Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HABANA-21
in , Mauritius

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Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 160046
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 50/13/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 16/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.5 S / 70.9 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 335 SO: 335 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 220 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/03/2021 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SO: 215 NO: 55

24H: 17/03/2021 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 140

36H: 17/03/2021 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

48H: 18/03/2021 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

60H: 18/03/2021 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 19/03/2021 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 63.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
SOUS L'ACTION DU FORT CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST (20-30KT SELON LE
CIMSS) ET DE L'AIR SEC, LE CENTRE EST TOUJOURS TOTALEMENT DENUE DE
CONVECTION PROFONDE. UNE FAIBLE ACTIVITE PERSISTE LOIN DU CENTRE DANS
LE QUADRANT SUD-EST.

HABANA A REPRIS SA ROUTE VERS L'OUEST, SOUS L'INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE
DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE
RENFORCE AU SUD-OUEST. TOUT EN SE COMBLANT, HABANA VA ENSUITE DERIVER
SUR LA FACADE NORD DE CETTE DORSALE, EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS SE BASE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES. LES DIFFERENCES DE VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT DEMEURENT IMPORTANTES PARMI LES GUIDANCES CE QUI INDIQUE
UNE INCERTITUDE PLUS IMPORTANTE QUE LA NORMALE EN TERME DE TIMING.

AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST TRES PRESENT ET DE L'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES VONT RESTER
DEFAVORABLES POUR HABANA. DE PLUS, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT REPASSER SUR
DES EAUX QU'IL A DEJA LUI-MEME REFROIDI AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H.
AUCUNE INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE N'EST DONC ATTENDUE MEME SI LA
PRESENCE D'UN THALWEG A PROXIMITE AUJOURD'HUI POURRAIT FAVORISER LE
MAINTIEN DU GRAND FRAIS DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.

DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS, LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL D'HABANA DEVRAIT PASSER
AU SUD DE L'ILE RODRIGUES SANS CONSEQUENCE MAJEURE EN TERMES DE VENTS
OU DE PLUIE.

CECI EST LE DERNIER BULLETIN SUR LE SYSTEME HABANA PAR LE CMRS DE LA
REUNION, SAUF REINTENSIFICATION. LE SYSTEME SERA TOUJOURS SUIVI DANS
LE BULLETIN AWIO21=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 160046
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 50/13/20202021
1.A FILLING UP 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 70.9 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 335 SW: 335 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 220 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/16 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SW: 215 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/17 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 140

36H: 2021/03/17 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2021/03/18 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2021/03/18 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2021/03/19 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 63.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR (20-30KT
ACCORDING TO CIMSS), AND DRY AIR ALOFT, THE CENTER IS STILL TOTALLY
EXPOSED DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS STILL PRESENT FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HABANA RESUMED A WESTERLY MOTION, UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF A
MID/LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SOUTH-WEST. WHILE FILLING-UP,
HABANA SHOULD THEN DRIFT GENERALLY WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE RIDGE. THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
BEST GUIDANCES AVAILABLE. SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK DIFFERENCES REMAIN
BETWEEN THE MAIN MODELS, INDICATING A HIGHER UNCERTAINTY THAN USUAL
ON THE TIMING.

WITH MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVELS, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNCONDUCIVE FOR HABANA. FURTHERMORE, THE
SYSTEM COULD TRACK BACKWARDS OVER WATERS IT ALREADY COOLED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST HOWEVER THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TODAY MAY HELP IN THE PERSISTENCE OF NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS, HABANA'S RESIDUAL LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF
RODRIGUES ISLAND WITH NO MAJOR CONSEQUENCES IN TERMS OF WINDS AND
RAINFALL.

THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ON THE SYSTEM HABANA BY RSMC LA REUNION,
UNLESS IT INTENSIFIES AGAIN. IT WILL STILL BE MONITORED IN THE DAILY
AWIO20 BULLETIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 160033
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/03/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 050/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/03/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: FILLING UP 13 (HABANA) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 70.9 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING FROM 100 NM UP TO 300 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/16 AT 12 UTC:
22.7 S / 69.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/17 AT 00 UTC:
22.6 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 75 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ON THE SYSTEM HABANA BY RSMC LA REUNION IF
THERE IS NO MORE INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE MONITORED
IN THE AWIO20 BULLETIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 22.1S 71.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 71.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 22.2S 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 22.3S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 71.0E.
15MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
454 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, MAURITIUS,
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN CONVECTION
CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY DECAY AS IT SHEARED 160NM+ SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A
LARGE, RAGGED, AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLC
FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF T2.0/30KTS FROM PGTW AND T2.6/39KTS FROM ADT AND REFLECTS THE
RAPIDLY WEAKENING STATE OF THE CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM IS IN A VERY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25KTS+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT
AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT NEAR THE SURFACE. TC 24S IS QUASI-STATIONARY
(QS) IN A COL BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST AND
THE STR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STR BUILDING TO THE SOUTH WILL ASSUME
STEERING AROUND TAU 12 AND SLOWLY DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. THE
HARSH CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND ERODE TC HABANA TO DISSIPATION BY
TAU 12. AFTERWARD, ITS REMNANTS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD, STEERED
BY THE STR TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT;
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE VORTEX EVENTUALLY
EXITS THE COL, THERE IS ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST IS ALSO EXTENDED TO TAU 24 TO SHOW THE
REMNANT STORM MOTION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 151800Z IS 13 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 151834
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 49/13/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 15/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.3 S / 71.7 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 335 SO: 335 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/03/2021 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 155 NO: 55

24H: 16/03/2021 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 85

36H: 17/03/2021 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

48H: 17/03/2021 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

60H: 18/03/2021 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

72H: 18/03/2021 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
SOUS L'ACTION DU FORT CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST (20-30KT SELON LE
CIMSS) ET DE L'AIR SEC, LE CENTRE EST MAITENANT TOTALEMENT DENUE DE
CONVECTION PROFONDE. UNE FAIBLE ACTIVITE PERSISTE LOIN DU CENTRE DANS
LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. CONCERNANT L'INTENSITE, ELLE DEMEURE INCERTAINE
EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES ASCAT DANS LA ZONE DE MAXIMA DE VENT. DES
PASSES SMAP ET SMOS DONNAIENT RESPECTIVEMENT 46KT ET 48KT AUTOUR DE
13Z MAIS SEMBLE SURESTIMER LA FORCE DES VENTS. L'INTENSITE EST
ABAISSE A 35KT.

HABANA RESTE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ACTUELLEMENT MAIS DEVRAIT REPRENDRE
SA ROUTE VERS L'OUEST DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, SOUS L'INFLUENCE
GRANDISSANTE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCE AU SUD-OUEST. TOUT EN SE COMBLANT, HABANA
VA ENSUITE DERIVER SUR LA FACADE NORD DE CETTE DORSALE, EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DE L'OUEST. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS SE BASE SUR UN COMPROMIS
ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES. LES DIFFERENCES DE
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DEMEURENT IMPORTANTES PARMI LES GUIDANCES CE
QUI INDIQUE UNE INCERTITUDE PLUS IMPORTANTE QUE LA NORMALE EN TERME
DE TIMING.

AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST TRES PRESENT ET DE L'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES VONT RESTER
DEFAVORABLES POUR HABANA. DE PLUS, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT REPASSER SUR
DES EAUX QU'IL A DEJA LUI-MEME REFROIDI AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H.
AUCUNE INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE N'EST DONC ATTENDU MEME SI LA
PRESENCE D'UN THALWEG A PROXIMITE DEMAIN POURRAIT FAVORISER LE
MAITIEN DU GRAND FRAIS DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.

EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL D'HABANA DEVRAIT PASSER AU
SUD DE L'ILE RODRIGUES SANS CONSEQUENCE MAJEURE EN TERMES DE VENTS OU
DE PLUIE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 151834
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 49/13/20202021
1.A FILLING UP 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/15 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 71.7 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 335 SW: 335 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/16 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 155 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/16 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85

36H: 2021/03/17 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2021/03/17 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2021/03/18 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2021/03/18 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR (20-30KT
ACCORDING TO CIMSS), AND DRY AIR ALOFT, THE CENTER IS NOW TOTALLY
EXPOSED DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS STILL PRESENT FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS RATHER UNCERTAIN WITH THE LACK OF ASCAT SWATH
IN THE ARE OF THE MAXIMUM WINDS. SMAP AND SMOS AFTERNOON SWATH GAVE
AROUND RESPECTIVELY 46KT AND 48KT BUT SEEMS TO OVERESTIMATE A BIT THE
WIND STRENGTH. INTENSITY IS DOWNGRADED TO 35KT.


HABANA CURRENTLY REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY, BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
WESTERLY MOTION SHORTLY, UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF A
MID/LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SOUTH-WEST. WHILE FILLING-UP,
HABANA SHOULD THEN DRIFT GENERALLY WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE RIDGE. THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
BEST GUIDANCES AVAILABLE. SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK DIFFERENCES REMAIN
BETWEEN THE MAIN MODELS, INDICATING A HIGHER UNCERTAINTY THAN USUAL
ON THE TIMING.

WITH MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVELS, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNCONDUCIVE FOR HABANA. FURTHERMORE, THE
SYSTEM COULD TRACK BACKWARDS OVER WATERS IT ALREADY COOLED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST HOWEVER THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TOMORROW MAY HELP IN THE PERSISTENCE OF
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

FROM WEDNESDAY, HABANA'S RESIDUAL LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF RODRIGUES
ISLAND WITH NO MAJOR CONSEQUENCES IN TERMS OF WINDS AND RAINFALL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 151822
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/03/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 049/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 15/03/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: FILLING UP 13 (HABANA) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 71.7 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING FROM 80 NM UP TO 300 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/16 AT 06 UTC:
22.3 S / 70.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/16 AT 18 UTC:
22.6 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 151205
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 48/13/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 15/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.3 S / 71.6 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/3.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 335 SO: 335 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 110

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/03/2021 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 250 SO: 295 NO: 75

24H: 16/03/2021 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 55

36H: 17/03/2021 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

48H: 17/03/2021 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

60H: 18/03/2021 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

72H: 18/03/2021 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/03/2021 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

120H: 20/03/2021 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 55.6 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0 CI=3.0

SOUS L'ACTION DU CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE NORD-OUEST (13KT SELON LE
CIMSS), LA CONVECTION A FINIT PAR SE DETACHER NETTEMENT DU CENTRE DE
CIRCULATION QUI EST DESORMAIS EXPOSE. LA CONVECTION NE SE DECLENCHE
PLUS QUE SUR LE QUADRANT SUD-EST, A PLUS DE 80 MN DU CENTRE. HABANA
EST DONC RETROGRADE AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE, EN SE
BASANT SUR L'EVOLUTION DES ANALYSES DVORAK.

HABANA RESTE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ACTUELLEMENT MAIS DEVRAIT REPRENDRE
SA ROUTE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCE AU SUD-OUEST. TOUT EN SE
COMBLANT, HABANA VA ENSUITE DERIVER SUR LA FACADE NORD DE CETTE
DORSALE, EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS SE
BASE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES. LES
DIFFERENCES DE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DEMEURENT IMPORTANTES PARMI LES
GUIDANCES CE QUI INDIQUE UNE INCERTITUDE PLUS IMPORTANTE QUE LA
NORMALE EN TERME DE TIMING.

AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST TRES PRESENT ET DE L'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES VONT RESTER
DEFAVORABLES POUR HABANA. DE PLUS, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT REPASSER SUR
DES EAUX QU'IL A DEJA LUI-MEME REFROIDI AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H.
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT MARQUE EST DONC ATTENDU.

EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL D'HABANA DEVRAIT PASSER AU
SUD DE L'ILE RODRIGUES SANS CONSEQUENCE MAJEURE EN TERMES DE VENTS OU
DE PLUIE. LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE D'EST GENEREE PAR HABANA S'EST DEJA
PROPAGEE JUSQU'AUX ILES DES MASCAREIGNES ET RESTERA SENSIBLE EN
PREMIERE PARTIE DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 151205
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 48/13/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 71.6 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 335 SW: 335 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/16 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 250 SW: 295 NW: 75

24H: 2021/03/16 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/17 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2021/03/17 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2021/03/18 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2021/03/18 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/19 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

120H: 2021/03/20 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 55.6 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=3.0

CONVECTION FINALLY SEPARATED FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR (13KT ACCORDING TO
CIMSS ESTIMATE). THE LLCC IS NOW EXPOSED. CONVECTION ONLY TRIGGERS
WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, MORE THAN 80 NM AWAY FROM THE
CENTER. HABANA IS THUS DOWNGRADED TO THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
STAGE, FOLLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF DVORAK ANALYSIS.

HABANA CURRENTLY REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY, BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION SHORTLY, UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF A
MID/LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SOUTH-WEST. WHILE FILLING-UP,
HABANA SHOULD THEN DRIFT GENERALLY WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE RIDGE. THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
BEST GUIDANCES AVAILABLE. SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK DIFFERENCES REMAIN
BETWEEN THE MAIN MODELS, INDICATING A HIGHER UNCERTAINTY THAN USUAL
ON THE TIMING.

WITH MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVELS, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNCONDUCIVE FOR HABANA. FURTHERMORE, THE
SYSTEM COULD TRACK BACKWARDS OVER WATERS IT ALREADY COOLED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS THUS FORECASTED.

FROM WEDNESDAY, HABANA'S RESIDUAL LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF RODRIGUES
ISLAND WITH NO MAJOR CONSEQUENCES IN TERMS OF WINDS AND RAINFALL. THE
EASTERLY CYCLONIC SWELL GENERATED BY HABANA HAS ALREADY PROPAGATED UP
TO THE MASCARENES AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 151203
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/03/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 048/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 15/03/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (HABANA) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 71.6 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING FROM 80 NM UP TO 300 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/16 AT 00 UTC:
22.1 S / 70.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/16 AT 12 UTC:
22.0 S / 68.8 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 22.5S 71.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 71.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 22.4S 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 22.3S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 22.3S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 22.1S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 21.7S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 71.1E.
15MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
795 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 24S IS
WEAKENING STEADILY UNDER HIGH (25-35 KNOTS) WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS REVEALED IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MSI INDICATES
RAPIDLY-DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW/FMEE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.0-3.5 (45-55
KNOTS). TC HABANA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER HIGH VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. TC 24S IS
SITUATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST AND A STR TO THE EAST, AND IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS
A BROAD LOW-LEVEL STR BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AFTER TAU 12. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE SHORT-TERM QUASI-
STATIONARY TRACK MOTION AND WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 12, HOWEVER,
THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS MODERATE. DUE
TO THE STEADY WEAKENING TREND, INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 OR
PERHAPS EARLIER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY
REGENERATE TO GALE-FORCE STRENGTH AFTER TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD
OVER WARM SST (27-28C) BUT UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MARGINAL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 150611
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 47/13/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 15/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.5 S / 71.4 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SO: 335 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 240 SO: 165 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 90 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/03/2021 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 315 SO: 335 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 85

24H: 16/03/2021 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 220 SO: 260 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 35

36H: 16/03/2021 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 85

48H: 17/03/2021 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 55

60H: 17/03/2021 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

72H: 18/03/2021 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/03/2021 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

120H: 20/03/2021 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0- CI=3.5

LA CONVECTION RESISTE TANT BIEN QUE MAL AU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
NORD-NORD-OUEST ESTIME A 15KT SELON LES DONNEES CIMSS, MAIS ELLE A EU
TENDANCE A S'AFFAIBLIR PRES DU CENTRE SUR LES 2 DERNIERES HEURES.
L'IMAGE SSMIS DE 2340Z REVELE UNE STRUCTURE INTERNE ENCORE COHERENTE,
LA CONVECTION LA PLUS FORTE RESTANT CEPENDANT CANTONNEE AU
DEMI-CERCLE SUD. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE ACTUELLE EST BASEE SUR
L'ANALYSE DVORAK, CONFORTEE PAR UNE PASSE PARTIELLE SMAP A 0123Z QUI
A MESURE 48KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST.

HABANA RESTE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ACTUELLEMENT MAIS DEVRAIT REPRENDRE
SA ROUTE VERS LE NORD-OUEST DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCE AU SUD-OUEST. TOUT EN SE
COMBLANT, HABANA VA ENSUITE CONTINUER SON DEPLACEMENT SUR LA FACADE
NORD DE CETTE DORSALE, EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST. LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS SE BASE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES. LES DIFFERENCES DE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT
DEMEURENT IMPORTANTES PARMI LES GUIDANCES CE QUI INDIQUE UNE
INCERTITUDE PLUS IMPORTANTE QUE LA NORMALE EN TERME DE TIMING. EN FIN
DE PERIODE, ON NOTE EGALEMENT UN NET DECALAGE DES MEMBRES DE LA
PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE EUROPEENNE VERS LE NORD DANS LE DERNIER RESEAU
PAR RAPPORT AUX RESEAUX PRECEDENTS, CE QUI POURRAIT AVOIR UN IMPACT
SUR L'AMPLEUR D'UNE EVENTUELLE DEGRADATION PLUVIO-ORAGEUSE SUR LES
MASCAREIGNES.

AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST TRES PRESENT ET DE L'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES VONT RESTER
DEFAVORABLES POUR HABANA. DE PLUS, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT REPASSER SUR
DES EAUX QU'IL A DEJA LUI-MEME REFROIDI AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H.
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT MARQUE EST DONC ENVISAGE, AVANT UN COMBLEMENT
PROGRESSIF ENSUITE.

EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL D'HABANA DEVRAIT PASSER AU
SUD DE L'ILE RODRIGUES SANS CONSEQUENCE MAJEURE EN TERMES DE VENTS OU
DE PLUIE. LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE D'EST GENEREE PAR HABANA S'EST DEJA
PROPAGEE JUSQU'AUX ILES DES MASCAREIGNES ET RESTERA SENSIBLE EN
PREMIERE PARTIE DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE. UNE DEGRADATION PLUVIO-ORAGEUSE
SIGNIFICATIVE RESTE POSSIBLE SUR LES MASCAREIGNES EN FIN DE SEMAINE,
BIEN QUE CE NE SOIT PAS LE SCENARIO PRIVILEGIE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 150611
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 47/13/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 71.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SW: 335 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/15 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 315 SW: 335 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 85

24H: 2021/03/16 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 220 SW: 260 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 35

36H: 2021/03/16 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 85

48H: 2021/03/17 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/17 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2021/03/18 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/19 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

120H: 2021/03/20 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- CI=3.5

DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL TRIGGERING NEAR THE CENTER DESPITE THE
MODERATE NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR ESTIMATED AT 15KT BY CIMSS. OVER
THE LAST 2 HRS, IT BEGAN TO WEAKEN NEAR THE CENTER. THE 2340Z SSMIS
MW IMAGES SUGGEST THAT HABANA'S INNER STRUCTURE REMAINS RATHER
COHERENT FOR NOW, ALTHOUGH THE MAIN CONVECTION ONLY TRIGGERS WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON
THE DVORAK ANALYSIS, IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE READING OF 48 KT
GIVEN BY A PARTIAL SMAP SWATH AT 0123Z ON THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HABANA CURRENTLY REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY, BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
NORTHWESTERLY MOTION SHORTLY, UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF A
MID/LOW-LEVEL RIFGE BUILDING IN THE SOUTH-WEST. WHILE FILLING-UP,
HABANA SHOULD THEN TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE RIDGE. THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
BAST GUIDANCES AVAILABLE. SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK DIFFERENCES REMAIN
BETWEEN THE MAIN MODELS, INDICATING A HIGHER UNCERTAINTY THAN USUAL
ON THE TIMING. FROM THURDSAY, A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE EURO ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE LAST RUN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS RUNS.
THIS COULD MODIFY THE SEVERITY OF A POTENTIAL WEATHER DEGRADATION ON
THE MASCARENES.

WITH MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVELS, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNCONDUCIVE FOR HABANA. FURTHERMORE, THE
SYSTEM COULD TRACK BACKWARDS OVER WATERS IT ALREADY COOLED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS THUS FORECASTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS, BEFORE A MORE GRADUAL FILL-UP.

FROM WEDNESDAY, HABANA'S RESIDUAL LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF RODRIGUES
ISLAND WITH NO MAJOR CONSEQUENCES IN TERMS OF WINDS AND RAINFALL. THE
EASTERLY CYCLONIC SWELL GENERATED BY HABANA HAS ALREADY PROPAGATED UP
TO THE MASCARENES AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT DAYS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COULD STILL OCCUR ON THE MASCARENES
AT THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT IT IS NOT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
CURRENTLY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 150604
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/03/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 047/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 15/03/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (HABANA) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 71.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 35
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/15 AT 18 UTC:
22.2 S / 70.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/16 AT 06 UTC:
21.7 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 35 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 150038
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 46/13/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 15/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.2 S / 71.4 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 78 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SO: 315 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SO: 240 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 130 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/03/2021 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 345 SO: 350 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 75

24H: 16/03/2021 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 250 SO: 295 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 0

36H: 16/03/2021 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SO: 165 NO: 0

48H: 17/03/2021 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 165 NO: 0

60H: 17/03/2021 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 18/03/2021 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/03/2021 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

LA CONVECTION PROFONDE SE MAINTIENT AU SUD DU CENTRE MAIS AVEC DES
SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI SE SONT RECHAUFFES AU FIL DE LA NUIT. EN
EXTRAPOLATION DES VENTS AFFICHES SUR LES ASCAT D'HIER SOIR,
L'INTENSITE FINALE EST ABAISSEE A 55 KT LEGEREMENT AU-DESSUS DE
L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DE DVORAK ET SENSIBLEMENT AU-DESSUS DU SATCON
(VERS 40 KT EN VENTS 10-MIN A 2014Z).

LES GRANDES LIGNES DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE NE CHANGENT PAS.
LES DERNIERS FIX FIABLES (AMSR2 DE 2025Z) MONTRENT QUE LE SYSTEME A
PEU BOUGE DEPUIS HIER SOIR. AUJOURD'HUI, UNE REPRISE DU MOUVEMENT EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST EST ATTENDUE SUITE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DU SYSTEME, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCE AU SUD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME, QUI
DEVRAIT ALORS ETRE EN VOIE DE COMBLEMENT, VA CONTINUER SON
DEPLACEMENT SUR LA FACADE NORD DE CETTE DORSALE. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU
CMRS SE BASE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES
DISPONIBLES. LES DIFFERENCES DE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DEMEURENT
IMPORTANTES PARMI LES GUIDANCES ET QUE LA PREVISION EST DONC PLUS
INCERTAINE QUE LA NORMALE EN TERME DE TIMING.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE, ON GARDE LA MEME PHILOSOPHIE. LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT DEFAVORABLES AVEC UN FORT
CISAILLEMENT EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE APPORTANT DE L'AIR SEC
GRADUELLEMENT AU COEUR DU SYSTEME. LUNDI, LORS DE LA REPRISE DE SON
DEPLACEMENT GLOBAL VERS L'OUEST, HABANA NE RENCONTRERA PLUS DE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLES AVEC DE L'AIR SEC SURPLOMBANT TOTALEMENT LE
CENTRE. ON PEUT AUSSI SIGNALER QUE SUR LA NOUVELLE PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE, HABANA VA REPASSER SUR LES EAUX QU'IL A LUI-MEME
REFROIDI. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT MARQUE EST DONC ENVISAGE AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 24H.

EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL D'HABANA DEVRAIT PASSER AU
SUD DE L'ILE RODRIGUES SANS CONSEQUENCE MAJEURE EN TERMES DE VENTS OU
DE PLUIE. LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE D'EST GENEREE PAR HABANA S'EST DEJA
PROPAGEE JUSQU'AUX ILES DES MASCAREIGNES ET RESTERA SENSIBLE EN
PREMIERE PARTIE DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 150038
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 46/13/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 71.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 78 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 240 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/15 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 345 SW: 350 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 75

24H: 2021/03/16 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 250 SW: 295 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 0

36H: 2021/03/16 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 0

48H: 2021/03/17 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 165 NW: 0

60H: 2021/03/17 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2021/03/18 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/19 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CENTER BUT WITH CLOUDY TOPS
THAT HAVE WARMED UP DURING THE NIGHT. EXTRAPOLATING FROM THE WINDS
DISPLAYED ON LAST NIGHT'S ASCAT SWATHS, THE FINAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 55 KT SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE SATCON (AROUND 40 KT IN 10-MIN WINDS AT
2014Z).

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE FORECAST DO NOT CHANGE. THE LAST RELIABLE
FIXES (AMSR2 FROM 2025Z) SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED LITTLE SINCE
YESTERDAY EVENING. TODAY, IT SHOULD RESUME ITS WESTWARDS TRACK, AFTER
WEAKENING, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW
TROPOSPHERE WHICH IS STRENGTHENING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM,
EXPECTED THEN TO BE FILLING UP, WILL CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT IN A
GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE. THE
RSMC'S TRACK IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD MOTION REMAIN IMPORTANT
AMONG THE GUIDANCES AND THAT THE FORECAST IS THEREFORE MORE UNCERTAIN
THAN NORMAL IN TERMS OF TIMING.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WE KEEP THE SAME PHILOSOPHY. THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE WITH A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR
BRINGING DRY AIR GRADUALLY TO THE INNER CORE. THE WEAK MOVEMENT MAY
LIMIT THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL. ON MONDAY, AS IT RESUMES ITS OVERALL
WESTWARD MOTION, HABANA IS NOT EXPECTED TO MEET A CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY AIR ALL ABOVE THE CENTER. WE CAN ALSO POINT OUT
THAT ON THE NEW TRACK FORECAST, HABANA WILL PASS AGAIN ON THE WATERS
THAT IT HAS COOLED ITSELF. A MARKED WEAKENING IS THUS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MID-WEEK, THE REMNANT LOW OF HABANA SHOULD EVOLVE SOUTH OF RODRIGUES
ISLAND WITHOUT ANY PARTICULAR CONSEQUENCE IN TERMS OF WINDS OR RAIN.
EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY HABANA HAS ALREADY PROPAGATED TO THE
MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS AND WILL LAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 150021
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/03/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 046/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 15/03/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (HABANA) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 71.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
45 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/15 AT 12 UTC:
21.9 S / 70.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/16 AT 00 UTC:
21.7 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 22.1S 71.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 71.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.7S 71.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.6S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 21.6S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 21.6S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 21.4S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 71.1E.
14MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 781
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE WITH A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BEGINNING TO
EMERGE TO THE NORTH OF FLARING CONVECTION WHICH IS SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A 141521Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE
DECOUPLING OF THE LLCC AND DISRUPTION OF THE TC CORE. A 141636Z
ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER BULLSEYE LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION, AND PROVIDED GOOD DATA TO SUPPORT AN UPDATE TO THE RADIUS
OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND WIND RADII. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED LOWER THAN AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE IN LIGHT OF
THE ASCAT DATA WHICH DEPICTED 55 KNOT MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. OVER THE PREVIOUS TWELVE HOURS THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE. CIMSS ANALYSIS REVEALS A NORTHWESTERLY VWS OF
25-30 KNOTS AND HWRF VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL VERY DRY AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS NOW HAVING COMPLETELY ENVELOPED THE CORE OF TC 24S
ABOVE THE 750MB LEVEL. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG SHEAR AND DRY
AIR HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO OVERCOME THE PERSISTENT AND ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LEADING TO STEADY WEAKENING AND
ULTIMATE DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, IF NOT BEFORE. TC 24S IS NESLTED IN
A WEAK AND COMPETING STEERING PATTERN BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) CENTERS TO THE EAST AND WEST. TRACK MOTION WILL BE ERRATIC
THROUGH TAU 24, BUT AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, IT WILL
ACCELERATE WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
THROUGH TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL SCENARIO BUT DUE TO THE NEAR-TERM ERRATIC MOTION
AND GENERALLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK STEERING
PATTERNS, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 141832
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 45/13/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 14/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.3 S / 71.1 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 977 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 52 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SO: 315 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 110 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/03/2021 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SO: 335 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 95

24H: 15/03/2021 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 315 SO: 325 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 35

36H: 16/03/2021 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 260 NO: 65

48H: 16/03/2021 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 55

60H: 17/03/2021 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 17/03/2021 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/03/2021 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=4.0+

L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST RENFORCEE CE SOIR AU SUD DU CENTRE. EN
IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST LEGEREMENT
AMELIOREE: LE CENTRE CISAILLE DE CET APRES-MIDI EST REPASSE SOUS LA
MASSE. LES PASS ASCAT A ET B DE RESPECTIVEMENT 1523Z ET 1638Z, ONT
RELEVE 55 KT ET 57 KT DE VENT MAX. CES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SONT
PROBABLEMENT UNIQUEMENT LOCALISES DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. LA
CIRCULATION EST DEVENU AUSSI ASYMETRIQUE AVEC DES VENTS MOINS FORTS
ET S'ETENDANT MOINS LOIN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD. LE RAYON DE VENT
MAX APPARAISSANT EGALEMENT ELARGI, LA PRESSION CENTRALE A ETE
LEGEREMENT AUGMENTEE MALGRE UNE INTENSITE FINALE INCHANGEE A 60 KT.

LES GRANDES LIGNES DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE NE CHANGENT PAS.
HABANA SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX
DIRECTEURS TRES FAIBLES ET CONTRADICTOIRES. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN LUNDI,
UNE REPRISE DU MOUVEMENT GLOBAL VERS L'OUEST EST ATTENDUE SUITE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCE AU
SUD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME, QUI DEVRAIT ALORS ETRE EN VOIE DE COMBLEMENT,
VA CONTINUER SON DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUR LA
FACADE NORD DE CETTE DORSALE. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS SE BASE SUR UN
COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE, ON GARDE LA MEME PHILOSOPHIE. LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT DEFAVORABLES AVEC UN FORT
CISAILLEMENT EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE APPORTANT DE L'AIR SEC
GRADUELLEMENT AU COEUR DU SYSTEME. LUNDI, LORS DE LA REPRISE DE SON
DEPLACEMENT GLOBAL VERS L'OUEST, HABANA NE RENCONTRERA PLUS DE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLES AVEC DE L'AIR SEC SURPLOMBANT TOTALEMENT LE
CENTRE. ON PEUT AUSSI SIGNALER QUE SUR LA NOUVELLE PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE, HABANA VA REPASSER SUR LES EAUX QU'IL A LUI-MEME
REFROIDI. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT MARQUE EST DONC ENVISAGE AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 24H.

MERCREDI PROCHAIN, LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL D'HABANA DEVRAIT PASSER AU SUD
DE L'ILE RODRIGUES SANS CONSEQUENCE MAJEURE EN TERMES DE VENTS OU DE
PLUIE. LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE D'EST GENEREE PAR HABANA S'EST DEJA
PROPAGEE JUSQU'AUX ILES DES MASCAREIGNES ET RESTERA SENSIBLE EN
PREMIERE PARTIE DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 141832
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 45/13/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 71.1 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 52 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/15 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 335 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 95

24H: 2021/03/15 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 315 SW: 325 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 35

36H: 2021/03/16 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 260 NW: 65

48H: 2021/03/16 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/17 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/17 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/18 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.0+

THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING SOUTH OF THE
CENTER. IN CLASSICAL IMAGERY, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS SLIGHTLY
IMPROVED: THE SHEARED CENTER OF THIS AFTERNOON IS NOW BACK UNDER THE
CONVECTIVE MASS. THE ASCAT PASSES A AND B OF RESPECTIVELY 1523Z AND
1638Z, HAVE RECORDED 55 KT AND 57 KT OF MAX WIND. THESE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE PROBABLY ONLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE
CIRCULATION HAS ALSO BECOME ASYMMETRIC WITH WEAKER WINDS EXTENDING
LESS FAR INTO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE RADIUS OF MAX WIND ALSO
APPEARED TO BE WIDENED, THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED
DESPITE A FINAL INTENSITY UNCHANGED AT 60 KT.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE FORECAST DO NOT CHANGE. HABANA IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING SOUTH-EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY WEAK AND
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. TOMORROW MONDAY AND ONWARDS, IT SHOULD
RESUME ITS WESTWARDS TRACK, AFTER WEAKENING, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW TROPOSPHERE WHICH IS STRENGTHENING TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM, EXPECTED THEN TO BE FILLING UP, WILL
CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THIS RIDGE. THE RSMC'S TRACK IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WE KEEP THE SAME PHILOSOPHY. THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE WITH A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR
BRINGING DRY AIR GRADUALLY TO THE INNER CORE. THE WEAK MOVEMENT MAY
LIMIT THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL. ON MONDAY, AS IT RESUMES ITS OVERALL
WESTWARD MOTION, HABANA IS NOT EXPECTED TO MEET A CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY AIR ALL ABOVE THE CENTER. WE CAN ALSO POINT OUT
THAT ON THE NEW TRACK FORECAST, HABANA WILL PASS AGAIN ON THE WATERS
THAT IT HAS COOLED ITSELF. A MARKED WEAKENING IS THUS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY, THE REMNANT LOW OF HABANA SHOULD EVOLVE SOUTH OF
RODRIGUES ISLAND WITHOUT ANY PARTICULAR CONSEQUENCE IN TERMS OF WINDS
OR RAIN. EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY HABANA HAS ALREADY PROPAGATED TO
THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS AND WILL LAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 141813
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/03/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 045/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 14/03/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (HABANA) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 71.1 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/15 AT 06 UTC:
21.9 S / 70.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 50 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/15 AT 18 UTC:
21.5 S / 69.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 141235
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 44/13/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 14/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.0 S / 70.8 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 974 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 335 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 220 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/03/2021 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SO: 335 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 35

24H: 15/03/2021 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 280 SO: 335 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 85

36H: 16/03/2021 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 285 NO: 55

48H: 16/03/2021 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

60H: 17/03/2021 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 17/03/2021 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0+ CI=4.0+

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'HABANA A EVOLUE PROGRESSIVEMENT EN UNE
CONFIGURATION CISAILLE AVEC LE CENTRE DE SURFACE AU NORD-OUEST DU
MAXIMUM D'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE, EN LIEN AVEC LE FORT CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES ASR2 DE
0930Z MONTRENT QUE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES (37GHZ) EST
ENCORE TRES MARQUEE. DANS LA CONTINUITE DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT OBSERVE
CES DERNIERES HEURES, LES VENTS MAXIMUMS SONT ESTIMES A 60KT.

LES GRANDES LIGNES DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE NE CHANGENT PAS.
HABANA SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX
DIRECTEURS TRES FAIBLES ET CONTRADICTOIRES. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN LUNDI,
UNE REPRISE DU MOUVEMENT GLOBAL VERS L'OUEST EST ATTENDUE SUITE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCE AU
SUD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME, QUI DEVRAIT ALORS ETRE EN VOIE DE COMBLEMENT,
VA CONTINUER SON DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUR LA
FACADE NORD DE CETTE DORSALE. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS SE BASE SUR UN
COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES,NOTAMMENT LE
MODELE EUROPEEN.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE, ON GARDE LA MEME PHILOSOPHIE. LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT DEFAVORABLES AVEC UN FORT
CISAILLEMENT EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE APPORTANT DE L'AIR SEC
GRADUELLEMENT AU COEUR DU SYSTEME. LUNDI, LORS DE LA REPRISE DE SON
DEPLACEMENT GLOBAL VERS L'OUEST, HABANA NE RENCONTRERA PLUS DE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLES AVEC DE L'AIR SEC SURPLOMBANT TOTALEMENT LE
CENTRE.

MERCREDI PROCHAIN, LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL D'HABANA DEVRAIT PASSER AU SUD
DE L'ILE RODRIGUES SANS CONSEQUENCE MAJEURE EN TERMES DE VENTS OU DE
PLUIE. LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE D'EST GENEREE PAR HABANA S'EST DEJA
PROPAGEE JUSQU'AUX ILES DES MASCAREIGNES ET RESTERA SENSIBLE EN
PREMIERE PARTIE DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 141235
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 44/13/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 70.8 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 335 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/15 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 335 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 35

24H: 2021/03/15 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 280 SW: 335 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 85

36H: 2021/03/16 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 285 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/16 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2021/03/17 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2021/03/17 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+ CI=4.0+

HABANA CLOUD PATTERN EVOLVED PROGRESSIVELY TOWARD A SHEAR PATTERN
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED NORTH-WETS OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, BECAUSE OF THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHEAR. 0930Z
AMSR2 DATA, HOWEVER STILL SHOW A STRONG INNER CORE AT LOW LEVELS. IN
THE CONTINUITY OF THE OBSERVED WEAKENING, INTENSITY IS DOWNGRADED TO
60KT.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE FORECAST DO NOT CHANGE. HABANA IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING SOUTH-EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY WEAK AND
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. TOMORROW MONDAY AND ONWARDS, IT SHOULD
RESUME ITS WESTWARDS TRACK, AFTER WEAKENING, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW TROPOSPHERE WHICH IS STRENGTHENING TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM, EXPECTED THEN TO BE FILLING UP, WILL
CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THIS RIDGE. THE RSMC'S TRACK IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY THE EUROPEAN DETERMINISTIC.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WE KEEP THE SAME PHILOSOPHY. THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE WITH A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR
BRINGING DRY AIR GRADUALLY TO THE INNER CORE. THE WEAK MOVEMENT MAY
LIMIT THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL. ON MONDAY, AS IT RESUMES ITS OVERALL
WESTWARD MOTION, HABANA IS NOT EXPECTED TO MEET A CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY AIR ALL ABOVE THE CENTER.

ON WEDNESDAY, THE REMNANT LOW OF HABANA SHOULD EVOLVE SOUTH OF
RODRIGUES ISLAND WITHOUT ANY PARTICULAR CONSEQUENCE IN TERMS OF WINDS
OR RAIN. EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY HABANA HAS ALREADY PROPAGATED TO
THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS AND WILL LAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 141225
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/03/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 044/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 14/03/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (HABANA) 974 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 70.8 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/15 AT 00 UTC:
21.9 S / 70.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/15 AT 12 UTC:
21.7 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 140643
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 43/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 14/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.0 S / 70.4 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 973 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 335 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 220 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/03/2021 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SO: 325 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 75

24H: 15/03/2021 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 325 SO: 295 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 85

36H: 15/03/2021 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 230 SO: 305 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 35

48H: 16/03/2021 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 230 SO: 230 NO: 55

60H: 16/03/2021 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 75

72H: 17/03/2021 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/03/2021 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

LA CONFIGURATION EN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE SE MAINTIENT AVEC DES
SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI SE SONT RECHAUFFES AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6
HEURES. LA POSITION AINSI QUE L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME ONT PU ETRE
RECALEES PAR RAPPORT AUX DERNIERES DONNEES SATELLITAIRES
(MICRO-ONDES, ASCAT, DEFILANTS). L'ANALYSE D'INTENSITE A ETE REVUE A
LA HAUSSE NOTAMMENT AVEC LES DONNEES SMAP ET ASCAT QUI DONNAIENT
RESPECTIVEMENT 73KT (0047Z) ET 56KT (0410Z). CELA SUGGERE QUE DES
VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN SONT ENCORE PRESENTS DANS LA CIRCULATION
D'HABANA.

LES GRANDES LIGNES DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE NE CHANGENT PAS.
HABANA SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX
DIRECTEURS TRES FAIBLES ET CONTRADICTOIRES. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN LUNDI,
UNE REPRISE DU MOUVEMENT GLOBAL VERS L'OUEST EST ATTENDUE SUITE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCE AU
SUD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME, QUI DEVRAIT ALORS ETRE EN VOIE DE COMBLEMENT,
VA CONTINUER SON DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUR LA
FACADE NORD DE CETTE DORSALE. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS SE BASE SUR UN
COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES,NOTAMMENT LE
MODELE EUROPEEN.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE, ON GARDE LA MEME PHILOSOPHIE. LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT DEFAVORABLES AVEC UN FORT
CISAILLEMENT EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE APPORTANT DE L'AIR SEC
GRADUELLEMENT AU COEUR DU SYSTEME. ON PEUT EGALEMENT RAJOUTER QUE LE
FAIBLE DEPLACEMENT POURRAIT LIMITER LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. LUNDI,
LORS DE SA REPRISE DE DEPLACEMENT GLOBAL VERS L'OUEST, HABANA NE
RENCONTRERA PLUS DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES AVEC DE L'AIR SEC
SURPLOMBANT LE CENTRE.

MERCREDI PROCHAIN, LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL D'HABANA DEVRAIT PASSER AU SUD
DE L'ILE RODRIGUES SANS CONSEQUENCE MAJEURE EN TERMES DE VENTS OU DE
PLUIE. LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE D'EST GENEREE PAR HABANA S'EST DEJA
PROPAGEE JUSQU'AUX ILES DES MASCAREIGNES ET RESTERA SENSIBLE EN
PREMIERE PARTIE DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 140643
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 43/13/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 70.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 335 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 220 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/14 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SW: 325 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75

24H: 2021/03/15 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 325 SW: 295 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 85

36H: 2021/03/15 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 230 SW: 305 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 35

48H: 2021/03/16 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/16 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 75

72H: 2021/03/17 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/18 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

THE CONFIGURATION AS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST CENTER IS STILL PRESENT
WITH CLOUD TOPS THAT HAVE WARMED UP DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE
LOCATION AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY WERE UPDATED THANKS TO THE LAST
SATELLITE DATE (MICROWAVE, ASCAT, LOW ORBITING). INTENSITY ANALYSIS
WAS UPGRADED ESPECIALLY THANKS TO THE SMAP AND ASCAT SWATHS WHICH
GAVE RESPECTIVELY FOR MAXIMUM WINDS 73KT AT 0047Z AND 56KT AT 0410Z.
THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT THERE IS STILL HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITHIN
HABANA.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE FORECAST DO NOT CHANGE. HABANA IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING SOUTH-EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY WEAK AND
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. TOMORROW MONDAY AND ONWARDS, IT SHOULD
RESUME ITS WESTWARDS TRACK, AFTER WEAKENING, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW TROPOSPHERE WHICH IS STRENGTHENING TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD THEN BE IN THE PROCESS OF
FILLING UP, WILL CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT IN A GENERAL WESTERLY
DIRECTION ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE. THE RSMC'S TRACK IS
BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY
THE EUROPEAN DETERMINISTIC.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WE KEEP THE SAME PHILOSOPHY. THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE WITH A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR
BRINGING DRY AIR GRADUALLY TO THE INNER CORE. THE WEAK MOVEMENT MAY
LIMIT THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL. ON MONDAY, AS IT RESUMES ITS OVERALL
WESTWARD MOTION, HABANA IS NOT EXPECTED TO MEET A CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY AIR ALL ABOVE THE CENTER.

ON WEDNESDAY, THE REMNANT LOW OF HABANA SHOULD EVOLVE SOUTH OF
RODRIGUES ISLAND WITHOUT ANY PARTICULAR CONSEQUENCE IN TERMS OF WINDS
OR RAIN. EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY HABANA HAS ALREADY PROPAGATED TO
THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS AND WILL LAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 140625
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/03/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 043/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 14/03/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 973 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 70.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/14 AT 18 UTC:
22.1 S / 70.5 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/15 AT 06 UTC:
21.9 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 140021
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 42/13/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 14/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.6 S / 70.2 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/03/2021 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SO: 295 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 120

24H: 15/03/2021 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 285 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 95

36H: 15/03/2021 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 325 SO: 315 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 85

48H: 16/03/2021 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SO: 250 NO: 120

60H: 16/03/2021 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 65

72H: 17/03/2021 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/03/2021 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0- CI=4.0+

LA CONFIGURATION EN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE SE MAINTIENT AVEC DES
SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI SE SONT RECHAUFFES AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6
HEURES. L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES MICRO-ONDES RECENTES N'AIDENT PAS A LA
LOCALISATION DU CENTRE QUI EST INCERTAINE. MAIS DANS LE CONTEXTE DE
FLUX DIRECTEUR FAIBLE, HABANA FAIT DU QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ALORS QUE
SON INTENSITE CONTINUE DE FAIBLIR AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMES DE L'ORDRE
DE 60KT D'APRES L'ANALYSE DVORAK. HABANA PASSE LE STADE DE FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE A 00UTC.

LES GRANDES LIGNES DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE NE CHANGE PAS
MALGRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE UN PEU PLUS SUD PAR RAPPORT A LA
PRECEDENTE TENDANCE. HABANA NE BOUGE QUASIMENT PLUS SOUS L'INFLUENCE
DE FLUX DIRECTEURS TRES FAIBLES ET CONTRADICTOIRES, PRESENTANT UNE
LENTE DERIVE VERS LE SUD-EST. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LA PLUPART DES
GUIDANCES CONFIRMENT UNE REPRISE DU MOUVEMENT GLOBAL VERS L'OUEST,
SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCE AU SUD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME, QUI DEVRAIT
ALORS ETRE EN VOIE DE COMBLEMENT, VA CONTINUER SON DEPLACEMENT EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUR LA FACADE NORD DE CETTE DORSALE. LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS SE BASE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES, DONT LA TRAJECTOIRE MOYENNE GLISSE PLUS OU
MOINS AU SUD EN FONCTION DE LA CHRONOLOGIE DE SORTIE DE LA PHASE
QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE, ON GARDE LA MEME PHILOSOPHIE. LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES NE SE SONT VRAIMENT PLUS OPTIMALES ET
CONTINUE D'ETRE DE PLUS EN PLUS DEFAVORABLES DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES : PRESENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE APPORTANT
DE L'AIR SEC GRADUELLEMENT AU COEUR DU SYSTEME ET FAIBLE DEPLACEMENT
LAISSANT UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE LIMITE APPORTANT UNE CONDITION
SUPPLEMENTAIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSMENT RAPIDE DE HABANA. LUNDI, LORS DE SA
REPRISE DE DEPLACEMENT GLOBAL VERS L'OUEST, HABANA SERA DEJA AU STADE
TRES AFFAIBLI DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ET CONTINUERA D'EVOLUER EN
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT PUIS DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE.

A PARTIR DE MARDI PROCHAIN, LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL D'HABANA DEVRAIT
S'APPROCHER DE L'ILE RODRIGUES SANS CONSEQUENCE PARTICULIERE EN
TERMES DE VENTS OU DE PLUIE. LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE D'EST GENEREE PAR
HABANA S'EST DEJA PROPAGEE JUSQU'AUX ILES DES MASCAREIGNES ET RESTERA
SENSIBLE EN PREMIERE PARTIE DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 140021
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 42/13/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 70.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/14 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 295 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 120

24H: 2021/03/15 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 285 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 95

36H: 2021/03/15 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 325 SW: 315 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 85

48H: 2021/03/16 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 250 NW: 120

60H: 2021/03/16 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 65

72H: 2021/03/17 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/18 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0- CI=4.0+

THE CONFIGURATION AS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST CENTER IS MAINTAINED
WITH CLOUD TOPS THAT HAVE WARMED UP DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE LACK
OF RECENT MICROWAVE DATA DOES NOT HELP TO LOCATE THE CENTER WHICH IS
UNCERTAIN. BUT IN THE CONTEXT OF WEAK STEERING FLOW, HABANA IS
QUASI-STATIONARY WHILE ITS INTENSITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH WINDS
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60KT ACCORDING TO THE DVORAK ANALYSIS. HABANA
PASSES THE STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AT 00UTC.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE FORECAST DO NOT CHANGE IN SPITE OF A TRACK
FORECASTED A LITTLE MORE SOUTH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS TREND. HABANA
IS HARDLY MOVING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY WEAK AND CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FLOWS, SHOWING A SLOW DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. FROM MONDAY
ONWARDS, MOST OF THE GUIDELINES CONFIRM A RESUMPTION OF THE GLOBAL
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE WEST, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OF LOW TO MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE WHICH IS STRENGTHENING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD THEN BE IN THE PROCESS OF
FILLING, WILL CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE. THE RSMC'S TRACK IS BASED ON A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WHOSE AVERAGE TRACK
SLIDES MORE OR LESS TO THE SOUTH DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE EXIT
OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE.

IN TERMS OF FORECAST, WE KEEP THE SAME PHILOSOPHY. THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT REALLY OPTIMAL ANYMORE AND CONTINUE TO BE MORE AND
MORE UNFAVORABLE IN THE NEXT HOURS: PRESENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE
SHEAR BRINGING DRY AIR GRADUALLY TO THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM AND WEAK
DISPLACEMENT LEAVING A LIMITED OCEANIC POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTING AN
ADDITIONAL CONDITION TO THE RAPID WEAKENING OF HABANA. ON MONDAY, AS
IT RESUMES ITS OVERALL WESTWARD MOTION, HABANA WILL ALREADY BE IN THE
VERY WEAKENED STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AND WILL CONTINUE TO
EVOLVE INTO A FILLING DEPRESSION AND THEN A REMNANT LOW.

FROM NEXT TUESDAY, THE REMNANT LOW OF HABANA SHOULD APPROACH THE
RODRIGUES ISLAND WITHOUT ANY PARTICULAR CONSEQUENCE IN TERMS OF WINDS
OR RAIN. EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY HABANA HAS ALREADY PROPAGATED TO
THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS AND WILL LAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 140003
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/03/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 042/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 14/03/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (HABANA) 976 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 70.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/14 AT 12 UTC:
21.7 S / 70.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 65 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/15 AT 00 UTC:
21.8 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 50 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 131828
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 41/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 13/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.5 S / 70.1 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 160 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/03/2021 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 295 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 75

24H: 14/03/2021 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SO: 285 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 95

36H: 15/03/2021 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 270 SO: 285 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 95

48H: 15/03/2021 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 240 SO: 295 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 35

60H: 16/03/2021 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 55

72H: 16/03/2021 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/03/2021 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0+ CI=4.5

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN CENTRE NOYE
DANS LA MASSE S'EST MAINTENUE, AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI ONT
FLUCTUES. PEU OU PAS DE DONNEES MICRO-ONDES ET DIFFUSIOMETRE AFIN
D'AIDER A L'ANALYSE DE HABANA. LA PASSE SSMI-S DE 1351UTC MONTRAIT
UNE BONNE RESISTANCE DE LA CIRCULATION AU TILTING, MALGRE DES
CONDITIONS DE CISAILLEMENT DEVENANT DE PLUS EN PLUS DEFAVORABLES
(CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST) DANS LE SECTEUR SUD ET AVEC
L'ARRIVEE DE L'AIR SEC DANS LE SECTEUR OUEST ET NORD DE HABANA. LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE HABANA REFLETE BIEN CES CONDITIONS ET UNE
ANALYSE DVORAK DE 4.0+ PEUT ETRE FAITE, LAISSANT PAR INERTIE UN CI DE
4.5. PAR CONSEQUENT, DES VENTS DE 70KT PEUVENT ETRE ESTIMES, LAISSANT
HABANA ENCORE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL MAIS SUR LE DECLIN.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PREVISION DU CMRS
: HABANA SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD EN BORDURE OUEST DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DANS LA FAIBLESSE GENEREE PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN
TALWEG PLUS AU SUD. LE SYSTEME VA FORTEMENT RALENTIR SON MOUVEMENT
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS TRES
FAIBLES ET CONTRADICTOIRES, CONDUISANT A UN DEPLACEMENT QUASI-NUL
(LENTE DERIVE VERS L'EST). A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LA PLUPART DES
GUIDANCES CONFIRMENT UNE REPRISE DU MOUVEMENT VERS LE NORD-OUEST PUIS
L'OUEST, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCE AU SUD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME, QUI
DEVRAIT ALORS ETRE EN VOIE DE COMBLEMENT, VA CONTINUER SON
DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUR LA FACADE NORD DE
CETTE DORSALE. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS SE BASE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE
LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE, LA PREVISION PRECEDENTE EST REVUE
A LA BAISSE. LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES NE SE SONT VRAIMENT
PLUS OPTIMALES ET VONT DEVENIR DE PLUS EN PLUS DEFAVORABLES DANS LES
PROCHAINES HEURES AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE BIEN
ETABLI, APPORTANT DE L'AIR SEC GRADUELLEMENT AU COEUR DU SYSTEME. DE
PLUS, SON FAIBLE DEPLACEMENT VA LAISSER UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE TRES
LIMITE APPORTANT UNE CONDITION SUPPLEMENTAIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSMENT
RAPIDE DE HABANA. LUNDI, LORS DE SA REPRISE DE DEPLACEMENT GLOBAL
VERS L'OUEST, HABANA SERA DEJA AU STADE TRES AFFAIBLI DE TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE ET CONTINUERA D'EVOLUER EN DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
PUIS DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE.

A PARTIR DE MARDI PROCHAIN, LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL D'HABANA DEVRAIT
S'APPROCHER DE L'ILE RODRIGUES SANS CONSEQUENCE PARTICULIERE EN
TERMES DE VENTS OU DE PLUIE. LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE D'EST GENEREE PAR
HABANA S'EST DEJA PROPAGEE JUSQU'AUX ILES DES MASCAREIGNES ET RESTERA
SENSIBLE EN PREMIERE PARTIE DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 131828
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 41/13/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5 S / 70.1 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 160 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/14 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 295 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 75

24H: 2021/03/14 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SW: 285 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 95

36H: 2021/03/15 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 270 SW: 285 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 95

48H: 2021/03/15 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 240 SW: 295 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 35

60H: 2021/03/16 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/16 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/17 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0+ CI=4.5

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN HAS
CONTINUED, WITH FLUCTUATING CLOUD TOPS. LITTLE OR NO MICROWAVE AND
SCATTEROMETER DATA TO ASSIST IN THE ANALYSIS OF HABANA. THE SSMI-S
PASS OF 1351UTC SHOWED GOOD RESISTANCE OF THE CIRCULATION TO TILTING,
DESPITE SHEAR CONDITIONS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
(WEST-NORTHWEST SHEAR) IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTOR OF HABANA. THE CLOUD
PATTERN OF HABANA REFLECTS WELL THESE CONDITIONS AND A DVORAK
ANALYSIS OF 4.0+ CAN BE MADE, LEAVING BY INERTIA A CI OF 4.5.
THEREFORE, WINDS OF 70KT CAN BE ESTIMATED, LEAVING HABANA STILL IN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BUT ON THE DECLINE.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, NO CHANGE IN THE RSMC FORECAST: HABANA IS MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN
THE WEAKNESS GENERATED BY THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. THE
SYSTEM WILL STRONGLY SLOW DOWN ITS MOVEMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY WEAK AND CONTRADICTORY DIRECTING FLOWS,
LEADING TO A QUASI-STATIONNARY MOVEMENT (SLOW EASTWARDS DRIFT
EXPECTED). FROM MONDAY, MOST NWP MODELS AGREE ABOUT A NORTHWESTWARDS
AND THEN WESTWARDS TRACK, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING
LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH-WEST. THE
SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD THEN BE IN THE PROCESS OF FILLING, WILL THEN
MOVE IN GENERALLY WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE.
RSMC'S FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS REVISED
DOWNWARDS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE REALLY NOT OPTIMAL
ANYMORE AND WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE UNFAVORABLE IN THE NEXT HOURS
WITH A WELL ESTABLISHED MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR, BRINGING DRY AIR
GRADUALLY TO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. MOREOVER, ITS WEAK DISPLACEMENT
WILL LEAVE A VERY LIMITED OCEANIC POTENTIAL BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL
CONDITION TO THE RAPID WEAKENING OF HABANA. ON MONDAY, AS IT RESUMES
ITS OVERALL WESTWARD MOTION, HABANA WILL ALREADY BE IN THE VERY
WEAKENED STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AND WILL CONTINUE TO
EVOLVE INTO A FILLING DEPRESSION AND THEN A REMNANT LOW.

FROM NEXT TUESDAY, THE REMNANT LOW OF HABANA SHOULD APPROACH THE
RODRIGUES ISLAND WITHOUT ANY PARTICULAR CONSEQUENCE IN TERMS OF WINDS
OR RAIN. EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY HABANA HAS ALREADY PROPAGATED TO
THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS AND WILL LAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 131803
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/03/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 041/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 13/03/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 968 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5 S / 70.1 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/14 AT 06 UTC:
21.6 S / 70.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/14 AT 18 UTC:
21.6 S / 70.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 50 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 131301
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 40/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 13/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.2 S / 70.1 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 160 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/03/2021 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SO: 280 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

24H: 14/03/2021 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SO: 260 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 35

36H: 15/03/2021 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SO: 285 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 35

48H: 15/03/2021 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 240 SO: 305 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SO: 175 NO: 85

60H: 16/03/2021 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SO: 250 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 35

72H: 16/03/2021 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 140 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/03/2021 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 20 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 18/03/2021 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5- CI=4.5

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, HABANA A GARDE UNE CONFIGURATION A
CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE, AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI SE SONT
RECHAUFFES. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE AMSR2 DE 0847Z MONTRE UN MUR DE L'OEIL
BIEN CONSOLIDA MAIS QUI RESTE AFFAIBLI DANS LE QUART NORD-EST. LA
COMPARAISON ENTRE L'IMAGE 37GHZ ET 91GHZ NE PLAIDE PAS ENCORE
TOTALEMENT POUR UN TILT DU COEUR CHAUD D'ALTITUDE SOUS L'EFFET DE LA
CONTRAINTE DE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI OPERE
ACTUELLEMENT AU SEIN DU SYSTEME.
L'INTENSITE FINALE ESTIMEE A 80 KT ET LEGEREMENT SUPERIEURE A
L'ESTIMATION DVORAK SUBJECTIVE. CETTE ESTIMATION EST BASEE SUR UN
CONSENSUS DES DERNIERES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES (DONNEES AMSU, ATMS ET
SSMIS).

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, HABANA SE DEPLACE MAINTENANT SUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE MERIDIENNE EN BORDURE OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET
A L'APLOMB D'UNE FAIBLESSE GENEREE PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG PLUS AU
SUD. LE CYCLONE DEVRAIT ENSUITE FORTEMENT RALENTIR SON MOUVEMENT CE
SOIR. DIMANCHE, LES FLUX DIRECTEURS SERONT TRES FAIBLES ET
CONTRADICTOIRES, CONDUISANT A UN DEPLACEMENT QUASI-NUL (LENTE DERIVE
VERS L'EST) DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LA PLUPART DES GUIDANCES
CONFIRMENT UNE REPRISE DU MOUVEMENT VERS LE NORD-OUEST PUIS L'OUEST,
SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCE AU SUD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME, QUI DEVRAIT
ALORS ETRE EN VOIE DE COMBLEMENT, VA ENSUITE SE DEPLACER EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUR LA FACADE NORD DE CETTE DORSALE. LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS SE BASE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
SE SONT PLUS OPTIMALES ET VONT DEVENIR DE PLUS EN PLUS DEFAVORABLES
AU COURS DU WEEK-END AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE BIEN
ETABLI, APPORTANT DE L'AIR SEC GRADUELLEMENT AU COEUR DU SYSTEME
VENANT ERODER PUIS DETRUIRE LE COEUR CHAUD D'ALTITUDE. EN DEBUT DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT RESTANT DEFAVORABLE EN
RAISON DE L'AIR SEC, HABANA DEVRAIT DEVENIR UN SYSTEME DE FAIBLE A
TRES FAIBLE INTENSITE.

A PARTIR DE MARDI PROCHAIN, LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL D'HABANA DEVRAIT
S'APPROCHER DE L'ILE RODRIGUES SANS CONSEQUENCE PARTICULIERE EN
TERMES DE VENTS OU DE PLUIE. LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE D'EST GENEREE PAR
HABANA S'EST DEJA PROPAGEE JUSQU'AUX ILES DES MASCAREIGNES ET RESTERA
SENSIBLE EN PREMIERE PARTIE DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 131301
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 40/13/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 70.1 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 160 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/14 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/14 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 35

36H: 2021/03/15 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 35

48H: 2021/03/15 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 240 SW: 305 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 85

60H: 2021/03/16 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 250 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 35

72H: 2021/03/16 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 140 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/17 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 20 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2021/03/18 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5- CI=4.5

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, HABANA HAS MAINTAINED AN EMBEDDED CENTER
PATTERN WITH CLOUD TOPS THAT HAVE WARMED UP. THE 0847Z AMSR2
MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOWED A WELL CONSOLIDATED EYEWALL BUT STILL
WEAKENED IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART. THE COMPARISON BETWEEN THE 37GHZ
AND 91GHZ IMAGE DOES NOT YET FULLY ARGUE FOR A TILT OF THE UPPER WARM
CORE DUE TO THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR CONSTRAINT CURRENTLY OPERATING
WITHIN THE SYSTEM. THE FINAL INTENSITY ESTIMATED AT 80 KT IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE. THIS ESTIMATE IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES (AMSU, ATMS AND SSMIS
DATA).

HABANA IS NOW MOVING ON A MERIDIAN TRACK AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IN FRONT OF A WEAKNESS GENERATED BY THE PASSAGE
OF A TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. HABANA'S MOVEMENT SHOUD SLOW DOWN ON THIS
EVENING, AND THEN ON SUNDAY, THE STEERING FLOWS WILL BECOME VERY
WEAK, LEADING TO A QUASI-STATIONNARY MOVEMENT (SLOW EASTWARDS DRIFT
EXPECTED). FROM MONDAY, MOST NWP MODELS AGREE ABOUT A NORTHWESTWARDS
AND THEN WESTWARDS TRACK, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING
LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH-WEST. THE
SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD THEN BE IN THE PROCESS OF FILLING, WILL THEN
MOVE IN GENERALLY WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE.
RSMC'S FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE
ALREADY DETERIORATED AND WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE UNFAVORABLE DURING
THE WEEKEND WITH A WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR, BRINGING
DRY AIR GRADUALLY TO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM, ERODING THEN DESTROYING
THE UPPER LEVELS WARM CORE. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, IN A STILL
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO DRY AIR, HABANA SHOULD BECOME A WEAK
TO VERY WEAK SYSTEM.

FROM NEXT TUESDAY, THE REMNANT OF HABANA SHOULD APPROACH THE
RODRIGUES ISLAND WITHOUT ANY PARTICULAR CONSEQUENCE IN TERMS OF WINDS
OR RAIN. EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY HABANA HAS ALREADY PROPAGATED TO
THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS AND WILL LAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 131221
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/03/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 040/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 13/03/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 70.1 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/14 AT 00 UTC:
21.6 S / 70.2 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/14 AT 12 UTC:
21.6 S / 70.5 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 130640
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 39/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 13/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.7 S / 70.3 E
(VINGT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 955 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/03/2021 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SO: 270 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 14/03/2021 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SO: 260 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 14/03/2021 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SO: 260 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 35

48H: 15/03/2021 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 270 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 75

60H: 15/03/2021 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 230 SO: 260 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 35

72H: 16/03/2021 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/03/2021 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

120H: 18/03/2021 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5 CI=5.5

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'HABANA A CLAIREMENT PERDU DE SA SUPERBE
PAR RAPPORT A HIER. LE CENTRE RESTE NOYE SOUS LA MASSE MAIS UN POINT
CHAUD, VISIBLE A LA FOIS EN IMAGERIE IR ET VIS, APPARAIT PAR MOMENT.
L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDE DE CE MATIN MONTRE UN MUR DE L'OEIL AFFAIBLI
DANS SA PARTIE NORD. LA COMPARAISON DES IMAGES A 37 ET 85-91 GHZ
SUGGERE UNE INCLINAISON VERS LE SUD AVEC L'ALTITUDE DU VORTEX
CYCLONIQUE SOUS L'EFFET PROBABLE DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT.
L'INTENSITE FINALE EST ESTIMEE A 90 KT EN SE BASANT SUR L'ESTIMATION
DVORAK SUBJECTIVE. UNE PASS SMOS A RELEVE 84 KT EN VENT MAX A 0122Z
CE MATIN.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, HABANA SE DEPLACE MAINTENANT SUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE MERIDIENNE EN BORDURE OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET
A L'APLOMB D'UNE FAIBLESSE GENEREE PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG PLUS AU
SUD. LE CYCLONE DEVRAIT ENSUITE FORTEMENT RALENTIR SON MOUVEMENT CE
SOIR. DIMANCHE, LES FLUX DIRECTEURS SERONT TRES FAIBLES ET
CONTRADICTOIRES, CONDUISANT A UN DEPLACEMENT QUASI-NUL (LENTE DERIVE
VERS L'EST) DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LA PLUPART DES GUIDANCES
CONFIRMENT UNE REPRISE DU MOUVEMENT VERS LE NORD-OUEST PUIS L'OUEST,
SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCE AU SUD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME, QUI DEVRAIT
ALORS ETRE EN VOIE DE COMBLEMENT, VA ENSUITE SE DEPLACER EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUR LA FACADE NORD DE CETTE DORSALE. LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS SE BASE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
SE SONT DEJA DEGRADEES ET VONT DEVENIR DE PLUS EN PLUS DEFAVORABLES
AU COURS DU WEEK-END AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE BIEN
ETABLI, APPORTANT DE L'AIR SEC GRADUELLEMENT AU COEUR DU SYSTEME
VENANT ERODER PUIS DETRUIRE LE COEUR CHAUD D'ALTITUDE. LA PRESENTE
PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST UN PEU PLUS AGRESSIVE QUE LA PRECEDENTE
POUR LE RYTHME D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT SUR LES PREMIERES 36H EN ACCORD AVEC
LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES D'INTENSITE. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE,
DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT RESTANT DEFAVORABLE EN RAISON DE L'AIR SEC,
HABANA DEVRAIT DEVENIR UN SYSTEME DE FAIBLE A TRES FAIBLE INTENSITE.

A PARTIR DE MARDI PROCHAIN, LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL D'HABANA DEVRAIT
S'APPROCHER DE L'ILE RODRIGUES SANS CONSEQUENCE PARTICULIERE EN TERME
DE VENTS OU DE PLUIE. LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE D'EST GENEREE PAR HABANA
S'EST DEJA PROPAGEE JUSQU'AUX ILES DES MASCAREIGNES ET RESTERA
SENSIBLE EN PREMIERE PARTIE DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 130640
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 39/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 70.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/13 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/14 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/14 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 35

48H: 2021/03/15 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 270 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 75

60H: 2021/03/15 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 230 SW: 260 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 35

72H: 2021/03/16 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/17 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2021/03/18 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=5.5

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HABANA HAS CLEARLY LOST SOME OF ITS BEAUTY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE CENTER REMAINS EMBEDDED UNDER THE
CONVECTIVE MASS BUT A WARM SPOT, VISIBLE IN BOTH IR AND VIS IMAGERY,
APPEARS AT TIMES. THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY OF THIS MORNING SHOWS A
WEAKENING EYEWALL IN ITS NORTHERN PART. COMPARISON OF THE 37 AND
85-91 GHZ IMAGES SUGGESTS A SOUTHWARD TILT WITH THE ALTITUDE OF THE
CYCLONIC VORTEX UNDER THE PROBABLE EFFECT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
FINAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 90 KT BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATE. A SMOS PASS RECORDED 84 KT IN MAX WIND AT 0122Z THIS
MORNING.

HABANA IS NOW MOVING ON A MERIDIAN TRACK AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IN FRONT OF A WEAKNESS GENERATED BY THE PASSAGE
OF A TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. HABANA'S MOVEMENT SHOUD SLOW DOWN ON THIS
EVENING, AND THEN ON SUNDAY, THE STEERING FLOWS WILL BECOME VERY
WEAK, LEADING TO A QUASI-STATIONNARY MOVEMENT (SLOW EASTWARDS DRIFT
EXPECTED). FROM MONDAY, MOST NWP MODELS AGREE ABOUT A NORTHWESTWARDS
AND THEN WESTWARDS TRACK, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING
LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH-WEST. THE
SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD THEN BE IN THE PROCESS OF FILLING, WILL THEN
MOVE IN GENERALLY WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE.
RSMC'S FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE
ALREADY DETERIORATED AND WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE UNFAVORABLE DURING
THE WEEKEND WITH A WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR, BRINGING
DRY AIR GRADUALLY TO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM, ERODING THEN DESTROYING
THE UPPER LEVELS WARM CORE. THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE WEAKENING RATE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE
FIRST 36H IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LAST INTENSITY GUIDANCE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, IN A STILL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO DRY
AIR, HABANA SHOULD BECOME A WEAK TO VERY WEAK SYSTEM.

FROM NEXT TUESDAY, THE REMNANT OF HABANA SHOULD APPROACH THE
RODRIGUES ISLAND WITHOUT ANY PARTICULAR CONSEQUENCE IN TERMS OF WINDS
OR RAIN. EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY HABANA HAS ALREADY PROPAGATED TO
THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS AND WILL LAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 130616
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/03/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 039/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 13/03/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 70.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 260 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/13 AT 18 UTC:
21.2 S / 70.2 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/14 AT 06 UTC:
21.4 S / 70.4 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 130033
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 38/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 13/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.2 S / 70.4 E
(VINGT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 950 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/03/2021 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 345 SO: 280 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 14/03/2021 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SO: 285 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 14/03/2021 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 270 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 15/03/2021 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SO: 280 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 35

60H: 15/03/2021 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 270 SO: 305 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 85

72H: 16/03/2021 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SO: 230 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/03/2021 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5 CI=5.5+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU
CYCLONE INTENSE HABANA S'EST NETTEMENT DEGRADE, AVEC LA DISPARITION
DE L'OEIL. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (AMSR2 DE 2037Z) MONTRENT
EGALEMENT QUE LE MUR DE L'OEIL DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST EST AFFAIBLI
AVEC UNE STRUCTURE CONVECTIVE GLOBALEMENT ASYMETRIQUE, PLUS PRESENTE
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. CES ELEMENTS TEMOIGNENT DU RENFORCEMENT
DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST. SUR LES IMAGES VAPEUR D'EAU ON
DISTINGUE NETTEMENT LA REMONTEE DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE PAR LE
SUD-OUEST.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, HABANA A COMMENCE A INCURVER VERS LE
SUD-SUD-OUEST EN BORDURE D'UNE FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
GENEREE PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG PLUS AU SUD. LE CYCLONE DEVRAIT
ENSUITE FORTEMENT RALENTIR SON MOUVEMENT CE SOIR. DIMANCHE, LES FLUX
DIRECTEURS SERONT TRES FAIBLES ET CONTRADICTOIRES, CONDUISANT A UN
DEPLACEMENT QUASI-NUL DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LA PLUPART DES
GUIDANCES CONFIRMENT UNE REPRISE DU MOUVEMENT VERS L'OUEST, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE. LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS SE BASE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
VONT DEVENIR DE PLUS EN PLUS DEFAVORABLES AU COURS DU WEEK-END AVEC
UNE HAUSSE PROGRESSIVE DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
APPORTANT DE L'AIR SEC PLUS PRES DU COEUR DU SYSTEME PUIS DETRUISANT
LE COEUR CHAUD D'ALTITUDE. L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT ETRE
PLUS MARQUE DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT RESTANT DEFAVORABLE EN RAISON DE
L'AIR SEC, HABANA DEVRAIT DEVENIR UN SYSTEME DE FAIBLE A TRES FAIBLE
INTENSITE.

A PARTIR DE MARDI PROCHAIN, HABANA POURRAIT S'APPROCHER DE L'ILE
RODRIGUES, MAIS SERA ALORS VRAISEMBLABLEMENT A UN STADE TRES
AFFAIBLI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 130033
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 70.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/13 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 345 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/14 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/14 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 270 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/15 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 35

60H: 2021/03/15 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 270 SW: 305 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 85

72H: 2021/03/16 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SW: 230 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/17 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=5.5+

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE INTENSE CYCLONE
HABANA DECAYED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE DISAPEARANCE OF THE EYE. LAST
MICROWAVE DATA (2037Z AMSR2) SHOW THAT THE NORTH-WESTERN EYEWALL IS
WEAKEND AND THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASYMMETRICALLY LOCATED AROUND
THE CENTER AND MOSTLY PRESENT IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THESE
ELEMENTS CONFIRM THE INCREASE OF THE WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. ON THE WATER VPAOR IMAGES, WE CAN CLEARLY SEE THE RISE
NORTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH-WEST.

HABANA HAS ALREADY STARTED TO BEND SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GENERATED BY A TROUGH PASSING BY
FURTHER SOUTH. HABANA'S MOVEMENT SHOUD SLOW DOWN ON THIS EVENING, AND
THEN ON SUNDAY, THE STEERING FLOWS WILL BECOME VERY WEAK, LEADING TO
A QUASI-STATIONNARY MOVEMENT. FROM MONDAY, MOST NWP MODELS AGREE
ABOUT A WESTWARD TRACK, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. RSMC'S FORECAST IS BASED ON A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE OVER THE WEEK-END, WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MID-TROPOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR, THAT WILL BRING DRY AIR IN THE INNER
CORE THEN DESTROYING THE UPPER WARM CORE. THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER IN THE FOLLOWING HOURS. NEXT WEEK, IN A
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDED BY A DRY AIR MASS, HABANA SHOULD
BECOME A VERY WEAK SYSTEM.

FROM TUESDAY, HABANA COULD TRACK CLOSER TO RODRIGUES ISLAND, BUT IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 130020
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/03/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 038/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 13/03/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 950 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 70.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/13 AT 12 UTC:
21.0 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/14 AT 00 UTC:
21.3 S / 70.2 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 121859
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 37/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 12/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.8 S / 70.9 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/03/2021 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SO: 215 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 13/03/2021 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SO: 215 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 14/03/2021 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 250 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 14/03/2021 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 15/03/2021 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SO: 230 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 130 NO: 65

72H: 15/03/2021 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 185 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/03/2021 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

120H: 17/03/2021 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU
CYCLONE INTENSE HABANA A UN PEU EVOLUE AVEC NOTAMMENT LA REDUCTION
SIGNIFICATIVE DE LA TAILLE DE L'OEIL EN INFRAROUGE. MAIS LES
DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES NE MONTRENT PAS DE DIMINUTION DE LA
TAILLE DE L'OEIL EN 89GHZ (SSMIS DE 1420Z). LES ANALYSES DVORAK
SUBJECTIVES TOURNENT AUTOUR DE 5.5/6.0. LA PASSE SMAP DE 1318Z DONNE
DES VENTS MAXIMAUX DE L'ORDRE DE 120KT (EN BAISSE PAR RAPPORT A CE
MATIN 136KT). LES PASSES ASCAT ET SMOS QUI SOUS-ESTIMENT LES VENT
PLUS FORTS DONNAIENT EGALEMENT RESPECTIVEMENT 68KT ET 95KT. DANS CE
CONTEXTE, L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A UN CONSENSUS AUTOUR DE 105KT.


EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, HABANA A COMMENCE A INCURVER VERS LE
SUD-SUD-OUEST EN BORDURE D'UNE FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
GENEREE PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG PLUS AU SUD. LE CYCLONE DEVRAIT
ENSUITE FORTEMENT RALENTIR SON MOUVEMENT DEMAIN SOIR. DIMANCHE, LES
FLUX DIRECTEURS SERONT TRES FAIBLES ET CONTRADICTOIRES, CONDUISANT A
UN DEPLACEMENT QUASI-NUL DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LA PLUPART
DES GUIDANCES CONFIRMENT UNE REPRISE DU MOUVEMENT VERS L'OUEST, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE. LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS SE BASE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE, JUSQU'A DEMAIN LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES VONT DEVENIR DE PLUS EN PLUS DEFAVORABLE AU COURS
DU WEEK-END AVEC UNE HAUSSE PROGRESSIVE DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE APPORTANT DE L'AIR SEC PLUS PRES DU COEUR DU SYSTEME.
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT ETRE PLUS MARQUE ENTRE SAMEDI ET
DIMANCHE SOIR. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT
RESTANT DEFAVORABLE EN RAISON DE L'AIR SEC, HABANA DEVRAIT DEVENIR UN
SYSTEME DE FAIBLE A TRES FAIBLE INTENSITE.

A PARTIR DE MARDI PROCHAIN, HABANA POURRAIT S'APPROCHER DE L'ILE
RODRIGUES, MAIS SERA ALORS VRAISEMBLABLEMENT A UN STADE TRES
AFFAIBLI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 121859
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 70.9 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/13 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 215 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/13 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 215 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/14 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/14 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2021/03/15 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 230 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 130 NW: 65

72H: 2021/03/15 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 185 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/16 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2021/03/17 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE INTENSE CYCLONE
HABANA EVOLVED A LITTLE BIT WITH NOTABLY THE SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION OF
THE EYE SIZE IN INFRARED. BUT THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGES DO NOT SHOW
ANY DECREASE OF THE EYE SIZE IN 89GHZ (1420Z SSMIS). THE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ANALYSES ARE AROUND 5.5/6.0. THE 1318Z SMAP SWATH GIVES
MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 120KT (DECREASING FROM 136KT THIS MORNING). THE
ASCAT AND SMOS SWATHS WHICH UNDERESTIMATE THE MAXIMUM WINDS ALSO GAVE
RESPECTIVELY 68KT AND 95KT. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT A CONSENSUS AROUND 105KT.

HABANA HAS ALREADY STARTED TO BEND SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GENERATED BY A TROUGH PASSING BY
FURTHER SOUTH. HABANA'S MOVEMENT SHOUD SLOW DOWN ON SATURDAY EVENING,
AND THEN ON SUNDAY, THE STEERING FLOWS WILL BECOME VERY WEAK, LEADING
TO A QUASI-STATIONNARY MOVEMENT. FROM MONDAY, MOST NWP MODELS AGREE
ABOUT A WESTWARD TRACK, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. RSMC'S FORECAST IS BASED ON A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE OVER THE WEEK-END, WITH THE GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MID-TROPOSPHERIC WIND SHEA, THAT WILL BRING DRY AIR NEAR
THE INNER CORE. THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGER BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, IN A UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDED BY A DRY AIR MASS,
HABANA SHOULD BECOME A VERY WEAK SYSTEM.

FROM TUESDAY, HABANA COULD TRACK CLOSER TO RODRIGUES ISLAND, BUT IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 121818
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/03/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 037/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 12/03/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 70.9 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/13 AT 06 UTC:
20.7 S / 70.5 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/13 AT 18 UTC:
21.1 S / 70.3 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 121242
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 36/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 12/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.2 S / 71.2 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/03/2021 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SO: 205 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 13/03/2021 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SO: 195 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 14/03/2021 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 14/03/2021 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 15/03/2021 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45

72H: 15/03/2021 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 205 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/03/2021 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 30 NO: 55

120H: 17/03/2021 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5+;CI=6.0+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU
CYCLONE INTENSE HABANA S'EST LEGEREMENT DEGRADEE, AVEC UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA CONVECTION DANS LE QUADRANT OUEST DU SYSTEME,
CE QUI SEMBLE TRADUIRE LA MISE EN PLACE D'UNE LEGERE CONTRAINTE
CISAILLEE D'OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET UNE PETITE INFLUENCE DE
L'AIR SEC PRESENT EN PERIPHERIE OUEST DU SYSTEME. LES ANALYSES DVORAK
MOYENNEES SUR LES 3 DERNIERES HEURES AVOISINENT 5.5 A 6.0. PAR
INERTIE, L'INTENSITE D'HABANA EST MAINTENUE A 105KT, EN PHASE
EGALEMENT AVEC LES ANALYSES SATCON.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, D'ICI DEMAIN, HABANA CONTINUE DE SE
DEPLACER VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS LE SUD EN BORDURE D'UNE FAIBLESSE DE
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE GENEREE PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG PLUS AU
SUD. LE CYCLONE DEVRAIT ENSUITE FORTEMENT RALENTIR SON MOUVEMENT
SAMEDI SOIR. DIMANCHE, LES FLUX DIRECTEURS SERONT TRES FAIBLES ET
CONTRADICTOIRES, CONDUISANT A UN DEPLACEMENT QUASI-NUL DU SYSTEME. A
PARTIR DE LUNDI, LA PLUPART DES GUIDANCES CONFIRMENT UNE REPRISE DU
MOUVEMENT VERS L'OUEST, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS SE BASE SUR UN COMPROMIS
ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES, EN PARTICULIER IFS ET
GFS.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE, JUSQU'A DEMAIN LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT GLOBALEMENT FAVORABLES, MALGRE UNE HAUSSE
PROGRESSIVE DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE APPORTANT DE L'AIR
SEC PLUS PRES DU COEUR DU SYSTEME. CELA DEVRAIT LAISSER HABANA ENCORE
AU STADE DE CYCLONE INTENSE MAIS AVEC UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF.
ENTRE DIMANCHE ET LUNDI, CETTE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC SE RENFORCERA,
AFFAIBLISSANT ALORS PLUS RADICALEMENT HABANA. DE PLUS, SON
DEPLACEMENT TRES LENT ENTRE SAMEDI SOIR ET LUNDI MATIN, LE LAISSANT
SUR LA MEME ZONE, DEVRAIT REDUIRE LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET
CONTRIBUER AUSSI A SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT RESTANT TROP SEC, HABANA DEVRAIT
DEVENIR UN SYSTEME DE FAIBLE A TRES FAIBLE INTENSITE.

A PARTIR DE MARDI PROCHAIN, HABANA POURRAIT S'APPROCHER DE L'ILE
RODRIGUES, MAIS SERA ALORS VRAISEMBLABLEMENT A UN STADE TRES
AFFAIBLI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 121242
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 71.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/13 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/13 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 195 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/14 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/14 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/15 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45

72H: 2021/03/15 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 205 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/16 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 30 NW: 55

120H: 2021/03/17 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5+;CI=6.0+

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, CYCLONE HABANA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS SLIGHTLY
DETERIORATED, WITH CONVECTION SHOWING A WEAKNESS ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE CDO. THIS COULD BE LINKED WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-TROPOSPHERIC
WIND SHEAR AS WELL AS DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM STARTING TO
ERODE ITS WESTERN FLANK. DVORAK ANALYSES HAVE FLUCTUATED BETWEEN 5.5
AND 6.0. BY INERTIA, HABANA'S INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105KT, WHICH ALSO
MATCHES WITH SATCON ANALYSIS.

UNTIL TOMORROW HABANA WILL CONTINUE ON ITS SOUTHWESTWARD THEN
SOUTHWARD TRACK, AHEAD OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
GENERATED BY A TROUGH PASSING BY FURTHER SOUTH. HABANA'S MOVEMENT
SHOUD SLOW DOWN ON SATURDAY EVENING, AND THEN ON SUNDAY STEERING
FLOWS WILL BECOME VERY WEAK, LEADING TO QUASI-STATIONNARY MOVEMENT.
FROM MONDAY, MOST NWP MODELS AGREE ABOUT A WESTWARD TRACK, UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. RSMC'S
FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE, NAMELY IFS AND GFS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE UNTIL TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH THE GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MID-TROPOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO BRING DRY AIR NEAR THE
CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLOW WEAKENING OF HABANA,
WHICH SHOULD STAY AT INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING. BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL INCREASE,
THUS LEADING TO HABANA'S DRAMATIC WEAKENING. MOREOVER, ITS VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT LEAVING IT OVER THE SAME AREA SHOULD REDUCE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL AND CONTRIBUTE A LITTLE MORE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, CHOKED BY A DRY ENVIRONMENT, HABANA SHOULD
BECOME A VERY WEAK SYSTEM.

FROM TUESDAY, HABANA COULD TRACK CLOSER TO RODRIGUES ISLAND, BUT IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 121206
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/03/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 036/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 12/03/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 71.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 110 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/13 AT 00 UTC:
20.0 S / 70.5 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/13 AT 12 UTC:
20.9 S / 70.2 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 120713
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 35/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 12/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.8 S / 71.7 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/03/2021 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 13/03/2021 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 285 SO: 205 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 13/03/2021 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 215 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 14/03/2021 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 14/03/2021 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 45

72H: 15/03/2021 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 215 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/03/2021 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 325 SO: 305 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 0

120H: 17/03/2021 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=6.0+;CI=6.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, HABANA A GARDE UNE BELLE
CONFIGURATION EN OEIL MAIS AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI SE SONT UN
PEU RECHAUFFES. UNE PASSE SMAP A 0111Z INDIQUE DES VENTS MAX A 136KT,
CE QUI LAISSE SUPPOSER QU'HABANA A POTENTIELLEMENT ATTEINT LE STADE
DE CTTI TEMPORAIREMENT (A CONFIRMER EN REANALYSE A POSTERIORI). LES
ANALYSES DVORAK MOYENNEES SUR LES 3 DERNIERES HEURES AVOISINENT 6.0+.
L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 0131Z MONTRE UN COEUR BIEN COMPACT. LES
BANDES EXTERIEURES NE MONTRENT PLUS DE SIGNES EVIDENTS D'ERC. DANS
L'ATTENTE DE NOUVELLES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES, L'INTENSITE D'HABANA EST
MISE EN COHERENCE AVEC L'ANALYSE DVORAK ET AINSI FIXEE A 105KT, CE
QUI CORRESPOND AUSSI AUX ANALYSES OBJECTIVES SATCON.

A COURTE ECHEANCE, HABANA CONTINUE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST,
VERS UNE FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE GENEREE PAR LE PASSAGE
D'UN TALWEG PLUS AU SUD. HABANA DEVRAIT ENSUITE VIRER VERS LE SUD
D'ICI SAMEDI TOUT EN RALENTISSANT. DIMANCHE, AVEC L'ELOIGNEMENT DU
TALWEG VERS LE SUD-EST, LES FLUX DIRECTEURS DEVIENNENT TRES FAIBLES
ET OPPOSES, CONDUISANT A UN DEPLACEMENT TRES LENT ET ERRATIQUE DU
SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, MALGRE QUELQUES DIFFERENCES LIEES AU
TIMING DE CETTE PHASE DE QUASI-STAGNATION, LA PLUPART DES GUIDANCES
CONFIRMENT UNE REPRISE DU MOUVEMENT VERS L'OUEST, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE QUI REPREND LA MAIN.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE, TOUTES LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES SONT PRESENTES POUR PERMETTRE
A HABANA DE MAINTENIR UNE FORTE INTENSITE AU MOINS JUSQU'A SAMEDI
MATIN. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE COMMENCERA A APPORTER DE L'AIR SEC PRES DU COEUR DU
SYSTEME. CETTE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC SE RENFORCERA DIMANCHE ET SURTOUT
LUNDI, AFFAIBLISSANT RADICALEMENT HABANA. DE PLUS, SA TRAJECTOIRE
ERRATIQUE, LE LAISSANT SUR LA MEME ZONE, DEVRAIT PARTICIPER A REDUIRE
LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET CONTRIBUER UN PEU PLUS A AFFAIBLIR LE
SYSTEME. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT RESTANT
SEC, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT GARDER UNE FAIBLE INTENSITE.

A PARTIR DE MARDI PROCHAIN, HABANA POURRAIT S'APPROCHER DE L'ILE
RODRIGUES, MAIS A UN STADE TRES AFFAIBLI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 120713
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/12 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 71.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/12 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/13 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/13 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/14 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/14 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45

72H: 2021/03/15 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 215 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/16 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0

120H: 2021/03/17 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0+;CI=6.5-

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, HABANA HAS KEPT A NEAT EYE PATTERN DESPITE
SLIGHTLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS. A SMAP SWATH AT 0111Z INDICATES MAX
WINDS UP TO 136KT, WHICH SUGGESTS THAT HABANA COULD HAVE TEMPORARILY
REACHED THE STAGE OF VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE (THIS WILL NEED
LATER CONFIRMATION FROM REANALYSIS). DVORAK ANALYSES OVER THE LAST 3
HOURS AVERAGE AROUND 6.0+. THE SSMIS 0131Z MW IMAGE SHOWS A COMPACT
INNER CORE. EXTERNAL RAINBANDS DON'T SHOW OBVIOUS SIGNS OF AN ONGOING
ERC ANYMORE. WHILE WAITING FOR NEW MW DATA, HABANA'S INTENSITY IS SET
AT 105KT, IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATCON ANALYSIS.

IN THE SHORT RUN, HABANA CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GENERATED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. HABANA SHOULD THEN TURN SOUTHWARD BY SATURDAY
WHILE SLOWING DOWN. ON SUNDAY, WITH THE TROUGH MOVING AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST, STEERING FLOWS BECOME VERY WEAK AND OPPOSITE, LEADING TO A
VERY SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. FROM MONDAY, DESPITE
ALONG-TRACK DISPERSION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TIMING OF THIS
QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE, MOST NWP MODELS NOW AGREE ABOUT A WESTWARD
MOVEMENT, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-TROPOSPHERE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH.

NO CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST : ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR HABANA TO MAINTAIN ITS HIGH INTENSITY AT LEAST UNTIL
SATURDAY MORNING. FROM SATURDAY, AN INCREASE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE
SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO BRING DRY AIR NEAR THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LEADING TO
HABANA'S DRAMATIC WEAKENING. MOREOVER, ITS ERRATIC TRACK, LEAVING IT
OVER THE SAME AREA, SHOULD HELP TO REDUCE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND
CONTRIBUTE A LITTLE MORE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, IMMERSED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP A
WEAK INTENSITY.

FROM TUESDAY, HABANA COULD MOVE CLOSE TO RODRIGUES ISLAND, BUT IT
SHOULD THEN BE A VERY WEAK SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 120609
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/03/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 035/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 12/03/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 71.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/12 AT 18 UTC:
19.6 S / 71.0 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/13 AT 06 UTC:
20.3 S / 70.5 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 120030
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 34/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 12/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.5 S / 72.4 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.5/6.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/03/2021 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 13/03/2021 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 13/03/2021 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SO: 270 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 14/03/2021 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 14/03/2021 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

72H: 15/03/2021 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 260 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/03/2021 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 230 SO: 250 NO: 75

120H: 17/03/2021 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, L'ERC SE POURSUIT MODULANT LA
CONFIGURATION EN OEIL D'HABANA AVEC DE NOMBREUSES FLUCTUATIONS. LES
FAIBLESSES DANS L'ANNEAU CONVECTIF SONT BIEN NOTABLES LAISSANT TOUT
DE MEME UNE ANALYSE DVORAK MOYENNEE SUR 3 HEURES DE 6.5- IDENTIQUE A
LA VALEUR PRECEDENTE. AU COURS DE L'ERC, L'ESTIMATION DE VENTS NE
PEUT PLUS VRAIMENT SUIVRE CELLE DE DVORAK ET PEUT ETRE ABAISSEE A
100KT, LA STRUCTURE DE VENT DE L'ANNEAU EXTERIEUR DEVENANT DE PLUS EN
PLUS PREDOMINANTE. IL FAUDRA ATTENDRE QUE LA STRUCTURE DE VENT SE
SOIT STABILISEE POUR VOIR UNE PROCHAINE INTENSIFICATION DE HABANA AU
STADE SUPERIEUR. POUR LE MOMENT, HABANA RESTE AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE, AVEC DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 100KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE, SAUF EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE AVEC UNE ORIENTATION PLUS OUEST. A COURTE ECHEANCE, HABANA
CONTINUE DONC SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, VERS UNE FAIBLESSE DE
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE GENEREE PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG PLUS AU
SUD. HABANA DEVRAIT ENSUITE VIRER VERS LE SUD D'ICI SAMEDI TOUT EN
RALENTISSANT. DIMANCHE, AVEC L'ELOIGNEMENT DU TALWEG VERS LE SUD-EST,
LES FLUX DIRECTEURS DEVIENNENT TRES FAIBLES ET OPPOSES, CONDUISANT A
UN DEPLACEMENT TRES LENT ET ERRATIQUE DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE LUNDI,
UNE FORTE DISPERSION EST PRESENTE SUR LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES, MAIS
LES PLUS RECENTES INDIQUENT UNE TENDANCE CROISSANTE A UN NOUVEAU
DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE QUI REPREND LA MAIN. LA PREVISION
ACTUELLE DU CMRS SUIT CE SCENARIO, MAIS AVEC UNE CONFIANCE QUI RESTE
MODESTE A CES LONGUES ECHEANCES, ALORS QUE L'INTENSITE DE HABANA SERA
FAIBLE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, TOUTES LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES SONT PRESENTES POUR PERMETTRE A HABANA
DE MAINTENIR UNE FORTE INTENSITE AU MOINS JUSQU'A SAMEDI MATIN. L'ERC
EN COURS LAISSE UNE INTENSITE DE HABANA OSCILLANTE, AVEC LA
POSSIBLITE D'ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE DANS
LES PROCHAINES 12/18 HEURES. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI ET PLUS NETTEMENT
SAMEDI, UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE COMMENCERA
A APPORTER DE L'AIR SEC PRES DU COEUR DU SYSTEME. CETTE INTRUSION
D'AIR SEC SERA BIEN PRESENTE DIMANCHE ET SURTOUT LUNDI DANS LE COEUR
DU SYSTEME, AFFAIBLISSANT RADICALEMENT HABANA. DE PLUS, SA
TRAJECTOIRE ERRATIQUE, LE LAISSANT SUR LA MEME ZONE, DEVRAIT
PARTICIPER A REDUIRE LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET CONTRIBUER UN PEU PLUS
A AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, PLONGE DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT SEC, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT GARDER UNE FAIBLE INTENSITE.
DANS LA PREVISION ACTUELLE, IL POURRAIT S'APPROCHER DE RODRIGUES,
MAIS A UN STADE DE DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT OU RESIDUELLE DE FAIBLE
INTENSITE.

DURANT LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS, HABANA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACES POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 120030
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/12 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 72.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/12 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/13 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/13 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/14 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/14 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/15 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/16 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 230 SW: 250 NW: 75

120H: 2021/03/17 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.5-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE ERC CONTINUES MODULATING THE HABANA
EYE PATTERN WITH MANY FLUCTUATIONS. THE WEAKNESSES IN THE CONVECTIVE
RING ARE QUITE NOTICEABLE LEAVING A 3 HOURS AVERAGE DVORAK ANALYSIS
OF 6.5- IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS VALUE. DURING THE ERC, THE WIND
ESTIMATE CANNOT REALLY FOLLOW THE DVORAK ONE AND CAN BE LOWERED TO
100KT, THE WIND STRUCTURE OF THE OUTER RING BECOMING MORE AND MORE
DOMINANT. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WIND STRUCTURE HAS
STABILIZED TO SEE A NEXT INTENSIFICATION OF HABANA AT THE UPPER
STAGE. FOR NOW, HABANA REMAINS IN THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE,
WITH WINDS AROUND 100KT.

NO CHANGE IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK, EXCEPT AT THE END OF THE
COURSE WITH A MORE WESTERLY ORIENTATION. AT SHORT TIME, HABANA
CONTINUES ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST, TOWARDS A WEAKNESS OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GENERATED BY THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH.
HABANA SHOULD THEN TURN SOUTH BY SATURDAY WHILE SLOWING DOWN. ON
SUNDAY, WITH THE TROUGH MOVING AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST, THE STEERING
FLOWS BECOME VERY WEAK AND OPPOSITE, LEADING TO A VERY SLOW AND
ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. FROM MONDAY, A STRONG DISPERSION IS
PRESENT ON THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE, BUT THE MOST RECENT ONES INDICATE
AN INCREASING TENDENCY TO A NEW DISPLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS
THE WEST OR EVEN SOUTH-WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OF LOW TROPOSPHERE WHICH TAKES AGAIN THE HAND. THE CURRENT RSMC
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO, BUT WITH A CONFIDENCE THAT REMAINS
MODEST ON THESE LONG TIME SCALES WHILE THE INTENSITY OF HABANA WILL
BE LOW.

NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY, ALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENT TO ALLOW HABANA TO MAINTAIN A HIGH INTENSITY AT LEAST UNTIL
SATURDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT ERC LEAVES HABANA'S INTENSITY
OSCILLATING, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING THE STAGE OF A VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12/18 HOURS. FROM FRIDAY AND
MORE CLEARLY ON SATURDAY, AN INCREASE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR
WILL BEGIN TO BRING DRY AIR NEAR THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT ON SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY IN THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM, WEAKENING RADICALLY HABANA.
MOREOVER, ITS ERRATIC TRACK, LEAVING IT ON THE SAME AREA, SHOULD HELP
TO REDUCE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND CONTRIBUTE A LITTLE MORE TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, IMMERSED IN A DRY
ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP A WEAK INTENSITY. IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST, IT COULD APPROACH RODRIGUES, BUT AT A STAGE OF DEPRESSION
FILLING OR REMNANT LOW INTENSITY.

OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LAND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 120006
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/03/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 034/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 12/03/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 72.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 110 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/12 AT 12 UTC:
19.1 S / 71.8 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/13 AT 00 UTC:
19.9 S / 71.3 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 111838
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 33/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 11/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.0 S / 73.1 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.5/6.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 939 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 60 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/03/2021 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 12/03/2021 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 13/03/2021 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 13/03/2021 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SO: 250 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 14/03/2021 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SO: 270 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 14/03/2021 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2021 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SO: 270 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 165 NO: 85

120H: 16/03/2021 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL D'HABANA
EST RESTEE IMPRESSIONNANTE MAIS A PRESENTE DE NOMBREUSES FLUCTUATIONS
QUE CE SOIENT EN TEMPERATURE OU EN STRUCTURE. ON A PU NOTER DES
FAIBLESSES DANS L'ANNEAU CONVECTIF PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE SECTEUR
SUD-OUEST. IL SEMBLE QUE LA STRUCTURE DE VENT SE SOIT COMPACTEE
PROVOQUANT CES FLUCTUATIONS ET INDUISANT UNE ANALYSE DVORAK MOYENNEES
SUR 3 HEURES DE 6.5-, DU FAIT DE QUELQUES FAIBLES VALEURS. LES
DONNEES MICRO-ONDES, NOTAMMENT LA GPM DE 1740UTC, MONTRE UNE
STRUCTURE EN BASSES COUCHES PRESENTANT DEUX ANNEAUX, PLAIDANT POUR UN
NOUVEL ERC. IL FAUDRA ATTENDRE QUE LA STRUCTURE DE VENT SE SOIT
STABILISEE POUR VOIR UNE PROCHAINE INTENSIFICATION DE HABANA AU STADE
SUPERIEUR. POUR LE MOMENT, HABANA RESTE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE, AVEC DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 110KT.

HABANA CONTINUE A INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, VERS UNE
FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE GENEREE PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN
TALWEG PLUS AU SUD. HABANA DEVRAIT ENSUITE VIRER VERS LE SUD D'ICI
SAMEDI TOUT EN RALENTISSANT. DIMANCHE, AVEC L'ELOIGNEMENT DU TALWEG
VERS LE SUD-EST, LES FLUX DIRECTEURS DEVIENNENT TRES FAIBLES ET
OPPOSES, CONDUISANT A UN DEPLACEMENT TRES LENT ET ERRATIQUE DU
SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, UNE FORTE DISPERSION EST PRESENTE SUR LES
DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES, MAIS LES PLUS RECENTES INDIQUENT UNE TENDANCE
CROISSANTE A UN NOUVEAU DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST VOIRE
SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE
TROPOSPHERE QUI REPREND LA MAIN. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE DU CMRS SUIT
CE SCENARIO, MAIS AVEC UNE CONFIANCE QUI RESTE MODESTE A CES LONGUES
ECHEANCES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, TOUTES LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES SONT PRESENTES POUR PERMETTRE A HABANA
DE MAINTENIR UNE FORTE INTENSITE AU MOINS JUSQU'A SAMEDI MATIN. UN
ERC EST EN COURS LAISSANT UNE INTENSITE DE HABANA OSCILLANTE, AVEC LA
POSSIBLITE D'ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE DANS
LES PROCHAINES 12/18 HEURES. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI ET PLUS NETTEMENT
SAMEDI, UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE COMMENCERA
A APPORTER DE L'AIR SEC PRES DU COEUR DU SYSTEME. CETTE INTRUSION
D'AIR SEC SERA BIEN PRESENTE DIMANCHE ET SURTOUT LUNDI AU COEUR DU
SYSTEME, AFFAIBLISSANT RADICALEMENT HABANA. DE PLUS, SA TRAJECTOIRE
ERRATIQUE, LE LAISSANT SUR LA MEME ZONE, DEVRAIT PARTICIPER A REDUIRE
LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET CONTRIBUER UN PEU PLUS A AFFAIBLIR LE
SYSTEME. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, PLONGE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT
SEC, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT GARDER UNE FAIBLE INTENSITE. DANS LA
PREVISION ACTUELLE, IL POURRAIT S'APPROCHER DE RODRIGUES, MAIS A UN
STADE DE DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT OU RESIDUELLE DE FAIBLE INTENSITE.

DURANT LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS, HABANA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACES POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 111838
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 73.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 939 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/12 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/12 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2021/03/13 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/13 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/14 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 270 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/14 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/15 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 85

120H: 2021/03/16 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.5-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE HABANA EYE PATTERN REMAINED IMPRESSIVE
BUT SHOWED MANY FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURE AND STRUCTURE. WEAKNESSES
IN THE CONVECTIVE RING HAVE BEEN NOTED MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
SECTOR. IT SEEMS THAT THE WIND STRUCTURE WAS COMPACTED CAUSING THESE
FLUCTUATIONS AND INDUCING A 3 HOURS AVERAGE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 6.5-,
DUE TO SOME LOW VALUES. THE MICROWAVE DATA, ESPECIALLY THE GPM OF
1740UTC, SHOWS A LOW LAYER STRUCTURE WITH TWO RINGS, ARGUING FOR A
NEW ERC. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WIND STRUCTURE HAS STABILIZED
TO SEE A NEXT INTENSIFICATION OF HABANA IN THE UPPER STAGE. FOR NOW,
HABANA REMAINS IN THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE, WITH WINDS IN
THE 110KT RANGE.

HABANA CONTINUES TO CURVE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST, TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GENERATED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. HABANA SHOULD THEN TURN SOUTH BY SATURDAY WHILE
SLOWING DOWN. ON SUNDAY, WITH THE TROUGH MOVING AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST, THE STEERING FLOWS BECOME VERY WEAK AND OPPOSITE, LEADING
TO A VERY SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. FROM MONDAY, A
STRONG DISPERSION IS PRESENT ON THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE, BUT THE MOST
RECENT ONES INDICATE AN INCREASING TENDENCY TO A NEW DISPLACEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE WEST OR EVEN SOUTH-WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW TROPOSPHERE WHICH TAKES AGAIN THE HAND.
THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO, BUT WITH A
CONFIDENCE THAT REMAINS MODEST ON THESE LONG TIME SCALES.

NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY, ALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENT TO ALLOW HABANA TO MAINTAIN A HIGH INTENSITY AT LEAST UNTIL
SATURDAY MORNING. AN ERC IS IN PROGRESS LEAVING HABANA'S INTENSITY
OSCILLATING, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING THE STAGE OF A VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12/18 HOURS. FROM FRIDAY AND
MORE CLEARLY ON SATURDAY, AN INCREASE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR
WILL BEGIN TO BRING DRY AIR NEAR THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT ON SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY IN THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM, WEAKENING RADICALLY HABANA.
MOREOVER, ITS ERRATIC TRACK, LEAVING IT ON THE SAME AREA, SHOULD HELP
TO REDUCE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND CONTRIBUTE A LITTLE MORE TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, IMMERSED IN A DRY
ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP A WEAK INTENSITY. IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST, IT COULD APPROACH RODRIGUES, BUT AT A STAGE OF DEPRESSION
FILLING OR REMNANT LOW INTENSITY.

OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LAND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 111801
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/03/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 033/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 11/03/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 939 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 73.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 110 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/12 AT 06 UTC:
18.7 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/12 AT 18 UTC:
19.4 S / 71.3 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 111329
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 11/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.8 S / 73.6 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.5/6.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 939 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 60 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/03/2021 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 12/03/2021 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 13/03/2021 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SO: 250 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 13/03/2021 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SO: 250 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 14/03/2021 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SO: 270 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 14/03/2021 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 250 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2021 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SO: 270 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 95

120H: 16/03/2021 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 55

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.5

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL D'HABANA
S'EST MAINTENUE ET A MEME CONTINUE A S'AMELIORER, AVEC DES SOMMETS
NUAGEUX DEVENANT UN PEU PLUS FROIDS (PROCHES DE -80C). L'IMAGERIE
MICRO-ONDES RECENTE (AMSR2 DE 0900Z, SSMI/S DE 1123Z) MONTRE UN
ANNEAU CONVECTIF CENTRAL ASSEZ INTENSE, DEVENU PLUS COMPACT ET
RESSERRE ET DE PLUS EN PLUS FERME PAR RAPPORT AUX PRECEDENTES
MICRO-ONDES, SIGNE D'UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION EN COURS. LES
DERNIERES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES ATTEIGNENT 6.5 EN MOYENNE SUR
LES 3 DERNIERES HEURES. L'INTENSITE D'HABANA A 12UTC EST DONC ESTIMEE
A 110KT.

HABANA A COMMENCE A INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, VERS
UNE FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE GENEREE PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN
TALWEG PLUS AU SUD. HABANA DEVRAIT ENSUITE VIRER VERS LE SUD D'ICI
SAMEDI TOUT EN RALENTISSANT. DIMANCHE, AVEC L'ELOIGNEMENT DU TALWEG
VERS LE SUD-EST, LES FLUX DIRECTEURS DEVIENNENT TRES FAIBLES OU
S'ANNULENT, CONDUISANT A UN DEPLACEMENT TRES LENT ET ERRATIQUE DU
SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, UNE FORTE DISPERSION EST PRESENTE SUR LES
DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES, MAIS LES PLUS RECENTES INDIQUENT UNE TENDANCE
CROISSANTE A UN NOUVEAU DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST A
SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE
TROPOSPHERE. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE DU CMRS EST GLOBALEMENT BASEE SUR
UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DERNIERS RUNS DE GFS ET D'IFS, MAIS AVEC UNE
CONFIANCE QUI RESTE MODESTE SUR LE SCENARIO.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, TOUTES LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
FAVORABLES SONT PRESENTES POUR PERMETTRE A HABANA DE MAINTENIR UNE
FORTE INTENSITE AU MOINS JUSQU'A SAMEDI MATIN. A COURTE ECHEANCE,
GRACE A UN COEUR COMPACT, L'INTENSIFICATION POURRAIT SE POURSUIVRE,
AVEC UNE POSSIBLITE D'ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES
INTENSE DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES, AVANT LA SURVENUE D'UN
EVENTUEL CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL (ERC) QUI RESTE
POSSIBLE MAIS INCERTAINE. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI PUIS PLUS NETTEMENT
DIMANCHE, UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEVRAIT
COMMENCER A APPORTER DE L'AIR SEC PRES DU COEUR DU SYSTEME ET
AFFAIBLIR HABANA. DE PLUS, SA STAGNATION POSSIBLE DIMANCHE, POURRAIT
AUSSI PARTICIPER A L'AFFAIBLIR. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, DANS
DES CONDITIONS MOINS FAVORABLES ET SUR DES EAUX PLUS FROIDES, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT ETRE GARDER UNE FAIBLE INTENSITE. DANS LA PREVISION
ACTUELLE, IL POURRAIT S'APPROCHER A ENVIRON 500 KM DE RODRIGUES MARDI
PROCHAIN, MAIS A UN STADE DE DEPRESSION OU TEMPETE DE TRES FAIBLE
INTENSITE.

DURANT LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS, HABANA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACES POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 111329
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 73.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 939 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/12 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/12 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/13 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/13 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/14 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/14 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/15 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 270 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95

120H: 2021/03/16 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 55

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.5

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, HABANA'S EYE PATTERN HAS KEPT SLIGHTLY
IMPROVING, WITH CLOUD TOPS BECOMING A BIT COLDER (CLOSE TO -80C).
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES (AMSR2 0900Z, SSMI/S 1123Z) SHOW A FAIRLY
INTENSE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE RING, WHICH HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT,
TIGHTER AND A BIT MORE CLOSED THAN ON THE PREVIOUS MICROWAVES, A SIGN
OF A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IN PROGRESS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES
AVERAGED OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS REACH 6.5. HABANA'S INTENSITY AT 12UTC
IS THUS ESTIMATED AT 110KT.

HABANA'S TRACK HAS STARTED TO CURVE TO THE SOUTHWEST, TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GENERATED BY A TROUGH MOVING
FURTHER SOUTH. HABANA SHOULD THEN TURN SOUTHWARD BY SATURDAY WHILE
SLOWING DOWN. ON SUNDAY, WITH THE TROUGH MOVING AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST, STEERING FLOWS BECOME VERY WEAK OR CANCEL EACH OTHER,
LEADING TO A VERY SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. FROM
MONDAY ONWARDS, GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG DISPERSION, BUT THE MOST
RECENT NWP OUTPUT INDICATE AN INCREASING TENDENCY FOR A WEST TO
SOUTH-WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST IS
MAINLY BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND IFS RUNS, BUT
A CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ALL THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENT TO ALLOW HABANA TO MAINTAIN A HIGH INTENSITY AT LEAST UNTIL
SATURDAY MORNING. IN THE SHORT RUN, THANKS TO ITS COMPACT CORE,
INTENSIFICATION COULD CARRY ON WITH A POSSIBILITY TO REACH THE STAGE
OF VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BEFORE THE
POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC), WHICH
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FROM SATURDAY AND MORE CLEARLY ON SUNDAY, AN
INCREASE IN MID-TROPOSPHERE WIND SHEAR SHOULD START TO BRING DRY AIR
NEAR THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM AND WEAKEN HABANA. MOREOVER, ITS POSSIBLE
STALLING TRACK ON SUNDAY, COULD ALSO HELP WEAKEN IT. AT THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK, IN LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND OVER COLDER WATERS,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. IN THE CURRENT FORECAST, IT COULD
APPROACH RODRIGUES ISLAND AT ABOUT 500 KM NEXT TUESDAY, PROBABLY AS A
LOW OR A VERY WEAK STORM.

OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LAND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 111236
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/03/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 032/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 11/03/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 939 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 73.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 110 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/12 AT 00 UTC:
18.3 S / 72.5 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/12 AT 12 UTC:
19.0 S / 71.6 E, MAX WIND = 115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 110700
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 11/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.5 S / 74.3 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 944 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 70 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/03/2021 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 12/03/2021 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 12/03/2021 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 13/03/2021 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 13/03/2021 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 260 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 14/03/2021 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SO: 270 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2021 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 285 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 75

120H: 16/03/2021 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SO: 285 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 120

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, L'OEIL A CONTINUE DE DEVENIR PLUS
NETTE SUR LES DIFFERENTES IMAGERIES CLASSIQUES AVEC LA DISPARITION
DES DERNIERS CIRRUS RESIDUELS DU PREMIER MUR DE L'OEIL MAINTENANT
DISPARU. LA DERNIERE PASSE MICRO-ONDE (SSMIS DE 0145Z) NE SEMBLENT
PLUS MONTRER LA PRESENCE DE LA BANDE EXTERNE EVOQUEE A 00Z. CELA
SEMBLE ETRE CONFIRME PAR LES DERNIERES IMAGES VISIBLES AVEC UN CDO
TRES COMPACT AUTOUR DE L'OEIL. LES DERNIERES ANALYSES DVORAK
SUBJECTIVES SE SITUENT AUTOUR DE 6.0/6.5. PEU APRES 00Z, UNE PASSE
SMAP PROPOSE DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 119KT ALORS QUE DANS LE MEME
TEMPS UNE PASSE SAR RADARSAT2 DONNAIT DES VENT MAXIMAUX PROCHES DE
95KT (EQUIVALENT 10MIN). DEVANT CE SURPRENANT ECART, L'INTENSITE A
ETE FIXEE AUTOUR D'UN CONSENSUS CORRESPONDANT A LA MOYENNE DES
ESTIMATIONS DVORAK A 105KT.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, HABANA COMMENCE A MONTRE DES SIGNES DE SON
CHANGEMENT DE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, VERS UNE FAIBLESSE DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, GENEREE PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG PLUS AU SUD.
HABANA DEVRAIT ENSUITE VIRER VERS LE SUD VENDREDI/SAMEDI. DIMANCHE,
SOUS L'EFFET DE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT, HABANA DEVRAIT RALENTIR SON
DEPLACEMENT POUR COMMENCER UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS ERRATIQUE SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX CONTRAIRES SITUES PLUS BAS EN MOYENNES
TROPOSPHERE. LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR LE DEBUT
DE LA TRAJECTOIRE MAIS UNE DISPERSION IMPORTANTE PERSISTE ENCORE A
PARTIR DE SAMEDI SUR LE AMPLEUR DU RALENTISSEMENT ET SUR SON
EVACUATION OU NON PAR LA SUITE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES. LA
PREVISION ACTUELLE DU CMRS RESTE BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX
MODELES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, TOUTES LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
FAVORABLES SONT PRESENTES POUR PERMETTRE A HABANA DE MAINTENIR UNE
FORTE INTENSITE AU MOINS JUSQU'A SAMEDI. A COURTE ECHEANCE, UN NOVEAU
CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL RESTE POSSIBLE MAIS SA
STRUCTURE COMPACTE ACTUELLE POURRAIT LIMITER CE RISQUE. A PARTIR DE
SAMEDI PUIS PLUS NETTEMENT DIMANCHE, UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE POURRAIT COMMENCER A APPORTER DE L'AIR SEC PRES
DU COEUR DU SYSTEME ET AFFAIBLIR HABANA.

DURANT LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS, HABANA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACES POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 110700
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 74.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 70 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/11 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/12 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/12 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/13 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/13 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/14 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/15 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 285 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75

120H: 2021/03/16 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 285 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0+

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME CLEARER ON
THE DIFFERENT CLASSICAL IMAGERIES WITH THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE
RESIDUAL CIRRUS FROM THE FIRST EYEWALL. THE LAST MICROWAVE SWATH
(0145Z SSMIS) DOES NOT SEEM TO SHOW ANYMORE THE PRESENCE OF AN
EXTERNAL BAND MENTIONED AT 00Z. THIS SEEMS TO BE CONFIRMED BY THE
LAST VISIBLE IMAGES WITH A VERY COMPACT CDO AROUND THE EYE. THE LAST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS ARE AROUND 6.0/6.5. SHORTLY AFTER 00Z, A
SMAP SWATH GAVE MAX WINDS AROUND 119KT WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
RADARSAT2 SAR SWATH GAVE MAX WINDS CLOSE TO 95KT (10MIN EQUIVALENT).
GIVEN THIS SURPRISING DISCREPANCY, THE INTENSITY WAS SET AROUND A
CONSENSUS POSITION CORRESPONDING TO THE AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES AT 105KT.

ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK, HABANA IS BEGINING TO BEND SOUTH-WESTWARD
TOWARDS A WEAK SPOT IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A
TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. HABANA SHOULD THEN TURN SOUTH ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY, AS IT WEAKENS, HABANA SHOULD SLOW DOWN
ITS MOTION TO START A MORE ERRATIC MOTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOWER MID-TROPOSPHERE OPPOSING FLOWS. THE MAIN MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE BEGINNING OF THE TRACK BUT SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
STILL PERSISTS FROM SATURDAY AND BEYOND ON THE EXTENT OF THE SLOWING
DOWN AND ITS EVACUATION OR NOT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES. THE
PRESENT RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN RELIABLE
GUIDANCE

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ALL THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENT TO MAINTAIN HABANA AT STRONG INTENSITY AT LEAST UNTIL
SATURDAY. AT SHORT RANGE, AN ERC IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT ITS
PROBABILITY TO HAPPEN MIGHT BE REDUCE BECAUSE OF ITS TIGHT STRUCTURE.
FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS AND THEN MORE MARKEDLY ON SUNDAY, AN INCREASE
IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR COULD START TO BRING DRY AIR NEAR THE
HEART OF THE SYSTEM AND WEAKEN HABANA.

OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 110620
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/03/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 11/03/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 944 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 74.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/11 AT 18 UTC:
18.0 S / 73.1 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/12 AT 06 UTC:
18.6 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 110033
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 30/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 11/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 74.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/7.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 70 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/03/2021 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 195 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 12/03/2021 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 12/03/2021 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 230 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 13/03/2021 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 250 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 13/03/2021 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SO: 250 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 14/03/2021 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 270 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2021 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 270 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 100

120H: 16/03/2021 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 55

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=6.0 CI=7.0

AU COURS DE LA NUIT, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL A FLUCTUE AUTOUR DE 6.0
AVEC UN OEIL MAL DEFINI ET APPARAISSANT GRADUELLEMENT PLUS LARGE.
L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES MONTRENT QUE LE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR
DE L'OEIL EST TERMINE (IL AURA DURE ENVIRON 24H). UN OEIL UN PEU PLUS
LARGE ET DEJA EN VOIE DE CONTRACTION, EST PRESENT AU SEIN D'UN COEUR
CENTRAL A LA CONSTITUTION A NOUVEAU IMPRESSIONNANTE EN IMAGERIE 89
GHZ. UNE NOUVELLE BANDE EXTERNE SEMBLE EGALEMENT EN VOIE DE
CONSTITUTION CE QUI LAISSE OUVRE LA POSSIBILITE A L'EXECUTION D'UN
NOUVEAU CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL (PROBABILITE DE
DEMARRAGE D'UN CYCLE A 60% D'APRES LES DIAGNOSTIQUES M-PERC DU
CIMSS).
L'INTENSITE FINALE EST ESTIMEE A 100 KT EN LIEN AVEC LE FT DES
ESTIMATIONS DVORAK (ESTIMATIONS FMEE ET ADT).

QUELQUES CHANGEMENTS POUR CE QUI EST DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE
ET PRINCIPALEMENT EN FIN D'ECHEANCE. HABANA SE DEPLACE VERS L'OUEST
SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE AU SUD DU
SYSTEME. A PARTIR D'AUJOURD'HUI, LA PLUPART DES MODELES SUGGERENT UNE
PLONGEE GRADUELLE VERS LE SUD-OUEST VERS UNE FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE, GENEREE PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG PLUS AU SUD. HABANA
DEVRAIT ENSUITE VIRER VERS LE SUD VENDREDI/SAMEDI. DIMANCHE, SOUS
L'EFFET DE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT, HABANA DEVRAIT RALENTIR SON
DEPLACEMENT POUR COMMENCER UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS ERRATIQUE SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX CONTRAIRES SITUES PLUS BAS EN MOYENNES
TROPOSPHERE. LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR LE DEBUT
DE LA TRAJECTOIRE MAIS UNE DISPERSION IMPORTANTE PERSISTE ENCORE A
PARTIR DE SAMEDI SUR LE TIMING DU VIRAGE ET L'EVACUATION OU NON VERS
LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DU CMRS OPTE POUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE ERRATIQUE ET LENTE VERS 20S ET SUIT LA TENDANCE DES
DERNIERES GUIDANCES FIABLES A NE PAS EVACUER LE SYSTEME VERS LES
LATITUDES TEMPEREES EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, TOUTES LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
FAVORABLES SONT PRESENTES POUR PERMETTRE A HABANA DE MAINTENIR UNE
FORTE INTENSITE AU MOINS JUSQU'A SAMEDI. SUR LES COURTES ECHEANCES,
C'EST LA POSSIBILITE D'UN NOUVEL ERC QUI DICTE LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE MAIS SON OCCURENCE DEMANDE ENCORE CONFIRMATION. A PARTIR
DE SAMEDI PUIS PLUS NETTEMENT DIMANCHE, UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE POURRAIT COMMENCER A APPORTER DE L'AIR SEC PRES
DU COEUR DU SYSTEME ET AFFAIBLIR HABANA. CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT D'ABORD
LENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER DANS LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI OU LUNDI EN
JOURNEE (GFS EST UN PEU PLUS TARDIF QUE IFS SUR CET ASPECT).

DURANT LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS, HABANA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACES POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 110033
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 74.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/7.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 70 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/11 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/12 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/12 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/13 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/13 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/14 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 270 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/15 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 100

120H: 2021/03/16 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 55

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0 CI=7.0

OVERNIGHT, THE EYE PATTERN FLUCTUATED AROUND 6.0 WITH A POORLY
DEFINED EYE GRADUALLY APPEARING WIDER. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
THE EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS COMPLETE (IT LASTED ABOUT 24
HOURS). A SLIGHTLY LARGER EYE, ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF CONTRACTING,
IS PRESENT WITHIN A CENTRAL CORE WHICH IS AGAIN IMPRESSIVELY BUILT UP
ON 89 GHZ IMAGERY. A NEW EXTERNAL BAND ALSO SEEMS TO BE IN THE
PROCESS OF CONSTITUTION, WHICH LEAVES OPEN THE POSSIBILITY TO EXECUTE
A NEW ERC (PROBABILITY OF STARTING A CYCLE AT 60% ACCORDING TO THE
M-PERC DIAGNOSTICS OF THE CIMSS).
THE FINAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 100 KT IN RELATION TO THE FT OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES (FMEE AND ADT ESTIMATES).

SOME CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND MAINLY AT THE END OF THE
TRACK. HABANA IS HEADING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TODAY, MOST MODELS SUGGEST A
GRADUEL SOUTH-WESTERLY DIP TOWARDS A WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, GENERATED BY THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. HABANA
SHOULD THEN TURN SOUTH ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY, AS IT WEAKENS,
HABANA SHOULD SLOW DOWN ITS MOTION TO START A MORE ERRATIC MOTION
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER MID-TROPOSPHERE OPPOSING FLOWS. THE MAIN
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BEGINNING OF THE TRACK BUT SOME
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD STILL PERSISTS FROM SATURDAY AN D BEYOND ON THE
TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE AND THE EVACUATION OR NOT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN LATITUDES. THE PRESENT RSMC FORECAST OPTS FOR AN ERRATIC
TRACK AROUND 20S AND TEND TO FOLLOW THE ONGOING TREND OF THE RELIABLE
GUIDANCE TO NOT EVACUATE THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.


IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ALL THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENT TO MAINTAIN HABANA AT STRONG INTENSITY AT LEAST UNTIL
SATURDAY. IN THE SHORT TERM, IT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW ERC THAT
DRIVES THE INTENSITY FORECAST BUT ITS OCCURRENCE STILL REQUIRES
CONFIRMATION. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS AND THEN MORE MARKEDLY ON SUNDAY,
AN INCREASE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR COULD START TO BRING DRY AIR
NEAR THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM AND WEAKEN HABANA. THIS INITIALLY SLOW
WEAKENING SHOULD ACCELERATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY (GFS IS A
LITTLE LATER THAN IFS ON THIS ASPECT).

OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 110017
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/03/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 11/03/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 74.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/11 AT 12 UTC:
17.6 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/12 AT 00 UTC:
18.2 S / 72.6 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 101836
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 29/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 10/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 75.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.5/7.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 70 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/03/2021 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 195 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 11/03/2021 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 12/03/2021 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 12/03/2021 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

60H: 13/03/2021 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 13/03/2021 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2021 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SO: 295 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

120H: 15/03/2021 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 295 SO: 280 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 175 NO: 130

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=6.5 CI=7.0

LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL S'EST LEGEREMENT DEGRADEE AU COURS DES 6
DERNIERES HEURES AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX MOINS FROIDS ET UN OEIL QUI
PERD DE SA DEFINITION NOTAMMENT SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES. CELLES-CI
REVELENT EN FAIT LA CONFIGURATION EN ERC BIEN VISIBLE SUR L'IMAGERIE
MICRO-ONDES AUJOURD'HUI. LES IMAGES AMSU-B DES FAUCHEES N19, METOP-A
PUIS METOP-B DE LA SOIREE, REVELENT LA CONSOLIDATION D'UN OEIL
SECONDAIRE DE 25 A 30 MN DE DIAMETRE, QUI DEVRAIT APPARAITRE DANS LES
PROCHAINES HEURES SUR L'IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE. LE RAYON DE VENT MAX A
ENCORE ETE POSITIONNE AU NIVEAU DE L'OEIL INTERNE MAIS IL N'EST PAS
IMPOSSIBLE QU'IL SE POSITIONNE DEJA AU NIVEAU DU MUR DE L'OEIL
EXTERNE. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE RESTE DELICATE ET NE SE BASE
TOUJOUR SPAS SUR DVORAK DANS UN TEL CONTEXTE. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
ETANT EN GENERAL CONSTATE DANS CES PHASES DE TRANSITION, L'INTENSITE
FINALE EST ESTIMEE A 100 KT.

QUELQUES CHANGEMENTS POUR CE QUI EST DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE
ET PRINCIPALEMENT EN FIN D'ECHEANCE. HABANA ORIENTE SON CAP VERS
L'OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE AU SUD
DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, LA PLUPART DES MODELES SUGGERENT UNE
PLONGEE GRADUELLE VERS LE SUD-OUEST VERS UNE FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE, GENEREE PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG PLUS AU SUD. HABANA
DEVRAIT ENSUITE VIRER VERS LE SUD VENDREDI/SAMEDI. DIMANCHE, SOUS
L'EFFET DE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT, HABANA DEVRAIT RALENTIR SON
DEPLACEMENT POUR COMMENCER UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS ERRATIQUE SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX CONTRAIRES SITUES PLUS BAS EN MOYENNES
TROPOSPHERE. LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR LE DEBUT
DE LA TRAJECTOIRE MAIS UNE DISPERSION IMPORTANTE PERSISTE ENCORE A
PARTIR DE SAMEDI SUR LE TIMING DU VIRAGE ET L'EVACUATION OU NON VERS
LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DU CMRS OPTE POUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE ERRATIQUE VERS 20S ET SUIT LA TENDANCE DES DERNIERES
GUIDANCES FIABLES A NE PAS EVACUER LE SYSTEME VERS LES LATITUDES
TEMPEREES EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, TOUTES LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
FAVORABLES SONT PRESENTES POUR PERMETTRE A HABANA DE MAINTENIR UNE
FORTE INTENSITE. SUR LES COURTES ECHEANCES, C'EST L'ERC ENTAME QUI
DICTE LA TENDANCE. UNE FOIS L'ERC TERMINE, HABANA DEVRAIT CONNAITRE A
NOUVEAU UNE PERIODE DE REINTENSIFICATION DU MOINS JUSQU'A SAMEDI. A
PARTIR DE SAMEDI PUIS PLUS NETTEMENT DIMANCHE, UNE HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE POURRAIT COMMENCER A APPORTER DE
L'AIR SEC PRES DU COEUR DU SYSTEME ET AFFAIBLIR HABANA. CEPENDANT,
TOUS LES MODELES NE SONT PAS EN ACCORD SUR LA PRESENCE DU
CISAILLEMENT DES SAMEDI, POUVANT SE PRODUIRE PLUS TARD. IL EXISTE
DONC UNE INCERTITUDE PLUS FORTE QUE LA NORMALE SUR CETTE PREVISION
D'INTENSITE, QUE CE SOIT AUX COURTES ECHEANCES EN LIEN AVEC L'ERC OU
A PLUS LONG TERME, EN LIEN AVEC L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC.

DURANT LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS, HABANA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACES POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 101836
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 75.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/7.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 70 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/11 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/11 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/12 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/12 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2021/03/13 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/13 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/14 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SW: 295 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2021/03/15 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 130

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.5 CI=7.0

THE EYE CONFIGURATION HAS SLIGHTLY DEGRADED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS
WITH SOME SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS AND AN EYE THAT LOSES ITS
DEFINITION ESPECIALLY ON THE LAST IMAGES. THESE IMAGES REVEAL IN FACT
THE ERC CONFIGURATION WELL VISIBLE ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY TODAY.
THE AMSU-B IMAGERY FROM THE N19, METOP-A THEN METOP-B SWATHS OF THE
EVENING, REVEAL THE CONSOLIDATION OF A SECONDARY EYE OF 25 TO 30 MN
OF DIAMETER, WHICH SHOULD APPEAR IN THE NEXT HOURS ON CLASSICAL
IMAGERY. THE MAXIMUM WIND RADIUS HAS STILL BEEN POSITIONED AT THE
INNER EYEWALL BUT MAY HAVE ALREADY SHIFT TO THE OUTER EYEWALL. THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A TOUGH ONE AND STILL NOT FOLLOW USUAL DVORAK
GUIDANCE IN SUCH A CONTEXT. A WEAKENING BEING GENERALLY NOTICED IN
THESE PHASES OF TRANSITION, THE FINAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 100
KT.

SOME CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND MAINLY AT THE END OF THE
TRACK. HABANA IS HEADING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. FROM TOMORROW, MOST MODELS
SUGGEST A GRADUEL SOUTH-WESTERLY DIP TOWARDS A WEAKENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, GENERATED BY THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH. HABANA SHOULD THEN TURN SOUTH ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY,
AS IT WEAKENS, HABANA SHOULD SLOW DOWN ITS MOTION TO START A MORE
ERRATIC MOTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER MID-TROPOSPHERE OPPOSING
FLOWS. THE MAIN MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BEGINNING OF THE
TRACK BUT SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD STILL PERSISTS FROM SATURDAY AN D
BEYOND ON THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE AND THE EVACUATION OR NOT
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES. THE PRESENT RSMC FORECAST OPTS FOR AN
ERRATIC TRACK AROUND 20S AND TEND TO FOLLOW THE ONGOING TREND OF THE
RELIABLE GUIDANCE TO NOT EVACUATE THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.


IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ALL THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENT TO MAINTAIN HABANA AT STRONG INTENSITY. IN THE SHORT TERM, IT
IS RATHER THE STARTED ERC THAT TAKE THE LEAD ON THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. ONCE THE ERC IS OVER, HABANA SHOULD AGAIN EXPERIENCE A
PERIOD OF REINTENSIFICATION AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY. FROM SATURDAY
ONWARDS AND THEN MORE MARKEDLY ON SUNDAY, AN INCREASE IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR COULD START TO BRING DRY AIR NEAR THE HEART OF
THE SYSTEM AND WEAKEN HABANA. HOWEVER, NOT ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE
PRESENCE OF THE SATURDAY SHEAR, WHICH MAY OCCUR LATER. THERE IS
THEREFORE A HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY ON THIS INTENSITY
PREDICTION, EITHER ON SHORT TIME SCALES RELATED TO THE ERC OR ON
LONGER TIME SCALES RELATED TO THE DRY AIR INTRUSION.

OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 101811
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/03/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 029/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 10/03/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 75.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/11 AT 06 UTC:
17.4 S / 74.3 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/11 AT 18 UTC:
17.8 S / 73.2 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 101230
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 10/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.4 S / 76.2 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 7.0/7.0/D 1.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/03/2021 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 195 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 11/03/2021 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 12/03/2021 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 12/03/2021 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 13/03/2021 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 250 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 13/03/2021 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2021 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SO: 250 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 95

120H: 15/03/2021 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 215 NO: 55

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=7.0

LA STRUCTURE EN OEIL DE HABANA EST IMPRESSIONNANTE : UN CI DE 7.0
SOIT DES VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 125KT ET UNE STRUCTURE CONVECTIVE QUI
RESTE DE PETITE TAILLE AVEC UN RAYON DE 150KM. CEPENDANT, IL EST FORT
PROBABLE QUE L'INTENSITE DE HABANA SOIT SURESTIMEE PAR L'ANALYSE
DVORAK. EN EFFET COMME LE MONTRENT LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDE DE AMSR2 DE
0817UTC, UN DEUXIEME MAXIMUM DE VENT APPARAIT DANS LES BASSES
COUCHES, VENANT ENFERMER LE PREMIER ANNEAU QUI PRESENTE UNE FAIBLESSE
DANS LA PARTIE SUD-OUEST. UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL
(ERC) ETANT EN COURS, LES VENTS MAXIMAUX VONT FAIBLIR PROCHAINEMENT
ACCOMPAGNES D'UNE AUGMENTATION DES EXTENSIONS DE VENTS. L'ANALYSE
DVORAK MOYENNEE SUR 3HEURES A L'HEURE DES DONNEES AMSR2 ETANT DE
6.5-, ON PEUT ESTIMER QUE LES VENTS ACTUELS SONT PLUTOT DE L'ORDRE DE
110KT, DEFINISSANT HABANA COMME UN CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE.

QUELQUES CHANGEMENTS POUR CE QUI EST DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE
ET PRINCIPALEMENT EN FIN D'ECHEANCE. HABANA ORIENTE SON CAP VERS
L'OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE AU SUD
DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, LA PLUPART DES MODELES SUGGERENT UNE
PLONGEE VERS LE SUD-OUEST VERS UNE FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE, GENEREE PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG PLUS AU SUD. HABANA
DEVRAIT ENSUITE VIRER VERS LE SUD VENDREDI/SAMEDI. DIMANCHE, SOUS
L'EFFET DE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT, HABANA DEVRAIT RALENTIR SON
DEPLACEMENT POUR COMMENCER UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS ERRATIQUE SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX CONTRAIRES SITUES PLUS BAS EN MOYENNES
TROPOSPHERE. LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR LE DEBUT
DE LA TRAJECTOIRE MAIS UNE DISPERSION PERSISTE ENCORE A PARTIR DE
SAMEDI SUR LE TIMING DU VIRAGE ET L'EVACUATION OU NON VERS LES
LATITUDES PLUS SUD. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DU CMRS OPTE POUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE ERRATIQUE VERS 20S LORS DU COMBLEMENT DE HABANA EN DEBUT
DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, TOUTES LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
FAVORABLES SONT PRESENTES POUR PERMETTRE A HABANA DE CONTINUER SON
INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE. SUR LES COURTES ECHEANCES, C'EST PLUTOT L'ERC
ENTAME RECEMMENT QUI RISQUE DE LIMITER VOIRE INVERSER TEMPORAIREMENT
CETTE TENDANCE. UNE FOIS L'ERC TERMINE, HABANA DEVRAIT CONNAITRE A
NOUVEAU UNE PERIODE DE REINTENSIFICATION DU MOINS JUSQU'A SAMEDI. A
PARTIR DE SAMEDI PUIS PLUS NETTEMENT DIMANCHE, UNE HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE POURRAIT COMMENCER A APPORTER DE
L'AIR SEC PRES DU COEUR DU SYSTEME ET AFFAIBLIR HABANA JUSQU'AU
SEUIL DE DEPRESION SE COMBLANT A ECHEANCE DE LUNDI. CEPENDANT, TOUS
LES MODELES NE SONT PAS EN ACCORD SUR LA PRESENCE DU CISAILLEMENT DES
SAMEDI, POUVANT SE PRODUIRE PLUS TARD. IL EXISTE DONC UNE INCERTITUDE
PLUS FORTE QUE LA NORMALE SUR CETTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE, QUE CE
SOIT AUX COURTES ECHEANCES EN LIEN AVEC L'ERC OU A PLUS LONG TERME,
EN LIEN AVEC L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC.

DURANT LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS, HABANA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACES POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 101230
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 76.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0/7.0/D 1.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/11 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/11 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/12 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/12 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/13 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/13 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/14 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 95

120H: 2021/03/15 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 55

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=7.0

THE HABANA'S EYE PATTERN IS IMPRESSIVE : A CI OF 7.0 WITH AVERAGE
WINDS ESTIMATED AT 125KT AND A CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WHICH REMAINS
SMALL WITH A RADIUS OF 150KM. HOWEVER, IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THE
INTENSITY OF HABANA IS OVERESTIMATED BY THE DVORAK ANALYSIS. INDEED,
AS SHOWN BY THE MICROWAVE DATA OF AMSR2 FROM 0817UTC, A SECOND WIND
MAXIMUM APPEARS IN THE LOW LAYERS, ENCLOSING THE FIRST RING WHICH
SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN PART. AS AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE (ERC) IS IN PROGRESS, THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOON
ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN WIND EXTENSIONS. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS
AVERAGED OVER 3 HOURS AT THE TIME OF THE AMSR2 DATA BEING 6.5-, WE
CAN ESTIMATE THAT THE CURRENT WINDS ARE RATHER AROUND 110KT, DEFINING
HABANA AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

SOME CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND MAINLY AT THE END OF THE
TRACK. HABANA IS HEADING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. FROM TOMORROW, MOST MODELS
SUGGEST A SOUTH-WESTERLY DIP TOWARDS A WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, GENERATED BY THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. HABANA
SHOULD THEN TURN SOUTH ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY, AS IT WEAKENS,
HABANA SHOULD SLOW DOWN ITS MOTION TO START A MORE ERRATIC MOTION
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER MID-TROPOSPHERE OPPOSING FLOWS. THE MAIN
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BEGINNING OF THE TRACK BUT A
DISPERSION STILL PERSISTS FROM SATURDAY ON THE TIMING OF THE TURN AND
THE EVACUATION OR NOT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES. THE PRESENT
RSMC FORECAST OPTS FOR AN ERRATIC TRACK AROUND 20S DURING THE FILLING
OF HABANA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ALL THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENT TO ALLOW HABANA TO CONTINUE ITS RAPID INTENSIFICATION. IN THE
SHORT TERM, IT IS RATHER THE RECENTLY STARTED ERC THAT MAY LIMIT OR
EVEN TEMPORARILY REVERSE THIS TREND. ONCE THE ERC IS OVER, HABANA
SHOULD AGAIN EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF REINTENSIFICATION AT LEAST UNTIL
SATURDAY. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS AND THEN MORE MARKEDLY ON SUNDAY, AN
INCREASE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR COULD START TO BRING DRY AIR
NEAR THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM AND WEAKEN HABANA UNTIL THE THRESHOLD OF
DEPRESSION FILLING UP, CLOSES BY MONDAY. HOWEVER, NOT ALL MODELS
AGREE ON THE PRESENCE OF THE SATURDAY SHEAR, WHICH MAY OCCUR LATER.
THERE IS THEREFORE A HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY ON THIS INTENSITY
PREDICTION, EITHER ON SHORT TIME SCALES RELATED TO THE ERC OR ON
LONGER TIME SCALES RELATED TO THE DRY AIR INTRUSION.

OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 101204
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/03/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 10/03/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 76.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/11 AT 00 UTC:
17.5 S / 74.9 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/11 AT 12 UTC:
17.8 S / 73.8 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 100631
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 10/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.5 S / 76.9 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 30
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/03/2021 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 195 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

24H: 11/03/2021 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

36H: 11/03/2021 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 12/03/2021 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 12/03/2021 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 13/03/2021 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SO: 250 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2021 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SO: 270 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 85

120H: 15/03/2021 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SO: 315 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 140

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE EN OEIL S'EST ENCORE
CONSOLIDEE LAISSANT UNE ANALYSE DVORAK DE 5.5+. SUIVANT CETTE
ANALYSE, ON PEUT ESTIMER DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 95KT, PLACANT HABANA
AU SEUIL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. LES DERNIERES SSMIS
EXPLOITABLES DE 2337UTC MONTRENT TOUTEFOIS L'APPARITION D'UNE
DEUXIEME ZONE DE REFLECTIVITE PLUS LOIN DU CENTRE. CETTE STRUCTURE
LAISSE PENSER A UN ERC, ENTAME UN PEU APRES 18UTC HIER. QUOIQU'IL EN
SOIT HABANA EST DANS UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE QUI POURRAIT
ETRE GENEE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES PAR UN ERC. L'ABSENCE DE
DONNEES MICRO-ONDES PLUS RECENTES NE PERMET PAS DE VALIDER CETTE
HYPOTHESE, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA STRUCUTRE LA PLUS PROCHE DU
CENTRE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT : HABANA MAINTIENT SON CAP OUEST-NORD-OUEST, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE AU SUD DU SYSTEME. A
PARTIR DE JEUDI, LA PLUPART DES MODELES SUGGERENT UNE PLONGEE VERS LE
SUD-OUEST VERS UNE FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, GENEREE PAR
LE PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG PLUS AU SUD. HABANA DEVRAIT ENSUITE VIRER VERS
LE SUD VENDREDI/SAMEDI, PUIS VERS LE SUD-EST DIMANCHE, SCENARIO
CHOISI PAR LE CMRS. LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES COMMENCENT A CONVERGER
VERS CE SCENARIO MAIS UNE DISPERSION MODEREE PERSISTE ENCORE A PARTIR
DE SAMEDI SUR LE TIMING ET LA RAPIDITE DU VIRAGE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, QUASIMENT TOUTES LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES SONT PRESENTES POUR PERMETTRE A HABANA
DE CONTINUER A SE REINTENSIFIER RAPIDEMENT, SEUL LE CISAILLEMENT
POURRAIT ETRE UN PEU LIMITATION AUX COURTES ECHEANCES. SA PETITE
TAILLE EST AUSSI UN ATOUT POUR CETTE REINTENSIFICATION RAPIDE. CETTE
PHILOSOPHIE SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE SE MAINTIENT JUSQU'A SAMEDI,
EN GARDANT A L'ESPRIT QU'AU COURS DE CETTE PERIODE LE DECLENCHEMENT
D'UN ERC (CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL) POURRAIT INDUIRE DE
FORTES VARIATIONS (AFFAIBLISSEMENT/INTENSIFICATION) DE L'INTENSITE. A
PARTIR DE SAMEDI PUIS PLUS NETTEMENT DIMANCHE, UNE HAUSSE TRES
PROGRESSIVE DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE POURRAIT COMMENCER
A APPORTER DE L'AIR SEC PLUS PRES DU COEUR DU SYSTEME ET COMMENCER A
AFFAIBLIR HABANA. CEPENDANT, TOUS LES MODELES NE SONT PAS EN ACCORD
SUR LA PRESENCE DU CISAILLEMENT DES SAMEDI, POUVANT SE PRODUIRE PLUS
TARD. IL EXISTE DONC UNE INCERTITUDE PLUS FORTE QUE LA NORMALE SUR
CETTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE, QUE CE SOIT AUX COURTES ECHEANCES OU A
PLUS LONG TERME.

DURANT LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS, HABANA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACES POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 100631
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 76.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 30
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/10 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/11 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/11 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/12 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/12 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/13 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/14 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 85

120H: 2021/03/15 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SW: 315 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 140

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE STRUCTURE HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED
LEAVING A DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 5.5+. FOLLOWING THIS ANALYSIS, WE CAN
ESTIMATE WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 95KT, RANKING HABANA AT THE THRESHOLD
OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LAST EXPLOITABLE SSMIS OF 2337UTC
SHOW HOWEVER THE APPEARANCE OF A SECOND ZONE OF REFLECTIVITY FURTHER
FROM THE CENTER. THIS STRUCTURE LOOKS LIKE AN ERC, STARTED A LITTLE
AFTER 18UTC YESTERDAY. IN ANY CASE HABANA IS IN A PHASE OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION WHICH COULD BE GENERATED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BY AN
ERC. THE ABSENCE OF MORE RECENT MICROWAVE DATA DOES NOT ALLOW TO
VALIDATE THIS HYPOTHESIS, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE STRUCTURE CLOSEST
TO THE CENTER.

NO CHANGE: HABANA MAINTAINS ITS WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. FROM
THURSDAY ON, MOST MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHWESTWARD DIVE TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, GENERATED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. HABANA SHOULD THEN TURN SOUTH ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY, THEN SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY, SCENARIO CHOSEN BY THE
RSMC. THE MAIN MODELS START TO CONVERGE TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO BUT A
MODERATE DISPERSION STILL PERSISTS FROM SATURDAY ON ON THE TIMING AND
SPEED OF THE TURN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ALMOST ALL THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT TO ALLOW HABANA TO CONTINUE TO REINTENSIFY
RAPIDLY, ONLY THE SHEAR COULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED TO SHORT TIME
SCALES. ITS SMALL SIZE IS ALSO AN ASSET FOR THIS RAPID
REINTENSIFICATION. THIS PHILOSOPHY ON INTENSITY FORECASTS CONTINUES
UNTIL SATURDAY, KEEPING IN MIND THAT DURING THIS PERIOD THE
TRIGGERING OF AN ERC (EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE) COULD INDUCE STRONG
VARIATIONS (WEAKENING/INTENSIFICATION) IN INTENSITY. FROM SATURDAY
AND THEN MORE CLEARLY ON SUNDAY, A VERY PROGRESSIVE INCREASE IN SHEAR
IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE COULD START TO BRING DRY AIR CLOSER TO THE
HEART OF THE SYSTEM AND START TO WEAKEN HABANA. HOWEVER, NOT ALL
MODELS AGREE ON THE PRESENCE OF SATURDAY'S SHEAR, WHICH COULD OCCUR
LATER. THERE IS THEREFORE A GREATER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY ON THIS
INTENSITY FORECAST, BOTH IN THE SHORT AND LONGER TERM.

OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 100600
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/03/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 10/03/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 76.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/10 AT 18 UTC:
17.4 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/11 AT 06 UTC:
17.6 S / 74.4 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 100011
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 10/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.8 S / 77.6 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 967 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/03/2021 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

24H: 11/03/2021 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 11/03/2021 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 195 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 12/03/2021 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 12/03/2021 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 230 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 13/03/2021 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2021 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SO: 270 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 65

120H: 15/03/2021 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SO: 80 NO: 80

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, UNE STRUCTURE EN OEIL S'EST REMISE
PROGRESSIVEMENT EN PLACE EN IMAGERIE IR, DISPARAISSANT PARFOIS
PENDANT QUELQUES IMAGES. LES IMAGES MO DES PASSES GMI DE 1751Z ET
AMSR2 DE 2005Z CONFIRMENT LE RETOUR D'UNE STRUCTURE INTERNE SOLIDE
AVEC UN ANNEAU DE CONVECTION RELATIVEMENT EPAIS SUR TOUTE SA
CIRCONFERENCE. COMME OBSERVE AU COURS DES JOURS PRECEDENTS, DES
BANDES PERIPHERIQUES S'ENROULENT AUTOUR DU COEUR INTERNE. CELA FAIT
REAUGMENTER DE NOUVEAU LES PROBABILITES DE SURVENUE D'UN CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL AU COURS DES PROCHAINE HEURES SUR LE
PRODUIT M-PERC DU CIMSS. L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR
L'ESTIMATION DVORAK, HABANA ETANT SUR LES RAILS D'UNE
REINTENSIFICATION RAPIDE.

HABANA MAINTIENT SON CAP OUEST-NORD-OUEST, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QUI SE FAUFILE AU SUD DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE
JEUDI, LA PLUPART DES MODELES SUGGERENT UNE PLONGEE VERS LE SUD-OUEST
VERS UNE FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. HABANA DEVRAIT ENSUITE
VIRER VERS LE SUD VENDREDI/SAMEDI, PUIS LE SUD-EST DIMANCHE. LES
PRINCIPAUX MODELES COMMENCENT A CONVERGER VERS CE SCENARIO MAIS UNE
DISPERSION MODEREE PERSISTE ENCORE A PARTIR DE SAMEDI. LA PREVISION
DU CMRS SE BASE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES
DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, HABANA DISPOSE DESORMAIS DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES, DONT UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET UN
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE FAVORABLE. AINSI, HABANA DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE SE
REINTENSIFIER RAPIDEMENT, PROFITANT DE SA PETITE TAILLE. A PARTIR DE
SAMEDI PUIS PLUS NETTEMENT DIMANCHE, UNE HAUSSE TRES PROGRESSIVE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE POURRAIT COMMENCER A APPORTER DE
L'AIR SEC PLUS PRES DU COEUR DU SYSTEME ET COMMENCER A AFFAIBLIR
HABANA. CEPENDANT, TOUT LES MODELES NE SONT PAS EN ACCORD SUR LA
PRESENCE DU CISAILLEMENT DES SAMEDI. IL EXISTE DONC UNE INCERTITUDE
PLUS FORTE QUE LA NORMALE SUR CETTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE, D'AUTANT
QU'UN ERC EST POSSIBLE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS ET QUE LA PETITE
TAILLE D'HABANA PERMET DES CHANGEMENTS D'INTENSITE RAPIDES.

DURANT LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS, HABANA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACES POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 100011
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/13/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 77.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 967 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/10 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/11 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/11 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/12 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/12 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/13 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/14 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 65

120H: 2021/03/15 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 80

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, AN EYE PATTERN HAS PROGRESSIVELY EMERGED AGAIN
ON SAT IR IMAGERY, DISAPPEARING A FEW TIMES BEFORE BECOMING MORE
STABLE. THE 1751Z AND 2005Z AMSR2 MW IMAGES CONFIRM THE RETURN OF A
STRONG INNER STRUCTURE WITH A THICK AND COMPLETE INNER CONVECTION
RING. AS SEEN DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS, PERIPHERAL BANDS ARE STILL
WRAPPING AROUND THE INNER CORE. THIS DRIVES A NEW INCREASE IN THE
PROBABILITIES OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE SUGGESTED BY THE CIMSS
M-PERC PRODUCT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE RSMC DVORAK
ESTIMATE, HABANA BEING ON TRACK FOR A RAPID REINTENSIFICATION.

HABANA KEEPS HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT CURRENTLY CRAWLS ITS WAY SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. FROM THURSDAY, MOST MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHWESTWARD
DIVE TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HABANA IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD
SUNDAY. THE MAIN MODELS CONVERGE ON THIS SCENARIO, BUT A MODERATE
DISPERSION STILL REMAINS FROM SATURDAY. THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HABANA CURRENTLY ENCOUNTERS CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND FAVORABLE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL. THUS, HABANA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP RAPIDLY
REINTENSIFYING, BENEFITING FROM ITS SMALL SIZE. FROM SATURDAY THEN
MORE SHARPLY SUNDAY, A VERY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LEVEL
SHEAR COULD BEGIN TO BRING DRY AIR CLOSER TO THE TC INNER CORE AND
WEAKEN THE STORM. HOWEVER, ALL MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE
PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR FROM SATURDAY. FURTHERMORE, AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAYS. GIVEN ALSO THE
SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FAST INTENSITY CHANGES, THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS THUS ASSOCIATED TO A STRONGER UNCERTAINTY THAN
NORMAL.

OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 100010
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/03/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 10/03/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 967 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 77.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/10 AT 12 UTC:
17.6 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/11 AT 00 UTC:
17.5 S / 74.7 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 091810
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 09/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.0 S / 78.2 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/03/2021 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 10/03/2021 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

36H: 11/03/2021 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

48H: 11/03/2021 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 12/03/2021 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

72H: 12/03/2021 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/03/2021 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65

120H: 14/03/2021 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SO: 70 NO: 80

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0+;CI=4.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX DU CDO D'HABANA
SE SONT GRADUELLEMENT REFROIDIS. UN POINT CHAUD EST EN TRAIN DE
REAPPARAITRE AU SEIN DU CDO SUR LES TOUTES DERNIERES IMAGES IR. CELA
REFLETE L'AMELIORATION DE LA CONFIGURATION INTERNE REVELEE PAR
L'IMAGE SSMIS DE 1303Z PAR RAPPORT A L'IMAGE DE 1149Z. EN EFFET, UN
ANNEAU DE CONVECTION INTERNE COMMENCAIT A SE RECONSTITUER MALGRE UNE
FAIBLESSE PERSISTANTE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. LA PASSE SMAP DE
1307Z RELEVE UN VMAX DE 58KT. VU LA LEGERE AMELIORATION DE LA
CONFIGURATION, L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE DU CMRS RESTE LEGEREMENT
SUPERIEURE A CETTE ESTIMATION.

HABANA CONTINUE SA ROUTE SUR SON CAP OUEST-NORD-OUEST, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QUI SE GLISSE AU SUD SYSTEME.
A PARTIR DE JEUDI, LA PLUPART DES MODELES SUGGERENT UNE PLONGEE VERS
LE SUD-OUEST AU SEIN D'UNE FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE.
HABANA DEVRAIT ENSUITE VIRER VERS LE SUD VENDREDI/SAMEDI, PUIS LE
SUD-EST DIMANCHE. LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES COMMENCENT A CONVERGER VERS
CE SCENARIO MAIS UNE DISPERSION MODEREE PERSISTE ENCORE. LA PREVISION
DU CMRS SE BASE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES
DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME HABANA DEVRAIT DISPOSER DE BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES A COURT TERME. HABANA SE DEPLACE DANS LA
MEME DIRECTION QUE LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL (ESTIME A 10 KT VERS 12Z
D'APRES LES DONNEES DU CIMSS) CE QUI DEVRAIT LIMITER LES INTRUSIONS
SECHES. IL BENEFICIERA ALORS D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET
D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE FAVORABLE. AINSI, HABANA DEVRAIT SE
RECONSTITUER UNE POCHE HUMIDE LUI PERMETTANT DE SE REINTENSIFIER. A
PARTIR DE SAMEDI PUIS PLUS NETTEMENT DIMANCHE, UNE HAUSSE TRES
PROGRESSIVE DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE PUIS DE HAUTE TROPOSPHERE
POURRAIT COMMENCER A APPORTER DE L'AIR SEC PLUS PRES DU COEUR DU
SYSTEME ET LANCER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT D'HABANA.

DURANT LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS, HABANA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACES POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 091810
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/13/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 78.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/10 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2021/03/10 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/11 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/11 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/12 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/12 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/13 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

120H: 2021/03/14 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 80

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0+;CI=4.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, THE CLOUD TOPS WITHIN HABANA'S CDO HAVE
GRADUALLY COOLED AGAIN. A WARM SPOT HAS APPEARED WITHIN THE CDO ON
THE VERY LAST IR IMAGES. THIS REFLECTS THE IMPROVEMENT OF HABANA'S
INNER STRUCTURE FIRST SEEN ON MW IMAGERY BETWEEN THE 1303Z SSMIS AND
1149Z SSMIS SWATH : AN INNER CONVECTIVE RING WAS BEGINNING TO BUILD
AGAIN DESPITE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE
1307Z SMAP SWATH SUGGESTS MAX WINDS AT 58KT. GIVEN THE SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN THE CLOUD PATTERN, THE RSMC INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS
SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THIS READING.

HABANA KEEPS HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT CURRENTLY CRAWLS ITS WAY SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. FROM THURSDAY, MOST MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHWESTWARD
DIVE TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HABANA IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD
SUNDAY. THE MAIN MODELS SEEM TO CONVERGE ON THIS SCENARIO, BUT A
MODERATE DISPERSION STILL REMAINS. THE RSMC'S FORECAST IS BASED ON A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HABANA IS EXPECTED TO BENEFIT FROM CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM. HABANA IS MOVING IN THE
SAME DIRECTION AS THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (ESTIMATED AROUND 10 KT AT
12Z ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA) WHICH SHOULD PREVENT DRY MID-LEVEL
INTRUSIONS. IT WILL THUS BENEFIT FROM A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A
FAVORABLE OCEANIC POTENTIAL. THUS, HABANA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK
ITS MOISTURE POACH AND REINTENSIFY. FROM SATURDAY THEN MORE SHARPLY
SUNDAY, A VERY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
COULD BEGIN TO BRING DRY AIR CLOSER TO THE TC INNER CORE AND TRIGGER
ITS WEAKENING.

OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 091810
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 09/03/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 78.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/10 AT 06 UTC:
17.6 S / 76.5 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/10 AT 18 UTC:
17.4 S / 75.1 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 091236
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 09/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.3 S / 78.9 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 973 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 40 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/03/2021 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 10/03/2021 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

36H: 11/03/2021 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

48H: 11/03/2021 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 12/03/2021 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 12/03/2021 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/03/2021 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65

120H: 14/03/2021 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SO: 260 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 80 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5- CI=4.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, APRES UNE AMELIORATION DE LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN OEIL, CELLE-CI S'EST PROGRESSIVEMENT
DEGRADE VERS 10Z AU PROFIT D'UNE CONFIGURATION A CENTRE NOYE DANS LA
MASSE.
LA DERNIERE IMAGE MICRO-ONDE SSMI DE 0953Z PRESENTE UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.
L'ANALYSE DVORAK A 7Z PRESENTAIT UN T MOYEN DE 4.5+ ET LE FT MOYEN A
12Z EST REDECENDU A 4.5-. LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES (ADT, SATCON)
SONT A 55-65 KT (VENTS 10-MIN) A 0857Z. L'INTENSITE FINALE RESTE
ESTIMEE A 70 KT EN LIMITE HAUTE DES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, HABANA ACCELERE SUR UN CAP
OUEST-NORD-OUEST, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SE
RENFORCANT AU SUD ET AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, LA
PLUPART DES MODELES SUGGERENT UNE PLONGEE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, PUIS
VERS LE SUD VOIR SUD-EST A PARTIR DU VENDREDI/SAMEDI, AU SEIN D'UNE
FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. NEANMOINS LES DERNIERES
GUIDANCES PRA SENTENT UNE FORTE DISPERSION SUR CE NOUVEAU VIRAGE. LA
PREVISION DU CMRS SE BASE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME HABANA DEVRAIT DISPOSER DE BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES A COURT TERME. HABANA SE DIRIGE DANS LA
MEME DIRECTION QUE LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL (ESTIME A 10 KT VERS 06Z
D'APRES LES DONNEES DU CIMSS) CE QUI DEVRAIT L'IMITER L'INTRUSION
D'AIR SEC DANS LE SYSTEME. IL BENEFICIERA ALORS D'UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE FAVORABLE. CELA
DEVRAIT FAVORISER UNE REPRISE DE L'INTENSIFICATION DANS LES
PROCHAINES 24 HEURES ET JUSQU'EN FIN DE SEMAINE. EN TOUTE FIN
D'ECHEANCE, UNE POSSIBLE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST/NORD-OUEST EN
MARGE D'UN TALWEG POURRAIT AMORCER UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME.

DURANT LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS, HABANA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACES POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 091236
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/13/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 78.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/10 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2021/03/10 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/11 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/11 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/12 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/12 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/13 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

120H: 2021/03/14 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 260 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5- CI=4.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, AFTER AN IMPROVEMENT OF THE EIR EYE PATTERN
IT GRADUALLY DEGRADED TOWARDS 10Z IN FAVOR OF AN EMBEDDED CENTER
PATTERN. THE 0953Z SSMI SHOWED A WEAKENING OF THE EYE WALL IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE 7Z DVORAK ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AVERAGE DT AT
4.5+ AND THE AVERAGE FT AT 12Z IS REDUCED TO 4.5-. THE OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES (ADT, SATCON) ARE AT 55-65 KT (WINDS 10-MIN) AT 0857Z. THE
FINAL INTENSITY REMAINS ESTIMATED AT 70 KT AT THE UPPER LIMIT OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCES.

HABANA ACCELERATES ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING, UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM. FROM THURSDAY, MOST MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHWESTWARD DIVE,
BENDING THEN SOUTHWARD OR EVEN SOUTHEASTWARD FROM FRIDAY/SATURDAY,
WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A
STRONG SPREAD AMONG THE LAST GUIDANCES ON THIS NEW TURN. THE RSMC'S
FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HABANA SHOULD HAVE GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM. HABANA IS HEADING IN THE SAME DIRECTION
AS THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (ESTIMATED AROUND 10 KT AT 06Z ACCORDING TO
CIMSS DATA) WHICH SHOULD BOUND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN
MID-TROPOSHERE INTO THE SYSTEM. IT WILL THEN BENEFIT FROM A GOOD
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A FAVORABLE OCEANIC POTENTIAL. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
A RESUMPTION OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK. AT THE VERY END OF THE WEEK, A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN
THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF A TROUGH COULD START A
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.

OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 091213
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 09/03/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 973 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 78.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/10 AT 00 UTC:
17.9 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/10 AT 12 UTC:
17.6 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090625
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 09/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.4 S / 79.6 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 40 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/03/2021 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 10/03/2021 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 10/03/2021 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 11/03/2021 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

60H: 11/03/2021 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 12/03/2021 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/03/2021 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 130 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65

120H: 14/03/2021 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SO: 305 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 175 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SO: 80 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE SONT
REFROIDIS PRES DU CENTRE AVEC UNE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL UN PEU MIEUX
AFFIRMEE NOTAMMENT EN IMAGERIE VISIBLE. LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE SONT
PAR CONTRE RECHAUFFES AU SEIN DE LA BANDE PERIPHERIQUE BIEN ACTIVE
PRESENTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD. LE DT MOYEN EN 3H RESTE A 4.5-
AVEC UNE CONFIGURATION EN AMELIORATION SENSIBLE DEPUIS 05Z ENVIRON. A
0213Z UNE PASS SMOS A RELEVE DES VENTS DE 59 KT, AVEC UNE
SOUS-ESTIMATION PROBABLE EN RAISON DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU COEUR
CENTRAL. LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES (ADT, SATCON) SONT A 55-60 KT
(VENTS 10-MIN) A 0411Z. UNE SOUS ESTIMATION EST LA AUSSI PROBABLE EN
RAISON DE LA PETTE TAILLE DU SYSTEME. L'INTENSITE FINALE RESTE
ESTIMEE A 65 KT EN LIMITE HAUTE DES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, HABANA ACCELERE SUR UN CAP
OUEST-NORD-OUEST, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SE
RENFORCANT AU SUD ET AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, LA
PLUPART DES MODELES SUGGERENT UNE PLONGEE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, PUIS
VERS LE SUD VOIR SUD-EST A PARTIR DU VENDREDI/SAMEDI, AU SEIN D'UNE
FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ASSOCIEE AUX RESTES DE
L'EX-TEMPETE IMAN. NEANMOINS IL RESTE ENCORE UNE FORTE DISPERSION SUR
CE NOUVEAU VIRAGE. LA PREVISION DU CMRS SE BASE SUR UN COMPROMIS
ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, APRES L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT OBSERVE CE LUNDI,
L'ACCELERATION DU SYSTEME DANS LA DIRECTION DU CISAILLEMENT (ESTIME A
10 KT VERS 03Z D'APRES LES DONNEES DU CIMSS) DEVRAIT L'AFFRANCHIR
D'AUTRES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC. IL BENEFICIERA ALORS D'UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE FAVORABLE. CELA
DEVRAIT FAVORISER UNE REPRISE DE L'INTENSIFICATION DES CE MARDI ET
JUSQU'A JEUDI OU VENDREDI. LA POSSIBLE PRESENCE D'UN CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL ACTUELLEMENT POURRAIT MODIFIER
L'EVOLUTION ATTENDUE MAIS RESTE DIFFICILE A ANTICIPER PLUSIEURS JOURS
A L'AVANCE. EN TOUTE FIN D'ECHEANCE, UNE POSSIBLE HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST/NORD-OUEST EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG POURRAIT AMORCER
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT.

DURANT LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS, HABANA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACES POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090625
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/13/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 79.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/09 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2021/03/10 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/10 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/11 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/11 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/12 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/13 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

120H: 2021/03/14 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUDY TOPS HAVE COOLED DOWN NEAR THE
CENTER WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER EYE CONFIGURATION ESPECIALLY IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED UP WITHIN THE
ACTIVE PERIPHERAL BAND PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
AVERAGE DT IN 3H REMAINS AT 4.5- WITH A CONFIGURATION IN SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT SINCE ABOUT 05Z. AT 0213Z A SMOS PASS WITH WINDS OF 59
KT, WITH A PROBABLE UNDERESTIMATION DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
CENTRAL CORE. THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES (ADT, SATCON) ARE AT 55-60 KT
(10-MIN WINDS) AT 0411Z. AN UNDERESTIMATION IS ALSO LIKELY DUE TO THE
SMALL SIZE OF THE INNER-CORE. THE FINAL INTENSITY REMAINS ESTIMATED
AT 65 KT AT THE UPPER LIMIT OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCES.


HABANA ACCELERATES ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING, UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM. FROM THURSDAY, MOST MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHWESTWARD DIVE,
BENDING THEN SOUTHWARD OR EVEN SOUTHEASTWARD FROM FRIDAY/SATURDAY,
WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE FORMER TROPICAL STORM IMAN. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A
STRONG SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCE ON THIS NEW TURN. THE RSMC'S
FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, AFTER THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED THIS
MONDAY, THE ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WIND
SHEAR (ESTIMATED AROUND 10 KT AT 03Z ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA) SHOULD
FREE IT FROM OTHER DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. IT WILL THEN BENEFIT FROM GOOD
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND FAVORABLE OCEANIC POTENTIAL. INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD THUS RESUME AS FROM TUESDAY AND UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE
POTENTIAL OCCURRING OF A CURRENT ERC MAY CHANGE THE INTENSITY
FORECAST BUT SUCH OCCURRENCE REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE. AT
THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF A TROUGH COULD WEAKEN HABANA.

OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 090612
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 09/03/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 79.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 90 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/09 AT 18 UTC:
18.0 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/10 AT 06 UTC:
17.6 S / 76.5 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090034
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 09/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.5 S / 80.1 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/03/2021 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

24H: 10/03/2021 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

36H: 10/03/2021 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

48H: 11/03/2021 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 11/03/2021 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 12/03/2021 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/03/2021 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 14/03/2021 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 90 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 40 SO: 50 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A CONTINUE DE
SE MAINTENIR A LA FOIS A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE ET AU SEIN D'UNE BANDE
CONVECTIVE QUI S'ENROULE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST. LES DONNEES SSMI
DE 2223Z LE MONTRENT ET CELA POURRAIT SUGGERER QUE LE CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL EVOQUE HIER A REPRIS OU QU'UN NOUVEAU A
DEMARRE.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, HABANA A COMMENCE A ACCELERER SON MOUVEMENT
VERS L'OUEST, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-EST
DU CYCLONE. UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE S'INSTALLANT AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME
DEVRAIT INFLECHIR LA TRAJECTOIRE DAVANTAGE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST. A
PARTIR DE JEUDI, LA PLUPART DES MODELES SUGGERENT UNE PLONGEE VERS LE
SUD-OUEST, PUIS VERS LE SUD VOIR SUD-EST A PARTIR DU VENDREDI/SAMEDI.
NEANMOINS IL RESTE ENCORE UNE FORTE DISPERSION SUR CE NOUVEAU VIRAGE.
LA PREVISION DU CMRS SE BASE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, APRES L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT OBSERVE CE LUNDI,
L'ACCELERATION DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST DANS LA DIRECTION DU
CISAILLEMENT (QUI RESTE FAIBLE) DEVRAIT L'AFFRANCHIR D'AUTRES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC. IL BENEFICIERA ALORS D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE ET D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE FAVORABLE. CELA DEVRAIT
FAVORISER UNE REPRISE DE L'INTENSIFICATION DES CE MARDI ET JUSQU'A
JEUDI OU VENDREDI. LA POSSIBLE PRESENCE D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU
MUR DE L'OEIL ACTUELLEMENT POURRAIT MODIFIER L'EVOLUTION ATTENDUE ET
SERA PRISE EN COMPTE DANS LES PROCHAINS RESEAUX SI BESOIN. EN TOUTE
FIN D'ECHEANCE, UNE POSSIBLE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT
D'OUEST/NORD-OUEST EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG POURRAIT AMORCER UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT.

DURANT LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS, HABANA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACES POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090034
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/13/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 80.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/09 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2021/03/10 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/10 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/11 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/11 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/12 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/13 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2021/03/14 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 40 SW: 50 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STILL QUITE STRONG NEAR
BOTH THE CENTER AND IN A BAND WRAPING IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
2223Z SSMI DATA CONFIRM THAT AND MAY SUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE MENTIONED YESTERDAY IS STILL OCCURRING OR THAT A
NEW ONE STARTED.

HABANA IS STARTING TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD, UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. TOMORROW, A NEW
RIDGE SETTLING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD INFLECT THE
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. FROM THURSDAY, MOST MODELS SUGGEST A
SOUTHWESTWARD DIVE, BENDING THEN SOUTHWARD OR EVEN SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A STRONG SPREAD AMONG THE
GUIDANCE ON THIS NEW TURN. THE RSMC'S FORECAST IS BASED ON A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, AFTER THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED THIS
MONDAY, THE WESTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE WIND SHEAR (WHICH REMAINS WEAK) SHOULD FREE IT FROM OTHER DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS. IT WILL THEN BENEFIT FROM GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
FAVORABLE OCEANIC POTENTIAL. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD THUS RESUME AS
FROM TUESDAY AND UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL OCCURRING OF
A CURRENT ERC MAY CHANGE THE INTENSITY FORECAST, AND WILL BE TAKEN
INTO ACCOUNT IF NEEDED IN THE NEXT FORECASTS. AT THE VERY END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
AHEAD OF A TROUGH COULD WEAKEN HABANA.

OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 090019
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 09/03/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 976 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 80.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 130 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/09 AT 12 UTC:
18.2 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/10 AT 00 UTC:
17.7 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 081901
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.5 S / 80.5 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/03/2021 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 09/03/2021 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 10/03/2021 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 10/03/2021 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

60H: 11/03/2021 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 195 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 11/03/2021 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/03/2021 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 13/03/2021 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 315 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SO: 70 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION D'HABANA A CONNU
UNE EVOLUTION CONTRASTEE. APRES UNE PREMIERE PHASE DE RECHAUFFEMENT
DES SOMMETS ET LA DISPARITION DU PETIT OEIL, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE
S'EST A NOUVEAU RENFORCEE PROCHE DU CENTRE. LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES
SSMIS DE 1318Z MONTRENT TOUJOURS UNE STRUCTURE IMPACTEE PAR LA
CONTRAINTE DE NORD-EST. TOUTEFOIS, SA RESOLUTION NE PERMET PAS
D'EXCLURE LA PRESENCE D'UN PETIT OEIL. ENFIN LES PASSES SMAP ET SMOS
DE CETTE APRES-MIDI DONNAIENT RESPECTIVEMENT 64 ET 59KT. CELA SUGGERE
QUE DES VENTS FORCE OURAGAN SONT TOUJOURS PRESENTS DANS LA
CIRCULATION D'HABANA.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, HABANA A COMMENCE A ACCELERER SON MOUVEMENT
VERS L'OUEST, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-EST
DU CYCLONE. DEMAIN, UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE S'INSTALLANT AU SUD-OUEST DU
SYSTEME DEVRAIT INFLECHIR LA TRAJECTOIRE DAVANTAGE VERS
L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST. PAR RAPPORT AUX PRECEDENTES PREVISIONS, LES
DERNIERES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES ONT RENFORCE ENCORE LA REMONTEE VERS
LE NORD-OUEST CE QUI A ETE PRIS EN COMPTE. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, LA
PLUPART DES MODELES SUGGERENT UNE PLONGEE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, PUIS
VERS LE SUD VOIR SUD-EST A PARTIR DU VENDREDI/SAMEDI. NEANMOINS IL
RESTE ENCORE UNE FORTE DISPERSION SUR CE NOUVEAU VIRAGE. LA PREVISION
DU CMRS SE BASE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES
DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, APRES L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT OBSERVE CE LUNDI,
L'ACCELERATION DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST DANS LA DIRECTION DU
CISAILLEMENT (QUI RESTE FAIBLE) DEVRAIT L'AFFRANCHIR D'AUTRES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC. IL BENEFICIERA ALORS D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE ET D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE FAVORABLE. CELA DEVRAIT
FAVORISER UNE REPRISE DE L'INTENSIFICATION DES CE MARDI ET JUSQU'A
JEUDI OU VENDREDI. EN TOUTE FIN D'ECHEANCE, UNE POSSIBLE HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST/NORD-OUEST EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG POURRAIT AMORCER
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT.

DURANT LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS, HABANA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACES POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 081901
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/13/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 80.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/09 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2021/03/09 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/10 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/10 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/11 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/11 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/12 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2021/03/13 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, HABANA'S PATTERN HAD A MIXED EVOLUTION. AFTER
GETTING WARMER TOPS AND LOOSING ITS SMALL EYE, DEEP CONVECTION BURSTS
AGAIN NEAR THE CENTER. 1318Z SSMIS MICROWAVE DATA STILL SHOW THE
EFFECT OF THE NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR ON THE INNER CORE. HOWEVER ITS
RESOLUTION MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO DISTINGUISH THE SMALL EYE.
FINALLY SMAP AND SMOS AFTERNOON SWATHS SHOW RESPECTIVELY 64 AND 59KT.
THIS SUGGEST THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL PRESENT IN HABANA
CIRCULATION.

HABANA IS STARTING TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD, UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. TOMORROW, A NEW
RIDGE SETTLING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD INFLECT THE
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS, THE
LAST AVAILABLE GUIDANCES REINFORCED AGAIN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT WHICH
HAS BEEN TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. FROM THURSDAY, MOST MODELS SUGGEST A
SOUTHWESTWARD, THEN SOUTHWARD OR EVEN SOUTHEASTWARD DIVE FROM
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A STRONG SPREAD AMONG THE
GUIDANCE ON THIS NEW TURN. THE RSMC'S FORECAST IS BASED ON A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, AFTER THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED THIS
MONDAY, THE WESTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE WIND SHEAR (WHICH REMAINS WEAK) SHOULD FREE IT FROM OTHER DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS. IT WILL THEN BENEFIT FROM GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
FAVORABLE OCEANIC POTENTIAL. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD THUS RESUME AS
FROM TUESDAY AND UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. AT THE VERY END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
AHEAD OF A TROUGH COULD WEAKEN HABANA.
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 081817
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/03/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/03/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 976 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 80.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 130 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/09 AT 06 UTC:
18.4 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/09 AT 18 UTC:
18.0 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 081255
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 08/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.4 S / 80.9 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 979 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/03/2021 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 195 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

24H: 09/03/2021 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 185 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

36H: 10/03/2021 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 10/03/2021 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 11/03/2021 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 11/03/2021 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 195 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/03/2021 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

120H: 13/03/2021 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 90 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 40 SO: 50 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0;CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION D'HABANA S'EST
ENCORE TRES LEGEREMENT DEGRADEE. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES
DISPONIBLES (AMSR2 DE 0829Z, SSMI DE 1005Z) MONTRENT UN COEUR MOINS
BIEN STRUCTURE QUE CE MATIN ET ATTAQUE SUR SON FLANC EST PAR UNE
INTRUSION D'AIR SEC. L'OEIL DU SYSTEME EST RESTE DISCERNABLE
SEULEMENT EN IMAGERIE VISIBLE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK PLAIDE POUR UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT, TENDANCE QUI EST AUSSI CONFIRMEE PAR LES ESTIMATIONS
OBJECTIVES. L'INTENSITE EST DONC ESTIMEE A 65KT EN ATTENDANT DE VOIR
SI LA DEGRADATION DETECTEE EN MICRO-ONDES SE REPERCUTERA OU PAS SUR
SON ASPECT EN IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, HABANA EST EN TRAIN DE TERMINER SON VIRAGE
ET S'APPRETE A ACCELERER SON MOUVEMENT DE NOUVEAU VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
SUD-EST DU CYCLONE. A PARTIR DE MARDI, UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE
S'INSTALLANT AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT INFLECHIR LA TRAJECTOIRE
DAVANTAGE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST. PAR RAPPORT AUX PRECEDENTES
PREVISIONS, LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES ONT RENFORCE LA
REMONTEE VERS LE NORD-OUEST ENTRE MARDI ET MERCREDI EN LIEN AVEC UNE
DORSALE PLUS SOLIDE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. CE CHANGEMENT A ETE PRIS
EN COMPTE DANS LA PREVISION DU CMRS. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, LA PLUPART
DES MODELES SUGGERENT UNE PLONGEE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, PUIS VERS LE SUD
A PARTIR DU VENDREDI. NEANMOINS IL RESTE UNE FORTE DISPERSION ENTRE
MODELES CONCERNANT CE NOUVEAU VIRAGE. LA PREVISION DU CMRS SE BASE
SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, APRES L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT OBSERVE CE LUNDI,
L'ACCELERATION DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST DANS LA DIRECTION DU
CISAILLEMENT (QUI RESTE FAIBLE) DEVRAIT L'AFFRANCHIR D'AUTRES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC. IL BENEFICIERA ALORS D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE ET D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE FAVORABLE. CELA DEVRAIT
FAVORISER UNE REPRISE DE L'INTENSIFICATION DES CE MARDI ET JUSQU'A
JEUDI OU VENDREDI. EN TOUTE FIN D'ECHEANCE, UNE POSSIBLE HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST/NORD-OUEST EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG POURRAIT AMORCER
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT.

DURANT LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS, HABANA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACES POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 081255
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/13/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 80.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/09 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/09 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/10 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/10 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/11 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/11 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/12 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2021/03/13 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 40 SW: 50 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0;CI=4.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, HABANA'S PATTERN HAS KEPT SLIGHTLY
DETERIORATING. THE LAST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGES (AMSR2 OF 0829Z,
SSMI OF 1005Z) SHOW A CORE LESS WELL STRUCTURED THAN THIS MORNING AND
ATTACKED ON ITS EASTERN FLANK BY AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR. THE EYE OF
THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISCERNIBLE ONLY IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. DVORAK
ANALYSIS PLEADS FOR A WEAKENING, A TREND WHICH IS ALSO CONFIRMED BY
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED AT 65KT,
WHILE WAITING TO SEE IF THE DEGRADATION DETECTED IN MICROWAVES WILL
BE REFLECTED OR NOT IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY.

HABANA IS COMPLETING ITS U-TURN AND PREPARING TO ACCELERATE AGAIN IN
A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. FROM TUESDAY, A NEW RIDGE
SETTLING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD INFLECT THE TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS, THE LAST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCES HAVE REINFORCED THE EQUATORWARD MOVEMENT BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN CONNECTION WITH A STRONGER RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS CHANGE HAS BEEN TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN
THE RSMC'S FORECAST. FROM THURSDAY, MOST MODELS SUGGEST A
SOUTHWESTWARD DIVE, AND THEN SOUTHWARD FROM FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS
THERE IS STILL A STRONG DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS ABOUT THIS TRACK.
THE RSMC'S FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, AFTER THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED THIS
MONDAY, THE WESTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE WIND SHEAR (WHICH REMAINS WEAK) SHOULD FREE IT FROM OTHER DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS. IT WILL THEN BENEFIT FROM GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
FAVORABLE OCEANIC POTENTIAL. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD THUS RESUME AS
FROM TUESDAY AND UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. AT THE VERY END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
AHEAD OF A TROUGH COULD INITIATE HABANA'S WEAKENING.

OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 081219
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/03/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/03/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 979 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 80.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/09 AT 00 UTC:
18.7 S / 79.8 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/09 AT 12 UTC:
18.4 S / 78.6 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080651
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 08/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.3 S / 81.0 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 50 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/03/2021 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 09/03/2021 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 09/03/2021 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 10/03/2021 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 10/03/2021 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 11/03/2021 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/03/2021 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 13/03/2021 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SO: 305 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SO: 80 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5;CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE HABANA
A CONTINUE DE FLUCTUER ENTRE UNE CONFIGURATION CDO ET UNE
CONFIGURATION A OEIL FROID. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDE (SSMI/S A
0043Z, GMI A 0526Z) METTENT EN EVIDENCE UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC AU
SUD/SUD-EST DU SYSTEME ET LAISSENT PENSER A UNE POSSIBILITE DE CYCLE
DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL. CEPENDANT LA PRESENCE DE L'AIR SEC
REND CE DIAGNOSTIC PEU EVIDENT. UNE PASSE SMAP A 0023Z ESTIMAIT LES
VENTS MAX A 75KT. DE PLUS, LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK OBJECTIVES ET
SUBJECTIVES INDIQUENT UNE BAISSE DU DT AUTOUR DE 4.5. L'INTENSITE EST
DONC ESTIMEE A 70KT.

LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE SE CONFIRME, AVEC UN VIRAGE QUI EST EN TRAIN DE
SE FAIRE AVANT DE REPARTIR VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE
GRANDISSANTE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD-EST DU CYCLONE.
LA TRAJECTOIRE VA PRENDRE UNE DIRECTION GENERALE VERS L'OUEST A
PARTIR DE CE LUNDI SOIR. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, LA PLUPART DES MODELES
SUGGERENT UNE PLONGEE VERS LE SUD-OUEST A PARTIR DE JEUDI PUIS VERS
LE SUD A PARTIR DU VENDREDI, MAIS IL RESTE UNE ASSEZ FORTE DISPERSION
ENTRE MODELES CONCERNANT LE TIMING DE CE NOUVEAU VIRAGE. LA PREVISION
DU CMRS SE BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES
DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, HABANA DEVRAIT ENCORE TEMPORAIREMENT
S'AFFAIBLIR A COURT TERME SUITE A L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC DANS LE SUD
DU SYSTEME, AU POSSIBLE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DU L'OEIL ET AU
LEGER RALENTISSEMENT DU CYCLONE, LE TEMPS D'ACHEVER SON VIRAGE VERS
L'OUEST. NEANMOINS, IL PROGRESSERA ENSUITE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT OU
LE CISAILLEMENT RESTE FAIBLE ET AVEC UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE.
EN REPARTANT VERS L'OUEST, IL DEVRAIT ETRE MOINS SOUMIS AUX
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC ET BENEFICIERA D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
FAVORABLE. CELA DEVRAIT FAVORISER UNE REPRISE DE L'INTENSIFICATION DE
HABANA A PARTIR DE MARDI. EN TOUTE FIN D'ECHEANCE, UNE POSSIBLE
HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST/NORD-OUEST EN MARGE D'UN TALWEG
POURRAIT AMORCER UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT.

DURANT LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS, HABANA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACES POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080651
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/13/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 81.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/08 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2021/03/09 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2021/03/09 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/10 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/10 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/11 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/12 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2021/03/13 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 305 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SW: 80 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5;CI=5.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, HABANA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS KEPT FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN A CDO PATTERN AND A COLD EYE PATTERN. THE LAST MICROWAVE
IMAGES (SSMI/S AT 0043Z, GMI AT 0526Z) SHOW A DRY AIR INTRUSION IN
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). NEVERTHELESS, THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR MAKES
THIS DIAGNOSIS UNCLEAR. A SMAP PASS AT 0023Z ESTIMATED MAX WINDS AT
75KT. MOREOVER, OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS SHOW A
DECREASE OF THE DT DOWN TO AROUND 4.5. THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY IS THUS
SET AT 70KT.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS CONFIRMED, WITH A U-TURN CURRENTLY HAPPENING,
BEFORE MOVING BACK SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. WITH THE RIDGE
RE-BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, THE TRACK WILL THEN TAKE A
GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION BY MONDAY EVENING. AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, MOST GUIDANCES SUGGEST A TRACK TO THE SOUTH-WEST
FROM THURSDAY THEN TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A
STRONG DISPERSION AMONG AVAILABLE MODELS. THE RSMC'S FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCES.

HABANA'S INTENSITY SHOULD TEMPORARILY KEEP SLIGHTLY DECREASING IN THE
SHORT RUN, BECAUSE OF THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM AND OF A POSSIBLE ERC, AND ALSO DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT
DURING THE U-TURN. NONETHELESS, IT WILL THEN MOVE INTO A VERY LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IN GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. WHILE MOVING BACK
WESTWARDS, DRY AIR INTRUSIONS COULD DECREASE AND THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN VERY GOOD. ALL THESE INGREDIENTS SHOULD HELP IT
REGAIN STRENGTH FROM TUESDAY. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
INCREASED WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH COULD
START TO TRIGGER HABANA'S WEAKENING.

OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 080631
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/03/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/03/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 976 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 81.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/08 AT 18 UTC:
18.8 S / 80.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/09 AT 06 UTC:
18.9 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080050
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 08/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.0 S / 81.0 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 962 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/03/2021 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

24H: 09/03/2021 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 195 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55

36H: 09/03/2021 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

48H: 10/03/2021 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

60H: 10/03/2021 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 11/03/2021 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/03/2021 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 65

120H: 13/03/2021 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE HABANA
FLUCTUE ENTRE UNE CONFIGURATION CDO ET UNE CONFIGURATION A OEIL
FROID. LES SOMMETS DES NUAGES EVOLUENT AUSSI AVEC UN LEGER
RECHAUFFEMENT. EN PRENANT EN COMPTE CETTE OSCILLATION ENTRE LES DEUX
CONFIGURATIONS, ON PEUT CONSIDERER QUE HABANA SE MAINTEINT EN
INTENSITE AVEC UN CI DE 5.5- LE LAISSANT AU SEUIL DE CYCLONE
TROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 85KT. LA TAILLE REDUITE DE
HABANA RESTE LE CARACTERE PRINCIPAL ET LES FLUCTUATIONS D'INTENSITE
EN SONT LA PREUVE, LE SYSTEME EVOLUANT BEAUCOUP EN FONCTION DE SON
ENVIRONNEMENT. LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES DE 2158UTC MONTRENT UNE
DISSYMETRIE DANS LA CIRCULATION SUR LES BASSES ET MOYENNES COUCHES,
AVEC UNE EXTENSION DANS LA PARTIE SUD. CELA POURRAIT ETRE LE DEBUT
D'UN CYCLE DU MUR DE L'OEIL OU BIEN UNE REPONSE A L'EVOLUTION DU
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT QUI AUGMENTE TRES LEGEREMENT DANS LA PARTIE SUD.

POUR CE QUI EST DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, PAS DE CHANGEMENT.
HABANA POURSUIT SON VIRAGE EN RALENTISSANT. SOUS L'INFLUENCE
GRANDISSANTE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD-EST DU CYCLONE,
LA TRAJECTOIRE VA PRENDRE UNE DIRECTION GENERALE VERS L'OUEST EN FIN
DE JOURNEE DE LUNDI. IL EXISTE TOUJOURS UNE FORTE DISPERSION DES
MODELES DISPONIBLES SUR LE TIMING ET LA LOCALISATION EXACTS DU
DEMI-TOUR VERS L'OUEST MAIS AUSSI SUR LE COMPORTEMENT EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE. LE CMRS A OPTE POUR UNE PLONGEE VERS LE SUD EN TOUTE FIN
D'ECHEANCE C'EST-A-DIRE VENDREDI.

AVEC LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD QUI DEVRAIT FAIBLIR PLUS
FRANCHEMENT DANS LES 12 PROCHAINES HEURES, L'INTENSIFICATION DE
HABANA POURRAIT REPRENDRE A PARTIR DE MARDI, UNE FOIS SON DEPLACEMENT
VERS L'OUEST ENTAME. TOUTEFOIS L'APPARITION D'UN CYCLE DU MUR DE
L'OEIL A PLUS COURTE ECHEANCE MODIFIERAIT CETTE PREVISION EN
FAVORISANT UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS MARQUE SUIVI D'UNE
RE-INTENSIFICATION. UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS LENT QUI PERSISTERAIT
POURRAIT DE NOUVEAU LIMITER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME PAR MANQUE DE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. DANS CE CONTEXTE, LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST
PARTICULIEREMENT INCERTAINE. SUIVANT LE SCENARIO D'ABSENCE DE
CONTRAINTES MAJEURES, LE CMRS OPTE SUR UN POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION
PRESERVE. HABANA DEVRAIT S'INTENSIFIER DE NOUVEAU AU SEUIL DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE AVANT DE S'AFFAIBLIR PLUS NETTEMENT A PARTIR DE
JEUDI SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST EN HAUSSE A L'AVANT D'UN
TALWEG.

DURANT LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS, HABANA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACES POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080050
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/13/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 81.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/08 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/09 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/09 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/10 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/10 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/11 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/12 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 65

120H: 2021/03/13 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION OF HABANA FLUCTUATES
BETWEEN A CDO PATTERN AND A COLD EYE PATTERN. THE CLOUD TOPS ALSO
EVOLVE WITH A SLIGHT WARMING. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THIS OSCILLATION
BETWEEN THE TWO PATTERNS, WE CAN CONSIDER THAT HABANA MAINTAINS ITS
INTENSITY WITH A CI OF 5.5- LEAVING IT AT THE THRESHOLD OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITH WINDS OF AROUND 85KT. THE REDUCED SIZE OF HABANA REMAINS
THE MAIN CHARACTERISTIC AND THE INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE THE PROOF
OF IT, THE SYSTEM EVOLVING A LOT ACCORDING TO ITS ENVIRONMENT. THE
MICROWAVE DATA OF 2158UTC SHOW AN ASYMMETRY IN THE CIRCULATION ON THE
LOW AND MIDDLE LAYERS, WITH AN EXTENSION IN THE SOUTHERN PART. THIS
COULD BE THE BEGINNING OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OR A RESPONSE
TO THE EVOLUTION OF WIND SHEAR WHICH INCREASES VERY SLIGHTLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PART.

AS FAR AS THE TRACK FORECAST IS CONCERNED, NO CHANGE. HABANA
CONTINUES ITS TURN BY SLOWING DOWN. UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE, THE TRACK WILL
TAKE A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION BY THE END OF THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE IS STILL A STRONG DISPERSION OF AVAILABLE MODELS ON THE EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE TURN WESTWARD AND AT A LONGER RANGE. THE
RSMC HAS OPTED FOR A SOUTHWARD TURN AT FRIDAY.

WITH THE SHEARING OF THE NORTHERN SECTOR WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN MORE
FRANKLY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE INTENSIFICATION OF HABANA COULD
RESUME FROM TUESDAY, ONCE ITS MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE WEST HAS BEGUN.
HOWEVER, THE APPEARANCE OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AT A
SHORTER-TERM WOULD CHANGE THIS FORECAST BY FAVOURING A MORE MARKED
WEAKENING FOLLOWED BY A RE-INTENSIFICATION. A PERSISTENT SLOWER
DISPLACEMENT COULD AGAIN LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE
LACK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN. ACCORDING TO THE SCENARIO OF NO MAJOR
CONSTRAINTS, THE RSMC OPTS FOR A PRESERVED INTENSIFICATION POTENTIAL.
HABANA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AGAIN AT THE THRESHOLD OF AN INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE WEAKENING MORE MARKEDLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS
UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE RISING WESTERLY SHEAR AT THE FRONT OF A
TROUGH.

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO THE INHABITED
LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 080014
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/03/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/03/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 962 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 81.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/08 AT 12 UTC:
18.7 S / 80.7 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/09 AT 00 UTC:
18.9 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071855
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 07/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.6 S / 80.6 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 962 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/03/2021 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 08/03/2021 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SO: 195 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 09/03/2021 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 09/03/2021 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

60H: 10/03/2021 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 10/03/2021 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/03/2021 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 280 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 12/03/2021 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SO: 285 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL D'HABANA A
CONTINUER DE SE DEGRADER POUR EVOLUER EN CONFIGURATION CDO. LES
SOMMETS CONTINUENT CEPENDANT DE RESTER BIEN FROIDS DANS LE SECTEUR
NORD DU CDO ALORS QUE LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 1331UTC
MONTRAIENT QUE LA CIRCULATION EN BASSES COUCHES RESTAIT ENCORE BIEN
SYMETRIQUE. PAR INERTIE ET EN CONSERVANT UNE ANALYSE DVORAK DE 5.5-,
ON PEUT ENCORE ESTIMER DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 85KT, LAISSANT HABANA
AU SEUIL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.

POUR CE QUI EST DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, PAS DE CHANGEMENT.
HABANA A ENTAME SON VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST ET POURSUIVRA UNE
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD AU COURS DE PROCHAINES 12H EN RALENTISSANT.
SOUS L'INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU
SUD-EST DU CYCLONE, LA TRAJECTOIRE VA PRENDRE UNE DIRECTION GENERALE
VERS L'OUEST EN FIN DE JOURNEE DE LUNDI. IL EXISTE TOUJOURS UNE FORTE
DISPERSION DES MODELES DISPONIBLES SUR LE TIMING ET LA LOCALISATION
EXACTS DU DEMI-TOUR VERS L'OUEST MAIS AUSSI SUR LE COMPORTEMENT EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE. LE CMRS A OPTE POUR UNE PLONGEE VERS LE SUD EN TOUTE
FIN D'ECHEANCE C'EST-A-DIRE VENDREDI.

LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD DEVRAIT COMMENCER A FAIBLIR
PROCHAINEMENT CE QUI POURRAIT AIDER HABANA A S'INTENSIFIER A NOUVEAU
A PARTIR DE MARDI, UNE FOIS SON DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST ENTAME. UN
DEPLACEMENT PLUS LENT QUI PERSISTERAIT POURRAIT DE NOUVEAU LIMITER
L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME PAR MANQUE DE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. DANS CE
CONTEXTE, RENFORCE PAR LA POTENTIELLE SURVENUE D'UN CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL ET LA PETITE TAILLE DU PHENOMENE, LA
PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST PARTICULIEREMENT INCERTAINE. SUIVANT LE
SCENARIO D'ABSENCE DE CONTRAINTES MAJEURES, LE CMRS OPTE SUR UN
POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION PRESERVE. HABANA DEVRAIT S'INTENSIFIER DE
NOUVEAU AU SEUIL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AVANT DE S'AFFAIBLIR
PLUS NETTEMENT A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST
EN HAUSSE A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG.

DURANT LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS, HABANA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACES POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071855
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/13/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 80.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/08 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/08 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/09 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/09 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/10 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/10 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/11 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 280 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2021/03/12 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 285 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE HABANA EYE PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
DEGRADE TO EVOLVE INTO A CDO PATTERN. THE CLOUD TOPS HOWEVER CONTINUE
TO REMAIN VERY COLD IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF CDO WHILE THE MICROWAVE
TRANSMITTED DATA FROM 1331UTC SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WAS STILL QUITE SYMMETRICAL. BY INERTIA AND KEEPING A DVORAK ANALYSIS
OF 5.5-, WE CAN STILL ESTIMATE WINDS OF ABOUT 85KT, LEAVING HABANA AT
THE THRESHOLD OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

AS FAR AS THE TRACK FORECAST IS CONCERNED, NO CHANGE. HABANA HAS
STARTED ITS TURN TO THE SOUTH-EAST AND WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHWARD
TRACK DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS BY SLOWING DOWN. UNDER THE GROWING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE,
THE TRACK WILL TAKE A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION BY THE END OF THE
DAY ON MONDAY. THERE IS STILL A STRONG DISPERSION OF AVAILABLE MODELS
ON THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE TURN WESTWARD AND AT A LONGER
RANGE. THE RSMC HAS OPTED FOR A SOUTHWARD TURN AT FRIDAY.

THE NORTHERN SHEAR SHOULD START TO WEAKEN SOON WHICH COULD HELP
HABANA TO INTENSIFY AGAIN FROM TUESDAY, ONCE HIS WESTWARD MOVEMENT
HAS STARTED. A PERSISTENT SLOWER DISPLACEMENT COULD AGAIN LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE LACK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL. IN THIS
CONTEXT, REINFORCED BY THE POTENTIAL OCCURRENCE OF AN EYE WALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND THE SMALL SIZE OF THE PHENOMENON, THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN. ACCORDING TO THE SCENARIO OF NO
MAJOR CONSTRAINTS, THE RSMC OPTS FOR A PRESERVED INTENSIFICATION
POTENTIAL. HABANA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AGAIN AT THE THRESHOLD OF
AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE WEAKENING MORE MARKEDLY FROM
THURSDAY ONWARDS UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE RISING WESTERLY SHEAR AT THE
FRONT OF A TROUGH.

DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DO NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED ISLAND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 071809
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/03/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 07/03/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 962 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 80.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/08 AT 06 UTC:
18.3 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/08 AT 18 UTC:
18.8 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 070900 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 007A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 007A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 79.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 79.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.5S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.2S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.6S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.8S 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.5S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 18.9S 72.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 20.2S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 79.2E.
07MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE(TC) 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
704 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM THAT MAINTAINED DEEP, SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST AND A PINHOLE 5-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE, ADJUSTED FOR A SLIGHT
SOUTHEASTWARD TILT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115KTS IS BASED ON THE
PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0/115KTS AND SUPPORTED
BY THE SATCON ESTIMATE OF 111KTS. TC 24S IS IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS IN A COL BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SECONDARY NER TO THE EAST THAT IS
SLIGHTLY THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND SLOWLY DRIVING THE
CYCLONE POLEWARD. AFTER TAU 24, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WILL BUILD
TO THE SOUTH AND ASSUME STEERING, TURNING TC 24S TO A WESTWARD TRACK
THEN, AFTER TAU 96, WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
PRIMARILY DUE TO DIMINISHING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND BY TAU 36-48,
WILL BE REDUCED TO 85KTS. AFTER TAU 48, INCREASED OUTFLOW FROM THE
STR WILL FUEL A SECONDARY INTENSIFICATION PHASE AND BY TAU 120, WILL
RE-STRENGTHEN TO 105KTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG- AND CROSS-TRACK DUE TO THE
COMPLEX STEERING MECHANISMS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND
080900Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO
115KTS IN REMARKS.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071341
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 07/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.2 S / 80.3 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/6.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 957 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/03/2021 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

24H: 08/03/2021 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

36H: 09/03/2021 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 215 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 09/03/2021 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

60H: 10/03/2021 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 10/03/2021 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/03/2021 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

120H: 12/03/2021 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SO: 80 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0 CI=6.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL D'HABANA,
S'EST NETTEMENT DEGRADEE. MALGRE DES SOMMETS PLUS FROIDS, L'OEIL A
PERDU EN DEFINTION ET A QUASIMENT DISPARU EN IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE. LES
IMAGES MICRO-ONDES TEMOIGNENT DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA CIRCULATION
INTERNE AVEC UN MUR DE L'OEIL QUASIMENT ABSENT EN 89GHZ DANS LE
QUADRANT SUD-EST (SSMIS 1110Z). CEPENDANT LA CIRCULATION DE BASSE
COUCHE EN 37GHZ APPARAIT ENCORE SOLIDE. LE CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE A
MODERE DE SECTEUR NORD-NORD-EST SEMBLE ETRE LE RESPONSABLE DE CETTE
AFFAIBLISSEMENT FACILITE PAR LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME.


PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE
FAITE PAR LE CMRS : HABANA POURSUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DE L'EST-SUD-EST S'ORIENTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST
AU COURS DU WEEK-END, PILOTEE PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE. EN
FIN DE JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AVANT DE
GRADUELLEMENT TOURNER VERS L'OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE QUI REGONFLE AU SUD-EST DU METEORE. IL EXISTE TOUJOURS
UNE FORTE DISPERSION DES MODELES DISPONIBLES SUR LE TIMING ET
LOCALISATION EXACTS DU DEMI-TOUR VERS L'OUEST ET LE COMPORTEMENT EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE.

LA NUIT PROCHAINE ET DEMAIN, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD DEVRAIT
COMMENCER A FAIBLIR CE QUI POURRAIT AIDER HABANA A S'INTENSIFIER A
NOUVEAU EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE. CEPENDANT HABANA DEVRAIT EGALEMENT SE
DEPLACER PLUTOT LENTEMENT DANS CE LAPS DE TEMPS. IL N'EST DONC PAS
IMPOSSIBLE QU'UN REFROIDISSEMENT DES SST PUISSE INTERVENIR. DANS CE
CONTEXTE, RENFORCE PAR LA POTENTIELLE SURVENUE D'UN CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL ET LA PETITE TAILLE DU PHENOMENE, LA
PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST PARTICULIEREMENT INCERTAINE.
EN L'ABSENCE DE CONTRAINTE MAJEUR, HABANA DEVRAIT CONSERVER UNE FORTE
INTENSITE SUR LA PERIODE, NOTAMMENT EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE AU
SEIN DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES A TOUT POINT DE VUE. EN FIN D'ECEHANCE,
LE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST EN HAUSSE A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG POURRAIT
COMMENCER A AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME

DURANT LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS, HABANA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACES POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071341
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 80.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/6.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 957 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/08 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/08 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/09 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 215 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2021/03/09 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/10 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/10 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/11 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

120H: 2021/03/12 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=6.0-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, HABANA EYE PATTERN DECAYED SIGNIFICANTLY.
DESPITE THE COLDER TOPS, THE EYE LOST DEFINITION AND NEARLY
DISSAPEARED IN CLASSICAL IMAGERY. MICROWAVE DATA CONFIRM THE
WEAKENING OF THE INNER CORE ESPECIALLY, THE EYEWALL IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT (SSMIS 1110Z) WITH THE 89GHZ. THE LOWER INNER
CORE LOOKS HOWEVER RATHER HEALTHY IN 37GHZ. THE WEAK TO MODERATE
NORTH-NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR SEEMS THE MORE LIKELY REASON OF THIS
DECAY, PROBABLY FAVORED BY THE SMALL SIZE OF HABANA.

NO CHANGE IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK FORECAST MADE BY THE RSMC:
HABANA IS FOLLOWING A TRACK IN A GENERAL EAST-SOUTH DIRECTION,
GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTH-EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND, DRIVEN BY THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AT THE END OF SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BEFORE GRADUALLY
TURNING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH
IS RE-INFLATING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE METEOR. THERE IS STILL A
STRONG DISPERSION OF AVAILABLE MODELS ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE TURN WESTWARD AND A LONGER RANGE.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, THE NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GET WEAKER,
WHICH MAY HELP HABANA START INTENSIFYING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER DURING THIS PERIOD, HABANA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY.
SO IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A COOLING OF THE SST MAY OCCUR. IN THIS
CONTEXT, GIVEN THAT AN ERC MAY START AND THE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE,
INTENSITY FORECAST IS REALLY UNCERTAIN.
WITH NO MAJOR FLAW IN THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE MAIN PERIOD, HABANA
SHOULD MAINTAIN A STRONG INTENSITY ESPECIALLY MID NEXT WEEK, WITHIN A
VERY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT. AT THE LATEST RANGE, THE INCREASING
WESTERLY SHEAR MAY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.


DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DO NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED ISLAND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 071237
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/03/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 07/03/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 957 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 80.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/08 AT 00 UTC:
17.9 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/08 AT 12 UTC:
18.7 S / 80.3 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 070723
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 07/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.9 S / 79.7 E
(SEIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 950 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 60 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/03/2021 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

24H: 08/03/2021 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

36H: 08/03/2021 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 195 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 09/03/2021 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

60H: 09/03/2021 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 10/03/2021 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/03/2021 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 12/03/2021 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 100 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL D'HABANA,
S'EST PROGRESSIVEMENT DEGRADEE AVEC DES SOMMETS PLUS CHAUDS ET UNE
FAIBLESSE EN IMAGERIE INFRAROUGE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. LA PRESENCE
D'UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE A MODERE DE SECTEUR NORD-NORD-EST POURRAIT
ETRE UNE RAISON DE CE LEGER AFFAIBLISSMEENT. LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES
(SSMIS 0056Z) SUGGERE EGALEMENT LE DEBUT D'UN POSSIBLE CYCLE DE
REMPALCMEENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL. LE PRODUIT MPERC DU CIMSS PROPOSE
D'AILLEURS 60% DE CHANCES POUR LE DEBUT D'UN ERC.


PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE
FAITE PAR LE CMRS : HABANA POURSUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DE L'EST-SUD-EST S'ORIENTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST
AU COURS DU WEEK-END, PILOTEE PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE. EN
FIN DE JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AVANT DE
GRADUELLEMENT TOURNER VERS L'OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE QUI REGONFLE AU SUD-EST DU METEORE. IL EXISTE TOUJOURS
UNE FORTE DISPERSION DES MODELES DISPONIBLES SUR LE TIMING ET
LOCALISATION EXACTS DU DEMI-TOUR VERS L'OUEST ET LE COMPORTEMENT EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE.

AUJOURD'HUI ET DEMAIN HABANA DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER PLUTOT LENTEMENT. IL
N'EST DONC PAS IMPOSSIBLE QU'UN REFROIDISSEMENT DES SST PUISSE
INTERVENIR. CE RISQUE ASSOCIE A LA POSSIBILITE D'UN ERC OU D'UN
IMPACT PLUS MARQUE DU CISAILLEMENT LAISSE PENSER QU'UNE TENDANCE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DANS LES PROCHAINES 36H EST PROBABLE.
MALGRE TOUT, EN L'ABSENCE DE CONTRAINTE MAJEUR, HABANA DEVRAIT
CONSERVER UNE FORTE INTENSITE SUR LA PERIODE, NOTAMMENT EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE OU LE DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST L'AMENE AU SEIN DE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLES A TOUT POINT DE VUE. LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE
EST RENDUE INCERTAINE PAR LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME ET PAR LA
POSSIBLE SURVENUE D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL QU'IL
EST TOUTEFOIS IMPOSSIBLE D'ANTICIPER TRES LONGTEMPS A L'AVANCE.

DANS LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS, HABANA NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACES POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 070723
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 79.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/07 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2021/03/08 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/08 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2021/03/09 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/09 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2021/03/10 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/11 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2021/03/12 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, HABANA EYE PATTERN WORSENED A BIT WITH
WARMER TOPS AND A WEAKNESS IN THE EASTERN EYEWALL IN INFRARED IMAGES.
THE PRESENCE A WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTH-EATSERLY SHEAR MAY BE A
GOOD EXPLANATION OF THIS LITTLE WEAKENING. 0056Z SSMIS DATA MAY ALSO
SUGGEST THE ONSET OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. CIMSS MPERC GIVE
THIS SCENARIO A 60% PROBABILITY OF HAPPENING.

NO CHANGE IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK FORECAST MADE BY THE RSMC:
HABANA IS FOLLOWING A TRACK IN A GENERAL EAST-SOUTH DIRECTION,
GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTH-EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND, DRIVEN BY THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AT THE END OF SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BEFORE GRADUALLY
TURNING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH
IS RE-INFLATING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE METEOR. THERE IS STILL A
STRONG DISPERSION OF AVAILABLE MODELS ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE TURN WESTWARD AND A LONGER RANGE.

TODAY AND TOMORROW, HABANA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY. SO IT IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE THAT A COOLING OF THE SST MAY OCCUR. THIS RISK ASSOCIATED
WITH A POSSIBLE ERC OR AN EVENTUAL SLIGHT INCREASE OF THE SHEAR
IMPACT SUGGEST THAT A WEAKENING TREND DURING THE NEXT 36HOURS IS
LIKELY.
NEVERTHELESS, WITH NO MAJOR FLAW IN THE ENVIRONMENT HABANA SHOULD
MAINTAIN A STRONG INTENSITY OVER THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY AT LONGER
RANGE WHEN THE RESUMPTION OF THE WESTWARD MOTION WILL BRING IT INTO A
VERY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT. INTENSITY PREDICTION IS MADE UNCERTAIN BY
THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND BY THE POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE OF AN EYE
WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT CANNOT BE ANTICIPATED VERY FAR IN
ADVANCE.

DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DO NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED ISLAND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 070627
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/03/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 07/03/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 950 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 79.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/07 AT 18 UTC:
17.4 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/08 AT 06 UTC:
18.1 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 070024
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/03/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 07/03/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 943 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 79.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/07 AT 12 UTC:
17.2 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/08 AT 00 UTC:
17.7 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 070118
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 07/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.7 S / 79.1 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 943 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 60 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/03/2021 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 55

24H: 08/03/2021 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 08/03/2021 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

48H: 09/03/2021 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 09/03/2021 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

72H: 10/03/2021 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/03/2021 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SO: 220 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

120H: 12/03/2021 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SO: 80 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=6.0- CI=6.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL D'HABANA,
APRES S'ETRE LEGEREMENT DETERIOREE SUITE AU RESEAU PRECEDENT, EST
REDEVENUE STABLE AUX ALENTOURS DE 6.0 ... AVEC CETTE FOIS-CI UNE
TENDANCE A L'AMELIORATION JUSTE APRES 00Z. L'INTENSITE EST ABAISSEE A
105 KT EN ACCORD AVEC L'ESTIMATION DVORAK SUBJECTIVE DU CMRS ET
L'ADT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE
FAITE PAR LE CMRS : HABANA POURSUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DE L'EST-SUD-EST S'ORIENTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST
AU COURS DU WEEK-END, PILOTEE PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE. EN
FIN DE JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AVANT DE
GRADUELLEMENT TOURNER VERS L'OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE QUI REGONFLE AU SUD-EST DU METEORE. IL EXISTE TOUJOURS
UNE FORTE DISPERSION DES MODELES DISPONIBLES SUR LE TIMING ET
LOCALISATION EXACTS DU DEMI-TOUR VERS L'OUEST.

HABANA RENCONTRE UN PEU DE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST AYANT UN PEU
BAISSE DANS LA NUIT. CE CISAILLEMENT N'EST PAS PREVU S'AMPLIFIER MAIS
AU COURS DES DEUX PROCHAINS JOURS, IL POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS CONTRIBUER A
DESSINER UNE TENDANCE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT. HABANA DEVRAIT SE
DEPLACER PLUTOT LENTEMENT ET IL N'EST PAS IMPOSSIBLE QU'UN
REFROIDISSEMENT DES SST PUISSE INTERVENIR. L'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE SEMBLE S'ENROULER AUTOUR DU SYSTEME PAR LE SECTEUR OUEST
ET NORD SANS PENETRER DANS LE SYSTEME. HABANA DEVRAIT CONSERVER UNE
FORTE INTENSITE SUR LA PERIODE, PUISQU'AVEC LA REPRISE DU DEPLACEMENT
VERS L'OUEST LES CONDITIONS APPARAISSENT FAVORABLES SANS CISAILLEMENT
SIGNIFICATIF ET UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE EST RENDUE INCERTAINE PAR LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME ET
PAR LA POSSIBLE SURVENUE D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL
QU'IL EST TOUTEFOIS IMPOSSIBLE D'ANTICIPER TRES LONGTEMPS A L'AVANCE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 070118
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/07 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 79.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 943 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/07 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/08 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2021/03/08 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

48H: 2021/03/09 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2021/03/09 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

72H: 2021/03/10 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/11 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

120H: 2021/03/12 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0- CI=6.0+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONFIGURATION OF THE EYE OF HABANA,
AFTER A SLIGHT DETERIORATION DUE TO THE PREVIOUS NETWORK, HAS BECOME
STABLE AROUND 6.0 ... WITH THIS TIME A TENDENCY TO IMPROVE JUST AFTER
00Z. THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 105 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATION OF THE CMRS AND THE ADT.

NO CHANGE IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK FORECAST MADE BY THE RSMC:
HABANA IS FOLLOWING A TRACK IN A GENERAL EAST-SOUTH DIRECTION,
GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTH-EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND, DRIVEN BY THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AT THE END OF SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BEFORE GRADUALLY
TURNING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH
IS RE-INFLATING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE METEOR. THERE IS STILL A
STRONG DISPERSION OF AVAILABLE MODELS ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE TURN WESTWARD.

HABANA ENCOUNTERS A BIT OF NORTHEAST SHEAR, ALTHOUGH IT WAS LESS
MARQUED TONIGHT. THIS SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE, BUT OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS IT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING TREND. HABANA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE RATHER SLOWLY AND IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A
COOLING OF THE SST MAY OCCUR. DRY MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR SEEMS TO WRAP
AROUND THE SYSTEM FROM THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTORS WITHOUT ENTER
INTO THE CIRCULATION. HABANA SHOULD MAINTAIN A STRONG INTENSITY OVER
THE PERIOD, SINCE WITH THE RESUMPTION OF THE WESTWARD MOTION THE
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT SHEAR AND A
GOOD UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE. INTENSITY PREDICTION IS MADE UNCERTAIN
BY THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND BY THE POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE OF AN
EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT CANNOT BE ANTICIPATED VERY FAR IN
ADVANCE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 061906
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 06/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.5 S / 78.8 E
(SEIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 60 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/03/2021 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 07/03/2021 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 08/03/2021 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

48H: 08/03/2021 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 09/03/2021 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 195 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 45

72H: 09/03/2021 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 195 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/03/2021 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 11/03/2021 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=6.0 CI=6.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL D'HABANA A
PLUTOT ETRE STABLE. SUR LES TOUTES DERNIERES HEURES, UNE TENDANCE
PLUS MARQUEE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT SEMBLE SE DESSINER AVEC UN OEIL
PERDANT EN DEFINITION ET UN EXTENSION MOINDRE DES SOMMETS LES PLUS
FROIDS. AVEC UNE FAUCHEE SMAP VERS 13Z INDIANT DES VENTS A 111 KT,
L'INTENSITE FINALE EST LAISSEE A 110 KT.


PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE
FAITE PAR LE CMRS : HABANA POURSUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DE L'EST-SUD-EST S'ORIENTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST
AU COURS DU WEEK-END, PILOTEE PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE. EN
FIN DE JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AVANT DE
GRADUELLEMENT TOURNER VERS L'OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE QUI REGONFLE AU SUD-EST DU METEORE. IL EXISTE TOUJOURS
UNE FORTE DISPERSION DES MODELES DISPONIBLES SUR LE TIMING ET
LOCALISATION EXACTS DU DEMI-TOUR VERS L'OUEST.

HABANA RENCONTRE UN PEU DE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST. CE CISAILLEMENT
N'EST PAS PREVU S'AMPLIFIER MAIS AU COURS DES DEUX PROCHAINS JOURS,
IL POURRAIT CONTRIBUER A DESSINER UNE TENDANCE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT.
HABANA DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER PLUTOT LENTEMENT ET IL N'EST PAS
IMPOSSIBLE QU'UN REFROIDISSEMENT DES SST PUISSE INTERVENIR. L'AIR SEC
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SEMBLE S'ENROULER AUTOUR DU SYSTEME PAR LE
SECTEUR OUEST ET NORD. HABANA DEVRAIT TOUTEFOIS CONSERVER UNE FORTE
INTENSITE SUR LA PERIODE, PUISQU'AVEC LA REPRISE DU DEPLACEMENT VERS
L'OUEST LES CONDITIONS APPARAISSENT FAVORABLES SANS CISAILLEMENT
SIGNIFICATIFS ET UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE EST RENDUE INCERTAINE PAR LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME ET
PAR LA POSSIBLE SURVENUE D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL
QU'IL EST TOUTEFOIS IMPOSSIBLE D'ANTICIPER TRES LONGTEMPS A L'AVANCE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 061906
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 78.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/07 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2021/03/07 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2021/03/08 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

48H: 2021/03/08 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2021/03/09 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

72H: 2021/03/09 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/10 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2021/03/11 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0 CI=6.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE HABANA EYE CONFIGURATION HAS BEEN RATHER
STABLE. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, A MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING TREND
SEEMS TO BE TAKING PLACE WITH THE EYE LOSING DEFINITION AND LESS
EXTENSION OF THE COLDEST PEAKS. WITH A SMAP SWATH AROUND 13Z
INDICATING WINDS AT 111 KT, THE FINAL INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 110 KT.

NO CHANGE IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK FORECAST MADE BY THE RSMC:
HABANA IS FOLLOWING A TRACK IN A GENERAL EAST-SOUTH DIRECTION,
GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTH-EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND, DRIVEN BY THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AT THE END OF SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BEFORE GRADUALLY
TURNING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH
IS RE-INFLATING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE METEOR. THERE IS STILL A
STRONG DISPERSION OF AVAILABLE MODELS ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE TURN WESTWARD.

HABANA ENCOUNTERS A BIT OF NORTHEAST SHEAR. THIS SHEAR IS NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE, BUT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS IT COULD CONTRIBUTE
TO A WEAKENING TREND. HABANA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RATHER SLOWLY AND IT
IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A COOLING OF THE SST MAY OCCUR. DRY
MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR SEEMS TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM FROM THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN SECTORS. HABANA SHOULD NEVERTHELESS MAINTAIN A STRONG
INTENSITY OVER THE PERIOD, SINCE WITH THE RESUMPTION OF THE WESTWARD
MOTION THE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR AND A GOOD UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE. INTENSITY PREDICTION IS
MADE UNCERTAIN BY THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND BY THE POSSIBLE
OCCURRENCE OF AN EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT CANNOT BE
ANTICIPATED VERY FAR IN ADVANCE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 061837
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/03/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 06/03/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 78.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/07 AT 06 UTC:
16.9 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/07 AT 18 UTC:
17.3 S / 80.3 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 061216
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 06/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.3 S / 78.3 E
(SEIZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/03/2021 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 195 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 45

24H: 07/03/2021 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 165 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

36H: 08/03/2021 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

48H: 08/03/2021 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 45

60H: 09/03/2021 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

72H: 09/03/2021 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/03/2021 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

120H: 11/03/2021 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=6.0+ CI=6.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL D'HABANA
S'EST MAINTENUE MAIS PRESENTE UN PEU PLUS DE FLUCTUATIONS AVEC
NOTAMMENT UN OEIL QUI SE REFROIDIT, BAISSANT UN PEU L'ANALYSE DVORAK.
PAR INERTIE, ON PEUT ENCORE ESTIMER DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 110KT
MAIS IL EST FORT PROBABLE DE HABANA VA FAIBLIR PROCHAINEMENT. IL
N'APPARAIT PAS POUR LE MOMENT DE SIGNE DE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU
MUR DE L'OEIL, MAIS LA LEGERE AUGMENTATION DE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT
ANALYSE PAR LE CIMSS POURRAIT EXPLIQUER CETTE LEGERE TENDANCE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE HABANA.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE
FAITE PAR LE CMRS : HABANA POURSUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DE L'EST-SUD-EST S'ORIENTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST
AU COURS DU WEEK-END, PILOTEE PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE. EN
FIN DE JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AVANT DE
GRADUELLEMENT TOURNER VERS L'OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE QUI REGONFLE AU SUD-EST DU METEORE. IL EXISTE TOUJOURS
UNE FORTE DISPERSION DES MODELES DISPONIBLES SUR LE TIMING ET
LOCALISATION EXACTS DU DEMI-TOUR VERS L'OUEST.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT NON PLUS SUR LE SCENARIO CHOISI PAR LE CMRS, EN
TERME DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE. HABANA CONTINUE DE RENCONTRER
D'EXCELLENTES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES, PROPICE AU MAINTIEN DE SA
FORTE INTENSITE (UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, PEU DE CISAILLEMENT ET
UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE). L'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
SEMBLE S'ENROULER AUTOUR DU SYSTEME PAR LE SECTEUR OUEST ET NORD,
MAIS LES MODELES NE FAISANT PAS PENETRER CET AIR SEC DANS LE COEUR
PAR ABSENCE DE CISAILLEMENT, HABANA DEVRAIT CONSERVER UNE FORTE
INTENSITE. TOUTEFOIS A COURTE ECHEANCE, UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE
SECTEUR NORD SE MET EN PLACE ET VIENT AFFAIBLIR LEGEREMENT LE
SYSTEME, SA PETITE TAILLE LE RENDANT PLUS VULNERABLE AUX FORCAGES
EXTERIEURS. DES LUNDI, LES CONDITIONS REDEVIENNENT PLEINEMENT
FAVORABLES, AVEC MEME UN REGAIN DE LA DIVERGENCE A PARTIR DE MARDI.
LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST RENDUE INCERTAINE PAR LA PETITE TAILLE
DU SYSTEME ET PAR LA SURVENUE PROBABLE D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU
MUR DE L'OEIL, EXPLIQUANT LES VARIATIONS DANS LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 061216
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 78.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/07 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 45

24H: 2021/03/07 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

36H: 2021/03/08 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

48H: 2021/03/08 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 45

60H: 2021/03/09 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

72H: 2021/03/09 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/10 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

120H: 2021/03/11 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE HABANA'S EYE PATTERN HAS BEEN MAINTAINED
BUT PRESENTS A LITTLE MORE FLUCTUATIONS WITH NOTABLY AN EYE THAT
COOLS DOWN, LOWERING A LITTLE THE DVORAK ANALYSIS. BY INERTIA, WE CAN
STILL ESTIMATE WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 110KT BUT IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT
HABANA WILL WEAKEN SOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR FOR THE MOMENT ANY SIGN
OF REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYE WALL, BUT THE SLIGHT INCREASE OF WIND
SHEAR ANALYZED BY CIMSS COULD EXPLAIN THIS SLIGHT TENDENCY TO WEAKEN
HABANA.

NO CHANGE IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK FORECAST MADE BY THE RSMC:
HABANA IS FOLLOWING A TRACK IN A GENERAL EAST-SOUTH DIRECTION,
GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTH-EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND, DRIVEN BY THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AT THE END OF SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BEFORE GRADUALLY
TURNING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH
IS RE-INFLATING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE METEOR. THERE IS STILL A
STRONG DISPERSION OF AVAILABLE MODELS ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE TURN WESTWARD.

NO CHANGE EITHER ON THE SCENARIO CHOSEN BY THE RSMC, IN TERMS OF
INTENSITY FORECAST. HABANA CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER EXCELLENT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, CONDUCIVE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF ITS HIGH
INTENSITY (HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LITTLE SHEAR AND STRONG ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE). DRY MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR SEEMS TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM
FROM THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTORS, BUT SINCE THE MODELS DO NOT
PENETRATE THIS DRY AIR INTO THE CORE DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF SHEAR,
HABANA SHOULD MAINTAIN A HIGH INTENSITY. HOWEVER, IN THE SHORT TERM,
A MODERATE SHEAR IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR WILL COME INTO PLACE AND
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY, ITS SMALL SIZE MAKING IT MORE VULNERABLE
TO EXTERNAL FORCES. FROM MONDAY, CONDITIONS BECOME FULLY FAVORABLE
AGAIN, WITH EVEN A RENEWED DIVERGENCE STARTING ON TUESDAY. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS MADE UNCERTAIN BY THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM
AND BY THE PROBABLE OCCURRENCE OF A REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYE
WALL, WHICH EXPLAINS THE VARIATIONS IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 061210 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/03/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 06/03/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 78.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
180NM IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/07 AT 00 UTC:
16.6 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/07 AT 12 UTC:
17.1 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 061204
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/03/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 06/03/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 78.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
180NM IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/07 AT 00 UTC:
16.6 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT,
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/07 AT 12 UTC:
17.1 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT,
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 060634
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 06/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.1 S / 78.0 E
(SEIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.5/6.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 938 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 06/03/2021 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 175 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

24H: 07/03/2021 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

36H: 07/03/2021 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 08/03/2021 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 08/03/2021 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 09/03/2021 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/03/2021 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

120H: 11/03/2021 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL D'HABANA
N'A GUERE EVOLUEE LAISSANT UNE ANALYSE DVORAK DE 6.5-, AVEC UNE
ESTIMATION DE VENTS MAXIMAUX DE L'ORDRE DE 110KT. LES DERNIERES
DONNEES ASCAT ET MICRO-ONDE PERMETTENT DE VALIDER LA PETITE TAILLE DU
SYSTEME. ON NOTERA LA MISE EN PLACE D'UNE BANDE CONVECTIVE DANS LE
SECTEUR EST DU SYSTEME QUI POURRAIT FAVORISER AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
12/24HEURES UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL.

LE CONTEXTE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE RESTE LE MEME : HABANA VA POURSUIVRE
UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'EST PUIS SUD-EST CE
WEEK-END, PILOTEE PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE. EN FIN DE
JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AVANT DE
GRADUELLEMENT TOURNER VERS L'OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE QUI REGONFLE AU SUD-EST DU METEORE. ON NOTERA UNE FORTE
DISPERSION DES MODELES DISPONIBLES SUR LE TIMING ET LOCALISATION
EXACTS DU DEMI-TOUR VERS L'OUEST.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT NON PLUS SUR LE SCENARIO CHOISI PAR LE CMRS, EN
TERME DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE. HABANA CONTINUE DE RENCONTRER
D'EXCELLENTES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES, PROPICE AU MAINTIEN DE SA
FORTE INTENSITE VOIRE ENCORE A UN RENFORCEMENT AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES HEURES (UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, PEU DE CISAILLEMENT
ET UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE). DE L'AIR SEC SEMBLE PRESENT DANS
LE SECTEUR OUEST ET NORD, MAIS LES MODELES NE FAISANT PAS PENETRER
CET AIR SEC DANS LE COEUR PAR ABSENCE DE CISAILLEMENT, HABANA DEVRAIT
CONSERVER UNE FORTE INTENSITE. CE WEEK-END, UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE
SECTEUR NORD DEVRAIT SE METTRE EN PLACE ET POURRAIT VENIR STOPPER
L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME VOIRE MEME L'AFFAIBLIR LEGEREMENT VU SA
PETITE TAILLE QUI LE REND PLUS VULNERABLE AUX FORCAGES EXTERIEURS.
DES LUNDI, LES CONDITIONS REDEVIENNENT PLEINEMENT FAVORABLES, AVEC
MEME UN REGAIN DE LA DIVERGENCE A PARTIR DE MARDI. LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE EST RENDUE INCERTAINE PAR LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME ET
PAR LA SURVENUE PROBABLE D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL,
EXPLIQUANT LES VARIATIONS DANS LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 060634
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 78.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 938 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/06 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2021/03/07 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

36H: 2021/03/07 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2021/03/08 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2021/03/08 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2021/03/09 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/10 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

120H: 2021/03/11 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE HABANA'S EYE PATTERN HAS EVOLVED LITTLE,
LEAVING A DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 6.5-, WITH A MAXIMUM WIND ESTIMATE OF
AROUND 110KT. THE LAST ASCAT SWATH AND MICROWAVE DATA ALLOW TO
VALIDATE THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. WE NOTE THE IMPLEMENTATION OF
A CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE EASTERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD
FAVOR A REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYE WALL DURING THE NEXT 12/24
HOURS.

THE CONTEXT OF THE TRACK REMAINS THE SAME: HABANA WILL FOLLOW A TRACK
IN A GENERAL EAST THEN SOUTH-EAST DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND, DRIVEN BY
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AT THE END OF SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
SLOW DOWN WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BEFORE
GRADUALLY TURNING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WHICH IS RE-INFLATING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE METEOR. A STRONG
DISPERSION OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS ON THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION
OF THE WESTERLY TURN WILL BE NOTED.

NO CHANGE EITHER ON THE SCENARIO CHOSEN BY THE RSMC, IN TERMS OF
INTENSITY FORECAST. HABANA CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER EXCELLENT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, CONDUCIVE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF ITS HIGH
INTENSITY AND EVEN TO A STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS (STRONG
OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LITTLE SHEAR AND A STRONG DIVERGENCE IN ALTITUDE).
DRY AIR SEEMS TO BE PRESENT IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTOR, BUT
SINCE THE MODELS DO NOT PENETRATE THIS DRY AIR INTO THE CORE DUE TO
THE ABSENCE OF SHEAR, HABANA SHOULD MAINTAIN A HIGH INTENSITY. THIS
WEEKEND, A MODERATE SHEAR IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
AND COULD STOP THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM OR EVEN WEAKEN IT
SLIGHTLY DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE WHICH MAKES IT MORE VULNERABLE TO
EXTERNAL FORCES. FROM MONDAY, CONDITIONS BECOME FULLY FAVORABLE
AGAIN, WITH EVEN A RENEWAL OF THE DIVERGENCE FROM TUESDAY. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS MADE UNCERTAIN BY THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM
AND BY THE PROBABLE OCCURRENCE OF A EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE,
EXPLAINING THE VARIATIONS IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 060602
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/03/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 06/03/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 938 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 78.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/06 AT 18 UTC:
16.4 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/07 AT 06 UTC:
16.8 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 060034
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 06/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.0 S / 77.5 E
(SEIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 938 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 70 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 06/03/2021 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 07/03/2021 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 07/03/2021 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 08/03/2021 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 45

60H: 08/03/2021 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 165 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 09/03/2021 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/03/2021 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

120H: 11/03/2021 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 50 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=6.0+;CI=6.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL D'HABANA
S'EST LEGEREMENT DEGRADEE AVANT DE REDEVENIR PLUS AFFIRMEE AVEC LE
RETOUR DE SOMMETS TRES FROIDS AUTOUR D'UN OEIL TOUJOURS BIEN DEFINI.
EN COHERENCE AVEC LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES
DISPONIBLES, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME A ETE MAINTENUE A 110KT. LES
IMAGES 91GHZ DES PASSES AMSR2 DE 2029Z ET SSMIS DE 2246Z REVELENT UN
COEUR INTERNE TRES SOLIDE QUI S'EST MEME CONTRACTE ET RENFORCE PAR
RAPPORT AUX IMAGES PRECEDENTES. ON NOTE TOUJOURS UNE BANDE EXTERNE
QUI A TENDANCE A S'ENROULER AUTOUR DU COEUR DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
SUD-OUEST, CE QUI A FAIT AUGMENTER LA PROBABILITE DE SURVENUE D'UN
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL SUR LE PRODUIT M-PERC DU CIMSS.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, HABANA VA POURSUIVRE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'EST PUIS SUD-EST CE WEEK-END,
PILOTEE PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA
DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AVANT DE GRADUELLEMENT TOURNER VERS
L'OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QUI REGONFLE AU
SUD-EST DU METEORE. LA FORTE DISPERSION DES ENSEMBLES ET DES MODELES
DISPONIBLES ILLUSTRENT UNE INCERTITUDE RELATIVEMENT ELEVEE SUR LE
TIMING ET LOCALISATION EXACTS DU DEMI-TOUR VERS L'OUEST.

HABANA CONTINUE DE RENCONTRER D'EXCELLENTES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES, PROPICE AU MAINTIEN DE SA FORTE INTENSITE VOIRE
ENCORE A UN RENFORCEMENT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES, AVEC UN FORT
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, PEU DE CISAILLEMENT ET UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE. CE WEEK-END, UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE SECTEUR NORD
DEVRAIT SE METTRE EN PLACE ET POURRAIT VENIR STOPPER
L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME VOIRE MEME L'AFFAIBLIR LEGEREMENT VU SA
PETITE TAILLE QUI LE REND PLUS VULNERABLE AUX FORCAGES EXTERIEURS.
DES LUNDI, LES CONDITIONS REDEVIENNENT PLEINEMENT FAVORABLES, AVEC
MEME UN REGAIN DE LA DIVERGENCE A PARTIR DE MARDI. LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE EST RENDUE INCERTAINE PAR LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME ET
PAR LA SURVENUE PROBABLE D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 060034
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 77.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 938 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 70 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/06 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2021/03/07 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2021/03/07 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2021/03/08 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

60H: 2021/03/08 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2021/03/09 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/10 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

120H: 2021/03/11 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0+;CI=6.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, HABANA'S EYE CONFIGURATION TEMPORARILY DEGRADED
BEFORE IMPROVING AGAIN WITH THE RETURN OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND
A STILL WELL-DEFINED EYE. IN COHERENCE WITH THE OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATE AVAILABLE, THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY HAS
BEEN MAINTAINED AT 110KT. THE 91GHZ IMAGES FROM THE 2029Z AMSR2 AND
2246Z SSMIS SWATH REVEAL A VERY ROBUST INNER CORE, THAT TIGHTENED AND
STRENGTHENED COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS MW IMAGES. AN EXTERNAL BAND IS
STILL THERE AND WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTH-WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WHICH
DROVE AN INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
OCCURRENCE ON THE CIMSS'S M-PERC PRODUCT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, HABANA WILL KEEP ON HEADING EASTWARDS
THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE WEEK-END, DRIVEN BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AS THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GROWING IN THE SOUTH-EAST. THE
STRONG DISPERSION AMONGST THE AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATE A RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF THE WESTWARD U-TURN.

HABANA STILL ENCOUNTERS CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR IT TO MAINTAIN OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY INCREASE ITS INTENSITY : STRONG OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL,
LOW SHEAR AND A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. THIS WEEK-END, A MODERATE
NORTHERLY SHEAR COULD STOP THE INTENSIFICATION AND EVEN SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN THE CYCLONE GIVEN ITS SMALL SIZE THAT MAKES IT MORE SENSIBLE
TO EXTERNAL FORCINGS. FROM MONDAY HOWEVER, CONDITIONS BECOME TOTALLY
FAVORABLE AGAIN, WITH EVEN AN INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE TUESDAY.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO HABANA'S SMALL SIZE AND TO
THE LIKELY OCCURENCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 060013
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/03/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 06/03/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 938 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 77.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 110 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/06 AT 12 UTC:
16.2 S / 78.4 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/07 AT 00 UTC:
16.5 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051820
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 05/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.1 S / 77.0 E
(SEIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.5/6.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 80 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 06/03/2021 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 06/03/2021 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 07/03/2021 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 07/03/2021 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 08/03/2021 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 08/03/2021 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/03/2021 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 175 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

120H: 10/03/2021 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 195 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE EN OEIL D'HABANA S'EST
ENCORE RENFORCEE AVEC SOMMETS NUAGEUX DE PLUS EN PLUS FROIDS ET UN
OEIL TRES CLAIR ET CIRCULAIRE QUI SE CONTRACTE. L'INTENSITE DU
SYSTEME A DONC ETE RELEVEE A 110KT EN COHERENCE AVEC L'ESTIMATION
DVORAK. LES IMAGES 91GHZ DES PASSES SSMIS DE 1134Z ET 1358Z MONTRENT
UN COEUR INTERNE TRES SOLIDE, MAIS EGALEMENT UNE BANDE EXTERNE QUI SE
RAPPROCHE DU COEUR DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. A CE STADE, LA
SURVENUE D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL EST PROBABLE AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES ET CETTE STRUCTURE POURRAIT REPRESENTER
LES PREMICES DE CE PROCESSUS.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, HABANA VA POURSUIVRE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'EST PUIS SUD-EST PILOTEE PAR
LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE AVANT DE GRADUELLEMENT TOURNER VERS L'OUEST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QUI REGONFLE AU SUD-EST DU
METEORE. LA FORTE DISPERSION DES ENSEMBLES ET DES MODELES DISPONIBLES
ILLUSTRENT UNE INCERTITUDE RELATIVEMENT ELEVEE SUR LE TIMING ET
LOCALISATION EXACTS DU DEMI-TOUR VERS L'OUEST.

HABANA CONTINUE DE RENCONTRER D'EXCELLENTES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES, PROPICE AU MAINTIEN DE SA FORTE INTENSITE VOIRE
ENCORE A UN RENFORCEMENT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES, AVEC UN FORT
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, PEU DE CISAILLEMENT ET UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE. CE WEEK-END, UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE SECTEUR NORD
DEVRAIT SE METTRE EN PLACE ET POURRAIT VENIR STOPPER
L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME VOIRE MEME L'AFFAIBLIR LEGEREMENT VU SA
PETITE TAILLE QUI LE REND PLUS VULNERABLE. DES LUNDI, LES CONDITIONS
REDEVIENNENT PLEINEMENT FAVORABLES, AVEC MEME UN REGAIN DE LA
DIVERGENCE A PARTIR DE MARDI. LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST RENDUE
INCERTAINE PAR LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME ET PAR LA SURVENUE
PROBABLE D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL AU COURS DES
PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051820
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 77.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/06 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2021/03/06 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2021/03/07 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2021/03/07 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2021/03/08 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2021/03/08 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/09 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

120H: 2021/03/10 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, HABANA'S EYE PATTERN HA STRENGTHENED WITH VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING A VERY CIRCULAR AND CLEAR EYE. THE
SYSTEM'S INTENSITY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO 110KT IN COHERENCE WITH THE
DVORAK ESTIMATION. THE 1134Z AND 1358Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGES SHOWED A
VERY SOLD INNER CORE STRUCTURE, BUT ALSO AN EXTERNAL BAND COMING
CLOSER TO THE INNER CORE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. AT THIS STAGE,
THE OCCURRENCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OVER THE NEXT HOURS IS
LIKELY AND THIS PATTERN MIGHT REPRESENT THE FIRST STAGE OF THIS
PROCESS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, HABANA WILL KEEP ON HEADING EASTWARDS
THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS DRIVEN BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AS THE NAER EQUATORIAL RIDGE
WEAKENS AND GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GROWING IN THE SOUTH-EAST. THE STRONG DISPERSION
AMONGST THE AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATE
A RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE
WESTWARD U-TURN.

HABANA STILL ENCOUNTERS CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR IT TO MAINTAIN OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY INCREASE ITS INTENSITY : STRONG OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL,
LOW SHEAR AND A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. THIS WEEK-END, A MODERATE
NORTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD APPEAR AND COULD STOP THE INTENSIFICATION AND
EVEN SLIGHTLY WEAKEN IT GIVEN ITS SMALL SIZE MAKING IT MORE SENSIBLE
TO EXTERNAL FORCINGS. FROM MONDAY HOWEVER, CONDITIONS BECOME TOTALLY
FAVORABLE AGAIN WITH EVEN AN INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE TUESDAY.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO HABANA'S SMALL SIZE AND BY
THE LIKELY OCCURENCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OVER THE NEXT
DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 051809
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/03/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 05/03/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 77.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/06 AT 06 UTC:
16.2 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND = 115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/06 AT 18 UTC:
16.5 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051241
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 05/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.3 S / 76.4 E
(SEIZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 1.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 967 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 06/03/2021 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

24H: 06/03/2021 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 07/03/2021 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 35

48H: 07/03/2021 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 08/03/2021 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

72H: 08/03/2021 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/03/2021 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

120H: 10/03/2021 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 70 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, HABANA A POURSUIVI SON
NTENSIFICATION.
LA CONVECTION S'EST DEVELOPPEE ET ENTOURE MAINTENANT UN OEIL BIEN
FORME.
L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE GPM DE 0627Z MONTRE UNE SOLIDE CONSOLIDATION DE LA
STRUCTURE INTERNE DU SYSTEME. LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK MOYENNEES SUR 3H
DONNENT UN DT DE 6.0, CORROBORE PAR LES DONNEES OBJECTIVES
DISPONIBLES. EN CONSEQUENCE L'INTENSITE D'HABANA EST REMONTEE A
100KT.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, HABANA VA POURSUIVRE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE GENERALE EN DIRECTION DE L'EST, PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
PROCHE EQUATORIALE. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
RALENTIR AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE
AVANT DE GRADUELLEMENT TOURNER VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QUI SE RENFORCE. IL PERSISTE
ENCORE UNE GRANDE INCERTITUDE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DE CE
SYSTEME SUR LA PERIODE (BEAUCOUP D'ECART LE LONG DE LA TRAJECTOIRE
PARMI LES GUIDANCES).

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, HABANA CONTINUE DE RENCONTRER D'EXCELLENTES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES, PROPICE A SON INTENSIFICATION, AVEC UN
FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, ASSEZ PEU DE CISAILLEMENT EN ALTITUDE, ET
UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES NUMERIQUES
SEMBLENT GROUPEES POUR POURSUIVRE L'INTENSIFICATION D'HABANA A COURT
TERME. LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE A L'AVANT DU THALWEG VA BENEFICIER AU
SYSTEME, ET LE CISAILLEMENT NE DEVRAIT PAS REUSSIR A INTEGRER LE
COEUR D'HABANA. LES MODELES DETERMINISTES ET ENSEMBLISTES SUGGERENT
DESORMAIS UN SYSTEME TROPICAL ASSEZ ROBUSTE BENEFICIANT DE BONNES
CONDITIONS GENERALES, PROFITANT D'UNE BONNE ALIMENTATION EN BASSES ET
MOYENNE TROSPHERE, ET D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE. LE CHANGEMENT DE
SCENARIO DES MODELES PAR RAPPORT A CE MATIN, DENOTE D'UNE CERTAINE
INCERTITUDE QUANT A LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 76.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 967 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/06 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2021/03/06 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2021/03/07 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 35

48H: 2021/03/07 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2021/03/08 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

72H: 2021/03/08 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/09 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

120H: 2021/03/10 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0

IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, HABANA HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ITS
ITENSIFICATION. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND NOW SURROUNDS A WELL
SHAPED EYE. THE 0627Z GPM MICROWAVE SHOWS A SOLID CONSOLIDATION OF
THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVERAGED DVORAK ANALYSIS
ESTIMATES GIVE A DT OF 6.0, CONFIRMED BY THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE
DATA. AS A CONSEQUENCE, THE INTENSITY HAS RISEN TO 100KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, HABANA WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL TRACK
TOWARDS THE EAST, DRIVEN BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE IS STILL A
GREAT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
PERIOD (A LOT OF DEVIATION ALONG THE TRACK ALONG THE GUIDANCES).

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HABANA CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, CONDUCIVE TO ITS INTENSIFICATION, WITH A
STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, RELATIVELY LITTLE SHEAR AT ALTITUDE, AND A
STRONG DIVERGENCE IN ALTITUDE. THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCES SEEM TO
BE GROUPED TOGETHER TO CONTINUE THE INTENSIFICATION OF HABANA IN THE
SHORT TERM. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN FRONT OF A TROUGH WILL
BENEFIT TO THE SYSTEM, AND THE UPPER SHEAR SHOULD NOT SUCCEED TO
ENTER THE CORE OF HABANA. THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS NOW
SUGGEST A FAIRLY STRONG TROPICAL SYSTEM WITH GOOD GENERAL CONDITIONS,
GOOD HUMIDITY IN LOW LAYERS AND IN ALTITUDE AND GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE. THE CHANGE IN MODEL SCENARIO COMPARED TO THIS MORNING,
INDICATES AN UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 051220
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/03/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 05/03/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 967 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 76.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 70 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
250 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/06 AT 00 UTC:
16.1 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/06 AT 12 UTC:
16.0 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 16.4S 75.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 75.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.0S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.9S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.0S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.3S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.3S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.9S 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.0S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 75.9E.
05MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 24S HAS UNDERGONE A CYCLE OF
EXTREMELY RAPID INTENSIFICATION (ERI) OVER THE PREVIOUS SIX HOURS. A
SMALL 10NM WIDE EYE FEATURE DEVELOPED JUST PRIOR TO 0600Z WITH DEEP
CONVECTION COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE VERY SMALL AND INTENSE CORE. A
050630Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMED THE VERY WELL DEFINED
EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. THE 37GHZ IMAGE CONFIRMED THE
PRESENCE OF THE STRONG CYAN RING SIGNATURE, INDICATIVE OF THE RECENT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS, HEDGED LOWER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KTS). ADT REMAINS LOW AT T4.0 DUE TO
CONSTRAINTS, WHILE THE SATCON WAS ALSO UNREALISTICALLY LOW; HOWEVER
THE SSMIS CONSTITUENT OF SATCON WAS A MORE REALISTIC 96 KTS. DUE TO
THE ERI, THE ENVIRONMENT IS OBVIOUSLY VERY FAVORABLE WITH VERY LOW
(5-7 KTS) VWS, STRONG POLEWARD AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM (29-30C) SSTS. TC 24P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) ENTRENCHED TO THE
NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST
THROUGH TAU 24 BUT TURN EAST AS THE NER FLATTENS OUT BY TAU 24.
THROUGH TAU 72 A STR BUILDS EQUATORWARD TO THE EAST, FORCING A TURN
TO THE SOUTH. THEREAFTER A STRONG STR WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH AND
TURN TC 24P ONTO A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
DUE TO THE UNEXPECTED ERI, THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE IS
STILL BEING TRIPPED AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CYAN RING IN THE 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY IS INDICATIVE OF POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH A PEAK OF 100 KTS BY TAU
12 BEFORE STARTING A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST, PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO A DECREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT BUT OVERALL AGREES ON THE OVERALL
SCENARIO. SPREAD INCREASES TO 150NM AT TAU 48, INCREASING TO 220NM
AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S
(MARIAN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 050651
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/13/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 05/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.3 S / 75.6 E
(SEIZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/03/2021 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

24H: 06/03/2021 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

36H: 06/03/2021 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE

48H: 07/03/2021 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

60H: 07/03/2021 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

72H: 08/03/2021 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/03/2021 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE

120H: 10/03/2021 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

DEPUIS CES DERNIERES 6 HEURES LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST
NETTEMENT AMA LIOREE, AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI SE SONT REFROIDIS
ET QUI S'ENROULENT DESORMAIS AUTOUR D'UN OEIL, BIEN VISIBLE EN
IMAGERIE SATELLITAIRE CLASSIQUE. L'IMAGE SSMIS DE 0123Z MONTRE
EGALEMENT UNE STRUCTURE INTERNE SOLIDE, AVEC UN OEIL BIEN DEFINI. AU
VU DE CETTE ANALYSE ET AUX DONNEES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES,
L'INTENSITE FINALE EST EN CONSEQUENCE MONTEE A 65 KT, AU STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE:
AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, HABANA VA CONTINUER SON DEPLACEMENT EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'EST PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE.
EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AVANT DE
GRADUELLEMENT TOURNER VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QUI SE RENFORCE. IL EST NOTER QU'IL Y A UNE
INCERTITUDE ASSEZ FORTE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DE CE SYSTEME
SUR QUASIMENT TOUTE LA PERIODE (BEAUCOUP D'ECART LE LONG DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE PARMI LES GUIDANCES).

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, BIEN QUE BONNES ACTUELLEMENT, LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES VONT COMMENCER A SE DEGRADER DANS LES PROCHAINES
24H AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
OUEST-NORD-OUEST D'ABORD EN MOYENNE TROPO PUIS EN ALTITUDE, A L'AVANT
D'UN PROFOND THALWEG D'ALTITUDE. LES MODELES SUGGERENT UNE INJECTION
D'AIR SEC AU COEUR DU SYSTEME D'ICI DEMAIN, CE QUI DEVRAIT NETTEMENT
L'AFFAIBLIR. DU FAIT DE SON DEPLACEMENT DANS LE SENS DE LA CONTRAINTE
CISAILLEE, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT RESISTER PLUS OU MOINS LONGTEMPS EN
BENEFICIANT DE LA DIVERGENCE COTE SUD-EST, CE QUI INTRODUIT UNE
CERTAINE INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE. EN DEBUT DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT FAIBLIR ET LES MODELES
DISPONIBLES SUGGERENT UN REEL POTENTIEL DE REINTENSIFICATION.
TOUTEFOIS CES RE-INTENSIFICATION A LONGUE ECHEANCE ONT
ESSENTIELLEMENT ETE DES FAUSSES ALERTES DEPUIS LE DEBUT DE LA SAISON
ET UNE CONFIANCE FAIBLE EST DONNE A CE SCENARIO, D'AUTANT QUE LA
CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES S'AFFAIBLIT COTE EQUATEUR ET QUE
L'ENVIRONNEMENT DU SYSTEME EST PREVU ASSEZ SEC ET CISAILLE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 050651
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/13/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 75.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/05 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

24H: 2021/03/06 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2021/03/06 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

48H: 2021/03/07 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2021/03/07 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2021/03/08 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/09 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

120H: 2021/03/10 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

SINCE THE LAST 6 HOURS THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY,
WITH CLOUD TOPS THAT HAVE COOLED AND NOW WRAP AROUND AN EYE, CLEARLY
VISIBLE IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 0123Z SSMIS MACROWAVE
ALSO SHOWS A SOLID INTERNAL STRUCTURE, WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE.
ACCORDING TO THIS ANALYSIS AND ON OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DATA, THE
FINAL INTENSITY IS CONSEQUENTLY RAISED TO 65 KT, AT THE STAGE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF TRACK PREDICTION:
OVER THE NEXT DAYS, HABANA SHOULD TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARDS DRIVEN BY
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LOW SHOULD SLOW DOWN
IN RELATION WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, BEFORE
TURNING GRADUALLY WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT IS NOTED THAT THERE IS A RATHER STRONG
UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER ALMOST THE
WHOLE PERIOD (A LOT OF DISCREPANCIES ALONG THE TRACK AMONG THE
GUIDANCES).

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD START SOON TO DETERIORATE FIRST IN
THE MID-LEVELS THEN IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF A
WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH. AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN INJECTION OF DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM'S INNER CORE
SATURDAY, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A WEAKENING. AS THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE SHEAR CONSTRAINT, IT COULD RESIST A
LITTLE BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED WHILE BENEFITING FROM A GOOD
SOUTHEASTWARD DIVERGENCE, WHICH INTRODUCES A SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER SHEAR SHOULD ABATE
AND THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A REAL POTENTIAL FOR
REINTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THESE LONG TERM RE-INTENSIFICATIONS HAVE
ESSENTIALLY BEEN FALSE ALARMS SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE SEASON AND
LOW CONFIDENCE IS GIVEN TO THIS SCENARIO, ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW
LEVELS CONVERGENCE WEAKENS ON THE EQUATOR SIDE AND ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE DRY AND SHEARDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 050623
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/03/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 05/03/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 75.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
300 NM IN THE EASTERN AND THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/05 AT 18 UTC:
16.2 S / 76.7 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2021/03/06 AT 06 UTC:
15.9 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 050059
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/13/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 05/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.6 S / 74.5 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 185 SO: 95 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SO: 40 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/03/2021 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 100 SO: 140 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 75

24H: 06/03/2021 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

36H: 06/03/2021 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 75 SO: 100 NO: 110

48H: 07/03/2021 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

60H: 07/03/2021 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

72H: 08/03/2021 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/03/2021 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 110

120H: 10/03/2021 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DE LA NUIT LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A EU TENDANCE A
S'AMELIORER AVEC DES SOMMETS FROIDS EN EXPANSION. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES
SSMI/S DE 23Z MONTRE QU'UN OEIL S'EST CONSITITUE EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE ET QU'IL EST BIEN ALIGNE VERTICALEMENT AVEC LE CENTRE DE
BASSES COUCHES. L'INTENSITE FINALE EST EN CONSEQUENCE MONTE A 50 KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE:
AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, HABANA VA CONTINUER SON DEPLACEMENT EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'EST PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE.
IL POURRAIT MEME TEMPORAIREMENT SE DEPLACER VERS L'EST-NORD-EST
SAMEDI, ALORS QUE LA DORSALE SE DECALE VERS L'OUEST CE QUI MODIFIE LE
FLUX DIRECTEUR. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
RALENTIR AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE
AVANT DE GRADUELLEMENT TOURNER VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QUI SE RENFORCE. IL EST NOTER
QU'IL Y A UNE INCERTITUDE ASSEZ FORTE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT
DE CE SYSTEME SUR QUASIMENT TOUTE LA PERIODE (BEAUCOUP D'ECART LE
LONG DE LA TRAJECTOIRE PARMI LES GUIDANCES).

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES COMMENCENT A
SE DEGRADER AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
OUEST-NORD-OUEST D'ABORD EN MOYENNE TROPO PUIS EN ALTITUDE, A L'AVANT
D'UN PROFOND THALWEG D'ALTITUDE. LES MODELES SUGGERENT UNE INJECTION
D'AIR SEC AU COEUR DU SYSTEME D'ICI DEMAIN, CE QUI DEVRAIT NETTEMENT
L'AFFAIBLIR. DU FAIT DE SON DEPLACEMENT DANS LE SENS DE LA CONTRAINTE
CISAILLEE, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT RESISTER PLUS OU MOINS LONGTEMPS EN
BENEFICIANT DE LA DIVERGENCE COTE SUD-EST, CE QUI INTRODUIT UNE
CERTAINE INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE.

EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT FAIBLIR ET LES
MODELES DISPONIBLES SUGGERENT UN REEL POTENTIEL DE REINTENSIFICATION.
TOUTEFOIS CES RE-INTENSIFICATION A LONGUE ECHEANCE ONT
ESSENTIELLEMENT ETE DES FAUSSES ALERTES DEPUIS LE DEBUT DE LA SAISON
ET UNE CONFIANCE FAIBLE EST DONNE A CE SCENARIO, D'AUTANT QUE LA
CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES S'AFFAIBLIT COTE EQUATEUR ET QUE
L'ENVIRONNEMENT DU SYSTEME EST PREVU ASSEZ SEC.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 050059
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/13/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/05 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 74.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 185 SW: 95 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SW: 40 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/05 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 75

24H: 2021/03/06 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/06 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 75 SW: 100 NW: 110

48H: 2021/03/07 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2021/03/07 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2021/03/08 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/09 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 110

120H: 2021/03/10 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

DURING THE NIGHT THE CLOUD PATTERN TENDED TO IMPROVE WITH EXPANDING
COLD TOPS. THE SSMI/S MICROWAVE IMAGE OF 23Z SHOWS THAT AN EYE HAS
BUILT IN MID-TROPOSPHERE AND THAT IT IS WELL ALIGNED VERTICALLY WITH
THE LOW LEVELS CENTER. THE FINAL INTENSITY IS CONSEQUENTLY INCREASED
TO 50 KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF TRACK PREDICTION:
OVER THE NEXT DAYS, HABANA SHOULD TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARDS DRIVEN BY
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. A TEMPORARY EAST-NORTH-EASTWARD TURN IS
SUGGESTED BY SOME GUIDANCES SATURDAY, AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARDS
THUS MODIFYING THE STEERING FLOW. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LOW SHOULD
SLOW DOWN IN RELATION WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE, BEFORE TURNING GRADUALLY WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD UNDER THE GROWING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT IS NOTED THAT THERE IS A
RATHER STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER ALMOST THE WHOLE PERIOD (A LOT OF DISCREPANCIES ALONG THE TRACK
AMONG THE GUIDANCES).

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD START SOON TO DETERIORATE FIRST IN
THE MID-LEVELS THEN IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF A
WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH. AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN INJECTION OF DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM'S INNER CORE
SATURDAY, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A WEAKENING. AS THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE SHEAR CONSTRAINT, IT COULD RESIST A
LITTLE BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED WHILE BENEFITING FROM A GOOD
SOUTHEASTWARD DIVERGENCE, WHICH INTRODUCES A SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER SHEAR SHOULD ABATE AND THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST A REAL POTENTIAL FOR REINTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THESE LONG
TERM RE-INTENSIFICATIONS HAVE ESSENTIALLY BEEN FALSE ALARMS SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE SEASON AND LOW CONFIDENCE IS GIVEN TO THIS SCENARIO,
ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVELS CONVERGENCE WEAKENS ON THE EQUATOR SIDE
AND ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE DRY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 050028
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/03/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 05/03/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (HABANA) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 74.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 20
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 30 NM
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/05 AT 12 UTC:
16.4 S / 76.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/06 AT 00 UTC:
16.0 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 16.7S 73.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 73.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.6S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.2S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.9S 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.9S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.7S 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 17.6S 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.1S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 73.9E.
04MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
578 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A QUICKLY IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
WRAPPING INTO A SMALL CORE REGION. A 041414Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTED A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM JTWC AND A
041644Z SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 48 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VWS, ROBUST
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SSTS WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). TC 24S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72, SOUTH OF THE NER
UNTIL THE NER WEAKENS AND TC 24S BEGINS TO LOOP TO THE SOUTHWEST AS
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF TC 24S. THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL REMAIN OVERALL FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 48 DESPITE A GRADUAL DIP
IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. AFTERWARDS, UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IMPROVES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, LEADING TO INTENSIFICATION
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST TO 75 KNOTS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH A SPREAD OUT TO 200NM AT TAU 96. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG CONSENSUS. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE LARGE
SPREAD IN AVAIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 041909
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/13/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 04/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.6 S / 73.7 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 185 SO: 95 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/03/2021 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 35

24H: 05/03/2021 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 55 NO: 65

36H: 06/03/2021 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

48H: 06/03/2021 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 07/03/2021 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

72H: 07/03/2021 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/03/2021 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 75

120H: 09/03/2021 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 55

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE LA FIN DE JOURNEE ONT MONTRE QU'UN COEUR
CENTRAL S'EST BRIEVEMENT CONSTITUE VERS 12Z AVANT DE MONTRER DES
SIGNES D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT VERS 15Z. UNE PASS SMAP VERS 13Z A MONTRE
DES VENTS MAX A 47 KT. L'INTENSITE EST MONTEE A 45 KT EN COMPROMIS
ENTRE LES DONNEES SMAP ET LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES A 40 KT.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, HABANA VA CONTINUER SON DEPLACEMENT EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'EST PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE.
IL POURRAIT MEME TEMPORAIREMENT SE DEPLACER VERS L'EST-NORD-EST
SAMEDI, ALORS QUE LA DORSALE SE DECALE VERS L'OUEST CE QUI MODIFIE LE
FLUX DIRECTEUR. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
RALENTIR AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE
AVANT DE TOURNER VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE QUI SE RENFORCE.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, HABANA DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE S'INTENSIFIER AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES EN BENEFICIANT DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES
AVEC UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST ET UNE TRES
BONNE ALIMENTATION DE SURFACE COTE EQUATORIAL. VENDREDI, LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES COMMENCENT A SE DEGRADER AVEC LE
RENFORCEMENT D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST-NORD-OUEST D'ABORD EN
MOYENNE TROPO PUIS EN ALTITUDE, A L'AVANT D'UN PROFOND THALWEG
D'ALTITUDE. LES MODELES SUGGERENT UNE INJECTION D'AIR SEC AU COEUR DU
SYSTEME EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI, CE QUI DEVRAIT NETTEMENT L'AFFAIBLIR.
DU FAIT DE SON DEPLACEMENT DANS LE SENS DE LA CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE,
LE SYSTEME POURRAIT RESISTER PLUS OU MOINS LONGTEMPS EN BENEFICIANT
DE LA DIVERGENCE COTE SUD-EST, CE QUI INTRODUIT UNE CERTAINE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE.

EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT FAIBLIR ET LES
MODELES DISPONIBLES SUGGERENT UN REEL POTENTIEL DE REINTENSIFICATION.
TOUTEFOIS CES RE-INTENSIFICATION A LONGUE ECHEANCE ONT ESSETIELLEMENT
ETE DES FAUSSES ALERTES DEPUIS LE DEBUT DE LA SAISON ET UNE CONFIANCE
FAIBLE EST DONNE A CE SCENARIO.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 041909
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/13/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/04 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 73.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 185 SW: 95 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/05 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 35

24H: 2021/03/05 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 55 NW: 65

36H: 2021/03/06 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

48H: 2021/03/06 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2021/03/07 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2021/03/07 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/08 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 75

120H: 2021/03/09 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 55

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

MICROWAVE IMAGES OF THE END OF THE DAY SHOWED THAT AN INNER-CORE
BRIEFLY CONSTITUTED ITSELF AROUND 12Z BEFORE SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING AROUND 15Z. A SMAP PASS AROUND 13Z SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS AT
47 KT. THE INTENSITY HAS RISEN TO 45 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
SMAP DATA AND THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AT 40 KT.

OVER THE NEXT DAYS, HABANA SHOULD TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DRIVEN BY
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. A TEMPORARY EAST-NORTH-EASTWARD TURN IS
SUGGESTED BY SOME GUIDANCES SATURDAY, AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARDS
THUS MODIFYING THE STEERING FLOW. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LOW SHOULD
SLOW DOWN IN RELATION WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE, BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-WESTWARD UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

HABANA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP INTENSIFYING IN THE NEXT HOURS WHILE
BENEFITING FROM CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS : EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND VERY GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE ON THE
EQUATORIAL SIDE. FRIDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE FIRST IN THE MID-LEVELS THEN IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WITH
THE STRENGTHENING OF A WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN INJECTION OF DRY AIR INTO
THE SYSTEM'S INNER CORE SATURDAY, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A WEAKENING.
AS THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE SHEAR
CONSTRAINT, IT COULD RESIST A LITTLE BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED WHILE
BENEFITING FROM A GOOD SOUTHEASTWARD DIVERGENCE, WHICH INTRODUCES A
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER SHEAR SHOULD ABATE AND THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST A REAL POTENTIAL FOR REINTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THESE LONG
TERM RE-INTENSIFICATIONS HAVE ESSENTIALLY BEEN FALSE ALARMS SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE SEASON AND LOW CONFIDENCE IS GIVEN TO THIS SCENARIO.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 041825
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/03/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 04/03/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (HABANA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 73.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 60 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/05 AT 06 UTC:
16.5 S / 75.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/05 AT 18 UTC:
16.0 S / 76.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 041500
WARNING ATCG MIL 24S SIO 210304141531
2021030412 24S HABANA 001 02 120 12 SATL 060
T000 164S 0725E 035 R034 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 166S 0746E 045 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 163S 0766E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD
T036 159S 0780E 055 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 157S 0790E 060 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 163S 0808E 055 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 174S 0823E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 184S 0824E 050 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 16.4S 72.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 72.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.6S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.3S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.9S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 15.7S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.3S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.4S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.4S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 73.0E.
04MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 558
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
2421030306 148S 651E 15
2421030312 152S 662E 25
2421030318 156S 678E 25
2421030400 158S 695E 30
2421030406 158S 714E 30
2421030412 164S 725E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 041230
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/13/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 04/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.4 S / 72.5 E
(SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/03/2021 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 75 SO: 100 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 35 SO: 55 NO: 85

24H: 05/03/2021 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 75 SO: 120 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

36H: 06/03/2021 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 75 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 35

48H: 06/03/2021 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 55 SO: 85 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 07/03/2021 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 100

72H: 07/03/2021 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/03/2021 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 75

120H: 09/03/2021 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 55

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST BIEN DEVELOPPEE
ET ORGANISEE PRES DU CENTRE DE CIRCULATION. SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES
SATELLITES, UN COEUR DE PETITE TAILLE SE CONSTITUE EN S'ISOLANT DU
RESTE DE LA CONVECTION. L'IMAGE 37GHZ DE LA PASSE AMSR2 DE 0854Z
ILLUSTRE CE PROCESSUS DE RENFORCEMENT DU COEUR INTERNE. CES ELEMENTS
ONT MOTIVE LE BAPTEME DU SYSTEME, QUI A ETE NOMME HABANA PAR LE
SERVICE METEO DE MAURICE A 11Z.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, HABANA VA CONTINUER SON DEPLACEMENT EN
DIRECTION DE L'EST-SUD-EST PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE.
IL POURRAIT MEME TEMPORAIREMENT SE DEPLACER VERS L'EST-NORD-EST
SAMEDI, ALORS QUE LA DORSALE SE DECALE VERS L'OUEST CE QUI MODIFIE LE
FLUX DIRECTEUR. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
RALENTIR AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE
AVANT DE TOURNER VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE QUI SE RENFORCE.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, HABANA DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE S'INTENSIFIER AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES EN BENEFICIANT DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES
AVEC UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST ET UNE TRES
BONNE ALIMENTATION DE SURFACE COTE EQUATORIAL. VENDREDI, LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES COMMENCENT A SE DEGRADER AVEC LE
RENFORCEMENT D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST-NORD-OUEST D'ABORD EN
MOYENNE TROPO PUIS EN ALTITUDE, A L'AVANT D'UN PROFOND THALWEG
D'ALTITUDE. LES MODELES SUGGERENT UNE INJECTION D'AIR SEC AU COEUR DU
SYSTEME EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI, CE QUI DEVRAIT NETTEMENT L'AFFAIBLIR.
DU FAIT DE SON DEPLACEMENT DANS LE SENS DE LA CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE,
LE SYSTEME POURRAIT RESISTER PLUS OU MOINS LONGTEMPS EN BENEFICIANT
DE LA DIVERGENCE COTE SUD-EST, CE QUI INTRODUIT UNE CERTAINE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE.

EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT FAIBLIR ET LES
MODELES DISPONIBLES SUGGERENT UN REEL POTENTIEL DE REINTENSIFICATION.=

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Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 041230
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/13/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/04 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 72.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/05 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 75 SW: 100 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 35 SW: 55 NW: 85

24H: 2021/03/05 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 75 SW: 120 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

36H: 2021/03/06 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 35

48H: 2021/03/06 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 55 SW: 85 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2021/03/07 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 100

72H: 2021/03/07 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/08 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 75

120H: 2021/03/09 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 55

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION DEVELOPED SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND AND
CLOSE TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ON THE LAST SAT IMAGES, A SMALL CORE
SEEMS TO STRENGTHEN WHILE ISOLATING FROM THE REST OF THE CONVECTION.
THE 37GHZ AMSR2 0854Z IMAGE ILLUSTRATES THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
STORM'S INNER CORE. GIVEN THESE ELEMENTS, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED
HABANA BY MAURITIUS MET SERVICE AT 11Z.

OVER THE NEXT DAYS, HABANA SHOULD TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DRIVEN BY
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. A TEMPORARY EAST-NORTH-EASTWARD TURN IS
SUGGESTED BY SOME GUIDANCES SATURDAY, AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARDS
THUS MODIFYING THE STEERING FLOW. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LOW SHOULD
SLOW DOWN IN RELATION WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE, BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-WESTWARD UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

HABANA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP INTENSIFYING IN THE NEXT HOURS WHILE
BENEFITING FROM CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS : EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND VERY GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE ON THE
EQUATORIAL SIDE. FRIDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE FIRST IN THE MID-LEVELS THEN IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WITH
THE STRENGTHENING OF A WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN INJECTION OF DRY AIR INTO
THE SYSTEM'S INNER CORE SATURDAY, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A WEAKENING.
AS THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE SHEAR
CONSTRAINT, IT COULD RESIST A LITTLE BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED WHILE
BENEFITING FROM A GOOD SOUTHEASTWARD DIVERGENCE, WHICH INTRODUCES A
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER SHEAR SHOULD ABATE AND THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST A REAL POTENTIAL FOR REINTENSIFICATION.=

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Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 041208
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/03/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 04/03/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (HABANA) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 72.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/05 AT 00 UTC:
16.5 S / 74.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/05 AT 12 UTC:
16.3 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

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