Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for TERRY-21
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 102036
TCDEP3

Remnants Of Terry Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
100 PM PST Wed Nov 10 2021

Satellite-derived wind data from a combination of Metop-A and B
scatterometer overpasses today indicate that the surface circulation
of Terry has opened up into a trough of low pressure. Therefore,
this is the last NHC advisory on this system. The initial
intensity is being held at 25 kt based on the scatterometer data.
Increasing vertical wind shear and the system's close proximity to
the Intertropical Convergence Zone should prevent the disturbance
from regenerating.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 11.7N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF TERRY
12H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 102035
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Terry Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
100 PM PST Wed Nov 10 2021

...TERRY DISSIPATES OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 118.3W
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM PST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Terry were located near
latitude 11.7 North, longitude 118.3 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The winds associated with the remnants of Terry should gradually
subside through the end of the week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 102034
TCMEP3

REMNANTS OF TERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
2100 UTC WED NOV 10 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 118.3W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 118.3W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 117.6W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 118.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 101435
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
700 AM PST Wed Nov 10 2021

Conventional satellite imagery shows that Terry's cloud pattern has
changed little overnight, and the depression remains a poorly
organized tropical cyclone. A fortuitous 1142 UTC SSMIS microwave
pass consisted of fragmented curved bands south and well to the west
of a southwest to northeast elongated surface center. The initial
intensity is held at 25 kt for this advisory.

Dry, stable air intrusion and slightly cooler oceanic sea surface
temperatures should inhibit any further strengthening from
occurring through the forecast period. The large-scale models and
the statistical SHIPS intensity guidance are in agreement with Terry
degenerating into a remnant low by Friday, if not sooner, and
dissipating over the weekend. The official intensity forecast is
basically an update of the previous one, following a compromise of
the aforementioned guidance and the IVCN intensity consensus aid.

Terry's initial motion is still estimated to be 270/13 kt. There is
no change to the track forecast reasoning. Terry is expected to
continue on a westward heading during the next few days within the
low- to mid-level steering flow produced by a subtropical ridge to
the north of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast, once again,
follows the better performing HCCA and TVCE multi-model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 11.7N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 11.6N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 11.4N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 11.2N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 10.9N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0000Z 10.6N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 101433
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Terry Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
700 AM PST Wed Nov 10 2021

...POORLY ORGANIZED TERRY MOVING WESTWARD...
...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 116.9W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM PST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Terry
was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 116.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Terry could degenerate into a remnant low or trough during
that time.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 100 PM PST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 101433
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
1500 UTC WED NOV 10 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 116.9W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 116.9W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 116.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 11.6N 119.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 11.4N 121.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 11.2N 124.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 10.9N 127.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 10.6N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 116.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 100837
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
100 AM PST Wed Nov 10 2021

After undergoing a brief convective bursting pattern, thunderstorm
activity in the western semicircle of the Terry's circulation
appears to have morphed into what appears to be a small squall line
that is propagating westward away from the center. Recent
scatterometer data indicated a small patch of 22-kt winds north of
the center, so the intensity is being maintained at 25 kt, keeping
Terry as a marginal tropical depression. The aforementioned ASCAT
data also indicated that Terry's inner-core wind field was elongated
east-to-west and that the low-level center was less defined compared
to 12 hours ago.

A low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern North Pacific is steering
Terry westward, or 270/13 kt. The small cyclone is forecast to move
generally westward over the next few days with little change to
the general easterly steering flow expected. The new official track
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and lies along
the southern edge of the tightly packed track guidance envelope.

Entrainment of dry mid-level air is forecast to continue for the
next couple of days while the cyclone moves over slightly cooler
water, with that negative combination of environmental parameters
expected to prevent any significant convective organization and
resultant strengthening from occurring. In fact, the latest model
guidance suggests that Terry could devolve into a remnant low or
open up into an inverted trough at any time during the next 72
hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory, following a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global models,
which is a little below the intensity consensus models IVCN and
NOAA-HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 11.8N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 11.8N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 11.7N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 11.4N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 11.2N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1800Z 10.9N 127.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 100832
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Terry Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
100 AM PST Wed Nov 10 2021

...TERRY TRUDGING ALONG WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 115.6W
ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM PST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Terry
was located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 115.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Terry could degenerate into a remnant low or trough during
that time.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 700 AM PST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 100832
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
0900 UTC WED NOV 10 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 115.6W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 115.6W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 114.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 11.8N 117.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 11.7N 120.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 11.4N 122.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 11.2N 125.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 10.9N 127.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 115.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 100236
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
800 PM MST Tue Nov 09 2021

Terry is exhibiting a bursting convective pattern in geostationary
satellite imagery. Recently, a new burst with infrared cloud tops
colder than -70 deg C has emerged in the western semicircle.
However, AMSR2 microwave data showed that the low-level circulation
is still broad and somewhat elongated. Earlier scatterometer data
indicated the system was a marginal tropical cyclone, with the
strongest winds of around 20 kt located well northeast of the center
and outside of the active convection. The convective organization
has not improved, and the initial intensity is set at 25 kt for this
advisory. Hopefully, new scatterometer data later tonight helps
assess Terry's intensity and status as a tropical cyclone.

A low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern North Pacific is steering
the depression westward, or 280/12 kt. Terry is forecast to move
generally westward for the next several days with little change to
the overall steering pattern expected. The official NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, with only minor
adjustments that move Terry slightly faster in agreement with the
latest track consensus aids.

Despite moving over warm (27 deg C) SSTs within a low deep-layer
shear environment, Terry has struggled to sustain organized
convection. This is most likely due to intrusions of dry air that
have periodically disrupted Terry's organization. Most of the global
models show Terry remaining a depression and eventually opening up
into a trough later this week. A notable exception is the GFS, which
indicates some potential for restrengthening by Thursday as the
cyclone moves over slightly warmer waters. The official NHC
intensity forecast keeps Terry a depression through midweek, with
the system degenerating into a remnant low early Friday and a trough
shortly thereafter. This forecast lies on the lower end of the
intensity guidance, and slightly below the IVCN consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 11.9N 114.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 12.0N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 11.9N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 11.6N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 11.4N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 11.1N 126.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 100235
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Terry Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
800 PM MST Tue Nov 09 2021

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 114.1W
ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Terry
was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 114.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Terry could degenerate to a remnant low or trough during
that time.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 100235
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
0300 UTC WED NOV 10 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 114.1W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 114.1W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 113.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 12.0N 116.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 11.9N 118.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 11.6N 121.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 11.4N 123.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 11.1N 126.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 114.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 092039
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
200 PM MST Tue Nov 09 2021

Conventional satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data show
that Terry barely classifies as a tropical cyclone. The ASCAT data
indicate that the center has become less defined over the past 24
hours. The circulation is still broadly closed, but it is
elongated with a northeast to southwest orientation. In addition,
deep convection has continued to pulse around the western portion
of the broad circulation, but there has not been much organization
to the convection over the past 12 to 24 hours. The scatterometer
data also revealed peak winds of around 20 kt, but the initial
intensity is only reduced to 25 kt for now, but that could be
generous.

Intrusions of drier mid-level air and some mid-level shear
continue to plague the system. As the cyclone moves westward, the
overall environment is expected to become more stable, which should
result in further weakening. Terry could degenerate into a trough
of low pressure at any time over the next few days, but if it does
not it is still expected to become a post-tropical remnant low
within 2-3 days.

Terry's motion is still 280/12 kt. There is again no change to the
track forecast reasoning. The cyclone or its remnants should
continue to head westward over the next few days to the south of a
strong subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific waters. The
updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
again close to the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 11.6N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 11.7N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 11.8N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 11.6N 119.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 11.3N 122.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0600Z 10.9N 124.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 092038
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Terry Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
200 PM MST Tue Nov 09 2021

...TERRY WEAKENS BUT HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 113.0W
ABOUT 805 MI...1300 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Terry
was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 113.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days and Terry
could become a remnant low or a trough during that time.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 092038
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
2100 UTC TUE NOV 09 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 113.0W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 113.0W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 112.4W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 11.7N 114.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 11.8N 117.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 11.6N 119.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 11.3N 122.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 10.9N 124.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 113.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 091607

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 09.11.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SANDRA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 120.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.11.2021 0 14.7N 120.0W 1009 24
0000UTC 10.11.2021 12 14.1N 122.4W 1009 27
1200UTC 10.11.2021 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 110.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.11.2021 0 11.7N 110.7W 1009 23
0000UTC 10.11.2021 12 12.3N 113.0W 1009 22
1200UTC 10.11.2021 24 12.6N 115.9W 1009 22
0000UTC 11.11.2021 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.8N 63.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.11.2021 0 34.8N 63.5W 994 45
0000UTC 10.11.2021 12 35.0N 60.7W 983 56
1200UTC 10.11.2021 24 35.6N 57.4W 984 47
0000UTC 11.11.2021 36 36.9N 53.2W 979 48
1200UTC 11.11.2021 48 38.8N 46.5W 969 60
0000UTC 12.11.2021 60 43.8N 38.4W 959 68
1200UTC 12.11.2021 72 53.1N 35.6W 959 57
0000UTC 13.11.2021 84 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 34.9N 63.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.11.2021 132 34.9N 63.2W 1011 33
1200UTC 15.11.2021 144 37.9N 56.8W 1014 45


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091607

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 091607

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.11.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SANDRA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 120.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.11.2021 14.7N 120.0W WEAK
00UTC 10.11.2021 14.1N 122.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.11.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 110.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.11.2021 11.7N 110.7W WEAK
00UTC 10.11.2021 12.3N 113.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.11.2021 12.6N 115.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.11.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.8N 63.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.11.2021 34.8N 63.5W MODERATE
00UTC 10.11.2021 35.0N 60.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.11.2021 35.6N 57.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.11.2021 36.9N 53.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.11.2021 38.8N 46.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.11.2021 43.8N 38.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.11.2021 53.1N 35.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.11.2021 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 34.9N 63.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.11.2021 34.9N 63.2W WEAK
12UTC 15.11.2021 37.9N 56.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091607

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 091437
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
800 AM MST Tue Nov 09 2021

Convective bursts continue to pulse over the western portion of
Terry's circulation. An 0846 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass showed
that the overall convective organization is poor and that the
low-level circulation appears broad. Although Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates still support tropical storm intensity,
scatterometer data over the past 24 hours have revealed winds
around 25 kt. Given the typically undersampling of the ASCAT
instrument the intensity is held at 30 kt, but this could be
generous.

Although the shear that has been plaguing Terry could decrease over
the next day or so, intrusions of dry mid-level air are likely to
continue to prevent strengthening. Additionally, as the storm
moves westward later this week the overall environment is forecast
to become more stable, and this is expected to result in Terry
weakening and degenerating into a remnant low or trough of low
pressure by day 4. That is supported by the ECMWF and UKMET models,
however the GFS continues to show the possibility of
re-strengthening. Based on current trends, the official forecast
continues to place more weight on the ECMWF/UKMET solutions.

Terry continues to move a little north of due west or 280/12 kt.
The cyclone should maintain a general westward heading over the
next few days as it moves along the southern periphery of a strong
subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific. Although the dynamical
models agree on the overall track scenario, there is some along-
track spread, therefore the official forecast remains close to the
various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 11.1N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 11.3N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 11.5N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 11.4N 118.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 11.2N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 10.8N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z 10.5N 126.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 091436
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Terry Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
800 AM MST Tue Nov 09 2021

...TERRY CONTINUES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 111.7W
ABOUT 825 MI...1325 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Terry
was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 111.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so.
Weakening is forecast on Thursday and Friday, and Terry could
become a remnant low or a trough during that time.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 091436
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
1500 UTC TUE NOV 09 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 111.7W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 111.7W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 111.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 11.3N 113.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 11.5N 115.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 11.4N 118.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 11.2N 120.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 10.8N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 10.5N 126.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 111.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 090833
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
200 AM MST Tue Nov 09 2021

Terry has been undergoing a convective bursting pattern since the
previous advisory, with thunderstorms containing cloud tops of -75C
to -80C persisting near and west of the well-defined low-level
circulation center. ASCAT-B scatterometer data around 0534Z depicted
the low-level circulation quite well and there were some 26-kt wind
vectors on the edge of the path swath, which were just east of the
coldest convective cloud tops. Assuming that some stronger wind
speeds existed west of those scatterometer-derived winds, the
initial intensity has been maintained at 30 kt for this advisory. It
should be noted that this intensity estimate is lower than the 45-kt
and 35-kt subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates provided
by TAFB and SAB, respectively.

Terry's motion remains a little north of due west, or 280/12 kt. A
general westward motion is expected for the next several days as
Terry moves along the southern periphery of a strong subtropical
ridge that extends westward across most of the eastern North Pacific
basin. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly clustered around the
previous forecast track, so only minor tweaks were made, with the
new official forecast track lying down the middle of the track model
guidance envelope.

While mid-level dry air intrusions had been inhibiting convective
development during the previous 18 h or so, the more recent cluster
of vigorous thunderstorms persisting near Terry's center might be a
signal that the cyclone is mixing out at least some of the dry air
from the inner-core region. Moreover, the latest GFS- and
ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity guidance now indicates that moderate
mid-level wind shear that had been hindering development has abated
and is expected to remain near zero while the deep-layer shear is
forecast to remain low at less than 10 kt for the next couple of
days. This change in the environmental wind flow affecting the
cyclone would argue for at least some modest strengthening to occur.
For now, the new NHC intensity forecast has simply pulled back the
rate of weakening through the next 48 hours, keeping Terry as a
30-kt depression during that time. However, if the aforementioned
favorable environmental conditions persist in subsequent models
runs, then a change to a strengthening trend would be warranted, as
indicated by the bulk of the latest intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 11.1N 110.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 11.5N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 11.7N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 11.8N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 11.7N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 11.5N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 11.0N 124.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 090833
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Terry Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
200 AM MST Tue Nov 09 2021

...TERRY MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 110.4W
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Terry
was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 110.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days. Weakening is forecast by late Thursday and Friday, and Terry
could become a remnant low or a trough during that time.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 090832
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
0900 UTC TUE NOV 09 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 110.4W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 110.4W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 109.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 11.5N 112.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 11.7N 114.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 11.8N 117.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 11.7N 119.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 11.5N 122.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 11.0N 124.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 110.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 090234
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Terry Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
800 PM MST Mon Nov 08 2021

...TERRY HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 109.3W
ABOUT 845 MI...1355 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Terry
was located near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 109.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and a
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, and
Terry could become a remnant low or a trough during that time.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 090234
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
0300 UTC TUE NOV 09 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 109.3W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 109.3W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 108.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 11.1N 111.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 11.4N 113.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 11.7N 116.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 11.6N 118.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 11.4N 121.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 11.2N 123.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.7N 109.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 090233
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
800 PM MST Mon Nov 08 2021

Although Terry is producing more deep convection this evening,
recent microwave images show that the system still has a weak and
ragged appearance with the low-level center located near the eastern
edge of the main area of deep convection. The microwave images
also suggest that the circulation is less defined and stretching out
from east to west. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, based on
the earlier ASCAT data, which is a little below the latest Dvorak
estimates. Hopefully the next round of ASCAT data will provide more
information on Terry's intensity and structure.

There remains no change to the track forecast reasoning. Terry is
currently moving westward, or 280 degrees, at 12 kt. A west to
west-northwest motion is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours,
followed by a due westward motion after that as Terry moves within
the flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge. The models are in
good agreement, and the NHC track forecast remains near the middle
of the guidance envelope.

Terry has been struggling due to mid-level wind shear and intrusions
of dry air. Since these environmental conditions are likely to
persist, gradual weakening still seems likely. The most difficult
question is how long Terry will hang on as a tropical depression.
Some of the models show Terry opening into a trough within a couple
of days while others strengthen the system. Given the divergence in
the model solutions, the NHC intensity forecast has been held steady
and shows Terry dissipating by day 4. This forecast remains on the
low side of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 10.7N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 11.1N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 11.4N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 11.7N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 11.6N 118.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 11.4N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 11.2N 123.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 082030
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
200 PM MST Mon Nov 08 2021

Although Terry's overall convective organization remains poor, a
1526 UTC ASCAT-A overpass indicated that the circulation was better
defined than last evening. The scatterometer data revealed peak
winds of 25-26 kt, and given the typical undersampling from that
instrument the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory.
Mid-level shear and the ingestion of a drier and stable air mass
have continued to take a toll on the cyclone. These conditions are
not expected to abate during the next couple of days, and some
additional weakening is possible during that time. Although some of
the guidance suggests that Terry could reach a more favorable
environment later in the period, the ECMWF and UKMET models
continue to weaken the system and the NHC forecast again shows the
system degenerating into a remnant low by 72 hours and dissipate by
day 4.

Terry continues to move west-northwestward or 285/13 kt. As stated
in the past several advisories, the steering currents ahead of
Terry remain well established and there is no change to the
forecast track reasoning. The cyclone will continue to move
west-northwestward to westward to the south of a strong deep-layer
over western Mexico. The latest suite of dynamical model tracks is
slightly north of and slower than the previous model envelope. As
a result, the official NHC track forecast has been adjusted
accordingly, and is a blend of the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA)
and the simple consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 10.5N 108.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 11.0N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 11.4N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 11.6N 114.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 11.7N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 11.6N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 11.5N 122.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 082030
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Terry Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
200 PM MST Mon Nov 08 2021

...TERRY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.5N 108.0W
ABOUT 865 MI...1395 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Terry
was located near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 108.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph
(24 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected
for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Terry
could become a remnant low during that time.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 082030
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
2100 UTC MON NOV 08 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 108.0W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 108.0W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 107.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 11.0N 109.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 11.4N 112.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 11.6N 114.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 11.7N 117.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 11.6N 120.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 11.5N 122.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 108.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 081442 CCA
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Terry Advisory Number 17...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
800 AM MST Mon Nov 08 2021

Added additional period in headline

...DISORGANIZED TERRY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 106.6W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Terry
was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 106.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph
(24 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected
for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few
days, and Terry could dissipate or become a remnant low during that
time.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 081436
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
800 AM MST Mon Nov 08 2021

Terry has become less organized since yesterday and it appears
that this is the from a combination of mid-level shear and the
entrainment of some drier and more stable air from the north.
Early light-visible satellite imagery reveals a couple of linear
lines of deep convection, but the low cloud motion suggests that
the circulation may be less defined. The initial intensity has
been lowered to 30 kt, and is based on earlier scatterometer data
and a TAFB Dvorak classification of T2.0. Hopefully the ASCAT
instrument will provide data over the system this afternoon to
determine if a well-defined center still exists.

Terry is moving west-northwestward or 290/13 kt. The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged as a well-established strong
deep-layer ridge to the north of Terry is expected to steer
the cyclone westward to west-northwestward during the next few
days. The dynamical model guidance is in agreement on this
scenario but the updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted
slightly northward to be closer to the various consensus aids.

The mid-level shear that has been plaguing Terry is forecast to
continue during the next day or two. This is likely to result in
some additional weakening during that time. Although some of the
guidance suggests that Terry could reach a more favorable
environment later in the period, the current structure of the
system suggests that there will not be enough left of the cyclone
to take advantage of that. Therefore, the NHC forecast continues
to follow the ECMWF and UKMET models which depict weakening and
dissipation by day 4. It is possible that Terry will loose
tropical cyclone status much sooner, either due to a lack of
organized convection or loss of a well-defined center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 10.1N 106.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 10.6N 108.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 11.2N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 11.4N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 11.5N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 11.5N 118.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 11.3N 121.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 081435
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Terry Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
800 AM MST Mon Nov 08 2021

...DISORGANIZED TERRY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION..


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 106.6W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Terry
was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 106.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph
(24 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected
for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few
days, and Terry could dissipate or become a remnant low during that
time.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 081435
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
1500 UTC MON NOV 08 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 106.6W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 106.6W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 106.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 10.6N 108.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 11.2N 111.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 11.4N 113.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 11.5N 116.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 11.5N 118.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 11.3N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 106.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 080857
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Terry Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
300 AM CST Mon Nov 08 2021

The overall convective organization of the low-latitude Tropical
Storm Terry has become somewhat ragged looking since the previous
advisory, although there has been a recent small burst of deep
convection near and northeast of the estimated low-level center. A
0255Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass indicated that surface winds had
decreased to 29 kt northeast of the center during the earlier
convective waning period. However, the recent increase in convection
with cloud tops of around -85C may have locally enhanced those ASCAT
wind speeds and, thus, Terry's intensity has only been lowered to 35
kt.

Terry's initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or
295/12 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous track
forecast or synoptic reasoning. Terry and it is expected to continue
moving west-northwestward through today, followed by a turn toward
the west on Tuesday. A general westward motion is forecast on days
2-5 as a sprawling deep-later ridge to the north of the cyclone is
expected to remain entrenched across most of the eastern North
Pacific. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous
advisory track, and lies along the southern edge of the tightly
packed simple- and corrected-consensus track model envelope.

ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B scatterometer surface wind data from 0300-0400Z
showed that Terry's low-level wind field had become elongated
east-to-west, and that the radius of maximum winds had also
increased to at least 70 nmi in the northeastern quadrant. Although
the deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to remain relatively
low at less than 10 kt, the GFS and ECMWF global models are
forecasting moderate mid-level shear to undercut the otherwise
favorable upper-level outflow layer, resulting in a continued
disruption of the convective pattern. As a result, gradual weakening
is expected during the 5-day period, with Terry now forecast to
become a tropical depression later today. Otherwise, no other
changes were made to the previous intensity forecast, with the new
NHC intensity forecast closely following a blend of the simple and
corrected-consensus intensity model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 9.6N 105.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 10.0N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 10.5N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 10.7N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 10.9N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 10.9N 117.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 10.9N 119.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0600Z 10.7N 125.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 080833
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Terry Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
300 AM CST Mon Nov 08 2021

...TERRY WEAKENS A LITTLE...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 105.1W
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Terry was
located near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 105.1 West. Terry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Terry is expected to become depression later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 080833
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM TERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
0900 UTC MON NOV 08 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 105.1W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 105.1W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 10.0N 107.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 10.5N 109.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 10.7N 112.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 10.9N 114.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 10.9N 117.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 10.9N 119.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 10.7N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.6N 105.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 080236
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Terry Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
900 PM CST Sun Nov 07 2021

Terry remains a very low latitude tropical storm. The system has
generally changed little during the past several hours, with the
cloud pattern consisting of a ragged central dense overcast feature
and broken curved bands that are most organized in the northwestern
quadrant. The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at
the University of Wisconsin range from 35 to 50 kt, and the initial
intensity is nudged up to 40 kt based on that data.

The track forecast reasoning is unchanged. The storm is moving
west-northwestward at 12 kt, and it is expected to move westward to
west-northwestward through Monday. Thereafter, a due westward motion
is expected as Terry moves on the south side of a strong low- to
mid-level ridge. The models all show a similar theme, but there is
some cross- and along-track spread. The new track forecast is a
touch north of the previous one to come into better agreement with
the latest consensus aids.

Now that Terry has pulled away from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where
dry and stable air was entraining into the system, some slight
additional strengthening is possible in the short term as the large
scale conditions remain generally favorable. However, in a couple
of days, increasing southerly shear will likely end the opportunity
for strengthening and cause a gradual decay. The GFS and ECMWF both
show Terry's convection losing organization around the middle of the
week and those models also show the system dissipating within the
ITCZ in 4 or 5 days. There is a large spread in the intensity
models, but given the expected environmental conditions, the NHC
intensity forecast continues to lie near the low end of the
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 9.0N 103.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 9.5N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 10.0N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 10.4N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 10.6N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 10.6N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 10.7N 118.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 10.5N 124.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 080235
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Terry Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
900 PM CST Sun Nov 07 2021

...TERRY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.0N 103.8W
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Terry was
located near latitude 9.0 North, longitude 103.8 West. Terry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight additional strengthening is possible during the next
day or so. Weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 080235
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM TERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
0300 UTC MON NOV 08 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 103.8W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 103.8W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 103.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 9.5N 105.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 10.0N 108.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 10.4N 110.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 10.6N 113.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 10.6N 115.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 10.7N 118.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 10.5N 124.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.0N 103.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 072044
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Terry Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
300 PM CST Sun Nov 07 2021

The overall organization of the depression has become slightly
better since this morning. Recent one-minute GOES-16 visible
satellite imagery suggests that the center is better defined and
there has been a persistent cluster of convection just southeast
of the estimated center since this morning. Subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB were unchanged at 30-35 kt,
but ADT and SATCON estimates are in the 39-42 kt range. Although a
1410 UTC ASCAT-A overpass missed the center, it did reveal an area
of 30-40 kt winds along the edge of the swath, however the
strongest vectors were flagged due to rain contamination. Given
the recent improvement in both center definition and the persistent
convection near that feature, the intensity is increased to 35 kt
for this advisory.

Terry is moving just north of due west at 275/12 kt. The steering
currents ahead of the storm remains well established with a strong
deep-layer ridge located to the north. That feature should guide
Terry westward to west-northwestward at about 12 kt for the next
several days. The NHC track guidance is in good agreement on the
overall scenario, but there is spread regarding the cyclone's
forward speed. The NHC track leans closer to the slightly more
southern and deeper GFS solution. This is along the southern
side of the guidance envelope and fairly close to the speed of
the various consensus aids.

The storm is forecast to remain within low vertical wind shear
conditions over the next couple of days, however it is likely to
ingest drier and more stable air that is located just to the north.
That stable air is expected to keep significant strengthening from
occurring, but some limited intensification is possible during the
next day or two. By Tuesday night or Wednesday, environmental
conditions are forecast become more hostile with an increase in
vertical shear and decreasing mid-level humidity. Those factors
should cause weakening and degeneration to a remnant low by 96
hours. The global models indicate that the system will open up into
a trough along the ITCZ by day 5 and that is reflected in the
official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 8.5N 102.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 8.9N 104.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 9.4N 106.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 9.7N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 9.8N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 9.9N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 10.0N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 10.0N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 072043
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Terry Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
300 PM CST Sun Nov 07 2021

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM TERRY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.5N 102.6W
ABOUT 735 MI...1180 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Terry was
located near latitude 8.5 North, longitude 102.6 West. Terry is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is
possible during the next day or so. Weakening is forecast to
begin by late Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 072043
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM TERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
2100 UTC SUN NOV 07 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 102.6W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 102.6W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 102.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 8.9N 104.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 9.4N 106.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 9.7N 109.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 9.8N 111.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 9.9N 114.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 10.0N 116.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 10.0N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.5N 102.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 071452
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
900 AM CST Sun Nov 07 2021

The depression's convective pattern remains quite disorganized
this morning. Although there are several blobs of convection and
areas of colder cloud tops, there is no evidence of curved banding
in both convection satellite and recent microwave data. It is
difficult to tell if the circulation has become any better defined
since the ASCAT overpass last evening. Hopefully the ASCAT
instrument will provide a better assessment of the system's
structure and strength later today. Subjective and objective Dvorak
intensity estimates are in the 30-35 kt range, and given the lack
of organization and earlier scatterometer data, the initial wind
speed is held at 30 kt.

The center of the depression has been difficult to locate this
morning, but recent fixes and continuity from the previous advisory
suggest it is moving westward or 275/12 kt. A deep-layer ridge to
the north of the depression should continue to steer it westward to
west-northwestward during the next several days. The model envelope
has trended a little farther north this cycle, but the NHC forecast
remains similar to the previous advisory, along the southern edge
of the envelope closest to the GFS, HWRF, and HMON solutions.

The depression is forecast to remain in low wind shear conditions
during the next several days, but a drier and more stable airmass
just to the north is likely to limit intensification. The NHC
forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and still shows
the system reaching tropical storm status within the next couple
of days. By 72 hours, the vertical shear is predicted to increase
and the mid-level humidity in the surrounding environment is
forecast to decrease. These negative factors should cause
weakening and degeneration of the system to a remnant low by 96
hours, and dissipation by day 5. This is supported by the GFS and
ECMWF models which weaken the system within the ITCZ after midweek.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 8.2N 101.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 8.7N 103.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 9.2N 105.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 9.5N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 9.8N 110.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 10.1N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 10.1N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 10.2N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 071451
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
900 AM CST Sun Nov 07 2021

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.2N 101.4W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen-E was located near latitude 8.2 North, longitude 101.4
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22
km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected
for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible within the next couple of
days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 071450
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
1500 UTC SUN NOV 07 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 101.4W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 101.4W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 100.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 8.7N 103.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 9.2N 105.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 9.5N 108.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 9.8N 110.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 10.1N 113.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 10.1N 115.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 10.2N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.2N 101.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 070844
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
300 AM CST Sun Nov 07 2021

The disheveled convective appearance of the depression has not
changed much since the previous advisory. However, recent ASCAT
scatterometer surface wind data indicate that the wind field has
actually become a little better defined. The ASCAT data also
indicated a small patch of wind speeds of 27-28 kt north of the
center, so the intensity remains at 30 kt for this advisory, which
is consistent with the latest subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates.

The depression is moving due west now, or 270/12 kt. The small
cyclone is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward along
the southern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge for the
next 5 days. This stable synoptic flow pattern has resulted in
little change to the previous forecast track, and the new NHC
advisory track lies along or just south of the middle of the
consensus track model envelope.

Although the associated convection remains poorly organized, the
improved low-level wind field noted in the aforementioned ASCAT data
wouldn't require much more convective organization for the cyclone
to reach tropical storm status at any time during the next 60 h or
so while the vertical wind shear remains low at only around 5 kt. By
72 h, however, the shear is forecast to increase from the southwest
and west at 20-25 kt while the cyclone moves westward into a
progressively drier airmass. That negative combination is expected
to induce weakening by 96 h, with the system degenerating into a
remnant low by 120 h, if not sooner. The new NHC intensity forecast
is just an update of the previous advisory, and closely follows a
blend of the the GFS and ECMWF models intensity forecasts, which
show a lower intensity on days 4 and 5 as compared to the higher
HWRF-/HMON-based consensus intensity models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 8.2N 100.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 8.5N 102.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 8.9N 104.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 9.3N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 9.7N 109.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 10.1N 111.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 10.2N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 10.4N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 10.4N 123.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 070842
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
300 AM CST Sun Nov 07 2021

...DEPRESSION HOLDING STEADY WHILE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.2N 100.5W
ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen-E was located near latitude 8.2 North, longitude 100.5
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22
km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected
for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so,
followed by slight strengthening on Monday or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 070842
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
0900 UTC SUN NOV 07 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 100.5W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 100.5W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 99.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 8.5N 102.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 8.9N 104.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 9.3N 107.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 9.7N 109.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 10.1N 111.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 10.2N 114.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 10.4N 119.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 10.4N 123.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.2N 100.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 070237
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
1000 PM CDT Sat Nov 06 2021

The structure of the depression has not changed much during the past
several hours. Deep convection continues to pulse near the center
and in bands on the system's south side. Last-light visible
satellite images indicate that the circulation is quite stretched,
likely due to the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. In fact,
confidence in the center location is low and somewhat based on
continuity. Hopefully the next round of ASCAT data and microwave
images will provide a better look at how organized the circulation
is overnight. For now, the system is held as a 30-kt depression
following the Dvorak estimates and the earlier ASCAT data.

The depression continues to move just south of due west at 265/11
kt, and the system is at a very low latitude near 8N. This motion
is expected to continue overnight, but a general westward to
west-northwestward motion is likely to occur after that as the
system moves within the flow on the south side of a low- to
mid-level ridge. Except for the UKMET, which is a northern outlier,
most of the models show a similar solution with some speed
differences. The NHC track forecast is near the middle of the
guidance envelope and just an update of the previous one.

The system has been steady state since it formed a little more than
two days ago despite being in generally favorable large-scale
conditions. Some of the models suggest that the depression will
slowly gain strength during the next several days, which is possible
since the environmental conditions are forecast to be at least
marginally conducive. However, since the depression has not
strengthened yet and because the circulation might not be well
organized, the NHC intensity forecast remains on the low side of the
guidance envelope through the period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 8.3N 98.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 8.4N 100.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 8.8N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 9.2N 105.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 9.6N 107.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 10.0N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 10.3N 112.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 10.6N 117.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 10.6N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 070237
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
1000 PM CDT Sat Nov 06 2021

...DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.3N 98.6W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen-E was located near latitude 8.3 North, longitude 98.6 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and
this general motion is expected to continue during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so,
followed by slight strengthening early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 070237
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
0300 UTC SUN NOV 07 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 98.6W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 98.6W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 98.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 8.4N 100.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 8.8N 102.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 9.2N 105.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 9.6N 107.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 10.0N 110.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 10.3N 112.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 10.6N 117.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 10.6N 123.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.3N 98.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 062042
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
400 PM CDT Sat Nov 06 2021

The structure of TD18-E looks a bit ragged this afternoon. The
earlier convective burst has decayed during the diurnal minimum,
though new convective cells are redeveloping to the
southwest and northeast of the estimated center position. A 1549
UTC ASCAT-B pass had peak winds of 29-kt on the north side of the
circulation. The scatterometer wind data also revealed that the
circulation is more elongated from southwest-to-northeast than 24
hours ago with the ambiguities suggesting it is barely
closed. For now, the system will be kept as a tropical depression,
with maximum sustained winds of 30 kt, matching the T2.0/30 kt
subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB this afternoon.

The depression continues to move just south of due west at 265/12
kt. There has been little change to the forecast track reasoning,
with a prominent mid-level ridge over Mexico steering the system
generally westward. The depression could gain a bit of latitude
from 24-72 hours as the ridge weakens a bit over Mexico, but
afterwards another mid-level ridge takes its place west of the Baja
California Peninsula. The latest NHC track forecast is very
similar to the previous forecast, and lies closest to a blend
between the GFS and ECMWF runs (GFEX) this cycle.

While the depression this afternoon looks more convectively
organized than 24 hours ago, the current elongated structure is not
favorable for intensification in the short term, despite seemingly
conducive environmental conditions (low shear, warm sea-surface
temperatures, moist mid-level air). While the intensity consensus
aids (ICON, HCCA) show a bit more intensification than before, I'd
like to see if the fragile vortex is able to survive another 24-36
hours traversing the low-latitudes before showing more significant
intensification. In addition, the global models continue to show
little if any strengthening. The latest NHC forecast is a carbon
copy of the previous one and is closest in intensity to the latest
ECMWF and LGEM guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 8.3N 97.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 8.2N 99.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 8.3N 101.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 8.8N 104.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 9.2N 106.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 9.8N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 10.2N 111.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 10.4N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 10.5N 122.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 062041
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
400 PM CDT Sat Nov 06 2021

...LOW LATITUDE DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.3N 97.7W
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen-E was located near latitude 8.3 North, longitude 97.7 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and
this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so,
followed by slight strengthening by early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 062038
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
2100 UTC SAT NOV 06 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 97.7W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 97.7W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 97.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 8.2N 99.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 8.3N 101.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 8.8N 104.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 9.2N 106.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 9.8N 109.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 10.2N 111.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 10.4N 116.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 10.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.3N 97.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 061453
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
1000 AM CDT Sat Nov 06 2021

After struggling to produce much in the way of deep convection
yesterday, a large nocturnal deep convective burst, with
overshooting cloud tops as cold as -85 C, occurred near the
estimated center of the depression, though this activity is
beginning to wane. An 0815 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass also
suggested modest organization under the cirrus, with some banding
features present in the deep convection. While last night's
scatterometer derived winds only topped out at 27 kt, the most
recent subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB is at T2.0/30
kt. The latest objective UW-CIMSS ADT estimate is even higher at
T2.5/35 kt. These estimates support bringing the intensity back up
to 30 kt for this advisory.

Using both scatterometer and microwave fixes, the depression has
maintained a south of due west heading over the past 12-24 hours,
with the latest motion estimated at 260/12 kt. This general heading
is expected to continue for the next several days with a gradual
bend poleward in the latter half of the forecast period as the
cyclone rounds the southern side of a expensive mid-level ridge
centered over Mexico. The latest NHC track forecast has been
adjusted just a bit faster, blending the tightly clustered
consensus aids TVCE and HCCA.

The depression's overnight convective burst was well anticipated by
the both the GFS and ECMWF simulated IR brightness temperature and
both models show more persistent activity continuing through the
forecast period. Despite this factor, neither model shows much, if
any, additional strengthening. This result is interesting, since
both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance indicate low 200-850
hPa vertical wind shear, 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures, and a
fairly moist mid-level environment. One factor possibly limiting the
intensity forecast is the possibility of higher westerly mid-level
shear undercutting the more favorable deep-layer shear. In addition,
the tropical cyclone is forecast to remain at fairly low-latitude
which can sometimes limit vortex spin-up in a lower Coriolis
environment. Even the overzealous HWRF model has come back down to
earth, showing only a peak intensity as a more modest tropical
storm. The latest NHC intensity forecast does still show TD18-E
eventually becoming a tropical storm in 36 h, but does not show any
additional development. This forecast is a blend between the
slightly higher intensity consensus aids (IVCN, HCCA) with the more
pessimistic global model guidance (UKMET, GFS, ECMWF) which do not
indicate any additional intensification over the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 8.4N 96.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 8.2N 98.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 8.1N 100.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 8.4N 103.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 8.9N 105.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 9.5N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 10.0N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 10.5N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 10.7N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 061449
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
1000 AM CDT Sat Nov 06 2021

...DEPRESSION A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.4N 96.6W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM S OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen-E was located near latitude 8.4 North, longitude 96.6 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and
this motion is expected to continue with a gradual increase in
forward speed over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so,
followed by slight strengthening by early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 061448
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
1500 UTC SAT NOV 06 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 96.6W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 96.6W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 96.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 8.2N 98.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 8.1N 100.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 8.4N 103.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 8.9N 105.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 9.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 10.0N 110.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 10.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 10.7N 121.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.4N 96.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 060900
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
400 AM CDT Sat Nov 06 2021

The depression's associated deep convection remains poorly
organized, and recent ASCAT scatterometer surface wind data indicate
that the inner-core wind field is elongated northeast to southwest.
In addition, the highest ASCAT wind speeds noted were 25-27 kt.
Based on that ASCAT data, the intensity has been lowered to 25 kt,
which is consistent the T1.0 and T1.5 satellite classifications from
TAFB and SAB, respectively.

The depression is moving just south of due west, or 260/12 kt. A
westward to west-northwestward motion along the southern periphery
of a sprawling deep-layer ridge entrenched to the north and
northwest of the cyclone is forecast to continue for the next 5
days. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory
track, and lies near or a tad south of the tightly-packed consensus
track models.

Entrainment of dry air mid- and upper-level air from the south is
expected to prevent any significant organization of deep convection
from occuring for the next 24 h or so despite the very low vertical
shear conditions of around 5 kt. Thereafter, the combination of low
shear, a slightly more moist environment, and warmer sea-surface
temperatures of 27.5-28C should allow for some modest strengthening
to occur on days 2-5. The latest NHC official intensity forecast is
the same as the the previous forecast, and closely follows an
average of the various simple- and corrected intensity consensus
models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 8.6N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 8.4N 97.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 8.2N 99.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 8.3N 101.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 8.9N 104.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 9.3N 106.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 9.6N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 10.3N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 10.6N 119.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 060846
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
400 AM CDT Sat Nov 06 2021

...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.6N 95.5W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM S OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen-E was located near latitude 8.6 North, longitude 95.5 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
westward to west-southwestward motion with a gradual increase in
forward speed is expected over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so,
followed by slow strengthening by early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 060846
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
0900 UTC SAT NOV 06 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 95.5W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 95.5W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 94.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 8.4N 97.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 8.2N 99.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 8.3N 101.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 8.9N 104.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 9.3N 106.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 9.6N 109.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 10.3N 113.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 10.6N 119.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.6N 95.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 060232
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
1000 PM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021

The depression remains weak and disheveled. Satellite images show
disorganized and transient patches of deep convection surrounding
the center, and the cloud pattern has generally changed little for
much of the day. The initial intensity is again held at 30 kt,
which is near the high end of the latest satellite intensity
estimates.

Dry and stable air, partly from the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap
wind event, continues to entrain into the circulation, which is
likely the reason why the system has been struggling. Despite
relatively low wind shear, continued stable air should prevent
strengthening in the short term. In fact, the depression could even
degenerate into a remnant low this weekend. By early next week,
however, the system is forecast to move into a more favorable
environment, and gradual strengthening is possible at that time.
The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one and in
line with the majority of the normally skillful models.

The depression continues to move just south of due west at about 10
kt. This motion should continue through Saturday due to the
influence of strong northeasterly low-level flow funneling through
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. From Sunday through the middle of next
week, a slightly faster westward motion is forecast as a mid-level
ridge becomes well established to the north of the cyclone. The new
NHC track forecast is a touch to the south of the previous one,
trending toward a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. This forecast
is slightly south of the consensus aids, which could be biased to
the north due to the UKMET, which is well north of the other models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 8.9N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 8.7N 95.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 8.4N 98.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 8.4N 100.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 8.7N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 9.2N 105.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 9.6N 107.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 10.4N 112.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 10.8N 117.8W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 060231
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
1000 PM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.9N 94.5W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM S OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen-E was located near latitude 8.9 North, longitude 94.5 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A
west-southwest or west motion with a gradual increase in forward
speed is expected over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple
of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 060231
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
0300 UTC SAT NOV 06 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 94.5W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 94.5W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 94.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 8.7N 95.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 8.4N 98.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 8.4N 100.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 8.7N 103.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 9.2N 105.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 9.6N 107.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 10.4N 112.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 10.8N 117.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.9N 94.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 052045
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
400 PM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021

For the last 6-9 hours, TD18-E has not produced enough organized
deep convection to be classifiable as a tropical cyclone. Indeed,
the current satellite structure primarily consists of a low-level
cloud swirl, with only a few disorganized puffs of colder cloud tops
that quickly decay after they form. In addition, an earlier ASCAT-B
pass valid at 1608 UTC suggested that the circulation was also
becoming increasingly fragile, with less than 10 kt winds on the
southwest side of the vortex and a peak wind retrieval of only 25
kt. Subjective satellite Dvorak estimates have been decreasing, with
the latest T numbers down to T1.5 from TAFB and T1.0 from SAB.
Assuming some undersampling could still be occuring from the earlier
ASCAT wind data, the intensity was held at 30 kt this advisory,
though this is likely generous.

The motion continues to be south of due west, with the latest
estimate now at 260/9 kt. There has not been much change to the
latest track reasoning. An expansive mid-level ridge is expected to
build eastward over Mexico over the next several days, helping to
maintain the tropical cyclone on a westward heading throughout the
forecast period. However, the cyclone is vertically shallow,
and the influence of the low-level gap wind flow emanating from the
Gulf of Tehuantepec could be causing the short-term south of due
west bend in the track. Yet again, the track guidance has come in
further south and a bit faster compared to the previous cycle, and
the latest NHC track forecast has been shifted in that direction,
though still not quite as far south and west as the HCCA and TVCE
consensus aids.

Without any organized convection occuring near the center of the
depression currently, its future status as a tropical cyclone could
be in jeopardy. Apparently stable air has infiltrated the
circulation and is limiting convective output despite sufficently
warm sea-surface temperatures and vertical wind shear that does not
seem too inhibiting. The GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF model simulated IR
brightness temperature forecasts suggest that better organized
convection should return near the low-level center during tonight's
diurnal maximum. Even so, the global model guidance continues to
trend downward in the intensity forecast, delaying intensification
further out into the future. Indeed the most recent GFS run
maintains status quo intensity over the next 48 hours, joining the
ECMWF, SHIPS and LGEM guidance. The only guidance that shows
significant intensification over the next several days is the HWRF
and this model has had a persistent high bias. The latest intensity
forecast has been lowered a bit more beyond 36 h. As alluded above,
if organized deep convection does not return soon, it's possible
this depression could degenerate into a remnant low as early as
tomorrow.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 9.1N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 8.9N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 8.6N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 8.4N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 8.7N 101.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 9.2N 103.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 9.6N 106.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 10.6N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 11.0N 116.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 052043
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
400 PM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021

...LOW LATITUDE DEPRESSION STILL STRUGGLING...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.1N 93.5W
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen-E was located near latitude 9.1 North, longitude 93.5 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and
this general motion is expected to continue with a gradual
acceleration over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 052043
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
2100 UTC FRI NOV 05 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 93.5W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 93.5W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 92.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 8.9N 94.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 8.6N 96.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 8.4N 99.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 8.7N 101.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 9.2N 103.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 9.6N 106.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 10.6N 111.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 11.0N 116.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.1N 93.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 051455
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
1000 AM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021

The convective structure with the depression this morning remains
disheveled, with only scattered convection pulsing around the
circulation without much organization. The latest subjective Dvorak
satellite estimates are T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and T1.5/25 kt from
SAB, while the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was T2.1/31 kt. A
blend of these data support maintaining the intensity at 30 kt this
advisory.

Early morning visible satellite imagery suggests that the system is
moving south of due west, with the latest motion estimate at 260/8
kt. As an amplified short-wave trough located over the Gulf of
Mexico propagates eastward, a mid-level ridge ridge centered near
the Baja California peninsula is expected to expand eastward over
Mexico. This feature should dominate the steering pattern over the
depression through the forecast period, leading to a general
westward motion but at a gradually accelerating forward speed.
Because the depression is quite shallow currently, low-level flow in
association with a developing gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec may also assist the system in losing a bit more
latitude over the next 24-36 hours. After 48 hours, a weakness under
the ridge from an downstream disturbance may allow the depression to
gain back a bit of latitude. The track guidance remains in fairly
good agreement, though differences in speed are seen between the
slower GFS versus the faster ECMWF guidance, and another southward
shift has taken place. The official NHC track forecast is a bit
further south and a touch faster compared to the previous one,
following the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA.

The current poor organization of the convection argues against any
short-term intensity changes. While deep-layer (200-850 hPa)
vertical wind shear is expected to remain low, higher mid-level
shear may prevent better convective organization over the next 36-48
hours. While mid-level relative humidity is forecast to be
sufficently moist, visible satellite imagery suggests stable
stratocumulus inflow from the south, while the aforementioned gap
wind event to the north may also contribute to a less-than-optimal
thermodynamic environment. The official NHC intensity forecast now
shows no intensification over the next 36 hours with only gradual
intensification thereafter, favoring the more pessimistic guidance.
If the latest ECMWF and LGEM guidance are correct, the depression
may fail to intensify at all over the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 9.4N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 9.2N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 8.9N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 8.7N 97.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 8.7N 99.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 9.2N 102.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 9.8N 104.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 10.9N 109.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 11.3N 114.2W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 051452
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
1000 AM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021

...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.4N 92.4W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen-E was located near latitude 9.4 North, longitude 92.4 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and
this general motion is expected to continue with a gradual
acceleration over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or
so, followed by very gradual strengthening. The depression could
become a tropical storm this weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 051451
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
1500 UTC FRI NOV 05 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 92.4W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 92.4W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 92.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 9.2N 93.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 8.9N 95.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 8.7N 97.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 8.7N 99.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 9.2N 102.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 9.8N 104.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 10.9N 109.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 11.3N 114.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.4N 92.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 050848
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
400 AM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021

The depression has not become much better organized since
yesterday. Some small clusters of deep convection have formed to
the northeast and east of the center, and there are some thin
convective banding features over the southern and western portions
of the circulation. Cirrus-level outflow from the system is rather
weak at this time. The advisory intensity estimate is held at 30 kt
which is in general agreement with the latest Dvorak analyses from
TAFB and SAB, along with earlier scatterometer observations. The
latter data, however, suggest that this may be a slightly generous
estimate.

Latest center fixes indicate a continued westward motion, or around
265/6 kt. A mid-level ridge associated with a large high pressure
system centered over western Mexico should provide the primary
steering mechanism for the cyclone during the forecast period. A
mainly westward motion at a somewhat faster forward speed is
expected, as the system encounters slightly stronger easterlies on
the south side of the ridge within the next couple of days. The
dynamical track guidance is in fairly good agreement, although the
GFS model is a bit of a northern outlier. The official forecast
track is similar to the previous one, and close to the model
consensus.

Since it is still not very well organized, the tropical cyclone
is not expected to strengthen much through today. Although the
environment is seemingly conducive for strengthening, the model
guidance is not very aggressive in showing intensification during
the next few days. This may be partially due to a lack of mid- to
upper-level instability ,as suggested by the decay-SHIPS output.
The official forecast, like the previous one, shows only slow
strengthening beginning tomorrow, following the intensity model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 9.7N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 9.5N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 9.2N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 9.0N 96.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 8.9N 98.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 9.1N 100.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 9.5N 103.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 10.6N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 11.5N 112.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 050845
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
400 AM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021

...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.7N 91.7W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 740 MI...1195 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen-E was located near latitude 9.7 North, longitude 91.7 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and
a generally westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast over the next day or so,
followed by slow strengthening. The depression could become a
tropical storm this weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 050844
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
0900 UTC FRI NOV 05 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 91.7W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 91.7W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 91.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 9.5N 92.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 9.2N 94.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 9.0N 96.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 8.9N 98.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 9.1N 100.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 9.5N 103.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 10.6N 108.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 11.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.7N 91.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 050246
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
1000 PM CDT Thu Nov 04 2021

TD18-E is a poorly organized system this evening. Most of the
deeper convection that was near the center earlier today has
collapsed, with only a few skeletal outer bands remaining south of
the low-level circulation. Last light visible satellite imagery
also indicated that the low-level center was not vertically
aligned, located to the west ahead of the mid-level center. While I
have yet to receive new scatterometer data which should be
arriving soon, the current satellite structure argues against
any development. Indeed, the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak satellite
estimates have held steady or decreased from earlier today. The
current intensity will remain at 30 kt for this advisory, and even
this might be a bit generous.

After a motion to the west-northwest earlier, the depression appears
to have resumed a due westward motion, estimated at 270/6 kt. A
narrow mid-tropospheric ridge north of the cyclone has been steering
the system slowly westward, and this ridge is expected to strengthen
and merge with a larger mid-level ridge currently centered over the
Baja California peninsula. The end result of this pattern
reconfiguration on the depression should be a faster motion to the
west, or even west-southwest due to the orientation of the ridge
complex. By the end of the forecast period, the ridge is expected to
shift a bit more to the east, which will provide an opportunity for
the depression to gain some latitude by the end of the forecast
period. The model track guidance continues to be in good agreement,
though with a bit of along-track spread. The guidance overall has
made another shift to the south this cycle, and the latest NHC track
was also once again nudged further south, staying on the northern
side of the guidance envelope but not too far from the TVCE and HCCA
consensus solutions.

The intensity forecast is somewhat challenging. While the latest
SHIPS guidance indicates the depression will remain in low 200-850
hPa vertical wind shear, have ample mid-level moisture, and be over
27-28 C sea-surface temperatures, the majority of the intensity
guidance shows only modest strengthening over the next 2-3 days.
Model-derived soundings from the GFS and HWRF suggest that higher
mid-level shear could be undercutting this favorable upper-level
flow pattern over the time period. This undercutting shear may help
explain why the low and mid-level centers of the depression are
currently not aligned. In addition, surface-based backwards
trajectories suggest that the tropical cyclone is ingesting air
originating over the equator, which currently is dominated by an
environment of stable stratocumulus clouds. This may help explain
the anemic convective appearance of the system currently. An
additional forecast concern is the low-latitude track of the
cyclone, with the forecast showing the system losing additional
latitude over the next several days. All these factors make me
skeptical that there will be significant intensification over the
next 2-3 days and the intensity forecast has been lowered somewhat
from the previous one over this time period. The latest NHC
intensity forecast is a bit under the latest IVCN and NOAA-HCCA
consensus, but is higher than the current LGEM and ECMWF guidance,
which essentially show no intensification through the forecast
period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 9.7N 91.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 9.6N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 9.2N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 9.1N 95.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 8.9N 97.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 8.9N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 9.3N 102.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 10.0N 106.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 10.6N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 050244
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
1000 PM CDT Thu Nov 04 2021

...STRUGGLING DEPRESSION IS POORLY ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.7N 91.2W
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 765 MI...1235 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen-E was located near latitude 9.7 North, longitude 91.2 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and
this motion is expected to continue, along with a gradual increase
in forward speed through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast over the next day or
so, followed by very gradual strengthening. The depression
could become a tropical storm this weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 050237
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
0300 UTC FRI NOV 05 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 91.2W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 91.2W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 90.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 9.6N 92.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 9.2N 93.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 9.1N 95.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 8.9N 97.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 8.9N 99.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 9.3N 102.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 10.0N 106.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 10.6N 111.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.7N 91.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 042046
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
400 PM CDT Thu Nov 04 2021

The depression's overall appearance has not improved much today,
and the cyclone consists of a curved band that extends primarily to
the northeast of the estimated center, with the low-level center
near the edge of the deep convection. The initial intensity is
being held at 30 kt for this advisory, and is based on the latest
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS ADT.

The cyclone has wobbled a little to the west-northwest today and the
initial motion is 285/6 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge located to the
north of the depression is forecast to strengthen and expand
westward over the next few days. This should force the cyclone on
more of a westward track, or even a little south of west, along with
an increase in forward speed. This westward motion should continue
for the remainder of the 5-day forecast period. The model track
guidance remains in good agreement, and has shifted slightly south.
The latest NHC track forecast was also nudged to the south, but lies
on the northern end of the clustered track consensus solutions.

The forecast intensity philosophy remains unchanged. The environment
surrounding and ahead of the depression appears generally favorable
for strengthening with ample atmospheric moisture and SSTs of 27 to
28 degrees C. However, 5 to 10 kt of westerly shear combined with
the cyclone's increasing westward motion may cause convection to
periodically get stripped to the east of its center. The latest NHC
intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one,
and remains near the IVCN and NOAA-HCCA consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 9.6N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 9.7N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 9.5N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 9.2N 94.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 9.0N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 8.9N 98.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 9.2N 100.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 10.1N 105.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 11.0N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 042044
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
400 PM CDT Thu Nov 04 2021

...DEPRESSION MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 90.5W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen-E was located near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 90.5 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11
km/h). A turn to the west is expected to occur tonight, and this
motion, along with a gradual increase in forward speed is forecast
through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
the depression could become a tropical storm by Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 042044
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
2100 UTC THU NOV 04 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 90.5W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 90.5W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 90.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 9.7N 91.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 9.5N 92.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 9.2N 94.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 9.0N 96.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 8.9N 98.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 9.2N 100.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 10.1N 105.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 11.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.6N 90.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 041520 CCA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E
FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
1500 UTC THU NOV 04 2021

CORRECTED WIND RADII AT 24 HOURS

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 90.0W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 90.0W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 89.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 9.6N 90.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 9.4N 92.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 9.2N 93.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 9.0N 95.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 9.0N 97.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 9.0N 99.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 9.7N 104.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 11.1N 108.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.4N 90.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 041449
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
1000 AM CDT Thu Nov 04 2021

The area of low pressure we have been tracking since it formed
several days ago over the southwestern Caribbean Sea has moved
over the far eastern Pacific and gradually become better-defined
over the past couple of days. In addition, the convective
organization has steadily increased. An ASCAT-C overpass earlier
this morning showed that the surface low was slightly elongated.
However, the deep convection has persisted near, or just east of
that low for several hours since that time. First light visible
satellite imagery also indicates that the circulation is
well-defined. Therefore, advisories are being initiated for
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E. The ASCAT pass also showed peak
winds of 28 kt associated with the system, and a blend of the latest
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB suggest an initial
advisory intensity of 30 kt.

The initial motion of the depression is 280/7 kt. The cyclone is
located to the south of a broad mid-tropospheric ridge extending
across southern Mexico and much of the eastern Pacific basin. This
feature should steer the depression generally westward for most of
the forecast period, along with a gradual increase in forward speed.
By day 5, a turn to the west-northwest may occur, as the cyclone
becomes situated along the southwestern portion of the ridge. The
track model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the
NHC track forecast is near the various multi-model consensus
solutions.

The environment surrounding and ahead of the depression appears
generally favorable for strengthening with ample atmospheric
moisture and SSTs of 27 to 28 degrees C. The only inhibiting factor
to strengthening may be the westerly shear vector, which although
should remain under 10 kt, when combined with the cyclone's
increasing westerly forward motion may cause convection to
periodically get stripped to its east of its center. Based on these
conditions, the model guidance indicates a slow and steady pace of
strengthening over the next several days, and NHC follows suit with
an intensity forecast near the IVCN and NOAA-HCCA consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 9.4N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 9.6N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 9.4N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 9.2N 93.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 9.0N 95.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 9.0N 97.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 9.0N 99.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 9.7N 104.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 11.1N 108.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

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Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 041449
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
1000 AM CDT Thu Nov 04 2021

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR...
...FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.4N 90.0W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 845 MI...1355 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen-E was located near latitude 9.4 North, longitude 90.0 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast over the next few days, and the
depression could become a tropical storm by Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 041449
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182021
1500 UTC THU NOV 04 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 90.0W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 90.0W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 89.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 9.6N 90.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 9.4N 92.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 9.2N 93.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 9.0N 95.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 9.0N 97.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 9.0N 99.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 9.7N 104.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 11.1N 108.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.4N 90.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



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