Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CARLOS-21
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 161603

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.06.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 92.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.06.2021 17.7N 92.2W WEAK
00UTC 17.06.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS ANALYSED POSITION : 9.2N 134.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.06.2021 9.2N 134.5W WEAK
00UTC 17.06.2021 9.1N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.06.2021 9.5N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.06.2021 10.0N 136.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.06.2021 10.2N 138.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.06.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 14.8N 101.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.06.2021 14.8N 101.0W WEAK
00UTC 19.06.2021 15.8N 102.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.06.2021 16.5N 104.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.06.2021 19.0N 104.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.06.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 161603

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 161600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 8.7N 135.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 8.7N 135.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 8.6N 136.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 8.7N 137.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 9.0N 138.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 9.2N 140.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
161600Z POSITION NEAR 8.7N 135.4W.
16JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1340 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 12 FEET.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 161448
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
800 AM PDT Wed Jun 16 2021

Shortwave infrared satellite imagery suggests that Carlos's center
has become less defined since last evening's scatterometer passes,
and the overall circulation is losing definition as it becomes
embedded within the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Despite
the few sporadic bursts of convection that have been occurring, the
system has been unable to generate persistent organized deep
convection near its center for quite some time, and Carlos is
therefore being designated as a remnant low with maximum winds of
25 kt. Moderate westerly shear and ingestion of drier air should
cause the remnant low to weaken further, and likely dissipate within
the ITCZ in 2 to 3 days.

Geostationary and microwave imagery indicates that Carlos has sunk
a little farther south than previously estimated, and its 12-hour
heading has been toward the west-southwest (240/6 kt). The bulk of
the track models show that the remnant low should resume a westward
motion later today and then maintain a steady west to
west-northwest heading through Friday, steered by the low-level
trade winds. The new NHC official track forecast is a blend of the
previous forecast and the GFS-ECMWF consensus, and due to the
southward-adjusted initial position, is about a half a degree south
of the previous forecast.

This is the last advisory on Carlos. For additional information on
the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 8.6N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 17/0000Z 8.6N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 17/1200Z 8.7N 137.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0000Z 9.0N 138.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 9.2N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 161447
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
800 AM PDT Wed Jun 16 2021

...CARLOS BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.6N 135.3W
ABOUT 1950 MI...3140 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos
was located near latitude 8.6 North, longitude 135.3 West. Carlos
is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected later today, with that heading at a
similar forward speed continuing through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and the
remnant low is expected to dissipate by Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 161447
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021
1500 UTC WED JUN 16 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 135.3W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 135.3W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 135.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 8.6N 136.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 8.7N 137.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 9.0N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 9.2N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.6N 135.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 161000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 9.3N 134.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3N 134.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 9.2N 135.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 9.2N 137.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 9.4N 138.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 9.6N 139.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 9.8N 141.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
161000Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 135.1W.
16JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1337 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161600Z, 162200Z, 170400Z AND 171000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 160835
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
1100 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021

Carlos has maintained a small area of deep convection to the south
and northeast of the well-defined low-level center of circulation.
However, the convection has decreased in coverage and has become
more linear over the past 3 h. Despite the ragged convective
appearance in infrared satellite imagery, ASCAT-A/-B passes at 0438Z
and 0554Z, respectively, indicated that the small cyclone was still
producing winds of 28-29 kt in the northwestern quadrant. Therefore,
the intensity is being kept at 30 kt for this advisory.

Carlos is moving a little south of due west or 260/06 kt. As per the
previous forecast discussion, a gradual westward turn is expected to
occur later today, followed by a westward to west-northwestward
motion thereafter as the cyclone weakens and becomes more vertically
shallow, being steered more by the long-fetch easterly trade wind
flow. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of
the previous advisory track and lies near a blend of the TVCE and
NOAA-HCCA consensus track models.

The only positive factor that Carlos has going for it is the warm
water beneath the cyclone where sea-surface temperatures (SST) are
27.5 deg C. Surrounding the small cyclone, however, is a very dry
and cool airmass, with stable stratocumulus clouds now wrapping into
the system, while deep-layer vertical wind shear of more than 20 kt
has been increasing from the west. Although SSTs are expected to be
warm enough to sustain a tropical cyclone for the next few days, the
unfavorable combination of strong shear and a drier airmass is
expected to cause Carlos to weaken and degenerate into a remnant low
by late today, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the previous advisory, and closely follows the HCCA and IVCN
intensity consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 9.2N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 9.2N 135.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 9.2N 137.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/1800Z 9.4N 138.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0600Z 9.6N 139.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1800Z 9.8N 141.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 160831
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Carlos Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
1100 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021

...CARLOS BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.2N 135.0W
ABOUT 1910 MI...3075 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlos
was located near latitude 9.2 North, longitude 135.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Carlos is expected to degenerate into a remnant low later
today and dissipate in a few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 160831
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021
0900 UTC WED JUN 16 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 135.0W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 135.0W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 134.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 9.2N 135.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 9.2N 137.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 9.4N 138.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 9.6N 139.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 9.8N 141.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.2N 135.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 160400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 9.7N 133.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7N 133.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 9.5N 135.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 9.4N 136.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 9.5N 137.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 9.8N 138.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 10.0N 140.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
160400Z POSITION NEAR 9.6N 134.3W.
16JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1367 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161000Z, 161600Z, 162200Z AND 170400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 160236
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
500 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021

Carlos continues to produce small, short-lived bursts of convection
near its center this evening. While this limited convection lacks
significant organization, it remains just active enough to hold onto
Carlos as a sheared tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set
at 30 kt, which is consistent with several earlier ASCAT passes that
showed 25-30 kt winds in the northwest quadrant of the cyclone.

The depression continues moving just south of due west, or 260/07
kt. A gradual westward to west-northwestward turn is expected during
the next day or so as Carlos moves around the southern periphery of
a low- to mid-level ridge. Although sea-surface temperatures remain
warm enough along the forecast track to support more brief
convective pulses, 20-25 kt of westerly shear and limited mid-level
moisture will inhibit any organized convective development. Carlos
will move into a more subsident environment by 24 h, which should
seal its fate as it degenerates to a remnant low. The vortex is
expected to gradually spin down thereafter, and it should dissipate
by late this week. The latest NHC forecast is largely an update of
the previous one and lies near the latest multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 9.6N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 9.5N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 9.4N 136.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/1200Z 9.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0000Z 9.8N 138.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1200Z 10.0N 140.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 160235
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Carlos Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
500 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021

...CARLOS STILL BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 134.2W
ABOUT 1850 MI...2975 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlos
was located near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 134.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Carlos is expected to degenerate into a remnant low tomorrow and
dissipate in a few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 160234
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021
0300 UTC WED JUN 16 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 134.2W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 134.2W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 133.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 9.5N 135.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 9.4N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 9.5N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 9.8N 138.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 10.0N 140.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.6N 134.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 152200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 9.9N 133.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9N 133.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 9.6N 134.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 9.4N 135.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 9.5N 137.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 9.7N 138.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 10.0N 139.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
152200Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 133.6W.
15JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1403 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160400Z, 161000Z, 161600Z AND 162200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 152039
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021

Dry, stable air and strong southwesterly shear continue to take
their toll on Carlos. The only deep convection associated with the
depression consists of a very small cluster just south of the
center, and another about 90 n mi northwest of the center. This
meager amount of shower activity is not sufficient to be considered
organized deep convection. Therefore if no significant convection
develops soon, then Carlos will be declared a remnant low. Despite
the lack of convection, a pair recent ASCAT overpasses showed
several wind vectors of 27-30 kt, so the initial intensity remains
30 kt for this advisory. The environment surrounding the depression
is not forecast to improve, so the vortex should gradually spin
down, with dissipation expected within a few days.

Carlos is moving just south of due west at 8 kt. This general motion
is expected to continue for the remainder of the cyclone's
existence, except for perhaps a slight decrease in forward speed and
turn to the right, as the system is steered by a low- to mid-level
ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed
from the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 9.8N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 9.6N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 9.4N 135.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0600Z 9.5N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1800Z 9.7N 138.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/0600Z 10.0N 139.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 152039
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Carlos Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...CARLOS BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 133.5W
ABOUT 1800 MI...2900 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlos
was located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 133.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).
A continued westward motion along with a slight decrease in forward
speed is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Carlos is expected to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or
tomorrow and dissipate in a few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 152038
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021
2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 133.5W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 133.5W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 133.1W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 9.6N 134.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 9.4N 135.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 9.5N 137.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 9.7N 138.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 10.0N 139.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.8N 133.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 10.1N 132.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 132.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 9.8N 133.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 9.7N 135.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 9.7N 136.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 9.7N 138.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 9.9N 139.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
151600Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 132.8W.
15JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1445 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152200Z, 160400Z, 161000Z AND 161600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 151600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 10.1N 132.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 132.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 9.8N 133.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 9.7N 135.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 9.7N 136.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 9.7N 138.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 9.9N 139.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
151600Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 132.8W.
15JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1445 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152200Z, 160400Z, 161000Z AND 161600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 151433
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
800 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021

Several hours ago there was a burst of deep convection near the
center of Carlos. Although cloud tops are beginning to warm, this
convection gave Carlos a little more time as a tropical cyclone.
There has been no new ASCAT data since early yesterday to confirm
the strength of the cyclone's winds, and so the initial intensity is
set at a somewhat uncertain 30 kt for this advisory, which is in
agreement with the CIMSS ADT.

Carlos has begun to turn back to the west and is now on a heading
of 260/9 kt. This general motion, except for perhaps a slight
decrease in forward speed is expected for the remainder of the
cyclone's existence, as it is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge
to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from
the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus.

Dry and stable air along with strong vertical wind shear that
have been disrupting the depression's convection will continue to
affect the cyclone for the foreseeable future. Due to the warm
underlying waters, there still may be some short-lived convective
bursts near the center of Carlos over the next couple of days.
In about 2 days, the shear vector will shift from southwest to
northwest as an upper trough north of the depression shifts east.
This subsident pattern should put an end to any chances for
organized deep convection to return. The NHC forecast calls for
Carlos to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 h. However, that
timing is uncertain, and Carlos could remain a tropical cyclone
until the upper-level flow shifts in a couple of days. Once a
remnant low, the system should dissipate within a day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 10.0N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 9.8N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 9.7N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0000Z 9.7N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1200Z 9.7N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/0000Z 9.9N 139.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 151432
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Carlos Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
800 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...CARLOS TRYING TO HANG ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 132.6W
ABOUT 1745 MI...2805 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlos
was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 132.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A
continued westward motion along with a slight decrease in forward
speed is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is expected over the next couple of days, and Carlos
is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 151432
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021
1500 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 132.6W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 132.6W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 132.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 9.8N 133.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 9.7N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 9.7N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 9.7N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 9.9N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 132.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 151000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 10.2N 131.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2N 131.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 9.6N 133.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 9.5N 134.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 9.5N 135.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 9.5N 137.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 9.7N 138.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
151000Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 131.9W.
15JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1490 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
150600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151600Z, 152200Z, 160400Z AND
161000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 150858
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
200 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021

Organized deep convection has dissipated once again near the
low-level center of Carlos, thanks to a combination of very dry,
stable mid-level air and increasing southwesterly vertical wind
shear. A blend of the latest subjective and objective intensity
estimates supports maintaining the current intensity of 30-kt for
this advisory, though this may be somewhat generous given the
highest wind retrieval from a partial 0459 UTC ASCAT-A pass was only
26 kt.

Carlos is continuing to move steadily to the west-southwest at
245/10 kt. This current motion should continue for the next
day or so followed by a gradual bend westward as the shallow cyclone
becomes increasingly steered by a large poleward low-level ridge
over the north Pacific. The latest NHC track is once again a bit
faster and slightly south of the previous forecast, but remains in
agreement with the multi-model consensus.

The continued combination of very dry 40-45 percent relative
humidity and 25-30 kts of southwesterly vertical wind shear will
ultimately lead to Carlos' demise, despite the cyclone traversing
sufficently warm 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures. Now that
convection has dissipated again near the center, without another
resurgence, it is only a matter of time before the cyclone
degenerates into a remnant low. Investigating simulated satellite
forecasts from global model (GFS, ECMWF, CMC) and regional hurricane
model (HWRF) output suggests that any additional convective bursts
will quickly shear off to the east and not be sufficently organized
to maintain the cyclone's identity. Therefore, Carlos is expected
to become a remnant low in 24 h, but could occur as soon as this
afternoon if convection does not return soon. The remnant low will
continue to slowly spin down, likely opening up into a trough by 72
h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 10.1N 131.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 9.6N 133.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 9.5N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/1800Z 9.5N 135.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0600Z 9.5N 137.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/1800Z 9.7N 138.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 150857
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Carlos Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
200 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...CARLOS COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS SOON AS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 131.8W
ABOUT 1695 MI...2725 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlos
was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 131.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 12 mph (19 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown and
turn toward the west by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is expected over the next couple of days, and Carlos
is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by Tuesday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 150857
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021
0900 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 131.8W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 131.8W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 131.3W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 9.6N 133.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 9.5N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 9.5N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 9.5N 137.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 9.7N 138.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 131.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 150400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 10.6N 130.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 130.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 10.1N 132.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 9.8N 133.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 9.7N 135.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 9.7N 136.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 9.8N 137.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 10.0N 139.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
150400Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 131.0W.
15JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1516 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151000Z, 151600Z, 152200Z AND 160400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 150237
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
800 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021

Carlos is barely holding on as a tropical cyclone. The depression
was completely devoid of convection for several hours this afternoon
with a completely exposed low-level center, but recently a small
burst of convection pulsed near and to the west-southwest of the
low-level center. Given the unfavorable environment the system is
embedded within, this activity is likely to be short-lived. Carlos
remains a 30-kt tropical depression with this advisory, in best
agreement with the subjective Dvorak classification received from
TAFB.

The depression is still moving west-southwestward, or 250/10 kt.
This general motion will continue for the next 24 h, followed by a
westward motion to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge that
should continue through Carlos' dissipation. The latest NHC track
forecast track is somewhat faster and slightly south of the previous
one, in agreement with the latest multi-model consensus.

Despite reasonably warm sea-surface temperatures along its track,
Carlos is expected to continue battling intrusions of dry air from
its surrounding environment as well as increasing west-southwesterly
shear. Therefore, the future looks bleak for Carlos, and the system
appears likely to degenerate to a remnant low within the next 24 h
or so. This forecast is consistent with the latest GFS and ECMWF
simulated satellite imagery, which shows little potential for any
sustained, organized convection going forward. The majority of the
global guidance now suggests that the remnant low will dissipate by
Friday night, which is reflected in this forecast advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 10.5N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 10.1N 132.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 9.8N 133.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/1200Z 9.7N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0000Z 9.7N 136.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/1200Z 9.8N 137.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0000Z 10.0N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 150234
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Carlos Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
800 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...CARLOS BARELY HOLDS ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.5N 130.8W
ABOUT 1620 MI...2610 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlos
was located near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 130.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 10 mph (17
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through
Tuesday, followed by a westward turn through midweek.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is expected over the next couple of days, and Carlos
is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by Tuesday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 150233
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021
0300 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 130.8W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 130.8W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 130.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 10.1N 132.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 9.8N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 9.7N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 9.7N 136.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 9.8N 137.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 10.0N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 130.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 142200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 009
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 11.0N 129.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 129.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 10.5N 131.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 10.1N 132.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 9.9N 134.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 9.9N 135.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 9.9N 136.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 10.1N 137.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 10.3N 140.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
142200Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 130.1W.
14JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1473 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150400Z, 151000Z, 151600Z AND 152200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 142042
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
200 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021

The convective burst that occurred this morning near the center of
Carlos has been gradually dissipating throughout the day. Satellite
imagery shows dry and stable air being entrained into the
circulation and the cyclone's center has become partially exposed.
The latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB indicates that Carlos has
weakened to a 30-kt tropical depression, and this will be the
initial advisory intensity.

Carlos is moving west-southwest at 8 kt, steered by a low- to
mid-level ridge to its north. Most of the track guidance is in good
agreement on keeping this ridge intact over the next several days,
forcing Carlos on the same west-southwest trajectory for the next
day or so, followed by a gradual turn to the west by midweek. The
latest NHC track forecast was adjusted to be a little faster and to
the south of the previous one to better match the trend in the
guidance, and is now near the northern end of the multi-model
consensus.

The depression is forecast to continue to traverse a dry and stable
airmass for the remainder of the week, and ongoing intrusions of
this air should inhibit the cyclone from producing long-lived
convection. The lack of deep convection should cause Carlos to
continue a slow weakening trend and eventually degenerate into a
remnant low. The official NHC forecast calls for this transition to
to occur by 48 h. However, it could occur sooner than this if
organized deep convection fails to regenerate.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 10.9N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 10.5N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 10.1N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 9.9N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 9.9N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/0600Z 9.9N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1800Z 10.1N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1800Z 10.3N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 142041
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Carlos Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
200 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...CARLOS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 130.0W
ABOUT 1560 MI...2515 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlos
was located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 130.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or
so followed by a turn to the west.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Carlos
is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by midweek.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 142041
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021
2100 UTC MON JUN 14 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 130.0W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 130.0W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 129.6W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 10.5N 131.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 10.1N 132.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 9.9N 134.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 9.9N 135.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 9.9N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 10.1N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 10.3N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 130.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 141600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 11.4N 128.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 128.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 10.9N 129.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 10.6N 130.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 10.3N 132.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 10.2N 133.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 10.2N 134.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 10.3N 135.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 10.7N 137.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 11.1N 139.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
141600Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 128.7W.
14JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1419
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141500Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142200Z, 150400Z, 151000Z AND 151600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 141432
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
800 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021

After being nearly devoid of deep convection for much of the night,
a new burst of convection has redeveloped near the center of the
cyclone's circulation. A blend of the latest Dvorak T-numbers from
TAFB and SAB support maintaining an initial intensity of 35 kt for
this advisory.

Carlos is moving west-southwest at 7 kt, steered by a low- to
mid-level ridge to its north. Most of the track guidance is now in
good agreement on keeping this ridge intact over the next several
days, forcing Carlos on the same west-southwest trajectory for the
next day or so, followed by a gradual turn to the west by midweek.
The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one through 48 h,
and a little faster and south of it beyond that time. Most guidance
remains to the left of the latest NHC forecast, so additional
adjustments may be required later today.

Satellite images show a vast area of dry and stable air to the north
and west of Carlos, with stratocumulus being drawn into the western
portion of the cyclone's circulation. This undoubtedly helped to
contribute to the sputtering of convective activity overnight. The
ongoing intrusions of dry, stable air should continue to
periodically disrupt the development of deep convection over the
next day or so, which should cause Carlos to slowly weaken. By
36-48 h, southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 20 kt is
expected to hasten the weakening process, resulting in Carlos
degenerating into a remnant low by midweek. Thereafter, only
sporadic convection is expected to develop in association with the
remnant low as it gradually spins down. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is nearly the same as the previous one and is in agreement
with the bulk of the guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 11.3N 128.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 10.9N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 10.6N 130.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 10.3N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 10.2N 133.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/0000Z 10.2N 134.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1200Z 10.3N 135.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1200Z 10.7N 137.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z 11.1N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 141431
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlos Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
800 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...CARLOS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 128.6W
ABOUT 1470 MI...2365 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 128.6 West. Carlos is
moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so
followed by a turn to the west.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Carlos
is expected to become a tropical depression later today and then
degenerate to a remnant low by midweek.

Carlos is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 141431
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021
1500 UTC MON JUN 14 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 128.6W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 128.6W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 128.3W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 10.9N 129.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 10.6N 130.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 10.3N 132.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 10.2N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 10.2N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 10.3N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 10.7N 137.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 11.1N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 128.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 141000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 11.5N 127.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 127.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 11.2N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 10.8N 129.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 10.4N 130.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 10.2N 132.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 10.2N 133.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 10.5N 134.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 11.0N 136.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 11.5N 137.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
141000Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 127.8W.
14JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1395
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141600Z, 142200Z, 150400Z AND 151000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 140835
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
200 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021

The satellite presentation of Carlos has continued to erode early
this morning, with only three remnant convective cells noted
rotating around the center. As a result, subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates have fallen sharply. Thus, the
initial intensity has also been lowered to 35 kt, which could be
generous.

The initial motion estimate is 255/06 kt. Carlos is forecast by the
global and regional models to be steered west-southwestward to
westward throughout the 5-day period by a strong low- to mid-level
subtropical ridge situated to its north and northwest. The latest
model guidance has come into much better agreement on this track
scenario, especially compared to this time yesterday, and the new
NHC track forecast follows suit and lies close to a blend of the
HCCA and TVCE consensus track models.

Although sea-surface temperatures are expected to remain warm enough
to support a tropical cyclone, the continued ingestion of cooler,
drier, and more stable air that now completely surrounds Carlos is
forecast to continue to erode the central deep convection, with the
cyclone weakening a tropical depression later today. By 36-48h,
southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 20 kt is expected to
hasten the weakening process, resulting in Carlos degenerating into
a remnant low. Although there will likely be periodic short-lived
bursts of convection, especially at night, the general trend should
be gradual weakening throughout the 120-h forecast period, perhaps
even faster than indicated by the official intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 11.4N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 11.2N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 10.8N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 10.4N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 10.2N 132.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/1800Z 10.2N 133.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0600Z 10.5N 134.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/0600Z 11.0N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0600Z 11.5N 137.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 140832
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlos Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
200 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...CARLOS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 127.8W
ABOUT 1420 MI...2285 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 127.8 West. Carlos is
moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion
toward the west-southwest or west is expected for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few
days, and Carlos is forecast to become a tropical depression later
today, and degenerate to a remnant low by late Tuesday or Wednesday.

Carlos is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 140832
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021
0900 UTC MON JUN 14 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 127.8W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 127.8W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 127.5W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 11.2N 128.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 10.8N 129.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 10.4N 130.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 10.2N 132.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 10.2N 133.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 10.5N 134.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 11.0N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 11.5N 137.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 127.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 140400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 14.06.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 99.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.06.2021 0 18.7N 99.4W 1009 15
1200UTC 14.06.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ANALYSED POSITION : 11.6N 126.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.06.2021 0 11.6N 126.8W 1004 37
1200UTC 14.06.2021 12 11.0N 127.8W 1005 30
0000UTC 15.06.2021 24 10.4N 128.9W 1005 28
1200UTC 15.06.2021 36 9.9N 129.7W 1005 27
0000UTC 16.06.2021 48 9.8N 130.1W 1005 27
1200UTC 16.06.2021 60 10.0N 130.5W 1006 26
0000UTC 17.06.2021 72 10.3N 130.5W 1006 22
1200UTC 17.06.2021 84 10.7N 130.4W 1005 25
0000UTC 18.06.2021 96 11.4N 130.2W 1006 23
1200UTC 18.06.2021 108 12.0N 129.6W 1006 25
0000UTC 19.06.2021 120 12.6N 128.9W 1007 21
1200UTC 19.06.2021 132 12.8N 127.9W 1009 20
0000UTC 20.06.2021 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 22.2N 95.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.06.2021 132 22.2N 95.4W 1005 31
0000UTC 20.06.2021 144 23.2N 95.9W 1003 34


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 140400

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 140400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.06.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 99.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.06.2021 18.7N 99.4W WEAK
12UTC 14.06.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ANALYSED POSITION : 11.6N 126.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.06.2021 11.6N 126.8W WEAK
12UTC 14.06.2021 11.0N 127.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.06.2021 10.4N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.06.2021 9.9N 129.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.06.2021 9.8N 130.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.06.2021 10.0N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.06.2021 10.3N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.06.2021 10.7N 130.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.06.2021 11.4N 130.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.06.2021 12.0N 129.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.06.2021 12.6N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.06.2021 12.8N 127.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.06.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 22.2N 95.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.06.2021 22.2N 95.4W WEAK
00UTC 20.06.2021 23.2N 95.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 140400

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 140400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 11.7N 126.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 126.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 11.3N 127.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 10.9N 128.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 10.5N 130.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 10.2N 131.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 10.2N 132.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 10.3N 133.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 11.0N 135.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 11.5N 136.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140400Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 127.2W.
14JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1369
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141000Z, 141600Z, 142200Z AND 150400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 140238
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
800 PM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021

The satellite appearance of Carlos has degraded this evening. A
ragged area of deep convection persists near and to the west of the
estimated center position, but infrared cloud top temperatures have
recently warmed and the system's organization has not improved.
Therefore, the initial intensity of Carlos is lowered to 40 kt for
this advisory. This is consistent with objective UW-CIMSS ADT and
SATCON estimates between 35-40 kt, as well as an average of the
subjective Dvorak classifications received from TAFB and SAB.

Carlos continues to be steered west-southwestward by a mid-level
ridge to its north and northwest. This general motion is expected to
persist for the next couple of days. Fortunately, the vast majority
of reliable track guidance has come into much better agreement for
day 3 and beyond, showing the weakening cyclone moving generally
westward to the south of a low-level ridge. Substantial adjustments
were once again made to the official NHC track forecast beyond 48 h
to show a westward to west-northwestward motion on days 3-5, which
is consistent with the latest guidance consensus. The updated track
forecast lies closer to the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA)
and TVCE consensus aids, although it is still somewhat slower and
right-of-track to allow for a gradual shift in the NHC forecast.

Carlos is forecast to move over warm sea-surface temperatures in
an environment with fairly low vertical wind shear for the next 12 h
or so. However, surrounding dry air may periodically disrupt the
cyclone's convective structure, and thus limit its ability to become
more organized and intensify. Therefore, only small fluctuations in
intensity are expected. Thereafter, decreasing oceanic heat content
and increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear within a drier
mid-level environment should induce a weakening trend. The latest
NHC forecast calls for Carlos to weaken into a tropical depression
by Tuesday night. Marginal environmental conditions and continued
bouts of dry air will affect Carlos through late week, and it is
plausible that Carlos will become a remnant low even earlier than
forecast, perhaps by the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 11.6N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 11.3N 127.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 10.9N 128.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 10.5N 130.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 10.2N 131.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 10.2N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 10.3N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 11.0N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 11.5N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 140236
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlos Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
800 PM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...CARLOS WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 127.1W
ABOUT 1375 MI...2210 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 127.1 West. Carlos is
moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days,
followed by a westward turn by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days,
and Carlos is forecast to become a tropical depression by Tuesday
night.

Carlos is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 140236
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021
0300 UTC MON JUN 14 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 127.1W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 127.1W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 126.8W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 11.3N 127.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 10.9N 128.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 10.5N 130.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 10.2N 131.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 10.2N 132.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 10.3N 133.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 11.0N 135.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 11.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 127.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 132200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 11.8N 126.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 126.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 11.4N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 11.0N 128.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 10.6N 129.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 10.4N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 10.3N 130.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 10.3N 131.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 10.7N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.4N 132.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
132200Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 126.7W.
13JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1352
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140400Z, 141000Z, 141600Z AND 142200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 132038
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
200 PM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Deep convection has managed to persist over the center of Carlos
throughout the day today, although the appearance of this convection
has become more ragged as the day has progressed. The blended CI
values from TAFB and SAB suggest the system still has an intensity
of 45 kt. A recent ASCAT overpass only partially captured the
circulation with peak wind vectors of 39 kt. Compensating for
possible undersampling by the instrument over only a portion of
such a compact cyclone, maintaining 45 kt seems reasonable for the
initial advisory intensity.

Dry and stable air lies just to the north and west of Carlos, and
occasional intrusions of this air into the cyclone's circulation
could disrupt convection. However, the overnight diurnal convective
maximum could overcome these intrusions over the next couple of
nights. Therefore, only slight weakening is indicated through that
time period. By 48 h, Carlos is expected to move into the stable
airmass which should further disrupt its convection, causing
additional weakening. By late in the forecast period the cyclone
is forecast to be near or have crossed the 26 degree C SST
isotherm. This should cause any remaining convection to gradually
dissipate. Although not shown in the official forecast, it is
possible Carlos will degenerate into a remnant low by the end of
the forecast period, as suggested by the GFS. The latest NHC
intensity forecast is very near the various multi-model consensus
solutions.

Carlos is beginning to show signs of slowing and turning to the
left, with the initial motion now 260/6 kt. Model guidance remains
in good agreement through 48 h, with the storm slowing and turning
west-southwest as a mid-level ridge becomes oriented SW-NE to the
north of the cyclone. There is still a vast amount of track guidance
spread beyond 72 h, but not as much as earlier today. The GFS, which
continues to be the easternmost solution has shifted well west of
its previous track, showing Carlos turning northwest in a few days
in response to a building ridge to its east, and weakening ridge to
the north. The remaining guidance maintains the ridge to the north
and shows Carlos turning west by midweek, then west-northwest by
late this week. The official NHC forecast is near the previous one
through 48 h. Beyond 48 h, large adjustments were required to
accommodate the continuing westward trends in the guidance.
Despite the abrupt shift in the official forecast for the latter
half of the period, it remains well east of the consensus and the
majority of available track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 11.7N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 11.4N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 11.0N 128.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 10.6N 129.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 10.4N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 10.3N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 10.3N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 10.7N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 11.4N 132.7W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 132035
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlos Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
200 PM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...CARLOS SLOWLY MARCHING WESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 126.6W
ABOUT 1345 MI...2160 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 126.6 West. Carlos is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
west-southwest at a slower forward speed is forecast to occur this
evening and continue through Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some fluctuations in strength are possible over the next couple of
days. A weakening trend is expected to begin by midweek.

Carlos remains a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 132035
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021
2100 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 126.6W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 126.6W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 126.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 11.4N 127.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 11.0N 128.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 10.6N 129.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 10.4N 130.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 10.3N 130.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 10.3N 131.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 10.7N 132.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 11.4N 132.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 126.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 131559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 13.06.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 96.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.06.2021 0 15.5N 96.1W 1010 20
0000UTC 14.06.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 94.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.06.2021 0 18.7N 94.2W 1011 16
0000UTC 14.06.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ANALYSED POSITION : 11.9N 125.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.06.2021 0 11.9N 125.6W 1006 30
0000UTC 14.06.2021 12 11.4N 126.5W 1005 32
1200UTC 14.06.2021 24 11.0N 127.3W 1005 29
0000UTC 15.06.2021 36 10.3N 128.0W 1005 29
1200UTC 15.06.2021 48 10.1N 128.4W 1005 26
0000UTC 16.06.2021 60 10.3N 128.8W 1006 28
1200UTC 16.06.2021 72 10.5N 128.8W 1006 25
0000UTC 17.06.2021 84 10.9N 128.6W 1006 21
1200UTC 17.06.2021 96 11.2N 128.2W 1006 21
0000UTC 18.06.2021 108 11.9N 127.3W 1006 22
1200UTC 18.06.2021 120 12.3N 126.3W 1007 20
0000UTC 19.06.2021 132 12.8N 125.8W 1008 18
1200UTC 19.06.2021 144 12.4N 124.9W 1009 19

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 33.1N 76.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.06.2021 24 33.6N 75.5W 1008 22
0000UTC 15.06.2021 36 35.0N 72.4W 1006 30
1200UTC 15.06.2021 48 37.8N 66.1W 1003 43
0000UTC 16.06.2021 60 41.2N 59.3W 1006 37
1200UTC 16.06.2021 72 43.5N 53.3W 1011 29
0000UTC 17.06.2021 84 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 131559

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 131559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.06.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 96.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.06.2021 15.5N 96.1W WEAK
00UTC 14.06.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 94.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.06.2021 18.7N 94.2W WEAK
00UTC 14.06.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ANALYSED POSITION : 11.9N 125.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.06.2021 11.9N 125.6W WEAK
00UTC 14.06.2021 11.4N 126.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.06.2021 11.0N 127.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.06.2021 10.3N 128.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.06.2021 10.1N 128.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.06.2021 10.3N 128.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.06.2021 10.5N 128.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.06.2021 10.9N 128.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.06.2021 11.2N 128.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.06.2021 11.9N 127.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.06.2021 12.3N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.06.2021 12.8N 125.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.06.2021 12.4N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 33.1N 76.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.06.2021 33.6N 75.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.06.2021 35.0N 72.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.06.2021 37.8N 66.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.06.2021 41.2N 59.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.06.2021 43.5N 53.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.06.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 131559

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 131600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 11.9N 125.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 125.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 11.6N 126.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 11.1N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 10.7N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 10.4N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 10.4N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.0N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.8N 129.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.2N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
131600Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 126.0W.
13JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1335
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132200Z, 140400Z, 141000Z AND 141600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 131448
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
800 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Deep convection has persisted over the center of Carlos throughout
the night and a new convective burst with cloud tops of -60 to -70
degrees C is occuring over the estimated center location. A blend
of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support
increasing the initial intensity to 45 kt. This seems reasonable,
as an earlier ASCAT-B overpass had several vectors of 40-41 kt,
and the vortex likely has spun up further due to the ongoing deep
convection.

Carlos continues to move west at around 7 kt, steered by a
mid-level ridge to the north. This ridge is forecast to become
oriented northeast to southwest later today and prevail over the
next couple days which should cause the cyclone to move slowly
west-southwestward. After 48 h the models diverge significantly in
their track solutions, with the GFS and ECMWF turning the system
abruptly northward, while most of the other guidance has a more
westward then west-northwestward motion beyond 72 h. There is a mid-
to upper-level low currently located west of Mexico that the models
are handling differently. The easternmost track solutions for Carlos
weaken this feature more quickly and replace it with a ridge to the
east of Carlos, while the western solutions keep the feature around,
delaying the more poleward motion of the cyclone. The latest NHC
track forecast is near the previous one through 48 h, but is shifted
west thereafter. Still, the NHC forecast track is well east of the
consensus after 48 h. Needless to say the track forecast confidence
beyond day 2 is low.

Northerly shear of 10-15 kt and the proximity to dry and stable
mid-level air to its north should cause periodic weakening of the
storm's deep convection, which would prevent any further
strengthening, and Carlos is expected to hold its current
intensity for the next couple of days. Thereafter, regardless of
the western or eastern track model solutions, Carlos is expected to
encounter an even drier and more stable airmass and cooler sea
surface temperatures. This should cause a weakening trend to begin
by mid-week. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed
from the previous one, and is close to the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 11.8N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 11.6N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 11.1N 127.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 10.7N 128.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 10.4N 128.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 10.4N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 11.0N 129.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 12.8N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 15.2N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 131447
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlos Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
800 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...CARLOS STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 126.0W
ABOUT 1305 MI...2105 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 126.0 West. Carlos is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
west-southwest at a slower forward speed is forecast to occur this
afternoon and continue through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days. Some slow weakening is expected by midweek.

Carlos remains a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 131447
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021
1500 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 126.0W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 126.0W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 125.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 11.6N 126.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 11.1N 127.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 10.7N 128.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 10.4N 128.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 10.4N 129.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 11.0N 129.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 12.8N 129.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 15.2N 129.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 126.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 131000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 11.9N 125.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 125.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 11.6N 126.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 11.2N 126.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 10.7N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 10.3N 127.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 10.2N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 10.6N 128.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.0N 128.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.0N 127.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
131000Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 125.4W.
13JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1322
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131600Z, 132200Z, 140400Z AND 141000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 130836
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
200 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Infrared and scatterometer satellite data indicate that Carlos
remains a compact tropical cyclone. Two ASCAT passes between
0400-0500 UTC revealed a radius of maximum wind of 10-12 nmi and
tropical-storm-force winds that only extended outward about 20 nmi.
Cloud tops colder than -50C only extend outward about 60 nmi from
the center. The earlier ASCAT-A/-B passes contained peak surface
wind vectors of 37 kt/40 kt, respectively, so the estimated
intensity has been increased to 40 kt for this advisory, which
could be a little conservative owing to the small size of the
cyclone and possible undersampling of the scatterometer instrument.

The initial motion estimate is due west or 270/07 kt. There is
little change to the previous NHC track forecast or reasoning. The
latest model runs are in good agreement on Carlos turning toward the
west-southwest later today, followed by a southwestward motion on
Monday and Tuesday as a low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the
cyclone builds southward. By day 3, the models diverge significantly
when the deep-layer steering currents collapse, followed by possible
rapid weakening. The ECMWF weakens Carlos into a shallow remnant low
by 72 h, with the shallow vortex then being driven southwestward by
a strong low-level ridge to the north and northeast. In contrast,
the GFS and some of the other global and regional models keep Carlos
stronger and vertically deeper, which results in a ridge to the east
lifting the cyclone out toward the north. Given the large spread in
the track guidance on days 4 and 5, the new NHC track forecast is
similar to but slightly slower than the previous advisory track, and
close to a blend of the TVCE and GFEX simple consensus track models.

Carlos' small size in combination with the relatively low deep-layer
vertical shear of 5-10 kt for the next 36 h or so would normally
argue for significant strengthening. However, the cyclone's
proximity to very dry mid-level and cooler sea-surface just to its
north and northwest is expected to result in the periodic
entrainment of stable air for the 72 h or so, resulting in
intermittent disruptions of the central deep convection. Thus,
little change in strength is forecast during that time. Thereafter,
the combination of increasing southwesterly wind shear and sub-27C
sea-surface temperatures along the track is expected to induce
gradual weakening. The official intensity forecast is similar to
the previous advisory, and closely follows the IVCN and HCCA
intensity consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 11.9N 125.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 11.6N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 11.2N 126.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 10.7N 127.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 10.3N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 10.2N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 10.6N 128.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 12.0N 128.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 14.0N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 130833
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlos Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
200 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...CARLOS STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE OPEN EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 125.3W
ABOUT 1265 MI...2035 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 125.3 West. Carlos is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn toward the
west-southwest at a slower forward speed is forecast to occur this
afternoon and continue through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional slight strengthening is forecast
during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Carlos remains a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 130832
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021
0900 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 125.3W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 125.3W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 125.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 11.6N 126.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 11.2N 126.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 10.7N 127.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 10.3N 127.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 10.2N 128.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 10.6N 128.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 12.0N 128.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 14.0N 127.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 125.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 130313 CCA
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 2...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
800 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021

Corrected humidity value in third paragraph.

Satellite imagery indicates improved organization this evening as a
cold convective burst has expanded over the estimated low-level
circulation center. A 2032 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass indicated that
underneath this convective burst was also improved convective
banding, especially over the southern semicircle. The latest round
of Dvorak satellite estimates were T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35
kt from SAB. The most recent UW-CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique
value was also T2.5/35 kt. Favoring the higher intensity estimates,
and assuming some intensification has occurred from the earlier
scatterometer passes, Tropical Depression Three-E has been upgraded
to Tropical Storm Carlos with an advisory intensity of 35 kt.

Carlos appears to be gradually turning leftward and slowing down
this evening, with the most recent estimated motion at 270/06 kt.
The mid-level ridge north of Carlos is forecast to gradually weaken,
shift northward, and then be replaced by a deep-layer trough that
will essentially shut down the steering currents near the cyclone
after 24 h. Between 36 to 48 h the motion of Carlos is likely to
slow to a crawl, generally to the west-southwest. By 72 h, another
mid-to-upper level trough digging in from the northwest will finally
induce some northerly steering, helping Carlos to gradually
accelerate to the north. The latest track forecast is a bit west of
the previous NHC forecast owing to the current motion, but remains
very close to the HFIP corrected consensus and TCVE track consensus.
It should be noted that there remains large spread in the guidance
on how quickly Carlos slows down, with the latest GFS forecast
slowing down the cyclone almost immediately, while the CMC and ECMWF
runs show a much faster track to the west-southwest.

The intensity forecast is tricky due to both the small size of the
tropical cyclone and also the less than optimal environment
surrounding the system. While deep-layer vertical wind shear is only
expected to be low to moderate over the next 72 h, mid-level shear
out of the north to northwest is a bit higher (15-25 kt) and could
occasionally import very dry mid-level air from that direction. In
fact, ECMWF-SHIPS mid-level humidity values gradually decrease to
under 50 percent in the next 36 h. In addition, the very slow motion
of Carlos expected between 24-72 h could potentially upwell cooler
sea-surface temperatures than the current 27-28 C values along the
forecast track. For this reason, the latest NHC intensity forecast
is fairly conservative, forecasting a peak intensity of 45 kt
between 24-60 h, which is close to the HFIP corrected consensus and
peak intensity of the most recent HWRF run. Thereafter, as the storm
begins to gain latitude, increasingly dry, stable air in addition to
decreasing sea surface temperatures should lead to gradual weakening
beyond 60 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 11.9N 124.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 11.8N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 11.4N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 10.8N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 10.6N 127.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 10.3N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 10.3N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 11.5N 128.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 13.5N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 130400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOS) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 11.9N 124.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 124.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 11.8N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 11.4N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 10.8N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 10.6N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 10.3N 127.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 10.3N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 11.5N 128.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.5N 127.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130400Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 124.7W.
13JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1309
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131000Z, 131600Z, 132200Z AND 140400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 130256
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
800 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021

Satellite imagery indicates improved organization this evening as a
cold convective burst has expanded over the estimated low-level
circulation center. A 2032 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass indicated that
underneath this convective burst was also improved convective
banding, especially over the southern semicircle. The latest round
of Dvorak satellite estimates were T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35
kt from SAB. The most recent UW-CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique
value was also T2.5/35 kt. Favoring the higher intensity estimates,
and assuming some intensification has occurred from the earlier
scatterometer passes, Tropical Depression Three-E has been upgraded
to Tropical Storm Carlos with an advisory intensity of 35 kt.

Carlos appears to be gradually turning leftward and slowing down
this evening, with the most recent estimated motion at 270/06 kt.
The mid-level ridge north of Carlos is forecast to gradually weaken,
shift northward, and then be replaced by a deep-layer trough that
will essentially shut down the steering currents near the cyclone
after 24 h. Between 36 to 48 h the motion of Carlos is likely to
slow to a crawl, generally to the west-southwest. By 72 h, another
mid-to-upper level trough digging in from the northwest will finally
induce some northerly steering, helping Carlos to gradually
accelerate to the north. The latest track forecast is a bit west of
the previous NHC forecast owing to the current motion, but remains
very close to the HFIP corrected consensus and TCVE track consensus.
It should be noted that there remains large spread in the guidance
on how quickly Carlos slows down, with the latest GFS forecast
slowing down the cyclone almost immediately, while the CMC and ECMWF
runs show a much faster track to the west-southwest.

The intensity forecast is tricky due to both the small size of the
tropical cyclone and also the less than optimal environment
surrounding the system. While deep-layer vertical wind shear is only
expected to be low to moderate over the next 72 h, mid-level shear
out of the north to northwest is a bit higher (15-25 kt) and could
occasionally import very dry mid-level air from that direction. In
fact, ECMWF-SHIPS mid-level humidity values gradually decrease to
under 500ver the next 36 h. In addition, the very slow motion of
Carlos expected between 24-72 h could potentially upwell cooler
sea-surface temperatures than the current 27-28 C values along the
forecast track. For this reason, the latest NHC intensity forecast
is fairly conservative, forecasting a peak intensity of 45 kt
between 24-60 h, which is close to the HFIP corrected consensus and
peak intensity of the most recent HWRF run. Thereafter, as the storm
begins to gain latitude, increasingly dry, stable air in addition to
decreasing sea surface temperatures should lead to gradual weakening
beyond 60 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 11.9N 124.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 11.8N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 11.4N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 10.8N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 10.6N 127.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 10.3N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 10.3N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 11.5N 128.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 13.5N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 130253
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlos Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
800 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES INTO TROPICAL STORM CARLOS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 124.5W
ABOUT 1225 MI...1970 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 124.5 West. Carlos is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is
expected to gradually slow down with a turn to the west-southwest
over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 130253
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021
0300 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 124.5W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 124.5W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 124.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 11.8N 125.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 11.4N 126.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 10.8N 127.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 10.6N 127.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 10.3N 127.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 10.3N 128.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 11.5N 128.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 13.5N 127.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 124.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 122200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (THREE-E) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (THREE-E) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 11.8N 123.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 123.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 11.9N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 11.7N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 11.4N 126.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 11.0N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 10.8N 126.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 11.0N 126.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 12.5N 126.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 15.2N 126.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
122200Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 123.7W.
12JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (THREE-E), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1300 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130400Z, 131000Z, 131600Z AND 132200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 122046
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
200 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021

The disturbance that has been tracked westward for the past several
days across the open waters of the the tropical eastern Pacific has
finally established a sufficiently well-defined low-level
circulation to be designated as Tropical Depression Three-E.
Convection increased last night and began to consolidate, while
satellite images and microwave data this morning indicated that
there was evidence of a well-defined low developing. This was later
confirmed by a pair of ASCAT overpasses. These overpasses showed a
compact radius of maximum winds. And, although the ASCAT-A data
had a few vectors between 30-35 kt, these were not homogeneous and
appeared unrepresentative of the system's intensity. In addition,
the rather ragged satellite appearance and the Dvorak intensity
estimate of 2.0 from SAB are suggestive that this system should be
initialized as a 30-kt depression for this advisory.

The environment surrounding the depression is moderately conducive
for gradual strengthening, with SSTs of 27-28 degrees C, mid-level
RH values between 50-60 percent, and vertical wind shear of about
5-10 kt. These conditions are expected to continue for the next 2-3
days. By 72 h, dry air and subsidence are expected to hinder any
further intensification and should begin a weakening trend. By late
in the forecast period, the system is forecast to cross the 26
degree C isotherm, which should hasten the pace of weakening. The
official intensity closely follows the HFIP corrected consensus
HCCA, which shows the depression becoming a tropical storm tonight,
and levels off its intensity by 48 h, followed by a weakening trend
after 60 h.

A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is steering it at a
somewhat uncertain 275/08 kt. This ridge is forecast by nearly all
of the models to weaken over the next couple of days, leaving the
depression in a region of very weak steering currents through
early next week. A mid-upper level trough digging southward to the
northwest of the cyclone should induce a northerly component of
motion along with an increase in forward speed by midweek. As
said, there is good agreement on the pattern, however, the models
vary greatly on how abruptly they slow the system. This is resulting
in a track model spread of about 300 n mi by 72 h. The NHC track
forecast tries to split the difference by closely following the TVCE
and TVCN consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 11.8N 123.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 11.9N 124.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 11.7N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 11.4N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 11.0N 126.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 10.8N 126.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 11.0N 126.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 12.5N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 15.2N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 122045
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
200 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EAST
PACIFIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 123.6W
ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E
was located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 123.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual
slowing of the forward motion is expected over the next few days
along with a turn toward the west-southwest and then southwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight.
The system is expected to begin weakening by Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 122044
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021
2100 UTC SAT JUN 12 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 123.6W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 123.6W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 123.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 11.9N 124.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 11.7N 125.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 11.4N 126.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 11.0N 126.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 10.8N 126.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 11.0N 126.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 12.5N 126.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 15.2N 126.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 123.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>