Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ROSE-21
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 230833
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
900 AM GMT Thu Sep 23 2021

Rose has withered away. The cyclone has not produced organized deep
convection for nearly 24 hours now, and therefore, the system no
longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. The initial
intensity of the remnant low is held at 30 kt based on the earlier
ASCAT data.

Rose is moving northwestward at 9 kt. A turn to the north is
expected by tonight, followed by a northeast to east motion as the
shallow system moves in the low-level flow ahead of a deep-layer
trough. The remnant low is expected to persist for a couple of
days and could produce intermittent bursts of deep convection.
However, west-northwesterly shear of 25-30 kt and dry mid-level air
should prevent the convection from organizing.

Additional information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 25.2N 41.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 23/1800Z 26.4N 42.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 24/0600Z 27.8N 42.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/1800Z 28.7N 40.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0600Z 29.2N 38.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 230832
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021
0900 UTC THU SEP 23 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 41.6W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 41.6W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 41.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.4N 42.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.8N 42.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.7N 40.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.2N 38.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 41.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON ROSE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 230832
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
900 AM GMT Thu Sep 23 2021

...ROSE IS NOW A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 41.6W
ABOUT 1300 MI...2095 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose
was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 41.6 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph
(17 km/h). A turn to the north is expected by tonight, followed by
a northeast or east motion on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rose is expected to dissipate in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Rose. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 230501
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021
0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 40.9W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 40.9W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 40.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.7N 41.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.2N 42.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.4N 41.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.2N 33.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 40.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 230238
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

Rose continues to be devoid of deep convection as shear and dry
mid-level air has taken their toll on the system. Although Rose
appears to be well on its way to post-tropical cyclone status, it
seems prudent to maintain advisories a little longer since the
system is over warm waters and some convection could return
overnight. If that does not occur, Rose is likely to become
a remnant low by tomorrow morning, and that is what is indicated in
the official forecast. The remnant low is forecast to continue to
gradually spin down over the next day or two. The GFS and ECMWF
suggest that some convection could re-develop in the 48-96 h time
period when the remnants of Rose interact with an upper-level
trough, but the NHC forecast once again does not call for
re-generation at that time. In fact, the latest forecast calls for
the system to become an open trough by 96 h, which is supported by
the GFS.

Rose has continued to move west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. The
cyclone should turn northwestward very soon as it moves around the
western flank of a low- to mid-level ridge. Rose or its remnants
should then turn northward, northeastward, and then eventually
east-northeastward as a deep-layer trough digs southward over the
east-central Atlantic. The latest guidance envelope has again
shifted westward in the short term, and the updated NHC track
forecast has been adjusted accordingly. After 36 h, the official
forecast lies near the previous advisory and is close to the
various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 24.6N 40.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 25.7N 41.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 24/0000Z 27.2N 42.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/1200Z 28.4N 41.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0000Z 29.0N 39.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/1200Z 29.5N 36.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0000Z 30.2N 33.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 230238
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021
0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 40.9W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 40.9W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 40.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.7N 41.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.2N 42.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.4N 41.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.2N 33.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 40.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 230238
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rose Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

...ROSE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 40.9W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2000 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rose
was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 40.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h). A northwestward motion is expected tonight, with a turn
toward the north forecast by Thursday night. A motion toward the
northeast is expected on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Rose is expected to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by
early Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 222037
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

Rose is currently comprised of a swirl of low-level clouds, with
the only significant convection occurring about 120 n mi southeast
of the center. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased, and
are now 25 kt from TAFB and too weak to classify from SAB. Based
mainly on earlier scatterometer data, the initial intensity is held
at a possibly generous 30 kt. Rose remain in an area of
northwesterly shear and upper-level convergence, and dry mid-level
air has been entraining into the circulation. The large-scale model
guidance indicates that the hostile conditions will continue for at
least another 36 h, and based on model forecasts of convection Rose
is now expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in
24 h or less. It should be noted that the GFS and HWRF models
suggest the possibility that convection could re-develop in the
48-96 h period due to the remnant low interacting with an
upper-level trough. For now, the intensity forecast will not call
for re-generation at that time.

The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 300/9 kt. A
northwestward motion is expected for the next 12-24 hours as Rose or
its remnants are steered by a mid-level ridge over the eastern
Atlantic. After that time, the system is expected to turn
northward, northeastward, and eventually east-northeastward as it
becomes steered by a deep-layer trough that includes the remnants
of Odette. Since Rose has moved a bit to the west of the previous
forecast, the guidance and the new forecast track have also shifted
westward during the first 36 h. The new NHC track is to the east of
the consensus models for the first 36 h, and close to the consensus
aids after that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 24.2N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 25.2N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 26.7N 41.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0600Z 28.0N 41.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1800Z 29.0N 39.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/0600Z 29.5N 36.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1800Z 30.1N 34.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1800Z 31.9N 30.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 222036
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rose Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

...ROSE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 40.2W
ABOUT 1190 MI...1920 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rose
was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 40.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph
(17 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected tonight, with a turn
toward the north forecast by Thursday night. A motion toward the
northeast is expected on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and
Rose is expected to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area on
Thursday or Thursday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 222035
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021
2100 UTC WED SEP 22 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 40.2W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 40.2W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 39.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.2N 41.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.7N 41.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 28.0N 41.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.0N 39.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.5N 36.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 30.1N 34.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 31.9N 30.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 40.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 221444
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rose Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

...ROSE REMAINS DISORGANIZED WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 39.2W
ABOUT 1115 MI...1800 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rose
was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 39.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and
this general motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward
the north is expected on Thursday, followed by a northeastward
motion by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little overall change in intensity is expected during the next
couple of days, however, Rose is forecast to degenerate into a
remnant low by Friday night or Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 221438
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

Rose is currently comprised of a swirl of low-level clouds with no
significant convection, with an earlier burst dissipating during the
last few hours. Recently received scatterometer data show 25-30 kt
winds in the northeastern quadrant, so the initial intensity is held
at 30 kt. The cyclone remains in an environment of northwesterly
shear and upper-level convergence, and dry mid-level air has been
entraining into the circulation. Since the shear is expected to
increase during the next 2-3 days, the cyclone is expected to
gradually weaken during this time. However, confidence in the
timing of when the system will stop producing organized convection
is still low. The new intensity forecast calls for Rose to
degenerate into a remnant low between 60-72 h, but it is possible
this could happen earlier.

The initial motion is now 305/8 kt. The depression is expected to
turn northward in 24-36 hours as it moves on the west side of a low-
to mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. By 48-60 h, a turn
to the northeast is expected as Rose gets caught in the flow on the
southeast side of a deep-layer trough over the north Atlantic.
Based on the initial position and motion, the first 36 h of the
forecast track are shifted a little to the west of the previous
track. After that time, the new forecast track is similar to the
previous track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 23.6N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 24.6N 40.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 26.1N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 27.6N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 28.8N 39.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 29.4N 37.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 29.9N 34.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1200Z 31.5N 30.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 221437
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021
1500 UTC WED SEP 22 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 39.2W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 39.2W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 38.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.6N 40.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.1N 41.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.6N 41.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.8N 39.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.4N 37.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.9N 34.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 31.5N 30.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 39.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 221437
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rose Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

...ROSE REMAINS DISORGANIZED WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC....


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 39.2W
ABOUT 1115 MI...1800 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rose
was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 39.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and
this general motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward
the north is expected on Thursday, followed by a northeastward
motion by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little overall change in intensity is expected during the next
couple of days, however, Rose is forecast to degenerate into a
remnant low by Friday night or Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 220833
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

Rose remains a strongly sheared and poorly organized tropical
depression. The low-level center is fully exposed and only a small
area of thunderstorms is lingering on the system's east side. The
initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak
estimates. The cyclone is currently in an environment of about 20 kt
of northwesterly shear, and dry mid-level air has been entraining
into the circulation. Since the shear is expected to increase
during the next few days, little change in strength or gradual
weakening seems likely. Rose is forecast to become a remnant low by
60 hours when the shear is expected to be near 30 kt, but confidence
in the timing of when the system will lose organized convection is
low. Some of the models show Rose opening into a trough toward the
end of the forecast period, but there are some solutions that hold
on to the system for a while longer.

The depression is moving northwestward at 7 kt. The system is
expected to turn northward in about 36 hours as it moves on the
west side of a low- to mid-level ridge. On Friday, a turn to the
northeast is expected as Rose gets caught in the flow on the
southeast side of a deep-layer trough. The models are in good
agreement, and the new NHC track forecast is largely an update of
the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 23.4N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 24.2N 39.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 25.5N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 27.0N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 28.4N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 29.5N 38.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 30.1N 36.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0600Z 31.2N 31.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 220832
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rose Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

...DISORGANIZED ROSE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC....


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 38.4W
ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rose was
located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 38.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and
this general motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward
the north is expected on Thursday, followed by a northeastward
motion by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little overall change in intensity is expected during the next
couple of days, however, Rose is forecast to degenerate into a
remnant low by Friday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 220832
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021
0900 UTC WED SEP 22 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 38.4W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 38.4W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 38.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.2N 39.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.5N 40.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.0N 41.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 28.4N 40.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.5N 38.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 30.1N 36.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 31.2N 31.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 38.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 220404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 22.09.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.3N 29.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2021 0 10.3N 29.3W 1013 19
1200UTC 22.09.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ODETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 40.2N 39.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2021 0 40.2N 39.8W 1003 39
1200UTC 22.09.2021 12 42.0N 39.7W 1001 39
0000UTC 23.09.2021 24 44.2N 41.5W 1001 36
1200UTC 23.09.2021 36 44.4N 42.4W 1000 38
0000UTC 24.09.2021 48 44.5N 41.5W 998 35
1200UTC 24.09.2021 60 44.1N 40.1W 999 36
0000UTC 25.09.2021 72 41.5N 38.2W 1000 37
1200UTC 25.09.2021 84 38.7N 35.6W 1004 32
0000UTC 26.09.2021 96 36.4N 34.2W 1009 29
1200UTC 26.09.2021 108 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 65.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2021 0 20.5N 65.4W 1010 26
1200UTC 22.09.2021 12 21.6N 66.3W 1010 22
0000UTC 23.09.2021 24 22.5N 66.6W 1008 22
1200UTC 23.09.2021 36 23.4N 66.4W 1008 22
0000UTC 24.09.2021 48 24.2N 65.4W 1009 22
1200UTC 24.09.2021 60 25.0N 64.3W 1010 23
0000UTC 25.09.2021 72 26.0N 63.3W 1010 24
1200UTC 25.09.2021 84 27.1N 62.7W 1010 24
0000UTC 26.09.2021 96 28.0N 61.6W 1010 21
1200UTC 26.09.2021 108 29.0N 60.9W 1010 21
0000UTC 27.09.2021 120 30.2N 59.0W 1009 22
1200UTC 27.09.2021 132 31.0N 57.2W 1007 27
0000UTC 28.09.2021 144 31.5N 54.9W 1006 28

TROPICAL STORM ROSE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.4N 37.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2021 0 22.4N 37.8W 1011 27
1200UTC 22.09.2021 12 23.9N 38.9W 1012 26
0000UTC 23.09.2021 24 25.0N 40.8W 1013 26
1200UTC 23.09.2021 36 26.6N 42.3W 1015 23
0000UTC 24.09.2021 48 28.0N 43.1W 1016 20
1200UTC 24.09.2021 60 29.2N 42.4W 1015 21
0000UTC 25.09.2021 72 29.5N 40.1W 1012 23
1200UTC 25.09.2021 84 29.0N 36.8W 1009 26
0000UTC 26.09.2021 96 28.7N 35.0W 1008 27
1200UTC 26.09.2021 108 28.6N 34.7W 1010 25
0000UTC 27.09.2021 120 28.8N 35.1W 1011 23
1200UTC 27.09.2021 132 29.6N 35.6W 1012 25
0000UTC 28.09.2021 144 30.6N 35.9W 1014 24

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 12.2N 44.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2021 72 12.5N 45.0W 1010 29
1200UTC 25.09.2021 84 13.2N 46.7W 1009 30
0000UTC 26.09.2021 96 14.0N 48.3W 1007 34
1200UTC 26.09.2021 108 14.6N 50.0W 1005 39
0000UTC 27.09.2021 120 15.2N 51.8W 1003 45
1200UTC 27.09.2021 132 15.9N 53.5W 1001 47
0000UTC 28.09.2021 144 17.0N 55.3W 995 50


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 220404

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 220404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.09.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.3N 29.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.09.2021 10.3N 29.3W WEAK
12UTC 22.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM ODETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 40.2N 39.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.09.2021 40.2N 39.8W WEAK
12UTC 22.09.2021 42.0N 39.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2021 44.2N 41.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2021 44.4N 42.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2021 44.5N 41.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2021 44.1N 40.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2021 41.5N 38.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2021 38.7N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2021 36.4N 34.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 65.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.09.2021 20.5N 65.4W WEAK
12UTC 22.09.2021 21.6N 66.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2021 22.5N 66.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2021 23.4N 66.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2021 24.2N 65.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2021 25.0N 64.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2021 26.0N 63.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2021 27.1N 62.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2021 28.0N 61.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2021 29.0N 60.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2021 30.2N 59.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2021 31.0N 57.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2021 31.5N 54.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM ROSE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.4N 37.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.09.2021 22.4N 37.8W WEAK
12UTC 22.09.2021 23.9N 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2021 25.0N 40.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2021 26.6N 42.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2021 28.0N 43.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2021 29.2N 42.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2021 29.5N 40.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2021 29.0N 36.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2021 28.7N 35.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2021 28.6N 34.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2021 28.8N 35.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2021 29.6N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2021 30.6N 35.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 12.2N 44.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.09.2021 12.5N 45.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.09.2021 13.2N 46.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2021 14.0N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2021 14.6N 50.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2021 15.2N 51.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2021 15.9N 53.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2021 17.0N 55.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 220404

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 220238
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021

Strong northwesterly shear has continued to take a toll on Rose
this evening with the remaining deep convection becoming further
separated from the low-level center. Unfortunately Rose fell
within the gaps of the ASCAT satellite instruments this evening, so
there has been no recent scatterometer data. Dvorak T-numbers from
TAFB and SAB have continued to decline, and these subjective
estimates support lowering Rose's initial intensity to 30 kt. The
environment ahead of the cyclone is expected to remain quite
hostile with moderate westerly to northwesterly shear and a dry
mid-level atmosphere. Simulated satellite imagery from the global
models suggest Rose will continue to produce bursts of convection
over the eastern portion of its circulation during the next few days
which could allow it remain a tropical cyclone during that time.
Alternatively, the shear and dry air could cause the system to
degenerate into a remnant low much sooner. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and calls for little
overall change in strength during the next couple of days, followed
by degeneration into a remnant low by day 3.

Rose continues to decelerate, now moving northwestward at about
9 kt. The depression should remain on a slow northwestward heading
around the western portion of a subtropical ridge during the next
24 to 36 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to turn
northward, and then recurve northeastward ahead of a mid- to
upper-level trough over the central Atlantic. The dynamical
guidance envelope remained fairly steady this cycle and no
significant change was made to the previous official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 22.9N 37.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 23.9N 38.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 25.0N 40.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 26.3N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 27.6N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 28.9N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 29.7N 37.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0000Z 31.3N 32.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 220238
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021
0300 UTC WED SEP 22 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 37.9W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 37.9W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 37.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.9N 38.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 40.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.3N 41.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.6N 41.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.9N 40.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.7N 37.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 31.3N 32.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 37.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 220238
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rose Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021

...ROSE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION....


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 37.9W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rose
was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 37.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h),
and this general motion should continue through Wednesday. A turn
toward the north is expected on Thursday, followed by a
northeastward motion by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little overall change in intensity is expected
during the next couple of days, however Rose is forecast to
degenerate into a remnant low on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 212036
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
500 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021

Shear continues to disrupt Rose's deep convection, with only a
small cluster remaining in the eastern quadrant of the storm.
Dvorak estimates support holding the intensity at 35 kt for one
more advisory, and hopefully the evening scatterometer passes will
get a good look at the cyclone's wind field.

Rose is moving more slowly to the northwest, now about 10 kt. The
storm should gradually turn northward during the next couple of
days around the southwestern side of a subtropical ridge. Somewhat
surprisingly, guidance has shifted westward during this time,
perhaps due to a weaker Rose not feeling as much of the
southwesterly flow aloft. This westward shift in the track also
puts Rose in a position to either get shunted east like the ECMWF
solution, or uprooted more to the northeast at long range similar to
the GFS. Given the recent and large model changes since the last
cycle, this forecast conservatively moves westward toward the model
mean at most time ranges, not too far from a 50/50 blend of the
GFS/ECMWF models (GFEX).

The cyclone has a difficult environment ahead, with persistent
moderate westerly or northwesterly shear, plentiful dry air aloft
and only marginally warm waters. All of the guidance shows Rose
decaying into a tropical depression fairly soon, and it could even
wither into a remnant low tomorrow or Thursday in the harsh
conditions. However, the shear could let up just enough, along with
some upper divergence from an upcoming trough interaction, to
continue to produce deep convection for a few days. This isn't an
easy forecast because some of the guidance actually re-intensifies
Rose due to the trough, while other guidance completely dissipates
the tropical cyclone. Given the considerable uncertainty, I've kept
the previous forecast the same at long range until more clarity
emerges in the model suite.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 22.5N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 23.5N 38.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 24.8N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 26.2N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 27.5N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 28.8N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 29.8N 38.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1800Z 31.5N 33.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 212036
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
500 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021

...ROSE HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM....


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 37.7W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 37.7 West. Rose is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). The storm
should gradually turn toward the north during the next couple of
days and move more to the northeast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rose could decay into a tropical depression this evening and
degenerate into a remnant low by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 212035
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021
2100 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 37.7W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 37.7W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 37.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.5N 38.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.8N 39.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 26.2N 40.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.5N 41.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 28.8N 40.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.8N 38.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 31.5N 33.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 37.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 211451
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 21 2021

The center of Rose remains exposed this morning on satellite
imagery, located about a degree west of a small area of deep
convection, with a smaller low-level swirl rotating around the
larger mean circulation. A pair of recent scatterometer passes
indicated winds of only 30-35 kt, so the initial intensity is
reduced to 35 kt on this advisory.

The storm's environment is no bed of roses during the next several
days, with persistent moderate westerly or northwesterly shear,
plentiful dry air aloft and only marginally warm waters. Almost
all of the guidance shows Rose decaying into a tropical depression
this evening, and the new forecast is decreased from the previous
one, especially in the near term. A continuation of this hostile
environment should cause further weakening, and Rose is expected to
be pushing up daisies in 3 days or less, degenerating into a weak
remnant low and dissipating by the end of the forecast.

Rose is moving more slowly to the northwest this morning at about 12
kt. The storm should gradually turn northward during the next
couple of days around the southwestern side of a subtropical ridge.
Thereafter, a mid-latitude trough is anticipated to steer Rose
faster to the northeast or east-northeast by the weekend, which
should cause the weak tropical cyclone to open up into a trough
towards the end of the forecast. While there are some speed
differences among the models, the latest guidance suite is similar
to the last forecast, so no significant changes were made to the NHC
track prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 21.6N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 22.8N 37.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 24.1N 38.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 25.4N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 26.9N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 28.3N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 29.4N 39.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1200Z 31.5N 34.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 211450
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 21 2021

...ROSE GOING THROUGH A ROUGH PATCH...
...BARELY A TROPICAL STORM....


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 36.9W
ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was
located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 36.9 West. Rose is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). The storm
should gradually turn toward the north during the next couple of
days and move more to the northeast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rose could decay into a tropical depression this
evening and degenerate into a remnant low by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 211449
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021
1500 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 36.9W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 36.9W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 36.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.8N 37.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.1N 38.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.4N 39.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.9N 40.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 28.3N 40.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.4N 39.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 31.5N 34.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 36.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 210837
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
500 AM AST Tue Sep 21 2021

Rose has lost organization over the past several hours. Satellite
images show a fully exposed low-level center with only a small area
of deep convection lingering in the southeastern quadrant. The
Dvorak classifications have decreased, and the initial intensity is
nudged downward to 40 kt.

Rose is moving northwestward at 17 kt. This general heading but
with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple
of days as the storm is steered by the flow on the southwest side of
a low- to mid-level ridge. By late this week and over the weekend,
a sharp turn to the north and then the northeast is expected as
Rose becomes embedded in the flow on the south side of a broad
deep-layer trough. Although there is some spread in the guidance,
the models all show the same general theme. The NHC track forecast
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

The environment is expected to become increasingly unfavorable for
Rose during the next several days with westerly shear increasing and
dry air expected to wrap into the circulation. These conditions
should promote a weakening trend, and the cyclone is forecast to
become a remnant low by the weekend when it should be over cooler
waters and in an environment of more than 30 kt of shear. Some of
the models suggest that Rose could become a remnant low or open into
a trough sooner than that, and if the current trend continues that
is a distinct possibility. The new forecast is largely an update of
the previous one, but does show the storm becoming a remnant low a
day earlier.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 21.0N 36.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 22.4N 37.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 23.8N 38.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 25.0N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 26.4N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 27.7N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 29.0N 40.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 30.7N 36.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/0600Z 32.8N 31.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 210836
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
500 AM AST Tue Sep 21 2021

...ROSE BEGINS TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 36.4W
ABOUT 880 MI...1420 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was
located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 36.4 West. Rose is
moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A slower
northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days
followed by a turn to the north.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued slow weakening is expected during the
next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 210836
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021
0900 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 36.4W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 36.4W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 36.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.4N 37.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.8N 38.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.0N 39.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 26.4N 40.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.7N 41.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.0N 40.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 30.7N 36.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 32.8N 31.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 36.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 210245
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021

Although Rose's convective pattern does not appear to be as
organized as it was earlier today, a couple of ASCAT overpasses this
evening indicated that the tropical cyclone has strengthened since
this morning. Both ASCAT-A and -B instruments detected 40-45 kt
winds around the southeastern portion of the circulation, and the
initial intensity was raised to 45 kt around 0000 UTC with the
issuance of a Tropical Cyclone Update. That intensity is maintained
for this advisory, and it is also in agreement with subjective
Dvorak data T-numbers of 3.0 from TAFB and SAB.

The ASCAT data also indicated that the center of Rose is located to
the west of the previous estimates, near the northwestern edge of
the convective mass noted in satellite imagery. As a result of the
center re-location, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain
320/13 kt. Although the short-term portion of the track forecast
has been adjusted westward due to the more westward initial
position, there has been no overall change in forecast track
reasoning for this advisory. Rose should continue northwestward
around the western portion of a strong subtropical ridge during the
next couple of days. Beyond that time, a mid- to upper-level trough
over the north-central Atlantic should cause Rose to recurve
northward, then northeastward, and finally east-northeastward by the
end of the forecast period. The dynamical models are in general
agreement on this scenario but there are some differences in how
sharp Rose will turn, and how fast it will move northeastward late
in the period. The new NHC track forecast shows a somewhat sharper
turn than the previous advisory to be closer to the latest consensus
aids.

Rose has likely reached its peak intensity as increasing shear and
the entrainment of drier mid-level air are likely to cause weakening
by this time tomorrow. Additional weakening is expected after that
time as a further increase in shear is anticipated when Rose nears
the aforementioned trough in 2 to 3 days. The updated NHC wind speed
forecast is slightly stronger at 12 and 24 hours due to the higher
initial intensity, but is unchanged after that time. Given the
expected hostile environmental conditions, it would not be
surprising to see Rose wither more quickly and degenerate into a
remnant low sooner than indicated below. That is indicated by at
least some of the global model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 18.9N 35.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 20.5N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 22.2N 37.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 23.5N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 24.8N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 26.1N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 27.3N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 29.0N 38.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 30.5N 33.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 210245
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021

...ROSE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 35.4W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 35.4 West. Rose is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next
couple of days. Rose is forecast to turn north-northwestward to
northward on Thursday.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds
are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is anticipated overnight. Gradual weakening is expected to
begin on Tuesday, and should continue during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 210245
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021
0300 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 35.4W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 35.4W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 35.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N 36.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.2N 37.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.5N 38.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.8N 39.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.1N 40.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.3N 40.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N 38.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 30.5N 33.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 35.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 210032
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Rose Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
830 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021

...ROSE A LITTLE STRONGER...

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds
in Rose are now near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The data
also suggests that the center of Rose is slightly west of the
previous forecast track. These changes will be reflected in the
11 PM AST (0300 UTC) advisory package.

SUMMARY OF 830 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 35.0W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 202033
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
500 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021

Satellite images show that Rose hasn't changed much during the past
several hours, with the center on the northern side of the cloud
shield. The last microwave pass from a few hours ago showed that
the mid- and low-level centers of the cyclone remained 60-90 n mi
apart, which is probably a sign that it isn't strengthening. The
initial wind speed remains 35 kt based on continuity, and hopefully
scatterometer data will be available for the next advisory due to
the recent high bias of the conventional satellite estimates.

The window for strengthening of the tropical cyclone is closing soon
due to increasing shear and likely intrusions of dry mid-level air.
These factors should cause the storm to start a weakening trend
sometime tomorrow. The long-term future of Rose doesn't look golden
either due to further increasing shear from an incoming upper- level
trough. The new forecast is just a shade lower than the previous
one, near the model consensus, with Rose likely sinking to a
depression in a few days and degenerating to a remnant low by day 5.

The initial motion remains northwestward at about 14 kt. Rose is
is likely to continue moving in that general direction during
the next couple of days around the southwestern and western
periphery of a strong subtropical ridge. Beyond that time,
guidance is coming into good agreement on a mid- to upper-level
trough over the north-central Atlantic causing the cyclone to
recurve to the north, northeast and even east-northeastward by
the weekend. While the models don't agree on how sharp of a
turn will occur, they are at least consistent that this trough
will take the storm into a hostile environment and decay. The new
forecast is again adjusted well to northeast at long range, and
still might not be far enough to the east.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 18.4N 34.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 20.0N 35.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 21.8N 36.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 23.3N 37.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 24.5N 38.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 26.0N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 27.3N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 29.2N 38.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 31.5N 34.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 202031
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
500 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021

...ROSE RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 34.4W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 34.4 West. Rose is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next
couple of days. Rose will likely turn north-northwestward on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is anticipated today,
with weakening likely beginning on Tuesday and continuing through
midweek.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 202030
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021
2100 UTC MON SEP 20 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 34.4W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 34.4W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 34.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 35.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.8N 36.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.3N 37.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.5N 38.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 26.0N 39.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.3N 40.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 29.2N 38.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 31.5N 34.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 34.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 201447
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021

While a cursory look at visible satellite images would suggest Rose
is intensifying, other data show that it remains a sheared storm.
The low- and mid-level centers remain roughly 90 n mi apart
according to SSMIS microwave, and a 1038Z ASCAT-A scatterometer
pass showed no significant change in intensity overnight. The
current wind speed is kept at 35 kt, with a much heavier weight on
the 30-kt scatterometer pass than Dvorak estimates near 55 kt. This
is a good example of the value of the scatterometer which can tell
the forecaster much more about the surface winds that conventional
satellite estimates can miss (even if the data is possibly too low
with all the thunderstorm activity).

There are a lot of thorns in the way of Rose blossoming into a
stronger storm. Increasing shear and drier mid-level air are on
the way for tonight, competing against the somewhat warm SSTs.
Thus Rose has about a day to flower into a moderate tropical storm,
and no significant change was made to the short term forecast. At
longer range, stronger shear and dry air should pull the petals off
Rose one-by-one, causing the cyclone to slowly weaken. The new
forecast is similar to the previous one, with some small 5-kt
downward adjustments. Rose could even shrivel up into a remnant
low by day 5, but that's not shown yet in the forecast.

The initial motion remains northwestward at about 14 kt. Rose is
still expected to move generally northwestward around the
southwestern and western periphery of a strong subtropical ridge
during the next few days. Around day 3, however, a mid- to
upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic is forecast to
dig southeastward, causing the cyclone to turn northward and
eventually northeastward by the weekend. Guidance is in much
better agreement on this scenario than the last cycle (though
there are still some westward model solutions), and the new NHC
track forecast is shifted northeastward at long range.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 17.3N 33.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 19.0N 34.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 21.0N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 22.6N 37.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 24.1N 38.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 25.4N 39.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 26.7N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 29.0N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 31.0N 38.0W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 201443
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021

...ROSE MIGHT NOT BLOOM INTO A MUCH STRONGER STORM ...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 33.4W
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 33.4 West. Rose is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion with a slower forward speed is expected over the
next few days.

Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain
near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength
is forecast during the next couple of days, and Rose could weaken
into a tropical depression by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 201442
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021
1500 UTC MON SEP 20 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 33.4W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 33.4W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 33.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 34.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 36.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N 37.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.1N 38.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.4N 39.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.7N 40.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.0N 40.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 31.0N 38.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 33.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 200859
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021

Rose remains a sheared tropical storm with the low-level center
located near the eastern edge of the convective cloud mass based on
an earlier 0359Z AMSR2 microwave overpass. These same data also
revealed that a well-defined mid-level circulation center was
located about 80-90 nmi west of the low-level center, an indication
of the magnitude and effect of the mid-level shear impinging on the
cyclone. The intensity of 35 kt is being maintained for this
advisory based on subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of
35 from both TAFB and SAB. Objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are
higher at 45-55 kt, which are considered to be unrepresentative due
to the severe westward tilt of Rose's vortex column.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 315/13 kt. Rose is
expected to move generally northwestward around the southwestern and
western periphery of a strong subtropical ridge during the next few
days. By day 4 and beyond, a mid- to upper-level trough over the
north-central Atlantic is forecast to dig southeastward, causing the
cyclone to turn northward. The latest NHC model guidance remains in
excellent agreement on this track scenario through 72 hours, but
then diverge significantly thereafter owing to whether Rose weakens
to shallow system or remains a little stringer and deeper. The
weaker solutions go more toward the northwest and the stronger
solutions take Rose northeastward. The NHC forecast track on days 4
and 5 is a blend of these two extremes.

Rose only has about 24 hours over warm waters and in a weak vertical
wind shear regime that will allow for some addition strengthening to
occur. On days 2-5, however, increasing westerly shear is expected
to induce some gradual weakening. Rose is forecast to weaken to a
tropical depression by 96 hours, although some of the models suggest
that weakening could occur faster than indicated below, and that
Rose could degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the forecast
period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 15.9N 32.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 17.5N 33.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 19.8N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 21.7N 36.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 23.0N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 24.2N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 25.2N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 27.3N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 29.2N 40.6W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 200842
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021

...ROSE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 32.6W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 32.6 West. Rose is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion
at a slightly slower forward speed is forecast over the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening will be possible today. By Tuesday, however,
upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive, and Rose is
forecast to begin a slow weakening trend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 200842
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021
0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 32.6W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 32.6W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 32.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.5N 33.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N 35.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.7N 36.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.0N 37.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.2N 38.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.2N 39.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 27.3N 41.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 29.2N 40.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 32.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 200250
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021

The center of Rose has been very difficult to locate in infrared
satellite imagery this evening. However, an earlier ASCAT-A overpass
as well as an SSMIS microwave image from around of the time of the
previous advisory were both helpful in establishing the initial
position, motion, and intensity of the tropical cyclone. Rose's
center is located on the eastern edge of the main convective mass
due to some southeasterly shear. The ASCAT ambiguity data revealed
an area of 30-35 kt winds around the southeastern portion of the
circulation, so the wind speed remains 35 kt for this advisory.
This is also in agreement with subjective Dvorak T-numbers of T2.5
form both SAB and TAFB.

The ASCAT data indicated that Rose is located slightly west of the
earlier estimates, and the initial motion estimate is now
northwestward or 320/14 kt. The cyclone is forecast to move
generally northwestward during the next several days around the
southwestern and western portions of a subtropical ridge located
over the far eastern Atlantic. After day 4, a strong mid- to
upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic should cause
Rose to turn northward. The dynamical models are in reasonably
good agreement through about 60-72 hours, but there is growing
east-to-west (cross-track) spread after that time. The NHC track
forecast is not too different from the previous advisory, and lies
close to the various consensus models in deference to the
increasing model spread late in the period.

Rose has about 24 hours over warm waters and in low vertical wind
shear conditions in which to strengthen, and the new NHC intensity
forecast for that time is unchanged from before. After 24 hours,
increasing westerly shear is likely to result in some gradual
weakening. A further increase in shear is anticipated by day 3 as
Rose approaches the aforementioned trough. This is likely to result
in additional weakening, and Rose is forecast to weaken to a
tropical depression by day 4. Some of the global model guidance
suggests that weakening could occur faster than indicated below, and
it is possible that Rose will degenerate into a remnant low by the
end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 15.3N 31.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 16.9N 32.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 18.9N 34.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 20.9N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 22.6N 36.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 23.9N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 25.0N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 27.1N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 29.0N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 200249
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021
0300 UTC MON SEP 20 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 31.1W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 31.1W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 30.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.9N 32.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.9N 34.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.9N 35.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N 36.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.9N 37.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 38.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 27.1N 40.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N 40.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 31.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 200249
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021

...ROSE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 31.1W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was
located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 31.1 West. Rose is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A slightly
slower northwestward motion is forecast over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast through Monday. By Tuesday,
upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive, and Rose is
forecast to begin a slow weakening trend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 192039
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
800 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021

Satellite images show that deep convection has increased in
coverage near the low-level center during the last 6 hours, while
the overall structure of the tropical cyclone has also improved.
Based on the improved organization and consensus T-2.5 numbers from
TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is set to 35 kt, making Rose
the seventeenth named storm of the busy 2021 Atlantic hurricane
season. Only 2005 and 2020 have had the seventeenth named storm on
an earlier date.

The 12-hour motion is north-northwest, or 330/14. However, Rose
appears to be moving more in a northwest direction during the past
few hours. This is probably the start of a northwest motion
that should continue through day 4 as the system moves along the
southwestern and western periphery of a subtropical ridge that
extends from Africa across the Cabo Verde Islands. A turn to the
north is predicted in about 5 days, as Rose comes under the
influence of a strong mid-level trough approaching from the
northwest. No significant changes were made to the previous track
forecast.

Environmental conditions are conducive for strengthening during the
next day or so, with low wind shear, SSTs near 27C, and sufficient
mid-level atmospheric moisture. Therefore, a little more
strengthening is shown compared to the previous NHC forecast. The
new NHC forecast is in agreement with the various consensus aids,
but slightly below the SHIPS model, in deference to the global
models which show a weaker cyclone. Westerly wind shear will
likely increase in about 36 hours as a strong upper-level trough
approaches from the northwest. Given that the cyclone is forecast
to remain rather small, it will likely be vulnerable to the higher
shear so weakening is forecast in the 36-72 h time period. Beyond
day 3, a further increase in wind shear is expected to cause Rose to
weaken to a tropical depression. Although not explicitly forecast,
it is possible that the cyclone could become a remnant low in 4-5
days if the shear is too much for the system to handle.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 14.3N 29.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 15.9N 31.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 17.9N 33.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 20.0N 34.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 22.0N 36.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 23.5N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 24.7N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 26.7N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 28.7N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 192037
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
800 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021

...ROSE BECOMES THE SEVENTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE BUSY 2021
HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 29.9W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 29.9 West. Rose is
moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion
toward the northwest is forecast to begin by tonight and continue
through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected through Monday.
By Tuesday, environmental conditions are expected to become less
conducive, and Rose is forecast to begin a slow weakening trend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 192034
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021
2100 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 29.9W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 29.9W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 29.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.9N 31.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.9N 33.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 34.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 36.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.5N 37.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.7N 38.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 26.7N 40.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 28.7N 41.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 29.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/BLAKE

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