Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SURIGAE-21
in Japan, Philippines, Palau

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 250000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 46
NAME LOW FROM 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 250000UTC 21.7N 136.0E
MOVEMENT E 17KT
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 22N 136E
MOVE E 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 300NM =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 22N 136E
MOVE E 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 300NM =


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 242100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 242100UTC 21.6N 134.9E FAIR
MOVE ESE 16KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 250900UTC 22.4N 138.6E 60NM 70%
MOVE E 18KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 252100UTC 24.2N 143.6E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 242100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 242100UTC 21.6N 134.9E FAIR
MOVE ESE 16KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 252100UTC 24.2N 143.6E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 242100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210424191223
2021042418 02W SURIGAE 046 01 115 12 SATL 030
T000 217N 1341E 040 R034 260 NE QD 140 SE QD 125 SW QD 170 NW QD
T012 220N 1378E 040 R034 230 NE QD 140 SE QD 115 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 237N 1424E 040 R034 230 NE QD 150 SE QD 105 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 046
1. SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 046
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 21.7N 134.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 134.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.0N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 23.7N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 135.0E.
24APR21. SUBTROPICAL STORM (SS) 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 438
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z
IS 22 FEET.//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042218 216N1270E 80
0221042218 216N1270E 80
0221042218 216N1270E 80
0221042300 222N1280E 75
0221042300 222N1280E 75
0221042300 222N1280E 75
0221042306 230N1292E 65
0221042306 230N1292E 65
0221042306 230N1292E 65
0221042312 233N1299E 60
0221042312 233N1299E 60
0221042318 232N1305E 55
0221042318 232N1305E 55
0221042400 230N1312E 45
0221042406 227N1319E 45
0221042412 222N1329E 40
0221042418 217N1341E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 046
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 21.7N 134.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 134.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.0N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 23.7N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 135.0E.
24APR21. SUBTROPICAL STORM (SS) 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
438 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM BUT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC, FRONTAL STRUCTURE WITH EXTENSIVE DRY AIR PUNCHING
INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
UNDER A MAJOR UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AS EVIDENCED BY
EXPANSIVE COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA AS
WELL AS A 240911Z SENTINEL-1B SAR PASS, WHICH INDICATES MAXIMUM
WINDS OF 40-48 KNOTS. SS 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD TO EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
SURIGAE WILL COMPLETE ETT AS A MINOR SHORT-WAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF KYUSHU, DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS PROVIDING UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT. THE SYSTEM MAY INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY AS AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND WILL REMAIN A LARGE, GALE-FORCE LOW AS IT TRANSITS SOUTH
OF JAPAN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 22
FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.48 FOR TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 21.9N, 133.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 241800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 45
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 241800UTC 21.7N 134.2E
MOVEMENT ESE 14KT
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 250600UTC 22.5N 137.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 21.9N 133.7E FAIR
MOVE SE 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 250600UTC 22.1N 137.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE E 18KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 251800UTC 23.9N 142.2E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 21.9N 133.7E FAIR
MOVE SE 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 251800UTC 23.9N 142.2E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 241800
WARNING 241800.
WARNING VALID 251800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 996 HPA
AT 21.9N 133.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING SOUTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 22.1N 137.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 23.9N 142.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 241500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241500UTC 22.1N 133.3E FAIR
MOVE ESE 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 250300UTC 22.2N 136.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE E 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 251500UTC 23.3N 140.4E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 241500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241500UTC 22.1N 133.3E FAIR
MOVE ESE 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 251500UTC 23.3N 140.4E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 241500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210424132310
2021042412 02W SURIGAE 045 01 120 11 SATL 040
T000 222N 1329E 040 R034 245 NE QD 165 SE QD 150 SW QD 195 NW QD
T012 218N 1356E 040 R034 240 NE QD 170 SE QD 145 SW QD 205 NW QD
T024 227N 1396E 035 R034 240 NE QD 170 SE QD 145 SW QD 205 NW QD
T036 245N 1443E 035 R034 230 NE QD 175 SE QD 175 SW QD 175 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 045
1. SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 045
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 22.2N 132.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 132.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 21.8N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 22.7N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 24.5N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 133.6E.
24APR21. SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 488
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042218 216N1270E 80
0221042218 216N1270E 80
0221042218 216N1270E 80
0221042300 222N1280E 75
0221042300 222N1280E 75
0221042300 222N1280E 75
0221042306 230N1292E 65
0221042306 230N1292E 65
0221042306 230N1292E 65
0221042312 233N1299E 60
0221042312 233N1299E 60
0221042318 232N1305E 55
0221042318 232N1305E 55
0221042400 230N1312E 45
0221042406 227N1319E 45
0221042412 222N1329E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 045//
RMKS/
1. SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 045
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 22.2N 132.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 132.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 21.8N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 22.7N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 24.5N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 133.6E.
24APR21. SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 488
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND
251500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.47 FOR TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 22.7N, 132.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW SSTS AND
LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 241200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 44
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 241200UTC 22.2N 132.8E
MOVEMENT SE 12KT
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 250000UTC 22.3N 135.7E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
24HR
POSITION 251200UTC 23.1N 139.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 22.7N 132.7E FAIR
MOVE E 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
12HF 250000UTC 22.0N 135.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE E 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 251200UTC 22.9N 139.2E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 22.7N 132.7E FAIR
MOVE E 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 22.9N 139.2E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 241200
WARNING 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 992 HPA
AT 22.7N 132.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 22.0N 135.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 22.9N 139.2E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 240900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240900UTC 22.7N 132.3E FAIR
MOVE SE 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 250900UTC 23.0N 138.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 260600UTC 26.4N 148.5E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 240900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240900UTC 22.7N 132.3E FAIR
MOVE SE 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 250900UTC 23.0N 138.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 260600UTC 26.4N 148.5E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 240900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210424073837
2021042406 02W SURIGAE 044 01 115 07 SATL 020
T000 227N 1319E 045 R034 265 NE QD 145 SE QD 115 SW QD 185 NW QD
T012 224N 1341E 045 R034 240 NE QD 170 SE QD 145 SW QD 205 NW QD
T024 229N 1379E 040 R034 240 NE QD 170 SE QD 145 SW QD 205 NW QD
T036 244N 1424E 040 R034 230 NE QD 175 SE QD 175 SW QD 175 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 044
1. SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 22.7N 131.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 131.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.4N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.9N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 24.4N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 132.5E.
24APR21. SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042218 216N1270E 80
0221042218 216N1270E 80
0221042218 216N1270E 80
0221042300 222N1280E 75
0221042300 222N1280E 75
0221042300 222N1280E 75
0221042306 230N1292E 65
0221042306 230N1292E 65
0221042306 230N1292E 65
0221042312 233N1299E 60
0221042312 233N1299E 60
0221042318 232N1305E 55
0221042318 232N1305E 55
0221042400 230N1312E 45
0221042406 227N1319E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 22.7N 131.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 131.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.4N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.9N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 24.4N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 132.5E.
24APR21. SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND
250900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.46 FOR TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 22.8N, 131.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 240600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 43
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 240600UTC 22.7N 131.9E
MOVEMENT ESE 11KT
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 241800UTC 22.4N 134.3E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
24HR
POSITION 250600UTC 22.7N 137.2E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240600UTC 22.8N 131.8E FAIR
MOVE ESE 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 250600UTC 22.6N 137.6E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 260600UTC 26.4N 148.5E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240600UTC 22.8N 131.8E FAIR
MOVE ESE 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 250600UTC 22.6N 137.6E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 260600UTC 26.4N 148.5E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 240600
WARNING 240600.
WARNING VALID 250600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2102 SURIGAE (2102) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 992 HPA
AT 22.8N 131.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 22.6N 137.6E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 26.4N 148.5E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 240300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240300UTC 23.0N 131.4E FAIR
MOVE ESE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 250300UTC 22.6N 136.6E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 260000UTC 25.7N 145.3E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 240300
WARNING 240300.
WARNING VALID 250300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 990 HPA
AT 23.0N 131.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 22.6N 136.6E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 240300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240300UTC 23.0N 131.4E FAIR
MOVE ESE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 250300UTC 22.6N 136.6E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 260000UTC 25.7N 145.3E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 240300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210424012249
2021042400 02W SURIGAE 043 01 110 06 SATL 020
T000 230N 1311E 055 R050 115 NE QD 075 SE QD 085 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 185 NW QD
T012 227N 1331E 045 R034 260 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 228N 1360E 040 R034 190 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 238N 1401E 040 R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 256N 1452E 045 R034 220 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP 000HR EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 043
1. SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 23.0N 131.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 131.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.7N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.8N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 23.8N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 25.6N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 131.6E.
24APR21. SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570
NM WEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z,
242100Z AND 250300Z.//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042218 216N1270E 80
0221042218 216N1270E 80
0221042218 216N1270E 80
0221042300 222N1280E 75
0221042300 222N1280E 75
0221042300 222N1280E 75
0221042306 230N1292E 65
0221042306 230N1292E 65
0221042306 230N1292E 65
0221042312 233N1299E 60
0221042312 233N1299E 60
0221042318 232N1305E 60
0221042318 232N1305E 60
0221042400 230N1311E 55
0221042400 230N1311E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 23.0N 131.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 131.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.7N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.8N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 23.8N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 25.6N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 131.6E.
24APR21. SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570
NM WEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z,
242100Z AND 250300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.45 FOR STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 23.0N, 131.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW
HAVE BECOME OBSCURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 240000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 42
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 240000UTC 23.0N 131.1E
MOVEMENT ESE 9KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 241200UTC 22.5N 132.9E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 250000UTC 22.4N 135.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
36HR
POSITION 251200UTC 23.0N 138.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 23.0N 131.1E FAIR
MOVE ESE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 22.4N 135.7E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 260000UTC 25.7N 145.3E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 23.0N 131.1E FAIR
MOVE ESE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 22.4N 135.7E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 260000UTC 25.7N 145.3E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 240000
WARNING 240000.
WARNING VALID 250000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 990 HPA
AT 23.0N 131.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 22.4N 135.7E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 25.7N 145.3E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
986 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 232100
WARNING 232100.
WARNING VALID 242100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 985 HPA
AT 23.2N 130.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 242100UTC AT 22.6N 134.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 232100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 232100UTC 23.2N 130.7E FAIR
MOVE ESE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 242100UTC 22.6N 134.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 251800UTC 24.2N 141.6E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 232100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 232100UTC 23.2N 130.7E FAIR
MOVE ESE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 242100UTC 22.6N 134.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 251800UTC 24.2N 141.6E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 232100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210423193056
2021042318 02W SURIGAE 042 01 100 06 SATL 020
T000 232N 1305E 060 R050 115 NE QD 075 SE QD 085 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 185 NW QD
T012 229N 1321E 050 R050 070 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 226N 1345E 040 R034 220 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 230N 1377E 040 R034 180 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 245N 1423E 045 R034 220 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP 000HR EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 042
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 23.2N 130.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.2N 130.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.9N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.6N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 23.0N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 24.5N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 130.9E.
23APR21. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247
NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.
//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042218 216N1270E 80
0221042218 216N1270E 80
0221042218 216N1270E 80
0221042300 222N1280E 75
0221042300 222N1280E 75
0221042300 222N1280E 75
0221042306 230N1292E 65
0221042306 230N1292E 65
0221042306 230N1292E 65
0221042312 233N1299E 60
0221042312 233N1299E 60
0221042318 232N1305E 60
0221042318 232N1305E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 042//
RMKS/
1. SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 23.2N 130.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.2N 130.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.9N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.6N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 23.0N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 24.5N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 130.9E.
23APR21. SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247
NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.44 FOR STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 23.4N, 130.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS, DRY AIR AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 231800 CCA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231800UTC 23.4N 130.5E FAIR
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 241800UTC 22.4N 134.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE ESE 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 251800UTC 24.2N 141.6E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 231800 CCA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231800UTC 23.4N 130.5E FAIR
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 241800UTC 22.4N 134.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE ESE 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 251800UTC 24.2N 141.6E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 231800 CCA
WARNING 231800.
WARNING VALID 241800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 985 HPA
AT 23.4N 130.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 22.4N 134.0E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 24.2N 141.6E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
986 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 231800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 41
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 231800UTC 23.3N 130.5E
MOVEMENT E 5KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 240600UTC 22.7N 131.8E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 241800UTC 22.2N 134.3E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 250600UTC 22.6N 137.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231800UTC 23.4N 130.5E FAIR
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 241800UTC 22.4N 134.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE ESE 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 251800UTC 24.2N 141.6E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231800UTC 23.4N 130.5E FAIR
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 241800UTC 22.4N 134.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE ESE 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 251800UTC 24.2N 141.6E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 231800
WARNING 231800.
WARNING VALID 241800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 985 HPA
AT 23.4N 130.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 22.4N 134.0E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 24.2N 141.6E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 231500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231500UTC 23.4N 130.2E FAIR
MOVE E 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 241500UTC 22.5N 133.7E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 251200UTC 23.2N 139.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE E 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 261200UTC 26.6N 149.3E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 231500
WARNING 231500.
WARNING VALID 241500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 985 HPA
AT 23.4N 130.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 22.5N 133.7E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 231500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231500UTC 23.4N 130.2E FAIR
MOVE E 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 241500UTC 22.5N 133.7E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 251200UTC 23.2N 139.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE E 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 261200UTC 26.6N 149.3E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 231500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210423141439
2021042312 02W SURIGAE 041 01 065 07 SATL 020
T000 233N 1299E 060 R050 115 NE QD 085 SE QD 095 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 185 NW QD
T012 231N 1313E 050 R050 105 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 135 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 225N 1332E 045 R034 190 NE QD 135 SE QD 120 SW QD 155 NW QD
T036 225N 1363E 045 R034 190 NE QD 135 SE QD 120 SW QD 155 NW QD
T048 236N 1402E 050 R050 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 155 SE QD 145 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 294N 1517E 055 R050 085 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 225 NE QD 205 SE QD 165 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 041
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 041
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 23.3N 129.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 129.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.1N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.5N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.5N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 23.6N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 29.4N 151.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 130.3E.
23APR21. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 223
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.
//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042218 216N1270E 80
0221042218 216N1270E 80
0221042218 216N1270E 80
0221042300 222N1280E 75
0221042300 222N1280E 75
0221042300 222N1280E 75
0221042306 230N1292E 65
0221042306 230N1292E 65
0221042306 230N1292E 65
0221042312 233N1299E 60
0221042312 233N1299E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 041//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 041
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 23.3N 129.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 129.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.1N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.5N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.5N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 23.6N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 29.4N 151.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 130.3E.
23APR21. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 223
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.43 FOR STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 23.4N, 129.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAS
ALSO WEAKENED RAPIDLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOW SSTS OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F15/SSMI 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 231200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 40
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 231200UTC 23.3N 129.8E
MOVEMENT ENE 10KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 240000UTC 23.1N 131.1E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 241200UTC 22.3N 133.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 250000UTC 22.1N 135.9E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
48HR
POSITION 251200UTC 23.2N 139.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 23.4N 129.8E FAIR
MOVE E 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 22.6N 133.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 251200UTC 23.2N 139.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE E 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 261200UTC 26.6N 149.3E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 23.4N 129.8E FAIR
MOVE E 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 22.6N 133.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 251200UTC 23.2N 139.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE E 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 261200UTC 26.6N 149.3E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 231200
WARNING 231200.
WARNING VALID 241200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2102 SURIGAE (2102) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 985
HPA
AT 23.4N 129.8E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING EAST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 22.6N 133.0E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 23.2N 139.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 26.6N 149.3E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 230900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230900UTC 23.2N 129.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 240900UTC 23.0N 132.6E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 250600UTC 22.8N 137.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE E 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 260600UTC 26.7N 148.5E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 230900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230900UTC 23.2N 129.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 240900UTC 23.0N 132.6E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 250600UTC 22.8N 137.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE E 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 260600UTC 26.7N 148.5E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 230900
WARNING 230900.
WARNING VALID 240900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 975 HPA
AT 23.2N 129.2E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240900UTC AT 23.0N 132.6E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 230900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210423082156
2021042306 02W SURIGAE 040 01 050 12 SATL 020
T000 230N 1290E 065 R064 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 233N 1305E 055 R050 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 227N 1320E 045 R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 105 NW QD
T036 222N 1344E 045 R034 150 NE QD 125 SE QD 110 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 227N 1377E 050 R050 065 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 135 SE QD 110 SW QD 105 NW QD
T072 270N 1481E 055 R050 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 040
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 23.0N 129.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 129.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.3N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.7N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.2N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.7N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 27.0N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 129.4E.
23APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.
//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042218 215N1271E 80
0221042218 215N1271E 80
0221042218 215N1271E 80
0221042300 222N1280E 80
0221042300 222N1280E 80
0221042300 222N1280E 80
0221042306 230N1290E 65
0221042306 230N1290E 65
0221042306 230N1290E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 040//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 23.0N 129.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 129.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.3N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.7N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.2N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.7N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 27.0N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 129.4E.
23APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.42 FOR TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 23.2N, 128.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAS ALSO WEAKENED RAPIDLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW SSTS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW
SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 230600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 39
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 230600UTC 23.0N 128.8E
MOVEMENT NE 15KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 231800UTC 23.1N 130.5E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 240600UTC 22.1N 131.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 241800UTC 21.7N 134.3E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
48HR
POSITION 250600UTC 22.2N 138.1E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
72HR
POSITION 260600UTC 26.0N 147.5E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230600UTC 23.2N 128.9E FAIR
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 240600UTC 23.0N 131.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 250600UTC 22.8N 137.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE E 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 260600UTC 26.7N 148.5E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230600UTC 23.2N 128.9E FAIR
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 240600UTC 23.0N 131.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 250600UTC 22.8N 137.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE E 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 260600UTC 26.7N 148.5E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 230600
WARNING 230600.
WARNING VALID 240600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 975 HPA
AT 23.2N 128.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 23.0N 131.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 22.8N 137.7E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 26.7N 148.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 230300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230300UTC 22.9N 128.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 240300UTC 22.9N 131.4E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 250000UTC 21.8N 135.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE E 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 260000UTC 24.6N 145.0E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 230300
WARNING 230300.
WARNING VALID 240300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 970 HPA
AT 22.9N 128.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 22.9N 131.4E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 230300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230300UTC 22.9N 128.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 240300UTC 22.9N 131.4E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 250000UTC 21.8N 135.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE E 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 260000UTC 24.6N 145.0E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 230300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210423024112
2021042300 02W SURIGAE 039 01 050 13 SATL 035
T000 223N 1282E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 231N 1300E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 228N 1313E 045 R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 219N 1335E 040 R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 221N 1365E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T072 255N 1458E 055 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 145 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 039
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 22.3N 128.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 128.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.1N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.8N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.9N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.1N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 25.5N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 128.7E.
23APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH
EASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 35 FEE
T. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042218 215N1271E 80
0221042218 215N1271E 80
0221042218 215N1271E 80
0221042300 223N1282E 80
0221042300 223N1282E 80
0221042300 223N1282E 80

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 22.3N 128.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 128.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.1N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.8N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.9N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.1N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 25.5N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 128.7E.
23APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 35 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.41 FOR TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 22.8N, 128.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAS ALSO WEAKENED RAPIDLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW SSTS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 230000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 38
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 230000UTC 22.2N 128.0E
MOVEMENT NNE 7KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 231200UTC 23.1N 129.8E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
24HR
POSITION 240000UTC 22.5N 131.1E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
36HR
POSITION 241200UTC 21.8N 132.8E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 250000UTC 22.1N 136.4E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
72HR
POSITION 260000UTC 23.8N 143.3E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 22.8N 128.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 240000UTC 23.0N 131.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 250000UTC 21.8N 135.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE E 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 260000UTC 24.6N 145.0E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 22.8N 128.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 240000UTC 23.0N 131.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 250000UTC 21.8N 135.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE E 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 260000UTC 24.6N 145.0E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 230000
WARNING 230000.
WARNING VALID 240000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 970 HPA
AT 22.8N 128.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 23.0N 131.0E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 21.8N 135.8E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 24.6N 145.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 222100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 222100UTC 22.0N 127.9E FAIR
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 232100UTC 23.2N 130.7E 42NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 241800UTC 21.8N 134.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE ESE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 251800UTC 23.3N 141.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 261800UTC 24.6N 149.6E 260NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 222100
WARNING 222100.
WARNING VALID 232100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 965 HPA
AT 22.0N 127.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHEAST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 232100UTC AT 23.2N 130.7E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 222100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 222100UTC 22.0N 127.9E FAIR
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 232100UTC 23.2N 130.7E 42NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 241800UTC 21.8N 134.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE ESE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 251800UTC 23.3N 141.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 222100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210422202543
2021042218 02W SURIGAE 038 01 060 11 SATL 050
T000 215N 1271E 080 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 226N 1288E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 229N 1304E 055 R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 222N 1325E 045 R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 215N 1343E 040 R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 105 NW QD
T072 233N 1427E 040 R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD
T096 282N 1520E 045 R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 038
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 21.5N 127.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 127.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.6N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.9N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.2N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.5N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 23.3N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 28.2N 152.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 127.5E.
22APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 302 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042206 203N1254E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042212 210N1261E 90
0221042218 215N1271E 80
0221042218 215N1271E 80
0221042218 215N1271E 80
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 038//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 21.5N 127.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 127.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.6N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.9N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.2N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.5N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 23.3N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 28.2N 152.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 127.5E.
22APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 302 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.40 FOR TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 21.3N, 127.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 221800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 37
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 221800UTC 21.3N 127.1E
MOVEMENT ENE 6KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 230600UTC 22.9N 128.9E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
24HR
POSITION 231800UTC 23.1N 130.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
36HR
POSITION 240600UTC 22.0N 131.8E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 241800UTC 21.9N 134.6E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 251800UTC 23.5N 142.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221800UTC 21.3N 127.2E GOOD
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 231800UTC 23.3N 130.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 241800UTC 21.8N 134.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE ESE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 251800UTC 23.3N 141.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 261800UTC 24.6N 149.6E 260NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221800UTC 21.3N 127.2E GOOD
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 231800UTC 23.3N 130.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 241800UTC 21.8N 134.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE ESE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 251800UTC 23.3N 141.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 221800
WARNING 221800.
WARNING VALID 231800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 955 HPA
AT 21.3N 127.2E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHEAST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 23.3N 130.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 21.8N 134.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 23.3N 141.5E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 24.6N 149.6E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 221500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221500UTC 21.2N 126.6E GOOD
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 231500UTC 23.1N 130.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 241200UTC 21.9N 133.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE ESE 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 251200UTC 22.8N 139.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE E 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 261200UTC 25.9N 149.4E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 221500
WARNING 221500.
WARNING VALID 231500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 950 HPA
AT 21.2N 126.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 23.1N 130.2E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 221500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221500UTC 21.2N 126.6E GOOD
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 231500UTC 23.1N 130.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 241200UTC 21.9N 133.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE ESE 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 251200UTC 22.8N 139.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE E 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 221500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210422144649
2021042212 02W SURIGAE 037 01 055 09 SATL 025
T000 208N 1261E 085 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 155 SE QD 135 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 220N 1279E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 227N 1297E 060 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 145 SE QD 135 SW QD 105 NW QD
T036 224N 1313E 050 R034 155 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 218N 1334E 040 R034 155 NE QD 150 SE QD 145 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 230N 1401E 040 R034 160 NE QD 145 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 289N 1504E 045 R034 205 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 190 NW QD
T120 373N 1591E 045 R034 250 NE QD 180 SE QD 145 SW QD 240 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 037
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 20.8N 126.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 126.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.0N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.7N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.4N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.8N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 23.0N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 28.9N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 37.3N 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 126.6E.
22APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.
//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 120
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042112 188N1248E 115
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042206 203N1253E 90
0221042206 203N1253E 90
0221042206 203N1253E 90
0221042212 208N1261E 85
0221042212 208N1261E 85
0221042212 208N1261E 85
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 20.8N 126.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 126.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.0N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.7N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.4N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.8N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 23.0N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 28.9N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 37.3N 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 126.6E.
22APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.39 FOR TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 20.9N, 126.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 221200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 36
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 221200UTC 20.8N 126.2E
MOVEMENT NE 8KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 230000UTC 22.4N 127.9E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
24HR
POSITION 231200UTC 23.1N 129.9E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
36HR
POSITION 240000UTC 22.6N 131.1E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
48HR
POSITION 241200UTC 21.7N 133.2E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
72HR
POSITION 251200UTC 23.1N 140.2E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
96HR
POSITION 261200UTC 26.1N 149.0E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 20.9N 126.2E GOOD
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 231200UTC 23.0N 129.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 241200UTC 21.9N 133.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE ESE 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 251200UTC 22.8N 139.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE E 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 261200UTC 25.9N 149.4E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 20.9N 126.2E GOOD
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 231200UTC 23.0N 129.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 241200UTC 21.9N 133.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE ESE 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 251200UTC 22.8N 139.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE E 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 221200
WARNING 221200.
WARNING VALID 231200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 950 HPA
AT 20.9N 126.2E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHEAST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 23.0N 129.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 21.9N 133.2E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 22.8N 139.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 25.9N 149.4E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 220900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220900UTC 20.4N 125.8E GOOD
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 230900UTC 22.9N 129.4E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 240600UTC 22.0N 132.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE E 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 250600UTC 22.4N 138.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE E 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 260600UTC 24.3N 145.7E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 220900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220900UTC 20.4N 125.8E GOOD
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 230900UTC 22.9N 129.4E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 240600UTC 22.0N 132.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE E 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 250600UTC 22.4N 138.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE E 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 220900
WARNING 220900.
WARNING VALID 230900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 950 HPA
AT 20.4N 125.8E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230900UTC AT 22.9N 129.4E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 220900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210422082608
2021042206 02W SURIGAE 036 01 030 07 SATL 025
T000 203N 1253E 090 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 160 SE QD 145 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 215N 1268E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 225N 1288E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 145 SE QD 135 SW QD 105 NW QD
T036 227N 1305E 055 R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 221N 1326E 045 R034 155 NE QD 150 SE QD 145 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 222N 1381E 045 R034 160 NE QD 145 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 266N 1480E 045 R034 195 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 180 NW QD
T120 333N 1578E 040 R034 230 NE QD 180 SE QD 145 SW QD 220 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 036
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 20.3N 125.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 125.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.5N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.5N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.7N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.1N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.2N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 26.6N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 33.3N 157.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 125.7E.
22APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 397 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 115
0221042106 181N1249E 115
0221042106 181N1249E 115
0221042112 188N1247E 110
0221042112 188N1247E 110
0221042112 188N1247E 110
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042118 193N1248E 105
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042200 197N1249E 100
0221042206 203N1253E 90
0221042206 203N1253E 90
0221042206 203N1253E 90
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 20.3N 125.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 125.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.5N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.5N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.7N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.1N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.2N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 26.6N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 33.3N 157.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 125.7E.
22APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 397 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.38 FOR TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 20.3N, 125.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 220600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 35
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 220600UTC 20.2N 125.4E
MOVEMENT NE 5KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 221800UTC 21.5N 126.8E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
24HR
POSITION 230600UTC 22.5N 128.7E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
36HR
POSITION 231800UTC 22.1N 131.0E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
48HR
POSITION 240600UTC 22.0N 133.7E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
72HR
POSITION 250600UTC 22.3N 139.3E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
96HR
POSITION 260600UTC 24.1N 145.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220600UTC 20.3N 125.4E GOOD
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 230600UTC 22.7N 129.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 240600UTC 22.0N 132.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE E 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 250600UTC 22.4N 138.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE E 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 260600UTC 24.3N 145.7E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220600UTC 20.3N 125.4E GOOD
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 230600UTC 22.7N 129.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 240600UTC 22.0N 132.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE E 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 250600UTC 22.4N 138.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE E 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 220600
WARNING 220600.
WARNING VALID 230600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 950 HPA
AT 20.3N 125.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 22.7N 129.0E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 22.0N 132.1E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 22.4N 138.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 24.3N 145.7E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 220300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220300UTC 20.0N 125.1E GOOD
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 230300UTC 22.2N 128.4E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 240000UTC 22.4N 131.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE E 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 250000UTC 21.9N 136.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE E 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 260000UTC 23.2N 143.5E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 220300
WARNING 220300.
WARNING VALID 230300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 940 HPA
AT 20.0N 125.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 22.2N 128.4E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 220300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220300UTC 20.0N 125.1E GOOD
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 230300UTC 22.2N 128.4E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 240000UTC 22.4N 131.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE E 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 250000UTC 21.9N 136.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE E 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.37 FOR TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 19.7N, 124.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 90KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 220000
WARNING 220000.
WARNING VALID 230000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 940 HPA
AT 19.7N 124.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 22.1N 127.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 22.4N 131.4E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 21.9N 136.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 23.2N 143.5E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 212245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 212100 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON SURIGAE (2102) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (124.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 222100 UTC
TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (21.9 N)
ONE TWO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (127.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 232100 UTC
TWO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (22.6 N)
ONE THREE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (130.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 242100 UTC
TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N)
ONE THREE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (135.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 252100 UTC
TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (22.7 N)
ONE FOUR ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (141.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 262100 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 212100
WARNING 212100.
WARNING VALID 222100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 940 HPA
AT 19.5N 124.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 222100UTC AT 21.9N 127.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 211945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 211800 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON SURIGAE (2102) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE
TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (124.7 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH SLOWLY AT FIRST, AND THEN NORTHEAST LATER FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 221800 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (126.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 231800 UTC
TWO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (22.5 N)
ONE THREE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (130.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241800 UTC
TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (21.1 N)
ONE THREE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (134.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251800 UTC
TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (22.2 N)
ONE FOUR ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (140.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261800 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 211645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 211500 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON SURIGAE (2102) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (124.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH SLOWLY AT FIRST, AND THEN NORTHEAST LATER FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 221500 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (126.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 231500 UTC
TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (22.2 N)
ONE TWO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (129.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241500 UTC
TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (21.1 N)
ONE THREE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (134.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251500 UTC
TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (22.4 N)
ONE FOUR ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (141.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261500 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (24.0 N)
ONE FOUR EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (148.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 211500
WARNING 211500.
WARNING VALID 221500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 940 HPA
AT 19.0N 124.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 21.0N 126.4E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 211345 CCA

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 211200 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON SURIGAE (2102) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N) ONE
TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (124.8 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH SLOWLY AT FIRST, AND THEN NORTHEAST LATER FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 221200 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (125.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 231200 UTC
TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (22.2 N)
ONE TWO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (129.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241200 UTC
TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (21.1 N)
ONE THREE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (133.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251200 UTC
TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (22.2 N)
ONE FOUR ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (140.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261200 UTC
TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (23.8 N)
ONE FOUR SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (147.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 211345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 211200 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON SURIGAE (2102) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N) ONE
TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (124.8 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH SLOWLY AT FIRST, AND THEN NORTH EAST LATER
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 221200 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (125.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 231200 UTC
TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (22.2 N)
ONE TWO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (129.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241200 UTC
TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (21.1 N)
ONE THREE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (133.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251200 UTC
TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (22.2 N)
ONE FOUR ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (140.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 211045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 210900 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON SURIGAE (2102) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (124.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH SLOWLY AT FIRST, AND THEN NORTH EAST LATER FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 220900 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (125.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230900 UTC
TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (22.1 N)
ONE TWO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (128.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240900 UTC
TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N)
ONE THREE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (132.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250900 UTC
TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N)
ONE THREE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (139.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260900 UTC
TWO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (26.0 N)
ONE FOUR SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (147.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 210900
WARNING 210900.
WARNING VALID 220900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 940 HPA
AT 18.4N 124.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220900UTC AT 20.4N 125.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 210900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210421072946
2021042106 02W SURIGAE 032 01 335 07 SATL 010
T000 181N 1249E 115 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 191N 1246E 110 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 201N 1250E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 211N 1266E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 218N 1286E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 220N 1332E 060 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 221N 1387E 050 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 244N 1462E 045 R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 032
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 18.1N 124.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 124.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.1N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.1N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.1N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.8N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.0N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.1N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 24.4N 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 124.8E.
21APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 307 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.
//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042018 169N1256E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042100 175N1252E 120
0221042106 181N1249E 115
0221042106 181N1249E 115
0221042106 181N1249E 115
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 18.1N 124.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 124.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.1N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.1N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.1N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.8N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.0N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.1N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 24.4N 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 124.8E.
21APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 307 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 210745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 210600 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON SURIGAE (2102) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 935 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (124.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST SLOWLY AT FIRST, AND THEN NORTHEAST
LATER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 220600 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (125.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230600 UTC
TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N)
ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (128.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240600 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N)
ONE THREE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (132.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250600 UTC
TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N)
ONE THREE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (138.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260600 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (25.5 N)
ONE FOUR SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (146.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 210445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 210300 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON SURIGAE (2102) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 935 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N) ONE
TWO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (125.0 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST SLOWLY AT FIRST, AND THEN NORTHEAST
LATER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 220300 UTC
ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (124.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230300 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N)
ONE TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (127.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240300 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N)
ONE THREE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (131.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250300 UTC
TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (21.1 N)
ONE THREE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (137.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260300 UTC
TWO THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (23.3 N)
ONE FOUR THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (143.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 210300
WARNING 210300.
WARNING VALID 220300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 940 HPA
AT 17.7N 125.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220300UTC AT 19.6N 125.1E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 210300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210421012740
2021042100 02W SURIGAE 031 01 325 05 SATL 010
T000 174N 1252E 120 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 110 SE QD 075 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 184N 1248E 115 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 193N 1249E 115 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 203N 1259E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 211N 1276E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 217N 1317E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 216N 1367E 055 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 236N 1428E 045 R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 031
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 17.4N 125.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 125.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.4N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.3N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.3N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.1N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.7N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 21.6N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 23.6N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 125.1E.
21APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.
//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042006 158N1260E 115
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042012 164N1259E 120
0221042018 170N1255E 120
0221042018 170N1255E 120
0221042018 170N1255E 120
0221042100 174N1252E 120
0221042100 174N1252E 120
0221042100 174N1252E 120
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 17.4N 125.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 125.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.4N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.3N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.3N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.1N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.7N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 21.6N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 23.6N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 125.1E.
21APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 202100
WARNING 202100.
WARNING VALID 212100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 940 HPA
AT 17.2N 125.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 212100UTC AT 19.0N 124.7E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 202100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210420200002
2021042018 02W SURIGAE 030 01 325 07 SATL 010
T000 170N 1255E 120 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 155 SW QD 180 NW QD
T012 180N 1250E 120 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 189N 1248E 115 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 199N 1252E 105 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 207N 1266E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 219N 1305E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 218N 1354E 055 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 227N 1407E 045 R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 030
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 16.5N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.5N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.4N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.3N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.4N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.9N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.1N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 22.8N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 125.8E.
20APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042006 159N1260E 115
0221042006 159N1260E 115
0221042006 159N1260E 115
0221042012 165N1259E 120
0221042012 165N1259E 120
0221042012 165N1259E 120
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 17.0N 125.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 125.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.0N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.9N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.9N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.7N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 21.9N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.8N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 22.7N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 125.4E.
20APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 201500
WARNING 201500.
WARNING VALID 211500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 935 HPA
AT 16.8N 125.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211500UTC AT 18.5N 124.3E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 201500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210420134517
2021042012 02W SURIGAE 029 01 350 06 SATL 020
T000 165N 1259E 120 R064 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 105 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 175N 1253E 120 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 184N 1248E 110 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 193N 1248E 100 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 204N 1259E 090 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 219N 1296E 075 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 221N 1344E 055 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 228N 1399E 045 R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 029
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 16.5N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.5N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.4N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.3N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.4N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.9N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.1N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 22.8N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 125.8E.
20APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042006 159N1260E 115
0221042006 159N1260E 115
0221042006 159N1260E 115
0221042012 165N1259E 120
0221042012 165N1259E 120
0221042012 165N1259E 120
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 16.5N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.5N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.4N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.3N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.4N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.9N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.1N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 22.8N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 125.8E.
20APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 201400
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210420134517
2021042012 02W SURIGAE 029 01 350 06 SATL 020
T000 165N 1259E 120 R064 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 105 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 175N 1253E 120 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 184N 1248E 110 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 193N 1248E 100 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 204N 1259E 090 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 219N 1296E 075 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 221N 1344E 055 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T120 228N 1399E 045 R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 029
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 16.5N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.5N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.4N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.3N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.4N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.9N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.1N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 22.8N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 125.8E.
20APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042006 159N1260E 115
0221042006 159N1260E 115
0221042006 159N1260E 115
0221042012 165N1259E 120
0221042012 165N1259E 120
0221042012 165N1259E 120

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 201400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 16.5N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.5N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.4N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.3N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.4N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.9N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.1N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 22.8N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 125.8E.
20APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 200900
WARNING 200900.
WARNING VALID 210900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 935 HPA
AT 16.2N 126.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210900UTC AT 18.1N 124.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 200900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210420073727
2021042006 02W SURIGAE 028 01 340 05 SATL 020
T000 159N 1260E 115 R064 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 160 SE QD 165 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 168N 1255E 115 R064 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 177N 1249E 110 R064 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 185N 1245E 105 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 197N 1249E 095 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 215N 1284E 080 R064 060 NE QD 000 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 220N 1330E 060 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 227N 1386E 050 R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 028
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 15.9N 126.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 126.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.8N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.7N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.5N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.7N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.5N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.0N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.7N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 125.9E.
20APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.
//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042006 159N1260E 115
0221042006 159N1260E 115
0221042006 159N1260E 115
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 15.9N 126.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 126.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.8N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.7N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.5N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.7N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.5N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.0N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.7N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 125.9E.
20APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 200300
WARNING 200300.
WARNING VALID 210300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 935 HPA
AT 15.7N 126.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210300UTC AT 17.4N 124.6E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 200300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210420015919
2021042000 02W SURIGAE 027 01 340 03 SATL 010
T000 154N 1262E 115 R064 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 145 SE QD 145 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 162N 1258E 110 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 171N 1253E 105 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 181N 1248E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 190N 1246E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 209N 1269E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 221N 1315E 070 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 227N 1369E 055 R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 027
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 15.4N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.2N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.1N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.1N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.0N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.9N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.1N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.7N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 126.1E.
20APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.
//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
0221042000 154N1262E 115
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 15.4N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.2N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.1N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.1N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.0N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.9N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.1N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.7N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 126.1E.
20APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 192100
WARNING 192100.
WARNING VALID 202100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 925 HPA
AT 15.3N 126.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 202100UTC AT 16.8N 124.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 192100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210419201239
2021041918 02W SURIGAE 026 01 360 03 SATL 010
T000 151N 1263E 115 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 160 SE QD 155 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 158N 1260E 110 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 166N 1255E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 176N 1249E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 187N 1245E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 205N 1258E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 222N 1298E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 230N 1348E 055 R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 026
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 15.1N 126.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 126.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.8N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.6N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.6N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.7N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.5N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.2N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 23.0N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 126.2E.
19APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 309 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.
//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041900 142N1264E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041906 145N1263E 125
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041912 148N1263E 120
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
0221041918 151N1263E 115
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 15.1N 126.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 126.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.8N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.6N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.6N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.7N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.5N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.2N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 23.0N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 126.2E.
19APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 309 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 191500
WARNING 191500.
WARNING VALID 201500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 915 HPA
AT 15.0N 126.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201500UTC AT 16.5N 125.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 191500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210419131757
2021041912 02W SURIGAE 025 01 335 02 SATL 015
T000 148N 1262E 120 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 180 SE QD 155 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 153N 1260E 110 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 162N 1255E 105 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 171N 1249E 100 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 179N 1244E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 195N 1247E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 216N 1279E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 225N 1329E 050 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 025
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 14.8N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.3N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.2N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.1N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.9N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.5N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.6N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.5N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 126.2E.
19APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 302 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z
IS 52 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041706 113N1302E 140
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041712 120N1292E 155
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041718 126N1284E 165
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041800 132N1277E 150
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041806 135N1272E 135
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041812 136N1268E 125
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041818 139N1266E 120
0221041900 142N1265E 125
0221041900 142N1265E 125
0221041900 142N1265E 125
0221041906 146N1263E 125
0221041906 146N1263E 125
0221041906 146N1263E 125
0221041912 148N1262E 120
0221041912 148N1262E 120
0221041912 148N1262E 120
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 14.8N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.3N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.2N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.1N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.9N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.5N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.6N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.5N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 126.2E.
19APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 302 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z
IS 52 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 190900
WARNING 190900.
WARNING VALID 200900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 905 HPA
AT 14.7N 126.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200900UTC AT 16.2N 125.7E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 190300
WARNING 190300.
WARNING VALID 200300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 900 HPA
AT 14.3N 126.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200300UTC AT 15.7N 125.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 182100
WARNING 182100.
WARNING VALID 192100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 900 HPA
AT 14.1N 126.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 192100UTC AT 15.5N 126.1E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 181500
WARNING 181500.
WARNING VALID 191500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 900 HPA
AT 13.7N 126.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191500UTC AT 15.2N 126.4E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 180900
WARNING 180900.
WARNING VALID 190900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 900 HPA
AT 13.5N 126.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190900UTC AT 15.0N 126.6E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 180300
WARNING 180300.
WARNING VALID 190300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 895 HPA
AT 13.4N 127.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 120 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190300UTC AT 14.7N 126.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 180000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 18
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 180000UTC 13.1N 127.8E
MOVEMENT NW 7KT
PRES/VMAX 900HPA 115KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 181200UTC 13.5N 127.2E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
24HR
POSITION 190000UTC 14.1N 126.6E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
36HR
POSITION 191200UTC 14.9N 126.1E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
48HR
POSITION 200000UTC 15.9N 125.8E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
72HR
POSITION 210000UTC 17.7N 125.6E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
96HR
POSITION 220000UTC 19.7N 126.1E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
120HR
POSITION 230000UTC 21.5N 128.6E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 180000
WARNING 180000.
WARNING VALID 190000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 895 HPA
AT 13.1N 127.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 120 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 14.3N 126.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 15.7N 126.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 17.5N 125.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 19.4N 126.0E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 21.6N 129.2E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 172100
WARNING 172100.
WARNING VALID 182100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 895 HPA
AT 13.0N 128.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 120 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 182100UTC AT 14.3N 126.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
895 HPA, MAX WINDS 120 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 171800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 17
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 171800UTC 12.6N 128.5E
MOVEMENT NW 11KT
PRES/VMAX 900HPA 115KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 180600UTC 13.2N 127.6E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 900HPA 115KT
24HR
POSITION 181800UTC 13.8N 126.9E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
36HR
POSITION 190600UTC 14.4N 126.4E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
48HR
POSITION 191800UTC 15.5N 125.9E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
72HR
POSITION 201800UTC 17.2N 125.6E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
96HR
POSITION 211800UTC 19.2N 125.8E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
120HR
POSITION 221800UTC 21.1N 127.5E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 171800
WARNING 171800.
WARNING VALID 181800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 895 HPA
AT 12.6N 128.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 120 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 14.1N 126.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
895 HPA, MAX WINDS 120 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 15.4N 126.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 17.2N 125.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 19.1N 125.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 21.1N 127.9E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 171500
WARNING 171500.
WARNING VALID 181500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 905 HPA
AT 12.2N 128.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181500UTC AT 13.8N 126.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 171200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 16
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 171200UTC 12.0N 129.2E
MOVEMENT NW 14KT
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 180000UTC 12.8N 128.0E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
24HR
POSITION 181200UTC 13.5N 127.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
36HR
POSITION 190000UTC 14.1N 126.4E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
48HR
POSITION 191200UTC 14.9N 126.0E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
72HR
POSITION 201200UTC 16.4N 125.7E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
96HR
POSITION 211200UTC 18.3N 125.5E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
120HR
POSITION 221200UTC 20.3N 126.2E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 905 HPA
AT 12.1N 129.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 13.7N 126.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 15.1N 126.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 16.6N 126.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 18.5N 125.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 20.6N 126.8E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 170900
WARNING 170900.
WARNING VALID 180900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 925 HPA
AT 11.7N 129.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180900UTC AT 13.5N 126.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 170600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 15
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 170600UTC 11.4N 130.2E
MOVEMENT NW 12KT
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 171800UTC 12.3N 128.8E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
24HR
POSITION 180600UTC 13.2N 127.3E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
36HR
POSITION 181800UTC 13.7N 126.7E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
48HR
POSITION 190600UTC 14.5N 126.2E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
72HR
POSITION 200600UTC 15.8N 125.8E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
96HR
POSITION 210600UTC 17.7N 125.5E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
120HR
POSITION 220600UTC 20.1N 126.3E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 170600
WARNING 170600.
WARNING VALID 180600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 925 HPA
AT 11.4N 130.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 13.5N 127.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 14.8N 126.6E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 16.2N 126.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 17.9N 125.7E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 19.9N 126.2E WITH 320 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 170300
WARNING 170300.
WARNING VALID 180300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 935 HPA
AT 11.0N 130.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180300UTC AT 13.0N 127.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 170300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210417022041
2021041700 02W SURIGAE 015 01 305 12 SATL 010
T000 107N 1311E 120 R064 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 145 SE QD 125 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 119N 1293E 130 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 128N 1277E 130 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 136N 1268E 125 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 143N 1264E 120 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 158N 1259E 110 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 174N 1255E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 190N 1257E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 015
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 10.7N 131.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 131.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 11.9N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.8N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 13.6N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.3N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.8N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.4N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.0N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 130.6E.
17APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264 NM NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL, PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
0221041700 107N1311E 120
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 10.7N 131.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 131.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 11.9N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.8N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 13.6N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.3N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.8N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.4N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.0N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 130.6E.
17APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264 NM NORTHWEST
OF KAYANGEL, PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 34 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 170000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 170000UTC 10.7N 131.2E
MOVEMENT WNW 13KT
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 171200UTC 11.6N 129.5E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
24HR
POSITION 180000UTC 12.6N 128.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
36HR
POSITION 181200UTC 13.3N 127.0E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
48HR
POSITION 190000UTC 13.8N 126.3E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
72HR
POSITION 200000UTC 15.4N 125.9E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
96HR
POSITION 210000UTC 16.9N 125.7E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
120HR
POSITION 220000UTC 17.8N 125.6E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 170000
WARNING 170000.
WARNING VALID 180000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 935 HPA
AT 10.7N 131.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 230 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 12.9N 127.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 14.3N 126.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 15.7N 126.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 17.4N 126.4E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 19.1N 126.0E WITH 320 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 162100
WARNING 162100.
WARNING VALID 172100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 950 HPA
AT 10.3N 131.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 45 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 230 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 172100UTC AT 12.6N 128.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 10.3N 131.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM SOUTH 45NM NORTH
30KT 350NM SOUTH 230NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 172100UTC 12.6N 128.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 181800UTC 13.8N 126.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
69HF 191800UTC 15.1N 126.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
93HF 201800UTC 16.6N 126.2E 230NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
117HF 211800UTC 18.6N 125.4E 320NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 10.3N 131.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM SOUTH 45NM NORTH
30KT 350NM SOUTH 230NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 172100UTC 12.6N 128.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 181800UTC 13.8N 126.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
69HF 191800UTC 15.1N 126.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 162100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210416202722
2021041618 02W SURIGAE 014 01 300 09 SATL 015
T000 100N 1321E 115 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 112N 1303E 120 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 122N 1286E 125 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 131N 1273E 125 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 138N 1266E 120 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 151N 1261E 115 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 168N 1259E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 186N 1260E 090 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 014
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 10.0N 132.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N 132.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 11.2N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.2N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.1N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 13.8N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.1N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.8N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.6N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 131.6E.
16APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041612 95N1329E 95
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
0221041618 100N1321E 115
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 10.0N 132.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N 132.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 11.2N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.2N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.1N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 13.8N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.1N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.8N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.6N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 131.6E.
16APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM
NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND
172100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 10.0N, 132.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
APPEARANCE OF AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY
AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 161800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 161800UTC 10.0N 132.2E
MOVEMENT WNW 10KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 170600UTC 10.9N 130.4E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
24HR
POSITION 171800UTC 11.9N 128.7E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
36HR
POSITION 180600UTC 12.8N 127.4E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
48HR
POSITION 181800UTC 13.5N 126.6E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
72HR
POSITION 191800UTC 15.1N 126.1E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
96HR
POSITION 201800UTC 16.6N 125.8E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
120HR
POSITION 211800UTC 17.6N 125.8E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 10.0N 132.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM SOUTH 45NM NORTH
30KT 350NM SOUTH 230NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 12.4N 128.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 181800UTC 13.8N 126.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 191800UTC 15.1N 126.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
96HF 201800UTC 16.6N 126.2E 230NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
120HF 211800UTC 18.6N 125.4E 320NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 10.0N 132.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM SOUTH 45NM NORTH
30KT 350NM SOUTH 230NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 12.4N 128.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 181800UTC 13.8N 126.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 191800UTC 15.1N 126.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 161800
WARNING 161800.
WARNING VALID 171800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 950 HPA
AT 10.0N 132.1E CAROLINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 45 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 230 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 12.4N 128.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 13.8N 126.8E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 15.1N 126.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 16.6N 126.2E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 18.6N 125.4E WITH 320 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 161500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 09.7N 132.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM SOUTH 45NM NORTH
30KT 350NM SOUTH 230NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 171500UTC 11.9N 129.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 181200UTC 13.4N 127.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 191200UTC 14.7N 126.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
93HF 201200UTC 16.2N 126.6E 230NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
117HF 211200UTC 17.9N 125.4E 320NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 161500
WARNING 161500.
WARNING VALID 171500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 965 HPA
AT 09.7N 132.7E CAROLINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 45 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 230 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171500UTC AT 11.9N 129.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 161500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 09.7N 132.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM SOUTH 45NM NORTH
30KT 350NM SOUTH 230NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 171500UTC 11.9N 129.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 181200UTC 13.4N 127.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 191200UTC 14.7N 126.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 161500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210416135301
2021041612 02W SURIGAE 013 01 290 08 SATL 025
T000 094N 1329E 090 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 075 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 135 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 103N 1311E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 114N 1293E 110 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 123N 1278E 115 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 130N 1269E 120 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 143N 1265E 115 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 158N 1263E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 179N 1265E 090 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 013
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 9.4N 132.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4N 132.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 10.3N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 11.4N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.3N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 13.0N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 14.3N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.8N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.9N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 9.6N 132.5E.
16APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 132 NM
NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z,
170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041606 91N1337E 80
0221041612 94N1329E 90
0221041612 94N1329E 90
0221041612 94N1329E 90
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 9.4N 132.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4N 132.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 10.3N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 11.4N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.3N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 13.0N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 14.3N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.8N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.9N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 9.6N 132.5E.
16APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 132 NM
NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z,
170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 9.4N, 133.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EXPANSION OF A CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 161200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 161200UTC 9.5N 133.1E
MOVEMENT WNW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 170000UTC 10.4N 131.3E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
24HR
POSITION 171200UTC 11.5N 129.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
36HR
POSITION 180000UTC 12.4N 127.9E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
48HR
POSITION 181200UTC 13.2N 127.0E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
72HR
POSITION 191200UTC 14.7N 126.3E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
96HR
POSITION 201200UTC 16.2N 126.2E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
120HR
POSITION 211200UTC 17.4N 126.1E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 09.4N 133.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 300NM SOUTH 210NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 11.7N 129.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 181200UTC 13.4N 127.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 191200UTC 14.7N 126.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 201200UTC 16.2N 126.6E 230NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
120HF 211200UTC 17.9N 125.4E 320NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 09.4N 133.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 300NM SOUTH 210NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 11.7N 129.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 181200UTC 13.4N 127.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 191200UTC 14.7N 126.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 161200
WARNING 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 965 HPA
AT 09.4N 133.1E CAROLINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 11.7N 129.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 13.4N 127.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 14.7N 126.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 16.2N 126.6E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 17.9N 125.4E WITH 320 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 160900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160900UTC 09.2N 133.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 300NM SOUTH 210NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 170900UTC 11.3N 130.1E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 180600UTC 13.1N 127.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 190600UTC 14.4N 127.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
93HF 200600UTC 16.0N 127.4E 170NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
117HF 210600UTC 17.7N 127.5E 240NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 160900
WARNING 160900.
WARNING VALID 170900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 975 HPA
AT 09.2N 133.5E CAROLINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170900UTC AT 11.3N 130.1E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 160900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160900UTC 09.2N 133.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 300NM SOUTH 210NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 170900UTC 11.3N 130.1E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 180600UTC 13.1N 127.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 190600UTC 14.4N 127.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 160900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210416081434
2021041606 02W SURIGAE 012 01 290 09 SATL 025
T000 092N 1337E 080 R064 015 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 100N 1319E 090 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 110N 1302E 100 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 121N 1286E 110 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 130N 1276E 120 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 143N 1268E 115 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 159N 1271E 100 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 176N 1271E 090 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 012
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 9.2N 133.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2N 133.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 10.0N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 11.0N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.1N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.0N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 14.3N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.9N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.6N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 9.4N 133.2E.
16APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 89 NM
NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z,
162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.
//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041600 89N1346E 75
0221041606 92N1337E 80
0221041606 92N1337E 80
0221041606 92N1337E 80
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 9.2N 133.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2N 133.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 10.0N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 11.0N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.1N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.0N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 14.3N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.9N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.6N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 9.4N 133.2E.
16APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 89 NM
NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z,
162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 9.1N, 133.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED
FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA
ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. METOP-A/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 160600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 160600UTC 9.3N 133.8E
MOVEMENT WNW 8KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 161800UTC 9.9N 132.1E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
24HR
POSITION 170600UTC 10.9N 130.4E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
36HR
POSITION 171800UTC 12.0N 128.7E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
48HR
POSITION 180600UTC 12.9N 127.4E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
72HR
POSITION 190600UTC 14.3N 126.4E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
96HR
POSITION 200600UTC 16.0N 126.6E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
120HR
POSITION 210600UTC 17.4N 126.9E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 09.1N 133.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 300NM SOUTH 210NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 11.1N 130.6E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 180600UTC 13.1N 127.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 190600UTC 14.4N 127.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 200600UTC 16.0N 127.4E 170NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
120HF 210600UTC 17.7N 127.5E 240NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 09.1N 133.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 300NM SOUTH 210NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 11.1N 130.6E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 180600UTC 13.1N 127.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 190600UTC 14.4N 127.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 160600
WARNING 160600.
WARNING VALID 170600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 975 HPA
AT 09.1N 133.8E CAROLINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 11.1N 130.6E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 13.1N 127.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 14.4N 127.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 16.0N 127.4E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 17.7N 127.5E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 160300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160300UTC 09.0N 134.2E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 300NM SOUTH 210NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 170300UTC 10.7N 130.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 180000UTC 12.6N 128.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 190000UTC 14.0N 126.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
93HF 200000UTC 15.5N 127.6E 170NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
117HF 210000UTC 17.1N 128.0E 240NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 160300
WARNING 160300.
WARNING VALID 170300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 975 HPA
AT 09.0N 134.2E CAROLINES MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170300UTC AT 10.7N 130.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 160300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160300UTC 09.0N 134.2E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 300NM SOUTH 210NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 170300UTC 10.7N 130.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 180000UTC 12.6N 128.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 190000UTC 14.0N 126.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 160300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210416013204
2021041600 02W SURIGAE 011 01 290 06 SATL 045
T000 088N 1346E 075 R064 015 NE QD 050 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 120 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 094N 1331E 085 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 155 SE QD 145 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 103N 1314E 095 R064 020 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 155 SE QD 155 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 113N 1295E 105 R064 020 NE QD 045 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 175 SE QD 155 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 120N 1287E 115 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 138N 1272E 120 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 156N 1273E 110 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 176N 1281E 100 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 011
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 8.8N 134.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N 134.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 9.4N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 10.3N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 11.3N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.0N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 13.8N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.6N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.6N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 8.9N 134.2E.
16APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 42 NM NORTH
OF KAYANGEL, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.
//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041600 88N1346E 75
0221041600 88N1346E 75
0221041600 88N1346E 75
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 8.8N 134.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N 134.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 9.4N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 10.3N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 11.3N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.0N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 13.8N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.6N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.6N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 8.9N 134.2E.
16APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 42 NM NORTH
OF KAYANGEL, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 8.7N, 134.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND
SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW
DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE MOVEMENT. NOAA-19/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 160000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 160000UTC 8.9N 134.7E
MOVEMENT W 12KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 161200UTC 9.6N 133.1E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
24HR
POSITION 170000UTC 10.3N 131.4E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
36HR
POSITION 171200UTC 11.4N 129.8E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 180000UTC 12.3N 128.3E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
72HR
POSITION 190000UTC 14.0N 126.5E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
96HR
POSITION 200000UTC 15.6N 126.5E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
120HR
POSITION 210000UTC 17.1N 126.8E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 08.7N 134.6E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 10.6N 131.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 180000UTC 12.6N 128.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 190000UTC 14.0N 126.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 200000UTC 15.5N 127.6E 170NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
120HF 210000UTC 17.1N 128.0E 240NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 08.7N 134.6E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 10.6N 131.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 180000UTC 12.6N 128.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 190000UTC 14.0N 126.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 160000
WARNING 160000.
WARNING VALID 170000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2102 SURIGAE (2102) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 975
HPA
AT 08.7N 134.6E CAROLINES MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 10.6N 131.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 12.6N 128.1E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 14.0N 126.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 15.5N 127.6E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 17.1N 128.0E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 152100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 152100UTC 08.5N 135.3E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 162100UTC 10.4N 131.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 171800UTC 11.9N 128.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 181800UTC 13.8N 126.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
93HF 191800UTC 15.3N 127.0E 170NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
117HF 201800UTC 17.0N 127.2E 240NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 152100
WARNING 152100.
WARNING VALID 162100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 980 HPA
AT 08.5N 135.3E CAROLINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 162100UTC AT 10.4N 131.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 152100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 152100UTC 08.5N 135.3E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 162100UTC 10.4N 131.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 171800UTC 11.9N 128.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 181800UTC 13.8N 126.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 152100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210415193339
2021041518 02W SURIGAE 010 01 250 05 SATL 045
T000 086N 1352E 065 R064 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 135 SE QD 125 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 091N 1337E 075 R064 005 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 097N 1321E 090 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 106N 1305E 100 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 180 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 114N 1290E 105 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 135N 1271E 120 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 200 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 151N 1273E 110 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 170N 1278E 100 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 010
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 010
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 8.6N 135.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.6N 135.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 9.1N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 9.7N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 10.6N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 11.4N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 13.5N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.1N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.0N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 8.7N 134.8E.
15APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 42 NM
NORTHEAST OF KAYANGEL, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041512 88N1357E 60
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
0221041518 86N1352E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 010
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 8.6N 135.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.6N 135.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 9.1N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 9.7N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 10.6N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 11.4N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 13.5N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.1N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.0N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 8.7N 134.8E.
15APR21. TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 42 NM
NORTHEAST OF KAYANGEL, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z
IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 8.6N, 135.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF
A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 151800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 151800UTC 8.9N 135.4E
MOVEMENT W 2KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 160600UTC 9.6N 134.0E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
24HR
POSITION 161800UTC 10.2N 132.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
36HR
POSITION 170600UTC 11.0N 130.9E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 171800UTC 12.0N 129.3E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
72HR
POSITION 181800UTC 13.9N 126.8E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
96HR
POSITION 191800UTC 15.6N 126.4E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
120HR
POSITION 201800UTC 16.9N 126.8E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 08.6N 135.4E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 161800UTC 10.0N 132.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 171800UTC 11.9N 128.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 181800UTC 13.8N 126.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 191800UTC 15.3N 127.0E 170NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
120HF 201800UTC 17.0N 127.2E 240NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 08.6N 135.4E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 161800UTC 10.0N 132.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 171800UTC 11.9N 128.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 181800UTC 13.8N 126.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 151800
WARNING 151800.
WARNING VALID 161800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 980 HPA
AT 08.6N 135.4E CAROLINES MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 10.0N 132.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 11.9N 128.7E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 13.8N 126.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 15.3N 127.0E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 17.0N 127.2E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 151500
WARNING 151500.
WARNING VALID 161500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 990 HPA
AT 08.6N 135.5E CAROLINES MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161500UTC AT 09.9N 132.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 151500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151500UTC 08.6N 135.5E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 161500UTC 09.9N 132.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 171200UTC 11.3N 129.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 181200UTC 13.3N 127.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
93HF 191200UTC 14.9N 126.8E 170NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
117HF 201200UTC 16.8N 127.5E 240NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 151500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151500UTC 08.6N 135.5E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 161500UTC 09.9N 132.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 171200UTC 11.3N 129.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 181200UTC 13.3N 127.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 151500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210415134351
2021041512 02W SURIGAE 009 01 280 06 SATL 040
T000 090N 1357E 055 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 135 SE QD 130 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 093N 1345E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 098N 1329E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 106N 1311E 080 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 116N 1294E 095 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 136N 1272E 115 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 151N 1268E 110 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 171N 1274E 100 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 9.0N 135.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.0N 135.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 9.3N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 9.8N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 10.6N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 11.6N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 13.6N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.1N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.1N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 9.1N 135.4E.
15APR21. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
80 NM NORTHEAST OF KAYANGEL, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z,
160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.
//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041512 90N1357E 55
0221041512 90N1357E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 9.0N 135.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.0N 135.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 9.3N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 9.8N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 10.6N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 11.6N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 13.6N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.1N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.1N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 9.1N 135.4E.
15APR21. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
80 NM NORTHEAST OF KAYANGEL, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z,
160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 8.6N, 135.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE
LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 151200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 151200UTC 8.9N 135.8E
MOVEMENT W 2KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 160000UTC 9.5N 134.7E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
24HR
POSITION 161200UTC 10.1N 133.3E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
36HR
POSITION 170000UTC 10.8N 131.7E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
48HR
POSITION 171200UTC 11.8N 129.9E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
72HR
POSITION 181200UTC 13.7N 127.1E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
96HR
POSITION 191200UTC 15.4N 126.4E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
120HR
POSITION 201200UTC 16.7N 126.7E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 08.6N 135.9E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 09.7N 132.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 171200UTC 11.3N 129.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 181200UTC 13.3N 127.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 191200UTC 14.9N 126.8E 170NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
120HF 201200UTC 16.8N 127.5E 240NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 08.6N 135.9E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 09.7N 132.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 171200UTC 11.3N 129.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 181200UTC 13.3N 127.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 151200
WARNING 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 990 HPA
AT 08.6N 135.9E CAROLINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 09.7N 132.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 11.3N 129.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 13.3N 127.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 14.9N 126.8E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 16.8N 127.5E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 150900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150900UTC 08.7N 135.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 160900UTC 09.6N 133.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 170600UTC 11.2N 130.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 180600UTC 13.3N 127.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
93HF 190600UTC 14.8N 127.0E 170NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
117HF 200600UTC 16.5N 127.6E 240NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 150900
WARNING 150900.
WARNING VALID 160900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 990 HPA
AT 08.7N 135.9E CAROLINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160900UTC AT 09.6N 133.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 150900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150900UTC 08.7N 135.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 160900UTC 09.6N 133.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 170600UTC 11.2N 130.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 180600UTC 13.3N 127.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 150900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210415080421
2021041506 02W SURIGAE 008 01 270 03 SATL 030
T000 089N 1363E 050 R050 005 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 130 SE QD 125 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 091N 1353E 055 R050 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 095N 1339E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 101N 1321E 075 R064 010 NE QD 005 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 111N 1302E 090 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 132N 1274E 115 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 149N 1267E 115 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 170N 1273E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 8.9N 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9N 136.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 9.1N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 9.5N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 10.1N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 11.1N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.2N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 14.9N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.0N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 136.0E.
15APR21. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
106 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KAYANGEL, PALAU HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 150600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z
AND 160900Z.
//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 88N1371E 35
0221041418 89N1368E 45
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041500 89N1366E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
0221041506 89N1363E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 8.9N 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9N 136.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 9.1N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 9.5N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 10.1N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 11.1N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.2N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 14.9N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.0N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 136.0E.
15APR21. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
106 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KAYANGEL, PALAU HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 150600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z
AND 160900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 8.7N, 136.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 150600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 150600UTC 8.8N 136.2E
MOVEMENT N 4KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 151800UTC 9.2N 135.3E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
24HR
POSITION 160600UTC 9.8N 134.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
36HR
POSITION 161800UTC 10.5N 132.5E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
48HR
POSITION 170600UTC 11.4N 130.7E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
72HR
POSITION 180600UTC 13.2N 127.6E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
96HR
POSITION 190600UTC 15.0N 126.4E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
120HR
POSITION 200600UTC 16.5N 126.5E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 08.7N 136.1E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 09.6N 133.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 170600UTC 11.2N 130.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 180600UTC 13.3N 127.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 190600UTC 14.8N 127.0E 170NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
120HF 200600UTC 16.5N 127.6E 240NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 08.7N 136.1E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 09.6N 133.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 170600UTC 11.2N 130.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 180600UTC 13.3N 127.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 150600
WARNING 150600.
WARNING VALID 160600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 990 HPA
AT 08.7N 136.1E CAROLINES MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 09.6N 133.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 11.2N 130.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 13.3N 127.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 14.8N 127.0E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 16.5N 127.6E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 150300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 007A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 007A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 9.0N 136.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.0N 136.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 9.3N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 9.7N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 10.2N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 11.0N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.1N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.7N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.4N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 9.1N 136.2E.
15APR21. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED 064 KT WINDS FOR 160000Z AND
161200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 150300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150300UTC 08.5N 136.3E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 160300UTC 09.3N 134.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 170000UTC 10.8N 131.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 180000UTC 12.9N 127.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
93HF 190000UTC 14.5N 127.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
117HF 200000UTC 15.8N 127.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 150300
WARNING 150300.
WARNING VALID 160300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 992 HPA
AT 08.5N 136.3E CAROLINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160300UTC AT 09.3N 134.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 150300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150300UTC 08.5N 136.3E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 160300UTC 09.3N 134.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 170000UTC 10.8N 131.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 180000UTC 12.9N 127.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 150300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210415014538
2021041500 02W SURIGAE 007 01 285 04 SATL 040
T000 090N 1364E 050 R050 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 125 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 093N 1356E 060 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 097N 1344E 065 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 102N 1329E 070 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 110N 1312E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 131N 1281E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 147N 1274E 115 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 164N 1279E 110 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 8.9N 137.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9N 137.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 9.2N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 9.4N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 9.7N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 10.3N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.1N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.0N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.0N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 136.8E.
14APR21. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 74 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 89N1370E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 9.0N 136.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.0N 136.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 9.3N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 9.7N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 10.2N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 11.0N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.1N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.7N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.4N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 9.1N 136.2E.
15APR21. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
150000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND
160300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 8.6N, 136.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 150000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 150000UTC 8.6N 136.5E
MOVEMENT W 2KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 151200UTC 9.0N 135.8E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 160000UTC 9.5N 134.7E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
36HR
POSITION 161200UTC 10.1N 133.3E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
48HR
POSITION 170000UTC 11.0N 131.5E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 180000UTC 12.8N 128.1E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
96HR
POSITION 190000UTC 14.5N 126.6E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
120HR
POSITION 200000UTC 16.2N 126.5E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 08.6N 136.5E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 09.4N 134.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 170000UTC 10.8N 131.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 180000UTC 12.9N 127.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 190000UTC 14.5N 127.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
120HF 200000UTC 15.8N 127.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 08.6N 136.5E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 09.4N 134.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 170000UTC 10.8N 131.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 180000UTC 12.9N 127.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 150000
WARNING 150000.
WARNING VALID 160000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2102 SURIGAE (2102) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL
STORM 992 HPA
AT 08.6N 136.5E CAROLINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 09.4N 134.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 10.8N 131.1E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 12.9N 127.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 14.5N 127.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 15.8N 127.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 08.6N 136.5E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 152100UTC 09.2N 134.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 161800UTC 10.2N 132.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 171800UTC 12.3N 129.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 181800UTC 13.8N 127.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
117HF 191800UTC 15.4N 127.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 142100
WARNING 142100.
WARNING VALID 152100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 994 HPA
AT 08.6N 136.5E CAROLINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 152100UTC AT 09.2N 134.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 08.6N 136.5E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 152100UTC 09.2N 134.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 161800UTC 10.2N 132.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 171800UTC 12.3N 129.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 142100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210414195407
2021041418 02W SURIGAE 006 01 290 03 SATL 030
T000 089N 1368E 045 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 110 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 091N 1362E 050 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 110 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 094N 1351E 055 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 120 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 098N 1337E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 110 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 105N 1322E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 124N 1292E 095 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 144N 1281E 115 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 162N 1283E 110 R064 025 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 8.9N 137.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9N 137.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 9.2N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 9.4N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 9.7N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 10.3N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.1N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.0N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.0N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 136.8E.
14APR21. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 74 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 89N1370E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 8.9N 136.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9N 136.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 9.1N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 9.4N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 9.8N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 10.5N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.4N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.4N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.2N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 136.6E.
14APR21. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND
152100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 8.6N, 136.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION
OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DEVELOP RAPIDLY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 141800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 141800UTC 8.6N 136.6E
MOVEMENT WSW 3KT
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 150600UTC 8.8N 136.2E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 151800UTC 9.2N 135.3E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 160600UTC 9.8N 134.0E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
48HR
POSITION 161800UTC 10.6N 132.3E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
72HR
POSITION 171800UTC 12.4N 128.8E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
96HR
POSITION 181800UTC 14.0N 126.8E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
120HR
POSITION 191800UTC 15.9N 126.5E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 08.6N 136.6E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 09.0N 135.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 161800UTC 10.2N 132.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 171800UTC 12.3N 129.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 181800UTC 13.8N 127.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
120HF 191800UTC 15.4N 127.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 08.6N 136.6E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 09.0N 135.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 161800UTC 10.2N 132.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 171800UTC 12.3N 129.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 141800
WARNING 141800.
WARNING VALID 151800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 994 HPA
AT 08.6N 136.6E CAROLINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 09.0N 135.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 10.2N 132.1E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 12.3N 129.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 13.8N 127.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 15.4N 127.5E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 08.7N 136.4E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTHWEST 180NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 151500UTC 09.1N 134.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 161200UTC 09.8N 133.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 171200UTC 11.9N 129.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 181200UTC 13.9N 127.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
117HF 191200UTC 15.6N 127.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 141500
WARNING 141500.
WARNING VALID 151500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 998 HPA
AT 08.7N 136.4E CAROLINES MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151500UTC AT 09.1N 134.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 08.7N 136.4E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTHWEST 180NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 151500UTC 09.1N 134.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 161200UTC 09.8N 133.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 171200UTC 11.9N 129.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 8.9N 137.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9N 137.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 9.2N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 9.4N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 9.7N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 10.3N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.1N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.0N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.0N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 136.8E.
14APR21. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 74 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 141500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210414131003
2021041412 02W SURIGAE 005 01 290 03 SATL SYNP 015
T000 089N 1370E 035 R034 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 092N 1364E 045 R034 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 094N 1356E 050 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 100 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 097N 1344E 060 R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 103N 1329E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 121N 1296E 095 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 140N 1279E 120 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 160N 1284E 110 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 8.9N 137.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9N 137.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 9.2N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 9.4N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 9.7N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 10.3N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.1N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.0N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.0N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 136.8E.
14APR21. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 74 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 88N1373E 35
0221041412 89N1370E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 8.7N, 136.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP RAPIDLY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 141200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 141200UTC 8.7N 136.9E
MOVEMENT W 2KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 150000UTC 8.9N 136.4E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 151200UTC 9.2N 135.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 160000UTC 9.5N 134.7E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
48HR
POSITION 161200UTC 10.2N 133.0E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
72HR
POSITION 171200UTC 11.9N 129.4E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
96HR
POSITION 181200UTC 13.6N 127.1E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
120HR
POSITION 191200UTC 15.4N 126.1E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 08.7N 136.7E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTHWEST 180NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 09.1N 135.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 161200UTC 09.8N 133.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 171200UTC 11.9N 129.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 181200UTC 13.9N 127.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
120HF 191200UTC 15.6N 127.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 08.7N 136.7E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTHWEST 180NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 09.1N 135.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 161200UTC 09.8N 133.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 171200UTC 11.9N 129.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 141200
WARNING 141200.
WARNING VALID 151200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 998 HPA
AT 08.7N 136.7E CAROLINES MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 09.1N 135.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 09.8N 133.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 11.9N 129.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 13.9N 127.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 15.6N 127.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 08.6N 136.9E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTHWEST 180NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 150900UTC 09.1N 135.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 160600UTC 09.7N 134.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 170600UTC 11.4N 131.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 180600UTC 13.5N 128.8E 170NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
117HF 190600UTC 15.1N 128.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 140900
WARNING 140900.
WARNING VALID 150900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 998 HPA
AT 08.6N 136.9E CAROLINES MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 09.1N 135.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 08.6N 136.9E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTHWEST 180NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 150900UTC 09.1N 135.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 160600UTC 09.7N 134.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 170600UTC 11.4N 131.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 140900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210414062721
2021041406 02W SURIGAE 004 01 325 05 SATL SYNP 025
T000 089N 1374E 035 R034 045 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 091N 1369E 045 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 095N 1361E 060 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 097N 1351E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 101N 1338E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 118N 1306E 085 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 139N 1282E 110 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 160N 1283E 120 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 8.9N 137.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9N 137.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 9.1N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 9.5N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 9.7N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 10.1N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 11.8N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.9N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.0N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 137.3E.
14APR21. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
55 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
0221041406 89N1374E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 8.9N 137.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9N 137.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 9.1N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 9.5N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 9.7N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 10.1N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 11.8N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.9N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.0N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 137.3E.
14APR21. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
55 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 8.5N, 136.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH DUE
TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 140600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 140600UTC 8.6N 137.0E
MOVEMENT NNW 6KT
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 141800UTC 8.8N 136.7E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
24HR
POSITION 150600UTC 9.0N 136.1E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 151800UTC 9.3N 135.3E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
48HR
POSITION 160600UTC 9.9N 133.8E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
72HR
POSITION 170600UTC 11.4N 130.7E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
96HR
POSITION 180600UTC 12.9N 128.2E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
120HR
POSITION 190600UTC 15.0N 126.4E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 08.5N 136.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTHWEST 180NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 09.1N 136.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 160600UTC 09.7N 134.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 170600UTC 11.4N 131.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 180600UTC 13.5N 128.8E 170NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
120HF 190600UTC 15.1N 128.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 08.5N 136.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTHWEST 180NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 09.1N 136.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 160600UTC 09.7N 134.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 170600UTC 11.4N 131.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 140600
WARNING 140600.
WARNING VALID 150600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 998 HPA
AT 08.5N 136.9E CAROLINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 09.1N 136.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 09.7N 134.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 11.4N 131.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 13.5N 128.8E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 15.1N 128.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 08.3N 136.9E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTHWEST 180NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 150300UTC 08.8N 136.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 160000UTC 09.2N 135.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 170000UTC 10.7N 132.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 180000UTC 12.9N 129.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 190000UTC 14.5N 128.3E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 08.3N 136.9E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTHWEST 180NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 150300UTC 08.8N 136.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 160000UTC 09.2N 135.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 170000UTC 10.7N 132.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 8.5N 137.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.5N 137.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 8.9N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 9.1N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 9.4N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 9.7N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 11.1N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.2N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.9N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 8.6N 137.7E.
14APR21. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 140300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210414012901
2021041400 02W SURIGAE 003 01 340 03 SATL 040
T000 085N 1377E 035 R034 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 100 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 089N 1375E 045 R034 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 091N 1368E 060 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 094N 1360E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 097N 1348E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 111N 1317E 085 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 132N 1288E 100 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 100 SE QD 170 SW QD 180 NW QD
T120 149N 1282E 115 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 105 SE QD 170 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 8.5N 137.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.5N 137.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 8.9N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 9.1N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 9.4N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 9.7N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 11.1N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.2N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.9N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 8.6N 137.7E.
14APR21. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.
//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1378E 25
0221041318 82N1378E 30
0221041400 85N1377E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 8.2N, 137.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. DMSP-F17/SSMIS
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 140000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 140000UTC 8.1N 137.1E
MOVEMENT WNW 6KT
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 141200UTC 8.5N 136.8E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
24HR
POSITION 150000UTC 8.8N 136.4E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
36HR
POSITION 151200UTC 9.1N 135.8E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 160000UTC 9.6N 134.5E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
72HR
POSITION 170000UTC 10.9N 131.6E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 180000UTC 12.5N 129.1E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
120HR
POSITION 190000UTC 14.5N 127.5E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 08.2N 137.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTHWEST 180NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 08.7N 137.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 160000UTC 09.2N 135.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 170000UTC 10.7N 132.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 180000UTC 12.9N 129.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 190000UTC 14.5N 128.3E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 08.2N 137.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTHWEST 180NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 08.7N 137.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 160000UTC 09.2N 135.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 170000UTC 10.7N 132.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 140000
WARNING 140000.
WARNING VALID 150000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2102 SURIGAE (2102) 1000 HPA
AT 08.2N 137.0E CAROLINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 08.7N 137.0E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 09.2N 135.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 10.7N 132.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 12.9N 129.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 14.5N 128.3E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 08.0N 137.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTHWEST 180NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 08.9N 137.6E 65NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 151800UTC 09.2N 136.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 161800UTC 10.1N 133.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 171800UTC 12.3N 130.0E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 181800UTC 13.9N 129.0E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 08.0N 137.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTHWEST 180NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 08.9N 137.6E 65NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 151800UTC 09.2N 136.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 161800UTC 10.1N 133.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 8.1N 137.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.1N 137.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 8.6N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 9.0N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 9.2N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 9.4N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 10.5N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.6N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.6N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 8.2N 137.1E.
13APR21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
27 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NGULU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
131800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND
142100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 132100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210413193922
2021041318 02W SURIGAE 002 01 315 03 SATL 040
T000 081N 1371E 030
T012 086N 1371E 045 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 090N 1367E 050 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 092N 1360E 055 R050 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 094N 1350E 060 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 105N 1322E 075 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 126N 1291E 095 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 146N 1279E 115 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 8.1N 137.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.1N 137.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 8.6N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 9.0N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 9.2N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 9.4N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 10.5N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.6N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.6N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 8.2N 137.1E.
13APR21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
27 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NGULU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.
//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1373E 25
0221041318 81N1371E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 7.3N, 138.6E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(SURIGAE) STATUS. TS SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 7.8N, 137.5E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS
DATA ESTIMATED FROM SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 131800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1
NAME 2102 SURIGAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 131800UTC 7.9N 137.7E
MOVEMENT W 12KT
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 140600UTC 8.2N 137.7E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
24HR
POSITION 141800UTC 8.6N 137.7E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
36HR
POSITION 150600UTC 8.8N 137.1E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 151800UTC 9.0N 136.2E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
72HR
POSITION 161800UTC 10.1N 133.4E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
96HR
POSITION 171800UTC 12.1N 130.0E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
120HR
POSITION 181800UTC 13.6N 128.9E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 07.8N 137.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTHWEST 180NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 08.9N 137.9E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 151800UTC 09.2N 136.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 161800UTC 10.1N 133.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 171800UTC 12.3N 130.0E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 181800UTC 13.9N 129.0E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 07.8N 137.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTHWEST 180NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 08.9N 137.9E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 151800UTC 09.2N 136.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 161800UTC 10.1N 133.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 131800
WARNING 131800.
WARNING VALID 141800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2102 SURIGAE (2102) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1002 HPA
AT 07.8N 137.5E CAROLINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 08.9N 137.9E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 09.2N 136.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 10.1N 133.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 12.3N 130.0E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 13.9N 129.0E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 131500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 210413132011
2021041312 02W TWO 001 01 310 06 SATL SYNP 020
T000 079N 1373E 025
T012 082N 1373E 035 R034 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 086N 1374E 045 R034 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 090N 1371E 055 R050 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 093N 1366E 060 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 100N 1343E 070 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 116N 1314E 095 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 133N 1297E 115 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 7.9N 137.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 7.9N 137.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 8.2N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 8.6N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 9.0N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 9.3N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 10.0N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 11.6N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 13.3N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 8.0N 137.3E.
13APR21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 107 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 11
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.//
0221041100 51N1452E 15
0221041106 51N1445E 15
0221041112 53N1438E 20
0221041118 56N1430E 20
0221041200 58N1422E 20
0221041206 61N1414E 20
0221041212 69N1409E 20
0221041218 73N1397E 20
0221041300 73N1385E 20
0221041306 75N1378E 20
0221041312 79N1373E 25
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Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 7.9N 137.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 7.9N 137.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 8.2N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 8.6N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 9.0N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 9.3N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 10.0N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 11.6N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 13.3N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 8.0N 137.3E.
13APR21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 107 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 11
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 130330).//
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