Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FARAJI-21
Off-shore

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2021-02-14 07:35


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 20.4S 77.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 77.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 20.4S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 77.1E.
14FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1005
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO
THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED CIRCULATION IN ANIMATED
VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 140233Z METOP-A SCATTEROMETER PASS WHICH
INDICATED AN ISOLATED PATCH OF 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT AND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS IN THE OTHER THREE QUADRANTS. HAVING
DISSIPATED BELOW WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT, NORTHWESTERLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, AND PERSISTENT
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS, THE REMNANTS OF TC 19S WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
TO MID-LEVEL STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTH BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140600Z IS 16 FEET.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-13 20:48


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 19.7S 79.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 79.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.6S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.3S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 18.9S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.5S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 78.8E.
13FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1241 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 131638Z
MHS 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED BUT DEFINED LLCC WITH ISOLATED, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS)
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
UPPER-LOW TO THE WEST, OFFSET BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS), A 131800Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 2.2 (32
KNOTS) AND RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWING 30-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 19S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 75NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
GALE-FORCE GRADIENT WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND PERSISTENT
MODERATE TO HIGH VWS (20-25 KNOTS) ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL AS WEAK INFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 48, OR
PERHAPS SOONER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-13 12:55


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 131242
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 34/10/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 13/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.5 S / 79.9 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/02/2021 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 55

24H: 14/02/2021 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 55

36H: 15/02/2021 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

48H: 15/02/2021 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

60H: 16/02/2021 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

72H: 16/02/2021 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE DE
FARAJI S'EST ENCORE ACCENTUEE, AVEC UN MAXIMUM DE CONVECTION SE
DETACHANT DE PLUS EN PLUS VERS LE SUD/SUD-EST DU CENTRE DE SURFACE,
LEQUEL EST PASSE PLUS FRANCHEMENT A L'EXTERIEUR DE LA ZONE
CONVECTIVE. CE DEPHASAGE ENTRE LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES ET LE
COEUR CONVECTIF DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, VISIBLE SUR L'IMAGERIE
SATELLITAIRE CLASSIQUE, EST AUSSI CONFIRME PAR LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDE
AMSR2 DE 0822Z ET SSM/I DE 1029Z. L'ANALYSE SATCON EST AUSSI EN
BAISSE PAR RAPPORT A CE MATIN. AVEC UN DT S'ABAISSANT A 2.5+, CES
ELEMENTS CONFORTENT UNE INTENSITE RAMENEE A 35 KT A 1200Z.

AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR EST DESCENDU
DANS LES BASSES COUCHES ET LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD INDUIT UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST POUR LES PROCHAINS JOURS.

MEME SI LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST RESTE MODERE,
L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE EST SUFFISAMMENT
IMPORTANTE POUR AFFAIBLIR FARAJI. D'APRES LA PLUPART DES MODELES, LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTERONT DEFAVORABLES JUSQU'EN MILIEU
DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE (AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, ABSENCE
D'ALIMENTATION DE BASSES COUCHES COTE EQUATORIAL, CONVERGENCE
INSUFFISANTE COTE POLAIRE), CE QUI DEVRAIT MENER FARAJI A UN STADE
TRES AFFAIBLI D'ICI MARDI PROCHAIN.

DU FAIT DE SA FAIBLE INTENSITE, CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE
CYCLONIQUE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.
TOUTEFOIS, SA TRAJECOIRE LE RAPPROCHANT DES MASCAREIGNES, UNE
DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES EST POSSIBLE.

CECI EST LE DERNIER BULLETIN DE SUIVI DU SYSTEME FARAJI.=

>

2021-02-13 12:55


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 131242
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/10/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 79.9 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/14 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 55

24H: 2021/02/14 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/15 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2021/02/15 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2021/02/16 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2021/02/16 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, FARAJI'S SHEARED PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE
OBVIOUS, WITH THE MAXIMUM OF CONVECTION BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DETACHED TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF A SURFACE CENTER WHICH IS MOVING
AWAY FROM THE CONVECTIVE AREA. THIS TILT BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
AND THE MID-TROPOSPHERE CONVECTIVE CORE IS VISIBLE ON CLASSICAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ALSO CONFIRMED BY THE MICROWAVE IMAGES AMSR2 OF
0822Z AND SSM/I OF 1029Z. THE SATCON ANALYSIS IS ALSO WEAKER COMPARED
TO THIS MORNING. WITH A DT DECREASING TO 2.5+, ALL THESE ELEMENTS
CONFIRM AN INTENSITY REDUCED TO 35 KT AT 1200Z.

WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING FLOW HAS MOVED DOWN TO
THE LOW TROPOSPHERE AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH INDUCES A
WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

EVEN IF THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE, THE INTRUSION
OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE IS IMPORTANT ENOUGH TO WEAKEN
FARAJI. ACCORDING TO MOST MODELS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (DRY AIR IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE, LACK OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE,
INSUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ON THE POLAR SIDE), WHICH SHOULD LEAD FARAJI
TO A VERY WEAK STATE BY NEXT TUESDAY.

DUE TO ITS LOW INTENSITY, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT A CYCLONIC
RISK FOR THE INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HOWEVER, AS ITS
TRACK BRINGS IT CLOSER TO THE MASCARENES, A DEGRADATION OF WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE.

THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN ABOUT FARAJI.=

>

2021-02-13 12:06


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 131203
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/02/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 034/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 13/02/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 79.9 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/14 AT 00 UTC:
19.7 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/14 AT 12 UTC:
19.5 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST BULLETIN ABOUT THIS SYSTEM.=

>

2021-02-13 08:18


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 130900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 210213073448
2021021306 19S FARAJI 017 01 240 06 SATL 040
T000 194S 0801E 045 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 197S 0789E 040 R034 020 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 197S 0773E 035 R034 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD
T036 194S 0749E 035 R034 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 190S 0725E 035 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 181S 0676E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 19.4S 80.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 80.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.7S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.7S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.4S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.0S 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.1S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 79.8E.
13FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1269
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MARITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO SHOW THE EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH IS DISPLACING FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 130407Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CORE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS AND LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF TIGHTLY CONSTRAINED MULTI-AGENCY (PGTW AND FMEE) AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES (ADT) RANGING FROM T3.0-T3.2 (45-47 KTS). A PARTIAL 130409Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATED 35-40KT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. TC 19S IS TRACKING WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. AS THE STR BUILDS IN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 19S IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KTS) NORTHWESTERLY VWS AND CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST IMPINGING THE SECONDARY CIRCULATION. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING WEST IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE PERSISTENT CONVERGENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING AND ULTIMATE DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPREAD TO 175NM AT TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.//
1921020400 105S 801E 20
1921020406 108S 808E 20
1921020412 112S 813E 20
1921020418 116S 814E 25
1921020500 121S 814E 35
1921020506 127S 812E 40
1921020512 131S 807E 45
1921020518 133S 804E 50
1921020518 133S 804E 50
1921020600 138S 801E 50
1921020600 138S 801E 50
1921020606 140S 798E 60
1921020606 140S 798E 60
1921020612 143S 798E 70
1921020612 143S 798E 70
1921020612 143S 798E 70
1921020618 147S 796E 75
1921020618 147S 796E 75
1921020618 147S 796E 75
1921020700 149S 796E 100
1921020700 149S 796E 100
1921020700 149S 796E 100
1921020706 149S 798E 115
1921020706 149S 798E 115
1921020706 149S 798E 115
1921020712 148S 799E 110
1921020712 148S 799E 110
1921020712 148S 799E 110
1921020718 146S 802E 115
1921020718 146S 802E 115
1921020718 146S 802E 115
1921020800 143S 809E 110
1921020800 143S 809E 110
1921020800 143S 809E 110
1921020806 142S 815E 120
1921020806 142S 815E 120
1921020806 142S 815E 120
1921020812 142S 820E 135
1921020812 142S 820E 135
1921020812 142S 820E 135
1921020818 142S 825E 140
1921020818 142S 825E 140
1921020818 142S 825E 140
1921020900 141S 830E 135
1921020900 141S 830E 135
1921020900 141S 830E 135
1921020906 140S 835E 130
1921020906 140S 835E 130
1921020906 140S 835E 130
1921020912 143S 843E 120
1921020912 143S 843E 120
1921020912 143S 843E 120
1921020918 147S 846E 110
1921020918 147S 846E 110
1921020918 147S 846E 110
1921021000 150S 848E 95
1921021000 150S 848E 95
1921021000 150S 848E 95
1921021006 152S 850E 95
1921021006 152S 850E 95
1921021006 152S 850E 95
1921021012 155S 853E 90
1921021012 155S 853E 90
1921021012 155S 853E 90
1921021018 158S 853E 90
1921021018 158S 853E 90
1921021018 158S 853E 90
1921021100 161S 850E 95
1921021100 161S 850E 95
1921021100 161S 850E 95
1921021106 164S 846E 95
1921021106 164S 846E 95
1921021106 164S 846E 95
1921021112 166S 843E 90
1921021112 166S 843E 90
1921021112 166S 843E 90
1921021118 174S 837E 80
1921021118 174S 837E 80
1921021118 174S 837E 80
1921021200 180S 832E 80
1921021200 180S 832E 80
1921021200 180S 832E 80
1921021206 183S 823E 70
1921021206 183S 823E 70
1921021206 183S 823E 70
1921021212 185S 815E 60
1921021212 185S 815E 60
1921021218 188S 811E 50
1921021300 191S 807E 45
1921021306 194S 801E 45
NNNN

>

2021-02-13 06:49


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 130635
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 33/10/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 13/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.6 S / 80.2 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/02/2021 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 35

24H: 14/02/2021 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 55

36H: 14/02/2021 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

48H: 15/02/2021 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

60H: 15/02/2021 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

72H: 16/02/2021 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, FARAJI A GARDE UNE CONFIGURATION
CISAILLEE, AVEC UNE FORTE CONVECTION AU SUD ET SUD-EST DU CENTRE DE
SURFACE. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE AMSU-B DE 0407Z CONFIRME LA LOCALISATION
DU CENTRE AU NORD DE LA ZONE CONVECTIVE AVEC UN COEUR DE BASSES
COUCHES ENCORE BIEN CONSTITUE. UNE PASSE ASCAT PARTIELLE A 0409Z
DONNE DES VENTS DE 35KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST, CONFORTANT L'ANALYSE
DVORAK A 3.0 (VENTS ESTIMES A 40KT).

AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR EST DESCENDU
DANS LES BASSES COUCHES ET LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD INDUIT UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST POUR LES PROCHAINS
JOURS. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE SE BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX
MODELES, DONT LA DISPERSION EST RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE.

FARAJI SUBIT ACTUELLEMENT UN CISAILLEMENT PROFOND MODERE DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST. EN REVANCHE, UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC CONSEQUENTE EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SEMBLE ETRE L'ACTEUR PRINCIPAL DE SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT. CET AIR SEC RESTE BIEN PRESENT SUR LA PERIODE, CE
QUI SUGGERE UNE PREVISION D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT JUSQU'EN MILIEU DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE. LES PRINCIPALES GUIDANCES ACCORDENT DE MOINS EN
MOINS DE CREDIT A L'HYPOTHESE D'UNE REINTENSIFICATION DE FARAJI. LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES NE SONT PAS FAVORABLES AVEC UNE
ALIMENTATION EQUATORIALE INEXISTANTE ET UNE FAIBLE CONVERGENCE DE
SURFACE COTE POLAIRE A LONGUE ECHEANCE.

DU FAIT DE SA FAIBLE INTENSITE, CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE
CYCLONIQUE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.
TOUTEFOIS, SA TRAJECOIRE LE RAPPROCHANT DES MASCAREIGNES, UNE
DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES EST POSSIBLE.=

>

2021-02-13 06:49


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 130635
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/10/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 80.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/13 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 35

24H: 2021/02/14 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/14 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2021/02/15 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2021/02/15 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2021/02/16 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, FARAJI HAS MAINTAINED A SHEARED PATTERN,
WITH STRONG CONVECTION SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. THE
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE OF 0407Z CONFIRMS THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER
NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE ZONE WITH A LOW-LEVEL CORE STILL WELL
CONSTITUTED. A PARTIAL ASCAT SWATH AT 0409Z GIVES WINDS OF 35KT IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, CONFIRMING THE DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 3.0
(ESTIMATED WINDS AT 40KT).

WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING FLOW HAS MOVED DOWN
INTO THE LOW LAYERS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH INDUCES A
TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN MODELS, WHICH
HAVE A RELATIVELY LOW DISPERSION.

FARAJI IS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ON
THE OTHER HAND, A CONSEQUENT DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF ITS WEAKENING. THIS DRY
AIR REMAINS WELL PRESENT OVER THE PERIOD, WHICH SUGGESTS FURTHER
WEAKENING OVER THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN GUIDANCES GIVE
LESS AND LESS CREDIT TO THE HYPOTHESIS OF A REINTENSIFICATION OF
FARAJI. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE WITH NO EQUATORIAL
INFLOW AND LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ON THE POLAR SIDE OVER THE LONG
TERM.

DUE TO ITS LOW INTENSITY, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT A CYCLONIC
RISK FOR THE INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HOWEVER, AS ITS
TRACK BRINGS IT CLOSER TO THE MASCARENE ISLANDS, A DETERIORATION OF
WEATHER CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE.=

>

2021-02-13 06:07


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 130604
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/02/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 033/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 13/02/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 80.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/13 AT 18 UTC:
19.8 S / 78.6 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 35 NM
34 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/14 AT 06 UTC:
19.6 S / 76.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-13 00:33


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 130028
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/10/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 13/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.1 S / 80.6 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SO: 280 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/02/2021 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 65

24H: 14/02/2021 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SO: 120 NO: 55

36H: 14/02/2021 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

48H: 15/02/2021 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

60H: 15/02/2021 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

72H: 16/02/2021 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5+ CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURAITON NUAGEUSE DE
FARAJI A PEU EVOLUE. ELLE AFFICHE MAITENANT UN ASPECT CISAILLEE PLUS
MARQUE AVEC LE CENTRE DE SURFACE EN BORDURE DE LA CONVECTION
PROFONDE. CELA EST CONFIRME PAR LA PASSE AMSR2 DE 2011Z. L'INTENSITE
EST ABAISSEE A 45KT PLUTOT EN ACCORD AVEC LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES
ET SUBJECTIVES D'INTENSITE.

AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR EST DESCENDU
DANS LES BASSES COUCHES ET LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD EST EN
TRAIN DE REPRENDRE LA MAIN SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE INDUISANT UNE
ORIENTATION PROGRESSIVE EN DIRECTION GENERALE VERS L'OUEST. DIMANCHE,
UNE TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EST ATTENDUE ALORS
QUE LA DORSALE SE RENFORCE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. LA PREVISION
ACTUELLE SE BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES, DONT LA
DISPERSION EST PLUS FAIBLE.

FARAJI SUBIT ACTUELLEMENT UN CISAILLEMENT PROFOND DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST, ASSOCIA A UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC, CE QUI FRAGILISE SA
STRUCTURE. L'AIR SEC RESTE BIEN PRESENT SUR LA PERIODE, CE QUI
SUGGERE UNE PREVISION D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT MARQUEE. LES PRINCIPALES
GUIDANCES ACCORDENT DE MOINS EN MOINS DE CREDIT A L'HYPOTHESE D'UNE
REINTENSIFICATION DE FARAJI. LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES NE SONT
PAS FAVORABLES AVEC UNE ALIMENTATION EQUATORIALE INEXISTANTE ET UNE
FAIBLE CONVERGENCE COTE POLAIRE A LONGUE ECHEANCE.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

2021-02-13 00:33


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 130028
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/10/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 80.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/13 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2021/02/14 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/14 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2021/02/15 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2021/02/15 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2021/02/16 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5+ CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, FARAJI CLOUD PATTERN DID NOT EVOLVE A LOT.
IT NOW DISPLAYS A MORE CLASSICAL SHEAR PATTERN WITH THE CENTER CLOSE
TO THE BORDER OF THE CDO. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY 2011Z AMSR2 SWATH.
INTENSITY IS DOWNGRADED TO 45KT IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING FLOW LOWERED INTO THE
LOW LAYERS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS CURRENTLY
REGAINING CONTROL OF THE TRACK INDUCING A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY
ORIENTATION. ON SUNDAY, A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN NUMERICAL
MODELS, WHOSE DISPERSION IS LOWER.

FARAJI KEEPS UNDERGOING A DEEP NORTHWESTERN SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR, WHICH IS WEAKENING ITS STRUCTURE. THE DRY AIR
REMAINS WELL PRESENT OVER THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING A FORECAST OF SWIFT
WEAKENING. THE MAIN GUIDANCES GIVE LESS AND LESS CREDIT TO THE
HYPOTHESIS OF A REINTENSIFICATION OF FARAJI. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE WITH NO MONSOON FEEDING AND A WEAK POLAR
CONVERGENCE AT LONG RANGE.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR THE INHABITED
LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

2021-02-13 00:15


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 130013
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/02/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 032/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 13/02/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 80.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/13 AT 12 UTC:
19.7 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/14 AT 00 UTC:
19.8 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-12 21:02


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 18.8S 80.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 80.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 19.3S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.5S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.3S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.0S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.1S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 80.4E.
12FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1325 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION
OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AS NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) HAS DISPLACED RAGGED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LLCC IN THE EIR. THERE IS NO RECENT MICROWAVE OR SCATTEROMETER PASS
AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME TO SUPPORT THE POSITIONING. DVORAK DATA-T
VALUES HAVE DROPPED SHARPLY, AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOW
RANGE FROM T3.5 TO T4.0. THE 121800Z CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS T3.2 (49
KNOTS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KTS BASED ON A BLEND
OF ALL AVAILABLE DATA AND ACCOUNTING FOR THE RAPID WEAKENING TREND.
THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AS A DEEP LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST IS CAUSING SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IMPEDING THE OUTFLOW, AND PRODUCING STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. FARAJI IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING (STR) BUILDS IN TO
THE SOUTH. AS THE STR DEVELOPS, THE TRACK SHOULD BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AFTER TAU 48. THE RELATIVE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN
CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND VWS. DUE TO THE RAPID
WEAKENING TREND CURRENTLY OBSERVED AND THE OUTLOOK FOR UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A DISSIPATION
OVER WATER AT TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
INCREASINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 110 NM AT TAU
72, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130900Z AND 132100Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-02-12 18:44


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 121833
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/10/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 12/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.6 S / 80.9 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SO: 280 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/02/2021 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 65

24H: 13/02/2021 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 55

36H: 14/02/2021 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SO: 95 NO: 55

48H: 14/02/2021 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

60H: 15/02/2021 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

72H: 15/02/2021 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/02/2021 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.5

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURAITON NUAGEUSE DE
FARAJI A CONTINUE A SE DEGRADER SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT DE
SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. LES DENRIERS IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (SSMIS DE 1336Z)
MONTRENT QUE LE CENTRE DE SURFACE RESTE EN MARGE DE L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE PRINCIPALE. EN L'ABSENCE DE PASSES ASCAT SUR LE SYSTEME,
IL EST DIFFICILE D'AVOIR DES CERTITUDES SUR L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE DU
SYSTEME. AU VU DE LA SMAP PARTIELLE DE 1230Z QUI DONNE 40KT,
L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE DE 50KT EST PEUT ETRE SUR-ESTIMEE.

AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR EST DESCENDU
DANS LES BASSES COUCHES ET LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD EST EN
TRAIN DE REPRENDRE LA MAIN SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE INDUISANT UNE
ORIENTATION EN DIRECTION GENERALE VERS L'OUEST. DIMANCHE, UNE
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EST ATTENDUE ALORS QUE
LA DORSALE SE RENFORCE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE
SE BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES, DONT LA DISPERSION
EST PLUS FAIBLE.

FARAJI SUBIT ACTUELLEMENT UN CISAILLEMENT PROFONDE DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST, ASSOCIA A UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC, CE QUI FRAGILISE SA
STRUCTURE. L'AIR SEC RESTE BIEN PRESENT SUR LA PERIODE, CE QUI
SUGGERE UNE PREVISION D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT MARQUEE. LES PRINCIPALES
GUIDANCES ACCORDENT DE MOINS EN MOINS DE CREDIT A L'HYPOTHESE D'UNE
REINTENSIFICATION DE FARAJI.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

2021-02-12 18:44


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 121833
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/10/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 80.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/13 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2021/02/13 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/14 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 55

48H: 2021/02/14 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2021/02/15 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2021/02/15 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/16 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.5

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, FARAJI CLOUD PATTERN KEEP ON DETERIORATING
UNDER THE DETRIMENTAL INFLUENCE OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR. LAST
MICROWAVE DATA (1336Z MICROWAVE) SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS
QUITE DISTANT FROM THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LACKING RELIABLE
ASCAT DATA, II IS DIFFICULT TO ASSES THE REAL INTENSITY OF FARAJI.
GIVEN THE 1230Z PARTIAL SMAP SWATH WHICH INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS
AROUND 40KT, THE CURRENT 50KT INTENSITY MAY BE OVERESTIMATED.

WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING FLOW LOWERED INTO THE
LOW LAYERS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS CURRENTLY
REGAINING CONTROL OF THE TRACK INDUCING A GENERAL WESTERLY
ORIENTATION. ON SUNDAY, A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN NUMERICAL
MODELS, WHOSE DISPERSION IS LOWER.

FARAJI KEEPS UNDERGOING A DEEP NORTHWESTERN SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR, WHICH IS WEAKENING ITS STRUCTURE. THE DRY AIR
REMAINS WELL PRESENT OVER THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING A FORECAST OF STRONG
WEAKENING. THE MAIN GUIDANCES GIVE LESS AND LESS CREDIT TO THE
HYPOTHESIS OF A REINTENSIFICATION OF FARAJI.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR THE INHABITED
LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

2021-02-12 18:17


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 121814
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/02/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 12/02/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 80.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 35
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/13 AT 06 UTC:
18.9 S / 79.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/13 AT 18 UTC:
18.9 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-12 13:12


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 121245
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 30/10/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 12/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.1 S / 81.4 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SO: 280 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/02/2021 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

24H: 13/02/2021 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 65

36H: 14/02/2021 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 14/02/2021 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 55

60H: 15/02/2021 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 55

72H: 15/02/2021 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 20 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/02/2021 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

120H: 17/02/2021 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0+;CI=4.0

LA CONFIGURATION CISAILLE DE FARAJI SE CONFIRME DEPUIS CES 12
DERNIERES HEURES. LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD FAIT EMERGER LE
CENTRE DE CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES DANS LE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST DU
SYSTEME. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE SSMIS DE 1056Z SUGGERE EGALEMENT CE NET
AFFAIBLISSEMENT EN PRESENTANT UNE STRUCTURE INTERNE TRA S
DESORGANISE.
ELLE PERMET EGALEMENT DE BIEN LOCALISER LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES,
AVEC UNE BONNE CONFIANCE. SELON CES ANALYSES ET AU VU DES DERNIERES
DONNEES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES (SATCON, ADT, JTWC), L'INTENSITE DE
FARAJI EST ABAISSEE A 55 KT.

AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR EST DESCENDU
DANS LES BASSES COUCHES ET LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD EST EN
TRAIN DE REPRENDRE LA MAIN SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE INDUISANT UNE
ORIENTATION EN DIRECTION GENERALE VERS L'OUEST. DIMANCHE, UNE
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EST ATTENDUE ALORS QUE
LA DORSALE SE RENFORCE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE
SE BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES, DONT LA DISPERSION
EST PLUS FAIBLE.

FARAJI SUBIT ACTUELLEMENT UN CISAILLEMENT PROFONDE DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST, ASSOCIA A UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC, CE QUI FRAGILISE SA
STRUCTURE. L'AIR SEC RESTE BIEN PRESENT SUR LA PERIODE, CE QUI
SUGGERE UNE PREVISION D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT MARQUEE. LES PRINCIPALES
GUIDANCES ACCORDENT DE MOINS EN MOINS DE CREDIT A L'HYPOTHESE D'UNE
REINTENSIFICATION DE FARAJI.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

2021-02-12 13:12


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 121245
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/10/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 81.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/13 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

24H: 2021/02/13 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65

36H: 2021/02/14 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2021/02/14 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 55

60H: 2021/02/15 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 55

72H: 2021/02/15 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 20 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/16 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

120H: 2021/02/17 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+;CI=4.0

FARAJI'S SHEAR PATTERN HAS BEEN CONFIRMED FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE
NORTHERLY UPPER WIND SHEAR BRINGS OUT THE LOW LAYER CIRCULATION
CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. THE 1056Z SSMIS
IMAGE ALSO SUGGESTS THIS CLEAR WEAKENING BY SHOWING A WEAK INNER
STRUCTURE. IT ALLOWS TO LOCATE THE LLCC WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
GIVEN THESE ANALYSIS AND ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE DATA (SATCON, ADT, JTWC), FARAJI'S INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
55 KT.

WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING FLOW LOWERED INTO THE
LOW LAYERS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS CURRENTLY
REGAINING CONTROL OF THE TRACK INDUCING A GENERAL WESTERLY
ORIENTATION. ON SUNDAY, A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN NUMERICAL
MODELS, WHOSE DISPERSION IS LOWER.

FARAJI KEEPS UNDERGOING A DEEP NORTHWESTERN SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR, WHICH IS WEAKENING ITS STRUCTURE. THE DRY AIR
REMAINS WELL PRESENT OVER THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING A FORECAST OF STRONG
WEAKENING. THE MAIN GUIDANCES GIVE LESS AND LESS CREDIT TO THE
HYPOTHESIS OF A REINTENSIFICATION OF FARAJI.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR THE INHABITED
LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

2021-02-12 12:30


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 121228
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/02/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 12/02/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 81.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/13 AT 00 UTC:
18.1 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/13 AT 12 UTC:
18.5 S / 79.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-12 08:14


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 18.3S 82.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 82.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 18.8S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 19.3S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.5S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.2S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 18.4S 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.3S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.2S 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 81.8E.
12FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 1408 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS,
HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH TRANSVERSE BANDING
IN THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE TRACING OF
LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES THAT WRAP INTO THE OBSCURED
LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
70 KTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KTS, PGTW) AND T4.5 (FMEE AND
FIMP, 77KTS) AND A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.8 (61 KTS). TC FARAJI
IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THROUGH A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT
OFFSET BY HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND AND
CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. TC FARAJI WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN TO 45 KTS THROUGH TAU 36 AS IT TRACKS WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
THEREAFTER THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM WILL SHIFT
TO A DEEP LAYER STR POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH THAT WILL
DRIVE THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONTINUED HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM INTENSIFYING DESPITE WARM SST.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AFTER
TAU 96 AS THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IMPROVES AND VWS
DECREASES, LEADING TO AN INTENSITY OF 45 KTS BY TAU
120. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM THAT CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD BIAS. WHEN REMOVING
THE NAVGEM TRACK FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS, THE MAXIMUM
SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS IS 350 NM AT TAU 120.
THIS LOW SPREAD IN TRACK GUIDANCE LENDS OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED
JUST RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE
POLEWARD BIAS FROM THE NAVGEM SOLUTION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-12 07:15


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 120647
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 29/10/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 12/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.3 S / 82.3 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 977 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 295 SO: 220 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/02/2021 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65

24H: 13/02/2021 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 185 SO: 195 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 35

36H: 13/02/2021 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 65 NO: 35

48H: 14/02/2021 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 55

60H: 14/02/2021 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 20 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 55

72H: 15/02/2021 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 20 SE: 75 SO: 45 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/02/2021 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 17/02/2021 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 75 SO: 45 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 10 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5;CI=4.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA PRESENTATION SATELLITE DE FARAJI
A EVOLUE VERS UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE AVEC DES SOMMETS QUI SE
SONT RA CHAUFFES. LES OBSERVATIONS DES DERNIERES IMAGES VISIBLE
MONTRENT UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE SSMIS DE
0102Z MONTRE UNE VRAIE FAIBLESSE DANS LA PARTIE NORD DU MUR DE
L'OEIL. AU VU DES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES, L'INTENSITE DE
FARAJI EST PORTEE A 65 KT, STADE MINIMAL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.

FARAJI POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, GUIDE PAR LA
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME ET EN
BORDURE D'UN AXE DE BAS GEOPOTENTIELS SITUE PLUS A L'OUEST.
AUJOURD'HUI, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR
DESCEND PROGRESSIVEMENT DANS LES BASSES COUCHES ET LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD REPREND LA MAIN SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE INDUISANT UNE
ORIENTATION EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST. DIMANCHE, UNE
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EST ATTENDUE ALORS QUE
LA DORSALE SE RENFORCE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE
SE BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES MALGRE UNE DISPERSION
MARQUEE.

FARAJI SUBIT ACTUELLEMENT UN CISAILLEMENT PROFONDE DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST, ASSOCIA A UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC, CE QUI FRAGILISE SA
STRUCTURE. L'AIR SEC RESTE BIEN PRESENT SUR LA PERIODE, CE QUI
SUGGERE UNE PREVISION D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT MARQUEE. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, AVEC UNE LEGERE AMELIORATION DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES UNE LEGERE REINTENSIFICATION RESTE ENVISAGEABLE.
TOUTEFOIS, LES GUIDANCES SONT TRES DISPERSEES ET FLUCTUANTES D'UN RUN
A L'AUTRE. CETTE REINTENSIFICATION EST ENCORE TRES INCERTAINE.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

2021-02-12 07:15


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 120647
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/10/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/12 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 82.3 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/12 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

24H: 2021/02/13 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 185 SW: 195 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 35

36H: 2021/02/13 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 35

48H: 2021/02/14 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 55

60H: 2021/02/14 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 20 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55

72H: 2021/02/15 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 20 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/16 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2021/02/17 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 10 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5;CI=4.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, FARAJI'S SATELLITE FEATURE HAS EVOLVED INTO A
SHEARED PATTERN WITH WARMER TOPS. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LAST VISIBLE
IMAGES SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE 0102Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A
REAL WEAKNESS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE EYE WALL. GIVEN THE
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS, FARAJI'S INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO
65 KT, THE MINIMAL STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FARAJI CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, GUIDED BY THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND
BORDERING A LOW GEOPOTENTIAL AXIS LOCATED FURTHER WEST. TODAY WITH
THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING FLOW IS GRADUALLY COMING
DOWN IN THE LOW LAYERS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS
TAKING OVER THE TRAJECTORY INDUCING A GENERAL WESTERWARD MOTION. ON
SUNDAY A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AS
THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN MODELS DESPITE A MARKED
DISPERSION.

FARAJI IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A DEEP NORTHWESTERN SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION, WHICH IS WEAKENING ITS STRUCTURE. THE DRY AIR
REMAINS PRESENT OVER THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING A FORECAST OF SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING. EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, A SLIGHT REINTENSIFICATION REMAINS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCES ARE VERY SCATTERED AND FLUCTUATE
FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT. THIS REINTENSIFICATION IS STILL VERY
UNCERTAIN.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR THE INHABITED
LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

2021-02-12 06:34


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 120633
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/02/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 029/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 12/02/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 82.3 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/12 AT 18 UTC:
18.5 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/13 AT 06 UTC:
19.0 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-12 00:36


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 120035
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/10/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 12/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.6 S / 83.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 972 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/02/2021 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

24H: 13/02/2021 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 35

36H: 13/02/2021 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

48H: 14/02/2021 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 55

60H: 14/02/2021 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 15/02/2021 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/02/2021 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

120H: 17/02/2021 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 10 NO: 85

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5;CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, FARAJI A PRESENTE UNE STRUCTURE DE
CDO, ET CONSERVE ENCORE DES SOMMETS TRES FROIDS.
NEANMOINS, LES DERNIERES MICRO-ONDES DISPONIBLES (AMSR2 DE 19H27 ET
SSMIS 22H21) MONTRENT LA CONVECTION PROFONDE EST ENTAME DANS SA
PARTIE NORD, ET UN OEIL EN 37GHZ OUVERT DANS LE NORD-EST, CE QUI
TRADUIT L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME.

FARAJI POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, GUIDE PAR LA
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE A L'EST ET AU SUD-EST DU
SYSTEME ET EN BORDURE D'UN AXE DE BAS GEOPOTENTIELS SITUE PLUS A
L'OUEST.
A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR REDESCEND PROGRESSIVEMENT DANS LES BASSES COUCHES ET LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD REPREND LA MAIN SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE
INDUISANT UNE ORIENTATION EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST. DIMANCHE,
UNE TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EST ATTENDUE ALORS
QUE LA DORSALE SE RENFORCE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. LA PREVISION
ACTUELLE SE BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES MALGRE UNE
DISPERSION MARQUEE.

FARAJI PROGRESSE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS CISAILLE PAR
UN CISAILLEMENT PROFOND DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. CELA DEVRAIT
FRAGILISER SA STRUCTURE TOUT EN ADVECTANT L'AIR SEC PRESENT AU
NORD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, D'OA UNE PREVISION D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ASSEZ
RAPIDE POUR AUJOURD'HUI. MEME SI LE SYSTEME RESTERA ENSUITE EN
BORDURE NORD DE LA ZONE DE FORT CISAILLEMENT, L'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE DEVRAIT ENVELOPPER PLUS FRANCHEMENT LE SYSTEME, CE QUI
SUGGERE UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SE POURSUIVANT JUSQU'A CE WEEKEND,
L'AMENANT A UN STADE PROBABLEMENT TRES FAIBLE D'ICI DIMANCHE. EN
DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, AVEC UNE REAUGMENTATION DE LA DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE, LE RETOUR D'AIR PLUS HUMIDE PAR L'EST, UNE
REINTENSIFICATION RESTE ENVISAGEABLE. TOUTEFOIS, LES GUIDANCES SONT
TRES DISPERSEES ET FLUCTUANTES D'UN RUN A L'AUTRE. CETTE
REINTENSIFICATION EST ENCORE TRES INCERTAINE.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

2021-02-12 00:36


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 120035
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/10/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/12 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 83.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/12 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

24H: 2021/02/13 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 35

36H: 2021/02/13 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

48H: 2021/02/14 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 55

60H: 2021/02/14 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2021/02/15 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/16 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2021/02/17 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 10 NW: 85

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5;CI=5.0-

IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, FARAJI HAS PRESENTED A CDO STRUCTURE, AND STILL
RETAINS VERY COLD PEAKS.
NEVERTHELESS, THE LAST AVAILABLE MICROWAVES (AMSR2 AT 19H27 AND SSMIS
22H21) SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS SUFFREING IN ITS NORTHERN PART,
AND A 37GHZ EYE OPEN IN THE NORTHEAST, WHICH SHOWS THE WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM.

FARAJI CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, GUIDED BY THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LOCATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND
BORDERING A LOWER GEOPOTENTIAL AXIS FURTHER WEST.
FROM FRIDAY, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING FLOW
PROGRESSIVELY DROPS DOWN INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH TAKES HOLD OF THE TRACK, INDUCING A WESTERLY
MOVEMENT. ON SUNDAY, A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK IS
EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOUTHWESTWARD OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN MODELS DESPITE A
MARKED DISPERSION.

FARAJI IS PROGRESSING IN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BY A
DEEP NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN ITS STRUCTURE WHILE
ADVECTING THE DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM,
THUS RESULTING IN A FORECAST OF FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING TODAY. EVEN IF
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH SHEAR
ZONE, DRY AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHOULD ENVELOP THE SYSTEM,
SUGGESTING A WEAKENING THAT WILL CARRY ON UNTIL THIS WEEKEND,
BRINGING IT TO A PROBABLY VERY WEAK STAGE BY SUNDAY. AT THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH AN INCREASE IN ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE AND THE RETURN
OF MORE HUMID AIR FROM THE EAST, A REINTENSIFICATION REMAINS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, GUIDANCES ARE VERY SCATTERED AND DIFFER FROM ONE
RUN TO ANOTHER. THIS REINTENSIFICATION IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR THE INHABITED
AREAS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

2021-02-12 00:04


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 120001
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/02/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 12/02/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI) 972 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 83.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
20 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/12 AT 12 UTC:
18.2 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/13 AT 00 UTC:
18.6 S / 80.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 25 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-11 21:05


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 17.2S 83.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 83.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.7S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 18.2S 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 18.7S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 18.9S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.5S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.4S 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.9S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 83.2E.
11FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
884NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING A BULLSEYE 1635Z ASCAT
PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T4.5 (PGTW, FMEE 77 KTS) AND FIMP (T5.0 90 KTS) WHICH ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE DECREASING TREND ON CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.2 (70 KTS). TC FARAJI IS
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND THROUGH
A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (27-28 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
OFFSET BY MODERATE (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
AS THE STEERING STR CONTINUES TO BUILD, IT WILL REPOSITION
FARTHER WEST AND BEGIN TO DRIVE TC FARAJI GENERALLY WESTWARD
AFTER TAU 24. MODERATE VWS, COUPLED WITH PERIODS OF CONVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT, WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 45 KTS BY TAU 72.
THEREAFTER, THE STEERING STR WILL REPOSITION AND BEGIN TO STEER
THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND CONTINUED
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SST AFTER TAU 72 WILL LEAD TO SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION TO 50 KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96, WITH THE MAXIMUM ALONG-TRACK
SPREAD OF 280NM AT TAU 120, EXCEPTING THE SOLE OUTLIER OF NAVGEM.
THE NAVGEM SOLUTION REMAINS FAR LEFT OF TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 AND
THEN MOVES RIGHT OF TRACK BY TAU 96. NAVGEM LAGS FAR BEHIND ALL
OTHER SOLUTIONS BY NEARLY 600NM FROM THE NEAREST SOLUTIONS, LENDING
OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, PLACED JUST
RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE APPARENT NAVGEM
BIAS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-11 18:23


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 111821
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/10/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 11/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.1 S / 83.9 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 370 SO: 480 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/02/2021 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 12/02/2021 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 240 SO: 260 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 35

36H: 13/02/2021 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 185 SO: 195 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 35

48H: 13/02/2021 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SO: 150 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 35

60H: 14/02/2021 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 55

72H: 14/02/2021 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/02/2021 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 55

120H: 16/02/2021 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 20 NO: 110

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5+;CI=5.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, FARAJI A PERDU SON OEIL. D'APRES
L'IMAGERIE SATELLITE, LE SYSTEME PRESENTE MAINTENANT UNE STRUCTURE DE
CDO, ET CONSERVE ENCORE DES SOMMETS TRES FROIDS.
NEANMOINS, LES DERNIERES MICRO-ONDES DISPONIBLES (AMSU-B DE 12H38 ET
15H38) MONTRENT UN COEUR QUI DEVIENT DE PLUS EN PLUS COMPACT ET
SEMBLE PERDRE EN ORGANISATION. L'INTENSITE FINALE EST REMENE A 80 KT.

FARAJI POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, GUIDE PAR LA
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE A L'EST ET AU SUD-EST DU
SYSTEME ET EN BORDURE D'UN AXE DE BAS GEOPOTENTIELS SITUE PLUS A
L'OUEST.
A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR REDESCEND PROGRESSIVEMENT DANS LES BASSES COUCHES ET LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD REPREND LA MAIN SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE
INDUISANT UNE ORIENTATION EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST. DIMANCHE,
UNE TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EST ATTENDUE ALORS
QUE LA DORSALE SE RENFORCE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. LA PREVISION
ACTUELLE SE BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES MALGRE UNE
DISPERSION MARQUEE.

FARAJI PROGRESSE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS CISAILLE PAR
UN CISAILLEMENT PROFOND DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. CELA DEVRAIT
FRAGILISER SA STRUCTURE TOUT EN ADVECTANT L'AIR SEC PRESENT AU
NORD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, D'OA UNE PREVISION D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ASSEZ
RAPIDE VENDREDI. MEME SI LE SYSTEME RESTERA ENSUITE EN BORDURE NORD
DE LA ZONE DE FORT CISAILLEMENT, L'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
DEVRAIT ENVELOPPER PLUS FRANCHEMENT LE SYSTEME, CE QUI SUGGERE UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT SE POURSUIVANT JUSQU'A CE WEEKEND, L'AMENANT A UN
STADE PROBABLEMENT TRES FAIBLE D'ICI DIMANCHE. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, AVEC UNE REAUGMENTATION DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, LE
RETOUR D'AIR PLUS HUMIDE PAR L'EST, UNE REINTENSIFICATION RESTE
ENVISAGEABLE. TOUTEFOIS, LES GUIDANCES SONT TRES DISPERSEES ET
FLUCTUANTES D'UN RUN A L'AUTRE. CETTE REINTENSIFICATION EST ENCORE
TRES INCERTAINE.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.
PERDU SON=

>

2021-02-11 18:23


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 111821
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/10/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 83.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 370 SW: 480 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/12 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2021/02/12 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 240 SW: 260 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 35

36H: 2021/02/13 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 185 SW: 195 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 35

48H: 2021/02/13 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 35

60H: 2021/02/14 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 55

72H: 2021/02/14 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/15 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 55

120H: 2021/02/16 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 20 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+;CI=5.0+

IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, FARAJI HAS LOST HIS EYE. ACCORDING TO SATELLITE
IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM NOW SHOWS A CDO STRUCTURE, AND STILL RETAINS VERY
COLD TOPS.
NEVERTHELESS, THE LATEST AVAILABLE MICROWAVES (AMSU-B AT 12H38 AND
15H38) SHOW A HEART THAT IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE COMPACT AND SEEMS
TO BE LOSING ORGANIZATION. THE FINAL INTENSITY IS BACK TO 80 KT.

FARAJI CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, GUIDED BY THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LOCATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND
BORDERING A LOWER GEOPOTENTIAL AXIS FURTHER WEST.
FROM FRIDAY, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING FLOW
PROGRESSIVELY DROPS DOWN INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH TAKES HOLD OF THE TRACK, INDUCING A WESTERLY
MOVEMENT. ON SUNDAY, A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK IS
EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOUTHWESTWARD OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN MODELS DESPITE A
MARKED DISPERSION.

FARAJI IS PROGRESSING IN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BY A
DEEP NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN ITS STRUCTURE WHILE
ADVECTING THE DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM,
THUS RESULTING IN A FORECAST OF FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING BY FRIDAY.
EVEN IF THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH
SHEAR ZONE, DRY AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHOULD ENVELOP THE SYSTEM,
SUGGESTING A WEAKENING THAT WILL CARRY ON UNTIL THIS WEEKEND,
BRINGING IT TO A PROBABLY VERY WEAK STAGE BY SUNDAY. AT THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH AN INCREASE IN ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE AND THE RETURN
OF MORE HUMID AIR FROM THE EAST, A REINTENSIFICATION REMAINS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, GUIDANCES ARE VERY SCATTERED AND DIFFER FROM ONE
RUN TO ANOTHER. THIS REINTENSIFICATION IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR THE INHABITED
AREAS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

2021-02-11 18:10


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 111807
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/02/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 11/02/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 83.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CERCLE AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 260 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/12 AT 06 UTC:
17.7 S / 82.4 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/12 AT 18 UTC:
18.1 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-11 13:14


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 111304
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/10/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 11/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.7 S / 84.3 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 963 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 370 SO: 480 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/02/2021 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 295 SO: 270 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 12/02/2021 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 13/02/2021 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 215 SO: 220 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 35

48H: 13/02/2021 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 165 SO: 205 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 35

60H: 14/02/2021 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 55

72H: 14/02/2021 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/02/2021 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 55

120H: 16/02/2021 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 55

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0;CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, FARAJI A GARDE LE PLUS SOUVENT UNE
CONFIGURATION EN OEIL. D'APRES L'IMAGERIE SATELLITE, LE SYSTEME S'EST
MEME TEMPORAIREMENT RENFORCE POUR ATTEINDRE UN MAXIMUM RELATIF
D'INTENSITE AUTOUR DE 08Z, AVEC UN DT MOYEN SUR 3 HEURES REMONTANT A
5.5-. LE DT EST ENSUITE REDESCENDU AUTOUR DE 5.0 JUSTE AVANT 12Z. PAR
AILLEURS, LES DERNIERES MICRO-ONDES DISPONIBLES (SSMIS DE 1043Z)
MONTRENT UN COEUR QUI DEVIENT DE PLUS EN PLUS COMPACT ET SEMBLE
PERDRE EN ORGANISATION. PAR INERTIE, L'INTENSITE FINALE EST ESTIMEE A
85 KT.

FARAJI POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, GUIDE PAR LA
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE A L'EST ET AU SUD-EST DU
SYSTEME ET EN BORDURE D'UN AXE DE BAS GEOPOTENTIELS SITUE PLUS A
L'OUEST.
A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR REDESCEND PROGRESSIVEMENT DANS LES BASSES COUCHES ET LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD REPREND LA MAIN SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE
INDUISANT UNE ORIENTATION EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST. DIMANCHE,
UNE TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EST ATTENDUE ALORS
QUE LA DORSALE SE RENFORCE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. LA PREVISION
ACTUELLE SE BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES MALGRE UNE
DISPERSION MARQUEE.

FARAJI PROGRESSE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS CISAILLE PAR
UN CISAILLEMENT PROFOND DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. CELA DEVRAIT
FRAGILISER SA STRUCTURE TOUT EN ADVECTANT L'AIR SEC PRESENT AU
NORD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, D'OA UNE PREVISION D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ASSEZ
RAPIDE D'ICI VENDREDI. MEME SI LE SYSTEME RESTERA ENSUITE EN BORDURE
NORD DE LA ZONE DE FORT CISAILLEMENT, L'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE DEVRAIT ENVELOPPER PLUS FRANCHEMENT LE SYSTEME, CE QUI
SUGGERE UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SE POURSUIVANT JUSQU'A CE WEEKEND,
L'AMENANT A UN STADE PROBABLEMENT TRES FAIBLE D'ICI DIMANCHE. EN
DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, AVEC UNE REAUGMENTATION DE LA DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE, LE RETOUR D'AIR PLUS HUMIDE PAR L'EST, UNE
REINTENSIFICATION RESTE ENVISAGEABLE. TOUTEFOIS, LES GUIDANCES SONT
TRES DISPERSEES ET FLUCTUANTES D'UN RUN A L'AUTRE. CETTE
REINTENSIFICATION EST ENCORE TRES INCERTAINE.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

2021-02-11 13:14


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 111304
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/10/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 84.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 963 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 370 SW: 480 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/12 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2021/02/12 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2021/02/13 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 35

48H: 2021/02/13 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 35

60H: 2021/02/14 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 55

72H: 2021/02/14 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/15 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 55

120H: 2021/02/16 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 55

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0;CI=5.5-

IN THE PAST 6 HOURS, FARAJI HAS KEPT A REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED EYE
PATTERN. ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM HAS EVEN
TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENED TO REACH A RELATIVE MAXIMUM INTENSITY AROUND
08Z, WITH AN 3-HOUR AVERAGED DT AROUND 5.5-. THE DT THEN DROPPED TO
AROUND 5.0 JUST BEFORE 12Z. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE LATEST AVAILABLE
MICROWAVES (SSMIS OF 1043Z) SHOW A CORE THAT IS BECOMING MORE AND
MORE COMPACT AND SEEMS TO LOSE IN ORGANIZATION. BY INERTIA, THE FINAL
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 85 KT.

FARAJI CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, GUIDED BY THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LOCATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND
BORDERING A LOWER GEOPOTENTIAL AXIS FURTHER WEST.
FROM FRIDAY, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING FLOW
PROGRESSIVELY DROPS DOWN INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH TAKES HOLD OF THE TRACK, INDUCING A WESTERLY
MOVEMENT. ON SUNDAY, A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK IS
EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOUTHWESTWARD OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN MODELS DESPITE A
MARKED DISPERSION.

FARAJI IS PROGRESSING IN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BY A
DEEP NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN ITS STRUCTURE WHILE
ADVECTING THE DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM,
THUS RESULTING IN A FORECAST OF FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING BY FRIDAY.
EVEN IF THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH
SHEAR ZONE, DRY AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHOULD ENVELOP THE SYSTEM,
SUGGESTING A WEAKENING THAT WILL CARRY ON UNTIL THIS WEEKEND,
BRINGING IT TO A PROBABLY VERY WEAK STAGE BY SUNDAY. AT THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH AN INCREASE IN ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE AND THE RETURN
OF MORE HUMID AIR FROM THE EAST, A REINTENSIFICATION REMAINS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, GUIDANCES ARE VERY SCATTERED AND DIFFER FROM ONE
RUN TO ANOTHER. THIS REINTENSIFICATION IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR THE INHABITED
AREAS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

2021-02-11 12:23


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 111222
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/02/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 11/02/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI) 963 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 84.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 260 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/12 AT 00 UTC:
17.3 S / 83.2 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/12 AT 12 UTC:
17.9 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-11 08:13


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 16.4S 84.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 84.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.9S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.4S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.8S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.9S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.8S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.2S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.1S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 84.4E.
11FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
903 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WRAP
INTO A FORMING 8 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE PRESENCE OF THE EYE FEATURE
LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (PGTW, 102
KTS) AND T5.0 (FMEE AND FIMP, 90 KTS) WHICH ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T5.4 (100 KTS). TC FARAJI IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM
(27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND ROBUST POLEWARD
OUFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
AS THE STEERING STR CONTINUES TO BUILD IT WILL REPOSITION FARTHER
WEST AND BEGIN TO DRIVE TC FARAJI GENERALLY WESTWARD AFTER TAU 36.
MODERATE VWS COUPLED WITH PERIODS OF CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 45 KTS BY TAU 72. THEREAFTER, THE STEERING STR
WILL REPOSITION AND BEGIN TO STEER THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND CONTINUED WARM (28-39 CELSIUS) SST AFTER TAU
72 WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 55 KTS BY TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH THE NAVGEM MODEL
PROVIDES A FAR LEFT OF TRACK (POLEWARD) SOLUTION. ADDITIONALLY, THE
DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE STEERING STR REPOSITIONING RESULTS IN A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ALONG TRACK SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS
ALONG TRACK SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, COUPLED WITH A 400 NM ACROSS
TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120, LENDS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED JUST RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE APPARENT NAVGEM BIAS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND
120900Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-11 07:04


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 110641
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/10/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 11/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.4 S / 84.7 E
(SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 370 SO: 480 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 40 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/02/2021 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 12/02/2021 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SO: 220 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 12/02/2021 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SO: 95 NO: 35

48H: 13/02/2021 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 13/02/2021 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 55

72H: 14/02/2021 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/02/2021 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 240 SO: 285 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 45

120H: 16/02/2021 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 270 SO: 350 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 85

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0-;CI=5.0

FARAJI CONTINUE DE BIEN RESISTER, AVEC UNE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL
FLUCTUANTE MAIS PAR MOMENTS BIEN DEFINIE AINSI QU'UNE CONVECTION QUI
RESTE INTENSE. LE DT MOYEN SUR 3 HEURES EST A 5.0- ENTRE 03 ET 06Z.
L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES SE SITUENT ENTRE
80 ET 90 KT. L'ESTIMATION FINALE EST ESTIMEE A 80 KT.

FARAJI A TERMINE SON VIRAGE ET POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
SUD-OUEST GUIDE PAR LA DORSALE SITUEE A L'EST ET AU SUD-EST DU
SYSTEME ET EN BORDURE D'UN AXE DE BAS GEOPOTENTIELS EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE SITUE PLUS A L'OUEST.
PAS DE CHANGEMENT POUR LA SUITE : AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME,
LE FLUX DIRECTEUR REDESCEND PROGRESSIVEMENT DANS LES BASSES COUCHES
ET LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD REPREND LA MAIN SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE
INDUISANT UNE ORIENTATION EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST PLUS
MARQUEE. DIMANCHE, UNE TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST
EST ATTENDUE ALORS QUE LA DORSALE PIVOTE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. LA
PREVISION ACTUELLE SE BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES
MALGRE UNE DISPERSION MARQUEE.

FARAJI CONTINUE DE SE DIRIGER PLUS AU SUD OU REGNE UN CISAILLEMENT
PROFOND ET DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PLUS MARQUE. CELA AFFECTERA DE PLUS
EN PLUS LA STRUCTURE DU VORTEX EN APPORTANT DE L'AIR SEC A PROXIMITE
DU COEUR DU SYSTEME ET AINSI AFFAIBLIR PLUS FRANCHEMENT FARAJI. CE
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT FAIBLIR EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI MAIS L'AIR SEC
DEVRAIT DEJA ETRE BIEN INSTALLE AU DESSUS DU CENTRE DU SYSTEME ET S'Y
MAINTENIR PAR LA SUITE. L'ENVIRONNEMENT CISAILLE PLUS MARQUE DEVRAIT
PLUTOT RESTER EN LIMITE SUD DU SYSTEME AU COURS DE SON DEPLACEMENT.
AINSI, LES MODELES DISPONIBLES PROPOSENT UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
PROGRESSIF DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A DIMANCHE, POTENTIELLEMENT JUSQU'A UN
STADE TRES FAIBLE. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, AVEC UNE REAUGMENTATION DE LA
DIVERGENCE, UN AIR SEC MOINS PRESENT ET UN RENFORCEMENT DE LA
CONVERGENCE DE SURFACE COTE EQUATORIAL, UNE REINTENSIFICATION RESTE
ENVISAGEABLE. TOUTEFOIS, LES GUIDANCES SONT TRES DISPERSEES ET
FLUCTUANTES D'UN RUN A L'AUTRE. CETTE REINTENSIFICATION APPARAIT DONC
ENCORE TRES INCERTAINE POUR LE MOMENT.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

2021-02-11 07:04


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 110641
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/10/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 84.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 370 SW: 480 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/11 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2021/02/12 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2021/02/12 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 35

48H: 2021/02/13 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2021/02/13 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 55

72H: 2021/02/14 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/15 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 240 SW: 285 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 45

120H: 2021/02/16 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 270 SW: 350 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 85

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0-;CI=5.0

FARAJI CONTINUES TO HOLD UP WELL, BEARING AN EYE PATTERN AT TIMES
WELL DEFINED AND CONVECTION WHICH REMAINS INTENSE. THE 3-HOUR
AVERAGED DT IS 5.0- BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z. ALL OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE IS BETWEEN 80 AND 90 KT. THE FINAL ESTIMATE IS ESTIMATED AT
80 KT.

FARAJI HAS FINISHED ITS WESTWARD TURN AND CONTINUES ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK GUIDED BY THE RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND ON THE EDGE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
LOCATED FURTHER WEST.
IN THE COMING DAYS, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW
GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE LOWER LAYERS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH TAKES OVER THE STEERING FLOW, THUS LEADING TO A MORE WESTERLY
ORIENTATION. ON SUNDAY, A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK IS
EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOUTHWESTWARD OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN MODELS DESPITE A
MARKED DISPERSION.

FARAJI CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH WHERE A MORE PRONOUNCED DEEP
SHEAR AND MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR IS PREVALENT. THIS WILL INCREASINGLY
AFFECT THE STRUCTURE OF THE VORTEX BY BRINGING DRY AIR CLOSE TO THE
CORE OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS WEAKEN FARAJI MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS
SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN ON FRIDAY BUT THE DRY AIR SHOULD ALREADY SURROUND
THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM AND REMAIN THERE AFTERWARDS. THE HIGHER
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES. THUS, THE AVAILABLE MODELS PROPOSE A PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING
OF THE SYSTEM UNTIL SUNDAY, POTENTIALLY TO A VERY LOW STAGE. FROM
MONDAY ONWARDS, WITH AN INCREASE IN DIVERGENCE, LESS DRY AIR AND A
STRENGTHENING OF THE CONVERGENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL SURFACE, A
REINTENSIFICATION REMAINS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, GUIDANCES ARE VERY
SCATTERED AND FLUCTUATE FROM ONE RUN TO THE OTHER. THIS
REINTENSIFICATION THEREFORE STILL APPEARS VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THE
MOMENT.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED AREAS
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

2021-02-11 06:25


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 110624
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/02/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 11/02/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI) 968 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 84.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 260 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/11 AT 18 UTC:
16.9 S / 83.8 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/12 AT 06 UTC:
17.5 S / 82.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-11 00:19


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 110012
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/10/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 11/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.1 S / 85.1 E
(SEIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/02/2021 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 84.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 295 SO: 250 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 12/02/2021 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 35

36H: 12/02/2021 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 215 SO: 150 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SO: 65 NO: 75

48H: 13/02/2021 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 35

60H: 13/02/2021 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 35

72H: 14/02/2021 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/02/2021 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 215 SO: 150 NO: 55

120H: 16/02/2021 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 65

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0

L'AMORCE D'UNE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DEBUTEE IL Y A 6 HEURES S'EST
CONFIRMEE. DU FAIT DU CISAILLEMENT PRESENT, L'OEIL EST RESTE ASSEZ
FROID MAIS AVEC DES SOMMETS ALENTOUR BIEN FROIDS. LES FLUCTUATIONS DE
LA TEMPERATURE DES SOMMETS DE L'ANNEAU MONTRENT BIEN UN EFFET
GRANDISSANT DU CISAILLEMENT. LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES DE 2230UTC
MONTRENT ENCORE UNE BELLE CIRCULATION D'ALTITUDE MAIS LE VORTEX DE
BASSES COUCHES EST MOINS BIEN DEFINI AVEC UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LE
SECTEUR NORD. L'ANALYSE DVORAK VIA UN SUIVI FIN DE LA CONFIGURATION
EN OIEL EST REVUE UN PEU A LA HAUSSE A 5.0 ALORS QUE LES ANALYSES
OBJECTIVES SONT PLUS BASSES. PAR CETTE ANALYSE, IL EST POSSIBLE
D'ESTIMER DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 80KT. FARAJI RESISTE BIEN.

FARAJI A ENTAME SON VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST GUIDE PAR LA DORSALE
EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. LA PLUPART DES MODELES SONT MAINTENANT UN
PEU PLUS EN ACCORD SUR L'ASPECT DE CE VIRAGE MONTRANT AUSSI UN
MEILLEUR ACCORD EN TERME DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE DU FAIT DU LIEN
ETROIT ENTRE LA VITESSE DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LA TRAJECTOIRE. PAS
DE CHANGEMENT POUR LA SUITE : LE FLUX DIRECTEUR REDESCEND
PROGRESSIVEMENT DANS LES BASSES COUCHES ET LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
SUD REPREND LA MAIN SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE INDUISANT UNE ORIENTATION VERS
LE OUEST-SUD-OUEST PLUS MARQUEE. DIMANCHE, UNE TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME
VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EST ATTENDUE ALORS QUE LA DORSALE PIVOTE AU
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE SE BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS
DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES.

FARAJI CONTINUE DE SE DIRIGER PLUS AU SUD OU REGNE UN CISAILLEMENT
PROFOND ET DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PLUS MARQUE. CELA AFFECTERA DE PLUS
EN PLUS LA STRUCTURE DU VORTEX EN APPORTANT DE L'AIR SEC A PROXIMITE
DU COEUR DU SYSTEME ET AINSI AFFAIBLIR PLUS FRANCHEMENT FARAJI. CE
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT FAIBLIR EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI MAIS L'AIR SEC
DEVRAIT DEJA ETRE BIEN INSTALLE AU DESSUS DU CENTRE DU SYSTEME ET S'Y
MAINTENIR PAR LA SUITE. L'ENVIRONNEMENT CISAILLE PLUS MARQUE DEVRAIT
PLUTOT RESTER EN LIMITE SUD DU SYSTEME AU COURS DE SON DEPLACEMENT.
AINSI, LES MODELES DISPONIBLES PROPOSENT UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
PROGRESSIF DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A DIMANCHE, PROBABLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE
DE DEPRESSION TROPICALE. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, AVEC UNE REAUGMENTATION
DE LA DIVERGENCE, UN AIR SEC MOINS PRESENT ET UN RENFORCEMENT DE LA
CONVERGENCE DE SURFACE COTE EQUATORIAL, UNE REINTENSIFICATION RESTE
ENVISAGEABLE. EN CONSEQUENCE, LA PREVISION DU CMRS REMONTE AU STADE
DE TEMPETE TROPICALE A ECHEANCE DE 5 JOURS.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

2021-02-11 00:19


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 110012
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/10/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 85.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/11 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 84.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2021/02/12 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 35

36H: 2021/02/12 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 65 NW: 75

48H: 2021/02/13 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 35

60H: 2021/02/13 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 35

72H: 2021/02/14 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/15 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 55

120H: 2021/02/16 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

THE START OF AN EYE PATTERN CONFIGURATION STARTED 6 HOURS AGO HAS
BEEN CONFIRMED. BECAUSE OF THE PRESENT SHEAR, THE EYE IS STILL QUITE
COLD BUT WITH COLD TOPS AROUND. THE TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS OF THE
RING TOPS SHOW A GROWING EFFECT OF THE SHEAR. THE MICROWAVE DATA OF
2230UTC STILL SHOW A NICE HIGH ALTITUDE CIRCULATION BUT THE LOW LAYER
VORTEX IS LESS WELL DEFINED WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR.
THE DVORAK ANALYSIS, USING A FINE MONITORING OF THE RING
CONFIGURATION, IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO 5.0 WHILE THE OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES ARE LOWER. BY THIS ANALYSIS, IT IS POSSIBLE TO ESTIMATE
WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 80KT. FARAJI RESISTS WELL.

FARAJI HAS BEGUN ITS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST GUIDED BY THE EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOW A LITTLE MORE IN
AGREEMENT ON THE ASPECT OF THIS TURN SHOWING ALSO A BETTER AGREEMENT
IN TERMS OF FORECAST INTENSITY PREDICTION DUE TO THE CLOSE LINK
BETWEEN THE WEAKENING RATE AND THE TRACK. NO CHANGE FOR THE REST OF
THE TRACK: THE STEERING FLOW GRADUALLY DESCENDS IN THE LOWER LAYERS
AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH TAKES OVER THE TRACK INDUCING
A MORE MARKED WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION. ON SUNDAY, A WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK IS EXPECTED WHILE THE RIDGE PIVOTS SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN MODELS.

FARAJI CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH WHERE DEEP SHEAR AND STRONGER
MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR IS PREVALENT. THIS WILL INCREASINGLY AFFECT THE
STRUCTURE OF THE VORTEX BY BRINGING DRY AIR CLOSE TO THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM AND THUS WEAKEN FARAJI MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS SHEAR SHOULD
WEAKEN ON FRIDAY BUT THE DRY AIR SHOULD ALREADY BE WELL ABOVE THE
CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND REMAIN THERE AFTERWARDS. THE HIGHER SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES. THUS, THE AVAILABLE MODELS PROPOSE A PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM UNTIL SUNDAY, PROBABLY TO THE STAGE OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, WITH AN INCREASE IN DIVERGENCE, LESS
DRY AIR AND A STRENGTHENING OF THE EQUATORIAL SURFACE CONVERGENCE, A
REINTENSIFICATION REMAINS POSSIBLE. AS A CONSEQUENCE, THE RSMC
FORECAST GOES BACK TO THE TROPICAL STORM STAGE AT 5 DAYS.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR THE INHABITED
LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

2021-02-11 00:04


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 110004
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/02/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 11/02/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 85.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/11 AT 12 UTC:
16.4 S / 84.5 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/12 AT 00 UTC:
16.8 S / 83.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 25 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-10 20:19


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 85.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 85.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 16.3S 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.7S 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.2S 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.5S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.8S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.4S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.5S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 85.3E.
10FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 923
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED AN OVERALL
SYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND A RAGGED, ALBEIT WELL-DEFINED,
15-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE EIR LOOP, ADJUSTED FOR A SLIGHT TILT, THAT LINED UP WELL WITH
A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 101559Z AMSU-B IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON THE CONGRUENT AND CLUSTERED AGENCY DVORAK FIXES OF OF
T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW, FMEE, AND SUPPORTED BY THE OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T4.8/86KTS FROM SATCON. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
BIAS ALONG THE POLEWARD SIDE. ALONG-TRACK SST REMAIN WARM AND
CONDUCIVE AT 28C. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST UP TO TAU 24.
AFTERWARD, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY
ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT
INTENSITY UP TO TAU 12; AFTERWARD, AS THE TC TRANSITIONS TO A
WESTWARD TRACK, THE RELATIVE VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MODERATE
(15-20KTS), OFFSETTING THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS, RESULTING
IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING. BY TAU 120, TC 19S WILL BE REDUCED TO 35KTS.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENVELOPE
SPREADING TO OVER 270NM BY TAU 120 AND NAVGEM REMAINING THE NOTABLE
LEFT OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED JUST TO THE RIGHT OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NAVGEM WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-10 18:41


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 101837
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/10/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 10/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.8 S / 85.3 E
(QUINZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/02/2021 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 325 SO: 305 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 11/02/2021 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 285 SO: 240 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 35

36H: 12/02/2021 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 85 NO: 35

48H: 12/02/2021 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SO: 205 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 35

60H: 13/02/2021 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 13/02/2021 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/02/2021 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 95

120H: 15/02/2021 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SO: 85 NO: 55

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0-;CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE FARAJI
EST RESTEE DANS UNE CONFIGURATION DE CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE, AVEC
DES SOMMETS QUI RESTENT BIEN FROIDS. UNE AMORCE D'OEIL POUVANT MEME
SE FAIRE SENTIR SUR LES DERNIERS INSTANTS. AU PREMIER ABORD, IL
SEMBLE QUE FARAJI RESISTE BIEN MAIS LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDE
AMSU-B DE 1559UTC MONTRENT UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA PARTIE NORD DE LA
CIRCULATION, DEJA NOTEE LORS DU RESEAU PRECEDENT. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN
CDO DONNE UNE VALEUR DE 5.0 LAISSANT AINSI DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE
80KT.

FARAJI A ENTAME UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD, MARQUANT LE DEBUT DE SON
VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST GUIDE PAR LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE AU
NORD-EST. LE LIEN ETROIT ENTRE LA VITESSE DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LA
TRAJECTOIRE EXPLIQUE EN PARTIE LES DIFFERENCES OBSERVEES ENTRE LES
DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES. PAR LA SUITE, ALORS QUE LE FLUX DIRECTEUR
REDESCEND PROGRESSIVEMENT DANS LES BASSES COUCHES ET QUE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD REPREND LA MAIN SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE, L'ORIENTATION
VERS LE OUEST-SUD-OUEST SERA PLUS MARQUEE. DIMANCHE, UNE TRAJECTOIRE
DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EST ATTENDUE ALORS QUE LA DORSALE
PIVOTE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE SE BASE SUR UN
CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
DE SECTEUR OUEST A NORD-OUEST SE RENFORCE ET AFFECTE DE PLUS EN PLUS
LA STRUCTURE DU VORTEX EN APPORTANT DE L'AIR SEC A PROXIMITE DU COEUR
DU SYSTEME. CE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT FAIBLIR EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI
MAIS L'AIR SEC DEVRAIT DEJA ETRE BIEN INSTALLE AU DESSUS DU CENTRE DU
SYSTEME ET S'Y MAINTENIR PAR LA SUITE. L'ENVIRONNEMENT CISAILLE RESTE
LUI AUSSI OMNIPRESENT MEME SI IL FAIBLIT EN COURS DE PERIODE. AINSI,
LES MODELES DISPONIBLES PROPOSENT UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DU
SYSTEME JUSQU'A DIMANCHE, PROBABLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE DEPRESSION
TROPICALE. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, AVEC UNE REAUGMENTATION DE LA
DIVERGENCE, UN AIR SEC MOINS PRESENT ET UN RENFORCEMENT DE LA
CONVERGENCE DE SURFACE COTE EQUATORIAL, UNE REINTENSIFICATION SEMBLE
ENVISAGEABLE. EN CONSEQUENCE, LA PREVISION DU CMRS REMONTE AU STADE
DE TEMPETE TROPICALE A ECHEANCE DE 5 JOURS.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

2021-02-10 18:41


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 101837
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/10/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 85.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/11 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2021/02/11 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 35

36H: 2021/02/12 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 35

48H: 2021/02/12 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 35

60H: 2021/02/13 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2021/02/13 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/14 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 95

120H: 2021/02/15 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 55

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0-;CI=5.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION OF FARAJI REMAINED
IN A CDO PATTERN, WITH TOPS THAT REMAIN QUITE COLD. AN EYE STARTER
THAT CAN EVEN BE SEEN IN THE LAST MOMENTS. AT FIRST GLANCE, IT SEEMS
THAT FARAJI RESISTS WELL BUT THE LAST AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGES OF
1559UTC SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION,
ALREADY NOTED DURING THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IN
CDO GIVES A VALUE OF 5.0 LEAVING WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 80KT.

FARAJI HAS STARTED A SOUTHWARD SHIFT, MARKING THE BEGINNING OF HIS
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST GUIDED BY THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE CLOSE LINK BETWEEN THE SPEED OF THE WEAKENING AND THE
TRACK PARTLY EXPLAINS THE DIFFERENCES OBSERVED BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT
GUIDANCES. THEREAFTER, AS THE GUIDING FLOW GRADUALLY DESCENDS INTO
THE LOW LAYERS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH TAKES OVER THE
TRACK, THE ORIENTATION TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WILL BE MORE
MARKED. ON SUNDAY, A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
AS THE RIDGE PIVOTS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE MODERATE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR FROM WEST
TO NORTHWEST SECTOR IS STRENGTHENING AND INCREASINGLY AFFECTING THE
STRUCTURE OF THE VORTEX BY BRINGING DRY AIR NEAR THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN ON FRIDAY BUT THE DRY AIR SHOULD
ALREADY BE WELL ABOVE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND REMAIN THERE
AFTERWARDS. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALSO REMAINS OMNIPRESENT EVEN IF IT
WEAKENS DURING THE PERIOD. THUS, THE AVAILABLE MODELS PROPOSE A
PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM UNTIL SUNDAY, PROBABLY UP TO THE
STAGE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, WITH AN INCREASE
IN DIVERGENCE, LESS DRY AIR AND A STRENGTHENING OF THE CONVERGENCE OF
THE EQUATORIAL SURFACE, A REINTENSIFICATION SEEMS POSSIBLE. AS A
CONSEQUENCE, THE RSMC FORECAST GOES BACK TO THE TROPICAL STORM STAGE
AT 5 DAYS.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR THE INHABITED
LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

2021-02-10 18:06


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 101804
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/02/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 10/02/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI) 968 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 85.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/11 AT 06 UTC:
16.3 S / 84.8 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/11 AT 18 UTC:
16.6 S / 84.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-10 14:10


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 101353
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/10/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 10/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.5 S / 85.3 E
(QUINZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 962 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 80 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/02/2021 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SO: 250 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 11/02/2021 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 35

36H: 12/02/2021 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 65

48H: 12/02/2021 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SO: 85 NO: 35

60H: 13/02/2021 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 30 NO: 35

72H: 13/02/2021 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 30 SO: 20 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/02/2021 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 15/02/2021 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SO: 175 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 35

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5;CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE FARAJI
S'EST DE NOUVEAU DEGRADEE, AVEC UN OEIL DISPARAISSANT SUR L'IMAGERIE
INFRAROUGE, MASQUE PAR DES BURSTS CONVECTIFS INTENSES DANS LE MUR DE
L'OEIL SUD. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDE MONTRENT UN COEUR ENCORE
INTENSE ET COMPACT MAIS FAISANT APPARAITRE UNE ASSYMETRIE NORD-SUD,
AVEC UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD. DE PLUS, UN ARC DE
CIRRUS SEMBLE VISIBLE SUR L'IMAGERIE INFRAROUGE DANS LE QUADRANT
NORD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. CES ELEMENTS TEMOIGNENT DE LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT PROFOND DANS L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE FARAJI.
L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN CDO DONNE UN DT PROCHE DE 4.5 SUR LES DERNIERES
HEURES MAIS LE COEUR ENCORE INTENSE DU PHENOMENE AINSI QUE L'INERTIE
DU SYSTEME PLAIDENT POUR LAISSER UNE INTENSITE SEMBLABLE A 06UTC,
C'EST-A-DIRE A 85KT.

FARAJI SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST SUR LA FACE SUD DE
LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST ET AMORCE UN DEMI-TOUR PROGRESSIF
VERS L'OUEST QUI SE FERA AU COURS DES 24 PROCHAINES HEURES, ALORS QUE
LE FLUX DIRECTEUR REDESCEND PROGRESSIVEMENT DANS LES BASSES COUCHES
ET QUE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD REPREND LA MAIN SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU PHENOMENE. L'INCERTITUDE RESTE ASSEZ GRANDE SUR LE
TIMING ET LE RAYON DE COURBURE DE CE VIRAGE. LE LIEN ETROIT ENTRE LA
VITESSE DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LA TRAJECTOIRE EXPLIQUE EN PARTIE LES
DIFFERENCES OBSERVEES ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES.
DIMANCHE, UNE REMONTEE DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST/NORD-OUEST EST
ATTENDUE ALORS QUE LA DORSALE PIVOTE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. LA
PREVISION ACTUELLE SE BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
DE SECTEUR OUEST A NORD-OUEST VA SE RENFORCER ET AFFECTER DE PLUS EN
PLUS LA STRUCTURE DU VORTEX ET APPORTER DE L'AIR SEC A PROXIMITE DU
COEUR DU SYSTEME. CE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT FAIBLIR EN JOURNEE DE
VENDREDI MAIS L'AIR SEC DEVRAIT DEJA ETRE BIEN INSTALLE AU DESSUS DU
CENTRE DU SYSTEME ET S'Y MAINTENIR PAR LA SUITE. FARAJI RESTE
EGALEMENT EN LIMITE EST D'UNE ZONE DE CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE SUR LA
PERIODE, QUI POURRAIT L'AFFECTER TEMPORAIREMENT. AINSI, LES MODELES
DISPONIBLES PROPOSENT UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DU SYSTEME
JUSQU'A DIMANCHE, PROBABLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE DEPRESSION
TROPICALE.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI, AVEC UNE REAUGMENTATION DE LA DIVERGENCE, UN AIR
SEC MOINS PRESENT ET UN RENFORCEMENT DE LA CONVERGENCE DE SURFACE
COTE EQUATORIAL, UNE REINTENSIFICATION SEMBLE ENVISAGEABLE. EN
CONSEQUENCE, LA PREVISION DU CMRS REMONTE AU STADE DE TEMPETE
TROPICALE A PARTIR DE LUNDI.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS ACTUELLEMENT DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

2021-02-10 14:10


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 101353
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/10/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 85.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/11 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2021/02/11 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 35

36H: 2021/02/12 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 65

48H: 2021/02/12 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 35

60H: 2021/02/13 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 30 NW: 35

72H: 2021/02/13 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 30 SW: 20 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/14 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2021/02/15 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 175 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 35

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5;CI=5.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, FARAJI'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED AGAIN,
WITH THE EYE DISAPPEARING ON INFRARED IMAGES, MASKED BY INTENSE
CONVECTIVE BURSTS IN THE SOUTH EYE WALL. THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGES
SHOW A STILL INTENSE AND COMPACT CORE, BUT WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
ASYMMETRY, WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION, A
CIRRUS ARC SEEMS VISIBLE ON INFRARED IMAGERY IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THESE ELEMENTS ARE EVIDENCE OF THE INCREASING
DEEP SHEAR IN FARAJI'S ENVIRONMENT.
THE CDO DVORAK ANALYSIS GIVES A DT CLOSE TO 4.5 OVER THE LAST HOURS
BUT THE STILL INTENSE CORE AND THE INERTIA OF THE SYSTEM SUGGESTS AN
INTENSITY SIMILAR TO 06UTC, I.E. 85KT.

FARAJI IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE SOUTH FACE OF
THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS NORTHEAST AND IS STARTING A
PROGRESSIVE WESTWARD U-TURN WHICH WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, AS THE STEERING FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TAKES OVER THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE LARGE ON THE TIMING AND THE CURVATURE
RADIUS OF THIS U-TURN. THE CLOSE LINK BETWEEN THE RATE OF WEAKENING
AND THE TRACK PARTLY EXPLAINS THE DIFFERENCES OBSERVED BETWEEN THE
DIFFERENT GUIDANCES.
ON SUNDAY, A WEST/NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WHILE
THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE MODERATE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-SHEAR WILL
STRENGTHEN AND INCREASINGLY AFFECT THE STRUCTURE OF THE VORTEX AND
BRING DRY AIR NEAR THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN
ON FRIDAY BUT DRY AIR SHOULD ALREADY SURROUND THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM AND REMAIN THERE AFTERWARDS. FARAJI ALSO REMAINS ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF AN ALTITUDE SHEAR ZONE OVER THE PERIOD, WHICH COULD
TEMPORARILY AFFECT IT. THUS, THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM UNTIL SUNDAY, PROBABLY TO THE STAGE
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, WITH AN INCREASE IN DIVERGENCE, MOISTER AT
MID-LEVELS AND A STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EQUATORWARD,
SOME REINTENSIFICATION SEEMS POSSIBLE. AS A CONSEQUENCE, THE RSMC
FORECAST SHOWS AN INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STAGE ON MONDAY.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY PARTICULAR THREAT FOR THE INHABITED
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

2021-02-10 12:30


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 101227
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/02/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 10/02/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI) 962 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 85.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/11 AT 00 UTC:
16.1 S / 85.1 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/11 AT 12 UTC:
16.5 S / 84.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-10 08:29


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 85.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 85.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.9S 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 16.3S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.6S 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.1S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.5S 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.5S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.8S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 85.0E.
10FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 888
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED AN IMPROVED STRUCUTRE WITH A WEAK, BUT WELL DEFINED,
EYE FEATURE IN THE VISIBLE AND WARM SPOT IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY.
HOWEVER, SUBSEQUENT IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE HAS FILLED
IN AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) REMAINS OBSCURED BY THE DEEP CORE CONVECTION, AND THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS PLACED WITH ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE VERY WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A
100330Z AMSU-B 89GHZ IMAGE. THE INTIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 95KT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KTS) FROM PGTW, T5.5 (102 KTS) FROM FMEE AND
AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T4.9. TC FARAJI IS CURRENTLY MOVING VERY SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST, THROUGH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KT) VWS AND WARM (28-29C)
SSTS, BEING SOMEWHAT CONSTRAINED BY THE LACK OF DISTINCT OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. OVER THE NEXT 12-48 HOURS, THE STR TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO BUILD WHILE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD, LEADING TC 19S
TO SLOWLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS WELL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VERY STEADY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH ONLY SMALL INCREASES
IN VWS, RESULTING IN A VERY SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 48. IN
THE FIRST 48 HOURS, SHORT-TERM EXCUSIONS BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW THE
MEAN INTENSITY TREND CAN BE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO SHORT DURATION
CHANGES IN THE LOCALIZED ENVIRONMENT AND DIURNAL EFFECTS. HOWEVER,
THE OVERALL INTENSITY TREND WILL BE WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BY TAU 72, THE STR BUILDS AND MOVES TO A POSITION TO THE
SOUTH OF TC 19S, LEADING TO A GENERALLY WEST TO SLIGHTLY WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AFTER TAU 72, WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT COMBINING TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
AT MUCH HIGHER RATE BETWEEN TAUS 72-120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
AGREES ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO BUT DEPICTS A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TURN TOWARDS THE WEST,
WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING A VERY TIGHT TURN AND THE NAVGEM
FORECASTING A MUCH SHALLOWER TURN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS
MEMBERS FOR A RELATIVELY TIGHT ENVELOPE WHICH SLIGHTLY FAVORS THE
SHARPER TURN SCENARIO, BUT WITH A SPREAD OF 440NM BETWEEN OUTLIERS
AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED JUST WEST AND NORTH
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
HIGH UNCERTAINTY DEPICTED IN THE GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-10 07:44


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 100734
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/10/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 10/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 85.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 962 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 80 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/02/2021 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SO: 280 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 11/02/2021 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 11/02/2021 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SO: 220 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 65

48H: 12/02/2021 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SO: 250 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 65

60H: 12/02/2021 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 175 SO: 205 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 35

72H: 13/02/2021 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/02/2021 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

120H: 15/02/2021 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 85

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE FARAJI S'EST NETTEMENT AMELIOREE AU
COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, AVEC L'EMERGENCE D'UN OEIL TRES
DISTINCT EN IMAGERIE INFRAROUGE ET VISIBLE. CET OEIL EST ENTOURE
D'UNE CONVECTION VIGOUREUSE AU SEIN DE LAQUELLE UNE ACTIVITE
ELECTRIQUE EST DETECTEE. LES DERNIERES MICRO-ONDES (AMSU-B DE 0327Z)
MONTRENT UNE AMELIORATION DE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE AVEC UN COEUR
ORGANISE ET COMPACT. L'ANALYSE DVORAK BASEE SUR LA CONFIGURATION EN
OEIL DONNE UNE ESTIMATION PROCHE DE T5.5 SUR LES DERNIERES HEURES.
L'INTENSITE EST PAR CONSEQUENT MAINTENUE A 85KT.

FARAJI SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST SUR LA FACE SUD DE LA
DORSALE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. FARAJI DEVRAIT EFFECTUER UN
DEMI-TOUR PROGRESSIF VERS L'OUEST AU COURS DES 36 PROCHAINES HEURES,
ALORS QUE LE FLUX DIRECTEUR REDESCEND DANS LES BASSES COUCHES ET QUE
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD REPREND LA MAIN SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DU
PHENOMENE. L'INCERTITUDE RESTE ASSEZ GRANDE SUR CE SCENARIO, ENTRE UN
VIRAGE ASSEZ RESSERRE COMME LE PROPOSE IFS OU RELATIVEMENT LARGE
(UKMO, GFS).
LE LIEN ETROIT ENTRE LA VITESSE DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LA
TRAJECTOIRE EXPLIQUE EN PARTIE CES DIFFERENCES.
DIMANCHE, UNE REMONTEE VERS L'OUEST/NORD-OUEST EST ATTENDUE ALORS QUE
LA DORSALE PIVOTE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE SE
BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, MEME SI FARAJI RESISTE ACTUELLEMENT AUX EFFETS
DU CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DE SECTEUR OUEST A
NORD-OUEST, CE DERNIER DEVRAIT COMMENCER A AFFECTER LA VERTICALITE DU
VORTEX ET APPORTER DE L'AIR SEC A PROXIMITE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME A
PARTIR DE CE SOIR. LE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPO DEVRAIT FAIBLIR
EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI MAIS L'AIR SEC DEVRAIT DEJA ETRE BIEN INSTALLE
AU DESSUS DU CENTRE DU SYSTEME ET S'Y MAINTENIR PAR LA SUITE. FARAJI
RESTE EGALEMENT EN LIMITE EST D'UNE ZONE DE CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE
SUR LA PERIODE, QUI POURRAIT L'AFFECTER TEMPORAIREMENT. AINSI, LES
MODELES DISPONIBLES PROPOSENT UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DU
SYSTEME JUSQU'A DIMANCHE.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI, AVEC UNE REAUGMENTATION DE LA DIVERGENCE ET UN AIR
SEC MOINS PRESENT, UNE REINTENSIFICATION COMMENCE A ETRE ENVISAGEE
PAR CERTAINES GUIDANCES. CEPENDANT IL RESTE DE FORTES INCERTITUDES
SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME DONC SUR SON ENVIRONNEMENT, D'OU UNE
PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTANT MODEREE.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS ACTUELLEMENT DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

2021-02-10 07:44


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 100734
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/10/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 85.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/10 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/02/11 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2021/02/11 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 65

48H: 2021/02/12 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 65

60H: 2021/02/12 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 175 SW: 205 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 35

72H: 2021/02/13 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 150 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/14 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

120H: 2021/02/15 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

FARAJI'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 6
HOURS, WITH THE EMERGENCE OF A VERY DISTINCT EYE IN INFRARED AND
VISIBLE IMAGERY. THIS EYE IS SURROUNDED BY INTENSE CONVECTION IN
WHICH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS DETECTED. THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGES
(AMSU-B AT 0327Z) SHOW AN IMPROVEMENT OF THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE WITH
AN ORGANIZED AND COMPACT CORE. DVORAK ANALYSIS GIVES AN ESTIMATE
CLOSE TO T5.5 OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE
MAINTAINED AT 85KT.

FARAJI IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARDS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. FARAJI SHOULD MAKE A GRADUAL
U-TURN OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS, AS THE STEERING FLOW COMES DOWN TO LOWER
LEVELS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PROGRESSIVELY TAKES OVER. THE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH ON THIS SCENARIO, BETWEEN A TIGHT TURN
SUGGESTED BY IFS AND A WIDER TURN FORECAST BY UKMO AND GFS. THE TIGHT
LINK BETWEEN THE WEAKENING SPEED AND THE TRACK PARTLY EXPLAINS THESE
DIFFERENCES. SUNDAY, A WEST/NORTHWESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED AS THE
RIDGE SHOULD PIVOT SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN GUIDANCES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, EVEN THOUGH FARAJI IS CURRENTLY RESISTING TO
THE EFFECTS OF MODERATE A WEST/NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR, THE
LATTER SHOULD START TO AFFECT THE VERTICALITY OF THE VORTEX AND BRING
DRY AIR NEAR THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM STARTING TONIGHT. THE MID-SHEAR
SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY VANISH FROM FRIDAY BUT DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO
ALREADY BE INSTALLED OVER THE CENTER AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. FARAJI ALSO TRACKS ON THE EASTERN BORDER OF A
MODERATE UPPER SHEAR AREA ON THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, THAT MAY
AFFECT IT TEMPORARILY. THUS, THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT TO SUGGEST A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM UNTIL SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY, WITH AN INCREASE IN THE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MOISTER
MID-LEVELS, A REINTENSIFICATION BEGINS TO BE SUGGESTED BY SOME
MODELS. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL STRONG UNCERTAINTIES ON THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM AND THEREFORE ON ITS ENVIRONMENT, HENCE AN
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINING QUITE CONSERVATIVE.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY PARTICULAR THREAT FOR THE INHABITED
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

2021-02-10 06:30


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 100629
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/02/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 10/02/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI) 962 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 85.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/10 AT 18 UTC:
15.9 S / 85.4 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/11 AT 06 UTC:
16.3 S / 85.0 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-10 00:32


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 100020
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/10/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 10/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.0 S / 84.8 E
(QUINZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 962 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SO: 230 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 75 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SO: 90 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/02/2021 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 305 SO: 285 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

24H: 11/02/2021 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 85.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

36H: 11/02/2021 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 12/02/2021 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 12/02/2021 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SO: 230 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 65

72H: 13/02/2021 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/02/2021 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 35

120H: 15/02/2021 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 35

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5+;CI=5.5-

PEU D'EVOLUTION DE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE FARAJI AU COURS DES
DERNIERES HEURES, AVEC UN CDO AUX SOMMETS FROIDS AU SEIN DU QUEL UN
POINT CHAUD APPARAIT TEMPORAIREMENT. L'IMAGE SSMIS DE 2246Z MONTRE
QUE L'ANNEAU DE CONVECTION A ETE REMPLACE PAR UNE BANDE INCURVEE
S'ENROULANT D'UN TOUR ET DEMI AUTOUR DU CENTRE. UN TILT RESTE
DETECTABLE ENTRE LES IMAGES 37GHZ ET 89GHZ. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE
DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR L'ANALYSE DVORAK, EN ACCORD AVEC LES
ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES.

FARAJI SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST SUR LA FACE SUD DE LA
DORSALE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. FARAJI DEVRAIT EFFECTUER UN
DEMI-TOUR PROGRESSIF VERS L'OUEST AU COURS DES 48 PROCHAINES HEURES,
ALORS QUE LE FLUX DIRECTEUR REDESCEND DANS LES BASSES COUCHES ET QUE
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD REPREND LA MAIN SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DU
PHENOMENE. L'INCERTITUDE RESTE ASSEZ GRANDE SUR CE SCENARIO, ENTRE UN
VIRAGE ASSEZ RESSERRE COMME LE PROPOSE IFS OU RELATIVEMENT LARGE
(UKMO, GFS).
LE LIEN ETROIT ENTRE LA VITESSE DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LA
TRAJECTOIRE EXPLIQUE EN PARTIE CES DIFFERENCES.
DIMANCHE, UNE REMONTEE VERS LE NORD-OUEST EST ATTENDUE ALORS QUE LA
DORSALE PIVOTE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE SE BASE
SUR UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES.

FARAJI SUBIT LES EFFETS D'UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE DE SECTEUR OUEST QUI AFFECTE LA VERTICALITE DU VORTEX ET
APPORTE DE L'AIR SEC A PROXIMITE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME. LE CISAILLEMENT
DE MOYENNE TROPO DEVRAIT FAIBLIR EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI MAIS L'AIR
SEC DEVRAIT DEJA ETRE BIEN INSTALLE AU DESSUS DU CENTRE DU SYSTEME ET
S'Y MAINTENIR PAR LA SUITE. FARAJI RESTE EGALEMENT EN LIMITE EST
D'UNE ZONE DE CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE SUR LA PERIODE, QUI POURRAIT
L'AFFECTER TEMPORAIREMENT. AINSI, LES MODELES DISPONIBLES PROPOSENT
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A SAMEDI.
A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE/LUNDI, AVEC UNE REAUGMENTATION DE LA DIVERGENCE
ET UN AIR SEC MOINS PRESENT, UNE REINTENSIFICATION COMMENCE A ETRE
ENVISAGEE PAR CERTAINES GUIDANCES.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS ACTUELLEMENT DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

2021-02-10 00:32


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 100020
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/10/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 84.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 75 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 90 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/10 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 305 SW: 285 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

24H: 2021/02/11 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 85.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/11 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2021/02/12 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2021/02/12 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 65

72H: 2021/02/13 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/14 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 35

120H: 2021/02/15 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 35

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+;CI=5.5-

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, WITH A
CDO ASSOCIATED TO COLD CLOUD TOPS, WITHIN WHICH A WARM SPOT
TEMPORARILY APPEARS. THE 2246Z SSMIS REVEALS THAT THE CONVECTION
INNER RING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A CURVED BAND WRAPPING 1.5 AROUND THE
CENTER. A TILT IS STILL OBSERVED BETWEEN THE 37GHZ AND 89GHZ IMAGES.
THE RMSC INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ANALYSIS, IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.

FARAJI CURRENTLY TRACKS SOUTH-EASTWARDS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. FARAJI SHOULD MAKE A GRADUAL
U-TURN OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS, AS THE STEERING FLOW COMES DOWN TO LOWER
LEVELS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PROGRESSIVELY TAKES OVER. THE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH ON THIS SCENARIO, BETWEEN A TIGHT TURN
SUGGESTED BY IFS AND A WIDER TURN FORECASTED BY UKMO AND GFS. THE
TIGHT LINK BETWEEN THE WEAKENING SPEED AND THE TRACK PARTLY EXPLAINS
THESE DIFFERENCES. SUNDAY, A NORTHWESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED AS THE
RIDGE SHOULD PIVOT SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN GUIDANCES.

FARAJI CURRENTLY UNDERGOES A MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR THAT
AFFECTS THE VERTICALITY OF THE VORTEX AND BRINGS DRY AIR IN THE
VICINITY OF THE INNER CORE. THE MID-SHEAR SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY VANISH
FROM FRIDAY BUT DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ALREADY BE INSTALLED OVER THE
CENTER AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FARAJI
ALSO TRACKS ON THE EASTERN BORDER OF A MODERATE UPPER SHEAR AREA ON
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, THAT MAY AFFECT IT TEMPORARILY. THUS, THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT TO SUGGEST A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM UNTIL SATURDAY.
FROM SUNDAY/MONDAY, WITH AN INCREASE IN THE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
MOISTER MID-LEVELS, A REINTENSIFICATION BEGINS TO BE SUGGESTED BY
SOME MODELS.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY PARTICULAR THREAT FOR THE INHABITED
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

2021-02-10 00:11


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 100009
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/02/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 10/02/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI) 962 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 84.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 280 NM WITHIN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANTS.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANTS.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 125 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/10 AT 12 UTC:
15.5 S / 85.3 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/11 AT 00 UTC:
16.0 S / 85.2 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-09 20:55


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 14.6S 84.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 84.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.2S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.7S 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 16.1S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.4S 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.9S 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.1S 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.9S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 84.9E.
09FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
848 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE
PREVIOUS EYE HAS FILLED WITH CLOUDS AND FULLY COLLAPSED. HOWEVER, AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 091622Z MHS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE LENDS GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5-6.0 (102-115 KTS, PGTW/FMEE), AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 105 KTS, AND A SATELLITE
CONSENSUS OF 109 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE 34- AND 50-KNOT WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON A 091623Z BULLSEYE ASCAT IMAGE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 19S IS TRACKING THROUGH AN OVERALL
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY LIMITED EASTWARD OUTFLOW. TC 19S HAS BEGUN TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST BEGINS TO TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM AND THUS
LIMIT FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS. THIS STR IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE
SYSTEM TO A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARDS, TC
19S SHOULD TURN TO A WESTWARD TRACK AS A STR TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO
BUILD. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO
STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND GENERALLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. SHORT DURATION BURSTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR ON A DIURNAL CYCLE, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO FLUCTUATIONS IN THE
INTENSITY. NEVERTHELESS, THE OVERALL INTENSITY TREND WILL BE
WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO. HOWEVER,
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TURN TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST LEND SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. THESE
VARIATIONS ARE LARGELY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE RATE OF THE SYSTEM
WEAKENING AND THE LEVEL OF STEERING FLOW. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 36 AND
THEN NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TO
OFFSET NAVGEM (A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER TO THE SOUTH). OVERALL, THERE
IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND
102100Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-09 18:27


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 091813
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/10/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 09/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.7 S / 84.7 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 958 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SO: 230 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 75 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SO: 90 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/02/2021 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 85.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 250 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 10/02/2021 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 305 SO: 285 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

36H: 11/02/2021 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 85.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 11/02/2021 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 12/02/2021 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 75

72H: 12/02/2021 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SO: 230 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/02/2021 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 175 SO: 220 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 65

120H: 14/02/2021 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SO: 195 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 65

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0 CI=5.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA PRESENTATION SATELLITE DE FARAJI
A CONTINUE A SE DEGRADER AVEC QUELQUES APPARITIONS EPHEMERES D'UN
POINT CHAUD MATERIALISANT LE CENTRE DE CIRCULATION, SUR LA MOITIE EST
D'UN CDO AUX SOMMETS TRES FROIDS. LA PASSE SMAP DE 1218Z FAIT ETAT
D'UN VMAX A 95KT. LA PASSE GMI DE 1305Z MONTRE ENCORE UN COEUR
RELATIVEMENT SOLIDE MAIS AVEC UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LE QUADRANT
NORD-OUEST, AINSI QU'UN DECALAGE ASSEZ MARQUE DE L'ANNEAU DE MOYENNE
TROPO VERS LE NORD-EST PAR RAPPORT AUX BASSES COUCHES (37GHZ).

FARAJI SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST SUR LA FACE SUD DE LA
DORSALE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. FARAJI DEVRAIT EFFECTUER UN
DEMI-TOUR PROGRESSIF VERS L'OUEST AU COURS DES 48 PROCHAINES HEURES,
ALORS QUE LE FLUX DIRECTEUR REDESCEND DANS LES BASSES COUCHES ET QUE
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD REPREND LA MAIN SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DU
PHENOMENE. L'INCERTITUDE RESTE ASSEZ GRANDE SUR CE SCENARIO, ENTRE UN
VIRAGE ASSEZ RESSERRE COMME LE PROPOSE IFS OU RELATIVEMENT LARGE
(UKMO, GFS).
LE LIEN ETROIT ENTRE LA VITESSE DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LA
TRAJECTOIRE EXPLIQUE EN PARTIE CES DIFFERENCES. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE
SE BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES.

FARAJI SUBIT LES EFFETS D'UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE QUI AFFECTE LA VERTICALITE DU VORTEX ET APPORTE DE L'AIR
SEC A PROXIMITE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME. LE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPO
FAIBLIT EN JOURNEE DE JEUDI MAIS L'AIR SEC DEVRAIT DEJA ETRE BIEN
INSTALLE AU DESSUS DU CENTRE DU SYSTEME ET S'Y MAINTENIR PAR LA
SUITE. FARAJI RESTE EGALEMENT EN LIMITE EST D'UNE ZONE DE
CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE SUR LA PERIODE, QUI POURRAIT L'AFFECTER
TEMPORAIREMENT. AINSI, LES MODELES DISPONIBLES PROPOSENT UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A SAMEDI.
A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, AVEC UNE REAUGMENTATION DE LA DIVERGENCE ET UN
AIR SEC MOINS PRESENT, UNE REINTENSIFICATION COMMENCE A ETRE
ENVISAGEE PAR CERTAINES GUIDANCES.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS ACTUELLEMENT DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS.=

>

2021-02-09 18:27


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 091813
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/10/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 84.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 75 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 90 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/10 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 85.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/02/10 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 305 SW: 285 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/11 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 85.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2021/02/11 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2021/02/12 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 75

72H: 2021/02/12 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/13 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 175 SW: 220 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 65

120H: 2021/02/14 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 195 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, THE CLOUD PATTERN KEPT ON DETERIORATING WITH
SOME SHORT APPEARANCES OF A WARM SPOT MATERAILIZING THE CIRCULATION
CENTER, ON THE EASTERN HALF OF A CDO ASSOCIATED TO VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS. THE 1218Z SMAP SWATH SUGGESTED A MAX WINDS OF 95KT. THE 1305Z
GMI IMAGE STILL SHOWS A WELL-CONSTITUTED INNER CORE STRUCTURE, WITH A
WEAKNESS IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, AS WELL AS A CLEAR
NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT BETWEEN THE 89GHZ AND 37GHZ IMAGES.

FARAJI CURRENTLY TRACKS SOUTH-EASTWARDS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. FARAJI SHOULD MAKE A GRADUAL
U-TURN OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS, AS THE STEERING FLOW COMES DOWN TO LOWER
LEVELS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PROGRESSIVELY TAKES OVER. THE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH ON THIS SCENARIO, BETWEEN A TIGHT TURN
SUGGESTED BY IFS AND A WIDER TURN FORECASTED BY UKMO AND GFS. THE
TIGHT LINK BETWEEN THE WEAKENING SPEED AND THE TRACK PARTLY EXPLAINS
THESE DIFFERENCES. CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
THE MAIN GUIDANCES.

FARAJI CURRENTLY UNDERGOES A MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHEAR THAT AFFECTS
THE VERTICALITY OF THE VORTEX AND BRINGS DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF
THE INNER CORE. THE MID-SHEAR SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY VANISH FROM
THURSDAY BUT DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ALREADY BE WELL IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTER AND MAINTAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FARAJI
ALSO TRACKS ON THE EASTERN BORDER OF A MODERATE UPPER SHEAR AREA ON
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, THAT MAY AFFECT IT TEMPORARILY. THUS, THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT TO SUGGEST A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM UNTIL SATURDAY.
FROM SUNDAY, WITH AN INCREASE IN THE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MOISTER
MID-LEVELS, A REINTENSIFICATION BEGINS TO BE SUGGESTED BY SOME
MODELS.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY PARTICULAR THREAT FOR THE INHABITED
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

>

2021-02-09 18:04


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 091802
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 09/02/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI) 958 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 84.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM WITHIN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANTS.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANTS.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 125 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/10 AT 06 UTC:
15.3 S / 85.5 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/10 AT 18 UTC:
15.9 S / 85.7 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-09 13:14


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 091257
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/10/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 09/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.2 S / 84.3 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 280 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 80 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/02/2021 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 250 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

24H: 10/02/2021 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 305 SO: 285 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

36H: 11/02/2021 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 11/02/2021 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 75

60H: 12/02/2021 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 75

72H: 12/02/2021 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SO: 230 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/02/2021 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 175 SO: 220 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 65

120H: 14/02/2021 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SO: 195 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 35

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5 CI=6.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, L'OEIL DE FARAJI EST TOTALEMENT
RECOUVERT PAR LES NUAGES D'ALTITUDE, EN RAISON DE LA MISE EN PLACE
D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE COMME SUGGERE PAR LES
ANALYSES DU CIMMS. LA CONVECTION EST TOUJOURS BIEN MARQUEE AVEC DES
SOMMETS FROIDS QUI SE DESORGANISENT AUTOUR DU CENTRE SUPPOSE. EN
L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES ASCAT ET DE MICRO-ONDES RECENTES, LA
LOCALISATION DU CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES RESTE DELICATE.
LES DERNIERES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES MONTRENT UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. AUSSI, L'INTENSITE A ETE ABAISSEE A 100
KT.

FARAJI SE DEPLACE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
EQUATORIALE. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME,
LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DESCEND A UN NIVEAU INFERIEUR ET FARAJI EST REPRIS
PAR LE BORD OCCIDENTAL D'UNE DORSALE SITUEE PLUS A L'EST QUI TEND A
SE RENFORCER, CE QUI DES MERCREDI PROCHAIN, TEND A RALENTIR LA
PROGRESSION DU SYSTEME. EN FIN DE SEMAINE LE METEORE PREND UNE
DIRECTION GENERALE VERS L'OUEST, SOUS L'EMPRISE D'UNE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD. AU VU DU LIEN ETROIT ENTRE LA VITESSE DE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LA TRAJECTOIRE, LA PREVISION EST
PARTICULIEREMENT INCERTAINE, SUR LA CHRONOLOGIE EXACTE DU VIRAGE.
CELA SE TRADUIT AU SEIN DES MODELES NUMERIQUES PAR UNE FORTE
DISPERSION.
LA PREVISION ACTUELLE FAVORISE TOUTEFOIS L'OPTION D'UN VIRAGE ASSEZ
LARGE CONJUGUE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT ASSEZ RAPIDE AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 48H. CETTE PREVISION SEMBLE GRADUELLEMENT FAIRE L'OBJET
D'UN CONSENSUS PLUS IMPORTANT.

LE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE EST ACTUELLEMENT PRESENT. IL
DEVRAIT FAVORISER UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, CE
QUI CONFIRME LA PHASE DE DECLIN OBSERVEE ACTUELLEMENT, MALGRE LE
MAINTIEN D'UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE. PAR LA SUITE, L'ENVIRONNEMENT VA DEVENIR ASSEZ
DEFAVORABLE: UNE FORTE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE SECTEUR OUEST
CONJUGUE A UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PRES DU
CENTRE DANS LES DEMI-CERCLES NORD ET OUEST. LE SCENARIO LE PLUS
PROBABLE TABLE POUR UN SYSTEME QUI SE STABILISE AU STADE DE FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS ACTUELLEMENT DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

2021-02-09 13:14


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 091257
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/10/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 84.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/10 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

24H: 2021/02/10 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 305 SW: 285 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

36H: 2021/02/11 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2021/02/11 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75

60H: 2021/02/12 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 75

72H: 2021/02/12 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/13 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 175 SW: 220 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 65

120H: 2021/02/14 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 195 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 35

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5 CI=6.0


OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE OF FARAJI IS TOTALLY COVERED BY THE
ALTITUDE CLOUDS, DUE TO THE MID-SHEAR AS SUGGESTED BY THE CIMMS
ANALYSIS. CONVECTION IS ALWAYS STRONG WITH COLD TOPS WICH ARE
DISORGANIZE AROUND THE SUPPOSED LLCC. IN LACK OF RECENT ASCAT AND
MICROWAVE DATA, THE LOCATION OF THE LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS TRICKY.
THE LAST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. THUS, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 100 KT.

FARAJI IS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH THE WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING FLOW GOES DOWN TO A LOWER LEVEL AND FARAJI
IS TAKEN OVER BY THE WESTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE LOCATED FURTHER EAST
WHICH TENDS TO STRENGTHEN, WHICH FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY, TENDS TO SLOW
DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF FARAJI. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, FARAJI
TRACKS, UNDER THE CONTROL OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. DUE
THE CLOSE LINK BETWEEN THE RATE OF THE WEAKENING AND THE TRAJECTORY,
THE PREDICTION IS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN, ON THE EXACT CHRONOLOGY OF
THE TURN. THIS RESULTS IN A STRONG DISPERSION WITHIN THE NUMERICAL
MODELS.
HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVOURS THE OPTION OF A FAIRLY WIDE
TURN COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THIS FORECAST SEEMS TO BE GRADUALLY GATHERING MORE CONSENSUS.

MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY PRESENT. IT SHOULD FAVOR AN
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERE, WHICH CONFIRMS THE
DECLINE PHASE CURRENTLY OBSERVED, DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG
OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THEREAFTER, THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME RATHER UNCONDUCIVE: A STRONG UPPER CONSTRAINT
IN THE WESTERN SECTOR COMBINED WITH AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE
MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE NEAR THE CENTER ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT FARAJI WILL
STABILIZE AT THE RANK OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR THE INHABITED
LANDS AT THE MOMENT.=

>

2021-02-09 12:20


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 091218
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 09/02/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 84.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/10 AT 00 UTC:
14.9 S / 85.4 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/10 AT 12 UTC:
15.4 S / 86.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-09 08:15


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 14.2S 82.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 82.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.3S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 14.6S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.2S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.6S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.5S 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.1S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.4S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 82.8E.
08FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
727 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DENSE, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH WELL-DEFINED
20 NM DIAMETER EYE AND CHARACTERISTICS OF AN ANNULAR TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION OF A 081529Z
ASCAT-A IMAGE WITH A COMPACT, SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 140 KTS IS SET WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KTS, PGTW/FMEE), AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T7.2 (146 KTS), AND 081257Z
SAR DATA REVEALING 135-141KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ALL
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON MEASUREMENTS FROM THE RECENT
ASCAT AND SAR DATA. TC FARAJI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH
THROUGH A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF LOW (5-10
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) OFFSET BY LIMITED EASTWARD OUTFLOW. DIFFERING
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, TC 19S SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFIED OVER
THE PAST TWELVE HOURS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER,
AFTER SYNOPTIC TIME, THE EYE BEGAN TO BECOME SLIGHTLY DEFORMED,
INDICATING A POTENTIAL DECLINE WITHIN THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT TC 19S WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FIRST
24 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM TURNS
SOUTHEASTWARD. AT THIS TIME, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED
TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE
AND DRIVE TC 19S SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 48, SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
96, AND THEN WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AFTER
TAU 36, INCREASING VWS AND POSSIBLE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL RESULT
IN STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST TO 45 KTS
BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 36 WITH A SPREAD OF 60 NM. AFTERWARDS, UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST PLACES ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED TRACK AS MODEL SPREAD INCREASES. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED JUST TO THE
RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE TRACK BIAS INDUCED
BY THE NAVGEM OUTLIER IN THE LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-09 06:25


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090622
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/10/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 09/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.0 S / 83.5 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 930 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 280 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 80 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/02/2021 18 UTC: 14.5 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

24H: 10/02/2021 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

36H: 10/02/2021 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SO: 240 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 11/02/2021 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 75

60H: 11/02/2021 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 65

72H: 12/02/2021 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/02/2021 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 195 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 75

120H: 14/02/2021 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 140 SO: 175 NO: 95

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=6.0+ CI=6.5

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OIEL DE FARAJI A
CONTINUE DE PRESENTER DES FLUCTUATIONS, AVEC UN OEIL QUI S'EST UN PEU
ALLONGE ET UNE CONVECTION UN PEU AFFAIBLIE DANS LE SECTEUR SUD. CES
FLUCTUATIONS SONT CERTAINEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT
QUI EST DE PLUS EN PLUS PRESENT DANS LE SECTEUR SUD. POUR LE MOMENT,
IL N'APPARAIT PAS DE SIGNE DE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL,
L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT ETANT PREDOMINANT. SUIVANT CES REMARQUES,
L'ANALYSE DVORAK EST UN PEU A LA BAISSE PERMETTANT UNE ESTIMATION DE
VENT DE L'ORDRE DE 110KT. FARAJI EST DONC UN CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PHILOSOPHIE GENERALE DE LA PREVISION:
FARAJI SE DEPLACE VERS L'EST, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
EQUATORIALE. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME
ET LE FLUX DIRECTEUR REDESCEND A UN NIVEAU INFERIEUR, PRESENTANT
AINSI MERCREDI UN RALENTISSEMENT (VOIRE UNE PHASE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE)
ET UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT ETRE
INFLUENCE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSES COUCHES AU SUD, ET
DONC PRENDRE UNE DIRECTION GENERALE VERS L'OUEST. AU VU DU LIEN
ETROIT ENTRE LA VITESSE DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LA TRAJECTOIRE, LA
PREVISION EST PARTICULIEREMENT INCERTAINE, SUR LA CHRONOLOGIE EXACTE
DU VIRAGE. CELA SE TRADUIT AU SEIN DES MODELES NUMERIQUES PAR UNE
FORTE DISPERSION. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE FAVORISE TOUTEFOIS L'OPTION
D'UN RECOURBEMENT ASSEZ NORD ALLANT AVEC UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT ASSEZ
RAPIDE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48H. CELLE-CI SEMBLE GRADUELLEMENT
FAIRE L'OBJET D'UN CONSENSUS PLUS IMPORTANT. LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE
DE TRAJECTOIRE CONTINUE D'ETRE DECALEE VERS LE NORD PAR RAPPORT AU
RESEAU PRECEDENT A PARTIR DE LA SECONDE PARTIE DE SEMAINE.

LE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE COMMENCE A SE METTRE DOUCEMENT
EN PLACE SELON LES ANALYSES DU CIMMS. IL DEVRAIT FAVORISER
AUJOURD'HUI UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE VERS 400
HPA, CE QUI DEVRAIT AMORCER UNE PHASE DE DECLIN, MALGRE LE MAINTIEN
D'UN FORT POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE ET D'UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. PAR
LA SUITE, L'ENVIRONNEMENT VA DEVENIR ASSEZ MIXTE: UN FORT
CISAILLEMENT ATTENDU MAIS PLUS AU SUD DU SYSTEME ET DE L'AIR SEC DE
MOYENNE TROPO QUI VA RESTER PRESENT PRES DU CENTRE DANS LES
DEMI-CERCLE OUEST ET NORD. LE SCENARIO LE PLUS PROBABLE TABLE POUR UN
SYSTEME QUI SE STABILISE AU STADE MINIMALE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MAIS
LA DEGENERATION EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE EST UNE ALTERNATIVE TOUT A
FAIT POSSIBLE.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS POUR LE MOMENT DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR
LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

2021-02-09 06:25


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090622
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/10/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 83.5 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 930 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/09 18 UTC: 14.5 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

24H: 2021/02/10 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/10 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2021/02/11 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 75

60H: 2021/02/11 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2021/02/12 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/13 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 75

120H: 2021/02/14 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 140 SW: 175 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0+ CI=7.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE FARAJI EYE CONFIGURATION HAS CONTINUED TO
FLUCTUATE, WITH ONE EYE SLIGHTLY ELONGATED AND SLIGHTLY WEAKENED
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. THESE FLUCTUATIONS ARE CERTAINLY
RELATED TO THE WIND SHEAR WHICH IS MORE AND MORE PRESENT IN THE
SOUTHERN SECTOR. FOR THE MOMENT, THERE IS NO SIGN OF AN EYE WALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE, THE EFFECT OF SHEAR BEING PREDOMINANT. ACCORDING
TO THESE REMARKS, THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS A LITTLE BIT LOWER ALLOWING
A WIND ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 110KT. FARAJI IS THEREFORE AN INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GENERAL PHILOSOPHY OF FORECAST:
FARAJI IS MOVING EASTWARD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. BY MID-WEEK, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE DIRECTIONAL
FLOW DROPS TO A LOWER LEVEL, THUS PRESENTING A SLOWDOWN (OR EVEN A
QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE) AND A TURN TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, AND THUS TAKE A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION. IN
VIEW OF THE CLOSE LINK BETWEEN THE SPEED OF THE WEAKENING AND THE
TRACK, THE FORECAST IS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN, ON THE EXACT
CHRONOLOGY OF THE TURN. THIS RESULTS IN A STRONG DISPERSION WITHIN
THE NUMERICAL MODELS. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVOURS THE
OPTION OF A FAIRLY NORTHERLY CURVE WITH A FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SEEMS TO BE GRADUALLY BECOMING THE SUBJECT OF
GREATER CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
SHIFTED NORTHWARD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM THE SECOND
PART OF THE WEEK.

THE SHEAR OF THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SET UP ACCORDING
TO THE CIMMS ANALYSIS. IT SHOULD FAVOUR TODAY AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR
IN AVERAGE TROPOSPHERE AROUND 400 HPA, WHICH SHOULD START A PHASE OF
DECLINE, DESPITE THE MAINTENANCE OF A STRONG ENERGY POTENTIAL AND A
DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE. THEREAFTER, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME QUITE
MIXED: A STRONG SHEAR EXPECTED BUT FURTHER SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND
DRY AIR OF MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE WHICH WILL REMAIN PRESENT NEAR THE
CENTER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE MOST PROBABLE
SCENARIO IS FOR A SYSTEM THAT STABILIZES AT THE MINIMUM TROPICAL
STORM STAGE BUT THE DEGENERATION INTO A RESIDUAL DEPRESSION IS A
POSSIBLE ALTERNATIVE.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR THE INHABITED
LANDS AT THE MOMENT.=

>

2021-02-09 06:05


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 090604
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 09/02/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI) 930 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 83.5 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/09 AT 18 UTC:
14.5 S / 84.9 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/10 AT 06 UTC:
14.9 S / 85.4 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-09 01:08


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090037
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/10/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 09/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.1 S / 83.1 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-NORD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/7.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 925 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 125 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 280 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 80 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/02/2021 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 84.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SO: 250 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 10/02/2021 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 315 SO: 250 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 10/02/2021 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55

48H: 11/02/2021 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 85.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75

60H: 11/02/2021 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 85.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 85

72H: 12/02/2021 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 95 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/02/2021 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 55

120H: 14/02/2021 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SO: 185 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 35

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=6.0+ CI=7.0

PEU APRES 18Z, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL EN IMAGERIE IR DE FARAJI A
COMMENCER A MONTRER DES SIGNES DE FAIBLESSE AVEC DES FLUCTUATIONS
IMPORTANTES DE LA DEFINITION DE L'OEIL QUI EST AUSSI DEVENU MOINS
CHAUD. LES MICRO-ONDES DE FIN DE SECONDE PARTIE DE NUIT MONTRENT QUE
MALGRE CELA LE COEUR DU SYSTEME RESTE TRES BIEN ORGANISE ET COMPACT
(CONTRACTION ENCORE OBSERVEE DU RAYON DE VENT MAX). AUCUN SIGNE DE
DEMARRAGE D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL N'EST POUR
L'INSTANT IDENTIFIE. L'INTENSITE FINALE EST LAISSEE A 125 KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PHILOSOPHIE GENERALE DE LA PREVISION:
FARAJI SE DEPLACE VERS L'EST, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
EQUATORIALE. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME
ET LE FLUX DIRECTEUR REDESCEND A UN NIVEAU INFERIEUR. LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT ETRE INFLUENCE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
BASSES COUCHES AU SUD, ET DONC PRENDRE UNE DIRECTION GENERALE VERS
L'OUEST, APRES UNE PHASE PROBABLE DE DEPLACEMENT TRES LENT VOIRE
QUASI-STATIONNAIRE EN SECONDE PARTIE DE SEMAINE. AU VU DU LIEN ETROIT
ENTRE LA VITESSE DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LA TRAJECTOIRE, LA PREVISION
EST PARTICULIEREMENT INCERTAINE. CELA SE TRADUIT AU SEIN DES MODELES
NUMERIQUES PAR UNE FORTE DISPERSION. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE FAVORISE
TOUTEFOIS L'OPTION D'UN RECOURBEMENT ASSEZ NORD ALLANT AVEC UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT ASSEZ RAPIDE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48H. CELLE-CI
SEMBLE GRADUELLEMENT FAIRE L'OBJET D'UN CONSENSUS PLUS IMPORTANT. LA
PREVISION OFFICIELLE DE TRAJECTOIRE CONTINUE D'ETRE DECALEE VERS LE
NORD PAR RAPPORT AU RESEAU PRECEDENT A PARTIR DE LA SECONDE PARTIE DE
SEMAINE.

LE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE COMMENCE A SE METTRE DOUCEMENT
EN PLACE SELON LES ANALYSES DU CIMMS. IL DEVRAIT FAVORISER
AUJOURD'HUI UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE VERS 400
HPA, CE QUI DEVRAIT AMORCER UNE PHASE DE DECLIN, MALGRA LE MAINTIEN
D'UN FORT POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE ET D'UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. PAR
LA SUITE, L'ENVIRONNEMENT VA DEVENIR ASSEZ MIXTE: PAS DE FORT
CISAILLEMENT ATTENDU MAIS DE L'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPO VA RESTER
PRESENT PRES DU CENTRE DANS LES DEMI-CERCLE OUEST ET NORD. LE
SCENARIO LE PLUS PROBABLE TABLE POUR UN SYSTEME QUI SE STABILISE AU
STADE MINIMALE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MAIS LA DEGENERATION EN
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE EST UNE ALTERNATIVE TOUT A FAIT POSSIBLE.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

>

2021-02-09 01:08


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090037
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/10/20202021
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 83.1 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/7.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 925 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 125 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/09 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 84.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/02/10 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 315 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/10 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55

48H: 2021/02/11 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 85.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75

60H: 2021/02/11 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 85.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 85

72H: 2021/02/12 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/13 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 55

120H: 2021/02/14 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 35

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0+ CI=7.0

SHORTLY AFTER 18Z, FARAJI'S IR-IMAGERY EYE CONFIGURATION BEGAN TO
SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS WITH SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE
DEFINITION OF THE EYE WHICH ALSO BECAME LESS WARM. THE MICROWAVES AT
THE END OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOW THAT DESPITE THIS THE
CORE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS VERY WELL ORGANIZED AND COMPACT
(CONTRACTION STILL OBSERVED IN THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS). NO SIGN
OF ONSET OF A EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS IDENTIFIED FOR THE MOMENT.
THE FINAL INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 125 KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GENERAL FORECAST REASONING:
FARAJI IS TRACKING EASTWARD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. BY MID-WEEK, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE STEERING
FLOW GOES DOWN TO A LOWER LEVEL. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY BE
INFLUENCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, AND THUS
TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION, AFTER A PROBABLE PHASE OF VERY
SLOW OR EVEN QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.
DUE TO THE CLOSE LINK BETWEEN THE WEAKENING PACE AND THE TRACK, THE
FORECAST IS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN. THIS RESULTS IN A STRONG
DISPERSION WITHIN THE NUMERICAL MODELS. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT
FORECAST FAVOURS THE OPTION OF A FAIRLY NORTHERLY CURVATURE WITH A
FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SEEMS TO BE
GRADUALLY BECOMING THE SUBJECT OF GREATER CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THE SECOND PART
OF THE WEEK, COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE SHEAR OF THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE IS STARTING TO SLOWLY SET UP
ACCORDING TO THE CIMMS ANALYSIS. IT SHOULD NOW FAVOR AN INTRUSION OF
DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE AROUND 400 HPA, WHICH SHOULD START
A WEAKENING TREND, DESPITE THE MAINTENANCE OF A STRONG ENERGY
POTENTIAL AND GOOD UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE. THEREAFTER, THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME QUITE MIXED: NO STRONG SHEAR IS EXPECTED BUT
DRY AIR OF MID TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN PRESENT NEAR THE CENTER IN THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR A
SYSTEM THAT STABILIZES AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM BUT DEGENERATION
INTO A REMNANT LOW IS A VERY POSSIBLE ALTERNATIVE.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED LANDS.=

>

2021-02-09 00:25


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 090023
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/02/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 09/02/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI) 925 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 83.1 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/125 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/09 AT 12 UTC:
14.3 S / 84.5 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/10 AT 00 UTC:
14.8 S / 85.4 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-08 21:00


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 14.2S 82.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 82.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.3S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 14.6S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.2S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.6S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.5S 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.1S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.4S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 82.8E.
08FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
727 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DENSE, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH WELL-DEFINED
20 NM DIAMETER EYE AND CHARACTERISTICS OF AN ANNULAR TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION OF A 081529Z
ASCAT-A IMAGE WITH A COMPACT, SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 140 KTS IS SET WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KTS, PGTW/FMEE), AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T7.2 (146 KTS), AND 081257Z
SAR DATA REVEALING 135-141KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ALL
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON MEASUREMENTS FROM THE RECENT
ASCAT AND SAR DATA. TC FARAJI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH
THROUGH A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF LOW (5-10
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) OFFSET BY LIMITED EASTWARD OUTFLOW. DIFFERING
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, TC 19S SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFIED OVER
THE PAST TWELVE HOURS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER,
AFTER SYNOPTIC TIME, THE EYE BEGAN TO BECOME SLIGHTLY DEFORMED,
INDICATING A POTENTIAL DECLINE WITHIN THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT TC 19S WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FIRST
24 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM TURNS
SOUTHEASTWARD. AT THIS TIME, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED
TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE
AND DRIVE TC 19S SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 48, SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
96, AND THEN WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AFTER
TAU 36, INCREASING VWS AND POSSIBLE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL RESULT
IN STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST TO 45 KTS
BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 36 WITH A SPREAD OF 60 NM. AFTERWARDS, UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST PLACES ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED TRACK AS MODEL SPREAD INCREASES. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED JUST TO THE
RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE TRACK BIAS INDUCED
BY THE NAVGEM OUTLIER IN THE LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-08 19:06


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 081845
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/10/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.2 S / 82.5 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 7.0/7.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 927 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 125 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 280 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 80 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/02/2021 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 09/02/2021 18 UTC: 14.7 S / 85.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 260 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 10/02/2021 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

48H: 10/02/2021 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SO: 240 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 11/02/2021 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 295 SO: 215 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 65

72H: 11/02/2021 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 85.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 230 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/02/2021 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 215 SO: 270 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 55

120H: 13/02/2021 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 130

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=7.0

LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL EN IMAGERIE IR DE FARAJI A CONTINUE DE
S'AMELIORER CE SOIR AVEC UN ANNEAU DE SOMMETS NUAGEUX FROIDS DE PLUS
EN PLUS EPAIS ASSOCIE A UN OEIL BIEN CHAUD, QUOIQUE UN PEU DEFORME
PAR MOMENT. LES MICRO-ONDES DE FIN DE JOURNEE ONT MONTRE UNE
STRUCTURE CENTRALE IMPRESSIONNANTE. LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES ET
SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES SONT A 125-130 KT EN VENTS 10-MIN ET
L'INTENSITE FINALE EST ESTIMEE A 125 KT. A NOTER QU'UNE PASS
RADARSAT2 VERS 13Z A REPORTE DES VENTS DE 135 KT (EQUIVALENT VENTS 1
MIN, SOIT PRES DE 120 KT EN VENTS 10-MIN) DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION:
FARAJI SE DEPLACE VERS L'EST, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
EQUATORIALE. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME
ET LE FLUX DIRECTEUR REDESCEND A UN NIVEAU INFERIEUR. LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT ETRE INFLUENCE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
BASSES COUCHES AU SUD, ET DONC PRENDRE UNE DIRECTION GENERALE VERS
L'OUEST.
AU VU DU LIEN ETROIT ENTRE LA VITESSE DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LA
TRAJECTOIRE, LA PREVISION EST PARTICULIEREMENT INCERTAINE. CELA SE
TRADUIT AU SEIN DES MODELES NUMERIQUES PAR UNE FORTE DISPERSION. LA
PREVISION ACTUELLE EST UNE MOYENNE DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES NUMERIQUES
DETERMINISTES ET DES MOYENNES D'ENSEMBLE. ELLE EST DECALEE VERS LE
NORD A PARTIR DU 11 PAR RAPPORT A LA DERNIERE PREVISION EN ACCORD
AVEC LES DERNIRES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES.

FARAJI RESTE SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE. LE CISAILLEMENT DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE COMMENCE A SE METTRE DOUCEMENT EN PLACE SELON LES
ANALYSES DU CIMMS. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, SE RAJOUTE UNE INTRUSION D'AIR
SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, CE QUI DEVRAIT STOPPER L'INTENSIFICATION
ET AMORCER UNE PHASE DE DECLIN, MALGRA LE MAINTIEN D'UN FORT
POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE ET D'UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. LES DERNIERS
MODELES DISPONIBLES DIVERGENT SUR CETTE CHRONOLOGIE; CERTAINS MODA
LES AFFAIBLISSENT PLUS RAPIDEMENT LE METEORE QUE D'AUTRES (NOTAMMENT
GFS PAR RAPPORT A IFS).

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES5=

>

2021-02-08 19:06


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 081845
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/10/20202021
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 82.5 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0/7.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 927 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 125 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/09 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/02/09 18 UTC: 14.7 S / 85.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/10 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

48H: 2021/02/10 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/02/11 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 295 SW: 215 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65

72H: 2021/02/11 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 85.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 230 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/12 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 215 SW: 270 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 55

120H: 2021/02/13 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 130

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=7.0

FARAJI'S EYE CONFIGURATION IN IR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT
WITH A RING OF THICKER AND THICKER COLD CLOUD TOPS COMBINED WITH A
WARM EYE, THOUGH A BIT RAGGED AT TIMES. THE END-OF-DAY MICROWAVES
SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE CENTRAL STRUCTURE. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES AVAILABLE ARE 125-130 KT IN 10-MINUTE WINDS AND THE FINAL
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 125 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A RADARSAT2
PASS AROUND 13Z REPORTED WINDS OF 135 KT (EQUIVALENT TO 1 MIN WINDS,
OR NEARLY 120 KT IN 10 MIN WINDS) IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST REASONING:
FARAJI IS TRACKING EASTWARD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. BY MID-WEEK, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE STEERING
FLOW GOES DOWN TO A LOWER LEVEL. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY BE
INFLUENCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, AND THUS
TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION.
DUE TO THE CLOSE LINK BETWEEN THE WEAKENING PACE AND THE TRACK, THE
FORECAST IS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN. THIS RESULTS IN A STRONG
DISPERSION WITHIN THE NUMERICAL MODELS. CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE NUMERICAL
MODELS. IT IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH FROM THE 11TH COMPARED TO THE LAST
FORECAST IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE.

FARAJI REMAINS UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE MID-LAYER SHEAR
IS SLOWLY STARTING TO SET UP ACCORDING TO THE CIMMS ANALYSIS. FROM
TOMORROW, AN INTRUSION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS ADDED, WHICH SHOULD
STOP THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS AND LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND,
DESPITE THE PERSISTENCE OF A STRONG ENERGY POTENTIAL AND AN UPPER
DIVERGENCE. THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODELS DIVERGE ON THIS CHRONOLOGY;
SOME MODELS WEAKEN THE METEOR MORE RAPIDLY THAN OTHERS (NOTABLY GFS
COMPARED TO IFS).

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED LANDS.=

>

2021-02-08 18:31


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 081829
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/02/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI) 927 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 82.5 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/125 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/09 AT 06 UTC:
14.3 S / 83.9 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/09 AT 18 UTC:
14.7 S / 85.2 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-08 12:44


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 081228
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/10/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 08/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.2 S / 81.8 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.5/6.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 932 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 110 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/02/2021 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SO: 270 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55

24H: 09/02/2021 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SO: 295 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 10/02/2021 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SO: 285 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 10/02/2021 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 11/02/2021 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SO: 280 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 11/02/2021 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/02/2021 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SO: 270 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 85

120H: 13/02/2021 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SO: 230 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 95 NO: 75

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, FARAJI CONTINUE SON INTENSIFICATION,
AVEC UN REFROIDISSEMENT DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX. LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES
ET SUBJECTIVES D'INTENSITE CONFIRMENT CETTE INTENSIFICATION. AU VU DE
CES ELEMENTS, L'INTENSITA DU SYSTEME A ETE RELEVEE A 110 KT. LES
PASSES AMSR2 DE 0805Z ET SSMIS DE 1123Z MONTRENT UNE STRUCTURE
INTERNE SOLIDE, UN ANNEAU DE CONVECTION BIEN DESSINE ET SURTOUT UN
OEIL QUI S'EST CONTRACTA .

FARAJI SE DEPLACE VERS L'EST, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
EQUATORIALE. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME
ET LE FLUX DIRECTEUR REDESCEND A UN NIVEAU INFERIEUR. LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT ETRE INFLUENCE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
BASSES COUCHES AU SUD, ET DONC PRENDRE UNE DIRECTION GENERALE VERS
L'OUEST.
AU VU DU LIEN ETROIT ENTRE LA VITESSE DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LA
TRAJECTOIRE, LA PREVISION EST PARTICULIEREMENT INCERTAINE. CELA SE
TRADUIT AU SEIN DES MODELES NUMERIQUES PAR UNE FORTE DISPERSION. LA
PREVISION ACTUELLE EST UNE MOYENNE DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES NUMERIQUES
DETERMINISTES ET DES MOYENNES D'ENSEMBLE.

FARADJI RESTE SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE. LE CISAILLEMENT DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE COMMENCE A SE METTRE DOUCEMENT EN PLACE SELON LES
ANALYSES DU CIMMS ET DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER A PARTIR DE CE SOIR,
AFFAIBLISSANT PROGRESSIVEMENT L'INTENSITE DU METEORE. A PARTIR DE
DEMAIN, SE RAJOUTE UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, CE
QUI DEVRAIT STOPPER L'INTENSIFICATION, MALGRA LE MAINTIEN D'UN FORT
POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE ET D'UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. LES DERNIERS
MODELES DISPONIBLES DIVERGENT SUR CETTE CHRONOLOGIE; CERTAINS MODA
LES AFFAIBLISSENT PLUS RAPIDEMENT LE METEORE QUE D'AUTRES (NOTAMMENT
GFS PAR RAPPORT A IFS).

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES5=

>

2021-02-08 12:44


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 081228
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/10/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 81.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 932 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/09 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2021/02/09 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 295 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/10 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2021/02/10 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/02/11 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/02/11 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/12 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 270 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 85

120H: 2021/02/13 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SW: 230 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, FARAJI HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING AGAIN, WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COOLING OF THE CONVECTIVE RING. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ANALYSES ALSO SHOW THIS INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN THESE
ELEMENTS, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN HELD UP TO 110KT. THE
GPM SWATH OF 0229Z AND THE 1123Z SSMIS SHOW A WELL DEFINED INNER
STRUCTURE, WITH A SHRINKING EYE.

FARAJI IS TRACKING EASTWARD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. BY MID-WEEK, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE STEERING
FLOW GOES DOWN TO A LOWER LEVEL. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY BE
INFLUENCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, AND THUS
TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION.
DUE TO THE CLOSE LINK BETWEEN THE WEAKENING PACE AND THE TRACK, THE
FORECAST IS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN. THIS RESULTS IN A STRONG
DISPERSION WITHIN THE NUMERICAL MODELS. CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE NUMERICAL
MODELS.

FARADJI REMAINS UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE MID-LAYER
SHEAR IS SLOWLY STARTING TO SET UP ACCORDING TO THE CIMMS ANALYSIS
AND SHOULD STRENGTHEN FROM THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY
WEAKEN THE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. FROM TOMORROW, AN INTRUSION OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS ADDED, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A STRONGER WEAKENING
OF THE INTENSIFICATION, DESPITE THE PERSISTENCE OF A STRONG ENERGY
POTENTIAL AND AN UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODELS
DIVERGE ON THIS CHRONOLOGY; SOME MODELS WEAKEN THE METEOR MORE
RAPIDLY THAN OTHERS (NOTABLY GFS COMPARED TO IFS).

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED LANDS.=

>

2021-02-08 12:12


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 081210
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/02/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI) 932 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 81.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 170 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/09 AT 00 UTC:
14.3 S / 83.3 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/09 AT 12 UTC:
14.7 S / 84.6 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-08 08:27


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 14.2S 81.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 81.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.1S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.3S 83.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 14.6S 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.1S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 16.0S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.8S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.3S 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 81.8E.
08FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (TC) (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
680 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS DENSE, AXISYMMETRIC CONVECTION CHARACTERISTIC OF AN
ANNULAR TROPICAL CYCLONE ALONG WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING
A WELL DEFINED 20 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI
IMAGERY, COMBINED WITH SCATTERMETRY DATA FROM A 080412Z ASCAT-B
PASS, LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 120 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KTS,
PGTW) AND T6.0 (115 KTS, FMEE AND FIMP) AND IS HEDGED ABOVE A
080410Z CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 116 KTS.
TC FARAJI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND THROUGH A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST) THAT IS OFFSET BY REDUCED OUTFLOW ALOFT. THIS LOSS OF
PREVIOUSLY ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, COUPLED WITH
THE UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY QUASI-
STATIONARY (QS) TRACK MOTION, WILL PREVENT TC FARAJI FROM FURTHER
INTENSIFYING, HOWEVER THE ANNULAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WILL ALLOW
FOR ONLY MODERATE WEAKENING IN THE NEAR TERM TO 100 KTS BY TAU 48.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE NER UNTIL TAU 48 AT WHICH POINT A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. AS THIS RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IT WILL BEGIN TO DRIVE TC FARAJI INITIALLY
SOUTHWARD FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 72, SOUTHWESTWARD FROM TAU 72 TO TAU
96 AND THEN WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD AS A RESULT OF
CONTINUAL MODERATE VWS AFTER TAU 48, COUPLED WITH CONVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT AND POSSIBLY ENTRAINMENT OF COOL DRY AIR FROM THE EAST. BY
TAU 120, THESE CONDITIONS WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 45 KTS.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREAD
IN ACROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS, HOWEVER THERE IS A FAIR DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE IN TRACK DIRECTION FROM
EASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD. OVERALL, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED JUST TO
THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET A SLIGHT RIGHT OF
TRACK BIAS FROM NAVGEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z
IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-02-08 06:50


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080641
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/10/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 08/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.3 S / 81.3 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-NORD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 110 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 90 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/02/2021 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 260 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55

24H: 09/02/2021 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55

36H: 09/02/2021 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 285 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 10/02/2021 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SO: 260 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 10/02/2021 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 86.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 11/02/2021 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 285 SO: 260 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/02/2021 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

120H: 13/02/2021 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 85

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, FARAJI CONNAIT UN REGAIN D'INTENSITA
, AVEC UN REFROIDISSEMENT NET DE L'ANNEAU CONVECTIF. LES ANALYSES
OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES D'INTENSITE MONTRENT EGALEMENT CETTE
INTENSIFICATION. AU VU DE CES ELEMENTS, L'INTENSITA DU SYSTEME A ETE
RELEVEE A 105 KT. LA PASSE GPM DE 0229Z MONTRE UNE STRUCTURE INTERNE
SOLIDE, AVEC UN ANNEAU DE CONVECTION BIEN DESSINE.

FARAJI SE DEPLACE VERS L'EST, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
EQUATORIALE. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME
ET LE FLUX DIRECTEUR REDESCEND A UN NIVEAU INFERIEUR. LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT ETRE INFLUENCE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
BASSES COUCHES AU SUD, ET DONC PRENDRE UNE DIRECTION GENERALE VERS
L'OUEST.
AU VU DU LIEN ETROIT ENTRE LA VITESSE DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LA
TRAJECTOIRE, LA PREVISION EST PARTICULIEREMENT INCERTAINE. CELA SE
TRADUIT AU SEIN DES MODELES NUMERIQUES PAR UNE FORTE DISPERSION. LA
PREVISION ACTUELLE EST UNE MOYENNE DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES NUMERIQUES
DETERMINISTES ET DES MOYENNES D'ENSEMBLE.

FARADJI RESTE SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE. MALGRE TOUT, LE
CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER A PARTIR DE
CE SOIR ET COMMENCER A AFFAIBLIR L'INTENSITE DU METEORE. EN MILIEU DE
SEMAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT SERA ACCOMPAGNA D'AIR SEC, CE QUI DEVRAIT
STOPPER L'INTENSIFICATION, MALGRA LE MAINTIEN D'UN FORT POTENTIEL
ENERGETIQUE ET D'UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. LES MODELES DISPONIBLES
SONT PLUTOT EN BON ACCORD SUR CETTE CHRONOLOGIE.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

>

2021-02-08 06:50


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080641
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/10/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 81.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 90 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/08 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2021/02/09 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/09 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2021/02/10 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2021/02/10 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 86.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/02/11 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/12 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

120H: 2021/02/13 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 85

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, FARAJI HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING AGAIN, WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COOLING OF THE CONVECTIVE RING. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ANALYSES ALSO SHOW THIS INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN THESE
ELEMENTS, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RAISED TO 105KT. THE
GPM SWATH OF 0229Z SHOW A WELL DEFINED INNER STRUCTURE, WITH A STRONG
INNER CONVECTIVE RING.

FARAJI IS TRACKING EASTWARD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. BY MID-WEEK, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE STEERING
FLOW GOES DOWN TO A LOWER LEVEL. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY BE
INFLUENCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, AND THUS
TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION.
DUE TO THE CLOSE LINK BETWEEN THE WEAKENING PACE AND THE TRACK, THE
FORECAST IS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN. THIS RESULTS IN A STRONG
DISPERSION WITHIN THE NUMERICAL MODELS. CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE NUMERICAL
MODELS.

FARADJI REMAINS UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE MID-LEVEL
SHEAR, SHOULD STRENGTHEN FROM TONIGHT AND START TO WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE. BY MID-WEEK, THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INJECT DRY AIR, WHICH
SHOULD STOP THE INTENSIFICATION, DESPITE THE PERSISTENCE OF A STRONG
ENERGY POTENTIAL AND AN UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS CHRONOLOGY.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED LANDS.=

>

2021-02-08 06:19


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 080616
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/02/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 81.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/08 AT 18 UTC:
14.4 S / 82.4 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/09 AT 06 UTC:
14.5 S / 83.8 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-08 00:30


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080018
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/10/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 08/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.3 S / 80.8 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-NORD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 946 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/02/2021 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 09/02/2021 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 250 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 09/02/2021 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 10/02/2021 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 10/02/2021 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 86.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SO: 280 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 75

72H: 11/02/2021 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/02/2021 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SO: 220 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 65

120H: 13/02/2021 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0-.

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ANNEAU CONVECTIF AUTOUR DE L'OEIL
DE FARAJI S'EST A NOUVEAU REFROIDI, MAIS DANS LE MEME TEMPS L'OEIL
S'EST ELARGI. L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME A DONC ETE MAINTENU. LE SYSTEME
A COMMENCE A ACCELERER EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'EST.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, FARAJI SE DEPLACE VERS L'EST, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE LOCALISEE AU NORD DU SYSTEME.
EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME ET LA BAISSE
DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT ETRE
INFLUENCE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSES COUCHES AU SUD. AU VU
DU LIEN ETROIT ENTRE LA VITESSE DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LA
TRAJECTOIRE, LA PREVISION EST PARTICULIEREMENT INCERTAINE. CELA SE
TRADUIT AU SEIN DES MODELES NUMERIQUES PAR UNE FORTE DISPERSION. LA
PREVISION ACTUELLE EST UNE MOYENNE DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES NUMERIQUES
DETERMINISTES ET DES MOYENNES D'ENSEMBLE.

FARAJI RESTE SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE CE QUI LUI PERMET DE
BENEFICIER D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE TOUT EN ECHAPPANT AU
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT. MALGRE SA PRESENCE SUR DES EAUX AU FORT
POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE, LE LENT DEPLACEMENT DE FARAJI, CES DERNIERES
HEURES INDUIT UN RISQUE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PAR REFROIDISSEMENT DES
EAUX SOUS JACENTES. S'IL CONTINUE SON ACCELERATION VERS L'EST CE
RISQUE DEVRAIT RESTER LIMITE. UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL EST EGALEMENT POSSIBLE. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, UN TALWEG SE
RAPPROCHE DU SYSTEME PAR LE SUD-OUEST EN FAISANT APPARAITRE UN
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. ASSOCIEE A
DE L'AIR SEC, CETTE CONTRAINTE DEVRAIT STOPPER L'INTENSIFICATION PUIS
AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME PLUS FRANCHEMENT A PARTIR DE MARDI. LES MODELES
DISPONIBLES SONT PLUTOT EN BON ACCORD SUR CETTE CHRONOLOGIE.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

>

2021-02-08 00:30


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080018
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/10/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 80.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 946 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/08 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2021/02/09 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/09 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/02/10 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/02/10 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 86.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 75

72H: 2021/02/11 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/12 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65

120H: 2021/02/13 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0-.

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE RING AROUND FARAJI'S EYE HAS
COOLED DOWN AGAIN, BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE EYE HAS ENLARGED. THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WAS THUS MAINTAINED. THE SYSTEM BEGAN TO
ACCELERATE IN A GENERAL EASTERLY DIRECTION.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, FARAJI IS MOVING EASTWARD, UNER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW
GOING DOWN, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT SOUTH. GIVEN THE
TIGHT LINK BETWEEN THE RATE OF DECAY AND THE TRACK, THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT IS SHOWN BY STRONG SPREAD AMONG THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE. CURRENT FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MEANS.

FARAJI REMAINS UNDER THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF ALTITUDE WHICH ALLOWS
HIM TO BENEFIT FROM A GOOD DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE WHILE ESCAPING THE
WIND SHEAR. DESPITE ITS PRESENCE OVER HIGH POTENTIAL WATERS, FARAJI
SLOW MOTION PUTS IT UNDER RISK OF COOLING THE WATERS BENEATH. IF
FARAJI CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY, IT SHOULD ESCAPE THIS WEAKENING.
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STARTING MONDAY, A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST, IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE A SOUTHWESTERN SHEAR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. ASSOCIATED WITH
DRY AIR, THIS STRESS SHOULD STOP THE INTENSIFICATION AND THEN WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM MORE STRONGLY ON TUESDAY. THE AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS CHRONOLOGY.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED LANDS.=

>

2021-02-08 00:12


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 080011
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/02/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI) 946 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 80.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 160 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/08 AT 12 UTC:
14.3 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/09 AT 00 UTC:
14.4 S / 83.3 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-07 20:18


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 14.6S 80.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 80.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 14.4S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.4S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.6S 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.1S 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.2S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 17.1S 85.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.7S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 80.4E.
07FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 639
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED 20-
NM EYE AND A COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, EVEN
AS CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO WARM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE, ADJUSTED FOR A SLIGHT
FORWARD TILT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T6.0/115KTS FROM PGTW AND FMEE. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SST, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW
ALOFT, AND LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 19S IS SLOWLY
COMING OUT OF A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) STATE AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH STEERS IT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. AROUND TAU 72, A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST WILL BUILD, ASSUME STEERING AND
GRADUALLY DRIVE THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD. AS TC 19S
PROGRESSES EASTWARD, THE REDUCED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT CAUSED BY
UPWELLING INDUCED BY ITS PROLONGED QS STATE, PLUS THE INFLUX OF COLD
DRY AIR, WILL OFFSET THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, RESULTING
IN A NET DECLINE IN INTENSITY, AND BY TAU 72, WILL BE DOWN TO 90KTS.
AFTERWARD, AS THE CYCLONE MAKES A WIDE U-TURN WESTWARD, INCREASING
VWS (20KT+), PLUS THE SUBSIDING IMPACT OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH, WILL RAPIDLY ERODE TC FARAJI DOWN TO 45KTS BY TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF
NAVGEM THAT IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. HOWEVER, THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM MOTIONS IN THE POST-QS PHASE AND DURING THE
STEERING TRANSITION AROUND TAU 72, LEND AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS
TO OFFSET NAVGEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 45
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-07 18:32


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071830
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/10/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 07/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.6 S / 80.3 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-NORD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/W 1.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/02/2021 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 250 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 08/02/2021 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 09/02/2021 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 09/02/2021 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 250 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 10/02/2021 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 85.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SO: 250 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 10/02/2021 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 270 SO: 260 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2021 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 85.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 195 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 45

120H: 12/02/2021 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 30 SO: 75 NO: 85

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5- CI=6.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ANNEAU CONVECTIF AUTOUR DE L'OEIL
DE FARAJI A MAJORITAIREMENT CONTINUE DE SE RECHAUFFER PROBABLEMENT
SOUS L'EFFET DU CYCLE DIURNE DE LA CONVECTION SUR MER MAIS PEUT ETRE
EGALEMENT A CAUSE DU REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS-JACENTES. DEPUIS
LES DERNIERES HEURES LA CONVECTION SEMBLE A NOUVEAU SE REFROIDIR. LE
DEPLACEMENT VERS L'EST SE CONFIRME EGALEMENT DEPUIS QUELQUES HEURES.
EN ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES,
L'INTENSITE A ETE BAISSEE A 100KT.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, FARAJI SE DEPLACE VERS L'EST, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE LOCALISEE AU NORD DU SYSTEME.
EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME ET LA BAISSE
DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT ETRE
INFLUENCE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSES COUCHES AU SUD. AU VU
DU LIEN ETROIT ENTRE LA VITESSE DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LA
TRAJECTOIRE, LA PREVISION EST PARTICULIEREMENT INCERTAINE. CELA SE
TRADUIT AU SEIN DES MODELES NUMERIQUES PAR UNE FORTE DISPERSION. LA
PREVISION ACTUELLE EST UNE MOYENNE DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES NUMERIQUES
DETERMINISTES ET DES MOYENNES D'ENSEMBLE.

FARAJI RESTE SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE CE QUI LUI PERMET DE
BENEFICIER D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE TOUT EN ECHAPPANT AU
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT. MALGRE SA PRESENCE SUR DES EAUX AU FORT
POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE, LE LENT DEPLACEMENT DE FARAJI, CES DERNIERES
HEURES INDUIT UN RISQUE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PAR REFROIDISSEMENT DES
EAUX SOUS JACENTES. S'IL CONTINUE SON ACCELERATION VERS L'EST CE
RISQUE DEVRAIT RESTER LIMITE. UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL EST EGALEMENT POSSIBLE. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, UN TALWEG SE
RAPPROCHE DU SYSTEME PAR LE SUD-OUEST EN FAISANT APPARAITRE UN
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. ASSOCIEE A
DE L'AIR SEC, CETTE CONTRAINTE DEVRAIT STOPPER L'INTENSIFICATION PUIS
AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME PLUS FRANCHEMENT A PARTIR DE MARDI. LES MODELES
DISPONIBLES SONT PLUTOT EN BON ACCORD SUR CETTE CHRONOLOGIE.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

>

2021-02-07 18:32


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071830
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/10/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 80.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/08 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2021/02/08 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/09 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/02/09 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2021/02/10 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 85.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/02/10 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/11 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 85.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 45

120H: 2021/02/12 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 30 SW: 75 NW: 85

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5 CI=6.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE RING AROUND FARAJI EYE HAS MOSTLY
CONTINUED TO WARM UP PROBABLY IN RELATION WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE
OVERSEA BUT ALSO MAY BE IN RELATION WITH THE COOLING OF THE WATERS
BENEATH. SINCE THE LAST FEW HOURS THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO COOL DOWN
AGAIN
SINCE A FEW HOURS, THE MORE SUSTAINED EASTWARD MOTION SEEMS TO BE
ALSO CONFIRMED . IN AGREEMENT WITH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS, INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 100KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, FARAJI IS MOVING EASTWARD, UNER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW
GOING DOWN, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT SOUTH. GIVEN THE
TIGHT LINK BETWEEN THE RATE OF DECAY AND THE TRACK, THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT IS SHOWN BY STRONG SPREAD AMONG THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE. CURRENT FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MEANS.

FARAJI REMAINS UNDER THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF ALTITUDE WHICH ALLOWS
HIM TO BENEFIT FROM A GOOD DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE WHILE ESCAPING THE
WIND SHEAR. DESPITE ITS PRESENCE OVER HIGH POTENTIAL WATERS, FARAJI
SLOW MOTION PUTS IT UNDER RISK OF COOLING THE WATERS BENEATH. IF
FARAJI CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY, IT SHOULD ESCAPE THIS WEAKENING.
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STARTING MONDAY, A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST, IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE A SOUTHWESTERN SHEAR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. ASSOCIATED WITH
DRY AIR, THIS STRESS SHOULD STOP THE INTENSIFICATION AND THEN WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM MORE STRONGLY ON TUESDAY. THE AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS CHRONOLOGY.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED LANDS.=

>

2021-02-07 18:12


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 071811
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 07/02/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 80.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 160 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/08 AT 06 UTC:
14.5 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/08 AT 18 UTC:
14.4 S / 82.3 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-07 13:32


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071242
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/10/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 07/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.7 S / 79.9 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 939 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/02/2021 00 UTC: 14.5 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SO: 230 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 08/02/2021 12 UTC: 14.5 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 09/02/2021 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 260 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 09/02/2021 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 10/02/2021 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

72H: 10/02/2021 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2021 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 86.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SO: 215 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 75

120H: 12/02/2021 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 220 NO: 55

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5 CI=6.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ANNEAU CONVECTIF AUTOUR DE L'OEIL
DE FARAJI S'EST TRES NETTEMENT RECHAUFFE PROBABLEMENT SOUS L'EFFET DU
CYCLE DIURNE DE LA CONVECTION SUR MER MAIS PEUT ETRE EGALEMENT A
CAUSE DU REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS-JACENTES. DEPUIS QUELQUES
HEURES LE SYSTEME A REPRIS UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS MARQUE VERS L'EST. EN
ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES,
L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 105KT.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, FARAJI SE DEPLACE VERS L'EST, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE LOCALISEE AU NORD DU SYSTEME.
EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME ET LA BAISSE
DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT ETRE
INFLUENCE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSES COUCHES AU SUD. AU VU
DU LIEN ETROIT ENTRE LA VITESSE DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LA
TRAJECTOIRE, LA PREVISION EST PARTICULIEREMENT INCERTAINE. CELA SE
TRADUIT AU SEIN DES MODELES NUMERIQUES PAR UNE FORTE DISPERSION. LA
PREVISION ACTUELLE EST UNE MOYENNE DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES NUMERIQUES
DETERMINISTES ET DES MOYENNES D'ENSEMBLE.

FARAJI RESTE SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE CE QUI LUI PERMET DE
BENEFICIER D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE TOUT EN ECHAPPANT AU
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT. MALGRE SA PRESENCE SUR DES EAUX AU FORT
POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE, LE LENT DEPLACEMENT DE FARAJI, CES DERNIERES
HEURES INDUIT UN RISQUE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PAR REFROIDISSEMENT DES
EAUX SOUS JACENTES. S'IL CONTINUE SON ACCELERATION VERS L'EST CE
RISQUE DEVRAIT RESTER LIMITE. UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL EST EGALEMENT POSSIBLE. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, UN TALWEG SE
RAPPROCHE DU SYSTEME PAR LE SUD-OUEST EN FAISANT APPARAITRE UN
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. ASSOCIEE A
DE L'AIR SEC, CETTE CONTRAINTE DEVRAIT STOPPER L'INTENSIFICATION PUIS
AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME PLUS FRANCHEMENT A PARTIR DE MARDI. LES MODELES
DISPONIBLES SONT PLUTOT EN BON ACCORD SUR CETTE CHRONOLOGIE.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

>

2021-02-07 13:32


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071242
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/10/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 79.9 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 939 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/08 00 UTC: 14.5 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2021/02/08 12 UTC: 14.5 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/09 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/02/09 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/02/10 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

72H: 2021/02/10 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/11 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 86.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 75

120H: 2021/02/12 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 55

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5 CI=6.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE RING AROUND FARAJI EYE GOT QUITE
WARMER PROBABLY IN RELATION WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE OVERSEA BUT ALSO
MAY BE IN RELATION WITH THE COOLING OF THE WATERS BENEATH. SINCE A
FEW HOURS, THE CYCLONE HAS STARTED A MORE SUSTAINED EASTWARD MOTION.
IN AGREEMENT WITH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS, INTENSITY
IS MAINTAINED TO 105KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, FARAJI IS MOVING EASTWARD, UNER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW
GOING DOWN, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT SOUTH. GIVEN THE
TIGHT LINK BETWEEN THE RATE OF DECAY AND THE TRACK, THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT IS SHOWN BY STRONG SPREAD AMONG THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE. CURRENT FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MEANS.

FARAJI REMAINS UNDER THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF ALTITUDE WHICH ALLOWS
HIM TO BENEFIT FROM A GOOD DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE WHILE ESCAPING THE
WIND SHEAR. DESPITE ITS PRESENCE OVER HIGH POTENTIAL WATERS, FARAJI
SLOW MOTION PUTS IT UNDER RISK OF COOLING THE WATERS BENEATH. IF
FARAJI CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY, IT SHOULD ESCAPE THIS WEAKENING.
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STARTING MONDAY, A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST, IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE A SOUTHWESTERN SHEAR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. ASSOCIATED WITH
DRY AIR, THIS STRESS SHOULD STOP THE INTENSIFICATION AND THEN WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM MORE STRONGLY ON TUESDAY. THE AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS CHRONOLOGY.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED LANDS.=

>

2021-02-07 12:29


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 071229
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 07/02/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI) 939 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 79.9 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/08 AT 00 UTC:
14.5 S / 80.7 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/08 AT 12 UTC:
14.5 S / 81.7 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-07 09:02


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 79.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 79.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 14.9S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 14.7S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.6S 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.7S 83.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.6S 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 16.3S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.3S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 80.0E.
07FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
639 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A 24 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE PRESENCE OF THE
EYE FEATURE LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION,
WHICH HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY (QS) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127
KTS, FMEE), T6.0 (115 KTS, PGTW) AND T5.5 (102 KTS, FIMP). TC 19S
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) TO THE NORTH AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-
10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) AND ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
DESPITE THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, TC FARAJI WILL STRUGGLE TO
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT 115 KTS INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE
TO ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM
AND A LIKELY LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AS A RESULT OF THE QS STORM
MOTION. AFTER TAU 24, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT GRADUAL
RE-INTENSIFICATION TO 120 KTS BY TAU 48. THEREAFTER, A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BY TAU 72 WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM. INITIALLY, THE STEERING STR WILL DRIVE THE
SYSTEM POLEWARD AFTER TAU 72 AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 96.
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS AFTER TAU 72, COUPLED WITH COOLING SST AND
CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH WILL LEAD TO
FURTHER WEAKENING TO 70 KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE INITIAL EASTWARD TRACK HOWEVER THE
DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE BUILDING STR RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE POLEWARD RE-CURVATURE AFTER TAU 72. THIS UNCERTAINTY
LENDS ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS
PLACED LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET A SIGNIFICANT
POLEWARD TRACK BIAS FROM THE NAVGEM SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND
080900Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-02-07 07:30


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 070701
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/10/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 07/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.8 S / 79.7 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.5/6.5/D 2.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 939 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/02/2021 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SO: 240 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 08/02/2021 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 08/02/2021 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 09/02/2021 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 09/02/2021 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

72H: 10/02/2021 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 84.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 250 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2021 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 280 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 100

120H: 12/02/2021 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 175 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 65

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'OEIL DE FARAJI DANS LES IMAGERIES
CLASSIQUES S'EST NETTEMENT ECLAIRCI. LES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES
SONT PROCHES DE 6.5 DEPUIS QUELQUES HEURES. EN IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES,
LES DERNIERES PASSES MONTRENT LA NETTE CONSOLIDATION DU MUR DE
L'OEIL, NOTAMMENT LA SSMIS DE 2325Z. UNE PASSE SMAP A 0033Z DONNE
EGALEMENT 88KT EN MAXIMUM DE VENT. LE STADE DE CYCLONE INTENSE A DONC
ETE ATTEINT ET EN ACCORD AVEC LES PRINCIPALES ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES ET
OBJECTIVES, L'INTENSITE EST FIXEE A 105KT.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME COMMENCE A
S'EFFACER CE QUI PERMETTRA UN DEBUT DE DEPLACEMENT VERS L'EST DANS
LES PROCHAINES HEURES, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE
LOCALISEE AU NORD DU SYSTEME. AVEC LA DISPARITION DE CES INFLUENCES
CONTRADICTOIRES, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE FARAJI DEVRAIT PRENDRE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS L'EST EN ACCELERANT. EN FIN DE
PERIODE, UNE DORSALE SE RENFORCE A NOUVEAU A L'EST DU SYSTEME
PERMETTANT ALORS A LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE REPRENDRE
PROGRESSIVEMENT LE DESSUS SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR. SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE
CES DEUX CENTRES, FARAJI DEVRAIT OPERER UN VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST
CONCOMITANT A SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT. CES MULTIPLES INFLUENCES INDUISENT
DE NOMBREUSES INCERTITUDES, ET UNE FORTE DISPERSION QUI TEND A SE
REDUIRE. LES VITESSES DE DEPLACEMENT SONT UN DES PRINCIPAUX POINTS DE
DIVERGENCE DANS LES DERNIERES SORTIES NUMERIQUES.

FARAJI RESTE SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE CE QUI LUI PERMET DE
BENEFICIER D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE TOUT EN ECHAPPANT AU
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT. MALGRE SA PRESENCE SUR DES EAUX AU FORT
POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE, LE TRES LENT DEPLACEMENT DE FARAJI, CES
DERNIERES HEURES INDUIT UN FORT RISQUE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PAR
REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS JACENTES. S'IL REPREND UN DEPLACEMENT
PLUS FRANC VERS L'EST IL POURRAIT ECHAPPER A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
ENVISAGE DANS LA PREVISION A COURT TERME. UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU
MUR DE L'OEIL EST EGALEMENT POSSIBLE. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, UN TALWEG SE
RAPPROCHE DU SYSTEME PAR LE SUD-OUEST EN FAISANT APPARAITRE UN
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. ASSOCIEE A
DE L'AIR SEC, CETTE CONTRAINTE DEVRAIT STOPPER L'INTENSIFICATION PUIS
AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME PLUS FRANCHEMENT A PARTIR DE MARDI. LES MODELES
DISPONIBLES SONT PLUTOT EN BON ACCORD SUR CETTE CHRONOLOGIE.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

>

2021-02-07 07:30


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 070701
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/10/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8 S / 79.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 2.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 939 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/07 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 240 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2021/02/08 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/08 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/02/09 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/02/09 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

72H: 2021/02/10 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 84.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/11 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 100

120H: 2021/02/12 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, FARAJI EYE GOT CLEARER IN CLASSICAL IMAGES.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS ARE AROUND 6.5 FOR A FEW HOURS. THE
MICROWAVE DATA CONFIRM THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE EYEWALL (2325Z SSMIS).
A SMAP SWATH (0033Z) INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 88KT. INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS THEREFORE REACHED AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS, INTENSITY IS SET TO 105KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO
FADE AWAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A START OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THESE CONTRADICTORY
INFLUENCES, FARAJI'S TRACK IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION AND ACCELERATE. AT LONGER RANGE, A RIDGE IS AGAIN
STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL HELP THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, GRADUALLY TAKING OVER THE STEERING FLOW. UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THESE TWO CENTERS, FARAJI SHOULD MAKE A WESTWARD TURN SIMULTANEOUS
TO ITS WEAKENING. THESE MULTIPLE INFLUENCES GENERATE A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTIES AND A STRONG SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCE EVEN IF IT IS
DECREASING. SPEED MOTION IS ONE OF THE MOST DIVERGENT PARAMETERS IN
THE LAST RUNS.

FARAJI REMAINS UNDER THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF ALTITUDE WHICH ALLOWS
HIM TO BENEFIT FROM A GOOD DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE WHILE ESCAPING THE
WIND SHEAR. DESPITE ITS PRESENCE OVER HIGH POTENTIAL WATERS, FARAJI
SLOW MOTION PUTS IT UNDER RISK OF COOLING THE WATERS BENEATH. IT THE
FARAJI STARTS MOVING AGAIN, IT SHOULD ESCAPE THE WEAKENING FORECAST
AT SHORT RANGE. AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
STARTING MONDAY, A TROUGH APPROACHING THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A SOUTHWESTERN SHEAR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE.
ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR, THIS STRESS SHOULD STOP THE INTENSIFICATION
AND THEN WEAKEN THE SYSTEM MORE STRONGLY ON TUESDAY. THE AVAILABLE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS CHRONOLOGY.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED LANDS.=

>

2021-02-07 06:34


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 070633
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 07/02/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI) 939 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8 S / 79.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/07 AT 18 UTC:
14.9 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/08 AT 06 UTC:
14.9 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-07 00:32


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 070025
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/10/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 07/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.9 S / 79.6 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/02/2021 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SO: 250 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 08/02/2021 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 08/02/2021 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SO: 270 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 09/02/2021 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SO: 270 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 09/02/2021 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 270 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 10/02/2021 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SO: 260 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2021 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 75

120H: 12/02/2021 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 75

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'AMORCE D'OEIL S'EST CONFIRMEE,
AVEC UN ANNEAU CONVECTIF DONT LA TEMPERATURE DES SOMMETS A FLUCTUEE.
DANS CETTE CONFIGURATION, UNE ANALYSE DVORAK D'UN SYSTEME EN OEIL EST
ASSEZ FLUCTUANTE MAIS PEUT ETRE FAITE A 5.5-. UNE PHASE
D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE CONCERNE DONC FARAJI. CELA LAISSE ENCORE
FARAJI AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL, MAIS PAS POUR LONGTEMPS. LES
VENTS MAXIMAUX PEUVENT ETRE ESTIMES A 85KT.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME COMMENCE A
S'EFFACER CE QUI PERMETTRA UN DEBUT DE DEPLACEMENT VERS L'EST DANS
LES PROCHAINES HEURES, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE
LOCALISEE AU NORD DU SYSTEME. AVEC LA DISPARITION DE CES INFLUENCES
CONTRADICTOIRES, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE FARAJI DEVRAIT PRENDRE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS L'EST EN S'ACCELERANT. EN FIN DE
PERIODE, UNE DORSALE SE RENFORCE A NOUVEAU A L'EST DU SYSTEME TOUT
COMME LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QUI REPREND PROGRESSIVEMENT LE DESSUS
SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR. SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE CES DEUX CENTRES, FARAJI
DEVRAIT OPERER UN VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST EN LIEN AVEC SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT. CES MULTIPLES INFLUENCES RESTENT DIFFICILES A GERER
POUR LES MODELES, CE QUI ENGENDRE UNE FORTE DISPERSION TRADUISANT UNE
FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DE FARAJI A PARTIR DE LUNDI. LA
DIVERGENCE DES MODELES SE SITUE PLUTOT SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT
ET LA CHRONOLOGIE DU VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST, LORS DE LA REPRISE DANS LE
FLUX DE BASSES COUCHES LORS QUE LE SYSTEME SE SERA AFFAIBLIT.

FARAJI RESTE SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE CE QUI LUI PERMETT
DE BENEFICIER D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE TOUT EN ECHAPPANT AU
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT. SUR DES EAUX AU FORT POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE,
FARAJI DEVRAIT CONTINUER A CONNAITRE UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION
RELATIVEMENT RAPIDE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 36H. A PARTIR DE LUNDI,
UN TALWEG SE RAPPROCHE DU SYSTEME PAR LE SUD-OUEST EN FAISANT
APPARAITRE UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. ASSOCIEE A DE L'AIR SEC, CETTE CONTRAINTE DEVRAIT
STOPPER L'INTENSIFICATION A PARTIR DE LUNDI PUIS AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME
PLUS FRANCHEMENT MARDI. LES MODELES DISPONIBLES SONT PLUTOT EN BON
ACCORD SUR CETTE CHRONOLOGIE EN INTENSITE (CONTRAIREMENT A LA
DIVERGENCE EN TRAJECTOIRE), PLUSIEURS SUGGERANT DESORMAIS UNE BONNE
PROBABILITE D'ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

>

2021-02-07 00:32


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 070025
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/10/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/07 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 79.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/07 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 250 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/02/08 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/08 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2021/02/09 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/02/09 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/02/10 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/11 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 75

120H: 2021/02/12 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING
UP
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE INITIATION WAS CONFIRMED, WITH A
CONVECTIVE RING WITH FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURE OF CLOUD TOPS. IN THIS
CONFIGURATION, A DVORAK ANALYSIS OF A SYSTEM IN EYE IS QUITE
FLUCTUATING BUT CAN BE DONE AT 5.5-. A PHASE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
THUS CONCERNS FARAJI. THIS STILL LEAVES FARAJI AT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE, BUT NOT FOR LONG. MAXIMUM WINDS CAN BE ESTIMATED AT
85KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO
FADE AWAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A START OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THESE CONTRADICTORY
INFLUENCES, FARAJI'S TRACK IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE EASTERLY TRACK
AND ACCELERATE. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, A RIDGE IS AGAIN
STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM, AS IS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH
IS GRADUALLY REGAINING THE UPPER HAND OVER THE GUIDING FLOW. UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO CENTERS, FARAJI SHOULD MAKE A WESTWARD
TURN IN RELATION TO ITS WEAKENING. THESE MULTIPLE INFLUENCES REMAIN
DIFFICULT TO MANAGE FOR THE MODELS, WHICH GENERATES A STRONG
DISPERSION REFLECTING A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON FARAJI'S TRACK FROM
MONDAY. THE DIVERGENCE OF THE MODELS IS RATHER ON THE SPEED OF
DISPLACEMENT AND THE CHRONOLOGY OF THE WESTWARD TURN, DURING THE
RESUMPTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAKENED.

FARAJI REMAINS UNDER THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF ALTITUDE WHICH ALLOWS
HIM TO BENEFIT FROM A GOOD DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE WHILE ESCAPING THE
WIND SHEAR. ON WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL, FARAJI SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A PHASE OF RELATIVELY RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STARTING MONDAY, A TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SHOWING SOUTHWESTERN SHEAR IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE. ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR, THIS STRESS SHOULD STOP THE
INTENSIFICATION FROM MONDAY AND THEN WEAKEN THE SYSTEM MORE STRONGLY
ON TUESDAY. THE AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
INTENSITY CHRONOLOGY (CONTRARY TO THE TRACK DIVERGENCE), SEVERAL
SUGGESTING NOW A GOOD PROBABILITY TO REACH THE STAGE OF INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED LANDS.=

>

2021-02-07 00:03


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 070002
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 07/02/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 79.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/07 AT 12 UTC:
15.1 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/08 AT 00 UTC:
15.1 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-06 20:20


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 14.7S 79.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 79.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 15.0S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.1S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.0S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.9S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.2S 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.1S 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 17.3S 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 79.7E.
06FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 619
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A PINHOLE EYE AS IT
BECAME MORE COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WHICH LINED UP WELL
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS IN THE 061639Z ASCAT BULLSEYE
PASS AND THE 061544Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
75KTS IS HEDGED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65KTS (PGTW AND FMEE) AND T4.6/79KTS (ADT) TO
REFLECT THE 6-HR IMPROVEMENT IN THE EIR SIGNATURE. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SST, ROBUST DUAL OUTFLOW
ALOFT, AND LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 19S IS SLOWLY
COMING OUT OF A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) STATE AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH STEERS IT SLOWLY EASTWARD. AFTER TAU 48, A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST WILL BUILD, ASSUME STEERING AND
GRADUALLY DRIVE THE CYCLONE SOUTHWARD. CONTINUED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL FUEL STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK
OF 110KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, A GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL COMMENCE AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD AND VWS BECOMES MODERATE (15-25 KTS), AND
BY TAU 120, WILL BE REDUCED TO 70KTS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM THAT IS TO THE RIGHT
OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. HOWEVER, THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM MOTIONS
IN THE POST-QS PHASE AND DURING THE STEERING TRANSITION, LEND AN
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070900Z AND 072100Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-06 18:41


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 061839
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/10/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 06/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.7 S / 79.5 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/02/2021 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 07/02/2021 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 08/02/2021 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 270 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 08/02/2021 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 270 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 09/02/2021 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 260 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 09/02/2021 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 270 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2021 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 335 SO: 360 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75

120H: 11/02/2021 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SO: 295 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 85

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN CDO
S'EST MAINTENUE EN LAISSANT APPARAITRE UN RECHAUFFEMENT EN SON
CENTRE. CELA DEFINIT UNE AMORCE D'OEIL QUI APPARAIT DE PLUS EN PLUS
NETTEMENT SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES INFRAROUGES. EN L'ABSENCE DE
DONNEES ASCAT, L'ANALYSE DVORAK A 4.5- PERMET UNE ESTIMATION DES
VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 65KT.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LES GRANDS CENTRES QUI ONT UNE INFLUENCE SUR
LA TRAJECTOIRE DE FARAJI SONT NOMBREUX: LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
SUD-SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE LOCALISEE AU NORD
IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME AINSI QUE UNE DORSALE A L'EST. SOUS CES
INFLUENCES CONTRADICTOIRES, LA TRAJECTOIRE CONTINUE D'ETRE
RELATIVEMENT ERRATIQUE ET LENTE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD AU COURS
DES PROCHAINES 12H. PAR LA SUITE, AVEC L'EFFACEMENT DE LA DORSALE A
L'EST ET LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE, FARAJI DEVRAIT
PRENDRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS L'EST PUIS LE SUD-EST.
EN FIN DE PERIODE, UNE DORSALE SE RENFORCE A L'EST DU SYSTEME TOUT
COMME LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QU REPREND PROGRESSIVEMENT LE DESSUS
SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR. SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE CES DEUX CENTRES, FARAJI
DEVRAIT OPERER UN VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST EN LIEN AVEC SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT. CES MULTIPLES INFLUENCES RESTENT DIFFICILES A GERER
POUR LES MODELES, CE QUI ENGENDRE UNE FORTE DISPERSION TRADUISANT UNE
FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DE FARAJI A PARTIR DE LUNDI. LA
DIVERGENCE DES MODELES SE SITUE PLUTOT SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT
ET LA CHRONOLOGIE DU VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST, LORS DE LA REPRISE DANS LE
FLUX DE BASSES COUCHES LORS QUE LE SYSTEME SE SERA AFFAIBLIT.

FARAJI SE SITUE SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE EN GLISSANT VERS
LE SUD, CE QUI DEVRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE BENEFICIER D'UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE TOUT EN ECHAPPANT AU CISAILLEMENT DE VENT. SUR
DES EAUX AU FORT POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE, FARAJI DEVRAIT CONNAITRE UNE
PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION RELATIVEMENT RAPIDE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
36H. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, UN TALWEG SE RAPPROCHE DU SYSTEME PAR LE
SUD-OUEST EN FAISANT APPARAITRE UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST
EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. ASSOCIEE A DE L'AIR SEC, CETTE CONTRAINTE
DEVRAIT STOPPER L'INTENSIFICATION A PARTIR DE LUNDI PUIS AFFAIBLIR LE
SYSTEME PLUS FRANCHEMENT MARDI. LES MODELES DISPONIBLES SONT PLUTOT
EN BON ACCORD SUR CETTE CHRONOLOGIE EN INTENSITE (CONTRAIREMENT A LA
DIVERGENCE EN TRAJECTOIRE), PLUSIEURS SUGGERANT DESORMAIS UNE BONNE
PROBABILITE D'ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

>

2021-02-06 18:41


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 061839
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/10/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 79.5 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/07 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/02/07 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/08 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/02/08 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/02/09 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/02/09 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/10 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 335 SW: 360 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75

120H: 2021/02/11 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SW: 295 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 85

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CDO CLOUD PATTERN WAS MAINTAINED WITH A
WARM-UP IN THE CENTER. THIS DEFINES AN INITIAL EYE PATTERN THAT
APPEARS MORE AND MORE CLEARLY ON THE LAST INFRARED IMAGES. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ASCAT DATA, THE DVORAK A 4.5- ANALYSIS ALLOWS A WIND
ESTIMATE OF AROUND 65KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE MAIN CENTERS THAT HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON
FARAJI'S TRACK ARE NUMEROUS: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE
IMMEDIATE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A RIDGE IN THE EAST. UNDER THESE
CONTRADICTORY INFLUENCES, THE TRACK CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY
ERRATIC AND SLOW IN A GENERAL SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THEREAFTER, WITH THE CLEARING OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE, FARAJI IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A
MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD TRACK TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST. AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD, A RIDGE STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE SYSTEM, AS DOES THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH GRADUALLY REGAINS THE UPPER HAND OVER THE
GUIDING FLOW. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO CENTERS, FARAJI SHOULD
MAKE A TURN TO THE WEST IN CONNECTION WITH ITS WEAKENING. THESE
MULTIPLE INFLUENCES REMAIN DIFFICULT TO MANAGE FOR THE MODELS, WHICH
GENERATES A STRONG DISPERSION REFLECTING A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON
FARAJI'S TRACK FROM MONDAY. THE DIVERGENCE OF THE MODELS IS RATHER ON
THE SPEED OF DISPLACEMENT AND THE CHRONOLOGY OF THE WESTWARD TURN,
DURING THE RESUMPTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE
WEAKENED.

FARAJI IS LOCATED UNDER THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF ALTITUDE WHILE
SLIDING SOUTHWARD, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IT TO BENEFIT FROM A GOOD
DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE WHILE ESCAPING THE WIND SHEAR. ON WATERS WITH
HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL, FARAJI SHOULD EXPERIENCE A RELATIVELY RAPID
INTENSIFICATION PHASE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STARTING MONDAY, A
TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SHOWING
SOUTHWESTERN SHEAR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR,
THIS CONSTRAINT SHOULD STOP THE INTENSIFICATION FROM MONDAY THEN
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM MORE FRANKLY ON TUESDAY. THE AVAILABLE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS INTENSITY CHRONOLOGY (CONTRARY TO THE TRACK
DIVERGENCE), SEVERAL SUGGESTING NOW A GOOD PROBABILITY TO REACH THE
STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED LANDS.=

>

2021-02-06 18:28


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 061827 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 06/02/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 79.5 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/07 AT 06 UTC:
15.1 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/07 AT 18 UTC:
15.2 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-06 18:09


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 061808
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 06/02/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (FARAJI) CENTRAL PRESSURE NIL
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 79.5 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/07 AT 06 UTC:
15.1 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/07 AT 18 UTC:
15.2 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-06 13:01


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 061236
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/10/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 06/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.2 S / 79.8 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 981 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/02/2021 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 07/02/2021 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 260 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 08/02/2021 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SO: 260 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 08/02/2021 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 285 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 09/02/2021 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 09/02/2021 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 285 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2021 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 35

120H: 11/02/2021 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 220 SO: 165 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 65 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 40

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST
ENCORE AMELIOREE, AVEC UNE CONVECTION PROFONDE PLUS FROIDE AU SEIN
D'UN CDO BIEN DA FINI.
LE RENFORCEMENT EN COURS DU COEUR INTERNE EST CONFIRME PAR L'IMAGE EN
89HZ DE LA PASSE SSMI DE 1041Z, OU APPARAIT UN OEIL FERME MAIS ENCORE
ENCORE VISIBLE SUR L'IMAGERIE VISIBLE.
CETTE STRUCTURE ET LE MAINTIEN DE LA BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
LAISSENT PENSER QUE FARAJI POURRAIT CONNAITRE UNE PHASE
D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, FARAJI RESTE SOUS L'INFLUENCE
OPPOSEE DE DEUX CENTRES D'ACTION : LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
SUD-SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME ET LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE LOCALISEE AU NORD
IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME. SOUS CES INFLUENCES CONTRADICTOIRES, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT ETRE RELATIVEMENT ERRATIQUE ET LENTE EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DU SUD VOIRE SUD-SUD-OUEST, AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 12/24H,
SOUS L'INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE DE LA DORSALE PRESENTE VERS 500/400HPA
DANS L'EST DU SYSTEME (DUE A L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME).
PAR LA SUITE, L'ISOLEMENT D'UN CUT-OFF DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU
SUD-OUEST DE FARAJI, ASSOCIE AU RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE
EQUATORIALE ET L'EFFACEMENT DE LA DORSALE A L'EST, DEVRAIT LE
POUSSER PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS L'EST PUIS LE SUD-EST.
EN FIN DE PERIODE, LA DORSALE SE RENFORCE A L'EST DU SYSTEME, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE FARADJI PREND UNE COMPOSANTE PLUS SUD.
CES MULTIPLES INFLUENCES RESTENT DIFFICILES A GERER POUR LES MODELES,
CE QUI ENGENDRE UNE FORTE DISPERSION TRADUISANT UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE
SUR LA POSITION DE FARAJI A PARTIR DE LUNDI.

FARAJI SE SITUE SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE EN GLISSANT VERS
LE SUD, CE QUI DEVRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE BENEFICIER D'UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE TOUT EN ECHAPPANT AU CISAILLEMENT. SUR DES EAUX
AU FORT POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE, FARAJI DEVRAIT CONNAITRE UNE PHASE
D'INTENSIFICATION RELATIVEMENT RAPIDE AU COURS DU WEEK-END. A PARTIR
DE LUNDI, UN THALWEG SE RAPPROCHE DU SYSTEME PAR LE SUD-OUEST EN
FAISANT APPARAITRE UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. ASSOCIEE A DE L'AIR SEC, CETTE CONTRAINTE DEVRAIT
FORTEMENT RALENTIR L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME VOIRE MEME LA STOPPER
A PARTIR DE MARDI. MARDI SOIR, LE CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE AUGMENTE A
SON TOUR ET DEVRAIT AFFAIBLIR PLUS EFFICACEMENT LE METEORE. LES
MODELES DISPONIBLES SONT PLUTOT EN BON ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO GLOBAL,
PLUSIEURS SUGGERANT DESORMAIS UNE BONNE PROBABILITE D'ATTEINDRE LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

>

2021-02-06 13:01


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 061236
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/10/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 79.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/07 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/02/07 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/08 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/02/08 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 285 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2021/02/09 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/02/09 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 285 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/10 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 35

120H: 2021/02/11 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+


OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED FURTHER, WITH
COOLER DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED CDO.
THE ONGOING STRENGTHENING OF THE INNER CORE IS CONFIRMED BY THE 89HZ
IMAGE OF THE 1041Z SSMI, WHERE A CLOSED EYE IS NOTICED. BUT THIS EYE
DOES NOT APPEAR ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY.
THIS STRUCTURE AND THE GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUGGEST THAT
FARAJI COULD EXPERIENCE A PHASE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY FORECAST, FARAJI REMAINS UNDER THE OPPOSITE
INFLUENCE OF TWO MAIN RIDGES: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE
IMMEDIATE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.UNDER THESE CONTRADICTORY INFLUENCES,
THE TRAJECTORY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY ERRATIC AND SLOW IN A GENERAL
SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION, DURING THE NEXT 12/24 HOURS,
UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE PRESENT IN THE 500/400HPA IN
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM (DUE TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM).
THEREAFTER, THE ISOLATION OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
FARAJI, COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND
THE ERASING OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST, SHOULD PUSH IT MORE SHARPLY
EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE RIDGE
BECOMES STRONGER IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, AND FARADJI'S TRAJECTORY
TRACKS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY WAY. THESE MULTIPLE INFLUENCES REMAIN
DIFFICULT TO MANAGE FOR THE NUMERICAL MODELS, WHICH LEADS TO A STRONG
DISPERSION REFLECTING A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON FARAJI'S POSITION FROM
MONDAY.

FARAJI LIES BELOW THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH ALTITUDE SLIDING
SOUTHWARDS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IT TO BENEFIT FROM A GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE WHILE ESCAPING SHEARING. ON WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY
POTENTIAL, FARAJI SHOULD EXPERIENCE A RELATIVELY RAPID
INTENSIFICATION PHASE OVER THE WEEKEND. FROM MONDAY, A TROUGH IS
MOVING NEXT THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST, REVEALING A SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR ALOFT. COMBINED WITH DRY AIR, THIS CONSTRAINT SHOULD STRONGLY
SLOW DOWN THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AND EVEN STOP IT FROM
TUESDAY ONWARDS. ON TUESDAY EVENING, THE UPPER SHEAR INCREASES AND
SHOULD WEAKEN THE METEOR MORE EFFECTIVELY. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GLOBAL SCENARIO. SEVERAL
GUIDANCES NOW SUGGESTING A GOOD PROBABILITY OF REACHING THE RANK OF
AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY THREAT FOR INHABITED LANDS.=

>

2021-02-06 12:21


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 061219
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 06/02/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI) 981 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 79.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 110 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/07 AT 00 UTC:
14.8 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/07 AT 12 UTC:
14.9 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-06 08:58


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 14.0S 79.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 79.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 14.5S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 14.8S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 14.7S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 14.6S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.8S 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.8S 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 16.8S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 79.8E.
06FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
597 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CURVED
BANDING IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KTS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS, FMEE) AND T3.5 (55 KTS, PGTW
AND FIMP) AND A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T3.8 (61 KTS). TC FARAJI IS TRACKING THROUGH A HIGHLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY IN A COMPLEX, ALBEIT WEAK, STEERING ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS
SLOW SYSTEM MOTION, COUPLED WITH HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, WILL LEAD TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM TO
90 KTS BY TAU 12. DURING THIS TIME THE STORM MOTION IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY SLOW AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS POLEWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH-
EAST. AFTER TAU 12, TC FARAJI WILL BEGIN TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH AS THE INITIAL STEERING STR WEAKENS. CONTINUED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 72 AT WHICH TIME THE SYSTEM WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 110 KTS. THEREAFTER, A BUILDING STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST WILL
OVERTAKE STEERING AND BEGIN TO DRIVE TC FARAJI SOUTHEASTWARD. DURING
THIS TIME, MODERATE (15-25 KTS) VWS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TO 90 KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL FAIR
AGREEMENT. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE CONVERGED ON A GENERALLY EASTWARD
STORM MOTION AFTER TAU 24-36, HOWEVER THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE IN
TRACK DIRECTION IS COMPLICATED BY THE OVERALL COMPLEX AND DYNAMIC
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
EQUATORWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE CONTRIBUTION
FROM THE NAVGEM SOLUTION WHICH LIES 100NM SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS
TRACK AT TAU 36. OVERALL, MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS OVERALL FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-02-06 06:58


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 060657
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/10/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 06/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.1 S / 79.9 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 06/02/2021 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 240 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 07/02/2021 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 07/02/2021 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SO: 270 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

48H: 08/02/2021 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SO: 270 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 08/02/2021 18 UTC: 14.7 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 280 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 09/02/2021 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SO: 270 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2021 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 405 SO: 400 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

120H: 11/02/2021 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 85.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 345 SO: 285 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 40

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST
ENCORE AMELIOREE, AVEC LA FORMATION D'UN CDO BIEN DA FINI.
LE RENFORCEMENT EN COURS DU COEUR INTERNE EST CONFIRME PAR LES IMAGES
37GHZ ET 89GHZ DE LA PASSE SSMIS DE 0039Z, OU APPARAIT UN OEIL
QUASIMENT FERME SUR CES DEUX CANAUX.
CETTE STRUCTURE ET LA BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE LAISSENT PENSER QUE
FARAJI POURRAIT CONNAITRE UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE AU COURS
DES PROCHAINES 24H.

EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, FARAJI RESTE SOUS L'INFLUENCE
OPPOSEE DE DEUX CENTRES D'ACTION : LA DORSALE SUB-TROPICALE AU
SUD-SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME ET LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE LOCALISEE AU NORD
IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME. SOUS CES INFLUENCES CONTRADICTOIRES, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT ETRE RELATIVEMENT ERRATIQUE ET LENTE EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DU SUD VOIRE SUD-SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE (DUE A L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME) DE LA
DORSALE PRESENTE VERS 500/400HPA DANS L'EST DU SYSTEME.
PAR LA SUITE, L'ISOLATION D'UN CUT-OFF DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU
SUD-OUEST DE FARAJI, ASSOCIE AU RENFOCEMENT DE LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE
ET L'EFFACEMENT DE LA DORSALE A L'EST, DEVRAIT LE POUSSER PLUS
FRANCHEMENT VERS L'EST PUIS LE SUD-EST. EN FIN DE PERIODE, UNE
DORSALE SE RECONSTRUIT DANS L'EST DU SYSTEME ORIENTANT LE DEPLACEMENT
DU SYSTEME PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD.
CES MULTIPLES INFLUENCES RESTENT DIFFICILES A GERER POUR LES MODELES,
CE QUI ENGENDRE UNE FORTE DISPERSION TRADUISANT UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE
SUR LA POSITION DE FARAJI A PARTIR DE LUNDI.

FARAJI DEVRAIT SE PLACER SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE EN
GLISSANT VERS LE SUD, CE QUI DEVRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE BENEFICIER
D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE TOUT EN ECHAPPANT AU CISAILLEMENT.
SUR DES EAUX AU FORT POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE, FARAJI DEVRAIT CONNAITRE
UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION RELATIVEMENT RAPIDE AU COURS DU WEEK-END.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI, UN THALWEG SE RAPPROCHE DU SYSTEME PAR LE
SUD-OUEST EN FAISANT APPARAITRE UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST
EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. ASSOCIEE A DE L'AIR SEC, CETTE CONTRAINTE
DEVRAIT FORTEMENT RALENTIR L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME VOIRE MEME LA
STOPPER A PARTIR DE MARDI. MARDI SOIR, LE CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE
AUGMENTE A SON TOUR ET DEVRAIT AFFAIBLIR PLUS EFFICACEMENT LE
METEORE. LES MODELES DISPONIBLES SONT PLUTOT EN BON ACCORD SUR CE
SCENARIO GLOBAL, PLUSIEURS SUGGERANT DESORMAIS UNE BONNE PROBABILITE
D'ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

>

2021-02-06 06:58


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 060657
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/10/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 79.9 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/06 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/02/07 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/07 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

48H: 2021/02/08 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2021/02/08 18 UTC: 14.7 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2021/02/09 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/10 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 405 SW: 400 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2021/02/11 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 85.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 345 SW: 285 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, THE CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVED AGAIN WITH CONVECTION
ORGANIZED IN WELL DEFINED CDO.
THE CONSOLIDATION OF FARAJI'S INNER CORE IS ILLUSTRATED BY THE 37GHZ
AND 89GHZ SSMIS 0039Z IMAGE, WHERE AN QUITE CLOSED EYE APPEARS ON
THESE TWO CHANNELS.
THIS STRUCTURE AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE ARE SUGGESTING A FAIR CHANCE
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, FARAJI REMAINS UNDER OPPOSITE INFLUENCES
: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST AND THE EQUATORIAL
RIDGE IN THE NORTH. UNDER THESE CONTRARY INFLUENCES, THE TRACK IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE ERRATIC AND SLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS, FOLLOWING
A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MOTION, UNDER THE GROWING
INFLUENCE (DUE TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM) OF THE RIDGE
PRESENT AROUND 500/400HPA IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM.
THEN, A MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD ISOLATE ITSELF IN THE SOUTH-WEST
OF FARAJI, ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE
AND THE ERASING OF THE EASTERN RIDGE, SHOULD PUSH IT MORE STRONGLY
EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, A RIDGE
SHOULD REBUILT IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM, DIRECTING THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM MORE SHARPLY TO THE SOUTH.
THESE MULTIPLE INFLUENCES ARE DIFFICULT TO HANDLE FOR THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE, YIELDING A LARGE MODEL SPREAD ILLUSTRATING A STRONG
UNCERTAINTY ON FARAJI'S LOCATION FROM MONDAY.

FARAJI SHOULD RELOCATE UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IT TO STILL BENEFIT FROM A GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE WHILE ESCAPING THE SHEAR. OVER WATERS WITH HIGH HEAT
CONTENT, FARAJI SHOULD INTENSIFY QUITE QUICKLY OVER THE WEEK-END.
FROM MONDAY, A TROUGH IS COMING CLOSER FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND SHOULD
DRIVE THE EMERGENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. ASSOCIATED TO
DRY AIR, THIS CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW FARAJI'S DEVELOPMENT
DOWN, OR EVEN STOP IT TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER SHEAR
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE STORM MORE EFFICIENTLY.
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO, AND
NOW SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A FAIR PROBABILITY OF FARAJI REACHING THE
STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT FOR INHABITED LANDS.=

>

2021-02-06 06:17


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 060616
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 06/02/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 79.9 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/06 AT 18 UTC:
14.6 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/07 AT 06 UTC:
14.9 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-06 00:15


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 060011
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/10/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 06/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.7 S / 80.4 E
(TREIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 06/02/2021 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 250 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 07/02/2021 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 240 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 07/02/2021 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SO: 260 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 55

48H: 08/02/2021 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 08/02/2021 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 280 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 09/02/2021 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SO: 270 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2021 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SO: 285 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 55

120H: 11/02/2021 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SO: 240 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 70

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST
ENCORE AMELIOREE AVEC UN ENROULEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS PRONONCE AUTOUR
DU CENTRE DE CIRCULATION. L'IMAGE 37GHZ DE LA PASSE AMSR2 DE 2003Z
ILLUSTRE LE RENFORCEMENT EN COURS DU COEUR INTERNE, DEJA TRES SOLIDE
DANS LES BASSES COUCHES. CETTE STRUCTURE ET LA BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE LAISSENT PENSER QUE FARAJI POURRAIT CONNAITRE UNE PHASE
D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H.

EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, FARAJI RESTE SOUS L'INFLUENCE
OPPOSEE DE DEUX CENTRES D'ACTION : LA DORSALE SUB-TROPICALE AU
SUD-SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME ET LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE LOCALISEE AU NORD
IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME. SOUS CES INFLUENCES CONTRADICTOIRES, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT ETRE RELATIVEMENT ERRATIQUE ET LENTE EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DU SUD AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H. PAR LA SUITE,
L'ISOLATION D'UN CUT-OFF DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-OUEST DE
FARAJI DEVRAIT LE POUSSER PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS L'EST PUIS LE
SUD-EST. CES MULTIPLES INFLUENCES RESTENT DIFFICILES A GERER POUR LES
MODELES, CE QUI ENGENDRE UNE FORTE DISPERSION TRADUISANT UNE FORTE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA POSITION DE FARAJI A PARTIR DE LUNDI.

FARAJI DEVRAIT SE PLACER SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE EN
GLISSANT VERS LE SUD, CE QUI DEVRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE BENEFICIER
D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE TOUT EN ECHAPPANT AU CISAILLEMENT.
SUR DES EAUX AU FORT POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE, FARAJI DEVRAIT CONNAITRE
UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION RELATIVEMENT RAPIDE AU COURS DU WEEK-END.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI, UN THALWEG SE RAPPROCHE DU SYSTEME PAR LE
SUD-OUEST EN FAISANT APPARAITRE UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST
EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. ASSOCIEE A DE L'AIR SEC, CETTE CONTRAINTE
DEVRAIT FORTEMENT RALENTIR L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME VOIRE MEME LA
STOPPER A PARTIR DE MARDI. MARDI SOIR, LE CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE
AUGMENTE A SON TOUR ET DEVRAIT AFFAIBLIR PLUS EFFICACEMENT LE
METEORE. LES MODELES DISPONIBLES SONT PLUTOT EN BON ACCORD SUR CE
SCENARIO GLOBAL, PLUSIEURS SUGGERANT DESORMAIS UNE BONNE PROBABILITE
D'ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

>

2021-02-06 00:15


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 060011
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/10/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7 S / 80.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/06 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2021/02/07 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/07 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 55

48H: 2021/02/08 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2021/02/08 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/02/09 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/10 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 285 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 55

120H: 2021/02/11 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, THE CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVED AGAIN WITH CONVECTION
WRAPPING MORE TIGHTLY AROUND THE CENTER. THE 37GHZ AMSR2 2003Z IMAGE
ILLUSTRATES THE CONSOLIDATION OF FARAJI'S INNER CORE, ALREADY WELL
DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS STRUCTURE AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE
ARE SUGGESTING A FAIR CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, FARAJI REMAINS UNDER OPPOSITE INFLUENCES
: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST AND THE EQUATORIAL
RIDGE IN THE NORTH. UNDER THESE CONTRARY INFLUENCES, THE TRACK IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE ERRATIC AND SLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS, FOLLOWING
A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD MOTION. THEN, A MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD
ISOLATE ITSELF IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF FARAJI AND PUSH IT MORE STRONGLY
EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. THESE MULTIPLE INFLUENCES ARE
DIFFICULT TO HANDLE FOR THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, YIELDING A LARGE
MODEL SPREAD ILLUSTRATING A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON FARAJI'S LOCATION
FROM MONDAY.

FARAJI SHOULD RELOCATE UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IT TO STILL BENEFIT FROM A GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE WHILE ESCAPING THE SHEAR. OVER WATERS WITH HIGH HEAT
CONTENT, FARAJI SHOULD INTENSIFY QUITE QUICKLY OVER THE WEEK-END.
FROM MONDAY, A TROUGH IS COMING CLOSER FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND SHOULD
DRIVE THE EMERGENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. ASSOCIATED TO
DRY AIR, THIS CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW FARAJI'S DEVELOPMENT
DOWN, OR EVEN STOP IT TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER SHEAR
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE STORM MORE EFFICIENTLY.
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO, AND
NOW SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A FAIR PROBABILITY OF FARAJI REACHING THE
STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.


THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT FOR INHABITED LANDS.=

>

2021-02-06 00:02


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 060001
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 06/02/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7 S / 80.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/06 AT 12 UTC:
14.3 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/07 AT 00 UTC:
14.7 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-02-05 21:11


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 13.2S 80.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 80.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 13.6S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 14.1S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 14.4S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 14.4S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.2S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 14.9S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.1S 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 80.2E.
05FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 588
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRENGTHENING COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051605Z METOP-B AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS AN INTENSE CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING FROM THE WESTERN QUADRANT INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. A 051452Z ASCAT-A IMAGE REVEALS A LLCC WITH 30-35 KNOT WINDS, HOWEVER THE LLCC IS ON THE EDGE OF THE PASS AND ONLY SHOWS THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE LEADING TO THE CONCLUSION THAT IT IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON AVERAGING BETWEEN PGTW/FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS), ADT OF 3.4 (53 KNOTS), AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29C. OVERALL, THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLEX, WEAK AND EVOLVING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS HAS ALREADY PROVEN TRUE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WHEN IT WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY. THROUGH TAU 36, TC 19S WILL STEER SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STR WILL WEAKEN AND TC 19S SHOULD SLOW, PERHAPS BECOME BRIEFLY QUASI-STATIONARY, THEN TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD AS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) ASSUMES CONTROL OF THE STEERING. AFTER TAU 96, A WEAK STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OF THE SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD STEER IT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A WIDE SPREAD IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TURN TO THE EAST AND THEN TO THE SOUTH LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK AT THIS TIME. TC 19S HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY REACHING 100 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AND A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72 WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.
//
NNNN

>

2021-02-05 18:21


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051819
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/10/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 05/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.2 S / 80.4 E
(TREIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SO: 35 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 06/02/2021 06 UTC: 14.0 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 95

24H: 06/02/2021 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75

36H: 07/02/2021 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SO: 230 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 07/02/2021 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SO: 280 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

60H: 08/02/2021 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 08/02/2021 18 UTC: 14.2 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SO: 280 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/02/2021 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 445 SO: 315 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

120H: 10/02/2021 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 87.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 470 SO: 400 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 40 SO: 50 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION RESTE FORTE A
PROXIMITE DU CENTRE DE CIRCULATION. UNE BANDE INCURVEE A MEME EMERGE
DANS LE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST ALORS QUE FARAJI CONTINUE DE SUBIR
LES EFFETS D'UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR EST (15KT SELON LE
CIMSS). LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES F17 DE 1330Z MONTRENT UN COEUR EN
COURS DE CONSOLIDATION ET SUGGERENT EGALEMENT UN LEGER DEPHASAGE DU
CENTRE DE MOYENNE TROPO PAR RAPPORT AUX PLUS BAS NIVEAUX. LA PASSE
ASCAT-A DE 1501Z A MONTRE DES VENTS MAX DE 35KT. L'INTENSITE ANALYSEE
DU CMRS SE BASE SUR CES DONNEES, LEGEREMENT PLUS BASSES QUE
L'ESTIMATION DVORAK.

EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, FARAJI RESTE SOUS L'INFLUENCE
OPPOSEE DE DEUX CENTRES D'ACTION : LA DORSALE SUB-TROPICALE AU
SUD-SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME ET LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE LOCALISEE AU NORD
IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME. SOUS CES INFLUENCES CONTRADICTOIRES, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT ETRE RELATIVEMENT ERRATIQUE ET LENTE EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DU SUD AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 36H. PAR LA SUITE,
L'ISOLATION D'UN CUT-OFF DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD-OUEST DE
FARAJI DEVRAIT LE POUSSER PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS L'EST PUIS LE
SUD-EST. CES MULTIPLES INFLUENCES RESTENT DIFFICILES A GERER POUR LES
MODELES, CE QUI ENGENDRE UNE FORTE DISPERSION TRADUISANT UNE FORTE
INCERTITUDE A PARTIR DE LUNDI.

FARAJI DEVRAIT SE PLACER SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE EN
GLISSANT VERS LE SUD, CE QUI DEVRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE BENEFICIER
D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE TOUT EN ECHAPPANT AU CISAILLEMENT.
SUR DES EAUX AU FORT POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE, FARAJI DEVRAIT CONNAITRE
UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION RELATIVEMENT RAPIDE AU COURS DU WEEK-END.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI, UN THALWEG SE RAPPROCHE DU SYSTEME PAR LE
SUD-OUEST EN FAISANT APPARAITRE UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST
EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. ASSOCIEE A DE L'AIR SEC, CETTE CONTRAINTE
DEVRAIT FORTEMENT RALENTIR L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME VOIRE MEME LA
STOPPER. MARDI SOIR, LE CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE AUGMENTE A SON TOUR
ET DEVRAIT AFFAIBLIR PLUS EFFICACEMENT LE METEORE.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

>

2021-02-05 18:21


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051819
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/10/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 80.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SW: 35 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/06 06 UTC: 14.0 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 95

24H: 2021/02/06 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75

36H: 2021/02/07 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/02/07 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

60H: 2021/02/08 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/02/08 18 UTC: 14.2 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/09 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 445 SW: 315 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

120H: 2021/02/10 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 87.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 470 SW: 400 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 40 SW: 50 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG NEAR THE CENTER. A
CURVED BAND EMERGED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WHILE FARAJI
STILL UNDERGOES A WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR (15 KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS
ESTIMATES). THE 1330Z F17 MICRO-WAVE IMAGES SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING
INNER CORE AND ALSO SUGGEST A SLIGHT SHIFT BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL AND
LOW-LEVEL CENTERS. THE 1501Z ASCAT-A SWATH SHOWED 35 KT MAX WINDS.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THIS DATA, SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
DVORAK ESTIMATE.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, FARAJI REMAINS UNDER OPPOSITE INFLUENCES
: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST AND THE EQUATORIAL
RIDGE IN THE NORTH. UNDER THESE CONTRARY INFLUENCES, THE TRACK IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE ERRATIC AND SLOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS, FOLLOWING
A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD MOTION. THEN, A MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD
ISOLATE ITSELF IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF FARAJI AND PUSH IT MORE STRONGLY
EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. THESE MULTIPLE INFLUENCES ARE
DIFFICULT TO HANDLE FOR THE GUIDANCE, YIELDING A LARGE MODEL SPREAD
ILLUSTRATING A STRONG UNCERTAINTY FROM MONDAY.

FARAJI SHOULD RELOCATE UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IT TO STILL BENEFIT FROM A GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE WHILE ESCAPING THE SHEAR. OVER WATERS WITH HIGH HEAT
CONTENT, FARAJI SHOULD INTENSIFY QUITE QUICKLY OVER THE WEEK-END.
FROM MONDAY, A TROUGH IS COMING CLOSER FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND SHOULD
DRIVE THE EMERGENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. ASSOCIATED TO
DRY AIR, THIS CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW FARAJI'S DEVELOPMENT
DOWN, OR EVEN STOP IT. TUESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER SHEAR WILL ALSO
STRENGTHEN AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE STORM MORE EFFICIENTLY.


THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED LANDS.=

>

2021-02-05 18:19


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 051818 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 05/02/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 80.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 20
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/06 AT 06 UTC:
14.0 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 50 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/06 AT 18 UTC:
14.6 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
CORRECTED CENTRAL PRESSURE.=

>

2021-02-05 18:06


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 051805
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 05/02/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI) CENTRAL PRESSURE NIL
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 80.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 20
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/06 AT 06 UTC:
14.0 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 50 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/06 AT 18 UTC:
14.6 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2021-02-05 12:42


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051238
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/10/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 05/02/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.2 S / 81.2 E
(TREIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 75 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 06/02/2021 00 UTC: 13.7 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 150 SO: 280 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 100

24H: 06/02/2021 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 155 SO: 280 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55

36H: 07/02/2021 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SO: 280 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 65

48H: 07/02/2021 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SO: 280 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 75

60H: 08/02/2021 00 UTC: 13.9 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 280 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 75

72H: 08/02/2021 12 UTC: 13.7 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 280 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/02/2021 12 UTC: 14.0 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 280 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

120H: 10/02/2021 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SO: 280 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SO: 50 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

SOUS DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES PROPICES, LE SYSTEME 10 A
CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER POUR ATTEINDRE LE SEUIL DE TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE. IL A ETE BAPTISE FARAJI A 11UTC PAR LE SERVICE
METEOROLOGIQUE MAURICIEN. AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6HEURES, LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A FLUCTUE ENTRE UNE CONFIGURATION EN BANDE
INCURVEE ET EN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE, QU'ELLE GARDE ACTUELLEMENT.
UNE ANALYSE DVORAK DE 3.0- PEUT ETRE FAITE EN BRISANT LES CONTRAINTES
DE DEBUT DE VIE. CELA LAISSE UNE ESTIMATION DE VENT DE L'ORDRE DE
40KT, LAISSANT SOUS ENTENDRE UNE INTENSIFICATION POTENTIELLE.

EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, FARAJI RESTE SOUS L'INFLUENCE
OPPOSEE DE DEUX CENTRES D'ACTION : LA DORSALE SUB-TROPICALE AU
SUD-SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME ET LA DORSALE EQUATORIALE LOCALISEE AU NORD
IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME. SOUS CETTE INFLUENCE, LA TRAJECTOIRE VA ETRE
ASSEZ ERRATIQUE OU PEU RAPIDE EN DIRECTION GLOBALE VERS LE SUD AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 36H. PAR LA SUITE, AVEC LE DECALAGE ET
L'AFFAIBLISSMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, FARAJI VA PRENDRE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST PLUS FRANCHE EN ACCELERANT. ENTRE LES
DIFFERENTS RUNS DES MODELES ET ENTRE LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES, IL
EXISTE UNE CERTAINE DIVERGENCE POUR LES PLUS LONGUES ECHEANCES. CETTE
INCERTITUDE SE TRADUIT PAR UN CONE ASSEZ LARGE A ECHEANCE DE 4 A 5
JOURS, QUE CE SOIT EN VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT MAIS AUSSI EN LATITUDE
AU MOMENT DE LA FIN DE TRAJECTOIRE ERRATIQUE.

EN CE QUI CONCERNE LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE, FARAJI SE SITUE
ACTUELLEMENT SOUS DES CONDITIONS DE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT QUI
FAIBLISSENT ET UNE ALIMENTATION HUMIDE BIEN DEFINIE DANS SA PARTIE
NORD. SOUS CES CONDITIONS, LA TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE DEVRAIT
POUVOIR S'INTENSIFIER REGULIEREMENT VOIRE RAPIDEMENT AU COURS DES 3 A
4 PROCHAINS JOURS. CECI L'AMENERA AU SEUIL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL VOIRE
PLUS AVANT QUE LA DYNAMIQUE D'ALTITUDE PLUS AU SUD INDUISE UNE
AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT ET UN DEBUT D'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC. CES
INGREDIENTS VONT LIMITER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME. ON NOTERA COMME POUR
LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, UNE CERTAINE DIVERGENCE ENTRE LES
DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES. LA PRESENTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE PRESENTE
DONC UN CARACTERE ASSEZ INCERTAIN A ECHEANCE DE 4 A 5 JOURS.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE PARTICULIER POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

>

2021-02-05 12:42


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/10/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 81.2 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/06 00 UTC: 13.7 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 150 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 100

24H: 2021/02/06 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 155 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/07 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65

48H: 2021/02/07 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 75

60H: 2021/02/08 00 UTC: 13.9 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 75

72H: 2021/02/08 12 UTC: 13.7 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/09 12 UTC: 14.0 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2021/02/10 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 280 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SW: 50 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

SUBJECT TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF MORE AND MORE PROPICES, SYSTEM
10 CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TO REACH THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
THRESHOLD. IT WAS NAMED FARAJI AT 11UTC BY THE MAURITIAN
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS FLUCTUATED BETWEEN A CURVED BAND AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST,
WHICH IT CURRENTLY MAINTAINS. A DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 3.0- CAN BE DONE
BY BREAKING THE EARLY LIFE CONSTRAINTS. THIS LEAVES A WIND ESTIMATE
OF AROUND 40KT, SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECASTING, FARAJI REMAINS UNDER THE OPPOSITE
INFLUENCE OF TWO CENTERS OF ACTION: THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED
IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. UNDER THIS INFLUENCE, THE TRACK WILL
BE RATHER ERRATIC OR SLOW IN A GLOBAL SOUTHWARD DIRECTION DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER, WITH THE SHIFT AND WEAKENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, FARAJI WILL TAKE A MORE DIRECT EASTWARD TRACK AND
ACCELERATE. BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT RUNS OF THE MODELS AND BETWEEN THE
DIFFERENT GUIDELINES, THERE IS A CERTAIN DIVERGENCE FOR THE LONGER
PERIODS OF TIME. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS TRANSLATED BY A RATHER WIDE ZONE
AT THE END OF 4 TO 5 DAYS, BOTH IN SPEED OF DISPLACEMENT BUT ALSO IN
LATITUDE AT THE END OF THE ERRATIC TRACK.

AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONCERNED, FARAJI IS CURRENTLY
UNDER WEAKENING WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS AND A WELL-DEFINED WET FEED IN
ITS NORTHERN PART. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, THE MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM SHOULD BE ABLE TO INTENSIFY STEADILY OR EVEN RAPIDLY OVER THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS WILL BRING IT TO THE THRESHOLD OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OR EVEN MORE BEFORE THE DYNAMICS OF ALTITUDE FURTHER SOUTH
INDUCE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND THE BEGINNING OF DRY AIR INTRUSION.
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. AS WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK FORECAST, THERE IS A CERTAIN DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE
DIFFERENT GUIDELINES. THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEREFORE
RATHER UNCERTAIN AND WILL TAKE 4 TO 5 DAYS TO COMPLETE.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR INHABITED LANDS.=

>

2021-02-05 12:11


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 051208
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 05/02/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 81.2 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 130 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/02/06 AT 00 UTC:
13.7 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 55 NM

24H, VALID 2021/02/06 AT 12 UTC:
14.1 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 15 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

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