Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIAN-21
in Cocos (Keeling) Islands,

Global Telecommunication Service

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2021-03-01 13:44


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 011400
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 210301125440
2021030112 22S MARIAN 008 01 240 04 SATL 040
T000 183S 0895E 085 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 160 SE QD 155 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 186S 0892E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 189S 0894E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 192S 0902E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 199S 0914E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 219S 0936E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 246S 0955E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 272S 0968E 045 R034 100 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 18.3S 89.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 89.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.6S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.9S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.2S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.9S 91.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 21.9S 93.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 24.6S 95.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 27.2S 96.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 89.4E.
01MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560
NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OF COOLED AND THE EYE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY RAGGED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 011045Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED A WELL DEFINED MIC EYE FEATURE, WHICH LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE ACCOMPANYING 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME TILTED ALONG THE DOWN-SHEAR AXIS, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL EYE TILTED TO THE SOUTH FROM THE LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE, CONFIRMED BY HWRF CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS. THE
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 28 FEET. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 85 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHT LOWER THAN AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KTS) AND MUCH LOWER THAN THE ADT ESTIMATE OF T5.6, BASED ON THE OVERALL WEAKENED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, AND THE INCREASINGLY RAGGED EYE STRUCTURE. TC 22S HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY, BECOMING NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, TRAPPED BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRANSIENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH WHICH IS EFFECTIVELY LIMITING MUCH FURTHER POLEWARD MOVEMENT. WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW (5-10 KTS), UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS IS MUCH WEAKER AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ISOLATED FOR ANY TAP INTO THE DEEP WESTERLIES. UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS, AND THE DECREASE IN OUTFLOW ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR ANY INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE STR TO THE SOUTH WILL TRANSIT EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING, WHILE A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST, LEADING TO A TRANSITION OF THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM TO THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 22S WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE NER AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AFTER TAU 24 IN RESPONSE. AS THE SYSTEM TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL MOVE OVER STEADILY COOLER SSTS AND ENCOUNTER CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 120. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A SUBTROPICAL LOW AFTER TAU 96 AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE UNDER AN MID-LEVEL LOW AND EXHIBITS WEAK THERMAL ADVECTION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 65NM SPREAD INCREASING TO ONLY 120NM AT TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z AND 021500Z.//
2221022318 130S1163E 20
2221022400 125S1150E 25
2221022406 126S1128E 25
2221022412 125S1111E 25
2221022418 125S1088E 25
2221022500 127S1069E 25
2221022506 131S1055E 25
2221022512 135S1043E 30
2221022518 139S1028E 30
2221022600 142S1004E 45
2221022606 145S 985E 50
2221022606 145S 985E 50
2221022612 146S 970E 60
2221022612 146S 970E 60
2221022618 146S 960E 60
2221022618 146S 960E 60
2221022700 148S 950E 65
2221022700 148S 950E 65
2221022700 148S 950E 65
2221022706 153S 941E 65
2221022706 153S 941E 65
2221022706 153S 941E 65
2221022712 159S 933E 70
2221022712 159S 933E 70
2221022712 159S 933E 70
2221022718 163S 927E 75
2221022718 163S 927E 75
2221022718 163S 927E 75
2221022800 168S 921E 85
2221022800 168S 921E 85
2221022800 168S 921E 85
2221022806 171S 917E 95
2221022806 171S 917E 95
2221022806 171S 917E 95
2221022812 175S 912E 105
2221022812 175S 912E 105
2221022812 175S 912E 105
2221022818 177S 909E 95
2221022818 177S 909E 95
2221022818 177S 909E 95
2221030100 179S 903E 90
2221030100 179S 903E 90
2221030100 179S 903E 90
2221030106 181S 899E 90
2221030106 181S 899E 90
2221030106 181S 899E 90
2221030112 183S 895E 85
2221030112 183S 895E 85
2221030112 183S 895E 85
NNNN

>

2021-03-01 13:39


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 011400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 18.3S 89.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 89.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.6S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.9S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.2S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.9S 91.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 21.9S 93.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 24.6S 95.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 27.2S 96.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 89.4E.
01MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560
NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
TOPS OF COOLED AND THE EYE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY RAGGED OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. A 011045Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED A WELL
DEFINED MIC EYE FEATURE, WHICH LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE ACCOMPANYING 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME TILTED ALONG THE DOWN-SHEAR AXIS, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL EYE
TILTED TO THE SOUTH FROM THE LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE, CONFIRMED BY HWRF
CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 85
KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHT LOWER THAN AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T5.0 (90 KTS) AND MUCH LOWER THAN THE ADT ESTIMATE OF T5.6, BASED ON
THE OVERALL WEAKENED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, AND THE INCREASINGLY
RAGGED EYE STRUCTURE. TC 22S HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY, BECOMING
NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, TRAPPED BETWEEN A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRANSIENT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH WHICH IS EFFECTIVELY LIMITING
MUCH FURTHER POLEWARD MOVEMENT. WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
REMAINS LOW (5-10 KTS), UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS IS MUCH WEAKER AS
THE SYSTEM BECOMES ISOLATED FOR ANY TAP INTO THE DEEP WESTERLIES.
UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS, AND THE DECREASE IN OUTFLOW ARE THE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR ANY INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, THE STR TO THE SOUTH WILL TRANSIT EASTWARD WHILE
WEAKENING, WHILE A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST, LEADING TO A TRANSITION OF THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM TO
THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 22S WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD
WITHIN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE NER AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
AFTER TAU 24 IN RESPONSE. AS THE SYSTEM TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD IT
WILL MOVE OVER STEADILY COOLER SSTS AND ENCOUNTER CONVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT, LEADING TO STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 120. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A SUBTROPICAL LOW AFTER TAU 96 AS
IT BEGINS TO MOVE UNDER A MID-LEVEL LOW AND EXHIBITS WEAK THERMAL
ADVECTION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 65NM
SPREAD INCREASING TO ONLY 120NM AT TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z AND 021500Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-28 14:15


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 281500
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 210228132218
2021022812 22S MARIAN 006 01 230 05 SATL 030
T000 174S 0913E 100 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 178S 0906E 100 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 181S 0900E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 184S 0898E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 186S 0902E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 192S 0922E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 208S 0949E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 227S 0975E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 91.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 91.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.8S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.1S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.4S 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.6S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.2S 92.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.8S 94.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 22.7S 97.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 91.1E.
28FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 22S HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH THE EYE CLEARING OUT AND ENLARGING TO 30 NM. CONVECTION HAS WARMED BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF COOLING ONCE MORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN A 281058Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. THE MICROWAVE DATA ALSO ALSO SHOWED THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND THAT THE EYE WALL IS NOT CLOSED ON THE EASTERN SIDE DUE TO LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN T5.0-T5.5 (90-102 KTS) FROM APRF AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY, AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T5.8 (109 KTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 111 KTS, DUE TO THE WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (27-28C) SSTS, LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXHIBITING TROCHOIDAL MOTION ABOUT THE OVERALL AVERAGE MOTION VECTOR TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH BUILDS, BLOCKING FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE STR RAPIDLY TRANSITS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS, ALLOWING FOR THE NER TO THE NORTH TO RESUME THE DOMINATE STEERING ROLE. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP NER TO THE NORTH, AND AHEAD OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TC 22S HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER THIS POINT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLERS SSTS AND DECREASED OUTFLOW AS IT BECOMES ISOLATED FROM ANY DISTINCT OUTFLOW CHANNELS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER TAUS BEYOND TAU 72, RESULTING IN A 270NM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48, THEN CLOSELY TRACKS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 120. IN LIGHT OF THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE ULTIMATE MOTION IN THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AFTER TAU 24, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.//
2221022318 130S1163E 20
2221022400 125S1150E 25
2221022406 126S1128E 25
2221022412 125S1111E 25
2221022418 125S1088E 25
2221022500 127S1069E 25
2221022506 131S1055E 25
2221022512 135S1043E 30
2221022518 139S1028E 30
2221022600 142S1004E 45
2221022606 145S 985E 50
2221022606 145S 985E 50
2221022612 146S 970E 60
2221022612 146S 970E 60
2221022618 146S 960E 60
2221022618 146S 960E 60
2221022700 148S 950E 65
2221022700 148S 950E 65
2221022700 148S 950E 65
2221022706 153S 941E 65
2221022706 153S 941E 65
2221022706 153S 941E 65
2221022712 159S 933E 70
2221022712 159S 933E 70
2221022712 159S 933E 70
2221022718 163S 927E 75
2221022718 163S 927E 75
2221022718 163S 927E 75
2221022800 168S 921E 80
2221022800 168S 921E 80
2221022800 168S 921E 80
2221022806 171S 917E 85
2221022806 171S 917E 85
2221022806 171S 917E 85
2221022812 174S 913E 100
2221022812 174S 913E 100
2221022812 174S 913E 100
NNNN

>

2021-02-28 14:14


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 91.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 91.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.8S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.1S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.4S 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.6S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.2S 92.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.8S 94.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 22.7S 97.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 91.1E.
28FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 22S HAS UNDERGONE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH THE EYE CLEARING OUT
AND ENLARGING TO 30 NM. CONVECTION HAS WARMED BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF COOLING ONCE MORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN A 281058Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. THE MICROWAVE DATA ALSO ALSO SHOWED
THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE
AND THAT THE EYE WALL IS NOT CLOSED ON THE EASTERN SIDE DUE TO LIGHT
BUT PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 100 KTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN
T5.0-T5.5 (90-102 KTS) FROM APRF AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY, AN ADT
ESTIMATE OF T5.8 (109 KTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 111 KTS, DUE TO
THE WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (27-28C) SSTS, LOW (5-10
KTS) VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM LIES IN A COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXHIBITING TROCHOIDAL MOTION
ABOUT THE OVERALL AVERAGE MOTION VECTOR TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH BUILDS, BLOCKING FURTHER
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE STR RAPIDLY TRANSITS
EASTWARD AND WEAKENS, ALLOWING FOR THE NER TO THE NORTH TO RESUME
THE DOMINATE STEERING ROLE. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP NER TO THE
NORTH, AND AHEAD OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. TC 22S HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER THIS POINT
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
COOLERS SSTS AND DECREASED OUTFLOW AS IT BECOMES ISOLATED FROM ANY
DISTINCT OUTFLOW CHANNELS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER
TAUS BEYOND TAU 72, RESULTING IN A 270NM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48, THEN CLOSELY TRACKS THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 120. IN LIGHT OF THE
UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE ULTIMATE MOTION IN THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AFTER TAU 24, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-26 14:43


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 261500
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 210226134506
2021022612 22S MARIAN 002 01 260 15 SATL 020
T000 148S 0970E 060 R050 045 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 170 SE QD 155 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 153S 0945E 065 R064 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 220 SE QD 190 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 158S 0929E 070 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 164S 0917E 075 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 170S 0908E 080 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 180S 0897E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 187S 0896E 080 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 196S 0912E 065 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 14.8S 97.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 97.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.3S 94.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.8S 92.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 16.4S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.0S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.0S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.7S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.6S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 96.4E.
26FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
167 NM SOUTH OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z.
//
2221022306 130S1187E 20
2221022312 130S1174E 20
2221022318 130S1163E 20
2221022400 125S1150E 25
2221022406 126S1128E 25
2221022412 125S1111E 25
2221022418 125S1088E 25
2221022500 127S1069E 25
2221022506 131S1055E 25
2221022512 135S1043E 30
2221022518 139S1028E 30
2221022600 142S1004E 45
2221022606 145S 985E 50
2221022606 145S 985E 50
2221022612 148S 970E 60
2221022612 148S 970E 60
NNNN

>

2021-02-26 04:47


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 260300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250321ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 100.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 100.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 14.4S 97.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 14.9S 95.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.6S 93.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 16.2S 92.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.4S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.4S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.4S 91.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 99.7E.
26FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
919 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED
WITH FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 252336Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE, THE ABOVE ANIMATION, AND AMIDST A TIGHT GROUPING
OF AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY MULTIPLE
DVORAK AGENCY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND APRF. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM RESIDING EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), ENVELOPED IN A SMALL REGION OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION WEST OF THE LLCC AND OVERALL INTENSIFICATION
PEAKING AT 80 KNOTS NEAR TAU 48. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROCEED ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND THE STR TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH TAU 72. THEREAFTER, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A MORE
SOUTHERLY TURN AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS, THEN MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM TURNS TO
THE SOUTHEAST IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU
120. THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 90NM
THROUGH TAU 24, INCREASING TO 280 NM BY TAU 96. DUE TO THE HIGHER
SPREAD IN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT THE LATER TAUS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS LAID
SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE EUROPEAN MODELING GUIDANCE
OVER THE EXTREME LEFT OUTLIER OF NAVGEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z AND 270300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 250330).
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED REFERENCE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-26 02:48


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 260300
WARNING ATCG MIL 22S SIO 210226021100
2021022600 22S TWENTYTWO 001 01 260 23 SATL 040
T000 142S 1004E 045 R034 020 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 144S 0977E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 149S 0954E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 156S 0936E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 162S 0926E 080 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 174S 0910E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 184S 0906E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 194S 0914E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 100.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 100.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 14.4S 97.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 14.9S 95.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.6S 93.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 16.2S 92.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.4S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.4S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.4S 91.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 99.7E.
26FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
919 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 261500Z AND 270300Z.//
2221022306 130S1187E 20
2221022312 130S1174E 20
2221022318 130S1163E 20
2221022400 125S1150E 25
2221022406 126S1128E 25
2221022412 125S1111E 25
2221022418 125S1088E 25
2221022500 127S1069E 25
2221022506 131S1055E 25
2221022512 135S1043E 30
2221022518 139S1028E 30
2221022600 142S1004E 45
NNNN

>