Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SANDRA-21
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 092200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (SANDRA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (SANDRA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 14.4N 121.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 121.5W
---
REMARKS:
09NOV21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1124 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z
IS 12 FEET.REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (TERRY) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 092037
TCDEP4

Remnants of Sandra Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
100 PM PST Tue Nov 09 2021

The earlier burst of deep convection that popped up during the
diurnal convective maximum has since dissipated, and Sandra's
surface circulation has opened up into a trough of low pressure.
Therefore, this is the last NHC advisory. The initial intensity is
held at 25 kt based on a recent METOP-B scatterometer pass that
indicated a southwest to northeast oriented trough with a few 25 kt
winds well to the north and northeast. Strong, persistent southerly
shear and a dry, stable airmass should result in any attempt of
regeneration.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 14.2N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 092036
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Remnants of Sandra Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
100 PM PST Tue Nov 09 2021

...SANDRA DISSIPATES OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 122.2W
ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM PST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Sandra were located near
latitude 14.2 North, longitude 122.2 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west near 16 mph. A motion toward the west or
west-southwest is expected during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Continued weakening is expected over the next day or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 092035
TCMEP4

REMNANTS OF SANDRA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192021
2100 UTC TUE NOV 09 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 122.2W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 122.2W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 121.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 122.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 091600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (SANDRA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (SANDRA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 14.7N 120.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 120.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.1N 122.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
091600Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 120.9W.
09NOV21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1092 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E
(TERRY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 091437
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Sandra Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
700 AM PST Tue Nov 09 2021

Bursts of deep convection have been forming well to the northeast
of Sandra's exposed surface center since Monday evening, but
haven't been persistent, during the past 12 hours, to be considered
as organized convection. Accordingly, the system will likely be
classified as a remnant low this afternoon. Stiff, persistent
southerly shear and a stabilizing surrounding atmosphere should
cause further weakening, and the remnant low is forecast to open up
into a trough on Wednesday.

Sandra has continued to move a little south of due west, or 260/11
kt during the past 6 hours. A strengthening ridge to the north of
the cyclone should influence a westward to west-southwestward
through Wednesday. The official NHC forecast is in line with the
various consensus aids and lies close to the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 14.6N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 14.1N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 091437
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sandra Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
700 AM PST Tue Nov 09 2021

...SANDRA FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 120.7W
ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM PST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sandra
was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 120.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
motion toward the west or west-southwest is expected during the
next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast, and Sandra is expected to
degenerate into a remnant later today and dissipate by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 100 PM PST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 091436
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SANDRA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192021
1500 UTC TUE NOV 09 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 120.7W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 120.7W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 120.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.1N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 120.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 091000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (SANDRA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (SANDRA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 14.9N 119.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 119.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 14.5N 121.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
091000Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 119.8W.
09NOV21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1074 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E
(TERRY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 090835
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Sandra Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
100 AM PST Tue Nov 09 2021

Satellite classifications and recent scatterometer surface wind
data indicate that Sandra is barely hanging on a tropical cyclone.
The closest convection, which has been waning over the past few
hours, is located about 75 nmi east of the fully exposed low-level
circulation center. That distance barely meets the Dvorak criteria
for classifying Sandra as a tropical depression. The intensity has
been lowered to 25 kt based on 0235Z ASCAT-A scatterometer data
that revealed a few 25-kt surface wind vectors located about 50 nmi
north of the cyclone's center. Additional weakening is anticipated
due to the continued combination of strong southerly vertical wind
shear of 25-30 kt and intrusions of dry mid-level air. As a result,
Sandra is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low later today and
dissipate by Wednesday.

Sandra is now moving a little south of due west, or 260/12 kt. A
strong ridge to the north of the cyclone should keep Sandra moving
westward to west-southwestward through Wednesday. The new NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and lies close
to the middle of the various consensus track models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 14.8N 119.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 14.5N 121.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 090834
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sandra Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
100 AM PST Tue Nov 09 2021

...SANDRA BARELY A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 119.7W
ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM PST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sandra
was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 119.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
motion toward the west or west-southwest is expected during the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Sandra is
expected to degenerate into a remnant later today and dissipate by
Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 700 AM PST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 090833
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SANDRA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192021
0900 UTC TUE NOV 09 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 119.7W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 119.7W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 119.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.5N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 119.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 090411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 09.11.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 11.0N 108.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.11.2021 0 11.0N 108.5W 1007 26
1200UTC 09.11.2021 12 11.7N 110.2W 1008 25
0000UTC 10.11.2021 24 12.4N 112.7W 1008 24
1200UTC 10.11.2021 36 12.8N 114.8W 1009 22
0000UTC 11.11.2021 48 13.0N 117.0W 1008 25
1200UTC 11.11.2021 60 13.0N 119.3W 1009 22
0000UTC 12.11.2021 72 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SANDRA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 117.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.11.2021 0 15.0N 117.9W 1008 24
1200UTC 09.11.2021 12 14.8N 119.8W 1009 25
0000UTC 10.11.2021 24 14.4N 122.1W 1009 27
1200UTC 10.11.2021 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.6N 67.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.11.2021 0 34.6N 67.0W 994 46
1200UTC 09.11.2021 12 35.0N 63.8W 993 47
0000UTC 10.11.2021 24 35.1N 60.9W 986 57
1200UTC 10.11.2021 36 35.9N 57.6W 985 49
0000UTC 11.11.2021 48 37.0N 53.3W 978 52
1200UTC 11.11.2021 60 39.2N 46.0W 969 62
0000UTC 12.11.2021 72 45.6N 38.4W 955 66
1200UTC 12.11.2021 84 53.5N 37.5W 960 56
0000UTC 13.11.2021 96 54.1N 39.1W 952 54
1200UTC 13.11.2021 108 POST-TROPICAL


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 090411

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 090411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 09.11.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 11.0N 108.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.11.2021 11.0N 108.5W WEAK
12UTC 09.11.2021 11.7N 110.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.11.2021 12.4N 112.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.11.2021 12.8N 114.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.11.2021 13.0N 117.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.11.2021 13.0N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.11.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SANDRA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 117.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.11.2021 15.0N 117.9W WEAK
12UTC 09.11.2021 14.8N 119.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.11.2021 14.4N 122.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.11.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.6N 67.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.11.2021 34.6N 67.0W MODERATE
12UTC 09.11.2021 35.0N 63.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.11.2021 35.1N 60.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.11.2021 35.9N 57.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.11.2021 37.0N 53.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.11.2021 39.2N 46.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.11.2021 45.6N 38.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 12.11.2021 53.5N 37.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.11.2021 54.1N 39.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.11.2021 POST-TROPICAL


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 090411

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 090400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (SANDRA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (SANDRA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 15.3N 118.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 118.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 15.2N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.7N 122.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
090400Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 119.0W.
09NOV21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1046 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091000Z, 091600Z AND 092200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (TERRY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 090240
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Sandra Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
700 PM PST Mon Nov 08 2021

Sandra's satellite presentation continues to degrade. Visible
imagery shows that the low-level center has been exposed for most
of the day, with limited deep convection located north and east of
the center. Latest analyses indicate that the depression is
embedded in an environment characterized by significant
southwesterly vertical wind shear, and Sandra is barely hanging on
as a tropical cyclone. The current intensity for this advisory has
been maintained at 30 kt, primarily based on earlier ASCAT data,
which indicated these winds were limited to the northeast and east
semicircles.

Sandra has been moving generally toward the west today, but there
have been some short-term wobbles in the track as occasional pulses
of deep convection helped to pull the center slightly northward. The
smoothed initial motion estimate for this advisory is 270/13 kt.
The updated track forecast anticipates that surface high pressure
building north of the system will keep it on general westward
track, with a slight turn toward the west-southwest on Tuesday.
This is in line with a tightly clustered guidance suite, and very
close to the TVCN consensus.

Guidance indicates that southwesterly vertical wind shear on the
order of 20-30 kt will persist, as the decaying cyclone remains
between an upper-level anticyclone to the east and a trough to the
northwest. This environment is not conducive for organized deep
convection to persist over the center, and Sandra is forecast to
soon degenerate into a remnant low. The updated intensity forecast
indicates this will occur early Tuesday, with dissipation following
soon thereafter, closely following SHIPS guidance and the ECMWF
global model solution.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 15.3N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 15.2N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/0000Z 14.7N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 090238
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sandra Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
700 PM PST Mon Nov 08 2021

...SANDRA FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 119.0W
ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM PST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sandra
was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 119.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next day or two, and Sandra is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday, and then
dissipate by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 100 AM PST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 090236
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SANDRA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192021
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0300 UTC TUE NOV 09 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 119.0W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 119.0W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 118.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.2N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.7N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 119.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 082200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (SANDRA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (SANDRA) WARNING NR 006
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 19E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 15.2N 117.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 117.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 15.5N 118.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.3N 120.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.9N 123.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
082200Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 117.5W.
08NOV21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1050 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090400Z, 091000Z, 091600Z AND 092200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (TERRY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 082053
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Sandra Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
100 PM PST Mon Nov 08 2021

Sandra's recently exposed and increasingly elongated low-level
center lies to the west and southwest of an area of pulsing deep
convection, due to persistent southwesterly vertical wind shear. A
recent ASCAT pass indicated that winds were below tropical-storm-
force, and the initial intensity for this advisory is estimated to
be 30 kt, despite subjective Dvorak intensity estimates of 2.5/35 kt
from TAFB/SAB.

Guidance indicates that southwesterly shear near 20 kt will
persist, potentially increasing in magnitude tomorrow, as the
cyclone remains between an upper-level anticyclone to the east and a
trough to the northwest. This environment is not conducive for a
tropical cyclone's survival, and Sandra is forecast to degenerate
into a remnant low on Tuesday before dissipating on Wednesday, if
not sooner. The updated intensity forecast is in close agreement
with HCCA guidance, as well as the GFS and ECMWF global model
solutions.

The initial motion estimate for this advisory is 310/08 kt, which
represents a bit of a northward jog in the cyclone's track. This
motion is expected to be temporary as surface high pressure is
forecast to build northwest of Sandra over the next day or two.
This will usher the decaying, increasingly shallow low toward the
west as it becomes steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The
updated track forecast follows a similar trajectory as the previous,
after accounting for the recent jog toward the north, and follows a
tightly clustered guidance suite.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 15.5N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 15.5N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 15.3N 120.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/0600Z 14.9N 123.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 082039
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sandra Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
100 PM PST Mon Nov 08 2021

...WEAKENING SANDRA FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY MIDWEEK...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 117.5W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM PST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sandra
was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 117.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).
A turn toward the west, with an increase in forward speed, is
forecast later today and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.
Sandra is expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday, and
dissipate on Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 700 PM PST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 082038
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SANDRA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192021
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2100 UTC MON NOV 08 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 117.5W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 117.5W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 117.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.5N 118.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 15.3N 120.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.9N 123.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 117.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 081600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19E (SANDRA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19E (SANDRA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 116.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 116.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.0N 117.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 15.1N 119.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.7N 122.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.3N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
081600Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 117.0W.
08NOV21. TROPICAL STORM 19E (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1092
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082200Z, 090400Z, 091000Z AND 091600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (TERRY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 081434
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Sandra Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
700 AM PST Mon Nov 08 2021

Conventional satellite imagery and a 1206 UTC SSMIS microwave
overpass indicate that Sandra's less-defined surface circulation
remains sheared to the southwest of the warming cloud top
convective mass. The Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB are unchanged from the previous 6 hr estimates, and
the initial intensity is held at 35 kt.

UW-CIMSS shear analysis and the statistical SHIPS models (ECMWF and
GFS) indicate that the 15-20 kt of southwesterly shear will persist
and increase in magnitude by Tuesday evening while the surrounding
thermodynamic environment gradually becomes more stable. Given
these current and predicted inhibiting factors, Sandra is forecast
to become a depression by this evening, and degenerate into a
remnant low by Tuesday evening. The NHC intensity forecast is an
update of the previous one, and is based on the the NOAA HFIP
corrected consensus model and agrees with the GFS and ECMWF global
model solutions.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/6
kt. A subtropical ridge located to the north of Sandra should
steer the cyclone toward the west-northwest through this evening.
Through the remainder of the forecast, the global models show the
aforementioned low-to mid-level ridge building slightly toward the
northwest of Sandra which should cause the cyclone to turn toward
the west by early Tuesday. The official track forecast follows
suit and is once again adjusted a bit toward the left of the
previous forecast and is nudged closer to the TCVE simple
multi-model forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 14.6N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 15.0N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 15.1N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 14.7N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/1200Z 14.3N 125.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 081433
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sandra Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
700 AM PST Mon Nov 08 2021

...SANDRA FORECAST TO BECOME A DEPRESSION BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 116.8W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM PST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sandra was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 116.8 West. Sandra is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn
toward the west is forecast on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.
Sandra is expected to become a depression by tonight, degenerate
into a remnant low on Tuesday, and dissipate by Wednesday evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 100 PM PST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 081433
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM SANDRA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192021
1500 UTC MON NOV 08 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 116.8W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 116.8W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 116.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.0N 117.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.1N 119.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.7N 122.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.3N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 116.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 081000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19E (SANDRA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19E (SANDRA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 14.0N 116.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 116.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.5N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.9N 119.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 14.8N 121.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.6N 123.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
081000Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 116.5W.
08NOV21. TROPICAL STORM 19E (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1124
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081600Z, 082200Z, 090400Z AND 091000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18E (TERRY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 080838
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Sandra Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
100 AM PST Mon Nov 08 2021

Sandra's convective pattern is characteristic of a sheared tropical
cyclone, with the bulk of the convection now displaced into the
northeastern quadrant of the cyclone owing to southwesterly vertical
wind shear of around 20 kt. A 0257Z ASCAT-A pass revealed a tight,
well-defined low-level circulation center, but with peak surface
winds of only 28 kt in the northeastern quadrant. However, the
intensity is being maintained at 35 kt since deep convection with
cloud tops to -80C has re-developed in the vicinity of those ASCAT
winds, possibly resulting in a local enhancement in those wind
speeds.

Conventional satellite fixes and the aforementioned ASCAT wind data
indicate that Sandra's forward speed has slowed considerably, and
the initial motion estimate is now 285/06 kt. The cyclone is
forecast to remain along the southern periphery of a deep-layer
subtropical ridge for the next few days, resulting in a slow
west-northwestward motion today, followed by a westward turn on
Tuesday with that motion continuing into Wednesday. The new NHC
forecast track is a little to the left or south of the previous
advisory track, and lies down the middle of the NHC guidance
envelope, which a tad south of the consensus models.

Moderate to strong southwesterly wind shear is expected to continue
affecting Sandra for the next few days, while mid-level moisture
and sea-surface temperatures gradually decrease. The combination of
these unfavorable environmental conditions are expected to result in
a gradual weakening of the cyclone, with Sandra now forecast to
become a tropical depression later today and degenerate into a
remnant low pressure system by late Tuesday. The new official
intensity forecast is essentially the same as the previous advisory,
and closely follows a blend of HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus
models and the GFS and ECMWF global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 14.1N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 14.5N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 14.9N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 14.8N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/0600Z 14.6N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 080834
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sandra Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
100 AM PST Mon Nov 08 2021

...SANDRA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 116.3W
ABOUT 740 MI...1185 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM PST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sandra was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 116.3 West. Sandra is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn
toward the west is forecast on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.
Sandra is expected to become a depression later today, degenerate
into a remnant low by early Tuesday, and dissipate by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 700 AM PST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 080834
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM SANDRA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192021
0900 UTC MON NOV 08 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 116.3W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 116.3W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 116.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.5N 117.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.9N 119.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.8N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.6N 123.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 116.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 080234
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Sandra Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
700 PM PST Sun Nov 07 2021

Sandra was briefly devoid of convective activity earlier today, but
its organization has somewhat improved during the past several
hours. Bursts of deep convection have been noted in the northeastern
quadrant of the tropical cyclone. The well-defined low-level center
became exposed earlier today due to 20 kt of southwesterly
deep-layer shear over Sandra, but the center has recently moved
closer to the edge of a small convective cloud mass. The objective
and subjective satellite estimates range from 30-35 kt, and the
initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. Hopefully, a
scatterometer pass samples the storm later tonight to help assess
its intensity and structure.

A ridge to the north and east of Sandra is steering the cyclone
west-northwestward, and its estimated motion is 285/10 kt. Sandra is
expected to gradually turn westward over the next couple of days, as
the vertically shallow circulation becomes increasingly steered by
the low-level flow. Little change is noted in the latest track
guidance, and the official NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous one, with just slight southward adjustments based on the
consensus aids. Moderate (15-20 kt) southwesterly shear is forecast
to persist over Sandra for the next 12-24 h, then strengthen
thereafter. Given that Sandra has already struggled to maintain
organized convection, the system is likely to be short-lived. The
cyclone is expected to weaken on Monday as the increasing shear
strips away its remaining convection. Sandra should degenerate to a
post-tropical remnant low early Tuesday and then open up into a
trough and dissipate by Wednesday. The latest NHC intensity forecast
remains in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 14.2N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 14.7N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 15.2N 118.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 15.4N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/0000Z 15.1N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 080233
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sandra Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
700 PM PST Sun Nov 07 2021

...SHEARED SANDRA LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 116.0W
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM PST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sandra was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 116.0 West. Sandra is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Monday. A turn
toward the west is forecast on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.
Sandra is expected to become a remnant low early Tuesday and
dissipate by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center in the northeastern quadrant.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 100 AM PST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 080233
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM SANDRA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192021
0300 UTC MON NOV 08 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 116.0W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 116.0W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 115.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.7N 117.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.2N 118.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.4N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.1N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 116.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 072037
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Sandra Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
100 PM PST Sun Nov 07 2021

This afternoon, deep-convective activity has decreased in coverage
and intensity, shearing off to the east and revealing a well-defined
low-level circulation. Even though the convection has waned, an
earlier 1549 UTC ASCAT-A pass revealed a fairly large region of
30-35 kt winds primarily to the east of the circulation. Based
primarily on the scatterometer data, TD 19-E was upgraded to
35-kt Tropical Storm Sandra at 1800 UTC and that will be the
intensity for this advisory. It should be noted that the satellite
presentation was better organized this morning, when both SAB and
TAFB provided CI 2.5/35 kt estimates, and it is likely this system
was already tropical storm earlier today.

The exposed low-level circulation has been moving left of the
previous forecast track this afternoon, with the current estimated
motion at 285/10 kt. The track guidance is insistent that a more
poleward motion will resume soon, but its possible the storm's
direction of motion is dependent on additional down-shear convective
bursts helping to tug the center more poleward. As the system
becomes more vertically shallow, the west-northwest motion should
bend more westward and then west-southwestward as the circulation
gradually decays. The track guidance this cycle is further to the
left in the short-term, mainly based on the initial motion, but
corrects to near the same place by the end of the forecast period.
The latest NHC track forecast has also been shifted further south
early on, but ends up near the previous one by 60 hours, close to
the tightly clustered consensus aids.

Assuming that convection will redevelop near or east of the center,
possibly during the diurnal convective maximum tonight, Sandra is
expected to maintain its intensity for the next 12-24 hours.
Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear should help to import
drier mid-level air that should finish off any additional
convection. Forecast simulated IR imagery from the GFS and ECMWF
suggests Sandra becoming devoid of convection by 48-60 h, and the
latest NHC forecast still shows the cyclone becoming a post-tropical
remnant low by this time frame. The NHC intensity forecast is in
decent agreement with the intensity guidance and is quite similar to
the latest SHIPS/LGEM, though remains lower than the HWRF/HMON runs.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 14.0N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 14.5N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 15.3N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 15.7N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 15.5N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 10/0600Z 15.0N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 072036
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sandra Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
100 PM PST Sun Nov 07 2021

...SATELLITE WIND DATA FINDS TROPICAL STORM SANDRA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 115.2W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM PST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sandra was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 115.2 West. Sandra is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the west over
the next several days.

Satellite derived wind data indicates that maximum sustained winds
are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is forecast during the next day or so, followed by gradual
weakening. Sandra is expected to become a remnant low on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 700 PM PST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 072036
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM SANDRA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192021
2100 UTC SUN NOV 07 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 115.2W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 0 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 115.2W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 114.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 14.5N 116.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.3N 117.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.7N 119.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 15.5N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.0N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 115.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 071459
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
800 AM MST Sun Nov 07 2021

The broad area of low pressure we have been monitoring for the last
several days well south of the Baja California Peninsula has
improved in organization this morning. Overnight scatterometer
data suggested that a better defined center was trying to develop
close to the deep convection. Microwave data from an 0857 UTC AMSR2
pass also indicated low-level cloud curvature on the 37-GHz
channel, suggesting a well-defined center had formed. Indeed, first
light 1-min visible imagery from a GOES-17 mesoscale domain now
shows a tight low-level swirl located just to the west of a new
burst of deep convection. All these data suggest the system's
circulation is now well-defined. Therefore, advisories are being
initiated on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. Subjective Dvorak
estimates from both TAFB and SAB are both at CI 2.5/35 kt,
suggesting the depression may already be close to tropical storm
intensity.

The initial motion of the depression is estimated to be 290/7 kt,
though uncertainty exists since the center only recently became
well-defined. The system currently lies along the southwestern
periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. This synoptic
pattern should allow the depression to maintain a west-northwest
motion over the next 12-24 hours while it remains vertically coupled
to the deep-convection. Afterwards, the remaining deep convection
is expected to dissipate and the leftover shallow vortex is
expected to be increasingly steered around a low-level ridge
offshore of the west coast of Mexico. This pattern should cause the
cyclone to turn westward and then west-southwestward over the
remainder of its lifespan. The track guidance is in fairly good
agreement on this general solution, and the NHC official track lies
close to the consensus aids TVCN and HCCA.

As mentioned above, the subjective satellite estimates already
suggest that this system could be near tropical storm intensity and
the peak wind from the overnight scatterometer data was 31 kt.
While the system is currently battling about 20-25 kt of
south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, this magnitude is not
expected to change much during the next 12-24 hours. Thus, there is
an opportunity for some slight intensification, which is reflected
in the NHC intensity forecast which takes the system up to a
35-kt tropical storm by tonight. However, increasing shear and a
drying mid-level environment should result in weakening beginning by
36 hours with the storm forecast to become a remnant low by
Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast is a bit above the consensus
aids, but a bit below the latest HWRF/HMON runs which suggests a
slightly higher 40-45 kt peak intensity.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 13.7N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 14.3N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 15.1N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 15.6N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 15.6N 119.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 10/0000Z 15.3N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 071457
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
800 AM MST Sun Nov 07 2021

...ANOTHER NOVEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC...
...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 113.7W
ABOUT 680 MI...1100 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 113.7
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8
mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with a
gradual turn to the west over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight intensification is forecast over the next day or so, and
the depression could become a tropical storm by tonight. Weakening
is anticipated thereafter and the system is expected to degenerate
into a remnant low by the middle of the week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 071456
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192021
1500 UTC SUN NOV 07 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 113.7W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 113.7W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 113.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.3N 114.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.1N 115.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.6N 117.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.6N 119.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.3N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 113.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>