Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JIMENA-21
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.





Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 070235
TCDCP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jimena Discussion Number 17
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP092021
500 PM HST Fri Aug 06 2021

Deep convection near center of Jimena collapsed overnight, and
Jimena consists of a low cloud swirl with shallow convection
flaring along its northern and eastern flanks. Dvorak current
intensity estimates varied from 1.5 at HFO to unclassifiable at SAB,
while CIMSS ADT held onto a 2.0/30 kt. Jimena is moving over sub 24C
sea surface temperatures as it draws in dry air from the north, and
westerly vertical wind shear of more than 15 kt is increasing.
Given its current structure and the hostile environment ahead,
Jimena has been downgraded to a post-tropical remnant low with an
initial intensity of 30 kt.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jimena will continue to be steered toward the
west-northwest (295 degrees) around 7 kt tonight by a deep
subtropical ridge to the north. Under an environment of cool sea
surface temperatures and continued westerly vertical wind shear,
the increasingly shallow system will move toward the west this
weekend until dissipation.

This is the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center on Jimena. Additional information on this system can be
found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service in Honolulu under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP and WMO header
FZPN40 PHFO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 17.9N 140.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 07/1200Z 18.5N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/0000Z 18.9N 143.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/1200Z 19.2N 144.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Wroe

>

Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 070233
TCMCP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092021
0300 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 140.8W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 140.8W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 140.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.5N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.9N 143.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.2N 144.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 140.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON JIMENA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HFOHSFNP...AND WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER WROE



>

Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 070232
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Jimena Advisory Number 17
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP092021
500 PM HST Fri Aug 06 2021

...JIMENA BECOMES A POST TROPICAL LOW FAR EAST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 140.8W
ABOUT 945 MI...1515 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jimena
was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 140.8 West. The
post-tropical low is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west is expected Saturday and
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The post-tropical low will gradually weaken over the next two days
and is expected to dissipate on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center on Jimena. Additional information on the
post-tropical low can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS head HFOHSFNP, WMO header
FZPN40 PHFO, and on the web at https://www.weather.gov/hfo/HSFNP

$$
Forecaster Wroe


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 062200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (JIMENA) WARNING NR 016
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (JIMENA) WARNING NR 016
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 09E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 17.5N 139.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 139.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.2N 141.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.8N 142.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.1N 143.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.2N 145.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
062200Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 140.2W.
06AUG21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (JIMENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
885 NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z
IS 10 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (HILDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 062032
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Jimena Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021

During the last 6 hours, deep convection associated with Jimena has
waned. A recently arriving 1756 UTC ASCAT pass revealed peak
believable winds of around 30 kt. The latest Dvorak T- and
CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB have also decreased, and these
data support lowering the initial intensity to 30 kt. Jimena is
currently moving over SSTs near 24C and into a more stable air mass.
In addition, westerly shear will increase along the cyclone's path
during the next 12 hours. These factors should cause continued
weakening, and Jimena is expected to degenerate into a remnant low
by late tonight or early Saturday.

The initial motion estimate is 295/7 kt. The west-northwestward
motion is forecast to continue for another day or so, followed by a
gradual bend to the west as Jimena weakens and is steered by the
low-level trade wind flow. The new track forecast is slightly to
the south of the previous NHC advisory, and is in best agreement
with the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.

Jimena is crossing into the central Pacific basin, and this will be
the final NHC advisory on this system. Future information on Jimena
can be found in Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center beginning at 0300 UTC under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP2
and WMO header WTPA22 PHFO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 17.6N 140.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 18.2N 141.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/1800Z 18.8N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/0600Z 19.1N 143.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/1800Z 19.2N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 062031
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Jimena Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021

...JIMENA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 140.0W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Jimena
was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 140.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday
morning. A turn toward the west is forecast to occur by late
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during
the next couple of days, and Jimena is expected to degenerate
into a remnant low later today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Jimena. Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
beginning at 500 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2, WMO header
WTPA32 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at
hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Brown/Hagen


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 062031
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021
2100 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 140.0W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 140.0W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 139.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.2N 141.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.8N 142.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.1N 143.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.2N 145.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 140.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON JIMENA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP2 ...WMO HEADER
WTPA22 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/HAGEN



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 061600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (JIMENA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (JIMENA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 17.3N 139.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 139.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.0N 140.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 18.7N 141.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.2N 143.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 19.5N 144.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.6N 146.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
061600Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 139.5W.
06AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 09E (JIMENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 927
NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062200Z, 070400Z, 071000Z AND 071600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (HILDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 061437
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
500 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021

A convective mass continues to persist over the center of Jimena,
although coldest cloud tops have warmed over the past few hours.
A fortuitous 1105 UTC AMSR-2 pass shows the center a bit west of
the earlier estimates, which places it beneath the coldest
remaining cloud tops. The intensity is held at 35 kt based on a
blend of Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB, SAB and ADT. This
intensity is also supported by overnight ASCAT data and a more
recent ship observation. Jimena is currently moving over SSTs near
24C. Going forward, westerly shear will increase along the
cyclone's path during the next 12-24 hr. These factors should cause
the tropical cyclone to weaken, and Jimena is expected to degenerate
into a remnant low by Saturday morning. The NHC intensity forecast
is in good agreement with the SHIPS and HCCA guidance.

The initial motion estimate is 300/8 kt. As Jimena weakens, the
increasingly shallow system is expected to be steered by the
low-level trade-wind flow, which should cause it to gradually turn
toward the west in about 48 hours. The ECMWF is a little faster and
lies on the southwest side of the guidance envelope, while the GFS
is slower and northeast of the consensus. The NHC forecast was
adjusted to the southwest of the previous forecast during the
first 12-24 hours based on the farther west initial position.
Thereafter, the track is close to the previous forecast, and in
best agreement with the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 17.5N 139.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 18.0N 140.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 18.7N 141.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/0000Z 19.2N 143.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/1200Z 19.5N 144.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 09/0000Z 19.6N 146.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 061436
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jimena Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
500 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021

...JIMENA STILL A TROPICAL STORM...
...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 139.3W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jimena was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 139.3 West. Jimena is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general is expected to continue during the next day or so. A turn
toward the west is forecast to occur Saturday night or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Jimena is expected to degenerate into a remnant low Saturday
morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Hagen


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 061436
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021
1500 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 139.3W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 139.3W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 139.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.0N 140.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.7N 141.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.2N 143.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.5N 144.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.6N 146.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 139.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/HAGEN



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 061000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (JIMENA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (JIMENA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 17.1N 138.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 138.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.8N 139.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.5N 140.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.0N 142.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.3N 143.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.5N 145.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
061000Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 138.5W.
06AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 09E (JIMENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 985
NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061600Z, 062200Z, 070400Z AND 071000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (HILDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 060837
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021

Convection associated with Jimena has diminished some during the
past few hours. However, recently-received ASCAT data showed 35 kt
winds in a small area to the northwest of the center. Based mainly
on this data, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. The storm is
moving over cooler sea-surface temperatures, and that, along with
increasing shear and a drier airmass, should cause the cyclone to
decay into a remnant low by the 36 h point. The new intensity
forecast follows the trend of the guidance and has only minor
adjustments from the previous forecast.

The initial motion is northwestward or 310/7 kt. As Jimena weakens,
the increasingly shallow system is expected to be steered by the
low-level trade-wind flow, which should cause it to turn gradually
to the west-northwest. The new official forecast has little change
from the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 17.2N 138.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 17.8N 139.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 18.5N 140.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 19.0N 142.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0600Z 19.3N 143.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/1800Z 19.5N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 060836
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jimena Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021

...SATELLITE WIND DATA SHOWS JIMENA IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 138.2W
ABOUT 1120 MI...1800 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jimena was
located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 138.2 West. Jimena is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) A gradual turn
to the west-northwest is expected during the next day or two.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is forecast during the next 6-12 hours. However, steady
weakening is forecast after that and Jimena is expected to
degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 060836
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021
0900 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 138.2W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 138.2W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 138.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.8N 139.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.5N 140.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.0N 142.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.3N 143.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.5N 145.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 138.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 060401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 15.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.08.2021 0 14.1N 15.4W 1014 23
1200UTC 06.08.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 131.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.08.2021 0 21.7N 131.7W 1010 30
1200UTC 06.08.2021 12 22.4N 133.7W 1014 24
0000UTC 07.08.2021 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 138.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.08.2021 0 16.5N 138.0W 1006 33
1200UTC 06.08.2021 12 17.1N 139.5W 1006 37
0000UTC 07.08.2021 24 17.7N 140.9W 1008 32
1200UTC 07.08.2021 36 18.3N 142.4W 1009 30
0000UTC 08.08.2021 48 18.6N 143.7W 1011 26
1200UTC 08.08.2021 60 18.9N 145.1W 1012 23
0000UTC 09.08.2021 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 16.0N 117.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.08.2021 144 16.0N 117.8W 1004 30


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060400

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 060400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (JIMENA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (JIMENA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 16.7N 137.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 137.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.5N 138.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.2N 140.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 18.7N 141.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.0N 143.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 19.4N 144.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060400Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 137.9W.
06AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 09E (JIMENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1019
NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061000Z, 061600Z, 062200Z AND 070400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (HILDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 060231
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
500 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021

Jimena is approaching the Central Pacific basin. The compact
tropical storm has generally changed little during the past several
hours, and it continues to have curved bands that wrap across the
western half of the circulation. The Dvorak classifications from
TAFB, SAB, and the University of Wisconsin range from 35 to 45 kt.
The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, but Jimena could be a little
stronger. Unfortunately, all of the ASCAT passes missed the system
earlier today, but new data from the instrument may be available
tonight.

The storm continues to move northwestward at about 6 kt. A gradual
turn to the left, or toward the west, is expected during the
next few days as the storm loses deep convection and is steered
primarily by the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast
has been adjusted to the south of the previous one, trending toward
the latest guidance.

Jimena has now crossed the 26 C isotherm and is expected to move
over progressively cooler waters during the next couple of days.
These cool waters combined with a drier airmass and an increase in
shear should cause steady weakening. Jimena is expected to become a
remnant low by 36 hours and dissipate in a few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 16.9N 137.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 17.5N 138.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 18.2N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 18.7N 141.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0000Z 19.0N 143.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/1200Z 19.4N 144.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 060231
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jimena Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
500 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021

...JIMENA NEARING THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 137.8W
ABOUT 1150 MI...1850 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jimena was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 137.8 West. Jimena is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A gradual turn
to the west-northwest is expected during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12 hours.
However, steady weakening is forecast after that and Jimena is
expected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 060230
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021
0300 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 137.8W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 137.8W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 137.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 138.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.2N 140.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.7N 141.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.0N 143.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.4N 144.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 137.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 052200
WARNING ATCG MIL 09E NEP 210805205009
2021080518 09E JIMENA 012 02 310 07 SATL 030
T000 162N 1373W 035 R034 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 170N 1384W 035 R034 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 179N 1397W 030
T036 188N 1411W 030
T048 197N 1425W 025
T060 202N 1439W 025
AMP
048HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
060HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 09E (JIMENA) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (JIMENA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 16.2N 137.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 137.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 17.0N 138.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.9N 139.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.8N 141.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.7N 142.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.2N 143.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
052200Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 137.7W.
05AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 09E (JIMENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1037 NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060400Z, 061000Z, 061600Z
AND 062200Z. FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0921072512 137N1116W 15
0921072518 137N1124W 15
0921072600 136N1130W 15
0921072606 135N1135W 15
0921072612 133N1140W 20
0921072618 132N1147W 20
0921072700 131N1155W 20
0921072706 130N1161W 20
0921072712 128N1166W 20
0921072718 125N1169W 20
0921072800 125N1175W 25
0921072806 130N1184W 25
0921072812 134N1190W 25
0921072818 137N1199W 25
0921072900 137N1210W 30
0921072906 136N1220W 30
0921072912 134N1226W 30
0921072918 132N1233W 30
0921073000 130N1238W 30
0921073006 127N1244W 30
0921073012 125N1250W 30
0921073018 124N1256W 25
0921073100 122N1263W 25
0921073106 120N1269W 25
0921073112 120N1276W 25
0921073118 115N1280W 25
0921080100 115N1275W 25
0921080106 118N1270W 25
0921080112 122N1272W 25
0921080118 122N1278W 25
0921080200 122N1286W 25
0921080206 123N1296W 25
0921080212 126N1302W 25
0921080218 128N1311W 30
0921080300 130N1319W 30
0921080306 133N1326W 30
0921080312 135N1331W 30
0921080318 136N1336W 30
0921080400 136N1343W 30
0921080406 137N1348W 30
0921080412 140N1352W 30
0921080418 144N1356W 30
0921080500 149N1360W 30
0921080506 153N1364W 30
0921080512 157N1368W 35
0921080518 162N1373W 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 052032
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 05 2021

Jimena's cloud pattern, which has changed little since earlier this
morning, consists of a fragmented curved band in the northwestern
semicircle and a patch of deep convection just to the southeast of
the surface center. The subjective Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB remain unchanged (T2.5) and the initial
intensity is held at 35 kt.

Jimena has about another 12 hours or so before it traverses
decreasing (sub-25C) sea-surface temperatures, and the surrounding
environment becomes less favorable due to an intruding dry and
stable air mass. Increasing west-northwesterly shear is also
expected to negatively affect the cyclone beyond the 36 hour period.
The official intensity forecast, which is similar to the IVCN
intensity consensus model, indicates Jimena becoming a depression
in about 24 hours and further weakening to a remnant low on
Saturday, and opening up into a trough of low pressure on Sunday.

The initial motions is estimated to be northwest, or 310/7 kt. A
mid-tropospheric ridge situated to the northeast of the cyclone
should keep Jimena moving toward the northwest through the 48
period. Afterward, a turn toward the west-northwest is forecast as
the vertically shallow system is steered by the low-level
environmental flow. The NHC track forecast, once again, follows
the TVCN consensus aid closely, and is similar to the previous
advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 16.4N 137.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 17.0N 138.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 17.9N 139.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 18.8N 141.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 19.7N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/0600Z 20.2N 143.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 052031
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jimena Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 05 2021

...JIMENA EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 137.6W
ABOUT 1855 MI...2980 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jimena was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 137.6 West. Jimena is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Afterward, Jimena is expected to become a depression on Friday and
degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 052031
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021
2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 137.6W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 137.6W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 137.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.0N 138.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.9N 139.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.8N 141.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.7N 142.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.2N 143.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 137.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 051602

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 05.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 11.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.08.2021 0 13.4N 11.0W 1015 15
0000UTC 06.08.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 129.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.08.2021 0 20.9N 129.7W 1006 37
0000UTC 06.08.2021 12 21.5N 131.7W 1010 28
1200UTC 06.08.2021 24 22.0N 133.3W 1014 24
0000UTC 07.08.2021 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 136.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.08.2021 0 15.8N 136.6W 1006 29
0000UTC 06.08.2021 12 16.7N 137.8W 1007 32
1200UTC 06.08.2021 24 17.4N 139.2W 1007 36
0000UTC 07.08.2021 36 18.0N 141.0W 1008 32
1200UTC 07.08.2021 48 18.0N 142.9W 1010 24
0000UTC 08.08.2021 60 18.3N 143.9W 1012 23
1200UTC 08.08.2021 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 14.1N 26.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.08.2021 60 14.7N 27.2W 1013 23
1200UTC 08.08.2021 72 15.5N 29.8W 1012 25
0000UTC 09.08.2021 84 16.5N 32.6W 1013 25
1200UTC 09.08.2021 96 17.4N 35.6W 1013 26
0000UTC 10.08.2021 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 17.2N 42.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.08.2021 120 17.2N 42.4W 1012 30
0000UTC 11.08.2021 132 19.2N 43.7W 1012 30
1200UTC 11.08.2021 144 22.2N 46.2W 1010 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 16.4N 117.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.08.2021 132 16.4N 117.4W 1006 25
1200UTC 11.08.2021 144 16.7N 119.6W 1006 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 14.5N 103.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.08.2021 144 14.5N 104.6W 1006 36


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 051602

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 051602

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 11.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.08.2021 13.4N 11.0W WEAK
00UTC 06.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 129.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.08.2021 20.9N 129.7W WEAK
00UTC 06.08.2021 21.5N 131.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.08.2021 22.0N 133.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 136.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.08.2021 15.8N 136.6W WEAK
00UTC 06.08.2021 16.7N 137.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.08.2021 17.4N 139.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.08.2021 18.0N 141.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.08.2021 18.0N 142.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.08.2021 18.3N 143.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 14.1N 26.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.08.2021 14.7N 27.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 08.08.2021 15.5N 29.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2021 16.5N 32.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2021 17.4N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 17.2N 42.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.08.2021 17.2N 42.4W WEAK
00UTC 11.08.2021 19.2N 43.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2021 22.2N 46.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 16.4N 117.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.08.2021 16.4N 117.4W WEAK
12UTC 11.08.2021 16.7N 119.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 14.5N 103.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.08.2021 14.5N 104.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 051602

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 051600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (JIMENA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (JIMENA) WARNING NR 011
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 15.7N 136.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 136.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.5N 137.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.5N 138.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.5N 140.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.5N 141.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.3N 142.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 20.9N 144.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 137.0W.
05AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 09E (JIMENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1078
NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND 061600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (HILDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 051437
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
500 AM HST Thu Aug 05 2021

Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Jimena's cloud pattern
has changed little during the past several hours, although most
recently, enhanced infrared images show some warming of the cloud
tops just west of the center. Timely AMSR-2 and GMI passive
microwave color composite images revealed a well-developed banding
feature wrapping around the surface center from the north and west
portions of the cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt and
is in agreement with the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB.

The large-scale models and the statistical-dynamical SHIPS intensity
guidance (GFS/ECMWF) show that the previously noted period of
conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions should be ending soon.
By the 36-hour period, sub-25C sea-surface temperatures and a
gradually stabilizing/drier surrounding air mass should cause Jimena
to weaken. Guidance also shows increasing west-northwesterly shear
beyond 48 hours. Accordingly, the NHC forecast calls for Jimena to
weaken to a depression by mid-period, and degenerate into a remnant
low in 60 hours.

Based on the aforementioned microwave images, the initial motion is
estimated to be northwestward, or 315/6 kt. A subtropical ridge
anchored to the northeast of the cyclone is forecast to steer Jimena
toward the northwest through the 48 period. Afterward, a turn
toward the west-northwest is expected as the vertically shallow
system is influenced more by the easterly tradewinds. The official
forecast is basically an update of the previous one and lies near
the multi-model consensus (TVCN) aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 16.1N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 16.5N 137.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 17.5N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 18.5N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 19.5N 141.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 20.3N 142.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1200Z 20.9N 144.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 051436
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jimena Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
500 AM HST Thu Aug 05 2021

...JIMENA CONTINUES ON A NORTHWESTWARD HEADING...
...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 137.2W
ABOUT 1835 MI...2955 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jimena was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 137.2 West. Jimena is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Afterward, Jimena is expected to become a depression by Friday
evening and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low early
Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 051433
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021
1500 UTC THU AUG 05 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 137.2W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 137.2W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 136.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.5N 137.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 138.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.5N 140.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.5N 141.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.3N 142.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.9N 144.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 137.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 051000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (JIMENA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (JIMENA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 15.3N 136.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 136.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.2N 137.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 17.1N 138.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 18.0N 139.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.0N 140.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.0N 142.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.0N 143.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.0N 147.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
051000Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 136.7W.
05AUG21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (JIMENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1101 NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051600Z, 052200Z, 060400Z AND 061000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (HILDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 050835
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021

Deep convection has increased near the center of the cyclone during
the last several hours, and an outer convective band is present in
the southeastern semicircle. Subjective satellite intensity
estimates are 35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the CIMSS satellite
consensus estimate is 39 kt. Based on these data, the system is
upgraded to Tropical Storm Jimena with 35-kt winds.

The initial motion is 315/6 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast
of the tropical cyclone is forecast to continue for the next 2-3
days, and this should keep Jimena moving generally northwestward.
After that time, a west-northwestward motion is expected as the
weakening system is steered more by the low-level flow. The track
guidance models have shifted a bit to the right since the previous
advisory. Therefore, the official forecast will also be nudged to
the right. However, the new forecast track still lies to the left
of the consensus models.

While Jimena is in a moist and low-shear environment, the storm is
moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, with the center
forecast to be over 25 C water in about 24 h. Thus, little
additional strengthening is expected. After 24 h, the system
should weaken due to even colder SSTs and increasing shear. The
new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous
forecast, and it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 15.5N 136.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 16.2N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 17.1N 138.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 18.0N 139.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 19.0N 140.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 20.0N 142.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 21.0N 143.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0600Z 22.0N 147.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 050834
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jimena Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM JIMENA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 136.6W
ABOUT 1810 MI...2915 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jimena was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 136.6 West. Jimena is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.
After that time, Jimena is expected to weaken as it moves over
cooler waters.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 050834
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021
0900 UTC THU AUG 05 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 136.6W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 136.6W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 136.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.2N 137.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.1N 138.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.0N 139.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.0N 140.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.0N 142.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.0N 143.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 22.0N 147.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 136.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 050240
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
500 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021

The system has not become noticeably better organized since earlier
today, with a small area of deep convection near the center and
some slightly curved bands of convection well removed to the east
and northeast of the center. Microwave imagery also suggests
little change in structure. The current intensity is held at
30 kt for now, in agreement with earlier scatterometer
observations.

Although the center fixes have some scatter, my best estimate for
motion is slowly northwestward, or 325/6 kt. A mid-level ridge to
the northeast of the tropical cyclone is forecast to be maintained
for the next 48-72 hours. This should keep the system on a
generally northwestward heading until late in the forecast period.
By that time, the weakening cyclone should turn a little to the left
following the low-level environmental winds. The official track
forecast is similar to the previous one and just to the right of
the multi-model consensus, in slight deference to the GFS solution
which is even farther to the right of these tracks.

Since the system should be in a fairly moist, low-shear environment
for the next day or so, at least some slight strengthening seems
likely. Thereafter, cooler SSTs and increased shear should cause
weakening. The official intensity forecast is near or above most
of the model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 15.3N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 16.0N 136.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 16.9N 137.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 17.8N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 18.8N 140.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 19.8N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 20.5N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0000Z 22.0N 147.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 050239
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
500 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021

...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 136.2W
ABOUT 1790 MI...2885 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 136.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression could become a tropical storm tonight, but weakening
is forecast to begin late Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 050238
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021
0300 UTC THU AUG 05 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 136.2W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 136.2W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 136.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 136.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.9N 137.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.8N 138.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.8N 140.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.8N 142.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.5N 143.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 147.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 136.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 042035
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 04 2021

Satellite images today indicate that the system has been maintaining
two hooking bands of convection to the north and south of the
center. In addition, scatterometer data shows a well-defined,
albeit a touch elongated, center and 30-kt winds. Thus, advisories
are being re-started on Tropical Depression Nine-E after a 3-day
hiatus, with an initial intensity of 30 kt.

The depression probably only has a few days as a tropical cyclone
again because SSTs begin to drop off in a day or so, along with
increasing shear and mid-level dry air. Nine-E does have a chance
to finally become a tropical storm in the meantime before
the aforementioned environmental conditions get less conducive on
Friday. The system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low
again this weekend (or sooner) as it encounters a very hostile
environment. The NHC wind speed forecast is close to the model
consensus, but is a smidge higher near peak intensity, owing to the
HCCA corrected-consensus guidance.

The depression has been moving slowly toward the north-northwest
today. A distant mid-level ridge to the northeast is providing the
steering for the cyclone. This ridge should strengthen somewhat
during the next few days, causing the depression to gradually turn
to the northwest on Thursday and continue that motion through late
week. Similar to a lot of forecasts this year, the GFS-based
guidance is on the right side of the track envelope while the ECMWF
and UKMET solutions lie on the left side. The official track
assumes that the GFS shows a bit too deep of a tropical cyclone, and
so the NHC prediction leans just west of the consensus throughout
the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 14.9N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 15.6N 136.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 16.5N 136.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 17.4N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 18.4N 139.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 19.5N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 20.5N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1800Z 21.5N 146.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 042031
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 04 2021

...DEPRESSION REGENERATES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE BASIN...
...COULD BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 135.7W
ABOUT 1770 MI...2850 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 135.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11
km/h). This general motion is expected today, followed by a turn
toward the northwest on Thursday and that northwestward motion
continuing through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression could become a tropical storm today or tomorrow
before weakening begins late Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 042031
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021
2100 UTC WED AUG 04 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 135.7W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 135.7W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 135.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.6N 136.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.5N 136.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.4N 138.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.4N 139.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.5N 141.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.5N 142.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 21.5N 146.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 135.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 010838
TCDEP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
1100 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021

The depression has remained poorly organized for more than 24 hours
and has produced a very limited amount of convection during that
time. As a result of the lack of organized deep convection over the
past day, the system no longer meets the definition of a tropical
cyclone, and it has degenerated into a remnant low. In addition,
the original low-level swirl that was tracked over the past day or
so appears to have been absorbed within the envelope of the broader
low pressure area. The system's initial intensity is maintained
at 25 kt, but this could be generous.

The depression has been plagued by shear and dry air entrainment,
and those conditions are expected to persist for at least the next
couple of days. If the system is able to survive past 72 hours,
there is some chance of redevelopment when the shear decreases
later in the period. However, given the uncertainty surrounding
the potential interaction with Hurricane Hilda located to the
cyclone's northeast, the official forecast calls for the system to
remain a remnant low, and this will be the final NHC advisory on
this system unless regeneration occurs.

The cyclone has been nearly stationary overnight, but it is
forecast to begin a slow westward to west-northwestward motion later
today, and that motion should continue for the next few days.
After that time, possible interaction with Hilda increases the track
forecast uncertainty, but since the majority of the dynamical
models keep the low on a west-northwestward heading, so does the
NHC forecast.

Future information on the remnant low can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

Information on potential regeneration will be available in the
Tropical Weather Outlook as needed.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 11.4N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 01/1800Z 11.8N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 02/0600Z 12.0N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/1800Z 12.3N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 03/0600Z 12.7N 132.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 03/1800Z 13.1N 134.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/0600Z 13.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0600Z 14.5N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0600Z 15.5N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 010838
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
1100 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021

...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 127.5W
ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Nine-E was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 127.5 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is stationary. A slow westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and
continue during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected over the next couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system unless regeneration occurs. For additional
information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO
header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 010837
TCMEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021
0900 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 127.5W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 127.5W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 127.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.8N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.0N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.3N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 12.7N 132.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.1N 134.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.5N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 14.5N 137.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 15.5N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 127.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND
WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 010241
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
500 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021

The tropical depression's classification as a tropical cyclone is in
doubt. It has not produced sustained organized deep convection for
over a day and is nearly devoid of even moderate convection at this
time. In addition, the surface wind field is poorly defined. A
prominent swirl noted in the previous forecast package moved quickly
southeastward and dissipated, leaving only a broad, elongated low
centered east of previous estimates. The most recent TAFB Dvorak fix
still supports an intensity of 25 kt.

If organized deep convection does not redevelop soon, the system
could become a remnant low or open into a trough at any time. Even
if the depression is able to maintain its status as a tropical
cyclone, the close proximity of rapidly intensifying Hilda to the
east will likely prevent it from strengthening during the next 72
h, and this is reflected in the new NHC intensity forecast. After
that time, Hilda is forecast to weaken, which could open a window
for intensification (or re-formation) late in the forecast period.
The official intensity forecast is now below the intensity consensus
at most forecast hours. It is worth noting that the operational
regional hurricane models do not capture storm-to-storm interactions
very well, and this is likely influencing the relatively high
intensity forecast produced by the HWRF.

The eastward adjustment of the initial position has necessitated a
large eastward shift in the forecast track based on the new center
position. Otherwise, the general reasoning behind the NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous advisory. A slow, westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next few days. Beyond
that time, differences regarding the specifics of any direct
interaction with Hilda is the primary source of uncertainty in the
track forecast. Confidence in the forecast, especially at that long
range, remains low. The NHC forecast is based primarily on a
consensus of the GFS and ECMWF global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 11.5N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 11.8N 128.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 12.0N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 12.2N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 12.5N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 12.9N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 13.5N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 14.5N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 15.5N 141.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 010237
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
500 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021

...STATIONARY DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY DISORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 127.5W
ABOUT 1400 MI...2255 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 127.5 West. Little
movement is expected overnight. A slow westward to
west-northwestward motion is anticipated beginning Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The
depression could become a remnant low or dissipate at any time
during the next three days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 010236
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021
0300 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 127.5W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 127.5W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 127.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.8N 128.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.0N 130.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.2N 131.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.5N 133.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 12.9N 134.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.5N 135.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 14.5N 138.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 15.5N 141.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 127.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 312039
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
1100 AM HST Sat Jul 31 2021

Visible and scatterometer satellite data continue to show depression
getting stretched further from west-to-east, with the surface
circulation now elliptical-shaped about 500 nmi long and 250 nmi
wide. A 1757Z ASCAT-B pass revealed an ill-defined low-level
circulation center and one 26-kt wind vector 60-70 nmi west of the
center. Unlike a few hours ago, deep convection has begun to wane
with cloud tops now warmer than -70 deg C. The intensity has been
held at 25 kt based on the ASCAT wind data and the overall poor
appearance in satellite imagery.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/04 kt. The
aforementioned ASCAT data suggest that either the center has
reformed farther to the southwest near a small burst of deep
convection, or that that feature is just a smaller swirl rotating
around the larger gyre envelope. Thus, the estimated center location
is an average between the previous center position and the small
center noted in the ASCAT data. Otherwise, there is no significant
change to the previous forecast tack or reasoning. After 72 hours,
the models remain is major disagreement on how much, if any, binary
interaction occurs between the depression and Tropical Storm Hilda,
located about 650 nmi to the east. The new 12Z GFS model remains
the most extreme and takes the depression northward on days 4 and
5, with the ECMWF again the weakest with little interaction with
Hilda. The remainder of the NHC track guidance lies somewhere in
between these two extremes. As in the previous advisory, the best
call for now is to punt by remaining close to the previous forecast
track, with the new official NHC track forecast still lying inside
the southern edge of the guidance envelope between the ECMWF
solution to the south and the consensus models farther north.

The depression's future intensity, and even its existence as a
tropical cyclone, depends heavily on the track over the next 120
hours. A more westward motion as per the ECMWF would keep the
cyclone over warmer water and in a more favorable upper-level
pattern, whereas a sharp northward motion like the GFS is predicting
would take the cyclone over cold SSTs below 25 deg C and into a
strong wind shear environment. Another negative factor continues to
be the west-to-east stretching of the depression's low-level wind
field caused by Tropical Storm Hilda's larger and stronger
circulation. As more of the southerly/southwesterly
cross-equatorial low-level inflow gets drawn away from the elongated
cyclone and into Hilda, most of the depression's inflow will be
cooler and drier air trade wind flow coming into the northern
semicircle, which would induce weakening. The previous intensity
forecast is being maintained for this advisory, which continues to
show little strengthening for the next 48 hours, followed by only
modest intensification thereafter. However, this remains a
low-confidence forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 11.6N 128.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 11.5N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 11.6N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 11.8N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 12.2N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 12.6N 134.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 13.0N 135.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 14.0N 138.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 15.4N 140.8W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 312038
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
1100 AM HST Sat Jul 31 2021

...POORLY DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION WOBBLING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 128.4W
ABOUT 1445 MI...2325 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 128.4 West. The
depression is moving slowly toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h).
Some erratic motion toward the west is possible for the next day or
so, followed by a slow west-northwestward motion on Monday and
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little if any intensification is expected today. However,
some slight strengthening is forecast on Sunday and Monday, and the
depression could become a tropical storm in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 312038
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021
2100 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 128.4W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 128.4W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 128.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.5N 129.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.6N 130.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.8N 131.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.2N 133.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 12.6N 134.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.0N 135.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 138.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 15.4N 140.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 128.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 311447
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021

The depression has become increasingly elongated west-to-east since
the previous advisory. Although deep convection has increased
somewhat near the center, with cloud tops now colder than -70C, the
convection isn't organized very well. The initial intensity is being
maintained at 25 kt until new ASCAT data arrives this afternoon.

The initial motion estimate is 270/04 kt. The latest NHC track
guidance is in decent agreement on the depression moving in a slow
westward direction for the next 24 hours or so, followed by a
west-northwestward motion as the ridge to north of the cyclone
weakens slightly. By around 72 hours, some binary interaction
between the depression and rapidly strengthening Tropical Storm
Hilda, located about 650 nmi to the east, is expected. However, the
degree of interaction varies widely among the models. The GFS is the
most extreme and takes the depression northward on days 4 and 5,
with the ECMWF being the weakest, showing little if any interaction
and keeps the cyclone moving generally westward through 120 h; the
other global and regional models lie somewhere in between these two
extremes. For now, the new official NHC track forecast was only
nudged slightly northward, and lies inside the southern edge of the
guidance envelope near the TVCE consensus model.

The depression's future intensity and existence depends heavily on
the track over the next 5 days. A more westward motion would keep
the cyclone over warmer water and in a better upper-level flow
regime. In contrast, a sharp northward motion, as per the GFS
solution, would place the system over colder water and within strong
vertical wind shear. Another negative factor is the effect of
intensifying Hilda to the east, which has started to draw in the
southerly/southwesterly cross-equatorial inflow away from TD-9E.
This deflection of the low-level flow eastward away from the
depression could result in the cyclone's cyclone getting stretched
out/elongated east-to-west even further, which would induce
weakening or even dissipation of the cyclone. For now, the previous
intensity forecast is being maintained for this advisory until the
track model guidance comes into better agreement, and the
interactive effects of Tropical Storm Hilda become clearer.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 12.1N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 12.1N 128.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 12.1N 129.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 12.3N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 12.5N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 12.8N 133.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 13.1N 135.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 13.8N 137.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 15.5N 139.9W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 311446
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021

...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION DAWDLING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 127.6W
ABOUT 1380 MI...2225 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 127.6 West. The
depression is moving slowly toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A
general westward motion with some increase in forward speed is
forecast during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little if any intensification is expected today. However, some
slight strengthening is forecast on Sunday and Monday, and the
depression could become a tropical storm in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 311446
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021
1500 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 127.6W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 127.6W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 127.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.1N 128.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.1N 129.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.3N 130.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.5N 132.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.8N 133.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.1N 135.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 13.8N 137.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 15.5N 139.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 127.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 310836
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021

The depression remains poorly organized this morning. Deep
convection remains limited, and recent scatterometer data show that
the circulation is elongated from east to west. The initial
intensity is maintained at 25 kt, which could be generous based on
the latest ASCAT data.

As mentioned in the previous advisory, the confidence in the track
and intensity forecast for the depression is quite low due to the
current lack of organization of the system, and the potential for
some interaction with Tropical Storm Hilda located to its
northeast. The ASCAT data was helpful in pinpointing the center
location overnight, and the latest fixes indicate that the cyclone
is moving just south of due west or 265/5 kt. The track guidance
generally agrees on a slow west or west-southwest heading over the
next 12-24 hours followed by a west or west-northwest motion
through 48-60 hours. After that time, the track guidance begins to
diverge with the GFS showing a binary interaction of the depression
and Hilda by days 4 and 5. Most of the remainder of the guidance
keeps enough separation between the systems that the depression
continues generally moving westward or west-northwestward through
the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is once
again close to the various multi-model consensus aids, and is
slightly slower than the previous official forecast.

Although the depression is located over warm water, moderate
easterly shear and dry air entrainment have prevented strengthening
since genesis occurred. Given the current poor organization of the
system and the marginal environment, only slow strengthening is
indicated over the next few days. Another plausible scenario is
that the system fails to produce organization deep convection
within the next 12 to 24 hours, and it degenerates into a broad low
pressure area along the ITCZ. Given this uncertainty, the NHC
intensity forecast has been lowered slightly and is in best
agreement with the IVCN intensity aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 12.3N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 12.2N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 12.1N 128.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 12.2N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 12.5N 131.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 12.8N 132.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 13.1N 134.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 13.7N 136.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 14.5N 138.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 310835
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021

...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 127.0W
ABOUT 1340 MI...2155 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 127.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A general
westward motion with some increase in forward speed is forecast
during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours, and
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm in a couple
of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 310835
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021
0900 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 127.0W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 127.0W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 126.8W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 12.2N 127.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.1N 128.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.2N 129.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.5N 131.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.8N 132.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.1N 134.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 13.7N 136.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 14.5N 138.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 127.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 310236
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
800 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021

The depression is struggling. Aside from a stray cell or two, the
cyclone has been nearly devoid of deep convection since the diurnal
convective minimum earlier this evening. AMSR data near 22Z
indicated that multiple weak swirls may be embedded within the
broader circulation sampled earlier today by ASCAT. The initial
intensity remains 25 kt for this advisory.

Confidence in the track forecast is unusually low. The initial
position, and therefore also the motion estimate, is highly
uncertain due to the disorganized nature of the depression. On top
of that, the track guidance is in extremely poor agreement regarding
even the basics of the future track of the cyclone. Hilda, located
relatively close to the east (about 10 degrees) may have some impact
on the depression's track during the next 5 days. In fact, the GFS
explicitly forecasts that a binary interaction will occur between
the two tropical cyclones. Other models like the ECMWF move both
systems steadily, and mostly independently, westward. As a course of
least regret, the NHC track forecast is close to the previous
advisory and multi-model consensus, between those two scenarios.
Large changes to the track forecast may be necessary on Saturday if
the track guidance begins to converge on a single solution.

Warm water and moderate shear could allow for some strengthening
during the next few days, if the depression can redevelop and
sustain organized convection. The NHC intensity forecast assumes
that will happen to some degree and has not been substantially
changed. It is also possible that dry air in the environment could
continue to inhibit convection as the depression moves westward.
In that case, the official intensity forecast could wind up being a
little too high. The NHC intensity forecast is well within the
guidance envelope, but is a touch above the latest consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 12.5N 126.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 12.4N 126.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 12.3N 127.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 12.4N 128.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 12.7N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 13.1N 131.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 13.4N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 13.8N 135.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 14.5N 138.9W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 310233
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
800 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 126.2W
ABOUT 1290 MI...2075 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 126.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A
generally westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed
is forecast during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is anticipated through early next week. The
cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm in a day or two.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 310233
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021
0300 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 126.2W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 126.2W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 126.0W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 12.4N 126.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.3N 127.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.4N 128.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.7N 130.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.1N 131.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.4N 133.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 13.8N 135.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 14.5N 138.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 126.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 302047 CCA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
200 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021

Corrected geographic reference in summary section.

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 125.8W
ABOUT 1275 MI...2050 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 125.8 West. The
depression is temporarily drifting toward the west-southwest near 5
mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the west with an increase in forward
speed is expected by Saturday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next several days and
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 302037
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
200 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021

An area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring during the
past several days over the eastern Pacific, has developed a
well-defined surface center, as indicated in a recent
scatterometer overpass, and has acquired sufficient organized
convection to be classified as a 25-kt tropical depression. The
northwesterly shear which has been curtailing genesis over the past
couple of days has diminished just enough to allow the system to
become better organized, particularly, in the east and south
portions of the cyclone.

The depression is embedded in weak easterly steering currents
created by a deep-layer cut-off low and associated trough situated
along 125W. As a result, the depression is temporarily drifting
west-southwestward, or 255/4 kt. Large-scale models indicate that
the cut-off feature will lift northward during the next 24-36 hours
allowing a mid-tropospheric ridge to build in over the eastern
Pacific. Accordingly, the cyclone should track generally westward
at an increased forward speed beyond mid period. The official
forecast follows suit and is based on a blend of the top forecast
track performers, HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and the
multi-model consensus TVCN.

Now that the shear is weakening and the upper tropospheric winds are
predicted to become more favorable, (easterly, and little more
diffluent) steady strengthening is expected while the cyclone
traverses deep, warm oceanic temperatures. The NHC intensity
forecast is near the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and
the IVCN intensity aid and is below the Decay-SHIPS
statistical-dynamical guidance beyond the 72-hour period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 12.3N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 12.0N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 11.7N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 11.7N 127.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 11.8N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 12.1N 131.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 12.5N 132.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 13.2N 135.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 13.9N 138.9W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 302034
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
200 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 125.8W
ABOUT 8620 MI...**** KM WNW OF
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 125.8 West. The
depression is temporarily drifting toward the west-southwest near 5
mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the west with an increase in forward
speed is expected by Saturday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next several days and
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 302034
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021
2100 UTC FRI JUL 30 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 125.8W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 125.8W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 125.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 12.0N 126.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 11.7N 126.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.7N 127.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.8N 129.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.1N 131.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.5N 132.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 13.2N 135.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 13.9N 138.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 125.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>