Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for DUJUAN-21 in Philippines, Palau from 17 Feb 2021 06:00 UTC to 22 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC

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Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DUJUAN-21

in Philippines, Palau

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

22/02 10:32 WTPQ20VHHH221045

22/02 07:33 WTPQ20VHHH220745

22/02 04:33 WTPQ20VHHH220445

22/02 02:58 WTPN51PGTW220300

22/02 02:53 WTPN31PGTW220300

22/02 02:43 WTPN51PGTW212100

22/02 02:43 WTPN51PGTW211500

22/02 02:43 WTPN31PGTW212100

22/02 02:43 WTPN31PGTW211500

22/02 01:02 WTKO20RKSL220000

22/02 00:40 WTPQ50RJTD220000

22/02 00:40 WTPQ20RJTD220000

21/02 21:45 WTPQ50RJTD212100

21/02 21:45 WTPQ20RJTD212100

21/02 19:40 WTPQ30RJTD211800

21/02 18:59 WTKO20RKSL211800

21/02 18:45 WTPQ50RJTD211800

21/02 18:45 WTPQ20RJTD211800

21/02 18:45 WTJP21RJTD211800

21/02 15:45 WTPQ50RJTD211500

21/02 15:45 WTPQ20RJTD211500

21/02 13:30 WTPQ30RJTD211200

21/02 12:57 WTKO20RKSL211200

21/02 12:45 WTPQ50RJTD211200

21/02 12:45 WTPQ20RJTD211200

21/02 12:45 WTJP21RJTD211200

21/02 09:50 WTPQ50RJTD210900

21/02 09:50 WTPQ20RJTD210900

21/02 07:20 WTPQ30RJTD210600

21/02 06:54 WTKO20RKSL210600

21/02 06:45 WTPQ50RJTD210600

21/02 06:45 WTPQ20RJTD210600

21/02 06:45 WTJP21RJTD210600

21/02 03:45 WTPQ50RJTD210300

21/02 03:45 WTPQ20RJTD210300

21/02 01:30 WTPQ30RJTD210000

21/02 00:56 WTKO20RKSL210000

21/02 00:45 WTPQ50RJTD210000

21/02 00:45 WTPQ20RJTD210000

21/02 00:45 WTJP21RJTD210000

20/02 21:45 WTPQ50RJTD202100

20/02 21:45 WTPQ20RJTD202100

20/02 19:25 WTPQ30RJTD201800

20/02 19:06 WTKO20RKSL201800

20/02 18:45 WTPQ50RJTD201800

20/02 18:45 WTPQ20RJTD201800

20/02 18:45 WTJP21RJTD201800

20/02 15:45 WTPQ50RJTD201500

20/02 15:45 WTPQ20RJTD201500

20/02 13:35 WTPQ30RJTD201200

20/02 13:06 WTKO20RKSL201200

20/02 12:45 WTPQ50RJTD201200

20/02 12:45 WTPQ20RJTD201200

20/02 12:45 WTJP21RJTD201200

20/02 09:45 WTPQ50RJTD200900

20/02 09:45 WTPQ20RJTD200900

20/02 07:40 WTPQ30RJTD200600

20/02 07:01 WTKO20RKSL200600

20/02 06:50 WTPQ50RJTD200600

20/02 06:45 WTPQ20RJTD200600

20/02 06:45 WTJP21RJTD200600

20/02 03:45 WTPQ50RJTD200300

20/02 03:45 WTPQ20RJTD200300

20/02 01:55 WTPQ30RJTD200000

20/02 01:08 WTKO20RKSL200000

20/02 00:50 WTPQ50RJTD200000

20/02 00:50 WTPQ20RJTD200000

20/02 00:50 WTJP21RJTD200000

19/02 21:45 WTPQ50RJTD192100

19/02 21:45 WTPQ20RJTD192100

19/02 19:35 WTPQ30RJTD191800

19/02 19:05 WTKO20RKSL191800

19/02 18:45 WTPQ50RJTD191800

19/02 18:45 WTPQ20RJTD191800

19/02 18:45 WTJP21RJTD191800

19/02 15:50 WTPQ50RJTD191500

19/02 15:50 WTPQ20RJTD191500

19/02 14:10 WTPQ30RJTD191200

19/02 13:01 WTKO20RKSL191200

19/02 12:45 WTPQ50RJTD191200

19/02 12:45 WTPQ20RJTD191200

19/02 12:45 WTJP21RJTD191200

19/02 09:45 WTPQ50RJTD190900

19/02 09:45 WTPQ20RJTD190900

19/02 08:29 WTPN51PGTW190900

19/02 08:26 WTPN31PGTW190900

19/02 07:25 WTPQ30RJTD190600

19/02 07:07 WTKO20RKSL190600

19/02 06:45 WTPQ50RJTD190600

19/02 06:45 WTPQ20RJTD190600

19/02 06:45 WTJP21RJTD190600

19/02 03:45 WTPQ50RJTD190300

19/02 03:45 WTPQ20RJTD190300

19/02 02:33 WTPN51PGTW190300

19/02 02:31 WTPN31PGTW190300

19/02 01:40 WTPQ30RJTD190000

19/02 01:06 WTKO20RKSL190000

19/02 00:45 WTPQ50RJTD190000

19/02 00:45 WTPQ20RJTD190000

19/02 00:45 WTJP21RJTD190000

18/02 21:45 WTPQ50RJTD182100

18/02 21:45 WTPQ20RJTD182100

18/02 20:20 WTPN51PGTW182100

18/02 20:17 WTPN31PGTW182100

18/02 19:55 WTPQ30RJTD181800

18/02 18:57 WTKO20RKSL181800

18/02 18:45 WTPQ50RJTD181800

18/02 18:45 WTPQ20RJTD181800

18/02 18:45 WTJP21RJTD181800

18/02 15:45 WTPQ50RJTD181500

18/02 15:45 WTPQ20RJTD181500

18/02 14:38 WTPN51PGTW181500

18/02 14:32 WTPN31PGTW181500

18/02 13:50 WTPQ30RJTD181200

18/02 12:58 WTKO20RKSL181200

18/02 12:45 WTPQ50RJTD181200

18/02 12:45 WTPQ20RJTD181200

18/02 12:45 WTJP21RJTD181200

18/02 09:45 WTPQ50RJTD180900

18/02 09:45 WTPQ20RJTD180900

18/02 08:55 WTPN51PGTW180900

18/02 08:48 WTPN31PGTW180900

18/02 08:05 WTPQ30RJTD180600

18/02 07:26 WTKO20RKSL180600

18/02 07:00 WTPQ50RJTD180600

18/02 07:00 WTPQ20RJTD180600

18/02 07:00 WTJP21RJTD180600

18/02 02:02 WTPN51PGTW180300

18/02 02:01 WTPN31PGTW180300

17/02 20:00 WTPN51PGTW172100

17/02 19:59 WTPN31PGTW172100

17/02 14:33 WTPN51PGTW171500

17/02 14:28 WTPN31PGTW171500

17/02 07:56 WTPN51PGTW170900

17/02 07:53 WTPN31PGTW170900

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 221045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 220900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION DUJUAN (2101) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (13.2
N) ONE TWO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (123.4 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 220745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 220600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION DUJUAN (2101) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (12.2 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (123.7 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 220445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 220300 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION DUJUAN (2101) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (11.6 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (124.5 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 220300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 210222015302
2021022200 01W DUJUAN 020 01 305 05 SATL SYNP 050
T000 104N 1257E 025
T012 116N 1235E 020
T024 122N 1217E 020
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 10.4N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 125.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 11.6N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 12.2N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 125.2E.
22FEB21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
373 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z
IS 10 FEET.
//
0121021412 60N1418E 15
0121021418 60N1413E 20
0121021500 60N1408E 20
0121021506 61N1403E 20
0121021512 62N1397E 20
0121021518 65N1385E 20
0121021600 67N1373E 20
0121021606 68N1364E 20
0121021612 68N1358E 20
0121021618 68N1349E 20
0121021700 67N1343E 20
0121021706 67N1337E 25
0121021712 67N1333E 30
0121021718 69N1329E 30
0121021800 71N1325E 35
0121021806 73N1321E 35
0121021812 72N1319E 35
0121021818 69N1318E 40
0121021900 67N1315E 45
0121021906 65N1313E 45
0121021912 63N1308E 45
0121021918 61N1309E 45
0121022000 64N1313E 35
0121022006 70N1316E 30
0121022012 78N1312E 30
0121022018 81N1306E 30
0121022100 85N1294E 30
0121022106 91N1281E 30
0121022112 96N1269E 30
0121022118 101N1261E 25
0121022200 104N1257E 25

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 10.4N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 125.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 11.6N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 12.2N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 125.2E.
22FEB21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
373 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
SITUATED WITHIN AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 25
KNOTS CONSISTENT WITH THE WEAKENING STRUCTURE AND NEARBY SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATIONS. TD 01W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS AND STEADILY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE DECREASES AND THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS OCCASIONALLY
WITH LAND. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SPEED AND DIRECTION OF THE DISSIPATING
SYSTEM, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 10
FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 212100
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 210221201934
2021022118 01W DUJUAN 019A 01 300 12 SATL SYNP 040
T000 102N 1259E 025
T012 116N 1235E 025
T024 123N 1214E 020
T036 123N 1198E 020
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 019 RELOCATED
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 019 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 10.2N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2N 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 11.6N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.3N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.3N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 125.3E.
21FEB21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
390 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.
//
0121021412 60N1418E 15
0121021418 60N1413E 20
0121021500 60N1408E 20
0121021506 61N1403E 20
0121021512 62N1397E 20
0121021518 65N1385E 20
0121021600 67N1373E 20
0121021606 68N1364E 20
0121021612 68N1358E 20
0121021618 68N1349E 20
0121021700 67N1343E 20
0121021706 67N1337E 25
0121021712 67N1333E 30
0121021718 69N1329E 30
0121021800 71N1325E 35
0121021806 73N1321E 35
0121021812 72N1319E 35
0121021818 69N1318E 40
0121021900 67N1315E 45
0121021906 65N1313E 45
0121021912 63N1308E 45
0121021918 61N1309E 45
0121022000 64N1313E 35
0121022006 70N1316E 30
0121022012 78N1312E 30
0121022018 81N1306E 30
0121022100 85N1294E 30
0121022106 91N1281E 30
0121022112 96N1269E 30
0121022118 102N1259E 25

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 211500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 210221124018
2021022112 01W DUJUAN 018 01 300 23 SATL SYNP 025
T000 103N 1258E 035 R034 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 117N 1235E 030
T024 127N 1212E 025
T036 131N 1195E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 10.3N 125.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 125.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 11.7N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.7N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 13.1N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 125.2E.
21FEB21. TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 382 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 211200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z
AND 221500Z.//
0121021412 60N1418E 15
0121021418 60N1413E 20
0121021500 60N1408E 20
0121021506 61N1403E 20
0121021512 62N1397E 20
0121021518 65N1385E 20
0121021600 67N1373E 20
0121021606 68N1364E 20
0121021612 68N1358E 20
0121021618 68N1349E 20
0121021700 67N1343E 20
0121021706 67N1337E 25
0121021712 67N1333E 30
0121021718 69N1329E 30
0121021800 71N1325E 35
0121021806 73N1321E 35
0121021812 72N1319E 35
0121021818 69N1318E 40
0121021900 67N1315E 45
0121021906 65N1313E 45
0121021912 63N1308E 45
0121021918 61N1309E 45
0121022000 64N1313E 35
0121022006 70N1316E 30
0121022012 78N1312E 30
0121022018 81N1306E 30
0121022100 85N1294E 30
0121022106 91N1278E 35
0121022112 103N1258E 35

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 019 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 019 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 10.2N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2N 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 11.6N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.3N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.3N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 125.3E.
21FEB21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
390 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: RELOCATED 211200Z POSITION OF TD
01W APPROXIMATELY 70 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY-
ANALYZED POSITION BASED ON NEWLY AVAILABLE SATELLITE MICROWAVE AND
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 10.3N 125.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 125.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 11.7N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.7N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 13.1N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 125.2E.
21FEB21. TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 382 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 211200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z
AND 221500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 220000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 16
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM 2101 DUJUAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 220000UTC 10.8N 125.7E
MOVEMENT N 10KT
PRES/VMAX 1004HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220000UTC 11N 126E
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1006HPA =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220000UTC 11N 126E
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1006HPA =

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 212100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 212100UTC 10.5N 126.4E POOR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 220900UTC 11.5N 123.1E 45NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 222100UTC 12.1N 121.1E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 212100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 212100UTC 10.5N 126.4E POOR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 222100UTC 12.1N 121.1E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DUJUAN IS LOCATED AT 10.5N, 126.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LAND AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 211800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 15
NAME 2101 DUJUAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 211800UTC 10.1N 126.2E
MOVEMENT WNW 12KT
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 220600UTC 11.1N 123.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211800UTC 10.5N 126.9E POOR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 220600UTC 11.4N 123.6E 45NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 221800UTC 12.0N 121.4E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211800UTC 10.5N 126.9E POOR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 221800UTC 12.0N 121.4E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 211800
WARNING 211800.
WARNING VALID 221800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2101 DUJUAN (2101) 1002 HPA
AT 10.5N 126.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10
KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 11.4N 123.6E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 12.0N 121.4E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 211500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211500UTC 09.9N 127.3E POOR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 220300UTC 11.3N 124.5E 45NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 221500UTC 12.4N 122.0E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 211500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211500UTC 09.9N 127.3E POOR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 221500UTC 12.4N 122.0E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DUJUAN IS LOCATED AT 9.7N, 127.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 211200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14
NAME 2101 DUJUAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 211200UTC 9.7N 127.4E
MOVEMENT WNW 15KT
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 220000UTC 10.7N 124.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 09.7N 127.9E POOR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 220000UTC 11.0N 125.4E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 221200UTC 12.2N 122.4E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 09.7N 127.9E POOR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 12.2N 122.4E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 211200
WARNING 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2101 DUJUAN (2101) 1002 HPA
AT 09.7N 127.9E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 11.0N 125.4E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 12.2N 122.4E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 210900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210900UTC 09.5N 128.5E POOR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 212100UTC 11.2N 125.6E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 220900UTC 12.7N 122.7E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 210900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210900UTC 09.5N 128.5E POOR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 220900UTC 12.7N 122.7E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DUJUAN IS LOCATED AT 9.4N, 128.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24.
THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE PHILIPPINES BY FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LAND AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 210600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13
NAME 2101 DUJUAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 210600UTC 9.2N 128.8E
MOVEMENT NW 14KT
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 211800UTC 10.8N 125.2E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
24HR
POSITION 220600UTC 12.5N 122.5E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210600UTC 09.4N 128.9E POOR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 211800UTC 11.1N 126.1E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 220600UTC 12.5N 122.9E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210600UTC 09.4N 128.9E POOR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 220600UTC 12.5N 122.9E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 210600
WARNING 210600.
WARNING VALID 220600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2101 DUJUAN (2101) 1000 HPA
AT 09.4N 128.9E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 11.1N 126.1E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 12.5N 122.9E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 210300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210300UTC 09.2N 129.3E POOR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 211500UTC 10.7N 126.2E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 220300UTC 12.3N 123.4E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 210300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210300UTC 09.2N 129.3E POOR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 220300UTC 12.3N 123.4E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DUJUAN IS LOCATED AT 9.0N, 129.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, STRONG VWS AND
DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS HAVE
GATHERED AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24.
THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE PHILIPPINES BY FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LAND AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 210000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12
NAME 2101 DUJUAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 210000UTC 8.5N 129.5E
MOVEMENT NW 18KT
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 211200UTC 9.8N 126.1E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
24HR
POSITION 220000UTC 11.3N 123.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 09.0N 129.3E POOR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 211200UTC 10.3N 126.9E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 220000UTC 11.9N 124.1E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 09.0N 129.3E POOR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 220000UTC 11.9N 124.1E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 210000
WARNING 210000.
WARNING VALID 220000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2101 DUJUAN (2101) 1000 HPA
AT 09.0N 129.3E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 10.3N 126.9E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 11.9N 124.1E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 202100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 202100UTC 08.6N 129.3E POOR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 212100UTC 11.4N 124.5E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 202100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 202100UTC 08.6N 129.3E POOR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 212100UTC 11.4N 124.5E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DUJUAN IS LOCATED AT 8.1N, 129.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS
DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LAND AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 201800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11
NAME 2101 DUJUAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 201800UTC 7.7N 130.5E
MOVEMENT WNW 7KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 210600UTC 9.0N 127.3E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
24HR
POSITION 211800UTC 10.1N 124.9E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
36HR
POSITION 220600UTC 11.2N 122.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201800UTC 08.1N 129.3E POOR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 211800UTC 11.3N 124.7E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201800UTC 08.1N 129.3E POOR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 211800UTC 11.3N 124.7E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 201800
WARNING 201800.
WARNING VALID 211800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2101 DUJUAN (2101) 1000 HPA
AT 08.1N 129.3E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 11.3N 124.7E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 201500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201500UTC 07.7N 129.5E POOR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 211500UTC 11.0N 125.2E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 221200UTC 12.7N 121.3E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 201500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201500UTC 07.7N 129.5E POOR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 211500UTC 11.0N 125.2E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 221200UTC 12.7N 121.3E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DUJUAN IS LOCATED AT 7.4N, 129.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 201200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10
NAME 2101 DUJUAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 201200UTC 7.5N 130.9E
MOVEMENT W 6KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 210000UTC 8.5N 128.4E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
24HR
POSITION 211200UTC 9.5N 126.2E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
36HR
POSITION 220000UTC 10.6N 123.7E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
48HR
POSITION 221200UTC 11.6N 121.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 07.4N 129.8E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 211200UTC 10.7N 125.5E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 221200UTC 12.7N 121.3E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 07.4N 129.8E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 211200UTC 10.7N 125.5E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 221200UTC 12.7N 121.3E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 201200
WARNING 201200.
WARNING VALID 211200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2101 DUJUAN (2101) 1000 HPA
AT 07.4N 129.8E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 10.7N 125.5E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 12.7N 121.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 200900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200900UTC 07.4N 130.0E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 210900UTC 10.1N 125.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 220600UTC 11.8N 121.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 230600UTC 13.1N 118.5E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 200900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200900UTC 07.4N 130.0E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 210900UTC 10.1N 125.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 220600UTC 11.8N 121.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 230600UTC 13.1N 118.5E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DUJUAN IS LOCATED AT 7.4N, 129.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND STRONG VWS.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 200600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9
NAME 2101 DUJUAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 200600UTC 7.0N 131.6E
MOVEMENT NNE 6KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 201800UTC 7.9N 129.4E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
24HR
POSITION 210600UTC 9.1N 127.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
36HR
POSITION 211800UTC 9.9N 125.0E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
48HR
POSITION 220600UTC 11.2N 122.7E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200600UTC 07.4N 129.9E POOR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 210600UTC 09.9N 126.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 220600UTC 11.8N 121.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 230600UTC 13.1N 118.5E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200600UTC 07.4N 129.9E POOR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 210600UTC 09.9N 126.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 220600UTC 11.8N 121.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 230600UTC 13.1N 118.5E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 200600
WARNING 200600.
WARNING VALID 210600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2101 DUJUAN (2101) 998 HPA
AT 07.4N 129.9E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 09.9N 126.1E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 11.8N 121.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 13.1N 118.5E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 200300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200300UTC 07.2N 130.0E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 210300UTC 10.0N 126.6E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 220000UTC 11.6N 122.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 230000UTC 12.3N 118.2E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 200300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200300UTC 07.2N 130.0E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 210300UTC 10.0N 126.6E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 220000UTC 11.6N 122.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 230000UTC 12.3N 118.2E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DUJUAN IS LOCATED AT 6.8N, 130.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 200000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8
NAME 2101 DUJUAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 200000UTC 6.4N 131.3E
MOVEMENT E 15KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 201200UTC 7.3N 129.3E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
24HR
POSITION 210000UTC 8.3N 127.6E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
36HR
POSITION 211200UTC 9.2N 125.9E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
48HR
POSITION 220000UTC 10.3N 123.5E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
72HR
POSITION 230000UTC 12.3N 118.7E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 06.8N 130.0E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 210000UTC 09.6N 127.2E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 220000UTC 11.6N 122.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 230000UTC 12.3N 118.2E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 06.8N 130.0E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 210000UTC 09.6N 127.2E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 220000UTC 11.6N 122.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 230000UTC 12.3N 118.2E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 200000
WARNING 200000.
WARNING VALID 210000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2101 DUJUAN (2101) 998 HPA
AT 06.8N 130.0E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 09.6N 127.2E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 11.6N 122.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 12.3N 118.2E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 192100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 192100UTC 06.7N 130.0E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 90NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 202100UTC 09.1N 128.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 211800UTC 11.8N 123.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 221800UTC 12.3N 119.2E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 192100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 192100UTC 06.7N 130.0E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 90NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 202100UTC 09.1N 128.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 211800UTC 11.8N 123.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 221800UTC 12.3N 119.2E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DUJUAN IS LOCATED AT 6.4N, 129.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL HIT THE PHILIPPINES BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL
FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS
AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 191800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7
NAME 2101 DUJUAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 191800UTC 6.4N 129.8E
MOVEMENT SSE 13KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 200600UTC 7.4N 129.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
24HR
POSITION 201800UTC 8.5N 127.2E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
36HR
POSITION 210600UTC 9.8N 125.4E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
48HR
POSITION 211800UTC 11.0N 123.3E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
72HR
POSITION 221800UTC 12.8N 119.3E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
96HR
POSITION 231800UTC 14.3N 116.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 06.4N 129.9E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 90NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 201800UTC 08.7N 128.2E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 211800UTC 11.8N 123.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 221800UTC 12.3N 119.2E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 06.4N 129.9E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 90NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 201800UTC 08.7N 128.2E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 211800UTC 11.8N 123.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 221800UTC 12.3N 119.2E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 191800
WARNING 191800.
WARNING VALID 201800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2101 DUJUAN (2101) 998 HPA
AT 06.4N 129.9E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 08.7N 128.2E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 11.8N 123.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 12.3N 119.2E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 191500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191500UTC 07.0N 129.5E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 90NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 201500UTC 08.0N 128.3E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 211200UTC 11.4N 124.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 221200UTC 12.8N 121.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 231200UTC 14.2N 119.0E 260NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 191500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191500UTC 07.0N 129.5E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 90NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 201500UTC 08.0N 128.3E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 211200UTC 11.4N 124.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 221200UTC 12.8N 121.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DUJUAN IS LOCATED AT 7.0N, 129.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND STRONG VWS.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. GPM/GMI
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL HIT THE PHILIPPINES BY FT60. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL
FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP
AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL
FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, LAND AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 191200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6
NAME 2101 DUJUAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 191200UTC 7.0N 129.6E
MOVEMENT W 6KT
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 200000UTC 7.2N 129.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
24HR
POSITION 201200UTC 7.9N 128.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 210000UTC 9.0N 126.3E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 211200UTC 10.3N 124.2E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
72HR
POSITION 221200UTC 12.5N 120.1E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
96HR
POSITION 231200UTC 14.0N 117.3E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
120HR
POSITION 241200UTC 14.8N 116.2E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191200UTC 07.0N 129.6E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 90NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 201200UTC 07.9N 128.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 211200UTC 11.4N 124.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 221200UTC 12.8N 121.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 231200UTC 14.2N 119.0E 260NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191200UTC 07.0N 129.6E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 90NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 201200UTC 07.9N 128.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 211200UTC 11.4N 124.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 221200UTC 12.8N 121.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 191200
WARNING 191200.
WARNING VALID 201200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2101 DUJUAN (2101) 998 HPA
AT 07.0N 129.6E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 07.9N 128.8E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 11.4N 124.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 12.8N 121.1E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 14.2N 119.0E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 190900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190900UTC 07.0N 129.8E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 90NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 200900UTC 07.6N 129.0E 57NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 210600UTC 10.2N 125.7E 105NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 220600UTC 12.4N 121.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 230600UTC 14.1N 119.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 240600UTC 15.3N 118.7E 320NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 190900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190900UTC 07.0N 129.8E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 90NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 200900UTC 07.6N 129.0E 57NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 210600UTC 10.2N 125.7E 105NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 220600UTC 12.4N 121.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 190900
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 210219080636
2021021906 01W DUJUAN 009 01 270 10 SATL 060
T000 072N 1298E 045 R034 175 NE QD 065 SE QD 170 SW QD 190 NW QD
T012 073N 1287E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 180 NW QD
T024 078N 1275E 050 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
T036 088N 1262E 045 R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 101N 1245E 040 R034 115 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 119N 1210E 035 R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 134N 1183E 025
T120 141N 1154E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 7.2N 129.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.2N 129.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 7.3N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 7.8N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 8.8N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 10.1N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 11.9N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.4N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.1N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 7.2N 129.5E.
19FEB21. TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 682
NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.
//
0121021412 60N1418E 15
0121021418 60N1413E 20
0121021500 60N1408E 20
0121021506 61N1403E 20
0121021512 62N1397E 20
0121021518 65N1385E 20
0121021600 67N1373E 20
0121021606 68N1364E 20
0121021612 68N1358E 20
0121021618 68N1349E 20
0121021700 67N1343E 20
0121021706 67N1337E 25
0121021712 67N1333E 30
0121021718 69N1329E 30
0121021800 71N1325E 35
0121021806 73N1321E 35
0121021812 72N1319E 35
0121021818 72N1316E 40
0121021900 72N1308E 45
0121021906 72N1298E 45

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 7.2N 129.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.2N 129.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 7.3N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 7.8N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 8.8N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 10.1N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 11.9N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.4N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.1N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 7.2N 129.5E.
19FEB21. TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 682
NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DUJUAN IS LOCATED AT 7.0N, 130.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM
INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVE BECOME OBSCURE. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH INCREASED VWS, LAND AND LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 190600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5
NAME 2101 DUJUAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 190600UTC 7.1N 130.4E
MOVEMENT W 14KT
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 191800UTC 7.5N 129.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 200600UTC 8.0N 128.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 201800UTC 8.7N 127.1E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 210600UTC 9.8N 125.1E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
72HR
POSITION 220600UTC 12.0N 121.0E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
96HR
POSITION 230600UTC 13.7N 117.9E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
120HR
POSITION 240600UTC 14.8N 116.4E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 07.0N 130.5E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 90NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 07.1N 129.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 210600UTC 10.2N 125.7E 105NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 220600UTC 12.4N 121.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 230600UTC 14.1N 119.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 240600UTC 15.3N 118.7E 320NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 07.0N 130.5E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 90NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 07.1N 129.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 210600UTC 10.2N 125.7E 105NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 220600UTC 12.4N 121.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 190600
WARNING 190600.
WARNING VALID 200600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2101 DUJUAN (2101) 996 HPA
AT 07.0N 130.5E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 07.1N 129.2E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 10.2N 125.7E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 12.4N 121.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 14.1N 119.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 15.3N 118.7E WITH 320 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 190300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190300UTC 07.0N 131.1E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 90NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 200300UTC 07.1N 129.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 210000UTC 09.7N 126.8E 105NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 220000UTC 11.7N 122.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 230000UTC 13.0N 120.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 240000UTC 14.1N 119.4E 280NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 190300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190300UTC 07.0N 131.1E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 90NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 200300UTC 07.1N 129.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 210000UTC 09.7N 126.8E 105NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 220000UTC 11.7N 122.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 190300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 210219015350
2021021900 01W DUJUAN 008 01 270 04 SATL 050
T000 072N 1312E 045 R034 170 NE QD 040 SE QD 175 SW QD 200 NW QD
T012 072N 1302E 050 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 050 SE QD 110 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 075N 1292E 055 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 070 SE QD 110 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 081N 1278E 055 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 080 SE QD 100 SW QD 180 NW QD
T048 090N 1261E 050 R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 110N 1225E 040 R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 130N 1193E 030
T120 149N 1167E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 7.2N 131.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.2N 131.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 7.2N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 7.5N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 8.1N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 9.0N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 11.0N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 13.0N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 14.9N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 7.2N 130.9E.
19FEB21. TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 747
NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 190000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z,
192100Z AND 200300Z.//
0121021412 60N1418E 15
0121021418 60N1413E 20
0121021500 60N1408E 20
0121021506 61N1403E 20
0121021512 62N1397E 20
0121021518 65N1385E 20
0121021600 67N1373E 20
0121021606 68N1364E 20
0121021612 68N1358E 20
0121021618 68N1349E 20
0121021700 67N1343E 20
0121021706 67N1337E 25
0121021712 67N1333E 30
0121021718 69N1329E 30
0121021800 71N1325E 35
0121021806 73N1321E 35
0121021812 72N1319E 35
0121021818 72N1316E 40
0121021900 72N1312E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 7.2N 131.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.2N 131.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 7.2N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 7.5N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 8.1N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 9.0N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 11.0N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 13.0N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 14.9N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 7.2N 130.9E.
19FEB21. TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 747
NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 190000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z,
192100Z AND 200300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DUJUAN IS LOCATED AT 7.0N, 131.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED
FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA
ESTIMATED FROM SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM
INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH INCREASED VWS, LAND AND LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 190000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4
NAME 2101 DUJUAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 190000UTC 7.2N 131.2E
MOVEMENT W 8KT
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 191200UTC 7.4N 130.2E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
24HR
POSITION 200000UTC 7.7N 129.1E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 201200UTC 8.3N 127.8E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 210000UTC 9.3N 126.0E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 220000UTC 11.5N 122.0E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
96HR
POSITION 230000UTC 13.3N 118.5E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
120HR
POSITION 240000UTC 14.6N 116.7E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 07.0N 131.7E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 07.0N 129.8E 57NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 210000UTC 09.7N 126.8E 105NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 220000UTC 11.7N 122.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 230000UTC 13.0N 120.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 240000UTC 14.1N 119.4E 280NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 07.0N 131.7E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 07.0N 129.8E 57NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 210000UTC 09.7N 126.8E 105NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 220000UTC 11.7N 122.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 190000
WARNING 190000.
WARNING VALID 200000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2101 DUJUAN (2101) 996 HPA
AT 07.0N 131.7E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 07.0N 129.8E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 09.7N 126.8E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 11.7N 122.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 13.0N 120.5E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 14.1N 119.4E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 182100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 182100UTC 07.1N 131.7E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 192100UTC 06.8N 130.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 201800UTC 09.0N 127.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 211800UTC 11.4N 123.6E 180NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 221800UTC 12.6N 121.2E 260NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 231800UTC 13.3N 119.7E 360NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 182100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 182100UTC 07.1N 131.7E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 192100UTC 06.8N 130.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 201800UTC 09.0N 127.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 211800UTC 11.4N 123.6E 180NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 182100
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 210218192201
2021021818 01W DUJUAN 007 01 270 02 SATL 050
T000 072N 1317E 035 R034 170 NE QD 040 SE QD 175 SW QD 245 NW QD
T012 071N 1308E 040 R034 220 NE QD 070 SE QD 130 SW QD 240 NW QD
T024 072N 1298E 045 R034 170 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 076N 1287E 050 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 090 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 085N 1271E 045 R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 104N 1234E 035 R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 125N 1198E 030
T120 147N 1170E 025
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 7.3N 131.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.3N 131.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 7.3N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 7.3N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 7.6N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 8.2N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 10.2N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.1N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 14.3N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 7.3N 131.6E.
18FEB21. TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 772
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.
//
0121021412 60N1418E 15
0121021418 60N1413E 20
0121021500 60N1408E 20
0121021506 61N1403E 20
0121021512 62N1397E 20
0121021518 65N1385E 20
0121021600 67N1373E 20
0121021606 68N1364E 20
0121021612 68N1358E 20
0121021618 68N1349E 20
0121021700 67N1343E 20
0121021706 67N1337E 25
0121021712 67N1333E 30
0121021718 69N1329E 30
0121021800 70N1325E 35
0121021806 73N1321E 35
0121021812 73N1318E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 7.3N 131.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.3N 131.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 7.3N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 7.3N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 7.6N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 8.2N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 10.2N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.1N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 14.3N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 7.3N 131.6E.
18FEB21. TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 772
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 181200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z
AND 191500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DUJUAN IS LOCATED AT 7.1N, 131.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS
STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE
FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. METOP-A/MHS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT60 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH INCREASED VWS, LAND AND LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 181800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3
NAME 2101 DUJUAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 181800UTC 7.3N 131.6E
MOVEMENT SW 3KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 190600UTC 7.4N 130.6E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
24HR
POSITION 191800UTC 7.5N 129.7E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
36HR
POSITION 200600UTC 8.0N 128.5E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 201800UTC 8.8N 126.8E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 211800UTC 11.0N 122.9E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
96HR
POSITION 221800UTC 12.8N 119.2E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
120HR
POSITION 231800UTC 14.4N 117.0E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 07.1N 131.8E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 06.8N 130.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 201800UTC 09.0N 127.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 211800UTC 11.4N 123.6E 180NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 221800UTC 12.6N 121.2E 260NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 231800UTC 13.3N 119.7E 360NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 07.1N 131.8E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 06.8N 130.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 201800UTC 09.0N 127.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 211800UTC 11.4N 123.6E 180NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 181800
WARNING 181800.
WARNING VALID 191800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2101 DUJUAN (2101) 996 HPA
AT 07.1N 131.8E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 06.8N 130.0E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 09.0N 127.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 11.4N 123.6E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 12.6N 121.2E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 13.3N 119.7E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 181500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181500UTC 07.2N 131.9E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 191500UTC 07.0N 130.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 201200UTC 08.5N 128.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 211200UTC 10.8N 124.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 221200UTC 12.0N 120.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 231200UTC 12.5N 118.3E 240NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 181500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181500UTC 07.2N 131.9E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 191500UTC 07.0N 130.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 201200UTC 08.5N 128.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 211200UTC 10.8N 124.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 181500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 210218133726
2021021812 01W DUJUAN 006 01 270 03 SATL 060
T000 073N 1318E 035 R034 085 NE QD 045 SE QD 060 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 073N 1312E 040 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 073N 1300E 045 R034 150 NE QD 070 SE QD 100 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 076N 1290E 050 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
T048 082N 1275E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 120 NW QD
T072 102N 1238E 040 R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 121N 1202E 030
T120 143N 1169E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 7.3N 131.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.3N 131.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 7.3N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 7.3N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 7.6N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 8.2N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 10.2N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.1N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 14.3N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 7.3N 131.6E.
18FEB21. TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 772
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.
//
0121021412 60N1418E 15
0121021418 60N1413E 20
0121021500 60N1408E 20
0121021506 61N1403E 20
0121021512 62N1397E 20
0121021518 65N1385E 20
0121021600 67N1373E 20
0121021606 68N1364E 20
0121021612 68N1358E 20
0121021618 68N1349E 20
0121021700 67N1343E 20
0121021706 67N1337E 25
0121021712 67N1333E 30
0121021718 69N1329E 30
0121021800 70N1325E 35
0121021806 73N1321E 35
0121021812 73N1318E 35

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 7.3N 131.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.3N 131.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 7.3N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 7.3N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 7.6N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 8.2N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 10.2N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.1N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 14.3N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 7.3N 131.6E.
18FEB21. TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 772
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DUJUAN IS LOCATED AT 7.4N, 131.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM
INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. METOP-A/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT36. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT36 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT60 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH INCREASED VWS, LAND AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 181200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2
NAME 2101 DUJUAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 181200UTC 7.4N 131.8E
MOVEMENT W 4KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 190000UTC 7.5N 131.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
24HR
POSITION 191200UTC 7.7N 130.2E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
36HR
POSITION 200000UTC 7.9N 129.1E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 201200UTC 8.6N 127.7E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 211200UTC 10.6N 124.0E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
96HR
POSITION 221200UTC 12.4N 120.0E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
120HR
POSITION 231200UTC 14.3N 117.2E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 07.4N 131.9E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 07.0N 130.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 201200UTC 08.5N 128.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 211200UTC 10.8N 124.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 221200UTC 12.0N 120.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 231200UTC 12.5N 118.3E 240NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 07.4N 131.9E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 07.0N 130.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 201200UTC 08.5N 128.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 211200UTC 10.8N 124.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 181200
WARNING 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2101 DUJUAN (2101) 996 HPA
AT 07.4N 131.9E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 07.0N 130.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 08.5N 128.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 10.8N 124.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 12.0N 120.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 12.5N 118.3E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 180900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180900UTC 07.4N 132.0E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 190900UTC 07.2N 130.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 200600UTC 07.8N 128.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 210600UTC 10.3N 125.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 220600UTC 11.5N 121.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 230600UTC 13.0N 118.4E 280NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 180900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180900UTC 07.4N 132.0E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 190900UTC 07.2N 130.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 200600UTC 07.8N 128.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 210600UTC 10.3N 125.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 180900
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 210218080602
2021021806 01W DUJUAN 005 01 305 05 SATL 030
T000 073N 1321E 035 R034 085 NE QD 045 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 076N 1314E 040 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 076N 1306E 045 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 076N 1294E 050 R050 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 081N 1280E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 099N 1247E 040 R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 117N 1209E 030
T120 145N 1166E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 7.3N 132.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.3N 132.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 7.6N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 7.6N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 7.6N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 8.1N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 9.9N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 11.7N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.5N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 7.4N 131.9E.
18FEB21. TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 787
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.
//
0121021412 60N1418E 15
0121021418 60N1413E 20
0121021500 60N1408E 20
0121021506 61N1403E 20
0121021512 62N1397E 20
0121021518 65N1385E 20
0121021600 67N1373E 20
0121021606 68N1364E 20
0121021612 68N1358E 20
0121021618 68N1349E 20
0121021700 67N1343E 20
0121021706 67N1337E 25
0121021712 67N1333E 30
0121021718 69N1329E 30
0121021800 70N1325E 35
0121021806 73N1321E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 7.3N 132.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.3N 132.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 7.6N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 7.6N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 7.6N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 8.1N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 9.9N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 11.7N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.5N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 7.4N 131.9E.
18FEB21. TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 787
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 7.0N, 132.6E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(DUJUAN) STATUS. TS DUJUAN IS LOCATED AT 7.4N, 132.2E. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM
INTENSIFICATION.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP,
LAND AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT96
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND, DRY AIR AND REDUCED
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 180600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1
NAME 2101 DUJUAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 180600UTC 7.3N 132.2E
MOVEMENT NW 5KT
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 181800UTC 7.4N 131.4E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT
24HR
POSITION 190600UTC 7.6N 130.6E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
36HR
POSITION 191800UTC 7.8N 129.8E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
48HR
POSITION 200600UTC 8.0N 128.7E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
72HR
POSITION 210600UTC 10.4N 125.2E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
96HR
POSITION 220600UTC 11.8N 121.1E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT
120HR
POSITION 230600UTC 13.4N 118.4E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 07.4N 132.2E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 190600UTC 07.5N 130.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 200600UTC 07.8N 128.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 210600UTC 10.3N 125.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 220600UTC 11.5N 121.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 230600UTC 13.0N 118.4E 280NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2101 DUJUAN (2101) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 07.4N 132.2E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 190600UTC 07.5N 130.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 200600UTC 07.8N 128.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 210600UTC 10.3N 125.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 180600
WARNING 180600.
WARNING VALID 190600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2101 DUJUAN (2101) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
998 HPA
AT 07.4N 132.2E CAROLINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 07.5N 130.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 07.8N 128.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 10.3N 125.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 11.5N 121.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 13.0N 118.4E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 180300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 210218011354
2021021800 01W ONE 004 01 290 03 SATL 020
T000 070N 1326E 035 R034 085 NE QD 045 SE QD 065 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 073N 1320E 040 R034 200 NE QD 060 SE QD 150 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 075N 1311E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 070 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 200 NW QD
T036 075N 1302E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 070 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 190 NW QD
T048 077N 1291E 055 R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
T072 093N 1256E 050 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T096 113N 1214E 040 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 135N 1175E 030
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 7.0N 132.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.0N 132.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 7.3N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 7.5N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 7.5N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 7.7N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 9.3N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 11.3N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 13.5N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 7.1N 132.4E.
18FEB21. TROPICAL STORM 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 419 NM
EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
180000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z
AND 190300Z.//
0121021412 60N1418E 15
0121021418 60N1413E 20
0121021500 60N1408E 20
0121021506 61N1403E 20
0121021512 62N1397E 20
0121021518 65N1385E 20
0121021600 67N1373E 20
0121021606 68N1364E 20
0121021612 68N1358E 20
0121021618 68N1349E 20
0121021700 67N1343E 20
0121021706 67N1337E 25
0121021712 67N1333E 30
0121021718 69N1329E 30
0121021800 70N1326E 35

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 7.0N 132.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.0N 132.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 7.3N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 7.5N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 7.5N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 7.7N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 9.3N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 11.3N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 13.5N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 7.1N 132.4E.
18FEB21. TROPICAL STORM 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 419 NM
EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
180000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z
AND 190300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 172100
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 210217194221
2021021718 01W ONE 003 01 290 05 SATL 030
T000 070N 1327E 030
T012 073N 1322E 040 R034 190 NE QD 070 SE QD 150 SW QD 210 NW QD
T024 076N 1314E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 100 SE QD 180 SW QD 220 NW QD
T036 078N 1308E 055 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 100 SE QD 150 SW QD 200 NW QD
T048 080N 1298E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 090 SE QD 140 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 093N 1263E 055 R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 112N 1226E 045 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 129N 1191E 035 R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 7.0N 132.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 7.0N 132.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 7.3N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 7.6N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 7.8N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 8.0N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 9.3N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.2N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.9N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 7.1N 132.6E.
17FEB21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
422 NM EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z,
181500Z AND 182100Z.//
0121021412 60N1418E 15
0121021418 60N1413E 20
0121021500 60N1408E 20
0121021506 61N1403E 20
0121021512 62N1397E 20
0121021518 68N1386E 20
0121021600 67N1373E 20
0121021606 68N1364E 20
0121021612 68N1358E 20
0121021618 68N1349E 20
0121021700 67N1343E 20
0121021706 67N1337E 25
0121021712 68N1332E 30
0121021718 70N1327E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 7.0N 132.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 7.0N 132.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 7.3N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 7.6N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 7.8N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 8.0N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 9.3N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.2N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.9N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 7.1N 132.6E.
17FEB21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
422 NM EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z,
181500Z AND 182100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 171500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 210217125522
2021021712 01W ONE 002 01 285 07 SATL 020
T000 068N 1324E 030
T012 070N 1318E 040 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 130 SW QD 210 NW QD
T024 072N 1312E 045 R034 140 NE QD 080 SE QD 160 SW QD 200 NW QD
T036 074N 1305E 050 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 080 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 190 NW QD
T048 076N 1297E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 070 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
T072 087N 1274E 060 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T096 113N 1235E 040 R034 110 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 135N 1201E 035 R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 6.8N 132.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.8N 132.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 7.0N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 7.2N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 7.4N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 7.6N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 8.7N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 11.3N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 13.5N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 6.8N 132.3E.
17FEB21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM
EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
0121021412 60N1418E 15
0121021418 60N1413E 20
0121021500 60N1408E 20
0121021506 61N1403E 20
0121021512 62N1397E 20
0121021518 68N1386E 20
0121021600 67N1373E 20
0121021606 68N1364E 20
0121021612 68N1358E 20
0121021618 68N1349E 20
0121021700 66N1343E 20
0121021706 66N1331E 25
0121021712 68N1324E 30

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 6.8N 132.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.8N 132.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 7.0N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 7.2N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 7.4N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 7.6N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 8.7N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 11.3N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 13.5N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 6.8N 132.3E.
17FEB21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM
EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND
181500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 170900
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 210217065331
2021021706 01W ONE 001 01 270 12 SATL SYNP 025
T000 066N 1331E 025
T012 067N 1325E 035 R034 110 NE QD 050 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 069N 1320E 040 R034 150 NE QD 040 SE QD 150 SW QD 230 NW QD
T036 072N 1313E 045 R034 130 NE QD 030 SE QD 130 SW QD 220 NW QD
T048 075N 1305E 050 R050 040 NE QD 010 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 060 SE QD 110 SW QD 180 NW QD
T072 084N 1283E 055 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 030 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 110N 1249E 045 R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 132N 1214E 030
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 6.6N 133.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.6N 133.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 6.7N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 6.9N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 7.2N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 7.5N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 8.4N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 11.0N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 13.2N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 6.6N 132.9E.
17FEB21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 88
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KOROR, REPUBLIC OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 170600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z
AND 180900Z.//
0121021412 60N1418E 15
0121021418 60N1413E 20
0121021500 60N1408E 20
0121021506 61N1403E 20
0121021512 62N1397E 20
0121021518 68N1386E 20
0121021600 67N1373E 20
0121021606 68N1364E 20
0121021612 68N1358E 20
0121021618 68N1349E 20
0121021700 66N1343E 20
0121021706 66N1331E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 6.6N 133.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.6N 133.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 6.7N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 6.9N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 7.2N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 7.5N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 8.4N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 11.0N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 13.2N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 6.6N 132.9E.
17FEB21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 88
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KOROR, REPUBLIC OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 170600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z
AND 180900Z.//
NNNN

>

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