Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MALOU-21
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 290900 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 25W (MALOU) WARNING NR 022A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (MALOU) WARNING NR 022A CORRECTED
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 25W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 32.0N 146.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.0N 146.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 36.5N 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 41 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 41.7N 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 33.1N 148.3E.
29OCT21. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
27 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ELONGATED AS THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION IS SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). THE MSI LOOP ALSO CLEARLY SHOWS THE LLC HAS
ACCELERATED AND BECOME EMBEDDED IN A NE-SW ORIENTED COLD FRONT AS
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS LINES FEED INTO THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE FEATURE IN THE
MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE WEAKENING AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES.
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS MALOU IS NOW IN THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE UNDER
HIGH (30KT+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UNDERGOING RAPID EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE
LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 32 FEET.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED FORCAST DISCUSSION TO
REMARKS//
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