Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for GUAMBE-21
in Mozambique

Global Telecommunication Service

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2021-02-22 05:58


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 220556
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/02/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 22/02/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 (EX-GUAMBE) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 35.9 S / 48.8 E
(THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 43 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 250
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 280 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/22 AT 18 UTC:
42.0 S / 62.0 E, MAX WIND = 0 , POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2021/02/23 AT 06 UTC:
50.0 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND = 0 , EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.=

>

2021-02-22 03:14


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 220300
WARNING ATCG MIL 21S SIO 210222030026
2021022200 21S GUAMBE 010 01 115 35 SATL 030
T000 340S 0449E 055 R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 384S 0541E 050 R050 080 NE QD 000 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 265 SE QD 230 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP 000HR EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 34.0S 44.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 35 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.0S 44.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 38.4S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 35.1S 47.2E.
22FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 35 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z
IS 21 FEET.
//
2121021200 229S 361E 25
2121021206 224S 353E 20
2121021212 221S 345E 20
2121021218 220S 347E 20
2121021300 221S 350E 20
2121021306 225S 351E 20
2121021312 229S 343E 20
2121021318 233S 338E 20
2121021400 233S 328E 20
2121021406 233S 323E 20
2121021412 231S 319E 20
2121021418 230S 322E 25
2121021500 228S 325E 25
2121021506 225S 332E 25
2121021512 223S 338E 25
2121021518 219S 340E 25
2121021600 216S 351E 25
2121021606 218S 358E 20
2121021612 217S 363E 20
2121021618 212S 366E 25
2121021700 211S 370E 25
2121021706 213S 373E 30
2121021712 215S 374E 40
2121021718 217S 374E 45
2121021800 221S 374E 45
2121021806 226S 376E 50
2121021806 226S 376E 50
2121021812 230S 375E 50
2121021818 236S 374E 60
2121021818 236S 374E 60
2121021900 241S 372E 65
2121021900 241S 372E 65
2121021900 241S 372E 65
2121021906 244S 368E 70
2121021906 244S 368E 70
2121021906 244S 368E 70
2121021912 249S 365E 85
2121021912 249S 365E 85
2121021912 249S 365E 85
2121021918 252S 364E 85
2121021918 252S 364E 85
2121021918 252S 364E 85
2121022000 257S 363E 75
2121022000 257S 363E 75
2121022000 257S 363E 75
2121022006 260S 363E 70
2121022006 260S 363E 70
2121022006 260S 363E 70
2121022012 267S 365E 65
2121022012 267S 365E 65
2121022012 267S 365E 65
2121022018 274S 367E 65
2121022018 274S 367E 65
2121022018 274S 367E 65
2121022100 287S 375E 65
2121022100 287S 375E 65
2121022100 287S 375E 65
2121022106 299S 384E 55
2121022106 299S 384E 55
2121022112 308S 393E 50
2121022118 325S 413E 55
2121022118 325S 413E 55
2121022200 340S 449E 55
2121022200 340S 449E 55
NNNN

>

2021-02-22 03:14


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 34.0S 44.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 35 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.0S 44.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 38.4S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 35.1S 47.2E.
22FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
35 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED
WITHIN A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED CENTER FEATURE EVIDENT IN 220000Z
INFRARED SATELLITE AND 220056Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY
IS CONSISTENT WITH TIME-LATE ASCAT DATA FROM AROUND 211800Z, WHICH
INDICATED AN INTENSITY AROUND OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 55 KNOTS. TC
21S IS RAPIDLY ACCELERATING INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AS IT
MERGERS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. FOLLOWING A RAPID TRANSITION,
21S NOW FULLY EXTRATROPICAL. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
RAPIDLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS A STORM FORCE LOW WITH BAROCLINIC
SUPPORT DURING THE 12-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 21 FEET.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-22 02:42


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 211500
WARNING ATCG MIL 21S SIO 210221125718
2021022112 21S GUAMBE 009 01 145 12 SATL 020
T000 309S 0392E 045 R034 065 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 337S 0440E 045 R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 200 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 373S 0520E 040 R034 130 NE QD 300 SE QD 260 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 30.9S 39.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.9S 39.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 33.7S 44.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 37 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 37.3S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 31.6S 40.4E.
21FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 462
NM SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 211200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z.//
2121021200 229S 361E 25
2121021206 224S 353E 20
2121021212 221S 345E 20
2121021218 220S 347E 20
2121021300 221S 350E 20
2121021306 225S 351E 20
2121021312 229S 343E 20
2121021318 233S 338E 20
2121021400 233S 328E 20
2121021406 233S 323E 20
2121021412 231S 319E 20
2121021418 230S 322E 25
2121021500 228S 325E 25
2121021506 225S 332E 25
2121021512 223S 338E 25
2121021518 219S 340E 25
2121021600 216S 351E 25
2121021606 218S 358E 20
2121021612 217S 363E 20
2121021618 212S 366E 25
2121021700 211S 370E 25
2121021706 213S 373E 30
2121021712 215S 374E 40
2121021718 217S 374E 45
2121021800 221S 374E 45
2121021806 226S 376E 50
2121021806 226S 376E 50
2121021812 230S 375E 50
2121021818 236S 374E 60
2121021818 236S 374E 60
2121021900 241S 372E 65
2121021900 241S 372E 65
2121021900 241S 372E 65
2121021906 244S 368E 70
2121021906 244S 368E 70
2121021906 244S 368E 70
2121021912 249S 365E 85
2121021912 249S 365E 85
2121021912 249S 365E 85
2121021918 252S 364E 85
2121021918 252S 364E 85
2121021918 252S 364E 85
2121022000 257S 363E 75
2121022000 257S 363E 75
2121022000 257S 363E 75
2121022006 260S 363E 70
2121022006 260S 363E 70
2121022006 260S 363E 70
2121022012 267S 365E 65
2121022012 267S 365E 65
2121022012 267S 365E 65
2121022018 274S 367E 65
2121022018 274S 367E 65
2121022018 274S 367E 65
2121022100 287S 375E 65
2121022100 287S 375E 65
2121022100 287S 375E 65
2121022106 299S 384E 55
2121022106 299S 384E 55
2121022112 309S 392E 45
NNNN

>

2021-02-22 02:41


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 30.9S 39.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.9S 39.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 33.7S 44.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 37 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 37.3S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 31.6S 40.4E.
21FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 462
NM SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY DECAY AS
EVIDENCED BY WARMING CENTRAL CLOUD TOPS AND UNRAVELING RAIN BANDS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE RAGGED BUT DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
FEATURE IN THE 211050Z ASMR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. ANALYSIS
INDICATES STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (20KTS+), AND COOLING SST (26C AND DROPPING). TC 21S WILL
CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE INTENSITY UP TO TAU 12;
AFTERWARD, DOWN TO 40KTS BY TAU 24. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AND TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-
FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD BY TAU 24.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-22 00:24


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 220022
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/02/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 22/02/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 (EX-GUAMBE) 981 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 34.1 S / 44.6 E
(THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 29 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM
IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/22 AT 12 UTC:
38.2 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 NM SE: 325 NM SW: 300 NM NW: 240 NM
34 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 260 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 140 NM
48 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 65 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/23 AT 00 UTC:
45.8 S / 69.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 NM SE: 560 NM SW: 525 NM NW: 380 NM
34 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 365 NM SW: 370 NM NW: 235 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-21 18:43


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 211842 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/02/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 21/02/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 (EX-GUAMBE) 981 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 32.3 S / 41.5 E
(THIRTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 25 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM
IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
80 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN AND
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/22 AT 06 UTC:
35.8 S / 48.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 NM SE: 365 NM SW: 265 NM NW: 225 NM
34 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 280 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 150 NM
48 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 60 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/22 AT 18 UTC:
42.0 S / 61.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 310 NM SE: 580 NM SW: 540 NM NW: 265 NM
34 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 370 NM SW: 385 NM NW: 150 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
CORRECTIVE MADE FOR THE NAME CHANGE.=

>

2021-02-21 18:36


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 211834
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/02/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 21/02/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 (GUAMBE) 981 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 32.3 S / 41.5 E
(THIRTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 25 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM
IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
80 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN AND
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/22 AT 06 UTC:
35.8 S / 48.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 NM SE: 365 NM SW: 265 NM NW: 225 NM
34 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 280 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 150 NM
48 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 60 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/22 AT 18 UTC:
42.0 S / 61.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 310 NM SE: 580 NM SW: 540 NM NW: 265 NM
34 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 370 NM SW: 385 NM NW: 150 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2021-02-21 13:03


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 211220
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/11/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 21/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 30.7 S / 39.0 E
(TRENTE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET TRENTE NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 981 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/02/2021 00 UTC: 33.1 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 360 SO: 335 NO: 415
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SO: 270 NO: 260
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75

24H: 22/02/2021 12 UTC: 36.6 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 675 SO: 970 NO: 470
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 360 SO: 650 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 120

36H: 23/02/2021 00 UTC: 38.6 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 445 SO: 980 NO: 425
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 175 SO: 630 NO: 185

48H: 23/02/2021 12 UTC: 39.9 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 150

60H: 24/02/2021 00 UTC: 41.5 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 120

72H: 24/02/2021 12 UTC: 43.6 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 120

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.5

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE DU SYSTEME APRA S
AVOIR MONTRE DES SIGNES DE FAIBLESSE SEMBLE VOULOIR MAINTENANT
S'ORGANISER EN BANDE INCURVA E, AVEC UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES
SITUA E AU SUD-EST DE L'ACTIVITA CONVECTIVE LA PLUS INTENSE.
L'ASCAT-C DE 0730Z A MONTRE L'EXISTANCE DE VENTS MOYENS D'AU MOINS
40KT DANS LE DEMI CERCLE OUEST, MAIS LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SONT
LOCALISA S DANS LE DEMI CERCLE EST SELON LES DONNEES SAROPS DE 0254Z
DE LA NOAA. L'ESTIMATION DES VENTS MOYENS RESTE A 50KT.

GUAMBE CONSERVE UN MOUVEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-EST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME. AVEC
L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES PAR LE SUD, GUAMBE VA A
TRE GUIDE PLUS FRANCHEMENT SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU
SUD-EST QUI NE DEVRAIT PAS EVOLUER ET PRESENTERA UNE ACCELERATION
BIEN MARQUEE AUJOURD'HUI ET DEMAIN. CETTE CONFIGURATION ABOUTIRA A
SON EVACUATION RAPIDE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES, PRIS DANS LE
SILLAGE DU TALWEG QUI CIRCULE PLUS AU SUD. LES MODELES DISPONIBLES
SONT EN ACCORD AVEC CE SCENARIO POUR LA DIRECTION GENERALE MAIS
PRESENTENT ENCORE QUELQUES DIFFERENCES EN TERMES DE TIMING SUR LA
VITESSE D'EVACUATION DE GUAMBE.

L'INTENSIFACTION DE GUAMBE SEMBLE POSSIBLE A COURS VOIRE TRA S COURTS
TERMES DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT QUI RESTE POUR LE MOMENT FAVORABLE AVEC
UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE, UN CISAILLEMENT RESTANT
ASSEZ FAIBLE ET UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT AU NORD DE 32AOS.
A PARTIR DE CE SOIR, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT SE RENFORCER A L'AVANT DU TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES ET CONDUIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME EN SOIRA E DE
DEMAIN. LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE TENDRA EGALEMENT A SE DISSIPER
FORTEMENT. TOUTEFOIS L'ACCELERATION DE GUAMBE DANS LE SENS DU
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT LE FAIRE RESISTER ET IL COMMENCERA ALORS A
PERDRE SES CARACTA RISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES A DES LATITUDES
ASSEZ SUD, A PARTIR DE MARDI PROCHAIN.=

>

2021-02-21 13:03


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 211220
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/11/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/21 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.7 S / 39.0 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/22 00 UTC: 33.1 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 360 SW: 335 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 260
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 150 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75

24H: 2021/02/22 12 UTC: 36.6 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 675 SW: 970 NW: 470
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 360 SW: 650 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 120

36H: 2021/02/23 00 UTC: 38.6 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 445 SW: 980 NW: 425
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 175 SW: 630 NW: 185

48H: 2021/02/23 12 UTC: 39.9 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 150

60H: 2021/02/24 00 UTC: 41.5 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 120

72H: 2021/02/24 12 UTC: 43.6 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 120

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.5

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AFTER SHOWING
SIGNS OF WEAKNESS NOW SEEMS TO BE ORGANIZING ITSELF INTO A CURVED
BAND, WITH A LOW LAYER CENTER LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE MOST INTENSE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE 0730Z ASCAT-C SHOWS THE EXISTENCE OF AVERAGE
WINDS OF AT LEAST 40KT IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, BUT THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE ACCORDING TO NOAA'S
SAROPS DATA OF 0254Z. AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATES REMAINS AT 50KT.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: GUAMBE MAINTAINS A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTH, GUAMBE WILL BE GUIDED MORE FRANKLY ON A SOUTH-EASTERN
TRAJECTORY THAT SHOULD NOT CHANGE AND WILL PRESENT A NOTICED
ACCELERATION TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL LEAD TO ITS
RAPID EVACUATION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE LATITUDES, CAUGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH THAT RUNS FURTHER SOUTH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE NOT VERY SCATTERED AROUND THIS SCENARIO AS FAR AS DIRECTION IS
CONCERNED, BUT STILL PRESENT SOME DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF EVACUATION
SPEED.

THE INTENSIFICATION OF GUAMBE SEEMS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERMS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ON
THE POLAR SIDE, A WEAK WIND SHEAR, AND STILL SOME OCEANIC POTENTIAL
ABOVE 32AOS. FROM TONIGHT, THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD
PROGRESSIVELY STRENGTHEN IN FRONT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND LEAD
TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM FROM TOMORROW EVENING. THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO TEND TO DISSIPATE STRONGLY. GUAMBE SHOULD RESIST
TO THE WIND SHEAR ALOFT, DUE TO ITS RAPID MOVEMENT IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE UPPER WIND SHEAR. IT WILL THEN START TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS.=

>

2021-02-21 12:05


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 211202
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/02/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 21/02/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (GUAMBE) 981 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.7 S / 39.0 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 210 NM OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 60
NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/22 AT 00 UTC:
33.1 S / 43.4 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 225 NM
34 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 140 NM
48 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 60 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/22 AT 12 UTC:
36.6 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 NM SE: 365 NM SW: 525 NM NW: 255 NM
34 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 350 NM NW: 120 NM
48 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 65 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2021-02-21 06:59


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 210634
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/11/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 21/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 29.7 S / 38.3 E
(VINGT NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SO: 205 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SO: 110 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/02/2021 18 UTC: 31.1 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 305 SO: 370 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 110

24H: 22/02/2021 06 UTC: 33.6 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 360 SO: 435 NO: 415
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SO: 315 NO: 280
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75

36H: 22/02/2021 18 UTC: 36.6 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 465
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 685 SO: 715 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 95 SO: 140 NO: 120

48H: 23/02/2021 06 UTC: 38.9 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 325 SO: 260 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 35

60H: 23/02/2021 18 UTC: 40.2 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 55

72H: 24/02/2021 06 UTC: 41.9 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 130 SO: 85 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5- CI=3.5

LA LOCALISATION DU CENTRE A ETE ESTIMEE AVEC UNE ASSEZ BONNE
CONFIANCE, GRACE A L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE GPM GMI DE 0216Z. AU COURS DES
6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE DU SYSTEME A EVOLUE PROGRESSIVEMENT
EN CDO, AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI SE SONT TEMPORAIREMENT REFROIDIS
PRES DU CENTRE.
L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DU CMRS EST CONFIRMA E PAR LES DERNIERES
ANALYSES OBJECTIVES DU SATCON ET DE L'ADT, CE QUI ABOUTIT A UNE
ESTIMATION DES VENTS MOYENS A 50 KT, SOIT TOUJOURS AU STADE DE FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE : GUAMBE CONSERVE UN
MOUVEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME. AVEC L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG
DES MOYENNES LATITUDES PAR LE SUD, GUAMBE VA A TRE GUIDE PLUS
FRANCHEMENT SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST QUI NE
DEVRAIT PAS EVOLUER ET PRESENTERA UNE ACCELERATION BIEN MARQUEE
AUJOURD'HUI ET DEMAIN. CETTE CONFIGURATION ABOUTIRA A SON EVACUATION
RAPIDE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES, PRIS DANS LE SILLAGE DU TALWEG
QUI CIRCULE PLUS AU SUD. LES MODELES DISPONIBLES RESTENT ASSEZ PEU
DISPERSES AUTOUR DE CE SCENARIO POUR CE QUI EST DE LA DIRECTION MAIS
PRESENTENT ENCORE QUELQUES DIFFERENCES EN TERME DE VITESSE
D'EVACUATION.

L'INTENSIFACTION DE GUAMBE SEMBLE POSSIBLE A COURS TERMES DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT QUI RESTE FAVORABLE AVEC UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE, UN CISAILLEMENT RESTANT ASSEZ FAIBLE, ET
ENCORE UN PEU DE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. A PARTIR DE CE SOIR, LE
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE
RENFORCER A L'AVANT DU TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES ET CONDUIRE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME EN SOIRA E DE DEMAIN. L'ACCELERATION DE
GUAMBE DANS LE SENS DU CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT TOUTEFOIS LE FAIRE
RESISTER ET IL COMMENCERA ALORS A PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES
PUREMENT TROPICALES A DES LATITUDES ASSEZ SUD, A PARTIR DE MARDI.=

>

2021-02-21 06:59


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 210634
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/11/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/21 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.7 S / 38.3 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SW: 205 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/21 18 UTC: 31.1 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 305 SW: 370 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 110

24H: 2021/02/22 06 UTC: 33.6 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 360 SW: 435 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SW: 315 NW: 280
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75

36H: 2021/02/22 18 UTC: 36.6 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 465
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 685 SW: 715 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 95 SW: 140 NW: 120

48H: 2021/02/23 06 UTC: 38.9 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 325 SW: 260 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 35

60H: 2021/02/23 18 UTC: 40.2 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 55

72H: 2021/02/24 06 UTC: 41.9 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5- CI=3.5

THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN ESTIMATED WITH A FAIRLY
GOOD CONFIDENCE, THANKS TO THE MICROWAVE GPM GMI IMAGE OF 0216Z. OVER
THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS GRADUALLY EVOLVED
INTO A CDO, WITH CLOUD TOPS TEMPORARILY COOLING DOWN NEAR THE CENTER.
THE CMRS SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST SATCON
AND ADT OBJECTIVE ANALYSES, RESULTING IN AN ESTIMATE OF MEAN WINDS AT
50 KT, STILL AT THE STAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: GUAMBE MAINTAINS A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTH, GUAMBE WILL BE GUIDED MORE FRANKLY ON A SOUTH-EASTERN
TRAJECTORY THAT SHOULD NOT CHANGE AND WILL PRESENT A NOTICED
ACCELERATION TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL LEAD TO ITS
RAPID EVACUATION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE LATITUDES, CAUGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH THAT RUNS FURTHER SOUTH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE NOT VERY SCATTERED AROUND THIS SCENARIO AS FAR AS DIRECTION IS
CONCERNED, BUT STILL PRESENT SOME DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF EVACUATION
SPEED.

THE INTENSIFICATION OF GUAMBE SEEMS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERMS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ON
THE POLAR SIDE, A WEAK WIND SHEAR, AND STILL SOME OCEANIC POTENTIAL.
FROM THIS EVENING, THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY
STRENGTHEN IN FRONT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND LEAD TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM FROM TOMORROW EVENING.
GUAMBE SHOULD RESIST TO THE WIND SHEAR ALOFT, DUE TO ITS RAPID
MOVEMENT IN THE DIRECTION OF THE UPPER WIND SHEAR. IT WILL THEN START
TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS.=

>

2021-02-21 06:20


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 210616
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/02/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 21/02/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (GUAMBE) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.7 S / 38.3 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 50
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/21 AT 18 UTC:
31.1 S / 40.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 190 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 160 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 115 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 60 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/22 AT 06 UTC:
33.6 S / 45.9 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 245 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 235 NM NW: 225 NM
34 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 150 NM
48 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 55 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2021-02-21 00:32


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 210029
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/11/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 21/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 28.0 S / 36.9 E
(VINGT HUIT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET TRENTE SIX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SO: 205 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SO: 110 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/02/2021 12 UTC: 30.0 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 100

24H: 22/02/2021 00 UTC: 32.5 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 325 SO: 380 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SO: 270 NO: 270
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75

36H: 22/02/2021 12 UTC: 35.8 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 305 SO: 720 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SO: 445 NO: 280
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 85

48H: 23/02/2021 00 UTC: 37.8 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 345 SO: 740 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SO: 435 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 95 SO: 140 NO: 120

60H: 23/02/2021 12 UTC: 39.2 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 155 SO: 230 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 150 SO: 175 NO: 165

72H: 24/02/2021 00 UTC: 40.7 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5- CI=3.5

L'ABSENCE DES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES EST VRAIMENT PREJUDICIABLE POUR LA
LOCALISATION DU CENTRE. LA DERNIERE PASSE SCATSAT DE 1730UTC PERMET
DE NOTER ENCORE DES VENT DE 50KT TRES LOCALEMENT DANS LE SECTEUR EST
DE GUAMBE. AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN BANDE
INCURVEE SE MAINTIENT EN PRESENTANT SUR LES DERNIERS INSTANTS
L'INTENSIFICATION ATTENDUE, AVEC UNE CONVECTION PRES DU CENTRE QUI SE
REFROIDIT PLUS NETTEMENT. VALIDEE PAR L'ADT, UNE ANALYSE EN T DE 3.5-
ET EN CI DE 3.5 LAISSE DONC POUR LE MOMENT UNE ESTIMATION DES VENTS A
50KT, TOUJOURS AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE : GUAMBE CONSERVE UN
MOUVEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME. AVEC L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG
DES MOYENNES LATITUDES PAR LE SUD, GUAMBE SE TROUVE PLACER SUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST QUI NE DEVRAIT PAS EVOLUER ET PRESENTERA
UNE ACCELERATION BIEN MARQUEE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE. CELA
SIGNERA SON EVACUATION VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES, PRIS DANS LE
SILLAGE DU TALWEG QUI CIRCULE PLUS AU SUD. LES MODELES DISPONIBLES
RESTENT RELATIVEMENT PEU DISPERSES AUTOUR DE CE SCENARIO POUR CE QUI
EST DE LA DIRECTION MAIS PRESENTENT ENCORE D'IMPORTANTES DIFFERENCES
EN TERME DE VITESSE D'EVACUATION.

L'INTENSIFACTION DE GUAMBE SEMBLE REPARTIR DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT QUI
RESTE FAVORABLE AVEC UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE SUD
NOTAMMENT ET UN CISAILLEMENT RESTANT DANS DES PROPORTIONS
RAISONNABLES. GRACE A UNE REPRISE DE SON DEPLACEMENT, GUAMBE SE
RETROUVE A NOUVEAU AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT ET CELA
JUSQU'AUX ENVIRONS DE 30S. A PARTIR DE CE SOIR, LE CISAILLEMENT DE
SECTEUR NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE RENFORCER A L'AVANT DU
TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES ET CONDUIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
SYSTEME A PARTIR DE DEMAIN. L'ACCELERATION DE GUAMBE DANS LE SENS DU
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT TOUTEFOIS LE FAIRE RESISTER ET IL COMMENCERA
ALORS A PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES A DES
LATITUDES ASSEZ SUD, A PARTIR DE MARDI.=

>

2021-02-21 00:32


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 210029
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/11/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/21 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.0 S / 36.9 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SW: 205 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/21 12 UTC: 30.0 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100

24H: 2021/02/22 00 UTC: 32.5 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 325 SW: 380 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 270 NW: 270
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75

36H: 2021/02/22 12 UTC: 35.8 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 305 SW: 720 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 445 NW: 280
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 85

48H: 2021/02/23 00 UTC: 37.8 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 345 SW: 740 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SW: 435 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 95 SW: 140 NW: 120

60H: 2021/02/23 12 UTC: 39.2 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 155 SW: 230 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 165

72H: 2021/02/24 00 UTC: 40.7 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5- CI=3.5

THE ABSENCE OF MICROWAVE DATA IS REALLY DETRIMENTAL TO THE LOCATION
OF THE CENTER. THE LAST SCATSAT SWATH OF 1730UTC ALLOWS TO NOTE WINDS
OF 50KT VERY LOCALLY IN THE EAST SECTOR OF GUAMBE. DURING THE LAST 6
HOURS, THE CURVED BAND CONFIGURATION IS MAINTAINED BY PRESENTING ON
THE LAST MOMENTS THE EXPECTED INTENSIFICATION, WITH A CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER WHICH COOLS DOWN MORE CLEARLY. VALIDATED BY THE ADT, AN
ANALYSIS IN T OF 3.5- AND CI OF 3.5 THUS LEAVES FOR THE MOMENT AN
ESTIMATE OF THE WINDS AT 50KT, STILL AT THE STAGE OF STRONG TROPICAL
STORM.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK : GUAMBE KEEPS A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST
MOTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTH, GUAMBE IS PLACED ON A SOUTH-EAST TRACK WHICH SHOULD NOT CHANGE
AND WILL SHOW A WELL MARKED ACCELERATION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL SIGNAL ITS EVACUATION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE LATITUDES, TAKEN
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH THAT RUNS FURTHER SOUTH. THE AVAILABLE
MODELS REMAIN RELATIVELY LITTLE DISPERSED AROUND THIS SCENARIO IN
TERMS OF DIRECTION BUT STILL PRESENT IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN TERMS
OF EVACUATION SPEED.

THE GUAMBE INTENSIFICATION SEEMS TO START AGAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT
THAT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH A STRONG DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE,
ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE, AND A SHEAR REMAINING IN REASONABLE
PROPORTIONS. THANKS TO A RESUMPTION OF ITS DISPLACEMENT, GUAMBE FINDS
ITSELF AGAIN WITH A SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND THIS UNTIL ABOUT
30S. FROM TONIGHT, THE NORTHWESTERN SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
IN FRONT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM FROM TOMORROW. THE ACCELERATION OF GUAMBE IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE SHEAR SHOULD HOWEVER MAKE IT RESIST AND IT WILL THEN START TO
LOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT QUITE SOUTHERN LATITUDES,
STARTING ON TUESDAY.=

>

2021-02-21 00:08


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 210006
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/02/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 21/02/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (GUAMBE) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.0 S / 36.9 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 110 NM OF THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 50
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/21 AT 12 UTC:
30.0 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 150 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 105 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 55 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/22 AT 00 UTC:
32.5 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 205 NM NW: 200 NM
34 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 145 NM
48 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 60 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2021-02-20 18:49


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 201844
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/11/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 20/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 27.2 S / 36.6 E
(VINGT SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET TRENTE SIX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 370 SO: 295 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/02/2021 06 UTC: 28.7 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 345 SO: 280 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 95

24H: 21/02/2021 18 UTC: 31.0 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 315 SO: 380 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SO: 260 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 22/02/2021 06 UTC: 33.9 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 425 SO: 785 NO: 425
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 305 SO: 470 NO: 325
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 165 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75

48H: 22/02/2021 18 UTC: 36.7 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 350 SO: 760 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SO: 445 NO: 250
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 130

60H: 23/02/2021 06 UTC: 38.2 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 280 SO: 345 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SO: 230 NO: 185

72H: 23/02/2021 18 UTC: 39.6 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 120 SO: 195 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

TOUJOURS PAS DE DONNEES MICRO-ONDES AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES
ET LA DERNIERE PASSE ASCAT PARTIELLE N'APPORTE QUE PEU D'INFORMATION.
L'UTILISATION DES DONNEES SATELLITES INFRA-ROUGE PERMETTENT DE NOTER
QUE LA CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE RESTE VALABLE AVEC DES SOMMETS
QUI SE REFROIDISSENT AU COURS DES DERNIERS INSTANTS. LA SUSPICION
D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OIEL COMBINE AVEC UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE QUI COMMENCAIT A ETRE LIMITATIF POURRAIENT EXPLIQUER
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT OBSERVE DE GUAMBE AU COURS DES DERNIERES
12-18HEURES. CET AFFAIBLISSMENT SEMBLE TERMINE AVEC LE MAINTIEN D'UNE
ANALYSE DE DVORAK A 3.5 LAISSANT TOUJOURS GUAMBE AU STADE DE FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE.

GUAMBE CONSERVE UN MOUVEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-SUD-EST
SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME. AVEC
L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES PAR LE SUD, GUAMBE SE
TROUVE PLACER SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE BIEN CERTAINE VERS LE SUD-EST ET
PRESENTERA UNE ACCELERATION BIEN MARQUEE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE
DIMANCHE. CELA SIGNERA SON EVACUATION VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES,
PRIS DANS LE SILLAGE DU TALWEG QUI CIRCULE PLUS AU SUD. LES MODELES
DISPONIBLES SONT RELATIVEMENT PEU DISPERSES AUTOUR DE CE SCENARIO
POUR CE QUI EST DE LA DIRECTION MAIS PRESENTENT ENCORE D'IMPORTANTES
DIFFERENCES EN TERME DE VITESSE D'EVACUATION.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT, EN TERME DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE : GUAMBE DEVRAIT
REPRENDRE UNE INTENSIFICATION A COURT TERME DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT QUI
RESTE FAVORABLE AVEC UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE SUD
NOTAMMENT ET UN CISAILLEMENT RESTANT DANS DES PROPORTIONS
RAISONNABLES. GRACE A UNE REPRISE DE SON DEPLACEMENT, GUAMBE SE
RETROUVE A NOUVEAU AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT ET CELA
JUSQU'AUX ENVIRONS DE 30S. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR, LE CISAILLEMENT
DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE RENFORCER A L'AVANT
DU TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES ET CONDUIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
SYSTEME. L'ACCELERATION DE GUAMBE DANS LE SENS DU CISAILLEMENT
DEVRAIT LE FAIRE RESISTER ET IL COMMENCERA ALORS A PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES A DES LATITUDES ASSEZ SUD, LUNDI
EN FIN DE JOURNEE OU LA NUIT SUIVANTE.

GUAMBE CONTINUANT DE S'ELOIGNER DES COTES MOZAMBICAINES, LES
CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES DU SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE SONT EN AMELIORATION.=

>

2021-02-20 18:49


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 201844
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/11/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/20 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.2 S / 36.6 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 370 SW: 295 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/21 06 UTC: 28.7 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 345 SW: 280 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95

24H: 2021/02/21 18 UTC: 31.0 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 315 SW: 380 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 260 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2021/02/22 06 UTC: 33.9 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 425 SW: 785 NW: 425
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 305 SW: 470 NW: 325
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75

48H: 2021/02/22 18 UTC: 36.7 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 350 SW: 760 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 445 NW: 250
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 130

60H: 2021/02/23 06 UTC: 38.2 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 280 SW: 345 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 230 NW: 185

72H: 2021/02/23 18 UTC: 39.6 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 120 SW: 195 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

STILL NO MICROWAVE DATA FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS AND THE LAST PARTIAL
ASCAT SWATH PROVIDES LITTLE INFORMATION. USING INFRARED SATELLITE
DATA, IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THE CURVED BAND CONFIGURATION IS STILL
VALID WITH TOPS COOLING DOWN IN THE LAST FEW MOMENTS. THE SUSPICION
OF A EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COMBINED WITH AN OCEANIC POTENTIAL
THAT WAS BEGINNING TO BE LIMITING COULD EXPLAIN THE OBSERVED
WEAKENING OF GUAMBE DURING THE LAST 12-18 HOURS. THIS WEAKENING SEEMS
TO BE OVER WITH THE MAINTAINING OF A DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 3.5 LEAVING
GUAMBE STILL IN THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.

GUAMBE RETAINS A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH, GUAMBE IS
PLACED ON A DEFINITE SOUTH-EAST TRACK AND WILL SHOW A MARKED
ACCELERATION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SIGNAL ITS
EVACUATION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE LATITUDES, TAKEN IN THE FOLLOW OF THE
TROUGH WHICH CIRCULATES MORE IN THE SOUTH. THE AVAILABLE MODELS ARE
RELATIVELY LITTLE DISPERSED AROUND THIS SCENARIO IN TERMS OF
DIRECTION BUT STILL PRESENT IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF
EVACUATION SPEED.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST: GUAMBE SHOULD RESUME AN
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT REMAINS
FAVORABLE WITH A STRONG DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE, ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTH SIDE, AND A SHEAR REMAINING IN REASONABLE PROPORTIONS. THANKS
TO A RESUMPTION OF ITS DISPLACEMENT, GUAMBE FINDS ITSELF AGAIN WITH A
SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND THIS UNTIL AROUND 30. FROM SUNDAY
EVENING, THE NORTHWESTERN SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN IN FRONT
OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.
THE ACCELERATION OF GUAMBE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR SHOULD MAKE
IT RESIST AND IT WILL THEN START TO LOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AT QUITE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, ON MONDAY LATE IN THE
DAY OR THE FOLLOWING NIGHT.

AS GUAMBE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MOZAMBICAN COAST, WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE ARE IMPROVING.=

>

2021-02-20 18:10


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 201807
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/02/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 20/02/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (GUAMBE) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.2 S / 36.6 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 110 NM OF THE CENTER AND EXTENDING UP TO 240
NM IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 35
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 195 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/21 AT 06 UTC:
28.7 S / 37.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 105 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 50 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/21 AT 18 UTC:
31.0 S / 40.2 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 205 NM NW: 170 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 120 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 55 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2021-02-20 13:02


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 201301
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/11/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 20/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.3 S / 36.3 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET TRENTE SIX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 370 SO: 295 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/02/2021 00 UTC: 27.7 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 360 SO: 260 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 85

24H: 21/02/2021 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 350 SO: 285 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 75

36H: 22/02/2021 00 UTC: 32.0 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 380 SO: 470 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SO: 325 NO: 280
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 155 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 75

48H: 22/02/2021 12 UTC: 35.2 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 350 SO: 555 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 350 NO: 280
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 165 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

60H: 23/02/2021 00 UTC: 37.3 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 360 SO: 425 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SO: 140 NO: 110

72H: 23/02/2021 12 UTC: 38.9 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 230 SO: 345 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 230 NO: 165

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/02/2021 12 UTC: 43.2 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 215 SO: 0 NO: 0


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=4.0

PEU APRES L'EMISSION DU RESEAU PRECEDENT, DES DONNEES DE VENTS SAR
DES SATELLITES RADARSAT-2 ET SENTINEL-1 DE 03Z, ONT MONTRE QUE LE
COEUR CENTRAL DE GUAMBE S'EST BEAUCOUP PLUS AFFAIBLI QU'INITIALEMENT
ESCOMPTE. L'EXISTENCE D'UN PROFIL AVEC DOUBLE MAXIMUM DE VENT DANS
CERTAINS SECTEURS, SUGGERE QUE C'EST BIEN UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU
MUR DE L'OEIL QUI S'EST PRODUIT.
LES DONNEES SAR METTENT EN EVIDENCE UNE DISTRIBUTION TRES ASYMETRIQUE
DES VENTS FORTS AVEC DES VENTS MAX A 50-60 KT SITUES DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE EST A ENVIRON 25 MN DU CENTRE. UN COEUR INTERNE RESIDUEL
SUBSISTE (RVM A 8 MN) AVEC DES VENTS MAX DE L'ORDRE DE 40-45 KT.
L'INTENSITE ESTIME A 06Z DONC ETE REVUE A LA BAISSE A 55 KT. DEPUIS
LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN BANDE INCURVEE NE S'EST PAS AMELIOREE,
L'INTENSITE FINALE EST DONC ABAISSEE A 50 KT.

GUAMBE A REPRIS UN MOUVEMENT PLUS FRANC EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD
VOIRE MEME SUD-SUD-EST SUR LES DERNIERS FIX (PEU PRECIS EN L'ABSENCE
PERSISTANTE D'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE FIABLE). SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME ET DE L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG
DES MOYENNES LATITUDES PAR LE SUD, GUAMBE DEVRAIT CONTINUER A
ORIENTER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, GUAMBE
DEVRAIT COMMENCER A ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST EN S'EVACUANT DANS LES
MOYENNES LATITUDES. LES MODELES DISPONIBLES SONT RELATIVEMENT PEU
DISPERSES AUTOUR DE CE SCENARIO MAIS PRESENTENT ENCORE D'IMPORTANTES
DIFFERENCES EN TIMING (INCERTITUDE MAXIMALE DANS LE SENS OUEST-EST DE
LA TRAJECTOIRE).

GUAMBE DEVRAIT REPRENDRE UNE INTENSIFICATION A COURT TERME DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT QUI RESTE FAVORABLE AVEC UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE COTE SUD NOTAMMENT ET UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR EST
RESTANT DANS DES PROPORTIONS RAISONNABLES. LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
RESTE PRESENT JUSQU'AU ENVIRON DE 30S. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR, LE
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE
RENFORCER A L'AVANT DU TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES ET CONDUIRE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. L'ACCELERATION DE GUAMBE DANS LE SENS
DU CISAILLEMENT ENTRETIENT UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LE TIMING DE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. GUAMBE DEVRAIT COMMENCER SA TRANSITION
EXTRA-TROPICALE LUNDI EN FIN DE JOURNEE OU LA NUIT SUIVANTE.

GUAMBE COMMENCE A S'ELOIGNER DES COTES MOZAMBICAINES. LES CONDITIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES DU SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE SONT EN AMELIORATION. LA HOULE
CYCLONIQUE ASSOCIEE A GUAMBE VA CONTINUER D'AFFECTER LES REGIONS
COTIERES DU SUD MOZAMBIQUE ET DU NORD-EST DE L'AFRIQUE DU SUD DEMAIN
DIMANCHE (HAUTEURS MOYENNES ENTRE 2M50 ET 3M50 EN FONCTION DES
SECTEURS) AVANT DE S'AMORTIR EN SOIREE.=

>

2021-02-20 13:02


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 201301
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/11/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.3 S / 36.3 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 370 SW: 295 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/21 00 UTC: 27.7 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 360 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 85

24H: 2021/02/21 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 350 SW: 285 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 75

36H: 2021/02/22 00 UTC: 32.0 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 380 SW: 470 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 325 NW: 280
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75

48H: 2021/02/22 12 UTC: 35.2 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 350 SW: 555 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 350 NW: 280
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

60H: 2021/02/23 00 UTC: 37.3 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 360 SW: 425 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 140 NW: 110

72H: 2021/02/23 12 UTC: 38.9 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 230 SW: 345 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 230 NW: 165

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/24 12 UTC: 43.2 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 215 SW: 0 NW: 0


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.0

SHORTLY AFTER THE EMISSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, SAR WINDS DATA
FROM THE SATELLITES RADARSAT-2 AND SENTINEL-1 AROUND 03Z, SHOWED THAT
THE CENTRAL CORE OF GUAMBE WEAKENED MUCH MORE THAN INITIALLY
EXPECTED. THE EXISTENCE OF A DOUBLE MAXIMUM WIND PROFILE IN SOME
SECTORS, GIVES SOME CREDIT TO THE HYPOTHESIS OF THE OCCURRENCE OF AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.
THE SAR DATA SHOW A VERY ASYMMETRICAL DISTRIBUTION OF STRONG WINDS
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS AT 50-60 KT LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
ABOUT 25 NM FROM THE CENTER. A RESIDUAL INTERNAL CORE REMAINS (RVM AT
8 NM) WITH MAX WINDS OF ABOUT 40-45 KT. THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY AT
06Z HAS THEREFORE BEEN REVISED DOWNWARDS TO 55 KT. SINCE THAT TIME,
THE CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS NOT IMPROVED AND THE FINAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 50 KT.

GUAMBE IS NOW TRACKING SOUTHWARD AT A QUICKER PACE. LATEST FIX (ONLY
FAIR CONFIDENCE AS MW DATA ARE MISSING) EVEN SUGGEST THE BEGINNING OF
A SOUTH-EASTWARDS TREND. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE EAST AND A MID-LATITUDES TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, GUAMBE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTH-EASTWARD. FROM SUNDAY, GUAMBE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
SOUTH-EASTWARD AS IT EVACUATES TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES. THE
AVAILABLE MODELS SHOW LITTLE SPREAD AROUND THIS SCENARIO BUT STILL
PRESENT IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING (MAXIMUM UNCERTAINTY IN THE
WEST-EAST DIRECTION OF THE EXPECTED TRACK).

GUAMBE SHOULD RESUME AN INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH A STRONG POLEWARD UPPER
LEVELS DIVERGENCE IN PARTICULAR AND A SHEAR IN THE EASTERN SECTOR
REMAINING IN REASONABLE PROPORTIONS. THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL REMAINS
PRESENT UNTIL ABOUT 30S.
FROM SUNDAY EVENING, THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDES TROUGH AND LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. THE ACCELERATION OF GUAMBE IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE UPPER
WIND PRODUCES A MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE WEAKENING.
GUAMBE SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION ON LATE MONDAY OR
THE FOLLOWING NIGHT.

GUAMBE IS NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE MOZAMBICAN COAST. THE
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE ARE IMPROVING.. THE
CYCLONIC SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH GUAMBE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
COASTAL REGIONS OF SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AFRICA
ON SUNDAY (AVERAGE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2M50 AND 3M50 DEPENDING ON THE
SECTOR) BEFORE EASING OFF ON SUNDAY EVENING.=

>

2021-02-20 12:24


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 201221
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/02/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 20/02/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (GUAMBE) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.3 S / 36.3 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM OF THE CENTER AND EXTENDING UP TO 220
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 35
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 195 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/21 AT 00 UTC:
27.7 S / 36.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 190 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/21 AT 12 UTC:
29.5 S / 38.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 55 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
THE SYSTEM WAS RE-ASSESSED WITH 55 KT WINDS AT 06 UTC (SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM)=

>

2021-02-20 07:02


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 200640
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/11/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 20/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.8 S / 36.1 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES HUIT SUD ET TRENTE SIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 315 SO: 295 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SO: 65 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 40 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/02/2021 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 325 SO: 240 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SO: 175 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 65

24H: 21/02/2021 06 UTC: 28.7 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 350 SO: 270 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 195 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 65

36H: 21/02/2021 18 UTC: 31.0 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 325 SO: 400 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SO: 260 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 75

48H: 22/02/2021 06 UTC: 33.7 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 405 SO: 545 NO: 435
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SO: 350 NO: 295
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75

60H: 22/02/2021 18 UTC: 36.5 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 325 SO: 490 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SO: 305 NO: 250
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 75

72H: 23/02/2021 06 UTC: 38.3 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 260 SO: 415 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/02/2021 06 UTC: 40.7 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 260 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 205 SO: 140 NO: 100


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0+ CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE GUAMBE
A EVOLUE EN UNE CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE A 1.2 / 1.3 TOUR
D'ENROULEMENT. EN L'ABSENCE D'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES, IL EST POUR
L'INSTANT IMPOSSIBLE DE VALIDER L'HYPOTHESE PRIVILEGIEE D'UN CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL POUR EXPLIQUER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
CONSTATE DEPUIS LE DEBUT DE NUIT DERNIERE. D'AUTRE PART L'IMAGERIE
VAPEUR D'EAU SUGERRE QU'UNE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR EST SEMBLE EXISTER.
L'INTENSITE FINALE EST ESTIMEE A 65 KT EN CONSIDERANT UNE INERTIE
COURTE DU CHAMP DE VENT (COEUR CENTRAL DE TAILLE REDUITE).

GUAMBE A REPRIS UN MOUVEMENT PLUS FRANC EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD.
CE WEEK-END, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE A L'EST DU
SYSTEME ET DE L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES PAR LE
SUD, GUAMBE DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT TOURNER VERS LE SUD-EST. AINSI,
LE CYCLONE VA RESTER A L'ECART DES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE. A PARTIR DE
DIMANCHE, GUAMBE DEVRAIT COMMENCER A ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST EN
S'EVACUANT DANS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES. LES MODELES DISPONIBLES SONT
RELATIVEMENT PEU DISPERSES AUTOUR DE CE SCENARIO.

GUAMBE DEVRAIT REPRENDRE UNE INTENSIFICATION A COURT TERME DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT QUI RESTE FAVORABLE AVEC UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE NOTAMMENT
ET UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR EST RESTANT DANS DES PROPORTIONS
RAISONNABLES. LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE RESTE PRESENT JUSQU'AU ENVIRON
DE 30S. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE RENFORCER A L'AVANT DU TALWEG
DES MOYENNES LATITUDES ET CONDUIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME.
L'ACCELERATION DE GUAMBE DANS LE SENS DU CISAILLEMENT ENTRETIENT UNE
INCERTITUDE SUR LE TIMING DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE UNE
EVOLUTION EN POST-TROPICAL EST ENVISAGEE, ELLE SERA FONCTION DU DEGRE
D'INTERACTION AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL.

GUAMBE COMMENCE A S'ELOIGNER DES COTES MOZAMBICAINES. LES CONDITIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES DU SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE VONT RESTER DEGRADEES
AUJOURD'HUI ENTRE INHAMBANE AU NORD ET XAI-XAI AU SUD AVANT DE
COMMENCER A S'AMELIORER EN FIN DE JOURNEE. DES PLUIES POUVANT ENCORE
ATTEINDRE 50 MM ET LOCALEMENT LES 100 MM DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H SONT
POSSIBLES SUR CES SECTEURS. DES VENTS FORTS PEUVENT ENCORE APPROCHER
LES 100 KM/H EN RAFALES SUR LA COTE CE MATIN AVANT DE S'ATTENUER CET
APRES-MIDI. LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE ASSOCIEE A GUAMBE VA CONTINUER
D'AFFECTER LES REGIONS COTIERES DU SUD MOZAMBIQUE ET DU NORD-EST DE
L'AFRIQUE DU SUD CE WEEK-END (HAUTEURS MOYENNES ENTRE 2M50 ET 4M EN
FONCTION DES SECTEURS) AVANT DE S'AMORTIR DIMANCHE SOIR.=

>

2021-02-20 07:02


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 200640
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/11/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/20 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.8 S / 36.1 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 315 SW: 295 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/20 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 325 SW: 240 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65

24H: 2021/02/21 06 UTC: 28.7 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 350 SW: 270 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 65

36H: 2021/02/21 18 UTC: 31.0 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 325 SW: 400 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 260 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 75

48H: 2021/02/22 06 UTC: 33.7 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 405 SW: 545 NW: 435
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SW: 350 NW: 295
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75

60H: 2021/02/22 18 UTC: 36.5 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 325 SW: 490 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SW: 305 NW: 250
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 75

72H: 2021/02/23 06 UTC: 38.3 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 260 SW: 415 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/24 06 UTC: 40.7 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 260 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 100


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0+ CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, GUAMBE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS EVOLVED INTO A
CURVED BAND CONFIGURATION WITH 1.2 / 1.3 WRAPPING ON THE LOG10
SPIRAL. IN THE ABSENCE OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY, IT IS FOR THE MOMENT
IMPOSSIBLE TO VALIDATE THE PRIVILEGED HYPOTHESIS OF AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE TO EXPLAIN THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND WATER VAPOR IMAGING SUGGESTS THAT AN
EASTERLY CONSTRAINT MAY EXIST. THE FINAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 65
KT CONSIDERING A SHORT INERTIA OF THE WIND FIELD (SMALL CENTRAL
CORE).

GUAMBE IS NOW TRACKING SOUTHWARD AT A QUICKER PACE. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE EAST AND A
MID-LATITUDES TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, GUAMBE SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH-EASTWARD OVER THE WEEK-END. THUS, THE CYCLONE
WILL STAY AWAY FROM THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS. FROM SUNDAY, GUAMBE IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-EASTWARD AS IT EVACUATES TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES. THE AVAILABLE MODELS SHOW RELATIVELY LOW DISPERSION
AROUND THIS SCENARIO.

GUAMBE SHOULD RESUME AN INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH A STRONG DIVERGENCE IN
PARTICULAR AND A SHEAR IN THE EASTERN SECTOR REMAINING IN REASONABLE
PROPORTIONS. THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL REMAINS PRESENT UNTIL ABOUT 30S.
FROM SUNDAY EVENING, THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDES TROUGH AND LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. THE ACCELERATION OF GUAMBE IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE UPPER
WIND PRODUCES A MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE WEAKENING.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET.

GUAMBE IS STARTING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MOZAMBICAN COAST. THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE WILL REMAIN AFFECTED TODAY
BETWEEN INHAMBANE IN THE NORTH AND XAI-XAI IN THE SOUTH BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE AT LATER TODAY. RAINFALL OF UP TO 50 MM AND
LOCALLY 100 MM IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
STRONG WINDS CAN STILL APPROACH 100 KM/H GUSTING ON THE COAST THIS
MORNING BEFORE EASING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONIC SWELL
ASSOCIATED WITH GUAMBE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL REGIONS OF
SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AFRICA THIS WEEKEND
(AVERAGE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2M50 AND 4M DEPENDING ON THE SECTOR) BEFORE
EASING OFF ON SUNDAY EVENING.=

>

2021-02-20 06:26


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 200625
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/02/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 20/02/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (GUAMBE) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.8 S / 36.1 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM OF THE CENTER AND EXTENDING UP TO 200
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/20 AT 18 UTC:
27.0 S / 36.5 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/21 AT 06 UTC:
28.7 S / 37.4 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 200 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 100 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-20 00:50


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 200025
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/11/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 20/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.5 S / 36.1 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES CINQ SUD ET TRENTE SIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SO: 295 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 65 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/02/2021 12 UTC: 26.4 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 360 SO: 230 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SO: 165 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SO: 100 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 75

24H: 21/02/2021 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 380 SO: 270 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 120 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 65

36H: 21/02/2021 12 UTC: 30.1 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 325 SO: 280 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75

48H: 22/02/2021 00 UTC: 32.5 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 370 SO: 510 NO: 415
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SO: 335 NO: 295
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 75

60H: 22/02/2021 12 UTC: 35.8 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 370 SO: 705 NO: 425
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SO: 455 NO: 295
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 175 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 85

72H: 23/02/2021 00 UTC: 37.5 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 335 SO: 335 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SO: 250 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/02/2021 00 UTC: 40.8 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 140 SO: 240 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 65 SO: 215 NO: 55


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5-;CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'OEIL DE GUAMBE A TEMPORAIREMENT
DISPARU AVANT DE REAPPARAITRE GRADUELLEMENT SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES
SATELLITES. EN L'ABSENCE DE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT ET AVEC LA REPRISE
D'UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS FRANC VERS LE SUD, LES CAUSES DE CETTE
DEGRADATION DE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE NE SEMBLENT PAS VENIR DE
L'ENVIRONNEMENT. CEPENDANT, SANS IMAGES MICRO-ONDES RECENTES, IL EST
IMPOSSIBLE DE VALIDER L'HYPOTHESE D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR
DE L'OEIL. VU LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME, L'INTENSITE ESTIMEE A ETE
BAISSE DE 5KT SANS ATTENDRE 12H.

GUAMBE A REPRIS UN MOUVEMENT PLUS FRANC EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD.
CE WEEK-END, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE A L'EST DU
SYSTEME ET DE L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES PAR LE
SUD, GUAMBE DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT TOURNER VERS LE SUD-EST. AINSI,
LE CYCLONE VA RESTER A L'ECART DES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE. A PARTIR DE
DIMANCHE, GUAMBE DEVRAIT COMMENCER A ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST EN
S'EVACUANT DANS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES. LES MODELES DISPONIBLES SONT
RELATIVEMENT PEU DISPERSES AUTOUR DE CE SCENARIO.

GUAMBE POURRAIT ENCORE S'INTENSIFIER UN PEU A COURT TERME DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT QUI RESTE FAVORABLE AVEC UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE
NOTAMMENT. CE WEEK-END, LA SURVENUE PROBABLE D'UN CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL POURRAIT LIMITER SON INTENSITE.
CEPENDANT, ETANT DONNEE LA FAIBLE PREVISIBILITE DE CE PHENOMENE, LA
PRESENTE PREVISION N'EN TIENT PAS PLEINEMENT COMPTE.
A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST
DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE RENFORCER A L'AVANT DU TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES ET CONDUIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. L'ACCELERATION
DE GUAMBE DANS LE SENS DU CISAILLEMENT ENTRETIENT UNE INCERTITUDE SUR
LE TIMING DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE UNE EVOLUTION EN
POST-TROPICAL EST ENVISAGEE, ELLE SERA FONCTION DU DEGRE
D'INTERACTION AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL.

GUAMBE PASSE ACTUELLEMENT A ENVIRON 150KM AU LARGE DES COTES
MOZAMBICAINES. LES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES DU SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE
VONT RESTER DEGRADEES ENTRE INHAMBANE AU NORD ET XAI-XAI AU SUD CE
WEEK-END. DE FORTES PLUIES POUVANT ATTEINDRE ET LOCALEMENT DEPASSER
LES 150 MM EN 24H SONT POSSIBLES SUR CES SECTEURS. DES VENTS FORTS
POUVANT ATTEINDRE 100 KM/H EN RAFALES SUR LA COTE SONT POSSIBLES.=

>

2021-02-20 00:50


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 200025
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/11/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/20 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 36.1 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 295 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/20 12 UTC: 26.4 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 360 SW: 230 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 100 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 75

24H: 2021/02/21 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 380 SW: 270 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 65

36H: 2021/02/21 12 UTC: 30.1 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 325 SW: 280 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75

48H: 2021/02/22 00 UTC: 32.5 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 370 SW: 510 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 335 NW: 295
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75

60H: 2021/02/22 12 UTC: 35.8 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 370 SW: 705 NW: 425
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SW: 455 NW: 295
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 85

72H: 2021/02/23 00 UTC: 37.5 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 335 SW: 335 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 250 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/24 00 UTC: 40.8 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 140 SW: 240 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 65 SW: 215 NW: 55


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5-;CI=5.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, GUAMBE'S EYE TEMPORARILY DISAPPEARED BEFORE
GRADUALLY COMING BACK ON THE LAST SAT IMAGES. WITH NO WIND SHEAR AND
A CLEARER SOUTHWARD MOTION, THE CAUSES OF THIS DOWNGRADE OF THE CLOUD
PATTERN DO NOT SEEM TO STEM FROM ENVIRONMENTAL FORCINGS. HOWEVER,
WITH NO RECENT MW IMAGES, IT IS CURRENTLY IMPOSSIBLE TO VALIDATE THE
HYPOTHESIS OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF
THE SYSTEM, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED BY 5KT WITHOUT WAITING
FOR 12HRS.

GUAMBE IS NOW TRACKING SOUTHWARD AT A QUICKER PACE. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE EAST AND A
MID-LATITUDES TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, GUAMBE SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH-EASTWARD OVER THE WEEK-END. THUS, THE CYCLONE
WILL STAY AWAY FROM THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS. FROM SUNDAY, GUAMBE IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-EASTWARD AS IT EVACUATES TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES. THE AVAILABLE MODELS SHOW RELATIVELY LOW DISPERSION
AROUND THIS SCENARIO.

GUAMBE COULD STILL INTENSIFY IN THE SHORT TERM WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
THAT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH AN ESPECIALLY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE.
THIS WEEK-END, A LIKELY OCCURRENCE OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD
LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF GUAMBE. GIVEN THE LOW PREVISIBILITY OF THIS
PHENOMENON, THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT ENTIRELY TAKES IT
INTO ACCOUNT.
FROM SUNDAY EVENING, THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDES TROUGH AND LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. THE ACCELERATION OF GUAMBE IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE UPPER
WIND PRODUCES A MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE WEAKENING.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET.

GUAMBE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING 150 KM AWAY FROM THE MOZAMBICAN COAST.
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS
THIS WEEK-END BETWEEN INHAMBANE TO THE NORTH AND XAI-XAI TO THE
SOUTH. HEAVY RAINS THAT CAN REACH AND LOCALLY EXCEED 150 MM IN 24
HOURS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. STRONG WINDS GUSTING UP TO 100
KM/H ON THE COAST ARE LIKELY.=

>

2021-02-20 00:16


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 200015
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/02/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 20/02/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (GUAMBE) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 36.1 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM OF THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 15 NM IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/20 AT 12 UTC:
26.4 S / 36.2 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/21 AT 00 UTC:
27.8 S / 36.7 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-19 19:01


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 191820
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/11/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 19/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.9 S / 36.3 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET TRENTE SIX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 953 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 370 SO: 295 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 185 SO: 65 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/02/2021 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 405 SO: 285 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SO: 185 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 65

24H: 20/02/2021 18 UTC: 27.1 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 315 SO: 250 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 165 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 65

36H: 21/02/2021 06 UTC: 28.5 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 370 SO: 280 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SO: 195 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65

48H: 21/02/2021 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 335 SO: 390 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SO: 250 NO: 260
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65

60H: 22/02/2021 06 UTC: 33.1 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 435 SO: 610 NO: 480
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 325 SO: 370 NO: 305
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85

72H: 22/02/2021 18 UTC: 34.3 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 455 SO: 480 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SO: 325 NO: 240
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/02/2021 18 UTC: 37.4 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 240 SO: 140 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

120H: 24/02/2021 18 UTC: 45.3 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 565 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 325 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 260

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, GUAMBE A NETTEMENT RALENTI ET S'EST
PEUT-ETRE MEME ARRETE SELON LES IMAGES SAT DE LA DERNIERE HEURE. LA
CONFIGURATION EN OEIL A GLOBALEMENT PEU EVOLUE AVANT DE LEGEREMENT SE
DEGRADER. CETTE PERTE DE DEFINITION PEUT S'EXPLIQUER PAR LE
RALENTISSEMENT DU SYSTEME SUR DES EAUX AU POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE PLUS
BAS QU'ALENTOUR. CEPENDANT, UNE AUTRE HYPOTHESE POSSIBLE EST CELLE
D'UN DEBUT DE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL. EN EFFET,
L'IMAGE 89GHZ AMSR2 DE 1101Z MONTRAIT UNE BANDE SPIRALEE S'ENROULANT
ENCORE ASSEZ LACHEMENT AUTOUR D'UN PETIT COEUR COMPACT. IL FAUDRA
ATTENDRE LES PROCHAINES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES POUR CONFIRMER CETTE
HYPOTHESE. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST BASEE SUR UNE MOYENNE DES
ESTIMATIONS DVORAK (CORRIGEES POUR LA PETITE TAILLE DE GUAMBE) AU
COURS DES 3 DERNIERES HEURES.

A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE A
L'EST DU SYSTEME ET DE L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES
PAR LE SUD, GUAMBE DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT TOURNER VERS LE SUD-EST.
AINSI, LE CYCLONE DEVRAIT RESTER A L'ECART DES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE. A
PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, GUAMBE DEVRAIT COMMENCER A ACCELERER VERS LE
SUD-EST EN S'EVACUANT DANS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES, SELON UN TIMING
ENCORE RELATIVEMENT INCERTAIN. LES MODELES DISPONIBLES SONT
RELATIVEMENT PEU DISPERSES AUTOUR DE CE SCENARIO.

GUAMBE POURRAIT ENCORE S'INTENSIFIER UN PEU A COURT TERME DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT QUI RESTE FAVORABLE AVEC UNE FORTE DIVERGENCE
NOTAMMENT. CE WEEK-END, LA SURVENUE PROBABLE D'UN CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL POURRAIT LIMITER SON INTENSITE.
CEPENDANT, ETANT DONNEE LA FAIBLE PREVISIBILITE DE CE PHENOMENE, LA
PRESENTE PREVISION N'EN TIENT PAS PLEINEMENT COMPTE.
A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE SOIR, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST
DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE RENFORCER A L'AVANT DU TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES ET CONDUIRE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. L'ACCELERATION
DE GUAMBE DANS LE SENS DU CISAILLEMENT ENTRETIENT UNE INCERTITUDE
RELATIVEMENT HABITUELLE SUR LE TIMING DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE UNE EVOLUTION EN POST-TROPICAL EST ENVISAGEE, ELLE SERA
FONCTION DU DEGRE D'INTERACTION AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL.

MEME SI LA PRESENTE PREVISION FAIT PASSER GUAMBE A UN PEU PLUS DE
100KM AU LARGE DES COTES MOZAMBICAINES, LES CONDITIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES DU SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE VONT RESTER DEGRADEES ENTRE
INHAMBANE AU NORD ET XAI-XAI AU SUD CE WEEK-END. DE FORTES PLUIES
POUVANT ATTEINDRE ET LOCALEMENT DEPASSER LES 150 MM EN 24H SONT
POSSIBLES SUR CES SECTEURS. DES VENTS FORTS POUVANT ATTEINDRE 100
KM/H EN RAFALES SUR LA COTE SONT POSSIBLES.=

>

2021-02-19 19:01


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 191820
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/11/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/19 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.9 S / 36.3 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 953 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 370 SW: 295 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 185 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/20 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 405 SW: 285 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 65

24H: 2021/02/20 18 UTC: 27.1 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 315 SW: 250 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 65

36H: 2021/02/21 06 UTC: 28.5 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

48H: 2021/02/21 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 335 SW: 390 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 260
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

60H: 2021/02/22 06 UTC: 33.1 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 435 SW: 610 NW: 480
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 325 SW: 370 NW: 305
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85

72H: 2021/02/22 18 UTC: 34.3 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 455 SW: 480 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 325 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/23 18 UTC: 37.4 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 240 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

120H: 2021/02/24 18 UTC: 45.3 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 565 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 325 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 260

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, GUAMBE HAS CLEARLY SLOWED DOWN AND MAYBE EVEN
STOPPED ACCORDING TO THE LAST SAT IMAGES. THE EYE PATTERN DID NOT
EVOLVE MUCH BEFORE SLIGHTLY DEGRADING ON THE LAST IMAGES. THIS
DOWNGRADE OF THE CLOUD PATTERN MAY BE EXPLAINED BY THE SLOWER MOTION
OF GUAMBE OVER WATERS WITH MORE LIMITED HEAT POTENTIAL THAN THE
SURROUNDINGS. HOWEVER, AN OTHER HYPOTHESIS IS THE BEGINNING OF AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE 1101Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWED A
CURVED CONVECTION BAND LOOSELY SPIRALING AROUND A VERY TIGHT INNER
CORE. THE NEXT MW IMAGES WILL PROVIDE INFORMATION ON THE VALIDITY OF
THIS POSSIBILITY. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON A 3-HRS MEAN OF
THE LAST DVORAK ESTIMATES (CORRECTED FOR GUAMBE'S SMALL SIZE).

FROM TOMORROW, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IN THE EAST AND A MID-LATITUDES TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST, GUAMBE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH-EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEK-END. THUS, THE CYCLONE WILL STAY AWAY FROM THE MOZAMBICAN
COASTS. FROM SUNDAY, GUAMBE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-EASTWARD
AS IT EVACUATES TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES, FOLLOWING A RATHER
UNCERTAIN TIMING. THE AVAILABLE MODELS SHOW RELATIVELY LOW DISPERSION
AROUND THIS SCENARIO.

GUAMBE COULD STILL INTENSIFY IN THE SHORT TERM WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
THAT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH AN ESPECIALLY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE.
THIS WEEK-END, A LIKELY OCCURRENCE OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD
LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF GUAMBE. GIVEN THE LOW PREVISIBILITY OF SUCH A
PHENOMENON, THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST DO NOT ENTIRELY TAKES IT
INTO ACCOUNT.
FROM SUNDAY EVENING, THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDES TROUGH AND LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. THE ACCELERATION OF GUAMBE IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE UPPER
WIND PRODUCES A RATHER USUAL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE
WEAKENING. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A POST-TROPICAL
TRANSITION IS LIKELY DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET.

EVEN IF THE PRESENT FORECAST TAKES GUAMBE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 100KM
OFF THE MOZAMBICAN COAST, THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN
MOZAMBIQUE WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THIS WEEK-END BETWEEN INHAMBANE TO
THE NORTH AND XAI-XAI TO THE SOUTH. HEAVY RAINS THAT CAN REACH AND
LOCALLY EXCEED 150 MM IN 24 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. STRONG
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 100 KM/H ON THE COAST ARE LIKELY.=

>

2021-02-19 18:11


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 191810
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/02/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 19/02/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (GUAMBE) 953 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.9 S / 36.3 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM OF THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 15 NM IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/20 AT 06 UTC:
25.7 S / 36.0 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 220 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/20 AT 18 UTC:
27.1 S / 36.5 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-19 13:18


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 191303
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/11/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 19/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.9 S / 36.5 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET TRENTE SIX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 953 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 370 SO: 295 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 185 SO: 65 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/02/2021 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 390 SO: 285 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SO: 195 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 65

24H: 20/02/2021 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 360 SO: 250 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 175 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 75

36H: 21/02/2021 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 370 SO: 260 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SO: 185 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 75

48H: 21/02/2021 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 350 SO: 325 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 75

60H: 22/02/2021 00 UTC: 32.3 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 435 SO: 405 NO: 405
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 315 SO: 295 NO: 305
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 85

72H: 22/02/2021 12 UTC: 35.3 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 685 SO: 945 NO: 425
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 500 SO: 535 NO: 360
48 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/02/2021 12 UTC: 39.6 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 455 SO: 345 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 350 SO: 260 NO: 140


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE GUAMBE
S'EST ENCORE AMELIOREE, AVEC UN OEIL BIEN DEFINI ET DE TRES PETITE
TAILLE, ENTOURE D'UNE CONVECTION DE PLUS EN PLUS SYMETRIQUE AUTOUR DU
CENTRE. LES PANACHES DE CIRRUS VISIBLES SUR L'IMAGERIE SATELLITAIRE
TEMOIGNENT DE LA BONNE DIVERGENCE DE HAUTE TROPOSPHERE. EN ANALYSE
DVORAK, EN TENANT COMPTE DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU VORTEX QUI INDUIT UN
BIAIS NEGATIF AUX ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES, ON PEUT ESTIMER LE DT MOYEN
AUTOUR DE 5.5- SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES. L'INTENSITE EST DONC ESTIMEE
A 85 KT A 12UTC.

GUAMBE POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST CE VENDREDI SOIR,
SOUS LES INFLUENCES COMBINEES D'UNE DORSALE SITUEE A L'EST DU SYSTEME
ET D'UN AXE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS CONTOURNANT LE SUD DU SYSTEME,
FAISANT JONCTION AVEC LA DORSALE SITUEE SUR L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE.
D'APRES LA PLUPART DES GUIDANCES, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT ENSUITE
PRENDRE UNE COMPOSANTE NORD A NORD-OUEST A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME ET DE
L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES PAR LE SUD. CELA
MAINTIENDRA GUAMBE A L'ECART DES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE. EN COURS DE
WEEKEND, LA PRESENCE DU PROFOND TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD
DEVRAIT FAVORISER UNE ACCELERATION DU MOUVEMENT DE GUAMBE VERS LE
SUD-EST MAIS AVEC UNE CHRONOLOGIE QUI RESTE INCERTAINE A PARTIR DE
DIMANCHE.

L'ENVIRONNEMENT OCEANIQUE ET ATMOSPHERIQUE FAVORABLE AINSI QUE LA
PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME FAVORISENT UNE INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE DE
GUAMBE A TRES COURT TERME, POUR PROBABLEMENT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE D'ICI LA NUIT PROCHAINE. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI,
MALGRE DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTANT FAVORABLES, LA
SURVENUE D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL EST PROBABLE, CE
QUI POURRAIT LIMITER SON INTENSITE. CEPENDANT, ETANT DONNEE LA FAIBLE
PREVISIBILITE DE L'INTENSITE D'UN CYCLONE DANS CE TYPE DE CONTEXTE,
LA PRESENTE PREVISION N'EN TIENT PAS PLEINEMENT COMPTE.
EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, EN MARGE DU TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES, LE
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE
RENFORCER, CONDUISANT A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. LA VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME DE PLUS EN PLUS RAPIDE DANS LE SENS DU
CISAILLEMENT ENTRETIENT UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LE TIMING DE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE UNE EVOLUTION EN POST-TROPICAL
EST POSSIBLE EN FONCTION DU DEGRE D'INTERACTION AVEC LE JET
SUBTROPICAL.

MEME SI LA PRESENTE PREVISION FAIT PASSER GUAMBE A UN PEU PLUS DE
100KM AU LARGE DES COTES MOZAMBICAINES, GUAMBE RISQUE D'AFFECTER
SENSIBLEMENT LES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES DU SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE
D'ICI SAMEDI ENTRE INHAMBANE AU NORD ET XAI-XAI AU SUD. DE FORTES
PLUIES POUVANT ATTEINDRE ET LOCALEMENT DEPASSER LES 150 MM EN 24H
SONT POSSIBLES SUR CES SECTEURS. DES VENTS FORTS POUVANT ATTEINDRE
100 KM/H EN RAFALES SUR LA COTE SONT POSSIBLES.=

>

2021-02-19 13:18


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 191303
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/11/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.9 S / 36.5 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 953 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 370 SW: 295 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 185 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/20 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 390 SW: 285 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65

24H: 2021/02/20 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 360 SW: 250 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 75

36H: 2021/02/21 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 75

48H: 2021/02/21 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 350 SW: 325 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 75

60H: 2021/02/22 00 UTC: 32.3 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 435 SW: 405 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 315 SW: 295 NW: 305
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 85

72H: 2021/02/22 12 UTC: 35.3 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 685 SW: 945 NW: 425
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 500 SW: 535 NW: 360
48 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/23 12 UTC: 39.6 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 455 SW: 345 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 350 SW: 260 NW: 140


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, GUAMBE'S EYE PATTERN HAS KEPT IMPROVING, WITH
A WELL-DEFINED AND VERY SMALL EYE SURROUNDED BY INCREASINGLY
SYMMETRICAL CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW VISIBLE
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HEALTHY UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC DIVERGENCE.
TAKING INTO ACOUNT THE VERY SMALL SIZE OF THE VORTEX WHICH INDUCES A
NEGATIVE BIAS TO OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES, WE CAN ESTIMATE A MEAN
DT AROUND 5.5- ON THE LAST SATELLITE IMAGES. THE INTENSITY IS THUS
SET AT 85 KT AT 1200Z.

GUAMBE CONTINUES ON ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THIS FRIDAY EVENING UNDER
THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF A RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND AN
AXIS OF HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL BRIDGING ACCROSS THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
TOWARDS A RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA. ACCORDING TO MOST NWP
MODELS, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD THEN TAKE A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
COMPONENT FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE APPROACH OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP GUAMBE AWAY FROM
THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE PRESENCE OF THE DEEP
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH SHOULD ACCELERATE GUAMBE'S MOVEMENT
SOUTHEASTWARDS, BUT WITH A TIMING THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN FROM SUNDAY
ONWARDS.

THE FAVOURABLE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS THE
SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE'S CORE FAVOUR A RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF
GUAMBE IN THE VERY SHORT RUN, MAKING IT PROBABLY REACH THE STAGE OF
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THIS FRIDAY NIGHT. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS,
DESPITE THE STILL FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE OCCURRENCE
OF AN EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IS LIKELY, WHICH COULD LIMIT
ITS INTENSITY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF CYCLONE
INTENSITY DURING AND AFTER AN ERC, THIS FORECAST DOES NOT TAKE FULL
ACCOUNT OF IT.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ON THE EDGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH, THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN, LEADING TO
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. INCREASINGLY RAPID SPEED OF MOVEMENT IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR MAINTAINS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TIMING OF ITS
WEAKENING. AT THE END OF THE TIME SPAN, A TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL
STATUS IS LIKELY, DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET.

EVEN IF THE PRESENT FORECAST TAKES GUAMBE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 100KM
OFF THE MOZAMBICAN COAST, GUAMBE IS LIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BETWEEN INHAMBANE TO THE NORTH AND XAI-XAI TO THE SOUTH. HEAVY RAINS
THAT CAN REACH AND LOCALLY EXCEED 150 MM IN 24 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. STRONG WINDS GUSTING UP TO 100 KM/H ON THE COAST ARE
POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY.=

>

2021-02-19 12:26


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 191225
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/02/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 19/02/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (GUAMBE) 953 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.9 S / 36.5 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM OF THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 15 NM IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/20 AT 00 UTC:
25.4 S / 36.1 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/20 AT 12 UTC:
26.5 S / 36.2 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 55 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-19 08:01


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 190708
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/11/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 19/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.4 S / 36.9 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET TRENTE SIX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 963 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SO: 280 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SO: 130 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/02/2021 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 350 SO: 280 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 165 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 20 NO: 65

24H: 20/02/2021 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 400 SO: 270 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SO: 185 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 65

36H: 20/02/2021 18 UTC: 27.3 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 345 SO: 240 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 175 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65

48H: 21/02/2021 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 360 SO: 295 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75

60H: 21/02/2021 18 UTC: 31.2 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 315 SO: 370 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SO: 230 NO: 250
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 75

72H: 22/02/2021 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 445 SO: 715 NO: 445
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SO: 435 NO: 360
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/02/2021 06 UTC: 38.5 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 530 SE: 555 SO: 335 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 400 SO: 285 NO: 165


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE GUAMBE
S'EST PEU A PEU AFFIRMEE SUR LES IMAGES SATELLITE INFRAROUGE ET
VISIBLE, AVEC UN OEIL DE PETITE TAILLE. LES DERNIERES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES MONTRENT AUSSI UNE STRUCTURE PLUS SYMETRIQUE ET MIEUX
DEFINIE DU CENTRE. CES DONNEES CONFIRMENT LA PRESENCE D'UN COEUR
CYCLONIQUE SYMETRIQUE ET BIEN CONSOLIDE, PROBABLEMENT EN COURS
D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK MOYENNEE SUR LES 3
DERNIERES HEURES SE SITUE A 5.0-, D'OU UNE INTENSITE MONTEE AU STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMES A 75 KT A 06UTC.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DE GUAMBE A PRIS UNE ORIENTATION TEMPORAIRE VERS LE
SUD-OUEST CE VENDREDI MATIN, SOUS LES INFLUENCES COMBINEES D'UNE
DORSALE SITUEE A L'EST DU SYSTEME ET D'UN AXE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS
CONTOURNANT LE SUD DU SYSTEME, FAISANT JONCTION AVEC LA DORSALE
SITUEE SUR L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE. D'APRES LA PLUPART DES GUIDANCES, LE
FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT ENSUITE PRENDRE UNE COMPOSANTE NORD A
NORD-OUEST A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME ET DE L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES PAR LE SUD. CELA DEVRAIT MAINTENIR GUAMBE A
L'ECART DES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE. EN COURS DE WEEKEND, LA PRESENCE DU
PROFOND TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD DEVRAIT FAVORISER UNE
ACCELERATION DU MOUVEMENT DE GUAMBE VERS LE SUD-EST MAIS AVEC UNE
CHRONOLOGIE QUI RESTE INCERTAINE A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE.

L'ENVIRONNEMENT OCEANIQUE ET ATMOSPHERIQUE FAVORABLE AINSI QUE LA
PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME FAVORISENT UNE INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE DE
GUAMBE A COURT TERME, POUR PROBABLEMENT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE DES CE VENDREDI SOIR. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, MALGRE DES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTANT FAVORABLES, LA SURVENUE D'UN
CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL EST PROBABLE D'ICI DIMANCHE,
CE QUI POURRAIT LIMITER SON INTENSITE. CEPENDANT, ETANT DONNEE LA
FAIBLE PREVISIBILITE DE L'INTENSITE D'UN CYCLONE DANS CE TYPE DE
CONTEXTE, LA PRESENTE PREVISION N'EN TIENT PAS PLEINEMENT COMPTE.
EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, EN MARGE DU TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES, LE
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE
RENFORCER, CONDUISANT A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. TOUT COMME POUR
LA TRAJECTOIRE, LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME DE PLUS EN PLUS
RAPIDE DANS LE SENS DU CISAILLEMENT ENTRETIENT UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LE
TIMING DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE UNE EVOLUTION EN
POST-TROPICAL EST POSSIBLE EN FONCTION DU DEGRE D'INTERACTION AVEC LE
JET SUBTROPICAL.

MEME SI LA PRESENTE PREVISION FAIT PASSER GUAMBE A ENVIRON 100KM AU
LARGE DES COTES MOZAMBICAINES, GUAMBE RISQUE D'AFFECTER SENSIBLEMENT
LES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES DU SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE VENDREDI ET
SAMEDI ENTRE INHAMBANE AU NORD ET XAI-XAI AU SUD. DE FORTES PLUIES
POUVANT ATTEINDRE ET LOCALEMENT DEPASSER LES 150 MM EN 24H SONT
POSSIBLES SUR CES SECTEURS. DES VENTS FORTS POUVANT ATTEINDRE 100
KM/H EN RAFALES SUR LA COTE SONT POSSIBLES A PARTIR DE VENDREDI.=

>

2021-02-19 08:01


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 190708
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/11/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/19 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.4 S / 36.9 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 963 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/19 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 20 NW: 65

24H: 2021/02/20 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 400 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 65

36H: 2021/02/20 18 UTC: 27.3 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 345 SW: 240 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

48H: 2021/02/21 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 360 SW: 295 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75

60H: 2021/02/21 18 UTC: 31.2 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 315 SW: 370 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 250
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75

72H: 2021/02/22 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 445 SW: 715 NW: 445
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SW: 435 NW: 360
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/23 06 UTC: 38.5 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 530 SE: 555 SW: 335 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 400 SW: 285 NW: 165


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, GUAMBE'S EYE PATTERN HAS GRADUALLY IMPROVED ON
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES, WITH A SMALL EYE. THE LATEST
MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOW A MORE SYMMETRICAL AND BETTER STRUCTURED
INNER CORE. THESE DATA CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-CONSOLIDATED
CYCLONIC CORE, WHICH IS PROBABLY IN A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS AVERAGED OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS IS AT 5.0-, HENCE AN
INTENSITY RISEN TO THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 75 KT AT 06UTC.

GUAMBE'S TRACK HAS TAKEN A TEMPORARY SOUTH-WESTERLY TURN THIS FRIDAY
MORNING, UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF A RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE
SYSTEM AND AN AXIS OF HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL BRIDGING ACCROSS THE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS A RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA. ACCORDING TO
MOST NWP MODELS, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD THEN TAKE A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST TURN FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP GUAMBE AWAY FROM
THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE PRESENCE OF THE DEEP
MID-LATITUDE TALWEG TO THE SOUTH SHOULD ACCELERATE GUAMBE'S MOVEMENT
SOUTH-EASTWARDS, BUT THE TIMING OF THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN FROM SUNDAY
ONWARDS.

THE FAVOURABLE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS THE
SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE'S CORE FAVOUR A RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF
GUAMBE IN THE SHORT RUN, MAKING IT PROBABLY REACHING THE STAGE OF
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THIS FRIDAY EVENING. FROM SATURDAY
ONWARDS, DESPITE THE STILL FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE
OCCURRENCE OF A EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IS LIKELY BY SUNDAY,
WHICH COULD LIMIT ITS INTENSITY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LOW
PREDICTABILITY OF CYCLONE INTENSITY IN THIS TYPE OF CONTEXT, THIS
FORECAST DOES NOT TAKE FULL ACCOUNT OF IT.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ON THE EDGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH, THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN, LEADING
TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. AS WITH THE TRACK THE SYSTEM'S
INCREASINGLY RAPID SPEED OF MOVEMENT IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR
MAINTAINS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TIMING OF ITS WEAKENING. AT THE END
OF THE TIME SPAN, A TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL STATUS IS LIKELY,
DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET.

EVEN IF THE PRESENT FORECAST TAKES GUAMBE ABOUT 100KM OFF THE
MOZAMBICAN COAST, GUAMBE IS LIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BETWEEN INHAMBANE TO THE NORTH AND XAI-XAI TO THE SOUTH. HEAVY RAINS
THAT CAN REACH AND LOCALLY EXCEED 150 MM IN 24 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. STRONG WINDS GUSTING UP TO 100 KM/H ON THE COAST ARE
POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY.=

>

2021-02-19 07:48


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 190900
WARNING ATCG MIL 21S SIO 210219071142
2021021906 21S GUAMBE 004 01 215 06 SATL 040
T000 246S 0368E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 135 SE QD 090 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 253S 0363E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 260S 0361E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 273S 0364E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 290S 0377E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 340S 0460E 070 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 180 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 24.6S 36.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 36.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.3S 36.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 26.0S 36.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 27.3S 36.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 29.0S 37.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 34.0S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 36.7E.
19FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236
NM SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WITH A SMALL, COMPACT CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AND A DISORGANIZED, ELONGATED AND CLOUD FILLED EYE FEATURE. AN 190225Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED A VERY COMPACT CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AND A VERY WELL DEFINED, SMALL MICROWAVE EYE AND SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ELONGATED EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR, AS WELL AS EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 190225Z GMI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES T3.5-4.0 (55-65 KTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE, AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.7 AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 67 KTS IN LIGHT OF THE OVERALL IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND APPEARNCE OF THE WEAK EYE FEATURES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, WARM (28-29C) SSTS AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND QUICKLY IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS BEGINNING TO TAP INTO MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. TC 21S IS TRACKING SOUTWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWEST BEFORE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 24 AND ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 36 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. TC 21S WILL START EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A HURRICANE FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 72 AS IT RAPIDLY TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD, BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TAKES ON FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH INCREASING ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO ECMWF AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.//
2121021200 229S 361E 25
2121021206 224S 353E 20
2121021212 221S 345E 20
2121021218 220S 347E 20
2121021300 221S 350E 20
2121021306 225S 351E 20
2121021312 229S 343E 20
2121021318 233S 338E 20
2121021400 233S 328E 20
2121021406 233S 323E 20
2121021412 231S 319E 20
2121021418 230S 322E 25
2121021500 228S 325E 25
2121021506 225S 332E 25
2121021512 223S 338E 25
2121021518 219S 340E 25
2121021600 216S 351E 25
2121021606 218S 358E 20
2121021612 217S 363E 20
2121021618 212S 366E 25
2121021700 211S 370E 25
2121021706 213S 373E 30
2121021712 215S 374E 40
2121021718 217S 374E 45
2121021800 221S 374E 45
2121021806 226S 376E 50
2121021806 226S 376E 50
2121021812 230S 375E 50
2121021818 236S 374E 60
2121021818 236S 374E 60
2121021900 241S 372E 65
2121021900 241S 372E 65
2121021900 241S 372E 65
2121021906 246S 368E 70
2121021906 246S 368E 70
2121021906 246S 368E 70
NNNN

>

2021-02-19 07:47


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 24.6S 36.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 36.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.3S 36.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 26.0S 36.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 27.3S 36.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 29.0S 37.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 34.0S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 36.7E.
19FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236
NM SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) AND
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING
AND INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WITH A SMALL, COMPACT CORE OF DEEP
CONVECTION AND A DISORGANIZED, ELONGATED AND CLOUD FILLED EYE
FEATURE. AN 190225Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED A VERY
COMPACT CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AND A VERY WELL DEFINED, SMALL
MICROWAVE EYE AND SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ELONGATED EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR, AS WELL AS
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 190225Z GMI IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE,
HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES T3.5-
4.0 (55-65 KTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE, AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.7 AND A
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 67 KTS IN LIGHT OF THE OVERALL IMPROVED STRUCTURE
AND APPEARNCE OF THE WEAK EYE FEATURES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION WITH
LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, WARM (28-29C) SSTS AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND
QUICKLY IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS BEGINNING TO TAP INTO
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. TC 21S IS TRACKING
SOUTWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TC 21S
WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWEST BEFORE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR
TAU 24 AND ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TO
A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 36 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. TC 21S WILL START EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A
HURRICANE FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 72 AS IT RAPIDLY
TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD, BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND TAKES ON FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH INCREASING ALONG-TRACK
UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO ECMWF
AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-19 06:36


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 190634
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/02/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 19/02/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (GUAMBE) 963 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.4 S / 36.9 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM OF THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/19 AT 18 UTC:
24.9 S / 36.1 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 10 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/20 AT 06 UTC:
25.7 S / 36.0 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 50 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-19 00:48


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 190027
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/11/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 19/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.0 S / 37.2 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET TRENTE SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 185 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 185 SO: 55 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/02/2021 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 325 SO: 325 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 230 SO: 175 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 85

24H: 20/02/2021 00 UTC: 25.0 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 370 SO: 260 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SO: 185 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 85

36H: 20/02/2021 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 35.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 350 SO: 220 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SO: 155 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 95 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 75

48H: 21/02/2021 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 345 SO: 240 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SO: 185 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 75

60H: 21/02/2021 12 UTC: 29.7 S / 38.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 305 SO: 325 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 240
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85

72H: 22/02/2021 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 380 SO: 500 NO: 405
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 285 SO: 325 NO: 305
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/02/2021 00 UTC: 35.6 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 390 SO: 325 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 305 SO: 250 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 85

120H: 24/02/2021 00 UTC: 38.7 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 150

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5+.

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE GUAMBE EN CDO S'EST CONSOLIDEE PAR
RAPPORT AUX 6HEURES PRECEDENTES, AVEC SUR LES TOUTES DERNIERES IMAGES
SATELLITE, L'APPARITION D'UN POINT CHAUD EN IR.
LES VENTS MAXIMAUX ETANT PLUTOT LOCALISE DANS LE SECTEUR EST D'APRES
LA PASSE SCATSAT DE 17H30.

LE SYSTEME SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS
OPPOSES: UN FLUX DE SUD-EST GENERE PAR LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS
SUBTROPICAUX ET UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST PAR UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE. LA TRAJECTOIRE DE GUAMBE A PRIS UNE ORIENTATION
DAVANTAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACADE OUEST DE CETTE DORSALE. LES
DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES SONT DE PLUS EN PLUS EN ACCORD SUR
L'ORIENTATION GENERALE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE, L'OPTIQUE D'UN
RAPPROCHEMENT DES COTES MOZAMBICAINES ETANT GLOBALEMENT MOINS
PRESENT. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DU CMRS SUIT CETTE PHILOSOPHIE.
EN FIN DE SEMAINE, LA PRESENCE D'UN PROFOND TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES AU SUD DU CANAL DEVRAIT FAVORISER UNE EVACUATION DE GUAMBE
VERS LE SUD-EST MAIS LA CHRONOLOGIE SUR CETTE ACCELERATION RESTE
INCERTAINE ENTRE LES MODELES A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE.

L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE GUAMBE EST PLUTOT FAVORABLE A UNE INTENSIFICATION
REGULIERE, SEULE LA CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES RESTE ENCORE
LIMITATIVE. PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE : UNE
INTENSIFICATION D'ABORD LENTE PUIS PLUS FRANCHE DU SYSTEME EST
ATTENDUE. CES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES ASSOCIEES A UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT MEME A CES LATITUDES, DEVRAIT PERMETTRE A GUAMBE
D'ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL VOIRE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE.
EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, EN MARGE DU TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES, LE
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST POURRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE
RENFORCER CONDUISANT A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. TOUT COMME POUR
LA TRAJECTOIRE, LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME DE PLUS EN PLUS
RAPIDE DANS LE SENS DU CISAILLEMENT ENTRETIENT UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LE
TIMING DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE UNE EVOLUTION EN
POST-TROPICAL EST POSSIBLE EN FONCTION DU DEGRE D'INTERACTION AVEC LE
JET SUBTROPICAL.

MEME SI LA PRESENTE PREVISION FAIT PASSER GUAMBE AU LARGE DES COTES
MOZAMBICAINES, GUAMBE RISQUE D'AFFECTER SENSIBLEMENT LES CONDITIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES DU SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE NOTAMMENT VENDREDI ET SAMEDI
ENTRE VILANKULO AU NORD ET XAI-XAI AU SUD. DE FORTES PLUIES POUVANT
ATTEINDRE ET LOCALEMENT DEPASSER LES 150 MM EN 24H SONT POSSIBLES SUR
CES SECTEURS. DES VENTS FORTS POUVANT ATTEINDRE 100 KM/H EN RAFALES
SUR LA COTE SONT POSSIBLES A PARTIR DE VENDREDI. LE RISQUE DE SURCOTE
EST GLOBALEMENT FAIBLE DANS LE SECTEUR PUISQUE DANS LE SCENARIO DU
PIRE, ELLE EST ESTIMEE A 1M (INF. A 50 CM DANS LE SCENARIO LE PLUS
PROBABLE).=

>

2021-02-19 00:48


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 190027
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/11/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.0 S / 37.2 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 185 SW: 55 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/19 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 325 SW: 325 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 85

24H: 2021/02/20 00 UTC: 25.0 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 85

36H: 2021/02/20 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 35.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 350 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 75

48H: 2021/02/21 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 345 SW: 240 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 75

60H: 2021/02/21 12 UTC: 29.7 S / 38.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 305 SW: 325 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85

72H: 2021/02/22 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 380 SW: 500 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 285 SW: 325 NW: 305
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/23 00 UTC: 35.6 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 390 SW: 325 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 85

120H: 2021/02/24 00 UTC: 38.7 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 150

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+.

THE CLOUDY CONFIGURATION OF GUAMBE IN CDO HAS CONSOLIDATED COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS 6 HOURS, WITH THE APPEARANCE OF A HOT SPOT IN IR ON
THE VERY LAST SATELLITE IMAGES.
THE MAXIMUM WINDS BEING RATHER LOCALIZED IN THE EASTERN SECTOR
ACCORDING TO THE SCATSAT PASS OF 17H30.

THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OPPOSITE DIRECTIONAL
FLOWS: A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW GENERATED BY SUBTROPICAL GEOPOTENTIAL
HIGHS AND A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE
TRAJECTORY OF GUAMBE HAS TAKEN A MORE SOUTH-WESTERLY ORIENTATION ON
THE WESTERN FACE OF THIS RIDGE. THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCES ARE MORE AND
MORE IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL ORIENTATION OF THE TRAJECTORY, THE
OPTICS OF A RAPPROCHEMENT OF THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS BEING GLOBALLY
LESS PRESENT. THE PRESENT FORECAST OF THE CMRS FOLLOWS THIS
PHILOSOPHY.
AT THE END OF THE WEEK, THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
SOUTH OF THE CANAL SHOULD FAVOR A SOUTH-EASTWARD EVACUATION OF GUAMBE
BUT THE CHRONOLOGY ON THIS ACCELERATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN BETWEEN THE
MODELS FROM SUNDAY ON.

THE ENVIRONMENT OF GUAMBE IS RATHER FAVORABLE TO A REGULAR
INTENSIFICATION, ONLY THE CONVERGENCE OF LOW LEVELS IS STILL
LIMITING. NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST: A SLOWER AND THEN
MORE INTENSE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED. THESE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL
EVEN AT THESE LATITUDES, SHOULD ALLOW GUAMBE TO REACH THE STAGE OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OR EVEN AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, ON THE EDGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, THE
NORTHWESTERN SECTOR SHEAR COULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN LEADING TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. AS FOR THE TRACK, THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS INCREASINGLY RAPID IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
SHEAR, MAINTAINS AN UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE WEAKENING. AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD A POST-TROPICAL EVOLUTION IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING
ON THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET.

EVEN IF THIS PREDICTION MAKES GUAMBE PASS OFF THE MOZAMBICAN COAST,
GUAMBE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN
MOZAMBIQUE, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BETWEEN VILANKULO IN
THE NORTH AND XAI-XAI IN THE SOUTH. HEAVY RAINS THAT CAN REACH AND
LOCALLY EXCEED 150 MM IN 24 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE ON THESE SECTORS.
STRONG WINDS THAT CAN REACH 100 KM/H IN GUSTS ON THE COAST ARE
POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY. THE RISK OF STORM SURGE IS GLOBALLY LOW IN THE
SECTOR SINCE IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO, IT IS ESTIMATED AT 1M
(INFERIOR TO 50 CM IN THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO).=

>

2021-02-19 00:17


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 190015
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/02/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 19/02/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (GUAMBE) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.0 S / 37.2 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM
IN SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/19 AT 12 UTC:
24.5 S / 36.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/20 AT 00 UTC:
25.0 S / 35.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-18 21:13


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 182100
WARNING ATCG MIL 21S SIO 210218204200
2021021818 21S GUAMBE 003 01 180 06 SATL 040
T000 236S 0373E 055 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 135 SE QD 095 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 243S 0368E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 249S 0362E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 257S 0358E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 268S 0359E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 304S 0400E 070 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 180 SW QD 170 NW QD
T096 333S 0476E 055 R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 180 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 23.6S 37.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6S 37.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 24.3S 36.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 24.9S 36.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 25.7S 35.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 26.8S 35.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 30.4S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 33.3S 47.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 23.8S 37.2E.
18FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
181 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z.//
2121021200 229S 361E 25
2121021206 224S 353E 20
2121021212 221S 345E 20
2121021218 220S 347E 20
2121021300 221S 350E 20
2121021306 225S 351E 20
2121021312 229S 343E 20
2121021318 233S 338E 20
2121021400 233S 328E 20
2121021406 233S 323E 20
2121021412 231S 319E 20
2121021418 230S 322E 25
2121021500 228S 325E 25
2121021506 225S 332E 25
2121021512 223S 338E 25
2121021518 219S 340E 25
2121021600 216S 351E 25
2121021606 218S 358E 20
2121021612 217S 363E 20
2121021618 212S 366E 25
2121021700 211S 370E 25
2121021706 213S 373E 30
2121021712 215S 374E 40
2121021718 217S 374E 45
2121021800 221S 374E 45
2121021806 225S 373E 50
2121021806 225S 373E 50
2121021812 230S 373E 50
2121021818 236S 373E 55
2121021818 236S 373E 55
NNNN

>

2021-02-18 21:13


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 23.6S 37.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6S 37.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 24.3S 36.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 24.9S 36.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 25.7S 35.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 26.8S 35.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 30.4S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 33.3S 47.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 23.8S 37.2E.
18FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
181 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 181620Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A COMPACT CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH
FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO THE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH AND WARM (28-29C) SST
VALUES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON THE
HIGHER END OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.0-3.5 (45-55
KNOTS) AND AN 181800Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 3.5 (55 KNOTS). AN 181842Z
ASCAT-A PARTIAL IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSTION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. AFTER
TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) NEAR TAU 72 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT ACCELERATES
WITHIN THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS AT TAU 36
AND TAU 48. STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER TAU 48 AS VWS
INCREASES AND SST VALUES COOL TO 25-24C. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-18 18:41


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 181839
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/11/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 18/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.4 S / 37.1 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET TRENTE SEPT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 185 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 185 SO: 55 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/02/2021 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 36.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 360 SO: 350 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 75

24H: 19/02/2021 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 325 SO: 295 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 95

36H: 20/02/2021 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 35.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 390 SO: 325 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 75

48H: 20/02/2021 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 360 SO: 280 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 75

60H: 21/02/2021 06 UTC: 28.6 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 350 SO: 315 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 85

72H: 21/02/2021 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 335 SO: 455 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 260 SO: 295 NO: 280
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/02/2021 18 UTC: 34.9 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 435 SO: 405 NO: 400
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 270 SO: 325 NO: 260
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 85

120H: 23/02/2021 18 UTC: 37.8 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 335 SO: 315 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 230 SO: 270 NO: 185

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE GUAMBE EN CDO S'EST MAINTENU PAR RAPPORT
AUX 6HEURES PRECEDENTES. LES DERNIERES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES GMI DE
13H04 ET SSMIS DE 14H15 ET 14H44, ONT PERMIS DE RELOCALISE LE CENTRE
PLUS A L'OUEST QUE POUR LE RESEAU PRECEDENT.
UNE ANALYSE DVORAK EN CDO PERMET DE DEFINIR UN CI DE 3.5- VOIRE 3.5.
GUAMBE EST DONC MAINTENU AU STADE MINIMAL DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE
AVEC DES VENTS MAXIMAUX PLUTOT LOCALISE DANS LE SECTEUR EST D'APRES
LA PASSE HY-2C DE 12H30.

LE SYSTEME SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS
OPPOSES: UN FLUX DE SUD-EST GENERE PAR LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS
SUBTROPICAUX ET UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST PAR UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE. LA TRAJECTOIRE DE GUAMBE A PRIS DEPUIS PEU UNE
ORIENTATION DAVANTAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACADE OUEST DE CETTE
DORSALE. LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES SONT DE PLUS EN PLUS EN ACCORD SUR
L'ORIENTATION GENERALE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE, L'OPTIQUE D'UN
RAPPROCHEMENT DES COTES MOZAMBICAINES ETANT GLOBALEMENT MOINS
PRESENT. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DU CMRS SUIT CETTE PHILOSOPHIE.
EN FIN DE SEMAINE, LA PRESENCE D'UN PROFOND TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES AU SUD DU CANAL DEVRAIT FAVORISER UNE EVACUATION DE GUAMBE
VERS LE SUD-EST MAIS LA CHRONOLOGIE SUR CETTE ACCELERATION RESTE
INCERTAINE ENTRE LES MODELES A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE.

L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE GUAMBE EST PLUTOT FAVORABLE A UNE INTENSIFICATION
REGULIERE, SEULE LA CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES RESTE ENCORE
LIMITATIVE. PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE : UNE
INTENSIFICATION D'ABORD LENTE PUIS PLUS FRANCHE DU SYSTEME EST
ATTENDUE. CES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES ASSOCIEES A UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT MEME A CES LATITUDES, DEVRAIT PERMETTRE A GUAMBE
D'ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL VOIRE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE.
EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, EN MARGE DU TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES, LE
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST POURRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE
RENFORCER CONDUISANT A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. TOUT COMME POUR
LA TRAJECTOIRE, LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME DE PLUS EN PLUS
RAPIDE DANS LE SENS DU CISAILLEMENT ENTRETIENT UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LE
TIMING DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. EN TOUTE FIN D'ECHEANCE UNE EVOLUTION EN
POST-TROPICAL EST POSSIBLE EN FONCTION DU DEGRE D'INTERACTION AVEC LE
JET SUBTROPICAL.

MEME SI LA PRESENTE PREVISION FAIT PASSER GUAMBE AU LARGE DES COTES
MOZAMBICAINES, GUAMBE RISQUE D'AFFECTER SENSIBLEMENT LES CONDITIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES DU SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE NOTAMMENT VENDREDI ET SAMEDI
ENTRE VILANKULO AU NORD ET XAI-XAI AU SUD. DE FORTES PLUIES POUVANT
ATTEINDRE ET LOCALEMENT DEPASSER LES 150 MM EN 24H SONT POSSIBLES SUR
CES SECTEURS. DES VENTS FORTS POUVANT ATTEINDRE 100 KM/H EN RAFALES
SUR LA COTE SONT POSSIBLES A PARTIR DE VENDREDI. LE RISQUE DE SURCOTE
EST GLOBALEMENT FAIBLE DANS LE SECTEUR PUISQUE DANS LE SCENARIO DU
PIRE, ELLE EST ESTIMEE A 1M (INF. A 50 CM DANS LE SCENARIO LE PLUS
PROBABLE) SUR LA MAJEURE PARTIE DE LA COTE, MAIS PROCHE DE 1.5M A 2M
AU FOND DE LA BAIE D'INHAMBANE. IL POURRAIT ETRE PLUS SIGNIFICATIF SI
LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME VENAIT A MENACER PLUS DIRECTEMENT
INHAMBANE.=

>

2021-02-18 18:41


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 181839
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/11/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 37.1 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 185 SW: 55 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/19 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 36.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 360 SW: 350 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 75

24H: 2021/02/19 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 325 SW: 295 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 95

36H: 2021/02/20 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 35.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 390 SW: 325 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 75

48H: 2021/02/20 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 360 SW: 280 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 75

60H: 2021/02/21 06 UTC: 28.6 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 350 SW: 315 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 85

72H: 2021/02/21 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 335 SW: 455 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 260 SW: 295 NW: 280
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/22 18 UTC: 34.9 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 435 SW: 405 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 270 SW: 325 NW: 260
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85

120H: 2021/02/23 18 UTC: 37.8 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 335 SW: 315 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 230 SW: 270 NW: 185

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

THE CLOUDY CONFIGURATION OF GUAMBE IN CDO WAS MAINTAINED COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS 6 HOURS. THE LAST MICROWAVE DATA FROM GMI OF 13H04 AND
SSMIS OF 14H15 AND 14H44, ALLOWED TO RELOCATE THE CENTRE MORE TO THE
WEST THAN FOR THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
A DVORAK ANALYSIS IN CDO ALLOWS TO DEFINE A CI OF 3.5- OR EVEN 3.5.
GUAMBE IS THUS MAINTAINED AT THE MINIMAL STAGE OF STRONG TROPICAL
STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS RATHER LOCALIZED IN THE EASTERN SECTOR
ACCORDING TO THE PASS HY-2C OF 12H30.

THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OPPOSITE DIRECTIONAL
FLOWS: A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW GENERATED BY SUBTROPICAL GEOPOTENTIAL
HIGHS AND A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE
TRAJECTORY OF GUAMBE HAS RECENTLY TAKEN A MORE SOUTH-WESTERLY
ORIENTATION ON THE WESTERN FACE OF THIS RIDGE. THE DIFFERENT
GUIDANCES ARE MORE AND MORE IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL ORIENTATION
OF THE TRAJECTORY, THE OPTICS OF A RAPPROCHEMENT OF THE MOZAMBICAN
COASTS BEING GLOBALLY LESS PRESENT. THE PRESENT FORECAST OF THE CMRS
FOLLOWS THIS PHILOSOPHY.
AT THE END OF THE WEEK, THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
SOUTH OF THE CANAL SHOULD FAVOR A SOUTH-EASTWARD EVACUATION OF GUAMBE
BUT THE CHRONOLOGY ON THIS ACCELERATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN BETWEEN THE
MODELS FROM SUNDAY ON.

THE ENVIRONMENT OF GUAMBE IS RATHER FAVORABLE TO A REGULAR
INTENSIFICATION, ONLY THE CONVERGENCE OF LOW LEVELS IS STILL
LIMITING. NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST: A SLOWER AND THEN
MORE INTENSE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED. THESE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL
EVEN AT THESE LATITUDES, SHOULD ALLOW GUAMBE TO REACH THE STAGE OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OR EVEN AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, ON THE EDGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, THE
NORTHWESTERN SECTOR SHEAR COULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN LEADING TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. AS FOR THE TRACK, THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS INCREASINGLY RAPID IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
SHEAR, MAINTAINS AN UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE WEAKENING. AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD A POST-TROPICAL EVOLUTION IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING
ON THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET.

EVEN IF THIS PREDICTION MAKES GUAMBE PASS OFF THE MOZAMBICAN COAST,
GUAMBE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN
MOZAMBIQUE, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BETWEEN VILANKULO IN
THE NORTH AND XAI-XAI IN THE SOUTH. HEAVY RAINS THAT CAN REACH AND
LOCALLY EXCEED 150 MM IN 24 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE ON THESE SECTORS.
STRONG WINDS THAT CAN REACH 100 KM/H IN GUSTS ON THE COAST ARE
POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY. THE RISK OF STORM SURGE IS GLOBALLY LOW IN THE
SECTOR SINCE IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO, IT IS ESTIMATED AT 1M
(INFERIOR TO 50 CM IN THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO) ON THE MAIN PART OF
THE COASTE, BUT MORE ABOUT 1.5 TO 2M AT THE BOTTOM OF THE BAY OF
INHAMBANE. IT COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT IF THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
WOULD THREATEN MORE DIRECTLY INHAMBANE.=

>

2021-02-18 18:15


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 181813
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/02/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 18/02/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (GUAMBE) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 37.1 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM
IN NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/19 AT 06 UTC:
24.2 S / 36.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 200 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/19 AT 18 UTC:
24.8 S / 36.1 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 50 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-18 12:17


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 181213
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/11/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 18/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.3 S / 37.6 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES TROIS SUD ET TRENTE SEPT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SO: 165 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/02/2021 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 370 SO: 205 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 30 SO: 65 NO: 35

24H: 19/02/2021 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 400 SO: 390 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SO: 85 NO: 75

36H: 20/02/2021 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 400 SO: 305 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SO: 215 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 100 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 75

48H: 20/02/2021 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 360 SO: 270 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SO: 205 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 75

60H: 21/02/2021 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 380 SO: 270 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 205 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75

72H: 21/02/2021 12 UTC: 29.3 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 345 SO: 325 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SO: 250 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/02/2021 12 UTC: 33.4 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 370 SO: 655 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SO: 405 NO: 315
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SO: 175 NO: 150
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 95

120H: 23/02/2021 12 UTC: 36.2 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 270 SO: 360 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SO: 240 NO: 215

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE GUAMBE EN CDO SE MAINTIENT PAR RAPPORT
AUX 6HEURES PRECEDENTES ET EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES MICRO-ONDES LAISSE
UNE LOCALISATION DU CENTRE INCERTAINE. UNE ANALYSE DVORAK EN CDO
PERMET DE DEFINIR UN CI DE 3.5- VOIRE 3.5. A PARTIR DES DONNEES
SCATSAT DE CE MATIN QUI PLAIDENT POUR DES VALEURS DE VENTS DE L'ORDRE
DE 45KT DANS LE SECTEUR EST ET UNE LEGERE TENDANCE A
L'INTENSIFICATION AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, IL EST POSSIBLE
D'OPTER POUR UN CI DE 3.5 CLASSANT GUAMBE AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS MAXIMAUX DE L'ORDRE DE 50KT DANS LE SECTEUR
EST.

LE SYSTEME RESTE SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS OPPOSES: UN FLUX
DE SUD-EST GENERE PAR LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX ET UN FLUX
DE NORD-OUEST PAR UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE. LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE SE RECONSTITUE ET PREND LE DESSUS SUR LA GOURNANCE DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE GUAMBE COMME LE MONTRE LE DEPLACEMENT ACTUEL VERS LE
SUD. PAR LA SUITE, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE GUAMBE VA S'ORIENTER DAVANTAGE
VERS LE SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACADE OUEST DE CETTE DORSALE. LES
DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES SONT DE PLUS EN PLUS EN ACCORD SUR
L'ORIENTATION GENERALE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE, L'OPTIQUE D'UN
RAPPROCHEMENT DES COTES MOZAMBICAINES ETANT MOINS PRESENT. LA
PRESENTE PREVISION DU CMRS SUITE CETTE PHILOSOPHIE. EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, LA PRESENCE D'UN PROFOND TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU
SUD DU CANAL DEVRAIT FAVORISER UNE EVACUATION DE GUAMBE VERS LE
SUD-EST MAIS LA CHRONOLOGIE SUR CETTE ACCELERATION RESTE INCERTAINE
ENTRE LES MODELES A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE.

L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE GUAMBE EST PLUTOT FAVORABLE A UNE INTENSIFICATION
REGULIERE, SEULE LA CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES RESTE ENCORE
LIMITATIVE. PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE : UNE
INTENSIFICATION D'ABORD LENTE PUIS PLUS FRANCHE DU SYSTEME EST
ATTENDUE. CES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES ASSOCIEES A UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT MEME A CES LATITUDES, DEVRAIT PERMETTRE A GUAMBE
D'ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL VOIRE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, EN MARGE DU TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST POURRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT SE RENFORCER CONDUISANT A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
SYSTEME. TOUT COMME POUR LA TRAJECTOIRE, LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU
SYSTEME DE PLUS EN PLUS RAPIDE DANS LE SENS DU CISAILLEMENT
ENTRETIENT UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LE TIMING DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. EN
TOUTE FIN D'ECHEANCE UNE EVOLUTION EN POST-TROPICAL EST POSSIBLE EN
FONCTION DU DEGRE D'INTERACTION AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL.

MEME SI LA PRESENTE PREVISION ELOIGNE UN PEU PLUS GUAMBE DES COTES
MOZAMBICAINES PAR RAPPORT AUX PRECENTES PREVISIONS, GUAMBE RISQUE
D'AFFECTER SENSIBLEMENT LES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES DU SUD DU
MOZAMBIQUE NOTAMMENT VENDREDI ET SAMEDI ENTRE VILANKULO AU NORD ET
XAI-XAI AU SUD. DE FORTES PLUIES POUVANT ATTEINDRE ET LOCALEMENT
DEPASSER LES 150 MM EN 24H SONT POSSIBLES SUR CES SECTEURS. DES VENTS
FORTS POUVANT ATTEINDRE 100 KM/H EN RAFALES SUR LA COTE SONT
POSSIBLES A PARTIR DE VENDREDI. LE RISQUE DE SURCOTE EST GLOBALEMENT
FAIBLE DANS LE SECTEUR PUISQUE DANS LE SCENARIO DU PIRE, ELLE EST
ESTIMEE A 1M (INF. A 50 CM DANS LE SCENARIO LE PLUS PROBABLE). IL
POURRAIT ETRE PLUS SIGNIFICATIF SI LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME VENAIT A
MENACER PLUS DIRECTEMENT INHAMBANE.=

>

2021-02-18 12:17


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 181213
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/11/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.3 S / 37.6 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/19 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 370 SW: 205 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 30 SW: 65 NW: 35

24H: 2021/02/19 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 400 SW: 390 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 85 NW: 75

36H: 2021/02/20 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 400 SW: 305 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 100 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 75

48H: 2021/02/20 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 360 SW: 270 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75

60H: 2021/02/21 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 380 SW: 270 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75

72H: 2021/02/21 12 UTC: 29.3 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 345 SW: 325 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/22 12 UTC: 33.4 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 370 SW: 655 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SW: 405 NW: 315
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 175 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 95

120H: 2021/02/23 12 UTC: 36.2 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 270 SW: 360 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 215

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

THE CLOUDY CONFIGURATION OF GUAMBE IN CDO IS MAINTAINED COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS 6 HOURS AND IN THE ABSENCE OF MICROWAVE DATA LEAVES THE
LOCATION OF THE CENTER UNCERTAIN. A DVORAK ANALYSIS IN CDO ALLOWS TO
DEFINE A CI OF 3.5- OR EVEN 3.5. FROM THIS MORNING'S SCATSAT DATA
WHICH PLEADS FOR WIND VALUES OF AROUND 45KT IN THE EASTERN SECTOR AND
A SLIGHT TENDENCY TO INTENSIFY DURING THE LAST HOURS, IT IS POSSIBLE
TO OPT FOR A CI OF 3.5 CLASSIFYING GUAMBE AT THE STAGE OF SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 50KT IN THE EASTERN
SECTOR.

THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OPPOSITE DIRECTIONAL FLOWS:
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW GENERATED BY SUBTROPICAL GEOPOTENTIAL HIGHS AND
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GENERATED BY A RIDGE NEAR THE EQUATOR. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS RECONSTITUTING ITSELF AND TAKES CONTROL OF THE
GUAMBE TRACK AS SHOWN BY THE CURRENT SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. THEREAFTER,
THE TRACK OF GUAMBE WILL BE ORIENTED MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE. THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCES ARE MORE AND
MORE IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL ORIENTATION OF THE TRACK, THE OPTICS
OF AN APPROACH OF THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS BEING LESS PRESENT. THE
PRESENT RSMC FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS PHILOSOPHY. AT THE END OF THE
WEEK, THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE CANAL
SHOULD FAVOR A SOUTH-EASTWARD EVACUATION OF GUAMBE BUT THE CHRONOLOGY
ON THIS ACCELERATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN BETWEEN THE MODELS FROM SUNDAY
ON.

THE ENVIRONMENT OF GUAMBE IS RATHER FAVORABLE TO A REGULAR
INTENSIFICATION, ONLY THE CONVERGENCE OF LOW LEVELS IS STILL
LIMITING. NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST: A SLOWER AND THEN
MORE INTENSE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED. THESE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL
EVEN AT THESE LATITUDES, SHOULD ALLOW GUAMBE TO REACH THE STAGE OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OR EVEN AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, ON THE EDGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, THE
NORTHWESTERN SECTOR SHEAR COULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN LEADING TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. AS FOR THE TRACK, THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS INCREASINGLY RAPID IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
SHEAR, MAINTAINS AN UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE WEAKENING. AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD A POST-TROPICAL EVOLUTION IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING
ON THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET.

EVEN IF THE PRESENT FORECAST IS A LITTLE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
MOZAMBICAN COAST THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, GUAMBE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY
AFFECT THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE, ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BETWEEN VILANKULO IN THE NORTH AND XAI-XAI IN THE
SOUTH. HEAVY RAINS THAT CAN REACH AND LOCALLY EXCEED 150 MM IN 24
HOURS ARE POSSIBLE ON THESE SECTORS. STRONG WINDS THAT CAN REACH 100
KM/H IN GUSTS ON THE COAST ARE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY. THE RISK OF
STORM SURGE IS GLOBALLY LOW IN THE SECTOR SINCE IN THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO, IT IS ESTIMATED AT 1M (INFERIOR TO 50 CM IN THE MOST
PROBABLE SCENARIO). IT COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT IF THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM WOULD THREATEN MORE DIRECTLY INHAMBANE.=

>

2021-02-18 12:02


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 181200
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/02/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 18/02/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (GUAMBE) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.3 S / 37.6 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM
IN NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 25
NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/19 AT 00 UTC:
23.9 S / 37.2 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 180 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/19 AT 12 UTC:
24.8 S / 36.5 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 210 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 180 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-18 07:54


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 180900
WARNING ATCG MIL 21S SIO 210218071321
2021021806 21S GUAMBE 002 01 155 04 SATL 060
T000 226S 0377E 050 R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 232S 0377E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 238S 0370E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 247S 0363E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 150 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 256S 0359E 085 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 285S 0374E 085 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 320S 0438E 070 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 210 SW QD 160 NW QD
T120 347S 0529E 055 R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 210 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 22.6S 37.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S 37.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 23.2S 37.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.8S 37.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 24.7S 36.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 25.6S 35.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 28.5S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 32.0S 43.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 34.7S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 37.7E.
18FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 141
NM WEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STEADILY IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH WEAK CYCLONIC BANDING FEATURES BECOMING EVIDENT WITHIN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WHICH IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCUATION CENTER (LLCC). IN LIGHT OF THE OBSCURATION OF THE LLCC AND THE LACK OF RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THOUGH AN ANALYSIS OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES IN AN 180348Z N-19 89GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE, LENT MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 (35KTS, PGTW) TO 3.5 (55KTS, FMEE), AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.3. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH A DEVELOPING POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC PROVIDING LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, MODERATE TO STRONG, NEARLY RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SSTS. TC 21S IS CURRENTLY ENSCONCED BETWEEN A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTER OVER NORTHERN MADACASGAR AND A SECONDARY STR CENTER OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AFRICA, RESULTING IN SLOW MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, THE EASTERN STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SUFFICIENTLY TO BECOME THE DOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM AND TURN TC 21S TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. AS THE STR MOVES SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48, TC 21S WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. AFTER TAU 72 THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 85 KTS BY TAU 48, THEN MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 72. THEREAFTER, INCREASING VWS WILL OFFSET THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LEADING TO SLOW WEAKENING. TC 21S WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96, AND BECOME A STORM-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 120. ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS CONCUR ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO BUT DISPLAY SIGNIFICANT CROSS TRACK UNCERTAINTY THOUGH TAU 48, WITH NAVGEM AND THE COAMPS-TC TAKING THE SYSTEM MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE, AND THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEPING THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. AFTER TAU 72, THE PACE AND STRENGTH OF THE INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERLIES RESULT IN EXTREMELY LARGE ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY, WITH THE GFS, UKMET AND ECMWF WELL OUT AHEAD (800NM) OF THE REMAINING MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACKS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF THROUGH TAU 48, BUT CLOSER TO THE NAVGEM THROUGH TAU 120. OVERALL THE JTWC FORECAST IS MUCH FASTER AFTER TAU 72 THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DUE TO THE VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.//
2121021200 229S 361E 25
2121021206 224S 353E 20
2121021212 221S 345E 20
2121021218 220S 347E 20
2121021300 221S 350E 20
2121021306 225S 351E 20
2121021312 229S 343E 20
2121021318 233S 338E 20
2121021400 233S 328E 20
2121021406 233S 323E 20
2121021412 231S 319E 20
2121021418 230S 322E 25
2121021500 228S 325E 25
2121021506 225S 332E 25
2121021512 223S 338E 25
2121021518 219S 340E 25
2121021600 216S 351E 25
2121021606 218S 358E 20
2121021612 217S 363E 20
2121021618 212S 366E 25
2121021700 211S 370E 25
2121021706 213S 373E 30
2121021712 215S 374E 40
2121021718 217S 374E 45
2121021800 222S 375E 45
2121021806 226S 377E 50
2121021806 226S 377E 50
NNNN

>

2021-02-18 07:53


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 22.6S 37.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S 37.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 23.2S 37.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.8S 37.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 24.7S 36.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 25.6S 35.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 28.5S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 32.0S 43.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 34.7S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 37.7E.
18FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 141
NM WEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A STEADILY IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH WEAK
CYCLONIC BANDING FEATURES BECOMING EVIDENT WITHIN THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST (CDO) WHICH IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCUATION CENTER
(LLCC). IN LIGHT OF THE OBSCURATION OF THE LLCC AND THE LACK OF
RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THOUGH AN ANALYSIS OF WEAK
LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES IN AN 180348Z N-19 89GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE,
LENT MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESIMATES RANGING
FROM T2.5 (35KTS, PGTW) TO 3.5 (55KTS, FMEE), AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF
T3.3. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
DEVELOPING POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC PROVIDING LOW (5-10
KTS) VWS, MODERATE TO STRONG, NEARLY RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-
30C) SSTS. TC 21S IS CURRENTLY ENSCONCED BETWEEN A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTER OVER NORTHERN MADACASGAR AND A
SECONDARY STR CENTER OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AFRICA, RESULTING IN SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, THE EASTERN STR IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD SUFFICIENTLY TO BECOME THE DOMINATE STEERING
MECHANISM AND TURN TC 21S TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. AS THE STR
MOVES SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48, TC 21S WILL ACCELERATE
SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. AFTER TAU 72
THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 85 KTS BY TAU 48, THEN MAINTAIN INTENSITY
THROUGH TAU 72. THEREAFTER, INCREASING VWS WILL OFFSET THE STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LEADING TO SLOW WEAKENING. TC 21S WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96, AND BECOME A STORM-FORCE
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 120. ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS CONCUR
ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO BUT DISPLAY SIGNIFICANT CROSS TRACK
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH TAU 48, WITH NAVGEM AND THE COAMPS-TC TAKING THE
SYSTEM MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE, AND THE GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPING THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. AFTER
TAU 72, THE PACE AND STRENGTH OF THE INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERLIES
RESULT IN EXTREMELY LARGE ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY, WITH THE GFS,
UKMET AND ECMWF WELL OUT AHEAD (800NM) OF THE REMAINING MEMBERS OF
THE CONSENSUS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACKS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF THROUGH
TAU 48, BUT CLOSER TO THE NAVGEM THROUGH TAU 120. OVERALL THE JTWC
FORECAST IS MUCH FASTER AFTER TAU 72 THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DUE
TO THE VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
182100Z AND 190900Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-18 06:08


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 180605
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/02/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 18/02/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (GUAMBE) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 37.9 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 330 NM
IN NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/18 AT 18 UTC:
23.4 S / 37.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/19 AT 06 UTC:
24.3 S / 36.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-18 01:12


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 180050
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/11/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 18/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.4 S / 37.4 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET TRENTE SEPT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 230 SO: 110 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 240

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/02/2021 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 240 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 19/02/2021 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 36.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SO: 140 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 65

36H: 19/02/2021 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 315 SO: 110 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 45 NO: 55

48H: 20/02/2021 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SO: 185 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 150 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 20/02/2021 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 305 SO: 185 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 21/02/2021 00 UTC: 27.4 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 315 SO: 220 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/02/2021 00 UTC: 30.3 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SO: 470 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SO: 325 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 55

120H: 23/02/2021 00 UTC: 32.8 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 325 SO: 400 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SO: 285 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 90

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5+ CI=3.0-

BIEN QUE A NOUVEAU PLUS SOUTENUE SUR LES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA
CONVECTION PROFONDE PRES DU CENTRE CONTINUE DE MONTRER BEAUCOUP DE
FLUCTUATIONS. EN L'ABSENCE D'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE RECENTE POUR EVALUER
L'ORGANISATION INTERNE DU SYSTEME ET DE DONNEES SCATTEROMETRIQUES
FIABLES (LA SCATSAT DE 1830Z MONTRE DES VENTS A 50 KT MAIS EN DONNEES
DOUTEUSES), L'INTENSITE EST LAISSEE A 45 KT AVEC UNE PRESSION
CENTRALE REVUE A LA BAISSE D'APRES LA RELATION DE COURTNEY-KNAFF.
L'ABSENCE D'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES EST AUSSI ASSOCIE A UNE INCERTITUDE
PLUS FORTE QUE LA NORMALE SUR LA POSITION DU CENTRE.

LE SYSTEME RESTE SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS OPPOSES: SUR LA
FACE NORD-EST DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX, IL EST EXPOSE A
UN FLUX DE SUD-EST ALORS QU'AU NORD-EST, UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE IMPRIME UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST. LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE,
PREVUE SE RECONSTITUER SUR MADAGASCAR, ORIENTANT LA TRAJECTOIRE
DAVANTAGE VERS LE SUD SUR SA FACADE OUEST, SEMBLE AVOIR COMMENCE A
PRENDRE LA MAIN SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR. LA PARTIE SUD DE CETTE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE EST TOUJOURS PREVUE SE RENFORCER QUELQUE PEU VENDREDI ET
SAMEDI, CE QUI A EU POUR CONSEQUENCE DE DECALER ASSEZ SENSIBLEMENT
LES GUIDANCES VERS L'OUEST. LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE SUIT CETTE
TENDANCE. AVEC LA PERSISTANCE D'UNE DORSALE SUR L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE,
CE DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT RESTER ASSEZ LENT. EN FIN DE SEMAINE, LA
PRESENCE D'UN PROFOND THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD DU CANAL
DEVRAIT FAVORISER UNE ACCELERATION DU DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST.
CETTE TRAJECTOIRE EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES PRINCIPALES GUIDANCES
NUMERIQUES EN ACCORD AVEC PLUSIEURS MEMBRES DE LA PREVISION
D'ENSEMBLE EUROPEENNE.

LE CISAILLEMENT DE SUD-EST SEMBLE S'ESTOMPER AU VUE DE L'EPANCHEMENT
DE CIRRUS SUR L'IMAGERIE SATELLITE QUI S'AMELIORE COTE SUD-EST.
L'ENVIRONNEMENT EST HUMIDE A TOUS NIVEAUX. SEULE LA CONVERGENCE DE
BASSES COUCHES RESTE ENCORE DEFICITAIRE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST
NOTAMMENT. GRADUELLEMENT, UNE INTENSIFICATION D'ABORD LENTE PUIS PLUS
FRANCHE DU SYSTEME EST ATTENDUE. CES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES ASSOCIEES
A DES EAUX CHAUDES, DEVRAIT PERMETTRE A GUAMBE D'ATTEINDRE LE STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL VOIRE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE, SI UNE
INTERACTION AVEC LES TERRES NE VIENT PAS ALTERER LE PROCESSUS
D'INTENSIFICATION. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, EN MARGE D'UN THALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST POURRAIT
PROGRESSIVEMENT SE RENFORCER ET ADVECTER DE L'AIR SEC DANS LE COEUR
INTERNE DU SYSTEME, CONDUISANT A SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT. LA VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME DE PLUS EN PLUS RAPIDE DANS LE SENS DU
CISAILLEMENT ENTRETIENT UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LE TIMING DE LA PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE SE MAINTIENT
EN PARALLELE COTE SUD. EN TOUTE FIN D'ECHEANCE UNE EVOLUTION
POST-TROP EST POSSIBLE EN FONCTION DU DEGRE D'INTERACTION AVEC LE JET
SUBTROPICAL.

LA PRESENTE PREVISION SE RAPPROCHE SENSIBLEMENT DES COTES
MOZAMBICAINES POUR LA FIN DE SEMAINE. GUAMBE A DE PLUS EN PLUS DE
CHANCE D'AFFECTER SENSIBLEMENT LES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES DU SUD
DU MOZAMBIQUE NOTAMMENT VENDREDI ET SAMEDI ENTRE VILANKULO AU NORD ET
XAI-XAI AU SUD: DE FORTES PLUIES POUVANT ATTEINDRE ET LOCALEMENT
DEPASSER LES 100 MM EN 24H SONT POSSIBLES SUR CES SECTEURS. EN
FONCTION DE LA TRAJECTOIRE FINALE DE GUAMBE, ELLES POURRAIENT
S'ETENDRE PLUS A L'OUEST JUSQU'A MAPUTO. BIEN QUE LES VENTS LES PLUS
FORTS ASSOCIES A GUAMBE DEVRAIENT PRINCIPALEMENT SE SITUER DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE EST DU SYSTEME, DES VENTS FORTS POUVANT ATTEINDRE 100
KM/H EN RAFALES SONT POSSIBLES A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR OU VENDREDI
MATIN. LE RISQUE DE SURCOTE EST GLOBALEMENT FAIBLE DANS LE SECTEUR
PUISQUE DANS LE SCENARIO DU PIRE, ELLE EST ESTIMEE A 1M (INF. A 50 CM
DANS LE SCENARIO LE PLUS PROBABLE). IL POURRAIT ETRE PLUS
SIGNIFICATIF SI LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME VENAIT A MENACER PLUS
DIRECTEMENT INHAMBANE.=

>

2021-02-18 01:12


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 180050
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/11/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.4 S / 37.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 230 SW: 110 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 240

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/18 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2021/02/19 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 36.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SW: 140 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 65

36H: 2021/02/19 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 315 SW: 110 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 55

48H: 2021/02/20 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SW: 185 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2021/02/20 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 305 SW: 185 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2021/02/21 00 UTC: 27.4 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 315 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/22 00 UTC: 30.3 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SW: 470 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 325 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2021/02/23 00 UTC: 32.8 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 325 SW: 400 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 285 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 90

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5+ CI=3.0-.

ALTHOUGH AGAIN MORE SUSTAINED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOT OF FLUCTUATIONS.
IN THE ABSENCE OF A RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE TO EVALUATE THE INTERNAL
ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND OF RELIABLE SCATTEROMETRIC DATA (THE
1830Z SCATSAT SHOWS WINDS AT 50 KT BUT AS DOUBTFUL DATA), THE
INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 45 KT WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE REVISED DOWNWARDS
ACCORDING TO THE COURTNEY-KNAFF RELATION. THE ABSENCE OF A MICROWAVE
IMAGE IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY ON THE
POSITION OF THE CENTER.

THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OPPOSITE DIRECTIONAL FLOWS:
ON THE NORTHEAST FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL GEOPOTENTIAL HIGHS, IT IS
EXPOSED TO A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, WHILE TO THE NORTHEAST, A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE IMPARTS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
EXPECTED TO RECONSTITUTE OVER MADAGASCAR, ORIENTING THE TRAJECTORY
MORE SOUTHWARD ON ITS WESTERN SIDE, SEEMS TO HAVE STARTED TO TAKE
OVER THE STEERING FLOW. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
TOWARDS THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND. WITH THE
PERSISTENCE OF A RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA, THIS SHIFT SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER SLOW. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL SHOULD FAVOR AN ACCELERATION
OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT. THIS TRAJECTORY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE MAIN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST.

THE SOUTHEASTERN SHEAR SEEMS TO FADE BASED ON THE RADIAL EXPANSION OF
CIRRUS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MOIST AT ALL LEVELS. ONLY THE LOW LEVELS CONVERGENCE
STILL LACKING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT IN PARTICULAR. GRADUALLY,
A SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY A MORE FRANK INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, COMBINED WITH
WARM WATERS, SHOULD ALLOW GUAMBE TO REACH THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE, OR EVEN AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, IF INTERACTION WITH THE
LAND AREAS DOES NOT ALTER THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD, ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, THE NORTHWESTERN
SECTOR SHEAR COULD PROGRESSIVELY STRENGTHEN AND ADVECT DRY AIR INTO
THE INTERNAL CORE OF THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO ITS WEAKENING. THE
INCREASINGLY RAPID SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN THE DIRECTION
OF SHEAR MAINTAINS AN UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE WEAKENING
PHASE. EXCELLENT UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
POLEWARDS. AT THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST A POST-TROPICAL EVOLUTION
IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET.

GUAMBE IS FORECAST TO MOVE MUCH CLOSER OF THE MOZAMBICAN COAST THAN
EXPECTED YESTERDAY. GUAMBE IS MORE AND MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT
SIGNIFICANTLY THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE,
ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN VILANKULO IN
THE NORTH AND XAI-XAI IN THE SOUTH: HEAVY RAINS THAT CAN REACH AND
LOCALLY EXCEED 100 MM IN 24 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE ON THESE SECTORS.
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRAJECTORY OF GUAMBE, THEY COULD EXTEND
FURTHER WEST TO MAPUTO. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
GUAMBE SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM,
STRONG WINDS OF UP TO 100 KM/H GUSTING ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY
EVENING OR FRIDAY MORNING. MORE SEVERE WINDS CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
PENDING ON THE NEAREST POINT APPROACH. THE RISK OF STORM SURGE IS
LIKELY TO BE LOW IN THE CONCERNED AREAS. IN THE WORST CASE, IT IS
ESTIMATED AROUND 1M (LESS THAN 50 CM IN THE MOST LIKELY CASE). SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT VALUE ARE POSSIBLE SPECIALLY IF THE SYSTEM WOULD
THREATEN MORE DIRECTLY INHAMBANE.=

>

2021-02-18 00:27


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 180024
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/02/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 18/02/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (GUAMBE) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.4 S / 37.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM
IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/18 AT 12 UTC:
23.1 S / 37.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/19 AT 00 UTC:
23.8 S / 36.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-17 21:28


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 172100
WARNING ATCG MIL 21S SIO 210217204440
2021021718 21S GUAMBE 001 01 165 03 SATL 050
T000 219S 0375E 045 R034 125 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 226S 0374E 050 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 233S 0369E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 238S 0364E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 245S 0357E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 266S 0356E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 286S 0380E 065 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 190 SW QD 170 NW QD
T120 307S 0433E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 21.9S 37.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 37.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 22.6S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 23.3S 36.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.8S 36.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 24.5S 35.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 26.6S 35.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 28.6S 38.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 30.7S 43.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 37.5E.
17FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
151 NM WEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.//
2121021200 229S 361E 25
2121021206 224S 353E 20
2121021212 221S 345E 20
2121021218 220S 347E 20
2121021300 221S 350E 20
2121021306 225S 351E 20
2121021312 229S 343E 20
2121021318 233S 338E 20
2121021400 233S 328E 20
2121021406 233S 323E 20
2121021412 231S 319E 20
2121021418 230S 322E 25
2121021500 228S 325E 25
2121021506 225S 332E 25
2121021512 223S 338E 25
2121021518 219S 340E 25
2121021600 216S 351E 25
2121021606 218S 358E 20
2121021612 217S 363E 20
2121021618 212S 366E 25
2121021700 211S 370E 25
2121021706 213S 373E 30
2121021712 216S 374E 40
2121021718 219S 375E 45
NNNN

>

2021-02-17 21:18


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170251ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 21.9S 37.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 37.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 22.6S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 23.3S 36.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.8S 36.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 24.5S 35.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 26.6S 35.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 28.6S 38.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 30.7S 43.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 37.5E.
17FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
151 NM WEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A DEVELOPING CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 171837Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM
(29-30C) SST VALUES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS
BASED ON A 171838Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWING A SWATH OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ADDITIONALLY, A 171827Z SCATSAT IMAGE
SHOWED 43-47 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 2.5-3.0 (35-45 KNOTS). THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC AND THE LACK OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MICROWAVE
IMAGERY AT THIS TIME. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. AFTER
TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WILL COMMENCE NEAR TAU 96 AND
CONTINUE AT TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS AT TAU 48. STEADY
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER TAU 72 AS VWS INCREASES AND SST VALUES
COOL TO 26-27C. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 170300).//
NNNN

>

2021-02-17 19:07


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 171849
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/11/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 17/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.2 S / 37.5 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES DEUX SUD ET TRENTE SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 205 SO: 110 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 240

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/02/2021 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 250 SO: 100 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 150 SO: 85 NO: 140

24H: 18/02/2021 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 295 SO: 110 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SO: 85 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 35

36H: 19/02/2021 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 335 SO: 305 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 19/02/2021 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 35.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 325 SO: 250 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 55

60H: 20/02/2021 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 350 SO: 215 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SO: 30 NO: 65

72H: 20/02/2021 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 305 SO: 215 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/02/2021 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 445 SO: 360 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 195 SO: 270 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75

120H: 22/02/2021 18 UTC: 33.5 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 545 SO: 630 NO: 445
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 350 NO: 280
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 80 SO: 90 NO: 120

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.0-.

LA CONVECTION TRES PROFONDE PRESENTE DANS LE SECTEUR NORD DU CENTRE A
PRESENTE D'IMPORTANTES FLUCTUATIONS DEPUIS LA FIN DE JOURNEE. APRES
UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT MARQUEE, UNE NOUVELLE POUSSEE IMPORTANTE
EST ENTRAIN DE SE METTRE EN PLACE. MALGRE CES FLUCTUATIONS, LA
DERNIERE PASS SMAP (1535Z) CONTINUE DE MONTRER DES VENTS FORTS
ATTEIGNANT 50 KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD. CES VENTS POUVANT ETRE
POTENTIELLEMENT CONTAMINES PAR LES FORTES PLUIES, L'INTENSITE ESTIMEE
ANALYSE EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK (40 KT) ET LA
DONNEE SMAP.

LE SYSTEME RESTE SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS OPPOSES: SUR LA
FACE NORD-EST DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX, LE SYSTEME EST
EXPOSE A UN FLUX DE SUD-EST ALORS QU'AU NORD-EST, UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE IMPRIME UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST. LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE,
PREVUE SE RECONSTITUER SUR MADAGASCAR, ORIENTANT LA TRAJECTOIRE
DAVANTAGE VERS LE SUD SUR SA FACADE OUEST, SEMBLE AVOIR COMMENCE A
PRENDRE LA MAIN SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR. SUR LES DERNIERS RUNS,
L'ENSEMBLE DE GUIDANCES ONT TENDANCE A RENFORCER LA PARTIE SUD DE
CETTE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48H, CE QUI A EU
POUR CONSEQUENCE DE DECALER ASSEZ SENSIBLEMENT LES GUIDANCES VERS
L'OUEST. LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE SUIT CETTE TENDANCE. AVEC LA
PERSISTANCE D'UNE DORSALE SUR L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE, CE DEPLACEMENT
DEVRAIT RESTER ASSEZ LENT. EN FIN DE SEMAINE, LA PRESENCE D'UN
PROFOND THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD DU CANAL DEVRAIT
FAVORISER UNE ACCELERATION DU DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST. CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE EST UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES PRINCIPALES GUIDANCES
AMERICAINES ET FRANCAISES EN ACCORD AVEC PLUSIEURS MEMBRES DE LA
PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE EUROPEENNE.

LE SYSTEME EST SOUMIS A UN CISAILLEMENT DE SUD-EST AU NORD DE LA
DORSALE D'ALTITUDE. CE CISAILLEMENT EST PREVU S'ESTOMPER AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 24H. L'ENVIRONNEMENT EST HUMIDE A TOUS NIVEAUX. LA
CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES, ACCENTUEE COTE POLAIRE PAR UNE POUSSEE
DE SUD ENCORE PRESENTE AUJOURD'HUI, N'EST EN REVANCHE PAS OPTIMALE DU
COTE NORD-EST DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX DE MOUSSON LE PLUS RAPIDE RESTANT
ASSEZ ELOIGNE POUR L'INSTANT, ATTIRE PAR LA ZONE DE BASSES PRESSIONS
S'ETIRANT VERS LE SUD DE MADAGASCAR, MAIS EN VOIE DE COMBLEMENT.
GRADUELLEMENT, UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS FRANCHE DU SYSTEME EST
PROBABLE. CES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES ASSOCIEES A DES EAUX CHAUDES,
DEVRAIT PERMETTRE A GUAMBE D'ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
VOIRE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. TOUTEFOIS, EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, EN
MARGE DU THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST POURRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE RENFORCER ET ADVECTER DE L'AIR
SEC DANS LE COEUR INTERNE DU SYSTEME, CONDUISANT A SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT, NEANMOINS ATTENUA PAR LA GRANDE VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME DANS LE SENS DU CISAILLEMENT.

LA PRESENTE PREVISION SE RAPPROCHE SENSIBLEMENT DES COTES
MOZAMBICAINES POUR LA FIN DE SEMAINE. GUAMBE A DE PLUS EN PLUS DE
CHANCE D'AFFECTER SENSIBLEMENT LES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES DU SUD
DU MOZAMBIQUE NOTAMMENT VENDREDI ET SAMEDI, NOTAMMENT ENTRE VILANKULO
AU NORD ET XAI-XAI AU SUD: DE FORTES PLUIES POUVANT ATTEINDRE ET
LOCALEMENT DEPASSER LES 100 MM EN 24H SONT POSSIBLES SUR CES
SECTEURS. EN FONCTION DE LA TRAJECTOIRE FINALE DE GUAMBE, ELLES
POURRAIENT S'ETENDRE PLUS A L'OUEST JUSQU'A MAPUTO. BIEN QUE LES
VENTS LES PLUS FORTS ASSOCIES A GUAMBE DEVRAIENT PRINCIPALEMENT SE
SITUER DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST DU SYSTEME, DES VENTS FORTS POUVANT
ATTEINDRE 100 KM/H EN RAFALES SONT POSSIBLES A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR
OU VENDREDI MATIN. LE RISQUE DE SURCOTE RESTE A PRECISER. IL POURRAIT
ETRE SIGNIFICATIF SI LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME VENAIT A MENACER PLUS
DIRECTEMENT INHAMBANE.=

>

2021-02-17 19:07


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 171849
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/11/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 37.5 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 205 SW: 110 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 240

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/18 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 250 SW: 100 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 140

24H: 2021/02/18 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 295 SW: 110 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SW: 85 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 35

36H: 2021/02/19 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 335 SW: 305 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2021/02/19 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 35.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 325 SW: 250 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 55

60H: 2021/02/20 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 350 SW: 215 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 65

72H: 2021/02/20 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 305 SW: 215 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/21 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 445 SW: 360 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 195 SW: 270 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75

120H: 2021/02/22 18 UTC: 33.5 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 545 SW: 630 NW: 445
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 350 NW: 280
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0-.

THE VERY DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE NORTH OF THE CENTER HAS SHOWN
LARGE FLUCTUATIONS SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AFTER A PHASE OF
MARKED WEAKENING, A NEW IMPORTANT BURST IS TAKING PLACE. DESPITE
THESE FLUCTUATIONS, THE LATEST SMAP PASS (1535Z) CONTINUES TO SHOW
STRONG WINDS REACHING 50 KT IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SINCE THESE
WINDS CAN BE POTENTIALLY CONTAMINATED BY HEAVY RAINFALL, THE
ESTIMATED INITIAL INTENSITY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES (40 KT) AND THE SMAP DATA.

THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OPPOSITE DIRECTIONAL FLOWS:
ON THE NORTHEAST FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL GEOPOTENTIAL HIGHS, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPOSED TO A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, WHILE TO THE NORTHEAST, A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IMPARTS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, EXPECTED TO RECONSTITUTE OVER MADAGASCAR, ORIENTING THE
TRAJECTORY MORE SOUTHWARD ON ITS WESTERN SIDE, SEEMS TO HAVE STARTED
TO TAKE OVER THE STEERING FLOW. ON THE LAST RUNS, THE SET OF
NUMERICAL GUIDANCES TEND TO REINFORCE THE SOUTHERN PART OF THIS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WHICH RESULTED IN
SHIFTING QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY THE FORECAST TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND. WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF A RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA, THIS SHIFT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER SLOW. AT THE
END OF THE WEEK, THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SOUTH OF
THE CHANNEL SHOULD FAVOR AN ACCELERATION OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT.
THIS TRAJECTORY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MAIN AMERICAN AND FRENCH
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE FORECAST.

THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE EFFECT OF A SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR NORTH OF THE
UPPER LEVELS RIDGE. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO FADE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MOIST AT ALL LEVELS. THE CONVERGENCE OF LOW
LAYERS, ACCENTUATED ON THE POLAR COAST BY A SOUTHERLY BURST STILL
PRESENT TODAY, IS NOT OPTIMAL ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
THE FASTEST MONSOON FLOW REMAINING QUITE DISTANT FOR THE MOMENT,
ATTRACTED BY THE ZONE OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM
MADAGASCAR, BUT IN THE PROCESS OF FILLING IN. GRADUALLY, A MORE
PRONOUNCED INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THESE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, COMBINED WITH WARM WATERS, SHOULD ALLOW GUAMBE TO REACH
THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR EVEN AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER, AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, ON THE EDGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH, THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR SHEAR COULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND
ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE INNER CORE OF THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO ITS
WEAKENING, ALTHOUGH THIS IS MITIGATED BY THE HIGH SPEED OF MOVEMENT
OF THE SYSTEM IN THE SHEAR DIRECTION.

THE PRESENT FORECAST IS MUCH CLOSER OF THE MOZAMBICAN COAST THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE. GUAMBE IS MORE AND MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT SIGNIFICANTLY
THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE, ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN VILANKULO IN THE NORTH AND
XAI-XAI IN THE SOUTH: HEAVY RAINS THAT CAN REACH AND LOCALLY EXCEED
100 MM IN 24 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE ON THESE SECTORS. DEPENDING ON THE
FINAL TRAJECTORY OF GUAMBE, THEY COULD EXTEND FURTHER WEST TO MAPUTO.
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUAMBE SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, STRONG WINDS OF UP TO 100
KM/H GUSTING ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY EVENING OR FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RISK OF STORM SURGE REMAINS TO BE SPECIFIED. IT COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT IF THE TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM WOULD THREATEN MORE
DIRECTLY INHAMBANE.

TRANSLATED WITH WWW.DEEPL.COM/TRANSLATOR (FREE VERSION)=

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2021-02-17 18:35


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 171834
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/02/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 17/02/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (GUAMBE) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 37.5 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/18 AT 06 UTC:
22.8 S / 37.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 75 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/18 AT 18 UTC:
23.4 S / 37.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

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