Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for YAAS-21
in India

Global Telecommunication Service

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2021-05-26 11:48


Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 261145
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1100 UTC 26 MAY 2021.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM YAAS (PRONOUNCED AS YASS) OVER
NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF
ABOUT 24 KMPH DURING PAST 6 HOURS, CROSSED NORTH ODISHA COAST AROUND
LATITUDE 21.35 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 86.95 DEG E, ABOUT 20 KM TO THE
SOUTH OF BALASORE AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH A MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 130 -140 KMPH GUSTING TO 155 KMPH BETWEEN
0500 AND 0600 HRS UTC OF TODAY, THE 26TH MAY 2021. IT LAY CENTRED AT
0600 HRS IST OF TODAY, THE 26 TH MAY, 2021 OVER NORTH COASTAL ODISHA,
NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 86.9 DEG E, ABOUT 15 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BALASORE (ODISHA). THE SYSTEM IS VERY LIKELY TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS INTERIOR DISTRICTS OF ODISHA AND WEAKEN
GRADUALLY INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 3 HOURS AND INTO A
CYCLONIC STORM DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 6 HOURS (.)

PART-II (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1) E OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 55 DEG E: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 62 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 62 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 55 DEG E: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 10/20 KTS TO
THE E OF 65 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO THE E OF 65 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO THE E OF 65 DEG E : 4-3 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR(.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 10/20 KTS TO
THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO THE E OF 65 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDEPSREAD
RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO THE E OF 65 DEG E : 4-3 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E ANDTHENCE
S-WARDS
TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 93
DEG(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 4 DEG N TO THE W OF 86 DEG E: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 4 DEG N TO THE W OF 86 DEG E: 8-6 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 4 DEG N: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 91
DEG(.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1) N OF 20 DEG N TO THE W OF 90 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 65/70 KTS(.)
2)S OF 18 DEG N: SW/W-LY 20/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 20 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)S OF 15 DEG N TO THE E OF 86 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 20 DEG N : 3-2 NM(.)
2)S OF 15 DEG N TO THE E OF 86 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 18 DEG N: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1) N OF 22 DEG N TO W OF 87 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 30/40 KTS (.)
2)S OF 16 DEG N: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 20 DEG N : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)S OF 17 DEG N TO THE E OF 87 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 20 DEG N : 4-3 NM(.)
2)S OF 17 DEG N TO THE E OF 87 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 18 DEG N: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

>

2021-05-26 09:03


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 260900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02B NIO 210526070624
2021052606 02B YAAS 010 01 325 06 SATL 040
T000 216N 0870E 055 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 145 SE QD 125 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 225N 0862E 035
T024 236N 0853E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 21.6N 87.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 87.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 22.5N 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 23.6N 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 86.8E.
26MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 98 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOONWRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
0221052218 155N 882E 25
0221052300 155N 884E 25
0221052306 155N 886E 25
0221052312 155N 888E 30
0221052318 156N 892E 35
0221052400 162N 900E 35
0221052406 165N 897E 35
0221052412 167N 893E 40
0221052418 173N 891E 50
0221052418 173N 891E 50
0221052500 180N 886E 60
0221052500 180N 886E 60
0221052506 189N 885E 60
0221052506 189N 885E 60
0221052512 198N 883E 65
0221052512 198N 883E 65
0221052512 198N 883E 65
0221052518 203N 878E 65
0221052518 203N 878E 65
0221052518 203N 878E 65
0221052600 211N 874E 65
0221052600 211N 874E 65
0221052600 211N 874E 65
0221052606 216N 870E 55
0221052606 216N 870E 55
NNNN

>

2021-05-26 09:03


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 21.6N 87.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 87.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 22.5N 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 23.6N 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 86.8E.
26MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 98 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE NOW MOVING OVER LAND AND
BEGINNING THE DECAYING PROCESS AS IT TRANSITS OVER THE RUGGED
TERRAIN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE LLCC FEATURE IN THE COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR FROM PARADIP,
INDIA, AND ANALYSIS OF LOCAL WEATHER OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF MULTIPLE
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES BEFORE LANDFALL WITH T3.5/55KTS FROM PGTW,
4.0/65KTS FROM DEMS, T3.8/61KTS BY THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
(ADT), ALONG WITH AN OBSERVATION FROM BALASORE, INDIA OF 45KTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 02B RESIDES UNDER WEAKER
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-35KTS),
CONTRIBUTING TO THE RAPID DECAY AS THE STORM DISSIPATING BY TAU 24.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF
29NM AT TAU 12 DUE TO THE FAR SOLE RIGHT OUTLIER OF AFUM. THE MODEL
SPREAD WIDENS TO 66NM WITH AFUM BY TAU 24 OR 29NM WITHOUT, LENDING
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID JUST
TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET AFUM. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOONWRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

>

2021-05-26 06:02


Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 260600 COR
MODIFIED
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR

VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0000 UTC 26 MAY 2021.



PART-I STORM WARNING



THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM YAAS (PRONOUNCED AS YASS)

OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED

OF ABOUT 15 KMPH DURING PAST 6 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF
26

THMAY, 2021 OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE

87.3 DEG E, ABOUT 80 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP (42976), 90 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST

OF BALASORE (42895), 90 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIGHA (42901) AND 40 KM
EAST OF

DHAMRA PORT (ODISHA, INDIA).

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS

NORTH ODISHA COAST NORTH OF DHAMRA AND SOUTH OF BALASORE, DURING NOON

(0600-0800 UTC) OF WEDNESDAY, THE 26TH MAY AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM..(.)



PART-II (.)





A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)

2)E OF 60 DEG E: W/SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 55 DEG E: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)

2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 (.)



A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)

2)E OF 60 DEG E: NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS BEC W/SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE E OF
72 DEG E(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS
(.)

2)S OF 5 DEG N TO THE E OF 72 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

3)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)S OF 5 DEG N TO THE E OF 72 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)

3)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 55 DEG E: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)

2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 (.)



ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E

TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS TO

THE E OF 65 DEG E(.)

2)N OF 20 DEG N: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N TO THE E OF 55 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N TO THE E OF 55 DEG E : 4-3 NM(.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR(.)



A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS

1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS TO

THE E OF 64 DEG E(.)

2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO THE E OF 62 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDEPSREAD
RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO THE E OF 62 DEG E : 4-3 NM(.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)



BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E

AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E ANDTHENCE
S-WARDS

TO EQUATOR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)



A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)



BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1) N OF 18 DEG N: CYCLONIC 80/90 KTS(.)

2)S OF 15 DEG N: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 83 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 83 DEG E : 3-2 NM(.)

2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 16 DEG N: OVER 14.0 MTR(.)

2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)



A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1) N OF 20 DEG N: CYCLONIC 40/50 KTS (.)

2)S OF 16 DEG N: SW/W-LY 20/30 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 84 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 84 DEG E : 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 17 DEG N: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)

2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2021-05-26 02:26


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 260300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02B NIO 210526012913
2021052600 02B YAAS 009 01 335 09 SATL 010
T000 211N 0874E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 222N 0865E 045 R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 233N 0854E 035 R034 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 243N 0845E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 21.1N 87.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 87.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 22.2N 86.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 23.3N 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 24.3N 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 87.2E.
26MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 106
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.
//
0221052218 155N 882E 25
0221052300 155N 884E 25
0221052306 155N 886E 25
0221052312 155N 888E 30
0221052318 156N 892E 35
0221052400 162N 900E 35
0221052406 165N 897E 35
0221052412 167N 893E 40
0221052418 173N 891E 50
0221052418 173N 891E 50
0221052500 180N 886E 60
0221052500 180N 886E 60
0221052506 189N 885E 60
0221052506 189N 885E 60
0221052512 198N 883E 65
0221052512 198N 883E 65
0221052512 198N 883E 65
0221052518 203N 878E 65
0221052518 203N 878E 65
0221052518 203N 878E 65
0221052600 211N 874E 65
0221052600 211N 874E 65
0221052600 211N 874E 65
NNNN

>

2021-05-26 02:25


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 21.1N 87.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 87.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 22.2N 86.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 23.3N 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 24.3N 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 87.2E.
26MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 106
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WHICH HAS MAINTAINED AN OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, ALBEIT WITH
EARLY SIGNS OF DECAY DUE TO PROXIMITY TO SHORE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLCC FEATURE IN THE
COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR FROM PARADIP, INDIA, THE 252303Z GMI 91GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS, AND ANALYSIS OF COASTAL WEATHER OBSERVATIONS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65KTS BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/(55KTS (PGTW), T3.7/59KTS (ADT), AND 67KTS
FROM SATCON, AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 02B IS NOW UNDER AN AREA OF
WEAKER OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS)
WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE STORM INTERACTS
WITH THE LAND. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ESTUARY
OF BUDHABALANGA RIVER, INDIA, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 36.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF
15NM AT TAU 12, SPREADING WIDER TO 55NM BY TAU 24 MAINLY DUE TO THE
AFUM, THE SOLE OUTLIER TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE, LENDING
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID JUST
TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET AFUM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-05-25 20:22


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 252100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02B NIO 210525191928
2021052518 02B YAAS 008 01 315 07 SATL RADR SYNP 010
T000 203N 0878E 065 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 215N 0871E 060 R050 070 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 225N 0861E 035 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 236N 0850E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 20.3N 87.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 87.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.5N 87.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 22.5N 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 23.6N 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 87.6E.
25MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.
//
0221052218 155N 882E 25
0221052300 155N 884E 25
0221052306 155N 886E 25
0221052312 155N 888E 30
0221052318 156N 892E 35
0221052400 162N 900E 35
0221052406 165N 897E 35
0221052412 167N 893E 40
0221052418 173N 891E 50
0221052418 173N 891E 50
0221052500 180N 886E 60
0221052500 180N 886E 60
0221052506 189N 885E 60
0221052506 189N 885E 60
0221052512 198N 883E 65
0221052512 198N 883E 65
0221052512 198N 883E 65
0221052518 203N 878E 65
0221052518 203N 878E 65
0221052518 203N 878E 65
NNNN

>

2021-05-25 20:22


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 20.3N 87.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 87.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.5N 87.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 22.5N 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 23.6N 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 87.6E.
25MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS MAINTAINED
OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND DEGREE OF WRAP, ALBEIT WITH EARLY
SIGNS OF DECAY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON LLCC FEATURE IN THE COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR FROM PARADIP,
INDIA AND IN THE 251745Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65KTS WHICH IS SET WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE HEDGING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55KTS), THE
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF T3.7 (59KTS), THE SATELLITE
CONSENSUS (SATCON) ESTIMATE OF 61KTS, AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 02B IS
NOW UNDER AN AREA OF WEAKER OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15-20KTS) WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE
STORM INTERACTS WITH THE LAND. THESE FACTORS ARE OFFSET BY WARM (30-31
C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 02B WILL REMAIN AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY
OF 65KTS AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AT ABOUT TAU 12,
TC 02B IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ESTUARY OF
BUDHABALANGA RIVER, INDIA. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL
RAPIDLY DECAYING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU
36. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD OF 15NM AT TAU 12, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK THAT IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-05-25 18:02


Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 251800

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR

VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 25 MAY 2021.



PART-I STORM WARNING



THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM YAAS (PRONOUNCED AS YASS) OVER NORTHWEST
AND BAY OF BENGAL INTENSIFIED INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM,
MOVED NORTHNORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 08 KNOTS DURING PAST
6 HOURS, AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 HRS UTC OF TODAY, THE 25 TH MAY,
2021 OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE 88.0 DEG E, ABOUT 160 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP
(ODISHA), 250 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BALASORE (ODISHA), 240 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIGHA (WEST BENGAL) AND

230 KM SOUTH OF SAGAR ISLANDS (WEST BENGAL). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFY FURTHER AND REACH NEAR NORTH
ODISHA COAST CLOSE TO DHAMRA PORT BY THE EARLY MORNING OF WEDNESDAY,
THE 26TH MAY. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CROSS NORTH ODISHA-WEST BENGAL
COASTS BETWEEN PARADIP AND SAGAR ISLANDS CLOSE TO NORTH OF DHAMRA AND
SOUTH OF BALASORE, DURING NOON OF WEDNESDAY, THE 26TH MAY AS A VERY
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)



PART-II (.)



A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS
(.)

2)S OF 5 DEG N TO THE E OF 73 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)S OF 5 DEG N TO THE E OF 73 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)

3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 55 DEG E: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)

2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 (.)



A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 55 DEG E: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)

2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 (.)



ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E

TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 10/20 KTS TO

THE E OF 68 DEG E(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO THE E OF 63 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO THE E OF 63 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR(.)



A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS

1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 10/20 KTS TO

THE E OF 68 DEG E(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE E OF 65 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDEPSREAD
RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE E OF 65 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)



BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E

AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E ANDTHENCE
S-WARDS

TO EQUATOR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 90
DEG (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 86 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 86 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)



A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 4 DEG N: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 93
DEG(.)

II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)



BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1) N OF 18 DEG N: CYCLONIC 80/90 KTS(.)

2)S OF 18 DEG N: SW/W-LY 25/30 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 16 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE E OF 86 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 16 DEG N : 3-2 NM(.)

2)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE E OF 86 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)

3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 16 DEG N: OVER 14.0 MTR(.)

2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)



A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1) N OF 20 DEG N: CYCLONIC 50/60 KTS (.)

2)S OF 16 DEG N: SW/W-LY 20/30 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 20 DEG N : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE E OF 90 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 20 DEG N : 3-2 NM(.)

2)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE E OF 90 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)

3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 18 DEG N: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)

2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2021-05-25 14:45


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 251500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02B NIO 210525133257
2021052512 02B YAAS 007 01 350 09 SATL 050
T000 198N 0883E 065 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 135 SE QD 140 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 210N 0875E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 218N 0867E 045 R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 227N 0857E 035
T048 236N 0846E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 19.8N 88.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 88.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.0N 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 21.8N 86.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 22.7N 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 23.6N 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 88.1E.
25MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 168
NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z
AND 261500Z.//
0221052218 155N 882E 25
0221052300 155N 884E 25
0221052306 155N 886E 25
0221052312 155N 888E 30
0221052318 156N 892E 35
0221052400 162N 900E 35
0221052406 165N 897E 35
0221052412 167N 893E 40
0221052418 173N 891E 50
0221052418 173N 891E 50
0221052500 180N 886E 60
0221052500 180N 886E 60
0221052506 189N 885E 60
0221052506 189N 885E 60
0221052512 198N 883E 65
0221052512 198N 883E 65
0221052512 198N 883E 65
NNNN

>

2021-05-25 14:45


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 19.8N 88.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 88.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.0N 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 21.8N 86.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 22.7N 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 23.6N 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 88.1E.
25MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 168
NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
ALONG WITH ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICT THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING CONSOLIDATING AROUND A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW/DEMS AND
A 251030Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65KTS IS SET
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING MULTIPLE DVORAK AGENCY FIXES FROM
PGTW/DEMS ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65KTS), THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
(ADT) OF T3.8 (61KTS), AND THE SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) ESTIMATE
OF 67KTS. TC 02B RESIDES IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15-20KTS). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS UP TO LANDFALL JUST
BEFORE 26/12Z. TC 02B WILL REMAIN AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 65KTS AS
IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12, TC 02B IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ESTUARY OF
BUDHABALANGA RIVER, INDIA. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN DECAYING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU
48, IF NOT SHORTLY AFTER. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 45NM AT TAU 24, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 29 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-05-25 13:32


Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 251330
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1300 UTC 25 MAY 2021.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM YAAS (PRONOUNCED AS YASS) OVER NORTHWEST
AND ADJOINING WEST-CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 08 KNOTS DURING PAST 6 HOURS, AND LAY CENTRED
AT 0900 HRS UTC OF TODAY, THE 25 TH MAY, 2021 OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 88.1 DEG E, ABOUT 200
KM SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP (ODISHA), 290 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BALASORE
(ODISHA), 290 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIGHA (WEST BENGAL) AND 280 KM
SOUTH OF SAGAR ISLANDS (WEST BENGAL). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM DURING NEXT 06 HOURS. IT WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHNORTHWEST
WARDS, INTENSIFY FURTHER AND REACH NEAR NORTH ODISHA COAST CLOSE TO
DHAMRA PORT BY THE EARLY MORNING OF WEDNESDAY, THE 26TH MAY. IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO CROSS NORTH ODISHA-WEST BENGAL COASTS BETWEEN
PARADIP AND SAGAR ISLAND CLOSE TO NORTH OF DHAMRA AND SOUTH OF
BALASORE, DURING NOON OF WEDNESDAY, THE 26TH MAY AS A VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS
(.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N TO THE E OF 72 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N TO THE E OF 72 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 55 DEG E: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 55 DEG E: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 10/20 KTS TO
THE E OF 65 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE E OF 62 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE E OF 62 DEG E : 4-3 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR(.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 10/20 KTS TO
THE E OF 65 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE E OF 65 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDEPSREAD
RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE E OF 65 DEG E : 4-3 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E ANDTHENCE
S-WARDS
TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 90
DEG(.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 4 DEG N: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 94
DEG(.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1) N OF 18 DEG N: CYCLONIC 80/90 KTS(.)
2)S OF 18 DEG N: SW/W-LY 30/40 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 16 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE E OF 86 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 16 DEG N : 3-2 NM(.)
2)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE E OF 86 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 16 DEG N: OVER 14.0 MTR(.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1) N OF 20 DEG N: CYCLONIC 65/75 KTS (.)
2)S OF 16 DEG N: SW/W-LY 30/40 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 20 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE E OF 88 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 20 DEG N : 3-2 NM(.)
2)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE E OF 88 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 18 DEG N: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2021-05-25 10:07


Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 250958
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0930 UTC 25 MAY 2021.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM YAAS (PRONOUNCED AS YASS) OVER WESTCENTRAL
AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL AND NORTH BAY OF BENGAL MOVED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 16 KMPH DURING PAST 6 HOURS, AND LAY CENTRED AT
0600 HRS
UTC OF TODAY, THE 25 TH MAY, 2021 OVER NORTHWEST AND ADJOINING
WESTCENTRAL
BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 88.0 DEG E,
ABOUT
220 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP (ODISHA), 330 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
BALASORE (ODISHA), 320 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIGHA (WEST BENGAL) AND
320 KMS SOUTH OF SAGAR ISLANDS (WEST BENGAL). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC
STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. IT WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS,
INTENSIFY FURTHER AND REACH NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR NORTH ODISHA
COAST
VERY CLOSE TO DHAMRA PORT BY THE EARLY MORNING OF WEDNESDAY, THE 26TH
MAY.
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CROSS NORTH ODISHA-WEST BENGAL COASTS BETWEEN
PARADIP
AND SAGAR ISLAND CLOSE TO NORTH OF DHAMRA AND SOUTH OF BALASORE,
DURING
NOON OF WEDNESDAY, THE 26TH MAY AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS
(.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N TO THE E OF 72 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILI4TY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N TO THE E OF 72 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 55 DEG E: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 55 DEG E: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 10/20 KTS TO
THE E OF 65 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE E OF 62 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE E OF 62 DEG E : 4-3 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR(.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 10/20 KTS TO
THE E OF 65 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE E OF 65 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDEPSREAD
RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE E OF 65 DEG E : 4-3 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E ANDTHENCE
S-WARDS
TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 5 DEG N: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 90
DEG(.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 4 DEG N: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 94
DEG(.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1) N OF 18 DEG N: CYCLONIC 80/90 KTS(.)
2)S OF 18 DEG N: SW/W-LY 30/40 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 16 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE E OF 86 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 16 DEG N : 3-2 NM(.)
2)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE E OF 86 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 16 DEG N: OVER 14.0 MTR(.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1) N OF 20 DEG N: CYCLONIC 75/85 KTS (.)
2)S OF 16 DEG N: SW/W-LY 30/40 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 20 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE E OF 88 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 20 DEG N : 3-2 NM(.)
2)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE E OF 88 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 18 DEG N: OVER14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2021-05-25 08:41


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 18.9N 88.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 88.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.1N 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.1N 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 22.0N 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 22.8N 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 24.4N 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 88.4E.
25MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222
NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW/DEMS T3.5 (55KTS) AND A
PARTIAL 250410Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE. THE STORM CENTER REMAINS
EMBEDDED IN DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTH,
ALONG WITH THE FASTER WINDS INDICATED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
AND THE OLDER BULLSEYE 250255Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60KTS IS SET WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55KTS), THE ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF T3.4 (53KTS), AND LOWER THAN THE 250615Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 67KTS. TC 02B IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (30-
31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE RELATIVE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (20-25KTS). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UP TO
LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER 26/06Z. TC 02B WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 12, THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 15KTS, ALLOWING TC
02B TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65KTS. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR BHITARKANIKA NATIONAL PARK, INDIA. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN DECAYING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND FULLY
DISSIPATE BY TAU 72, IF NOT SOONER. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 50 NM AT TAU 24, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 27
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-05-25 08:36


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 250900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02B NIO 210525073918
2021052506 02B YAAS 006 01 355 09 SATL 050
T000 189N 0885E 060 R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 165 SE QD 135 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 201N 0879E 065 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 211N 0872E 065 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 220N 0863E 045 R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 228N 0853E 030
T072 244N 0834E 025
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 18.9N 88.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 88.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.1N 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.1N 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 22.0N 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 22.8N 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 24.4N 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 88.4E.
25MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222
NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z,
260300Z AND 260900Z.//
0221052218 155N 882E 25
0221052300 155N 884E 25
0221052306 155N 886E 25
0221052312 155N 888E 30
0221052318 156N 892E 35
0221052400 162N 900E 35
0221052406 165N 897E 35
0221052412 167N 893E 40
0221052418 173N 891E 50
0221052418 173N 891E 50
0221052500 180N 886E 60
0221052500 180N 886E 60
0221052506 189N 885E 60
0221052506 189N 885E 60
NNNN

>

2021-05-25 06:00


Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 250557
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0000 UTC 25 MAY 2021.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM YAAS (PRONOUNCED AS 'YASS') OVER
EASTCENTRAL
BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 10
KMPH
DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF THE 25TH MAY,
2021
OVEREASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR
LATITUDE 18.0 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 88.6 DEG E, ABOUT 320 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF PARADIP (42976), 430 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BALASORE (42895),
420 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIGHA (42901) AND 470 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF KHEPUPARA (41984).
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFY FURTHER
INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. IT WOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFY FURTHER AND REACH
NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR NORTH ODISHA AND WEST BENGAL COASTS VERY
CLOSE TO CHANDBALI-DHAMRA PORT BY 26TH MAY EARLY MORNING (2100 UTC OF
25TH
-0000 UTC OF 26TH). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CROSS NORTH ODISHA-WEST
BENGAL
COASTS BETWEEN PARADIP (42976) AND SAGAR ISLANDS (42903) AROUND
BALASORE
(42895) DURING NOON (DURING 0500-0700 UTC) OF 26TH MAY AS A VERY
SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM.(.)

PART-II (.)


A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E: W/SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 55 DEG E: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E: NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS BEC W/SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE E OF
72 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS
(.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N TO THE E OF 72 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N TO THE E OF 72 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)
3)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 55 DEG E: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS TO
THE E OF 65 DEG E(.)
2)N OF 20 DEG N: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N TO THE E OF 55 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N TO THE E OF 55 DEG E : 4-3 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR(.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS TO
THE E OF 64 DEG E(.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO THE E OF 62 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDEPSREAD
RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO THE E OF 62 DEG E : 4-3 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E ANDTHENCE
S-WARDS
TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1) N OF 15 DEG N: CYCLONIC 60/70 KTS(.)
2)S OF 15 DEG N: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 83 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 83 DEG E : 3-2 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 15 DEG N: OVER 14.0 MTR(.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1) N OF 1 DEG N: CYCLONIC 70/80 KTS (.)
2)S OF 16 DEG N: SW/W-LY 20/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 84 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 84 DEG E : 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 17 DEG N: OVER14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)

PART-II (.)


A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E: W/SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 55 DEG E: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E: NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS BEC W/SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE E OF
72 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS
(.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N TO THE E OF 72 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N TO THE E OF 72 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)
3)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 55 DEG E: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS TO
THE E OF 65 DEG E(.)
2)N OF 20 DEG N: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N TO THE E OF 55 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N TO THE E OF 55 DEG E : 4-3 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR(.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS TO
THE E OF 64 DEG E(.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO THE E OF 62 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDEPSREAD
RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO THE E OF 62 DEG E : 4-3 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E ANDTHENCE
S-WARDS
TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1) N OF 16 DEG N: CYCLONIC 80/90 KTS(.)
2)S OF 15 DEG N: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 83 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 83 DEG E : 3-2 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 16 DEG N: OVER 14.0 MTR(.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1) N OF 17 DEG N: CYCLONIC 80/90 KTS (.)
2)S OF 16 DEG N: SW/W-LY 20/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 84 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 84 DEG E : 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 17 DEG N: OVER14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
++++=

>

2021-05-25 02:17


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 250300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02B NIO 210525011547
2021052500 02B YAAS 005 01 330 11 SATL 010
T000 182N 0881E 060 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 140 SE QD 135 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 194N 0876E 065 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 207N 0870E 070 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 216N 0861E 045 R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 224N 0852E 035 R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 240N 0833E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 18.2N 88.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 88.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.4N 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.7N 87.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 21.6N 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 22.4N 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 24.0N 83.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 88.0E.
25MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265
NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.
//
0221052218 155N 882E 25
0221052300 155N 884E 25
0221052306 155N 886E 25
0221052312 155N 888E 30
0221052318 156N 892E 35
0221052400 162N 900E 35
0221052406 165N 897E 35
0221052412 167N 893E 40
0221052418 173N 887E 50
0221052418 173N 887E 50
0221052500 182N 881E 60
0221052500 182N 881E 60
NNNN

>

2021-05-25 02:16


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 18.2N 88.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 88.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.4N 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.7N 87.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 21.6N 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 22.4N 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 24.0N 83.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 88.0E.
25MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265
NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 242345Z PGTW FIX AND A
PARTIAL 242317Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS WHICH SHOW THE STORM
CENTER EMBEDDED IN DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE
SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55
KTS) AND MORE REFLECTIVE OF A 241932Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 61 KTS. TC
02B IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST
WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND VERY WARM (31-32 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15-20 KTS). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UP TO LANDFALL AT 26/00Z
AS IT WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER
TAU 12, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO <15 KTS,
ALLOWING TC 02B TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KTS BY TAU 24 WHILE
MAKING LANDFALL NEAR BHITARKANIKA NATIONAL PARK, INDIA. AFTER TAU
36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN RAPIDLY DECAYING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION
AND BECOMING FULLY DISSIPATED BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 35 NM AT TAU 24, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS
29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-05-24 20:31


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 17.3N 88.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 88.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 18.4N 88.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.5N 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.6N 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.6N 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 23.1N 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 88.6E.
24MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 318
NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-05-24 20:30


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 242100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02B NIO 210524193127
2021052418 02B YAAS 004 01 315 08 SATL SYNP 010
T000 173N 0887E 050 R050 000 NE QD 065 SE QD 090 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 184N 0881E 060 R050 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 195N 0876E 070 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 206N 0868E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 216N 0861E 040 R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 231N 0842E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 17.3N 88.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 88.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 18.4N 88.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.5N 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.6N 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.6N 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 23.1N 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 88.6E.
24MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 318
NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.
//
0221052218 155N 882E 25
0221052300 155N 884E 25
0221052306 155N 886E 25
0221052312 155N 888E 30
0221052318 156N 892E 35
0221052400 162N 900E 35
0221052406 165N 897E 35
0221052412 167N 893E 40
0221052418 173N 887E 50
0221052418 173N 887E 50
NNNN

>

2021-05-24 18:02


Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 241800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 24 MAY 2021.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE CYCLONIC STORM YAAS (PRONOUNCED AS YASS) OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF
BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 06 KNOTS
DURING
PAST 6 HOURS, AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 HRS UTC OF TODAY,
THE 24 TH MAY, 2021 OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE
17.1 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 89.3 DEG E, ABOUT 710 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
PORT
BLAIR (ANDAMAN ISLANDS), 450 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP (ODISHA),
550 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BALASORE (ODISHA) AND 540 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF DIGHA (WEST BENGAL). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS,
INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS
AND
INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING SUBSEQUENT 12 HOURS. IT
WOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFY FURTHER AND REACH
NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR NORTH ODISHA AND WEST BENGAL COASTS BY
26TH MAY EARLY MORNING. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CROSS NORTH ODISHA-WEST
BENGAL COASTS BETWEEN PARADIP AND SAGAR ISLAND AROUND BALASORE,
DURING
NOON OF 26TH MAY AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM. (.)

PART-II (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
2)E OF 60 DEG E: W/SW-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 55 DEG E: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS
(.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N TO THE E OF 72 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 5 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 5 DEG N TO THE E OF 72 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 55 DEG E: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)S OF 20 DEG N: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS TO
THE E OF 65 DEG E(.)
2)N OF 20 DEG N: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E : 4-3 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS TO
THE E OF 66 DEG E(.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO THE E OF 62 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDEPSREAD
RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO THE E OF 62 DEG E : 4-3 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E ANDTHENCE
S-WARDS
TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1) N OF 15 DEG N: CYCLONIC 70/80 KTS (.)
2)S OF 15 DEG N: SW/W-LY 15/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 83 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 83 DEG E : 3-2 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 15 DEG N: OVER 14.0 MTR(.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1) N OF 17 DEG N: CYCLONIC 75/90 KTS (.)
2)S OF 17 DEG N: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 84 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 84 DEG E : 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)N OF 17 DEG N: OVER14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2021-05-24 14:54


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 241500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02B NIO 210524131944
2021052412 02B YAAS 003 01 315 07 SATL 050
T000 173N 0892E 040 R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 150 SW QD 180 NW QD
T012 184N 0887E 050 R034 220 NE QD 190 SE QD 200 SW QD 185 NW QD
T024 197N 0880E 060 R050 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 190 SE QD 210 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 207N 0874E 070 R064 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 217N 0866E 080 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 180 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 234N 0850E 045
T096 251N 0829E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 17.3N 89.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 89.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.4N 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.7N 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.7N 87.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 21.7N 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 23.4N 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.1N 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 89.1E.
24MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 321
NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
//
0221052218 155N 882E 25
0221052300 155N 884E 25
0221052306 155N 886E 25
0221052312 155N 888E 30
0221052318 156N 892E 35
0221052400 162N 900E 35
0221052406 168N 897E 35
0221052412 173N 892E 40
NNNN

>

2021-05-24 14:40


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 17.3N 89.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 89.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.4N 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.7N 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.7N 87.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 21.7N 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 23.4N 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.1N 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 89.1E.
24MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B (YAAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 321
NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING BUT BROAD, PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH A WIDE SWATH OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE MSI AND A 241042Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE THAT SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS
IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) AND A
241145Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 2.6 (37 KTS). ADDITIONALLY, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY A 24/13Z SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM BUOY
23009 (15.0N 89.1E) SHOWING WSW WINDS OF 41 KNOTS. TC 02B IS
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-25 KTS) OFFSET BY ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT STEADILY INTENSIFIES AND TRACKS NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE TO <15 KTS, ALLOWING TC 02B TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80
KTS NEAR TAU 48 JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA.
AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND WILL RAPIDLY
WEAKEN WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 50 NM AT TAU 36, LENDING TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND
251500Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-05-24 08:58


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 240900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02B NIO 210524073126
2021052406 02B YAAS 002 01 360 06 SATL 060
T000 168N 0900E 035 R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 178N 0895E 045 R034 220 NE QD 190 SE QD 200 SW QD 185 NW QD
T024 189N 0890E 060 R050 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 190 SE QD 210 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 202N 0883E 070 R064 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 212N 0876E 080 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 180 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 227N 0860E 045 R034 040 NE QD 125 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 247N 0838E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 16.8N 90.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 90.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.8N 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 18.9N 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.2N 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.2N 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 22.7N 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 24.7N 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 89.9E.
24MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.
//
0221052218 155N 882E 25
0221052300 155N 884E 25
0221052306 155N 886E 25
0221052312 155N 888E 30
0221052318 156N 892E 35
0221052400 162N 900E 35
0221052406 168N 900E 35
NNNN

>

2021-05-24 08:51


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 16.8N 90.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 90.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.8N 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 18.9N 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.2N 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.2N 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 22.7N 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 24.7N 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 89.9E.
24MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B (YAAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING BUT BROAD, PARTLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A WIDE SWATH OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE CENTROID OF A BROAD BUT DEFINED CENTER IN MSI. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED OFF THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS)
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH A 240715Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35 KTS). TC 02B
IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-25 KTS) OFFSET BY ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
AFTER TAU 24, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE,
ALLOWING TC 02B TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KTS AT TAU 48 JUST
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NVGM, WHICH HAS THE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL SLIGHTLY
FURTHER WESTWARD. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK WHICH IS PLACED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-05-24 03:10


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 16.0N 89.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 89.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 16.8N 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.9N 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.1N 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.4N 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 22.3N 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.8N 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 89.8E.
24MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 404 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) IS SHOWING PRONOUNCED CONSOLIDATION AND TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
FIELDS AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). PREVIOUSLY, IT CARRIED THE SIGNATURE AND BROAD WIND FIELDS OF A
MONSOON DEPRESSION, BUT RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY AND RECENT MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SHOW SUBSTANTIAL TIGHTENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE DUE TO AN EXPOSED LLCC AND TWO MICROWAVE IMAGES (A 232223Z SSMI AND 232245Z SSMIS). A 231149Z SMAP PASS SHOWED THE HEAVY ASYMMETRY OF THE SYSTEM WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE BUT MUCH LIGHTER EASTERLIES OVER THE POLEWARD SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER, BUOY OBSERVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS VERIFY INCREASING INTENSITY OF THE EASTERLIES AND FALLING PRESSURES ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. PREVIOUSLY, THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS FORCED BY A WESTERLY WIND BURST ASSOCIATED WITH THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION AND THE INDIAN MONSOON CIRCULATION, BUT NOW THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO ROTATE INDEPENDENTLY AS IT BEGINS A POLEWARD DRIFT. THE INITIAL TRACK IS FOR THE FIRST TWELVE HOURS IS UNCERTAIN, WITH THE NEWLY FORMING LLCC ROTATING AROUND A BROAD AND DIFFUSE CENTROID, BUT BY TAU 12 THE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENDING OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK DIRECTLY TOWARDS THE AREA OF PARADIP, INDIA. 31 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION AND LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE, ALONG WITH MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-25 KT) FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTORS ON INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES SUPPRESSED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE FIGHTING 20-30KTS OF SHEAR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SHEAR WILL EASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND TC 02B WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. DUE TO ITS ORIGIN AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION AND THE VIGOROUS MONSOONAL SOUTHWESTERLIES, TC 02B WILL CARRY EXPANSIVE GALE FORCE WIND FIELDS THROUGHOUT ITS LIFE SPAN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-05-24 02:53


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 240300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02B NIO 210524020315
2021052400 02B TWO 001 01 055 07 SATL SYNP 060
T000 160N 0898E 035 R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 168N 0897E 045 R034 220 NE QD 190 SE QD 200 SW QD 185 NW QD
T024 179N 0893E 060 R050 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 190 SE QD 210 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 191N 0887E 070 R064 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 204N 0879E 080 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 180 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 223N 0861E 045 R034 040 NE QD 125 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 238N 0836E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 16.0N 89.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 89.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 16.8N 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.9N 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.1N 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.4N 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 22.3N 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.8N 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 89.8E.
24MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 404 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) IS SHOWING PRONOUNCED CONSOLIDATION AND TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
FIELDS AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). PREVIOUSLY, IT CARRIED THE SIGNATURE AND BROAD WIND FIELDS OF A
MONSOON DEPRESSION, BUT RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY AND RECENT MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SHOW SUBSTANTIAL TIGHTENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE DUE TO AN EXPOSED LLCC AND TWO MICROWAVE IMAGES (A 232223Z SSMI AND 232245Z SSMIS). A 231149Z SMAP PASS SHOWED THE HEAVY ASYMMETRY OF THE SYSTEM WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE BUT MUCH LIGHTER EASTERLIES OVER THE POLEWARD SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER, BUOY OBSERVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS VERIFY INCREASING INTENSITY OF THE EASTERLIES AND FALLING PRESSURES ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. PREVIOUSLY, THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS FORCED BY A WESTERLY WIND BURST ASSOCIATED WITH THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION AND THE INDIAN MONSOON CIRCULATION, BUT NOW THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO ROTATE INDEPENDENTLY AS IT BEGINS A POLEWARD DRIFT. THE INITIAL TRACK IS FOR THE FIRST TWELVE HOURS IS UNCERTAIN, WITH THE NEWLY FORMING LLCC ROTATING AROUND A BROAD AND DIFFUSE CENTROID, BUT BY TAU 12 THE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SOUTHEAST ASIA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK DIRECTLY TOWARDS THE AREA OF PARADIP, INDIA. 31 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION AND LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE, ALONG WITH MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-25 KT) FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTORS ON INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES SUPPRESSED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE FIGHTING 20-30KTS OF SHEAR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SHEAR WILL EASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND TC 02B WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. DUE TO ITS ORIGIN AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION AND THE VIGOROUS MONSOONAL SOUTHWESTERLIES, TC 02B WILL CARRY EXPANSIVE GALE FORCE WIND FIELDS THROUGHOUT ITS LIFE SPAN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
//
0221052218 155N 882E 25
0221052300 155N 884E 25
0221052306 155N 886E 25
0221052312 155N 888E 30
0221052318 156N 892E 35
0221052400 160N 898E 35
NNNN

>