONDITIONS DE COUP DE
VENT (ASSOCIEES A DES RAFALES A 90-100 KM/H SUR MER). EN MARGE DU
COEUR ACTIF DU SYSTEME, LES FORTES PLUIES SE LIMITERAIENT AUX ZONES
DE RELIEF. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LA ZONE D'IMPACT SUR LA COTE EST
DE MADAGASCAR, ATTENDU EN JOURNEE DE MARDI, RESTE ENCORE ASSEZ
INCERTAINE, MAIS LA ZONE LA PLUS PROBABLE D'IMPACT SEMBLANT ETRE
ENTRE VATOMANDRY ET MANANJARY, MEME SI DES SCENARIOS ALTERNATIFS
RESTENT POSSIBLES.

LES HABITANTS DES MASCAREIGNES ET DE LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR SONT
DONC INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 201221
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/5/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 55.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 948 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 445 SW: 390 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/21 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 490 SW: 425 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SW: 285 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

24H: 2022/02/21 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 500 SW: 405 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

36H: 2022/02/22 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 535 SW: 325 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SW: 240 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85

48H: 2022/02/22 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 480 SW: 185 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 140 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 65

60H: 2022/02/23 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 510 SW: 100 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 305 SW: 75 NW: 175

72H: 2022/02/23 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 455 SW: 380 NW: 280

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/24 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 480 SW: 325 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SW: 205 NW: 205

120H: 2022/02/25 12 UTC: 30.4 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 500 SW: 425 NW: 455
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SW: 325 NW: 280

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE OF EMNATI HAS BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
BETTER DEFINED, AND WARMER.
THESE SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION REFLECT THE ONGOING DECREASE OF THE
SHEAR, (ONLY 5/10KT ACCORDING TO THE LAST CIMSS ANALYSIS).
THE LAST AMSR2 PASS OF 0938UTC STILL SHOWS A SLIGHT TILD OF THE
ALTITUDE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST.
THE DVORAK ANALYSIS AVERAGED OVER 6H GIVES A VALUE OF 5.5+ DEFINING
ESTIMATED WINDS OF ABOUT 95KT, AND THE MINIMUM STAGE OF INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. EMNATI IS THUS IN PHASE OF INTENSIFICATION WITH
HOWEVER SOME SIGNALS OF TRIGGERING OF CYCLE OF REPLACEMENT OF THE
EYEWALL WHICH CAN MAKE THE INTENSITY VARY DOWNWARDS.

IN THE SHORT TERM, NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF EXPECTED TRAJECTORY: EMNATI
CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WEST COURSE UNDER
THE EFFECT OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-EAST. THE CONSENSUS IN THE
GUIDELINES IS CONFIRMED FOR A PASSAGE AT A DISTANCE OF ABOUT 350KM
FROM THE ISLAND OF REUNION. THEREAFTER, A NEW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, FAVORING THE MAINTENANCE OF THE
WEST-SOUTH-WEST TRACK UNTIL ITS LANDING ON MADAGASCAR, ON TUESDAY
DURING THE DAY, BETWEEN MANANJARY AND VATOMANDRY. EMNATI IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE MAINLAND AT HIGH SPEED AND EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL IN THE AFTERNOON OF WEDNESDAY. ONCE ON THE SEA, EMNATI WILL
TAKE A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
WITH WARM WATERS, DECREASING SHEAR AND A VERY GOOD ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE. EMNATI IS NOW IN AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE LEADING IT TO
THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER ITS PASSAGE NEAR THE
MASCARENE ISLANDS. THE INTENSIFICATION COULD BE TEMPORARILY GENERATED
BY THE FEATURES OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. BUT OVERALL, EMNATI
WILL INTENSIFY STEADILY UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR, WITH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINING GOOD. ON LONGER TIME SCALES,
EMNATI WILL EMERGE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL MUCH WEAKENED AND WILL
SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM
BY THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER REUNION.
THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO GIVES GALE CONDITIONS (ASSOCIATED WITH
GUSTS TO 90-100 KM/H ON SEA). AT THE MARGIN OF THE ACTIVE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM, THE HEAVY RAINS WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE RELIEF AREAS. IN THE
LONGER TIME SCALES, THE IMPACT AREA ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR,
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN, BUT THE MOST PROBABLE
IMPACT AREA SEEMS TO BE BETWEEN VATOMANDRY AND MANANJARY, EVEN IF
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND OF THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR ARE THUS INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 201209
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/02/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 20/02/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI) 948 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 55.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EAST AND THE NORTH-WESTERN SECTORS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 180
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 210 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/21 AT 00 UTC:
18.0 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 225 NM SE: 265 NM SW: 230 NM NW: 200 NM
34 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 125 NM
48 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 65 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/21 AT 12 UTC:
18.6 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 NM SE: 270 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 180 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 120 NM
48 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 60 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 200900
WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 220220072014
2022022006 13S EMNATI 009 01 260 07 SATL RADR 030
T000 172S 0559E 105 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 095 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 165 SW QD 170 NW QD
T012 175S 0545E 110 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 181S 0531E 115 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 210 SE QD 190 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 190S 0515E 115 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 220 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 199S 0498E 110 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 224S 0463E 060 R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 255S 0429E 040 R034 140 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 290S 0408E 050 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 220 SE QD 190 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 55.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 55.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.5S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.1S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.0S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.9S 49.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.4S 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.5S 42.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.0S 40.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 55.5E.
20FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 191
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z.
//
1322021418 145S 793E 20
1322021500 146S 773E 20
1322021506 144S 755E 20
1322021512 143S 738E 25
1322021518 142S 720E 30
1322021600 141S 708E 30
1322021606 140S 701E 30
1322021612 140S 692E 30
1322021618 141S 684E 35
1322021700 141S 674E 45
1322021706 140S 658E 50
1322021706 140S 658E 50
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021800 137S 633E 55
1322021800 137S 633E 55
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021912 163S 581E 70
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322021918 167S 572E 90
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022000 171S 566E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
1322022006 172S 559E 105
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 55.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 55.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.5S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.1S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.0S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.9S 49.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.4S 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.5S 42.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.0S 40.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 55.5E.
20FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 191
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 200600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 200603
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/5/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 20/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 55.9 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE CINQ DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 956 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 445 SO: 405 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/02/2022 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 510 SO: 415 NO: 380
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65

24H: 21/02/2022 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 470 SO: 405 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 270 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65

36H: 21/02/2022 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 510 SO: 360 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SO: 250 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85

48H: 22/02/2022 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 530 SO: 280 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SO: 185 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 75

60H: 22/02/2022 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 510 SO: 165 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SO: 110 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 130

72H: 23/02/2022 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 535 SO: 315 NO: 250

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/02/2022 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 470 SO: 335 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SO: 185 NO: 175

120H: 25/02/2022 06 UTC: 29.6 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 510 SO: 425 NO: 400
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SO: 285 NO: 240
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 40

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, L'OEIL D'EMNATI S'EST MAINTENU,
DEVENANT PROGRESSIVEMENT MIEUX DEFINI, AVEC NEANMOINS DES SOMMETS
NUAGEUX SE RECHAUSSANT EN FIN DE NUIT. LA COMPARAISON DES DEUX
PASSAGES MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 DE 2125UTC, ET SSMIS DE 0006UTC, MONTRENT
UNE CONTRACTION DE L'OEIL ET UNE CONSOLIDATION DU MUR DE L'OEIL.
CES SIGNES D'INTENSIFICATION TRADUISENT LA BAISSE EN COURS DU
CISAILLEMENT, QUI APPARAIT DANS ANALYSES DU CIMSS.
L'ANALYSE DVORAK MOYENNEE SUR 6H PERMET D'OBTENIR UNE VALEUR DE 5.5-
DEFINISSANT DES VENTS ESTIMES DE L'ORDRE DE 85KT. EMNATI EST DONC EN
PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION AVEC TOUTEFOIS QUELQUES SIGNAUX DE
DECLENCHEMENT DE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL POUVANT FAIRE
VARIER L'INTENSITE A LA BAISSE.

A COURTE ECHEANCE, PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE:
EMNATI CONTINUE SA TRAJECTOIRE SUR UN CAP EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE AU SUD-EST. LE CONSENSUS
DANS LES GUIDANCES SE CONFIRME POUR UN PASSAGE A UNE DISTANCE DES
ILES MAURICE ET LA REUNION DE PLUS DE 300KM. PAR LA SUITE, UNE
NOUVELLE DORSALE ARRIVE PAR LE SUD-OUEST FAVORISANT LE MAINTIEN DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR
MADAGASCAR, A ECHEANCE DE MARDI EN COURS DE JOURNEE. EMNATI DEVRAIT
TRAVERSER LA GRANDE TERRE EN ACCELERANT POUR RESSORTIR SUR LE CANAL
DU MOZAMBIQUE EN FIN DE JOURNEE DE MERCREDI. UNE FOIS SUR MER, EMNATI
PRENDRA UNE DIRECTION SUD-SUD-OUEST PLUS FRANCHE.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
FAVORABLES AVEC DES EAUX CHAUDES, DU CISAILLEMENT EN BAISSE ET UNE
TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. EMNATI SE TROUVE DONC MAINTENANT
DANS UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION L'AMENANT AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE DURANT SON PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES DES MASCAREIGNES.
L'INTENSIFICATION POURRAIT ETRE TEMPORAIREMENT GENEE PAR DES VELEITES
DE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL. MAIS GLOBALEMENT, EMNATI
VA S'INTENSIFIE REGULIERMENT JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR,
LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTANT BONNES. A PLUS LONGUES
ECHEANCES, EMNATI RESSORTIRA SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE BIEN AFFAIBLI
ET S'INTENSIFIERA LENTEMENT LORS DE SA PLONGEE VERS LES LATITUDES
PLUS SUD EN MIGRANT EN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL A ECHEANCE DE JEUDI.

EN TERME D'IMPACTS, LES CONDITIONS CONTINUENT DE SE DEGRADER SUR
MAURICE ET LA REUNION. LE SCENARIO LE PLUS PROBABLE DONNE DES
CONDITIONS DE COUP DE VENT (ASSOCIEES A DES RAFALES A 90-100 KM/H SUR
MER) SUR LES ILES. EN MARGE DU COEUR ACTIF DU SYSTEME, LES FORTES
PLUIES SE LIMITERAIENT AUX ZONES DE RELIEF. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE,
LA ZONE D'IMPACT SUR LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR, ATTENDU EN JOURNEE DE
MARDI, RESTE ENCORE ASSEZ INCERTAINE, MAIS LA ZONE LA PLUS PROBABLE
D'IMPACT SEMBLANT ETRE ENTRE VATOMANDRY ET MANANJARY, MEME SI DES
SCENARIOS ALTERNATIFS RESTENT POSSIBLES.

LES HABITANTS DES MASCAREIGNES ET DE LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR SONT
DONC INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 200603
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/20 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 55.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 956 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 445 SW: 405 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/20 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 510 SW: 415 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2022/02/21 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 470 SW: 405 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 270 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65

36H: 2022/02/21 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 510 SW: 360 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85

48H: 2022/02/22 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 530 SW: 280 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 75

60H: 2022/02/22 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 510 SW: 165 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 110 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 130

72H: 2022/02/23 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 535 SW: 315 NW: 250

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/24 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 470 SW: 335 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 185 NW: 175

120H: 2022/02/25 06 UTC: 29.6 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 510 SW: 425 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE OF EMNATI HAS BEEN MAINTAINED,
BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY BETTER DEFINED, WITH NEVERTHELESS CLOUDY TOPS
RE-CLADDING AT THE END OF THE NIGHT. THE COMPARISON OF THE TWO
MICROWAVE PASSAGES AMSR2 FROM 2125UTC, AND SSMIS FROM 0006UTC, SHOW A
CONTRACTION OF THE EYE AND A CONSOLIDATION OF THE EYE WALL.
THESE SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION REFLECT THE ONGOING DECREASE IN
SHEAR, WHICH APPEARS IN THE CIMSS ANALYSIS.
THE DVORAK ANALYSIS AVERAGED OVER 6H GIVES A VALUE OF 5.5- DEFINING
ESTIMATED WINDS OF ABOUT 85KT. EMNATI IS THUS IN PHASE OF
INTENSIFICATION WITH HOWEVER SOME SIGNALS OF TRIGGERING OF CYCLE OF
REPLACEMENT OF THE EYEWALL WHICH CAN MAKE THE INTENSITY VARY
DOWNWARDS.

IN THE SHORT TERM, NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF EXPECTED TRAJECTORY: EMNATI
CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WEST COURSE UNDER
THE EFFECT OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-EAST. THE CONSENSUS IN THE
GUIDELINES IS CONFIRMED FOR A PASSAGE AT A DISTANCE OF MORE THAN
300KM FROM THE ISLANDS OF MAURITIUS AND REUNION. THEREAFTER, A NEW
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, FAVORING THE
MAINTENANCE OF THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST TRACK UNTIL ITS LANDING ON
MADAGASCAR, ON TUESDAY DURING THE DAY, BETWEEN MANANJARY AND
VATOMANDRY. EMNATI IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MAINLAND AT HIGH SPEED
AND EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE AFTERNOON OF WEDNESDAY.
ONCE ON THE SEA, EMNATI WILL TAKE A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
WITH WARM WATERS, DECREASING SHEAR AND A VERY GOOD ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE. EMNATI IS NOW IN AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE LEADING IT TO
THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER ITS PASSAGE NEAR THE
MASCARENE ISLANDS. THE INTENSIFICATION COULD BE TEMPORARILY GENERATED
BY THE FEATURES OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. BUT OVERALL, EMNATI
WILL INTENSIFY STEADILY UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR, WITH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINING GOOD. ON LONGER TIME SCALES,
EMNATI WILL EMERGE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL MUCH WEAKENED AND WILL
SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM
BY THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER
MAURITIUS AND REUNION. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO GIVES GALE
CONDITIONS (ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTS TO 90-100 KM/H ON SEA) ON THE
ISLANDS. AT THE MARGIN OF THE ACTIVE CORE OF THE SYSTEM, THE HEAVY
RAINS WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE RELIEF AREAS. IN THE LONGER TIME
SCALES, THE IMPACT AREA ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY, IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN, BUT THE MOST PROBABLE IMPACT AREA
SEEMS TO BE BETWEEN VATOMANDRY AND MANANJARY, EVEN IF ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIOS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND OF THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR ARE THUS INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 200603
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/02/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 20/02/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI) 956 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 55.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-EAST SEMI-CERCLE, AND IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
SECTOR.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 160
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/20 AT 18 UTC:
17.8 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 275 NM SW: 225 NM NW: 205 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 125 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 60 NM
64 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/21 AT 06 UTC:
18.3 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 200 NM SE: 255 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 190 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 115 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 55 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 200027
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/5/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 20/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.0 S / 56.6 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE SIX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 405 SO: 370 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 90 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/02/2022 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 480 SO: 415 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SO: 260 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

24H: 21/02/2022 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 470 SO: 390 NO: 380
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85

36H: 21/02/2022 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 500 SO: 405 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65

48H: 22/02/2022 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 520 SO: 335 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 295 SO: 220 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85

60H: 22/02/2022 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 480 SO: 195 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 120 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 55 NO: 65

72H: 23/02/2022 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 470 SO: 165 NO: 230

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/02/2022 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 415 SO: 350 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 175

120H: 25/02/2022 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 510 SO: 335 NO: 415
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SO: 215 NO: 260

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN OEIL
D'EMNATI A BEAUCOUP EVOLUE PRESENTANT UN OEIL PLUS OU MOINS BIEN
DEFINI. LA DERNIERE PASSE AMSR2 DE 2125UTC PERMET DE NOTER UN LEGER
DECALAGE ENTRE LA LOCALISATION DU CENTRE EN ALTITUDE (QUE NOUS
SUGGERE LES IMAGES INFRA-ROUGES) ET EN BASSES COUCHES. CELA TRADUIT
LA PRESENCE ENCORE MODEREE DU CISAILLEMENT, MAIS QUI FAIBLIT D'APRES
LES ANALYSES DU CIMSS. L'ANALYSE DVORAK MOYENNEE SUR 6H PERMET
D'OBTENIR UNE VALEUR DE 5.0+ DEFINISSANT DES VENTS ESTIMES DE L'ORDRE
DE 80KT. EMNATI EST DONC EN PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION AVEC TOUTEFOIS
QUELQUES SIGNAUX DE DECLENCHEMENT DE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL POUVANT FAIRE VARIER L'INTENSITE A LA BAISSE.

A COURTE ECHEANCE, PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE:
EMNATI CONTINUE SA TRAJECTOIRE SUR UN CAP EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE AU SUD-EST. LE CONSENSUS
DANS LES GUIDANCES SE CONFIRME POUR UN PASSAGE A UNE DISTANCE DES
ILES MAURICE ET LA REUNION D'ENVIRON 330KM +/-100KM. PAR LA SUITE,
UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE ARRIVE PAR LE SUD-OUEST FAVORISANT LE MAINTIEN
DE LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR
MADAGASCAR, A ECHEANCE DE MARDI EN COURS DE JOURNEE, ENTRE MANANJARY
ET VATOMANDRY. EMNATI DEVRAIT TRAVERSER LA GRANDE TERRE EN ACCELERANT
POUR RESSORTIR SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EN COURS D'APRES-MIDI DE
MERCREDI. UNE FOIS SUR MER, EMNATI PRENDRA UNE DIRECTION
SUD-SUD-OUEST PLUS FRANCHE.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
FAVORABLES AVEC DES EAUX CHAUDES, DU CISAILLEMENT EN BAISSE ET UNE
TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. EMNATI SE TROUVE DONC MAINTENANT
DANS UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION L'AMEANT AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE APRES SON PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES DES MASCAREIGNES.
L'INTENSIFICATION POURRAIT ETRE TEMPORAIREMENT GENEE PAR DES VELEITES
DE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL. MAIS GLOBALEMENT, EMNATI
VA S'INTENSIFIE REGULIERMENT JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR,
LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTANT BONNES MALGRE UN
CISAILLEMENT MODERE ENCORE PRESENT. A PLUS LONGUES ECHEANCES, EMNATI
RESSORTIRA SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE BIEN AFFAIBLI ET S'INTENSIFIERA
LENTEMENT LORS DE SA PLONGEE VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD EN MIGRANT
EN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL A ECHEANCE DE JEUDI.

EN TERME D'IMPACTS, LES CONDITIONS CONTINUENT DE SE DEGRADER SUR
MAURICE ET LA REUNION. LE SCENARIO LE PLUS PROBABLE DONNE DES
CONDITIONS DE COUP DE VENT (ASSOCIEES A DES RAFALES A 90-100 KM/H SUR
MER) SUR LES ILES. EN MARGE DU COEUR ACTIF DU SYSTEME, LES FORTES
PLUIES SE LIMITERAIENT AUX ZONES DE RELIEF. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE,
LA ZONE D'IMPACT SUR LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR, ATTENDU EN JOURNEE DE
MARDI, RESTE ENCORE ASSEZ INCERTAINE, MAIS LA ZONE LA PLUS PROBABLE
D'IMPACT SEMBLANT ETRE ENTRE VATOMANDRY ET MANANJARY, MEME SI DES
SCENARIOS ALTERNATIFS RESTENT POSSIBLES.

LES HABITANTS DES MASCAREIGNES ET DE LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR SONT
DONC INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 200027
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/20 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 56.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 405 SW: 370 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/20 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 480 SW: 415 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2022/02/21 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 470 SW: 390 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85

36H: 2022/02/21 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 500 SW: 405 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65

48H: 2022/02/22 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 520 SW: 335 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85

60H: 2022/02/22 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 480 SW: 195 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 120 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 65

72H: 2022/02/23 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 470 SW: 165 NW: 230

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/24 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 415 SW: 350 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 175

120H: 2022/02/25 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 510 SW: 335 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SW: 215 NW: 260

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE CLOUD PATTERN OF EMNATI HAS CHANGED
A LOT, PRESENTING A MORE OR LESS WELL DEFINED EYE. THE LAST AMSR2
PASS OF 2125UTC ALLOWS TO NOTE A SLIGHT SHIFT BETWEEN THE LOCATION OF
THE CENTER IN ALTITUDE (SUGGESTED BY THE INFRA-RED IMAGES) AND IN LOW
LAYERS. THIS REFLECTS THE STILL MODERATE PRESENCE OF SHEAR, BUT WHICH
IS WEAKENING ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS ANALYSIS. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS
AVERAGED OVER 6H GIVES A VALUE OF 5.0+ DEFINING ESTIMATED WINDS OF
ABOUT 80KT. EMNATI IS THUS IN PHASE OF INTENSIFICATION WITH HOWEVER
SOME SIGNALS OF TRIGGERING OF CYCLE OF REPLACEMENT OF THE EYEWALL
WHICH CAN MAKE THE INTENSITY VARY DOWNWARDS.

IN THE SHORT TERM, NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF EXPECTED TRACK: EMNATI
CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST COURSE UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE IS CONFIRMED
FOR A PASSAGE AT A DISTANCE OF ABOUT 330KM +/-100KM FROM MAURITIUS
AND REUNION. THEREAFTER, A NEW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM
THE SOUTH-WEST, FAVORING THE MAINTENANCE OF THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST TRACK
UNTIL ITS LANDING ON MADAGASCAR, ON TUESDAY DURING THE DAY, BETWEEN
MANANJARY AND VATOMANDRY. EMNATI IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MAINLAND AT
HIGH SPEED AND EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE AFTERNOON OF
WEDNESDAY. ONCE ON THE SEA, EMNATI WILL TAKE A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
WITH WARM WATERS, DECREASING SHEAR AND A VERY GOOD ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE. EMNATI IS NOW IN AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE LEADING IT TO
THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER ITS PASSAGE NEAR THE
MASCARENE ISLANDS. THE INTENSIFICATION COULD BE TEMPORARILY GENERATED
BY THE FEATURES OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. BUT OVERALL, EMNATI
WILL INTENSIFY STEADILY UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR, WITH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINING GOOD DESPITE MODERATE SHEAR STILL
PRESENT. ON LONGER TIME SCALES, EMNATI WILL EMERGE OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL MUCH WEAKENED AND WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHWARD INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM BY THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER
MAURITIUS AND REUNION. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO GIVES GALE
CONDITIONS (ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTS TO 90-100 KM/H ON SEA) ON THE
ISLANDS. AT THE MARGIN OF THE ACTIVE CORE OF THE SYSTEM, THE HEAVY
RAINS WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE RELIEF AREAS. IN THE LONGER TIME
SCALES, THE IMPACT AREA ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY, IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN, BUT THE MOST PROBABLE IMPACT AREA
SEEMS TO BE BETWEEN VATOMANDRY AND MANANJARY, EVEN IF ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIOS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND OF THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR ARE THUS INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 200003
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/02/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 20/02/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 56.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 280 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 160
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/20 AT 12 UTC:
17.7 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 260 NM SW: 225 NM NW: 210 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 120 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 55 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/21 AT 00 UTC:
18.1 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 200 NM SE: 255 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 205 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 125 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 65 NM
64 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 192100
WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 220219201646
2022021918 13S EMNATI 008 01 240 11 SATL 025
T000 169S 0571E 085 R064 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 176S 0556E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 181S 0542E 105 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 186S 0527E 105 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 210 SE QD 190 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 193S 0511E 105 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 220 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 213S 0477E 080 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 240S 0444E 045 R034 130 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 270S 0414E 050 R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 230 SE QD 180 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 16.9S 57.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 57.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.6S 55.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.1S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.6S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.3S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.3S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.0S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 27.0S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 56.7E.
19FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 239
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 191800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z. //
1322021418 145S 793E 20
1322021500 146S 773E 20
1322021506 144S 755E 20
1322021512 143S 738E 25
1322021518 142S 720E 30
1322021600 141S 708E 30
1322021606 140S 701E 30
1322021612 140S 692E 30
1322021618 141S 684E 35
1322021700 141S 674E 45
1322021706 140S 658E 50
1322021706 140S 658E 50
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021800 137S 633E 55
1322021800 137S 633E 55
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021912 164S 581E 70
1322021912 164S 581E 70
1322021912 164S 581E 70
1322021918 169S 571E 85
1322021918 169S 571E 85
1322021918 169S 571E 85
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 16.9S 57.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 57.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.6S 55.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.1S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.6S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.3S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.3S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.0S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 27.0S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 56.7E.
19FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 239
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 191800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z. //
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 191848
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/5/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 19/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.9 S / 57.2 E
(SEIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 405 SO: 370 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 90 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/02/2022 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 510 SO: 405 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

24H: 20/02/2022 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 470 SO: 405 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75

36H: 21/02/2022 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 480 SO: 405 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SO: 270 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 150
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75

48H: 21/02/2022 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 500 SO: 370 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SO: 250 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75

60H: 22/02/2022 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 490 SO: 280 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SO: 175 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 75

72H: 22/02/2022 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 510 SO: 195 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SO: 120 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 120

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/02/2022 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 400 SO: 360 NO: 260

120H: 24/02/2022 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 535 SO: 380 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 335 SO: 240 NO: 215

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'EMNATI A
PROGRESSIVEMENT EVOLUE D'UN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE VERS UNE
CONFIGURATION EN OEIL AU COURS DES 2 DERNIERES HEURES. ALORS QUE LES
DONNEES MICRO-ONDES EN COURS D'APRES-MIDI POUVAIENT LAISSER ENTREVOIR
UNE AMORCE DE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL, L'AMELIORATION
NOTABLE SUR LA PASSE DE 1445UTC ET LE REGAIN D'INTENSITE DES DERNIERS
INSTANTS PLAIDE POUR UN AVORTEMENT DE CE REMPLACEMEMNT.
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT POURRAIT EN ETRE LA CAUSE.
L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN OEIL MOYENNEE SUR 6H PERMET D'OBTENIR UNE VALEUR
DE 4.5+ ET PLAIDE POUR DES VALEURS DE VENTS ESTIMES DE L'ORDRE 70KT.
BREF, PAS ENCORE D'INTENSIFICATION FRANCHE MAIS EMNATI EST DANS UNE
PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION REGULIERE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS: EMNATI CONTINUE SA
TRAJECTOIRE SUR UN CAP EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST
(VOIRE TEMPORAIREMENT SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES COURTES ECHEANCES DU
FAIT D'UNE LEGERE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST) SOUS
L'EFFET DU RENFORCEMENT DES GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU
SUD-EST ET AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME. UN CONSENSUS SEMBLE COMMENCER A SE
DESSINER DANS LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES SUIVIES PAR LE CMRS MEME SI
L'INCERTITUDE LAISSE UNE DISTANCE DE PASSAGE AUX MASCAREIGNES A
ENVIRON 320KM +/-100KM. PAR LA SUITE, UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE ARRIVE PAR
LE SUD-OUEST FAVORISANT LE MAINTIEN DE LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR, A ECHEANCE
DE MARDI EN COURS DE JOURNEE, ENTRE MANANJARY ET VATOMANDRY. EMNATI
DEVRAIT TRAVERSER LA GRANDE TERRE POUR RESSORTIR SUR LE CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE EN COURS D'APRES-MIDI DE MERCREDI POUR PRENDRE UNE
DIRECTION SUD-SUD-OUEST PLUS FRANCHE.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
FAVORABLES AVEC DES EAUX CHAUDES, DU CISAILLEMENT EN BAISSE ET UNE
TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. CEPENDANT LE DEMARRAGE D'UN CYCLE
DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL A LIMITE L'INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A
PRESENT, MAIS CELLE DEVRAIT POUVOIR SE METTRE EN PLACE D'ABORD
TIMIDEMENT PUIS PLUS FRANCHEMENT. IL FAUT LAISSER ENTRE 24H ET 36H A
EMNATI POUR QU'IL SE RENFORCE PLUS FRANCHEMENT ET ATTEIGNE LE SEUIL
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE APRES SON PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES DES
MASCAREIGNES. D'ICI SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR, UNE NOUVELLE
FLUCTUATION D'INTENSITE EST POSSIBLE DU FAIT D'UN NOUVEAU CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONEMENTALES
RESTANT BONNES MALGRE UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE ENCORE PRESENT.

EN TERME D'IMPACTS, LES CONDITIONS CONTINUENT DE SE DEGRADER SUR
MAURICE ET LA REUNION. LE SCENARIO LE PLUS PROBABLE DONNE DES
CONDITIONS DE COUP DE VENT (ASSOCIEES A DES RAFALES A 90-100 KM/H SUR
MER) SUR LES ILES. EN MARGE DU COEUR ACTIF DU SYSTEME, LES FORTES
PLUIES SE LIMITERAIENT AUX ZONES DE RELIEF. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE,
LA ZONE D'IMPACT SUR LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR, ATTENDU EN JOURNEE DE
MARDI, RESTE ENCORE ASSEZ INCERTAINE, MAIS LA ZONE LA PLUS PROBABLE A
L'HEURE ACTUELLE SEMBLANT TOUTEFOIS ETRE ENTRE VATOMANDRY ET
MANANJARY, MEME SI DES SCENARIOS ALTERNATIFS RESTENT POSSIBLES.

LES HABITANTS DES MASCAREIGNES ET DE LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR SONT
DONC INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 191848
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/19 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 57.2 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 405 SW: 370 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/20 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 510 SW: 405 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2022/02/20 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 470 SW: 405 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

36H: 2022/02/21 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 480 SW: 405 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

48H: 2022/02/21 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 500 SW: 370 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

60H: 2022/02/22 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 490 SW: 280 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 175 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75

72H: 2022/02/22 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 510 SW: 195 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 120 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 120

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/23 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 400 SW: 360 NW: 260

120H: 2022/02/24 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 535 SW: 380 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 215

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF EMNATI HAS
PROGRESSIVELY EVOLVED FROM A CDO PATTERN TO AN EYE PATTERN DURING THE
LAST 2 HOURS. WHILE THE MICROWAVE DATA IN THE AFTERNOON COULD SUGGEST
THE BEGINNING OF A REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYE WALL, THE NOTICEABLE
IMPROVEMENT ON THE 1445UTC PASS AND THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF THE
LAST MOMENTS PLEAD FOR AN ABORTION OF THIS REPLACEMENT. THE WEAKENING
OF THE SHEAR COULD BE THE CAUSE. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IN AVERAGE EYE
OVER 6H GIVES A VALUE OF 4.5+ AND PLEADS FOR ESTIMATED WIND VALUES OF
THE ORDER OF 70KT. IN SHORT, NO CLEAR INTENSIFICATION YET BUT EMNATI
IS IN A REGULAR INTENSIFICATION PHASE.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF RSMC TRACK: EMNATI CONTINUES ITS TRACK ON A
GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WEST HEADING (OR EVEN TEMPORARILY SOUTH-WEST
DURING SHORT PERIODS DUE TO A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH-WEST) UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTH-EAST AND NORTH-EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. A CONSENSUS SEEMS TO START TO EMERGE IN THE LAST GUIDANCE
FOLLOWED BY THE RSMC EVEN IF THE UNCERTAINTY LEAVES A DISTANCE OF
PASSAGE TO THE MASCARENE ISLANDS AT ABOUT 320KM +/-100KM. THEREAFTER,
A NEW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST FAVORING THE
MAINTENANCE OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK UNTIL ITS LANDING ON
MADAGASCAR, ON TUESDAY DURING THE DAY, BETWEEN MANANJARY AND
VATOMANDRY. EMNATI IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MAINLAND AND EXIT INTO
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE AFTERNOON OF WEDNESDAY TO TAKE A
STEEPER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
WITH WARM WATERS, DECREASING SHEAR AND A VERY GOOD ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER, THE START OF A REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYEWALL
HAS LIMITED THE INTENSIFICATION UNTIL NOW, BUT IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
SET UP FIRST TIMIDLY AND THEN MORE FRANKLY. IT IS NECESSARY TO LEAVE
BETWEEN 24H AND 36H TO EMNATI SO THAT IT STRENGTHENS MORE FRANKLY AND
REACHES THE THRESHOLD OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER ITS PASSAGE
NEAR THE MASCAREIGNES. FROM NOW UNTIL ITS LANDING ON MADAGASCAR, A
NEW FLUCTUATION OF INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF A NEW CYCLE OF
REPLACEMENT OF THE EYEWALL, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINING
GOOD IN SPITE OF A MODERATE SHEAR STILL PRESENT.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER
MAURITIUS AND REUNION. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO GIVES GALE
CONDITIONS (ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTS TO 90-100 KM/H ON SEA) ON THE
ISLANDS. AT THE MARGIN OF THE ACTIVE CORE OF THE SYSTEM, THE HEAVY
RAINS WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE RELIEF AREAS. IN THE LONGER TIME
SCALES, THE IMPACT AREA ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY, IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN, BUT THE MOST PROBABLE AREA AT THE
MOMENT SEEMS TO BE BETWEEN VATOMANDRY AND MANANJARY, EVEN IF
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND OF THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR ARE THUS INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 191800
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/02/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 19/02/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 57.2 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 230 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 160
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/20 AT 06 UTC:
17.5 S / 55.8 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 190 NM SE: 275 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 210 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 120 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 55 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/20 AT 18 UTC:
18.0 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 200 NM SE: 255 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 210 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 125 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 65 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 191500
WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 220219135034
2022021912 13S EMNATI 007 01 240 08 SATL 060
T000 164S 0581E 070 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 174S 0566E 075 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 179S 0551E 085 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 183S 0538E 090 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 189S 0522E 095 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 205S 0489E 090 R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 234S 0451E 045 R034 110 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 266S 0424E 050 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 16.4S 58.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 58.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.4S 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.9S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.3S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.9S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.5S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.4S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.6S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 57.7E.
19FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 227
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.
//
1322021418 145S 793E 20
1322021500 146S 773E 20
1322021506 144S 755E 20
1322021512 143S 738E 25
1322021518 142S 720E 30
1322021600 141S 708E 30
1322021606 140S 701E 30
1322021612 140S 692E 30
1322021618 141S 684E 35
1322021700 141S 674E 45
1322021706 140S 658E 50
1322021706 140S 658E 50
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021800 137S 633E 55
1322021800 137S 633E 55
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021812 146S 615E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021818 153S 606E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021900 155S 597E 65
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021906 160S 588E 70
1322021912 164S 581E 70
1322021912 164S 581E 70
1322021912 164S 581E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 16.4S 58.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 58.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.4S 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.9S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.3S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.9S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.5S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.4S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.6S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 57.7E.
19FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 227
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200300Z AND 201500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 191304
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/5/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 19/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.4 S / 58.0 E
(SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 405 SO: 370 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 90 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/02/2022 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 510 SO: 380 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SO: 195 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 20/02/2022 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 465 SO: 370 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75

36H: 21/02/2022 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 480 SO: 370 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75

48H: 21/02/2022 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 500 SO: 405 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 270 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

60H: 22/02/2022 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 535 SO: 305 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 305 SO: 205 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75

72H: 22/02/2022 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 455 SO: 175 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SO: 110 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/02/2022 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 360 NO: 250

120H: 24/02/2022 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 490 SO: 345 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SO: 195 NO: 205

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES SIX HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'EMNATI
A PROGRESSIVEMENT EN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE AVEC LA DISPARAITION
DE L'OEIL TEMPORAIREMENT APPARU. LES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES
ENTRE 4.5 ET 5.0 DONNENT UNE INTENSITE FINALE DE 70KT EN ACCORD AVEC
LES GUIDANCES OBJECTIVES. EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES MICRO-ONDES, LA
POSITION DU CENTRE EST RELATIVEMENT INCERTAINE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS: EMNATI CONTINUE,
POUR LES PROCHAINES 24H, SA TRAJECTOIRE SUR UN CAP EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST, SOUS L'EFFET DU RENFORCEMENT DES GEOPOTENTIELS
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-EST ET AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME ET LE
PASSAGE D'UNE LEGERE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST. AU-DELA,
UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE ARRIVE PAR LE SUD-OUEST EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE
DIMANCHE PUIS GLISSE D'ICI MARDI AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. CETTE
CONFIGURATION DEVRAIT ETRE FAVORABLE A UN REDRESSEMENT DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, PUIS, AU-DELA DE MARDI, A UNE
NOUVELLE INCURVATION VERS LE SUD-OUEST. UN CONSENSUS SEMBLE COMMENCER
A SE DESSINER DANS LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES MEME SI LE
MODELE GFS CONTINUE DE MANIERE ISOLE DE PROPOSER UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS
SUD. L'INCERTITUDE RESTE NEANMOINS IMPORTANTE A COURTE ECHEANCE SUR
LES DISTANCES DE PASSAGE AUX MASCAREIGNES (ENVIRON 320KM +/-100KM) ET
A PLUS LONG TERME SUR LA ZONE D'ATTERRISAGE A MADAGASCAR (ENTRE
TAMATAVE ET VATOMANDRY)

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
FAVORABLES AVEC DES EAUX CHAUDES, DU CISAILLEMENT EN BAISSE ET UNE
TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. CEPENDANT LE DEMARRAGE D'UN CYCLE
DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL SEMBLE PROBABLE DANS LES PROCHAINES
36H AU VU DE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE, DES SIMULATIONS AROME AINSI
QUE DE LA SIMILARITE AVEC BATSIRAI. LA PRESENTE PREVISION TIENT
COMPTE D'UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS MODEREE A COURTE ECHEANCE EN LIEN
AVEC UN EVENTUEL ERC AVANT UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS FRANCHE. LE STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE SERA PROBABLEMENT ATTEINT D'ICI
L'ATTERISSAGE.

EN TERME D'IMPACTS, LES CONDITIONS SE DEGRADENT SUR MAURICE ET LA
REUNION CE SAMEDI. LE SCENARIO LE PLUS PROBABLE DONNE DES CONDITIONS
DE COUP DE VENT (ASSOCIEES A DES RAFALES A 90-100 KM/H SUR MER) SUR
LES ILES. EN MARGE DU COEUR ACTIF DU SYSTEME, LES FORTES PLUIES SE
LIMITERAIENT AUX ZONES DE RELIEF. LE SCENARIO DU PIRE, TYPE GFS,
EXPOSERAIT LES ILES AUX VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE ET DES PLUIES
SENSIBLEMENT PLUS ABONDANTES SUR LES ZONES DE RELIEF.

A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LA ZONE D'IMPACT SUR LA COTE EST DE
MADAGASCAR, ATTENDU EN JOURNEE DE MARDI, RESTE ASSEZ INCERTAINE,
COMPTE TENU DE LE TENDANCE RECENTE DES GUIDANCES. LA ZONE PLUS
PROBABLE A L'HEURE ACTUELLE SEMBLANT TOUTEFOIS ETRE ENTRE TAMATAVE ET
MANANJARY, MEME SI DES SCENARIOS ALTERNATIFS RESTENT POSSIBLES.

LES HABITANTS DES MASCAREIGNES ET DE LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR SONT
DONC INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 191304
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 58.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 405 SW: 370 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/20 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 510 SW: 380 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2022/02/20 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 465 SW: 370 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75

36H: 2022/02/21 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 480 SW: 370 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

48H: 2022/02/21 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 500 SW: 405 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

60H: 2022/02/22 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 535 SW: 305 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 305 SW: 205 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

72H: 2022/02/22 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 455 SW: 175 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 110 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/23 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 360 NW: 250

120H: 2022/02/24 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 490 SW: 345 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SW: 195 NW: 205

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5+

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, EMNATI CLOUD PATTERN PROGRESSIVELY EVOLVED
TOWARD AN EMBEDDED CENTER WITH THE DISAPEARING OF THE TEMPORARY EYE.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS BETWEEN 4.5 AND 5.0 LEAD TO A FINAL
INTENSITY OF 70KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. IN TH
ABSENCE OF MICROWAVE DATA, THE EXACT LOCATION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN;

NO CHANGE IN THE RSMC TRACK: EMNATI CONTINUES, FOR THE NEXT 24H, ON A
GENERAL SOUTH-WESTWARD DIRECTION, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE PASSAGE OF A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. BEYOND THAT, A NEW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDE BY TUESDAY TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW A GRADUAL BEND
TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, THEN, BEYOND TUESDAY, TO A NEW TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. A CONSENSUS SEEMS TO START EMERGING IN THE
LATEST GUIDANCE EVENE IF THE GFS MODEL REMAINS ISOLATED IN A SOUTHERN
TRACK. UNCERTAINTIES REMAINS IMPORTANT AT SHORT RANGE ON THE CLOSEST
DISTANCE TO THE MASCARENES ISLANDS (AROUND 320KM +/-100KM) AN LATER
WITH THE LIKELY LANDING ON THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR (BETWEEN
TOAMASINA AND VATOMANDRY).

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOARBLE,
WITH WARM WATERS, A DECREASING SHEAR AND A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE.
HOWEVER, THE ONSET OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS LIKELY IN THE
NEXT 36H, GIVEN THE CLOUD PATTERN, AROME SIMULATIONS AND THE
SIMILARITIES WITH BATSIRAI. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIMITS THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE AT SHORT RANGE BECAUSE OF THIS POTENTIAL ERC
BEFORE A STEEPER DEEPENING. INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS LIKELY
TO BE REACHED BEFORE LANDING.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING OVER MAURITIUS AND
REUNION TODAY. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO GIVES GALE CONDITIONS
(ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTS TO 90-100 KM/H AT SEA LEVEL) ON THE ISLANDS.
AT THE MARGIN OF THE INNER CORE OF THE SYSTEM, HEAVY RAINS WOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE RELIEF AREAS. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO, GFS TYPE, WOULD
EXPOSE THE ISLANDS TO STORM FORCE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL OVER THE RELIEF AREAS.

IN THE LONGER TERM, THE LANDFALL OVER THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR,
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN, GIVEN THE RECENT TREND
IN GUIDANCE. THE MOST PROBABLE AREA AT THE MOMENT SEEMS TO BE BETWEEN
TOAMASINA AND MANANJARY, EVEN IF ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE.

THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND OF THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR ARE THUS INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 191223
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/02/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 19/02/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 58.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 160
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/20 AT 00 UTC:
17.2 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 190 NM SE: 275 NM SW: 205 NM NW: 200 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 115 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/20 AT 12 UTC:
17.8 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 250 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 210 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 120 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 60 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 190653
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/5/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 19/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.9 S / 58.9 E
(QUINZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 973 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 405 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 90 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/02/2022 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 530 SO: 400 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 295 SO: 220 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 120 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

24H: 20/02/2022 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 490 SO: 370 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 175 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 20/02/2022 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 470 SO: 425 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

48H: 21/02/2022 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 480 SO: 390 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SO: 250 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

60H: 21/02/2022 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 500 SO: 360 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75

72H: 22/02/2022 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 465 SO: 215 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 130 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/02/2022 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

120H: 24/02/2022 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 415 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 185 NO: 175

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES SIX HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE
S'EST MAINTENUE ET MEME AMELIOREE. SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES VISIBLES,
UN OEIL EST EN TRAIN D'APPARAITRE. LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES DE LA FIN
DE NUIT NE MONTRE PAS POUR L'INSTANT D'AMELIORATION SENSIBLE DE LA
CIRCULATION INTERNE. LE RAYON DE VENT MAXIMUM TEND A S'ELARGIR. LES
DONNES SMOS ET SENTINEL DE FIN DE NUIT, SUGGERAIENT DES INTENSITES
MAXIMALES DE L'ORDRE DE 55 A 60KT. AU VU DE LA TENDANCE RECENTE,
L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 65KT. POUR INFO, LA STATION DE SAINT
BRANDON A MESURE A 03Z, DES VENTS D'EST DE 54KT AINSI QU'UNE PRESSION
DE 989.2 HPA

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS: EMNATI CONTINUE,
POUR LES PROCHAINES 24 A 36H, SA TRAJECTOIRE SUR UN CAP EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST, SOUS L'EFFET DU RENFORCEMENT DES GEOPOTENTIELS
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-EST ET AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME ET LE
PASSAGE D'UNE LEGERE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST. AU-DELA,
UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE ARRIVE PAR LE SUD-OUEST EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE
DIMANCHE PUIS GLISSE D'ICI MARDI AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. CETTE
CONFIGURATION DEVRAIT ETRE FAVORABLE A UN REDRESSEMENT DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, PUIS, AU-DELA DE MARDI, A UNE
NOUVELLE INCURVATION VERS LE SUD-OUEST. LES GUIDANCES CONTINUENT DE
PRESENTER DES DIFFERENCES SENSIBLES DANS L'APPRECIATION DE CE
REDRESSEMENT VERS L'OUEST: GFS CONTINUE D'ETRE PEU SENSIBLE ET A
PRIVILEGIER UNE TENDANCE SUD-OUEST ALORS QUE IFS 18Z REDRESSE
SENSIBLEMENT ET PLUS DURABLEMENT VERS L'OUEST. LA CONTRIBUTION DU
FLUX DIRECTEUR A 400 HPA MAIS AUSSI DES DIFFERENCES D'APPRECIATION DE
L'AMPLITUDE DES CENTRES D'ACTIONS PRESENTS EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
EXPLIQUENT EN PARTIE CES DIFFERENCES DE SCENARIO. LE SCENARIO DU CMRS
RESTE SUR UN COMPROMIS (PROCHE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE PAR AROME)
MAIS CETTE NUANCE INDIQUE UNE INCERTITUDE UN PEU PLUS GRANDE SUR LES
IMPACTS POUR LES MASCAREIGNES (SCENARIO DU PIRE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE
GFS) ET, PLUS LONG TERME, SUR LA LOCALISATION DE L'ATTERRISSAGE SUR
LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT ENCORE
UN PEU CISAILLEES CE QUI EXPLIQUE LE PLATEAU ACTUEL EN TERME
D'INTENSIFICATION. IL DEVRAIT AUJOURD'HUI GAGNER DES EAUX PLUS
CHAUDES ET SE RAPPROCHER GRADUELLEMENT DE L'AXE DE LA DORSALE
DEFINISSANT UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT ET UNE TRES BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. CEPENDANT LE DEMARRAGE D'UN CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL SEMBLE PROBABLE DANS LES PROCHAINES
36H. PLUSIEURS MODELES NOTAMMENT AROME ET HWRF LE SUGGERE, DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT TRES SIMILAIRE A BATSIRAI. LA PRESENTE PREVISION TIENT
COMPTE D'UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS MODEREE A COURTE ECHEANCE EN LIEN
AVEC UN EVENTUEL ERC AVANT UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS FRANCHE. LE STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE SERA PROBABLEMENT ATTEINT.

EN TERME D'IMPACTS, LES CONDITIONS SE DEGRADENT SUR MAURICE ET LA
REUNION CE SAMEDI. LE SCENARIO LE PLUS PROBABLE DONNE DES CONDITIONS
DE COUP DE VENT (ASSOCIEES A DES RAFALES A 90-100 KM/H SUR MER) SUR
LES ILES. EN MARGE DU COEUR ACTIF DU SYSTEME, LES FORTES PLUIES SE
LIMITERAIENT AUX ZONES DE RELIEF. LE SCENARIO DU PIRE, TYPE GFS,
EXPOSERAIT LES ILES AUX VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE ET DES PLUIES
SENSIBLEMENT PLUS ABONDANTES SUR LES ZONES DE RELIEF.

A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LA ZONE D'IMPACT SUR LA COTE EST DE
MADAGASCAR, ATTENDU EN JOURNEE DE MARDI, RESTE ASSEZ INCERTAINE,
COMPTE TENU DE LE TENDANCE RECENTE DES GUIDANCES. LA ZONE PLUS
PROBABLE A L'HEURE ACTUELLE SEMBLANT TOUTEFOIS ETRE ENTRE TAMATAVE ET
MANANJARY, MEME SI DES SCENARIOS ALTERNATIFS RESTENT POSSIBLES.

LES HABITANTS DES MASCAREIGNES ET DE LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR SONT
DONC INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 190653
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/19 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 58.9 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 405 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/19 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 530 SW: 400 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2022/02/20 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 490 SW: 370 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 175 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2022/02/20 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 470 SW: 425 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

48H: 2022/02/21 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 480 SW: 390 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

60H: 2022/02/21 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 500 SW: 360 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

72H: 2022/02/22 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 465 SW: 215 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 130 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/23 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2022/02/24 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 415 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 175

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CURVED BAND PATTERN MAITAINED AND EVEN
IMPROVED. AN EYE IMPROVED ON THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES. LATE NIGHT
MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED NO SIGN OF DEVELOPMENT BUT AN INCREASE FOR THE
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS. SMOS AND SENTINEL LATE NIGHT DATA SHOW MAX
WINDS AROUND 55 TO 60KT. GIVEN THE RECENT TREND, INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 65KT. AT 03Z, THE ST-BRANDON STATION GIVES WINDS FROM
EAST AT 54 KT WITH A PRESSURE AT 989.2 HPA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF RSMC TRACK: EMNATI CONTINUES, FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 36H, ON A GENERAL SOUTH-WEST DIRECTION, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE PASSAGE OF A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. BEYOND THAT, A NEW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDE BY TUESDAY TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW A GRADUAL BEND
TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, THEN, BEYOND TUESDAY, TO A NEW TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE APPRECIATION OF THIS WESTWARD BEND:
GFS CONTINUES TO BE INSENSITIVE AND TO FAVOR A SOUTH-WESTERN TREND,
WHILE IFS MOVES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SIGNIFICANTLY AND MORE LONGER TO
THE WEST. THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE 400 HPA DIRECTOR FLOW BUT ALSO
DIFFERENCES IN THE APPRECIATION OF THE AMPLITUDE OF THE ACTION
CENTERS PRESENT IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE EXPLAIN IN PART THESE
DIFFERENCES IN SCENARIO. THE RSMC SCENARIO REMAINS ON A COMPROMISE
(CLOSE TO THE TRACK PREDICTED BY AROME) BUT THIS SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPACTS FOR THE
MASCAREIGNES (WORST CASE SCENARIO ON THE GFS TRACK) AND, IN THE
LONGER TERM, ON THE LOCATION OF THE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL A BIT
SHEARED WHICH EXPLAINS THE CURRENT PLATEAU IN TERMS OF
INTENSIFICATION. BUT ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, IT SHOULD GAIN WARMER
WATERS AND GRADUALLY APPROACH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS DEFINING A
WEAKENING OF THE SHEAR AND A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE
ONSET OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT 36H, IN A
SIMILAR ENVIRONNEMENT AS BATSIRAI AND GIVEN THE HWRF AND AROME
FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIMITS THE INTENSIFICATION RATE AT
SHORT RANGE BEACUASE OF THAT BEFORE A STEEPER DEEPENING. INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS LIKELY TO BE REACHED.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING OVER MAURITIUS AND
REUNION TODAY. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO GIVES GALE CONDITIONS
(ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTS TO 90-100 KM/H AT SEA LEVEL) ON THE ISLANDS.
AT THE MARGIN OF THE INNER CORE OF THE SYSTEM, HEAVY RAINS WOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE RELIEF AREAS. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO, GFS TYPE, WOULD
EXPOSE THE ISLANDS TO STORM FORCE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL OVER THE RELIEF AREAS.

IN THE LONGER TERM, THE LANDFALL OVER THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR,
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN, GIVEN THE RECENT TREND
IN GUIDANCE. THE MOST PROBABLE AREA AT THE MOMENT SEEMS TO BE BETWEEN
TAMATAVE AND MANANJARY, EVEN IF ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE.

THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND OF THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR ARE THUS INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 190628
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/02/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 19/02/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI) 973 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 58.9 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/19 AT 18 UTC:
16.8 S / 57.2 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 190 NM SE: 285 NM SW: 215 NM NW: 170 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 105 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/20 AT 06 UTC:
17.6 S / 55.8 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 265 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 195 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 120 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 59.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 59.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.9S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.6S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.1S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.4S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.2S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.2S 46.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.9S 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 59.1E.
19FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND
200300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 190300
WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 220219014912
2022021900 13S EMNATI 006 01 235 11 SATL 030
T000 160S 0595E 070 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 169S 0580E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 176S 0565E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 181S 0553E 090 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 184S 0539E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 192S 0506E 085 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 212S 0466E 060 R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 239S 0431E 030
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 59.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 59.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.9S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.6S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.1S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.4S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.2S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.2S 46.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.9S 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 59.1E.
19FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND
200300Z.//
1322021418 145S 793E 20
1322021500 146S 773E 20
1322021506 144S 755E 20
1322021512 143S 738E 25
1322021518 142S 720E 30
1322021600 141S 708E 30
1322021606 140S 701E 30
1322021612 140S 692E 30
1322021618 141S 684E 35
1322021700 141S 674E 45
1322021706 140S 658E 50
1322021706 140S 658E 50
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021800 137S 633E 55
1322021800 137S 633E 55
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021806 139S 623E 65
1322021812 147S 615E 70
1322021812 147S 615E 70
1322021812 147S 615E 70
1322021818 154S 604E 70
1322021818 154S 604E 70
1322021818 154S 604E 70
1322021900 160S 595E 70
1322021900 160S 595E 70
1322021900 160S 595E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 190041
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/5/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 19/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.7 S / 59.8 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 973 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 425 SO: 370 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1002 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/02/2022 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 455 SO: 425 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SO: 230 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 20/02/2022 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 510 SO: 415 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

36H: 20/02/2022 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 465 SO: 405 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65

48H: 21/02/2022 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 470 SO: 400 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SO: 250 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75

60H: 21/02/2022 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 520 SO: 390 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SO: 240 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65

72H: 22/02/2022 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 510 SO: 305 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SO: 195 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/02/2022 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 400 SO: 0 NO: 215

120H: 24/02/2022 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 405 SO: 345 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SO: 150 NO: 165

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=4.5-

DURANT LA NUIT, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE EMNATI A EVOLUE D'UN
CENTRE NOYE SOUS LA MASSE VERS UNE CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE.
PAS D'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDE DISPONIBLE POUR APPRECIER L'EVOLUTION DE LA
STRUCTURE INTERNE. LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES SONT
STATIONNAIRE ET L'INTENSITE INITIALE EST DONC LAISSEE A 65 KT.

LES DONNEES PARTIELLES ASCAT SUPERPOSEES A L'IMAGERIE AMSUB DE METOPB
DE 1725Z ONT PERMIS DE RECALER PLUS AU NORD-OUEST LA POSITION DE 18Z
(NOUVELLE ESTIMATION: 15.2S-60.5E).

A 00Z, LA STATION DE ST-BRANDON DONNE DES VENTS D'EST-SUD-EST A 45 KT
(RAFALES 118 KM/H) AVEC UNE PRESSION A 989.3 HPA, SE SITUANT EN
BORDURE SUD DE L'EXTENSION DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE (SOURCE: METEO
MAURICE).

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS: EMNATI CONTINUE,
POUR LES PROCHAINES 24 A 36H, SA TRAJECTOIRE SUR UN CAP EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST, SOUS L'EFFET DU RENFORCEMENT DES GEOPOTENTIELS
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-EST ET AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME ET LE
PASSAGE D'UNE LEGERE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST. AU-DELA,
UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE ARRIVE PAR LE SUD-OUEST EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE
DIMANCHE PUIS GLISSE D'ICI MARDI AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. CETTE
CONFIGURATION DEVRAIT ETRE FAVORABLE A UN REDRESSEMENT DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, PUIS, AU-DELA DE MARDI, A UNE
NOUVELLE INCURVATION VERS LE SUD-OUEST. LES GUIDANCES CONTINUENT DE
PRESENTER DES DIFFERENCES SENSIBLES DANS L'APPRECIATION DE CE
REDRESSEMENT VERS L'OUEST: GFS CONTINUE D'ETRE PEU SENSIBLE ET A
PRIVILEGIER UNE TENDANCE SUD-OUEST ALORS QUE IFS REDRESSE
SENSIBLEMENT ET PLUS DURABLEMENT VERS L'OUEST. LA CONTRIBUTION DU
FLUX DIRECTEUR A 400 HPA MAIS AUSSI DES DIFFERENCES D'APPRECIATION DE
L'AMMPLITUDE DES CENTRES D'ACTIONS PRESENTS EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
EXPLIQUENT EN PARTIE CES DIFFERENCES DE SCENARIO. L'ENSEMBLE EPS+GEFS
REFLETE CETTE DISPERSION. LE SCENARIO DU CMRS RESTE SUR UN COMPROMIS
(PROCHE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE PAR AROME) MAIS CETTE NUANCE INDIQUE
UNE INCERTITUDE UN PEU PLUS GRANDE SUR LES IMPACTS POUR LES
MASCAREIGNES (SCENARIO DU PIRE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE GFS) ET, PLUS LONG
TERME, SUR LA LOCALISATION DE L'ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA COTE EST DE
MADAGASCAR.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT ENCORE
UN PEU CISAILLEES CE QUI EXPLIQUE LE PLATEAU ACTUEL EN TERME
D'INTENSIFICATION. DE FACON SECONDAIRE, EMNATI CIRCULE SUR QUASIMENT
LE MEME TRACE QUE DUMAKO USRVENU IL Y A SEULEMENT QUELQUES JOURS ET
PEUT TEMPORAIREMENT BENEFICIER D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE MOINDRE. MAIS
SUR SA TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE, IL DEVRAIT AUJOURD'HUI GAGNER DES EAUX
PLUS CHAUDES ET SE RAPPROCHER GRADUELLEMENT DE L'AXE DE LA DORSALE
DEFINISSANT UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT ET UNE TRES BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS FRANCHE RESTE
ENVISAGEE A L'APPROCHE DES MASCAREIGNES, POTENTIELLEMENT JUSQU'AU
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AU MOMENT DU PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES
DES ILES. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DU CMRS PREND EN COMPTE LA SURVENUE
EVENTUELLE D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL DONT LA
CHRONOLOGIE PRECISE RESTE DELICATE A PREVOIR. CELUI-CI POURRAIT
CONDUIRE A DES INTENSITES DIFFERENTES DE CELLES PREVUES, NOTAMMENT
ENTRE LE NORD DES MASCAREIGNES ET LA COTE MALGACHE.

EN TERME D'IMPACTS, LES CONDITIONS VONT SE DEGRADER SUR MAURICE
SAMEDI MATIN PUIS LA REUNION SAMEDI SOIR. LE SCENARIO LE PLUS
PROBABLE DONNE DES CONDITIONS DE COUP DE VENT (ASSOCIEES A DES
RAFALES A 90-100 KM/H SUR MER) SUR LES ILES. EN MARGE DU COEUR ACTIF
DU SYSTEME, LES FORTES PLUIES SE LIMITERAIENT AUX ZONES DE RELIEF. LE
SCENARIO DU PIRE, TYPE GFS, EXPOSERAIT LES ILES AUX VENTS DE FORCE
TEMPETE ET DES PLUIES SENSIBLEMENT PLUS ABONDANTES SUR LES ZONES DE
RELIEF.

A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LA ZONE D'IMPACT SUR LA COTE EST DE
MADAGASCAR, ATTENDU EN JOURNEE DE MARDI, RESTE ASSEZ INCERTAINE,
COMPTE TENU DE LE TENDANCE RECENTE DES GUIDANCES. LA ZONE PLUS
PROBABLE A L'HEURE ACTUELLE SEMBLANT TOUTEFOIS ETRE ENTRE TAMATAVE ET
MANANJARY, MEME SI DES SCENARIOS ALTERNATIFS RESTENT POSSIBLES.

LES HABITANTS DES MASCAREIGNES ET DE LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR SONT
DONC INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 190041
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 59.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 425 SW: 370 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/19 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 455 SW: 425 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2022/02/20 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 510 SW: 415 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

36H: 2022/02/20 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 465 SW: 405 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65

48H: 2022/02/21 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 470 SW: 400 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

60H: 2022/02/21 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 520 SW: 390 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2022/02/22 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 510 SW: 305 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/23 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 400 SW: 0 NW: 215

120H: 2022/02/24 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 405 SW: 345 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 165

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.5-

DURING THE NIGHT, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF EMNATI HAS EVOLVED FROM AN
EMBEDDED CENTERTO A CURVED BAND CONFIGURATION. NO MICROWAVE IMAGERY
AVAILABLE TO ASSESS THE EVOLUTION OF THE INNER CORE. THE SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE STATIONARY AND SO IS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY THAT IS THEREFORE LEFT AT 65 KT.

THE PARTIAL ASCAT DATA SUPERIMPOSED ON THE METOPB AMSUB IMAGERY OF
1725Z ALLOWED TO SHIFT THE POSITION OF 18Z FURTHER NORTHWEST (NEW
ESTIMATE: 15.2S-60.5E).

AT 00Z, THE ST-BRANDON STATION GIVES WINDS FROM EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 45
KT (GUSTS 118 KM/H) WITH A PRESSURE AT 989.3 HPA, BEING AT THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STORM FORCE WINDS RADII (SOURCE: MAURITIUS
WEATHER SERVICES)

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF RSMC TRACK: EMNATI CONTINUES, FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 36H, ON A GENERAL SOUTH-WEST DIRECTION, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE PASSAGE OF A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. BEYOND THAT, A NEW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDE BY TUESDAY TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW A GRADUAL BEND
TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, THEN, BEYOND TUESDAY, TO A NEW TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE APPRECIATION OF THIS WESTWARD BEND:
GFS CONTINUES TO BE INSENSITIVE AND TO FAVOR A SOUTH-WESTERN TREND,
WHILE IFS MOVES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SIGNIFICANTLY AND MORE LONGER TO
THE WEST. THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE 400 HPA DIRECTOR FLOW BUT ALSO
DIFFERENCES IN THE APPRECIATION OF THE AMPLITUDE OF THE ACTION
CENTERS PRESENT IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE EXPLAIN IN PART THESE
DIFFERENCES IN SCENARIO. THE EPS+GEFS ENSEMBLE TRACKS REFLECTS THIS
DISPERSION. THE RSMC SCENARIO REMAINS ON A COMPROMISE (CLOSE TO THE
TRACK PREDICTED BY AROME) BUT THIS SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPACTS FOR THE MASCAREIGNES (WORST
CASE SCENARIO ON THE GFS TRACK) AND, IN THE LONGER TERM, ON THE
LOCATION OF THE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL A BIT
SHEARED WHICH EXPLAINS THE CURRENT PLATEAU IN TERMS OF
INTENSIFICATION. SECONDLY, EMNATI IS CIRCULATING ON ALMOST THE SAME
TRACK AS DUMAKO WHICH ARRIVED ONLY A FEW DAYS AGO AND CAN TEMPORARILY
BENEFIT FROM A LOWER OCEANIC POTENTIAL. BUT ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, IT
SHOULD GAIN WARMER WATERS AND GRADUALLY APPROACH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
DEFINING A WEAKENING OF THE SHEAR AND A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. AN INTENSIFICATION TREND REMAINS EXPECTED AT THE APPROACH
OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS, POTENTIALLY UP TO THE STAGE OF INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THE TIME OF THE CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE ISLANDS.
THE PRESENT RSMC FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE
OF A REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYEWALL, THE PRECISE CHRONOLOGY OF
WHICH REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. THIS COULD LEAD TO INTENSITIES
DIFFERENT FROM THOSE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
MASCAREIGNES AND THE MALAGASY COAST.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER MAURITIUS ON
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN LA REUNION ON SATURDAY EVENING. THE MOST
PROBABLE SCENARIO GIVES GALE CONDITIONS (ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTS TO
90-100 KM/H AT SEA LEVEL) ON THE ISLANDS. AT THE MARGIN OF THE INNER
CORE OF THE SYSTEM, HEAVY RAINS WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE RELIEF AREAS.
THE WORST CASE SCENARIO, GFS TYPE, WOULD EXPOSE THE ISLANDS TO STORM
FORCE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER THE RELIEF AREAS.

IN THE LONGER TERM, THE LANDFALL OVER THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR,
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN, GIVEN THE RECENT TREND
IN GUIDANCE. THE MOST PROBABLE AREA AT THE MOMENT SEEMS TO BE BETWEEN
TAMATAVE AND MANANJARY, EVEN IF ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE.

THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND OF THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR ARE THUS INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 190032
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/02/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 19/02/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI) 973 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 59.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 15 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/19 AT 12 UTC:
16.7 S / 58.1 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 NM SE: 245 NM SW: 230 NM NW: 160 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/20 AT 00 UTC:
17.3 S / 56.7 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 200 NM SE: 275 NM SW: 225 NM NW: 180 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 105 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 181856
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/5/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 18/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.4 S / 60.9 E
(QUINZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 425 SO: 370 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1002 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/02/2022 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 470 SO: 405 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 195 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 19/02/2022 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 510 SO: 390 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SO: 185 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 20/02/2022 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SO: 350 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SO: 165 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 20/02/2022 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 480 SO: 370 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 75

60H: 21/02/2022 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 510 SO: 415 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SO: 110 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65

72H: 21/02/2022 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 510 SO: 370 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/02/2022 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 470 SO: 140 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 85 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SO: 45 NO: 45

120H: 23/02/2022 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 315 SO: 400 NO: 230

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES,EMNATI A PRESENTE UNE CONFIGURATION A
CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE ASSOCIE A DES SOMMETS TRES FROIDS PRES DU
CENTRE. GLOBALEMENT LA STRUCTURE NUAGEUSE EST EN LEGERE DEGRADATION
PAR RAPPORT A CE QU'ELLE ETAIT QUELQUES HEURES PLUS TOT. L'IMAGERIE
MICRO-ONDE (SSMIS VERS 12Z ET 15Z PUIS AMSUB METOP VERS 1730Z) MONTRE
QUE LA STRUCTURE D'OEIL EN BANDE CONSTITUE VERS 12Z S'EST ERRODE
RECEMMENT SOUS LE PROBABLE EFFET ENCORE SENSIBLE DU CISAILLEMENT DE
SECTEUR EST. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST INCHANGEE EN ACCORD AVEC
LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES DE DVORAK ET EN COMPROMIS ENTRE LE SATCON
ET SMAP/SMOS A 55-60 KT (VENTS 10-MIN) ET L'ADT/AIDT A ENVIRON 70 KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, EMNATI CONTINUE SA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET DU RENFORCEMENT DES
GEOPOTENTIELS AU SUD-EST ET AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME. LE MOUVEMENT
GENERAL RESTERA NEANMOINS PILOTE EN PREMIER LIEU PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI RESTE BIEN EN PLACE. CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE PAR LE CMRS, BASEE SUR UN SCENARIO MEDIAN,
FAVORISE AINSI UN PASSAGE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE SAINT-BRANDON PUIS
DANS LE SECTEUR NORD DES MASCAREIGNES. A NOTER QUE LES DEUX MODELES
DE REFERENCE PRESENTENT DES SCENARIOS SENSIBLEMENT DIFFERENTS DEPUIS
PLUSIEURS RUNS: PLUS SUD-OUEST POUR GFS AVEC UN FLUX DIRECTEUR
PROBABLEMENT PLUS INFLUENCE PAR LA 400 HPA ALORS QUE IFS, AVEC UN
SYSTEME MOINS INTENSE, A UNE TRAJECTOIRE SENSIBLEMENT PLUS AU NORD.
LE SCENARIO DU CMRS RESTE SUR UN COMPROMIS (PROCHE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE
PREVUE PAR AROME) MAIS CETTE NUANCE INDIQUE UNE INCERTITUDE UN PEU
PLUS GRANDE SUR LES IMPACTS POUR LES MASCAREIGNES (SCANRIO DU PIRE
SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE GFS).

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
ENCORE UN PEU CISAILLEES FAVORISANT UN DEVELOPPEMENT LENT. PUIS A
PARTIR DE SAMEDI, UN BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, LE RAPPROCHEMENT
GRADUEL DU SYSTEME DE L'AXE DE LA DORSALE DEFINISSANT UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT ET UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE, DEVRAIENT PERMETTRE UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS FRANCHE A
L'APPROCHE DES MASCAREIGNES, POTENTIELLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AU MOMENT DU PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES DES ILES.
LA PRESENTE PREVISION DU CMRS PREND EN COMPTE LA SURVENUE EVENTUELLE
D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL DONT LA CHRONOLOGIE
PRECISE RESTE DELICATE A PREVOIR. CELUI-CI POURRAIT CONDUIRE A DES
INTENSITES DIFFERENTES DE CELLES PREVUES, NOTAMMENT ENTRE LE NORD DES
MASCAREIGNES ET LA COTE MALGACHE.

EN TERME D'IMPACTS, LES CONDITIONS VONT SE DEGRADER SUR MAURICE
SAMEDI MATIN PUIS LA REUNION SAMEDI SOIR AVEC DE FORTES PLUIES ET DES
VENTS FORTS, LAISSANT DES RAFALES APPROCHANT LES 110 KM/H SUR LE
LITTORAL ET LES 130KM/H SUR LES HAUTEURS, NOTAMMENT DE LA REUNION.

PAR AILLEURS, LA ZONE D'IMPACT SUR LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR A PARTIR
DE MARDI SE FOCALISE ENTRE TAMATAVE ET MANANJARA, MEME SI DES
SCENARIOS ALTERNATIFS (NOTAMMENT PLUS AU SUD) RESTENT POSSIBLES.
LES HABITANTS DES MASCAREIGNES ET DE LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR SONT
DONC INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 181856
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 60.9 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 425 SW: 370 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/19 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 470 SW: 405 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2022/02/19 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 510 SW: 390 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2022/02/20 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SW: 350 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2022/02/20 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 480 SW: 370 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75

60H: 2022/02/21 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 510 SW: 415 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65

72H: 2022/02/21 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 510 SW: 370 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/22 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 470 SW: 140 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 85 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 45

120H: 2022/02/23 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 315 SW: 400 NW: 230

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, EMNATI HAS PRESENTED AN EMBEDDED CENTER
CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER. OVERALL
THE CLOUD STRUCTURE IS SLIGHTLY DEGRADED COMPARED TO WHAT IT WAS A
FEW HOURS EARLIER. MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSMIS AROUND 12Z AND 15Z THEN
AMSUB METOP AROUND 1730Z) SHOWS THAT THE BANDED EYE STRUCTURE FORMED
AROUND 12Z HAS ERODED RECENTLY UNDER THE LIKELY STILL SIGNIFICANT
EFFECT OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED IN
AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AND IN COMPROMISE
BETWEEN SATCON AND SMAP/SMOS AT 55-60 KT (10-MIN WINDS) AND ADT/AIDT
AT ABOUT 70 KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK, EMNATI CONTINUES ITS MOTION TOWARDS
THE SOUTH-WEST UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTH-EAST AND NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
GENERAL MOVEMENT WILL NEVERTHELESS REMAIN DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE WHICH REMAINS WELL IN PLACE. THIS TRACK
PREDICTED BY THE RSMC, BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO, FAVORS A PASSAGE
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SAINT-BRANDON THEN IN THE NORTHERN
SECTOR OF THE MASCAREIGNES. NOTE THAT THE TWO REFERENCE MODELS HAVE
BEEN PRESENTING SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR SEVERAL RUNS:
MORE SOUTH-WESTERLY FOR GFS WITH A STEERING FLOW PROBABLY MORE
INFLUENCED BY THE 400 HPA WHILE IFS, WITH A LESS INTENSE SYSTEM, HAS
A SIGNIFICANTLY MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. THE RSMC SCENARIO REMAINS ON A
COMPROMISE (CLOSE TO THE TRACK PREDICTED BY AROME) BUT THIS NUANCE
INDICATES A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPACTS FOR THE
MASCAREIGNES (WORST CASE SCANRIO ON THE GFS TRAJECTORY).

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL A
LITTLE BIT SHEARED FAVORING A SLOW DEVELOPMENT. THEN FROM SATURDAY, A
GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL, THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM OF THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE DEFINING A WEAKENING OF THE SHEAR AND A VERY GOOD
DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE, SHOULD ALLOW AN INTENSIFICATION MORE FRANK
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MASCAREIGNES, POTENTIALLY UNTIL THE STAGE OF
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THE TIME OF THE PASSAGE CLOSE TO THE
ISLANDS. THE PRESENT RSMC FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE POSSIBLE
OCCURRENCE OF A REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYEWALL, THE PRECISE
CHRONOLOGY OF WHICH REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. THIS COULD LEAD TO
INTENSITIES DIFFERENT FROM THOSE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN MASCAREIGNES AND THE MALAGASY COAST.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ON MAURITIUS
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN ON REUNION SATURDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY
RAINS AND STRONG WINDS, LEAVING GUSTS APPROACHING 110KM/H ON THE
COAST AND 130KM/H ON THE HEIGHTS, ESPECIALLY ON REUNION.

MOREOVER, THE IMPACT AREA ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR FROM
TUESDAY IS FOCUSED BETWEEN TAMATAVE AND MANANJARA, EVEN IF
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS (ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH) REMAIN POSSIBLE.
THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR
ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 181822
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/02/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 18/02/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 60.9 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 240 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 15 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/19 AT 06 UTC:
16.4 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 255 NM SW: 220 NM NW: 160 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/19 AT 18 UTC:
17.2 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 NM SE: 275 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 170 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 100 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 55 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 181500
WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 220218124643
2022021812 13S EMNATI 005 01 245 09 SATL 020
T000 144S 0613E 075 R064 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 065 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 153S 0595E 080 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 163S 0580E 085 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 170S 0567E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 200 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 175S 0557E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 182S 0531E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 170 NW QD
T096 194S 0494E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 216S 0453E 040 R034 070 NE QD 135 SE QD 115 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 14.4S 61.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 61.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.3S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.3S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.0S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.5S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.2S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.4S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.6S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 60.9E.
18FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 412 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.//
1322021418 145S 793E 20
1322021500 146S 773E 20
1322021506 144S 755E 20
1322021512 143S 738E 25
1322021518 142S 720E 30
1322021600 141S 708E 30
1322021606 140S 701E 30
1322021612 140S 692E 30
1322021618 141S 684E 35
1322021700 141S 674E 45
1322021706 140S 658E 50
1322021706 140S 658E 50
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021800 137S 633E 55
1322021800 137S 633E 55
1322021806 140S 621E 65
1322021806 140S 621E 65
1322021806 140S 621E 65
1322021812 144S 613E 75
1322021812 144S 613E 75
1322021812 144S 613E 75
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 14.4S 61.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 61.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.3S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.3S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.0S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.5S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.2S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.4S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.6S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 60.9E.
18FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 412 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 181251
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/5/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 18/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.5 S / 61.8 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SO: 240 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 95 SO: 150 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 50 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1002 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/02/2022 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 390 SO: 360 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 19/02/2022 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 445 SO: 370 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 175 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 20/02/2022 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 415 SO: 390 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 20/02/2022 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 390 SO: 425 NO: 380
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 280 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 95 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 65

60H: 21/02/2022 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 415 SO: 380 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 75

72H: 21/02/2022 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 425 SO: 350 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/02/2022 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 380 SO: 110 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 85 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 55

120H: 23/02/2022 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LES SOMMETS DES NUAGES SE SONT
RECHAUFFES ET LA CONFIGURATION DE EMNATI EN BANDE INCURVEE S'EST
MAINTENUE EN IMAGES INFRA-ROUGES. UN OEIL EN BANDE A AUSSI PU ETRE
NOTE DEPUIS LE PRECEDENT BULLETIN LAISSANT AINSI UNE ANALYSE DVORAK
AU SEUIL INFERIEUR DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDE AMSR2
DE 0951UTC PERMETTENT DE LOCALISER PLUS PRESICEMENT LE CENTRE DE
EMNATI ET AINSI DE VALIDER LA LEGERE DIRECTION SUD-OUEST PRISE
RECEMMENT. A CE STADE, EMNATI EST DONC UN CYCLONE TROPICAL AVEC DES
VENTS ESTIMES A 65KT EN VENT MOYENS.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, EMNATI CONTINUE SA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET DU RENFORCEMENT DES
GEOPOTENTIELS AU SUD-EST ET AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME. LE MOUVEMENT
GENERAL RESTERA NEANMOINS PILOTE EN PREMIER LIEU PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI RESTE BIEN EN PLACE. CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE PAR LE CMRS, BASEE SUR UN SCENARIO MEDIAN,
FAVORISE AINSI UN PASSAGE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE SAINT-BRANDON PUIS
DANS LE SECTEUR NORD DES MASCAREIGNES. UN LEGER RENFORCEMENT DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE INDUIRA UNE LEGERE INFLEXION VERS LE
OUEST-SUD-OUEST LORS DU PASSAGE AU LPUS PRES DES MASCAREIGNES,
AUGMENTANT UN PEU LA DISTANCE DE PASSAGE VERS 280KM. IL FAUT NOTER
QU'A CES ECHEANCES, L'INCERTAINE EST DE PLUS OU MOINS 120KM. LE
SYSTEME CONTINUE ENSUITE SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE MADAGASCAR
QU'IL ATTEINDRA A ECHEANCE DE MARDI EN COURS DE JOURNEE (LEGEREMENT
PLUS TOT PAR RAPPORT A LA PREVISION PRECEDENTE).

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
ENCORE UN PEU CISAILLEES FAVORISANT UN DEVELOPPEMENT LENT. PUIS A
PARTIR DE SAMEDI, UN BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, LE RAPPROCHEMENT
GRADUEL DU SYSTEME DE L'AXE DE LA DORSALE DEFINISSANT UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT ET UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE, DEVRAIENT PERMETTRE UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS FRANCHE A
L'APPROCHE DES MASCAREIGNES, POTENTIELLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AU MOMENT DU PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES DES ILES.
LA PRESENTE PREVISION DU CMRS PREND EN COMPTE LA SURVENUE EVENTUELLE
D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL DONT LA CHRONOLOGIE
PRECISE RESTE DELICATE A PREVOIR. CELUI-CI POURRAIT CONDUIRE A DES
INTENSITES DIFFERENTES DE CELLES PREVUES, NOTAMMENT ENTRE LE NORD DES
MASCAREIGNES ET LA COTE MALGACHE.

EN TERME D'IMPACTS, LES CONDITIONS VONT SE DEGRADER SUR MAURICE
SAMEDI MATIN PUIS LA REUNION SAMEDI SOIR AVEC DE FORTES PLUIES ET DES
VENTS FORTS, LAISSANT DES RAFALES APPROCHANT LES 110 KM/H SUR LE
LITTORAL ET LES 130KM/H SUR LES HAUTEURS, NOTAMMENT DE LA REUNION.
PAR AILLEURS, LA ZONE D'IMPACT SUR LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR A PARTIR
DE MARDI SE FOCALISE ENTRE TAMATAVE ET MANANJARA, MEME SI DES
SCENARIOS ALTERNATIFS (NOTAMMENT PLUS AU SUD) RESTENT POSSIBLES.
LES HABITANTS DES MASCAREIGNES ET DE LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR SONT
DONC INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 181251
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 61.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SW: 240 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 95 SW: 150 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 50 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/19 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 390 SW: 360 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2022/02/19 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 445 SW: 370 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 175 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2022/02/20 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 415 SW: 390 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2022/02/20 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 390 SW: 425 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 280 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 95 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65

60H: 2022/02/21 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 415 SW: 380 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 75

72H: 2022/02/21 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 425 SW: 350 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/22 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 380 SW: 110 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 85 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 55

120H: 2022/02/23 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED UP AND THE CURVED
BAND PATTERN OF EMNATI HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN INFRARED IMAGES. A
BANDED EYE COULD ALSO BE NOTED SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING LEAVING A
DVORAK ANALYSIS AT THE LOWER THRESHOLD OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
AMSR2 MICROWAVE DATA FROM 0951UTC ALLOW TO LOCATE MORE PRECISELY THE
CENTER OF EMNATI AND THUS TO VALIDATE THE SLIGHT SOUTH-WESTERN
DIRECTION TAKEN RECENTLY. AT THIS STAGE, EMNATI IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 65KT IN MEAN WIND.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY, EMNATI CONTINUES ITS
SOUTH-WESTERN TRACK UNDER THE EFFECT OF STRENGTHENING GEOPOTENTIALS
TO THE SOUTH-EAST AND NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MOVEMENT
WILL NEVERTHELESS REMAIN DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH REMAINS WELL IN PLACE. THIS TRACK FORECASTED
BY THE RSMC, BASED ON A MEDIUM SCENARIO, FAVORS A PASSAGE IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SAINT-BRANDON THEN IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF
THE MASCAREIGNES. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL INDUCE A SLIGHT INFLECTION TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST DURING
THE PASSAGE AT THE LPUS NEAR THE MASCAREIGNES, INCREASING A LITTLE
THE DISTANCE OF PASSAGE TOWARDS 280KM. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AT
THESE DISTANCES, THE UNCERTAINTY IS MORE OR LESS 120KM. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES THEN ITS TRAJECTORY IN DIRECTION OF MADAGASCAR THAT IT WILL
REACH AT THE END OF TUESDAY DURING THE DAY (SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST).

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL A BIT
SHEARED, FAVORING A SLOW DEVELOPMENT. THEN FROM SATURDAY, A GOOD
OCEANIC POTENTIAL, THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM OF THE AXIS OF
THE RIDGE DEFINING A WEAKENING OF THE SHEAR AND A VERY GOOD
DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE, SHOULD ALLOW AN INTENSIFICATION MORE FRANK
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MASCAREIGNES, POTENTIALLY UNTIL THE STAGE OF
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THE TIME OF THE PASSAGE NEAR THE ISLANDS.
THE PRESENT RSMC FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE
OF A REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYEWALL, THE PRECISE TIMING OF WHICH
REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. THIS ONE COULD LEAD TO INTENSITIES
DIFFERENT FROM THOSE FORECASTED, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE NORTH OF THE
MASCAREIGNES AND THE MALAGASY COAST.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ON MAURITIUS
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN ON REUNION SATURDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY
RAINS AND STRONG WINDS, LEAVING GUSTS APPROACHING 110KM/H ON THE
COAST AND 130KM/H ON THE HEIGHTS, ESPECIALLY ON REUNION.
MOREOVER, THE IMPACT AREA ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR FROM
TUESDAY IS FOCUSED BETWEEN TAMATAVE AND MANANJARA, EVEN IF
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS (ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH) REMAIN POSSIBLE.
THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR
ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 181202
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/02/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 18/02/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 61.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 240 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/19 AT 00 UTC:
15.7 S / 59.8 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 150 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/19 AT 12 UTC:
16.7 S / 58.4 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 240 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 175 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 110 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 50 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 180717
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/5/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 18/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.0 S / 62.6 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SO: 240 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 95 SO: 150 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 30 SO: 50 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/02/2022 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SO: 315 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 19/02/2022 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 400 SO: 370 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 19/02/2022 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 480 SO: 390 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SO: 220 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 20/02/2022 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 390 SO: 400 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

60H: 20/02/2022 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 405 SO: 335 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 65

72H: 21/02/2022 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 425 SO: 370 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SO: 250 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/02/2022 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 380 SO: 230 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 165 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

120H: 23/02/2022 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION DE EMNATI A PEU
EVOLUE : LA STRUCTURE EN BANDE INCURVEE SE MAINTIENT. LA
DISPONIBILITE DE L'IMAGE GPM DE 0104UTC PERMET TOUTEFOIS DE NOTER UNE
AMELIORATION DANS LA STRUCTURE DE BASSES COUCHES. L'ANAYLSE DVORAK
PEUT DONC ETRE REHAUSSER A 4.0 DEFINISSANT DES VENTS MOYENS DE
L'ORDRE DE 55KT. L'ASCAT DE 0453UTC SATURE AVEC DES VALEURS A 45KT.
EMNATI EST DONC ENCORE AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE MAIS SON
INTENSITE CONTINUE D'AUGMENTER SOUS UNE LEGERE CONTRAINTE D'ALTTIUDE.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, EMNATI CONTINUE SA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET DU RENFORCEMENT DES
GEOPOTENTIELS AU SUD-EST ET AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME. LE MOUVEMENT
GENERAL RESTERA NEANMOINS PILOTE EN PREMIER LIEU PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI RESTE BIEN EN PLACE, SOUS UN
FLUX DIRECTEUR QUI REMONTE EN ALTITUDE AVEC L'INTENSIFICATION DU
SYSTEME. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE PAR LE CMRS, BASEE SUR UN SCENARIO
MEDIAN, FAVORISE AINSI UN PASSAGE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE
SAINT-BRANDON PUIS DANS LE SECTEUR NORD DES MASCAREIGNES. UN LEGER
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE INDUIRA UNE LEGERE INFLEXION
VERS LE OUEST-SUD-OUEST LORS DU PASSAGE PRES DES MASCAREIGNES,
AUGMENTANT UN PEU LA DISTANCE DE PASSAGE VERS 300KM. IL FAUT NOTER
QU'A CES ECHEANCES, L'INCERTAINE EST DE PLUS OU MOINS 150KM. A PARTIR
DE DIMANCHE-LUNDI, LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE S'AFFAIBLIT UN PEU
ET LE SYSTEME EST PLUS FRANCHEMENT DIRIGE VERS L'OUEST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, LE DIRIGEANT VERS MADAGASCAR
AVEC UN ATTERRISSAGE A ECHEANCE DE MARDI SOIR. MAIS AVEC UNE
DISPERSION ENCORE ASSEZ CONSEQUENTE EN LIEN AVEC DE POSSIBLES
FAIBLESSES DANS LA DORSALE LAISSE UNE POSSIBILITE QUE LE SYSTEME
MAINTIENT UNE ORIENTATION SUD UN PEU PLUS MARQUEE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
ENCORE UN PEU CISAILLEES SUR LES PROCHAINES 24H FAVORISANT UN
DEVELOPPEMENT LENT. UN BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, PUIS LE RAPPROCHEMENT
GRADUEL DU SYSTEME DE L'AXE DE LA DORSALE CE WEEK-END AVEC UNE TRES
BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, DEVRAIENT PERMETTRE UNE INTENSIFICATION
PLUS FRANCHE A L'APPROCHE DES MASCAREIGNES, POTENTIELLEMENT JUSQU'AU
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AU MOMENT DU PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES
DES ILES. NEANMOINS, LA SURVENUE EVENTUELLE D'UN CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL POURRAIT CONDUIRE A DES INTENSITES
DIFFERENTES DE CELLES PREVUES, NOTAMMENT ENTRE LE NORD DES
MASCAREIGNES ET LA COTE MALGACHE.

EN TERME D'IMPACTS, LES CONDITIONS VONT SE DEGRADER SUR MAURICE
SAMEDI MATIN PUIS LA REUNION SAMEDI SOIR AVEC DE FORTES PLUIES ET DES
VENTS FORTS, LAISSANT DES RAFALES APPROCHANT LES 110 KM/H SUR LE
LITTORAL ET LES 130KM/H SUR LES HAUTEURS, NOTAMMENT DE LA REUNION.
PAR AILLEURS, LA ZONE D'IMPACT SUR LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR A PARTIR
DE MARDI SE FOCALISE ENTRE TAMATAVE ET MANANJARA, MEME SI DES
SCENARIOS ALTERNATIFS (NOTAMMENT PLUS AU SUD) RESTENT POSSIBLES.
LES HABITANTS DES MASCAREIGNES ET DE LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR SONT
DONC INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 180717
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/5/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 62.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SW: 240 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 95 SW: 150 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 30 SW: 50 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/18 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2022/02/19 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 400 SW: 370 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2022/02/19 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 480 SW: 390 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2022/02/20 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 390 SW: 400 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2022/02/20 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 405 SW: 335 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65

72H: 2022/02/21 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 425 SW: 370 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/22 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 380 SW: 230 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

120H: 2022/02/23 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONFIGURATION OF EMNATI HAS CHANGED
LITTLE: THE CURVED BAND STRUCTURE IS MAINTAINED. THE AVAILABILITY OF
THE GPM IMAGE OF 0104UTC ALLOWS HOWEVER TO NOTE AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE
STRUCTURE OF LOW LAYERS. THE DVORAK ANAYLSE CAN THEREFORE BE RAISED
TO 4.0 DEFINING MEAN WINDS OF ABOUT 55KT. THE 0453UTC ASCAT SWATH
SATURATES WITH VALUES AT 45KT. EMNATI IS STILL AT THE STAGE OF A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM BUT ITS INTENSITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE UNDER A
SLIGHT WEATHER CONSTRAINT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK, EMNATI CONTINUES ITS SOUTH-WESTERN
TRACK UNDER THE EFFECT OF STRENGTHENING GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE
SOUTH-EAST AND NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MOVEMENT WILL
NEVERTHELESS BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE, UNDER A STEERING FLOW WHICH IS
MOVING UPWARDS AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. THIS TRAJECTORY PREDICTED
BY THE RSMC, BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO, FAVOURS A PASSAGE IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SAINT-BRANDON THEN IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF
THE MASCARENE ISLANDS. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL INDUCE A SLIGHT INFLECTION TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST
DURING THE PASSAGE NEAR THE MASCAREIGNES, INCREASING A LITTLE THE
DISTANCE OF PASSAGE TOWARDS 300KM. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AT THESE
DISTANCES, THE UNCERTAINTY IS MORE OR LESS 150KM. FROM SUNDAY-MONDAY,
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE WEAKENS A LITTLE AND THE SYSTEM IS MORE
FRANKLY DIRECTED TOWARDS THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DIRECTING IT TOWARDS MADAGASCAR WITH A LANDING AT
THE END OF TUESDAY EVENING. BUT WITH A STILL RATHER CONSEQUENT
DISPERSION IN CONNECTION WITH POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE LEAVES
A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS A SOUTHERN ORIENTATION A
LITTLE MORE MARKED.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL A
LITTLE SHEARED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FAVORING A SLOW DEVELOPMENT. A
GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL, THEN THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM OF
THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WITH A VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE OF
ALTITUDE, SHOULD ALLOW AN INTENSIFICATION MORE FRANK WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS, POTENTIALLY UNTIL THE STAGE OF
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THE TIME OF THE PASSAGE NEAR THE ISLANDS.
NEVERTHELESS, THE POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE OF A REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE
EYEWALL COULD LEAD TO INTENSITIES DIFFERENT FROM THOSE FORECASTED,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE NORTHERN MASCARENE ISLANDS AND THE MALAGASY
COAST.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ON MAURITIUS
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN ON REUNION SATURDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY
RAINS AND STRONG WINDS, LEAVING GUSTS APPROACHING 110KM/H ON THE
COAST AND 130KM/H ON THE HEIGHTS, ESPECIALLY ON REUNION.
MOREOVER, THE IMPACT AREA ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR FROM
TUESDAY IS FOCUSED BETWEEN TAMATAVE AND MANANJARA, EVEN IF
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS (ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH) REMAIN POSSIBLE.
THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR
ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 180607
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/02/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 18/02/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (EMNATI) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 62.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 280 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/18 AT 18 UTC:
15.3 S / 60.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/19 AT 06 UTC:
16.3 S / 59.1 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 145 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 180300
WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 220218014250
2022021800 13S EMNATI 004 01 295 07 SATL 040
T000 134S 0630E 055 R050 005 NE QD 000 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 020 NE QD 005 SE QD 015 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 138S 0613E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 146S 0596E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 155S 0581E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 160S 0570E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 176S 0549E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 181S 0519E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 194S 0482E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 13.4S 63.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 63.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 13.8S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.6S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.5S 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.0S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.6S 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.1S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.4S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 62.6E.
18FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 518
NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND 190300Z.
//
1322021418 145S 793E 20
1322021500 146S 773E 20
1322021506 144S 755E 20
1322021512 143S 738E 25
1322021518 142S 720E 30
1322021600 141S 708E 30
1322021606 140S 701E 30
1322021612 140S 692E 30
1322021618 141S 684E 35
1322021700 141S 674E 45
1322021706 140S 658E 45
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021712 139S 645E 55
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021718 137S 637E 50
1322021800 134S 630E 55
1322021800 134S 630E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 13.4S 63.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 63.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 13.8S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.6S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.5S 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.0S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.6S 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.1S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.4S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 62.6E.
18FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 518
NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND 190300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 180135
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/5/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 18/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.9 S / 63.1 E
(TREIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SO: 240 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SO: 40 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1002 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/02/2022 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SO: 305 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 140 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 45 SO: 75 NO: 65

24H: 19/02/2022 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 360 SO: 370 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SO: 150 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 19/02/2022 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 345 SO: 370 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 20/02/2022 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 435 SO: 400 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SO: 175 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 20/02/2022 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 405 SO: 390 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

72H: 21/02/2022 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 400 SO: 390 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SO: 260 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/02/2022 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 425 SO: 305 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75

120H: 23/02/2022 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SO: 95 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 65 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 50 NO: 80

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION EST RESTEE VIGOUREUSE
AVEC DES SOMMETS TRES FROIDS PRES DU CENTRE. LA CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE TEMOIGNE D'UNE BAISSE DES EFFETS DU CISAILLEMENT, AVEC LA
MISE EN PLACE D'UNE STRUCTURE EN BANDE INCURVEE A FORT ENROULEMENT DU
COTE OUEST, NORD ET EST DU CENTRE. LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES (ADT,
SATCON) MONTRENT UNE LEGERE HAUSSE D'INTENSITE DEPUIS JEUDI SOIR.
L'INTENSITE EST DONC MONTEE A 50 KT. PAR AILLEURS, LES PASSES ASCAT A
1659Z ET 1746Z ONT MONTRE LA PRESENCE DE COUP DE VENT DANS TOUS LES
SECTEURS DE LA CIRCULATION, SIGNE D'UN SYSTEME DEVENANT PLUS
SYMETRIQUE.

EMNATI EST MAINTENANT EN TRAIN D'AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST
SOUS L'EFFET DU RENFORCEMENT DES GEOPOTENTIELS AU SUD-EST ET AU
NORD-EST DU SYSTEME. LE MOUVEMENT GENERAL RESTERA NEANMOINS PILOTE EN
PREMIER LIEU PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI
RESTE BIEN EN PLACE, SOUS UN FLUX DIRECTEUR QUI REMONTE EN ALTITUDE
AVEC L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE, BASEE SUR
UN SCENARIO MEDIAN, FAVORISE AINSI UN PASSAGE A PROXIMITE DE
SAINT-BRANDON PUIS DANS LE SECTEUR NORD DES ILES SOEURS, MAIS A UNE
DISTANCE ENCORE INCERTAINE (250-300 KM AU NORD DE MAURICE, 300-350 KM
AU NORD DE LA REUNION MAIS AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE DE PLUS OU MOINS
150-200 KM). A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE-LUNDI, LA DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE S'AFFAIBLIT UN PEU ET LE SYSTEME EST PLUS FRANCHEMENT
DIRIGE VERS L'OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, LE
DIRIGEANT VERS MADAGASCAR, MAIS AVEC UNE DISPERSION ENCORE ASSEZ
CONSEQUENTE EN LIEN AVEC DE POSSIBLES FAIBLESSES DANS LA DORSALE QUI
PEUVENT ATTIRER PLUS OU MOINS LE SYSTEME VERS LE SUD.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
ENCORE UN PEU CISAILLEES SUR LES PROCHAINES 24H (LE DEPLACEMENT ASSEZ
RAPIDE DU MINIMUM DANS LE SENS DU CISAILLEMENT EN ATTENUANT UN PEU
L'INFLUENCE), FAVORISANT UN DEVELOPPEMENT LENT. UN BON POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE, PUIS LE RAPPROCHEMENT GRADUEL DU SYSTEME DE L'AXE DE LA
DORSALE CE WEEK-END AVEC UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE,
DEVRAIENT PERMETTRE UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS FRANCHE A L'APPROCHE DU
NORD DES MASCAREIGNES, POTENTIELLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE AU MOMENT DU PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES DES ILES.
NEANMOINS, LA SURVENUE EVENTUELLE D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR
DE L'OEIL POURRAIT CONDUIRE A DES INTENSITES DIFFERENTES DE CELLES
PREVUES, NOTAMMENT ENTRE LE NORD DES MASCAREIGNES ET LA COTE
MALGACHE.

LES CONDITIONS VONT SE DEGRADER SUR MAURICE SAMEDI MATIN PUIS LA
REUNION SAMEDI SOIR AVEC UNE AUGMENTATION DE LA PROBABILITE DE FORTES
PLUIES ET DE VENTS FORTS (SCENARIO LE PLUS PROBABLE : CONDITIONS DE
GRAND FRAIS A COUP DE VENT AVEC DES RAFALES POUVANT APPROCHER LES 100
KM/H).
PAR AILLEURS, LES PROBABILITES D'IMPACT SONT EN HAUSSE POUR LA COTE
EST DE MADAGASCAR A PARTIR DE MARDI, AVEC UNE PROBABILITE PLUS FORTE
ENTRE TAMATAVE ET MANANJARA, MEME SI DES SCENARIOS ALTERNATIFS
(NOTAMMENT PLUS AU SUD) RESTENT POSSIBLES.
LES HABITANTS DES MASCAREIGNES ET DE LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR SONT
DONC INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 180135
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/5/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 63.1 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SW: 240 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SW: 40 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/18 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 305 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 45 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2022/02/19 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 360 SW: 370 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2022/02/19 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 345 SW: 370 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2022/02/20 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 435 SW: 400 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 175 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2022/02/20 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 405 SW: 390 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2022/02/21 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 400 SW: 390 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 260 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/22 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 425 SW: 305 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

120H: 2022/02/23 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SW: 95 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 65 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 50 NW: 80

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS REMAINED PARTICULARLY STRONG
WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN SEAMS TO
BE LESS AFFECTED BY WIND SHEAR WITH A NICE CURVED BAND WRAPPING WEST,
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (ADT, SATCON) HAVE
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SINCE THURSDAY EVENING. INTENSITY IS THEREFORE
UPGRADED TO 50 KT. MOREOVER, 1659Z AND 1746Z ASCAT PASSES SHOW THAT
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOW PRESENT IN ALL SECTORS OF THE CIRCULATION,
INDICATING IT IS BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL.

EMNATI IS NOW STARTING A SOUTH-WESTERN TURN UNDER THE EFFECT OF
STRENGTHENING GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTH-EAST AND NORTH-EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MOVEMENT WILL NEVERTHELESS REMAIN DRIVEN
PRIMARILY BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH REMAINS WELL
ESTABLISHED, UNDER A MORE ELEVATED STEERING FLOW AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES. THE FORECAST TRACK, BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO, FAVOURS
A PASSAGE CLOSE TO SAINT-BRANDON AND THEN IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF
THE GREAT MASCARENE ISLANDS, BUT AT A STILL UNCERTAIN DISTANCE
(250-300 KM NORTH OF MAURITIUS, 300-350 KM NORTH OF REUNION ISLAND
BUT WITH AN UNCERTAINTY OF MORE OR LESS 150-200 KM) FROM SUNDAY OR
MONDAY, THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE WEAKENS A LITTLE AND THE SYSTEM IS
MORE CLEARLY STEERED WESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, DIRECTING IT TOWARDS MADAGASCAR, BUT WITH FAIRLY HIGH
DISPERSION IN CONNECTION WITH POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE WHICH
COULD ATTRACT IT MORE OR LESS SOUTHWARD.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL A BIT
SHEARED FOR THE NEXT 24H (THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR ATTENUATING A BIT ITS INFLUENCE), FAVORING
SLOW DEVELOPMENT. GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL THEN THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE'S AXIS THIS WEEKEND WITH
VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW MORE ENHANCED INTENSIFICATION
AS EMNATI APPROACHES TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT MASCARENE ISLANDS,
POTENTIALLY AT INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. NEVERTHELESS, THE
EVENTUAL OCCURRENCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) COULD LEAD
INTENSITIES DIFFERENT FROM THOSE FORECASTED, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE
NORTH OF THE MASCARENES AND THE MALAGASY COAST.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER MAURITIUS SATURDAY MORNING THEN
REUNION SATURDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS (MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO: NEAR-GALE OR GALE
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS THAT COULD APPROACH 100 KM/H).
MOREOVER, THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACT IS INCREASING FOR THE EAST COAST
OF MADAGASCAR FROM TUESDAY, WITH A HIGHER RISK BETWEEN TOAMASINA AND
MANANJARA, EVEN IF ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS (ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH)
REMAIN POSSIBLE.
THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS AND THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR ARE THUS INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 180026
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/02/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 18/02/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (EMNATI) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 63.1 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 20
NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/18 AT 12 UTC:
14.6 S / 61.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/19 AT 00 UTC:
15.7 S / 60.1 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 145 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 171835
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/5/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 17/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.7 S / 63.7 E
(TREIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SO: 240 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 45 SO: 95 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/02/2022 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SO: 295 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 110 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 35

24H: 18/02/2022 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SO: 335 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 165 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75

36H: 19/02/2022 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 370 SO: 405 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 19/02/2022 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 400 SO: 380 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 185 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 35 NO: 45

60H: 20/02/2022 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 405 SO: 370 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

72H: 20/02/2022 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 425 SO: 405 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/02/2022 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 445 SO: 425 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75

120H: 22/02/2022 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 390 SO: 370 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION EST RESTEE
PARTICULIEREMENT VIGOUREUSE AVEC DES SOMMETS TRES FROIDS PRES DU
CENTRE. DES PASSES ASCAT A 1659Z ET 1749Z PERMETTENT D'ESTIMER LA
POSITION DU CENTRE ET MONTRENT LA PRESENCE QUE LE COUP DE VENT EST
DESORMAIS PRESENT DANS TOUS LES SECTEURS DE LA CIRCULATION, INCLUANT
LE SUD-EST. LES VENTS MAXIMAUX MESURES PAR CES ASCAT SONT DE L'ORDRE
DE 40 KT. UNE PASSE SMAP A 1345Z INDIQUAIT DES VENTS A 43 KT. LES
ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES ONT PEU EVOLUE, PROCHES DE
T3.5. L'INTENSITE COURANTE RESTE DONC ESTIMEE A 45 KT.

APRES AVOIR SUIVI UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST CES DERNIERS JOURS,
EMNATI EST MAINTENANT SUR LE POINT D'AMORCER UN VIRAGE VERS LE
SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET DU RENFORCEMENT DES GEOPOTENTIELS AU SUD-EST
ET AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME. LE MOUVEMENT GENERAL RESTERA NEANMOINS
PILOTE EN PREMIER LIEU PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE QUI RESTE BIEN EN PLACE, SOUS UN FLUX DIRECTEUR QUI
REMONTE EN ALTITUDE AVEC L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. LA TRAJECTOIRE
PREVUE, BASEE SUR UN SCENARIO MEDIAN, FAVORISE AINSI UN PASSAGE A
PROXIMITE DE SAINT-BRANDON PUIS DANS LE SECTEUR NORD DES ILES SOEURS,
MAIS A UNE DISTANCE ENCORE INCERTAINE (250-300 KM AU NORD DE MAURICE,
300-350 KM AU NORD DE LA REUNION MAIS AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE DE PLUS OU
MOINS 150-200 KM). A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE-LUNDI, LA DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE S'AFFAIBLIT UN PEU ET LE SYSTEME EST PLUS FRANCHEMENT
DIRIGE VERS L'OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, LE
DIRIGEANT VERS MADAGASCAR, MAIS AVEC UNE DISPERSION EN HAUSSE EN LIEN
AVEC DE POSSIBLES FAIBLESSES DANS LA DORSALE QUI PEUVENT ATTIRER PLUS
OU MOINS LE SYSTEME VERS LE SUD.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
ENCORE UN PEU CISAILLEES SUR LES PROCHAINES 24 A 36H (LE DEPLACEMENT
ASSEZ RAPIDE DU MINIMUM DANS LE SENS DU CISAILLEMENT EN ATTENUANT UN
PEU L'INFLUENCE), FAVORISANT UN DEVELOPPEMENT LENT. UN BON POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE, PUIS LE RAPPROCHEMENT GRADUEL DU SYSTEME DE L'AXE DE LA
DORSALE CE WEEK-END AVEC UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE,
DEVRAIENT PERMETTRE UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS FRANCHE A L'APPROCHE DU
NORD DES MASCAREIGNES, POTENTIELLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE AU MOMENT DU PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES DES ILES.
NEANMOINS, LA SURVENUE EVENTUELLE D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR
DE L'OEIL POURRAIT CONDUIRE A DES INTENSITES DIFFERENTES DE CELLES
PREVUES, NOTAMMENT ENTRE LE NORD DES MASCAREIGNES ET LA COTE
MALGACHE.

AVEC L'APPROCHE DE CE SYSTEME, LES CONDITIONS VONT SE DEGRADER SUR
MAURICE (SAMEDI MATIN) PUIS LA REUNION (SAMEDI SOIR) AVEC UNE
AUGMENTATION DE LA PROBABILITE DE FORTES PLUIES ET DE VENTS FORTS
(SCENARIO LE PLUS PROBABLE : CONDITIONS DE GRAND FRAIS A COUP DE VENT
AVEC DES RAFALES POUVANT APPROCHER LES 100 KM/H).
PAR AILLEURS, LES PROBABILITES D'IMPACT SONT EN HAUSSE POUR LA COTE
EST DE MADAGASCAR A PARTIR DE MARDI, AVEC UNE PROBABILITE PLUS FORTE
ENTRE TAMATAVE ET MANANJARA, MEME SI DES SCENARIOS ALTERNATIFS
(NOTAMMENT PLUS AU SUD) RESTENT POSSIBLES.
LES HABITANTS DES MASCAREIGNES ET DE LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR SONT
DONC INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 171835
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/5/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7 S / 63.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SW: 240 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 45 SW: 95 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/18 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 35

24H: 2022/02/18 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75

36H: 2022/02/19 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 370 SW: 405 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2022/02/19 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 400 SW: 380 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 35 NW: 45

60H: 2022/02/20 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 405 SW: 370 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2022/02/20 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 425 SW: 405 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/21 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 445 SW: 425 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

120H: 2022/02/22 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 390 SW: 370 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS REMAINED PARTICULARLY STRONG
WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER. 1659Z AND 1749Z ASCAT
PASSES ALLOW TO ESTIMATE THE CENTER'S LOCATION AND SHOW THAT GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE NOW PRESENT IN ALL SECTORS OF THE CIRCULATION,
INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM MEASURED ASCAT WINDS ARE AROUND 40
KT. A 1345Z SMAP PASS INDICATED WINDS PEAKING AT 43 KT. OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES HAVEN'T CHANGED VERY MUCH, STILL CLOSE TO T3.5.
CURRENT INTENSITY IS THEREFORE KEPT AT 45 KT.

AFTER HAVING FOLLOWED A WESTWARD TRACH DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS,
EMNATI IS NOW ABOUT TO START A SOUTH-WESTERN TURN UNDER THE EFFECT OF
THE STRENGTHENING OF GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTH-EAST AND NORTH-EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MOVEMENT WILL NEVERTHELESS REMAIN DRIVEN
PRIMARILY BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH REMAINS WELL
ESTABLISHED, UNDER A MORE ELEVATED STEERING FLOW AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES. THE FORECAST TRACK, BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO, FAVOURS
A PASSAGE CLOSE TO SAINT-BRANDON AND THEN IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF
THE GREAT MASCARENE ISLANDS, BUT AT A STILL UNCERTAIN DISTANCE
(250-300 KM NORTH OF MAURITIUS, 300-350 KM NORTH OF REUNION ISLAND
BUT WITH AN UNCERTAINTY OF MORE OR LESS 150-200 KM) FROM SUNDAY OR
MONDAY, THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE WEAKENS A LITTLE AND THE SYSTEM IS
MORE CLEARLY STEERED WESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, DIRECTING IT TOWARDS MADAGASCAR, BUT WITH INCREASING
DISPERSION IN CONNECTION WITH POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE WHICH
COULD ATTRACT IT MORE OR LESS SOUTHWARD.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL A BIT
SHEARED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36H (THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR ATTENUATING A BIT ITS INFLUENCE), FAVORING
SLOW DEVELOPMENT. GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL THEN THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE'S AXIS THIS WEEKEND WITH
VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW MORE ENHANCED INTENSIFICATION
AS EMNATI APPROACHES TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT MASCARENE ISLANDS,
POTENTIALLY AT INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. NEVERTHELESS, THE
EVENTUAL OCCURRENCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) COULD LEAD
INTENSITIES DIFFERENT FROM THOSE FORECASTED, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE
NORTH OF THE MASCARENES AND THE MALAGASY COAST.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM, CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER
MAURITIUS (SATURDAY MORNING) THEN REUNION (SATURDAY EVENING) WITH AN
INCREASING PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS (MOST
PROBABLE SCENARIO: NEAR-GALE OR GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS THAT COULD
APPROACH 100 KM/H).
MOREOVER, THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACT IS INCREASING FOR THE EAST COAST
OF MADAGASCAR FROM TUESDAY, WITH A HIGHER RISK BETWEEN TOAMASINA AND
MANANJARA, EVEN IF ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS (ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH)
REMAIN POSSIBLE.
THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS AND THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR ARE THUS INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 171814
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/02/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 17/02/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (EMNATI) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7 S / 63.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/18 AT 06 UTC:
14.2 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/18 AT 18 UTC:
15.2 S / 60.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 171500
WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 220217125450
2022021712 13S EMNATI 003 01 275 16 SATL 020
T000 139S 0642E 055 R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 140S 0625E 065 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 147S 0610E 075 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 155S 0594E 080 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 163S 0579E 085 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 172S 0555E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 170 NW QD
T096 179S 0528E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 170 NW QD
T120 188S 0497E 075 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 13.9S 64.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 64.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.0S 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.7S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.5S 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.3S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.2S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.9S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.8S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 63.8E.
17FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z.//
1322021418 145S 793E 20
1322021500 146S 773E 20
1322021506 144S 755E 20
1322021512 143S 738E 25
1322021518 142S 720E 30
1322021600 141S 708E 30
1322021606 140S 701E 30
1322021612 140S 692E 30
1322021618 141S 684E 35
1322021700 141S 674E 45
1322021706 140S 658E 45
1322021712 139S 642E 55
1322021712 139S 642E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 13.9S 64.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 64.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.0S 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.7S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.5S 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.3S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.2S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.9S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.8S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 63.8E.
17FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 171252
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/5/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 17/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.6 S / 64.8 E
(TREIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SO: 240 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 75 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1001 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/02/2022 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 250 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 18/02/2022 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SO: 305 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 75

36H: 19/02/2022 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 360 SO: 345 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 75

48H: 19/02/2022 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SO: 350 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 55

60H: 20/02/2022 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 445 SO: 345 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SO: 155 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 20/02/2022 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 445 SO: 370 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 175 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/02/2022 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 455 SO: 390 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SO: 250 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65

120H: 22/02/2022 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 415 SO: 120 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SO: 85 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SO: 60 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES SIX HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST
LEGEREMENT DEGRADEE PAR RAPPORT A CE MATIN MAIS LES SOMMETSNUAGEUX
RESTENT TRES FROIDS PRES DU CENTRE. LES ESTIMATIONS D'INTENSITE
OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES RENTENT INCHANGEES PAR RAPPORT A CE MATIN
ET L'INTENSITE COURANTE RESTE DONC ESTIMEE A 45 KT.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT EVOLUER VERS
L'OUEST, EN BORDURE NORD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE
TROPOSPHERE SITUEE COTE SUD ET SUD-OUEST. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, UN
VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE PRODUIRE AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT
TEMPORAIRE DES GEOPOTENTIELS AU SUD-EST PUIS AU NORD-EST, FAISANT
PASSER LE SYSTEME PRES DE SAINT-BRANDON. LE MOUVEMENT GENERAL RESTERA
NEANMOINS PILOTE EN PREMIER LIEU PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI RESTE BIEN EN PLACE, SOUS UN FLUX DIRECTEUR
QUI REMONTE EN ALTITUDE AVEC L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. LA
TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE, BASEE SUR UN SCENARIO MEDIAN, FAVORISE AINSI UN
PASSAGE DU SYSTEME DANS LE SECTEUR NORD DES ILES SOEURS, MAIS A UNE
DISTANCE ENCORE INCERTAINE (250-300 KM AU NORD DE MAURICE, 300-350 KM
AU NORD DE LA REUNION MAIS AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE DE PLUS OU MOINS
150-200 KM COMPTE TENU DE L'ECHEANCE). A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE-LUNDI, LA
DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE S'EFFACE ET LE SYSTEME EST PLUS
FRANCHEMENT DIRIGE VERS L'OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
ENCORE UN PEU CISAILLEES SUR LES PROCHAINES 24 A 48H (LE DEPLACEMENT
ASSEZ RAPIDE DU MINIMUM DANS LE SENS DU CISAILLEMENT EN ATTENUANT UN
PEU L'INFLUENCE), FAVORISANT UN DEVELOPPEMENT LENT. UN BON POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE, PUIS LE RAPPROCHEMENT GRADUEL DU SYSTEME DE L'AXE DE LA
DORSALE EN FIN DE SEMAINE AVEC UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE,
DEVRAIENT PERMETTRE UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS FRANCHE A L'APPROCHE DU
NORD DES MASCAREIGNES, POTENTIELLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL VOIRE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE A PARTIR DE CE WEEK-END.


AVEC L'APPROCHE DE CE SYSTEME, LES CONDITIONS VONT SE DEGRADER SUR
MAURICE (SAMEDI MATIN) PUIS LA REUNION (SAMEDI SOIR) AVEC UNE
AUGMENTATION DE LA PROBABILITE DE FORTES PLUIES ET DE VENTS FORTS (
CONDITIONS DE GRAND FRAIS A COUP DE VENT APPARAIT COMME LE SCENARIO
LE PLUS PROBABLE POUR LES ILES SOEURS AVEC DES RAFALES POUVANT
APPROCHER LES 100 KM/H)

A PLUS LONG TERME (FIN D'ECHEANCE), LES PROBABILITES D'IMPACT SONT EN
HAUSSE POUR LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR SANS POUR AUTANT POUVOIR
PRECISER UN POINT D'IMPACT NI UN TIMING.

LES HABITANTS DES MASCAREIGNES ET DE LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR SONT
DONC INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 171252
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/5/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/17 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 64.8 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 240 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/18 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2022/02/18 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 305 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 75

36H: 2022/02/19 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 360 SW: 345 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75

48H: 2022/02/19 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SW: 350 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 55

60H: 2022/02/20 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 445 SW: 345 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2022/02/20 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 445 SW: 370 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/21 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 455 SW: 390 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65

120H: 2022/02/22 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 415 SW: 120 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 85 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 60 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS SLIGHTLY
DETERIORATED COMPARED TO THIS MORNING BUT THE CLOUD TOPS REMAIN VERY
COLD NEAR THE CENTER. THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY REMAINS ESTIMATED AT 45 KT.

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE TOWARDS THE WEST,
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW TROPOSPHERE
LOCATED ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST COAST. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, A TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE TEMPORARY STRENGTHENING
OF THE GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTH-EAST AND THEN TO THE NORTH-EAST,
MAKING THE SYSTEM PASS CLOSE TO SAINT-BRANDON. THE GENERAL MOVEMENT
WILL NEVERTHELESS REMAIN DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH REMAINS WELL IN PLACE, UNDER A STEERING
FLOW THAT IS MOVING UPWARDS AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. THE FORECAST
TRAJECTORY, BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO, FAVOURS A PASSAGE OF THE
SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE SISTER ISLANDS, BUT AT A STILL
UNCERTAIN DISTANCE (250-300 KM NORTH OF MAURITIUS, 300-350 KM NORTH
OF REUNION, BUT WITH AN UNCERTAINTY OF MORE OR LESS 150-200 KM,
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE TIME SCALE) FROM SUNDAY-MONDAY, THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL DISAPPEAR AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE MORE CLEARLY
DIRECTED TOWARDS THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL A BIT
SHEARED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS (THE RATHER FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
MINIMUM IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR ATTENUATING A BIT ITS
INFLUENCE), FAVORING A SLOW DEVELOPMENT. A GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL,
THEN THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM OF THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE AT
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE, SHOULD
ALLOW AN INTENSIFICATION MORE FRANK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NORTH OF
THE MASCARENE ISLANDS, POTENTIALLY UNTIL THE STAGE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE OR EVEN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THIS WEEKEND.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM, THE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ON
MAURITIUS (SATURDAY MORNING) THEN ON REUNION (SATURDAY EVENING) WITH
AN INCREASE OF THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS
(CONDITIONS OF GREAT FRESHNESS WITH GALE APPEARS AS THE MOST PROBABLE
SCENARIO FOR THE SISTER ISLANDS WITH GUSTS WHICH CAN APPROACH THE 100
KM/H)

IN THE LONGER TERM (END OF TIME), THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACT IS
INCREASING FOR THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO
SPECIFY A POINT OF IMPACT OR A TIMING.

THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR
ARE THEREFORE INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 171226
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/02/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 17/02/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (EMNATI) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 64.8 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/18 AT 00 UTC:
13.8 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/18 AT 12 UTC:
14.7 S / 61.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 170638
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/5/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 17/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.9 S / 65.9 E
(TREIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE CINQ DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SO: 185 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 75 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1001 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/02/2022 18 UTC: 14.1 S / 63.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 18/02/2022 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SO: 285 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 75

36H: 18/02/2022 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SO: 305 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 75

48H: 19/02/2022 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 405 SO: 325 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SO: 155 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 19/02/2022 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 435 SO: 350 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 155 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 55

72H: 20/02/2022 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 465 SO: 315 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 155 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/02/2022 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 480 SO: 380 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SO: 205 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

120H: 22/02/2022 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 465 SO: 315 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 195 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES SIX HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE CONTINUE
DE S'AMELIORER AVEC LA FORMATION D'UN IMPOSANT CDO EN IMAGERIE
VISIBLE. L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES MONTRE QU'UN COEUR INTERNE TENTE DE
SE CONSTITUER MAIS CELUI-CI RESTE POU L'INSTANT AFFECTE PAR LA
PERSISTANCE D'UNE CONTRAINTE DE CISAILLEMENT D'EST. L'INTENSITE
ESTIMEE EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES (45-50 KT)
ET LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES A 40-50 KT (10-MIN).

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT EVOLUER VERS
L'OUEST, EN BORDURE NORD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE
TROPOSPHERE SITUEE COTE SUD ET SUD-OUEST. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, UN
VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE PRODUIRE AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT
TEMPORAIRE DES GEOPOTENTIELS AU SUD-EST PUIS AU NORD-EST, FAISANT
PASSER LE SYSTEME PRES DE SAINT-BRANDON. LE MOUVEMENT GENERAL RESTERA
NEANMOINS PILOTE EN PREMIER LIEU PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI RESTE BIEN EN PLACE, SOUS UN FLUX DIRECTEUR
QUI REMONTE EN ALTITUDE AVEC L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. LA
TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE, BASEE SUR UN SCENARIO MEDIAN, FAVORISE AINSI UN
PASSAGE DU SYSTEME DANS LE SECTEUR NORD DES ILES SOEURS, MAIS A UNE
DISTANCE ENCORE INCERTAINE (250 A 350 KM DES ILES MAURICE ET DE LA
REUNION MAIS AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE DE PLUS OU MOINS 150-200 KM COMPTE
TENU DE L'ECHEANCE)

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
ENCORE UN PEU CISAILLEES A COURT TERME (LE DEPLACEMENT ASSEZ RAPIDE
DU MINIMUM DANS LE SENS DU CISAILLEMENT EN ATTENUANT UN PEU
L'INFLUENCE). UN BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, PUIS LE RAPPROCHEMENT
GRADUEL DU SYSTEME DE L'AXE DE LA DORSALE EN FIN DE SEMAINE AVEC UNE
TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, DEVRAIENT PERMETTRE UNE
INTENSIFICATION PLUS FRANCHE A L'APPROCHE DU NORD DES MASCAREIGNES,
POTENTIELLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL VOIRE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE A PARTIR DE CE WEEK-END. LES MODELISATIONS SONT
ENCORE RELATIVEMENT DISPERSEES SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE, QUI EST
DONC ENCORE INCERTAINE.


AVEC L'APPROCHE DE CE SYSTEME, LES CONDITIONS VONT SE DEGRADER SUR
MAURICE (SAMEDI MATIN) PUIS LA REUNION (SAMEDI SOIR) AVEC UNE
AUGMENTATION DE LA PROBABILITE DE FORTES PLUIES ET DE VENTS FORTS (
CONDITIONS DE GRAND FRAIS A COUP DE VENT APPARAIT COMME LE SCENARIO
LE PLUS PROBABLE POUR LES ILES SOEURS AVEC DES RAFALES POUVANT
APPROCHER LES 100 KM/H)

A PLUS LONG TERME (FIN D'ECHEANCE), LES PROBABILITES D'IMPACT SONT EN
HAUSSE POUR LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR SANS POUR AUTANT POUVOIR
PRECISER UN POINT D'IMPACT NI UN TIMING.

LES HABITANTS DES MASCAREIGNES ET DE LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR SONT
DONC INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 170638
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/5/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 65.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 185 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/17 18 UTC: 14.1 S / 63.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2022/02/18 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 285 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75

36H: 2022/02/18 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SW: 305 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 75

48H: 2022/02/19 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 405 SW: 325 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2022/02/19 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 435 SW: 350 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 155 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 55

72H: 2022/02/20 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 465 SW: 315 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 155 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/21 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 480 SW: 380 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

120H: 2022/02/22 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 465 SW: 315 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE WITH THE FORMATION OF A LARGE CDO IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AN INNER CORE IS TRYING TO FORM BUT IT
REMAINS FOR THE MOMENT AFFECTED BY THE PERSISTENCE OF AN EASTERLY
SHEAR CONSTRAINT. THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES (45-50 KT) AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AT 40-50 KT
(10-MIN).

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE TOWARDS THE WEST,
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW TROPOSPHERE
LOCATED ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST COAST. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, A TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE TEMPORARY STRENGTHENING
OF THE GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTH-EAST AND THEN TO THE NORTH-EAST,
MAKING THE SYSTEM PASS CLOSE TO SAINT-BRANDON. THE GENERAL MOVEMENT
WILL NEVERTHELESS REMAIN DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH REMAINS WELL IN PLACE, UNDER A STEERING
FLOW THAT IS MOVING UPWARDS AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. THE FORECAST
TRACK, BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO, FAVOURS A PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE SISTER ISLANDS, BUT AT A STILL UNCERTAIN
DISTANCE (250 TO 350 KM FROM THE MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLANDS, BUT
WITH AN UNCERTAINTY OF MORE OR LESS 150-200 KM, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE TIME SCALE)

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL A BIT
SHEARED IN THE SHORT TERM (THE RATHER FAST MOTION OF THE LOW IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR ATTENUATING A BIT THE IMPACT). A GOOD OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, THEN THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM OF THE AXIS OF THE
RIDGE AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE,
SHOULD ALLOW AN INTENSIFICATION MORE FRANK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
NORTH OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS, POTENTIALLY UNTIL THE STAGE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE OR EVEN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THIS WEEKEND.
THE MODELINGS ARE STILL RELATIVELY DISPERSED ON THE FORECAST OF
INTENSITY, WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN.


WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM, THE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ON
MAURITIUS (SATURDAY MORNING) THEN ON REUNION (SATURDAY EVENING) WITH
AN INCREASE OF THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS
(CONDITIONS OF NEAR GALE FORCE TO GALE FORCE WINDS APPEARS AS THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THE SISTER ISLANDS WITH GUSTS WHICH CAN
APPROACH 100 KM/H)

IN THE LONGER TERM (END OF TIME), THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACT IS
INCREASING FOR THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO
SPECIFY A POINT OF IMPACT OR A TIMING AT THIS TIME.

THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR
ARE THEREFORE INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 170615
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/02/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 17/02/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (EMNATI) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 65.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/17 AT 18 UTC:
14.1 S / 63.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/18 AT 06 UTC:
14.4 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 150 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 170300
WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 220217041732
2022021700 13S EMNATI 002 01 260 06 SATL 050
T000 142S 0678E 045 R034 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 143S 0660E 065 R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 144S 0643E 080 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 150S 0629E 090 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 158S 0614E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 170S 0588E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 176S 0564E 095 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 180 NW QD
T120 183S 0535E 090 R064 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 67.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 67.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 14.3S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.4S 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.0S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.8S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.0S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.6S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.3S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 67.3E.
17FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171500Z AND 180300Z.
//
1322021418 145S 793E 20
1322021500 146S 773E 20
1322021506 144S 755E 20
1322021512 143S 738E 25
1322021518 142S 720E 30
1322021600 141S 708E 30
1322021606 140S 701E 30
1322021612 140S 692E 30
1322021618 141S 684E 35
1322021700 142S 678E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 67.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 67.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 14.3S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.4S 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.0S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.8S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.0S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.6S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.3S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 67.3E.
17FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171500Z AND 180300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 162100 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 001A AMD//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 001A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 67.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 67.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 14.3S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.4S 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.0S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.8S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.0S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.6S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.3S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 67.3E.
17FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170000Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: AMENDED EXTENDED INTENSITY FORECAST.
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 162100 AMD
WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 220217022923
2022021700 13S EMNATI 002 01 260 06 SATL 050
T000 142S 0678E 045 R034 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 143S 0660E 065 R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 144S 0643E 080 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 150S 0629E 090 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 158S 0614E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 170S 0588E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 176S 0564E 095 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 180 NW QD
T120 183S 0535E 090 R064 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 001A AMD
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WARNING NR 001A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 67.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 67.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 14.3S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.4S 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.0S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.8S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.0S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.6S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.3S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 67.3E.
17FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: AMENDED EXTENDED INTENSITY FORECAST.
1322021418 145S 793E 20
1322021500 146S 773E 20
1322021506 144S 755E 20
1322021512 143S 738E 25
1322021518 142S 720E 30
1322021600 141S 708E 30
1322021606 140S 701E 30
1322021612 140S 692E 30
1322021618 141S 684E 35
1322021700 142S 678E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 170014
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/5/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 17/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.0 S / 67.2 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 240 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1002 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/02/2022 12 UTC: 14.0 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 195 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 95

24H: 18/02/2022 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 95 NO: 165

36H: 18/02/2022 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 345 SO: 280 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SO: 120 NO: 150

48H: 19/02/2022 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SO: 305 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 140 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 85

60H: 19/02/2022 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 435 SO: 315 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 130 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 85

72H: 20/02/2022 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 380 SO: 360 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SO: 150 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/02/2022 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 405 SO: 360 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

120H: 22/02/2022 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 425 SO: 325 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES SIX HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST NETTEMENT
AMELIOREE, PARITANT D'UNE BAISSE DU CIAILLEMENT (20/25KT SELON LES
DERNIERES DONNEES DU CIMMS). LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES SE SITUE
MAINTENANT PLUS A L'INTERIEUR DE LA CONVECTION SOUS LE CDO, FAISANT
MONTER L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE A 2.5+, LA TEMPETE A DONC ETE
BAPSISEE.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT EVOLUER VERS
L'OUEST, EN BORDURE NORD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE
TROPOSPHERE SITUEE COTE SUD ET SUD-OUEST. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, UN
VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE PRODUIRE AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT
TEMPORAIRE DES GEOPOTENTIELS AU SUD-EST PUIS AU NORD-EST, FAISANT
PASSER LE SYSTEME PRES DE SAINT-BRANDON. LE MOUVEMENT GENERAL RESTERA
NEANMOINS PILOTE EN PREMIER LIEU PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI RESTE BIEN EN PLACE, SOUS UN FLUX DIRECTEUR
QUI REMONTE EN ALTITUDE AVEC L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. LA
TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE, BASEE SUR UN SCENARIO MEDIAN, FAVORISE AINSI UN
PASSAGE DU SYSTEME RELATIVEMENT LOIN AU LARGE DU NORD DES ILES
SOEURS, MAIS A UNE DISTANCE ENCORE INCERTAINE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
MOYENNEMENT FAVORABLES A TRES COURT TERME EN RAISON D'UN CISAILLEMENT
QUI RESTE MODERE DE SECTEUR EST-NORD-EST (LE DEPLACEMENT ASSEZ RAPIDE
DU MINIMUM DANS LE SENS DU CISAILLEMENT EN ATTENUANT UN PEU
L'INFLUENCE). UNE BONNE CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES, UN BON
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, PUIS LE RAPPROCHEMENT GRADUEL DU SYSTEME DE
L'AXE DE LA DORSALE EN FIN DE SEMAINE AVEC UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE, DEVRAIENT PERMETTRE UNE INTENSIFICATION D'ABORD LENTE
PUIS PLUS FRANCHE A L'APPROCHE DU NORD DES MASCAREIGNES,
POTENTIELLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL A PARTIR DE CE
WEEK-END. LES MODELISATIONS SONT ENCORE RELATIVEMENT DISPERSEES SUR
LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE, QUI EST DONC ENCORE INCERTAINE.

ETANT DONNEE L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE ET L'INTENSITE DE CE
SYSTEME, IL EST TROP TOT POUR QUANTIFIER UNE EVENTUELLE MENACE POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES. LES HABITANTS DE L'ILE MAURICE ET DE LA REUNION
SONT INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 170014
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/5/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 67.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 240 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/17 12 UTC: 14.0 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 195 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 95

24H: 2022/02/18 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 95 NW: 165

36H: 2022/02/18 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 345 SW: 280 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 120 NW: 150

48H: 2022/02/19 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SW: 305 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 85

60H: 2022/02/19 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 435 SW: 315 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 130 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 85

72H: 2022/02/20 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 380 SW: 360 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/21 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 405 SW: 360 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

120H: 2022/02/22 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 425 SW: 325 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY,
WITH A DECREASE IN THE WAXING AND WANING OF THE WIND (20/25KT
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CIMMS DATA). THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW MORE
INSIDE THE CONVECTION UNDER THE CDO, MAKING THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS RISE TO 2.5+, SO THE STORM HAS BEEN NAMED.

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE TOWARDS THE WEST,
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW TROPOSPHERE
LOCATED ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST COAST. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, A TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE TEMPORARY STRENGTHENING
OF THE GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTH-EAST AND THEN TO THE NORTH-EAST,
MAKING THE SYSTEM PASS CLOSE TO SAINT-BRANDON. THE GENERAL MOVEMENT
WILL NEVERTHELESS REMAIN DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH REMAINS WELL IN PLACE, UNDER A STEERING
FLOW THAT IS MOVING UPWARDS AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. THE FORECAST
TRAJECTORY, BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO, THUS FAVOURS A PASSAGE OF THE
SYSTEM RELATIVELY FAR OFF THE NORTH OF THE SISTER ISLANDS, BUT AT A
STILL UNCERTAIN DISTANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MODERATELY
FAVOURABLE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM DUE TO A SHEAR THAT REMAINS
MODERATE FROM THE EAST-NORTH-EAST (THE FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE
MINIMUM IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR ATTENUATING ITS INFLUENCE
SOMEWHAT). A GOOD CONVERGENCE OF LOW LAYERS, A GOOD OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, THEN THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM OF THE AXIS OF THE
RIDGE AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE,
SHOULD ALLOW AN INTENSIFICATION AT FIRST SLOW THEN MORE FRANK WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NORTH OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS, POTENTIALLY UNTIL
THE STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THIS WEEKEND. THE MODELINGS ARE
STILL RELATIVELY DISPERSED ON THE FORECAST OF INTENSITY, WHICH IS
STILL UNCERTAIN.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRAJECTORY AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM,
IT IS TOO EARLY TO QUANTIFY A POSSIBLE THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS. THE
INHABITANTS OF MAURITIUS AND REUNION ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH ATTENTION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 170004
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/02/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 17/02/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (EMNATI) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 67.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO
240 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND UP TO 500 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SECTOR.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/17 AT 12 UTC:
14.0 S / 65.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 50 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/18 AT 00 UTC:
14.0 S / 63.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 90 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 14.1S 68.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 68.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 14.3S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 14.3S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.7S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.5S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.9S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.5S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.0S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 67.9E.
16FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
485 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 162100
WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 220216195735
2022021618 13S THIRTEEN 001 01 265 08 SATL 040
T000 141S 0684E 035
T012 143S 0664E 045 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 143S 0645E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 147S 0632E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 155S 0618E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 169S 0590E 080 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 190 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 175S 0567E 095 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 170 NW QD
T120 180S 0538E 095 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 14.1S 68.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 68.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 14.3S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 14.3S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.7S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.5S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.9S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.5S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.0S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 67.9E.
16FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
485 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.
//
1322021418 145S 793E 20
1322021500 146S 773E 20
1322021506 144S 755E 20
1322021512 143S 738E 25
1322021518 142S 720E 30
1322021600 141S 708E 30
1322021606 140S 701E 30
1322021612 140S 692E 30
1322021618 141S 684E 35
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