Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BINA-21 in Fiji, Wallis and Futuna, Tonga from 30 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC to 01 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC

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Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BINA-21

in Fiji, Wallis and Futuna, Tonga

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

01/02 01:58 WTPS32PGTW010200

01/02 01:44 WTPS32PGTW010300

31/01 20:01 WTPS32PGTW312100

31/01 14:07 WTPS32PGTW311500

31/01 09:06 WTPS32PGTW310900

31/01 02:49 WTPS32PGTW310300

30/01 20:51 WTPS32PGTW302100

Original Message :

WTPS32 PGTW 010200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (BINA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (BINA) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 15.6S 177.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 177.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.4S 179.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 178.1E.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (BINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 159
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DETERIORATED OVER THE
PREVIOUS SIX HOURS, WITH WEAK FLARING CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE
ASSESSED CENTER. SATELLITE ANALYSIS DOES NOT REVEAL A WELL-DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), COMBINED WITH A LACK OF RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY, RESULTS IN A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT FOR
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE HEDGED TOWARDS THE ADT RAW T-NUMBER OF T2.6 36 KNOTS
BASED ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY TRANSLATE ALONG THE NORTHWEST-
SOUTHESAT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE EAST AND TC 15P TO THE
SOUTH, AND AFTER PASSING NEAR VANNA LEVU, IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 12. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 15 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNINGS
(WTPS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS32 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (BINA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (BINA) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 15.6S 177.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 177.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.4S 179.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 178.1E.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (BINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 159
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DETERIORATED OVER THE
PREVIOUS SIX HOURS, WITH WEAK FLARING CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE
ASSESSED CENTER. SATELLITE ANALYSIS DOES NOT REVEAL A WELL-DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), COMBINED WITH A LACK OF RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY, RESULTS IN A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT FOR
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE HEDGED TOWARDS THE ADT RAW T-NUMBER OF T2.6 36 KNOTS
BASED ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY TRANSLATE ALONG THE NORTHWEST-
SOUTHESAT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE EAST AND TC 15P TO THE
SOUTH, AND AFTER PASSING NEAR VANNA LEVU, IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 12. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 15 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNINGS
(WTPS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS32 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (BINA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (BINA) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 176.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 176.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.7S 178.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 19.9S 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.3S 177.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 176.7E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (BINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY DISORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH
ELONGATED, FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 311614Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVED SOMEWHAT
HELPFUL IN CONFINING THE POSITION BUT LENT ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE
TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE, SET ON THE LOWER END OF AN AVERAGE OF MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5-T4.0 (PGTW, KNES
RESPECTIVELY), AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.9 AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 42
KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS MARGINAL,
WITH MODERATE (20-25 KTS) WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VWS, RELATIVELY WEAK
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30C) SSTS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL QUICLY
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS HOWEVER, AS VWS RAPIDLY INCREASES
TO ABOVE 30 KTS AND THE OUTFLOW FROM TC 15P BEGINS TO DISRUPT THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SURROUNDING TC 16P. TC 16P IS CURRENTLY
APPROXIMATELY 400NM TO NORTH-NORTHWEST OF TC 15P AND APPEARS TO HAVE
BEEN CAPTURED IN THE BROAD SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD, SIGNALING THE
START OF BINARY INTERACTION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE EAST
AND THE EASTERN SIDE OF TC 15P. IT IS LIKELY THAT DUE TO INCREASING
VWS AFTER TAU 24 THAT TC 16P WILL BECOME FULLY EXPOSED, AND THEN
CEASE TO BE A DISTINCT TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MERGES WITH TC 15P BY
TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
SCENARIO BUT SHOWS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF THE SPEED OF
ADVANCE AND THE EXACT NATURE OF THE BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 15P.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AND LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IN LIGHT OF THE HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN NATURE OF THE BINARY INTERACTION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNINGS
(WTPS33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS32 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 13.4S 175.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 175.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.6S 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.3S 179.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 21.0S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 23.7S 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 175.7E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
340 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 310924Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT WEAKENING DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING OVER AND OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. HOWEVER, A 311018Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED CENTER,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, WITH 40-45
KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND THE ASCAT-C DATA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 12, HOWEVER, CONDITIONS
WILL DEGRADE RAPIDLY AFTER THIS TIME DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH TC 15P. TC 16P IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO
BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 15P, WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT
418NM SSE. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 12
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE POSITIONED
TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 12, TC 16P WILL ACCELERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TC 15P. BY TAU
36, TC 16P WILL APPROACH TC 15P WITHIN ABOUT 150NM AS IT RAPIDLY
WEAKENS. BY TAU 48, TC 16P WILL DISSIPATE AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO
TC 15P. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
IN LIGHT OF THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN NATURE OF THE BINARY INTERACTION,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P
(ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS32 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 12.1S 174.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 174.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.3S 177.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.3S 179.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 20.4S 179.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 22.8S 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 175.0E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
431 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER
AND OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 310504Z
SSMIS 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WEST AND NORTH
QUADRANTS. THIS SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 12, HOWEVER, CONDITIONS
WILL DEGRADE RAPIDLY AFTER THIS TIME DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH TC 15P. TC 16P IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO
DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH TC 15P, WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ABOUT 461NM SSE. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
TAU 12 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 12, TC 16P WILL
ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TC
15P. BY TAU 36, TC 16P WILL APPROACH TC 15P WITHIN ABOUT 140NM AS IT
RAPIDLY WEAKENS. BY TAU 48, TC 16P WILL DISSIPATE AND BECOME
ABSORBED INTO TC 15P. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. IN LIGHT OF THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN NATURE OF THE BINARY
INTERACTION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
15P (ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS32 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 11.9S 172.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 172.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 13.0S 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.1S 178.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.7S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.6S 178.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.3S 175.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 173.5E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
497 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY WELL DEFINED
BANDING FEATURES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF FLARING CONVECTION NEAR
THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 302230Z GMI
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED WHAT APPEARED TO BE A LARGE MICROWAVE
EYE-LIKE FEATURE WITH A CORE DEFINED BY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION
SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS, AND WHICH LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40
KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) BASED ON
AND ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.7 (39 KTS), A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 40 KTS AND A
302117Z ASCAT-A SCATTEROMETER PASS WHICH INDICATED A FEW 40 KNOT
WIND BARBS NEAR THE CENTER ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS, WEAK POLEWARD AND STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SSTS. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE NER TO THE
STR CENTERED TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, LEADING TO A SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 24. AFTER CROSSING OVER THE EASTERN
FIJIAN ISLANDS BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
TC 15P, ULTIMATELY BECOMING ABSORBED BY TC 15P BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND
72. THE GENERAL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, WITH A PEAK OF 45
KTS EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24. INCREASING VWS AND
CONVERGENT FLOW FROM THE OUTFLOW OF TC 15P WILL COMBINE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEGINNING AT TAU 36. TC 16P IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AS A DISTINCT TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MERGES WTIH TC 15P NO
LATER THAN TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD CROSS-TRACK
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT DISPLAYS RELATIVELY HIGH
ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY AS MODELS ARE STRUGGLING SOMEWHAT WITH THE
BINARY INTERACTION AND MERGER OF THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE JTWC FORECAST
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK, AND LIES JUST
TO THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IN
LIGHT OF THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN NATURE OF THE BINARY INTERACTION,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//

>

Original Message :

WTPS32 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301651JAN2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301951JAN2021//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 11.9S 171.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 171.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 12.4S 174.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.3S 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.9S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 19.8S 178.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.5S 175.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 172.2E.
30JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
392 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED
EASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO AREAS OF COMPACT DEEP
CONVECTION, ONE NEAR THE ASSESSED CENTER AND THE OTHER DISPLACED TO
THE NORTH, WITH LOW-LEVEL BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN
CONVECTIVE AREA. A FORTUITOUS 301406Z AMSR2 COLOR ENHANCED 36GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH A CYAN RING AND STRONG CONVECTION BANDS TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTH. HOWEVER DUE TO THE EXTENDED TIME SINCE THE AMSR2 PASS AND THE
LACK OF A CLEAR CENTER IN THE EIR, THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS,
HIGHER THAN THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS) AND
IN AGREEMENT WITH A KNES ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) AND THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE OF THE COMPACT SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
THE SYSTEM LIES IN A MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE REGION CHARACTERIZED BY
WARM (30-31C) SSTS, LOW (5-10 KT) VWS AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TC 16P IS TRACKING QUICKLY TOWARDS THE EAST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
CENTERED TO THE NORTH. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM SHIFTS TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE
EAST. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AND
BECOME CAPTURED BY TC 15P SOUTH OF FIJI, ULTIMATELY BECOMING
ABSORBED BY TC 15P BY TAU 72. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM
SHOULD REMAIN IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, ALLOWING FOR A
SHORT BURST OF INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 45 KTS BY TAU 24.
THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VWS AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT EMANATING FROM THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH TC 15P. AS THE SYSTEM CLOSES AND MERGES WITH TC 15P, THE
COMBINATION OF THE CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, COOLER SSTS AND DISRUPTION
OF THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION AS A DISTINCT
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO AT LEAST THROUGH TAU 36 WITH
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH TC
15P. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MULT-
MODEL CONSENSUS IN LIGHT OF RECENT MOTION THOUGH TAU 36, THEN VERY
NEAR THE CONSENSUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN NATURE OF THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH
TC 15P, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
15P (ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS22 PGTW 301700).//
NNNN

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