Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BILL-21
in Canada, Saint Pierre and Miquelon

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 160233
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Bill Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021
1100 PM AST Tue Jun 15 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that Bill has become extratropical over
the north Atlantic. A partial scatterometer overpass showed 35-40
kt winds to the east-southeast of the center, so the initial
intensity is lowered to a possibly generous 45 kt. The
extratropical low should continue to weaken and move quickly toward
the northeast until it weakens to a trough between 12-24 h.

This is the last advisory on Bill by the National Hurricane Center.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 43.5N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 16/1200Z 46.5N 53.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 160233
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Bill Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021
1100 PM AST Tue Jun 15 2021

...BILL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.5N 57.0W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Bill
was located near latitude 43.5 North, longitude 57.0 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 29 mph (46
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected, and the post-tropical low is expected to
dissipate on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 160232
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022021
0300 UTC WED JUN 16 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.5N 57.0W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 180SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.5N 57.0W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.5N 57.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 46.5N 53.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.5N 57.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 152035
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bill Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021
500 PM AST Tue Jun 15 2021

Bill is well on its way to becoming an extratropical cyclone. The
convective pattern has become quite asymmetric with the center
exposed to the southwest of the weakening thunderstorms. The
center itself has become stretched, and in fact, surrounding
observations suggest that the surface center may no longer
be closed. In addition, a warm front appears to be forming on
the storm's southeast side. Based on these trends, it seems very
likely that Bill won't be around for long as a tropical storm. The
initial intensity is held at 50 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data,
but that could be a little generous.

The initial motion remains a very fast 055/31 kt. A continued fast
east-northeast to northeast motion in the mid-latitude jet stream
is expected until the cyclone dissipates within the next 12-24
hours near Atlantic Canada. Some weakening seems likely prior to
dissipation due to the cyclone moving over much colder SSTs while
remaining in a strong wind shear environment.

Due to the system's fast forward speed, the strong winds will
remain confined to the south and east sides of the cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 41.6N 59.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 44.7N 55.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 152033
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bill Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021
500 PM AST Tue Jun 15 2021

...BILL ALMOST AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.6N 59.6W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM E OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was
located near latitude 41.6 North, longitude 59.6 West. Bill is
moving toward the northeast near 36 mph (57 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue until the cyclone dissipates on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is expected, and Bill is forecast to become a
post-tropical low by this evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 152032
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022021
2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.6N 59.6W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 31 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 180SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.6N 59.6W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 60.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 44.7N 55.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.6N 59.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 151437
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bill Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021
1100 AM AST Tue Jun 15 2021

Bill remains a fairly well organized tropical storm. Microwave
satellite data indicate that the cyclone still has a fairly tight
core and curved bands on the north and west sides of the
circulation. However, drier air is wrapping into the southeast
portion of the storm, and convection has been decreasing in
intensity over the past couple of hours. A very recent ASCAT-A pass
showed maximum winds of 45-50 kt southeast of the center.
Therefore, the initial intensity is nudged up to 50 kt.

The tropical storm is racing northeastward, and the latest initial
motion is estimated to be 055/33 kt. Bill is embedded in the
mid-latitude jet stream and a continued fast northeastward motion
is expected during the next day or two. This motion should take
the storm over much cooler waters on the north side of the Gulf
Stream Current in about 12 hours. These cold waters, drier air,
and mid-latitude dynamics should cause Bill to transition to an
extratropical cyclone later today. All of the models agree that
the extratropical cyclone should dissipate in 24 to 36 hours over
or near Atlantic Canada.

Bill will likely remain at about the same intensity until it
dissipates by late Wednesday. It should be noted that given the
fast forward speed, most of the strong winds will be on the
southeast side of the system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 40.5N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 43.4N 58.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 16/1200Z 47.5N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 151435
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bill Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021
1100 AM AST Tue Jun 15 2021

...BILL RACING NORTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.5N 62.0W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM E OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was
located near latitude 40.5 North, longitude 62.0 West. Bill is
moving very quickly to the northeast near 38 mph (61 km/h) and
a continued fast northeastward motion is expected through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today, but Bill is forecast to
become a post-tropical low by this evening and dissipate on
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 151434
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022021
1500 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 62.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 33 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 180SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 62.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.7N 63.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 43.4N 58.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 47.5N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 90SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.5N 62.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 150918
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022021
0900 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 67.2W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 27 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 67.2W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 68.5W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 41.0N 62.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 44.7N 57.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 48.6N 52.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N 67.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 150403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 15.06.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 9.7N 22.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.06.2021 0 9.7N 22.7W 1015 14
1200UTC 15.06.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 94.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.06.2021 0 19.5N 94.2W 1009 25
1200UTC 15.06.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS ANALYSED POSITION : 10.5N 130.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.06.2021 0 10.5N 130.3W 1007 27
1200UTC 15.06.2021 12 9.9N 132.2W 1007 25
0000UTC 16.06.2021 24 9.4N 133.6W 1007 23
1200UTC 16.06.2021 36 9.0N 134.3W 1007 24
0000UTC 17.06.2021 48 9.2N 134.8W 1006 23
1200UTC 17.06.2021 60 9.7N 135.5W 1007 23
0000UTC 18.06.2021 72 10.0N 136.6W 1007 23
1200UTC 18.06.2021 84 10.2N 137.7W 1007 22
0000UTC 19.06.2021 96 10.7N 138.4W 1007 22
1200UTC 19.06.2021 108 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 36.4N 71.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.06.2021 0 36.4N 71.0W 1008 30
1200UTC 15.06.2021 12 39.1N 64.9W 1006 37
0000UTC 16.06.2021 24 42.4N 60.3W 1007 34
1200UTC 16.06.2021 36 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150402

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 150238
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bill Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021
1100 PM AST Mon Jun 14 2021

Deep convection has increased in a cluster to the northeast of the
estimated center. Scatterometer measurements showed a couple of
40-41 kt vectors over the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone. On
this basis, the estimated intensity is increased to 40 kt, which
makes this the second tropical storm of the season, albeit a rather
high-latitude one. The system is in an environment of fairly
strong southwesterly shear, but the diffluent upper-level flow has
apparently contributed to some strengthening in a seemingly hostile
environment. Some additional short-term strengthening could occur
but by 36 hours, the cyclone should merge with a baroclinic zone
while approaching Newfoundland and become extratropical. This
transition is also shown by the FSU cyclone phase analyses of the
GFS model fields.

Bill is moving fairly swiftly northeastward, or 055/20 kt. The
track forecast appears to be straightforward. The flow ahead of a
large mid-tropospheric trough near the United States east coast
should accelerate the system northeastward for the next day or two,
and until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast is similar
to the previous one and not far from the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 36.7N 69.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 38.9N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 42.6N 59.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 46.5N 54.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 150237
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bill Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021
1100 PM AST Mon Jun 14 2021

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM BILL...
...LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.7N 69.8W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was
located near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 69.8 West. Bill is
moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general
motion is expected through Wednesday with increasing forward speed.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is possible on Tuesday, however the
system is expected to become a post-tropical low and dissipate on
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 150237
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022021
0300 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 69.8W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 69.8W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 70.8W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 38.9N 65.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 42.6N 59.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 46.5N 54.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.7N 69.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 142035
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021
500 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

Deep convection has weakened some this afternoon near the center of
the depression, and the cloud pattern definitely is showing signs of
shear. However, visible satellite imagery still indicates that it
has a tight circulation, and past experience suggests with that kind
of low-level structure, the depression is close to becoming a
tropical storm. None of the conventional intensity estimates,
however, show the system as a storm yet, and since scatterometer
data also totally missed this morning, 30 kt will stay as the
initial wind speed. No change is made to the intensity forecast from
the last advisory, with the system having about 24 hours of time
over marginally warm water to intensify. Afterwards, the cyclone
should quickly lose convection and transition into an extratropical
low, and dissipate near Newfoundland. This forecast is somewhat
higher than the the guidance consensus on this cycle, but given that
I was on the low side on the first forecast compared to guidance, I
decided to hold steady and not waffle like the models are prone to
doing.

The depression is moving northeastward at about 16 kt, a little
slower than before. Model guidance is in excellent agreement on
large trough over eastern North America causing the depression to
accelerate quite a bit in that general direction during the next
day or two. The northeastward track is forecast to continue until
the system dissipates near Newfoundland on Wednesday while it is
absorbed by a larger extratropical low. The model guidance has
shifted a little south of the previous advisory, and the NHC track
prediction is shifted in that direction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 35.5N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 37.5N 68.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 40.9N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 45.0N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 142033
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021
500 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 72.0W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 72.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph, and
this general motion is expected through Wednesday with increasing
forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight
and could continue to strengthen on Tuesday. The system is
expected to become a post-tropical low and dissipate on Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 142033
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022021
2100 UTC MON JUN 14 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 72.0W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 72.0W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 73.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 37.5N 68.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 40.9N 62.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 45.0N 57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.5N 72.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 141442
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021
1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

Satellite and radar images show that the low pressure area that NHC
has been following since yesterday off the coast of North Carolina
has become better organized, with a small central dense overcast
over the center and more prominent banding features. The low also
has advanced ahead of a nearby diffuse stationary front, with that
boundary lying northwest of the center. Considering the small core
of the low, ample deep convection, satellite pattern, and that the
low is feeding off of the thunderstorm activity (and not the front)
-- it is now classified as a tropical depression. The initial
intensity is set to 30 kt, which is our best estimate assuming
strengthening from the 20-25 kt overnight ASCAT and surface
observations.

The depression is moving northeastward at about 18 kt. A large
mid-latitude trough digging across eastern North America should
cause the cyclone to continue moving generally northeastward, but
faster, over the next couple of days. In about 48 hours, the system
is forecast to dissipate near Newfoundland as it is absorbed by a
larger extratropical low. Model guidance is in very good agreement
on this scenario, and the NHC forecast lies near the track
consensus.

The depression has about 24 hours over marginally warm waters in
low-to-moderate shear to strengthen before it moves north of the
Gulf Stream and decays. Almost all of the intensity guidance shows
the system becoming a tropical storm tonight, and considering the
healthy initial structure, the official forecast follows that
guidance. The low should lose tropical characteristics in about 36
hours due to very cold waters and dissipate near Newfoundland in
about 2 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 35.0N 73.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 36.6N 70.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 39.8N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 43.6N 59.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 141438
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021
1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA...
...HEADING AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.0N 73.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 73.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and
this general motion is expected through Wednesday with increasing
forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight
and could continue to strengthen on Tuesday. The system should
begin to weaken by Tuesday night and is expected to dissipate on
Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 141438
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022021
1500 UTC MON JUN 14 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 73.7W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 73.7W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 74.5W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 36.6N 70.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 39.8N 65.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 43.6N 59.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.0N 73.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>