Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BLANCA-21
Off-shore

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2021-06-04 09:38


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 16.2N 115.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 115.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.4N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.4N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.4N 119.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.4N 121.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.4N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
041000Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 115.7W.
04JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BLANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
995 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND 051000Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-06-04 08:34


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 040833
TCDEP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Blanca Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
200 AM PDT Fri Jun 04 2021

Blanca has been devoid of organized deep convection since midday
yesterday, with the last convective burst near the center ceasing
over 15 hours ago. Since that time there have been a few convective
cells noted 120 to 150 n mi east-northeast of the center, but these
have been short lived. This is a big change from this time
yesterday, when a large burst of deep convection developed during
the diurnal maximum close the center of the cyclone. This trend is
indicative of the strong west-southwesterly shear and the dry and
stable atmospheric environment taking their toll on the system.
These hostile environmental factors are not expected to improve,
while the forward path of the cyclone takes it over progressively
cooler waters. Therefore, it is anticipated that persistent deep
convection will not redevelop near the center of the system, and
Blanca is being designated as a remnant low. The low is expected to
gradually spin down and is likely to dissipate within the next few
days. The overnight ASCAT overpasses did not sample the center of
the system, so a blend of the T/CI numbers of 1.0/2.0 from the most
recent satellite intensity estimate from TAFB supports maintaining
the advisory intensity at 25 kt.

Over the past 12 hours Blanca has been moving west-northwestward, or
300/06 kt. A turn to the west is expected later this morning as the
shallow system gets caught up in the flow around a low-level ridge
to the north. This westward motion should continue until the system
dissipates. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the
previous one and is near the multi-model consensus.

This is the last NHC advisory on Blanca. For additional information
on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 16.3N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 04/1800Z 16.4N 116.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/0600Z 16.4N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1800Z 16.4N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0600Z 16.4N 121.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1800Z 16.4N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2021-06-04 08:34


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 040832
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Blanca Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
200 AM PDT Fri Jun 04 2021

...BLANCA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 115.6W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Blanca
was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 115.6 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph
(11 km/h). A turn to the west is expected later this morning, and
this motion is expected to continue through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The remnant low is expected to slowly weaken and dissipate within
the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Blanca. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2021-06-04 08:33


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 040832
TCMEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022021
0900 UTC FRI JUN 04 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 115.6W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 115.6W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 115.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.4N 116.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.4N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.4N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.4N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.4N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 115.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON BLANCA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

2021-06-04 03:00


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 040400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 15.6N 114.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 114.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.7N 115.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 15.7N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 15.8N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.9N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.0N 121.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
040400Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 114.7W.
04JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BLANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1038 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041000Z, 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-06-04 02:36


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 040234
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Blanca Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
900 PM MDT Thu Jun 03 2021

Blanca is producing a few convective cells about 120 n mi to the
east-northeast of its center, but the last significant deep
convective bursts near the center stopped about 10 to 11 hours ago.
With not much convective organization, the Dvorak classification
from TAFB decreased to T1.0/2.0, and Blanca's initial intensity is
therefore lowered to 25 kt. Various analyses indicate that
west-southwesterly shear has increased to between 25-30 kt, and
the ambient environment is quite dry and subsident. In addition,
Blanca is close to reaching waters cooler than 26 degrees Celsius.
Due to these conditions, Blanca is expected to gradually spin down
over the next few days, and if deep convection does not redevelop
soon, Blanca would be declared a remnant low overnight or Friday
morning. The remnant low is then likely to dissipate in about 3
days.

Blanca has been meandering a bit for much of the day, but the
12-hour average motion is westward (275 degrees) at 3 kt. A
low-level ridge to the north should continue steering Blanca
generally westward but a little faster during the next few days.
The updated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous
forecast and is a blend of the TVCE model consensus and the HFIP
Corrected Consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 15.7N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 15.7N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/0000Z 15.7N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1200Z 15.8N 118.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0000Z 15.9N 120.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1200Z 16.0N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2021-06-04 02:35


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 040233
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Blanca Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
900 PM MDT Thu Jun 03 2021

...BLANCA WEAKENS...
...VERY CLOSE TO BECOMING A REMNANT LOW...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 114.6W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Blanca
was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 114.6 West. Blanca
is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slightly faster
motion toward the west is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts. Blanca is forecast to become a remnant low
overnight or Friday morning, with its winds decreasing further
during the next few days. The remnant low is expected to dissipate
early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2021-06-04 02:34


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 040233
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022021
0300 UTC FRI JUN 04 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 114.6W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 114.6W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 114.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.7N 115.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.7N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.8N 118.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.9N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.0N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 114.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

2021-06-03 21:35


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 032200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 15.5N 114.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 114.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.5N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.6N 117.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 15.7N 118.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 15.8N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.9N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
032200Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 114.6W.
03JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BLANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1045 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040400Z, 041000Z, 041600Z AND 042200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-06-03 20:43


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 032041
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Blanca Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
300 PM MDT Thu Jun 03 2021

Like the past two days, deep convection that had been present near
Blanca this morning has sheared away and collapsed this afternoon,
revealing an increasingly diffuse structure with multiple low-level
swirls. Subjective Dvorak estimates at 1800Z were 30 kt from TAFB
and too weak to classify by SAB. The most recent UW-CIMSS ADT
objective estimate was a little higher at 35 kt. Unfortunately,
Blanca was missed by all three scatterometer overpasses this
afternoon. However, assuming little change in the wind field has
occurred from last night, the current intensity has been held at 30
kt for this advisory.

Blanca's mean circulation center has resumed a slow due west motion
at 270/3 kt, though some uncertainty exists since multiple low-level
swirls are evident on visible satellite imagery. Now that convection
has weakened once again, the steering currents will be dominated by
the flow around a poleward low-level ridge. This flow is expected to
keep Blanca on a westward heading for the remainder of its lifespan.
The latest track forecast is largely an update from the previous
forecast cycle and is in close agreement between the TCVE and HCCA
consensus aids.

Now that convection near the center of Blanca has largely
dissipated, the clock has been reset for its remaining lifespan as a
tropical cyclone. While the current NHC forecast does not preclude
the possibility that another convective burst could occur over the
next 24 h, increasingly dry, stable air from the northwest and
continued unfavorable southwesterly vertical wind shear should limit
any significant convective organization near Blanca's center. The
latest NHC intensity forecast expects Blanca to become a remnant low
on Friday, with the remnant low likely opening up into a trough by
the end of the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 15.5N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 15.5N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 15.6N 117.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0600Z 15.7N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1800Z 15.8N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0600Z 15.9N 121.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart

>

2021-06-03 20:42


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 032041
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Blanca Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
300 PM MDT Thu Jun 03 2021

...BLANCA LOSING ORGANIZATION...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 114.3W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Blanca
was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 114.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A general
westward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next several days,
and Blanca is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

2021-06-03 20:41


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 032039
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022021
2100 UTC THU JUN 03 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.3W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.3W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.6N 117.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.7N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.8N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.9N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 114.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART



>

2021-06-03 15:12


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 031600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 15.7N 113.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 113.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.7N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.7N 116.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 15.8N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.0N 119.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.2N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.4N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
031600Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 114.1W.
03JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BLANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1037 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032200Z, 040400Z, 041000Z AND 041600Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-06-03 14:39


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 031437
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Blanca Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
900 AM MDT Thu Jun 03 2021

The satellite presentation of Blanca this morning is a bit better
organized with the diurnal convective maximum resulting in a region
of cold cloud tops between -75 to -80 C with some slight banding
near and to the northeast of the estimated center. Subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates were 30 kt from both SAB and TAFB, while the
most recent UW-CIMSS ADT intensity estimate was 33 kt. The initial
intensity was kept at 30 kt for this advisory.

The ongoing burst of convective activity has nudged the center of
Blanca slightly further north and slowed the system further, with an
average 12-h heading of 275/3 kt. Assuming that the convective
activity this morning is transient, the shallow cyclone should
remain steered westward for the foreseeable future by a poleward
low-level ridge. The latest forecast is similar to the previous
cycle, and lies just slightly south of the TVCE consensus guidance.

The ongoing convective activity near Blanca has given it at least
another 12-18 hours of life. In fact, it would not be out of the
question that Blanca could briefly regain tropical storm status if
the convection proves to be more persistent, especially since the
cyclone remains over 27 C sea-surface temperatures and these values
only slowly decrease as the forecast track parallels the 26-deg-C
isotherm. However, unfavorable strong vertical wind shear resulting
in entrainment of dry, stable air to the northwest should eventually
win out, with the latest NHC forecast still expecting Blanca to
become a remnant low in 24 h, followed by dissipation in 72-96 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 15.7N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 15.7N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 15.7N 116.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0000Z 15.8N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z 16.0N 119.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0000Z 16.2N 120.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1200Z 16.4N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart

>

2021-06-03 14:36


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 031434
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Blanca Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
900 AM MDT Thu Jun 03 2021

...BLANCA STILL A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT DRIFTS WEST...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 114.0W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Blanca
was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 114.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A general
westward motion accompanied by a gradual increase in forward speed
is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next several days and
Blanca is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by tomorrow.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

2021-06-03 14:35


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 031433
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022021
1500 UTC THU JUN 03 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 114.0W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 114.0W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 113.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.7N 115.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.7N 116.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.8N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 119.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.2N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.4N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 114.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART



>

2021-06-03 09:17


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 031000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 15.6N 113.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 113.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.6N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.5N 115.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.5N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 15.6N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 15.8N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.0N 120.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
031000Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 113.6W.
03JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BLANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1047 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031600Z, 032200Z, 040400Z AND 041000Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-06-03 08:40


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 030838
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Blanca Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
300 AM MDT Thu Jun 03 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that a sheared convective burst is
occurring not far from the center of Blanca in the northeastern
quadrant, with additional convection in a ragged band farther from
the center in the eastern semicircle. Based on this, Blanca is
being maintained as a tropical depression on this advisory. Recent
scatterometer overpasses showed a large area of 25-30 kt winds, so
the initial intensity is being held at 30 kt. The convective
flare-up is expected to be short-lived, and Blanca is still
forecast to become a remnant low in about 24 h due to continued
shear and a drier environment. The global models suggest the
remnant low should dissipate between 72-96 h.

The center of Blanca is a little farther north than in the previous
advisory, possible due to re-formation from the convective burst.
Other than that, there is little change in the track forecast
philosophy. Since Blanca is now a shallow cyclone, it is forecast
to be steered slowly westward by a low-level ridge to its north for
the remainder of its existence. The track guidance has shifted a
bit northward since the previous advisory. Therefore, the new
forecast track is also shifted northward, but lies a bit to the
south of the consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 15.6N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 15.6N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 15.5N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1800Z 15.5N 116.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0600Z 15.6N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1800Z 15.8N 119.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0600Z 16.0N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2021-06-03 08:39


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 030838
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Blanca Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
300 AM MDT Thu Jun 03 2021

...BLANCA HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 113.5W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Blanca
was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 113.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this
general motion, with some slight increase in forward speed, is
expected through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and Blanca
is likely to degenerate into a remnant low later today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

2021-06-03 08:39


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 030837
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022021
0900 UTC THU JUN 03 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 113.5W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 113.5W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 113.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.6N 114.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.5N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.5N 116.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.6N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.8N 119.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.0N 120.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 113.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2021-06-03 03:59


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 030358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 03.06.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 112.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.06.2021 0 15.3N 112.9W 1003 25
1200UTC 03.06.2021 12 15.3N 113.6W 1004 24
0000UTC 04.06.2021 24 15.2N 114.7W 1004 23
1200UTC 04.06.2021 36 15.2N 116.0W 1006 24
0000UTC 05.06.2021 48 15.1N 117.4W 1006 23
1200UTC 05.06.2021 60 15.6N 119.0W 1008 22
0000UTC 06.06.2021 72 15.5N 120.2W 1008 22
1200UTC 06.06.2021 84 15.5N 121.9W 1009 21
0000UTC 07.06.2021 96 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030358

>

2021-06-03 03:59


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 030358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.06.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 112.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.06.2021 15.3N 112.9W WEAK
12UTC 03.06.2021 15.3N 113.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.06.2021 15.2N 114.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.06.2021 15.2N 116.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.06.2021 15.1N 117.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.06.2021 15.6N 119.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.06.2021 15.5N 120.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.06.2021 15.5N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.06.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030358

>

2021-06-03 03:26


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 030400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 15.4N 113.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 113.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.3N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.2N 114.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.1N 116.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 15.0N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 15.2N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.3N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
030400Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 113.3W.
03JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BLANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1062 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031000Z, 031600Z, 032200Z AND 040400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-06-03 02:35


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 030233
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Blanca Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
900 PM MDT Wed Jun 02 2021

For the most part, Blanca consists of a swirl of low-level clouds
with shallow convection, and a few isolated deeper cells, located
at least 50 n mi east of the center of circulation. Based on that
structure alone, Blanca is close to becoming a remnant low.
Maximum winds are still estimated to be 30 kt as a blend of earlier
scatterometer data and the latest Dvorak CI numbers, which range
between 30 and 35 kt from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS ADT. Southwesterly
shear of about 20 kt is forecast to strengthen further during the
next 36 hours, and with Blanca moving into a drier and more
subsident environment, at best the cyclone will only be able to
produce occasional and temporary bursts of convection. Therefore,
Blanca is now expected to lose its tropical cyclone characteristics,
and become a remnant low, by this time tomorrow. Its winds will
continue to gradually diminish, and the remnant low is likely to
dissipate in 4 or 5 days.

Blanca appears to have lost some latitude, and is moving slowly
south-of-due-west (265/4 kt). Now a shallow cyclone, Blanca is
forecast to be steered slowly westward by a low-level ridge
to its north for the remainder of its existence. There have been
no significant changes to the track forecast reasoning, and the
updated NHC track forecast lies closest to the ECMWF and HCCA
models, and just a little south of the previous NHC forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 15.4N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 15.3N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 15.2N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1200Z 15.1N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0000Z 15.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1200Z 15.2N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0000Z 15.3N 120.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2021-06-03 02:34


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 030232
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Blanca Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
900 PM MDT Wed Jun 02 2021

...BLANCA LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 113.2W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Blanca
was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 113.2 West. Blanca
is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general
motion, with some slight increase in forward speed, is expected
through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and Blanca
is likely to degenerate into a remnant low on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2021-06-03 02:33


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 030232
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022021
0300 UTC THU JUN 03 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 113.2W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 113.2W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 113.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.3N 113.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.2N 114.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.1N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.2N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.3N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 113.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

2021-06-02 21:37


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 022200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 013
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 15.5N 112.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 112.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.5N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.4N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.3N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.2N 117.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 15.2N 118.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 15.2N 119.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
022200Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 112.9W.
02JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BLANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1061 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030400Z, 031000Z, 031600Z AND 032200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-06-02 21:12


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 022111
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Blanca Discussion Number 13...Retransmitted
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
300 PM MDT Wed Jun 02 2021

The satellite structure of Blanca has continued to deteriorate this
afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows an exposed low-level
swirl, and that circulation is becoming increasingly elongated. The
nearest deep convection is now more than 100 nm southeast of the
circulation center. A fortuitous 1519 UTC ASCAT-A pass over Blanca
revealed that the tropical cyclone may have been weaker than earlier
assessed with a peak wind retrieval of only 28 kt in the
northeastern quadrant. Even after accounting for instrument
undersampling, the lack of significant convection near the wind
field since that time has likely resulted in further spin down of
the vortex. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates were also down to
30 kt from SAB and 35 kt from TAFB. Given the deterioration of the
structure since then, Blanca is being downgraded to a 30-kt
tropical depression at this time.

As Blanca's low-level circulation has become increasingly detached
from the deep convection, the motion of the storm has turned more
westward at 280/4 kt. Now that Blanca appears to be a shallow
low-level feature, it will be primarily steered by the low-level
easterly trade wind flow. This will force Blanca westward over the
next several days as the circulation slowly spins down. The latest
NHC track forecast is largely an update from the previous one and
remains closest to the HCCA consensus model which is on the left
side of the guidance envelope.

Aside from the limited deep convection well separated from Blanca's
center, the storm already barely meets the criteria of a tropical
cyclone. It appears that dry, stable air that entered the
circulation from the northwest, aided by unfavorable vertical wind
shear, is winning the battle over sufficiently warm sea-surface
temperatures beneath the circulation. With the wind field spinning
down compared to 24 h ago, nocturnal re-formation of deep central
convection will find it more challenging to overcome the dry stable
airmass that the storm is embedded in. In addition, both the 12z
GFS- and ECMWF-model-forecast simulated IR brightness temperature
have trended towards less convective activity the last few cycles.
The current NHC forecast assumes occasional diurnal convective
bursts will help to maintain the status of the tropical cyclone for
another 24-36 h, but it is possible that Blanca could become a
remnant low as soon as tomorrow afternoon if convection does not
redevelop by then.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 15.5N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 15.5N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 15.4N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 15.3N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 15.2N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0600Z 15.2N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1800Z 15.2N 119.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart

>

2021-06-02 21:01


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 022059
TCDEP2


Tropical Depression Blanca Discussion Number 13...Retransmitted

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021

300 PM MDT Wed Jun 02 2021



The satellite structure of Blanca has continued to deteriorate this

afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows an exposed low-level

swirl, and that circulation is becoming increasingly elongated. The

nearest deep convection is now more than 100 nm southeast of the

circulation center. A fortuitous 1519 UTC ASCAT-A pass over Blanca

revealed that the tropical cyclone may have been weaker than earlier

assessed with a peak wind retrieval of only 28 kt in the

northeastern quadrant. Even after accounting for instrument

undersampling, the lack of significant convection near the wind

field since that time has likely resulted in further spin down of

the vortex. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates were also down to

30 kt from SAB and 35 kt from TAFB. Given the deterioration of the

structure since then, Blanca is being downgraded to a 30-kt

tropical depression at this time.



As Blanca's low-level circulation has become increasingly detached

from the deep convection, the motion of the storm has turned more

westward at 280/4 kt. Now that Blanca appears to be a shallow

low-level feature, it will be primarily steered by the low-level

easterly trade wind flow. This will force Blanca westward over the

next several days as the circulation slowly spins down. The latest

NHC track forecast is largely an update from the previous one and

remains closest to the HCCA consensus model which is on the left

side of the guidance envelope.



Aside from the limited deep convection well separated from Blanca's

center, the storm already barely meets the criteria of a tropical

cyclone. It appears that dry, stable air that entered the

circulation from the northwest, aided by unfavorable vertical wind

shear, is winning the battle over sufficiently warm sea-surface

temperatures beneath the circulation. With the wind field spinning

down compared to 24 h ago, nocturnal re-formation of deep central

convection will find it more challenging to overcome the dry stable

airmass that the storm is embedded in. In addition, both the 12z

GFS- and ECMWF-model-forecast simulated IR brightness temperature

have trended towards less convective activity the last few cycles.

The current NHC forecast assumes occasional diurnal convective

bursts will help to maintain the status of the tropical cyclone for

another 24-36 h, but it is possible that Blanca could become a

remnant low as soon as tomorrow afternoon if convection does not

redevelop by then.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT 02/2100Z 15.5N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 03/0600Z 15.5N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 03/1800Z 15.4N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH

36H 04/0600Z 15.3N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH

48H 04/1800Z 15.2N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

60H 05/0600Z 15.2N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 05/1800Z 15.2N 119.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Papin/Stewart

>

2021-06-02 20:51


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 022048 CCA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022021
2100 UTC WED JUN 02 2021

CORRECTED DATE OF DISSIPATION

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 112.8W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 15SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 112.8W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 112.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.5N 113.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.4N 114.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.3N 115.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.2N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.2N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.2N 119.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 112.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART

>

2021-06-02 20:39


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 022037
TCDEP2


Tropical Depression Blanca Discussion Number 13

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021

300 PM MDT Wed Jun 02 2021



The satellite structure of Blanca has continued to deteriorate this

afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows an exposed low-level

swirl, and that circulation is becoming increasingly elongated. The

nearest deep convection is now more than 100 nm southeast of the

circulation center. A fortuitous 1519 UTC ASCAT-A pass over Blanca

revealed that the tropical cyclone may have been weaker than earlier

assessed with a peak wind retrieval of only 28 kt in the

northeastern quadrant. Even after accounting for instrument

undersampling, the lack of significant convection near the wind

field since that time has likely resulted in further spin down of

the vortex. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates were also down

to 30 kt from SAB and 35 kt from TAFB. Given the deterioration of

the structure since then, Blanca is being downgraded to a 30-kt

tropical depression at this time.



As Blanca's low-level circulation has become increasingly detached

from the deep convection, the motion of the storm has turned more

westward at 280/4 kt. Now that Blanca appears to be a shallow

low-level feature, it will be primarily steered by the low-level

easterly trade wind flow. This will force Blanca westward over the

next several days as the circulation slowly spins down. The latest

NHC track forecast is largely an update from the previous one and

remains closest to the HCCA consensus model which is on the left

side of the guidance envelope.



Aside from the limited deep convection well separated from Blanca's

center, the storm already barely meets the criteria of a tropical

cyclone. It appears that dry, stable air that entered the

circulation from the northwest, aided by unfavorable vertical wind

shear, is winning the battle over sufficiently warm sea-surface

temperatures beneath the circulation. With the wind field spinning

down compared to 24 h ago, nocturnal re-formation of deep central

convection will find it more challenging to overcome the dry stable

airmass that the storm is embedded in. In addition, both the 12z

GFS- and ECMWF-model-forecast simulated IR brightness temperature

have trended towards less convective activity the last few cycles.

The current NHC forecast assumes occasional diurnal convective

bursts will help to maintain the status of the tropical cyclone for

another 24-36 h, but it is possible that Blanca could become a

remnant low as soon as tomorrow afternoon if convection does not

redevelop by then.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT 02/2100Z 15.5N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 03/0600Z 15.5N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 03/1800Z 15.4N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH

36H 04/0600Z 15.3N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH

48H 04/1800Z 15.2N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

60H 05/0600Z 15.2N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 05/1800Z 15.2N 119.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Papin/Stewart

>

2021-06-02 20:38


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 022037
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Blanca Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
300 PM MDT Wed Jun 02 2021

...BLANCA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 112.8W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Blanca
was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 112.8 West. The
depression is now moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue though the end of the
week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional gradual weakening is expected, and Blanca
is forecast to become a remnant low by Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

2021-06-02 20:38


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 022037
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022021
2100 UTC WED JUN 02 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 112.8W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 15SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 112.8W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 112.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.5N 113.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.4N 114.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.3N 115.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.2N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.2N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.2N 119.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 112.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART



>

2021-06-02 15:20


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 021600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 112.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 112.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.6N 112.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.6N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.4N 114.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.3N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 15.3N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 15.3N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 15.3N 120.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.1N 122.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
021600Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 112.3W.
02JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1075
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022200Z, 030400Z, 031000Z AND 031600Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-06-02 14:57


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 021455
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blanca Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
900 AM MDT Wed Jun 02 2021

Similar to yesterday, deep convective activity has waned with Blanca
this morning as the cyclone continues to be impacted by dry-air
entrainment imported by high west-southwesterly vertical wind shear.
The low-level center is once again becoming exposed to the west of
the convective cloud mass. While there has not been any helpful
overnight scatterometer passes, an earlier 0844 UTC AMSR-2 microwave
pass suggested that the low-level circulation is gradually becoming
more diffuse, with several possible low level swirls embedded
within. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are T2.0/35 kt from
SAB and T3.0/45 kt from TAFB, while the most recent UW-CIMSS
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) estimate was 34 kt. The current
intensity estimate was held at 40 kt for this advisory.

Even though current sea surface temperatures remain sufficently warm
underneath the cyclone (27-28 C), low-level, cold-air stratocumulus
clouds can be seen on first-light visible imagery being entrained
into the low-level circulation of Blanca. Strong vertical wind shear
will continue over the next few days as sea surface temperatures
decrease and the environment aloft becomes drier and more stable.
While diurnal convective bursts are still likely to occur during
this time, they will become less organized and more intermittent as
the cyclone succumbs to the increasingly stable environment. The
official NHC intensity forecast still calls for Blanca to become a
tropical depression by Thursday and a remnant low by this weekend,
which is in close agreement with the intensity guidance.

After a minor northward position adjustment, Blanca appears to still
be on a west-northwestward heading, albeit somewhat slower than
earlier, at 300/4 kt. A westward turn is expected over the next 24
hours as Blanca becomes a shallow cyclone and is mainly steered by
the low-level easterly trade wind flow. The latest NHC track
forecast is somewhat further north than the previous forecast early
on, but by the end of the forecast period is very close to the
previous forecast track, and lies close to the HCCA consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 15.5N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 15.6N 112.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 15.6N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 15.4N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 15.3N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 15.3N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 15.3N 118.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1200Z 15.3N 120.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart

>

2021-06-02 14:54


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 021453
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Blanca Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
900 AM MDT Wed Jun 02 2021

...BLANCA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT TURNS WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 112.2W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blanca was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 112.2 West. Blanca is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this slow
motion is expected to continue with a gradual westward turn
expected by this evening. A general westward motion is forecast
through the end of the week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Blanca is expected to
weaken to a tropical depression by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

2021-06-02 14:54


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 021452
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022021
1500 UTC WED JUN 02 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 112.2W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 112.2W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 112.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.6N 112.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.6N 113.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.4N 114.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.3N 116.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.3N 117.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.3N 118.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 15.3N 120.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 112.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART

>

2021-06-02 09:10


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 021000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 14.9N 111.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 111.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 15.1N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.3N 113.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.3N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.3N 115.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.2N 116.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 15.1N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.5N 119.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.0N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
021000Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 112.0W.
02JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1106
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021600Z, 022200Z, 030400Z AND 031000Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-06-02 08:40


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 020838
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blanca Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
300 AM MDT Wed Jun 02 2021

Recent satellite imagery indicates southwesterly vertical wind shear
continues to impinge on the western side of Blanca's circulation.
The coldest cloud tops are displaced to the east of the estimated
center, and deep convection is becoming more limited in coverage.
GMI microwave data from 0450 UTC suggest the cyclone's low-level
circulation is losing some definition and may contain multiple
centers. Unfortunately, none of the overnight scatterometer passes
sampled the core of Blanca, although a recent ASCAT-A pass shows
several 30-32 kt wind vectors in the eastern semicircle over 60 n mi
from the center. The initial intensity is decreased to 40 kt with
this advisory, which falls between the subjective Dvorak estimates
from SAB (35 kt) and TAFB (45 kt) and is consistent with the latest
UW-CIMSS ADT current intensity estimate.

Environmental conditions along Blanca's forecast track should
maintain the current weakening trend through the forecast period.
This includes stronger vertical wind shear over the next few days
associated with a mid- to upper-level low near Baja California, in
addition to decreased oceanic heat content and a drier, more stable
environment aloft. The official NHC intensity forecast closely
follows the intensity consensus aid (IVCN), and Blanca is expected
to become a tropical depression by Thursday and a remnant low this
weekend.

The cyclone continues to turn more westward and slow down under
weakening steering currents, and its estimated motion is now an
uncertain 285/5 kt. A general westward motion is expected during the
next several days as the weakening cyclone is largely steered by the
low-level easterly trades. Based on a noticeable southward shift in
much of the guidance including the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA),
the latest NHC track forecast is adjusted left of track from the
previous one and lies closer to the TVCE consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 15.0N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 15.1N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 15.3N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 15.3N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 15.3N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 15.2N 116.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 15.1N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 15.5N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0600Z 16.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven

>

2021-06-02 08:38


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 020837
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Blanca Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
300 AM MDT Wed Jun 02 2021

...BLANCA WEAKENS AND SLOWS DOWN SLIGHTLY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 112.0W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blanca was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 112.0 West. Blanca is
moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slower
west-northwestward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a
slow westward motion through late this week and into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next
couple of days, and Blanca is forecast to become a tropical
depression by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven


>

2021-06-02 08:37


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 020835
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022021
0900 UTC WED JUN 02 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 112.0W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 112.0W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 111.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N 112.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.3N 113.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.3N 114.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.3N 115.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.2N 116.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.1N 117.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 15.5N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 112.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN



>

2021-06-02 02:47


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 020400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 14.8N 111.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 111.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 15.1N 112.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.3N 112.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.5N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.6N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.6N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 15.6N 116.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.7N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.0N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
020400Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 111.7W.
02JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1118
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 020000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021000Z, 021600Z, 022200Z
AND 030400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-06-02 02:35


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 020233
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blanca Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
900 PM MDT Tue Jun 01 2021

A cirrus canopy associated with a resurgence of deep convection
is obscuring Blanca's center. However, the cirrus has a
sharp western edge in infrared satellite imagery, indicative of
continued southwesterly shear. Because Blanca's satellite
appearance is a little better than it was earlier today, the
initial intensity is being held at 45 kt, in best agreement with
a Dvorak classification of T3.0 from TAFB.

A 2030 UTC AMSR microwave pass and recent visible images suggest
that Blanca has turned slightly to the left and slowed down, with
the initial motion now estimated to be 295/6 kt. This slower
motion is the result of a mid- to upper-level low which has
developed near the northern Baja California peninsula and has
dissolved the subtropical ridge. With the steering flow
essentially collapsing, Blanca is forecast to drift westward in the
coming days, with its slowest forward speeds occurring from 24-48
hours. After 48 hours, there should be enough of a low-level ridge
to help a weakening Blanca move a little faster toward the west
within the trade wind flow. Overall, the NHC track forecast favors
a solution on the southern side of the guidance envelope, close to
the previous forecast and the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA).

Several environmental factors are likely to contribute to Blanca's
weakening over the next few days. (1) Moderate southwesterly
vertical shear, caused by the aforementioned mid-/upper-level
trough, is expected to gradually increase over the next 2 to 3
days, (2) the upper-level environment is forecast to become more
subsident after 24 hours, and (3) Blanca will be heading toward
marginally warm waters of around 26 degrees Celsius. Gradual
weakening is therefore expected, and Blanca could become a tropical
depression within 48 hours and a remnant low by day 4. The
intensity models are in good agreement on a gradual weakening
trend, and the NHC official forecast closely follows the IVCN
intensity consensus and the HCCA model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 14.9N 111.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 15.1N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 15.3N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 15.5N 113.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 15.6N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 15.6N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 15.6N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 15.7N 118.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0000Z 16.0N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2021-06-02 02:34


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 020232
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Blanca Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
900 PM MDT Tue Jun 01 2021

...BLANCA FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 111.6W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM S OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blanca was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 111.6 West. Blanca is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower
motion toward the west-northwest is expected through Thursday,
followed by a slow motion toward the west into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Blanca
could become a tropical depression by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

2021-06-02 02:33


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 020232
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022021
0300 UTC WED JUN 02 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 111.6W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 111.6W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 111.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.1N 112.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.3N 112.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.5N 113.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.6N 114.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.6N 115.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.6N 116.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 15.7N 118.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 16.0N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 111.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

2021-06-01 20:58


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 012200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 14.7N 110.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 110.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 15.0N 111.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 15.4N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.6N 112.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.7N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.7N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.8N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 15.9N 117.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.9N 119.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
012200Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 111.0W.
01JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1135
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 011800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020400Z, 021000Z, 021600Z
AND 022200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-06-01 20:41


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 012039
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blanca Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
300 PM MDT Tue Jun 01 2021

Over the last 12 h, Blanca's convective structure has continued to
degrade. The low-level circulation center is now fully exposed to
the west of a small region of deep convection, though
disorganized convective towers are currently trying to redevelop
closer to the center. Even though deep-layer southwesterly
200-850-mb vertical wind shear diagnosed by GFS-SHIPS is still only
15-20 kt, stronger 25-30 kt mid-level shear appears to be
undercutting Blanca's outflow layer. This shear may have resulted in
Blanca ingesting dry, stable mid-level air from the west that has
significantly disrupted the cyclone's convective structure today.
Unfortunately all three scatterometer passes missed Blanca's center
and maximum winds this afternoon. However, given the marked decrease
in organization of Blanca's structure, plus recent subjective
satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB at T3.0/45 kt, the initial
intensity has been lowered to 45 kt for this advisory.

Blanca's exposed center has made it easier to determine its current
position and motion, which over the past 12 h is estimated at 300/8
kt, though the shorter-term motion has been more westward. As
previously discussed, the mid-level ridge that had been steering
Blanca to the west-northwest has been gradually weakening as a
pronounced mid- to upper-level trough centered over the Baja
California peninsula digs in. The end result is Blanca's forward
motion toward the west-northwest is likely to slow further.
Additional asymmetric convective bursts primarily occuring east of
the low-level center may also act to slow down Blanca's forward
motion. As the storm becomes more vertically shallow, it will
increasingly be influenced by the low-level steering flow resulting
in a gradual westward bend in the forecast track until Blanca
dissipates. The latest NHC forecast track has shifted a bit more
south and west this cycle, owing to the possibility that Blanca may
become a shallow vortex sooner than expected, but still agrees
closely with the HCCA corrected consensus with a little more weight
placed on the leftward bending guidance.

The same mid- to upper-level trough slowing the steering currents
have also resulted in a significant increase in mid-level shear over
Blanca, halting any further intensification. Over the next 12-24 h,
intermittent diurnal convective bursts as the cyclone remains over
28-29 C sea surface temperatures should lead to only gradual
weakening. However, even drier mid-level air and lower sea-surface
temperatures exist along Blanca's forecast track and the cyclone is
forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by 60 h and degenerate
to a remnant low by 96 h, though this could occur sooner if
organized convection dissipates faster than forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 14.7N 110.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 15.0N 111.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 15.4N 112.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 15.6N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 15.7N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 15.7N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 15.8N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 15.9N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1800Z 15.9N 119.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart

>

2021-06-01 20:38


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 012037
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Blanca Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
300 PM MDT Tue Jun 01 2021

...BLANCA WEAKENING AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 110.9W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM S OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blanca was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 110.9 West. Blanca is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown and turn
towards the west over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several
days, and Blanca is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

2021-06-01 20:38


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 012036
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022021
2100 UTC TUE JUN 01 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 110.9W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 110.9W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 110.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.0N 111.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.4N 112.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.6N 112.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.7N 113.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.7N 114.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.8N 115.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 15.9N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 15.9N 119.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 110.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART



>

2021-06-01 15:59


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 011558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 01.06.2021

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 110.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.06.2021 0 14.5N 110.0W 1001 34
0000UTC 02.06.2021 12 15.1N 111.0W 999 38
1200UTC 02.06.2021 24 15.6N 111.6W 999 36
0000UTC 03.06.2021 36 15.9N 112.5W 999 33
1200UTC 03.06.2021 48 15.9N 113.0W 1001 31
0000UTC 04.06.2021 60 15.8N 113.9W 1002 26
1200UTC 04.06.2021 72 16.0N 114.8W 1004 24
0000UTC 05.06.2021 84 16.0N 116.0W 1005 23
1200UTC 05.06.2021 96 16.3N 117.5W 1006 22
0000UTC 06.06.2021 108 16.3N 118.8W 1006 22
1200UTC 06.06.2021 120 16.7N 119.9W 1007 23
0000UTC 07.06.2021 132 16.9N 120.8W 1008 22
1200UTC 07.06.2021 144 17.0N 121.2W 1009 19


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011558

>

2021-06-01 15:58


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 011558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.06.2021

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 110.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.06.2021 14.5N 110.0W WEAK
00UTC 02.06.2021 15.1N 111.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.06.2021 15.6N 111.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.06.2021 15.9N 112.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.06.2021 15.9N 113.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.06.2021 15.8N 113.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.06.2021 16.0N 114.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.06.2021 16.0N 116.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.06.2021 16.3N 117.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.06.2021 16.3N 118.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.06.2021 16.7N 119.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.06.2021 16.9N 120.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.06.2021 17.0N 121.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011558

>

2021-06-01 15:43


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 011600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 14.2N 110.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 110.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 14.8N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 15.2N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.5N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.6N 112.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.7N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.8N 114.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.1N 116.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.5N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
011600Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 110.3W.
01JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1176
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012200Z, 020400Z, 021000Z AND 021600Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-06-01 15:02


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 011458
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blanca Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
900 AM MDT Tue Jun 01 2021

Blanca's satellite appearance has degraded some this morning, with
the convective structure evolving more into a shear pattern. Recent
SSMIS microwave passes and first-light visible imagery suggest the
center is now located on the southwest edge of a recent convective
burst. The latest subjective Dvorak classifications are lower than
last night with T2.5/35 kt from SAB and T3.0/45 kt from TAFB. The
initial intensity was kept at 50 kt for this advisory, but that
could be generous.

The cyclone's estimated motion is 300/6 kt, a bit more westward than
before. The track philosophy has not changed much this advisory, as
a mid- to upper-level trough near the Baja California peninsula is
beginning to weaken the steering ridge. Thus, Blanca is expected to
move generally west-northwestward with a continued decrease in
forward speed over the next couple of days. Afterwards, the system
should turn more westward within the low-level trade winds as it
becomes vertically shallow. The latest NHC forecast track is a bit
further southward than the previous advisory, but remains close to
the HCCA corrected consensus aid.

First-light visible imagery suggests that the low-level center of
Blanca may be in the process of becoming exposed. Owing to the
degradation in the current satellite structure, Blanca is no longer
expected to intensify, and in fact may already be weaker than
currently estimated. Increasing vertical wind shear appears to be
disrupting the current structure of the cyclone. A gradual weakening
trend is now forecast to begin by this evening through the end of
the forecast period as Blanca moves into an environment of drier
mid-level air and cooler sea surface temperatures. The NHC intensity
forecast remains close to the HCCA and ICON consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 14.3N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 14.8N 110.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 15.2N 111.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 15.5N 112.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 15.6N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 15.7N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 15.8N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 16.1N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 16.5N 118.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart

>

2021-06-01 14:59


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 011448
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Blanca Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
900 AM MDT Tue Jun 01 2021

...BLANCA NO LONGER EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 110.2W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM S OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blanca was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 110.2 West. Blanca is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue for the next several days with a
gradual slowdown and turn toward the west.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast over the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

2021-06-01 14:58


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 011448
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022021
1500 UTC TUE JUN 01 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 110.2W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 110.2W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 110.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.8N 110.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.2N 111.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.6N 112.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.7N 113.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.8N 114.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 16.1N 116.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 16.5N 118.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 110.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART



>

2021-06-01 09:45


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 011000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 14.0N 109.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 109.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 14.6N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 15.1N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 15.5N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.7N 112.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.9N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.0N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.0N 116.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.1N 118.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
011000Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 109.8W.
01JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1198
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011600Z, 012200Z, 020400Z AND 021000Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-06-01 08:41


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 010839
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blanca Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
300 AM MDT Tue Jun 01 2021

Blanca's satellite appearance has changed little tonight, as the
cyclone has maintained deep convection near its center with a couple
of banding elements observed in recent imagery. Overnight ASCAT data
indicate Blanca remains a compact tropical cyclone with a small
radius of tropical-storm-force winds. The 35-40 kt winds shown by
the scatterometer are likely not representative of the cyclone's
peak intensity given the small size of the wind field. The initial
advisory intensity of 50 kt is supported by a blend of the objective
UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON intensity estimates and subjective Dvorak
classifications of T3.5/55 kt from SAB and T3.0/45 kt from TAFB.

The cyclone's estimated motion is 305/6 kt, as it continues to move
around the southwestern extent of a mid-level ridge that extends
across central Mexico. A mid- to upper-level trough near the Baja
California peninsula is beginning to weaken the steering ridge, and
so Blanca is expected to move generally west-northwestward with a
continued decrease in forward speed over the next couple of days.
Afterwards, the system is forecast to slowly turn westward within
the low-level trade winds as it weakens and becomes vertically
shallow. The latest NHC forecast track is largely an update of the
previous one and remains close to the HCCA corrected consensus aid.

Blanca has a brief window today for some additional strengthening,
although the vertical wind shear may already be increasing over the
system. By tonight, increasing southwesterly or west-southwesterly
shear should induce a weakening trend that will likely continue
through late this week. As Blanca moves into an environment with
cooler sea surface temperatures and drier mid-level air in 2-3 days,
the cyclone is forecast to weaken to a depression by 72 hours and a
remnant low by the end of the forecast period, if not sooner. Once
again, the NHC intensity forecast captures the overall trend
reflected by the HCCA and ICON consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 14.2N 109.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 14.6N 110.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 15.1N 111.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 15.5N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 15.7N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 15.9N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 16.0N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 16.0N 116.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 16.1N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven

>

2021-06-01 08:38


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 010837
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Blanca Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
300 AM MDT Tue Jun 01 2021

...BLANCA COULD STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 109.6W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blanca was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 109.6 West. Blanca is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of
days, followed by a slow westward motion.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is possible today, followed by gradual
weakening beginning tonight and continuing through late this
week.

Blanca is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven


>

2021-06-01 08:37


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 010836
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022021
0900 UTC TUE JUN 01 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 109.6W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 109.6W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 109.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.6N 110.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.1N 111.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.7N 112.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.9N 113.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.0N 114.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 16.0N 116.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 16.1N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 109.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN



>

2021-06-01 03:59


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 010358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 01.06.2021

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 109.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.06.2021 0 13.6N 109.0W 1005 24
1200UTC 01.06.2021 12 14.4N 110.2W 1004 27
0000UTC 02.06.2021 24 15.0N 111.1W 1001 33
1200UTC 02.06.2021 36 15.7N 111.8W 1000 33
0000UTC 03.06.2021 48 16.1N 112.5W 1000 32
1200UTC 03.06.2021 60 16.1N 113.2W 1001 29
0000UTC 04.06.2021 72 15.9N 114.3W 1002 27
1200UTC 04.06.2021 84 16.1N 115.3W 1004 23
0000UTC 05.06.2021 96 15.9N 116.7W 1005 26
1200UTC 05.06.2021 108 16.2N 118.1W 1007 22
0000UTC 06.06.2021 120 16.5N 119.3W 1007 22
1200UTC 06.06.2021 132 16.9N 120.7W 1008 21
0000UTC 07.06.2021 144 17.3N 121.6W 1009 20

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 10.8N 127.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.06.2021 132 11.1N 128.0W 1007 22
0000UTC 07.06.2021 144 12.0N 128.2W 1007 21


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010358

>

2021-06-01 03:59


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 010358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.06.2021

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 109.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.06.2021 13.6N 109.0W WEAK
12UTC 01.06.2021 14.4N 110.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.06.2021 15.0N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.06.2021 15.7N 111.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.06.2021 16.1N 112.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.06.2021 16.1N 113.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.06.2021 15.9N 114.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.06.2021 16.1N 115.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.06.2021 15.9N 116.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.06.2021 16.2N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.06.2021 16.5N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.06.2021 16.9N 120.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.06.2021 17.3N 121.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 10.8N 127.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.06.2021 11.1N 128.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.06.2021 12.0N 128.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010358

>

2021-06-01 03:00


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 010400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 13.7N 109.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 109.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.4N 110.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.1N 111.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 15.6N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.9N 113.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 16.0N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.1N 114.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.1N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.2N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
010400Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 109.5W.
01JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1221
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 010000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011000Z, 011600Z, 012200Z
AND 020400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-06-01 02:43


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 010240
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blanca Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
900 PM MDT Mon May 31 2021

The satellite presentation of Blanca has continued to improve this
evening. Bursts of deep convection have recently developed near the
estimated center, which has led to an increase in banding that can
be seen in the latest microwave imagery. Subjective Dvorak
classifications are T3.0 (45 kt) and T3.5 (55 kt) from TAFB and
SAB, respectively. Based on these data and the continued
organization seen in recent satellite imagery, the initial
intensity has been set at 50 kt for this advisory.

Blanca is currently located within a favorable environment for
strengthening that consists of low vertical wind shear, warm sea
surface temperatures, and a moist atmosphere. These conditions
favor additional strengthening during the next 12 hours or so, but
by Tuesday afternoon increasing southwesterly shear is likely to
put an end to Blanca's intensification phase. After that time, an
additional increase in shear and gradually decreasing sea surface
temperatures are expected to cause slow weakening throughout the
remainder of the forecast period. Blanca is now forecast to become
a remnant low by day 5, but it could occur a little sooner than
that. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the
HCCA and ICON consensus aids.

The initial motion estimate is 300/8 kt, a little slower toward the
west-northwest than before. A deepening mid- to upper-level trough
near the central portion of the Baja peninsula is forecast to
weaken the western extent of the ridge, which is expected to cause
Blanca to slow its forward speed over the next couple of days. As
the tropical storm weakens in 2-3 days, it should turn more westward
when it becomes a vertically shallow system and is steered by the
low-level easterly trade wind flow. Although there is an increase
in the spread of the guidance after 72 hours, the latest NHC track
forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, and it
is very similar to the previous official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 13.9N 109.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 14.4N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 15.1N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 15.6N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 15.9N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 16.0N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 16.1N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 16.1N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 16.2N 118.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2021-06-01 02:41


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 010240
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Blanca Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
900 PM MDT Mon May 31 2021

...BLANCA STRENGTHENING AND LIKELY TO REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY
LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 109.4W
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blanca was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 109.4 West. Blanca is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the
next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected tonight and
Tuesday morning. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Tuesday
night and then continue through Thursday.

Blanca is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
only extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

2021-06-01 02:41


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 010239
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022021
0300 UTC TUE JUN 01 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 109.4W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 109.4W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 109.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.4N 110.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.1N 111.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.6N 112.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.9N 113.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.0N 113.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.1N 114.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 16.1N 116.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 16.2N 118.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 109.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2021-05-31 21:24


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 312200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLANCA) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 13.2N 108.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 108.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.0N 109.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 14.6N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 15.2N 112.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 15.6N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.9N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.0N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.2N 116.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.2N 118.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
312200Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 108.9W.
31MAY21. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BLANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1264
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 311800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010400Z, 011000Z, 011600Z
AND 012200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-05-31 20:44


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 312042
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blanca Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
300 PM MDT Mon May 31 2021

Thunderstorms activity has increased markedly since the previous
advisory and convection now wraps almost 75 percent around the
well-defined low-level center. A bullseye ASCAT-B and a partial
ASCAT-A pass at 1717Z and 1602Z, respectively, depicted a few
35-kt surface vectors just northwest of the tight low-level center
along with a small radius of maximum winds (RMW) of about 15 nmi.
Based on the continued increase in the convective organization since
the ASCAT passes, the advisory intensity has been raised to 40 kt,
which is a little below the consensus T3.0/45 kt satellite
intensity classifications from TAFB and SAB, and objective intensity
estimates of 46 kt and 47 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON,
respectively.

Blanca is forecast to maintain a general west-northwestward to
northwestward motion along the south side of a deep-layer
subtropical ridge for the next 3 days or so. Thereafter, a gradual
turn to the west-northwest is expected on day 4, followed by a
westward motion on day 5 as the cyclone moves over cooler water and
weakens, thus becoming more vertically shallow and steered by the
low-level easterly trade wind flow. The new official NHC forecast
track is similar to the previous advisory track and lies near the
center of the tightly packed guidance envelope, which is close to
an average of the consensus track models TVCE and HCCA.

Blanca is expected to remain in favorable environmental conditions
of low vertical wind shear less than 10 kt, high oceanic heat
content, and moist low- to mid-level air for the next 24 hours or
so. As a result, steady strengthening is forecast during that
time, with a brief period of rapid intensification a distinct
possibility owing to the cyclone's small RMW. Thereafter, the
combination of increasing westerly wind shear, along with
decreasing SSTs and mid-level humidity, should cause gradual
weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the HWRF,
HCCA, and Decay-SHIPS (DSHP) models, which is slightly above the
previous intensity forecast for the first 24 hours, and then is
very similar to the previous advisory thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 13.5N 108.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 14.0N 109.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 14.6N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 15.2N 112.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 15.6N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 15.9N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 16.0N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 16.2N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 16.2N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2021-05-31 20:42


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 312041
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Blanca Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
300 PM MDT Mon May 31 2021

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM BLANCA WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 108.9W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blanca was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 108.9 West. Blanca is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A slower
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the
next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected tonight and
Tuesday, followed by slow weakening on Wednesday and Thursday.

Blanca is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds only
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

2021-05-31 20:41


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 312040
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022021
2100 UTC MON MAY 31 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 108.9W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 108.9W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 108.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.0N 109.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.6N 111.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.2N 112.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.6N 113.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.9N 113.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.0N 114.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.2N 116.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 16.2N 118.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 108.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

2021-05-31 15:59


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 311558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 31.05.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 106.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.05.2021 0 13.3N 106.6W 1008 20
0000UTC 01.06.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 14.4N 110.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.06.2021 24 14.4N 110.2W 1007 23
0000UTC 02.06.2021 36 15.0N 111.1W 1005 26
1200UTC 02.06.2021 48 15.8N 111.9W 1004 26
0000UTC 03.06.2021 60 16.1N 112.7W 1003 27
1200UTC 03.06.2021 72 16.1N 113.4W 1004 26
0000UTC 04.06.2021 84 16.1N 114.6W 1004 24
1200UTC 04.06.2021 96 16.1N 116.0W 1006 23
0000UTC 05.06.2021 108 15.7N 117.6W 1006 24
1200UTC 05.06.2021 120 15.5N 119.1W 1008 23
0000UTC 06.06.2021 132 15.6N 119.8W 1008 22
1200UTC 06.06.2021 144 16.0N 120.8W 1009 19


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 311558

>

2021-05-31 15:59


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 311558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 31.05.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 106.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.05.2021 13.3N 106.6W WEAK
00UTC 01.06.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 14.4N 110.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.06.2021 14.4N 110.2W WEAK
00UTC 02.06.2021 15.0N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.06.2021 15.8N 111.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.06.2021 16.1N 112.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.06.2021 16.1N 113.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.06.2021 16.1N 114.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.06.2021 16.1N 116.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.06.2021 15.7N 117.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.06.2021 15.5N 119.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.06.2021 15.6N 119.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.06.2021 16.0N 120.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 311558

>

2021-05-31 14:36


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 311434
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
900 AM MDT Mon May 31 2021

Satellite images indicate that the depression is getting better
organized with deep convection increasing in intensity and coverage
during the past several hours. The structure of the system also
appears to be improving with some evidence of a central dense
overcast trying to form. Although the latest Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB support raising the intensity of the system to a 35-kt
tropical storm, the ASCAT passes from last night showed that the
winds were notably lower than expected and the circulation was broad
and lacking a tight wind field. Therefore, the initial intensity
is held at 30 kt for this advisory factoring in the aforementioned
ASCAT data. However, it seems very likely that the depression will
become a tropical storm later today.

The depression is currently in favorable conditions of low vertical
wind shear, high oceanic content and a moist low- to mid-level
environment. These conditions should persist for another day, so
short term strengthening is expected. In about 24 hours, however,
increasing westerly shear, decreasing moisture, and declining SSTs
should induce a gradual weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one and in best agreement with the HCCA
guidance, except a little above that model at the longer lead times.

The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt on the south side
of a mid-level ridge. A general west-northwest to northwest motion
is expected during the next 2 or 3 days while the system moves on
the southwest side of the ridge and toward a weakness caused by a
mid- to upper-level trough extending southwestward from the Baja
California peninsula. After that time, the weakening and likely
decoupled system should turn westward in the low-level flow. The
NHC track forecast is a little to the south of the previous one and
near the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 12.4N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 12.9N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 13.5N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 14.2N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 14.7N 112.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 15.1N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 15.3N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 15.6N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 15.8N 117.4W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2021-05-31 14:35


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 311433
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two-E Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
900 AM MDT Mon May 31 2021

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 107.7W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two-E
was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 107.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22
km/h). A slower west-northwest to northwest motion is expected
during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the system
is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

2021-05-31 14:34


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 311432
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022021
1500 UTC MON MAY 31 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 107.7W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 107.7W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 107.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.9N 109.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.5N 110.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.2N 111.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.7N 112.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.1N 113.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.3N 113.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 15.6N 115.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 15.8N 117.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 107.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

2021-05-31 08:39


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 310837
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
300 AM MDT Mon May 31 2021

Despite its reasonably good satellite presentation, overnight
satellite-derived wind data indicate that Two-E remains a tropical
depression. Multiple ASCAT passes show Ten-E has a broad circulation
with a low-level center that remains displaced southeast of the main
region of deep convection. Although recent satellite imagery does
show a new convective burst occurring near the estimated center
position, the cyclone's lack of improved vertical structure combined
with scatterometer winds near 25 kt suggest it has yet to
strengthen. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at a possibly
generous 30 kt, which is consistent with the T2.0/30 kt subjective
Dvorak classification received from TAFB.

The estimated motion, 290/12 kt, is again slightly faster than the
previous advisory. The guidance indicates the depression should
maintain a west-northwestward heading during the next couple of days
as it moves around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge.
The system is expected to gradually slow down as a weakness develops
in the ridge, and this is when increased spread is noted in the
global models. The GFS and ECMWF lie on opposite extremes of the
guidance envelope beyond 72 hours, with the ECWMF showing a faster
westward motion while the GFS takes the system slowly poleward. The
latest NHC forecast track remains close to the corrected-consensus
aid HCCA through this period of increased uncertainty.

High oceanic heat content, very low vertical wind shear, and a moist
mid-level environment should support strengthening during the next
24 hours or so, before increasing vertical wind shear becomes a
limiting factor. The ECMWF suggests this could occur earlier than
previously forecast, which is reflected in the latest intensity
guidance that trends weaker. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast
is adjusted downward from the previous advisory beyond 24 hours, but
still lies on the high end of the guidance envelope and above the
HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. It is noted that the HWRF and HMON
depict more significant strengthening during the next 24 hours,
which cannot be completely ruled out given the very favorable
near-term conditions. Beyond day 3, cooler sea-surface temperatures
and a drier mid-level environment should induce a steady weakening
trend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 12.2N 106.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 12.9N 108.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 13.6N 109.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 14.2N 110.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 14.7N 111.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 15.1N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 15.3N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 15.4N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 15.8N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake

>

2021-05-31 08:36


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 310835
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
300 AM MDT Mon May 31 2021

...DEPRESSION STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 106.6W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two-E
was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 106.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22
km/h). A continued west-northwestward motion with a gradual
reduction in forward speed is expected through midweek. On the
forecast track, the tropical cyclone should remain well offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is
forecast during the next day or so, and the system is expected to
become a tropical storm this morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake


>

2021-05-31 08:36


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 310834
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022021
0900 UTC MON MAY 31 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 106.6W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 106.6W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 106.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 12.9N 108.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.6N 109.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.2N 110.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.7N 111.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N 112.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.3N 113.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 15.4N 114.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 15.8N 116.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 106.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE

>

2021-05-31 03:59


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 310358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 31.05.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 104.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.05.2021 0 11.7N 104.4W 1007 20
1200UTC 31.05.2021 12 13.0N 106.2W 1008 20
0000UTC 01.06.2021 24 14.3N 108.6W 1007 23
1200UTC 01.06.2021 36 14.5N 110.1W 1006 24
0000UTC 02.06.2021 48 15.5N 110.9W 1004 27
1200UTC 02.06.2021 60 16.4N 111.8W 1004 27
0000UTC 03.06.2021 72 16.6N 112.7W 1003 28
1200UTC 03.06.2021 84 16.7N 113.2W 1004 25
0000UTC 04.06.2021 96 16.7N 114.2W 1004 24
1200UTC 04.06.2021 108 17.2N 115.4W 1006 23
0000UTC 05.06.2021 120 17.2N 116.7W 1007 23
1200UTC 05.06.2021 132 17.6N 118.1W 1009 20
0000UTC 06.06.2021 144 18.0N 119.3W 1009 20

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 10.2N 125.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.06.2021 132 10.2N 125.7W 1007 21
0000UTC 06.06.2021 144 10.8N 126.3W 1006 23


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 310358

>

2021-05-31 03:59


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 310358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 31.05.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 104.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.05.2021 11.7N 104.4W WEAK
12UTC 31.05.2021 13.0N 106.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.06.2021 14.3N 108.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.06.2021 14.5N 110.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.06.2021 15.5N 110.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.06.2021 16.4N 111.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.06.2021 16.6N 112.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.06.2021 16.7N 113.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.06.2021 16.7N 114.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.06.2021 17.2N 115.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.06.2021 17.2N 116.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.06.2021 17.6N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.06.2021 18.0N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 10.2N 125.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.06.2021 10.2N 125.7W WEAK
00UTC 06.06.2021 10.8N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 310358

>

2021-05-31 02:36


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 310234
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
1000 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

The satellite presentation of the depression is gradually improving
as there has been an increase in convective banding over the
northwestern portion of the circulation. Recent microwave data
and late afternoon visible satellite imagery suggest that there is
still some displacement of the low- mid-level centers, with the
low-level center located just southeast of the main convective
mass. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB remained 2.0
and 2.5, respectively at 00Z, and the initial intensity is held
at 30 kt for this advisory. Overnight ASCAT data should be helpful
in determining the intensity and size of the cyclone's wind field.

The initial motion is still somewhat uncertain, but appears to be a
little faster than before or 295/10 kt. The global models show a
general west-northwestward motion during the next couple of days to
the south of a mid-level ridge. After that time, a cut-off low
that develops near the central portion of the Baja peninsula is
forecast to weaken the ridge causing the tropical cyclone to slow
down. The updated NHC forecast is similar to the previous
advisory, except it indicates a slower forward motion during the
latter portion of the period. It should be noted that the GFS
takes a stronger cyclone more poleward into the weakness in the
ridge, but the NHC forecast remains close to the TVCE, GFEX, and
HCCA model consensus aids. Given the more than 250 n mi spread
between the ECMWF and GFS models by day 5, the latter portion
of the track forecast is of lower confidence than normal.

The depression is located over warm waters and in a very low shear
environment. These conditions, along with a moist atmosphere,
favor strengthening during the next couple of days. If the
low- and mid-level centers become co-located, a faster rate of
strengthening could occur in the short term, and the NHC intensity
forecast is slightly higher at 24 and 36 hours than before. Given
the very low shear conditions expected, it would not be too
surprising to see the cyclone intensify a little more than forecast
if the inner-core structure improves overnight. After 48 hours,
moderate southwesterly shear and gradually decreasing SSTs
should result in gradual weakening later in the period. The
updated NHC intensity forecast is best agreement with the higher
GFS-based SHIPS guidance and not far from the various consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 11.8N 105.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 12.3N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 13.1N 108.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 13.8N 109.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 14.3N 110.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 14.6N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 14.8N 112.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 15.2N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 15.7N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2021-05-31 02:34


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 310233
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
1000 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 105.2W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two-E
was located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 105.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of
days. A gradual reduction in forward speed is forecast by
mid-week. On the forecast track, the tropical cyclone should
remain well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system
is expected to become a tropical storm overnight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

2021-05-31 02:34


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 310233
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022021
0300 UTC MON MAY 31 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 105.2W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 105.2W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 104.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 12.3N 106.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.1N 108.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.8N 109.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.3N 110.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.6N 111.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.8N 112.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 15.2N 113.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 15.7N 115.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 105.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

2021-05-30 20:42


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 302040
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
400 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

The area of low pressure that the National Hurricane Center has been
monitoring the past few days well offshore the southwestern coast of
Mexico has continued to become better organized today and, thus, has
now been upgraded to tropical depression status -- the second
depression of the 2021 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. The
initial intensity of 30 kt is based on an ASCAT-A scatterometer pass
at 1442Z that showed several 30-32 kt surface wind vectors located
northwest through north-northeast of the center. Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates at 1800Z were 30 kt from TAFB and 35 kt from
SAB, respectively, a further indication that the cyclone is just
below tropical storm strength.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 300/08 kt. Although
recent hi-resolution visible satellite imagery indicates that the
depression has developed a tight, inner-core low-level vortex during
the past few hours, this feature has no continuity. Thus, there is
uncertainty in both the direction and speed of the cyclone at this
time. However, the global and regional models show a general
west-northwestward motion between 8-12 kt around the western
periphery of a deep-layer ridge continuing for the next 3-5 days.
The NHC official track forecast follows that scenario, and lies
between the HCCA corrected consensus model to the left of the
forecast track and the TVCE simple consensus model on the right.

The overall environment appears to be conducive for strengthening
during the next 72 h or so based on SSTs of 29.0-29.5 deg C,
mid-level humidity values of 70-75 percent, and low deep-layer
vertical wind shear of 5-10 kt. The only fly-in-the- ointment is
that both the GFS and ECMWF models show the instability decreasing
to about half its current value by 48 hours. As a result, the
global and regional models, and the SHIPS-LGEM model show the
cyclone peaking at about 45 kt in 36-48 h, followed by gradual
weakening thereafter. In contrast, the SHIPS dynamical-statistical
model intensifies the cyclone to about 55 kt in 48-72 h, then
followed by gradual weakening; the HCCA consensus model is similar
to the SHIPS (DSHP) forecast. Given the aforementioned favorable
environmental parameters, the official intensity forecast is a based
on a blend of the HCCA and Decay-SHIPS intensity models, and lies a
little above the IVCN intensity consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 11.3N 103.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 11.9N 105.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 12.8N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 13.5N 109.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 14.2N 110.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 14.6N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 15.0N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 15.4N 113.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 16.0N 114.7W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2021-05-30 20:40


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 302039
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
400 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

...SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2021 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 103.8W
ABOUT 535 MI...855 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical
Depression Two-E was located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude
103.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near
9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
for the next few days. On the forecast track, the tropical cyclone
should remain well offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system
is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

2021-05-30 20:39


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 302038
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022021
2100 UTC SUN MAY 30 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 103.8W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 103.8W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 103.4W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 11.9N 105.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 12.8N 107.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.5N 109.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.2N 110.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.6N 111.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 15.4N 113.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 114.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 103.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>