Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for NIRAN-21
in New Caledonia, Australia, Norfolk Island, Vanuatu

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 070300
WARNING ATCG MIL 23P SWP 210307021159
2021030700 23P NIRAN 025 01 110 20 SATL 050
T000 273S 1757E 050 R050 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T012 295S 1778W 040 R034 140 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 27.3S 175.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S 175.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 29.5S 177.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 27.9S 177.3E.
07MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z
IS 27 FEET.//
2321022706 154S1489E 20
2321022712 159S1489E 20
2321022718 164S1488E 25
2321022800 166S1487E 25
2321022806 169S1485E 30
2321022812 171S1482E 30
2321022818 173S1477E 30
2321030100 172S1472E 35
2321030106 167S1468E 35
2321030112 161S1469E 40
2321030118 155S1473E 45
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030500 167S1546E 110
2321030500 167S1546E 110
2321030500 167S1546E 110
2321030506 178S1568E 120
2321030506 178S1568E 120
2321030506 178S1568E 120
2321030512 188S1591E 140
2321030512 188S1591E 140
2321030512 188S1591E 140
2321030518 199S1614E 120
2321030518 199S1614E 120
2321030518 199S1614E 120
2321030600 212S1637E 110
2321030600 212S1637E 110
2321030600 212S1637E 110
2321030606 227S1666E 100
2321030606 227S1666E 100
2321030606 227S1666E 100
2321030612 243S1695E 90
2321030612 243S1695E 90
2321030612 243S1695E 90
2321030618 267S1735E 65
2321030618 267S1735E 65
2321030618 267S1735E 65
2321030700 273S1757E 50
2321030700 273S1757E 50

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 27.3S 175.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S 175.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 29.5S 177.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 27.9S 177.3E.
07MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED. THE INITIAL POSITION
WAS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PGTW
ESTIMATE OF ST3.0/45KTS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE (ADT) WITH A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.4/53KTS AND
EXTRAPOLATED USING A PARTIAL PASS FROM A 062212Z METOP-B ASCAT
IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING
OFFSET BY VERY STRONG (30-40KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) 24-25C. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. THE HARSH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, ALONG WITH THE DECREASED SSTS,
HAS DECREASED THE SYSTEM INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AND IS EXPECTED TO
COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12 WITH ONLY A 70NM SPREAD.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST TRACK
AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER DUE TO THE INCREASING SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070000Z IS 27 FEET.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 062100
WARNING ATCG MIL 23P SWP 210306212135
2021030618 23P NIRAN 024 01 125 43 SATL 045
T000 267S 1735E 065 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 100 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 095 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 175 SE QD 135 SW QD 170 NW QD
T012 293S 1798E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 140 NW QD
T024 310S 1743W 035 R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 090 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 318S 1697W 030
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 26.7S 173.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 43 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 173.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 29.3S 179.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 31.0S 174.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 31.8S 169.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 27.3S 175.1E.
06MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 489
NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 43 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.//
2321022706 154S1489E 20
2321022712 159S1489E 20
2321022718 164S1488E 25
2321022800 166S1487E 25
2321022806 169S1485E 30
2321022812 171S1482E 30
2321022818 173S1477E 30
2321030100 172S1472E 35
2321030106 167S1468E 35
2321030112 161S1469E 40
2321030118 155S1473E 45
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030500 167S1546E 110
2321030500 167S1546E 110
2321030500 167S1546E 110
2321030506 178S1568E 120
2321030506 178S1568E 120
2321030506 178S1568E 120
2321030512 188S1591E 140
2321030512 188S1591E 140
2321030512 188S1591E 140
2321030518 199S1614E 120
2321030518 199S1614E 120
2321030518 199S1614E 120
2321030600 212S1637E 110
2321030600 212S1637E 110
2321030600 212S1637E 110
2321030606 227S1666E 100
2321030606 227S1666E 100
2321030606 227S1666E 100
2321030612 243S1695E 90
2321030612 243S1695E 90
2321030612 243S1695E 90
2321030618 267S1735E 65
2321030618 267S1735E 65
2321030618 267S1735E 65

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 26.7S 173.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 43 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 173.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 29.3S 179.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 31.0S 174.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 31.8S 169.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 27.3S 175.1E.
06MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 489
NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 43 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED
WITH FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND HAS ACCELERATED RAPIDLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN
FEEDING TOWARD THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME PARTIALLY
EXPOSED. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING
THE 061814Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65KTS IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
(ADT) WITH A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65KTS, WHICH IS
HEDGED LOWER THAN PGTW T5.0/90KTS BOUND BY CONSTRAINTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS OFFSET BY VERY
STRONG (40KTS+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) WHICH HAVE LOWERED TO 24-25C. THE CYCLONE IS CONTINUALLY
ACCELERATING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. HARSH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND SSTS DROPPING TO <24C, WILL LEAD TO RAPID WEAKENING TO 35KTS BY
TAU 24. CONCURRENTLY, TC NIRAN IS ALREADY UNDERGOING A SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION AND WILL BECOME FULLY SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 WITH ONLY A 175NM
SPREAD. AFTERWARDS, THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AS THE ALONG TRACK / CROSS
TRACK SPREAD INCREASES PAST TAU 36. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND LOW CONFIDENCE
THEREAFTER DUE TO THE INCREASING SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 061500
WARNING ATCG MIL 23P SWP 210306131400
2021030612 23P NIRAN 023 01 120 31 SATL 020
T000 243S 1695E 090 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 230 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 269S 1755E 065 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 294S 1780W 050 R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
T036 307S 1711W 040 R034 140 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 24.3S 169.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 31 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.3S 169.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.9S 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 29.4S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 30.7S 171.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 171.0E.
06MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 229
NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 31 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
//
2321022706 154S1489E 20
2321022712 159S1489E 20
2321022718 164S1488E 25
2321022800 166S1487E 25
2321022806 169S1485E 30
2321022812 171S1482E 30
2321022818 173S1477E 30
2321030100 172S1472E 35
2321030106 167S1468E 35
2321030112 161S1469E 40
2321030118 155S1473E 45
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030500 167S1546E 110
2321030500 167S1546E 110
2321030500 167S1546E 110
2321030506 178S1568E 120
2321030506 178S1568E 120
2321030506 178S1568E 120
2321030512 188S1591E 140
2321030512 188S1591E 140
2321030512 188S1591E 140
2321030518 199S1614E 120
2321030518 199S1614E 120
2321030518 199S1614E 120
2321030600 212S1637E 110
2321030600 212S1637E 110
2321030600 212S1637E 110
2321030606 227S1666E 100
2321030606 227S1666E 100
2321030606 227S1666E 100
2321030612 243S1695E 90
2321030612 243S1695E 90
2321030612 243S1695E 90

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 24.3S 169.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 31 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.3S 169.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.9S 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 29.4S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 30.7S 171.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 171.0E.
06MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 229 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
31 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO ELONGATED WITH
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS MORE PRONOUNCED AS IT ACCELERATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON A CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 061059Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90KTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW/KNES DVORAK FINAL-T
ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90KTS AND REFLECTS THE RAPID WEAKENING. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS OFFSET BY STRONG
(30KTS+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) HAVE
ALSO DROPPED TO 26C. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
SUSTAIN THE RAPID WEAKENING DOWN TO 40KTS BY TAU 36. CONCURRENTLY, TC
NIRAN WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AND BY TAU 36 WILL
BECOME A GALE-FORCE SUBTROPICAL LOW, POSSIBLY SOONER. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARD, THE SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST TRACK AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER DUE TO THE INCREASING
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z
IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 060900
WARNING ATCG MIL 23P SWP 210306072036
2021030606 23P NIRAN 022 01 120 31 SATL SYNP 025
T000 227S 1666E 100 R064 060 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 155 SE QD 110 SW QD 180 NW QD
T012 255S 1724E 065 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 281S 1789E 055 R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
T036 302S 1747W 045 R034 140 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 22.7S 166.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 31 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 166.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 25.5S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 28.1S 178.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 30.2S 174.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 168.0E.
06MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45
NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 31 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.
//
2321022706 154S1489E 20
2321022712 159S1489E 20
2321022718 164S1488E 25
2321022800 166S1487E 25
2321022806 169S1485E 30
2321022812 171S1482E 30
2321022818 173S1477E 30
2321030100 172S1472E 35
2321030106 167S1468E 35
2321030112 161S1469E 40
2321030118 155S1473E 45
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030500 167S1546E 110
2321030500 167S1546E 110
2321030500 167S1546E 110
2321030506 178S1568E 120
2321030506 178S1568E 120
2321030506 178S1568E 120
2321030512 188S1591E 140
2321030512 188S1591E 140
2321030512 188S1591E 140
2321030518 199S1614E 120
2321030518 199S1614E 120
2321030518 199S1614E 120
2321030600 212S1637E 110
2321030600 212S1637E 110
2321030600 212S1637E 110
2321030606 227S1666E 100
2321030606 227S1666E 100
2321030606 227S1666E 100

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 22.7S 166.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 31 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 166.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 25.5S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 28.1S 178.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 30.2S 174.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 168.0E.
06MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
31 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED WITH FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT ACCELERATES TO THE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY,
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN FEEDING TOWARD THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN ELONGATED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 0542Z SSMIS
37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF WEAKENING AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND HEDGED CLOSER TO
THE OBJECTIVE ADT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.3/97KTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS OFFSET BY
STRONG (30KTS+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL AT 27C. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE HARSH UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS, SSTS WILL GRADUALLY DROP, LEADING TO RAPID WEAKENING
TO 45KTS BY TAU 36. CONCURRENTLY, TC NIRAN WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 24 AND BY TAU 36 WILL BECOME A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARDS,
THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER DUE TO THE
INCREASING SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 060600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND
070900Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 060300
WARNING ATCG MIL 23P SWP 210306030004
2021030600 23P NIRAN 021 01 120 25 SATL 045
T000 212S 1637E 110 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 235S 1687E 085 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 262S 1742E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 279S 1795E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 140 NW QD
T048 289S 1753W 045 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 21.2S 163.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 163.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.5S 168.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.2S 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 27.9S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 28.9S 175.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 165.0E.
06MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
REVEALS THE EYE HAS FILLED
AND CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE RAGGED AND FRONTAL IN NATURE AS NIRAN ACCELERATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A 052005Z SSMIS PASS REVEALS THE DEGRADATION OF CORE STRUCTURE. THE
INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON TRACKING OF THE FILLING EYE IN MSI AS IT
APPROACHED NEW CALEDONIA. THE INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS,
WHICH IS CLOSE TO CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES AND BELOW AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
BASED ON THE RAPID WEAKENING OBSERVED. ALTHOUGH POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOW 30 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE. ADDITIONALLY, NIRAN IS
TRACKING THROUGH A SHARP GRADIENT OF DECLINING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES.
TC 23P IS TRACKING RAPIDLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE TIGHT UPPER-
LEVEL GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
THIS SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24 WHERE IT TURNS TO A
GENERALLY EASTWARD TRACK. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MOVES INTO COOLER (LESS THAN 26 C)
WATERS AND INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, TC 23P SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AS PERSISTENT HIGH VWS IMPACTS
THE SYSTEM, WEAKENING TO 45 KTS BY TAU 48. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48, IF NOT SOONER. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARDS, THE
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST,
AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NAVGEM'S SOUTHERN OUTLIER TRACK. THERE I
S
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND LOW
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER DUE TO THE INCREASING SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.
//
2321022706 154S1489E 20
2321022712 159S1489E 20
2321022718 164S1488E 25
2321022800 166S1487E 25
2321022806 169S1485E 30
2321022812 171S1482E 30
2321022818 173S1477E 30
2321030100 172S1472E 35
2321030106 167S1468E 35
2321030112 161S1469E 40
2321030118 155S1473E 45
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030500 167S1546E 110
2321030500 167S1546E 110
2321030500 167S1546E 110
2321030506 178S1568E 120
2321030506 178S1568E 120
2321030506 178S1568E 120
2321030512 188S1591E 140
2321030512 188S1591E 140
2321030512 188S1591E 140
2321030518 199S1614E 120
2321030518 199S1614E 120
2321030518 199S1614E 120
2321030600 212S1637E 110
2321030600 212S1637E 110
2321030600 212S1637E 110

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 21.2S 163.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 163.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.5S 168.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.2S 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 27.9S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 28.9S 175.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 165.0E.
06MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THE EYE HAS FILLED
AND CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE RAGGED AND FRONTAL IN NATURE AS
NIRAN ACCELERATES TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 052005Z SSMIS PASS REVEALS THE
DEGRADATION OF CORE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON
TRACKING OF THE FILLING EYE IN MSI AS IT APPROACHED NEW CALEDONIA.
THE INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS, WHICH IS CLOSE TO CIMSS ADT
ESTIMATES AND BELOW AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES GIVEN THE
RAPID WEAKENING OBSERVED. ALTHOUGH POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOW 30 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE.
ADDITIONALLY, NIRAN IS TRACKING THROUGH A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECLINING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES. TC 23P IS TRACKING RAPIDLY
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE TIGHT UPPER-LEVEL GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 24 WHERE IT TURNS TO A GENERALLY EASTWARD TRACK. BY TAU
24, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MOVES INTO
COOLER (LESS THAN 26 C) WATERS AND INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH.
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 23P SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AS
PERSISTENT HIGH VWS IMPACTS THE SYSTEM, WEAKENING TO 45 KTS BY TAU
48. THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48, IF
NOT SOONER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 24. AFTERWARDS, THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST, AND SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NAVGEM'S SOUTHERN
OUTLIER TRACK. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST TRACK AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER DUE TO THE INCREASING
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
060000Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND
070300Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 052100
WARNING ATCG MIL 23P SWP 210305203027
2021030518 23P NIRAN 020 01 115 24 SATL 010
T000 199S 1614E 130 R064 070 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 155 SE QD 120 SW QD 200 NW QD
T012 224S 1661E 110 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 248S 1713E 085 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 269S 1770E 060 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
T048 283S 1778W 045 R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 292S 1699W 040 R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 19.9S 161.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 161.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.4S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 24.8S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 26.9S 177.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 28.3S 177.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 29.2S 169.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 162.6E.
05MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW
CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z
AND 062100Z.//
2321022706 154S1489E 20
2321022712 159S1489E 20
2321022718 164S1488E 25
2321022800 166S1487E 25
2321022806 169S1485E 30
2321022812 171S1482E 30
2321022818 173S1477E 30
2321030100 172S1472E 35
2321030106 167S1468E 35
2321030112 161S1469E 40
2321030118 155S1473E 45
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030500 167S1546E 110
2321030500 167S1546E 110
2321030500 167S1546E 110
2321030506 178S1568E 120
2321030506 178S1568E 120
2321030506 178S1568E 120
2321030512 188S1591E 140
2321030512 188S1591E 140
2321030512 188S1591E 140
2321030518 199S1614E 130
2321030518 199S1614E 130
2321030518 199S1614E 130

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 19.9S 161.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 161.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.4S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 24.8S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 26.9S 177.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 28.3S 177.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 29.2S 169.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 162.6E.
05MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
294 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 12 NM EYE WITH COOLING
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES SURROUNDED BY A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE. A 051741Z SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A TIGHT
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE EYEWALL. THESE EYE FEATURES LEND GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE AGENCY
FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY UNDER
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140KTS)
BASED ON A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 133 KTS, A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T6.5 (127 KTS), AND AN OVERALL RAPIDLY
WEAKENING TREND IN THE SYSTEM STRUCTURE. TC 23P IS TRANSITING
THROUGH A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST
POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
TC 23P IS TRACKING RAPIDLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE TIGHT UPPER-
LEVEL GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
THIS SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 WHERE IT TURNS TO A
GENERALLY EASTWARD TRACK. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MOVES INTO COOLER (LESS THAN 26 C)
WATERS AND INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, TC 23P SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AS PERSISTENT HIGH VWS IMPACTS
THE SYSTEM, WEAKENING TO 40 KTS BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72, IF NOT SOONER. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARDS, THE
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TO A SPREAD OF 453 NM BY TAU 72. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST LIES ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 24
AND THEN TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE NEAR
THE ECMWF TRACK SOLUTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND LOW
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER DUE TO THE INCREASING SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 48 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 051500
WARNING ATCG MIL 23P SWP 210305134830
2021030512 23P NIRAN 019 01 115 24 SATL 020
T000 188S 1591E 140 R064 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 100 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 115 NW QD R034 225 NE QD 175 SE QD 125 SW QD 215 NW QD
T012 210S 1637E 135 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 235S 1685E 120 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 257S 1737E 090 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 275S 1791E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 130 NW QD
T072 292S 1718W 050 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 18.8S 159.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 159.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.0S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.5S 168.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 25.7S 173.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 27.5S 179.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.2S 171.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 160.2E.
05MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAG
ERY SHOWS THAT TC 23P HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION (ERI), HAVING INTEN
SIFIED 30 KTS IN SIX HOURS, WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY COMPACT 10NM EYE, SURROUNDED BY A UNIFORM R
ING OF VERY COLD CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE SMALL EYE FEATURE IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 140 KTS WIT
H HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW T7.0 DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE, A CIMSS ADT CONSTRAINED
ESTIMATE OF T6.3, WITH A RAW ESTIMATE OF T7.0, AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 135 KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT I
S GENERALLY FAVORABLE, THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KTS. HOWEVER THE SHEAR
VECTOR IS IN PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT LOWER RELATIVE VWS, WHICH COMBINED
WITH WARM (28-29C) SSTS AND VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HAS ENABLED THE RECENT ERI. TC 23P IS M
OVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE TIGHT UPPER-LEVEL GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE COMPLEX E
XTENDING FROM FIJI NORTHWEST TO THE EQUATOR AND APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FRO
M THE WEST. THIS SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48, BEFORE TURNING MORE
EASTWARD AT TAU 72. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE ROBUST POLEW
ARD OUTFLOW OFFSETS THE STEADILY INCREASING, BUT IN PHASE, VWS. AFTER TAU 24 THE RATE OF WEAKENING
WILL INCREASE AS DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WEAKENS, VWS INCREASES AND THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER C
OOLER WATERS. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36 AS IT MOVES BEGINS TO INTERAC
T WITH AND EVENTUALLY MOVE UNDER THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND MOVES SOUTH INTO MUCH COOLER WATERS. T
RANSITION TO A STORM FORCE SUBTROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED NO LATER THAN TAU 72, OR POTENTIALLY AS EAR
LY AS TAU 60. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH 150NM SPREAD AT TAU 36. GUIDANCE
IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 36, WITH A 585NM SPREAD BY TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE
CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH TAU 36, THEN TRACKS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE AND CLOS
E TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION THOUGH TAU 72. IN LIGHT OF THE UNCERTAINTY SEEN IN THE LATER TAUS, THERE I
S HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HE
IGHT AT 051200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.//
2321022706 154S1489E 20
2321022712 159S1489E 20
2321022718 164S1488E 25
2321022800 166S1487E 25
2321022806 169S1485E 30
2321022812 171S1482E 30
2321022818 173S1477E 30
2321030100 172S1472E 35
2321030106 167S1468E 35
2321030112 161S1469E 40
2321030118 155S1473E 45
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030500 167S1546E 110
2321030500 167S1546E 110
2321030500 167S1546E 110
2321030506 178S1568E 120
2321030506 178S1568E 120
2321030506 178S1568E 120
2321030512 188S1591E 140
2321030512 188S1591E 140
2321030512 188S1591E 140

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 18.8S 159.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 159.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.0S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.5S 168.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 25.7S 173.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 27.5S 179.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.2S 171.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 160.2E.
05MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 23P HAS UNDERGONE A
PERIOD OF EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION (ERI), HAVING INTENSIFIED 30
KTS IN SIX HOURS, WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY COMPACT 10NM EYE,
SURROUNDED BY A UNIFORM RING OF VERY COLD CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SMALL
EYE FEATURE IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 140 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW T7.0 DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE, A CIMSS ADT CONSTRAINED ESTIMATE OF
T6.3, WITH A RAW ESTIMATE OF T7.0, AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 135 KTS.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE, THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KTS. HOWEVER, THE SHEAR VECTOR IS IN PHASE
WITH THE STORM MOTION RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT LOWER RELATIVE VWS
WHICH, COMBINED WITH WARM (28-29C) SSTS AND VERY STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, HAS ENABLED THE RECENT ERI. TC 23P IS MOVING RAPIDLY
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE TIGHT UPPER-LEVEL GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE COMPLEX EXTENDING FROM FIJI NORTHWEST TO THE EQUATOR AND AN
APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48, BEFORE
TURNING MORE EASTWARD AT TAU 72. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSETS THE
STEADILY INCREASING, BUT IN PHASE, VWS. AFTER TAU 24 THE RATE OF
WEAKENING WILL INCREASE AS DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WEAKENS,
VWS INCREASES AND THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36 AS IT MOVES BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH AND EVENTUALLY MOVE UNDER THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND
INTO MUCH COOLER WATERS. TRANSITION TO A STORM FORCE SUBTROPICAL LOW
IS EXPECTED NO LATER THAN TAU 72, OR POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS TAU 60.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH 150NM SPREAD AT
TAU 36. GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 36, WITH A 585NM
SPREAD BY TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN
THROUGH TAU 36, THEN TRACKS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BULK OF THE
GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION THOUGH TAU 72. IN LIGHT OF
THE UNCERTAINTY SEEN IN THE LATER TAUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 050900
WARNING ATCG MIL 23P SWP 210305070755
2021030506 23P NIRAN 018 01 120 24 SATL 060
T000 178S 1568E 115 R064 065 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 115 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 155 SE QD 115 SW QD 200 NW QD
T012 200S 1612E 120 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 224S 1659E 110 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 247S 1709E 075 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 264S 1761E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 140 NW QD
T072 287S 1739W 050 R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 130 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 156.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 156.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.0S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.4S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 24.7S 170.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 26.4S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 28.7S 173.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 157.9E.
05MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 584
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAG
ERY SHOWS THE EMERGENCE OF A VERY WELL DEFINED 12NM EYE BY THE 0600Z HOUR. A 050557Z SSMIS 91H MIC
ROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED HOWEVER THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT EXTEND ALL THE WAY AROUND THE SYSTEM
, WITH A DISTINCT BREAK IN THE EYEWALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE, INDICATIVE OF INCREASING EASTERLY
WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON BOTH THE SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE AND THE 10NM EYE IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS, H
EDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.5 (127 KTS) AND CLOSELY A
LIGNED TO A 114 KNOT WIND SPEED MEASUREMENT FROM A 050227Z AMSR2 PASS. TC 23P IS RAPIDLY MOVING SO
UTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A COMBINED NEAR EQUATORIAL AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE C
OMPLEX CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR THE MOMENT, WITH MODERATE
(20-25 KT) VWS BEING OFFSET BY VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29C) SSTS. THE SYSTEM IS FOR
ECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
COMPLEX TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY MORE EASTWARD AS IT COMES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
A DYNAMIC LOW TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTH. IN THE NEAR-TERM, GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITI
ONS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 12. THEREAFTER, ENVIRONM
ENTAL CONDITIONS BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE VWS INCREASES TO AN EXTENT THAT THE OUTFLOW C
ANNOT OVERCOME IT AND THE CORE BECOMES DISRUPTED. AFTER TAU 48, VWS WEAKENS A BIT BUT DRY AIR ENTR
AINMENT AND COOL SSTS AT OR BELOW 26C WILL SERVE TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS SUBTROP
ICAL TRANSITION. THE TRANSITION TO A STORM FORCE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE COMPLETE NO LATER THAN
, AND POSSIBLY EARLIER, THAN TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24
BUT CROSS AND ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES N
EAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH TAU 24, THEN NEAR THE ECMWF TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORE
CAST PERIOD. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST, AND LOW CONFI
DENCE THEREAFTER.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z
AND 060900Z.//
2321022706 154S1489E 20
2321022712 159S1489E 20
2321022718 164S1488E 25
2321022800 166S1487E 25
2321022806 169S1485E 30
2321022812 171S1482E 30
2321022818 173S1477E 30
2321030100 172S1472E 35
2321030106 167S1468E 35
2321030112 161S1469E 40
2321030118 155S1473E 45
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030500 167S1546E 110
2321030500 167S1546E 110
2321030500 167S1546E 110
2321030506 178S1568E 115
2321030506 178S1568E 115
2321030506 178S1568E 115

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 156.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 156.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.0S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.4S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 24.7S 170.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 26.4S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 28.7S 173.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 157.9E.
05MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 584
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EMERGENCE OF A VERY WELL
DEFINED 12NM EYE BY 0600Z. HOWEVER, A 050557Z SSMIS 91H MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWED THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT EXTEND ALL THE WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM, WITH A DISTINCT BREAK IN THE EYEWALL ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE, INDICATIVE OF INCREASING EASTERLY WIND SHEAR. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON BOTH THE
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE 10NM EYE IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.5 (127 KTS) AND
CLOSELY ALIGNED TO A 114 KNOT WIND SPEED MEASUREMENT FROM A 050227Z
AMSR2 PASS. TC 23P IS RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A COMBINED NEAR EQUATORIAL AND SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE COMPLEX CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR THE MOMENT WITH MODERATE (20-25 KT) VWS BEING OFFSET
BY VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29C) SSTS. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE
TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE COMPLEX TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN
APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY MORE EASTWARD AS IT COMES
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DYNAMIC LOW TO MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTH. IN THE NEAR-TERM, GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 120
KNOTS BY TAU 12. THEREAFTER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE VWS INCREASES TO AN EXTENT THAT THE
OUTFLOW CANNOT OVERCOME AND THE CORE BECOMES DISRUPTED. AFTER TAU
48, VWS WEAKENS SLIGHTLY, BUT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND COOL SSTS AT
OR BELOW 26C WILL SERVE TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. THE TRANSITION TO A STORM FORCE SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL BE COMPLETE NO LATER THAN, AND POSSIBLY EARLIER THAN,
TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24
BUT CROSS AND ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH
TAU 24, THEN NEAR THE ECMWF TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST, AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 050300
WARNING ATCG MIL 23P SWP 210305022838
2021030500 23P NIRAN 017 01 110 22 SATL 015
T000 167S 1546E 110 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 155 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 135 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 305 NW QD
T012 187S 1587E 125 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 210 NW QD
T024 207S 1630E 110 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 232S 1676E 075 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 255S 1728E 060 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 292S 1766W 050 R050 100 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 16.7S 154.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
305 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 154.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.7S 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.7S 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.2S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 25.5S 172.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.2S 176.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 155.6E.
05MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506
NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.
//
2321022706 154S1489E 20
2321022712 159S1489E 20
2321022718 164S1488E 25
2321022800 166S1487E 25
2321022806 169S1485E 30
2321022812 171S1482E 30
2321022818 173S1477E 30
2321030100 172S1472E 35
2321030106 167S1468E 35
2321030112 161S1469E 40
2321030118 155S1473E 45
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030500 167S1546E 110
2321030500 167S1546E 110
2321030500 167S1546E 110
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 16.7S 154.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
305 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 154.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.7S 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.7S 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.2S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 25.5S 172.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.2S 176.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 155.6E.
05MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506
NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHT EYE (10NM) FEATURE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
INTENSITY FIXES OF T5.5-6.0 (102 KNOTS TO 115 KNOTS). TC 23P IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION
WITH LOW VERITCAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC
23P IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THIS FEATURE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WHILE TC 23P MAINTAINS ITS FAVORABLE
ENIVONRMENT, IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UP TO 125 KNOTS BY TAU 12
BEFORE FALLING STEEPLY TO 75 KNOTS AT TAU 36 AS TC 23P ENCOUNTERS
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS) AND DECREASED UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ALONG ITS TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36 AND COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A STORM
FORCE SUBTROPICAL LOW BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, INCREASING TO AN ALONG TRACK
SPREAD OF 600NM BY TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF CONSENSUS MEAN TRACK AFTER TAU 48. WHILE THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST GIVEN THE COMPACT NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 35
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 042100
WARNING ATCG MIL 23P SWP 210304193539
2021030418 23P NIRAN 016 01 105 20 SATL 030
T000 159S 1525E 095 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 115 SE QD 120 SW QD 190 NW QD
T012 174S 1562E 110 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 200 NW QD
T024 194S 1603E 110 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 218S 1648E 100 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 243S 1699E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 278S 1788W 055 R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 152.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 152.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.4S 156.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.4S 160.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.8S 164.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 24.3S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 27.8S 178.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 153.4E.
04MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390
NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.
//
2321022706 154S1489E 20
2321022712 159S1489E 20
2321022718 164S1488E 25
2321022800 166S1487E 25
2321022806 169S1485E 30
2321022812 171S1482E 30
2321022818 173S1477E 30
2321030100 172S1472E 35
2321030106 167S1468E 35
2321030112 161S1469E 40
2321030118 155S1473E 45
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030412 154S1505E 90
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030418 159S1525E 95
2321030418 159S1525E 95

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 152.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 152.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.4S 156.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.4S 160.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.8S 164.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 24.3S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 27.8S 178.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 153.4E.
04MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390
NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS
CURRENTLY EMBEDDED UNDER DENSE CONVECTION. A 041752Z SSMIS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE CONFIRMS THE POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS BASED OFF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
INTENSITY FIXES OF T5.0-5.5 AND A 041449Z AMSR2 PASS SHOWING A PEAK
WIND SPEED OF 89 KNOTS. TC 23P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW VERITCAL WIND
SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 DEGREES
CELSIUS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 23P HAS RAPIDLY PICKED UP
TRACK SPEED AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE TC 23P
MAINTAINS ITS FAVORABLE ENIVONRMENT, IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UP
TO 110 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AND MAINTAIN AT 110 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 24
BEFORE ENCOUNTERING HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS) AND
DECREASED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 48 AND COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A STORM FORCE SUBTROPICAL LOW BY
TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 24, INCREASING TO 172NM BY TAU 72. THE JTWC LIES CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION, TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN TRACK AFTER TAU
48. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 041500
WARNING ATCG MIL 23P SWP 210304133001
2021030412 23P NIRAN 015 01 085 09 SATL RADR 030
T000 154S 1504E 085 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 115 SE QD 120 SW QD 190 NW QD
T012 161S 1531E 095 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 200 NW QD
T024 180S 1570E 110 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 200 NW QD
T036 206S 1612E 105 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 180 NW QD
T048 230S 1665E 085 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 270S 1770E 065 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 296S 1727W 050 R050 080 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 140 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 15.4S 150.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 150.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.1S 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.0S 157.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.6S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.0S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 27.0S 177.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.6S 172.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 151.1E.
04MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TH
E EYE THAT WAS SO CLEARLY EVIDENT SIX HOURS AGO HAS NOW COMPLETELY FILLED. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTUR
E HAS ALSO DETERIORATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS, AS CONFIRMED BY A 101142Z AMSU-B 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE
SHOWING A CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND A ONLY LOW LEVEL BANDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE S
OUTH. THE SATELLITE DATA ALSO CONFIRMS A MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR, INDICATED BY THE SHARP UP-S
HEAR (EASTERN) EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE. ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM WILLIS ISLAND CONF
IRMED THE RECENT EASTWARD JOG OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS LOWERED SLIGHTLY, TO 85 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERA
GE OF BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN T4.7 TO T5.0. AS TH
E RECENT JOG TO THE EAST INDICATES, THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT B
ETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST. OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER, THE NER SHOULD GAIN PREDOMINANCE AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM, R
ESULTING IN A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. ONCE ESTABLISHED ON THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, TC 23P WILL WILL S
TEADILY ACCELERATE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING RIDGE TO
THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE SY
STEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSITY TO A PEAK OF 110 KTS BY TAU 24 AS IT ENTERS A SHORT PERIOD OF VERY S
TRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND RELATIVELY LOW VWS. THIS INTENSIFICATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND BY TAU
36, THE STEADILY INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SSTS WILL CONSPIRE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT RAPIDLY
TRANSLATES TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48 AND COMP
LETE TRANSITION TO A STORM FORCE SUBTROPICAL LOW BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TI
GHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 WITH SPREAD OF ONLY 50, INCREASING TO 140NM BY TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES NEW CALEDONIA AND BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO SUBTROPICAL, THE GUIDANCE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UN
CERTAIN WITH SOME MODELS (NVGM) UNREALISTICALLY MOVING THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ZEALAND
, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOW A SLOW TURN TOWARDS THE EAST AFTER TAU 72, AS
A STRONG TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS EAST OF NEW ZEALAND. THE JTWC LIES CLOSE TO THE ECM
WF SOLUTION, TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN TRACK AFTER TAU 48. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNI
FICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//
2321022706 154S1489E 20
2321022712 159S1489E 20
2321022718 164S1488E 25
2321022800 166S1487E 25
2321022806 169S1485E 30
2321022812 171S1482E 30
2321022818 173S1477E 30
2321030100 172S1472E 35
2321030106 167S1468E 35
2321030112 161S1469E 40
2321030118 155S1473E 45
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030412 154S1504E 85
2321030412 154S1504E 85
2321030412 154S1504E 85

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 15.4S 150.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 150.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.1S 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.0S 157.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.6S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.0S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 27.0S 177.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.6S 172.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 151.1E.
04MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE THAT WAS SO CLEARLY EVIDENT SIX
HOURS AGO HAS NOW COMPLETELY FILLED. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS
ALSO DETERIORATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS, AS
CONFIRMED BY A 101142Z AMSU-B 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWING A
CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND A ONLY LOW LEVEL BANDS
WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SATELLITE DATA ALSO CONFIRMS A
MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR, INDICATED BY THE SHARP UP-SHEAR
(EASTERN) EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE. ANIMATED RADAR
DATA FROM WILLIS ISLAND CONFIRMED THE RECENT EASTWARD JOG OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS LOWERED SLIGHTLY, TO 85
KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN T4.7 TO T5.0. AS THE RECENT JOG
TO THE EAST INDICATES, THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A RELATIVELY WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST
AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS HOWEVER, THE NER SHOULD GAIN PREDOMINANCE AS THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM, RESULTING IN A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. ONCE
ESTABLISHED ON THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, TC 23P WILL STEADILY
ACCELERATE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 110 KTS BY TAU 24 AS IT ENTERS A SHORT
PERIOD OF VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND RELATIVELY LOW VWS. THIS
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND BY TAU 36, THE STEADILY
INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SSTS WILL CONSPIRE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS
IT RAPIDLY TRANSLATES TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48 AND COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A STORM
FORCE SUBTROPICAL LOW BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 WITH SPREAD OF ONLY 50, INCREASING TO
140NM BY TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES NEW CALEDONIA AND BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO SUBTROPICAL, THE GUIDANCE BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAIN WITH SOME MODELS (NVGM) UNREALISTICALLY MOVING THE SYSTEM
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ZEALAND, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOW A SLOW TURN TOWARDS THE EAST AFTER TAU 72, AS
A STRONG TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS EAST OF NEW ZEALAND.
THE JTWC LIES CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION, TO THE NORTH OF THE
CONSENSUS MEAN TRACK AFTER TAU 48. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 15.5S 149.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 149.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.4S 151.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.0S 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.0S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.0S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 26.0S 173.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 29.1S 175.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 150.1E.
04MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 229
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A 13-NM CLOUD FILLED
EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THREE OF FOUR QUADRANTS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE MSI, ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM WILLIS ISLAND AND A
040610Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION. OVERALL MOTION HAS INCREASED TOWARDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER THE LATEST DATA FROM THE WILLIS ISLAND RADAR SEEM
TO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE ONCE AGAIN BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OR AT LEAST SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND HEDGED
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN A 5.5 (102 KTS) DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM PGTW IN LIGHT OF A T5.0 ESTIMATE FROM ABRF, AN ADT
ESTIMATE OF T4.9 AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 89 KTS. TC 23P CURRENTLY
LIES IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30C) SSTS, LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND GOOD,
NEARLY RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE NEAR-TERM SLOW
DOWN IN FORWARD MOTION, TC 23P REMAINS COCOONED IN A COMPETING
STEERING PATTERN, BETWEEN THE STRONG NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO
THE NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED OVER CENTRAL
AUSTRALIA. HOWEVER, ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT IN THE NEAR-TERM,
TC 23P WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE NER BECOMES THE DOMINATE
STEERING MECHANISM, INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES UNDER THE
ENHANCED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST AND A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE PRESENCE OF A SMALL
EYE AND A CYAN RING FEATURE IN A 040359Z AMSR2 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE
IMAGE INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM. OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, OUTFLOW
WILL IMPROVE SUBSTANTIALLY AS IT BEGINS TO TAP INTO THE THE
DIVERGENT FLOW AHEAD THE APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
ALLOWING FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 120
KTS AT TAU 24, BEFORE INCREASING VWS BEGINS SLOWLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 48, AS IT RIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOVES UNDER THE STRONG WESTERLIES, AND SHOULD
COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A STORM FORCE SUBTROPICAL LOW BY TAU 96.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH
SPREAD INCREASING TO 760NM BETWEEN THE NAVGEM AND GFS OUTLIERS AT
TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST DISCOUNTS THE UNREALISTIC NAVGEM SOLUTION,
AND LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z,
050300Z AND 050900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 040900
WARNING ATCG MIL 23P SWP 210304072708
2021030406 23P NIRAN 014 01 110 09 SATL RADR 020
T000 155S 1495E 090 R064 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T012 164S 1518E 105 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 200 NW QD
T024 180S 1553E 120 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 210 NW QD
T036 200S 1592E 115 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 220S 1634E 095 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 260S 1738E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 291S 1751W 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 15.5S 149.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 149.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.4S 151.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.0S 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.0S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.0S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 26.0S 173.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 29.1S 175.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 150.1E.
04MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 229
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A 13-NM CLOUD FILLED EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION SURROU
NDING THREE OF FOUR QUADRANTS. THE COMBINATION OF THE MSI, ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM WILLIS ISLAND
AND A 040610Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. OVERAL
L MOTION HAS INCREASED TOWARDS TO THE SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER THE LATEST DATA FROM THE WILLIS ISLAND RA
DAR SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE ONCE AGAIN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OR AT LEAST SIGNI
FICANTLY SLOWED DOWN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND HEDGED
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN A 5.5 (102 KTS) DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW IN LIGHT OF A T5.0
ESTIMATE FROM ABRF, AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T4.9 AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 89 KTS. TC 23P CURRENTLY LIE
S IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30C) SSTS, LOW (5-1
0 KTS) VWS AND GOOD, NEARLY RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE NEAR-TERM SLOW DOWN IN F
ORWARD MOTION, TC 23P REMAINS COCOONED IN A COMPETING STEERING PATTERN, BETWEEN THE STRONG NEAR-EQ
UATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRA
LIA. HOWEVER, ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT IN THE NEAR-TERM, TC 23P WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWAR
D AS THE NER BECOMES THE DOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM, INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES UNDER T
HE ENHANCED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST AND A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FRO
M THE WEST. THE PRESENCE OF A SMALL EYE AND A CYAN RING FEATURE IN A 040359Z AMSR2 37GHZ COLOR COM
POSITE IMAGE INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM. OVE
R THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, OUTFLOW WILL IMPROVE SUBSTANTIALLY AS IT BEGINS TO TAP INTO THE THE DIVERG
ENT FLOW AHEAD THE APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF RAPID INTENS
IFICATION, PEAKING AT 120 KTS AT TAU 24, BEFORE INCREASING VWS BEGINS SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TH
E SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48, AS IT RIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NO
RTHERN EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOVES UNDER THE STRONG WESTERLIES, AND SHOULD COMPLETE TRAN
SITION TO A STORM FORCE SUBTROPICAL LOW BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT T
HROUGH TAU 48, WITH SPREAD INCREASING TO 760NM BETWEEN THE NAVGEM AND GFS OUTLIERS AT TAU 96. THE
JTWC FORECAST DISCOUNTS THE UNREALISTIC NAVGEM SOLUTION, AND LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUID
ANCE ENVELOPE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGH
T AT 040600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.
//
2321022706 154S1489E 20
2321022712 159S1489E 20
2321022718 164S1488E 25
2321022800 166S1487E 25
2321022806 169S1485E 30
2321022812 171S1482E 30
2321022818 173S1477E 30
2321030100 172S1472E 35
2321030106 167S1468E 35
2321030112 161S1469E 40
2321030118 155S1473E 45
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1479E 70
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030318 150S1482E 80
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030400 152S1486E 85
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030406 155S1495E 90
2321030406 155S1495E 90

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 040300
WARNING ATCG MIL 23P SWP 210304015124
2021030400 23P NIRAN 013 01 090 04 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 152S 1487E 085 R064 050 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 105 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 105 SE QD 125 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 159S 1506E 100 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 200 NW QD
T024 173S 1535E 120 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 210 NW QD
T036 193S 1572E 115 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 210 NW QD
T048 217S 1618E 095 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 190 NW QD
T072 259S 1722E 070 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T096 290S 1767W 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 15.2S 148.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 148.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.9S 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.3S 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.3S 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.7S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 25.9S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.0S 176.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 149.2E.
04MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 196
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
2321022706 154S1489E 20
2321022712 159S1489E 20
2321022718 164S1488E 25
2321022800 166S1487E 25
2321022806 169S1485E 30
2321022812 171S1482E 30
2321022818 173S1477E 30
2321030100 172S1472E 35
2321030106 167S1468E 35
2321030112 161S1469E 40
2321030118 155S1473E 45
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030306 149S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1480E 70
2321030312 148S1480E 70
2321030312 148S1480E 70
2321030318 152S1483E 80
2321030318 152S1483E 80
2321030318 152S1483E 80
2321030400 152S1487E 85
2321030400 152S1487E 85
2321030400 152S1487E 85

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 15.2S 148.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 148.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.9S 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.3S 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.3S 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.7S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 25.9S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.0S 176.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 149.2E.
04MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 196
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FORMATIVE 20-NM EYE WITHIN A SYMMETRIC
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH A BANDING FEATURE OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. MSI SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE RECENT
EASTWARD TRACK MOTION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY
FROM THE WILLIS ISLAND RADAR REVEALS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL DEFINED EYEWALL WITH A SMALL BREAK IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T4.5 (77 KNOTS) TO T5.0 (90 KNOTS). TC 23P IS LOCATED
ABOUT 98NM NORTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND (16.29S 149.97E), WHICH IS
REPORTING 10-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-30 KTS GUSTING TO 37 KTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SST VALUES (29-30C).
TC 23P IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A STRONG MAJOR
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND THE STEERING RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
260NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72 LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. BASED ON THE TRIGGERING OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION PREDICTION AIDS, THE PRESENCE OF A COMPACT CYAN RING
FEATURE IN THE 032031Z SSMIS 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE, WHICH IS
TYPICALLY INDICATIVE OF IMMINENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION, AND THE
FORMATION OF A SMALL EYE IN EIR, TC 23P IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 24 BUT THIS COULD OCCUR
EARLIER AND PEAK AT A HIGHER INTENSITY. AFTER TAU 36, TC 23P WILL
ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES
AND WILL WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. NEAR
TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND INTERACTS
WITH WEAK BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS A STORM-
FORCE LOW BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 032100
WARNING ATCG MIL 23P SWP 210303193200
2021030318 23P NIRAN 012 01 140 06 SATL RADR SYNP 010
T000 153S 1482E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 156S 1496E 095 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 168S 1519E 115 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 190 NW QD
T036 185S 1553E 110 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 200 NW QD
T048 208S 1595E 095 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 190 NW QD
T072 259S 1695E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 170 NW QD
T096 312S 1794W 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 148.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 148.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.6S 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.8S 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.5S 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.8S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 25.9S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 31.2S 179.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 148.6E.
03MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
168 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.//
2321022706 154S1489E 20
2321022712 159S1489E 20
2321022718 164S1488E 25
2321022800 166S1487E 25
2321022806 169S1485E 30
2321022812 171S1482E 30
2321022818 173S1477E 30
2321030100 172S1472E 35
2321030106 167S1468E 35
2321030112 161S1469E 40
2321030118 155S1473E 45
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030212 148S1481E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030218 149S1482E 55
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030300 149S1480E 65
2321030306 148S1479E 70
2321030306 148S1479E 70
2321030306 148S1479E 70
2321030312 148S1478E 70
2321030312 148S1478E 70
2321030312 148S1478E 70
2321030318 153S1482E 80
2321030318 153S1482E 80
2321030318 153S1482E 80

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 148.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 148.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.6S 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.8S 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.5S 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.8S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 25.9S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 31.2S 179.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 148.6E.
03MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
168 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FORMATIVE 10-NM EYE WITHIN A SYMMETRIC
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH A BANDING FEATURE OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. EIR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ACCELERATION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 031808Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS)
FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 23P IS LOCATED ABOUT 62NM EAST OF
BOUGAINVILLE REEF (15.49S 147.12E), WHICH IS REPORTING 10-MINUTE
SUSTAINED GALE-FORCE WINDS (35-40 KNOTS) GUSTING AS HIGH AS 51
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM'S EYEWALL IS EVIDENT ON THE WILLIS ISLAND RADAR
WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SST VALUES (29-30C). TC 23P IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN THE
ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A STRONG MAJOR TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND THE
STEERING RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 130NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72 LENDING
MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. BASED ON THE
TRIGGERING OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION PREDICTION AIDS, THE PRESENCE OF
A COMPACT CYAN RING FEATURE IN THE 031808Z SSMIS 37GHZ COLOR
COMPOSITE IMAGE, WHICH IS TYPICALLY INDICATIVE OF IMMINENT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, AND THE FORMATION OF A SMALL EYE IN EIR, TC 23P IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY TO A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 24 BUT
THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER AND PEAK AT A HIGHER INTENSITY. AFTER TAU
36, TC 23P WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND WILL WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. NEAR TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES AND INTERACTS WITH WEAK BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION AS A STORM-FORCE LOW BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z,
041500Z AND 042100Z.//
NNNN
0000006300
959
NCNC02 EGRR 032100
88889 444 00147 10059 20004=

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 030300
WARNING ATCG MIL 23P SWP 210303024312
2021030300 23P NIRAN 009 01 090 01 SATL 050
T000 147S 1483E 065 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 148S 1485E 070 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 151S 1492E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 080 SE QD 100 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 158S 1510E 085 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 169S 1536E 090 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 210 NW QD
T072 205S 1609E 080 R064 050 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 310 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 210 NW QD
T096 258S 1714E 060 R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
T120 303S 1786E 050 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 120 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 14.7S 148.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 148.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.8S 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.1S 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.8S 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.9S 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.5S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 25.8S 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 30.3S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 148.3E.
03MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 196
NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//
2321022706 154S1489E 20
2321022712 159S1489E 20
2321022718 164S1488E 25
2321022800 166S1487E 25
2321022806 169S1485E 30
2321022812 171S1482E 30
2321022818 173S1477E 30
2321030100 172S1472E 35
2321030106 167S1468E 35
2321030112 161S1469E 40
2321030118 155S1473E 45
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030206 149S1479E 50
2321030212 147S1481E 55
2321030212 147S1481E 55
2321030218 147S1482E 55
2321030218 147S1482E 55
2321030300 147S1483E 65
2321030300 147S1483E 65
2321030300 147S1483E 65

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 14.7S 148.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 148.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.8S 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.1S 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.8S 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.9S 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.5S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 25.8S 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 30.3S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 148.3E.
03MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 196
NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 01 KNOT
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AND EXPAND
IN THE CORAL SEA. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE USING A 022046Z SSMIS 37GHZ AND 91GHZ PASS THAT INDICATES
A MICROWAVE EYE BEGINNING TO FORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65KTS IS
BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS OVERALL ASSESSMENT FROM MULTIPLE
AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65KTS) FROM
PGTW/ABRF/KNES, AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF T3.3 (51 KTS) AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
WITH MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, VERY WARM (29-30C)
SSTS, AND FAIR RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 23P REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY
AND DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AS IT REMAINS IN A COMPLEX
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST OVER AUSTRALIA. ONCE
THE NER BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND NUDGES THE
SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO
EJECT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS DUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN
INCREASE OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 90KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE CYCLONE DOWN TO 50KTS
BY TAU 120. NEAR TAU 96 THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND COMPLETE TRANSITION BY TAU
120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
FORECAST WITH SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS IN ALONG TRACK SPEED IN THE
NEAR-TERM AS NIRAN BEGINS TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
ALONG TRACK / CROSS TRACK SPREAD IS NOW LESS THAN 200NM BY TAU 48,
HOWEVER, BY TAU 120 ALONG TRACK / CROSS TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO
WELL OVER 1,300NM, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z,
032100Z AND 040300Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 022100
WARNING ATCG MIL 23P SWP 210302202034
2021030218 23P NIRAN 008 01 105 04 SATL 060
T000 149S 1486E 055 R050 045 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 120 SE QD 105 SW Q
D 085 NW QD
T012 152S 1491E 060 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 120 NW QD
T024 157S 1500E 065 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
T036 163S 1516E 070 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 200 NW QD
T048 174S 1544E 075 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 130 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 208S 1609E 080 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 220 NW QD
T096 265S 1718E 070 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 030 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T120 320S 1780W 055 R050 080 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 140 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 14.9S 148.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 148.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.2S 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.7S 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.3S 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.4S 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.8S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 26.5S 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 32.0S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 148.7E.
02MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 201
NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//
2321022706 154S1489E 20
2321022712 159S1489E 20
2321022718 164S1488E 25
2321022800 166S1487E 25
2321022806 169S1485E 30
2321022812 171S1482E 30
2321022818 173S1477E 30
2321030100 172S1472E 35
2321030106 167S1468E 35
2321030112 161S1469E 40
2321030118 155S1473E 45
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030206 148S1480E 50
2321030206 148S1480E 50
2321030212 148S1482E 55
2321030212 148S1482E 55
2321030218 149S1486E 55
2321030218 149S1486E 55

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 14.9S 148.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 148.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.2S 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.7S 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.3S 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.4S 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.8S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 26.5S 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 32.0S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 148.7E.
02MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 201
NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST CONTINUING TO
DEEPEN AND EXPAND IN THE CORAL SEA. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING A 021820 SSMIS 37GHZ AND 91GHZ
PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
AS OVERALL ASSESSMENT FROM MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS PGTW AND ABRF, AND ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
(ADT) OF T3.4 (53 KTS), KNES ASSESSED SLIGHTLY LOWER AT T3.0/45KTS.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (15-
20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, VERY WARM (29-30C) SSTS, AND WEAK
RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 23P IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
AS THE SYSTEM RESIDES BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST OVER AUSTRALIA. THE
NER WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND NUDGE THE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND DRIVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS DUE TO PASS SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA
BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN INCREASE OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INTENSIFY
TO A PEAK OF 80KTS BY TAU 72. NEAR TAU 96 THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WITH INCREASING
VWS AND COOLING SSTS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ERODE DOWN TO 55KTS
BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
FORECAST WITH SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS IN ALONG TRACK SPEED IN THE
NEAR-TERM AS NIRAN BEGINS TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
ACROSS TRACK SPREAD IS NOW LESS THAN 400NM BY TAU 72, HOWEVER, BY
TAU 120 THE ACROSS TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO WELL OVER 1,300NM,
LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE
TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z
IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 021500
WARNING ATCG MIL 23P SWP 210302125233
2021030212 23P NIRAN 007 01 090 02 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 148S 1482E 055 R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 145 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T012 149S 1487E 055 R050 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 110 NW QD
T024 151S 1491E 055 R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 120 NW QD
T036 155S 1501E 060 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 190 NW QD
T048 164S 1523E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 220 NW QD
T072 200S 1595E 070 R064 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 180 SE QD 180 SW QD 240 NW QD
T096 254S 1693E 080 R064 040 NE QD 010 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 280 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 220 NW QD
T120 319S 1796W 065 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 020 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 14.8S 148.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 148.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 14.9S 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.1S 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.5S 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.4S 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.0S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 25.4S 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 31.9S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 148.3E.
02MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187
NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.
//
2321022706 154S1489E 20
2321022712 159S1489E 20
2321022718 164S1488E 25
2321022800 166S1487E 25
2321022806 169S1485E 30
2321022812 171S1482E 30
2321022818 173S1477E 30
2321030100 172S1472E 35
2321030106 167S1468E 35
2321030112 161S1469E 40
2321030118 155S1473E 45
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030206 148S1480E 50
2321030206 148S1480E 50
2321030212 148S1482E 55
2321030212 148S1482E 55

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 14.8S 148.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 148.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 14.9S 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.1S 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.5S 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.4S 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.0S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 25.4S 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 31.9S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 148.3E.
02MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187
NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND
EXPAND. ADDITIONALLY, A 020830Z MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE SUNSET
IMAGE, SHOWED OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS AND A DIMPLE FEATURE NEAR THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS EXTRAPOLATED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE FROM THE RAGGED, PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
FEATURE IN THE 020854Z AMSU PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T3.0/45KTS (PGTW), T3.5/55KTS (ABRF), T4.0/65KTS (KNES), AND
T3.6/57KTS (ADT) THAT REFLECTS THE IMPROVED CONDITION OF THE SYSTEM.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, VERY WARM (29-30C) SSTS, PARTLY OFFSET BY LIMITED
OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 23P IS QUASI-STATIONARY IN A COL BETWEEN THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) EXTENDED FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM, AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST OVER AUSTRALIA. THE
NER IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM
AND SLOWLY NUDGE THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE COL, AND BY TAU 24, DRIVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARD, PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA BEFORE AROUND TAU
78, AND BY TAU 120, SHOULD BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND. THE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A SLOW INTENSIFICATION
TO A PEAK OF 80KTS BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO INCREASED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE
CYCLONE DOWN TO 65KTS BY TAU 120. CONCURRENTLY, IT WILL ENTER THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST WITH
SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS IN ALONG TRACK SPEED IN THE NEAR-TERM AS THE
TC TRANSITIONS FROM THE COL AND ACROSS TRACK SPREAD TO OVER 1,000NM
BY TAU 120, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT
IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z,
030900Z AND 031500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 020900
WARNING ATCG MIL 23P SWP 210302070713
2021030206 23P NIRAN 006 01 055 04 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 148S 1480E 050 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 148S 1484E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 150S 1487E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 060 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 152S 1491E 065 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 158S 1508E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 185S 1570E 075 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 200 NW QD
T096 231S 1656E 080 R064 040 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 200 NW QD
T120 291S 1762E 070 R064 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 148.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 148.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 14.8S 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.0S 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.2S 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.8S 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.5S 157.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 23.1S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 29.1S 176.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 148.1E.
02MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179
NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.
//
2321022706 154S1489E 20
2321022712 159S1489E 20
2321022718 164S1488E 25
2321022800 166S1487E 25
2321022806 169S1485E 30
2321022812 171S1482E 30
2321022818 173S1477E 30
2321030100 172S1472E 35
2321030106 167S1468E 35
2321030112 161S1469E 40
2321030118 155S1473E 45
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030200 150S1477E 50
2321030206 148S1480E 50
2321030206 148S1480E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 148.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 148.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 14.8S 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.0S 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.2S 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.8S 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.5S 157.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 23.1S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 29.1S 176.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 148.1E.
02MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CONSOLIDATION AS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
DEEPENED AND THE COMPACT RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO AN OBSCURED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE ASED ON A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 0410Z ASMR2
37GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50KTS IS AVERAGED
FROM AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS (PGTW/KNES) AND
THE SATCON OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5/55KTS AND REFLECTS THE
IMPROVED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE
WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), VERY WARM (29-30C)
SSTS, OFFSET BY A LIMITED OUTFLOW PATTERN. TC 23P IS SLOWLY MOVING
OUT OF A COL BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) EXTENDED FROM
THE NORTH TO SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE WEST OVER AUSTRALIA. THE NER IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND BECOME THE
DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND SLOWLY NUDGE THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE
COL, AND BY TAU 24, DRIVE IT INTO A SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY,
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA BEFORE TAU 96, AND BY TAU 120,
SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF NEW ZEALAND. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80KTS
BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS IT
APPROACHES THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SSTS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE CYCLONE DOWN TO 70KTS BY TAU
120. CONCURRENTLY, IT WILL ENTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK FORECAST WITH SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS IN ALONG TRACK SPEED
IN THE NEAR-TERM AS THE TC TRANSITIONS FROM THE COL AND ACROSS TRACK
SPREAD TO OVER 700NM BY TAU 120, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 020300
WARNING ATCG MIL 23P SWP 210302022311
2021030200 23P NIRAN 005 01 045 06 SATL 035
T000 151S 1477E 045 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 150S 1479E 050 R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T024 149S 1481E 055 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T036 150S 1486E 060 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T048 154S 1493E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 167S 1530E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T096 191S 1588E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 170 NW QD
T120 240S 1664E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 180 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 15.1S 147.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 147.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 15.0S 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 14.9S 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.0S 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.4S 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.7S 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.1S 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 24.0S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 147.7E.
02MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 154
NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z, AND 030300Z.//
2321022706 154S1489E 20
2321022712 159S1489E 20
2321022718 164S1488E 25
2321022800 166S1487E 25
2321022806 169S1485E 30
2321022812 171S1482E 30
2321022818 173S1477E 30
2321030100 172S1472E 35
2321030106 167S1468E 35
2321030112 161S1469E 40
2321030118 155S1473E 45
2321030200 151S1477E 45

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 15.1S 147.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 147.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 15.0S 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 14.9S 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.0S 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.4S 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.7S 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.1S 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 24.0S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 147.7E.
02MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 154
NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
(MSI) IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG FLARING CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING NEAR
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING A BULLSEYE PASS FROM A 012353Z METOP-B
ASCAT. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHT TILT TO THE WEST
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER LEVELS USING THE TWO MICROWAVE
IMAGES FROM 012100Z SSMIS 37GHZ AND 91GHZ WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF THE
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND OBSERVATIONS
FROM BOUGAINVILLE REEF INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST AND VALIDATE THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW OF T2.5 (35
KTS), AND MORE IN LINE WITH KNES/ABRF AND ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
(ADT) T3.0 (45KTS), AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE. THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT IS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE; VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS
LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KTS) FROM THE EAST, SSTS ARE VERY WARM (29-
30C) AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A MORE DEFINED
RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE STEERING PATTERN REMAINS COMPLEX, WITH THE
SYSTEM REMAINING TRAPPED BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO
THE NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA.
THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS
THE STR TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHWEST WHILE
THE NER STRENGTHENS AND MOVES SOUTHWEST, INCREASING THE GRADIENT TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING IT TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER
A SLOW QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK. ONCE ESTABLISHED ON THE SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DURING TAU 48, AND THE OUTFLOW IMPROVES BY TAPPING INTO THE
DEEP WESTERLIES. THE OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A FASTER RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION REACHING A PEAK OF 70 KTS BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS WOULD
BE EXPECTED FOR A SYSTEM IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND WILL
MOST LIKELY FAVOR A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AND DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE ALONG-TRACK
SPREAD REMAINS LARGE AT 600NM BETWEEN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH GFS
AND ECMWF. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND DUE TO THE LARGE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IN
LATER TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z, AND 030300Z.//

>