Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for GUILLERMO-21
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 202200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 18.8N 125.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 125.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.2N 128.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.5N 131.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.8N 134.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.1N 137.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
202200Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 126.8W.
20JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GUILLERMO), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 954 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z
IS 8 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (FELICIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 202034
TCDEP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Guillermo Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
200 PM PDT Tue Jul 20 2021

Guillermo's circulation consists of a tight swirl of low-level
clouds, and the earlier brief convective flare up dissipated
shortly after the release of the previous advisory. Given that
the system has been devoid of organized deep convection for most of
the last 18 hours, the system is now considered a remnant low and
this will be the last NHC advisory. The initial intensity remains
30 kt based on a recent ASCAT pass that showed an area of 25-30 kt
winds north of the center.

The post-tropical cyclone will remain in an dry, stable airmass
while moving over SSTs of 24-25C, which should result in a gradual
spin down of the circulation. Global model fields indicate that the
low will open up into a trough within 48-60 hours, and that is
indicated in the official forecast.

The remnant low is now moving a little south of due west, with an
initial motion estimate of 265/15. The system is expected to move
west-southwestward until dissipation under the influence of the
expansive low-level ridge centered over the north-central Pacific.
The new NHC track forecast is a little south of and faster than the
previous one, trending toward the latest consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 18.7N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 21/0600Z 18.2N 128.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 21/1800Z 17.5N 131.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0600Z 16.8N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1800Z 16.1N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 202032
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Guillermo Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
200 PM PDT Tue Jul 20 2021

...GUILLERMO BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 126.5W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Guillermo was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 126.5
West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 17
mph (28 km/h) and a westward to west-southwestward motion at a
slightly slower forward speed is expected until the remnant low
dissipates Thursday night or early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and the remnant low is expected to
dissipate in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Guillermo. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Brennan


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 202032
TCMEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072021
2100 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 126.5W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 126.5W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 125.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.2N 128.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.5N 131.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.8N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.1N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 126.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON GUILLERMO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 201600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 19.3N 124.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 124.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.8N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.2N 130.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.5N 132.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.9N 135.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.4N 138.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
201600Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 125.2W.
20JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GUILLERMO), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 890 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND 211600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (FELICIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 201440
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Guillermo Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 20 2021

A small burst of convection formed around 12Z, and it's just large
enough to hold on to Guillermo as a 30-kt tropical depression. This
small area of convection is located in the northeastern quadrant,
and it likely won't last long as the cyclone remains embedded in a
very dry and stable air mass and over cool 24 C waters. Guillermo
should degenerate into a remnant low later today, assuming the deep
convection dissipates. The continued influences of dry air and cool
waters should cause the weak system to spin down, and it should
ultimately dissipate in a few days prior to reaching the Central
Pacific basin.

The tropical depression is moving westward at 15 kt. A general
west-southwestward motion is expected during the next few days as
Guillermo, or its remnants, remains embedded in the flow on the
south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. The NHC track forecast is
just a tad to the north of the previous one and lies near the middle
of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 19.2N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 18.8N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 21/1200Z 18.2N 130.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0000Z 17.5N 132.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1200Z 16.9N 135.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0000Z 16.4N 138.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 201439
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Guillermo Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 20 2021

...GUILLERMO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 125.0W
ABOUT 1005 MI...1620 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Guillermo was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 125.0
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h)
and a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected during the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Guillermo is
expected to become a remnant low later today with dissipation in a
few days.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 201438
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072021
1500 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 125.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 125.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 124.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.8N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.2N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.5N 132.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.9N 135.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.4N 138.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 125.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 201000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 19.1N 122.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 122.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.6N 125.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.1N 128.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.5N 131.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.9N 133.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.3N 136.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
201000Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 123.6W.
20JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GUILLERMO), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 868 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201600Z, 202200Z, 210400Z AND 211000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (FELICIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 200845
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Guillermo Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
200 AM PDT Tue Jul 20 2021

Aside from an isolated shower or two, the cyclone has been
essentially devoid of deep convection for the past 12-15 hours. A
recent scatterometer overpass measured winds of 27 kt over the
northern portion of the circulation, and assuming some undersampling
by that instrument the advisory intensity remains 30 kt.

Guillermo has been moving just slightly south of due west or around
260/15 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of the
system should result in a westward to west-southwestward track
during the next couple of days. The official forecast is just a bit
south of the previous track and follows the latest multi-model
consensus, TVCE, solution.

The cyclone is expected to traverse SSTs of 24-25 deg C during the
next couple of days, and continue to ingest relatively dry and
stable air as evidenced by the dense stratocumulus field ahead of
the system. These conditions should make it unlikely for Guillermo
to regenerate. Unless there is a significant redevelopment of deep
convection near the center soon, Guillermo will be declared a
remnant low pressure system later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 19.0N 123.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 18.6N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 21/0600Z 18.1N 128.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/1800Z 17.5N 131.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0600Z 16.9N 133.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1800Z 16.3N 136.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 200844
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Guillermo Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
200 AM PDT Tue Jul 20 2021

...GUILLERMO LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 123.4W
ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Guillermo was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 123.4
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28
km/h), and a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected
during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Guillermo is
expected to become a remnant low later today, and to dissipate in a
few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 200843
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072021
0900 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 123.4W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 123.4W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 122.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.6N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.1N 128.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.5N 131.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.9N 133.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.3N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 123.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 200400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 19.4N 121.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 121.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.0N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.5N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.0N 130.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.6N 132.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.3N 135.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.0N 138.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
200400Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 122.2W.
20JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GUILLERMO), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 826 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201000Z, 201600Z, 202200Z AND 210400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (FELICIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 200234
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Guillermo Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
800 PM PDT Mon Jul 19 2021

Sub-25C waters, dry and stable air, and moderate west-southwesterly
shear have taken their toll on Guillermo. The depression has now
been devoid of organized deep convection for several hours and
mainly consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. A blend of
the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the
UW-CIMSS ADT indicate that the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The
path of the depression should keep it over waters of around 23-24C
over the next few days. This combined with the other negative
environmental factors should continue to prevent any long-lived deep
convection from redeveloping. Therefore, Guillermo is now forecast
to become a remnant low on Tuesday. Thereafter, the weakening vortex
should open up into a trough within a few days.

Guillermo is now moving a little faster, with a 12-h motion of
270/16 kt as it has become embedded within the easterly flow on the
south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge. This ridge is
forecast to remain in place for several days, which should keep the
depression on a west, or just south-of-west trajectory for the
remainder of its existence. The official track forecast is near the
previous one through 24 h, and then was nudged slightly to the south
beyond 24 h due to a southward shift in the overall track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 19.3N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 19.0N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 18.5N 127.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 18.0N 130.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0000Z 17.6N 132.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1200Z 17.3N 135.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0000Z 17.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 200233
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Guillermo Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
800 PM PDT Mon Jul 19 2021

...GUILLERMO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 122.0W
ABOUT 820 MI...1315 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Guillermo was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 122.0
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday, and
open up into a trough of low pressure by Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 200233
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072021
0300 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 122.0W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 122.0W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.0N 124.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.5N 127.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.0N 130.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.6N 132.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.3N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 122.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 192200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNING NR 010
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 07E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 19.3N 119.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 119.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 19.2N 122.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.8N 125.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.4N 128.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.1N 131.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.8N 133.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.6N 136.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
192200Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 120.1W.
19JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GUILLERMO), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 810 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200400Z, 201000Z, 201600Z AND 202200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (FELICIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 192038
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Guillermo Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
200 PM PDT Mon Jul 19 2021

Guillermo is now producing a small shapeless area of convection
about 70 miles to the southeast of the center, but otherwise, the
cyclone consists mainly of a swirl of low clouds. A recent METOP-A
scatterometer pass showed an area 25-30 kt winds well north (about
90 miles) of the center. Based on this data, the initial intensity
is lowered to 30 kt. With the combined negative contributions of
cool sub 25C oceanic temperatures, stiff west-northwesterly shear
and entrainment of high statically stable marine-layer air,
Guillermo should degenerate to a remnant low by Wednesday night, if
not sooner. The large-scale models and the statistical intensity
guidance show the cyclone opening up into a trough of low pressure
by day 4, and the NHC forecast follows suit.

The depression has increased in forward speed to 15 kt, while moving
westward in the fresh tradewind steering flow. A continued westward
motion on the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge at
about the same aforementioned speed is forecast during the entire
period. The official track forecast is close to the middle of the
model guidance envelope and a little to the left of the previous
advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 19.3N 119.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 19.2N 122.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 18.8N 125.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 18.4N 128.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1800Z 18.1N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/0600Z 17.8N 133.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1800Z 17.6N 136.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 192037
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Guillermo Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
200 PM PDT Mon Jul 19 2021

...POORLY ORGANIZED GUILLERMO BECOMES A DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 119.8W
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Guillermo was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 119.8
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a remnant
low by Wednesday night, if not sooner, and open up into a trough of
low pressure by Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 192037
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072021
2100 UTC MON JUL 19 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 119.8W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 119.8W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 119.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.2N 122.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.8N 125.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.4N 128.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.1N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.8N 133.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.6N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 119.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 191600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 19.0N 117.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 117.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 19.0N 119.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.9N 123.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.6N 126.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.3N 128.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.1N 131.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.9N 134.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.9N 139.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.9N 145.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
191600Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 118.0W.
19JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GUILLERMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
822 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192200Z, 200400Z, 201000Z AND 201600Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 191437
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Guillermo Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021

Guillermo's satellite presentation has continued to deteriorate
over the past several hours, although a new, small deep convective
burst has developed just to the southeast of the circulation
center. An earlier AMSR2 microwave overpass revealed a rather
elongated (west to east) and ill-defined circulation with
fragmented bands in the southeast quadrant. The initial intensity
is lowered to 35 kt and is based on a blend of the TAFB and SAB
Dvorak satellite intensity estimates.

Guillermo is moving over cooler (about 25C) water and into a
progressively more stable and drier surrounding environment.
The statistical-dynamical SHIPS models (GFS/ECMWF) indicate that
moderate west-northwesterly shear should also contribute to the
cyclone's degeneration to a remnant low on Wednesday night. The
intensity forecast now shows Guillermo becoming a remnant low
sooner than the previous advisory and conforms with a consensus of
the large-scale models and the SHIPS forecasts.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/13 kt. A
subtropical ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone should
influence a generally westward motion through dissipation at day 5.
A few of the global models are now showing the lower levels
of the ridge building some to the east-northeast of the Hawaiian
Islands which could induce a west-southwestward motion, or slightly
left of due west, around mid-period. The NHC forecast is once
again adjusted a bit to the left of the previous one and is based on
the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 19.1N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 19.0N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 18.9N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 18.6N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 18.3N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 18.1N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1200Z 17.9N 134.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z 17.9N 139.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1200Z 17.9N 145.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 191437
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Guillermo Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021

...GUILLERMO WEAKENS FURTHER...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 117.8W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 117.8 West. Guillermo is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Guillermo is forecast to become a depression on
Tuesday, if not sooner, and degenerate to a remnant low on
Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 191436
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072021
1500 UTC MON JUL 19 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 117.8W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 117.8W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 117.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.0N 119.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.9N 123.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.6N 126.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.3N 128.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.1N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.9N 134.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 17.9N 139.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 17.9N 145.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 117.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 191000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 18.8N 116.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 116.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.9N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.9N 121.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.7N 124.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.5N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.3N 130.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.2N 132.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 18.2N 137.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.0N 144.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
191000Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 117.0W.
19JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GUILLERMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
836 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191600Z, 192200Z, 200400Z AND 201000Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 190838
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Guillermo Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
1100 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021

Guillermo is not a well-organized tropical cyclone. The low-level
center is displaced about 90 n mi to the northwest of the main area
of deep convection due to northwesterly shear. Taking the mean of
Dvorak final T and current intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB
gives 40 kt, and scatterometer data from a few hours ago suggest
that this may be a generous estimate for the advisory intensity.

Using center fixes from geostationary and microwave imagery along
with the scatterometer winds gives a westward initial motion, or
about 270/13 kt. A well-defined mid-level ridge of high pressure
to the north of the cyclone should maintain a generally westward
motion throughout the forecast period. The official forecast track
is nudged slightly south of the previous one, mainly on account of
the short-term motion. This track forecast is very close to the
latest dynamical model consensus, TVCE, which is usually a very
good performer.

Assuming that some deep convection redevelops nearer to the center
over the next day or two, Guillermo may be able to maintain some of
its intensity for a while. Also, the relatively large circulation
should take some time to spin down as shown by the global models.
However, gradually cooling SSTs, dry mid-level air and continued
shear are expected to cause the cyclone to weaken to a depression in
a couple of days and to degenerate into a remnant low by the end of
the forecast period, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast
is similar to the numerical consensus, IVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 18.8N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 18.9N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 18.9N 121.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 18.7N 124.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 18.5N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 18.3N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 18.2N 132.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 18.2N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 18.0N 144.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 190837
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Guillermo Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
1100 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021

...POORLY-ORGANIZED GUILLERMO WEAKENS SOME MORE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 116.8W
ABOUT 525 MI...850 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo
was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 116.8 West.
Guillermo is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next
few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 190837
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072021
0900 UTC MON JUL 19 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 116.8W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 116.8W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 116.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.9N 118.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.9N 121.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.7N 124.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.5N 127.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.3N 130.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.2N 132.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 18.2N 137.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 18.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 116.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 190400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 18.8N 114.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 114.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 19.1N 117.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 19.2N 120.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.1N 123.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.1N 126.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.9N 128.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.6N 131.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 18.3N 136.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.3N 141.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
190400Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 115.8W.
19JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GUILLERMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
842 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191000Z, 191600Z, 192200Z AND 200400Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 190234
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Guillermo Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
500 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021

Guillermo's convective pattern has eroded significantly since the
previous advisory due to northwesterly vertical wind shear and
entrainment of drier and cooler air. Earlier ASCAT showed the system
was a solid 50-kt tropical cyclone, thus, only slight weakening is
indicated on this advisory to allow for some spin down of the
vortex. Deep convection will likely return near the center later
tonight during the nocturnal convective maximum period, especially
since the cyclone is still going to be moving over sea-surface
temperatures (SST) near 27 deg C, which should result in some slight
re-strengthening or at least hold a steady intensity for the next 24
h or so. By 36 h and beyond, however, Guillermo will be passing over
sub-25C SSTs and into a stronger northwesterly wind shear
environment, which should induce slow but steady weakening through
the rest of the forecast period, with the cyclone becoming a
post-tropical remnant low by 120 hours. The new NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the
NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus models.

The initial motion estimate is now westward, or 280/13 kt. Guillermo
made a due west lurch at about 18 kt after the central deep
convection dissipated, which resulted in the vortex becoming a
little more vertically shallow. However, the motion over the past
few hours has been fairly steady at around 13 kt. The latest model
guidance is tightly packed about the previous advisory track, so
no significant changes were required since the global and regional
models maintain the strong subtropical ridge to the north of
Guillermo for the next 120 hours. The official forecast track
closely follows a blend of the TVCE and GFEX simple consensus
models, and the HCCA corrected-consensus model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 18.9N 115.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 19.1N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 19.2N 120.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 19.1N 123.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 19.1N 126.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 18.9N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 18.6N 131.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 18.3N 136.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 18.3N 141.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 190234
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Guillermo Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
500 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021

...GUILLERMO WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 115.6W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 115.6 West. Guillermo is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some fluctuations in intensity will be possible overnight and early
Monday. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Monday night and
continue for several days thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 190233
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072021
0300 UTC MON JUL 19 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 115.6W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 115.6W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 114.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.1N 117.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.2N 120.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.1N 123.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.1N 126.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.9N 128.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.6N 131.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 18.3N 136.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 18.3N 141.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 115.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 182200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 18.4N 113.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 113.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.0N 115.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.1N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 19.0N 121.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.0N 124.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.9N 127.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.6N 129.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.2N 135.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.0N 140.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
182200Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 114.0W.
18JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GUILLERMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
885 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190400Z, 191000Z, 191600Z AND 192200Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 182032
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Guillermo Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
300 PM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021

Guillermo's convective pattern has not changed significantly since
early this morning, but an ASCAT overpass just after 1600 UTC
revealed that its wind field has expanded. The maximum winds in the
ASCAT data were a little above 45 kt, so the initial intensity has
been increased to 50 kt accordingly. This is just above the latest
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

A slight additional increase in the maximum winds appears likely
during the next day or so, owing to favorable environmental
conditions. However, the highly asymmetric structure of Guillermo
and its relatively broad inner-core will continue to be limiting
factors. In about 24 to 36 h, Guillermo will begin to move over
waters colder than 26 deg C, and this should cause the tropical
storm to gradually weaken. After about 72 h, a drier and more stable
environment will likely also contribute to weakening. Despite those
factors, the GFS and HWRF models continue to indicate that Guillermo
could maintain at least some deep convection through the full 5-day
period. The NHC forecast therefore carries Guillermo as a tropical
cyclone through day 5, but it would not be surprising if it became a
remnant low sooner than that. The official intensity forecast is
slightly higher than the intensity consensus, near the SHIPS and GFS
forecasts.

The aforementioned ASCAT data indicated that Guillermo is centered
slightly north of previous estimates and the estimated initial
motion is slightly faster than the previous advisory, at 290/ 12 kt.
The NHC track forecast has been adjusted northward and faster as a
result, but the overall reasoning remains the same. A mid-level
ridge to the north of Guillermo will likely steer the tropical storm
westward beginning tonight. Guillermo should then continue generally
westward for the next several days. A slight west-southwestward
bend is possible late in the forecast period as the cyclone weakens
and becomes primarily steered by low-level flow. The official track
forecast is heavily based on the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 18.7N 113.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 19.0N 115.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 19.1N 118.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 19.0N 121.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 19.0N 124.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 18.9N 127.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 18.6N 129.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 18.2N 135.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 18.0N 140.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 182032
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Guillermo Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
300 PM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...GUILLERMO A LITTLE BIGGER...FASTER...STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 113.8W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 113.8 West. Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the west with a slight increase in forward speed is
anticipated tonight. The tropical storm is forecast to continue
westward for the next several days after that.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible today and early tomorrow. Gradual
weakening is anticipated by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185
km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 182032
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072021
2100 UTC SUN JUL 18 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 113.8W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 113.8W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 113.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.0N 115.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.1N 118.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.0N 121.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.0N 124.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.9N 127.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.6N 129.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 18.2N 135.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 18.0N 140.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 113.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 181603

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 18.07.2021

HURRICANE FELICIA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 127.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.07.2021 0 15.6N 127.5W 950 86
0000UTC 19.07.2021 12 16.3N 129.6W 972 68
1200UTC 19.07.2021 24 16.3N 131.5W 984 58
0000UTC 20.07.2021 36 16.2N 133.5W 989 59
1200UTC 20.07.2021 48 15.7N 135.8W 998 44
0000UTC 21.07.2021 60 15.0N 138.6W 1002 38
1200UTC 21.07.2021 72 14.4N 141.2W 1004 36
0000UTC 22.07.2021 84 14.0N 143.6W 1005 35
1200UTC 22.07.2021 96 13.6N 146.3W 1005 37
0000UTC 23.07.2021 108 13.4N 149.3W 1007 34
1200UTC 23.07.2021 120 13.5N 152.3W 1007 35
0000UTC 24.07.2021 132 13.6N 155.5W 1009 33
1200UTC 24.07.2021 144 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 112.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.07.2021 0 17.8N 112.2W 1003 31
0000UTC 19.07.2021 12 18.1N 114.8W 1002 31
1200UTC 19.07.2021 24 18.1N 117.6W 1002 33
0000UTC 20.07.2021 36 18.1N 120.5W 1001 38
1200UTC 20.07.2021 48 18.3N 123.8W 1003 32
0000UTC 21.07.2021 60 18.6N 127.1W 1004 33
1200UTC 21.07.2021 72 18.6N 130.3W 1006 30
0000UTC 22.07.2021 84 18.7N 133.2W 1008 28
1200UTC 22.07.2021 96 18.9N 136.6W 1010 26
0000UTC 23.07.2021 108 19.1N 140.0W 1012 26
1200UTC 23.07.2021 120 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 181603

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 181603

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.07.2021

HURRICANE FELICIA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 127.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.07.2021 15.6N 127.5W INTENSE
00UTC 19.07.2021 16.3N 129.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 19.07.2021 16.3N 131.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 20.07.2021 16.2N 133.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.07.2021 15.7N 135.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.07.2021 15.0N 138.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.07.2021 14.4N 141.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2021 14.0N 143.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2021 13.6N 146.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2021 13.4N 149.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2021 13.5N 152.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.07.2021 13.6N 155.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.07.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 112.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.07.2021 17.8N 112.2W WEAK
00UTC 19.07.2021 18.1N 114.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.07.2021 18.1N 117.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.07.2021 18.1N 120.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.07.2021 18.3N 123.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2021 18.6N 127.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2021 18.6N 130.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2021 18.7N 133.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2021 18.9N 136.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2021 19.1N 140.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 181603

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 181600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 17.8N 112.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 112.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.3N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.6N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.7N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.7N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.6N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.4N 128.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.9N 133.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.5N 138.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
181600Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 112.7W.
18JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GUILLERMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
935 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182200Z, 190400Z, 191000Z AND 191600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (FELICIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 181434
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Guillermo Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
900 AM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021

Guillermo's structure has changed little this morning. Very cold
overshooting cloud tops associated with deep convection have been
observed near the center of the tropical storm during the past
couple of hours, however most of the convective activity is still
limited to bands extending to the east and south of the tropical
cyclone. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB continue to
support an intensity estimate of 45 kt. Slight strengthening is
anticipated over the next 24 to 36 hours while Guillermo moves over
fairly warm waters. The rate of strengthening will likely be limited
by moderate northwesterly shear (10-20 kt based on SHIPS
diagnostics) and the relatively large size of the system. After
that, Guillermo will move over progressively cooler waters and into
a drier more stable environment which should cause it to slowly
weaken through the middle of the week. The GFS and HWRF forecast
that Guillermo will maintain tropical characteristics through the
end of the week, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast.
However, it is also possible it will become a remnant low by the
end of the forecast period.

The low-level center of Guillermo is obscured by nearby convection,
but it appears that the tropical storm is still moving
west-northwestward, more or less right on the previous forecast
track. Consequently no changes of note were made to the official
track forecast. A mid-level ridge to the north of Guillermo will
steer the cyclone westward for the next several days, likely with a
slight increase in its forward speed. Around day 4 or 5, Guillermo
is expected to weaken sufficiently so that it will become steered
primarily by low-level flow, and a slight bend toward the
west-southwest is anticipated. Like the previous advisory, the NHC
forecast is very near but just barely slower than the latest
multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 17.9N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 18.3N 114.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 18.6N 116.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 18.7N 119.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 18.7N 122.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 18.6N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 18.4N 128.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 17.9N 133.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 17.5N 138.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 181433
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Guillermo Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
900 AM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...GUILLERMO FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN A LITTLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 112.5W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 112.5 West. Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). The
tropical storm is forecast to turn westward with a slight increase
in forward speed by tonight. A continued westward motion is then
expected for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible today and early tomorrow. Gradual
weakening is anticipated beginning Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 181432
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072021
1500 UTC SUN JUL 18 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 112.5W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 112.5W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 112.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.3N 114.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.6N 116.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.7N 119.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.7N 122.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.6N 125.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.4N 128.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 17.9N 133.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 17.5N 138.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 112.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 181000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 17.5N 111.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 111.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.0N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.4N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.7N 118.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.7N 120.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.7N 123.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.5N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.0N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.5N 137.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
181000Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 111.8W.
18JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GUILLERMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
968 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181600Z, 182200Z, 190400Z AND 191000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (FELICIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 180835
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Guillermo Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
300 AM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021

Guillermo has become a little better organized, with more deep
convection concentrated near the estimated center, and some banding
features trying to develop over the southern part of the
circulation. Upper-level outflow is fairly well-defined over the
southern semicircle as well. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates
from both TAFB and SAB are 45 kt, and this is used for the advisory
intensity. Scatterometer data from ASCAT-A suggest that this may be
a somewhat generous intensity estimate, but the ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C
sensors did not sample the strongest part of the circulation.

There is still considerable scatter in the center fixes from
geostationary imagery. Blending these fixes with additional center
positions from microwave imagery yields a slightly slower forward
motion of about 285/10 kt. A mid-level ridge should be established
to the north of Guillermo for the next several days. This is
likely to result in a generally westward track at a faster forward
speed through most of the forecast period. Late in the period, a
slight bend toward the west-southwest is expected as the weakening
cyclone is influenced more by the low-level flow. The official
track forecast is quite close to the previous one and is near, or a
little slower than, the latest multi-model consensus.

Some additional strengthening is anticipated while the system is in
a relatively low shear environment during the next day or so.
However, the SHIPS model indicates some increase in northwesterly
shear in 1-2 days. Thereafter, SSTs beneath Guillermo should
decrease. These changes should lead to a leveling off of the
intensity, followed by gradual weakening. The NHC intensity forecast
is near or above the model consensus, IVCN, and is also very similar
to the latest HWRF model prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 17.6N 111.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 18.0N 113.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 18.4N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 18.7N 118.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 18.7N 120.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 18.7N 123.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 18.5N 126.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 18.0N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 17.5N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 180834
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Guillermo Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
300 AM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...GUILLERMO STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 111.6W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 111.6 West. Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected tonight, and this general motion
should continue for a few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast
during the next day or so, but a weakening trend should begin by
Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 180834
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072021
0900 UTC SUN JUL 18 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 111.6W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 111.6W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 111.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.0N 113.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.4N 115.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.7N 118.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.7N 120.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.7N 123.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.5N 126.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 18.0N 132.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 17.5N 137.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 111.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 180400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 17.3N 110.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 110.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.9N 112.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.3N 114.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.5N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.7N 120.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.6N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.4N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.9N 130.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.5N 136.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
180400Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 111.3W.
18JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GUILLERMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
989 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181000Z, 181600Z, 182200Z AND 190400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (FELICIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 180236
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Guillermo Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
900 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

The overall structure of Guillermo has changed little since this
afternoon, with the only notable difference being a small burst of
deep convection just to the southwest of the center. Recent
satellite imagery suggests that the system is tilted, with the
mid-level circulation offset a bit to the northeast from the
low-level center. Guillermo is a large tropical cyclone, and the
sprawling circulation of the storm is producing broken banding over
an area over 400 n mi wide. The latest T-numbers from TAFB and the
UW-CIMSS ADT have also changed little since 6 h ago, which suggest
that the Guillermo's initial intensity remains 35 kt.

A fortuitous AMSR2 microwave overpass helped to confirm the
location of Guillermo's low-level center a few hours ago, and the
initial motion estimate is 290/11 kt. The cyclone is expected to
turn to the west on Sunday as it becomes embedded in easterly flow
to the south of a mid-level ridge. This ridge should remain in
place through the early part of next week. By 72 h, the guidance is
suggesting that Guillermo will become a shallow cyclone, and a
large low-level ridge to its northwest will become the primary
steering mechanism, resulting a slightly south-of-west motion. The
official NHC forecast is near the previous one through 60 h, but is
a little faster and slightly to the south of it thereafter.

Due to the large size of Guillermo's circulation, it may take
longer than normal for the cyclone to develop a tight wind field,
despite being in an environment of low vertical wind shear and over
warm waters. Therefore, only gradual strengthening is indicated
over the next 36 h. After 36 h, the forecast track of the cyclone
takes it over cooler waters with SSTs less than 25C by 60 h. There
are also indications that Guillermo will encounter moderate
northwesterly shear in a few days, which would entrain stable air
located to its north into the circulation. These factors should
cause steady weakening beginning in a couple of days. And although
not shown in the official forecast, several of the convection
allowing models show the cyclone losing most, if not all, of its
deep convection and becoming a remnant low by the end of the
forecast period. Since Guillermo's forecast track keeps it fairly
close to a tight SST gradient, with warmer waters just south, it is
possible that a small deviation of the track to the south could
prevent the cyclone from becoming a remnant low so soon. The
latest NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous
one due to a decrease in the overall intensity guidance, yet remains
on the high end of the guidance through 36 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 17.5N 111.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 17.9N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 18.3N 114.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 18.5N 117.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 18.7N 120.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 18.6N 122.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 18.4N 125.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 17.9N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 17.5N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 180235
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Guillermo Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
900 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...LARGE GUILLERMO REMAINS DISORGANIZED AS IT HEADS AWAY FROM
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 111.1W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 111.1 West. Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to
the west is expected on Sunday, and this general motion should
continue for a few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so. A
weakening trend should begin by Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 180235
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072021
0300 UTC SUN JUL 18 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 111.1W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 111.1W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 110.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.9N 112.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.3N 114.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.5N 117.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.7N 120.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.6N 122.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.4N 125.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 17.9N 130.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 17.5N 136.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 111.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 172200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 16.9N 109.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 109.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.6N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.0N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.3N 116.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.4N 118.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.5N 121.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.4N 123.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.1N 128.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.8N 134.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
172200Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 110.2W.
17JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GUILLERMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1034 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180400Z, 181000Z, 181600Z AND 182200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (FELICIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 172039
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Guillermo Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
300 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

Fragmented convective banding has gradually increased since the
previous advisory, with a very tight low-level vortex having become
evident over the center in high-resolution visible satellite
imagery. Low-cloud motion vectors in the inner-core region have
been around 45 kt, which equals approximately 34-kt surface winds if
the cloud motions represent the 925-mb level. Satellite current
intensity (CI) estimates remain T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and and SAB.
The latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate is T2.2/32 kt, with the raw and
adjusted T-numbers at 37 kt and 36 kt, respectively. Based on these
data, the intensity has been increased to 35 kt, making the cyclone
Tropical Storm Guillermo.

The initial motion estimate is 295/12 kt. There are no significant
changes to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The global and
regional models remain in very good agreement on Guillermo moving
west-northwestward today, and then turning toward the west later
tonight or early Sunday, with a general westward motion continuing
through day 3. By days 4 and 5, the deep-layer ridge to the north of
Guillermo is forecast by the models to gradually build southward,
forcing the tropical storm west-southwestward. The latest NHC model
guidance has converged tightly around the previous forecast track
through 96 h, so no adjustments were made. The new official forecast
track lies close to the tightly packed consensus models, which are
about midway between the stronger GFS track forecast on the right
side of the guidance envelope and the weaker ECMWF solution on the
left or south side.

Guillermo is expected to remain within a low vertical wind shear
regime and a moist mid-level environment, and over sea-surface
temperatures (SST) of at least 27C for the next 48 hours or so.
These favorable conditions should allow for at least modest
strengthening to occur during that time, with the only hindering
factor being Guillermo's large circulation. By 60 hours and beyond,
the cyclone will be moving over sub-26C SSTs, which should induce
gradual weakening despite the low vertical wind shear pattern. The
new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and
closely follows the NOAA-HCCA corrected consensus model, which is
above most of the available intensity guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 17.1N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 17.6N 111.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 18.0N 113.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 18.3N 116.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 18.4N 118.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 18.5N 121.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 18.4N 123.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 18.1N 128.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 17.8N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 172039
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Guillermo Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
300 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WELL
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 110.1W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF SOCORRO ISLAND MEXICO
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 110.1 West. Guillermo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A motion toward the
west is forecast to begin by late tonight, with that motion
continuing through Tuesday. On the forecast track, Guillermo will
move farther away from mainland Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km),
mainly northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 172038
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072021
2100 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 110.1W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 110.1W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 109.5W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.6N 111.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.0N 113.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.3N 116.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.4N 118.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N 121.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.4N 123.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 18.1N 128.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 17.8N 134.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 110.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 171440
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
900 AM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

The broad low pressure system that the NHC has been monitoring for
the past few days well offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico
has finally developed enough organized deep convection and a
well-defined inner-core wind field to be classified as a tropical
depression. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt, which is
a little below the consensus T2.5/35-kt classifications from TAFB
and SAB.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 295/15 kt due to the
lack of a well-defined center prior to 1200 UTC. Regardless, the
global and regional models are in exceptionally good agreement on
the cyclone moving west-northwestward today, and then turning toward
the west by late tonight or early Sunday, with that general motion
continuing through 72 hours. Thereafter, the deep-layer subtropical
ridge to the north that will steer the system for the next 5 days is
expected to build slightly southward, nudging the cyclone on a
west-southwestward track at 96 and 120 hours. The NHC forecast track
lies close to but a little slower than the various consensus models
out of respect for the slower GFS and GFS-ensemble models, which are
forecasting a stronger and, thus, more vertically deep tropical
cyclone that should move slower compared to the other weaker models.

During the next 48 hours or so, the cyclone is expected to remain
embedded within an environment conducive for strengthening,
characterized by light wind shear (<10 kt), sea-surface temperatures
(SST) above 27 deg C, and deep moisture through the low- to
mid-levels of the troposphere. Furthermore, a large upper-level low
located just west of the Baja California peninsula, which has been
enhancing the poleward outflows of this disturbance and Hurricane
Felicia farther to the west, is forecast to persist for at least the
next couple of days. All of these favorable conditions argue for at
least modest strengthening during that time, with the only hindering
factor being the large size of the system's circulation. Thereafter,
the cyclone will move over sub-26C SSTs, which should act to cap the
intensification process despite the low vertical wind shear
conditions that are expected to persist. However, the rate of
weakening is forecast to be a little slower than normal due to the
southern half of the circulation remaining over warmer waters, which
will provide warm moist inflow to help fuel thunderstorms near the
inner-core. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the NOAA-HCCA
consensus model through 60 hours, and then is a little above all of
the consensus models thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 16.8N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 17.3N 110.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 17.9N 112.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 18.2N 115.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 18.3N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 18.5N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 18.5N 122.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 18.2N 127.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 17.9N 132.9W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 171439
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
900 AM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS FORMS WELL OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 109.2W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical
Depression Seven-E was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude
109.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near
17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
today. A motion toward the west is forecast to begin by late
tonight, with that motion continuing through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the depression will move farther away from mainland
Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 171439
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072021
1500 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 109.2W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 109.2W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 108.4W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.3N 110.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.9N 112.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.2N 115.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.3N 117.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 120.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 122.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 18.2N 127.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 17.9N 132.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 109.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>